kel0508 personal page - To The Moon

kel0508

kel0508

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2022-06-15

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2022-05-26

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2022-03-19

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2022-01-14

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2022-11-27

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2022-01-21

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2022-01-16

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2022-08-05

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2022-07-04

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Long, Moderate and Painful: What Next US Recession May Look Like

2022-06-09

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2022-05-25

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Tiger Chart | A History of S&P 500 Bear Markets Since 1929

2022-02-21

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PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week

2022-01-19

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2021-08-07

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Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Jordan Belfort, The Boiler Room Wolf

2022-09-18

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2022-08-21

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2022-07-11

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2022-06-21

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2022-04-14

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2022-03-27

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Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the "Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead"

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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One observation I made is that it has been moving within a range of $48 to $65 since June 2022. In this post, I will explain my strategy for trading Micron ahead of its earnings, and why I expect the stock to remain within its current range. Micron (MU) Overview Micron Technology, Inc. is an American multinational corporation that produces many forms of computer memory and data storage, including DRAM, SDRAM, flash memory, and solid-state drives (SSDs). Micron is an industry leader in memory technology and is a vital component of many electronic devices. MU has been trading between $48 and $654 since June 2022 Based on the day chart above, the stock has been trading","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a> is set to report its earnings today after the market close. One observation I made is that it has been moving within a range of $48 to $65 since June 2022. In this post, I will explain my strategy for trading Micron ahead of its earnings, and why I expect the stock to remain within its current range. Micron (MU) Overview Micron Technology, Inc. is an American multinational corporation that produces many forms of computer memory and data storage, including DRAM, SDRAM, flash memory, and solid-state drives (SSDs). Micron is an industry leader in memory technology and is a vital component of many electronic devices. MU has been trading between $48 and $654 since June 2022 Based on the day chart above, the stock has been trading","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$ is set to report its earnings today after the market close. One observation I made is that it has been moving within a range of $48 to $65 since June 2022. In this post, I will explain my strategy for trading Micron ahead of its earnings, and why I expect the stock to remain within its current range. Micron (MU) Overview Micron Technology, Inc. is an American multinational corporation that produces many forms of computer memory and data storage, including DRAM, SDRAM, flash memory, and solid-state drives (SSDs). Micron is an industry leader in memory technology and is a vital component of many electronic devices. MU has been trading between $48 and $654 since June 2022 Based on the day chart above, the stock has been trading","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d5b6a71ef28cf2dbb535864f2919e1d","width":"225","height":"225"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a43dabcb7d810e7d2d3b4f9104d8b56c","width":"1725","height":"675"},{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2a1c8db0e64e508f5d83ecfda9edb1e5","width":"2048","height":"1064"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941322994","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957269421,"gmtCreate":1677291390363,"gmtModify":1677291394568,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"S&amp;P FTW! please roar up high&nbsp;","listText":"S&amp;P FTW! please roar up high&nbsp;","text":"S&P FTW! please roar up high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957269421","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966620636,"gmtCreate":1669520581125,"gmtModify":1676538204327,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966620636","repostId":"2286418053","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912521763,"gmtCreate":1664856746053,"gmtModify":1676537520039,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alright","listText":"Alright","text":"Alright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912521763","repostId":"9912523234","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9912523234,"gmtCreate":1664856320929,"gmtModify":1676537519969,"author":{"id":"3583897064119156","authorId":"3583897064119156","name":"vcvcbc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90dcd0f544e6b3d9d7fbe65dbe16a0d3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583897064119156","authorIdStr":"3583897064119156"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Credit Suisse in Market Spotlight Despite Moves to Calm Concerns Reuters 2022-10-04 08:00 Credit Suisse Group AG +0.25% Post Summary Credit Suisse caught in market turbulence ahead of revamp Shares fell as much as 11.5% before recouping losses Bank's euro-denominated bonds reach record lows Swiss bank says its capital, liquidity are strong (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S) saw its shares slide by as much as 11.5% and its bonds hit record lows on Monday before clawing back some of the losses amid concerns about the lender’s ability to restructure its business without asking for more money. The situation prompted Swiss regulator FINMA and the Bank of England in London, where the lender has a major hub, to monitor what was happening and work closely together, one source familiar wit","listText":"Credit Suisse in Market Spotlight Despite Moves to Calm Concerns Reuters 2022-10-04 08:00 Credit Suisse Group AG +0.25% Post Summary Credit Suisse caught in market turbulence ahead of revamp Shares fell as much as 11.5% before recouping losses Bank's euro-denominated bonds reach record lows Swiss bank says its capital, liquidity are strong (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S) saw its shares slide by as much as 11.5% and its bonds hit record lows on Monday before clawing back some of the losses amid concerns about the lender’s ability to restructure its business without asking for more money. The situation prompted Swiss regulator FINMA and the Bank of England in London, where the lender has a major hub, to monitor what was happening and work closely together, one source familiar wit","text":"Credit Suisse in Market Spotlight Despite Moves to Calm Concerns Reuters 2022-10-04 08:00 Credit Suisse Group AG +0.25% Post Summary Credit Suisse caught in market turbulence ahead of revamp Shares fell as much as 11.5% before recouping losses Bank's euro-denominated bonds reach record lows Swiss bank says its capital, liquidity are strong (Reuters) - Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S) saw its shares slide by as much as 11.5% and its bonds hit record lows on Monday before clawing back some of the losses amid concerns about the lender’s ability to restructure its business without asking for more money. The situation prompted Swiss regulator FINMA and the Bank of England in London, where the lender has a major hub, to monitor what was happening and work closely together, one source familiar wit","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912523234","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916476922,"gmtCreate":1664674847166,"gmtModify":1676537491824,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916476922","repostId":"1130379601","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916306951,"gmtCreate":1664503844273,"gmtModify":1676537467523,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916306951","repostId":"1188324957","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911164670,"gmtCreate":1664157776590,"gmtModify":1676537399088,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True&nbsp;","listText":"True&nbsp;","text":"True","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911164670","repostId":"9911956771","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9911956771,"gmtCreate":1664122466994,"gmtModify":1676537393404,"author":{"id":"3479274781024327","authorId":"3479274781024327","name":"Stock 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047684877","repostId":"1184947522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184947522","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656889883,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1184947522?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-04 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Long, Moderate and Painful: What Next US Recession May Look Like","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184947522","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"US lacks buildup of leverage that preceded past deep downturnsBut Fed may not ride to rescue, given ","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>US lacks buildup of leverage that preceded past deep downturns</li><li>But Fed may not ride to rescue, given its inflation mission</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021a26498981299d3d83215f432685b8\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"667\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Recessions, like unhappy families, are each painful in their own way.</p><p>And the next one -- which economists see as increasingly possible by the end of next year -- will probably bear that out. A US downturn may well be modest, but it might also be long.</p><p>Many observers expect any decline to be a lot less wrenching than the 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis and the back-to-back downturns seen in the 1980s, when inflation was last this high. The economy is simply not as far out of whack as it was in those earlier periods, they say.</p><h2>America&#39;s Post-WWII Recessions</h2><p>Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Economic Analysis</p><p>Note: Dates denote starts of recessions. BEA lists 2001 as 0.5% rise in GDP.</p><p>While the recession may be moderate, it could end up lasting longer than the abbreviated, eight-month contractions of 1990-91 and 2001. That’s because elevated inflation may hold the Federal Reserve back from rushing to reverse the downturn.</p><p>“The good news is there’s a limit to how severe it’s going to be,” said Nomura Securities senior US economist Robert Dent. “The bad news is it’s going to be prolonged.” The former New York Fed analyst sees a roughly 2% contraction that begins in the fourth quarter and lasts through next year.</p><p>No matter what shape the pullback takes, one thing seems certain: There will be a lot of hurt when it comes. In the dozen recessions since World War II, on average the economy contracted by 2.5%, unemployment rose about 3.8 percentage points and corporate profits fell some 15%. The average length was 10 months.</p><p>Even a downturn on the shallower end of the spectrum would likely see hundreds of thousands of Americans -- at least -- lose their jobs. The batteredstock marketmay suffer a further fall as earnings drop. And President Joe Biden’s already poor pollratingscould take another hit.</p><p>“This would be the sixth or seventh recession, I think, since I started doing this,” private-equity veteran Scott Sperling said. “Every one of them is somewhat different, and every one of them feels equally painful.”</p><p>Signs of economic weakness are multiplying, with personalspendingfalling in May for the first time this year, after accounting for inflation, and a US manufacturing gauge hitting atwo-year lowin June. JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. chief US economist Michael Feroli responded to the latest data by cutting his mid-year growth forecasts “perilously closeto a recession.”</p><p>The depth and length of the recession will largely be determined by how persistent inflation proves to be, and by how much pain the Fed is willing to inflict on the economy to bring it down to levels it deems acceptable.</p><h2>Inflation Genie</h2><p>Allianz SE chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian said he’s worried about a stop-go scenario akin to the 1970s, where the Fed prematurely eases policy in response to economic weakness before it has eradicated inflation from the system.</p><p>Such a strategy would set the stage for a deeper economic decline down the road, and even greater inequality, the Bloomberg Opinion columnist said. El-Erian was out front in warning last year the Fed was making a big blunder by playing down the inflationary threat.</p><blockquote>“The Fed is not going to pause until they see that inflation has convincingly come down. That means that this Fed will be hiking well into economic weakness, likely prolonging the duration of the recession.”</blockquote><blockquote>-- Anna Wong, chief US economist</blockquote><p>For his part, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hasarguedthat while there’s a risk of a recession, the economy is still in good enough shape to withstand the Fed’s interest-rate hikes and dodge a downturn.</p><p>A growing number of private economists aren’t convinced.</p><p>“A faltering economy is all but inevitable,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel Nicolaus &amp; Co. “The question has moved beyond if we are going to see a recession to what’s the depth and duration of a downturn.”</p><p>Just as happened some 40 years ago, the decline in gross domestic product will be driven by a central bank determined to rein in runaway consumer prices. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is more than triple its 2% objective.</p><p>But there are good reasons to expect the outcome won’t be nearly as bad as the early 1980s, or the 2007-09 financial crisis -- episodes when unemployment soared to double-digit levels.</p><p>As Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief economist Jan Hatzius has noted, inflation isn’t as embedded in the economy or in Americans’ psyche as it was when Paul Volcker took the helm of the Fed in 1979 after a decade of persistently powerful price pressures. So it won’t take nearly as big of a slump for today’s Fed to bring price rises down to more acceptable levels.</p><p>Prominent academic economist Robert Gordonreckonsthe Fed’s task today requires about half the amount of disinflation that Volcker had to put the economy through.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3898720ca3ef960db90583d02e46e080\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>What’s more, consumers, banks and the housing market are all better placed to weather economic turbulence than they were ahead of the 2007-09 recession.</p><p>“Private-sector balance sheets are in good shape,” said Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti. “We haven’t seen leverage taken out to the extent that we saw” ahead of the financial crisis.</p><p>Thanks in part to hefty government handouts that boosted savings, household debt obligations amounted to just 9.5% of disposable personal income in the first quarter, according to Feddata. That’s well below the 13.2% seen in late 2007.</p><p>Banks, for their part, recentlyacedthe Fed’s latest stress test, proving they have the wherewithal to withstand a nasty combination of surging unemployment, collapsing real-estate prices and a plunge in stocks.</p><h2>Housing Market</h2><p>And while housing has been battered of late by the Fed-engineered surge in mortgage rates, it too is in a better place than 2006-07, when it was awash with supply due to a speculative building boom.</p><p>Today the US is about 2 million housing units “short of what our demographic profile would suggest at this point,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae. “That puts a floor to some degree under how big a recession could be.”</p><p>Duncan’s base case is for a sharp depreciation in home-price increases, but not an outright decline.</p><p>In the labor market, an underlying shortage of workers -- thanks to baby boomers retiring and immigration lagging -- is likely to make companies more cautious about shedding staff in a downturn, especially if it’s a mild one.</p><p>“The story of the past two years has been businesses struggling to find workers,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment Bank. “We don’t think you’re going to see mass layoffs.”</p><p>Some economists say the next recession will prove long-lived, however, if the Fed holds back from riding to the economy’s rescue -- as it’s signaled it might if inflation stays stubbornly high.</p><p>Powelltolda central banking conference last week that failing to restore price stability would be a “bigger mistake” than pushing the US into a recession.</p><p>Fiscal policy will also be hamstrung -- and could well turn contractionary -- if Republicans win back power in Congress, as looks likely in November midterm elections. In an echo of what happened after the financial crisis, GOP lawmakers might use debt-limit standoffs to push for cuts in government spending.</p><p>While not predicting a downturn, JPMorgan’s Feroli agreed a recession may be lengthy if one occurred. That would particularly be true if the Fed is again hampered from providing the economy with help by not being able to cut interest rates below zero.</p><p>“We don’t think it will be a severe one but it could be a long one,” he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Long, Moderate and Painful: What Next US Recession May Look Like</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLong, Moderate and Painful: What Next US Recession May Look Like\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-04 07:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-03/long-moderate-and-painful-what-next-us-recession-may-look-like><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>US lacks buildup of leverage that preceded past deep downturnsBut Fed may not ride to rescue, given its inflation missionRecessions, like unhappy families, are each painful in their own way.And the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-03/long-moderate-and-painful-what-next-us-recession-may-look-like\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-03/long-moderate-and-painful-what-next-us-recession-may-look-like","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184947522","content_text":"US lacks buildup of leverage that preceded past deep downturnsBut Fed may not ride to rescue, given its inflation missionRecessions, like unhappy families, are each painful in their own way.And the next one -- which economists see as increasingly possible by the end of next year -- will probably bear that out. A US downturn may well be modest, but it might also be long.Many observers expect any decline to be a lot less wrenching than the 2007-09 Great Financial Crisis and the back-to-back downturns seen in the 1980s, when inflation was last this high. The economy is simply not as far out of whack as it was in those earlier periods, they say.America's Post-WWII RecessionsSources: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Economic AnalysisNote: Dates denote starts of recessions. BEA lists 2001 as 0.5% rise in GDP.While the recession may be moderate, it could end up lasting longer than the abbreviated, eight-month contractions of 1990-91 and 2001. That’s because elevated inflation may hold the Federal Reserve back from rushing to reverse the downturn.“The good news is there’s a limit to how severe it’s going to be,” said Nomura Securities senior US economist Robert Dent. “The bad news is it’s going to be prolonged.” The former New York Fed analyst sees a roughly 2% contraction that begins in the fourth quarter and lasts through next year.No matter what shape the pullback takes, one thing seems certain: There will be a lot of hurt when it comes. In the dozen recessions since World War II, on average the economy contracted by 2.5%, unemployment rose about 3.8 percentage points and corporate profits fell some 15%. The average length was 10 months.Even a downturn on the shallower end of the spectrum would likely see hundreds of thousands of Americans -- at least -- lose their jobs. The batteredstock marketmay suffer a further fall as earnings drop. And President Joe Biden’s already poor pollratingscould take another hit.“This would be the sixth or seventh recession, I think, since I started doing this,” private-equity veteran Scott Sperling said. “Every one of them is somewhat different, and every one of them feels equally painful.”Signs of economic weakness are multiplying, with personalspendingfalling in May for the first time this year, after accounting for inflation, and a US manufacturing gauge hitting atwo-year lowin June. JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief US economist Michael Feroli responded to the latest data by cutting his mid-year growth forecasts “perilously closeto a recession.”The depth and length of the recession will largely be determined by how persistent inflation proves to be, and by how much pain the Fed is willing to inflict on the economy to bring it down to levels it deems acceptable.Inflation GenieAllianz SE chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian said he’s worried about a stop-go scenario akin to the 1970s, where the Fed prematurely eases policy in response to economic weakness before it has eradicated inflation from the system.Such a strategy would set the stage for a deeper economic decline down the road, and even greater inequality, the Bloomberg Opinion columnist said. El-Erian was out front in warning last year the Fed was making a big blunder by playing down the inflationary threat.“The Fed is not going to pause until they see that inflation has convincingly come down. That means that this Fed will be hiking well into economic weakness, likely prolonging the duration of the recession.”-- Anna Wong, chief US economistFor his part, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hasarguedthat while there’s a risk of a recession, the economy is still in good enough shape to withstand the Fed’s interest-rate hikes and dodge a downturn.A growing number of private economists aren’t convinced.“A faltering economy is all but inevitable,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel Nicolaus & Co. “The question has moved beyond if we are going to see a recession to what’s the depth and duration of a downturn.”Just as happened some 40 years ago, the decline in gross domestic product will be driven by a central bank determined to rein in runaway consumer prices. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is more than triple its 2% objective.But there are good reasons to expect the outcome won’t be nearly as bad as the early 1980s, or the 2007-09 financial crisis -- episodes when unemployment soared to double-digit levels.As Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief economist Jan Hatzius has noted, inflation isn’t as embedded in the economy or in Americans’ psyche as it was when Paul Volcker took the helm of the Fed in 1979 after a decade of persistently powerful price pressures. So it won’t take nearly as big of a slump for today’s Fed to bring price rises down to more acceptable levels.Prominent academic economist Robert Gordonreckonsthe Fed’s task today requires about half the amount of disinflation that Volcker had to put the economy through.What’s more, consumers, banks and the housing market are all better placed to weather economic turbulence than they were ahead of the 2007-09 recession.“Private-sector balance sheets are in good shape,” said Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti. “We haven’t seen leverage taken out to the extent that we saw” ahead of the financial crisis.Thanks in part to hefty government handouts that boosted savings, household debt obligations amounted to just 9.5% of disposable personal income in the first quarter, according to Feddata. That’s well below the 13.2% seen in late 2007.Banks, for their part, recentlyacedthe Fed’s latest stress test, proving they have the wherewithal to withstand a nasty combination of surging unemployment, collapsing real-estate prices and a plunge in stocks.Housing MarketAnd while housing has been battered of late by the Fed-engineered surge in mortgage rates, it too is in a better place than 2006-07, when it was awash with supply due to a speculative building boom.Today the US is about 2 million housing units “short of what our demographic profile would suggest at this point,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae. “That puts a floor to some degree under how big a recession could be.”Duncan’s base case is for a sharp depreciation in home-price increases, but not an outright decline.In the labor market, an underlying shortage of workers -- thanks to baby boomers retiring and immigration lagging -- is likely to make companies more cautious about shedding staff in a downturn, especially if it’s a mild one.“The story of the past two years has been businesses struggling to find workers,” said Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo’s Corporate and Investment Bank. “We don’t think you’re going to see mass layoffs.”Some economists say the next recession will prove long-lived, however, if the Fed holds back from riding to the economy’s rescue -- as it’s signaled it might if inflation stays stubbornly high.Powelltolda central banking conference last week that failing to restore price stability would be a “bigger mistake” than pushing the US into a recession.Fiscal policy will also be hamstrung -- and could well turn contractionary -- if Republicans win back power in Congress, as looks likely in November midterm elections. In an echo of what happened after the financial crisis, GOP lawmakers might use debt-limit standoffs to push for cuts in government spending.While not predicting a downturn, JPMorgan’s Feroli agreed a recession may be lengthy if one occurred. That would particularly be true if the Fed is again hampered from providing the economy with help by not being able to cut interest rates below zero.“We don’t think it will be a severe one but it could be a long one,” he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":39,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9051472776,"gmtCreate":1654736074295,"gmtModify":1676535501262,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9051472776","repostId":"2242814494","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9022909965,"gmtCreate":1653449086457,"gmtModify":1676535284766,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9022909965","repostId":"1139099159","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139099159","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1653444320,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139099159?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-25 10:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tiger Chart | A History of S&P 500 Bear Markets Since 1929","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139099159","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The S&P 500 has experienced 25 bear markets since 1929. Among them, the worst one from 1929 to 1932 ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The S&amp;P 500 has experienced 25 bear markets since 1929. Among them, the worst one from 1929 to 1932 experienced the longest duration in history, and its loss reached 86.2%, while the latest one occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.</p><p>On average, each bear market faced a loss of 33.4% and experienced about 331 days. Moreover, it would occur nearly every four years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e320175f3c959df19d6e36f9c45e64bd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1889\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tiger Chart | A History of S&P 500 Bear Markets Since 1929</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTiger Chart | A History of S&P 500 Bear Markets Since 1929\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-25 10:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>The S&amp;P 500 has experienced 25 bear markets since 1929. Among them, the worst one from 1929 to 1932 experienced the longest duration in history, and its loss reached 86.2%, while the latest one occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.</p><p>On average, each bear market faced a loss of 33.4% and experienced about 331 days. Moreover, it would occur nearly every four years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e320175f3c959df19d6e36f9c45e64bd\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"1889\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139099159","content_text":"The S&P 500 has experienced 25 bear markets since 1929. Among them, the worst one from 1929 to 1932 experienced the longest duration in history, and its loss reached 86.2%, while the latest one occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.On average, each bear market faced a loss of 33.4% and experienced about 331 days. Moreover, it would occur nearly every four years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097842592,"gmtCreate":1645418985232,"gmtModify":1676534026379,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097842592","repostId":"2213670409","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213670409","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645399123,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213670409?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 07:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213670409","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"After stocks endured a second straight week of selling last week, investors will be looking to a sla","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>After stocks endured a second straight week of selling last week, investors will be looking to a slate of fresh economic and earnings data as a catalyst for a potential reprieve.</p><p>The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Presidents Day holiday, so new data releases will be consolidated to the later part of the week. And updates on tensions in Russia and Ukraine will also remain in focus throughout the week after stocks sank to their lowest levels in a month on Friday, amid concerns about the escalating geopolitical conflict.</p><p>While the emerging threat of military conflict has overshadowed many other worries in the markets, inflation has still remained a central issue for investors. Inflation has implications both in informing the speed at which the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, and the extent to which consumers pull back on spending and slow overall economic activity in response to rising prices.</p><p>&#34;I really think most of the Russia-Ukraine volatility occurred in the energy space, particularly with oil. I think the rest of the volatility in the broader market has to do with the Fed tightening conversation,&#34; Frances Stacy, Optimal Capital director of strategy, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. &#34;We&#39;re looking at this sort of aggressive tightening against this backdrop of inflation, and I think that that&#39;s what&#39;s causing the volatility.&#34;</p><p>On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, offering a fresh print on the extent of price increases across the recovering economy.</p><p>Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in January, according to Bloomberg data, accelerating from December&#39;s 0.4% increase. This would represent a 14th consecutive monthly increase, and bring the index up by 6.0% on a year-over-year basis. This, in turn, would mark the fastest increase since 1982, and also accelerate from December&#39;s 5.8% annual rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b39365db67b4cbe5d9181911de7b8a\" tg-width=\"4421\" tg-height=\"2947\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The core PCE index — the Fed&#39;s preferred gauge of underlying inflation stripping out volatile food and energy prices — likely also ramped compared to December&#39;s index. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.2% increase in core PCE in January, compared to December&#39;s 4.9% rise.</p><p>Expectations for the latest inflation print suggest the economy has still not yet seen the peak in price increases. And increasingly, central bank officials have come around to the notion that inflation has remained stickier than previously expected, especially as supply chain issues and virus-related disruptions persist.</p><p>&#34;Since the December meeting, I would say that the inflation situation is about the same but probably slightly worse,&#34; Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a January press conference. &#34;I’d be inclined to raise my own estimate of 2022 core PCE inflation ... by a few tenths today.&#34;</p><p>And the latest print on PCE will likely reaffirm readings from other closely watched inflation prints. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 7.5% year-over-year to represent the largest increase since 1982, accelerating markedly from the 7.0% increase from December. And on the producer side, wholesale prices jumped 9.7% year-on-year in January, ticking down only slightly from December&#39;s record increase of 9.8%.</p><h2>Consumer confidence</h2><h2></h2><p>Despite the mounting inflationary pressures, however, consumers have largely continued to spend. Retail sales rose by a better-than-expected 3.8% in January, marking the biggest jump since March 2021 and exceeding estimates.</p><p>And this steady consumption has come even as consumers increasingly cited inflation as a key concern for their own personal finances. Average hourly wages have also climbed in recent months, but have still not kept pace with inflation.</p><p>&#34;The resilience of spending stands in stark contrast to the slump in consumer confidence, with households upping their purchases of big ticket items while simultaneously reporting that now is a particularly bad time to make those purchases,&#34; Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note. &#34;The surge in inflation is the root cause of consumer angst. Sentiment should improve as inflation falls back later this year, but the current weakness is a reminder that real consumption growth will be muted this year.&#34;</p><p>The Conference Board&#39;s Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will help provide a timely snapshot of consumers&#39; thinking following the latest spike in prices at the beginning of the year. Consensus economists are looking for the index to fall to 110.0 for February, which would mark the lowest level since September 2021, when the Delta variant had weighed on consumers&#39; outlooks. The consumer confidence index had been at 113.8 in January.</p><h2>Earnings season rolls on</h2><h2><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2704a78dbeac36d3a78a7c3a7e70f026\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2016\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></h2><p>Investors will also receive a number of new earnings results this week, with major retailers including Home Depot (HD), Lowe&#39;s (LOW), Macy&#39;s (M) and The TJX Cos. (TJX) reporting alongside other closely watched names from Coinbase (COIN) to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/W\">Wayfair</a> (W) and Nikola (NKLA).</p><p>So far this earnings season, corporate profits have remained robust, albeit while slowing compared to prior quarters. As of Friday, 84% of S&amp;P 500 companies had reported actual fourth-quarter earnings results, according to FactSet. And the estimated earnings growth rate for S&amp;P 500 companies in aggregate stood at 30.9%, compared to about 40% from the third quarter.</p><p>Still, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter has trended continuously higher as more companies reported better-than-expected results. On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter had been at just 21.2%.</p><p>But while results for many companies have been positive for the final three months of 2021, outlooks have weakened, reflecting lingering supply chain uncertainty, rising prices and other macro concerns. FactSet noted that of companies that held their earnings conference calls between Dec. 15 and Feb. 17, 72% of the corporations mentioned &#34;inflation.&#34;</p><p>&#34;In terms of earnings guidance from corporations, 71% of the S&amp;P 500 companies (55 out of 77) that have issued EPS [earnings per share] guidance for Q1 2022 have issued negative guidance,&#34; FactSet&#39;s John Butters wrote in a note Friday. &#34;This is the highest percentage of S&amp;P 500 companies issuing negative guidance since Q3 2019 (73%).&#34;</p><p>&#34;Thus, the market may be reacting more to the negative earnings guidance and downward estimates revisions for the first quarter of 2022 than the earnings surprises being reported for the fourth-quarter of 2021,&#34; Butters added.</p><h2>Economic calendar</h2><ul><li><p><b>Monday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li><li><p><b>Tuesday: </b>FHFA House Price Index, December (1.1% expected, 1.1% in November); S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December month-over-month (1.10% expected, 1.18% in November); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December year-over-year (18.30% expected, 18.29% in November); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> U.S. Manufacturing PMI, February preliminary (56.0 expected, 55.5 in January); Markit U.S. Services PMI, February preliminary (53.0 expected, 51.2 in January); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, February preliminary (51.1 in January); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, February (110.0 expected, 113.8 in January); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, February (10 expected, 8 in January)</p></li><li><p><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended February 18 (-5.4% during prior week)</p></li><li><p><b>Thursday: </b>Chicago Fed National Activity Index, January (-0.15 in December); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (7.0% expected, 6.9% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, 4Q second estimate (3.3% expected, 3.3% in prior estimate); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (4.9% expected, 4.9% in prior estimate); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, February (24 in January)</p></li><li><p><b>Friday: </b>Personal income, January (-0.4%, 0.3% in December); Personal spending, January (1.5% expected, -0.6% in December); Durable Goods Orders, January preliminary (0.9% -0.7% in December); Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation, January preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.6% in December); PCE deflator, January year-over-year (6.0% expected, 5.8% in December); PCE deflator, January month-over-month (0.6% expected, 0.4% in December); PCE core deflator, January year-over-year (5.2% expected, 4.9% in December); PCE core deflator, January month-over-month (0.5% expected, 0.5% in December)</p></li></ul><h2>Earnings calendar</h2><h2></h2><p><b>Monday</b></p><p><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p><p><b>Tuesday</b></p><p>Before market open: Apache Corp. (APA), Home Depot (HD), Tempur Sealy International (TPX), Macy&#39;s (M)</p><p>After market close: Caesar&#39;s Entertainment (CZR), Agilent Technologies (A), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FANG\">Diamondback Energy</a> (FANG), The Mosaic Co. (MOS), Toll Brothers (TOL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a> (PANW), Teladoc Health (TDOC)</p><p><b>Wednesday</b></p><p>Before market open: Lowe&#39;s (LOW), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OSTK\">Overstock.com</a> (OSTK), The TJX Cos. (TJX), Cerner Corp. (CERN)</p><p>After market close: Hertz (HTZ), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBAY\">eBay</a> (EBAY), Revolve Group Inc. (RVLV), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking Holdings</a> (BKNG), FuboTV (FUBO), Allbirds (BIRD), Bath and Body Works (BBWI), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation Entertainment</a> (LYV), The Real Real (REAL), Lemonade (LMND)</p><p><b>Thursday</b></p><p>Before market open: Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Newmont Corp. (NEM), SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS), Moderna (MRNA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Nikola (NKLA), Wayfair (W), Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), Discovery Inc. (DISCA), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)</p><p>After market close: Intuit (INTU), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Autodesk (ADSK), Coinbase (COIN), Dell Technologies (DELL), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ2.AU\">Block Inc.</a> (SQ), Zscaler (ZS), Rocket Cos. (RKT), VMWare (VMW), Etsy (ETSY), Beyond Meat (BYND), Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST)</p><p><b>Friday</b></p><p><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPCE Inflation, Consumer Confidence: What to Know This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-21 07:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pce-inflation-consumer-confidence-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-164350893.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>After stocks endured a second straight week of selling last week, investors will be looking to a slate of fresh economic and earnings data as a catalyst for a potential reprieve.The U.S. stock and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pce-inflation-consumer-confidence-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-164350893.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","M":"梅西百货","BK4097":"系统软件","SPY":"标普500ETF","TJX":"The TJX Companies Inc.","KDP":"Keurig Dr Pepper Inc","NKLA":"Nikola Corporation","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4560":"网络安全概念","BK4125":"广播","BK4094":"服装零售","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4142":"酒店、度假村与豪华游轮","SPCE":"维珍银河","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","CPI":"IQ Real Return ETF","CZR":"凯撒娱乐","OXY":"西方石油","BK4562":"SPAC上市公司","FANG":"Diamondback Energy","LOW":"劳氏","BK4107":"财产与意外伤害保险","ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","MOS":"美国美盛","JPM":"摩根大通","PLNT":"Planet Fitness Inc","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","DISCA":"探索传播","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks","BK4515":"5G概念","A":"安捷伦科技","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4177":"软饮料","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","APA":"阿帕契","BK4139":"生物科技","HD":"家得宝","HTZ":"赫兹租车","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","BK4150":"赌场与赌博","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4121":"生命科学工具和服务","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BBWI":"Bath & Body Works Inc.","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4095":"家庭装饰品","BK4517":"邮轮概念","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4022":"陆运"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pce-inflation-consumer-confidence-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-164350893.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213670409","content_text":"After stocks endured a second straight week of selling last week, investors will be looking to a slate of fresh economic and earnings data as a catalyst for a potential reprieve.The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed Monday in observance of the Presidents Day holiday, so new data releases will be consolidated to the later part of the week. And updates on tensions in Russia and Ukraine will also remain in focus throughout the week after stocks sank to their lowest levels in a month on Friday, amid concerns about the escalating geopolitical conflict.While the emerging threat of military conflict has overshadowed many other worries in the markets, inflation has still remained a central issue for investors. Inflation has implications both in informing the speed at which the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, and the extent to which consumers pull back on spending and slow overall economic activity in response to rising prices.\"I really think most of the Russia-Ukraine volatility occurred in the energy space, particularly with oil. I think the rest of the volatility in the broader market has to do with the Fed tightening conversation,\" Frances Stacy, Optimal Capital director of strategy, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We're looking at this sort of aggressive tightening against this backdrop of inflation, and I think that that's what's causing the volatility.\"On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator, offering a fresh print on the extent of price increases across the recovering economy.Consensus economists expect the PCE to post a rise of another 0.6% in January, according to Bloomberg data, accelerating from December's 0.4% increase. This would represent a 14th consecutive monthly increase, and bring the index up by 6.0% on a year-over-year basis. This, in turn, would mark the fastest increase since 1982, and also accelerate from December's 5.8% annual rise.The core PCE index — the Fed's preferred gauge of underlying inflation stripping out volatile food and energy prices — likely also ramped compared to December's index. Consensus economists are looking for a 5.2% increase in core PCE in January, compared to December's 4.9% rise.Expectations for the latest inflation print suggest the economy has still not yet seen the peak in price increases. And increasingly, central bank officials have come around to the notion that inflation has remained stickier than previously expected, especially as supply chain issues and virus-related disruptions persist.\"Since the December meeting, I would say that the inflation situation is about the same but probably slightly worse,\" Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a January press conference. \"I’d be inclined to raise my own estimate of 2022 core PCE inflation ... by a few tenths today.\"And the latest print on PCE will likely reaffirm readings from other closely watched inflation prints. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 7.5% year-over-year to represent the largest increase since 1982, accelerating markedly from the 7.0% increase from December. And on the producer side, wholesale prices jumped 9.7% year-on-year in January, ticking down only slightly from December's record increase of 9.8%.Consumer confidenceDespite the mounting inflationary pressures, however, consumers have largely continued to spend. Retail sales rose by a better-than-expected 3.8% in January, marking the biggest jump since March 2021 and exceeding estimates.And this steady consumption has come even as consumers increasingly cited inflation as a key concern for their own personal finances. Average hourly wages have also climbed in recent months, but have still not kept pace with inflation.\"The resilience of spending stands in stark contrast to the slump in consumer confidence, with households upping their purchases of big ticket items while simultaneously reporting that now is a particularly bad time to make those purchases,\" Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist for Capital Economics, wrote in a note. \"The surge in inflation is the root cause of consumer angst. Sentiment should improve as inflation falls back later this year, but the current weakness is a reminder that real consumption growth will be muted this year.\"The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index due for release on Tuesday will help provide a timely snapshot of consumers' thinking following the latest spike in prices at the beginning of the year. Consensus economists are looking for the index to fall to 110.0 for February, which would mark the lowest level since September 2021, when the Delta variant had weighed on consumers' outlooks. The consumer confidence index had been at 113.8 in January.Earnings season rolls onInvestors will also receive a number of new earnings results this week, with major retailers including Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), Macy's (M) and The TJX Cos. (TJX) reporting alongside other closely watched names from Coinbase (COIN) to Wayfair (W) and Nikola (NKLA).So far this earnings season, corporate profits have remained robust, albeit while slowing compared to prior quarters. As of Friday, 84% of S&P 500 companies had reported actual fourth-quarter earnings results, according to FactSet. And the estimated earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in aggregate stood at 30.9%, compared to about 40% from the third quarter.Still, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter has trended continuously higher as more companies reported better-than-expected results. On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter had been at just 21.2%.But while results for many companies have been positive for the final three months of 2021, outlooks have weakened, reflecting lingering supply chain uncertainty, rising prices and other macro concerns. FactSet noted that of companies that held their earnings conference calls between Dec. 15 and Feb. 17, 72% of the corporations mentioned \"inflation.\"\"In terms of earnings guidance from corporations, 71% of the S&P 500 companies (55 out of 77) that have issued EPS [earnings per share] guidance for Q1 2022 have issued negative guidance,\" FactSet's John Butters wrote in a note Friday. \"This is the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing negative guidance since Q3 2019 (73%).\"\"Thus, the market may be reacting more to the negative earnings guidance and downward estimates revisions for the first quarter of 2022 than the earnings surprises being reported for the fourth-quarter of 2021,\" Butters added.Economic calendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for releaseTuesday: FHFA House Price Index, December (1.1% expected, 1.1% in November); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December month-over-month (1.10% expected, 1.18% in November); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, December year-over-year (18.30% expected, 18.29% in November); Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, February preliminary (56.0 expected, 55.5 in January); Markit U.S. Services PMI, February preliminary (53.0 expected, 51.2 in January); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, February preliminary (51.1 in January); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, February (110.0 expected, 113.8 in January); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, February (10 expected, 8 in January)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended February 18 (-5.4% during prior week)Thursday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, January (-0.15 in December); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (7.0% expected, 6.9% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, 4Q second estimate (3.3% expected, 3.3% in prior estimate); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter, 4Q second estimate (4.9% expected, 4.9% in prior estimate); Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity, February (24 in January)Friday: Personal income, January (-0.4%, 0.3% in December); Personal spending, January (1.5% expected, -0.6% in December); Durable Goods Orders, January preliminary (0.9% -0.7% in December); Durable Goods Orders excluding transportation, January preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.6% in December); PCE deflator, January year-over-year (6.0% expected, 5.8% in December); PCE deflator, January month-over-month (0.6% expected, 0.4% in December); PCE core deflator, January year-over-year (5.2% expected, 4.9% in December); PCE core deflator, January month-over-month (0.5% expected, 0.5% in December)Earnings calendarMondayNo notable reports scheduled for releaseTuesdayBefore market open: Apache Corp. (APA), Home Depot (HD), Tempur Sealy International (TPX), Macy's (M)After market close: Caesar's Entertainment (CZR), Agilent Technologies (A), Diamondback Energy (FANG), The Mosaic Co. (MOS), Toll Brothers (TOL), Virgin Galactic (SPCE), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Teladoc Health (TDOC)WednesdayBefore market open: Lowe's (LOW), Overstock.com (OSTK), The TJX Cos. (TJX), Cerner Corp. (CERN)After market close: Hertz (HTZ), eBay (EBAY), Revolve Group Inc. (RVLV), Booking Holdings (BKNG), FuboTV (FUBO), Allbirds (BIRD), Bath and Body Works (BBWI), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Live Nation Entertainment (LYV), The Real Real (REAL), Lemonade (LMND)ThursdayBefore market open: Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Newmont Corp. (NEM), SeaWorld Entertainment (SEAS), Moderna (MRNA), Planet Fitness (PLNT), Nikola (NKLA), Wayfair (W), Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), Discovery Inc. (DISCA), Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH), Occidental Petroleum (OXY)After market close: Intuit (INTU), Opendoor Technologies (OPEN), Autodesk (ADSK), Coinbase (COIN), Dell Technologies (DELL), Block Inc. (SQ), Zscaler (ZS), Rocket Cos. (RKT), VMWare (VMW), Etsy (ETSY), Beyond Meat (BYND), Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST)FridayNo notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004696815,"gmtCreate":1642570225453,"gmtModify":1676533724150,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004696815","repostId":"2204408493","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893712015,"gmtCreate":1628300311837,"gmtModify":1703504735664,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893712015","repostId":"1119792130","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119792130","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628296709,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119792130?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-07 08:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Jordan Belfort, The Boiler Room Wolf","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119792130","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Does crime pay?\n“Making money is so easy,” said Jordan Belfort in a 2013 interview withNew Yorkmagaz","content":"<p><i>Does crime pay?</i></p>\n<p>“Making money is so easy,” said&nbsp;<b>Jordan Belfort</b>&nbsp;in a 2013 interview withNew Yorkmagazine. “It really is. It’s not hard to do.”</p>\n<p>Belfort’s breezy pronouncement came as part of the publicity drumming for the release of&nbsp;<b>Martin Scorsese’s</b>&nbsp;film version of Belfort’s autobiography<b>“The Wolf of Wall Street,”</b>which starred&nbsp;<b>Leonardo DiCaprio</b>&nbsp;as Belfort.</p>\n<p>The New York article also featured input from&nbsp;<b>Greg Coleman,</b>the FBI special agent responsible for Belfort’s arrest for fraud and stock market manipulation. From Coleman’s perspective, Belfort wasn't worthy of movie star-level worship.</p>\n<p>“From a moral perspective, he was a reprehensible human being,” Coleman said about Belfort. “Admiration would be the wrong word, but from the perspective of manipulating the market, he’s one of the best there is.”</p>\n<p><b>A Kick In The Teeth:</b>A native of New York City, Belfort was born in 1962 in the Bronx and raised in the Bayside section of Queens. Both of his parents were accountants who stressed the value of education and maturity.</p>\n<p>Belfort received a degree in biology from American University and saw his career path in dentistry. He made money to pursue his dental studies by selling Italian ices on a beach in Queens&nbsp;and enrolled in the University of Maryland School of Dentistry.</p>\n<p>He dropped out after the first day of studies when the dean of the school made the astonishing pronouncement:&nbsp;“The golden age of dentistry is over. If you're here simply because you're looking to make a lot of money, you're in the wrong place.\"</p>\n<p>But what was the right career for making money?</p>\n<p>Belfort returned from his day in dental school and found work as a door-to-door salesman in Long Island, where he sold meat and seafood. He started to grow a business based on this endeavor, but the effort failed to click and he wound up filing for bankruptcy by the time he was 25.</p>\n<p>“I was pretty talented,” he would later recall about this unsuccessful venture. “But the margins were too small.”</p>\n<p>However, a family friend pointed him to a position as a stockbroker broker trainee with the Manhattan-based firm<b>L.F. Rothschild,</b>but he lost that position when the firm experienced financial difficulty after the 1987 stock market crash.</p>\n<p>He took positions with other firms including&nbsp;<b>D.H. Blair</b>&nbsp;and<b>&nbsp;F.D. Roberts Securities and Investors Center</b>&nbsp;—&nbsp;the latter was apenny stockbrokerage shut down in 1989 by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) one year after Belfort joined its staff.</p>\n<p>Discouraged at working for others in unstable environments, Belfort decided to turn entrepreneur and create his own financial operations,&nbsp;and that’s when the would-be dentist started his career lycanthropy into becoming the&nbsp;<b>Wolf of Wall Street.</b></p>\n<p><b>The Kodak Pitch:</b>In 1989, the 27-year-old Belfort teamed with 23-year-old&nbsp;<b>Kenneth Greene,</b>a fellow Investors Center employee who previously drove one of Belfort’s trucks during his meat selling days.</p>\n<p>The pair opened their own brokerage in a spare office in a Queens car dealership and then arranged to set up a franchise of&nbsp;<b>Stratton Securities,</b>a small broker-dealer operation.</p>\n<p>The duo seemed to strike gold quickly. Within five months of starting their franchise, they accumulated $250,000 and were able to buy Stratton Securities for themselves, renaming it&nbsp;<b>Stratton Oakmont</b>&nbsp;and establishing an operations center in Lake Success, a Long Island town which was best known as the first site of the United Nations headquarters before its Manhattan campus was constructed.</p>\n<p>By 1991, Stratton Oakmont generated $30 million in commissions from a 150-person workforce. Many of his team members were twentysomethings from blue-collar backgrounds eager to make a maximum amount of money in a minimal amount of time.</p>\n<p>Belfort also enjoyed his first brush with fame in 1991 via a profile inForbesthat harshly displayed his virtues and vices. On the plus side, the Forbes coverage offered insight into Belfort’s instruction on teaching his eager young employees the art of cold-calling potential investors.</p>\n<p>Using a technique he dubbed the<b>“Kodak pitch,”</b>Belfort instructed his brokers to begin their telephone spiel with a blue-chip stock such as&nbsp;<b>Eastman Kodak</b>&nbsp;before doing a hard-sell on obscurepenny stocks.</p>\n<p>Belfort also insisted that his brokers refuse to take no for an answer, offering them the mantra<b>“Whip their necks off, don't let ‘em off the phone.”</b></p>\n<p>Belfort’s team took his lessons to heart:&nbsp;Forbes reported they were, on average, earning $85,000 a year.</p>\n<p>Yet Forbes also highlighted Stratton Oakmont’s loosey-goosey approach to ethical operations, noting that the SEC began investigating the brokerage in its first year of operations over questionable sales and trading practices. Indeed, the magazine detailed several examples of pump-and-dump efforts by the Stratton Oakmont team that drove up prices on penny stock shares before selling them at their artificially inflated peak.</p>\n<p>Forbes diplomatically declined to identify Stratton Oakmont as a “boiler room,” but it was obvious what was taking place.</p>\n<p>Noting these antics, along with the SEC’s receipt of customer complaints, Forbes dubbed Belfort as “a kind of twisted Robin Hood who takes from the rich and gives to himself and his merry band of brokers.”&nbsp;Belfort defended his actions, claiming, “We contact high-net-worth investors. I couldn't live with myself if I was calling people who make $50,000 a year, and I'm taking their child's tuition money.”</p>\n<p>Also cited in his media debut was Belfort’s automobile, a&nbsp;<b>$175,000 Ferrari Testarossa.</b>This lavish hedonism was the start of a trend that would shape and then disfigure Belfort’s life.</p>\n<p><b>Ain’t We Got Fun?</b>Besides the SEC, Stratton Oakmont had been under watch by the&nbsp;<b>National Association of Securities Dealers</b>, the forerunner of today’s Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, right after its founding. Yet Stratton Oakmont was not expelled from the NASD until 1996 and Belfort was not indicted for securities fraud until 1999.</p>\n<p>In the years between his Forbes profile and his arrest, Belfort engaged an extravagant form of slow-motion, self-immolation fueled by drug addictions and financed by his pump-and-dump business.</p>\n<p>“I suffered from a disease called ‘more,’ he would lament in retrospect. “No matter how much I had, I wanted more.<b>You don't lose your ethics all at once.</b>It happens very slowly and, almost imperceptibly, you know you're doing things right and one day you step over the line.”</p>\n<p>Well, Belfort certainly went very much over that proverbial line. Financially, he was far ahead of the average American —&nbsp;at the peak of his earning power, he pocketed $50 million per year.</p>\n<p>Belfort’s wealth enabled him to purchase luxury residences and expensive toys that he had a strange habit of destroying, such as&nbsp;a luxury yacht once belonging&nbsp;to&nbsp;iconic designer&nbsp;<b>Coco Chanel</b>&nbsp;which he sank in a storm off the Sardinian coast in 1996;&nbsp;a Mercedes&nbsp;he totaled while driving high on quaaludes; and a helicopter that he somehow crash-landed on the front lawn of one of his mansions.</p>\n<p>The damage he inflicted on his property was mirrored by the insanity&nbsp;his drug habit inflicted on his body. “It was just like coke, coke, coke all day and I was like, ‘Screw you I don't have a problem,’” he would recall, adding, “I was like Al Pacino in ‘Scarface’ with a pile of cocaine. That's what my life had descended to.”</p>\n<p><b>The Inevitable Downfall:</b>Belfort’s luck began to slowly fray by 1994 when he reached an agreement with the SEC that required a lifetime ban from the securities industry. But he circumvented the&nbsp;prohibition by continuing to conduct business through<b>Danny Porush,</b>his right-hand man&nbsp;at Stratton Oakmont.</p>\n<p>Belfort also played fast with the rules in arranging the 1993 initial public offering for childhood friend&nbsp;<b>Steve Madden’s shoe company.</b>Madden would become entangled in Belfort’s schemes, including a deal to secretly buy and sell stock in Stratton deals on behalf of Porush, who was legally limited in trading stocks in those companies, and a secret arrangement to provide Belfort with a majority stake in his company despite the NASD’s severe restrictions on Belfort’s actions.</p>\n<p>Despite evidence of finance chicanery, Belfort’s downfall began with the arrest of his drug dealer, a martial artist named<b>Todd Garrett,</b>who was caught with $200,000 in cash from Belfort and Porush&nbsp;destined to be secretly transported to Switzerland. One year later, a French private banker who worked for a Swiss bank was arrested in Miami as part of a money-laundering scheme. In exchange for a lighter prison sentence, he identified his clients and cited Belfort and Porush.</p>\n<p><b>On Sept.&nbsp;2, 1998, Belfort was arrested for conspiracy to commit money laundering and securities fraud that resulted in 1,513 investors being swindled out of more than $200 million.</b>After a week in custody, Belfort agreed to cut a deal with law enforcement agencies and agreed to wear a wire and record conversations with business associates who were under investigation.</p>\n<p>Belfort’s work as an informant brought dozens of financial professionals and lawyers into prison, but he was not spared from incarceration.&nbsp;Although sentenced to four years in prison in 2003, he only served a 22-month sentence. He was also ordered to pay a $110 million fine.</p>\n<p><b>A Stellar Encore:</b>While serving his prison sentence, Belfort shared a cell with comedian&nbsp;<b>Tommy Chong,</b>who was incarcerated on drug-related charges. Chong encouraged Belfort to write his autobiography. After his release from prison in April 2006, his memoir “The Wolf of Wall Street” was acquired by&nbsp;<b>Random House</b>&nbsp;for $500,000 and became a critically acclaimed best-seller upon its 2007 publication. A second book, “Catching the Wolf of Wall Street,” was published in 2009.</p>\n<p>The film version of “The Wolf of Wall Street” brought Belfort a new degree of pop culture recognition and helped in his post-prison career as&nbsp;<b>a motivational speaker.</b></p>\n<p>These years have not been without controversy. Prosecutors have accused him of failing to compensate the victims of his crimes and pocketing lucrative speaking fees instead of channeling them to his restitution requirements. But the federal government overplayed its hand by accusing him of fleeing to Australia to hide his wealth and avoid paying taxes — Belfort received&nbsp;a public apology for the release of that misinformation.</p>\n<p><b>Belfort filed a $300 million lawsuit against Red Granite,</b>the production company that purchased the film rights to “The Wolf of Wall Street,” after it was exposed that the deal was financed with questionable funds from Malaysia. Belfort insisted he would never have transacted with the company if he was aware of the dirty money that financed its operations.</p>\n<p>Last month, Belfort posted a photo on his Facebook page that found him happily engaged in a poker game on a yacht’s casino table while a half-dozen cuties in bathing suits holding champagne glasses posed behind him. The message that accompanied the photo said,<b>“If you want to be rich, never give up... If you have persistence, you will come out ahead of most people... When you do something, you might fail... Do it differently each time... and one day, you will do it right. Failure is your friend.”</b></p>\n<p>For ex-FBI agent Greg Coleman, Belfort’s phoenix-like rise from the ashes of his own making represented the worst possible conclusion. Coleman&nbsp;considered Belfort’s ability to profit from his swindling and sourly told New York magazine ahead of “The Wolf of Wall Street” film premiere,<b>\"Crime pays.\"</b></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Jordan Belfort, The Boiler Room Wolf</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Crime And Punishment: Jordan Belfort, The Boiler Room Wolf\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-07 08:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22341233/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-jordan-belfort-the-boiler-room-wolf><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Does crime pay?\n“Making money is so easy,” said Jordan Belfort in a 2013 interview withNew Yorkmagazine. “It really is. It’s not hard to do.”\nBelfort’s breezy pronouncement came as part of the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22341233/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-jordan-belfort-the-boiler-room-wolf\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22341233/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-jordan-belfort-the-boiler-room-wolf","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119792130","content_text":"Does crime pay?\n“Making money is so easy,” said Jordan Belfort in a 2013 interview withNew Yorkmagazine. “It really is. It’s not hard to do.”\nBelfort’s breezy pronouncement came as part of the publicity drumming for the release of Martin Scorsese’s film version of Belfort’s autobiography“The Wolf of Wall Street,”which starred Leonardo DiCaprio as Belfort.\nThe New York article also featured input from Greg Coleman,the FBI special agent responsible for Belfort’s arrest for fraud and stock market manipulation. From Coleman’s perspective, Belfort wasn't worthy of movie star-level worship.\n“From a moral perspective, he was a reprehensible human being,” Coleman said about Belfort. “Admiration would be the wrong word, but from the perspective of manipulating the market, he’s one of the best there is.”\nA Kick In The Teeth:A native of New York City, Belfort was born in 1962 in the Bronx and raised in the Bayside section of Queens. Both of his parents were accountants who stressed the value of education and maturity.\nBelfort received a degree in biology from American University and saw his career path in dentistry. He made money to pursue his dental studies by selling Italian ices on a beach in Queens and enrolled in the University of Maryland School of Dentistry.\nHe dropped out after the first day of studies when the dean of the school made the astonishing pronouncement: “The golden age of dentistry is over. If you're here simply because you're looking to make a lot of money, you're in the wrong place.\"\nBut what was the right career for making money?\nBelfort returned from his day in dental school and found work as a door-to-door salesman in Long Island, where he sold meat and seafood. He started to grow a business based on this endeavor, but the effort failed to click and he wound up filing for bankruptcy by the time he was 25.\n“I was pretty talented,” he would later recall about this unsuccessful venture. “But the margins were too small.”\nHowever, a family friend pointed him to a position as a stockbroker broker trainee with the Manhattan-based firmL.F. Rothschild,but he lost that position when the firm experienced financial difficulty after the 1987 stock market crash.\nHe took positions with other firms including D.H. Blair and F.D. Roberts Securities and Investors Center — the latter was apenny stockbrokerage shut down in 1989 by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) one year after Belfort joined its staff.\nDiscouraged at working for others in unstable environments, Belfort decided to turn entrepreneur and create his own financial operations, and that’s when the would-be dentist started his career lycanthropy into becoming the Wolf of Wall Street.\nThe Kodak Pitch:In 1989, the 27-year-old Belfort teamed with 23-year-old Kenneth Greene,a fellow Investors Center employee who previously drove one of Belfort’s trucks during his meat selling days.\nThe pair opened their own brokerage in a spare office in a Queens car dealership and then arranged to set up a franchise of Stratton Securities,a small broker-dealer operation.\nThe duo seemed to strike gold quickly. Within five months of starting their franchise, they accumulated $250,000 and were able to buy Stratton Securities for themselves, renaming it Stratton Oakmont and establishing an operations center in Lake Success, a Long Island town which was best known as the first site of the United Nations headquarters before its Manhattan campus was constructed.\nBy 1991, Stratton Oakmont generated $30 million in commissions from a 150-person workforce. Many of his team members were twentysomethings from blue-collar backgrounds eager to make a maximum amount of money in a minimal amount of time.\nBelfort also enjoyed his first brush with fame in 1991 via a profile inForbesthat harshly displayed his virtues and vices. On the plus side, the Forbes coverage offered insight into Belfort’s instruction on teaching his eager young employees the art of cold-calling potential investors.\nUsing a technique he dubbed the“Kodak pitch,”Belfort instructed his brokers to begin their telephone spiel with a blue-chip stock such as Eastman Kodak before doing a hard-sell on obscurepenny stocks.\nBelfort also insisted that his brokers refuse to take no for an answer, offering them the mantra“Whip their necks off, don't let ‘em off the phone.”\nBelfort’s team took his lessons to heart: Forbes reported they were, on average, earning $85,000 a year.\nYet Forbes also highlighted Stratton Oakmont’s loosey-goosey approach to ethical operations, noting that the SEC began investigating the brokerage in its first year of operations over questionable sales and trading practices. Indeed, the magazine detailed several examples of pump-and-dump efforts by the Stratton Oakmont team that drove up prices on penny stock shares before selling them at their artificially inflated peak.\nForbes diplomatically declined to identify Stratton Oakmont as a “boiler room,” but it was obvious what was taking place.\nNoting these antics, along with the SEC’s receipt of customer complaints, Forbes dubbed Belfort as “a kind of twisted Robin Hood who takes from the rich and gives to himself and his merry band of brokers.” Belfort defended his actions, claiming, “We contact high-net-worth investors. I couldn't live with myself if I was calling people who make $50,000 a year, and I'm taking their child's tuition money.”\nAlso cited in his media debut was Belfort’s automobile, a $175,000 Ferrari Testarossa.This lavish hedonism was the start of a trend that would shape and then disfigure Belfort’s life.\nAin’t We Got Fun?Besides the SEC, Stratton Oakmont had been under watch by the National Association of Securities Dealers, the forerunner of today’s Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, right after its founding. Yet Stratton Oakmont was not expelled from the NASD until 1996 and Belfort was not indicted for securities fraud until 1999.\nIn the years between his Forbes profile and his arrest, Belfort engaged an extravagant form of slow-motion, self-immolation fueled by drug addictions and financed by his pump-and-dump business.\n“I suffered from a disease called ‘more,’ he would lament in retrospect. “No matter how much I had, I wanted more.You don't lose your ethics all at once.It happens very slowly and, almost imperceptibly, you know you're doing things right and one day you step over the line.”\nWell, Belfort certainly went very much over that proverbial line. Financially, he was far ahead of the average American — at the peak of his earning power, he pocketed $50 million per year.\nBelfort’s wealth enabled him to purchase luxury residences and expensive toys that he had a strange habit of destroying, such as a luxury yacht once belonging to iconic designer Coco Chanel which he sank in a storm off the Sardinian coast in 1996; a Mercedes he totaled while driving high on quaaludes; and a helicopter that he somehow crash-landed on the front lawn of one of his mansions.\nThe damage he inflicted on his property was mirrored by the insanity his drug habit inflicted on his body. “It was just like coke, coke, coke all day and I was like, ‘Screw you I don't have a problem,’” he would recall, adding, “I was like Al Pacino in ‘Scarface’ with a pile of cocaine. That's what my life had descended to.”\nThe Inevitable Downfall:Belfort’s luck began to slowly fray by 1994 when he reached an agreement with the SEC that required a lifetime ban from the securities industry. But he circumvented the prohibition by continuing to conduct business throughDanny Porush,his right-hand man at Stratton Oakmont.\nBelfort also played fast with the rules in arranging the 1993 initial public offering for childhood friend Steve Madden’s shoe company.Madden would become entangled in Belfort’s schemes, including a deal to secretly buy and sell stock in Stratton deals on behalf of Porush, who was legally limited in trading stocks in those companies, and a secret arrangement to provide Belfort with a majority stake in his company despite the NASD’s severe restrictions on Belfort’s actions.\nDespite evidence of finance chicanery, Belfort’s downfall began with the arrest of his drug dealer, a martial artist namedTodd Garrett,who was caught with $200,000 in cash from Belfort and Porush destined to be secretly transported to Switzerland. One year later, a French private banker who worked for a Swiss bank was arrested in Miami as part of a money-laundering scheme. In exchange for a lighter prison sentence, he identified his clients and cited Belfort and Porush.\nOn Sept. 2, 1998, Belfort was arrested for conspiracy to commit money laundering and securities fraud that resulted in 1,513 investors being swindled out of more than $200 million.After a week in custody, Belfort agreed to cut a deal with law enforcement agencies and agreed to wear a wire and record conversations with business associates who were under investigation.\nBelfort’s work as an informant brought dozens of financial professionals and lawyers into prison, but he was not spared from incarceration. Although sentenced to four years in prison in 2003, he only served a 22-month sentence. He was also ordered to pay a $110 million fine.\nA Stellar Encore:While serving his prison sentence, Belfort shared a cell with comedian Tommy Chong,who was incarcerated on drug-related charges. Chong encouraged Belfort to write his autobiography. After his release from prison in April 2006, his memoir “The Wolf of Wall Street” was acquired by Random House for $500,000 and became a critically acclaimed best-seller upon its 2007 publication. A second book, “Catching the Wolf of Wall Street,” was published in 2009.\nThe film version of “The Wolf of Wall Street” brought Belfort a new degree of pop culture recognition and helped in his post-prison career as a motivational speaker.\nThese years have not been without controversy. Prosecutors have accused him of failing to compensate the victims of his crimes and pocketing lucrative speaking fees instead of channeling them to his restitution requirements. But the federal government overplayed its hand by accusing him of fleeing to Australia to hide his wealth and avoid paying taxes — Belfort received a public apology for the release of that misinformation.\nBelfort filed a $300 million lawsuit against Red Granite,the production company that purchased the film rights to “The Wolf of Wall Street,” after it was exposed that the deal was financed with questionable funds from Malaysia. Belfort insisted he would never have transacted with the company if he was aware of the dirty money that financed its operations.\nLast month, Belfort posted a photo on his Facebook page that found him happily engaged in a poker game on a yacht’s casino table while a half-dozen cuties in bathing suits holding champagne glasses posed behind him. The message that accompanied the photo said,“If you want to be rich, never give up... If you have persistence, you will come out ahead of most people... When you do something, you might fail... Do it differently each time... and one day, you will do it right. Failure is your friend.”\nFor ex-FBI agent Greg Coleman, Belfort’s phoenix-like rise from the ashes of his own making represented the worst possible conclusion. Coleman considered Belfort’s ability to profit from his swindling and sourly told New York magazine ahead of “The Wolf of Wall Street” film premiere,\"Crime pays.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":89,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9937529170,"gmtCreate":1663469047390,"gmtModify":1676537274941,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9937529170","repostId":"1160797562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9998700346,"gmtCreate":1661052333687,"gmtModify":1676536445686,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like 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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080438403","repostId":"1153344302","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9010810117,"gmtCreate":1648337114453,"gmtModify":1676534327851,"author":{"id":"3581934736299674","authorId":"3581934736299674","name":"kel0508","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b8204be964dc6d17ba74e699e3c2a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581934736299674","authorIdStr":"3581934736299674"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9010810117","repostId":"1196027616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196027616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1648255536,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196027616?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-03-26 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196027616","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of p","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.</p><p>They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.</p><p>“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.</p><p>“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”</p><p>An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.</p><p>Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.</p><p>Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know</p><p>But that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.</p><p>“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.</p><p>“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”</p><h2>Watch 10-year, 3-month</h2><p>Instead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe28818cd1806ee5afd5519332cf483\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management</span></p><p>“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.</p><p>“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”</p><p>Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&amp;P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.</p><p>By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”</p><p>On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.</p><p>“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.</p><p>A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.</p><p>“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStock-Market Investors Should Watch the \"Best Leading Indicator of Trouble Ahead\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-26 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-this-part-of-the-treasury-yield-curve-may-be-the-best-leading-indicator-of-trouble-ahead-11648210025?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196027616","content_text":"Investors have been watching the U.S. Treasury yield curve for inversions, a reliable predictor of past economic downturns.They don’t always agree on which part of the curve is best to watch though.“Yield curve inversion, and flatting, has been at the forefront for everyone,” said Pete Duffy, chief investment officer at Penn Capital Management Company, in Philadelphia, by phone.“That’s because the Fed is so active and rates suddenly have gone up so quickly.”An inversion of the yield curve happens when rates on longer bonds fall below those of shorter-term debt, a sign that investors think economic woes could lie ahead. Fears of an economic slowdown have been mounting as the Federal Reserve starts to tighten financial conditions while Russia’s Ukraine invasion threatens to keep key drivers of U.S. inflation high.Lately, the attention has been on the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.478% and shorter 2-year yield, where the spread fell to 13 basis points on Tuesday, up from a high of about 130 basis points five months ago.Read: The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to knowBut that’s not the only plot on the Treasury yield curve investors closely watch. The Treasury Department sells securities that mature in a range from a few days to 30 years, providing a lot of plots on the curve to follow.“The focus has been on the 10s and 2s,” said Mark Heppenstall, chief investment officer at Penn Mutual Asset Management, in Horsham, Penn, a northern suburb of Philadelphia.“I will hold out until the 10s to 3-month bills inverts before I turn too negative on the economic outlook,” he said, calling it “the best leading indicator of trouble ahead.”Watch 10-year, 3-monthInstead of falling, that spread climbed in March, continuing its path higher since turning negative two years ago at the onset of the pandemic (see chart).The 3-month to 10-year yield spread is climbing Bloomberg data, Goelzer Investment Management“The 3-month Treasury bill really tracks the Federal Reserve’s target rate,” said Gavin Stephens, director of portfolio management at Goelzer Investment Management in Indiana, by phone.“So it gives you a more immediate picture of if the Federal Reserve has entered a restrictive state in terms of monetary policy and, thus, giving the possibility that economic growth is going to contract, which would be bad for stocks.”Stocks were lower Friday, but with the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.51% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.16% still up about 1.2% on the week. The three major indexes were 4.5% to 10.1% lower so far in 2022, according to FactSet.By watching the 10s and 2s TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.280% spread, “You are looking at the expectations of where Fed Reserve interest rate policy is going to be over a period of two years,” Stephens said. “So, effectively, it’s working with a lag.”On average, from the time the 10s and 2s curve inverts, until “there’s a recession, it’s almost two years,” he said, predicting that with unemployment recently pegged around 3.8% that, “this curve is going to invert when the economy is really strong.”The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco also called the 3-month TMUBMUSD03M, 0.535% and 10-year curve relationship its “preferred spread measure because it has the strongest predictive power for future recessions,” such as in 2019, back when the yield curve was more regularly flashing recession warning signs.“Did it see COVID coming?” Duffy said, of earlier yield curve inversions.A more likely catalyst was that investors already were on a recession watch, with the American economy in its longest expansion period on record.“There are a number of these curves that you need to look at in totality,” Duffy said. “We’ve always said look at many signals.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":92,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}