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2021-08-13

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Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets

2021-07-03

From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.

@小虎活动:【有獎徵文】2021上半年投資大覆盤，聊聊投資中最不簡單的事兒

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22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162909242","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity r","content":"<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.</p>\n<p>The signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.</p>\n<p>The shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.</p>\n<p>“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.</p>\n<p>How big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bd13488ad9f3e748da28092473f23e\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&amp;P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.</p>\n<p>The Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.</p>\n<p>“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”</p>\n<p>Others see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&amp;P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.</p>\n<p>In 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&amp;P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.</p>\n<p>Skeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.</p>\n<p>“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c0e312361e509a3fc0e8bfb3d9c649\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&amp;P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.</p>\n<p>But Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&amp;P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.</p>\n<p>The Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.</p>\n<p>“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLiquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 22:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162909242","content_text":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.\nThe signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.\nThe shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.\n“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.\nHow big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.\n\nThe Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.\nThe Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.\n“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”\nOthers see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.\nIn 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.\nSkeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.\n“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”\n\nFor now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.\nBut Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.\nThe Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.\n“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152593770,"gmtCreate":1625306753690,"gmtModify":1703740278539,"author":{"id":"3581546936450688","authorId":"3581546936450688","name":"SongYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a9d0f6cfe6fbb661560479b389a828","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581546936450688","authorIdStr":"3581546936450688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","listText":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","text":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152593770","repostId":"156505358","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":156505358,"gmtCreate":1625228573670,"gmtModify":1703738843718,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a4f89726b3f6319d06a0075bf9ff76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【有獎徵文】2021上半年投資大覆盤，聊聊投資中最不簡單的事兒","htmlText":"寫覆盤，贏大禮，你交易，我買單！ 投資的過程和操作其實是一個很簡單的事情，一買一賣就完成了一筆交易，但是要理解這個過程卻非常的複雜，涉及宏觀，行業，公司基本面等方方面面。投資過程的簡單，是一種形的簡單。學習就是將簡單的問題複雜化之後，抽絲剝繭再讓其簡單化。而覆盤正是學習的環節中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走過，你的成績如何？對自己的投資表現滿意嗎？投資需要不斷地總結，才能不斷地進步！對於上半年的投資，你覺得哪些方面需要繼續保持，又有哪些方面需要總結和提高？對於下半年的行情，你怎麼看？你看好哪些投資標的和投資機會？歡迎虎友們暢所欲言！ 【參與方式】 在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖，或者題目中包含“2021上半年投資大覆盤”等關鍵字 。寫什麼？虎友們可以自由發揮！ （2021上半年關於投資的一切總結內容都可以寫），如果沒有思路，也可以參考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑贏大盤，是否達到你的目標 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什麼啓發？ 2021上半年，哪次失敗的投資讓你記憶猶新？爲什麼？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投資計劃和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅長的虎友可以在發帖時選擇“寫長帖’也可以使用老虎社區網頁發帖可支持多圖及長文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活動時間】 即日起至7月30日 【活動獎品】 一等獎：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等獎：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等獎：你這個月的佣金我全包了 參與獎：也可稱爲陽光普照獎，凡在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖或者在本帖參與回覆的用戶，均可獲得66虎幣。 【獎品發放細則】 我們將在活動結束10個工作日內，公佈中獎用戶名單，並在公佈獲獎名單一週內爲大家派發免傭卡。免傭卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎證券應收的交易佣金，單筆免傭上限15美元或等值港幣。 一等獎爲180天免傭卡，","listText":"寫覆盤，贏大禮，你交易，我買單！ 投資的過程和操作其實是一個很簡單的事情，一買一賣就完成了一筆交易，但是要理解這個過程卻非常的複雜，涉及宏觀，行業，公司基本面等方方面面。投資過程的簡單，是一種形的簡單。學習就是將簡單的問題複雜化之後，抽絲剝繭再讓其簡單化。而覆盤正是學習的環節中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走過，你的成績如何？對自己的投資表現滿意嗎？投資需要不斷地總結，才能不斷地進步！對於上半年的投資，你覺得哪些方面需要繼續保持，又有哪些方面需要總結和提高？對於下半年的行情，你怎麼看？你看好哪些投資標的和投資機會？歡迎虎友們暢所欲言！ 【參與方式】 在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖，或者題目中包含“2021上半年投資大覆盤”等關鍵字 。寫什麼？虎友們可以自由發揮！ （2021上半年關於投資的一切總結內容都可以寫），如果沒有思路，也可以參考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑贏大盤，是否達到你的目標 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什麼啓發？ 2021上半年，哪次失敗的投資讓你記憶猶新？爲什麼？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投資計劃和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅長的虎友可以在發帖時選擇“寫長帖’也可以使用老虎社區網頁發帖可支持多圖及長文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活動時間】 即日起至7月30日 【活動獎品】 一等獎：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等獎：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等獎：你這個月的佣金我全包了 參與獎：也可稱爲陽光普照獎，凡在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖或者在本帖參與回覆的用戶，均可獲得66虎幣。 【獎品發放細則】 我們將在活動結束10個工作日內，公佈中獎用戶名單，並在公佈獲獎名單一週內爲大家派發免傭卡。免傭卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎證券應收的交易佣金，單筆免傭上限15美元或等值港幣。 一等獎爲180天免傭卡，","text":"寫覆盤，贏大禮，你交易，我買單！ 投資的過程和操作其實是一個很簡單的事情，一買一賣就完成了一筆交易，但是要理解這個過程卻非常的複雜，涉及宏觀，行業，公司基本面等方方面面。投資過程的簡單，是一種形的簡單。學習就是將簡單的問題複雜化之後，抽絲剝繭再讓其簡單化。而覆盤正是學習的環節中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走過，你的成績如何？對自己的投資表現滿意嗎？投資需要不斷地總結，才能不斷地進步！對於上半年的投資，你覺得哪些方面需要繼續保持，又有哪些方面需要總結和提高？對於下半年的行情，你怎麼看？你看好哪些投資標的和投資機會？歡迎虎友們暢所欲言！ 【參與方式】 在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖，或者題目中包含“2021上半年投資大覆盤”等關鍵字 。寫什麼？虎友們可以自由發揮！ （2021上半年關於投資的一切總結內容都可以寫），如果沒有思路，也可以參考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑贏大盤，是否達到你的目標 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什麼啓發？ 2021上半年，哪次失敗的投資讓你記憶猶新？爲什麼？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投資計劃和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅長的虎友可以在發帖時選擇“寫長帖’也可以使用老虎社區網頁發帖可支持多圖及長文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活動時間】 即日起至7月30日 【活動獎品】 一等獎：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等獎：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等獎：你這個月的佣金我全包了 參與獎：也可稱爲陽光普照獎，凡在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖或者在本帖參與回覆的用戶，均可獲得66虎幣。 【獎品發放細則】 我們將在活動結束10個工作日內，公佈中獎用戶名單，並在公佈獲獎名單一週內爲大家派發免傭卡。免傭卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎證券應收的交易佣金，單筆免傭上限15美元或等值港幣。 一等獎爲180天免傭卡，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0c86e0d1b8991a3fbf696e9a6a2777","width":"840","height":"540"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156505358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":152593770,"gmtCreate":1625306753690,"gmtModify":1703740278539,"author":{"id":"3581546936450688","authorId":"3581546936450688","name":"SongYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a9d0f6cfe6fbb661560479b389a828","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581546936450688","authorIdStr":"3581546936450688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","listText":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","text":"From past, i found regret to buy shares like gamestop and AMC, as the price is very fluctuating due to those big sharks used it as hedging. This has make me awake and lesson for me.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/152593770","repostId":"156505358","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":156505358,"gmtCreate":1625228573670,"gmtModify":1703738843718,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44a4f89726b3f6319d06a0075bf9ff76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【有獎徵文】2021上半年投資大覆盤，聊聊投資中最不簡單的事兒","htmlText":"寫覆盤，贏大禮，你交易，我買單！ 投資的過程和操作其實是一個很簡單的事情，一買一賣就完成了一筆交易，但是要理解這個過程卻非常的複雜，涉及宏觀，行業，公司基本面等方方面面。投資過程的簡單，是一種形的簡單。學習就是將簡單的問題複雜化之後，抽絲剝繭再讓其簡單化。而覆盤正是學習的環節中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走過，你的成績如何？對自己的投資表現滿意嗎？投資需要不斷地總結，才能不斷地進步！對於上半年的投資，你覺得哪些方面需要繼續保持，又有哪些方面需要總結和提高？對於下半年的行情，你怎麼看？你看好哪些投資標的和投資機會？歡迎虎友們暢所欲言！ 【參與方式】 在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖，或者題目中包含“2021上半年投資大覆盤”等關鍵字 。寫什麼？虎友們可以自由發揮！ （2021上半年關於投資的一切總結內容都可以寫），如果沒有思路，也可以參考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑贏大盤，是否達到你的目標 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什麼啓發？ 2021上半年，哪次失敗的投資讓你記憶猶新？爲什麼？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投資計劃和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅長的虎友可以在發帖時選擇“寫長帖’也可以使用老虎社區網頁發帖可支持多圖及長文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活動時間】 即日起至7月30日 【活動獎品】 一等獎：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等獎：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等獎：你這個月的佣金我全包了 參與獎：也可稱爲陽光普照獎，凡在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖或者在本帖參與回覆的用戶，均可獲得66虎幣。 【獎品發放細則】 我們將在活動結束10個工作日內，公佈中獎用戶名單，並在公佈獲獎名單一週內爲大家派發免傭卡。免傭卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎證券應收的交易佣金，單筆免傭上限15美元或等值港幣。 一等獎爲180天免傭卡，","listText":"寫覆盤，贏大禮，你交易，我買單！ 投資的過程和操作其實是一個很簡單的事情，一買一賣就完成了一筆交易，但是要理解這個過程卻非常的複雜，涉及宏觀，行業，公司基本面等方方面面。投資過程的簡單，是一種形的簡單。學習就是將簡單的問題複雜化之後，抽絲剝繭再讓其簡單化。而覆盤正是學習的環節中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走過，你的成績如何？對自己的投資表現滿意嗎？投資需要不斷地總結，才能不斷地進步！對於上半年的投資，你覺得哪些方面需要繼續保持，又有哪些方面需要總結和提高？對於下半年的行情，你怎麼看？你看好哪些投資標的和投資機會？歡迎虎友們暢所欲言！ 【參與方式】 在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖，或者題目中包含“2021上半年投資大覆盤”等關鍵字 。寫什麼？虎友們可以自由發揮！ （2021上半年關於投資的一切總結內容都可以寫），如果沒有思路，也可以參考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑贏大盤，是否達到你的目標 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什麼啓發？ 2021上半年，哪次失敗的投資讓你記憶猶新？爲什麼？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投資計劃和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅長的虎友可以在發帖時選擇“寫長帖’也可以使用老虎社區網頁發帖可支持多圖及長文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活動時間】 即日起至7月30日 【活動獎品】 一等獎：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等獎：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等獎：你這個月的佣金我全包了 參與獎：也可稱爲陽光普照獎，凡在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖或者在本帖參與回覆的用戶，均可獲得66虎幣。 【獎品發放細則】 我們將在活動結束10個工作日內，公佈中獎用戶名單，並在公佈獲獎名單一週內爲大家派發免傭卡。免傭卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎證券應收的交易佣金，單筆免傭上限15美元或等值港幣。 一等獎爲180天免傭卡，","text":"寫覆盤，贏大禮，你交易，我買單！ 投資的過程和操作其實是一個很簡單的事情，一買一賣就完成了一筆交易，但是要理解這個過程卻非常的複雜，涉及宏觀，行業，公司基本面等方方面面。投資過程的簡單，是一種形的簡單。學習就是將簡單的問題複雜化之後，抽絲剝繭再讓其簡單化。而覆盤正是學習的環節中必不可少的一部分。 上半年已悄然走過，你的成績如何？對自己的投資表現滿意嗎？投資需要不斷地總結，才能不斷地進步！對於上半年的投資，你覺得哪些方面需要繼續保持，又有哪些方面需要總結和提高？對於下半年的行情，你怎麼看？你看好哪些投資標的和投資機會？歡迎虎友們暢所欲言！ 【參與方式】 在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖，或者題目中包含“2021上半年投資大覆盤”等關鍵字 。寫什麼？虎友們可以自由發揮！ （2021上半年關於投資的一切總結內容都可以寫），如果沒有思路，也可以參考以下模板： 2021上半年，你的收益率是多少？是否跑贏大盤，是否達到你的目標 2021上半年，你曾做了哪些“神操作”？得到什麼啓發？ 2021上半年，哪次失敗的投資讓你記憶猶新？爲什麼？ 2021年下半年，有哪些投資計劃和展望？ 友情提示：篇幅長的虎友可以在發帖時選擇“寫長帖’也可以使用老虎社區網頁發帖可支持多圖及長文格式哦：www.laohu8.com 【活動時間】 即日起至7月30日 【活動獎品】 一等獎：你下半年的佣金我全包了 二等獎：你季度的佣金我全包了 三等獎：你這個月的佣金我全包了 參與獎：也可稱爲陽光普照獎，凡在“2021上半年投資大覆盤”主題下發帖或者在本帖參與回覆的用戶，均可獲得66虎幣。 【獎品發放細則】 我們將在活動結束10個工作日內，公佈中獎用戶名單，並在公佈獲獎名單一週內爲大家派發免傭卡。免傭卡可免除美港股股票，ETF交易中老虎證券應收的交易佣金，單筆免傭上限15美元或等值港幣。 一等獎爲180天免傭卡，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f0c86e0d1b8991a3fbf696e9a6a2777","width":"840","height":"540"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156505358","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894149824,"gmtCreate":1628813467968,"gmtModify":1676529861344,"author":{"id":"3581546936450688","authorId":"3581546936450688","name":"SongYong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a9d0f6cfe6fbb661560479b389a828","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581546936450688","authorIdStr":"3581546936450688"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894149824","repostId":"1162909242","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162909242","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628779877,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1162909242?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162909242","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity r","content":"<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.</p>\n<p>The signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.</p>\n<p>The shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.</p>\n<p>“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.</p>\n<p>How big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29bd13488ad9f3e748da28092473f23e\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&amp;P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.</p>\n<p>The Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.</p>\n<p>“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”</p>\n<p>Others see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&amp;P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.</p>\n<p>In 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&amp;P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.</p>\n<p>Skeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.</p>\n<p>“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37c0e312361e509a3fc0e8bfb3d9c649\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&amp;P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.</p>\n<p>But Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&amp;P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.</p>\n<p>The Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.</p>\n<p>“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Liquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLiquidity Is Evaporating Even Before Fed Taper Hits Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 22:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-11/liquidity-is-evaporating-even-before-the-fed-taper-hits-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162909242","content_text":"A measure of U.S. financial liquidity whose declines foreshadowed two of the decade’s worst equity routs is flashing alarms even before the Federal Reserve embarks on its planned winding down of asset purchases.\nThe signal is obscure, but has sent meaningful signs in the past. Roughly speaking, it’s the gap between the rates of growth in money supply and gross domestic product, an indicator known to eco-geeks as Marshallian K. It just turned negative for the first time since 2018, meaning GDP is rising faster than the government’s M2 account.\nThe shortfall comes from an expanding economy that’s quickly depleting the nation’s available money. The deficit could become a problem for markets at a time when excess liquidity is seen as underpinning rallies in everything from Bitcoin to meme stocks.\n“Put another way, the recovering economy is now drinking from a punch bowl that the stock market once had all to itself,” Doug Ramsey, Leuthold Group’s chief investment officer, wrote in a note last week.\nHow big a threat is this? While stocks kept rising during frequent negative Marshallian K readings in the 1990s, the pattern since the 2008 global financial crisis -- a period when the central bank was in what Ramsey calls a “perpetual crisis mode” -- begs for caution.\n\nThe Marshallian K fell below zero in 2010, a year when the S&P 500 Index suffered a 16% correction. A similar dip in 2018 portended a selloff that almost killed that bull market.\nThe Leuthold study is the latest attempt to handicap the market’s outlook from the perspective of liquidity. But not everyone is worried. Ed Yardeni, the president and founder of Yardeni Research Inc., says he prefers to plot not the growth rates but the absolute level of M2 against GDP to measure liquidity. Based on that, liquidity stood near a record high.\n“Some people start to freak out about the M2 growth rate,” he said in an interview on Bloomberg TV and Radio. “What they don’t really appreciate is M2 today is $5 trillion higher than it was before the pandemic. There is just a tremendous liquidity sitting there.”\nOthers see limited impact from Fed tapering on the equity market. In June,researchfrom UBS Group AG showed that should the Fed turn off the spigot on its annual $1.4 trillion in quantitative-easing spending, the hit to the S&P 500 would be a paltry 3% decline in prices.\nIn 2013, when the Fed’s announcement on a reduction in stimulus sparked ataper tantrumthat sent 10-year Treasury yields skyward, the S&P 500 pulled back almost 6% from its May peak that year. But stocks staged a full recovery within weeks and went on with a rally that eventually lifted the index 30% for the whole year.\nSkeptics, however, are quick to point out one big difference: equity valuations.\n“Back then, the stock market was trading at 15 times earnings. Now it’s 22 times earnings,” Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., said in an interview on Bloomberg TV with Caroline Hyde. “It will be hard for the market to ignore it this time around.”\n\nFor now, a liquidity drain suggested by the Marshallian K data has done little damage to the market, at least on the index level. The S&P 500 is poised for a seventh straight monthly gain, reaching all-time highs almost every week.\nBut Ramsey warns investors shouldn’t let their guard down. While the broad market has been strong -- the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at a record for the 46th time this year -- fewer stocks are participating in the latest leg up. This could be blamed on falling liquidity, he says, and the days of abundant cash floating all stocks are likely gone.\nThe Marshallian K indicator just slumped intonegative territoryfaster than ever. During the second quarter, M2 money expanded 12.7% from a year ago, trailing the nominal GDP growth rate of 16.7%. That came after four quarters of excessive liquidity where the spread stayed above 20 percentage points.\n“The Marshallian K now shows liquidity not only deteriorating but actually contracting -- and at a time when hopes (as embedded in valuations) have never been higher,” Ramsey said. “If the Fed can drawdown QE in the next year without triggering a decline of those levels, it will truly have achieved something remarkable. But we’d rather invest based on the probable.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}