$iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$SOXX declined more than 3% over past 5 days (especially last night) due to renewed fears of inflation and the impending downcycle of semiconductors. Yesterday Germany reported its PPI hit 37%, while UK reported CPI of 10.1% for July! This caused a new panic in the market last night as EU and UK are deemed as “behind the curve” and will most likely raised interest rate in the coming months. As usual, semiconductors are the “cyclical” sectors and not spared in the sell-down.Various semicon giants have signalled during earnings call that end-customers are adjusting down their inventory and this will last for 2-4 quarters. It used to be just smartphone and consumer electronics OEM, but recently there are news that even

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  TSMC will be reporting result on 13 Oct. Given that TSMC has already released its revenue performance for Jul to Sep, its 3Q financial performance should be within its previous guidance and well above market analysts' consensus. FX will be a strong tailwind for TSMC since it collect revenue in USD but report in NTD. However, market is always forward-looking and price company valuation using 6-12months outlook. Already, we are hearing TSMC N7 N6 fab utilisation rate falling off and most likely drop to 70% by 2Q23, and Apple and Nvidia refusing to accept price hike for advance chip despite increasedcost of production. TSMC will most likely be conservative in

$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$A very stable REIT in my portfolio, focusing on developed countries market. AREIT has given me good dividends and decent capital gain. Based on recent result, it has double digit rental reversion and new projects such as the Grab HQ and Ubix AEI will start contributing to the bottom line.I foresee more volatility ahead in the next 6-7 weeks leading up to Fed's interest rate hike, will consider accumulating if the share price tank below 2.8 again. 

$AEM HOLDINGS LTD(AWX.SI)$reported a fantastic 1H22 result, highest record first half revenue and PBT in its history!Revenue increased 181% you to 40.5mil, while EPS jumped to 26.78 cents, growing by 152%. This is a major earnings surprise because the 1H22 revenue already exceeded 68% of the upper range of AEM FY22 revenue guidance in 1Q.AEM achieved a lot of milestone this quarter, including 2 customer win and new acquisition in Nestek Korea. AEM revised its full year revenue guidance higher as well.Personally, I was very surprised as Intel, major customer of AEM, reported a lousy set of results with multiple delays in its sapphire rapid server CPU. System level testing is increasingly required for high end chips and the larger t

$CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMM TR.(CPAMF)$The sale of Mercatus’ S$4.1bn retail portfolio has created a buzz in the market.The portfolio comprises of 4 suburban malls, where at least 3 out of the 4 assets are dominant malls in their respective suburban vicinity and located at big residential catchment areas and strategically located near key transport nodes. CICT is probably the strongest contender among the local contenders for the portfolio, including Link REIT and FCT given its larger size and links to Temasek (same parent as Mercatus/NTUC). From CapitaLand and CICT’s perspective, they cannot afford to lose these prized assets to their competitors, especially after FCT bought over PGIM’s retail portfolio which already weaken CapitaLand’s dominance

$SINGAPORE POST LIMITED(S08.SI)$Following the operation warning announcement on 15 Jul 2022, Singpost released its 1Q22 Business Update this morning on 19 Aug 2022. There was some buzz from a local news that a social media influencer sold his HDB and invested S$300,000 into Sinkpost, so I was hoping to see what have I missed in next result. But alas, the result was worse than my expectation.Revenue increased by 24.7% due to the acquisition of FMH, but Opex increase almost 40%! As such, Operating Profit declined by 46.7%. Post and Parcel business recorded operating losses as revenues declined and operating costs increased. Earlier, Singpost also warned that a major eCommerce customer has insourced part of its own logistics, resulting in lower vol

$CapLand China T(AU8U.SI)$China retail market has seen a huge decline, and CLCT is not spared. The hope that China’s Covid zero policy will ease after Shanghai’s lockdown did not happen, and now Chengdu is going into another lockdown. CLCT has a shopping mall, CapitaMall Xinnan, in Chengdu and it’s expected to be badly hit with occupancy already dropping from 96.7% in Jun 2021 to 89.7% in Jun 2022 before the lockdown. Lockdown aside, with a weakening GDP growth, offline retail spending in China will definitely slow down and the retail malls in CLCT portfolio will definitely get hit. While I agree some form of pent-up demand will be there after the Covid lockdown, but I foresee many small retailers will not be able to survive until then and clos

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$Bearish CNA just reported Grab is not doing major layoff. Compared to $Sea Ltd(SE)$who is determined to be self-sufficient within 12-18 months and have embarked onmassive layoff and restructuring and cost control, you can see that Grab is less resolved and probably not urgent (at least in its attitude) to slow down the cash burn. Bearish on Grab. With limited net cash, it will exhaust its funding soon. Be careful

$SUNNY OPTICAL(02382)$Sunny Optical 1H22 result was released on 15 August 2022 and following the Company’s profit warning announcement that the net profit will drop 45-50% yoy. The 1H22 result was at the lower end of its profit warning: Net Profit -50% yoy to RMB1.4bil, due to weaker revenue (-14% yoy) and decline in Operating Profit margin due to dis-economics of scales. Revenue and Gross Profit from smartphone-related products are badly affected due to weak demand of smartphone market and downgrading specification of smartphone camera. However, vehicle lens set did better as revenue related to the optical parts of LiDAR and head-up display increased significantly as the projects have been commenced mass production.I expect Sunny Optical’s hands

Some news reported Sunny Optical is said to supply the 7P lens for the rear wide-angle camera of all iPhone 14 series models, and it is expected that 50% to 60% of the Pro series and 55% to 65% of the base model will be equipped with the company’s lenses. The rest of the 7P lens for the rear wide-angle camera will be supplied by Genius and Largan Precision in roughly equal proportions. Furthermore, Sunny Optical may also become the primarily supplier of Lidar lens for iPhone 15 in 2023, replacing Genius as the main supplierIf true, this will likely mark a major breakthrough for Sunny Optical's Apple business.The original author of this analysis is Kuo Ming Zhi. Ming Zhi is well-regarded as “The Most Accurate Apple Analyst in the World” and “The Analyst Who Reveals all of Apple's Secrets.”

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$TSMC share price has corrected a lot after a series of negative news such as Powell’s hawkish speech during Jackson Hole symposium and the US restriction on AI GPUs to China (affecting their major clients NVDA and AMD). As inventory destocking continues and demand weakness spreading to Data Center, the revenue and profit outlook for TSMC becomes bleaker. TSMC should see limited upside in the next three months until demand headwinds are clear.More order cuts are coming in from smartphones (both MediaTek and Qualcomm) as well as some HPC customers (NVDA, AMD, etc.) which will likely result in a slower 2023. In particular, N7 is the primary area of concern due to weaker demand and migration to N5 for smartphone

$NetEase(NTES)$NetEase is the second largest online game player in China with many successful IPs and high-quality game pipeline. The company has reported a solid 2Q22 result last week. Revenue grew by 12.8%, while net profit rose by 28%!Within online games, PC game was up 41% yoy, mainly due to new contribution from Naraka: Bladepoint and Fantasy Westward Journey PC version. Mobile game revenue was up 6% yoy due to strong performance of Infinite Lagrange. Revenue of Harry Potter: Magic Awakened was deferred. Netease Cloud Music did well too, with revenue increasing 30% yoy. Unfortunately, Youdao’s revenue slide down 26% yoy due to the suspension of after-school tutoring services under China’s latest policy. While global gaming market demand in 20

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$Last 2 trading session could be a bear trap, and the stock price trend can reverse very quickly. Inflation remained very stubborn and Fed would do everything to bring it down.  USA has a 30 trillion debt. In my humble opinion, I don't think USA can refinance and maintain its debt at a 4%+ consistently. That's why Fed has to bite the bullet and do drastic measures in order to bring down the inflation quickly, so that it can lower the rate earlier too. Racing against time. QQQ will not recover quickly within the next few months.

Happy Weekend tigers!Recently NTUC has been marketing its retail portfolio of S$4billion, with a number of prominent bidders such as CapitaLand, Frasers, Link Reit andeven Far East organisation. The portfolio includesvery well-located shopping malls including AMK Hub, Jurong Point, NEX and Swing By@Thomsan Plaza.Bloomberg reports on 21 July that CICT and Link Reit are the among the top bidders for the shopping mall portfolio.Firstly, I don't think these acquisitions will be accretive at this moment. Based on lendlease's recent acquisition of JEM, the entry yield for these should be 3-4%. Interest rate in SG has risen significantly, and cost of equity fund raising will be high since REIT price has gone down significantly. For CICT, they just completed the acquisition of 79 Robinson Roa

$Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$With the bad news from AMD weighing on the entire tech sector, tonight qqq is likely to close red again. The only possible chance for qqq to rebound isa worse than expected non-farm payroll data, which is quite low probability given that earlier announcement already reported strong employment data.  My bet that SQQQ will close higher tonight as market becomes more fearful.

$SPY(SPY)$Next week will kickstart the earnings season for US companies. Judging from those who already reported their earnings earlier (NIKE, Micron, AMD etc) current earnings is most likely to see a downward revision. This shouldnot be a surprise though; the Fed is intentionally hiking rates to force demand cut. This will naturally lead to lower earnings reported from 3Q onwards as consumers buy less and cut back on purchases. You can even say the impending recession is engineered by the Fed to bring down the inflation.  In my opinion, Fed wants to bring down inflation quickly rather than gradually, because the US's 31 trillion of debt cannot sustain 4%+ rate for a prolonged time. Hence, be prepared to see more loss

Jerome Powell is unlikely to do more than 75bps rate hike. Firstly, it is political sensitive to do such a drastic hike before the US midterms and Fed will invite a lot of criticism and pushback. People are already fed up with Fed. Powell may not keephis position if he continues to be stubborn, like how Trump changed Yellen when she does not serve his party's purpose.Secondly, there are so many signs that inflation is slowing down by now. Even in the peak of inflation in June, Fed only hike rates by 75bps. It would be crazy and unthinkable for Powell to do 100bps at this juncture.Also, mortgage rate is already higher than 2007 just before the subprime mortgage crisis. Any more rate hikes beyond 4 to 4.25% Fed fund rate is overkill will risk the US economy in a big way. Powell has

$POWERMATIC DATA SYSTEMS LTD(BCY.SI)$Powermatic Data Systems manufactures a wide range of wireless connectivity hardware such as wireless module, embedded boards and antenna. Powermatic Data is also the authorized design center for Qualcomm in Southeast Asia where they provide both hardware and software services to many MNCs. Powermatic Data is extremely undervalued at its current trading price, and I believe this company’s share price has been mispriced due to its valuable freehold land and huge net cash in its balance sheet.The Company’s Revenue and EPS has been growing at a CAGR of approximately 15% over the past 5 years. Being a leading manufacturer in the wireless connectivity market, Powermatic Data rides on transformative trends such as h

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