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Economy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116848770","media":"Reuters","summary":"SummaryU.S. data doesn't support scale of market meltdown - analystsHuge carry trade unwind a better explanationFurther pain likely short-term(Reuters) - A meltdown in world equity markets in recent d","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>Summary</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>U.S. data doesn&#39;t support scale of market meltdown - analysts</p></li><li><p>Huge carry trade unwind a better explanation</p></li><li><p>Further pain likely short-term</p></li></ul><p>(Reuters) - A meltdown in world equity markets in recent days is more reflective of a wind-down of carry trades used by investors to juice their bets than a hard and fast shift in the U.S. economic outlook, analysts say.</p><p>While Friday&#39;s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data was the catalyst for the market sell-off, with Japan&#39;s blue-chip Nikkei index on Monday suffering its biggest one-day rout since the 1987 Black Monday selloff, the employment report alone wasn&#39;t weak enough to be the main driver of such violent moves, they added.</p><p>Instead, the answer likely lies in a further sharp position unwind of carry trades, where investors have borrowed money from economies with low interest rates such as Japan or Switzerland, to fund investments in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.</p><p>They have been caught out as the Japanese yen has rallied by more than 11% against the dollar from 38-year lows hit just a month ago.</p><p>&#34;In our assessment a lot of this (market sell-off) has been down to position capitulation as a number of macro funds have been caught the wrong way around on a trade, and stops have been triggered, initially starting with FX and the Japanese yen,&#34; said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, referring to pre-determined levels that trigger buying or selling.</p><p>&#34;We don&#39;t see evidence in data that&#39;s saying we&#39;re looking at a hard landing,&#34; he added.</p><p>One Asian-based investor, who asked not to be identified, said that some of the biggest systematic hedge funds that trade in and out of stocks based on signals from algorithms, started selling equities when last week&#39;s surprise Bank of Japan rate hike sparked expectations for further tightening.</p><p>While exact numbers and the specific positioning shifts underlying the moves are hard to come by, analysts suspected that crowded positions in U.S. tech stocks, funded by carry trades, explain why they are suffering the most.</p><p>By 1423 GMT on Monday, the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq stock index was down over 8% so far in August, versus 6% for the broader S&amp;P index.</p><p>Carry trades, boosted by years of ultra-easy Japanese monetary policy, prompted a boom in cross-border yen borrowing to fund trades elsewhere, ING said.</p><p>Bank for International Settlements data suggests cross-border yen borrowing has increased by $742 billion since the end of 2021, the bank noted.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s a yen-funded carry unwind and Japanese stock unwind,&#34; said Tim Graf, head of macro strategy for Europe at State Street Global Markets. &#34;Our positioning metrics show investors overweight Japanese stocks. They were underweight yen. They&#39;re no longer underweight yen.&#34;</p><p>Speculators have cut bearish bets against the yen aggressively in recent weeks, bringing the net short position in the yen to $6.01 billion, its smallest since January, down from April&#39;s seven-year high of $14.526 billion, most recent weekly data from the U.S. markets regulator shows.</p><p>&#34;You can&#39;t unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads,&#34; said Societe Generale&#39;s chief currency strategist Kit Juckes.</p><p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e4cc737eacfeb1da2472abbaaa83ef\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>The charts show the Nikkei 225 index close and the Yen/USD level since January 2024</p><h3 id=\"id_170768742\" style=\"text-align: start;\">HEDGE FUND PAIN</h3><p>As hedge funds typically fund their bets through borrowing, their adjustments are exacerbating market moves, some investors said.</p><p>Banks give hedge funds leverage, essentially a loan to fund investing, which amplifies hedge fund returns but can also increase losses.</p><p>A note sent by Goldman Sachs to clients on Friday showed that gross leverage from Goldman Sachs prime brokerage, or the total amount that hedge funds have borrowed, declined in June and July, but still sits near five-year highs.</p><p>Last week marked the third consecutive week that hedge funds&#39; bets that stocks will fall outpaced the addition of bets that they will rise, Goldman said in a separate note, saying one long position was added for every 3.3 short bets.</p><p>It added on Monday that as of the Asian close, Japan-focused hedge funds were down 7.6% in the past three trading sessions.</p><p>While macro funds may have been involved in currency trades relating to the yen, many stock-trading hedge funds, because of a June short selling ban in South Korea and regulatory headwinds against the same practice in China, had moved focus to Japan, investors said.</p><p>Analysts added there was room for further short-term pain as positions are unwound, but the market shake-up would be limited.</p><p>Traders now expect over 120 basis points of U.S. rate cuts by the end of the year, versus around 50 bps at the start of last week, and fully price in a hefty 50 bps September rate cut.</p><p>Such expectations may be overdone if upcoming data suggests the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a hard landing.</p><p>&#34;We think it&#39;s really wrong to start fundamentally reassessing your view on the outlook here. Doing so is simply fitting a narrative to match the price action,&#34; said BlueBay&#39;s Dowding.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global Market Rout Has More to Do with End of Cheap Funding Than US Economy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal Market Rout Has More to Do with End of Cheap Funding Than US Economy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-06 11:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>Summary</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>U.S. data doesn&#39;t support scale of market meltdown - analysts</p></li><li><p>Huge carry trade unwind a better explanation</p></li><li><p>Further pain likely short-term</p></li></ul><p>(Reuters) - A meltdown in world equity markets in recent days is more reflective of a wind-down of carry trades used by investors to juice their bets than a hard and fast shift in the U.S. economic outlook, analysts say.</p><p>While Friday&#39;s weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data was the catalyst for the market sell-off, with Japan&#39;s blue-chip Nikkei index on Monday suffering its biggest one-day rout since the 1987 Black Monday selloff, the employment report alone wasn&#39;t weak enough to be the main driver of such violent moves, they added.</p><p>Instead, the answer likely lies in a further sharp position unwind of carry trades, where investors have borrowed money from economies with low interest rates such as Japan or Switzerland, to fund investments in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.</p><p>They have been caught out as the Japanese yen has rallied by more than 11% against the dollar from 38-year lows hit just a month ago.</p><p>&#34;In our assessment a lot of this (market sell-off) has been down to position capitulation as a number of macro funds have been caught the wrong way around on a trade, and stops have been triggered, initially starting with FX and the Japanese yen,&#34; said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, referring to pre-determined levels that trigger buying or selling.</p><p>&#34;We don&#39;t see evidence in data that&#39;s saying we&#39;re looking at a hard landing,&#34; he added.</p><p>One Asian-based investor, who asked not to be identified, said that some of the biggest systematic hedge funds that trade in and out of stocks based on signals from algorithms, started selling equities when last week&#39;s surprise Bank of Japan rate hike sparked expectations for further tightening.</p><p>While exact numbers and the specific positioning shifts underlying the moves are hard to come by, analysts suspected that crowded positions in U.S. tech stocks, funded by carry trades, explain why they are suffering the most.</p><p>By 1423 GMT on Monday, the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq stock index was down over 8% so far in August, versus 6% for the broader S&amp;P index.</p><p>Carry trades, boosted by years of ultra-easy Japanese monetary policy, prompted a boom in cross-border yen borrowing to fund trades elsewhere, ING said.</p><p>Bank for International Settlements data suggests cross-border yen borrowing has increased by $742 billion since the end of 2021, the bank noted.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s a yen-funded carry unwind and Japanese stock unwind,&#34; said Tim Graf, head of macro strategy for Europe at State Street Global Markets. &#34;Our positioning metrics show investors overweight Japanese stocks. They were underweight yen. They&#39;re no longer underweight yen.&#34;</p><p>Speculators have cut bearish bets against the yen aggressively in recent weeks, bringing the net short position in the yen to $6.01 billion, its smallest since January, down from April&#39;s seven-year high of $14.526 billion, most recent weekly data from the U.S. markets regulator shows.</p><p>&#34;You can&#39;t unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads,&#34; said Societe Generale&#39;s chief currency strategist Kit Juckes.</p><p><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f3e4cc737eacfeb1da2472abbaaa83ef\" alt=\"\"/></p><p>The charts show the Nikkei 225 index close and the Yen/USD level since January 2024</p><h3 id=\"id_170768742\" style=\"text-align: start;\">HEDGE FUND PAIN</h3><p>As hedge funds typically fund their bets through borrowing, their adjustments are exacerbating market moves, some investors said.</p><p>Banks give hedge funds leverage, essentially a loan to fund investing, which amplifies hedge fund returns but can also increase losses.</p><p>A note sent by Goldman Sachs to clients on Friday showed that gross leverage from Goldman Sachs prime brokerage, or the total amount that hedge funds have borrowed, declined in June and July, but still sits near five-year highs.</p><p>Last week marked the third consecutive week that hedge funds&#39; bets that stocks will fall outpaced the addition of bets that they will rise, Goldman said in a separate note, saying one long position was added for every 3.3 short bets.</p><p>It added on Monday that as of the Asian close, Japan-focused hedge funds were down 7.6% in the past three trading sessions.</p><p>While macro funds may have been involved in currency trades relating to the yen, many stock-trading hedge funds, because of a June short selling ban in South Korea and regulatory headwinds against the same practice in China, had moved focus to Japan, investors said.</p><p>Analysts added there was room for further short-term pain as positions are unwound, but the market shake-up would be limited.</p><p>Traders now expect over 120 basis points of U.S. rate cuts by the end of the year, versus around 50 bps at the start of last week, and fully price in a hefty 50 bps September rate cut.</p><p>Such expectations may be overdone if upcoming data suggests the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a hard landing.</p><p>&#34;We think it&#39;s really wrong to start fundamentally reassessing your view on the outlook here. Doing so is simply fitting a narrative to match the price action,&#34; said BlueBay&#39;s Dowding.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116848770","content_text":"SummaryU.S. data doesn't support scale of market meltdown - analystsHuge carry trade unwind a better explanationFurther pain likely short-term(Reuters) - A meltdown in world equity markets in recent days is more reflective of a wind-down of carry trades used by investors to juice their bets than a hard and fast shift in the U.S. economic outlook, analysts say.While Friday's weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data was the catalyst for the market sell-off, with Japan's blue-chip Nikkei index on Monday suffering its biggest one-day rout since the 1987 Black Monday selloff, the employment report alone wasn't weak enough to be the main driver of such violent moves, they added.Instead, the answer likely lies in a further sharp position unwind of carry trades, where investors have borrowed money from economies with low interest rates such as Japan or Switzerland, to fund investments in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.They have been caught out as the Japanese yen has rallied by more than 11% against the dollar from 38-year lows hit just a month ago.\"In our assessment a lot of this (market sell-off) has been down to position capitulation as a number of macro funds have been caught the wrong way around on a trade, and stops have been triggered, initially starting with FX and the Japanese yen,\" said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, referring to pre-determined levels that trigger buying or selling.\"We don't see evidence in data that's saying we're looking at a hard landing,\" he added.One Asian-based investor, who asked not to be identified, said that some of the biggest systematic hedge funds that trade in and out of stocks based on signals from algorithms, started selling equities when last week's surprise Bank of Japan rate hike sparked expectations for further tightening.While exact numbers and the specific positioning shifts underlying the moves are hard to come by, analysts suspected that crowded positions in U.S. tech stocks, funded by carry trades, explain why they are suffering the most.By 1423 GMT on Monday, the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq stock index was down over 8% so far in August, versus 6% for the broader S&P index.Carry trades, boosted by years of ultra-easy Japanese monetary policy, prompted a boom in cross-border yen borrowing to fund trades elsewhere, ING said.Bank for International Settlements data suggests cross-border yen borrowing has increased by $742 billion since the end of 2021, the bank noted.\"It's a yen-funded carry unwind and Japanese stock unwind,\" said Tim Graf, head of macro strategy for Europe at State Street Global Markets. \"Our positioning metrics show investors overweight Japanese stocks. They were underweight yen. They're no longer underweight yen.\"Speculators have cut bearish bets against the yen aggressively in recent weeks, bringing the net short position in the yen to $6.01 billion, its smallest since January, down from April's seven-year high of $14.526 billion, most recent weekly data from the U.S. markets regulator shows.\"You can't unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads,\" said Societe Generale's chief currency strategist Kit Juckes.The charts show the Nikkei 225 index close and the Yen/USD level since January 2024HEDGE FUND PAINAs hedge funds typically fund their bets through borrowing, their adjustments are exacerbating market moves, some investors said.Banks give hedge funds leverage, essentially a loan to fund investing, which amplifies hedge fund returns but can also increase losses.A note sent by Goldman Sachs to clients on Friday showed that gross leverage from Goldman Sachs prime brokerage, or the total amount that hedge funds have borrowed, declined in June and July, but still sits near five-year highs.Last week marked the third consecutive week that hedge funds' bets that stocks will fall outpaced the addition of bets that they will rise, Goldman said in a separate note, saying one long position was added for every 3.3 short bets.It added on Monday that as of the Asian close, Japan-focused hedge funds were down 7.6% in the past three trading sessions.While macro funds may have been involved in currency trades relating to the yen, many stock-trading hedge funds, because of a June short selling ban in South Korea and regulatory headwinds against the same practice in China, had moved focus to Japan, investors said.Analysts added there was room for further short-term pain as positions are unwound, but the market shake-up would be limited.Traders now expect over 120 basis points of U.S. rate cuts by the end of the year, versus around 50 bps at the start of last week, and fully price in a hefty 50 bps September rate cut.Such expectations may be overdone if upcoming data suggests the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a hard landing.\"We think it's really wrong to start fundamentally reassessing your view on the outlook here. Doing so is simply fitting a narrative to match the price action,\" said BlueBay's Dowding.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":292937084285240,"gmtCreate":1712544284085,"gmtModify":1713181396520,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/292937084285240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290569813840120,"gmtCreate":1711965915477,"gmtModify":1711965920438,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQM\">$Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/QQQM\">$Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8e495e17a919b751d7541b15e6b0e64c","width":"882","height":"1608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290569813840120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290562220687616,"gmtCreate":1711964052221,"gmtModify":1711964054356,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290562220687616","repostId":"290313618002024","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":290313618002024,"gmtCreate":1711885720568,"gmtModify":1711973401966,"author":{"id":"3527667646990931","authorId":"3527667646990931","name":"ETF Tracker","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/087e050021c7db2ae39b1cb7515b694d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667646990931","authorIdStr":"3527667646990931"},"themes":[],"title":"S&P 500 Investment Insights: Wall Street Predicts 'Epic' Bull Market","htmlText":"Wall Street Predicts \"Epic\" Bull Run, Analyzes Investment Opportunities in the S&amp;P 500 IndexThe <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMP\">$Standard(SMP)$</a> &amp; Poor's 500 Index has been soaring this year, breaking through the 5,200-point milestone last week. The recent rebound has been propelled by signals of Fed rate cuts. This move signals the end of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking cycle and boosts corporate profit growth.As a result, Wall Street analysts are even more bullish on the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMP\">$Standard(SMP)$</a> &amp; Poor's 500 Index. To seize this opportunity, investors should bet on ETFs tracking the S&amp;P 500 Index. These include the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV), Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO), SPDR Port","listText":"Wall Street Predicts \"Epic\" Bull Run, Analyzes Investment Opportunities in the S&amp;P 500 IndexThe <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMP\">$Standard(SMP)$</a> &amp; Poor's 500 Index has been soaring this year, breaking through the 5,200-point milestone last week. The recent rebound has been propelled by signals of Fed rate cuts. This move signals the end of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking cycle and boosts corporate profit growth.As a result, Wall Street analysts are even more bullish on the <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SMP\">$Standard(SMP)$</a> &amp; Poor's 500 Index. To seize this opportunity, investors should bet on ETFs tracking the S&amp;P 500 Index. These include the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF (IVV), Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (VOO), SPDR Port","text":"Wall Street Predicts \"Epic\" Bull Run, Analyzes Investment Opportunities in the S&P 500 IndexThe $Standard(SMP)$ & Poor's 500 Index has been soaring this year, breaking through the 5,200-point milestone last week. The recent rebound has been propelled by signals of Fed rate cuts. This move signals the end of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking cycle and boosts corporate profit growth.As a result, Wall Street analysts are even more bullish on the $Standard(SMP)$ & Poor's 500 Index. To seize this opportunity, investors should bet on ETFs tracking the S&P 500 Index. These include the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), SPDR Port","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/52a4b53d2146d5efbbac0bba55b08387","width":"1080","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290313618002024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":290560653025512,"gmtCreate":1711963669038,"gmtModify":1711964107534,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"title":"Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins","htmlText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/78Xmlj\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","listText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/78Xmlj\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","text":"Find out more here:Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b7f90833b0728cadecb5cb81220f1d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290560653025512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190165092438192,"gmtCreate":1687452680643,"gmtModify":1687452683878,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190165092438192","repostId":"189718949146656","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":189718949146656,"gmtCreate":1687343802432,"gmtModify":1687344942462,"author":{"id":"4113409820866582","authorId":"4113409820866582","name":"Elliottwave_Forecast","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c00ab1fc45e212abf00117a41ad8354f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4113409820866582","authorIdStr":"4113409820866582"},"themes":[],"title":"S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Elliott Wave Sequence Remains Bullish","htmlText":"\n \n \n  S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) Elliott Wave Sequence Remains Bullish June 21, 2023 By EWFRaj Short term, SPY favors higher in impulse Elliott wave sequence started from 5.04.2023 low and expect further strength to continue in wave 3. SPY finished wave 1 at 417.62 high started from 3.13.2023 low. It placed ((i)) at 402.49 high and ((ii)) at 389.33 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. It finished ((iii)) of 1 at 416.06 high and ((iv)) at 403.78 low. Finally, it ended ((v)) at 417.62 high as wave 1.&nbsp;It corrected lower in 2, ended at 403.74 low as 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of wave 1.&nbsp;Above there, it favors higher in wave 3 and expect further strength to continue before correcting in 4. Within wave 3, it placed ((i)) at 420.87 high and ((ii)) at 409.88 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((\n \n","listText":"S&amp;P 500 ETF (SPY) Elliott Wave Sequence Remains Bullish June 21, 2023 By EWFRaj Short term, SPY favors higher in impulse Elliott wave sequence started from 5.04.2023 low and expect further strength to continue in wave 3. SPY finished wave 1 at 417.62 high started from 3.13.2023 low. It placed ((i)) at 402.49 high and ((ii)) at 389.33 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. It finished ((iii)) of 1 at 416.06 high and ((iv)) at 403.78 low. Finally, it ended ((v)) at 417.62 high as wave 1.&nbsp;It corrected lower in 2, ended at 403.74 low as 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of wave 1.&nbsp;Above there, it favors higher in wave 3 and expect further strength to continue before correcting in 4. Within wave 3, it placed ((i)) at 420.87 high and ((ii)) at 409.88 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((","text":"S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Elliott Wave Sequence Remains Bullish June 21, 2023 By EWFRaj Short term, SPY favors higher in impulse Elliott wave sequence started from 5.04.2023 low and expect further strength to continue in wave 3. SPY finished wave 1 at 417.62 high started from 3.13.2023 low. It placed ((i)) at 402.49 high and ((ii)) at 389.33 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. It finished ((iii)) of 1 at 416.06 high and ((iv)) at 403.78 low. Finally, it ended ((v)) at 417.62 high as wave 1. It corrected lower in 2, ended at 403.74 low as 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of wave 1. Above there, it favors higher in wave 3 and expect further strength to continue before correcting in 4. Within wave 3, it placed ((i)) at 420.87 high and ((ii)) at 409.88 low as 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of ((","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df81211b19a7ed090f318f5656e71aa6"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189718949146656","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"952fd6315864472082692aaeb8c02fcf","tweetId":"189718949146656","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/8a1ed91dvodsgp1254107296/befb56813270835009852626433/SAWWojPcaFMA.mp4","poster":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/df81211b19a7ed090f318f5656e71aa6"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190164763488504,"gmtCreate":1687452669916,"gmtModify":1687452673294,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190164763488504","repostId":"759401207857312","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":759401207857312,"gmtCreate":1687360939037,"gmtModify":1687360965903,"author":{"id":"4102740637684170","authorId":"4102740637684170","name":"OptionsDelta","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5ab2017d32f95a165639de659b21cd1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4102740637684170","authorIdStr":"4102740637684170"},"themes":[],"title":"How Long Do Stock Market Corrections Last?","htmlText":"A: Short term, these two weeksAs we all know, US stocks often pull back during Chinese holidays, which is an old tradition. However, given the current put and sell call layouts, the callbacks are fairly short. Because from the temporary large single layout, bears do not intend to be bearish for a long time, and almost earn a time value and leave.Apple:The large order I shared last week can be seen that the institutions are around the July 7 expiration date layout. After all, the non-farm data released on July 7 and the CPI released on July 12, from Powell's attitude, he particularly hopes that the market will cash in the expectation of adding 50 basis points on this day or 12th. So the bulls are understandably subdued.So the question is, what's going on with the","listText":"A: Short term, these two weeksAs we all know, US stocks often pull back during Chinese holidays, which is an old tradition. However, given the current put and sell call layouts, the callbacks are fairly short. Because from the temporary large single layout, bears do not intend to be bearish for a long time, and almost earn a time value and leave.Apple:The large order I shared last week can be seen that the institutions are around the July 7 expiration date layout. After all, the non-farm data released on July 7 and the CPI released on July 12, from Powell's attitude, he particularly hopes that the market will cash in the expectation of adding 50 basis points on this day or 12th. So the bulls are understandably subdued.So the question is, what's going on with the","text":"A: Short term, these two weeksAs we all know, US stocks often pull back during Chinese holidays, which is an old tradition. However, given the current put and sell call layouts, the callbacks are fairly short. Because from the temporary large single layout, bears do not intend to be bearish for a long time, and almost earn a time value and leave.Apple:The large order I shared last week can be seen that the institutions are around the July 7 expiration date layout. After all, the non-farm data released on July 7 and the CPI released on July 12, from Powell's attitude, he particularly hopes that the market will cash in the expectation of adding 50 basis points on this day or 12th. So the bulls are understandably subdued.So the question is, what's going on with the","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09fc72b9993b98a2186faa285deb51df","width":"2396","height":"204"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7af7489cb76650ca817400ebaefdbb4a","width":"2426","height":"120"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c25eca5ebae99fde64dd975f878e8349","width":"2408","height":"148"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/759401207857312","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190164951449824,"gmtCreate":1687452661751,"gmtModify":1687452664946,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190164951449824","repostId":"759325332930736","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":759325332930736,"gmtCreate":1687351983582,"gmtModify":1687354624274,"author":{"id":"3558908080415665","authorId":"3558908080415665","name":"Alvin Chow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2abf7014742f3e282e9781e945db75b0","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558908080415665","authorIdStr":"3558908080415665"},"themes":[],"title":"Jack Ma is Changing Alibaba Behind the Scene","htmlText":"Alibaba has undergone a sudden and significant reorganization of its management structure. Daniel Zhang, previously serving as Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, will now step down from both positions and assume the role of CEO of Alibaba Cloud unit. Eddie Wu, one of Alibaba's co-founders, will take over as the Group CEO, while Joe Tsai, another co-founder, will become the chairman. Unlike Zhang, both Wu and Tsai have been with Alibaba since its inception. Wu initially served as a technology director in 1999 and possesses extensive experience in the company's core e-commerce business, monetization, and technology, making him a logical choic to oversee the entire group. Tsai previously held the position of the company's chief financial officer until 2013 and currently serves as executive vi","listText":"Alibaba has undergone a sudden and significant reorganization of its management structure. Daniel Zhang, previously serving as Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, will now step down from both positions and assume the role of CEO of Alibaba Cloud unit. Eddie Wu, one of Alibaba's co-founders, will take over as the Group CEO, while Joe Tsai, another co-founder, will become the chairman. Unlike Zhang, both Wu and Tsai have been with Alibaba since its inception. Wu initially served as a technology director in 1999 and possesses extensive experience in the company's core e-commerce business, monetization, and technology, making him a logical choic to oversee the entire group. Tsai previously held the position of the company's chief financial officer until 2013 and currently serves as executive vi","text":"Alibaba has undergone a sudden and significant reorganization of its management structure. Daniel Zhang, previously serving as Chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, will now step down from both positions and assume the role of CEO of Alibaba Cloud unit. Eddie Wu, one of Alibaba's co-founders, will take over as the Group CEO, while Joe Tsai, another co-founder, will become the chairman. Unlike Zhang, both Wu and Tsai have been with Alibaba since its inception. Wu initially served as a technology director in 1999 and possesses extensive experience in the company's core e-commerce business, monetization, and technology, making him a logical choic to oversee the entire group. Tsai previously held the position of the company's chief financial officer until 2013 and currently serves as executive vi","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d90cd377b6a7c732a4010dedbd55fb5a","width":"1141","height":"643"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/759325332930736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184154600456256,"gmtCreate":1685983285656,"gmtModify":1685983289307,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184154600456256","repostId":"183558320545856","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":183558320545856,"gmtCreate":1685835210483,"gmtModify":1685844954280,"author":{"id":"3566532164444643","authorId":"3566532164444643","name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566532164444643","authorIdStr":"3566532164444643"},"themes":[],"title":"Stocks Rally Continues After Strong Jobs Report 🚀","htmlText":"All thanks to Tiger once again for awarding the the double win of the weekly top predictions for QQQ and SPY. Let’s gear up for more profitable trades next week! 🤩 Stocks rallied and VIX tumbled on Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs reports and lawmakers passing a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default. VIX average level is about 18-20 The major averages were higher for the week. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq were 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory, last up 1.9% week to date. The Nasdaq is on pace to end its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020. You say jump, I say how high? Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill t","listText":"All thanks to Tiger once again for awarding the the double win of the weekly top predictions for QQQ and SPY. Let’s gear up for more profitable trades next week! 🤩 Stocks rallied and VIX tumbled on Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs reports and lawmakers passing a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default. VIX average level is about 18-20 The major averages were higher for the week. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq were 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory, last up 1.9% week to date. The Nasdaq is on pace to end its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020. You say jump, I say how high? Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill t","text":"All thanks to Tiger once again for awarding the the double win of the weekly top predictions for QQQ and SPY. Let’s gear up for more profitable trades next week! 🤩 Stocks rallied and VIX tumbled on Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs reports and lawmakers passing a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default. VIX average level is about 18-20 The major averages were higher for the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory, last up 1.9% week to date. The Nasdaq is on pace to end its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020. You say jump, I say how high? Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill t","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a475dabf0f895a76766418cfe7ea5c30","width":"1284","height":"1322"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d42ef53595967be4c36233a389cc3ee","width":"961","height":"847"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1430a10105151f07f9f067d6d43d9597","width":"1284","height":"1111"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183558320545856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":15,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922884927,"gmtCreate":1671734715270,"gmtModify":1676538585083,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Alphabet(GOOGL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982918141","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986561776,"gmtCreate":1666993359795,"gmtModify":1676537844722,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581522813731775","authorIdStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986561776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":290560653025512,"gmtCreate":1711963669038,"gmtModify":1711964107534,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581522813731775","idStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"title":"Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins","htmlText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/78Xmlj\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","listText":"Find out more here:<a href=\"https://tigr.link/78Xmlj\">Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins</a> Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","text":"Find out more here:Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins Come and participate in the“ Guess the winner，Earn Tiger Coins” event, find the trade master and invite friends to get up to 250 tiger coins.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b7f90833b0728cadecb5cb81220f1d"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/290560653025512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9983868479,"gmtCreate":1666219656991,"gmtModify":1676537722893,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581522813731775","idStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Speechless]&nbsp;","text":"[Speechless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9983868479","repostId":"1163149585","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163149585","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666188491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163149585?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-19 22:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163149585","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. B","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021&#39;s free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?</li><li>2021 was &#34;peak everything&#34; for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple&#39;s products being a key bellwether.</li><li>Apple&#39;s U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.</li><li>Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.</li><li>While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.</li></ul><p>Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple&#39;s stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74fbc6467060e07ea0d8b8477c0a63f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>The Pandemic Didn&#39;t Fundamentally Change Apple&#39;s Business</h3><p>Of course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple&#39;s income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.</p><p>Apple&#39;s share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.</p><p>EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.</p><p>And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).</p><p>When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.</p><p>Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple&#39;s buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!</p><p>It&#39;s strange when you think about it, but Apple&#39;s story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth &gt; EPS Growth&gt; Net Income Growth&gt; EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.</p><p>If you&#39;re buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple&#39;s business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don&#39;t see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That&#39;s tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple&#39;s.</p><p>But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple&#39;s earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed&#39;s interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.</p><h3>What To Expect From Apple&#39;s Earnings: Not Sustainable</h3><p>Apple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple&#39;s report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there&#39;s no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple&#39;s prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That&#39;s not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year&#39;s earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&amp;P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.</p><p>This wouldn&#39;t be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don&#39;t think there&#39;s much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There&#39;s also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple&#39;s US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL&#39;s earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that&#39;s another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.</p><h3>Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And Noise</h3><p>There&#39;s a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people&#39;s guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren&#39;t so different. Research shows companies that have the world&#39;s largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.</p><p>Apple is the world&#39;s most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can&#39;t justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don&#39;t be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you&#39;ll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.</p><h3>Bottom Line</h3><p>For a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha&#39;s quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple&#39;s growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Are Likely To Bomb Going Forward\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-19 22:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547242-apple-earnings-are-likely-to-bomb-going-forward","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163149585","content_text":"SummaryApple is going against astounding year-over-year comps from 2021's free-money/YOLO economy. But as the economy softens, are people really going to go out of their way to upgrade their iPhones?2021 was \"peak everything\" for consumers, with spending on consumer goods like Apple's products being a key bellwether.Apple's U-turn on its planned iPhone production ramp is a clear early warning signal for earnings to decline, but few investors are listening.Apple has also been a prime beneficiary of tax cuts, QE, and stimulus, while the underlying net income of its business looks more sluggish and cyclical.While Apple is a decent business, you should not get sucked into paying high PE ratios for popular stocks with earnings at cyclical peaks, or your portfolio will likely suffer the consequences.Some buy-and-hold investors may consider this blasphemy, but since late 2019 Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock price has grown increasingly disconnected from the reality of its underlying business. Apple's stock is ground zero for investors that expect stimulus-fueled levels of consumer spending to last forever. In reality, investors are tripping over each other to pay a peak multiple for consumer discretionary stocks like AAPL at peak earnings. This is unlikely to succeed as an investing strategy. To this point, the present valuation of Apple is a gift to investors, who now have the opportunity to sell while the stock is overvalued and allocate money elsewhere.Data by YChartsThe Pandemic Didn't Fundamentally Change Apple's BusinessOf course, Apple is a profitable business. But the beauty of looking at Apple's income statement is that it can tell you why the company is making more money and whether the share price is increasing faster or slower than the business.Apple's share price shows powerful gains, trading for about 5.9x more than it did 10 years ago.EPS is up a lot over the last 10 years (3.8x), but not as much as the share price.And EPS, in turn, is up a lot more than net income (2.4x).When you subtract out corporate tax cuts and the benefit from lower interest rates, earnings are only 2.1x the levels of 10 years ago.Moreover, nearly all of this growth has come recently during the pandemic. From 2012 to 2019, earnings before interest and taxes had only grown about 16%! The rest was all from tax cuts, lower interest rates, stimulus, and Apple's buyback. Not to discount the wisdom of buybacks in general- it was great when Apple was buying its shares back at like 10x earnings. But recently at 30x earnings? Not so much!It's strange when you think about it, but Apple's story has been similarly borne out among thousands of companies with the same trend of Market Cap Growth > EPS Growth> Net Income Growth> EBIT Growth. Valuations have risen faster than earnings, which in turn have been juiced by stimulus, falling interest rates, and deficit-financed corporate tax cuts. In the end, investors are getting a lot of sizzle and not much steak.If you're buying Apple here, you really need a compelling reason why Apple's business has fundamentally improved since 2019. I don't see one, besides people getting free money from the government. iPhone sales have been higher post-pandemic than previously, but consider that the US government handed out approximately $10,000 per family in stimulus in 2021. That's tax-free cash in addition to wages 95% of people were making working in 2021, so it was generally pure profit to recipients. In addition, remember that consumers had limited choices for travel, entertainment, and events, which directed spending towards consumer goods like Apple's.But what will happen to consumer spending this holiday season without $10,000 per family in free money and with raging inflation squeezing budgets? A massive miss in profits for consumer discretionary companies is the most likely outcome. Analysts are now slowly starting the process of revising Apple's earnings estimates down. The danger here is deceptive, as evidenced by the recent earnings misses of Adobe (ADBE), FedEx (FDX), and Restoration Hardware (RH) that reported off-cycle. Traders are excited because banks like Bank of America (BAC) reported higher profits from the Fed's interest rate hiking campaign. However, as the earnings cycle turns to consumer discretionary and tech there will likely be a bunch of stocks getting routed, with high-profile stocks like Apple and Amazon (AMZN) being likely victims.What To Expect From Apple's Earnings: Not SustainableApple reports quarterly earnings after the market closes on Thursday, October 27th. As always, Apple's report will be followed by their quarterly earnings call (and posted on Seeking Alpha shortly after). Analysts expect earnings of $1.27 for the quarter. Apple no longer gives earnings guidance- there's no requirement to do so even though they did so in the past. But this causes investors to get too excited about Apple's prospects rather than actually looking at the numbers. For investors to expect profits to simply level off with the rug pulled on stimulus is naive. Even before the recent revisions, Wall Street analysts had only projected mid-single-digit EPS growth for Apple over the next few years. That's not a huge vote of confidence. If you take these estimates at face value, Apple trades for over 22x next fiscal year's earnings with middling growth prospects. By contrast, the S&P 500 currently trades for about 15.6x analyst earnings estimates and has roughly equal growth prospects. The long-running story for Apple of course has been growth in services revenue, but I expect that to slow dramatically as the amount they can squeeze Google (GOOG) dramatically slows. If Apple can tell TSMC (TSM) no on price increases, then Google can likely do the same for Apple.This wouldn't be so bad except for the likelihood that earnings estimates are wildly inflated due to the massive stimulus in 2021. Once you account for the stimulus, I don't think there's much that fundamentally changed for Apple, its products, or its business prospects. In fact, people are likely to delay upgrading iPhones for years since they upgraded en masse in 2021 and early 2022. Apple is oddly out of step with the rest of the industry on this- they recently had to pull a U-turn on a planned 7% ramp in production. We can draw some clues on demand from the broader semiconductor market, with Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) acknowledging the slowdown in September, with Intel (INTC) announcing weak results and job cuts shortly after. Taiwan Semiconductor announced results a few days ago and warned of weakening demand. There's also the issue of the strong dollar, which eats away at Apple's US dollar profits on sales made outside the US. If past cycles are any guide, earnings for mature consumer-centric companies like Apple are likely to fall substantially. Without stimulus, AAPL's earnings could easily trend back to a bit above its pre-pandemic numbers, pushing the stock below $100 and likely below $75. There are severe, structural problems with the ability of consumers to continue to spend at the rate they are, and consumer discretionary companies are on the frontlines of this change. Raging inflation, lack of stimulus, declines in real earnings, etc., all have a hand in this. And when the hammer eventually drops on student loan forbearance, that's another 1% or more of the national income sucked back into the U.S. Treasury- equivalent to a fairly broad income tax hike.Mega Cap Tech Valuations: Signal And NoiseThere's a classic experiment in statistics where if you put a bunch of people's guesses together, the highest numbers are likely to be overestimated, while the lowest numbers are likely to be underestimated. For example, if we poll 100 people on how many jellybeans are in a jar or what the margin of victory will be for a candidate in the midterm elections, the highest estimates are likely to be wrong. The high estimates tend to have more noise in them than the ones in the middle. Financial markets aren't so different. Research shows companies that have the world's largest market caps tend to subsequently underperform. High P/E ratios combined with high-popularity stocks end up being far more noise than signal and are best avoided.Apple is the world's most valuable company, and it has been this way for a while. But in contrast to my previous research on the disposition effect and Apple stock being worth more than the business as late as 2019, you simply can't justify the near tripling in price since then. By contrast, you can sell Apple and put your money in a basket of small-cap stocks (IJR) that are trading at similar valuations to 2019. Don't be fooled by stocks that see huge gains in share price without corresponding growth in the underlying business. History shows that doing this means you'll be consigned to years of low or negative returns.Bottom LineFor a variety of reasons that are unlikely to prove sustainable, Apple has nearly tripled in price since the summer of 2019. Seeking Alpha's quant model gives the stock an F for valuation and a D+ for growth. This mirrors the lack of enthusiasm for Wall Street analysts on Apple's growth prospects. AAPL is now among the most overvalued large-cap names. Investors should consider selling and either allocating to Treasury bills that pay 4-4.5% annually, or to small-cap stocks that trade for less than half the valuation of Apple. Do you agree? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914940548,"gmtCreate":1665180319185,"gmtModify":1676537567314,"author":{"id":"3581522813731775","authorId":"3581522813731775","name":"TanFuYu","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d6f0f78426b5c9f95749a91759c447ef","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581522813731775","idStr":"3581522813731775"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a><v-v 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