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2023-11-30

Value investing is not only buying undervalued company stocks but also buying overvalued company stocks which have the potential to grow even more.

2023-08-04

Forecast of $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ @TigerGpt TigerGPT，your new investing superpower Click to learn more

2023-04-15

👍👍👍👍👍👍😅

2023-04-14

👍👍👍👍👍👍

2023-04-13

👍👍👍👍👍👍👍😅

2023-04-12

What a wonderful day

2023-04-11

Good, cool, yeah......

2023-04-10

Cool great yeah see...

2023-04-09

Welcome to Tiger's Easter egg hunt

2023-04-08

Welcome to Tiger...👍

2023-04-07

Tiger's Easter egg hunt

2023-04-06

Quite fun and interesting

2023-04-05

Great, cool, nice...

2023-04-04

Great, cool, nice...

2023-04-04

Cool

@TigerEvents:【Game】Easter Egg Hunting with Tiger, Win Disney Shares and USD 120 Voucher

2023-01-03

Cool

2023-01-02

Cool

2023-01-01

Cool

2022-12-31

Cool

2022-12-30

Cool

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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investing is not only buying undervalued company stocks but also buying overvalued company stocks which have the potential to grow even more.&nbsp;","listText":"Value investing is not only buying undervalued company stocks but also buying overvalued company stocks which have the potential to grow even more.&nbsp;","text":"Value investing is not only buying undervalued company stocks but also buying overvalued company stocks which have the potential to grow even more.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/246817328349280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":205358425890992,"gmtCreate":1691145700827,"gmtModify":1691145703470,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Forecast of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4141429963588842/\">@TigerGpt&nbsp;</a>TigerGPT，your new investing superpower&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/tigerGPT-promotion\">Click to learn more&nbsp;</a>","listText":"Forecast of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4141429963588842/\">@TigerGpt&nbsp;</a>TigerGPT，your new investing superpower&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/tigerGPT-promotion\">Click to learn more&nbsp;</a>","text":"Forecast of $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ @TigerGpt TigerGPT，your new investing superpower Click to learn more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205358425890992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4141429963588842","authorId":"4141429963588842","name":"TigerGPT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b82af1deb17dfa8f94b4741b9ea2738","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4141429963588842","authorIdStr":"4141429963588842"},"content":"Based on the information provided, it is difficult to provide a specific forecast for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). However, there are a few factors that could affect the performance of SPY: rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and the ongoing earnings season. Additionally, according to a recent analysis, SPY appears to be significantly overvalued based on several metrics and may be on the verge of a bear market. It is important to note that investing always carries some level of risk. Reference articles: S&P 500 futures rise slightly as investors weigh Big Tech earnings, await key jobs data: Live updates The S&P 500 booked a third straight day of declines on Thursday as longer-dated Treasury yields spiked in the wake of the U.S. downgrade by Fitch Ratings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed about 67 points, or 0.2%, ending near 35,215, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.1%. Investors continued to monitor U.S. economy data against a backdrop where the nation's credit worthiness has become a key source of debate. Fitch on Tuesday cut its U.S. ratings to AA+ from AAA, becoming the second major rating agency to do so in the past dozen years.Investors were keeping a close eye on the jump in long-term Treasury yields, with the 10 year rate climbing to 4.188% on Thursday afternoon and the 30-year Treasury yield up near 4.304%, marking the highest yield on both since November 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors also will be digesting quarterly earnings from Apple Inc. and Amazon due after the Investing.com -- The S&P 500 cut some losses Thursday as investors bought the dip in the tech ahead of quarterly results from Amazon and Apple after the market closes.The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, or 22 points, and Nasdaq was flat.Tech cuts losses as investors buy dip in chips; Paypal slumps. Tech cut early-day losses as investors bought the dip in chips from a day earlier, pushing Advanced Micro Devices Inc and NVIDIA Corporation higher to offset losses in Qualcomm .Qualcomm fell more than 10% after the chipmaker’s gloomy update on guidance for the current quarter and third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates weighed on sentiment.While Qualcomm’s guidance was in line with estimates, investors were spooked by “management’s soft commentary around its Dec quarter and incremental headwinds in 2024,” Deutsche Bank said as it downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.“We expect continued softening [in the labor market],” Morgan Stanley S&P 500 falls for a second day as yields rise, earnings season continues: Live updates SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): What Lies Ahead on the Horizon? 3 Reasons Why SPY Could Be On The Cusp Of A Bear Market","text":"Based on the information provided, it is difficult to provide a specific forecast for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). However, there are a few factors that could affect the performance of SPY: rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and the ongoing earnings season. Additionally, according to a recent analysis, SPY appears to be significantly overvalued based on several metrics and may be on the verge of a bear market. It is important to note that investing always carries some level of risk. Reference articles: S&P 500 futures rise slightly as investors weigh Big Tech earnings, await key jobs data: Live updates The S&P 500 booked a third straight day of declines on Thursday as longer-dated Treasury yields spiked in the wake of the U.S. downgrade by Fitch Ratings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed about 67 points, or 0.2%, ending near 35,215, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.1%. Investors continued to monitor U.S. economy data against a backdrop where the nation's credit worthiness has become a key source of debate. Fitch on Tuesday cut its U.S. ratings to AA+ from AAA, becoming the second major rating agency to do so in the past dozen years.Investors were keeping a close eye on the jump in long-term Treasury yields, with the 10 year rate climbing to 4.188% on Thursday afternoon and the 30-year Treasury yield up near 4.304%, marking the highest yield on both since November 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors also will be digesting quarterly earnings from Apple Inc. and Amazon due after the Investing.com -- The S&P 500 cut some losses Thursday as investors bought the dip in the tech ahead of quarterly results from Amazon and Apple after the market closes.The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, or 22 points, and Nasdaq was flat.Tech cuts losses as investors buy dip in chips; Paypal slumps. Tech cut early-day losses as investors bought the dip in chips from a day earlier, pushing Advanced Micro Devices Inc and NVIDIA Corporation higher to offset losses in Qualcomm .Qualcomm fell more than 10% after the chipmaker’s gloomy update on guidance for the current quarter and third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates weighed on sentiment.While Qualcomm’s guidance was in line with estimates, investors were spooked by “management’s soft commentary around its Dec quarter and incremental headwinds in 2024,” Deutsche Bank said as it downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.“We expect continued softening [in the labor market],” Morgan Stanley S&P 500 falls for a second day as yields rise, earnings season continues: Live updates SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): What Lies Ahead on the Horizon? 3 Reasons Why SPY Could Be On The Cusp Of A Bear Market","html":"Based on the information provided, it is difficult to provide a specific forecast for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). 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Fitch on Tuesday cut its U.S. ratings to AA+ from AAA, becoming the second major rating agency to do so in the past dozen years.Investors were keeping a close eye on the jump in long-term Treasury yields, with the 10 year rate climbing to 4.188% on Thursday afternoon and the 30-year Treasury yield up near 4.304%, marking the highest yield on both since November 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors also will be digesting quarterly earnings from Apple Inc. and Amazon due after the Investing.com -- The S&P 500 cut some losses Thursday as investors bought the dip in the tech ahead of quarterly results from Amazon and Apple after the market closes.The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, or 22 points, and Nasdaq was flat.Tech cuts losses as investors buy dip in chips; Paypal slumps. Tech cut early-day losses as investors bought the dip in chips from a day earlier, pushing Advanced Micro Devices Inc and NVIDIA Corporation higher to offset losses in Qualcomm .Qualcomm fell more than 10% after the chipmaker’s gloomy update on guidance for the current quarter and third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates weighed on sentiment.While Qualcomm’s guidance was in line with estimates, investors were spooked by “management’s soft commentary around its Dec quarter and incremental headwinds in 2024,” Deutsche Bank said as it downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.“We expect continued softening [in the labor market],” Morgan Stanley S&P 500 falls for a second day as yields rise, earnings season continues: Live updates SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): What Lies Ahead on the Horizon? 3 Reasons Why SPY Could Be On The Cusp Of A Bear Market"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945262146,"gmtCreate":1681488288985,"gmtModify":1681488292035,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍👍👍👍😅","listText":"👍👍👍👍👍👍😅","text":"👍👍👍👍👍👍😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945262146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945869377,"gmtCreate":1681429772399,"gmtModify":1681429774236,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍👍👍👍","listText":"👍👍👍👍👍👍","text":"👍👍👍👍👍👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945869377","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945089945,"gmtCreate":1681321515987,"gmtModify":1681321519707,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍👍👍👍👍👍👍😅","listText":"👍👍👍👍👍👍👍😅","text":"👍👍👍👍👍👍👍😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945089945","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942283309,"gmtCreate":1681229358102,"gmtModify":1681229361003,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What a wonderful day&nbsp;","listText":"What a wonderful day&nbsp;","text":"What a wonderful day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942283309","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942836320,"gmtCreate":1681175961660,"gmtModify":1681175965852,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good, cool, yeah......","listText":"Good, cool, yeah......","text":"Good, cool, yeah......","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9942836320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9942017840,"gmtCreate":1681083706381,"gmtModify":1681083709429,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool great yeah see...","listText":"Cool great yeah see...","text":"Cool great yeah 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Tiger...👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946139475","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946913715,"gmtCreate":1680834070337,"gmtModify":1680834073212,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt&nbsp;","text":"Tiger's Easter egg 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Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","listText":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/easter/?adcode=20230316162207#/\" target=\"_blank\">Join our Easter campaign now</a>","text":"🐰🌷 Hop into the Easter spirit and join our \"Tiger's Egg Hunting\" game! 🎉Stand to win free Disney stocks and a USD 120 cash voucher!🎁🌟Our interactive Easter game is open to Tigers, and it's so easy to play! Simply jump and catch the egg, and you could be a lucky winner. 🐇That's not all. You can also invite your friends to join in the fun to earn more points. Plus, you can challenge your friends for a race up the leaderboard. Let's fly to the moon together!Don't miss out on this egg-citing opportunity to win BIG! Join the game now and hop on your way to victory. 🥳🐣Join our Easter campaign 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ARKK is worth buying into...","listText":"I'm&nbsp;wonderIng&nbsp;if ARKK is worth buying into...","text":"I'm wonderIng if ARKK is worth buying into...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034567403","repostId":"1145709827","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145709827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1647919805,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145709827?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-22 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood's ARK Invest Trades for 3/21:  Buy Shopify and Twilio, Sell Block","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145709827","media":"24/7 wall street","summary":"Markets edged lower to start out the week despite hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve about rai","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Markets edged lower to start out the week despite hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve about raising interest rates in the near future. </p><p>ARK Invest funds did not see much trading action in this session but there were losses across the board. </p><p>ARKQ performed the best out of the group, with a 0.6% loss on the day, while ARKG did the worst, down 3.4%. </p><p>The gains from the past year are slowly sliding away, but Cathie Wood may have something up her sleeve, as she is constantly reshuffling her ETFs to stand up to market headwinds.</p><p>Here is a quick look at some of the major purchases and sales that ARK Invest executed on March 21, 2022.</p><p>The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKF) deals mainly with up-and-coming fintech stocks, as the name suggests. Some of its biggest holdings include Square, Zillow, Pinterest, PayPal and Alibaba. Net assets for the fund are currently $2.2 billion. There was one notable trade in this fund: Buy 32,635 shares of Shopify, Buy 96,978 shares of Twilio, &amp; Sell 281,910 shares of Block.</p><p>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKG) looks at companies across multiple industries, but the general focus is on health care and companies that are changing the game technologically in this field. The biggest holdings are Pacific Biosciences, Teladoc Health, CRISPR and Fate Therapeutics. Net assets for the fund are currently $5.1 billion. Here are some notable trades in this fund: Buy 52,752 shares of Adaptive Biotechnologies &amp; Sell 7,877 shares of Cellectis.</p><p>ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK) has a particular focus on disruptive innovation across multiple industries, but primarily tech. Some of the biggest names are in this fund, including Tesla, Roku, Square, Zillow and Spotify. Net assets for this fund are currently $16.2 billion. Here are some notable trades in this fund: NO TRADES</p><p>ARK Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKQ) is focused, unsurprisingly, on companies that are in the field of autonomous technology and robotics, specifically ones that are disruptively innovating. Big names in this fund include Tesla, Alphabet, JD.com, Baidu and Iridium. Net assets for this fund are currently $2.2 billion. Here are some notable trades in the fund: NO TRADES</p><p>ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKW) is focused on companies that are disruptively innovating within the theme of the next generation of the internet. Some names in this fund are similar to the others, including Tesla, Square, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Facebook and Snap. Net assets for this fund are currently $3.8 billion. Here are the notable trades in the fund: NO TRADES</p><p>Ark Space Exploration &amp; Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKX) is focused primarily on companies developing technology around spaceflight. Big names in this fund include Trimble, Kratos, Nvidia, Amazon and Iridium. Net assets for this fund are currently $468.9 million. There was one notable purchase in the fund: NO TRADES</p><p>Check out all the trades here:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1be977425fb76ea622fba97c3251c37\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Catherine Wood, the CEO and CIO of ARK Investment Management, is a minority and nonvoting shareholder of 24/7 Wall St., owner of 247wallst.com.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1620372341666","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood's ARK Invest Trades for 3/21:  Buy Shopify and Twilio, Sell Block</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood's ARK Invest Trades for 3/21:  Buy Shopify and Twilio, Sell Block\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-22 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://247wallst.com/investing/2022/03/21/cathie-woods-ark-invest-trades-for-3-21/><strong>24/7 wall street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Markets edged lower to start out the week despite hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve about raising interest rates in the near future. ARK Invest funds did not see much trading action in this ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://247wallst.com/investing/2022/03/21/cathie-woods-ark-invest-trades-for-3-21/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2022/03/21/cathie-woods-ark-invest-trades-for-3-21/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145709827","content_text":"Markets edged lower to start out the week despite hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve about raising interest rates in the near future. ARK Invest funds did not see much trading action in this session but there were losses across the board. ARKQ performed the best out of the group, with a 0.6% loss on the day, while ARKG did the worst, down 3.4%. The gains from the past year are slowly sliding away, but Cathie Wood may have something up her sleeve, as she is constantly reshuffling her ETFs to stand up to market headwinds.Here is a quick look at some of the major purchases and sales that ARK Invest executed on March 21, 2022.The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKF) deals mainly with up-and-coming fintech stocks, as the name suggests. Some of its biggest holdings include Square, Zillow, Pinterest, PayPal and Alibaba. Net assets for the fund are currently $2.2 billion. There was one notable trade in this fund: Buy 32,635 shares of Shopify, Buy 96,978 shares of Twilio, & Sell 281,910 shares of Block.ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKG) looks at companies across multiple industries, but the general focus is on health care and companies that are changing the game technologically in this field. The biggest holdings are Pacific Biosciences, Teladoc Health, CRISPR and Fate Therapeutics. Net assets for the fund are currently $5.1 billion. Here are some notable trades in this fund: Buy 52,752 shares of Adaptive Biotechnologies & Sell 7,877 shares of Cellectis.ARK Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK) has a particular focus on disruptive innovation across multiple industries, but primarily tech. Some of the biggest names are in this fund, including Tesla, Roku, Square, Zillow and Spotify. Net assets for this fund are currently $16.2 billion. Here are some notable trades in this fund: NO TRADESARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKQ) is focused, unsurprisingly, on companies that are in the field of autonomous technology and robotics, specifically ones that are disruptively innovating. Big names in this fund include Tesla, Alphabet, JD.com, Baidu and Iridium. Net assets for this fund are currently $2.2 billion. Here are some notable trades in the fund: NO TRADESARK Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKW) is focused on companies that are disruptively innovating within the theme of the next generation of the internet. Some names in this fund are similar to the others, including Tesla, Square, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Facebook and Snap. Net assets for this fund are currently $3.8 billion. Here are the notable trades in the fund: NO TRADESArk Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKX) is focused primarily on companies developing technology around spaceflight. Big names in this fund include Trimble, Kratos, Nvidia, Amazon and Iridium. Net assets for this fund are currently $468.9 million. There was one notable purchase in the fund: NO TRADESCheck out all the trades here:Catherine Wood, the CEO and CIO of ARK Investment Management, is a minority and nonvoting shareholder of 24/7 Wall St., owner of 247wallst.com.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9946913715,"gmtCreate":1680834070337,"gmtModify":1680834073212,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt&nbsp;","listText":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt&nbsp;","text":"Tiger's Easter egg hunt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9946913715","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9041336193,"gmtCreate":1656007042812,"gmtModify":1676535748968,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9041336193","repostId":"9022524674","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9022524674,"gmtCreate":1653552819200,"gmtModify":1676535303082,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Time Travel with Tiger, Join the Memorabilia Adventure Now!!!","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi\n \n","listText":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","text":"Happy Birthday to TIGER!!! This year, we have prepared a time machine to go on an adventure with you. Come and find surprising gifts as we stroll down memory lane!There are so many wonderful little stories in our Tiger Quest. Collect as many coins as you can in the game, these will be your basic points of this game. Apart from one mini-game mission for SG/AU/NZ, the games will be open every week, and there are endless treasures waiting for you to discover. Points can be redeemed for multiple rewards, and you can win a share of up to USD 200,000 worth of prizes! Want to win extra points? Check out these mini-games, try them, stay with us and be PAWSITIVE!Remember to collect the cards and spell out \"T.I.G.E.R\" during your journey for a chance to receive the limited edition 8th Anniversary Gi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022524674","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"97af7069aa6440eab7c85601f72b41b1","tweetId":"9022524674","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/5836ee3f387702302012189230/1IRQdazMc4YA.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f2462b20b2a9a2483ae56cbb54dcb2a7"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067585478,"gmtCreate":1652489670694,"gmtModify":1676535109626,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067585478","repostId":"1176148703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176148703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652488034,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176148703?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176148703","media":"investorplace","summary":"As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUN","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>As <b>Terra</b>(<b>LUNA-USD</b>) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA crypto</li><li>Founder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the network</li><li>Analysts are torn over whether LUNA prices will ever recover</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9916c23f2f928ab45c1902098e97c8\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: David Sandron / Shutterstock.com</p><p>It’s difficult to have faith in Terra at this point. The network is the talk of crypto bulls and crypto bears alike in the face of a major price meltdown this week. Those still invested are either buying in while prices are incredibly low, or they’ve lost so much they are just hoping for a miracle. Is LUNA going to come back from this?</p><p>Do Kwon, the founder of the Terra network, sure seems to think so. Kwon has been trying to assuage investors since the projectbegan to seriously tank. He is doing this through the developers’three-pronged approachto salvaging the product.</p><p>The first two parts of the plan involve a large <b>TerraUSD</b>(<b>UST-USD</b>) burn, in order to stabilize the token back at $1. Over 371 million UST on the <b>Ethereum</b>(<b><u>ETH-USD</u></b>) network will be burned, as will all UST remaining in the Terra community pool. The third prong of this plan involves staking 240 million LUNA to stabilize governance and keep a whale from seizing control over the network.</p><p>Atop these plans, the developers are also taking on a community proposal to increase the burn rate of UST. Moreover, they temporarilyhalted the blockchain completely, freezing all unsettled transactions. This was to prevent users from taking advantage of the low price of LUNA and buying it all up at once.</p><h2>Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? Analysts Can’t Decide.</h2><p>While the LUNA crypto is now trading at only a fraction of 1 cent, investors might be throwing their hands up in the air. Can this bailout plan save the Terra network?</p><p>Many have their doubts. It seems that most talk about the network online is quite negative, with lots of investors already considering the project dead. <i>The Motley Fool’s</i>Trevor Jennewine isadvising investors steer clear of LUNAnow, even with its exceptionally low cost. Price predicting websites like<i>CoinPriceForecast</i>and <i>DigitalCoinPrice</i>see no growth opportunities for the network on the horizon either. The two sites predict an end-of-year price of 6 cents and less than 1 cent, respectively, for LUNA.</p><p>There are others still with some hope still for the network. Crypto analysis website <i>InvestingCube</i>said that a LUNA crypto price recoverycould very well be a possibility. The report suggests that UST returning to $1 could catalyze a LUNA gain, allowing it to regain its footing. Price prediction site <i>WalletInvestor</i>is remaining extremely bullish with its 12-month LUNA prediction. It expects the coin to reach $151 by May 2023. Meanwhile, peer outlet<i>Gov Capital</i>is predicting a $108 price for the coin in the same time frame.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-14 08:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA cryptoFounder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the networkAnalysts are torn...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176148703","content_text":"As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA cryptoFounder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the networkAnalysts are torn over whether LUNA prices will ever recoverSource: David Sandron / Shutterstock.comIt’s difficult to have faith in Terra at this point. The network is the talk of crypto bulls and crypto bears alike in the face of a major price meltdown this week. Those still invested are either buying in while prices are incredibly low, or they’ve lost so much they are just hoping for a miracle. Is LUNA going to come back from this?Do Kwon, the founder of the Terra network, sure seems to think so. Kwon has been trying to assuage investors since the projectbegan to seriously tank. He is doing this through the developers’three-pronged approachto salvaging the product.The first two parts of the plan involve a large TerraUSD(UST-USD) burn, in order to stabilize the token back at $1. Over 371 million UST on the Ethereum(ETH-USD) network will be burned, as will all UST remaining in the Terra community pool. The third prong of this plan involves staking 240 million LUNA to stabilize governance and keep a whale from seizing control over the network.Atop these plans, the developers are also taking on a community proposal to increase the burn rate of UST. Moreover, they temporarilyhalted the blockchain completely, freezing all unsettled transactions. This was to prevent users from taking advantage of the low price of LUNA and buying it all up at once.Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? Analysts Can’t Decide.While the LUNA crypto is now trading at only a fraction of 1 cent, investors might be throwing their hands up in the air. Can this bailout plan save the Terra network?Many have their doubts. It seems that most talk about the network online is quite negative, with lots of investors already considering the project dead. The Motley Fool’sTrevor Jennewine isadvising investors steer clear of LUNAnow, even with its exceptionally low cost. Price predicting websites likeCoinPriceForecastand DigitalCoinPricesee no growth opportunities for the network on the horizon either. The two sites predict an end-of-year price of 6 cents and less than 1 cent, respectively, for LUNA.There are others still with some hope still for the network. Crypto analysis website InvestingCubesaid that a LUNA crypto price recoverycould very well be a possibility. The report suggests that UST returning to $1 could catalyze a LUNA gain, allowing it to regain its footing. Price prediction site WalletInvestoris remaining extremely bullish with its 12-month LUNA prediction. It expects the coin to reach $151 by May 2023. Meanwhile, peer outletGov Capitalis predicting a $108 price for the coin in the same time frame.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918512383,"gmtCreate":1664414463242,"gmtModify":1676537449936,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581491367518582\">@nez</a>:Great article! I would like to share it.","listText":"//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581491367518582\">@nez</a>:Great article! I would like to share it.","text":"//@nez:Great article! I would like to share it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918512383","repostId":"2250969031","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2250969031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657313861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250969031?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-09 04:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250969031","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about w","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1536px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>solarseven</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market<span> timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct?</span></p> <p>Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors.</p> <h2><strong>Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst</strong></h2> <p>I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts.</p> <p>Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”</p> <ul> <li>Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months.</li> <li>Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline.</li> <li>Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19<sup>th</sup> - down 20.5%.</li> <li>Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.</li> </ul> <p>Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"481\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296018438455.png\" width=\"424\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Fidelity</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If you had invested $10,000 and missed <em>only the five best return days</em> for the S&amp;P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation.</p> <p>But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds:</p> <blockquote><p>“…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.”</p></blockquote> <p>Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, <em>no single market timer was able to make money.</em></p> <h2><strong>Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation</strong></h2> <p>Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), <em>before </em>investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance.</p> <p>The Journal study concluded:</p> <p><em>“TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. <strong>Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes</strong> <strong>and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016.</strong> Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.”</em></p> <p>The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit.</p> <p>Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors <em>will</em> benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p> <h2><strong>Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes</strong></h2> <p><em>Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance</em></p> <p>The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"319\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572961514492779.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are <em>tendencies,</em> but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic.</p> <p>The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"360\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296249598942.png\" width=\"543\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable </em></p> <p>These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script.</p> <p>For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation.</p> <p>In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> S&amp;P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009.</p> <p>TIP, the popular inflation-protected <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation.</p> <p>To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"402\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572963084607856.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we?</p> <h2><strong>Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios</strong></h2> <p>Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964295018613.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964784307003.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge.</p> <p><em>All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns</em></p> <p>The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"287\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572966442789838.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author, lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification</em></p> <p>The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"392\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572967467861977.png\" width=\"506\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%.</p> <p><em>The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio</em></p> <p>The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"393\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572968207781363.png\" width=\"494\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%.</p> <p>These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns.</p> <h2><strong>Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now</strong></h2> <p><em>Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead</em></p> <p>In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&amp;P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&amp;P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average <em>real</em> equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks.</p> <p>Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&amp;P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year.</p> <p>Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns.</p> <p><em>The Need for Uncorrelated Assets</em></p> <p>Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"248\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572969672973769.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>\"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years.</p> <p>That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective.</p> <p><em>An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms</em></p> <p>Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this.</p> <p><em>An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. </em>YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery.</p> <p>The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism.</p> <h2><strong>A More Nuanced Approach</strong></h2> <p>Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences.</p> <p>For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples.</p> <p>In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published.</p> <h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-09 04:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAA":"ProShares Ultra SmallCap600","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","GSG":"iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2250969031","content_text":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct? Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. Two example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors. Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts. Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”  Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months. Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline. Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19th - down 20.5%. Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.  Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.   Fidelity If you had invested $10,000 and missed only the five best return days for the S&P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation. But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds: “…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.” Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, no single market timer was able to make money. Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation: “Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.” The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), before investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance. The Journal study concluded: “TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016. Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.” The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit. Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors will benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!” Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists. Author These are tendencies, but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic. The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.   Author Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable  These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script. For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation. In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009. TIP, the popular inflation-protected Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation. To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time. BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022 No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we? Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.   lazyportfolioetf.com   lazyportfolioetf.com These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge. All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions. Author, lazyportfolioetf.com The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%. The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%. These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns. Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average real equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks. Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year. Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns. The Need for Uncorrelated Assets Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case. \"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years. That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective. An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this. An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery. The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism. A More Nuanced Approach Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences. For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples. In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published. Conclusion Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919077243,"gmtCreate":1663717137383,"gmtModify":1676537320484,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article! I would like to share it.","listText":"Great article! I would like to share it.","text":"Great article! I would like to share it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919077243","repostId":"2250969031","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2250969031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657313861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250969031?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-09 04:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250969031","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about w","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1536px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>solarseven</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market<span> timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct?</span></p> <p>Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors.</p> <h2><strong>Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst</strong></h2> <p>I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts.</p> <p>Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”</p> <ul> <li>Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months.</li> <li>Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline.</li> <li>Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19<sup>th</sup> - down 20.5%.</li> <li>Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.</li> </ul> <p>Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"481\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296018438455.png\" width=\"424\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Fidelity</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If you had invested $10,000 and missed <em>only the five best return days</em> for the S&amp;P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation.</p> <p>But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds:</p> <blockquote><p>“…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.”</p></blockquote> <p>Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, <em>no single market timer was able to make money.</em></p> <h2><strong>Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation</strong></h2> <p>Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), <em>before </em>investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance.</p> <p>The Journal study concluded:</p> <p><em>“TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. <strong>Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes</strong> <strong>and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016.</strong> Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.”</em></p> <p>The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit.</p> <p>Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors <em>will</em> benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p> <h2><strong>Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes</strong></h2> <p><em>Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance</em></p> <p>The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"319\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572961514492779.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are <em>tendencies,</em> but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic.</p> <p>The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"360\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296249598942.png\" width=\"543\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable </em></p> <p>These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script.</p> <p>For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation.</p> <p>In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> S&amp;P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009.</p> <p>TIP, the popular inflation-protected <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation.</p> <p>To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"402\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572963084607856.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we?</p> <h2><strong>Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios</strong></h2> <p>Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964295018613.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964784307003.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge.</p> <p><em>All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns</em></p> <p>The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"287\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572966442789838.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author, lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification</em></p> <p>The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"392\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572967467861977.png\" width=\"506\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%.</p> <p><em>The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio</em></p> <p>The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"393\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572968207781363.png\" width=\"494\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%.</p> <p>These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns.</p> <h2><strong>Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now</strong></h2> <p><em>Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead</em></p> <p>In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&amp;P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&amp;P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average <em>real</em> equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks.</p> <p>Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&amp;P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year.</p> <p>Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns.</p> <p><em>The Need for Uncorrelated Assets</em></p> <p>Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"248\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572969672973769.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>\"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years.</p> <p>That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective.</p> <p><em>An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms</em></p> <p>Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this.</p> <p><em>An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. </em>YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery.</p> <p>The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism.</p> <h2><strong>A More Nuanced Approach</strong></h2> <p>Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences.</p> <p>For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples.</p> <p>In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published.</p> <h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-09 04:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAA":"ProShares Ultra SmallCap600","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","GSG":"iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2250969031","content_text":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct? Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. Two example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors. Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts. Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”  Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months. Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline. Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19th - down 20.5%. Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.  Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.   Fidelity If you had invested $10,000 and missed only the five best return days for the S&P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation. But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds: “…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.” Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, no single market timer was able to make money. Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation: “Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.” The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), before investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance. The Journal study concluded: “TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016. Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.” The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit. Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors will benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!” Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists. Author These are tendencies, but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic. The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.   Author Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable  These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script. For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation. In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009. TIP, the popular inflation-protected Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation. To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time. BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022 No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we? Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.   lazyportfolioetf.com   lazyportfolioetf.com These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge. All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions. Author, lazyportfolioetf.com The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%. The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%. These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns. Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average real equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks. Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year. Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns. The Need for Uncorrelated Assets Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case. \"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years. That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective. An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this. An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery. The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism. A More Nuanced Approach Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences. For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples. In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published. Conclusion Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9936191778,"gmtCreate":1662720558894,"gmtModify":1676537126800,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581491367518582\">@nez</a>:Reshare","listText":"//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581491367518582\">@nez</a>:Reshare","text":"//@nez:Reshare","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9936191778","repostId":"2250969031","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2250969031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657313861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250969031?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-09 04:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250969031","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about w","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1536px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>solarseven</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market<span> timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct?</span></p> <p>Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors.</p> <h2><strong>Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst</strong></h2> <p>I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts.</p> <p>Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”</p> <ul> <li>Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months.</li> <li>Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline.</li> <li>Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19<sup>th</sup> - down 20.5%.</li> <li>Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.</li> </ul> <p>Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"481\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296018438455.png\" width=\"424\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Fidelity</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If you had invested $10,000 and missed <em>only the five best return days</em> for the S&amp;P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation.</p> <p>But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds:</p> <blockquote><p>“…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.”</p></blockquote> <p>Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, <em>no single market timer was able to make money.</em></p> <h2><strong>Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation</strong></h2> <p>Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), <em>before </em>investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance.</p> <p>The Journal study concluded:</p> <p><em>“TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. <strong>Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes</strong> <strong>and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016.</strong> Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.”</em></p> <p>The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit.</p> <p>Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors <em>will</em> benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p> <h2><strong>Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes</strong></h2> <p><em>Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance</em></p> <p>The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"319\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572961514492779.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are <em>tendencies,</em> but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic.</p> <p>The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"360\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296249598942.png\" width=\"543\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable </em></p> <p>These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script.</p> <p>For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation.</p> <p>In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> S&amp;P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009.</p> <p>TIP, the popular inflation-protected <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation.</p> <p>To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"402\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572963084607856.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we?</p> <h2><strong>Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios</strong></h2> <p>Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964295018613.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964784307003.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge.</p> <p><em>All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns</em></p> <p>The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"287\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572966442789838.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author, lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification</em></p> <p>The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"392\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572967467861977.png\" width=\"506\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%.</p> <p><em>The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio</em></p> <p>The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"393\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572968207781363.png\" width=\"494\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%.</p> <p>These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns.</p> <h2><strong>Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now</strong></h2> <p><em>Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead</em></p> <p>In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&amp;P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&amp;P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average <em>real</em> equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks.</p> <p>Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&amp;P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year.</p> <p>Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns.</p> <p><em>The Need for Uncorrelated Assets</em></p> <p>Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"248\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572969672973769.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>\"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years.</p> <p>That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective.</p> <p><em>An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms</em></p> <p>Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this.</p> <p><em>An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. </em>YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery.</p> <p>The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism.</p> <h2><strong>A More Nuanced Approach</strong></h2> <p>Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences.</p> <p>For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples.</p> <p>In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published.</p> <h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-09 04:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAA":"ProShares Ultra SmallCap600","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","GSG":"iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2250969031","content_text":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct? Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. Two example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors. Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts. Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”  Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months. Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline. Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19th - down 20.5%. Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.  Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.   Fidelity If you had invested $10,000 and missed only the five best return days for the S&P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation. But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds: “…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.” Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, no single market timer was able to make money. Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation: “Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.” The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), before investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance. The Journal study concluded: “TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016. Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.” The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit. Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors will benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!” Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists. Author These are tendencies, but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic. The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.   Author Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable  These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script. For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation. In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009. TIP, the popular inflation-protected Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation. To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time. BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022 No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we? Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.   lazyportfolioetf.com   lazyportfolioetf.com These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge. All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions. Author, lazyportfolioetf.com The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%. The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%. These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns. Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average real equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks. Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year. Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns. The Need for Uncorrelated Assets Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case. \"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years. That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective. An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this. An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery. The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism. A More Nuanced Approach Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences. For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples. In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published. Conclusion Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930522319,"gmtCreate":1661989548533,"gmtModify":1676536617304,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reshare","listText":"Reshare","text":"Reshare","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930522319","repostId":"2250969031","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2250969031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657313861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250969031?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-09 04:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250969031","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about w","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1536px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>solarseven</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market<span> timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct?</span></p> <p>Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors.</p> <h2><strong>Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst</strong></h2> <p>I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts.</p> <p>Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”</p> <ul> <li>Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months.</li> <li>Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline.</li> <li>Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19<sup>th</sup> - down 20.5%.</li> <li>Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.</li> </ul> <p>Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"481\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296018438455.png\" width=\"424\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Fidelity</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If you had invested $10,000 and missed <em>only the five best return days</em> for the S&amp;P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation.</p> <p>But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds:</p> <blockquote><p>“…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.”</p></blockquote> <p>Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, <em>no single market timer was able to make money.</em></p> <h2><strong>Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation</strong></h2> <p>Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), <em>before </em>investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance.</p> <p>The Journal study concluded:</p> <p><em>“TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. <strong>Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes</strong> <strong>and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016.</strong> Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.”</em></p> <p>The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit.</p> <p>Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors <em>will</em> benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p> <h2><strong>Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes</strong></h2> <p><em>Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance</em></p> <p>The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"319\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572961514492779.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are <em>tendencies,</em> but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic.</p> <p>The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"360\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296249598942.png\" width=\"543\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable </em></p> <p>These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script.</p> <p>For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation.</p> <p>In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> S&amp;P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009.</p> <p>TIP, the popular inflation-protected <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation.</p> <p>To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"402\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572963084607856.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we?</p> <h2><strong>Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios</strong></h2> <p>Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964295018613.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964784307003.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge.</p> <p><em>All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns</em></p> <p>The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"287\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572966442789838.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author, lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification</em></p> <p>The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"392\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572967467861977.png\" width=\"506\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%.</p> <p><em>The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio</em></p> <p>The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"393\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572968207781363.png\" width=\"494\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%.</p> <p>These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns.</p> <h2><strong>Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now</strong></h2> <p><em>Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead</em></p> <p>In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&amp;P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&amp;P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average <em>real</em> equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks.</p> <p>Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&amp;P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year.</p> <p>Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns.</p> <p><em>The Need for Uncorrelated Assets</em></p> <p>Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"248\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572969672973769.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>\"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years.</p> <p>That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective.</p> <p><em>An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms</em></p> <p>Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this.</p> <p><em>An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. </em>YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery.</p> <p>The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism.</p> <h2><strong>A More Nuanced Approach</strong></h2> <p>Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences.</p> <p>For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples.</p> <p>In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published.</p> <h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-09 04:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAA":"ProShares Ultra SmallCap600","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","GSG":"iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2250969031","content_text":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct? Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. Two example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors. Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts. Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”  Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months. Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline. Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19th - down 20.5%. Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.  Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.   Fidelity If you had invested $10,000 and missed only the five best return days for the S&P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation. But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds: “…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.” Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, no single market timer was able to make money. Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation: “Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.” The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), before investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance. The Journal study concluded: “TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016. Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.” The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit. Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors will benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!” Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists. Author These are tendencies, but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic. The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.   Author Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable  These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script. For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation. In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009. TIP, the popular inflation-protected Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation. To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time. BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022 No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we? Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.   lazyportfolioetf.com   lazyportfolioetf.com These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge. All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions. Author, lazyportfolioetf.com The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%. The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%. These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns. Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average real equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks. Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year. Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns. The Need for Uncorrelated Assets Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case. \"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years. That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective. An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this. An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery. The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism. A More Nuanced Approach Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences. For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples. In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published. Conclusion Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9996377425,"gmtCreate":1661128669569,"gmtModify":1676536457226,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Reshare.&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581491367518582\">@nez</a>:Interesting article to share.&nbsp;","listText":"Reshare.&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/3581491367518582\">@nez</a>:Interesting article to share.&nbsp;","text":"Reshare. //@nez:Interesting article to share.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9996377425","repostId":"2250969031","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2250969031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657313861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250969031?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-09 04:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250969031","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about w","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1536px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>solarseven</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market<span> timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct?</span></p> <p>Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors.</p> <h2><strong>Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst</strong></h2> <p>I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts.</p> <p>Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”</p> <ul> <li>Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months.</li> <li>Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline.</li> <li>Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19<sup>th</sup> - down 20.5%.</li> <li>Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.</li> </ul> <p>Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"481\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296018438455.png\" width=\"424\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Fidelity</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If you had invested $10,000 and missed <em>only the five best return days</em> for the S&amp;P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation.</p> <p>But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds:</p> <blockquote><p>“…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.”</p></blockquote> <p>Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, <em>no single market timer was able to make money.</em></p> <h2><strong>Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation</strong></h2> <p>Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), <em>before </em>investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance.</p> <p>The Journal study concluded:</p> <p><em>“TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. <strong>Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes</strong> <strong>and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016.</strong> Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.”</em></p> <p>The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit.</p> <p>Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors <em>will</em> benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p> <h2><strong>Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes</strong></h2> <p><em>Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance</em></p> <p>The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"319\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572961514492779.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are <em>tendencies,</em> but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic.</p> <p>The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"360\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296249598942.png\" width=\"543\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable </em></p> <p>These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script.</p> <p>For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation.</p> <p>In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> S&amp;P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009.</p> <p>TIP, the popular inflation-protected <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation.</p> <p>To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"402\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572963084607856.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we?</p> <h2><strong>Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios</strong></h2> <p>Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964295018613.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964784307003.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge.</p> <p><em>All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns</em></p> <p>The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"287\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572966442789838.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author, lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification</em></p> <p>The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"392\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572967467861977.png\" width=\"506\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%.</p> <p><em>The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio</em></p> <p>The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"393\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572968207781363.png\" width=\"494\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%.</p> <p>These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns.</p> <h2><strong>Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now</strong></h2> <p><em>Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead</em></p> <p>In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&amp;P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&amp;P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average <em>real</em> equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks.</p> <p>Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&amp;P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year.</p> <p>Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns.</p> <p><em>The Need for Uncorrelated Assets</em></p> <p>Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"248\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572969672973769.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>\"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years.</p> <p>That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective.</p> <p><em>An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms</em></p> <p>Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this.</p> <p><em>An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. </em>YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery.</p> <p>The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism.</p> <h2><strong>A More Nuanced Approach</strong></h2> <p>Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences.</p> <p>For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples.</p> <p>In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published.</p> <h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-09 04:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAA":"ProShares Ultra SmallCap600","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","GSG":"iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2250969031","content_text":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct? Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. Two example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors. Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts. Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”  Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months. Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline. Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19th - down 20.5%. Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.  Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.   Fidelity If you had invested $10,000 and missed only the five best return days for the S&P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation. But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds: “…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.” Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, no single market timer was able to make money. Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation: “Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.” The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), before investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance. The Journal study concluded: “TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016. Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.” The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit. Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors will benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!” Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists. Author These are tendencies, but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic. The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.   Author Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable  These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script. For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation. In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009. TIP, the popular inflation-protected Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation. To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time. BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022 No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we? Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.   lazyportfolioetf.com   lazyportfolioetf.com These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge. All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions. Author, lazyportfolioetf.com The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%. The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%. These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns. Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average real equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks. Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year. Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns. The Need for Uncorrelated Assets Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case. \"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years. That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective. An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this. An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery. The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism. A More Nuanced Approach Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences. For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples. In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published. Conclusion Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904116372,"gmtCreate":1660009050599,"gmtModify":1703476863542,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting article to share.&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting article to share.&nbsp;","text":"Interesting article to share.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904116372","repostId":"2250969031","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2250969031","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1657313861,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2250969031?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-09 04:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250969031","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about w","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1536px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1328220487/image_1328220487.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>solarseven</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market<span> timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct?</span></p> <p>Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWOA.U\">Two</a> example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors.</p> <h2><strong>Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst</strong></h2> <p>I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts.</p> <p>Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”</p> <ul> <li>Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months.</li> <li>Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline.</li> <li>Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19<sup>th</sup> - down 20.5%.</li> <li>Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.</li> </ul> <p>Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"481\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296018438455.png\" width=\"424\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Fidelity</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>If you had invested $10,000 and missed <em>only the five best return days</em> for the S&amp;P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation.</p> <p>But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds:</p> <blockquote><p>“…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.”</p></blockquote> <p>Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, <em>no single market timer was able to make money.</em></p> <h2><strong>Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation</strong></h2> <p>Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), <em>before </em>investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance.</p> <p>The Journal study concluded:</p> <p><em>“TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. <strong>Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes</strong> <strong>and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016.</strong> Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.”</em></p> <p>The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit.</p> <p>Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors <em>will</em> benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”</p> <h2><strong>Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes</strong></h2> <p><em>Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance</em></p> <p>The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"319\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572961514492779.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are <em>tendencies,</em> but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic.</p> <p>The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"360\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-1657296249598942.png\" width=\"543\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Author</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable </em></p> <p>These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script.</p> <p>For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation.</p> <p>In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a> S&amp;P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009.</p> <p>TIP, the popular inflation-protected <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF</a> is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation.</p> <p>To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"402\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572963084607856.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we?</p> <h2><strong>Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios</strong></h2> <p>Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964295018613.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572964784307003.png\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge.</p> <p><em>All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns</em></p> <p>The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"287\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572966442789838.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Author, lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p><em>The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification</em></p> <p>The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"392\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572967467861977.png\" width=\"506\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%.</p> <p><em>The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio</em></p> <p>The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"393\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572968207781363.png\" width=\"494\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>lazyportfolioetf.com</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%.</p> <p>These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns.</p> <h2><strong>Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now</strong></h2> <p><em>Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead</em></p> <p>In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&amp;P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&amp;P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average <em>real</em> equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks.</p> <p>Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&amp;P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year.</p> <p>Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns.</p> <p><em>The Need for Uncorrelated Assets</em></p> <p>Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"248\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/7/8/6555621-16572969672973769.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>\"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years.</p> <p>That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective.</p> <p><em>An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms</em></p> <p>Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this.</p> <p><em>An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. </em>YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery.</p> <p>The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted:</p> <blockquote><p><em>“The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.”</em></p></blockquote> <p>Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism.</p> <h2><strong>A More Nuanced Approach</strong></h2> <p>Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences.</p> <p>For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples.</p> <p>In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published.</p> <h2><strong>Conclusion</strong></h2> <p>Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Market Forecasts And Adopt An All-Weather Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-09 04:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SAA":"ProShares Ultra SmallCap600","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","VTI":"大盘指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","GSG":"iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4522459-ignore-market-forecasts-and-adopt-an-all-weather-portfolio","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2250969031","content_text":"solarseven Introduction The current market turmoil has fueled many different expert opinions about what investors should do. Jeremy Grantham and Jim Rogers expect one of the worst bear markets ever. Some say to buy stocks - the market is bottoming. Technical analysts and market timers tell us what levels signal downside or upside ahead. Some adhere to the traditional 60-40 stock/bond mix. Others tell us to hide out in defensive stocks and inflation hedges like commodities. Some say to ditch bonds due to inflation and rising rates. What to do with all these opinions? Who will be correct? Here I make a case to ignore the forecasts and hold an index-based, all-weather portfolio for the long run. We will look at the track record of the pros with market timing and tactical asset allocation, and why most don’t succeed. Two example all-weather portfolios demonstrate a better way. I’ll explain why I believe now is a particularly good time to adopt an all-weather portfolio. Finally, I’ll share my thoughts about a more nuanced approach for advanced and aggressive investors. Market Timing is Challenging At Best, Destructive at Worst I recommend against market timing. Watching and reading expert opinions on this can be interesting, but in my opinion isn’t a sound way to invest. Let’s look at the facts. Here are a few key takeaways from my “How Market Timing Destroys Wealth:”  Five of the seven bear markets since 1987 were very short, with a duration of 1-4 months. Six of the seven bears experienced sharp, double-digit declines over a mere five-day period. If you didn’t time your exit exactly right and held stocks during the worst five-day period, you would have incurred 40% of the entire bear market decline. Six of seven bears experienced one-day declines of more than 5%, with two experiencing double-digit one day declines. The 1987 bear included the granddaddy of them all on October 19th - down 20.5%. Market timers needed to be nimble and accurate during these events, as the market moved rapidly and violently in both directions.  Not only were there sharp drops over short time periods, many of the market’s strongest up days happened during and near the end of bear markets. Fidelity’s research shows the dramatic negative impact of not being invested during the market’s best days.   Fidelity If you had invested $10,000 and missed only the five best return days for the S&P 500 during the 40 year period of 1980-2020, you would have missed out on a whopping 38% of the total return. That is an astounding $361,941 difference in wealth accumulation. But what about the pros’ market timing performance? “Investment Policy,” by Charles Ellis, referenced a study of 100 pension funds: “…their experience with market timing found that while all the funds had engaged in at least some market timing, not one of the funds had improved its rate of return. In fact, 89 of the 100 lost as a result of timing and their losses averaged a daunting 4.5% over the five-year period.” Then there are market timing experts. Wim Antoons’ paper, Market Timing: Opportunities and Risk, cited predictions from 68 market timing experts between 1999 and 2012. The majority (62%) were accurate less than 50% of the time. He also looked at 6,582 forecasts between 2005 and 2012 and found that after transaction costs, no single market timer was able to make money. Even The Pros Aren’t Good At Tactical Asset Allocation Many “experts” tell us what economic scenario will unfold and which asset classes will be best. But what do the data show about the track record of the pros in shifting in and out of asset classes? First, a definition. Vanguard’s paper, “A Primer on Tactical Asset Allocation Strategy Evaluation” defined tactical asset allocation: “Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts. Its objective is to systematically exploit inefficiencies or temporary imbalances in equilibrium values among different asset or sub-asset classes.” The paper showed that during the period 1995-2009, their sample of 24 professionally managed U.S. stock/bond TAA mutual funds added 8 basis points a month of excess return (vs. a traditional U.S. 60-40 portfolio), before investment management fees. That’s roughly 1% per year of alpha. However, if you consider fees and taxes, you get a different picture. According to the Journal of Index Investing, average fees for these types of funds are currently 1.39% per year, which puts the funds under water relative to the 60-40. And turnover for these funds was a whopping 289% per year. That generates taxes, further degrading performance. The Journal study concluded: “TAA funds on average had about 49% of their assets in U.S. equity, about 33% in bonds, about 15% in foreign equities, about 8% in foreign bonds and about 13% in cash. Tactical allocation mutual funds underperformed all benchmark indexes and had lower absolute and risk-adjusted performance from January 1994 to October 2016. Investors would have been better off with passively managed funds that followed benchmark indexes.” The weight of the evidence above suggests investors would be best off not to shift in and out of asset classes based on forecasts. Like a sailor, you just don’t know when or where the next storm will hit. Yet, as the examples below demonstrate, investors will benefit from maintaining long-term positions in many different and uncorrelated asset classes, regardless of market conditions. Once that is in place, we can follow the wisdom of the late John Bogle: “Don’t do something, just stand there!” Why The Pros Can’t Consistently Pick The Best Asset Classes Common Thinking About Financial Conditions and Asset Class Performance The chart below shows various scenarios and which asset classes tend to perform well. Much of this is commonly cited by financial market strategists. Author These are tendencies, but there are no absolutes. The situation is complicated. Results usually depend on several factors in combination, not the least of which is investor sentiment. And the latter sometimes defies financial market logic. The most dominant forces to consider are economic growth and inflation. The chart below depicts four combinations of those factors and which assets they tend to favor.   Author Asset Class Behavior Is Often Unpredictable  These guidelines have limitations in portfolio application. Economic scenarios ebb and flow through cycles. And it’s notoriously difficult to time them. Even worse, investors can be right predicting a financial scenario, but wrong about which assets benefit. Sometimes the asset class doesn’t follow the script. For example, many rely on gold as an inflation hedge. The metal surged to $2070 in the summer of 2020, but recently traded under $1750, despite surging and persistent inflation. In the early 2000’s, commodities were touted as having negative correlation to equities. That was the case for the previous several decades. Therefore they should serve as excellent portfolio diversifiers. Among other institutional fans, Harvard’s endowment took commodities from 6% of its portfolio in 2000 to 18% in 2008 - just before they crashed. The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) dropped along with the market, down 70% between July 2008 and February 2009. TIP, the popular inflation-protected Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF is down 8.6% YTD. This was largely due to the rise in real interest rates, which more than offset the effects of surging inflation. To be sure, asset class performance varies year to year. Performance cycles often run for 5-10 years. The “periodic table” of asset classes below demonstrates the constant shifting of leaders and laggards over time. BlackRock Investment Institute, data from Refinitiv, June 2022 No wonder even the top-paid professionals, supported by hordes of research teams armed with powerful analytics can’t consistently forecast the best asset classes. If they can’t, can we? Two Well-Performing All-Weather Portfolios Rather than trying to time the market or forecast asset class performance, there is a more reliable way to invest: the all-weather portfolio. There are many viable all-weather portfolios that suit a range of investor goals and risk-reward preferences. To demonstrate, I chose two simple portfolios below from a list of lazy portfolios.   lazyportfolioetf.com   lazyportfolioetf.com These are both index-based and diversified across major asset classes. A key element is that these portfolios have components with low or negative correlations. This reduces variability and drawdowns. The commodity component has been particularly useful during this year’s inflation surge. All-Weather Portfolios Compete Well Against the 60-40 While Limiting Drawdowns The table below shows performance data spanning the past 25 years. This includes the bear markets of 2000-2002, 2008-2009, the short pandemic bear of 2020 and the current market break. It also includes the lost decade of 2000-2009 and the post GFC bull market of 2009-2020. Hence, it provides a good gauge of performance during various market weather conditions. Author, lazyportfolioetf.com The Ray Dalio Portfolio Competes Well Versus the 60-40, With Less Risk and Better Diversification The Ray Dalio portfolio has a lower equity allocation than the 60-40 and less risk. Yet it gained 7.1% per year. over the past 25 years, edging the 60-40 return of 7.0% per year. And its maximum drawdown was only -13.7% (this year!) versus -30.6% for the 60-40. In this year’s bear market it has outperformed, with a YTD return of -13.7% versus -16.9% for the 60-40. Both have been hurt by a combination of poor equity and bond returns. However the Dalio portfolio benefitted from its gold and commodity positions. It’s notable that earlier this year Dalio dissed bonds. If he is correct, this will not be as effective a portfolio going forward.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Ray Dalio portfolio never had a negative return for a period of three or more years and only 10.46% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were very consistent, ranging from 9.55% to 9.77%. The Marc Faber Portfolio Has Also Performed Well Relative to the Traditional 60-40 Portfolio The Marc Faber portfolio holds 50% stocks, 25% bonds and 25% gold. This makes it comparable to the traditional 60-40 in terms of overall risk (since gold can be considered a risk asset). The portfolio gained 7.3% per year over the past 25 years, ahead of the 7.0% return for the 60-40. And its maximum drawdown in 2008-09 was 28.8% versus the 30.6% drop for the 60-40. This was largely due to the positive performance of gold. YTD the portfolio has also outperformed the 60-40 with a return of -13.1% versus -16.9%.   lazyportfolioetf.com Since 1987 the Marc Faber portfolio never had a negative return for a period of five or more years and only 11.86% of one-year periods had negative returns. Average annual returns for 1-20 year periods were 7.95% - 8.33%. These are rather simple, elegant portfolios that are easy to implement. However, none are fully diversified in my view. They aren’t meant to be recommendations. Rather they demonstrate the power of an all-weather portfolio in helping patient investors stay the course and achieve solid risk-adjusted returns. Why Adopt An All-weather Portfolio Right Now Weak Stock and Bond Return Prospects Ahead In What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market, I calculated a nominal return range of 1%-6.4%/yr. for the S&P 500 index over the coming decade. Another way to gauge potential returns is via the Shiller CAPE ratio, currently at 30 for the S&P 500. Shiller’s data since 1871 shows that level has been associated with forward ten-year average real equity returns of only 0.9% per year. And similar periods were often associated with nasty bear markets, such as those following the 2000 and 2007 peaks. Many are comparing current markets to the 1970s. During the stagflationary period of 1970-1979, the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasuries returned 5.9% and 5.5% per year, respectively. A simple 60-40 portfolio returned 5.7% per year. That doesn’t sound bad until you factor in annual inflation of 7.2%, resulting in a real return of -1.5% per year. Historically high bond valuations coupled with high and uncertain levels of inflation also signal weak bond returns. Bond yields are a good forecaster. If we use today’s BND ETF yield of 3.4% and combine that with U.S. equity returns of say 4% per year, the 60-40 portfolio would generate an annualized return of only 3.76% per year over the coming decade. And if inflation continues to run hot, 60-40 investors could easily face negative real returns. The Need for Uncorrelated Assets Over most of the past 20+ years, stocks and bonds were negatively correlated, such that the 60-40 portfolio provided good diversification during bear markets. However, the chart below shows this has not always been the case. \"Equity-Bond Correlation: A Historical Perspective, 2017, Graham Capital From 1960-2000 the two were positively correlated. In the Great Depression era correlations shifted between positive and negative. So far this year, the two have been positively correlated, hurting investors with more traditional portfolios. This also damaged the performance of the two example all-weather portfolios this year. As a result, it’s very possible those portfolios may not be as effective over the coming decade as in the past 20 years. That’s why I believe it is vital to own other non-correlated assets. This can include commodities, including gold and silver. Also useful are attractively valued foreign equities and bonds, which provide currency diversification. Other real assets such as MLPs and REITs can also be effective. An All-Weather Portfolio Helps Investors Ride Out Market Storms Based on my 35+ years of investing, I believe a critical element of investing success is avoiding significant losses and adhering to a consistent approach over time. Those who have accumulated hard-earned wealth over many decades and even younger investors who benefitted from the post-Great Financial Crisis recovery will appreciate this. An all-weather portfolio limits drawdowns. YTD through June 30, the Vanguard Total Market Index Fund (VTI) was down 21.3%. Certainly anyone with significant equity exposure has faced considerable stress. This can lead to bad decisions. I learned this lesson back in 1987 after the flash crash recovery. The data showing the underperformance of mutual fund holders versus the funds they own demonstrates that many buy high and sell low. Indeed, Warren Buffet noted: “The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.” Given today’s U.S. valuations and extraordinary financial conditions, we are likely entering a highly challenging era for financial markets. Already this decade the market has experienced two selloffs – the 34% drop during the pandemic onset and this year’s 22% drop. These are times when an all-weather portfolio is particularly effective. It is as much a strategy decision as it is a behavioral support mechanism. A More Nuanced Approach Many investors won’t be comfortable adopting these example portfolios, especially those who are more aggressive. That’s why the approach can and should be customized according to investors’ ability, need and willingness to take risk. It can also be refined to include more asset classes with customized weights based on investors’ risk-reward preferences. For the past several years on SeekingAlpha, I have described why I believe the financial markets are in an unprecedented and highly risky state. Therefore my own all-weather portfolio tilts allocations towards asset classes that are likely to protect against the most damaging scenarios. This approach may not suit all investors, but supports my investing goals which are conservative and emphasize wealth preservation. But as I acknowledged above, no one knows what the climate will be going forward, so I also hold assets that are likely to do well in a variety of conditions, including rosy ones. To better diversify, I also utilize additional asset classes not shown in these examples. In my next SeekingAlpha article submission, I will share my all-weather portfolio and the rationale behind it. If you haven’t already, please consider following me to be notified when that is published. Conclusion Market timing can be destructive to your wealth. It is extremely difficult to forecast economic conditions, investor sentiment and the resulting performance of asset classes. Adopting an all-weather portfolio and maintaining constant allocations avoids these challenges. They are time-tested and perform well in many different market conditions. Perhaps most importantly, they allow investors to sleep well at night, lowering the urge to make rash exits near market bottoms.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083247382,"gmtCreate":1650128040250,"gmtModify":1676534652903,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>long term prospect?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a>long term prospect?&nbsp;","text":"$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$long term prospect?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083247382","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9083081494,"gmtCreate":1650049339437,"gmtModify":1676534635751,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😃","listText":"😃","text":"😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9083081494","repostId":"9089493709","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9089493709,"gmtCreate":1650015557023,"gmtModify":1676534629670,"author":{"id":"3527667670880462","authorId":"3527667670880462","name":"OptionsTutor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5496ca83f1c81b8c311afcb3ea30bc8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667670880462","authorIdStr":"3527667670880462"},"themes":[],"title":"The Options Expiration Issues about Automatic Exercise and After-Hours Risk","htmlText":"“What happens if I am long options, and they finish in-the-money?” … “Will I be assigned?” … and et cetera.&nbsp; Hopefully, I can walk through some common expiration-afternoon questions here and shed some light on the process. Automatic Exercise First, the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) automatically exercises options whose official close is one penny or more in-the-money.&nbsp; Those holding long calls would buy 100 shares for each call they owned after the close on Friday afternoon.&nbsp; Those with short calls&nbsp;might&nbsp;sell 100 shares for each call they were short as of the close.&nbsp; The short does not control the exercise. After-Hours Activity what happens if the stock price moves after 4 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday?&nbsp; As any of you who trade in the after-hours marke","listText":"“What happens if I am long options, and they finish in-the-money?” … “Will I be assigned?” … and et cetera.&nbsp; Hopefully, I can walk through some common expiration-afternoon questions here and shed some light on the process. Automatic Exercise First, the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) automatically exercises options whose official close is one penny or more in-the-money.&nbsp; Those holding long calls would buy 100 shares for each call they owned after the close on Friday afternoon.&nbsp; Those with short calls&nbsp;might&nbsp;sell 100 shares for each call they were short as of the close.&nbsp; The short does not control the exercise. After-Hours Activity what happens if the stock price moves after 4 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday?&nbsp; As any of you who trade in the after-hours marke","text":"“What happens if I am long options, and they finish in-the-money?” … “Will I be assigned?” … and et cetera. Hopefully, I can walk through some common expiration-afternoon questions here and shed some light on the process. Automatic Exercise First, the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) automatically exercises options whose official close is one penny or more in-the-money. Those holding long calls would buy 100 shares for each call they owned after the close on Friday afternoon. Those with short calls might sell 100 shares for each call they were short as of the close. The short does not control the exercise. After-Hours Activity what happens if the stock price moves after 4 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday? As any of you who trade in the after-hours marke","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089493709","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":246817328349280,"gmtCreate":1701279440240,"gmtModify":1701279445245,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Value investing is not only buying undervalued company stocks but also buying overvalued company stocks which have the potential to grow even more.&nbsp;","listText":"Value investing is not only buying undervalued company stocks but also buying overvalued company stocks which have the potential to grow even more.&nbsp;","text":"Value investing is not only buying undervalued company stocks but also buying overvalued company stocks which have the potential to grow even more.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/246817328349280","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":205358425890992,"gmtCreate":1691145700827,"gmtModify":1691145703470,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Forecast of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4141429963588842/\">@TigerGpt&nbsp;</a>TigerGPT，your new investing superpower&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/tigerGPT-promotion\">Click to learn more&nbsp;</a>","listText":"Forecast of <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$&nbsp;</a><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/U/4141429963588842/\">@TigerGpt&nbsp;</a>TigerGPT，your new investing superpower&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2023/tigerGPT-promotion\">Click to learn more&nbsp;</a>","text":"Forecast of $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ @TigerGpt TigerGPT，your new investing superpower Click to learn more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/205358425890992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4141429963588842","authorId":"4141429963588842","name":"TigerGPT","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5b82af1deb17dfa8f94b4741b9ea2738","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4141429963588842","authorIdStr":"4141429963588842"},"content":"Based on the information provided, it is difficult to provide a specific forecast for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). However, there are a few factors that could affect the performance of SPY: rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and the ongoing earnings season. Additionally, according to a recent analysis, SPY appears to be significantly overvalued based on several metrics and may be on the verge of a bear market. It is important to note that investing always carries some level of risk. Reference articles: S&P 500 futures rise slightly as investors weigh Big Tech earnings, await key jobs data: Live updates The S&P 500 booked a third straight day of declines on Thursday as longer-dated Treasury yields spiked in the wake of the U.S. downgrade by Fitch Ratings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed about 67 points, or 0.2%, ending near 35,215, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.1%. Investors continued to monitor U.S. economy data against a backdrop where the nation's credit worthiness has become a key source of debate. Fitch on Tuesday cut its U.S. ratings to AA+ from AAA, becoming the second major rating agency to do so in the past dozen years.Investors were keeping a close eye on the jump in long-term Treasury yields, with the 10 year rate climbing to 4.188% on Thursday afternoon and the 30-year Treasury yield up near 4.304%, marking the highest yield on both since November 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors also will be digesting quarterly earnings from Apple Inc. and Amazon due after the Investing.com -- The S&P 500 cut some losses Thursday as investors bought the dip in the tech ahead of quarterly results from Amazon and Apple after the market closes.The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, or 22 points, and Nasdaq was flat.Tech cuts losses as investors buy dip in chips; Paypal slumps. Tech cut early-day losses as investors bought the dip in chips from a day earlier, pushing Advanced Micro Devices Inc and NVIDIA Corporation higher to offset losses in Qualcomm .Qualcomm fell more than 10% after the chipmaker’s gloomy update on guidance for the current quarter and third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates weighed on sentiment.While Qualcomm’s guidance was in line with estimates, investors were spooked by “management’s soft commentary around its Dec quarter and incremental headwinds in 2024,” Deutsche Bank said as it downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.“We expect continued softening [in the labor market],” Morgan Stanley S&P 500 falls for a second day as yields rise, earnings season continues: Live updates SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): What Lies Ahead on the Horizon? 3 Reasons Why SPY Could Be On The Cusp Of A Bear Market","text":"Based on the information provided, it is difficult to provide a specific forecast for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). However, there are a few factors that could affect the performance of SPY: rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and the ongoing earnings season. Additionally, according to a recent analysis, SPY appears to be significantly overvalued based on several metrics and may be on the verge of a bear market. It is important to note that investing always carries some level of risk. Reference articles: S&P 500 futures rise slightly as investors weigh Big Tech earnings, await key jobs data: Live updates The S&P 500 booked a third straight day of declines on Thursday as longer-dated Treasury yields spiked in the wake of the U.S. downgrade by Fitch Ratings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed about 67 points, or 0.2%, ending near 35,215, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.1%. Investors continued to monitor U.S. economy data against a backdrop where the nation's credit worthiness has become a key source of debate. Fitch on Tuesday cut its U.S. ratings to AA+ from AAA, becoming the second major rating agency to do so in the past dozen years.Investors were keeping a close eye on the jump in long-term Treasury yields, with the 10 year rate climbing to 4.188% on Thursday afternoon and the 30-year Treasury yield up near 4.304%, marking the highest yield on both since November 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors also will be digesting quarterly earnings from Apple Inc. and Amazon due after the Investing.com -- The S&P 500 cut some losses Thursday as investors bought the dip in the tech ahead of quarterly results from Amazon and Apple after the market closes.The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, or 22 points, and Nasdaq was flat.Tech cuts losses as investors buy dip in chips; Paypal slumps. Tech cut early-day losses as investors bought the dip in chips from a day earlier, pushing Advanced Micro Devices Inc and NVIDIA Corporation higher to offset losses in Qualcomm .Qualcomm fell more than 10% after the chipmaker’s gloomy update on guidance for the current quarter and third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates weighed on sentiment.While Qualcomm’s guidance was in line with estimates, investors were spooked by “management’s soft commentary around its Dec quarter and incremental headwinds in 2024,” Deutsche Bank said as it downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.“We expect continued softening [in the labor market],” Morgan Stanley S&P 500 falls for a second day as yields rise, earnings season continues: Live updates SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): What Lies Ahead on the Horizon? 3 Reasons Why SPY Could Be On The Cusp Of A Bear Market","html":"Based on the information provided, it is difficult to provide a specific forecast for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). However, there are a few factors that could affect the performance of SPY: rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and the ongoing earnings season. Additionally, according to a recent analysis, SPY appears to be significantly overvalued based on several metrics and may be on the verge of a bear market. It is important to note that investing always carries some level of risk. Reference articles: S&P 500 futures rise slightly as investors weigh Big Tech earnings, await key jobs data: Live updates The S&P 500 booked a third straight day of declines on Thursday as longer-dated Treasury yields spiked in the wake of the U.S. downgrade by Fitch Ratings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed about 67 points, or 0.2%, ending near 35,215, according to preliminary FactSet data. The S&P 500 index closed down 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 0.1%. Investors continued to monitor U.S. economy data against a backdrop where the nation's credit worthiness has become a key source of debate. Fitch on Tuesday cut its U.S. ratings to AA+ from AAA, becoming the second major rating agency to do so in the past dozen years.Investors were keeping a close eye on the jump in long-term Treasury yields, with the 10 year rate climbing to 4.188% on Thursday afternoon and the 30-year Treasury yield up near 4.304%, marking the highest yield on both since November 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Investors also will be digesting quarterly earnings from Apple Inc. and Amazon due after the Investing.com -- The S&P 500 cut some losses Thursday as investors bought the dip in the tech ahead of quarterly results from Amazon and Apple after the market closes.The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, or 22 points, and Nasdaq was flat.Tech cuts losses as investors buy dip in chips; Paypal slumps. Tech cut early-day losses as investors bought the dip in chips from a day earlier, pushing Advanced Micro Devices Inc and NVIDIA Corporation higher to offset losses in Qualcomm .Qualcomm fell more than 10% after the chipmaker’s gloomy update on guidance for the current quarter and third-quarter revenue that fell short of Wall Street estimates weighed on sentiment.While Qualcomm’s guidance was in line with estimates, investors were spooked by “management’s soft commentary around its Dec quarter and incremental headwinds in 2024,” Deutsche Bank said as it downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy.“We expect continued softening [in the labor market],” Morgan Stanley S&P 500 falls for a second day as yields rise, earnings season continues: Live updates SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY): What Lies Ahead on the Horizon? 3 Reasons Why SPY Could Be On The Cusp Of A Bear Market"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922862652,"gmtCreate":1671737724076,"gmtModify":1676538585339,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922862652","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020290040,"gmtCreate":1652654945681,"gmtModify":1676535132583,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020290040","repostId":"2235487417","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2235487417","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1652578909,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2235487417?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-15 09:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2235487417","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recessi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bc5d75faa18c73540fd4de9e54162dd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.</p><p><b>The Fed</b><b> Gets Real About Inflation</b></p><p>For the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.</p><p><b>Recession Fears On The Rise</b></p><p>Recession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.</p><p>But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.</p><p>With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe75a068a923482f18ea951209f1218e\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"549\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p>In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.</p><p><b>Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is Correct</b></p><p>We’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3622db42e9c19dca701a97e6c37b9d7c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></p><p><b>Bottom Line: Charting The Course From Here</b></p><p>Given the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The U.S. Economy Heading Into A Recession?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-15 09:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4139":"生物科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4511592-is-the-us-economy-heading-into-a-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2235487417","content_text":"The Fed takes a potentially aggressive path in an effort to tame inflation. Investors fear a recession may be on the horizon.The Fed Gets Real About InflationFor the last two years, inflation has been a bogeyman for the markets — higher and stickier than expected. To combat higher than expected inflation, the Fed has been telegraphing an aggressive position on hiking the fed funds rate. Markets are now expecting nine hikes, bringing the central bank’s overnight rate to 2.00%–2.25% by the end of 2022.Recession Fears On The RiseRecession fears became headline news when the yield on the 2-year Treasuries briefly rose above the yield on the 10-year Treasuries. Historically, some yield curve inversions have presaged a recession.But a single yield curve inversion on its own is an imperfect recession predictor: an inversion may precede a recession, but not all inversions culminate in a recession. Taking a broader look at the economy, we believe that although the fundamentals remain strong — particularly the labor market — there’s an expanding list of risks to growth, including the ending of fiscal and monetary stimulus, sanctions on Russia and the war in Ukraine.With this increased concern about recession, it’s important to recognize that not all recessions are the same. They have different drivers, which can impact their duration and severity.In the current environment, calibrating monetary policy precisely enough to slow growth but not to cause a downturn is a significant challenge for central banks given the relatively blunt tools at their disposal. Investors may be concerned that policymakers are playing catch-up and may end up tightening interest rates well above what the economy can handle.Risk Assets Can Still Do Well, Even When The Yield Curve Is CorrectWe’ve looked at how stocks tend to perform in the period between yield curve inversions and the start of a recession (when it has occurred). And while there are only a limited number of periods to consider, we found that frequently equities rise, and sometimes quite strongly.Bottom Line: Charting The Course From HereGiven the macroeconomic headwinds, we expect growth to slow to “near trend” levels this year from the very high growth rate in 2021. In fact, first quarter GDP numbers released in late April showed an unexpected decline of 1.4%, but this was mostly due to technical factors and not necessarily recessionary. Underlying trend growth, as measured by private domestic demand, was solid and still above trend. But in the coming quarters, rising rates and declining real incomes could take a bite out of consumer spending and result in further slowdown. Our base case is that we avoid recession, but the risks are rising.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089959883,"gmtCreate":1649947051117,"gmtModify":1676534613177,"author":{"id":"3581491367518582","authorId":"3581491367518582","name":"nez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a1daaeb73a3cce683548ae1720e0164","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581491367518582","authorIdStr":"3581491367518582"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😃","listText":"😃","text":"😃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089959883","repostId":"9016476123","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9016476123,"gmtCreate":1649229403658,"gmtModify":1676534474180,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"🏆【GAME】Hunting Eggs for Extra Saving!","htmlText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","listText":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2022/easter/\" target=\"_blank\">click&nbsp;here</a>&nbsp;to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. Also, invite your frien","text":"Tiger has prepared some Easter gifts for you, please click here to check them out!Easter can still be a bonus-boosting. Come and find the eggs in our Easter game to open the surprise! Each game contains 3 rounds, the more eggs you catch, the higher the points you can get. Game points can be redeemed for various rewards, including different value stock vouchers worth up to USD 1,000 are waiting for you! Moreover, catching special eggs can get extra points and chances to crack open for some wonderful Easter treats.There are too many hidden surprises to find, oops, the game attempts run out too fast. Don't worry, complete different tasks to earn more game attempts. 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