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2021-06-23

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AMC: An Open Letter To The Apes - The Stock Market And Reality

2021-06-23

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Here is what invest","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Amazon stock is flirting with all-time highs, after nearly 10 months underwater. Here is what investors should consider before buying or selling shares near peak price.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>It has been 293 calendar days – and still counting, for now. Amazon stock (AMZN) has not been able to reach all-time highs since early September 2020, butthe spell is about to be broken. Shares ended the June 22 session priced at $3,505, only 0.7% below the $3,531 peak of nearly 10 months ago.</p>\n<p>With the milestone within sight, the Amazon Maven discusses what investors should do now: buy AMZN on momentum, or stay away on ramping valuations?</p>\n<p><b>The bearish view</b></p>\n<p>There are a few reasons for investors to be wary of Amazon at current levels. From a price perspective, the nearly 10% rally of the past two weeks is tied for the sharpest gain since July 2020. Those who did not buy AMZN below $3,200 only a few days ago may have passed on a decent upside opportunity.</p>\n<p>On a related subject, Amazon shares havehistorically performed more poorly than averagein the month following Prime Day – the likely result of “sell the news” pressures. Since shares have climbed so far in the days leading to the June event, the headwinds could be even more pronounced this year.</p>\n<p>From a business fundamentals perspective, Amazon remains in thecrosshairs of the government on matters of antitrust. The company is at risk of being more heavily regulated, and bearish developments on new antitrust legislation could surface at any moment.</p>\n<p>Lastly, Amazon shares have enjoyed the highly favorable macroeconomic and market environment of today: a recovery leading to strength in e-commerce, coupled withdeclining rates that are bullishfor the stock andstable asset prices. It is unclear, however, how much longer this period of calm will last.</p>\n<p><b>Thinking long-term</b></p>\n<p>Having said the above, there are at least as many reasons to buy Amazon stock today, even near a historical peak. First, valuations can be misleading at first glance. Despite share price having risen quite a bit lately, current-year P/E remains largely flat versus the end of Q1.</p>\n<p>AMZN currently trades at a current-year earnings multiple of 65.8 times. As of March 31, the multiple was only a bit lower, at nearly 64 times. The “catch”: earnings projections for 2021 have increased almost as fast as the stock price, keeping valuations largely stable.</p>\n<p>Take a step back and notice how multiples have, in fact, compressed in the past 12 months. The graph below shows that all major valuation metrics look more compelling now than they did in June 2020 – by quite a bit, in most cases.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a51064cda4b7966d09c743aba43c5a6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: AMZN historical valuation multiples. Alpha Spread</span></p>\n<p>Then, there are the undeniable secular trends that are highly favorable to Amazon. It all starts withan e-commerce business that is on fire in the US, and that has yet to catch on more meaningfully abroad. In addition, Amazon will likely be a key beneficiary of the ongoing transition to cloud through AWS.</p>\n<p>The two bullish arguments above can be combined into one “theory of everything” that supports a buy of Amazon stock today. Should the cloud and e-commerce giant grow earnings at the expected pace, and assuming today’s share price, AMZN will trade at a very depressed P/E of 20 times 2025 EPS.</p>\n<p>Unless Amazon gives up its position of leadership in cloud and retail in the next few years, this looks like quite an investment opportunity.</p>\n<p><b>The Amazon Maven’s verdict</b></p>\n<p>I have presented above both sides of the argument without clearly picking one of them. This is by design: I believe that Amazon stock could very well ebb and flow in the short term, possibly resisting to climbing much further from the most recent peak.</p>\n<p>However, I also think that long-term investors are more likely to benefit from buying AMZN today – provided that they hang on to their position for at least a few years to ride out any potential short-term drag to share price.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter speaks</b></p>\n<p>Amazon stock is inches away from reaching all-time highs once again, nearly 10 months after the previous peak. What is the best course of action from here?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb107b4e2073a678ffb8349f1204ad0\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock Nears All-Time Highs: What To Do Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock Nears All-Time Highs: What To Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-nears-all-time-highs-what-to-do-next><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Amazon stock is flirting with all-time highs, after nearly 10 months underwater. Here is what investors should consider before buying or selling shares near peak price.\n\nIt has been 293 calendar days ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-nears-all-time-highs-what-to-do-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-nears-all-time-highs-what-to-do-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141692311","content_text":"Amazon stock is flirting with all-time highs, after nearly 10 months underwater. Here is what investors should consider before buying or selling shares near peak price.\n\nIt has been 293 calendar days – and still counting, for now. Amazon stock (AMZN) has not been able to reach all-time highs since early September 2020, butthe spell is about to be broken. Shares ended the June 22 session priced at $3,505, only 0.7% below the $3,531 peak of nearly 10 months ago.\nWith the milestone within sight, the Amazon Maven discusses what investors should do now: buy AMZN on momentum, or stay away on ramping valuations?\nThe bearish view\nThere are a few reasons for investors to be wary of Amazon at current levels. From a price perspective, the nearly 10% rally of the past two weeks is tied for the sharpest gain since July 2020. Those who did not buy AMZN below $3,200 only a few days ago may have passed on a decent upside opportunity.\nOn a related subject, Amazon shares havehistorically performed more poorly than averagein the month following Prime Day – the likely result of “sell the news” pressures. Since shares have climbed so far in the days leading to the June event, the headwinds could be even more pronounced this year.\nFrom a business fundamentals perspective, Amazon remains in thecrosshairs of the government on matters of antitrust. The company is at risk of being more heavily regulated, and bearish developments on new antitrust legislation could surface at any moment.\nLastly, Amazon shares have enjoyed the highly favorable macroeconomic and market environment of today: a recovery leading to strength in e-commerce, coupled withdeclining rates that are bullishfor the stock andstable asset prices. It is unclear, however, how much longer this period of calm will last.\nThinking long-term\nHaving said the above, there are at least as many reasons to buy Amazon stock today, even near a historical peak. First, valuations can be misleading at first glance. Despite share price having risen quite a bit lately, current-year P/E remains largely flat versus the end of Q1.\nAMZN currently trades at a current-year earnings multiple of 65.8 times. As of March 31, the multiple was only a bit lower, at nearly 64 times. The “catch”: earnings projections for 2021 have increased almost as fast as the stock price, keeping valuations largely stable.\nTake a step back and notice how multiples have, in fact, compressed in the past 12 months. The graph below shows that all major valuation metrics look more compelling now than they did in June 2020 – by quite a bit, in most cases.\nFigure 2: AMZN historical valuation multiples. Alpha Spread\nThen, there are the undeniable secular trends that are highly favorable to Amazon. It all starts withan e-commerce business that is on fire in the US, and that has yet to catch on more meaningfully abroad. In addition, Amazon will likely be a key beneficiary of the ongoing transition to cloud through AWS.\nThe two bullish arguments above can be combined into one “theory of everything” that supports a buy of Amazon stock today. Should the cloud and e-commerce giant grow earnings at the expected pace, and assuming today’s share price, AMZN will trade at a very depressed P/E of 20 times 2025 EPS.\nUnless Amazon gives up its position of leadership in cloud and retail in the next few years, this looks like quite an investment opportunity.\nThe Amazon Maven’s verdict\nI have presented above both sides of the argument without clearly picking one of them. This is by design: I believe that Amazon stock could very well ebb and flow in the short term, possibly resisting to climbing much further from the most recent peak.\nHowever, I also think that long-term investors are more likely to benefit from buying AMZN today – provided that they hang on to their position for at least a few years to ride out any potential short-term drag to share price.\nTwitter speaks\nAmazon stock is inches away from reaching all-time highs once again, nearly 10 months after the previous peak. What is the best course of action from here?","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121308326,"gmtCreate":1624452311065,"gmtModify":1703837083286,"author":{"id":"3582003796597164","authorId":"3582003796597164","name":"GANZY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/625f973ba76ad7b38c062733a7345385","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582003796597164","idStr":"3582003796597164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"amc!!","listText":"amc!!","text":"amc!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121308326","repostId":"1113795668","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":121308326,"gmtCreate":1624452311065,"gmtModify":1703837083286,"author":{"id":"3582003796597164","authorId":"3582003796597164","name":"GANZY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/625f973ba76ad7b38c062733a7345385","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582003796597164","authorIdStr":"3582003796597164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"amc!!","listText":"amc!!","text":"amc!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121308326","repostId":"1113795668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113795668","pubTimestamp":1624447267,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113795668?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC: An Open Letter To The Apes - The Stock Market And Reality","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113795668","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nEarnings drive stock prices over the long run, even for AMC. Here's the data.\nThe economics","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Earnings drive stock prices over the long run, even for AMC. Here's the data.</li>\n <li>The economics of buying an AMC movie theater rather than the stock.</li>\n <li>Shorting AMC is mostly common sense, not a conspiracy. And where investors may have to be more careful.</li>\n <li>Emotion may tell you to buy. Reason will tell you to sell.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I’ve written two articles recently for Seeking Alpha on AMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC), one onJune 4and one onJune 17. The comments I have gotten back in response to the articles were eye-opening for me. I feel like I’ve been let into a world I didn’t know existed. Which means that I also must seem pretty odd to the inhabitants of this ape-world. So, I’d like to explain my point of view in this open letter.</p>\n<p><b>Why I keep harping on AMC’s earnings</b></p>\n<p>One shocker to me is that literally<i>no</i>comment that disagreed with my AMC view ever challenged me on earnings. The same is true for comments on my sell calls on Zillow(NASDAQ:Z), Redfin(NASDAQ:RDFN), Rocket Companies(NYSE:RKT)and Opendoor(NASDAQ:OPEN). So, why do I keep talking about earnings?<i>Because that’s how stocks work.</i>First, common sense says that it works. A share of stock is a share ownership of a company; that’s just a fact. We start and own businesses in order to earn money.</p>\n<p>Second, history says that the relationship between earnings and stock prices exists. A few charts will illustrate this point. First, let’s compare the S&amp;P 500 index with S&amp;P 500 EPS a year ahead:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d09e129752eec6290923863d17249487\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Sources:Yahoo Finance,Yardeni Research</i></p>\n<p>The stock market clearly moves with earnings expectations. Now, let’s look at an individual stock. I chose McDonald’s(NYSE:MCD):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/092d5bc6eb84253ba4ae6fea1f92113f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Sources:Yahoo Finance,company reports</i></p>\n<p>Once again, a clear correlation – McDonald’s earns more, investors pay more to own it. Let’s now turn to a company whose earnings prospects took a turn – GoPro(NASDAQ:GPRO):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cb1e3a96d4e6e70cc8cb8dbc3b4643f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Sources:Yahoo Finance,company reports</i></p>\n<p>GoPro’s stock price leaped after its IPO on the assumption that booming sales of its cameras would send earnings soaring above its 2014 EPS of $1.32. But smartphones – the cameras in our pockets – diverted sales away from GoPro, and its EPS took a serious slide into negative territory. In response, the stock tanked. It has only recently made a modest recovery as GoPro management managed to start earning money.<i>Again, a clear link between earnings and the stock price</i>.</p>\n<p>OK, one more – company X:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b9e1ded9a66995ca17edc221ddd9a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Sources:Yahoo Finance,company reports</i></p>\n<p>Another excellent correlation between earnings and stock price. This company saw some EPS growth during 2015 and 2016, but earnings then turned south. The stock price followed.</p>\n<p>Who is this company X? I bet you guessed it – AMC!<i>Up until the pandemic hit, AMC’s stock performed like other stocks – on earnings expectations. It will again.</i></p>\n<p><b>Do you want to own an AMC theater?</b></p>\n<p>Instead of owning AMC stock, how about if you owned an AMC theater? This way, you are a real business owner.</p>\n<p>At last look, AMC’s market cap is $30.5 billion. Add in about $3.5 billion of debt less cash and we’ll say that AMC’s theaters are currently valued at $34 billion. At the beginning of this year, AMC had 950 movie theaters. That means, each theater is valued today at $36 million.</p>\n<p>If you don’t borrow money to pay your $36 million, my best guess from AMC’s financials is that you’ll rake in $220,000 in profits. Not bad, right? A cool 0.6% return on your investment. A return likely to shrink over time as we spend more time streaming and less time at the movies. Or you could buy more current favorite stock MGIC(NYSE:MTG), which last year generatedcash EPS of $2.45, an 18% return on its current stock price. But you would have to give up the free movie tickets from owning a theater. Your choice. I’ve gone for the latter. 18% &gt; 0.6%.</p>\n<p><b>Is it really different this time?</b></p>\n<p>Will AMC stock continue to rise just because apes continue to put more and more money in it? Can AMC become a permanent short squeeze?</p>\n<p>I’m old. While that means my tennis game is sinking, it also has allowed me to see lots of “it’s different this time” stories. They almost never work. Gravity takes over and brings magical beliefs back to earth. The ‘80s commercial real estate boom, the ‘90s internet boom, the ‘00s housing boom, all relied on broad-based beliefs that this time was different, and if you didn’t agree, “you don’t get it”. Gravity brought all three beliefs painfully back to earth. Betting against gravity is a serious long shot.</p>\n<p><b>Is the stock market fixed?</b></p>\n<p>Lots of the comments to my articles suggested that meme investing is revenge against a financial system fixed against the little guy and gal. I consider myself to be pretty cynical, but I can’t see the stock market as a whole as fixed. Some evidence:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>The link I established above between earnings and stock prices.</i>This means that, in the long run, it is company performance that determines stock prices, not Wall Street.</li>\n <li><i>Mutual funds routinely underperform index funds.</i>Big fund complexes like BlackRock, T. Rowe Price and Fidelity all have highly paid analysts and portfolio managers running their money. But many studies have shown that they generally do<i>worse</i>than market averages. So, they are no better than we are.</li>\n <li><i>Hedge funds have done even worse.</i>For example,NASDAQreported that the average hedge fund earned 11% in 2020, well below the S&amp;P 500 18% return. And they did far worse in 2019 – up 10% compared to +31% for the S&amp;P 500. My belief is that hedge funds have too much money chasing a small group of trades. Now, hedge fund<i>managers</i>can make obscene amounts of money because of their lucrative 2%/20% compensation structure. That’s another story. But hedge fund investors have been left behind.</li>\n <li><i>Wall Street is blanketed with regulations aimed at levelling the playing field.</i>There are rules against insider trading, selectively disseminating material information and many other forms of bad behavior. Of course, smart people can and do slip by some rules, but rampant cheating is quite difficult to achieve.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Are short sellers lying to support their positions?</b></p>\n<p>There certainly are cases of this, but a far simpler answer explains why GameStop(NYSE:GME)and AMC are short targets. Come on – both are store-based businesses in an increasingly online world, right? With several years of losses behind them already. Blockbuster, Sears, Pier One… shorting the Old Economy is not rocket science.</p>\n<p>But how are potential investors in these New Age companies supposed to deal with these dramatic claims?</p>\n<p>Zillow. From its10-K:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “ \n <i>As we continue to expand into transaction-related services, our Total Addressable Market [TAM] has expanded from $19 billion in U.S. real estate related advertising…to $2.2 trillion of annual home sales…</i>”\n</blockquote>\n<p>Sounds awesome, right? $2.2&nbsp;<i>trillion</i>&nbsp;of potential revenues for Zillow. Except if home sellers expect to keep some of the proceeds of their home sales. In fact, the average real estate commission is 4.5%, giving Zillow an actual TAM of $100 billion. $100 billion &lt; $2.2 trillion. By a<i>lot.</i></p>\n<p>Rocket Mortgage. From itsQ1 earnings conference call:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “ \n <i>As we continue to expand our platform, creating certainty for clients in categories that have historically been challenging, the opportunity for Rocket Companies is gigantic. Consider this; when combined real estate, automotive sales and financial services, all markets where we're helping to lead the way, account for nearly one third of the US GDP</i>.” (My highlighting)\n</blockquote>\n<p>Wow! Amazon&nbsp;(NASDAQ:AMZN)&nbsp;will soon be a blip in Rocket’s rear-view mirror if I believe any of this. By the way, check out Rocket’s insider sales while management is dishing out this hype.</p>\n<p><b>Emotions versus reason</b></p>\n<p>I see a lot of anger, frustration, and revenge in the AMC comments. Life stinks a lot, so I get the rationale for these emotions. But I have learned that emotions are the enemy of successful investing.<i>Any</i>emotions, ranging from fear to enthusiasm. Rational thinking about a company’s value, or even (not my style) investors’ moods, has proven to work better.</p>\n<p>All of us primates, human and ape, are heavily driven by emotions (even me!), so we are never going to squeeze all of them out of our investment decisions. But the more squeezing, the better.</p>\n<p><b>All of the above says “Sell AMC”</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>AMC’s earnings prospects can’t come close to supporting the current stock price. Gravity will do its job.</li>\n <li>If you don’t want to own a movie theater, don’t own the stock.</li>\n <li>AMC short sellers are driven more by common sense than by some conspiracy.</li>\n <li>AMC’s stock price contains an enormous emotional content, and a change in those fickle emotions will change the stock price quickly.</li>\n</ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC: An Open Letter To The Apes - The Stock Market And Reality</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC: An Open Letter To The Apes - The Stock Market And Reality\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436112-amc-stock-open-letter-to-apes-stock-market-and-reality><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nEarnings drive stock prices over the long run, even for AMC. Here's the data.\nThe economics of buying an AMC movie theater rather than the stock.\nShorting AMC is mostly common sense, not a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436112-amc-stock-open-letter-to-apes-stock-market-and-reality\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436112-amc-stock-open-letter-to-apes-stock-market-and-reality","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1113795668","content_text":"Summary\n\nEarnings drive stock prices over the long run, even for AMC. Here's the data.\nThe economics of buying an AMC movie theater rather than the stock.\nShorting AMC is mostly common sense, not a conspiracy. And where investors may have to be more careful.\nEmotion may tell you to buy. Reason will tell you to sell.\n\nI’ve written two articles recently for Seeking Alpha on AMC Entertainment Holdings(NYSE:AMC), one onJune 4and one onJune 17. The comments I have gotten back in response to the articles were eye-opening for me. I feel like I’ve been let into a world I didn’t know existed. Which means that I also must seem pretty odd to the inhabitants of this ape-world. So, I’d like to explain my point of view in this open letter.\nWhy I keep harping on AMC’s earnings\nOne shocker to me is that literallynocomment that disagreed with my AMC view ever challenged me on earnings. The same is true for comments on my sell calls on Zillow(NASDAQ:Z), Redfin(NASDAQ:RDFN), Rocket Companies(NYSE:RKT)and Opendoor(NASDAQ:OPEN). So, why do I keep talking about earnings?Because that’s how stocks work.First, common sense says that it works. A share of stock is a share ownership of a company; that’s just a fact. We start and own businesses in order to earn money.\nSecond, history says that the relationship between earnings and stock prices exists. A few charts will illustrate this point. First, let’s compare the S&P 500 index with S&P 500 EPS a year ahead:\n\nSources:Yahoo Finance,Yardeni Research\nThe stock market clearly moves with earnings expectations. Now, let’s look at an individual stock. I chose McDonald’s(NYSE:MCD):\n\nSources:Yahoo Finance,company reports\nOnce again, a clear correlation – McDonald’s earns more, investors pay more to own it. Let’s now turn to a company whose earnings prospects took a turn – GoPro(NASDAQ:GPRO):\n\nSources:Yahoo Finance,company reports\nGoPro’s stock price leaped after its IPO on the assumption that booming sales of its cameras would send earnings soaring above its 2014 EPS of $1.32. But smartphones – the cameras in our pockets – diverted sales away from GoPro, and its EPS took a serious slide into negative territory. In response, the stock tanked. It has only recently made a modest recovery as GoPro management managed to start earning money.Again, a clear link between earnings and the stock price.\nOK, one more – company X:\n\nSources:Yahoo Finance,company reports\nAnother excellent correlation between earnings and stock price. This company saw some EPS growth during 2015 and 2016, but earnings then turned south. The stock price followed.\nWho is this company X? I bet you guessed it – AMC!Up until the pandemic hit, AMC’s stock performed like other stocks – on earnings expectations. It will again.\nDo you want to own an AMC theater?\nInstead of owning AMC stock, how about if you owned an AMC theater? This way, you are a real business owner.\nAt last look, AMC’s market cap is $30.5 billion. Add in about $3.5 billion of debt less cash and we’ll say that AMC’s theaters are currently valued at $34 billion. At the beginning of this year, AMC had 950 movie theaters. That means, each theater is valued today at $36 million.\nIf you don’t borrow money to pay your $36 million, my best guess from AMC’s financials is that you’ll rake in $220,000 in profits. Not bad, right? A cool 0.6% return on your investment. A return likely to shrink over time as we spend more time streaming and less time at the movies. Or you could buy more current favorite stock MGIC(NYSE:MTG), which last year generatedcash EPS of $2.45, an 18% return on its current stock price. But you would have to give up the free movie tickets from owning a theater. Your choice. I’ve gone for the latter. 18% > 0.6%.\nIs it really different this time?\nWill AMC stock continue to rise just because apes continue to put more and more money in it? Can AMC become a permanent short squeeze?\nI’m old. While that means my tennis game is sinking, it also has allowed me to see lots of “it’s different this time” stories. They almost never work. Gravity takes over and brings magical beliefs back to earth. The ‘80s commercial real estate boom, the ‘90s internet boom, the ‘00s housing boom, all relied on broad-based beliefs that this time was different, and if you didn’t agree, “you don’t get it”. Gravity brought all three beliefs painfully back to earth. Betting against gravity is a serious long shot.\nIs the stock market fixed?\nLots of the comments to my articles suggested that meme investing is revenge against a financial system fixed against the little guy and gal. I consider myself to be pretty cynical, but I can’t see the stock market as a whole as fixed. Some evidence:\n\nThe link I established above between earnings and stock prices.This means that, in the long run, it is company performance that determines stock prices, not Wall Street.\nMutual funds routinely underperform index funds.Big fund complexes like BlackRock, T. Rowe Price and Fidelity all have highly paid analysts and portfolio managers running their money. But many studies have shown that they generally doworsethan market averages. So, they are no better than we are.\nHedge funds have done even worse.For example,NASDAQreported that the average hedge fund earned 11% in 2020, well below the S&P 500 18% return. And they did far worse in 2019 – up 10% compared to +31% for the S&P 500. My belief is that hedge funds have too much money chasing a small group of trades. Now, hedge fundmanagerscan make obscene amounts of money because of their lucrative 2%/20% compensation structure. That’s another story. But hedge fund investors have been left behind.\nWall Street is blanketed with regulations aimed at levelling the playing field.There are rules against insider trading, selectively disseminating material information and many other forms of bad behavior. Of course, smart people can and do slip by some rules, but rampant cheating is quite difficult to achieve.\n\nAre short sellers lying to support their positions?\nThere certainly are cases of this, but a far simpler answer explains why GameStop(NYSE:GME)and AMC are short targets. Come on – both are store-based businesses in an increasingly online world, right? With several years of losses behind them already. Blockbuster, Sears, Pier One… shorting the Old Economy is not rocket science.\nBut how are potential investors in these New Age companies supposed to deal with these dramatic claims?\nZillow. From its10-K:\n\n “ \n As we continue to expand into transaction-related services, our Total Addressable Market [TAM] has expanded from $19 billion in U.S. real estate related advertising…to $2.2 trillion of annual home sales…”\n\nSounds awesome, right? $2.2 trillion of potential revenues for Zillow. Except if home sellers expect to keep some of the proceeds of their home sales. In fact, the average real estate commission is 4.5%, giving Zillow an actual TAM of $100 billion. $100 billion < $2.2 trillion. By alot.\nRocket Mortgage. From itsQ1 earnings conference call:\n\n “ \n As we continue to expand our platform, creating certainty for clients in categories that have historically been challenging, the opportunity for Rocket Companies is gigantic. Consider this; when combined real estate, automotive sales and financial services, all markets where we're helping to lead the way, account for nearly one third of the US GDP.” (My highlighting)\n\nWow! Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) will soon be a blip in Rocket’s rear-view mirror if I believe any of this. By the way, check out Rocket’s insider sales while management is dishing out this hype.\nEmotions versus reason\nI see a lot of anger, frustration, and revenge in the AMC comments. Life stinks a lot, so I get the rationale for these emotions. But I have learned that emotions are the enemy of successful investing.Anyemotions, ranging from fear to enthusiasm. Rational thinking about a company’s value, or even (not my style) investors’ moods, has proven to work better.\nAll of us primates, human and ape, are heavily driven by emotions (even me!), so we are never going to squeeze all of them out of our investment decisions. But the more squeezing, the better.\nAll of the above says “Sell AMC”\n\nAMC’s earnings prospects can’t come close to supporting the current stock price. Gravity will do its job.\nIf you don’t want to own a movie theater, don’t own the stock.\nAMC short sellers are driven more by common sense than by some conspiracy.\nAMC’s stock price contains an enormous emotional content, and a change in those fickle emotions will change the stock price quickly.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121302356,"gmtCreate":1624452440175,"gmtModify":1703837085870,"author":{"id":"3582003796597164","authorId":"3582003796597164","name":"GANZY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/625f973ba76ad7b38c062733a7345385","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582003796597164","authorIdStr":"3582003796597164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121302356","repostId":"1141692311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121380723,"gmtCreate":1624453862762,"gmtModify":1703837133778,"author":{"id":"3582003796597164","authorId":"3582003796597164","name":"GANZY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/625f973ba76ad7b38c062733a7345385","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582003796597164","authorIdStr":"3582003796597164"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121380723","repostId":"1116009757","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116009757","pubTimestamp":1624429965,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116009757?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 14:32","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"SoftBank-Backed Robotics Firm EDDA Weighs Hong Kong IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116009757","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"EDDA Health careand Technology Holding Ltd., a robotic surgery firm backed bySoftBank Group Corp., i","content":"<p>EDDA&nbsp;Health&nbsp;careand Technology Holding Ltd., a robotic surgery firm backed bySoftBank Group Corp., is considering a Hong Kong initial public offering that could value the company at about $1 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p>China-based EDDA is working with advisers as it seeks to raise about $300 million in a share sale, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. An IPO could take place as early as this year, depending onmarket conditions, the people said.</p>\n<p>Deliberations are in the early stages and no final decisions on the size and timing of any listing have been made, according to the people. A representative for EDDA didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>\n<p>EDDA develops precision 3D medical imaging to help physicians plan for surgery, perform operations and conduct post-op evaluations of patients. The companyraised$150 million in April in a private funding round led by SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2. Other investors in the fundraise includeOrbiMedAdvisorsand3W Fund Management.</p>\n<p>It plans to use the proceeds of the fundraising on innovation in precision surgery to treat diseases such as cancer, and to further expand in Chinese cities where hospitals need surgical robots, EDDA said in a statement at the time.</p>\n<p>Companies have raised about $26 billion via Hong Kong IPOs this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Momentum has picked up in June after a two-month lull, as listing candidates and bankers rush to complete deals before the usual summer slowdown. At least11 companieshave announced plans to go public in the Asian financial hub this month, the data show.</p>\n<p>Two health-care firms joined the mix on Tuesday. Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology Co.kicked offthe roadshow for an IPO that could raise as much as $330 million, and Medlive Technology Co.startedgauging demand for its proposed offering.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoftBank-Backed Robotics Firm EDDA Weighs Hong Kong IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoftBank-Backed Robotics Firm EDDA Weighs Hong Kong IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 14:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/softbank-backed-robotics-firm-edda-said-to-weigh-hong-kong-ipo><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>EDDA Health careand Technology Holding Ltd., a robotic surgery firm backed bySoftBank Group Corp., is considering a Hong Kong initial public offering that could value the company at about $1 billion, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/softbank-backed-robotics-firm-edda-said-to-weigh-hong-kong-ipo\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SFTBY":"软银集团"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-23/softbank-backed-robotics-firm-edda-said-to-weigh-hong-kong-ipo","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116009757","content_text":"EDDA Health careand Technology Holding Ltd., a robotic surgery firm backed bySoftBank Group Corp., is considering a Hong Kong initial public offering that could value the company at about $1 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.\nChina-based EDDA is working with advisers as it seeks to raise about $300 million in a share sale, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. An IPO could take place as early as this year, depending onmarket conditions, the people said.\nDeliberations are in the early stages and no final decisions on the size and timing of any listing have been made, according to the people. A representative for EDDA didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.\nEDDA develops precision 3D medical imaging to help physicians plan for surgery, perform operations and conduct post-op evaluations of patients. The companyraised$150 million in April in a private funding round led by SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2. Other investors in the fundraise includeOrbiMedAdvisorsand3W Fund Management.\nIt plans to use the proceeds of the fundraising on innovation in precision surgery to treat diseases such as cancer, and to further expand in Chinese cities where hospitals need surgical robots, EDDA said in a statement at the time.\nCompanies have raised about $26 billion via Hong Kong IPOs this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Momentum has picked up in June after a two-month lull, as listing candidates and bankers rush to complete deals before the usual summer slowdown. At least11 companieshave announced plans to go public in the Asian financial hub this month, the data show.\nTwo health-care firms joined the mix on Tuesday. Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology Co.kicked offthe roadshow for an IPO that could raise as much as $330 million, and Medlive Technology Co.startedgauging demand for its proposed offering.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}