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2022-04-11

$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Cry[Facepalm]

2022-02-03

NIO is still recommended?

3 Best Battery Stocks to Charge Up Your Portfolio

2022-01-28

$SEA LTD(SE)$Omg drop none stop.

2022-01-24

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$[Facepalm]

2022-01-24

Means not to buy all dips

Morgan Stanley’s Slimmon Warns Against Buying Growth-Stock Dip

2022-01-21

Singtel?!!!

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-21

Apple [Angry]

Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns

2021-06-21

Good?

NIO Is Winning

2021-06-21

So apple shares is not a buy

Apple: Winter Is Coming

2021-06-16

Buy

NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap

2021-05-07

So is it a buy?

Tesla: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Cry[Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Cry[Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Cry[Facepalm]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/736c931934cddf984f945e809becddfb","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014323585","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091288868,"gmtCreate":1643874404025,"gmtModify":1676533866545,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NIO is still recommended?","listText":"NIO is still recommended?","text":"NIO is still recommended?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091288868","repostId":"1185754415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185754415","pubTimestamp":1643856030,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185754415?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-03 10:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Best Battery Stocks to Charge Up Your Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185754415","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is in full swing and the critical component driving it forward ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is in full swing and the critical component driving it forward is batteries – and battery stocks.</p><p>The market for the batteries that power EVs is red-hot as the switch from gasoline-powered vehicles surges ahead. According to <i>Markets and Research</i>,the EV battery market is expected to reach$175.11 billion by 2028 for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%.</p><p>And as automakers from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> ramp up their EV production and introduce new models of fully electric cars, trucks and SUVs, the demand for batteries is only expected to intensify.</p><p>The good news for investors is that the current market downturn has made many electric vehicle stocks down right cheap to buy. Here are three of the best battery stocks to charge up your portfolio.</p><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">ChargePoint Holdings Inc.</a> </li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle</a> </li><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> </li></ul><p>Best Battery Stocks: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHPT\">ChargePoint Holdings Inc.</a></p><p>Campbell, California-based ChargePoint just got a big jolt of electricity after <b>JPMorgan Chase</b>(NYSE:<b><u>JPM</u></b>)upgraded the company’s stockto “outperform” from “neutral,” along with a $20 price target.</p><p>CHPT stock shot up 10% on the day that JPMorgan made the upgrade, noting in its assessment that ChargePoint has a huge growth opportunity ahead of it and that investors are overly concerned about profits in the near-term for the company that operates the biggest network of electric vehicle battery charging stations in the world.</p><p>“We think investors may be too pessimistic on ChargePoint’s expenses and path to profitability,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson.</p><p>The upgrade by JPMorgan was the best news that ChargePoint and its shareholders received since the company went public in March 2021 via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal. In the past six months, CHPT stock is down 41%. And that’s after the 10% jump following the positive note from JPMorgan. In the last month, ChargePoint’s stock has declined 27%.</p><p>However, given its leading market position in the U.S., aggressive expansion in Europe, and presence in 14 countries worldwide, there is still reason to be bullish on the long-term prospects for ChargePoint and its network of EV charging stations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALB\">Albemarle</a></p><p>Charlotte, North Carolina-based Albemarle is the largest provider of lithium for electric vehicle batteries, and business is booming. The specialty chemicals company controls over half of the world’s lithium and lithium storage products, which are in high demand as established automakers and start-ups race to rollout electric vehicles and leave the combustion engine behind.</p><p>Lithium prices last yearjumped nearly 500%higher as global electric vehicle sales rose 160%. And lithium production is forecast tomore than tripleto more than 1.1 million tons by 2025 from 300,000 tons in 2020.</p><p>Albemarle is taking full advantage of thehuge demandfor the lithium used in electric vehicle batteries. The company announced that it will spend $1.5 billion over the next five years on new lithium projects in Nevada, Australia and China.</p><p>As long as the company is able to continue growing and maintain its global lead, Albemarle should continue rewarding shareholders. ALB stock has been pulled down 5% year to date amid broader market volatility. However, the share price is still up 35% over the past 12 months. Expect more gains going forward.</p><p>Best Battery Stocks: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a></p><p>Shanghai, China-based Nio does not just make electric vehicles. It also makes the batteries that go into its cars and has pioneered a “battery as a service” (BaaS) model that is proving to be very popular in the Asian nation of 1.4 billion people.</p><p>The model sees owners of Nio vehicles pull into designated service stations to switch out their drained batteries for freshly charged ones, in the same way that consumers swap their empty barbecue propane tanks for filled ones at $<b>Costco</b>(<b><u>COST</u></b>)$. The service saves Nio customers from having to buy and install expensive battery charging systems in their homes. And the monthly subscription model provides Nio with a steady income stream.</p><p>Nio is now taking its BaaS model to Europe, where it recently expanded. And while Nio stock has been badly beaten down over the past year, many analysts say the shares are a buy now that they recently traded at a 52-week lowof just over $20 a share. NIO stock is down 22% year-to-date and has declined an eye-watering 57% in the past 12 months. However, themedian price targeton the company’s shares among 25 Wall Street analysts who cover the company is $58.22.</p><p>Based on the price targets, the view is clearly that the sell-off in Nio stock has been overdone.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Best Battery Stocks to Charge Up Your Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Best Battery Stocks to Charge Up Your Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-03 10:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/02/3-best-battery-stocks-to-charge-up-your-portfolio/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is in full swing and the critical component driving it forward is batteries – and battery stocks.The market for the batteries that power EVs is red-hot as the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/3-best-battery-stocks-to-charge-up-your-portfolio/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc.","NIO":"蔚来","ALB":"美国雅保"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/02/3-best-battery-stocks-to-charge-up-your-portfolio/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185754415","content_text":"The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is in full swing and the critical component driving it forward is batteries – and battery stocks.The market for the batteries that power EVs is red-hot as the switch from gasoline-powered vehicles surges ahead. According to Markets and Research,the EV battery market is expected to reach$175.11 billion by 2028 for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26%.And as automakers from Ford to Tesla Motors ramp up their EV production and introduce new models of fully electric cars, trucks and SUVs, the demand for batteries is only expected to intensify.The good news for investors is that the current market downturn has made many electric vehicle stocks down right cheap to buy. Here are three of the best battery stocks to charge up your portfolio.ChargePoint Holdings Inc. Albemarle NIO Inc. Best Battery Stocks: ChargePoint Holdings Inc.Campbell, California-based ChargePoint just got a big jolt of electricity after JPMorgan Chase(NYSE:JPM)upgraded the company’s stockto “outperform” from “neutral,” along with a $20 price target.CHPT stock shot up 10% on the day that JPMorgan made the upgrade, noting in its assessment that ChargePoint has a huge growth opportunity ahead of it and that investors are overly concerned about profits in the near-term for the company that operates the biggest network of electric vehicle battery charging stations in the world.“We think investors may be too pessimistic on ChargePoint’s expenses and path to profitability,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson.The upgrade by JPMorgan was the best news that ChargePoint and its shareholders received since the company went public in March 2021 via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal. In the past six months, CHPT stock is down 41%. And that’s after the 10% jump following the positive note from JPMorgan. In the last month, ChargePoint’s stock has declined 27%.However, given its leading market position in the U.S., aggressive expansion in Europe, and presence in 14 countries worldwide, there is still reason to be bullish on the long-term prospects for ChargePoint and its network of EV charging stations.AlbemarleCharlotte, North Carolina-based Albemarle is the largest provider of lithium for electric vehicle batteries, and business is booming. The specialty chemicals company controls over half of the world’s lithium and lithium storage products, which are in high demand as established automakers and start-ups race to rollout electric vehicles and leave the combustion engine behind.Lithium prices last yearjumped nearly 500%higher as global electric vehicle sales rose 160%. And lithium production is forecast tomore than tripleto more than 1.1 million tons by 2025 from 300,000 tons in 2020.Albemarle is taking full advantage of thehuge demandfor the lithium used in electric vehicle batteries. The company announced that it will spend $1.5 billion over the next five years on new lithium projects in Nevada, Australia and China.As long as the company is able to continue growing and maintain its global lead, Albemarle should continue rewarding shareholders. ALB stock has been pulled down 5% year to date amid broader market volatility. However, the share price is still up 35% over the past 12 months. Expect more gains going forward.Best Battery Stocks: NIO Inc.Shanghai, China-based Nio does not just make electric vehicles. It also makes the batteries that go into its cars and has pioneered a “battery as a service” (BaaS) model that is proving to be very popular in the Asian nation of 1.4 billion people.The model sees owners of Nio vehicles pull into designated service stations to switch out their drained batteries for freshly charged ones, in the same way that consumers swap their empty barbecue propane tanks for filled ones at $Costco(COST)$. The service saves Nio customers from having to buy and install expensive battery charging systems in their homes. And the monthly subscription model provides Nio with a steady income stream.Nio is now taking its BaaS model to Europe, where it recently expanded. And while Nio stock has been badly beaten down over the past year, many analysts say the shares are a buy now that they recently traded at a 52-week lowof just over $20 a share. NIO stock is down 22% year-to-date and has declined an eye-watering 57% in the past 12 months. However, themedian price targeton the company’s shares among 25 Wall Street analysts who cover the company is $58.22.Based on the price targets, the view is clearly that the sell-off in Nio stock has been overdone.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9099856349,"gmtCreate":1643333718750,"gmtModify":1676533806625,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>Omg drop none stop.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>Omg drop none stop.&nbsp;","text":"$SEA LTD(SE)$Omg drop none stop.","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3106e425270077c3cd9d463d54ca9ec8","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099856349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007719582,"gmtCreate":1643004055060,"gmtModify":1676533764253,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>[Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>[Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$[Facepalm]","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/2cafac5f9bb427a941a9cc60293467b7","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007719582","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007440757,"gmtCreate":1642989818573,"gmtModify":1676533762747,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Means not to buy all dips","listText":"Means not to buy all dips","text":"Means not to buy all dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007440757","repostId":"1110124323","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110124323","pubTimestamp":1642980341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110124323?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 07:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley’s Slimmon Warns Against Buying Growth-Stock Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110124323","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"‘Once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time,’ manager saysWhen bubble breaks, it’s not V bottom as ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>‘Once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time,’ manager says</li><li>When bubble breaks, it’s not V bottom as many look to get out</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87af342479b463778c4eef81e3cc63a7\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"2100\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Andrew Slimmon, Source: Morgan StanleySource: Bloomberg</span></p><p>Investors should avoid the temptation to buy the dips in expensive high-growth stocks because “once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time,” according to Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.</p><p>Slimmon joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what he’s investing in these days. He also explains how the MSIF U.S. Core Portfolio fund he co-manages beat the S&amp;P 500 with a 36% gain in 2021. Below are the condensed and lightly edited highlights of the conversation. </p><p>Q. You wrote to us before the show, saying “avoid the temptation to step in and buy into the selloff in high-growth stocks.” You said, “my experience is: Once the fever breaks, it’s done for quite a while.” Historically, is there any precedent you could point to? Is it too simple to point to the dot-com bubble as a fair comparison?</p><p>A. So first of all, I just want to make sure it’s understood: I’m not a value manager, or a growth manager. I’m not trying to, you know, spin what works or what my investment philosophy is at all times. I’m just looking at what the fat pitch is. And as it pertains to this group, the reason why I believe once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time, is if you wind the clock back, if you look at some of these uber-growth funds back to where they were in early fall of 2020, that means a lot of people haven’t made money, right? Because they chased into them after they peaked.</p><p>And the reason why the dot-com analogy is correct is that that means that every time they start to go up, there’s someone that can get out even. And so there’s tremendous selling resistance at higher levels because so many people have lost money. And that to me is very similar to the dot-com bubble, and other bubbles. Once a very speculative bubble breaks, it’s not a V bottom because there’s too many people looking to get out.</p><p>Q. So what cohort would you look at? Could you see the Nasdaq 100 going down as much as it did then, or more like a Cathie Wood-type of fund?</p><p>A. That’s the difference to 2000. In 2000, the Nasdaq had obscene prices. You also had some of these very big-cap tech stocks trading at triple-digit multiples. And when I look at these uber-growth stocks, they’re expensive as they were in 2000, but the main tech stocks, the Nasdaq 100, the big stocks, they’re not as expensive. So I don’t think the (comparison to the) Nasdaq break of 2000 is quite accurate because I don’t think the really big tech stocks are as vulnerable.</p><p>Q. One thing I always think about along these lines is that there’s something in human nature that is always going to make that instinct to chase the high flyers come back at some point.</p><p>A. Greed.</p><p>Q. Yeah, right. As simple as that. But what are the conditions you would look for to be in place to bring that trade back?</p><p>A. Well, I think it’s first seller exhaustion, where stocks stop going down on bad news because there’s no one left to sell them. And I’m just not sure we’re there yet. I haven’t seen big capitulation. I mean, the stocks are down a lot, but there hasn’t been big capitulation in these stocks. The other way I think about it is when no one believes that they can buy the dip anymore. That’s when the bottom happens, right? When people say, “I don’t wanna touch them. These are uninvestible,” that’s when I get interested. But when people are saying, “Hey, well, what do you think?” Because the memory of making a lot of money is too recent and that leads people to try to bottom fish.</p><p>I’ve been in this business a long time. Human behavior doesn’t change. And so when this type of bubble breaks, you get counter-trend rallies and they go up a little bit and then they go down low and then they go up and they go down until people say, “Don’t ask me one more thing about it. I don’t want to talk about it. Moving on.” And then I go, “Oh, that’s kind of interesting.” That means maybe they’re getting to a bottom.</p><p>Q. Your fund was up 36% last year. Everybody at home is wondering what exactly you might be favoring this year and how they should be positioning as the year unfolds?</p><p>A. The reason why we had a good year last year is simply that we played the playbook. The playbook is that when you’re coming out of recessions, cyclical stocks do well, right? Because in recessions people sell anything that’s economically sensitive and they hold on to things that they perceive as not economically sensitive. So the spread between the cyclical stocks and the non-cyclical stocks, it’s extreme. And boy oh boy did it really get extreme. So it was kind of a fat pitch to own financials and energy stocks in 2021. And so that worked. The other thing that really worked is just listening to companies and follow earnings. Now, just to be clear, earnings growth doesn’t drive stock prices, it’s surprises, right? A stock price embeds all future expectations. So if companies are doing better than what is expected, they go up ...</p><p>So going into this year, I think we’re in an environment where central bank policy is willing to accept higher levels of inflation for faster growth that will lead to more wage growth. Now right now, the Fed is starting to pivot a little bit because real wages aren’t going up. So I think they’re going to make a move to bring down inflation, but I think we’re moving into an environment where we’re going to have higher growth at the expense of higher inflation. And that’s an environment where you want to own some value stocks. Again, I’m not saying throw away all your growth stocks to buy all value because I believe in technology long term. But I do think that we’ve come out of a decade of slow growth and we’re moving into a faster-growth environment. And I think you want to own a few more value stocks. And I don’t think this year will be any different than last year.</p><p>Q. You sent us a list of some stocks that you really like: Alphabet, Microsoft and Danaher. Could you walk us through why you like these picks in particular?</p><p>A. Our biggest overweights are financials, REITs and energy stocks. The “however” of that is those stocks are red-hot right now. Financials and energy have done really well this year. So I think we’re into an environment where you have to be careful going into earning season, given how strong they’ve been. And so I’m just a little bit wary of owning those stocks or buying those stocks right here. And again, those growth stocks haven’t done as well. Microsoft, Google, Danaher, they haven’t done as well because they’re not hot stocks right now. And those companies are reporting very good earnings.</p><p>Q. You’re bullish on Microsoft, you have it in both the international and the U.S. core fund. Curious what you think of this Activision Blizzard takeover this week? And what does that signal to you?</p><p>A. It’s a sign that companies are flush with cash, which, oh, by the way, what’s the ROI on cash right now? So I think it’s going to be a -- I’m no investment banker -- but I think it’s going to be a big year for M&amp;A because companies have very strong balance sheets and they got a lot of cash on hand and they’re going to be looking for bolt-on acquisitions. So to the extent that things are immediately accretive, I think you’re going to see companies jump at it.</p><p>And not a lot of people talk about that, but I really think that the story is that corporate fundamentals are not getting the press they deserve. I really do. We talk about the Fed a lot and geopolitical risk, but I just don’t think what’s happening in corporate America gets enough positive press.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley’s Slimmon Warns Against Buying Growth-Stock Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley’s Slimmon Warns Against Buying Growth-Stock Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 07:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-22/morgan-stanley-s-slimmon-warns-against-buying-growth-stock-dip><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>‘Once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time,’ manager saysWhen bubble breaks, it’s not V bottom as many look to get outAndrew Slimmon, Source: Morgan StanleySource: BloombergInvestors should avoid ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-22/morgan-stanley-s-slimmon-warns-against-buying-growth-stock-dip\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-22/morgan-stanley-s-slimmon-warns-against-buying-growth-stock-dip","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110124323","content_text":"‘Once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time,’ manager saysWhen bubble breaks, it’s not V bottom as many look to get outAndrew Slimmon, Source: Morgan StanleySource: BloombergInvestors should avoid the temptation to buy the dips in expensive high-growth stocks because “once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time,” according to Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Slimmon joined the “What Goes Up” podcast to discuss what he’s investing in these days. He also explains how the MSIF U.S. Core Portfolio fund he co-manages beat the S&P 500 with a 36% gain in 2021. Below are the condensed and lightly edited highlights of the conversation. Q. You wrote to us before the show, saying “avoid the temptation to step in and buy into the selloff in high-growth stocks.” You said, “my experience is: Once the fever breaks, it’s done for quite a while.” Historically, is there any precedent you could point to? Is it too simple to point to the dot-com bubble as a fair comparison?A. So first of all, I just want to make sure it’s understood: I’m not a value manager, or a growth manager. I’m not trying to, you know, spin what works or what my investment philosophy is at all times. I’m just looking at what the fat pitch is. And as it pertains to this group, the reason why I believe once the fever breaks, it lasts a long time, is if you wind the clock back, if you look at some of these uber-growth funds back to where they were in early fall of 2020, that means a lot of people haven’t made money, right? Because they chased into them after they peaked.And the reason why the dot-com analogy is correct is that that means that every time they start to go up, there’s someone that can get out even. And so there’s tremendous selling resistance at higher levels because so many people have lost money. And that to me is very similar to the dot-com bubble, and other bubbles. Once a very speculative bubble breaks, it’s not a V bottom because there’s too many people looking to get out.Q. So what cohort would you look at? Could you see the Nasdaq 100 going down as much as it did then, or more like a Cathie Wood-type of fund?A. That’s the difference to 2000. In 2000, the Nasdaq had obscene prices. You also had some of these very big-cap tech stocks trading at triple-digit multiples. And when I look at these uber-growth stocks, they’re expensive as they were in 2000, but the main tech stocks, the Nasdaq 100, the big stocks, they’re not as expensive. So I don’t think the (comparison to the) Nasdaq break of 2000 is quite accurate because I don’t think the really big tech stocks are as vulnerable.Q. One thing I always think about along these lines is that there’s something in human nature that is always going to make that instinct to chase the high flyers come back at some point.A. Greed.Q. Yeah, right. As simple as that. But what are the conditions you would look for to be in place to bring that trade back?A. Well, I think it’s first seller exhaustion, where stocks stop going down on bad news because there’s no one left to sell them. And I’m just not sure we’re there yet. I haven’t seen big capitulation. I mean, the stocks are down a lot, but there hasn’t been big capitulation in these stocks. The other way I think about it is when no one believes that they can buy the dip anymore. That’s when the bottom happens, right? When people say, “I don’t wanna touch them. These are uninvestible,” that’s when I get interested. But when people are saying, “Hey, well, what do you think?” Because the memory of making a lot of money is too recent and that leads people to try to bottom fish.I’ve been in this business a long time. Human behavior doesn’t change. And so when this type of bubble breaks, you get counter-trend rallies and they go up a little bit and then they go down low and then they go up and they go down until people say, “Don’t ask me one more thing about it. I don’t want to talk about it. Moving on.” And then I go, “Oh, that’s kind of interesting.” That means maybe they’re getting to a bottom.Q. Your fund was up 36% last year. Everybody at home is wondering what exactly you might be favoring this year and how they should be positioning as the year unfolds?A. The reason why we had a good year last year is simply that we played the playbook. The playbook is that when you’re coming out of recessions, cyclical stocks do well, right? Because in recessions people sell anything that’s economically sensitive and they hold on to things that they perceive as not economically sensitive. So the spread between the cyclical stocks and the non-cyclical stocks, it’s extreme. And boy oh boy did it really get extreme. So it was kind of a fat pitch to own financials and energy stocks in 2021. And so that worked. The other thing that really worked is just listening to companies and follow earnings. Now, just to be clear, earnings growth doesn’t drive stock prices, it’s surprises, right? A stock price embeds all future expectations. So if companies are doing better than what is expected, they go up ...So going into this year, I think we’re in an environment where central bank policy is willing to accept higher levels of inflation for faster growth that will lead to more wage growth. Now right now, the Fed is starting to pivot a little bit because real wages aren’t going up. So I think they’re going to make a move to bring down inflation, but I think we’re moving into an environment where we’re going to have higher growth at the expense of higher inflation. And that’s an environment where you want to own some value stocks. Again, I’m not saying throw away all your growth stocks to buy all value because I believe in technology long term. But I do think that we’ve come out of a decade of slow growth and we’re moving into a faster-growth environment. And I think you want to own a few more value stocks. And I don’t think this year will be any different than last year.Q. You sent us a list of some stocks that you really like: Alphabet, Microsoft and Danaher. Could you walk us through why you like these picks in particular?A. Our biggest overweights are financials, REITs and energy stocks. The “however” of that is those stocks are red-hot right now. Financials and energy have done really well this year. So I think we’re into an environment where you have to be careful going into earning season, given how strong they’ve been. And so I’m just a little bit wary of owning those stocks or buying those stocks right here. And again, those growth stocks haven’t done as well. Microsoft, Google, Danaher, they haven’t done as well because they’re not hot stocks right now. And those companies are reporting very good earnings.Q. You’re bullish on Microsoft, you have it in both the international and the U.S. core fund. Curious what you think of this Activision Blizzard takeover this week? And what does that signal to you?A. It’s a sign that companies are flush with cash, which, oh, by the way, what’s the ROI on cash right now? So I think it’s going to be a -- I’m no investment banker -- but I think it’s going to be a big year for M&A because companies have very strong balance sheets and they got a lot of cash on hand and they’re going to be looking for bolt-on acquisitions. So to the extent that things are immediately accretive, I think you’re going to see companies jump at it.And not a lot of people talk about that, but I really think that the story is that corporate fundamentals are not getting the press they deserve. I really do. We talk about the Fed a lot and geopolitical risk, but I just don’t think what’s happening in corporate America gets enough positive press.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007902541,"gmtCreate":1642728614751,"gmtModify":1676533740882,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Singtel?!!!","listText":"Singtel?!!!","text":"Singtel?!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007902541","repostId":"1137884935","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167821909,"gmtCreate":1624260414601,"gmtModify":1703831809535,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple [Angry]&nbsp;","listText":"Apple [Angry]&nbsp;","text":"Apple [Angry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167821909","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183124175","pubTimestamp":1624151620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183124175?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183124175","media":"cnbc","summary":"As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.Growth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the market. However, these names are typically riskier and more volatile than the average stock.Adam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist and founder of Trivariate Research, said the time is right to buy growth shares, but investors should be cautious of a f","content":"<div>\n<p>As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQ":"Block","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","MCHP":"微芯科技"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1183124175","content_text":"As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the market. However, these names are typically riskier and more volatile than the average stock.\nAdam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist and founder of Trivariate Research, said the time is right to buy growth shares, but investors should be cautious of a few.\n“We think that portfolio managers should be buying growth stocks again, focusing on positive free cash flow and margin expansion, not earnings-based valuation,” Parker said in a note released Wednesday.\nTrivariate Research used a number of criteria to identify risky stocks, including low or negative correlation to inflation, high correlation to the economic reopening and high levels of company insiders selling their shares. The research firm then identified the eight riskiest names based on those measures.\n“Our view is that these are among the riskiest stocks to own today, so investors who own these names should have disproportionate upside to their base cases to compensate them for these risks,” Parker said.\nTake a look at five of the riskiest technology stocks, according to Trivariate.\nRISKIEST TECH STOCKS, ACCORDING TO TRIVARIATE\n\n\n\nTICKER\nCOMPANY\nPRICE\n%CHANGE\n\n\n\n\nMCHP\nMicrochip Technology Inc\n145.62\n-3.0686\n\n\nTWLO\nTwilio Inc\n367.61\n1.84\n\n\nSQ\nSquare Inc\n237.05\n0.39\n\n\nNVDA\nNVIDIA Corp\n745.55\n-0.0992\n\n\nAAPL\nApple Inc\n130.46\n-1.0092\n\n\n\nApple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks. The research firm identifies Apple as one of the stocks with the most negative correlation to inflation. Trivariate predicts that if bond yields rise or if fears of inflation continue, shares of Apple will underperform the market.\nNvidiaalso makes the list of risky tech stocks. Trivariate found the semiconductor stock has one of the most asymmetric beta — meaning the stock is consistently more volatile than the broader market during a market pullback compared with typical times.\nTrivariate also named payments companySquare, cloud communications platformTwilioand semiconductor manufacturerMicrochip Technologyamong the riskiest technology stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167829602,"gmtCreate":1624260303906,"gmtModify":1703831807114,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good?","listText":"Good?","text":"Good?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167829602","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167829088,"gmtCreate":1624260213444,"gmtModify":1703831806307,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So apple shares is not a buy","listText":"So apple shares is not a buy","text":"So apple shares is not a buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167829088","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169909436,"gmtCreate":1623810913525,"gmtModify":1703820196837,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169909436","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146386859","pubTimestamp":1623417074,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146386859?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146386859","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly spec","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.</li>\n <li>Despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.</li>\n <li>As the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>NIO(NYSE:NIO)is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China. It has been constantly increasing its deliveries every quarter, its revenues have been growing at a triple-digit rate in recent years, and despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). While NIO's stock has depreciated last month, there's every reason to believe that its growth story is far from over, as the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years and the penetration of electric vehicles on its roads is only going to increase. Considering this, the company has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the long run.</p>\n<p><b>Dominating the Chinese Market</b></p>\n<p>Founded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly specializes in the development of luxurious electric SUVs and just likeXPeng(XPEV), it manufactures and sells its cars online and through its showrooms across China. In addition, NIO also offers various energy-related solutions such as home charging stations, mobile charging services, and others to its customers.</p>\n<p>In recent years, the company has been aggressively growing, as the deliveries of its cars have been steadily increasing quarter after quarter, which led to the appreciation of its stock. However, due to the overall market selloff last month, NIO's stock along with stocks of other EV manufacturers such as XPeng, Tesla, and Li Auto (LI) evaporated most of its YTD gains and are currently underperforming the S&amp;P 500 Index.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23b2ed509a529a876c423f3e9426be3f\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Chart: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>Despite this, there's every reason to believe that NIO's stock will recover, as the company's successful performance in Q1 shows that its growth story is far from over. InQ1alone NIO beat the Street expectations by $160 million and generated $1.22 billion in revenues, which represents an increase of 481.8% Y/Y. In addition, the company's gross profit was $237.3 million, while its vehicle margin was 21.2% against -7.4% a year ago. During the period, NIO has also improved its bottom-line performance, as its net loss was only $68.8 million, and despite the chip shortages and the Chinese New Year its deliveries have also increased by 422.7% Y/Y and by 15.6% Q/Q to 20,060.</p>\n<p>One of the best things about NIO is that it already has a dominant position in the Chinese EV industry and it also has a solid balance sheet, as its cash reserves at the end of Q1stoodat $7.2 billion, while it had only $1.59 billion in long-term debt. As a result, it can easily reinvest its resources back into the business to drive growth and establish an even stronger foothold in its home market without worrying too much about the current losses.</p>\n<p>On top of that, while some might say that by trading at a price-to-salesratioof ~13x NIO is overvalued, the reality is that its momentum is not slowing down and there's every reason to believe that the growth story is far from over. Considering that even at the market cap of ~$70 billion NIO still trades below the Streetconsensusprice of $59.24 per share, it's safe to assume that the upside is still there, especially since the current forecasts suggest that the company will increase its revenues from $2.49 billion in FY20 to $8.81 billion in FY22.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71905e5a90565b6a7e8864b3f6b0c226\" tg-width=\"883\" tg-height=\"382\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Seeking Alpha</i></p>\n<p>At this stage, the major competitor of NIO's flagship SUVES8is Tesla's Model X. However, there are several reasons to believe that the ES8 is a more attractive car in comparison to the Model X, and as a result, NIO has all the opportunities to outsell its competitor in China in the long run. First of all, the ES8 has more legroom and headroom than the Model X, it also has a luxurious interior, and it comes with three different battery packages that could last from 415 kilometers to 580 kilometers on a single charge.</p>\n<p>All of the ES8 SUVs include a proprietary operating system, have advanced navigation software, and most importantly cost ~$70,000 per vehicle in China, which is below the cost of Tesla's Model X, which comes at a price tag of ~$110,000 per vehicle in the region. We believe that this pricing advantage will undoubtedly help NIO to outsell Tesla in the SUV segment, especially since its cars now could bepurchasedat a discount thanks to the new Chinese subsidy program.</p>\n<p>Another uniqueness of NIO is its battery as a service business model, which allows its customers to swap their batteries in various swapping stations around China if they don't want to charge their cars or are in a hurry. After recently deploying the second version of its Power Swap stations, the swapping of batteries is now done in under three minutes, which is the same as refueling a traditional ICE car, and a single station now could perform up to 312 battery swaps in a single day. NIO now has a network of charging stations across all of China and if the solid-state batteries won't be available by the end of the decade at scale, then the idea of swapping batteries on the go will remain a viable business model in the long run.</p>\n<p>Going forward, NIO plans to accelerate its deliveries this month in order to meet its Q2 goal of delivering 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, which represents a growth of 103% Y/Y to 113% Y/Y and plans to generate $1.24 to $1.29 billion in revenues during the period. Despite the semiconductor shortages, NIO already managed to increase its deliveries in April and May to 7,102 vehicles and 6,711 vehicles, respectively, which represents a growth of 125% Y/Y and 95.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, NIO is also on track to deliver 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year.</p>\n<p>Considering this, there's every reason to believe that NIO will continue to be a dominant player in the Chinese EV market and a leader of the luxury EV segment in the region. While the company doesn't have an infrastructure outside China, we don't think that's a downside at all since China is the biggest EV market in the world that's constantly growing and NIO has better chances of creating shareholder value there than abroad. For that reason, we believe that NIO's growth story is far from over and it's likely that as long as its deliveries increase with every quarter, its stock will be rising in value in the long run.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: Buy This Chinese EV Manufacturer While It's Still Cheap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 21:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.\nDespite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434085-nio-buy-this-chinese-ev-manufacturer-while-its-still-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146386859","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China.\nDespite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla.\nAs the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years, we believe that NIO has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the future.\n\nNIO(NYSE:NIO)is a dominant EV manufacturer in the electric SUV segment in China. It has been constantly increasing its deliveries every quarter, its revenues have been growing at a triple-digit rate in recent years, and despite competing in the luxurious SUV segment, its cars are more affordable in comparison to the cars of its peers such as Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA). While NIO's stock has depreciated last month, there's every reason to believe that its growth story is far from over, as the Chinese EV market will continue to aggressively expand in the upcoming years and the penetration of electric vehicles on its roads is only going to increase. Considering this, the company has all the chances to create additional shareholder value in the long run.\nDominating the Chinese Market\nFounded in 2014, NIO is an electric vehicle manufacturer that's headquartered in Shanghai, China. The company mostly specializes in the development of luxurious electric SUVs and just likeXPeng(XPEV), it manufactures and sells its cars online and through its showrooms across China. In addition, NIO also offers various energy-related solutions such as home charging stations, mobile charging services, and others to its customers.\nIn recent years, the company has been aggressively growing, as the deliveries of its cars have been steadily increasing quarter after quarter, which led to the appreciation of its stock. However, due to the overall market selloff last month, NIO's stock along with stocks of other EV manufacturers such as XPeng, Tesla, and Li Auto (LI) evaporated most of its YTD gains and are currently underperforming the S&P 500 Index.\n\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nDespite this, there's every reason to believe that NIO's stock will recover, as the company's successful performance in Q1 shows that its growth story is far from over. InQ1alone NIO beat the Street expectations by $160 million and generated $1.22 billion in revenues, which represents an increase of 481.8% Y/Y. In addition, the company's gross profit was $237.3 million, while its vehicle margin was 21.2% against -7.4% a year ago. During the period, NIO has also improved its bottom-line performance, as its net loss was only $68.8 million, and despite the chip shortages and the Chinese New Year its deliveries have also increased by 422.7% Y/Y and by 15.6% Q/Q to 20,060.\nOne of the best things about NIO is that it already has a dominant position in the Chinese EV industry and it also has a solid balance sheet, as its cash reserves at the end of Q1stoodat $7.2 billion, while it had only $1.59 billion in long-term debt. As a result, it can easily reinvest its resources back into the business to drive growth and establish an even stronger foothold in its home market without worrying too much about the current losses.\nOn top of that, while some might say that by trading at a price-to-salesratioof ~13x NIO is overvalued, the reality is that its momentum is not slowing down and there's every reason to believe that the growth story is far from over. Considering that even at the market cap of ~$70 billion NIO still trades below the Streetconsensusprice of $59.24 per share, it's safe to assume that the upside is still there, especially since the current forecasts suggest that the company will increase its revenues from $2.49 billion in FY20 to $8.81 billion in FY22.\n\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAt this stage, the major competitor of NIO's flagship SUVES8is Tesla's Model X. However, there are several reasons to believe that the ES8 is a more attractive car in comparison to the Model X, and as a result, NIO has all the opportunities to outsell its competitor in China in the long run. First of all, the ES8 has more legroom and headroom than the Model X, it also has a luxurious interior, and it comes with three different battery packages that could last from 415 kilometers to 580 kilometers on a single charge.\nAll of the ES8 SUVs include a proprietary operating system, have advanced navigation software, and most importantly cost ~$70,000 per vehicle in China, which is below the cost of Tesla's Model X, which comes at a price tag of ~$110,000 per vehicle in the region. We believe that this pricing advantage will undoubtedly help NIO to outsell Tesla in the SUV segment, especially since its cars now could bepurchasedat a discount thanks to the new Chinese subsidy program.\nAnother uniqueness of NIO is its battery as a service business model, which allows its customers to swap their batteries in various swapping stations around China if they don't want to charge their cars or are in a hurry. After recently deploying the second version of its Power Swap stations, the swapping of batteries is now done in under three minutes, which is the same as refueling a traditional ICE car, and a single station now could perform up to 312 battery swaps in a single day. NIO now has a network of charging stations across all of China and if the solid-state batteries won't be available by the end of the decade at scale, then the idea of swapping batteries on the go will remain a viable business model in the long run.\nGoing forward, NIO plans to accelerate its deliveries this month in order to meet its Q2 goal of delivering 21,000 to 22,000 vehicles, which represents a growth of 103% Y/Y to 113% Y/Y and plans to generate $1.24 to $1.29 billion in revenues during the period. Despite the semiconductor shortages, NIO already managed to increase its deliveries in April and May to 7,102 vehicles and 6,711 vehicles, respectively, which represents a growth of 125% Y/Y and 95.3% Y/Y, respectively. On top of that, NIO is also on track to deliver 90,000 to 100,000 vehicles this year.\nConsidering this, there's every reason to believe that NIO will continue to be a dominant player in the Chinese EV market and a leader of the luxury EV segment in the region. While the company doesn't have an infrastructure outside China, we don't think that's a downside at all since China is the biggest EV market in the world that's constantly growing and NIO has better chances of creating shareholder value there than abroad. For that reason, we believe that NIO's growth story is far from over and it's likely that as long as its deliveries increase with every quarter, its stock will be rising in value in the long run.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104609174,"gmtCreate":1620380015198,"gmtModify":1704342831410,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So is it a buy?","listText":"So is it a buy?","text":"So is it a buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104609174","repostId":"1155904518","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155904518","pubTimestamp":1619582445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155904518?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155904518","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla's Q1 results beat on the top line and the bottom line. But what does a more in-depth ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla's Q1 results beat on the top line and the bottom line. But what does a more in-depth look tell us about Tesla's business?</li>\n <li>There are positive surprises, but also major issues that materialize once we delve into the numbers.</li>\n <li>We highlight the major reasons for concern and what we believe should be done with Tesla's stock.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e82f148a617efbe1a779ff650d2e1c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) reported its first-quarter results that beat on both the top line and the bottom line, showcasing healthy growth versus the previous year's quarter. A more in-depth look shows that not everything was rosy. In this article, I'll take a deeper look at the good things and the bad things investors should keep an eye on when considering an investment in Tesla, or when thinking about what to do with an existing Tesla investment.</p>\n<p><b>The Good</b></p>\n<p><b>Outperforming ASP Estimates</b></p>\n<p>Tesla had already announced that it grew its deliveries massively year over year, but the company nevertheless managed to beat revenue estimates, if only slightly. Revenues rose 74% year over year, which was a strong showing, even for a growth stock. The fact that Tesla was able to beat revenue estimates despite already having announced delivery numbers for the quarter shows that the company was able to outperform analyst estimates when it comes to average sales prices. It thus seems that the company was less impacted by some price adjustments compared to what analysts had expected. This is good news for Tesla, after all a higher average sales price is great for its margins.</p>\n<p><b>Healthy Cash Flows And Balance Sheet</b></p>\n<p>Tesla was, in previous years, oftentimes criticized for its lack of durable cash flows. More bearish analysts had oftentimes commented that the company's inability to finance capital expenditures from operating cash flows alone was a major issue. This has changed in the recent past, and in Q1, Tesla again showed that it was able to generate all the cash that the company needs to pay its factory capex:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16458a6ad0a9d6a8d3f6a44ffc2aa5d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Tesla presentation</span></p>\n<p>Tesla's operating cash flows were $300 million higher than its capital expenditures, resulting in a small positive free cash flow for the quarter. That was less compared to the previous quarter, but we should consider that Tesla's business is seasonal to some degree - sales are usually the lowest in Q1, which is why that is a weaker quarter cash-flow-wise. Comparing this year's Q1 to the previous year's Q1 shows an encouraging improvement in Tesla's cash generation ability.</p>\n<p>We can also take a look at how Tesla's balance sheet is doing. With $17 billion in cash and equivalents, Tesla has ample liquidity to finance its near-term cash needs, e.g. for the buildout of its factories in Austin and Berlin. I don't see any basis for claims that Tesla was in financial trouble or anything like that - the combination of a sizeable cash position and positive, albeit small, free cash flows is looking healthy. In case Tesla needs additional cash for whatever reason, the company could also most likely easily do another secondary - 2020's secondary didn't hurt the stock price at all.</p>\n<p><b>The Bad</b></p>\n<p><b>High Dependence On Regulatory Credit Sales</b></p>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's income statement, we see that Tesla has, despite showing healthy business growth, not yet managed to become profitable (to a significant degree) on the auto sales side when regulatory credit sales are backed out:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6cf5dcc33a3d1624093febaab7843b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>Source: Tesla presentation</span></p>\n<p>During the first quarter, regulatory credit sales of $520 million outpaced Tesla's net income by $80 million. When we assume that Tesla has likely paid taxes of around 20%, then we get to a pre-tax profit estimate of $550 million. In other words, once regulatory credit sales are backed out, Tesla more or less managed to break even (we can't say for sure until we see the 10-Q and the taxes Tesla paid). No matter what, it seems clear that profitability without regulatory credit sales was weak. This is a problem due to two reasons.</p>\n<p>First, regulatory credit sales will likely not be an ever-lasting source of revenue. If EVs will continue to make big gains in the automobile market, there will be more and more regulatory credit sales that can be sold, and there will be fewer and fewer legacy auto companies that need them. This should eventually make this market dry up, thus this part of Tesla's business will likely not be long-lasting.</p>\n<p>Second, the weak profitability without regulatory credit sales shows that the theory that Tesla's profitability will improve massively with scale seems a little adventurous. Tesla's operating profits ex regulatory credit sales improved by just $140 million between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021. If growing delivery numbers by more than 100% year over year and adding $4.4 billion in sales adds just $140 million in operating profits, then that doesn't tell a great story about how Tesla's auto business will become widely profitable with increasing scale. Instead, it looks like profitability (ex regulatory credit sales) improved only marginally, despite a huge increase in Tesla's deliveries and revenues. Operating leverage doesn't seem to be a huge driver of profitability here - unlike, for example, with many highly-valued software stocks, where additional revenues have an outsized impact on profits.</p>\n<p><b>Ex-Auto Businesses Are Losing More Money</b></p>\n<p>In my view, Tesla is a car company - after all, that is where most of its revenues are generated, at about 90%. Some bulls, however, think that Tesla should be seen as an integrated energy company, a tech company, etc. One can make arguments for that, although I still believe that the high dependency on regular auto sales clearly qualifies Tesla as a car company primarily.</p>\n<p>No matter what you think about how Tesla should be qualified, one thing seems pretty clear: The non-auto ventures are money-burning activities:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21de975474beff2fdf5c3cb16bc13b64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>Source: Tesla presentation</span></p>\n<p>From the above slide, we can deduct that the non-auto ventures contributed about $1.4 billion in revenues during the quarter. That was up from $0.9 billion during the previous year's quarter, and flat on a sequential basis. The non-auto ventures, such as batteries for energy storage and solar panels, thus delivered some business growth on a year-over-year basis. At the same time, however, these businesses seem to be structurally unprofitable. They generated<i>negative gross profits of $170 million</i>during the first quarter, up from a negative gross profit of $80 million during the previous year's quarter.</p>\n<p>In other words, Tesla's non-auto businesses grew, but lost more money - even before operating expenses and attributable interest expenses are accounted for. I don't see any reason to believe that a business that is regularly losing money on a gross profit basis - i.e. even before R&amp;D, sales, administrative expenses, etc. could become widely profitable in the foreseeable future. On top of that, the fact that gross profits got even further into negative territory despite the added scale shows that this isn't an issue that can be easily solved by growing the business to profitability - at least so far, more growth has led to more losses.</p>\n<p>It is possible that Tesla is able to eventually turn these businesses around, but the path to that seems quite hard from what we can tell. So far, it looks like these businesses are structurally unprofitable, and it is thus not easy to argue that they should be worth a lot.</p>\n<p><b>The Ugly</b></p>\n<p>Tesla isn't a bad company - it has turned from a startup to a market leader in EVs, surpassing many legacy auto companies on the way. The company also managed to build a valuable brand (although some others are still way more valuable). The company should be complemented for these achievements, and I don't think there's a good reason to trash the company.</p>\n<p>When we look at Tesla's valuation, however, it seems pretty clear to me that this stock is way overvalued. Tesla is valued at $700+ billion, despite being only marginally profitable without regulatory credit sales. The company, with annual sales of about 800,000 vehicles, is valued at several times as much as Toyota (TM) or Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), which sell about 10 million vehicles a year each - and they are massively more profitable than Tesla at the same time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cece9001c5e284c98dce11735d632420\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Comparing Tesla and Toyota, we see that the latter is valued at roughly 1/20th of how Tesla is valued, relative to the revenues these two companies generate. Massive growth is already priced into Tesla's shares, but it isn't clear whether Tesla will indeed sell many millions of cars in the foreseeable future.</p>\n<p>Due to growing competition from all sides, including legacy auto, new startups, and tech mega-corps such as Apple (AAPL), Tesla's growth could easily slow down in coming years. When we also factor in the weak profitability of Tesla's business once regulatory credit sales have run their course, I don't see any good reason why this company should be valued at anywhere close to $700 billion. I thus believe that Tesla isn't a bad company - but a very overvalued one for sure.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Tesla's Q1 wasn't outright bad - there were positives, such as average sales prices that beat expectations. There also were negatives, however, that shouldn't be ignored by bulls, such as weak profitability without regulatory credit sales, or the issues in Tesla's non-auto businesses.</p>\n<p>When we factor in Tesla's extremely high valuation - the stock trades for more than 1000 times trailing earnings - it seems to me that Tesla is a stock that should be avoided at current prices. If I held a position, I'd lock in gains, as downside risk seems quite pronounced here.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-28 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421799-tesla-earnings-good-bad-and-ugly><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla's Q1 results beat on the top line and the bottom line. But what does a more in-depth look tell us about Tesla's business?\nThere are positive surprises, but also major issues that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421799-tesla-earnings-good-bad-and-ugly\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421799-tesla-earnings-good-bad-and-ugly","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1155904518","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla's Q1 results beat on the top line and the bottom line. But what does a more in-depth look tell us about Tesla's business?\nThere are positive surprises, but also major issues that materialize once we delve into the numbers.\nWe highlight the major reasons for concern and what we believe should be done with Tesla's stock.\n\nPhoto by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nTesla (TSLA) reported its first-quarter results that beat on both the top line and the bottom line, showcasing healthy growth versus the previous year's quarter. A more in-depth look shows that not everything was rosy. In this article, I'll take a deeper look at the good things and the bad things investors should keep an eye on when considering an investment in Tesla, or when thinking about what to do with an existing Tesla investment.\nThe Good\nOutperforming ASP Estimates\nTesla had already announced that it grew its deliveries massively year over year, but the company nevertheless managed to beat revenue estimates, if only slightly. Revenues rose 74% year over year, which was a strong showing, even for a growth stock. The fact that Tesla was able to beat revenue estimates despite already having announced delivery numbers for the quarter shows that the company was able to outperform analyst estimates when it comes to average sales prices. It thus seems that the company was less impacted by some price adjustments compared to what analysts had expected. This is good news for Tesla, after all a higher average sales price is great for its margins.\nHealthy Cash Flows And Balance Sheet\nTesla was, in previous years, oftentimes criticized for its lack of durable cash flows. More bearish analysts had oftentimes commented that the company's inability to finance capital expenditures from operating cash flows alone was a major issue. This has changed in the recent past, and in Q1, Tesla again showed that it was able to generate all the cash that the company needs to pay its factory capex:\nSource: Tesla presentation\nTesla's operating cash flows were $300 million higher than its capital expenditures, resulting in a small positive free cash flow for the quarter. That was less compared to the previous quarter, but we should consider that Tesla's business is seasonal to some degree - sales are usually the lowest in Q1, which is why that is a weaker quarter cash-flow-wise. Comparing this year's Q1 to the previous year's Q1 shows an encouraging improvement in Tesla's cash generation ability.\nWe can also take a look at how Tesla's balance sheet is doing. With $17 billion in cash and equivalents, Tesla has ample liquidity to finance its near-term cash needs, e.g. for the buildout of its factories in Austin and Berlin. I don't see any basis for claims that Tesla was in financial trouble or anything like that - the combination of a sizeable cash position and positive, albeit small, free cash flows is looking healthy. In case Tesla needs additional cash for whatever reason, the company could also most likely easily do another secondary - 2020's secondary didn't hurt the stock price at all.\nThe Bad\nHigh Dependence On Regulatory Credit Sales\nLooking at Tesla's income statement, we see that Tesla has, despite showing healthy business growth, not yet managed to become profitable (to a significant degree) on the auto sales side when regulatory credit sales are backed out:\nSource: Tesla presentation\nDuring the first quarter, regulatory credit sales of $520 million outpaced Tesla's net income by $80 million. When we assume that Tesla has likely paid taxes of around 20%, then we get to a pre-tax profit estimate of $550 million. In other words, once regulatory credit sales are backed out, Tesla more or less managed to break even (we can't say for sure until we see the 10-Q and the taxes Tesla paid). No matter what, it seems clear that profitability without regulatory credit sales was weak. This is a problem due to two reasons.\nFirst, regulatory credit sales will likely not be an ever-lasting source of revenue. If EVs will continue to make big gains in the automobile market, there will be more and more regulatory credit sales that can be sold, and there will be fewer and fewer legacy auto companies that need them. This should eventually make this market dry up, thus this part of Tesla's business will likely not be long-lasting.\nSecond, the weak profitability without regulatory credit sales shows that the theory that Tesla's profitability will improve massively with scale seems a little adventurous. Tesla's operating profits ex regulatory credit sales improved by just $140 million between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021. If growing delivery numbers by more than 100% year over year and adding $4.4 billion in sales adds just $140 million in operating profits, then that doesn't tell a great story about how Tesla's auto business will become widely profitable with increasing scale. Instead, it looks like profitability (ex regulatory credit sales) improved only marginally, despite a huge increase in Tesla's deliveries and revenues. Operating leverage doesn't seem to be a huge driver of profitability here - unlike, for example, with many highly-valued software stocks, where additional revenues have an outsized impact on profits.\nEx-Auto Businesses Are Losing More Money\nIn my view, Tesla is a car company - after all, that is where most of its revenues are generated, at about 90%. Some bulls, however, think that Tesla should be seen as an integrated energy company, a tech company, etc. One can make arguments for that, although I still believe that the high dependency on regular auto sales clearly qualifies Tesla as a car company primarily.\nNo matter what you think about how Tesla should be qualified, one thing seems pretty clear: The non-auto ventures are money-burning activities:\nSource: Tesla presentation\nFrom the above slide, we can deduct that the non-auto ventures contributed about $1.4 billion in revenues during the quarter. That was up from $0.9 billion during the previous year's quarter, and flat on a sequential basis. The non-auto ventures, such as batteries for energy storage and solar panels, thus delivered some business growth on a year-over-year basis. At the same time, however, these businesses seem to be structurally unprofitable. They generatednegative gross profits of $170 millionduring the first quarter, up from a negative gross profit of $80 million during the previous year's quarter.\nIn other words, Tesla's non-auto businesses grew, but lost more money - even before operating expenses and attributable interest expenses are accounted for. I don't see any reason to believe that a business that is regularly losing money on a gross profit basis - i.e. even before R&D, sales, administrative expenses, etc. could become widely profitable in the foreseeable future. On top of that, the fact that gross profits got even further into negative territory despite the added scale shows that this isn't an issue that can be easily solved by growing the business to profitability - at least so far, more growth has led to more losses.\nIt is possible that Tesla is able to eventually turn these businesses around, but the path to that seems quite hard from what we can tell. So far, it looks like these businesses are structurally unprofitable, and it is thus not easy to argue that they should be worth a lot.\nThe Ugly\nTesla isn't a bad company - it has turned from a startup to a market leader in EVs, surpassing many legacy auto companies on the way. The company also managed to build a valuable brand (although some others are still way more valuable). The company should be complemented for these achievements, and I don't think there's a good reason to trash the company.\nWhen we look at Tesla's valuation, however, it seems pretty clear to me that this stock is way overvalued. Tesla is valued at $700+ billion, despite being only marginally profitable without regulatory credit sales. The company, with annual sales of about 800,000 vehicles, is valued at several times as much as Toyota (TM) or Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), which sell about 10 million vehicles a year each - and they are massively more profitable than Tesla at the same time.\nData by YCharts\nComparing Tesla and Toyota, we see that the latter is valued at roughly 1/20th of how Tesla is valued, relative to the revenues these two companies generate. Massive growth is already priced into Tesla's shares, but it isn't clear whether Tesla will indeed sell many millions of cars in the foreseeable future.\nDue to growing competition from all sides, including legacy auto, new startups, and tech mega-corps such as Apple (AAPL), Tesla's growth could easily slow down in coming years. When we also factor in the weak profitability of Tesla's business once regulatory credit sales have run their course, I don't see any good reason why this company should be valued at anywhere close to $700 billion. I thus believe that Tesla isn't a bad company - but a very overvalued one for sure.\nTakeaway\nTesla's Q1 wasn't outright bad - there were positives, such as average sales prices that beat expectations. There also were negatives, however, that shouldn't be ignored by bulls, such as weak profitability without regulatory credit sales, or the issues in Tesla's non-auto businesses.\nWhen we factor in Tesla's extremely high valuation - the stock trades for more than 1000 times trailing earnings - it seems to me that Tesla is a stock that should be avoided at current prices. If I held a position, I'd lock in gains, as downside risk seems quite pronounced here.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9099856349,"gmtCreate":1643333718750,"gmtModify":1676533806625,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>Omg drop none stop.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>Omg drop none stop.&nbsp;","text":"$SEA LTD(SE)$Omg drop none stop.","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/3106e425270077c3cd9d463d54ca9ec8","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9099856349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007719582,"gmtCreate":1643004055060,"gmtModify":1676533764253,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>[Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>[Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$[Facepalm]","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/2cafac5f9bb427a941a9cc60293467b7","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007719582","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007440757,"gmtCreate":1642989818573,"gmtModify":1676533762747,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Means not to buy all dips","listText":"Means not to buy all dips","text":"Means not to buy all dips","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007440757","repostId":"1110124323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007902541,"gmtCreate":1642728614751,"gmtModify":1676533740882,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Singtel?!!!","listText":"Singtel?!!!","text":"Singtel?!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007902541","repostId":"1137884935","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014323585,"gmtCreate":1649608504593,"gmtModify":1676534537344,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Cry[Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DIDI\">$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$</a>Cry[Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"$DiDi Global Inc.(DIDI)$Cry[Facepalm]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/736c931934cddf984f945e809becddfb","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014323585","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091288868,"gmtCreate":1643874404025,"gmtModify":1676533866545,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"NIO is still recommended?","listText":"NIO is still recommended?","text":"NIO is still recommended?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091288868","repostId":"1185754415","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167829088,"gmtCreate":1624260213444,"gmtModify":1703831806307,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So apple shares is not a buy","listText":"So apple shares is not a buy","text":"So apple shares is not a buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167829088","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167821909,"gmtCreate":1624260414601,"gmtModify":1703831809535,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple [Angry]&nbsp;","listText":"Apple [Angry]&nbsp;","text":"Apple [Angry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167821909","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183124175","pubTimestamp":1624151620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183124175?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183124175","media":"cnbc","summary":"As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.Growth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the market. However, these names are typically riskier and more volatile than the average stock.Adam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist and founder of Trivariate Research, said the time is right to buy growth shares, but investors should be cautious of a f","content":"<div>\n<p>As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SQ":"Block","NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","MCHP":"微芯科技"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1183124175","content_text":"As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the market. However, these names are typically riskier and more volatile than the average stock.\nAdam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist and founder of Trivariate Research, said the time is right to buy growth shares, but investors should be cautious of a few.\n“We think that portfolio managers should be buying growth stocks again, focusing on positive free cash flow and margin expansion, not earnings-based valuation,” Parker said in a note released Wednesday.\nTrivariate Research used a number of criteria to identify risky stocks, including low or negative correlation to inflation, high correlation to the economic reopening and high levels of company insiders selling their shares. The research firm then identified the eight riskiest names based on those measures.\n“Our view is that these are among the riskiest stocks to own today, so investors who own these names should have disproportionate upside to their base cases to compensate them for these risks,” Parker said.\nTake a look at five of the riskiest technology stocks, according to Trivariate.\nRISKIEST TECH STOCKS, ACCORDING TO TRIVARIATE\n\n\n\nTICKER\nCOMPANY\nPRICE\n%CHANGE\n\n\n\n\nMCHP\nMicrochip Technology Inc\n145.62\n-3.0686\n\n\nTWLO\nTwilio Inc\n367.61\n1.84\n\n\nSQ\nSquare Inc\n237.05\n0.39\n\n\nNVDA\nNVIDIA Corp\n745.55\n-0.0992\n\n\nAAPL\nApple Inc\n130.46\n-1.0092\n\n\n\nApple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks. The research firm identifies Apple as one of the stocks with the most negative correlation to inflation. Trivariate predicts that if bond yields rise or if fears of inflation continue, shares of Apple will underperform the market.\nNvidiaalso makes the list of risky tech stocks. Trivariate found the semiconductor stock has one of the most asymmetric beta — meaning the stock is consistently more volatile than the broader market during a market pullback compared with typical times.\nTrivariate also named payments companySquare, cloud communications platformTwilioand semiconductor manufacturerMicrochip Technologyamong the riskiest technology stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167829602,"gmtCreate":1624260303906,"gmtModify":1703831807114,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good?","listText":"Good?","text":"Good?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167829602","repostId":"1148576248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148576248","pubTimestamp":1623979883,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148576248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>\n <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>\n <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p>\n<p><b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p>\n<p>NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p>\n<p>Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p>\n<p>Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p>\n<p>NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p>\n<p>China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p>\n<p>Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p>\n<p>The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p>\n<p><b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p>\n<p>NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p>\n<p>The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p>\n<p>However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p>\n<p>Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p>\n<p>Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p>\n<p>NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p>\n<p>NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p>\n<p>Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p>\n<p>NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169909436,"gmtCreate":1623810913525,"gmtModify":1703820196837,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy","listText":"Buy","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169909436","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104609174,"gmtCreate":1620380015198,"gmtModify":1704342831410,"author":{"id":"3581413511126130","authorId":"3581413511126130","name":"Xperia85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So is it a buy?","listText":"So is it a buy?","text":"So is it a buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104609174","repostId":"1155904518","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155904518","pubTimestamp":1619582445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155904518?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155904518","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla's Q1 results beat on the top line and the bottom line. But what does a more in-depth ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla's Q1 results beat on the top line and the bottom line. But what does a more in-depth look tell us about Tesla's business?</li>\n <li>There are positive surprises, but also major issues that materialize once we delve into the numbers.</li>\n <li>We highlight the major reasons for concern and what we believe should be done with Tesla's stock.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28e82f148a617efbe1a779ff650d2e1c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images News via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Tesla (TSLA) reported its first-quarter results that beat on both the top line and the bottom line, showcasing healthy growth versus the previous year's quarter. A more in-depth look shows that not everything was rosy. In this article, I'll take a deeper look at the good things and the bad things investors should keep an eye on when considering an investment in Tesla, or when thinking about what to do with an existing Tesla investment.</p>\n<p><b>The Good</b></p>\n<p><b>Outperforming ASP Estimates</b></p>\n<p>Tesla had already announced that it grew its deliveries massively year over year, but the company nevertheless managed to beat revenue estimates, if only slightly. Revenues rose 74% year over year, which was a strong showing, even for a growth stock. The fact that Tesla was able to beat revenue estimates despite already having announced delivery numbers for the quarter shows that the company was able to outperform analyst estimates when it comes to average sales prices. It thus seems that the company was less impacted by some price adjustments compared to what analysts had expected. This is good news for Tesla, after all a higher average sales price is great for its margins.</p>\n<p><b>Healthy Cash Flows And Balance Sheet</b></p>\n<p>Tesla was, in previous years, oftentimes criticized for its lack of durable cash flows. More bearish analysts had oftentimes commented that the company's inability to finance capital expenditures from operating cash flows alone was a major issue. This has changed in the recent past, and in Q1, Tesla again showed that it was able to generate all the cash that the company needs to pay its factory capex:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16458a6ad0a9d6a8d3f6a44ffc2aa5d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Tesla presentation</span></p>\n<p>Tesla's operating cash flows were $300 million higher than its capital expenditures, resulting in a small positive free cash flow for the quarter. That was less compared to the previous quarter, but we should consider that Tesla's business is seasonal to some degree - sales are usually the lowest in Q1, which is why that is a weaker quarter cash-flow-wise. Comparing this year's Q1 to the previous year's Q1 shows an encouraging improvement in Tesla's cash generation ability.</p>\n<p>We can also take a look at how Tesla's balance sheet is doing. With $17 billion in cash and equivalents, Tesla has ample liquidity to finance its near-term cash needs, e.g. for the buildout of its factories in Austin and Berlin. I don't see any basis for claims that Tesla was in financial trouble or anything like that - the combination of a sizeable cash position and positive, albeit small, free cash flows is looking healthy. In case Tesla needs additional cash for whatever reason, the company could also most likely easily do another secondary - 2020's secondary didn't hurt the stock price at all.</p>\n<p><b>The Bad</b></p>\n<p><b>High Dependence On Regulatory Credit Sales</b></p>\n<p>Looking at Tesla's income statement, we see that Tesla has, despite showing healthy business growth, not yet managed to become profitable (to a significant degree) on the auto sales side when regulatory credit sales are backed out:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6cf5dcc33a3d1624093febaab7843b7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>Source: Tesla presentation</span></p>\n<p>During the first quarter, regulatory credit sales of $520 million outpaced Tesla's net income by $80 million. When we assume that Tesla has likely paid taxes of around 20%, then we get to a pre-tax profit estimate of $550 million. In other words, once regulatory credit sales are backed out, Tesla more or less managed to break even (we can't say for sure until we see the 10-Q and the taxes Tesla paid). No matter what, it seems clear that profitability without regulatory credit sales was weak. This is a problem due to two reasons.</p>\n<p>First, regulatory credit sales will likely not be an ever-lasting source of revenue. If EVs will continue to make big gains in the automobile market, there will be more and more regulatory credit sales that can be sold, and there will be fewer and fewer legacy auto companies that need them. This should eventually make this market dry up, thus this part of Tesla's business will likely not be long-lasting.</p>\n<p>Second, the weak profitability without regulatory credit sales shows that the theory that Tesla's profitability will improve massively with scale seems a little adventurous. Tesla's operating profits ex regulatory credit sales improved by just $140 million between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021. If growing delivery numbers by more than 100% year over year and adding $4.4 billion in sales adds just $140 million in operating profits, then that doesn't tell a great story about how Tesla's auto business will become widely profitable with increasing scale. Instead, it looks like profitability (ex regulatory credit sales) improved only marginally, despite a huge increase in Tesla's deliveries and revenues. Operating leverage doesn't seem to be a huge driver of profitability here - unlike, for example, with many highly-valued software stocks, where additional revenues have an outsized impact on profits.</p>\n<p><b>Ex-Auto Businesses Are Losing More Money</b></p>\n<p>In my view, Tesla is a car company - after all, that is where most of its revenues are generated, at about 90%. Some bulls, however, think that Tesla should be seen as an integrated energy company, a tech company, etc. One can make arguments for that, although I still believe that the high dependency on regular auto sales clearly qualifies Tesla as a car company primarily.</p>\n<p>No matter what you think about how Tesla should be qualified, one thing seems pretty clear: The non-auto ventures are money-burning activities:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21de975474beff2fdf5c3cb16bc13b64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>Source: Tesla presentation</span></p>\n<p>From the above slide, we can deduct that the non-auto ventures contributed about $1.4 billion in revenues during the quarter. That was up from $0.9 billion during the previous year's quarter, and flat on a sequential basis. The non-auto ventures, such as batteries for energy storage and solar panels, thus delivered some business growth on a year-over-year basis. At the same time, however, these businesses seem to be structurally unprofitable. They generated<i>negative gross profits of $170 million</i>during the first quarter, up from a negative gross profit of $80 million during the previous year's quarter.</p>\n<p>In other words, Tesla's non-auto businesses grew, but lost more money - even before operating expenses and attributable interest expenses are accounted for. I don't see any reason to believe that a business that is regularly losing money on a gross profit basis - i.e. even before R&amp;D, sales, administrative expenses, etc. could become widely profitable in the foreseeable future. On top of that, the fact that gross profits got even further into negative territory despite the added scale shows that this isn't an issue that can be easily solved by growing the business to profitability - at least so far, more growth has led to more losses.</p>\n<p>It is possible that Tesla is able to eventually turn these businesses around, but the path to that seems quite hard from what we can tell. So far, it looks like these businesses are structurally unprofitable, and it is thus not easy to argue that they should be worth a lot.</p>\n<p><b>The Ugly</b></p>\n<p>Tesla isn't a bad company - it has turned from a startup to a market leader in EVs, surpassing many legacy auto companies on the way. The company also managed to build a valuable brand (although some others are still way more valuable). The company should be complemented for these achievements, and I don't think there's a good reason to trash the company.</p>\n<p>When we look at Tesla's valuation, however, it seems pretty clear to me that this stock is way overvalued. Tesla is valued at $700+ billion, despite being only marginally profitable without regulatory credit sales. The company, with annual sales of about 800,000 vehicles, is valued at several times as much as Toyota (TM) or Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), which sell about 10 million vehicles a year each - and they are massively more profitable than Tesla at the same time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cece9001c5e284c98dce11735d632420\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Comparing Tesla and Toyota, we see that the latter is valued at roughly 1/20th of how Tesla is valued, relative to the revenues these two companies generate. Massive growth is already priced into Tesla's shares, but it isn't clear whether Tesla will indeed sell many millions of cars in the foreseeable future.</p>\n<p>Due to growing competition from all sides, including legacy auto, new startups, and tech mega-corps such as Apple (AAPL), Tesla's growth could easily slow down in coming years. When we also factor in the weak profitability of Tesla's business once regulatory credit sales have run their course, I don't see any good reason why this company should be valued at anywhere close to $700 billion. I thus believe that Tesla isn't a bad company - but a very overvalued one for sure.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Tesla's Q1 wasn't outright bad - there were positives, such as average sales prices that beat expectations. There also were negatives, however, that shouldn't be ignored by bulls, such as weak profitability without regulatory credit sales, or the issues in Tesla's non-auto businesses.</p>\n<p>When we factor in Tesla's extremely high valuation - the stock trades for more than 1000 times trailing earnings - it seems to me that Tesla is a stock that should be avoided at current prices. If I held a position, I'd lock in gains, as downside risk seems quite pronounced here.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-28 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421799-tesla-earnings-good-bad-and-ugly><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTesla's Q1 results beat on the top line and the bottom line. But what does a more in-depth look tell us about Tesla's business?\nThere are positive surprises, but also major issues that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421799-tesla-earnings-good-bad-and-ugly\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4421799-tesla-earnings-good-bad-and-ugly","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1155904518","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla's Q1 results beat on the top line and the bottom line. But what does a more in-depth look tell us about Tesla's business?\nThere are positive surprises, but also major issues that materialize once we delve into the numbers.\nWe highlight the major reasons for concern and what we believe should be done with Tesla's stock.\n\nPhoto by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images News via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nTesla (TSLA) reported its first-quarter results that beat on both the top line and the bottom line, showcasing healthy growth versus the previous year's quarter. A more in-depth look shows that not everything was rosy. In this article, I'll take a deeper look at the good things and the bad things investors should keep an eye on when considering an investment in Tesla, or when thinking about what to do with an existing Tesla investment.\nThe Good\nOutperforming ASP Estimates\nTesla had already announced that it grew its deliveries massively year over year, but the company nevertheless managed to beat revenue estimates, if only slightly. Revenues rose 74% year over year, which was a strong showing, even for a growth stock. The fact that Tesla was able to beat revenue estimates despite already having announced delivery numbers for the quarter shows that the company was able to outperform analyst estimates when it comes to average sales prices. It thus seems that the company was less impacted by some price adjustments compared to what analysts had expected. This is good news for Tesla, after all a higher average sales price is great for its margins.\nHealthy Cash Flows And Balance Sheet\nTesla was, in previous years, oftentimes criticized for its lack of durable cash flows. More bearish analysts had oftentimes commented that the company's inability to finance capital expenditures from operating cash flows alone was a major issue. This has changed in the recent past, and in Q1, Tesla again showed that it was able to generate all the cash that the company needs to pay its factory capex:\nSource: Tesla presentation\nTesla's operating cash flows were $300 million higher than its capital expenditures, resulting in a small positive free cash flow for the quarter. That was less compared to the previous quarter, but we should consider that Tesla's business is seasonal to some degree - sales are usually the lowest in Q1, which is why that is a weaker quarter cash-flow-wise. Comparing this year's Q1 to the previous year's Q1 shows an encouraging improvement in Tesla's cash generation ability.\nWe can also take a look at how Tesla's balance sheet is doing. With $17 billion in cash and equivalents, Tesla has ample liquidity to finance its near-term cash needs, e.g. for the buildout of its factories in Austin and Berlin. I don't see any basis for claims that Tesla was in financial trouble or anything like that - the combination of a sizeable cash position and positive, albeit small, free cash flows is looking healthy. In case Tesla needs additional cash for whatever reason, the company could also most likely easily do another secondary - 2020's secondary didn't hurt the stock price at all.\nThe Bad\nHigh Dependence On Regulatory Credit Sales\nLooking at Tesla's income statement, we see that Tesla has, despite showing healthy business growth, not yet managed to become profitable (to a significant degree) on the auto sales side when regulatory credit sales are backed out:\nSource: Tesla presentation\nDuring the first quarter, regulatory credit sales of $520 million outpaced Tesla's net income by $80 million. When we assume that Tesla has likely paid taxes of around 20%, then we get to a pre-tax profit estimate of $550 million. In other words, once regulatory credit sales are backed out, Tesla more or less managed to break even (we can't say for sure until we see the 10-Q and the taxes Tesla paid). No matter what, it seems clear that profitability without regulatory credit sales was weak. This is a problem due to two reasons.\nFirst, regulatory credit sales will likely not be an ever-lasting source of revenue. If EVs will continue to make big gains in the automobile market, there will be more and more regulatory credit sales that can be sold, and there will be fewer and fewer legacy auto companies that need them. This should eventually make this market dry up, thus this part of Tesla's business will likely not be long-lasting.\nSecond, the weak profitability without regulatory credit sales shows that the theory that Tesla's profitability will improve massively with scale seems a little adventurous. Tesla's operating profits ex regulatory credit sales improved by just $140 million between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021. If growing delivery numbers by more than 100% year over year and adding $4.4 billion in sales adds just $140 million in operating profits, then that doesn't tell a great story about how Tesla's auto business will become widely profitable with increasing scale. Instead, it looks like profitability (ex regulatory credit sales) improved only marginally, despite a huge increase in Tesla's deliveries and revenues. Operating leverage doesn't seem to be a huge driver of profitability here - unlike, for example, with many highly-valued software stocks, where additional revenues have an outsized impact on profits.\nEx-Auto Businesses Are Losing More Money\nIn my view, Tesla is a car company - after all, that is where most of its revenues are generated, at about 90%. Some bulls, however, think that Tesla should be seen as an integrated energy company, a tech company, etc. One can make arguments for that, although I still believe that the high dependency on regular auto sales clearly qualifies Tesla as a car company primarily.\nNo matter what you think about how Tesla should be qualified, one thing seems pretty clear: The non-auto ventures are money-burning activities:\nSource: Tesla presentation\nFrom the above slide, we can deduct that the non-auto ventures contributed about $1.4 billion in revenues during the quarter. That was up from $0.9 billion during the previous year's quarter, and flat on a sequential basis. The non-auto ventures, such as batteries for energy storage and solar panels, thus delivered some business growth on a year-over-year basis. At the same time, however, these businesses seem to be structurally unprofitable. They generatednegative gross profits of $170 millionduring the first quarter, up from a negative gross profit of $80 million during the previous year's quarter.\nIn other words, Tesla's non-auto businesses grew, but lost more money - even before operating expenses and attributable interest expenses are accounted for. I don't see any reason to believe that a business that is regularly losing money on a gross profit basis - i.e. even before R&D, sales, administrative expenses, etc. could become widely profitable in the foreseeable future. On top of that, the fact that gross profits got even further into negative territory despite the added scale shows that this isn't an issue that can be easily solved by growing the business to profitability - at least so far, more growth has led to more losses.\nIt is possible that Tesla is able to eventually turn these businesses around, but the path to that seems quite hard from what we can tell. So far, it looks like these businesses are structurally unprofitable, and it is thus not easy to argue that they should be worth a lot.\nThe Ugly\nTesla isn't a bad company - it has turned from a startup to a market leader in EVs, surpassing many legacy auto companies on the way. The company also managed to build a valuable brand (although some others are still way more valuable). The company should be complemented for these achievements, and I don't think there's a good reason to trash the company.\nWhen we look at Tesla's valuation, however, it seems pretty clear to me that this stock is way overvalued. Tesla is valued at $700+ billion, despite being only marginally profitable without regulatory credit sales. The company, with annual sales of about 800,000 vehicles, is valued at several times as much as Toyota (TM) or Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY), which sell about 10 million vehicles a year each - and they are massively more profitable than Tesla at the same time.\nData by YCharts\nComparing Tesla and Toyota, we see that the latter is valued at roughly 1/20th of how Tesla is valued, relative to the revenues these two companies generate. Massive growth is already priced into Tesla's shares, but it isn't clear whether Tesla will indeed sell many millions of cars in the foreseeable future.\nDue to growing competition from all sides, including legacy auto, new startups, and tech mega-corps such as Apple (AAPL), Tesla's growth could easily slow down in coming years. When we also factor in the weak profitability of Tesla's business once regulatory credit sales have run their course, I don't see any good reason why this company should be valued at anywhere close to $700 billion. I thus believe that Tesla isn't a bad company - but a very overvalued one for sure.\nTakeaway\nTesla's Q1 wasn't outright bad - there were positives, such as average sales prices that beat expectations. There also were negatives, however, that shouldn't be ignored by bulls, such as weak profitability without regulatory credit sales, or the issues in Tesla's non-auto businesses.\nWhen we factor in Tesla's extremely high valuation - the stock trades for more than 1000 times trailing earnings - it seems to me that Tesla is a stock that should be avoided at current prices. If I held a position, I'd lock in gains, as downside risk seems quite pronounced here.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}