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W19832009

W19832009

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2021-05-06

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2021-05-04

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Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.

2021-05-03

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Opening: The Hang Seng Index open low rose 0.23%, while Fosun Pharma rose over 2%.

2021-04-25

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The US dollar's massive monetary easing, global stimulus, and the strongest inflation have wiped out all living beings!

2021-04-24

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The latest holdings of the social security fund have been revealed! The opportunity to copy homework has arrived.

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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16:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108179146,"gmtCreate":1620007407285,"gmtModify":1704337261520,"author":{"id":"3581772836193010","authorId":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","idStr":"3581772836193010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108179146","repostId":"1190906684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190906684","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620005114,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190906684?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 09:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Opening: The Hang Seng Index open low rose 0.23%, while Fosun Pharma rose over 2%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190906684","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月3日讯，五一假期A股休市，港股主要指数开盘涨跌不一，恒指跌0.23%报28659点，国指跌0.19%报10805点，恒生科技指数涨0.02%报8314点。蒙牛乳业、龙湖集团跌逾1%，领跌恒指。盘面","content":"<p>May 3 - A-shares were closed for the May Day holiday, and major Hong Kong stock indices opened mixed. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.23% to 28,659 points, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.19% to 10,805 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.02% to 8,314 points.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">Mengniu Dairy</a>Longfor Group fell more than 1%, leading the decline in the Hang Seng Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc7544aa636ba3214cfe8695c9e5b36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the market, pharmaceutical stocks and port and shipping stocks performed strongly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01558\">Dongyang Guangyao</a>Both opened more than 2% higher; Hong Kong bank stocks, gas stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks, and non-ferrous metals stocks generally rose, while large technology stocks experienced relatively little volatility.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Opened slightly higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Kuaishou and Xiaomi open flat; Property management stocks showed significant open low, while oil and photovoltaic stocks mostly weakened.</p><p>Blockchain concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01499\">OK Cloud Chain</a>It rose nearly 14%, Huobi rose nearly 5%, and Meitu rose nearly 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Credit Suisse opened 2.4% higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>The target price has been raised to HK$52; According to reports, the COVID-19 vaccine \"Fubitai\" may be approved in mainland China in June or July.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00418\">Founder Holdings</a>Founder Group opened 14% higher against the market trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">Ping An</a>Zhuhai Huafa and others signed a restructuring investment agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The group rose 0.07%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Logistics submitted a post-hearing information set to the Stock Exchange in relation to the proposed spin-off.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: The Hang Seng Index open low rose 0.23%, while Fosun Pharma rose over 2%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: The Hang Seng Index open low rose 0.23%, while Fosun Pharma rose over 2%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-03 09:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>May 3 - A-shares were closed for the May Day holiday, and major Hong Kong stock indices opened mixed. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.23% to 28,659 points, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.19% to 10,805 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.02% to 8,314 points.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">Mengniu Dairy</a>Longfor Group fell more than 1%, leading the decline in the Hang Seng Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc7544aa636ba3214cfe8695c9e5b36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the market, pharmaceutical stocks and port and shipping stocks performed strongly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01558\">Dongyang Guangyao</a>Both opened more than 2% higher; Hong Kong bank stocks, gas stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks, and non-ferrous metals stocks generally rose, while large technology stocks experienced relatively little volatility.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Opened slightly higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Kuaishou and Xiaomi open flat; Property management stocks showed significant open low, while oil and photovoltaic stocks mostly weakened.</p><p>Blockchain concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01499\">OK Cloud Chain</a>It rose nearly 14%, Huobi rose nearly 5%, and Meitu rose nearly 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Credit Suisse opened 2.4% higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>The target price has been raised to HK$52; According to reports, the COVID-19 vaccine \"Fubitai\" may be approved in mainland China in June or July.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00418\">Founder Holdings</a>Founder Group opened 14% higher against the market trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">Ping An</a>Zhuhai Huafa and others signed a restructuring investment agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The group rose 0.07%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Logistics submitted a post-hearing information set to the Stock Exchange in relation to the proposed spin-off.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","600196":"复星医药","HSI":"恒生指数","02196":"复星医药","02833":"恒指ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190906684","content_text":"5月3日讯，五一假期A股休市，港股主要指数开盘涨跌不一，恒指跌0.23%报28659点，国指跌0.19%报10805点，恒生科技指数涨0.02%报8314点。蒙牛乳业、龙湖集团跌逾1%，领跌恒指。盘面上，药品股、港口航运股表现强势，复星医药、东阳光药均高开逾2%；香港银行股、燃气股、蓝筹地产股、有色金属股普遍上扬，大型科技股波动较小，京东小幅高开，阿里巴巴、快手、小米平开；物业股低开明显，石油、光伏等大多走弱。区块链概念股上涨，欧科云链涨近14%，火币涨近5%，美图涨近3%。复星医药高开2.4%，瑞信将复星医药目标价上调至52港元；据报道，新冠疫苗“复必泰”可能于6-7月在内地获批。方正控股逆市高开14%，方正集团与中国平安、珠海华发等签署重整投资协议。京东集团涨0.07%，京东物流就拟议分拆向联交所递交聆讯后资料集。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"600196":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"02196":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"02833":0.9,"HHImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375315142,"gmtCreate":1619307848286,"gmtModify":1704722172617,"author":{"id":"3581772836193010","authorId":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","idStr":"3581772836193010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?‍♂️","listText":"?‍♂️","text":"?‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375315142","repostId":"1130451341","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130451341","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619413290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130451341?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 13:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The US dollar's massive monetary easing, global stimulus, and the strongest inflation have wiped out all living beings!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130451341","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的","content":"<p>At a conference in Israel in 1997, someone asked Friedman if he could summarize the essence of economics in one sentence. The prolific economics guru blurted out, \"There is no such thing as a free lunch. That is the whole of my economic theory.\"</p><p>In contrast, in the past few weeks, the dual waves of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in the United States have instantly shifted the attention of global markets from deflation to inflation, almost causing a bloodbath in the stock and bond markets. Last week, with Powell suddenly releasing hawkish signals in an interview, this feast is likely about to enter its second half.</p><p>Before everyone is truly bankrupt, someone must be prepared to pay the price. But how big is the order, and who will buy it?</p><p>As the United States gradually begins to buy global assets at rock-bottom prices, the US dollar has begun to flow back, and emerging markets have already taken the lead in setting off a wave of rate hike in order to withstand the shock. As the*of currency flows globally, it's time to reflect on former U.S. Treasury Secretary Connelly's words: The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem.</p><p>In this episode, we'll take a look at the ins and outs of this massive stimulus event in the United States. We will focus on three things:</p><p><b>First, why did the United States take such drastic measures when it launched unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus?</b></p><p><b>Second, could super-stimulus lead to a serious overheating of the U.S. economy?</b></p><p><b>Third, with the US introducing monetary easing and the world paying the price, how will this massive monetary easing end?</b></p><p><b>01. How intense is this round of stimulus from the United States?</b></p><p>How big is the fiscal stimulus? Following the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus package last April, the Trump administration introduced another $900 billion stimulus package at the end of the year. This year, Biden passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, accounting for 10% of the US GDP last year, and the latest $2.25 trillion in infrastructure spending has been officially announced in the blink of an eye. Excluding the last item that has not yet been officially released, in just one year, the total amount of fiscal stimulus has reached a record 5 trillion yuan. In a longitudinal comparison, it is a full six times the nearly 800 billion yuan stimulus provided by the Obama administration in the two years following the 2008 financial crisis. In horizontal comparison, this figure accounts for 25% of US GDP, a proportion far exceeding that of Germany (12%) and Japan (16%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62286730e1f021dfbeb1393d4e5fc201\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding monetary policy, how big is this round of quantitative easing? During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve spent six years using three rounds of quantitative easing, purchasing only a little over $3 trillion in assets. This time, however, it only took six months to easily reach this scale.</p><p>If the financial stimulus of 2008 was a shuriken in the left hand and a revolver in the right, this time it's a cannon firing two shots at once. But why is the US fiscal and monetary policy being ramped up to full capacity this time?</p><p>Let's look at the finances first. The latest passage of 1.9 trillion is very dramatic. This number far exceeded expectations, because when Biden initially proposed the plan, the Republican-backed stimulus figure was only over $600 billion, a difference of $1.3 trillion. Biden had previously claimed that the two parties should unite and cooperate, so everyone thought he would make a compromise, and the final stimulus package should only be around $900 billion.</p><p>Unexpectedly, Biden suddenly took a \"forceful\" approach, forcing through a plan called the \"budget reconciliation process\". Simply put, it significantly reduces the number of votes the Senate would normally need to pass a stimulus bill, requiring only a majority. Therefore, when the $1.9 trillion bill is voted on in the future, even if the Republicans unanimously oppose it, the Democrats, who hold the majority in the Senate, will be able to forcefully shake off the Republicans and push the bill forward on their own.</p><p>The question is, why did Biden suddenly disregard Republican opposition and rush to quickly seal the $1.9 trillion deal?</p><p>Because during the 2008 financial crisis, Obama's Democratic Party suffered heavily from fiscal stimulus.</p><p>Twelve years ago, it was precisely because of Republican opposition that the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus package was significantly scaled back, and the original $2 trillion stimulus package ultimately passed less than $800 billion.</p><p>However, it's important to understand that this small amount of money is far from enough to lead to a rapid economic recovery. Over the next two years, the US economy grew slowly, the job market recovery stagnated, Obama's popular approval rating plummeted, and he quickly lost the House of Representatives in the 2010 election, allowing the Republicans to regain control.</p><p>It can be said that in the last crisis, it was precisely because the Obama administration was not tough enough that not only caused the Democratic Party to lose power, but also kept the US economy mired in the quagmire for longer.</p><p>Biden, as Obama's deputy at the time, clearly remembers this lesson deeply. So after he came to power, he went all out and confronted them head-on, afraid of repeating the mistakes he made back then.</p><p>What about quantitative easing? Based on the above facts, the QE in 2009 was a \"second-best option\" made by the United States when fiscal policy was constrained by the Republican Party. Now that there is already a massive amount of stimulus, why is Powell still insisting on not exiting QE?</p><p>We believe there are roughly three reasons:</p><p>First, Powell never believed there would be truly serious inflationary pressures. As he said not long ago at a hearing of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, global deflation has lasted for more than 20 years. How could it get out of control in just one inflation?</p><p>Second, even with inflationary pressures, the United States does not have to bear the consequences of inflation alone due to the US dollar's reserve currency status. We'll get to that later.</p><p>Third, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about deflationary expectations than inflationary pressures.</p><p>Deflation is when the inflation rate drops below zero, and society as a whole is in an environment where prices continue to decline.</p><p>Once people have an expectation that prices will continue to fall, they will save what they want to buy for a cheaper time in the future. For example, if you want to buy a house, and the current price is 50,000 yuan per square meter, but you expect it to become 40,000 yuan per square meter in two years, then if conditions permit, it will definitely be more cost-effective to buy in two years. The same logic applies to businesses purchasing raw materials and making investments.</p><p>In this way, the desire to consume and invest is greatly reduced, and no matter how much money you have, it will be of no use. More than 60% of the US GDP comes from consumption. With insufficient demand, production naturally cannot increase, and the economy can only stagnate. Just look at Japan's \"lost 20 years\" to see how terrible the whole process is.</p><p>In the short term, QE is definitely a powerful medicine to alleviate deflationary expectations. It only needs to do one thing: push up asset prices, especially in the stock and housing markets, thereby creating the illusion of wealth and a thriving economy. Even if it doesn't translate into real cash flow, people may happily consume more, thereby stimulating production and economic recovery. This is entirely a psychological question, and it works especially well when coordinated with fiscal policy.</p><p>However, we should not confuse a bull market with a strong real economy. Is QE a short-sighted measure to quench thirst, and will it backfire on the economy in the future? That's a story for later; we'll talk about it below.</p><p><b>02. The US economy may be overheating.</b></p><p>As we just explained, the scale of this fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States is unprecedented. So what will happen to the US economy under such massive stimulus? The answer is that inflation is rising and the economy is overheating, and the overheating may be much more severe than the market expects. Because of the prolonged and large-scale quantitative easing (QE), inflation has unknowingly been given huge upside potential.</p><p>To understand the impact of long-term QE, we will first explain the entire transmission path of the central bank's monetary policy for macroeconomic regulation in the simplest way possible. Let's return to a \"prehistoric\" world without QE and see how the monetary policy system operates under normal circumstances; With QE now in place, how has the operating model changed?</p><p>We often say that the central bank scatters money, but the money is definitely not scattered directly on the people. Instead, it is first scattered to commercial banks and other financial institutions, forming the base money. There are many methods, including adjusting the rediscount rate and the reserve requirement ratio. One of them is the buying and selling of government bonds, which is most related to QE. When the central bank buys bonds, it pays a sum of money, which is essentially injecting a base currency into the financial system.</p><p>Next, banks either invest this money in the real economy, or lend it to businesses and families through loans to enable them to produce and consume, thereby promoting economic growth. Alternatively, if most businesses and families are unwilling to borrow money, the remaining money will remain in the form of savings within the banking system or flow into financial markets such as the stock market. On the one hand, the development of the real economy lacks funding, and on the other hand, the financial market may accumulate excessive funds, triggering a bubble.</p><p>In the world before QE, monetary policy followed the above path very smoothly, namely, the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve through conventional monetary policy could be well transmitted to businesses and residents. During an economic recession, a proactive fiscal policy stabilizes the confidence of businesses and residents, while the central bank lowers policy interest rates and provides liquidity to the banking industry. When commercial banks have money, residents and businesses are also encouraged by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus to actively borrow money to buy houses and invest.</p><p>Once the economy begins to recover, what the central bank needs to do is gradually raise policy interest rates and curb credit, thereby preventing inflation. As can be seen from the chart, textbooks on the three lines of base money, money supply, and bank credit generally rise and fall at the same time. In this process, long-term interest rates also decline and rebound along with the policy interest rate. The US and Europe before 2008, and Japan before 1990, were in this state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db62c0fd67426e30d8e887c264e2c1d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, QE broke this situation. As we just mentioned, after the real estate bubble burst in 2008, due to ineffective fiscal stimulus, the United States had to take a one-sided approach, using monetary policy QE to release a large amount of liquidity in an attempt to stimulate domestic demand, but it had little effect on the severely affected families and businesses. After collateral prices plummeted, people were not only unwilling to borrow money, but also had a large amount of debt waiting to be repaid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df372cd565af39ad4d6bcb81d7c6d0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a result, on the one hand, with the expansion of QE and the drop in interest rates to 0, liquidity in the United States reached an unprecedented level, and the proportion of base money in GDP rose from 6% in 2008 to 25%. On the other hand, people hold huge amounts of savings but do not spend them. The funds not only do not leave the banking industry in the form of loans, but also go back in the form of savings and loan repayments (Figure 1), causing the economy and inflation to remain stagnant (Figure 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c94b8f058459bc94057a57c4e4bcd\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4531164bb26df43688035a5cf421b70\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In other words, if the entire monetary system continues to operate according to the pre-2008 model, inflation in the United States should have risen to a very high level by now. If we compare the money sprayed by the central bank to water, the current price is like a sponge covered in a layer of rubber that is difficult to absorb water. Once the rubber is peeled off, the sponge will quickly absorb water and expand. So we can see what will happen once demand improves and people start borrowing again: bank credit and money supply could be several times higher than they are now, and prices could rise sharply, which would mean very high inflation.</p><p>Under this expectation, once the economy shows signs of recovery, high tensions over inflationary pressures will exacerbate market panic about liquidity fluctuations. Investors worry that the central bank will have to reduce its bond purchases or even sell long-term bonds, so they are also selling bonds to avoid risks. As a result, long-term interest rates in countries with QE will rise at a faster pace than without QE, further causing severe fluctuations in the real economy, stock markets, and commodity markets.</p><p>The longer QE lasts, the more serious these problems will undoubtedly become. During the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing in 2013, Koo Chao-ming, chief researcher at Nomura Securities, proposed a \"quantitative easing Trap\" model to discuss the extent of economic damage caused by prolonged quantitative easing.</p><p>Initially, the decline in long-term interest rates in QE countries was much greater than in non-QE countries, meaning that the economic recovery was subsequently faster (t1). However, as the economy recovered and monetary policy tightened, long-term interest rates rose rapidly, and some interest rate-sensitive industries faced declining demand, forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance again. After the economy recovered again, as the market refocused on the possibility of central banks absorbing excess reserves, long-term interest rates rose in a repeating cycle known as the \"QE Trap\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fcf876d04c9fa79632dabb02901fe9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, the decline in long-term interest rates in non-QE countries was gradual, which delayed the start of recovery (t2); But once the economy starts to improve, the pace of recovery will actually be faster due to lower interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c252a193b242e7b67bb52a022f673936\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We can also draw this conclusion from the seven years of experience of gradually normalizing monetary policy in the United States before the pandemic. The last round of QE in the United States was gradually withdrawn in 2013, but what will happen if it is not withdrawn? Will the economy be better? Maybe not.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve first started tapering its bond purchases, the inflation rate was only 1%. Although there were nine rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) began in October 2017, the inflation rate continued to rise slowly. The reason that deeply suppresses inflation and keeps it rising slowly is the same: the savings held by households and businesses have not been digested, and they have not borrowed money, so rising interest rates do not put pressure on them. This, in turn, suggests that even if interest rates remained low at the time, economic activity may have remained unmoved.</p><p>Moreover, due to insufficient demand in the real economy, continued QE may actually lead to a large amount of spare money entering the real estate and financial markets, triggering a thick asset bubble. In fact, U.S. commercial real estate prices are now 50% higher than their previous peak in 2007.</p><p>Importantly, given that this round of quantitative easing is much more rapid than during the financial crisis, Koo Chao-ming believes in a recent research report that the US economy has already stepped halfway into the \"quantitative easing Trap.\" Once the private sector resumes borrowing, soaring inflation and soaring long-term bond interest rates are imminent, at which point it will be necessary to significantly increase policy interest rates to suppress inflation. In a prehistoric world without QE in the late 1970s, the Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate sharply to 22% to curb inflation. What level is needed now?</p><p><b>03. The US introduced monetary easing, and the world paid the price. How will this massive monetary easing end?</b></p><p>We just discussed the impact of massive monetary easing on the US economy. Due to the existence of dollar hegemony, the influence of US economic policies is by no means limited to the United States itself. Through a series of transmission mechanisms, this round of economic stimulus in the United States has a far-reaching impact and is very likely to make the whole world pay for Americans.</p><p>Emerging markets are likely to pay the biggest price, as has always been the case, and this may be one of the reasons for the United States' reckless monetary easing.</p><p>In 2020, as the circulation of the US dollar, the global reserve currency, surged, countries began to ease monetary policy to combat inflation caused by the excessive issuance of currency by the United States, which in turn exported inflation to the world. This is directly reflected in the increase in housing prices in various countries. OECD data shows that housing prices rose in 89% of countries around the world last year, the highest percentage since 2000, with Turkey and Russia in particular seeing increases of more than 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c4ae79984d71e542068e5f4451b545\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, with the strengthening of US inflation expectations, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, and the misalignment of the recovery pace between the US and emerging market countries, the US dollar has begun to strengthen in stages and is showing a return trend, completely reversing the situation. Emerging markets are forced to repeat the old adage: Americans print money, and the whole world pays for it.</p><p>Since March, emerging market countries have collectively \"rushed\" to rate hike ahead of the Federal Reserve's actions. In the short week leading up to and around the US interest rate meeting in March, several emerging market countries experienced a wave of rate hike:</p><p>On March 17, the Central Bank of Brazil announced an increase in the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points to 2.75% (compared to an expected 50 basis points).</p><p>On March 18, the Central Bank of Türkiye announced that it would raise its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 19% (compared to the expected increase to 18%).</p><p>On March 19, the Central Bank of Russia announced a rate hike rate of 25 basis points to 4.50% (expected to remain at 4.25%).</p><p>Moreover, indicators from emerging countries such as India, Argentina, Malaysia, Thailand, and South Korea all show that market expectations for rate hike are increasing, with rate hike expected to occur at least once this year and the first half of next year.</p><p>The main reason driving rate hike in emerging market countries is certainly rising inflation. From a general analysis, inflationary pressures still originate from the supply side. On the one hand, the downstream consumer goods production capacity of these emerging market countries is already weak, and the impact of the pandemic has widened the supply and demand gap, which is directly reflected in pushing up commodity prices. On the other hand, food and transportation consumption account for more than 40-50% of these countries and they rely on imports and exports. Therefore, the rapid rise in global petroleum product and food prices has further increased the imported inflationary pressure on emerging market countries.</p><p>Chart: Inflation level reaches target policy area</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94ce07a7037fde2b973d9eb87b28c31\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These emerging market countries, which are highly open and dependent on foreign trade, can only passively accept the spillover of the economies and policies of developed countries to a large extent. However, compared to rising inflation, the economic recovery of these emerging countries is still in a relatively slow process, especially Brazil and Türkiye, where unemployment rates are high at over 10%, and the control of the pandemic is once again facing challenges.</p><p>Chart: Economic recovery will take time</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f81cda958ecf4d254726ed35cd77803\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, in order to prevent a vicious circle expectations of an excessively rapid return of the US dollar, currency depreciation, hyperinflation, domestic rate hike, falling asset prices, and exposure of foreign debt, emerging market countries had to take the lead in launching rate hike, firstly to curb bubbles and secondly to stabilize capital outflows.</p><p>Chart: The largest appreciation of currencies relative to the US dollar last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5087af222bd88b05f938b86843362cc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Countries with high external debt ratios and significant asset market gains may pay a greater price. Turkey's overnight lending rate has remained above 15% this year, making it difficult to curb international capital outflows. The resignation of the central bank governor following better-than-expected rate hike has further triggered a vicious circle expectations, causing asset prices to plummet and the currency to collapse. In terms of external debt, Chile and South Africa are next.</p><p>High inflation, especially in countries with high asset price increases, indicates that more capital is flowing into the virtual economy than into the recovery of the real economy, and there is also a significant risk of capital outflow. For example, Argentina and India. In these countries, rate hike is more about choosing the lesser of two evils, and there is not much independence in monetary policy. If there is a rapid outflow of capital, they will pay the price for last year's liquidity feast.</p><p>In the United States, as funds flow back and arbitrage trading between the US and Europe increases demand for US Treasury bonds, the upward pressure on US Treasury yields will actually ease.</p><p>Chart: The interest rate differential between Europe and the United States widens to the mean level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f074dd3e16aa39866470bd4c68767c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the dollar rises and falls, China, as the largest emerging market country, will withstand some shocks thanks to its domestic supply capacity, liquidity restraint, and currency independence. However, under the global storm, asset price pressures are unlikely to ease.</p><p>Perhaps money can exceed printing, but wealth cannot. When we look at the current state of global money from a more macro perspective, a deeper question is how to make good use of our policy tools, and how individuals can identify good assets to ensure that our wages are more stably preserved. By understanding the historical responsibility of the RMB and its value in keeping a low profile, we may be able to prepare for the upcoming risks.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US dollar's massive monetary easing, global stimulus, and the strongest inflation have wiped out all living beings!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US dollar's massive monetary easing, global stimulus, and the strongest inflation have wiped out all living beings!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 13:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At a conference in Israel in 1997, someone asked Friedman if he could summarize the essence of economics in one sentence. The prolific economics guru blurted out, \"There is no such thing as a free lunch. That is the whole of my economic theory.\"</p><p>In contrast, in the past few weeks, the dual waves of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in the United States have instantly shifted the attention of global markets from deflation to inflation, almost causing a bloodbath in the stock and bond markets. Last week, with Powell suddenly releasing hawkish signals in an interview, this feast is likely about to enter its second half.</p><p>Before everyone is truly bankrupt, someone must be prepared to pay the price. But how big is the order, and who will buy it?</p><p>As the United States gradually begins to buy global assets at rock-bottom prices, the US dollar has begun to flow back, and emerging markets have already taken the lead in setting off a wave of rate hike in order to withstand the shock. As the*of currency flows globally, it's time to reflect on former U.S. Treasury Secretary Connelly's words: The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem.</p><p>In this episode, we'll take a look at the ins and outs of this massive stimulus event in the United States. We will focus on three things:</p><p><b>First, why did the United States take such drastic measures when it launched unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus?</b></p><p><b>Second, could super-stimulus lead to a serious overheating of the U.S. economy?</b></p><p><b>Third, with the US introducing monetary easing and the world paying the price, how will this massive monetary easing end?</b></p><p><b>01. How intense is this round of stimulus from the United States?</b></p><p>How big is the fiscal stimulus? Following the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus package last April, the Trump administration introduced another $900 billion stimulus package at the end of the year. This year, Biden passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, accounting for 10% of the US GDP last year, and the latest $2.25 trillion in infrastructure spending has been officially announced in the blink of an eye. Excluding the last item that has not yet been officially released, in just one year, the total amount of fiscal stimulus has reached a record 5 trillion yuan. In a longitudinal comparison, it is a full six times the nearly 800 billion yuan stimulus provided by the Obama administration in the two years following the 2008 financial crisis. In horizontal comparison, this figure accounts for 25% of US GDP, a proportion far exceeding that of Germany (12%) and Japan (16%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62286730e1f021dfbeb1393d4e5fc201\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding monetary policy, how big is this round of quantitative easing? During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve spent six years using three rounds of quantitative easing, purchasing only a little over $3 trillion in assets. This time, however, it only took six months to easily reach this scale.</p><p>If the financial stimulus of 2008 was a shuriken in the left hand and a revolver in the right, this time it's a cannon firing two shots at once. But why is the US fiscal and monetary policy being ramped up to full capacity this time?</p><p>Let's look at the finances first. The latest passage of 1.9 trillion is very dramatic. This number far exceeded expectations, because when Biden initially proposed the plan, the Republican-backed stimulus figure was only over $600 billion, a difference of $1.3 trillion. Biden had previously claimed that the two parties should unite and cooperate, so everyone thought he would make a compromise, and the final stimulus package should only be around $900 billion.</p><p>Unexpectedly, Biden suddenly took a \"forceful\" approach, forcing through a plan called the \"budget reconciliation process\". Simply put, it significantly reduces the number of votes the Senate would normally need to pass a stimulus bill, requiring only a majority. Therefore, when the $1.9 trillion bill is voted on in the future, even if the Republicans unanimously oppose it, the Democrats, who hold the majority in the Senate, will be able to forcefully shake off the Republicans and push the bill forward on their own.</p><p>The question is, why did Biden suddenly disregard Republican opposition and rush to quickly seal the $1.9 trillion deal?</p><p>Because during the 2008 financial crisis, Obama's Democratic Party suffered heavily from fiscal stimulus.</p><p>Twelve years ago, it was precisely because of Republican opposition that the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus package was significantly scaled back, and the original $2 trillion stimulus package ultimately passed less than $800 billion.</p><p>However, it's important to understand that this small amount of money is far from enough to lead to a rapid economic recovery. Over the next two years, the US economy grew slowly, the job market recovery stagnated, Obama's popular approval rating plummeted, and he quickly lost the House of Representatives in the 2010 election, allowing the Republicans to regain control.</p><p>It can be said that in the last crisis, it was precisely because the Obama administration was not tough enough that not only caused the Democratic Party to lose power, but also kept the US economy mired in the quagmire for longer.</p><p>Biden, as Obama's deputy at the time, clearly remembers this lesson deeply. So after he came to power, he went all out and confronted them head-on, afraid of repeating the mistakes he made back then.</p><p>What about quantitative easing? Based on the above facts, the QE in 2009 was a \"second-best option\" made by the United States when fiscal policy was constrained by the Republican Party. Now that there is already a massive amount of stimulus, why is Powell still insisting on not exiting QE?</p><p>We believe there are roughly three reasons:</p><p>First, Powell never believed there would be truly serious inflationary pressures. As he said not long ago at a hearing of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, global deflation has lasted for more than 20 years. How could it get out of control in just one inflation?</p><p>Second, even with inflationary pressures, the United States does not have to bear the consequences of inflation alone due to the US dollar's reserve currency status. We'll get to that later.</p><p>Third, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about deflationary expectations than inflationary pressures.</p><p>Deflation is when the inflation rate drops below zero, and society as a whole is in an environment where prices continue to decline.</p><p>Once people have an expectation that prices will continue to fall, they will save what they want to buy for a cheaper time in the future. For example, if you want to buy a house, and the current price is 50,000 yuan per square meter, but you expect it to become 40,000 yuan per square meter in two years, then if conditions permit, it will definitely be more cost-effective to buy in two years. The same logic applies to businesses purchasing raw materials and making investments.</p><p>In this way, the desire to consume and invest is greatly reduced, and no matter how much money you have, it will be of no use. More than 60% of the US GDP comes from consumption. With insufficient demand, production naturally cannot increase, and the economy can only stagnate. Just look at Japan's \"lost 20 years\" to see how terrible the whole process is.</p><p>In the short term, QE is definitely a powerful medicine to alleviate deflationary expectations. It only needs to do one thing: push up asset prices, especially in the stock and housing markets, thereby creating the illusion of wealth and a thriving economy. Even if it doesn't translate into real cash flow, people may happily consume more, thereby stimulating production and economic recovery. This is entirely a psychological question, and it works especially well when coordinated with fiscal policy.</p><p>However, we should not confuse a bull market with a strong real economy. Is QE a short-sighted measure to quench thirst, and will it backfire on the economy in the future? That's a story for later; we'll talk about it below.</p><p><b>02. The US economy may be overheating.</b></p><p>As we just explained, the scale of this fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States is unprecedented. So what will happen to the US economy under such massive stimulus? The answer is that inflation is rising and the economy is overheating, and the overheating may be much more severe than the market expects. Because of the prolonged and large-scale quantitative easing (QE), inflation has unknowingly been given huge upside potential.</p><p>To understand the impact of long-term QE, we will first explain the entire transmission path of the central bank's monetary policy for macroeconomic regulation in the simplest way possible. Let's return to a \"prehistoric\" world without QE and see how the monetary policy system operates under normal circumstances; With QE now in place, how has the operating model changed?</p><p>We often say that the central bank scatters money, but the money is definitely not scattered directly on the people. Instead, it is first scattered to commercial banks and other financial institutions, forming the base money. There are many methods, including adjusting the rediscount rate and the reserve requirement ratio. One of them is the buying and selling of government bonds, which is most related to QE. When the central bank buys bonds, it pays a sum of money, which is essentially injecting a base currency into the financial system.</p><p>Next, banks either invest this money in the real economy, or lend it to businesses and families through loans to enable them to produce and consume, thereby promoting economic growth. Alternatively, if most businesses and families are unwilling to borrow money, the remaining money will remain in the form of savings within the banking system or flow into financial markets such as the stock market. On the one hand, the development of the real economy lacks funding, and on the other hand, the financial market may accumulate excessive funds, triggering a bubble.</p><p>In the world before QE, monetary policy followed the above path very smoothly, namely, the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve through conventional monetary policy could be well transmitted to businesses and residents. During an economic recession, a proactive fiscal policy stabilizes the confidence of businesses and residents, while the central bank lowers policy interest rates and provides liquidity to the banking industry. When commercial banks have money, residents and businesses are also encouraged by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus to actively borrow money to buy houses and invest.</p><p>Once the economy begins to recover, what the central bank needs to do is gradually raise policy interest rates and curb credit, thereby preventing inflation. As can be seen from the chart, textbooks on the three lines of base money, money supply, and bank credit generally rise and fall at the same time. In this process, long-term interest rates also decline and rebound along with the policy interest rate. The US and Europe before 2008, and Japan before 1990, were in this state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db62c0fd67426e30d8e887c264e2c1d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, QE broke this situation. As we just mentioned, after the real estate bubble burst in 2008, due to ineffective fiscal stimulus, the United States had to take a one-sided approach, using monetary policy QE to release a large amount of liquidity in an attempt to stimulate domestic demand, but it had little effect on the severely affected families and businesses. After collateral prices plummeted, people were not only unwilling to borrow money, but also had a large amount of debt waiting to be repaid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df372cd565af39ad4d6bcb81d7c6d0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a result, on the one hand, with the expansion of QE and the drop in interest rates to 0, liquidity in the United States reached an unprecedented level, and the proportion of base money in GDP rose from 6% in 2008 to 25%. On the other hand, people hold huge amounts of savings but do not spend them. The funds not only do not leave the banking industry in the form of loans, but also go back in the form of savings and loan repayments (Figure 1), causing the economy and inflation to remain stagnant (Figure 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c94b8f058459bc94057a57c4e4bcd\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4531164bb26df43688035a5cf421b70\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In other words, if the entire monetary system continues to operate according to the pre-2008 model, inflation in the United States should have risen to a very high level by now. If we compare the money sprayed by the central bank to water, the current price is like a sponge covered in a layer of rubber that is difficult to absorb water. Once the rubber is peeled off, the sponge will quickly absorb water and expand. So we can see what will happen once demand improves and people start borrowing again: bank credit and money supply could be several times higher than they are now, and prices could rise sharply, which would mean very high inflation.</p><p>Under this expectation, once the economy shows signs of recovery, high tensions over inflationary pressures will exacerbate market panic about liquidity fluctuations. Investors worry that the central bank will have to reduce its bond purchases or even sell long-term bonds, so they are also selling bonds to avoid risks. As a result, long-term interest rates in countries with QE will rise at a faster pace than without QE, further causing severe fluctuations in the real economy, stock markets, and commodity markets.</p><p>The longer QE lasts, the more serious these problems will undoubtedly become. During the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing in 2013, Koo Chao-ming, chief researcher at Nomura Securities, proposed a \"quantitative easing Trap\" model to discuss the extent of economic damage caused by prolonged quantitative easing.</p><p>Initially, the decline in long-term interest rates in QE countries was much greater than in non-QE countries, meaning that the economic recovery was subsequently faster (t1). However, as the economy recovered and monetary policy tightened, long-term interest rates rose rapidly, and some interest rate-sensitive industries faced declining demand, forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance again. After the economy recovered again, as the market refocused on the possibility of central banks absorbing excess reserves, long-term interest rates rose in a repeating cycle known as the \"QE Trap\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fcf876d04c9fa79632dabb02901fe9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, the decline in long-term interest rates in non-QE countries was gradual, which delayed the start of recovery (t2); But once the economy starts to improve, the pace of recovery will actually be faster due to lower interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c252a193b242e7b67bb52a022f673936\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We can also draw this conclusion from the seven years of experience of gradually normalizing monetary policy in the United States before the pandemic. The last round of QE in the United States was gradually withdrawn in 2013, but what will happen if it is not withdrawn? Will the economy be better? Maybe not.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve first started tapering its bond purchases, the inflation rate was only 1%. Although there were nine rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) began in October 2017, the inflation rate continued to rise slowly. The reason that deeply suppresses inflation and keeps it rising slowly is the same: the savings held by households and businesses have not been digested, and they have not borrowed money, so rising interest rates do not put pressure on them. This, in turn, suggests that even if interest rates remained low at the time, economic activity may have remained unmoved.</p><p>Moreover, due to insufficient demand in the real economy, continued QE may actually lead to a large amount of spare money entering the real estate and financial markets, triggering a thick asset bubble. In fact, U.S. commercial real estate prices are now 50% higher than their previous peak in 2007.</p><p>Importantly, given that this round of quantitative easing is much more rapid than during the financial crisis, Koo Chao-ming believes in a recent research report that the US economy has already stepped halfway into the \"quantitative easing Trap.\" Once the private sector resumes borrowing, soaring inflation and soaring long-term bond interest rates are imminent, at which point it will be necessary to significantly increase policy interest rates to suppress inflation. In a prehistoric world without QE in the late 1970s, the Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate sharply to 22% to curb inflation. What level is needed now?</p><p><b>03. The US introduced monetary easing, and the world paid the price. How will this massive monetary easing end?</b></p><p>We just discussed the impact of massive monetary easing on the US economy. Due to the existence of dollar hegemony, the influence of US economic policies is by no means limited to the United States itself. Through a series of transmission mechanisms, this round of economic stimulus in the United States has a far-reaching impact and is very likely to make the whole world pay for Americans.</p><p>Emerging markets are likely to pay the biggest price, as has always been the case, and this may be one of the reasons for the United States' reckless monetary easing.</p><p>In 2020, as the circulation of the US dollar, the global reserve currency, surged, countries began to ease monetary policy to combat inflation caused by the excessive issuance of currency by the United States, which in turn exported inflation to the world. This is directly reflected in the increase in housing prices in various countries. OECD data shows that housing prices rose in 89% of countries around the world last year, the highest percentage since 2000, with Turkey and Russia in particular seeing increases of more than 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c4ae79984d71e542068e5f4451b545\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, with the strengthening of US inflation expectations, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, and the misalignment of the recovery pace between the US and emerging market countries, the US dollar has begun to strengthen in stages and is showing a return trend, completely reversing the situation. Emerging markets are forced to repeat the old adage: Americans print money, and the whole world pays for it.</p><p>Since March, emerging market countries have collectively \"rushed\" to rate hike ahead of the Federal Reserve's actions. In the short week leading up to and around the US interest rate meeting in March, several emerging market countries experienced a wave of rate hike:</p><p>On March 17, the Central Bank of Brazil announced an increase in the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points to 2.75% (compared to an expected 50 basis points).</p><p>On March 18, the Central Bank of Türkiye announced that it would raise its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 19% (compared to the expected increase to 18%).</p><p>On March 19, the Central Bank of Russia announced a rate hike rate of 25 basis points to 4.50% (expected to remain at 4.25%).</p><p>Moreover, indicators from emerging countries such as India, Argentina, Malaysia, Thailand, and South Korea all show that market expectations for rate hike are increasing, with rate hike expected to occur at least once this year and the first half of next year.</p><p>The main reason driving rate hike in emerging market countries is certainly rising inflation. From a general analysis, inflationary pressures still originate from the supply side. On the one hand, the downstream consumer goods production capacity of these emerging market countries is already weak, and the impact of the pandemic has widened the supply and demand gap, which is directly reflected in pushing up commodity prices. On the other hand, food and transportation consumption account for more than 40-50% of these countries and they rely on imports and exports. Therefore, the rapid rise in global petroleum product and food prices has further increased the imported inflationary pressure on emerging market countries.</p><p>Chart: Inflation level reaches target policy area</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94ce07a7037fde2b973d9eb87b28c31\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These emerging market countries, which are highly open and dependent on foreign trade, can only passively accept the spillover of the economies and policies of developed countries to a large extent. However, compared to rising inflation, the economic recovery of these emerging countries is still in a relatively slow process, especially Brazil and Türkiye, where unemployment rates are high at over 10%, and the control of the pandemic is once again facing challenges.</p><p>Chart: Economic recovery will take time</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f81cda958ecf4d254726ed35cd77803\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, in order to prevent a vicious circle expectations of an excessively rapid return of the US dollar, currency depreciation, hyperinflation, domestic rate hike, falling asset prices, and exposure of foreign debt, emerging market countries had to take the lead in launching rate hike, firstly to curb bubbles and secondly to stabilize capital outflows.</p><p>Chart: The largest appreciation of currencies relative to the US dollar last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5087af222bd88b05f938b86843362cc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Countries with high external debt ratios and significant asset market gains may pay a greater price. Turkey's overnight lending rate has remained above 15% this year, making it difficult to curb international capital outflows. The resignation of the central bank governor following better-than-expected rate hike has further triggered a vicious circle expectations, causing asset prices to plummet and the currency to collapse. In terms of external debt, Chile and South Africa are next.</p><p>High inflation, especially in countries with high asset price increases, indicates that more capital is flowing into the virtual economy than into the recovery of the real economy, and there is also a significant risk of capital outflow. For example, Argentina and India. In these countries, rate hike is more about choosing the lesser of two evils, and there is not much independence in monetary policy. If there is a rapid outflow of capital, they will pay the price for last year's liquidity feast.</p><p>In the United States, as funds flow back and arbitrage trading between the US and Europe increases demand for US Treasury bonds, the upward pressure on US Treasury yields will actually ease.</p><p>Chart: The interest rate differential between Europe and the United States widens to the mean level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f074dd3e16aa39866470bd4c68767c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the dollar rises and falls, China, as the largest emerging market country, will withstand some shocks thanks to its domestic supply capacity, liquidity restraint, and currency independence. However, under the global storm, asset price pressures are unlikely to ease.</p><p>Perhaps money can exceed printing, but wealth cannot. When we look at the current state of global money from a more macro perspective, a deeper question is how to make good use of our policy tools, and how individuals can identify good assets to ensure that our wages are more stably preserved. By understanding the historical responsibility of the RMB and its value in keeping a low profile, we may be able to prepare for the upcoming risks.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f3lP37XC665lbZXQhGuNGA\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f3lP37XC665lbZXQhGuNGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130451341","content_text":"1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的双重浪潮，把全球市场的注意力瞬间从通缩转向通胀，几乎在股债市场掀起血雨腥风。而上周伴随鲍威尔在采访中突然开始释放鹰派信号，这场饕餮盛宴怕是要进入下半场了。真正酒阑人散之前，有人必须要做好买单的准备。只是，单有多大，又由谁来买？随着美国慢慢开始抄底全球资产，美元已经启动回流，新兴市场为了抵御冲击，早已经率先掀起了加息潮。货币的汪洋流向全球之际，是时候品一品美国前财长康纳利的话：美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题。本期我们就来盘一盘美国这场巨量刺激的来龙去脉。我们将着重探讨三件事:第一，美国推出史无前例的财政货币双刺激，为什么要下这么重的狠手？第二，超级刺激可能导致美国经济严重过热？第三，美国放水，全球买单，这场大放水又会以怎样的方式收场？01、美国这轮刺激有多猛财政刺激有多大？去年4月2.2万亿美元的财政刺激之后，特朗普政府年底又出台了一项9000亿美元的刺激；到了今年，拜登上来就通过了1.9万亿刺激法案，占到美国去年GDP的10%，转眼最新的2.25万亿基建又已官宣。不算还未正式出台的最后一项，短短一年时间，财政刺激总量已经达到了5万亿的天量，纵向对比，是08年金融危机之后两年奥巴马政府将近8000亿刺激的整整6倍；横向对比，这个数字占美国GDP的25%，这一比例远远超过德国（12%）和日本（16%）。而货币政策方面，这轮QE又有多大？2008年金融危机时，美联储耗时6年，用了三轮QE，一共也只购买了3万多亿美元资产，而这次QE只花了6个月，就轻轻松松达到了这一规模。如果08年的财货刺激是左手手里剑右手左轮手枪的话，这次就是两杆齐发的加农炮。但是为什么这次美国财政和货币政策两头都要狂风暴雨式地加足马力？先来看看财政。最新1.9万亿的通过非常戏剧化。这个数字首先是远远超过大家预期的，因为拜登提出这项计划的最初，共和党支持的刺激数字只有6000多亿，之间差了1.3万亿。而拜登之前又一直声称两党要团结合作，大家就认为他会做个折中，最后放水量应该也就在9000亿美元左右。但出人意料的是，拜登突然来了个“霸王硬上弓”式的操作，强行通过了一个叫作“预算调和程序”的方案。简单来说，它把参议院通过刺激法案原本所需要的票数大大降低，只需要过半数就能通过。于是未来就1.9万亿进行投票的时候，就算共和党一致反对，占参议院多数的民主党，也能强行甩开共和党，凭一己之力让法案得到推进。问题是，拜登为什么突然不顾共和党反对，急于让1.9万亿快速板上钉钉？因为2008年金融危机时，奥巴马的民主党就在财政刺激上吃过大亏。12年前，正是因为共和党反对，奥巴马政府的财政刺激方案大幅缩水，原本2万亿美元的刺激方案最终只通过了不到8000亿。但要知道，这点小钱远远无法令经济快速复苏，接下来两年美国经济增长缓慢，就业市场复苏陷入停滞，奥巴马的民众支持率直线下降，很快在2010年中选输掉了众院，被共和党重新夺回了控制权。可以说，上一轮危机中，正是由于奥巴马政府不够强硬，不仅导致民主党失势，还使得美国经济在泥潭中陷得更久。拜登作为奥巴马当时的副手，显然对这次教训刻骨铭心。所以自己上台后一不做二不休，来个硬碰硬，生怕重蹈当年覆辙。那么量化宽松呢？从上面的事实看来，09年的QE是在财政政策被共和党束缚住手脚的情况下，美国做出的“次优选择”。而如今既然已经有了天量刺激，为什么鲍威尔还要坚持迟迟不退出QE？我们认为，大致有以下三个原因：第一，鲍威尔始终不认为会有真正的严重通胀压力。像不久前他在美国众议院金融服务委员会听证会上所说，全球性通缩已持续20多年，现在短短一次通胀，怎么就会失控呢？第二，即便有通胀压力，由于美元的储备货币地位，通胀带来的后果并不需要美国独自承担。我们会在后面说到这一点。第三，比起通胀压力，美联储更担心的是通缩预期。所谓通缩，就是通货膨胀率降到零以下，整个社会处在一个物价持续、普遍下降的环境之中。一旦人们有了价格持续下跌的预期，就会把想买的东西留到未来更便宜的时候去买。比如你想买房，现在是5w一平米，但你预计过两年就变成4w一平米了，那在条件允许的情况下，一定是两年后买入更划得来。对企业购买原料、进行投资也是一样的逻辑。这样一来，消费和投资欲望就被大大降低，手里钱再多也无济于事。美国GDP超六成来自消费，需求不够，生产自然也上不去，经济只能停滞不前，整个过程有多可怕，看看日本“失去的20年”就知道。短期来看，QE对缓解通缩预期绝对是一剂猛药。它只需要做一件事，就是推高资产价格，尤其是股市和楼市价格，从而给人们营造一番手头富裕，经济也欣欣向荣的假象。即便并没有转化成真实的现金流，人们也可能开开心心地进行更多的消费，进而刺激生产和经济复苏。这完全是个心理学问题，在财政政策配合下尤其行得通。但是，切勿把牛市和实体经济走强混为一谈，QE是否是饮鸩止渴，未来会否对经济形成反噬？这是后话，我们会在下面讲到。02、美国经济可能过热刚才我们解释了，美国这次财政、货币刺激的规模史无前例。那么这样的巨额刺激下，美国经济会发生什么呢？答案就是通胀上升，经济过热，而且过热程度可能比市场预期要严重得多。因为长时间、大规模的QE，不知不觉给了通胀巨大的上行空间。为了了解长期QE的影响，下面，我们首先最简单地解释一下央行货币政策进行宏观调控的整个传导路径；再回到一个没有QE的“史前”世界里，看看正常情况下货币政策体系是怎么运转的；如今有了QE，运转模式又发生了怎样的变化。我们常说央行撒钱，但钱肯定不是直接撒在人民群众身上的，而是首先撒给商业银行等各个金融机构，构成基础货币。方法有很多种，包括调节再贴现率、调节存款准备金率，和QE最相关的买卖政府债券也是其中之一，央行买进债券的同时付出去一笔钱，实质就是向金融系统注入一笔基础货币。紧接着，各个银行要么把这些钱投入实体经济，也就是通过贷款的方式借给企业和家庭，让他们进行生产和消费，促进经济增长；要么，如果大多数企业和家庭都不愿意借钱，剩下的钱就会以储蓄的形式滞留在银行体系内部，或是流入股市等金融市场，则一方面实体经济发展缺少资金驱动，另一方面金融市场又可能积累过量资金引发泡沫。在QE前的世界，货币政策在上面一条道路上走得非常顺畅，即美联储通过常规货币政策提供的流动性，能很好地传到企业和居民手里。经济衰退时，一边积极的财政政策稳住企业和居民的信心，一边央行降低政策利率，同时给银行业提供流动性；商业银行一有钱，居民和企业也被低利率和财政刺激鼓舞着，积极借钱买房和投资。一旦经济开始复苏，央行所要做的就是逐步提高政策利率，抑制信贷，从而防止通胀。于是从图上可以看出，基础货币、货币供应、银行信贷三条线教科书一般地同起同落，在此过程中，长期利率也随政策利率下降和回升。2008年前的美欧，1990年前的日本就是处于这种状态。但是QE打破了这一局面。刚才我们介绍过，08年房地产泡沫破裂后，由于财政刺激不给力，美国不得不一条腿走路，用货币政策QE释放大量的流动性，试图刺激内需，却在受到重创的家庭和企业面前收效甚微。抵押物价格暴跌之后，人们不仅不愿意借钱，反而还有大量债务等着还。于是，一边是随着QE扩大、利率下降到0，美国流动性来到前所未有的水平，基础货币占GDP比重从08年的6%上升到25%；另一边，人们握着巨额储蓄却不花出去，资金不仅没有以贷款形式离开银行业，还以储蓄和还贷形式回去了（第一张图），使得经济和通胀迟迟上不来（第二张图）。也就是说，如果整个货币体系仍然按照08年以前的模式运行，现在美国的通胀应该已经上升到很高的水平了。如果把央行撒的钱比作水，现在的价格就像是裹了一层胶质、难以进水的海绵，一旦胶质被剥离掉，海绵就会迅速吸水进而膨胀。于是我们可以看到一旦需求改善，人们开始恢复借款会发生什么：银行信贷和货币供应量都可能比现在高出好几倍，物价也可能随之大幅度攀升，那将意味着非常高的通胀。在这种预期之下，一旦经济出现复苏迹象，对通胀压力的高度紧张，就将加剧市场对流动性波动的恐慌。投资者担心，央行到时候将不得不减少债券购买乃至卖出长期债券，于是也纷纷抛售债券来规避风险，从而，QE国家长期利率也会比没有QE时以更快的速度上行，进一步对实体经济和股市、商品市场造成严重波动。QE持续时间越长，这些问题无疑也会越严重。野村证券首席研究员辜朝明曾在2013年美联储第三轮QE期间，提出了一个“量化宽松陷阱”（QE Trap）模型，讨论了长时间QE对经济的损伤程度：最初，QE国长期利率降幅要比非QE国大得多，意味着随后经济复苏更快(t1)。但随着经济的回暖，货币政策收紧，长期利率迅速攀升，部分利率敏感行业又面临需求下降，迫使央行重新放松政策立场。经济再次复苏后，随着市场又重新关注央行吸收超额准备金的可能性，长期利率在一个所谓“QE Trap”的重复周期中上行。相比之下，非QE国长期利率下降是渐进的，这延迟了复苏的开始(t2)；但一旦经济开始好转，由于利率较低，复苏步伐实际会更快。从美国疫情前逐步货币政策正常化的7年经验当中，我们也可以推出这一结论。美国上一轮QE是在2013年逐步退出的，但如果不退会发生什么？经济会更好吗？也许不会。当年美联储刚开始缩减购债的时候，通胀率只有1%，之后虽然9次加息、2017年10月又开始了量化紧缩（QT），通胀率却仍然在慢慢上升。深压住通胀的和让通胀维持缓慢上行的是同一个原因，那就是家庭和企业手里的储蓄始终没有得到消化，没有借钱，利率升高也就对他们造不成压力。这反过来说明，即便当时利率继续保持低位，经济活动也可能无动于衷。不仅如此，由于实体经济需求不足，继续QE反而可能导致大量闲钱进入房地产和金融市场，激起厚厚的资产泡沫。事实上，美国商业地产价格目前已经比2007年的上一个峰值高出了50%。重要的是，鉴于本轮QE比金融危机时已经迅猛得多，辜朝明在最近发布的研报中认为，美国经济已经半只脚踏进“量化宽松陷阱”中了，私营部门一旦恢复借款，通胀飙高、长债利率飙升乃是一触即发，届时将需要大幅提高政策利率来压制通胀。在70年代末那个没有QE的史前世界，美联储把政策利率大幅提高到22%来抑制通胀，如今又需要怎样的水平呢？03、美国放水，全球买单，这场大放水又会以怎样的方式收场？刚才我们谈了超级大放水对美国经济的影响。由于美元霸权的存在，美国经济政策的影响力绝不限于美国国内，通过一系列传导机制，美国这轮经济刺激影响极为深远，很有可能让全球都为美国人买单。而其中付出最大代价的可能还是新兴市场，这在历来都是如此，可能也是美国肆无忌惮大放水的原因之一。2020年，随着作为全球储备货币的美元流通量激增，各国纷纷开启了放水之路，以抵抗美国超发货币所引发的通胀，美国借此将通胀输出到全球。这在各国的房价涨幅上就有直接体现，OECD数据显示，去年全球89%国家的房价都在上涨，这一比例为2000年以来最高，土耳其、俄罗斯尤其上涨超过20%。而如今随着美国通胀预期的增强，美债收益率大幅走高，以及美国与新兴市场国家复苏节奏的错位，美元开始阶段性走强，并呈现出回流态势，局面完全反转。新兴市场被迫再次响应那句老话：美国人印钞票，全世界来买单。3月以来，新兴市场国家集体“抢跑”，赶在美联储行动之前提前加息。美国3月的议息会议前后的短短一周中，多个新兴市场国家纷纷掀起加息潮：3月17日巴西央行宣布上调基准贷款利率75个基点至2.75%（预期50个基点）。3月18日土耳其央行宣布将关键利率上调200个基点至19%（预期上调至18%）。3月19日俄罗斯央行宣布加息25个基点至4.50%（预期维持4.25%）。不仅如此，印度、阿根廷、马来西亚、泰国、韩国等新兴国家的指标均显示，市场对于加息的预期正在增强，今年至明年上半年至少加息一次。推动新兴市场国家加息的主要原因肯定是通胀的上行。而通胀的压力从普遍的分析来看还是自于供给端。一方面这类新兴市场国家下游消费品端的生产能力本身就薄弱，疫情的冲击便使得供需缺口扩大，直接体现到推升商品价格上。另一方面，这些国家的食品与交通类消费占比都在40-50%之上，且依赖于进出口，因而全球石油制品和食品价格的快速上行便进一步增加了新兴市场国家的输入性通胀压力。图：通胀水平达到目标政策区域这些具有高开放性和外贸依赖的新兴市场国家，很大程度上，只能被动接受发达国家经济和政策的溢出。然而，相对于通胀的上行，这些新兴国家的经济修复还处于一个相对偏慢的过程中，尤其是巴西和土耳其，失业率高企10%以上，同时对疫情的控制也再度面临考验。图：经济修复尚需时日与此同时，为了防止出现美元过快回流—本币贬值—恶性通胀—本国加息—资产价格下跌—外债暴露的恶性循环预期，新兴市场国家也不得不率先启动加息，一来抑制泡沫，二来稳定资本流出。图：去年各国货币相对美元最大升值幅度而那些外债比例高和资产市场涨幅明显的国家，或会付出更大的代价。今年以来土耳其隔夜拆借利率高企于15%以上，依然难以抑制国际资本流出，超预期加息后央行行长下台更引发恶性循环预期，资产价格暴跌，汇率崩盘。从外债来看接下来是智利、南非等。通胀偏高，尤其是资产价格涨幅偏高的国家，显示资本更多进入虚拟经济体而非实体经济复苏，也存在较大的资本流出风险。比如阿根廷、印度。这些国家加息更多是两害权其轻的操作，也没有太多货币政策的独立性可言。一旦出现资本流出较快，他们将为去年的流动性盛宴付出代价。美国呢，随着资金回流，美欧套利交易增加美债需求，美债利率上行压力反倒会有所缓解。图：欧美利差水平走阔至均值水平美元潮起潮落，中国作为最大的新兴市场国家，得益于国内的供给能力、流动性克制和货币独立，将抵御部分冲击，但是在全球性的风暴之下，资产价格压力难言缓和。或许货币可以超印，但财富不能，当我们以一个更宏观的视角看待全球货币现状，一个更深刻的命题是，如何用好自己的政策工具，作为个人又如何甄别好的资产，让自己的劳动报酬获得更稳健的保值。理解手中人民币的历史责任和其韬光养晦的价值，我们或许能在即将到来的风险中有所准备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372521134,"gmtCreate":1619228400128,"gmtModify":1704721534148,"author":{"id":"3581772836193010","authorId":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","idStr":"3581772836193010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372521134","repostId":"1117124305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117124305","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619227102,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117124305?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-24 09:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The latest holdings of the social security fund have been revealed! The opportunity to copy homework has arrived.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117124305","media":"上海证券报","summary":"随着2021年一季度业绩披露渐入尾声，社保基金最新动向浮出水面。\n上证报资讯统计数据显示，截至4月23日，共有34家公司获得社保基金的青睐，其中不乏近期表现抢眼的大牛股。\n\n社保基金新增持股情况\n自2","content":"<p><div>As the first quarter 2021 earnings release draws to a close, the latest developments in the social security fund are coming to light. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities News, as of April 23, a total of 34 companies had been favored by the social security fund, including many recent top-performing stocks. Since July 2020, the stock price of Huamao Logistics has continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of more than 230%. In the first quarter of this year, Huamao Logistics' stock price increased by 38.43%, and its year-to-date increase was 60.82%. The social security fund portfolio 17041 has been newly added to the shareholder list of Huamao Logistics, holding its...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mNWcnzUIC8brgot4F6vRag\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The latest holdings of the social security fund have been revealed! The opportunity to copy homework has arrived.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe latest holdings of the social security fund have been revealed! The opportunity to copy homework has arrived.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-24 09:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>As the first quarter 2021 earnings release draws to a close, the latest developments in the social security fund are coming to light. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities News, as of April 23, a total of 34 companies had been favored by the social security fund, including many recent top-performing stocks. Since July 2020, the stock price of Huamao Logistics has continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of more than 230%. In the first quarter of this year, Huamao Logistics' stock price increased by 38.43%, and its year-to-date increase was 60.82%. The social security fund portfolio 17041 has been newly added to the shareholder list of Huamao Logistics, holding its...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mNWcnzUIC8brgot4F6vRag\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mNWcnzUIC8brgot4F6vRag\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35149960e6afd85c38dd82d128f4c23e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mNWcnzUIC8brgot4F6vRag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117124305","content_text":"随着2021年一季度业绩披露渐入尾声，社保基金最新动向浮出水面。\n上证报资讯统计数据显示，截至4月23日，共有34家公司获得社保基金的青睐，其中不乏近期表现抢眼的大牛股。\n\n社保基金新增持股情况\n自2020年7月份以来，华贸物流股价持续走高，至今累计涨幅已超过230%。今年一季度，华贸物流涨幅为38.43%，年初至今涨幅为60.82%。\n\n社保基金17041组合新进华贸物流股东榜，持有其1512.97万股股份，占总股本的1.16%，为第十大股东。\n截至一季度末，基本养老保险基金一二零五组合持有华贸物流3961.17万股股份，占总股本的3.03%，为第四大股东，较年初增持了1843.5万股股份。\n\n华贸物流股价上涨主要因为所在行业景气度提升。\n据悉，公司在国际航空货运市场经营多年，拥有较强的资源基础。2020年，疫情带来跨境电商出口行业的蓬勃生长，公司把握机遇，进一步发挥原有优势，扩大了其在跨境电商物流尤其是航空国际物流方面的优势。\n喜临门也获得社保基金青睐。\n截至一季度末，社保基金一零六组合新进喜临门股东榜，持有其539.76万股股份，占总股本的1.39%，为第九大股东。\n\n喜临门今年一季度实现营业收入12.50亿元，同比增长72.51%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润8448.69万元，同比增长255.55%。\n喜临门被视为床垫及软床行业龙头企业，目前国内该行业格局较为分散，喜临门的增长潜力被不少投资者所看重。或是受此影响，喜临门股价持续高涨，年初至今累计涨幅为47.88%。\n\n有些股票涨势喜人，有些在社保基金买入后却表现不佳。\n钢研高纳披露的2021年一季度显示，全国社保基金一零七组合进入公司前十大流通股股东榜，持股数量为234.92万股，占流通股的比例为0.55%。\n\n可在过去一段时间，钢研高纳股价表现却算不上抢眼，从年初高位至今已回落了超30%。\n\n从业绩来看，钢研高纳表现较好。一季度，公司实现营业收入3.5亿元，较上年同期增长43.28%；实现归属于上市公司股东净利润5560.32万元，较上年同期增长96.79%。\n在沪上某私募人士看来，抄社保基金作业要谨慎，短期股价涨跌不是核心要素，关键要看公司基本面。\n\n社保基金青睐股票今年表现情况","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":108179146,"gmtCreate":1620007407285,"gmtModify":1704337261520,"author":{"id":"3581772836193010","authorId":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","idStr":"3581772836193010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108179146","repostId":"1190906684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190906684","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620005114,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190906684?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 09:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Opening: The Hang Seng Index open low rose 0.23%, while Fosun Pharma rose over 2%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190906684","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"5月3日讯，五一假期A股休市，港股主要指数开盘涨跌不一，恒指跌0.23%报28659点，国指跌0.19%报10805点，恒生科技指数涨0.02%报8314点。蒙牛乳业、龙湖集团跌逾1%，领跌恒指。盘面","content":"<p>May 3 - A-shares were closed for the May Day holiday, and major Hong Kong stock indices opened mixed. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.23% to 28,659 points, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.19% to 10,805 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.02% to 8,314 points.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">Mengniu Dairy</a>Longfor Group fell more than 1%, leading the decline in the Hang Seng Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc7544aa636ba3214cfe8695c9e5b36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the market, pharmaceutical stocks and port and shipping stocks performed strongly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01558\">Dongyang Guangyao</a>Both opened more than 2% higher; Hong Kong bank stocks, gas stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks, and non-ferrous metals stocks generally rose, while large technology stocks experienced relatively little volatility.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Opened slightly higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Kuaishou and Xiaomi open flat; Property management stocks showed significant open low, while oil and photovoltaic stocks mostly weakened.</p><p>Blockchain concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01499\">OK Cloud Chain</a>It rose nearly 14%, Huobi rose nearly 5%, and Meitu rose nearly 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Credit Suisse opened 2.4% higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>The target price has been raised to HK$52; According to reports, the COVID-19 vaccine \"Fubitai\" may be approved in mainland China in June or July.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00418\">Founder Holdings</a>Founder Group opened 14% higher against the market trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">Ping An</a>Zhuhai Huafa and others signed a restructuring investment agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The group rose 0.07%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Logistics submitted a post-hearing information set to the Stock Exchange in relation to the proposed spin-off.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opening: The Hang Seng Index open low rose 0.23%, while Fosun Pharma rose over 2%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpening: The Hang Seng Index open low rose 0.23%, while Fosun Pharma rose over 2%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-03 09:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>May 3 - A-shares were closed for the May Day holiday, and major Hong Kong stock indices opened mixed. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.23% to 28,659 points, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.19% to 10,805 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.02% to 8,314 points.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02319\">Mengniu Dairy</a>Longfor Group fell more than 1%, leading the decline in the Hang Seng Index.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cc7544aa636ba3214cfe8695c9e5b36\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the market, pharmaceutical stocks and port and shipping stocks performed strongly.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01558\">Dongyang Guangyao</a>Both opened more than 2% higher; Hong Kong bank stocks, gas stocks, blue-chip real estate stocks, and non-ferrous metals stocks generally rose, while large technology stocks experienced relatively little volatility.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Opened slightly higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Kuaishou and Xiaomi open flat; Property management stocks showed significant open low, while oil and photovoltaic stocks mostly weakened.</p><p>Blockchain concept stocks rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01499\">OK Cloud Chain</a>It rose nearly 14%, Huobi rose nearly 5%, and Meitu rose nearly 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02196\">Fosun Pharma</a>Credit Suisse opened 2.4% higher.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>The target price has been raised to HK$52; According to reports, the COVID-19 vaccine \"Fubitai\" may be approved in mainland China in June or July.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00418\">Founder Holdings</a>Founder Group opened 14% higher against the market trend.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601318\">Ping An</a>Zhuhai Huafa and others signed a restructuring investment agreement.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>The group rose 0.07%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Logistics submitted a post-hearing information set to the Stock Exchange in relation to the proposed spin-off.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"513600":"恒生指数ETF南方","600196":"复星医药","HSI":"恒生指数","02196":"复星医药","02833":"恒指ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190906684","content_text":"5月3日讯，五一假期A股休市，港股主要指数开盘涨跌不一，恒指跌0.23%报28659点，国指跌0.19%报10805点，恒生科技指数涨0.02%报8314点。蒙牛乳业、龙湖集团跌逾1%，领跌恒指。盘面上，药品股、港口航运股表现强势，复星医药、东阳光药均高开逾2%；香港银行股、燃气股、蓝筹地产股、有色金属股普遍上扬，大型科技股波动较小，京东小幅高开，阿里巴巴、快手、小米平开；物业股低开明显，石油、光伏等大多走弱。区块链概念股上涨，欧科云链涨近14%，火币涨近5%，美图涨近3%。复星医药高开2.4%，瑞信将复星医药目标价上调至52港元；据报道，新冠疫苗“复必泰”可能于6-7月在内地获批。方正控股逆市高开14%，方正集团与中国平安、珠海华发等签署重整投资协议。京东集团涨0.07%，京东物流就拟议分拆向联交所递交聆讯后资料集。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513600":0.9,"600196":0.9,"MHImain":0.9,"02196":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"MCHmain":0.9,"HSImain":0.9,"02833":0.9,"HHImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102465865,"gmtCreate":1620232535057,"gmtModify":1704340591389,"author":{"id":"3581772836193010","authorId":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","idStr":"3581772836193010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/102465865","repostId":"2133256915","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106091363,"gmtCreate":1620061983552,"gmtModify":1704338103342,"author":{"id":"3581772836193010","authorId":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","idStr":"3581772836193010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106091363","repostId":"1170908014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170908014","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618906754,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1170908014?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-20 16:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170908014","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，","content":"<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: A-shares will be closed for three days on May Day, while Hong Kong and US stocks will trade as usual.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-20 16:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The May Day holiday is just around the corner, and it's worth mentioning that this year's May Day holiday will continue for five consecutive days. The stock market arrangements for the May Day holiday are also a focus of attention for investors. Let's take a look at how many days the stock market will be closed for the May Day holiday in 2021.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dcfc9f46149ed58e89371cfb512c504\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>A-shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>US stocks:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>UK stocks:</b></p><p>May 3rd (Monday) is Bank holiday, a traditional British holiday, and the UK stock market will be closed for one day.</p><p><b>Singapore Market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Australian market:</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong</b></p><p>It will be closed from May 1st (Saturday) to May 5th (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6th (Thursday).</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>It will be closed from April 29 (Thursday) to May 5 (Wednesday), and will reopen as usual from May 6 (Thursday).</p><p>Wishing all our most beautiful workers a happy, peaceful, and joyful May Day!<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/703fdb4d8b073167b0b526575917e6b9","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170908014","content_text":"五一小长假即将要来临了，值得一提的是，今年五一劳动节继续连休五天。关于五一股市安排方面，也是投资者们关注的焦点，下面一起来看看2021年五一股市休市几天？A股：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）休市，5月6日（周四）起照常开市。港股：照常交易。美股：照常交易。英股：5月3日（周一）为英国传统节日Bank holiday，英股休市一日新加坡市场：照常交易。澳大利亚市场：照常交易。沪股通、深股通：5月1日（周六）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。港股通：4月29日（周四）至5月5日（周三）关闭，5月6日（周四）起照常开通。祝各位最美劳动者五一节日快乐，平安喜乐！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375315142,"gmtCreate":1619307848286,"gmtModify":1704722172617,"author":{"id":"3581772836193010","authorId":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","idStr":"3581772836193010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?‍♂️","listText":"?‍♂️","text":"?‍♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/375315142","repostId":"1130451341","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130451341","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619413290,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130451341?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-26 13:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The US dollar's massive monetary easing, global stimulus, and the strongest inflation have wiped out all living beings!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130451341","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的","content":"<p>At a conference in Israel in 1997, someone asked Friedman if he could summarize the essence of economics in one sentence. The prolific economics guru blurted out, \"There is no such thing as a free lunch. That is the whole of my economic theory.\"</p><p>In contrast, in the past few weeks, the dual waves of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in the United States have instantly shifted the attention of global markets from deflation to inflation, almost causing a bloodbath in the stock and bond markets. Last week, with Powell suddenly releasing hawkish signals in an interview, this feast is likely about to enter its second half.</p><p>Before everyone is truly bankrupt, someone must be prepared to pay the price. But how big is the order, and who will buy it?</p><p>As the United States gradually begins to buy global assets at rock-bottom prices, the US dollar has begun to flow back, and emerging markets have already taken the lead in setting off a wave of rate hike in order to withstand the shock. As the*of currency flows globally, it's time to reflect on former U.S. Treasury Secretary Connelly's words: The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem.</p><p>In this episode, we'll take a look at the ins and outs of this massive stimulus event in the United States. We will focus on three things:</p><p><b>First, why did the United States take such drastic measures when it launched unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus?</b></p><p><b>Second, could super-stimulus lead to a serious overheating of the U.S. economy?</b></p><p><b>Third, with the US introducing monetary easing and the world paying the price, how will this massive monetary easing end?</b></p><p><b>01. How intense is this round of stimulus from the United States?</b></p><p>How big is the fiscal stimulus? Following the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus package last April, the Trump administration introduced another $900 billion stimulus package at the end of the year. This year, Biden passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, accounting for 10% of the US GDP last year, and the latest $2.25 trillion in infrastructure spending has been officially announced in the blink of an eye. Excluding the last item that has not yet been officially released, in just one year, the total amount of fiscal stimulus has reached a record 5 trillion yuan. In a longitudinal comparison, it is a full six times the nearly 800 billion yuan stimulus provided by the Obama administration in the two years following the 2008 financial crisis. In horizontal comparison, this figure accounts for 25% of US GDP, a proportion far exceeding that of Germany (12%) and Japan (16%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62286730e1f021dfbeb1393d4e5fc201\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding monetary policy, how big is this round of quantitative easing? During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve spent six years using three rounds of quantitative easing, purchasing only a little over $3 trillion in assets. This time, however, it only took six months to easily reach this scale.</p><p>If the financial stimulus of 2008 was a shuriken in the left hand and a revolver in the right, this time it's a cannon firing two shots at once. But why is the US fiscal and monetary policy being ramped up to full capacity this time?</p><p>Let's look at the finances first. The latest passage of 1.9 trillion is very dramatic. This number far exceeded expectations, because when Biden initially proposed the plan, the Republican-backed stimulus figure was only over $600 billion, a difference of $1.3 trillion. Biden had previously claimed that the two parties should unite and cooperate, so everyone thought he would make a compromise, and the final stimulus package should only be around $900 billion.</p><p>Unexpectedly, Biden suddenly took a \"forceful\" approach, forcing through a plan called the \"budget reconciliation process\". Simply put, it significantly reduces the number of votes the Senate would normally need to pass a stimulus bill, requiring only a majority. Therefore, when the $1.9 trillion bill is voted on in the future, even if the Republicans unanimously oppose it, the Democrats, who hold the majority in the Senate, will be able to forcefully shake off the Republicans and push the bill forward on their own.</p><p>The question is, why did Biden suddenly disregard Republican opposition and rush to quickly seal the $1.9 trillion deal?</p><p>Because during the 2008 financial crisis, Obama's Democratic Party suffered heavily from fiscal stimulus.</p><p>Twelve years ago, it was precisely because of Republican opposition that the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus package was significantly scaled back, and the original $2 trillion stimulus package ultimately passed less than $800 billion.</p><p>However, it's important to understand that this small amount of money is far from enough to lead to a rapid economic recovery. Over the next two years, the US economy grew slowly, the job market recovery stagnated, Obama's popular approval rating plummeted, and he quickly lost the House of Representatives in the 2010 election, allowing the Republicans to regain control.</p><p>It can be said that in the last crisis, it was precisely because the Obama administration was not tough enough that not only caused the Democratic Party to lose power, but also kept the US economy mired in the quagmire for longer.</p><p>Biden, as Obama's deputy at the time, clearly remembers this lesson deeply. So after he came to power, he went all out and confronted them head-on, afraid of repeating the mistakes he made back then.</p><p>What about quantitative easing? Based on the above facts, the QE in 2009 was a \"second-best option\" made by the United States when fiscal policy was constrained by the Republican Party. Now that there is already a massive amount of stimulus, why is Powell still insisting on not exiting QE?</p><p>We believe there are roughly three reasons:</p><p>First, Powell never believed there would be truly serious inflationary pressures. As he said not long ago at a hearing of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, global deflation has lasted for more than 20 years. How could it get out of control in just one inflation?</p><p>Second, even with inflationary pressures, the United States does not have to bear the consequences of inflation alone due to the US dollar's reserve currency status. We'll get to that later.</p><p>Third, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about deflationary expectations than inflationary pressures.</p><p>Deflation is when the inflation rate drops below zero, and society as a whole is in an environment where prices continue to decline.</p><p>Once people have an expectation that prices will continue to fall, they will save what they want to buy for a cheaper time in the future. For example, if you want to buy a house, and the current price is 50,000 yuan per square meter, but you expect it to become 40,000 yuan per square meter in two years, then if conditions permit, it will definitely be more cost-effective to buy in two years. The same logic applies to businesses purchasing raw materials and making investments.</p><p>In this way, the desire to consume and invest is greatly reduced, and no matter how much money you have, it will be of no use. More than 60% of the US GDP comes from consumption. With insufficient demand, production naturally cannot increase, and the economy can only stagnate. Just look at Japan's \"lost 20 years\" to see how terrible the whole process is.</p><p>In the short term, QE is definitely a powerful medicine to alleviate deflationary expectations. It only needs to do one thing: push up asset prices, especially in the stock and housing markets, thereby creating the illusion of wealth and a thriving economy. Even if it doesn't translate into real cash flow, people may happily consume more, thereby stimulating production and economic recovery. This is entirely a psychological question, and it works especially well when coordinated with fiscal policy.</p><p>However, we should not confuse a bull market with a strong real economy. Is QE a short-sighted measure to quench thirst, and will it backfire on the economy in the future? That's a story for later; we'll talk about it below.</p><p><b>02. The US economy may be overheating.</b></p><p>As we just explained, the scale of this fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States is unprecedented. So what will happen to the US economy under such massive stimulus? The answer is that inflation is rising and the economy is overheating, and the overheating may be much more severe than the market expects. Because of the prolonged and large-scale quantitative easing (QE), inflation has unknowingly been given huge upside potential.</p><p>To understand the impact of long-term QE, we will first explain the entire transmission path of the central bank's monetary policy for macroeconomic regulation in the simplest way possible. Let's return to a \"prehistoric\" world without QE and see how the monetary policy system operates under normal circumstances; With QE now in place, how has the operating model changed?</p><p>We often say that the central bank scatters money, but the money is definitely not scattered directly on the people. Instead, it is first scattered to commercial banks and other financial institutions, forming the base money. There are many methods, including adjusting the rediscount rate and the reserve requirement ratio. One of them is the buying and selling of government bonds, which is most related to QE. When the central bank buys bonds, it pays a sum of money, which is essentially injecting a base currency into the financial system.</p><p>Next, banks either invest this money in the real economy, or lend it to businesses and families through loans to enable them to produce and consume, thereby promoting economic growth. Alternatively, if most businesses and families are unwilling to borrow money, the remaining money will remain in the form of savings within the banking system or flow into financial markets such as the stock market. On the one hand, the development of the real economy lacks funding, and on the other hand, the financial market may accumulate excessive funds, triggering a bubble.</p><p>In the world before QE, monetary policy followed the above path very smoothly, namely, the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve through conventional monetary policy could be well transmitted to businesses and residents. During an economic recession, a proactive fiscal policy stabilizes the confidence of businesses and residents, while the central bank lowers policy interest rates and provides liquidity to the banking industry. When commercial banks have money, residents and businesses are also encouraged by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus to actively borrow money to buy houses and invest.</p><p>Once the economy begins to recover, what the central bank needs to do is gradually raise policy interest rates and curb credit, thereby preventing inflation. As can be seen from the chart, textbooks on the three lines of base money, money supply, and bank credit generally rise and fall at the same time. In this process, long-term interest rates also decline and rebound along with the policy interest rate. The US and Europe before 2008, and Japan before 1990, were in this state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db62c0fd67426e30d8e887c264e2c1d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, QE broke this situation. As we just mentioned, after the real estate bubble burst in 2008, due to ineffective fiscal stimulus, the United States had to take a one-sided approach, using monetary policy QE to release a large amount of liquidity in an attempt to stimulate domestic demand, but it had little effect on the severely affected families and businesses. After collateral prices plummeted, people were not only unwilling to borrow money, but also had a large amount of debt waiting to be repaid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df372cd565af39ad4d6bcb81d7c6d0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a result, on the one hand, with the expansion of QE and the drop in interest rates to 0, liquidity in the United States reached an unprecedented level, and the proportion of base money in GDP rose from 6% in 2008 to 25%. On the other hand, people hold huge amounts of savings but do not spend them. The funds not only do not leave the banking industry in the form of loans, but also go back in the form of savings and loan repayments (Figure 1), causing the economy and inflation to remain stagnant (Figure 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c94b8f058459bc94057a57c4e4bcd\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4531164bb26df43688035a5cf421b70\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In other words, if the entire monetary system continues to operate according to the pre-2008 model, inflation in the United States should have risen to a very high level by now. If we compare the money sprayed by the central bank to water, the current price is like a sponge covered in a layer of rubber that is difficult to absorb water. Once the rubber is peeled off, the sponge will quickly absorb water and expand. So we can see what will happen once demand improves and people start borrowing again: bank credit and money supply could be several times higher than they are now, and prices could rise sharply, which would mean very high inflation.</p><p>Under this expectation, once the economy shows signs of recovery, high tensions over inflationary pressures will exacerbate market panic about liquidity fluctuations. Investors worry that the central bank will have to reduce its bond purchases or even sell long-term bonds, so they are also selling bonds to avoid risks. As a result, long-term interest rates in countries with QE will rise at a faster pace than without QE, further causing severe fluctuations in the real economy, stock markets, and commodity markets.</p><p>The longer QE lasts, the more serious these problems will undoubtedly become. During the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing in 2013, Koo Chao-ming, chief researcher at Nomura Securities, proposed a \"quantitative easing Trap\" model to discuss the extent of economic damage caused by prolonged quantitative easing.</p><p>Initially, the decline in long-term interest rates in QE countries was much greater than in non-QE countries, meaning that the economic recovery was subsequently faster (t1). However, as the economy recovered and monetary policy tightened, long-term interest rates rose rapidly, and some interest rate-sensitive industries faced declining demand, forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance again. After the economy recovered again, as the market refocused on the possibility of central banks absorbing excess reserves, long-term interest rates rose in a repeating cycle known as the \"QE Trap\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fcf876d04c9fa79632dabb02901fe9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, the decline in long-term interest rates in non-QE countries was gradual, which delayed the start of recovery (t2); But once the economy starts to improve, the pace of recovery will actually be faster due to lower interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c252a193b242e7b67bb52a022f673936\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We can also draw this conclusion from the seven years of experience of gradually normalizing monetary policy in the United States before the pandemic. The last round of QE in the United States was gradually withdrawn in 2013, but what will happen if it is not withdrawn? Will the economy be better? Maybe not.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve first started tapering its bond purchases, the inflation rate was only 1%. Although there were nine rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) began in October 2017, the inflation rate continued to rise slowly. The reason that deeply suppresses inflation and keeps it rising slowly is the same: the savings held by households and businesses have not been digested, and they have not borrowed money, so rising interest rates do not put pressure on them. This, in turn, suggests that even if interest rates remained low at the time, economic activity may have remained unmoved.</p><p>Moreover, due to insufficient demand in the real economy, continued QE may actually lead to a large amount of spare money entering the real estate and financial markets, triggering a thick asset bubble. In fact, U.S. commercial real estate prices are now 50% higher than their previous peak in 2007.</p><p>Importantly, given that this round of quantitative easing is much more rapid than during the financial crisis, Koo Chao-ming believes in a recent research report that the US economy has already stepped halfway into the \"quantitative easing Trap.\" Once the private sector resumes borrowing, soaring inflation and soaring long-term bond interest rates are imminent, at which point it will be necessary to significantly increase policy interest rates to suppress inflation. In a prehistoric world without QE in the late 1970s, the Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate sharply to 22% to curb inflation. What level is needed now?</p><p><b>03. The US introduced monetary easing, and the world paid the price. How will this massive monetary easing end?</b></p><p>We just discussed the impact of massive monetary easing on the US economy. Due to the existence of dollar hegemony, the influence of US economic policies is by no means limited to the United States itself. Through a series of transmission mechanisms, this round of economic stimulus in the United States has a far-reaching impact and is very likely to make the whole world pay for Americans.</p><p>Emerging markets are likely to pay the biggest price, as has always been the case, and this may be one of the reasons for the United States' reckless monetary easing.</p><p>In 2020, as the circulation of the US dollar, the global reserve currency, surged, countries began to ease monetary policy to combat inflation caused by the excessive issuance of currency by the United States, which in turn exported inflation to the world. This is directly reflected in the increase in housing prices in various countries. OECD data shows that housing prices rose in 89% of countries around the world last year, the highest percentage since 2000, with Turkey and Russia in particular seeing increases of more than 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c4ae79984d71e542068e5f4451b545\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, with the strengthening of US inflation expectations, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, and the misalignment of the recovery pace between the US and emerging market countries, the US dollar has begun to strengthen in stages and is showing a return trend, completely reversing the situation. Emerging markets are forced to repeat the old adage: Americans print money, and the whole world pays for it.</p><p>Since March, emerging market countries have collectively \"rushed\" to rate hike ahead of the Federal Reserve's actions. In the short week leading up to and around the US interest rate meeting in March, several emerging market countries experienced a wave of rate hike:</p><p>On March 17, the Central Bank of Brazil announced an increase in the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points to 2.75% (compared to an expected 50 basis points).</p><p>On March 18, the Central Bank of Türkiye announced that it would raise its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 19% (compared to the expected increase to 18%).</p><p>On March 19, the Central Bank of Russia announced a rate hike rate of 25 basis points to 4.50% (expected to remain at 4.25%).</p><p>Moreover, indicators from emerging countries such as India, Argentina, Malaysia, Thailand, and South Korea all show that market expectations for rate hike are increasing, with rate hike expected to occur at least once this year and the first half of next year.</p><p>The main reason driving rate hike in emerging market countries is certainly rising inflation. From a general analysis, inflationary pressures still originate from the supply side. On the one hand, the downstream consumer goods production capacity of these emerging market countries is already weak, and the impact of the pandemic has widened the supply and demand gap, which is directly reflected in pushing up commodity prices. On the other hand, food and transportation consumption account for more than 40-50% of these countries and they rely on imports and exports. Therefore, the rapid rise in global petroleum product and food prices has further increased the imported inflationary pressure on emerging market countries.</p><p>Chart: Inflation level reaches target policy area</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94ce07a7037fde2b973d9eb87b28c31\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These emerging market countries, which are highly open and dependent on foreign trade, can only passively accept the spillover of the economies and policies of developed countries to a large extent. However, compared to rising inflation, the economic recovery of these emerging countries is still in a relatively slow process, especially Brazil and Türkiye, where unemployment rates are high at over 10%, and the control of the pandemic is once again facing challenges.</p><p>Chart: Economic recovery will take time</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f81cda958ecf4d254726ed35cd77803\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, in order to prevent a vicious circle expectations of an excessively rapid return of the US dollar, currency depreciation, hyperinflation, domestic rate hike, falling asset prices, and exposure of foreign debt, emerging market countries had to take the lead in launching rate hike, firstly to curb bubbles and secondly to stabilize capital outflows.</p><p>Chart: The largest appreciation of currencies relative to the US dollar last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5087af222bd88b05f938b86843362cc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Countries with high external debt ratios and significant asset market gains may pay a greater price. Turkey's overnight lending rate has remained above 15% this year, making it difficult to curb international capital outflows. The resignation of the central bank governor following better-than-expected rate hike has further triggered a vicious circle expectations, causing asset prices to plummet and the currency to collapse. In terms of external debt, Chile and South Africa are next.</p><p>High inflation, especially in countries with high asset price increases, indicates that more capital is flowing into the virtual economy than into the recovery of the real economy, and there is also a significant risk of capital outflow. For example, Argentina and India. In these countries, rate hike is more about choosing the lesser of two evils, and there is not much independence in monetary policy. If there is a rapid outflow of capital, they will pay the price for last year's liquidity feast.</p><p>In the United States, as funds flow back and arbitrage trading between the US and Europe increases demand for US Treasury bonds, the upward pressure on US Treasury yields will actually ease.</p><p>Chart: The interest rate differential between Europe and the United States widens to the mean level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f074dd3e16aa39866470bd4c68767c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the dollar rises and falls, China, as the largest emerging market country, will withstand some shocks thanks to its domestic supply capacity, liquidity restraint, and currency independence. However, under the global storm, asset price pressures are unlikely to ease.</p><p>Perhaps money can exceed printing, but wealth cannot. When we look at the current state of global money from a more macro perspective, a deeper question is how to make good use of our policy tools, and how individuals can identify good assets to ensure that our wages are more stably preserved. By understanding the historical responsibility of the RMB and its value in keeping a low profile, we may be able to prepare for the upcoming risks.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The US dollar's massive monetary easing, global stimulus, and the strongest inflation have wiped out all living beings!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe US dollar's massive monetary easing, global stimulus, and the strongest inflation have wiped out all living beings!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 13:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At a conference in Israel in 1997, someone asked Friedman if he could summarize the essence of economics in one sentence. The prolific economics guru blurted out, \"There is no such thing as a free lunch. That is the whole of my economic theory.\"</p><p>In contrast, in the past few weeks, the dual waves of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing in the United States have instantly shifted the attention of global markets from deflation to inflation, almost causing a bloodbath in the stock and bond markets. Last week, with Powell suddenly releasing hawkish signals in an interview, this feast is likely about to enter its second half.</p><p>Before everyone is truly bankrupt, someone must be prepared to pay the price. But how big is the order, and who will buy it?</p><p>As the United States gradually begins to buy global assets at rock-bottom prices, the US dollar has begun to flow back, and emerging markets have already taken the lead in setting off a wave of rate hike in order to withstand the shock. As the*of currency flows globally, it's time to reflect on former U.S. Treasury Secretary Connelly's words: The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem.</p><p>In this episode, we'll take a look at the ins and outs of this massive stimulus event in the United States. We will focus on three things:</p><p><b>First, why did the United States take such drastic measures when it launched unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus?</b></p><p><b>Second, could super-stimulus lead to a serious overheating of the U.S. economy?</b></p><p><b>Third, with the US introducing monetary easing and the world paying the price, how will this massive monetary easing end?</b></p><p><b>01. How intense is this round of stimulus from the United States?</b></p><p>How big is the fiscal stimulus? Following the $2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus package last April, the Trump administration introduced another $900 billion stimulus package at the end of the year. This year, Biden passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill, accounting for 10% of the US GDP last year, and the latest $2.25 trillion in infrastructure spending has been officially announced in the blink of an eye. Excluding the last item that has not yet been officially released, in just one year, the total amount of fiscal stimulus has reached a record 5 trillion yuan. In a longitudinal comparison, it is a full six times the nearly 800 billion yuan stimulus provided by the Obama administration in the two years following the 2008 financial crisis. In horizontal comparison, this figure accounts for 25% of US GDP, a proportion far exceeding that of Germany (12%) and Japan (16%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62286730e1f021dfbeb1393d4e5fc201\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"235\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Regarding monetary policy, how big is this round of quantitative easing? During the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve spent six years using three rounds of quantitative easing, purchasing only a little over $3 trillion in assets. This time, however, it only took six months to easily reach this scale.</p><p>If the financial stimulus of 2008 was a shuriken in the left hand and a revolver in the right, this time it's a cannon firing two shots at once. But why is the US fiscal and monetary policy being ramped up to full capacity this time?</p><p>Let's look at the finances first. The latest passage of 1.9 trillion is very dramatic. This number far exceeded expectations, because when Biden initially proposed the plan, the Republican-backed stimulus figure was only over $600 billion, a difference of $1.3 trillion. Biden had previously claimed that the two parties should unite and cooperate, so everyone thought he would make a compromise, and the final stimulus package should only be around $900 billion.</p><p>Unexpectedly, Biden suddenly took a \"forceful\" approach, forcing through a plan called the \"budget reconciliation process\". Simply put, it significantly reduces the number of votes the Senate would normally need to pass a stimulus bill, requiring only a majority. Therefore, when the $1.9 trillion bill is voted on in the future, even if the Republicans unanimously oppose it, the Democrats, who hold the majority in the Senate, will be able to forcefully shake off the Republicans and push the bill forward on their own.</p><p>The question is, why did Biden suddenly disregard Republican opposition and rush to quickly seal the $1.9 trillion deal?</p><p>Because during the 2008 financial crisis, Obama's Democratic Party suffered heavily from fiscal stimulus.</p><p>Twelve years ago, it was precisely because of Republican opposition that the Obama administration's fiscal stimulus package was significantly scaled back, and the original $2 trillion stimulus package ultimately passed less than $800 billion.</p><p>However, it's important to understand that this small amount of money is far from enough to lead to a rapid economic recovery. Over the next two years, the US economy grew slowly, the job market recovery stagnated, Obama's popular approval rating plummeted, and he quickly lost the House of Representatives in the 2010 election, allowing the Republicans to regain control.</p><p>It can be said that in the last crisis, it was precisely because the Obama administration was not tough enough that not only caused the Democratic Party to lose power, but also kept the US economy mired in the quagmire for longer.</p><p>Biden, as Obama's deputy at the time, clearly remembers this lesson deeply. So after he came to power, he went all out and confronted them head-on, afraid of repeating the mistakes he made back then.</p><p>What about quantitative easing? Based on the above facts, the QE in 2009 was a \"second-best option\" made by the United States when fiscal policy was constrained by the Republican Party. Now that there is already a massive amount of stimulus, why is Powell still insisting on not exiting QE?</p><p>We believe there are roughly three reasons:</p><p>First, Powell never believed there would be truly serious inflationary pressures. As he said not long ago at a hearing of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee, global deflation has lasted for more than 20 years. How could it get out of control in just one inflation?</p><p>Second, even with inflationary pressures, the United States does not have to bear the consequences of inflation alone due to the US dollar's reserve currency status. We'll get to that later.</p><p>Third, the Federal Reserve is more concerned about deflationary expectations than inflationary pressures.</p><p>Deflation is when the inflation rate drops below zero, and society as a whole is in an environment where prices continue to decline.</p><p>Once people have an expectation that prices will continue to fall, they will save what they want to buy for a cheaper time in the future. For example, if you want to buy a house, and the current price is 50,000 yuan per square meter, but you expect it to become 40,000 yuan per square meter in two years, then if conditions permit, it will definitely be more cost-effective to buy in two years. The same logic applies to businesses purchasing raw materials and making investments.</p><p>In this way, the desire to consume and invest is greatly reduced, and no matter how much money you have, it will be of no use. More than 60% of the US GDP comes from consumption. With insufficient demand, production naturally cannot increase, and the economy can only stagnate. Just look at Japan's \"lost 20 years\" to see how terrible the whole process is.</p><p>In the short term, QE is definitely a powerful medicine to alleviate deflationary expectations. It only needs to do one thing: push up asset prices, especially in the stock and housing markets, thereby creating the illusion of wealth and a thriving economy. Even if it doesn't translate into real cash flow, people may happily consume more, thereby stimulating production and economic recovery. This is entirely a psychological question, and it works especially well when coordinated with fiscal policy.</p><p>However, we should not confuse a bull market with a strong real economy. Is QE a short-sighted measure to quench thirst, and will it backfire on the economy in the future? That's a story for later; we'll talk about it below.</p><p><b>02. The US economy may be overheating.</b></p><p>As we just explained, the scale of this fiscal and monetary stimulus in the United States is unprecedented. So what will happen to the US economy under such massive stimulus? The answer is that inflation is rising and the economy is overheating, and the overheating may be much more severe than the market expects. Because of the prolonged and large-scale quantitative easing (QE), inflation has unknowingly been given huge upside potential.</p><p>To understand the impact of long-term QE, we will first explain the entire transmission path of the central bank's monetary policy for macroeconomic regulation in the simplest way possible. Let's return to a \"prehistoric\" world without QE and see how the monetary policy system operates under normal circumstances; With QE now in place, how has the operating model changed?</p><p>We often say that the central bank scatters money, but the money is definitely not scattered directly on the people. Instead, it is first scattered to commercial banks and other financial institutions, forming the base money. There are many methods, including adjusting the rediscount rate and the reserve requirement ratio. One of them is the buying and selling of government bonds, which is most related to QE. When the central bank buys bonds, it pays a sum of money, which is essentially injecting a base currency into the financial system.</p><p>Next, banks either invest this money in the real economy, or lend it to businesses and families through loans to enable them to produce and consume, thereby promoting economic growth. Alternatively, if most businesses and families are unwilling to borrow money, the remaining money will remain in the form of savings within the banking system or flow into financial markets such as the stock market. On the one hand, the development of the real economy lacks funding, and on the other hand, the financial market may accumulate excessive funds, triggering a bubble.</p><p>In the world before QE, monetary policy followed the above path very smoothly, namely, the liquidity provided by the Federal Reserve through conventional monetary policy could be well transmitted to businesses and residents. During an economic recession, a proactive fiscal policy stabilizes the confidence of businesses and residents, while the central bank lowers policy interest rates and provides liquidity to the banking industry. When commercial banks have money, residents and businesses are also encouraged by low interest rates and fiscal stimulus to actively borrow money to buy houses and invest.</p><p>Once the economy begins to recover, what the central bank needs to do is gradually raise policy interest rates and curb credit, thereby preventing inflation. As can be seen from the chart, textbooks on the three lines of base money, money supply, and bank credit generally rise and fall at the same time. In this process, long-term interest rates also decline and rebound along with the policy interest rate. The US and Europe before 2008, and Japan before 1990, were in this state.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5db62c0fd67426e30d8e887c264e2c1d\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"205\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, QE broke this situation. As we just mentioned, after the real estate bubble burst in 2008, due to ineffective fiscal stimulus, the United States had to take a one-sided approach, using monetary policy QE to release a large amount of liquidity in an attempt to stimulate domestic demand, but it had little effect on the severely affected families and businesses. After collateral prices plummeted, people were not only unwilling to borrow money, but also had a large amount of debt waiting to be repaid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5df372cd565af39ad4d6bcb81d7c6d0\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As a result, on the one hand, with the expansion of QE and the drop in interest rates to 0, liquidity in the United States reached an unprecedented level, and the proportion of base money in GDP rose from 6% in 2008 to 25%. On the other hand, people hold huge amounts of savings but do not spend them. The funds not only do not leave the banking industry in the form of loans, but also go back in the form of savings and loan repayments (Figure 1), causing the economy and inflation to remain stagnant (Figure 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/519c94b8f058459bc94057a57c4e4bcd\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4531164bb26df43688035a5cf421b70\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In other words, if the entire monetary system continues to operate according to the pre-2008 model, inflation in the United States should have risen to a very high level by now. If we compare the money sprayed by the central bank to water, the current price is like a sponge covered in a layer of rubber that is difficult to absorb water. Once the rubber is peeled off, the sponge will quickly absorb water and expand. So we can see what will happen once demand improves and people start borrowing again: bank credit and money supply could be several times higher than they are now, and prices could rise sharply, which would mean very high inflation.</p><p>Under this expectation, once the economy shows signs of recovery, high tensions over inflationary pressures will exacerbate market panic about liquidity fluctuations. Investors worry that the central bank will have to reduce its bond purchases or even sell long-term bonds, so they are also selling bonds to avoid risks. As a result, long-term interest rates in countries with QE will rise at a faster pace than without QE, further causing severe fluctuations in the real economy, stock markets, and commodity markets.</p><p>The longer QE lasts, the more serious these problems will undoubtedly become. During the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing in 2013, Koo Chao-ming, chief researcher at Nomura Securities, proposed a \"quantitative easing Trap\" model to discuss the extent of economic damage caused by prolonged quantitative easing.</p><p>Initially, the decline in long-term interest rates in QE countries was much greater than in non-QE countries, meaning that the economic recovery was subsequently faster (t1). However, as the economy recovered and monetary policy tightened, long-term interest rates rose rapidly, and some interest rate-sensitive industries faced declining demand, forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance again. After the economy recovered again, as the market refocused on the possibility of central banks absorbing excess reserves, long-term interest rates rose in a repeating cycle known as the \"QE Trap\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95fcf876d04c9fa79632dabb02901fe9\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In contrast, the decline in long-term interest rates in non-QE countries was gradual, which delayed the start of recovery (t2); But once the economy starts to improve, the pace of recovery will actually be faster due to lower interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c252a193b242e7b67bb52a022f673936\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>We can also draw this conclusion from the seven years of experience of gradually normalizing monetary policy in the United States before the pandemic. The last round of QE in the United States was gradually withdrawn in 2013, but what will happen if it is not withdrawn? Will the economy be better? Maybe not.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve first started tapering its bond purchases, the inflation rate was only 1%. Although there were nine rate hike and quantitative tightening (QT) began in October 2017, the inflation rate continued to rise slowly. The reason that deeply suppresses inflation and keeps it rising slowly is the same: the savings held by households and businesses have not been digested, and they have not borrowed money, so rising interest rates do not put pressure on them. This, in turn, suggests that even if interest rates remained low at the time, economic activity may have remained unmoved.</p><p>Moreover, due to insufficient demand in the real economy, continued QE may actually lead to a large amount of spare money entering the real estate and financial markets, triggering a thick asset bubble. In fact, U.S. commercial real estate prices are now 50% higher than their previous peak in 2007.</p><p>Importantly, given that this round of quantitative easing is much more rapid than during the financial crisis, Koo Chao-ming believes in a recent research report that the US economy has already stepped halfway into the \"quantitative easing Trap.\" Once the private sector resumes borrowing, soaring inflation and soaring long-term bond interest rates are imminent, at which point it will be necessary to significantly increase policy interest rates to suppress inflation. In a prehistoric world without QE in the late 1970s, the Federal Reserve raised its policy interest rate sharply to 22% to curb inflation. What level is needed now?</p><p><b>03. The US introduced monetary easing, and the world paid the price. How will this massive monetary easing end?</b></p><p>We just discussed the impact of massive monetary easing on the US economy. Due to the existence of dollar hegemony, the influence of US economic policies is by no means limited to the United States itself. Through a series of transmission mechanisms, this round of economic stimulus in the United States has a far-reaching impact and is very likely to make the whole world pay for Americans.</p><p>Emerging markets are likely to pay the biggest price, as has always been the case, and this may be one of the reasons for the United States' reckless monetary easing.</p><p>In 2020, as the circulation of the US dollar, the global reserve currency, surged, countries began to ease monetary policy to combat inflation caused by the excessive issuance of currency by the United States, which in turn exported inflation to the world. This is directly reflected in the increase in housing prices in various countries. OECD data shows that housing prices rose in 89% of countries around the world last year, the highest percentage since 2000, with Turkey and Russia in particular seeing increases of more than 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c4ae79984d71e542068e5f4451b545\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, with the strengthening of US inflation expectations, the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, and the misalignment of the recovery pace between the US and emerging market countries, the US dollar has begun to strengthen in stages and is showing a return trend, completely reversing the situation. Emerging markets are forced to repeat the old adage: Americans print money, and the whole world pays for it.</p><p>Since March, emerging market countries have collectively \"rushed\" to rate hike ahead of the Federal Reserve's actions. In the short week leading up to and around the US interest rate meeting in March, several emerging market countries experienced a wave of rate hike:</p><p>On March 17, the Central Bank of Brazil announced an increase in the benchmark lending rate by 75 basis points to 2.75% (compared to an expected 50 basis points).</p><p>On March 18, the Central Bank of Türkiye announced that it would raise its key interest rate by 200 basis points to 19% (compared to the expected increase to 18%).</p><p>On March 19, the Central Bank of Russia announced a rate hike rate of 25 basis points to 4.50% (expected to remain at 4.25%).</p><p>Moreover, indicators from emerging countries such as India, Argentina, Malaysia, Thailand, and South Korea all show that market expectations for rate hike are increasing, with rate hike expected to occur at least once this year and the first half of next year.</p><p>The main reason driving rate hike in emerging market countries is certainly rising inflation. From a general analysis, inflationary pressures still originate from the supply side. On the one hand, the downstream consumer goods production capacity of these emerging market countries is already weak, and the impact of the pandemic has widened the supply and demand gap, which is directly reflected in pushing up commodity prices. On the other hand, food and transportation consumption account for more than 40-50% of these countries and they rely on imports and exports. Therefore, the rapid rise in global petroleum product and food prices has further increased the imported inflationary pressure on emerging market countries.</p><p>Chart: Inflation level reaches target policy area</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94ce07a7037fde2b973d9eb87b28c31\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>These emerging market countries, which are highly open and dependent on foreign trade, can only passively accept the spillover of the economies and policies of developed countries to a large extent. However, compared to rising inflation, the economic recovery of these emerging countries is still in a relatively slow process, especially Brazil and Türkiye, where unemployment rates are high at over 10%, and the control of the pandemic is once again facing challenges.</p><p>Chart: Economic recovery will take time</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f81cda958ecf4d254726ed35cd77803\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At the same time, in order to prevent a vicious circle expectations of an excessively rapid return of the US dollar, currency depreciation, hyperinflation, domestic rate hike, falling asset prices, and exposure of foreign debt, emerging market countries had to take the lead in launching rate hike, firstly to curb bubbles and secondly to stabilize capital outflows.</p><p>Chart: The largest appreciation of currencies relative to the US dollar last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5087af222bd88b05f938b86843362cc\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Countries with high external debt ratios and significant asset market gains may pay a greater price. Turkey's overnight lending rate has remained above 15% this year, making it difficult to curb international capital outflows. The resignation of the central bank governor following better-than-expected rate hike has further triggered a vicious circle expectations, causing asset prices to plummet and the currency to collapse. In terms of external debt, Chile and South Africa are next.</p><p>High inflation, especially in countries with high asset price increases, indicates that more capital is flowing into the virtual economy than into the recovery of the real economy, and there is also a significant risk of capital outflow. For example, Argentina and India. In these countries, rate hike is more about choosing the lesser of two evils, and there is not much independence in monetary policy. If there is a rapid outflow of capital, they will pay the price for last year's liquidity feast.</p><p>In the United States, as funds flow back and arbitrage trading between the US and Europe increases demand for US Treasury bonds, the upward pressure on US Treasury yields will actually ease.</p><p>Chart: The interest rate differential between Europe and the United States widens to the mean level</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f074dd3e16aa39866470bd4c68767c\" tg-width=\"553\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As the dollar rises and falls, China, as the largest emerging market country, will withstand some shocks thanks to its domestic supply capacity, liquidity restraint, and currency independence. However, under the global storm, asset price pressures are unlikely to ease.</p><p>Perhaps money can exceed printing, but wealth cannot. When we look at the current state of global money from a more macro perspective, a deeper question is how to make good use of our policy tools, and how individuals can identify good assets to ensure that our wages are more stably preserved. By understanding the historical responsibility of the RMB and its value in keeping a low profile, we may be able to prepare for the upcoming risks.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f3lP37XC665lbZXQhGuNGA\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/f3lP37XC665lbZXQhGuNGA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1130451341","content_text":"1997年以色列的一场大会上，有人问弗里德曼，能不能一句话概括出经济学的精义，这位著作等身的经济学大师脱口而出，天下没有免费的午餐，这就是我经济理论的全部。反观当前，过去几周，美国财政刺激和货币宽松的双重浪潮，把全球市场的注意力瞬间从通缩转向通胀，几乎在股债市场掀起血雨腥风。而上周伴随鲍威尔在采访中突然开始释放鹰派信号，这场饕餮盛宴怕是要进入下半场了。真正酒阑人散之前，有人必须要做好买单的准备。只是，单有多大，又由谁来买？随着美国慢慢开始抄底全球资产，美元已经启动回流，新兴市场为了抵御冲击，早已经率先掀起了加息潮。货币的汪洋流向全球之际，是时候品一品美国前财长康纳利的话：美元是我们的货币，却是你们的问题。本期我们就来盘一盘美国这场巨量刺激的来龙去脉。我们将着重探讨三件事:第一，美国推出史无前例的财政货币双刺激，为什么要下这么重的狠手？第二，超级刺激可能导致美国经济严重过热？第三，美国放水，全球买单，这场大放水又会以怎样的方式收场？01、美国这轮刺激有多猛财政刺激有多大？去年4月2.2万亿美元的财政刺激之后，特朗普政府年底又出台了一项9000亿美元的刺激；到了今年，拜登上来就通过了1.9万亿刺激法案，占到美国去年GDP的10%，转眼最新的2.25万亿基建又已官宣。不算还未正式出台的最后一项，短短一年时间，财政刺激总量已经达到了5万亿的天量，纵向对比，是08年金融危机之后两年奥巴马政府将近8000亿刺激的整整6倍；横向对比，这个数字占美国GDP的25%，这一比例远远超过德国（12%）和日本（16%）。而货币政策方面，这轮QE又有多大？2008年金融危机时，美联储耗时6年，用了三轮QE，一共也只购买了3万多亿美元资产，而这次QE只花了6个月，就轻轻松松达到了这一规模。如果08年的财货刺激是左手手里剑右手左轮手枪的话，这次就是两杆齐发的加农炮。但是为什么这次美国财政和货币政策两头都要狂风暴雨式地加足马力？先来看看财政。最新1.9万亿的通过非常戏剧化。这个数字首先是远远超过大家预期的，因为拜登提出这项计划的最初，共和党支持的刺激数字只有6000多亿，之间差了1.3万亿。而拜登之前又一直声称两党要团结合作，大家就认为他会做个折中，最后放水量应该也就在9000亿美元左右。但出人意料的是，拜登突然来了个“霸王硬上弓”式的操作，强行通过了一个叫作“预算调和程序”的方案。简单来说，它把参议院通过刺激法案原本所需要的票数大大降低，只需要过半数就能通过。于是未来就1.9万亿进行投票的时候，就算共和党一致反对，占参议院多数的民主党，也能强行甩开共和党，凭一己之力让法案得到推进。问题是，拜登为什么突然不顾共和党反对，急于让1.9万亿快速板上钉钉？因为2008年金融危机时，奥巴马的民主党就在财政刺激上吃过大亏。12年前，正是因为共和党反对，奥巴马政府的财政刺激方案大幅缩水，原本2万亿美元的刺激方案最终只通过了不到8000亿。但要知道，这点小钱远远无法令经济快速复苏，接下来两年美国经济增长缓慢，就业市场复苏陷入停滞，奥巴马的民众支持率直线下降，很快在2010年中选输掉了众院，被共和党重新夺回了控制权。可以说，上一轮危机中，正是由于奥巴马政府不够强硬，不仅导致民主党失势，还使得美国经济在泥潭中陷得更久。拜登作为奥巴马当时的副手，显然对这次教训刻骨铭心。所以自己上台后一不做二不休，来个硬碰硬，生怕重蹈当年覆辙。那么量化宽松呢？从上面的事实看来，09年的QE是在财政政策被共和党束缚住手脚的情况下，美国做出的“次优选择”。而如今既然已经有了天量刺激，为什么鲍威尔还要坚持迟迟不退出QE？我们认为，大致有以下三个原因：第一，鲍威尔始终不认为会有真正的严重通胀压力。像不久前他在美国众议院金融服务委员会听证会上所说，全球性通缩已持续20多年，现在短短一次通胀，怎么就会失控呢？第二，即便有通胀压力，由于美元的储备货币地位，通胀带来的后果并不需要美国独自承担。我们会在后面说到这一点。第三，比起通胀压力，美联储更担心的是通缩预期。所谓通缩，就是通货膨胀率降到零以下，整个社会处在一个物价持续、普遍下降的环境之中。一旦人们有了价格持续下跌的预期，就会把想买的东西留到未来更便宜的时候去买。比如你想买房，现在是5w一平米，但你预计过两年就变成4w一平米了，那在条件允许的情况下，一定是两年后买入更划得来。对企业购买原料、进行投资也是一样的逻辑。这样一来，消费和投资欲望就被大大降低，手里钱再多也无济于事。美国GDP超六成来自消费，需求不够，生产自然也上不去，经济只能停滞不前，整个过程有多可怕，看看日本“失去的20年”就知道。短期来看，QE对缓解通缩预期绝对是一剂猛药。它只需要做一件事，就是推高资产价格，尤其是股市和楼市价格，从而给人们营造一番手头富裕，经济也欣欣向荣的假象。即便并没有转化成真实的现金流，人们也可能开开心心地进行更多的消费，进而刺激生产和经济复苏。这完全是个心理学问题，在财政政策配合下尤其行得通。但是，切勿把牛市和实体经济走强混为一谈，QE是否是饮鸩止渴，未来会否对经济形成反噬？这是后话，我们会在下面讲到。02、美国经济可能过热刚才我们解释了，美国这次财政、货币刺激的规模史无前例。那么这样的巨额刺激下，美国经济会发生什么呢？答案就是通胀上升，经济过热，而且过热程度可能比市场预期要严重得多。因为长时间、大规模的QE，不知不觉给了通胀巨大的上行空间。为了了解长期QE的影响，下面，我们首先最简单地解释一下央行货币政策进行宏观调控的整个传导路径；再回到一个没有QE的“史前”世界里，看看正常情况下货币政策体系是怎么运转的；如今有了QE，运转模式又发生了怎样的变化。我们常说央行撒钱，但钱肯定不是直接撒在人民群众身上的，而是首先撒给商业银行等各个金融机构，构成基础货币。方法有很多种，包括调节再贴现率、调节存款准备金率，和QE最相关的买卖政府债券也是其中之一，央行买进债券的同时付出去一笔钱，实质就是向金融系统注入一笔基础货币。紧接着，各个银行要么把这些钱投入实体经济，也就是通过贷款的方式借给企业和家庭，让他们进行生产和消费，促进经济增长；要么，如果大多数企业和家庭都不愿意借钱，剩下的钱就会以储蓄的形式滞留在银行体系内部，或是流入股市等金融市场，则一方面实体经济发展缺少资金驱动，另一方面金融市场又可能积累过量资金引发泡沫。在QE前的世界，货币政策在上面一条道路上走得非常顺畅，即美联储通过常规货币政策提供的流动性，能很好地传到企业和居民手里。经济衰退时，一边积极的财政政策稳住企业和居民的信心，一边央行降低政策利率，同时给银行业提供流动性；商业银行一有钱，居民和企业也被低利率和财政刺激鼓舞着，积极借钱买房和投资。一旦经济开始复苏，央行所要做的就是逐步提高政策利率，抑制信贷，从而防止通胀。于是从图上可以看出，基础货币、货币供应、银行信贷三条线教科书一般地同起同落，在此过程中，长期利率也随政策利率下降和回升。2008年前的美欧，1990年前的日本就是处于这种状态。但是QE打破了这一局面。刚才我们介绍过，08年房地产泡沫破裂后，由于财政刺激不给力，美国不得不一条腿走路，用货币政策QE释放大量的流动性，试图刺激内需，却在受到重创的家庭和企业面前收效甚微。抵押物价格暴跌之后，人们不仅不愿意借钱，反而还有大量债务等着还。于是，一边是随着QE扩大、利率下降到0，美国流动性来到前所未有的水平，基础货币占GDP比重从08年的6%上升到25%；另一边，人们握着巨额储蓄却不花出去，资金不仅没有以贷款形式离开银行业，还以储蓄和还贷形式回去了（第一张图），使得经济和通胀迟迟上不来（第二张图）。也就是说，如果整个货币体系仍然按照08年以前的模式运行，现在美国的通胀应该已经上升到很高的水平了。如果把央行撒的钱比作水，现在的价格就像是裹了一层胶质、难以进水的海绵，一旦胶质被剥离掉，海绵就会迅速吸水进而膨胀。于是我们可以看到一旦需求改善，人们开始恢复借款会发生什么：银行信贷和货币供应量都可能比现在高出好几倍，物价也可能随之大幅度攀升，那将意味着非常高的通胀。在这种预期之下，一旦经济出现复苏迹象，对通胀压力的高度紧张，就将加剧市场对流动性波动的恐慌。投资者担心，央行到时候将不得不减少债券购买乃至卖出长期债券，于是也纷纷抛售债券来规避风险，从而，QE国家长期利率也会比没有QE时以更快的速度上行，进一步对实体经济和股市、商品市场造成严重波动。QE持续时间越长，这些问题无疑也会越严重。野村证券首席研究员辜朝明曾在2013年美联储第三轮QE期间，提出了一个“量化宽松陷阱”（QE Trap）模型，讨论了长时间QE对经济的损伤程度：最初，QE国长期利率降幅要比非QE国大得多，意味着随后经济复苏更快(t1)。但随着经济的回暖，货币政策收紧，长期利率迅速攀升，部分利率敏感行业又面临需求下降，迫使央行重新放松政策立场。经济再次复苏后，随着市场又重新关注央行吸收超额准备金的可能性，长期利率在一个所谓“QE Trap”的重复周期中上行。相比之下，非QE国长期利率下降是渐进的，这延迟了复苏的开始(t2)；但一旦经济开始好转，由于利率较低，复苏步伐实际会更快。从美国疫情前逐步货币政策正常化的7年经验当中，我们也可以推出这一结论。美国上一轮QE是在2013年逐步退出的，但如果不退会发生什么？经济会更好吗？也许不会。当年美联储刚开始缩减购债的时候，通胀率只有1%，之后虽然9次加息、2017年10月又开始了量化紧缩（QT），通胀率却仍然在慢慢上升。深压住通胀的和让通胀维持缓慢上行的是同一个原因，那就是家庭和企业手里的储蓄始终没有得到消化，没有借钱，利率升高也就对他们造不成压力。这反过来说明，即便当时利率继续保持低位，经济活动也可能无动于衷。不仅如此，由于实体经济需求不足，继续QE反而可能导致大量闲钱进入房地产和金融市场，激起厚厚的资产泡沫。事实上，美国商业地产价格目前已经比2007年的上一个峰值高出了50%。重要的是，鉴于本轮QE比金融危机时已经迅猛得多，辜朝明在最近发布的研报中认为，美国经济已经半只脚踏进“量化宽松陷阱”中了，私营部门一旦恢复借款，通胀飙高、长债利率飙升乃是一触即发，届时将需要大幅提高政策利率来压制通胀。在70年代末那个没有QE的史前世界，美联储把政策利率大幅提高到22%来抑制通胀，如今又需要怎样的水平呢？03、美国放水，全球买单，这场大放水又会以怎样的方式收场？刚才我们谈了超级大放水对美国经济的影响。由于美元霸权的存在，美国经济政策的影响力绝不限于美国国内，通过一系列传导机制，美国这轮经济刺激影响极为深远，很有可能让全球都为美国人买单。而其中付出最大代价的可能还是新兴市场，这在历来都是如此，可能也是美国肆无忌惮大放水的原因之一。2020年，随着作为全球储备货币的美元流通量激增，各国纷纷开启了放水之路，以抵抗美国超发货币所引发的通胀，美国借此将通胀输出到全球。这在各国的房价涨幅上就有直接体现，OECD数据显示，去年全球89%国家的房价都在上涨，这一比例为2000年以来最高，土耳其、俄罗斯尤其上涨超过20%。而如今随着美国通胀预期的增强，美债收益率大幅走高，以及美国与新兴市场国家复苏节奏的错位，美元开始阶段性走强，并呈现出回流态势，局面完全反转。新兴市场被迫再次响应那句老话：美国人印钞票，全世界来买单。3月以来，新兴市场国家集体“抢跑”，赶在美联储行动之前提前加息。美国3月的议息会议前后的短短一周中，多个新兴市场国家纷纷掀起加息潮：3月17日巴西央行宣布上调基准贷款利率75个基点至2.75%（预期50个基点）。3月18日土耳其央行宣布将关键利率上调200个基点至19%（预期上调至18%）。3月19日俄罗斯央行宣布加息25个基点至4.50%（预期维持4.25%）。不仅如此，印度、阿根廷、马来西亚、泰国、韩国等新兴国家的指标均显示，市场对于加息的预期正在增强，今年至明年上半年至少加息一次。推动新兴市场国家加息的主要原因肯定是通胀的上行。而通胀的压力从普遍的分析来看还是自于供给端。一方面这类新兴市场国家下游消费品端的生产能力本身就薄弱，疫情的冲击便使得供需缺口扩大，直接体现到推升商品价格上。另一方面，这些国家的食品与交通类消费占比都在40-50%之上，且依赖于进出口，因而全球石油制品和食品价格的快速上行便进一步增加了新兴市场国家的输入性通胀压力。图：通胀水平达到目标政策区域这些具有高开放性和外贸依赖的新兴市场国家，很大程度上，只能被动接受发达国家经济和政策的溢出。然而，相对于通胀的上行，这些新兴国家的经济修复还处于一个相对偏慢的过程中，尤其是巴西和土耳其，失业率高企10%以上，同时对疫情的控制也再度面临考验。图：经济修复尚需时日与此同时，为了防止出现美元过快回流—本币贬值—恶性通胀—本国加息—资产价格下跌—外债暴露的恶性循环预期，新兴市场国家也不得不率先启动加息，一来抑制泡沫，二来稳定资本流出。图：去年各国货币相对美元最大升值幅度而那些外债比例高和资产市场涨幅明显的国家，或会付出更大的代价。今年以来土耳其隔夜拆借利率高企于15%以上，依然难以抑制国际资本流出，超预期加息后央行行长下台更引发恶性循环预期，资产价格暴跌，汇率崩盘。从外债来看接下来是智利、南非等。通胀偏高，尤其是资产价格涨幅偏高的国家，显示资本更多进入虚拟经济体而非实体经济复苏，也存在较大的资本流出风险。比如阿根廷、印度。这些国家加息更多是两害权其轻的操作，也没有太多货币政策的独立性可言。一旦出现资本流出较快，他们将为去年的流动性盛宴付出代价。美国呢，随着资金回流，美欧套利交易增加美债需求，美债利率上行压力反倒会有所缓解。图：欧美利差水平走阔至均值水平美元潮起潮落，中国作为最大的新兴市场国家，得益于国内的供给能力、流动性克制和货币独立，将抵御部分冲击，但是在全球性的风暴之下，资产价格压力难言缓和。或许货币可以超印，但财富不能，当我们以一个更宏观的视角看待全球货币现状，一个更深刻的命题是，如何用好自己的政策工具，作为个人又如何甄别好的资产，让自己的劳动报酬获得更稳健的保值。理解手中人民币的历史责任和其韬光养晦的价值，我们或许能在即将到来的风险中有所准备。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":372521134,"gmtCreate":1619228400128,"gmtModify":1704721534148,"author":{"id":"3581772836193010","authorId":"3581772836193010","name":"W19832009","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/053221146f2b2cedacd09663d2be2889","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581772836193010","idStr":"3581772836193010"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/372521134","repostId":"1117124305","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117124305","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619227102,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117124305?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-24 09:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The latest holdings of the social security fund have been revealed! The opportunity to copy homework has arrived.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117124305","media":"上海证券报","summary":"随着2021年一季度业绩披露渐入尾声，社保基金最新动向浮出水面。\n上证报资讯统计数据显示，截至4月23日，共有34家公司获得社保基金的青睐，其中不乏近期表现抢眼的大牛股。\n\n社保基金新增持股情况\n自2","content":"<p><div>As the first quarter 2021 earnings release draws to a close, the latest developments in the social security fund are coming to light. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities News, as of April 23, a total of 34 companies had been favored by the social security fund, including many recent top-performing stocks. Since July 2020, the stock price of Huamao Logistics has continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of more than 230%. In the first quarter of this year, Huamao Logistics' stock price increased by 38.43%, and its year-to-date increase was 60.82%. The social security fund portfolio 17041 has been newly added to the shareholder list of Huamao Logistics, holding its...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mNWcnzUIC8brgot4F6vRag\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The latest holdings of the social security fund have been revealed! The opportunity to copy homework has arrived.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe latest holdings of the social security fund have been revealed! The opportunity to copy homework has arrived.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">上海证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-24 09:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>As the first quarter 2021 earnings release draws to a close, the latest developments in the social security fund are coming to light. According to statistics from Shanghai Securities News, as of April 23, a total of 34 companies had been favored by the social security fund, including many recent top-performing stocks. Since July 2020, the stock price of Huamao Logistics has continued to rise, with a cumulative increase of more than 230%. In the first quarter of this year, Huamao Logistics' stock price increased by 38.43%, and its year-to-date increase was 60.82%. The social security fund portfolio 17041 has been newly added to the shareholder list of Huamao Logistics, holding its...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mNWcnzUIC8brgot4F6vRag\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mNWcnzUIC8brgot4F6vRag\">上海证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35149960e6afd85c38dd82d128f4c23e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mNWcnzUIC8brgot4F6vRag","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117124305","content_text":"随着2021年一季度业绩披露渐入尾声，社保基金最新动向浮出水面。\n上证报资讯统计数据显示，截至4月23日，共有34家公司获得社保基金的青睐，其中不乏近期表现抢眼的大牛股。\n\n社保基金新增持股情况\n自2020年7月份以来，华贸物流股价持续走高，至今累计涨幅已超过230%。今年一季度，华贸物流涨幅为38.43%，年初至今涨幅为60.82%。\n\n社保基金17041组合新进华贸物流股东榜，持有其1512.97万股股份，占总股本的1.16%，为第十大股东。\n截至一季度末，基本养老保险基金一二零五组合持有华贸物流3961.17万股股份，占总股本的3.03%，为第四大股东，较年初增持了1843.5万股股份。\n\n华贸物流股价上涨主要因为所在行业景气度提升。\n据悉，公司在国际航空货运市场经营多年，拥有较强的资源基础。2020年，疫情带来跨境电商出口行业的蓬勃生长，公司把握机遇，进一步发挥原有优势，扩大了其在跨境电商物流尤其是航空国际物流方面的优势。\n喜临门也获得社保基金青睐。\n截至一季度末，社保基金一零六组合新进喜临门股东榜，持有其539.76万股股份，占总股本的1.39%，为第九大股东。\n\n喜临门今年一季度实现营业收入12.50亿元，同比增长72.51%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润8448.69万元，同比增长255.55%。\n喜临门被视为床垫及软床行业龙头企业，目前国内该行业格局较为分散，喜临门的增长潜力被不少投资者所看重。或是受此影响，喜临门股价持续高涨，年初至今累计涨幅为47.88%。\n\n有些股票涨势喜人，有些在社保基金买入后却表现不佳。\n钢研高纳披露的2021年一季度显示，全国社保基金一零七组合进入公司前十大流通股股东榜，持股数量为234.92万股，占流通股的比例为0.55%。\n\n可在过去一段时间，钢研高纳股价表现却算不上抢眼，从年初高位至今已回落了超30%。\n\n从业绩来看，钢研高纳表现较好。一季度，公司实现营业收入3.5亿元，较上年同期增长43.28%；实现归属于上市公司股东净利润5560.32万元，较上年同期增长96.79%。\n在沪上某私募人士看来，抄社保基金作业要谨慎，短期股价涨跌不是核心要素，关键要看公司基本面。\n\n社保基金青睐股票今年表现情况","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}