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2021-07-06

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Oil Slips as OPEC+ Uncertainty Raises Concerns of Oversupply

2021-07-05

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2021-06-24

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Here's How The Laws Of Supply And Demand Lead To Major Moves For Growth Stocks

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2021-06-27

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22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oil Slips as OPEC+ Uncertainty Raises Concerns of Oversupply","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150315172","media":"Bloomberg","summary":" -- Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.West Texas Intermediate futures for August fell as much as 1.3% in New York. With the collapse of talks on Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t boost output in August, unless an agreement can be salvaged. The lack of OPEC+ unity could invite new barrels to the market and spell beari","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.</p>\n<p>West Texas Intermediate futures for August fell as much as 1.3% in New York. With the collapse of talks on Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t boost output in August, unless an agreement can be salvaged. The lack of OPEC+ unity could invite new barrels to the market and spell bearish news for current prices, said Tom Finlon of Brownsville GTR LLC, a trading and logistics firm based in Houston.</p>\n<p>“I think if you have 23 oil-producing countries that are party to an agreement, and that agreement isn’t extended, and the price of crude is in the mid-70s, that’s an engraved invitation to overproduce,” said Finlon.</p>\n<p>Oil prices have rallied this year, as vaccination rates and economic reopening around the world have spurred fuel consumption. The extent to which the rally continues depends largely on OPEC+ ability to reach an agreement to limit output.</p>\n<p>Tuesday’s decline cames as most commodity and stock markets fell and the dollar edged higher.</p>\n<p>Discussions among the alliance dissolved acrimoniously as the United Arab Emirates blocked a proposal led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. While the situation is fluid and negotiations could be reactivated, the breakdown has damaged the group’s image as a responsible steward of the market.</p>\n<p>WTI earlier hit the highest since November 2014, as the breakdown in talks left the market without the extra supplies for next month it had been counting on. Analysts from Citigroup Inc. to UBS Group AG warned that withholding extra supplies as demand recovers rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic will push prices higher.</p>\n<p>A repeat of last year’s destructive price war, which sent oil crashing, is also no longer a “negligible” prospect, Goldman warned.</p>\n<p>“If there’s any indication that the UAE folks are adding barrels, there’s a chance, probably a good chance that others within the producer group will try and beat them to the punch,” said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.</p>\n<p>Oil and Dollars: Why the UAE Is Risking a Falling-Out With OPEC+</p>\n<p>Oil’s rally has been accompanied by sharp moves in price spreads between monthly contracts, an indication that traders see supply conditions growing tighter. The premium of Brent’s November contract over December jumped to 81 cents a barrel from 73 cents on Friday.</p>\n<p>The 23-nation OPEC+ coalition had been on the brink of an agreement to restore production halted during the pandemic, in monthly increments of 400,000 barrels a day. That plan could still be ratified, or members may choose to informally leak barrels to eager consumers.</p>\n<p>“A compromise will be reached which should allow additional barrels into the market from August,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank A/S. “The political pressure from large consumers such as India and China will grow, with Washington probably also adding some pressure.”</p>\n<p>Traders will also look to crude and gasoline inventories in the U.S. last week for signals about demand in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, in the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute report released later Tuesday.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil Slips as OPEC+ Uncertainty Raises Concerns of Oversupply</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil Slips as OPEC+ Uncertainty Raises Concerns of Oversupply\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-06 22:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-price-jumps-six-074615967.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.\nWest Texas ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-price-jumps-six-074615967.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-price-jumps-six-074615967.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150315172","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.\nWest Texas Intermediate futures for August fell as much as 1.3% in New York. With the collapse of talks on Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t boost output in August, unless an agreement can be salvaged. The lack of OPEC+ unity could invite new barrels to the market and spell bearish news for current prices, said Tom Finlon of Brownsville GTR LLC, a trading and logistics firm based in Houston.\n“I think if you have 23 oil-producing countries that are party to an agreement, and that agreement isn’t extended, and the price of crude is in the mid-70s, that’s an engraved invitation to overproduce,” said Finlon.\nOil prices have rallied this year, as vaccination rates and economic reopening around the world have spurred fuel consumption. The extent to which the rally continues depends largely on OPEC+ ability to reach an agreement to limit output.\nTuesday’s decline cames as most commodity and stock markets fell and the dollar edged higher.\nDiscussions among the alliance dissolved acrimoniously as the United Arab Emirates blocked a proposal led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. While the situation is fluid and negotiations could be reactivated, the breakdown has damaged the group’s image as a responsible steward of the market.\nWTI earlier hit the highest since November 2014, as the breakdown in talks left the market without the extra supplies for next month it had been counting on. Analysts from Citigroup Inc. to UBS Group AG warned that withholding extra supplies as demand recovers rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic will push prices higher.\nA repeat of last year’s destructive price war, which sent oil crashing, is also no longer a “negligible” prospect, Goldman warned.\n“If there’s any indication that the UAE folks are adding barrels, there’s a chance, probably a good chance that others within the producer group will try and beat them to the punch,” said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.\nOil and Dollars: Why the UAE Is Risking a Falling-Out With OPEC+\nOil’s rally has been accompanied by sharp moves in price spreads between monthly contracts, an indication that traders see supply conditions growing tighter. The premium of Brent’s November contract over December jumped to 81 cents a barrel from 73 cents on Friday.\nThe 23-nation OPEC+ coalition had been on the brink of an agreement to restore production halted during the pandemic, in monthly increments of 400,000 barrels a day. That plan could still be ratified, or members may choose to informally leak barrels to eager consumers.\n“A compromise will be reached which should allow additional barrels into the market from August,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank A/S. “The political pressure from large consumers such as India and China will grow, with Washington probably also adding some pressure.”\nTraders will also look to crude and gasoline inventories in the U.S. last week for signals about demand in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, in the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute report released later Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155473758,"gmtCreate":1625451013674,"gmtModify":1703741942613,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok&nbsp;","listText":"ok&nbsp;","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155473758","repostId":"1124717185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124717185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625371001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124717185?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-04 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's How The Laws Of Supply And Demand Lead To Major Moves For Growth Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124717185","media":"investors","summary":"The laws of supply and demand seem simple on their face, but understanding the subtle nuances is key","content":"<p>The laws of supply and demand seem simple on their face, but understanding the subtle nuances is key for stock investors who want to take advantage of major price moves.</p>\n<p>Supply and demand is one of the bedrock principles of business and economics. A simple recent example is how the price of lumber skyrocketed amid Covid-related shortages.</p>\n<p>In the stock market, the companies seen as the best positioned by big money will see their share price driven higher as demand ramps up. When this happens, supply will also be constricted, as holders will be more reluctant to sell their shares. Thus, supply and demand is the S in IBD'sCAN SLIM investing method, and the subject of the fourth in an Investor's Corner series.</p>\n<p>Legendary IBD founder William O'Neil, writing in his classic tome, \"How to Make Money in Stocks,\" said supply and demand is \"more important than the opinions of all the analysts on Wall Street, no matter what schools they attended, what degrees they earned, or how high their IQs.\"</p>\n<p>Float Size Matters</p>\n<p>A key point to bear in mind is whether the stock you are eying has a large or a small float: the number of shares available for trading. Getting locked into a stock with a small supply of shares means you can be taken on wild rides, both on the upside and the downside.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, investing in a big-cap name with a massive amount of shares outstanding means it is much more difficult for that stock to make big moves. On the plus side, this can also be less stressful on one's stomach.</p>\n<p>The ideal is to find a happy medium — a stock that boasts strong earnings growth, and one that is still expanding by offering new products and services. Also look for one that is attracting the attention of institutional investors. Nevertheless, stocks of companies with any size of capitalization can be bought byCAN SLIM investors.</p>\n<p>Other encouraging signs to look for are companies that are buying back their stock, which reduces the supply of shares in the market.</p>\n<p>How do you measure demand?</p>\n<p>As is often the case when researching a stock, charts are key. Look at the average daily trading volume. Days where the number of shares traded is much higher, or lower, than normal are a key indicator.</p>\n<p>When a share price spikes in big trading volume, this is a clear sign of institutional demand. It is a key indicator that mutual fund managers and other big money buyers, who account for most trading in the stock market, are snapping up a stock. This sort of accumulation is the main driver for big price moves.</p>\n<p>Piggybacking on such action is a proven way for the intelligent investor to succeed. But make sure to carefully study price charts to find stocks that arebreaking out of proper basesor rebounding from key chart levels. When a stock tops abuy point, ideally volume will be at least 40% above average.</p>\n<p>The IBD Stock Checkup is another key tool. Under the supply and demand section, you'll find pass or fail ratings for all key related criteria.</p>\n<p>That includes information on a stock's market capitalization and itsAccumulation/Distribution Rating, which gauges institutional buying and selling over the previous 13 weeks. Also, the percentage change in funds owning a stock and the number of quarters of increasing fund ownership. Look for stocks flashing green lights in all of these areas.</p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's How The Laws Of Supply And Demand Lead To Major Moves For Growth Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's How The Laws Of Supply And Demand Lead To Major Moves For Growth Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-04 11:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/heres-how-the-laws-of-supply-and-demand-lead-to-major-moves-for-growth-stocks/?src=A00220><strong>investors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The laws of supply and demand seem simple on their face, but understanding the subtle nuances is key for stock investors who want to take advantage of major price moves.\nSupply and demand is one of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/heres-how-the-laws-of-supply-and-demand-lead-to-major-moves-for-growth-stocks/?src=A00220\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/heres-how-the-laws-of-supply-and-demand-lead-to-major-moves-for-growth-stocks/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124717185","content_text":"The laws of supply and demand seem simple on their face, but understanding the subtle nuances is key for stock investors who want to take advantage of major price moves.\nSupply and demand is one of the bedrock principles of business and economics. A simple recent example is how the price of lumber skyrocketed amid Covid-related shortages.\nIn the stock market, the companies seen as the best positioned by big money will see their share price driven higher as demand ramps up. When this happens, supply will also be constricted, as holders will be more reluctant to sell their shares. Thus, supply and demand is the S in IBD'sCAN SLIM investing method, and the subject of the fourth in an Investor's Corner series.\nLegendary IBD founder William O'Neil, writing in his classic tome, \"How to Make Money in Stocks,\" said supply and demand is \"more important than the opinions of all the analysts on Wall Street, no matter what schools they attended, what degrees they earned, or how high their IQs.\"\nFloat Size Matters\nA key point to bear in mind is whether the stock you are eying has a large or a small float: the number of shares available for trading. Getting locked into a stock with a small supply of shares means you can be taken on wild rides, both on the upside and the downside.\nOn the other hand, investing in a big-cap name with a massive amount of shares outstanding means it is much more difficult for that stock to make big moves. On the plus side, this can also be less stressful on one's stomach.\nThe ideal is to find a happy medium — a stock that boasts strong earnings growth, and one that is still expanding by offering new products and services. Also look for one that is attracting the attention of institutional investors. Nevertheless, stocks of companies with any size of capitalization can be bought byCAN SLIM investors.\nOther encouraging signs to look for are companies that are buying back their stock, which reduces the supply of shares in the market.\nHow do you measure demand?\nAs is often the case when researching a stock, charts are key. Look at the average daily trading volume. Days where the number of shares traded is much higher, or lower, than normal are a key indicator.\nWhen a share price spikes in big trading volume, this is a clear sign of institutional demand. It is a key indicator that mutual fund managers and other big money buyers, who account for most trading in the stock market, are snapping up a stock. This sort of accumulation is the main driver for big price moves.\nPiggybacking on such action is a proven way for the intelligent investor to succeed. But make sure to carefully study price charts to find stocks that arebreaking out of proper basesor rebounding from key chart levels. When a stock tops abuy point, ideally volume will be at least 40% above average.\nThe IBD Stock Checkup is another key tool. Under the supply and demand section, you'll find pass or fail ratings for all key related criteria.\nThat includes information on a stock's market capitalization and itsAccumulation/Distribution Rating, which gauges institutional buying and selling over the previous 13 weeks. Also, the percentage change in funds owning a stock and the number of quarters of increasing fund ownership. Look for stocks flashing green lights in all of these areas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155447760,"gmtCreate":1625450876950,"gmtModify":1703741938471,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155447760","repostId":"2149383083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149383083","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1625437372,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149383083?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-05 06:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden administration provides assistance on ransomware attacks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149383083","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is assisting victims of the ransomware attack tha","content":"<p>WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is assisting victims of the ransomware attack that has hit hundreds of American businesses \"based upon an assessment of national risk,\" a top cybersecurity official to President Joe Biden said on Sunday.</p>\n<p>In a statement, Anne Neuberger said that \"anyone who believes their systems have been compromised\" should report the incident immediately.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden administration provides assistance on ransomware attacks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden administration provides assistance on ransomware attacks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-05 06:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is assisting victims of the ransomware attack that has hit hundreds of American businesses \"based upon an assessment of national risk,\" a top cybersecurity official to President Joe Biden said on Sunday.</p>\n<p>In a statement, Anne Neuberger said that \"anyone who believes their systems have been compromised\" should report the incident immediately.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149383083","content_text":"WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is assisting victims of the ransomware attack that has hit hundreds of American businesses \"based upon an assessment of national risk,\" a top cybersecurity official to President Joe Biden said on Sunday.\nIn a statement, Anne Neuberger said that \"anyone who believes their systems have been compromised\" should report the incident immediately.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155445492,"gmtCreate":1625450805116,"gmtModify":1703741935649,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155445492","repostId":"2149386731","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149386731","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1625449517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149386731?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-05 09:45","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Growth in China's June services activity falls to 14-month low","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149386731","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - Growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month l","content":"<p>BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - Growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month low, weighed down by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in southern China, a private survey showed on Monday, adding to concerns the world's second-largest economy may be starting to lose some momentum.</p>\n<p>The Caixin/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services Purchasing Managers' Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PMI.UK\">$(PMI.UK)$</a> fell to 50.3 in June, the lowest since April 2020 and down significantly from 55.1 in May. It held just above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.</p>\n<p>China's official services gauge had also shown a marked slowdown in June, though it remained well in expansion territory. The private survey is believed to focus more on smaller companies.</p>\n<p>Coupled with a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, analysts say the PMI survey findings suggest that pent-up COVID demand may have peaked and China's robust economic rebound from the crisis is starting to moderate.</p>\n<p>Though slower to recover from the pandemic than manufacturing, a gradual improvement in consumption in recent months had boosted China's services sector.</p>\n<p>However, a COVID-19 outbreak of the more infectious Delta strain in the export and manufacturing hub of Guangdong since late May and the subsequent imposition of anti-virus measures have weighed on consumer and business activity.</p>\n<p>While the government reacted quickly to contain the new wave of cases, and economic disruptions are easing, the private survey showed services providers' business outlook for the year ahead slipped to the lowest in nine months.</p>\n<p>A sub-index of new business stood at 50.5, also the lowest since April 2020 when the services sector was still mired in COVID paralysis. Firms also cut staff in June for the first time in four months, as a result of slowing demand.</p>\n<p>One bright spot in the survey was a marked easing in inflationary pressures, which have squeezed profit margins. Input costs rose at the slowest pace since September 2020, and services firms cut their prices charged for the first time in 11 months to win new business.</p>\n<p>Caixin's June composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to a 14-month low of 50.6 from May's 53.8.</p>\n<p>\"The manufacturing industry has returned to normal in the wake of the epidemic, while the services industry is still sensitive to regional resurgences,\" said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.</p>\n<p>\"In addition, the low base effect from last year will continue to weaken in the second half of this year. Inflationary pressure, intertwined with the economic slowdown, will still be a serious challenge.\"</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Growth in China's June services activity falls to 14-month low</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrowth in China's June services activity falls to 14-month low\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-05 09:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - Growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month low, weighed down by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in southern China, a private survey showed on Monday, adding to concerns the world's second-largest economy may be starting to lose some momentum.</p>\n<p>The Caixin/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services Purchasing Managers' Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PMI.UK\">$(PMI.UK)$</a> fell to 50.3 in June, the lowest since April 2020 and down significantly from 55.1 in May. It held just above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.</p>\n<p>China's official services gauge had also shown a marked slowdown in June, though it remained well in expansion territory. The private survey is believed to focus more on smaller companies.</p>\n<p>Coupled with a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, analysts say the PMI survey findings suggest that pent-up COVID demand may have peaked and China's robust economic rebound from the crisis is starting to moderate.</p>\n<p>Though slower to recover from the pandemic than manufacturing, a gradual improvement in consumption in recent months had boosted China's services sector.</p>\n<p>However, a COVID-19 outbreak of the more infectious Delta strain in the export and manufacturing hub of Guangdong since late May and the subsequent imposition of anti-virus measures have weighed on consumer and business activity.</p>\n<p>While the government reacted quickly to contain the new wave of cases, and economic disruptions are easing, the private survey showed services providers' business outlook for the year ahead slipped to the lowest in nine months.</p>\n<p>A sub-index of new business stood at 50.5, also the lowest since April 2020 when the services sector was still mired in COVID paralysis. Firms also cut staff in June for the first time in four months, as a result of slowing demand.</p>\n<p>One bright spot in the survey was a marked easing in inflationary pressures, which have squeezed profit margins. Input costs rose at the slowest pace since September 2020, and services firms cut their prices charged for the first time in 11 months to win new business.</p>\n<p>Caixin's June composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to a 14-month low of 50.6 from May's 53.8.</p>\n<p>\"The manufacturing industry has returned to normal in the wake of the epidemic, while the services industry is still sensitive to regional resurgences,\" said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.</p>\n<p>\"In addition, the low base effect from last year will continue to weaken in the second half of this year. Inflationary pressure, intertwined with the economic slowdown, will still be a serious challenge.\"</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149386731","content_text":"BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - Growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month low, weighed down by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in southern China, a private survey showed on Monday, adding to concerns the world's second-largest economy may be starting to lose some momentum.\nThe Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index $(PMI.UK)$ fell to 50.3 in June, the lowest since April 2020 and down significantly from 55.1 in May. It held just above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.\nChina's official services gauge had also shown a marked slowdown in June, though it remained well in expansion territory. The private survey is believed to focus more on smaller companies.\nCoupled with a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, analysts say the PMI survey findings suggest that pent-up COVID demand may have peaked and China's robust economic rebound from the crisis is starting to moderate.\nThough slower to recover from the pandemic than manufacturing, a gradual improvement in consumption in recent months had boosted China's services sector.\nHowever, a COVID-19 outbreak of the more infectious Delta strain in the export and manufacturing hub of Guangdong since late May and the subsequent imposition of anti-virus measures have weighed on consumer and business activity.\nWhile the government reacted quickly to contain the new wave of cases, and economic disruptions are easing, the private survey showed services providers' business outlook for the year ahead slipped to the lowest in nine months.\nA sub-index of new business stood at 50.5, also the lowest since April 2020 when the services sector was still mired in COVID paralysis. Firms also cut staff in June for the first time in four months, as a result of slowing demand.\nOne bright spot in the survey was a marked easing in inflationary pressures, which have squeezed profit margins. Input costs rose at the slowest pace since September 2020, and services firms cut their prices charged for the first time in 11 months to win new business.\nCaixin's June composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to a 14-month low of 50.6 from May's 53.8.\n\"The manufacturing industry has returned to normal in the wake of the epidemic, while the services industry is still sensitive to regional resurgences,\" said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.\n\"In addition, the low base effect from last year will continue to weaken in the second half of this year. Inflationary pressure, intertwined with the economic slowdown, will still be a serious challenge.\"\n(Reporting by Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155442500,"gmtCreate":1625450767300,"gmtModify":1703741934163,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nooooo","listText":"Nooooo","text":"Nooooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155442500","repostId":"1169840279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159864502,"gmtCreate":1624956617306,"gmtModify":1703848789159,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like like Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like like Like&nbsp;","text":"Like like Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159864502","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159866468,"gmtCreate":1624956454154,"gmtModify":1703848784467,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159866468","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127005200,"gmtCreate":1624800106000,"gmtModify":1703845304758,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127005200","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117734317?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>\n <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>\n <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>\n <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>\n <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p>\n<p>On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p>\n<p>However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p>\n<p>In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p>\n<p><b>Overview</b></p>\n<p>SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p>\n<p>As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p>\n<p>Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p>\n<p>This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p>\n<p>However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p>\n<p><b>Quantitative</b></p>\n<p>Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p>\n<p>It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p>\n<p>Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p>\n<p>However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p>\n<p>For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p>\n<p>As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p>\n<p>Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p>\n<p>On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p>\n<p>This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p>\n<p>Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p>\n<p><b>Macro</b></p>\n<p>Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p>\n<p>Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p>\n<p><b>Small Business Environment</b></p>\n<p>SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p>\n<p>The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p>\n<p>Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p>\n<p>Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p>\n<p>Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p>\n<p>Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p>\n<p><b>Small Business Lending</b></p>\n<p>Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p>\n<p>Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p>\n<p>This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p>\n<p>This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p>\n<p>There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p>\n<p>Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p>\n<p>The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p>\n<p>Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p>\n<p>This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p>\n<p>It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p>\n<p>Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p>\n<p>Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p>\n<p><b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p>\n<p>Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p>\n<p>Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p>\n<p>The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p>\n<p>Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p>\n<p>In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p>\n<p>Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin</b></p>\n<p>When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p>\n<p>From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p>\n<p>Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p>\n<p>The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p>\n<p>This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p>\n<p>Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p>\n<p>This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p>\n<p>Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Cash App</b></p>\n<p>On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p>\n<p>However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;\n <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p>\n<p>The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>April 12-18 2020</li>\n <li>January 24-30 2021</li>\n</ul>\n<p>These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p>\n<p>Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p>\n<p>It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p>\n<blockquote>\n ... has at least\n <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p>\n<p>Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p>\n<p><b>Technicals</b></p>\n<p>Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p>\n<p>When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p>\n<p>From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p>\n<p>Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p>\n<p>Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p>\n<p>Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p>\n<p><b>Price Targets</b></p>\n<p>On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p>\n<p>However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p>\n<p>I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p>\n<p>If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p>\n<p>The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p>\n<p>If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p>\n<p>Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p>\n<p>Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<p>SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p>\n<p>From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p>\n<p>Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 10:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127005897,"gmtCreate":1624800073919,"gmtModify":1703845304112,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beeeeebooop","listText":"Beeeeebooop","text":"Beeeeebooop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127005897","repostId":"2146070550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127006701,"gmtCreate":1624799866003,"gmtModify":1703845302014,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127006701","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126090133,"gmtCreate":1624535858822,"gmtModify":1703839639412,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126090133","repostId":"1118732537","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118732537","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624517129,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118732537?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 14:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The \"Great Reset\" Is Here, Part 1: The New Blueprint For Worldwide Inflation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118732537","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For years, currency analysts (myself included) have looked forsigns of an international monetary “re","content":"<p>For years, currency analysts (myself included) have looked for<b>signs of an international monetary “reset” that would diminish the dollar’s role as the leading reserve currency and replace it with a substitute,</b>which would be agreed upon at some Bretton Woods-style monetary conference.</p>\n<p><b>Now, it looks like the move towards the long-expected Great Reset is accelerating.</b></p>\n<p>At the recent G7 summit in the UK, G7 leaders gave their blessings to a $100 billion allocation of IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) to help lower-income countries address the COVID-19 crisis.</p>\n<p>President Biden fully supports the idea. The White House issued the following statement:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The United States and our G7 partners are actively considering a global effort to multiply the impact of the proposed Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation to the countries most in need…At potentially up to $100 billion in size, the proposed effort would further support health needs – including vaccinations…</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>A separate press release from the same day continued the same sentiment, stating, “We strongly support the effort to recycle SDRs to further support health needs.”</b></p>\n<p>In another development, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last Wednesday that she expected the fund’s governors to approve a $650 billion allocation of SDRs in mid-August.</p>\n<p><u><b>What exactly are SDRs?</b></u></p>\n<p><b>Basically, they’re world money.</b></p>\n<p>In 1969, the IMF created the SDR, possibly to serve as a source of liquidity and alternative to the dollar.</p>\n<p><b>In 1971, the dollar did devalue relative to gold and other major currencies. SDRs were issued by the IMF from 1970 to 1981. None were issued after 1981 until 2009 during the global financial crisis.</b></p>\n<p>The 2009 issuance was a case of the IMF “testing the plumbing” of the system to make sure it worked properly. Because zero SDRs were issued from 1981–2009, the IMF wanted to rehearse the governance, computational, and legal processes for issuing SDRs.</p>\n<p>The purpose was partly to alleviate liquidity concerns at the time, but it was also to make sure the system works in case a large, new issuance was needed on short notice. The 2009 experiment showed the system worked fine.</p>\n<p>Since 2009, the IMF has proceeded in slow steps to create a platform for massive new issuances of SDRs and establish a deep liquid pool of SDR-denominated assets.</p>\n<p>On January 7, 2011, the IMF issued a master plan for replacing the dollar with SDRs.</p>\n<p>This included creating an SDR bond market, SDR dealers, and ancillary facilities such as repos, derivatives, settlement and clearance channels, and the entire apparatus of a liquid bond market.</p>\n<p>A liquid bond market is critical. U.S. Treasury bonds are among the world’s most liquid securities, which makes the dollar a legitimate reserve currency.</p>\n<p><b>The IMF study recommended that the SDR bond market replicate the infrastructure of the U.S. Treasury market, with hedging, financing, settlement and clearance mechanisms substantially similar to those used to support trading in Treasury securities today.</b></p>\n<p>In August 2016, the World Bank announced that it would issue SDR-denominated bonds to private purchasers. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the largest bank in China, will be the lead underwriter on the deal.</p>\n<p>In September 2016, the IMF included the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket, giving China a seat at the monetary table.</p>\n<p><b>So, the framework has been created to expand the SDR’s scope.</b></p>\n<p>The SDR can be issued in abundance to IMF members and used in the future for a select list of the most important transactions in the world, including balance-of-payments settlements, oil pricing, and the financial accounts of the world’s largest corporations, such as Exxon Mobil, Toyota, and Royal Dutch Shell.</p>\n<p>The basic idea behind the SDR is that the<b>global monetary system centered around the dollar is inherently unstable</b>and needs to be reformed.</p>\n<p>Part of the problem is due to a process called Triffin’s Dilemma, named after economist Robert Triffin. Triffin said that the issuer of a dominant reserve currency had to run trade deficits so that the rest of the world could have enough of the currency to buy goods from the issuer and expand world trade.</p>\n<p>But, if you run deficits long enough, you would eventually go broke. This was said about the dollar in the early 1960s. The SDR would solve Triffin’s Dilemma.</p>\n<p>I wrote about SDRs and the global elite plans for them in the second chapter of my 2016 book,&nbsp;<i>The Road to Ruin</i>.</p>\n<p><b>Over the next several years, we will see the issuance of SDRs to transnational organizations, such as the U.N. and World Bank, for spending on climate change infrastructure and other elite pet projects outside the supervision of any democratically elected bodies.</b></p>\n<p>I call this the New Blueprint for Worldwide Inflation.</p>\n<p><b>But Triffin’s Dilemma is not the only dynamic that’s pushing the world away from the dollar.</b></p>\n<p><i>In Part 2, we show you why the weaponization of the dollar by the U.S. government is pushing the world to seek alternatives.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Great Reset\" Is Here, Part 1: The New Blueprint For Worldwide Inflation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Great Reset\" Is Here, Part 1: The New Blueprint For Worldwide Inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 14:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/great-reset-here-part-1-new-blueprint-worldwide-inflation><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For years, currency analysts (myself included) have looked forsigns of an international monetary “reset” that would diminish the dollar’s role as the leading reserve currency and replace it with a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/great-reset-here-part-1-new-blueprint-worldwide-inflation\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/great-reset-here-part-1-new-blueprint-worldwide-inflation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118732537","content_text":"For years, currency analysts (myself included) have looked forsigns of an international monetary “reset” that would diminish the dollar’s role as the leading reserve currency and replace it with a substitute,which would be agreed upon at some Bretton Woods-style monetary conference.\nNow, it looks like the move towards the long-expected Great Reset is accelerating.\nAt the recent G7 summit in the UK, G7 leaders gave their blessings to a $100 billion allocation of IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) to help lower-income countries address the COVID-19 crisis.\nPresident Biden fully supports the idea. The White House issued the following statement:\n\nThe United States and our G7 partners are actively considering a global effort to multiply the impact of the proposed Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation to the countries most in need…At potentially up to $100 billion in size, the proposed effort would further support health needs – including vaccinations…\n\nA separate press release from the same day continued the same sentiment, stating, “We strongly support the effort to recycle SDRs to further support health needs.”\nIn another development, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last Wednesday that she expected the fund’s governors to approve a $650 billion allocation of SDRs in mid-August.\nWhat exactly are SDRs?\nBasically, they’re world money.\nIn 1969, the IMF created the SDR, possibly to serve as a source of liquidity and alternative to the dollar.\nIn 1971, the dollar did devalue relative to gold and other major currencies. SDRs were issued by the IMF from 1970 to 1981. None were issued after 1981 until 2009 during the global financial crisis.\nThe 2009 issuance was a case of the IMF “testing the plumbing” of the system to make sure it worked properly. Because zero SDRs were issued from 1981–2009, the IMF wanted to rehearse the governance, computational, and legal processes for issuing SDRs.\nThe purpose was partly to alleviate liquidity concerns at the time, but it was also to make sure the system works in case a large, new issuance was needed on short notice. The 2009 experiment showed the system worked fine.\nSince 2009, the IMF has proceeded in slow steps to create a platform for massive new issuances of SDRs and establish a deep liquid pool of SDR-denominated assets.\nOn January 7, 2011, the IMF issued a master plan for replacing the dollar with SDRs.\nThis included creating an SDR bond market, SDR dealers, and ancillary facilities such as repos, derivatives, settlement and clearance channels, and the entire apparatus of a liquid bond market.\nA liquid bond market is critical. U.S. Treasury bonds are among the world’s most liquid securities, which makes the dollar a legitimate reserve currency.\nThe IMF study recommended that the SDR bond market replicate the infrastructure of the U.S. Treasury market, with hedging, financing, settlement and clearance mechanisms substantially similar to those used to support trading in Treasury securities today.\nIn August 2016, the World Bank announced that it would issue SDR-denominated bonds to private purchasers. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the largest bank in China, will be the lead underwriter on the deal.\nIn September 2016, the IMF included the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket, giving China a seat at the monetary table.\nSo, the framework has been created to expand the SDR’s scope.\nThe SDR can be issued in abundance to IMF members and used in the future for a select list of the most important transactions in the world, including balance-of-payments settlements, oil pricing, and the financial accounts of the world’s largest corporations, such as Exxon Mobil, Toyota, and Royal Dutch Shell.\nThe basic idea behind the SDR is that theglobal monetary system centered around the dollar is inherently unstableand needs to be reformed.\nPart of the problem is due to a process called Triffin’s Dilemma, named after economist Robert Triffin. Triffin said that the issuer of a dominant reserve currency had to run trade deficits so that the rest of the world could have enough of the currency to buy goods from the issuer and expand world trade.\nBut, if you run deficits long enough, you would eventually go broke. This was said about the dollar in the early 1960s. The SDR would solve Triffin’s Dilemma.\nI wrote about SDRs and the global elite plans for them in the second chapter of my 2016 book, The Road to Ruin.\nOver the next several years, we will see the issuance of SDRs to transnational organizations, such as the U.N. and World Bank, for spending on climate change infrastructure and other elite pet projects outside the supervision of any democratically elected bodies.\nI call this the New Blueprint for Worldwide Inflation.\nBut Triffin’s Dilemma is not the only dynamic that’s pushing the world away from the dollar.\nIn Part 2, we show you why the weaponization of the dollar by the U.S. government is pushing the world to seek alternatives.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126004392,"gmtCreate":1624535737916,"gmtModify":1703839636470,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126004392","repostId":"1147933628","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147933628","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624517042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147933628?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 14:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Working On A 'Journalism Project' With New York Magazine","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147933628","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Apple Inc is working with New York Magazine in a journalism project with connections to Apple News, ","content":"<div>\n<p>Apple Inc is working with New York Magazine in a journalism project with connections to Apple News, David Hasell, the Editor-in-Chief of New York Magazine revealed in a WWDinterviewthis week.\nWhat ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21697256/apple-working-on-a-journalism-project-with-new-york-magazine\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Working On A 'Journalism Project' With New York Magazine</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ 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.h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Working On A 'Journalism Project' With New York Magazine\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 14:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21697256/apple-working-on-a-journalism-project-with-new-york-magazine><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple Inc is working with New York Magazine in a journalism project with connections to Apple News, David Hasell, the Editor-in-Chief of New York Magazine revealed in a WWDinterviewthis week.\nWhat ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21697256/apple-working-on-a-journalism-project-with-new-york-magazine\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NYT":"纽约时报","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/06/21697256/apple-working-on-a-journalism-project-with-new-york-magazine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147933628","content_text":"Apple Inc is working with New York Magazine in a journalism project with connections to Apple News, David Hasell, the Editor-in-Chief of New York Magazine revealed in a WWDinterviewthis week.\nWhat Happened:Hasell was asked if Apple News helped the magazine’s focus on subscriptions even though it did not help the New York Times Co.\n“We’re working with Apple right now on a journalism project together and that has unlocked some opportunities for us,” said Hasell.\n“It seems to be fairly consistent with the larger strategy of thinking about this place as a subscription business, but I don’t think Apple News has been a game changer for us.”\nApple Shares closed 0.21% lower at $133.70 in the regular session on Wednesday.\nWhy It Matters:This month, it was reported that the German competition authority has begun an investigation into Apple rival and Alphabet Inc subsidiary Google’s News Showcase platform.\nThe inquiry’s mandate is to ensure there is no discrimination between individual publishers.\nEarlier this year, Google threatened todeprive Australians of its search engineif the government went ahead with implementing a law that would have forced it to pay local media for content.\nThe search engine giant later rolled out itsNews Showcase Platformin Australia in an effort to bypass the law.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"NYT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126005430,"gmtCreate":1624535723020,"gmtModify":1703839635812,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Hi&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126005430","repostId":"1138132786","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126003456,"gmtCreate":1624535415375,"gmtModify":1703839628116,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gd&nbsp;","listText":"Gd&nbsp;","text":"Gd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126003456","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":159864502,"gmtCreate":1624956617306,"gmtModify":1703848789159,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like like Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like like Like&nbsp;","text":"Like like Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159864502","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":157218827,"gmtCreate":1625583123969,"gmtModify":1703744414082,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nooo","listText":"Nooo","text":"Nooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/157218827","repostId":"1150315172","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150315172","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625582925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1150315172?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-06 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oil Slips as OPEC+ Uncertainty Raises Concerns of Oversupply","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150315172","media":"Bloomberg","summary":" -- Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.West Texas Intermediate futures for August fell as much as 1.3% in New York. With the collapse of talks on Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t boost output in August, unless an agreement can be salvaged. The lack of OPEC+ unity could invite new barrels to the market and spell beari","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.</p>\n<p>West Texas Intermediate futures for August fell as much as 1.3% in New York. With the collapse of talks on Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t boost output in August, unless an agreement can be salvaged. The lack of OPEC+ unity could invite new barrels to the market and spell bearish news for current prices, said Tom Finlon of Brownsville GTR LLC, a trading and logistics firm based in Houston.</p>\n<p>“I think if you have 23 oil-producing countries that are party to an agreement, and that agreement isn’t extended, and the price of crude is in the mid-70s, that’s an engraved invitation to overproduce,” said Finlon.</p>\n<p>Oil prices have rallied this year, as vaccination rates and economic reopening around the world have spurred fuel consumption. The extent to which the rally continues depends largely on OPEC+ ability to reach an agreement to limit output.</p>\n<p>Tuesday’s decline cames as most commodity and stock markets fell and the dollar edged higher.</p>\n<p>Discussions among the alliance dissolved acrimoniously as the United Arab Emirates blocked a proposal led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. While the situation is fluid and negotiations could be reactivated, the breakdown has damaged the group’s image as a responsible steward of the market.</p>\n<p>WTI earlier hit the highest since November 2014, as the breakdown in talks left the market without the extra supplies for next month it had been counting on. Analysts from Citigroup Inc. to UBS Group AG warned that withholding extra supplies as demand recovers rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic will push prices higher.</p>\n<p>A repeat of last year’s destructive price war, which sent oil crashing, is also no longer a “negligible” prospect, Goldman warned.</p>\n<p>“If there’s any indication that the UAE folks are adding barrels, there’s a chance, probably a good chance that others within the producer group will try and beat them to the punch,” said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.</p>\n<p>Oil and Dollars: Why the UAE Is Risking a Falling-Out With OPEC+</p>\n<p>Oil’s rally has been accompanied by sharp moves in price spreads between monthly contracts, an indication that traders see supply conditions growing tighter. The premium of Brent’s November contract over December jumped to 81 cents a barrel from 73 cents on Friday.</p>\n<p>The 23-nation OPEC+ coalition had been on the brink of an agreement to restore production halted during the pandemic, in monthly increments of 400,000 barrels a day. That plan could still be ratified, or members may choose to informally leak barrels to eager consumers.</p>\n<p>“A compromise will be reached which should allow additional barrels into the market from August,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank A/S. “The political pressure from large consumers such as India and China will grow, with Washington probably also adding some pressure.”</p>\n<p>Traders will also look to crude and gasoline inventories in the U.S. last week for signals about demand in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, in the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute report released later Tuesday.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil Slips as OPEC+ Uncertainty Raises Concerns of Oversupply</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil Slips as OPEC+ Uncertainty Raises Concerns of Oversupply\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-06 22:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-price-jumps-six-074615967.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.\nWest Texas ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-price-jumps-six-074615967.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-price-jumps-six-074615967.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150315172","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Oil in New York edged lower amid concerns that OPEC+’s failure to ratify an agreement may lead producers to lose the discipline they have maintained against rising demand.\nWest Texas Intermediate futures for August fell as much as 1.3% in New York. With the collapse of talks on Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies won’t boost output in August, unless an agreement can be salvaged. The lack of OPEC+ unity could invite new barrels to the market and spell bearish news for current prices, said Tom Finlon of Brownsville GTR LLC, a trading and logistics firm based in Houston.\n“I think if you have 23 oil-producing countries that are party to an agreement, and that agreement isn’t extended, and the price of crude is in the mid-70s, that’s an engraved invitation to overproduce,” said Finlon.\nOil prices have rallied this year, as vaccination rates and economic reopening around the world have spurred fuel consumption. The extent to which the rally continues depends largely on OPEC+ ability to reach an agreement to limit output.\nTuesday’s decline cames as most commodity and stock markets fell and the dollar edged higher.\nDiscussions among the alliance dissolved acrimoniously as the United Arab Emirates blocked a proposal led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. While the situation is fluid and negotiations could be reactivated, the breakdown has damaged the group’s image as a responsible steward of the market.\nWTI earlier hit the highest since November 2014, as the breakdown in talks left the market without the extra supplies for next month it had been counting on. Analysts from Citigroup Inc. to UBS Group AG warned that withholding extra supplies as demand recovers rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic will push prices higher.\nA repeat of last year’s destructive price war, which sent oil crashing, is also no longer a “negligible” prospect, Goldman warned.\n“If there’s any indication that the UAE folks are adding barrels, there’s a chance, probably a good chance that others within the producer group will try and beat them to the punch,” said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities.\nOil and Dollars: Why the UAE Is Risking a Falling-Out With OPEC+\nOil’s rally has been accompanied by sharp moves in price spreads between monthly contracts, an indication that traders see supply conditions growing tighter. The premium of Brent’s November contract over December jumped to 81 cents a barrel from 73 cents on Friday.\nThe 23-nation OPEC+ coalition had been on the brink of an agreement to restore production halted during the pandemic, in monthly increments of 400,000 barrels a day. That plan could still be ratified, or members may choose to informally leak barrels to eager consumers.\n“A compromise will be reached which should allow additional barrels into the market from August,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank A/S. “The political pressure from large consumers such as India and China will grow, with Washington probably also adding some pressure.”\nTraders will also look to crude and gasoline inventories in the U.S. last week for signals about demand in the world’s biggest oil-consuming country, in the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute report released later Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155445492,"gmtCreate":1625450805116,"gmtModify":1703741935649,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155445492","repostId":"2149386731","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149386731","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1625449517,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149386731?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-05 09:45","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"Growth in China's June services activity falls to 14-month low","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149386731","media":"Reuters","summary":"BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - Growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month l","content":"<p>BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - Growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month low, weighed down by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in southern China, a private survey showed on Monday, adding to concerns the world's second-largest economy may be starting to lose some momentum.</p>\n<p>The Caixin/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services Purchasing Managers' Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PMI.UK\">$(PMI.UK)$</a> fell to 50.3 in June, the lowest since April 2020 and down significantly from 55.1 in May. It held just above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.</p>\n<p>China's official services gauge had also shown a marked slowdown in June, though it remained well in expansion territory. The private survey is believed to focus more on smaller companies.</p>\n<p>Coupled with a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, analysts say the PMI survey findings suggest that pent-up COVID demand may have peaked and China's robust economic rebound from the crisis is starting to moderate.</p>\n<p>Though slower to recover from the pandemic than manufacturing, a gradual improvement in consumption in recent months had boosted China's services sector.</p>\n<p>However, a COVID-19 outbreak of the more infectious Delta strain in the export and manufacturing hub of Guangdong since late May and the subsequent imposition of anti-virus measures have weighed on consumer and business activity.</p>\n<p>While the government reacted quickly to contain the new wave of cases, and economic disruptions are easing, the private survey showed services providers' business outlook for the year ahead slipped to the lowest in nine months.</p>\n<p>A sub-index of new business stood at 50.5, also the lowest since April 2020 when the services sector was still mired in COVID paralysis. Firms also cut staff in June for the first time in four months, as a result of slowing demand.</p>\n<p>One bright spot in the survey was a marked easing in inflationary pressures, which have squeezed profit margins. Input costs rose at the slowest pace since September 2020, and services firms cut their prices charged for the first time in 11 months to win new business.</p>\n<p>Caixin's June composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to a 14-month low of 50.6 from May's 53.8.</p>\n<p>\"The manufacturing industry has returned to normal in the wake of the epidemic, while the services industry is still sensitive to regional resurgences,\" said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.</p>\n<p>\"In addition, the low base effect from last year will continue to weaken in the second half of this year. Inflationary pressure, intertwined with the economic slowdown, will still be a serious challenge.\"</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Growth in China's June services activity falls to 14-month low</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrowth in China's June services activity falls to 14-month low\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-05 09:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - Growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month low, weighed down by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in southern China, a private survey showed on Monday, adding to concerns the world's second-largest economy may be starting to lose some momentum.</p>\n<p>The Caixin/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> services Purchasing Managers' Index <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PMI.UK\">$(PMI.UK)$</a> fell to 50.3 in June, the lowest since April 2020 and down significantly from 55.1 in May. It held just above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.</p>\n<p>China's official services gauge had also shown a marked slowdown in June, though it remained well in expansion territory. The private survey is believed to focus more on smaller companies.</p>\n<p>Coupled with a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, analysts say the PMI survey findings suggest that pent-up COVID demand may have peaked and China's robust economic rebound from the crisis is starting to moderate.</p>\n<p>Though slower to recover from the pandemic than manufacturing, a gradual improvement in consumption in recent months had boosted China's services sector.</p>\n<p>However, a COVID-19 outbreak of the more infectious Delta strain in the export and manufacturing hub of Guangdong since late May and the subsequent imposition of anti-virus measures have weighed on consumer and business activity.</p>\n<p>While the government reacted quickly to contain the new wave of cases, and economic disruptions are easing, the private survey showed services providers' business outlook for the year ahead slipped to the lowest in nine months.</p>\n<p>A sub-index of new business stood at 50.5, also the lowest since April 2020 when the services sector was still mired in COVID paralysis. Firms also cut staff in June for the first time in four months, as a result of slowing demand.</p>\n<p>One bright spot in the survey was a marked easing in inflationary pressures, which have squeezed profit margins. Input costs rose at the slowest pace since September 2020, and services firms cut their prices charged for the first time in 11 months to win new business.</p>\n<p>Caixin's June composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to a 14-month low of 50.6 from May's 53.8.</p>\n<p>\"The manufacturing industry has returned to normal in the wake of the epidemic, while the services industry is still sensitive to regional resurgences,\" said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.</p>\n<p>\"In addition, the low base effect from last year will continue to weaken in the second half of this year. Inflationary pressure, intertwined with the economic slowdown, will still be a serious challenge.\"</p>\n<p>(Reporting by Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149386731","content_text":"BEIJING, July 5 (Reuters) - Growth in China's services sector slowed sharply in June to a 14-month low, weighed down by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in southern China, a private survey showed on Monday, adding to concerns the world's second-largest economy may be starting to lose some momentum.\nThe Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index $(PMI.UK)$ fell to 50.3 in June, the lowest since April 2020 and down significantly from 55.1 in May. It held just above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis.\nChina's official services gauge had also shown a marked slowdown in June, though it remained well in expansion territory. The private survey is believed to focus more on smaller companies.\nCoupled with a slowdown in the manufacturing sector, analysts say the PMI survey findings suggest that pent-up COVID demand may have peaked and China's robust economic rebound from the crisis is starting to moderate.\nThough slower to recover from the pandemic than manufacturing, a gradual improvement in consumption in recent months had boosted China's services sector.\nHowever, a COVID-19 outbreak of the more infectious Delta strain in the export and manufacturing hub of Guangdong since late May and the subsequent imposition of anti-virus measures have weighed on consumer and business activity.\nWhile the government reacted quickly to contain the new wave of cases, and economic disruptions are easing, the private survey showed services providers' business outlook for the year ahead slipped to the lowest in nine months.\nA sub-index of new business stood at 50.5, also the lowest since April 2020 when the services sector was still mired in COVID paralysis. Firms also cut staff in June for the first time in four months, as a result of slowing demand.\nOne bright spot in the survey was a marked easing in inflationary pressures, which have squeezed profit margins. Input costs rose at the slowest pace since September 2020, and services firms cut their prices charged for the first time in 11 months to win new business.\nCaixin's June composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to a 14-month low of 50.6 from May's 53.8.\n\"The manufacturing industry has returned to normal in the wake of the epidemic, while the services industry is still sensitive to regional resurgences,\" said Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.\n\"In addition, the low base effect from last year will continue to weaken in the second half of this year. Inflationary pressure, intertwined with the economic slowdown, will still be a serious challenge.\"\n(Reporting by Stella Qiu and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126005430,"gmtCreate":1624535723020,"gmtModify":1703839635812,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Hi&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/126005430","repostId":"1138132786","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155473758,"gmtCreate":1625451013674,"gmtModify":1703741942613,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok&nbsp;","listText":"ok&nbsp;","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155473758","repostId":"1124717185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124717185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625371001,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1124717185?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-04 11:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's How The Laws Of Supply And Demand Lead To Major Moves For Growth Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124717185","media":"investors","summary":"The laws of supply and demand seem simple on their face, but understanding the subtle nuances is key","content":"<p>The laws of supply and demand seem simple on their face, but understanding the subtle nuances is key for stock investors who want to take advantage of major price moves.</p>\n<p>Supply and demand is one of the bedrock principles of business and economics. A simple recent example is how the price of lumber skyrocketed amid Covid-related shortages.</p>\n<p>In the stock market, the companies seen as the best positioned by big money will see their share price driven higher as demand ramps up. When this happens, supply will also be constricted, as holders will be more reluctant to sell their shares. Thus, supply and demand is the S in IBD'sCAN SLIM investing method, and the subject of the fourth in an Investor's Corner series.</p>\n<p>Legendary IBD founder William O'Neil, writing in his classic tome, \"How to Make Money in Stocks,\" said supply and demand is \"more important than the opinions of all the analysts on Wall Street, no matter what schools they attended, what degrees they earned, or how high their IQs.\"</p>\n<p>Float Size Matters</p>\n<p>A key point to bear in mind is whether the stock you are eying has a large or a small float: the number of shares available for trading. Getting locked into a stock with a small supply of shares means you can be taken on wild rides, both on the upside and the downside.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, investing in a big-cap name with a massive amount of shares outstanding means it is much more difficult for that stock to make big moves. On the plus side, this can also be less stressful on one's stomach.</p>\n<p>The ideal is to find a happy medium — a stock that boasts strong earnings growth, and one that is still expanding by offering new products and services. Also look for one that is attracting the attention of institutional investors. Nevertheless, stocks of companies with any size of capitalization can be bought byCAN SLIM investors.</p>\n<p>Other encouraging signs to look for are companies that are buying back their stock, which reduces the supply of shares in the market.</p>\n<p>How do you measure demand?</p>\n<p>As is often the case when researching a stock, charts are key. Look at the average daily trading volume. Days where the number of shares traded is much higher, or lower, than normal are a key indicator.</p>\n<p>When a share price spikes in big trading volume, this is a clear sign of institutional demand. It is a key indicator that mutual fund managers and other big money buyers, who account for most trading in the stock market, are snapping up a stock. This sort of accumulation is the main driver for big price moves.</p>\n<p>Piggybacking on such action is a proven way for the intelligent investor to succeed. But make sure to carefully study price charts to find stocks that arebreaking out of proper basesor rebounding from key chart levels. When a stock tops abuy point, ideally volume will be at least 40% above average.</p>\n<p>The IBD Stock Checkup is another key tool. Under the supply and demand section, you'll find pass or fail ratings for all key related criteria.</p>\n<p>That includes information on a stock's market capitalization and itsAccumulation/Distribution Rating, which gauges institutional buying and selling over the previous 13 weeks. Also, the percentage change in funds owning a stock and the number of quarters of increasing fund ownership. Look for stocks flashing green lights in all of these areas.</p>","source":"lsy1610449120050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's How The Laws Of Supply And Demand Lead To Major Moves For Growth Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's How The Laws Of Supply And Demand Lead To Major Moves For Growth Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-04 11:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/heres-how-the-laws-of-supply-and-demand-lead-to-major-moves-for-growth-stocks/?src=A00220><strong>investors</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The laws of supply and demand seem simple on their face, but understanding the subtle nuances is key for stock investors who want to take advantage of major price moves.\nSupply and demand is one of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/heres-how-the-laws-of-supply-and-demand-lead-to-major-moves-for-growth-stocks/?src=A00220\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investors.com/how-to-invest/investors-corner/heres-how-the-laws-of-supply-and-demand-lead-to-major-moves-for-growth-stocks/?src=A00220","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124717185","content_text":"The laws of supply and demand seem simple on their face, but understanding the subtle nuances is key for stock investors who want to take advantage of major price moves.\nSupply and demand is one of the bedrock principles of business and economics. A simple recent example is how the price of lumber skyrocketed amid Covid-related shortages.\nIn the stock market, the companies seen as the best positioned by big money will see their share price driven higher as demand ramps up. When this happens, supply will also be constricted, as holders will be more reluctant to sell their shares. Thus, supply and demand is the S in IBD'sCAN SLIM investing method, and the subject of the fourth in an Investor's Corner series.\nLegendary IBD founder William O'Neil, writing in his classic tome, \"How to Make Money in Stocks,\" said supply and demand is \"more important than the opinions of all the analysts on Wall Street, no matter what schools they attended, what degrees they earned, or how high their IQs.\"\nFloat Size Matters\nA key point to bear in mind is whether the stock you are eying has a large or a small float: the number of shares available for trading. Getting locked into a stock with a small supply of shares means you can be taken on wild rides, both on the upside and the downside.\nOn the other hand, investing in a big-cap name with a massive amount of shares outstanding means it is much more difficult for that stock to make big moves. On the plus side, this can also be less stressful on one's stomach.\nThe ideal is to find a happy medium — a stock that boasts strong earnings growth, and one that is still expanding by offering new products and services. Also look for one that is attracting the attention of institutional investors. Nevertheless, stocks of companies with any size of capitalization can be bought byCAN SLIM investors.\nOther encouraging signs to look for are companies that are buying back their stock, which reduces the supply of shares in the market.\nHow do you measure demand?\nAs is often the case when researching a stock, charts are key. Look at the average daily trading volume. Days where the number of shares traded is much higher, or lower, than normal are a key indicator.\nWhen a share price spikes in big trading volume, this is a clear sign of institutional demand. It is a key indicator that mutual fund managers and other big money buyers, who account for most trading in the stock market, are snapping up a stock. This sort of accumulation is the main driver for big price moves.\nPiggybacking on such action is a proven way for the intelligent investor to succeed. But make sure to carefully study price charts to find stocks that arebreaking out of proper basesor rebounding from key chart levels. When a stock tops abuy point, ideally volume will be at least 40% above average.\nThe IBD Stock Checkup is another key tool. Under the supply and demand section, you'll find pass or fail ratings for all key related criteria.\nThat includes information on a stock's market capitalization and itsAccumulation/Distribution Rating, which gauges institutional buying and selling over the previous 13 weeks. Also, the percentage change in funds owning a stock and the number of quarters of increasing fund ownership. Look for stocks flashing green lights in all of these areas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155442500,"gmtCreate":1625450767300,"gmtModify":1703741934163,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nooooo","listText":"Nooooo","text":"Nooooo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155442500","repostId":"1169840279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159866468,"gmtCreate":1624956454154,"gmtModify":1703848784467,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159866468","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127005897,"gmtCreate":1624800073919,"gmtModify":1703845304112,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beeeeebooop","listText":"Beeeeebooop","text":"Beeeeebooop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127005897","repostId":"2146070550","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155447760,"gmtCreate":1625450876950,"gmtModify":1703741938471,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/155447760","repostId":"2149383083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149383083","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1625437372,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149383083?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-05 06:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Biden administration provides assistance on ransomware attacks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149383083","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is assisting victims of the ransomware attack tha","content":"<p>WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is assisting victims of the ransomware attack that has hit hundreds of American businesses \"based upon an assessment of national risk,\" a top cybersecurity official to President Joe Biden said on Sunday.</p>\n<p>In a statement, Anne Neuberger said that \"anyone who believes their systems have been compromised\" should report the incident immediately.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Biden administration provides assistance on ransomware attacks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBiden administration provides assistance on ransomware attacks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-05 06:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is assisting victims of the ransomware attack that has hit hundreds of American businesses \"based upon an assessment of national risk,\" a top cybersecurity official to President Joe Biden said on Sunday.</p>\n<p>In a statement, Anne Neuberger said that \"anyone who believes their systems have been compromised\" should report the incident immediately.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149383083","content_text":"WASHINGTON, July 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. government is assisting victims of the ransomware attack that has hit hundreds of American businesses \"based upon an assessment of national risk,\" a top cybersecurity official to President Joe Biden said on Sunday.\nIn a statement, Anne Neuberger said that \"anyone who believes their systems have been compromised\" should report the incident immediately.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127005200,"gmtCreate":1624800106000,"gmtModify":1703845304758,"author":{"id":"3581848017506158","authorId":"3581848017506158","name":"jaaaa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dbca4ead7ca20a3e4a1770a8655691","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581848017506158","idStr":"3581848017506158"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi Hi&nbsp;","listText":"Hi Hi&nbsp;","text":"Hi Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127005200","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117734317?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>\n <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>\n <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>\n <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>\n <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p>\n<p>On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p>\n<p>However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p>\n<p>In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p>\n<p><b>Overview</b></p>\n<p>SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p>\n<p>As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p>\n<p>Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p>\n<p>This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p>\n<p>However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p>\n<p><b>Quantitative</b></p>\n<p>Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p>\n<p>It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p>\n<p>Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p>\n<p>However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p>\n<p>For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p>\n<p>As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p>\n<p>Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p>\n<p>On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p>\n<p>This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p>\n<p>Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p>\n<p><b>Macro</b></p>\n<p>Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p>\n<p>Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p>\n<p><b>Small Business Environment</b></p>\n<p>SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p>\n<p>The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p>\n<p>Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p>\n<p>Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p>\n<p>Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p>\n<p>Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p>\n<p><b>Small Business Lending</b></p>\n<p>Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p>\n<p>Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p>\n<p>This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p>\n<p>This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p>\n<p>There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p>\n<p>Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p>\n<p>The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p>\n<p>Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p>\n<p>This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p>\n<p>It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p>\n<p>Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p>\n<p>Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p>\n<p><b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p>\n<p>Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p>\n<p>Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p>\n<p>The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p>\n<p>Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p>\n<p>In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p>\n<p>Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin</b></p>\n<p>When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p>\n<p>From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p>\n<p>Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p>\n<p>The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p>\n<p>This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p>\n<p>Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p>\n<p>This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p>\n<p>Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Cash App</b></p>\n<p>On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p>\n<p>However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;\n <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p>\n<p>The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>April 12-18 2020</li>\n <li>January 24-30 2021</li>\n</ul>\n<p>These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p>\n<p>Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p>\n<p>It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p>\n<blockquote>\n ... has at least\n <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p>\n<p>Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p>\n<p><b>Technicals</b></p>\n<p>Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p>\n<p>When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p>\n<p>From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p>\n<p>Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p>\n<p>Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p>\n<p>Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p>\n<p><b>Price Targets</b></p>\n<p>On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p>\n<p>However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p>\n<p>I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p>\n<p>If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p>\n<p>The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p>\n<p>If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p>\n<p>Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p>\n<p>Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<p>SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p>\n<p>From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p>\n<p>Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 10:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}