pekss
pekssLV8 将军虎
No personal profile
566Follow
891Followers
11Topic
0Badge
avatarpekss
13:59

Head I Win, Tail I Don’t Lose

The Fed is in a dilemma, having been stuck between a rock and a hard place whether to continue hiking interest rate to rein in a sticky inflation that has proven to be stubborn, or take a pause in view of the recent bank runs and failures. Before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the market has largely been pricing in a 50 basis points hike when the FOMC concludes its monetary policy review today. Now the market is expecting a lift by not more than 25 basis, so as not to inflict more strain on the US and even global banking system and avoid contagious effects. Whichever is the outcome, I plan to stay invested in our local banking trio $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$ 
Head I Win, Tail I Don’t Lose
avatarpekss
03-10

Bank in on Higher Rates

The Fed is scheduled to reconvene 2 weeks later on 21-22 March to decide on the next monetary policy and the odds have recently risen that the Fed may announce an interest hike of 50 basis points rather than the previously widely expected 25 basis points, after recent hawkish stance by the Fed chairman in his semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress dented hopes by Wall Street on a monetary pivot. With renewed hawkishness on interest hikes to tame the stubbornly high inflation sticking longer than expected, the market is increasingly pricing in a recession. While banks stand to gain from higher interest rates, extreme hikes will eventually raise their costs of funding as they compete for deposits, while businesses rein in their investments during economic downturn and banks' provi
Bank in on Higher Rates
avatarpekss
03-09

Light at the End of the Tunnel

Hurray, $Sea Ltd(SE)$ just posted its first ever quarterly profit, as drastic cost-cutting undertaken by the gaming and e-commerce company to cope with the post-pandemic slowdown started to bear fruits. The company had expanded aggressively at the onset of the pandemic as it invested heavily to fend off competition and increase market share, often at the expense of profitability. While it had once been crowned the listed company with highest market capitalization on SGX, overtaking even the largest bank DBS in Southeast Asia, it has since fallen from grace as its share price took beatings as borders reopen and economies pivot to the new normal. Amidst calls from Wall Street to focus on profitability, SEA has exited fro
Light at the End of the Tunnel
avatarpekss
02-04
I plan to borrow and read the following list of books on Jave programming: 1. Head First Java by Kathy Sierra and Bert Bates, 2. Java: A Beginner’s Guide by Herbert Schildt, and 3. Core Java Volume 1 and Core Java Volume 2 by Cay S. Horstmann This is because one of my New Year resolutions for this year has been to pick up Java programming. I’ve always been interested to learn programming, so as to be able develop my own mobile apps. I reckon that Java is among the common programming languages that programmers use to write codes for mobile apps. Rather than spending money to enrol on classes, I prefer to self-teach myself by reading and practising at my own pace. The aforementioned books were recommended by Java programmers when I surfed the internet for relevant information. Plea
avatarpekss
01-18

Bull markets are born on pessimism

You may have heard of the phrase “a dollar saved is a dollar earned.” It encourages one to save. Hence, one may argue missing a rally cannot be worse than getting caught in a downturn. I do not mind holding fundamentally intact stocks in a downturn, and in fact I view a downturn as buying opportunity for strong companies. “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria,” John Templeton, one of the world’s most successful mutual-fund managers, had said. “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” Buying at the time of maximum pessimism is exactly what I plan to do during a downturn. Stock market is the only place on earth where people rushes for the exit during
Bull markets are born on pessimism
avatarpekss
01-17

Hunting Divergences to Look for Reversals

My favorite technical indicator is the bullish / bearish divergence, which I would recommend to identify entry and exit signals to complement fundamental analysis. I'm a value investor who hunts for oversold stocks and avoids overbought ones. After performing due diligence and pinning down a specific stock whose fundamentals are strong despite being oversold, I would look out for bullish divergence as a buy signal in order to time my entry, rather than rush into accumulating the shares right away, as markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent, in the wise words of the famed economist John Maynard Keynes. A divergence occurs when the stock price moves in opposite direction to a momentum indicator, such as the relative strength index RSI, which is a technical indicator
Hunting Divergences to Look for Reversals
avatarpekss
01-09

My 2022 Recap: Did Nothing!?

I was expecting a decline in my overall portfolio value (cash and cash equivalents excluding fixed assets) when I was tabulating the constituents of my investments using cash, CPF and SRS funds on equities, unit trusts and fixed income securities. As I have to extract information from various sources, I would only undertake the compilation at the beginning of every year to review my performance in the previous year. Lo and behold! I’m pleasantly astonished that my portfolio value actually increased from a year ago when I had expected a reduction. I re-checked my Excel spreadsheet just to ensure that I had not summed erroneously. Nope, I had not mistaken a subtraction for an addition sign. Even though my portfolio had grown by merely a single digit percentage, I’m still glad that it has pr
My 2022 Recap: Did Nothing!?
avatarpekss
01-09

Has the market gotten ahead of the Fed?

The stock market is always forward-looking and has been pricing in an increasing odd of an impending recession next year, as the Fed presses ahead with rate hikes to rein in a stubbornly high inflation. Hence, every time a Fed official speaks or new Fed meeting minutes is released, the market will judge whether its earlier expectations have gotten ahead of themselves and will attempt to re-calibrate its expectations based on the latest news and data. The Fed has largely been behind the curve last year, having previously misjudged the rising inflation as transitionary, as it mistook the surging inflation for temporary price increases that would subside when global supply chain disruptions from widespread lockdowns returned to normal when the pandemic eases. That not only did not materialise
Has the market gotten ahead of the Fed?
avatarpekss
01-09

Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria,” John Templeton, one of the world’s most successful mutual-fund managers, had said. “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” Buying at the time of maximum pessimism is exactly what I plan to do if and when the stock market crashes. Stock market is the only place on earth where people rushes for the exit during a sale. Such are the times when fundamentals do not matter much, as a falling tide sinks all boats. Nevertheless, such trying times also offer opportunities for cherry-picking among stocks of fundamentally strong companies on sale at bargain prices. While stock prices may dive further after I buy, I’ll be in
Bull Markets are Born on Pessimism
avatarpekss
2022-12-29

How I would use stock option during earnings season?

During an earnings season, if I expect the earnings of a stock to disappoint, a way to benefit from my expectation without actually forking out significant funds to acquire the stock may be to buy a put option with the stock as the underlying asset. I could then make a profit when the put option premium rises after the announcement of poor earnings or outlook. If however the earnings surprises on the upside, at most I would lose will be the option premium paid previously. Alternatively, I could write a put option with a strike price that I would be willing to buy the stock when its price falls upon release of the earnings results, and earn the option fee upfront from selling the option that will help to subsidise my payment for the stock in due course when the option buyer exercises the pu
How I would use stock option during earnings season?
avatarpekss
2022-12-26

Auto-Invest Made Easy

Lo and behold, Auto-Invest feature in Tiger Brokers has finally been launched with much fanfare! It’s a nice feature that investors like me would welcome and look forward to, as it helps to take our emotions out of investing. By selecting among popular stocks in the US market and defining a fixed investment amount as low as USD5 as well as a fixed investment frequency in the Auto-Invest plan, we’ll be able to easily devise a dollar-cost averaging strategy on the selected stocks. What I particularly like about the Auto-Invest feature is the low entry barrier with minimum investment amount of mere USD5 and the ability to acquire fractional shares of highly priced stocks. As market statistics has shown, time in the market tends to generate higher returns over time compared with timing the mar
Auto-Invest Made Easy
avatarpekss
2022-12-26
My Christmas stock wishlist is none other than $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$ , which has the largest market capitalisation in our local bourse and likewise has the highest weightage in my investment portfolio. DBS stands to gain the most among its local peers in net interest margin on the back of rising interest rate as a relentless Fed continues to hike rates to rein in a stubbornly high inflation. However, DBS is not spared from a sinking tide, as investors are pricing in an increasing odd of a recession next year. Loan growth is expected to slow down, as companies turn more cautious on new investments and business expansions, while bad debts may rise when corporate and individual borrowers are unable to servi
avatarpekss
2022-12-22

Will the Market Regain its Glory Next Year?

I predict that S&P500 index will hit 4200 in 2023 after a turbulent year that witnessed the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes to rein in a surging inflation and global supply chain disruptions triggered by demand spikes from economic re-opening post-COVID-19 lockdowns, and worsened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Technology sector, which had benefited tremendously at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, as corporations raced to accelerate the digitisations of their businesses and operations, and individuals rushed to acquire or upgrade their electronic devices for remote working and studying, faced the greatest headwinds this year as their valuations are particularly sensitive to interest rates. With a looming recession, corporations from big techs the likes of Microsoft and Meta Platforms t
Will the Market Regain its Glory Next Year?
avatarpekss
2022-12-19

How I Lost Half a Million Overnight and My Lesson Learnt

If I’ve to describe my 2022 portfolio in one word, it’ll have to be “boring”. The core and largest composition of my portfolio is in the banking sector and primarily in our local banking giant $DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$ , followed by $OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP(O39.SI)$  and lastly $UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$ , that have returned 6.5%, 11.8% and 18.5% year to date respectively including dividends. I’ve been holding DBS for the longest time, gradually increasing my stake whenever the stock was on sale, such as when investors were rushing for e
How I Lost Half a Million Overnight and My Lesson Learnt
avatarpekss
2022-12-16
My advice to China Tigers with the pandemic reopening would be as follows: 1) Take the COVID-19 vaccines and boosters whenever they are available to you 2) Wear masks when you are in public, especially crowded places such as public transports and markets, and in particular when you visit medical facilities like hospitals, clinics and nursing homes. 3) Discard your used masks properly in rubbish bins, rather than conveniently disposing of them anywhere. 4) Practise good personal hygiene including disinfecting or washing your hands after you have come into contact with foreign objects in public places before touching your eyes, nose or mouth. 4) If you sneeze, cover your mouth with a tissue even when you think nobody is nearby, and dispose the tissue appropriately in rubbish bins after using
avatarpekss
2022-12-14

Santa Claus Rally or Year-end Sale

After latest inflation data showed a cooling of prices of essential items, the US market opened strongly last night before profit-taking took some of the gains off the table. All eyes will be on the FOMC’s rate decision after the end of the 2-day session tonight. The market is expecting a pivoting by the Fed on the cooler-than-expected latest inflation print and pricing a 50 basis points rate increment, ending consecutive 75 basis points hikes. More importantly will be the Fed’s expectation on the inflation trend and economy health on the back of recent monetary tightening, as the job market has remained robust. Hopefully, the Fed’s final rate decision of this year will bring cheers to the otherwise volatile market so far this year and usher in a Santa Claus Rally to recover some lost grou
Santa Claus Rally or Year-end Sale
avatarpekss
2022-12-12
Will Santa Claus Visit the Stock Market this Year? I hope he will, though I doubt that he will bring much presents, given prevailing rising costs and supply chain disruptions, that is if he is not down with COVID or held up by COVID restrictions. Hence, I'll not count on a Santa Claus Rally this year. Despite the year-end festive mood, Fed’s monetary policy decision and expectation on the inflation trend will still rule the day and determine the broad market performance in the last few weeks of the year. I believe that consumer discretionary may outperform the broader market as we approach the festive season, as consumers, having been conservative in their spendings for most part of the year on anticipation of an impending recession, may relax their belts to bring some cheers to their love
avatarpekss
2022-12-05

Defensive play in an inflationary climate

Pharmaceutical giant $Merck(MRK)$ just announced an increase of almost 6% in its quarterly dividend from 69 cents to 73 cents, raising the annualized dividend to $2.92 per share, and bringing smiles to its long-term shareholders like @DiAngel and me. The stock has returned 43% year to date or 47% returns including dividends, compared with almost 15% fall in the S&P 500 market index during the same period. I like the defensive nature of pharmaceutical business, given the aging worldwide population and the globally growing awareness of healthcare. Even in the face of rising inflation, a patient is more likely to forgo discretionary spendings on holidays and other entertainment, than
Defensive play in an inflationary climate
avatarpekss
2022-12-02

The Heat is On!

Calling on all football fans and Tiger Coins lovers, if you are still not aware, Tiger’s Football Season’s mini game Perfect Goal has commenced! Kudos to the Tiger Brokers’ team that is always coming up with interesting events and rewarding activities to give back to the Tiger Community and help us to immerse into prevailing festivals and latest happenings around us! Among the Tiger games I’ve participated, this is by far the most engaging and rewarding one, as there are multiple ways to win attractive prizes! Even my wife who knows nothing about soccer has easily gotten the hang of it! Go to the Campaign Center in your Tiger Brokers app and you will meet a delightful Tiger in football costume holding a soccer ball and waving at you to welcome you to join the game! The first thing I’ll do
The Heat is On!
avatarpekss
2022-11-24
In a buoyant session last night when investors heaved a sign of relief after release of the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting signalled a potential slowdown in the Fed’s interest hike hikes, and the banking sector was largely trading in green, the deeply red 2.2% fall in $Citigroup(C)$ was an eyesore. The abating inflation from its peak allows breathing space for the Fed to pivot to a less hawkish stance to avoid hard-landing the U.S. economy into a deep recession, which would otherwise lead to widespread economic slowdown and surging bad debts. Barring a recession, the higher interest rates have been improving the net interest margins of banks. Nevertheless, I found a couple of news yesterday that may explain the exceptional fall in its share

Go to Tiger App to see more news