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niselle
2021-07-31
What about Datadog
2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now
niselle
2021-07-31
The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...
Nvidia Stock In 10 Years: What You Should Consider
Go to Tiger App to see more news
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about Datadog","listText":"What about Datadog","text":"What about Datadog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806539010","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155377091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627655924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155377091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155377091","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies are building the future.","content":"<p>One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for companies that could benefit over the long term.</p>\n<p>For instance, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> Systems</b> (NASDAQ:ADBE) is powering digital transformation, and <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) is revolutionizing the automotive industry. More importantly, both should continue to benefit from these unstoppable trends in the years ahead.</p>\n<p>Here's what you should know.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb1366dacb2068774afb3d293f73be94\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. Adobe Systems</h2>\n<p>A digital-first business model is no longer optional -- it's a necessity. Each year, more consumers shop online, connect through social media, and engage with mobile apps, and they expect a high-quality experience across every touchpoint. Fortunately, Adobe has the tools to make that happen.</p>\n<p>Adobe is best known for its digital media business, which comprises two platforms. The first is Adobe Creative Cloud, a software suite that includes industry-leading products like Photoshop for image editing, Illustrator for graphics, and InDesign for digital publishing.</p>\n<p>The second is Adobe Document Cloud, a suite that enables clients to create, edit, share, and sign digital documents. Collectively, these tools drive efficiency by eliminating costly paper-based processes.</p>\n<p>Beyond digital media, Adobe also offers a third platform: Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud. This software helps clients with analytics, marketing, and commerce, making it possible to collect data, target content, and deliver engaging experiences across digital touchpoints. Notably, research company <b>Gartner</b> has recognized Adobe as a leader in this category.</p>\n<p>With this impressive arsenal of products, the company has delivered strong financial results like clockwork in recent years.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2018 (TTM)</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2021 (TTM)</p></th>\n <th><p>CAGR</p></th>\n </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$8.1 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$14.4 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>21%</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>Free cash flow</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$3.3 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$6.6 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>26%</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, the bull case for this company is straightforward: Adobe has built a trusted brand and established itself as a leader in several software verticals. As more enterprises adopt digital-first strategies, Adobe should benefit from strong demand.</p>\n<p>With that in mind, management puts the company's market opportunity at $147 billion by 2023, leaving plenty of room for Adobe to grow its business. That's why this tech company looks like a smart buy.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cdffd4a7b56387c2ad8ab4d5b1a5e95\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"369\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Tesla</span></p>\n<h2>2. Tesla</h2>\n<p>The electric vehicle (EV) market is growing quickly. Last year, global EV sales surged 41% to 3.1 million units, representing 4.6% of all cars sold. Despite that furious pace of adoption, Tesla managed to boost production and maintain its industry-leading position, capturing 16% market share in 2020.</p>\n<p>At the same time, Tesla posted an industry-leading operating margin of 6.3% last year, showcasing the scalability of its manufacturing process. In fact, between 2017 and 2021, the company's average cost per vehicle dropped from $84,000 to $38,000 as it increased output in the U.S. and ramped production China.</p>\n<p>But this disruptor is just getting started. Tesla recently purchased the largest die casting machine in the world. And in early 2021, it started making the rear body of the Model Y as a single piece of metal, cutting labor costs by combining 70 different components into <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>. But here's the most impressive part: To accomplish that feat, Tesla invented and patented new aluminum alloys, since existing options made poor substrates for die casting.</p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, Tesla has delivered impressive financial results in recent years.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2018 (TTM)</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2021 (TTM)</p></th>\n <th><p>CAGR</p></th>\n </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$13.7 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$41.9 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>45%</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>Gross profit margin</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>14.4%</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>22%</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>N/A</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p>\n<p>During the Q2 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said Gigafactory Texas and Berlin will use single-piece casting for both the front and rear bodies of the Model Y. In other words, Tesla is pressing its advantage. And as these factories come online later in 2021, the company should reap the benefits of increased production capacity and manufacturing efficiency.</p>\n<p>That's why now looks like a good time to buy this growth stock.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 22:38 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155377091","content_text":"One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for companies that could benefit over the long term.\nFor instance, Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) is powering digital transformation, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is revolutionizing the automotive industry. More importantly, both should continue to benefit from these unstoppable trends in the years ahead.\nHere's what you should know.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. Adobe Systems\nA digital-first business model is no longer optional -- it's a necessity. Each year, more consumers shop online, connect through social media, and engage with mobile apps, and they expect a high-quality experience across every touchpoint. Fortunately, Adobe has the tools to make that happen.\nAdobe is best known for its digital media business, which comprises two platforms. The first is Adobe Creative Cloud, a software suite that includes industry-leading products like Photoshop for image editing, Illustrator for graphics, and InDesign for digital publishing.\nThe second is Adobe Document Cloud, a suite that enables clients to create, edit, share, and sign digital documents. Collectively, these tools drive efficiency by eliminating costly paper-based processes.\nBeyond digital media, Adobe also offers a third platform: Adobe Experience Cloud. This software helps clients with analytics, marketing, and commerce, making it possible to collect data, target content, and deliver engaging experiences across digital touchpoints. Notably, research company Gartner has recognized Adobe as a leader in this category.\nWith this impressive arsenal of products, the company has delivered strong financial results like clockwork in recent years.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2018 (TTM)\nQ2 2021 (TTM)\nCAGR\n\n\n\n\nRevenue\n$8.1 billion\n$14.4 billion\n21%\n\n\nFree cash flow\n$3.3 billion\n$6.6 billion\n26%\n\n\n\nData source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.\nLooking ahead, the bull case for this company is straightforward: Adobe has built a trusted brand and established itself as a leader in several software verticals. As more enterprises adopt digital-first strategies, Adobe should benefit from strong demand.\nWith that in mind, management puts the company's market opportunity at $147 billion by 2023, leaving plenty of room for Adobe to grow its business. That's why this tech company looks like a smart buy.\nImage source: Tesla\n2. Tesla\nThe electric vehicle (EV) market is growing quickly. Last year, global EV sales surged 41% to 3.1 million units, representing 4.6% of all cars sold. Despite that furious pace of adoption, Tesla managed to boost production and maintain its industry-leading position, capturing 16% market share in 2020.\nAt the same time, Tesla posted an industry-leading operating margin of 6.3% last year, showcasing the scalability of its manufacturing process. In fact, between 2017 and 2021, the company's average cost per vehicle dropped from $84,000 to $38,000 as it increased output in the U.S. and ramped production China.\nBut this disruptor is just getting started. Tesla recently purchased the largest die casting machine in the world. And in early 2021, it started making the rear body of the Model Y as a single piece of metal, cutting labor costs by combining 70 different components into one. But here's the most impressive part: To accomplish that feat, Tesla invented and patented new aluminum alloys, since existing options made poor substrates for die casting.\nNot surprisingly, Tesla has delivered impressive financial results in recent years.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2018 (TTM)\nQ2 2021 (TTM)\nCAGR\n\n\n\n\nRevenue\n$13.7 billion\n$41.9 billion\n45%\n\n\nGross profit margin\n14.4%\n22%\nN/A\n\n\n\nSource: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.\nDuring the Q2 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said Gigafactory Texas and Berlin will use single-piece casting for both the front and rear bodies of the Model Y. In other words, Tesla is pressing its advantage. And as these factories come online later in 2021, the company should reap the benefits of increased production capacity and manufacturing efficiency.\nThat's why now looks like a good time to buy this growth stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806597751,"gmtCreate":1627664652073,"gmtModify":1703494443895,"author":{"id":"3581596246517975","authorId":"3581596246517975","name":"niselle","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581596246517975","authorIdStr":"3581596246517975"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","listText":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","text":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806597751","repostId":"1157771608","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157771608","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627653929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157771608?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock In 10 Years: What You Should Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157771608","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will n","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will not repeat over the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company offers strong quality, great management, and has an attractive growth outlook, but shares are expensive.</li>\n <li>In the long run, returns will most likely be solid, but it may be better to wait for a lower price before entering or expanding a position.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f0d217100f82ddae3cfb3e50178504\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1017\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Antonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is one of the best growth mega-caps from a fundamental perspective and when it comes to the company's business growth potential. The stock trades, however, at a pretty high valuation, compared to other semiconductor stocks and relative to other growth mega-caps. To some extent, this premium valuation is justified, but it seems logical to assume that total returns will, in the long run, be negatively impacted by multiple compression. Over the next decade, NVIDIA Corporation still has considerable upside potential, even though I assume that its valuation will compress significantly.</p>\n<p><b>Will NVIDIA Stock Continue To Rise?</b></p>\n<p>There are two answers to this question, I believe. In the short term, price action is driven by sentiment, news items, etc. to a large degree, so it is more or less impossible to forecast where the price will be a week, a month, or half a year from now. NVIDIA has a beta of 1.4, which means that, generally, it moves in the same direction as the broad market, but with more pronounced movements. So if the market rises by 10% over the next half-year, one may reasonably assume that NVIDIA will rise by 14% over the same time frame. Since short-term moves in the broad market are largely driven by things like Fed statements, sentiment, worries about the Delta variant, etc. there is a lot of uncertainty for where broad markets and NVIDIA will head over the near future. NVIDIA's current RSI (relative strength index) is 54, which indicates that shares are neither overbought nor oversold today. The current analyst price target, per YCharts, is $194, which is almost perfectly in line with the current share price. Prices could move up or down in the near term, the price target consensus and the RSI paint a mostly neutral picture for now. Shares could continue to climb, but this is far from certain, and I surely wouldn't speculate on significant gains in the near term.</p>\n<p>In the long run, share prices are largely driven by earnings growth and changes in a stock's valuation, thus sentiment or news items are less important when it comes to NVIDIA's share price a decade from now. It is, of course, not possible to forecast the share price exactly, but we can look at scenarios that paint a picture of where shares could be heading. As I am a long-term focused investor and not much of a trader, the question of where NVIDIA will be a decade from now is, I believe, the more important one compared to the question of where NVIDIA will be in September or December.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will NVIDIA Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Let's start with the note that NVIDIA's performance over the last ten years, a 5,500% gain, will certainly not repeat over the next decade. This would make NVIDIA's market capitalization balloon to<i>$27 trillion</i>, which is absolutely unrealistic, I believe, even for a high-growth company like NVIDIA. Nevertheless, even if future share price gains are less exciting, NVIDIA could still be a very solid investment, as ten-year returns of 5,000%+ are not at all required to make a stock a solid choice.</p>\n<p>Today, NVIDIA trades at 49x this year's expected net profits, which is a rather high valuation, especially for a company with a market cap as large as NVIDIA's. Most other high-growth mega-caps, such as Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) trade at significantly lower valuations, with earnings multiples around 30. Tesla (TSLA) is even more expensive than NVIDIA, trading at more than 100x this year's net profits, but I believe that this is not a great example of where growth stocks should trade, as I believe that TSLA is significantly overvalued.</p>\n<p>Going back to NVIDIA, we can also look at how the company was valued in the past:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21096a0f152ce54df29d8bc2e5c8aae6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The 5-year to 10-year median earnings multiples are 29-48 for NVDA, thus it looks like shares are definitely trading on the expensive side today. It should be noted that the growth outlook a couple of years ago, when NVIDIA was significantly smaller, was better than it is today, mainly due to the law of large numbers, which states that maintaining high relative growth rates becomes harder as a company grows in size. The fact that shares are currently trading well above the longer-term median valuation is thus noteworthy, as one might expect that valuations<i>decline</i>as a company matures.</p>\n<p>Compared to other semi stocks, NVIDIA looks relatively expensive as well:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8062ce7784ae57f6f527806ea7c1661\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>NVIDIA trades at a premium to direct peers such as AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC), and its stock is also more expensive than that of other large-cap semis such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Broadcom (AVGO). An above-average valuation does make sense, thanks to NVIDIA's outstanding fundamentals and strong growth rates, but it seems highly doubtful whether the company will continue to trade at almost 50x net profits forever.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA addresses a range of growth markets, such as data centers, gaming equipment, and so on. These markets will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, but they do, of course, not grow by 80% a year forever, which was NVIDIA's top-line growth rate during the most recent quarter. It thus seems very likely that revenue growth will slow down considerably from the current level, even when we assume that NVIDIA will continue to take market share here and there, e.g. in data centers.</p>\n<p>Analysts do thus, not surprisingly, see a considerable slowdown in NVIDIA's business growth in the coming years, even though growth will remain highly attractive for sure:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0145bdde6aebd5b6b694c80e0addfa80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Revenue growth of almost 50% this year, and of 11%-16% over the following four years is still pretty attractive for sure, relative to how the average company and the economy are growing. It also seems possible that NVIDIA will beat analyst estimates, delivering somewhat higher growth, as the company has a history of delivering upside estimates -- nine out of the last ten quarterly releases beat estimates on both lines. Even if we assume that analyst estimates are too conservative, it seems relatively logical that they will at least be in the ballpark of where actual results will land -- a revenue growth rate of 80% for the remainder of 2021, or a revenue growth rate of 50% for 2022, is not realistic.</p>\n<p>When we assume that the current revenue estimates for 2025 are too low by ~10%, and that actual revenues will total $45 billion, and that revenues will grow by 10% a year between 2026 and 2031, we get to a 2031 top line of $80 billion. Right now, NVDA's net margin is 34% (most recent quarter), which is outstanding. Operating leverage should lift NVDA's operating margin in the coming years, but on the other hand, NVDA's current tax rate is pretty low at 3% during the most recent quarter. When we assume that tax rates will climb to 10%, this could offset tailwinds from operating margin expansion, thus it is far from guaranteed that NVDA's net margin will rise by a lot. If the net margin stands at 35% in 2031, NVDA would earn about $28 billion in net profits a decade from now. If the share count remains unchanged, that would equate to earnings per share of $11.10. If NVDA were to trade at the same 49x net profits it trades at today, that would lead to a share price of $540, which would equate to total returns of 180%. As mentioned earlier, I believe that multiple compression is likely, due to a range of reasons -- slowing growth, the current premium to the historic median, and the current premium over the broad market and NVDA's peers.</p>\n<p>When we do, thus, assume that the valuation compresses to around 30x net profits, which would be relatively in-line with the 10-year median earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $330 a decade from now. Over the next decade, this would pencil out to returns of a little over 70%, or about 5%-6% a year. NVDA wouldn't be a bad choice in this scenario, but not an outstanding pick, either. We can also look at a somewhat more optimistic scenario where NVDA grows its revenue by 15% a year between 2026 and 2031, in that case, with everything else held constant, NVDA would trade at $430 in 2031, which would allow for total returns of 8%-9% a year from the current price of $195.</p>\n<p>Overall, I thus believe that it is very likely that investors will see gains from the current level in the long run, but those gains will likely be far lower compared to what we have seen in recent years. High-single-digit annual returns seem like a realistic target range from the current, elevated, valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Is NVIDIA A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA has great fundamentals, a clean balance sheet, strong margins and returns on capital, excellent management, and is in a great position tech-wise. On top of that, NVDA operates in a growing industry that is integral to our way of life. Overall, those are some great reasons to invest in its stock, but there is one additional factor that investors should keep in mind. NVDA's valuation is well above the long-term median, well above the valuations of its peers, and it seems pretty likely that this valuation will eventually compress, as growth will inevitably decline from the current immense 80% year-over-year pace. I would thus say that NVDA is a good long-term investment for sure, but not at every price. At current prices, it seems like a solid long-term investment, but not like a spectacular one. Others that have different growth assumptions or that see a different target earnings multiple 5 or 10 years from now will potentially have a different opinion on that, however.</p>\n<p><b>Is NVIDIA Stock A Good Buy Right Now?</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA undoubtedly has been a great buy for almost everyone that bought over the last decade, but past returns do not equate to future returns. It is almost guaranteed that returns in the coming years will be significantly lower than what we have seen over the last decade. I believe that returns, in the long run, will be solid, but I do not believe that the current return outlook makes NVDA a screaming buy at current prices. NVDA traded at less than $140 (split-adjusted) a couple of months ago, and at that price, I'd see shares as a way better investment. At $190+, shares are too expensive for me to buy right now, although they can be a solid hold for everyone that bought earlier for sure.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock In 10 Years: What You Should Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock In 10 Years: What You Should Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 22:05 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442717-nvidia-stock-in-10-years-what-you-should-consider><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will not repeat over the next decade.\nThe company offers strong quality, great management, and has an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442717-nvidia-stock-in-10-years-what-you-should-consider\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442717-nvidia-stock-in-10-years-what-you-should-consider","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157771608","content_text":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will not repeat over the next decade.\nThe company offers strong quality, great management, and has an attractive growth outlook, but shares are expensive.\nIn the long run, returns will most likely be solid, but it may be better to wait for a lower price before entering or expanding a position.\n\nAntonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is one of the best growth mega-caps from a fundamental perspective and when it comes to the company's business growth potential. The stock trades, however, at a pretty high valuation, compared to other semiconductor stocks and relative to other growth mega-caps. To some extent, this premium valuation is justified, but it seems logical to assume that total returns will, in the long run, be negatively impacted by multiple compression. Over the next decade, NVIDIA Corporation still has considerable upside potential, even though I assume that its valuation will compress significantly.\nWill NVIDIA Stock Continue To Rise?\nThere are two answers to this question, I believe. In the short term, price action is driven by sentiment, news items, etc. to a large degree, so it is more or less impossible to forecast where the price will be a week, a month, or half a year from now. NVIDIA has a beta of 1.4, which means that, generally, it moves in the same direction as the broad market, but with more pronounced movements. So if the market rises by 10% over the next half-year, one may reasonably assume that NVIDIA will rise by 14% over the same time frame. Since short-term moves in the broad market are largely driven by things like Fed statements, sentiment, worries about the Delta variant, etc. there is a lot of uncertainty for where broad markets and NVIDIA will head over the near future. NVIDIA's current RSI (relative strength index) is 54, which indicates that shares are neither overbought nor oversold today. The current analyst price target, per YCharts, is $194, which is almost perfectly in line with the current share price. Prices could move up or down in the near term, the price target consensus and the RSI paint a mostly neutral picture for now. Shares could continue to climb, but this is far from certain, and I surely wouldn't speculate on significant gains in the near term.\nIn the long run, share prices are largely driven by earnings growth and changes in a stock's valuation, thus sentiment or news items are less important when it comes to NVIDIA's share price a decade from now. It is, of course, not possible to forecast the share price exactly, but we can look at scenarios that paint a picture of where shares could be heading. As I am a long-term focused investor and not much of a trader, the question of where NVIDIA will be a decade from now is, I believe, the more important one compared to the question of where NVIDIA will be in September or December.\nWhere Will NVIDIA Stock Be In 10 Years\nLet's start with the note that NVIDIA's performance over the last ten years, a 5,500% gain, will certainly not repeat over the next decade. This would make NVIDIA's market capitalization balloon to$27 trillion, which is absolutely unrealistic, I believe, even for a high-growth company like NVIDIA. Nevertheless, even if future share price gains are less exciting, NVIDIA could still be a very solid investment, as ten-year returns of 5,000%+ are not at all required to make a stock a solid choice.\nToday, NVIDIA trades at 49x this year's expected net profits, which is a rather high valuation, especially for a company with a market cap as large as NVIDIA's. Most other high-growth mega-caps, such as Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) trade at significantly lower valuations, with earnings multiples around 30. Tesla (TSLA) is even more expensive than NVIDIA, trading at more than 100x this year's net profits, but I believe that this is not a great example of where growth stocks should trade, as I believe that TSLA is significantly overvalued.\nGoing back to NVIDIA, we can also look at how the company was valued in the past:\nData by YCharts\nThe 5-year to 10-year median earnings multiples are 29-48 for NVDA, thus it looks like shares are definitely trading on the expensive side today. It should be noted that the growth outlook a couple of years ago, when NVIDIA was significantly smaller, was better than it is today, mainly due to the law of large numbers, which states that maintaining high relative growth rates becomes harder as a company grows in size. The fact that shares are currently trading well above the longer-term median valuation is thus noteworthy, as one might expect that valuationsdeclineas a company matures.\nCompared to other semi stocks, NVIDIA looks relatively expensive as well:\nData by YCharts\nNVIDIA trades at a premium to direct peers such as AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC), and its stock is also more expensive than that of other large-cap semis such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Broadcom (AVGO). An above-average valuation does make sense, thanks to NVIDIA's outstanding fundamentals and strong growth rates, but it seems highly doubtful whether the company will continue to trade at almost 50x net profits forever.\nNVIDIA addresses a range of growth markets, such as data centers, gaming equipment, and so on. These markets will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, but they do, of course, not grow by 80% a year forever, which was NVIDIA's top-line growth rate during the most recent quarter. It thus seems very likely that revenue growth will slow down considerably from the current level, even when we assume that NVIDIA will continue to take market share here and there, e.g. in data centers.\nAnalysts do thus, not surprisingly, see a considerable slowdown in NVIDIA's business growth in the coming years, even though growth will remain highly attractive for sure:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nRevenue growth of almost 50% this year, and of 11%-16% over the following four years is still pretty attractive for sure, relative to how the average company and the economy are growing. It also seems possible that NVIDIA will beat analyst estimates, delivering somewhat higher growth, as the company has a history of delivering upside estimates -- nine out of the last ten quarterly releases beat estimates on both lines. Even if we assume that analyst estimates are too conservative, it seems relatively logical that they will at least be in the ballpark of where actual results will land -- a revenue growth rate of 80% for the remainder of 2021, or a revenue growth rate of 50% for 2022, is not realistic.\nWhen we assume that the current revenue estimates for 2025 are too low by ~10%, and that actual revenues will total $45 billion, and that revenues will grow by 10% a year between 2026 and 2031, we get to a 2031 top line of $80 billion. Right now, NVDA's net margin is 34% (most recent quarter), which is outstanding. Operating leverage should lift NVDA's operating margin in the coming years, but on the other hand, NVDA's current tax rate is pretty low at 3% during the most recent quarter. When we assume that tax rates will climb to 10%, this could offset tailwinds from operating margin expansion, thus it is far from guaranteed that NVDA's net margin will rise by a lot. If the net margin stands at 35% in 2031, NVDA would earn about $28 billion in net profits a decade from now. If the share count remains unchanged, that would equate to earnings per share of $11.10. If NVDA were to trade at the same 49x net profits it trades at today, that would lead to a share price of $540, which would equate to total returns of 180%. As mentioned earlier, I believe that multiple compression is likely, due to a range of reasons -- slowing growth, the current premium to the historic median, and the current premium over the broad market and NVDA's peers.\nWhen we do, thus, assume that the valuation compresses to around 30x net profits, which would be relatively in-line with the 10-year median earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $330 a decade from now. Over the next decade, this would pencil out to returns of a little over 70%, or about 5%-6% a year. NVDA wouldn't be a bad choice in this scenario, but not an outstanding pick, either. We can also look at a somewhat more optimistic scenario where NVDA grows its revenue by 15% a year between 2026 and 2031, in that case, with everything else held constant, NVDA would trade at $430 in 2031, which would allow for total returns of 8%-9% a year from the current price of $195.\nOverall, I thus believe that it is very likely that investors will see gains from the current level in the long run, but those gains will likely be far lower compared to what we have seen in recent years. High-single-digit annual returns seem like a realistic target range from the current, elevated, valuation.\nIs NVIDIA A Good Long-Term Investment?\nNVIDIA has great fundamentals, a clean balance sheet, strong margins and returns on capital, excellent management, and is in a great position tech-wise. On top of that, NVDA operates in a growing industry that is integral to our way of life. Overall, those are some great reasons to invest in its stock, but there is one additional factor that investors should keep in mind. NVDA's valuation is well above the long-term median, well above the valuations of its peers, and it seems pretty likely that this valuation will eventually compress, as growth will inevitably decline from the current immense 80% year-over-year pace. I would thus say that NVDA is a good long-term investment for sure, but not at every price. At current prices, it seems like a solid long-term investment, but not like a spectacular one. Others that have different growth assumptions or that see a different target earnings multiple 5 or 10 years from now will potentially have a different opinion on that, however.\nIs NVIDIA Stock A Good Buy Right Now?\nNVIDIA undoubtedly has been a great buy for almost everyone that bought over the last decade, but past returns do not equate to future returns. It is almost guaranteed that returns in the coming years will be significantly lower than what we have seen over the last decade. I believe that returns, in the long run, will be solid, but I do not believe that the current return outlook makes NVDA a screaming buy at current prices. NVDA traded at less than $140 (split-adjusted) a couple of months ago, and at that price, I'd see shares as a way better investment. At $190+, shares are too expensive for me to buy right now, although they can be a solid hold for everyone that bought earlier for sure.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":806539010,"gmtCreate":1627664792430,"gmtModify":1703494445216,"author":{"id":"3581596246517975","authorId":"3581596246517975","name":"niselle","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581596246517975","authorIdStr":"3581596246517975"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What about Datadog","listText":"What about Datadog","text":"What about Datadog","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806539010","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155377091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627655924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155377091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155377091","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies are building the future.","content":"<p>One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for companies that could benefit over the long term.</p>\n<p>For instance, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> Systems</b> (NASDAQ:ADBE) is powering digital transformation, and <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) is revolutionizing the automotive industry. More importantly, both should continue to benefit from these unstoppable trends in the years ahead.</p>\n<p>Here's what you should know.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb1366dacb2068774afb3d293f73be94\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. Adobe Systems</h2>\n<p>A digital-first business model is no longer optional -- it's a necessity. Each year, more consumers shop online, connect through social media, and engage with mobile apps, and they expect a high-quality experience across every touchpoint. Fortunately, Adobe has the tools to make that happen.</p>\n<p>Adobe is best known for its digital media business, which comprises two platforms. The first is Adobe Creative Cloud, a software suite that includes industry-leading products like Photoshop for image editing, Illustrator for graphics, and InDesign for digital publishing.</p>\n<p>The second is Adobe Document Cloud, a suite that enables clients to create, edit, share, and sign digital documents. Collectively, these tools drive efficiency by eliminating costly paper-based processes.</p>\n<p>Beyond digital media, Adobe also offers a third platform: Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud. This software helps clients with analytics, marketing, and commerce, making it possible to collect data, target content, and deliver engaging experiences across digital touchpoints. Notably, research company <b>Gartner</b> has recognized Adobe as a leader in this category.</p>\n<p>With this impressive arsenal of products, the company has delivered strong financial results like clockwork in recent years.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2018 (TTM)</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2021 (TTM)</p></th>\n <th><p>CAGR</p></th>\n </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$8.1 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$14.4 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>21%</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>Free cash flow</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$3.3 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$6.6 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>26%</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, the bull case for this company is straightforward: Adobe has built a trusted brand and established itself as a leader in several software verticals. As more enterprises adopt digital-first strategies, Adobe should benefit from strong demand.</p>\n<p>With that in mind, management puts the company's market opportunity at $147 billion by 2023, leaving plenty of room for Adobe to grow its business. That's why this tech company looks like a smart buy.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cdffd4a7b56387c2ad8ab4d5b1a5e95\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"369\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Tesla</span></p>\n<h2>2. Tesla</h2>\n<p>The electric vehicle (EV) market is growing quickly. Last year, global EV sales surged 41% to 3.1 million units, representing 4.6% of all cars sold. Despite that furious pace of adoption, Tesla managed to boost production and maintain its industry-leading position, capturing 16% market share in 2020.</p>\n<p>At the same time, Tesla posted an industry-leading operating margin of 6.3% last year, showcasing the scalability of its manufacturing process. In fact, between 2017 and 2021, the company's average cost per vehicle dropped from $84,000 to $38,000 as it increased output in the U.S. and ramped production China.</p>\n<p>But this disruptor is just getting started. Tesla recently purchased the largest die casting machine in the world. And in early 2021, it started making the rear body of the Model Y as a single piece of metal, cutting labor costs by combining 70 different components into <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>. But here's the most impressive part: To accomplish that feat, Tesla invented and patented new aluminum alloys, since existing options made poor substrates for die casting.</p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, Tesla has delivered impressive financial results in recent years.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n <tr>\n <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2018 (TTM)</p></th>\n <th><p>Q2 2021 (TTM)</p></th>\n <th><p>CAGR</p></th>\n </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$13.7 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>$41.9 billion</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>45%</p></td>\n </tr>\n <tr>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>Gross profit margin</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>14.4%</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>22%</p></td>\n <td width=\"156\"><p>N/A</p></td>\n </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p>\n<p>During the Q2 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said Gigafactory Texas and Berlin will use single-piece casting for both the front and rear bodies of the Model Y. In other words, Tesla is pressing its advantage. And as these factories come online later in 2021, the company should reap the benefits of increased production capacity and manufacturing efficiency.</p>\n<p>That's why now looks like a good time to buy this growth stock.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 22:38 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ADBE":"Adobe","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155377091","content_text":"One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for companies that could benefit over the long term.\nFor instance, Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) is powering digital transformation, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is revolutionizing the automotive industry. More importantly, both should continue to benefit from these unstoppable trends in the years ahead.\nHere's what you should know.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. Adobe Systems\nA digital-first business model is no longer optional -- it's a necessity. Each year, more consumers shop online, connect through social media, and engage with mobile apps, and they expect a high-quality experience across every touchpoint. Fortunately, Adobe has the tools to make that happen.\nAdobe is best known for its digital media business, which comprises two platforms. The first is Adobe Creative Cloud, a software suite that includes industry-leading products like Photoshop for image editing, Illustrator for graphics, and InDesign for digital publishing.\nThe second is Adobe Document Cloud, a suite that enables clients to create, edit, share, and sign digital documents. Collectively, these tools drive efficiency by eliminating costly paper-based processes.\nBeyond digital media, Adobe also offers a third platform: Adobe Experience Cloud. This software helps clients with analytics, marketing, and commerce, making it possible to collect data, target content, and deliver engaging experiences across digital touchpoints. Notably, research company Gartner has recognized Adobe as a leader in this category.\nWith this impressive arsenal of products, the company has delivered strong financial results like clockwork in recent years.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2018 (TTM)\nQ2 2021 (TTM)\nCAGR\n\n\n\n\nRevenue\n$8.1 billion\n$14.4 billion\n21%\n\n\nFree cash flow\n$3.3 billion\n$6.6 billion\n26%\n\n\n\nData source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.\nLooking ahead, the bull case for this company is straightforward: Adobe has built a trusted brand and established itself as a leader in several software verticals. As more enterprises adopt digital-first strategies, Adobe should benefit from strong demand.\nWith that in mind, management puts the company's market opportunity at $147 billion by 2023, leaving plenty of room for Adobe to grow its business. That's why this tech company looks like a smart buy.\nImage source: Tesla\n2. Tesla\nThe electric vehicle (EV) market is growing quickly. Last year, global EV sales surged 41% to 3.1 million units, representing 4.6% of all cars sold. Despite that furious pace of adoption, Tesla managed to boost production and maintain its industry-leading position, capturing 16% market share in 2020.\nAt the same time, Tesla posted an industry-leading operating margin of 6.3% last year, showcasing the scalability of its manufacturing process. In fact, between 2017 and 2021, the company's average cost per vehicle dropped from $84,000 to $38,000 as it increased output in the U.S. and ramped production China.\nBut this disruptor is just getting started. Tesla recently purchased the largest die casting machine in the world. And in early 2021, it started making the rear body of the Model Y as a single piece of metal, cutting labor costs by combining 70 different components into one. But here's the most impressive part: To accomplish that feat, Tesla invented and patented new aluminum alloys, since existing options made poor substrates for die casting.\nNot surprisingly, Tesla has delivered impressive financial results in recent years.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2018 (TTM)\nQ2 2021 (TTM)\nCAGR\n\n\n\n\nRevenue\n$13.7 billion\n$41.9 billion\n45%\n\n\nGross profit margin\n14.4%\n22%\nN/A\n\n\n\nSource: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.\nDuring the Q2 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said Gigafactory Texas and Berlin will use single-piece casting for both the front and rear bodies of the Model Y. In other words, Tesla is pressing its advantage. And as these factories come online later in 2021, the company should reap the benefits of increased production capacity and manufacturing efficiency.\nThat's why now looks like a good time to buy this growth stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806597751,"gmtCreate":1627664652073,"gmtModify":1703494443895,"author":{"id":"3581596246517975","authorId":"3581596246517975","name":"niselle","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581596246517975","authorIdStr":"3581596246517975"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","listText":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","text":"The stock hasnt gained much after its stock split...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806597751","repostId":"1157771608","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157771608","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627653929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157771608?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock In 10 Years: What You Should Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157771608","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will n","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will not repeat over the next decade.</li>\n <li>The company offers strong quality, great management, and has an attractive growth outlook, but shares are expensive.</li>\n <li>In the long run, returns will most likely be solid, but it may be better to wait for a lower price before entering or expanding a position.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f0d217100f82ddae3cfb3e50178504\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1017\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Antonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is one of the best growth mega-caps from a fundamental perspective and when it comes to the company's business growth potential. The stock trades, however, at a pretty high valuation, compared to other semiconductor stocks and relative to other growth mega-caps. To some extent, this premium valuation is justified, but it seems logical to assume that total returns will, in the long run, be negatively impacted by multiple compression. Over the next decade, NVIDIA Corporation still has considerable upside potential, even though I assume that its valuation will compress significantly.</p>\n<p><b>Will NVIDIA Stock Continue To Rise?</b></p>\n<p>There are two answers to this question, I believe. In the short term, price action is driven by sentiment, news items, etc. to a large degree, so it is more or less impossible to forecast where the price will be a week, a month, or half a year from now. NVIDIA has a beta of 1.4, which means that, generally, it moves in the same direction as the broad market, but with more pronounced movements. So if the market rises by 10% over the next half-year, one may reasonably assume that NVIDIA will rise by 14% over the same time frame. Since short-term moves in the broad market are largely driven by things like Fed statements, sentiment, worries about the Delta variant, etc. there is a lot of uncertainty for where broad markets and NVIDIA will head over the near future. NVIDIA's current RSI (relative strength index) is 54, which indicates that shares are neither overbought nor oversold today. The current analyst price target, per YCharts, is $194, which is almost perfectly in line with the current share price. Prices could move up or down in the near term, the price target consensus and the RSI paint a mostly neutral picture for now. Shares could continue to climb, but this is far from certain, and I surely wouldn't speculate on significant gains in the near term.</p>\n<p>In the long run, share prices are largely driven by earnings growth and changes in a stock's valuation, thus sentiment or news items are less important when it comes to NVIDIA's share price a decade from now. It is, of course, not possible to forecast the share price exactly, but we can look at scenarios that paint a picture of where shares could be heading. As I am a long-term focused investor and not much of a trader, the question of where NVIDIA will be a decade from now is, I believe, the more important one compared to the question of where NVIDIA will be in September or December.</p>\n<p><b>Where Will NVIDIA Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p>\n<p>Let's start with the note that NVIDIA's performance over the last ten years, a 5,500% gain, will certainly not repeat over the next decade. This would make NVIDIA's market capitalization balloon to<i>$27 trillion</i>, which is absolutely unrealistic, I believe, even for a high-growth company like NVIDIA. Nevertheless, even if future share price gains are less exciting, NVIDIA could still be a very solid investment, as ten-year returns of 5,000%+ are not at all required to make a stock a solid choice.</p>\n<p>Today, NVIDIA trades at 49x this year's expected net profits, which is a rather high valuation, especially for a company with a market cap as large as NVIDIA's. Most other high-growth mega-caps, such as Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) trade at significantly lower valuations, with earnings multiples around 30. Tesla (TSLA) is even more expensive than NVIDIA, trading at more than 100x this year's net profits, but I believe that this is not a great example of where growth stocks should trade, as I believe that TSLA is significantly overvalued.</p>\n<p>Going back to NVIDIA, we can also look at how the company was valued in the past:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21096a0f152ce54df29d8bc2e5c8aae6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The 5-year to 10-year median earnings multiples are 29-48 for NVDA, thus it looks like shares are definitely trading on the expensive side today. It should be noted that the growth outlook a couple of years ago, when NVIDIA was significantly smaller, was better than it is today, mainly due to the law of large numbers, which states that maintaining high relative growth rates becomes harder as a company grows in size. The fact that shares are currently trading well above the longer-term median valuation is thus noteworthy, as one might expect that valuations<i>decline</i>as a company matures.</p>\n<p>Compared to other semi stocks, NVIDIA looks relatively expensive as well:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8062ce7784ae57f6f527806ea7c1661\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>NVIDIA trades at a premium to direct peers such as AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC), and its stock is also more expensive than that of other large-cap semis such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Broadcom (AVGO). An above-average valuation does make sense, thanks to NVIDIA's outstanding fundamentals and strong growth rates, but it seems highly doubtful whether the company will continue to trade at almost 50x net profits forever.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA addresses a range of growth markets, such as data centers, gaming equipment, and so on. These markets will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, but they do, of course, not grow by 80% a year forever, which was NVIDIA's top-line growth rate during the most recent quarter. It thus seems very likely that revenue growth will slow down considerably from the current level, even when we assume that NVIDIA will continue to take market share here and there, e.g. in data centers.</p>\n<p>Analysts do thus, not surprisingly, see a considerable slowdown in NVIDIA's business growth in the coming years, even though growth will remain highly attractive for sure:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0145bdde6aebd5b6b694c80e0addfa80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Revenue growth of almost 50% this year, and of 11%-16% over the following four years is still pretty attractive for sure, relative to how the average company and the economy are growing. It also seems possible that NVIDIA will beat analyst estimates, delivering somewhat higher growth, as the company has a history of delivering upside estimates -- nine out of the last ten quarterly releases beat estimates on both lines. Even if we assume that analyst estimates are too conservative, it seems relatively logical that they will at least be in the ballpark of where actual results will land -- a revenue growth rate of 80% for the remainder of 2021, or a revenue growth rate of 50% for 2022, is not realistic.</p>\n<p>When we assume that the current revenue estimates for 2025 are too low by ~10%, and that actual revenues will total $45 billion, and that revenues will grow by 10% a year between 2026 and 2031, we get to a 2031 top line of $80 billion. Right now, NVDA's net margin is 34% (most recent quarter), which is outstanding. Operating leverage should lift NVDA's operating margin in the coming years, but on the other hand, NVDA's current tax rate is pretty low at 3% during the most recent quarter. When we assume that tax rates will climb to 10%, this could offset tailwinds from operating margin expansion, thus it is far from guaranteed that NVDA's net margin will rise by a lot. If the net margin stands at 35% in 2031, NVDA would earn about $28 billion in net profits a decade from now. If the share count remains unchanged, that would equate to earnings per share of $11.10. If NVDA were to trade at the same 49x net profits it trades at today, that would lead to a share price of $540, which would equate to total returns of 180%. As mentioned earlier, I believe that multiple compression is likely, due to a range of reasons -- slowing growth, the current premium to the historic median, and the current premium over the broad market and NVDA's peers.</p>\n<p>When we do, thus, assume that the valuation compresses to around 30x net profits, which would be relatively in-line with the 10-year median earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $330 a decade from now. Over the next decade, this would pencil out to returns of a little over 70%, or about 5%-6% a year. NVDA wouldn't be a bad choice in this scenario, but not an outstanding pick, either. We can also look at a somewhat more optimistic scenario where NVDA grows its revenue by 15% a year between 2026 and 2031, in that case, with everything else held constant, NVDA would trade at $430 in 2031, which would allow for total returns of 8%-9% a year from the current price of $195.</p>\n<p>Overall, I thus believe that it is very likely that investors will see gains from the current level in the long run, but those gains will likely be far lower compared to what we have seen in recent years. High-single-digit annual returns seem like a realistic target range from the current, elevated, valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Is NVIDIA A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA has great fundamentals, a clean balance sheet, strong margins and returns on capital, excellent management, and is in a great position tech-wise. On top of that, NVDA operates in a growing industry that is integral to our way of life. Overall, those are some great reasons to invest in its stock, but there is one additional factor that investors should keep in mind. NVDA's valuation is well above the long-term median, well above the valuations of its peers, and it seems pretty likely that this valuation will eventually compress, as growth will inevitably decline from the current immense 80% year-over-year pace. I would thus say that NVDA is a good long-term investment for sure, but not at every price. At current prices, it seems like a solid long-term investment, but not like a spectacular one. Others that have different growth assumptions or that see a different target earnings multiple 5 or 10 years from now will potentially have a different opinion on that, however.</p>\n<p><b>Is NVIDIA Stock A Good Buy Right Now?</b></p>\n<p>NVIDIA undoubtedly has been a great buy for almost everyone that bought over the last decade, but past returns do not equate to future returns. It is almost guaranteed that returns in the coming years will be significantly lower than what we have seen over the last decade. I believe that returns, in the long run, will be solid, but I do not believe that the current return outlook makes NVDA a screaming buy at current prices. NVDA traded at less than $140 (split-adjusted) a couple of months ago, and at that price, I'd see shares as a way better investment. At $190+, shares are too expensive for me to buy right now, although they can be a solid hold for everyone that bought earlier for sure.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock In 10 Years: What You Should Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock In 10 Years: What You Should Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 22:05 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442717-nvidia-stock-in-10-years-what-you-should-consider><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will not repeat over the next decade.\nThe company offers strong quality, great management, and has an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442717-nvidia-stock-in-10-years-what-you-should-consider\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442717-nvidia-stock-in-10-years-what-you-should-consider","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157771608","content_text":"Summary\n\nNVIDIA Corporation has been an outstanding investment over the last decade, but that will not repeat over the next decade.\nThe company offers strong quality, great management, and has an attractive growth outlook, but shares are expensive.\nIn the long run, returns will most likely be solid, but it may be better to wait for a lower price before entering or expanding a position.\n\nAntonio Bordunovi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is one of the best growth mega-caps from a fundamental perspective and when it comes to the company's business growth potential. The stock trades, however, at a pretty high valuation, compared to other semiconductor stocks and relative to other growth mega-caps. To some extent, this premium valuation is justified, but it seems logical to assume that total returns will, in the long run, be negatively impacted by multiple compression. Over the next decade, NVIDIA Corporation still has considerable upside potential, even though I assume that its valuation will compress significantly.\nWill NVIDIA Stock Continue To Rise?\nThere are two answers to this question, I believe. In the short term, price action is driven by sentiment, news items, etc. to a large degree, so it is more or less impossible to forecast where the price will be a week, a month, or half a year from now. NVIDIA has a beta of 1.4, which means that, generally, it moves in the same direction as the broad market, but with more pronounced movements. So if the market rises by 10% over the next half-year, one may reasonably assume that NVIDIA will rise by 14% over the same time frame. Since short-term moves in the broad market are largely driven by things like Fed statements, sentiment, worries about the Delta variant, etc. there is a lot of uncertainty for where broad markets and NVIDIA will head over the near future. NVIDIA's current RSI (relative strength index) is 54, which indicates that shares are neither overbought nor oversold today. The current analyst price target, per YCharts, is $194, which is almost perfectly in line with the current share price. Prices could move up or down in the near term, the price target consensus and the RSI paint a mostly neutral picture for now. Shares could continue to climb, but this is far from certain, and I surely wouldn't speculate on significant gains in the near term.\nIn the long run, share prices are largely driven by earnings growth and changes in a stock's valuation, thus sentiment or news items are less important when it comes to NVIDIA's share price a decade from now. It is, of course, not possible to forecast the share price exactly, but we can look at scenarios that paint a picture of where shares could be heading. As I am a long-term focused investor and not much of a trader, the question of where NVIDIA will be a decade from now is, I believe, the more important one compared to the question of where NVIDIA will be in September or December.\nWhere Will NVIDIA Stock Be In 10 Years\nLet's start with the note that NVIDIA's performance over the last ten years, a 5,500% gain, will certainly not repeat over the next decade. This would make NVIDIA's market capitalization balloon to$27 trillion, which is absolutely unrealistic, I believe, even for a high-growth company like NVIDIA. Nevertheless, even if future share price gains are less exciting, NVIDIA could still be a very solid investment, as ten-year returns of 5,000%+ are not at all required to make a stock a solid choice.\nToday, NVIDIA trades at 49x this year's expected net profits, which is a rather high valuation, especially for a company with a market cap as large as NVIDIA's. Most other high-growth mega-caps, such as Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) trade at significantly lower valuations, with earnings multiples around 30. Tesla (TSLA) is even more expensive than NVIDIA, trading at more than 100x this year's net profits, but I believe that this is not a great example of where growth stocks should trade, as I believe that TSLA is significantly overvalued.\nGoing back to NVIDIA, we can also look at how the company was valued in the past:\nData by YCharts\nThe 5-year to 10-year median earnings multiples are 29-48 for NVDA, thus it looks like shares are definitely trading on the expensive side today. It should be noted that the growth outlook a couple of years ago, when NVIDIA was significantly smaller, was better than it is today, mainly due to the law of large numbers, which states that maintaining high relative growth rates becomes harder as a company grows in size. The fact that shares are currently trading well above the longer-term median valuation is thus noteworthy, as one might expect that valuationsdeclineas a company matures.\nCompared to other semi stocks, NVIDIA looks relatively expensive as well:\nData by YCharts\nNVIDIA trades at a premium to direct peers such as AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC), and its stock is also more expensive than that of other large-cap semis such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Broadcom (AVGO). An above-average valuation does make sense, thanks to NVIDIA's outstanding fundamentals and strong growth rates, but it seems highly doubtful whether the company will continue to trade at almost 50x net profits forever.\nNVIDIA addresses a range of growth markets, such as data centers, gaming equipment, and so on. These markets will continue to grow for the foreseeable future, but they do, of course, not grow by 80% a year forever, which was NVIDIA's top-line growth rate during the most recent quarter. It thus seems very likely that revenue growth will slow down considerably from the current level, even when we assume that NVIDIA will continue to take market share here and there, e.g. in data centers.\nAnalysts do thus, not surprisingly, see a considerable slowdown in NVIDIA's business growth in the coming years, even though growth will remain highly attractive for sure:\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nRevenue growth of almost 50% this year, and of 11%-16% over the following four years is still pretty attractive for sure, relative to how the average company and the economy are growing. It also seems possible that NVIDIA will beat analyst estimates, delivering somewhat higher growth, as the company has a history of delivering upside estimates -- nine out of the last ten quarterly releases beat estimates on both lines. Even if we assume that analyst estimates are too conservative, it seems relatively logical that they will at least be in the ballpark of where actual results will land -- a revenue growth rate of 80% for the remainder of 2021, or a revenue growth rate of 50% for 2022, is not realistic.\nWhen we assume that the current revenue estimates for 2025 are too low by ~10%, and that actual revenues will total $45 billion, and that revenues will grow by 10% a year between 2026 and 2031, we get to a 2031 top line of $80 billion. Right now, NVDA's net margin is 34% (most recent quarter), which is outstanding. Operating leverage should lift NVDA's operating margin in the coming years, but on the other hand, NVDA's current tax rate is pretty low at 3% during the most recent quarter. When we assume that tax rates will climb to 10%, this could offset tailwinds from operating margin expansion, thus it is far from guaranteed that NVDA's net margin will rise by a lot. If the net margin stands at 35% in 2031, NVDA would earn about $28 billion in net profits a decade from now. If the share count remains unchanged, that would equate to earnings per share of $11.10. If NVDA were to trade at the same 49x net profits it trades at today, that would lead to a share price of $540, which would equate to total returns of 180%. As mentioned earlier, I believe that multiple compression is likely, due to a range of reasons -- slowing growth, the current premium to the historic median, and the current premium over the broad market and NVDA's peers.\nWhen we do, thus, assume that the valuation compresses to around 30x net profits, which would be relatively in-line with the 10-year median earnings multiple, then shares would trade at $330 a decade from now. Over the next decade, this would pencil out to returns of a little over 70%, or about 5%-6% a year. NVDA wouldn't be a bad choice in this scenario, but not an outstanding pick, either. We can also look at a somewhat more optimistic scenario where NVDA grows its revenue by 15% a year between 2026 and 2031, in that case, with everything else held constant, NVDA would trade at $430 in 2031, which would allow for total returns of 8%-9% a year from the current price of $195.\nOverall, I thus believe that it is very likely that investors will see gains from the current level in the long run, but those gains will likely be far lower compared to what we have seen in recent years. High-single-digit annual returns seem like a realistic target range from the current, elevated, valuation.\nIs NVIDIA A Good Long-Term Investment?\nNVIDIA has great fundamentals, a clean balance sheet, strong margins and returns on capital, excellent management, and is in a great position tech-wise. On top of that, NVDA operates in a growing industry that is integral to our way of life. Overall, those are some great reasons to invest in its stock, but there is one additional factor that investors should keep in mind. NVDA's valuation is well above the long-term median, well above the valuations of its peers, and it seems pretty likely that this valuation will eventually compress, as growth will inevitably decline from the current immense 80% year-over-year pace. I would thus say that NVDA is a good long-term investment for sure, but not at every price. At current prices, it seems like a solid long-term investment, but not like a spectacular one. Others that have different growth assumptions or that see a different target earnings multiple 5 or 10 years from now will potentially have a different opinion on that, however.\nIs NVIDIA Stock A Good Buy Right Now?\nNVIDIA undoubtedly has been a great buy for almost everyone that bought over the last decade, but past returns do not equate to future returns. It is almost guaranteed that returns in the coming years will be significantly lower than what we have seen over the last decade. I believe that returns, in the long run, will be solid, but I do not believe that the current return outlook makes NVDA a screaming buy at current prices. NVDA traded at less than $140 (split-adjusted) a couple of months ago, and at that price, I'd see shares as a way better investment. At $190+, shares are too expensive for me to buy right now, although they can be a solid hold for everyone that bought earlier for sure.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
