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2022-12-11

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Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a "Santa Claus" Rally This Year

2022-06-12

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2 Stocks to Buy and Hold Through Any Market Downturn

2022-01-11

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US STOCKS-Nasdaq Ekes Out Gain in Late Session Comeback

2021-09-12

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3 Top Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul

2022-12-31

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2022 Recap: Which Singapore Stocks Are Winners?

2022-12-09

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3 Tech Growth Stocks With More Potential Than Any Cryptocurrency

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SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish

2022-10-06

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Tesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%

2023-02-18

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2023-01-08

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Signs of Seller Exhaustion Left Stocks Primed for a Big Bounce

2023-01-03

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3 Dividend-Paying Tech Stocks to Buy in January

2022-12-29

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Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity

2022-12-13

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Wall St Rallies With Inflation, Fed on Tap

2022-12-07

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US STOCKS-S&P Posts 4th Straight Decline As Recession Talk Weighs on Wall Street

2021-07-17

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'Bad Omen' For Meme Stocks And The Retail Trading Boom? Here's What The Data Says

2021-05-23

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Here Are the 3 Bank Moves Warren Buffett Has Made So Far in 2021

2023-01-02

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2022-12-03

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11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall

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However, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America posted mixed views.</blockquote><p>Grab is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results before the U.S. market opens on February 23, 2023.</p><h2>Latest Results</h2><p>Revenue rose 143% YoY to $382 million, total GMV grew 26% YoY or 32% YoY on a constant currency basis, and loss for the quarter was $342 million.</p><h2>Q4 Guidance</h2><p>Grab sees Q4 Deliveries GMV of $2.40 billion - $2.50 billion, Mobility GMV of $1.10 billion - $1.15 billion, and Financial Services Pre-InterCo TPV of $3.60 billion - $3.70 billion.</p><p>It updated FY22 GMV growth outlook to 22% - 25% Y/Y from the previous 21% - 25% Y/Y,and raised revenue to $1.32 billion - $1.35 billion, up from the last $1.25 billion - $1.30 billion.</p><h2>Grab Introduced Cost-Cutting Measures to Beat the Macro Headwinds</h2><p>Grab&#39;s measures included a freeze on most hirings, salary freezes for senior managers, and cuts in travel and expense budgets.</p><p>Southeast Asia has not, and will not, be spared from rising prices and interest rates and the consequent effects on growth, CEO Anthony Tan said.</p><p>The company tried to stem losses by focusing on higher-paying customers and lowering incentive spending.</p><h2>Grab Reaffirmed Its Pathway to Profitability</h2><p>During its investor day in September this year, the company shared its goal to reach group-adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2024.</p><p>The company reaffirmed this target during the most recent earnings call, saying it remains confident that the $5.3 billion of net cash liquidity as of the third quarter should be a big enough buffer to allow the company to reach its expected group adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2024.</p><h2>Analyst Opinions</h2><p>JPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma downgraded Grab Holdings to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $2.80, down from $3.20. MobilityGMV could fall short of aggressive Street expectations and will be $5.2bn in 2023 and may reach $6bn in 2024.</p><p>Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $3.80. The company may improve degrees of freedom for 2024 breakeven. GMV growth in 2023 will likely remain sober (+9% YoY), and overall revenue growth is forecast at 43%YoY reflecting monetization efforts via lower incentives and better commissions.</p><p>Bank of America analyst Sachin Sagoankar upgraded a Buy rating from Neutral with a price target of $4.20 from $3.60. For mobility, in 2023 they expect the driver supply issue to be resolved. They also expect Grab to reduce its overall pricing to ensure no negative elasticity impact on consumer demand. In delivery, they expect Grab to scale up in grocery and quick commerce to benefit from increasing demand there and offset any slowdown in food. They don’t expect a higher cash burn as the focus appears to be on mid-to-high-end users.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Q4 Earnings Preview: Wall Street Posted Mixed View of Its Pathway to Profitability</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Q4 Earnings Preview: Wall Street Posted Mixed View of Its Pathway to Profitability\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-02-19 11:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote>Grab updated FY22 GMV growth outlook to 22% - 25% Y/Y and raised revenue to $1.32 billion - $1.35 billion. However, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America posted mixed views.</blockquote><p>Grab is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results before the U.S. market opens on February 23, 2023.</p><h2>Latest Results</h2><p>Revenue rose 143% YoY to $382 million, total GMV grew 26% YoY or 32% YoY on a constant currency basis, and loss for the quarter was $342 million.</p><h2>Q4 Guidance</h2><p>Grab sees Q4 Deliveries GMV of $2.40 billion - $2.50 billion, Mobility GMV of $1.10 billion - $1.15 billion, and Financial Services Pre-InterCo TPV of $3.60 billion - $3.70 billion.</p><p>It updated FY22 GMV growth outlook to 22% - 25% Y/Y from the previous 21% - 25% Y/Y,and raised revenue to $1.32 billion - $1.35 billion, up from the last $1.25 billion - $1.30 billion.</p><h2>Grab Introduced Cost-Cutting Measures to Beat the Macro Headwinds</h2><p>Grab&#39;s measures included a freeze on most hirings, salary freezes for senior managers, and cuts in travel and expense budgets.</p><p>Southeast Asia has not, and will not, be spared from rising prices and interest rates and the consequent effects on growth, CEO Anthony Tan said.</p><p>The company tried to stem losses by focusing on higher-paying customers and lowering incentive spending.</p><h2>Grab Reaffirmed Its Pathway to Profitability</h2><p>During its investor day in September this year, the company shared its goal to reach group-adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2024.</p><p>The company reaffirmed this target during the most recent earnings call, saying it remains confident that the $5.3 billion of net cash liquidity as of the third quarter should be a big enough buffer to allow the company to reach its expected group adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2024.</p><h2>Analyst Opinions</h2><p>JPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma downgraded Grab Holdings to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $2.80, down from $3.20. MobilityGMV could fall short of aggressive Street expectations and will be $5.2bn in 2023 and may reach $6bn in 2024.</p><p>Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $3.80. The company may improve degrees of freedom for 2024 breakeven. GMV growth in 2023 will likely remain sober (+9% YoY), and overall revenue growth is forecast at 43%YoY reflecting monetization efforts via lower incentives and better commissions.</p><p>Bank of America analyst Sachin Sagoankar upgraded a Buy rating from Neutral with a price target of $4.20 from $3.60. For mobility, in 2023 they expect the driver supply issue to be resolved. They also expect Grab to reduce its overall pricing to ensure no negative elasticity impact on consumer demand. In delivery, they expect Grab to scale up in grocery and quick commerce to benefit from increasing demand there and offset any slowdown in food. They don’t expect a higher cash burn as the focus appears to be on mid-to-high-end users.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172500092","content_text":"Grab updated FY22 GMV growth outlook to 22% - 25% Y/Y and raised revenue to $1.32 billion - $1.35 billion. However, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America posted mixed views.Grab is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results before the U.S. market opens on February 23, 2023.Latest ResultsRevenue rose 143% YoY to $382 million, total GMV grew 26% YoY or 32% YoY on a constant currency basis, and loss for the quarter was $342 million.Q4 GuidanceGrab sees Q4 Deliveries GMV of $2.40 billion - $2.50 billion, Mobility GMV of $1.10 billion - $1.15 billion, and Financial Services Pre-InterCo TPV of $3.60 billion - $3.70 billion.It updated FY22 GMV growth outlook to 22% - 25% Y/Y from the previous 21% - 25% Y/Y,and raised revenue to $1.32 billion - $1.35 billion, up from the last $1.25 billion - $1.30 billion.Grab Introduced Cost-Cutting Measures to Beat the Macro HeadwindsGrab's measures included a freeze on most hirings, salary freezes for senior managers, and cuts in travel and expense budgets.Southeast Asia has not, and will not, be spared from rising prices and interest rates and the consequent effects on growth, CEO Anthony Tan said.The company tried to stem losses by focusing on higher-paying customers and lowering incentive spending.Grab Reaffirmed Its Pathway to ProfitabilityDuring its investor day in September this year, the company shared its goal to reach group-adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2024.The company reaffirmed this target during the most recent earnings call, saying it remains confident that the $5.3 billion of net cash liquidity as of the third quarter should be a big enough buffer to allow the company to reach its expected group adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the second half of 2024.Analyst OpinionsJPMorgan analyst Ranjan Sharma downgraded Grab Holdings to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $2.80, down from $3.20. MobilityGMV could fall short of aggressive Street expectations and will be $5.2bn in 2023 and may reach $6bn in 2024.Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $3.80. The company may improve degrees of freedom for 2024 breakeven. GMV growth in 2023 will likely remain sober (+9% YoY), and overall revenue growth is forecast at 43%YoY reflecting monetization efforts via lower incentives and better commissions.Bank of America analyst Sachin Sagoankar upgraded a Buy rating from Neutral with a price target of $4.20 from $3.60. For mobility, in 2023 they expect the driver supply issue to be resolved. They also expect Grab to reduce its overall pricing to ensure no negative elasticity impact on consumer demand. In delivery, they expect Grab to scale up in grocery and quick commerce to benefit from increasing demand there and offset any slowdown in food. They don’t expect a higher cash burn as the focus appears to be on mid-to-high-end users.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951138248,"gmtCreate":1673416720084,"gmtModify":1676538833463,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951138248","repostId":"2302632190","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2302632190","pubTimestamp":1673406117,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2302632190?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-11 11:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2302632190","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTSLA's 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction against","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>TSLA&#39;s 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction against a backdrop of plenty of negative news.</li><li>The valuation of the company, which was previously considered too high, no longer seems so high, even if we focus only on free cash flows and their realistic projections.</li><li>I try to incorporate some really conservative assumptions into a DCF model and come up with a fair value of about $98.5 per share.</li><li>So once the price falls below this level, GARP investors might consider gradually building a position in the stock.</li><li>I leave my rating Neutral in the hope that TSLA will slide into undervaluation relatively soon.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf807f19c74502010904c6372b10e2e6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>grandriver/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><h2>Intro &amp; Thesis</h2><p>This is my 5th post on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and the 4th neutral one. In my opinion, the stock has experienced a textbook overreaction, as the valuation of the company, previously considered too high, no longer seems so, even if wefocus only on free cash flows and their realistic projections. I try to incorporate some conservative assumptions into a DCF model and come up with a fair value of about $98.5 per share - it seems to me that once the price falls below this level, GARP investors might consider gradually building a position in the stock.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Price Action: Causes &amp; Consequences</h2><p>Like the rest of the market at the time, Tesla stock began to experience growth problems in early November 2021 when, after rising nearly 60% just 1 month before, it began a sharp decline that was followed by bouts of recovery but eventually marked the beginning of a long-term downtrend that continues to this day.</p><p>The descending channel on the way down formed exciting entry points for TSLA to rally, but selling pressure was so intense that the stock could not resist and continued to update its local lows. As a result, TSLA has fallen &gt;74% from its November 2021 peak and is currently trading about 56% below its 200-day simple moving average:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a28b85e5767a6de072aa2489bc31101\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"310\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TrendSpider, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>One of the biggest problems for the company at the start of its downward trajectory was valuation - recall that Tesla was trading at 160 times and 360 times TTM-based EV/EBITDA and price-to-earnings ratios, respectively, in November 2021:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23ba164f5855603b1dd81c83fba25e8c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"484\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>YCharts, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>The multiple contraction - at least based on the above 3 TTM-based metrics - was about 86.3%, which is too sharp a decline for a simple adjustment based on an interest rate hike. And if we look at the forward ratios, then the multiple contraction in some places reaches ~94%:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5b1684ab867b6d7326ee0f804a94ab5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>To give you an idea of the extent of today&#39;s multiple contraction - during the COVID-19 era, EV/EBITDA ratio bottomed out at about 18-20x, while the 1-year forward ratio is now ~13x.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45de9e952829689c0fd6dcf9f437fdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"421\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>YCharts, TSLA, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>There must be a good reason for such a sharp decline - TSLA has several such reasons at once, and all of them are recent. However, the decline has also accelerated relatively recently - the stock lost &gt;36% over the past month.</p><p><i>The first</i> and perhaps most important reason for the fall is Elon Musk&#39;s refusal to step down as CEO of Twitter until he finds a worthy successor for the role. Tesla investors were [and presumably still are] concerned that the search will drag on and Musk will lose control of his main asset.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b701128d668ffb0d1438291dc6b398e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha News, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p><i>The second</i> news item is huge selling volumes from Musk, who mercilessly sold his shares in large portions in early November and December:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434305643aa50e6a7652c28035f50323\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"567\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>TrendSpider, TSLA&#39;s Insiders, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p><i>The third</i> piece of news is the introduction of a new hiring freeze and further layoffs through 2023 (presumably Q1), as Electrek writes, citing &#34;a reliable source familiar with the matter.&#34;</p><p><i>The fourth piece</i> of news is thehalt of productionin Shanghai, which in 2021 accounted for 51.7% of Tesla&#39;s global production capacity. While the company did not specify a reason for the production halt, Reuters previously reported that the suspension of Model Y assembly at the Shanghai plant at the end of the month would be part of a 30% reduction in planned production for the model in December. Additionally, sources have noted that employees at Tesla&#39;s Gigafactory in Shanghai and supplier plants have been falling ill due to a recent outbreak of COVID cases in the area.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19eb26f1096b415c5a4694ddade53ced\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha News, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p><i>The fifth piece</i> of news is the record deliveries in Q4 2022 that the company announced a few days ago, which unfortunately for TSLA investors did not meet consensus estimates.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acf215e76cf3a376b3eb5ad27020e42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha News, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p><i>The sixth</i> <i>piece</i> of news was an addition to the 4th one - the company was forced to cut prices of its Model Y and Model 3 in China for the second time in less than three months.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a9bbae14d732bd0d60387c76beb4539\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"196\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Seeking Alpha News, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>So all this news has created a kind of perfect storm that has led to an unprecedented multiple contraction discussed above.</p><p>Analysts at some investment banks have added fuel to the fire by massively lowering their price targets after the share price plunge - you know, previous recommendations of $200-250 per share would have assumed 77-87% growth in the stock over the next 12 months, which seems too generous and not permissible for the sell side.</p><p>One of the most significant downgrades, in my opinion, was made by analysts Ryan Brinkman,Rajat Gupta, CFA, Manasvi Garg, et al. of J.P. Morgan. Their valuation calculations and general reasoning seemed the most realistic to me [compared say to BofA and Goldman Sachs] back in October 2022. This time I think the bank&#39;s updated report deserves our attention, just like last time.</p><h2>JPMorgan&#39;s New $125 Target Price - Assumptions And Reality Check</h2><p>It is worth noting that, unlike the Street consensus, JPMorgan analysts expected Tesla to deliver significantly less in Q4 2022, so the company actually slightly outperformed the bank&#39;s internal forecasts by +4%. Citing multiple price cuts in China during the quarter and the $7,500 discount in the U.S. at the end of Q4, JPMorgan lowered its price target from $150 per share [October 2022] to $125 per share as of Jan. 3, 2023:</p><blockquote>4Q deliveries exceeded the 388,500 we had modeled by +4%. However, this modest beat to our deliveries estimate and modest miss to consensus appears to have come at the cost of atypically high discounting (for example, a $7,500 discount in the US late in 4Q more reminiscent of traditional automakers trading at substantially lower earnings multiples, and multiple price cuts in China throughout the quarter). We are lowering our 4Q EPS estimate from $1.19 prior — flowing only the +4% volume beat through our model would have implied EPS of $1.28, although, with the ratcheting down of pricing and margin expectations, we now forecast $1.16.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: JPMorgan on TSLA, January 3, 2023</blockquote><p>It&#39;s interesting to look at the assumptions the bank used in valuing Tesla. They assume that annual sales growth (while remaining impressive overall) is likely to decline every year from now on (they forecast +26% growth in FY2023, +24% in FY2024, and +20% in FY2025), even in the face of growing competition. Tesla&#39;s last model refresh (the updated S &amp; X) dates to spring 2021, and many competing models have entered the market since then. Investors&#39; forecasts for +50% annual growth have been helped by the fact that demand has so far outstripped supply. However, with significant capacity coming online in 2023 as a whole compared to 2022 (annual installed run-rate capacity according to 3Q22 shareholder letter of &gt; 1.9M as Austin and Berlin ramp compared to deliveries of 1.3M. in 2022), supply in FY2023 is unlikely to be the limiting factor on Tesla&#39;s deliveries that it has been in prior years, so a significant miss on deliveries relative to expectations could be particularly damaging to investors&#39; long-term expectations. As a result, analysts have significantly lowered their EPS estimates: FY2023 to $4.60 from $4.84, FY2024 to $5.15 from $5.35, and FY2025 to $5.55 from $5.65.</p><p>The new price target of $125 per share is predicated upon a 50/50 blend of DCF and 2025E-based multiples analysis (itself a blend of P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales). To help you better understand the entire reasoning behind JPM&#39;s model, I have summarized the various parts of the model in one image:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58d337bc7188a17b2eeb4fe14ac90428\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>JPMorgan&#39;s valuation model for Tesla, author&#39;s compilation with notes</span></p><p>The multiple-based analysis consists largely of comparing Tesla by 5 categories:</p><ul><li><i>Disruptive Technology</i>: Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL);</li><li><i>Clean Technology</i>: First Solar (FSLR), SunPower (SPWR);</li><li><i>Auto Tech / Innovation</i>: BorgWarner (BWA), Gentex (GNTX);</li><li><i>Luxury Automakers</i>: BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGAF);</li><li><i>High-Growth Automakers</i>: BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), Great Wall (OTCPK:GWLLF), and SAIC Motor.</li></ul><p>As you can see, JPM did not include classic American manufacturers such as Ford (F) or General Motors (GM) in this list, which is unacceptable in my opinion - after all, the end market for them is almost the same. It seems to me that if the 6th category were included in the above list, the implied value for the entire segment would be somewhat less than the $148 per share we see now. So the DCF-based projections are a much more reliable metric, in my opinion.</p><p>I propose to independently build a DCF model to value TSLA stock -<i>how realistic is the current price in terms of its &#34;intrinsic value&#34;?</i></p><h2>DCF Based On My Reality</h2><p>I write &#34;<i>My Reality</i>&#34; because some of the assumptions I will take as a basis will most likely not coincide with yours - this is perfectly normal, I suggest discussing our contradictions in the comments section.</p><p>JPM has projected a gradual decline in revenue growth from +26% to +20% in the last projected year (FY25) - I want to be even more conservative here and assume that revenue will grow at a rate of 20% from FY23 to FY25, and by only 15% in FY26. Also, I expect the EBITDA margin to drop to 8% in FY23 (TTM EBITDA margin now = 21.65%) and EBIT margin to be negative -50 bps due to increased expenses (TTM EBIT margin now = 16.83%). So, I try to take into account the whole cascade of negative news I described at the very beginning of this article in the model. I also want to take into account the rather high risk of a recession somewhere in the middle of 2023, which I have mentioned repeatedly in my articles.</p><p>D&amp;A as a percentage of total revenue is expected to remain constant at 7.5% throughout the forecast period, although this percentage has declined rapidly in recent years - I expect D&amp;A non-cash costs to return to 2018-2019 levels as the asset base increases.</p><p>The working capital ratios - receivables to sales, inventories to sales, payables to sales - look fairly consistent and can be easily extrapolated for several years into the future without major changes [focus on averages]. The ratio of CAPEX to sales is one of the most important inputs, as this assumption strongly influences FCF generation. In the past, this ratio was quite variable. However, as Tesla scaled its operations, the ratio of this metric systematically decreased:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccdcae0fc8c85194f0715743a4ba20c3\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In the event of a recession in 2023, I expect CAPEX-to-revenue to fall even further - to 7%. In 2024, it will grow again (8%) and gradually reach 9% in FY26 as production continues to expand.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a583e039e8dbab7ed4ba1d0c2ea6924\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"220\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>stratosphere.io, author&#39;s inputs</span></p><p>The WACC of TSLA calculated by JPM at 12.3% is significantly more plausible than the WACC of Morgan Stanley at 9%.I calculate my WACC based on the CAPM model:</p><ul><li>beta = 1.9;</li><li>cost of debt = 8%;</li><li>tax rate = 15%;</li><li>risk-free rate = 3.6%;</li><li>cost of equity = 4.7%</li></ul><p>So my WACC is only 0.3% higher than JPM&#39;s - 12.6%. In my opinion, this is a very reasonable discount rate for the risk investors take in buying Tesla shares.</p><p>The only point where my model differs fundamentally from the JPM model is the long-term growth rate, in place of which I will use the EV/EBITDA exit multiple. Why?</p><p>Because if I take the same 10% long-term growth rate and lower it slightly, say to 9.5%, then my bottom line - TSLA&#39;s intrinsic share price - will drop almost 19%. In my opinion, this kind of sensitivity is unacceptable - it&#39;s much more reasonable to imagine what exit multiple Tesla might be trading at in a few years. In terms of EV/EBITDA, it&#39;s 13x today. Let us assume that despite the obvious market overreaction, TSLA&#39;s EV/EBITDA ratio does not rise [but does not fall much either] - 12x seems like a reasonable assumption to me.</p><p><i>So what is the result of all the above?</i></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13419ad1fee629fc6c9ba13bbcd52b0c\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"922\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Author&#39;s calculations</span></p><p>My model turned out to be very independent of how the WACC changes - that&#39;s not quite correct, but it&#39;s better than having it change 180 degrees after every little fluctuation in inputs.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc6371f1b624e264d364f70b147f8bb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"200\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sensitivity table for author&#39;s DCF</span></p><h2>The Verdict For Tesla Stock</h2><p>No one knows exactly when the downward slide of Tesla stock will end. However, one thing seems clear to me - TSLA&#39;s 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction against a backdrop of plenty of negative news and a lack of positive news for the company.</p><p>At the end of December, I assumed that TSLA would experience a strong rebound (then from a level of ~$120 per share) after Elon Musk announced that he would not sell his shares for another 1-2 years. And this one positive news would most likely be enough if no new negative news came. However, now the stock is quickly approaching its fair value, which can be achieved even based on very conservative assumptions.</p><p>I calculated that Tesla&#39;s fair value is about 13% below current levels. So investors looking for growth at a good price should start taking TSLA positions as soon as the next sell-off develops.</p><p>Since my fair price is lower than the current one and the market is moving very fast, I leave my rating Neutral in the hope that TSLA will slide into undervaluation relatively soon.</p><p><i>This article is written by Danil Sereda for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock: Go Fishing Below $100?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-11 11:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568946-tesla-stock-go-fishing-below-100><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTSLA's 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction against a backdrop of plenty of negative news.The valuation of the company, which was previously considered...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568946-tesla-stock-go-fishing-below-100\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568946-tesla-stock-go-fishing-below-100","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2302632190","content_text":"SummaryTSLA's 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction against a backdrop of plenty of negative news.The valuation of the company, which was previously considered too high, no longer seems so high, even if we focus only on free cash flows and their realistic projections.I try to incorporate some really conservative assumptions into a DCF model and come up with a fair value of about $98.5 per share.So once the price falls below this level, GARP investors might consider gradually building a position in the stock.I leave my rating Neutral in the hope that TSLA will slide into undervaluation relatively soon.grandriver/E+ via Getty ImagesIntro & ThesisThis is my 5th post on Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and the 4th neutral one. In my opinion, the stock has experienced a textbook overreaction, as the valuation of the company, previously considered too high, no longer seems so, even if wefocus only on free cash flows and their realistic projections. I try to incorporate some conservative assumptions into a DCF model and come up with a fair value of about $98.5 per share - it seems to me that once the price falls below this level, GARP investors might consider gradually building a position in the stock.Tesla's Price Action: Causes & ConsequencesLike the rest of the market at the time, Tesla stock began to experience growth problems in early November 2021 when, after rising nearly 60% just 1 month before, it began a sharp decline that was followed by bouts of recovery but eventually marked the beginning of a long-term downtrend that continues to this day.The descending channel on the way down formed exciting entry points for TSLA to rally, but selling pressure was so intense that the stock could not resist and continued to update its local lows. As a result, TSLA has fallen >74% from its November 2021 peak and is currently trading about 56% below its 200-day simple moving average:TrendSpider, TSLA, author's notesOne of the biggest problems for the company at the start of its downward trajectory was valuation - recall that Tesla was trading at 160 times and 360 times TTM-based EV/EBITDA and price-to-earnings ratios, respectively, in November 2021:YCharts, TSLA, author's notesThe multiple contraction - at least based on the above 3 TTM-based metrics - was about 86.3%, which is too sharp a decline for a simple adjustment based on an interest rate hike. And if we look at the forward ratios, then the multiple contraction in some places reaches ~94%:Data by YChartsTo give you an idea of the extent of today's multiple contraction - during the COVID-19 era, EV/EBITDA ratio bottomed out at about 18-20x, while the 1-year forward ratio is now ~13x.YCharts, TSLA, author's notesThere must be a good reason for such a sharp decline - TSLA has several such reasons at once, and all of them are recent. However, the decline has also accelerated relatively recently - the stock lost >36% over the past month.The first and perhaps most important reason for the fall is Elon Musk's refusal to step down as CEO of Twitter until he finds a worthy successor for the role. Tesla investors were [and presumably still are] concerned that the search will drag on and Musk will lose control of his main asset.Seeking Alpha News, author's notesThe second news item is huge selling volumes from Musk, who mercilessly sold his shares in large portions in early November and December:TrendSpider, TSLA's Insiders, author's notesThe third piece of news is the introduction of a new hiring freeze and further layoffs through 2023 (presumably Q1), as Electrek writes, citing \"a reliable source familiar with the matter.\"The fourth piece of news is thehalt of productionin Shanghai, which in 2021 accounted for 51.7% of Tesla's global production capacity. While the company did not specify a reason for the production halt, Reuters previously reported that the suspension of Model Y assembly at the Shanghai plant at the end of the month would be part of a 30% reduction in planned production for the model in December. Additionally, sources have noted that employees at Tesla's Gigafactory in Shanghai and supplier plants have been falling ill due to a recent outbreak of COVID cases in the area.Seeking Alpha News, author's notesThe fifth piece of news is the record deliveries in Q4 2022 that the company announced a few days ago, which unfortunately for TSLA investors did not meet consensus estimates.Seeking Alpha News, author's notesThe sixth piece of news was an addition to the 4th one - the company was forced to cut prices of its Model Y and Model 3 in China for the second time in less than three months.Seeking Alpha News, author's notesSo all this news has created a kind of perfect storm that has led to an unprecedented multiple contraction discussed above.Analysts at some investment banks have added fuel to the fire by massively lowering their price targets after the share price plunge - you know, previous recommendations of $200-250 per share would have assumed 77-87% growth in the stock over the next 12 months, which seems too generous and not permissible for the sell side.One of the most significant downgrades, in my opinion, was made by analysts Ryan Brinkman,Rajat Gupta, CFA, Manasvi Garg, et al. of J.P. Morgan. Their valuation calculations and general reasoning seemed the most realistic to me [compared say to BofA and Goldman Sachs] back in October 2022. This time I think the bank's updated report deserves our attention, just like last time.JPMorgan's New $125 Target Price - Assumptions And Reality CheckIt is worth noting that, unlike the Street consensus, JPMorgan analysts expected Tesla to deliver significantly less in Q4 2022, so the company actually slightly outperformed the bank's internal forecasts by +4%. Citing multiple price cuts in China during the quarter and the $7,500 discount in the U.S. at the end of Q4, JPMorgan lowered its price target from $150 per share [October 2022] to $125 per share as of Jan. 3, 2023:4Q deliveries exceeded the 388,500 we had modeled by +4%. However, this modest beat to our deliveries estimate and modest miss to consensus appears to have come at the cost of atypically high discounting (for example, a $7,500 discount in the US late in 4Q more reminiscent of traditional automakers trading at substantially lower earnings multiples, and multiple price cuts in China throughout the quarter). We are lowering our 4Q EPS estimate from $1.19 prior — flowing only the +4% volume beat through our model would have implied EPS of $1.28, although, with the ratcheting down of pricing and margin expectations, we now forecast $1.16.Source: JPMorgan on TSLA, January 3, 2023It's interesting to look at the assumptions the bank used in valuing Tesla. They assume that annual sales growth (while remaining impressive overall) is likely to decline every year from now on (they forecast +26% growth in FY2023, +24% in FY2024, and +20% in FY2025), even in the face of growing competition. Tesla's last model refresh (the updated S & X) dates to spring 2021, and many competing models have entered the market since then. Investors' forecasts for +50% annual growth have been helped by the fact that demand has so far outstripped supply. However, with significant capacity coming online in 2023 as a whole compared to 2022 (annual installed run-rate capacity according to 3Q22 shareholder letter of > 1.9M as Austin and Berlin ramp compared to deliveries of 1.3M. in 2022), supply in FY2023 is unlikely to be the limiting factor on Tesla's deliveries that it has been in prior years, so a significant miss on deliveries relative to expectations could be particularly damaging to investors' long-term expectations. As a result, analysts have significantly lowered their EPS estimates: FY2023 to $4.60 from $4.84, FY2024 to $5.15 from $5.35, and FY2025 to $5.55 from $5.65.The new price target of $125 per share is predicated upon a 50/50 blend of DCF and 2025E-based multiples analysis (itself a blend of P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales). To help you better understand the entire reasoning behind JPM's model, I have summarized the various parts of the model in one image:JPMorgan's valuation model for Tesla, author's compilation with notesThe multiple-based analysis consists largely of comparing Tesla by 5 categories:Disruptive Technology: Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL);Clean Technology: First Solar (FSLR), SunPower (SPWR);Auto Tech / Innovation: BorgWarner (BWA), Gentex (GNTX);Luxury Automakers: BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY), Mercedes (OTCPK:MBGAF);High-Growth Automakers: BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF), Great Wall (OTCPK:GWLLF), and SAIC Motor.As you can see, JPM did not include classic American manufacturers such as Ford (F) or General Motors (GM) in this list, which is unacceptable in my opinion - after all, the end market for them is almost the same. It seems to me that if the 6th category were included in the above list, the implied value for the entire segment would be somewhat less than the $148 per share we see now. So the DCF-based projections are a much more reliable metric, in my opinion.I propose to independently build a DCF model to value TSLA stock -how realistic is the current price in terms of its \"intrinsic value\"?DCF Based On My RealityI write \"My Reality\" because some of the assumptions I will take as a basis will most likely not coincide with yours - this is perfectly normal, I suggest discussing our contradictions in the comments section.JPM has projected a gradual decline in revenue growth from +26% to +20% in the last projected year (FY25) - I want to be even more conservative here and assume that revenue will grow at a rate of 20% from FY23 to FY25, and by only 15% in FY26. Also, I expect the EBITDA margin to drop to 8% in FY23 (TTM EBITDA margin now = 21.65%) and EBIT margin to be negative -50 bps due to increased expenses (TTM EBIT margin now = 16.83%). So, I try to take into account the whole cascade of negative news I described at the very beginning of this article in the model. I also want to take into account the rather high risk of a recession somewhere in the middle of 2023, which I have mentioned repeatedly in my articles.D&A as a percentage of total revenue is expected to remain constant at 7.5% throughout the forecast period, although this percentage has declined rapidly in recent years - I expect D&A non-cash costs to return to 2018-2019 levels as the asset base increases.The working capital ratios - receivables to sales, inventories to sales, payables to sales - look fairly consistent and can be easily extrapolated for several years into the future without major changes [focus on averages]. The ratio of CAPEX to sales is one of the most important inputs, as this assumption strongly influences FCF generation. In the past, this ratio was quite variable. However, as Tesla scaled its operations, the ratio of this metric systematically decreased:Data by YChartsIn the event of a recession in 2023, I expect CAPEX-to-revenue to fall even further - to 7%. In 2024, it will grow again (8%) and gradually reach 9% in FY26 as production continues to expand.stratosphere.io, author's inputsThe WACC of TSLA calculated by JPM at 12.3% is significantly more plausible than the WACC of Morgan Stanley at 9%.I calculate my WACC based on the CAPM model:beta = 1.9;cost of debt = 8%;tax rate = 15%;risk-free rate = 3.6%;cost of equity = 4.7%So my WACC is only 0.3% higher than JPM's - 12.6%. In my opinion, this is a very reasonable discount rate for the risk investors take in buying Tesla shares.The only point where my model differs fundamentally from the JPM model is the long-term growth rate, in place of which I will use the EV/EBITDA exit multiple. Why?Because if I take the same 10% long-term growth rate and lower it slightly, say to 9.5%, then my bottom line - TSLA's intrinsic share price - will drop almost 19%. In my opinion, this kind of sensitivity is unacceptable - it's much more reasonable to imagine what exit multiple Tesla might be trading at in a few years. In terms of EV/EBITDA, it's 13x today. Let us assume that despite the obvious market overreaction, TSLA's EV/EBITDA ratio does not rise [but does not fall much either] - 12x seems like a reasonable assumption to me.So what is the result of all the above?Source: Author's calculationsMy model turned out to be very independent of how the WACC changes - that's not quite correct, but it's better than having it change 180 degrees after every little fluctuation in inputs.Sensitivity table for author's DCFThe Verdict For Tesla StockNo one knows exactly when the downward slide of Tesla stock will end. However, one thing seems clear to me - TSLA's 43% drop in just 2 last months looks like a textbook stock market overreaction against a backdrop of plenty of negative news and a lack of positive news for the company.At the end of December, I assumed that TSLA would experience a strong rebound (then from a level of ~$120 per share) after Elon Musk announced that he would not sell his shares for another 1-2 years. And this one positive news would most likely be enough if no new negative news came. However, now the stock is quickly approaching its fair value, which can be achieved even based on very conservative assumptions.I calculated that Tesla's fair value is about 13% below current levels. So investors looking for growth at a good price should start taking TSLA positions as soon as the next sell-off develops.Since my fair price is lower than the current one and the market is moving very fast, I leave my rating Neutral in the hope that TSLA will slide into undervaluation relatively soon.This article is written by Danil Sereda for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":73,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951138646,"gmtCreate":1673416711486,"gmtModify":1676538833463,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951138646","repostId":"2302632190","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951007346,"gmtCreate":1673350054386,"gmtModify":1676538822118,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951007346","repostId":"2302503506","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953337620,"gmtCreate":1673152236861,"gmtModify":1676538793054,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953337620","repostId":"2301720269","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950615957,"gmtCreate":1672744994480,"gmtModify":1676538729301,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950615957","repostId":"2300178816","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950987747,"gmtCreate":1672642129590,"gmtModify":1676538715112,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950987747","repostId":"1105874821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105874821","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672621372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105874821?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-02 09:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2022 Recap: Top 10 ETFs' Performance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105874821","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Energy ETFs dominated 2022’s top funds.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Energy ETFs dominated 2022’s top funds. The top-performing ETF, once you filter out leveraged and inverse products, was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUR\">iShares MSCI Turkey ETF</a> with a monster return of 105.81% through Dec. 31.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38f8ec750fb75826f2193bf24322d6fa\" tg-width=\"1407\" tg-height=\"1996\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Turkey’s lira plummeted during the year while inflation soared as high as 80%. However, that was what drove the stock market’s outstanding performance, as domestic investors plowed in assets to hedge against skyrocketing prices.</p><p>Despite its outsized returns, U.S. investors aren’t taking the bait, and the fund has seen $82.8 million in outflows year-to-date. Indeed, a recentBloomberg articlenotes that foreign ownership of Turkish stocks hit record lows.</p><p>The top performers are energy related with one exception. The $2.6 billion <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OIH\">VanEck Oil Services ETF </a> was in the No. 2 spot with a gain of 66.17%, followed by the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IEZ\">iShares U.S. Oil Equipment &amp; Services ETF</a> with a return of 65.74%.</p><p>Ultimately the remaining energy funds in the top 10 ETFs in terms of returns were up anywhere from 58.27% (the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PXE\">Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration &amp; Production ETF</a>) to 64.17% ( <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLE\">Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund </a>). Almost all of those were equity funds; however, the United States 12-Month <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNL\">Natural Gas Fund LP </a> was in the mix with a return of 57%. The fund invests in natural gas futures via a laddered strategy that maintains equal-weight exposure to the 12 nearest-month NYMEX natural gas futures.</p><p>According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, energy costs for Americans saw an average increase of 13% year-over-year as of November.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022 Recap: Top 10 ETFs' Performance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022 Recap: Top 10 ETFs' Performance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-02 09:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Energy ETFs dominated 2022’s top funds. The top-performing ETF, once you filter out leveraged and inverse products, was <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUR\">iShares MSCI Turkey ETF</a> with a monster return of 105.81% through Dec. 31.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38f8ec750fb75826f2193bf24322d6fa\" tg-width=\"1407\" tg-height=\"1996\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Turkey’s lira plummeted during the year while inflation soared as high as 80%. However, that was what drove the stock market’s outstanding performance, as domestic investors plowed in assets to hedge against skyrocketing prices.</p><p>Despite its outsized returns, U.S. investors aren’t taking the bait, and the fund has seen $82.8 million in outflows year-to-date. Indeed, a recentBloomberg articlenotes that foreign ownership of Turkish stocks hit record lows.</p><p>The top performers are energy related with one exception. The $2.6 billion <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OIH\">VanEck Oil Services ETF </a> was in the No. 2 spot with a gain of 66.17%, followed by the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IEZ\">iShares U.S. Oil Equipment &amp; Services ETF</a> with a return of 65.74%.</p><p>Ultimately the remaining energy funds in the top 10 ETFs in terms of returns were up anywhere from 58.27% (the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PXE\">Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration &amp; Production ETF</a>) to 64.17% ( <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLE\">Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund </a>). Almost all of those were equity funds; however, the United States 12-Month <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNL\">Natural Gas Fund LP </a> was in the mix with a return of 57%. The fund invests in natural gas futures via a laddered strategy that maintains equal-weight exposure to the 12 nearest-month NYMEX natural gas futures.</p><p>According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, energy costs for Americans saw an average increase of 13% year-over-year as of November.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","XES":"SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF","TUR":"土耳其ETF-iShares MSCI","IEZ":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil Equip","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","IYE":"iShares U.S. Energy ETF","OIH":"石油服务ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105874821","content_text":"Energy ETFs dominated 2022’s top funds. The top-performing ETF, once you filter out leveraged and inverse products, was iShares MSCI Turkey ETF with a monster return of 105.81% through Dec. 31.Turkey’s lira plummeted during the year while inflation soared as high as 80%. However, that was what drove the stock market’s outstanding performance, as domestic investors plowed in assets to hedge against skyrocketing prices.Despite its outsized returns, U.S. investors aren’t taking the bait, and the fund has seen $82.8 million in outflows year-to-date. Indeed, a recentBloomberg articlenotes that foreign ownership of Turkish stocks hit record lows.The top performers are energy related with one exception. The $2.6 billion VanEck Oil Services ETF  was in the No. 2 spot with a gain of 66.17%, followed by the iShares U.S. Oil Equipment & Services ETF with a return of 65.74%.Ultimately the remaining energy funds in the top 10 ETFs in terms of returns were up anywhere from 58.27% (the Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF) to 64.17% ( Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ). Almost all of those were equity funds; however, the United States 12-Month Natural Gas Fund LP  was in the mix with a return of 57%. The fund invests in natural gas futures via a laddered strategy that maintains equal-weight exposure to the 12 nearest-month NYMEX natural gas futures.According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, energy costs for Americans saw an average increase of 13% year-over-year as of November.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927628253,"gmtCreate":1672477710372,"gmtModify":1676538696138,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927628253","repostId":"1131331146","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927133421,"gmtCreate":1672415411464,"gmtModify":1676538688415,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927133421","repostId":"2295554929","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2295554929","pubTimestamp":1672415137,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2295554929?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-30 23:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Buy The Bloodbath","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2295554929","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryTesla has seen an accelerating decline in December with the stock losing 42%.Other controversies surrounding Elon Musk have created negative sentiment overhang, resulting in a soaring short int","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3><b>Summary</b></h3><ul><li>Tesla has seen an accelerating decline in December with the stock losing 42%.</li><li>Other controversies surrounding Elon Musk have created negative sentiment overhang, resulting in a soaring short interest for Tesla.</li><li>However, Tesla has a very attractive valuation and risk profile right now.</li></ul><p>A unique buying opportunity has revealed itself for shares of electric vehicle company <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> which experienced an intensifying sell-off in December that is putting Tesla on track to its worst month ever. After Tesla lost more than $800B in market cap this year and controversy mounted over Elon Musk&#39;s time-consuming involvement with Twitter/stock sales, I believe the risk profile and the valuation are at their most attractive points in years. Considering that China&#39;s economy is reopening and that Tesla has the most mature footprint in the EV industry, I believe the valuation drop and negative sentiment overhang make Tesla very compelling as a long-term EV investment.</p><h2>Tesla is ending a terrible year with its worst monthly performance ever</h2><p>Tesla is ending FY 2022 with massive valuation losses that have yielded enormous windfall profits for short sellers that bet against the electric vehicle company at the beginning of the year. Tesla&#39;s shares have experienced a bloodbath this year, losing 68% YTD and 42% so far this month, making December 2022 potentially the worst month for the electric vehicle company ever.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b016866b26d76d99fd4332604cbff3fd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h2>Controversies are weighing on Tesla&#39;s valuation, soaring short interest</h2><p>There are multiple controversies that played a role in Tesla&#39;s stock plunge, including the extraordinary amount of time Elon Musk spends on Twitter, COVID-19 lockdowns in China that interrupted the ramp of Tesla&#39;s Model 3 and Model Y as well as his unprecedented sales of Tesla stock in order to finance the acquisition of Twitter. According to a disclosure made on December 14, 2022, Elon Musk recently sold 22M shares of Tesla between December 12 and December 14, resulting in transaction proceeds of $3.6B. Although Elon Musk later said on Twitter Spaces that he won&#39;t sell any more shares over the next 18-24 months, investors don&#39;t seem to believe it, at least for now.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f395d39826c8e23997eeb11280dd73cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"173\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Electrek</p><p>Additionally, a big problem for Tesla has been that short sellers took advantage of Tesla&#39;s downfall in December which resulted in a soaring short interest ratio for shares of Tesla. Soaring short interest, in my opinion, could also be seen as a contrarian indicator.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/573fa987e96d402354e65cdec79cde4c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: Yahoo Finance</p><p>But putting all this noise aside, I believe investors that focus on Tesla&#39;s achievements in the EV industry and potential for long-term growth actually get really good value now.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s factory output in China recovered and reached a fresh high</h2><p>After multiple production setbacks in FY 2022 due to factory lockdowns in China, production and deliveries at Tesla&#39;s Shanghai Gigafactory are ramping up rapidly. Tesla delivered 100,291 electric vehicles in November, showing 90% year-over-year growth. It was also a new 4-month reopening high for Tesla and it is an achievement the electric vehicle company can build on in the coming months. With about 100,000 electric vehicles produced in November, Tesla could achieve a 1.2M production volume in FY 2023, but potentially much more as I expect a ramp in production after the Gigafactory in Shanghai reopens after the Chinese New Year. The new delivery record is good news for investors, chiefly because the market ignored it and seems overly obsessed with other non-production related factors surrounding Tesla. A contrarian indicator, perhaps? I think so!</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d60d5fc681c7265ba2a21f440844f2e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Source: InsideEVs</p><p>The broad reopening of the Chinese economy and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions could be a catalyst for Tesla&#39;s growth in deliveries, but the real reason to buy Tesla, I believe, is the valuation: after a near-70% drawdown in the firm&#39;s valuation this year, Tesla is actually compellingly cheap, at least based off of its historical standard.</p><h2>Is Tesla&#39;s unprecedented price drop alone a reason to buy the shares?</h2><p>The 42% decline in Tesla&#39;s valuation in December and 68% decline in 2022 has reduced a lot of the premium that was built into the EV firm&#39;s valuation in the past. Since Tesla was punished for a variety of factors that were totally unrelated to Tesla&#39;s execution (Twitter distraction, stock sales) or of only temporary nature, such as China&#39;s factory lockdowns, I believe Tesla is currently extremely attractively valued based on a variety of metrics.</p><p>Tesla is the leading EV company in the world (based on output and revenues) and is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 20.4x and that&#39;s despite Tesla being projected to generate 34% year-over-year EPS growth in FY 2023. Compared against its historical valuation, Tesla is a bargain with its P/E ratio trading more than 50% below its 1-year average P/E ratio of 46.6x.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08d92a1d38d6366b57078028e1112f60\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Given the expected launch of the Cybertruck next year and a continual recovery in China-based production volumes, I believe a change in investor sentiment could also drive an upwards revaluation of Tesla&#39;s revenue estimates. The trend for Tesla&#39;s revenue estimates was generally a positive one in FY 2022, despite production limitations and other distractions. According to Seeking Alpha-provided estimates, Tesla is expected to grow its revenues 37% in FY 2023 and 26% in FY 2024, with the Cybertruck expected to make its first revenue contributions in the second half of next year. I believe that Tesla could deliver 80-90 thousand Cybertrucks in FY 2023 before ramping deliveries up to 200 thousand by FY 2024.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d3d31f4107435d218d22ae093fe331b\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Based off of revenues, Tesla is also looking increasingly attractive with the firm&#39;s revenue potential now being cheaper than that of Lucid Group (LCID), despite Tesla already delivering millions of cars to customers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abd29ac0744982704419373383495922\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Right now, Tesla&#39;s forward P/S ratio is 56% below its 1-year average P/S ratio. Almost all of the under-performance relative to the 1-year P/S average has occurred since the end of October.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f7b416c0976165ab4b552eeefb86682\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h2>Tesla is oversold</h2><p>What makes Tesla especially attractive, I believe, is the technical sentiment reflected in the Relative Strength Index. Tesla has become widely oversold based on this index lately and shows a value of 20.2. Tesla hasn&#39;t been this technically oversold in at least a year. While I don&#39;t decide how and where to invest based on RSI, it can be seen as a contrarian indicator (in connection with Tesla&#39;s soaring short interest).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/715da9e1d601b67ca63adac3a1600654\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h2>Risks with Tesla</h2><p>There are many risks with Tesla including the possibility of further stock sales on the part of Elon Musk which could further depress Tesla&#39;s share price, but likely only in the near term as the recovery in Tesla&#39;s China production is a strong catalyst for delivery growth in FY 2023. Additionally, Tesla&#39;s short interest may remain high in the short term as bears seek to exploit Tesla&#39;s draw-down to the fullest. In the longer term, however, real economic concerns should take precedence for Tesla investors and I definitely see pricing and demand risks here for the electric vehicle sector. EV companies may see compressing vehicle margins as inflation continues to pressure consumers and higher raw material/battery costs represent a challenge as well. Since Tesla has the most mature production footprint in the sector, I believe Tesla is in the best position to deal with such risks.</p><h2>Final thoughts</h2><p>Tesla had a terrible December with the price of the EV firm&#39;s shares dropping 42% so far this month and December 2022 will likely end as the worst month for Tesla&#39;s shares ever. There are reasons for the decline in Tesla&#39;s market cap, but none, I believe, are related to either Tesla&#39;s execution or Tesla&#39;s growth prospects. The fact that Tesla&#39;s short interest has soared in December and short sellers piled on the EV company, resulting in oversold technical sentiment, is actually the precise reason why I like Tesla more than ever.</p><p>The market has become too fearful of Tesla due to a series of unfavorable news, but I believe all of the factors discussed here (Twitter, stock sales, production setbacks) are transitory and Tesla could soon be able to recover from this unprecedented sell-off, especially if the market&#39;s focus returns to Tesla&#39;s improving delivery growth and a reopening Chinese economy. Since the shares have a very attractive valuation and the best risk profile in years, I believe investors should lean into the fear and buy the bloodbath!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Buy The Bloodbath</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Buy The Bloodbath\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-30 23:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567014-tesla-stock-bloodbath-buy><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla has seen an accelerating decline in December with the stock losing 42%.Other controversies surrounding Elon Musk have created negative sentiment overhang, resulting in a soaring short ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567014-tesla-stock-bloodbath-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4567014-tesla-stock-bloodbath-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2295554929","content_text":"SummaryTesla has seen an accelerating decline in December with the stock losing 42%.Other controversies surrounding Elon Musk have created negative sentiment overhang, resulting in a soaring short interest for Tesla.However, Tesla has a very attractive valuation and risk profile right now.A unique buying opportunity has revealed itself for shares of electric vehicle company Tesla which experienced an intensifying sell-off in December that is putting Tesla on track to its worst month ever. After Tesla lost more than $800B in market cap this year and controversy mounted over Elon Musk's time-consuming involvement with Twitter/stock sales, I believe the risk profile and the valuation are at their most attractive points in years. Considering that China's economy is reopening and that Tesla has the most mature footprint in the EV industry, I believe the valuation drop and negative sentiment overhang make Tesla very compelling as a long-term EV investment.Tesla is ending a terrible year with its worst monthly performance everTesla is ending FY 2022 with massive valuation losses that have yielded enormous windfall profits for short sellers that bet against the electric vehicle company at the beginning of the year. Tesla's shares have experienced a bloodbath this year, losing 68% YTD and 42% so far this month, making December 2022 potentially the worst month for the electric vehicle company ever.Data by YChartsControversies are weighing on Tesla's valuation, soaring short interestThere are multiple controversies that played a role in Tesla's stock plunge, including the extraordinary amount of time Elon Musk spends on Twitter, COVID-19 lockdowns in China that interrupted the ramp of Tesla's Model 3 and Model Y as well as his unprecedented sales of Tesla stock in order to finance the acquisition of Twitter. According to a disclosure made on December 14, 2022, Elon Musk recently sold 22M shares of Tesla between December 12 and December 14, resulting in transaction proceeds of $3.6B. Although Elon Musk later said on Twitter Spaces that he won't sell any more shares over the next 18-24 months, investors don't seem to believe it, at least for now.Source: ElectrekAdditionally, a big problem for Tesla has been that short sellers took advantage of Tesla's downfall in December which resulted in a soaring short interest ratio for shares of Tesla. Soaring short interest, in my opinion, could also be seen as a contrarian indicator.Source: Yahoo FinanceBut putting all this noise aside, I believe investors that focus on Tesla's achievements in the EV industry and potential for long-term growth actually get really good value now.Tesla's factory output in China recovered and reached a fresh highAfter multiple production setbacks in FY 2022 due to factory lockdowns in China, production and deliveries at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory are ramping up rapidly. Tesla delivered 100,291 electric vehicles in November, showing 90% year-over-year growth. It was also a new 4-month reopening high for Tesla and it is an achievement the electric vehicle company can build on in the coming months. With about 100,000 electric vehicles produced in November, Tesla could achieve a 1.2M production volume in FY 2023, but potentially much more as I expect a ramp in production after the Gigafactory in Shanghai reopens after the Chinese New Year. The new delivery record is good news for investors, chiefly because the market ignored it and seems overly obsessed with other non-production related factors surrounding Tesla. A contrarian indicator, perhaps? I think so!Source: InsideEVsThe broad reopening of the Chinese economy and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions could be a catalyst for Tesla's growth in deliveries, but the real reason to buy Tesla, I believe, is the valuation: after a near-70% drawdown in the firm's valuation this year, Tesla is actually compellingly cheap, at least based off of its historical standard.Is Tesla's unprecedented price drop alone a reason to buy the shares?The 42% decline in Tesla's valuation in December and 68% decline in 2022 has reduced a lot of the premium that was built into the EV firm's valuation in the past. Since Tesla was punished for a variety of factors that were totally unrelated to Tesla's execution (Twitter distraction, stock sales) or of only temporary nature, such as China's factory lockdowns, I believe Tesla is currently extremely attractively valued based on a variety of metrics.Tesla is the leading EV company in the world (based on output and revenues) and is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 20.4x and that's despite Tesla being projected to generate 34% year-over-year EPS growth in FY 2023. Compared against its historical valuation, Tesla is a bargain with its P/E ratio trading more than 50% below its 1-year average P/E ratio of 46.6x.Data by YChartsGiven the expected launch of the Cybertruck next year and a continual recovery in China-based production volumes, I believe a change in investor sentiment could also drive an upwards revaluation of Tesla's revenue estimates. The trend for Tesla's revenue estimates was generally a positive one in FY 2022, despite production limitations and other distractions. According to Seeking Alpha-provided estimates, Tesla is expected to grow its revenues 37% in FY 2023 and 26% in FY 2024, with the Cybertruck expected to make its first revenue contributions in the second half of next year. I believe that Tesla could deliver 80-90 thousand Cybertrucks in FY 2023 before ramping deliveries up to 200 thousand by FY 2024.Data by YChartsBased off of revenues, Tesla is also looking increasingly attractive with the firm's revenue potential now being cheaper than that of Lucid Group (LCID), despite Tesla already delivering millions of cars to customers.Data by YChartsRight now, Tesla's forward P/S ratio is 56% below its 1-year average P/S ratio. Almost all of the under-performance relative to the 1-year P/S average has occurred since the end of October.Data by YChartsTesla is oversoldWhat makes Tesla especially attractive, I believe, is the technical sentiment reflected in the Relative Strength Index. Tesla has become widely oversold based on this index lately and shows a value of 20.2. Tesla hasn't been this technically oversold in at least a year. While I don't decide how and where to invest based on RSI, it can be seen as a contrarian indicator (in connection with Tesla's soaring short interest).Data by YChartsRisks with TeslaThere are many risks with Tesla including the possibility of further stock sales on the part of Elon Musk which could further depress Tesla's share price, but likely only in the near term as the recovery in Tesla's China production is a strong catalyst for delivery growth in FY 2023. Additionally, Tesla's short interest may remain high in the short term as bears seek to exploit Tesla's draw-down to the fullest. In the longer term, however, real economic concerns should take precedence for Tesla investors and I definitely see pricing and demand risks here for the electric vehicle sector. EV companies may see compressing vehicle margins as inflation continues to pressure consumers and higher raw material/battery costs represent a challenge as well. Since Tesla has the most mature production footprint in the sector, I believe Tesla is in the best position to deal with such risks.Final thoughtsTesla had a terrible December with the price of the EV firm's shares dropping 42% so far this month and December 2022 will likely end as the worst month for Tesla's shares ever. There are reasons for the decline in Tesla's market cap, but none, I believe, are related to either Tesla's execution or Tesla's growth prospects. The fact that Tesla's short interest has soared in December and short sellers piled on the EV company, resulting in oversold technical sentiment, is actually the precise reason why I like Tesla more than ever.The market has become too fearful of Tesla due to a series of unfavorable news, but I believe all of the factors discussed here (Twitter, stock sales, production setbacks) are transitory and Tesla could soon be able to recover from this unprecedented sell-off, especially if the market's focus returns to Tesla's improving delivery growth and a reopening Chinese economy. Since the shares have a very attractive valuation and the best risk profile in years, I believe investors should lean into the fear and buy the bloodbath!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924494477,"gmtCreate":1672303347699,"gmtModify":1676538668729,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924494477","repostId":"1137209740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137209740","pubTimestamp":1672328467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137209740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-29 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137209740","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Tesla is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.</li><li>The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.</li><li>A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.</li><li>Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&amp;P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla&#39;s stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors &#34;Teslanaires&#34;. However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla&#39;s Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn&#39;t confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company&#39;s leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the &#34;anti-inflation act&#34; and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I&#39;m going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let&#39;s dive in.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a79a1ea5bc04bd0f7d6b837085e569e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><h3>Strong Financials</h3><p>Tesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b64a3820209ed9456f87830d2189af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Theaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla&#39;s best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57567a6966f9a88dec06edea0df2921f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)</p><p>As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said &#34;competition is coming&#34; for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f129b31bd55450cd9d2b4db301535\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla market share (Electrek)</p><p>Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b8dd476696262c736d8202f0eb711b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)</p><p>A positive for Tesla is it doesn&#39;t have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world&#39;s largest &#34;gigapress&#34;. Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is &#34;pretty easy&#34;, but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as &#34;easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required&#34; according to Musk.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0285620745fdf8528607519819ead673\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Semi(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new &#34;Megachargers&#34; announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the &#34;Megachargers&#34;.</p><p>Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to &#34;outstrip supply&#34;.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e9768e93dfbc30a6ed7f6a616288ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy storage (Q3,22 report)</p><p>Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a &#34;superintelligence&#34; quite easily given the component pieces are all available.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7fe2dfb674cd77a5935cb3ad7b34ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.</p><h3>Advanced Valuation</h3><p>I have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500a6571bf014bc4f705876a2b54d81f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&amp;D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b77d54dee36748f8aba2dbb017bd53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.</p><p>As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2a4393b0790f345f095c860ebcc51f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>Risks-Elon Musk Selling/Twitter</h3><p>A key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla&#39;s factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab90b0248581ffdd6e1053e959dabb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)</p><p>Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter&#39;s debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk&#39;s mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642e9c75c64b767a55648c6514f3739a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)</p><p>Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.</p><h3>Final Thoughts</h3><p>Tesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously &#34;high&#34; valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla&#39;s technology advantages should keep them ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-29 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137209740","content_text":"SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.Tesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla's stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors \"Teslanaires\". However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla's Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn't confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company's leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the \"anti-inflation act\" and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I'm going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let's dive in.Data byYChartsStrong FinancialsTesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.Data by YChartsTheaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla's best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said \"competition is coming\" for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.Tesla market share (Electrek)Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)A positive for Tesla is it doesn't have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world's largest \"gigapress\". Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is \"pretty easy\", but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.Tesla's rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as \"easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required\" according to Musk.Tesla Semi(Tesla)Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new \"Megachargers\" announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the \"Megachargers\".Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to \"outstrip supply\".Energy storage (Q3,22 report)Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a \"superintelligence\" quite easily given the component pieces are all available.Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.Advanced ValuationI have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.Data by YChartsRisks-Elon Musk Selling/TwitterA key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla's factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter's debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk's mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.Final ThoughtsTesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously \"high\" valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla's technology advantages should keep them ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924882966,"gmtCreate":1672221662455,"gmtModify":1676538655046,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924882966","repostId":"1177985721","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177985721","pubTimestamp":1672242021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177985721?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-28 23:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177985721","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Tesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.</li><li>There is a lot of noise surrounding the world&#39;s leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) macro challenges.</li><li>These concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla&#39;s long-term potential - the stock looks undervalued.</li><li>I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.</li></ul><h3>Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD. For reference, this loss of value is worse than what investors needed to suffer with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> (down about 65% YTD), and the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) has only lost about 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fde4b5693a019a70b9ea28b00512c6a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Personally, I am confident to argue that the current sell-off provides investors with an attractive buying opportunity. To be fair, there is a lot of noise surrounding the world&#39;s leading electric car marker, including (1) Elon Musk selling shares, (2) Elon Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) various macroeconomic challenges. But these concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla&#39;s long-term potential - the stock clearly looks undervalued at FWD x26 EV/EBIT.</p><h3>Is It Elon Musk, Or Interest Rates?</h3><p>With some Tesla investors, the narrative is building that Tesla&#39;s sharp sell-off is strongly correlated to Elon Musk&#39;s takeover of Twitter. Ross Gerber for example, a notable Tesla bull, has implied that Elon Musk&#39;s behavior/ actions have erased $600 billion in market capitalization. But Musk quickly defended himself with the argument that the sell-off has been caused by higher interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7c1869f3ca5aa92bb963e223f8f0dbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Let us look these two positions with a little bit more context.</p><h3>Elon Musk Shifting Focus Away From Tesla</h3><p>A key argument why some investors believe that Tesla shares are falling is anchored on the simple observation that Tesla shares have lost approximately 40% since the Twitter deal closed on 27th October, while the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) is down by only 2%.</p><p>Some investors are clearly concerned that with the Twitter acquisition, Elon Musk will lose focus on his role as Tesla&#39;s CEO - now being Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter, The Boring Company and Neuralink.</p><p>Moreover, there has been some evidence that Elon Musk is shifting additional resources away from Tesla, not only his own time and energy. In late October, Musk invited about 50 Tesla engineers to the Twitter headquarters, asking their support in improving various algorithms on the social media platform. However, Musk argued that the commitment was non-material to Tesla&#39;s business operations: (emphasis added)</p><blockquote>This was an after hours — just if you’re interested in evaluating, helping me evaluate Twitter engineering ... that’d be nice. I think it lasted for a few days and it was over.</blockquote><p>In any case, Elon Musk has by now said that he will step down as Twitter&#39;s CEO, as soon as a suitable successor is found.</p><h3>Elon Musk Selling Shares</h3><p>Enormous blocks of share sales is another observation linked to Musk&#39;s acquisition of Twitter. Since the Twitter deal has been announced, Musk has sold nearly $23 billion worth of stock, despite his promise in April that he won&#39;t. Of course, selling $23 billion of equity in a bear market adds strong downward pressure to prices, and the action certainly pressures both investor confidence as well as sentiment.</p><p>Now once again Elon Musk has promised to not sell any shares - until at least 12 months. But will investors trust this promise?</p><blockquote>I won’t sell stock until, I don’t know, probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafter</blockquote><h3>Interest Rates</h3><p>Meanwhile, Elon Musk argued that Tesla &#39;is executing better than ever&#39;, and the reason for the stock&#39;s sell-off is due to higher interest rates. While the interest rate argument might be true to some extent, looking at the basic DCF formula...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a63228358f96949ea5eab01cfd2f807\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>... investors should consider that since the Twitter deal closed, the Fed raised the funds rate by only 50 basis points. However you structure the DCF formula, it is hard to mathematically (and reasonably) prove a $600 billion loss of value due to only 0.5% higher interest rates.</p><p></p><p>Moreover, while Tesla&#39;s share price might indeed be more sensible to higher interest rates than the S&amp;P 500 (Tesla is a long duration growth asset), the performance discrepancy of Tesla and the S&amp;P 500 for the past few months is simply too excessive to be explained by interest rates.</p><h3>Macroeconomic Challenges</h3><p>The real reason why Tesla shares are slipping might simply be the uncertainty and fundamental pressure related to macroeconomic challenges. Elon Musk has already voiced concerns that the economy might fall into a recession in 2023 and Tesla car sales might suffer accordingly.</p><p>I think we are in a recession, and I think 2023 is going to be quite a serious recession ...</p><p>... It’s going to be, in my opinion, comparable to 2009. I don’t know if it’s going to be a little worse or a little better, but I think it’s, in my view, likely to be comparable. That means demand for any kind of optional, discretionary item, especially if it’s a big-ticket item, will be lower.</p><p>Notably, Tesla shares fell as much as 10% after the car maker announced price discounts of $7,500 to US consumers - an announcement that clearly hints on demand concerns. The thesis of demand concerns is supported by Tesla.com website traffic data from Semrush, which highlights that interest for cars could be falling off a cliff.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb5f6a810d444856a2b1e1c7233ba7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Valuation</h3><p>Valuing Tesla, I continue to believe Tesla could sell an estimated 10 million cars per year by 2030 and achieve an average sales price per car of $65,000. Furthermore, I continue to assume:</p><blockquote>a net-profit margin of 15.5%, which is only slightly above Tesla&#39;s 2022 net profit margin and in my opinion a very reasonable assumption if one consider increased economies of scale. (Note that I expect sales volume to almost 10x).</blockquote><blockquote>In addition, I argue that for every dollar that Tesla generates selling cars, the company will be able to sell 20 cents of software solutions and insurance (for reference, Apple generates about 30 cents worth of services for every dollar of hardware sales). For Tesla&#39;s software business, I argue 35% net-profit margin is reasonable -- in line with margins of leading tech/internet companies.</blockquote><p>However, I slightly increase my cost of equity estimate - to 11% as compared to 10% prior. The rationale behind this increase is that Tesla&#39;s value is anchored on the future, and betting on the future remains speculative. It is thus, in my opinion, only reasonable to demand an attractive reward for such a speculation.</p><p>Based on the above variables, I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.</p><h3><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dfe9835e449e0a31e6e5df9e8b1e608\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risks and Headwinds</h3><p>As I see it, there has been no major risk update since I initiated coverage on Tesla stock, except for those discussed in previous sections. Thus, I would like to highlight what I have written before:</p><blockquote>Although Tesla has proven to be more resilient than what investors thought, both in relation to a challenging macro-economy and fading risk-sentiment, I believe the major risk for Tesla stock remains that a worsening macroeconomic backdrop will pressure investors risk-sentiment to such a degree that Tesla stock&#39;s growth multiples compress. Or in other words, investors should acknowledge that much of Tesla&#39;s share price performance remains driven by general sentiment towards stocks (Tesla&#39;s beta vs the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is about 1.7). Accordingly, investors should be prepared to stomach volatility, even though Tesla&#39;s fundamental outlook remains unchanged.</blockquote><blockquote>Personally, I do not believe that increasing competition in the race for electrification will influence the demand for Tesla -- like &#34;other&#34; smart phone makers do not influence the demand for iPhones. The increased competition could, however, exacerbate Tesla&#39;s supply challenges, as more competition chases for a limited supply of raw materials and key manufacturing components.</blockquote><h3>Investor Takeaway</h3><p>I have never thought I would say this, but Tesla stock now appears to be trading in bargain territory. Personally, I would argue that the headwinds presented in the prior sections of this article could be classified as temporary, or noise. Long-term, Tesla remains the leading EV maker, with a strong brand and the world&#39;s most extensive network of EV charging stations.</p><p>Personally, I calculate that TSLA stock should be fairly valued at about $294.19/share (which indicates almost 150% upside). Buy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Shares Dropping Like A Stone - Now A Bargain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-28 23:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566641-tesla-shares-dropping-now-bargain-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177985721","content_text":"SummaryTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD.There is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car maker, including (1) Musk selling shares, (2) Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) macro challenges.These concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla's long-term potential - the stock looks undervalued.I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.ThesisTesla stock is dropping like a stone and now down by approximately 70% YTD. For reference, this loss of value is worse than what investors needed to suffer with Meta Platforms (down about 65% YTD), and the S&P 500 (SPY) has only lost about 20%.Personally, I am confident to argue that the current sell-off provides investors with an attractive buying opportunity. To be fair, there is a lot of noise surrounding the world's leading electric car marker, including (1) Elon Musk selling shares, (2) Elon Musk being CEO of Twitter, and (3) various macroeconomic challenges. But these concerns should prove to be temporary. And from a fundamental perspective - in relation to Tesla's long-term potential - the stock clearly looks undervalued at FWD x26 EV/EBIT.Is It Elon Musk, Or Interest Rates?With some Tesla investors, the narrative is building that Tesla's sharp sell-off is strongly correlated to Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter. Ross Gerber for example, a notable Tesla bull, has implied that Elon Musk's behavior/ actions have erased $600 billion in market capitalization. But Musk quickly defended himself with the argument that the sell-off has been caused by higher interest rates.Let us look these two positions with a little bit more context.Elon Musk Shifting Focus Away From TeslaA key argument why some investors believe that Tesla shares are falling is anchored on the simple observation that Tesla shares have lost approximately 40% since the Twitter deal closed on 27th October, while the S&P 500 (SPY) is down by only 2%.Some investors are clearly concerned that with the Twitter acquisition, Elon Musk will lose focus on his role as Tesla's CEO - now being Chief Executive Officer of Tesla, SpaceX, Twitter, The Boring Company and Neuralink.Moreover, there has been some evidence that Elon Musk is shifting additional resources away from Tesla, not only his own time and energy. In late October, Musk invited about 50 Tesla engineers to the Twitter headquarters, asking their support in improving various algorithms on the social media platform. However, Musk argued that the commitment was non-material to Tesla's business operations: (emphasis added)This was an after hours — just if you’re interested in evaluating, helping me evaluate Twitter engineering ... that’d be nice. I think it lasted for a few days and it was over.In any case, Elon Musk has by now said that he will step down as Twitter's CEO, as soon as a suitable successor is found.Elon Musk Selling SharesEnormous blocks of share sales is another observation linked to Musk's acquisition of Twitter. Since the Twitter deal has been announced, Musk has sold nearly $23 billion worth of stock, despite his promise in April that he won't. Of course, selling $23 billion of equity in a bear market adds strong downward pressure to prices, and the action certainly pressures both investor confidence as well as sentiment.Now once again Elon Musk has promised to not sell any shares - until at least 12 months. But will investors trust this promise?I won’t sell stock until, I don’t know, probably two years from now. Definitely not next year under any circumstances and probably not the year thereafterInterest RatesMeanwhile, Elon Musk argued that Tesla 'is executing better than ever', and the reason for the stock's sell-off is due to higher interest rates. While the interest rate argument might be true to some extent, looking at the basic DCF formula...... investors should consider that since the Twitter deal closed, the Fed raised the funds rate by only 50 basis points. However you structure the DCF formula, it is hard to mathematically (and reasonably) prove a $600 billion loss of value due to only 0.5% higher interest rates.Moreover, while Tesla's share price might indeed be more sensible to higher interest rates than the S&P 500 (Tesla is a long duration growth asset), the performance discrepancy of Tesla and the S&P 500 for the past few months is simply too excessive to be explained by interest rates.Macroeconomic ChallengesThe real reason why Tesla shares are slipping might simply be the uncertainty and fundamental pressure related to macroeconomic challenges. Elon Musk has already voiced concerns that the economy might fall into a recession in 2023 and Tesla car sales might suffer accordingly.I think we are in a recession, and I think 2023 is going to be quite a serious recession ...... It’s going to be, in my opinion, comparable to 2009. I don’t know if it’s going to be a little worse or a little better, but I think it’s, in my view, likely to be comparable. That means demand for any kind of optional, discretionary item, especially if it’s a big-ticket item, will be lower.Notably, Tesla shares fell as much as 10% after the car maker announced price discounts of $7,500 to US consumers - an announcement that clearly hints on demand concerns. The thesis of demand concerns is supported by Tesla.com website traffic data from Semrush, which highlights that interest for cars could be falling off a cliff.ValuationValuing Tesla, I continue to believe Tesla could sell an estimated 10 million cars per year by 2030 and achieve an average sales price per car of $65,000. Furthermore, I continue to assume:a net-profit margin of 15.5%, which is only slightly above Tesla's 2022 net profit margin and in my opinion a very reasonable assumption if one consider increased economies of scale. (Note that I expect sales volume to almost 10x).In addition, I argue that for every dollar that Tesla generates selling cars, the company will be able to sell 20 cents of software solutions and insurance (for reference, Apple generates about 30 cents worth of services for every dollar of hardware sales). For Tesla's software business, I argue 35% net-profit margin is reasonable -- in line with margins of leading tech/internet companies.However, I slightly increase my cost of equity estimate - to 11% as compared to 10% prior. The rationale behind this increase is that Tesla's value is anchored on the future, and betting on the future remains speculative. It is thus, in my opinion, only reasonable to demand an attractive reward for such a speculation.Based on the above variables, I calculate a fair implied price per share for TSLA equal to $294.19/share.Risks and HeadwindsAs I see it, there has been no major risk update since I initiated coverage on Tesla stock, except for those discussed in previous sections. Thus, I would like to highlight what I have written before:Although Tesla has proven to be more resilient than what investors thought, both in relation to a challenging macro-economy and fading risk-sentiment, I believe the major risk for Tesla stock remains that a worsening macroeconomic backdrop will pressure investors risk-sentiment to such a degree that Tesla stock's growth multiples compress. Or in other words, investors should acknowledge that much of Tesla's share price performance remains driven by general sentiment towards stocks (Tesla's beta vs the S&P 500 (SPX) is about 1.7). Accordingly, investors should be prepared to stomach volatility, even though Tesla's fundamental outlook remains unchanged.Personally, I do not believe that increasing competition in the race for electrification will influence the demand for Tesla -- like \"other\" smart phone makers do not influence the demand for iPhones. The increased competition could, however, exacerbate Tesla's supply challenges, as more competition chases for a limited supply of raw materials and key manufacturing components.Investor TakeawayI have never thought I would say this, but Tesla stock now appears to be trading in bargain territory. Personally, I would argue that the headwinds presented in the prior sections of this article could be classified as temporary, or noise. Long-term, Tesla remains the leading EV maker, with a strong brand and the world's most extensive network of EV charging stations.Personally, I calculate that TSLA stock should be fairly valued at about $294.19/share (which indicates almost 150% upside). Buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924952254,"gmtCreate":1672160585779,"gmtModify":1676538645107,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924952254","repostId":"2294655826","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2294655826","pubTimestamp":1672155571,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2294655826?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-27 23:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Is One Stock I'd Avoid in 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2294655826","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"From leadership to a looming recession, the problems are piling up.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Undoubtedly, electric vehicles (EVs) will become the norm over the next couple of decades, ending more than 100 years of internal combustion engine automobile dominance. Statista estimates that sales will grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 17% through 2027, going from $389 billion in 2022 to $847 billion. This is fertile ground for long-term investors, but not every stock is an excellent pick in 2023. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> looks like one of these.</p><p>Tesla is one of the most successful investments of the last 10 years, returning an eye-popping 5,700%. However, the stock is down more than 67% this year. Unfortunately, the drop may continue due to several headwinds. Let&#39;s look at a few.</p><h2>The Twitter debacle</h2><p>Elon Musk&#39;s purchase of Twitter has been an unwelcome distraction for Tesla investors. The Tesla CEO&#39;s offer was announced on April 14, 2022, and Tesla shares have plunged 60% since. Those who were expecting a renewed focus on Tesla once the transaction was complete have been disappointed. Several high-profile Twitter controversies have followed. Investors may see Musk&#39;s focus on Twitter as bad for Tesla stock at a time when Tesla needs its CEO&#39;s focus more than ever.</p><p>Musk announced he will step down as Twitter CEO once a replacement is found. This is terrific news for Tesla and could provide a short-term bump in the stock price once the new CEO is found. However, the Twitter complication isn&#39;t the only problem for Tesla stock.</p><h2>Competition is coming -- fast</h2><p>Tesla has enjoyed its first-mover advantage in the EV industry for years. In 2021, the company accounted for 14% of all EV vehicle sales globally and more than 70% of the coveted US market. The chart below illustrates the tremendous dominance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a6f1f7c29924a41b2c9ae0412f4999\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Statista.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s U.S. market share has nowhere to go but down, which is the trend -- from nearly 80% in 2020, to 70% in 2021, to 65% as of Q3 2022. Other auto companies are investing heavily to electrify their fleets. For example, <b>Ford Motor Company</b> is spending $22 billion through 2025, and <b>General Motors</b> is spending $35 billion. GM believes it can sell a million EVs by then and seeks to make its entire fleet all-electric.</p><p>This doesn&#39;t mean Tesla can&#39;t compete; far from it. But the competition will be fierce, and the road ahead is getting significantly more difficult.</p><h2>An economic triple-whammy</h2><p>Three major economic obstacles will make 2023 difficult:</p><ul><li>A likely recession</li><li>Rising interest rates</li><li>Cratering consumer confidence</li></ul><p>Electric vehicles, especially high-performance Teslas, don&#39;t come cheap. In fact, they rank just behind luxury cars with an average price of $67,000, as shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/290734397a5578ed683b6b63bd7736fb\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Image source: Statista.</p><p>Yes, consumers have lower ownership costs because they don&#39;t have to purchase gas, but future savings may not be top of mind with a recession likely in 2023. When a recession hits, consumers put off major purchases, which could significantly hurt Tesla&#39;s results. As if to prove the point on lagging demand, Tesla has just introduced a rare $7,500 discount on some vehicles.</p><p>To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve is committed to raising interest rates until inflation falls dramatically. This makes financed vehicles even less affordable to consumers.</p><p>Finally, consumer confidence is toiling near its Great Recession lows, as shown below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7215d7641b3cd0613df33d9dac8b074f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>US Index of Consumer Sentiment data by YCharts</p><p>Consumer sentiment is generally considered a leading indicator of upcoming consumer spending, which is incredibly problematic for high-cost electric vehicles in 2023.</p><p>Despite the stock&#39;s drop, Tesla still has the world&#39;s largest market capitalization of any automotive company. With 2023 bringing a host of hardships to the company, the economy, and the industry, Tesla may be one stock it&#39;s best to hold off investing in.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Is One Stock I'd Avoid in 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Is One Stock I'd Avoid in 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-27 23:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/26/tesla-is-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2023/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Undoubtedly, electric vehicles (EVs) will become the norm over the next couple of decades, ending more than 100 years of internal combustion engine automobile dominance. Statista estimates that sales ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/26/tesla-is-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/26/tesla-is-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2294655826","content_text":"Undoubtedly, electric vehicles (EVs) will become the norm over the next couple of decades, ending more than 100 years of internal combustion engine automobile dominance. Statista estimates that sales will grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 17% through 2027, going from $389 billion in 2022 to $847 billion. This is fertile ground for long-term investors, but not every stock is an excellent pick in 2023. Tesla looks like one of these.Tesla is one of the most successful investments of the last 10 years, returning an eye-popping 5,700%. However, the stock is down more than 67% this year. Unfortunately, the drop may continue due to several headwinds. Let's look at a few.The Twitter debacleElon Musk's purchase of Twitter has been an unwelcome distraction for Tesla investors. The Tesla CEO's offer was announced on April 14, 2022, and Tesla shares have plunged 60% since. Those who were expecting a renewed focus on Tesla once the transaction was complete have been disappointed. Several high-profile Twitter controversies have followed. Investors may see Musk's focus on Twitter as bad for Tesla stock at a time when Tesla needs its CEO's focus more than ever.Musk announced he will step down as Twitter CEO once a replacement is found. This is terrific news for Tesla and could provide a short-term bump in the stock price once the new CEO is found. However, the Twitter complication isn't the only problem for Tesla stock.Competition is coming -- fastTesla has enjoyed its first-mover advantage in the EV industry for years. In 2021, the company accounted for 14% of all EV vehicle sales globally and more than 70% of the coveted US market. The chart below illustrates the tremendous dominance.Image source: Statista.Tesla's U.S. market share has nowhere to go but down, which is the trend -- from nearly 80% in 2020, to 70% in 2021, to 65% as of Q3 2022. Other auto companies are investing heavily to electrify their fleets. For example, Ford Motor Company is spending $22 billion through 2025, and General Motors is spending $35 billion. GM believes it can sell a million EVs by then and seeks to make its entire fleet all-electric.This doesn't mean Tesla can't compete; far from it. But the competition will be fierce, and the road ahead is getting significantly more difficult.An economic triple-whammyThree major economic obstacles will make 2023 difficult:A likely recessionRising interest ratesCratering consumer confidenceElectric vehicles, especially high-performance Teslas, don't come cheap. In fact, they rank just behind luxury cars with an average price of $67,000, as shown below.Image source: Statista.Yes, consumers have lower ownership costs because they don't have to purchase gas, but future savings may not be top of mind with a recession likely in 2023. When a recession hits, consumers put off major purchases, which could significantly hurt Tesla's results. As if to prove the point on lagging demand, Tesla has just introduced a rare $7,500 discount on some vehicles.To make matters worse, the Federal Reserve is committed to raising interest rates until inflation falls dramatically. This makes financed vehicles even less affordable to consumers.Finally, consumer confidence is toiling near its Great Recession lows, as shown below.US Index of Consumer Sentiment data by YChartsConsumer sentiment is generally considered a leading indicator of upcoming consumer spending, which is incredibly problematic for high-cost electric vehicles in 2023.Despite the stock's drop, Tesla still has the world's largest market capitalization of any automotive company. With 2023 bringing a host of hardships to the company, the economy, and the industry, Tesla may be one stock it's best to hold off investing in.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925509530,"gmtCreate":1672053462420,"gmtModify":1676538627473,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925509530","repostId":"2293521334","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2293521334","pubTimestamp":1672066286,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2293521334?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-26 22:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Expects S&P 500 to Finish 2023 at 4,000 After Missing Mark By the Widest Margin Since 2008","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293521334","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Wall Street often gets it wrong when it comes to anticipating where stocks might be trading one-year","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street often gets it wrong when it comes to anticipating where stocks might be trading one-year out. But in 2022, its forecasters were set to miss the mark by the widest margin in nearly 15 years, according to data compiled by FactSet.</p><p>Wall Street equity analysts were on pace to overestimate the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index in 2022 by nearly 40% as of Tuesday, according to the average bottom-up forecast compiled by FactSet’s senior earnings analyst John Butters. That would mark their biggest miss since 2008 when analysts overshot by 92%.</p><p>A year ago, equity analysts were penciling in the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.59%finishing 2022 at 5,264.51, according to FactSet data. That’s turned out to be way off base: the large-cap index was trading just north of 3,800 as of Tuesday’s close.</p><p>This year, however, Wall Street’s top strategists have been more cautious,spending much of the time slashing their year-end stock-market targets as the Federal Reserve kept raising rates to fight stubbornly high inflation and causing volatility across markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, to explode.</p><p>The damage felt across financial markets has the S&amp;P 500 down about 20%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when it plunged nearly 40%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><h2>S&amp;P 500 estimates</h2><p>A recent survey of top Wall Street forecasters by MarketWatch put the average S&amp;P 500 estimate at 4,031 for the end of 2023, an advance of only about 6% from Tuesday’s close of 3,821.62. To get to that average (see chart), MarketWatch collected estimates from 18 investment banks and brokers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d035ea91cb6e4343fdf465ac091a1d23\" tg-width=\"837\" tg-height=\"1048\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A few estimates, including those of top equity and macro strategists at Barclays PLCBCS,+1.30%,Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and UBS Group AG expect the S&amp;P 500 to finish next yearbelow 4,000.</p><p>Forecasts, however, from the group were spread over an unusually wide range, market strategists told MarketWatch.</p><p>On the low end, BNP Paribas’ Greg Boutle expects a continued slide in stocks next year, with the S&amp;P 500 finishing 2023 at 3,400.Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha, who has the highest year-end target of the group, expects the index to finish next year at 4,500.</p><p>Furthermore, a FactSet survey of equity analysts produced a bottom-up forecast for the S&amp;P 500 of 4,500 by the end of 2023. That would represent an advance of roughly 18% based on the index’s closing level on Tuesday.</p><h2>What about a recession?</h2><p>Many macro strategists said in their 2023 outlooks that they expect the U.S. economy to slide into a recession by midyear, further undermining equity valuations as corporate profits slump and unemployment climbs.</p><p>Notably, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius expects economic growth in the U.S. to slow, but avoid a recession.</p><p>One of the main pillars supporting equity valuations has been an expectation that stocks will bottom out in the first half of next year, before rebounding in the latter half of 2023, as inflation recedes and unemployment rises, allowing the Fed to start slashing interest-rates without risking hyperinflation.</p><p>While even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said there are no guarantees about where monetary policy will need to bring inflation down concretely,lingering expectations have been for the Fed eventually to “pivot” away from its aggressive stance on rates at some point next year, which has helped buttress stocks..</p><p>Movements in fed-funds futures, which are used by traders for the purposes of hedging and speculation, appear to confirm this view, according to data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.</p><p>Investors have continued to cling to hopes for a late-year 2023 rate cut from the Fed, futures show, even as the Fed’s latest “dot plot,” released earlier this month, suggest senior central bankers don’t expect to cut rates until 2024.</p><p>Many investors expect stocks to bottom in the first half of 2023 as the Fed’s aggressive interest-rate hikes finally take their toll on the economy.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.’sJPM,+0.47%Marko Kolanovic, who was one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street heading into 2022, holds this view, as he confirmed to MarketWatch via email.</p><p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, one of the few Wall Street equity strategists who anticipated this year’s crash, endorsed a similar view when he described 2023 as a “tale of two halves” in a research note dated Dec. 19. Wilson thinks the S&amp;P 500 will find a bottom in the first quarter of 2023, creating a “terrific buying opportunity.”</p><h2>Bulls and bears: wildly different outlooks</h2><p>A look outside of major investment banks shows bulls and bears with dramatically different visions of how they expect next year to play out.</p><p>Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, sees the S&amp;P 500 advancing to 4,750 next year based on his expectation that inflation will continue to recede. Lee has burnished his reputation as a stock-market bull, standing by his calls for stocks to continue to climb in frequent appearances on business television networks, like CNBC.</p><p>In a recent elaboration of his 2023 outlook, Lee noted that instances where U.S. stocks fall for two consecutive years have been rare since World War II.</p><p>What’s more, double-digit pullbacks, which look likely this year, often have been followed by particularly torrid rebounds, as the historical data show.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has advanced 13.5%, on average, in the years following a pullback, according to Lee’s analysis of historical data going back to 1946.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a3cee89daa72ccc63c2662d3f6c26d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>FUNDSTRAT</span></p><p>On the other hand, stock-market bears like Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, expect the pain in equities to persist next year. In a recent report, Senyek explained why he thinks the U.S. economy will crater next year, while inflation will remain stubbornly persistent, leading to “stagflation.”</p><h2>A 35% pullback?</h2><p>As a result, Senyek expects the S&amp;P 500 to potentially fall by as much as 35% next year. A decline of that magnitude from Tuesday’s close would drive the S&amp;P 500 to around 2,500,a level last touched in the wake of the March 2020 crash, according to FactSet.</p><p>“We believe that the amount of [monetary] tightening that’s already taken place is enough to push in the U.S. economy into a recession, and that U.S. real GDP growth will hit -2% to -3% on a [year-over-year] basis at some point in 2023,” Senyek said, in a note.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has fallen roughly 20% this year through Tuesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 10% and the Nasdaq Composite was off nearly 33%.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Expects S&P 500 to Finish 2023 at 4,000 After Missing Mark By the Widest Margin Since 2008</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Expects S&P 500 to Finish 2023 at 4,000 After Missing Mark By the Widest Margin Since 2008\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-26 22:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-stock-market-forecasts-for-2022-were-off-by-the-widest-margin-since-2008-will-next-year-be-any-different-11671583416?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wall Street often gets it wrong when it comes to anticipating where stocks might be trading one-year out. But in 2022, its forecasters were set to miss the mark by the widest margin in nearly 15 years...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-stock-market-forecasts-for-2022-were-off-by-the-widest-margin-since-2008-will-next-year-be-any-different-11671583416?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-stock-market-forecasts-for-2022-were-off-by-the-widest-margin-since-2008-will-next-year-be-any-different-11671583416?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293521334","content_text":"Wall Street often gets it wrong when it comes to anticipating where stocks might be trading one-year out. But in 2022, its forecasters were set to miss the mark by the widest margin in nearly 15 years, according to data compiled by FactSet.Wall Street equity analysts were on pace to overestimate the performance of the S&P 500 index in 2022 by nearly 40% as of Tuesday, according to the average bottom-up forecast compiled by FactSet’s senior earnings analyst John Butters. That would mark their biggest miss since 2008 when analysts overshot by 92%.A year ago, equity analysts were penciling in the S&P 500SPX,+0.59%finishing 2022 at 5,264.51, according to FactSet data. That’s turned out to be way off base: the large-cap index was trading just north of 3,800 as of Tuesday’s close.This year, however, Wall Street’s top strategists have been more cautious,spending much of the time slashing their year-end stock-market targets as the Federal Reserve kept raising rates to fight stubbornly high inflation and causing volatility across markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, to explode.The damage felt across financial markets has the S&P 500 down about 20%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when it plunged nearly 40%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.S&P 500 estimatesA recent survey of top Wall Street forecasters by MarketWatch put the average S&P 500 estimate at 4,031 for the end of 2023, an advance of only about 6% from Tuesday’s close of 3,821.62. To get to that average (see chart), MarketWatch collected estimates from 18 investment banks and brokers.A few estimates, including those of top equity and macro strategists at Barclays PLCBCS,+1.30%,Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc. and UBS Group AG expect the S&P 500 to finish next yearbelow 4,000.Forecasts, however, from the group were spread over an unusually wide range, market strategists told MarketWatch.On the low end, BNP Paribas’ Greg Boutle expects a continued slide in stocks next year, with the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at 3,400.Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha, who has the highest year-end target of the group, expects the index to finish next year at 4,500.Furthermore, a FactSet survey of equity analysts produced a bottom-up forecast for the S&P 500 of 4,500 by the end of 2023. That would represent an advance of roughly 18% based on the index’s closing level on Tuesday.What about a recession?Many macro strategists said in their 2023 outlooks that they expect the U.S. economy to slide into a recession by midyear, further undermining equity valuations as corporate profits slump and unemployment climbs.Notably, Goldman Sachs’ Chief Economist Jan Hatzius expects economic growth in the U.S. to slow, but avoid a recession.One of the main pillars supporting equity valuations has been an expectation that stocks will bottom out in the first half of next year, before rebounding in the latter half of 2023, as inflation recedes and unemployment rises, allowing the Fed to start slashing interest-rates without risking hyperinflation.While even Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said there are no guarantees about where monetary policy will need to bring inflation down concretely,lingering expectations have been for the Fed eventually to “pivot” away from its aggressive stance on rates at some point next year, which has helped buttress stocks..Movements in fed-funds futures, which are used by traders for the purposes of hedging and speculation, appear to confirm this view, according to data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.Investors have continued to cling to hopes for a late-year 2023 rate cut from the Fed, futures show, even as the Fed’s latest “dot plot,” released earlier this month, suggest senior central bankers don’t expect to cut rates until 2024.Many investors expect stocks to bottom in the first half of 2023 as the Fed’s aggressive interest-rate hikes finally take their toll on the economy.JPMorgan Chase & Co.’sJPM,+0.47%Marko Kolanovic, who was one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street heading into 2022, holds this view, as he confirmed to MarketWatch via email.Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, one of the few Wall Street equity strategists who anticipated this year’s crash, endorsed a similar view when he described 2023 as a “tale of two halves” in a research note dated Dec. 19. Wilson thinks the S&P 500 will find a bottom in the first quarter of 2023, creating a “terrific buying opportunity.”Bulls and bears: wildly different outlooksA look outside of major investment banks shows bulls and bears with dramatically different visions of how they expect next year to play out.Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, sees the S&P 500 advancing to 4,750 next year based on his expectation that inflation will continue to recede. Lee has burnished his reputation as a stock-market bull, standing by his calls for stocks to continue to climb in frequent appearances on business television networks, like CNBC.In a recent elaboration of his 2023 outlook, Lee noted that instances where U.S. stocks fall for two consecutive years have been rare since World War II.What’s more, double-digit pullbacks, which look likely this year, often have been followed by particularly torrid rebounds, as the historical data show.The S&P 500 has advanced 13.5%, on average, in the years following a pullback, according to Lee’s analysis of historical data going back to 1946.FUNDSTRATOn the other hand, stock-market bears like Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, expect the pain in equities to persist next year. In a recent report, Senyek explained why he thinks the U.S. economy will crater next year, while inflation will remain stubbornly persistent, leading to “stagflation.”A 35% pullback?As a result, Senyek expects the S&P 500 to potentially fall by as much as 35% next year. A decline of that magnitude from Tuesday’s close would drive the S&P 500 to around 2,500,a level last touched in the wake of the March 2020 crash, according to FactSet.“We believe that the amount of [monetary] tightening that’s already taken place is enough to push in the U.S. economy into a recession, and that U.S. real GDP growth will hit -2% to -3% on a [year-over-year] basis at some point in 2023,” Senyek said, in a note.The S&P 500 has fallen roughly 20% this year through Tuesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 10% and the Nasdaq Composite was off nearly 33%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925901144,"gmtCreate":1671894424688,"gmtModify":1676538607715,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925901144","repostId":"2293560402","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2293560402","pubTimestamp":1671850980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2293560402?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-24 11:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett Is Raking in $2.8 Billion in Annual Dividend Income From Just 3 Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293560402","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway should generate more than $6 billion in dividend income over the next 12 months. Nearly half of it will come from three stocks.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As much as 2021 might have led you to believe that the stock market only goes up, 2022 has served as an abrupt reminder that this path to prosperity isn&#39;t a straight line. All three major U.S. stock indexes have plunged into a bear market, with growth stocks really taking it on the chin.</p><p>But don&#39;t tell that to <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> CEO Warren Buffett. When the closing bell rang last week, shares of the Oracle of Omaha&#39;s company were outperforming the benchmark <b>S&amp;P 500</b> by 20 percentage points and were higher on the year by 1%.</p><p>One of Buffett&#39;s keys to outperforming in turbulent environments is to lean on the safety of dividend stocks. Companies that pay a regular dividend are almost always profitable and have stood the test of time.</p><p>Over the next 12 months, Buffett&#39;s company is on track to collect more than $6 billion in dividend income. The shocker is that $2.8 billion of this annual dividend income is slated to come from just three stocks.</p><h2>Chevron: $964,107,966 in annual dividend income</h2><p>The leading dividend stock for Berkshire Hathaway is none other than global energy giant <b>Chevron</b>. Chevron is a dividend stock that has increased its base annual payout for 35 consecutive years, and is currently doling out $5.68 a share, which is good enough for a market-topping yield of almost 3.4%. Including the Chevron shares owned by Buffett&#39;s secret portfolio, New England Asset Management, this position is generating more than $964 million in annual dividend income for Berkshire Hathaway.</p><p>Let&#39;s be clear: Buffett and his investment team wouldn&#39;t have plowed into energy stocks in 2022 if they didn&#39;t strongly believe that energy commodity prices would remain above their historic averages for the coming years. Certain global dynamics do support this thesis, although a U.S. recession would likely weigh on near-term oil and gas demand.</p><p>The biggest positive for crude oil and natural gas prices has been the underinvestment in drilling, exploration, and infrastructure by most energy majors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Paring back capital expenditures means it&#39;ll be difficult to quickly increase energy commodity supply anytime soon. When coupled with Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine, which has cast doubt on Europe&#39;s energy supply needs, there&#39;s a real likelihood that crude oil and natural gas prices will stick above their historic norms.</p><p>Buffett&#39;s fascination with Chevron probably also involves its integrated operating model. &#34;Integrated&#34; oil and gas companies operate midstream assets, such as pipelines, and downstream assets, like chemical plants and refineries. These midstream and downstream assets help provide predictable cash flow and can be used to hedge against energy commodity price weakness.</p><p>Big oil is also known for its hefty capital-return programs. In addition to its juicy dividend, Chevron has pledged to repurchase up to $15 billion worth of its common stock this year.</p><h2>Occidental Petroleum: $901,062,858 in annual dividend income</h2><p>Have I mentioned that energy stocks are playing a big role in anchoring Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s portfolio in 2022 and bolstering its dividend income?</p><p>Since the year began, the Oracle of Omaha and his team have purchased more than 194 million shares of <b>Occidental Petroleum</b>. This common stock is providing more than $101 million in annual income. However, Berkshire Hathaway also owns $10 billion worth of Occidental Petroleum preferred stock that doles out an 8% yield ($800 million a year). Altogether, Buffett is collecting north of $901 million in annual dividend income from Occidental.</p><p>As you can probably imagine, the catalysts fueling Occidental Petroleum are really similar to Chevron. Years of underinvestment in drilling and infrastructure (for the energy sector when examined as a whole) combined with Russia&#39;s actions in Ukraine create a scenario where higher energy prices can significantly boost operating cash flow. But there are some differences between the two companies.</p><p>For example, even though Occidental is an integrated operator like Chevron, more of its annual revenue is tied to its higher-margin drilling operations. If crude oil and natural gas remain elevated, Occidental can reap the rewards even more so than Chevron.</p><p>But there&#39;s a flip side to this benefit. Whereas Chevron has what can arguably be described as the best balance sheet among large oil and gas companies, Occidental was sitting on more than $35 billion in net debt less than two years ago. The good news is the company has whittled away $15 billion in net debt and reignited its share repurchase program as oil prices soared. Whether a tidier balance sheet allows for earnings multiple expansion remains to be seen.</p><h2>Bank of America: $908,909,765 in annual dividend income</h2><p>The third high-octane income stock in Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s portfolio is <b>Bank of America</b>. Including shares owned by New England Asset Management, the more than 1.03 billion shares of BofA held by Berkshire will help Buffett and his team rake in close to $909 million in annual dividend income.</p><p>Usually, bank stocks perform poorly during bear markets and struggle when U.S. economic growth slows or shifts into reverse. But this time could really be different. Whereas the Federal Reserve often comes to Wall Street&#39;s rescue by lowering interest rates to spur lending, the nation&#39;s central bank is, instead, raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades to combat historically high inflation. Even if a recession were to occur in the U.S., the benefit of rapidly rising rates on Bank of America&#39;s outstanding variable-rate loans should more than offset loan losses.</p><p>Among money-center banks, Bank of America <i>is</i> the most interest-sensitive. Not only did its net interest income jump 24% to $13.9 billion during the third quarter, but BofA has estimated that a 100-basis-point parallel shift in the interest rate yield curve will produce $4.2 billion in added net interest income over the next 12 months.</p><p>Despite its size, Bank of America is making headway with its digital transformation as well. More than 70% of its 56 million verified digital users are active customers. As a result, 48% of total sales were completed online or via mobile app, and 51 million more transactions were completed via digital peer-to-peer app Zelle (167 million) than traditional check (116 million) in the September-ended quarter. Digital transactions cost banks just a fraction of what in-person interactions run.</p><p>And to keep with the theme of this list, bank stocks like BofA have a storied history of sizable capital-return programs. When the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, Bank of America can often be counted on to return well in excess of $20 billion to its shareholders via share buybacks and dividends.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett Is Raking in $2.8 Billion in Annual Dividend Income From Just 3 Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett Is Raking in $2.8 Billion in Annual Dividend Income From Just 3 Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-24 11:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/23/warren-buffett-28-billion-dividend-income-3-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As much as 2021 might have led you to believe that the stock market only goes up, 2022 has served as an abrupt reminder that this path to prosperity isn't a straight line. All three major U.S. stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/23/warren-buffett-28-billion-dividend-income-3-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OXY":"西方石油","BAC":"美国银行","CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/23/warren-buffett-28-billion-dividend-income-3-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293560402","content_text":"As much as 2021 might have led you to believe that the stock market only goes up, 2022 has served as an abrupt reminder that this path to prosperity isn't a straight line. All three major U.S. stock indexes have plunged into a bear market, with growth stocks really taking it on the chin.But don't tell that to Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. When the closing bell rang last week, shares of the Oracle of Omaha's company were outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 20 percentage points and were higher on the year by 1%.One of Buffett's keys to outperforming in turbulent environments is to lean on the safety of dividend stocks. Companies that pay a regular dividend are almost always profitable and have stood the test of time.Over the next 12 months, Buffett's company is on track to collect more than $6 billion in dividend income. The shocker is that $2.8 billion of this annual dividend income is slated to come from just three stocks.Chevron: $964,107,966 in annual dividend incomeThe leading dividend stock for Berkshire Hathaway is none other than global energy giant Chevron. Chevron is a dividend stock that has increased its base annual payout for 35 consecutive years, and is currently doling out $5.68 a share, which is good enough for a market-topping yield of almost 3.4%. Including the Chevron shares owned by Buffett's secret portfolio, New England Asset Management, this position is generating more than $964 million in annual dividend income for Berkshire Hathaway.Let's be clear: Buffett and his investment team wouldn't have plowed into energy stocks in 2022 if they didn't strongly believe that energy commodity prices would remain above their historic averages for the coming years. Certain global dynamics do support this thesis, although a U.S. recession would likely weigh on near-term oil and gas demand.The biggest positive for crude oil and natural gas prices has been the underinvestment in drilling, exploration, and infrastructure by most energy majors during the COVID-19 pandemic. Paring back capital expenditures means it'll be difficult to quickly increase energy commodity supply anytime soon. When coupled with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has cast doubt on Europe's energy supply needs, there's a real likelihood that crude oil and natural gas prices will stick above their historic norms.Buffett's fascination with Chevron probably also involves its integrated operating model. \"Integrated\" oil and gas companies operate midstream assets, such as pipelines, and downstream assets, like chemical plants and refineries. These midstream and downstream assets help provide predictable cash flow and can be used to hedge against energy commodity price weakness.Big oil is also known for its hefty capital-return programs. In addition to its juicy dividend, Chevron has pledged to repurchase up to $15 billion worth of its common stock this year.Occidental Petroleum: $901,062,858 in annual dividend incomeHave I mentioned that energy stocks are playing a big role in anchoring Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio in 2022 and bolstering its dividend income?Since the year began, the Oracle of Omaha and his team have purchased more than 194 million shares of Occidental Petroleum. This common stock is providing more than $101 million in annual income. However, Berkshire Hathaway also owns $10 billion worth of Occidental Petroleum preferred stock that doles out an 8% yield ($800 million a year). Altogether, Buffett is collecting north of $901 million in annual dividend income from Occidental.As you can probably imagine, the catalysts fueling Occidental Petroleum are really similar to Chevron. Years of underinvestment in drilling and infrastructure (for the energy sector when examined as a whole) combined with Russia's actions in Ukraine create a scenario where higher energy prices can significantly boost operating cash flow. But there are some differences between the two companies.For example, even though Occidental is an integrated operator like Chevron, more of its annual revenue is tied to its higher-margin drilling operations. If crude oil and natural gas remain elevated, Occidental can reap the rewards even more so than Chevron.But there's a flip side to this benefit. Whereas Chevron has what can arguably be described as the best balance sheet among large oil and gas companies, Occidental was sitting on more than $35 billion in net debt less than two years ago. The good news is the company has whittled away $15 billion in net debt and reignited its share repurchase program as oil prices soared. Whether a tidier balance sheet allows for earnings multiple expansion remains to be seen.Bank of America: $908,909,765 in annual dividend incomeThe third high-octane income stock in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio is Bank of America. Including shares owned by New England Asset Management, the more than 1.03 billion shares of BofA held by Berkshire will help Buffett and his team rake in close to $909 million in annual dividend income.Usually, bank stocks perform poorly during bear markets and struggle when U.S. economic growth slows or shifts into reverse. But this time could really be different. Whereas the Federal Reserve often comes to Wall Street's rescue by lowering interest rates to spur lending, the nation's central bank is, instead, raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades to combat historically high inflation. Even if a recession were to occur in the U.S., the benefit of rapidly rising rates on Bank of America's outstanding variable-rate loans should more than offset loan losses.Among money-center banks, Bank of America is the most interest-sensitive. Not only did its net interest income jump 24% to $13.9 billion during the third quarter, but BofA has estimated that a 100-basis-point parallel shift in the interest rate yield curve will produce $4.2 billion in added net interest income over the next 12 months.Despite its size, Bank of America is making headway with its digital transformation as well. More than 70% of its 56 million verified digital users are active customers. As a result, 48% of total sales were completed online or via mobile app, and 51 million more transactions were completed via digital peer-to-peer app Zelle (167 million) than traditional check (116 million) in the September-ended quarter. Digital transactions cost banks just a fraction of what in-person interactions run.And to keep with the theme of this list, bank stocks like BofA have a storied history of sizable capital-return programs. When the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, Bank of America can often be counted on to return well in excess of $20 billion to its shareholders via share buybacks and dividends.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922536355,"gmtCreate":1671798072878,"gmtModify":1676538594979,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922536355","repostId":"2293557321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2293557321","pubTimestamp":1671782584,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2293557321?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-23 16:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Elon Musk, Bring The Pain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2293557321","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDown 51% year to date, Tesla, Inc. may soon get on the radar of some value investors.The twee","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Down 51% year to date, Tesla, Inc. may soon get on the radar of some value investors.</li><li>The tweeting debacle is an excellent catalyst to bring the share price down from the stratosphere.</li><li>Although this was a Covid rocket stock, Tesla is by no means unprofitable and certainly sits in the driver&#39;s seat for all things EV.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c27a0eac9a28bef79be0b62ea6e94f9\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Xiaolu Chu</span></p><h2>Tesla rocket finally coming back down to earth</h2><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a stock that I have been heavily critical of when having discussions about whether the company is a value or not circa 2020 and 2021. The &#34;it&#39;s the future, bro&#34; arguments have fallen time and time again on my deaf ears, far too analytical and critical of numbers and ratios. Some of the projections have been outright ludicrous. Included in these assumptions are Robo-taxis and autonomous driving software.</p><p>However, with the price being cut in half and earnings having quadrupled based nearly 100% on car sales over the Covid era, I&#39;m starting to change my mind about Tesla. I still don&#39;t buy into the revenue and earnings projections outside of the electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) segment, but based on the EV segment alone, I&#39;m beginning to like the numbers.</p><p>I give Tesla credit for growing earnings, both GAAP and non-GAAP, sales and revenues at a faster clip than I could have ever imagined. The margins are also higher than competitors. While the growth has been impressive, the high CAGR in earnings is going from nothing to something without a ton of trailing data. With 2022 basically in the books, we are hitting that 5-year data mark where I would start to be confident in drawing evidence-based conclusions on what they have achieved.</p><p>I consider Tesla a buy, although a cautious one. I would dollar cost average here and speed up the buys under $130.</p><h2>Nice dip</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e30f55c37c8c36334719ebe5c4c3d734\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"184\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>seeking alpha</span></p><p>50+% is a nice dip. Getting cut in half is not usually a situation that lasts long in Tesla shares. Normally, loyalists would step in to give some support and the hedge funds would follow suit.</p><h2>Something seems different this time.</h2><p>One positive is that this drop, taking it down close to pre-Covid prices, happens at a time when Tesla is nearly quadrupling the non-GAAP EBITDA earnings during the trailing 3 years. It is growing from just over $4 Billion to $16.3 on a TTM basis. It&#39;s possible that Elon fans were basing their valuations on how closely the CEO fit their ideal of a leader. Now that he has purchased Twitter and is expressing his ideas on the platform, that sheen is wearing off.</p><p>To say the least, I am thrilled that a non-correlated event is taking the share price of a company like Tesla down a peg. These are the best of situations, as you normally only get value investment opportunities when a directly correlated negative event occurs. For instance, negative oil prices in the case of Exxon (XOM), high-interest rates killing the housing market for Toll Brothers (TOL), or a bad collateralized loan like American Express (AXP) had with the &#34;salad oil&#34; scandal.</p><p>Future assumptions on how sales might go in the face of a recession could also be negative, but that item has yet to manifest.</p><h2>Boots on the ground</h2><p>It&#39;s been my luck that I live near Giga Factory 1, I know several factory employees and have seen the positive effect that Tesla has had on the community of Northern Nevada. The first Giga Factory was set up in conjunction with Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY, OTCPK:PCRFF), sharing the factory right down the middle 50/50. The location is ideal, 3 hours from Fremont, the cars come over the Sierras in a daily stream down I-80 east, offloaded at the factory to be packed with battery cells. While Berlin, Shanghai, and Austin get all the headlines, this is the factory that most likely puts the cells in your car if you drive a Tesla.</p><p>At the time, Tesla was so cool that they brought a plethora of tech-related companies from the Bay Area along with them and had the largest industrial park in the world sold out within a couple of years of their arrival. The cool kid panache did more than drive up the stock price, it attracted other large companies on their coattails like a magnet. Tesla also offered stock options and compensation to every factory worker from the bottom to the top. Many a new home down payment was made by liquidating Tesla stock. Many a backyard was regrettably landscaped with Tesla stock as well. I say regrettably because the share price would often go on to double or triple thereafter, making your $25,000 brick-lay job a potential profit loss of $100 grand or more.</p><p>This is simply one man&#39;s Phil Fisher Scuttlebutt observation. Employees give me feedback that Tesla is running a quality operation. Since the entire operation is built around EVs to start, they don&#39;t need to reconfigure existing internal combustion engine (&#34;ICE&#34;) operations to fit the EV product line. They have streamlined the operation a ton from the inception of Giga 1 to current, automating more and more lines as they go along. I imagine the automation advances help to maintain and increase their margins. The advances from Giga 1 have helped and will help further Giga factories to start from a more advanced position.</p><h2>Twitter time</h2><p>Then came October, and Musk closed on the Twitter deal:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107862bddcfd4ae7525a37da59e825ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>yahoo finance</span></p><p>From late September when the deal was about to close until now, the stock has shed most of that 50% in this short time frame. This is occurring due to a non-Tesla correlated event, other than the assumption that Tesla&#39;s captain is asleep at the wheel. With this, we begin to realize that Tesla on its own merits was overpriced, but Musk added a huge premium. That premium may be gone now, although his intelligence remain as IP with the company. The Tesla price is now beginning to resemble a stock traded on fundamentals rather than blind optimism.</p><h2>Value</h2><p>For growth companies that take a lot of write-offs and depreciation, I like to look under the hood at the non-GAAP earnings equation until a company scales back its growth initiatives. Currently, we have TTM GAAP earnings at a tad over $11 Billion and non-GAAP EBITDA TTM at $16.348 Billion, or roughly 33% higher.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f653e63545af4f23fa18645c3cb4d8ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>yahoo finance</span></p><p>Looking at 2018 on the far right side to TTM on the left, we see a CAGR in EBITDA of 57.366%. That&#39;s a hot number, and one of the primary catalysts in the share price ascension. When I say &#34;hot,&#34;, I also mean non-sustainable in the long run. Beating 25% per year CAGR on any earnings line doesn&#39;t happen for long periods. Thus, taking Peter Lynch&#39;s advice, I like to max out my growth multiple at 25% (25 X) per annum even if a company is exceeding that CAGR in the near term. With 3.099 Billion shares outstanding, that currently gives us an EBITDA per share of $5.25, the number I will use as my multiplicand. To wind up at the crosshairs of a PEG ratio of 1 or less on an EBITDA basis assuming a max growth rate of 25%, I will simply use 25 as my multiplier times $5.25. This spits out a fair value of $131.25. Close, but not quite where I want it yet.</p><h2>The balance sheet</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35f1ce94535378da2e5ea5fecdffc1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>yahoo finance</span></p><p>Tesla is fairly well capitalized with $21.11 Billion in cash and cash equivalents. With only $5.87 Billion in debt, the debt-to-equity ratio is only 14.28%. These numbers are more akin to tech versus vehicle companies where even the most conservative companies like Toyota Motors (TM) are still levered up over 100%. The least conservative, like Ford (F), can be levered up over 300% if you include their capital markets arms that extend syndicated debt to the consumer. Therefore, in this sense, I will certainly agree that the balance sheet of Tesla does resemble a tech company because they have been able to grow through equity raises due to the popularity of the company. Other vehicle manufacturers do not have that luxury. While the auto sector will be sensitive to interest rates for both consumer financing and financing operations, at least Tesla does not have to worry much about their company side of the equation.</p><h2>Balance sheet trends</h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfc7a7ace018dc9badcaf9690b3c5f74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>seeking alpha</span></p><p>A positive trend observation I always like to borrow from Peter Lynch is which direction are current assets and debt going. Ideally, current assets should be on the uptrend and debt, especially long-term debt on the downtrend. In Tesla&#39;s case, current assets have increased from $8.3 Billion 5 years ago to $35.9 Billion today, a CAGR of 34%. That is a positive trend indeed.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c440fb210a511c5fce6260696d814fce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>yahoo finance</span></p><p>We also can observe total debt, long term excluding current debt, down almost 50%. While current debt is up, that is mainly a number that floats upwards with sales volume funding product that comes off the line, centered around accounts payable to suppliers as demand increases. The long-term debt number is certainly the focus and is trending in the right direction as well.</p><h2>Plant growth</h2><p>Another Tesla bull argument is that the massive expansion in Giga factory growth is going to lead to amazing earnings growth potential and car sales volume that will exceed their competition. Truth is, they will certainly be cash incinerators for a good while, and they are needed to simply compete with other manufacturers that already have plants all over the world. Volume should not be the focus, but rather efficiencies and margins.</p><p>Everyone knows the vehicle production/sold comparison between Tesla and the other auto producers, and I believe that this is more a game of catchup rather than racing ahead. If they can produce half as many cars as the top competitors but continue to automate more and more operations, leading to double the margins, that would be a win. With a gross profit margin of 25% and a return on invested capital of 15%, this is another tech-like resemblance that I give Tesla points for. Replicating this all over the world could make Tesla a profit leader even with less sales volume.</p><h2>Industry trends</h2><p>The inflation reduction act passed in August should be a boon for all EV auto makers, with Tesla being a main beneficiary. The $7,500 in tax credits for EV buyers should help maintain at least flat revenue if the economy takes a dive. I see it as a backstop if 2023 turns out to be as rough a year as many economists are making it out to be. Wells Fargo (WFC) expects the year to be a recession, recovery, and then a rebound by the end of the year. A recessionary environment entering 2023 should give us a greater chance to buy Tesla at a discount for possibly the first two quarters of the year. A FED pivot in the summer heading into election season will probably send tech and growth stocks bouncing well off the bottoms.</p><p>Tesla still garners almost 100% of its profits from the sales of vehicles, so I will continue to put Tesla squarely in the vehicle manufacturer segment versus energy storage.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fec1be0b52fd21d61e8cecdc30ab63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>evadoption.com</span></p><p>Tesla is way ahead in the U.S. market for 2022, controlling more than 50% of the EV market. The total representation of vehicle sales in the U.S. is still only 1.13%, therefore, there&#39;s still a lot of room to grow. Best case scenario is Tesla approaches Toyota/Ford levels at 10+% market share. I personally wouldn&#39;t get any more optimistic than that, but with Tesla&#39;s superior margins, that would be enough to satisfy my appetite.</p><h2>Catalysts</h2><p>The most logical catalysts coming to fruition are the Semi-truck deliveries. With the initial orders delivered to Pepsi at the beginning of December, this will be the main item that I have my eye on. With Austin up and running, it will be fascinating to see if the trucks actually catch on and garner demand. The logistics of charging large vehicles with huge battery capacities will be the challenge. The installation of mega chargers is the key to adoption. Which grids can handle them and how many can they get installed along major transport routes before the end of 2023 is the question. All these are items that, if pulled off successfully, should be major catalysts for Tesla.</p><h2>Risks</h2><p>Risks are threefold. The continued disliking of Elon Musk by the media, poor execution in the Semi-truck segment, and a recession that causes sales volume to dip below a point at which tax credits could backstop them. If the recession turns out to be milder than thought and China stays open from Covid lockdowns, sales volume might stay on track to increase. However, in a year running up to an election and the possibility for many divisive tweets, don&#39;t be surprised if Musk is able to create a share discount all by himself even if all other items execute.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>I would never look at a vehicle company on a non-GAAP performance basis, and usually revert to the most conservative metric of all, the Graham Number, to incorporate their book value. Almost all of Tesla&#39;s competitors have been around for decades, and their businesses and earnings growth resemble that. Tesla&#39;s income statement and balance sheet both follow tech-related trends at this point, so I am giving Tesla quite a premium to what I would normally pay for a car company.</p><p>Tesla may end up being more than a car company, and there is evidence that they are trying. I am not, however, going to attempt fortune telling and draw a conclusion that every keynote speech/battery day initiative will come to fruition and base a multiple around revenues or profits that may never exist. I am a conservative value investor, and I do believe my $130 mark for Tesla is still extremely liberal with a premium attached to it. The price is close enough to call it a cautious buy, with more confident bets for Tesla under $130.</p><p><i>This article is written by Brett Ashcroft Green for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Elon Musk, Bring The Pain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Elon Musk, Bring The Pain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-23 16:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565786-tesla-elon-musk-bring-the-pain><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDown 51% year to date, Tesla, Inc. may soon get on the radar of some value investors.The tweeting debacle is an excellent catalyst to bring the share price down from the stratosphere.Although ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565786-tesla-elon-musk-bring-the-pain\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4565786-tesla-elon-musk-bring-the-pain","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2293557321","content_text":"SummaryDown 51% year to date, Tesla, Inc. may soon get on the radar of some value investors.The tweeting debacle is an excellent catalyst to bring the share price down from the stratosphere.Although this was a Covid rocket stock, Tesla is by no means unprofitable and certainly sits in the driver's seat for all things EV.Xiaolu ChuTesla rocket finally coming back down to earthTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a stock that I have been heavily critical of when having discussions about whether the company is a value or not circa 2020 and 2021. The \"it's the future, bro\" arguments have fallen time and time again on my deaf ears, far too analytical and critical of numbers and ratios. Some of the projections have been outright ludicrous. Included in these assumptions are Robo-taxis and autonomous driving software.However, with the price being cut in half and earnings having quadrupled based nearly 100% on car sales over the Covid era, I'm starting to change my mind about Tesla. I still don't buy into the revenue and earnings projections outside of the electric vehicle (\"EV\") segment, but based on the EV segment alone, I'm beginning to like the numbers.I give Tesla credit for growing earnings, both GAAP and non-GAAP, sales and revenues at a faster clip than I could have ever imagined. The margins are also higher than competitors. While the growth has been impressive, the high CAGR in earnings is going from nothing to something without a ton of trailing data. With 2022 basically in the books, we are hitting that 5-year data mark where I would start to be confident in drawing evidence-based conclusions on what they have achieved.I consider Tesla a buy, although a cautious one. I would dollar cost average here and speed up the buys under $130.Nice dipseeking alpha50+% is a nice dip. Getting cut in half is not usually a situation that lasts long in Tesla shares. Normally, loyalists would step in to give some support and the hedge funds would follow suit.Something seems different this time.One positive is that this drop, taking it down close to pre-Covid prices, happens at a time when Tesla is nearly quadrupling the non-GAAP EBITDA earnings during the trailing 3 years. It is growing from just over $4 Billion to $16.3 on a TTM basis. It's possible that Elon fans were basing their valuations on how closely the CEO fit their ideal of a leader. Now that he has purchased Twitter and is expressing his ideas on the platform, that sheen is wearing off.To say the least, I am thrilled that a non-correlated event is taking the share price of a company like Tesla down a peg. These are the best of situations, as you normally only get value investment opportunities when a directly correlated negative event occurs. For instance, negative oil prices in the case of Exxon (XOM), high-interest rates killing the housing market for Toll Brothers (TOL), or a bad collateralized loan like American Express (AXP) had with the \"salad oil\" scandal.Future assumptions on how sales might go in the face of a recession could also be negative, but that item has yet to manifest.Boots on the groundIt's been my luck that I live near Giga Factory 1, I know several factory employees and have seen the positive effect that Tesla has had on the community of Northern Nevada. The first Giga Factory was set up in conjunction with Panasonic (OTCPK:PCRFY, OTCPK:PCRFF), sharing the factory right down the middle 50/50. The location is ideal, 3 hours from Fremont, the cars come over the Sierras in a daily stream down I-80 east, offloaded at the factory to be packed with battery cells. While Berlin, Shanghai, and Austin get all the headlines, this is the factory that most likely puts the cells in your car if you drive a Tesla.At the time, Tesla was so cool that they brought a plethora of tech-related companies from the Bay Area along with them and had the largest industrial park in the world sold out within a couple of years of their arrival. The cool kid panache did more than drive up the stock price, it attracted other large companies on their coattails like a magnet. Tesla also offered stock options and compensation to every factory worker from the bottom to the top. Many a new home down payment was made by liquidating Tesla stock. Many a backyard was regrettably landscaped with Tesla stock as well. I say regrettably because the share price would often go on to double or triple thereafter, making your $25,000 brick-lay job a potential profit loss of $100 grand or more.This is simply one man's Phil Fisher Scuttlebutt observation. Employees give me feedback that Tesla is running a quality operation. Since the entire operation is built around EVs to start, they don't need to reconfigure existing internal combustion engine (\"ICE\") operations to fit the EV product line. They have streamlined the operation a ton from the inception of Giga 1 to current, automating more and more lines as they go along. I imagine the automation advances help to maintain and increase their margins. The advances from Giga 1 have helped and will help further Giga factories to start from a more advanced position.Twitter timeThen came October, and Musk closed on the Twitter deal:yahoo financeFrom late September when the deal was about to close until now, the stock has shed most of that 50% in this short time frame. This is occurring due to a non-Tesla correlated event, other than the assumption that Tesla's captain is asleep at the wheel. With this, we begin to realize that Tesla on its own merits was overpriced, but Musk added a huge premium. That premium may be gone now, although his intelligence remain as IP with the company. The Tesla price is now beginning to resemble a stock traded on fundamentals rather than blind optimism.ValueFor growth companies that take a lot of write-offs and depreciation, I like to look under the hood at the non-GAAP earnings equation until a company scales back its growth initiatives. Currently, we have TTM GAAP earnings at a tad over $11 Billion and non-GAAP EBITDA TTM at $16.348 Billion, or roughly 33% higher.yahoo financeLooking at 2018 on the far right side to TTM on the left, we see a CAGR in EBITDA of 57.366%. That's a hot number, and one of the primary catalysts in the share price ascension. When I say \"hot,\", I also mean non-sustainable in the long run. Beating 25% per year CAGR on any earnings line doesn't happen for long periods. Thus, taking Peter Lynch's advice, I like to max out my growth multiple at 25% (25 X) per annum even if a company is exceeding that CAGR in the near term. With 3.099 Billion shares outstanding, that currently gives us an EBITDA per share of $5.25, the number I will use as my multiplicand. To wind up at the crosshairs of a PEG ratio of 1 or less on an EBITDA basis assuming a max growth rate of 25%, I will simply use 25 as my multiplier times $5.25. This spits out a fair value of $131.25. Close, but not quite where I want it yet.The balance sheetyahoo financeTesla is fairly well capitalized with $21.11 Billion in cash and cash equivalents. With only $5.87 Billion in debt, the debt-to-equity ratio is only 14.28%. These numbers are more akin to tech versus vehicle companies where even the most conservative companies like Toyota Motors (TM) are still levered up over 100%. The least conservative, like Ford (F), can be levered up over 300% if you include their capital markets arms that extend syndicated debt to the consumer. Therefore, in this sense, I will certainly agree that the balance sheet of Tesla does resemble a tech company because they have been able to grow through equity raises due to the popularity of the company. Other vehicle manufacturers do not have that luxury. While the auto sector will be sensitive to interest rates for both consumer financing and financing operations, at least Tesla does not have to worry much about their company side of the equation.Balance sheet trendsseeking alphaA positive trend observation I always like to borrow from Peter Lynch is which direction are current assets and debt going. Ideally, current assets should be on the uptrend and debt, especially long-term debt on the downtrend. In Tesla's case, current assets have increased from $8.3 Billion 5 years ago to $35.9 Billion today, a CAGR of 34%. That is a positive trend indeed.yahoo financeWe also can observe total debt, long term excluding current debt, down almost 50%. While current debt is up, that is mainly a number that floats upwards with sales volume funding product that comes off the line, centered around accounts payable to suppliers as demand increases. The long-term debt number is certainly the focus and is trending in the right direction as well.Plant growthAnother Tesla bull argument is that the massive expansion in Giga factory growth is going to lead to amazing earnings growth potential and car sales volume that will exceed their competition. Truth is, they will certainly be cash incinerators for a good while, and they are needed to simply compete with other manufacturers that already have plants all over the world. Volume should not be the focus, but rather efficiencies and margins.Everyone knows the vehicle production/sold comparison between Tesla and the other auto producers, and I believe that this is more a game of catchup rather than racing ahead. If they can produce half as many cars as the top competitors but continue to automate more and more operations, leading to double the margins, that would be a win. With a gross profit margin of 25% and a return on invested capital of 15%, this is another tech-like resemblance that I give Tesla points for. Replicating this all over the world could make Tesla a profit leader even with less sales volume.Industry trendsThe inflation reduction act passed in August should be a boon for all EV auto makers, with Tesla being a main beneficiary. The $7,500 in tax credits for EV buyers should help maintain at least flat revenue if the economy takes a dive. I see it as a backstop if 2023 turns out to be as rough a year as many economists are making it out to be. Wells Fargo (WFC) expects the year to be a recession, recovery, and then a rebound by the end of the year. A recessionary environment entering 2023 should give us a greater chance to buy Tesla at a discount for possibly the first two quarters of the year. A FED pivot in the summer heading into election season will probably send tech and growth stocks bouncing well off the bottoms.Tesla still garners almost 100% of its profits from the sales of vehicles, so I will continue to put Tesla squarely in the vehicle manufacturer segment versus energy storage.evadoption.comTesla is way ahead in the U.S. market for 2022, controlling more than 50% of the EV market. The total representation of vehicle sales in the U.S. is still only 1.13%, therefore, there's still a lot of room to grow. Best case scenario is Tesla approaches Toyota/Ford levels at 10+% market share. I personally wouldn't get any more optimistic than that, but with Tesla's superior margins, that would be enough to satisfy my appetite.CatalystsThe most logical catalysts coming to fruition are the Semi-truck deliveries. With the initial orders delivered to Pepsi at the beginning of December, this will be the main item that I have my eye on. With Austin up and running, it will be fascinating to see if the trucks actually catch on and garner demand. The logistics of charging large vehicles with huge battery capacities will be the challenge. The installation of mega chargers is the key to adoption. Which grids can handle them and how many can they get installed along major transport routes before the end of 2023 is the question. All these are items that, if pulled off successfully, should be major catalysts for Tesla.RisksRisks are threefold. The continued disliking of Elon Musk by the media, poor execution in the Semi-truck segment, and a recession that causes sales volume to dip below a point at which tax credits could backstop them. If the recession turns out to be milder than thought and China stays open from Covid lockdowns, sales volume might stay on track to increase. However, in a year running up to an election and the possibility for many divisive tweets, don't be surprised if Musk is able to create a share discount all by himself even if all other items execute.ConclusionI would never look at a vehicle company on a non-GAAP performance basis, and usually revert to the most conservative metric of all, the Graham Number, to incorporate their book value. Almost all of Tesla's competitors have been around for decades, and their businesses and earnings growth resemble that. Tesla's income statement and balance sheet both follow tech-related trends at this point, so I am giving Tesla quite a premium to what I would normally pay for a car company.Tesla may end up being more than a car company, and there is evidence that they are trying. I am not, however, going to attempt fortune telling and draw a conclusion that every keynote speech/battery day initiative will come to fruition and base a multiple around revenues or profits that may never exist. I am a conservative value investor, and I do believe my $130 mark for Tesla is still extremely liberal with a premium attached to it. The price is close enough to call it a cautious buy, with more confident bets for Tesla under $130.This article is written by Brett Ashcroft Green for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":40,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9922323297,"gmtCreate":1671697038519,"gmtModify":1676538577897,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9922323297","repostId":"2292733669","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9926923031,"gmtCreate":1671451227323,"gmtModify":1676538538280,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9926923031","repostId":"1189781070","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189781070","pubTimestamp":1671444567,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189781070?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-19 18:09","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Shares Begin Week on a High, STI Rises 0.5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189781070","media":"The Business Times","summary":"LOCAL stocks began the week on a slightly more upbeat note, as investors hunted for opportunities in","content":"<div>\n<p>LOCAL stocks began the week on a slightly more upbeat note, as investors hunted for opportunities in the market despite the usual threats of inflation, interest rates and a looming recession.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapore-shares-begin-week-high-sti-rises-05\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1607307803821","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Shares Begin Week on a High, STI Rises 0.5%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Shares Begin Week on a High, STI Rises 0.5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-19 18:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapore-shares-begin-week-high-sti-rises-05><strong>The Business Times</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>LOCAL stocks began the week on a slightly more upbeat note, as investors hunted for opportunities in the market despite the usual threats of inflation, interest rates and a looming recession.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapore-shares-begin-week-high-sti-rises-05\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/singapore-shares-begin-week-high-sti-rises-05","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189781070","content_text":"LOCAL stocks began the week on a slightly more upbeat note, as investors hunted for opportunities in the market despite the usual threats of inflation, interest rates and a looming recession.The Straits Times Index (STI) advanced 0.5 per cent or 15.8 points to finish Monday (Dec 19) at 3,256.61. Daily turnover came in at some 860.1 million securities worth a collective S$786.4 million, with decliners narrowly beating out advancers 271 to 258.Across the region, indices ended the trading day in the red, as investors took a cautious approach. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.1 per cent; the Hang Seng shed 0.5 per cent, and the Kospi lost 0.3 per cent. Bursa was down by a marginal 0.1 per cent, while the ASX 200 closed 0.2 per cent lower.Markets watchers reckon that investors may have to adopt a different strategy in the weeks to come.Saxo’s strategy team said in a note that 2022 has been a year in which there was “nowhere for the passive investor to run and hide”.“As we wind down 2022, note that new themes can quickly develop in 2023 as many have closed their books on taking risk, as liquidity thins out for the holiday time frame and may be set to put on significant risk on the rollover into the new year,” the team added.Jardine Cycle and Carriage : C07 +1.46%was the top gainer for the day by value, rising 1.5 per cent or S$0.41 to S$28.48.Two members of the banking trio were also among the top gainers –DBS : D05 +0.8%rose 0.8 per cent or S$0.27 to S$34.11, andUOB : U11 +0.78%added 0.8 per cent or S$0.24 to S$30.96.OCBC : O39 +0.16%was up by a more muted 0.2 per cent or S$0.02 to S$12.21.One notable decliner wasMemiontec Holdings : TWL -17.54%, which collapsed 17.5 per cent or S$0.05 to S$0.235. The company’s chief executive had said in November that the group was eyeing a market capitalisation of S$500 million by 2026, and that it was also exploring various fundraising opportunities using bonds, convertibles or share placements.The Place Holdings : E27 -8%was the most actively traded stock for the day, with some 48.6 million shares changing hands. The penny stock lost 8 per cent or S$0.002 to finish at S$0.023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":35,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9928649924,"gmtCreate":1671274435269,"gmtModify":1676538518550,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9928649924","repostId":"2291029816","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291029816","pubTimestamp":1671255896,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2291029816?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-17 13:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Phenomenal Stocks in Warren Buffett's Secret Portfolio That Are Screaming Buys in 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291029816","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Oracle of Omaha's $5.9 billion hidden portfolio is home to five amazing companies that are ripe for the picking.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Since becoming CEO of <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (BRK.A -2.26%) (BRK.B -2.39%) in 1965, Warren Buffett has put on a clinic for Wall Street. Despite navigating numerous stock market corrections, crashes, and bear markets, the Oracle of Omaha has led his company&#39;s Class A shares (BRK.A) to a cumulative return of more than 3,600,000% through the end of 2021.</p><p>Riding Warren Buffett&#39;s coattails has been highly profitable for decades, and is relatively easy to do thanks to the required 13F filings from Berkshire Hathaway each quarter. But these 13F filings fail to tell the complete story.</p><p>In 1998, Berkshire Hathaway acquired reinsurance company General Re for $22 billion. However, General Re also owned a specialty investment company, New England Asset Management (NEAM). When Berkshire Hathaway bought General Re, it became the owner of NEAM -- and thus was born Warren Buffett&#39;s &#34;secret portfolio.&#34;</p><p>Today, New England Asset Management has $5.9 billion in assets under management and has stakes in 184 separate securities. We know this because it&#39;s required to file a quarterly 13F just like its parent, Berkshire Hathaway. Among these 184 positions in Warren Buffett&#39;s secret portfolio, there are five phenomenal stocks that stand out as screaming buys in 2023.</p><h2>Johnson &amp; Johnson</h2><p>Considering that interest rates are soaring and the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2023 is growing, time-tested, defensive companies with a long history of competitive advantages are smart buys for the new year. That&#39;s what makes healthcare stock <b>Johnson &amp; Johnson</b> (JNJ -1.26%) a screaming buy in 2023.</p><p>The great thing about healthcare stocks is that demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services remains consistent no matter how well or poorly the U.S. economy fares. This operating consistency is what helped J&amp;J deliver 35 consecutive years of adjusted operational earnings growth leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Another reason for Johnson &amp; Johnson&#39;s success is its well-diversified operating model. On one hand, pharmaceuticals provide the juicy margins that fuel the company&#39;s growth. On the other hand, brand-name drugs have a finite period of sales exclusivity. That&#39;s where the company&#39;s leading medical device segment comes into play. As the population ages, demand and pricing power associated with medical devices should surge.</p><p>If you need one more reason to trust in Johnson &amp; Johnson, consider that it&#39;s one of just two publicly traded companies with the highly coveted AAA credit rating from Standard &amp; Poor&#39;s, a division of <b>S&amp;P Global</b>.</p><h2>Visa</h2><p>Payment processor <b>Visa</b> (V -2.54%) is a second stellar stock in Warren Buffett&#39;s secret portfolio that&#39;s a surefire buy in 2023.</p><p>Even if a recession were to materialize in the new year and hurt cyclical stocks like Visa, it&#39;s important to understand that Visa has time on its side. Historically, recessions don&#39;t last very long. By comparison, periods of economic expansion are measured in years. Buying and patiently holding Visa allows investors to take advantage of the natural expansion of U.S. and global spending over time.</p><p>It also doesn&#39;t hurt that Visa strictly sticks to payment processing and has avoided dipping its toes into the lending pool. Although it could easily generate interest income and added fees as a lender, doing so would expose it to loan losses during inevitable recessions. Not having to set aside capital to cover potential losses is what allows Visa to bounce back from economic downturns faster than its peers.</p><p>Don&#39;t overlook Visa&#39;s international opportunity, either. Since most global transactions are still being conducted in cash, there&#39;s ample opportunity to expand its payment structure into emerging markets for years (or likely decades) to come.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1aca6003962c19490e94b36badd6d8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Walt Disney.</p><h2>Walt Disney</h2><p>The third phenomenal stock in Warren Buffett&#39;s secret portfolio that makes for a smart buy in 2023 is media behemoth <b>Walt Disney</b> (DIS -3.89%). Though the company has been clobbered by COVID-19 pandemic-related issues and large operating losses tied to its streaming operations, the sustainable competitive edges Disney brings to the table can&#39;t be ignored.</p><p>What&#39;s really impressive about Walt Disney is the way it&#39;s able to connect with consumers of all ages. Few consumer-oriented businesses can engage with users as easily as Disney, which is what affords the company superior pricing power. Since 1955, the price of admission to Disneyland in Southern California has soared more than 10,000%, or 10 times the prevailing rate of inflation during the same period.</p><p>But it&#39;s the company&#39;s streaming operations that are getting most of the attention of late. In less than three years following its launch, Disney+ has amassed 164.2 million subscribers, which demonstrates how much of a lure Disney&#39;s characters and stories are to viewers. As cord-cutting continues, the company is perfectly positioned to secure additional subs and make a push to its first quarter of profitability in fiscal 2024.</p><p>And don&#39;t forget about Bob Iger, who reclaimed the CEO job last month. Iger oversaw a number of highly profitable acquisitions for the &#34;House of Mouse&#34; and spearheaded Disney&#39;s growth for decades. Expect more of the same as long as he has the reins.</p><h2>Bank of America</h2><p>Money-center giant <b>Bank of America</b> (BAC -1.58%) is the fourth amazing company in Warren Buffett&#39;s secret portfolio that&#39;s begging to be bought in 2023. Even with many of the same headwinds as Visa, three clearly defined catalysts make it a no-brainer buy.</p><p>To begin with, BofA has been benefiting from the Federal Reserve&#39;s aggressive shift in monetary policy. Bank stocks with outstanding variable-rate loans generate more in net interest income when interest rates rise. Bank of America tallied $13.9 billion in net interest income in the September-ended quarter, which was $2.7 billion higher than the prior-year period.  With the central bank not done increasing rates, BofA can expect more of this net interest to flow directly to its bottom line.</p><p>As I&#39;ve previously pointed out, Bank of America&#39;s digitization efforts are paying off. All told, 43 million people are now active digital customers, with 48% of total sales occurring online or via mobile app in the third quarter.  As people shift online for their banking needs, BofA has the opportunity to consolidate some of its physical branches in order to minimize noninterest expenses.</p><p>The third catalyst for Bank of America is its capital-return program. Bank stocks are often known for their juicy dividends and share buyback programs. During a good year, it&#39;s not out of the question for BofA to return in excess of $20 billion to its shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.</p><h2>PayPal Holdings</h2><p>The fifth phenomenal stock in Warren Buffett&#39;s secret portfolio that&#39;s a screaming buy in 2023 is fintech stock <b>PayPal Holdings</b> (PYPL -3.94%).</p><p>Despite inflation attacking the pocketbooks of low-earning workers, PayPal&#39;s digital payment platforms have demonstrated incredible resilience. Excluding currency changes, total payment volume across all of its platforms has climbed by a low double-digit percentage in 2022. The ability to sustain strong growth in such a challenging economic environment shows how powerful digital payments are as a long-term growth trend.</p><p>Equally important is PayPal&#39;s innovation. Last year, the company acquired Paidy, a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service in Japan. Then in June 2022, it introduced &#34;Pay Monthly,&#34; which further expanded its BNPL offerings in the United States.  Even though CEO Dan Schulman is aiming to cut $1.3 billion from his company&#39;s operating expenses in 2023, PayPal isn&#39;t skimping on innovation.</p><p>But as a shareholder of PayPal, the most reassuring data point is the increasing engagement of active accounts. Following a temporary engagement slowdown caused by the pandemic, the average active PayPal account completed 50.1 transactions over the trailing-12-month (TTM) period, ended Sept. 30, 2022. That&#39;s up from just 40.1 over the TTM at the end of 2020. This is phenomenal growth for a fee-driven platform.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Phenomenal Stocks in Warren Buffett's Secret Portfolio That Are Screaming Buys in 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Phenomenal Stocks in Warren Buffett's Secret Portfolio That Are Screaming Buys in 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-17 13:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/16/5-stocks-warren-buffett-secret-portfolio-buy-2023/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since becoming CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -2.26%) (BRK.B -2.39%) in 1965, Warren Buffett has put on a clinic for Wall Street. Despite navigating numerous stock market corrections, crashes, and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/16/5-stocks-warren-buffett-secret-portfolio-buy-2023/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","DIS":"迪士尼","V":"Visa","BAC":"美国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/16/5-stocks-warren-buffett-secret-portfolio-buy-2023/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291029816","content_text":"Since becoming CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -2.26%) (BRK.B -2.39%) in 1965, Warren Buffett has put on a clinic for Wall Street. Despite navigating numerous stock market corrections, crashes, and bear markets, the Oracle of Omaha has led his company's Class A shares (BRK.A) to a cumulative return of more than 3,600,000% through the end of 2021.Riding Warren Buffett's coattails has been highly profitable for decades, and is relatively easy to do thanks to the required 13F filings from Berkshire Hathaway each quarter. But these 13F filings fail to tell the complete story.In 1998, Berkshire Hathaway acquired reinsurance company General Re for $22 billion. However, General Re also owned a specialty investment company, New England Asset Management (NEAM). When Berkshire Hathaway bought General Re, it became the owner of NEAM -- and thus was born Warren Buffett's \"secret portfolio.\"Today, New England Asset Management has $5.9 billion in assets under management and has stakes in 184 separate securities. We know this because it's required to file a quarterly 13F just like its parent, Berkshire Hathaway. Among these 184 positions in Warren Buffett's secret portfolio, there are five phenomenal stocks that stand out as screaming buys in 2023.Johnson & JohnsonConsidering that interest rates are soaring and the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2023 is growing, time-tested, defensive companies with a long history of competitive advantages are smart buys for the new year. That's what makes healthcare stock Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -1.26%) a screaming buy in 2023.The great thing about healthcare stocks is that demand for prescription drugs, medical devices, and healthcare services remains consistent no matter how well or poorly the U.S. economy fares. This operating consistency is what helped J&J deliver 35 consecutive years of adjusted operational earnings growth leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic.Another reason for Johnson & Johnson's success is its well-diversified operating model. On one hand, pharmaceuticals provide the juicy margins that fuel the company's growth. On the other hand, brand-name drugs have a finite period of sales exclusivity. That's where the company's leading medical device segment comes into play. As the population ages, demand and pricing power associated with medical devices should surge.If you need one more reason to trust in Johnson & Johnson, consider that it's one of just two publicly traded companies with the highly coveted AAA credit rating from Standard & Poor's, a division of S&P Global.VisaPayment processor Visa (V -2.54%) is a second stellar stock in Warren Buffett's secret portfolio that's a surefire buy in 2023.Even if a recession were to materialize in the new year and hurt cyclical stocks like Visa, it's important to understand that Visa has time on its side. Historically, recessions don't last very long. By comparison, periods of economic expansion are measured in years. Buying and patiently holding Visa allows investors to take advantage of the natural expansion of U.S. and global spending over time.It also doesn't hurt that Visa strictly sticks to payment processing and has avoided dipping its toes into the lending pool. Although it could easily generate interest income and added fees as a lender, doing so would expose it to loan losses during inevitable recessions. Not having to set aside capital to cover potential losses is what allows Visa to bounce back from economic downturns faster than its peers.Don't overlook Visa's international opportunity, either. Since most global transactions are still being conducted in cash, there's ample opportunity to expand its payment structure into emerging markets for years (or likely decades) to come.Image source: Walt Disney.Walt DisneyThe third phenomenal stock in Warren Buffett's secret portfolio that makes for a smart buy in 2023 is media behemoth Walt Disney (DIS -3.89%). Though the company has been clobbered by COVID-19 pandemic-related issues and large operating losses tied to its streaming operations, the sustainable competitive edges Disney brings to the table can't be ignored.What's really impressive about Walt Disney is the way it's able to connect with consumers of all ages. Few consumer-oriented businesses can engage with users as easily as Disney, which is what affords the company superior pricing power. Since 1955, the price of admission to Disneyland in Southern California has soared more than 10,000%, or 10 times the prevailing rate of inflation during the same period.But it's the company's streaming operations that are getting most of the attention of late. In less than three years following its launch, Disney+ has amassed 164.2 million subscribers, which demonstrates how much of a lure Disney's characters and stories are to viewers. As cord-cutting continues, the company is perfectly positioned to secure additional subs and make a push to its first quarter of profitability in fiscal 2024.And don't forget about Bob Iger, who reclaimed the CEO job last month. Iger oversaw a number of highly profitable acquisitions for the \"House of Mouse\" and spearheaded Disney's growth for decades. Expect more of the same as long as he has the reins.Bank of AmericaMoney-center giant Bank of America (BAC -1.58%) is the fourth amazing company in Warren Buffett's secret portfolio that's begging to be bought in 2023. Even with many of the same headwinds as Visa, three clearly defined catalysts make it a no-brainer buy.To begin with, BofA has been benefiting from the Federal Reserve's aggressive shift in monetary policy. Bank stocks with outstanding variable-rate loans generate more in net interest income when interest rates rise. Bank of America tallied $13.9 billion in net interest income in the September-ended quarter, which was $2.7 billion higher than the prior-year period.  With the central bank not done increasing rates, BofA can expect more of this net interest to flow directly to its bottom line.As I've previously pointed out, Bank of America's digitization efforts are paying off. All told, 43 million people are now active digital customers, with 48% of total sales occurring online or via mobile app in the third quarter.  As people shift online for their banking needs, BofA has the opportunity to consolidate some of its physical branches in order to minimize noninterest expenses.The third catalyst for Bank of America is its capital-return program. Bank stocks are often known for their juicy dividends and share buyback programs. During a good year, it's not out of the question for BofA to return in excess of $20 billion to its shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.PayPal HoldingsThe fifth phenomenal stock in Warren Buffett's secret portfolio that's a screaming buy in 2023 is fintech stock PayPal Holdings (PYPL -3.94%).Despite inflation attacking the pocketbooks of low-earning workers, PayPal's digital payment platforms have demonstrated incredible resilience. Excluding currency changes, total payment volume across all of its platforms has climbed by a low double-digit percentage in 2022. The ability to sustain strong growth in such a challenging economic environment shows how powerful digital payments are as a long-term growth trend.Equally important is PayPal's innovation. Last year, the company acquired Paidy, a buy now, pay later (BNPL) service in Japan. Then in June 2022, it introduced \"Pay Monthly,\" which further expanded its BNPL offerings in the United States.  Even though CEO Dan Schulman is aiming to cut $1.3 billion from his company's operating expenses in 2023, PayPal isn't skimping on innovation.But as a shareholder of PayPal, the most reassuring data point is the increasing engagement of active accounts. Following a temporary engagement slowdown caused by the pandemic, the average active PayPal account completed 50.1 transactions over the trailing-12-month (TTM) period, ended Sept. 30, 2022. That's up from just 40.1 over the TTM at the end of 2020. This is phenomenal growth for a fee-driven platform.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9921122070,"gmtCreate":1671003721591,"gmtModify":1676538474392,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9921122070","repostId":"1139883493","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139883493","pubTimestamp":1670980450,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139883493?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-14 09:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed to Downshift to Half-Point Hike But Point to Higher Peak","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139883493","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Fed officials are expected to raise rates by 50 basis pointsFresh projections could shed light on ho","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Fed officials are expected to raise rates by 50 basis points</li><li>Fresh projections could shed light on how high rates may go</li></ul><p>The Federal Reserve is poised to moderate its aggressive tightening on Wednesday while signaling that interest rates will ultimately go higher than previously forecast.</p><p>The tricky part for Chair Jerome Powell will be convincing investors that this isn’t a dovish pivot and that officials won’t prematurely end their assault against inflation that’s running three times higher than their 2% goal.</p><p>The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to raise rates by 50 basis points and bring its benchmark target rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest since 2007. Fresh quarterly economic projections released after the meeting will also shed light on how much further policymakers expect rates to go.</p><p>Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see that median estimate peaking at 4.9% after Powell said they will need to lift rates higher than previously anticipated. That implies the FOMC stepping down to 25 basis-point moves in February and March and then putting policy on pause. Investors see things the same way, according to current pricing in interest-rate futures markets.</p><p>The decision, as well as the forecasts, will be announced at 2 p.m. in Washington. Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09990cf4428c3d4cf8dcde939b151e00\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Consumer-price data released Tuesday suggest the worst of US inflation may have passed, making it easier for officials to downshift to a smaller rate increase this week. But Powell could use his press conference to remind the public that officials are not going to let up until inflation is clearly on a path back down to 2%.</p><p>“All eyes will be on the dot plot and the conference and what Fed Chair Powell will be telling us in terms of the path for interest rates going forward,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist for EY Parthenon, referring to the quarterly projections for rates displayed as a chart of anonymous dots though 2025 and in the longer run.</p><h2>Future Rate Path</h2><p>At their September meeting, Fed officials saw rates reaching 4.6% by the end of next year. But policymakers say those expectations have since moved up following economic data showing that while inflation is easing, it remains stubbornly high.</p><p>Officials also say the labor market is still out of balance, with demand for workers exceeding labor supply and wage growth not letting up.</p><p>The projections will offer insight on policymakers’ latest views for where they expect rates to go. But the Fed chief is unlikely to commit to a specific path, preferring to keep his options open, said Michael Pugliese, an economist at Wells Fargo &amp; Co.</p><p>“I think they’ll preserve flexibility,” he said.</p><h2>Conditions for Pause</h2><p>The rate projections could offer clues on how soon officials expect to pause the rate increases. For example, a more modest increase in the terminal rate may suggest that officials could stop hiking rates as soon as March, while a higher peak may suggest that rate increases could continue further into next year, said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist for SGH Macro Advisors.</p><p>But he said it will also be important to hear from Powell about how officials will know that it’s time to pause the rate increases or if they should keep hiking.</p><p>“They’ve been edging closer to something that they think is a terminal rate and that appears to be something near 5%,” said Duy. “What conditions would sort of reinforce that?”</p><h2>‘Ongoing’ Increases?</h2><p>One key phrase to watch for in the FOMC statement is whether officials continue to say that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate” to bring rates to a level that is sufficiently restrictive to reduce inflation.</p><p>Removing the word “ongoing” could send a dovish signal and suggest that the Fed is likely to pause rate increases in March, sooner than expected, according to Roberto Perli and Benson Durham of Piper Sandler &amp; Co.</p><p>However, Fed officials could also decide to keep the “ongoing increases” wording in the statement for the remainder of the hiking cycle to avoid sending a signal that could ease financial conditions, said Derek Tang, an economist with LH Meyer.</p><p>“There’s little cost to them to keep ‘ongoing increases’ in there until the first meeting with no hike,” Tang wrote in an email note.</p><h2>Economic Pain</h2><p>The projections will also reveal what officials expect to see from the US economy in terms of growth, the unemployment rate and inflation. Forecasts showing that officials now expect it to take longer for inflation to come down to their target could help to justify their higher interest-rate projections, said James Knightley, chief international economist for ING.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa9440bed9d42f2a1aea754f85ebc642\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"646\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Policymakers could downgrade their outlook for next year, projecting lower economic growth that is closer to zero and a higher unemployment rate that is approaching 5%, up from the current rate of 3.7%, said EY Parthenon’s Boussour.</p><p>“I think there will be that idea coming out of the new projections that the Fed is ready to tolerate some more economic pain in order to restore price stability,” she said.</p><h2>Soft Landing Odds</h2><p>Even if officials present a base case that avoids a recession, the direction of where those indicators are headed can offer insight on how officials view recession risks, said Pugliese.</p><p>Powell could use the press conference to tell the public that officials believe there is still a path, albeit a narrower one, for a achieving a soft landing, where they succeed in bringing inflation down while minimizing the pain for households, said Knightley.</p><p>“I think the Fed will be saying, ‘well recession is a possibility, but it’s not our base case,’” he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed to Downshift to Half-Point Hike But Point to Higher Peak\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-14 09:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/fed-decision-day-guide-officials-to-downshift-rate-hikes-aim-for-higher-peak><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fed officials are expected to raise rates by 50 basis pointsFresh projections could shed light on how high rates may goThe Federal Reserve is poised to moderate its aggressive tightening on Wednesday ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/fed-decision-day-guide-officials-to-downshift-rate-hikes-aim-for-higher-peak\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-14/fed-decision-day-guide-officials-to-downshift-rate-hikes-aim-for-higher-peak","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139883493","content_text":"Fed officials are expected to raise rates by 50 basis pointsFresh projections could shed light on how high rates may goThe Federal Reserve is poised to moderate its aggressive tightening on Wednesday while signaling that interest rates will ultimately go higher than previously forecast.The tricky part for Chair Jerome Powell will be convincing investors that this isn’t a dovish pivot and that officials won’t prematurely end their assault against inflation that’s running three times higher than their 2% goal.The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to raise rates by 50 basis points and bring its benchmark target rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, the highest since 2007. Fresh quarterly economic projections released after the meeting will also shed light on how much further policymakers expect rates to go.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see that median estimate peaking at 4.9% after Powell said they will need to lift rates higher than previously anticipated. That implies the FOMC stepping down to 25 basis-point moves in February and March and then putting policy on pause. Investors see things the same way, according to current pricing in interest-rate futures markets.The decision, as well as the forecasts, will be announced at 2 p.m. in Washington. Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later.Consumer-price data released Tuesday suggest the worst of US inflation may have passed, making it easier for officials to downshift to a smaller rate increase this week. But Powell could use his press conference to remind the public that officials are not going to let up until inflation is clearly on a path back down to 2%.“All eyes will be on the dot plot and the conference and what Fed Chair Powell will be telling us in terms of the path for interest rates going forward,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist for EY Parthenon, referring to the quarterly projections for rates displayed as a chart of anonymous dots though 2025 and in the longer run.Future Rate PathAt their September meeting, Fed officials saw rates reaching 4.6% by the end of next year. But policymakers say those expectations have since moved up following economic data showing that while inflation is easing, it remains stubbornly high.Officials also say the labor market is still out of balance, with demand for workers exceeding labor supply and wage growth not letting up.The projections will offer insight on policymakers’ latest views for where they expect rates to go. But the Fed chief is unlikely to commit to a specific path, preferring to keep his options open, said Michael Pugliese, an economist at Wells Fargo & Co.“I think they’ll preserve flexibility,” he said.Conditions for PauseThe rate projections could offer clues on how soon officials expect to pause the rate increases. For example, a more modest increase in the terminal rate may suggest that officials could stop hiking rates as soon as March, while a higher peak may suggest that rate increases could continue further into next year, said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist for SGH Macro Advisors.But he said it will also be important to hear from Powell about how officials will know that it’s time to pause the rate increases or if they should keep hiking.“They’ve been edging closer to something that they think is a terminal rate and that appears to be something near 5%,” said Duy. “What conditions would sort of reinforce that?”‘Ongoing’ Increases?One key phrase to watch for in the FOMC statement is whether officials continue to say that “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate” to bring rates to a level that is sufficiently restrictive to reduce inflation.Removing the word “ongoing” could send a dovish signal and suggest that the Fed is likely to pause rate increases in March, sooner than expected, according to Roberto Perli and Benson Durham of Piper Sandler & Co.However, Fed officials could also decide to keep the “ongoing increases” wording in the statement for the remainder of the hiking cycle to avoid sending a signal that could ease financial conditions, said Derek Tang, an economist with LH Meyer.“There’s little cost to them to keep ‘ongoing increases’ in there until the first meeting with no hike,” Tang wrote in an email note.Economic PainThe projections will also reveal what officials expect to see from the US economy in terms of growth, the unemployment rate and inflation. Forecasts showing that officials now expect it to take longer for inflation to come down to their target could help to justify their higher interest-rate projections, said James Knightley, chief international economist for ING.Policymakers could downgrade their outlook for next year, projecting lower economic growth that is closer to zero and a higher unemployment rate that is approaching 5%, up from the current rate of 3.7%, said EY Parthenon’s Boussour.“I think there will be that idea coming out of the new projections that the Fed is ready to tolerate some more economic pain in order to restore price stability,” she said.Soft Landing OddsEven if officials present a base case that avoids a recession, the direction of where those indicators are headed can offer insight on how officials view recession risks, said Pugliese.Powell could use the press conference to tell the public that officials believe there is still a path, albeit a narrower one, for a achieving a soft landing, where they succeed in bringing inflation down while minimizing the pain for households, said Knightley.“I think the Fed will be saying, ‘well recession is a possibility, but it’s not our base case,’” he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923459827,"gmtCreate":1670896296369,"gmtModify":1676538455817,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923459827","repostId":"2291371097","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9929772590,"gmtCreate":1670741270310,"gmtModify":1676538426888,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929772590","repostId":"2290213223","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2290213223","pubTimestamp":1670723606,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2290213223?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-11 09:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2290213223","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economist</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a959345916d49ecfb90abc84cc5b97\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>U.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely hinges on next week’s Federal Reserve rate decision and fresh inflation data.</span></p><p>Investors, like kids on Christmas Eve, have come to expect Santa Claus will get down the chimney, march over to Wall Street and deliver the rewarding gift of a stock-market rally.</p><p>This year, however, investors might be better off betting on a lump of coal, rather than waiting for tangible stock-market gains to emerge in this holiday season, market analysts said.</p><p>“The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year as the equity market navigates higher yields and contracting earnings,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “Seasonal tailwinds that have traditionally driven Santa Claus rallies pale in comparison to the plethora of headwinds the equity market currently faces.”</p><p>U.S. stock indexes tumbled this week, with the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both booking their sharpest weekly declines in nearly three months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The drop occurred as stronger-than-expected economic data added to concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to be more aggressive in its inflation battle than earlier anticipated, even with alarms flashing about a potential economic recession.</p><p>Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street almost every year, bringing a short rally in the last five trading days of December, and the first two days of January. Since 1969, the Santa Rally has boosted the S&amp;P 500 by an average of 1.3%, according to data from Stock Trader’s Almanac.</p><p>“December is the seasonally strongest month of the year, particularly in a midterm election year. So, December has been positive most of the time,” said David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. “It would actually be very unusual for stocks to sell off dramatically in December.”</p><p><b>Will Wall Street get a Santa Claus Rally?</b></p><p>A rotten year for financial assets has begun drawing to a close under a cloud of uncertainty. Given the Federal Reserve’s tough stance on bringing inflation down to its 2% target and already volatile financial markets, many analysts think investors shouldn’t focus too much on whether Santa Claus ends up being naughty or nice.</p><p>“Next week is going to be a huge week for the markets as they attempt to find some footing heading into year end,” said Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth, in emailed comments Friday.</p><p>That makes the Fed’s rate decisions next week and fresh inflation data even more crucial to equity markets. Friday’s wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, dampening hopes that inflation might be cooling off. The core producer-price index, which excludes volatile food, energy and trade prices, also rose 0.3% in November, up from a 0.2% gain in the prior month, the Labor Department said.</p><p>The corresponding November consumer-price index report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, will further show if inflation is subsiding.The CPI increased 0.4% in October and 7.7% from a year ago. The core reading increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis.</p><p>“If the CPI print comes in at 5% on core, then you’d get a real selloff in bonds and in equities. If inflation is still running hotter and you have a recession, can the Fed cut rates? Maybe not. Then you start getting into the stagflation scenarios,” said Ron Temple, head of U.S. equities at Lazard Asset Management.</p><p>Traders are pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will raise its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% next Wednesday, the last day of its Dec. 13-14 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.That would be a slower pace than its four consecutive 0.75 point rate hikes since June.</p><p>John Porter, chief investment officer and head of equity at Newton Investment Management, expects no surprises next week in terms of how much the Fed will raise interest rates. He does, however, anticipate stock-market investors will closely watch Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for insights into the decision and “hang on every single word.”</p><p>“Investors are contorting themselves almost into a pretzel and trying to over-interpret the language,” Porter told MarketWatch via phone. “Listen to what they say, not listen to what you want them to say. They [Fed officials] are going to continue to be vigilant, and they have to watch inflation.”</p><p><b>Does the ‘Santa’ rally really exist?</b></p><p>For years, market analysts have examined potential reasons for the typical seasonal Santa Claus pattern. But with this year still awash in red, some think a rally in late December could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because investors might search for any reason to be slightly merry.</p><p>“If everyone’s focused on the positive seasonals, it could become more of this narrative that drives things rather than anything more fundamental,” David Lefkowitz, head of equities Americas of UBS Global Wealth Management, told MarketWatch via phone.</p><p>“Markets tend to like the holly-jolly spending season so much, so there’s a name for the rally that tends to happen at the end of the year,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “For what it’s worth, I think ‘Santa Claus Rally’ holds as much predictive power as ‘Sell in May and Walk Away,’ which is minimal and coincidental at best.”</p><p><b>Relief rally’s big tests</b></p><p>While the three main U.S. stock indexes booked sharply weekly losses, equities have rallied off the October lows. The S&amp;P 500 has rallied 9.9% from its October low through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.90%gained 16.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.6%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>However, many top Wall Street analysts also see reasons for alarm, specifically that the stock market’s bounce off the recent lows is likely running out of room.</p><p>So, are investors ignoring warnings? Despite talk of the seeming inevitability of a year-end rally, several recent rally attempts failed, while Wall Street’s CBOE Volatility Index, or “fear gauge,” was at 22.86 at Friday’s close. A drop below 20 on the VIX can signify that investor fears about potential market ructions are easing.</p><p>U.S. stock indexes closed down on Friday with the S&amp;P 500 losing 0.7%. The Dow dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.7%. Three major indexes booked a week of sizable losses with the S&amp;P 500 posting a weekly decline of 3.4%. The Dow declined by 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 4% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>Next week, not long after the CPI and the Fed decision, investors will also receive November retail sales data and industrial production index on Thursday, followed by the S&amp;P Global’s flash PMI readings on Friday.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Stock-Market Investors Shouldn’t Count on a \"Santa Claus\" Rally This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-11 09:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-investors-shouldnt-count-on-a-santa-claus-rally-this-year-11670628375?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2290213223","content_text":"‘The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year,’ says economistU.S. stocks tend to rally in the final week of December, and carry the upswing into early January. But a holiday bounce this year likely hinges on next week’s Federal Reserve rate decision and fresh inflation data.Investors, like kids on Christmas Eve, have come to expect Santa Claus will get down the chimney, march over to Wall Street and deliver the rewarding gift of a stock-market rally.This year, however, investors might be better off betting on a lump of coal, rather than waiting for tangible stock-market gains to emerge in this holiday season, market analysts said.“The Santa Claus rally is canceled this year as the equity market navigates higher yields and contracting earnings,” said José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers. “Seasonal tailwinds that have traditionally driven Santa Claus rallies pale in comparison to the plethora of headwinds the equity market currently faces.”U.S. stock indexes tumbled this week, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both booking their sharpest weekly declines in nearly three months, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The drop occurred as stronger-than-expected economic data added to concerns that the Federal Reserve might need to be more aggressive in its inflation battle than earlier anticipated, even with alarms flashing about a potential economic recession.Santa Claus tends to come to Wall Street almost every year, bringing a short rally in the last five trading days of December, and the first two days of January. Since 1969, the Santa Rally has boosted the S&P 500 by an average of 1.3%, according to data from Stock Trader’s Almanac.“December is the seasonally strongest month of the year, particularly in a midterm election year. So, December has been positive most of the time,” said David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com. “It would actually be very unusual for stocks to sell off dramatically in December.”Will Wall Street get a Santa Claus Rally?A rotten year for financial assets has begun drawing to a close under a cloud of uncertainty. Given the Federal Reserve’s tough stance on bringing inflation down to its 2% target and already volatile financial markets, many analysts think investors shouldn’t focus too much on whether Santa Claus ends up being naughty or nice.“Next week is going to be a huge week for the markets as they attempt to find some footing heading into year end,” said Cliff Hodge, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth, in emailed comments Friday.That makes the Fed’s rate decisions next week and fresh inflation data even more crucial to equity markets. Friday’s wholesale prices rose more than expected in November, dampening hopes that inflation might be cooling off. The core producer-price index, which excludes volatile food, energy and trade prices, also rose 0.3% in November, up from a 0.2% gain in the prior month, the Labor Department said.The corresponding November consumer-price index report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday, will further show if inflation is subsiding.The CPI increased 0.4% in October and 7.7% from a year ago. The core reading increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis.“If the CPI print comes in at 5% on core, then you’d get a real selloff in bonds and in equities. If inflation is still running hotter and you have a recession, can the Fed cut rates? Maybe not. Then you start getting into the stagflation scenarios,” said Ron Temple, head of U.S. equities at Lazard Asset Management.Traders are pricing in a 77% probability that the Fed will raise its policy interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.50% next Wednesday, the last day of its Dec. 13-14 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.That would be a slower pace than its four consecutive 0.75 point rate hikes since June.John Porter, chief investment officer and head of equity at Newton Investment Management, expects no surprises next week in terms of how much the Fed will raise interest rates. He does, however, anticipate stock-market investors will closely watch Fed Chair Powell’s press conference for insights into the decision and “hang on every single word.”“Investors are contorting themselves almost into a pretzel and trying to over-interpret the language,” Porter told MarketWatch via phone. “Listen to what they say, not listen to what you want them to say. They [Fed officials] are going to continue to be vigilant, and they have to watch inflation.”Does the ‘Santa’ rally really exist?For years, market analysts have examined potential reasons for the typical seasonal Santa Claus pattern. But with this year still awash in red, some think a rally in late December could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, simply because investors might search for any reason to be slightly merry.“If everyone’s focused on the positive seasonals, it could become more of this narrative that drives things rather than anything more fundamental,” David Lefkowitz, head of equities Americas of UBS Global Wealth Management, told MarketWatch via phone.“Markets tend to like the holly-jolly spending season so much, so there’s a name for the rally that tends to happen at the end of the year,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “For what it’s worth, I think ‘Santa Claus Rally’ holds as much predictive power as ‘Sell in May and Walk Away,’ which is minimal and coincidental at best.”Relief rally’s big testsWhile the three main U.S. stock indexes booked sharply weekly losses, equities have rallied off the October lows. The S&P 500 has rallied 9.9% from its October low through Friday, while the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.90%gained 16.5% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 6.6%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.However, many top Wall Street analysts also see reasons for alarm, specifically that the stock market’s bounce off the recent lows is likely running out of room.So, are investors ignoring warnings? Despite talk of the seeming inevitability of a year-end rally, several recent rally attempts failed, while Wall Street’s CBOE Volatility Index, or “fear gauge,” was at 22.86 at Friday’s close. A drop below 20 on the VIX can signify that investor fears about potential market ructions are easing.U.S. stock indexes closed down on Friday with the S&P 500 losing 0.7%. The Dow dropped 0.9%, and the Nasdaq shed 0.7%. Three major indexes booked a week of sizable losses with the S&P 500 posting a weekly decline of 3.4%. The Dow declined by 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite was down nearly 4% this week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.Next week, not long after the CPI and the Fed decision, investors will also receive November retail sales data and industrial production index on Thursday, followed by the S&P Global’s flash PMI readings on Friday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":30,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056131764,"gmtCreate":1654963417758,"gmtModify":1676535540350,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056131764","repostId":"2242635344","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242635344","pubTimestamp":1654916290,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2242635344?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-11 10:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Stocks to Buy and Hold Through Any Market Downturn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242635344","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These two companies have a couple of crucial qualities in common.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Some investments are better equipped to survive recessions and market corrections than others. A strong balance sheet helps a lot, and it&#39;s even better if management is willing and able to adapt to a changing business environment.</p><p>These are excellent qualities in the best of times as well. However, flexibility and a solid financial footing will separate the wheat from the chaff when the market turns bearish. These are the companies that will survive the longest and roughest of storms, looking like a winner amid the widespread wreckage on the other side.</p><p>So if you expect the economy to continue the downtrend of the last six months, you should consider grabbing a few shares of <b>Micron Technology</b>  and <b>Alphabet</b> right now. These businesses come with heaping helpings of the game-changing features mentioned above, and the deal gets even sweeter when the stocks are trading at fire-sale prices.</p><h2>A solid financial platform</h2><p>Let&#39;s get the numbers out of the way first.</p><p>Google parent Alphabet has $20.9 billion of cash equivalents on its balance sheet, paired with just $14.8 billion in long-term debt. But that&#39;s not all. In a pinch, Alphabet could also sell off its marketable securities -- stocks, bonds, and other not-quite-cash assets -- valued at $113 billion at the end of March.</p><p>So Alphabet carries liquid assets worth approximately 8 times as much as its long-term debt. If the cash flow spigot suddenly shuts off, these reserves would carry the company through many years or even decades of dark times.</p><p>Memory-chip maker Micron should be a different story because it works in a different sector. Alphabet&#39;s operations are asset-light and highly profitable, while Micron invests billions of dollars in semiconductor manufacturing equipment every year. It&#39;s only fair to expect Micron&#39;s balance sheet to tilt heavily in the direction of massive debts and limited cash.</p><p>But the company plays a different tune. As of March 3, Micron carried $10.1 billion of cash and short-term investments against just $7 billion in long-term debt. Yes, Micron&#39;s debt leverage is a little bit less comfortable than Alphabet&#39;s, but the company is in excellent financial shape considering the asset-rich sector it&#39;s in.</p><p>Both Micron and Alphabet are also adding to their cash hoards, generating generous free cash flows every year:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/294e44ec991217e05531996c5bcf25c3\" tg-width=\"1015\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GOOG and MU Free Cash Flow data by YCharts</p><h2>Keeping an open mind</h2><p>Flexibility is the other half of my formula for long-term success in any type of market.</p><p>I shouldn&#39;t need to remind you that Alphabet is the king of trying new ideas. Google&#39;s search and advertising services have made Alphabet <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the most valuable companies in the world, but management has long been planning for the next stage. The potential growth drivers of that stretch include the Waymo self-driving car business, health services from Verily Life Sciences, and high-speed internet connections by Google Fiber.</p><p>The proliferation of future business ideas not named Google is the reason behind the name change to Alphabet in 2015. By disconnecting the corporate name from the Google brand, Alphabet set itself up to become a cross-sector conglomerate in the long run.</p><p>In short, Alphabet keeps a stirringly open mind to new business ideas. Whatever comes next, the company will poke and prod at the new environment until it finds a healthy and profitable niche (or five). With the backing of that ultra-solid balance sheet, I see no reason why Alphabet shouldn&#39;t thrive through the next downturn and beyond.</p><p>Micron isn&#39;t quite as adventurous as Alphabet, of course. Once again, the company has invested many billions in a global chip-making infrastructure and you can&#39;t just flip a switch to run that business in a totally different direction.</p><p>But Micron has grown up from a smallish chipmaker in a highly fragmented industry to a leading supplier in a new era. There are only a couple of memory-chip companies left on the market after several rounds of pricing pressure, bankruptcies, buyouts, and consolidation. Micron has always emerged from these challenging cycles as a winner, picking up the ashes of its failed rivals in pennies-on-the-dollar bankruptcy auctions.</p><p>The mature version of the memory industry that you see today has also been good for Micron. The sector as a whole has started to slow down the boom-and-bust cycles of low chip supplies, massive factory investments, and oversupply. Micron&#39;s strategy these days is to increase its manufacturing capacity in line with rising demand for memory chips, and no more.</p><p>So Micron may not be leading the charge into unknown territory the way Alphabet does, but the company has a proven ability to adopt the right strategy for a variety of market conditions. That should keep Micron going strong for the long run, come chip shortages or low waters.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Stocks to Buy and Hold Through Any Market Downturn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Stocks to Buy and Hold Through Any Market Downturn\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-11 10:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/10/2-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-in-any-market-downturn/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Some investments are better equipped to survive recessions and market corrections than others. A strong balance sheet helps a lot, and it's even better if management is willing and able to adapt to a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/10/2-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-in-any-market-downturn/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/06/10/2-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-in-any-market-downturn/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2242635344","content_text":"Some investments are better equipped to survive recessions and market corrections than others. A strong balance sheet helps a lot, and it's even better if management is willing and able to adapt to a changing business environment.These are excellent qualities in the best of times as well. However, flexibility and a solid financial footing will separate the wheat from the chaff when the market turns bearish. These are the companies that will survive the longest and roughest of storms, looking like a winner amid the widespread wreckage on the other side.So if you expect the economy to continue the downtrend of the last six months, you should consider grabbing a few shares of Micron Technology  and Alphabet right now. These businesses come with heaping helpings of the game-changing features mentioned above, and the deal gets even sweeter when the stocks are trading at fire-sale prices.A solid financial platformLet's get the numbers out of the way first.Google parent Alphabet has $20.9 billion of cash equivalents on its balance sheet, paired with just $14.8 billion in long-term debt. But that's not all. In a pinch, Alphabet could also sell off its marketable securities -- stocks, bonds, and other not-quite-cash assets -- valued at $113 billion at the end of March.So Alphabet carries liquid assets worth approximately 8 times as much as its long-term debt. If the cash flow spigot suddenly shuts off, these reserves would carry the company through many years or even decades of dark times.Memory-chip maker Micron should be a different story because it works in a different sector. Alphabet's operations are asset-light and highly profitable, while Micron invests billions of dollars in semiconductor manufacturing equipment every year. It's only fair to expect Micron's balance sheet to tilt heavily in the direction of massive debts and limited cash.But the company plays a different tune. As of March 3, Micron carried $10.1 billion of cash and short-term investments against just $7 billion in long-term debt. Yes, Micron's debt leverage is a little bit less comfortable than Alphabet's, but the company is in excellent financial shape considering the asset-rich sector it's in.Both Micron and Alphabet are also adding to their cash hoards, generating generous free cash flows every year:GOOG and MU Free Cash Flow data by YChartsKeeping an open mindFlexibility is the other half of my formula for long-term success in any type of market.I shouldn't need to remind you that Alphabet is the king of trying new ideas. Google's search and advertising services have made Alphabet one of the most valuable companies in the world, but management has long been planning for the next stage. The potential growth drivers of that stretch include the Waymo self-driving car business, health services from Verily Life Sciences, and high-speed internet connections by Google Fiber.The proliferation of future business ideas not named Google is the reason behind the name change to Alphabet in 2015. By disconnecting the corporate name from the Google brand, Alphabet set itself up to become a cross-sector conglomerate in the long run.In short, Alphabet keeps a stirringly open mind to new business ideas. Whatever comes next, the company will poke and prod at the new environment until it finds a healthy and profitable niche (or five). With the backing of that ultra-solid balance sheet, I see no reason why Alphabet shouldn't thrive through the next downturn and beyond.Micron isn't quite as adventurous as Alphabet, of course. Once again, the company has invested many billions in a global chip-making infrastructure and you can't just flip a switch to run that business in a totally different direction.But Micron has grown up from a smallish chipmaker in a highly fragmented industry to a leading supplier in a new era. There are only a couple of memory-chip companies left on the market after several rounds of pricing pressure, bankruptcies, buyouts, and consolidation. Micron has always emerged from these challenging cycles as a winner, picking up the ashes of its failed rivals in pennies-on-the-dollar bankruptcy auctions.The mature version of the memory industry that you see today has also been good for Micron. The sector as a whole has started to slow down the boom-and-bust cycles of low chip supplies, massive factory investments, and oversupply. Micron's strategy these days is to increase its manufacturing capacity in line with rising demand for memory chips, and no more.So Micron may not be leading the charge into unknown territory the way Alphabet does, but the company has a proven ability to adopt the right strategy for a variety of market conditions. That should keep Micron going strong for the long run, come chip shortages or low waters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9002995229,"gmtCreate":1641878719371,"gmtModify":1676533658368,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9002995229","repostId":"2202277188","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2202277188","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1641855743,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2202277188?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-11 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Nasdaq Ekes Out Gain in Late Session Comeback","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2202277188","media":"Reuters","summary":"Wall Street's three major indexes staged a late-session comeback on Monday as the Nasdaq managed to ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street&#39;s three major indexes staged a late-session comeback on Monday as the Nasdaq managed to eke out a tiny gain and investors swooped in to hunt for bargains, while the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished well above their session lows.</p><p>After falling almost 3% earlier in the day and as much as 10.37% below its intraday record level reached on Nov. 22, the technology-heavy Nasdaq pointed sharply higher to regain all its losses for the day in afternoon trading.</p><p>While investors spent the morning fretting about rising bond yields and what this week&#39;s inflation data might mean for U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening, others took advantage of earlier nerves to buy the dip.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ve gotten to the point where you wonder if the roller coaster has peaked and is heading straight down. But fundamentally there&#39;s a lot of buyers in this market buying on the dip,&#34; said Rick Meckler, a partner of Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey who attributed much of the afternoon strength to retail investors buying favorite stocks such as Tesla   .</p><p>Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago also attributed the late session comeback to dip-buyers looking at U.S. Treasury yields fall from their peaks of the day.</p><p>&#34;Some of the tech names are off 5 to 10 percent or more, and people are looking at that and going that looks pretty good - time to snap them up,&#34; said Nolte.</p><p>&#34;The other thing though to keep an eye on is what happens to interest rates because that has really been what&#39;s been dragging technology. We saw little bit of a reversal late in the day in (Treasury yields). They came down just a touch and that was a little bit of a green light for tech investors,&#34; he said.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 162.79 points, or 0.45%, to 36,068.87, the S&amp;P 500    lost 6.74 points, or 0.14%, to 4,670.29 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 6.93 points, or 0.05%, to 14,942.83.</p><p>After starting the day among the biggest laggards, the S&amp;P technology index managed to eke out a tiny gain of 0.1%, behind the healthcare sector which closed up 1% and ahead of communications services which, rising 0.02%, was the session&#39;s only other gainer among the 11 major industry sectors.</p><p>The biggest decliners on the day were industrials which closed down 1.2% and materials which dropped 0.99%.</p><p>Traders have ramped up their rate hike expectations since the Fed&#39;s minutes from the December meeting appeared to signal an earlier-than-expected rate rise.</p><p>Goldman Sachs said it expects the Fed to raise rates four times in 2022, compared to its previous forecast of three.</p><p>Earlier the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level in nearly two years on Monday.</p><p>After falling as much as 4.6% earlier in the session, Nasdaq heavyweight Tesla made a dramatic turnaround to close up 3%.</p><p>Meckler said retail investors appeared to flood back into the stock which had suffered after Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted on Friday that the electric carmaker will raise the U.S. price of its advanced driver assistant software.</p><p>Nike shares closed down 4.2% after HSBC downgraded the stock to &#34;hold.&#34;</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.04-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.97-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and 5 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 69 new highs and 609 new lows.</p><p>On U.S. exchanges 12.15 billion shares changed hands compared with the 10.55 billion average for the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Nasdaq Ekes Out Gain in Late Session Comeback</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Nasdaq Ekes Out Gain in Late Session Comeback\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-11 07:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Wall Street&#39;s three major indexes staged a late-session comeback on Monday as the Nasdaq managed to eke out a tiny gain and investors swooped in to hunt for bargains, while the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished well above their session lows.</p><p>After falling almost 3% earlier in the day and as much as 10.37% below its intraday record level reached on Nov. 22, the technology-heavy Nasdaq pointed sharply higher to regain all its losses for the day in afternoon trading.</p><p>While investors spent the morning fretting about rising bond yields and what this week&#39;s inflation data might mean for U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening, others took advantage of earlier nerves to buy the dip.</p><p>&#34;We&#39;ve gotten to the point where you wonder if the roller coaster has peaked and is heading straight down. But fundamentally there&#39;s a lot of buyers in this market buying on the dip,&#34; said Rick Meckler, a partner of Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey who attributed much of the afternoon strength to retail investors buying favorite stocks such as Tesla   .</p><p>Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago also attributed the late session comeback to dip-buyers looking at U.S. Treasury yields fall from their peaks of the day.</p><p>&#34;Some of the tech names are off 5 to 10 percent or more, and people are looking at that and going that looks pretty good - time to snap them up,&#34; said Nolte.</p><p>&#34;The other thing though to keep an eye on is what happens to interest rates because that has really been what&#39;s been dragging technology. We saw little bit of a reversal late in the day in (Treasury yields). They came down just a touch and that was a little bit of a green light for tech investors,&#34; he said.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 162.79 points, or 0.45%, to 36,068.87, the S&amp;P 500    lost 6.74 points, or 0.14%, to 4,670.29 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 6.93 points, or 0.05%, to 14,942.83.</p><p>After starting the day among the biggest laggards, the S&amp;P technology index managed to eke out a tiny gain of 0.1%, behind the healthcare sector which closed up 1% and ahead of communications services which, rising 0.02%, was the session&#39;s only other gainer among the 11 major industry sectors.</p><p>The biggest decliners on the day were industrials which closed down 1.2% and materials which dropped 0.99%.</p><p>Traders have ramped up their rate hike expectations since the Fed&#39;s minutes from the December meeting appeared to signal an earlier-than-expected rate rise.</p><p>Goldman Sachs said it expects the Fed to raise rates four times in 2022, compared to its previous forecast of three.</p><p>Earlier the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level in nearly two years on Monday.</p><p>After falling as much as 4.6% earlier in the session, Nasdaq heavyweight Tesla made a dramatic turnaround to close up 3%.</p><p>Meckler said retail investors appeared to flood back into the stock which had suffered after Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted on Friday that the electric carmaker will raise the U.S. price of its advanced driver assistant software.</p><p>Nike shares closed down 4.2% after HSBC downgraded the stock to &#34;hold.&#34;</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.04-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.97-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and 5 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 69 new highs and 609 new lows.</p><p>On U.S. exchanges 12.15 billion shares changed hands compared with the 10.55 billion average for the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TSLA":"特斯拉",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2202277188","content_text":"Wall Street's three major indexes staged a late-session comeback on Monday as the Nasdaq managed to eke out a tiny gain and investors swooped in to hunt for bargains, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished well above their session lows.After falling almost 3% earlier in the day and as much as 10.37% below its intraday record level reached on Nov. 22, the technology-heavy Nasdaq pointed sharply higher to regain all its losses for the day in afternoon trading.While investors spent the morning fretting about rising bond yields and what this week's inflation data might mean for U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening, others took advantage of earlier nerves to buy the dip.\"We've gotten to the point where you wonder if the roller coaster has peaked and is heading straight down. But fundamentally there's a lot of buyers in this market buying on the dip,\" said Rick Meckler, a partner of Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey who attributed much of the afternoon strength to retail investors buying favorite stocks such as Tesla   .Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago also attributed the late session comeback to dip-buyers looking at U.S. Treasury yields fall from their peaks of the day.\"Some of the tech names are off 5 to 10 percent or more, and people are looking at that and going that looks pretty good - time to snap them up,\" said Nolte.\"The other thing though to keep an eye on is what happens to interest rates because that has really been what's been dragging technology. We saw little bit of a reversal late in the day in (Treasury yields). They came down just a touch and that was a little bit of a green light for tech investors,\" he said.The Dow Jones Industrial Average    fell 162.79 points, or 0.45%, to 36,068.87, the S&P 500    lost 6.74 points, or 0.14%, to 4,670.29 and the Nasdaq Composite    added 6.93 points, or 0.05%, to 14,942.83.After starting the day among the biggest laggards, the S&P technology index managed to eke out a tiny gain of 0.1%, behind the healthcare sector which closed up 1% and ahead of communications services which, rising 0.02%, was the session's only other gainer among the 11 major industry sectors.The biggest decliners on the day were industrials which closed down 1.2% and materials which dropped 0.99%.Traders have ramped up their rate hike expectations since the Fed's minutes from the December meeting appeared to signal an earlier-than-expected rate rise.Goldman Sachs said it expects the Fed to raise rates four times in 2022, compared to its previous forecast of three.Earlier the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level in nearly two years on Monday.After falling as much as 4.6% earlier in the session, Nasdaq heavyweight Tesla made a dramatic turnaround to close up 3%.Meckler said retail investors appeared to flood back into the stock which had suffered after Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted on Friday that the electric carmaker will raise the U.S. price of its advanced driver assistant software.Nike shares closed down 4.2% after HSBC downgraded the stock to \"hold.\"Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.04-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.97-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and 5 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 69 new highs and 609 new lows.On U.S. exchanges 12.15 billion shares changed hands compared with the 10.55 billion average for the last 20 sessions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888902355,"gmtCreate":1631418881777,"gmtModify":1676530544943,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888902355","repostId":"2166375184","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2166375184","pubTimestamp":1631329320,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2166375184?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 11:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Top Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166375184","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Time plus patience, multiplied by sustainable business advantages: the formula for making serious money in the stock market. These three stocks fit the bill.","content":"<p>There are many ways to make money in the stock market. Every investor has their own style, different levels of risk tolerance, and diverse goals. But <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the easiest and most profitable ways to get rich on Wall Street is to follow in the footsteps of true masters such as Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham.</p>\n<p>It's elementary, really. First, identify companies with fantastic growth opportunities, sustainable business advantages over their rivals, and excellent management teams. Then, buy these stocks at reasonable prices. It's OK to overpay a bit if you have to. Quality doesn't always come cheap.</p>\n<p>Then, stick those shares under your proverbial pillow and get some undisturbed sleep. Do absolutely nothing for years or even decades. Companies with the qualities I listed a minute ago should be able to deliver solid returns for the long haul, unlocking the magic of compounding returns over very long periods.</p>\n<p>Even ardent growth investors with a high tolerance for market risk should have a handful of these surefire long-term bets in their portfolios. For example, my own collection of small-cap tickers, promising growth stocks, and the odd speculative bet is built around a solid core of long-term champions. Whatever happens to the rest of my real-world holdings, I don't lose a minute of sleep over these proven winners. The stocks mentioned below are firmly established members of that elite group.</p>\n<p>Read on to see why every investor should consider holding a few shares of <b>Roku</b> (NASDAQ:ROKU), <b>Alphabet</b> (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and <b>Walt Disney</b> (NYSE:DIS). All of these familiar names are poised to keep winning for many years to come, each in its own inimitable way.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5102320568ff7a6b2fe0ee7c527c253\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Time is money. Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Roku: Modern entertainment in a nutshell</h2>\n<p>Streaming media is everywhere nowadays. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the mainstream adoption of digital entertainment services, and the health crisis struck just as every entertainment company on the planet seemed to be launching its own streaming platform.</p>\n<p>Roku benefits from all of this activity, being the global leader in media-streaming technologies. The company's service-agnostic philosophy does a couple of important things for Roku's long-term success. First, this company can be a huge winner no matter which content studio walks away with the trophy for having the most viewers in the end. Second, Roku's omnipresent nature in the set-top box and smart TV markets forces every new service to develop support for Roku's platform. These two qualities reinforce each other as time goes by, further cementing Roku's rock-solid growth trajectory.</p>\n<p>Streaming entertainment is here to stay. Roku has claimed the catbird seat for itself in this explosive growth market. It would take a massive effort by an established entertainment technology giant to dethrone Roku at this point. Most of those large-scale rivals are too deeply attached to their long-standing traditions to really go for it.</p>\n<p>For example, I would eat my shoe if <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL) ever decided to give equal support to every available streaming service and hardware device. The Apple TV app is only available for devices designed in Cupertino, and the Apple TV set-top box works best with the iTunes ecosystem. That's the exact opposite of Roku's agnostic attitude, and the main reason why I don't see Apple as a serious Roku competitor.</p>\n<p>A larger company could give up on promoting its in-house platform options and just buy Roku instead. However, Roku is trading at 208 times forward earnings or 210 times free cash flows. The company's enterprise value stands at a hefty $44.1 billion today. That's rich enough to make any tech giant think twice about putting together an acquisition offer, especially one with a buyout premium large enough to win the required shareholder vote. The lofty price tag is Roku's best takeover defense.</p>\n<p>This is one of those situations where a high price shouldn't deter you from picking up Roku shares. You get to own a premium business when you pay that premium price.</p>\n<p>So if you want to bet on the future of digital entertainment without worrying about the content production side of things, Roku is your best bet. This stock should deliver market-beating returns for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<h2>Alphabet: Throwing spaghetti at the wall for fun and profit</h2>\n<p>So far, almost all of Alphabet's success and financial gains have sprung from the Google-branded set of online search and advertising tools. In the recently reported second quarter of 2021, Google services and Google Cloud accounted for 99.2% of Alphabet's total sales. The remaining operations, under the \"other bets\" segment, also reported an operating loss of $1.1 billion, while the Google segments generated $8.1 billion in operating profits. It's all about the Big G.</p>\n<p>That won't always be the case, though.</p>\n<p>Google transformed into the conglomerate known as Alphabet exactly because the company knows that big changes are coming. Web browsers and ad-boosted websites will not always provide a stable revenue stream for Google. Mobile apps and the Android platform are ready to take over, but this too shall pass.</p>\n<p>And Alphabet is trying out a whole bunch of alternative business ideas. So far, the company is looking at ideas such as self-driving cars, high-speed internet services, advanced medical research, and next-generation agriculture development. One or several of those unconventional bets should stand ready to carry Alphabet's financial torch when the time comes. Or maybe we haven't even heard of Alphabet's best ideas yet.</p>\n<p>Nobody knows exactly where this train is going, but I'm OK with that. Alphabet is willing to keep throwing spaghetti at the wall until something really sticks, creating the foundation of whatever this company might become. Alphabet's ambitious moonshot projects generally strike me as wholesome ideas that could benefit humanity on a large scale -- and I would be happy to benefit from their potential success.</p>\n<p>That's why Alphabet will always hold a place in my investment portfolio. This company is ready and able to change with the times. That's one effective way to build a successful business for the ages.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/300a57a82684c9a313758e27f921ed5e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"485\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>The winds of change are blowing. Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Disney: Always ready to turn on a dime</h2>\n<p>Finally, Disney's leaders are proving their willingness to try new ideas. The House of Mouse reorganized itself around streaming content last year, thumbing its nose at the traditional media industry to refocus on what's next. Its world-class theme parks are adapting to the restrictions of social distancing, putting together a positive third-quarter showing after several quarters of negative operating profits.</p>\n<p>This is the only old-school media studio I would consider owning nowadays. Unfortunately, Disney's sector peers often respond to changing market conditions by retreating into their shells to defend the operating procedures of old, and those efforts are mostly ineffective.</p>\n<p>For example, movie theater attendance has been falling for decades. Hollywood at large wanted to address this problem by raising ticket prices, which then resulted in even fewer ticket sales. In Disney's case, the company eventually fired up a serious media-streaming service packed with the company's legendary content, supported by a steady stream of brand new original material.</p>\n<p>Disney+ is the company's future in many ways, and you won't see CEO Bob Chapek or chairman Bob Iger complaining about that fact. Instead, they tweaked their company's operating structure to accelerate the transformation.</p>\n<p>I don't know where the entertainment and media markets are going in the long run, but I don't really have to. I'm convinced that Disney will do whatever it takes to stay relevant and thriving in whatever market conditions might be around the bend. Again, I really like owning stocks tied to businesses that can and will change over time. Disney is another great example of this market-beating quality.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Top Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Top Stocks to Buy for the Long Haul\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-11 11:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/10/3-top-stocks-to-buy-for-the-long-haul/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>There are many ways to make money in the stock market. Every investor has their own style, different levels of risk tolerance, and diverse goals. But one of the easiest and most profitable ways to get...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/10/3-top-stocks-to-buy-for-the-long-haul/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","DIS":"迪士尼","ROKU":"Roku Inc","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/10/3-top-stocks-to-buy-for-the-long-haul/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2166375184","content_text":"There are many ways to make money in the stock market. Every investor has their own style, different levels of risk tolerance, and diverse goals. But one of the easiest and most profitable ways to get rich on Wall Street is to follow in the footsteps of true masters such as Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham.\nIt's elementary, really. First, identify companies with fantastic growth opportunities, sustainable business advantages over their rivals, and excellent management teams. Then, buy these stocks at reasonable prices. It's OK to overpay a bit if you have to. Quality doesn't always come cheap.\nThen, stick those shares under your proverbial pillow and get some undisturbed sleep. Do absolutely nothing for years or even decades. Companies with the qualities I listed a minute ago should be able to deliver solid returns for the long haul, unlocking the magic of compounding returns over very long periods.\nEven ardent growth investors with a high tolerance for market risk should have a handful of these surefire long-term bets in their portfolios. For example, my own collection of small-cap tickers, promising growth stocks, and the odd speculative bet is built around a solid core of long-term champions. Whatever happens to the rest of my real-world holdings, I don't lose a minute of sleep over these proven winners. The stocks mentioned below are firmly established members of that elite group.\nRead on to see why every investor should consider holding a few shares of Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS). All of these familiar names are poised to keep winning for many years to come, each in its own inimitable way.\nTime is money. Image source: Getty Images.\nRoku: Modern entertainment in a nutshell\nStreaming media is everywhere nowadays. The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the mainstream adoption of digital entertainment services, and the health crisis struck just as every entertainment company on the planet seemed to be launching its own streaming platform.\nRoku benefits from all of this activity, being the global leader in media-streaming technologies. The company's service-agnostic philosophy does a couple of important things for Roku's long-term success. First, this company can be a huge winner no matter which content studio walks away with the trophy for having the most viewers in the end. Second, Roku's omnipresent nature in the set-top box and smart TV markets forces every new service to develop support for Roku's platform. These two qualities reinforce each other as time goes by, further cementing Roku's rock-solid growth trajectory.\nStreaming entertainment is here to stay. Roku has claimed the catbird seat for itself in this explosive growth market. It would take a massive effort by an established entertainment technology giant to dethrone Roku at this point. Most of those large-scale rivals are too deeply attached to their long-standing traditions to really go for it.\nFor example, I would eat my shoe if Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) ever decided to give equal support to every available streaming service and hardware device. The Apple TV app is only available for devices designed in Cupertino, and the Apple TV set-top box works best with the iTunes ecosystem. That's the exact opposite of Roku's agnostic attitude, and the main reason why I don't see Apple as a serious Roku competitor.\nA larger company could give up on promoting its in-house platform options and just buy Roku instead. However, Roku is trading at 208 times forward earnings or 210 times free cash flows. The company's enterprise value stands at a hefty $44.1 billion today. That's rich enough to make any tech giant think twice about putting together an acquisition offer, especially one with a buyout premium large enough to win the required shareholder vote. The lofty price tag is Roku's best takeover defense.\nThis is one of those situations where a high price shouldn't deter you from picking up Roku shares. You get to own a premium business when you pay that premium price.\nSo if you want to bet on the future of digital entertainment without worrying about the content production side of things, Roku is your best bet. This stock should deliver market-beating returns for the foreseeable future.\nAlphabet: Throwing spaghetti at the wall for fun and profit\nSo far, almost all of Alphabet's success and financial gains have sprung from the Google-branded set of online search and advertising tools. In the recently reported second quarter of 2021, Google services and Google Cloud accounted for 99.2% of Alphabet's total sales. The remaining operations, under the \"other bets\" segment, also reported an operating loss of $1.1 billion, while the Google segments generated $8.1 billion in operating profits. It's all about the Big G.\nThat won't always be the case, though.\nGoogle transformed into the conglomerate known as Alphabet exactly because the company knows that big changes are coming. Web browsers and ad-boosted websites will not always provide a stable revenue stream for Google. Mobile apps and the Android platform are ready to take over, but this too shall pass.\nAnd Alphabet is trying out a whole bunch of alternative business ideas. So far, the company is looking at ideas such as self-driving cars, high-speed internet services, advanced medical research, and next-generation agriculture development. One or several of those unconventional bets should stand ready to carry Alphabet's financial torch when the time comes. Or maybe we haven't even heard of Alphabet's best ideas yet.\nNobody knows exactly where this train is going, but I'm OK with that. Alphabet is willing to keep throwing spaghetti at the wall until something really sticks, creating the foundation of whatever this company might become. Alphabet's ambitious moonshot projects generally strike me as wholesome ideas that could benefit humanity on a large scale -- and I would be happy to benefit from their potential success.\nThat's why Alphabet will always hold a place in my investment portfolio. This company is ready and able to change with the times. That's one effective way to build a successful business for the ages.\nThe winds of change are blowing. Image source: Getty Images.\nDisney: Always ready to turn on a dime\nFinally, Disney's leaders are proving their willingness to try new ideas. The House of Mouse reorganized itself around streaming content last year, thumbing its nose at the traditional media industry to refocus on what's next. Its world-class theme parks are adapting to the restrictions of social distancing, putting together a positive third-quarter showing after several quarters of negative operating profits.\nThis is the only old-school media studio I would consider owning nowadays. Unfortunately, Disney's sector peers often respond to changing market conditions by retreating into their shells to defend the operating procedures of old, and those efforts are mostly ineffective.\nFor example, movie theater attendance has been falling for decades. Hollywood at large wanted to address this problem by raising ticket prices, which then resulted in even fewer ticket sales. In Disney's case, the company eventually fired up a serious media-streaming service packed with the company's legendary content, supported by a steady stream of brand new original material.\nDisney+ is the company's future in many ways, and you won't see CEO Bob Chapek or chairman Bob Iger complaining about that fact. Instead, they tweaked their company's operating structure to accelerate the transformation.\nI don't know where the entertainment and media markets are going in the long run, but I don't really have to. I'm convinced that Disney will do whatever it takes to stay relevant and thriving in whatever market conditions might be around the bend. Again, I really like owning stocks tied to businesses that can and will change over time. Disney is another great example of this market-beating quality.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9927628253,"gmtCreate":1672477710372,"gmtModify":1676538696138,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9927628253","repostId":"1131331146","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131331146","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672396971,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131331146?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-30 18:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2022 Recap: Which Singapore Stocks Are Winners?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131331146","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"2022 has been a tough year for markets with both the NASDAQ Composite Index and S&P 500 Index fallin","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2022 has been a tough year for markets with both the NASDAQ Composite Index and S&amp;P 500 Index falling into abear market.</p><p>Investors may be pleased to know that the STI has held up well this year, chalking up a small gain of 4.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e3122b459e8b2a819dd2599ac52d6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As the curtains come down for 2022, it’s time to reflect on the stock market for the year. Which Singapore stocks with a market cap above S$1 billion are winners? Let’s find out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c0dd36e39fe3ee73f32195a657360e0\" tg-width=\"1727\" tg-height=\"2680\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>1. Golden Energy and Resources (AUE)</h2><p>Golden Energy and Resources (Gear) is a Singapore-listed leading energy and resources company in the Asia Pacific region. GEAR principally engages in the exploration, mining, and marketing of metallurgical coal in Australia through its subsidiary Stanmore Coal Limited, and energy coal in Indonesia through its subsidiary PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk.</p><p>Golden Energy and Resources shares soared 170.69% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09f354c155ef7c30f3358df038557f6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>2. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6)</h2><p>Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is a large enterprise group with shipbuilding and Marine engineering manufacturing as its main business, shipping leasing, trade logistics and real estate as its supplement. The company&#39;s history can be traced back to 1956. It started as a shipbuilding cooperative. After a series of development, such as factory relocation in 1975, stock restructuring in 1999, construction of a new plant across the river in 2005 and listing in 2007, it is now the first Chinese Shipbuilding enterprise listed in Singapore.</p><p>Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Skyrocketed 114.85% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0dc936309aaafacd15252c281e05eae\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>3. Sembcorp Industries (U96)</h2><p>Sembcorp Industries Ltd is a Singapore-based energy and urban solutions provider. The Company delivers solutions that support the energy transition and sustainable development. It has four segments. Renewables segment’s principal activities are the provision of electricity from solar and wind resources, energy storage, trading of Energy Attribute Certificates, as well as provision of system services that support integration of renewables into grid. Integrated Urban Solutions segment supports sustainable development through its suite of urban, water, as well as waste and waste-to-resource solutions. Conventional Energy segment’s principal activities include the sale of energy molecules, including natural gas, steam and electricity from a diversity of fossil fuels, such as natural gas and coal. Other Businesses and Corporate segment comprise businesses mainly relating to specialized construction, minting, its captive insurance and financial services, as well as corporate costs.</p><p>Sembcorp Industries shares leaped 72.89% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2571b24bec172251a666c94bd9aba9aa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>4. Sembcorp Marine (S51)</h2><p>Sembcorp Marine Ltd provides innovative engineering solutions to the global offshore, marine and energy industries. Headquartered in Singapore, the Group has close to 60 years of track record in the design and construction of rigs, floaters, offshore platforms and specialised vessels, as well as in the repair, upgrading and conversion of different ship types. Sembcorp Marine’s solutions focus on the following areas: Renewables, Process, Gas, Ocean Living and Advanced Drilling Rigs.</p><p>Sembcorp Marine shares surged 68.29% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6654813b0e0fc64ac64977a35c2a60ff\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>5. Keppel Corp (BN4)</h2><p>Keppel Corporation Limited is an investment holding and management company. The Company&#39;s segments include Offshore &amp; Marine (O&amp;M), Infrastructure &amp; Others, Urban Development, Connectivity, Asset Management and Corporate &amp; Others. The Keppel Group of Companies includes Keppel Offshore and Marine, Keppel Integrated Engineering, Keppel Energy, Keppel Telecommunications and Transportation, K-Green Trust, Keppel Land and K-REIT Asia, among others.</p><p>Keppel Corporation shares jumped 49.6% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d70ee9d222ad7bd02b28bd661b784e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>6. Jardine C&amp;C (C07)</h2><p>Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JC&amp;C) is the investment holding company of the Jardine Matheson Group in Southeast Asia. JC&amp;C seeks to grow alongside Southeast Asia’s urbanisation and emerging consumer class by investing in market-leading businesses. JC&amp;C has a significant automotive presence in the region including Astra and Tunas Ridean in Indonesia, THACO Corporation in Vietnam, as well as the Cycle &amp; Carriage businesses in Singapore, Malaysia and Myanmar. </p><p>Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage shares jumped 44.69% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961586a8dae3e814b3f5dc139115354c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>7. Genting Sing (G13)</h2><p>Genting Singapore is a constituent stock of the Straits Times Index and is one of the largest companies in Singapore by market capitalisation. The principal activities of Genting Singapore and its subsidiaries are in the development, management and operation of integrated resort destinations including gaming, hospitality, MICE, leisure and entertainment facilities. Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa in Singapore, offering a casino, S.E.A. Aquarium, Adventure Cove Waterpark, Universal Studios Singapore theme park, hotels, MICE facilities, celebrity chef restaurants and specialty retail outlets.</p><p>Genting Singapore shares gained 26.32% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa55b18e98a69f03004c2681dac3ef33\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>8. City Developments (C09)</h2><p>Incorporated in 1963, City Developments Ltd is a leading residential developer. CDL has built over 15,000 fine homes since 1963. It is also one of Singapore&#39;s biggest commercial landlords with more than 30 prime commercial buildings. With a stable of 101hotels, the CDL Group is a leading hotel owner and operator. Its portfolio includes the Millennium, Copthorne and Kingsgate chains of hotels. Operating in 18 countries, CDL has 7 companies listed on stock exchanges in Singapore, London, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Manila.</p><p>City Developments shares advanced 23.87% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be3d6c0e4a74416ae2d9a1a4dc94b83\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>9. Pacific Century (P15)</h2><p>Pacific Century Regional Developments Limited is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company has interests in telecommunications, media, information technology (IT) solutions, logistics and property development and investments in the Asia-Pacific region. The Company&#39;s primary holdings include PCCW Limited and Pacific Century Insurance Holdings Limited, both of which are listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.</p><p>Pacific Century shares added 21.7% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/626b8cfbc54b5bf657275f3f2752b86a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>10. UOB (U11)</h2><p>United Overseas Bank Limited, often known as UOB, is a Singaporean multinational banking corporation headquartered in Singapore, with branches mostly found in most Southeast Asian countries. Through a series of acquisitions, it is now a leading bank in Singapore with banking subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Today, the UOB Group has a network of 502 offices in 18 countries and territories in Asia-Pacific, Western Europe and North America.</p><p>UOB shares climbed 18.98% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42e8a1ff73ee17218804bf9ef89f6a5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2022 Recap: Which Singapore Stocks Are Winners?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2022 Recap: Which Singapore Stocks Are Winners?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-30 18:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2022 has been a tough year for markets with both the NASDAQ Composite Index and S&amp;P 500 Index falling into abear market.</p><p>Investors may be pleased to know that the STI has held up well this year, chalking up a small gain of 4.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9e3122b459e8b2a819dd2599ac52d6c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As the curtains come down for 2022, it’s time to reflect on the stock market for the year. Which Singapore stocks with a market cap above S$1 billion are winners? Let’s find out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c0dd36e39fe3ee73f32195a657360e0\" tg-width=\"1727\" tg-height=\"2680\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>1. Golden Energy and Resources (AUE)</h2><p>Golden Energy and Resources (Gear) is a Singapore-listed leading energy and resources company in the Asia Pacific region. GEAR principally engages in the exploration, mining, and marketing of metallurgical coal in Australia through its subsidiary Stanmore Coal Limited, and energy coal in Indonesia through its subsidiary PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk.</p><p>Golden Energy and Resources shares soared 170.69% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09f354c155ef7c30f3358df038557f6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>2. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6)</h2><p>Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is a large enterprise group with shipbuilding and Marine engineering manufacturing as its main business, shipping leasing, trade logistics and real estate as its supplement. The company&#39;s history can be traced back to 1956. It started as a shipbuilding cooperative. After a series of development, such as factory relocation in 1975, stock restructuring in 1999, construction of a new plant across the river in 2005 and listing in 2007, it is now the first Chinese Shipbuilding enterprise listed in Singapore.</p><p>Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Skyrocketed 114.85% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0dc936309aaafacd15252c281e05eae\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>3. Sembcorp Industries (U96)</h2><p>Sembcorp Industries Ltd is a Singapore-based energy and urban solutions provider. The Company delivers solutions that support the energy transition and sustainable development. It has four segments. Renewables segment’s principal activities are the provision of electricity from solar and wind resources, energy storage, trading of Energy Attribute Certificates, as well as provision of system services that support integration of renewables into grid. Integrated Urban Solutions segment supports sustainable development through its suite of urban, water, as well as waste and waste-to-resource solutions. Conventional Energy segment’s principal activities include the sale of energy molecules, including natural gas, steam and electricity from a diversity of fossil fuels, such as natural gas and coal. Other Businesses and Corporate segment comprise businesses mainly relating to specialized construction, minting, its captive insurance and financial services, as well as corporate costs.</p><p>Sembcorp Industries shares leaped 72.89% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2571b24bec172251a666c94bd9aba9aa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>4. Sembcorp Marine (S51)</h2><p>Sembcorp Marine Ltd provides innovative engineering solutions to the global offshore, marine and energy industries. Headquartered in Singapore, the Group has close to 60 years of track record in the design and construction of rigs, floaters, offshore platforms and specialised vessels, as well as in the repair, upgrading and conversion of different ship types. Sembcorp Marine’s solutions focus on the following areas: Renewables, Process, Gas, Ocean Living and Advanced Drilling Rigs.</p><p>Sembcorp Marine shares surged 68.29% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6654813b0e0fc64ac64977a35c2a60ff\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>5. Keppel Corp (BN4)</h2><p>Keppel Corporation Limited is an investment holding and management company. The Company&#39;s segments include Offshore &amp; Marine (O&amp;M), Infrastructure &amp; Others, Urban Development, Connectivity, Asset Management and Corporate &amp; Others. The Keppel Group of Companies includes Keppel Offshore and Marine, Keppel Integrated Engineering, Keppel Energy, Keppel Telecommunications and Transportation, K-Green Trust, Keppel Land and K-REIT Asia, among others.</p><p>Keppel Corporation shares jumped 49.6% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d70ee9d222ad7bd02b28bd661b784e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>6. Jardine C&amp;C (C07)</h2><p>Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JC&amp;C) is the investment holding company of the Jardine Matheson Group in Southeast Asia. JC&amp;C seeks to grow alongside Southeast Asia’s urbanisation and emerging consumer class by investing in market-leading businesses. JC&amp;C has a significant automotive presence in the region including Astra and Tunas Ridean in Indonesia, THACO Corporation in Vietnam, as well as the Cycle &amp; Carriage businesses in Singapore, Malaysia and Myanmar. </p><p>Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage shares jumped 44.69% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/961586a8dae3e814b3f5dc139115354c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>7. Genting Sing (G13)</h2><p>Genting Singapore is a constituent stock of the Straits Times Index and is one of the largest companies in Singapore by market capitalisation. The principal activities of Genting Singapore and its subsidiaries are in the development, management and operation of integrated resort destinations including gaming, hospitality, MICE, leisure and entertainment facilities. Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa in Singapore, offering a casino, S.E.A. Aquarium, Adventure Cove Waterpark, Universal Studios Singapore theme park, hotels, MICE facilities, celebrity chef restaurants and specialty retail outlets.</p><p>Genting Singapore shares gained 26.32% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa55b18e98a69f03004c2681dac3ef33\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>8. City Developments (C09)</h2><p>Incorporated in 1963, City Developments Ltd is a leading residential developer. CDL has built over 15,000 fine homes since 1963. It is also one of Singapore&#39;s biggest commercial landlords with more than 30 prime commercial buildings. With a stable of 101hotels, the CDL Group is a leading hotel owner and operator. Its portfolio includes the Millennium, Copthorne and Kingsgate chains of hotels. Operating in 18 countries, CDL has 7 companies listed on stock exchanges in Singapore, London, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Manila.</p><p>City Developments shares advanced 23.87% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be3d6c0e4a74416ae2d9a1a4dc94b83\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>9. Pacific Century (P15)</h2><p>Pacific Century Regional Developments Limited is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company has interests in telecommunications, media, information technology (IT) solutions, logistics and property development and investments in the Asia-Pacific region. The Company&#39;s primary holdings include PCCW Limited and Pacific Century Insurance Holdings Limited, both of which are listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.</p><p>Pacific Century shares added 21.7% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/626b8cfbc54b5bf657275f3f2752b86a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>10. UOB (U11)</h2><p>United Overseas Bank Limited, often known as UOB, is a Singaporean multinational banking corporation headquartered in Singapore, with branches mostly found in most Southeast Asian countries. Through a series of acquisitions, it is now a leading bank in Singapore with banking subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Today, the UOB Group has a network of 502 offices in 18 countries and territories in Asia-Pacific, Western Europe and North America.</p><p>UOB shares climbed 18.98% in 2022.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42e8a1ff73ee17218804bf9ef89f6a5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BN4.SI":"吉宝有限公司","G13.SI":"云顶新加坡","C07.SI":"怡和合发","STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数","U11.SI":"大华银行","U96.SI":"胜科工业","P15.SI":"盈科亚洲拓展","C09.SI":"城市发展","S51.SI":"海庭","BS6.SI":"扬子江船业"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131331146","content_text":"2022 has been a tough year for markets with both the NASDAQ Composite Index and S&P 500 Index falling into abear market.Investors may be pleased to know that the STI has held up well this year, chalking up a small gain of 4.1%.As the curtains come down for 2022, it’s time to reflect on the stock market for the year. Which Singapore stocks with a market cap above S$1 billion are winners? Let’s find out.1. Golden Energy and Resources (AUE)Golden Energy and Resources (Gear) is a Singapore-listed leading energy and resources company in the Asia Pacific region. GEAR principally engages in the exploration, mining, and marketing of metallurgical coal in Australia through its subsidiary Stanmore Coal Limited, and energy coal in Indonesia through its subsidiary PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk.Golden Energy and Resources shares soared 170.69% in 2022.2. Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6)Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is a large enterprise group with shipbuilding and Marine engineering manufacturing as its main business, shipping leasing, trade logistics and real estate as its supplement. The company's history can be traced back to 1956. It started as a shipbuilding cooperative. After a series of development, such as factory relocation in 1975, stock restructuring in 1999, construction of a new plant across the river in 2005 and listing in 2007, it is now the first Chinese Shipbuilding enterprise listed in Singapore.Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Skyrocketed 114.85% in 2022.3. Sembcorp Industries (U96)Sembcorp Industries Ltd is a Singapore-based energy and urban solutions provider. The Company delivers solutions that support the energy transition and sustainable development. It has four segments. Renewables segment’s principal activities are the provision of electricity from solar and wind resources, energy storage, trading of Energy Attribute Certificates, as well as provision of system services that support integration of renewables into grid. Integrated Urban Solutions segment supports sustainable development through its suite of urban, water, as well as waste and waste-to-resource solutions. Conventional Energy segment’s principal activities include the sale of energy molecules, including natural gas, steam and electricity from a diversity of fossil fuels, such as natural gas and coal. Other Businesses and Corporate segment comprise businesses mainly relating to specialized construction, minting, its captive insurance and financial services, as well as corporate costs.Sembcorp Industries shares leaped 72.89% in 2022.4. Sembcorp Marine (S51)Sembcorp Marine Ltd provides innovative engineering solutions to the global offshore, marine and energy industries. Headquartered in Singapore, the Group has close to 60 years of track record in the design and construction of rigs, floaters, offshore platforms and specialised vessels, as well as in the repair, upgrading and conversion of different ship types. Sembcorp Marine’s solutions focus on the following areas: Renewables, Process, Gas, Ocean Living and Advanced Drilling Rigs.Sembcorp Marine shares surged 68.29% in 2022.5. Keppel Corp (BN4)Keppel Corporation Limited is an investment holding and management company. The Company's segments include Offshore & Marine (O&M), Infrastructure & Others, Urban Development, Connectivity, Asset Management and Corporate & Others. The Keppel Group of Companies includes Keppel Offshore and Marine, Keppel Integrated Engineering, Keppel Energy, Keppel Telecommunications and Transportation, K-Green Trust, Keppel Land and K-REIT Asia, among others.Keppel Corporation shares jumped 49.6% in 2022.6. Jardine C&C (C07)Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JC&C) is the investment holding company of the Jardine Matheson Group in Southeast Asia. JC&C seeks to grow alongside Southeast Asia’s urbanisation and emerging consumer class by investing in market-leading businesses. JC&C has a significant automotive presence in the region including Astra and Tunas Ridean in Indonesia, THACO Corporation in Vietnam, as well as the Cycle & Carriage businesses in Singapore, Malaysia and Myanmar. Jardine Cycle & Carriage shares jumped 44.69% in 2022.7. Genting Sing (G13)Genting Singapore is a constituent stock of the Straits Times Index and is one of the largest companies in Singapore by market capitalisation. The principal activities of Genting Singapore and its subsidiaries are in the development, management and operation of integrated resort destinations including gaming, hospitality, MICE, leisure and entertainment facilities. Genting Singapore owns Resorts World Sentosa in Singapore, offering a casino, S.E.A. Aquarium, Adventure Cove Waterpark, Universal Studios Singapore theme park, hotels, MICE facilities, celebrity chef restaurants and specialty retail outlets.Genting Singapore shares gained 26.32% in 2022.8. City Developments (C09)Incorporated in 1963, City Developments Ltd is a leading residential developer. CDL has built over 15,000 fine homes since 1963. It is also one of Singapore's biggest commercial landlords with more than 30 prime commercial buildings. With a stable of 101hotels, the CDL Group is a leading hotel owner and operator. Its portfolio includes the Millennium, Copthorne and Kingsgate chains of hotels. Operating in 18 countries, CDL has 7 companies listed on stock exchanges in Singapore, London, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, New Zealand and Manila.City Developments shares advanced 23.87% in 2022.9. Pacific Century (P15)Pacific Century Regional Developments Limited is a Singapore-based investment holding company. The Company has interests in telecommunications, media, information technology (IT) solutions, logistics and property development and investments in the Asia-Pacific region. The Company's primary holdings include PCCW Limited and Pacific Century Insurance Holdings Limited, both of which are listed on The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.Pacific Century shares added 21.7% in 2022.10. UOB (U11)United Overseas Bank Limited, often known as UOB, is a Singaporean multinational banking corporation headquartered in Singapore, with branches mostly found in most Southeast Asian countries. Through a series of acquisitions, it is now a leading bank in Singapore with banking subsidiaries in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Today, the UOB Group has a network of 502 offices in 18 countries and territories in Asia-Pacific, Western Europe and North America.UOB shares climbed 18.98% in 2022.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929015018,"gmtCreate":1670561131335,"gmtModify":1676538394444,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929015018","repostId":"2289441363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2289441363","pubTimestamp":1670557802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2289441363?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-09 11:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Tech Growth Stocks With More Potential Than Any Cryptocurrency","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289441363","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Even though tech stocks are deep in bear market territory, they're still a better play than crypto.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>As bad as the stock market is this year, cryptocurrencies have been worse. In fact, every asset class is doing better than crypto, and you can just about throw a dart at a list of stocks these days and do better than your favorite cryptocurrency token.</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean stocks have a smooth ride ahead, as many believe we&#39;re heading into a recession early next year. Growth stocks, which led the <b>Nasdaq 100</b> on a 13-year-long bull market, have lost nearly 30% in 2022, and a potential sharp economic downturn doesn&#39;t bode well for a reversal.</p><p>Some businesses, however, are resilient regardless, and buying them now may reward patient investors with substantial wealth over the long run. The following trio of stocks is an example of companies with far more potential than any cryptocurrency.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e0f6cb765d973f7f515e7452481c579\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>Zscaler</h2><p>Recession fears are hurting corporate spending. Cloud-based capital projects are slowing, hurting cloud and software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks, generally, but cybersecurity-expert <b>Zscaler</b> (ZS -1.49%), in particular.</p><p>The company&#39;s stock tumbled hard the other day after Zscaler reported fiscal first-quarter revenue, earnings, and billings that beat analyst expectations. That&#39;s because it gave a forecast that, while still better than Wall Street forecasts, grew at a significantly lower rate than previously.</p><p>While there are spending headwinds, demand for Zscaler&#39;s business remains robust. The company is seeing its sales cycle &#34;elongating&#34; -- stretching out over wider periods -- but only because the size of the deals it&#39;s closing are getting bigger. That requires more time to scrutinize and review the contracts.</p><p>Zscaler ended the quarter with over 340 customers that have $1 million or more in annual recovering revenue with it -- a 55% increase from last year. All of the company&#39;s customers have been impacted by macroeconomic events, but the low end of its client base actually ended better off than the upper end. As a result, Zscaler sees more opportunities to help customers adopt more products, which will continue to increase its deal size.</p><p>Zscaler stock is down 57% over the past year, but with the market analysts at Gartner predicting global cybersecurity spending to hit $262 billion by 2026, there&#39;s a substantial runway for future growth in this stock.</p><h2>AT&amp;T</h2><p><b>AT&amp;T</b>&#39;s (T 0.68%) narrow focus on its telecom operations to the exclusion of virtually anything else is paying off for investors. It continues to add more customers, while rivals like <b>Verizon</b> are shedding them as the rollout of 5G networks and fiber-optic wired broadband is providing the biggest catalyst for future growth.</p><p>The telecom giant is well on its way to achieving its goal of reaching over 30 million locations, including businesses, by the end of 2025 with its fiber network, and is doing so without being overly promotional. At a recent analyst conference, AT&amp;T said that as of the end of the third quarter, it could serve 18.5 million consumer locations and approximately 3 million business locations in more than 100 metro areas.</p><p>COO Jeff McElfresh said AT&amp;T refrained from being &#34;aggressive&#34; with deals on Black Friday to attract customers and has not &#34;been the most aggressive in the market for quite some time.&#34;</p><p>That bodes well for profitability and growing free cash flow (FCF), which the company maintains should hit $14 billion this year. That&#39;s notable because AT&amp;T&#39;s stock is cheap. The telecom trades for seven times trailing earnings and next year&#39;s estimates, 1.1 times sales, and a bargain-basement three times the FCF it produces.</p><p>The company is longer a Dividend Aristocrat after having slashed its payout in half following the spinoff and merger of its entertainment business into <b>Warner Bros Discovery</b> (WBD 1.23%). The dividend, however, still yields a lucrative 5.8% annually. The company&#39;s payout ratio is just 41%, so the dividend is much safer now, with room for future growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/515f1a7540ca000e5cf0b96ca0dc934d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>Taiwan Semiconductor</h2><p><b>Taiwan Semiconductor</b> (TSM -0.40%) is the world&#39;s largest semiconductor foundry that manufactures integrated circuits based on designs provided by its clients. Despite the vaunted chip shortage that&#39;s still impacting the industry today, Taiwan Semi has not felt the effects as much as its rivals because its customer base is some of the industry&#39;s biggest tech companies, and its long-term demand remains &#34;firmly in place.&#34;</p><p>Demand is so strong, in fact, that the company began construction of a $12 billion 5-nanometer chip fabrication plant in Arizona last year and recently said it would be building a second factory in the Grand Canyon State. Due to many of its customers being U.S.-based businesses, these facilities should strengthen its ability to meet demand.</p><p>The long-term growth prospects for Taiwan Semiconductor attracted the attention of Warren Buffett, whose <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> established a 60 million share, $4.8 billion stake in the chipmaker.</p><p>TSM is also offering a discount valuation, going for 13 times trailing and estimated earnings. At just 0.6 times its earnings growth rate, the semiconductor stock represents a better opportunity than any cryptocurrency.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Tech Growth Stocks With More Potential Than Any Cryptocurrency</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Tech Growth Stocks With More Potential Than Any Cryptocurrency\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-09 11:50 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/08/3-tech-stocks-more-promising-than-any-crypto/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As bad as the stock market is this year, cryptocurrencies have been worse. In fact, every asset class is doing better than crypto, and you can just about throw a dart at a list of stocks these days ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/08/3-tech-stocks-more-promising-than-any-crypto/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","T":"美国电话电报","ZS":"Zscaler Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/12/08/3-tech-stocks-more-promising-than-any-crypto/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289441363","content_text":"As bad as the stock market is this year, cryptocurrencies have been worse. In fact, every asset class is doing better than crypto, and you can just about throw a dart at a list of stocks these days and do better than your favorite cryptocurrency token.But that doesn't mean stocks have a smooth ride ahead, as many believe we're heading into a recession early next year. Growth stocks, which led the Nasdaq 100 on a 13-year-long bull market, have lost nearly 30% in 2022, and a potential sharp economic downturn doesn't bode well for a reversal.Some businesses, however, are resilient regardless, and buying them now may reward patient investors with substantial wealth over the long run. The following trio of stocks is an example of companies with far more potential than any cryptocurrency.Image source: Getty Images.ZscalerRecession fears are hurting corporate spending. Cloud-based capital projects are slowing, hurting cloud and software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks, generally, but cybersecurity-expert Zscaler (ZS -1.49%), in particular.The company's stock tumbled hard the other day after Zscaler reported fiscal first-quarter revenue, earnings, and billings that beat analyst expectations. That's because it gave a forecast that, while still better than Wall Street forecasts, grew at a significantly lower rate than previously.While there are spending headwinds, demand for Zscaler's business remains robust. The company is seeing its sales cycle \"elongating\" -- stretching out over wider periods -- but only because the size of the deals it's closing are getting bigger. That requires more time to scrutinize and review the contracts.Zscaler ended the quarter with over 340 customers that have $1 million or more in annual recovering revenue with it -- a 55% increase from last year. All of the company's customers have been impacted by macroeconomic events, but the low end of its client base actually ended better off than the upper end. As a result, Zscaler sees more opportunities to help customers adopt more products, which will continue to increase its deal size.Zscaler stock is down 57% over the past year, but with the market analysts at Gartner predicting global cybersecurity spending to hit $262 billion by 2026, there's a substantial runway for future growth in this stock.AT&TAT&T's (T 0.68%) narrow focus on its telecom operations to the exclusion of virtually anything else is paying off for investors. It continues to add more customers, while rivals like Verizon are shedding them as the rollout of 5G networks and fiber-optic wired broadband is providing the biggest catalyst for future growth.The telecom giant is well on its way to achieving its goal of reaching over 30 million locations, including businesses, by the end of 2025 with its fiber network, and is doing so without being overly promotional. At a recent analyst conference, AT&T said that as of the end of the third quarter, it could serve 18.5 million consumer locations and approximately 3 million business locations in more than 100 metro areas.COO Jeff McElfresh said AT&T refrained from being \"aggressive\" with deals on Black Friday to attract customers and has not \"been the most aggressive in the market for quite some time.\"That bodes well for profitability and growing free cash flow (FCF), which the company maintains should hit $14 billion this year. That's notable because AT&T's stock is cheap. The telecom trades for seven times trailing earnings and next year's estimates, 1.1 times sales, and a bargain-basement three times the FCF it produces.The company is longer a Dividend Aristocrat after having slashed its payout in half following the spinoff and merger of its entertainment business into Warner Bros Discovery (WBD 1.23%). The dividend, however, still yields a lucrative 5.8% annually. The company's payout ratio is just 41%, so the dividend is much safer now, with room for future growth.Image source: Getty Images.Taiwan SemiconductorTaiwan Semiconductor (TSM -0.40%) is the world's largest semiconductor foundry that manufactures integrated circuits based on designs provided by its clients. Despite the vaunted chip shortage that's still impacting the industry today, Taiwan Semi has not felt the effects as much as its rivals because its customer base is some of the industry's biggest tech companies, and its long-term demand remains \"firmly in place.\"Demand is so strong, in fact, that the company began construction of a $12 billion 5-nanometer chip fabrication plant in Arizona last year and recently said it would be building a second factory in the Grand Canyon State. Due to many of its customers being U.S.-based businesses, these facilities should strengthen its ability to meet demand.The long-term growth prospects for Taiwan Semiconductor attracted the attention of Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway established a 60 million share, $4.8 billion stake in the chipmaker.TSM is also offering a discount valuation, going for 13 times trailing and estimated earnings. At just 0.6 times its earnings growth rate, the semiconductor stock represents a better opportunity than any cryptocurrency.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961451418,"gmtCreate":1669031442735,"gmtModify":1676538141955,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961451418","repostId":"2284891180","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284891180","pubTimestamp":1669017887,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2284891180?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-21 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284891180","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has som","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Stocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.</li><li>I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.</li><li>The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.</li><li>In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fe2c4feaba1c36352e0d9664de24f3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><h2>“Hopium” is back again</h2><p>It doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8830de04b6cb31c02f372c43e213054\" tg-width=\"1275\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>CPI &amp; PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.</p><p>On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.</p><p>I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.</p><p>The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&amp;P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.</p><p>In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&amp;P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&amp;P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair value<i>should</i> be. There are many more factors at play.</p><p>After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.</p><h2>Searching for historical bottoms</h2><p>Usually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8447327903f174e95c5886662c788efe\" tg-width=\"1278\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Fed Funds &amp; SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.</p><p>When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in only<i>after</i> the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.</p><p>In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated <i>because of it</i>. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.</p><p>During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93089c2daa2b2a46fe64342b4a9c84db\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"659\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Taylor-Rule (Author)</span></p><p>According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,<i>and</i> (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.</p><p>During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.</p><p>Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.</p><h2>Trying to time the pivot?</h2><p>We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.</p><p>Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?</p><p>That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:</p><h3>1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt with</h3><p>During the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.</p><h3>2. Unemployment is too low</h3><p>Without the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.</p><p>Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.</p><h3>3. Bad news will be bad news again</h3><p>I think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.</p><p>I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.</p><p>Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecc783a2e50ff641e9c70d6bfcb9101\" tg-width=\"1169\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>M2 &amp; US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)</span></p><p>In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.</p><h3>4. A stock-market rally is bearish</h3><p>Something has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.</p><h2>Summary</h2><p>I believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&amp;P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.</p><p><i>This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPX: A Rallying Stock Market Is Bearish\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-21 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559201-spx-a-rallying-stock-market-is-bearish","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284891180","content_text":"SummaryStocks rallied viciously due to lower inflation data.I believe this bear market rally has some more room to go, but I wouldn’t bet on it.The root cause of falling inflation isn’t bullish for stocks.In 2023, bad news will be bad news again, and a rallying stock market is bearish.blewisphotography/iStock via Getty Images“Hopium” is back againIt doesn’t take much for investors to be optimistic about the markets again. Last week the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied ~6%, and the Nasdaq ~8% after the inflation print came in lower than expected at 7.7% YoY or 0.4% MoM. The PPI data should come in lower too, reflecting the symptoms of a slowing economy and weakening consumer spending.CPI & PPI YoY Percentage Change (Author Excel with Data from fred.stlouisfed.org)So far, so unsurprising – not for the market, though. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq made the bulk of their gains last week right after the CPI report was published. Markets played the pivot book: The Dollar (DXY) withdrew sharply as Yields collapsed, and assets appreciated. The market priced in a higher probability of relative monetary easing of the Federal Reserve due to lower-than-expected inflation. Naturally, the most interest-rate sensitive assets appreciated the most, hence the outperformance of the Nasdaq. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose over 10% on that day. Although that gain has to be taken with a caveat because the CPI print followed the day that FTX went bankrupt and Crypto assets collapsed. Therefore, a rebound seemed natural.On Thursday, the Nasdaq (NDX) had its best trading day since April 2020. I don’t believe a new bull market has started, however. Huge upswings and short squeezes are characteristic of bear market rallies. The underlying macroeconomic circumstances have not changed enough to put an end to this bear market. I believe this rally is one of the bigger ones, like the bear market rally starting in June 2022. I believe the market can feed off of big short exposure and the narrative that inflation has finally peaked.I also believe inflation has peaked, as I cannot imagine that the economy will be able to healthily operate with the immense burden of the sharply risen cost of capital. The previously raised interest rates start to feed into the economy gradually. As Jerome Powell always reminds us: “Monetary Policy works with long and variable lags.” That counts for monetary easing and monetary tightening. Additionally, the basis effect should help keep the YoY inflation rate comparatively low.The financial stress that the economy will have to endure during the first half of 2023 seems too high to be bullish at the current valuation level. While analysts have lowered their expectations for 2023 earnings, they are still around ~$220 for the S&P 500 (0% growth), which currently reflects a P/E FWD of 18x. Given the macroeconomic and geopolitical circumstances I believe that is still way too high.In the event of a recession, which is my base case, earnings should fall and not only stay flat for 2023. Assuming the earnings multiple for the S&P 500 goes back to its mean of 16x and earnings depreciate by 10% in 2023 (basically guaranteed if a real recession hits), the fair value of the S&P should be around 3,200 points. Of course, the P/E FWD ratio estimate is only for constructing a framework about where the fair valueshould be. There are many more factors at play.After all, the alternative to equities is an investment in basically risk-free US government bonds, which now have moved into the positive real-rate territory across the yield curve. During the last 20 years, expansive monetary policy has moved even the most risk-averse investors into the equity space. Now that risk-free rates have risen, these risk-averse players are attracted by the risk-free yield, especially when compared to equity premiums. This is why I believe that the current drawdown in equities only accounts for the yield rise and not for earnings depreciation. I make the speculation of largely not being invested while waiting until the other shoe drops, most likely in H1/2023.Searching for historical bottomsUsually, the market is forward-looking and doesn’t reflect the economy. However, historically trying to front-run the pivot didn’t work:Fed Funds & SP500 (Excel from Author using data from fred.stlouisfed.org)That’s because of the circumstances of the previous pivot points.When the Federal Reserve raised rates during the 2000’s it was because the economy was overheating, and the labor market was tight. While rates were rising, the stock market appreciated because of strong fundamentals (rising GDP). After some time, the monetary tightening worked itself into the economy, and the market fundamentals started to worsen. After a period of plateauing rates, the stock market tumbled, and the Federal Reserve was quick to cut rates. While the Federal Reserve was cutting rates the stock market fell even further. Historically, the bottom of the stock market was in onlyafter the Federal Reserve had already cut rates significantly and the liquidity cycle started to move upwards again.In 2022, however, we have a different situation. The Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy, and the stock market depreciated because of it. That fundamental difference exists because of inflation.During the last 40 years, the overarching trend of inflation was down. Especially in the last 20 years, global Central Banks struggled to create inflation with loose monetary policy. If the economy and the financial markets start to struggle while there is no concern about material inflation or even fear of deflation, then the playbook of Central Banks becomes very easy: stimulate the economy to raise inflation and decrease unemployment.Taylor-Rule (Author)According to the Taylor Rule, the Federal Reserve had to lower interest rates (1-h) so often in the past because inflation was below the long-term inflation rate goal,and (1-g) GDP was also below the long-term production potential. Both parts of the formula demanded monetary easing.During 2020-2022 the macroeconomic circumstances changed 180 degrees. Because of several shortages, and most importantly massive fiscal stimulus, which was fully financed by expansive monetary policy, demand exploded while goods were scarce. After inflation came in hot quarter after quarter, the Federal Reserve had to raise rates into a falling stock market for the first time in 20+ years.Because of the traditionally backward-looking indicators of Central Banks (i.e. unemployment), the economy appeared red hot while inflation was clearly above the 2% target. These two macroeconomic circumstances basically guaranteed monetary tightening. A falling stock market is appreciated by the Federal Reserve because it resembles tightening financial conditions. Tightening financial conditions should decrease inflation and raise unemployment – the goals of the central bank policy during times like these.Trying to time the pivot?We are in a different situation now, though. Inflation is still way above the 2% target. But the slowdown of the global economy is getting more and more clear by the day. And many of the bubbles fueled by monetary excesses [i.e. Meme-Tech-stocks like Peleton (PTON), Palantir (PLTR), Nikola (NKLA), or Crypto (BTC) / (ETH)] have deflated 80-90% from their highs.Many investors ask themselves now: If inflation has peaked and the economy is materially slowing down, why not buy the dip in risk assets? Won’t the Fed Put be back after inflation comes down MoM?That sounds like an attractive argument. Hence, I believe the current rally could sustain for the remainder of 2022. There are finally positive news for the stock market to rally. Ultimately, however, I believe the current stock price action is nothing more than a rather violent bear market rally because of the following reasons:1. The Federal Reserve wants to make sure that inflation is dealt withDuring the speculation mania that followed the March 2020 Covid crash, any doubt about valuation levels was quickly dismissed with the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra. And speculators were right back then. If the liquidity cycle makes a big upswing, you don’t want to be caught off guard shorting stocks because of their stretched valuations. Tesla (TSLA) perma bears painfully had to learn that. But the same counts for when the liquidity cycle is in a downturn and investors are recklessly holding on to their overvalued tech stocks. Fighting the Fed in 2022 means staying invested in long-duration, high-growth, high-valuation equities. Just last week, Powell reiterated the Federal Reserve’s stance to tighten policy until something breaks. Powell seemed confident that it would be easier to put the economy into recession and then rescue it after they overtighten financial conditions. After all, nothing kills inflation like a recession.2. Unemployment is too lowWithout the labor market breaking and unemployment sharply rising, there is no reason for global Central Banks to meaningfully change the direction of their policy to an accommodative level. During the FOMC meeting, Powell made it clear that rates will likely stay higher for longer than the market currently expects. The Federal Reserve has given up on its attempt of engineering a “softish landing”. Inflation becoming entrenched in the economy is their worst fear, and with the low levels of unemployment, the Central Bank doesn’t have to balance its efforts to slow down inflation. Even after the rate hikes are over, quantitative tightening will worsen financial conditions and be a great hurdle for the stock market.Some layoffs have already started. To my belief, tech companies will be able to raise productivity by removing some unnecessary workforce from recent years, where revenue growth was highly monetarily valued, but profitability wasn’t. Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), and Twitter (TWTR) have already started. Alphabet (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) are likely to follow. If high-paid workers lose their steady income stream, they are likely to sell off some of their accumulated assets in order to have a safety cushion to rely upon. It would be typical that this selling coincides with retail capitulation and a final rise in volatility, which usually marks the low of the bear market. I don’t believe we’re at the end yet, but I don’t want to dismiss the rather orderly decline of stock prices in 2022.3. Bad news will be bad news againI think 2023 will be about the labor market and the effects of higher rates for the housing market and less about the Federal Reserve monetary policy. After all, the bulk of the rate hikes are done, and now it is about how long they can stay this elevated. That’s not as interesting for the stock market as hiking 50-75 basis points per month, at least in terms of forward pricing. As seen last week, the current market is still heavily focused on inflation and the resulting change of the Federal Reserve policy. That’s why bad news about an economic slowdown were bullish. Inflation expectations would decrease, and as a function of that, the Federal Reserve was expected to be less tight.I don’t expect the Federal Reserve to immediately cut rates if the labor market eases. Because of that consistency and resilience to lower rates, I think that bad news will be bad news again in 2023. The housing market should come under pressure too, as more and more mortgages have to be refinanced. As of now, the illiquidity of the housing market makes it seem somewhat resilient. But I don’t believe that resiliency will hold in 2023 if rates stay elevated.Hiking interest rates for fewer percentage points is less bearish but still not bullish, given how elevated rates already are. The liquidity cycle is still in a downturn, albeit less quickly, and Quantitative Tightening still continues linearly. Until now, much of the Quantitative Tightening got neutralized by a rundown of the US Treasury General account:M2 & US Treasury General Account (fred.stlouisfed.org)In 2023, the softening impact of decreasing the treasury account in line with Quantitative Easing will still be possible for some time, but not forever. The likelihood of excessive fiscal policy stimulating the economy has decreased too, given the results of the US midterm elections.4. A stock-market rally is bearishSomething has to break for the Fed to pivot. If the market reaches previous highs, it only increases the probability that Central banks tighten monetary policy even further. That’s because financial conditions usually ease during stock market rallies. Bond yields usually fall because the market expects accommodative monetary policy, which makes it possible for the Federal Reserve to conduct more Quantitative Tightening because investors buy them, trying to front-run a pivot. To me that seems self-defeating.SummaryI believe that in 2023, bad news will be bad news again. Plunging earnings and layoffs will ultimately be bearish for the stock market. The Federal Reserve can only pivot if something breaks. The process of “breaking” usually isn’t bullish for the stock market. Bear markets often end with capitulation, but long-only ETF DCA retail still makes their monthly investments in the S&P 500. Unemployment has to rise to turn these inflows into outflows. Bad news will be bad news, and a rallying stock market will be bearish.This article is written by Nikolai Galozi for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":78,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915273781,"gmtCreate":1665060638743,"gmtModify":1676537550832,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915273781","repostId":"2273840514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273840514","pubTimestamp":1665044703,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2273840514?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-06 16:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273840514","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Return:The premium collected  for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we'd have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be hi","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>A 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.</li><li>This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.</li><li>Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f3cb26254a710c00fc93610b6f816b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>jetcityimage</span></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lost nearly 10% of its stock price recently after deliveries underwhelmed as Seeking Alpha has covered here. These are strange times for the stock market as companies that are worth a Trillion lose in oneday what most companies are not even worth in their lifetime. Keep in mind, Tesla lost nearly 10% on a day the market rebounded. If the recent sentiment prevails on Tesla (as we are betting), then the next few red days for the market will be much harder for Tesla longs. But, with such pain come opportunities for those who can stomach the wild rides.</p><p>The stock is rebounding a bit in premarket due to the general market mood and the news that Cathy Wood dipped into the sell-off. But we strongly believe the next few days will provide some juicy opportunities for those willing to sell cash-secured puts. Tesla&#39;s recent stock split makes these transactions a lot easier for retail investors. Before the recent 3:1 split, selling a single contract for 100 shares would have required three times the capital to be set aside. Let us use the chain below as an example and see how things look now post-split.</p><h2><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/169ef27872a01b2f4e10b8f2bbb3595a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Option Chain (Think or Swim)</span></p>Key data points</h2><ul><li>Strike Price: $200</li><li>Expiration Date: November 4th, 2022, exactly a month from today.</li><li>Premium: $6/share, for a total of $600.</li></ul><p>In simple words, the put seller collects $600 immediately to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $200 if the stock reaches $200 or below by November 4th, 2022. Bear in mind that time decay is in favor of the option seller, meaning as days go by, the option values decline.</p><h2>What&#39;s the expected return and possible outcomes?</h2><p><b>Return:</b> The premium collected ($600) for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we&#39;d have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be higher (in dollar), but it is common sense that more investors can afford $20,000 compared to those who can afford $60,000.</p><p><i>Outcome #1:</i> If Tesla stays above $200 by the expiration date, the option seller just retains the premium mentioned above. The option seller will not be obligated to buy the shares.</p><p><i>Outcome #2:</i> If Tesla goes below $200 by the expiration date, the option seller will be forced to buy 100 shares at $200, irrespective of where the stock trades at that time. Keeping the premium netted in mind, the average cost, in this case, will be $194 ($200 minus $6).</p><p><i>Outcome #3:</i> As an option seller, one can &#34;buy to close&#34; anytime instead of waiting till the expiration date. That may be appealing to those who have the time and patience to play short-dated options many times over. But we typically let the option expire before choosing another chain (or another stock).</p><p>Outcome #4: We will write in detail about this in a future article, but we wanted to mention this as many readers of the Amazon (AMZN) article pointed out. An option seller can always roll into future dated options. That is, instead of getting out of the game entirely by following one of the first three outcomes above, you can close the current option and initiate a new chain with a different strike/expiration/premium combination as a single transaction. There are risks and advantages to this as we plan to describe later.</p><h2>Why $200 Looks attractive?</h2><ul><li><b>Trend:</b> Apart from being a nice round number, $200 is about 20% below the current market price, a bear market by itself by definition. That is on top of the 36% already lost from highs, making $200 more than 50% off from highs. In our view, that is a compelling enough pullback for a company that still has many growth avenues in front of it.</li><li><b>Valuation:</b> At $200, Tesla will be trading at a PEG ratio of less than 1. This is based on a forward multiple of 46 [$200 divided by forward EPS of $4.32] and the five year expected growth rate of 55%. As avid followers of Growth at Reasonable Price [GARP] would attest, a PEG of less than 1 makes a stock more attractive.</li><li><b>Technical:</b> From a technical standpoint, $200 has historically offered plenty of support to the stock. As shown in the chart below, the stock has bounced off from $200 level at least five times in the last two years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ff7c149c2736d5d318a9f05d5f660af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Chart (Google Charts)</span></p><h2>Many ways to skin the cat</h2><p>If the $200 strike price and the 3% premium return don&#39;t appeal to you and if you are looking for a higher premium return, consider strike price like the one below. In this example, the options seller agrees to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $220 should the stock reach that by November 4th, while collecting a premium of about $11 per share. That&#39;s a much higher return of 5% return in a month, but the risk the seller takes here is that the strike price is just 10% away from the current market price. One more day like yesterday, and you may be obligated to buy the shares. That is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It just depends on what your priority is.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e27902d5809db65325baf7bd85b6e4f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA Chain (Think or Swim)</span></p><h2>Be aware of your risks and choices</h2><p>Once again, please bear in mind that if your primary interest is in getting premiums, selling puts during down-trending markets may not be the best strategy. If the market blood bath continues, your stock may reach the strike price before you blink. However, if your interest is in acquiring the stock should things fall further, this is a wise strategy. The added income through premium does not hurt either. If you already hold at least 100 shares of Tesla, you may want to consider selling covered call if you understand that strategy. This article explains some basics of it.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Tesla is a volatile company. TSLA is a volatile stock. Tesla is led by a volatile man. And the market is volatile these days. That makes it a double-double-whammy. In such cases, we tend to prefer lower strike prices. If we do get assigned Tesla at the $200 strike price, we will be glad to hold it for the long term for the reasons mentioned above. But that&#39;s us. What is your opinion of Tesla here? Do you believe it will still be overvalued buying at $200? Please leave your comments and opinions below.</p><p><i>This article is written by Tradevestor for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Agree To Buy At $200, Get Instant 3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-06 16:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryA 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544869-tesla-agree-to-buy-at-200-get-instant-3-percent","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273840514","content_text":"SummaryA 10% haircut after losing 36% from highs makes Tesla more attractive.This article explains why $200 is attractive to us.Always be aware of your risks when dealing with options. Play safe.jetcityimageTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) lost nearly 10% of its stock price recently after deliveries underwhelmed as Seeking Alpha has covered here. These are strange times for the stock market as companies that are worth a Trillion lose in oneday what most companies are not even worth in their lifetime. Keep in mind, Tesla lost nearly 10% on a day the market rebounded. If the recent sentiment prevails on Tesla (as we are betting), then the next few red days for the market will be much harder for Tesla longs. But, with such pain come opportunities for those who can stomach the wild rides.The stock is rebounding a bit in premarket due to the general market mood and the news that Cathy Wood dipped into the sell-off. But we strongly believe the next few days will provide some juicy opportunities for those willing to sell cash-secured puts. Tesla's recent stock split makes these transactions a lot easier for retail investors. Before the recent 3:1 split, selling a single contract for 100 shares would have required three times the capital to be set aside. Let us use the chain below as an example and see how things look now post-split.TSLA Option Chain (Think or Swim)Key data pointsStrike Price: $200Expiration Date: November 4th, 2022, exactly a month from today.Premium: $6/share, for a total of $600.In simple words, the put seller collects $600 immediately to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $200 if the stock reaches $200 or below by November 4th, 2022. Bear in mind that time decay is in favor of the option seller, meaning as days go by, the option values decline.What's the expected return and possible outcomes?Return: The premium collected ($600) for setting aside $20,000 represents a 3% return for a month. This is a handy return anytime and even more so in the current market environment. At this time, the market assigns at 77.20% probability that Tesla remains above $200 by expiration on November 4th. To reiterate the impact of the recent stock split, the same transaction would have required $60,000 to be set aside as we'd have been talking about a $600 strike price. Granted, the premium returns would be higher (in dollar), but it is common sense that more investors can afford $20,000 compared to those who can afford $60,000.Outcome #1: If Tesla stays above $200 by the expiration date, the option seller just retains the premium mentioned above. The option seller will not be obligated to buy the shares.Outcome #2: If Tesla goes below $200 by the expiration date, the option seller will be forced to buy 100 shares at $200, irrespective of where the stock trades at that time. Keeping the premium netted in mind, the average cost, in this case, will be $194 ($200 minus $6).Outcome #3: As an option seller, one can \"buy to close\" anytime instead of waiting till the expiration date. That may be appealing to those who have the time and patience to play short-dated options many times over. But we typically let the option expire before choosing another chain (or another stock).Outcome #4: We will write in detail about this in a future article, but we wanted to mention this as many readers of the Amazon (AMZN) article pointed out. An option seller can always roll into future dated options. That is, instead of getting out of the game entirely by following one of the first three outcomes above, you can close the current option and initiate a new chain with a different strike/expiration/premium combination as a single transaction. There are risks and advantages to this as we plan to describe later.Why $200 Looks attractive?Trend: Apart from being a nice round number, $200 is about 20% below the current market price, a bear market by itself by definition. That is on top of the 36% already lost from highs, making $200 more than 50% off from highs. In our view, that is a compelling enough pullback for a company that still has many growth avenues in front of it.Valuation: At $200, Tesla will be trading at a PEG ratio of less than 1. This is based on a forward multiple of 46 [$200 divided by forward EPS of $4.32] and the five year expected growth rate of 55%. As avid followers of Growth at Reasonable Price [GARP] would attest, a PEG of less than 1 makes a stock more attractive.Technical: From a technical standpoint, $200 has historically offered plenty of support to the stock. As shown in the chart below, the stock has bounced off from $200 level at least five times in the last two years.TSLA Chart (Google Charts)Many ways to skin the catIf the $200 strike price and the 3% premium return don't appeal to you and if you are looking for a higher premium return, consider strike price like the one below. In this example, the options seller agrees to buy 100 shares of Tesla at $220 should the stock reach that by November 4th, while collecting a premium of about $11 per share. That's a much higher return of 5% return in a month, but the risk the seller takes here is that the strike price is just 10% away from the current market price. One more day like yesterday, and you may be obligated to buy the shares. That is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It just depends on what your priority is.TSLA Chain (Think or Swim)Be aware of your risks and choicesOnce again, please bear in mind that if your primary interest is in getting premiums, selling puts during down-trending markets may not be the best strategy. If the market blood bath continues, your stock may reach the strike price before you blink. However, if your interest is in acquiring the stock should things fall further, this is a wise strategy. The added income through premium does not hurt either. If you already hold at least 100 shares of Tesla, you may want to consider selling covered call if you understand that strategy. This article explains some basics of it.ConclusionTesla is a volatile company. TSLA is a volatile stock. Tesla is led by a volatile man. And the market is volatile these days. That makes it a double-double-whammy. In such cases, we tend to prefer lower strike prices. If we do get assigned Tesla at the $200 strike price, we will be glad to hold it for the long term for the reasons mentioned above. But that's us. What is your opinion of Tesla here? Do you believe it will still be overvalued buying at $200? Please leave your comments and opinions below.This article is written by Tradevestor for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":53,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957009750,"gmtCreate":1676693291771,"gmtModify":1676693295529,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957009750","repostId":"1172500092","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9953337620,"gmtCreate":1673152236861,"gmtModify":1676538793054,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953337620","repostId":"2301720269","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2301720269","pubTimestamp":1673139445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2301720269?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-08 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Signs of Seller Exhaustion Left Stocks Primed for a Big Bounce","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2301720269","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Hedge-fund exposure at five-year low while retail dumps stocksIt extends pattern where positioning o","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Hedge-fund exposure at five-year low while retail dumps stocks</li><li>It extends pattern where positioning overshadows market moves</li></ul><p>A pattern has persisted in stocks the past year. A downdraft steepens, sellers get the selling out of their systems, and the market is left poised for an often-powerful jump.</p><p>Friday’s surge, which spared the S&amp;P 500 from a fifth straight down week, bore all the hallmarks of that routine, coming amid a boatload of evidence that investor risk appetite had been cut to the bone. A measure of equity exposure among hedge fund clients fell to a five-year low, while retail pessimism was also intensifying, according to JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. data.</p><p>Those trends would explain two things. One, last month’s uncharacteristically awful returns, a consequence of across-the-board selling that pushed the S&amp;P 500 to its worst December in four years. And two, Friday’s ebullient reaction to news showing higher-than-forecast payroll additions in the US economy, when seven of the prior eight employment reports spurred losses.</p><p>“If you look at a broad array of sentiment indicators, they universally suggest investors are a lot more cautious than they were a year ago,” said Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. “That could very well be laying the groundwork for another short-term rally, as we seem to get every several months.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/748a5b17c1b5a314e3a001d03db00a55\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Stocks ended the longest streak of weekly declines since last May as the S&amp;P 500 climbed during the holiday-shortened period. The benchmark gauge, which finished 2022 with the worst annual slide since the financial crisis, rose 1.5% over the four days, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced for a second week in three.</p><p>Boom-bust cycles in equities last year generally correlated with changes in institutional and retail positioning. Gains occurred after investors slashed bullish bets, and declines followed buying sprees. The incessant up-down motion made gleaning an economic signal from the market — never an exact science to begin with — particularly futile, with trends in the market proving temporary. Friday’s runup in the S&amp;P 500 also came after a sharp drop in risk-appetites.</p><p>Another major contour of last year’s investment landscape repeated this week: value vastly outperformed growth, with an index tracking cheaper stocks beating that of fast growers by 2 percentage points. One takeaway from that might be a slightly less-dour economic message than has generally been taken from markets as a whole. Growth companies are part of the economy, obviously, but the battering those stocks took was primarily driven by shrinking valuations. Value shares had far less bloat to correct and as a result their relatively tame losses could be framed as a purer and cheerier signal on future activity.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f88b2b88fd40b113313c55bb11021862\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"523\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Sessions when monthly payrolls data were released have not been kind to stocks of late. Among jobs days last year, all but three saw the S&amp;P 500 falling as the economy mostly added more jobs than expected, clearing the path for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as it battled inflation. The ominous pattern, along with the specter of a serious downturn, prompted investors of all stripes to hunker down after a brutal year that saw stocks and Treasuries suffer the worst annual loss in more than a century.</p><p>Hedge funds that make both bullish and bearish equity wagers boosted their short positions in December, with their average leverage falling to the lowest level since 2017, data compiled by JPMorgan’s prime brokerage unit show. A similar trend was on display at Morgan Stanley, where gross leverage among the firm’s hedge fund clients sat near a five-year low.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac23a3270a191c5c5fb0141654adfd45\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Hedge fund leverage. Source: Morgan Stanley</span></p><p>While nonfarm payrolls again beat forecasts in December, traders found comfort in cooling wage gains. The S&amp;P 500 jumped 2.3% for the best reaction to a jobs report in more than two years.</p><p>“Lower weekly hours will bias the real labor income proxy lower, which would imply weaker spending going forward,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research. “This shouldn’t change the Fed outlook much near-term but lowers the odds they need to crush things.”</p><p>The first signs of a rally were enough to lure a few bulls back after a $13 trillion wipeout last year had pros and even once die-hard retail bulls retreating en mass. Individual traders, who bought the dip in early 2022 only to be burned time and again by the yearlong slump, dumped more than $3 billion of shares in the week through Tuesday, the third-biggest selling in the history of JPMorgan’s data.</p><p>While year-end tax selling played a role in the exodus, the heavy outflow also reflected growing bearishness among the crowd, according to Peng Cheng, the firm’s strategist who derived the estimate from public data on exchanges.</p><p>All the defensive posturing likely set the stage for a market bounce, as happened repeatedly during 2022, when prolonged selloffs gave way to rapid snapbacks before the selling resumed. In a year where the S&amp;P 500 lost about one fifth of its value, the index managed to rally more than 10% from a trough three times.</p><p>From peak inflation to a speculation about a Fed pivot, investors latched on to numerous catalysts to bid up stocks. Each rally eventually faded. Stocks have made little headways since June, with the S&amp;P 500 largely trapped in a 700-point range.</p><p>However short-lived those bounces proved, there’s evidence they bothered Fed officials. Minutes of their last policy meeting released this week showed some members cautioning against “an unwarranted easing in financial conditions” that could undermine efforts to slow the economy and tame inflation.</p><p>With banks kicking off earnings season next week, investors may be content to await more clarity on corporate America’s strength, according to Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities LLP.</p><p>“Last year, the mood changed a lot because every time people bought, the market sold even more,” he said. “People right now will probably prefer buying after being sure that there will be some strong force behind equities.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Signs of Seller Exhaustion Left Stocks Primed for a Big Bounce</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSigns of Seller Exhaustion Left Stocks Primed for a Big Bounce\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-08 08:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/signs-of-seller-exhaustion-left-stocks-primed-for-a-big-bounce?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hedge-fund exposure at five-year low while retail dumps stocksIt extends pattern where positioning overshadows market movesA pattern has persisted in stocks the past year. A downdraft steepens, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/signs-of-seller-exhaustion-left-stocks-primed-for-a-big-bounce?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-06/signs-of-seller-exhaustion-left-stocks-primed-for-a-big-bounce?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2301720269","content_text":"Hedge-fund exposure at five-year low while retail dumps stocksIt extends pattern where positioning overshadows market movesA pattern has persisted in stocks the past year. A downdraft steepens, sellers get the selling out of their systems, and the market is left poised for an often-powerful jump.Friday’s surge, which spared the S&P 500 from a fifth straight down week, bore all the hallmarks of that routine, coming amid a boatload of evidence that investor risk appetite had been cut to the bone. A measure of equity exposure among hedge fund clients fell to a five-year low, while retail pessimism was also intensifying, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data.Those trends would explain two things. One, last month’s uncharacteristically awful returns, a consequence of across-the-board selling that pushed the S&P 500 to its worst December in four years. And two, Friday’s ebullient reaction to news showing higher-than-forecast payroll additions in the US economy, when seven of the prior eight employment reports spurred losses.“If you look at a broad array of sentiment indicators, they universally suggest investors are a lot more cautious than they were a year ago,” said Dan Suzuki, deputy chief investment officer at Richard Bernstein Advisors. “That could very well be laying the groundwork for another short-term rally, as we seem to get every several months.”Stocks ended the longest streak of weekly declines since last May as the S&P 500 climbed during the holiday-shortened period. The benchmark gauge, which finished 2022 with the worst annual slide since the financial crisis, rose 1.5% over the four days, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced for a second week in three.Boom-bust cycles in equities last year generally correlated with changes in institutional and retail positioning. Gains occurred after investors slashed bullish bets, and declines followed buying sprees. The incessant up-down motion made gleaning an economic signal from the market — never an exact science to begin with — particularly futile, with trends in the market proving temporary. Friday’s runup in the S&P 500 also came after a sharp drop in risk-appetites.Another major contour of last year’s investment landscape repeated this week: value vastly outperformed growth, with an index tracking cheaper stocks beating that of fast growers by 2 percentage points. One takeaway from that might be a slightly less-dour economic message than has generally been taken from markets as a whole. Growth companies are part of the economy, obviously, but the battering those stocks took was primarily driven by shrinking valuations. Value shares had far less bloat to correct and as a result their relatively tame losses could be framed as a purer and cheerier signal on future activity.Sessions when monthly payrolls data were released have not been kind to stocks of late. Among jobs days last year, all but three saw the S&P 500 falling as the economy mostly added more jobs than expected, clearing the path for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as it battled inflation. The ominous pattern, along with the specter of a serious downturn, prompted investors of all stripes to hunker down after a brutal year that saw stocks and Treasuries suffer the worst annual loss in more than a century.Hedge funds that make both bullish and bearish equity wagers boosted their short positions in December, with their average leverage falling to the lowest level since 2017, data compiled by JPMorgan’s prime brokerage unit show. A similar trend was on display at Morgan Stanley, where gross leverage among the firm’s hedge fund clients sat near a five-year low.Hedge fund leverage. Source: Morgan StanleyWhile nonfarm payrolls again beat forecasts in December, traders found comfort in cooling wage gains. The S&P 500 jumped 2.3% for the best reaction to a jobs report in more than two years.“Lower weekly hours will bias the real labor income proxy lower, which would imply weaker spending going forward,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research. “This shouldn’t change the Fed outlook much near-term but lowers the odds they need to crush things.”The first signs of a rally were enough to lure a few bulls back after a $13 trillion wipeout last year had pros and even once die-hard retail bulls retreating en mass. Individual traders, who bought the dip in early 2022 only to be burned time and again by the yearlong slump, dumped more than $3 billion of shares in the week through Tuesday, the third-biggest selling in the history of JPMorgan’s data.While year-end tax selling played a role in the exodus, the heavy outflow also reflected growing bearishness among the crowd, according to Peng Cheng, the firm’s strategist who derived the estimate from public data on exchanges.All the defensive posturing likely set the stage for a market bounce, as happened repeatedly during 2022, when prolonged selloffs gave way to rapid snapbacks before the selling resumed. In a year where the S&P 500 lost about one fifth of its value, the index managed to rally more than 10% from a trough three times.From peak inflation to a speculation about a Fed pivot, investors latched on to numerous catalysts to bid up stocks. Each rally eventually faded. Stocks have made little headways since June, with the S&P 500 largely trapped in a 700-point range.However short-lived those bounces proved, there’s evidence they bothered Fed officials. Minutes of their last policy meeting released this week showed some members cautioning against “an unwarranted easing in financial conditions” that could undermine efforts to slow the economy and tame inflation.With banks kicking off earnings season next week, investors may be content to await more clarity on corporate America’s strength, according to Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities LLP.“Last year, the mood changed a lot because every time people bought, the market sold even more,” he said. “People right now will probably prefer buying after being sure that there will be some strong force behind equities.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950615957,"gmtCreate":1672744994480,"gmtModify":1676538729301,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950615957","repostId":"2300178816","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2300178816","pubTimestamp":1672759909,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2300178816?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-03 23:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Dividend-Paying Tech Stocks to Buy in January","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2300178816","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Get the best of both growth and income.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>If you&#39;re looking to give your portfolio a refresh to start the new year, one great way to do so is by adding some dividend-paying tech stocks to it. They offer an unusual combination of income and growth, and better yet, they have an established pattern of outperforming the market. These three in particular look like top stock buys in January.</p><h2>1. Microsoft</h2><p><b>Microsoft</b> is one of the best-performing stocks of all time, and it&#39;s easy to see why. It has dominated the enterprise software space for more than a generation and is diversified across multiple product lines in a way that few other tech giants are.</p><p>Its major offerings include its popular Office software suite, its Azure cloud infrastructure business, and its Windows operating systems. The company also has strong positions in areas like gaming with the Xbox, social media through LinkedIn, and a wide range of other software businesses such as Github.</p><p>Microsoft also enjoys massive competitive advantages as evidenced by its huge operating margins, which came in at 43% in its most recently reported quarter.</p><p>The tech giant&#39;s dividend isn&#39;t going to turn any heads with its yield of 1.2%, but the company has reliably grown its payouts over the past 15 years.</p><p>More importantly, Microsoft&#39;s fast-growing cloud division and its diversification make it a good bet to ride out today&#39;s macroeconomic volatility. While the company is sensitive to changes in business spending, there&#39;s little doubt that it would emerge from a potential recession just as strong as it is now and could easily gain market share from weaker software companies. A recession could also set it up to make some relatively cheap acquisitions, which would benefit it over the long term.</p><h2>2. Taiwan Semiconductor</h2><p><b>Taiwan Semiconductor</b> just got the Warren Buffett stamp of approval as <b>Berkshire Hathaway </b>bought more than $4 billion worth of the chipmaker&#39;s stock in the third quarter, and TSMC passes the Buffett test with flying colors.</p><p>The company manufactures chips on behalf of tech powerhouses like <b>AMD</b>, <b>Apple</b>, <b>Broadcom</b>, and others, and it has a wide economic moat with a more than 50% share of the semiconductor foundry market.</p><p>Taiwan Semi is also a solid dividend payer with a yield of 2.4% at its current share price. Semiconductor stocks sold off sharply in 2022, and TSMC shares fell along with the sector, but the company is more resistant to the cyclical nature of the chip sector than its peers because it&#39;s mostly immune to price shifts in chips since it isn&#39;t selling them to end users.</p><p>The company has also posted strong revenue growth and wide profit margins recently. In Q3 revenue rose 29% year over year to $20.2 billion, and it had a profit margin of 46%.</p><p>Demand for semiconductors continues to grow, and TSMC is spending $40 billion on two new manufacturing facilities in Arizona, paving the way for a significant expansion. The stock also looks well priced at the moment at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13, making now a great time to buy.</p><h2>3. Broadcom</h2><p>Staying within the semiconductor sector, <b>Broadcom</b> also presents a good option for investors looking for dividend-paying tech stocks. Broadcom designs chips, but it has avoided the headwinds that have impacted other chipmakers since it doesn&#39;t focus on PCs and mobile devices.</p><p>Instead, Broadcom makes chips for data centers, wireless routers, modems, and other connectivity devices, as well as local area network infrastructure and fiber optics. Even in a difficult environment for semiconductor stocks, Broadcom has continued to grow its top line.</p><p>In its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Oct. 30, the company reported a 21% revenue increase to $8.93 billion, and its adjusted earnings per share jumped from $7.81 to $10.45. Management foresees that solid growth continuing into 2023 as it called for 16% top-line growth in the first quarter of its fiscal 2023. That forecast indicates that the company isn&#39;t suffering as much as many of its peers are from the macroheadwinds.</p><p>The stock also has an enviable track record. It&#39;s up by 1,700% over the last decade, and at the current share price, its dividend yields 3.4%. Management has increased the dividend rapidly as well and just hiked its payout again by 12%.</p><p>If you&#39;re looking for a tech stock that offers a combination of growth, income, and recession resistance, it&#39;s hard to find a better option than Broadcom.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Dividend-Paying Tech Stocks to Buy in January</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Dividend-Paying Tech Stocks to Buy in January\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-03 23:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/02/3-dividend-paying-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-january/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you're looking to give your portfolio a refresh to start the new year, one great way to do so is by adding some dividend-paying tech stocks to it. They offer an unusual combination of income and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/02/3-dividend-paying-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-january/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","TSM":"台积电","AVGO":"博通"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/02/3-dividend-paying-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-january/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2300178816","content_text":"If you're looking to give your portfolio a refresh to start the new year, one great way to do so is by adding some dividend-paying tech stocks to it. They offer an unusual combination of income and growth, and better yet, they have an established pattern of outperforming the market. These three in particular look like top stock buys in January.1. MicrosoftMicrosoft is one of the best-performing stocks of all time, and it's easy to see why. It has dominated the enterprise software space for more than a generation and is diversified across multiple product lines in a way that few other tech giants are.Its major offerings include its popular Office software suite, its Azure cloud infrastructure business, and its Windows operating systems. The company also has strong positions in areas like gaming with the Xbox, social media through LinkedIn, and a wide range of other software businesses such as Github.Microsoft also enjoys massive competitive advantages as evidenced by its huge operating margins, which came in at 43% in its most recently reported quarter.The tech giant's dividend isn't going to turn any heads with its yield of 1.2%, but the company has reliably grown its payouts over the past 15 years.More importantly, Microsoft's fast-growing cloud division and its diversification make it a good bet to ride out today's macroeconomic volatility. While the company is sensitive to changes in business spending, there's little doubt that it would emerge from a potential recession just as strong as it is now and could easily gain market share from weaker software companies. A recession could also set it up to make some relatively cheap acquisitions, which would benefit it over the long term.2. Taiwan SemiconductorTaiwan Semiconductor just got the Warren Buffett stamp of approval as Berkshire Hathaway bought more than $4 billion worth of the chipmaker's stock in the third quarter, and TSMC passes the Buffett test with flying colors.The company manufactures chips on behalf of tech powerhouses like AMD, Apple, Broadcom, and others, and it has a wide economic moat with a more than 50% share of the semiconductor foundry market.Taiwan Semi is also a solid dividend payer with a yield of 2.4% at its current share price. Semiconductor stocks sold off sharply in 2022, and TSMC shares fell along with the sector, but the company is more resistant to the cyclical nature of the chip sector than its peers because it's mostly immune to price shifts in chips since it isn't selling them to end users.The company has also posted strong revenue growth and wide profit margins recently. In Q3 revenue rose 29% year over year to $20.2 billion, and it had a profit margin of 46%.Demand for semiconductors continues to grow, and TSMC is spending $40 billion on two new manufacturing facilities in Arizona, paving the way for a significant expansion. The stock also looks well priced at the moment at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13, making now a great time to buy.3. BroadcomStaying within the semiconductor sector, Broadcom also presents a good option for investors looking for dividend-paying tech stocks. Broadcom designs chips, but it has avoided the headwinds that have impacted other chipmakers since it doesn't focus on PCs and mobile devices.Instead, Broadcom makes chips for data centers, wireless routers, modems, and other connectivity devices, as well as local area network infrastructure and fiber optics. Even in a difficult environment for semiconductor stocks, Broadcom has continued to grow its top line.In its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Oct. 30, the company reported a 21% revenue increase to $8.93 billion, and its adjusted earnings per share jumped from $7.81 to $10.45. Management foresees that solid growth continuing into 2023 as it called for 16% top-line growth in the first quarter of its fiscal 2023. That forecast indicates that the company isn't suffering as much as many of its peers are from the macroheadwinds.The stock also has an enviable track record. It's up by 1,700% over the last decade, and at the current share price, its dividend yields 3.4%. Management has increased the dividend rapidly as well and just hiked its payout again by 12%.If you're looking for a tech stock that offers a combination of growth, income, and recession resistance, it's hard to find a better option than Broadcom.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924494477,"gmtCreate":1672303347699,"gmtModify":1676538668729,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924494477","repostId":"1137209740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137209740","pubTimestamp":1672328467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137209740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-29 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137209740","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Tesla is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.</li><li>The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.</li><li>A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.</li><li>Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&amp;P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla&#39;s stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors &#34;Teslanaires&#34;. However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla&#39;s Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn&#39;t confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company&#39;s leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the &#34;anti-inflation act&#34; and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I&#39;m going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let&#39;s dive in.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a79a1ea5bc04bd0f7d6b837085e569e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><h3>Strong Financials</h3><p>Tesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b64a3820209ed9456f87830d2189af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Theaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla&#39;s best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57567a6966f9a88dec06edea0df2921f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)</p><p>As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said &#34;competition is coming&#34; for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f129b31bd55450cd9d2b4db301535\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla market share (Electrek)</p><p>Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b8dd476696262c736d8202f0eb711b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)</p><p>A positive for Tesla is it doesn&#39;t have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world&#39;s largest &#34;gigapress&#34;. Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is &#34;pretty easy&#34;, but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as &#34;easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required&#34; according to Musk.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0285620745fdf8528607519819ead673\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Semi(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new &#34;Megachargers&#34; announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the &#34;Megachargers&#34;.</p><p>Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to &#34;outstrip supply&#34;.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e9768e93dfbc30a6ed7f6a616288ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy storage (Q3,22 report)</p><p>Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a &#34;superintelligence&#34; quite easily given the component pieces are all available.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7fe2dfb674cd77a5935cb3ad7b34ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.</p><h3>Advanced Valuation</h3><p>I have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500a6571bf014bc4f705876a2b54d81f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&amp;D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b77d54dee36748f8aba2dbb017bd53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.</p><p>As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2a4393b0790f345f095c860ebcc51f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>Risks-Elon Musk Selling/Twitter</h3><p>A key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla&#39;s factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab90b0248581ffdd6e1053e959dabb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)</p><p>Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter&#39;s debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk&#39;s mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642e9c75c64b767a55648c6514f3739a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)</p><p>Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.</p><h3>Final Thoughts</h3><p>Tesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously &#34;high&#34; valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla&#39;s technology advantages should keep them ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-29 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137209740","content_text":"SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.Tesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla's stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors \"Teslanaires\". However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla's Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn't confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company's leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the \"anti-inflation act\" and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I'm going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let's dive in.Data byYChartsStrong FinancialsTesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.Data by YChartsTheaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla's best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said \"competition is coming\" for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.Tesla market share (Electrek)Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)A positive for Tesla is it doesn't have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world's largest \"gigapress\". Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is \"pretty easy\", but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.Tesla's rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as \"easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required\" according to Musk.Tesla Semi(Tesla)Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new \"Megachargers\" announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the \"Megachargers\".Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to \"outstrip supply\".Energy storage (Q3,22 report)Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a \"superintelligence\" quite easily given the component pieces are all available.Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.Advanced ValuationI have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.Data by YChartsRisks-Elon Musk Selling/TwitterA key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla's factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter's debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk's mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.Final ThoughtsTesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously \"high\" valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla's technology advantages should keep them ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9923459827,"gmtCreate":1670896296369,"gmtModify":1676538455817,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9923459827","repostId":"2291371097","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2291371097","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1670886099,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2291371097?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-13 07:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall St Rallies With Inflation, Fed on Tap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2291371097","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Nov CPI due Tuesday, Fed policy statement set for Wed* Microsoft up on plans to buy LSE stake* Pfi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Nov CPI due Tuesday, Fed policy statement set for Wed</p><p>* Microsoft up on plans to buy LSE stake</p><p>* Pfizer shares higher after drug and vaccine revenue outlook</p><p>* Dow up 1.58%, S&amp;P 500 up 1.43%, Nasdaq up 1.26%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11040d4e5ffe04703dfb3485f85d7d8a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes rallied to kick off the trading week on Monday, lifted in part by gains in Microsoft and Pfizer, as investors girded for inflation data on Tuesday and a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve later in the week.</p><p>Microsoft Corp rose 2.89% following the tech giant&#39;s deal to buy a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange Group, helping to boost each of the three major indexes.</p><p>After strong gains in October and November, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 stumbled out of the gate in December, and suffered its biggest weekly percentage decline in nearly three months as mixed economic data helped fuel recession concerns.</p><p>Consumer inflation data will be closely monitored on Tuesday, and is expected to show prices increased by 7.3% in November on an annual basis, slowing from the 7.7% rise in the previous month, while the &#34;core&#34; reading which excludes food and energy is expected to show a 6.1% increase from the 6.3% in the prior month.</p><p>&#34;The market is pricing in a 6-handle on the CPI tomorrow versus the 7.3% that is expected, and if it has a 6-handle on it, then that would be reason enough to get all excited, at least short-term,&#34; said Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors in Boca Raton, Florida.</p><p>&#34;The other thing is they are once again expecting Jay Powell to come out and have a dovish tone, which would be a huge mistake. Jay Powell needs to stop giving anyone the inclination they are softening up or they are being dovish.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 528.58 points, or 1.58%, to 34,005.04, the S&amp;P 500 gained 56.18 points, or 1.43%, to 3,990.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 139.12 points, or 1.26%, to 11,143.74.</p><p>The rally marked the biggest one-day percentage gain for each of the three major indexes since Nov. 30, and each of the 11 major S&amp;P sectors ended the session in positive territory.</p><p>Pfizer shares gained 0.85% after the drugmaker gave revenue forecasts from vaccines across its portfolio.</p><p>A cooler than expected inflation report would help support the belief the aggressive policy actions taken by the Fed this year to slow the economy are taking hold. The central bank is widely expected to hike by 50 basis points on Wednesday, which would mark a step down from the hikes of 75 basis points in the last four meetings.</p><p>Equities were weaker on Friday after a reading of producer prices for November was more than expected, even though it did show the trend was moderating.</p><p>Fears the Fed will make a policy mistake and tilt the economy into a recession have weighed heavily on Wall Street this year, with the S&amp;P 500 down about 16% and on track for its first yearly drop since 2018 and largest percentage drop since 2008.</p><p>Rivian Automotive Inc slumped 6.16% after the company paused its partnership discussions with Mercedes-Benz Vans on electric van production in Europe.</p><p>Biotech firm Horizon Therapeutics Plc surged 15.49% following a buyout offer from Amgen Inc, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COUP\">Coupa Software Inc</a> soared 26.67% after agreeing to sell itself to private equity firm Thoma Bravo LLC.</p><p>Weber Inc climbed 23.23% after the outdoor cooking firm agreed to be taken private by controlling shareholder BDT Capital Partners LLC.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.35 billion shares, compared with the 10.49 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.67-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.43-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 73 new highs and 264 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall St Rallies With Inflation, Fed on Tap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall St Rallies With Inflation, Fed on Tap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-13 07:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Nov CPI due Tuesday, Fed policy statement set for Wed</p><p>* Microsoft up on plans to buy LSE stake</p><p>* Pfizer shares higher after drug and vaccine revenue outlook</p><p>* Dow up 1.58%, S&amp;P 500 up 1.43%, Nasdaq up 1.26%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11040d4e5ffe04703dfb3485f85d7d8a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1920\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes rallied to kick off the trading week on Monday, lifted in part by gains in Microsoft and Pfizer, as investors girded for inflation data on Tuesday and a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve later in the week.</p><p>Microsoft Corp rose 2.89% following the tech giant&#39;s deal to buy a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange Group, helping to boost each of the three major indexes.</p><p>After strong gains in October and November, the benchmark S&amp;P 500 stumbled out of the gate in December, and suffered its biggest weekly percentage decline in nearly three months as mixed economic data helped fuel recession concerns.</p><p>Consumer inflation data will be closely monitored on Tuesday, and is expected to show prices increased by 7.3% in November on an annual basis, slowing from the 7.7% rise in the previous month, while the &#34;core&#34; reading which excludes food and energy is expected to show a 6.1% increase from the 6.3% in the prior month.</p><p>&#34;The market is pricing in a 6-handle on the CPI tomorrow versus the 7.3% that is expected, and if it has a 6-handle on it, then that would be reason enough to get all excited, at least short-term,&#34; said Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors in Boca Raton, Florida.</p><p>&#34;The other thing is they are once again expecting Jay Powell to come out and have a dovish tone, which would be a huge mistake. Jay Powell needs to stop giving anyone the inclination they are softening up or they are being dovish.&#34;</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 528.58 points, or 1.58%, to 34,005.04, the S&amp;P 500 gained 56.18 points, or 1.43%, to 3,990.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 139.12 points, or 1.26%, to 11,143.74.</p><p>The rally marked the biggest one-day percentage gain for each of the three major indexes since Nov. 30, and each of the 11 major S&amp;P sectors ended the session in positive territory.</p><p>Pfizer shares gained 0.85% after the drugmaker gave revenue forecasts from vaccines across its portfolio.</p><p>A cooler than expected inflation report would help support the belief the aggressive policy actions taken by the Fed this year to slow the economy are taking hold. The central bank is widely expected to hike by 50 basis points on Wednesday, which would mark a step down from the hikes of 75 basis points in the last four meetings.</p><p>Equities were weaker on Friday after a reading of producer prices for November was more than expected, even though it did show the trend was moderating.</p><p>Fears the Fed will make a policy mistake and tilt the economy into a recession have weighed heavily on Wall Street this year, with the S&amp;P 500 down about 16% and on track for its first yearly drop since 2018 and largest percentage drop since 2008.</p><p>Rivian Automotive Inc slumped 6.16% after the company paused its partnership discussions with Mercedes-Benz Vans on electric van production in Europe.</p><p>Biotech firm Horizon Therapeutics Plc surged 15.49% following a buyout offer from Amgen Inc, while <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COUP\">Coupa Software Inc</a> soared 26.67% after agreeing to sell itself to private equity firm Thoma Bravo LLC.</p><p>Weber Inc climbed 23.23% after the outdoor cooking firm agreed to be taken private by controlling shareholder BDT Capital Partners LLC.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.35 billion shares, compared with the 10.49 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.67-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.43-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 73 new highs and 264 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","WEBR":"Weber Inc.","HZNP":"Horizon Pharma","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MSFT":"微软",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PFE":"辉瑞","CPNG":"Coupang, Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2291371097","content_text":"* Nov CPI due Tuesday, Fed policy statement set for Wed* Microsoft up on plans to buy LSE stake* Pfizer shares higher after drug and vaccine revenue outlook* Dow up 1.58%, S&P 500 up 1.43%, Nasdaq up 1.26%NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes rallied to kick off the trading week on Monday, lifted in part by gains in Microsoft and Pfizer, as investors girded for inflation data on Tuesday and a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve later in the week.Microsoft Corp rose 2.89% following the tech giant's deal to buy a 4% stake in the London Stock Exchange Group, helping to boost each of the three major indexes.After strong gains in October and November, the benchmark S&P 500 stumbled out of the gate in December, and suffered its biggest weekly percentage decline in nearly three months as mixed economic data helped fuel recession concerns.Consumer inflation data will be closely monitored on Tuesday, and is expected to show prices increased by 7.3% in November on an annual basis, slowing from the 7.7% rise in the previous month, while the \"core\" reading which excludes food and energy is expected to show a 6.1% increase from the 6.3% in the prior month.\"The market is pricing in a 6-handle on the CPI tomorrow versus the 7.3% that is expected, and if it has a 6-handle on it, then that would be reason enough to get all excited, at least short-term,\" said Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors in Boca Raton, Florida.\"The other thing is they are once again expecting Jay Powell to come out and have a dovish tone, which would be a huge mistake. Jay Powell needs to stop giving anyone the inclination they are softening up or they are being dovish.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 528.58 points, or 1.58%, to 34,005.04, the S&P 500 gained 56.18 points, or 1.43%, to 3,990.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 139.12 points, or 1.26%, to 11,143.74.The rally marked the biggest one-day percentage gain for each of the three major indexes since Nov. 30, and each of the 11 major S&P sectors ended the session in positive territory.Pfizer shares gained 0.85% after the drugmaker gave revenue forecasts from vaccines across its portfolio.A cooler than expected inflation report would help support the belief the aggressive policy actions taken by the Fed this year to slow the economy are taking hold. The central bank is widely expected to hike by 50 basis points on Wednesday, which would mark a step down from the hikes of 75 basis points in the last four meetings.Equities were weaker on Friday after a reading of producer prices for November was more than expected, even though it did show the trend was moderating.Fears the Fed will make a policy mistake and tilt the economy into a recession have weighed heavily on Wall Street this year, with the S&P 500 down about 16% and on track for its first yearly drop since 2018 and largest percentage drop since 2008.Rivian Automotive Inc slumped 6.16% after the company paused its partnership discussions with Mercedes-Benz Vans on electric van production in Europe.Biotech firm Horizon Therapeutics Plc surged 15.49% following a buyout offer from Amgen Inc, while Coupa Software Inc soared 26.67% after agreeing to sell itself to private equity firm Thoma Bravo LLC.Weber Inc climbed 23.23% after the outdoor cooking firm agreed to be taken private by controlling shareholder BDT Capital Partners LLC.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.35 billion shares, compared with the 10.49 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.67-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.43-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 2 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 73 new highs and 264 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":50,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9967710751,"gmtCreate":1670377047974,"gmtModify":1676538355539,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9967710751","repostId":"2289364177","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2289364177","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1670362711,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2289364177?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-07 05:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-S&P Posts 4th Straight Decline As Recession Talk Weighs on Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2289364177","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 extending its losing streak to four","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 extending its losing streak to four sessions, as skittish investors fretted over Federal Reserve rate hikes and further talk of a looming recession.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc dragged down markets, with its shares sliding 6.8% following reports that European Union regulators have ruled the company should not require users to agree to personalized ads based on their digital activity.</p><p>However, technology names generally suffered as investors applied caution toward high-growth companies whose performance would be sluggish in a challenging economy. Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc and Alphabet Inc fell between 2.5% and 3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was pulled lower for a third straight session.</p><p>Most of the 11 major S&amp;P sectors declined, with energy and communications services joining technology as leading laggards. Utilities, a defensive sector often preferred during times of economic uncertainty, was the only exception, gaining 0.7%.</p><p>Future economic growth prospects were in focus on Tuesday following comments from financial titans pointing toward uncertain times ahead.</p><p>Bank of America Corp&#39;s chief executive predicted three quarters of mild negative growth next year, while JPMorgan Chase and Co&#39;s CEO Jamie Dimon said inflation will erode consumer spending power and that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.</p><p>Their comments came on the heels of recent views from BlackRock and others that believe the U.S. Federal Reserve&#39;s aggressive monetary tightening to combat stubbornly high price rises could induce an economic downturn in 2023.</p><p>&#34;The market is very reactive right now,&#34; said David Sadkin, president at Bel Air Investment Advisors.</p><p>He noted that, while markets traditionally reflect the future, right now they are moving up and down based on the latest headlines.</p><p>Fears about economic growth come amid a re-evaluation by traders of what path future interest rate hikes will take, following strong data on jobs and the services sector in recent days.</p><p>Money market bets are pointing to a 91% chance that the U.S. central bank might raise rates by 50 basis points at its Dec. 13-14 policy meeting, with rates expected to peak at 4.98% in May 2023, up from 4.92% estimated on Monday before service-sector data was released.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied 13.8% in October and November on hopes of smaller rate hikes and better-than-expected earnings, although such Fed expectations could be undermined by further data releases, including producer prices due out on Friday.</p><p>&#34;The market got ahead of itself at the end of November, but then we got some good economic data, so people are re-evaluating what the Fed is going to do next week,&#34; said Bel Air&#39;s Sadkin.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350.76 points, or 1.03%, to close at 33,596.34, the S&amp;P 500 lost 57.58 points, or 1.44%, to finish at 3,941.26 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225.05 points, or 2%, to end on 11,014.89.</p><p>Jitters on the direction of global growth have also weighed on oil prices, with U.S. crude slipping to levels last seen in January, before Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply markets. The energy sector fell 2.7% on Tuesday.</p><p>Banks are among the most sensitive stocks to an economic downturn, as they potentially face negative effects from bad loans or slowing loan growth. The S&amp;P banks index slipped 1.4% to its lowest close since Oct. 21.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.01 billion shares, in line with the average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and nine new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 52 new highs and 262 new lows. (Reporting by Devik Jain, Ankika Biswas and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-S&P Posts 4th Straight Decline As Recession Talk Weighs on Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-S&P Posts 4th Straight Decline As Recession Talk Weighs on Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-07 05:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday, with the S&amp;P 500 extending its losing streak to four sessions, as skittish investors fretted over Federal Reserve rate hikes and further talk of a looming recession.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> Inc dragged down markets, with its shares sliding 6.8% following reports that European Union regulators have ruled the company should not require users to agree to personalized ads based on their digital activity.</p><p>However, technology names generally suffered as investors applied caution toward high-growth companies whose performance would be sluggish in a challenging economy. Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc and Alphabet Inc fell between 2.5% and 3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was pulled lower for a third straight session.</p><p>Most of the 11 major S&amp;P sectors declined, with energy and communications services joining technology as leading laggards. Utilities, a defensive sector often preferred during times of economic uncertainty, was the only exception, gaining 0.7%.</p><p>Future economic growth prospects were in focus on Tuesday following comments from financial titans pointing toward uncertain times ahead.</p><p>Bank of America Corp&#39;s chief executive predicted three quarters of mild negative growth next year, while JPMorgan Chase and Co&#39;s CEO Jamie Dimon said inflation will erode consumer spending power and that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.</p><p>Their comments came on the heels of recent views from BlackRock and others that believe the U.S. Federal Reserve&#39;s aggressive monetary tightening to combat stubbornly high price rises could induce an economic downturn in 2023.</p><p>&#34;The market is very reactive right now,&#34; said David Sadkin, president at Bel Air Investment Advisors.</p><p>He noted that, while markets traditionally reflect the future, right now they are moving up and down based on the latest headlines.</p><p>Fears about economic growth come amid a re-evaluation by traders of what path future interest rate hikes will take, following strong data on jobs and the services sector in recent days.</p><p>Money market bets are pointing to a 91% chance that the U.S. central bank might raise rates by 50 basis points at its Dec. 13-14 policy meeting, with rates expected to peak at 4.98% in May 2023, up from 4.92% estimated on Monday before service-sector data was released.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied 13.8% in October and November on hopes of smaller rate hikes and better-than-expected earnings, although such Fed expectations could be undermined by further data releases, including producer prices due out on Friday.</p><p>&#34;The market got ahead of itself at the end of November, but then we got some good economic data, so people are re-evaluating what the Fed is going to do next week,&#34; said Bel Air&#39;s Sadkin.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350.76 points, or 1.03%, to close at 33,596.34, the S&amp;P 500 lost 57.58 points, or 1.44%, to finish at 3,941.26 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225.05 points, or 2%, to end on 11,014.89.</p><p>Jitters on the direction of global growth have also weighed on oil prices, with U.S. crude slipping to levels last seen in January, before Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply markets. The energy sector fell 2.7% on Tuesday.</p><p>Banks are among the most sensitive stocks to an economic downturn, as they potentially face negative effects from bad loans or slowing loan growth. The S&amp;P banks index slipped 1.4% to its lowest close since Oct. 21.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.01 billion shares, in line with the average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and nine new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 52 new highs and 262 new lows. (Reporting by Devik Jain, Ankika Biswas and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2289364177","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street ended lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 extending its losing streak to four sessions, as skittish investors fretted over Federal Reserve rate hikes and further talk of a looming recession.Meta Platforms Inc dragged down markets, with its shares sliding 6.8% following reports that European Union regulators have ruled the company should not require users to agree to personalized ads based on their digital activity.However, technology names generally suffered as investors applied caution toward high-growth companies whose performance would be sluggish in a challenging economy. Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc and Alphabet Inc fell between 2.5% and 3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was pulled lower for a third straight session.Most of the 11 major S&P sectors declined, with energy and communications services joining technology as leading laggards. Utilities, a defensive sector often preferred during times of economic uncertainty, was the only exception, gaining 0.7%.Future economic growth prospects were in focus on Tuesday following comments from financial titans pointing toward uncertain times ahead.Bank of America Corp's chief executive predicted three quarters of mild negative growth next year, while JPMorgan Chase and Co's CEO Jamie Dimon said inflation will erode consumer spending power and that a mild to more pronounced recession was likely ahead.Their comments came on the heels of recent views from BlackRock and others that believe the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary tightening to combat stubbornly high price rises could induce an economic downturn in 2023.\"The market is very reactive right now,\" said David Sadkin, president at Bel Air Investment Advisors.He noted that, while markets traditionally reflect the future, right now they are moving up and down based on the latest headlines.Fears about economic growth come amid a re-evaluation by traders of what path future interest rate hikes will take, following strong data on jobs and the services sector in recent days.Money market bets are pointing to a 91% chance that the U.S. central bank might raise rates by 50 basis points at its Dec. 13-14 policy meeting, with rates expected to peak at 4.98% in May 2023, up from 4.92% estimated on Monday before service-sector data was released.The S&P 500 rallied 13.8% in October and November on hopes of smaller rate hikes and better-than-expected earnings, although such Fed expectations could be undermined by further data releases, including producer prices due out on Friday.\"The market got ahead of itself at the end of November, but then we got some good economic data, so people are re-evaluating what the Fed is going to do next week,\" said Bel Air's Sadkin.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350.76 points, or 1.03%, to close at 33,596.34, the S&P 500 lost 57.58 points, or 1.44%, to finish at 3,941.26 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 225.05 points, or 2%, to end on 11,014.89.Jitters on the direction of global growth have also weighed on oil prices, with U.S. crude slipping to levels last seen in January, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply markets. The energy sector fell 2.7% on Tuesday.Banks are among the most sensitive stocks to an economic downturn, as they potentially face negative effects from bad loans or slowing loan growth. The S&P banks index slipped 1.4% to its lowest close since Oct. 21.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.01 billion shares, in line with the average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and nine new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 52 new highs and 262 new lows. (Reporting by Devik Jain, Ankika Biswas and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru and David French in New York; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi, Shounak Dasgupta and Lisa Shumaker)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179326904,"gmtCreate":1626487666908,"gmtModify":1703760994855,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/179326904","repostId":"1159574501","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159574501","pubTimestamp":1626484131,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159574501?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-17 09:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Bad Omen' For Meme Stocks And The Retail Trading Boom? Here's What The Data Says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159574501","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Social media meme stocks GameStop Corp.(NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(NYSE:AMC) took ","content":"<p>Social media meme stocks&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp.</b>(NYSE:GME) and&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc</b>(NYSE:AMC) took a beating this week, with GameStop on track to finish the week down 9% and AMC set to lose 20.9% in Friday afternoon trading.</p>\n<p>DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said this week&nbsp;there is an ominous sign the&nbsp;meme stock phenomenon may be dying a slow death.</p>\n<p><b>Retail Trading Boom:</b>DataTrek has been periodically tracking the boom in retail traders triggered during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 by monitoring U.S. Google search volume for the keywords “invest” and “buy stock.” Colas said these basic search terms are a broad way to gauge marginal retail investor interest in the stock market.</p>\n<p>The image below shows how search volume for those key phrases has changed since the beginning of 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9930646712b9790171cccf12a873f757\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Colas said the search volume data clearly indicates the retail stock trading fad is completely over at this point, a “very bad omen” for AMC and GameStop. In fact, Google search volume is now back down to where it was before the pandemic started in early 2020.</p>\n<p>In addition, search volumes are now down 75% from their peak levels during the initial short squeezes in AMC and GameStop back in January 2021.</p>\n<p>Colas said meme stocks like AMC need new retail stock traders to join in the buying to support their stock prices else they could be headed for more volatility like they have experienced this week.</p>\n<p>“Bubbles need fresh money, or they deflate. Quickly,” Colas wrote. “Every craze needs new adherents (i.e., not just the same crowd) to keep it relevant, and the Google chart shows those are in increasingly short supply.”</p>\n<p><b>PMP Weighs In:</b>Benzinga&nbsp;PreMarket Prep co-host Dennis Dick said&nbsp;a good story can carry a stock a long way, and some stocks can even become so hot that they become temporarily disconnected from the company’s underlying fundamentals.</p>\n<p>“We have seen that in a number of meme stocks this year. Story can drive price in the short run but stocks almost always return back to their fundamental value in the long run,” Dick said.</p>\n<p>The type of disconnect between share price and underlying value that AMC and GameStop have experienced in 2021 is certainly nothing new. Canadian cannabis stock&nbsp;<b>Tilray Inc</b>(NASDAQ:TLRY) experienced a similar disconnect back in 2018 when a retail stock mania sent the stock skyrocketing up to $300. Today, Tilray is trading back down at around $13.90.</p>\n<p>“As the stock price begins to fall, momentum traders who have been chasing the hot story will begin to exit. But if the stock trades at an extreme valuation, there may be very few traders willing to buy. This is what we are starting to see in many meme stocks today,” Dick said.</p>\n<p><b>Benzinga's Take:</b>If the story begins to get hot again, the stock prices of overvalued story stocks can always recover once again. But without any underlying fundamentals to support the valuation, these types of stocks need a constant stream of new buyers and an increasingly bullish story to generate fresh enthusiasm.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Bad Omen' For Meme Stocks And The Retail Trading Boom? Here's What The Data Says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Bad Omen' For Meme Stocks And The Retail Trading Boom? Here's What The Data Says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-17 09:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22023662/bad-omen-for-meme-stocks-and-the-retail-trading-boom-heres-what-the-data-says><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Social media meme stocks GameStop Corp.(NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(NYSE:AMC) took a beating this week, with GameStop on track to finish the week down 9% and AMC set to lose 20.9% in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22023662/bad-omen-for-meme-stocks-and-the-retail-trading-boom-heres-what-the-data-says\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/22023662/bad-omen-for-meme-stocks-and-the-retail-trading-boom-heres-what-the-data-says","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159574501","content_text":"Social media meme stocks GameStop Corp.(NYSE:GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc(NYSE:AMC) took a beating this week, with GameStop on track to finish the week down 9% and AMC set to lose 20.9% in Friday afternoon trading.\nDataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas said this week there is an ominous sign the meme stock phenomenon may be dying a slow death.\nRetail Trading Boom:DataTrek has been periodically tracking the boom in retail traders triggered during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 by monitoring U.S. Google search volume for the keywords “invest” and “buy stock.” Colas said these basic search terms are a broad way to gauge marginal retail investor interest in the stock market.\nThe image below shows how search volume for those key phrases has changed since the beginning of 2020.\n\nColas said the search volume data clearly indicates the retail stock trading fad is completely over at this point, a “very bad omen” for AMC and GameStop. In fact, Google search volume is now back down to where it was before the pandemic started in early 2020.\nIn addition, search volumes are now down 75% from their peak levels during the initial short squeezes in AMC and GameStop back in January 2021.\nColas said meme stocks like AMC need new retail stock traders to join in the buying to support their stock prices else they could be headed for more volatility like they have experienced this week.\n“Bubbles need fresh money, or they deflate. Quickly,” Colas wrote. “Every craze needs new adherents (i.e., not just the same crowd) to keep it relevant, and the Google chart shows those are in increasingly short supply.”\nPMP Weighs In:Benzinga PreMarket Prep co-host Dennis Dick said a good story can carry a stock a long way, and some stocks can even become so hot that they become temporarily disconnected from the company’s underlying fundamentals.\n“We have seen that in a number of meme stocks this year. Story can drive price in the short run but stocks almost always return back to their fundamental value in the long run,” Dick said.\nThe type of disconnect between share price and underlying value that AMC and GameStop have experienced in 2021 is certainly nothing new. Canadian cannabis stock Tilray Inc(NASDAQ:TLRY) experienced a similar disconnect back in 2018 when a retail stock mania sent the stock skyrocketing up to $300. Today, Tilray is trading back down at around $13.90.\n“As the stock price begins to fall, momentum traders who have been chasing the hot story will begin to exit. But if the stock trades at an extreme valuation, there may be very few traders willing to buy. This is what we are starting to see in many meme stocks today,” Dick said.\nBenzinga's Take:If the story begins to get hot again, the stock prices of overvalued story stocks can always recover once again. But without any underlying fundamentals to support the valuation, these types of stocks need a constant stream of new buyers and an increasingly bullish story to generate fresh enthusiasm.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133580275,"gmtCreate":1621768328497,"gmtModify":1704362235042,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/133580275","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137906121","pubTimestamp":1621611396,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2137906121?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-21 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Are the 3 Bank Moves Warren Buffett Has Made So Far in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137906121","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Berkshire Hathaway has continued to reduce its stakes in banks.","content":"<p><b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B) recently filed its 13F form for the first quarter of 2021, detailing what stock sales and purchases the conglomerate and the legendary investor in charge, Warren Buffett, made during the period. As has been the case for most of the past year, Buffett was active in the financial sector, mostly reducing Berkshire Hathaway's positions in banks. At the company's annual investor day earlier this month, Buffett provided some explanation for all the stock selling he's done in that sector.</p>\n<p>\"I like banks generally,\" he said, \"I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten.\"</p>\n<p>Let's review the three big changes Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway made to their bank holdings in the first quarter.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2da7d6438277757a73f9e626ebc6fc2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>1. All but eliminating Wells Fargo</h2>\n<p>Everyone knew it was coming, but Buffett all but made it official last quarter, nearly eliminating his position in his onetime favorite bank, <b>Wells Fargo</b> (NYSE:WFC). Berkshire Hathaway sold 51.7 million shares, dropping its stake to a mere 675,000 shares valued at $26.3 million.</p>\n<p>This essentially ends what was an epic run for the Oracle of Omaha and Wells Fargo. Buffett first purchased shares in the large U.S. bank in 1989, and by 1994, he had acquired more than 13% of its outstanding shares. At the end of the third quarter of 2019, before the pandemic, Buffett's stake, which had a rough original cost basis of just below $9 billion, was worth close to $20 billion. And at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> point back in 2017, it was reportedly worth as much as $29 billion.</p>\n<p>But as the fallout of Wells Fargo's phony accounts scandal and other revelations about its consumer abuses continued to play out, Buffett began to lose faith in the institution and started trimming his position. It looks like Buffett ultimately ended up making much less on his Wells Fargo investment than he could have, considering he sold more than 323 million shares between the end of Q1 2020 and the end of Q1 2021. During that 12-month period, the bank's shares traded from a low of $21.45 to a high of $39.07. At the end of 2019, they traded north of $53.</p>\n<p>The stock closed at $45.73 on Thursday, and many investors still believe Wells Fargo is undervalued these days, trading at 135% tangible book value (equity minus intangible assets and goodwill). Bank valuations have shot up in recent months, and Wells Fargo in particular could see more tailwinds when the Federal Reserve lifts the $1.95 trillion asset cap that the bank has been operating under since 2018.</p>\n<h2>2. Dumping <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SYF\">Synchrony Financial</a></h2>\n<p>Last quarter, Berkshire Hathaway also eliminated its entire stake in the consumer finance credit card company <b>Synchrony Financial&nbsp;</b>(NYSE:SYF), selling its 21.1 million shares. Synchrony uses what it calls a \"partner-centric\" business model under which it teams up with leading retailers and digital brands that promote Synchrony's credit cards. Consumers can get deals on specific purchases by opening Synchrony credit cards, which are often branded under a retailer's name.</p>\n<p>While I wouldn't say I saw this move coming, it doesn't entirely surprise me. Over the last year, Buffett has become even more selective about which banks he wants to own. He seems to be picking a winner or two in each banking industry subcategory -- for instance, he sold his stake in America's largest bank, <b>JPMorgan Chase</b>, and loaded up on America's second-largest bank, <b>Bank of America</b>.</p>\n<p>Considering that Buffett already has a huge position in <b>American <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">Express</a></b>, and loves the brand, that is likely going to be his pick for a credit-card-focused holding. Berkshire Hathaway likely made a good profit on that Synchrony investment, though, considering that the stock hit its highest level ever during Q1.</p>\n<h2>3. Trimming U.S. Bancorp again</h2>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway also sold about 1.45 million shares of <b>U.S. Bancorp</b> (NYSE:USB) in the first quarter -- but it still owns nearly 129.7 million shares. The Oracle of Omaha has sold small quantities of shares of the Minnesota-based regional bank a few times over the last year, and it's a bit unclear why. It does appear that he has made U.S. Bancorp his regional bank pick, though. He sold off his other regional bank holdings, including his stakes in <b>PNC Financial Services Group</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>M&amp;T Bank</b>, in the fourth quarter of 2020.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>One possible explanation relates to Buffett's well-known desire to keep his stakes in those banks below 10%, so he can avoid the additional reporting requirements that a higher ownership level would trigger. At the end of the first quarter, Buffett owned about 8.7% of U.S. Bancorp's outstanding shares. So his stock sale may have simply been a move to prepare for the bank's planned share repurchases, which should accelerate later this year. Last quarter's adjustment should maintain Berkshire Hathaway's stake at a level comfortably under the 10% threshold, even after U.S. Bancorp's total share count is reduced. </p>\n<p>Overall, I still feel confident that Buffett plans to stick with U.S. Bancorp, although I will continue to watch his moves in upcoming quarters to see if he further reduces his stake in it.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Are the 3 Bank Moves Warren Buffett Has Made So Far in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Are the 3 Bank Moves Warren Buffett Has Made So Far in 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-21 23:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/21/here-are-the-3-bank-moves-warren-buffett-has-made/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B) recently filed its 13F form for the first quarter of 2021, detailing what stock sales and purchases the conglomerate and the legendary investor in charge, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/21/here-are-the-3-bank-moves-warren-buffett-has-made/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USB":"美国合众银行","WFC":"富国银行","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","SYF":"Synchrony Financial","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/21/here-are-the-3-bank-moves-warren-buffett-has-made/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137906121","content_text":"Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A) (NYSE:BRK.B) recently filed its 13F form for the first quarter of 2021, detailing what stock sales and purchases the conglomerate and the legendary investor in charge, Warren Buffett, made during the period. As has been the case for most of the past year, Buffett was active in the financial sector, mostly reducing Berkshire Hathaway's positions in banks. At the company's annual investor day earlier this month, Buffett provided some explanation for all the stock selling he's done in that sector.\n\"I like banks generally,\" he said, \"I just didn't like the proportion we had compared to the possible risk if we got the bad results that so far we haven't gotten.\"\nLet's review the three big changes Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway made to their bank holdings in the first quarter.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. All but eliminating Wells Fargo\nEveryone knew it was coming, but Buffett all but made it official last quarter, nearly eliminating his position in his onetime favorite bank, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). Berkshire Hathaway sold 51.7 million shares, dropping its stake to a mere 675,000 shares valued at $26.3 million.\nThis essentially ends what was an epic run for the Oracle of Omaha and Wells Fargo. Buffett first purchased shares in the large U.S. bank in 1989, and by 1994, he had acquired more than 13% of its outstanding shares. At the end of the third quarter of 2019, before the pandemic, Buffett's stake, which had a rough original cost basis of just below $9 billion, was worth close to $20 billion. And at one point back in 2017, it was reportedly worth as much as $29 billion.\nBut as the fallout of Wells Fargo's phony accounts scandal and other revelations about its consumer abuses continued to play out, Buffett began to lose faith in the institution and started trimming his position. It looks like Buffett ultimately ended up making much less on his Wells Fargo investment than he could have, considering he sold more than 323 million shares between the end of Q1 2020 and the end of Q1 2021. During that 12-month period, the bank's shares traded from a low of $21.45 to a high of $39.07. At the end of 2019, they traded north of $53.\nThe stock closed at $45.73 on Thursday, and many investors still believe Wells Fargo is undervalued these days, trading at 135% tangible book value (equity minus intangible assets and goodwill). Bank valuations have shot up in recent months, and Wells Fargo in particular could see more tailwinds when the Federal Reserve lifts the $1.95 trillion asset cap that the bank has been operating under since 2018.\n2. Dumping Synchrony Financial\nLast quarter, Berkshire Hathaway also eliminated its entire stake in the consumer finance credit card company Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF), selling its 21.1 million shares. Synchrony uses what it calls a \"partner-centric\" business model under which it teams up with leading retailers and digital brands that promote Synchrony's credit cards. Consumers can get deals on specific purchases by opening Synchrony credit cards, which are often branded under a retailer's name.\nWhile I wouldn't say I saw this move coming, it doesn't entirely surprise me. Over the last year, Buffett has become even more selective about which banks he wants to own. He seems to be picking a winner or two in each banking industry subcategory -- for instance, he sold his stake in America's largest bank, JPMorgan Chase, and loaded up on America's second-largest bank, Bank of America.\nConsidering that Buffett already has a huge position in American Express, and loves the brand, that is likely going to be his pick for a credit-card-focused holding. Berkshire Hathaway likely made a good profit on that Synchrony investment, though, considering that the stock hit its highest level ever during Q1.\n3. Trimming U.S. Bancorp again\nBerkshire Hathaway also sold about 1.45 million shares of U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) in the first quarter -- but it still owns nearly 129.7 million shares. The Oracle of Omaha has sold small quantities of shares of the Minnesota-based regional bank a few times over the last year, and it's a bit unclear why. It does appear that he has made U.S. Bancorp his regional bank pick, though. He sold off his other regional bank holdings, including his stakes in PNC Financial Services Group and M&T Bank, in the fourth quarter of 2020. \nOne possible explanation relates to Buffett's well-known desire to keep his stakes in those banks below 10%, so he can avoid the additional reporting requirements that a higher ownership level would trigger. At the end of the first quarter, Buffett owned about 8.7% of U.S. Bancorp's outstanding shares. So his stock sale may have simply been a move to prepare for the bank's planned share repurchases, which should accelerate later this year. Last quarter's adjustment should maintain Berkshire Hathaway's stake at a level comfortably under the 10% threshold, even after U.S. Bancorp's total share count is reduced. \nOverall, I still feel confident that Buffett plans to stick with U.S. Bancorp, although I will continue to watch his moves in upcoming quarters to see if he further reduces his stake in it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9950987747,"gmtCreate":1672642129590,"gmtModify":1676538715112,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9950987747","repostId":"1105874821","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9964063156,"gmtCreate":1670035615175,"gmtModify":1676538293162,"author":{"id":"3581903617103899","authorId":"3581903617103899","name":"SvdB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5122e985be0048597462b4591a72fb46","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9964063156","repostId":"1152464265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152464265","pubTimestamp":1670022054,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152464265?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-03 07:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152464265","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Ha","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb8b5a354d9d687bd95cdff74dddc508\" tg-width=\"1214\" tg-height=\"811\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Halloween party are still hanging from a doorway. Two boxes of Legos sit on the floor of one bedroom. And then there are the shoes—dozens of sneakers and heels piled in the foyer, left behind by employees who fled the island of New Providence last month when his cryptocurrency exchangeFTX imploded.</p><p>“It’s been an interesting few weeks,” Bankman-Fried says in a chipper tone as he greets me. It’s a muggy Saturday afternoon, eight days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He’s shoeless, in white gym socks, a red T-shirt and wrinkled khaki shorts. His standard uniform.</p><p>This isn’t part of the typical tour Bankman-Fried gave to the many reporters who came to tell the tale of the boy-genius-crypto-billionaire who slept on a beanbag chair next to his desk and only got rich so he could give it all away, and it’s easy to see why. The apartment is at the top of one of the luxury condo buildings that border a marina in a gated community called Albany. Outside, deckhands buff the stanchions of a 200-foot yacht owned by a fracking billionaire. A bronze replica of Wall Street’s<i>Charging Bull</i>statue stands on the lawn, which is as manicured as the residents. I feel like I’ve crash-landed on an alien planet populated solely by the very rich and the people who work for them.</p><p>Bankman-Fried leads me down a marble-floored hallway to a small bedroom, where he perches on a plush brown couch. Always known for being jittery, he taps his foot so hard it rattles a coffee table, smacks gum and rubs his index finger with his thumb like he’s twirling an invisible fidget spinner. But he seems almost cheerful as he explains why he’s invited me into his 12,000-square-foot bolthole, against the advice of his lawyers, even as investigators from theUS Department of Justice probewhether he used customers’ funds to prop up his hedge fund, a crime that could send him to prison for years. (Spoiler alert: It sure looks like he did.)</p><p>“What I’m focusing on is what I can do, right now, to try and make things as right as possible,” Bankman-Fried says. “I can’t do that if I’m just focused on covering my ass.”</p><p>But he seems to be doing just that, with me here and all along the apology tour he’ll later embark on, which will include a video appearance at a<i>New York Times</i>conference and an interview on<i>Good Morning America</i>. He’s been trying to blame his firm’s failure on a hazy combination of comically poor bookkeeping, wildly misjudged risks and complete ignorance of what his hedge fund was doing. In other words, an alumnus of both MIT and the elite Wall Street trading firmJane Streetis arguing that he was just dumb with the numbers—not pulling a conscious fraud. Talking in detail to journalists about what’s certain to be the subject of extensive litigation seems like an unusual strategy, but it makes sense: The press helped him create his only-honest-man-in-crypto image, so why not use them to talk his way out of trouble?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b2ba9ef6da8454146f200cdc460f6e\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Bankman-Fried after an interview on<i>Bloomberg Wealth With David Rubenstein</i>on Aug. 17, 2022.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg</p><p>He doesn’t say so, but one reason he might be willing to speak with me is that I’m one of the reporters who helped build him up. After spending two days at FTX’s offices in February, I flew past the brightred flagsat his company—its lack of corporate governance, the ties to his Alameda Research hedge fund, its profligate spending on marketing, the fact that it operated largely outside US jurisdiction. Iwrote a storyfocused on whether Bankman-Fried would follow through on his plans to donate huge sums to charity and his connections to an unusual philanthropic movement calledeffective altruism.</p><p>It wasn’t the most embarrassingly puffy of the many puff pieces that came out about him. (“After my interview with SBF, I was convinced: I was talking to a future trillionaire,” one writer said in an article commissioned by a venture capital firm.) But my tone wasn’t entirely dissimilar. “Bankman-Fried is a thought experiment from a college philosophy seminar come to life,” I wrote. “Should someone who wants to save the world first amass as much money and power as possible, or will the pursuit corrupt him along the way?” Now it seems pretty clear that a better question would’ve been whether the business was ascam from the start.</p><p>I tell Bankman-Fried I want to talk about the decisions that led to FTX’s collapse, and why he took them. Earlier in the week, inlate-night DM exchangeswith a<i>Vox</i>reporter and on a phone call with a YouTuber, he made comments that many interpreted as an admission that everything he said was a lie. (“So the ethics stuff, mostly a front?” the<i>Vox</i>reporter asked. “Yeah,” Bankman-Fried replied.) He’d spoken so cynically about his motivations that to many it seemed like a comic book character was pulling off his mask to reveal the villain who’d been hiding there all along.</p><p>I set out on this visit with a different working theory. Maybe I was feeling the tug of my past reporting, but I still didn’t think the talk about charity was all made up. Since he was a teenager, Bankman-Fried has described himself as utilitarian—following the philosophy that the correct action is the one likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number of people. He said his endgame was making and donating enough money to prevent pandemics and stop runaway artificial intelligence from destroying humanity. Faced with a crisis, and believing he was the hero of his own sci-fi movie, he might’ve thought it was right to make a crazy, even illegal, gamble to save his company.</p><p>To be clear, if that’s what happened, it’s the logic of a megalomaniac, not a martyr. The money wasn’t his to gamble with, and “the ends justify the means” is a cliché of bad ethics. But if it’s what he believed, he might still think he’d made the right decision, even if it didn’t work out. It seemed to me that’s what he meant when he messaged<i>Vox</i>, “The worst quadrant is sketchy + lose. The best is win + ???” I want to probe that, in part because it might get him to talk more candidly about what had happened to his customers’ money.</p><p>I decide to approach the topic gingerly, on terms I think he’ll relate to, as it seems he’s in less of a crime-confess-y mood. He’s said he likes to evaluate decisions in terms of expected value—the odds of success times the likely payoff—so I begin by asking: “Should I judge you by your impact, or by the expected value of your decision?”</p><p>“When all is said and done, what matters is your actual realized impact. Like, that’s what actually matters to the world,” he says. “But, obviously, there’s luck.”</p><p>That’s the in I’m looking for. For the next 11 hours—with breaks for fundraising calls and a very awkward dinner—I try to get him to tell me exactly what he meant. He denies that he’s committed fraud or lied to anyone and blames FTX’s failure on his sloppiness and inattention. But at points it seems like he’s saying he got<i>un</i>lucky, or miscalculated the odds.</p><p>Bankman-Fried tells me he’s still got a chance to raise $8 billion to save his company. He seems delusional, or committed to pretending this is still an error he can fix, and either way, the few supporters remaining at his penthouse seem unlikely to set him straight. The grim scene reminds me a bit of the end of<i>Scarface</i>, with Tony Montana holed up in his mansion, semi-incoherent, his unknown enemies sneaking closer. But instead of mountains of cocaine, Bankman-Fried is clinging to spreadsheet tabs filled with wildly optimistic cryptocurrency valuations.</p><p>Think of FTX like an offshore casino. Customers sent in money, then gambled on the price of hundreds ofcryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin or Ether, but more obscure coins. In crypto slang, the latter are called shitcoins, because almost no one knows what they’re for. But in the past few years, otherwise respectable people, from retired dentists to heads of state, convinced themselves that these coins werethe future of finance. Or at least that enough other people might think so to make the price go up. Bankman-Fried’s casino was growing so fast that earlier this year some of Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists invested in it at a $32 billion valuation.</p><p>The problem surfaced last month. After a rival crypto-casino kingpin raised concerns about FTX on Twitter, customers rushed to cash in their chips. But when Bankman-Fried’s casino opened the vault, their money wasn’t there. According to multiple news reports citing people familiar with the matter, it had been secretly lent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, which had lost it in some mix of bad bets, insane spending and perhaps something even sketchier. John Ray III, the lawyer who’s now chief executive officer of the bankrupt exchange, has alleged in court that FTX covered up the loans using secret software.</p><p>Bankman-Fried denies this again to me. Returning to the framework of expected value, I ask him if the decisions he made were correct.</p><p>“I think that I’ve made a lot of plus-EV decisions and a few very large boneheaded decisions,” he says. “Certainly in retrospect, those very large decisions were very bad, and may end up overwhelming everything else.”</p><p>The chain of events, in his telling, started about four years ago. Bankman-Fried was in Hong Kong, where he’d moved from Berkeley, California, with a small group of friends from the effective-altruism community. Together they ran a successful startup crypto hedge fund,Alameda Research. (The name itself was an early example of his casual attitude toward rules—it was chosen to avoid scrutiny from banks, which frequently closed its accounts. “If we named our company like, Shitcoin Daytraders Inc., they’d probably just reject us,” Bankman-Fried told a podcaster in 2021. “But, I mean, no one doesn’t like research.”)</p><p>The fund had made millions of dollars exploiting inefficiencies across cryptocurrency exchanges. (Ex-employees, even those otherwise critical of Bankman-Fried, have said this is true, though some have said Alameda then lost some of that money because of bad trades and mismanagement.) Bankman-Fried and his friends began considering starting their own exchange—what would become FTX.</p><p>The way Bankman-Fried later described this decision reveals his attitude toward risk. He estimated there was an 80% chance the exchange would fail to attract enough customers. But he’s said one should always take a bet, even a long-shot one, if the expected value is positive, calling this stance “risk neutral.” But it actually meant he would take risks that to a normal person sound insane. “As an individual, to make a bet where it’s like, ‘I’m going to gamble my $10 billion and either get $20 billion or $0, with equal probability,’ would be madness,” Rob Wiblin, host of an effective-altruism podcast, said to Bankman-Fried in April. “But from an altruistic point of view, it’s not so crazy.”</p><p>“Completely agree,” Bankman-Fried replied. He told another interviewer that he’d make a bet described as a chance of “51% you double the earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried and his friends jump-started FTX by having Alameda provide liquidity. It was a huge conflict of interest. Imagine if the top executives at an online poker site also entered its high-stakes tournaments—the temptation to cheat by peeking at other players’ cards would be huge. But Bankman-Fried assured customers that Alameda would play by the same rules as everyone else, and enough people came to trade that FTX took off. “Having Alameda provide liquidity on FTX early on was the right decision, because I think that helped make FTX a great product for users, even though it obviously ended up backfiring,” Bankman-Fried tells me.</p><p>Part of FTX’s appeal was that it was mostly a derivatives exchange, which allowed customers to trade “on margin,” meaning with borrowed money. That’s a key to his defense. Bankman-Fried argues no one should be surprised that big traders on FTX, including Alameda, were borrowing from the exchange, and that his fund’s position just somehow got out of hand. “Everyone was borrowing and lending,” he says. “That’s been its calling card.” But FTX’s normal margin system, crypto traders tell me, would never have permitted anyone to accumulate a debt that looked like Alameda’s. When I ask if Alameda had to follow the same margin rules as other traders, he admits the fund did not. “There was more leeway,” he says.</p><p>That wouldn’t have been so important had Alameda stuck to its original trading strategy of relatively low-risk arbitrage trades. But in 2020 and 2021, as Bankman-Fried became the face of FTX, amajor political donorand a favorite of Silicon Valley, Alameda faced more competition in that market-making business. It shifted its strategy to, essentially, gambling on shitcoins.</p><p>As Caroline Ellison, then Alameda’s co-CEO, explained in aMarch 2021 post on Twitter: “The way to really make money is figure out when the market is going to go up and get balls long before that,” she wrote, adding that she’d learned the strategy from the classic market-manipulation memoir,<i>Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.</i>Her co-CEO said in another tweet that a profitable strategy was buying Dogecoin becauseElon Musktweeted about it.</p><p>The reason they were bragging about what sounded like a high schooler’s tactics was that it was working better than anyone knew. When we spoke in February 2022, Bankman-Fried told me that Alameda had made $1 billion the previous year. He now says that was Alameda’s arbitrage profits. On top of that, its shitcoins gained tens of billions of dollars of value, at least on paper. “If you mark everything to market, I do believe at one point my net worth got to $100 billion,” Bankman-Fried says.</p><p>Any trader would know this wasn’t nearly as good as it sounded. The large pile of tokens couldn’t be turned into cash without crashing the market. Much of it was even made of tokens that Bankman-Fried and his friends had spun up themselves, such as FTT, Serum or Maps—the official currency of a nonsensical crypto-meets-mapping app—or were closely affiliated with, like Solana. While Bankman-Fried acknowledges the pile was worth something less than $100 billion—maybe he’d mark it down a third, he says—he maintains that he could have extracted quite a lot of real money from his holdings.</p><p>But he didn’t. Instead, Alameda borrowed billions of dollars from other crypto lenders—not FTX—and sunk them into more crypto bets. Publicly, Bankman-Fried presented himself as an ethical operator andcalled for regulationto rein in crypto’s worst excesses. But through his hedge fund, he’d actually become the market’s most degenerate gambler. I ask him why, if he really thought he could sell the tokens, he didn’t. “Why not, like, take some risk off?”</p><p>“OK. In retrospect, absolutely. That would’ve been the right, like, unambiguously the right thing to do,” he says. “But also it was just, like, hilariously well-capitalized.”</p><p>Near the peak of the great shitcoin boom, in April 2022, FTX hosted a lavish conference at a resort and casino in Nassau. It was Bankman-Fried’s coming out party. He got to share the stage with quarterback Tom Brady. Also there: former Prime Minister Tony Blair and ex-President Bill Clinton, who extended a fatherly hand when the young crypto executive seemed nervous. The author Michael Lewis, who’s working on a book about Bankman-Fried, praised him in a fawning interview onstage. “You’re breaking land speed records. And I don’t think people are really noticing what’s happened, just how dramatic the revolution has become,” Lewis said, asking when crypto would take over Wall Street.</p><p>The next month, thecrypto crash began. It started when a popular set of coins called Terra and Luna collapsed, wiping out $60 billion. Terra and Luna were almost openly a Ponzi scheme, but some of the biggest crypto funds had invested in them with borrowed money and went bankrupt. This made the lenders who’d lent billions of dollars to Alameda nervous. They asked Alameda to repay the loans, with real money. It needed billions of dollars, fast, or it would go bust.</p><p>There are two different versions of what happened next. Two people with knowledge of the matter told me that Ellison, by then the sole head of Alameda, had told her side of the story to her staff amid the crisis. Ellison said that she, Bankman-Fried and his two top lieutenants—Gary Wang and Nishad Singh—had discussed the shortfall. Instead of admitting Alameda’s failure, they decided to use FTX customer funds to cover it, according to the people. If that’s true, all four executives would’ve knowingly committed fraud. (Ellison, Wang and Singh didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.)</p><p>When I put this to Bankman-Fried, he screws up his eyes, furrows his eyebrows, puts his hands in his hair and thinks for a few seconds.</p><p>“So, it’s not how I remember what happened,” Bankman-Fried says. But he surprises me by acknowledging that there had been a meeting, post-Luna crash, where they debated what to do about Alameda’s debts. The way he tells it, he was packing for a trip to DC and “only kibitzing on parts of the discussion.” It didn’t seem like a crisis, he says. It was a matter of extending a bit more credit to a fund that already traded on margin and still had a pile of collateral worth way more than enough to cover the loan. (Although the pile of collateral was largely shitcoins.)</p><p>“That was the point at which Alameda’s margin position on FTX got, well, it got more leveraged substantially,” he says. “Obviously, in retrospect, we should’ve just said no. I sort of didn’t realize then how large the position had gotten.”</p><p>“You were all aware there was a chance this would not work,” I say.</p><p>“That’s right,” he says. “But I thought that the risk was substantially smaller.”</p><p>I try to imagine what he could’ve been thinking. If FTX had liquidated Alameda’s position, the fund would’ve gone bankrupt, and even if the exchange didn’t take direct losses, customers would’ve lost confidence in it. Bankman-Fried points out that the companies that lent money to Alameda might have failed, too, causing a hard-to-predict cascade of events.</p><p>“Now let’s say you don’t margin call Alameda,” I posit. “Maybe you think there’s like a 70% chance everything will be OK, it’ll all work out?”</p><p>“Yes, but also in the cases where it didn’t work out, I thought the downside was not nearly as high as it was,” he says. “I thought that there was the risk of a much smaller hole. I thought it was going to be manageable.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried pulls out his laptop (an Acer Predator) and opens a spreadsheet to show what he meant. It’s similar to thebalance sheethe reportedly showed investors when he was seeking a last-minute bailout, which he says consolidated FTX and Alameda’s positions because by then the fund had defaulted on its debt. On one line—labeled “What I *thought*”—he lists $8.9 billion in debts and way more than enough money to pay them: $9 billion in liquid assets, $15.4 billion in “less liquid” assets and $3.2 billion in “illiquid” ones. He tells me this was more or less the position he was considering when he had the meeting with the other executives.</p><p>“It looks naively to me like, you know, there’s still some significant liabilities out there, but, like, we should be able to cover it,” he says.</p><p>“So what’s the problem, then?”</p><p>Bankman-Fried points to another place on the spreadsheet, which he says shows the actual truth of the situation at the time of the meeting. This one shows similar numbers, but with $8 billion less liquid assets.</p><p>“What’s the difference between these two rows here?” he asks.</p><p>“You didn’t have $8 billion in cash that you thought you had,” I say.</p><p>“That’s correct. Yes.”</p><p>“You misplaced $8 billion?” I ask.</p><p>“Misaccounted,” Bankman-Fried says, sounding almost proud of his explanation. Sometimes, he says, customers would wire money to Alameda Research instead of sending it directly to FTX. (Some banks were more willing to work with the hedge fund than the exchange, for some reason.) He claims that somehow, FTX’s internal accounting system double-counted this money, essentially crediting it to both the exchange and the fund.</p><p>That still doesn’t explain why the money was gone. “Where did the $8 billion go?” I ask.</p><p>To answer, Bankman-Fried creates a new tab on the spreadsheet and starts typing. He lists Alameda and FTX’s biggest cash flows. One of the biggest expenses is paying a net $2.5 billion toBinance, a rival, to buy out its investment in FTX. He also lists $250 million for real estate, $1.5 billion for expenses, $4 billion for venture capital investments, $1.5 billion for acquisitions and $1 billion labeled “fuckups.” Even accounting for both firms’ profits, and all the venture capital money raised by FTX, it tallies to negative $6.5 billion.</p><p>Bankman-Fried is telling me that the billions of dollars customers wired to Alameda is gone simply because the companies spent way more than they made. He claims he paid so little attention to his expenses that he didn’t realize he was spending more than he was taking in. “I was real lazy about this mental math,” the former physics major says. He creates another column in his spreadsheet and types in much lower numbers to show what he thought he was spending at the time.</p><p>It seems to me like he is, without saying it exactly, blaming his underlings for FTX’s failure, especially Ellison, the head of Alameda. The two had dated and lived together at times. She was part of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund, which was supposed to distribute FTX and Alameda’s earnings to effective-altruist-approved causes. It seems unlikely she would’ve blown billions of dollars without asking. “People might take, like, the TLDR as, like, it was my ex-girlfriend’s fault,” I tell him. “That is sort of what you’re saying.”</p><p>“I think the biggest failure was that it wasn’t entirely clear whose fault it was,” he says.</p><p>Bankman-Fried tells me he has to make a call. After a while, the sun goes down and I’m hungry. I’m allowed to join a group of Bankman-Fried’s supporters for dinner, as long as I don’t mention their names.</p><p>With the curtains drawn, the living room looks considerably less grand than it does in pictures. I’ve been told that FTX employees gathered here amid the crisis, while Bankman-Fried worked in another apartment. Addled by stress and sleep deprivation, they wept and hugged one another. Most didn’t say goodbye as they left the island, one by one. Many flew back to their childhood homes to be with their parents.</p><p>The supporters at the dinner tell me they feel like the press has been unfair. They say that Bankman-Fried and his friends weren’t the polyamorous partiers the tabloids have portrayed and that they did little besides work. Earlier in the week, a Bahamian man who’d served as FTX’s round-the-clock chauffeur and gofer also told me the reports weren’t true. “People make it seem like this big<i>Wolf of Wall Street</i>thing,” he said. “Bro, it was a bunch of nerds.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87535c118f069e782e80762398d0a9c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"1000\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Illustration: Maxime Mouysset for Bloomberg Businessweek</p><p>By the time I finish my plate of off-the-record rice and beans, Bankman-Fried is free again. We return to the study. He’s barefoot now, having balled up his gym socks and stuffed them behind a couch cushion. He lies on the couch, his computer on his lap. The light from the screen casts shadows of his curls on his forehead.</p><p>I notice a skin-colored patch on his arm. He tells me it’s a transdermal antidepressant, selegiline. I ask if he’s using it as a performance enhancer or to treat depression. “Nothing’s binary,” he says. “But I’ve been borderline depressed for my whole life.” He adds that he also sometimes takes Adderall—“10 milligrams at a time, a few times a day”—as did some of his colleagues, but that talk of drug use is overblown. “I don’t think that was the problem,” he says.</p><p>I tell Bankman-Fried my theory about his motivation, sidestepping the question of whether he misappropriated customer funds. Bankman-Fried denies that his world-saving goals made him willing to take giant gambles. As we talk more, it seems like he’s saying he made some kind of bet but hadn’t calculated the expected value properly.</p><p>“I was comfortable taking the risk that, like, I may end up kind of falling flat,” he says, staring at his computer screen, where he had pulled up a game and was leading an army of cartoon knights and fairies into battle. “But what actually happened was disastrously bad and, like, no significant chance of that happening would’ve made sense to risk, and that was a fuckup. Like, that was a mass miscalculation in downside.”</p><p>I read Bankman-Fried a post by Will MacAskill, one of the founders of the effective-altruism movement. He recruited Bankman-Fried into it when he was a junior at MIT and this year had joined the board of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund. On Nov. 11,MacAskill wrote on Twitterthat Bankman-Fried had betrayed him. “For years, the EA community has emphasized the importance of integrity, honesty and the respect of common-sense moral constraints,” MacAskill wrote. “If customer funds were misused, then Sam did not listen; he must have thought he was above such considerations.”</p><p>Bankman-Fried closes his eyes and pushes his toes against one arm of the couch, clenching the other arm with his hands. “That’s not how I view what happened,” he says. “But I did fuck up. I think really what I want to say is, like, I’m really fucking sorry. By far the worst thing about this is that it will tarnish the reputation of people who are dedicated to doing nothing but what they thought was best for the world.” Bankman-Fried trails off. On his computer screen, his army casts spells and swings swords unattended.</p><p>I ask what he’d say to people who are comparing him to the most famous Ponzi schemer of recent times. “Bernie Madoff also said he had good intentions and gave a lot to charity,” I say.</p><p>“FTX was a legitimate, profitable, thriving business. And I fucked up by, like, allowing a margin position to get too big on it. One that endangered the platform. It was a completely unnecessary and unforced error, which like maybe I got super unlucky on, but, like, that was my bad.”</p><p>“It fucking sucks,” he adds. “But it wasn’t inherent to what the business was. It was just a fuckup. A huge fuckup.”</p><p>To me, it doesn’t really seem like a fuckup. Even if I believe that he misplaced and accidentally spent $8 billion, he’s already told me that Alameda had been allowed to violate FTX’s margin rules. This wasn’t some little technical thing. He was so proud of FTX’s margining system that he’d been lobbying regulators for it to be used on US exchanges instead of traditional safeguards. In May, Bankman-Fried himself said on Twitter that exchanges should never extend credit to a fund and put other customers’ assets at risk. He wrote that the idea an exchange would even have that discretion was “scary.” I read him the tweets and ask: “Isn’t that, like, exactly what you did, right around that time?”</p><p>“Yeah, I guess that’s kind of fair,” he says. Then he seems to claim that this was evidence the rules he was lobbying for were a good idea. “I think this is one of the things that would have stopped.”</p><p>“You had a rule on your platform. You didn’t follow it,” I say.</p><p>By now it’s past midnight, and—operating without the benefit of any prescription stimulants—I’m worn out. I ask Bankman-Fried if I can see the apartment’s deck before I leave. Outside, crickets chirp as we stand by the pool. The marina is dark, lit only by the spotlights of yachts. As I say goodbye, Bankman-Fried bites into a burger bun and starts talking about potential bailouts with one of his supporters.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n11 Hours With Sam Bankman-Fried: Inside the Bahamian Penthouse After FTX’s Fall\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-03 07:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-02/inside-sam-bankman-fried-s-bahamian-penthouse-after-ftx-s-collapse?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152464265","content_text":"Sam Bankman-Fried’s $30 million Bahamas penthouse looks like a dorm after the students have left for winter break. The dishwasher is full. Towels are piled in the laundry room. Bat streamers from a Halloween party are still hanging from a doorway. Two boxes of Legos sit on the floor of one bedroom. And then there are the shoes—dozens of sneakers and heels piled in the foyer, left behind by employees who fled the island of New Providence last month when his cryptocurrency exchangeFTX imploded.“It’s been an interesting few weeks,” Bankman-Fried says in a chipper tone as he greets me. It’s a muggy Saturday afternoon, eight days after FTX filed for bankruptcy. He’s shoeless, in white gym socks, a red T-shirt and wrinkled khaki shorts. His standard uniform.This isn’t part of the typical tour Bankman-Fried gave to the many reporters who came to tell the tale of the boy-genius-crypto-billionaire who slept on a beanbag chair next to his desk and only got rich so he could give it all away, and it’s easy to see why. The apartment is at the top of one of the luxury condo buildings that border a marina in a gated community called Albany. Outside, deckhands buff the stanchions of a 200-foot yacht owned by a fracking billionaire. A bronze replica of Wall Street’sCharging Bullstatue stands on the lawn, which is as manicured as the residents. I feel like I’ve crash-landed on an alien planet populated solely by the very rich and the people who work for them.Bankman-Fried leads me down a marble-floored hallway to a small bedroom, where he perches on a plush brown couch. Always known for being jittery, he taps his foot so hard it rattles a coffee table, smacks gum and rubs his index finger with his thumb like he’s twirling an invisible fidget spinner. But he seems almost cheerful as he explains why he’s invited me into his 12,000-square-foot bolthole, against the advice of his lawyers, even as investigators from theUS Department of Justice probewhether he used customers’ funds to prop up his hedge fund, a crime that could send him to prison for years. (Spoiler alert: It sure looks like he did.)“What I’m focusing on is what I can do, right now, to try and make things as right as possible,” Bankman-Fried says. “I can’t do that if I’m just focused on covering my ass.”But he seems to be doing just that, with me here and all along the apology tour he’ll later embark on, which will include a video appearance at aNew York Timesconference and an interview onGood Morning America. He’s been trying to blame his firm’s failure on a hazy combination of comically poor bookkeeping, wildly misjudged risks and complete ignorance of what his hedge fund was doing. In other words, an alumnus of both MIT and the elite Wall Street trading firmJane Streetis arguing that he was just dumb with the numbers—not pulling a conscious fraud. Talking in detail to journalists about what’s certain to be the subject of extensive litigation seems like an unusual strategy, but it makes sense: The press helped him create his only-honest-man-in-crypto image, so why not use them to talk his way out of trouble?Bankman-Fried after an interview onBloomberg Wealth With David Rubensteinon Aug. 17, 2022.Photographer: Jeenah Moon/BloombergHe doesn’t say so, but one reason he might be willing to speak with me is that I’m one of the reporters who helped build him up. After spending two days at FTX’s offices in February, I flew past the brightred flagsat his company—its lack of corporate governance, the ties to his Alameda Research hedge fund, its profligate spending on marketing, the fact that it operated largely outside US jurisdiction. Iwrote a storyfocused on whether Bankman-Fried would follow through on his plans to donate huge sums to charity and his connections to an unusual philanthropic movement calledeffective altruism.It wasn’t the most embarrassingly puffy of the many puff pieces that came out about him. (“After my interview with SBF, I was convinced: I was talking to a future trillionaire,” one writer said in an article commissioned by a venture capital firm.) But my tone wasn’t entirely dissimilar. “Bankman-Fried is a thought experiment from a college philosophy seminar come to life,” I wrote. “Should someone who wants to save the world first amass as much money and power as possible, or will the pursuit corrupt him along the way?” Now it seems pretty clear that a better question would’ve been whether the business was ascam from the start.I tell Bankman-Fried I want to talk about the decisions that led to FTX’s collapse, and why he took them. Earlier in the week, inlate-night DM exchangeswith aVoxreporter and on a phone call with a YouTuber, he made comments that many interpreted as an admission that everything he said was a lie. (“So the ethics stuff, mostly a front?” theVoxreporter asked. “Yeah,” Bankman-Fried replied.) He’d spoken so cynically about his motivations that to many it seemed like a comic book character was pulling off his mask to reveal the villain who’d been hiding there all along.I set out on this visit with a different working theory. Maybe I was feeling the tug of my past reporting, but I still didn’t think the talk about charity was all made up. Since he was a teenager, Bankman-Fried has described himself as utilitarian—following the philosophy that the correct action is the one likely to result in the greatest good for the greatest number of people. He said his endgame was making and donating enough money to prevent pandemics and stop runaway artificial intelligence from destroying humanity. Faced with a crisis, and believing he was the hero of his own sci-fi movie, he might’ve thought it was right to make a crazy, even illegal, gamble to save his company.To be clear, if that’s what happened, it’s the logic of a megalomaniac, not a martyr. The money wasn’t his to gamble with, and “the ends justify the means” is a cliché of bad ethics. But if it’s what he believed, he might still think he’d made the right decision, even if it didn’t work out. It seemed to me that’s what he meant when he messagedVox, “The worst quadrant is sketchy + lose. The best is win + ???” I want to probe that, in part because it might get him to talk more candidly about what had happened to his customers’ money.I decide to approach the topic gingerly, on terms I think he’ll relate to, as it seems he’s in less of a crime-confess-y mood. He’s said he likes to evaluate decisions in terms of expected value—the odds of success times the likely payoff—so I begin by asking: “Should I judge you by your impact, or by the expected value of your decision?”“When all is said and done, what matters is your actual realized impact. Like, that’s what actually matters to the world,” he says. “But, obviously, there’s luck.”That’s the in I’m looking for. For the next 11 hours—with breaks for fundraising calls and a very awkward dinner—I try to get him to tell me exactly what he meant. He denies that he’s committed fraud or lied to anyone and blames FTX’s failure on his sloppiness and inattention. But at points it seems like he’s saying he gotunlucky, or miscalculated the odds.Bankman-Fried tells me he’s still got a chance to raise $8 billion to save his company. He seems delusional, or committed to pretending this is still an error he can fix, and either way, the few supporters remaining at his penthouse seem unlikely to set him straight. The grim scene reminds me a bit of the end ofScarface, with Tony Montana holed up in his mansion, semi-incoherent, his unknown enemies sneaking closer. But instead of mountains of cocaine, Bankman-Fried is clinging to spreadsheet tabs filled with wildly optimistic cryptocurrency valuations.Think of FTX like an offshore casino. Customers sent in money, then gambled on the price of hundreds ofcryptocurrencies—not just Bitcoin or Ether, but more obscure coins. In crypto slang, the latter are called shitcoins, because almost no one knows what they’re for. But in the past few years, otherwise respectable people, from retired dentists to heads of state, convinced themselves that these coins werethe future of finance. Or at least that enough other people might think so to make the price go up. Bankman-Fried’s casino was growing so fast that earlier this year some of Silicon Valley’s top venture capitalists invested in it at a $32 billion valuation.The problem surfaced last month. After a rival crypto-casino kingpin raised concerns about FTX on Twitter, customers rushed to cash in their chips. But when Bankman-Fried’s casino opened the vault, their money wasn’t there. According to multiple news reports citing people familiar with the matter, it had been secretly lent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, which had lost it in some mix of bad bets, insane spending and perhaps something even sketchier. John Ray III, the lawyer who’s now chief executive officer of the bankrupt exchange, has alleged in court that FTX covered up the loans using secret software.Bankman-Fried denies this again to me. Returning to the framework of expected value, I ask him if the decisions he made were correct.“I think that I’ve made a lot of plus-EV decisions and a few very large boneheaded decisions,” he says. “Certainly in retrospect, those very large decisions were very bad, and may end up overwhelming everything else.”The chain of events, in his telling, started about four years ago. Bankman-Fried was in Hong Kong, where he’d moved from Berkeley, California, with a small group of friends from the effective-altruism community. Together they ran a successful startup crypto hedge fund,Alameda Research. (The name itself was an early example of his casual attitude toward rules—it was chosen to avoid scrutiny from banks, which frequently closed its accounts. “If we named our company like, Shitcoin Daytraders Inc., they’d probably just reject us,” Bankman-Fried told a podcaster in 2021. “But, I mean, no one doesn’t like research.”)The fund had made millions of dollars exploiting inefficiencies across cryptocurrency exchanges. (Ex-employees, even those otherwise critical of Bankman-Fried, have said this is true, though some have said Alameda then lost some of that money because of bad trades and mismanagement.) Bankman-Fried and his friends began considering starting their own exchange—what would become FTX.The way Bankman-Fried later described this decision reveals his attitude toward risk. He estimated there was an 80% chance the exchange would fail to attract enough customers. But he’s said one should always take a bet, even a long-shot one, if the expected value is positive, calling this stance “risk neutral.” But it actually meant he would take risks that to a normal person sound insane. “As an individual, to make a bet where it’s like, ‘I’m going to gamble my $10 billion and either get $20 billion or $0, with equal probability,’ would be madness,” Rob Wiblin, host of an effective-altruism podcast, said to Bankman-Fried in April. “But from an altruistic point of view, it’s not so crazy.”“Completely agree,” Bankman-Fried replied. He told another interviewer that he’d make a bet described as a chance of “51% you double the earth out somewhere else, 49% it all disappears.”Bankman-Fried and his friends jump-started FTX by having Alameda provide liquidity. It was a huge conflict of interest. Imagine if the top executives at an online poker site also entered its high-stakes tournaments—the temptation to cheat by peeking at other players’ cards would be huge. But Bankman-Fried assured customers that Alameda would play by the same rules as everyone else, and enough people came to trade that FTX took off. “Having Alameda provide liquidity on FTX early on was the right decision, because I think that helped make FTX a great product for users, even though it obviously ended up backfiring,” Bankman-Fried tells me.Part of FTX’s appeal was that it was mostly a derivatives exchange, which allowed customers to trade “on margin,” meaning with borrowed money. That’s a key to his defense. Bankman-Fried argues no one should be surprised that big traders on FTX, including Alameda, were borrowing from the exchange, and that his fund’s position just somehow got out of hand. “Everyone was borrowing and lending,” he says. “That’s been its calling card.” But FTX’s normal margin system, crypto traders tell me, would never have permitted anyone to accumulate a debt that looked like Alameda’s. When I ask if Alameda had to follow the same margin rules as other traders, he admits the fund did not. “There was more leeway,” he says.That wouldn’t have been so important had Alameda stuck to its original trading strategy of relatively low-risk arbitrage trades. But in 2020 and 2021, as Bankman-Fried became the face of FTX, amajor political donorand a favorite of Silicon Valley, Alameda faced more competition in that market-making business. It shifted its strategy to, essentially, gambling on shitcoins.As Caroline Ellison, then Alameda’s co-CEO, explained in aMarch 2021 post on Twitter: “The way to really make money is figure out when the market is going to go up and get balls long before that,” she wrote, adding that she’d learned the strategy from the classic market-manipulation memoir,Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.Her co-CEO said in another tweet that a profitable strategy was buying Dogecoin becauseElon Musktweeted about it.The reason they were bragging about what sounded like a high schooler’s tactics was that it was working better than anyone knew. When we spoke in February 2022, Bankman-Fried told me that Alameda had made $1 billion the previous year. He now says that was Alameda’s arbitrage profits. On top of that, its shitcoins gained tens of billions of dollars of value, at least on paper. “If you mark everything to market, I do believe at one point my net worth got to $100 billion,” Bankman-Fried says.Any trader would know this wasn’t nearly as good as it sounded. The large pile of tokens couldn’t be turned into cash without crashing the market. Much of it was even made of tokens that Bankman-Fried and his friends had spun up themselves, such as FTT, Serum or Maps—the official currency of a nonsensical crypto-meets-mapping app—or were closely affiliated with, like Solana. While Bankman-Fried acknowledges the pile was worth something less than $100 billion—maybe he’d mark it down a third, he says—he maintains that he could have extracted quite a lot of real money from his holdings.But he didn’t. Instead, Alameda borrowed billions of dollars from other crypto lenders—not FTX—and sunk them into more crypto bets. Publicly, Bankman-Fried presented himself as an ethical operator andcalled for regulationto rein in crypto’s worst excesses. But through his hedge fund, he’d actually become the market’s most degenerate gambler. I ask him why, if he really thought he could sell the tokens, he didn’t. “Why not, like, take some risk off?”“OK. In retrospect, absolutely. That would’ve been the right, like, unambiguously the right thing to do,” he says. “But also it was just, like, hilariously well-capitalized.”Near the peak of the great shitcoin boom, in April 2022, FTX hosted a lavish conference at a resort and casino in Nassau. It was Bankman-Fried’s coming out party. He got to share the stage with quarterback Tom Brady. Also there: former Prime Minister Tony Blair and ex-President Bill Clinton, who extended a fatherly hand when the young crypto executive seemed nervous. The author Michael Lewis, who’s working on a book about Bankman-Fried, praised him in a fawning interview onstage. “You’re breaking land speed records. And I don’t think people are really noticing what’s happened, just how dramatic the revolution has become,” Lewis said, asking when crypto would take over Wall Street.The next month, thecrypto crash began. It started when a popular set of coins called Terra and Luna collapsed, wiping out $60 billion. Terra and Luna were almost openly a Ponzi scheme, but some of the biggest crypto funds had invested in them with borrowed money and went bankrupt. This made the lenders who’d lent billions of dollars to Alameda nervous. They asked Alameda to repay the loans, with real money. It needed billions of dollars, fast, or it would go bust.There are two different versions of what happened next. Two people with knowledge of the matter told me that Ellison, by then the sole head of Alameda, had told her side of the story to her staff amid the crisis. Ellison said that she, Bankman-Fried and his two top lieutenants—Gary Wang and Nishad Singh—had discussed the shortfall. Instead of admitting Alameda’s failure, they decided to use FTX customer funds to cover it, according to the people. If that’s true, all four executives would’ve knowingly committed fraud. (Ellison, Wang and Singh didn’t respond to messages seeking comment.)When I put this to Bankman-Fried, he screws up his eyes, furrows his eyebrows, puts his hands in his hair and thinks for a few seconds.“So, it’s not how I remember what happened,” Bankman-Fried says. But he surprises me by acknowledging that there had been a meeting, post-Luna crash, where they debated what to do about Alameda’s debts. The way he tells it, he was packing for a trip to DC and “only kibitzing on parts of the discussion.” It didn’t seem like a crisis, he says. It was a matter of extending a bit more credit to a fund that already traded on margin and still had a pile of collateral worth way more than enough to cover the loan. (Although the pile of collateral was largely shitcoins.)“That was the point at which Alameda’s margin position on FTX got, well, it got more leveraged substantially,” he says. “Obviously, in retrospect, we should’ve just said no. I sort of didn’t realize then how large the position had gotten.”“You were all aware there was a chance this would not work,” I say.“That’s right,” he says. “But I thought that the risk was substantially smaller.”I try to imagine what he could’ve been thinking. If FTX had liquidated Alameda’s position, the fund would’ve gone bankrupt, and even if the exchange didn’t take direct losses, customers would’ve lost confidence in it. Bankman-Fried points out that the companies that lent money to Alameda might have failed, too, causing a hard-to-predict cascade of events.“Now let’s say you don’t margin call Alameda,” I posit. “Maybe you think there’s like a 70% chance everything will be OK, it’ll all work out?”“Yes, but also in the cases where it didn’t work out, I thought the downside was not nearly as high as it was,” he says. “I thought that there was the risk of a much smaller hole. I thought it was going to be manageable.”Bankman-Fried pulls out his laptop (an Acer Predator) and opens a spreadsheet to show what he meant. It’s similar to thebalance sheethe reportedly showed investors when he was seeking a last-minute bailout, which he says consolidated FTX and Alameda’s positions because by then the fund had defaulted on its debt. On one line—labeled “What I *thought*”—he lists $8.9 billion in debts and way more than enough money to pay them: $9 billion in liquid assets, $15.4 billion in “less liquid” assets and $3.2 billion in “illiquid” ones. He tells me this was more or less the position he was considering when he had the meeting with the other executives.“It looks naively to me like, you know, there’s still some significant liabilities out there, but, like, we should be able to cover it,” he says.“So what’s the problem, then?”Bankman-Fried points to another place on the spreadsheet, which he says shows the actual truth of the situation at the time of the meeting. This one shows similar numbers, but with $8 billion less liquid assets.“What’s the difference between these two rows here?” he asks.“You didn’t have $8 billion in cash that you thought you had,” I say.“That’s correct. Yes.”“You misplaced $8 billion?” I ask.“Misaccounted,” Bankman-Fried says, sounding almost proud of his explanation. Sometimes, he says, customers would wire money to Alameda Research instead of sending it directly to FTX. (Some banks were more willing to work with the hedge fund than the exchange, for some reason.) He claims that somehow, FTX’s internal accounting system double-counted this money, essentially crediting it to both the exchange and the fund.That still doesn’t explain why the money was gone. “Where did the $8 billion go?” I ask.To answer, Bankman-Fried creates a new tab on the spreadsheet and starts typing. He lists Alameda and FTX’s biggest cash flows. One of the biggest expenses is paying a net $2.5 billion toBinance, a rival, to buy out its investment in FTX. He also lists $250 million for real estate, $1.5 billion for expenses, $4 billion for venture capital investments, $1.5 billion for acquisitions and $1 billion labeled “fuckups.” Even accounting for both firms’ profits, and all the venture capital money raised by FTX, it tallies to negative $6.5 billion.Bankman-Fried is telling me that the billions of dollars customers wired to Alameda is gone simply because the companies spent way more than they made. He claims he paid so little attention to his expenses that he didn’t realize he was spending more than he was taking in. “I was real lazy about this mental math,” the former physics major says. He creates another column in his spreadsheet and types in much lower numbers to show what he thought he was spending at the time.It seems to me like he is, without saying it exactly, blaming his underlings for FTX’s failure, especially Ellison, the head of Alameda. The two had dated and lived together at times. She was part of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund, which was supposed to distribute FTX and Alameda’s earnings to effective-altruist-approved causes. It seems unlikely she would’ve blown billions of dollars without asking. “People might take, like, the TLDR as, like, it was my ex-girlfriend’s fault,” I tell him. “That is sort of what you’re saying.”“I think the biggest failure was that it wasn’t entirely clear whose fault it was,” he says.Bankman-Fried tells me he has to make a call. After a while, the sun goes down and I’m hungry. I’m allowed to join a group of Bankman-Fried’s supporters for dinner, as long as I don’t mention their names.With the curtains drawn, the living room looks considerably less grand than it does in pictures. I’ve been told that FTX employees gathered here amid the crisis, while Bankman-Fried worked in another apartment. Addled by stress and sleep deprivation, they wept and hugged one another. Most didn’t say goodbye as they left the island, one by one. Many flew back to their childhood homes to be with their parents.The supporters at the dinner tell me they feel like the press has been unfair. They say that Bankman-Fried and his friends weren’t the polyamorous partiers the tabloids have portrayed and that they did little besides work. Earlier in the week, a Bahamian man who’d served as FTX’s round-the-clock chauffeur and gofer also told me the reports weren’t true. “People make it seem like this bigWolf of Wall Streetthing,” he said. “Bro, it was a bunch of nerds.”Illustration: Maxime Mouysset for Bloomberg BusinessweekBy the time I finish my plate of off-the-record rice and beans, Bankman-Fried is free again. We return to the study. He’s barefoot now, having balled up his gym socks and stuffed them behind a couch cushion. He lies on the couch, his computer on his lap. The light from the screen casts shadows of his curls on his forehead.I notice a skin-colored patch on his arm. He tells me it’s a transdermal antidepressant, selegiline. I ask if he’s using it as a performance enhancer or to treat depression. “Nothing’s binary,” he says. “But I’ve been borderline depressed for my whole life.” He adds that he also sometimes takes Adderall—“10 milligrams at a time, a few times a day”—as did some of his colleagues, but that talk of drug use is overblown. “I don’t think that was the problem,” he says.I tell Bankman-Fried my theory about his motivation, sidestepping the question of whether he misappropriated customer funds. Bankman-Fried denies that his world-saving goals made him willing to take giant gambles. As we talk more, it seems like he’s saying he made some kind of bet but hadn’t calculated the expected value properly.“I was comfortable taking the risk that, like, I may end up kind of falling flat,” he says, staring at his computer screen, where he had pulled up a game and was leading an army of cartoon knights and fairies into battle. “But what actually happened was disastrously bad and, like, no significant chance of that happening would’ve made sense to risk, and that was a fuckup. Like, that was a mass miscalculation in downside.”I read Bankman-Fried a post by Will MacAskill, one of the founders of the effective-altruism movement. He recruited Bankman-Fried into it when he was a junior at MIT and this year had joined the board of Bankman-Fried’s Future Fund. On Nov. 11,MacAskill wrote on Twitterthat Bankman-Fried had betrayed him. “For years, the EA community has emphasized the importance of integrity, honesty and the respect of common-sense moral constraints,” MacAskill wrote. “If customer funds were misused, then Sam did not listen; he must have thought he was above such considerations.”Bankman-Fried closes his eyes and pushes his toes against one arm of the couch, clenching the other arm with his hands. “That’s not how I view what happened,” he says. “But I did fuck up. I think really what I want to say is, like, I’m really fucking sorry. By far the worst thing about this is that it will tarnish the reputation of people who are dedicated to doing nothing but what they thought was best for the world.” Bankman-Fried trails off. On his computer screen, his army casts spells and swings swords unattended.I ask what he’d say to people who are comparing him to the most famous Ponzi schemer of recent times. “Bernie Madoff also said he had good intentions and gave a lot to charity,” I say.“FTX was a legitimate, profitable, thriving business. And I fucked up by, like, allowing a margin position to get too big on it. One that endangered the platform. It was a completely unnecessary and unforced error, which like maybe I got super unlucky on, but, like, that was my bad.”“It fucking sucks,” he adds. “But it wasn’t inherent to what the business was. It was just a fuckup. A huge fuckup.”To me, it doesn’t really seem like a fuckup. Even if I believe that he misplaced and accidentally spent $8 billion, he’s already told me that Alameda had been allowed to violate FTX’s margin rules. This wasn’t some little technical thing. He was so proud of FTX’s margining system that he’d been lobbying regulators for it to be used on US exchanges instead of traditional safeguards. In May, Bankman-Fried himself said on Twitter that exchanges should never extend credit to a fund and put other customers’ assets at risk. He wrote that the idea an exchange would even have that discretion was “scary.” I read him the tweets and ask: “Isn’t that, like, exactly what you did, right around that time?”“Yeah, I guess that’s kind of fair,” he says. Then he seems to claim that this was evidence the rules he was lobbying for were a good idea. “I think this is one of the things that would have stopped.”“You had a rule on your platform. You didn’t follow it,” I say.By now it’s past midnight, and—operating without the benefit of any prescription stimulants—I’m worn out. I ask Bankman-Fried if I can see the apartment’s deck before I leave. Outside, crickets chirp as we stand by the pool. The marina is dark, lit only by the spotlights of yachts. As I say goodbye, Bankman-Fried bites into a burger bun and starts talking about potential bailouts with one of his supporters.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}