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Linda2240

Linda2240

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2023-06-18

[微笑]

rate hike "invalid"? U.S. stocks have gone back, and so has the dollar

2023-05-28

[微笑]

US debt default crisis: preliminary agreement reached, but alarm far from lifted

2023-05-20

[微笑]

"Extreme Game"! U.S. debt ceiling talks 'end to no avail' on Friday

2023-05-19

[微笑]

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-05-14

[微笑]

Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400? Ninety percent of funds underperformed the broader market during the year. Who caught the bull market?

2023-05-04

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Not by "moat" alone! Buffett also has a big investment "trick"

2023-05-03

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U.S. ADP employment was 296,000 in April, biggest increase since July 2022

2023-04-30

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How long can U.S. tech stocks be bullish? Just look at the earnings report of Apple and AMD next week

2023-04-29

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First Republic "Whose Family Flowers"? Report: FDIC asks bidders like JPMorgan to submit final offers by Sunday

2023-04-28

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Fed blames Silicon Valley Bank's collapse on management issues, poor regulation

2023-04-27

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North-South Water Trends | Near the long holiday, the net purchase of North Water is less than 100 million, and 1.3 billion Dagu Guo Index ETF; Nanshui Buys Ping An of China

2023-04-25

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-04-22

[微笑]

Earnings Preview | Is there room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key

2023-04-20

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A single-season jump of $11.4 billion! U.S. junk bond growth returns to its highs under recession pressure

2023-04-19

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Morgan Stanley: Q1 Revenue Beats Estimates, But Total Deposit Amount Misses Estimates

2023-04-18

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Lockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue of $15.1 billion slightly exceeded expectations

2023-04-17

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Financial Report Preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend be eaten, and will it "backlash" itself

2023-04-16

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Don't miss this bull run

2023-04-15

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2023-04-14

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Middle East local tyrants sweep goods crazy! The latest A-share positions are exposed

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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U.S. stocks have gone back, and so has the dollar","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156309203","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“四十年来最激进加息周期”如同没有发生！","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Looking back at the node when the Federal Reserve suspended its rate hike in June, we can find such a magical scene: the performance of the US stock market and the US dollar has hardly changed compared with the beginning of the rate hike cycle in early 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083e237d5166eb06a4af3db441f84982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/></p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The broader market index travels back in time to 15 months ago</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As of the closing of U.S. stocks on Friday, the S&P 500 index reported 4,409 points for five consecutive weeks. When the Federal Reserve started the current rate hike cycle 15 months ago, the S&P closed at 4,358 points. The S&P 500 is now higher than it was when the first rate hike took place on March 16, 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7359049e4467a9f0aff05065fa3d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1415\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Generally speaking, the tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve rate hike, although it is not a direct factor leading to a bear market, will also lead to a correction of the broader market.</strong>The sharp correction of U.S. stocks, especially tech stocks, in 2022 can confirm this. After the rate hike in the spring, U.S. stocks sold off and fell into a bear market due to high inflation and rising borrowing costs, and recession forecasts spread through the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, in the first half of this year, U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, driven by strong corporate earnings. Wall Street analysts had already slashed their expectations before the earnings season began at the beginning of the year. As a result, strong results offset the pessimism after companies reported earnings one after another.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to FactSet data, as of the end of May, nearly 80% of U.S. listed companies had beaten expectations in their first quarter earnings, and the proportion reached a new high in two years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, driven by the craze set off by ChatGPT, big tech stocks such as the Seven Sisters of U.S. stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Google) continued to rise, pulling the index up. In the first half of this year, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded and entered a technical bull market one after another.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At present,<strong>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still insisted on hawking after the interest rate meeting in June, the future path of monetary policy is highly certain. The market generally expects that the rate hike is approaching the end, and the Fed's tightening stance can no longer suppress the upward momentum of the market.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg quoted experts as saying,<strong>In the next 6-12 months, the Fed will be less important and other global drivers and fundamentals will play a bigger role.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, the impact of macro factors on equities has fallen from 83% to 71% since March, the biggest three-month decline since 2009, according to Citigroup's models.</p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Synchronous decline in the US Dollar Index</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, the strength of the dollar has also waned, with the US Dollar Index now trading near April 2022 levels, down nearly 10% from its all-time high.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933da88b6af1b7ce7a54fb42e84aa2ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>the US Dollar Index, which measures the exchange rate fluctuations of the US dollar against six major currencies, is more sensitive to interest rate policy and usually has a positive correlation with interest rate levels, i.e. rate hike drives the US Dollar Index up and vice versa.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This can be observed in the current rate hike cycle, which has lasted 15 months and accumulated 500 basis points. The Federal Reserve started a rate hike since March' 22, followed by four consecutive radical rate hike of 75 basis points between June and September. the US Dollar Index rose from about 102 in early June to about 114 at the end of September, a cumulative increase of more than 11%. Other currencies were under tremendous devaluation pressure during the period. It was not until the recent resolution of the debt ceiling crisis and the clear signal of the Federal Reserve's suspension of rate hike that the US Dollar Index finally fell back.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently, the market expects two more 25 basis point rate hike or one more 50 basis point rate hike by the end of the year. But the previously widely anticipated recession has yet to happen, and the U.S. economy appears to have withstood the brunt of rate hike, with a resilient labor market and mostly healthy corporate balance sheets.<strong>In their latest report, strategists at Bank of America boosted their outlook for the U.S. stock market and became increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook. They predicted that if there was a recession, it would also be relatively mild.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>rate hike \"invalid\"? 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U.S. stocks have gone back, and so has the dollar\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-06-18 20:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Looking back at the node when the Federal Reserve suspended its rate hike in June, we can find such a magical scene: the performance of the US stock market and the US dollar has hardly changed compared with the beginning of the rate hike cycle in early 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083e237d5166eb06a4af3db441f84982\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"/></p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">The broader market index travels back in time to 15 months ago</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As of the closing of U.S. stocks on Friday, the S&P 500 index reported 4,409 points for five consecutive weeks. When the Federal Reserve started the current rate hike cycle 15 months ago, the S&P closed at 4,358 points. The S&P 500 is now higher than it was when the first rate hike took place on March 16, 2022.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7359049e4467a9f0aff05065fa3d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"1415\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Generally speaking, the tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve rate hike, although it is not a direct factor leading to a bear market, will also lead to a correction of the broader market.</strong>The sharp correction of U.S. stocks, especially tech stocks, in 2022 can confirm this. After the rate hike in the spring, U.S. stocks sold off and fell into a bear market due to high inflation and rising borrowing costs, and recession forecasts spread through the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, in the first half of this year, U.S. stocks rebounded sharply, driven by strong corporate earnings. Wall Street analysts had already slashed their expectations before the earnings season began at the beginning of the year. As a result, strong results offset the pessimism after companies reported earnings one after another.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to FactSet data, as of the end of May, nearly 80% of U.S. listed companies had beaten expectations in their first quarter earnings, and the proportion reached a new high in two years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, driven by the craze set off by ChatGPT, big tech stocks such as the Seven Sisters of U.S. stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Google) continued to rise, pulling the index up. In the first half of this year, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebounded and entered a technical bull market one after another.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At present,<strong>Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell still insisted on hawking after the interest rate meeting in June, the future path of monetary policy is highly certain. The market generally expects that the rate hike is approaching the end, and the Fed's tightening stance can no longer suppress the upward momentum of the market.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg quoted experts as saying,<strong>In the next 6-12 months, the Fed will be less important and other global drivers and fundamentals will play a bigger role.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, the impact of macro factors on equities has fallen from 83% to 71% since March, the biggest three-month decline since 2009, according to Citigroup's models.</p><p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">Synchronous decline in the US Dollar Index</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, the strength of the dollar has also waned, with the US Dollar Index now trading near April 2022 levels, down nearly 10% from its all-time high.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933da88b6af1b7ce7a54fb42e84aa2ec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"833\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>the US Dollar Index, which measures the exchange rate fluctuations of the US dollar against six major currencies, is more sensitive to interest rate policy and usually has a positive correlation with interest rate levels, i.e. rate hike drives the US Dollar Index up and vice versa.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This can be observed in the current rate hike cycle, which has lasted 15 months and accumulated 500 basis points. The Federal Reserve started a rate hike since March' 22, followed by four consecutive radical rate hike of 75 basis points between June and September. the US Dollar Index rose from about 102 in early June to about 114 at the end of September, a cumulative increase of more than 11%. Other currencies were under tremendous devaluation pressure during the period. It was not until the recent resolution of the debt ceiling crisis and the clear signal of the Federal Reserve's suspension of rate hike that the US Dollar Index finally fell back.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Currently, the market expects two more 25 basis point rate hike or one more 50 basis point rate hike by the end of the year. But the previously widely anticipated recession has yet to happen, and the U.S. economy appears to have withstood the brunt of rate hike, with a resilient labor market and mostly healthy corporate balance sheets.<strong>In their latest report, strategists at Bank of America boosted their outlook for the U.S. stock market and became increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook. They predicted that if there was a recession, it would also be relatively mild.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691390\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3691390","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1156309203","content_text":"站在六月美联储暂停加息的节点回看，可以发现这样一幕神奇的景象：美股大盘和美元的表现，相比22年初加息周期开始时几乎没有变化。大盘指数时空穿越 回到15个月前截至周五美股收盘，标普500指数收获五周连阳，报4409点。当15个月前，美联储开启本轮加息周期时，标普大盘收于4358点。现在的标普500指数，比2022年3月16日第一次加息时还要高。通常来说，美联储加息收紧流动性，尽管不是导致熊市的直接因素，但也会导致大盘的调整。2022年，美国股市尤其是科技股的大幅调整可以印证这一点。在春天的加息之后，由于高通膨和借贷成本攀升，美国股票遭到抛售而落入熊市，经济衰退预测更是在市场中扩散。但是，今年上半年，在强劲的企业盈利推动下，美股大幅反弹。在年初进入财报季之前，华尔街分析师原本已经大幅下调预期，结果，在企业陆续公布财报后，强劲业绩抵消了悲观情绪。FactSet的数据显示，截至5月底，近80%美股上市公司第一季度财报超出预期，比例创下2年来新高。此外，在ChatGPT掀起的热潮推动下，美股七姐妹（苹果、微软、英伟达、亚马逊、Meta、特斯拉和谷歌）等大型科技股持续走高，拉动指数上升。今年上半年，纳指和标普500指数出现反弹，相继进入技术性牛市。目前来看，尽管在六月议息会议后美联储主席鲍威尔依然坚持放鹰，但货币政策的未来路径已有很高确定性，市场普遍预计加息已经临近终点，联储的紧缩立场已经无法再抑制市场的上行动力。彭博社援引专家说法称，未来6-12个月，美联储的重要性会降低，其他全球驱动因素和基本面因素将发挥更大的作用。此外，根据花旗集团的模型，自3月以来，宏观因素对股市的影响已从83%降至71%，这是2009年以来最大的三个月降幅。美元指数同步回落与此同时，美元的强势也有所减弱，美元指数目前在2022年4月的水平附近交易，较其历史高点下降了近10%。衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率波动的美元指数对利率政策较为敏感，通常与利率水平呈正相关关系，即加息推动美元指数上涨，反之则下跌。在本轮已持续15个月、累计500基点的加息周期中，可以观察到这一点。美联储自22年3月开始加息，随后在6月至9月期间，连续四次激进加息75个基点。美元指数从6月初的约102涨至9月末的约114，累计涨幅超过11%。期间其他货币承受了巨大的贬值压力。直到近期债务上限危机解决、美联储暂停加息信号明确，美元指数才终于回落。目前，市场预计，到今年年底前还会有两次25个基点或一次50个基点的加息。但此前普遍预计的衰退尚还没有发生，美国经济似乎已经承受了加息的冲击，劳动力市场富有弹性，企业资产负债表大多健康。美银的策略师在最新报告中提升了他们对美股市场的展望，并对经济前景越来越乐观，他们预测，如果出现经济衰退，也会相对温和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979022796,"gmtCreate":1685289384316,"gmtModify":1685289388358,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9979022796","repostId":"1169636070","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169636070","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1685276505,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169636070?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-28 20:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"US debt default crisis: preliminary agreement reached, but alarm far from lifted","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169636070","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"闯关国会，又是一场“恶仗”。经过数周的激烈谈判，美国两党终于在周六晚间就解决美国债务上限问题达成“原则性协议”。不过，这份协议还需得到美国国会的快速通过，才能真正解除本次美债违约的“警报”。而这，又将","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Breaking through Congress is another \"vicious battle\".</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After weeks of intense negotiations, the two parties in the United States finally reached an \"agreement in principle\" on Saturday evening to resolve the U.S. debt ceiling. However, this agreement needs to be quickly passed by the US Congress before it can truly lift the \"alarm\" of this US debt default. And this will be another \"vicious battle\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the agreement was initially reached, Biden said it represented a \"compromise\" for him, while Republican House Speaker McCarthy said the agreement \"made historic cuts in spending\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Looking back at this round of US debt ceiling game, it is not difficult to find that the contradiction between the two sides is that Republicans hope to reach an agreement to significantly reduce government expenditure while adjusting the debt ceiling; Democrats, on the other hand, insist on adjusting the debt ceiling relatively independently and are reluctant to make much of a concession on spending cuts.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many analysts believe that the product of this compromise may not satisfy the more radical Republican lawmakers nor satisfy the left wing of the Democratic Party:</p><p>\"It is almost certain that the cuts in the package are both too mild to win the vote of hard-line conservatives and too harsh to win the vote of House radicals.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, many media commented that the prospects of the agreement in both the House and Senate may be \"bumpy\". CCTV News quoted the Washington Post as saying that it is a \"difficult task\" to pass an agreement in the current \"easily troubled and divided\" Congress in a short time.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the timetable given by McCarthy, the House of Representatives will vote next Wednesday (May 31) and then send it to the Senate for a session. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Friday that if the U.S. Congress fails to pass the agreement in time, the government will default on its debt on June 5.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, the U.S. Congress must successfully vote to pass the relevant bill before the \"X Date\" to avoid the U.S. default on its debt. If the two houses vote \"slightly differently\" next week, the potential risk of \"technical default\" of U.S. debt will far from disappear.</p><p><h2>\"Bipartisan cooperation\" is a must, and \"getting rid of the thorn\" is the key</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats and Republicans control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, respectively, so the two parties must \"cooperate\" to possibly get the relevant bill passed in both chambers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As mentioned earlier, though, the conflict between the two sides is that radical lawmakers in both parties may struggle to reach concessions on the bill, and senators from each party may find different reasons to oppose the bill — some far-right Republicans may think spending cuts are inadequate, while some Democratic left-wing politicians may feel they are conceding too much to Republicans.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, on the basis of \"bipartisan cooperation\" between Biden and McCarthy, whether these \"prickly\" lawmakers can be dealt with is the key to solving the problem.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">White House officials have unofficially calculated that, in the event of losing a portion of the Republican vote,<strong>McCarthy could need as many as 100 Democratic votes to secure a 218 majority on the final debt ceiling deal — ensuring it can pass the House.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if the bill hits a serious block in the House, Democrats can also resort to a rarely used emergency tactic — a \"petition of release\" to vote on the debt ceiling in a \"clean\" adjustment that should have no strings attached. The parliamentary strategy, though, is even more remote — while Democrats support it, it needs to be persuaded enough Republican majorities to join or it won't succeed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, Biden could try to invoke the untested legal theory of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which states that \"the validity of U.S. public debt…must not be challenged,\" thus clearing the way for him to authorize more borrowing. That could be immediately challenged in court, though.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If passed in the House of Representatives, the bill would go to the Senate.<strong>In the Senate, the bill needs the support of at least nine Republicans to garner 60 of 100 votes to keep the legislation moving.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Democratic-controlled Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has full control over when the bill will go to a vote, media analysis said. However, individual senators can slow the process by insisting on procedural operations, including 30 hours of debate first on whether to begin debate and another 30 hours of debate on the bill itself.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And the Senate needs to pass the bill without changing the House bill. Otherwise, it would have to be beaten back to the House to restart a new round of voting.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if there is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris can vote to pass 51-50.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Only after it has been passed by both chambers can the deal go to the White House and be signed into law by Biden. Only by completing this legislation quickly can the \"alarm\" of this US debt default be successfully lifted.</p><p><h2>Timeline of this round of \"US Debt Ceiling Game\"</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, 2023, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to Congress saying that the U.S. will hit the statutory debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion on January 19 and that the Treasury Department will begin taking some \"extraordinary measures\" that cash and \"extraordinary measures\" may support through early June.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that it is not uncommon for U.S. debt to hit the upper limit, but this time the market panic is relatively rare. The reason may be related to the current extremely tight monetary policy in the United States, regional banking crisis and recession expectations. The frequent reminders of US Treasury Secretary Yellen further ignited this panic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13th, Yellen sent a letter to Congress to take \"extraordinary measures\" on January 19th; On April 25th, US Treasury Secretary Yellen delivered a speech, warning that there would be serious consequences if the ceiling of US debt was not resolved; On May 1 and May 15, Yellen sent letters to Congress formally warning of an earlier-than-expected default date; On May 27th, Yellen warned that if the U.S. Congress failed to pass the agreement in time, the government would default on its debt on June 5th.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the evening of May 27th, US President Joe Biden and Republican leader McCarthy have reached an agreement in principle on raising the federal government's debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion. The media reported, citing people familiar with the matter,<strong>Negotiators on both sides agreed to raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling for two years, while cutting and limiting some government spending for two years, leaving non-defense spending nearly flat for two years</strong>, the agreement did not mention the budget cap after 2025, announcing that the specific bill would be sent to the House of Representatives for a vote on May 31.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Council of Economic Advisers, a White House agency, estimates that if the U.S. debt defaults, the U.S. stock market will plummet 45%. According to Moody's estimates, if the U.S. debt defaults, the unemployment rate in the United States will soar by 5 percentage points, which means about 8 million Americans are unemployed. Meanwhile, governments subject to the debt ceiling will not be able to cope with the downturn through fiscal stimulus, leading to a deeper recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US debt default crisis: preliminary agreement reached, but alarm far from lifted</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS debt default crisis: preliminary agreement reached, but alarm far from lifted\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-28 20:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Breaking through Congress is another \"vicious battle\".</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After weeks of intense negotiations, the two parties in the United States finally reached an \"agreement in principle\" on Saturday evening to resolve the U.S. debt ceiling. However, this agreement needs to be quickly passed by the US Congress before it can truly lift the \"alarm\" of this US debt default. And this will be another \"vicious battle\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the agreement was initially reached, Biden said it represented a \"compromise\" for him, while Republican House Speaker McCarthy said the agreement \"made historic cuts in spending\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Looking back at this round of US debt ceiling game, it is not difficult to find that the contradiction between the two sides is that Republicans hope to reach an agreement to significantly reduce government expenditure while adjusting the debt ceiling; Democrats, on the other hand, insist on adjusting the debt ceiling relatively independently and are reluctant to make much of a concession on spending cuts.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Many analysts believe that the product of this compromise may not satisfy the more radical Republican lawmakers nor satisfy the left wing of the Democratic Party:</p><p>\"It is almost certain that the cuts in the package are both too mild to win the vote of hard-line conservatives and too harsh to win the vote of House radicals.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, many media commented that the prospects of the agreement in both the House and Senate may be \"bumpy\". CCTV News quoted the Washington Post as saying that it is a \"difficult task\" to pass an agreement in the current \"easily troubled and divided\" Congress in a short time.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the timetable given by McCarthy, the House of Representatives will vote next Wednesday (May 31) and then send it to the Senate for a session. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Friday that if the U.S. Congress fails to pass the agreement in time, the government will default on its debt on June 5.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, the U.S. Congress must successfully vote to pass the relevant bill before the \"X Date\" to avoid the U.S. default on its debt. If the two houses vote \"slightly differently\" next week, the potential risk of \"technical default\" of U.S. debt will far from disappear.</p><p><h2>\"Bipartisan cooperation\" is a must, and \"getting rid of the thorn\" is the key</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats and Republicans control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, respectively, so the two parties must \"cooperate\" to possibly get the relevant bill passed in both chambers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As mentioned earlier, though, the conflict between the two sides is that radical lawmakers in both parties may struggle to reach concessions on the bill, and senators from each party may find different reasons to oppose the bill — some far-right Republicans may think spending cuts are inadequate, while some Democratic left-wing politicians may feel they are conceding too much to Republicans.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Therefore, on the basis of \"bipartisan cooperation\" between Biden and McCarthy, whether these \"prickly\" lawmakers can be dealt with is the key to solving the problem.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">White House officials have unofficially calculated that, in the event of losing a portion of the Republican vote,<strong>McCarthy could need as many as 100 Democratic votes to secure a 218 majority on the final debt ceiling deal — ensuring it can pass the House.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if the bill hits a serious block in the House, Democrats can also resort to a rarely used emergency tactic — a \"petition of release\" to vote on the debt ceiling in a \"clean\" adjustment that should have no strings attached. The parliamentary strategy, though, is even more remote — while Democrats support it, it needs to be persuaded enough Republican majorities to join or it won't succeed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, Biden could try to invoke the untested legal theory of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which states that \"the validity of U.S. public debt…must not be challenged,\" thus clearing the way for him to authorize more borrowing. That could be immediately challenged in court, though.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">If passed in the House of Representatives, the bill would go to the Senate.<strong>In the Senate, the bill needs the support of at least nine Republicans to garner 60 of 100 votes to keep the legislation moving.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the Democratic-controlled Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has full control over when the bill will go to a vote, media analysis said. However, individual senators can slow the process by insisting on procedural operations, including 30 hours of debate first on whether to begin debate and another 30 hours of debate on the bill itself.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And the Senate needs to pass the bill without changing the House bill. Otherwise, it would have to be beaten back to the House to restart a new round of voting.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that if there is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, Vice President Kamala Harris can vote to pass 51-50.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Only after it has been passed by both chambers can the deal go to the White House and be signed into law by Biden. Only by completing this legislation quickly can the \"alarm\" of this US debt default be successfully lifted.</p><p><h2>Timeline of this round of \"US Debt Ceiling Game\"</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13, 2023, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen sent a letter to Congress saying that the U.S. will hit the statutory debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion on January 19 and that the Treasury Department will begin taking some \"extraordinary measures\" that cash and \"extraordinary measures\" may support through early June.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that it is not uncommon for U.S. debt to hit the upper limit, but this time the market panic is relatively rare. The reason may be related to the current extremely tight monetary policy in the United States, regional banking crisis and recession expectations. The frequent reminders of US Treasury Secretary Yellen further ignited this panic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On January 13th, Yellen sent a letter to Congress to take \"extraordinary measures\" on January 19th; On April 25th, US Treasury Secretary Yellen delivered a speech, warning that there would be serious consequences if the ceiling of US debt was not resolved; On May 1 and May 15, Yellen sent letters to Congress formally warning of an earlier-than-expected default date; On May 27th, Yellen warned that if the U.S. Congress failed to pass the agreement in time, the government would default on its debt on June 5th.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the evening of May 27th, US President Joe Biden and Republican leader McCarthy have reached an agreement in principle on raising the federal government's debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion. The media reported, citing people familiar with the matter,<strong>Negotiators on both sides agreed to raise the U.S. federal debt ceiling for two years, while cutting and limiting some government spending for two years, leaving non-defense spending nearly flat for two years</strong>, the agreement did not mention the budget cap after 2025, announcing that the specific bill would be sent to the House of Representatives for a vote on May 31.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Council of Economic Advisers, a White House agency, estimates that if the U.S. debt defaults, the U.S. stock market will plummet 45%. According to Moody's estimates, if the U.S. debt defaults, the unemployment rate in the United States will soar by 5 percentage points, which means about 8 million Americans are unemployed. Meanwhile, governments subject to the debt ceiling will not be able to cope with the downturn through fiscal stimulus, leading to a deeper recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689787\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689787","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169636070","content_text":"闯关国会，又是一场“恶仗”。经过数周的激烈谈判，美国两党终于在周六晚间就解决美国债务上限问题达成“原则性协议”。不过，这份协议还需得到美国国会的快速通过，才能真正解除本次美债违约的“警报”。而这，又将是一场“恶仗”。在协议初步达成后，拜登表示，对他而言这代表了“妥协”，而共和党籍的众议院议长麦卡锡则表示，协议“在开支方面做了历史性的削减”。回顾本轮美债上限博弈，不难发现双方的矛盾点在于，共和党人希望在调整债务上限的同时，达成大幅削减政府开支的协议；而民主党人则坚持相对独立地调整债务上限，不愿在削减开支方面做出太大让步。不少分析认为，这份妥协的产物恐怕既无法满足共和党内立场更为激进的议员，又无法令民主党左翼感到满意：“几乎可以肯定的是，一揽子计划中的削减措施既过于温和，无法赢得强硬保守派的投票，又过于严厉，无法赢得众议院激进派的投票。”因此，不少媒体评论称，该协议在参众两院的前景可能都将“崎岖不平”。央视新闻援引《华盛顿邮报》评论称，短时间内在当前这个“容易陷入困境且分裂的”国会通过协议是一项“艰难的任务”。按麦卡锡给出的时间表，众议院将在下周三（5月31日）进行投票，随后送往参议院过会。而美国财政部本周五曾表示，如果美国国会不能及时通过协议，政府将会在6月5日出现债务违约。因此，美国国会必须成功在“X Date”前投票通过相关法案，才能避免美国出现债务违约。如果下周两院投票“稍有差池”，美债“技术性违约”的潜在风险就远远谈不上消失。“两党合作”是必须，“搞定刺头”是关键2022年中期选举后，民主党和共和党分别控制着美国会参议院和众议院，因此两党必须达成“合作”，才有可能使相关法案在两院都获得通过。不过，如前所述，双方的矛盾点在于，双方党内激进派议员可能很难就法案达成让步，来自每个党派的参议员可能会找到不同的理由反对该法案——部分极右翼共和党人可能会认为支出削减不够充分，而部分民主党左翼政客可能会觉得他们向共和党人让步太多。因此，在拜登和麦卡锡达成“两党合作”的基础上，能否搞定这些“刺头”议员，是解决问题的关键。据Politico此前报道，白宫官员曾非正式地计算过，在失去共和党一部分选票的情况下，麦卡锡可能需要获得多达100张民主党选票，才能以确保最终的债务上限协议取得218多数票——确保协议能够在众议院获得通过。值得一提的是，如果法案在众议院严重遇阻，民主党人还可以采取一种很少使用的紧急策略——“解除请愿书”，以“清洁”调整，不应该有附加条件的方式对债务上限进行投票。不过，这项议会策略更是希望渺茫——尽管民主党人支持这一做法，但需要说服足够多的共和党多数派加入，否则无法成功。此外，拜登可以尝试援引美国宪法第14修正案的未经检验的法律理论，该修正案规定“美国公共债务的有效性……不得被质疑”，从而为他授权更多借款扫清了道路。不过，这可能会立即在法庭上受到质疑。如果在众议院获得通过，该法案将提交参议院。在参议院，这项法案需要至少9名共和党人的支持，才能取得100票中的60票支持，从而继续推动立法。媒体分析称，在民主党控制的参议院，多数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)对该法案何时进行投票拥有完全控制权。但是，个别参议员可以通过坚持程序性操作来延缓这一进程，包括就是否开始辩论先进行30个小时的辩论，以及就法案本身再进行30个小时的辩论。而参议院需要在不改变众议院议案的情况下通过该法案。否则，它将不得不被打回众议院重新开始新一轮投票。值得一提的是，如果参议院出现50-50的平局，副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯可以投票以51-50通过。只有在参众两院都取得通过后，该协议方能提交白宫，由拜登签署成为法律。而只有快速完成这一立法，本次美债违约的“警报”才能顺利解除。本轮“美债上限博弈”时间线2023年1月13日，美国财政部长耶伦致信国会称，美国将在1月19日触及31.4万亿美元的法定债务上限，财政部将开始采取一些“非常措施”，现金和“非常措施”可能会支持到6月初。值得一提的是，美债触及上限并不罕见，但这次市场恐慌情绪之浓较为罕见。究其原因，可能和当前美国极其紧缩的货币政策、地区银行危机与衰退预期有关。而美财长耶伦的频频提醒，又进一步点燃了这一恐慌。1月13日耶伦致信国会将会在1月19日采取“非常措施”；4月25日，美财长耶伦发表演讲，警告美债上限不解决会产生严重后果；5月1日和5月15日，耶伦致信国会，正式警告违约日期比预期更早；5月27日，耶伦又警告称表示，如果美国国会不能及时通过协议，政府将会在6月5日出现债务违约。5月27日晚，美国总统拜登和国会共和党领袖麦卡锡已就提高联邦政府31.4万亿美元的债务上限达成原则性协议，媒体援引知情人士消息报道，双方谈判代表同意将美国联邦债务上限提高两年，同时将削减和限制两年内部分政府支出，非国防支出在2年内保持接近持平，协议中并未提及2025年后的预算上限，宣布具体法案于5月31日交由众议院表决。据白宫的一个机构经济顾问委员会估计，如果美债发生违约，美国股市将暴跌 45%。另据穆迪估计，若美债违约，那么美国失业率将飙升5个百分点，这意味着大约800万美国人失业。同时，受债务上限限制的政府将无法通过财政刺激应对经济低迷，从而导致更严重的衰退。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970507062,"gmtCreate":1684566773356,"gmtModify":1684566776862,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970507062","repostId":"1134825236","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1134825236","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1684547417,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134825236?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-20 09:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"\"Extreme Game\"! U.S. debt ceiling talks 'end to no avail' on Friday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134825236","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。据报道，债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据路透报道，美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended Friday with neither side mentioning any progress or scheduling further meetings. The debt ceiling impasse is reportedly focused on spending levels in 2024.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended Friday with neither side mentioning any progress or scheduling further meetings, Reuters reported.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republican Rep. garrett Graves told reporters after a brief meeting with White House officials at the Capitol:</p><p>\"We had a very, very candid discussion about where we are and how things need to go.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Tonight is not a negotiation,\" Graves said, adding,<strong>The time for the next meeting has not been set.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>He echoed the statement of House Speaker McCarthy, the leader of the US Republican Party, that progress needs to be made on changing the \"trajectory\" of the rapidly rising US government deficit spending and debt.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"We have to spend less than we did last year,\" McCarthy said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another Republican negotiator, Rep. Patrick McHenry, said McCarthy will be briefed on the progress of the negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Neither councillor mentioned any progress.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the first meeting Friday morning, McCarthy's debt ceiling negotiators abruptly left shortly after a closed-door meeting with White House representatives began.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The news rocked financial markets as the debt ceiling deadline approached.</p><p><h2>Focus controversy: Spending levels in 2024</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republicans are pushing for deep spending cuts in exchange for higher caps.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The debt ceiling stalemate centers on spending levels in 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to a previous report by media outlet Axios, Democratic Rep. Dusty Johnson said:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The White House wants to continue to spend more money, and as long as that's their position, there's no way a deal can be reached.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Johnson said McCarthy \"stuck with\" the GOP demand to limit discretionary spending to 2022 levels.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Extreme Game\"! U.S. debt ceiling talks 'end to no avail' on Friday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Extreme Game\"! U.S. debt ceiling talks 'end to no avail' on Friday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-20 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended Friday with neither side mentioning any progress or scheduling further meetings. The debt ceiling impasse is reportedly focused on spending levels in 2024.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The second meeting between the White House and Republican negotiators on raising the debt ceiling ended Friday with neither side mentioning any progress or scheduling further meetings, Reuters reported.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republican Rep. garrett Graves told reporters after a brief meeting with White House officials at the Capitol:</p><p>\"We had a very, very candid discussion about where we are and how things need to go.\"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"Tonight is not a negotiation,\" Graves said, adding,<strong>The time for the next meeting has not been set.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>He echoed the statement of House Speaker McCarthy, the leader of the US Republican Party, that progress needs to be made on changing the \"trajectory\" of the rapidly rising US government deficit spending and debt.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"We have to spend less than we did last year,\" McCarthy said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another Republican negotiator, Rep. Patrick McHenry, said McCarthy will be briefed on the progress of the negotiations.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Neither councillor mentioned any progress.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the first meeting Friday morning, McCarthy's debt ceiling negotiators abruptly left shortly after a closed-door meeting with White House representatives began.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The news rocked financial markets as the debt ceiling deadline approached.</p><p><h2>Focus controversy: Spending levels in 2024</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Republicans are pushing for deep spending cuts in exchange for higher caps.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The debt ceiling stalemate centers on spending levels in 2024.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to a previous report by media outlet Axios, Democratic Rep. Dusty Johnson said:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"The White House wants to continue to spend more money, and as long as that's their position, there's no way a deal can be reached.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Johnson said McCarthy \"stuck with\" the GOP demand to limit discretionary spending to 2022 levels.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689223\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92ece06f0d5f47ced3643ec6cfcc433e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3689223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134825236","content_text":"美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。据报道，债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据路透报道，美国白宫与共和党谈判代表周五就提高债务上限举行的第二次会议结束，双方均未提及任何进展，也没有安排进一步的会议。共和党众议员格雷夫斯(garrett Graves)在国会大厦与白宫官员举行简短会晤后对记者说：“我们进行了非常、非常坦诚的讨论，讨论了我们的现状，讨论了事情需要如何发展。”“今晚不是一次谈判，”格雷夫斯说，并补充说，下一次会议的时间尚未确定。他赞同美国共和党领袖、众议院议长麦卡锡的说法，即需要在改变美国政府赤字支出和债务迅速上升的“轨迹”方面取得进展。麦卡锡说：“我们的支出必须比去年少。”另一位共和党谈判代表、众议员Patrick McHenry说，麦卡锡将听取有关谈判进展的简报。两位议员都没有提到任何进展。在周五早上的第一次会议上，麦卡锡的债务上限谈判代表与白宫代表的闭门会议开始后不久便突然离开。随着债务上限最后期限的临近，这一消息震动了金融市场。焦点争议：2024年的支出水平共和党人正在推动大幅削减开支，以换取提高上限。债务上限僵局集中在2024年的支出水平上。据媒体Axios此前报道，民主党众议员Dusty Johnson表示：“白宫想继续花更多的钱，只要这是他们的立场，就不可能达成协议。”Johnson说，麦卡锡“坚持”共和党要求将可自由支配的支出限制在2022年的水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970221659,"gmtCreate":1684496426571,"gmtModify":1684496430415,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970221659","repostId":"2336951950","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9970347405,"gmtCreate":1684078765708,"gmtModify":1684078769497,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970347405","repostId":"1154230640","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1154230640","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1684060454,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154230640?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-14 18:34","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400? Ninety percent of funds underperformed the broader market during the year. Who caught the bull market?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154230640","media":"券商中国","summary":"大盘在涨，账户却在亏损！开年以来，上证指数上涨5.93%，更是一度冲上3400点，沪深300指数上涨1.71%，人工智能、中特估等热门概念股涨势喜人。然而，投资者们感受却颇有不同，亦有网友调侃，“大盘","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The market is rising, but the account is losing money!</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 5.93%, once rushing to 3,400 points, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has risen by 1.71%. Popular concept stocks such as artificial intelligence and Zhongte Estimate have risen gratifyingly. However, investors' feelings are quite different, and some netizens ridiculed, \"The market is up so heartbreaking! Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400!\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Similarly, institutional investors failed to enjoy the \"win\" of 3,400 points. Insulated from the structural market, most funds don't perform as well as the market index, missing this round of market, and the performance of active equity funds is hardly optimistic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wind data shows that during the year, nearly 90% of active equity funds performed less than the Shanghai Composite Index, and nearly 60% of funds even suffered losses. However, fund products with good performance are sought after by the people and have received a large number of subscriptions. In order to maintain the sustainability of good performance, these scarce high-quality funds control the management scale through purchase restrictions.</p><p><strong>90% of funds underperformed during the year</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Public Offering of Fund's performance during the year significantly underperformed various market indexes. Wind data shows that as of May 14th, the partial stock hybrid fund index composed of more than 3,600 partial stock hybrid fund indexes (including C shares) has dropped by 3.25% this year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Judging from the performance of Public Offering of Fund, it is not difficult to find that the overall profit-making effect of A-share investment this year is poor. Specifically, among the more than 4,200 active equity funds, more than 3,700 funds underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, accounting for nearly 90%, of which more than 2,400 funds suffered losses, accounting for nearly 60%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What depresses the holders is that when the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3,400 points and reached a new high this year, many holders suffered obvious losses in their positions. As of May 10th, 16 active equity funds had suffered losses of more than 20% during the year, and more than 2,000 funds had even suffered losses for two consecutive years, among which many tens of billions of fund products had suffered losses of more than 20% for two consecutive years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that, against the background of constant market fluctuations and large-scale losses in fund product performance, the number of Public Offering of Funds whose funds have expired and liquidated this year has reached 97, approaching the 100 mark, which is a historic small peak. Among them, equity funds have become the main force in liquidation, accounting for nearly 80%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Insufficient size is a common reason for fund liquidation. Some professionals said that in recent years, the market situation is not good, and the performance and scale of mini funds are difficult to improve, and the input and output are low. Fund managers have accelerated the survival of the fittest in the industry by liquidating mini funds.</p><p><strong>Scarce high-quality funds restrict purchase and control scale</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the overall performance of Public Offering of Fund products is poor, there are still many funds that have resisted market fluctuations, stepped out of the independent trend, and continued to create value for holders.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the data of Wind, there were still 222 active equity funds with a performance increase of more than 10% during the year. For example, among the funds with large product scale, Dong Chen's Huatai Burui Fuli, Zhou Haidong's Chinese Business Advantage Industry, Hu Yibin's Huaan Media Internet and Xu Wenxing's China-Europe pension industry all performed well.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>During the market shock period, the net value of many active equity funds reached record highs. For example, the net value of 29 funds established for more than one year, such as Fan Kun's domestic demand-driven AB, Jiang Cheng's Zhongtai dividend preferred for one year, and Yang Xinxin's ICBC Selected Balance, set a new record this month.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, during the market downturn, some well-known fund managers did the opposite and controlled the management scale through purchase restrictions. Since May, funds managed by Bao Wuke, Lin Yingrui, Zhou Zhishuo and Zhou Haidong have started the purchase restriction mode. Many of these funds have continuously lowered the purchase limit amount.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the announcement, Bao Wu's manageable Invesco Great Wall value marginal flexible allocation mix has been limited to 2 million yuan since May 5th. The new blue-chip stock of Jianxin Potential managed by Zhou Zhishuo has been limited to 10,000 yuan since May 4th. The new trend of Chinese businessmen managed by Zhou Haidong prefers flexible allocation of hybrid funds with a purchase limit of 300,000 yuan since May 4th.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">During the market downturn, behind the fund purchase restriction is the holders'chase of high-quality funds. In the A-share market, the scarce high-quality funds attract a large number of holders to actively subscribe.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that when the A-share market fluctuates and adjusts, the inflow of funds is constantly accelerating. According to Wind data, as of May 10th, since May, the share of ETFs has increased by 24 billion shares, with a total share of 1.59 trillion shares and a total scale of 1.69 trillion yuan, of which the total share of equity ETFs has increased by 19.342 billion shares, with a continuous net inflow for four consecutive months.</p><p><strong>A-share market opportunities far outweigh risks</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The fund underperforms the index on a large scale, which is regarded as the ultimate interpretation of structural markets such as artificial intelligence and special estimation, and is not the normal state of the market. According to industry insiders, the opportunities in the medium-term dimension A-share market far outweigh the risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the beginning of this year, the market trend has been greatly differentiated. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, said that with the arrival of the market in May, the style of the market has begun to change, and investors have begun to pay attention to high-quality leading stocks with excellent performance. Consumption and new energy are expected to stop falling and rebound, taking over the baton of the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deng Hequan, a senior strategist of China Merchants Fund, believes that at present, stocks are still in the window of long structure. Generally speaking, 2023 may be a process of rising the bottom and moving up the market center. Industries with adverse market performance in this round of adjustment are expected to become the main line of investment throughout the year. At present, investors' policy expectations and geopolitical expectations are not high and sufficient, so there is little room for index adjustment. Secondly, the emergence of risk events will still change the expected attitude, distribution and aggravate the wait-and-see sentiment. Therefore, stocks that avoid pure theme speculation will gradually transition to growth stocks with expected upward revision and low risk characteristics in the next stage.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As for the market outlook, Boshi Fund believes that as the rate hike of the Federal Reserve gradually comes to an end, the external liquidity pressure faced by A shares gradually eases. As far as the global equity market is concerned, the macro environment faced by A shares is relatively better; At present, the P/E of Shanghai Composite Index and GEM Index is below the median level in the past three years, and the overall valuation is relatively low, which still has good medium and long-term investment value.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In May, the stock market fluctuated as a whole. HSBC Jinxin said that structural opportunities appeared frequently and the valuation of the value sector was repaired. At present, the economic expectation is gradually repaired, the valuation is still at a relatively low level, and the medium and long-term fund allocation is in a good range. With the repair of the valuation of low-valuation sectors, the market style may be more balanced.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400? Ninety percent of funds underperformed the broader market during the year. Who caught the bull market?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy it at 2800 and set it at 3400? Ninety percent of funds underperformed the broader market during the year. Who caught the bull market?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-14 18:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The market is rising, but the account is losing money!</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 5.93%, once rushing to 3,400 points, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has risen by 1.71%. Popular concept stocks such as artificial intelligence and Zhongte Estimate have risen gratifyingly. However, investors' feelings are quite different, and some netizens ridiculed, \"The market is up so heartbreaking! Buy it at 2800 and set it at 3400!\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Similarly, institutional investors failed to enjoy the \"win\" of 3,400 points. Insulated from the structural market, most funds don't perform as well as the market index, missing this round of market, and the performance of active equity funds is hardly optimistic.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wind data shows that during the year, nearly 90% of active equity funds performed less than the Shanghai Composite Index, and nearly 60% of funds even suffered losses. However, fund products with good performance are sought after by the people and have received a large number of subscriptions. In order to maintain the sustainability of good performance, these scarce high-quality funds control the management scale through purchase restrictions.</p><p><strong>90% of funds underperformed during the year</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Public Offering of Fund's performance during the year significantly underperformed various market indexes. Wind data shows that as of May 14th, the partial stock hybrid fund index composed of more than 3,600 partial stock hybrid fund indexes (including C shares) has dropped by 3.25% this year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Judging from the performance of Public Offering of Fund, it is not difficult to find that the overall profit-making effect of A-share investment this year is poor. Specifically, among the more than 4,200 active equity funds, more than 3,700 funds underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, accounting for nearly 90%, of which more than 2,400 funds suffered losses, accounting for nearly 60%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What depresses the holders is that when the Shanghai Composite Index stood at 3,400 points and reached a new high this year, many holders suffered obvious losses in their positions. As of May 10th, 16 active equity funds had suffered losses of more than 20% during the year, and more than 2,000 funds had even suffered losses for two consecutive years, among which many tens of billions of fund products had suffered losses of more than 20% for two consecutive years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth mentioning that, against the background of constant market fluctuations and large-scale losses in fund product performance, the number of Public Offering of Funds whose funds have expired and liquidated this year has reached 97, approaching the 100 mark, which is a historic small peak. Among them, equity funds have become the main force in liquidation, accounting for nearly 80%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Insufficient size is a common reason for fund liquidation. Some professionals said that in recent years, the market situation is not good, and the performance and scale of mini funds are difficult to improve, and the input and output are low. Fund managers have accelerated the survival of the fittest in the industry by liquidating mini funds.</p><p><strong>Scarce high-quality funds restrict purchase and control scale</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although the overall performance of Public Offering of Fund products is poor, there are still many funds that have resisted market fluctuations, stepped out of the independent trend, and continued to create value for holders.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the data of Wind, there were still 222 active equity funds with a performance increase of more than 10% during the year. For example, among the funds with large product scale, Dong Chen's Huatai Burui Fuli, Zhou Haidong's Chinese Business Advantage Industry, Hu Yibin's Huaan Media Internet and Xu Wenxing's China-Europe pension industry all performed well.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>During the market shock period, the net value of many active equity funds reached record highs. For example, the net value of 29 funds established for more than one year, such as Fan Kun's domestic demand-driven AB, Jiang Cheng's Zhongtai dividend preferred for one year, and Yang Xinxin's ICBC Selected Balance, set a new record this month.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, during the market downturn, some well-known fund managers did the opposite and controlled the management scale through purchase restrictions. Since May, funds managed by Bao Wuke, Lin Yingrui, Zhou Zhishuo and Zhou Haidong have started the purchase restriction mode. Many of these funds have continuously lowered the purchase limit amount.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the announcement, Bao Wu's manageable Invesco Great Wall value marginal flexible allocation mix has been limited to 2 million yuan since May 5th. The new blue-chip stock of Jianxin Potential managed by Zhou Zhishuo has been limited to 10,000 yuan since May 4th. The new trend of Chinese businessmen managed by Zhou Haidong prefers flexible allocation of hybrid funds with a purchase limit of 300,000 yuan since May 4th.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">During the market downturn, behind the fund purchase restriction is the holders'chase of high-quality funds. In the A-share market, the scarce high-quality funds attract a large number of holders to actively subscribe.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that when the A-share market fluctuates and adjusts, the inflow of funds is constantly accelerating. According to Wind data, as of May 10th, since May, the share of ETFs has increased by 24 billion shares, with a total share of 1.59 trillion shares and a total scale of 1.69 trillion yuan, of which the total share of equity ETFs has increased by 19.342 billion shares, with a continuous net inflow for four consecutive months.</p><p><strong>A-share market opportunities far outweigh risks</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The fund underperforms the index on a large scale, which is regarded as the ultimate interpretation of structural markets such as artificial intelligence and special estimation, and is not the normal state of the market. According to industry insiders, the opportunities in the medium-term dimension A-share market far outweigh the risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the beginning of this year, the market trend has been greatly differentiated. Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, said that with the arrival of the market in May, the style of the market has begun to change, and investors have begun to pay attention to high-quality leading stocks with excellent performance. Consumption and new energy are expected to stop falling and rebound, taking over the baton of the market.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Deng Hequan, a senior strategist of China Merchants Fund, believes that at present, stocks are still in the window of long structure. Generally speaking, 2023 may be a process of rising the bottom and moving up the market center. Industries with adverse market performance in this round of adjustment are expected to become the main line of investment throughout the year. At present, investors' policy expectations and geopolitical expectations are not high and sufficient, so there is little room for index adjustment. Secondly, the emergence of risk events will still change the expected attitude, distribution and aggravate the wait-and-see sentiment. Therefore, stocks that avoid pure theme speculation will gradually transition to growth stocks with expected upward revision and low risk characteristics in the next stage.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As for the market outlook, Boshi Fund believes that as the rate hike of the Federal Reserve gradually comes to an end, the external liquidity pressure faced by A shares gradually eases. As far as the global equity market is concerned, the macro environment faced by A shares is relatively better; At present, the P/E of Shanghai Composite Index and GEM Index is below the median level in the past three years, and the overall valuation is relatively low, which still has good medium and long-term investment value.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In May, the stock market fluctuated as a whole. HSBC Jinxin said that structural opportunities appeared frequently and the valuation of the value sector was repaired. At present, the economic expectation is gradually repaired, the valuation is still at a relatively low level, and the medium and long-term fund allocation is in a good range. With the repair of the valuation of low-valuation sectors, the market style may be more balanced.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154230640","content_text":"大盘在涨，账户却在亏损！开年以来，上证指数上涨5.93%，更是一度冲上3400点，沪深300指数上涨1.71%，人工智能、中特估等热门概念股涨势喜人。然而，投资者们感受却颇有不同，亦有网友调侃，“大盘涨得让人心痛！买在2800，套在3400！”。同样，机构投资者也未能享受到3400点的“胜利”。与结构性行情绝缘，大多数基金表现不及大盘指数，错失本轮行情，主动权益基金业绩难言乐观。Wind数据显示，年内近九成主动权益基金业绩不及上证指数，近六成基金业绩甚至出现亏损。不过，业绩表现好的基金产品受到基民追捧，获得大量申购，为了保持良好业绩的持续性，这些稀缺的绩优基金则通过限购控制管理规模。年内九成基金跑输大盘公募基金年内业绩大幅跑输各类大盘指数。Wind数据显示，截至5月14日，由3600余只偏股混合型基金指数（含C份额）构成的偏股混合型基金指数今年以来下跌3.25%。从公募基金业绩表现来看，不难发现，今年A股投资整体赚钱效应较差。具体来看，4200余只主动权益基金中，3700余只基金跑输上证指数，占比近九成，其中2400余只基金业绩亏损，占比近六成。让持有人郁闷的是，在上证指数站上3400点、创下年内新高时，不少持有人持仓亏损明显，截至5月10日，已有16只主动权益基金年内亏损超20%，2000余只基金甚至已经连续2年亏损，其中不乏百亿基金产品连续2年亏损超20%。值得一提的是，在市场不断波动、基金产品业绩出现大面积亏损的背景下，今年以来基金到期清盘的公募基金数量达到97只，逼近百只关口，为历史性小高峰，其中，权益类基金成为清盘主力军，占比近八成。规模不足是基金清盘常见的原因。有专业人士表示，近年市场行情不佳，迷你基金业绩、规模都很难有起色，投入产出较低，基金管理人通过清盘迷你基金加速行业优胜劣汰。稀缺绩优基金限购控规模虽然公募基金产品整体业绩表现不佳，不过仍有不少基金抵御住市场波动，走出独立走势，为持有人持续创造价值。Wind数据显示，年内仍有222只主动权益基金业绩涨幅超10%，如产品规模较大的基金中，董辰的华泰伯瑞富利、周海栋的华商优势行业、胡宜斌的华安媒体互联网、许文星的中欧养老产业均有不错业绩表现。市场震荡期，也有不少主动权益基金净值屡创新高，如范琨的融通内需驱动AB、姜诚的中泰红利优选一年持有、杨鑫鑫的工银精选平衡等29只成立一年以上的基金净值在本月刷新历史最高纪录。此外，在市场低迷期，一些绩优知名基金经理反其道而为之，通过限购控制管理规模。5月份以来，鲍无可、林英睿、周智硕和周海栋等管理的基金纷纷开启限购模式。其中不少基金不断下调限购金额。公告显示，鲍无可管理的景顺长城价值边际灵活配置混合自5月5日起，限购200万元。周智硕管理的建信潜力新蓝筹股票自5月4日起，限购1万元。周海栋管理的华商新趋势优选灵活配置混合基金自5月4日起限购30万元。市场低迷期，基金限购的背后则是持有人对绩优基金的追逐。在A股市场持续震荡，稀缺的绩优基金吸引大量持有人积极申购。值得注意的是，在A股市场震荡调整时，不断有资金在加速流入。Wind数据显示，截至5月10日，5月以来，ETF份额增加240亿份，总份额达到1.59万亿份，总规模达到1.69万亿元，其中股票型ETF总份额增长193.42亿份，连续4个月持续净流入。A股市场机会远大于风险基金大面积跑输指数，被认为是人工智能、中特估等结构性行情的极致演绎，并非市场常态。业内人士表示，中期维度A股市场机会远大于风险。今年以来市场的走势出现了比较大的分化，前海开源首席经济学家杨德龙表示，随着5月份行情的到来，市场的风格已经开始有所切换，投资者开始关注业绩优良的优质龙头股，消费、新能源有望止跌回升，接过行情的接力棒。招商基金资深策略分析师邓和权认为，目前股票仍处在结构做多的窗口，总体来看2023年或是一个底部抬升、市场中枢上移的过程。本轮调整中有逆市表现的行业或有望成为全年投资主线。当下投资者对政策预期、地缘预期均不高且较充分，因此指数调整空间不大。其次，风险事件的出现仍然会改变预期的态度、分布与加剧观望情绪。因此回避纯主题炒作的股票，下一阶段的机会或将逐渐过渡到预期有望上修、风险特征不高的成长股。对于后市，博时基金认为，随着美联储加息逐步进入尾声，A股面临的外围流动性压力逐步缓和，就全球权益市场来看，A股面临的宏观环境相对更优；且当前沪指与创业板指的市盈率处于近三年中位数以下水平，整体估值相对较低，依然具有不错的中长期投资价值。5月股市整体震荡，汇丰晋信表示，结构性机会频出，价值板块估值修复。目前经济预期逐步修复，估值仍在相对低位，中长期资金配置较好区间。伴随低估值板块估值修复，市场风格或将更加均衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947266985,"gmtCreate":1683201128247,"gmtModify":1683201132136,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947266985","repostId":"1185922715","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185922715","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1683200165,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185922715?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-04 19:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Not by \"moat\" alone! Buffett also has a big investment \"trick\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185922715","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。一年一度的“投资界春晚”、伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东会将在周六召开，这时候，普通投资者又会抛出灵魂一问：巴菲特","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends, and Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn about $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The annual \"Investment Spring Festival Gala\" and Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting will be held on Saturday. At this time, ordinary investors will ask their soul again:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Why is Buffett's stock picking so successful?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To this question, the Wall Street Journal has summarized two answers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the newspaper's article published Wednesday, one answer is unknown, namely Buffett's masterful ability to pick quality companies, and the other is far less remarkable-favouring dividend-paying stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Notice,<strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to an analysis of the company's announcements by Dow Jones Market Data,<strong>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn about $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nearly a fifth of that will come from Chevron, one of Berkshire's largest holdings,<strong>Chevron has increased its payout for 36 consecutive years.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, Dow Jones market data shows that Berkshire will receive more than $700 million each from Coca-Cola, Apple and Bank of America, more than $500 million from Kraft Heinz and about $363 million from American Express.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa8ab5d9e43dc821c224f2bc8d3a57b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\"That's what he likes: dividends and buybacks,\"</strong>Todd Finkle, a professor of entrepreneurship at Gonzaga University, said Finkle wrote a book about Buffett's career.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffet's adept at picking companies that have stood the test of time and improved their Dividend in many economic cycles, Finkle said. Over time, this both increases the value of Berkshire's equity portfolio and expands the company's ample cash reserves that can be used for its own business, as well as for acquisitions and share buybacks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Berkshire's most recent earnings report, the company ended 2022 with $128.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finkle said favoring dividend-paying stocks was not Buffett's \"secret weapon\", but it was part of it.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Take Buffett's favorite Coca-Cola, for example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1994, Berkshire Hathaway paid $1.3 billion for about 400 million shares of Coca-Cola it currently holds, and received $75 million in cash Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>That nearly tenfolded to $704 million in 2022, while the market value of Berkshire's stake in Coca-Cola has soared to $25 billion.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his annual letter to shareholders released earlier this year,<strong>Dividend grows every year and is as certain as a birthday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett said in his shareholder letter:</p><p>All Charlie (Munger) and I had to do was cash Coca-Cola's quarterly Dividend check.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffet and Munger expect that Coca-Cola will continue to improve its Dividend in the future. Coca-Cola said in February that it had approved a 61st consecutive increase in its annual Dividend.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That is to say, according to Finkle, Buffett's \"secret weapon\" of stock picking is actually \"picking high-quality companies + dividend-paying stocks\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The use of this \"secret weapon\" on American Express has achieved similar returns for Berkshire.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Berkshire completed the vast majority of its $1.3 billion purchase of American Express shares in 1995, and received $41 million in Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last year, Berkshire's stake in American Express was worth $22 billion, and it received $302 million in Dividend from the latter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"These Dividend gains, while satisfactory, are far from phenomenal,\" Buffet said in his letter. \"But what's important is that they've brought the share price up.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Generally speaking, investors tend to reinvest dividends into original stocks, but Berkshire has not reinvested dividends from Coca-Cola and American Express into these two stocks, and the higher shareholding ratio is due to the companies' share buybacks over the years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact,<strong>Berkshire hasn't overweighed Coca-Cola and American Express shares since the 1990s, and some speculate that may be because he hates overpaying for investments.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a 1983 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett said:</p><p>For investors, buying shares in an excellent company at an exorbitant price could offset the impact of the ensuing decade of favorable business development.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that Dividend, while able to provide steady income like bonds, still carries risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, if a company has a tight cash flow, it can cut or even suspend its dividend payments, and the suspension tends to cause the stock price to fall because investors often see it as a sign of a major financial crisis. Separately, when investors choose more expensive growth stocks, their Dividend also tend to underperform.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Not by \"moat\" alone! Buffett also has a big investment \"trick\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNot by \"moat\" alone! Buffett also has a big investment \"trick\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-05-04 19:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends, and Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn about $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The annual \"Investment Spring Festival Gala\" and Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting will be held on Saturday. At this time, ordinary investors will ask their soul again:</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Why is Buffett's stock picking so successful?</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">To this question, the Wall Street Journal has summarized two answers.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the newspaper's article published Wednesday, one answer is unknown, namely Buffett's masterful ability to pick quality companies, and the other is far less remarkable-favouring dividend-paying stocks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Notice,<strong>Most of the companies Buffett invests in pay dividends.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to an analysis of the company's announcements by Dow Jones Market Data,<strong>Berkshire Hathaway is expected to earn about $5.7 billion in cash from its stock portfolio this year.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nearly a fifth of that will come from Chevron, one of Berkshire's largest holdings,<strong>Chevron has increased its payout for 36 consecutive years.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In addition, Dow Jones market data shows that Berkshire will receive more than $700 million each from Coca-Cola, Apple and Bank of America, more than $500 million from Kraft Heinz and about $363 million from American Express.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fa8ab5d9e43dc821c224f2bc8d3a57b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"439\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>\"That's what he likes: dividends and buybacks,\"</strong>Todd Finkle, a professor of entrepreneurship at Gonzaga University, said Finkle wrote a book about Buffett's career.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffet's adept at picking companies that have stood the test of time and improved their Dividend in many economic cycles, Finkle said. Over time, this both increases the value of Berkshire's equity portfolio and expands the company's ample cash reserves that can be used for its own business, as well as for acquisitions and share buybacks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Berkshire's most recent earnings report, the company ended 2022 with $128.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finkle said favoring dividend-paying stocks was not Buffett's \"secret weapon\", but it was part of it.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Take Buffett's favorite Coca-Cola, for example.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1994, Berkshire Hathaway paid $1.3 billion for about 400 million shares of Coca-Cola it currently holds, and received $75 million in cash Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>That nearly tenfolded to $704 million in 2022, while the market value of Berkshire's stake in Coca-Cola has soared to $25 billion.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his annual letter to shareholders released earlier this year,<strong>Dividend grows every year and is as certain as a birthday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffett said in his shareholder letter:</p><p>All Charlie (Munger) and I had to do was cash Coca-Cola's quarterly Dividend check.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Buffet and Munger expect that Coca-Cola will continue to improve its Dividend in the future. Coca-Cola said in February that it had approved a 61st consecutive increase in its annual Dividend.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That is to say, according to Finkle, Buffett's \"secret weapon\" of stock picking is actually \"picking high-quality companies + dividend-paying stocks\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The use of this \"secret weapon\" on American Express has achieved similar returns for Berkshire.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Berkshire completed the vast majority of its $1.3 billion purchase of American Express shares in 1995, and received $41 million in Dividend that year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Last year, Berkshire's stake in American Express was worth $22 billion, and it received $302 million in Dividend from the latter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\"These Dividend gains, while satisfactory, are far from phenomenal,\" Buffet said in his letter. \"But what's important is that they've brought the share price up.\"</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Generally speaking, investors tend to reinvest dividends into original stocks, but Berkshire has not reinvested dividends from Coca-Cola and American Express into these two stocks, and the higher shareholding ratio is due to the companies' share buybacks over the years.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In fact,<strong>Berkshire hasn't overweighed Coca-Cola and American Express shares since the 1990s, and some speculate that may be because he hates overpaying for investments.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a 1983 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett said:</p><p>For investors, buying shares in an excellent company at an exorbitant price could offset the impact of the ensuing decade of favorable business development.<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is worth noting that Dividend, while able to provide steady income like bonds, still carries risks.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For example, if a company has a tight cash flow, it can cut or even suspend its dividend payments, and the suspension tends to cause the stock price to fall because investors often see it as a sign of a major financial crisis. Separately, when investors choose more expensive growth stocks, their Dividend also tend to underperform.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687974\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ecc14db02762fcb82cdbb76e654301","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687974","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185922715","content_text":"巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。一年一度的“投资界春晚”、伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东会将在周六召开，这时候，普通投资者又会抛出灵魂一问：巴菲特的选股为什么会如此成功？对于这个问题，《华尔街日报》总结了两个答案。根据该报周三发布的文章，其中一个答案无人不晓，即巴菲特出神入化的挑选优质公司的能力，另外一个则不起眼得多——青睐派息股。注意，巴菲特投资的大多数公司都派息。根据Dow Jones Market Data对公司公告的分析，预计今年伯克希尔·哈撒韦将从其股票投资组合中赚取约57亿美元现金。其中近五分之一将来自伯克希尔最大持股之一的雪佛龙，雪佛龙已连续36年增加派息。另外，道琼斯市场数据显示，伯克希尔还将从可口可乐、苹果和美国银行各拿到逾7亿美元，从卡夫亨氏公司拿到逾5亿美元，从美国运通公司拿到约3.63亿美元。 “这就是他喜欢的：派息和回购，”贡萨加大学创业学教授Todd Finkle说，Finkle曾写过一本关于巴菲特职业生涯的书。Finkle说，巴菲特擅长挑选在许多经济周期中经受住时间考验并提高股息的公司。随着时间推移，这既增加了伯克希尔股票投资组合的价值，也扩大了公司能够用于自身业务以及收购和股票回购的充足现金储备。根据伯克希尔最近的财报，公司到2022年年底拥有1286亿美元的现金和现金等价物。Finkle表示，青睐派息股并非巴菲特的“秘密武器”，但确是其中一部分。拿巴菲特最爱的可口可乐举例。1994年，伯克希尔·哈撒韦以13亿美元买入其目前持有的大约4亿股可口可乐股份，当年就获得了7500万美元的现金股息。2022年，这一数字翻了近十倍至7.04亿美元，而伯克希尔持有的可口可乐股份市值也已飙升至250亿美元。巴菲特在今年早些时候发布的年度致股东信中称，股息每年都会增长，就像生日一样确定无疑。巴菲特在股东信中表示：我和查理（芒格）要做的只是兑现可口可乐的季度股息支票。巴菲特和芒格预计，可口可乐未来将继续提高股息。可口可乐2月份表示，已批准连续第61次提高年度股息。也就是说，按照Finkle的说法，巴菲特选股的“秘密武器”其实是“挑选优质公司+派息股”。该“秘密武器”用在美国运通公司身上也为伯克希尔实现了类似的回报。伯克希尔1995年完成了以13亿美元买入美国运通股份的绝大部分交易，并在当年获得了4100万美元的股息。去年，伯克希尔所持美国运通股份价值为220亿美元，并从后者获得了3.02亿美元的股息。“这些股息收益固然令人满意，却远谈不上惊人，”巴菲特在他的信中表示。“但重要的是它们带来了股价的上涨。”一般来说，投资者倾向于将分红重新投资到原股票上，但伯克希尔并没有将可口可乐和美国运通的分红重新投资到这两只股票中，持股比例升高则是因为两家公司多年以来的股票回购。事实上，伯克希尔自1990年代以来就没有加码可口可乐和美国运通股票，有人推测，这可能是因为他讨厌为投资支付过高的价格。巴菲特在1983年写给伯克希尔股东的信中说：对于投资者来说，以过高的价格购买一家优秀公司的股票，可能会抵消随后十年有利的业务发展所产生的影响。值得注意的是，股息虽然能够像债券一样提供稳定的收入，但仍存在风险。比如，如果一家公司现金流紧张，它可以削减甚至是暂停派息，而暂停派息又往往会导致股价下跌，因为投资者经常其视为公司出现重大财务危机的信号。另外，当投资者选择较昂贵的成长股时，其股息也往往表现不佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947648720,"gmtCreate":1683116692460,"gmtModify":1683116695896,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947648720","repostId":"1166168941","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1166168941","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1683116159,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1166168941?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-05-03 20:15","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"U.S. ADP employment was 296,000 in April, biggest increase since July 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166168941","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月3日，美国4月ADP就业人数为29.6万人，为2022年7月以来最大增幅；预期14.8万人，前值14.5万人。ADP报告：4月金融服务业就业人数减少2.8万人，3月减少5.1万人；4月贸易/运输/","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, U.S. April ADP employment was 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022; It is expected to be 148,000, compared with the previous value of 145,000.</p><p>ADP Report: Employment in financial services decreased by 28,000 in April and 51,000 in March;</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate of trade/transportation/utility employees was 6.6% in April and 7.0% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of employees in the construction industry was 6.9% in April and 7.0% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of professional/commercial service employees was 6.3% in April and 6.4% in March;</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate of manufacturing employees was 6.2% in April and 6.5% in March;</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate of employees in the financial services industry was 6.7% in April and 6.8% in March.</p><p>After the data was released, the short-term fluctuation of U.S. stock futures was small, and the Nasdaq 100 index futures maintained an increase of about 0.3%. the US Dollar Index pulled up more than 10 points in the short term and is now at 101.67. Spot gold fell about $2 in the short term and is now trading at $2013.50/oz.</p><p><strong>Agency evaluation of ADP employment in the United States:</strong>Private U.S. businesses added 296,000 jobs in April, indicating a hiring boom despite a sharp slowdown in wage growth for people changing jobs.</p><p><strong>Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP:</strong>The slowdown in wage growth gives the clearest signal of current labor market conditions, with employers reining in wage growth while hiring heavily. Our data also shows that fewer people are changing jobs.</p><p><strong>Forexlive, a financial website, commented on the ADP data of the United States in April:</strong>That's a strong number and underscores why the Fed's job is so tough. They can't reasonably raise wages without undermining the banking system, but the addition of nearly 300,000 jobs shows that the pressure on wage growth hasn't gone away.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. ADP employment was 296,000 in April, biggest increase since July 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. ADP employment was 296,000 in April, biggest increase since July 2022\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-05-03 20:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On May 3, U.S. April ADP employment was 296,000, the largest increase since July 2022; It is expected to be 148,000, compared with the previous value of 145,000.</p><p>ADP Report: Employment in financial services decreased by 28,000 in April and 51,000 in March;</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate of trade/transportation/utility employees was 6.6% in April and 7.0% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of employees in the construction industry was 6.9% in April and 7.0% in March;</p><p>The median annual salary growth rate of professional/commercial service employees was 6.3% in April and 6.4% in March;</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate of manufacturing employees was 6.2% in April and 6.5% in March;</p><p>The median annual wage growth rate of employees in the financial services industry was 6.7% in April and 6.8% in March.</p><p>After the data was released, the short-term fluctuation of U.S. stock futures was small, and the Nasdaq 100 index futures maintained an increase of about 0.3%. the US Dollar Index pulled up more than 10 points in the short term and is now at 101.67. Spot gold fell about $2 in the short term and is now trading at $2013.50/oz.</p><p><strong>Agency evaluation of ADP employment in the United States:</strong>Private U.S. businesses added 296,000 jobs in April, indicating a hiring boom despite a sharp slowdown in wage growth for people changing jobs.</p><p><strong>Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP:</strong>The slowdown in wage growth gives the clearest signal of current labor market conditions, with employers reining in wage growth while hiring heavily. Our data also shows that fewer people are changing jobs.</p><p><strong>Forexlive, a financial website, commented on the ADP data of the United States in April:</strong>That's a strong number and underscores why the Fed's job is so tough. They can't reasonably raise wages without undermining the banking system, but the addition of nearly 300,000 jobs shows that the pressure on wage growth hasn't gone away.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166168941","content_text":"5月3日，美国4月ADP就业人数为29.6万人，为2022年7月以来最大增幅；预期14.8万人，前值14.5万人。ADP报告：4月金融服务业就业人数减少2.8万人，3月减少5.1万人；4月贸易/运输/公用事业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.6%，3月为7.0%；4月建筑业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.9%，3月为7.0%；4月专业/商业服务就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.3%，3月为6.4%；4月制造业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.2%，3月为6.5%；4月金融服务业就业人员薪资增速年率中值为6.7%，3月为6.8%。数据公布后，美股期货短线波动不大，纳斯达克100指数期货维持约0.3%的涨幅。美元指数短线拉升逾10点，现报101.67。现货黄金短线走低约2美元，现报2013.50美元/盎司。机构评美国ADP就业人数：美国私营企业4月份增加了29.6万个就业岗位，表明尽管换工作的人的工资增长大幅放缓，但仍出现了招聘热潮。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson：薪资增长放缓给出了当前劳动力市场状况的最清晰信号，雇主们在大举招聘的同时，也在控制薪资增长。我们的数据还显示，换工作的人越来越少。财经网站Forexlive评美国4月ADP数据：这是一个强劲的数字，也突显出美联储的工作为何如此艰难。他们不可能在不破坏银行体系的情况下合理地提高工资，但增加了近30万个工作岗位表明，工资增长的压力并没有消失。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947810126,"gmtCreate":1682859575365,"gmtModify":1682859578842,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947810126","repostId":"2331122664","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2331122664","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682828286,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2331122664?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-30 12:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How long can U.S. tech stocks be bullish? Just look at the earnings report of Apple and AMD next week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2331122664","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"后续财报可能“喜忧参半”，AI热潮带动芯片需求增加，AMD、高通财报指引可能好于预期，而苹果可能会公布其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩。经济衰退阴云笼罩下，微软、Meta等科技巨头扛住了压力，一季度业绩超","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The follow-up earnings report may be \"mixed\", the AI boom drives an increase in chip demand, AMD and Qualcomm's earnings guidance may be better than expected, and Apple may announce that its product division will shrink across the board for the first time in three years.</strong>Under the cloud of economic recession,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Technology giants such as Meta and Meta withstood the pressure, and their first-quarter results exceeded expectations.</p><p>Specifically, Meta's \"salted fish turned over\", and its revenue in the first quarter unexpectedly reversed three consecutive quarters; Microsoft's last quarter's results exceeded expectations, and its cloud business revenue maintained double-digit growth;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Search returned to growth in the first quarter, and the cloud business turned a profit.</p><p>In addition, earnings guidance is positive despite record losses in chip stocks. SK Hynix pointed out that the improvement of demand and the superposition of production reduction may boost the market, and the chip market will rebound in the second quarter. But on the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The warning of sluggish growth in its cloud computing business, and Cloudflare's move to cut its full-year revenue forecast, underscore the uncertainty of the overall economy.</p><p><strong>The unexpected earnings report eased the market's concerns about the slowdown in demand for technology products, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks.</strong>The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day gain since the first week of the year on Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closing up 2.76%, its biggest gain since Jan. 20.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822b80c8c4e84fc0602fb949d5d61757\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"614\"/></p><p><strong>Next week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And AMD will disclose the demand of more technology products, and its financial performance will become the key to whether technology stocks can continue to rebound. Here's the earnings look ahead:</strong></p><p>Tuesday: AMD will release earnings after U.S. stocks. The AI boom is expected to drive demand for chips in data centers, and the increased demand brought by it may offset the continued weakness in PC-side chip sales. With its customer and gaming segments still subdued, data centers will be key for AMD to generate revenue.</p><p>Wednesday: Qualcomm will announce results after U.S. stocks. Amid continued weakness in smartphone demand, investors will take a closer look at Qualcomm's quarterly guidance for signs of recovery and inventory replenishment from OEMs. Last month, chip giants Micron Technology and Infineon Technologies provided better-than-expected guidance, raising hopes for a rebound.</p><p>Thursday: Apple will report results after U.S. stocks. Apple is likely to report its product division shrinking across the board for the first time in three years, with iPad and iPhone sales down a year from before, a slowdown in Mac sales likely to be more pronounced, and weaker consumer spending on premium devices still weighing on overall growth. The impact of iPhone supply chain issues and foreign exchange headwinds will likely be shown in the earnings report, and Barclays believes the downturn will continue into the current quarter, especially as demand for the iPhone 14 Pro model slows.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How long can U.S. tech stocks be bullish? Just look at the earnings report of Apple and AMD next week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow long can U.S. tech stocks be bullish? Just look at the earnings report of Apple and AMD next week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-30 12:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>The follow-up earnings report may be \"mixed\", the AI boom drives an increase in chip demand, AMD and Qualcomm's earnings guidance may be better than expected, and Apple may announce that its product division will shrink across the board for the first time in three years.</strong>Under the cloud of economic recession,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>Technology giants such as Meta and Meta withstood the pressure, and their first-quarter results exceeded expectations.</p><p>Specifically, Meta's \"salted fish turned over\", and its revenue in the first quarter unexpectedly reversed three consecutive quarters; Microsoft's last quarter's results exceeded expectations, and its cloud business revenue maintained double-digit growth;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Search returned to growth in the first quarter, and the cloud business turned a profit.</p><p>In addition, earnings guidance is positive despite record losses in chip stocks. SK Hynix pointed out that the improvement of demand and the superposition of production reduction may boost the market, and the chip market will rebound in the second quarter. But on the other hand,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>The warning of sluggish growth in its cloud computing business, and Cloudflare's move to cut its full-year revenue forecast, underscore the uncertainty of the overall economy.</p><p><strong>The unexpected earnings report eased the market's concerns about the slowdown in demand for technology products, driving a rebound in U.S. stocks.</strong>The S&P 500 posted its biggest one-day gain since the first week of the year on Thursday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index closing up 2.76%, its biggest gain since Jan. 20.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/822b80c8c4e84fc0602fb949d5d61757\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"614\"/></p><p><strong>Next week,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And AMD will disclose the demand of more technology products, and its financial performance will become the key to whether technology stocks can continue to rebound. Here's the earnings look ahead:</strong></p><p>Tuesday: AMD will release earnings after U.S. stocks. The AI boom is expected to drive demand for chips in data centers, and the increased demand brought by it may offset the continued weakness in PC-side chip sales. With its customer and gaming segments still subdued, data centers will be key for AMD to generate revenue.</p><p>Wednesday: Qualcomm will announce results after U.S. stocks. Amid continued weakness in smartphone demand, investors will take a closer look at Qualcomm's quarterly guidance for signs of recovery and inventory replenishment from OEMs. Last month, chip giants Micron Technology and Infineon Technologies provided better-than-expected guidance, raising hopes for a rebound.</p><p>Thursday: Apple will report results after U.S. stocks. Apple is likely to report its product division shrinking across the board for the first time in three years, with iPad and iPhone sales down a year from before, a slowdown in Mac sales likely to be more pronounced, and weaker consumer spending on premium devices still weighing on overall growth. The impact of iPhone supply chain issues and foreign exchange headwinds will likely be shown in the earnings report, and Barclays believes the downturn will continue into the current quarter, especially as demand for the iPhone 14 Pro model slows.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687780\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/353f693b3cf73305d444a14080157632","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMD":"美国超微公司","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc."},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687780","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2331122664","content_text":"后续财报可能“喜忧参半”，AI热潮带动芯片需求增加，AMD、高通财报指引可能好于预期，而苹果可能会公布其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩。经济衰退阴云笼罩下，微软、Meta等科技巨头扛住了压力，一季度业绩超出预期。具体来看，Meta“咸鱼翻身”，一季度收入意外扭转三季连降；微软上季度业绩超预期，云业务营收维持两位数增长；谷歌一季度搜索重回增长，云业务扭亏为盈。此外，尽管芯片股业绩亏损创下纪录，但财报指引向好。SK海力士指出，需求改善叠加减产或将提振市场，芯片市场将在二季度出现反弹。不过，另一方面，亚马逊对其云计算业务增长乏力的警告，以及Cloudflare下调全年营收预期的举措，突显出整体经济的不确定性。超预期的财报缓解了市场对科技产品需求放缓的担忧，带动美股反弹。标普500指数在周四创下今年第一周以来的最大单日涨幅，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数收涨2.76%，创1月20日以来最大涨幅。下周，苹果、高通和AMD将披露更多科技产品的需求情况，其财报表现成为科技股能否继续反弹的关键。以下是财报前瞻：周二：AMD将在美股盘后发布财报。人工智能热潮预计将带动数据中心对芯片的需求，带来的需求增加可能会抵消PC端芯片销售的持续疲软。由于其客户和游戏部门仍然低迷，数据中心将是AMD获得收入的关键。周三：高通将在美股盘后公布业绩。在智能手机需求持续疲软的情况下，投资者将仔细研究高通的季度指引，以寻找复苏的迹象和OEM厂商的库存补充。上个月，芯片巨头美光科技和英飞凌科技提供了好于预期的指引，提升了反弹的希望。周四：苹果将在美股盘后公布业绩。苹果可能会报告其产品部门三年来首次全面萎缩，iPad和iPhone的销售一年较前下滑，Mac的销售放缓可能更加明显，消费者对高端设备的消费疲软仍然拖累整体增长。iPhone供应链问题和外汇阻力的影响可能会在财报中显示出来，巴克莱认为，这种不景气会延续到本季度，尤其是对iPhone 14 Pro机型的需求放缓。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GFS":1,"AMD":1,"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947804299,"gmtCreate":1682781170511,"gmtModify":1682781174113,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947804299","repostId":"1193243086","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193243086","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682757120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193243086?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-29 16:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"First Republic \"Whose Family Flowers\"? Report: FDIC asks bidders like JPMorgan to submit final offers by Sunday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193243086","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"作为吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，摩根大通的收购在监管方面存在障碍，但为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。岌岌可危的第一共和银行迎来了意向方：摩根大通、PNC都有可能成为最终收购者。据彭博今日报","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>As a large bank that takes in more than 10% of deposits, JPMorgan Chase's acquisition presents regulatory hurdles, but there is also the possibility of making an exception to save First Republic Bank.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The precarious First Republic Bank has ushered in the intended party: JPMorgan Chase and PNC are both likely to be the ultimate acquirer.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is asking banks including JPMorgan Chase and PNC Financial Services Group, Bloomberg reported today<strong>Submit your final offer for First Republic Bank by Sunday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regulator on Thursday sought interest from the banks, including an understanding of the banks' recommended offers and the estimated cost of First Republic Bank deposit insurance money, and on Friday invited both companies to participate in the next step of the bidding process.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg said the bidding process initiated by regulators could pave the way for a sale of First Republic Bank without going through a lengthy auction process like when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, the cliff-like decline in First Republic shares (down 97% this year) has pushed the market value to just $650 million,<strong>It may also provide a degree of feasibility for an acquisition.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c0b589ac7783879dc11eba6207dc3e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street News said earlier today that U.S. officials, including the FDIC, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, are coordinating meetings with other banks to facilitate a bailout plan for First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It comes after advisers to First Republic sought to get several banks involved in the bailout a month ago to buy its assets at above-market prices.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Though buyers buy-and-lose, these potential buyers have $30 billion in deposits with First Republic Bank that are uninsured. If they think First Republic Bank is about to go bankrupt, they could risk losing that money altogether.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, even if the federal government uses emergency powers to guarantee these deposits, large banks will need to replenish the FDIC with huge sums of money. As part of the deal, a number of banks that bailed out could get some form of equity.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Such a scheme would result in short-term losses for the banks that come to the rescue, but could cost less in the long run than letting First Republic Bank fail and be taken over by regulators.</strong></p><p><h2>Regulatory obstacles</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, while First Republic Bank has little market value left, regulatory rules may also add a deterrent to acquisition action.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because JPMorgan Chase is one of the few large banks in the nation that takes more than 10% of deposits,<strong>Under US regulations, the bank is not eligible to buy another institution that also takes deposits, which will make it bigger again.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, there is the possibility of an exception in order to save First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The FDIC would prefer to limit the solution to the private sector than the billions it would have to pay to take over a bank again. The agency had previously planned a special assessment of the banking sector to cover the costs of the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier, the media quoted sources saying that the most likely outcome of First Republic Bank is to be taken over by the FDIC. If First Republic Bank is taken over by regulators, the FDIC will still ask other banks to make possible takeover bids. However, sources said at the time that there was still hope of finding a solution that First Republic would not be taken over by the FDIC.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>First Republic \"Whose Family Flowers\"? Report: FDIC asks bidders like JPMorgan to submit final offers by Sunday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFirst Republic \"Whose Family Flowers\"? Report: FDIC asks bidders like JPMorgan to submit final offers by Sunday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-29 16:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>As a large bank that takes in more than 10% of deposits, JPMorgan Chase's acquisition presents regulatory hurdles, but there is also the possibility of making an exception to save First Republic Bank.</strong><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The precarious First Republic Bank has ushered in the intended party: JPMorgan Chase and PNC are both likely to be the ultimate acquirer.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is asking banks including JPMorgan Chase and PNC Financial Services Group, Bloomberg reported today<strong>Submit your final offer for First Republic Bank by Sunday.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regulator on Thursday sought interest from the banks, including an understanding of the banks' recommended offers and the estimated cost of First Republic Bank deposit insurance money, and on Friday invited both companies to participate in the next step of the bidding process.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bloomberg said the bidding process initiated by regulators could pave the way for a sale of First Republic Bank without going through a lengthy auction process like when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, the cliff-like decline in First Republic shares (down 97% this year) has pushed the market value to just $650 million,<strong>It may also provide a degree of feasibility for an acquisition.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c0b589ac7783879dc11eba6207dc3e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wall Street News said earlier today that U.S. officials, including the FDIC, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, are coordinating meetings with other banks to facilitate a bailout plan for First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It comes after advisers to First Republic sought to get several banks involved in the bailout a month ago to buy its assets at above-market prices.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Though buyers buy-and-lose, these potential buyers have $30 billion in deposits with First Republic Bank that are uninsured. If they think First Republic Bank is about to go bankrupt, they could risk losing that money altogether.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, even if the federal government uses emergency powers to guarantee these deposits, large banks will need to replenish the FDIC with huge sums of money. As part of the deal, a number of banks that bailed out could get some form of equity.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Such a scheme would result in short-term losses for the banks that come to the rescue, but could cost less in the long run than letting First Republic Bank fail and be taken over by regulators.</strong></p><p><h2>Regulatory obstacles</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, while First Republic Bank has little market value left, regulatory rules may also add a deterrent to acquisition action.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Because JPMorgan Chase is one of the few large banks in the nation that takes more than 10% of deposits,<strong>Under US regulations, the bank is not eligible to buy another institution that also takes deposits, which will make it bigger again.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Still, there is the possibility of an exception in order to save First Republic Bank.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The FDIC would prefer to limit the solution to the private sector than the billions it would have to pay to take over a bank again. The agency had previously planned a special assessment of the banking sector to cover the costs of the bankruptcies of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Earlier, the media quoted sources saying that the most likely outcome of First Republic Bank is to be taken over by the FDIC. If First Republic Bank is taken over by regulators, the FDIC will still ask other banks to make possible takeover bids. However, sources said at the time that there was still hope of finding a solution that First Republic would not be taken over by the FDIC.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687776\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc56982f828847b68443cfbde6a957b","relate_stocks":{"FRCB":"第一共和银行"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687776","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193243086","content_text":"作为吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，摩根大通的收购在监管方面存在障碍，但为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。岌岌可危的第一共和银行迎来了意向方：摩根大通、PNC都有可能成为最终收购者。据彭博今日报道，美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）要求包括摩根大通和PNC金融服务集团在内的银行在周日之前提交对第一共和银行的最终报价。监管机构于周四向各家银行征求了意向，包括了解这些银行建议的报价以及对第一共和银行存款保险金的预估成本，并于周五邀请了两家公司参加了下一步的竞标过程。彭博表示，监管机构启动的竞标程序可能为第一共和银行的出售铺平道路，而不会像硅谷银行和签字银行倒闭时经历漫长的拍卖流程。此外，第一共和银行股票的断崖式下跌（今年以来下跌97%）已经使市值跌至仅有6.5亿美元，这可能也为收购提供了一定程度上的可行性。华尔街见闻今日早些时候曾介绍，包括FDIC、美国财政部和美联储在内的美国官员们正在协调与其他银行的会议，以促成对第一共和银行的救助计划。此前，第一共和银行的顾问们寻求让数家参与了一个月前救助行动的银行以高于市价的价格购买其资产。尽管买家买入即亏，但这些潜在买家在第一共和银行的300亿美元存款没有保险。如果他们认为第一共和银行即将破产，他们可能会面临彻底失去这笔钱的风险。此外，即使联邦政府动用紧急权力为这些存款提供担保，大型银行也需要向FDIC补充巨额资金。作为交易的一部分，多家出手救助的银行可以获得某种形式的股权。上述方案将导致出手相救的银行短期内蒙受损失，但从长远来看，可能比让第一共和银行倒闭并被监管机构接管的成本更低。监管障碍然而，尽管第一共和银行的市值已经所剩无几，但监管规定也可能为收购行动增加阻碍。由于摩根大通是全美少数几家吸收存款超过10%的大型银行，根据美国监管规定，该行没有资格再收购一家同样吸收存款的机构，这将令其规模再一次壮大。尽管如此，为了拯救第一共和银行，也存在破例的可能性。相比FDIC再次接管一家银行所必须付出的数十亿成本，FDIC更希望将解决方案限制在私营部门。此前该机构已经计划对银行业进行特别评估，以支付硅谷银行和签名银行上个月破产的费用。此前媒体援引消息人士称，第一共和银行最有可能的结果就是被FDIC接管。如果第一共和银行被监管机构接管，FDIC仍将问询其他银行，让他们进行可能的收购投标。不过消息人士当时称，也仍有希望找到一个第一共和不被FDIC接管的解决方案。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FRCB":0.9,"FRC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2991,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947158054,"gmtCreate":1682696789878,"gmtModify":1682696793402,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947158054","repostId":"1149416254","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1149416254","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1682695765,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149416254?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-28 23:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Fed blames Silicon Valley Bank's collapse on management issues, poor regulation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149416254","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"硅谷银行的管理层和总监们未能管理好自家公司的众多风险。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Michael Barr, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Financial Regulatory Affairs: Blaming the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on corporate management and inappropriate regulation will consider improving liquidity and capital requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank's management and directors have failed to manage the many risks of their own companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank has had as many as 31 warnings, which is three times the industry average.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regulators have failed to put enough effort into ensuring that Silicon Valley Bank can handle many problems.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has advocated a less decisive approach to regulation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed's pandering stance and shifting stance hamper regulation (against institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Calls for \"stronger standards\" for a wider range of banking institutions.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Limiting bank buybacks and dividend payments may be the \"appropriate move\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More stringent standards for incentives should be considered.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More banking institutions should assess gains and losses and assets held for sale.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Reassess the system for banks with more than $100 billion in assets.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chairman Powell supported several of Barr's recommendations on institutions and regulation.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed blames Silicon Valley Bank's collapse on management issues, poor regulation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed blames Silicon Valley Bank's collapse on management issues, poor regulation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-28 23:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Michael Barr, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Financial Regulatory Affairs: Blaming the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on corporate management and inappropriate regulation will consider improving liquidity and capital requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank's management and directors have failed to manage the many risks of their own companies.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Silicon Valley Bank has had as many as 31 warnings, which is three times the industry average.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Regulators have failed to put enough effort into ensuring that Silicon Valley Bank can handle many problems.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has advocated a less decisive approach to regulation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The Fed's pandering stance and shifting stance hamper regulation (against institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank).</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Calls for \"stronger standards\" for a wider range of banking institutions.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Limiting bank buybacks and dividend payments may be the \"appropriate move\".</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More stringent standards for incentives should be considered.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">More banking institutions should assess gains and losses and assets held for sale.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Reassess the system for banks with more than $100 billion in assets.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Federal Reserve Chairman Powell supported several of Barr's recommendations on institutions and regulation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2455612\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9cd29490297b10c3f50798a61050f13","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/2455612","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1149416254","content_text":"美联储负责金融监管事务的副主席Michael Barr：将硅谷银行（SVB）倒闭归咎于公司管理和不适当的监管，将考虑改善流动性和资本要求。硅谷银行的管理层和总监们未能管理好自家公司的众多风险。硅谷银行曾出现多达31项警告，那是行业均值的三倍。在确保硅谷银行能够处置众多问题方面，监管人员们没能付出足够的努力。美联储理事会曾提倡实施不那么果断的监管方式。美联储的迎合姿态和立场转变妨碍到（针对硅谷银行等机构的）监管。呼吁针对更大范围的银行机构实施“更加强有力的标准”。限制银行回购和派息可能会是“适当之举”。应当考虑针对（银行业的）激励机制出台更加严苛的标准。更多的银行机构应当评估盈亏和待售资产。针对那些资产规模超过1000亿美元的银行重新评估制度。美联储主席鲍威尔支持Barr针对制度和监管的若干建议。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947321597,"gmtCreate":1682592027019,"gmtModify":1682592030942,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947321597","repostId":"1155302222","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155302222","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"提供即時金融資訊、行情、數據，旨在幫助投資者理解世界，做投資決策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎資訊","id":"1059071526","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682591962,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155302222?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-27 18:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"North-South Water Trends | Near the long holiday, the net purchase of North Water is less than 100 million, and 1.3 billion Dagu Guo Index ETF; Nanshui Buys Ping An of China","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155302222","media":"老虎資訊","summary":"北水今日淨入0.8億港元。 全日最多淨入個股為 快手-W，全日有1.49億港元淨買； 中国神华 錄1.24億港元淨入； 中芯国际 有1.13億港元淨入。全日最多淨沽是 恒生中国企业 ，金額爲13.37","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Beishui had a net income of HK$80 million today. The most net income stocks for the day were<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>With a net purchase of HK$149 million on the whole day;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>Recorded net income of HK$124 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>There was a net income of HK$113 million.</p><p>Maximum net put for the day is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>With an amount of HK$1,337 million.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8532a0f226e1c91f3d47f417d803a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p>Nanshui sold a net A shares of 167 million RMB today. The largest net purchase of stocks in the whole day was Ping An of China, with a net income of 505 million yuan today. The most net sell in the whole day was China Merchants Bank, which recorded a net sell of RMB 888 million in the whole day.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b389e78b013d6431761ec29758c2a110\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>North-South Water Trends | Near the long holiday, the net purchase of North Water is less than 100 million, and 1.3 billion Dagu Guo Index ETF; Nanshui Buys Ping An of China</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNorth-South Water Trends | Near the long holiday, the net purchase of North Water is less than 100 million, and 1.3 billion Dagu Guo Index ETF; Nanshui Buys Ping An of China\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1059071526\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎資訊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-27 18:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Beishui had a net income of HK$80 million today. The most net income stocks for the day were<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">Kuaishou-W</a>With a net purchase of HK$149 million on the whole day;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">China Shenhua</a>Recorded net income of HK$124 million;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">SMIC</a>There was a net income of HK$113 million.</p><p>Maximum net put for the day is<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02828\">Hang Seng China Enterprises</a>With an amount of HK$1,337 million.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8532a0f226e1c91f3d47f417d803a5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p>Nanshui sold a net A shares of 167 million RMB today. The largest net purchase of stocks in the whole day was Ping An of China, with a net income of 505 million yuan today. The most net sell in the whole day was China Merchants Bank, which recorded a net sell of RMB 888 million in the whole day.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b389e78b013d6431761ec29758c2a110\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"2799\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1ae3d0f75bebef8011736e9031acae","relate_stocks":{"601318":"中国平安","01088":"中国神华","02828":"恒生中国企业","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","02318":"中国平安","HSCEI":"国企指数","01024":"快手-W","00700":"腾讯控股","00981":"中芯国际"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155302222","content_text":"北水今日淨入0.8億港元。 全日最多淨入個股為 快手-W，全日有1.49億港元淨買； 中国神华 錄1.24億港元淨入； 中芯国际 有1.13億港元淨入。全日最多淨沽是 恒生中国企业 ，金額爲13.37億港元。南水今日淨賣出A股1.67億人民幣。全日最多淨買個股為中國平安 ，今日有5.05億人民幣淨入。全日最多淨沽是招商銀行 ，全日錄8.88億人民幣淨賣。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"601318":0.9,"01088":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"02828":0.9,"02318":0.9,"00700":0.9,"00981":0.9,"01024":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947993001,"gmtCreate":1682424627104,"gmtModify":1682424630637,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947993001","repostId":"1181662804","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944761387,"gmtCreate":1682162256950,"gmtModify":1682162260428,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944761387","repostId":"1144371077","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1144371077","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1682132507,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144371077?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-22 11:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Earnings Preview | Is there room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144371077","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：G","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue for Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure. The main challenge for the company is the integration of AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) will release its first-quarter earnings results on Tuesday, April 25th after U.S. stocks bell.</p><p><strong>Five things to know ahead of Alphabet's Q1 earnings:</strong></p><p><ul><li>The consensus estimate of Wall Street analysts is for earnings of $1.08 per share on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from Q4 2022 and 17% from Q1 2022.</p><p></li><li>Estimates for sales indicate a 10% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and a flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>In the last four quarters, the company has missed earnings and revenue estimates. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Alphabet's earnings forecast is below 11%.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor Q4 2022 results and 9.1% after poor Q3 2022 results.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Take on Alphabet's earnings</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue for Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly missing the $1.08 Wall Street forecast. Experts believe the first quarter could show an improvement in costs for Alphabet.</p><p>The main challenge for the company is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so the results discussion of future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will be a more defensive self-help stock among internet groups in 2023, with higher relative earnings stability due to spending flexibility, high profit margins, and the possibility of backing shares through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's Stock Performance and Valuation</strong></p><p>At $105 a share, Alphabet is up more than 19% year-to-date at the time of writing, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>Shares are nearly 30% below their all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, shares rose 17.5%, marking their strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to professional data from Benzinga, the stock has a forward P/E of 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Preview | Is there room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Preview | Is there room for disappointment in Google's performance? But AI guidance will be key\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-22 11:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue for Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure. The main challenge for the company is the integration of AI into search.</strong>Internet search engine giant<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Parent company Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOG) will release its first-quarter earnings results on Tuesday, April 25th after U.S. stocks bell.</p><p><strong>Five things to know ahead of Alphabet's Q1 earnings:</strong></p><p><ul><li>The consensus estimate of Wall Street analysts is for earnings of $1.08 per share on revenue of $68.87 billion for the quarter.</p><p></li><li>Revenue is expected to decline 9% from Q4 2022 and 17% from Q1 2022.</p><p></li><li>Estimates for sales indicate a 10% decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and a flat performance compared to the first quarter of 2022.</p><p></li><li>In the last four quarters, the company has missed earnings and revenue estimates. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Alphabet's earnings forecast is below 11%.</p><p></li><li>Alphabet shares fell 2.75% after poor Q4 2022 results and 9.1% after poor Q3 2022 results.</p><p></li></ul><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Take on Alphabet's earnings</strong></p><p>Bank of America analysts predict online revenue for Google search and cloud services, but YouTube will come under pressure.</p><p>Overall, Bank of America expects earnings of $1.07 per share, slightly missing the $1.08 Wall Street forecast. Experts believe the first quarter could show an improvement in costs for Alphabet.</p><p>The main challenge for the company is the integration of AI into search, both in terms of timing and impact, so the results discussion of future plans and prospects may constitute the most important stock driver. According to Bank of America, Alphabet will be a more defensive self-help stock among internet groups in 2023, with higher relative earnings stability due to spending flexibility, high profit margins, and the possibility of backing shares through buybacks.</p><p><strong>Alphabet's Stock Performance and Valuation</strong></p><p>At $105 a share, Alphabet is up more than 19% year-to-date at the time of writing, outperforming the S&P 500's 7.7% gain.</p><p>Shares are nearly 30% below their all-time high of $151 set in February 2022.</p><p>In the first quarter of 2023, shares rose 17.5%, marking their strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2021.</p><p>According to professional data from Benzinga, the stock has a forward P/E of 19.45.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d25e1a14780c2d1e6ec5ecf96395d05","relate_stocks":{"SG9999014914.USD":"UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH (USDHDG) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4507":"流媒体概念","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","GOOG":"谷歌","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","GOOGL":"谷歌A","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","SG9999017495.SGD":"UGDP UNITED GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"B\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144371077","content_text":"美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中。互联网搜索引擎巨头谷歌母公司Alphabet Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）将于 4 月 25 日（周二）美股盘后发布其第一季度财报业绩。在 Alphabet 第一季度财报发布前，需要了解的五件事：华尔街分析师一致预计本季度每股收益为 1.08 美元，收入为 688.7 亿美元。预计收入将比 2022 年第四季度下降 9%，比 2022 年第一季度下降 17%。对销售额的估计表明，与 2022 年第四季度相比下降 10%，与 2022 年第一季度相比表现持平。在过去的四个季度中，该公司的收益和收入均未达到预期。在 2022 年第四季度，Alphabet 的盈利预测低于 11%。Alphabet 股价在 2022 年第四季度业绩不佳后下跌 2.75%，在 2022 年第三季度业绩不佳后下跌 9.1%。美国银行对 Alphabet 财报的看法美国银行分析师预测谷歌搜索和云服务将获得在线收入，但 YouTube 将面临压力。总体而言，美国银行预计每股收益为 1.07 美元，略低于华尔街预测的 1.08 美元。专家认为，第一季度可能会显示出 Alphabet 的成本有所改善。该公司面临的主要挑战是 AI 整合到搜索中，无论在时间还是在影响方面，因此对未来计划和前景的结果讨论可能构成最重要的股票驱动因素。据美国银行称，到 2023 年，Alphabet 将成为互联网集团中更具防御性的自助股票，由于支出灵活性、高利润率以及通过回购支持股票的可能性，其相对盈利稳定性更高。Alphabet 的股票表现和估值Alphabet 的股价为每股 105 美元，截至撰写本文时，今年迄今上涨逾19%，表现优于标准普尔 500 指数 7.7% 的涨幅。股价比 2022 年 2 月创下的历史高点 151 美元低了近 30%。2023 年第一季度，股价上涨 17.5%，创下 2021 年第二季度以来最强劲的季度表现。根据Benzinga 的专业数据，该股票的远期市盈率为 19.45 。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944412752,"gmtCreate":1682005113676,"gmtModify":1682005116941,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944412752","repostId":"2328194710","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2328194710","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1682004537,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2328194710?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-20 23:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"A single-season jump of $11.4 billion! U.S. junk bond growth returns to its highs under recession pressure","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2328194710","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着经济衰退缓慢逼近，企业债券正以2020年以来最快的速度被降为垃圾债。4月19日周三，巴克莱策略师 Dominique Toublan 等的最新研究显示，今年第一季度，共有114亿美元的债券被降级为","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Corporate bonds are being downgraded to junk debt at the fastest pace since 2020 as a recession slowly approaches.</p><p>On Wednesday, April 19, the latest research by Barclays strategist Dominique Toublan and others showed that,<strong>A total of $11.4 billion of bonds were downgraded to junk in the first quarter of this year, a figure that accounted for about 60% of the bonds downgraded to junk in all of 2022</strong>。 The bank estimates that bond trading volume for the full year is on track to reach its highest level since 2020, when the outbreak triggered a massive wave of bond downgrades.</p><p>That reflects the pressure on many businesses as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. With fewer investors eligible to buy their bonds, those whose ratings are downgraded to junk will face additional financing expenses.</p><p>Barclays expects,<strong>The pace of increase in junk-rated bonds will accelerate in the second half of the year as slowing economic growth puts additional pressure on borrowers.</strong>Bonds on the scale of $60 billion to $80 billion are expected to be downgraded to junk this year, and these bonds are known as \"fallen angels\".</p><p>Toublan said in an interview:</p><p>The drop from investment grade to junk grade indicates that the company's credit profile has deteriorated. The question is, is this just a company problem, or is it a more general phenomenon? But Barclays added,<strong>While more businesses are being downgraded to junk grade, there may also be more bonds being upgraded to investment grade</strong>。 The bank expects between $60 billion and $70 billion to come from these \"rising stars\" this year, which would be the second-highest annual total on record. Only in the second half of the year is the pace of upgrades likely to slow.</p><p>Among the downgraded bonds, Nissan contributed a significant share.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>Ratings firms downgraded it to speculative in March. Downgraded companies also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>And Axos Financial, Inc.</p><p>While trading volumes on these downgraded bonds are on the rise, the downgrade still appears to be relatively modest. Barclays said the bank's forecast of $60 billion to $80 billion in downgrades accounted for about 2.2% of BBB-rated corporate bonds, compared with an average of nearly 6.6% since 2000.</p><p>According to the analysis,<strong>The previous banking crisis may have slashed lending activity by banks. Total loans on bank books have fallen by about $95 billion since mid-March, according to the Federal Reserve. The credit environment is generally tightening, which tends to drive more downgrades.</strong></p><p>Declining profits could eat into corporate borrowers' profits and could hurt those of issuers more sensitive to economic changes, Fitch Ratings wrote in a note Monday. The agency expects the U.S. to start entering a recession by the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>Fitch said:</p><p>Monetary tightening and slower economic growth will have a negative impact on demand, while easing inflation will reduce pricing power, resulting in slower revenue growth for some U.S. companies and a lessened ability to protect profit margins without cutting costs.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A single-season jump of $11.4 billion! U.S. junk bond growth returns to its highs under recession pressure</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA single-season jump of $11.4 billion! U.S. junk bond growth returns to its highs under recession pressure\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-20 23:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Corporate bonds are being downgraded to junk debt at the fastest pace since 2020 as a recession slowly approaches.</p><p>On Wednesday, April 19, the latest research by Barclays strategist Dominique Toublan and others showed that,<strong>A total of $11.4 billion of bonds were downgraded to junk in the first quarter of this year, a figure that accounted for about 60% of the bonds downgraded to junk in all of 2022</strong>。 The bank estimates that bond trading volume for the full year is on track to reach its highest level since 2020, when the outbreak triggered a massive wave of bond downgrades.</p><p>That reflects the pressure on many businesses as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive rate hike cycle in decades. With fewer investors eligible to buy their bonds, those whose ratings are downgraded to junk will face additional financing expenses.</p><p>Barclays expects,<strong>The pace of increase in junk-rated bonds will accelerate in the second half of the year as slowing economic growth puts additional pressure on borrowers.</strong>Bonds on the scale of $60 billion to $80 billion are expected to be downgraded to junk this year, and these bonds are known as \"fallen angels\".</p><p>Toublan said in an interview:</p><p>The drop from investment grade to junk grade indicates that the company's credit profile has deteriorated. The question is, is this just a company problem, or is it a more general phenomenon? But Barclays added,<strong>While more businesses are being downgraded to junk grade, there may also be more bonds being upgraded to investment grade</strong>。 The bank expects between $60 billion and $70 billion to come from these \"rising stars\" this year, which would be the second-highest annual total on record. Only in the second half of the year is the pace of upgrades likely to slow.</p><p>Among the downgraded bonds, Nissan contributed a significant share.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>Ratings firms downgraded it to speculative in March. Downgraded companies also include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>And Axos Financial, Inc.</p><p>While trading volumes on these downgraded bonds are on the rise, the downgrade still appears to be relatively modest. Barclays said the bank's forecast of $60 billion to $80 billion in downgrades accounted for about 2.2% of BBB-rated corporate bonds, compared with an average of nearly 6.6% since 2000.</p><p>According to the analysis,<strong>The previous banking crisis may have slashed lending activity by banks. Total loans on bank books have fallen by about $95 billion since mid-March, according to the Federal Reserve. The credit environment is generally tightening, which tends to drive more downgrades.</strong></p><p>Declining profits could eat into corporate borrowers' profits and could hurt those of issuers more sensitive to economic changes, Fitch Ratings wrote in a note Monday. The agency expects the U.S. to start entering a recession by the end of the third quarter of this year.</p><p>Fitch said:</p><p>Monetary tightening and slower economic growth will have a negative impact on demand, while easing inflation will reduce pricing power, resulting in slower revenue growth for some U.S. companies and a lessened ability to protect profit margins without cutting costs.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687055\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e77c16b21cd06df0b4a3ec9f76087f1","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3687055","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2328194710","content_text":"随着经济衰退缓慢逼近，企业债券正以2020年以来最快的速度被降为垃圾债。4月19日周三，巴克莱策略师 Dominique Toublan 等的最新研究显示，今年第一季度，共有114亿美元的债券被降级为垃圾债券，这一数字约占2022年全年被降为垃圾级债券的60%。该行估计，今年全年的债券交易量有望达到自2020年以来的最高水平，当时疫情爆发引发了大规模的债券降级浪潮。这反映出，随着美联储开启数十年来最激进的加息周期，许多企业正面临着压力。由于有资格购买其债券的投资者数量减少，那些评级被下调至垃圾级的企业将面临额外的融资支出。巴克莱预计，随着经济增长放缓给借款人带来了额外的压力，垃圾级债券的增加速度将在今年下半年加快。预计今年将有600亿至800亿美元规模的债券将被降至垃圾级，这些债券被称为“堕落天使”。Toublan 在接受采访时表示：从投资级降至垃圾级，表明该公司的信用状况恶化。问题是，这只是一家公司的问题，还是一个更普遍的现象？但巴克莱补充称，尽管越来越多的企业被降至垃圾级，但可能也会有越来越多的债券被调高至投资级。该行预计，今年将有600亿至700亿美元来自这些“新星”，这将是有纪录以来第二高的年度总额。到今年下半年，评级上调的步伐才可能会放缓。在评级被下调的债券中，日产汽车贡献了相当一部分的份额。标普全球评级公司在今年3月将其下调至了投机级。评级被下调的企业还包括第一共和银行和Axos Financial公司。虽然有关这些被降级债券的交易量正在上升，但评级的下调似乎仍然是相对温和的。巴克莱称，该行预测的600亿至800亿美元的评级下调约占BBB级公司债券的2.2%，而2000年以来的平均水平接近6.6%。分析认为，此前的银行业危机可能会大幅削减银行的放贷活动。美联储的数据显示，自3月中旬以来，银行账面上的贷款总额已经减少了约950亿美元。信贷环境普遍趋紧，这往往会推动更多的评级下调。惠誉评级公司周一在一份报告中写道，利润下降可能会侵蚀企业借款人的利润，并可能损害对经济变化更为敏感的发行人的利润。该机构预计美国将在今年第三季度末开始步入经济衰退。惠誉表示：货币紧缩和经济增长放缓将对需求产生负面影响，而通胀缓解将降低定价能力，导致一些美国公司的收入增长放缓，在没有削减成本的情况下保护利润率的能力有所减弱。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944593405,"gmtCreate":1681905098408,"gmtModify":1681905102384,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944593405","repostId":"1140494965","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140494965","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681903948,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140494965?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-19 19:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley: Q1 Revenue Beats Estimates, But Total Deposit Amount Misses Estimates","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140494965","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月19日，摩根士丹利盘前发布财报，财报显示：第一季度净营收145.2亿美元，预估140.7亿美元。摩根士丹利第一季度每股收益1.70美元。第一季度股票销售和交易业务营收27.3亿美元，预估28.6亿","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On April 19th, Morgan Stanley released its financial report before the market. The financial report showed that the net revenue in the first quarter was USD 14.52 billion, with an estimated USD 14.07 billion.</p><p>Morgan Stanley earned $1.70 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Revenue from the stock sales and trading business in the first quarter was $2.73 billion, compared to an estimate of $2.86 billion.</p><p>Fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities business sales and trading revenue for the first quarter was $2.58 billion, compared to an estimate of $2.42 billion.</p><p>Noninterest expense in the first quarter was $10.52 billion, compared to an estimate of $10.12 billion.</p><p>First-quarter compensation expenses were $6.41 billion, compared to an estimate of $6.07 billion.</p><p>Non-compensation expenses were $4.11 billion in the first quarter, compared to an estimate of $4.09 billion.</p><p>Assets under management were $1.36 trillion in the first quarter, compared to an estimate of $1.33 trillion.</p><p>Total deposits in the first quarter were $347.52 billion, compared to market forecasts of $352.17 billion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3df79d2ba857cda7f345e7aa39630a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1158\" tg-height=\"728\"/></p><p>Morgan Stanley fell more than 2% premarket after the earnings release.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cb9299a351c7228a81668c17136ca8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Q1 Revenue Beats Estimates, But Total Deposit Amount Misses Estimates</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Q1 Revenue Beats Estimates, But Total Deposit Amount Misses Estimates\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-19 19:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On April 19th, Morgan Stanley released its financial report before the market. The financial report showed that the net revenue in the first quarter was USD 14.52 billion, with an estimated USD 14.07 billion.</p><p>Morgan Stanley earned $1.70 per share in the first quarter.</p><p>Revenue from the stock sales and trading business in the first quarter was $2.73 billion, compared to an estimate of $2.86 billion.</p><p>Fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities business sales and trading revenue for the first quarter was $2.58 billion, compared to an estimate of $2.42 billion.</p><p>Noninterest expense in the first quarter was $10.52 billion, compared to an estimate of $10.12 billion.</p><p>First-quarter compensation expenses were $6.41 billion, compared to an estimate of $6.07 billion.</p><p>Non-compensation expenses were $4.11 billion in the first quarter, compared to an estimate of $4.09 billion.</p><p>Assets under management were $1.36 trillion in the first quarter, compared to an estimate of $1.33 trillion.</p><p>Total deposits in the first quarter were $347.52 billion, compared to market forecasts of $352.17 billion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b3df79d2ba857cda7f345e7aa39630a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1158\" tg-height=\"728\"/></p><p>Morgan Stanley fell more than 2% premarket after the earnings release.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cb9299a351c7228a81668c17136ca8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140494965","content_text":"4月19日，摩根士丹利盘前发布财报，财报显示：第一季度净营收145.2亿美元，预估140.7亿美元。摩根士丹利第一季度每股收益1.70美元。第一季度股票销售和交易业务营收27.3亿美元，预估28.6亿美元。第一季度固定收益、外汇和大宗商品业务销售和交易营收25.8亿美元，预估24.2亿美元。第一季度非利息支出105.2亿美元，预估101.2亿美元。第一季度薪酬费用64.1亿美元，预估60.7亿美元。第一季度非薪酬支出41.1亿美元，预估40.9亿美元。第一季度管理资产1.36万亿美元，预估1.33万亿美元。第一季度总存款为3475.2亿美元，市场预测为3521.7亿美元。财报发布后，摩根士丹利盘前跌超2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944695281,"gmtCreate":1681818272043,"gmtModify":1681818275680,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944695281","repostId":"1125440795","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1125440795","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681817436,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125440795?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-18 19:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Lockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue of $15.1 billion slightly exceeded expectations","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125440795","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"Q1 净利润（亿美元）： 17，预期：15.36，前值：17.33。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Lockheed Martin's Q1 2023 revenue (USD million): 151, expected: 150.28, previous value: 149.64.</p><p>First-quarter net income (USD billion): 17, expected: 15.36, previous value: 17.33.</p><p>Q1 EPS: $6.61, Expected: $6.057, Previous: $6.44.</p><p>Lockheed Martin's share price rose rapidly in the short term before the market, turning from decline to rise.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcce1a714321ac406ff7f02dc397b6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1383\" tg-height=\"764\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue of $15.1 billion slightly exceeded expectations</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLockheed Martin's first-quarter revenue of $15.1 billion slightly exceeded expectations\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-18 19:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Lockheed Martin's Q1 2023 revenue (USD million): 151, expected: 150.28, previous value: 149.64.</p><p>First-quarter net income (USD billion): 17, expected: 15.36, previous value: 17.33.</p><p>Q1 EPS: $6.61, Expected: $6.057, Previous: $6.44.</p><p>Lockheed Martin's share price rose rapidly in the short term before the market, turning from decline to rise.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bcce1a714321ac406ff7f02dc397b6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1383\" tg-height=\"764\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c278da3656f121b0bf93d422677e9201","relate_stocks":{"LMT":"洛克希德马丁"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125440795","content_text":"洛克希德马丁2023年一季度营收（亿美元）： 151，预期：150.28，前值：149.64。一季度净利润（亿美元）： 17，预期：15.36，前值：17.33。一季度EPS： $6.61，预期：$6.057，前值：$6.44。洛克希德马丁盘前股价短线快速拉升，由跌转涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LMT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944343478,"gmtCreate":1681723720494,"gmtModify":1681723725217,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944343478","repostId":"1135442671","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135442671","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1681206474,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135442671?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-11 17:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Financial Report Preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend be eaten, and will it \"backlash\" itself","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135442671","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"特斯拉频繁的降价行动令分析人士更加关注其第一季度的毛利率。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Will release its first quarter 2023 earnings results for the year ended March 31 after the market closes on April 19, Eastern Time (April 20, Beijing time).</p><p>In the past 2022, Tesla delivered a total of 1.31 million vehicles globally, an increase of 40% compared with 2021; Production was 1.37 million units, up 47% year-over-year, but neither of them met the 50% annual growth target.</p><p><strong>The consensus now expects the company to report revenue of $23.46 billion, adjusted profit of $3.057 billion and earnings per share of $0.86 for the first quarter.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A stronger-than-expected result would indicate Tesla's \"cost advantage position\" and potential input cost declines, but if Q1 results are flat or lower than expected, it would imply overcapacity or product aging, putting its stock price at risk. Particularly important, frequent price cuts have led analysts to pay more attention to the EV maker's gross profit margin in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f14e3cd0b9cf7c3134cc1be1537b19\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>Q1 Deliveries: Is the Price Reduction Effect Sustainable?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla Delivered Worldwide in Q1 2023<strong>More than 422,000 vehicles, breaking the single-quarter delivery record.</strong></p><p>According to the report, in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla produced 440,808 electric vehicles worldwide and delivered 422,875 units. Of these, 19,437 units of the Model S and Model X were built and 10,695 delivered; Model 3 and Model Y were produced at 421,371 units and delivered at 412,180 units.</p><p>Compared to the same period last year, Tesla's first-quarter total production increased 44% year-over-year and deliveries increased 36% year-over-year, which is 6.69 times the volume delivered in the same period in 2019.</p><p>According to the delivery report, Tesla will continue the transition to \"more balanced volume production for different regional markets\", including Model S/X models that are being shipped to the EMEA region (Europe/Middle East/Africa) as well as Asia Pacific.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206ca2a9f22472a9e476b926b9c14c33\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk's full-year sales target of 1.8-2 million vehicles was not poorly completed in the first quarter. However, it cannot be ignored that in the Chinese market, the core position of its production and sales, this year's automobile market is ushering in more fierce competition, and Tesla also needs to respond more flexibly.</p><p>Industry analysts believe that,<strong>Tesla delivery growth is closely tied to price cuts at the beginning of the year, and the direct reason for the price cuts is to stimulate demand.</strong>In January, Tesla lowered the prices of models on sale in both China and the global market, with an overall drop of 9%.</p><p>On April 6, local time, Tesla again lowered the prices of its U.S. -based models, cutting prices on all models by 2% to 6%, marking the automaker's fifth price cut since January, with the most significant drop on high-end models. The more popular Model Y also saw a 4% price cut to $52,990.</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also announced that it will adjust the selling prices of Model 3 and Model Y in Hong Kong on April 15th. The biggest price adjustment reduction is the Model 3 Performance, by as much as 14.7%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, Tesla launched a price war in the United States, which analysts saw as a positive signal of the company's efforts to boost sales.</p><p>According to Tesla's goal, it will increase production by more than 10 times to 20 million vehicles/year by 2030. However, at present, Tesla's Model 3/Y and other models on sale have the longest sales cycle of 6-7 years, and there has been no mid-term facelift. With the intensification of market competition, Tesla's products are facing more severe challenges.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ed93f64aaf0be3e65df77daffd77f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><p><strong>Positive Factors: New Low-Class Models Are On The Way</strong></p><p>Recently, there has been market news that Tesla is planning a grand production capacity map for its new low-priced models. \"This low-priced Model is a small Model Y.\" The source said,<strong>\"Tesla is building an annual capacity plan for it of up to 4 million vehicles.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is understood that this is an early capacity strategy, and Tesla is passing on to the industrial chain:<strong>The production capacity of 4 million vehicles will be distributed in factories around the world, of which the Gigafactory in North America will bear 2 million vehicles, and the Berlin factory in Germany and the Shanghai Lingang factory will bear 1 million vehicles respectively. Among the North American factories, the Monterey factory in Mexico will be the main production capacity of this new model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this year's investor day, Tesla revealed the Monterey factory in Mexico. Since then, media reports said that the factory covers nearly 4,200 acres, which is 68% more than the 2,500 acres of the Texas factory and about 20 times the size of the Shanghai factory.</p><p>If a Tesla sells for 150,000 yuan, it may obviously set off another sales frenzy.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d883a08243beba49992da0458236253e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p><strong>Unfavourable Factors: Regenerative Change of U.S. Electric Vehicle Tax Rebate Policy</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS unveiled the details of new EV tax credits, and automakers found that unless a workaround is found, the outcome is likely:<strong>The tax credits enjoyed by electric vehicles will be significantly reduced from April 18 when the new regime comes into force.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ford said its Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit will be eligible for an EV tax credit of $3,750 starting April 18, down from the current $7,500, after losing half of the tax credit for not meeting domestic battery procurement requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From April 18, of the $7,500 tax credit<strong>Half of that will depend on whether battery components are primarily made in North America</strong>，<strong>The other half depends on whether battery minerals are primarily sourced from America's free-trade partners</strong>。 In the next five years, if you want to qualify for tax credits, the proportion of these components and minerals in automobile batteries will further increase from 50% and 40% respectively.</p><p><strong>Major Bank Ratings</strong></p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities: Outperform Rating, $225 Price Target</strong></p><p>Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, a well-known Tesla bull analyst, maintains an \"outperform\" rating and a $225 price target on Tesla stock. He said the Model Y/3 price cuts announced in early 2023 \"paid a good dividend\" for Tesla, with demand seemingly stable despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether Tesla's vehicle gross profit margin can exceed 20% remains a key threshold in the coming quarters.</p><p><strong>Baird: Overweight rating, $252 price target</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird said he believes Tesla will be able to maintain industry-leading operating margins and be best positioned among its automotive peers to weather economic headwinds. Maintains an Overweight rating and a $252 price target on Tesla stock.</p><p><strong>Bernstein: Underperform rating, $150 price target</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bernstein said Tesla's price cuts are not surprising, but the timing and details are \"a little surprising\" and may continue to cut prices in other markets around the world. The price cuts reflect Tesla's need to stimulate market demand, the agency said. Maintain an Underperform rating and $150 price target on Tesla stock.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research: Peer Performance Rating</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rod Lache, an analyst at Wolfe Research, said that while price cuts in the U.S. could raise questions about demand for vehicles, Tesla \"will reduce costs significantly in the future.\" Investors may be underestimating new investments in Tesla Energy, the company said. Keep your peer perform rating on Tesla stock, and investors should not be surprised if the price cut triggers a negative short-term reaction to the stock price.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Financial Report Preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend be eaten, and will it \"backlash\" itself</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFinancial Report Preview | How long can Tesla's price reduction dividend be eaten, and will it \"backlash\" itself\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-11 17:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Will release its first quarter 2023 earnings results for the year ended March 31 after the market closes on April 19, Eastern Time (April 20, Beijing time).</p><p>In the past 2022, Tesla delivered a total of 1.31 million vehicles globally, an increase of 40% compared with 2021; Production was 1.37 million units, up 47% year-over-year, but neither of them met the 50% annual growth target.</p><p><strong>The consensus now expects the company to report revenue of $23.46 billion, adjusted profit of $3.057 billion and earnings per share of $0.86 for the first quarter.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A stronger-than-expected result would indicate Tesla's \"cost advantage position\" and potential input cost declines, but if Q1 results are flat or lower than expected, it would imply overcapacity or product aging, putting its stock price at risk. Particularly important, frequent price cuts have led analysts to pay more attention to the EV maker's gross profit margin in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40f14e3cd0b9cf7c3134cc1be1537b19\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>Q1 Deliveries: Is the Price Reduction Effect Sustainable?</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tesla Delivered Worldwide in Q1 2023<strong>More than 422,000 vehicles, breaking the single-quarter delivery record.</strong></p><p>According to the report, in the first quarter of 2023, Tesla produced 440,808 electric vehicles worldwide and delivered 422,875 units. Of these, 19,437 units of the Model S and Model X were built and 10,695 delivered; Model 3 and Model Y were produced at 421,371 units and delivered at 412,180 units.</p><p>Compared to the same period last year, Tesla's first-quarter total production increased 44% year-over-year and deliveries increased 36% year-over-year, which is 6.69 times the volume delivered in the same period in 2019.</p><p>According to the delivery report, Tesla will continue the transition to \"more balanced volume production for different regional markets\", including Model S/X models that are being shipped to the EMEA region (Europe/Middle East/Africa) as well as Asia Pacific.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/206ca2a9f22472a9e476b926b9c14c33\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Musk's full-year sales target of 1.8-2 million vehicles was not poorly completed in the first quarter. However, it cannot be ignored that in the Chinese market, the core position of its production and sales, this year's automobile market is ushering in more fierce competition, and Tesla also needs to respond more flexibly.</p><p>Industry analysts believe that,<strong>Tesla delivery growth is closely tied to price cuts at the beginning of the year, and the direct reason for the price cuts is to stimulate demand.</strong>In January, Tesla lowered the prices of models on sale in both China and the global market, with an overall drop of 9%.</p><p>On April 6, local time, Tesla again lowered the prices of its U.S. -based models, cutting prices on all models by 2% to 6%, marking the automaker's fifth price cut since January, with the most significant drop on high-end models. The more popular Model Y also saw a 4% price cut to $52,990.</p><p>At the same time, Tesla also announced that it will adjust the selling prices of Model 3 and Model Y in Hong Kong on April 15th. The biggest price adjustment reduction is the Model 3 Performance, by as much as 14.7%.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Previously, Tesla launched a price war in the United States, which analysts saw as a positive signal of the company's efforts to boost sales.</p><p>According to Tesla's goal, it will increase production by more than 10 times to 20 million vehicles/year by 2030. However, at present, Tesla's Model 3/Y and other models on sale have the longest sales cycle of 6-7 years, and there has been no mid-term facelift. With the intensification of market competition, Tesla's products are facing more severe challenges.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ed93f64aaf0be3e65df77daffd77f9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"712\"/></p><p><strong>Positive Factors: New Low-Class Models Are On The Way</strong></p><p>Recently, there has been market news that Tesla is planning a grand production capacity map for its new low-priced models. \"This low-priced Model is a small Model Y.\" The source said,<strong>\"Tesla is building an annual capacity plan for it of up to 4 million vehicles.\"</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It is understood that this is an early capacity strategy, and Tesla is passing on to the industrial chain:<strong>The production capacity of 4 million vehicles will be distributed in factories around the world, of which the Gigafactory in North America will bear 2 million vehicles, and the Berlin factory in Germany and the Shanghai Lingang factory will bear 1 million vehicles respectively. Among the North American factories, the Monterey factory in Mexico will be the main production capacity of this new model.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At this year's investor day, Tesla revealed the Monterey factory in Mexico. Since then, media reports said that the factory covers nearly 4,200 acres, which is 68% more than the 2,500 acres of the Texas factory and about 20 times the size of the Shanghai factory.</p><p>If a Tesla sells for 150,000 yuan, it may obviously set off another sales frenzy.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d883a08243beba49992da0458236253e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"/></p><p><strong>Unfavourable Factors: Regenerative Change of U.S. Electric Vehicle Tax Rebate Policy</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS unveiled the details of new EV tax credits, and automakers found that unless a workaround is found, the outcome is likely:<strong>The tax credits enjoyed by electric vehicles will be significantly reduced from April 18 when the new regime comes into force.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ford said its Mustang Mach-E and E-Transit will be eligible for an EV tax credit of $3,750 starting April 18, down from the current $7,500, after losing half of the tax credit for not meeting domestic battery procurement requirements.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From April 18, of the $7,500 tax credit<strong>Half of that will depend on whether battery components are primarily made in North America</strong>，<strong>The other half depends on whether battery minerals are primarily sourced from America's free-trade partners</strong>。 In the next five years, if you want to qualify for tax credits, the proportion of these components and minerals in automobile batteries will further increase from 50% and 40% respectively.</p><p><strong>Major Bank Ratings</strong></p><p><strong>Wedbush Securities: Outperform Rating, $225 Price Target</strong></p><p>Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, a well-known Tesla bull analyst, maintains an \"outperform\" rating and a $225 price target on Tesla stock. He said the Model Y/3 price cuts announced in early 2023 \"paid a good dividend\" for Tesla, with demand seemingly stable despite macroeconomic uncertainty. Whether Tesla's vehicle gross profit margin can exceed 20% remains a key threshold in the coming quarters.</p><p><strong>Baird: Overweight rating, $252 price target</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Baird said he believes Tesla will be able to maintain industry-leading operating margins and be best positioned among its automotive peers to weather economic headwinds. Maintains an Overweight rating and a $252 price target on Tesla stock.</p><p><strong>Bernstein: Underperform rating, $150 price target</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bernstein said Tesla's price cuts are not surprising, but the timing and details are \"a little surprising\" and may continue to cut prices in other markets around the world. The price cuts reflect Tesla's need to stimulate market demand, the agency said. Maintain an Underperform rating and $150 price target on Tesla stock.</p><p><strong>Wolfe Research: Peer Performance Rating</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Rod Lache, an analyst at Wolfe Research, said that while price cuts in the U.S. could raise questions about demand for vehicles, Tesla \"will reduce costs significantly in the future.\" Investors may be underestimating new investments in Tesla Energy, the company said. Keep your peer perform rating on Tesla stock, and investors should not be surprised if the price cut triggers a negative short-term reaction to the stock price.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135442671","content_text":"特斯拉将于美国东部时间4月19日收盘后（北京时间4月20日）发布截至3月31日的2023年第一季度财报。在过去的2022年，特斯拉全球共计交付汽车131万辆，相比2021年增长40%；生产量为137万辆，同比增长47%，但均未达到50%的年增长量目标。市场目前普遍预计该公司一季度的营收为234.6亿美元，调整后利润为30.57亿美元，每股收益为0.86美元。强于预期的结果将表明特斯拉的“成本优势地位”和潜在的投入成本下降，但如果第一季度的结果与预期持平或低于预期，则意味着产能过剩或产品老化，这将使其股价面临风险。尤其重要的是，频繁的降价行动令分析人士更加关注这家电动汽车制造商一季度的毛利率情况。一季度交付量：降价效应可持续吗？特斯拉2023年第一季度在全球交付超过42.2万辆汽车，打破了单季度的交付纪录。报告显示，2023年第一季度，特斯拉在全球生产电动车440808台，交付422875台。其中，Model S和Model X生产19437台，交付10695台；Model 3和Model Y的产量为421371台，交付量为412180台。与去年同期相比，特斯拉第一季度总产量同比增长44%，交付量同比增长36%，是2019年同期交付量的6.69倍。交付报告中显示，特斯拉将继续向“针对不同区域市场更加均衡的批量生产”过渡，其中包括正在运往EMEA地区（欧洲/中东/非洲)以及亚太地区的Model S/X车型。马斯克定下的全年180-200万辆的销量目标，第一季度完成得不差。但不容忽视的是，在其产销的核心阵地——中国市场，今年的汽车市场正迎来更为激烈的竞争，特斯拉也需要更灵活地应对。业内分析认为，特斯拉交付量增长与今年年初的降价活动密切相关，而降价的直接原因则是为了刺激需求。今年1月，特斯拉在中国和全球市场均调低了在售车型价格，整体降幅达到9%。当地时间4月6日，特斯拉再次下调了其美国在售车型的售价，将所有车型的价格下调了2%至6%，这是该汽车制造商自1月份以来的第五次降价，其中高端车型的降幅最为显著。较受欢迎的Model Y降价幅度也达到了4%，降至52990美元。与此同时，特斯拉还宣布将于4月15日调整香港地区Model 3和Model Y的售价，价格调整减幅最大的是Model 3 Performance，幅度多达14.7%。此前特斯拉发起在美国的价格战，分析师们都将其视为该公司努力提振销量的积极信号。根据特斯拉的目标，到2030年将产量提高10倍以上，达到2000万辆/年。不过，目前特斯拉在售的Model 3/Y等车型最长销售周期达6-7年，且一直没有进行中期改款。随着市场竞争的加剧，特斯拉的产品面临着更为严峻的挑战。积极因素：新低级车型呼之欲出最近传出市场消息，特斯拉正在为其新的低价车型，规划一副宏大的产能版图。“这款低价车型是一个小号Model Y。”消息人士称，“特斯拉正在为其构建一个高达400万辆的年产能计划。”据了解这是一项早期的产能策略，特斯拉正在向产业链传递：400万辆产能会分布在全球工厂，其中，北美的超级工厂将承担200万辆，德国柏林工厂和上海临港工厂分别承担100万辆。而在北美工厂当中，墨西哥的蒙特雷工厂会是这款新车型的产能主力。在今年投资者日上，特斯拉揭秘了墨西哥的蒙特雷工厂，此后，有媒体报道称，该工厂占地近4200英亩，这比德克萨斯州工厂的2500英亩多出68%，也是上海工厂面积的约20倍。如果一款特斯拉汽车卖到15万元，显然可能再次掀起销量狂潮。不利因素：美国电动车退税政策再生变上周五，美国财政部和国税局公布了新的电动汽车税收抵免细则，各家车企发现，除非找到变通方法，否则结果很可能是：从4月18日新制度生效起，电动汽车享受的税收抵免将大幅减少。福特公司表示，从4月18日开始，其 Mustang Mach-E 和 E-Transit 将有资格获得3750美元的电动汽车税收抵免，低于目前的 7500 美元，因为不符合国内电池采购要求而损失了一半的税收抵免。从4月18日起，7500美元的税收抵免额中有一半将取决于电池组件是否主要由北美制造，另一半取决于电池矿物是否主要来源于美国的自自由贸易伙伴。未来五年，想要符合税收抵免资格，汽车电池中上述组件及矿物占比将分别从50%和40%进一步提高。大行评级韦德布什证券：跑赢大盘评级，目标价225美元知名特斯拉多头分析师、韦德布什证券公司的丹·艾夫斯维持对特斯拉股票的“跑赢大盘”评级和225美元的目标价。他表示，2023年初宣布的Model Y/3降价为特斯拉“带来了丰厚的红利”，尽管宏观经济不确定，但需求似乎很稳定。未来几个季度，特斯拉的汽车毛利率能否超过20%仍是关键门槛。贝尔德：增持评级，目标价252美元贝尔德表示，相信特斯拉将能够保持行业领先的营业利润率，并且在汽车同行中处于最佳位置以抵御经济逆风。维持对特斯拉股票的增持评级和252美元的目标价。伯恩斯坦：表现不佳评级，150美元目标价伯恩斯坦表示，特斯拉降价并不令人意外，但时间和细节“有点令人惊讶”，可能在全球其它市场继续降价。该机构表示，降价反映了特斯拉刺激市场需求的需要。维持特斯拉股票的表现不佳评级和150美元的目标价。Wolfe Research：同业表现评级Wolfe Research 分析师 Rod Lache 表示，虽然美国的降价可能会引发对汽车需求的质疑，但特斯拉“未来会大幅降低成本”。该公司表示，投资者可能低估了对特斯拉能源的新投资。保持对特斯拉股票的同业表现评级，如果降价引发股价负面短期反应，投资者不应感到惊讶。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9944999242,"gmtCreate":1681658519586,"gmtModify":1681658523308,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9944999242","repostId":"1102189876","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102189876","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1681641413,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1102189876?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-16 18:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Don't miss this bull run","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102189876","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"经济似乎还略显冷意，但股市已经迫不及待要热起来。经过一个多月的调整，上周五上证指数再一次逼近3月7日的高位，并显示要突破的态势，而A股成交额更是连续9个交易日超越1万亿。无独有偶，即使是深受美国经济衰","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The economy still seems slightly cold, but the stock market can't wait to heat up.</p><p>After more than a month's adjustment, the Shanghai Composite Index approached the high level of March 7th again last Friday, showing a breakthrough trend, and the turnover of A shares exceeded 1 trillion for nine consecutive trading days.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2ddeaaf9c0cf410a1d4bebe3f835e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Coincidentally, even the S&P index, which has been deeply affected by the US recession, has quietly approached its highs on February 2nd.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182ff406e03a8e27b8016acc2b1653c4\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>The stock market has the most sensitive sense of smell, and capital will not lie. The fact that it continues to attack upward has already explained the problem.</p><p>That's our simple view of the market in 2023:<strong>Don't miss this bull run.</strong></p><p><strong>Macroscopic aspect</strong></p><p>Every bull market occurs with a super trough as the premise.</p><p>What a trough 2022 is, every investor can feel it. With repeated epidemics, economic downturn, constant peripheral wars and crazy rate hike, the capital market is really miserable.</p><p>But everything will come to an end, and several big macro risks have basically been or are about to be reversed. First of all, the Russia-Ukraine war, the capital market has long been passivated, and second, the epidemic has been irrelevant. The only thing bad now is the global rate hike, especially the official end of the Federal Reserve. Fortunately, the end is clearly visible, just short of the official announcement of the May meeting.</p><p>There are two fundamental factors that affect the stock market, one is<strong>economic fundamentals,</strong>One is<strong>Liquidity.</strong></p><p><strong>Domestic economic fundamentals, recovery is a foregone conclusion,</strong>On the surface, the domestic macroeconomic data does not seem too exciting, but the signs of improvement are showing step by step, especially at the consumption level. \"May Day\" is approaching, and the reservation data of tourist air tickets and hotels enhances the logic of consumption recovery. Now the market is waiting for the macroeconomic data for the first quarter of 2023 to be released two days later. Considering that there was a round of national infections after the epidemic was released at the beginning of the year, the data may not be very strong, but it is basically predictable. This should be regarded as the bottom of this year.</p><p><strong>On the periphery, there is a high probability that a U.S. economic recession will occur,</strong>It will have a negative effect on China's exports. Because as China's third-largest trading partner, China's exports to the United States are still as high as 536.8 billion US dollars under such difficult circumstances in 2022. However, China itself is expanding ties with other economies around the world in an effort to hedge against the negative impact of the United States. For a long time, even if the U.S. recession comes by appointment, according to the forecast of Federal Reserve officials, the impact will mainly be this year, and it will recover in the next two years. Therefore, surviving this year will basically be fine.</p><p>As for China's economic fundamentals, there will indeed be some disturbances in the short term, but there is really no reason to be pessimistic in the medium and long term, and it is impossible to reach last year's low level. Even if some deep-seated problems, such as the game between great powers and scientific and technological innovation, will not be solved immediately, fortunately, these problems will not worsen again, and the country is trying to break through step by step.</p><p><strong>In terms of liquidity, China's CPI remained low, at only 0.7% in March, which seems to signal that the economy is still awaiting a stronger recovery, but in turn, adds more possibilities for stimulating the economy and continuing to ease money.</strong>In fact, the monetary level has seen obvious easing, especially the social finance and M2 data released not long ago, but it takes time to transmit from the monetary level to the economy. In addition, the radical rate hike of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end step by step, which also provides more room for our monetary policy to exhibit.</p><p>The macro-economy is in the recovery channel, the general direction of liquidity is loose, and the stock market is bullish, so there is the most basic support.</p><p><strong>Microscopic surface</strong></p><p>At the micro level, it is mainly the profit of enterprises, which coincides with the collective disclosure of the first quarterly report by listed companies.</p><p>As of today, more than 200 A-share companies have disclosed their first-quarter performance forecasts, among which Langzi shares and Yanjing Beer, consumer stocks, have grown very strongly. Among them, the net profit of Langzi shares attributable to the parent has increased by 377-566 times year-on-year, and Yanjing Beer has increased by 71-75 times year-on-year. Although it looks extreme, it also represents the strong rebound of consumer stocks from the suppression of the epidemic last year to the release of the epidemic this year. While<strong>Technology stocks, represented by semiconductors, also show strong growth.</strong>Typically, North Huachuang, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer, is expected to increase its net profit attributable to the parent by 1.71-2 times year-on-year.</p><p>In the article at the beginning of the year, we mentioned the investment opportunities of semiconductors many times, but at that time, it was mainly based on the fact that the inventory cycle of semiconductors bottomed out in the first half of this year and entered an upward channel in the second half of the year, speculating on the logic of cycle reversal. The subsequent boom of chatGPT accelerated the cycle reversal of semiconductors. More importantly, the popularity of chatGPT also marked that a new round of technological revolution led by AI entered the fast lane. This technological revolution, which can shoulder mechanization, electrification and informatization, and is larger than them, has brought new growth space to the technology industry including semiconductors, and a new blue ocean prelude has slowly unfolded.</p><p>This is also the reason why we keep repeating the main line of investment this year, and the digital economy must be the biggest one.</p><p>If China basically followed others in science and technology in the past, this time, China is the most promising one of the leaders, because the digital economy has been established as a key industry developed and supported by the state. More importantly, China's strength in digital economy has been greatly improved. Even though there is still a gap with the United States in some key technical fields, its advantages are still obvious compared with most countries in the world.</p><p>Although there are many companies with the concept of rubbing on A-shares, on the whole, this technological revolution, the corresponding real bull stocks in China are highly likely, which undoubtedly provides a greater possibility for the stock market to go bull. At least from the financial perspective, this technological revolution with broad growth prospects and expected returns can easily attract incremental funds into the stock market.</p><p>As an investor, you need to pay more attention to this quarterly report, because it will not only confirm the recovery degree of the domestic economy, but also become an important basis for predicting the next economy and the performance of listed companies, or the evidence to verify the entry of incremental funds into the stock market. Although it has not been all announced yet, it is not advisable to draw a conclusion too early. However, given that there is no epidemic disturbance this year, it is at least certain that it will only be better than the same period last year.</p><p>And if the final result is indeed the case, it is only a matter of time before the Shanghai Stock Exchange breaks through the previous month's high.</p><p><strong>There is no suspense in the market outlook</strong></p><p>There is a famous saying in the investment community:<strong>The future is more important than the past.</strong></p><p>It means that the stock market is followed by ups and downs, and the most important thing is expectations.</p><p>In the past year in review, one thing that the author has the most profound experience is that in October last year, US stocks fell to the lowest point of the year, and A-share Hong Kong stocks also bottomed out that month.</p><p>If we look at it in a simple linear way, the federal interest rate in the United States was not very high at that time, and the economy was still very strong, but why did it fall to a low level early? However, the domestic epidemic pressure and economic pressure are so great, and it was even reported that there was a confidence crisis in foreign capital. It is understandable that the rapid decline, but why did it rebound strongly in a few days? Shouldn't it continue to fall?</p><p><strong>In fact, the stock market has another characteristic, that is, it responds to the real economy in advance. This response usually takes half a year, and it will be affected by other factors in the process, which can be accelerated or slowed down.</strong></p><p>The bottom of the Chinese and American stock markets in October last year was affected by this law, and now it has been verified step by step. First of all, the rate hike behavior of the United States. If it ends as scheduled in May this year, it will be exactly half a year from October last year; Secondly, China. That rapid decline did play a role in bottoming out ahead of schedule. Of course, the liberalization of the epidemic in November is the most important factor in the stock market rebound. If the closure continues, the rebound will not come so soon.</p><p>However, no matter what, it is unlikely that the stock market, whether it is A-shares, Hong Kong stocks or US stocks, will return to the bottom position of last year. Let alone the domestic economic recovery and loose liquidity. Even if US stocks enter the stage of \"killing profits\", it will be difficult to happen unless the performance of listed companies collapses on a large scale. When the bank stocks stormed in March, there was a round of panic, but so far, there has been no expected collapse, and the performance of big banks like JPMorgan Chase has increased greatly. In terms of indexes, the most injured Dow Jones volatility is around 10%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 are far below 10%, and all three major indexes have completely recovered their March losses and risen a lot.</p><p>It can be said that the biggest macro risk now is only the economic recession in the United States. If the stock market reacts to the future in advance, it will be half a year later. In other words, the stock market is pricing a recession half a year later. Of course, whether it is fully priced remains to be announced by other economies, listed company data and follow-up policies. If these data decline beyond expectations, the stock market will still follow. If it meets expectations, the stock market can be flat, but if it improves beyond expectations, the rebound will happen at any time.</p><p>If the two factors mentioned above-economic fundamentals and liquidity-are used, the liquidity tightening of U.S. stocks is basically priced by the market, and the only bad thing is to wait for the economic bottom. The situation in China is better, because our economic fundamentals have bottomed out and are in the recovery stage.</p><p><strong>epilogue</strong></p><p>If last year was the collapse moment of the global capital market, then the upward resonance of the global capital market this year should be the most anticipated and highly probable thing.</p><p>Now, the signs of a bull in the market outlook may not be obvious, because except the AI sector, other sectors are still relatively low-key, which requires some catalytic factors and some time. But just as the wind rises at the end of Qingping and the waves form between slight waves, the stock market will not directly tell you that the bull market is coming. However, since the expectation for the future is good and the valuation is at a low level, it is a good thing to perform low-key, which is equivalent to giving investors the opportunity to get on the bus. If it has gone wild, there is no chance.</p><p>Chinese people often say that it is extremely prosperous, and the same is true in the stock market. If one sentence is enough for this year's stock market investment strategy, it is:</p><p><strong>Don't miss this bull run!</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't miss this bull run</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't miss this bull run\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-04-16 18:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The economy still seems slightly cold, but the stock market can't wait to heat up.</p><p>After more than a month's adjustment, the Shanghai Composite Index approached the high level of March 7th again last Friday, showing a breakthrough trend, and the turnover of A shares exceeded 1 trillion for nine consecutive trading days.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2ddeaaf9c0cf410a1d4bebe3f835e3\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>Coincidentally, even the S&P index, which has been deeply affected by the US recession, has quietly approached its highs on February 2nd.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182ff406e03a8e27b8016acc2b1653c4\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>The stock market has the most sensitive sense of smell, and capital will not lie. The fact that it continues to attack upward has already explained the problem.</p><p>That's our simple view of the market in 2023:<strong>Don't miss this bull run.</strong></p><p><strong>Macroscopic aspect</strong></p><p>Every bull market occurs with a super trough as the premise.</p><p>What a trough 2022 is, every investor can feel it. With repeated epidemics, economic downturn, constant peripheral wars and crazy rate hike, the capital market is really miserable.</p><p>But everything will come to an end, and several big macro risks have basically been or are about to be reversed. First of all, the Russia-Ukraine war, the capital market has long been passivated, and second, the epidemic has been irrelevant. The only thing bad now is the global rate hike, especially the official end of the Federal Reserve. Fortunately, the end is clearly visible, just short of the official announcement of the May meeting.</p><p>There are two fundamental factors that affect the stock market, one is<strong>economic fundamentals,</strong>One is<strong>Liquidity.</strong></p><p><strong>Domestic economic fundamentals, recovery is a foregone conclusion,</strong>On the surface, the domestic macroeconomic data does not seem too exciting, but the signs of improvement are showing step by step, especially at the consumption level. \"May Day\" is approaching, and the reservation data of tourist air tickets and hotels enhances the logic of consumption recovery. Now the market is waiting for the macroeconomic data for the first quarter of 2023 to be released two days later. Considering that there was a round of national infections after the epidemic was released at the beginning of the year, the data may not be very strong, but it is basically predictable. This should be regarded as the bottom of this year.</p><p><strong>On the periphery, there is a high probability that a U.S. economic recession will occur,</strong>It will have a negative effect on China's exports. Because as China's third-largest trading partner, China's exports to the United States are still as high as 536.8 billion US dollars under such difficult circumstances in 2022. However, China itself is expanding ties with other economies around the world in an effort to hedge against the negative impact of the United States. For a long time, even if the U.S. recession comes by appointment, according to the forecast of Federal Reserve officials, the impact will mainly be this year, and it will recover in the next two years. Therefore, surviving this year will basically be fine.</p><p>As for China's economic fundamentals, there will indeed be some disturbances in the short term, but there is really no reason to be pessimistic in the medium and long term, and it is impossible to reach last year's low level. Even if some deep-seated problems, such as the game between great powers and scientific and technological innovation, will not be solved immediately, fortunately, these problems will not worsen again, and the country is trying to break through step by step.</p><p><strong>In terms of liquidity, China's CPI remained low, at only 0.7% in March, which seems to signal that the economy is still awaiting a stronger recovery, but in turn, adds more possibilities for stimulating the economy and continuing to ease money.</strong>In fact, the monetary level has seen obvious easing, especially the social finance and M2 data released not long ago, but it takes time to transmit from the monetary level to the economy. In addition, the radical rate hike of the Federal Reserve is coming to an end step by step, which also provides more room for our monetary policy to exhibit.</p><p>The macro-economy is in the recovery channel, the general direction of liquidity is loose, and the stock market is bullish, so there is the most basic support.</p><p><strong>Microscopic surface</strong></p><p>At the micro level, it is mainly the profit of enterprises, which coincides with the collective disclosure of the first quarterly report by listed companies.</p><p>As of today, more than 200 A-share companies have disclosed their first-quarter performance forecasts, among which Langzi shares and Yanjing Beer, consumer stocks, have grown very strongly. Among them, the net profit of Langzi shares attributable to the parent has increased by 377-566 times year-on-year, and Yanjing Beer has increased by 71-75 times year-on-year. Although it looks extreme, it also represents the strong rebound of consumer stocks from the suppression of the epidemic last year to the release of the epidemic this year. While<strong>Technology stocks, represented by semiconductors, also show strong growth.</strong>Typically, North Huachuang, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer, is expected to increase its net profit attributable to the parent by 1.71-2 times year-on-year.</p><p>In the article at the beginning of the year, we mentioned the investment opportunities of semiconductors many times, but at that time, it was mainly based on the fact that the inventory cycle of semiconductors bottomed out in the first half of this year and entered an upward channel in the second half of the year, speculating on the logic of cycle reversal. The subsequent boom of chatGPT accelerated the cycle reversal of semiconductors. More importantly, the popularity of chatGPT also marked that a new round of technological revolution led by AI entered the fast lane. This technological revolution, which can shoulder mechanization, electrification and informatization, and is larger than them, has brought new growth space to the technology industry including semiconductors, and a new blue ocean prelude has slowly unfolded.</p><p>This is also the reason why we keep repeating the main line of investment this year, and the digital economy must be the biggest one.</p><p>If China basically followed others in science and technology in the past, this time, China is the most promising one of the leaders, because the digital economy has been established as a key industry developed and supported by the state. More importantly, China's strength in digital economy has been greatly improved. Even though there is still a gap with the United States in some key technical fields, its advantages are still obvious compared with most countries in the world.</p><p>Although there are many companies with the concept of rubbing on A-shares, on the whole, this technological revolution, the corresponding real bull stocks in China are highly likely, which undoubtedly provides a greater possibility for the stock market to go bull. At least from the financial perspective, this technological revolution with broad growth prospects and expected returns can easily attract incremental funds into the stock market.</p><p>As an investor, you need to pay more attention to this quarterly report, because it will not only confirm the recovery degree of the domestic economy, but also become an important basis for predicting the next economy and the performance of listed companies, or the evidence to verify the entry of incremental funds into the stock market. Although it has not been all announced yet, it is not advisable to draw a conclusion too early. However, given that there is no epidemic disturbance this year, it is at least certain that it will only be better than the same period last year.</p><p>And if the final result is indeed the case, it is only a matter of time before the Shanghai Stock Exchange breaks through the previous month's high.</p><p><strong>There is no suspense in the market outlook</strong></p><p>There is a famous saying in the investment community:<strong>The future is more important than the past.</strong></p><p>It means that the stock market is followed by ups and downs, and the most important thing is expectations.</p><p>In the past year in review, one thing that the author has the most profound experience is that in October last year, US stocks fell to the lowest point of the year, and A-share Hong Kong stocks also bottomed out that month.</p><p>If we look at it in a simple linear way, the federal interest rate in the United States was not very high at that time, and the economy was still very strong, but why did it fall to a low level early? However, the domestic epidemic pressure and economic pressure are so great, and it was even reported that there was a confidence crisis in foreign capital. It is understandable that the rapid decline, but why did it rebound strongly in a few days? Shouldn't it continue to fall?</p><p><strong>In fact, the stock market has another characteristic, that is, it responds to the real economy in advance. This response usually takes half a year, and it will be affected by other factors in the process, which can be accelerated or slowed down.</strong></p><p>The bottom of the Chinese and American stock markets in October last year was affected by this law, and now it has been verified step by step. First of all, the rate hike behavior of the United States. If it ends as scheduled in May this year, it will be exactly half a year from October last year; Secondly, China. That rapid decline did play a role in bottoming out ahead of schedule. Of course, the liberalization of the epidemic in November is the most important factor in the stock market rebound. If the closure continues, the rebound will not come so soon.</p><p>However, no matter what, it is unlikely that the stock market, whether it is A-shares, Hong Kong stocks or US stocks, will return to the bottom position of last year. Let alone the domestic economic recovery and loose liquidity. Even if US stocks enter the stage of \"killing profits\", it will be difficult to happen unless the performance of listed companies collapses on a large scale. When the bank stocks stormed in March, there was a round of panic, but so far, there has been no expected collapse, and the performance of big banks like JPMorgan Chase has increased greatly. In terms of indexes, the most injured Dow Jones volatility is around 10%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 are far below 10%, and all three major indexes have completely recovered their March losses and risen a lot.</p><p>It can be said that the biggest macro risk now is only the economic recession in the United States. If the stock market reacts to the future in advance, it will be half a year later. In other words, the stock market is pricing a recession half a year later. Of course, whether it is fully priced remains to be announced by other economies, listed company data and follow-up policies. If these data decline beyond expectations, the stock market will still follow. If it meets expectations, the stock market can be flat, but if it improves beyond expectations, the rebound will happen at any time.</p><p>If the two factors mentioned above-economic fundamentals and liquidity-are used, the liquidity tightening of U.S. stocks is basically priced by the market, and the only bad thing is to wait for the economic bottom. The situation in China is better, because our economic fundamentals have bottomed out and are in the recovery stage.</p><p><strong>epilogue</strong></p><p>If last year was the collapse moment of the global capital market, then the upward resonance of the global capital market this year should be the most anticipated and highly probable thing.</p><p>Now, the signs of a bull in the market outlook may not be obvious, because except the AI sector, other sectors are still relatively low-key, which requires some catalytic factors and some time. But just as the wind rises at the end of Qingping and the waves form between slight waves, the stock market will not directly tell you that the bull market is coming. However, since the expectation for the future is good and the valuation is at a low level, it is a good thing to perform low-key, which is equivalent to giving investors the opportunity to get on the bus. If it has gone wild, there is no chance.</p><p>Chinese people often say that it is extremely prosperous, and the same is true in the stock market. If one sentence is enough for this year's stock market investment strategy, it is:</p><p><strong>Don't miss this bull run!</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a3253accc7322a3db322a8557ee9834","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102189876","content_text":"经济似乎还略显冷意，但股市已经迫不及待要热起来。经过一个多月的调整，上周五上证指数再一次逼近3月7日的高位，并显示要突破的态势，而A股成交额更是连续9个交易日超越1万亿。无独有偶，即使是深受美国经济衰退影响的标普指数，也已经悄无声息地逼近2月2日的高位。股市的嗅觉最灵敏，资本也不会骗人，持续向上攻的事实，已经说明问题。那就是我们对于2023年市场的一个简单观点：不要错过这一轮牛市。宏观面每一轮牛市的发生，都有一个超级低谷作为前提。2022年是何等的低谷，每一个投资者都能感受得到。疫情反复、经济下滑，外围战事不断、加息疯狂，资本市场真的是苦不堪言。但任何事都会有了结的时刻，几个大的宏观风险，现在基本已经或者即将反转。首先是俄乌战争，资本市场早已钝化，其次是疫情也已经无关痛痒，现在唯一差的，就是全球的加息，尤其是美联储的正式结束。幸运的是，这个结束已经清晰可见，只差5月份会议的官宣。影响股市的两个基本因素，一个是经济基本面，一个是流动性。国内的经济基本面，复苏已成定局，表面上看国内的宏观经济数据似乎并没有太令人激动，但好转的迹象正在一步步呈现，特别是消费层面，“五一”将至，旅游机票酒店的预定数据增强了消费回暖的逻辑。现在市场都在等待两天后公布的2023年一季度的宏观经济数据，考虑到年初疫情放开后出现过一轮全民感染，数据未必很强劲，但基本也可以预见，这应该算是今年的底部了。外围方面，美国经济衰退大概率会出现，对于中国出口会有负面作用。因为作为中国第三大贸易伙伴，2022年如此艰难的情况下，中国出口美国依然高达5368亿美元。不过，中国本身也在扩大和全球其他经济体的联系，努力对冲美国的负面影响。而拉长时间看，即使美国衰退预约而至，根据美联储官员的预计，影响主要在今年，明后两年会走向复苏。所以，熬过今年基本也就没事了。对于中国经济基本面，短期看确实会有一些扰动，但中长期确实没有理由悲观，也不可能再下探到去年的低位。即使一些深层次的问题，例如大国博弈、科技创新，不会马上得到解决，可幸的是，这些问题也不至于再度恶化，而且国家也在努力一步步突围。流动性方面，中国的CPI维持在较低的位置，3月份只有0.7%，这似乎预示着经济仍有待更强劲的复苏，但反过来说，为刺激经济以及继续宽松货币增加更多的可能性。实际上，货币层面已经看到明显的宽松，特别是不久前公布的社融、M2数据，只不过从货币层面到经济的传导需要时间。另外，美联储的激进加息一步步走向终结，也为我们的货币政策提供更多的施展空间。宏观经济处于复苏通道，流动性的大方向是宽松，股市走牛，就有了最基本的支持。微观面微观层面，主要是企业的盈利，恰逢上市公司集体披露一季报。截至今天，A股披露一季度业绩预告的公司超过200家，其中消费股的朗姿股份、燕京啤酒增长非常强劲，其中朗姿股份归母净利润同比增长达到377-566倍，燕京啤酒同比增长71-75倍。虽然看上去极端，但也代表了消费股从去年被疫情压制，到今年放开疫情后强势的反弹态势。而以半导体为代表的科技股，同样显示出强劲的增长态势。典型的是半导体设备商北方华创，预计归母净利润同比增长1.71--2倍。在年初的文章中，我们就多次提及半导体的投资机会，不过彼时主要是基于半导体的库存周期在今年上半年见底，下半年进入上升通道，炒的是周期反转的逻辑。其后出现的chatGPT热潮，加速了半导体的周期反转，更重要的是，chatGPT的大热，也标志着以AI为首的新一轮技术革命进入快车道，这个可以比肩机械化、电气化和信息化，而且比它们规模更大的技术革命，给包括半导体在内的科技行业带来新的增长空间，一个新的蓝海序幕已经徐徐展开。这也是我们不断重复今年的投资主线，数字经济必定是最大的一个的理由。如果说以往中国在科技方面基本都是跟着别人走，但这一次，中国是最有希望成为其中一位领跑者，因为数字经济已经被确立为国家重点发展和扶持的产业，更重要的是，中国在数字经济方面的实力已经大大提高，即使在一些关键技术领域和美国尚有差距，但和全球大部分国家相比，优势还是很明显。虽然A股上也存在不少蹭概念的公司，但总体上看，这一个技术革命，中国出现相对应的真牛股是大概率的，这无疑也为股市走牛提供了更大的可能性。至少从资金面上看，这种拥有广阔增长前景和预期收益的技术革命，是很容易吸引增量资金进入股市的。作为投资者，需要更多地关注这一次的季报，因为这不但会印证国内经济的复苏程度，也会成为预测接下来经济以及上市公司业绩的重要依据，还是验证增量资金进入股市的证据。虽然现在尚未全部公布，过早下结论不可取，但鉴于今年没有已经没有疫情扰动，至少可以肯定，整体上比起去年同期，只会好不会差。而如果最后的结果确实如此的话，上证突围前月高点，只是时间问题。后市走牛无悬念投资界有句名言：未来比过去重要。意思是，股市后面是涨是跌，最重要的是预期。复盘过去一年，有一点是笔者体会最为深刻的，都发生去年10月，美股跌入年内低点，A股港股也是在那个月见底。如果简单的线性思维去看，那时美国的联邦利率并没有很高，经济也还很强劲，但为何早早就跌入低位呢？而国内疫情压力、经济压力又那么大，甚至一度传出外资出现信心危机，快速下跌可以理解，但为何没过几天就强力反弹了呢？难道不应该继续下跌吗？实际上，股市还有另一个特征，就是提前对实体经济做出反应，这种反应通常以半年为常，而且过程当中还会受其他因素的影响，可以加快也可以减慢。去年10月份中美股市的底部，就受到这个规律的影响，现在也一步步得到验证，首先是美国的加息行为，如果今年5月份如期结束，距离去年10月份，正好半年；其次是中国，那一次快速下跌，确实起到了提前见底的作用，当然，11月疫情放开是股市反弹也是最重要的一个因素，如果继续封控，反弹未至于那么快到来。但不管如何，想要股市，不管是A股、港股还是美股，回到去年的底部位置，可能性都不高了，国内经济复苏，流动性宽松就不说了，即使是美股进入“杀盈利”阶段，除非上市公司业绩大面积崩溃，否则很难会出现。3月份银行股暴雷的时候，曾经引发过一轮恐慌，但到现在为止，也没有出现预期中的崩溃现象，摩根大通这种大银行业绩反而大增。指数方面，最受伤的道琼斯波幅在10%左右，而纳斯达克、标普500远低于10%，并且三大指数都已经完全收复3月份跌幅并上涨不少。可以说，现在最大的宏观风险只是美国的经济衰退，如果按照股市提前反应未来的特征，现在交易的正是半年之后。换句话说，股市正在定价半年之后的经济衰退。当然，是否完全定价还有待于其他经济、上市公司数据，以及后续政策的公布，如果这些数据超预期下滑，那股市还是会跟着，如果符合预期，那股市可以持平，但如果超预期向好，反弹就会随时发生。如果用前文所说的两个因素——经济基本面和流动性，美股的流动性紧缩基本被市场定价，唯一差的就是等经济面见底。而中国的情况，要更好一些，因为我们的经济基本面已经见底，并处于回升阶段。结语如果说去年是全球资本市场的崩溃时刻，那今年出现全球资本市场向上共振，应该是最值得期待，也是大概率的事情。现在看，后市走牛的迹象可能还不至于很明显，因为除了AI板块，其他板块都还相对低调，需要一些催化因素，也需要一些时日。但正如风起于青萍之末，浪成于微澜之间，股市不会直接告诉你牛市来了，但既然对于未来的预期向好，估值上又处于低位，表现低调反而是好事，这等于给了投资者上车的机会。如果已经狂飙起来了，机会就没有了。中国人常常说否极泰来，放在股市也是如此。如果说对于今年股市的投资策略，一句话足矣，那就是：不要错过这一轮牛市！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945444267,"gmtCreate":1681571184659,"gmtModify":1681571188772,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945444267","repostId":"1137337807","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9945235973,"gmtCreate":1681481913492,"gmtModify":1681481917939,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581665781703479","authorIdStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9945235973","repostId":"1150662233","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150662233","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1681480084,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150662233?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-04-14 21:48","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Middle East local tyrants sweep goods crazy! The latest A-share positions are exposed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150662233","media":"ETF进化论","summary":"2006年有一则新闻令人印象深刻——中东客6亿元狂扫上海顶级豪宅。来自中东的基金 Gateway Capital，斥资约6亿元人民币，买下上海市中心新天地----翠湖天地御苑二期102 套住房，每平方","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><strong>In 2006, there was an impressive news-600 million yuan from the Middle East swept the top luxury houses in Shanghai.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Gateway Capital, a fund from the Middle East, spent about 600 million yuan to buy 102 houses in Phase II of Cuihu Tiandi Yuyuan, Xintiandi, downtown Shanghai, with an average transaction price of 40,000 yuan per square meter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda7d94604cc78530f8e950784b338ee\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"773\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The transaction price of second-hand houses in Cuihu Tiandi Yuyuan Phase II in 2022 reached 264,000 per square meter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1447d82193e227d3818b05eb306a13c5\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"696\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the outbreak of two \"oil crises\" in 1970s, the continuous rise of oil prices for many years has greatly increased the income of foreign exchange countries such as Arab countries in the Middle East. In order to smooth consumption and preserve wealth for future generations, many Arab countries have begun to set up sovereign wealth funds to open up their global layout.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The total assets of the top 10 sovereign wealth funds in the Arab Gulf countries reach $3.7 trillion, among which the assets of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) rank third in the world and first in the Arab region.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07c2310479ae72fb953f23928abe4910\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Global SWF, a Global sovereign wealth fund data platform, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority reached $993 billion; It is followed by the Kuwait Investment Authority with a scale of more than $769 billion.</p><p><strong>The investment trend of local tyrants in the Middle East has attracted global attention.</strong></p><p><strong>1. Revealing the secrets of local tyrants in the Middle East</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the Middle East and the third largest in the world. Its funding sources are the government of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, mainly for the country's oil gains.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In order to resist the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy, and out of concern about the fate of countries after oil and gas resources are exhausted, countries in the Middle East have launched sovereign wealth funds to seek an economic outlet, convert non-renewable assets into more diversified asset portfolios, and realize the purpose of saving for the next generation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1976, the Emirate of Abu Dhabi established the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the oldest and largest of many sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Over the past 40+ years of development, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has been adhering to the management purpose of seeking economic outlets and converting non-renewable assets into a more diversified portfolio of assets.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's 20-year annualized returns fluctuate in the 5%-8% range and 30-year annualized returns fluctuate in the 6%-9% range.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d14ae4d22d16b6c78a7965dea31d43\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"724\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is arguably the most mysterious sovereign investment fund, keeping a low profile, not disclosing the value of its assets, and not disclosing its investment methods and portfolios.</strong>David Mark, a former US ambassador to the UAE, said: \"Within the UAE, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority basically discloses little information to the public, rarely attracts criticism, and they don't advertise.\"</p><p><strong>2. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority sweeps A shares</strong></p><p>Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is our old friend. As early as 1992, when the Chinese market was first opened to overseas investors, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority began to invest in China, and it has been 30 years since.</p><p><strong>At present, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is involved in the fields of A shares, B shares, real estate investment and private equity. According to the annual reports of listed companies disclosed recently, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority continued to sweep A shares at the end of 2022.</strong></p><p>As of April 13th, among the listed companies that have disclosed their annual reports,<strong>Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's figure appeared in the list of the top ten tradable shareholders of 12 A-share listed companies, and the market value of A-share positions exceeded 5.8 billion yuan</strong>, namely Zijin Mining, Oriental Fortune, Oriental Yuhong, China Shenhua, Daqo Energy, Beixin Building Materials, Shengyi Technology, China Merchants Jiyu, USI, Pudong Jinqiao, Joincare and Blum Oriental.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61fbad404945bbd82d5f69aeace25ec\" alt=\"(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）\" title=\"(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"613\"/><span>(The contents of this article are all objective data information, which does not constitute any investment advice)</span></p><p>Specifically, compared with the end of the third quarter of 2022, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority first appeared on the list of the top ten tradable shareholders of China Shenhua, Zijin Mining and Oriental Yuhong at the end of 2022, holding approximately 18.29 million shares, 163 million shares and 23.68 million shares respectively at the end of the year.</p><p>At the end of the fourth quarter, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority increased its holdings of about 7.16 million shares, 610,000 shares and 170,000 shares in Oriental Fortune, USI Electronics and Blum Oriental respectively; Beixin Building Materials, Joincare, Daqo Energy and Pudong Jinqiao reduced their holdings by about 120,000 shares, 410,000 shares, 5.240,000 shares and 742,000 shares respectively.</p><p>The 2022 annual report has not been completely disclosed. According to the report of listed companies in the third quarter of 2022, in the third quarter of last year, Abu Dhabi entered the details of the top ten shareholders of 26 listed companies, including Oriental Fortune, Gree Electric, Daqo Energy, Haid Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Pioneer Intelligent, Hengli Hydraulic, Laobaixing, Beixin Building Materials and Tonghua Dongbao, and the market value of its positions at the end of the period reached 7.316 billion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14598e9358dd5c35ef20302ee0161edd\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"641\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Abu Dhabi is optimistic about growth opportunities in emerging markets and has the potential to increase investments in emerging markets in the future.</strong>According to the media interview with the chairman of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi has been overweight with emerging markets represented by China in the past 15 years, due to the continuous growth trend of emerging market economy and population, and the continuous strengthening of these markets' opening to foreign investors.</p><p><strong>3. \"Patient capital\" is impatient in A shares?</strong></p><p><strong>Since 2010, the industries covered by Abu Dhabi's A-share investment are mainly medicine and biology, non-ferrous metals, architectural decoration, chemicals, machinery and equipment, etc. From the perspective of the industries in which the top-ranked companies are located, the upstream manufacturing industry appears in the investment list. The frequency is high.</strong></p><p>The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority said its investment team focuses on investing in companies with strong management teams, reasonable valuations and growth potential.</p><p>In terms of timing, in the past, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority preferred reverse operation. Comparing the market value of A-share portfolio of CSI 300 and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, it can be found that since Abu Dhabi Investment Authority increased its A-share investment, the market value of its portfolio has not converged with the trend of CSI 300, and even the opposite trend often appears.</p><p>In the first half of 2015, when the A-share market was frenetic, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority considered it from a long-term perspective, and did not blindly increase its investment in China's overheated market, but still adopted relatively stable investment methods to maintain its shareholding scale.</p><p>Therefore, the asset size of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority did not suffer a significant reduction in 2015. When the A-share market experienced a decline for nearly a year and was at a relative bottom, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority re-increased its investment in the A-share market and bought stocks on dips. At this time, the A-share shareholding scale and market value of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority also ushered in a small peak.</p><p>Then, since 2016, the A-share market has rebounded, while Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has continuously reduced its holdings and reduced its asset scale. It was not until the A-share market ushered in another low point in the second half of 2018 that the shareholding size of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority reached another small peak.</p><p><strong>In the past, when the A-share market was overheated, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority invested cautiously and even reduced its holdings; When the A-share market is at the bottom stage, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is increasing its layout and constantly buying.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d72367661ee8a9293d43d0300e37d35\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"724\"/></p><p>Although the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is a long-term investor and the market describes the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority as \"patient capital\", it does not hold specific stocks for a long time when making A-share investments.<strong>Among the A-share companies invested by Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, only a few have held shares for more than three years.</strong></p><p>The holding period is not long, and the research on the A-share market may not be enough. Middle Eastern tycoons Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia still opted to open Chinese offices during the pandemic, illustrating this trend.</p><p>According to reports, Bank of America Securities recently met with investors in the Middle East, and local investors tend to make medium and long-term deployments for the Chinese mainland market. Local sovereign wealth funds already have teams dedicated to investing in Mainland China, some of which have recently established relevant investment teams in Beijing and Singapore.</p><p><strong>In recent years, local tyrants in the Middle East have increased their investment in the A-share market, and hundreds of billion petrochemical giants have introduced local tyrants in the Middle East.</strong>On March 27th, Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco spent 24.6 billion yuan to buy 10% of Rongsheng Petrochemical's shares, which was converted to 24.13 yuan per share. According to the closing price of the day, the premium of this acquisition is nearly 90%.</p><p>As local tyrants in the Middle East overweight China, domestic venture capital institutions fly to the Middle East to find money. More than 4,000 global millionaires were expected to flood to Dubai last year, far more than 1,300 in 2019.</p><p>In 2021, the bilateral trade volume between China and Arab countries exceeded the US$300 billion mark, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 37%. China is Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has become China's largest trading partner in North Africa.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1653219549182","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Middle East local tyrants sweep goods crazy! The latest A-share positions are exposed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMiddle East local tyrants sweep goods crazy! The latest A-share positions are exposed\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">ETF进化论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-04-14 21:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><strong>In 2006, there was an impressive news-600 million yuan from the Middle East swept the top luxury houses in Shanghai.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Gateway Capital, a fund from the Middle East, spent about 600 million yuan to buy 102 houses in Phase II of Cuihu Tiandi Yuyuan, Xintiandi, downtown Shanghai, with an average transaction price of 40,000 yuan per square meter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fda7d94604cc78530f8e950784b338ee\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"773\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The transaction price of second-hand houses in Cuihu Tiandi Yuyuan Phase II in 2022 reached 264,000 per square meter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1447d82193e227d3818b05eb306a13c5\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"696\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Since the outbreak of two \"oil crises\" in 1970s, the continuous rise of oil prices for many years has greatly increased the income of foreign exchange countries such as Arab countries in the Middle East. In order to smooth consumption and preserve wealth for future generations, many Arab countries have begun to set up sovereign wealth funds to open up their global layout.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The total assets of the top 10 sovereign wealth funds in the Arab Gulf countries reach $3.7 trillion, among which the assets of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) rank third in the world and first in the Arab region.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07c2310479ae72fb953f23928abe4910\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to Global SWF, a Global sovereign wealth fund data platform, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority reached $993 billion; It is followed by the Kuwait Investment Authority with a scale of more than $769 billion.</p><p><strong>The investment trend of local tyrants in the Middle East has attracted global attention.</strong></p><p><strong>1. Revealing the secrets of local tyrants in the Middle East</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is the largest sovereign wealth fund in the Middle East and the third largest in the world. Its funding sources are the government of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, mainly for the country's oil gains.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In order to resist the impact of oil price fluctuations on the economy, and out of concern about the fate of countries after oil and gas resources are exhausted, countries in the Middle East have launched sovereign wealth funds to seek an economic outlet, convert non-renewable assets into more diversified asset portfolios, and realize the purpose of saving for the next generation.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In 1976, the Emirate of Abu Dhabi established the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the oldest and largest of many sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Over the past 40+ years of development, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has been adhering to the management purpose of seeking economic outlets and converting non-renewable assets into a more diversified portfolio of assets.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's 20-year annualized returns fluctuate in the 5%-8% range and 30-year annualized returns fluctuate in the 6%-9% range.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59d14ae4d22d16b6c78a7965dea31d43\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"724\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is arguably the most mysterious sovereign investment fund, keeping a low profile, not disclosing the value of its assets, and not disclosing its investment methods and portfolios.</strong>David Mark, a former US ambassador to the UAE, said: \"Within the UAE, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority basically discloses little information to the public, rarely attracts criticism, and they don't advertise.\"</p><p><strong>2. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority sweeps A shares</strong></p><p>Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is our old friend. As early as 1992, when the Chinese market was first opened to overseas investors, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority began to invest in China, and it has been 30 years since.</p><p><strong>At present, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is involved in the fields of A shares, B shares, real estate investment and private equity. According to the annual reports of listed companies disclosed recently, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority continued to sweep A shares at the end of 2022.</strong></p><p>As of April 13th, among the listed companies that have disclosed their annual reports,<strong>Abu Dhabi Investment Authority's figure appeared in the list of the top ten tradable shareholders of 12 A-share listed companies, and the market value of A-share positions exceeded 5.8 billion yuan</strong>, namely Zijin Mining, Oriental Fortune, Oriental Yuhong, China Shenhua, Daqo Energy, Beixin Building Materials, Shengyi Technology, China Merchants Jiyu, USI, Pudong Jinqiao, Joincare and Blum Oriental.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61fbad404945bbd82d5f69aeace25ec\" alt=\"(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）\" title=\"(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"613\"/><span>(The contents of this article are all objective data information, which does not constitute any investment advice)</span></p><p>Specifically, compared with the end of the third quarter of 2022, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority first appeared on the list of the top ten tradable shareholders of China Shenhua, Zijin Mining and Oriental Yuhong at the end of 2022, holding approximately 18.29 million shares, 163 million shares and 23.68 million shares respectively at the end of the year.</p><p>At the end of the fourth quarter, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority increased its holdings of about 7.16 million shares, 610,000 shares and 170,000 shares in Oriental Fortune, USI Electronics and Blum Oriental respectively; Beixin Building Materials, Joincare, Daqo Energy and Pudong Jinqiao reduced their holdings by about 120,000 shares, 410,000 shares, 5.240,000 shares and 742,000 shares respectively.</p><p>The 2022 annual report has not been completely disclosed. According to the report of listed companies in the third quarter of 2022, in the third quarter of last year, Abu Dhabi entered the details of the top ten shareholders of 26 listed companies, including Oriental Fortune, Gree Electric, Daqo Energy, Haid Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Pioneer Intelligent, Hengli Hydraulic, Laobaixing, Beixin Building Materials and Tonghua Dongbao, and the market value of its positions at the end of the period reached 7.316 billion.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14598e9358dd5c35ef20302ee0161edd\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"641\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Abu Dhabi is optimistic about growth opportunities in emerging markets and has the potential to increase investments in emerging markets in the future.</strong>According to the media interview with the chairman of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Abu Dhabi has been overweight with emerging markets represented by China in the past 15 years, due to the continuous growth trend of emerging market economy and population, and the continuous strengthening of these markets' opening to foreign investors.</p><p><strong>3. \"Patient capital\" is impatient in A shares?</strong></p><p><strong>Since 2010, the industries covered by Abu Dhabi's A-share investment are mainly medicine and biology, non-ferrous metals, architectural decoration, chemicals, machinery and equipment, etc. From the perspective of the industries in which the top-ranked companies are located, the upstream manufacturing industry appears in the investment list. The frequency is high.</strong></p><p>The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority said its investment team focuses on investing in companies with strong management teams, reasonable valuations and growth potential.</p><p>In terms of timing, in the past, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority preferred reverse operation. Comparing the market value of A-share portfolio of CSI 300 and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, it can be found that since Abu Dhabi Investment Authority increased its A-share investment, the market value of its portfolio has not converged with the trend of CSI 300, and even the opposite trend often appears.</p><p>In the first half of 2015, when the A-share market was frenetic, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority considered it from a long-term perspective, and did not blindly increase its investment in China's overheated market, but still adopted relatively stable investment methods to maintain its shareholding scale.</p><p>Therefore, the asset size of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority did not suffer a significant reduction in 2015. When the A-share market experienced a decline for nearly a year and was at a relative bottom, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority re-increased its investment in the A-share market and bought stocks on dips. At this time, the A-share shareholding scale and market value of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority also ushered in a small peak.</p><p>Then, since 2016, the A-share market has rebounded, while Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has continuously reduced its holdings and reduced its asset scale. It was not until the A-share market ushered in another low point in the second half of 2018 that the shareholding size of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority reached another small peak.</p><p><strong>In the past, when the A-share market was overheated, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority invested cautiously and even reduced its holdings; When the A-share market is at the bottom stage, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is increasing its layout and constantly buying.</strong></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d72367661ee8a9293d43d0300e37d35\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"724\"/></p><p>Although the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is a long-term investor and the market describes the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority as \"patient capital\", it does not hold specific stocks for a long time when making A-share investments.<strong>Among the A-share companies invested by Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, only a few have held shares for more than three years.</strong></p><p>The holding period is not long, and the research on the A-share market may not be enough. Middle Eastern tycoons Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia still opted to open Chinese offices during the pandemic, illustrating this trend.</p><p>According to reports, Bank of America Securities recently met with investors in the Middle East, and local investors tend to make medium and long-term deployments for the Chinese mainland market. Local sovereign wealth funds already have teams dedicated to investing in Mainland China, some of which have recently established relevant investment teams in Beijing and Singapore.</p><p><strong>In recent years, local tyrants in the Middle East have increased their investment in the A-share market, and hundreds of billion petrochemical giants have introduced local tyrants in the Middle East.</strong>On March 27th, Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco spent 24.6 billion yuan to buy 10% of Rongsheng Petrochemical's shares, which was converted to 24.13 yuan per share. According to the closing price of the day, the premium of this acquisition is nearly 90%.</p><p>As local tyrants in the Middle East overweight China, domestic venture capital institutions fly to the Middle East to find money. More than 4,000 global millionaires were expected to flood to Dubai last year, far more than 1,300 in 2019.</p><p>In 2021, the bilateral trade volume between China and Arab countries exceeded the US$300 billion mark, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 37%. China is Saudi Arabia's largest trading partner. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has become China's largest trading partner in North Africa.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0qIbIsgimZ0N8fJQTV013w\">ETF进化论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe8ba21c8b5ac2b562fdf822ed7fcb2","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0qIbIsgimZ0N8fJQTV013w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150662233","content_text":"2006年有一则新闻令人印象深刻——中东客6亿元狂扫上海顶级豪宅。来自中东的基金 Gateway Capital，斥资约6亿元人民币，买下上海市中心新天地----翠湖天地御苑二期102 套住房，每平方米成交均价4万元人民币。翠湖天地御苑二期二手房2022年成交价格达到26.4万每平方米。自20世纪70年代爆发两次“石油危机”后，多年来石油价格持续高涨使得中东阿拉伯这些外汇国家的收入大增，为了平滑消费以及为后代保留财富，众多阿拉伯国家开始兴起设立主权财富基金开启全球布局。阿拉伯海湾国家的10大主权财富基金总资产规模达3.7万亿美元，其中阿布扎比投资局（ADIA）的资产位居全球第三、阿拉伯地区之首。根据全球主权财富基金数据平台Global SWF的数据，阿布扎比投资局规模达到9930亿美元；其次是科威特投资局，规模超过7690亿美元。中东土豪投资动向，备受全球瞩目。1、揭秘中东土豪阿布扎比投资局是中东地区最大的主权财富基金，也是全球第三大的主权财富基金，其资金来源阿布扎比酋长国政府，主要为该国的石油收益。为了抵御石油价格波动对经济的冲击，也出于对油气资源耗尽后国家命运的担忧，中东地区的国家纷纷发起主权财富基金寻求经济出路，将不可再生资产转换为更多样化的资产组合，实现为下一代储蓄的目的。1976年，阿布扎比酋长国成立了阿布扎比投资局，是中东众多主权财富基金中历史最悠久、规模最大的一家。在过去40多年的发展过程中，阿布扎比投资局一直坚持的管理目的是寻求经济出路，将不可再生资产转换为更多样化的资产组合。阿布扎比投资局的20年年化回报率在5%-8%的区间浮动，30年年化回报率在6%-9%的区间波动。阿布扎比投资局可以称得上是最神秘的主权投资基金，行事低调，不披露自己的资产价值，投资方法与投资组合也未公开过。美国前驻阿联酋大使戴维·马克说：“在阿联酋国内，阿布扎比投资局基本上不对公众披露什么信息，也很少招致什么非议，他们更不做广告。”2、阿布扎比投资局扫货A股阿布扎比投资局是我们的老朋友了，早在1992年，当中国市场首次向海外投资者开放的时候，阿布扎比投资局就开始在中国投资了，至今已有30年之久。目前，阿布扎比投资局在A股、B股、房地产投资和私募股权领域均有涉足。从近期陆续披露的上市公司年报看，阿布扎比投资局在2022年末继续扫货A股。截至4月13日，在已披露年报的上市公司中，阿布扎比投资局的身影出现在12家A股上市公司的前十大流通股东名单，持仓A股市值超58亿元，分别为紫金矿业、东方财富、东方雨虹、中国神华、大全能源、北新建材、生益科技、招商积余、环旭电子、浦东金桥、健康元和百隆东方。(本文内容均为客观数据信息罗列，不构成任何投资建议）具体来看，与2022年三季度末相比，2022年末阿布扎比投资局首次出现在中国神华、紫金矿业、东方雨虹前十大流通股东名单上，年末分别持有约1829万股、1.63亿股、2368万股。四季度末，阿布扎比投资局对东方财富、环旭电子、百隆东方分别增持约716万股、61万股、17万股;对北新建材、健康元、大全能源、浦东金桥分别减持约12万股、41万股、524万股、74.2万股。2022年年报还未披露完毕。从2022年3季度上市公司报告看，去年3季度，阿布达比进入东方财富、格力电器、大全能源、海大集团、三花智控、先导智能、恒立液压、老百姓、北新建材、通化东宝等26家上市公司十大股东明细，期末持仓市值达73.16亿。阿布扎比对新兴市场的增长机会持乐观态度，并有可能在未来增加对新兴市场的投资。根据媒体对阿布扎比投资局董事长的采访内容，过去15年中阿布达比一直超配了以中国为代表的新兴市场，其原因是新兴市场经济和人口持续增长的趋势，以及这些市场持续加强对外国投资者开放。3、“有耐心的资本”在A股没耐心了？2010年至今，阿布扎比对A股投资涵盖的行业主要为医药生物、有色金属、建筑装饰、化工、机械设备等，从排名靠前的公司所处行业看，上游制造业在投资名单中出现的频率较高。阿布扎比投资局表示，其投资团队专注于投资拥有强大管理团队、估值合理、具有增长潜力的公司。在择时方面，过去阿布扎比投资局偏好逆向操作，对比沪深300和阿布扎比投资局的A股投资组合市值可以发现，自阿布扎比投资局加大A股投资以来，其投资组合市值与沪深300走势方向并不趋同，甚至常常出现相反趋势。2015年上半年，A股市场狂热之际，阿布扎比投资局以长期的眼光进行考量，并没有盲目加大在中国过热市场上的投资，而仍采取较为稳健的投资手段，维持着持股规模。因此，2015年阿布扎比投资局的资产规模并没有遭受较大幅度的缩减。而当A股市场在经历了近一年的下跌，处于相对底部之际，阿布扎比投资局重新加大了对A股市场的投资，逢低买入股票，此时阿布扎比投资局的A股持股规模和持股市值也迎来了小高峰。而后2016年开始，A股市场有所回升，而阿布扎比投资局却不断减持，缩小资产规模。直至A股市场于2018年下半年迎来又一个低点时，阿布扎比投资局的持股规模才又出现了一个小高峰。过去A股市场过热时，阿布扎比投资局谨慎投资，甚至有所减持；在A股市场处于底部阶段时，阿布扎比投资局则在加大布局，不断买进。尽管阿布扎比投资局是一个长期投资者，市场将阿布扎比投资局描述为“有耐心的资本”，但其在进行A股投资时，对特定股票的持有时间并不长。在阿布扎比投资局投资过的A股公司中，仅有很少公司持股时间超3年。持股周期不长，可能对A股市场研究还不够。中东土豪阿布扎比和沙特在疫情期间仍选择开设中国办公室，说明了这种趋势。据报道，美银证券近期与中东投资者会面，当地投资者对中国内地市场倾向于进行中长期部署。当地的主权财富基金已有专门投资中国内地市场的团队，部分于近期在北京和新加坡建立相关投资团队。中东土豪近年来在加大A股市场的投资，千亿石化巨头引入中东土豪。3月27日，沙特石油巨头沙特阿美花费246亿人民币买下荣盛石化10%的股份，折算下来每股成本为24.13元。按照当日的收盘价计算，这笔收购溢价近9成。在中东土豪加码中国之际，国内创投机构则扎堆飞中东找钱。去年预计逾4000位全球百万富翁涌入迪拜，远远超过2019年的1300位。2021年，中国与阿拉伯国家双边贸易额突破3000亿美元大关，同比增长约37%。中国是沙特最大的贸易伙伴国。与此同时，沙特也已经成为中国在北非地区最大的贸易伙伴。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":100666191,"gmtCreate":1619610198813,"gmtModify":1704726734880,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/100666191","repostId":"1168466915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168466915","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619609260,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168466915?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-28 19:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Yum Brands Global Same Store Sales Up 9% in Q1","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168466915","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"百胜餐饮集团公布2021年第一季度业绩：\n第一季度营收14.86亿美元，市场预期14.54亿美元，去年同期12.63亿美元。\n第一季度净利润（亿美元）：3.26，预期：2.62，前值：0.83。\n第一","content":"<p>Yum Brands Announces First Quarter 2021 Results:</p><p>First-quarter revenue was $1.486 billion, compared to market expectations of $1.454 billion and $1.263 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>First Quarter Net Income (US$ million):<b>3.26，</b>Expected: 2.62, previous value: 0.83.</p><p>Global same-store sales rose 9% year-over-year in the first quarter, compared to market expectations of 9.7% growth.</p><p>In the first quarter, KFC's revenue rose 11% year-over-year, and Pizza Hut's revenue rose 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff4bbbdd791898eb0a4fdca0553574d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yum Brands Global Same Store Sales Up 9% in Q1</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYum Brands Global Same Store Sales Up 9% in Q1\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-28 19:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yum Brands Announces First Quarter 2021 Results:</p><p>First-quarter revenue was $1.486 billion, compared to market expectations of $1.454 billion and $1.263 billion in the same period last year.</p><p>First Quarter Net Income (US$ million):<b>3.26，</b>Expected: 2.62, previous value: 0.83.</p><p>Global same-store sales rose 9% year-over-year in the first quarter, compared to market expectations of 9.7% growth.</p><p>In the first quarter, KFC's revenue rose 11% year-over-year, and Pizza Hut's revenue rose 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff4bbbdd791898eb0a4fdca0553574d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5143d74b8318bad5956eede9f4c79af","relate_stocks":{"YUM":"Yum Brands","YUMC":"百胜中国"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168466915","content_text":"百胜餐饮集团公布2021年第一季度业绩：\n第一季度营收14.86亿美元，市场预期14.54亿美元，去年同期12.63亿美元。\n第一季度净利润（亿美元）：3.26，预期：2.62，前值：0.83。\n第一季度全球同店销售额同比增长9%，市场预期增长9.7%。\n第一季度肯德基营收同比增长11%，必胜客营收增长7%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YUM":0.9,"YUMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953172035,"gmtCreate":1673199827127,"gmtModify":1676538798408,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953172035","repostId":"2301176455","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2301176455","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673176984,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2301176455?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-08 19:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"\"Sister Wood\" Singing Multi Tesla Again: Share Price Will Soar Nearly Fourfold By 2026!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301176455","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"当地时间周五，特斯拉坚定多头凯茜-伍德旗下的方舟投资管理公司对这家电动汽车制造商的长期目标股价给出了新的看法，认为该股到2026年将上涨近四倍，达到500美元。这还是一个相当保守的估计，只是基于特斯拉","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Friday local time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Ark Investment Management, owned by staunch bull Cathy Wood, has given a fresh take on the EV maker's long-term price target, seeing the stock rise nearly quadrupled to $500 by 2026. That's still a fairly conservative estimate, just based on Tesla's EV business.</p><p>Based solely on Tesla's EV business, Ark has set its 2026 price target at $500 per share, according to Tasha Keeney, an analyst at the company. This projection is adjusted for the 3-for-1 stock split effective August 25, 2022.</p><p>Last April, Ark had set Tesla's 2026 price target (before the split) at $4,600.</p><p>Gini noted that Ark's new price target removes autonomous driving and any form of ride-hailing business from its valuation framework for Tesla. And the company believes that these two factors will drive Tesla's value beyond 60% over the next five years.</p><p>She noted that a price target of $500 per share would mean Tesla shares would surge nearly four-fold at current levels. Tesla shares rose 2.47% to close at $113.06 on Friday.</p><p>Reiterating analysts' sentiments, Wood said Tesla doesn't need an autonomous ride-hailing service to be successful, adding: \"The opportunity for electric vehicles alone is huge.\"</p><p>Tesla's goal is to keep prices down and increase the use of electric vehicles, the fund manager said. At an investor day on March 1, Tesla CEO Elon Musk will likely announce a reduction in the pricing of the next-generation electric vehicle to $25,000, she said.</p><p>Based on the $25,000 historical demand response for gasoline-powered vehicles, Ark expects the number of electric vehicles to expand from around 8.5 million in 2022 to around 60 million over the next five years, representing about 75% of the market share, Wood said. That estimate may be conservative, she added.</p><p>Tesla is three to four years ahead of rivals in battery costs, dominating chip design and data assets for autonomous driving, the analyst said. To explain this further, she said it was like putting<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Mobile Phone Chip Design and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">Nokia</a>Motorola,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">Ericsson</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Make a comparison.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"Sister Wood\" Singing Multi Tesla Again: Share Price Will Soar Nearly Fourfold By 2026!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"Sister Wood\" Singing Multi Tesla Again: Share Price Will Soar Nearly Fourfold By 2026!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">环球市场播报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-08 19:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Friday local time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Ark Investment Management, owned by staunch bull Cathy Wood, has given a fresh take on the EV maker's long-term price target, seeing the stock rise nearly quadrupled to $500 by 2026. That's still a fairly conservative estimate, just based on Tesla's EV business.</p><p>Based solely on Tesla's EV business, Ark has set its 2026 price target at $500 per share, according to Tasha Keeney, an analyst at the company. This projection is adjusted for the 3-for-1 stock split effective August 25, 2022.</p><p>Last April, Ark had set Tesla's 2026 price target (before the split) at $4,600.</p><p>Gini noted that Ark's new price target removes autonomous driving and any form of ride-hailing business from its valuation framework for Tesla. And the company believes that these two factors will drive Tesla's value beyond 60% over the next five years.</p><p>She noted that a price target of $500 per share would mean Tesla shares would surge nearly four-fold at current levels. Tesla shares rose 2.47% to close at $113.06 on Friday.</p><p>Reiterating analysts' sentiments, Wood said Tesla doesn't need an autonomous ride-hailing service to be successful, adding: \"The opportunity for electric vehicles alone is huge.\"</p><p>Tesla's goal is to keep prices down and increase the use of electric vehicles, the fund manager said. At an investor day on March 1, Tesla CEO Elon Musk will likely announce a reduction in the pricing of the next-generation electric vehicle to $25,000, she said.</p><p>Based on the $25,000 historical demand response for gasoline-powered vehicles, Ark expects the number of electric vehicles to expand from around 8.5 million in 2022 to around 60 million over the next five years, representing about 75% of the market share, Wood said. That estimate may be conservative, she added.</p><p>Tesla is three to four years ahead of rivals in battery costs, dominating chip design and data assets for autonomous driving, the analyst said. To explain this further, she said it was like putting<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Mobile Phone Chip Design and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HAF.UK\">Nokia</a>Motorola,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ERIC\">Ericsson</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Make a comparison.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-01-08/doc-imxznhkq2482927.shtml\">环球市场播报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9782c8f9c98821504f9514296a0d19da","relate_stocks":{"LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2023-01-08/doc-imxznhkq2482927.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2301176455","content_text":"当地时间周五，特斯拉坚定多头凯茜-伍德旗下的方舟投资管理公司对这家电动汽车制造商的长期目标股价给出了新的看法，认为该股到2026年将上涨近四倍，达到500美元。这还是一个相当保守的估计，只是基于特斯拉的电动汽车业务。该公司分析师塔莎·基尼（Tasha Keeney）表示，仅基于特斯拉的电动汽车业务，方舟将其2026年的目标价定在每股500美元。这一预测是根据2022年8月25日生效的3拆1的股票分拆进行调整的。去年4月，方舟曾将特斯拉2026年目标价（拆股前）定在4600美元。基尼指出，方舟新的目标价将自动驾驶和任何形式的叫车业务从其对特斯拉的估值框架中剔除。而该公司认为，这两个因素将在未来五年推动特斯拉超过60%的价值。她指出，每股500美元的目标价意味着特斯拉股价将在目前水平上飙升近四倍。特斯拉股价周五上涨2.47%，收于113.06美元。伍德重申了分析师的观点，她说，特斯拉不需要自动叫车服务就能取得成功，并补充说：“单是电动汽车的机会就非常巨大。”这位基金经理表示，特斯拉的目标是压低价格，增加电动汽车的使用。她说，在3月1日的投资者日上，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克可能会宣布将下一代电动汽车的定价降至2.5万美元。伍德表示，根据汽油动力汽车2.5万美元的历史需求反应，方舟预计电动汽车数量将在未来五年内从2022年的850万辆左右扩大到6000万辆左右，约占市场份额的75%。她补充说，这一估计可能是保守的。这位分析师表示，特斯拉在电池成本方面领先竞争对手三到四年，在芯片设计和用于自动驾驶的数据资产方面独领风骚。为了进一步解释这一点，她说这就像把苹果的智能手机芯片设计与诺基亚、摩托罗拉、爱立信和黑莓进行比较。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988895352,"gmtCreate":1666711274176,"gmtModify":1676537794267,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988895352","repostId":"1131897083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131897083","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666710614,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1131897083?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose generally, Tesla rose more than 5%, Li Auto rose 11%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131897083","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周二盘中，美股新能源车股涨幅扩大，特斯拉涨超5%，理想汽车涨11%，蔚来、小鹏汽车涨超8%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, the gains of new energy vehicle stocks in U.S. stocks expanded,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It rose more than 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578f273232d90d5ea35b562472f8c8f1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550e311602c3ce18b996c1fd442cde0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose generally, Tesla rose more than 5%, Li Auto rose 11%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. new energy vehicle stocks rose generally, Tesla rose more than 5%, Li Auto rose 11%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-25 23:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Tuesday, the gains of new energy vehicle stocks in U.S. stocks expanded,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Up more than 5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Up 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>It rose more than 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578f273232d90d5ea35b562472f8c8f1\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d550e311602c3ce18b996c1fd442cde0\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/470c7cb7483c270761f6679ffa0ee057","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131897083","content_text":"周二盘中，美股新能源车股涨幅扩大，特斯拉涨超5%，理想汽车涨11%，蔚来、小鹏汽车涨超8%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":696,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916597322,"gmtCreate":1664622954666,"gmtModify":1676537486053,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916597322","repostId":"1164598982","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164598982","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1664617915,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164598982?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-01 17:51","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"XPeng Automobile delivered a total of 8,468 units in September, and the cumulative delivery volume from January to September exceeded that of last year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164598982","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2022年10月1日，我们公布最新交付成绩。2022年9月，小鹏汽车总交付8,468台。其中，小鹏P7交付4,634台，小鹏P5交付2,417台，小鹏G3i交付1,233台。三季度小鹏汽车总交付29,","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On October 1, 2022, we announced our latest delivery results. September 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Total deliveries of 8,468 units. Of these, 4,634 were delivered for the XPeng P7, 2,417 for the XPeng P5 and 1,233 for the XPeng G3i. In the third quarter, XPeng delivered a total of 29,570 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%. From January to September this year,<b>XPeng vehicles have delivered a total of 98,553 units, up 75% year over year</b>，<b>More than full year 2021 deliveries</b>。</p><p>On September 21, XPeng Motors' new flagship SUV, the XPeng G9, was officially launched.<b>We completed the first deliveries of 184 units of the XPeng G9 in September, which also marks that production preparations for the G9 are fully in place to accelerate the batch deliveries in October</b>。 At present, XPeng G9 exhibition cars and test drives have also arrived all over the country one after another. Pengyou are welcome to visit the store or make an online appointment through multiple channels to taste and test drive your favorite XPeng G9.</p><p>In order to let Pengyou have a better car experience, XPeng Automobile in September<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Heavy achievements have been made in assisted driving and ultra-fast charging. XPeng NGP intelligent navigation assisted driving has been piloted in Guangzhou, which is also the first time that high-order intelligent assisted driving has been mass-produced in urban scenes in China. In the same month, the first batch of S4 ultra-fast charging stations of XPeng Automobile went online in five cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Wuhan. It is expected that by the end of this year, we will build more than 50 S4 ultra-fast charging stations, covering the core business district of the city.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30b70c01de05aca364fa916952c3dcf7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Automobile delivered a total of 8,468 units in September, and the cumulative delivery volume from January to September exceeded that of last year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Automobile delivered a total of 8,468 units in September, and the cumulative delivery volume from January to September exceeded that of last year\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-01 17:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On October 1, 2022, we announced our latest delivery results. September 2022,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>Total deliveries of 8,468 units. Of these, 4,634 were delivered for the XPeng P7, 2,417 for the XPeng P5 and 1,233 for the XPeng G3i. In the third quarter, XPeng delivered a total of 29,570 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 15%. From January to September this year,<b>XPeng vehicles have delivered a total of 98,553 units, up 75% year over year</b>，<b>More than full year 2021 deliveries</b>。</p><p>On September 21, XPeng Motors' new flagship SUV, the XPeng G9, was officially launched.<b>We completed the first deliveries of 184 units of the XPeng G9 in September, which also marks that production preparations for the G9 are fully in place to accelerate the batch deliveries in October</b>。 At present, XPeng G9 exhibition cars and test drives have also arrived all over the country one after another. Pengyou are welcome to visit the store or make an online appointment through multiple channels to taste and test drive your favorite XPeng G9.</p><p>In order to let Pengyou have a better car experience, XPeng Automobile in September<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Heavy achievements have been made in assisted driving and ultra-fast charging. XPeng NGP intelligent navigation assisted driving has been piloted in Guangzhou, which is also the first time that high-order intelligent assisted driving has been mass-produced in urban scenes in China. In the same month, the first batch of S4 ultra-fast charging stations of XPeng Automobile went online in five cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Wuhan. It is expected that by the end of this year, we will build more than 50 S4 ultra-fast charging stations, covering the core business district of the city.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30b70c01de05aca364fa916952c3dcf7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"2337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a7cf240033f083a329240e6179df017","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK4555":"新能源车","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK1587":"次新股","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164598982","content_text":"2022年10月1日，我们公布最新交付成绩。2022年9月，小鹏汽车总交付8,468台。其中，小鹏P7交付4,634台，小鹏P5交付2,417台，小鹏G3i交付1,233台。三季度小鹏汽车总交付29,570台，同比增长15%。今年1-9月，小鹏汽车已累计交付98,553台，同比增长75%，超过2021年全年交付量。9月21日，小鹏汽车全新旗舰SUV小鹏G9正式上市。9月我们完成了184台小鹏G9的首批交付，这也标志着G9的生产准备工作已全面就绪，以加速迎接10月的批量交付。目前，小鹏G9展车和试驾车也已经陆续到达全国各地，欢迎鹏友们光临门店或通过多渠道的线上预约，品鉴试驾你心仪的小鹏G9。为了让鹏友们有更好的用车体验，9月小鹏汽车在智能辅助驾驶和超快充方面均有重磅成果落地。小鹏城市NGP智能导航辅助驾驶已在广州开始试点，这也是国内首次实现高阶智能辅助驾驶在城市场景中量产落地。同月，小鹏汽车首批S4超快充站在北京、上海、广州、深圳和武汉5城上线。预计到今年底我们将建成超过50座S4超快充站，覆盖城市核心商圈。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EVS.SI":0.9,"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981049076,"gmtCreate":1666356629495,"gmtModify":1676537746050,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981049076","repostId":"1141051861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":576,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916001582,"gmtCreate":1664466041946,"gmtModify":1676537461015,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916001582","repostId":"1110631384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110631384","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664464935,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110631384?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-29 23:22","market":"uk","language":"zh","title":"Epic turmoil in the UK bond market. Why is the biggest \"powder keg\" pension?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110631384","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"若养老基金大规模撤出英国国债，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Bu Shuqing</p><p>According to Wall Street News, one of the most important reasons for the Bank of England's intervention in the bond market on Wednesday is that British pension funds are facing large-scale margin calls. Investment banks and fund managers have warned the Bank of England in recent days that the margin call requirement could trigger a crash in the UK bond market, media cited people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The reason why pension funds can have a devastating power on the British bond market is that they hedge their debts with high leverage through debt-driven investment strategies. With the yield of gilt (Treasury Bond issued by the British government) continuing to soar, pension funds with trillion pounds of assets may sell gilt on a large scale to pay huge margin.</p><p>LDI + Highly Leveraged Hedges</p><p>Liability-driven investing (LDI) is the first big thunder laid by pension funds for the UK bond market.</p><p>Most pension funds in the UK have long used liability-driven investments to hedge liabilities (future payments to pension clients), a strategy through which pension funds can match their liabilities with the scheme's assets.</p><p>This can be illustrated in a simple model:</p><p>If a pension fund is required to pay a £1m pension to a client in 2046, the fund can buy gilt bonds that mature that year. If high-quality corporate bonds with higher yields are bought, the fund can use the extra money to invest in the stock market, real estate or other growth assets in addition to the bond purchase. Further,<b>Pension funds can use interest rate swaps or inflation swaps to match long-term liabilities.</b>This means that the pension fund only needs to invest the initial margin for trading, and the change direction of the Treasury Bond yield determines whether the fund pays or harvests the margin. Specifically, when the yield of Treasury Bond rises, the pension fund needs to pay a margin to the counterparty, and instead wins the margin of the counterparty. Therefore, pension funds that hedge through interest rate swaps face some leverage.</p><p>How big is this leverage?</p><p>Of the top 600 pension funds in the UK (with total assets of around £700bn), according to a 2019 survey conducted by the UK's pension regulator,<b>62% of pensions are leveraged through interest rate swaps, which account for 43% of all leveraged investments, and the maximum leverage level allowed is 1x to 7x!</b></p><p>Once yields go up, pension funds will face margin calls and be forced to offer more collateral.</p><p>Indeed, there were media reports as early as July that UK pension funds were facing margin calls. Over the past year, UK Treasury Bond yields have continued to rise, with the UK 30-year Treasury Bond yield soaring from 1.12% in October last year to 3.93% in July this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7bfd9ed4efd73df53dfa7fe47cb6c4f\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Britain's bond market may face destruction if pension funds withdraw on a large scale</p><p>The huge scale of funds is the second thunder laid by pension funds for the UK bond market.</p><p>While extremely risky, the LDI strategy helped UK pension funds expand rapidly in the days of falling gilt yields. UK assets held by UK pension funds through LDI strategies tripled to £1.5trillion in the 10 years to 2020, according to the Investment Association.</p><p>What concept is this number equivalent to?</p><p>After removing the Treasury Bond held by the Bank of England,<b>Assets held by pension funds account for 40% of the UK's institutional asset management market, two-thirds of the UK's GDP and the size of the entire gilt market.</b></p><p>It is unclear exactly how large the pension fund holds British Treasury Bond, but analysts say it is huge<b>If pension funds withdraw from the British Treasury Bond on a large scale, the British bond market may face a disaster.</b></p><p>Fuse: Britain's most aggressive tax cuts in half a century</p><p>On Friday, the UK announced its most aggressive tax cuts in half a century, which set off a sell-off wave in the UK gilt market, with the UK's 30-year Treasury Bond yield surging 120 basis points in just a few days.</p><p>Treasury Bond yields have soared, and the margin calls facing pension funds have risen.</p><p>Ben Gold, head of investments at pensions advisory firm XPS, estimates that UK pension funds have received at least £1bn of margin calls since the Government unveiled plans for tax cuts. He said about two-thirds of the 400 pension schemes his firm advises on have been affected.</p><p>In order to pay a huge deposit,<b>UK pension funds may have to dump large amounts of gilts and other liquid assets, further weighing on the UK bond market and pushing up Treasury Bond yields, which will cause the margin to be paid to snowball.</b></p><p>In this regard, Kerrin Rosenberg, chief investment officer of Cardano Investment Company, said:</p><p><b>Had the Bank of England not intervened today, gilt yields could have risen from 4.5% in the morning to 7-8%, in which case around 90% of UK pension funds would have run out of collateral and they would have been wiped out!</b>As previously analyzed by Wall Street, in order to prevent the large-scale escape of pension funds from the British Treasury Bond from bringing a fatal blow to the bond market, the Bank of England reversed its long-standing \"non-intervention\" strategy and announced unlimited purchase of British Treasury Bond.</p><p>The Bank of England issued a statement on Wednesday saying it would temporarily buy long-term UK Treasury Bond \"at any scale necessary\" to restore order to the UK bond market. Subsequently, the Bank of England said it would buy traditional British Treasury Bond with a remaining maturity of more than 20 years in the secondary market.</p><p>Affected by this, the British Treasury Bond skyrocketed, and the British 30-year Treasury Bond yield once fell by 100 basis points.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Epic turmoil in the UK bond market. Why is the biggest \"powder keg\" pension?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEpic turmoil in the UK bond market. Why is the biggest \"powder keg\" pension?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-29 23:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Bu Shuqing</p><p>According to Wall Street News, one of the most important reasons for the Bank of England's intervention in the bond market on Wednesday is that British pension funds are facing large-scale margin calls. Investment banks and fund managers have warned the Bank of England in recent days that the margin call requirement could trigger a crash in the UK bond market, media cited people familiar with the matter.</p><p>The reason why pension funds can have a devastating power on the British bond market is that they hedge their debts with high leverage through debt-driven investment strategies. With the yield of gilt (Treasury Bond issued by the British government) continuing to soar, pension funds with trillion pounds of assets may sell gilt on a large scale to pay huge margin.</p><p>LDI + Highly Leveraged Hedges</p><p>Liability-driven investing (LDI) is the first big thunder laid by pension funds for the UK bond market.</p><p>Most pension funds in the UK have long used liability-driven investments to hedge liabilities (future payments to pension clients), a strategy through which pension funds can match their liabilities with the scheme's assets.</p><p>This can be illustrated in a simple model:</p><p>If a pension fund is required to pay a £1m pension to a client in 2046, the fund can buy gilt bonds that mature that year. If high-quality corporate bonds with higher yields are bought, the fund can use the extra money to invest in the stock market, real estate or other growth assets in addition to the bond purchase. Further,<b>Pension funds can use interest rate swaps or inflation swaps to match long-term liabilities.</b>This means that the pension fund only needs to invest the initial margin for trading, and the change direction of the Treasury Bond yield determines whether the fund pays or harvests the margin. Specifically, when the yield of Treasury Bond rises, the pension fund needs to pay a margin to the counterparty, and instead wins the margin of the counterparty. Therefore, pension funds that hedge through interest rate swaps face some leverage.</p><p>How big is this leverage?</p><p>Of the top 600 pension funds in the UK (with total assets of around £700bn), according to a 2019 survey conducted by the UK's pension regulator,<b>62% of pensions are leveraged through interest rate swaps, which account for 43% of all leveraged investments, and the maximum leverage level allowed is 1x to 7x!</b></p><p>Once yields go up, pension funds will face margin calls and be forced to offer more collateral.</p><p>Indeed, there were media reports as early as July that UK pension funds were facing margin calls. Over the past year, UK Treasury Bond yields have continued to rise, with the UK 30-year Treasury Bond yield soaring from 1.12% in October last year to 3.93% in July this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7bfd9ed4efd73df53dfa7fe47cb6c4f\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Britain's bond market may face destruction if pension funds withdraw on a large scale</p><p>The huge scale of funds is the second thunder laid by pension funds for the UK bond market.</p><p>While extremely risky, the LDI strategy helped UK pension funds expand rapidly in the days of falling gilt yields. UK assets held by UK pension funds through LDI strategies tripled to £1.5trillion in the 10 years to 2020, according to the Investment Association.</p><p>What concept is this number equivalent to?</p><p>After removing the Treasury Bond held by the Bank of England,<b>Assets held by pension funds account for 40% of the UK's institutional asset management market, two-thirds of the UK's GDP and the size of the entire gilt market.</b></p><p>It is unclear exactly how large the pension fund holds British Treasury Bond, but analysts say it is huge<b>If pension funds withdraw from the British Treasury Bond on a large scale, the British bond market may face a disaster.</b></p><p>Fuse: Britain's most aggressive tax cuts in half a century</p><p>On Friday, the UK announced its most aggressive tax cuts in half a century, which set off a sell-off wave in the UK gilt market, with the UK's 30-year Treasury Bond yield surging 120 basis points in just a few days.</p><p>Treasury Bond yields have soared, and the margin calls facing pension funds have risen.</p><p>Ben Gold, head of investments at pensions advisory firm XPS, estimates that UK pension funds have received at least £1bn of margin calls since the Government unveiled plans for tax cuts. He said about two-thirds of the 400 pension schemes his firm advises on have been affected.</p><p>In order to pay a huge deposit,<b>UK pension funds may have to dump large amounts of gilts and other liquid assets, further weighing on the UK bond market and pushing up Treasury Bond yields, which will cause the margin to be paid to snowball.</b></p><p>In this regard, Kerrin Rosenberg, chief investment officer of Cardano Investment Company, said:</p><p><b>Had the Bank of England not intervened today, gilt yields could have risen from 4.5% in the morning to 7-8%, in which case around 90% of UK pension funds would have run out of collateral and they would have been wiped out!</b>As previously analyzed by Wall Street, in order to prevent the large-scale escape of pension funds from the British Treasury Bond from bringing a fatal blow to the bond market, the Bank of England reversed its long-standing \"non-intervention\" strategy and announced unlimited purchase of British Treasury Bond.</p><p>The Bank of England issued a statement on Wednesday saying it would temporarily buy long-term UK Treasury Bond \"at any scale necessary\" to restore order to the UK bond market. Subsequently, the Bank of England said it would buy traditional British Treasury Bond with a remaining maturity of more than 20 years in the secondary market.</p><p>Affected by this, the British Treasury Bond skyrocketed, and the British 30-year Treasury Bond yield once fell by 100 basis points.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/741a7a9152b273ef524b8d371b44958e","relate_stocks":{"EWU":"英国ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3671538","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1110631384","content_text":"作者：卜淑情据华尔街见闻此前提及，英国央行周三出手干预债市最重要的一个原因在于英国养老基金面临大规模追加保证金的要求。媒体援引知情人士透露，投资银行和基金经理最近几天警告英国央行，追加保证金的要求可能引发英国债市崩盘。养老基金之所以能对英国债市产生摧枯拉朽的破坏力，是因为它通过负债驱动型投资策略对其债务进行了高杠杆对冲，在金边债券（英国政府发行的国债）收益率持续飙升的情况下，为支付巨额保证金，持有万亿英镑资产的养老基金可能会大规模抛售金边债券。LDI+高杠杆对冲负债驱动型投资（LDI）是养老基金为英国债市埋下的第一颗大雷。长期以来，英国多数养老基金一直采用负债驱动型投资来对冲负债（未来支付给养老金客户的款项），通过该策略，养老基金可以将其负债与计划的资产相匹配。这可以通过一个简单的模型中说明：如果养老基金需要在2046年向客户支付100万英镑的养老金，那么基金可以购买于该年到期的金边债券。如果买到优质的收益率更高的企业债券，基金可以在购买债券之余使用额外的资金投资股市、房地产或其他成长型资产。更进一步，养老基金可以使用利率掉期或通胀掉期来匹配长期负债。这就意味着，养老基金只需要投入初始保证金进行交易，而国债收益率变动方向决定该基金是缴纳还是收获保证金。具体来看，在国债收益率上行时，养老基金需要向交易对手缴纳保证金，相反则赢得交易对手的保证金。因此，通过利率掉期进行对冲的养老基金面临一定的杠杆。这个杠杆有多大？根据英国养老金监管机构2019年进行的调查，在英国前600家养老基金（总资产约为7000亿英镑）中，有62%的养老金通过利率掉期进行杠杆投资，利率掉期投资规模占所有杠杆投资的43%，允许的最大杠杆水平为1倍至7倍！一旦收益率上行，养老基金将面临追加保证金的要求，被迫提供更多抵押品。实际上，早在7月就有媒体报道，英国养老基金面临追加保证金通知。在过去一年中，英国国债收益率持续上升，其中英国30年期国债收益率从去年10月的1.12%飙升至今年七月的3.93%。若养老基金大规模撤出，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾庞大的资金规模是养老基金为英国债市埋下的第二颗雷。虽然风险极高，LDI策略在金边债券收益率下降的日子里仍帮助英国养老基金迅速扩张。投资协会（Investment Association）的数据显示，在截至2020年的10年中，英国养老基金通过LDI策略持有的英国资产增加了两倍，达到1.5万亿英镑。这一数字相当于什么概念？除去英格兰银行持有的国债后，养老基金持有的资产占英国机构资产管理市场的40%，占英国GDP的三分之二以及整个金边债券市场的规模。目前尚不清楚养老基金到底持有多大规模的英国国债，但分析认为这一规模十分巨大，如果养老基金大规模撤出英国国债，英国债市或面临灭顶之灾。导火索：英国半世纪以来最激进的减税计划上周五，英国宣布了半个世纪以来最激进的减税计划，该计划在英国金边债券市场掀起了抛售浪潮，英国30年期国债收益率在短短几天内飙升了120个基点。国债收益率飙升，养老基金面临的追加保证金水涨船高。养老金咨询公司XPS投资主管Ben Gold估计，自英国政府公布减税计划以来，英国养老基金已收到至少10亿英镑的追加保证金通知。他表示，在其公司提供咨询服务的400个养老金计划中，大约有三分之二受到了影响。为支付巨额保证金，英国养老基金可能不得不抛售大量金边债券和其他流动资产，进一步使英国债市承压，推高国债收益率，这将导致需缴纳的保证金像滚雪球一样越来越大。对此，卡尔达诺投资公司首席投资官Kerrin Rosenberg表示：如果英国央行今天没有干预，金边债券收益率可能会从早上的4.5%上升到7-8%，在这种情况下，大约90%的英国养老基金将用完抵押品，他们会被消灭！正如华尔街见闻此前分析，为防止养老基金大规模出逃英国国债给债市带来致命打击，英国央行扭转了长期以来的“不干预”策略，并宣布无限量购买英国国债。英国央行周三发布声明称，将“以任何必要的规模”临时购买英国长期国债，以恢复英国债券市场秩序。随后，英国央行表示将在二级市场购买剩余期限超过20年的传统英国国债。受此影响，英国国债暴涨，英国30年期国债收益率一度下行100个基点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9932146718,"gmtCreate":1662905495934,"gmtModify":1676537160665,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9932146718","repostId":"1156732473","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156732473","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662864340,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156732473?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-11 10:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Another \"sweeping gold fever\"! \"Golden and difficult summer\", but the giants took action one after another!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156732473","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。尽管美元的持续走强给黄金带来不小压力，但更喜欢逆势布局的外资巨头们，却已开始出手，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>What does the foreign giant's shot mean? In the eyes of industry analysts, the pessimistic expectation of the current gold market is being fully priced by the market, and gold may usher in a window of bottoming out and rebounding in the future. Although the continuous strength of the US dollar has brought considerable pressure on gold, foreign giants who prefer to layout against the trend have begun to take action and significantly increase their positions in gold ETFs.</p><p>According to the latest semi-annual report of the fund, the private equity products of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, appeared in the top ten holders of many gold ETFs. According to the data, as of the end of June this year, Bridgewater (China) Investment Management Co., Ltd. held 214 million shares of Boshi Gold ETF, Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, with a market value of 814 million yuan.</p><p>What does the foreign giant's shot mean? In the eyes of industry analysts, the pessimistic expectation of the current gold market is being fully priced by the market, and gold may usher in a window of bottoming out and rebounding in the future.</p><p><b>Major institutions are buying gold one after another</b></p><p>According to the semi-annual report of Boshi Gold ETF, as of the end of the first half of the year, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No.3, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No.1 and Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No.2 held 46,624,800 shares, 9,294,200 shares and 8,710,600 shares of the fund respectively, ranking the second, fifth and sixth largest holders respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e9ebb320e0c5cf942975e5d8f6409\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The above three funds of Bridgewater China also appear in the list of top ten holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d923e513e32f394e52f117fd17238ef7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f132a9df386c1583a50ba16302ccabe1\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In fact, in addition to Bridgewater Fund, many domestic and foreign institutions are also \"sweeping goods\" gold ETFs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>At the same time, he appeared in Boshi Gold ETF and Huaan Gold Easy ETF, holding 4,445,200 and 21.1 million shares of these two ETFs respectively.</p><p>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>He and Guosheng Securities appeared in Boshi Gold ETF at the same time, holding a total of 25.67 million shares; Xingquan preferred aggressive three-month holding period hybrid fund fund and Huashang Jiayue steady pension target one-year holding period hybrid sponsored fund fund (FOF) ranked the ninth and tenth largest holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF respectively.</p><p>According to public information, since the beginning of this year, the above three gold ETFs have all achieved positive returns. Especially during the first quarter, with the shock of the global stock market and commodity market, the hedging function of gold was prominent, and gold ETF got good returns.</p><p><b>Gold Price in Short-Term Downturn</b></p><p>It is worth noting that against the background of continuously rising inflation, European and American central banks generally adopt more radical monetary policies to deal with it.</p><p>In June this year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting sharply rate hike by 75 basis points, setting the largest single rate hike in nearly 30 years. The dot plot shows that the follow-up rate hike path is more radical, and the Federal Reserve officially opened the shrinking balance sheet in June, and the real interest rate in the United States rebounded sharply in the second quarter, resulting in the continuous pressure and weakening of the international gold price in the second quarter.</p><p>In this regard, the World Gold Council used \"difficult summer of gold\" to describe the performance of gold prices in the past month. According to statistics from the World Gold Council, as of August, the price of gold fell month-on-month, falling 2% to $1,715.9/oz, which was the fifth consecutive month of decline. The rebound that started in mid-July lost momentum again in mid-August after failing to break through the resistance level of $1,800/oz.</p><p>At the same time, the data shows that from the overall position, 51 tons of global gold ETFs flowed out in August, which is consistent with the performance of gold prices. This is also the fourth consecutive month that gold ETFs have flowed out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91085dcbf94672dadd6ad1d385fbd9ec\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the analysis of the World Gold Council, this performance comes against the background of continuous rising yields and strengthening of the US dollar, and the reason behind it is precisely because the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to further tighten monetary policy.</p><p><b>Bargain Allocation or Good Strategy</b></p><p>On the evening of September 8th, Beijing time, the European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting and announced that the three key interest rates would be raised by 75 basis points. The adjusted interest rates will take effect on September 14th. The ECB said that the current inflation rate is still too high and it expects further rate hike to curb inflation in the future.</p><p>In this regard, the research report of Huatai Futures said that although the European Central Bank rate hike as scheduled and the hawkish attitude of Federal Reserve officials has not changed, it can be seen from the actions of well-known funds such as Bridgewater to increase their holdings of gold ETFs that there is still demand for the allocation of gold assets by institutions at present, and gold can be appropriately allocated on dips.</p><p>According to the World Gold Council, two-thirds of the cumulative inflows of gold ETFs between January and April this year have been offset by recent outflows. Nevertheless, the World Gold Council still believes that gold trading volume is expected to pick up in September.</p><p>\"In August, trading volume in gold fell to $109 billion per day, well below July's level ($149 billion) and the monthly average in the second quarter ($126 billion). As market activity picks up, we will continue to monitor futures positions and ETF flows.\" The World Gold Council said these two indicators are key indicators for observing sentiment in the gold market. They also expect that with the influence of seasonal factors, consumer demand will increase, which may also improve the trading level of gold.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600016\">Minsheng Bank</a>Tang Xiangbin, an analyst in the financial market department, believes that in the short term, the international gold price is still suppressed by the strong US dollar. At present, the international gold price is still in a state of fluctuation at the bottom, and it is expected to gradually rebound after the fourth quarter. \"It is expected that before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September, the international gold price will still fluctuate in the bottom range of $1,680 to $1,740 per ounce. After the boots of the interest rate meeting in September land, it is expected that the international gold price will turn and rebound. It is recommended to enter the market when the international gold price is under pressure and falls below $1,720.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Another \"sweeping gold fever\"! \"Golden and difficult summer\", but the giants took action one after another!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnother \"sweeping gold fever\"! \"Golden and difficult summer\", but the giants took action one after another!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-09-11 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>What does the foreign giant's shot mean? In the eyes of industry analysts, the pessimistic expectation of the current gold market is being fully priced by the market, and gold may usher in a window of bottoming out and rebounding in the future. Although the continuous strength of the US dollar has brought considerable pressure on gold, foreign giants who prefer to layout against the trend have begun to take action and significantly increase their positions in gold ETFs.</p><p>According to the latest semi-annual report of the fund, the private equity products of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, appeared in the top ten holders of many gold ETFs. According to the data, as of the end of June this year, Bridgewater (China) Investment Management Co., Ltd. held 214 million shares of Boshi Gold ETF, Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF, with a market value of 814 million yuan.</p><p>What does the foreign giant's shot mean? In the eyes of industry analysts, the pessimistic expectation of the current gold market is being fully priced by the market, and gold may usher in a window of bottoming out and rebounding in the future.</p><p><b>Major institutions are buying gold one after another</b></p><p>According to the semi-annual report of Boshi Gold ETF, as of the end of the first half of the year, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No.3, Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No.1 and Bridgewater All-Weather Enhanced China Private Securities Investment Fund No.2 held 46,624,800 shares, 9,294,200 shares and 8,710,600 shares of the fund respectively, ranking the second, fifth and sixth largest holders respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84e9ebb320e0c5cf942975e5d8f6409\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The above three funds of Bridgewater China also appear in the list of top ten holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF and E Fund Gold ETF.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d923e513e32f394e52f117fd17238ef7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f132a9df386c1583a50ba16302ccabe1\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In fact, in addition to Bridgewater Fund, many domestic and foreign institutions are also \"sweeping goods\" gold ETFs.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>At the same time, he appeared in Boshi Gold ETF and Huaan Gold Easy ETF, holding 4,445,200 and 21.1 million shares of these two ETFs respectively.</p><p>In addition,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">GF Securities</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">Huatai Securities</a>He and Guosheng Securities appeared in Boshi Gold ETF at the same time, holding a total of 25.67 million shares; Xingquan preferred aggressive three-month holding period hybrid fund fund and Huashang Jiayue steady pension target one-year holding period hybrid sponsored fund fund (FOF) ranked the ninth and tenth largest holders of Huaan Gold Easy ETF respectively.</p><p>According to public information, since the beginning of this year, the above three gold ETFs have all achieved positive returns. Especially during the first quarter, with the shock of the global stock market and commodity market, the hedging function of gold was prominent, and gold ETF got good returns.</p><p><b>Gold Price in Short-Term Downturn</b></p><p>It is worth noting that against the background of continuously rising inflation, European and American central banks generally adopt more radical monetary policies to deal with it.</p><p>In June this year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting sharply rate hike by 75 basis points, setting the largest single rate hike in nearly 30 years. The dot plot shows that the follow-up rate hike path is more radical, and the Federal Reserve officially opened the shrinking balance sheet in June, and the real interest rate in the United States rebounded sharply in the second quarter, resulting in the continuous pressure and weakening of the international gold price in the second quarter.</p><p>In this regard, the World Gold Council used \"difficult summer of gold\" to describe the performance of gold prices in the past month. According to statistics from the World Gold Council, as of August, the price of gold fell month-on-month, falling 2% to $1,715.9/oz, which was the fifth consecutive month of decline. The rebound that started in mid-July lost momentum again in mid-August after failing to break through the resistance level of $1,800/oz.</p><p>At the same time, the data shows that from the overall position, 51 tons of global gold ETFs flowed out in August, which is consistent with the performance of gold prices. This is also the fourth consecutive month that gold ETFs have flowed out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91085dcbf94672dadd6ad1d385fbd9ec\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>According to the analysis of the World Gold Council, this performance comes against the background of continuous rising yields and strengthening of the US dollar, and the reason behind it is precisely because the Federal Reserve reaffirmed its commitment to further tighten monetary policy.</p><p><b>Bargain Allocation or Good Strategy</b></p><p>On the evening of September 8th, Beijing time, the European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting and announced that the three key interest rates would be raised by 75 basis points. The adjusted interest rates will take effect on September 14th. The ECB said that the current inflation rate is still too high and it expects further rate hike to curb inflation in the future.</p><p>In this regard, the research report of Huatai Futures said that although the European Central Bank rate hike as scheduled and the hawkish attitude of Federal Reserve officials has not changed, it can be seen from the actions of well-known funds such as Bridgewater to increase their holdings of gold ETFs that there is still demand for the allocation of gold assets by institutions at present, and gold can be appropriately allocated on dips.</p><p>According to the World Gold Council, two-thirds of the cumulative inflows of gold ETFs between January and April this year have been offset by recent outflows. Nevertheless, the World Gold Council still believes that gold trading volume is expected to pick up in September.</p><p>\"In August, trading volume in gold fell to $109 billion per day, well below July's level ($149 billion) and the monthly average in the second quarter ($126 billion). As market activity picks up, we will continue to monitor futures positions and ETF flows.\" The World Gold Council said these two indicators are key indicators for observing sentiment in the gold market. They also expect that with the influence of seasonal factors, consumer demand will increase, which may also improve the trading level of gold.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600016\">Minsheng Bank</a>Tang Xiangbin, an analyst in the financial market department, believes that in the short term, the international gold price is still suppressed by the strong US dollar. At present, the international gold price is still in a state of fluctuation at the bottom, and it is expected to gradually rebound after the fourth quarter. \"It is expected that before the Fed's interest rate meeting in September, the international gold price will still fluctuate in the bottom range of $1,680 to $1,740 per ounce. After the boots of the interest rate meeting in September land, it is expected that the international gold price will turn and rebound. It is recommended to enter the market when the international gold price is under pressure and falls below $1,720.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670050\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3670050","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156732473","content_text":"外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。尽管美元的持续走强给黄金带来不小压力，但更喜欢逆势布局的外资巨头们，却已开始出手，大幅加仓黄金ETF。根据最新披露的基金半年报，全球最大对冲基金桥水旗下私募产品现身多只黄金ETF的前十大持有人名单。数据显示，截至今年6月底，桥水（中国）投资管理有限公司持有博时黄金ETF、华安黄金易ETF和易方达黄金ETF合计2.14亿份，持有市值达8.14亿元。外资巨头的出手意味着什么？在业内分析人士看来，当前黄金市场的悲观预期正被市场充分计价，黄金或在未来迎来探底回升的窗口。各大机构纷纷出手购金博时黄金ETF半年报显示，截至上半年末，桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金三号、桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金一号和桥水全天候增强型中国私募证券投资基金二号分别持有该基金4662.48万份、929.42万份和871.06万份，分列其第二、第五和第六大持有人。桥水中国的上述3只基金也出现在华安黄金易ETF和易方达黄金ETF的十大持有人名单中。实际上，除了桥水基金，多家内外资机构也在“扫货”黄金ETF。巴克莱银行同时现身博时黄金ETF和华安黄金易ETF，对这两只ETF的持有份额分别为444.52万份和2110万份。此外，中信证券、广发证券、华泰证券和国盛证券同时现身博时黄金ETF，合计持有2567万份；兴全优选进取三个月持有期混合型基金中基金和华商嘉悦稳健养老目标一年持有期混合型发起式基金中基金(FOF)则分列华安黄金易ETF第九和第十大持有人。公开资料显示，今年以来，上述3只黄金ETF均取得正收益。尤其是第一季度期间，伴随着全球股市及商品市场的震荡，黄金的避险功能凸显，黄金ETF也因此获得不错的收益。金价短期陷入低迷值得关注的是，在通胀持续走高的背景下，欧美央行普遍采取更为激进的货币政策来应对。今年6月美联储议息会议大幅加息 75个基点，创下近30年以来最大幅度的单次加息后，点阵图显示后续加息路径较为激进，叠加美联储6月正式开启缩表，美国实际利率在二季度出现大幅回升，导致国际金价二季度持续承压走弱。对此，世界黄金协会用“黄金艰难的夏天”来形容刚刚过去的这1个月的金价表现。来自世界黄金协会的统计显示，截至8月，金价环比走低，下跌2%至1715.9美元/盎司，已是连续第5个月下跌。而自7月中旬开始的反弹在未能突破1800美元/盎司的阻力位后，在8月中旬再度失去动力。数据同时显示，从整体持仓看，8月全球黄金ETF流出51吨，与金价表现相一致，这也是黄金ETF连续第4个月出现外流。世界黄金协会分析认为，这一表现是在收益率持续上升和美元走强的背景下出现的，背后原因正是因为美联储重申了其进一步收紧货币政策的承诺。逢低配置或是良策北京时间9月8日晚，欧洲央行召开货币政策会议，宣布将三大关键利率上调75个基点，调整后的利率将于9月14日生效。欧洲央行表示，当前通胀率仍过高，预计后续将进一步加息以抑制通胀。对此，华泰期货的研报称，虽然欧洲央行如期加息，美联储官员的鹰派态度也不曾改变，但从桥水等知名基金大举增持黄金ETF的动作可以看出，目前机构对于黄金资产的配置仍存需求，黄金可适当逢低多配。世界黄金协会的统计显示，今年1至4月份之间黄金ETF累计流入量的三分之二已被近期的流出相抵消。尽管如此，世界黄金协会仍认为，黄金交易量有望在9月份出现回升。“在8月，黄金的交易量降至每天1090亿美元，远低于7月份的水平（1490亿美元）和第二季度的月均值（1260亿美元）。随着市场活动的回升，我们将继续关注期货头寸和ETF流量。”世界黄金协会表示，这两个指标是观察黄金市场情绪的关键指标。他们也预计，随着季节性因素的影响，将导致消费者需求增加，也可能使得黄金的交易水平提升。民生银行金融市场部分析师汤湘滨认为，短期看国际金价依然受美元强势的压制，目前国际金价还处于底部震荡状态，四季度后有望逐步反弹。“预计在美联储9月议息会议前，国际金价仍会在每盎司1680美元至1740美元这一底部区间震荡。而在9月议息会议靴子落地后，预计国际金价将转向反弹，建议在国际金价承压回落至1720美元下方时入场。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":0.9,"159934":0.9,"518880":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"GCmain":0.9,"IAU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957488594,"gmtCreate":1677491604419,"gmtModify":1677491611611,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957488594","repostId":"1129466723","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129466723","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677490560,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129466723?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-27 17:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is the inflection point of global inflation still far away? UBS: Supply Chain Stress Nears Ten-Year Low","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129466723","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银认为全球供应链压力是通胀飙升的原因，随着需求不平衡的改善，航空、船运成本下降等因素，全球供应链瓶颈缓解，通胀或开始降温。供应链压力的缓解或使此前飙升的通胀迎来降温的的拐点。瑞银经济学家Arend ","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>UBS believes that the global supply chain pressure is the reason for the soaring inflation. With the improvement of demand imbalance, the decline of aviation and shipping costs and other factors, the bottleneck of the global supply chain has eased, and inflation may begin to cool down.</p><p>The easing of supply chain pressure may bring the previously soaring inflation to an inflection point of cooling.</p><p>The team led by UBS economist Arend Kapteyn pointed out in a report on February 24th that with the improvement of demand imbalance, the decline of aviation and shipping costs and other factors, the bottleneck of the global supply chain is gradually easing, and its pressure is at the lowest level in 10 years. The report said:</p><p>According to the composite index of global supply chain stress we track, it has fallen below normal and is now at its lowest level since 2013 except for 1 month in 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbd1c9d1fd34f7dc4f3054efb1dee3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Progressively easing supply chain pressures</p><p>UBS pointed out in the report,<b>Supply chain pressures are one of the sources of inflation, and as the pressure gradually eases, inflation may be gradually approaching an inflection point</b>：</p><p>We found that freight rates on the China-US route are now lower than the historical average, but those on other routes are still higher than normal. Inventory turnover (the ratio of the total amount (total quantity) out of a certain time period to the average amount (or quantity) of inventory in that time period) has started to move in the other direction, which has somewhat reduced inflation, but inventory levels are still increasing. UBS believes that the decline in demand for goods has improved the previous imbalance in demand. Falling export volumes have weighed on freight costs, but not all routes have fallen to pre-pandemic levels:</p><p>Declining order volumes are taking pressure off shipping volumes. The transportation cost from China to the west coast of the United States has dropped back to the pre-pandemic level, but there are still routes whose transportation cost is higher than the pre-pandemic level. For example, the freight cost from Europe to the east coast of the United States is still 2.6 times the previous level, due to the unusually strong demand for European imports from the United States.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5fe98d9af13c34a57efbec94144106\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>UBS pointed out,<b>From the air transportation perspective, the recovery of passenger flight volumes is reducing air cargo costs</b>According to the International Air Transport Association's Air Connectivity Index, global flights have recovered to about 74% of pre-pandemic levels, but the available air cargo tonnage is still 8.2% below 2019 levels, resulting in a month-on-month decline in cargo volume due to weak demand:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07ae4156dd4e6966c858cf51f78a819\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><b>From a shipping perspective, UBS says congestion at ports has improved and shipping queues have gradually decreased</b>：</p><p>Congestion in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which account for 41% of U.S. imports, has completely disappeared. The need to queue for ships to load and unload cargo since June 2021 has disappeared (more than 120 fewer container ships since early January), and congestion at East Coast ports is no longer there.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbcb0c384f36a3738b852949af3758b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f1f15013206d4f15b8dfee89add256\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of the semiconductor industry, UBS pointed out,<b>Increased supply in the industry combined with declining demand has kept delivery times ahead and its inventory has started to pick up sharply</b>：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff9d72f6c8dc5951076d5fdffd7f76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>UBS pointed out that during the pandemic, automobile production was also restricted due to the shortage of chips. Therefore, with the improvement of chip inventory, automobile production in the United States soared to the pre-pandemic level, but now it has begun to decline. In Europe, because the chip shortage lasted longer than in the United States, the recovery was later than in the United States, but since August, production also began to recover significantly:</p><p>Another decline in U.S. production suggests that once the backlog is completed, the force of production can be short-lived. It also suggests that automakers may be inclined to keep inventory levels below previous levels amid weak demand.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ba8412ffc200970b0723cb88b47af0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>UBS previously pointed out in a report that,<b>Supply chain bottlenecks in the United States eased earlier than in Europe</b>In Europe, the process lags 4-5 months:</p><p>The same goes for the services sector, where there is a clear cooling trend in the US, while the eurozone is yet to be fully confirmed, despite a sharp decline in December. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, even during the pandemic, energy prices in all countries were closely linked. However, since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, euro zone countries have experienced a much larger proportion of inflationary shocks, but recent data suggest that this shock has fallen back completely.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be872e177a2a11efc2ee3b425deee84a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Most sub-indicators are hinting at an inflation shift</p><p>Energy and commodity price shifts are the most convincing, even in services prices, especially if housing is excluded, UBS notes. Whether it is the revised average, the weighted average of GDP, or the main component, the conclusion holds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a722e4d40981b876b1e15cd745b9cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nearly a quarter of the \"core sub-item\" upward trend has reversed, particularly nearly two-thirds of headline energy price inflation has fallen back to zero (adjusted average, 3-month annualized change basis), around the 30% percentile since 2005. Commodity price inflation, the revised average, fell from 6.3% in June to 4.8%, or the 90% quantile, in December, but recovered slightly in January. The GDP-based measure showed that U.S. goods inflation cooled the most, falling 3.5% from its peak in January to 2.3%, but remaining in the 90% percentile. The slightly tentative shift in global services inflation actually reflects a shift in commodity prices once the housing component is removed. That is, in the past three months, for the revised average version, we have so far only reversed about a 20% increase in goods (compared to the historical average), a 28% increase in services (excluding housing), a 22% increase in core inflation, and a 63% increase in global headline inflation.</body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the inflection point of global inflation still far away? UBS: Supply Chain Stress Nears Ten-Year Low</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the inflection point of global inflation still far away? UBS: Supply Chain Stress Nears Ten-Year Low\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-02-27 17:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>UBS believes that the global supply chain pressure is the reason for the soaring inflation. With the improvement of demand imbalance, the decline of aviation and shipping costs and other factors, the bottleneck of the global supply chain has eased, and inflation may begin to cool down.</p><p>The easing of supply chain pressure may bring the previously soaring inflation to an inflection point of cooling.</p><p>The team led by UBS economist Arend Kapteyn pointed out in a report on February 24th that with the improvement of demand imbalance, the decline of aviation and shipping costs and other factors, the bottleneck of the global supply chain is gradually easing, and its pressure is at the lowest level in 10 years. The report said:</p><p>According to the composite index of global supply chain stress we track, it has fallen below normal and is now at its lowest level since 2013 except for 1 month in 2019.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbd1c9d1fd34f7dc4f3054efb1dee3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Progressively easing supply chain pressures</p><p>UBS pointed out in the report,<b>Supply chain pressures are one of the sources of inflation, and as the pressure gradually eases, inflation may be gradually approaching an inflection point</b>：</p><p>We found that freight rates on the China-US route are now lower than the historical average, but those on other routes are still higher than normal. Inventory turnover (the ratio of the total amount (total quantity) out of a certain time period to the average amount (or quantity) of inventory in that time period) has started to move in the other direction, which has somewhat reduced inflation, but inventory levels are still increasing. UBS believes that the decline in demand for goods has improved the previous imbalance in demand. Falling export volumes have weighed on freight costs, but not all routes have fallen to pre-pandemic levels:</p><p>Declining order volumes are taking pressure off shipping volumes. The transportation cost from China to the west coast of the United States has dropped back to the pre-pandemic level, but there are still routes whose transportation cost is higher than the pre-pandemic level. For example, the freight cost from Europe to the east coast of the United States is still 2.6 times the previous level, due to the unusually strong demand for European imports from the United States.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5fe98d9af13c34a57efbec94144106\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>UBS pointed out,<b>From the air transportation perspective, the recovery of passenger flight volumes is reducing air cargo costs</b>According to the International Air Transport Association's Air Connectivity Index, global flights have recovered to about 74% of pre-pandemic levels, but the available air cargo tonnage is still 8.2% below 2019 levels, resulting in a month-on-month decline in cargo volume due to weak demand:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c07ae4156dd4e6966c858cf51f78a819\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><b>From a shipping perspective, UBS says congestion at ports has improved and shipping queues have gradually decreased</b>：</p><p>Congestion in the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, which account for 41% of U.S. imports, has completely disappeared. The need to queue for ships to load and unload cargo since June 2021 has disappeared (more than 120 fewer container ships since early January), and congestion at East Coast ports is no longer there.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbcb0c384f36a3738b852949af3758b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44f1f15013206d4f15b8dfee89add256\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>From the perspective of the semiconductor industry, UBS pointed out,<b>Increased supply in the industry combined with declining demand has kept delivery times ahead and its inventory has started to pick up sharply</b>：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77ff9d72f6c8dc5951076d5fdffd7f76\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"496\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>UBS pointed out that during the pandemic, automobile production was also restricted due to the shortage of chips. Therefore, with the improvement of chip inventory, automobile production in the United States soared to the pre-pandemic level, but now it has begun to decline. In Europe, because the chip shortage lasted longer than in the United States, the recovery was later than in the United States, but since August, production also began to recover significantly:</p><p>Another decline in U.S. production suggests that once the backlog is completed, the force of production can be short-lived. It also suggests that automakers may be inclined to keep inventory levels below previous levels amid weak demand.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ba8412ffc200970b0723cb88b47af0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>UBS previously pointed out in a report that,<b>Supply chain bottlenecks in the United States eased earlier than in Europe</b>In Europe, the process lags 4-5 months:</p><p>The same goes for the services sector, where there is a clear cooling trend in the US, while the eurozone is yet to be fully confirmed, despite a sharp decline in December. Prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, even during the pandemic, energy prices in all countries were closely linked. However, since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, euro zone countries have experienced a much larger proportion of inflationary shocks, but recent data suggest that this shock has fallen back completely.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be872e177a2a11efc2ee3b425deee84a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Most sub-indicators are hinting at an inflation shift</p><p>Energy and commodity price shifts are the most convincing, even in services prices, especially if housing is excluded, UBS notes. Whether it is the revised average, the weighted average of GDP, or the main component, the conclusion holds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a722e4d40981b876b1e15cd745b9cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Nearly a quarter of the \"core sub-item\" upward trend has reversed, particularly nearly two-thirds of headline energy price inflation has fallen back to zero (adjusted average, 3-month annualized change basis), around the 30% percentile since 2005. Commodity price inflation, the revised average, fell from 6.3% in June to 4.8%, or the 90% quantile, in December, but recovered slightly in January. The GDP-based measure showed that U.S. goods inflation cooled the most, falling 3.5% from its peak in January to 2.3%, but remaining in the 90% percentile. The slightly tentative shift in global services inflation actually reflects a shift in commodity prices once the housing component is removed. That is, in the past three months, for the revised average version, we have so far only reversed about a 20% increase in goods (compared to the historical average), a 28% increase in services (excluding housing), a 22% increase in core inflation, and a 63% increase in global headline inflation.</body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3682831\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3682831","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129466723","content_text":"瑞银认为全球供应链压力是通胀飙升的原因，随着需求不平衡的改善，航空、船运成本下降等因素，全球供应链瓶颈缓解，通胀或开始降温。供应链压力的缓解或使此前飙升的通胀迎来降温的的拐点。瑞银经济学家Arend Kapteyn领导的团队在2月24日的报告中指出，随着需求不平衡现象的改善，航空、船运成本的下降等因素，全球供应链瓶颈正逐步缓解，其压力为10年来的最低水平，报告称：根据我们跟踪的全球供应链压力综合指数来看，其已低于正常值，除了2019年的1个月外，现在该值为2013年以来的最低水平。逐步缓解的供应链压力瑞银在报告中指出，供应链的压力是通胀的来源之一，随着压力的逐步缓解，通胀或许正逐步接近拐点：我们发现，现在中国—美国航线的运费低于历史平均水平，但其他航线的运费仍高于正常水平。库存周转率（某时间段的出库总金额（总数量）与该时间段库存平均金额（或数量）的比）已经开始向另一个方向移动，这一定程度上降低了通胀，但库存水平仍在增加。瑞银认为，对于货物需求量的下降使得此前需求不平衡的现象得到了改善。出口量的下降使货运成本承压，但并不是所有的路线的成本都已下降至疫情前的水平：订单量的下降正在减轻航运量的压力。从中国到美国西海岸的运输成本已经回落到疫情前的水平，但仍有航线的运输成本高于疫情前的水平，如从欧洲到美国东海岸的货运成本仍是此前的2.6倍，因美国对欧洲进口的需求异常强劲。瑞银指出，从空中运输来看，客运航班量的恢复正在降低航空货运成本，根据国际航空运输协会的航空连通性指数示，全球航班已复到疫情前的74%左右，但可用航空货运吨数仍比2019年的水平低8.2%，因需求疲软，导致货机量环比下降：从航运来看，瑞银称港口的拥堵情况改善，航运排队现象逐步减少：洛杉矶和长滩港（占美国进口的41%）的拥堵情况已经完全消失。自2021年6月以来轮船装载卸货需要排队的现象已经消失（自1月初以来减少了120多艘集装箱船），东海岸港口的拥堵情况也已不存在。从半导体行业来看，瑞银指出，该行业的供应增加叠加需求下降 ，使得交货时间不断提前，也使其库存开始大幅回升：瑞银指出，在疫情间，因芯片的短缺汽车生产也受到了限制，因此，随着芯片库存的改善，在美国，汽车产量猛增到疫情前的水平，但现在已开始下滑。在欧洲，由于芯片短缺现象持续的时间比美国长，所以复苏的时间晚于美国，但从8月开始，生产也开始大幅恢复：美国生产的再次下降表明，一旦积压的工作完成，生产的力量可能是短暂的。这也表明，在需求疲软的情况下，汽车生产商可能会倾向于使库存水平低于此前的水平。瑞银此前在报告中指出，美国的供应链瓶颈压比欧洲更早得到缓解，欧洲的这一过程滞后了4—5个月：服务业也是如此，美国出现了明显的降温趋势，而欧元区尚未得到完全证实，尽管12月出现了大幅下跌。在俄乌冲突之前，即使在疫情期间，所有国家的能源价格都是紧密联动的。但自俄乌冲突以后，欧元区国家经历了比例大得多的通胀冲击，但最近的数据表明，这一冲击已经完全回落。大部分分项指标都在暗示通胀转向瑞银指出，能源和商品价格转向是最令人信服的，即使是服务业价格，尤其是如果不包括住房的话，转向也较明显。无论是修正平均值、GDP加权平均值还是主要成分，结论都成立。近四分之一的“核心分项”上涨趋势逆转，特别是近三分之二的总体能源价格通胀已回落至零（调整后的平均值，3个月的年化变化基础），约为2005年以来的30%分位点。商品价格通胀率（修正后的平均值）从6月的6.3%降至12月的4.8%（即90%分位点），但在1月略有回升。基于GDP的衡量指标显示，美国商品通胀降温最大，从去年1月的峰值下降了3.5%，降至2.3%，但仍处于90%分位点。全球服务业通胀的转向稍显试探性，实际上反映了一旦剔除住房部分，商品价格的转变。即在过去三个月里，对于修正后的平均值版本，我们迄今为止只扭转了商品(与历史平均水平相比)约20%的涨幅、服务业（不含住房）28%的涨幅、核心通胀22%的涨幅、全球整体通胀63%的涨幅。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958522409,"gmtCreate":1673783087702,"gmtModify":1676538884865,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958522409","repostId":"1134981435","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134981435","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1673776814,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1134981435?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-01-15 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will it usher in the performance disclosure period again, and Nvidia will be \"worried\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134981435","media":"美股研究社","summary":"英伟达公布的第三季度业绩喜忧参半，并计划于2023年2月22日公布其23财年第四季度财务业绩。第三季度收入降至59.3亿美元，新的出口管制措施和挥之不去的供应链中断给它的营收带来了压力，我预计这些逆风","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>reported mixed third-quarter results and is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter fiscal' 23 financial results on February 22, 2023. Q3 revenue fell to $5.93 billion, new export controls and lingering supply chain disruptions weighed on its top line, and I expect those headwinds to continue into the fourth quarter.</p><p>Additionally, gaming revenue declined 51% from the year-ago quarter. This could be related to crypto headwinds, which I expect to continue into another headwind in 2023.</p><p>Finally, profits were also weighed down by high inflation, increased compensation expenses, increased headcount, and increased infrastructure spending. On the plus side, the negative effects from the above headwinds are partially offset by higher demand from cloud providers and the automotive industry. The automotive business in particular performed very well, with revenue up 86% year-over-year.</p><p>Overall, I think the outlook for Nvidia is fairly uncertain, with not much recovery expected from Nvidia in the fourth quarter. I expect the global PC market to continue to be weak in the fourth quarter. The global PC market has seen an unexpected increase due to the impact of Covid-19.</p><p>PC demand has normalized again, and even if the PC market recovers, as mentioned in my previous article, Nvidia has a lot of inventory to clear first (possibly price cuts) and can't benefit immediately from the recovery.</p><p>These uncertainties are reflected in the wide divergence of analyst opinions, as shown in the chart below, their consensus estimates. As you can see, a total of 36 analysts have made revenue revisions for Nvidia in the last three months. Of these, 24 were revised downward and 12 upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cce9afacd5cf6b8961c75263287988c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Nvidia Historical Performance and Return Drivers</b></p><p>Despite the significant correction this year, Nvidia investors who have held the stock for the past 5 years have been rewarded handsomely, as seen in the chart below. Even after about half of the cumulative earnings evaporated during 2022, Nvidia investors still generated a total return of 187% over the past 5 years, which translates to an annual CAGR of 23.5%, more than double the return of the tech sector overall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7dd20b4193f62fed04057cacdf2b4c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p>Looking deeper, the underlying drivers are mainly profit growth and P/E expansion. Over the past 5 years, Nvidia's profits have grown at a CAGR of 14.7%, from $3 billion 5 years ago to $6 billion now.</p><p>On an earnings-per-share basis, stock dilution offset some of the profit growth. As shown at the bottom of the chart, Nvidia's outstanding shares climbed slightly from 2.42 billion shares in 2018 to 2.53 billion shares today, translating to an annual dilution ratio of 0.7%. As a result, its EPS has grown at a CAGR of approximately 14.0%. Valuation expansion then did the rest, contributing 9.47% to total returns annually, as shown in Figure 2 below.</p><p>The next question is: Will these things continue for the next five years?</p><p>In the remainder of this article, you will see that my answer is twofold. I expect EPS growth to remain in the mid-teens. However, I expect P/E to contract, not expand, thus offsetting a significant portion of the EPS growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa0bfcf52d50f85f9f1c264a31966eb\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf4d32325325d0537501bb9c3f20c29\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>P/E remains high</b></p><p>Let me first explain why I expect its P/E to decline in the coming years. The following graph shows<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>P/E over the past 5 years, and the P/E of its close peers AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). It can be seen that Nvidia's P/E is currently hovering around 67 times, which is not only high in the absolute sense, but also much higher than its peers. That said, AMD is trading at just 40.7x while Intel is trading at just 9x.</p><p>In fact, the recent sharp price correction has significantly reduced its valuation risk. But the problem is that before the correction, it was valued in such a bubble (over 100+ P/E) that even with its price almost halved in 2022, I still see some valuation risk.</p><p>Next, I'll also say that its profitability is not superior to AMD, and I find it difficult to justify its huge valuation premium over AMD.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b77f31026b2c3a5b3134a3f10ff21bcb\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Profitability and EPS Growth Forecast</b></p><p>As we can see, the consensus forecast is for its EPS to grow at a CAGR of 19.3% over the next 5 years. At this rate, earnings per share are expected to more than double from $3.3 in 2023 to $8 by 2027.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4143c3bbe8f822a55fca5900f1b6284\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p>Readers familiar with my approach know that I always like to form my own estimates based on ROCE (Return on Capital Utilized) and Rate of Reinvestment (RR). My estimate is somewhat lower than the general estimate above. Its essence is the long-term growth rate, which is simply the ROCE* reinvestment rate.</p><p>Here I will quote the results directly in the next chart. As we can see, in recent years, Nvidia's ROCE has remained around 60% on average. The chart also shows AMD's ROCE, which currently averages 49%. So some of NVIDIA's valuations are certainly reasonable, as it has an ROCE around 20% higher than AMD. But I think a 70% P/E premium is too high (67x P/E vs 40x P/E for AMD).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bef2448f744ed9cf50e0beefc0db9f7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p>In recent years, the company's RR has remained around 15%. It is likely that the CHIPS Act will further increase its RR to the 20% range. Such incentives will be achieved in both direct (e.g. direct subsidies) and indirect (e.g. tax credits and satisfaction of their R&D needs by national laboratories and/or universities).</p><p>Based on ROCE and RR, the table below shows my projections for its growth rate over the next few years. As mentioned earlier, I expect growth to be between 11.5% and 15.5%, slightly below the above consensus estimate. Also note that in these projections, I added 2.5% inflation to the growth rate. The growth rate calculated by ROCE*RR is the real growth rate after excluding inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1916f094d3f01aec5a0604e3da79ce26\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Return potential over the next 5 years</b></p><p>The chart below summarizes all of the above and summarizes my return projections for the next five years. Here are some key comments:</p><p>1.My forecast uses the consensus EPS growth rate of 19.3%. As just mentioned, it is on the radical side.</p><p>2. My prediction is based on the assumption that P/E contracts to 40 times. As mentioned earlier, I think Nvidia's current P/E of 67x is hard to justify, and its P/E of 40x is still pretty high. From a broader perspective, the semiconductor industry, represented by SMH, has an average P/E of about 20 times, as does the overall tech industry, represented by QQQ. Such a P/E contraction would offset the 11.1% EPS growth.</p><p>3. Overall, I forecast total return potential in the 8% range over the next 5 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51aad3288754ad55ef0e13df49781bf\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>06</b></p><p><b>Risks and final thoughts</b></p><p>In conclusion, I think there will be a lot of uncertainty for Nvidia in the near future. These headwinds include recently imposed export controls, lingering supply chain disruptions, slowing gaming revenues, cryptocurrency headwinds, and an overall recovery in the global PC market. These are the issues that I will focus on in particular in my upcoming fourth quarter earnings report.</p><p>On the positive side, the business will take full advantage of the chip industry's strong long-term growth curve. Sometimes it is easier to predict long-term earnings than short-term earnings. The business has a strong ROCE and sustainable reinvestment rate, and is further boosted by the CHIPS Act in the coming years. So I wouldn't be surprised if the rapid growth in EPS is between 15% and 20%.</p><p>In conclusion, I expect Nvidia to deliver more than single-digit annual returns over the next 5 years. The recent sharp price correction has significantly reduced its valuation risk (from 100+ P/E to 67 times the current level). But 67 times P/E is still pretty high in my opinion. And I do expect some contraction in the P/E ratio over the next few years, which will offset a significant portion of Nvidia's EPS growth.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will it usher in the performance disclosure period again, and Nvidia will be \"worried\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill it usher in the performance disclosure period again, and Nvidia will be \"worried\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-01-15 18:00</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>reported mixed third-quarter results and is scheduled to announce its fourth-quarter fiscal' 23 financial results on February 22, 2023. Q3 revenue fell to $5.93 billion, new export controls and lingering supply chain disruptions weighed on its top line, and I expect those headwinds to continue into the fourth quarter.</p><p>Additionally, gaming revenue declined 51% from the year-ago quarter. This could be related to crypto headwinds, which I expect to continue into another headwind in 2023.</p><p>Finally, profits were also weighed down by high inflation, increased compensation expenses, increased headcount, and increased infrastructure spending. On the plus side, the negative effects from the above headwinds are partially offset by higher demand from cloud providers and the automotive industry. The automotive business in particular performed very well, with revenue up 86% year-over-year.</p><p>Overall, I think the outlook for Nvidia is fairly uncertain, with not much recovery expected from Nvidia in the fourth quarter. I expect the global PC market to continue to be weak in the fourth quarter. The global PC market has seen an unexpected increase due to the impact of Covid-19.</p><p>PC demand has normalized again, and even if the PC market recovers, as mentioned in my previous article, Nvidia has a lot of inventory to clear first (possibly price cuts) and can't benefit immediately from the recovery.</p><p>These uncertainties are reflected in the wide divergence of analyst opinions, as shown in the chart below, their consensus estimates. As you can see, a total of 36 analysts have made revenue revisions for Nvidia in the last three months. Of these, 24 were revised downward and 12 upward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cce9afacd5cf6b8961c75263287988c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"225\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>Nvidia Historical Performance and Return Drivers</b></p><p>Despite the significant correction this year, Nvidia investors who have held the stock for the past 5 years have been rewarded handsomely, as seen in the chart below. Even after about half of the cumulative earnings evaporated during 2022, Nvidia investors still generated a total return of 187% over the past 5 years, which translates to an annual CAGR of 23.5%, more than double the return of the tech sector overall.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e7dd20b4193f62fed04057cacdf2b4c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p>Looking deeper, the underlying drivers are mainly profit growth and P/E expansion. Over the past 5 years, Nvidia's profits have grown at a CAGR of 14.7%, from $3 billion 5 years ago to $6 billion now.</p><p>On an earnings-per-share basis, stock dilution offset some of the profit growth. As shown at the bottom of the chart, Nvidia's outstanding shares climbed slightly from 2.42 billion shares in 2018 to 2.53 billion shares today, translating to an annual dilution ratio of 0.7%. As a result, its EPS has grown at a CAGR of approximately 14.0%. Valuation expansion then did the rest, contributing 9.47% to total returns annually, as shown in Figure 2 below.</p><p>The next question is: Will these things continue for the next five years?</p><p>In the remainder of this article, you will see that my answer is twofold. I expect EPS growth to remain in the mid-teens. However, I expect P/E to contract, not expand, thus offsetting a significant portion of the EPS growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa0bfcf52d50f85f9f1c264a31966eb\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cf4d32325325d0537501bb9c3f20c29\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>P/E remains high</b></p><p>Let me first explain why I expect its P/E to decline in the coming years. The following graph shows<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>P/E over the past 5 years, and the P/E of its close peers AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). It can be seen that Nvidia's P/E is currently hovering around 67 times, which is not only high in the absolute sense, but also much higher than its peers. That said, AMD is trading at just 40.7x while Intel is trading at just 9x.</p><p>In fact, the recent sharp price correction has significantly reduced its valuation risk. But the problem is that before the correction, it was valued in such a bubble (over 100+ P/E) that even with its price almost halved in 2022, I still see some valuation risk.</p><p>Next, I'll also say that its profitability is not superior to AMD, and I find it difficult to justify its huge valuation premium over AMD.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b77f31026b2c3a5b3134a3f10ff21bcb\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>Profitability and EPS Growth Forecast</b></p><p>As we can see, the consensus forecast is for its EPS to grow at a CAGR of 19.3% over the next 5 years. At this rate, earnings per share are expected to more than double from $3.3 in 2023 to $8 by 2027.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4143c3bbe8f822a55fca5900f1b6284\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p>Readers familiar with my approach know that I always like to form my own estimates based on ROCE (Return on Capital Utilized) and Rate of Reinvestment (RR). My estimate is somewhat lower than the general estimate above. Its essence is the long-term growth rate, which is simply the ROCE* reinvestment rate.</p><p>Here I will quote the results directly in the next chart. As we can see, in recent years, Nvidia's ROCE has remained around 60% on average. The chart also shows AMD's ROCE, which currently averages 49%. So some of NVIDIA's valuations are certainly reasonable, as it has an ROCE around 20% higher than AMD. But I think a 70% P/E premium is too high (67x P/E vs 40x P/E for AMD).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bef2448f744ed9cf50e0beefc0db9f7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"464\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p>In recent years, the company's RR has remained around 15%. It is likely that the CHIPS Act will further increase its RR to the 20% range. Such incentives will be achieved in both direct (e.g. direct subsidies) and indirect (e.g. tax credits and satisfaction of their R&D needs by national laboratories and/or universities).</p><p>Based on ROCE and RR, the table below shows my projections for its growth rate over the next few years. As mentioned earlier, I expect growth to be between 11.5% and 15.5%, slightly below the above consensus estimate. Also note that in these projections, I added 2.5% inflation to the growth rate. The growth rate calculated by ROCE*RR is the real growth rate after excluding inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1916f094d3f01aec5a0604e3da79ce26\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>04</b></p><p><b>Return potential over the next 5 years</b></p><p>The chart below summarizes all of the above and summarizes my return projections for the next five years. Here are some key comments:</p><p>1.My forecast uses the consensus EPS growth rate of 19.3%. As just mentioned, it is on the radical side.</p><p>2. My prediction is based on the assumption that P/E contracts to 40 times. As mentioned earlier, I think Nvidia's current P/E of 67x is hard to justify, and its P/E of 40x is still pretty high. From a broader perspective, the semiconductor industry, represented by SMH, has an average P/E of about 20 times, as does the overall tech industry, represented by QQQ. Such a P/E contraction would offset the 11.1% EPS growth.</p><p>3. Overall, I forecast total return potential in the 8% range over the next 5 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e51aad3288754ad55ef0e13df49781bf\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data</p><p><b>06</b></p><p><b>Risks and final thoughts</b></p><p>In conclusion, I think there will be a lot of uncertainty for Nvidia in the near future. These headwinds include recently imposed export controls, lingering supply chain disruptions, slowing gaming revenues, cryptocurrency headwinds, and an overall recovery in the global PC market. These are the issues that I will focus on in particular in my upcoming fourth quarter earnings report.</p><p>On the positive side, the business will take full advantage of the chip industry's strong long-term growth curve. Sometimes it is easier to predict long-term earnings than short-term earnings. The business has a strong ROCE and sustainable reinvestment rate, and is further boosted by the CHIPS Act in the coming years. So I wouldn't be surprised if the rapid growth in EPS is between 15% and 20%.</p><p>In conclusion, I expect Nvidia to deliver more than single-digit annual returns over the next 5 years. The recent sharp price correction has significantly reduced its valuation risk (from 100+ P/E to 67 times the current level). But 67 times P/E is still pretty high in my opinion. And I do expect some contraction in the P/E ratio over the next few years, which will offset a significant portion of Nvidia's EPS growth.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228bba2b767cdc535690060c2aa243be","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134981435","content_text":"英伟达公布的第三季度业绩喜忧参半，并计划于2023年2月22日公布其23财年第四季度财务业绩。第三季度收入降至59.3亿美元，新的出口管制措施和挥之不去的供应链中断给它的营收带来了压力，我预计这些逆风将持续到第四季度。此外，游戏收入较上年同期下降了51%。这可能与加密货币逆风有关，我预计将持续到2023年的另一个逆风。最后，利润也受到高通胀、薪酬支出增加、员工人数增长以及基础设施支出增加的拖累。从好的方面来看，上述不利因素带来的负面影响被云提供商和汽车行业的更高需求部分抵消了。特别是汽车业务表现非常好，收入同比增长86%。总体而言，我认为英伟达的前景相当不确定，预计第四季度英伟达不会有太大的复苏。我预计第四季度全球个人电脑市场将继续疲软。受Covid-19的影响，全球PC市场出现了意想不到的增长。PC需求重新正常化，即使PC市场复苏，正如我之前的文章所述，英伟达也有大量库存需要首先清理(可能会降价)，而且无法立即从复苏中受益。这些不确定性反映在分析师意见的巨大分歧上，如下图所示，他们的共识估计。如你所见，在过去三个月里，共有36位分析师对英伟达进行了营收修正。其中24个向下修正，12个向上修正。Source: Seeking Alpha data01英伟达历史业绩和回报驱动因素尽管今年出现了大幅调整，但在过去5年里一直持有该股票的英伟达投资者仍获得了丰厚的回报，如下图所示。即使在2022年期间累计收益蒸发了约一半，但英伟达投资者在过去5年里仍然获得了187%的总回报，折合成年复合年增长率为23.5%，是科技行业整体回报率的两倍多。Source: Seeking Alpha data更深入地看，潜在的驱动因素主要是利润增长和市盈率扩张。在过去的5年里，英伟达的利润以14.7%的复合年增长率增长，从5年前的30亿美元增长到现在的60亿美元。按每股收益计算，股票稀释抵消了部分利润增长。如图表底部所示，英伟达的流通股数量从2018年的24.2亿股小幅攀升至目前的25.3亿股，折合成年稀释率为0.7%。因此，其每股收益的复合年增长率约为14.0%。然后，估值扩张完成了剩下的工作，每年为总回报贡献9.47%，如下图2所示。下一个问题是:上述这些会在未来5年继续保持下去吗?在本文的剩余部分，您将看到我的答案是双重的。我预计每股收益的增长将保持在十几位数左右。然而，我预计市盈率将会收缩，而不是扩大，因此抵消了很大一部分每股收益的增长。Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha dataSource: Author based on Seeking Alpha data02市盈率依然处于高位首先让我解释一下为什么我预计它的市盈率在未来几年将会下降。下图展示了英特尔过去5年的市盈率，以及与其实力相近的同行AMD(NASDAQ:AMD)和英特尔(NASDAQ:INTC)的市盈率。可以看到，英伟达的市盈率目前徘徊在67倍左右，不仅在绝对意义上很高，而且远高于同行。也就是说，AMD的交易价格仅为40.7倍，而英特尔的交易价格仅为9倍。事实上，最近的大幅价格调整大大降低了其估值风险。但问题是，在调整之前，它的估值处于这样一个泡沫状态(超过100+市盈率)，即使在2022年它的价格几乎减半，我仍然看到一些估值风险。接下来，我还会说，它的盈利能力并不比AMD优越，而且我发现它相对于AMD的巨大估值溢价很难证明是合理的。Source: Seeking Alpha data03盈利能力和每股收益增长预测正如我们所看到的，普遍预测其每股收益在未来5年的复合年增长率为19.3%。按照这个速度，预计每股收益将比2023年的3.3美元增加一倍多，到2027年达到8美元。Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data熟悉我的方法的读者知道，我总是喜欢根据ROCE(已动用资本回报率)和再投资率(RR)来形成我自己的估计。我的估计比上面的普遍估计要低一些。其本质是长期增长率,简单地说就是ROCE *再投资率。在这里，我将直接在下一张图表中引用结果。如我们所见，近年来，英伟达的ROCE平均保持在60%左右。该图表还显示了AMD的ROCE，其目前的ROCE平均为49%。因此，英伟达的一些估值肯定是合理的，因为它的ROCE比AMD高出20%左右。但我认为70%的市盈率溢价太高了(67倍的市盈率vs AMD的40倍的市盈率)。Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data近年来，该公司的RR一直保持在15%左右。CHIPS法案很可能会进一步将其RR提高到20%的范围。这种刺激将以直接方式(如直接补贴)和间接方式(如税收抵免和由国家实验室和/或大学满足其研发需求)来实现。根据ROCE和RR，下表显示了我对其未来几年增长率的预测。如前所述，我预计增长率将在11.5%至15.5%之间，略低于上述普遍预期。还要注意的是，在这些预测中，我在增长率中添加了2.5%的通胀因素。ROCE*RR计算的增长率是剔除通货膨胀后的实际增长率。Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data04未来5年的回报潜力下面的图表汇总了上述所有部分，并总结了我对未来五年的回报预测。以下是一些关键的评论:1.我的预测采用了普遍预期的19.3%的每股收益增长率。正如刚才提到的，它是激进的一面。2.我的预测是基于市盈率收缩至40倍的假设。如前所述，我认为英伟达目前67倍的市盈率很难证明其合理性，40倍的市盈率仍然相当高。从更广泛的角度来看，以SMH为代表的半导体行业的平均市盈率约为20倍，以QQQ为代表的整体科技行业也是如此。这样的市盈率收缩将抵消11.1%的每股收益增长。3.总的来说，我预测未来5年的总回报潜力在8%的范围内。Source: Author based on Seeking Alpha data06风险和最后的想法总之，我认为在不久的将来，英伟达将面临许多不确定性。这些不利因素包括最近实施的出口管制、挥之不去的供应链中断、游戏收入放缓、加密货币不利因素以及全球PC市场的整体复苏。这些是我在即将到来的第四季度收益报告中特别关注的问题。从积极的方面来看，该业务将充分利用芯片行业强劲的长期增长曲线。有时候，预测长期收益比预测短期收益更容易。该业务拥有强劲的ROCE和可持续的再投资率，并在未来几年受到CHIPS法案的进一步推动。因此，如果每股收益的快速增长在15%到20%之间，我不会感到惊讶。总之，我预计未来5年英伟达的年回报率将达到个位数以上。最近的大幅价格调整大幅降低了其估值风险(从100+市盈率降至目前的67倍)。但在我看来，67倍的市盈率仍相当高。而且我确实预计未来几年市盈率会出现一些收缩，这将抵消英伟达每股收益增长的很大一部分。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966764734,"gmtCreate":1669649196829,"gmtModify":1676538218586,"author":{"id":"3581665781703479","authorId":"3581665781703479","name":"Linda2240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f18a9b60dbd0321aa6fc8321e7a05a0d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581665781703479","idStr":"3581665781703479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966764734","repostId":"1108660263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108660263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669649163,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108660263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-28 23:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Under the pressure of industry competition, how many cards can Bilibili play?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108660263","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"哔哩哔哩的用户参与度指标和收入继续增加。然而，增长是伴随着急剧的损失，而且没有什么改善的迹象。相对不友好的监管环境和激烈的竞争可能使哔哩哔哩的盈利之路成为一场艰苦的战斗。由阿里巴巴和腾讯支持的视频平台","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Bilibili's user engagement metrics and revenue continue to increase.</p><p>However, growth is accompanied by sharp losses, and there is little sign of improvement.</p><p>The relatively unfriendly regulatory environment and intense competition could make Bilibili's path to profitability an uphill battle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4d7957cbf095493e57eea867540a19\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Bilibili, a video platform powered by Alibaba and Tencent, seems to be achieving its goal of expanding and enriching its user base. However, losses continue to balloon, and with the regulatory environment shifting in favor of outdoor gaming and sports, coupled with extremely stiff competition, the company's path to profitability could be a difficult one.</p><p><b>Rapid growth in revenue, MAU, and engagement</b></p><p>In the second quarter of 2022, Bilibili's net income increased 9% year-on-year to 4.9 billion yuan. All segments except mobile gaming reported strong growth; Revenue from value-added services (including premium subscription services, which provide exclusive access to premium content), Bilibili's largest revenue contributor, increased 29% year-on-year to 2.1 billion yuan; Advertising revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to 1.1 billion yuan.</p><p>E-commerce and other revenue increased 4% year-on-year to RMB600 million; Mobile game revenue decreased 15% year-on-year to RMB1 billion due to the impact of the freeze on game license approvals in July 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/894cb0308a83fa4472426c259c1df764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Bilibili Q2 2022 quarterly report</p><p>MAU (Monthly Active Users) reached a record 306 million in the second quarter of 2022, up 29% year over year, while the platform's monthly average total content submissions were 13.2 million, up 56% year over year, from 3.6 million monthly active content creators, up 50% year over year. Average monthly paying subscribers (MPU) increased 32% year-over-year to 27.5 million.</p><p>As of the second quarter of 2022, Bilibili users spent 89 minutes per day on the platform (an increase of 9 minutes compared to the same period last year), which is more engaged than Youtube users (who spent about 74 minutes per day).</p><p>Looking ahead, Bilibili remains committed to its strategy to drive future growth.</p><p><b>Digital Ad Spending Opportunities Welcome Opportunities</b></p><p>Bilibili aims to grow its MAU to 400 million by 2023 (with plenty of room to grow considering domestic short video rival Douban has about 715 million MAU, while global video giant Youtube has about 2.6 billion MAU).</p><p>To that end, the company is expanding its content offering to meet the needs of the older population. Original content (known as (OGV or career-generated video), including documentary and educational content, has helped boost the popularity of the Bilibili platform outside of its core ACG (anime, manga, game) audience, which in turn opens up opportunities for monetization, particularly through advertising (especially OGV to get the most expensive ads).</p><p>Digital ad spending in the market in which Bilibili is located is expected to grow by around 10% in the coming years, and as the only medium-to-long video platform with a large amount of user-generated content, Bilibili is expected to account for some of its digital ad spending as the only medium-to-long video platform with a large portfolio of user-generated content.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee35377054d08845662637d21e3cf9b6\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Sina.com</p><p><b>International expansion</b></p><p>Bilibili has been expanding overseas, seemingly starting in Southeast Asia, which is not surprising given the region's huge Chinese-speaking diaspora (more than 80% of the world's 50 million or so overseas Chinese live in Southeast Asia).</p><p>In December 2020, Bilibili launched localization operations in Thailand and Malaysia, and in 2022, the company has been stepping up its recruitment efforts in other Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.</p><p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p>Since its inception, Bilibili has not been profitable, and while the company is growing rapidly, its losses are also ballooning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c3a2a512a49107462ad35c6b72b2e97\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Author</p><p>Margins are also largely trending sideways.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ef7549df03d83441d0f6aa6077fc0b\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Author</p><p>However, if domestic competitors such as iQiyi have anything to learn from, Bilibili's heavy investment in original content could help attract a larger audience. Such a strategy could lead to huge losses and severe cash burn, especially in emerging markets where consumers have less purchasing power.</p><p>Rising content development costs coupled with Bilibili's marketing and user acquisition costs in its international expansion, which has so far been focused on emerging markets in Southeast Asia, suggest that Bilibili may continue to be unprofitable for the foreseeable future.</p><p><b>Recently restored gaming restrictions provide temporary relief, but the long-term trajectory appears to be weak</b></p><p>Bilibili's mobile gaming division has largely been hit by the tech industry by suspending approvals for gaming licenses. However, the resumption of license approvals this year is a near-term relief for gaming companies like Bilibili, but the long-term outlook does not seem promising.</p><p>The number of permits approved has been steadily declining over the years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb596ffd15b61ddfb39ec441dfc1a28b\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Statista</p><p>Now, more emphasis is placed on encouraging their citizens to engage in physical games rather than virtual, i.e. online games.</p><p>More time is devoted to playing outdoor games rather than indoor games, indicating a soft outlook for the country's video game space. It could also mean a general reduction in time spent watching videos, which could also hurt ad revenue.</p><p><b>Advertising budgets impacted by recent macro challenges</b></p><p>Macro headwinds can constrain ad budgets, which in turn may impact ad revenue, and while Bilibili's advertising division has bucked the trend so far, this performance may slow or even reverse as economic conditions deteriorate. Global media giants have reported weak results due to the tough situation in the global digital media advertising market; Google (GOOG, GOOGL) reported weaker-than-expected earnings and revenue, primarily because YouTube ad revenue was weaker than expected, up just 14% (25% expected).</p><p>Meanwhile, Tencent's revenue has declined for two consecutive quarters, mainly due to weak advertising revenue (social advertising declined 5% year-on-year and video advertising declined 26% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022).</p><p><b>Intense competition</b></p><p>In the long run, stiff competition can hamper growth prospects; There is no shortage of ad-supported online video platforms, ranging from those offering original video content (such as Youku, Tencent Video, iQiyi (IQ), and global video streaming giant Netflix, which launched an ad-supported layer this month) to those offering user-generated content (including mid-to-long video platforms such as Youtube, Xigua Video, and Bilibi, as well as Kugou (OTCPK. KUASF) and Douban, and internationally TikTok).</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Bilibili had a tough year as the tech industry crackdown hit gaming revenue. The resumption of mobile game licensing approvals can provide relief in the short term, but video game licensing approvals have been on a downward trend over the past few years.</p><p>The gaming industry could face growth headwinds as the government aims to encourage outdoor gaming rather than virtual gaming. Meanwhile, macro challenges could impact advertising revenue as companies cut advertising budgets.</p><p>In the long run, Bilibili is expanding its user base, which may help increase advertising revenue, but the increase in its content development costs as part of its attempt to diversify its user base, and the increase in user acquisition costs as part of its international growth ambitions, suggest that the company may continue to be unprofitable for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, stiff competition could further challenge the company's ability to achieve profitability.</p><p>Bilibili's share price is down nearly 80% this year, at its lowest level since 2019, but with challenging near-term conditions due to macro winds and an uncertain earnings outlook, investors should choose to wait and watch.</p><p>Analysts are generally bullish on the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a2d67ed3cc25b02bd3e4436bf6d58be\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>WSJ</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"mgyjs","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Under the pressure of industry competition, how many cards can Bilibili play?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnder the pressure of industry competition, how many cards can Bilibili play?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">老虎资讯综合</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-28 23:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Bilibili's user engagement metrics and revenue continue to increase.</p><p>However, growth is accompanied by sharp losses, and there is little sign of improvement.</p><p>The relatively unfriendly regulatory environment and intense competition could make Bilibili's path to profitability an uphill battle.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4d7957cbf095493e57eea867540a19\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"570\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Bilibili, a video platform powered by Alibaba and Tencent, seems to be achieving its goal of expanding and enriching its user base. However, losses continue to balloon, and with the regulatory environment shifting in favor of outdoor gaming and sports, coupled with extremely stiff competition, the company's path to profitability could be a difficult one.</p><p><b>Rapid growth in revenue, MAU, and engagement</b></p><p>In the second quarter of 2022, Bilibili's net income increased 9% year-on-year to 4.9 billion yuan. All segments except mobile gaming reported strong growth; Revenue from value-added services (including premium subscription services, which provide exclusive access to premium content), Bilibili's largest revenue contributor, increased 29% year-on-year to 2.1 billion yuan; Advertising revenue increased by 10% year-on-year to 1.1 billion yuan.</p><p>E-commerce and other revenue increased 4% year-on-year to RMB600 million; Mobile game revenue decreased 15% year-on-year to RMB1 billion due to the impact of the freeze on game license approvals in July 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/894cb0308a83fa4472426c259c1df764\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Bilibili Q2 2022 quarterly report</p><p>MAU (Monthly Active Users) reached a record 306 million in the second quarter of 2022, up 29% year over year, while the platform's monthly average total content submissions were 13.2 million, up 56% year over year, from 3.6 million monthly active content creators, up 50% year over year. Average monthly paying subscribers (MPU) increased 32% year-over-year to 27.5 million.</p><p>As of the second quarter of 2022, Bilibili users spent 89 minutes per day on the platform (an increase of 9 minutes compared to the same period last year), which is more engaged than Youtube users (who spent about 74 minutes per day).</p><p>Looking ahead, Bilibili remains committed to its strategy to drive future growth.</p><p><b>Digital Ad Spending Opportunities Welcome Opportunities</b></p><p>Bilibili aims to grow its MAU to 400 million by 2023 (with plenty of room to grow considering domestic short video rival Douban has about 715 million MAU, while global video giant Youtube has about 2.6 billion MAU).</p><p>To that end, the company is expanding its content offering to meet the needs of the older population. Original content (known as (OGV or career-generated video), including documentary and educational content, has helped boost the popularity of the Bilibili platform outside of its core ACG (anime, manga, game) audience, which in turn opens up opportunities for monetization, particularly through advertising (especially OGV to get the most expensive ads).</p><p>Digital ad spending in the market in which Bilibili is located is expected to grow by around 10% in the coming years, and as the only medium-to-long video platform with a large amount of user-generated content, Bilibili is expected to account for some of its digital ad spending as the only medium-to-long video platform with a large portfolio of user-generated content.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee35377054d08845662637d21e3cf9b6\" tg-width=\"462\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Sina.com</p><p><b>International expansion</b></p><p>Bilibili has been expanding overseas, seemingly starting in Southeast Asia, which is not surprising given the region's huge Chinese-speaking diaspora (more than 80% of the world's 50 million or so overseas Chinese live in Southeast Asia).</p><p>In December 2020, Bilibili launched localization operations in Thailand and Malaysia, and in 2022, the company has been stepping up its recruitment efforts in other Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.</p><p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p>Since its inception, Bilibili has not been profitable, and while the company is growing rapidly, its losses are also ballooning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c3a2a512a49107462ad35c6b72b2e97\" tg-width=\"596\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Author</p><p>Margins are also largely trending sideways.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ef7549df03d83441d0f6aa6077fc0b\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Author</p><p>However, if domestic competitors such as iQiyi have anything to learn from, Bilibili's heavy investment in original content could help attract a larger audience. Such a strategy could lead to huge losses and severe cash burn, especially in emerging markets where consumers have less purchasing power.</p><p>Rising content development costs coupled with Bilibili's marketing and user acquisition costs in its international expansion, which has so far been focused on emerging markets in Southeast Asia, suggest that Bilibili may continue to be unprofitable for the foreseeable future.</p><p><b>Recently restored gaming restrictions provide temporary relief, but the long-term trajectory appears to be weak</b></p><p>Bilibili's mobile gaming division has largely been hit by the tech industry by suspending approvals for gaming licenses. However, the resumption of license approvals this year is a near-term relief for gaming companies like Bilibili, but the long-term outlook does not seem promising.</p><p>The number of permits approved has been steadily declining over the years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb596ffd15b61ddfb39ec441dfc1a28b\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Statista</p><p>Now, more emphasis is placed on encouraging their citizens to engage in physical games rather than virtual, i.e. online games.</p><p>More time is devoted to playing outdoor games rather than indoor games, indicating a soft outlook for the country's video game space. It could also mean a general reduction in time spent watching videos, which could also hurt ad revenue.</p><p><b>Advertising budgets impacted by recent macro challenges</b></p><p>Macro headwinds can constrain ad budgets, which in turn may impact ad revenue, and while Bilibili's advertising division has bucked the trend so far, this performance may slow or even reverse as economic conditions deteriorate. Global media giants have reported weak results due to the tough situation in the global digital media advertising market; Google (GOOG, GOOGL) reported weaker-than-expected earnings and revenue, primarily because YouTube ad revenue was weaker than expected, up just 14% (25% expected).</p><p>Meanwhile, Tencent's revenue has declined for two consecutive quarters, mainly due to weak advertising revenue (social advertising declined 5% year-on-year and video advertising declined 26% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022).</p><p><b>Intense competition</b></p><p>In the long run, stiff competition can hamper growth prospects; There is no shortage of ad-supported online video platforms, ranging from those offering original video content (such as Youku, Tencent Video, iQiyi (IQ), and global video streaming giant Netflix, which launched an ad-supported layer this month) to those offering user-generated content (including mid-to-long video platforms such as Youtube, Xigua Video, and Bilibi, as well as Kugou (OTCPK. KUASF) and Douban, and internationally TikTok).</p><p><b>sum up</b></p><p>Bilibili had a tough year as the tech industry crackdown hit gaming revenue. The resumption of mobile game licensing approvals can provide relief in the short term, but video game licensing approvals have been on a downward trend over the past few years.</p><p>The gaming industry could face growth headwinds as the government aims to encourage outdoor gaming rather than virtual gaming. Meanwhile, macro challenges could impact advertising revenue as companies cut advertising budgets.</p><p>In the long run, Bilibili is expanding its user base, which may help increase advertising revenue, but the increase in its content development costs as part of its attempt to diversify its user base, and the increase in user acquisition costs as part of its international growth ambitions, suggest that the company may continue to be unprofitable for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, stiff competition could further challenge the company's ability to achieve profitability.</p><p>Bilibili's share price is down nearly 80% this year, at its lowest level since 2019, but with challenging near-term conditions due to macro winds and an uncertain earnings outlook, investors should choose to wait and watch.</p><p>Analysts are generally bullish on the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a2d67ed3cc25b02bd3e4436bf6d58be\" tg-width=\"528\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>WSJ</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e6GGHLy9Lm_K2wbiXblekQ\">老虎资讯综合</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4d7957cbf095493e57eea867540a19","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩","09626":"哔哩哔哩-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e6GGHLy9Lm_K2wbiXblekQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108660263","content_text":"哔哩哔哩的用户参与度指标和收入继续增加。然而，增长是伴随着急剧的损失，而且没有什么改善的迹象。相对不友好的监管环境和激烈的竞争可能使哔哩哔哩的盈利之路成为一场艰苦的战斗。由阿里巴巴和腾讯支持的视频平台哔哩哔哩，其扩大和丰富用户群的目标似乎正在实现。然而，亏损继续膨胀，随着监管环境向有利于户外游戏和体育的方向变化，加上极其激烈的竞争，该公司的盈利之路可能是一个艰难的过程。收入、MAU和参与度的快速增长2022年第二季度，哔哩哔哩的净收入同比增长9%，达到49亿元人民币。除移动游戏外，所有部门都报告了强劲的增长；哔哩哔哩最大的收入来源——增值服务（包括高级订阅服务，提供对高级内容的独家访问）的收入同比增长29%，达到21亿元人民币；而广告收入同比增长10%，达到11亿元人民币。电子商务和其他收入同比增长4%，达到6亿元人民币；移动游戏收入由于受到2021年7月冻结游戏许可证审批的影响，同比下降15%，达到10亿元人民币。Bilibili Q2 2022 quarterly report2022年第二季度，MAU（月活跃用户）达到创纪录的3.06亿，同比增长29%，而该平台的月平均内容提交总量为1320万，同比增长56%，来自360万月活跃内容创作者，同比增长50%。平均每月付费用户（MPU）同比增长32%，达到2750万。截至2022年第二季度，哔哩哔哩用户每天在平台上花费89分钟（与去年同期相比增加了9分钟），比Youtube用户（每天花费约74分钟）的参与度更高。展望未来，哔哩哔哩继续致力于推动未来增长的战略。数字广告支出机会迎来机会哔哩哔哩的目标是到2023年将MAU增长到4亿（考虑到国内短视频竞争对手豆瓣拥有约7.15亿MAU，而全球视频巨头Youtube拥有约26亿MAU，因此有充足的增长空间）。为此，该公司正在扩大其内容供应，以满足老年群体的需求。原创内容（被称为（OGV或职业生成视频），包括纪录片和教育内容，帮助提高了哔哩哔哩平台在其核心ACG（动漫、漫画、游戏）受众之外的受欢迎程度，而这反过来又打开了货币化的机会，特别是通过广告（尤其是OGV获得最昂贵的广告）。哔哩哔哩所在市场的数字广告支出预计在未来几年将增长10%左右，作为唯一一个拥有大量用户生成内容的中长篇视频平台，而作为唯一拥有大量用户生成内容组合的中长视频平台，哔哩哔哩有望占据部分数字广告支出。Sina.com国际扩张哔哩哔哩一直在向海外扩张，似乎从东南亚开始，考虑到该地区庞大的讲中文的侨民（全球5000万左右的海外华裔中80%以上居住在东南亚），这并不令人意外。2020年12月，哔哩哔哩在泰国和马来西亚启动了本地化运营，2022年，该公司一直在加强在其他东南亚国家的招聘工作，包括越南、印度尼西亚和菲律宾。风险和挑战自成立以来，哔哩哔哩一直没有盈利，公司在快速增长的同时，损失也在不断膨胀。Author利润率也基本上呈横向趋势。Author然而，如果爱奇艺等国内竞争对手有什么可以借鉴的，那么哔哩哔哩对原创内容的大量投资可能有助于吸引更多的观众。这样的策略可能会导致巨大的损失和严重的现金消耗，尤其是在消费者购买力更低的新兴市场。不断上升的内容开发成本加上哔哩哔哩在国际扩张中的营销和用户获取成本（到目前为止主要集中在东南亚的新兴市场）表明哔哩哔哩在可预见的未来可能会继续无利可图。最近恢复的游戏限制提供了暂时的缓解，但长期的发展轨迹似乎很薄弱哔哩哔哩的移动游戏部门在很大程度上受到了科技行业的打击，即暂停对游戏许可证的批准。然而，今年恢复了许可证审批，这对像哔哩哔哩这样的游戏公司来说是一个近期的缓解，但长期前景似乎并不乐观。这些年来，批准的许可证数量一直在稳步下降。Statista现在，更强调鼓励他们的公民从事实体游戏，而不是虚拟的，即网络游戏。更多的时间用于玩户外游戏而不是室内游戏，表明该国的视频游戏空间前景柔和。这也可能意味着花在观看视频上的时间普遍减少，这可能也会损害广告收入。广告预算受到近期宏观挑战的影响宏观逆风会限制广告预算，反过来可能会影响广告收入，虽然哔哩哔哩的广告部门到目前为止已经逆势而上，但随着经济状况的恶化，这种表现可能会减缓甚至逆转。由于全球数字媒体广告市场形势严峻，全球媒体巨头纷纷公布了疲软的业绩；谷歌（GOOG, GOOGL）公布的盈利和收入弱于预期，主要是因为YouTube广告收入比预期的要弱，仅增长14%（预期增长25%）。同时，腾讯的收入已经连续两个季度下降，主要是受广告收入疲软的影响（2022年第三季度社交广告同比下降5%，视频广告同比下滑26%）。激烈的竞争长期来看，激烈的竞争会阻碍增长前景；不乏有广告支持的在线视频平台，从提供原创视频内容的平台（如优酷、腾讯视频、爱奇艺（IQ），以及本月推出广告支持层的全球视频流媒体巨头Netflix）到提供用户生成内容的平台（包括Youtube、西瓜视频和Bilibi等中长篇视频平台，以及酷狗（OTCPK。KUASF）和豆瓣网，以及国际上的TikTok）。总结科技行业的打击影响了游戏收入，哔哩哔哩度过了艰难的一年。移动游戏许可审批的恢复可以在短期内提供缓解，但在过去的几年里，视频游戏许可审批一直处于下降趋势。随着政府旨在鼓励户外游戏而非虚拟游戏，游戏业可能面临增长阻力。同时，随着公司削减广告预算，宏观挑战可能会影响广告收入。长期来看，哔哩哔哩正在扩大其用户群，这可能有助于增加广告收入，但作为其试图使用户群多样化的一部分，其内容开发成本的增加，以及作为其国际增长雄心的一部分，用户获取成本的增加，表明该公司在可预见的未来可能会继续无利可图。此外，激烈的竞争可能进一步挑战该公司实现盈利的能力。哔哩哔哩的股价今年以来下跌了近80%，处于2019年以来的最低水平，但由于宏观风向和不确定的盈利前景，近期条件具有挑战性，投资者应该选择等待和观察。分析师们普遍看好该股。WSJ","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09626":0.9,"BILI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}