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2021-06-15
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NIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All
Beabeasiang
2021-06-15
Tesla!!
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My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.Having said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electrici","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.</li>\n <li>The company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.</li>\n <li>NIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73b2f5c2c6359610a15264530773421\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"461\"><span>Eoneren/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis Summary</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc.,(NYSE:NIO)is a fast-growing Chinese EV company with some very unique characteristics. Despite its youth and relatively small size in terms of global EV sales, NIO looks like it could one day be one of the most relevant companies in the EV sector. NIO is much more than just an EV car manufacturer, as it is also one of the most innovative companies in the space. Revolutions in charging technology and proprietary software should help NIO establish a moat, a unique selling point and can potentially create new revenue sources.</p>\n<p><b>BaaS: Another Layer of Revenue</b></p>\n<p>I have already talked extensively about NIO’s core business in previous articles. Today, I’d like to start by focusing on the implications behind one NIO’s signature characteristic: Battery-as-a-Service. (BaaS)</p>\n<p>Granted, many articles have already covered this topic too. Normally though, these focus on BaaS vs regular charging, or how BaaS technology can make NIO cars more appealing. However, in this section, I am focusing on the implications BaaS can have on NIO’s revenue, as a completely separate business, which it could one day be.</p>\n<p>NIO’s BaaS offerings have come a very long way since the company first initiated this idea. In April, the company reached a deal with Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(NYSE:SHI)to create a vast network of battery swap stations. NIO aims to have over 5000 stations by 2024. Furthermore, the latest iteration of the BaaS charging system allows car-owners to swap the battery for a fully charged one in minutes and without even needing to exit their car. BaaS is the fastest way to achieve the level of convenience we have when refueling traditional gas cars, and it may perhaps be the only way.</p>\n<p>So, the question is; Can NIO monetize its BaaS, and if so how would this look? The short answer to this question is yes. Ford Motors, Inc(NYSE:F)has already entered a deal with NIO to make use of NIO’s charging infrastructure.</p>\n<p>Having said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electricity is much higher than what you would pay if you charged your car at home during the night. BaaS, however, works around this, since the replacement batteries could be charged anywhere. On top of that, what we do know is that NIO will stand to benefit a lot more from this line of business thanks to government subsidies. It has been openly stated by the CCP that China is moving away from consumer-focused subsidies, in favour of infrastructure based subsidies.</p>\n<p>It’s still early days, but if BaaS takes off, and other producers focus on this model, NIO could stand to gain a lot from this by being a source of infrastructure and technology. For example, NIO could play a key role in providing the necessary charging infrastructure for Europe, a market which it is just recently entering.</p>\n<p><b>NIO: Monetizing knowledge</b></p>\n<p>The other key area where NIO excels, and many may not realize it, is technology and knowledge. Let’s make this clear with some numbers.</p>\n<p>According to data from Tencent Tech, NIO has 2768 patents in China, 204 in Europe and 193 patents in the United States. 1208 of the patents held in China are “innovation patents”. This is a significant fact, because “innovation patents” as classified by the Chinese are the ones whose content can be considered “groundbreaking”. To put these numbers into perspective, NIO holds more patents than rivals like Li Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)and Xpeng Inc [XVEP].</p>\n<p>Diving deeper into these patents, we can see that most of these patents are related to the above-mentioned battery swap technology. Another hot topic of research today is autonomous driving. In this field, NIO has 47 patents, 64% of which are still pending. This is quite a small number if we compare it to Baidu, Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU), which boasts 632 patents. Lastly, I will note that I think one of the most successful areas where NIO is innovating is in terms of design and user interface/software. For example, the NIO ET7 features an `intelligent cockpit”, which is powered by NOMI, NIO’s artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>What I am trying to say is that perhaps what some see as NIO’s weakness, could be one of its biggest strengths. Many analysts seem to have a problem with the fact that NIO doesn’t make its cars, but this aspect of the car business is becoming less and less relevant. The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA) has been quoted as saying that by 2025, cars will be sold at cost price, and it will be software sales that will provide these manufacturers revenue.</p>\n<p>It seems like the traditional car is going the way of smartphones. Putting together the components is perhaps the least important of the value-adding activities here. What’s most relevant is the operating system and the value of the brand. NIO shines in both of these areas, and this is perhaps another way in which we could say NIO is quite similar to Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>I believe the above are two strong points that highlight that NIO has potential way beyond the production of cars. Having said this, it is very hard to quantify how these advancements in innovation will change NIO’s revenues and profitability in the future. What I propose here is a valuation where we value NIO at its most basic level, through revenues achieved from car sales. However, I will defend that the P/S multiple will remain much higher than that of its “peers” given the reasons stated above.</p>\n<p>Now, let’s start with revenues and sales. At its most core level, we can predict NIO’s revenues by looking at how many cars it will produce in the next few years, and we have a good idea of what this could be. Recently, NIO renewed its manufacturing agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group [JAC]. Supposedly, the company will be doubling its production capacity to around 240.000 units per year, at least until May 2024.</p>\n<p>Therefore, a very simple forecast of NIO’s revenues could be made based on this simple production fact. In the next 3 years, NIO will have the capacity to produce 720.000 new cars. Will they be able to sell them all? In 2020, NIO sold 43,728 vehicles. Forwards growth estimates have NIO doubling in revenue in the next year, which, assuming all revenues come from car sales and the price stays the same, would mean selling 87.456 units. If we pulled back growth to around 80% for 2022 and 50% for 2023, we would have corresponding sales of 157,420 and 236,132. This kind of growth is close to current estimates, and fits in quite nicely with NIO’s plans, since it seems like, by the end of this period, when the manufacturing agreement ends, NIO would be selling at near full capacity. The important point I am trying to make here is that given this recent deal, investors should not be worried about NIO’s production constraints. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like NIO will struggle from the demand side, especially as it plans to enter the European EV market.</p>\n<p>Now, the second point I will argue in this valuation, is that, given the changes in how the EV sector is shaping up, we should not apply industry multiples to a stock like NIO. In my previous article on the company, I did this and forecasted a price for 2030 of up to $400/share. However, a case can be made that NIO should command a premium in valuation. This is because the company is, quite literally, not making cars. Rather, it’s developing a brand, proprietary technology and also changing how we think about charging.</p>\n<p>Creating batteries for cars is a business in and of itself. A successful company in this sector is Contemporary Amperex Technology [CATL]. According to data from Market Screener,this company has an operating margin of 13%, grew revenues by 250% last year and trades at a P/E of 114 and a P/S of around 25.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, as car manufacturers begin to focus on delivering cars with an integrated operating system and software, we may see company’s like NIO trade at valuation multiples more in line with that of SaaS companies. Companies that sell software, like Adobe, Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE)or Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM)trade at P/S multiples of 15-20.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to sell 236,132 cars in 2023-2024 at an average price of $57,000, it would bring in $13,440 million in revenue. Assuming no dilution, this would imply roughly $10.25 of revenue/share. Given the fact that NIO could also begin to monetize its BaaS offerings, and that the company could even license its software and technology to other players, I feel like today’s P/S of 17 should be maintained, if not expanded. Growth may slow down, but we have to put a value on the assets NIO has in the form of patents and technology.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, my price target for NIO would be $174/share by the end of 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Having said this, there are some potential risks that the company faces in today’s environment. Firstly, and even though I see this mostly as a strength, not having its own manufacturing facilities can be seen as a disadvantage. If push comes to shove, JAC could refuse to honour their manufacturing contract, though I am sure this would be expensive.</p>\n<p>On another note, it is still not clear how widely adopted BaaS technology will be. Traditional charging spots are getting more advanced and, thanks to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, these charging stations could soon provide much more competitive charging rates. Clearly, NIO will have to partner up with other manufacturers to make BaaS a worldwide reality.</p>\n<p>Lastly, it is worth mentioning that, despite the high growth and improving profitability, it is very much on the cards to see further shareholder dilution, something which the valuation above did not account for.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO’s success over the last few years will ultimately be what makes the company successful in the future. NIO has found a way to innovate left, right and centre. It has changed the concept of charging through BaaS. It has also executed this innovation by building battery swap stations that are incredibly fast. It has innovated in terms of software and style, and I do not doubt that the company will continue to do so in the future. Ultimately, NIO is much more than an EV manufacturer and should be valued as such.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 09:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.\nThe company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.\nNIO commands high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140305126","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.\nThe company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.\nNIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.\n\nEoneren/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis Summary\nNIO Inc.,(NYSE:NIO)is a fast-growing Chinese EV company with some very unique characteristics. Despite its youth and relatively small size in terms of global EV sales, NIO looks like it could one day be one of the most relevant companies in the EV sector. NIO is much more than just an EV car manufacturer, as it is also one of the most innovative companies in the space. Revolutions in charging technology and proprietary software should help NIO establish a moat, a unique selling point and can potentially create new revenue sources.\nBaaS: Another Layer of Revenue\nI have already talked extensively about NIO’s core business in previous articles. Today, I’d like to start by focusing on the implications behind one NIO’s signature characteristic: Battery-as-a-Service. (BaaS)\nGranted, many articles have already covered this topic too. Normally though, these focus on BaaS vs regular charging, or how BaaS technology can make NIO cars more appealing. However, in this section, I am focusing on the implications BaaS can have on NIO’s revenue, as a completely separate business, which it could one day be.\nNIO’s BaaS offerings have come a very long way since the company first initiated this idea. In April, the company reached a deal with Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(NYSE:SHI)to create a vast network of battery swap stations. NIO aims to have over 5000 stations by 2024. Furthermore, the latest iteration of the BaaS charging system allows car-owners to swap the battery for a fully charged one in minutes and without even needing to exit their car. BaaS is the fastest way to achieve the level of convenience we have when refueling traditional gas cars, and it may perhaps be the only way.\nSo, the question is; Can NIO monetize its BaaS, and if so how would this look? The short answer to this question is yes. Ford Motors, Inc(NYSE:F)has already entered a deal with NIO to make use of NIO’s charging infrastructure.\nHaving said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electricity is much higher than what you would pay if you charged your car at home during the night. BaaS, however, works around this, since the replacement batteries could be charged anywhere. On top of that, what we do know is that NIO will stand to benefit a lot more from this line of business thanks to government subsidies. It has been openly stated by the CCP that China is moving away from consumer-focused subsidies, in favour of infrastructure based subsidies.\nIt’s still early days, but if BaaS takes off, and other producers focus on this model, NIO could stand to gain a lot from this by being a source of infrastructure and technology. For example, NIO could play a key role in providing the necessary charging infrastructure for Europe, a market which it is just recently entering.\nNIO: Monetizing knowledge\nThe other key area where NIO excels, and many may not realize it, is technology and knowledge. Let’s make this clear with some numbers.\nAccording to data from Tencent Tech, NIO has 2768 patents in China, 204 in Europe and 193 patents in the United States. 1208 of the patents held in China are “innovation patents”. This is a significant fact, because “innovation patents” as classified by the Chinese are the ones whose content can be considered “groundbreaking”. To put these numbers into perspective, NIO holds more patents than rivals like Li Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)and Xpeng Inc [XVEP].\nDiving deeper into these patents, we can see that most of these patents are related to the above-mentioned battery swap technology. Another hot topic of research today is autonomous driving. In this field, NIO has 47 patents, 64% of which are still pending. This is quite a small number if we compare it to Baidu, Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU), which boasts 632 patents. Lastly, I will note that I think one of the most successful areas where NIO is innovating is in terms of design and user interface/software. For example, the NIO ET7 features an `intelligent cockpit”, which is powered by NOMI, NIO’s artificial intelligence.\nWhat I am trying to say is that perhaps what some see as NIO’s weakness, could be one of its biggest strengths. Many analysts seem to have a problem with the fact that NIO doesn’t make its cars, but this aspect of the car business is becoming less and less relevant. The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA) has been quoted as saying that by 2025, cars will be sold at cost price, and it will be software sales that will provide these manufacturers revenue.\nIt seems like the traditional car is going the way of smartphones. Putting together the components is perhaps the least important of the value-adding activities here. What’s most relevant is the operating system and the value of the brand. NIO shines in both of these areas, and this is perhaps another way in which we could say NIO is quite similar to Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).\nValuation\nI believe the above are two strong points that highlight that NIO has potential way beyond the production of cars. Having said this, it is very hard to quantify how these advancements in innovation will change NIO’s revenues and profitability in the future. What I propose here is a valuation where we value NIO at its most basic level, through revenues achieved from car sales. However, I will defend that the P/S multiple will remain much higher than that of its “peers” given the reasons stated above.\nNow, let’s start with revenues and sales. At its most core level, we can predict NIO’s revenues by looking at how many cars it will produce in the next few years, and we have a good idea of what this could be. Recently, NIO renewed its manufacturing agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group [JAC]. Supposedly, the company will be doubling its production capacity to around 240.000 units per year, at least until May 2024.\nTherefore, a very simple forecast of NIO’s revenues could be made based on this simple production fact. In the next 3 years, NIO will have the capacity to produce 720.000 new cars. Will they be able to sell them all? In 2020, NIO sold 43,728 vehicles. Forwards growth estimates have NIO doubling in revenue in the next year, which, assuming all revenues come from car sales and the price stays the same, would mean selling 87.456 units. If we pulled back growth to around 80% for 2022 and 50% for 2023, we would have corresponding sales of 157,420 and 236,132. This kind of growth is close to current estimates, and fits in quite nicely with NIO’s plans, since it seems like, by the end of this period, when the manufacturing agreement ends, NIO would be selling at near full capacity. The important point I am trying to make here is that given this recent deal, investors should not be worried about NIO’s production constraints. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like NIO will struggle from the demand side, especially as it plans to enter the European EV market.\nNow, the second point I will argue in this valuation, is that, given the changes in how the EV sector is shaping up, we should not apply industry multiples to a stock like NIO. In my previous article on the company, I did this and forecasted a price for 2030 of up to $400/share. However, a case can be made that NIO should command a premium in valuation. This is because the company is, quite literally, not making cars. Rather, it’s developing a brand, proprietary technology and also changing how we think about charging.\nCreating batteries for cars is a business in and of itself. A successful company in this sector is Contemporary Amperex Technology [CATL]. According to data from Market Screener,this company has an operating margin of 13%, grew revenues by 250% last year and trades at a P/E of 114 and a P/S of around 25.\nOn the other hand, as car manufacturers begin to focus on delivering cars with an integrated operating system and software, we may see company’s like NIO trade at valuation multiples more in line with that of SaaS companies. Companies that sell software, like Adobe, Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE)or Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM)trade at P/S multiples of 15-20.\nIf NIO were to sell 236,132 cars in 2023-2024 at an average price of $57,000, it would bring in $13,440 million in revenue. Assuming no dilution, this would imply roughly $10.25 of revenue/share. Given the fact that NIO could also begin to monetize its BaaS offerings, and that the company could even license its software and technology to other players, I feel like today’s P/S of 17 should be maintained, if not expanded. Growth may slow down, but we have to put a value on the assets NIO has in the form of patents and technology.\nIn conclusion, my price target for NIO would be $174/share by the end of 2023.\nRisks\nHaving said this, there are some potential risks that the company faces in today’s environment. Firstly, and even though I see this mostly as a strength, not having its own manufacturing facilities can be seen as a disadvantage. If push comes to shove, JAC could refuse to honour their manufacturing contract, though I am sure this would be expensive.\nOn another note, it is still not clear how widely adopted BaaS technology will be. Traditional charging spots are getting more advanced and, thanks to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, these charging stations could soon provide much more competitive charging rates. Clearly, NIO will have to partner up with other manufacturers to make BaaS a worldwide reality.\nLastly, it is worth mentioning that, despite the high growth and improving profitability, it is very much on the cards to see further shareholder dilution, something which the valuation above did not account for.\nTakeaway\nNIO’s success over the last few years will ultimately be what makes the company successful in the future. NIO has found a way to innovate left, right and centre. It has changed the concept of charging through BaaS. It has also executed this innovation by building battery swap stations that are incredibly fast. It has innovated in terms of software and style, and I do not doubt that the company will continue to do so in the future. Ultimately, NIO is much more than an EV manufacturer and should be valued as such.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187088629,"gmtCreate":1623730491261,"gmtModify":1704209811141,"author":{"id":"3581630037532294","authorId":"3581630037532294","name":"Beabeasiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b10d7881bc9b47ae4f3b58ce6b91ee","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581630037532294","authorIdStr":"3581630037532294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla!!","listText":"Tesla!!","text":"Tesla!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187088629","repostId":"1131396369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":187060620,"gmtCreate":1623730788860,"gmtModify":1704209818749,"author":{"id":"3581630037532294","authorId":"3581630037532294","name":"Beabeasiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b10d7881bc9b47ae4f3b58ce6b91ee","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581630037532294","authorIdStr":"3581630037532294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187060620","repostId":"1140305126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140305126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623722258,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140305126?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140305126","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.The company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.NIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.Having said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electrici","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.</li>\n <li>The company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.</li>\n <li>NIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73b2f5c2c6359610a15264530773421\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"461\"><span>Eoneren/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis Summary</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc.,(NYSE:NIO)is a fast-growing Chinese EV company with some very unique characteristics. Despite its youth and relatively small size in terms of global EV sales, NIO looks like it could one day be one of the most relevant companies in the EV sector. NIO is much more than just an EV car manufacturer, as it is also one of the most innovative companies in the space. Revolutions in charging technology and proprietary software should help NIO establish a moat, a unique selling point and can potentially create new revenue sources.</p>\n<p><b>BaaS: Another Layer of Revenue</b></p>\n<p>I have already talked extensively about NIO’s core business in previous articles. Today, I’d like to start by focusing on the implications behind one NIO’s signature characteristic: Battery-as-a-Service. (BaaS)</p>\n<p>Granted, many articles have already covered this topic too. Normally though, these focus on BaaS vs regular charging, or how BaaS technology can make NIO cars more appealing. However, in this section, I am focusing on the implications BaaS can have on NIO’s revenue, as a completely separate business, which it could one day be.</p>\n<p>NIO’s BaaS offerings have come a very long way since the company first initiated this idea. In April, the company reached a deal with Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(NYSE:SHI)to create a vast network of battery swap stations. NIO aims to have over 5000 stations by 2024. Furthermore, the latest iteration of the BaaS charging system allows car-owners to swap the battery for a fully charged one in minutes and without even needing to exit their car. BaaS is the fastest way to achieve the level of convenience we have when refueling traditional gas cars, and it may perhaps be the only way.</p>\n<p>So, the question is; Can NIO monetize its BaaS, and if so how would this look? The short answer to this question is yes. Ford Motors, Inc(NYSE:F)has already entered a deal with NIO to make use of NIO’s charging infrastructure.</p>\n<p>Having said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electricity is much higher than what you would pay if you charged your car at home during the night. BaaS, however, works around this, since the replacement batteries could be charged anywhere. On top of that, what we do know is that NIO will stand to benefit a lot more from this line of business thanks to government subsidies. It has been openly stated by the CCP that China is moving away from consumer-focused subsidies, in favour of infrastructure based subsidies.</p>\n<p>It’s still early days, but if BaaS takes off, and other producers focus on this model, NIO could stand to gain a lot from this by being a source of infrastructure and technology. For example, NIO could play a key role in providing the necessary charging infrastructure for Europe, a market which it is just recently entering.</p>\n<p><b>NIO: Monetizing knowledge</b></p>\n<p>The other key area where NIO excels, and many may not realize it, is technology and knowledge. Let’s make this clear with some numbers.</p>\n<p>According to data from Tencent Tech, NIO has 2768 patents in China, 204 in Europe and 193 patents in the United States. 1208 of the patents held in China are “innovation patents”. This is a significant fact, because “innovation patents” as classified by the Chinese are the ones whose content can be considered “groundbreaking”. To put these numbers into perspective, NIO holds more patents than rivals like Li Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)and Xpeng Inc [XVEP].</p>\n<p>Diving deeper into these patents, we can see that most of these patents are related to the above-mentioned battery swap technology. Another hot topic of research today is autonomous driving. In this field, NIO has 47 patents, 64% of which are still pending. This is quite a small number if we compare it to Baidu, Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU), which boasts 632 patents. Lastly, I will note that I think one of the most successful areas where NIO is innovating is in terms of design and user interface/software. For example, the NIO ET7 features an `intelligent cockpit”, which is powered by NOMI, NIO’s artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>What I am trying to say is that perhaps what some see as NIO’s weakness, could be one of its biggest strengths. Many analysts seem to have a problem with the fact that NIO doesn’t make its cars, but this aspect of the car business is becoming less and less relevant. The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA) has been quoted as saying that by 2025, cars will be sold at cost price, and it will be software sales that will provide these manufacturers revenue.</p>\n<p>It seems like the traditional car is going the way of smartphones. Putting together the components is perhaps the least important of the value-adding activities here. What’s most relevant is the operating system and the value of the brand. NIO shines in both of these areas, and this is perhaps another way in which we could say NIO is quite similar to Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>I believe the above are two strong points that highlight that NIO has potential way beyond the production of cars. Having said this, it is very hard to quantify how these advancements in innovation will change NIO’s revenues and profitability in the future. What I propose here is a valuation where we value NIO at its most basic level, through revenues achieved from car sales. However, I will defend that the P/S multiple will remain much higher than that of its “peers” given the reasons stated above.</p>\n<p>Now, let’s start with revenues and sales. At its most core level, we can predict NIO’s revenues by looking at how many cars it will produce in the next few years, and we have a good idea of what this could be. Recently, NIO renewed its manufacturing agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group [JAC]. Supposedly, the company will be doubling its production capacity to around 240.000 units per year, at least until May 2024.</p>\n<p>Therefore, a very simple forecast of NIO’s revenues could be made based on this simple production fact. In the next 3 years, NIO will have the capacity to produce 720.000 new cars. Will they be able to sell them all? In 2020, NIO sold 43,728 vehicles. Forwards growth estimates have NIO doubling in revenue in the next year, which, assuming all revenues come from car sales and the price stays the same, would mean selling 87.456 units. If we pulled back growth to around 80% for 2022 and 50% for 2023, we would have corresponding sales of 157,420 and 236,132. This kind of growth is close to current estimates, and fits in quite nicely with NIO’s plans, since it seems like, by the end of this period, when the manufacturing agreement ends, NIO would be selling at near full capacity. The important point I am trying to make here is that given this recent deal, investors should not be worried about NIO’s production constraints. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like NIO will struggle from the demand side, especially as it plans to enter the European EV market.</p>\n<p>Now, the second point I will argue in this valuation, is that, given the changes in how the EV sector is shaping up, we should not apply industry multiples to a stock like NIO. In my previous article on the company, I did this and forecasted a price for 2030 of up to $400/share. However, a case can be made that NIO should command a premium in valuation. This is because the company is, quite literally, not making cars. Rather, it’s developing a brand, proprietary technology and also changing how we think about charging.</p>\n<p>Creating batteries for cars is a business in and of itself. A successful company in this sector is Contemporary Amperex Technology [CATL]. According to data from Market Screener,this company has an operating margin of 13%, grew revenues by 250% last year and trades at a P/E of 114 and a P/S of around 25.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, as car manufacturers begin to focus on delivering cars with an integrated operating system and software, we may see company’s like NIO trade at valuation multiples more in line with that of SaaS companies. Companies that sell software, like Adobe, Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE)or Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM)trade at P/S multiples of 15-20.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to sell 236,132 cars in 2023-2024 at an average price of $57,000, it would bring in $13,440 million in revenue. Assuming no dilution, this would imply roughly $10.25 of revenue/share. Given the fact that NIO could also begin to monetize its BaaS offerings, and that the company could even license its software and technology to other players, I feel like today’s P/S of 17 should be maintained, if not expanded. Growth may slow down, but we have to put a value on the assets NIO has in the form of patents and technology.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, my price target for NIO would be $174/share by the end of 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Having said this, there are some potential risks that the company faces in today’s environment. Firstly, and even though I see this mostly as a strength, not having its own manufacturing facilities can be seen as a disadvantage. If push comes to shove, JAC could refuse to honour their manufacturing contract, though I am sure this would be expensive.</p>\n<p>On another note, it is still not clear how widely adopted BaaS technology will be. Traditional charging spots are getting more advanced and, thanks to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, these charging stations could soon provide much more competitive charging rates. Clearly, NIO will have to partner up with other manufacturers to make BaaS a worldwide reality.</p>\n<p>Lastly, it is worth mentioning that, despite the high growth and improving profitability, it is very much on the cards to see further shareholder dilution, something which the valuation above did not account for.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO’s success over the last few years will ultimately be what makes the company successful in the future. NIO has found a way to innovate left, right and centre. It has changed the concept of charging through BaaS. It has also executed this innovation by building battery swap stations that are incredibly fast. It has innovated in terms of software and style, and I do not doubt that the company will continue to do so in the future. Ultimately, NIO is much more than an EV manufacturer and should be valued as such.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 09:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.\nThe company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.\nNIO commands high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140305126","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.\nThe company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.\nNIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.\n\nEoneren/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis Summary\nNIO Inc.,(NYSE:NIO)is a fast-growing Chinese EV company with some very unique characteristics. Despite its youth and relatively small size in terms of global EV sales, NIO looks like it could one day be one of the most relevant companies in the EV sector. NIO is much more than just an EV car manufacturer, as it is also one of the most innovative companies in the space. Revolutions in charging technology and proprietary software should help NIO establish a moat, a unique selling point and can potentially create new revenue sources.\nBaaS: Another Layer of Revenue\nI have already talked extensively about NIO’s core business in previous articles. Today, I’d like to start by focusing on the implications behind one NIO’s signature characteristic: Battery-as-a-Service. (BaaS)\nGranted, many articles have already covered this topic too. Normally though, these focus on BaaS vs regular charging, or how BaaS technology can make NIO cars more appealing. However, in this section, I am focusing on the implications BaaS can have on NIO’s revenue, as a completely separate business, which it could one day be.\nNIO’s BaaS offerings have come a very long way since the company first initiated this idea. In April, the company reached a deal with Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(NYSE:SHI)to create a vast network of battery swap stations. NIO aims to have over 5000 stations by 2024. Furthermore, the latest iteration of the BaaS charging system allows car-owners to swap the battery for a fully charged one in minutes and without even needing to exit their car. BaaS is the fastest way to achieve the level of convenience we have when refueling traditional gas cars, and it may perhaps be the only way.\nSo, the question is; Can NIO monetize its BaaS, and if so how would this look? The short answer to this question is yes. Ford Motors, Inc(NYSE:F)has already entered a deal with NIO to make use of NIO’s charging infrastructure.\nHaving said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electricity is much higher than what you would pay if you charged your car at home during the night. BaaS, however, works around this, since the replacement batteries could be charged anywhere. On top of that, what we do know is that NIO will stand to benefit a lot more from this line of business thanks to government subsidies. It has been openly stated by the CCP that China is moving away from consumer-focused subsidies, in favour of infrastructure based subsidies.\nIt’s still early days, but if BaaS takes off, and other producers focus on this model, NIO could stand to gain a lot from this by being a source of infrastructure and technology. For example, NIO could play a key role in providing the necessary charging infrastructure for Europe, a market which it is just recently entering.\nNIO: Monetizing knowledge\nThe other key area where NIO excels, and many may not realize it, is technology and knowledge. Let’s make this clear with some numbers.\nAccording to data from Tencent Tech, NIO has 2768 patents in China, 204 in Europe and 193 patents in the United States. 1208 of the patents held in China are “innovation patents”. This is a significant fact, because “innovation patents” as classified by the Chinese are the ones whose content can be considered “groundbreaking”. To put these numbers into perspective, NIO holds more patents than rivals like Li Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)and Xpeng Inc [XVEP].\nDiving deeper into these patents, we can see that most of these patents are related to the above-mentioned battery swap technology. Another hot topic of research today is autonomous driving. In this field, NIO has 47 patents, 64% of which are still pending. This is quite a small number if we compare it to Baidu, Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU), which boasts 632 patents. Lastly, I will note that I think one of the most successful areas where NIO is innovating is in terms of design and user interface/software. For example, the NIO ET7 features an `intelligent cockpit”, which is powered by NOMI, NIO’s artificial intelligence.\nWhat I am trying to say is that perhaps what some see as NIO’s weakness, could be one of its biggest strengths. Many analysts seem to have a problem with the fact that NIO doesn’t make its cars, but this aspect of the car business is becoming less and less relevant. The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA) has been quoted as saying that by 2025, cars will be sold at cost price, and it will be software sales that will provide these manufacturers revenue.\nIt seems like the traditional car is going the way of smartphones. Putting together the components is perhaps the least important of the value-adding activities here. What’s most relevant is the operating system and the value of the brand. NIO shines in both of these areas, and this is perhaps another way in which we could say NIO is quite similar to Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).\nValuation\nI believe the above are two strong points that highlight that NIO has potential way beyond the production of cars. Having said this, it is very hard to quantify how these advancements in innovation will change NIO’s revenues and profitability in the future. What I propose here is a valuation where we value NIO at its most basic level, through revenues achieved from car sales. However, I will defend that the P/S multiple will remain much higher than that of its “peers” given the reasons stated above.\nNow, let’s start with revenues and sales. At its most core level, we can predict NIO’s revenues by looking at how many cars it will produce in the next few years, and we have a good idea of what this could be. Recently, NIO renewed its manufacturing agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group [JAC]. Supposedly, the company will be doubling its production capacity to around 240.000 units per year, at least until May 2024.\nTherefore, a very simple forecast of NIO’s revenues could be made based on this simple production fact. In the next 3 years, NIO will have the capacity to produce 720.000 new cars. Will they be able to sell them all? In 2020, NIO sold 43,728 vehicles. Forwards growth estimates have NIO doubling in revenue in the next year, which, assuming all revenues come from car sales and the price stays the same, would mean selling 87.456 units. If we pulled back growth to around 80% for 2022 and 50% for 2023, we would have corresponding sales of 157,420 and 236,132. This kind of growth is close to current estimates, and fits in quite nicely with NIO’s plans, since it seems like, by the end of this period, when the manufacturing agreement ends, NIO would be selling at near full capacity. The important point I am trying to make here is that given this recent deal, investors should not be worried about NIO’s production constraints. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like NIO will struggle from the demand side, especially as it plans to enter the European EV market.\nNow, the second point I will argue in this valuation, is that, given the changes in how the EV sector is shaping up, we should not apply industry multiples to a stock like NIO. In my previous article on the company, I did this and forecasted a price for 2030 of up to $400/share. However, a case can be made that NIO should command a premium in valuation. This is because the company is, quite literally, not making cars. Rather, it’s developing a brand, proprietary technology and also changing how we think about charging.\nCreating batteries for cars is a business in and of itself. A successful company in this sector is Contemporary Amperex Technology [CATL]. According to data from Market Screener,this company has an operating margin of 13%, grew revenues by 250% last year and trades at a P/E of 114 and a P/S of around 25.\nOn the other hand, as car manufacturers begin to focus on delivering cars with an integrated operating system and software, we may see company’s like NIO trade at valuation multiples more in line with that of SaaS companies. Companies that sell software, like Adobe, Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE)or Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM)trade at P/S multiples of 15-20.\nIf NIO were to sell 236,132 cars in 2023-2024 at an average price of $57,000, it would bring in $13,440 million in revenue. Assuming no dilution, this would imply roughly $10.25 of revenue/share. Given the fact that NIO could also begin to monetize its BaaS offerings, and that the company could even license its software and technology to other players, I feel like today’s P/S of 17 should be maintained, if not expanded. Growth may slow down, but we have to put a value on the assets NIO has in the form of patents and technology.\nIn conclusion, my price target for NIO would be $174/share by the end of 2023.\nRisks\nHaving said this, there are some potential risks that the company faces in today’s environment. Firstly, and even though I see this mostly as a strength, not having its own manufacturing facilities can be seen as a disadvantage. If push comes to shove, JAC could refuse to honour their manufacturing contract, though I am sure this would be expensive.\nOn another note, it is still not clear how widely adopted BaaS technology will be. Traditional charging spots are getting more advanced and, thanks to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, these charging stations could soon provide much more competitive charging rates. Clearly, NIO will have to partner up with other manufacturers to make BaaS a worldwide reality.\nLastly, it is worth mentioning that, despite the high growth and improving profitability, it is very much on the cards to see further shareholder dilution, something which the valuation above did not account for.\nTakeaway\nNIO’s success over the last few years will ultimately be what makes the company successful in the future. NIO has found a way to innovate left, right and centre. It has changed the concept of charging through BaaS. It has also executed this innovation by building battery swap stations that are incredibly fast. It has innovated in terms of software and style, and I do not doubt that the company will continue to do so in the future. Ultimately, NIO is much more than an EV manufacturer and should be valued as such.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187088629,"gmtCreate":1623730491261,"gmtModify":1704209811141,"author":{"id":"3581630037532294","authorId":"3581630037532294","name":"Beabeasiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4b10d7881bc9b47ae4f3b58ce6b91ee","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581630037532294","authorIdStr":"3581630037532294"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tesla!!","listText":"Tesla!!","text":"Tesla!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187088629","repostId":"1131396369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
