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2025-12-03

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Everyone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand

2025-11-22

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2024-08-05

Holy sh....

2024-03-12

Rate hike again this year? 🥲

US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected

2023-05-04

No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool

Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/506717908750816","repostId":"2588096989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2588096989","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1764731539,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2588096989?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-12-03 11:12","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Everyone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588096989","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.QT was the Fed shrinking its...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.</p><p>QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic&#39;s whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.</p><p>Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about &#34;ample reserves&#34; and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.</p><h2 id=\"id_1832511598\">The motel closed at midnight</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.</p></blockquote><p>The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed&#39;s overflow tank for Wall Street&#39;s cash.</p><p>Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.</p><p>At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.</p><p>As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed&#39;s manager called it a night.</p><p>This is being sold as &#34;normalization.&#34; That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone.</p><p>While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.</p><p>Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn&#39;t.</p><p>Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.</p><p>If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. &#34;Higher-for-longer&#34; would be the market&#39;s initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of &#34;is my money-market fund actually safe?&#34;</p><p>We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2b3f4908f6e804334ee260f4b120c1f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_647746906\">The spare tire they said they&#39;d never need</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p></blockquote><p>Then there&#39;s the Standing Repo Facility. That&#39;s the Fed&#39;s emergency lending window. The backstop they said they&#39;d &#34;hardly ever use.&#34; The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It&#39;s the central bank&#39;s credit card for when things get weird.</p><p>It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p><p>Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it&#39;s Tuesday.</p><p>Here&#39;s the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed&#39;s own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed&#39;s supposed &#34;emergency&#34; rate. That&#39;s not a technical adjustment. That&#39;s a failure of monetary control. That&#39;s the Fed admitting it can&#39;t actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.</p><p>When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don&#39;t have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.</p><h2 id=\"id_1560962788\">Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here&#39;s why.</h2><blockquote><p>The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p></blockquote><p>The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn&#39;t announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.</p><p>The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it&#39;s wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.</p><p>That&#39;s not policy. That&#39;s damage control.</p><p>So what do you do? Here&#39;s the short version: Make sure your &#34;safe&#34; money isn&#39;t the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.</p><p>For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.</p><p>Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.</p><p>For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don&#39;t take the bait. I&#39;ve said it before and I&#39;ll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p><p>For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.</p><p>For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the &#34;I don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the &#34;I really, really don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.</p><h2 id=\"id_3282049461\">The confession nobody wants to hear</h2><blockquote><p>Check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p></blockquote><p>The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.</p><p>It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.</p><p>The next act will be quiet &#34;reserve-management&#34; buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.</p><p>You cannot fix the Fed&#39;s pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p><p>The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they&#39;re trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.</p><p>Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Everyone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEveryone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-03 11:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.</p><p>QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic&#39;s whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.</p><p>Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about &#34;ample reserves&#34; and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.</p><h2 id=\"id_1832511598\">The motel closed at midnight</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.</p></blockquote><p>The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed&#39;s overflow tank for Wall Street&#39;s cash.</p><p>Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.</p><p>At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.</p><p>As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed&#39;s manager called it a night.</p><p>This is being sold as &#34;normalization.&#34; That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone.</p><p>While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.</p><p>Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn&#39;t.</p><p>Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.</p><p>If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. &#34;Higher-for-longer&#34; would be the market&#39;s initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of &#34;is my money-market fund actually safe?&#34;</p><p>We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2b3f4908f6e804334ee260f4b120c1f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_647746906\">The spare tire they said they&#39;d never need</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p></blockquote><p>Then there&#39;s the Standing Repo Facility. That&#39;s the Fed&#39;s emergency lending window. The backstop they said they&#39;d &#34;hardly ever use.&#34; The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It&#39;s the central bank&#39;s credit card for when things get weird.</p><p>It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p><p>Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it&#39;s Tuesday.</p><p>Here&#39;s the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed&#39;s own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed&#39;s supposed &#34;emergency&#34; rate. That&#39;s not a technical adjustment. That&#39;s a failure of monetary control. That&#39;s the Fed admitting it can&#39;t actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.</p><p>When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don&#39;t have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.</p><h2 id=\"id_1560962788\">Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here&#39;s why.</h2><blockquote><p>The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p></blockquote><p>The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn&#39;t announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.</p><p>The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it&#39;s wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.</p><p>That&#39;s not policy. That&#39;s damage control.</p><p>So what do you do? Here&#39;s the short version: Make sure your &#34;safe&#34; money isn&#39;t the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.</p><p>For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.</p><p>Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.</p><p>For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don&#39;t take the bait. I&#39;ve said it before and I&#39;ll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p><p>For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.</p><p>For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the &#34;I don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the &#34;I really, really don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.</p><h2 id=\"id_3282049461\">The confession nobody wants to hear</h2><blockquote><p>Check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p></blockquote><p>The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.</p><p>It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.</p><p>The next act will be quiet &#34;reserve-management&#34; buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.</p><p>You cannot fix the Fed&#39;s pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p><p>The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they&#39;re trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.</p><p>Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2588096989","content_text":"The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic's whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about \"ample reserves\" and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.The motel closed at midnightThe Fed's shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed's overflow tank for Wall Street's cash.Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed's manager called it a night.This is being sold as \"normalization.\" That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed's shock absorber is gone.While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn't.Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. \"Higher-for-longer\" would be the market's initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of \"is my money-market fund actually safe?\"We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.The spare tire they said they'd never needThe Fed's Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It's been getting real weird.Then there's the Standing Repo Facility. That's the Fed's emergency lending window. The backstop they said they'd \"hardly ever use.\" The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It's the central bank's credit card for when things get weird.It's been getting real weird.Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it's Tuesday.Here's the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed's own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed's supposed \"emergency\" rate. That's not a technical adjustment. That's a failure of monetary control. That's the Fed admitting it can't actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don't have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here's why.The government buying its own debt isn't a sign of strength. It's a sign it ran out of other buyers.The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn't announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it's wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.That's not policy. That's damage control.So what do you do? Here's the short version: Make sure your \"safe\" money isn't the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don't take the bait. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn't a sign of strength. It's a sign it ran out of other buyers.For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the \"I don't trust the system\" trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the \"I really, really don't trust the system\" trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.The confession nobody wants to hearCheck where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.The next act will be quiet \"reserve-management\" buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.You cannot fix the Fed's pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they're trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":2,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"YMmain":2,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"ESmain":2,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502754222674016,"gmtCreate":1763751339284,"gmtModify":1763751341661,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502754222674016","repostId":"2585404721","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335186904461408,"gmtCreate":1722839287998,"gmtModify":1722839807373,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Holy sh....","listText":"Holy sh....","text":"Holy sh....","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d321cc52e6a6c1f86a4b2e41bc626c16","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335186904461408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":283480019734728,"gmtCreate":1710247860136,"gmtModify":1710251528839,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","listText":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","text":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/283480019734728","repostId":"1168053302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168053302","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1710246644,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168053302?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-12 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168053302","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"US CPI YoY Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.1%)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5889035925b31691d094d1900524c4b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"105\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.</p><p>A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-12 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5889035925b31691d094d1900524c4b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"105\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.</p><p>A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168053302","content_text":"Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":1.1,"YMmain":1.1,"NQmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947208000,"gmtCreate":1683143491801,"gmtModify":1683165725953,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","listText":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","text":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947208000","repostId":"1185631860","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185631860","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1683136852,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185631860?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-04 02:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185631860","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a ye","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.<br/>Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.<br/>The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“<br/>The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.<br/>Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.<br/>The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.<br/>Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-04 02:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.<br/>Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.<br/>The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“<br/>The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.<br/>Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.<br/>The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.<br/>Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185631860","content_text":"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":283480019734728,"gmtCreate":1710247860136,"gmtModify":1710251528839,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","listText":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","text":"Rate hike again this year? 🥲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/283480019734728","repostId":"1168053302","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168053302","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1710246644,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168053302?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2024-03-12 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168053302","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"US CPI YoY Actual 3.2% (Forecast 3.1%, Previous 3.1%)","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5889035925b31691d094d1900524c4b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"105\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.</p><p>A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS February Core Inflation Data Slightly Hotter Than Expected\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-12 20:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5889035925b31691d094d1900524c4b4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"105\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.</p><p>A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168053302","content_text":"Inflation rose again in February, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.The consumer price index, a broad measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The monthly gain was in line with expectations, but the annual rate was slightly ahead of the 3.1% forecast from the Dow Jones consensus.Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.4% on the month and was up 3.8% on the year. Both were one-tenth of a percentage point higher than forecast.While the 12-month pace is off the inflation peak in mid-2022, it remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal as the central bank approaches its two-day policy meeting in a week.A 2.3% increase in energy costs helped boost the headline inflation number. Food costs were flat on the month, while shelter rose another 0.4%.The BLS reported that the increases in energy and shelter amounted to more than 60% of the total gain.Markets showed little initial reaction after the news broke, with futures tied to major stock averages as well as Treasury yields slightly higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":1.1,"YMmain":1.1,"NQmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":506717908750816,"gmtCreate":1764732214531,"gmtModify":1764732218219,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/506717908750816","repostId":"2588096989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2588096989","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1764731539,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2588096989?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-12-03 11:12","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Everyone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588096989","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.QT was the Fed shrinking its...","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.</p><p>QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic&#39;s whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.</p><p>Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about &#34;ample reserves&#34; and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.</p><h2 id=\"id_1832511598\">The motel closed at midnight</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.</p></blockquote><p>The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed&#39;s overflow tank for Wall Street&#39;s cash.</p><p>Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.</p><p>At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.</p><p>As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed&#39;s manager called it a night.</p><p>This is being sold as &#34;normalization.&#34; That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone.</p><p>While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.</p><p>Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn&#39;t.</p><p>Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.</p><p>If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. &#34;Higher-for-longer&#34; would be the market&#39;s initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of &#34;is my money-market fund actually safe?&#34;</p><p>We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2b3f4908f6e804334ee260f4b120c1f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_647746906\">The spare tire they said they&#39;d never need</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p></blockquote><p>Then there&#39;s the Standing Repo Facility. That&#39;s the Fed&#39;s emergency lending window. The backstop they said they&#39;d &#34;hardly ever use.&#34; The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It&#39;s the central bank&#39;s credit card for when things get weird.</p><p>It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p><p>Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it&#39;s Tuesday.</p><p>Here&#39;s the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed&#39;s own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed&#39;s supposed &#34;emergency&#34; rate. That&#39;s not a technical adjustment. That&#39;s a failure of monetary control. That&#39;s the Fed admitting it can&#39;t actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.</p><p>When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don&#39;t have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.</p><h2 id=\"id_1560962788\">Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here&#39;s why.</h2><blockquote><p>The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p></blockquote><p>The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn&#39;t announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.</p><p>The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it&#39;s wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.</p><p>That&#39;s not policy. That&#39;s damage control.</p><p>So what do you do? Here&#39;s the short version: Make sure your &#34;safe&#34; money isn&#39;t the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.</p><p>For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.</p><p>Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.</p><p>For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don&#39;t take the bait. I&#39;ve said it before and I&#39;ll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p><p>For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.</p><p>For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the &#34;I don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the &#34;I really, really don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.</p><h2 id=\"id_3282049461\">The confession nobody wants to hear</h2><blockquote><p>Check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p></blockquote><p>The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.</p><p>It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.</p><p>The next act will be quiet &#34;reserve-management&#34; buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.</p><p>You cannot fix the Fed&#39;s pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p><p>The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they&#39;re trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.</p><p>Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Everyone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEveryone's Waiting For A Rate Cut - But The Fed's Already Shown Its Hand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-03 11:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.</p><p>QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic&#39;s whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.</p><p>The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.</p><p>Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about &#34;ample reserves&#34; and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.</p><h2 id=\"id_1832511598\">The motel closed at midnight</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.</p></blockquote><p>The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed&#39;s overflow tank for Wall Street&#39;s cash.</p><p>Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.</p><p>At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.</p><p>As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed&#39;s manager called it a night.</p><p>This is being sold as &#34;normalization.&#34; That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed&#39;s shock absorber is gone.</p><p>While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.</p><p>Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn&#39;t.</p><p>Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.</p><p>If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. &#34;Higher-for-longer&#34; would be the market&#39;s initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of &#34;is my money-market fund actually safe?&#34;</p><p>We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2b3f4908f6e804334ee260f4b120c1f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_647746906\">The spare tire they said they&#39;d never need</h2><blockquote><p>The Fed&#39;s Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p></blockquote><p>Then there&#39;s the Standing Repo Facility. That&#39;s the Fed&#39;s emergency lending window. The backstop they said they&#39;d &#34;hardly ever use.&#34; The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It&#39;s the central bank&#39;s credit card for when things get weird.</p><p>It&#39;s been getting real weird.</p><p>Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it&#39;s Tuesday.</p><p>Here&#39;s the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed&#39;s own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed&#39;s supposed &#34;emergency&#34; rate. That&#39;s not a technical adjustment. That&#39;s a failure of monetary control. That&#39;s the Fed admitting it can&#39;t actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.</p><p>When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don&#39;t have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.</p><h2 id=\"id_1560962788\">Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here&#39;s why.</h2><blockquote><p>The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p></blockquote><p>The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn&#39;t announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.</p><p>The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it&#39;s wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.</p><p>That&#39;s not policy. That&#39;s damage control.</p><p>So what do you do? Here&#39;s the short version: Make sure your &#34;safe&#34; money isn&#39;t the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.</p><p>For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.</p><p>Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.</p><p>For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don&#39;t take the bait. I&#39;ve said it before and I&#39;ll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn&#39;t a sign of strength. It&#39;s a sign it ran out of other buyers.</p><p>For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.</p><p>For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the &#34;I don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the &#34;I really, really don&#39;t trust the system&#34; trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.</p><h2 id=\"id_3282049461\">The confession nobody wants to hear</h2><blockquote><p>Check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p></blockquote><p>The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.</p><p>It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed&#39;s overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.</p><p>The next act will be quiet &#34;reserve-management&#34; buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.</p><p>You cannot fix the Fed&#39;s pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.</p><p>The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they&#39;re trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.</p><p>Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://dowjonesnews.com/newdjn/logon.aspx?AL=N","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2588096989","content_text":"The Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening on Dec. 1. Not because everything is fine, but because the money pipes are clogged and someone finally smelled gas.QT was the Fed shrinking its balance sheet by letting bonds die of old age without replacing them. They launched it in 2022 to drain the COVID-19 pandemic's whiskey binge from the financial bloodstream. Noble goal. Except now reserves have dropped to the point where one more month of this virtue might crack something in the funding markets.The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility once held about $2.5 trillion in spare cash, like a giant mattress stuffed with money nobody needed yet. That mattress is empty. The cash migrated into your money-market fund, which means you are now the mattress.Why stop now? Fed Chair Jerome Powell mumbled something about \"ample reserves\" and pointed back to 2019, when the repo market seized up overnight and forced the Fed to rush in with emergency cash. Translation from the original Fedspeak: The engine is making sounds that remind us of expensive repairs.The motel closed at midnightThe Fed's shock absorber is gone. No cushion. Just friction.The overnight reverse repo facility is a mouthful of bureaucratic nothing that describes something important: the Fed's overflow tank for Wall Street's cash.Money-market funds with spare billions could park cash at the Fed overnight in exchange for Treasurys and a little interest. Clean, safe. The Fed managed liquidity. Wall Street earned basis points while sleeping.At the peak in 2022, that tank held about $2.5 trillion. A luxury motel for cash with nowhere else to go.As of this fall, occupancy is nearly zero - roughly $20 billion to $30 billion on a good day. The New York Fed's manager called it a night.This is being sold as \"normalization.\" That is what bureaucrats say when nothing else works. The Fed's shock absorber is gone.While that motel was packed, extra cash had a place to park. Now when Treasury auctions hit, when corporations pay taxes, when quarter-ends roll around and everyone wants to move money at once, that demand pulls directly from bank reserves. No cushion. Just friction.Remember September 2019? Probably not, unless you work in finance or have anxiety issues. Corporate tax payments and a big Treasury auction hit together, cash drained and overnight repo rates jumped from 2% to 10% within days. The Fed rushed in with emergency liquidity. Everyone called it technical. It wasn't.Another 2019-style liquidity crunch means overnight funding costs could spike, which can ripple into higher yields and volatility across markets, not just for the pros but for anyone buying bonds, holding a money-market fund or relying on credit.If the Fed has to scramble again, it might have to open the financial firehose unexpectedly, jolting rates and prices for savers, borrowers and investors. \"Higher-for-longer\" would be the market's initial guess, with all the works: pricier mortgages, risk-off in stocks and another round of \"is my money-market fund actually safe?\"We are closer to that moment now than we have been in six years. The safety valves are drained, reserves are lower - and your money-market fund is the first domino. The chart below shows the Fed repo facility usage timeline of the three major stress events: the 2019 repo crisis, the 2020 COVID-19 emergency and the current spike as reserves drain from the end of QT.The spare tire they said they'd never needThe Fed's Standing Repo Facility is a credit card for when things get weird. It's been getting real weird.Then there's the Standing Repo Facility. That's the Fed's emergency lending window. The backstop they said they'd \"hardly ever use.\" The facility that lets big dealers hand over Treasurys and get overnight cash at a preset rate. It's the central bank's credit card for when things get weird.It's been getting real weird.Some days, dealers have borrowed up to $10 billion from the facility. Used to be that this was a quarterly thing. Now it's Tuesday.Here's the tell: Private repo rates are printing above the Fed's own ceiling on this facility. Which means the system is so tight that people are actually paying more to borrow in private markets than the Fed's supposed \"emergency\" rate. That's not a technical adjustment. That's a failure of monetary control. That's the Fed admitting it can't actually set the price of money anymore. The market is doing it for them.When your emergency credit card becomes your everyday card, you don't have an emergency plan anymore. You have a problem.Your money-market fund is a hostage. Here's why.The government buying its own debt isn't a sign of strength. It's a sign it ran out of other buyers.The Fed halted quantitative tightening a year ahead of schedule. Officials first signaled the move in late October and formally confirmed it in the minutes released on Nov. 19. They didn't announce this as a victory. They announced it like someone admitting they ran out of gas and had to call AAA.The reason? Reserves are running too low. Funding markets are fragile. The plumbing is clogged, and the Fed thinks it's wise not to keep draining the tank while something is clearly wrong.That's not policy. That's damage control.So what do you do? Here's the short version: Make sure your \"safe\" money isn't the first thing to suffer when the pipes burst.For your money-market funds: Prime money-market funds own corporate paper and other commercial debt, the kind of stuff that runs into trouble when funding tightens. Government money-market funds own Treasurys and Fed-backed repos, and they are safer when the financial system gets a fever.Move there and stay there. Avoid Treasury bills that mature on Dec. 31 and March 31 - the quarter-ends. Repo stress historically spikes at those times, and bills trade at a discount because nobody wants to be holding them when the pipes rattle.For your bonds: The Fed is now buying $40 billion to $50 billion a month in Treasurys. A price-insensitive buyer is back in the market. That puts a floor under prices for now, but don't take the bait. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Stay out of long bonds. The government buying its own debt isn't a sign of strength. It's a sign it ran out of other buyers.For stocks: When money gets tight, people buy defensive stuff. That means companies with steady cash flow, low debt and products people need whether times are good or bad. Financial stocks get whacked first because banks live and die on repo markets working smoothly.For gold and crypto: Gold (GC00) is the \"I don't trust the system\" trade. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is the \"I really, really don't trust the system\" trade. If the Secured Overnight Financing Rate - the benchmark cost of overnight dollar funding - spikes and margin calls go out, both get bought as the financial system seizes up, because SOFR is the number that tells you when the pipes are bursting.The confession nobody wants to hearCheck where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.The Federal Reserve has ended quantitative tightening - the process of letting bonds mature without replacement that it launched in 2022 to drain pandemic liquidity and look tough on inflation.It is ending because cash reserves are sliding toward levels where ordinary month-end flows cause extraordinary headaches. The Fed's overnight reverse repo facility, which once parked about $2.5 trillion, is practically empty. That cushion walked off the balance sheet and into your money-market fund.The next act will be quiet \"reserve-management\" buying of short-term Treasurys to keep reserves from dropping through the floor, the kind of plumbing work balance-sheet watchers are already gaming out in their notes. Markets will find it pleasantly cushy.You cannot fix the Fed's pipes. You cannot make banks lend reserves they would rather hug, or persuade dealers to take funding risk just to be good sports. What you can do is check where your cash is parked as the central bank walks liquidity to the edge of what the system can bear.The warning light is on. Powell just eased up on the gas to drop to 55 mph from 70 and patted your knee. You are in the passenger seat with no seat belt, and the dashboard lights are blinking like they're trying to tell you something in Morse code, which you never learned.Charlie Garcia is founder and a managing partner of R360, a peer-to-peer organization for individuals and families with a net worth of $100 million or more. He holds gold and bitcoin in his personal account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":2,"US7Y.BOND":1.5,"YMmain":2,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"US12M.BOND":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"US6M.BOND":1.5,"ESmain":2,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"US2Y.BOND":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":502754222674016,"gmtCreate":1763751339284,"gmtModify":1763751341661,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great article, would you like to share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/502754222674016","repostId":"2585404721","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":335186904461408,"gmtCreate":1722839287998,"gmtModify":1722839807373,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Holy sh....","listText":"Holy sh....","text":"Holy sh....","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d321cc52e6a6c1f86a4b2e41bc626c16","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/335186904461408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947208000,"gmtCreate":1683143491801,"gmtModify":1683165725953,"author":{"id":"3581588317757356","authorId":"3581588317757356","name":"chuan3","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581588317757356","authorIdStr":"3581588317757356"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","listText":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","text":"No more rate hike in next meeting? Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947208000","repostId":"1185631860","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185631860","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1683136852,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185631860?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-04 02:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185631860","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a ye","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.<br/>Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.<br/>The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“<br/>The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.<br/>Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.<br/>The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.<br/>Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Increases Rates a Quarter Point and Signals a Potential End to Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-05-04 02:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.<br/>Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.<br/>The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“<br/>The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.<br/>Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.<br/>The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.<br/>Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185631860","content_text":"The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved its 10th interest rate increase in just a little over a year and dropped a tentative hint that the current tightening cycle is at an end.In a unanimous decision widely expected by markets, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25 percentage point. The rate sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds through to many consumer debt products such as mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.The increase takes the fed funds rate to a target range of 5%-5.25%, the highest since August 2007.Markets, though, are more focused on where the Fed will be going from here, particularly amid concerns over economic growth and a lingering bank crisis that has rattled nerves on Wall Street.The post-meeting statement offered only some clarity, and not by what it said but what it didn’t say.The document omitted a sentence present in the previous statement saying that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate” for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation goal.Also, the statement tweaked language to outline the conditions under which “additional policy firming may be appropriate.” Previously, the FOMC had framed the forward guidance around how it would determine “the extent of future increases in the target range.“The statement reiterated that the Fed “will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”Taken together, the moves are at least a tenuous nod that while tight policy could remain in effect, the path ahead is less clear for actual interest rate hikes as policymakers assess incoming data and financial conditions.Wednesday’s decision comes amid U.S. economic fragility and over the objections of prominent Democratic lawmakers, who urged the Fed this week to stop rate hikes that they insisted could cause a recession and excessive loss of jobs.However, the labor market has remained strong since the increases started in March 2022. At the same time, inflation is still well above the 2% target that policymakers consider optimum. Multiple officials have said rates probably will need to stay elevated even if the increases are put on hold.Along with inflation, the Fed has had to deal with tumult in the banking industry that has seen three mid-size banks shuttered.Though central bank officials insist the industry as a whole is stable, an expected tightening in credit conditions and heightened regulations ahead are expected to weigh further on economic growth that was just 1.1% annualized in the first quarter.The post-meeting statement noted that “tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation.” The language was similar to the March statement, which came just after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.The Fed’s own economists at the March FOMC meeting warned that a shallow recession is likely due to the banking issues.The statement from this week’s meeting reiterated that economic growth has been “modest” while “job gains have been robust” and inflation is “elevated.”While higher rates have compounded the banking problems, Fed officials insist they are focused squarely on inflation. Recent data points have indicated a softening in price increases, though “sticky” items such as housing costs and medical care have remained higher, while prices that tend to change a lot, such as food and energy, actually have decelerated, according to Atlanta Fed calculations.Markets are anticipating that slower growth and the possibility of recession will force the Fed to cut rates later this year.Manufacturing has been in contraction for the past six months, according to an Institute for Supply Management gauge. However, the services sector, which entails a broader slice of the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy and has been pointing to expansion.The labor market also has remained resilient. Payroll processing firm ADP reported Wednesday that hiring by private sector companies increased by 296,000 in April, well ahead of economists’ expectation. That served as a potential signal that for all the Fed’s efforts to cool the jobs picture and correct a supply-demand imbalance, issues remain.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}