Blueskyyy personal page - To The Moon

Blueskyyy

Blueskyyy

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2022-09-26

Nice

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2022-11-24

Oh

Nvidia: Here We Go Again

2022-11-02

Oh

Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path

2022-04-15

$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$Nice

2022-11-18

Of

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2022-10-21

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Stocks Fall Slightly As Investors Weigh Potential for Fed to Slow Rate Hikes

2022-10-03

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Apple: Hello Recession

2022-09-15

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up and away

2021-08-29

Nice on

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2022-10-16

$Sea Ltd(SE)$Up

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15:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia: Here We Go Again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285863595","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryOver the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times.It is clea","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Over the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times.</li><li>It is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are continuing to reach new heights, whereas Gaming and Professional Visualization continue to work through noticeable issues.</li><li>I believe NVDA is a phenomenal company that has managed to survive a plethora of situations that would have killed most companies.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebaf34d41fe0c4b791ed404fd8f152\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"494\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Justin Sullivan</span></p><p>Today, I will be providing an update on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) after their recent Q3 earnings report. Therein, I will discuss how the company has been in this position before, delve into their recent earnings, analyze the potential direction of the company and its various business segments going forwards, and more.</p><p><i>Note: All dollar values mentioned herein are in millions of USD.</i></p><p><b>Let’s get started</b></p><blockquote>“Mechanical things can go in a straight line. Time moves ahead continuously. So can a machine when it’s adequately powered. But processes in fields like history and economics involve people, and when people are involved, the results are variable and cyclical.” - Howard Marks</blockquote><p>There is something inherently beautiful about cyclicality. Booms and busts, highs and lows, euphoria and despair; these feelings are directly connected with the human condition, and creep their way into the institutions and complex systems that make up the very fabric of the world we inhabit today. These phenomena directly impact society and economies at large, and have repeated countless amounts of time throughout history. There is no doubt that as we exit an environment impacted by pandemic-fueled market euphoria, and as the “easy-money era” of QE comes to an end, we are entering into hard times, an inevitability given the cyclical nature of markets. With inflationary pressures rearing their ugly head, shortages turning into gluts, and the deterioration of stability creeping its way into a variety of our systems, many companies that were putting up record numbers a few months prior to now are now struggling to deal with a plethora of headwinds.</p><p><b>NVDA is one of those companies - but this is a place that they’ve been before…</b></p><p>In April of 1993 three young electrical engineers, Chris Malachowsky, Curtis Priem, and the now-CEO, Jen-Hsun Huang, decided to start a company that would create specialized chips in a San Jose Denny’s. With the benefit of hindsight, it is amazing that a company that now stands at the forefront of computing had such humble beginnings. Being that as it may, the journey to that point was not without its ups and downs.</p><p>Take the launch of their first chip as an example. In 1995, the company went to market with their NV1 product, an effort that proved to be disastrous, resulting in a $10M loss and a layoff of half their then 80 person team, actions deemed essential to avoid imminent bankruptcy. Scattered throughout the remainder of NVDA’s history are situations where the company seemed to be quickly approaching destruction. As outlined in my original NVDA deep-dive, the rocky roads experienced of late aren’t even the worst drawdowns that NVDA shareholders have experienced:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bc8e0145862d5dec1462b3dbb2e6f64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Over the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times. The company started off focused on PC graphics, pivoted to a centricity around programmable shaders, and now finds itself benefitting from a boom in parallel processing computing, bolstering several specialities ranging from visual computing, energy efficient programming, the go-to hardware choice at the forefront of the rapidly expanding data center and the AI applications therein, and more. Despite the plethora of opportunities the company has in front of it, NVDA finds itself, yet again, at a cross-road. With no end in sight to the downturn we find ourself in, it begs the question - will NVDA come out from this reinvented or will the weights on their shoulders continue to increase for the foreseeable future?</p><h2>Let’s dig into their most recent earnings to find out</h2><p>Starting off with revenues, overall top-line beat by 2.2%, coming in at approximately $5.931B vs. the consensus estimates of $5.805B, a decent surprise given the doom &amp; gloom that has been surrounding the company of late but still a noticeable decline YoY, decelerating 16.5%:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa5defc38c0bd23b32f11a39260ebf21\" tg-width=\"360\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Despite this clear deceleration, how exactly have each of the business segments of NVDA been performing? NVDA exists as a full-stack company (i.e., with both software and hardware expertise), and as described in-depth in my NVDA deep-dive, primarily operates in four different business segments: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, Automotive.</p><p>Data Center is primarily focused on providing hardware and software solutions for a variety of use cases ranging from AI to HPC, geared at hyperscalers, enterprise clients, research institutions, etc., as the end-users. Gaming is relatively self-explanatory and includes the company offering their graphical processing units for gaming PCs and laptops, in addition to a few other smaller bets such as the cloud gaming offering and multimedia devices, which understandably take a back-seat to the aforementioned gaming hardware, and are not something I expect to be hugely rewarding to shareholders going forward. Professional visualization encompasses a host of functionality but can be loosely defined as solutions aimed at 3D rendering, which work in conjunction with the company’s GPU architectures and associated computing languages, including the likes of Iray, Mental Ray, MDL, DesignWorks, etc. These products allow customers to create custom rendering applications, are tied to the company’s omniverse activities, etc. Automotive encompasses a series of hardware, software and infrastructure offerings such as the DRIVE supercomputing platform, software that leverages bundles of data gathered with hardware to assist with companies creating autonomous driving capabilities, as well as offerings tiered to data center and launchpad that allow customers to create AI and accelerated computing procedures related to autonomous vehicles.</p><p>Starting off with Data Center, this segment generated record numbers, increasing 31% YoY to come in at approximately $3.8B.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd118aa68643730db5871ae1b66c2f1\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The data center segment, as outlined on the conference call, benefitted from heightened demand from US cloud providers and consumer internet companies. In addition, management also illustrated how they stand to benefit from increased instances of, and a desire for, accelerative computing, deep-recommender systems and large language models, as well as generative AI going forwards. The company is obviously at the forefront of some exciting developments, but heading into a recessionary environment we will have to monitor if spend in these area deteriorates as customers tighten the belt of spend associated with innovative computing efforts.</p><p>Notably, per management, the company has supposedly been able to navigate recent crises relatively well. As has been the hot topic of debate lately, NVDA was directly impacted by various parameters of the recent chip ban, of which ensures that integrated circuits with certain technical parameters were not able to be shipped to China. Put simply, the highest performing pieces of integrated circuitry were essentially prevented from making their way into the country, a direct attack on the country’s abilities to garner top-tier AI capabilities. As such, this dampened the company’s ability to export A100 and H100 products to China.</p><p>In response, NVDA came out with the A800 product as an alternative, a piece of hardware that abides to the US government export regulations and is unable to be programmed to exceed them. As a result, management outlined that these changes were able to largely offset the weakness associated with the restrictions, citing the fact that weakness in China overall, a phenomenon that was alluded to pre-restrictions, was the more noticeable deterrent of performance. Although the accuracy of these statements is up in the air, it will be interesting to see if A800s are able to be sufficient enough to be a full-on alternative, or if this will result in Chinese companies creating their own hardware and CUDA-like-alternative that ends up displacing the moat that NVDA currently finds themselves benefitting from. Only time will tell.</p><p>Moving on, it was no surprise that gaming came in weak, dwindling 51% YoY to come in at $1.574B in revenue for the quarter.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54cf549e710d9e80962fef76b2b09cc3\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NVDA mentioned the fact that they expect normalization and slight sequential growth going forwards, a phenomenon that may illustrate they’ve hit a bottom in this segment, but a phenomenon I find unlikely given the high-end ASP associated with their new graphics cards heading into a macroeconomic environment with deteriorating conditions. The pandemic was arguably the largest change we’ve seen to consumer behaviour seen in a very long time, and the pull-forward in associated spending that occurred as a result of lax monetary conditions and ludicrous fiscal stimulus was noticeable. Even despite their new hardware launches, the company is still facing the headwinds associated with inventory challenges, a phenomenon reflected by the lower sell-in they had with partners to help them align channel inventory this quarter, and a myriad of issues such as with crypto-market changes that contributed to an increase in secondhand market supply, as an example. I believe it will be a few quarters at the very least before gaming shows any signs of putting these issues in the rearview.</p><p>Automotive, though a lower proportion of total revenue, increased 86% YoY, a result of DRIVE orin-based production ramps scaling. NVDA outlined that this segment is likely to experience a sequential increase going forward, and they anticipate this to evolve into their next multi-billion dollar platform. Again given the macro environment it will be interesting to see how that counteracts a cutback in spending that may occur in the next few quarters; although there is no doubt that auto companies are focusing on these endeavours:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98da920b4f704d48e8dbf46e1428b319\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Lastly, professional visualization tanked, decreasing approximately 65% on a YoY basis and coming in at approximately $200M for the quarter. Again management cited these results are attributable to a continuation of the need to work through channel inventory issues, a phenomenon that they don’t anticipate to normalize heading into Q4.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7115809c8b8446e56316db6052e37f0b\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h2>When all of the segments are brought together, here’s how things look</h2><p>It is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are continuing to reach new heights, whereas Gaming and Professional Visualization continue to work through noticeable issues. Bringing these segments together, it is evident that the company is now severely reliant on the performance of the data center, a phenomenon that is both exciting given the dominant market share they hold in this segment and the high ceiling of growth potential, but also a source of potential fragility given the potential contraction in data center expenditures that may be looming over the horizon.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4b2a91b8bc45c189d2c28c591028ff7\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4793e0657604480db9da5e2b56c4dd84\" tg-width=\"682\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>All segments, spare Automotive are already in or are moving towards deceleration, and when viewed alongside the company’s guidance, this is even more concerning. Revenues are expected to come in at approximately $6B for Q4, with every segment spare professional visualization expected to increase sequentially. Given the small delta that exists between projected Q4 estimates and Q3 numbers ($6B vs. approximately $5.9B) this essentially means that the three segments experiencing QoQ increases will likely increase negligibly. With the company’s still-premium multiple and their behaviour conveying they may be experiencing negligible growth heading into 2023, this may point towards inevitable further compression of their market value going forwards.</p><p>The company’s GAAP margins do not paint any better of a picture. Gross Margins declined YoY from 65% to 54%, feeling the brunt of a $700M charge associated with lower data center demand in China, offset by a warranty benefit of approximately $70M. Operating expenses soared as a % of total revenue, coming in at approximately 43% of top-line compared to approximately 28% last year, primarily attributable to increased compensation and data infrastructure costs. Resultantly, operating margins declined, coming in at 10% for the quarter compared to 38% last year. Although the company’s revenue guide and gross margin guide (63% anticipated) are not horrible, they anticipate operating expenses to remain flat at approximately $2.56B. Performing basic calculations we arrive at the fact that operating margins for Q4 are likely to be approximately 20%, an improvement QoQ but still not indicative of NVDA being out of the woods just yet.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3f93417f6a16c247d05903b740a1bbc\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4168fb61ef492d69d08d3e9c0217743b\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"217\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dwindling margins, combined with a relatively consistent capex profile that matches previous years, resulted in the company’s free cash flow coming in at approximately $(156)M for the quarter, and this is even taking into consideration approximately $745M in SBC included in CFO, highlighting that the company has been creeping into cash burning mode, a phenomenon that will need to be monitored:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e461c6aa50611cf88338208979b04f34\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Looking at the company’s 9M values and taking into consideration the guidance, we are likely to see the lowest FY FCF margin values in quite some time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eed0abd3cd8d3c9da42ded213f6e1bba\" tg-width=\"361\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In short, for the time being FCF is declining in a manner that is non-accretive to shareholders. Lastly, it is worth discussing the company’s inventories, of which have bloated up over the course of the last year, increasing to approximately $4.45B for the quarter, 75% of revenue compared to 31% of revenue for the same time last year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b64d222246c8d7ae8ab72e1fe4bda3ac\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the conference call, NVDA’s CFO indicated that their inventory on hand was largely due to the upcoming architectures the company has coming to market including ADA, hopper, and other hardware related to their networking business. Although the company says they are always to looking at their inventory levels at the end of each quarter in an anticipatory nature, it is slightly hard to believe that the company’s inventory solely swelled as a result of these actions. In August, and many months prior, it was noted that NVDA was struggling with excess inventory associated with their RTX-3000 series ahead of the RTX-4000 launch. Given the nature of secondary markets at the moment, I find it is unlikely the company was able to normalize the RTX-3000 inventory bloating that quickly, given the state of the environment we are in right now. Inventory looks poor and only time will tell if they are able to normalize this swell heading into an increasingly difficult period.</p><p>In short, if I had to give a TLDR on the situation at NVDA at the moment it would be as follows:</p><ul><li><p>The company stands at the forefront of arguably some of the most promising subsections of the technology sector today. AI will likely be world-changing and through their data center business segment, NVDA is likely to reap the rewards given their 80%+ recent accelerator market share.</p></li><li><p>Gaming will likely recover as we enter into a more stable macroeconomic environment. This popular entertainment source is going nowhere and is likely to grow above GDP for sometime. NVDA will need to focus on not wilting on ever-growing competitive pressures and weather the aforementioned headwinds before reaping any reward.</p></li><li><p>Automotive is promising and is what the company believes to be their next multi-billion dollar platform. Although it is sustaining commendable growth thus far, only time will tell if customer spend will increase linearly, or if expenditures are reeled back in during economic turmoil due to the far-fetched nature of these engineering developments overall.</p></li><li><p>Similar to gaming, professional visualization will likely normalize heading into a more rosy economic situation, however, short-term inventory headwinds will continue to impact the segment heading into next quarter and likely for some time afterwards.</p></li><li><p>NVDA growth is concerning and with their new guidance it looks like even their best performing business segments are heading to a standstill. We’re at an interesting point in markets at the moment. Despite extreme financial tightness, the economy as a whole hasn’t deteriorated into disastrous areas. As the Fed likely continues to put their foot on the gas, a recession heading into next year is likely in my opinion. Given that, as well as the fact that S&amp;P 500 earnings are still too rosy and have yet to be downgraded to levels seen in previous recessions, I believe there may be further pain in equity markets. General market-based and economic weakness, combined with the fact that NVDA still has a relatively premium multiple and is unlikely to be able to sustain the levels of growth that they’ve been able to in the past, likely warrants further compression in the equity. With margins yet to recover to stable levels, continued relatively egregious SBC, and an unfavourable inventory situation, the amount of FCF made available to shareholders is likely to remain bleak for the next few quarters.</p></li></ul><p>In short, and as I alluded to in my original deep-dive, I believe NVDA is a phenomenal company that has managed to survive a plethora of situations that would have killed most companies. Given the spaces they operate at the forefront of, if they’re able to come out of this environment stronger, they’re likely to reap substantial rewards. Until then, I believe further short-term pain may be inevitable. We saw multiple compression when the company went through hardship at the end of the last decade, and I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect a similar or worse situation heading into a prolonged bear market, or one where a V-shaped recovery isn’t as probable. Time will tell if my hunches are right here.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/892bb319ef3cc312a20559d54393c858\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><i>This article is written by MT Capital Research for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia: Here We Go Again</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia: Here We Go Again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-23 15:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559886-nvidia-here-we-go-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryOver the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times.It is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559886-nvidia-here-we-go-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU1951198990.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund H-R/A SGD-H","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1951200564.SGD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A SGD","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","BK4567":"ESG概念","LU1923623000.USD":"Natixis Thematics AI & Robotics Fund R/A USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU2125909247.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta H-R/A SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2125909593.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A SGD","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4543":"AI","LU1316542783.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559886-nvidia-here-we-go-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285863595","content_text":"SummaryOver the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times.It is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are continuing to reach new heights, whereas Gaming and Professional Visualization continue to work through noticeable issues.I believe NVDA is a phenomenal company that has managed to survive a plethora of situations that would have killed most companies.Justin SullivanToday, I will be providing an update on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) after their recent Q3 earnings report. Therein, I will discuss how the company has been in this position before, delve into their recent earnings, analyze the potential direction of the company and its various business segments going forwards, and more.Note: All dollar values mentioned herein are in millions of USD.Let’s get started“Mechanical things can go in a straight line. Time moves ahead continuously. So can a machine when it’s adequately powered. But processes in fields like history and economics involve people, and when people are involved, the results are variable and cyclical.” - Howard MarksThere is something inherently beautiful about cyclicality. Booms and busts, highs and lows, euphoria and despair; these feelings are directly connected with the human condition, and creep their way into the institutions and complex systems that make up the very fabric of the world we inhabit today. These phenomena directly impact society and economies at large, and have repeated countless amounts of time throughout history. There is no doubt that as we exit an environment impacted by pandemic-fueled market euphoria, and as the “easy-money era” of QE comes to an end, we are entering into hard times, an inevitability given the cyclical nature of markets. With inflationary pressures rearing their ugly head, shortages turning into gluts, and the deterioration of stability creeping its way into a variety of our systems, many companies that were putting up record numbers a few months prior to now are now struggling to deal with a plethora of headwinds.NVDA is one of those companies - but this is a place that they’ve been before…In April of 1993 three young electrical engineers, Chris Malachowsky, Curtis Priem, and the now-CEO, Jen-Hsun Huang, decided to start a company that would create specialized chips in a San Jose Denny’s. With the benefit of hindsight, it is amazing that a company that now stands at the forefront of computing had such humble beginnings. Being that as it may, the journey to that point was not without its ups and downs.Take the launch of their first chip as an example. In 1995, the company went to market with their NV1 product, an effort that proved to be disastrous, resulting in a $10M loss and a layoff of half their then 80 person team, actions deemed essential to avoid imminent bankruptcy. Scattered throughout the remainder of NVDA’s history are situations where the company seemed to be quickly approaching destruction. As outlined in my original NVDA deep-dive, the rocky roads experienced of late aren’t even the worst drawdowns that NVDA shareholders have experienced:Over the course of its short lifespan, NVDA has had to reinvent itself three times. The company started off focused on PC graphics, pivoted to a centricity around programmable shaders, and now finds itself benefitting from a boom in parallel processing computing, bolstering several specialities ranging from visual computing, energy efficient programming, the go-to hardware choice at the forefront of the rapidly expanding data center and the AI applications therein, and more. Despite the plethora of opportunities the company has in front of it, NVDA finds itself, yet again, at a cross-road. With no end in sight to the downturn we find ourself in, it begs the question - will NVDA come out from this reinvented or will the weights on their shoulders continue to increase for the foreseeable future?Let’s dig into their most recent earnings to find outStarting off with revenues, overall top-line beat by 2.2%, coming in at approximately $5.931B vs. the consensus estimates of $5.805B, a decent surprise given the doom & gloom that has been surrounding the company of late but still a noticeable decline YoY, decelerating 16.5%:Despite this clear deceleration, how exactly have each of the business segments of NVDA been performing? NVDA exists as a full-stack company (i.e., with both software and hardware expertise), and as described in-depth in my NVDA deep-dive, primarily operates in four different business segments: Data Center, Gaming, Professional Visualization, Automotive.Data Center is primarily focused on providing hardware and software solutions for a variety of use cases ranging from AI to HPC, geared at hyperscalers, enterprise clients, research institutions, etc., as the end-users. Gaming is relatively self-explanatory and includes the company offering their graphical processing units for gaming PCs and laptops, in addition to a few other smaller bets such as the cloud gaming offering and multimedia devices, which understandably take a back-seat to the aforementioned gaming hardware, and are not something I expect to be hugely rewarding to shareholders going forward. Professional visualization encompasses a host of functionality but can be loosely defined as solutions aimed at 3D rendering, which work in conjunction with the company’s GPU architectures and associated computing languages, including the likes of Iray, Mental Ray, MDL, DesignWorks, etc. These products allow customers to create custom rendering applications, are tied to the company’s omniverse activities, etc. Automotive encompasses a series of hardware, software and infrastructure offerings such as the DRIVE supercomputing platform, software that leverages bundles of data gathered with hardware to assist with companies creating autonomous driving capabilities, as well as offerings tiered to data center and launchpad that allow customers to create AI and accelerated computing procedures related to autonomous vehicles.Starting off with Data Center, this segment generated record numbers, increasing 31% YoY to come in at approximately $3.8B.The data center segment, as outlined on the conference call, benefitted from heightened demand from US cloud providers and consumer internet companies. In addition, management also illustrated how they stand to benefit from increased instances of, and a desire for, accelerative computing, deep-recommender systems and large language models, as well as generative AI going forwards. The company is obviously at the forefront of some exciting developments, but heading into a recessionary environment we will have to monitor if spend in these area deteriorates as customers tighten the belt of spend associated with innovative computing efforts.Notably, per management, the company has supposedly been able to navigate recent crises relatively well. As has been the hot topic of debate lately, NVDA was directly impacted by various parameters of the recent chip ban, of which ensures that integrated circuits with certain technical parameters were not able to be shipped to China. Put simply, the highest performing pieces of integrated circuitry were essentially prevented from making their way into the country, a direct attack on the country’s abilities to garner top-tier AI capabilities. As such, this dampened the company’s ability to export A100 and H100 products to China.In response, NVDA came out with the A800 product as an alternative, a piece of hardware that abides to the US government export regulations and is unable to be programmed to exceed them. As a result, management outlined that these changes were able to largely offset the weakness associated with the restrictions, citing the fact that weakness in China overall, a phenomenon that was alluded to pre-restrictions, was the more noticeable deterrent of performance. Although the accuracy of these statements is up in the air, it will be interesting to see if A800s are able to be sufficient enough to be a full-on alternative, or if this will result in Chinese companies creating their own hardware and CUDA-like-alternative that ends up displacing the moat that NVDA currently finds themselves benefitting from. Only time will tell.Moving on, it was no surprise that gaming came in weak, dwindling 51% YoY to come in at $1.574B in revenue for the quarter.NVDA mentioned the fact that they expect normalization and slight sequential growth going forwards, a phenomenon that may illustrate they’ve hit a bottom in this segment, but a phenomenon I find unlikely given the high-end ASP associated with their new graphics cards heading into a macroeconomic environment with deteriorating conditions. The pandemic was arguably the largest change we’ve seen to consumer behaviour seen in a very long time, and the pull-forward in associated spending that occurred as a result of lax monetary conditions and ludicrous fiscal stimulus was noticeable. Even despite their new hardware launches, the company is still facing the headwinds associated with inventory challenges, a phenomenon reflected by the lower sell-in they had with partners to help them align channel inventory this quarter, and a myriad of issues such as with crypto-market changes that contributed to an increase in secondhand market supply, as an example. I believe it will be a few quarters at the very least before gaming shows any signs of putting these issues in the rearview.Automotive, though a lower proportion of total revenue, increased 86% YoY, a result of DRIVE orin-based production ramps scaling. NVDA outlined that this segment is likely to experience a sequential increase going forward, and they anticipate this to evolve into their next multi-billion dollar platform. Again given the macro environment it will be interesting to see how that counteracts a cutback in spending that may occur in the next few quarters; although there is no doubt that auto companies are focusing on these endeavours:Lastly, professional visualization tanked, decreasing approximately 65% on a YoY basis and coming in at approximately $200M for the quarter. Again management cited these results are attributable to a continuation of the need to work through channel inventory issues, a phenomenon that they don’t anticipate to normalize heading into Q4.When all of the segments are brought together, here’s how things lookIt is clear that there are some business segments, particularly with Data Center and Automotive, that are continuing to reach new heights, whereas Gaming and Professional Visualization continue to work through noticeable issues. Bringing these segments together, it is evident that the company is now severely reliant on the performance of the data center, a phenomenon that is both exciting given the dominant market share they hold in this segment and the high ceiling of growth potential, but also a source of potential fragility given the potential contraction in data center expenditures that may be looming over the horizon.All segments, spare Automotive are already in or are moving towards deceleration, and when viewed alongside the company’s guidance, this is even more concerning. Revenues are expected to come in at approximately $6B for Q4, with every segment spare professional visualization expected to increase sequentially. Given the small delta that exists between projected Q4 estimates and Q3 numbers ($6B vs. approximately $5.9B) this essentially means that the three segments experiencing QoQ increases will likely increase negligibly. With the company’s still-premium multiple and their behaviour conveying they may be experiencing negligible growth heading into 2023, this may point towards inevitable further compression of their market value going forwards.The company’s GAAP margins do not paint any better of a picture. Gross Margins declined YoY from 65% to 54%, feeling the brunt of a $700M charge associated with lower data center demand in China, offset by a warranty benefit of approximately $70M. Operating expenses soared as a % of total revenue, coming in at approximately 43% of top-line compared to approximately 28% last year, primarily attributable to increased compensation and data infrastructure costs. Resultantly, operating margins declined, coming in at 10% for the quarter compared to 38% last year. Although the company’s revenue guide and gross margin guide (63% anticipated) are not horrible, they anticipate operating expenses to remain flat at approximately $2.56B. Performing basic calculations we arrive at the fact that operating margins for Q4 are likely to be approximately 20%, an improvement QoQ but still not indicative of NVDA being out of the woods just yet.Dwindling margins, combined with a relatively consistent capex profile that matches previous years, resulted in the company’s free cash flow coming in at approximately $(156)M for the quarter, and this is even taking into consideration approximately $745M in SBC included in CFO, highlighting that the company has been creeping into cash burning mode, a phenomenon that will need to be monitored:Looking at the company’s 9M values and taking into consideration the guidance, we are likely to see the lowest FY FCF margin values in quite some time.In short, for the time being FCF is declining in a manner that is non-accretive to shareholders. Lastly, it is worth discussing the company’s inventories, of which have bloated up over the course of the last year, increasing to approximately $4.45B for the quarter, 75% of revenue compared to 31% of revenue for the same time last year:On the conference call, NVDA’s CFO indicated that their inventory on hand was largely due to the upcoming architectures the company has coming to market including ADA, hopper, and other hardware related to their networking business. Although the company says they are always to looking at their inventory levels at the end of each quarter in an anticipatory nature, it is slightly hard to believe that the company’s inventory solely swelled as a result of these actions. In August, and many months prior, it was noted that NVDA was struggling with excess inventory associated with their RTX-3000 series ahead of the RTX-4000 launch. Given the nature of secondary markets at the moment, I find it is unlikely the company was able to normalize the RTX-3000 inventory bloating that quickly, given the state of the environment we are in right now. Inventory looks poor and only time will tell if they are able to normalize this swell heading into an increasingly difficult period.In short, if I had to give a TLDR on the situation at NVDA at the moment it would be as follows:The company stands at the forefront of arguably some of the most promising subsections of the technology sector today. AI will likely be world-changing and through their data center business segment, NVDA is likely to reap the rewards given their 80%+ recent accelerator market share.Gaming will likely recover as we enter into a more stable macroeconomic environment. This popular entertainment source is going nowhere and is likely to grow above GDP for sometime. NVDA will need to focus on not wilting on ever-growing competitive pressures and weather the aforementioned headwinds before reaping any reward.Automotive is promising and is what the company believes to be their next multi-billion dollar platform. Although it is sustaining commendable growth thus far, only time will tell if customer spend will increase linearly, or if expenditures are reeled back in during economic turmoil due to the far-fetched nature of these engineering developments overall.Similar to gaming, professional visualization will likely normalize heading into a more rosy economic situation, however, short-term inventory headwinds will continue to impact the segment heading into next quarter and likely for some time afterwards.NVDA growth is concerning and with their new guidance it looks like even their best performing business segments are heading to a standstill. We’re at an interesting point in markets at the moment. Despite extreme financial tightness, the economy as a whole hasn’t deteriorated into disastrous areas. As the Fed likely continues to put their foot on the gas, a recession heading into next year is likely in my opinion. Given that, as well as the fact that S&P 500 earnings are still too rosy and have yet to be downgraded to levels seen in previous recessions, I believe there may be further pain in equity markets. General market-based and economic weakness, combined with the fact that NVDA still has a relatively premium multiple and is unlikely to be able to sustain the levels of growth that they’ve been able to in the past, likely warrants further compression in the equity. With margins yet to recover to stable levels, continued relatively egregious SBC, and an unfavourable inventory situation, the amount of FCF made available to shareholders is likely to remain bleak for the next few quarters.In short, and as I alluded to in my original deep-dive, I believe NVDA is a phenomenal company that has managed to survive a plethora of situations that would have killed most companies. Given the spaces they operate at the forefront of, if they’re able to come out of this environment stronger, they’re likely to reap substantial rewards. Until then, I believe further short-term pain may be inevitable. We saw multiple compression when the company went through hardship at the end of the last decade, and I don’t think it is unreasonable to expect a similar or worse situation heading into a prolonged bear market, or one where a V-shaped recovery isn’t as probable. Time will tell if my hunches are right here.This article is written by MT Capital Research for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985350129,"gmtCreate":1667319198261,"gmtModify":1676537897703,"author":{"id":"3581684344799764","authorId":"3581684344799764","name":"Blueskyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c322e00a96aaf8827cb1ac21ac63d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581684344799764","authorIdStr":"3581684344799764"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985350129","repostId":"1147838107","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147838107","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667316414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147838107?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-01 23:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147838107","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Another 0.75-point rise is likely this week, as the pace of future moves takes the spotlightWall Str","content":"<div>\n<p>Another 0.75-point rise is likely this week, as the pace of future moves takes the spotlightWall Street analysts will be focused Wednesday on what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-01 23:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181?mod=hp_lead_pos1><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Another 0.75-point rise is likely this week, as the pace of future moves takes the spotlightWall Street analysts will be focused Wednesday on what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says about ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181?mod=hp_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147838107","content_text":"Another 0.75-point rise is likely this week, as the pace of future moves takes the spotlightWall Street analysts will be focused Wednesday on what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says about whether the central bank might slow down interest-rate rises at its next policy meeting in December.Fed officials have already indicated that they are likely to raise their benchmark federal-funds rate by 0.75 percentage point this week to a range between 3.75% and 4%. That would mark their fourth consecutive increase of that size as they seek to reduce inflation by slowing the economy. Some of the officials recently began signaling their desire to start reducing the size of increases after this week and to potentially stop lifting rates early next year so they can see the effects of their moves.Those officials and several private-sector economists have warned of growing risks that the Fed will raise rates too much and cause an unnecessarily sharp slowdown. Until June, the Fed hadn’t raised interest rates by 0.75 point, or 75 basis points, since 1994.“They have to think about calibration at this meeting. You’re trying to cool down an economy, not throw it into a deep freeze,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG.Fed officials widely supported the supersize rate increases this summer because they were playing catch-up. Inflation has been running close to 40-year highs, but interest rates were pinned near zero until March. Debate over how much more to raise rates could intensify as they reach levels more likely to restrain spending, hiring and investment. The fed-funds rate influences other borrowing costs throughout the economy, including rates on credit cards, mortgages and car loans.“They do need to slow the pace. Let’s keep in mind, 50 basis points is fast; 75 basis points is really fast,” said Ellen Meade, an economist at Duke University who is a former senior adviser at the Fed.December would be a natural time to slow the pace of rate increases because officials could use new projections at that meeting to show they expect to reach a higher peak or terminal interest rate than they had previously anticipated, she said. The debate over the speed of increases could obscure a more important one around how high rates ultimately rise. “Going faster now is about raising the terminal rate,” Ms. Meade said.But some analysts say it will be difficult for the Fed to dial back the pace of rate increases in December because they expect inflation to continue to run hotter than other analysts forecast. Fed officials had expected inflation to decline this year, but that outlook has been in vain so far. They responded by targeting a higher destination for the fed-funds rate than they projected earlier in the year, resulting in the longer-than-anticipated string of 0.75-point rate rises.Officials at their September meeting projected that they would need to raise the rate to at least 4.6% by early next year. “If you have broad agreement on that and inflation keeps coming in higher than expected, it makes sense to get to that peak rate sooner,” said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.Analysts at Deutsche Bank, UBS, Credit Suisse and Nomura Securities expect the Fed to follow this week’s 0.75-point rate rise with an increase of the same size in December.Meanwhile, analysts at Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Evercore ISI see the Fed dialing back the pace of rate rises in December with a 0.5-point increase.Economic data released since the Fed’s September meeting have been mixed. While domestic demand has slowed and the housing market is entering a sharp downturn, the job market has remained strong and inflation pressures have stayed elevated. Recent earnings reports have shown strong consumer demand and pricing increases.Officials will see two more months of economic reports before their mid-December meeting, including on hiring and inflation. “Even if Powell provides guidance at his press conference, it won’t involve a commitment. That’s because the decision does need to be data determined,” wrote former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, who runs economic-forecasting firm LH Meyer Inc., in a recent report.Some economists say the Fed will have to raise the fed-funds rate higher than 4.6% next year because of the resilience of consumer spending and domestic demand to higher rates so far.Strategists at FHN Financial expect the Fed to raise its policy rate to about 6% by next June. After this week’s increase, the Fed could accomplish that without another 0.75-point rate rise.“The obvious dilemma for financial markets is many things can be true simultaneously, and a lot of them pull in different directions. The Fed could slow in December, but then still get to the 6% in our forecast,” said Jim Vogel of FHN Financial, in a note to clients Monday.The Fed combats inflation by slowing the economy through tighter financial conditions—such as higher borrowing costs, lower stock prices and a stronger dollar—that curb demand. Changes to the anticipated trajectory of rates, and not just what the Fed does at any meeting, can influence broader financial conditions.Many investors this year have been eager to interpret signs of a less aggressive rate-rise pace as a sign that a pause in rate increases isn’t far off, but a sustained market rally risks undoing the Fed’s work of slowing down the economy.Any discussion by Mr. Powell about how officials see the potential for a higher rate path could temper any market exuberance about a slower pace of increases, economists said. “It is now about the destination, not the journey,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Bank of America, in a report Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9089720873,"gmtCreate":1650035810734,"gmtModify":1676534633787,"author":{"id":"3581684344799764","authorId":"3581684344799764","name":"Blueskyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c322e00a96aaf8827cb1ac21ac63d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581684344799764","authorIdStr":"3581684344799764"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FSLY\">$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$</a>Nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FSLY\">$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$</a>Nice","text":"$Fastly, Inc.(FSLY)$Nice","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/97f42b72ff4f60fbd82b741a49f4bfd2","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9089720873","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963278482,"gmtCreate":1668703928247,"gmtModify":1676538100230,"author":{"id":"3581684344799764","authorId":"3581684344799764","name":"Blueskyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c322e00a96aaf8827cb1ac21ac63d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581684344799764","authorIdStr":"3581684344799764"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Of","listText":"Of","text":"Of","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963278482","repostId":"1126670970","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981079774,"gmtCreate":1666359561198,"gmtModify":1676537746522,"author":{"id":"3581684344799764","authorId":"3581684344799764","name":"Blueskyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c322e00a96aaf8827cb1ac21ac63d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581684344799764","authorIdStr":"3581684344799764"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9981079774","repostId":"1130755577","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130755577","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666359098,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130755577?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-21 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Fall Slightly As Investors Weigh Potential for Fed to Slow Rate Hikes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130755577","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks eased on Friday as investors assessed more corporate earnings reports and the outlook for Fed","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks eased on Friday as investors assessed more corporate earnings reports and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate hikes.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34 points, or 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was off by 0.2%.</p><p>Treasury yields fell from their highs and futures bounced off their lows after areport from the Wall Street Journalthat some Fed officials are concerned about overtightening with large rate hikes.</p><p>Earnings reports seemed to limit gains from futures. Dow components American Express and Verizon fell more than 4% in premarket trading after their quarterly report.</p><p>In tech, social media company Snap reported a quarterly revenue of $1.13 billion, below expectations. That revenuerepresents year-over-year growth of just 6%. Average revenue per user, a key metric for the company, fell 11% to $3.11.</p><p>“The mindset is quite gloomy w/stocks for sale pretty much everywhere. The culprit behind the negativity is earnings w/a slew of disappointments around the world,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.</p><p>Stocks are on a two-day losing streak, with the Dow shedding 90.22 points, or 0.3%, on Thursday. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down 0.8% and and 0.6%, respectively.</p><p>It was a day that started on better footing for the Dow, which was up nearly 400 points at session highs, but rising Treasury yields threw cold water on stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading at levels not seen since 2008. On Friday, it traded around 4.29%.</p><p>The major averages are still on track for a winning week, up more than 2% through Thursday.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Fall Slightly As Investors Weigh Potential for Fed to Slow Rate Hikes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Fall Slightly As Investors Weigh Potential for Fed to Slow Rate Hikes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-21 21:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Stocks eased on Friday as investors assessed more corporate earnings reports and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate hikes.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34 points, or 0.1%. The S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was off by 0.2%.</p><p>Treasury yields fell from their highs and futures bounced off their lows after areport from the Wall Street Journalthat some Fed officials are concerned about overtightening with large rate hikes.</p><p>Earnings reports seemed to limit gains from futures. Dow components American Express and Verizon fell more than 4% in premarket trading after their quarterly report.</p><p>In tech, social media company Snap reported a quarterly revenue of $1.13 billion, below expectations. That revenuerepresents year-over-year growth of just 6%. Average revenue per user, a key metric for the company, fell 11% to $3.11.</p><p>“The mindset is quite gloomy w/stocks for sale pretty much everywhere. The culprit behind the negativity is earnings w/a slew of disappointments around the world,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.</p><p>Stocks are on a two-day losing streak, with the Dow shedding 90.22 points, or 0.3%, on Thursday. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down 0.8% and and 0.6%, respectively.</p><p>It was a day that started on better footing for the Dow, which was up nearly 400 points at session highs, but rising Treasury yields threw cold water on stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading at levels not seen since 2008. On Friday, it traded around 4.29%.</p><p>The major averages are still on track for a winning week, up more than 2% through Thursday.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130755577","content_text":"Stocks eased on Friday as investors assessed more corporate earnings reports and the outlook for Federal Reserve rate hikes.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 34 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was off by 0.2%.Treasury yields fell from their highs and futures bounced off their lows after areport from the Wall Street Journalthat some Fed officials are concerned about overtightening with large rate hikes.Earnings reports seemed to limit gains from futures. Dow components American Express and Verizon fell more than 4% in premarket trading after their quarterly report.In tech, social media company Snap reported a quarterly revenue of $1.13 billion, below expectations. That revenuerepresents year-over-year growth of just 6%. Average revenue per user, a key metric for the company, fell 11% to $3.11.“The mindset is quite gloomy w/stocks for sale pretty much everywhere. The culprit behind the negativity is earnings w/a slew of disappointments around the world,” wrote Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.Stocks are on a two-day losing streak, with the Dow shedding 90.22 points, or 0.3%, on Thursday. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were down 0.8% and and 0.6%, respectively.It was a day that started on better footing for the Dow, which was up nearly 400 points at session highs, but rising Treasury yields threw cold water on stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading at levels not seen since 2008. On Friday, it traded around 4.29%.The major averages are still on track for a winning week, up more than 2% through Thursday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912631526,"gmtCreate":1664812131165,"gmtModify":1676537512585,"author":{"id":"3581684344799764","authorId":"3581684344799764","name":"Blueskyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c322e00a96aaf8827cb1ac21ac63d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581684344799764","authorIdStr":"3581684344799764"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912631526","repostId":"1155119620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155119620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664810520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155119620?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 23:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Hello Recession","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155119620","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Hallow","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>A friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4&#39;22 earnings on 27 October 2022.</li><li>It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Halloween.</li><li>If the reports were indeed true, we might see the company report impacted earnings for H2&#39;22.</li><li>That would put more downward pressure on the stock performance of the world&#39;s largest market cap company, which has been greatly see-sawing for the past year.</li><li>Tragic indeed, since we were more hopeful.</li></ul><p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p>Apple&#39;s (NASDAQ:AAPL) throne as the world&#39;s most valuable company seems a little shaky, with the onslaught of negative news thus far. The company had to cut itsiPhone14 production output by -6.66%, back to its original plan of 90M handsets, similar to previous releases. On one hand, we expect some of those headwinds to be well balanced by the robust demand for its premium models, compensating for the lost volume with higher margins. On the other hand, it is apparent that the rising inflation, record high oil/gas prices, China&#39;s economic slump (one of AAPL&#39;s best markets), and geopolitical issues in the EU are impacting consumers&#39; discretionary spending, with the global smartphone market expected to deflate by -6.5% in 2022 to 1.27B units instead.</p><p>It remains to be seen if the Cupertino giant will suffer financially during this economic downturn, since the previous recession in 2008 had impacted AAPL&#39;s top and bottom lines growth to a certain extent. The company reported a notable YoY growth of 14.4% in revenues and 34.69% in net incomes for FY2009, compared to 52.5% and 75.07% in FY2009. The recessionary impacts were considerably mild then, since consumer discretionary spending remained relatively robust for the company.</p><p>Nonetheless, we are already starting to see some stock weaknesses. AAPL has continuously failed to break its resistance level at the $180s and, consequently, lost -22.10% of its value from its peak levels in March and August 2022. The S&amp;P 500 Index had also plunged by -24.10% YTD, indicating peak market pessimism and fear levels. During the previous recession, both stocks had tanked, with AAPL reporting a -52.21% plunge and the S&amp;P 500 a -43.37% plunge between August and December 2008.</p><p>However, all hope is not lost, since the September CPI released in early October may provide the potential catalyst for the stock market&#39;s recovery, due to the Fed&#39;s projected terminal rate of4.6% by 2023. This potentially indicates a 75 basis point hike in November, with January 2023 moderating with a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we may speculatively assume that most of the pessimism is already baked in, barring an earnings miss ahead. We shall see.</p><p><b>Mr. Market Is Still Hopeful About This Last Frontier</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e6e5a1cae35b8931343e48558a302b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>For FQ4&#39;22, AAPL is expected to report revenues of $88.74B and operating margins of 27.4%, representing an increase of 6.96% though a moderation of 0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, an increase of 6.45% and a decline of -1.1 percentage points YoY, respectively, with the latter attributed to the rising costs. It remains to be seen if AAPL will be able to achieve its previous guidance of accelerated sales and gross margins between 41.5% to 42.5% for FQ4&#39;22.</p><p>In contrast, consensus estimates that AAPL will report net incomes of $20.37B and net income margins of 23% for the upcoming quarter, indicating certain headwinds to its profitability, with a minimal increase of 4.78% and a decline of -0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, a notable decline of -0.87% and -1.7 percentage points YoY, respectively. With an estimated EPS of $1.27 for FQ4&#39;22, AAPL would be looking at a decent 5.83% QoQ and 2.07% YoY growth. It might just be enough to satisfy Mr. Market&#39;s highly pessimistic outlook, preserving its cult stock status ahead.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4647325ee184db498185ed216ae70003\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Nonetheless, Mr. Market is cautiously confident about AAPL&#39;s projected cash flow, with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $21.89B and an FCF margin of 24.6% in FQ4&#39;22. It indicated a decent improvement of 5.29% and -0.5 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, massive YoY growth of 28.91% and 4.2 percentage points, respectively. AAPL&#39;s chances of success would be higher as well, assuming aggressive cost cuts across the board. We shall see, given the historical trend of elevated capital expenditures thus far, especially in FQ4s.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2272b2e2674db1028a34156cdb527164\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"354\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Over the next four years, AAPL is expected to report revenue and net income growth at a CAGR of 5.19% and 2.98%, respectively. For now, Mr. Market remains somewhat positive, since these long-term projections and FY2022 estimates remain in line since our previous analysis in August, though slightly discounted by -2.9% since May 2022. Its upcoming earnings call will make or break AAPL&#39;s stock performance, as the EU enters its first winter without Russian gas and the Feds continue to fight against the rising inflation through 2023.</p><p>In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.</p><ul><li>Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed Reality</li><li>AnAppleA Day Keeps The Portfolio Healthy (And Potentially, Recession At Bay)</li><li>CanAppleBe The New Tesla - Smartphone On Wheels By 2025?</li></ul><p><b>So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E Valuations</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a36ca45afe53753e7a5a6854436f2769\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>AAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 22.92x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.63x and 21.94x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $142.84, down -21.91% from its 52 weeks high of $182.94, though at a premium of 10.69% from its 52 weeks low of $129.04. With a consensus estimate price target of $188.22, it is apparent that there is still a notable 32.10% upside from current prices</p><p><b>AAPL &amp; SPY 5Y/1Y Stock Price</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c1e569f2277b0630924e459640a4bc9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>S&amp;P Capital IQ</p><p>Both stocks also have had a relatively interesting co-existing relationship in their performance thus far, naturally, since AAPL accounts for 7.1% of the S&amp;P 500 Index weighting. While APPL obviously had better returns thus far for the past 5Y at 289.6% and 10Y at 597.4%, the S&amp;P 500 has also fared comparatively decent with 57.4% and 204.2%, respectively. These numbers are impressive, given that many other stocks have been decimated thus far.</p><p>With the stocks trading below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, both look relatively attractive, considering the massive returns upon market recovery by Q1&#39;23. Naturally, the market will always be full of pitfalls for anyone who tries to pitch the perfect timing, since there may still be some downsides from current levels. As a result, investors with higher risk tolerances may consider nibbling at these levels, fully understanding the great importance of AAPL through the next decade.</p><p>Otherwise, conservative investors (like myself) will be waiting for more clarity from its upcoming earnings call, since the whole market seems to be heading for destruction one way or another. With little catalyst for short-term recovery, the AAPL stock will be testing the June lows of $130s over the next week or so. If that support level is breached, my oh my, we are in for a catastrophic rollercoaster ride indeed. Good luck all.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Hello Recession</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Hello Recession\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-03 23:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543980-apple-hello-recession","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155119620","content_text":"SummaryA friendly reminder that AAPL will be reporting its FQ4'22 earnings on 27 October 2022.It seems that this giant could not escape the dreary recession party, just in time for the upcoming Halloween.If the reports were indeed true, we might see the company report impacted earnings for H2'22.That would put more downward pressure on the stock performance of the world's largest market cap company, which has been greatly see-sawing for the past year.Tragic indeed, since we were more hopeful.Investment ThesisApple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) throne as the world's most valuable company seems a little shaky, with the onslaught of negative news thus far. The company had to cut itsiPhone14 production output by -6.66%, back to its original plan of 90M handsets, similar to previous releases. On one hand, we expect some of those headwinds to be well balanced by the robust demand for its premium models, compensating for the lost volume with higher margins. On the other hand, it is apparent that the rising inflation, record high oil/gas prices, China's economic slump (one of AAPL's best markets), and geopolitical issues in the EU are impacting consumers' discretionary spending, with the global smartphone market expected to deflate by -6.5% in 2022 to 1.27B units instead.It remains to be seen if the Cupertino giant will suffer financially during this economic downturn, since the previous recession in 2008 had impacted AAPL's top and bottom lines growth to a certain extent. The company reported a notable YoY growth of 14.4% in revenues and 34.69% in net incomes for FY2009, compared to 52.5% and 75.07% in FY2009. The recessionary impacts were considerably mild then, since consumer discretionary spending remained relatively robust for the company.Nonetheless, we are already starting to see some stock weaknesses. AAPL has continuously failed to break its resistance level at the $180s and, consequently, lost -22.10% of its value from its peak levels in March and August 2022. The S&P 500 Index had also plunged by -24.10% YTD, indicating peak market pessimism and fear levels. During the previous recession, both stocks had tanked, with AAPL reporting a -52.21% plunge and the S&P 500 a -43.37% plunge between August and December 2008.However, all hope is not lost, since the September CPI released in early October may provide the potential catalyst for the stock market's recovery, due to the Fed's projected terminal rate of4.6% by 2023. This potentially indicates a 75 basis point hike in November, with January 2023 moderating with a 50 basis point hike. Therefore, we may speculatively assume that most of the pessimism is already baked in, barring an earnings miss ahead. We shall see.Mr. Market Is Still Hopeful About This Last FrontierS&P Capital IQFor FQ4'22, AAPL is expected to report revenues of $88.74B and operating margins of 27.4%, representing an increase of 6.96% though a moderation of 0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, an increase of 6.45% and a decline of -1.1 percentage points YoY, respectively, with the latter attributed to the rising costs. It remains to be seen if AAPL will be able to achieve its previous guidance of accelerated sales and gross margins between 41.5% to 42.5% for FQ4'22.In contrast, consensus estimates that AAPL will report net incomes of $20.37B and net income margins of 23% for the upcoming quarter, indicating certain headwinds to its profitability, with a minimal increase of 4.78% and a decline of -0.4 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, a notable decline of -0.87% and -1.7 percentage points YoY, respectively. With an estimated EPS of $1.27 for FQ4'22, AAPL would be looking at a decent 5.83% QoQ and 2.07% YoY growth. It might just be enough to satisfy Mr. Market's highly pessimistic outlook, preserving its cult stock status ahead.S&P Capital IQNonetheless, Mr. Market is cautiously confident about AAPL's projected cash flow, with a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generation of $21.89B and an FCF margin of 24.6% in FQ4'22. It indicated a decent improvement of 5.29% and -0.5 percentage points QoQ, respectively. Otherwise, massive YoY growth of 28.91% and 4.2 percentage points, respectively. AAPL's chances of success would be higher as well, assuming aggressive cost cuts across the board. We shall see, given the historical trend of elevated capital expenditures thus far, especially in FQ4s.S&P Capital IQOver the next four years, AAPL is expected to report revenue and net income growth at a CAGR of 5.19% and 2.98%, respectively. For now, Mr. Market remains somewhat positive, since these long-term projections and FY2022 estimates remain in line since our previous analysis in August, though slightly discounted by -2.9% since May 2022. Its upcoming earnings call will make or break AAPL's stock performance, as the EU enters its first winter without Russian gas and the Feds continue to fight against the rising inflation through 2023.In the meantime, we encourage you to read our previous article on AAPL, which would help you better understand its position and market opportunities.Apple Vs. Meta: Battle Of The Mixed RealityAnAppleA Day Keeps The Portfolio Healthy (And Potentially, Recession At Bay)CanAppleBe The New Tesla - Smartphone On Wheels By 2025?So, Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL 5Y EV/Revenue and P/E ValuationsS&P Capital IQAAPL is currently trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 5.81x and NTM P/E of 22.92x, higher than its 5Y mean of 4.63x and 21.94x, respectively. The stock is also trading at $142.84, down -21.91% from its 52 weeks high of $182.94, though at a premium of 10.69% from its 52 weeks low of $129.04. With a consensus estimate price target of $188.22, it is apparent that there is still a notable 32.10% upside from current pricesAAPL & SPY 5Y/1Y Stock PriceS&P Capital IQBoth stocks also have had a relatively interesting co-existing relationship in their performance thus far, naturally, since AAPL accounts for 7.1% of the S&P 500 Index weighting. While APPL obviously had better returns thus far for the past 5Y at 289.6% and 10Y at 597.4%, the S&P 500 has also fared comparatively decent with 57.4% and 204.2%, respectively. These numbers are impressive, given that many other stocks have been decimated thus far.With the stocks trading below their 50 and 100-day moving averages, both look relatively attractive, considering the massive returns upon market recovery by Q1'23. Naturally, the market will always be full of pitfalls for anyone who tries to pitch the perfect timing, since there may still be some downsides from current levels. As a result, investors with higher risk tolerances may consider nibbling at these levels, fully understanding the great importance of AAPL through the next decade.Otherwise, conservative investors (like myself) will be waiting for more clarity from its upcoming earnings call, since the whole market seems to be heading for destruction one way or another. With little catalyst for short-term recovery, the AAPL stock will be testing the June lows of $130s over the next week or so. If that support level is breached, my oh my, we are in for a catastrophic rollercoaster ride indeed. Good luck all.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934911592,"gmtCreate":1663172502416,"gmtModify":1676537219958,"author":{"id":"3581684344799764","authorId":"3581684344799764","name":"Blueskyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c322e00a96aaf8827cb1ac21ac63d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581684344799764","authorIdStr":"3581684344799764"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Up and away","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Up and away","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Up and away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934911592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813814689,"gmtCreate":1630169815641,"gmtModify":1676530237598,"author":{"id":"3581684344799764","authorId":"3581684344799764","name":"Blueskyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c322e00a96aaf8827cb1ac21ac63d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581684344799764","authorIdStr":"3581684344799764"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice on","listText":"Nice on","text":"Nice on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813814689","repostId":"2162907389","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989348689,"gmtCreate":1665923913941,"gmtModify":1676537679817,"author":{"id":"3581684344799764","authorId":"3581684344799764","name":"Blueskyyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d6c322e00a96aaf8827cb1ac21ac63d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581684344799764","authorIdStr":"3581684344799764"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Up","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>Up","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989348689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}