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2021-04-27

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Dushulang Education Holdings submitted a listing application to the HKEx

2021-05-16

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2021-05-12

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Li Auto continued to pull up more than 8%, leading the new energy vehicle sector

2022-05-22

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2021-06-19

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The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.

2021-06-19

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The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.

2022-06-05

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The height of prosperity? How far can American consumption go?

2022-06-04

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Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, and Feng Liu captured top-performing stocks in Q2! Some stocks heavily held by private equity firms worth tens of billions of yuan also plummeted.

2022-06-04

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2022-06-04

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Is Netflix's moat becoming its ceiling as its "flywheel" slows down?

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Is Investing $32 Billion to Become a Content Powerhouse: Is This Stock Set to Soar?","htmlText":"The Walt Disney Company<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a> (DIS-1.98%)is home to some of the most popular content franchises in the world. 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At the pandemic's onset, the company's hands got tied behind its back as it was forced to close its theme parks, stop content production, and pause movie theater releases.As business restrictions have eased, The House of Mouse is getting back to full strength, including revving up its content engine. Indeed, management estimates it will spend $32 billion on content in 2022.A surge in content spending could lead to a subscriber boomOne-third of the $32 billion content budget will be spent on sports. The remainder is an enterprise-wide budget, meaning the content created will appear across itsvarious media properties, including Disne","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1bb5d75c463d82983fb67a2654ce44da","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059454188","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059722076,"gmtCreate":1654438625895,"gmtModify":1676535447538,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gu","listText":"Gu","text":"Gu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059722076","repostId":"1111513232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111513232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654406018,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111513232?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-05 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The height of prosperity? How far can American consumption go?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111513232","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"眼下，政策退潮大势所趋，就业市场景气犹在，消费“繁荣”能否延续？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Zhao Wei and Cao Jinqiu, Guojin Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p><b>The \"surface\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</b></p><p><b>Overall, U.S. private consumption expenditures and retail sales data for April were very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, private consumption in the United States suffered a severe blow, with the nominal year-on-year growth rate once falling to -16.1%. With the U.S. government implementing large-scale financial subsidies for residents and the economic impact of the pandemic weakening, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. private consumption rose to 6% in April, far exceeding the nearly 10-year average of 3.9%. Meanwhile, another important consumption indicator, the compound annual growth rate of retail sales, rose to 9.9% in April, which is also far higher than the average level of the past 10 years.</p><p><b>Structurally, goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</b>In terms of commodities, the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell to 13.3%, which remained high, while the compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was 8.1%, which also remained high. Among them, apart from a few products such as home appliances, the consumption of the vast majority of goods was very strong. Compared to goods, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery. Looking at different industries, consumption such as medical care has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, but catering, accommodation, and entertainment consumption have not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><b>The \"truth\" of actual consumption in the United States? Goods consumption declined from its peak, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery.</b></p><p><b>Historically, nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been largely consistent, but recently there has been a clear divergence.</b>The persistently high inflation readings in the United States have clearly disrupted the robust relationship between nominal and real consumption trends, leading to a significant divergence between the two. After adjusting for inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption in the United States in April was 2.5%, slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic. In terms of retail sales. After adjusting for inflation, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, also slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic.</p><p><b>Structurally, actual commodity consumption has fallen from its high level but remains high, while service consumption maintains a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>Despite high inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of durable goods in the United States in April was 9.5%, still higher than the average level of 6.1% over the 10 years before the pandemic. The compound annual growth rates of automobiles and building materials were all at historical lows. In the non-durable goods sector, the compound annual growth rate was 4.1%, which was also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, the compound annual growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p><b>What is the future of American consumption? Service consumption plays a major role, but the \"erosive effect\" of inflation warrants vigilance.</b></p><p><b>With better-than-expected wage increases and employment recovery, as well as a recovery in business scenarios, service consumption is expected to grow and support overall consumption. However, attention should be paid to the continued accumulation of service inflation pressures.</b>As a leading indicator of service consumption in the United States, wage increases and job recovery have continued to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous cycle. With the epidemic receding, whether service consumption such as leisure and entertainment can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will be a \"touchstone\" for testing the quality of consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of a receding tide of stimulus and rate hike, the pre-emption of durable goods consumption may be nearing its end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the \"erosive effect\" of inflation.</b>Post-pandemic durable goods consumption in the United States has shown significant pre-emptive characteristics, with \"excess\" consumption potentially exceeding $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Against the backdrop of receding stimulus and rate hike, demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles may be suppressed. Regarding non-durable goods, rigid demand may support stable consumption, but we need to be wary of the increasingly prominent \"erosive effect\" of high inflation on non-durable goods.</p><p>Main text:</p><p>1. The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</p><p><b>Overall, U.S. April private consumption expenditures and the latest April retail sales...</b>①<b>The data and performance are both very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, private consumption, as the \"ballast\" of the US economy, suffered a severe blow, with the nominal year-on-year growth rate once falling to -16.1%. With the U.S. government implementing large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the pandemic on the economy weakening, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. private consumption② has recovered to an extremely high level of 6%, far exceeding the average of 3.9% over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, another important consumption indicator, the compound annual growth rate of retail sales, rose to 9.9% in April, also far higher than the average of 4.3% over the past 10 years.</p><p>① Private consumption is a measure of consumer spending by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is a more comprehensive indicator of consumer spending than retail sales and the largest component of GDP (accounting for about 70%). Retail sales are survey data obtained by the U.S. Business Census Bureau through interviews with thousands of retailers, primarily reflecting changes in nominal consumption (mainly goods consumption).</p><p>② To eliminate the interference of the base effect, the data for 2021 and subsequent years are based on the data for the same period in 2019, and then the compound annual growth rate is calculated, the same below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a00fdddba22296419e080671efcce\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21500bfb02edb9bb0cd689da22576615\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On the commodity side, the growth rate of durable goods consumption slowed down but remained high, while the growth rate of non-durable goods consumption continued to recover.</b>Commodity consumption can be further broken down into durable goods and non-durable goods consumption. The former mainly includes goods such as automobiles, furniture, and home appliances that generally have a service life of more than 3 years, while the latter mainly includes relatively consumable goods such as food, clothing, and energy products. Specifically, data from April shows that the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell from a previous high of 20% to 13.3%, which remains at a high level; The compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption reached as high as 8.1%. Against the backdrop of continued expansion in commodity consumption, the proportion of durable goods and non-durable goods consumption in private consumption increased from 11% and 20% before the pandemic to 13% and 22%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b600d905e75b26bd815dd46bf39e3f65\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0785710933970579a74fc15e388436f\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking at the structure, apart from a few items such as home appliances, the consumption of the vast majority of goods was very strong.</b>The retail sales sub-indicator primarily reflects U.S. residents' consumer spending on goods. By structure, motor vehicle and parts stores, storeless retail, daily necessities, and gas station retail sales accounted for 20%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of total retail sales, respectively. Based on retail sales data, apart from a few individual commodities such as home appliances where the retail growth rate was relatively low, the compound annual growth rate of consumption for most commodities such as automobiles, furniture, clothing, and food remained high, basically above 75% of the historical percentile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c2d64e5f153f86fed7e3721cbd225a\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17869c23d4ef58a10040a344306a412d\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1722b188ffe336c69166cab2f474075\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3232273c2b0ef73962a527c14cdb94c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of service consumption, service consumption such as medical care has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, while catering consumption has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.</b>The recurring pandemic in the early stages significantly disrupted the recovery process of service consumption. According to April data, compared to the compound annual growth rate of goods consumption of 9.9%, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery. To provide a more comprehensive picture of service consumption, we use credit card consumption data to capture changes in service consumption items. Credit card spending data shows that spending on repairs and maintenance (family-run) and outpatient healthcare (medical services) has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Food and beverage consumption, etc., has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels because the indoor mask order was lifted relatively late.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce51dab39d446354be1442b3a00818a9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5057371f89a45e8b2c24947d948ffef\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d262cf4300ba4e77efcc2ab8fe1ec45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824422748d70225488b30a02c3281d46\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4d6f9ac13c71a0074592c7a8919351\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. The \"truth\" about actual consumption in the United States? Goods consumption declined from its peak, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery.</p><p><b>Historically, nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been largely consistent, but recently there has been a clear divergence.</b>The persistently high inflation readings in the United States have clearly disrupted the robust relationship between nominal and real consumption trends, leading to a significant divergence between the two. After excluding inflation, real consumption in the United States was not as strong as nominal statistics show. The real compound annual growth rate in April was 2.5%, slightly higher than the average level of 2.2% over the 10 years before the pandemic. After adjusting for inflation, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, also slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5380f9766531eac5ffc32f0c834a9441\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4b11564b1b863d8d25452f8b2b1e01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding durable goods, despite high inflation, the actual consumption of durable goods has fallen sharply behind the impressive nominal data.</b>After adjusting for inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of durable goods in the United States recorded 9.5% in April, a significant drop from the previous high of 18.9%, but still higher than the average level of 6.1% over the 10 years before the pandemic. Structurally, in stark contrast to the nominal growth rate, the real compound annual growth rate of retail sales of major durable goods such as home appliances, furniture, automobiles, and building materials all fell sharply, remaining at the historical percentiles of 30%, 28%, 8%, and 5%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dacea5cb4090d85a9678c7bb963d8c3\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cfe4ff3933fc76ff02e78903c74d60\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712b63ad80c741d1e26e3240603c0ece\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656cd766f77935dce43cb7695066de74\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding non-durable goods, the real consumption growth rate was not as strong as the nominal growth rate, and the overall trend remained stable.</b>After excluding inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of non-durable goods in the United States in April was 4.1%, which was also significantly lower than the previous high of 7.1%, but still higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Historically, unlike durable goods consumption, non-durable goods generally account for just over 20% of actual total consumption because they mostly correspond to rigid consumption demand. Looking at the breakdown data, the actual retail sales of clothing stores, sporting goods stores, and daily necessities stores maintained a basically stable trend year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cf10f55e97d525058774b85d1f1e66\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29d991fbfe58d57edc2927c2fc78e365\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, actual service consumption showed a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>U.S. PCE prices reached 6.3% year-on-year in April, far higher than the average level of less than 2% in previous years. Among them, there is a significant gap in inflationary pressures between goods and services. In April, prices of durable goods and non-durable goods reached 8.4% and 10.1% year-on-year, respectively; In comparison, service prices were \"only\" 4.6% year-on-year. The reason is that, unlike the booming demand for goods, the demand for services was constrained by factors such as the recurring pandemic, and the actual compound annual growth rate was only 0.9%. Among them, apart from the relatively rigid compound annual growth rate of service consumption such as household operations and healthcare remaining positive, the compound annual growth rate of non-essential service consumption such as transportation and entertainment remained in the negative range.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab5b7dada9958b6b1f554aa44b1f68c\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a788270cf5c3fcd9559c13589eb53\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481df1ade1365c9cb0ab6c3c1389017b\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa2f198bf75ba91ce0883d2a6a733d1\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. Where is US consumption headed? Service consumption plays a major role, but the \"erosive effect\" of inflation warrants vigilance.</p><p><b>As a leading indicator of service consumption, wage increases and employment recovery have continued to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous cycle.</b>Historically, the year-on-year trend of total wage income in the United States has kept pace with or slightly outpaced consumption, especially service consumption, which mainly depends on employment prospects. Currently, the number of job openings in the United States has exceeded 10 million for eight consecutive months, indicating that the labor supply has not yet fully met demand. Despite strong recruitment demand, \"post-pandemic trauma\" and other factors will continue to constrain labor supply and exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, forcing companies to significantly increase salaries and hire employees. Strong growth in private payroll income will provide strong support for service consumption.<b>(For a detailed analysis of the U.S. job market, see \"How Far Is the U.S. Recession from the Job Market?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73210cd580833cc7f145d3d9deee9fd4\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41058b422ed72e2da4812046a7b74ff5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca21b2ca421b226252a91c4dce72d128\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d584172e5d7105dd60d2bfbded328ae\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Coupled with the need for a natural recovery in offline consumption after the pandemic, a further recovery in service consumption is expected.</b>With the rapid expansion of commodity consumption, service consumption accounted for 60.6% of total consumption, more than 3 percentage points lower than before the pandemic, indicating considerable room for recovery. More importantly, with the epidemic receding in the United States, whether consumption in services such as leisure and entertainment, catering, and accommodation can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will also be an important perspective for assessing the quality of American consumption. It should also be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures. Learning from history, changes in service-side inflation in the United States often determine the overall level of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77196fac6955c9af8fac0ba78b69226f\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610bf343aa3487bea9028c09b3003fe0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a32bf9eacf293bd27b7e87907c86b42\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23dc2a06fc604b0018ae9f2062017107\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Post-pandemic durable goods consumption has shown significant pre-emptive characteristics. Considering the suppression of related consumer demand by the easing of policies, the high growth in durable goods consumption may be nearing its end.</b>The surge in durable goods consumption in the United States after the pandemic is inseparable from large-scale fiscal subsidies and a low-interest-rate environment. However, based on historical experience, this round of durable goods consumption has a significant pre-emptive characteristic, with \"excess\" durable goods consumption potentially exceeding $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Against the backdrop of fiscal tightening and Federal Reserve rate hike, consumer demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods, especially automobiles, may be suppressed. The \"frenzy\" of pre-ordering durable goods consumption may be nearing its end, and continued monitoring is needed in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3ca31a2507b2c2850aaf776f288855\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2755b915ca591107259626eceb2f1908\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5593acea5df6195474802c29ba8dfda7\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a30af70030661a9b0de075d08b219f\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding non-durable goods, overall consumption may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the increasingly prominent \"erosive effect\" of high inflation on some non-durable goods consumption.</b>Since most of them correspond to rigid consumer demand, the growth rate of durable goods consumption is likely to remain \"lukewarm\". However, it should be noted that the further recovery of service consumption during the peak travel season, coupled with supply constraints, is expected to lead to an increase in oil prices, which may further push up inflation. May gasoline retail price data shows that the CPI for energy commodities is likely to continue to exceed 40% year-on-year. According to a Bank of America consumer survey report, continued energy inflation may have a further \"erosive effect\" on the consumption of some non-durable goods.<b>(For an analysis of oil price trends, please see \"Why are oil prices 'very calm' as the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates again?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a75ea71a790217d6f04f719f4b243fa\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69649389fc34a7a9128d99ed99ee1795\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee463234eb865851d8c689a45f9b54\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e8b078725d2c126b417ab9193a93cdb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>After research, we found that:</b></p><p>(1) Overall, the compound annual growth rate of private consumption expenditure and retail sales in the United States in April reached 6% and 10.6% respectively, both of which were far higher than the average level of the past 10 years. Structurally, the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell to 13.3%, still at a high level, while the compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption reached 8.1%, also maintaining a high level. Compared to goods, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery.</p><p>(2) Historically, the nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been basically the same, but the two have diverged significantly due to the recent disturbance of high inflation readings. Structurally, the compound annual growth rate of actual durable goods and non-durable goods consumption both declined, but remained at historical highs. Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, the compound annual growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p>(3) With better-than-expected increases in residents' wages and employment recovery, as well as scenario recovery, service consumption is expected to grow and is expected to support overall consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures. Against the backdrop of a receding tide of stimulus and rate hike, the pre-emption of durable goods consumption may be nearing its end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the \"erosive effect\" of inflation.</p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p><b>1. The recovery in US service consumption fell short of expectations.</b>Some of the impacts of the pandemic may be long-lasting, thereby reshaping the consumption habits of American residents.</p><p><b>2. Monthly data statistics fluctuate significantly.</b>U.S. private consumption and retail sales data fluctuate significantly in a single month, which may disturb our judgment of future trends.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The height of prosperity? How far can American consumption go?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe height of prosperity? How far can American consumption go?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-05 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Zhao Wei and Cao Jinqiu, Guojin Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p><b>The \"surface\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</b></p><p><b>Overall, U.S. private consumption expenditures and retail sales data for April were very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, private consumption in the United States suffered a severe blow, with the nominal year-on-year growth rate once falling to -16.1%. With the U.S. government implementing large-scale financial subsidies for residents and the economic impact of the pandemic weakening, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. private consumption rose to 6% in April, far exceeding the nearly 10-year average of 3.9%. Meanwhile, another important consumption indicator, the compound annual growth rate of retail sales, rose to 9.9% in April, which is also far higher than the average level of the past 10 years.</p><p><b>Structurally, goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</b>In terms of commodities, the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell to 13.3%, which remained high, while the compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was 8.1%, which also remained high. Among them, apart from a few products such as home appliances, the consumption of the vast majority of goods was very strong. Compared to goods, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery. Looking at different industries, consumption such as medical care has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, but catering, accommodation, and entertainment consumption have not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><b>The \"truth\" of actual consumption in the United States? Goods consumption declined from its peak, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery.</b></p><p><b>Historically, nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been largely consistent, but recently there has been a clear divergence.</b>The persistently high inflation readings in the United States have clearly disrupted the robust relationship between nominal and real consumption trends, leading to a significant divergence between the two. After adjusting for inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption in the United States in April was 2.5%, slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic. In terms of retail sales. After adjusting for inflation, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, also slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic.</p><p><b>Structurally, actual commodity consumption has fallen from its high level but remains high, while service consumption maintains a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>Despite high inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of durable goods in the United States in April was 9.5%, still higher than the average level of 6.1% over the 10 years before the pandemic. The compound annual growth rates of automobiles and building materials were all at historical lows. In the non-durable goods sector, the compound annual growth rate was 4.1%, which was also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, the compound annual growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p><b>What is the future of American consumption? Service consumption plays a major role, but the \"erosive effect\" of inflation warrants vigilance.</b></p><p><b>With better-than-expected wage increases and employment recovery, as well as a recovery in business scenarios, service consumption is expected to grow and support overall consumption. However, attention should be paid to the continued accumulation of service inflation pressures.</b>As a leading indicator of service consumption in the United States, wage increases and job recovery have continued to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous cycle. With the epidemic receding, whether service consumption such as leisure and entertainment can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will be a \"touchstone\" for testing the quality of consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of a receding tide of stimulus and rate hike, the pre-emption of durable goods consumption may be nearing its end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the \"erosive effect\" of inflation.</b>Post-pandemic durable goods consumption in the United States has shown significant pre-emptive characteristics, with \"excess\" consumption potentially exceeding $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Against the backdrop of receding stimulus and rate hike, demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles may be suppressed. Regarding non-durable goods, rigid demand may support stable consumption, but we need to be wary of the increasingly prominent \"erosive effect\" of high inflation on non-durable goods.</p><p>Main text:</p><p>1. The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</p><p><b>Overall, U.S. April private consumption expenditures and the latest April retail sales...</b>①<b>The data and performance are both very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, private consumption, as the \"ballast\" of the US economy, suffered a severe blow, with the nominal year-on-year growth rate once falling to -16.1%. With the U.S. government implementing large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the pandemic on the economy weakening, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. private consumption② has recovered to an extremely high level of 6%, far exceeding the average of 3.9% over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, another important consumption indicator, the compound annual growth rate of retail sales, rose to 9.9% in April, also far higher than the average of 4.3% over the past 10 years.</p><p>① Private consumption is a measure of consumer spending by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is a more comprehensive indicator of consumer spending than retail sales and the largest component of GDP (accounting for about 70%). Retail sales are survey data obtained by the U.S. Business Census Bureau through interviews with thousands of retailers, primarily reflecting changes in nominal consumption (mainly goods consumption).</p><p>② To eliminate the interference of the base effect, the data for 2021 and subsequent years are based on the data for the same period in 2019, and then the compound annual growth rate is calculated, the same below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a00fdddba22296419e080671efcce\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21500bfb02edb9bb0cd689da22576615\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On the commodity side, the growth rate of durable goods consumption slowed down but remained high, while the growth rate of non-durable goods consumption continued to recover.</b>Commodity consumption can be further broken down into durable goods and non-durable goods consumption. The former mainly includes goods such as automobiles, furniture, and home appliances that generally have a service life of more than 3 years, while the latter mainly includes relatively consumable goods such as food, clothing, and energy products. Specifically, data from April shows that the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell from a previous high of 20% to 13.3%, which remains at a high level; The compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption reached as high as 8.1%. Against the backdrop of continued expansion in commodity consumption, the proportion of durable goods and non-durable goods consumption in private consumption increased from 11% and 20% before the pandemic to 13% and 22%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b600d905e75b26bd815dd46bf39e3f65\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0785710933970579a74fc15e388436f\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking at the structure, apart from a few items such as home appliances, the consumption of the vast majority of goods was very strong.</b>The retail sales sub-indicator primarily reflects U.S. residents' consumer spending on goods. By structure, motor vehicle and parts stores, storeless retail, daily necessities, and gas station retail sales accounted for 20%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of total retail sales, respectively. Based on retail sales data, apart from a few individual commodities such as home appliances where the retail growth rate was relatively low, the compound annual growth rate of consumption for most commodities such as automobiles, furniture, clothing, and food remained high, basically above 75% of the historical percentile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c2d64e5f153f86fed7e3721cbd225a\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17869c23d4ef58a10040a344306a412d\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1722b188ffe336c69166cab2f474075\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3232273c2b0ef73962a527c14cdb94c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of service consumption, service consumption such as medical care has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, while catering consumption has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.</b>The recurring pandemic in the early stages significantly disrupted the recovery process of service consumption. According to April data, compared to the compound annual growth rate of goods consumption of 9.9%, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery. To provide a more comprehensive picture of service consumption, we use credit card consumption data to capture changes in service consumption items. Credit card spending data shows that spending on repairs and maintenance (family-run) and outpatient healthcare (medical services) has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Food and beverage consumption, etc., has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels because the indoor mask order was lifted relatively late.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce51dab39d446354be1442b3a00818a9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5057371f89a45e8b2c24947d948ffef\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d262cf4300ba4e77efcc2ab8fe1ec45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824422748d70225488b30a02c3281d46\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4d6f9ac13c71a0074592c7a8919351\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. The \"truth\" about actual consumption in the United States? Goods consumption declined from its peak, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery.</p><p><b>Historically, nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been largely consistent, but recently there has been a clear divergence.</b>The persistently high inflation readings in the United States have clearly disrupted the robust relationship between nominal and real consumption trends, leading to a significant divergence between the two. After excluding inflation, real consumption in the United States was not as strong as nominal statistics show. The real compound annual growth rate in April was 2.5%, slightly higher than the average level of 2.2% over the 10 years before the pandemic. After adjusting for inflation, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, also slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5380f9766531eac5ffc32f0c834a9441\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4b11564b1b863d8d25452f8b2b1e01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding durable goods, despite high inflation, the actual consumption of durable goods has fallen sharply behind the impressive nominal data.</b>After adjusting for inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of durable goods in the United States recorded 9.5% in April, a significant drop from the previous high of 18.9%, but still higher than the average level of 6.1% over the 10 years before the pandemic. Structurally, in stark contrast to the nominal growth rate, the real compound annual growth rate of retail sales of major durable goods such as home appliances, furniture, automobiles, and building materials all fell sharply, remaining at the historical percentiles of 30%, 28%, 8%, and 5%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dacea5cb4090d85a9678c7bb963d8c3\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cfe4ff3933fc76ff02e78903c74d60\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712b63ad80c741d1e26e3240603c0ece\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656cd766f77935dce43cb7695066de74\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding non-durable goods, the real consumption growth rate was not as strong as the nominal growth rate, and the overall trend remained stable.</b>After excluding inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of non-durable goods in the United States in April was 4.1%, which was also significantly lower than the previous high of 7.1%, but still higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Historically, unlike durable goods consumption, non-durable goods generally account for just over 20% of actual total consumption because they mostly correspond to rigid consumption demand. Looking at the breakdown data, the actual retail sales of clothing stores, sporting goods stores, and daily necessities stores maintained a basically stable trend year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cf10f55e97d525058774b85d1f1e66\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29d991fbfe58d57edc2927c2fc78e365\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, actual service consumption showed a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>U.S. PCE prices reached 6.3% year-on-year in April, far higher than the average level of less than 2% in previous years. Among them, there is a significant gap in inflationary pressures between goods and services. In April, prices of durable goods and non-durable goods reached 8.4% and 10.1% year-on-year, respectively; In comparison, service prices were \"only\" 4.6% year-on-year. The reason is that, unlike the booming demand for goods, the demand for services was constrained by factors such as the recurring pandemic, and the actual compound annual growth rate was only 0.9%. Among them, apart from the relatively rigid compound annual growth rate of service consumption such as household operations and healthcare remaining positive, the compound annual growth rate of non-essential service consumption such as transportation and entertainment remained in the negative range.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab5b7dada9958b6b1f554aa44b1f68c\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a788270cf5c3fcd9559c13589eb53\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481df1ade1365c9cb0ab6c3c1389017b\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa2f198bf75ba91ce0883d2a6a733d1\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. Where is US consumption headed? Service consumption plays a major role, but the \"erosive effect\" of inflation warrants vigilance.</p><p><b>As a leading indicator of service consumption, wage increases and employment recovery have continued to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous cycle.</b>Historically, the year-on-year trend of total wage income in the United States has kept pace with or slightly outpaced consumption, especially service consumption, which mainly depends on employment prospects. Currently, the number of job openings in the United States has exceeded 10 million for eight consecutive months, indicating that the labor supply has not yet fully met demand. Despite strong recruitment demand, \"post-pandemic trauma\" and other factors will continue to constrain labor supply and exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, forcing companies to significantly increase salaries and hire employees. Strong growth in private payroll income will provide strong support for service consumption.<b>(For a detailed analysis of the U.S. job market, see \"How Far Is the U.S. Recession from the Job Market?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73210cd580833cc7f145d3d9deee9fd4\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41058b422ed72e2da4812046a7b74ff5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca21b2ca421b226252a91c4dce72d128\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d584172e5d7105dd60d2bfbded328ae\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Coupled with the need for a natural recovery in offline consumption after the pandemic, a further recovery in service consumption is expected.</b>With the rapid expansion of commodity consumption, service consumption accounted for 60.6% of total consumption, more than 3 percentage points lower than before the pandemic, indicating considerable room for recovery. More importantly, with the epidemic receding in the United States, whether consumption in services such as leisure and entertainment, catering, and accommodation can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will also be an important perspective for assessing the quality of American consumption. It should also be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures. Learning from history, changes in service-side inflation in the United States often determine the overall level of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77196fac6955c9af8fac0ba78b69226f\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610bf343aa3487bea9028c09b3003fe0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a32bf9eacf293bd27b7e87907c86b42\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23dc2a06fc604b0018ae9f2062017107\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Post-pandemic durable goods consumption has shown significant pre-emptive characteristics. Considering the suppression of related consumer demand by the easing of policies, the high growth in durable goods consumption may be nearing its end.</b>The surge in durable goods consumption in the United States after the pandemic is inseparable from large-scale fiscal subsidies and a low-interest-rate environment. However, based on historical experience, this round of durable goods consumption has a significant pre-emptive characteristic, with \"excess\" durable goods consumption potentially exceeding $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Against the backdrop of fiscal tightening and Federal Reserve rate hike, consumer demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods, especially automobiles, may be suppressed. The \"frenzy\" of pre-ordering durable goods consumption may be nearing its end, and continued monitoring is needed in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3ca31a2507b2c2850aaf776f288855\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2755b915ca591107259626eceb2f1908\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5593acea5df6195474802c29ba8dfda7\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a30af70030661a9b0de075d08b219f\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding non-durable goods, overall consumption may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the increasingly prominent \"erosive effect\" of high inflation on some non-durable goods consumption.</b>Since most of them correspond to rigid consumer demand, the growth rate of durable goods consumption is likely to remain \"lukewarm\". However, it should be noted that the further recovery of service consumption during the peak travel season, coupled with supply constraints, is expected to lead to an increase in oil prices, which may further push up inflation. May gasoline retail price data shows that the CPI for energy commodities is likely to continue to exceed 40% year-on-year. According to a Bank of America consumer survey report, continued energy inflation may have a further \"erosive effect\" on the consumption of some non-durable goods.<b>(For an analysis of oil price trends, please see \"Why are oil prices 'very calm' as the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates again?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a75ea71a790217d6f04f719f4b243fa\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69649389fc34a7a9128d99ed99ee1795\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee463234eb865851d8c689a45f9b54\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e8b078725d2c126b417ab9193a93cdb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>After research, we found that:</b></p><p>(1) Overall, the compound annual growth rate of private consumption expenditure and retail sales in the United States in April reached 6% and 10.6% respectively, both of which were far higher than the average level of the past 10 years. Structurally, the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell to 13.3%, still at a high level, while the compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption reached 8.1%, also maintaining a high level. Compared to goods, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery.</p><p>(2) Historically, the nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been basically the same, but the two have diverged significantly due to the recent disturbance of high inflation readings. Structurally, the compound annual growth rate of actual durable goods and non-durable goods consumption both declined, but remained at historical highs. Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, the compound annual growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p>(3) With better-than-expected increases in residents' wages and employment recovery, as well as scenario recovery, service consumption is expected to grow and is expected to support overall consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures. Against the backdrop of a receding tide of stimulus and rate hike, the pre-emption of durable goods consumption may be nearing its end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the \"erosive effect\" of inflation.</p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p><b>1. The recovery in US service consumption fell short of expectations.</b>Some of the impacts of the pandemic may be long-lasting, thereby reshaping the consumption habits of American residents.</p><p><b>2. Monthly data statistics fluctuate significantly.</b>U.S. private consumption and retail sales data fluctuate significantly in a single month, which may disturb our judgment of future trends.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661102\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/987ab6715591b2ad7014d2cf9348920e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661102","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1111513232","content_text":"作者：国金证券研究所赵伟、曹金丘摘要：美国名义消费的“表象”？商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及零售销售数据，表现都非常强劲。2020年疫情爆发后，美国私人消费一度遭受重创，名义同比增速一度跌至-16.1%。伴随着美国政府对居民实施大规模财政补贴，以及疫情对经济的影响趋于弱化，美国4月私人消费复合增速升至6%，远超近10年均值的3.9%。同时，另一重要的消费指标，零售销售复合增速在4月升至9.9%，也远高于近10年均值水平。分结构来看，商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后。商品方面，耐用品消费复合增速回落至13.3%，依然处于高位，非耐用品消费复合增速为8.1%，同样维持高位。其中，除了家电等个别商品，绝大部分商品消费都非常亮眼。相比商品，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。分行业来看，医疗护理等消费已经超过疫情前水平，但餐饮住宿、娱乐消费等尚未修复至疫情前水平。美国实际消费的“真相”？商品消费自高位回落，服务消费维持弱复苏从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期出现明显分化。美国通胀读数的持续高企，很明显干扰了名义、实际消费之间走势的稳健关系，导致二者出现了明显分化。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月实际消费复合增速录得2.5%，略超疫情前10年均值水平。零售销售方面。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月零售销售实际同比增速也仅为2.3%，同样略超疫情前10年均值水平。分结构来看，实际商品消费已从高位回落、但依然高企，服务消费维持相对弱复苏态势。通胀高企下，美国4月耐用品实际消费复合增速9.5%，仍高于疫情前10年均值水平的6.1%，汽车、建材等复合增速均处于历史低位。非耐用品方面，复合增速录得4.1%，也高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.1%。相比起商品消费从高位回落，4月实际服务消费复合增速仅录得0.9%，维持相对弱复苏态势。美国消费将何去何从？服务消费“挑大梁”，通胀的“侵蚀效应”需警惕居民薪资提升与就业修复超预期，以及场景修复下，服务消费增长可期、有望支撑整体消费，但需留意服务通胀压力继续累积。作为美国服务消费的领先指标，居民薪资提升与就业修复，持续超预期且已进入良性循环。疫情退潮背景下，休闲娱乐等服务消费的能否在出行旺季获得明显提振，也将是检验消费成色的“试金石”。但需留意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。刺激退潮及加息背景下，耐用品消费前置或行近尾声；非耐用品消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀的“侵蚀效应”。疫后美国耐用品消费前置特征显著，“超额”消费或超4300亿美元，相当于2019年耐用品消费的近3成。刺激退潮及加息背景下，汽车等利率敏感型耐用品的需求，或将受到抑制。非耐用品方面，刚性需求或将支撑消费平稳，但需警惕高通胀对非耐用品的“侵蚀效应”加剧凸显。正文：1、美国名义消费的“表象”？商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及最新的4月零售销售①数据，表现都非常强劲。2020年疫情爆发后，作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费一度遭受重创，名义同比增速一度跌至-16.1%。伴随着美国政府对居民实施大规模财政补贴，以及疫情对经济的影响趋于弱化，美国私人消费复合增速②修复至6%的极高水平，远超近10年均值的3.9%。与此同时，另一重要的消费指标，零售销售复合增速在4月升至9.9%，同样远高于近10年均值水平的4.3%。①私人消费是美国经济分析局对消费者支出的测度，是比零售销售更全面的消费者支出指标，也是GDP的最大组成部分（占比约7成）。零售销售是美国商务普查局通过访问数千家零售商得到的调查数据，主要反映名义消费（主要是商品消费）的变化。②为剔除基数效应的干扰，2021年及以后的数据均以2019年同期数据为基准，进而计算复合增速，下同。商品方面，耐用品消费增速有所回落、但维持高位，非耐用品消费增速持续修复。商品消费，可进一步拆分为耐用品、非耐用品消费，前者主要包括汽车、家具、家电等使用年限一般超过3年的商品，后者主要包括食品、服装、能源品等相对易耗的商品。具体来看，4月数据显示，耐用品消费复合增速从前期20%的高点回落至13.3%，依然处于高位；非耐用品消费复合增速高达8.1%。商品消费持续扩张下的背景下，耐用品、非耐用品消费占私人消费比重，分别从疫情前的11%、20%增长至13%、22%。分结构来看，除了家电等个别商品，绝大部分商品消费都非常亮眼。零售销售分项指标，主要反应美国居民在商品上的消费支出。分结构来看，机动车辆及零部件店、无店铺零售业、日用品、加油站零售额较高，分别占总零售销售比重为20%、16%、12%、9%。基于零售销售数据来看，除了家电等个别商品零售增速增速较低外，汽车、家具、服装、食品等绝大部分商品消费的复合增速维持高位，基本上都处于历史百分位的75%以上。服务消费方面，医疗护理等服务消费已经超过疫情前水平，餐饮消费等尚未修复至疫情前水平。前期疫情反复，明显干扰了服务消费修复进程。从4月数据来看，相比起高达9.9%的商品消费复合增速，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。为了更全面地刻画服务消费，我们使用信用卡消费数据去捕捉服务消费分项变化。信用卡消费数据显示，维修保养（家庭经营）、门诊保健（医疗服务类）消费已经超过疫情前水平。餐饮消费等，因为室内口罩令放开的相对较晚，相关消费活动尚未修复至疫情前水平。2、美国实际消费的“真相”？商品消费自高位回落，服务消费维持弱复苏从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期出现明显分化。美国通胀读数的持续高企，很明显干扰了名义、实际消费之间走势的稳健关系，导致二者出现了明显分化。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国实际消费水平并未如名义统计值那样异常强劲，4月实际复合增速录得2.5%，略高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.2%。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月零售销售实际同比增速也仅为2.3%，同样略超疫情前10年均值水平。耐用品方面，通胀高企下，靓丽的名义数据背后，耐用品实际消费已大幅回落。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月耐用品实际消费复合增速录得9.5%，较前期高点的18.9%大幅回落，不过仍然高于疫情前10年均值水平的6.1%。从结构来看，与名义增速完全相反，家电、家具、汽车、建材等主要耐用品零售额实际复合增速均大幅回落，分别处于历史百分位的30%、28%、8%、5%。非耐用品方面，实际消费增速也不如名义增速般强劲，整体维持平稳态势。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月非耐用品实际消费复合增速录得4.1%，也较前期高点的7.1%明显回落，不过也高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.1%。从历史走势来看，与耐用品消费不同的是，非耐用品由于多对应于刚性消费需求，占实际总消费的比重一般稳定在20%出头。分项数据来看，服装店、运动商品店、日用品商场等实际零售额复合同比，基本上维持平稳走势。相比起商品消费从高位回落，实际服务消费呈现相对弱复苏态势。美国4月PCE物价同比达到6.3%，远高于往年不足2%的平均水平。其中，商品与服务通胀压力差距悬殊。4月耐用品、非耐用品物价同比分别达到8.4%、10.1%；相对而言，服务物价同比“仅为”4.6%。原因在于，不同于火爆的商品消费需求，服务消费需求受到疫情反复等因素的制约，实际复合增速仅仅录得0.9%。其中，除了家庭运营、医疗等相对刚性的服务消费复合同比维持正值，交运、娱乐等非必要的服务消费复合同比仍在负值区间。3、美国消费将何去何从？服务消费“挑大梁”，通胀的“侵蚀效应”需警惕作为服务消费的领先指标，薪资提升与就业修复，持续超预期且已进入良性循环。历史回溯显示，美国薪酬总收入同比的走势同步或弱领先于消费、尤其是服务消费，而前者主要取决于就业景气。目前来看，美国职位空缺数已连续8个月高于1000万个，表明劳动力供给仍没有充分满足需求。旺盛的招工需求下，“疫后创伤”等仍将制约劳动力供给、加剧供需矛盾，使得企业不得不大幅加薪招人。私人薪酬收入维持高增，将对服务消费提供强力支持（关于美国就业市场的详细分析，请参见《从就业市场，看美国衰退有多远？》）。叠加疫后线下消费自然修复的需要等，服务消费进一步复苏可期。商品消费高速扩张下，服务消费占总消费比重下降至60.6%，较疫情前低出超过3个百分点，存在较大的修复空间。更为重要的是，美国疫情退潮背景下，休闲娱乐、餐饮、住宿等服务消费的能否在出行旺季获得明显提振，也将是检验美国消费成色的重要视角。还需注意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。以史为鉴，美国服务端通胀变化，往往决定整体通胀中枢水平。疫后耐用品消费前置特征显著，再考虑到政策退潮对相关消费需求的抑制，耐用品消费高增或行近尾声。美国疫后耐用品消费高增，与大规模财政补贴、低利率环境密不可分。但基于历史经验来看，本轮耐用品消费前置特征显著，“超额”耐用品消费或超4300亿美元，相当于2019年耐用品消费的近3成。财政退潮、美联储加息背景下，尤其是汽车等利率敏感型耐用品的消费需求，或将受到抑制。耐用品消费前置的“狂热”或行近尾声，未来还需持续跟踪。非耐用品方面，整体消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀高企对部分非耐用品消费的“侵蚀效应”加剧凸显。由于大多对应刚性消费需求，耐用品消费增速或将维持“不温不火”。但需注意的是，出行旺季下服务消费的进一步复苏，叠加供给受限，油价上涨可期、或将进一步推升通胀。5月汽油零售价数据显示，CPI能源商品分项同比或将继续超40%。参考美国银行的消费者调查报告来看，持续的能源通胀，可能将对部分非耐用品消费产生进一步的“侵蚀效应”。（关于油价走势研判，请参见《俄乌冲突再升温，油价为何“很淡定”？》）。经过研究，我们发现：（1）整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及零售销售复合增速，分别达到6%、10.6%，均也远高于近10年均值水平。分结构来看，耐用品消费复合增速回落至13.3%，依然处于高位，非耐用品消费复合增速高达8.1%，同样维持高位。相比商品，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。（2）从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期高通胀读数的扰动下，二者出现明显分化。分结构来看，实际耐用品、非耐用品消费复合增速均有所回落，但都仍处于历史高位。相比起商品消费从高位回落，4月实际服务消费复合增速仅录得0.9%，维持相对弱复苏态势。（3）居民薪资提升与就业修复超预期，以及场景修复下，服务消费增长可期、有望支撑整体消费。但需注意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。刺激退潮及加息背景下，耐用品消费前置或行近尾声；非耐用品消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀的“侵蚀效应”。风险提示：1、美国服务消费修复不及预期。疫情带来的部分影响有可能长期化，进而重塑美国居民的消费习惯。2、单月数据统计波动较大。美国私人消费、零售销售数据单月波动较大，有可能会扰动对未来趋势的判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9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AMZN)、Roku(Nasdaq: ROKU)、微軟(Nasdaq: MSFT)，以及網絡安全公司Zscaler(Nasdaq: ZS)。最後一家應該會在短期內看到更多的拋售壓力(等到壓力減輕後再看這一家)。好消息(如果有的話)是，我們正在進入一個尋求長期買入的散戶投資者應該考慮進入市場的時代。如果一個人在尋找中長期價值，沃倫·巴菲特一直是值得聆聽和模仿的先知。巴菲特最近在石油領域買進了雪佛龍(NYSE: CVX)和西方石油公司(NYSE: OXY)。在科技領域，巴菲特買進了動視暴雪(Nasdaq: ATVI)。當與微軟的交易完成時，這隻股票的股價應該會上漲20%或更多。雖然這可能需要長達一年的時間，但12個月的預測正是投資者現在需要關注的投","listText":"目前，標普500指數較1月份創下的歷史高點下跌了20%以上。在這之前的一週，交易員們試圖擺脫一隻飢餓的熊，在這一週，上漲的跡象被證明是不可持續的，是宇宙判斷的短暫失誤。在超過20%的跌幅下，我們確實看到了一個熊市，這個市場見證了標準普爾、道瓊斯和納斯達克指數連續7周下跌。在本週，我預計上週的暴跌會重演，儘管本週五收盤時股指會更低。現在唯一的問題是，市場情緒是否會在本週一和週二推動股指從上週五收盤點位走高，以使投資者能夠在股價不那麼低的情況下出脫部分頭寸。這種推動即使發生了也將是短暫的。到週三，所有的跡象都將指向一個糟糕的週末。如果週一市場更低呢?然後，未來幾個月不可避免的10%—15%的額外下跌將被略微回調，這可能是一件好事。市場越是試圖避開熊市，就會有越多的投資者(包括我自己)可能會進入一些短期交易，希望在他們的在線投資組合中看到更環保的東西。但短期期權或波動交易的時代已經結束:尋找可能進一步下跌但值得永久持有的低價股票的時代真正開始了。如果你打算在明年這個時候之前購買，甚至不用看它們的股價，你可以在這裏看看亞馬遜(Nasdaq: AMZN)、Roku(Nasdaq: ROKU)、微軟(Nasdaq: MSFT)，以及網絡安全公司Zscaler(Nasdaq: ZS)。最後一家應該會在短期內看到更多的拋售壓力(等到壓力減輕後再看這一家)。好消息(如果有的話)是，我們正在進入一個尋求長期買入的散戶投資者應該考慮進入市場的時代。如果一個人在尋找中長期價值，沃倫·巴菲特一直是值得聆聽和模仿的先知。巴菲特最近在石油領域買進了雪佛龍(NYSE: CVX)和西方石油公司(NYSE: OXY)。在科技領域，巴菲特買進了動視暴雪(Nasdaq: ATVI)。當與微軟的交易完成時，這隻股票的股價應該會上漲20%或更多。雖然這可能需要長達一年的時間，但12個月的預測正是投資者現在需要關注的投","text":"目前，標普500指數較1月份創下的歷史高點下跌了20%以上。在這之前的一週，交易員們試圖擺脫一隻飢餓的熊，在這一週，上漲的跡象被證明是不可持續的，是宇宙判斷的短暫失誤。在超過20%的跌幅下，我們確實看到了一個熊市，這個市場見證了標準普爾、道瓊斯和納斯達克指數連續7周下跌。在本週，我預計上週的暴跌會重演，儘管本週五收盤時股指會更低。現在唯一的問題是，市場情緒是否會在本週一和週二推動股指從上週五收盤點位走高，以使投資者能夠在股價不那麼低的情況下出脫部分頭寸。這種推動即使發生了也將是短暫的。到週三，所有的跡象都將指向一個糟糕的週末。如果週一市場更低呢?然後，未來幾個月不可避免的10%—15%的額外下跌將被略微回調，這可能是一件好事。市場越是試圖避開熊市，就會有越多的投資者(包括我自己)可能會進入一些短期交易，希望在他們的在線投資組合中看到更環保的東西。但短期期權或波動交易的時代已經結束:尋找可能進一步下跌但值得永久持有的低價股票的時代真正開始了。如果你打算在明年這個時候之前購買，甚至不用看它們的股價，你可以在這裏看看亞馬遜(Nasdaq: AMZN)、Roku(Nasdaq: ROKU)、微軟(Nasdaq: MSFT)，以及網絡安全公司Zscaler(Nasdaq: ZS)。最後一家應該會在短期內看到更多的拋售壓力(等到壓力減輕後再看這一家)。好消息(如果有的話)是，我們正在進入一個尋求長期買入的散戶投資者應該考慮進入市場的時代。如果一個人在尋找中長期價值，沃倫·巴菲特一直是值得聆聽和模仿的先知。巴菲特最近在石油領域買進了雪佛龍(NYSE: CVX)和西方石油公司(NYSE: OXY)。在科技領域，巴菲特買進了動視暴雪(Nasdaq: ATVI)。當與微軟的交易完成時，這隻股票的股價應該會上漲20%或更多。雖然這可能需要長達一年的時間，但12個月的預測正是投資者現在需要關注的投","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/638e6f4213f3d829415f65c84bcb556b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614083651","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059863616,"gmtCreate":1654331612135,"gmtModify":1676535433024,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gh","listText":"Gh","text":"Gh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059863616","repostId":"1158395460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158395460","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654310619,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158395460?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 10:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, and Feng Liu captured top-performing stocks in Q2! Some stocks heavily held by private equity firms worth tens of billions of yuan also plummeted.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158395460","media":"中国证券报","summary":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛","content":"<p><div>Data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the stocks heavily held by private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan have declined. Among them, hidden heavyweight stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry saw the largest declines. Some private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan suffered heavy losses, with a single heavily held stock resulting in unrealized losses of approximately 100 million yuan. However, Gaoyi's Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu, and Minority Investment, among others, captured the top-performing stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's top holdings surged 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after entering May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, and new energy sectors experiencing significant rebounds. Some hidden heavy holdings of private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter also achieved remarkable performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, and Feng Liu captured top-performing stocks in Q2! Some stocks heavily held by private equity firms worth tens of billions of yuan also plummeted.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, and Feng Liu captured top-performing stocks in Q2! Some stocks heavily held by private equity firms worth tens of billions of yuan also plummeted.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 10:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the stocks heavily held by private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan have declined. Among them, hidden heavyweight stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry saw the largest declines. Some private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan suffered heavy losses, with a single heavily held stock resulting in unrealized losses of approximately 100 million yuan. However, Gaoyi's Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu, and Minority Investment, among others, captured the top-performing stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's top holdings surged 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after entering May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, and new energy sectors experiencing significant rebounds. Some hidden heavy holdings of private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter also achieved remarkable performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","02333":"长城汽车","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158395460","content_text":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛股。邓晓峰重仓股大涨47.59%二季度以来，尤其是进入5月之后，A股市场呈现出反弹趋势，汽车、军工、新能源等反弹幅度较大。一些百亿私募一季度末的隐形重仓股，也取得了不俗的表现。其中，私募大佬高毅邓晓峰，就捕获了一只大牛股华秦科技。资料显示，华秦科技成立于1992年，在今年3月初上市，是一家主要从事特种功能材料的军工企业，业务包括隐身材料、伪装材料及防护材料的研发、生产和销售，产品主要应用于重大国防武器装备如飞机、主战坦克、舰船、导弹等。Wind数据显示，一季度末，邓晓峰管理的高毅晓峰2号致信基金和高毅晓峰鸿远集合资金信托计划分别位列华秦科技的第二和第三大流通股东，分别持有86万股和76万股。二季度以来，华秦科技大涨47.59%。高毅旗下另一位私募大佬冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金，也有一只隐形重仓股龙软科技二季度以来上涨33.18%。龙软科技是一家专注于煤矿基础地理信息系统与专业应用软件开发与销售的煤炭智能开采厂商。高毅邻山1号远望基金自2021年三季度首次进入龙软科技前十大流通股东之列，持股100万股，并一直持有，期间龙软科技股价经历了不小的波动。冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金的另一只隐形重仓股容知日新，是一家专注于工业互联网领域的工业设备智能运维商。自2021年三季度上市以来披露的定期报告显示，高毅邻山1号远望基金一直是该公司的第一大流通股东。二季度以来，该股上涨超过30%。此外，百亿私募少数派投资、玄元投资和宁波宁聚的隐形重仓股冰川网络，二季度以来实现了48.89%的涨幅。玄元投资重仓的建筑材料公司祁连山，二季度以来上涨了29.01%。邓晓峰持有的爱博医疗、源乐晟持有的明月镜片、清和泉持有的立中集团、盘京投资持有的兰花科创，二季度以来都实现了超过20%的涨幅。近六成隐形重仓股下跌不过，几家欢喜几家愁，有一些百亿私募二季度被隐形重仓股大幅拖累。百亿私募重仓的三只医药生物股普利制药、振东制药和诚达药业，二季度以来跌幅居前，分别下跌37.54%、33.82%和29.66%。其中，一季度末，盘京投资旗下的盛信2期私募证券投资基金重仓普利制药396万股，慎知资产更是重仓该公司近610万股。若二季度没有减持，则两家公司二季度以来在该股票上分别浮亏约6000万和1亿元。整体来看，第三方平台统计的116只百亿私募隐形重仓股中，二季度以来有48只上涨，接近六成下跌。不过，展望后市，不少机构表达了乐观的态度。清和泉资本表示，5月市场受疫情消退、稳增长政策加码、美债冲高回落等影响向上修复。市场经过系统性调整后，悲观情绪得到较大程度释放，相应的市场投资机会越来越多。源乐晟表示，A股市场大概率已经触底，将慢慢走出情绪底部。具体到行业上，首选需求不受疫情影响或在疫情好转后需求可以快速恢复高增长的板块，如光伏、风电、部分制造业等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"02333":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059863117,"gmtCreate":1654331598739,"gmtModify":1676535433015,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gbb","listText":"Gbb","text":"Gbb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059863117","repostId":"1195925879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195925879","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"既有深度，又有响度，研究古典互联网。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"深响","id":"1038713350","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d"},"pubTimestamp":1654312083,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195925879?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 11:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"WM Motor's Hong Kong IPO filing marks the beginning of a new wave of new energy investment.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195925879","media":"深响","summary":"进入2022年，造车新势力第二波上市运动如火如荼。6月1日，威马汽车式向港交所递交招股书，拟在主板挂牌上市，拟募资金额尚未公开。若推进顺利，威马将与“蔚小理”会师。此前，零跑于3月递表港交所，哪吒也传","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Entering 2022, the second wave of IPOs by emerging electric vehicle manufacturers is in full swing.</p><p>On June 1, WM Motor submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, intending to list on the main board. The amount of funds to be raised has not yet been disclosed. If all goes smoothly, WM Motor will join forces with \"Wei Xiaoli\". Previously, Leapmotor filed for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March, and Nezha was also rumored to be rushing to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><b>According to its prospectus, WM Motor's total revenue reached 3.446 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 63.3%; Total revenue reached 6.364 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 84.7%. By the end of 2021, WM Motor had delivered a total of 83,495 electric vehicles, of which 44,152 were sold in 2021, more than doubling the previous year's 21,937.</b></p><p>Looking back at WM Motor's IPO journey, it has been full of twists and turns. As one of the earliest emerging electric vehicle manufacturers, WM Motor accelerated its capital market activities after Wei Xiaoli went public on the US stock market around the same time, which was interpreted by outsiders as preparation for its listing. In September 2020, WM Motor officially announced that it had completed its Series D financing round, the largest single round of pre-IPO financing in the history of new car manufacturing, totaling 10 billion yuan. In early 2021, WM Motor launched its plan to list on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, but it fell through. Subsequently, WM Motor set its sights on the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p><b>In the past six months, WM Motor has completed a pre-IPO round of financing of nearly $600 million, bringing its total financing amount to 35 billion yuan, and the company's valuation has also soared to $7 billion.</b>(Approximately RMB 46.7 billion)<b>。</b>WM Motor's shareholder list includes internet giants such as Baidu and Tencent, star venture capitalists such as Sequoia Capital, state-owned industrial investors such as Shanghai State-owned Investment Corporation, Anhui Hefei Industrial Fund, and Guangzhou Financial Holdings, as well as companies owned by billionaires Stanley Ho and Li Ka-shing.</p><p>This inevitably raises the question: what makes WM Motor so unique that it can attract so much capital to endorse it? Given the current volatile performance of the Hong Kong-listed new energy vehicle sector, can WM Motor's listing inject a strong boost into the industry?</p><p>Analyzing WM Motor's prospectus might yield answers to these questions.</p><p><b>Atypical new car manufacturing</b></p><p>Founded in 2015, WM Motor was born amidst the rise of the new car manufacturing movement in China, but its team background and car manufacturing approach are different from the vast majority of emerging car manufacturers.</p><p>Shen Hui, the founder of WM Motor, can be considered the most experienced among the new car manufacturers. Before founding WM Motor, Shen Hui had a long period of studying and working abroad, working for automakers such as Volvo and Fiat. In 2009, Shen Hui returned to China and joined Geely as vice president, playing an important role in Geely's acquisition of Volvo, an important battle in Chinese automotive history.</p><p>At the end of 2014, automotive veteran Shen Hui chose to resign from Geely and join the team of building cars from scratch. In 2015, Shen Hui acquired a German electric vehicle manufacturing team, which led to the formation of WM Motor, putting him on the same level as internet figures such as Li Bin, Li Xiang, and He Xiaopeng.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c1a216497d58806694cb14b8c82505\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Shen Hui</p><p>Shen Hui has been immersed in the automotive industry for many years.<b>It inherits the car manufacturing methodologies accumulated by traditional automakers over many years and integrates these experiences into the new car manufacturing movement.</b>Compared to most internet car manufacturers who take Tesla as their benchmark, Shen Hui still lists traditional OEMs as role models. He once said, \"WM Motor's product quality should align with Volvo's, and its cost control should learn from Geely.\"</p><p>Based on this, it can be seen that WM Motor's car manufacturing approach is significantly different from that of Tesla and its apprentices.</p><p><b>One of the key words for WM Motor in car manufacturing is \"inclusive finance\". WM Motor's manufacturing philosophy is to adhere to the principle of inclusive technology, mass-produce and quickly apply cutting-edge technologies to the market, and bring consumers intelligent pure electric vehicles that are \"enjoyable to use and affordable\". It hopes to enable every Chinese family to have their own new energy intelligent travel life.</b></p><p>Therefore, unlike Tesla's and Nio' approach of entering the high-end market,<b>From the very beginning, WM Motor positioned itself in the mainstream market in the 150,000-250,000 yuan price range, which aligns with the transformation of the new energy vehicle market from a \"dumbbell type\" to a \"spindle type\".</b></p><p>According to IHS Markit research data, the market penetration rate of mainstream new energy products priced between 150,000 and 250,000 yuan will increase from 3% to 40% within the next 10 years.<b>By 2030, the mainstream market priced between 150,000 and 250,000 yuan will account for about 60% of the market share, meaning the market will enter an era of \"spindle-shaped\" structure.</b>The moves by brands such as XPeng, Nio, Li Auto, Nezha, and Leapmotor to expand into the mainstream market.</p><p>WM Motor is continuously expanding its product portfolio in this sector. According to its prospectus, it plans to launch its flagship sedan, the M7, in the second half of this year, and will launch new SUV, sedan and MPV models based on the Caesar platform in 2023.<b>According to Frost & Sullivan, after the launch of the M7, WM Motor will become the company with the most electric vehicle models launched among all pure electric vehicle manufacturers in China between 2018 and 2022.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e1d2b75ca02e444ba4e089e4996ebc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: WM Motor prospectus</p><p><b>Another key word for WM Motor in car manufacturing is \"front-engine\".</b>This means making heavy asset investments in the initial stage.</p><p>Shen Hui, who comes from a traditional automaker, places great emphasis on \"stability\" in car manufacturing, as evidenced by WM Motor's insistence on building its own factory. The market has never stopped debating whether the OEM model or the self-built factory is superior. One side believes that the OEM model can save expenses, invest costs in R&D, and revitalize idle domestic production capacity, while the other side questions that quality control is difficult to guarantee under the OEM model.</p><p><b>Shen Hui is one of those who insists on building his own factory, even saying, \"If I choose to manufacture it, I won't be able to sleep every day.\"</b>Therefore, in March 2018, WM Motor New Energy Intelligent Industrial Park was officially completed after 16 months, becoming the first independently built and put into operation Industry 4.0 intelligent manufacturing vehicle factory among new car manufacturers.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan, WM Motor's two production facilities in Wenzhou, Zhejiang and Huanggang, Hubei have a maximum annual capacity of 250,000 vehicles.</p><p>In addition, WM Motor's upfront investment is also reflected in its research and development.<b>According to the prospectus, WM Motor's R&D investment was RMB 893 million, RMB 992 million, and RMB 981 million in 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively, accounting for 50.7%, 37.1%, and 20.7% of its total revenue during the same period.</b>As of December 31, 2021, WM Motor had 1,141 R&D personnel, accounting for 54.1% of the total number excluding blue-collar workers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2312a8b2dd15175188c573fd75b9beed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: WM Motor prospectus</p><p>Specifically, in terms of the three-electric system, WM Motor EEA 4.0 is China's first mass-produced centralized domain control electronic and electrical architecture, which can enable vehicles to realize some cross-domain functions more quickly. Its full-domain OTA technology allows users to upgrade via OTA while driving. In terms of autonomous driving, WM Motor launched the Level 2 intelligent mobility assistance system Living Pilot 3.5 and Living Pilot 4.0, which can achieve Level 4 AVP unmanned autonomous parking.</p><p>WM Motor's founders and management team have a strong industry background, a car manufacturing approach that includes affordable products and upfront investment, as well as phased technological achievements, which are its advantages in this highly competitive industry. But it cannot be denied that this is a difficult path to take.</p><p><b>Marginal effects are beginning to appear</b></p><p>The car manufacturing strategy of investing heavily in assets upfront dictates that WM Motor must shoulder significant financial pressure in the early stages, improve the construction of the industrial chain, and then spread the upfront costs through economies of scale in order to achieve profitability.</p><p>At present,<b>Data disclosed in WM Motor's prospectus shows that although WM Motor is still in a stage of negative gross profit and negative net profit, considering its development history and sales growth trend, WM Motor is approaching a turning point.</b></p><p>Specifically, since its delivery at the end of 2018, WM Motor's first intelligent pure electric SUV, the EX5, has entered the market with its technological advantages and price advantages, becoming the best-selling single model among new energy vehicles. WM Motor's annual total sales growth rate remained high, increasing by 101% year-on-year to 44,152 vehicles in 2021.</p><p>Based on this sales performance, WM Motor's revenue in 2019, 2020, and 2021 was RMB 1.762 billion, RMB 2.617 billion, and RMB 4.742 billion, respectively. The total revenue in 2020 and 2021 was RMB 3.446 billion and RMB 6.364 billion, respectively.</p><p>It is important to distinguish here that WM Motor adopts a dealer sales model and has a sales and service network consisting of 621 partner stores. This sales model differs from the direct-sale store sales model of \"Weixiaoli\". Under the distributor sales model, according to accounting standards, the revenue recognized in the accounting statements needs to be deducted from distributor rebates, etc., while Weixiaoli's direct-sale store model directly recognizes revenue in the accounting statements based on the terminal sales price. The difference between the two business models results in inconsistent revenue amounts under the same sales unit price and sales volume.</p><p>Compared to revenue, investors are more concerned about WM Motor's profitability. It is a common phenomenon for new car manufacturers, known as \"money-swallowing monsters,\" to suffer continuous losses in the early stages of their development. With its unique car manufacturing strategy, WM Motor's profit curve is taking shape.</p><p>First, although WM Motor is still operating at a loss, with a gross profit margin of -5.1% per vehicle indicating that it is still \"increasing revenue but not profit,\" the loss rate has been significantly controlled.</p><p><b>According to the prospectus, WM Motor recorded losses of RMB 4.145 billion, RMB 5.084 billion, and RMB 8.206 billion in 2019, 2021, and 2021, respectively. At the same time, the gross loss margin narrowed, from 58.3% in 2019 to 43.5% in 2020 and 41.1% in 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c71b6567a440dc0e70ff5215d844a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: WM Motor prospectus</p><p><b>This demonstrates WM Motor's strict cost control, which is partly related to its chosen market positioning. However, the more crucial determining factor is that WM Motor adheres to a strict cost control approach to car manufacturing.</b></p><p>Secondly, considering WM Motor's development stage, it began mass production in 2018, sales volume climbed rapidly in 2019, sales continued to increase in 2020 and 2021, and its industrial chain became tighter and more mature.<b>During this process, economies of scale became increasingly apparent, marginal effects diminished, and WM Motor gradually entered a phase of narrowing losses.</b>And will move towards positive gross profit margins.</p><p>This is also an inevitable path for new car manufacturers. Apart from Li Auto, which uses range-extended technology, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng were all in a stage of negative gross profit margins when they went public. With the expansion of sales volume, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng have all crossed the milestone of positive gross profit margins. With WM Motor's profitability recovering, emerging electric vehicle manufacturers are expected to collectively enter a new stage of positive gross profit growth.</p><p>Overall, with its development strategy of heavy upfront investment in assets, WM Motor still has considerable room for improvement in its current revenue and profitability. However, with the launch of its reserve models and the improvement of economies of scale, WM Motor's early investment will yield considerable returns.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9bbd6014d3dafbfa49ff6d00ac4cab\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"652\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks become a hotbed for new energy</b></p><p>Amid uncertainties in the geopolitical environment, Wei Xiaoli, which was listed in the US, has collectively returned to the Hong Kong stock market. However, the new energy vehicle sector has performed poorly this year, with all three companies falling below their issue price in Hong Kong. As of now, they have not yet returned to their issue price, which is far from the soaring trend in 2020.</p><p>This is a short-term phenomenon caused by a combination of factors, including the recurring pandemic, the overall technology stock market, its own decline and adjustment, and supply chain difficulties across the industry.</p><p>In the long run, the replacement of gasoline vehicles by new energy vehicles remains a definite trend. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market share of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 18%.</p><p>In this large market, the mainstream segment (i.e., retail price of 150,000-300,000 yuan) that WM Motor has anchored and has already gained a first-mover advantage in is the largest segment, with sales reaching 900,000 vehicles in 2021, accounting for nearly one-third of its annual electric vehicle sales.<b>This will be a huge incremental growth in the future and an entry point for achieving inclusive access to new energy vehicles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98426ff894663ae1006ac9a88ce17051\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: WM Motor prospectus</p><p>For WM Motor itself, this IPO will provide it with stable financing channels, allowing it to continue on a healthy path. As new growth is released and upfront investments gradually generate returns, its corporate value will be reassessed. Moreover, for the long-weak new energy vehicle sector, a new good stock may bring positive stimulus.</p><p>The new energy vehicle industry is not a zero-sum game market. From Tesla to WM Motor, as well as emerging automakers, they are working together to create a brand-new vehicle market and mass lifestyle, redefining the value of automotive companies.</p><p>The transformation of the automotive industry is not something that happens overnight, and the legendary story of new car manufacturing continues.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>WM Motor's Hong Kong IPO filing marks the beginning of a new wave of new energy investment.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWM Motor's Hong Kong IPO filing marks the beginning of a new wave of new energy investment.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1038713350\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5b431abf34240f5bf6064f88f02fa9d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">深响 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-04 11:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Entering 2022, the second wave of IPOs by emerging electric vehicle manufacturers is in full swing.</p><p>On June 1, WM Motor submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, intending to list on the main board. The amount of funds to be raised has not yet been disclosed. If all goes smoothly, WM Motor will join forces with \"Wei Xiaoli\". Previously, Leapmotor filed for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March, and Nezha was also rumored to be rushing to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.</p><p><b>According to its prospectus, WM Motor's total revenue reached 3.446 billion yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 63.3%; Total revenue reached 6.364 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 84.7%. By the end of 2021, WM Motor had delivered a total of 83,495 electric vehicles, of which 44,152 were sold in 2021, more than doubling the previous year's 21,937.</b></p><p>Looking back at WM Motor's IPO journey, it has been full of twists and turns. As one of the earliest emerging electric vehicle manufacturers, WM Motor accelerated its capital market activities after Wei Xiaoli went public on the US stock market around the same time, which was interpreted by outsiders as preparation for its listing. In September 2020, WM Motor officially announced that it had completed its Series D financing round, the largest single round of pre-IPO financing in the history of new car manufacturing, totaling 10 billion yuan. In early 2021, WM Motor launched its plan to list on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, but it fell through. Subsequently, WM Motor set its sights on the Hong Kong stock market.</p><p><b>In the past six months, WM Motor has completed a pre-IPO round of financing of nearly $600 million, bringing its total financing amount to 35 billion yuan, and the company's valuation has also soared to $7 billion.</b>(Approximately RMB 46.7 billion)<b>。</b>WM Motor's shareholder list includes internet giants such as Baidu and Tencent, star venture capitalists such as Sequoia Capital, state-owned industrial investors such as Shanghai State-owned Investment Corporation, Anhui Hefei Industrial Fund, and Guangzhou Financial Holdings, as well as companies owned by billionaires Stanley Ho and Li Ka-shing.</p><p>This inevitably raises the question: what makes WM Motor so unique that it can attract so much capital to endorse it? Given the current volatile performance of the Hong Kong-listed new energy vehicle sector, can WM Motor's listing inject a strong boost into the industry?</p><p>Analyzing WM Motor's prospectus might yield answers to these questions.</p><p><b>Atypical new car manufacturing</b></p><p>Founded in 2015, WM Motor was born amidst the rise of the new car manufacturing movement in China, but its team background and car manufacturing approach are different from the vast majority of emerging car manufacturers.</p><p>Shen Hui, the founder of WM Motor, can be considered the most experienced among the new car manufacturers. Before founding WM Motor, Shen Hui had a long period of studying and working abroad, working for automakers such as Volvo and Fiat. In 2009, Shen Hui returned to China and joined Geely as vice president, playing an important role in Geely's acquisition of Volvo, an important battle in Chinese automotive history.</p><p>At the end of 2014, automotive veteran Shen Hui chose to resign from Geely and join the team of building cars from scratch. In 2015, Shen Hui acquired a German electric vehicle manufacturing team, which led to the formation of WM Motor, putting him on the same level as internet figures such as Li Bin, Li Xiang, and He Xiaopeng.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68c1a216497d58806694cb14b8c82505\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"580\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Shen Hui</p><p>Shen Hui has been immersed in the automotive industry for many years.<b>It inherits the car manufacturing methodologies accumulated by traditional automakers over many years and integrates these experiences into the new car manufacturing movement.</b>Compared to most internet car manufacturers who take Tesla as their benchmark, Shen Hui still lists traditional OEMs as role models. He once said, \"WM Motor's product quality should align with Volvo's, and its cost control should learn from Geely.\"</p><p>Based on this, it can be seen that WM Motor's car manufacturing approach is significantly different from that of Tesla and its apprentices.</p><p><b>One of the key words for WM Motor in car manufacturing is \"inclusive finance\". WM Motor's manufacturing philosophy is to adhere to the principle of inclusive technology, mass-produce and quickly apply cutting-edge technologies to the market, and bring consumers intelligent pure electric vehicles that are \"enjoyable to use and affordable\". It hopes to enable every Chinese family to have their own new energy intelligent travel life.</b></p><p>Therefore, unlike Tesla's and Nio' approach of entering the high-end market,<b>From the very beginning, WM Motor positioned itself in the mainstream market in the 150,000-250,000 yuan price range, which aligns with the transformation of the new energy vehicle market from a \"dumbbell type\" to a \"spindle type\".</b></p><p>According to IHS Markit research data, the market penetration rate of mainstream new energy products priced between 150,000 and 250,000 yuan will increase from 3% to 40% within the next 10 years.<b>By 2030, the mainstream market priced between 150,000 and 250,000 yuan will account for about 60% of the market share, meaning the market will enter an era of \"spindle-shaped\" structure.</b>The moves by brands such as XPeng, Nio, Li Auto, Nezha, and Leapmotor to expand into the mainstream market.</p><p>WM Motor is continuously expanding its product portfolio in this sector. According to its prospectus, it plans to launch its flagship sedan, the M7, in the second half of this year, and will launch new SUV, sedan and MPV models based on the Caesar platform in 2023.<b>According to Frost & Sullivan, after the launch of the M7, WM Motor will become the company with the most electric vehicle models launched among all pure electric vehicle manufacturers in China between 2018 and 2022.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26e1d2b75ca02e444ba4e089e4996ebc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: WM Motor prospectus</p><p><b>Another key word for WM Motor in car manufacturing is \"front-engine\".</b>This means making heavy asset investments in the initial stage.</p><p>Shen Hui, who comes from a traditional automaker, places great emphasis on \"stability\" in car manufacturing, as evidenced by WM Motor's insistence on building its own factory. The market has never stopped debating whether the OEM model or the self-built factory is superior. One side believes that the OEM model can save expenses, invest costs in R&D, and revitalize idle domestic production capacity, while the other side questions that quality control is difficult to guarantee under the OEM model.</p><p><b>Shen Hui is one of those who insists on building his own factory, even saying, \"If I choose to manufacture it, I won't be able to sleep every day.\"</b>Therefore, in March 2018, WM Motor New Energy Intelligent Industrial Park was officially completed after 16 months, becoming the first independently built and put into operation Industry 4.0 intelligent manufacturing vehicle factory among new car manufacturers.</p><p>According to Frost & Sullivan, WM Motor's two production facilities in Wenzhou, Zhejiang and Huanggang, Hubei have a maximum annual capacity of 250,000 vehicles.</p><p>In addition, WM Motor's upfront investment is also reflected in its research and development.<b>According to the prospectus, WM Motor's R&D investment was RMB 893 million, RMB 992 million, and RMB 981 million in 2019, 2020, and 2021, respectively, accounting for 50.7%, 37.1%, and 20.7% of its total revenue during the same period.</b>As of December 31, 2021, WM Motor had 1,141 R&D personnel, accounting for 54.1% of the total number excluding blue-collar workers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2312a8b2dd15175188c573fd75b9beed\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: WM Motor prospectus</p><p>Specifically, in terms of the three-electric system, WM Motor EEA 4.0 is China's first mass-produced centralized domain control electronic and electrical architecture, which can enable vehicles to realize some cross-domain functions more quickly. Its full-domain OTA technology allows users to upgrade via OTA while driving. In terms of autonomous driving, WM Motor launched the Level 2 intelligent mobility assistance system Living Pilot 3.5 and Living Pilot 4.0, which can achieve Level 4 AVP unmanned autonomous parking.</p><p>WM Motor's founders and management team have a strong industry background, a car manufacturing approach that includes affordable products and upfront investment, as well as phased technological achievements, which are its advantages in this highly competitive industry. But it cannot be denied that this is a difficult path to take.</p><p><b>Marginal effects are beginning to appear</b></p><p>The car manufacturing strategy of investing heavily in assets upfront dictates that WM Motor must shoulder significant financial pressure in the early stages, improve the construction of the industrial chain, and then spread the upfront costs through economies of scale in order to achieve profitability.</p><p>At present,<b>Data disclosed in WM Motor's prospectus shows that although WM Motor is still in a stage of negative gross profit and negative net profit, considering its development history and sales growth trend, WM Motor is approaching a turning point.</b></p><p>Specifically, since its delivery at the end of 2018, WM Motor's first intelligent pure electric SUV, the EX5, has entered the market with its technological advantages and price advantages, becoming the best-selling single model among new energy vehicles. WM Motor's annual total sales growth rate remained high, increasing by 101% year-on-year to 44,152 vehicles in 2021.</p><p>Based on this sales performance, WM Motor's revenue in 2019, 2020, and 2021 was RMB 1.762 billion, RMB 2.617 billion, and RMB 4.742 billion, respectively. The total revenue in 2020 and 2021 was RMB 3.446 billion and RMB 6.364 billion, respectively.</p><p>It is important to distinguish here that WM Motor adopts a dealer sales model and has a sales and service network consisting of 621 partner stores. This sales model differs from the direct-sale store sales model of \"Weixiaoli\". Under the distributor sales model, according to accounting standards, the revenue recognized in the accounting statements needs to be deducted from distributor rebates, etc., while Weixiaoli's direct-sale store model directly recognizes revenue in the accounting statements based on the terminal sales price. The difference between the two business models results in inconsistent revenue amounts under the same sales unit price and sales volume.</p><p>Compared to revenue, investors are more concerned about WM Motor's profitability. It is a common phenomenon for new car manufacturers, known as \"money-swallowing monsters,\" to suffer continuous losses in the early stages of their development. With its unique car manufacturing strategy, WM Motor's profit curve is taking shape.</p><p>First, although WM Motor is still operating at a loss, with a gross profit margin of -5.1% per vehicle indicating that it is still \"increasing revenue but not profit,\" the loss rate has been significantly controlled.</p><p><b>According to the prospectus, WM Motor recorded losses of RMB 4.145 billion, RMB 5.084 billion, and RMB 8.206 billion in 2019, 2021, and 2021, respectively. At the same time, the gross loss margin narrowed, from 58.3% in 2019 to 43.5% in 2020 and 41.1% in 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19c71b6567a440dc0e70ff5215d844a3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: WM Motor prospectus</p><p><b>This demonstrates WM Motor's strict cost control, which is partly related to its chosen market positioning. However, the more crucial determining factor is that WM Motor adheres to a strict cost control approach to car manufacturing.</b></p><p>Secondly, considering WM Motor's development stage, it began mass production in 2018, sales volume climbed rapidly in 2019, sales continued to increase in 2020 and 2021, and its industrial chain became tighter and more mature.<b>During this process, economies of scale became increasingly apparent, marginal effects diminished, and WM Motor gradually entered a phase of narrowing losses.</b>And will move towards positive gross profit margins.</p><p>This is also an inevitable path for new car manufacturers. Apart from Li Auto, which uses range-extended technology, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng were all in a stage of negative gross profit margins when they went public. With the expansion of sales volume, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng have all crossed the milestone of positive gross profit margins. With WM Motor's profitability recovering, emerging electric vehicle manufacturers are expected to collectively enter a new stage of positive gross profit growth.</p><p>Overall, with its development strategy of heavy upfront investment in assets, WM Motor still has considerable room for improvement in its current revenue and profitability. However, with the launch of its reserve models and the improvement of economies of scale, WM Motor's early investment will yield considerable returns.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b9bbd6014d3dafbfa49ff6d00ac4cab\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"652\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks become a hotbed for new energy</b></p><p>Amid uncertainties in the geopolitical environment, Wei Xiaoli, which was listed in the US, has collectively returned to the Hong Kong stock market. However, the new energy vehicle sector has performed poorly this year, with all three companies falling below their issue price in Hong Kong. As of now, they have not yet returned to their issue price, which is far from the soaring trend in 2020.</p><p>This is a short-term phenomenon caused by a combination of factors, including the recurring pandemic, the overall technology stock market, its own decline and adjustment, and supply chain difficulties across the industry.</p><p>In the long run, the replacement of gasoline vehicles by new energy vehicles remains a definite trend. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market share of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 18%.</p><p>In this large market, the mainstream segment (i.e., retail price of 150,000-300,000 yuan) that WM Motor has anchored and has already gained a first-mover advantage in is the largest segment, with sales reaching 900,000 vehicles in 2021, accounting for nearly one-third of its annual electric vehicle sales.<b>This will be a huge incremental growth in the future and an entry point for achieving inclusive access to new energy vehicles.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98426ff894663ae1006ac9a88ce17051\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: WM Motor prospectus</p><p>For WM Motor itself, this IPO will provide it with stable financing channels, allowing it to continue on a healthy path. As new growth is released and upfront investments gradually generate returns, its corporate value will be reassessed. Moreover, for the long-weak new energy vehicle sector, a new good stock may bring positive stimulus.</p><p>The new energy vehicle industry is not a zero-sum game market. From Tesla to WM Motor, as well as emerging automakers, they are working together to create a brand-new vehicle market and mass lifestyle, redefining the value of automotive companies.</p><p>The transformation of the automotive industry is not something that happens overnight, and the legendary story of new car manufacturing continues.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/454af821722233f359c7d067685cdcbb","relate_stocks":{"159875":"新能源","160640":"新能源","399941":"新能源","000941.SH":"新能源"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195925879","content_text":"进入2022年，造车新势力第二波上市运动如火如荼。6月1日，威马汽车式向港交所递交招股书，拟在主板挂牌上市，拟募资金额尚未公开。若推进顺利，威马将与“蔚小理”会师。此前，零跑于3月递表港交所，哪吒也传出冲刺港股的消息。据招股书，威马汽车2020年总收益达34.46亿，同比增长63.3%；2021年总收益达63.64亿，同比增长84.7%。截至2021年底，威马累计交付电动汽车83,495辆，其中，2021年销量为44,152辆，较上年的21,937辆增长超一倍。回顾威马的上市之路，可谓一波三折。作为最早一批造车新势力之一，威马在蔚小理前后脚登陆美股后，便加快了资本市场动作，被外界解读为是给上市准备。2020年9月，官宣其D轮完成总额100亿元的新造车史上上市前最大单轮融资，2021年初，威马便开启冲击科创板计划，但却不了了之，随后，威马瞄准了港股。近半年，威马完成了近6亿美元的Pre IPO轮融资，这让其累计融资额达到了350亿元，公司估值也水涨船高，达70亿美金（约合人民币467亿元）。威马的股东名单中，包括百度、腾讯等互联网巨头和红杉等明星风投，上海国投、安徽合肥产业基金、广州金控等国有产业投资者，以及富豪何鸿燊、李嘉诚的企业。这不免让人想问：威马有何与众不同，能吸引众多资本为其背书？在当前港股新能源汽车板块表现动荡的情况下，威马的上市是否能为行业注入一针强心剂？拆解威马招股书，或许能找到这些问题的答案。非典型新造车2015年成立的威马，诞生于国内新造车运动兴起的浪潮之中，但无论是团队背景还是造车思路，都与绝大多数的造车新势力相区别。威马创始人沈晖，可以算作是新造车创始人中最有造车经验的人。创办威马之前，沈晖有一段很长的异国求学及工作经历，分别在沃尔沃、菲亚特等车企任职，2009年沈晖回国加入吉利担任副总裁，在中国汽车史上的重要一役——吉利收购沃尔沃的过程中发挥了重要作用。2014年底，汽车老兵沈晖选择从吉利辞职，加入从零开始造车的队伍。2015年，沈晖拿下了德国一个电动车制造团队，基于此组建了威马汽车，和李斌、李想、何小鹏等互联网人站上了同一赛场。沈晖在汽车行业浸淫多年的沈晖，承接了传统车企多年累积下的造车方法论，并将这些经验融合到了新造车运动中。相比起大多数互联网造车人以特斯拉为标杆，沈晖却仍是将传统主机厂列为榜样，他曾说过：“威马的产品品质要向沃尔沃靠拢，成本控制向吉利学习。”基于此，可以发现威马的造车思路与特斯拉及其学徒们有着明显的不同。威马造车的关键词之一是“普惠”。威马的造车理念是坚持科技普惠，将前沿科技量产落地并快速应用于市场，为消费者带来“用得爽、用得起”的智能纯电动车，希望让每个中国家庭都拥有属于自己的新能源智能出行生活。因此，与特斯拉、蔚来从高端市场切入的思路不同，威马从一开始就定位于15-25万价格区间的主流市场，这与新能源汽车市场从“哑铃型”到“纺锤型”的转型相契合。据IHS Markit调研数据显示，未来10年内15-25万元主流新能源产品市场渗透率将从3%增⻓到40%；到2030年，15-25万元主流市场将占据约60%的市场份额，即市场将进入“纺锤型”结构时代。小鹏、蔚来、理想、哪吒、零跑等品牌往主流市场发力的动作。威马在这一赛道中不断扩大产品矩阵，据招股书，其计划今年下半年推出旗舰轿车M7，并将在2023年推出基于Caesar平台的全新SUV、轿车及MPV车型。据灼识咨询，在M7上线后，威马将成为2018年至2022年期间中国所有纯电动汽车制造商中推出电动汽车车型数目最多的公司。图源：威马招股书威马造车的另一个关键词是“前置”，即在初期进行重资产投入。出身传统车企的沈晖，在造车一事上格外讲究一个“稳”字，表现之一就是威马坚持要自建工厂。市场上从未停歇关于代工模式和自建工厂孰优孰劣的争论，一方认为代工模式能节省开支、将成本投入于研发，并且盘活国内闲置产能，另一方则质疑，代工模式下品控难以获得保障。沈晖是坚持要自建工厂的一方，甚至表示“如果选择代工生产，我会天天睡不着觉”。因此，2018年3月，威马新能源智能产业园历经16个月正式建成，是新造车企业中首个自主建成投产的工业4.0智能制造整车工厂。根据灼识咨询，威马于浙江温州和湖北黄冈的两个生产设施最大年产能为250,000辆。此外，威马的投入前置还体现在研发层面。根据招股书，2019、2020、2021年，威马的研发投入分别为8.93亿元、9.92亿元、9.81亿元，分别占同期总营收的50.7%、37.1%及20.7%。截至2021年12月31日，威马有1141名研发人员，占除蓝领员工外总数的54.1%。图源：威马招股书具体到产品上来看，在三电系统方面，威马EEA 4.0是中国第一个量产的集中式域控制电子电气架构，可以使车辆更快实现部分跨域功能，其全域OTA技术允许用户一边行驶一边OTA升级。自动驾驶方面，威马推出了L2级的智行辅助系统Living Pilot 3.5 以及可以实现L4级AVP无人自主泊车功能的Living Pilot 4.0。威马创始人与管理层深厚产业背景，产品普惠、投入前置的造车思路，以及阶段性的技术果实，是其在这个竞争激烈的行业中的优势。但不能否认的是，这是条难走的路。边际效应初显重资产投入前置的造车思路，决定了威马在早期必须扛起较大的财务压力，完善产业链的搭建，再通过规模效应均摊前期成本，才能实现盈利。现阶段，威马招股书披露的数据显示，威马虽然还处于负毛利、负净利的阶段，不过结合其发展历程及销量增长趋势来看，威马已经逼近拐点。具体来看，威马首款智能纯电SUV车型EX5自2018年底交付以来，凭借其科技普惠及价格优势杀入市场，成为新势力单一车型销量第一。威马的年度总销量增速保持高位，2021年同比增长101%达44,152辆。基于这样的销售表现，在营收层面，威马2019、2020、2021年的营收分别为17.62亿元、26.17亿元和47.42亿元；2020、2021年总收益分为别为34.46亿元、63.64亿元。这里需要区分的是，威马采取经销商销售模式，拥有有621家合作伙伴门店组成的销售与服务网络。该销售模式不同于“蔚小理”的直营店销售模式，在经销商销售模式下，根据会计准则，会计报表中确认的收入需要扣除经销商返利等，而蔚小理的直营店模式直接按终端销售价格确认会计报表收入，两种业务模式的不同，导致相同的销售单价及销售量下，收入金额不一致。相比起营收，投资者们更关注的是威马的盈利能力。被称为“吞金怪兽”的新造车，企业发展前期的持续亏损是一个较普遍的现象。在独特的造车思路下，威马的盈利曲线正在显形。首先，虽然威马尚在亏损期，-5.1%的单车毛利率表明其还在“增收不增利”，但是亏损率得到明显控制。招股书显示，2019-2021年，威马汽车年内分别录得亏损41.45亿元、50.84亿元、82.06亿元，与此同时，毛损率在收窄，从2019年的58.3%下降至2020年的43.5%及2021年的41.1%。图源：威马招股书由此可以看出威马在成本控制上的严格，这一定程度上与威马选择的市场定位有关，而更核心的决定因素应该是，威马秉承着严控成本的造车思路。其次，结合威马的发展阶段来看，其2018年开始量产，2019年销量规模快速攀升，2020、2021年销量继续提升、产业链趋紧成熟，在这过程中规模效应不断显现，边际效应递减，威马逐渐进入了亏损收窄的阶段，并将向着毛利转正迈进。这也是新造车企业的一个必经之路，除了采用增程式技术的理想汽车，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏在上市之时都处于负毛利率的阶段。随着销量规模的扩大，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏都逐个跨过了毛利转正的节点。而随着威马盈利能力的修复，造车新势力有望集体迈入毛利正向增长的新阶段。总的来说，威马在重资产前置投入的发展思路下，现阶段的营收水平、盈利水平还有较大的提升空间。不过，随着储备车型的上市、规模效应的提升，威马在早期的投入将换回可观的回报。港股成新能源热土在地缘政治环境不确定的影响下，在美上市的蔚小理集体回归港股市场。但是今年以来，新能源汽车板块表现疲软，三家在港股均遭遇破发，截至目前，尚未回归发行价，这与2020年一路狂飙的景象相去甚远。这是疫情反复、科技股大盘、自身回落调整、全行业供应链难题等多种因素叠加导致的短期现象。长期来看，新能源取代燃油车依旧是确定的大趋势，根据中汽协的预测，2022年中国新能源汽车销量将达到500万辆，同比增长42%，同时新能源车市场占有率有望超过18%。在这个大市场中，威马锚定、并已占据先发优势的主流细分市场（即零售价为15-30万元）是最大的细分市场，2021年销量达90万辆，占年度电动汽车销售的近三分之一。这将是未来的一个巨大增量，也是实现新能源汽车普惠的切入口。图源：威马招股书此次上市，对威马自身而言，可以得到稳定的融资渠道，继续走在健康的道路上，伴随着增量的释放，及投入前置逐渐产生回报，其企业价值也会被重估；而且，对于疲软已久的新能源汽车板块来说，一个新的好标的或许能够带来正向刺激。新能源汽车行业并非一个零和博弈的市场，从特斯拉到威马，以及还在成长中的造车者，在共同创造全新的车辆市场与大众生活方式，重新定义汽车企业价值。汽车行业变革非一朝一夕之事，新造车的传奇故事也还在继续。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159875":0.9,"160640":0.9,"399941":0.9,"000941.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059863349,"gmtCreate":1654331587481,"gmtModify":1676535433017,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tgv","listText":"Tgv","text":"Tgv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059863349","repostId":"1104028566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059869726,"gmtCreate":1654331570466,"gmtModify":1676535432994,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Vh","listText":"Vh","text":"Vh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059869726","repostId":"1115257762","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115257762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654327837,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115257762?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Netflix's moat becoming its ceiling as its \"flywheel\" slows down?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115257762","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"当新用户增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，奈飞就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。据外媒报道，由于收入增","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When the growth rate of new users has to slow down due to its huge base, Netflix must choose between two options: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow and prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow rapidly on a high base. Currently, Netflix cannot achieve either.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, streaming giant NetFlix announced it will lay off approximately 150 employees and some agent contractors due to slowing revenue growth. In its first-quarter financial report released at the end of April, Netflix's net profit fell 6% year-on-year, and the number of new paying users decreased by 200,000. This is the first time since 2011 that Netflix's paying users have decreased instead of increased. Netflix's stock price plummeted under multiple pressures. Does Netflix currently have a good opportunity to position itself on the left? In my opinion, the limit of loss if you buy now is probably around 20%, but if you consider capital efficiency, it's difficult to draw a definitive conclusion. It remains to be seen when its paid user growth will stabilize and whether its global expansion moat is solid.</p><p><b>\"Flywheel\" stalls, users experience negative growth for the first time.</b></p><p>The ultimate equity value of any company is equal to the sum of the cash flows it can generate over its life cycle, projected onto the current value at an appropriate discount rate. Doing a review on Netflix will greatly help us understand this concept.</p><p>In the past, if you wanted to watch a movie, you would usually go to a place like a library, borrow a few DVDs for a little money, and then take them home to watch. However, due to the emergence of Netflix, DVD rental giant Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in 2011. What Netflix did in its early days was very similar to what Amazon did in its early days, making it possible to rent DVDs online and deliver them to customers' homes, thereby reducing operating costs, passing on profits to consumers, and expanding market share.</p><p>Figure 1 An old Blockbuster store</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c0e8b8f31ff8b893e95f1bebc2dbf6\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, was a visionary. He observed that with the development of cloud technology and the enhancement of computing power, videos and movies will gradually be delivered in digital form rather than in physical form in the future. Therefore, he chose to disrupt himself and focus heavily on the streaming media business.</p><p>Many articles say this is Netflix's \"second growth curve,\" but my opinion is somewhat different. Naifei's move towards digital content distribution is actually a natural extension of its original business. Because the online customer interaction interface, the collection and reuse of customer information, and the self-reinforcing feedback chain of the recommendation engine can all be directly migrated from the original business.</p><p>Although the definition of streaming business is simple, the deeper issue lies in what business model Netflix wants to use to strengthen its competitive advantage. If it's just a content distributor, and the cost of paying based on the content, such as buying a movie from Paramount and distributing it, is proportional to the cost to the customer, then there are no economies of scale or network effects. Therefore, Netflix's solution is to turn variable costs into fixed costs. For example, signing a fixed-price contract with a content provider or studio. And made a big gamble: spending $100 million to produce two seasons of \"House of Cards\" starring Kevin Spacey. The logic behind this is simple: since externalization is not feasible, we should directly produce content internally, forcing content production to become part of the streaming media business model, making content production a fixed cost, and establishing the \"flywheel\" of the entire economy of scale.</p><p>Netflix's strategy has achieved unprecedented results. In the internet world, a strong scale and network are the most reliable moat. In 2018, HBO, a subsidiary of Warner Bros., once a high-end leader in the streaming industry, was confined to the United States due to its cable television business DNA and had completely missed the opportunity for global expansion, no longer able to compete with Netflix.</p><p>It wasn't until Disney's streaming service launched in November 2019 that Netflix emerged as a truly competitive rival on a global scale. The COVID-19 pandemic further boosted its stock price, with Netflix's market capitalization once reaching $300 billion, even surpassing that of Disney, the media giant.</p><p>However, I have always had doubts about Netflix's business model. In the early stages of development, investing heavily in burning market share is an inevitable part of the internet industry. However, when Netflix already has hundreds of millions of users and its growth rate has to slow down due to its huge base, it must make a choice: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow to prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow rapidly on a high base. Currently, Netflix cannot achieve either.</p><p>As shown in Figure 2, the number of global subscribers to Netflix's streaming channel increased from 38 million in the first quarter of 2013 to 220 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Figure 2. Netflix Streaming Channel Global Subscribers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91afc9fee82717b650ed9f9629ee370\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Statistica</p><p>However, information revealed in the latest first-quarter report and earnings conference shows that Disney's subscriber numbers are still growing by several million each quarter, while Netflix has indicated that subscriber numbers will decline in the second quarter. As a result, Netflix's stock price has plummeted from $700 per share to $170 per share in the past six months, even returning to where it was five years ago.</p><p>Figure 3. Netflix's trend since the end of last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618091d0fa3d53745bee0dcf54a63300\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As we can see from Figure 4, although Netflix's revenue has increased sevenfold in the past 10 years, it has been unable to generate a corresponding increase in free cash flow (except for the significant benefit it received in 2020 due to the pandemic).</p><p>Figure 4. Changes in Netflix's revenue and free cash flow over the past 10 years</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8ad713abb9ade6a9302c99d5739e5a\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Company 10K</p><p><b>Netflix layout on the left</b></p><p><b>The loss limit may be around 20%.</b></p><p>Historically, market sentiment has always shifted from one extreme to another, and capitalizing on significant pullback/retracement to buy high-quality stocks is the best way to profit from value investing.</p><p>Netflix currently has a market capitalization of $82 billion, $6 billion in cash on hand, and $15 billion in debt, which means the company's enterprise value is $91 billion. Netflix's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for the past year was $19 billion, which means that based on EBITDA, Netflix's valuation is less than 6x EBITDA.</p><p>However, it should be reiterated that Netflix's highest operating cash flow in history was only $2.43 billion, which is 3% of its current market capitalization. Netflix's annual depreciation and amortization is as high as $12 billion, while its capital expenditure is only $600 million. Therefore, in my opinion, Netflix's EBITDA is deceptive, and at least it is of limited help in accurately assessing the company's value.</p><p>Because a large portion of Netflix's EBITDA is the amortization of content assets, if content assets are excluded, the actual amortization of factories, equipment, and intangible assets in the traditional sense is only about $200 million per year. In other words, Netflix's true EBITDA is $7 billion, which is 13x EBITDA based on the current stock price. The average valuation in the media industry is around 10x EBITDA, so even now, the market still values Netflix at a premium of about 30%.</p><p>In my opinion, if you buy Netflix on the left side now, the limit of the loss might be around 20% (Netflix's valuation has returned to 10x EBITDA), but the upper limit can reach several times, so the odds are interesting. However, from the perspective of financial efficiency, it's hard to say.</p><p>Despite having Reed Hastings and his excellent team, it remains to be seen whether Netflix's growth potential is truly as the company claims, temporarily hampered by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the European market and the recurring negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latin America.</p><p>Also, if these reasons are true, why did Disney add more than 7 million subscribers? How should investors understand the significant difference in subscriber growth over the past two quarters? If Disney can almost catch up with Netflix in terms of subscriber numbers in three years, does that mean Netflix doesn't have a deep moat?</p><p><b>HBO breaks through again</b></p><p><b>Netflix's globalization moat is being tested</b></p><p>We mentioned HBO earlier, which was one of the earliest high-end cable streaming providers and also the producer of the Game of Thrones series. When Netflix's management first started creating its own content, they learned from HBO and transformed content costs from variable costs to fixed costs. HBO is part of Warner Bros. Later, telecommunications giant AT&T acquired Warner Bros., but due to poor management, it managed to turn HBO into a second-rate streaming platform and sold Warner Bros. to the Discovery Channel last year. After the Discovery Channel acquired Warner Bros., it became Warner Discovery (trading code: WBD).</p><p>In my opinion, Warner Exploration's risk-adjusted returns are probably higher than Netflix's. As mentioned earlier, HBO's main problem is that it did not make a global layout earlier. It is precisely in this respect that Warner Exploration excels, with over 50% of its EBITDA coming from overseas. Warner Exploration could transfer the Discovery Channel channel to Warner Bros. and HBO. In this way, the entire business model would have a huge synergistic effect, and Warner could quickly achieve a global layout. Therefore, in my opinion, this acquisition is very reasonable.</p><p>According to statistics, Warner Discovery had 96 million subscribers at the beginning of the year, making it the world's largest streaming platform after Netflix and Disney. My \"pH test paper\" is simple: if Warner Exploration can quickly achieve large-scale global streaming deployment and complete the direct consumer-facing transformation of the Discovery Channel's old business, it will show that Netflix's moat of economies of scale and network effect advantages is not so unbreakable, and Netflix's premium should not exist.</p><p>However, if Warner Bros. Exploration's globalization process proceeds with great difficulties, and the entire market still only has two leading players, Netflix and Disney, then we can almost certainly say that the global duopoly pattern is too fierce now. With the decline in the stock prices of the two companies and shareholders' demands for returns on investment, the competition will ease, and Netflix's profitability should also have a significant leap forward.</p><p>Assuming the duopoly is stable (i.e., Warner Exploration cannot become a \"Shu Kingdom\"), then we have reason to believe that Netflix should be able to achieve at least a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years, which could provide a 25x P/E. Assuming Netflix can achieve a 20% net profit margin, corresponding to a net profit of $6 billion, its reasonable market capitalization should be $150 billion, which is about $330 per share.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571701096748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Netflix's moat becoming its ceiling as its \"flywheel\" slows down?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Netflix's moat becoming its ceiling as its \"flywheel\" slows down?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">证券市场红周刊</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 15:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When the growth rate of new users has to slow down due to its huge base, Netflix must choose between two options: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow and prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow rapidly on a high base. Currently, Netflix cannot achieve either.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, streaming giant NetFlix announced it will lay off approximately 150 employees and some agent contractors due to slowing revenue growth. In its first-quarter financial report released at the end of April, Netflix's net profit fell 6% year-on-year, and the number of new paying users decreased by 200,000. This is the first time since 2011 that Netflix's paying users have decreased instead of increased. Netflix's stock price plummeted under multiple pressures. Does Netflix currently have a good opportunity to position itself on the left? In my opinion, the limit of loss if you buy now is probably around 20%, but if you consider capital efficiency, it's difficult to draw a definitive conclusion. It remains to be seen when its paid user growth will stabilize and whether its global expansion moat is solid.</p><p><b>\"Flywheel\" stalls, users experience negative growth for the first time.</b></p><p>The ultimate equity value of any company is equal to the sum of the cash flows it can generate over its life cycle, projected onto the current value at an appropriate discount rate. Doing a review on Netflix will greatly help us understand this concept.</p><p>In the past, if you wanted to watch a movie, you would usually go to a place like a library, borrow a few DVDs for a little money, and then take them home to watch. However, due to the emergence of Netflix, DVD rental giant Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in 2011. What Netflix did in its early days was very similar to what Amazon did in its early days, making it possible to rent DVDs online and deliver them to customers' homes, thereby reducing operating costs, passing on profits to consumers, and expanding market share.</p><p>Figure 1 An old Blockbuster store</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c0e8b8f31ff8b893e95f1bebc2dbf6\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, was a visionary. He observed that with the development of cloud technology and the enhancement of computing power, videos and movies will gradually be delivered in digital form rather than in physical form in the future. Therefore, he chose to disrupt himself and focus heavily on the streaming media business.</p><p>Many articles say this is Netflix's \"second growth curve,\" but my opinion is somewhat different. Naifei's move towards digital content distribution is actually a natural extension of its original business. Because the online customer interaction interface, the collection and reuse of customer information, and the self-reinforcing feedback chain of the recommendation engine can all be directly migrated from the original business.</p><p>Although the definition of streaming business is simple, the deeper issue lies in what business model Netflix wants to use to strengthen its competitive advantage. If it's just a content distributor, and the cost of paying based on the content, such as buying a movie from Paramount and distributing it, is proportional to the cost to the customer, then there are no economies of scale or network effects. Therefore, Netflix's solution is to turn variable costs into fixed costs. For example, signing a fixed-price contract with a content provider or studio. And made a big gamble: spending $100 million to produce two seasons of \"House of Cards\" starring Kevin Spacey. The logic behind this is simple: since externalization is not feasible, we should directly produce content internally, forcing content production to become part of the streaming media business model, making content production a fixed cost, and establishing the \"flywheel\" of the entire economy of scale.</p><p>Netflix's strategy has achieved unprecedented results. In the internet world, a strong scale and network are the most reliable moat. In 2018, HBO, a subsidiary of Warner Bros., once a high-end leader in the streaming industry, was confined to the United States due to its cable television business DNA and had completely missed the opportunity for global expansion, no longer able to compete with Netflix.</p><p>It wasn't until Disney's streaming service launched in November 2019 that Netflix emerged as a truly competitive rival on a global scale. The COVID-19 pandemic further boosted its stock price, with Netflix's market capitalization once reaching $300 billion, even surpassing that of Disney, the media giant.</p><p>However, I have always had doubts about Netflix's business model. In the early stages of development, investing heavily in burning market share is an inevitable part of the internet industry. However, when Netflix already has hundreds of millions of users and its growth rate has to slow down due to its huge base, it must make a choice: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow to prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow rapidly on a high base. Currently, Netflix cannot achieve either.</p><p>As shown in Figure 2, the number of global subscribers to Netflix's streaming channel increased from 38 million in the first quarter of 2013 to 220 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Figure 2. Netflix Streaming Channel Global Subscribers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91afc9fee82717b650ed9f9629ee370\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Statistica</p><p>However, information revealed in the latest first-quarter report and earnings conference shows that Disney's subscriber numbers are still growing by several million each quarter, while Netflix has indicated that subscriber numbers will decline in the second quarter. As a result, Netflix's stock price has plummeted from $700 per share to $170 per share in the past six months, even returning to where it was five years ago.</p><p>Figure 3. Netflix's trend since the end of last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618091d0fa3d53745bee0dcf54a63300\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As we can see from Figure 4, although Netflix's revenue has increased sevenfold in the past 10 years, it has been unable to generate a corresponding increase in free cash flow (except for the significant benefit it received in 2020 due to the pandemic).</p><p>Figure 4. Changes in Netflix's revenue and free cash flow over the past 10 years</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8ad713abb9ade6a9302c99d5739e5a\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Company 10K</p><p><b>Netflix layout on the left</b></p><p><b>The loss limit may be around 20%.</b></p><p>Historically, market sentiment has always shifted from one extreme to another, and capitalizing on significant pullback/retracement to buy high-quality stocks is the best way to profit from value investing.</p><p>Netflix currently has a market capitalization of $82 billion, $6 billion in cash on hand, and $15 billion in debt, which means the company's enterprise value is $91 billion. Netflix's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for the past year was $19 billion, which means that based on EBITDA, Netflix's valuation is less than 6x EBITDA.</p><p>However, it should be reiterated that Netflix's highest operating cash flow in history was only $2.43 billion, which is 3% of its current market capitalization. Netflix's annual depreciation and amortization is as high as $12 billion, while its capital expenditure is only $600 million. Therefore, in my opinion, Netflix's EBITDA is deceptive, and at least it is of limited help in accurately assessing the company's value.</p><p>Because a large portion of Netflix's EBITDA is the amortization of content assets, if content assets are excluded, the actual amortization of factories, equipment, and intangible assets in the traditional sense is only about $200 million per year. In other words, Netflix's true EBITDA is $7 billion, which is 13x EBITDA based on the current stock price. The average valuation in the media industry is around 10x EBITDA, so even now, the market still values Netflix at a premium of about 30%.</p><p>In my opinion, if you buy Netflix on the left side now, the limit of the loss might be around 20% (Netflix's valuation has returned to 10x EBITDA), but the upper limit can reach several times, so the odds are interesting. However, from the perspective of financial efficiency, it's hard to say.</p><p>Despite having Reed Hastings and his excellent team, it remains to be seen whether Netflix's growth potential is truly as the company claims, temporarily hampered by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the European market and the recurring negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latin America.</p><p>Also, if these reasons are true, why did Disney add more than 7 million subscribers? How should investors understand the significant difference in subscriber growth over the past two quarters? If Disney can almost catch up with Netflix in terms of subscriber numbers in three years, does that mean Netflix doesn't have a deep moat?</p><p><b>HBO breaks through again</b></p><p><b>Netflix's globalization moat is being tested</b></p><p>We mentioned HBO earlier, which was one of the earliest high-end cable streaming providers and also the producer of the Game of Thrones series. When Netflix's management first started creating its own content, they learned from HBO and transformed content costs from variable costs to fixed costs. HBO is part of Warner Bros. Later, telecommunications giant AT&T acquired Warner Bros., but due to poor management, it managed to turn HBO into a second-rate streaming platform and sold Warner Bros. to the Discovery Channel last year. After the Discovery Channel acquired Warner Bros., it became Warner Discovery (trading code: WBD).</p><p>In my opinion, Warner Exploration's risk-adjusted returns are probably higher than Netflix's. As mentioned earlier, HBO's main problem is that it did not make a global layout earlier. It is precisely in this respect that Warner Exploration excels, with over 50% of its EBITDA coming from overseas. Warner Exploration could transfer the Discovery Channel channel to Warner Bros. and HBO. In this way, the entire business model would have a huge synergistic effect, and Warner could quickly achieve a global layout. Therefore, in my opinion, this acquisition is very reasonable.</p><p>According to statistics, Warner Discovery had 96 million subscribers at the beginning of the year, making it the world's largest streaming platform after Netflix and Disney. My \"pH test paper\" is simple: if Warner Exploration can quickly achieve large-scale global streaming deployment and complete the direct consumer-facing transformation of the Discovery Channel's old business, it will show that Netflix's moat of economies of scale and network effect advantages is not so unbreakable, and Netflix's premium should not exist.</p><p>However, if Warner Bros. Exploration's globalization process proceeds with great difficulties, and the entire market still only has two leading players, Netflix and Disney, then we can almost certainly say that the global duopoly pattern is too fierce now. With the decline in the stock prices of the two companies and shareholders' demands for returns on investment, the competition will ease, and Netflix's profitability should also have a significant leap forward.</p><p>Assuming the duopoly is stable (i.e., Warner Exploration cannot become a \"Shu Kingdom\"), then we have reason to believe that Netflix should be able to achieve at least a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years, which could provide a 25x P/E. Assuming Netflix can achieve a 20% net profit margin, corresponding to a net profit of $6 billion, its reasonable market capitalization should be $150 billion, which is about $330 per share.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u37Kpc-grId8paew0xCvrA\">证券市场红周刊</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2224e6b43e75f835dbd8bb6d8c4972c","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4108":"电影和娱乐"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u37Kpc-grId8paew0xCvrA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115257762","content_text":"当新用户增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，奈飞就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。据外媒报道，由于收入增长放缓，流媒体巨头奈飞（NetFlix）宣布将解雇约150名员工以及部分代理承包商。4月底其发布的第一季度财报显示，第一季度净利润同比下降6%，新增付费用户减少20万，这也是奈飞自2011年来首次付费用户不增反降。多重压力下，奈飞股价暴跌。那当前奈飞是否出现了左侧布局良机？笔者认为，现在买入，亏损的极限可能是20%左右，但如果考虑资金效率，则不好下定论。后续仍需留意其付费用户增长何时企稳，以及全球化布局护城河是否牢固。“飞轮”失速 用户首次负增长任何一个公司其最终的股权价值，都等于其生命周期能够产生的现金流按照合适的贴现比率投射到当下的数值之和。对奈飞做一个复盘，将非常有助于我们理解这一概念。曾经，如果想要看电影，一般都是去一个类似图书馆的地方，花一点钱借几盒DVD，然后带回家去看。但因为奈飞的出现，DVD租赁老大Blockbuster在2011年宣告破产。早期奈飞做的事，和早期亚马逊做的事非常像，让线上租赁DVD并投递到客户家中成为可能，以此减少经营成本，把利润让给消费者，扩大市场份额。图1 一个老Blockbuster店奈飞的创始人里德·哈斯廷斯（Reed Hastings）是一个很有远见的人。他观察到随着云技术的发展，计算能力的加强，未来视频和电影一定会慢慢以数字化的形式去传递，而非实体。因此他选择自我颠覆，重注流媒体业务。很多文章说这是奈飞的“第二增长曲线”，笔者的观点有些许不同。奈飞走数字化分发内容，其实是再自然不过的一种原有业务的延伸。因为无论是线上客户交互界面，客户信息的搜集和再利用，以及推荐引擎的自我加强反馈链，都可以直接从原有业务迁移。虽然流媒体业务的定义很简单，但更深层的东西，在于奈飞要以怎样的商业模式去强化自己的竞争优势。如果只是一个内容的渠道商，按照内容的可变成本来支付，比如从帕拉蒙特购买一部电影，分发要支付的费用和客户成正比，那就没有规模经济和网络效应可言。因此，奈飞想到的办法是把可变成本变成固定成本。比如和内容供应商或工作室签一个固定价格的合约。并做了一把豪赌：花一亿美元制作两季由凯文·史派西（Kevin Spacey）主演的《纸牌屋》。这背后的逻辑也很简单:既然向外不行，那就向内直接把内容给制作了，强迫内容生产变成流媒体商业模式的一部分，让内容制作变成固定成本，将整个规模经济的“飞轮”建立起来。奈飞的战略取得了空前的成果，在互联网的世界里，强大的规模和网络是最可靠的护城河。2018年，曾经流媒体行业的高端翘楚，华纳旗下的HBO，因为有线电视业务基因，一直困于美国本土，已经完全错失了全球扩张的机会，再也无力和奈飞掰手腕。直到2019年迪士尼流媒体在11月份上线，奈飞才出现一个真正在全球领域能与之竞争的对手。新冠疫情更是催化了股价，奈飞的市值一度高达3000亿美元，甚至超过了传媒行业的宗主迪士尼。但笔者对奈飞的生意模式，一直是有疑惑的。在发展前期，砸钱烧市场份额，这是互联网业态的必然。但当奈飞已经有上亿的用户规模了，增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，那就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。从图2可以看到，奈飞流媒体频道的全球订阅人数从2013年一季度的3800万，增加到2022年一季度的2.2亿。图2 奈飞流媒体频道的全球订阅人数数据来源：Statistica但在最新披露的一季报以及业绩说明会透露的信息显示，迪士尼每个季度的订阅人数仍在以几百万的幅度增长，奈飞却指引二季度订阅人数将下降。因此，过去6个月，奈飞的股价从700美元/股下挫到170美元/股，股价甚至回到了5年前的位置。图3 去年年底以来奈飞走势图从图4中我们也可以看到，尽管奈飞的营收在过去10年增加了7倍，但却一直没有办法产生相应增幅的自由现金流（除了2020年因为疫情而大幅受益）。图4 过去10年奈飞营收和自由现金流变动数据来源：公司10K左侧布局奈飞亏损极限可能在20%左右历史经验来看，市场情绪总是从一个极端走到另一个极端，而抓住大幅回撤买入优质股权，正是价值投资获利的不二良方。目前奈飞的市值为820亿美元，账面有现金60亿美元，债务共计150亿美元，也就是说这个公司的企业价值为910亿美元。奈飞过去一年的EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）为190亿美元，也就是说，按照EBITDA计算，奈飞的估值才6xEBITDA不到。不过，这里也要重申提醒，奈飞过去历史上产生过最多经营现金流的一年才24.3亿美元，也就是目前市值的3%的经营现金流收益。奈飞每年的折旧摊销高达120亿美元，而资本开支才6亿美元，因此奈飞的EBITDA，在笔者看来，是有欺骗性的，至少对于我们准确对这个公司的价值进行评估的帮助有限。因为奈飞的EBITDA里面，很大一部分是对内容资产的摊销，如果剔除掉内容资产的话，每年按照传统意义的厂房、器械和无形资产的真实摊销只有2亿美元左右。也就是说，奈飞的真实EBITDA是70亿美元，按照当前股价是13xEBITDA。传媒行业的平均估值大概是10xEBITDA，所以即便如今，市场给奈飞的估值还是有大概30%的溢价。笔者认为，如果现在左侧买入奈飞，亏损的极限可能是20%左右（奈飞估值回到10xEBITDA），但上界可以达到好几倍，因此赔率是有意思的。但是资金效率角度，却不好说。尽管奈飞有里德·哈斯廷斯及他非常优秀的团队，但奈飞的成长性是不是真的如公司所说，是受俄乌战争对欧洲市场的影响，以及新冠疫情反复对拉丁美洲造成的负面影响，暂时受挫，还有待观察。另外，如果这些理由属实，为什么迪士尼增加了700多万名订阅者呢？投资者应如何理解两者在订阅人数增速上，过去两个季度巨大的差异呢？如果迪士尼能用3年的时间几乎在订阅人数上追平奈飞，这是不是说明奈飞没有很深的护城河呢？HBO再突围奈飞全球化护城河受检验我们前面提到过HBO，其作为最早的高端有线电视流媒体供应商，也是《权力的游戏》这一连续剧的制作商。奈飞的管理层做自己的内容之初，就是学习了HBO，把内容成本从可变成本，转化成为了固定成本。HBO是华纳兄弟的一部分，后来电信巨头AT&T收购了华纳兄弟，但因为经营不善，愣是把HBO做成了一个二流流媒体平台，并在去年把华纳影视卖给了探索频道。探索频道收购了华纳影视之后，变成了华纳探索（交易代码：WBD）。笔者认为，其实华纳探索的风险调整后收益，恐怕比奈飞更高。前文谈到，HBO的问题主要在于没有早一些做全球化布局。恰恰在这一点上，华纳探索做得特别好，其EBITDA超过50%都是来自于海外的。华纳探索可以把探索频道的渠道拿来给华纳影视及HBO使用，这样一来，整个商业模式会有巨大的协同效应，华纳也可以很快实现全球化布局，因此这个并购，在笔者看来是很合理的。统计数据来看，华纳探索的年初订阅人数为9600万，是除了奈飞和迪士尼之外全球最大的流媒体平台。笔者的“酸碱度测试纸”很简单，如果华纳探索能较快地实现全球规模化流媒体部署，并完成探索频道老业务的直接面向消费者的转型，那将说明，奈飞搭建的规模经济和网络效应优势的护城河，并没有那么牢不可破，奈飞的溢价也就不应存在。但如果华纳探索的全球化进程举步维艰，整个市场仍然只有奈飞和迪士尼这两个头部玩家，那我们几乎可以确定全球双寡头垄断格局即便现在竞争过于激烈，随着两个公司股价的下调及股东对投资回报的诉求，竞争将缓和，奈飞的盈利能力，应也会有一个较大的跃升空间。假设双寡头格局是稳固的（即华纳探索无法成为“蜀国”），那么我们有理由相信奈飞应能至少实现未来5年年化10%的增速，可以给一个25x的市盈率。假设奈飞能实现20%的净利润率，对应60亿美元的净利润，则合理市值应为1500亿美元，也就是330美元/股左右的市值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059869522,"gmtCreate":1654331538766,"gmtModify":1676535433008,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tf","listText":"Tf","text":"Tf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059869522","repostId":"1133176586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133176586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654328043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133176586?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"rate hike \"lost 800 yuan\" to himself, and the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133176586","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"根据美联储最近披露的季报显示，截至今年一季度末，美联储持有的美债、抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）出现了3300亿美元的账面亏损（约合人民币22105亿元）。另根据相关文件，2022年一季度，持有近9万亿美","content":"<p><div>According to the Federal Reserve's latest quarterly report, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the Fed incurred a book loss of $330 billion (approximately RMB 2.210.5 trillion) on its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). According to relevant documents, in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve, which holds nearly $9 trillion in assets, remitted $32.2 billion to the U.S. Treasury Department. Reuters quoted Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, as saying that, adjusted for the Federal Reserve's asset appreciation as of the end of last year, the Bank...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>rate hike \"lost 800 yuan\" to himself, and the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nrate hike \"lost 800 yuan\" to himself, and the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>According to the Federal Reserve's latest quarterly report, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the Fed incurred a book loss of $330 billion (approximately RMB 2.210.5 trillion) on its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). According to relevant documents, in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve, which holds nearly $9 trillion in assets, remitted $32.2 billion to the U.S. Treasury Department. Reuters quoted Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, as saying that, adjusted for the Federal Reserve's asset appreciation as of the end of last year, the Bank...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133176586","content_text":"根据美联储最近披露的季报显示，截至今年一季度末，美联储持有的美债、抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）出现了3300亿美元的账面亏损（约合人民币22105亿元）。另根据相关文件，2022年一季度，持有近9万亿美元资产的美联储向美国财政部汇出了322亿美元的资金。路透社援引银行政策研究所（Bank Policy Institute）首席经济学家比尔·纳尔逊称，根据美联储截至去年年底的资产升值情况进行调整，该行今年一季度未实现的亏损（unrealized losses）甚至更大，达到4580亿美元。尽管美国经济正试图从新冠疫情中逐步复苏，《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，美联储不断继续购买资产的做法也受到外界批评。如今，美联储正在试图扭转其资产购买的趋势，缩减其资产负债表。需要指出的是，如果美联储通过出售其中一些资产来加快缩表过程，那么未变现亏损有可能变成实际亏损。根据美联储的一季报，按照公允价值计算，截至3月31日，美联储购买的2.77万亿美元的MBS市值已经降至2.606万亿美元。随着美联储不断加息，如今美国的抵押贷款利率不断攀升，并且随着市场利率不断上升，任何有息证券的亏损都在加剧。纽约联储在本周早些时候的一份报告中指出，由于市场预计美联储将继续加息（利率将继续上升），美联储的投资组合可能还会出现进一步的亏损。除了巨额的亏损外，美联储的一季报还透露出了一个问题：随着美联储提高短期利率，它将向银行支付更多的利息，以补偿银行在美联储的存款准备金，从而增加了开支。与此同时，随着美联储缩减资产负债表，其利息收益将下降，这或将导致美联储走向经营亏损。但纽约联储的官员在报告中称，无论如何，美联储都有能力为其操作提供资金和货币政策支持。但这可能意味着被政府官员密切关注的一项关键指将急剧下降：美联储汇入美国财政部的盈余。路透社报道称，在“量化宽松（QE）”时期，美联储汇给美国财政部的利润在去年达到了创纪录的1070亿美元，但随着美联储从QE转向如今的“量化紧缩（QT）”，其向财政部的汇款或将降至零。据悉，美联储可以通过在资产负债表上创建一个名为“递延资产”（deferred asset）的新条目来重新标记这些损失。在美联储再次出现盈余的年份，其将无需再把这些盈余交给财政部，直到它首先偿还完自身债务，再抹去这些“递延资产”。此外，有“最会炒股的央行”之称的瑞士央行也陷入巨亏漩涡之中。今年一季度，瑞士央行遭遇了历史最严重的亏损。据其披露的季度报告显示，该银行在2022年1月至3月期间，累计损失328亿瑞士法郎（人民币2294亿元)，这是该行自1907年成立以来遭遇的最严重季度亏损。报告称，市场利率上升是一季度业绩亏损的主要原因。利率上升导致贬值，总损失为251亿瑞士法郎。此外，由于利率上升以及俄乌冲突，股票和其他证券损失107亿瑞士法郎。曾任 Elliott 资产管理公司投资组合经理和瑞银债券策略师的 Meyrick Chapman 透露，年初至今，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕，损失可能高达750亿瑞士法郎（约合人民币5246亿元）左右，大约相当于瑞士GDP的10%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059869361,"gmtCreate":1654331475053,"gmtModify":1676535432986,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Efg","listText":"Efg","text":"Efg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059869361","repostId":"1133176586","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133176586","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654328043,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133176586?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 15:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"rate hike \"lost 800 yuan\" to himself, and the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133176586","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":"根据美联储最近披露的季报显示，截至今年一季度末，美联储持有的美债、抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）出现了3300亿美元的账面亏损（约合人民币22105亿元）。另根据相关文件，2022年一季度，持有近9万亿美","content":"<p><div>According to the Federal Reserve's latest quarterly report, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the Fed incurred a book loss of $330 billion (approximately RMB 2.210.5 trillion) on its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). According to relevant documents, in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve, which holds nearly $9 trillion in assets, remitted $32.2 billion to the U.S. Treasury Department. Reuters quoted Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, as saying that, adjusted for the Federal Reserve's asset appreciation as of the end of last year, the Bank...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"mrjjxw","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>rate hike \"lost 800 yuan\" to himself, and the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nrate hike \"lost 800 yuan\" to himself, and the Federal Reserve suffered a huge loss of 2.2 trillion yuan on its books!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>According to the Federal Reserve's latest quarterly report, as of the end of the first quarter of this year, the Fed incurred a book loss of $330 billion (approximately RMB 2.210.5 trillion) on its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). According to relevant documents, in the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve, which holds nearly $9 trillion in assets, remitted $32.2 billion to the U.S. Treasury Department. Reuters quoted Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute, as saying that, adjusted for the Federal Reserve's asset appreciation as of the end of last year, the Bank...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/w-IKgkWde0gp4RL4iiDXUw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133176586","content_text":"根据美联储最近披露的季报显示，截至今年一季度末，美联储持有的美债、抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）出现了3300亿美元的账面亏损（约合人民币22105亿元）。另根据相关文件，2022年一季度，持有近9万亿美元资产的美联储向美国财政部汇出了322亿美元的资金。路透社援引银行政策研究所（Bank Policy Institute）首席经济学家比尔·纳尔逊称，根据美联储截至去年年底的资产升值情况进行调整，该行今年一季度未实现的亏损（unrealized losses）甚至更大，达到4580亿美元。尽管美国经济正试图从新冠疫情中逐步复苏，《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，美联储不断继续购买资产的做法也受到外界批评。如今，美联储正在试图扭转其资产购买的趋势，缩减其资产负债表。需要指出的是，如果美联储通过出售其中一些资产来加快缩表过程，那么未变现亏损有可能变成实际亏损。根据美联储的一季报，按照公允价值计算，截至3月31日，美联储购买的2.77万亿美元的MBS市值已经降至2.606万亿美元。随着美联储不断加息，如今美国的抵押贷款利率不断攀升，并且随着市场利率不断上升，任何有息证券的亏损都在加剧。纽约联储在本周早些时候的一份报告中指出，由于市场预计美联储将继续加息（利率将继续上升），美联储的投资组合可能还会出现进一步的亏损。除了巨额的亏损外，美联储的一季报还透露出了一个问题：随着美联储提高短期利率，它将向银行支付更多的利息，以补偿银行在美联储的存款准备金，从而增加了开支。与此同时，随着美联储缩减资产负债表，其利息收益将下降，这或将导致美联储走向经营亏损。但纽约联储的官员在报告中称，无论如何，美联储都有能力为其操作提供资金和货币政策支持。但这可能意味着被政府官员密切关注的一项关键指将急剧下降：美联储汇入美国财政部的盈余。路透社报道称，在“量化宽松（QE）”时期，美联储汇给美国财政部的利润在去年达到了创纪录的1070亿美元，但随着美联储从QE转向如今的“量化紧缩（QT）”，其向财政部的汇款或将降至零。据悉，美联储可以通过在资产负债表上创建一个名为“递延资产”（deferred asset）的新条目来重新标记这些损失。在美联储再次出现盈余的年份，其将无需再把这些盈余交给财政部，直到它首先偿还完自身债务，再抹去这些“递延资产”。此外，有“最会炒股的央行”之称的瑞士央行也陷入巨亏漩涡之中。今年一季度，瑞士央行遭遇了历史最严重的亏损。据其披露的季度报告显示，该银行在2022年1月至3月期间，累计损失328亿瑞士法郎（人民币2294亿元)，这是该行自1907年成立以来遭遇的最严重季度亏损。报告称，市场利率上升是一季度业绩亏损的主要原因。利率上升导致贬值，总损失为251亿瑞士法郎。此外，由于利率上升以及俄乌冲突，股票和其他证券损失107亿瑞士法郎。曾任 Elliott 资产管理公司投资组合经理和瑞银债券策略师的 Meyrick Chapman 透露，年初至今，瑞士央行的股票投资回报十分糟糕，损失可能高达750亿瑞士法郎（约合人民币5246亿元）左右，大约相当于瑞士GDP的10%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9050448854,"gmtCreate":1654230550678,"gmtModify":1676535417509,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ha&nbsp;","listText":"Ha&nbsp;","text":"Ha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9050448854","repostId":"1136892456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136892456","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653874750,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136892456?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-30 09:39","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during Dragon Boat Festival Holiday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136892456","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"中国传统节日端午节假期临近，各主要市场休市安排如下：A股：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）休市，6月6日（星期一）起照常开市。港股：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）休市，6月6日（星期","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>As the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaches, the closure arrangements of major markets are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8a4a56f028e2f6b5375badd5f49596\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Friday, June 3 to Sunday, June 5, and will open as usual from Monday, June 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Friday, June 3 to Sunday, June 5, and will open as usual from Monday, June 6.</p><p><b>US, Australian and Singapore stocks traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Not available from Friday, June 3 to Sunday, June 5 and open as usual from Monday, June 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Not available from Friday, June 3 to Sunday, June 5 and open as usual from Monday, June 6.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Dragon Boat Festival, also known as Duanyang Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Tianzhong Festival, etc., originated from the worship of natural celestial phenomena and evolved from dragon sacrifice in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in mid-summer, Canglong Qisu soared into the middle of the south, in the most \"middle\" position of the whole year, that is, the fifth line of the Book of Changes Qian Gua said: \"Flying dragon is in the sky\". Its origin covers ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects of content, contains profound and rich cultural connotation, in the inheritance and development of a variety of folk customs as one, festival and custom content is rich. Dragon boat and rice dumplings are the two major rituals of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival founded by ancient ancestors to worship Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. It is said that Qu Yuan, a poet of Chu State during the Warring States Period, committed suicide by jumping through the Miluo River on May 5th, and later people also took the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan; There are also sayings in memory of Wu Zixu, Cao E and Jie Zitui. Generally speaking, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the ancient ancestors choosing the auspicious day of \"flying dragons in the sky\" to worship the dragon ancestors, pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, and inject the fashion of \"treating diseases and preventing epidemics\" in summer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during Dragon Boat Festival Holiday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: List of Main Market Closure Arrangements during Dragon Boat Festival Holiday\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-05-30 09:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>As the Dragon Boat Festival, a traditional Chinese festival, approaches, the closure arrangements of major markets are as follows:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d8a4a56f028e2f6b5375badd5f49596\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>A shares:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Friday, June 3 to Sunday, June 5, and will open as usual from Monday, June 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks:</b></p><p>The market will be closed from Friday, June 3 to Sunday, June 5, and will open as usual from Monday, June 6.</p><p><b>US, Australian and Singapore stocks traded as usual.</b></p><p><b>Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Not available from Friday, June 3 to Sunday, June 5 and open as usual from Monday, June 6.</p><p><b>Hong Kong Stock Connect:</b></p><p>Not available from Friday, June 3 to Sunday, June 5 and open as usual from Monday, June 6.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Dragon Boat Festival, also known as Duanyang Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Tianzhong Festival, etc., originated from the worship of natural celestial phenomena and evolved from dragon sacrifice in ancient times. During the Dragon Boat Festival in mid-summer, Canglong Qisu soared into the middle of the south, in the most \"middle\" position of the whole year, that is, the fifth line of the Book of Changes Qian Gua said: \"Flying dragon is in the sky\". Its origin covers ancient astrological culture, humanistic philosophy and other aspects of content, contains profound and rich cultural connotation, in the inheritance and development of a variety of folk customs as one, festival and custom content is rich. Dragon boat and rice dumplings are the two major rituals of the Dragon Boat Festival, which have been passed down in China since ancient times.</p><p>The Dragon Boat Festival was originally a festival founded by ancient ancestors to worship Dragon Ancestor and pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits. It is said that Qu Yuan, a poet of Chu State during the Warring States Period, committed suicide by jumping through the Miluo River on May 5th, and later people also took the Dragon Boat Festival as a festival to commemorate Qu Yuan; There are also sayings in memory of Wu Zixu, Cao E and Jie Zitui. Generally speaking, the Dragon Boat Festival originated from the ancient ancestors choosing the auspicious day of \"flying dragons in the sky\" to worship the dragon ancestors, pray for blessings and ward off evil spirits, and inject the fashion of \"treating diseases and preventing epidemics\" in summer.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ea6dbc4088c8bacb63a863e559c64b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21a5622e4d7ad647ba048e585d4a4133","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136892456","content_text":"中国传统节日端午节假期临近，各主要市场休市安排如下：A股：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）休市，6月6日（星期一）起照常开市。港股：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）休市，6月6日（星期一）起照常开市。美股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。沪股通、深股通：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）不提供服务，6月6日（星期一）起照常开通。港股通：6月3日（星期五）至6月5日（星期日）不提供服务，6月6日（星期一）起照常开通。背景介绍：端午节，又称端阳节、龙舟节、天中节等，源于自然天象崇拜，由上古时代祭龙演变而来。仲夏端午，苍龙七宿飞升于正南中天，处于全年最“正中”之位，即如《易经·乾卦》第五爻的爻辞曰：“飞龙在天”。其起源涵盖了古老星象文化、人文哲学等方面内容，蕴含着深邃丰厚的文化内涵，在传承发展中杂糅了多种民俗为一体，节俗内容丰富。扒龙舟与食粽是端午节的两大礼俗，这两大礼俗在中国自古传承，至今不辍。端午节，本是上古先民创立用于拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪的节日。因传说战国时期的楚国诗人屈原在五月五日跳汨罗江自尽，后来人们亦将端午节作为纪念屈原的节日；也有纪念伍子胥、曹娥及介子推等说法。总的来说，端午节起源于上古先民择“飞龙在天”吉日拜祭龙祖、祈福辟邪，注入夏季时令“祛病防疫\"风尚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"HSI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024791819,"gmtCreate":1653920305832,"gmtModify":1676535362651,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gah","listText":"Gah","text":"Gah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024791819","repostId":"617096729","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":617096729,"gmtCreate":1653918533000,"gmtModify":1676533165479,"author":{"id":"3585895914412071","authorId":"3585895914412071","name":"品玩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b172a08e9f14d6bb2f35c135c87f473e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585895914412071","idStr":"3585895914412071"},"themes":[],"title":"罵完還在買 寶可夢公司2021財年銷售額增長70.15%","htmlText":"寶可夢公司今天公開了2021-2022財年的財報，財報顯示，寶可夢公司該財年銷售額2042.09億日元，同比增長70.15%，營業利潤598.6億日元，同比增長115.29%，其他收入也均有大幅增長。 圖源：源於網絡 作爲寶可夢品牌的運營公司，寶可夢公司負責授權與販售寶可夢繫列的相關商品，如寶可夢遊戲軟件、集換式卡牌遊戲、動畫與電影等等。而在該財年內，寶可夢公司並沒有推出太多新的產品，主要還是以寶可夢IP的運營爲主。 遊戲業務方面，該財年寶可夢公司推出了《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》和《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》兩款主系列遊戲作品，其中自公佈之後一直被玩家們不夠看好的《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》銷量已超過&nbsp;1397萬套，而實驗性的《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》的全球銷量也已突破650萬份。分支作品系列則推出了《New寶可夢隨樂拍》，不過這款遊戲並沒有引起太多的討論，此前公佈銷量僅達到240萬。 圖源：寶可夢百科 手遊方面，寶可夢公司財報期間推出了由騰訊製作的《寶可夢大集結》，並在手機端和NS端開放運營。截至今年4月，該遊戲的下載量已經超過了7000萬，而持續運營的《寶可夢 GO》和《Pokemon Master EX》也均已進入平穩運營期。 動畫方面，目前正在播放的《寶可夢 旅途》仍然受到劇情影響，播放量大打折扣。除了2021年9月3日播出的《月亮與太陽，小春與春日 》以2.4%的收視率進入日本TV動畫收視前十之外，其他劇集並沒有引發關注。而動畫電影方面，去年上映的《寶可夢：皮卡丘和可可的冒險》獲得了不錯的反響，僅在大陸地區票房便已超過5000萬。對於寶可夢公司來說，商品授權一直都是公司的主要收入。根據此前的統計，在寶可夢迄今爲止1090億美元的收入中，有828億美元來自衍生授權。 圖源：肯德基 相比較已經結束的上一財年，本財年寶可夢公司擁有更多值得期待的產品，除了主系列","listText":"寶可夢公司今天公開了2021-2022財年的財報，財報顯示，寶可夢公司該財年銷售額2042.09億日元，同比增長70.15%，營業利潤598.6億日元，同比增長115.29%，其他收入也均有大幅增長。 圖源：源於網絡 作爲寶可夢品牌的運營公司，寶可夢公司負責授權與販售寶可夢繫列的相關商品，如寶可夢遊戲軟件、集換式卡牌遊戲、動畫與電影等等。而在該財年內，寶可夢公司並沒有推出太多新的產品，主要還是以寶可夢IP的運營爲主。 遊戲業務方面，該財年寶可夢公司推出了《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》和《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》兩款主系列遊戲作品，其中自公佈之後一直被玩家們不夠看好的《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》銷量已超過&nbsp;1397萬套，而實驗性的《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》的全球銷量也已突破650萬份。分支作品系列則推出了《New寶可夢隨樂拍》，不過這款遊戲並沒有引起太多的討論，此前公佈銷量僅達到240萬。 圖源：寶可夢百科 手遊方面，寶可夢公司財報期間推出了由騰訊製作的《寶可夢大集結》，並在手機端和NS端開放運營。截至今年4月，該遊戲的下載量已經超過了7000萬，而持續運營的《寶可夢 GO》和《Pokemon Master EX》也均已進入平穩運營期。 動畫方面，目前正在播放的《寶可夢 旅途》仍然受到劇情影響，播放量大打折扣。除了2021年9月3日播出的《月亮與太陽，小春與春日 》以2.4%的收視率進入日本TV動畫收視前十之外，其他劇集並沒有引發關注。而動畫電影方面，去年上映的《寶可夢：皮卡丘和可可的冒險》獲得了不錯的反響，僅在大陸地區票房便已超過5000萬。對於寶可夢公司來說，商品授權一直都是公司的主要收入。根據此前的統計，在寶可夢迄今爲止1090億美元的收入中，有828億美元來自衍生授權。 圖源：肯德基 相比較已經結束的上一財年，本財年寶可夢公司擁有更多值得期待的產品，除了主系列","text":"寶可夢公司今天公開了2021-2022財年的財報，財報顯示，寶可夢公司該財年銷售額2042.09億日元，同比增長70.15%，營業利潤598.6億日元，同比增長115.29%，其他收入也均有大幅增長。 圖源：源於網絡 作爲寶可夢品牌的運營公司，寶可夢公司負責授權與販售寶可夢繫列的相關商品，如寶可夢遊戲軟件、集換式卡牌遊戲、動畫與電影等等。而在該財年內，寶可夢公司並沒有推出太多新的產品，主要還是以寶可夢IP的運營爲主。 遊戲業務方面，該財年寶可夢公司推出了《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》和《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》兩款主系列遊戲作品，其中自公佈之後一直被玩家們不夠看好的《寶可夢 晶燦鑽石／明亮珍珠》銷量已超過 1397萬套，而實驗性的《寶可夢傳說 阿爾宙斯》的全球銷量也已突破650萬份。分支作品系列則推出了《New寶可夢隨樂拍》，不過這款遊戲並沒有引起太多的討論，此前公佈銷量僅達到240萬。 圖源：寶可夢百科 手遊方面，寶可夢公司財報期間推出了由騰訊製作的《寶可夢大集結》，並在手機端和NS端開放運營。截至今年4月，該遊戲的下載量已經超過了7000萬，而持續運營的《寶可夢 GO》和《Pokemon Master EX》也均已進入平穩運營期。 動畫方面，目前正在播放的《寶可夢 旅途》仍然受到劇情影響，播放量大打折扣。除了2021年9月3日播出的《月亮與太陽，小春與春日 》以2.4%的收視率進入日本TV動畫收視前十之外，其他劇集並沒有引發關注。而動畫電影方面，去年上映的《寶可夢：皮卡丘和可可的冒險》獲得了不錯的反響，僅在大陸地區票房便已超過5000萬。對於寶可夢公司來說，商品授權一直都是公司的主要收入。根據此前的統計，在寶可夢迄今爲止1090億美元的收入中，有828億美元來自衍生授權。 圖源：肯德基 相比較已經結束的上一財年，本財年寶可夢公司擁有更多值得期待的產品，除了主系列","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/617096729","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026949220,"gmtCreate":1653317080860,"gmtModify":1676535259443,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"H","listText":"H","text":"H","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026949220","repostId":"614936799","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":614936799,"gmtCreate":1653316434511,"gmtModify":1676533138936,"author":{"id":"3472102947790189","authorId":"3472102947790189","name":"美股在线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ba8418d52d20feaad4ba56bd8f4d1b0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3472102947790189","idStr":"3472102947790189"},"themes":[],"title":"法國巴黎銀行加盟摩根大通Onyx數字資產網絡","htmlText":"IFTNews 國際財經訊：法國巴黎銀行加入了Onyx數字資產網絡。Onyx數字資產網絡是美國投資銀行巨頭摩根大通(NYSE: JPM)推出的一個平臺，旨在幫助金融服務提供商在不動用自身現金儲備的情況下交換不同種類的有價值資產。據《金融時報》報道，法國巴黎銀行現在可以在固定收益市場進行短期交易，攜手利用區塊鏈技術在超過 12萬億美元的市場中利用獨特的可能性。法國巴黎銀行現在擁有對 Onyx數字資產平臺的訪問權限，現在將允許這家法國機構在幾個小時內借出美國政府債券，而這些債券不會離開其資產負債表。回購或“回購”市場是一個非常重要的市場，因爲它有助於政府執行其貨幣政策，是整個金融服務提供商的一個重要收入來源。除了作爲政府經濟控制的一個渠道外，銀行還可以借入爲期幾天的優質資產，用於衍生品交易或其他印鈔業務。固定資產市場代表着區塊鏈技術在金融世界獲得深入表達的方式之一。除了讓客戶直接持有數字貨幣作爲投資外，銀行一直在尋找多種方式部署區塊鏈功能。自摩根大通部署Onyx數字資產平臺以來，迄今爲止已經進行了總價值3000億美元的交易，這一平臺爲相關機構提供了價值。然而，摩根大通對區塊鏈代幣化的正面利用與傑米•戴蒙的觀點相左。傑米曾表示，比特幣(BTC)和其他區塊鏈領域的旗艦資產不是他的菜。雖然Onyx數字資產平臺是新的，但它正在逐步獲得目前由美國政府主導的回購市場的公平市場份額，這在一定程度上要感謝使用它的金融巨頭，包括但不限於高盛集團(NYSE: GS)。摩根大通(JPMorgan)在追求將金融世界的關鍵領域代幣化方面更爲雄心勃勃。法國巴黎銀行全球市場首席運營官兼工程主管喬•博諾表示:“這不僅僅是對概念工作的證明，我們認爲這是我們努力的一部分，隨着市場的發展，我們將把這項技術應用於整個交易和運營生命週期。”摩根大通Onyx數字資產部門負責人Tyrone Lobban證實，除了回購市場，","listText":"IFTNews 國際財經訊：法國巴黎銀行加入了Onyx數字資產網絡。Onyx數字資產網絡是美國投資銀行巨頭摩根大通(NYSE: JPM)推出的一個平臺，旨在幫助金融服務提供商在不動用自身現金儲備的情況下交換不同種類的有價值資產。據《金融時報》報道，法國巴黎銀行現在可以在固定收益市場進行短期交易，攜手利用區塊鏈技術在超過 12萬億美元的市場中利用獨特的可能性。法國巴黎銀行現在擁有對 Onyx數字資產平臺的訪問權限，現在將允許這家法國機構在幾個小時內借出美國政府債券，而這些債券不會離開其資產負債表。回購或“回購”市場是一個非常重要的市場，因爲它有助於政府執行其貨幣政策，是整個金融服務提供商的一個重要收入來源。除了作爲政府經濟控制的一個渠道外，銀行還可以借入爲期幾天的優質資產，用於衍生品交易或其他印鈔業務。固定資產市場代表着區塊鏈技術在金融世界獲得深入表達的方式之一。除了讓客戶直接持有數字貨幣作爲投資外，銀行一直在尋找多種方式部署區塊鏈功能。自摩根大通部署Onyx數字資產平臺以來，迄今爲止已經進行了總價值3000億美元的交易，這一平臺爲相關機構提供了價值。然而，摩根大通對區塊鏈代幣化的正面利用與傑米•戴蒙的觀點相左。傑米曾表示，比特幣(BTC)和其他區塊鏈領域的旗艦資產不是他的菜。雖然Onyx數字資產平臺是新的，但它正在逐步獲得目前由美國政府主導的回購市場的公平市場份額，這在一定程度上要感謝使用它的金融巨頭，包括但不限於高盛集團(NYSE: GS)。摩根大通(JPMorgan)在追求將金融世界的關鍵領域代幣化方面更爲雄心勃勃。法國巴黎銀行全球市場首席運營官兼工程主管喬•博諾表示:“這不僅僅是對概念工作的證明，我們認爲這是我們努力的一部分，隨着市場的發展，我們將把這項技術應用於整個交易和運營生命週期。”摩根大通Onyx數字資產部門負責人Tyrone Lobban證實，除了回購市場，","text":"IFTNews 國際財經訊：法國巴黎銀行加入了Onyx數字資產網絡。Onyx數字資產網絡是美國投資銀行巨頭摩根大通(NYSE: JPM)推出的一個平臺，旨在幫助金融服務提供商在不動用自身現金儲備的情況下交換不同種類的有價值資產。據《金融時報》報道，法國巴黎銀行現在可以在固定收益市場進行短期交易，攜手利用區塊鏈技術在超過 12萬億美元的市場中利用獨特的可能性。法國巴黎銀行現在擁有對 Onyx數字資產平臺的訪問權限，現在將允許這家法國機構在幾個小時內借出美國政府債券，而這些債券不會離開其資產負債表。回購或“回購”市場是一個非常重要的市場，因爲它有助於政府執行其貨幣政策，是整個金融服務提供商的一個重要收入來源。除了作爲政府經濟控制的一個渠道外，銀行還可以借入爲期幾天的優質資產，用於衍生品交易或其他印鈔業務。固定資產市場代表着區塊鏈技術在金融世界獲得深入表達的方式之一。除了讓客戶直接持有數字貨幣作爲投資外，銀行一直在尋找多種方式部署區塊鏈功能。自摩根大通部署Onyx數字資產平臺以來，迄今爲止已經進行了總價值3000億美元的交易，這一平臺爲相關機構提供了價值。然而，摩根大通對區塊鏈代幣化的正面利用與傑米•戴蒙的觀點相左。傑米曾表示，比特幣(BTC)和其他區塊鏈領域的旗艦資產不是他的菜。雖然Onyx數字資產平臺是新的，但它正在逐步獲得目前由美國政府主導的回購市場的公平市場份額，這在一定程度上要感謝使用它的金融巨頭，包括但不限於高盛集團(NYSE: GS)。摩根大通(JPMorgan)在追求將金融世界的關鍵領域代幣化方面更爲雄心勃勃。法國巴黎銀行全球市場首席運營官兼工程主管喬•博諾表示:“這不僅僅是對概念工作的證明，我們認爲這是我們努力的一部分，隨着市場的發展，我們將把這項技術應用於整個交易和運營生命週期。”摩根大通Onyx數字資產部門負責人Tyrone Lobban證實，除了回購市場，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/720d13616832f02817bef376ee058f1e","width":"531","height":"339"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/614936799","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9026940590,"gmtCreate":1653316973210,"gmtModify":1676535259417,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hj","listText":"Hj","text":"Hj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9026940590","repostId":"1179870947","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179870947","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653315648,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179870947?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-23 22:20","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The 618 shopping festival is in full swing: JD.com is going all out in marketing, while Tmall is helping merchants.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179870947","media":"AI蓝媒汇","summary":"京东做流量，阿里做留量。上周五，当网友们还沉浸在520的爱意氛围中，电商行业的两大巨头却在悄然间展开动员。一切都是为了那个即将到来的、消费市场上半年最重要的营销节点——618。疫情多发、市场低迷、需求","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>To build traffic, Alibaba focuses on user retention.</b>Last Friday, while netizens were still immersed in the atmosphere of love for May 20th, the two giants of the e-commerce industry were quietly mobilizing. Everything is for the upcoming 618 shopping festival, the most important marketing event in the first half of the year for the consumer market.</p><p>With frequent outbreaks of the pandemic, a sluggish market, and cooling demand, frankly speaking, users' enthusiasm is waning. How to \"repair\" the emotional connection with consumers is the most urgent task to save consumption, and e-commerce giants have no choice but to \"get involved\".</p><p>Interestingly,<b>On May 20th, Alibaba and JD.com held meetings to directly or indirectly convey their determination and sincerity for this 618 shopping festival.</b></p><p>Consumers are naturally happy to see this succeed. The more aggressively the giants compete, the greater the benefits consumers gain.</p><p>If you don't believe me, look at this: Tmall just announced a 300-50 discount, and JD.com immediately changed its original 300-30 discount, using a slight advantage of one yuan to follow up and announce that the discount will be 50 off for purchases over 299 yuan.</p><p><b>Price wars are merely superficial.</b>Upon closer inspection, the logic between the two is somewhat different.</p><p>A deep analysis of the statements and policies of the two giants reveals that JD.com, led by Xu Lei, continues to make a high-profile appearance with its \"logistics advantages,\" holding press conferences and strengthening packaging and marketing.</p><p>In contrast, Tmall didn't even hold a public press conference, keeping an unusually low profile.</p><p><b>In short, JD.com's most urgent task is to maintain its fulfillment advantages, focus on marketing, and relentlessly pursue \"growth.\" With nearly 1 billion domestic consumers, Taobao's next step is to convert traffic into \"user retention\" and accompany merchants to plan for the long term.</b></p><p><b>JD.com builds traffic, Alibaba retains traffic.</b></p><p>Horizontal comparison.</p><p>At the 618 shopping festival launch event held on the morning of May 20, in addition to showcasing its achievements during the pandemic, JD.com's focus was almost entirely on logistics, logistics, and logistics.</p><p>A few hours later, Alibaba's 2022 Tmall Top Talk for merchants was held as scheduled. It is worth noting that, unlike JD.com's fully public \"launch event,\" Alibaba's was merely a \"closed-door meeting\" for brand merchants, which obviously had a different focus.</p><p>Alibaba's closed-door meeting on Tmall did not mention much about user-side discounts and services. Instead, it took the 618 shopping festival as an opportunity to focus on introducing the strategic layout of Alibaba's platform to major brand merchants.</p><p>In other words, in a market rife with uncertainty, JD.com still chooses to boost users' morale, while Alibaba chooses to stabilize merchants, resulting in a different logic.</p><p><b>Beneath the surface lies a deeper logic.</b></p><p>Why are there these differences? Just look at JD.com's financial report.</p><p><b>On the one hand, JD.com suffered a net loss of 3 billion yuan in Q1 2022 and 5.2 billion yuan in Q4 2021, marking two consecutive quarters of losses. In a subsequent conference call, JD.com's management stated that they would increase the weighting of profitability in management KPIs this year.</b></p><p><b>On the other hand, JD.com's user growth rate is also slowing down. JD.com's active purchasing users reached 580.5 million in the past 12 months, compared to 569.7 million in the fourth quarter of last year, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 1.8%. Compared to a net increase of 100 million last year, with an average increase of 25 million per quarter, JD.com's active users only increased by 10.8 million in the first quarter of this year, indicating a significant slowdown in growth.</b></p><p>Alibaba just announced that its AAC has reached nearly 1 billion. According to data from QuestMobile, as of Q1 2022, my country's mobile internet monthly active users reached 1.183 billion.</p><p>Moreover, overtaking<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Taobao, which regained the top spot in user numbers and is closest to its \"ceiling,\" continues to grow in user numbers. As of December 31, 2021, Alibaba China's business segment saw an increase of 20 million annual active consumers (AACs) in a single quarter.</p><p>Therefore, a simple and crude understanding:<b>JD.com's main task is still to increase traffic and improve profitability, while Alibaba's focus is on how to cultivate this 1 billion \"user retention\".</b>This logically explains why JD.com is still attracting \"users\"; Alibaba now needs to provide more in-depth services to merchants and find ways to immerse users more in the entire Taobao ecosystem.</p><p>The reason JD.com doesn't or can't do this is because of its own business model.</p><p>The logistics services that JD.com can provide to consumers are due to JD.com's self-operated model. Merchants need to pay higher logistics and warehousing costs to enter the warehouse, making it more like a \"wholesaler.\" JD.com holds the merchants' goods and payments, and the merchants' payment terms are the regulator of JD.com's profits.</p><p>Taobao, however, differs from this model.</p><p>Dai Shan proposed a concept—from transaction to consumption.</p><p>She explained: \"The domestic consumer market is currently experiencing significant volatility and uncertainty.\"<b>In this uncertainty, 1 billion AAC is our greatest advantage and certainty. Deep user penetration around 1 billion AAC is my first choice.</b></p><p>In terms of methodology, this means collecting and optimizing marketing IPs. Projects with unclear returns on investment will be eliminated, but projects with higher returns on investment, such as 618, Double 11, and Double 12, will be continuously optimized and retained to further explore their value. \"Let's focus on making more certain investments together, giving businesses more confidence and bringing more certain business.\"</p><p>Naturally, 1 billion users still have huge value to operate: for example, new users who purchase across product categories can allow merchants in different categories to penetrate and enjoy the 1 billion user retention dividend more evenly; Continue to incubate new products and brands to provide consumers with more consumption options; A new link from transaction to consumption has been established, increasing the time spent and engagement of the 1 billion users who retained their accounts. Marketing products through content such as shopping and live streaming allows users to \"shop online\" and enjoy the pleasure of consumption more than just the convenience of transactions...</p><p>In short, the larger Alibaba faces completely different challenges than JD.com. The former chooses to work with merchants to find certainty in an uncertain environment, and chooses to survive and grow together with merchants.</p><p><b>Returning to our original aspirations, we will make it easy to do business anywhere.</b></p><p>Just as people of different ages face different life challenges, they are not the same.<b>Alibaba has already taken the path that JD.com is taking, and the path Alibaba chooses may be related to the new lunar exploration project of the entire e-commerce industry.</b></p><p>Looking at Taobao is like looking at the future of e-commerce.</p><p>As for the answers to the future, Taobao seems to have chosen to look to history.</p><p>On Tmall Top Talk, Dai Shan, one of the eighteen founding members, once again mentioned the original intention behind Alibaba's founding 23 years ago—<b>Make it easy to do business anywhere.</b>\"Although the overall environment is quite challenging, my original aspiration remains unchanged. We must return to the merchant experience and business development itself, so that merchants have a future, security, and a simpler way to do business.\"</p><p>It is believed that supply-side merchants can resonate with this original aspiration on a deeper level today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afac94cac193dbc00ad1a77389b2f141\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On May 16, the State Council Information Office released data on the national economic performance in April 2022: due to the impact of the epidemic in April, total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 11.1% year-on-year. In April this year, the growth rate of GMV of comprehensive e-commerce platforms slowed down, and some platforms also moderately reduced their subsidies. In terms of product category prosperity, the growth rate of all product categories was weaker than in March.</p><p>Nevertheless, online shopping remains the main means for people to participate in consumption during the pandemic. Data released by the State Council Information Office on online retail sales of physical goods from January to April this year shows a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Although e-commerce and online retail remain vibrant overall, the confidence of both stores and consumers has been severely damaged to varying degrees.</p><p>A marketer serving new consumer brands frankly told AI Blue Media Hub: \"Major brands have actually been affected, but they have to invest their 'surplus' in 618 because this is one of the few opportunities to turn things around.\"</p><p>Clearly, Taobao, which is closest to merchants, understands this all too well. The more difficult the times, the more it wants to help merchants find hope amidst uncertainty.</p><p>Dai Shan provided specific measures for this:</p><p>First, the goal is to maximize the value of a product throughout its entire lifecycle. The platform provides in-depth operation throughout the entire lifecycle, from the new product stage, growth stage, maturity stage to clearance stage, helping merchants maximize product value.</p><p>Secondly, it is about using new consumption to bring new business. We will continue to provide consumers with richer and higher-quality consumption options by incubating new brands, and help businesses find new spaces;</p><p>Third, it aims to comprehensively improve the merchant experience by \"simplifying rules, upgrading merchant tools, and reducing merchant costs,\" thereby achieving the goal of \"making business simpler.\"</p><p>Finally, the integration of the inventory system ensures the certainty of sales and fulfillment in the event of unforeseen circumstances. This also provides conditions for Taobao e-commerce to evolve from \"far-field commerce\" to \"comprehensive commerce that combines far-field, medium-field, and near-field\".</p><p><b>In summary, it means reducing costs and increasing efficiency, continuously utilizing existing efficient resources, and keeping pace with the times to create more \"digital business toolboxes\". Compared to JD.com's emphasis this morning on improving its hardware and software supply chain capabilities, Alibaba's \"closed-door meeting,\" though low-key, was actually full of sincerity.</b></p><p>Where does confidence come from? Perhaps besides being larger in scale and more mature in development, we still need to return to Alibaba's original logic.</p><p>\"Making it easy to do business anywhere\" may seem like just empowering businesses, but it actually grasps the core driving force behind the logic of declining consumption.<b>When platforms use technology and business models to help merchants alleviate their concerns and stimulate innovation, they will inevitably be able to provide consumers with a more upgraded consumption experience.</b></p><p>This is not only the underlying logic behind Taobao's growth as the number one e-commerce platform, but it can also be considered the underlying logic behind giving back to the industry and leading China's consumer e-commerce base through the shadows and towards a breakthrough.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lmh","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The 618 shopping festival is in full swing: JD.com is going all out in marketing, while Tmall is helping merchants.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe 618 shopping festival is in full swing: JD.com is going all out in marketing, while Tmall is helping merchants.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AI蓝媒汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-23 22:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>To build traffic, Alibaba focuses on user retention.</b>Last Friday, while netizens were still immersed in the atmosphere of love for May 20th, the two giants of the e-commerce industry were quietly mobilizing. Everything is for the upcoming 618 shopping festival, the most important marketing event in the first half of the year for the consumer market.</p><p>With frequent outbreaks of the pandemic, a sluggish market, and cooling demand, frankly speaking, users' enthusiasm is waning. How to \"repair\" the emotional connection with consumers is the most urgent task to save consumption, and e-commerce giants have no choice but to \"get involved\".</p><p>Interestingly,<b>On May 20th, Alibaba and JD.com held meetings to directly or indirectly convey their determination and sincerity for this 618 shopping festival.</b></p><p>Consumers are naturally happy to see this succeed. The more aggressively the giants compete, the greater the benefits consumers gain.</p><p>If you don't believe me, look at this: Tmall just announced a 300-50 discount, and JD.com immediately changed its original 300-30 discount, using a slight advantage of one yuan to follow up and announce that the discount will be 50 off for purchases over 299 yuan.</p><p><b>Price wars are merely superficial.</b>Upon closer inspection, the logic between the two is somewhat different.</p><p>A deep analysis of the statements and policies of the two giants reveals that JD.com, led by Xu Lei, continues to make a high-profile appearance with its \"logistics advantages,\" holding press conferences and strengthening packaging and marketing.</p><p>In contrast, Tmall didn't even hold a public press conference, keeping an unusually low profile.</p><p><b>In short, JD.com's most urgent task is to maintain its fulfillment advantages, focus on marketing, and relentlessly pursue \"growth.\" With nearly 1 billion domestic consumers, Taobao's next step is to convert traffic into \"user retention\" and accompany merchants to plan for the long term.</b></p><p><b>JD.com builds traffic, Alibaba retains traffic.</b></p><p>Horizontal comparison.</p><p>At the 618 shopping festival launch event held on the morning of May 20, in addition to showcasing its achievements during the pandemic, JD.com's focus was almost entirely on logistics, logistics, and logistics.</p><p>A few hours later, Alibaba's 2022 Tmall Top Talk for merchants was held as scheduled. It is worth noting that, unlike JD.com's fully public \"launch event,\" Alibaba's was merely a \"closed-door meeting\" for brand merchants, which obviously had a different focus.</p><p>Alibaba's closed-door meeting on Tmall did not mention much about user-side discounts and services. Instead, it took the 618 shopping festival as an opportunity to focus on introducing the strategic layout of Alibaba's platform to major brand merchants.</p><p>In other words, in a market rife with uncertainty, JD.com still chooses to boost users' morale, while Alibaba chooses to stabilize merchants, resulting in a different logic.</p><p><b>Beneath the surface lies a deeper logic.</b></p><p>Why are there these differences? Just look at JD.com's financial report.</p><p><b>On the one hand, JD.com suffered a net loss of 3 billion yuan in Q1 2022 and 5.2 billion yuan in Q4 2021, marking two consecutive quarters of losses. In a subsequent conference call, JD.com's management stated that they would increase the weighting of profitability in management KPIs this year.</b></p><p><b>On the other hand, JD.com's user growth rate is also slowing down. JD.com's active purchasing users reached 580.5 million in the past 12 months, compared to 569.7 million in the fourth quarter of last year, representing a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 1.8%. Compared to a net increase of 100 million last year, with an average increase of 25 million per quarter, JD.com's active users only increased by 10.8 million in the first quarter of this year, indicating a significant slowdown in growth.</b></p><p>Alibaba just announced that its AAC has reached nearly 1 billion. According to data from QuestMobile, as of Q1 2022, my country's mobile internet monthly active users reached 1.183 billion.</p><p>Moreover, overtaking<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Taobao, which regained the top spot in user numbers and is closest to its \"ceiling,\" continues to grow in user numbers. As of December 31, 2021, Alibaba China's business segment saw an increase of 20 million annual active consumers (AACs) in a single quarter.</p><p>Therefore, a simple and crude understanding:<b>JD.com's main task is still to increase traffic and improve profitability, while Alibaba's focus is on how to cultivate this 1 billion \"user retention\".</b>This logically explains why JD.com is still attracting \"users\"; Alibaba now needs to provide more in-depth services to merchants and find ways to immerse users more in the entire Taobao ecosystem.</p><p>The reason JD.com doesn't or can't do this is because of its own business model.</p><p>The logistics services that JD.com can provide to consumers are due to JD.com's self-operated model. Merchants need to pay higher logistics and warehousing costs to enter the warehouse, making it more like a \"wholesaler.\" JD.com holds the merchants' goods and payments, and the merchants' payment terms are the regulator of JD.com's profits.</p><p>Taobao, however, differs from this model.</p><p>Dai Shan proposed a concept—from transaction to consumption.</p><p>She explained: \"The domestic consumer market is currently experiencing significant volatility and uncertainty.\"<b>In this uncertainty, 1 billion AAC is our greatest advantage and certainty. Deep user penetration around 1 billion AAC is my first choice.</b></p><p>In terms of methodology, this means collecting and optimizing marketing IPs. Projects with unclear returns on investment will be eliminated, but projects with higher returns on investment, such as 618, Double 11, and Double 12, will be continuously optimized and retained to further explore their value. \"Let's focus on making more certain investments together, giving businesses more confidence and bringing more certain business.\"</p><p>Naturally, 1 billion users still have huge value to operate: for example, new users who purchase across product categories can allow merchants in different categories to penetrate and enjoy the 1 billion user retention dividend more evenly; Continue to incubate new products and brands to provide consumers with more consumption options; A new link from transaction to consumption has been established, increasing the time spent and engagement of the 1 billion users who retained their accounts. Marketing products through content such as shopping and live streaming allows users to \"shop online\" and enjoy the pleasure of consumption more than just the convenience of transactions...</p><p>In short, the larger Alibaba faces completely different challenges than JD.com. The former chooses to work with merchants to find certainty in an uncertain environment, and chooses to survive and grow together with merchants.</p><p><b>Returning to our original aspirations, we will make it easy to do business anywhere.</b></p><p>Just as people of different ages face different life challenges, they are not the same.<b>Alibaba has already taken the path that JD.com is taking, and the path Alibaba chooses may be related to the new lunar exploration project of the entire e-commerce industry.</b></p><p>Looking at Taobao is like looking at the future of e-commerce.</p><p>As for the answers to the future, Taobao seems to have chosen to look to history.</p><p>On Tmall Top Talk, Dai Shan, one of the eighteen founding members, once again mentioned the original intention behind Alibaba's founding 23 years ago—<b>Make it easy to do business anywhere.</b>\"Although the overall environment is quite challenging, my original aspiration remains unchanged. We must return to the merchant experience and business development itself, so that merchants have a future, security, and a simpler way to do business.\"</p><p>It is believed that supply-side merchants can resonate with this original aspiration on a deeper level today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afac94cac193dbc00ad1a77389b2f141\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On May 16, the State Council Information Office released data on the national economic performance in April 2022: due to the impact of the epidemic in April, total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 11.1% year-on-year. In April this year, the growth rate of GMV of comprehensive e-commerce platforms slowed down, and some platforms also moderately reduced their subsidies. In terms of product category prosperity, the growth rate of all product categories was weaker than in March.</p><p>Nevertheless, online shopping remains the main means for people to participate in consumption during the pandemic. Data released by the State Council Information Office on online retail sales of physical goods from January to April this year shows a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Although e-commerce and online retail remain vibrant overall, the confidence of both stores and consumers has been severely damaged to varying degrees.</p><p>A marketer serving new consumer brands frankly told AI Blue Media Hub: \"Major brands have actually been affected, but they have to invest their 'surplus' in 618 because this is one of the few opportunities to turn things around.\"</p><p>Clearly, Taobao, which is closest to merchants, understands this all too well. The more difficult the times, the more it wants to help merchants find hope amidst uncertainty.</p><p>Dai Shan provided specific measures for this:</p><p>First, the goal is to maximize the value of a product throughout its entire lifecycle. The platform provides in-depth operation throughout the entire lifecycle, from the new product stage, growth stage, maturity stage to clearance stage, helping merchants maximize product value.</p><p>Secondly, it is about using new consumption to bring new business. We will continue to provide consumers with richer and higher-quality consumption options by incubating new brands, and help businesses find new spaces;</p><p>Third, it aims to comprehensively improve the merchant experience by \"simplifying rules, upgrading merchant tools, and reducing merchant costs,\" thereby achieving the goal of \"making business simpler.\"</p><p>Finally, the integration of the inventory system ensures the certainty of sales and fulfillment in the event of unforeseen circumstances. This also provides conditions for Taobao e-commerce to evolve from \"far-field commerce\" to \"comprehensive commerce that combines far-field, medium-field, and near-field\".</p><p><b>In summary, it means reducing costs and increasing efficiency, continuously utilizing existing efficient resources, and keeping pace with the times to create more \"digital business toolboxes\". Compared to JD.com's emphasis this morning on improving its hardware and software supply chain capabilities, Alibaba's \"closed-door meeting,\" though low-key, was actually full of sincerity.</b></p><p>Where does confidence come from? Perhaps besides being larger in scale and more mature in development, we still need to return to Alibaba's original logic.</p><p>\"Making it easy to do business anywhere\" may seem like just empowering businesses, but it actually grasps the core driving force behind the logic of declining consumption.<b>When platforms use technology and business models to help merchants alleviate their concerns and stimulate innovation, they will inevitably be able to provide consumers with a more upgraded consumption experience.</b></p><p>This is not only the underlying logic behind Taobao's growth as the number one e-commerce platform, but it can also be considered the underlying logic behind giving back to the industry and leading China's consumer e-commerce base through the shadows and towards a breakthrough.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wtwyxq5lJS4GBL-E0bcBZw\">AI蓝媒汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d11e7d1673e11fae5b070942d3126d0e","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/wtwyxq5lJS4GBL-E0bcBZw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179870947","content_text":"京东做流量，阿里做留量。上周五，当网友们还沉浸在520的爱意氛围中，电商行业的两大巨头却在悄然间展开动员。一切都是为了那个即将到来的、消费市场上半年最重要的营销节点——618。疫情多发、市场低迷、需求预冷，坦白讲，用户的激情在降低，如何“修复”与消费者之间的情感链接，是挽救消费的当务之急，电商巨头也不得不“卷”。有意思的是，就在520这一天，阿里和京东先后召开会议，或直接、或间接地向外界传递这次618的决心和诚意。消费者自然乐见其成。巨头们打得越热闹，消费者赢得的利益也就越大。不信你看，这厢天猫刚发布300减50，京东马上修改原定的300减30，以一块钱的微弱优势跟票，宣布优惠改为满299减50。价格战仅仅是表象，细看之下，二者的逻辑却有点不相同。深度拆解两家巨头的口径与政策可以明显看到：徐雷带队的京东一如既往高调地以“物流优势”亮相，举办发布会，强化包装和营销；反观天猫连个公开的新闻发布会都没有，低调异常。一句话，京东当务之急是稳住自身的履约优势，重营销、死磕“增长”；而有近10亿国内消费者的淘宝下一步要做的其实是把流量变为“留量”，陪商家一起谋长远。京东做流量，阿里做留量横向对比。在5月20日上午召开的618启动发布会上，除了展示在疫情期间所做的功绩以外，京东的重点几乎都是物流、物流、还是物流。在数小时之后，阿里面向商家端的2022天猫Top Talk如期举行。值得注意的是，区别于京东的全公开“发布会”，阿里这仅仅是一场面向品牌商家端的“闭门会”，显而易见，侧重点有所不同。阿里召开的天猫闭门会并未太多提及用户端的优惠及服务，而是以618为契机，重点向各大品牌商家介绍接下来阿里平台的战略布局。也就是说在充斥着不确定性的市场中，京东依旧选择给用户打鸡血，而阿里则选择稳住商家，逻辑话风就不同。表象之下都隐含着深层次的逻辑。为什么有这些差别？看看京东的财报就知道了。一方面，京东2022Q1净亏损30亿元，2021Q4亏损52亿，两个季度接连亏损。京东的管理层在随后的电话会议中表示，今年会在管理层KPI上提高盈利的权重。另一方面，京东的用户增速也在放缓。京东过去12个月的活跃购买用户数达到5.805亿，而在去年四季度这一数字为5.697亿，环比增长仅为1.8%。相较于去年一年净增1亿，每个季度平均增长2500万，今年一季度京东的活跃用户仅增1080万，增长放缓明显。而阿里刚刚公布的AAC则已经达到了近10亿。而根据QuestMobile显示的数据，截至2022年Q1，我国移动互联网月活用户规模为11.83亿。而且，反超拼多多夺回用户数第一、离“天花板”最近的淘系用户数还在增长。截至2021年12月31日，阿里中国商业板块年度活跃消费者（AAC）单季增长了2000万。所以简单粗暴的理解：京东的主要任务还是流量的增长以及盈利能力的提升，而阿里重点是放在如何深耕这10亿“留量”。这也就顺理成章地解释了为什么京东还在拉“用户”；而阿里现在需要更深度服务商家，想办法让用户更多的沉浸在整个淘系生态。京东为什么不这么做，不能这么做，是因为自身的商业模式决定的。京东可以为消费者提供的物流服务，是因为京东的自营模式，商家入仓需要支付较高的物流仓储成本，更像个“批发商”，商家的货和货款都在京东手里，商家账期就是京东利润的调节器。而淘宝不同于这种模式。戴珊提出了一个概念——从交易到消费。她这样解释：“国内消费市场在当下存在着较大的波动性和不确定性。在这种不确定中，10亿AAC就是我们最大的优势和确定性，围绕10亿AAC，做用户深度渗透是我的第一选择。”落实到方法论，就是收拢和优化营销IP，投入产出比不清晰的项目会被砍掉，但像618、双11、双12这样投入产出比较大的项目会被持续优化并保留下来，更进一步发掘价值。“一起聚焦做更确定性的投入，让商家心里更有底，带来更多确定性的生意。”顺理成章，10亿用户仍有巨大价值可以运营：比如跨品类购买的新用户，让不同品类的商家都能更均衡地渗透、享受这10亿留量红利；持续孵化新品和新品牌，为消费者提供更多的消费选择；从交易到消费的新链路打通，提升10亿留量的用户时长，参与程度，用逛逛、直播等内容营销产品，让用户线上“逛商场”，更多的享受消费带来的乐趣，而非仅仅是交易上的便捷……简言之，体量更大的阿里面临的挑战与京东截然不同，前者选择和商家一起在充满不确定性的环境中寻找确定性，选择和商家一起活下去，一起成长。回归初心，让天下没有难做的生意。正如不同年龄的人面临不同人生挑战，不可同日而语。京东正在走的路阿里已经走过，而阿里要选的路或将关乎整个电商行业的新的探月工程。看淘宝，就是看电商的未来。而未来的答案，淘宝似乎选择向历史寻找。天猫Top Talk上，作为创始十八罗汉之一的戴珊再次提及了23年前阿里成立的初衷——让天下没有难做的生意。“虽然大环境颇具挑战，但我的初心始终不变，我们必须回归商家体验和生意发展本身，让商家做生意有奔头，有保障，更简单。”相信在当下，供应端的商家对这个初心都能产生更深层次的共鸣。5月16日，国新办公布了2022年4月份国民经济运行情况数据：4月份受到疫情影响，社会消费品零售总额同比下降11.1%。今年4月综合电商平台GMV 增速放缓，一些平台的补贴投放也因此适度减少。而从品类景气度来看，各品类增速表现均弱于3 月。虽是如此，网上购物仍是疫情之中人们参与消费的主要手段。国新办公布的今年1-4月份“实物商品网上零售额数据”显示：同比增长5.2%——虽然总体来看，电商、网上零售依旧保有生机，但店家与消费者的的信心都在不同程度上大幅受挫。一位服务于新消费品牌的营销人员向AI蓝媒汇坦言：“各大品牌其实都受到了影响，但又不得不拿出‘余粮’在618上做投入，因为这已经是为数不多的翻盘机会了。”显然距离商家最近的淘宝更深谙这一点，越是在困难的时候，越要帮助商家一起在不确定性中找到希望。戴珊为此给出了具体的措施：首先，是商品全生命周期价值最大化。平台从新品期、成长期、成熟期到尾货期给予全生命周期的深度运营，帮助商家发挥产品价值最大化；其次，是用新消费带来新生意。持续通过孵化新品牌为消费者提供更丰富、更优质的消费选择，帮助商家寻找新的空间；第三，是通过“简化规则、升级商家工具、降低商家成本”全面提升商家体验，从而达到“让生意更简单”的目的；最后，就是通过库存系统的打通，确保突发状况下的销售和履约确定性。同时也为淘系电商从“远场商业”提升到“远、中、近场相结合的综合商业”提供条件。总结下来，就是降本增效，过去已有的高效资源持续用，与时俱进地打造更多的“数字商业工具箱”。对比上午京东强调的软硬供应链能力的提升，阿里的“闭门会”虽然开得低调，但实则诚意满满。自信从何而来？或许除了体量更大，发展更成熟之外，还是要回归到阿里的初心逻辑上。“让天下没有难做的生意”，看似仅仅赋能商家，实则是抓住了消费下行逻辑下的核心动力——当平台用技术和模式更多地帮商家解决了后顾之忧，刺激了创新创造，那么平台就势必能为消费者提供更加升级的消费体验。这不仅仅是淘宝作为电商一哥自身成长的底层逻辑，其实也可以算得上反哺行业、带领中国消费电商基本盘穿越阴霾、走向突围的底层逻辑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9,"JD":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028645815,"gmtCreate":1653224040837,"gmtModify":1676535242386,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028645815","repostId":"1168811044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028645378,"gmtCreate":1653224026294,"gmtModify":1676535242394,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ss","listText":"ss","text":"ss","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028645378","repostId":"1116468133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116468133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1653219533,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116468133?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-22 19:38","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Is 40x PE expensive? Duan Yongping on Maotai's Valuation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116468133","media":"ETF进化论","summary":"两个月前，贵州茅台股价在1600元左右。从历史高点2608元下来，浓眉大眼的贵州茅台回撤了近40%。茅台的忠实粉丝——段永平，说最近又买了点贵州茅台，并称和大家看到的任何消息无关，甚至和股价也没有关系","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Two months ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The stock price is around 1600 yuan. From the historical high of 2,608 yuan, the pullback/retracement of Kweichow Moutai with thick eyebrows and big eyes has increased by nearly 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde074342727ebdc5beca70adda0a6e8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping, a loyal fan of Maotai, said that he recently bought some Kweichow Maotai, and said that it had nothing to do with any news you saw, or even the stock price, but just a little extra cash. I always feel that from the perspective of looking at 10 years, holding Maotai is a little better than holding cash in the bank.</p><p><b>1. Duan Yongping talks about Maotai's valuation</b></p><p>Who is Duan Yongping?</p><p>Born as an industrialist, he once founded Xiaobawang and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">BBK</a>Two well-known brands, four disciples: OPPO founder Chen Mingyong, VIVO founder Shen Wei, BBK CEO Jin Zhijiang and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Huang Zheng, the founder of, has a strong lineup.</p><p>Duan Yongping's experience is quite legendary. He has always been known as \"invisible rich man\" and \"China's Buffett\" in the market, and he is indeed the first Chinese to have lunch with the stock god.</p><p>In 2006, Duan Yongping bought a lunch opportunity with Buffett for $620,000 and became friends with Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f85dfb30830b51ec17c766c0e8791f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>Earned a hundred times, increased its holdings in Maotai in the plasticizer incident, and invested earlier than Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>。</p><p><b>What does Duan Yongping think of Maotai?</b></p><p>Maotai fell by more than 30%, and Duan Yongping was buying. He gave three reasons to buy: from the perspective of 1.10 years or more, I didn't find any A-share company better than Maotai; 2. It is a little better to hold Maotai than to hold cash in the bank; 3. Holding Maotai from a 10-year perspective has a high probability of outperforming inflation.</p><p><b>Duan Yongping has repeatedly said that holding Maotai from a 10-year perspective has a high probability of outperforming inflation.</b></p><p>In the past two years, people have been anxious about how to resist inflation. Buffett has given his own unique insights on how to choose companies for inflation.</p><p><b>Buffett said that when inflation breaks out, the characteristics of good businesses are:</b></p><p>First, products can increase in price. When the global price of raw materials soared in 2010, Buffett said that pricing power is the key to the success of enterprises. After the price increase, consumers will still buy it. Usually, only enterprises with monopoly brands or other intangible assets can do it. Such enterprises are strong enough to pass on the inflation cost through price increase.</p><p>Second, low capital expenditure. Because of asset-heavy enterprises, high inflation may lead to higher capital expenditure, eroded profits, and even negative cash flow.</p><p>Maotai products can increase in price and have low capital expenditure, so it is a good company. These have already reached a market consensus, but the buying price is very controversial. Kweichow Moutai's rolling P/E is 40 times, and its dynamic P/E is also 30 times.<b>Some investors asked Duan Yongping: What do you think of Maotai, which has a dynamic P/E of 30 times?</b></p><p>Duan Yongping replied,</p><p>It depends on what you think of 30 times P/E to buy enterprises with an annual profit growth rate of 10% in 30 years.</p><p>For companies with steady growth, this is almost a simple arithmetic problem. 10% annual growth rate, assuming that the profit before investment is 1, 30 times PE means investing 30, the total return in the 10th year is 17.5, and the 20th year is 63 (if I calculated correctly).</p><p>Moreover, Maotai's average growth of 10% is likely to be underestimated. If you have a sum of cash that you haven't used for a long time, where do you feel most comfortable investing it? Everyone's opportunity cost is different, so you can do it yourself.</p><p><b>Having said that, the market doesn't seem to buy it. Since the beginning of this year, the market is generally pessimistic about liquor and even the whole consumer industry.</b></p><p><b>2. The market is generally pessimistic about the consumer industry</b></p><p>Since 2022, the epidemic has repeated in some areas, and gatherings have decreased a lot. It is expected that the market will be greatly affected, and the liquor has no shelf life, but the market is generally worried about the inventory cycle.</p><p>Some netizens said that they investigated some liquor distributors in Guangdong, and the sales of some varieties dropped by 20% from April to May.</p><p>Tracking alcohol this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETF</a>Generally down more.</p><p>The Liquor ETF (512690) tracks the CSI Liquor Index (399987), which has achieved an annualized return of 25.33% over the past 17 years.</p><p>Wine ETF (512690) has also been an ETF with a strong trend in the past. Its heavyweight stocks are Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, with the highest pullback/retracement exceeding 30% this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08201fbac3ec198943f6a5b5b29d5654\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"875\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b2d7c2100edcada3f02682a113a389\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(The contents of this article are all objective data and information, which are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice)</p><p>The food and beverage ETF (515170) listed on December 30, 2020 is also falling, with heavyweight stocks Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600887\">Yili Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000568\">Luzhou Old Cellar</a>Shanxi Fenjiu and Haitian Flavor Industry, the top ten weighted liquors account for half of the country, with the highest pullback/retracement of 35%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dc438bb05f9112187492ebe1336b0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"895\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1be23642d7f15226909d62d2b0c327\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As we all know, food and beverage has always been the birthplace of bull stocks, and the food and beverage index has performed brightly in the past 20 years. However, from the food and beverage industry, the birthplace of big bull stocks in the global market, bull stocks are not only wine, but also many big food enterprises.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the market value of listed liquor and spirits companies in the world, Chinese liquor enterprises have a large market value, and at present, China's liquor ranks first in the world.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cf3e626cf41976258d8c52b4edf2f7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Other sub-sectors, such as food, have not seen world giants.</p><p>China is one of the world's largest consumer markets, with a population of 1.4 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>The subdivision related to food, clothing, housing and transportation, the probability of world-class enterprises in the future is naturally not small.</p><p>This also tests the weight arrangement of index funds by major institutions. If it can be relatively balanced, in China's huge consumer market, I believe that the ETF in this long bull track is still worth looking forward to.</p><p>Compared with wine ETFs and food and beverage ETFs, automobile ETFs are relatively strong recently, because they benefit from the stimulus of a new round of cars going to the countryside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca9545609721d60ce521be2f587c907a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Consumption coupons promote consumption</b></p><p>Not long ago, at the Tsinghua PBC Chief Economist Forum, the famous economist Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Presented:</p><p>1. The effect of promoting consumption is better than that of infrastructure investment. Issuing coupons can directly improve residents' consumption power and consumption desire. 2. The contribution of domestic disposable income to GDP is much lower than the global average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a95ee78f48294f44cb1a2621fe03a07\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>(China is the 2021 data, Thailand is the 2019 data, and other countries are the 2020 data) At the same time, the leverage ratio of domestic government departments is only about one-third of that of the United States and one-sixth of that of Japan. Therefore, there should be a sufficient margin of safety to issue vouchers by increasing fiscal expenditure. Issuing vouchers can improve the income situation of the residential sector in the short term, especially during the pandemic. Let the masses be able to consume, dare to consume and be willing to consume. If consumer coupons are used to stimulate consumption, can the market's pessimism about the consumer industry be changed? Can the consumer industry still usher in a second spring?</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1653219549182","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is 40x PE expensive? Duan Yongping on Maotai's Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs 40x PE expensive? Duan Yongping on Maotai's Valuation\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">ETF进化论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-05-22 19:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Two months ago,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">Kweichow Moutai</a>The stock price is around 1600 yuan. From the historical high of 2,608 yuan, the pullback/retracement of Kweichow Moutai with thick eyebrows and big eyes has increased by nearly 40%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde074342727ebdc5beca70adda0a6e8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping, a loyal fan of Maotai, said that he recently bought some Kweichow Maotai, and said that it had nothing to do with any news you saw, or even the stock price, but just a little extra cash. I always feel that from the perspective of looking at 10 years, holding Maotai is a little better than holding cash in the bank.</p><p><b>1. Duan Yongping talks about Maotai's valuation</b></p><p>Who is Duan Yongping?</p><p>Born as an industrialist, he once founded Xiaobawang and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002251\">BBK</a>Two well-known brands, four disciples: OPPO founder Chen Mingyong, VIVO founder Shen Wei, BBK CEO Jin Zhijiang and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Huang Zheng, the founder of, has a strong lineup.</p><p>Duan Yongping's experience is quite legendary. He has always been known as \"invisible rich man\" and \"China's Buffett\" in the market, and he is indeed the first Chinese to have lunch with the stock god.</p><p>In 2006, Duan Yongping bought a lunch opportunity with Buffett for $620,000 and became friends with Buffett.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f85dfb30830b51ec17c766c0e8791f0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping in<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">Netease</a>Earned a hundred times, increased its holdings in Maotai in the plasticizer incident, and invested earlier than Buffett<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>。</p><p><b>What does Duan Yongping think of Maotai?</b></p><p>Maotai fell by more than 30%, and Duan Yongping was buying. He gave three reasons to buy: from the perspective of 1.10 years or more, I didn't find any A-share company better than Maotai; 2. It is a little better to hold Maotai than to hold cash in the bank; 3. Holding Maotai from a 10-year perspective has a high probability of outperforming inflation.</p><p><b>Duan Yongping has repeatedly said that holding Maotai from a 10-year perspective has a high probability of outperforming inflation.</b></p><p>In the past two years, people have been anxious about how to resist inflation. Buffett has given his own unique insights on how to choose companies for inflation.</p><p><b>Buffett said that when inflation breaks out, the characteristics of good businesses are:</b></p><p>First, products can increase in price. When the global price of raw materials soared in 2010, Buffett said that pricing power is the key to the success of enterprises. After the price increase, consumers will still buy it. Usually, only enterprises with monopoly brands or other intangible assets can do it. Such enterprises are strong enough to pass on the inflation cost through price increase.</p><p>Second, low capital expenditure. Because of asset-heavy enterprises, high inflation may lead to higher capital expenditure, eroded profits, and even negative cash flow.</p><p>Maotai products can increase in price and have low capital expenditure, so it is a good company. These have already reached a market consensus, but the buying price is very controversial. Kweichow Moutai's rolling P/E is 40 times, and its dynamic P/E is also 30 times.<b>Some investors asked Duan Yongping: What do you think of Maotai, which has a dynamic P/E of 30 times?</b></p><p>Duan Yongping replied,</p><p>It depends on what you think of 30 times P/E to buy enterprises with an annual profit growth rate of 10% in 30 years.</p><p>For companies with steady growth, this is almost a simple arithmetic problem. 10% annual growth rate, assuming that the profit before investment is 1, 30 times PE means investing 30, the total return in the 10th year is 17.5, and the 20th year is 63 (if I calculated correctly).</p><p>Moreover, Maotai's average growth of 10% is likely to be underestimated. If you have a sum of cash that you haven't used for a long time, where do you feel most comfortable investing it? Everyone's opportunity cost is different, so you can do it yourself.</p><p><b>Having said that, the market doesn't seem to buy it. Since the beginning of this year, the market is generally pessimistic about liquor and even the whole consumer industry.</b></p><p><b>2. The market is generally pessimistic about the consumer industry</b></p><p>Since 2022, the epidemic has repeated in some areas, and gatherings have decreased a lot. It is expected that the market will be greatly affected, and the liquor has no shelf life, but the market is generally worried about the inventory cycle.</p><p>Some netizens said that they investigated some liquor distributors in Guangdong, and the sales of some varieties dropped by 20% from April to May.</p><p>Tracking alcohol this year<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSFF\">Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF | ETF</a>Generally down more.</p><p>The Liquor ETF (512690) tracks the CSI Liquor Index (399987), which has achieved an annualized return of 25.33% over the past 17 years.</p><p>Wine ETF (512690) has also been an ETF with a strong trend in the past. Its heavyweight stocks are Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, with the highest pullback/retracement exceeding 30% this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08201fbac3ec198943f6a5b5b29d5654\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"875\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4b2d7c2100edcada3f02682a113a389\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(The contents of this article are all objective data and information, which are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice)</p><p>The food and beverage ETF (515170) listed on December 30, 2020 is also falling, with heavyweight stocks Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600887\">Yili Shares</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000568\">Luzhou Old Cellar</a>Shanxi Fenjiu and Haitian Flavor Industry, the top ten weighted liquors account for half of the country, with the highest pullback/retracement of 35%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dc438bb05f9112187492ebe1336b0e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"895\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1be23642d7f15226909d62d2b0c327\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>As we all know, food and beverage has always been the birthplace of bull stocks, and the food and beverage index has performed brightly in the past 20 years. However, from the food and beverage industry, the birthplace of big bull stocks in the global market, bull stocks are not only wine, but also many big food enterprises.</b></p><p><b>Judging from the market value of listed liquor and spirits companies in the world, Chinese liquor enterprises have a large market value, and at present, China's liquor ranks first in the world.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38cf3e626cf41976258d8c52b4edf2f7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Other sub-sectors, such as food, have not seen world giants.</p><p>China is one of the world's largest consumer markets, with a population of 1.4 billion.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603883\">Ordinary people</a>The subdivision related to food, clothing, housing and transportation, the probability of world-class enterprises in the future is naturally not small.</p><p>This also tests the weight arrangement of index funds by major institutions. If it can be relatively balanced, in China's huge consumer market, I believe that the ETF in this long bull track is still worth looking forward to.</p><p>Compared with wine ETFs and food and beverage ETFs, automobile ETFs are relatively strong recently, because they benefit from the stimulus of a new round of cars going to the countryside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca9545609721d60ce521be2f587c907a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. Consumption coupons promote consumption</b></p><p>Not long ago, at the Tsinghua PBC Chief Economist Forum, the famous economist Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Thunder</a>Presented:</p><p>1. The effect of promoting consumption is better than that of infrastructure investment. Issuing coupons can directly improve residents' consumption power and consumption desire. 2. The contribution of domestic disposable income to GDP is much lower than the global average.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a95ee78f48294f44cb1a2621fe03a07\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"299\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>(China is the 2021 data, Thailand is the 2019 data, and other countries are the 2020 data) At the same time, the leverage ratio of domestic government departments is only about one-third of that of the United States and one-sixth of that of Japan. Therefore, there should be a sufficient margin of safety to issue vouchers by increasing fiscal expenditure. Issuing vouchers can improve the income situation of the residential sector in the short term, especially during the pandemic. Let the masses be able to consume, dare to consume and be willing to consume. If consumer coupons are used to stimulate consumption, can the market's pessimism about the consumer industry be changed? Can the consumer industry still usher in a second spring?</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/65cy5ceS8FGT4xUmdDi2jQ\">ETF进化论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aba16b4f88c90908701f4ff26fee613c","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/65cy5ceS8FGT4xUmdDi2jQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116468133","content_text":"两个月前，贵州茅台股价在1600元左右。从历史高点2608元下来，浓眉大眼的贵州茅台回撤了近40%。茅台的忠实粉丝——段永平，说最近又买了点贵州茅台，并称和大家看到的任何消息无关，甚至和股价也没有关系，只是正好有点多余现金。总觉得从看10年的角度，拿着茅台比拿着现金存在银行要好一点点。1、段永平谈茅台估值段永平何许人也？实业家出身，曾以创立小霸王和步步高两个知名品牌，四大门徒：OPPO创始人陈明永、VIVO创始人沈炜、步步高CEO金志江和拼多多的创始人黄峥，阵容强大。段永平的经历颇为传奇，在坊间一直被誉为“隐形富豪”，素有“中国巴菲特”之称，而他的确是首位与股神共进午餐的华人。2006年，段永平以62万美元的价格，拍下和巴菲特共进午餐机会，与巴菲特成为朋友。段永平在网易上赚了百倍，在塑化剂事件中大举增持茅台，比巴菲特更早投资了苹果。段永平是怎么看茅台的？茅台下跌超30%，段永平在买入，他给出了3个买入理由：1.10年或更久的角度看，我没发现任何A股公司比茅台好；2.拿着茅台比拿着现金存在银行要好一点点；3.以10年的角度持有茅台，大概率可以跑赢通胀。段永平多次表示，以10年的角度持有茅台，大概率可以跑赢通胀。近两年人们都很焦虑要如何抵抗通胀，巴菲特关于通胀如何选公司给出过自己独到的见解。巴菲特说，通胀大爆发时，好企业特征是：第一，产品能够涨价。2010年全球原材料价格大涨时，巴菲特说定价权就是企业胜负的关键，涨价后消费者还会购买，通常具有垄断品牌，或有其他无形资产的企业才有办法办到，这类企业足够强势，可以通过涨价将通胀成本转嫁出去。第二，低资本支出。因为重资产企业，高通胀可能导致资本支出更高，利润被侵蚀，甚至现金流转负。茅台产品能涨价、资本支出低，是好公司，这些早已达成市场共识，但在买入价格上争议很大。贵州茅台滚动市盈率40倍，动态市盈率也有30倍。有投资者问段永平：如何看待动态市盈率30倍的茅台？段永平回答：就是看你怎么看待30倍市盈率买入30年利润每年增长率10％的企业。对有稳定成长的公司而言，这几乎就是道简单的算术题。10%的年增长率，假设投之前的盈利是1的话，30倍PE就意味着投入30，第10年的回报总和就是17.5，第20年是63（如果我没算错的话）。而且，茅台10%的平均成长很可能低估了。假如你有一笔现金，长期没有使用计划，你觉得投在哪里最舒服？每个人的机会成本都不一样，自己看着办吧。话虽如此，但市场似乎不买账，今年以来市场对白酒乃至整个消费行业普遍悲观。2、市场对消费行业普遍悲观2022年以来，部分地区疫情反复，聚会也变少了很多。市场预期白酒受到不小影响，白酒没有保质期，但市场普遍担心库存周期的问题。有网友称，其调研广东一些白酒经销商，部分品种4-5月份销量下降了20%。今年跟踪酒类的Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF普遍下跌较多。酒ETF（512690）跟踪的是中证酒指数（399987），过去17年中证酒指数年化收益高达25.33%。酒ETF（512690）过去也是一直走势很强的ETF，其重仓股是贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖和山西汾酒，今年最高回撤超30%。（本文内容均为客观数据和信息罗列，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议）2020年12月30日上市的食品饮料ETF（515170）也在下跌，重仓股贵州茅台、五粮液、伊利股份、泸州老窖、山西汾酒和海天味业，前十大权重白酒占据了半壁江山，最高回撤了35%。众所周知，食品饮料历来是牛股诞生地，过去20年食品饮料指数表现亮眼。然而从全球市场大牛股诞生地——食品饮料行业来看，牛股并不仅仅是酒，还有很多大的食品企业。从全球白酒烈酒上市公司市值来看，中国白酒企业市值较大，目前中国的酒类是世界第一。其他诸如食品等细分行业，均未出现世界巨头。而中国是全球最大消费市场之一，拥有14亿人口，除了白酒行业，其他跟老百姓衣食住行相关的细分，今后出现世界级企业概率自然也不小。这也很考验各大机构对指数基金的权重编排，如果能相对均衡去配比，在中国庞大的消费市场里，相信在这个长牛赛道的ETF还是值得期待。相比较酒ETF、食品饮料ETF，最近汽车ETF比较强势，原因是受益于新一轮汽车下乡的刺激。3、消费券促消费前不久，在清华五道口首席经济学家论坛上，著名经济学家李迅雷提出：1.促消费的效果要比基建投资更好。发放消费券能更直接地提高居民的消费能力和消费欲望。2.国内居民可支配收入对GDP的贡献远低于全球平均水平。（中国为2021年数据，泰国为2019年数据，其他国家均为2020年数据）与此同时，国内政府部门的杠杆率水平，大概只有美国的三分之一，日本的六分之一。因此，通过增加财政支出的方式来发消费券，应该具有足够的安全边际。发放消费券可以在短期内改善居民部门的收入状况，尤其在疫情期间。让群众能消费、敢消费、愿消费。倘若用消费券来刺激消费，市场对消费行业的悲观情绪能否改观？消费行业还能迎来第二春吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809788656,"gmtCreate":1627393278175,"gmtModify":1703489035298,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809788656","repostId":"1176379452","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165178181,"gmtCreate":1624111590243,"gmtModify":1703828961085,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165178181","repostId":"2144170319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144170319","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624086714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144170319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting COVID-19) The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, posing a challenge to its 70% adult vaccination target.</p><p>WASHINGTON, June 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on Tuesday that the United States has administered 300 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine within 150 days of taking office.</p><p>Speaking about the pandemic that day, Biden said, \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to have a very different summer. A bright and joyful summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of the 18th, the United States had accumulated more than 33.51 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 601,000 deaths. Currently, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States over seven days is approximately 12,000 and 300, respectively.</p><p>Despite a significant improvement in the pandemic, the American public's willingness to get vaccinated has decreased, posing a challenge to another of the Biden administration's anti-pandemic goals. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. There are 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, but this figure is still 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The report points out that the aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the average number of vaccinations administered in the United States over 7 days is about 1.1 million doses, far below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden pointed out that regions with high vaccination rates in the United States have seen significant declines in mortality and hospitalization rates. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>Data released by the White House on the 18th showed that more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the vaccination rate for one dose of the vaccine in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other states is currently less than 50%.</p><p>Biden also pointed out that the COVID-19 variant is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 variants will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. Faced with highly dangerous and highly transmissible mutated viruses, full vaccination remains the \"best way\" to protect oneself.</p><p>“On July 4th, we will celebrate our independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We hope everyone can do that,” Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House announced that a 1,000-person celebration would be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical workers, rescue workers, and their families on the front lines of the fight against the pandemic. This will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting COVID-19) The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, posing a challenge to its 70% adult vaccination target.</p><p>WASHINGTON, June 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on Tuesday that the United States has administered 300 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine within 150 days of taking office.</p><p>Speaking about the pandemic that day, Biden said, \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to have a very different summer. A bright and joyful summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of the 18th, the United States had accumulated more than 33.51 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 601,000 deaths. Currently, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States over seven days is approximately 12,000 and 300, respectively.</p><p>Despite a significant improvement in the pandemic, the American public's willingness to get vaccinated has decreased, posing a challenge to another of the Biden administration's anti-pandemic goals. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. There are 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, but this figure is still 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The report points out that the aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the average number of vaccinations administered in the United States over 7 days is about 1.1 million doses, far below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden pointed out that regions with high vaccination rates in the United States have seen significant declines in mortality and hospitalization rates. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>Data released by the White House on the 18th showed that more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the vaccination rate for one dose of the vaccine in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other states is currently less than 50%.</p><p>Biden also pointed out that the COVID-19 variant is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 variants will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. Faced with highly dangerous and highly transmissible mutated viruses, full vaccination remains the \"best way\" to protect oneself.</p><p>“On July 4th, we will celebrate our independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We hope everyone can do that,” Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House announced that a 1,000-person celebration would be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical workers, rescue workers, and their families on the front lines of the fight against the pandemic. This will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165178908,"gmtCreate":1624111572204,"gmtModify":1703828960924,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165178908","repostId":"2144170319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144170319","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624086714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144170319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting COVID-19) The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, posing a challenge to its 70% adult vaccination target.</p><p>WASHINGTON, June 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on Tuesday that the United States has administered 300 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine within 150 days of taking office.</p><p>Speaking about the pandemic that day, Biden said, \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to have a very different summer. A bright and joyful summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of the 18th, the United States had accumulated more than 33.51 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 601,000 deaths. Currently, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States over seven days is approximately 12,000 and 300, respectively.</p><p>Despite a significant improvement in the pandemic, the American public's willingness to get vaccinated has decreased, posing a challenge to another of the Biden administration's anti-pandemic goals. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. There are 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, but this figure is still 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The report points out that the aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the average number of vaccinations administered in the United States over 7 days is about 1.1 million doses, far below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden pointed out that regions with high vaccination rates in the United States have seen significant declines in mortality and hospitalization rates. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>Data released by the White House on the 18th showed that more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the vaccination rate for one dose of the vaccine in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other states is currently less than 50%.</p><p>Biden also pointed out that the COVID-19 variant is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 variants will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. Faced with highly dangerous and highly transmissible mutated viruses, full vaccination remains the \"best way\" to protect oneself.</p><p>“On July 4th, we will celebrate our independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We hope everyone can do that,” Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House announced that a 1,000-person celebration would be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical workers, rescue workers, and their families on the front lines of the fight against the pandemic. This will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting COVID-19) The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, posing a challenge to its 70% adult vaccination target.</p><p>WASHINGTON, June 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on Tuesday that the United States has administered 300 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine within 150 days of taking office.</p><p>Speaking about the pandemic that day, Biden said, \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to have a very different summer. A bright and joyful summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of the 18th, the United States had accumulated more than 33.51 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 601,000 deaths. Currently, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States over seven days is approximately 12,000 and 300, respectively.</p><p>Despite a significant improvement in the pandemic, the American public's willingness to get vaccinated has decreased, posing a challenge to another of the Biden administration's anti-pandemic goals. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. There are 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, but this figure is still 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The report points out that the aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the average number of vaccinations administered in the United States over 7 days is about 1.1 million doses, far below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden pointed out that regions with high vaccination rates in the United States have seen significant declines in mortality and hospitalization rates. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>Data released by the White House on the 18th showed that more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the vaccination rate for one dose of the vaccine in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other states is currently less than 50%.</p><p>Biden also pointed out that the COVID-19 variant is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 variants will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. Faced with highly dangerous and highly transmissible mutated viruses, full vaccination remains the \"best way\" to protect oneself.</p><p>“On July 4th, we will celebrate our independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We hope everyone can do that,” Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House announced that a 1,000-person celebration would be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical workers, rescue workers, and their families on the front lines of the fight against the pandemic. This will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160972592,"gmtCreate":1623770967816,"gmtModify":1703818973250,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581892856246833","idStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160972592","repostId":"1169602512","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169602512","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623766296,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169602512?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 22:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"All eyes! Fed meeting hit heavily, US stock turmoil is on the verge of breaking out?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169602512","media":"腾讯美股","summary":"美联储到底会表现出怎样的态度，不单单关乎他们自己的信誉，对于拜登总统的经济改革前景，乃至于全球金融稳定性也都有着不小的影响。\n\n\n最近一段时间以来，美联储的货币政策会议其实颇多都只是在走过场而已，但是","content":"<p><i>What attitude the Fed will show in the end is not only about their own credibility, but also has a big impact on President Biden's economic reform prospects and even global financial stability.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc344fe6e243ed2e64063f21c4a4307d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Recently, many of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meetings have actually been just formalities, but this week is different, and suddenly it has become a real test. Mohamed El-Erian, a famous economist, wrote that this time everyone will pay close attention to the meeting to determine whether the Fed can continue to control the narrative they have been instilling in the market-that the current high inflation is only temporary.</p><p>What attitude the Fed will show in the end is not only related to their own credibility, but also has a big impact on President Biden's economic reform prospects and even global financial stability.</p><p>The continuous development of the situation has forced the Fed into a self-created dilemma-they have always promised to consider tightening monetary policy only if they see real evidence that employment and inflation have reached the target level. The expected improvement alone is not enough to be a reason for action, which is the so-called results-based policy framework; Now, however, the economic recovery is increasingly strong, challenging precisely their commitment.</p><p>While a variety of longer-term variables remain, objectively speaking, the transparency of the recovery in the United States is increasing.</p><p>Consumption in both the public and private sectors is growing dramatically, driving a rapid increase in aggregate demand, while corporate investment and manufacturing exports are on the rise. It should be said that the supply side has responded to changes in demand, but the strength is still insufficient.</p><p>This has created a series of problems: supply bottlenecks, inventory problems, and transportation challenges. At the same time, the booming demand for additional staffing has also hit the cold reality that while the number of vacant jobs has reached record levels, too few people have the ability or will to fill the gaps.</p><p>Some of these trends are short-term and must be reversed in the short term. Otherwise, wages and prices are likely to rise sharply, with a series of negative effects.</p><p>One of the key points of last week's economic data was the consumer price report, which once again showed that inflation in the United States was growing faster than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in May and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in the core segment. Inflation is rising faster than many expected, and this is confirmed again.</p><p>But at the same time, despite growing concerns about the scale and pace of inflation, U.S. government bond yields have fallen rapidly.</p><p>Some opinions suggest that this is a sign that the market is beginning to agree with the US central bank's narrative that the current price increase is only temporary, so this is actually good news for the Fed. Although this interpretation cannot be said to be unreasonable, it is obviously untenable to place too high expectations on it.</p><p>Indeed, one of the loudest warnings in markets over the past few years has been that highly anti-traditional policies by central banks will lead to significant and prolonged yield suppression, distorting market signals. Specifically, this action occurs in two ways.</p><p>First of all, the central bank has vigorously and predictably continued to buy securities, which makes many people in the market feel at ease that the suppression of bond yields will exist for a long time. In particular, the central bank has fully proved that they do so without the slightest consideration of profit, so they don't care whether the price at the time of buying is too high. Second, with ultra-low benchmark interest rates, investors have to turn to longer-term bonds in search of higher yields.</p><p>When the central bank not only repeats this operation, but also repeatedly emphasizes its super-loose policy forward-looking guidance, these two effects will be more obvious.</p><p>As far as the specific situation of the Federal Reserve is concerned, there are roughly three main points in this blowing: First, it repeatedly emphasizes that it has never thought of any possibility of reducing bond purchases; The second is to promise that the zero interest rate will remain as long as possible; The third is to shift to a results-based monetary policy framework.</p><p>Under the combined effect of these three, there is a scene that despite the warning of economic reality, the market is still full of confidence in the expectation of a super-loose financial environment.</p><p>This misalignment of liquidity allocation is certainly welcomed by stock market investors, as well as corporate and emerging market bond investors. One of the main effects of this architecture is to in fact encourage people to look for opportunities in a variety of riskier areas.</p><p>Needless to say, however, this architecture also has its intrinsic risks. In fact, the success or failure of the situation is highly dependent on the judgment of the Fed, that is, the surge in inflation in the United States must be shown to be only temporary, and this is obviously not enough by will alone. Once the Fed makes a mistake, their reputation will be severely damaged, which is crucial to the effectiveness of their future policies.</p><p>One of the biggest risks for the Fed, for example, is that once they find themselves misjudged, they will be forced to press the monetary policy brakes quickly, making a recession more likely. In addition, it is completely conceivable that the financial market will fluctuate sharply in the future, which is obviously not conducive to maintaining stable and high economic growth.</p><p>Finally, this uneven mix of policies will also drain the Biden administration's various economic and social reforms, making it difficult to achieve the goals of eradicating poverty and increasing productivity.</p><p>It would be a big mistake to think that the market's lack of reaction to inflation risks means that the latter is not a threat in the first place. Indeed, it's a reluctant trust in the Fed's capacity — the market's belief that they can distort prices for longer. However, this idea poses a risk in itself, and perhaps everyone should be reminded that when it comes to inflation, we must be a little more open-minded and with proper humility.</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All eyes! Fed meeting hit heavily, US stock turmoil is on the verge of breaking out?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll eyes! Fed meeting hit heavily, US stock turmoil is on the verge of breaking out?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯美股</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 22:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>What attitude the Fed will show in the end is not only about their own credibility, but also has a big impact on President Biden's economic reform prospects and even global financial stability.</i><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc344fe6e243ed2e64063f21c4a4307d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Recently, many of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meetings have actually been just formalities, but this week is different, and suddenly it has become a real test. Mohamed El-Erian, a famous economist, wrote that this time everyone will pay close attention to the meeting to determine whether the Fed can continue to control the narrative they have been instilling in the market-that the current high inflation is only temporary.</p><p>What attitude the Fed will show in the end is not only related to their own credibility, but also has a big impact on President Biden's economic reform prospects and even global financial stability.</p><p>The continuous development of the situation has forced the Fed into a self-created dilemma-they have always promised to consider tightening monetary policy only if they see real evidence that employment and inflation have reached the target level. The expected improvement alone is not enough to be a reason for action, which is the so-called results-based policy framework; Now, however, the economic recovery is increasingly strong, challenging precisely their commitment.</p><p>While a variety of longer-term variables remain, objectively speaking, the transparency of the recovery in the United States is increasing.</p><p>Consumption in both the public and private sectors is growing dramatically, driving a rapid increase in aggregate demand, while corporate investment and manufacturing exports are on the rise. It should be said that the supply side has responded to changes in demand, but the strength is still insufficient.</p><p>This has created a series of problems: supply bottlenecks, inventory problems, and transportation challenges. At the same time, the booming demand for additional staffing has also hit the cold reality that while the number of vacant jobs has reached record levels, too few people have the ability or will to fill the gaps.</p><p>Some of these trends are short-term and must be reversed in the short term. Otherwise, wages and prices are likely to rise sharply, with a series of negative effects.</p><p>One of the key points of last week's economic data was the consumer price report, which once again showed that inflation in the United States was growing faster than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in May and a year-on-year increase of 3.8% in the core segment. Inflation is rising faster than many expected, and this is confirmed again.</p><p>But at the same time, despite growing concerns about the scale and pace of inflation, U.S. government bond yields have fallen rapidly.</p><p>Some opinions suggest that this is a sign that the market is beginning to agree with the US central bank's narrative that the current price increase is only temporary, so this is actually good news for the Fed. Although this interpretation cannot be said to be unreasonable, it is obviously untenable to place too high expectations on it.</p><p>Indeed, one of the loudest warnings in markets over the past few years has been that highly anti-traditional policies by central banks will lead to significant and prolonged yield suppression, distorting market signals. Specifically, this action occurs in two ways.</p><p>First of all, the central bank has vigorously and predictably continued to buy securities, which makes many people in the market feel at ease that the suppression of bond yields will exist for a long time. In particular, the central bank has fully proved that they do so without the slightest consideration of profit, so they don't care whether the price at the time of buying is too high. Second, with ultra-low benchmark interest rates, investors have to turn to longer-term bonds in search of higher yields.</p><p>When the central bank not only repeats this operation, but also repeatedly emphasizes its super-loose policy forward-looking guidance, these two effects will be more obvious.</p><p>As far as the specific situation of the Federal Reserve is concerned, there are roughly three main points in this blowing: First, it repeatedly emphasizes that it has never thought of any possibility of reducing bond purchases; The second is to promise that the zero interest rate will remain as long as possible; The third is to shift to a results-based monetary policy framework.</p><p>Under the combined effect of these three, there is a scene that despite the warning of economic reality, the market is still full of confidence in the expectation of a super-loose financial environment.</p><p>This misalignment of liquidity allocation is certainly welcomed by stock market investors, as well as corporate and emerging market bond investors. One of the main effects of this architecture is to in fact encourage people to look for opportunities in a variety of riskier areas.</p><p>Needless to say, however, this architecture also has its intrinsic risks. In fact, the success or failure of the situation is highly dependent on the judgment of the Fed, that is, the surge in inflation in the United States must be shown to be only temporary, and this is obviously not enough by will alone. Once the Fed makes a mistake, their reputation will be severely damaged, which is crucial to the effectiveness of their future policies.</p><p>One of the biggest risks for the Fed, for example, is that once they find themselves misjudged, they will be forced to press the monetary policy brakes quickly, making a recession more likely. In addition, it is completely conceivable that the financial market will fluctuate sharply in the future, which is obviously not conducive to maintaining stable and high economic growth.</p><p>Finally, this uneven mix of policies will also drain the Biden administration's various economic and social reforms, making it difficult to achieve the goals of eradicating poverty and increasing productivity.</p><p>It would be a big mistake to think that the market's lack of reaction to inflation risks means that the latter is not a threat in the first place. Indeed, it's a reluctant trust in the Fed's capacity — the market's belief that they can distort prices for longer. However, this idea poses a risk in itself, and perhaps everyone should be reminded that when it comes to inflation, we must be a little more open-minded and with proper humility.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YpIeFpsNTeMYTFsQF-MdXg\">腾讯美股</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a5ce75491d6450131e7fe1ba690b539","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/YpIeFpsNTeMYTFsQF-MdXg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169602512","content_text":"美联储到底会表现出怎样的态度，不单单关乎他们自己的信誉，对于拜登总统的经济改革前景，乃至于全球金融稳定性也都有着不小的影响。\n\n\n最近一段时间以来，美联储的货币政策会议其实颇多都只是在走过场而已，但是本周这次却不同，突然变成了一场实实在在的考验。著名经济学家埃里安（Mohamed El-Erian）撰文指出，这次大家将密切关注会议，以确定联储是否还能够继续控制住他们一直以来灌输给市场的叙事——当下的通货膨胀高企只是暂时性的。\n联储到底会表现出怎样的态度，不单单关乎他们自己的信誉，对于拜登总统的经济改革前景，乃至于全球金融稳定性也都有着不小的影响。\n局面的不断发展已经将联储逼进了一个自我制造的困境之中——他们一直以来都承诺只有看到真实的证据，显示就业和通货膨胀都已经达到目标水平，才会考虑收紧货币政策，单单预期的提升是不足以成为行动理由的，这也就是所谓基于结果的政策架构；然而现在，经济复苏日益凸显出强势，恰恰对他们的承诺构成了挑战。\n虽然各种较为长期的变数依然存在，但是客观来说，美国经济复苏的透明度正在日益提升。\n无论是公共还是私营部门，消费都在大幅增长，带动总需求迅速提升，而与此同时，企业投资和制造出口都呈现出抬头的态势。应该说，供应面已经对需求的变化做出了反应，但是力度依然不够充分。\n由此就造成了一系列的问题：供应瓶颈、库存问题，以及交通运输方面的挑战等。与此同时，企业增加人手的旺盛需求也撞上了冰冷的现实——虽然空缺岗位的数量达到了创纪录的水平，但是有能力或者有意愿去填补这些缺口的人却太少了。\n这些趋势当中，有一部分只是短期性的，而且也必须在短期内得到扭转。不然的话，工资和价格恐怕就将大幅度上涨，产生一系列消极影响。\n上周的经济数据要点之一就是消费者价格报告，后者再度显示，美国的通货膨胀增长速度超过了预期，同比增幅5月间达到了5%，核心部分同比增幅为3.8%。通货膨胀抬头的速度要超过许多人的预想，由此再度得到了证实。\n可是与此同时，虽然大家对通货膨胀的规模和发展速度都越来越感到担心，但是美国政府债券的收益率却迅速降低了。\n有些意见认为，这正说明市场开始同意美国央行的叙事，即当前的价格上涨只是暂时性的，因此这对于联储其实是一个好消息。虽然这样的解读不能说没有道理，但是对此寄予过高期待显然是站不住脚的。\n事实上，过去几年以来，市场上最响亮的警告声之一就是，各家央行高度反传统的政策会导致收益率受到重大和长期的压制，扭曲市场信号。具体来说，这种作用有两种发生的途径。\n首先，央行大力度地，而且是可预见地持续购买证券，让市场上许多人感到安心，相信对债券收益率的压制力将长期存在，尤其是央行还充分证明，他们这么做没有丝毫利润方面的考虑，因此也根本不在乎买进时的价格是否过高。其次，超低的基准利率之下，投资者为了寻求更高的收益率，只好转向那些更长期的债券。\n当央行不但重复着这样的操作，而且还重复强调其超级宽松的政策前瞻指引，这两种效应就会体现得更加明显。\n就联储的具体情况而言，这种吹风大致是有三个要点：一是反复强调自己根本就没有想过任何缩减购债力度的可能性；二是承诺零利率会保持尽可能长的时间；三是转向基于结果的货币政策架构。\n在这三者的联合作用之下，便出现了虽然经济现实发出警告，但是市场依然对超级宽松金融环境预期信心满满的一幕。\n这种流动性配置的错位当然是受到股市投资者，以及企业债券和新兴市场债券投资者的欢迎的。这种架构的最主要影响之一，就是事实上鼓励大家去各种风险较高的领域寻找机会。\n不过不必说，这种架构也有其内涵的风险。事实上，局面的成败是高度取决于联储的判断力的，即美国的通货膨胀猛增必须被证明只是暂时性的，而这一点，单单靠意愿显然是不够的。一旦联储出现了失误，则他们的声誉就会严重受损，而后者对于他们未来政策效力的发挥是至关重要的。\n比如，联储很大的风险之一就在于，一旦他们发现自己判断失误，就只能被迫迅速踩下货币政策刹车，使得衰退发生的可能性加大。此外，未来金融市场大幅波动也是完全可以想见的，这显然也不利于维持经济的稳定高增长。\n最后，这种不均衡的政策组合还会对拜登政府的各种经济和社会改革起到釜底抽薪的作用，使得改革消除贫困，提升生产率的目标难以达成。\n如果觉得市场对通货膨胀风险的反应并不剧烈，是说明后者原本也不成其为威胁，那就大错特错了。事实上，这是对联储能力的一种勉勉强强的信任——市场相信他们能够在更长时间内扭曲价格。可是，这想法本身就构成了一种风险，也许大家都该得到提醒，知道在通货膨胀问题上，大家的思路必须再开阔一点，必须保持适当的谦恭。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"QID":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":377589381,"gmtCreate":1619535555643,"gmtModify":1704725624989,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh nice","listText":"Oh nice","text":"Oh nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/377589381","repostId":"1184721911","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184721911","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619535073,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184721911?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-04-27 22:51","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Dushulang Education Holdings submitted a listing application to the HKEx","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184721911","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据港交所文件：中国K12教育科技公司读书郎教育控股向港交所提交上市申请书，中信建投及麦格理为联席保荐人。","content":"<p>According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents: Dushulang Education Holdings, a Chinese K12 education technology company, submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">CITIC Construction Investment</a>and Macquarie as joint sponsors.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dushulang Education Holdings submitted a listing application to the HKEx</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDushulang Education Holdings submitted a listing application to the HKEx\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-27 22:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange documents: Dushulang Education Holdings, a Chinese K12 education technology company, submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">CITIC Construction Investment</a>and Macquarie as joint sponsors.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd9374646d4e20d7557e943b5ef8a918","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184721911","content_text":"据港交所文件：中国K12教育科技公司读书郎教育控股向港交所提交上市申请书，中信建投及麦格理为联席保荐人。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":192331791,"gmtCreate":1621143852813,"gmtModify":1704353352581,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good ?&nbsp;","listText":"Good ?&nbsp;","text":"Good ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/192331791","repostId":"2135989900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191994021,"gmtCreate":1620831931863,"gmtModify":1704349108693,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191994021","repostId":"1184130678","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184130678","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620829178,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184130678?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-12 22:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Li Auto continued to pull up more than 8%, leading the new energy vehicle sector","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184130678","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周三盘中，理想汽车持续拉升，截至发稿涨幅扩大至8%。与此同时，小鹏汽车跌0.08%，蔚来跌0.52%，特斯拉跌超1.5%。","content":"<p>Intraday Wednesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Continued to rise, and as of press time, the increase expanded to 8%. In the meantime,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>down 0.08%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>down 0.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell by more than 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a736d0010000757a1e003d96005bd9ab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto continued to pull up more than 8%, leading the new energy vehicle sector</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto continued to pull up more than 8%, leading the new energy vehicle sector\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-12 22:19</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Intraday Wednesday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Continued to rise, and as of press time, the increase expanded to 8%. In the meantime,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Motors</a>down 0.08%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>down 0.52%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell by more than 1.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a736d0010000757a1e003d96005bd9ab\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cd608dea059f96a8bee52aea078452e","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184130678","content_text":"周三盘中，理想汽车持续拉升，截至发稿涨幅扩大至8%。与此同时，小鹏汽车跌0.08%，蔚来跌0.52%，特斯拉跌超1.5%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"02015":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9028645815,"gmtCreate":1653224040837,"gmtModify":1676535242386,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9028645815","repostId":"1168811044","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165178181,"gmtCreate":1624111590243,"gmtModify":1703828961085,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165178181","repostId":"2144170319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144170319","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624086714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144170319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting COVID-19) The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, posing a challenge to its 70% adult vaccination target.</p><p>WASHINGTON, June 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on Tuesday that the United States has administered 300 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine within 150 days of taking office.</p><p>Speaking about the pandemic that day, Biden said, \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to have a very different summer. A bright and joyful summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of the 18th, the United States had accumulated more than 33.51 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 601,000 deaths. Currently, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States over seven days is approximately 12,000 and 300, respectively.</p><p>Despite a significant improvement in the pandemic, the American public's willingness to get vaccinated has decreased, posing a challenge to another of the Biden administration's anti-pandemic goals. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. There are 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, but this figure is still 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The report points out that the aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the average number of vaccinations administered in the United States over 7 days is about 1.1 million doses, far below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden pointed out that regions with high vaccination rates in the United States have seen significant declines in mortality and hospitalization rates. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>Data released by the White House on the 18th showed that more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the vaccination rate for one dose of the vaccine in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other states is currently less than 50%.</p><p>Biden also pointed out that the COVID-19 variant is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 variants will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. Faced with highly dangerous and highly transmissible mutated viruses, full vaccination remains the \"best way\" to protect oneself.</p><p>“On July 4th, we will celebrate our independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We hope everyone can do that,” Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House announced that a 1,000-person celebration would be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical workers, rescue workers, and their families on the front lines of the fight against the pandemic. This will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting COVID-19) The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, posing a challenge to its 70% adult vaccination target.</p><p>WASHINGTON, June 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on Tuesday that the United States has administered 300 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine within 150 days of taking office.</p><p>Speaking about the pandemic that day, Biden said, \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to have a very different summer. A bright and joyful summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of the 18th, the United States had accumulated more than 33.51 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 601,000 deaths. Currently, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States over seven days is approximately 12,000 and 300, respectively.</p><p>Despite a significant improvement in the pandemic, the American public's willingness to get vaccinated has decreased, posing a challenge to another of the Biden administration's anti-pandemic goals. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. There are 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, but this figure is still 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The report points out that the aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the average number of vaccinations administered in the United States over 7 days is about 1.1 million doses, far below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden pointed out that regions with high vaccination rates in the United States have seen significant declines in mortality and hospitalization rates. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>Data released by the White House on the 18th showed that more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the vaccination rate for one dose of the vaccine in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other states is currently less than 50%.</p><p>Biden also pointed out that the COVID-19 variant is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 variants will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. Faced with highly dangerous and highly transmissible mutated viruses, full vaccination remains the \"best way\" to protect oneself.</p><p>“On July 4th, we will celebrate our independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We hope everyone can do that,” Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House announced that a 1,000-person celebration would be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical workers, rescue workers, and their families on the front lines of the fight against the pandemic. This will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165178908,"gmtCreate":1624111572204,"gmtModify":1703828960924,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165178908","repostId":"2144170319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144170319","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624086714,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144170319?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 15:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144170319","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　中新社华盛顿6月18日电 美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。　　尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","content":"<p>(Fighting COVID-19) The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, posing a challenge to its 70% adult vaccination target.</p><p>WASHINGTON, June 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on Tuesday that the United States has administered 300 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine within 150 days of taking office.</p><p>Speaking about the pandemic that day, Biden said, \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to have a very different summer. A bright and joyful summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of the 18th, the United States had accumulated more than 33.51 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 601,000 deaths. Currently, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States over seven days is approximately 12,000 and 300, respectively.</p><p>Despite a significant improvement in the pandemic, the American public's willingness to get vaccinated has decreased, posing a challenge to another of the Biden administration's anti-pandemic goals. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. There are 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, but this figure is still 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The report points out that the aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the average number of vaccinations administered in the United States over 7 days is about 1.1 million doses, far below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden pointed out that regions with high vaccination rates in the United States have seen significant declines in mortality and hospitalization rates. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>Data released by the White House on the 18th showed that more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the vaccination rate for one dose of the vaccine in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other states is currently less than 50%.</p><p>Biden also pointed out that the COVID-19 variant is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 variants will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. Faced with highly dangerous and highly transmissible mutated viruses, full vaccination remains the \"best way\" to protect oneself.</p><p>“On July 4th, we will celebrate our independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We hope everyone can do that,” Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House announced that a 1,000-person celebration would be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical workers, rescue workers, and their families on the front lines of the fight against the pandemic. This will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, challenging its 70% adult vaccination target.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 15:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Fighting COVID-19) The Biden administration has completed 300 million doses of vaccine, posing a challenge to its 70% adult vaccination target.</p><p>WASHINGTON, June 18 (Xinhua) -- U.S. President Joe Biden announced at the White House on Tuesday that the United States has administered 300 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine within 150 days of taking office.</p><p>Speaking about the pandemic that day, Biden said, \"Compared to last year, the United States is about to have a very different summer. A bright and joyful summer.\"</p><p>According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of the 18th, the United States had accumulated more than 33.51 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 601,000 deaths. Currently, the average number of confirmed cases and deaths in the United States over seven days is approximately 12,000 and 300, respectively.</p><p>Despite a significant improvement in the pandemic, the American public's willingness to get vaccinated has decreased, posing a challenge to another of the Biden administration's anti-pandemic goals. Biden previously proposed that 70% of American adults receive at least one dose of the vaccine by July 4. There are 15 days left until the Independence Day holiday, but this figure is still 65.1%.</p><p>《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>The report points out that the aforementioned goals may not be achieved until the summer. Currently, the average number of vaccinations administered in the United States over 7 days is about 1.1 million doses, far below the peak of 3.3 million doses per day.</p><p>Biden pointed out that regions with high vaccination rates in the United States have seen significant declines in mortality and hospitalization rates. \"But unfortunately, in states with low vaccination rates, new cases and hospitalizations are not declining in many places. In some places, they are actually rising.\"</p><p>Data released by the White House on the 18th showed that more than 175 million Americans have received at least one dose of the vaccine. One-dose vaccination rates have reached 70% in 15 states and Washington, D.C. According to US media statistics, the vaccination rate for one dose of the vaccine in Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Wyoming and other states is currently less than 50%.</p><p>Biden also pointed out that the COVID-19 variant is a \"serious problem\" in the United States' fight against the pandemic. COVID-19 variants will make unvaccinated people more vulnerable than they were a month ago. Faced with highly dangerous and highly transmissible mutated viruses, full vaccination remains the \"best way\" to protect oneself.</p><p>“On July 4th, we will celebrate our independence from the pandemic while celebrating Independence Day. We hope everyone can do that,” Biden said.</p><p>Earlier this week, the White House announced that a 1,000-person celebration would be held on the South Lawn on Independence Day, inviting medical workers, rescue workers, and their families on the front lines of the fight against the pandemic. This will be the largest event held at the White House since Biden became president.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26835d2a08742c3de45f524c7bb8604","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-19/doc-ikqcfnca1958952.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144170319","content_text":"（抗击新冠肺炎）拜登政府完成3亿剂疫苗接种 70%成人接种目标迎挑战\n中新社华盛顿6月18日电 （记者 陈孟统）美国总统拜登18日在白宫宣布，在其就任150天内，美国已完成3亿剂新冠疫苗接种。\n拜登当天就疫情发表讲话说：“与去年相比，美国即将迎来一个非常不同的夏天。一个明亮的、愉悦的夏天。”\n据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学数据，截至18日，美国累计新冠确诊病例超3351万，死亡病例达60.1万。目前，美国7天平均确诊和死亡病例约为1.2万例和300例。\n尽管疫情大幅改善，但美国民众的疫苗接种意愿降低，让拜登政府的另一项抗疫目标面临挑战。拜登此前提出，在7月4日前，让70%的美国成年人至少接种一剂疫苗。距离独立日假期还剩15天，但这一数据仍为65.1%。\n《华盛顿邮报》指出，上述目标可能要到夏天才能实现。目前，美国7天平均疫苗接种量约为110万剂，远低于高峰时期的每日330万剂。\n拜登指出，美国疫苗接种率高的地区，死亡率和住院率大幅下降。“但不幸的是，在疫苗接种率较低的州，许多地方的新增病例和住院率并没有下降。在一些地方，实际在上升。”\n白宫18日公布的数据显示，目前，超过1.75亿美国人已至少接种一剂疫苗。15个州和华盛顿特区的一剂疫苗接种率已达70%。而据美国媒体统计，亚拉巴马州、路易斯安那州、密西西比州、田纳西州、怀俄明州等地目前一剂疫苗接种率不足50%。\n拜登同时指出，新冠变异病毒是美国抗击疫情的一个“严重问题”。新冠变异病毒将使未接种疫苗的人比一个月前更加脆弱。面对高危险性、高传播性的变异病毒，完全接种疫苗仍是自我保护的“最佳方法”。\n“7月4日，我们将在欢度独立日的同时，庆祝摆脱疫情而独立。我们希望每个人都能做到。”拜登如是说。\n本周早些时候，白宫对外透露，独立日当天将在南草坪举办千人规模的庆祝活动，邀请在抗疫一线的医务人员、救援人员及其家人参加。这将成为拜登就任总统以来白宫举行的最大规模活动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059722076,"gmtCreate":1654438625895,"gmtModify":1676535447538,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gu","listText":"Gu","text":"Gu","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059722076","repostId":"1111513232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111513232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654406018,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111513232?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-05 13:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The height of prosperity? How far can American consumption go?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111513232","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"眼下，政策退潮大势所趋，就业市场景气犹在，消费“繁荣”能否延续？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Zhao Wei and Cao Jinqiu, Guojin Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p><b>The \"surface\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</b></p><p><b>Overall, U.S. private consumption expenditures and retail sales data for April were very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, private consumption in the United States suffered a severe blow, with the nominal year-on-year growth rate once falling to -16.1%. With the U.S. government implementing large-scale financial subsidies for residents and the economic impact of the pandemic weakening, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. private consumption rose to 6% in April, far exceeding the nearly 10-year average of 3.9%. Meanwhile, another important consumption indicator, the compound annual growth rate of retail sales, rose to 9.9% in April, which is also far higher than the average level of the past 10 years.</p><p><b>Structurally, goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</b>In terms of commodities, the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell to 13.3%, which remained high, while the compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was 8.1%, which also remained high. Among them, apart from a few products such as home appliances, the consumption of the vast majority of goods was very strong. Compared to goods, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery. Looking at different industries, consumption such as medical care has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, but catering, accommodation, and entertainment consumption have not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><b>The \"truth\" of actual consumption in the United States? Goods consumption declined from its peak, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery.</b></p><p><b>Historically, nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been largely consistent, but recently there has been a clear divergence.</b>The persistently high inflation readings in the United States have clearly disrupted the robust relationship between nominal and real consumption trends, leading to a significant divergence between the two. After adjusting for inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption in the United States in April was 2.5%, slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic. In terms of retail sales. After adjusting for inflation, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, also slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic.</p><p><b>Structurally, actual commodity consumption has fallen from its high level but remains high, while service consumption maintains a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>Despite high inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of durable goods in the United States in April was 9.5%, still higher than the average level of 6.1% over the 10 years before the pandemic. The compound annual growth rates of automobiles and building materials were all at historical lows. In the non-durable goods sector, the compound annual growth rate was 4.1%, which was also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, the compound annual growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p><b>What is the future of American consumption? Service consumption plays a major role, but the \"erosive effect\" of inflation warrants vigilance.</b></p><p><b>With better-than-expected wage increases and employment recovery, as well as a recovery in business scenarios, service consumption is expected to grow and support overall consumption. However, attention should be paid to the continued accumulation of service inflation pressures.</b>As a leading indicator of service consumption in the United States, wage increases and job recovery have continued to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous cycle. With the epidemic receding, whether service consumption such as leisure and entertainment can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will be a \"touchstone\" for testing the quality of consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of a receding tide of stimulus and rate hike, the pre-emption of durable goods consumption may be nearing its end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the \"erosive effect\" of inflation.</b>Post-pandemic durable goods consumption in the United States has shown significant pre-emptive characteristics, with \"excess\" consumption potentially exceeding $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Against the backdrop of receding stimulus and rate hike, demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles may be suppressed. Regarding non-durable goods, rigid demand may support stable consumption, but we need to be wary of the increasingly prominent \"erosive effect\" of high inflation on non-durable goods.</p><p>Main text:</p><p>1. The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</p><p><b>Overall, U.S. April private consumption expenditures and the latest April retail sales...</b>①<b>The data and performance are both very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, private consumption, as the \"ballast\" of the US economy, suffered a severe blow, with the nominal year-on-year growth rate once falling to -16.1%. With the U.S. government implementing large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the pandemic on the economy weakening, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. private consumption② has recovered to an extremely high level of 6%, far exceeding the average of 3.9% over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, another important consumption indicator, the compound annual growth rate of retail sales, rose to 9.9% in April, also far higher than the average of 4.3% over the past 10 years.</p><p>① Private consumption is a measure of consumer spending by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is a more comprehensive indicator of consumer spending than retail sales and the largest component of GDP (accounting for about 70%). Retail sales are survey data obtained by the U.S. Business Census Bureau through interviews with thousands of retailers, primarily reflecting changes in nominal consumption (mainly goods consumption).</p><p>② To eliminate the interference of the base effect, the data for 2021 and subsequent years are based on the data for the same period in 2019, and then the compound annual growth rate is calculated, the same below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a00fdddba22296419e080671efcce\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21500bfb02edb9bb0cd689da22576615\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On the commodity side, the growth rate of durable goods consumption slowed down but remained high, while the growth rate of non-durable goods consumption continued to recover.</b>Commodity consumption can be further broken down into durable goods and non-durable goods consumption. The former mainly includes goods such as automobiles, furniture, and home appliances that generally have a service life of more than 3 years, while the latter mainly includes relatively consumable goods such as food, clothing, and energy products. Specifically, data from April shows that the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell from a previous high of 20% to 13.3%, which remains at a high level; The compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption reached as high as 8.1%. Against the backdrop of continued expansion in commodity consumption, the proportion of durable goods and non-durable goods consumption in private consumption increased from 11% and 20% before the pandemic to 13% and 22%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b600d905e75b26bd815dd46bf39e3f65\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0785710933970579a74fc15e388436f\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking at the structure, apart from a few items such as home appliances, the consumption of the vast majority of goods was very strong.</b>The retail sales sub-indicator primarily reflects U.S. residents' consumer spending on goods. By structure, motor vehicle and parts stores, storeless retail, daily necessities, and gas station retail sales accounted for 20%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of total retail sales, respectively. Based on retail sales data, apart from a few individual commodities such as home appliances where the retail growth rate was relatively low, the compound annual growth rate of consumption for most commodities such as automobiles, furniture, clothing, and food remained high, basically above 75% of the historical percentile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c2d64e5f153f86fed7e3721cbd225a\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17869c23d4ef58a10040a344306a412d\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1722b188ffe336c69166cab2f474075\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3232273c2b0ef73962a527c14cdb94c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of service consumption, service consumption such as medical care has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, while catering consumption has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.</b>The recurring pandemic in the early stages significantly disrupted the recovery process of service consumption. According to April data, compared to the compound annual growth rate of goods consumption of 9.9%, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery. To provide a more comprehensive picture of service consumption, we use credit card consumption data to capture changes in service consumption items. Credit card spending data shows that spending on repairs and maintenance (family-run) and outpatient healthcare (medical services) has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Food and beverage consumption, etc., has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels because the indoor mask order was lifted relatively late.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce51dab39d446354be1442b3a00818a9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5057371f89a45e8b2c24947d948ffef\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d262cf4300ba4e77efcc2ab8fe1ec45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824422748d70225488b30a02c3281d46\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4d6f9ac13c71a0074592c7a8919351\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. The \"truth\" about actual consumption in the United States? Goods consumption declined from its peak, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery.</p><p><b>Historically, nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been largely consistent, but recently there has been a clear divergence.</b>The persistently high inflation readings in the United States have clearly disrupted the robust relationship between nominal and real consumption trends, leading to a significant divergence between the two. After excluding inflation, real consumption in the United States was not as strong as nominal statistics show. The real compound annual growth rate in April was 2.5%, slightly higher than the average level of 2.2% over the 10 years before the pandemic. After adjusting for inflation, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, also slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5380f9766531eac5ffc32f0c834a9441\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4b11564b1b863d8d25452f8b2b1e01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding durable goods, despite high inflation, the actual consumption of durable goods has fallen sharply behind the impressive nominal data.</b>After adjusting for inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of durable goods in the United States recorded 9.5% in April, a significant drop from the previous high of 18.9%, but still higher than the average level of 6.1% over the 10 years before the pandemic. Structurally, in stark contrast to the nominal growth rate, the real compound annual growth rate of retail sales of major durable goods such as home appliances, furniture, automobiles, and building materials all fell sharply, remaining at the historical percentiles of 30%, 28%, 8%, and 5%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dacea5cb4090d85a9678c7bb963d8c3\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cfe4ff3933fc76ff02e78903c74d60\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712b63ad80c741d1e26e3240603c0ece\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656cd766f77935dce43cb7695066de74\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding non-durable goods, the real consumption growth rate was not as strong as the nominal growth rate, and the overall trend remained stable.</b>After excluding inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of non-durable goods in the United States in April was 4.1%, which was also significantly lower than the previous high of 7.1%, but still higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Historically, unlike durable goods consumption, non-durable goods generally account for just over 20% of actual total consumption because they mostly correspond to rigid consumption demand. Looking at the breakdown data, the actual retail sales of clothing stores, sporting goods stores, and daily necessities stores maintained a basically stable trend year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cf10f55e97d525058774b85d1f1e66\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29d991fbfe58d57edc2927c2fc78e365\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, actual service consumption showed a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>U.S. PCE prices reached 6.3% year-on-year in April, far higher than the average level of less than 2% in previous years. Among them, there is a significant gap in inflationary pressures between goods and services. In April, prices of durable goods and non-durable goods reached 8.4% and 10.1% year-on-year, respectively; In comparison, service prices were \"only\" 4.6% year-on-year. The reason is that, unlike the booming demand for goods, the demand for services was constrained by factors such as the recurring pandemic, and the actual compound annual growth rate was only 0.9%. Among them, apart from the relatively rigid compound annual growth rate of service consumption such as household operations and healthcare remaining positive, the compound annual growth rate of non-essential service consumption such as transportation and entertainment remained in the negative range.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab5b7dada9958b6b1f554aa44b1f68c\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a788270cf5c3fcd9559c13589eb53\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481df1ade1365c9cb0ab6c3c1389017b\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa2f198bf75ba91ce0883d2a6a733d1\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. Where is US consumption headed? Service consumption plays a major role, but the \"erosive effect\" of inflation warrants vigilance.</p><p><b>As a leading indicator of service consumption, wage increases and employment recovery have continued to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous cycle.</b>Historically, the year-on-year trend of total wage income in the United States has kept pace with or slightly outpaced consumption, especially service consumption, which mainly depends on employment prospects. Currently, the number of job openings in the United States has exceeded 10 million for eight consecutive months, indicating that the labor supply has not yet fully met demand. Despite strong recruitment demand, \"post-pandemic trauma\" and other factors will continue to constrain labor supply and exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, forcing companies to significantly increase salaries and hire employees. Strong growth in private payroll income will provide strong support for service consumption.<b>(For a detailed analysis of the U.S. job market, see \"How Far Is the U.S. Recession from the Job Market?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73210cd580833cc7f145d3d9deee9fd4\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41058b422ed72e2da4812046a7b74ff5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca21b2ca421b226252a91c4dce72d128\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d584172e5d7105dd60d2bfbded328ae\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Coupled with the need for a natural recovery in offline consumption after the pandemic, a further recovery in service consumption is expected.</b>With the rapid expansion of commodity consumption, service consumption accounted for 60.6% of total consumption, more than 3 percentage points lower than before the pandemic, indicating considerable room for recovery. More importantly, with the epidemic receding in the United States, whether consumption in services such as leisure and entertainment, catering, and accommodation can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will also be an important perspective for assessing the quality of American consumption. It should also be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures. Learning from history, changes in service-side inflation in the United States often determine the overall level of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77196fac6955c9af8fac0ba78b69226f\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610bf343aa3487bea9028c09b3003fe0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a32bf9eacf293bd27b7e87907c86b42\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23dc2a06fc604b0018ae9f2062017107\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Post-pandemic durable goods consumption has shown significant pre-emptive characteristics. Considering the suppression of related consumer demand by the easing of policies, the high growth in durable goods consumption may be nearing its end.</b>The surge in durable goods consumption in the United States after the pandemic is inseparable from large-scale fiscal subsidies and a low-interest-rate environment. However, based on historical experience, this round of durable goods consumption has a significant pre-emptive characteristic, with \"excess\" durable goods consumption potentially exceeding $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Against the backdrop of fiscal tightening and Federal Reserve rate hike, consumer demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods, especially automobiles, may be suppressed. The \"frenzy\" of pre-ordering durable goods consumption may be nearing its end, and continued monitoring is needed in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3ca31a2507b2c2850aaf776f288855\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2755b915ca591107259626eceb2f1908\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5593acea5df6195474802c29ba8dfda7\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a30af70030661a9b0de075d08b219f\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding non-durable goods, overall consumption may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the increasingly prominent \"erosive effect\" of high inflation on some non-durable goods consumption.</b>Since most of them correspond to rigid consumer demand, the growth rate of durable goods consumption is likely to remain \"lukewarm\". However, it should be noted that the further recovery of service consumption during the peak travel season, coupled with supply constraints, is expected to lead to an increase in oil prices, which may further push up inflation. May gasoline retail price data shows that the CPI for energy commodities is likely to continue to exceed 40% year-on-year. According to a Bank of America consumer survey report, continued energy inflation may have a further \"erosive effect\" on the consumption of some non-durable goods.<b>(For an analysis of oil price trends, please see \"Why are oil prices 'very calm' as the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates again?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a75ea71a790217d6f04f719f4b243fa\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69649389fc34a7a9128d99ed99ee1795\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee463234eb865851d8c689a45f9b54\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e8b078725d2c126b417ab9193a93cdb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>After research, we found that:</b></p><p>(1) Overall, the compound annual growth rate of private consumption expenditure and retail sales in the United States in April reached 6% and 10.6% respectively, both of which were far higher than the average level of the past 10 years. Structurally, the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell to 13.3%, still at a high level, while the compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption reached 8.1%, also maintaining a high level. Compared to goods, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery.</p><p>(2) Historically, the nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been basically the same, but the two have diverged significantly due to the recent disturbance of high inflation readings. Structurally, the compound annual growth rate of actual durable goods and non-durable goods consumption both declined, but remained at historical highs. Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, the compound annual growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p>(3) With better-than-expected increases in residents' wages and employment recovery, as well as scenario recovery, service consumption is expected to grow and is expected to support overall consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures. Against the backdrop of a receding tide of stimulus and rate hike, the pre-emption of durable goods consumption may be nearing its end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the \"erosive effect\" of inflation.</p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p><b>1. The recovery in US service consumption fell short of expectations.</b>Some of the impacts of the pandemic may be long-lasting, thereby reshaping the consumption habits of American residents.</p><p><b>2. Monthly data statistics fluctuate significantly.</b>U.S. private consumption and retail sales data fluctuate significantly in a single month, which may disturb our judgment of future trends.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The height of prosperity? How far can American consumption go?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe height of prosperity? How far can American consumption go?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-05 13:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Authors: Zhao Wei and Cao Jinqiu, Guojin Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Abstract:</b></p><p><b>The \"surface\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</b></p><p><b>Overall, U.S. private consumption expenditures and retail sales data for April were very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, private consumption in the United States suffered a severe blow, with the nominal year-on-year growth rate once falling to -16.1%. With the U.S. government implementing large-scale financial subsidies for residents and the economic impact of the pandemic weakening, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. private consumption rose to 6% in April, far exceeding the nearly 10-year average of 3.9%. Meanwhile, another important consumption indicator, the compound annual growth rate of retail sales, rose to 9.9% in April, which is also far higher than the average level of the past 10 years.</p><p><b>Structurally, goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</b>In terms of commodities, the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell to 13.3%, which remained high, while the compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption was 8.1%, which also remained high. Among them, apart from a few products such as home appliances, the consumption of the vast majority of goods was very strong. Compared to goods, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery. Looking at different industries, consumption such as medical care has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, but catering, accommodation, and entertainment consumption have not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><b>The \"truth\" of actual consumption in the United States? Goods consumption declined from its peak, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery.</b></p><p><b>Historically, nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been largely consistent, but recently there has been a clear divergence.</b>The persistently high inflation readings in the United States have clearly disrupted the robust relationship between nominal and real consumption trends, leading to a significant divergence between the two. After adjusting for inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption in the United States in April was 2.5%, slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic. In terms of retail sales. After adjusting for inflation, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, also slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic.</p><p><b>Structurally, actual commodity consumption has fallen from its high level but remains high, while service consumption maintains a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>Despite high inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of durable goods in the United States in April was 9.5%, still higher than the average level of 6.1% over the 10 years before the pandemic. The compound annual growth rates of automobiles and building materials were all at historical lows. In the non-durable goods sector, the compound annual growth rate was 4.1%, which was also higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, the compound annual growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p><b>What is the future of American consumption? Service consumption plays a major role, but the \"erosive effect\" of inflation warrants vigilance.</b></p><p><b>With better-than-expected wage increases and employment recovery, as well as a recovery in business scenarios, service consumption is expected to grow and support overall consumption. However, attention should be paid to the continued accumulation of service inflation pressures.</b>As a leading indicator of service consumption in the United States, wage increases and job recovery have continued to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous cycle. With the epidemic receding, whether service consumption such as leisure and entertainment can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will be a \"touchstone\" for testing the quality of consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures.</p><p><b>Against the backdrop of a receding tide of stimulus and rate hike, the pre-emption of durable goods consumption may be nearing its end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the \"erosive effect\" of inflation.</b>Post-pandemic durable goods consumption in the United States has shown significant pre-emptive characteristics, with \"excess\" consumption potentially exceeding $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Against the backdrop of receding stimulus and rate hike, demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods such as automobiles may be suppressed. Regarding non-durable goods, rigid demand may support stable consumption, but we need to be wary of the increasingly prominent \"erosive effect\" of high inflation on non-durable goods.</p><p>Main text:</p><p>1. The \"appearance\" of nominal consumption in the United States? Goods consumption remained high, while the recovery of service consumption lagged behind.</p><p><b>Overall, U.S. April private consumption expenditures and the latest April retail sales...</b>①<b>The data and performance are both very strong.</b>After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, private consumption, as the \"ballast\" of the US economy, suffered a severe blow, with the nominal year-on-year growth rate once falling to -16.1%. With the U.S. government implementing large-scale financial subsidies to residents and the impact of the pandemic on the economy weakening, the compound annual growth rate of U.S. private consumption② has recovered to an extremely high level of 6%, far exceeding the average of 3.9% over the past 10 years. Meanwhile, another important consumption indicator, the compound annual growth rate of retail sales, rose to 9.9% in April, also far higher than the average of 4.3% over the past 10 years.</p><p>① Private consumption is a measure of consumer spending by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is a more comprehensive indicator of consumer spending than retail sales and the largest component of GDP (accounting for about 70%). Retail sales are survey data obtained by the U.S. Business Census Bureau through interviews with thousands of retailers, primarily reflecting changes in nominal consumption (mainly goods consumption).</p><p>② To eliminate the interference of the base effect, the data for 2021 and subsequent years are based on the data for the same period in 2019, and then the compound annual growth rate is calculated, the same below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c5a00fdddba22296419e080671efcce\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21500bfb02edb9bb0cd689da22576615\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"554\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>On the commodity side, the growth rate of durable goods consumption slowed down but remained high, while the growth rate of non-durable goods consumption continued to recover.</b>Commodity consumption can be further broken down into durable goods and non-durable goods consumption. The former mainly includes goods such as automobiles, furniture, and home appliances that generally have a service life of more than 3 years, while the latter mainly includes relatively consumable goods such as food, clothing, and energy products. Specifically, data from April shows that the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell from a previous high of 20% to 13.3%, which remains at a high level; The compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption reached as high as 8.1%. Against the backdrop of continued expansion in commodity consumption, the proportion of durable goods and non-durable goods consumption in private consumption increased from 11% and 20% before the pandemic to 13% and 22%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b600d905e75b26bd815dd46bf39e3f65\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0785710933970579a74fc15e388436f\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Looking at the structure, apart from a few items such as home appliances, the consumption of the vast majority of goods was very strong.</b>The retail sales sub-indicator primarily reflects U.S. residents' consumer spending on goods. By structure, motor vehicle and parts stores, storeless retail, daily necessities, and gas station retail sales accounted for 20%, 16%, 12%, and 9% of total retail sales, respectively. Based on retail sales data, apart from a few individual commodities such as home appliances where the retail growth rate was relatively low, the compound annual growth rate of consumption for most commodities such as automobiles, furniture, clothing, and food remained high, basically above 75% of the historical percentile.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9c2d64e5f153f86fed7e3721cbd225a\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17869c23d4ef58a10040a344306a412d\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1722b188ffe336c69166cab2f474075\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3232273c2b0ef73962a527c14cdb94c\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>In terms of service consumption, service consumption such as medical care has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, while catering consumption has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.</b>The recurring pandemic in the early stages significantly disrupted the recovery process of service consumption. According to April data, compared to the compound annual growth rate of goods consumption of 9.9%, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery. To provide a more comprehensive picture of service consumption, we use credit card consumption data to capture changes in service consumption items. Credit card spending data shows that spending on repairs and maintenance (family-run) and outpatient healthcare (medical services) has exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Food and beverage consumption, etc., has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels because the indoor mask order was lifted relatively late.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce51dab39d446354be1442b3a00818a9\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5057371f89a45e8b2c24947d948ffef\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d262cf4300ba4e77efcc2ab8fe1ec45\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"656\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824422748d70225488b30a02c3281d46\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4d6f9ac13c71a0074592c7a8919351\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>2. The \"truth\" about actual consumption in the United States? Goods consumption declined from its peak, while service consumption maintained a weak recovery.</p><p><b>Historically, nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been largely consistent, but recently there has been a clear divergence.</b>The persistently high inflation readings in the United States have clearly disrupted the robust relationship between nominal and real consumption trends, leading to a significant divergence between the two. After excluding inflation, real consumption in the United States was not as strong as nominal statistics show. The real compound annual growth rate in April was 2.5%, slightly higher than the average level of 2.2% over the 10 years before the pandemic. After adjusting for inflation, the actual year-on-year growth rate of U.S. retail sales in April was only 2.3%, also slightly above the average level of the 10 years before the pandemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5380f9766531eac5ffc32f0c834a9441\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4b11564b1b863d8d25452f8b2b1e01\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding durable goods, despite high inflation, the actual consumption of durable goods has fallen sharply behind the impressive nominal data.</b>After adjusting for inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of durable goods in the United States recorded 9.5% in April, a significant drop from the previous high of 18.9%, but still higher than the average level of 6.1% over the 10 years before the pandemic. Structurally, in stark contrast to the nominal growth rate, the real compound annual growth rate of retail sales of major durable goods such as home appliances, furniture, automobiles, and building materials all fell sharply, remaining at the historical percentiles of 30%, 28%, 8%, and 5%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dacea5cb4090d85a9678c7bb963d8c3\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"683\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cfe4ff3933fc76ff02e78903c74d60\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712b63ad80c741d1e26e3240603c0ece\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656cd766f77935dce43cb7695066de74\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding non-durable goods, the real consumption growth rate was not as strong as the nominal growth rate, and the overall trend remained stable.</b>After excluding inflation, the compound annual growth rate of real consumption of non-durable goods in the United States in April was 4.1%, which was also significantly lower than the previous high of 7.1%, but still higher than the average level of 2.1% in the 10 years before the pandemic. Historically, unlike durable goods consumption, non-durable goods generally account for just over 20% of actual total consumption because they mostly correspond to rigid consumption demand. Looking at the breakdown data, the actual retail sales of clothing stores, sporting goods stores, and daily necessities stores maintained a basically stable trend year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cf10f55e97d525058774b85d1f1e66\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29d991fbfe58d57edc2927c2fc78e365\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, actual service consumption showed a relatively weak recovery trend.</b>U.S. PCE prices reached 6.3% year-on-year in April, far higher than the average level of less than 2% in previous years. Among them, there is a significant gap in inflationary pressures between goods and services. In April, prices of durable goods and non-durable goods reached 8.4% and 10.1% year-on-year, respectively; In comparison, service prices were \"only\" 4.6% year-on-year. The reason is that, unlike the booming demand for goods, the demand for services was constrained by factors such as the recurring pandemic, and the actual compound annual growth rate was only 0.9%. Among them, apart from the relatively rigid compound annual growth rate of service consumption such as household operations and healthcare remaining positive, the compound annual growth rate of non-essential service consumption such as transportation and entertainment remained in the negative range.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab5b7dada9958b6b1f554aa44b1f68c\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c35a788270cf5c3fcd9559c13589eb53\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"661\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481df1ade1365c9cb0ab6c3c1389017b\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffa2f198bf75ba91ce0883d2a6a733d1\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>3. Where is US consumption headed? Service consumption plays a major role, but the \"erosive effect\" of inflation warrants vigilance.</p><p><b>As a leading indicator of service consumption, wage increases and employment recovery have continued to exceed expectations and have entered a virtuous cycle.</b>Historically, the year-on-year trend of total wage income in the United States has kept pace with or slightly outpaced consumption, especially service consumption, which mainly depends on employment prospects. Currently, the number of job openings in the United States has exceeded 10 million for eight consecutive months, indicating that the labor supply has not yet fully met demand. Despite strong recruitment demand, \"post-pandemic trauma\" and other factors will continue to constrain labor supply and exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, forcing companies to significantly increase salaries and hire employees. Strong growth in private payroll income will provide strong support for service consumption.<b>(For a detailed analysis of the U.S. job market, see \"How Far Is the U.S. Recession from the Job Market?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73210cd580833cc7f145d3d9deee9fd4\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41058b422ed72e2da4812046a7b74ff5\" tg-width=\"951\" tg-height=\"670\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca21b2ca421b226252a91c4dce72d128\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d584172e5d7105dd60d2bfbded328ae\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Coupled with the need for a natural recovery in offline consumption after the pandemic, a further recovery in service consumption is expected.</b>With the rapid expansion of commodity consumption, service consumption accounted for 60.6% of total consumption, more than 3 percentage points lower than before the pandemic, indicating considerable room for recovery. More importantly, with the epidemic receding in the United States, whether consumption in services such as leisure and entertainment, catering, and accommodation can be significantly boosted during the peak travel season will also be an important perspective for assessing the quality of American consumption. It should also be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures. Learning from history, changes in service-side inflation in the United States often determine the overall level of inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77196fac6955c9af8fac0ba78b69226f\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/610bf343aa3487bea9028c09b3003fe0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a32bf9eacf293bd27b7e87907c86b42\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23dc2a06fc604b0018ae9f2062017107\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Post-pandemic durable goods consumption has shown significant pre-emptive characteristics. Considering the suppression of related consumer demand by the easing of policies, the high growth in durable goods consumption may be nearing its end.</b>The surge in durable goods consumption in the United States after the pandemic is inseparable from large-scale fiscal subsidies and a low-interest-rate environment. However, based on historical experience, this round of durable goods consumption has a significant pre-emptive characteristic, with \"excess\" durable goods consumption potentially exceeding $430 billion, equivalent to nearly 30% of durable goods consumption in 2019. Against the backdrop of fiscal tightening and Federal Reserve rate hike, consumer demand for interest-rate-sensitive durable goods, especially automobiles, may be suppressed. The \"frenzy\" of pre-ordering durable goods consumption may be nearing its end, and continued monitoring is needed in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d3ca31a2507b2c2850aaf776f288855\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"641\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2755b915ca591107259626eceb2f1908\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5593acea5df6195474802c29ba8dfda7\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23a30af70030661a9b0de075d08b219f\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Regarding non-durable goods, overall consumption may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the increasingly prominent \"erosive effect\" of high inflation on some non-durable goods consumption.</b>Since most of them correspond to rigid consumer demand, the growth rate of durable goods consumption is likely to remain \"lukewarm\". However, it should be noted that the further recovery of service consumption during the peak travel season, coupled with supply constraints, is expected to lead to an increase in oil prices, which may further push up inflation. May gasoline retail price data shows that the CPI for energy commodities is likely to continue to exceed 40% year-on-year. According to a Bank of America consumer survey report, continued energy inflation may have a further \"erosive effect\" on the consumption of some non-durable goods.<b>(For an analysis of oil price trends, please see \"Why are oil prices 'very calm' as the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates again?\").</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a75ea71a790217d6f04f719f4b243fa\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"680\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69649389fc34a7a9128d99ed99ee1795\" tg-width=\"939\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65ee463234eb865851d8c689a45f9b54\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"673\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e8b078725d2c126b417ab9193a93cdb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"672\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>After research, we found that:</b></p><p>(1) Overall, the compound annual growth rate of private consumption expenditure and retail sales in the United States in April reached 6% and 10.6% respectively, both of which were far higher than the average level of the past 10 years. Structurally, the compound annual growth rate of durable goods consumption fell to 13.3%, still at a high level, while the compound annual growth rate of non-durable goods consumption reached 8.1%, also maintaining a high level. Compared to goods, the compound annual growth rate of service consumption was \"only\" 4.1%, indicating a significant lag in recovery.</p><p>(2) Historically, the nominal and real consumption trends in the United States have been basically the same, but the two have diverged significantly due to the recent disturbance of high inflation readings. Structurally, the compound annual growth rate of actual durable goods and non-durable goods consumption both declined, but remained at historical highs. Compared to the decline in goods consumption from its peak, the compound annual growth rate of actual service consumption in April was only 0.9%, maintaining a relatively weak recovery trend.</p><p>(3) With better-than-expected increases in residents' wages and employment recovery, as well as scenario recovery, service consumption is expected to grow and is expected to support overall consumption. However, it should be noted that the recovery in service consumption demand may lead to a further release of inflationary pressures. Against the backdrop of a receding tide of stimulus and rate hike, the pre-emption of durable goods consumption may be nearing its end; Consumption of non-durable goods may remain stable, but we need to be wary of the \"erosive effect\" of inflation.</p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p><b>1. The recovery in US service consumption fell short of expectations.</b>Some of the impacts of the pandemic may be long-lasting, thereby reshaping the consumption habits of American residents.</p><p><b>2. Monthly data statistics fluctuate significantly.</b>U.S. private consumption and retail sales data fluctuate significantly in a single month, which may disturb our judgment of future trends.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661102\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/987ab6715591b2ad7014d2cf9348920e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3661102","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1111513232","content_text":"作者：国金证券研究所赵伟、曹金丘摘要：美国名义消费的“表象”？商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及零售销售数据，表现都非常强劲。2020年疫情爆发后，美国私人消费一度遭受重创，名义同比增速一度跌至-16.1%。伴随着美国政府对居民实施大规模财政补贴，以及疫情对经济的影响趋于弱化，美国4月私人消费复合增速升至6%，远超近10年均值的3.9%。同时，另一重要的消费指标，零售销售复合增速在4月升至9.9%，也远高于近10年均值水平。分结构来看，商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后。商品方面，耐用品消费复合增速回落至13.3%，依然处于高位，非耐用品消费复合增速为8.1%，同样维持高位。其中，除了家电等个别商品，绝大部分商品消费都非常亮眼。相比商品，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。分行业来看，医疗护理等消费已经超过疫情前水平，但餐饮住宿、娱乐消费等尚未修复至疫情前水平。美国实际消费的“真相”？商品消费自高位回落，服务消费维持弱复苏从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期出现明显分化。美国通胀读数的持续高企，很明显干扰了名义、实际消费之间走势的稳健关系，导致二者出现了明显分化。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月实际消费复合增速录得2.5%，略超疫情前10年均值水平。零售销售方面。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月零售销售实际同比增速也仅为2.3%，同样略超疫情前10年均值水平。分结构来看，实际商品消费已从高位回落、但依然高企，服务消费维持相对弱复苏态势。通胀高企下，美国4月耐用品实际消费复合增速9.5%，仍高于疫情前10年均值水平的6.1%，汽车、建材等复合增速均处于历史低位。非耐用品方面，复合增速录得4.1%，也高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.1%。相比起商品消费从高位回落，4月实际服务消费复合增速仅录得0.9%，维持相对弱复苏态势。美国消费将何去何从？服务消费“挑大梁”，通胀的“侵蚀效应”需警惕居民薪资提升与就业修复超预期，以及场景修复下，服务消费增长可期、有望支撑整体消费，但需留意服务通胀压力继续累积。作为美国服务消费的领先指标，居民薪资提升与就业修复，持续超预期且已进入良性循环。疫情退潮背景下，休闲娱乐等服务消费的能否在出行旺季获得明显提振，也将是检验消费成色的“试金石”。但需留意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。刺激退潮及加息背景下，耐用品消费前置或行近尾声；非耐用品消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀的“侵蚀效应”。疫后美国耐用品消费前置特征显著，“超额”消费或超4300亿美元，相当于2019年耐用品消费的近3成。刺激退潮及加息背景下，汽车等利率敏感型耐用品的需求，或将受到抑制。非耐用品方面，刚性需求或将支撑消费平稳，但需警惕高通胀对非耐用品的“侵蚀效应”加剧凸显。正文：1、美国名义消费的“表象”？商品消费维持高位，服务消费修复相对滞后整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及最新的4月零售销售①数据，表现都非常强劲。2020年疫情爆发后，作为美国经济的“压舱石”，私人消费一度遭受重创，名义同比增速一度跌至-16.1%。伴随着美国政府对居民实施大规模财政补贴，以及疫情对经济的影响趋于弱化，美国私人消费复合增速②修复至6%的极高水平，远超近10年均值的3.9%。与此同时，另一重要的消费指标，零售销售复合增速在4月升至9.9%，同样远高于近10年均值水平的4.3%。①私人消费是美国经济分析局对消费者支出的测度，是比零售销售更全面的消费者支出指标，也是GDP的最大组成部分（占比约7成）。零售销售是美国商务普查局通过访问数千家零售商得到的调查数据，主要反映名义消费（主要是商品消费）的变化。②为剔除基数效应的干扰，2021年及以后的数据均以2019年同期数据为基准，进而计算复合增速，下同。商品方面，耐用品消费增速有所回落、但维持高位，非耐用品消费增速持续修复。商品消费，可进一步拆分为耐用品、非耐用品消费，前者主要包括汽车、家具、家电等使用年限一般超过3年的商品，后者主要包括食品、服装、能源品等相对易耗的商品。具体来看，4月数据显示，耐用品消费复合增速从前期20%的高点回落至13.3%，依然处于高位；非耐用品消费复合增速高达8.1%。商品消费持续扩张下的背景下，耐用品、非耐用品消费占私人消费比重，分别从疫情前的11%、20%增长至13%、22%。分结构来看，除了家电等个别商品，绝大部分商品消费都非常亮眼。零售销售分项指标，主要反应美国居民在商品上的消费支出。分结构来看，机动车辆及零部件店、无店铺零售业、日用品、加油站零售额较高，分别占总零售销售比重为20%、16%、12%、9%。基于零售销售数据来看，除了家电等个别商品零售增速增速较低外，汽车、家具、服装、食品等绝大部分商品消费的复合增速维持高位，基本上都处于历史百分位的75%以上。服务消费方面，医疗护理等服务消费已经超过疫情前水平，餐饮消费等尚未修复至疫情前水平。前期疫情反复，明显干扰了服务消费修复进程。从4月数据来看，相比起高达9.9%的商品消费复合增速，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。为了更全面地刻画服务消费，我们使用信用卡消费数据去捕捉服务消费分项变化。信用卡消费数据显示，维修保养（家庭经营）、门诊保健（医疗服务类）消费已经超过疫情前水平。餐饮消费等，因为室内口罩令放开的相对较晚，相关消费活动尚未修复至疫情前水平。2、美国实际消费的“真相”？商品消费自高位回落，服务消费维持弱复苏从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期出现明显分化。美国通胀读数的持续高企，很明显干扰了名义、实际消费之间走势的稳健关系，导致二者出现了明显分化。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国实际消费水平并未如名义统计值那样异常强劲，4月实际复合增速录得2.5%，略高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.2%。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月零售销售实际同比增速也仅为2.3%，同样略超疫情前10年均值水平。耐用品方面，通胀高企下，靓丽的名义数据背后，耐用品实际消费已大幅回落。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月耐用品实际消费复合增速录得9.5%，较前期高点的18.9%大幅回落，不过仍然高于疫情前10年均值水平的6.1%。从结构来看，与名义增速完全相反，家电、家具、汽车、建材等主要耐用品零售额实际复合增速均大幅回落，分别处于历史百分位的30%、28%、8%、5%。非耐用品方面，实际消费增速也不如名义增速般强劲，整体维持平稳态势。在剔除了通胀因素后，美国4月非耐用品实际消费复合增速录得4.1%，也较前期高点的7.1%明显回落，不过也高于疫情前10年均值水平的2.1%。从历史走势来看，与耐用品消费不同的是，非耐用品由于多对应于刚性消费需求，占实际总消费的比重一般稳定在20%出头。分项数据来看，服装店、运动商品店、日用品商场等实际零售额复合同比，基本上维持平稳走势。相比起商品消费从高位回落，实际服务消费呈现相对弱复苏态势。美国4月PCE物价同比达到6.3%，远高于往年不足2%的平均水平。其中，商品与服务通胀压力差距悬殊。4月耐用品、非耐用品物价同比分别达到8.4%、10.1%；相对而言，服务物价同比“仅为”4.6%。原因在于，不同于火爆的商品消费需求，服务消费需求受到疫情反复等因素的制约，实际复合增速仅仅录得0.9%。其中，除了家庭运营、医疗等相对刚性的服务消费复合同比维持正值，交运、娱乐等非必要的服务消费复合同比仍在负值区间。3、美国消费将何去何从？服务消费“挑大梁”，通胀的“侵蚀效应”需警惕作为服务消费的领先指标，薪资提升与就业修复，持续超预期且已进入良性循环。历史回溯显示，美国薪酬总收入同比的走势同步或弱领先于消费、尤其是服务消费，而前者主要取决于就业景气。目前来看，美国职位空缺数已连续8个月高于1000万个，表明劳动力供给仍没有充分满足需求。旺盛的招工需求下，“疫后创伤”等仍将制约劳动力供给、加剧供需矛盾，使得企业不得不大幅加薪招人。私人薪酬收入维持高增，将对服务消费提供强力支持（关于美国就业市场的详细分析，请参见《从就业市场，看美国衰退有多远？》）。叠加疫后线下消费自然修复的需要等，服务消费进一步复苏可期。商品消费高速扩张下，服务消费占总消费比重下降至60.6%，较疫情前低出超过3个百分点，存在较大的修复空间。更为重要的是，美国疫情退潮背景下，休闲娱乐、餐饮、住宿等服务消费的能否在出行旺季获得明显提振，也将是检验美国消费成色的重要视角。还需注意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。以史为鉴，美国服务端通胀变化，往往决定整体通胀中枢水平。疫后耐用品消费前置特征显著，再考虑到政策退潮对相关消费需求的抑制，耐用品消费高增或行近尾声。美国疫后耐用品消费高增，与大规模财政补贴、低利率环境密不可分。但基于历史经验来看，本轮耐用品消费前置特征显著，“超额”耐用品消费或超4300亿美元，相当于2019年耐用品消费的近3成。财政退潮、美联储加息背景下，尤其是汽车等利率敏感型耐用品的消费需求，或将受到抑制。耐用品消费前置的“狂热”或行近尾声，未来还需持续跟踪。非耐用品方面，整体消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀高企对部分非耐用品消费的“侵蚀效应”加剧凸显。由于大多对应刚性消费需求，耐用品消费增速或将维持“不温不火”。但需注意的是，出行旺季下服务消费的进一步复苏，叠加供给受限，油价上涨可期、或将进一步推升通胀。5月汽油零售价数据显示，CPI能源商品分项同比或将继续超40%。参考美国银行的消费者调查报告来看，持续的能源通胀，可能将对部分非耐用品消费产生进一步的“侵蚀效应”。（关于油价走势研判，请参见《俄乌冲突再升温，油价为何“很淡定”？》）。经过研究，我们发现：（1）整体来看，美国4月私人消费支出及零售销售复合增速，分别达到6%、10.6%，均也远高于近10年均值水平。分结构来看，耐用品消费复合增速回落至13.3%，依然处于高位，非耐用品消费复合增速高达8.1%，同样维持高位。相比商品，服务消费复合增速“仅为”4.1%、修复明显滞后。（2）从历史上来看，美国名义、实际消费走势基本一致，但近期高通胀读数的扰动下，二者出现明显分化。分结构来看，实际耐用品、非耐用品消费复合增速均有所回落，但都仍处于历史高位。相比起商品消费从高位回落，4月实际服务消费复合增速仅录得0.9%，维持相对弱复苏态势。（3）居民薪资提升与就业修复超预期，以及场景修复下，服务消费增长可期、有望支撑整体消费。但需注意的是，服务消费需求复苏，或将带来通胀压力的进一步释放。刺激退潮及加息背景下，耐用品消费前置或行近尾声；非耐用品消费或维持平稳，但需警惕通胀的“侵蚀效应”。风险提示：1、美国服务消费修复不及预期。疫情带来的部分影响有可能长期化，进而重塑美国居民的消费习惯。2、单月数据统计波动较大。美国私人消费、零售销售数据单月波动较大，有可能会扰动对未来趋势的判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9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10:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, and Feng Liu captured top-performing stocks in Q2! Some stocks heavily held by private equity firms worth tens of billions of yuan also plummeted.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158395460","media":"中国证券报","summary":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛","content":"<p><div>Data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the stocks heavily held by private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan have declined. Among them, hidden heavyweight stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry saw the largest declines. Some private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan suffered heavy losses, with a single heavily held stock resulting in unrealized losses of approximately 100 million yuan. However, Gaoyi's Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu, and Minority Investment, among others, captured the top-performing stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's top holdings surged 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after entering May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, and new energy sectors experiencing significant rebounds. Some hidden heavy holdings of private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter also achieved remarkable performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"zgzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, and Feng Liu captured top-performing stocks in Q2! Some stocks heavily held by private equity firms worth tens of billions of yuan also plummeted.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGao Yi, Deng Xiaofeng, and Feng Liu captured top-performing stocks in Q2! Some stocks heavily held by private equity firms worth tens of billions of yuan also plummeted.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国证券报</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 10:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Data shows that since the second quarter, nearly 60% of the stocks heavily held by private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan have declined. Among them, hidden heavyweight stocks in the pharmaceutical and biological industry saw the largest declines. Some private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan suffered heavy losses, with a single heavily held stock resulting in unrealized losses of approximately 100 million yuan. However, Gaoyi's Deng Xiaofeng, Feng Liu, and Minority Investment, among others, captured the top-performing stocks in the second quarter. Deng Xiaofeng's top holdings surged 47.59%. Since the second quarter, especially after entering May, the A-share market has shown a rebound trend, with automobiles, military industry, and new energy sectors experiencing significant rebounds. Some hidden heavy holdings of private equity firms with assets exceeding 10 billion yuan at the end of the first quarter also achieved remarkable performance. Among them, private equity tycoons Gao Yi and Deng Xiaofeng...</p><p><a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ\">中国证券报</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数","02333":"长城汽车","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/JAuEj7sSmF7NsgaNhB_VcQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158395460","content_text":"数据显示，二季度以来近六成百亿私募隐形重仓股下跌。其中，医药生物行业的隐形重仓股跌幅居前。有百亿私募损失惨重，一只重仓股就带来了约1亿元的浮亏。不过，高毅邓晓峰、冯柳以及少数派投资等，捕获二季度的大牛股。邓晓峰重仓股大涨47.59%二季度以来，尤其是进入5月之后，A股市场呈现出反弹趋势，汽车、军工、新能源等反弹幅度较大。一些百亿私募一季度末的隐形重仓股，也取得了不俗的表现。其中，私募大佬高毅邓晓峰，就捕获了一只大牛股华秦科技。资料显示，华秦科技成立于1992年，在今年3月初上市，是一家主要从事特种功能材料的军工企业，业务包括隐身材料、伪装材料及防护材料的研发、生产和销售，产品主要应用于重大国防武器装备如飞机、主战坦克、舰船、导弹等。Wind数据显示，一季度末，邓晓峰管理的高毅晓峰2号致信基金和高毅晓峰鸿远集合资金信托计划分别位列华秦科技的第二和第三大流通股东，分别持有86万股和76万股。二季度以来，华秦科技大涨47.59%。高毅旗下另一位私募大佬冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金，也有一只隐形重仓股龙软科技二季度以来上涨33.18%。龙软科技是一家专注于煤矿基础地理信息系统与专业应用软件开发与销售的煤炭智能开采厂商。高毅邻山1号远望基金自2021年三季度首次进入龙软科技前十大流通股东之列，持股100万股，并一直持有，期间龙软科技股价经历了不小的波动。冯柳管理的高毅邻山1号远望基金的另一只隐形重仓股容知日新，是一家专注于工业互联网领域的工业设备智能运维商。自2021年三季度上市以来披露的定期报告显示，高毅邻山1号远望基金一直是该公司的第一大流通股东。二季度以来，该股上涨超过30%。此外，百亿私募少数派投资、玄元投资和宁波宁聚的隐形重仓股冰川网络，二季度以来实现了48.89%的涨幅。玄元投资重仓的建筑材料公司祁连山，二季度以来上涨了29.01%。邓晓峰持有的爱博医疗、源乐晟持有的明月镜片、清和泉持有的立中集团、盘京投资持有的兰花科创，二季度以来都实现了超过20%的涨幅。近六成隐形重仓股下跌不过，几家欢喜几家愁，有一些百亿私募二季度被隐形重仓股大幅拖累。百亿私募重仓的三只医药生物股普利制药、振东制药和诚达药业，二季度以来跌幅居前，分别下跌37.54%、33.82%和29.66%。其中，一季度末，盘京投资旗下的盛信2期私募证券投资基金重仓普利制药396万股，慎知资产更是重仓该公司近610万股。若二季度没有减持，则两家公司二季度以来在该股票上分别浮亏约6000万和1亿元。整体来看，第三方平台统计的116只百亿私募隐形重仓股中，二季度以来有48只上涨，接近六成下跌。不过，展望后市，不少机构表达了乐观的态度。清和泉资本表示，5月市场受疫情消退、稳增长政策加码、美债冲高回落等影响向上修复。市场经过系统性调整后，悲观情绪得到较大程度释放，相应的市场投资机会越来越多。源乐晟表示，A股市场大概率已经触底，将慢慢走出情绪底部。具体到行业上，首选需求不受疫情影响或在疫情好转后需求可以快速恢复高增长的板块，如光伏、风电、部分制造业等。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"02333":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059863349,"gmtCreate":1654331587481,"gmtModify":1676535433017,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tgv","listText":"Tgv","text":"Tgv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059863349","repostId":"1104028566","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9059869726,"gmtCreate":1654331570466,"gmtModify":1676535432994,"author":{"id":"3581892856246833","authorId":"3581892856246833","name":"SKEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25b655ef0ab4e530787c041a4c580922","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581892856246833","authorIdStr":"3581892856246833"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Vh","listText":"Vh","text":"Vh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9059869726","repostId":"1115257762","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115257762","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654327837,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115257762?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-04 15:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Is Netflix's moat becoming its ceiling as its \"flywheel\" slows down?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115257762","media":"证券市场红周刊","summary":"当新用户增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，奈飞就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。据外媒报道，由于收入增","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>When the growth rate of new users has to slow down due to its huge base, Netflix must choose between two options: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow and prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow rapidly on a high base. Currently, Netflix cannot achieve either.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, streaming giant NetFlix announced it will lay off approximately 150 employees and some agent contractors due to slowing revenue growth. In its first-quarter financial report released at the end of April, Netflix's net profit fell 6% year-on-year, and the number of new paying users decreased by 200,000. This is the first time since 2011 that Netflix's paying users have decreased instead of increased. Netflix's stock price plummeted under multiple pressures. Does Netflix currently have a good opportunity to position itself on the left? In my opinion, the limit of loss if you buy now is probably around 20%, but if you consider capital efficiency, it's difficult to draw a definitive conclusion. It remains to be seen when its paid user growth will stabilize and whether its global expansion moat is solid.</p><p><b>\"Flywheel\" stalls, users experience negative growth for the first time.</b></p><p>The ultimate equity value of any company is equal to the sum of the cash flows it can generate over its life cycle, projected onto the current value at an appropriate discount rate. Doing a review on Netflix will greatly help us understand this concept.</p><p>In the past, if you wanted to watch a movie, you would usually go to a place like a library, borrow a few DVDs for a little money, and then take them home to watch. However, due to the emergence of Netflix, DVD rental giant Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in 2011. What Netflix did in its early days was very similar to what Amazon did in its early days, making it possible to rent DVDs online and deliver them to customers' homes, thereby reducing operating costs, passing on profits to consumers, and expanding market share.</p><p>Figure 1 An old Blockbuster store</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c0e8b8f31ff8b893e95f1bebc2dbf6\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, was a visionary. He observed that with the development of cloud technology and the enhancement of computing power, videos and movies will gradually be delivered in digital form rather than in physical form in the future. Therefore, he chose to disrupt himself and focus heavily on the streaming media business.</p><p>Many articles say this is Netflix's \"second growth curve,\" but my opinion is somewhat different. Naifei's move towards digital content distribution is actually a natural extension of its original business. Because the online customer interaction interface, the collection and reuse of customer information, and the self-reinforcing feedback chain of the recommendation engine can all be directly migrated from the original business.</p><p>Although the definition of streaming business is simple, the deeper issue lies in what business model Netflix wants to use to strengthen its competitive advantage. If it's just a content distributor, and the cost of paying based on the content, such as buying a movie from Paramount and distributing it, is proportional to the cost to the customer, then there are no economies of scale or network effects. Therefore, Netflix's solution is to turn variable costs into fixed costs. For example, signing a fixed-price contract with a content provider or studio. And made a big gamble: spending $100 million to produce two seasons of \"House of Cards\" starring Kevin Spacey. The logic behind this is simple: since externalization is not feasible, we should directly produce content internally, forcing content production to become part of the streaming media business model, making content production a fixed cost, and establishing the \"flywheel\" of the entire economy of scale.</p><p>Netflix's strategy has achieved unprecedented results. In the internet world, a strong scale and network are the most reliable moat. In 2018, HBO, a subsidiary of Warner Bros., once a high-end leader in the streaming industry, was confined to the United States due to its cable television business DNA and had completely missed the opportunity for global expansion, no longer able to compete with Netflix.</p><p>It wasn't until Disney's streaming service launched in November 2019 that Netflix emerged as a truly competitive rival on a global scale. The COVID-19 pandemic further boosted its stock price, with Netflix's market capitalization once reaching $300 billion, even surpassing that of Disney, the media giant.</p><p>However, I have always had doubts about Netflix's business model. In the early stages of development, investing heavily in burning market share is an inevitable part of the internet industry. However, when Netflix already has hundreds of millions of users and its growth rate has to slow down due to its huge base, it must make a choice: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow to prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow rapidly on a high base. Currently, Netflix cannot achieve either.</p><p>As shown in Figure 2, the number of global subscribers to Netflix's streaming channel increased from 38 million in the first quarter of 2013 to 220 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Figure 2. Netflix Streaming Channel Global Subscribers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91afc9fee82717b650ed9f9629ee370\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Statistica</p><p>However, information revealed in the latest first-quarter report and earnings conference shows that Disney's subscriber numbers are still growing by several million each quarter, while Netflix has indicated that subscriber numbers will decline in the second quarter. As a result, Netflix's stock price has plummeted from $700 per share to $170 per share in the past six months, even returning to where it was five years ago.</p><p>Figure 3. Netflix's trend since the end of last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618091d0fa3d53745bee0dcf54a63300\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As we can see from Figure 4, although Netflix's revenue has increased sevenfold in the past 10 years, it has been unable to generate a corresponding increase in free cash flow (except for the significant benefit it received in 2020 due to the pandemic).</p><p>Figure 4. Changes in Netflix's revenue and free cash flow over the past 10 years</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8ad713abb9ade6a9302c99d5739e5a\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Company 10K</p><p><b>Netflix layout on the left</b></p><p><b>The loss limit may be around 20%.</b></p><p>Historically, market sentiment has always shifted from one extreme to another, and capitalizing on significant pullback/retracement to buy high-quality stocks is the best way to profit from value investing.</p><p>Netflix currently has a market capitalization of $82 billion, $6 billion in cash on hand, and $15 billion in debt, which means the company's enterprise value is $91 billion. Netflix's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for the past year was $19 billion, which means that based on EBITDA, Netflix's valuation is less than 6x EBITDA.</p><p>However, it should be reiterated that Netflix's highest operating cash flow in history was only $2.43 billion, which is 3% of its current market capitalization. Netflix's annual depreciation and amortization is as high as $12 billion, while its capital expenditure is only $600 million. Therefore, in my opinion, Netflix's EBITDA is deceptive, and at least it is of limited help in accurately assessing the company's value.</p><p>Because a large portion of Netflix's EBITDA is the amortization of content assets, if content assets are excluded, the actual amortization of factories, equipment, and intangible assets in the traditional sense is only about $200 million per year. In other words, Netflix's true EBITDA is $7 billion, which is 13x EBITDA based on the current stock price. The average valuation in the media industry is around 10x EBITDA, so even now, the market still values Netflix at a premium of about 30%.</p><p>In my opinion, if you buy Netflix on the left side now, the limit of the loss might be around 20% (Netflix's valuation has returned to 10x EBITDA), but the upper limit can reach several times, so the odds are interesting. However, from the perspective of financial efficiency, it's hard to say.</p><p>Despite having Reed Hastings and his excellent team, it remains to be seen whether Netflix's growth potential is truly as the company claims, temporarily hampered by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the European market and the recurring negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latin America.</p><p>Also, if these reasons are true, why did Disney add more than 7 million subscribers? How should investors understand the significant difference in subscriber growth over the past two quarters? If Disney can almost catch up with Netflix in terms of subscriber numbers in three years, does that mean Netflix doesn't have a deep moat?</p><p><b>HBO breaks through again</b></p><p><b>Netflix's globalization moat is being tested</b></p><p>We mentioned HBO earlier, which was one of the earliest high-end cable streaming providers and also the producer of the Game of Thrones series. When Netflix's management first started creating its own content, they learned from HBO and transformed content costs from variable costs to fixed costs. HBO is part of Warner Bros. Later, telecommunications giant AT&T acquired Warner Bros., but due to poor management, it managed to turn HBO into a second-rate streaming platform and sold Warner Bros. to the Discovery Channel last year. After the Discovery Channel acquired Warner Bros., it became Warner Discovery (trading code: WBD).</p><p>In my opinion, Warner Exploration's risk-adjusted returns are probably higher than Netflix's. As mentioned earlier, HBO's main problem is that it did not make a global layout earlier. It is precisely in this respect that Warner Exploration excels, with over 50% of its EBITDA coming from overseas. Warner Exploration could transfer the Discovery Channel channel to Warner Bros. and HBO. In this way, the entire business model would have a huge synergistic effect, and Warner could quickly achieve a global layout. Therefore, in my opinion, this acquisition is very reasonable.</p><p>According to statistics, Warner Discovery had 96 million subscribers at the beginning of the year, making it the world's largest streaming platform after Netflix and Disney. My \"pH test paper\" is simple: if Warner Exploration can quickly achieve large-scale global streaming deployment and complete the direct consumer-facing transformation of the Discovery Channel's old business, it will show that Netflix's moat of economies of scale and network effect advantages is not so unbreakable, and Netflix's premium should not exist.</p><p>However, if Warner Bros. Exploration's globalization process proceeds with great difficulties, and the entire market still only has two leading players, Netflix and Disney, then we can almost certainly say that the global duopoly pattern is too fierce now. With the decline in the stock prices of the two companies and shareholders' demands for returns on investment, the competition will ease, and Netflix's profitability should also have a significant leap forward.</p><p>Assuming the duopoly is stable (i.e., Warner Exploration cannot become a \"Shu Kingdom\"), then we have reason to believe that Netflix should be able to achieve at least a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years, which could provide a 25x P/E. Assuming Netflix can achieve a 20% net profit margin, corresponding to a net profit of $6 billion, its reasonable market capitalization should be $150 billion, which is about $330 per share.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1571701096748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Netflix's moat becoming its ceiling as its \"flywheel\" slows down?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Netflix's moat becoming its ceiling as its \"flywheel\" slows down?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">证券市场红周刊</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-04 15:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>When the growth rate of new users has to slow down due to its huge base, Netflix must choose between two options: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow and prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow rapidly on a high base. Currently, Netflix cannot achieve either.</p><p>According to foreign media reports, streaming giant NetFlix announced it will lay off approximately 150 employees and some agent contractors due to slowing revenue growth. In its first-quarter financial report released at the end of April, Netflix's net profit fell 6% year-on-year, and the number of new paying users decreased by 200,000. This is the first time since 2011 that Netflix's paying users have decreased instead of increased. Netflix's stock price plummeted under multiple pressures. Does Netflix currently have a good opportunity to position itself on the left? In my opinion, the limit of loss if you buy now is probably around 20%, but if you consider capital efficiency, it's difficult to draw a definitive conclusion. It remains to be seen when its paid user growth will stabilize and whether its global expansion moat is solid.</p><p><b>\"Flywheel\" stalls, users experience negative growth for the first time.</b></p><p>The ultimate equity value of any company is equal to the sum of the cash flows it can generate over its life cycle, projected onto the current value at an appropriate discount rate. Doing a review on Netflix will greatly help us understand this concept.</p><p>In the past, if you wanted to watch a movie, you would usually go to a place like a library, borrow a few DVDs for a little money, and then take them home to watch. However, due to the emergence of Netflix, DVD rental giant Blockbuster declared bankruptcy in 2011. What Netflix did in its early days was very similar to what Amazon did in its early days, making it possible to rent DVDs online and deliver them to customers' homes, thereby reducing operating costs, passing on profits to consumers, and expanding market share.</p><p>Figure 1 An old Blockbuster store</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39c0e8b8f31ff8b893e95f1bebc2dbf6\" tg-width=\"965\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix, was a visionary. He observed that with the development of cloud technology and the enhancement of computing power, videos and movies will gradually be delivered in digital form rather than in physical form in the future. Therefore, he chose to disrupt himself and focus heavily on the streaming media business.</p><p>Many articles say this is Netflix's \"second growth curve,\" but my opinion is somewhat different. Naifei's move towards digital content distribution is actually a natural extension of its original business. Because the online customer interaction interface, the collection and reuse of customer information, and the self-reinforcing feedback chain of the recommendation engine can all be directly migrated from the original business.</p><p>Although the definition of streaming business is simple, the deeper issue lies in what business model Netflix wants to use to strengthen its competitive advantage. If it's just a content distributor, and the cost of paying based on the content, such as buying a movie from Paramount and distributing it, is proportional to the cost to the customer, then there are no economies of scale or network effects. Therefore, Netflix's solution is to turn variable costs into fixed costs. For example, signing a fixed-price contract with a content provider or studio. And made a big gamble: spending $100 million to produce two seasons of \"House of Cards\" starring Kevin Spacey. The logic behind this is simple: since externalization is not feasible, we should directly produce content internally, forcing content production to become part of the streaming media business model, making content production a fixed cost, and establishing the \"flywheel\" of the entire economy of scale.</p><p>Netflix's strategy has achieved unprecedented results. In the internet world, a strong scale and network are the most reliable moat. In 2018, HBO, a subsidiary of Warner Bros., once a high-end leader in the streaming industry, was confined to the United States due to its cable television business DNA and had completely missed the opportunity for global expansion, no longer able to compete with Netflix.</p><p>It wasn't until Disney's streaming service launched in November 2019 that Netflix emerged as a truly competitive rival on a global scale. The COVID-19 pandemic further boosted its stock price, with Netflix's market capitalization once reaching $300 billion, even surpassing that of Disney, the media giant.</p><p>However, I have always had doubts about Netflix's business model. In the early stages of development, investing heavily in burning market share is an inevitable part of the internet industry. However, when Netflix already has hundreds of millions of users and its growth rate has to slow down due to its huge base, it must make a choice: 1. Generate a large amount of free cash flow to prove economies of scale; 2. You can lose money, but you must continue to grow rapidly on a high base. Currently, Netflix cannot achieve either.</p><p>As shown in Figure 2, the number of global subscribers to Netflix's streaming channel increased from 38 million in the first quarter of 2013 to 220 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>Figure 2. Netflix Streaming Channel Global Subscribers</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91afc9fee82717b650ed9f9629ee370\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Statistica</p><p>However, information revealed in the latest first-quarter report and earnings conference shows that Disney's subscriber numbers are still growing by several million each quarter, while Netflix has indicated that subscriber numbers will decline in the second quarter. As a result, Netflix's stock price has plummeted from $700 per share to $170 per share in the past six months, even returning to where it was five years ago.</p><p>Figure 3. Netflix's trend since the end of last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/618091d0fa3d53745bee0dcf54a63300\" tg-width=\"1030\" tg-height=\"743\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As we can see from Figure 4, although Netflix's revenue has increased sevenfold in the past 10 years, it has been unable to generate a corresponding increase in free cash flow (except for the significant benefit it received in 2020 due to the pandemic).</p><p>Figure 4. Changes in Netflix's revenue and free cash flow over the past 10 years</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8ad713abb9ade6a9302c99d5739e5a\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"575\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: Company 10K</p><p><b>Netflix layout on the left</b></p><p><b>The loss limit may be around 20%.</b></p><p>Historically, market sentiment has always shifted from one extreme to another, and capitalizing on significant pullback/retracement to buy high-quality stocks is the best way to profit from value investing.</p><p>Netflix currently has a market capitalization of $82 billion, $6 billion in cash on hand, and $15 billion in debt, which means the company's enterprise value is $91 billion. Netflix's EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) for the past year was $19 billion, which means that based on EBITDA, Netflix's valuation is less than 6x EBITDA.</p><p>However, it should be reiterated that Netflix's highest operating cash flow in history was only $2.43 billion, which is 3% of its current market capitalization. Netflix's annual depreciation and amortization is as high as $12 billion, while its capital expenditure is only $600 million. Therefore, in my opinion, Netflix's EBITDA is deceptive, and at least it is of limited help in accurately assessing the company's value.</p><p>Because a large portion of Netflix's EBITDA is the amortization of content assets, if content assets are excluded, the actual amortization of factories, equipment, and intangible assets in the traditional sense is only about $200 million per year. In other words, Netflix's true EBITDA is $7 billion, which is 13x EBITDA based on the current stock price. The average valuation in the media industry is around 10x EBITDA, so even now, the market still values Netflix at a premium of about 30%.</p><p>In my opinion, if you buy Netflix on the left side now, the limit of the loss might be around 20% (Netflix's valuation has returned to 10x EBITDA), but the upper limit can reach several times, so the odds are interesting. However, from the perspective of financial efficiency, it's hard to say.</p><p>Despite having Reed Hastings and his excellent team, it remains to be seen whether Netflix's growth potential is truly as the company claims, temporarily hampered by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the European market and the recurring negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latin America.</p><p>Also, if these reasons are true, why did Disney add more than 7 million subscribers? How should investors understand the significant difference in subscriber growth over the past two quarters? If Disney can almost catch up with Netflix in terms of subscriber numbers in three years, does that mean Netflix doesn't have a deep moat?</p><p><b>HBO breaks through again</b></p><p><b>Netflix's globalization moat is being tested</b></p><p>We mentioned HBO earlier, which was one of the earliest high-end cable streaming providers and also the producer of the Game of Thrones series. When Netflix's management first started creating its own content, they learned from HBO and transformed content costs from variable costs to fixed costs. HBO is part of Warner Bros. Later, telecommunications giant AT&T acquired Warner Bros., but due to poor management, it managed to turn HBO into a second-rate streaming platform and sold Warner Bros. to the Discovery Channel last year. After the Discovery Channel acquired Warner Bros., it became Warner Discovery (trading code: WBD).</p><p>In my opinion, Warner Exploration's risk-adjusted returns are probably higher than Netflix's. As mentioned earlier, HBO's main problem is that it did not make a global layout earlier. It is precisely in this respect that Warner Exploration excels, with over 50% of its EBITDA coming from overseas. Warner Exploration could transfer the Discovery Channel channel to Warner Bros. and HBO. In this way, the entire business model would have a huge synergistic effect, and Warner could quickly achieve a global layout. Therefore, in my opinion, this acquisition is very reasonable.</p><p>According to statistics, Warner Discovery had 96 million subscribers at the beginning of the year, making it the world's largest streaming platform after Netflix and Disney. My \"pH test paper\" is simple: if Warner Exploration can quickly achieve large-scale global streaming deployment and complete the direct consumer-facing transformation of the Discovery Channel's old business, it will show that Netflix's moat of economies of scale and network effect advantages is not so unbreakable, and Netflix's premium should not exist.</p><p>However, if Warner Bros. Exploration's globalization process proceeds with great difficulties, and the entire market still only has two leading players, Netflix and Disney, then we can almost certainly say that the global duopoly pattern is too fierce now. With the decline in the stock prices of the two companies and shareholders' demands for returns on investment, the competition will ease, and Netflix's profitability should also have a significant leap forward.</p><p>Assuming the duopoly is stable (i.e., Warner Exploration cannot become a \"Shu Kingdom\"), then we have reason to believe that Netflix should be able to achieve at least a 10% annualized growth rate over the next five years, which could provide a 25x P/E. Assuming Netflix can achieve a 20% net profit margin, corresponding to a net profit of $6 billion, its reasonable market capitalization should be $150 billion, which is about $330 per share.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u37Kpc-grId8paew0xCvrA\">证券市场红周刊</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2224e6b43e75f835dbd8bb6d8c4972c","relate_stocks":{"BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","NFLX":"奈飞","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4108":"电影和娱乐"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/u37Kpc-grId8paew0xCvrA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115257762","content_text":"当新用户增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，奈飞就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。据外媒报道，由于收入增长放缓，流媒体巨头奈飞（NetFlix）宣布将解雇约150名员工以及部分代理承包商。4月底其发布的第一季度财报显示，第一季度净利润同比下降6%，新增付费用户减少20万，这也是奈飞自2011年来首次付费用户不增反降。多重压力下，奈飞股价暴跌。那当前奈飞是否出现了左侧布局良机？笔者认为，现在买入，亏损的极限可能是20%左右，但如果考虑资金效率，则不好下定论。后续仍需留意其付费用户增长何时企稳，以及全球化布局护城河是否牢固。“飞轮”失速 用户首次负增长任何一个公司其最终的股权价值，都等于其生命周期能够产生的现金流按照合适的贴现比率投射到当下的数值之和。对奈飞做一个复盘，将非常有助于我们理解这一概念。曾经，如果想要看电影，一般都是去一个类似图书馆的地方，花一点钱借几盒DVD，然后带回家去看。但因为奈飞的出现，DVD租赁老大Blockbuster在2011年宣告破产。早期奈飞做的事，和早期亚马逊做的事非常像，让线上租赁DVD并投递到客户家中成为可能，以此减少经营成本，把利润让给消费者，扩大市场份额。图1 一个老Blockbuster店奈飞的创始人里德·哈斯廷斯（Reed Hastings）是一个很有远见的人。他观察到随着云技术的发展，计算能力的加强，未来视频和电影一定会慢慢以数字化的形式去传递，而非实体。因此他选择自我颠覆，重注流媒体业务。很多文章说这是奈飞的“第二增长曲线”，笔者的观点有些许不同。奈飞走数字化分发内容，其实是再自然不过的一种原有业务的延伸。因为无论是线上客户交互界面，客户信息的搜集和再利用，以及推荐引擎的自我加强反馈链，都可以直接从原有业务迁移。虽然流媒体业务的定义很简单，但更深层的东西，在于奈飞要以怎样的商业模式去强化自己的竞争优势。如果只是一个内容的渠道商，按照内容的可变成本来支付，比如从帕拉蒙特购买一部电影，分发要支付的费用和客户成正比，那就没有规模经济和网络效应可言。因此，奈飞想到的办法是把可变成本变成固定成本。比如和内容供应商或工作室签一个固定价格的合约。并做了一把豪赌：花一亿美元制作两季由凯文·史派西（Kevin Spacey）主演的《纸牌屋》。这背后的逻辑也很简单:既然向外不行，那就向内直接把内容给制作了，强迫内容生产变成流媒体商业模式的一部分，让内容制作变成固定成本，将整个规模经济的“飞轮”建立起来。奈飞的战略取得了空前的成果，在互联网的世界里，强大的规模和网络是最可靠的护城河。2018年，曾经流媒体行业的高端翘楚，华纳旗下的HBO，因为有线电视业务基因，一直困于美国本土，已经完全错失了全球扩张的机会，再也无力和奈飞掰手腕。直到2019年迪士尼流媒体在11月份上线，奈飞才出现一个真正在全球领域能与之竞争的对手。新冠疫情更是催化了股价，奈飞的市值一度高达3000亿美元，甚至超过了传媒行业的宗主迪士尼。但笔者对奈飞的生意模式，一直是有疑惑的。在发展前期，砸钱烧市场份额，这是互联网业态的必然。但当奈飞已经有上亿的用户规模了，增速因为基数巨大而不得不放缓时，那就必须做出二选一的抉择：1.产生大量的自由现金流，证明规模经济；2.可以亏钱，但必须在高基数上持续高速成长。目前看，奈飞两个都做不到。从图2可以看到，奈飞流媒体频道的全球订阅人数从2013年一季度的3800万，增加到2022年一季度的2.2亿。图2 奈飞流媒体频道的全球订阅人数数据来源：Statistica但在最新披露的一季报以及业绩说明会透露的信息显示，迪士尼每个季度的订阅人数仍在以几百万的幅度增长，奈飞却指引二季度订阅人数将下降。因此，过去6个月，奈飞的股价从700美元/股下挫到170美元/股，股价甚至回到了5年前的位置。图3 去年年底以来奈飞走势图从图4中我们也可以看到，尽管奈飞的营收在过去10年增加了7倍，但却一直没有办法产生相应增幅的自由现金流（除了2020年因为疫情而大幅受益）。图4 过去10年奈飞营收和自由现金流变动数据来源：公司10K左侧布局奈飞亏损极限可能在20%左右历史经验来看，市场情绪总是从一个极端走到另一个极端，而抓住大幅回撤买入优质股权，正是价值投资获利的不二良方。目前奈飞的市值为820亿美元，账面有现金60亿美元，债务共计150亿美元，也就是说这个公司的企业价值为910亿美元。奈飞过去一年的EBITDA（税息折旧及摊销前利润）为190亿美元，也就是说，按照EBITDA计算，奈飞的估值才6xEBITDA不到。不过，这里也要重申提醒，奈飞过去历史上产生过最多经营现金流的一年才24.3亿美元，也就是目前市值的3%的经营现金流收益。奈飞每年的折旧摊销高达120亿美元，而资本开支才6亿美元，因此奈飞的EBITDA，在笔者看来，是有欺骗性的，至少对于我们准确对这个公司的价值进行评估的帮助有限。因为奈飞的EBITDA里面，很大一部分是对内容资产的摊销，如果剔除掉内容资产的话，每年按照传统意义的厂房、器械和无形资产的真实摊销只有2亿美元左右。也就是说，奈飞的真实EBITDA是70亿美元，按照当前股价是13xEBITDA。传媒行业的平均估值大概是10xEBITDA，所以即便如今，市场给奈飞的估值还是有大概30%的溢价。笔者认为，如果现在左侧买入奈飞，亏损的极限可能是20%左右（奈飞估值回到10xEBITDA），但上界可以达到好几倍，因此赔率是有意思的。但是资金效率角度，却不好说。尽管奈飞有里德·哈斯廷斯及他非常优秀的团队，但奈飞的成长性是不是真的如公司所说，是受俄乌战争对欧洲市场的影响，以及新冠疫情反复对拉丁美洲造成的负面影响，暂时受挫，还有待观察。另外，如果这些理由属实，为什么迪士尼增加了700多万名订阅者呢？投资者应如何理解两者在订阅人数增速上，过去两个季度巨大的差异呢？如果迪士尼能用3年的时间几乎在订阅人数上追平奈飞，这是不是说明奈飞没有很深的护城河呢？HBO再突围奈飞全球化护城河受检验我们前面提到过HBO，其作为最早的高端有线电视流媒体供应商，也是《权力的游戏》这一连续剧的制作商。奈飞的管理层做自己的内容之初，就是学习了HBO，把内容成本从可变成本，转化成为了固定成本。HBO是华纳兄弟的一部分，后来电信巨头AT&T收购了华纳兄弟，但因为经营不善，愣是把HBO做成了一个二流流媒体平台，并在去年把华纳影视卖给了探索频道。探索频道收购了华纳影视之后，变成了华纳探索（交易代码：WBD）。笔者认为，其实华纳探索的风险调整后收益，恐怕比奈飞更高。前文谈到，HBO的问题主要在于没有早一些做全球化布局。恰恰在这一点上，华纳探索做得特别好，其EBITDA超过50%都是来自于海外的。华纳探索可以把探索频道的渠道拿来给华纳影视及HBO使用，这样一来，整个商业模式会有巨大的协同效应，华纳也可以很快实现全球化布局，因此这个并购，在笔者看来是很合理的。统计数据来看，华纳探索的年初订阅人数为9600万，是除了奈飞和迪士尼之外全球最大的流媒体平台。笔者的“酸碱度测试纸”很简单，如果华纳探索能较快地实现全球规模化流媒体部署，并完成探索频道老业务的直接面向消费者的转型，那将说明，奈飞搭建的规模经济和网络效应优势的护城河，并没有那么牢不可破，奈飞的溢价也就不应存在。但如果华纳探索的全球化进程举步维艰，整个市场仍然只有奈飞和迪士尼这两个头部玩家，那我们几乎可以确定全球双寡头垄断格局即便现在竞争过于激烈，随着两个公司股价的下调及股东对投资回报的诉求，竞争将缓和，奈飞的盈利能力，应也会有一个较大的跃升空间。假设双寡头格局是稳固的（即华纳探索无法成为“蜀国”），那么我们有理由相信奈飞应能至少实现未来5年年化10%的增速，可以给一个25x的市盈率。假设奈飞能实现20%的净利润率，对应60亿美元的净利润，则合理市值应为1500亿美元，也就是330美元/股左右的市值。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}