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2022-11-30

Gold time to buy

XPeng Co-Founder Henry Xia Resigns As Board Executive Director

2022-09-15

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Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More

2022-09-15

🤔

This Week in Crypto: Inflation Frustrates Market Attempts to Advance Higher

2022-08-11

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you are amazing!

2022-06-06

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you can do it!

2022-06-06

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you can do it!

2022-05-09

Time to go green!

2022-03-29

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$nice!

2022-03-28

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you are my hope

2022-03-23

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!

2022-03-22

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$keep going!

2022-03-21

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$go go go!

2022-03-08

Like pls

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2022-03-02

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my hope still is you!

2022-02-27

Done

Buffett Full Annual Letter：Apple is One of ‘Four Giants’ Driving the Conglomerate’s Value

2022-02-25

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$👍

2022-02-22

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you can do it!

2022-02-19

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$forever with you ♥!

2022-02-17

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$I know you can do it!

2022-02-16

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!

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time to buy","listText":"Gold time to buy","text":"Gold time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962535509","repostId":"1141024397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141024397","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669800806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141024397?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 17:33","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"XPeng Co-Founder Henry Xia Resigns As Board Executive Director","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141024397","media":"CnEVPost","summary":"Henry Xia, co-founder and president of XPeng Motors, resigned as an executive director of the compan","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Henry Xia, co-founder and president of XPeng Motors, resigned as an executive director of the company&#39;s board of directors effective November 30, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement today.</p><p>This is due to XPeng&#39;s recent organizational restructuring and personal matters, the announcement said.</p><p>Mr. Xia confirmed that he has no disagreement with the board and that the XPeng board thanked him for his contribution during his tenure as executive director, the announcement said.</p><p>XPeng&#39;s current board consists of seven members, including one executive director, three non-executive directors and three independent non-executive directors, according to a separate announcement.</p><p>On October 21, local media Jiemian cited sources as saying that XPeng was undergoing an organizational restructuring, with the biggest change being that it would move to a business unit-based management structure to improve the previously overly centralized structure that had dragged down operational efficiency.</p><p>The immediate reason for XPeng&#39;s organizational restructuring is the problems with the G9 launch -- complex and incomprehensible product SKUs, product planning divorced from user needs and marketing failures, Jiemian&#39;s report said, citing a source familiar with the matter.</p><p>He Xiaopeng, the company&#39;s chairman and CEO, hopes the move will lead to an overall improvement in previously overly centralized management, reduce communication costs and get close to users to understand real user needs, the report said.</p><p>In a November 1 statement announcing XPeng&#39;s October delivery figures, Mr. He confirmed that he had recently made organizational changes to the company.</p><p>&#34;I&#39;ve recently optimized our organizational structures and am confident that we are better aligned with customer demands and market trends with our differentiated Smart EV products,&#34; Mr. He said at the time.</p><p>On November 8, Cailian reported that XPeng&#39;s organizational structure isnearing completion, citing sources familiar with the matter.</p><p>XPeng delivered 5,101 vehicles in October, down 39.76 percent from 8,468 in September and down 49.68 percent from 10,138 in the same month last year.</p><p>The company will report its third-quarter earnings later today, and its November delivery figures are expected to be known tomorrow.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Co-Founder Henry Xia Resigns As Board Executive Director</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Co-Founder Henry Xia Resigns As Board Executive Director\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-30 17:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/30/xpeng-henry-xia-resigns-as-board-executive-director/><strong>CnEVPost</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Henry Xia, co-founder and president of XPeng Motors, resigned as an executive director of the company's board of directors effective November 30, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/30/xpeng-henry-xia-resigns-as-board-executive-director/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/30/xpeng-henry-xia-resigns-as-board-executive-director/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141024397","content_text":"Henry Xia, co-founder and president of XPeng Motors, resigned as an executive director of the company's board of directors effective November 30, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement today.This is due to XPeng's recent organizational restructuring and personal matters, the announcement said.Mr. Xia confirmed that he has no disagreement with the board and that the XPeng board thanked him for his contribution during his tenure as executive director, the announcement said.XPeng's current board consists of seven members, including one executive director, three non-executive directors and three independent non-executive directors, according to a separate announcement.On October 21, local media Jiemian cited sources as saying that XPeng was undergoing an organizational restructuring, with the biggest change being that it would move to a business unit-based management structure to improve the previously overly centralized structure that had dragged down operational efficiency.The immediate reason for XPeng's organizational restructuring is the problems with the G9 launch -- complex and incomprehensible product SKUs, product planning divorced from user needs and marketing failures, Jiemian's report said, citing a source familiar with the matter.He Xiaopeng, the company's chairman and CEO, hopes the move will lead to an overall improvement in previously overly centralized management, reduce communication costs and get close to users to understand real user needs, the report said.In a November 1 statement announcing XPeng's October delivery figures, Mr. He confirmed that he had recently made organizational changes to the company.\"I've recently optimized our organizational structures and am confident that we are better aligned with customer demands and market trends with our differentiated Smart EV products,\" Mr. He said at the time.On November 8, Cailian reported that XPeng's organizational structure isnearing completion, citing sources familiar with the matter.XPeng delivered 5,101 vehicles in October, down 39.76 percent from 8,468 in September and down 49.68 percent from 10,138 in the same month last year.The company will report its third-quarter earnings later today, and its November delivery figures are expected to be known tomorrow.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934212761,"gmtCreate":1663254169753,"gmtModify":1676537237768,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GIVE a like","listText":"GIVE a like","text":"GIVE a like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934212761","repostId":"1151063859","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151063859","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663252348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151063859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151063859","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>With slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft&#39;s stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.</li><li>Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are set to pressure corporate earnings, and while Microsoft&#39;s numbers might hold up better than most peers, it is not immune to the economy.</li><li>In recent weeks, Microsoft&#39;s insiders (including the CEO &amp; CFO) have been cashing out of the stock in a big way. Is it time for retail investors to sell too?</li><li>While Microsoft is a great company, its premium valuation is a recipe for single-digit returns over the next five years.</li><li>For investors comfortable with mid-single digit returns in exchange for greater stability, holding MSFT at current levels is ok (but far from ideal). I rate MSFT &#39;Neutral&#39; at $252 per share.</li></ul><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>On Tuesday, Microsoft&#39;s (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock got hammered down along with broader markets [S&amp;P 500 down ~4%, Nasdaq-100 down 5%+] on concerns regarding a hotter-than-expected CPI print (8.3% in August 2022), and more so due to rising expectations of a ~75-100 bps rate hike from the FED at its September meeting next week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdd9276850280fde49f1571850b8dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finviz</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8b481a1dbe9f80d2dd6338e7929cf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNBC</p><p>After this latest price drop, Microsoft is staring at the prospect of retesting its 52-week lows of ~$240, last seen in June 2022. In my recent notes on Microsoft, I have rated the stock &#39;Neutral / Avoid&#39;, citing the sheer lack of risk premium. Furthermore, we have discussed the potential of a ~30-50% decline in Microsoft&#39;s stock due to an inevitable normalization of trading multiples, given the current macroeconomic environment.</p><p>In today&#39;s note, I would like to draw your attention to the ongoing insider selling, rising macro risk, worsening business fundamentals, and Microsoft&#39;s excessive absolute valuation.</p><p><b>Insiders Are Selling Hand Over Fist</b></p><p>Back in November 2021, Satya Nadella (Microsoft&#39;s CEO) sold roughly half of his Microsoft shares for around ~$340, which as of today, looks like him nailing the exact top on the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b598b689ee9280c8a82e6fbb6c4b855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nasdaq</p><p>And then, since late August, Satya has been at it again, selling ~167K shares [disposing of all of his latest stock grants and some additional shares]. Moreover, Amy Hood (Microsoft&#39;s CFO) joined in the fun last week and sold many of her shares, cashing out millions of dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01da63e92c7af417306e354c94158a77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nasdaq</p><p>With C-suite executives cashing out, it is fair to ask, &#34;Is it time for retail investors to get out of Microsoft?&#34; Let&#39;s find out.</p><p>Where Do We Stand And How Much Lower Could MSFT Go From Here?</p><p>After fading its latest rally, Microsoft&#39;s stock is hovering right above its June lows of ~$240 per share. Over the last year or so, Microsoft&#39;s trading multiples have been normalizing. With a P/E ratio of ~26x, Microsoft stock is far from cheap, especially because in a high-inflation environment, index multiples tend to go far lower than historical P/E averages of 15-20x. Even if Microsoft were to simply go down to 20x P/E, that would mean a 25-30% correction in the stock (&amp; that is only mean reversion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c8ec23056c1861a50cff72e4a7ba0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Furthermore, if Microsoft&#39;s earnings moderate over the next few quarters like they generally do at this stage of the cycle for technology companies, its stock may have much more downside risk than what has been priced at this moment. During the 2007-09 recession, Microsoft&#39;s FCF yield rose to ~11%, and if we were to end up going that high, the stock would probably need to fall by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519927c5ff03fa1e8ccaa8196fd425f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Comparing Microsoft&#39;s free cash flow yield (of 3.43%) with treasury rates (&gt;3.5%), you can easily see the lack of risk premium attached to Microsoft&#39;s stock, i.e., the market is telling us that Microsoft is safer than treasuries. While this may be true to some extent, Microsoft&#39;s business is not immune from broader macro, and it certainly doesn&#39;t have the liberty of printing money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0acf3faa059e9652f28ca08cbb4c6c75\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Treasury Rates on 13th September 2022 (CNBC)</p><p>Persistent inflation, surging interest rates, and a potential economic recession are set to bring several headwinds for Microsoft, and the stock may continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. Let&#39;s discuss some business fundamentals of Microsoft to ensure we are on the same page here.</p><p><b>Business Fundamentals Are Deteriorating</b></p><p>Microsoft&#39;s latest quarterly results met street expectations. Since these numbers have been widely discussed, we won&#39;t explore them today. Rather, I think we should look at the bigger picture by zooming out a little. In Q4 FY22, Microsoft&#39;s revenue growth rate continued decelerating, with operating margins also decreasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028e0d5bd23551eda76fe1fd5b5f8a4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>For FY-23, Microsoft&#39;s management expects double-digit growth in revenues and operating income [despite operating margins projected to remain flat]. While this guidance seemed to have buoyed analysts and investors alike [with MSFT&#39;s stock rocketing up to $290 per share], I don&#39;t think these numbers would be achieved in a recession [that&#39;s looking likelier by the day]. Back in 2007-09 (during the global financial crisis), Microsoft&#39;s revenues and operating margins declined significantly, which shows that Microsoft is not immune to the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ccf2abbbf515944557a249d5502482\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft FY2023 Outlook</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3bff8de6f97517863566aac7a80521\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft FY2023 Outlook</p><p>During Microsoft&#39;s Q4-FY2022 earnings call, the company&#39;s CEO and CFO made it clear that the tech giant is not immune to the macroeconomic environment and that its FY2023 guidance was based on the current macro environment. Here&#39;s an excerpt from the latest earnings call transcript (the must-read parts are highlighted in bold):</p><blockquote><b>MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein:</b>Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter. I&#39;d like to follow up a little bit on that.<b>With all the concerns about macro recession, everyone&#39;s trying to understand how cloud, and from Microsoft&#39;s case more specifically, IaaS, PaaS operates in a slowdown recession. How do you think about Azure&#39;s resiliency? How do you think about Azure&#39;s exposure to advertising business, consumer Internet and SMB if we do see a real recession?</b>Thank you.</blockquote><blockquote><b>SATYA NADELLA:</b>Yeah, maybe I&#39;ll start, and Amy, feel free to add.<b>I mean, overall, we&#39;re not immune to what&#39;s happening in the macro broadly</b>, right, to Keith&#39;s question and your question Mark. I think I&#39;d say I&#39;d start there, because whether it&#39;s on the demand side with consumers or SMBs, I think Amy in her remarks talked about some of that, even in our results in the quarter. But what&#39;s happening with it in Azure, though, is in some sense, businesses trying to deal with the overall macroeconomic situation and trying to make sure that they can do more with less.</blockquote><blockquote>For example, moving to the cloud is the best way to shape your spend with demand uncertainty, right, because in fact, if anything, one of the things that we&#39;re seeing is an increased shift towards the cloud, and then of course, optimizing your bill. We are incenting even our own field to ensure that the bills for our customers come down. And that, in fact, even shows up in some of the volatility in our Azure numbers, because that&#39;s one of the big benefits of the public cloud. And that&#39;s why I think, coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner, because it does act as that deflationary force.</blockquote><blockquote>So, that&#39;s sort of what we are seeing in the Azure numbers. We will be exposed to consumer driven businesses and SMBs, but at some level, our strength as a company is much stronger in the core commercial. So, I think that will do fine there.</blockquote><blockquote>The other one is also people building new applications that are completely new frontier. I mean, there are two numbers that I talked about. One is the triple digit growth in Cosmos DB, and triple digit growth in Container App Services. You take those two things, and you say, what are people doing? People are writing applications at a completely different frontier of efficiency, which is a cloud-native, serverless, container-based types of applications.</blockquote><blockquote>And so, to me, that&#39;s another way for you to make sure that your IT spend goes a long way in a time like this.</blockquote><blockquote><b>BRENT THILL, Jefferies:</b>Amy, great to hear the double-digit guidance. I guess many are asking<b>are you embedding a worsening macroenvironment or a similar environment that we&#39;re in to get to that type of growth?</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>AMY HOOD:</b>Thanks, Brent.<b>As I said, it&#39;s trying to take into account the current macroenvironment.</b>And as I said, I took what we saw in June, applied it as best we thought we could through the course of the fiscal year. And if you think about how the… and if you try to look over the course of the year with some of my comments, you&#39;d say, okay, in H1 vs. H2, I would point out three things that changed a bit over the course of that time.</blockquote><blockquote>First, of course, if we&#39;re talking about USD, it would be FX. It&#39;s a bigger headwind in H1; it&#39;s less of a headwind in H2. The second thing I would point to would be OpEx. As we&#39;ve talked about in H1, we&#39;ve obviously added .2% headcount this quarter. We still have 11,000 hires that we have started in Q1. We&#39;ve still got Nuance and Xandr in acquisitions, and we anniversary, a lot of that as we focus our hiring and focus on the productivity of all the hiring we&#39;ve done over the past year, and then the OEM comparables obviously get a lot different when you get from H1 into H2. And so, as you&#39;re trying to think about the shape, and how did I consider it, I sort of took those things into account, thought about the trends we&#39;ve been seeing in June and applied them as best we can.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Microsoft Q4-FY2022 Earnings Call Transcript</blockquote><p>While we might very well be in a recession already, enterprise spending is generally the last shoe to drop in a cycle, and we have not seen any signs of that so far. The FED is tightening into a slowing economy due to red-hot inflation; however, the probability of a recession is rising rapidly. This is why I fear that Microsoft may fail to meet its FY2023 guidance. I may be wrong here, but it is pretty clear that Microsoft&#39;s business could come under pressure if the macro worsens from here, which is very likely to happen.</p><p>Microsoft&#39;s balance sheet is truly a fortress with ~$55B of net cash; however, things may change quickly if the $68.7B deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) goes through in the next 9-12 months (as per timeline). After this deal closes, Microsoft would still have ~$35-40B in cash (negative net cash, unless the company reduces its capital return program). And this cash position, combined with free cash flow generation, make Microsoft&#39;s dividend safe. However, if operating margins were to decline a lot, we may see a temporary suspension of Microsoft&#39;s stock buyback program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1815a464e327b1ed52ae0a6187a0c010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Overall, Microsoft is a fantastic company, and the fact that it is growing at this scale is truly astounding. With that said, Microsoft&#39;s business fundamentals are deteriorating - slowing revenue growth, flattening operating margins, and a worsening balance sheet. Considering all of this information, let&#39;s evaluate Microsoft&#39;s absolute fair value and 5-yr expected returns.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p><p>The exercise starts with simple data collection for inputs such as stock price, TTM revenue, and share count. To approximate the future free cash flows for Microsoft, I have used a two-step growth model: 10% CAGR growth for the first five years, followed by terminal growth of 3% per year.</p><p>As you know, Microsoft is highly profitable, with operating margins consistently above 30% over the years, and hence, assuming a 30% optimized FCF margin at maturity is quite reasonable in my view. Despite Microsoft spending big on Activision, I think the tech giant will persist with its shareholder-friendly capital return policies.</p><p>Lastly, I used a 10% discount rate (required IRR) for Microsoft, which happens to be the next best alternative (S&amp;P 500&#39;s historical return) for long-term investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0470579af9dcb3b1c3c3b2d8e3aff4a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TQI Valuation Model (Author)</p><p>According to our valuation model, Microsoft&#39;s fair value is ~$156.27 per share (or $1.17T). With the stock trading at ~$252 per share, I think it is still trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value.</p><p>Predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to stay depressed, higher equity multiples would stay here. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. Since Microsoft&#39;s scale and quality of business deserves a premium, I assigned a base case exit P/FCF multiple of ~25x.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf57982886a90b915f9411d20ae90c46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TQI Valuation Model (Author)</p><p>By 2027, Microsoft could grow from ~$252 to ~$384 at a CAGR of 8.8%. Since Microsoft&#39;s expected returns fall short of our required IRR of 10%, it is not a buy. However, long-term investors who are willing to accept single-digit returns in exchange for greater stability (lower volatility) can continue to hold the stock.</p><p>Remember, the intrinsic value and price targets we determined in this exercise are approximations of my expectations for Microsoft&#39;s business, which may differ materially in reality down the line. The purpose of performing this exercise is not to nail down the precise valuation of a business; it is to generate a good approximation of what a business can do for us. If we find that the current odds are favorable for long-term investors (us) even with conservative assumptions [&amp; margin of safety], then and only then, we take a long position!</p><p>As an analyst and an investor, I always strive to generate the best possible approximation for all companies under research. Despite all the due diligence I perform, I could be wrong, and this is why I always try to buy stocks with a margin of safety (at a discount to intrinsic value).</p><p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p>Despite being down more than ~28% from its 2021 highs, Microsoft&#39;s stock continues to trade at a steep premium to its intrinsic value. With revenue and operating income growth slowing down in the face of a potential economic recession, Microsoft looks ripe for further normalization in trading multiples.</p><p>Another 12% price decline and Microsoft would be trading at multiples last seen during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. However, a mover of this magnitude may not be enough, as inflation remains red hot, and the FED continues tightening its monetary policy despite the rising likelihood of an economic recession. As we saw today, Microsoft is not immune to macro, and any downward earnings revisions or guidance cuts could lead to a big sell-off in Microsoft&#39;s stock. On an absolute value basis, I believe that Microsoft is worth ~$156.27 per share, which means there may be more pain to come for MSFT shareholders. An old adage in investing goes like this - &#34;Don&#39;t Fight The Fed&#34; - and this quote is apt for today&#39;s market conditions. With important insiders also selling shares of Microsoft, I find it really, really hard to justify a new purchase at these elevated multiples. That said, long-term DGI investors could continue to &#39;Hold&#39; at this price. If Microsoft gets down to ~20x P/E, I will look to add more shares at that time.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Microsoft a &#39;Neutral / Avoid&#39; at $252.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below or DM me.</p><p>In addition to today&#39;s discussion, members at my marketplace service received TQI&#39;s Quantamental analysis, capital allocation plan, and risk management strategy for Microsoft [along with a special merger arbitrage trade idea].</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.Rising interest rates and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151063859","content_text":"SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are set to pressure corporate earnings, and while Microsoft's numbers might hold up better than most peers, it is not immune to the economy.In recent weeks, Microsoft's insiders (including the CEO & CFO) have been cashing out of the stock in a big way. Is it time for retail investors to sell too?While Microsoft is a great company, its premium valuation is a recipe for single-digit returns over the next five years.For investors comfortable with mid-single digit returns in exchange for greater stability, holding MSFT at current levels is ok (but far from ideal). I rate MSFT 'Neutral' at $252 per share.IntroductionOn Tuesday, Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock got hammered down along with broader markets [S&P 500 down ~4%, Nasdaq-100 down 5%+] on concerns regarding a hotter-than-expected CPI print (8.3% in August 2022), and more so due to rising expectations of a ~75-100 bps rate hike from the FED at its September meeting next week.FinvizCNBCAfter this latest price drop, Microsoft is staring at the prospect of retesting its 52-week lows of ~$240, last seen in June 2022. In my recent notes on Microsoft, I have rated the stock 'Neutral / Avoid', citing the sheer lack of risk premium. Furthermore, we have discussed the potential of a ~30-50% decline in Microsoft's stock due to an inevitable normalization of trading multiples, given the current macroeconomic environment.In today's note, I would like to draw your attention to the ongoing insider selling, rising macro risk, worsening business fundamentals, and Microsoft's excessive absolute valuation.Insiders Are Selling Hand Over FistBack in November 2021, Satya Nadella (Microsoft's CEO) sold roughly half of his Microsoft shares for around ~$340, which as of today, looks like him nailing the exact top on the stock.NasdaqAnd then, since late August, Satya has been at it again, selling ~167K shares [disposing of all of his latest stock grants and some additional shares]. Moreover, Amy Hood (Microsoft's CFO) joined in the fun last week and sold many of her shares, cashing out millions of dollars.NasdaqWith C-suite executives cashing out, it is fair to ask, \"Is it time for retail investors to get out of Microsoft?\" Let's find out.Where Do We Stand And How Much Lower Could MSFT Go From Here?After fading its latest rally, Microsoft's stock is hovering right above its June lows of ~$240 per share. Over the last year or so, Microsoft's trading multiples have been normalizing. With a P/E ratio of ~26x, Microsoft stock is far from cheap, especially because in a high-inflation environment, index multiples tend to go far lower than historical P/E averages of 15-20x. Even if Microsoft were to simply go down to 20x P/E, that would mean a 25-30% correction in the stock (& that is only mean reversion).YChartsFurthermore, if Microsoft's earnings moderate over the next few quarters like they generally do at this stage of the cycle for technology companies, its stock may have much more downside risk than what has been priced at this moment. During the 2007-09 recession, Microsoft's FCF yield rose to ~11%, and if we were to end up going that high, the stock would probably need to fall by more than 50%.YChartsComparing Microsoft's free cash flow yield (of 3.43%) with treasury rates (>3.5%), you can easily see the lack of risk premium attached to Microsoft's stock, i.e., the market is telling us that Microsoft is safer than treasuries. While this may be true to some extent, Microsoft's business is not immune from broader macro, and it certainly doesn't have the liberty of printing money.Treasury Rates on 13th September 2022 (CNBC)Persistent inflation, surging interest rates, and a potential economic recession are set to bring several headwinds for Microsoft, and the stock may continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. Let's discuss some business fundamentals of Microsoft to ensure we are on the same page here.Business Fundamentals Are DeterioratingMicrosoft's latest quarterly results met street expectations. Since these numbers have been widely discussed, we won't explore them today. Rather, I think we should look at the bigger picture by zooming out a little. In Q4 FY22, Microsoft's revenue growth rate continued decelerating, with operating margins also decreasing.YChartsFor FY-23, Microsoft's management expects double-digit growth in revenues and operating income [despite operating margins projected to remain flat]. While this guidance seemed to have buoyed analysts and investors alike [with MSFT's stock rocketing up to $290 per share], I don't think these numbers would be achieved in a recession [that's looking likelier by the day]. Back in 2007-09 (during the global financial crisis), Microsoft's revenues and operating margins declined significantly, which shows that Microsoft is not immune to the economy.Microsoft FY2023 OutlookMicrosoft FY2023 OutlookDuring Microsoft's Q4-FY2022 earnings call, the company's CEO and CFO made it clear that the tech giant is not immune to the macroeconomic environment and that its FY2023 guidance was based on the current macro environment. Here's an excerpt from the latest earnings call transcript (the must-read parts are highlighted in bold):MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein:Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter. I'd like to follow up a little bit on that.With all the concerns about macro recession, everyone's trying to understand how cloud, and from Microsoft's case more specifically, IaaS, PaaS operates in a slowdown recession. How do you think about Azure's resiliency? How do you think about Azure's exposure to advertising business, consumer Internet and SMB if we do see a real recession?Thank you.SATYA NADELLA:Yeah, maybe I'll start, and Amy, feel free to add.I mean, overall, we're not immune to what's happening in the macro broadly, right, to Keith's question and your question Mark. I think I'd say I'd start there, because whether it's on the demand side with consumers or SMBs, I think Amy in her remarks talked about some of that, even in our results in the quarter. But what's happening with it in Azure, though, is in some sense, businesses trying to deal with the overall macroeconomic situation and trying to make sure that they can do more with less.For example, moving to the cloud is the best way to shape your spend with demand uncertainty, right, because in fact, if anything, one of the things that we're seeing is an increased shift towards the cloud, and then of course, optimizing your bill. We are incenting even our own field to ensure that the bills for our customers come down. And that, in fact, even shows up in some of the volatility in our Azure numbers, because that's one of the big benefits of the public cloud. And that's why I think, coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner, because it does act as that deflationary force.So, that's sort of what we are seeing in the Azure numbers. We will be exposed to consumer driven businesses and SMBs, but at some level, our strength as a company is much stronger in the core commercial. So, I think that will do fine there.The other one is also people building new applications that are completely new frontier. I mean, there are two numbers that I talked about. One is the triple digit growth in Cosmos DB, and triple digit growth in Container App Services. You take those two things, and you say, what are people doing? People are writing applications at a completely different frontier of efficiency, which is a cloud-native, serverless, container-based types of applications.And so, to me, that's another way for you to make sure that your IT spend goes a long way in a time like this.BRENT THILL, Jefferies:Amy, great to hear the double-digit guidance. I guess many are askingare you embedding a worsening macroenvironment or a similar environment that we're in to get to that type of growth?AMY HOOD:Thanks, Brent.As I said, it's trying to take into account the current macroenvironment.And as I said, I took what we saw in June, applied it as best we thought we could through the course of the fiscal year. And if you think about how the… and if you try to look over the course of the year with some of my comments, you'd say, okay, in H1 vs. H2, I would point out three things that changed a bit over the course of that time.First, of course, if we're talking about USD, it would be FX. It's a bigger headwind in H1; it's less of a headwind in H2. The second thing I would point to would be OpEx. As we've talked about in H1, we've obviously added .2% headcount this quarter. We still have 11,000 hires that we have started in Q1. We've still got Nuance and Xandr in acquisitions, and we anniversary, a lot of that as we focus our hiring and focus on the productivity of all the hiring we've done over the past year, and then the OEM comparables obviously get a lot different when you get from H1 into H2. And so, as you're trying to think about the shape, and how did I consider it, I sort of took those things into account, thought about the trends we've been seeing in June and applied them as best we can.Source:Microsoft Q4-FY2022 Earnings Call TranscriptWhile we might very well be in a recession already, enterprise spending is generally the last shoe to drop in a cycle, and we have not seen any signs of that so far. The FED is tightening into a slowing economy due to red-hot inflation; however, the probability of a recession is rising rapidly. This is why I fear that Microsoft may fail to meet its FY2023 guidance. I may be wrong here, but it is pretty clear that Microsoft's business could come under pressure if the macro worsens from here, which is very likely to happen.Microsoft's balance sheet is truly a fortress with ~$55B of net cash; however, things may change quickly if the $68.7B deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) goes through in the next 9-12 months (as per timeline). After this deal closes, Microsoft would still have ~$35-40B in cash (negative net cash, unless the company reduces its capital return program). And this cash position, combined with free cash flow generation, make Microsoft's dividend safe. However, if operating margins were to decline a lot, we may see a temporary suspension of Microsoft's stock buyback program.YChartsOverall, Microsoft is a fantastic company, and the fact that it is growing at this scale is truly astounding. With that said, Microsoft's business fundamentals are deteriorating - slowing revenue growth, flattening operating margins, and a worsening balance sheet. Considering all of this information, let's evaluate Microsoft's absolute fair value and 5-yr expected returns.Microsoft's Fair Value And Expected ReturnsThe exercise starts with simple data collection for inputs such as stock price, TTM revenue, and share count. To approximate the future free cash flows for Microsoft, I have used a two-step growth model: 10% CAGR growth for the first five years, followed by terminal growth of 3% per year.As you know, Microsoft is highly profitable, with operating margins consistently above 30% over the years, and hence, assuming a 30% optimized FCF margin at maturity is quite reasonable in my view. Despite Microsoft spending big on Activision, I think the tech giant will persist with its shareholder-friendly capital return policies.Lastly, I used a 10% discount rate (required IRR) for Microsoft, which happens to be the next best alternative (S&P 500's historical return) for long-term investors.TQI Valuation Model (Author)According to our valuation model, Microsoft's fair value is ~$156.27 per share (or $1.17T). With the stock trading at ~$252 per share, I think it is still trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value.Predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to stay depressed, higher equity multiples would stay here. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. Since Microsoft's scale and quality of business deserves a premium, I assigned a base case exit P/FCF multiple of ~25x.TQI Valuation Model (Author)By 2027, Microsoft could grow from ~$252 to ~$384 at a CAGR of 8.8%. Since Microsoft's expected returns fall short of our required IRR of 10%, it is not a buy. However, long-term investors who are willing to accept single-digit returns in exchange for greater stability (lower volatility) can continue to hold the stock.Remember, the intrinsic value and price targets we determined in this exercise are approximations of my expectations for Microsoft's business, which may differ materially in reality down the line. The purpose of performing this exercise is not to nail down the precise valuation of a business; it is to generate a good approximation of what a business can do for us. If we find that the current odds are favorable for long-term investors (us) even with conservative assumptions [& margin of safety], then and only then, we take a long position!As an analyst and an investor, I always strive to generate the best possible approximation for all companies under research. Despite all the due diligence I perform, I could be wrong, and this is why I always try to buy stocks with a margin of safety (at a discount to intrinsic value).Concluding ThoughtsDespite being down more than ~28% from its 2021 highs, Microsoft's stock continues to trade at a steep premium to its intrinsic value. With revenue and operating income growth slowing down in the face of a potential economic recession, Microsoft looks ripe for further normalization in trading multiples.Another 12% price decline and Microsoft would be trading at multiples last seen during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. However, a mover of this magnitude may not be enough, as inflation remains red hot, and the FED continues tightening its monetary policy despite the rising likelihood of an economic recession. As we saw today, Microsoft is not immune to macro, and any downward earnings revisions or guidance cuts could lead to a big sell-off in Microsoft's stock. On an absolute value basis, I believe that Microsoft is worth ~$156.27 per share, which means there may be more pain to come for MSFT shareholders. An old adage in investing goes like this - \"Don't Fight The Fed\" - and this quote is apt for today's market conditions. With important insiders also selling shares of Microsoft, I find it really, really hard to justify a new purchase at these elevated multiples. That said, long-term DGI investors could continue to 'Hold' at this price. If Microsoft gets down to ~20x P/E, I will look to add more shares at that time.Key Takeaway: I rate Microsoft a 'Neutral / Avoid' at $252.Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below or DM me.In addition to today's discussion, members at my marketplace service received TQI's Quantamental analysis, capital allocation plan, and risk management strategy for Microsoft [along with a special merger arbitrage trade idea].","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934216076,"gmtCreate":1663254018095,"gmtModify":1676537237707,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934216076","repostId":"1110863431","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110863431","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663252959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110863431?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 22:42","market":"other","language":"en","title":"This Week in Crypto: Inflation Frustrates Market Attempts to Advance Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110863431","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsFresh U.S. inflation data triggered sharp price declines across the cryptocurrency l","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsFresh U.S. inflation data triggered sharp price declines across the cryptocurrency landscape, forcing major cryptos to give back much of their earlier weekly gains. Besides a handful ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/this-week-in-crypto-inflation-frustrates-market-attempts-to-advance-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Week in Crypto: Inflation Frustrates Market Attempts to Advance Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Week in Crypto: Inflation Frustrates Market Attempts to Advance Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 22:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/this-week-in-crypto-inflation-frustrates-market-attempts-to-advance-higher><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsFresh U.S. inflation data triggered sharp price declines across the cryptocurrency landscape, forcing major cryptos to give back much of their earlier weekly gains. Besides a handful ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/this-week-in-crypto-inflation-frustrates-market-attempts-to-advance-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/this-week-in-crypto-inflation-frustrates-market-attempts-to-advance-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110863431","content_text":"Story HighlightsFresh U.S. inflation data triggered sharp price declines across the cryptocurrency landscape, forcing major cryptos to give back much of their earlier weekly gains. Besides a handful of altcoins that gained ground, most tokens are trading flat week-over-week.Bitcoin Stuck at $20,000After dropping to $18,700 last week, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) gained roughly 4.40% over the past seven sessions. The flagship cryptocurrency is currently facing significant resistance, trading just a few dollars above the $20,000 mark after rising to just shy of $23,000.Despite an impressive comeback at the beginning of the week, BTC’s value started dropping after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed annualized inflation of 8.30% through August. While this rate came in merely 0.20% above estimates, BTC reacted with a rapid reversal lower.In the meantime, BTC is treading water above the critical $20,000 psychological level. However, its market capitalization and dominance relative to other cryptocurrencies have experienced considerable setbacks this week. Per the weekly on-chain report from Coinglass, more than $88 million of BTC liquidations across exchanges this week contributed further to the decline in BTC’s value.Altcoins Mostly Unchanged after a Rollercoaster WeekAfter weeks of anticipation, the Ethereum Merge was completed in the early hours of September 15, helping Ethereum (ETH-USD) finalize its transition to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism from Proof-of-Work (PoW). Although ETH climbed throughout the week, its price was also sensitive to the inflation data, tumbling to a modest week-over-week loss of 2.70%.Out of the major altcoins, Solana (SOL) was a stronger performer, rising 3.00% from its prior week’s losses. This value appreciation comes at the heels of Helium Network expressing its intent to merge with the Solana blockchain. Other large-cap altcoins like Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Polygon (MATIC) registered minimal gains or losses over the last seven sessions.The week’s biggest gainers were Cosmos (ATOM) and ApeCoin (APE). While much of the market remained rangebound, ATOM soared 10.00% this week to its highest point in four months. ATOM is trending within the $14.00-$15.00 range following a significant uptick in on-chain activity on the Cosmos blockchain. Another catalyst behind ATOM’s momentum was the release of the Cosmos SDK version 0.46, delivering upgrades to several modules and features.ApeCoin (APE) added nearly 13.00% following project-related news shared by the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) and the Ape Foundation. These developments, alongside a proposal for a new election process for the project’s governing decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), sparked a fresh rally in APE.Terra’s Comeback Comes to a HaltAfter last week’s massive surge, Terra Classic (LUNC) holders received a major shock after the token tumbled nearly 52.30% over the last seven days. As the news of a Korean court issuing arrest warrants for Terra’s founder Do Kwon and five other individuals went viral, the price of LUNC sold off fast and hard.Per reports, arrest warrants were issued for these individuals due to their alleged violation of capital market rules. The Terra implosion that unfolded in May this year caused a crypto market crash, with more than 200,000 investors from Korea alone losing billions of dollars.This new revelation heaped on more negative pressure following earlier news of South Korean prosecutors launching another investigation into Terraform Labs to determine whether the company’s native tokens fell under the “securities” category.Google Cloud Supports Web3, Russia Considers Crypto, and MoreAs Web3 continues to attract significant funding and interest, Binance’s smart contract blockchain platform BNB Chain has unveiled a tie-up with Google Cloud to assist blockchain and Web3 startups. Through this partnership, all projects building atop BNB Chain will gain access to Google Cloud’s open-source infrastructure.More than 1,300 BNB-based dApps and protocols, ranging from DeFi, NFTs, Metaverse, and P2E games, can leverage Google Cloud for data encryption and on-demand on-chain data analysis, among other benefits.Contending with sanctions and economic blockades, Russia is growing increasingly serious about the idea of enabling crypto as a medium for cross-border payments. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin sent out an official instruction to the Duma and other state authorities to work on developing coordinated guidelines and policies to regulate cryptocurrency in the country by December 19, 2022.This development follows Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev’s confirmation that the Bank of Russia has agreed to legalize crypto for cross-border payments.Finally, in blockchain adoption news, Securitize Capital is preparing to tokenize KKR’s Health Care Strategic Growth Fund II on the Avalanche blockchain to promote greater accessibility. This new approach will enable investors to own on-chain representations of KKR’s healthcare-focused fund that invests across 23 North American and European pharmaceutical companies. KKR is one of the largest global investment companies, overseeing more than $491 billion in assets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907101536,"gmtCreate":1660157354928,"gmtModify":1703478449298,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you are amazing!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you are amazing!&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you are 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done!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037161854","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034713906,"gmtCreate":1647962393316,"gmtModify":1676534285720,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>keep going!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>keep going!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$keep going!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034713906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034610061,"gmtCreate":1647873195925,"gmtModify":1676534274304,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>go go go!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>go go go!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$go go go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034610061","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9038370660,"gmtCreate":1646751925151,"gmtModify":1676534158245,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9038370660","repostId":"1124847682","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033069622,"gmtCreate":1646154636644,"gmtModify":1676534096690,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my hope still is you!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my hope still is you!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my hope still is you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033069622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039125442,"gmtCreate":1645969331449,"gmtModify":1676534078341,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Done","listText":"Done","text":"Done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039125442","repostId":"1125580913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125580913","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645926503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1125580913?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-27 09:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett Full Annual Letter：Apple is One of ‘Four Giants’ Driving the Conglomerate’s Value","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125580913","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday. The 91-yea","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday. The 91-year-old investing legend has been publishing the letter for over six decades and it has become required reading for investors around the world.</p><p>Warren Buffett said he now considers tech giant Apple as one of the four pillars driving Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate of mostly old-economy businesses he’s assembled over the last five decades.</p><p>In his annual letter to shareholders released on Saturday, the 91-year-old investing legend listed Apple under the heading “Our Four Giants” and even called the company the second-most important after Berkshire’s cluster of insurers, thanks to its chief executive.</p><p>“Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well,” the letter stated.</p><p>Buffett made clear he is a fan of Cook’s stock repurchase strategy, and how it gives the conglomerate increased ownership of each dollar of the iPhone maker’s earnings without the investor having to lift a finger.</p><p>“Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier,” Buffett said in the letter. “That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.”</p><p>Berkshire began buying Apple stock in 2016 under the influence of Buffett’s investing deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. By mid-2018, the conglomerate accumulated 5% ownership of the iPhone maker, a stake that cost $36 billion. Today, the Apple investment is now worth more than $160 billion, taking up 40% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio.</p><p>“It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our ‘share’ of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud,” Buffett said.</p><p>Berkshire is Apple’s largest shareholder, outside of index and exchange-traded fund providers.</p><p>Buffett also credited his railroad business BNSF and energy segment BHE as two other giants of the conglomerate, which both registered record earnings in 2021.</p><p>“BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire,” Buffett said. “BHE has become a utility powerhouse and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.”</p><p><b>Read the full letter here：</b></p><p>To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:</p><p>Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing a portion of your savings. We are honored by your trust.</p><p>Our position carries with it the responsibility to report to you what we would like to know if we were the absentee owner and you were the manager. We enjoy communicating directly with you through this annual letter, and through the annual meeting as well.</p><p>Our policy is to treat all shareholders equally. Therefore, we do not hold discussions with analysts nor large institutions. Whenever possible, also, we release important communications on Saturday mornings in order to maximize the time for shareholders and the media to absorb the news before markets open on Monday.</p><p>A wealth of Berkshire facts and figures are set forth in the annual 10-K that the company regularly files with the S.E.C. and that we reproduce on pages K-1 – K-119. Some shareholders will find this detail engrossing; others will simply prefer to learn what Charlie and I believe is new or interesting at Berkshire.</p><p>Alas, there was little action of that sort in 2021. We did, though, make reasonable progress in increasing the intrinsic value of your shares. That task has been my primary duty for 57 years. And it will continue to be.</p><p><b>What You Own</b></p><p>Berkshire owns a wide variety of businesses, some in their entirety, some only in part. The second group largely consists of marketable common stocks of major American companies. Additionally, we own a few non-U.S. equities and participate in several joint ventures or other collaborative activities.</p><p>Whatever our form of ownership, our goal is to have meaningful investments in businesses with both durable economic advantages and a first-class CEO. Please note particularly that we own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.</p><p>I make many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses includes some enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many others that enjoy good economic characteristics, and a few that are marginal. One advantage of our common-stock segment is that – on occasion – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. That shooting-fish-in-a-barrel experience is very rare in negotiated transactions and never occurs en masse. It is also far easier to exit from a mistake when it has been made in the marketable arena.</p><h2><b>Surprise, Surprise</b></h2><p>Here are a few items about your company that often surprise even seasoned investors:</p><p>• Many people perceive Berkshire as a large and somewhat strange collection of financial assets. In truth, Berkshire owns and operates more U.S.-based “infrastructure” assets – classified on our balance sheet as property, plant and equipment – than are owned and operated by any other American corporation. That supremacy has never been our goal. It has, however, become a fact.</p><p>At yearend, those domestic infrastructure assets were carried on Berkshire’s balance sheet at $158 billion. That number increased last year and will continue to increase. Berkshire always will be building.</p><p>• Every year, your company makes substantial federal income tax payments. In 2021, for example, we paid</p><p>$3.3 billion while the U.S. Treasury reported total corporate income-tax receipts of $402 billion. Additionally, Berkshire pays substantial state and foreign taxes. “I gave at the office” is an unassailable assertion when made by Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Berkshire’s history vividly illustrates the invisible and often unrecognized financial partnership between  government and American businesses. Our tale begins early in 1955, when Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing agreed to merge their businesses. In their requests for shareholder approval, these venerable New England textile companies expressed high hopes for the combination.</p><p></p><p>The Hathaway solicitation, for example, assured its shareholders that “The combination of the resources and managements will result in one of the strongest and most efficient organizations in the textile industry.” That upbeat view was endorsed by the company’s advisor, Lehman Brothers (yes, that Lehman Brothers).</p><p>I’m sure it was a joyous day in both Fall River (Berkshire) and New Bedford (Hathaway) when the union was consummated. After the bands stopped playing and the bankers went home, however, the shareholders reaped a disaster.</p><p>In the nine years following the merger, Berkshire’s owners watched the company’s net worth crater from</p><p>$51.4 million to $22.1 million. In part, this decline was caused by stock repurchases, ill-advised dividends and plant shutdowns. But nine years of effort by many thousands of employees delivered an operating loss as well. Berkshire’s struggles were not unusual: The New England textile industry had silently entered an extended and non-reversible death march.</p><p>During the nine post-merger years, the U.S. Treasury suffered as well from Berkshire’s troubles. All told, the company paid the government only $337,359 in income tax during that period – a pathetic $100 per day.</p><p>Early in 1965, things changed. Berkshire installed new management that redeployed available cash and steered essentially all earnings into a variety of good businesses, most of which remained good through the years. Coupling reinvestment of earnings with the power of compounding worked its magic, and shareholders prospered.</p><p>Berkshire’s owners, it should be noted, were not the only beneficiary of that course correction. Their “silent partner,” the U.S. Treasury, proceeded to collect many tens of billions of dollars from the company in income tax payments. Remember the $100 daily? Now, Berkshire pays roughly $9 million daily to the Treasury.</p><p>In fairness to our governmental partner, our shareholders should acknowledge – indeed trumpet – the fact that Berkshire’s prosperity has been fostered mightily because the company has operated in America. Our country would have done splendidly in the years since 1965 without Berkshire. Absent our American home, however, Berkshire would never have come close to becoming what it is today. When you see the flag, say thanks.</p><p>• From an $8.6 million purchase of National Indemnity in 1967, Berkshire has become the world leader in insurance “float” – money we hold and can invest but that does not belong to us. Including a relatively small sum derived from life insurance, Berkshire’s total float has grown from $19 million when we entered the insurance business to $147 billion.</p><p>So far, this float has cost us less than nothing. Though we have experienced a number of years when insurance losses combined with operating expenses exceeded premiums, overall we have earned a modest 55-year profit from the underwriting activities that generated our float.</p><p>Of equal importance, float is very sticky. Funds attributable to our insurance operations come and go daily, but their aggregate total is immune from precipitous decline. When it comes to investing float, we can therefore think long-term.</p><p>If you are not already familiar with the concept of float, I refer you to a long explanation on page A-5. To my surprise, our float increased $9 billion last year, a buildup of value that is important to Berkshire owners though is not reflected in our GAAP (“generally-accepted accounting principles”) presentation of earnings and net worth.</p><p>Much of our huge value creation in insurance is attributable to Berkshire’s good luck in my 1986 hiring of Ajit Jain. We first met on a Saturday morning, and I quickly asked Ajit what his insurance experience had been. He replied, “None.”</p><p>I said, “Nobody’s perfect,” and hired him. That was my lucky day: Ajit actually was as perfect a choice as could have been made. Better yet, he continues to be – 35 years later.</p><p>One final thought about insurance: I believe that it is likely – but far from assured – that Berkshire’s float can be maintained without our incurring a long-term underwriting loss. I am certain, however, that there will be some years when we experience such losses, perhaps involving very large sums.</p><p>Berkshire is constructed to handle catastrophic events as no other insurer – and that priority will remain long after Charlie and I are gone.</p><h2>Our Four Giants</h2><p>Through Berkshire, our shareholders own many dozens of businesses. Some of these, in turn, have a collection of subsidiaries of their own. For example, Marmon has more than 100 individual business operations, ranging from the leasing of railroad cars to the manufacture of medical devices.</p><p>• Nevertheless, operations of our “Big Four” companies account for a very large chunk of Berkshire’s value. Leading this list is our cluster of insurers. Berkshire effectively owns 100% of this group, whose massive float value we earlier described. The invested assets of these insurers are further enlarged by the extraordinary amount of capital we invest to back up their promises.</p><p>The insurance business is made to order for Berkshire. The product will never be obsolete, and sales volume will generally increase along with both economic growth and inflation. Also, integrity and capital will forever be important. Our company can and will behave well.</p><p>There are, of course, other insurers with excellent business models and prospects. Replication of Berkshire’s operation, however, would be almost impossible.</p><p>• Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier. That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.</p><p>It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our “share” of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud. Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well.</p><p>• BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire. If the many essential products BNSF carries were instead hauled by truck, America’s carbon emissions would soar.</p><p>Your railroad had record earnings of $6 billion in 2021. Here, it should be noted, we are talking about the old-fashioned sort of earnings that we favor: a figure calculated after interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and all forms of compensation. (Our definition suggests a warning: Deceptive “adjustments” to earnings – to use a polite description – have become both more frequent and more fanciful as stocks have risen. Speaking less politely, I would say that bull markets breed bloviated bull )</p><p>BNSF trains traveled 143 million miles last year and carried 535 million tons of cargo. Both accomplishments far exceed those of any other American carrier. You can be proud of your railroad.</p><p>• BHE, our final Giant, earned a record $4 billion in 2021. That’s up more than 30-fold from the $122 million earned in 2000, the year that Berkshire first purchased a BHE stake. Now, Berkshire owns 91.1% of the company.</p><p>BHE’s record of societal accomplishment is as remarkable as its financial performance. The company had no wind or solar generation in 2000. It was then regarded simply as a relatively new and minor participant in the huge electric utility industry. Subsequently, under David Sokol’s and Greg Abel’s leadership, BHE has become a utility powerhouse (no groaning, please) and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.</p><p>Greg’s report on these accomplishments appears on pages A-3 and A-4. The profile you will find there is not in any way one of those currently-fashionable “green-washing” stories. BHE has been faithfully detailing its plans and performance in renewables and transmissions every year since 2007.</p><p>To further review this information, visit BHE’s website at brkenergy.com. There, you will see that the company has long been making climate-conscious moves that soak up all of its earnings. More opportunities lie ahead. BHE has the management, the experience, the capital and the appetite for the huge power projects that our country needs.</p><h2>Investments</h2><p>Now let’s talk about companies we don’t control, a list that again references Apple. Below we list our fifteen largest equity holdings, several of which are selections of Berkshire’s two long-time investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. At yearend, this valued pair had total authority in respect to $34 billion of investments, many of which do not meet the threshold value we use in the table. Also, a significant portion of the dollars that Todd and Ted manage are lodged in various pension plans of Berkshire-owned businesses, with the assets of these plans not included in this table.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d43587e9f59c0ff76e6c04c6bf9af324\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>* This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis.</p><p>** Held by BHE; consequently, Berkshire shareholders have only a 91.1% interest in this position.</p><p>*** Includes a $10 billion investment in Occidental Petroleum, consisting of preferred stock and warrants to buy common stock, a combination now being valued at $10.7 billion.</p><p>In addition to the footnoted Occidental holding and our various common-stock positions, Berkshire also owns a 26.6% interest in Kraft Heinz (accounted for on the “equity” method, not market value, and carried at $13.1 billion) and 38.6% of Pilot Corp., a leader in travel centers that had revenues last year of $45 billion.</p><p>Since we purchased our Pilot stake in 2017, this holding has warranted “equity” accounting treatment. Early in 2023, Berkshire will purchase an additional interest in Pilot that will raise our ownership to 80% and lead to our fully consolidating Pilot’s earnings, assets and liabilities in our financial statements.</p><h2>U.S. Treasury Bills</h2><p>Berkshire’s balance sheet includes $144 billion of cash and cash equivalents (excluding the holdings of BNSF and BHE). Of this sum, $120 billion is held in U.S. Treasury bills, all maturing in less than a year. That stake leaves Berkshire financing about 12 of 1% of the publicly-held national debt.</p><p>Charlie and I have pledged that Berkshire (along with our subsidiaries other than BNSF and BHE) will always hold more than $30 billion of cash and equivalents. We want your company to be financially impregnable and never dependent on the kindness of strangers (or even that of friends). Both of us like to sleep soundly, and we want our creditors, insurance claimants and you to do so as well.</p><h2>But $144 billion?</h2><p>That imposing sum, I assure you, is not some deranged expression of patriotism. Nor have Charlie and I lost our overwhelming preference for business ownership. Indeed, I first manifested my enthusiasm for that 80 years ago, on March 11, 1942, when I purchased three shares of Cities Services preferred stock. Their cost was $114.75 and required all of my savings. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average that day closed at 99, a fact that should scream to you: Never bet against America.)</p><p>After my initial plunge, I always kept at least 80% of my net worth in equities. My favored status throughout that period was 100% – and still is. Berkshire’s current 80%-or-so position in businesses is a consequence of my failure to find entire companies or small portions thereof (that is, marketable stocks) which meet our criteria for long- term holding.</p><p>Charlie and I have endured similar cash-heavy positions from time to time in the past. These periods are never pleasant; they are also never permanent. And, fortunately, we have had a mildly attractive alternative during 2020 and 2021 for deploying capital. Read on.</p><h2>Share Repurchases</h2><p>There are three ways that we can increase the value of your investment. The first is always front and center in our minds: Increase the long-term earning power of Berkshire’s controlled businesses through internal growth or by making acquisitions. Today, internal opportunities deliver far better returns than acquisitions. The size of those opportunities, however, is small compared to Berkshire’s resources.</p><p>Our second choice is to buy non-controlling part-interests in the many good or great businesses that are publicly traded. From time to time, such possibilities are both numerous and blatantly attractive. Today, though, we find little that excites us.</p><p>That’s largely because of a truism: Long-term interest rates that are low push the prices of all productive investments upward, whether these are stocks, apartments, farms, oil wells, whatever. Other factors influence valuations as well, but interest rates will always be important.</p><p>Our final path to value creation is to repurchase Berkshire shares. Through that simple act, we increase your share of the many controlled and non-controlled businesses Berkshire owns. When the price/value equation is right, this path is the easiest and most certain way for us to increase your wealth. (Alongside the accretion of value to continuing shareholders, a couple of other parties gain: Repurchases are modestly beneficial to the seller of the repurchased shares and to society as well.)</p><p>Periodically, as alternative paths become unattractive, repurchases make good sense for Berkshire’s owners. During the past two years, we therefore repurchased 9% of the shares that were outstanding at yearend 2019 for a total cost of $51.7 billion. That expenditure left our continuing shareholders owning about 10% more of all Berkshire businesses, whether these are wholly-owned (such as BNSF and GEICO) or partly-owned (such as Coca-Cola and Moody’s).</p><p>I want to underscore that for Berkshire repurchases to make sense, our shares must offer appropriate value. We don’t want to overpay for the shares of other companies, and it would be value-destroying if we were to overpay when we are buying Berkshire. As of February 23, 2022, since yearend we repurchased additional shares at a cost of $1.2 billion. Our appetite remains large but will always remain price-dependent.</p><p>It should be noted that Berkshire’s buyback opportunities are limited because of its high-class investor base. If our shares were heavily held by short-term speculators, both price volatility and transaction volumes would materially increase. That kind of reshaping would offer us far greater opportunities for creating value by making repurchases. Nevertheless, Charlie and I far prefer the owners we have, even though their admirable buy-and-keep attitudes limit the extent to which long-term shareholders can profit from opportunistic repurchases.</p><p>Finally, one easily-overlooked value calculation specific to Berkshire: As we’ve discussed, insurance “float” of the right sort is of great value to us. As it happens, repurchases automatically increase the amount of “float” per share. That figure has increased during the past two years by 25% – going from $79,387 per “A” share to $99,497, a meaningful gain that, as noted, owes some thanks to repurchases.</p><h2>A Wonderful Man and a Wonderful Business</h2><p>Last year, Paul Andrews died. Paul was the founder and CEO of TTI, a Fort Worth-based subsidiary of Berkshire. Throughout his life – in both his business and his personal pursuits – Paul quietly displayed all the qualities that Charlie and I admire. His story should be told.</p><p>In 1971, Paul was working as a purchasing agent for General Dynamics when the roof fell in. After losing a huge defense contract, the company fired thousands of employees, including Paul.</p><p>With his first child due soon, Paul decided to bet on himself, using $500 of his savings to found Tex-Tronics (later renamed TTI). The company set itself up to distribute small electronic components, and first-year sales totaled $112,000. Today, TTI markets more than one million different items with annual volume of $7.7 billion.</p><p>But back to 2006: Paul, at 63, then found himself happy with his family, his job, and his associates. But he had one nagging worry, heightened because he had recently witnessed a friend’s early death and the disastrous results that followed for that man’s family and business. What, Paul asked himself in 2006, would happen to the many people depending on him if he should unexpectedly die?</p><p>For a year, Paul wrestled with his options. Sell to a competitor? From a strictly economic viewpoint, that course made the most sense. After all, competitors could envision lucrative “synergies” – savings that would be achieved as the acquiror slashed duplicated functions at TTI.</p><p>But . . . Such a purchaser would most certainly also retain its CFO, its legal counsel, its HR unit. Their TTI counterparts would therefore be sent packing. And ugh! If a new distribution center were to be needed, the acquirer’s home city would certainly be favored over Fort Worth.</p><p>Whatever the financial benefits, Paul quickly concluded that selling to a competitor was not for him. He next considered seeking a financial buyer, a species once labeled – aptly so – a leveraged buyout firm. Paul knew, however, that such a purchaser would be focused on an “exit strategy.” And who could know what that would be? Brooding over it all, Paul found himself having no interest in handing his 35-year-old creation over to a reseller.</p><p>When Paul met me, he explained why he had eliminated these two alternatives as buyers. He then summed up his dilemma by saying – in far more tactful phrasing than this – “After a year of pondering the alternatives, I want to sell to Berkshire because you are the only guy left.” So, I made an offer and Paul said “Yes.” One meeting; one lunch; one deal.</p><p>To say we both lived happily ever after is an understatement. When Berkshire purchased TTI, the company employed 2,387. Now the number is 8,043. A large percentage of that growth took place in Fort Worth and environs. Earnings have increased 673%.</p><p>Annually, I would call Paul and tell him his salary should be substantially increased. Annually, he would tell me, “We can talk about that next year, Warren; I’m too busy now.”</p><p>When Greg Abel and I attended Paul’s memorial service, we met children, grandchildren, long-time associates (including TTI’s first employee) and John Roach, the former CEO of a Fort Worth company Berkshire had purchased in 2000. John had steered his friend Paul to Omaha, instinctively knowing we would be a match.</p><p>At the service, Greg and I heard about the multitudes of people and organizations that Paul had silently supported. The breadth of his generosity was extraordinary – geared always to improving the lives of others, particularly those in Fort Worth.</p><p>In all ways, Paul was a class act.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Good luck – occasionally extraordinary luck – has played its part at Berkshire. If Paul and I had not enjoyed a mutual friend – John Roach – TTI would not have found its home with us. But that ample serving of luck was only the beginning. TTI was soon to lead Berkshire to its most important acquisition.</p><p>Every fall, Berkshire directors gather for a presentation by a few of our executives. We sometimes choose the site based upon the location of a recent acquisition, by that means allowing directors to meet the new subsidiary’s CEO and learn more about the acquiree’s activities.</p><p>In the fall of 2009, we consequently selected Fort Worth so that we could visit TTI. At that time, BNSF, which also had Fort Worth as its hometown, was the third-largest holding among our marketable equities. Despite that large stake, I had never visited the railroad’s headquarters.</p><p>Deb Bosanek, my assistant, scheduled our board’s opening dinner for October 22. Meanwhile, I arranged to arrive earlier that day to meet with Matt Rose, CEO of BNSF, whose accomplishments I had long admired. When I made the date, I had no idea that our get-together would coincide with BNSF’s third-quarter earnings report, which was released late on the 22nd.</p><p>The market reacted badly to the railroad’s results. The Great Recession was in full force in the third quarter, and BNSF’s earnings reflected that slump. The economic outlook was also bleak, and Wall Street wasn’t feeling friendly to railroads – or much else.</p><p>On the following day, I again got together with Matt and suggested that Berkshire would offer the railroad a better long-term home than it could expect as a public company. I also told him the maximum price that Berkshire would pay.</p><p>Matt relayed the offer to his directors and advisors. Eleven busy days later, Berkshire and BNSF announced a firm deal. And here I’ll venture a rare prediction: BNSF will be a key asset for Berkshire and our country a century from now.</p><p>The BNSF acquisition would never have happened if Paul Andrews hadn’t sized up Berkshire as the right home for TTI.</p><h2>Thanks</h2><p>I taught my first investing class 70 years ago. Since then, I have enjoyed working almost every year with students of all ages, finally “retiring” from that pursuit in 2018.</p><p>Along the way, my toughest audience was my grandson’s fifth-grade class. The 11-year-olds were squirming in their seats and giving me blank stares until I mentioned Coca-Cola and its famous secret formula. Instantly, every hand went up, and I learned that “secrets” are catnip to kids.</p><p>Teaching, like writing, has helped me develop and clarify my own thoughts. Charlie calls this phenomenon the orangutan effect: If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will yourself exit thinking more clearly.</p><p>Talking to university students is far superior. I have urged that they seek employment in (1) the field and (2) with the kind of people they would select, if they had no need for money. Economic realities, I acknowledge, may interfere with that kind of search. Even so, I urge the students never to give up the quest, for when they find that sort of job, they will no longer be “working.”</p><p>Charlie and I, ourselves, followed that liberating course after a few early stumbles. We both started as part- timers at my grandfather’s grocery store, Charlie in 1940 and I in 1942. We were each assigned boring tasks and paid little, definitely not what we had in mind. Charlie later took up law, and I tried selling securities. Job satisfaction continued to elude us.</p><p>Finally, at Berkshire, we found what we love to do. With very few exceptions, we have now “worked” for many decades with people whom we like and trust. It’s a joy in life to join with managers such as Paul Andrews or the Berkshire families I told you about last year. In our home office, we employ decent and talented people – no jerks. Turnover averages, perhaps, one person per year.</p><p>I would like, however, to emphasize a further item that turns our jobs into fun and satisfaction working</p><p>for you. There is nothing more rewarding to Charlie and me than enjoying the trust of individual long-term shareholders who, for many decades, have joined us with the expectation that we would be a reliable custodian of their funds.</p><p>Obviously, we can’t select our owners, as we could do if our form of operation were a partnership. Anyone can buy shares of Berkshire today with the intention of soon reselling them. For sure, we get a few of that type of shareholder, just as we get index funds that own huge amounts of Berkshire simply because they are required to do so.</p><p>To a truly unusual degree, however, Berkshire has as owners a very large corps of individuals and families that have elected to join us with an intent approaching “til death do us part.” Often, they have trusted us with a large – some might say excessive – portion of their savings.</p><p>Berkshire, these shareholders would sometimes acknowledge, might be far from the best selection they could have made. But they would add that Berkshire would rank high among those with which they would be most comfortable. And people who are comfortable with their investments will, on average, achieve better results than those who are motivated by ever-changing headlines, chatter and promises.</p><p>Long-term individual owners are both the “partners” Charlie and I have always sought and the ones we constantly have in mind as we make decisions at Berkshire. To them we say, “It feels good to ‘work’ for you, and you have our thanks for your trust.”</p><h2>The Annual Meeting</h2><p>Clear your calendar! Berkshire will have its annual gathering of capitalists in Omaha on Friday, April 29th through Sunday, May 1st. The details regarding the weekend are laid out on pages A-1 and A-2. Omaha eagerly awaits you, as do I.</p><p>I will end this letter with a sales pitch. “Cousin” Jimmy Buffett has designed a pontoon “party” boat that is now being manufactured by Forest River, a Berkshire subsidiary. The boat will be introduced on April 29 at our Berkshire Bazaar of Bargains. And, for two days only, shareholders will be able to purchase Jimmy’s masterpiece at a 10% discount. Your bargain-hunting chairman will be buying a boat for his family’s use. Join me.</p><p>February 26, 2022</p><p>Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett Full Annual Letter：Apple is One of ‘Four Giants’ Driving the Conglomerate’s Value</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett Full Annual Letter：Apple is One of ‘Four Giants’ Driving the Conglomerate’s Value\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-27 09:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday. The 91-year-old investing legend has been publishing the letter for over six decades and it has become required reading for investors around the world.</p><p>Warren Buffett said he now considers tech giant Apple as one of the four pillars driving Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate of mostly old-economy businesses he’s assembled over the last five decades.</p><p>In his annual letter to shareholders released on Saturday, the 91-year-old investing legend listed Apple under the heading “Our Four Giants” and even called the company the second-most important after Berkshire’s cluster of insurers, thanks to its chief executive.</p><p>“Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well,” the letter stated.</p><p>Buffett made clear he is a fan of Cook’s stock repurchase strategy, and how it gives the conglomerate increased ownership of each dollar of the iPhone maker’s earnings without the investor having to lift a finger.</p><p>“Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier,” Buffett said in the letter. “That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.”</p><p>Berkshire began buying Apple stock in 2016 under the influence of Buffett’s investing deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. By mid-2018, the conglomerate accumulated 5% ownership of the iPhone maker, a stake that cost $36 billion. Today, the Apple investment is now worth more than $160 billion, taking up 40% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio.</p><p>“It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our ‘share’ of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud,” Buffett said.</p><p>Berkshire is Apple’s largest shareholder, outside of index and exchange-traded fund providers.</p><p>Buffett also credited his railroad business BNSF and energy segment BHE as two other giants of the conglomerate, which both registered record earnings in 2021.</p><p>“BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire,” Buffett said. “BHE has become a utility powerhouse and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.”</p><p><b>Read the full letter here：</b></p><p>To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:</p><p>Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing a portion of your savings. We are honored by your trust.</p><p>Our position carries with it the responsibility to report to you what we would like to know if we were the absentee owner and you were the manager. We enjoy communicating directly with you through this annual letter, and through the annual meeting as well.</p><p>Our policy is to treat all shareholders equally. Therefore, we do not hold discussions with analysts nor large institutions. Whenever possible, also, we release important communications on Saturday mornings in order to maximize the time for shareholders and the media to absorb the news before markets open on Monday.</p><p>A wealth of Berkshire facts and figures are set forth in the annual 10-K that the company regularly files with the S.E.C. and that we reproduce on pages K-1 – K-119. Some shareholders will find this detail engrossing; others will simply prefer to learn what Charlie and I believe is new or interesting at Berkshire.</p><p>Alas, there was little action of that sort in 2021. We did, though, make reasonable progress in increasing the intrinsic value of your shares. That task has been my primary duty for 57 years. And it will continue to be.</p><p><b>What You Own</b></p><p>Berkshire owns a wide variety of businesses, some in their entirety, some only in part. The second group largely consists of marketable common stocks of major American companies. Additionally, we own a few non-U.S. equities and participate in several joint ventures or other collaborative activities.</p><p>Whatever our form of ownership, our goal is to have meaningful investments in businesses with both durable economic advantages and a first-class CEO. Please note particularly that we own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.</p><p>I make many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses includes some enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many others that enjoy good economic characteristics, and a few that are marginal. One advantage of our common-stock segment is that – on occasion – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. That shooting-fish-in-a-barrel experience is very rare in negotiated transactions and never occurs en masse. It is also far easier to exit from a mistake when it has been made in the marketable arena.</p><h2><b>Surprise, Surprise</b></h2><p>Here are a few items about your company that often surprise even seasoned investors:</p><p>• Many people perceive Berkshire as a large and somewhat strange collection of financial assets. In truth, Berkshire owns and operates more U.S.-based “infrastructure” assets – classified on our balance sheet as property, plant and equipment – than are owned and operated by any other American corporation. That supremacy has never been our goal. It has, however, become a fact.</p><p>At yearend, those domestic infrastructure assets were carried on Berkshire’s balance sheet at $158 billion. That number increased last year and will continue to increase. Berkshire always will be building.</p><p>• Every year, your company makes substantial federal income tax payments. In 2021, for example, we paid</p><p>$3.3 billion while the U.S. Treasury reported total corporate income-tax receipts of $402 billion. Additionally, Berkshire pays substantial state and foreign taxes. “I gave at the office” is an unassailable assertion when made by Berkshire shareholders.</p><p>Berkshire’s history vividly illustrates the invisible and often unrecognized financial partnership between  government and American businesses. Our tale begins early in 1955, when Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing agreed to merge their businesses. In their requests for shareholder approval, these venerable New England textile companies expressed high hopes for the combination.</p><p></p><p>The Hathaway solicitation, for example, assured its shareholders that “The combination of the resources and managements will result in one of the strongest and most efficient organizations in the textile industry.” That upbeat view was endorsed by the company’s advisor, Lehman Brothers (yes, that Lehman Brothers).</p><p>I’m sure it was a joyous day in both Fall River (Berkshire) and New Bedford (Hathaway) when the union was consummated. After the bands stopped playing and the bankers went home, however, the shareholders reaped a disaster.</p><p>In the nine years following the merger, Berkshire’s owners watched the company’s net worth crater from</p><p>$51.4 million to $22.1 million. In part, this decline was caused by stock repurchases, ill-advised dividends and plant shutdowns. But nine years of effort by many thousands of employees delivered an operating loss as well. Berkshire’s struggles were not unusual: The New England textile industry had silently entered an extended and non-reversible death march.</p><p>During the nine post-merger years, the U.S. Treasury suffered as well from Berkshire’s troubles. All told, the company paid the government only $337,359 in income tax during that period – a pathetic $100 per day.</p><p>Early in 1965, things changed. Berkshire installed new management that redeployed available cash and steered essentially all earnings into a variety of good businesses, most of which remained good through the years. Coupling reinvestment of earnings with the power of compounding worked its magic, and shareholders prospered.</p><p>Berkshire’s owners, it should be noted, were not the only beneficiary of that course correction. Their “silent partner,” the U.S. Treasury, proceeded to collect many tens of billions of dollars from the company in income tax payments. Remember the $100 daily? Now, Berkshire pays roughly $9 million daily to the Treasury.</p><p>In fairness to our governmental partner, our shareholders should acknowledge – indeed trumpet – the fact that Berkshire’s prosperity has been fostered mightily because the company has operated in America. Our country would have done splendidly in the years since 1965 without Berkshire. Absent our American home, however, Berkshire would never have come close to becoming what it is today. When you see the flag, say thanks.</p><p>• From an $8.6 million purchase of National Indemnity in 1967, Berkshire has become the world leader in insurance “float” – money we hold and can invest but that does not belong to us. Including a relatively small sum derived from life insurance, Berkshire’s total float has grown from $19 million when we entered the insurance business to $147 billion.</p><p>So far, this float has cost us less than nothing. Though we have experienced a number of years when insurance losses combined with operating expenses exceeded premiums, overall we have earned a modest 55-year profit from the underwriting activities that generated our float.</p><p>Of equal importance, float is very sticky. Funds attributable to our insurance operations come and go daily, but their aggregate total is immune from precipitous decline. When it comes to investing float, we can therefore think long-term.</p><p>If you are not already familiar with the concept of float, I refer you to a long explanation on page A-5. To my surprise, our float increased $9 billion last year, a buildup of value that is important to Berkshire owners though is not reflected in our GAAP (“generally-accepted accounting principles”) presentation of earnings and net worth.</p><p>Much of our huge value creation in insurance is attributable to Berkshire’s good luck in my 1986 hiring of Ajit Jain. We first met on a Saturday morning, and I quickly asked Ajit what his insurance experience had been. He replied, “None.”</p><p>I said, “Nobody’s perfect,” and hired him. That was my lucky day: Ajit actually was as perfect a choice as could have been made. Better yet, he continues to be – 35 years later.</p><p>One final thought about insurance: I believe that it is likely – but far from assured – that Berkshire’s float can be maintained without our incurring a long-term underwriting loss. I am certain, however, that there will be some years when we experience such losses, perhaps involving very large sums.</p><p>Berkshire is constructed to handle catastrophic events as no other insurer – and that priority will remain long after Charlie and I are gone.</p><h2>Our Four Giants</h2><p>Through Berkshire, our shareholders own many dozens of businesses. Some of these, in turn, have a collection of subsidiaries of their own. For example, Marmon has more than 100 individual business operations, ranging from the leasing of railroad cars to the manufacture of medical devices.</p><p>• Nevertheless, operations of our “Big Four” companies account for a very large chunk of Berkshire’s value. Leading this list is our cluster of insurers. Berkshire effectively owns 100% of this group, whose massive float value we earlier described. The invested assets of these insurers are further enlarged by the extraordinary amount of capital we invest to back up their promises.</p><p>The insurance business is made to order for Berkshire. The product will never be obsolete, and sales volume will generally increase along with both economic growth and inflation. Also, integrity and capital will forever be important. Our company can and will behave well.</p><p>There are, of course, other insurers with excellent business models and prospects. Replication of Berkshire’s operation, however, would be almost impossible.</p><p>• Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier. That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.</p><p>It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our “share” of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud. Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well.</p><p>• BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire. If the many essential products BNSF carries were instead hauled by truck, America’s carbon emissions would soar.</p><p>Your railroad had record earnings of $6 billion in 2021. Here, it should be noted, we are talking about the old-fashioned sort of earnings that we favor: a figure calculated after interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and all forms of compensation. (Our definition suggests a warning: Deceptive “adjustments” to earnings – to use a polite description – have become both more frequent and more fanciful as stocks have risen. Speaking less politely, I would say that bull markets breed bloviated bull )</p><p>BNSF trains traveled 143 million miles last year and carried 535 million tons of cargo. Both accomplishments far exceed those of any other American carrier. You can be proud of your railroad.</p><p>• BHE, our final Giant, earned a record $4 billion in 2021. That’s up more than 30-fold from the $122 million earned in 2000, the year that Berkshire first purchased a BHE stake. Now, Berkshire owns 91.1% of the company.</p><p>BHE’s record of societal accomplishment is as remarkable as its financial performance. The company had no wind or solar generation in 2000. It was then regarded simply as a relatively new and minor participant in the huge electric utility industry. Subsequently, under David Sokol’s and Greg Abel’s leadership, BHE has become a utility powerhouse (no groaning, please) and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.</p><p>Greg’s report on these accomplishments appears on pages A-3 and A-4. The profile you will find there is not in any way one of those currently-fashionable “green-washing” stories. BHE has been faithfully detailing its plans and performance in renewables and transmissions every year since 2007.</p><p>To further review this information, visit BHE’s website at brkenergy.com. There, you will see that the company has long been making climate-conscious moves that soak up all of its earnings. More opportunities lie ahead. BHE has the management, the experience, the capital and the appetite for the huge power projects that our country needs.</p><h2>Investments</h2><p>Now let’s talk about companies we don’t control, a list that again references Apple. Below we list our fifteen largest equity holdings, several of which are selections of Berkshire’s two long-time investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. At yearend, this valued pair had total authority in respect to $34 billion of investments, many of which do not meet the threshold value we use in the table. Also, a significant portion of the dollars that Todd and Ted manage are lodged in various pension plans of Berkshire-owned businesses, with the assets of these plans not included in this table.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d43587e9f59c0ff76e6c04c6bf9af324\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>* This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis.</p><p>** Held by BHE; consequently, Berkshire shareholders have only a 91.1% interest in this position.</p><p>*** Includes a $10 billion investment in Occidental Petroleum, consisting of preferred stock and warrants to buy common stock, a combination now being valued at $10.7 billion.</p><p>In addition to the footnoted Occidental holding and our various common-stock positions, Berkshire also owns a 26.6% interest in Kraft Heinz (accounted for on the “equity” method, not market value, and carried at $13.1 billion) and 38.6% of Pilot Corp., a leader in travel centers that had revenues last year of $45 billion.</p><p>Since we purchased our Pilot stake in 2017, this holding has warranted “equity” accounting treatment. Early in 2023, Berkshire will purchase an additional interest in Pilot that will raise our ownership to 80% and lead to our fully consolidating Pilot’s earnings, assets and liabilities in our financial statements.</p><h2>U.S. Treasury Bills</h2><p>Berkshire’s balance sheet includes $144 billion of cash and cash equivalents (excluding the holdings of BNSF and BHE). Of this sum, $120 billion is held in U.S. Treasury bills, all maturing in less than a year. That stake leaves Berkshire financing about 12 of 1% of the publicly-held national debt.</p><p>Charlie and I have pledged that Berkshire (along with our subsidiaries other than BNSF and BHE) will always hold more than $30 billion of cash and equivalents. We want your company to be financially impregnable and never dependent on the kindness of strangers (or even that of friends). Both of us like to sleep soundly, and we want our creditors, insurance claimants and you to do so as well.</p><h2>But $144 billion?</h2><p>That imposing sum, I assure you, is not some deranged expression of patriotism. Nor have Charlie and I lost our overwhelming preference for business ownership. Indeed, I first manifested my enthusiasm for that 80 years ago, on March 11, 1942, when I purchased three shares of Cities Services preferred stock. Their cost was $114.75 and required all of my savings. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average that day closed at 99, a fact that should scream to you: Never bet against America.)</p><p>After my initial plunge, I always kept at least 80% of my net worth in equities. My favored status throughout that period was 100% – and still is. Berkshire’s current 80%-or-so position in businesses is a consequence of my failure to find entire companies or small portions thereof (that is, marketable stocks) which meet our criteria for long- term holding.</p><p>Charlie and I have endured similar cash-heavy positions from time to time in the past. These periods are never pleasant; they are also never permanent. And, fortunately, we have had a mildly attractive alternative during 2020 and 2021 for deploying capital. Read on.</p><h2>Share Repurchases</h2><p>There are three ways that we can increase the value of your investment. The first is always front and center in our minds: Increase the long-term earning power of Berkshire’s controlled businesses through internal growth or by making acquisitions. Today, internal opportunities deliver far better returns than acquisitions. The size of those opportunities, however, is small compared to Berkshire’s resources.</p><p>Our second choice is to buy non-controlling part-interests in the many good or great businesses that are publicly traded. From time to time, such possibilities are both numerous and blatantly attractive. Today, though, we find little that excites us.</p><p>That’s largely because of a truism: Long-term interest rates that are low push the prices of all productive investments upward, whether these are stocks, apartments, farms, oil wells, whatever. Other factors influence valuations as well, but interest rates will always be important.</p><p>Our final path to value creation is to repurchase Berkshire shares. Through that simple act, we increase your share of the many controlled and non-controlled businesses Berkshire owns. When the price/value equation is right, this path is the easiest and most certain way for us to increase your wealth. (Alongside the accretion of value to continuing shareholders, a couple of other parties gain: Repurchases are modestly beneficial to the seller of the repurchased shares and to society as well.)</p><p>Periodically, as alternative paths become unattractive, repurchases make good sense for Berkshire’s owners. During the past two years, we therefore repurchased 9% of the shares that were outstanding at yearend 2019 for a total cost of $51.7 billion. That expenditure left our continuing shareholders owning about 10% more of all Berkshire businesses, whether these are wholly-owned (such as BNSF and GEICO) or partly-owned (such as Coca-Cola and Moody’s).</p><p>I want to underscore that for Berkshire repurchases to make sense, our shares must offer appropriate value. We don’t want to overpay for the shares of other companies, and it would be value-destroying if we were to overpay when we are buying Berkshire. As of February 23, 2022, since yearend we repurchased additional shares at a cost of $1.2 billion. Our appetite remains large but will always remain price-dependent.</p><p>It should be noted that Berkshire’s buyback opportunities are limited because of its high-class investor base. If our shares were heavily held by short-term speculators, both price volatility and transaction volumes would materially increase. That kind of reshaping would offer us far greater opportunities for creating value by making repurchases. Nevertheless, Charlie and I far prefer the owners we have, even though their admirable buy-and-keep attitudes limit the extent to which long-term shareholders can profit from opportunistic repurchases.</p><p>Finally, one easily-overlooked value calculation specific to Berkshire: As we’ve discussed, insurance “float” of the right sort is of great value to us. As it happens, repurchases automatically increase the amount of “float” per share. That figure has increased during the past two years by 25% – going from $79,387 per “A” share to $99,497, a meaningful gain that, as noted, owes some thanks to repurchases.</p><h2>A Wonderful Man and a Wonderful Business</h2><p>Last year, Paul Andrews died. Paul was the founder and CEO of TTI, a Fort Worth-based subsidiary of Berkshire. Throughout his life – in both his business and his personal pursuits – Paul quietly displayed all the qualities that Charlie and I admire. His story should be told.</p><p>In 1971, Paul was working as a purchasing agent for General Dynamics when the roof fell in. After losing a huge defense contract, the company fired thousands of employees, including Paul.</p><p>With his first child due soon, Paul decided to bet on himself, using $500 of his savings to found Tex-Tronics (later renamed TTI). The company set itself up to distribute small electronic components, and first-year sales totaled $112,000. Today, TTI markets more than one million different items with annual volume of $7.7 billion.</p><p>But back to 2006: Paul, at 63, then found himself happy with his family, his job, and his associates. But he had one nagging worry, heightened because he had recently witnessed a friend’s early death and the disastrous results that followed for that man’s family and business. What, Paul asked himself in 2006, would happen to the many people depending on him if he should unexpectedly die?</p><p>For a year, Paul wrestled with his options. Sell to a competitor? From a strictly economic viewpoint, that course made the most sense. After all, competitors could envision lucrative “synergies” – savings that would be achieved as the acquiror slashed duplicated functions at TTI.</p><p>But . . . Such a purchaser would most certainly also retain its CFO, its legal counsel, its HR unit. Their TTI counterparts would therefore be sent packing. And ugh! If a new distribution center were to be needed, the acquirer’s home city would certainly be favored over Fort Worth.</p><p>Whatever the financial benefits, Paul quickly concluded that selling to a competitor was not for him. He next considered seeking a financial buyer, a species once labeled – aptly so – a leveraged buyout firm. Paul knew, however, that such a purchaser would be focused on an “exit strategy.” And who could know what that would be? Brooding over it all, Paul found himself having no interest in handing his 35-year-old creation over to a reseller.</p><p>When Paul met me, he explained why he had eliminated these two alternatives as buyers. He then summed up his dilemma by saying – in far more tactful phrasing than this – “After a year of pondering the alternatives, I want to sell to Berkshire because you are the only guy left.” So, I made an offer and Paul said “Yes.” One meeting; one lunch; one deal.</p><p>To say we both lived happily ever after is an understatement. When Berkshire purchased TTI, the company employed 2,387. Now the number is 8,043. A large percentage of that growth took place in Fort Worth and environs. Earnings have increased 673%.</p><p>Annually, I would call Paul and tell him his salary should be substantially increased. Annually, he would tell me, “We can talk about that next year, Warren; I’m too busy now.”</p><p>When Greg Abel and I attended Paul’s memorial service, we met children, grandchildren, long-time associates (including TTI’s first employee) and John Roach, the former CEO of a Fort Worth company Berkshire had purchased in 2000. John had steered his friend Paul to Omaha, instinctively knowing we would be a match.</p><p>At the service, Greg and I heard about the multitudes of people and organizations that Paul had silently supported. The breadth of his generosity was extraordinary – geared always to improving the lives of others, particularly those in Fort Worth.</p><p>In all ways, Paul was a class act.</p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p>Good luck – occasionally extraordinary luck – has played its part at Berkshire. If Paul and I had not enjoyed a mutual friend – John Roach – TTI would not have found its home with us. But that ample serving of luck was only the beginning. TTI was soon to lead Berkshire to its most important acquisition.</p><p>Every fall, Berkshire directors gather for a presentation by a few of our executives. We sometimes choose the site based upon the location of a recent acquisition, by that means allowing directors to meet the new subsidiary’s CEO and learn more about the acquiree’s activities.</p><p>In the fall of 2009, we consequently selected Fort Worth so that we could visit TTI. At that time, BNSF, which also had Fort Worth as its hometown, was the third-largest holding among our marketable equities. Despite that large stake, I had never visited the railroad’s headquarters.</p><p>Deb Bosanek, my assistant, scheduled our board’s opening dinner for October 22. Meanwhile, I arranged to arrive earlier that day to meet with Matt Rose, CEO of BNSF, whose accomplishments I had long admired. When I made the date, I had no idea that our get-together would coincide with BNSF’s third-quarter earnings report, which was released late on the 22nd.</p><p>The market reacted badly to the railroad’s results. The Great Recession was in full force in the third quarter, and BNSF’s earnings reflected that slump. The economic outlook was also bleak, and Wall Street wasn’t feeling friendly to railroads – or much else.</p><p>On the following day, I again got together with Matt and suggested that Berkshire would offer the railroad a better long-term home than it could expect as a public company. I also told him the maximum price that Berkshire would pay.</p><p>Matt relayed the offer to his directors and advisors. Eleven busy days later, Berkshire and BNSF announced a firm deal. And here I’ll venture a rare prediction: BNSF will be a key asset for Berkshire and our country a century from now.</p><p>The BNSF acquisition would never have happened if Paul Andrews hadn’t sized up Berkshire as the right home for TTI.</p><h2>Thanks</h2><p>I taught my first investing class 70 years ago. Since then, I have enjoyed working almost every year with students of all ages, finally “retiring” from that pursuit in 2018.</p><p>Along the way, my toughest audience was my grandson’s fifth-grade class. The 11-year-olds were squirming in their seats and giving me blank stares until I mentioned Coca-Cola and its famous secret formula. Instantly, every hand went up, and I learned that “secrets” are catnip to kids.</p><p>Teaching, like writing, has helped me develop and clarify my own thoughts. Charlie calls this phenomenon the orangutan effect: If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will yourself exit thinking more clearly.</p><p>Talking to university students is far superior. I have urged that they seek employment in (1) the field and (2) with the kind of people they would select, if they had no need for money. Economic realities, I acknowledge, may interfere with that kind of search. Even so, I urge the students never to give up the quest, for when they find that sort of job, they will no longer be “working.”</p><p>Charlie and I, ourselves, followed that liberating course after a few early stumbles. We both started as part- timers at my grandfather’s grocery store, Charlie in 1940 and I in 1942. We were each assigned boring tasks and paid little, definitely not what we had in mind. Charlie later took up law, and I tried selling securities. Job satisfaction continued to elude us.</p><p>Finally, at Berkshire, we found what we love to do. With very few exceptions, we have now “worked” for many decades with people whom we like and trust. It’s a joy in life to join with managers such as Paul Andrews or the Berkshire families I told you about last year. In our home office, we employ decent and talented people – no jerks. Turnover averages, perhaps, one person per year.</p><p>I would like, however, to emphasize a further item that turns our jobs into fun and satisfaction working</p><p>for you. There is nothing more rewarding to Charlie and me than enjoying the trust of individual long-term shareholders who, for many decades, have joined us with the expectation that we would be a reliable custodian of their funds.</p><p>Obviously, we can’t select our owners, as we could do if our form of operation were a partnership. Anyone can buy shares of Berkshire today with the intention of soon reselling them. For sure, we get a few of that type of shareholder, just as we get index funds that own huge amounts of Berkshire simply because they are required to do so.</p><p>To a truly unusual degree, however, Berkshire has as owners a very large corps of individuals and families that have elected to join us with an intent approaching “til death do us part.” Often, they have trusted us with a large – some might say excessive – portion of their savings.</p><p>Berkshire, these shareholders would sometimes acknowledge, might be far from the best selection they could have made. But they would add that Berkshire would rank high among those with which they would be most comfortable. And people who are comfortable with their investments will, on average, achieve better results than those who are motivated by ever-changing headlines, chatter and promises.</p><p>Long-term individual owners are both the “partners” Charlie and I have always sought and the ones we constantly have in mind as we make decisions at Berkshire. To them we say, “It feels good to ‘work’ for you, and you have our thanks for your trust.”</p><h2>The Annual Meeting</h2><p>Clear your calendar! Berkshire will have its annual gathering of capitalists in Omaha on Friday, April 29th through Sunday, May 1st. The details regarding the weekend are laid out on pages A-1 and A-2. Omaha eagerly awaits you, as do I.</p><p>I will end this letter with a sales pitch. “Cousin” Jimmy Buffett has designed a pontoon “party” boat that is now being manufactured by Forest River, a Berkshire subsidiary. The boat will be introduced on April 29 at our Berkshire Bazaar of Bargains. And, for two days only, shareholders will be able to purchase Jimmy’s masterpiece at a 10% discount. Your bargain-hunting chairman will be buying a boat for his family’s use. Join me.</p><p>February 26, 2022</p><p>Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125580913","content_text":"Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday. The 91-year-old investing legend has been publishing the letter for over six decades and it has become required reading for investors around the world.Warren Buffett said he now considers tech giant Apple as one of the four pillars driving Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate of mostly old-economy businesses he’s assembled over the last five decades.In his annual letter to shareholders released on Saturday, the 91-year-old investing legend listed Apple under the heading “Our Four Giants” and even called the company the second-most important after Berkshire’s cluster of insurers, thanks to its chief executive.“Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well,” the letter stated.Buffett made clear he is a fan of Cook’s stock repurchase strategy, and how it gives the conglomerate increased ownership of each dollar of the iPhone maker’s earnings without the investor having to lift a finger.“Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier,” Buffett said in the letter. “That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.”Berkshire began buying Apple stock in 2016 under the influence of Buffett’s investing deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. By mid-2018, the conglomerate accumulated 5% ownership of the iPhone maker, a stake that cost $36 billion. Today, the Apple investment is now worth more than $160 billion, taking up 40% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio.“It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our ‘share’ of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud,” Buffett said.Berkshire is Apple’s largest shareholder, outside of index and exchange-traded fund providers.Buffett also credited his railroad business BNSF and energy segment BHE as two other giants of the conglomerate, which both registered record earnings in 2021.“BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire,” Buffett said. “BHE has become a utility powerhouse and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.”Read the full letter here：To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing a portion of your savings. We are honored by your trust.Our position carries with it the responsibility to report to you what we would like to know if we were the absentee owner and you were the manager. We enjoy communicating directly with you through this annual letter, and through the annual meeting as well.Our policy is to treat all shareholders equally. Therefore, we do not hold discussions with analysts nor large institutions. Whenever possible, also, we release important communications on Saturday mornings in order to maximize the time for shareholders and the media to absorb the news before markets open on Monday.A wealth of Berkshire facts and figures are set forth in the annual 10-K that the company regularly files with the S.E.C. and that we reproduce on pages K-1 – K-119. Some shareholders will find this detail engrossing; others will simply prefer to learn what Charlie and I believe is new or interesting at Berkshire.Alas, there was little action of that sort in 2021. We did, though, make reasonable progress in increasing the intrinsic value of your shares. That task has been my primary duty for 57 years. And it will continue to be.What You OwnBerkshire owns a wide variety of businesses, some in their entirety, some only in part. The second group largely consists of marketable common stocks of major American companies. Additionally, we own a few non-U.S. equities and participate in several joint ventures or other collaborative activities.Whatever our form of ownership, our goal is to have meaningful investments in businesses with both durable economic advantages and a first-class CEO. Please note particularly that we own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.I make many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses includes some enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many others that enjoy good economic characteristics, and a few that are marginal. One advantage of our common-stock segment is that – on occasion – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. That shooting-fish-in-a-barrel experience is very rare in negotiated transactions and never occurs en masse. It is also far easier to exit from a mistake when it has been made in the marketable arena.Surprise, SurpriseHere are a few items about your company that often surprise even seasoned investors:• Many people perceive Berkshire as a large and somewhat strange collection of financial assets. In truth, Berkshire owns and operates more U.S.-based “infrastructure” assets – classified on our balance sheet as property, plant and equipment – than are owned and operated by any other American corporation. That supremacy has never been our goal. It has, however, become a fact.At yearend, those domestic infrastructure assets were carried on Berkshire’s balance sheet at $158 billion. That number increased last year and will continue to increase. Berkshire always will be building.• Every year, your company makes substantial federal income tax payments. In 2021, for example, we paid$3.3 billion while the U.S. Treasury reported total corporate income-tax receipts of $402 billion. Additionally, Berkshire pays substantial state and foreign taxes. “I gave at the office” is an unassailable assertion when made by Berkshire shareholders.Berkshire’s history vividly illustrates the invisible and often unrecognized financial partnership between  government and American businesses. Our tale begins early in 1955, when Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing agreed to merge their businesses. In their requests for shareholder approval, these venerable New England textile companies expressed high hopes for the combination.The Hathaway solicitation, for example, assured its shareholders that “The combination of the resources and managements will result in one of the strongest and most efficient organizations in the textile industry.” That upbeat view was endorsed by the company’s advisor, Lehman Brothers (yes, that Lehman Brothers).I’m sure it was a joyous day in both Fall River (Berkshire) and New Bedford (Hathaway) when the union was consummated. After the bands stopped playing and the bankers went home, however, the shareholders reaped a disaster.In the nine years following the merger, Berkshire’s owners watched the company’s net worth crater from$51.4 million to $22.1 million. In part, this decline was caused by stock repurchases, ill-advised dividends and plant shutdowns. But nine years of effort by many thousands of employees delivered an operating loss as well. Berkshire’s struggles were not unusual: The New England textile industry had silently entered an extended and non-reversible death march.During the nine post-merger years, the U.S. Treasury suffered as well from Berkshire’s troubles. All told, the company paid the government only $337,359 in income tax during that period – a pathetic $100 per day.Early in 1965, things changed. Berkshire installed new management that redeployed available cash and steered essentially all earnings into a variety of good businesses, most of which remained good through the years. Coupling reinvestment of earnings with the power of compounding worked its magic, and shareholders prospered.Berkshire’s owners, it should be noted, were not the only beneficiary of that course correction. Their “silent partner,” the U.S. Treasury, proceeded to collect many tens of billions of dollars from the company in income tax payments. Remember the $100 daily? Now, Berkshire pays roughly $9 million daily to the Treasury.In fairness to our governmental partner, our shareholders should acknowledge – indeed trumpet – the fact that Berkshire’s prosperity has been fostered mightily because the company has operated in America. Our country would have done splendidly in the years since 1965 without Berkshire. Absent our American home, however, Berkshire would never have come close to becoming what it is today. When you see the flag, say thanks.• From an $8.6 million purchase of National Indemnity in 1967, Berkshire has become the world leader in insurance “float” – money we hold and can invest but that does not belong to us. Including a relatively small sum derived from life insurance, Berkshire’s total float has grown from $19 million when we entered the insurance business to $147 billion.So far, this float has cost us less than nothing. Though we have experienced a number of years when insurance losses combined with operating expenses exceeded premiums, overall we have earned a modest 55-year profit from the underwriting activities that generated our float.Of equal importance, float is very sticky. Funds attributable to our insurance operations come and go daily, but their aggregate total is immune from precipitous decline. When it comes to investing float, we can therefore think long-term.If you are not already familiar with the concept of float, I refer you to a long explanation on page A-5. To my surprise, our float increased $9 billion last year, a buildup of value that is important to Berkshire owners though is not reflected in our GAAP (“generally-accepted accounting principles”) presentation of earnings and net worth.Much of our huge value creation in insurance is attributable to Berkshire’s good luck in my 1986 hiring of Ajit Jain. We first met on a Saturday morning, and I quickly asked Ajit what his insurance experience had been. He replied, “None.”I said, “Nobody’s perfect,” and hired him. That was my lucky day: Ajit actually was as perfect a choice as could have been made. Better yet, he continues to be – 35 years later.One final thought about insurance: I believe that it is likely – but far from assured – that Berkshire’s float can be maintained without our incurring a long-term underwriting loss. I am certain, however, that there will be some years when we experience such losses, perhaps involving very large sums.Berkshire is constructed to handle catastrophic events as no other insurer – and that priority will remain long after Charlie and I are gone.Our Four GiantsThrough Berkshire, our shareholders own many dozens of businesses. Some of these, in turn, have a collection of subsidiaries of their own. For example, Marmon has more than 100 individual business operations, ranging from the leasing of railroad cars to the manufacture of medical devices.• Nevertheless, operations of our “Big Four” companies account for a very large chunk of Berkshire’s value. Leading this list is our cluster of insurers. Berkshire effectively owns 100% of this group, whose massive float value we earlier described. The invested assets of these insurers are further enlarged by the extraordinary amount of capital we invest to back up their promises.The insurance business is made to order for Berkshire. The product will never be obsolete, and sales volume will generally increase along with both economic growth and inflation. Also, integrity and capital will forever be important. Our company can and will behave well.There are, of course, other insurers with excellent business models and prospects. Replication of Berkshire’s operation, however, would be almost impossible.• Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier. That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our “share” of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud. Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well.• BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire. If the many essential products BNSF carries were instead hauled by truck, America’s carbon emissions would soar.Your railroad had record earnings of $6 billion in 2021. Here, it should be noted, we are talking about the old-fashioned sort of earnings that we favor: a figure calculated after interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and all forms of compensation. (Our definition suggests a warning: Deceptive “adjustments” to earnings – to use a polite description – have become both more frequent and more fanciful as stocks have risen. Speaking less politely, I would say that bull markets breed bloviated bull )BNSF trains traveled 143 million miles last year and carried 535 million tons of cargo. Both accomplishments far exceed those of any other American carrier. You can be proud of your railroad.• BHE, our final Giant, earned a record $4 billion in 2021. That’s up more than 30-fold from the $122 million earned in 2000, the year that Berkshire first purchased a BHE stake. Now, Berkshire owns 91.1% of the company.BHE’s record of societal accomplishment is as remarkable as its financial performance. The company had no wind or solar generation in 2000. It was then regarded simply as a relatively new and minor participant in the huge electric utility industry. Subsequently, under David Sokol’s and Greg Abel’s leadership, BHE has become a utility powerhouse (no groaning, please) and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.Greg’s report on these accomplishments appears on pages A-3 and A-4. The profile you will find there is not in any way one of those currently-fashionable “green-washing” stories. BHE has been faithfully detailing its plans and performance in renewables and transmissions every year since 2007.To further review this information, visit BHE’s website at brkenergy.com. There, you will see that the company has long been making climate-conscious moves that soak up all of its earnings. More opportunities lie ahead. BHE has the management, the experience, the capital and the appetite for the huge power projects that our country needs.InvestmentsNow let’s talk about companies we don’t control, a list that again references Apple. Below we list our fifteen largest equity holdings, several of which are selections of Berkshire’s two long-time investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. At yearend, this valued pair had total authority in respect to $34 billion of investments, many of which do not meet the threshold value we use in the table. Also, a significant portion of the dollars that Todd and Ted manage are lodged in various pension plans of Berkshire-owned businesses, with the assets of these plans not included in this table.* This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis.** Held by BHE; consequently, Berkshire shareholders have only a 91.1% interest in this position.*** Includes a $10 billion investment in Occidental Petroleum, consisting of preferred stock and warrants to buy common stock, a combination now being valued at $10.7 billion.In addition to the footnoted Occidental holding and our various common-stock positions, Berkshire also owns a 26.6% interest in Kraft Heinz (accounted for on the “equity” method, not market value, and carried at $13.1 billion) and 38.6% of Pilot Corp., a leader in travel centers that had revenues last year of $45 billion.Since we purchased our Pilot stake in 2017, this holding has warranted “equity” accounting treatment. Early in 2023, Berkshire will purchase an additional interest in Pilot that will raise our ownership to 80% and lead to our fully consolidating Pilot’s earnings, assets and liabilities in our financial statements.U.S. Treasury BillsBerkshire’s balance sheet includes $144 billion of cash and cash equivalents (excluding the holdings of BNSF and BHE). Of this sum, $120 billion is held in U.S. Treasury bills, all maturing in less than a year. That stake leaves Berkshire financing about 12 of 1% of the publicly-held national debt.Charlie and I have pledged that Berkshire (along with our subsidiaries other than BNSF and BHE) will always hold more than $30 billion of cash and equivalents. We want your company to be financially impregnable and never dependent on the kindness of strangers (or even that of friends). Both of us like to sleep soundly, and we want our creditors, insurance claimants and you to do so as well.But $144 billion?That imposing sum, I assure you, is not some deranged expression of patriotism. Nor have Charlie and I lost our overwhelming preference for business ownership. Indeed, I first manifested my enthusiasm for that 80 years ago, on March 11, 1942, when I purchased three shares of Cities Services preferred stock. Their cost was $114.75 and required all of my savings. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average that day closed at 99, a fact that should scream to you: Never bet against America.)After my initial plunge, I always kept at least 80% of my net worth in equities. My favored status throughout that period was 100% – and still is. Berkshire’s current 80%-or-so position in businesses is a consequence of my failure to find entire companies or small portions thereof (that is, marketable stocks) which meet our criteria for long- term holding.Charlie and I have endured similar cash-heavy positions from time to time in the past. These periods are never pleasant; they are also never permanent. And, fortunately, we have had a mildly attractive alternative during 2020 and 2021 for deploying capital. Read on.Share RepurchasesThere are three ways that we can increase the value of your investment. The first is always front and center in our minds: Increase the long-term earning power of Berkshire’s controlled businesses through internal growth or by making acquisitions. Today, internal opportunities deliver far better returns than acquisitions. The size of those opportunities, however, is small compared to Berkshire’s resources.Our second choice is to buy non-controlling part-interests in the many good or great businesses that are publicly traded. From time to time, such possibilities are both numerous and blatantly attractive. Today, though, we find little that excites us.That’s largely because of a truism: Long-term interest rates that are low push the prices of all productive investments upward, whether these are stocks, apartments, farms, oil wells, whatever. Other factors influence valuations as well, but interest rates will always be important.Our final path to value creation is to repurchase Berkshire shares. Through that simple act, we increase your share of the many controlled and non-controlled businesses Berkshire owns. When the price/value equation is right, this path is the easiest and most certain way for us to increase your wealth. (Alongside the accretion of value to continuing shareholders, a couple of other parties gain: Repurchases are modestly beneficial to the seller of the repurchased shares and to society as well.)Periodically, as alternative paths become unattractive, repurchases make good sense for Berkshire’s owners. During the past two years, we therefore repurchased 9% of the shares that were outstanding at yearend 2019 for a total cost of $51.7 billion. That expenditure left our continuing shareholders owning about 10% more of all Berkshire businesses, whether these are wholly-owned (such as BNSF and GEICO) or partly-owned (such as Coca-Cola and Moody’s).I want to underscore that for Berkshire repurchases to make sense, our shares must offer appropriate value. We don’t want to overpay for the shares of other companies, and it would be value-destroying if we were to overpay when we are buying Berkshire. As of February 23, 2022, since yearend we repurchased additional shares at a cost of $1.2 billion. Our appetite remains large but will always remain price-dependent.It should be noted that Berkshire’s buyback opportunities are limited because of its high-class investor base. If our shares were heavily held by short-term speculators, both price volatility and transaction volumes would materially increase. That kind of reshaping would offer us far greater opportunities for creating value by making repurchases. Nevertheless, Charlie and I far prefer the owners we have, even though their admirable buy-and-keep attitudes limit the extent to which long-term shareholders can profit from opportunistic repurchases.Finally, one easily-overlooked value calculation specific to Berkshire: As we’ve discussed, insurance “float” of the right sort is of great value to us. As it happens, repurchases automatically increase the amount of “float” per share. That figure has increased during the past two years by 25% – going from $79,387 per “A” share to $99,497, a meaningful gain that, as noted, owes some thanks to repurchases.A Wonderful Man and a Wonderful BusinessLast year, Paul Andrews died. Paul was the founder and CEO of TTI, a Fort Worth-based subsidiary of Berkshire. Throughout his life – in both his business and his personal pursuits – Paul quietly displayed all the qualities that Charlie and I admire. His story should be told.In 1971, Paul was working as a purchasing agent for General Dynamics when the roof fell in. After losing a huge defense contract, the company fired thousands of employees, including Paul.With his first child due soon, Paul decided to bet on himself, using $500 of his savings to found Tex-Tronics (later renamed TTI). The company set itself up to distribute small electronic components, and first-year sales totaled $112,000. Today, TTI markets more than one million different items with annual volume of $7.7 billion.But back to 2006: Paul, at 63, then found himself happy with his family, his job, and his associates. But he had one nagging worry, heightened because he had recently witnessed a friend’s early death and the disastrous results that followed for that man’s family and business. What, Paul asked himself in 2006, would happen to the many people depending on him if he should unexpectedly die?For a year, Paul wrestled with his options. Sell to a competitor? From a strictly economic viewpoint, that course made the most sense. After all, competitors could envision lucrative “synergies” – savings that would be achieved as the acquiror slashed duplicated functions at TTI.But . . . Such a purchaser would most certainly also retain its CFO, its legal counsel, its HR unit. Their TTI counterparts would therefore be sent packing. And ugh! If a new distribution center were to be needed, the acquirer’s home city would certainly be favored over Fort Worth.Whatever the financial benefits, Paul quickly concluded that selling to a competitor was not for him. He next considered seeking a financial buyer, a species once labeled – aptly so – a leveraged buyout firm. Paul knew, however, that such a purchaser would be focused on an “exit strategy.” And who could know what that would be? Brooding over it all, Paul found himself having no interest in handing his 35-year-old creation over to a reseller.When Paul met me, he explained why he had eliminated these two alternatives as buyers. He then summed up his dilemma by saying – in far more tactful phrasing than this – “After a year of pondering the alternatives, I want to sell to Berkshire because you are the only guy left.” So, I made an offer and Paul said “Yes.” One meeting; one lunch; one deal.To say we both lived happily ever after is an understatement. When Berkshire purchased TTI, the company employed 2,387. Now the number is 8,043. A large percentage of that growth took place in Fort Worth and environs. Earnings have increased 673%.Annually, I would call Paul and tell him his salary should be substantially increased. Annually, he would tell me, “We can talk about that next year, Warren; I’m too busy now.”When Greg Abel and I attended Paul’s memorial service, we met children, grandchildren, long-time associates (including TTI’s first employee) and John Roach, the former CEO of a Fort Worth company Berkshire had purchased in 2000. John had steered his friend Paul to Omaha, instinctively knowing we would be a match.At the service, Greg and I heard about the multitudes of people and organizations that Paul had silently supported. The breadth of his generosity was extraordinary – geared always to improving the lives of others, particularly those in Fort Worth.In all ways, Paul was a class act.* * * * * * * * * * * *Good luck – occasionally extraordinary luck – has played its part at Berkshire. If Paul and I had not enjoyed a mutual friend – John Roach – TTI would not have found its home with us. But that ample serving of luck was only the beginning. TTI was soon to lead Berkshire to its most important acquisition.Every fall, Berkshire directors gather for a presentation by a few of our executives. We sometimes choose the site based upon the location of a recent acquisition, by that means allowing directors to meet the new subsidiary’s CEO and learn more about the acquiree’s activities.In the fall of 2009, we consequently selected Fort Worth so that we could visit TTI. At that time, BNSF, which also had Fort Worth as its hometown, was the third-largest holding among our marketable equities. Despite that large stake, I had never visited the railroad’s headquarters.Deb Bosanek, my assistant, scheduled our board’s opening dinner for October 22. Meanwhile, I arranged to arrive earlier that day to meet with Matt Rose, CEO of BNSF, whose accomplishments I had long admired. When I made the date, I had no idea that our get-together would coincide with BNSF’s third-quarter earnings report, which was released late on the 22nd.The market reacted badly to the railroad’s results. The Great Recession was in full force in the third quarter, and BNSF’s earnings reflected that slump. The economic outlook was also bleak, and Wall Street wasn’t feeling friendly to railroads – or much else.On the following day, I again got together with Matt and suggested that Berkshire would offer the railroad a better long-term home than it could expect as a public company. I also told him the maximum price that Berkshire would pay.Matt relayed the offer to his directors and advisors. Eleven busy days later, Berkshire and BNSF announced a firm deal. And here I’ll venture a rare prediction: BNSF will be a key asset for Berkshire and our country a century from now.The BNSF acquisition would never have happened if Paul Andrews hadn’t sized up Berkshire as the right home for TTI.ThanksI taught my first investing class 70 years ago. Since then, I have enjoyed working almost every year with students of all ages, finally “retiring” from that pursuit in 2018.Along the way, my toughest audience was my grandson’s fifth-grade class. The 11-year-olds were squirming in their seats and giving me blank stares until I mentioned Coca-Cola and its famous secret formula. Instantly, every hand went up, and I learned that “secrets” are catnip to kids.Teaching, like writing, has helped me develop and clarify my own thoughts. Charlie calls this phenomenon the orangutan effect: If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will yourself exit thinking more clearly.Talking to university students is far superior. I have urged that they seek employment in (1) the field and (2) with the kind of people they would select, if they had no need for money. Economic realities, I acknowledge, may interfere with that kind of search. Even so, I urge the students never to give up the quest, for when they find that sort of job, they will no longer be “working.”Charlie and I, ourselves, followed that liberating course after a few early stumbles. We both started as part- timers at my grandfather’s grocery store, Charlie in 1940 and I in 1942. We were each assigned boring tasks and paid little, definitely not what we had in mind. Charlie later took up law, and I tried selling securities. Job satisfaction continued to elude us.Finally, at Berkshire, we found what we love to do. With very few exceptions, we have now “worked” for many decades with people whom we like and trust. It’s a joy in life to join with managers such as Paul Andrews or the Berkshire families I told you about last year. In our home office, we employ decent and talented people – no jerks. Turnover averages, perhaps, one person per year.I would like, however, to emphasize a further item that turns our jobs into fun and satisfaction workingfor you. There is nothing more rewarding to Charlie and me than enjoying the trust of individual long-term shareholders who, for many decades, have joined us with the expectation that we would be a reliable custodian of their funds.Obviously, we can’t select our owners, as we could do if our form of operation were a partnership. Anyone can buy shares of Berkshire today with the intention of soon reselling them. For sure, we get a few of that type of shareholder, just as we get index funds that own huge amounts of Berkshire simply because they are required to do so.To a truly unusual degree, however, Berkshire has as owners a very large corps of individuals and families that have elected to join us with an intent approaching “til death do us part.” Often, they have trusted us with a large – some might say excessive – portion of their savings.Berkshire, these shareholders would sometimes acknowledge, might be far from the best selection they could have made. But they would add that Berkshire would rank high among those with which they would be most comfortable. And people who are comfortable with their investments will, on average, achieve better results than those who are motivated by ever-changing headlines, chatter and promises.Long-term individual owners are both the “partners” Charlie and I have always sought and the ones we constantly have in mind as we make decisions at Berkshire. To them we say, “It feels good to ‘work’ for you, and you have our thanks for your trust.”The Annual MeetingClear your calendar! Berkshire will have its annual gathering of capitalists in Omaha on Friday, April 29th through Sunday, May 1st. The details regarding the weekend are laid out on pages A-1 and A-2. Omaha eagerly awaits you, as do I.I will end this letter with a sales pitch. “Cousin” Jimmy Buffett has designed a pontoon “party” boat that is now being manufactured by Forest River, a Berkshire subsidiary. The boat will be introduced on April 29 at our Berkshire Bazaar of Bargains. And, for two days only, shareholders will be able to purchase Jimmy’s masterpiece at a 10% discount. Your bargain-hunting chairman will be buying a boat for his family’s use. Join me.February 26, 2022Warren E. 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it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097443122","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097049833,"gmtCreate":1645282700749,"gmtModify":1676534015562,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>forever with you ♥!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>forever with you ♥!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$forever with you ♥!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097049833","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094145719,"gmtCreate":1645097395556,"gmtModify":1676533996498,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>I know you can do it!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>I know you can do it!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$I know you can do it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094145719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095760327,"gmtCreate":1644995175370,"gmtModify":1676533984578,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095760327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":149599606,"gmtCreate":1625733853205,"gmtModify":1703747374460,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>Give me a \"Like\", if you think tonight will be good.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>Give me a \"Like\", if you think tonight will be good.","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$Give me a \"Like\", if you think tonight will be good.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":42,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149599606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091578621,"gmtCreate":1643913075888,"gmtModify":1676533870528,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>still holding for you.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>still holding for you.","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$still holding for you.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9091578621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9090026571,"gmtCreate":1643038056697,"gmtModify":1676533767723,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>No way I'm going to sell, be it rocket up or rocket down.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>No way I'm going to sell, be it rocket up or rocket down.","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$No way I'm going to sell, be it rocket up or rocket down.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090026571","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582942911161794","authorId":"3582942911161794","name":"Nanamoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8624e691b889b8bc4515d1884744eb5a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582942911161794","authorIdStr":"3582942911161794"},"content":"me too. F care all. I have the holding power.","text":"me too. F care all. I have the holding power.","html":"me too. F care all. I have the holding power."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887509610,"gmtCreate":1632057423630,"gmtModify":1676530693691,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>give me a like for Green!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>give me a like for Green!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$give me a like for Green!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887509610","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033069622,"gmtCreate":1646154636644,"gmtModify":1676534096690,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my hope still is you!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my hope still is you!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my hope still is you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033069622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097049833,"gmtCreate":1645282700749,"gmtModify":1676534015562,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>forever with you ♥!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>forever with you ♥!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$forever with you ♥!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097049833","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813174809,"gmtCreate":1630161939001,"gmtModify":1676530236662,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>pls like, cause I'm holding","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>pls like, cause I'm holding","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$pls like, cause I'm holding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813174809","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001707122,"gmtCreate":1641311441345,"gmtModify":1676533596699,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>still have high hope for you!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>still have high hope for you!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$still have high hope for you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001707122","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582942911161794","authorId":"3582942911161794","name":"Nanamoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8624e691b889b8bc4515d1884744eb5a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582942911161794","authorIdStr":"3582942911161794"},"content":"Thanks for giving the positive thoughts else see liao also kek sim [Grin]","text":"Thanks for giving the positive thoughts else see liao also kek sim [Grin]","html":"Thanks for giving the positive thoughts else see liao also kek sim [Grin]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832666798,"gmtCreate":1629622786814,"gmtModify":1676530081457,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>please give a like to AMC","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>please give a like to AMC","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$please give a like to AMC","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832666798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030209018,"gmtCreate":1645720140467,"gmtModify":1676534057375,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>👍","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030209018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934212761,"gmtCreate":1663254169753,"gmtModify":1676537237768,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GIVE a like","listText":"GIVE a like","text":"GIVE a like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934212761","repostId":"1151063859","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151063859","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663252348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151063859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151063859","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>With slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft&#39;s stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.</li><li>Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are set to pressure corporate earnings, and while Microsoft&#39;s numbers might hold up better than most peers, it is not immune to the economy.</li><li>In recent weeks, Microsoft&#39;s insiders (including the CEO &amp; CFO) have been cashing out of the stock in a big way. Is it time for retail investors to sell too?</li><li>While Microsoft is a great company, its premium valuation is a recipe for single-digit returns over the next five years.</li><li>For investors comfortable with mid-single digit returns in exchange for greater stability, holding MSFT at current levels is ok (but far from ideal). I rate MSFT &#39;Neutral&#39; at $252 per share.</li></ul><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>On Tuesday, Microsoft&#39;s (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock got hammered down along with broader markets [S&amp;P 500 down ~4%, Nasdaq-100 down 5%+] on concerns regarding a hotter-than-expected CPI print (8.3% in August 2022), and more so due to rising expectations of a ~75-100 bps rate hike from the FED at its September meeting next week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdd9276850280fde49f1571850b8dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finviz</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8b481a1dbe9f80d2dd6338e7929cf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNBC</p><p>After this latest price drop, Microsoft is staring at the prospect of retesting its 52-week lows of ~$240, last seen in June 2022. In my recent notes on Microsoft, I have rated the stock &#39;Neutral / Avoid&#39;, citing the sheer lack of risk premium. Furthermore, we have discussed the potential of a ~30-50% decline in Microsoft&#39;s stock due to an inevitable normalization of trading multiples, given the current macroeconomic environment.</p><p>In today&#39;s note, I would like to draw your attention to the ongoing insider selling, rising macro risk, worsening business fundamentals, and Microsoft&#39;s excessive absolute valuation.</p><p><b>Insiders Are Selling Hand Over Fist</b></p><p>Back in November 2021, Satya Nadella (Microsoft&#39;s CEO) sold roughly half of his Microsoft shares for around ~$340, which as of today, looks like him nailing the exact top on the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b598b689ee9280c8a82e6fbb6c4b855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nasdaq</p><p>And then, since late August, Satya has been at it again, selling ~167K shares [disposing of all of his latest stock grants and some additional shares]. Moreover, Amy Hood (Microsoft&#39;s CFO) joined in the fun last week and sold many of her shares, cashing out millions of dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01da63e92c7af417306e354c94158a77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nasdaq</p><p>With C-suite executives cashing out, it is fair to ask, &#34;Is it time for retail investors to get out of Microsoft?&#34; Let&#39;s find out.</p><p>Where Do We Stand And How Much Lower Could MSFT Go From Here?</p><p>After fading its latest rally, Microsoft&#39;s stock is hovering right above its June lows of ~$240 per share. Over the last year or so, Microsoft&#39;s trading multiples have been normalizing. With a P/E ratio of ~26x, Microsoft stock is far from cheap, especially because in a high-inflation environment, index multiples tend to go far lower than historical P/E averages of 15-20x. Even if Microsoft were to simply go down to 20x P/E, that would mean a 25-30% correction in the stock (&amp; that is only mean reversion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c8ec23056c1861a50cff72e4a7ba0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Furthermore, if Microsoft&#39;s earnings moderate over the next few quarters like they generally do at this stage of the cycle for technology companies, its stock may have much more downside risk than what has been priced at this moment. During the 2007-09 recession, Microsoft&#39;s FCF yield rose to ~11%, and if we were to end up going that high, the stock would probably need to fall by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519927c5ff03fa1e8ccaa8196fd425f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Comparing Microsoft&#39;s free cash flow yield (of 3.43%) with treasury rates (&gt;3.5%), you can easily see the lack of risk premium attached to Microsoft&#39;s stock, i.e., the market is telling us that Microsoft is safer than treasuries. While this may be true to some extent, Microsoft&#39;s business is not immune from broader macro, and it certainly doesn&#39;t have the liberty of printing money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0acf3faa059e9652f28ca08cbb4c6c75\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Treasury Rates on 13th September 2022 (CNBC)</p><p>Persistent inflation, surging interest rates, and a potential economic recession are set to bring several headwinds for Microsoft, and the stock may continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. Let&#39;s discuss some business fundamentals of Microsoft to ensure we are on the same page here.</p><p><b>Business Fundamentals Are Deteriorating</b></p><p>Microsoft&#39;s latest quarterly results met street expectations. Since these numbers have been widely discussed, we won&#39;t explore them today. Rather, I think we should look at the bigger picture by zooming out a little. In Q4 FY22, Microsoft&#39;s revenue growth rate continued decelerating, with operating margins also decreasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028e0d5bd23551eda76fe1fd5b5f8a4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>For FY-23, Microsoft&#39;s management expects double-digit growth in revenues and operating income [despite operating margins projected to remain flat]. While this guidance seemed to have buoyed analysts and investors alike [with MSFT&#39;s stock rocketing up to $290 per share], I don&#39;t think these numbers would be achieved in a recession [that&#39;s looking likelier by the day]. Back in 2007-09 (during the global financial crisis), Microsoft&#39;s revenues and operating margins declined significantly, which shows that Microsoft is not immune to the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ccf2abbbf515944557a249d5502482\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft FY2023 Outlook</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3bff8de6f97517863566aac7a80521\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft FY2023 Outlook</p><p>During Microsoft&#39;s Q4-FY2022 earnings call, the company&#39;s CEO and CFO made it clear that the tech giant is not immune to the macroeconomic environment and that its FY2023 guidance was based on the current macro environment. Here&#39;s an excerpt from the latest earnings call transcript (the must-read parts are highlighted in bold):</p><blockquote><b>MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein:</b>Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter. I&#39;d like to follow up a little bit on that.<b>With all the concerns about macro recession, everyone&#39;s trying to understand how cloud, and from Microsoft&#39;s case more specifically, IaaS, PaaS operates in a slowdown recession. How do you think about Azure&#39;s resiliency? How do you think about Azure&#39;s exposure to advertising business, consumer Internet and SMB if we do see a real recession?</b>Thank you.</blockquote><blockquote><b>SATYA NADELLA:</b>Yeah, maybe I&#39;ll start, and Amy, feel free to add.<b>I mean, overall, we&#39;re not immune to what&#39;s happening in the macro broadly</b>, right, to Keith&#39;s question and your question Mark. I think I&#39;d say I&#39;d start there, because whether it&#39;s on the demand side with consumers or SMBs, I think Amy in her remarks talked about some of that, even in our results in the quarter. But what&#39;s happening with it in Azure, though, is in some sense, businesses trying to deal with the overall macroeconomic situation and trying to make sure that they can do more with less.</blockquote><blockquote>For example, moving to the cloud is the best way to shape your spend with demand uncertainty, right, because in fact, if anything, one of the things that we&#39;re seeing is an increased shift towards the cloud, and then of course, optimizing your bill. We are incenting even our own field to ensure that the bills for our customers come down. And that, in fact, even shows up in some of the volatility in our Azure numbers, because that&#39;s one of the big benefits of the public cloud. And that&#39;s why I think, coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner, because it does act as that deflationary force.</blockquote><blockquote>So, that&#39;s sort of what we are seeing in the Azure numbers. We will be exposed to consumer driven businesses and SMBs, but at some level, our strength as a company is much stronger in the core commercial. So, I think that will do fine there.</blockquote><blockquote>The other one is also people building new applications that are completely new frontier. I mean, there are two numbers that I talked about. One is the triple digit growth in Cosmos DB, and triple digit growth in Container App Services. You take those two things, and you say, what are people doing? People are writing applications at a completely different frontier of efficiency, which is a cloud-native, serverless, container-based types of applications.</blockquote><blockquote>And so, to me, that&#39;s another way for you to make sure that your IT spend goes a long way in a time like this.</blockquote><blockquote><b>BRENT THILL, Jefferies:</b>Amy, great to hear the double-digit guidance. I guess many are asking<b>are you embedding a worsening macroenvironment or a similar environment that we&#39;re in to get to that type of growth?</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>AMY HOOD:</b>Thanks, Brent.<b>As I said, it&#39;s trying to take into account the current macroenvironment.</b>And as I said, I took what we saw in June, applied it as best we thought we could through the course of the fiscal year. And if you think about how the… and if you try to look over the course of the year with some of my comments, you&#39;d say, okay, in H1 vs. H2, I would point out three things that changed a bit over the course of that time.</blockquote><blockquote>First, of course, if we&#39;re talking about USD, it would be FX. It&#39;s a bigger headwind in H1; it&#39;s less of a headwind in H2. The second thing I would point to would be OpEx. As we&#39;ve talked about in H1, we&#39;ve obviously added .2% headcount this quarter. We still have 11,000 hires that we have started in Q1. We&#39;ve still got Nuance and Xandr in acquisitions, and we anniversary, a lot of that as we focus our hiring and focus on the productivity of all the hiring we&#39;ve done over the past year, and then the OEM comparables obviously get a lot different when you get from H1 into H2. And so, as you&#39;re trying to think about the shape, and how did I consider it, I sort of took those things into account, thought about the trends we&#39;ve been seeing in June and applied them as best we can.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Microsoft Q4-FY2022 Earnings Call Transcript</blockquote><p>While we might very well be in a recession already, enterprise spending is generally the last shoe to drop in a cycle, and we have not seen any signs of that so far. The FED is tightening into a slowing economy due to red-hot inflation; however, the probability of a recession is rising rapidly. This is why I fear that Microsoft may fail to meet its FY2023 guidance. I may be wrong here, but it is pretty clear that Microsoft&#39;s business could come under pressure if the macro worsens from here, which is very likely to happen.</p><p>Microsoft&#39;s balance sheet is truly a fortress with ~$55B of net cash; however, things may change quickly if the $68.7B deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) goes through in the next 9-12 months (as per timeline). After this deal closes, Microsoft would still have ~$35-40B in cash (negative net cash, unless the company reduces its capital return program). And this cash position, combined with free cash flow generation, make Microsoft&#39;s dividend safe. However, if operating margins were to decline a lot, we may see a temporary suspension of Microsoft&#39;s stock buyback program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1815a464e327b1ed52ae0a6187a0c010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Overall, Microsoft is a fantastic company, and the fact that it is growing at this scale is truly astounding. With that said, Microsoft&#39;s business fundamentals are deteriorating - slowing revenue growth, flattening operating margins, and a worsening balance sheet. Considering all of this information, let&#39;s evaluate Microsoft&#39;s absolute fair value and 5-yr expected returns.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p><p>The exercise starts with simple data collection for inputs such as stock price, TTM revenue, and share count. To approximate the future free cash flows for Microsoft, I have used a two-step growth model: 10% CAGR growth for the first five years, followed by terminal growth of 3% per year.</p><p>As you know, Microsoft is highly profitable, with operating margins consistently above 30% over the years, and hence, assuming a 30% optimized FCF margin at maturity is quite reasonable in my view. Despite Microsoft spending big on Activision, I think the tech giant will persist with its shareholder-friendly capital return policies.</p><p>Lastly, I used a 10% discount rate (required IRR) for Microsoft, which happens to be the next best alternative (S&amp;P 500&#39;s historical return) for long-term investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0470579af9dcb3b1c3c3b2d8e3aff4a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TQI Valuation Model (Author)</p><p>According to our valuation model, Microsoft&#39;s fair value is ~$156.27 per share (or $1.17T). With the stock trading at ~$252 per share, I think it is still trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value.</p><p>Predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to stay depressed, higher equity multiples would stay here. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. Since Microsoft&#39;s scale and quality of business deserves a premium, I assigned a base case exit P/FCF multiple of ~25x.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf57982886a90b915f9411d20ae90c46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TQI Valuation Model (Author)</p><p>By 2027, Microsoft could grow from ~$252 to ~$384 at a CAGR of 8.8%. Since Microsoft&#39;s expected returns fall short of our required IRR of 10%, it is not a buy. However, long-term investors who are willing to accept single-digit returns in exchange for greater stability (lower volatility) can continue to hold the stock.</p><p>Remember, the intrinsic value and price targets we determined in this exercise are approximations of my expectations for Microsoft&#39;s business, which may differ materially in reality down the line. The purpose of performing this exercise is not to nail down the precise valuation of a business; it is to generate a good approximation of what a business can do for us. If we find that the current odds are favorable for long-term investors (us) even with conservative assumptions [&amp; margin of safety], then and only then, we take a long position!</p><p>As an analyst and an investor, I always strive to generate the best possible approximation for all companies under research. Despite all the due diligence I perform, I could be wrong, and this is why I always try to buy stocks with a margin of safety (at a discount to intrinsic value).</p><p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p>Despite being down more than ~28% from its 2021 highs, Microsoft&#39;s stock continues to trade at a steep premium to its intrinsic value. With revenue and operating income growth slowing down in the face of a potential economic recession, Microsoft looks ripe for further normalization in trading multiples.</p><p>Another 12% price decline and Microsoft would be trading at multiples last seen during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. However, a mover of this magnitude may not be enough, as inflation remains red hot, and the FED continues tightening its monetary policy despite the rising likelihood of an economic recession. As we saw today, Microsoft is not immune to macro, and any downward earnings revisions or guidance cuts could lead to a big sell-off in Microsoft&#39;s stock. On an absolute value basis, I believe that Microsoft is worth ~$156.27 per share, which means there may be more pain to come for MSFT shareholders. An old adage in investing goes like this - &#34;Don&#39;t Fight The Fed&#34; - and this quote is apt for today&#39;s market conditions. With important insiders also selling shares of Microsoft, I find it really, really hard to justify a new purchase at these elevated multiples. That said, long-term DGI investors could continue to &#39;Hold&#39; at this price. If Microsoft gets down to ~20x P/E, I will look to add more shares at that time.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Microsoft a &#39;Neutral / Avoid&#39; at $252.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below or DM me.</p><p>In addition to today&#39;s discussion, members at my marketplace service received TQI&#39;s Quantamental analysis, capital allocation plan, and risk management strategy for Microsoft [along with a special merger arbitrage trade idea].</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.Rising interest rates and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151063859","content_text":"SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are set to pressure corporate earnings, and while Microsoft's numbers might hold up better than most peers, it is not immune to the economy.In recent weeks, Microsoft's insiders (including the CEO & CFO) have been cashing out of the stock in a big way. Is it time for retail investors to sell too?While Microsoft is a great company, its premium valuation is a recipe for single-digit returns over the next five years.For investors comfortable with mid-single digit returns in exchange for greater stability, holding MSFT at current levels is ok (but far from ideal). I rate MSFT 'Neutral' at $252 per share.IntroductionOn Tuesday, Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock got hammered down along with broader markets [S&P 500 down ~4%, Nasdaq-100 down 5%+] on concerns regarding a hotter-than-expected CPI print (8.3% in August 2022), and more so due to rising expectations of a ~75-100 bps rate hike from the FED at its September meeting next week.FinvizCNBCAfter this latest price drop, Microsoft is staring at the prospect of retesting its 52-week lows of ~$240, last seen in June 2022. In my recent notes on Microsoft, I have rated the stock 'Neutral / Avoid', citing the sheer lack of risk premium. Furthermore, we have discussed the potential of a ~30-50% decline in Microsoft's stock due to an inevitable normalization of trading multiples, given the current macroeconomic environment.In today's note, I would like to draw your attention to the ongoing insider selling, rising macro risk, worsening business fundamentals, and Microsoft's excessive absolute valuation.Insiders Are Selling Hand Over FistBack in November 2021, Satya Nadella (Microsoft's CEO) sold roughly half of his Microsoft shares for around ~$340, which as of today, looks like him nailing the exact top on the stock.NasdaqAnd then, since late August, Satya has been at it again, selling ~167K shares [disposing of all of his latest stock grants and some additional shares]. Moreover, Amy Hood (Microsoft's CFO) joined in the fun last week and sold many of her shares, cashing out millions of dollars.NasdaqWith C-suite executives cashing out, it is fair to ask, \"Is it time for retail investors to get out of Microsoft?\" Let's find out.Where Do We Stand And How Much Lower Could MSFT Go From Here?After fading its latest rally, Microsoft's stock is hovering right above its June lows of ~$240 per share. Over the last year or so, Microsoft's trading multiples have been normalizing. With a P/E ratio of ~26x, Microsoft stock is far from cheap, especially because in a high-inflation environment, index multiples tend to go far lower than historical P/E averages of 15-20x. Even if Microsoft were to simply go down to 20x P/E, that would mean a 25-30% correction in the stock (& that is only mean reversion).YChartsFurthermore, if Microsoft's earnings moderate over the next few quarters like they generally do at this stage of the cycle for technology companies, its stock may have much more downside risk than what has been priced at this moment. During the 2007-09 recession, Microsoft's FCF yield rose to ~11%, and if we were to end up going that high, the stock would probably need to fall by more than 50%.YChartsComparing Microsoft's free cash flow yield (of 3.43%) with treasury rates (>3.5%), you can easily see the lack of risk premium attached to Microsoft's stock, i.e., the market is telling us that Microsoft is safer than treasuries. While this may be true to some extent, Microsoft's business is not immune from broader macro, and it certainly doesn't have the liberty of printing money.Treasury Rates on 13th September 2022 (CNBC)Persistent inflation, surging interest rates, and a potential economic recession are set to bring several headwinds for Microsoft, and the stock may continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. Let's discuss some business fundamentals of Microsoft to ensure we are on the same page here.Business Fundamentals Are DeterioratingMicrosoft's latest quarterly results met street expectations. Since these numbers have been widely discussed, we won't explore them today. Rather, I think we should look at the bigger picture by zooming out a little. In Q4 FY22, Microsoft's revenue growth rate continued decelerating, with operating margins also decreasing.YChartsFor FY-23, Microsoft's management expects double-digit growth in revenues and operating income [despite operating margins projected to remain flat]. While this guidance seemed to have buoyed analysts and investors alike [with MSFT's stock rocketing up to $290 per share], I don't think these numbers would be achieved in a recession [that's looking likelier by the day]. Back in 2007-09 (during the global financial crisis), Microsoft's revenues and operating margins declined significantly, which shows that Microsoft is not immune to the economy.Microsoft FY2023 OutlookMicrosoft FY2023 OutlookDuring Microsoft's Q4-FY2022 earnings call, the company's CEO and CFO made it clear that the tech giant is not immune to the macroeconomic environment and that its FY2023 guidance was based on the current macro environment. Here's an excerpt from the latest earnings call transcript (the must-read parts are highlighted in bold):MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein:Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter. I'd like to follow up a little bit on that.With all the concerns about macro recession, everyone's trying to understand how cloud, and from Microsoft's case more specifically, IaaS, PaaS operates in a slowdown recession. How do you think about Azure's resiliency? How do you think about Azure's exposure to advertising business, consumer Internet and SMB if we do see a real recession?Thank you.SATYA NADELLA:Yeah, maybe I'll start, and Amy, feel free to add.I mean, overall, we're not immune to what's happening in the macro broadly, right, to Keith's question and your question Mark. I think I'd say I'd start there, because whether it's on the demand side with consumers or SMBs, I think Amy in her remarks talked about some of that, even in our results in the quarter. But what's happening with it in Azure, though, is in some sense, businesses trying to deal with the overall macroeconomic situation and trying to make sure that they can do more with less.For example, moving to the cloud is the best way to shape your spend with demand uncertainty, right, because in fact, if anything, one of the things that we're seeing is an increased shift towards the cloud, and then of course, optimizing your bill. We are incenting even our own field to ensure that the bills for our customers come down. And that, in fact, even shows up in some of the volatility in our Azure numbers, because that's one of the big benefits of the public cloud. And that's why I think, coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner, because it does act as that deflationary force.So, that's sort of what we are seeing in the Azure numbers. We will be exposed to consumer driven businesses and SMBs, but at some level, our strength as a company is much stronger in the core commercial. So, I think that will do fine there.The other one is also people building new applications that are completely new frontier. I mean, there are two numbers that I talked about. One is the triple digit growth in Cosmos DB, and triple digit growth in Container App Services. You take those two things, and you say, what are people doing? People are writing applications at a completely different frontier of efficiency, which is a cloud-native, serverless, container-based types of applications.And so, to me, that's another way for you to make sure that your IT spend goes a long way in a time like this.BRENT THILL, Jefferies:Amy, great to hear the double-digit guidance. I guess many are askingare you embedding a worsening macroenvironment or a similar environment that we're in to get to that type of growth?AMY HOOD:Thanks, Brent.As I said, it's trying to take into account the current macroenvironment.And as I said, I took what we saw in June, applied it as best we thought we could through the course of the fiscal year. And if you think about how the… and if you try to look over the course of the year with some of my comments, you'd say, okay, in H1 vs. H2, I would point out three things that changed a bit over the course of that time.First, of course, if we're talking about USD, it would be FX. It's a bigger headwind in H1; it's less of a headwind in H2. The second thing I would point to would be OpEx. As we've talked about in H1, we've obviously added .2% headcount this quarter. We still have 11,000 hires that we have started in Q1. We've still got Nuance and Xandr in acquisitions, and we anniversary, a lot of that as we focus our hiring and focus on the productivity of all the hiring we've done over the past year, and then the OEM comparables obviously get a lot different when you get from H1 into H2. And so, as you're trying to think about the shape, and how did I consider it, I sort of took those things into account, thought about the trends we've been seeing in June and applied them as best we can.Source:Microsoft Q4-FY2022 Earnings Call TranscriptWhile we might very well be in a recession already, enterprise spending is generally the last shoe to drop in a cycle, and we have not seen any signs of that so far. The FED is tightening into a slowing economy due to red-hot inflation; however, the probability of a recession is rising rapidly. This is why I fear that Microsoft may fail to meet its FY2023 guidance. I may be wrong here, but it is pretty clear that Microsoft's business could come under pressure if the macro worsens from here, which is very likely to happen.Microsoft's balance sheet is truly a fortress with ~$55B of net cash; however, things may change quickly if the $68.7B deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) goes through in the next 9-12 months (as per timeline). After this deal closes, Microsoft would still have ~$35-40B in cash (negative net cash, unless the company reduces its capital return program). And this cash position, combined with free cash flow generation, make Microsoft's dividend safe. However, if operating margins were to decline a lot, we may see a temporary suspension of Microsoft's stock buyback program.YChartsOverall, Microsoft is a fantastic company, and the fact that it is growing at this scale is truly astounding. With that said, Microsoft's business fundamentals are deteriorating - slowing revenue growth, flattening operating margins, and a worsening balance sheet. Considering all of this information, let's evaluate Microsoft's absolute fair value and 5-yr expected returns.Microsoft's Fair Value And Expected ReturnsThe exercise starts with simple data collection for inputs such as stock price, TTM revenue, and share count. To approximate the future free cash flows for Microsoft, I have used a two-step growth model: 10% CAGR growth for the first five years, followed by terminal growth of 3% per year.As you know, Microsoft is highly profitable, with operating margins consistently above 30% over the years, and hence, assuming a 30% optimized FCF margin at maturity is quite reasonable in my view. Despite Microsoft spending big on Activision, I think the tech giant will persist with its shareholder-friendly capital return policies.Lastly, I used a 10% discount rate (required IRR) for Microsoft, which happens to be the next best alternative (S&P 500's historical return) for long-term investors.TQI Valuation Model (Author)According to our valuation model, Microsoft's fair value is ~$156.27 per share (or $1.17T). With the stock trading at ~$252 per share, I think it is still trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value.Predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to stay depressed, higher equity multiples would stay here. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. Since Microsoft's scale and quality of business deserves a premium, I assigned a base case exit P/FCF multiple of ~25x.TQI Valuation Model (Author)By 2027, Microsoft could grow from ~$252 to ~$384 at a CAGR of 8.8%. Since Microsoft's expected returns fall short of our required IRR of 10%, it is not a buy. However, long-term investors who are willing to accept single-digit returns in exchange for greater stability (lower volatility) can continue to hold the stock.Remember, the intrinsic value and price targets we determined in this exercise are approximations of my expectations for Microsoft's business, which may differ materially in reality down the line. The purpose of performing this exercise is not to nail down the precise valuation of a business; it is to generate a good approximation of what a business can do for us. If we find that the current odds are favorable for long-term investors (us) even with conservative assumptions [& margin of safety], then and only then, we take a long position!As an analyst and an investor, I always strive to generate the best possible approximation for all companies under research. Despite all the due diligence I perform, I could be wrong, and this is why I always try to buy stocks with a margin of safety (at a discount to intrinsic value).Concluding ThoughtsDespite being down more than ~28% from its 2021 highs, Microsoft's stock continues to trade at a steep premium to its intrinsic value. With revenue and operating income growth slowing down in the face of a potential economic recession, Microsoft looks ripe for further normalization in trading multiples.Another 12% price decline and Microsoft would be trading at multiples last seen during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. However, a mover of this magnitude may not be enough, as inflation remains red hot, and the FED continues tightening its monetary policy despite the rising likelihood of an economic recession. As we saw today, Microsoft is not immune to macro, and any downward earnings revisions or guidance cuts could lead to a big sell-off in Microsoft's stock. On an absolute value basis, I believe that Microsoft is worth ~$156.27 per share, which means there may be more pain to come for MSFT shareholders. An old adage in investing goes like this - \"Don't Fight The Fed\" - and this quote is apt for today's market conditions. With important insiders also selling shares of Microsoft, I find it really, really hard to justify a new purchase at these elevated multiples. That said, long-term DGI investors could continue to 'Hold' at this price. If Microsoft gets down to ~20x P/E, I will look to add more shares at that time.Key Takeaway: I rate Microsoft a 'Neutral / Avoid' at $252.Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below or DM me.In addition to today's discussion, members at my marketplace service received TQI's Quantamental analysis, capital allocation plan, and risk management strategy for Microsoft [along with a special merger arbitrage trade idea].","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092695367,"gmtCreate":1644602457709,"gmtModify":1676533945458,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092695367","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888199263,"gmtCreate":1631451290652,"gmtModify":1676530550102,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>give a like for AMC!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>give a like for AMC!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$give a like for AMC!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888199263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894058347,"gmtCreate":1628779054189,"gmtModify":1676529853144,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>I'm still HODL","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>I'm still HODL","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$I'm still HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894058347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178151898,"gmtCreate":1626793329014,"gmtModify":1703765376298,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>please close around 38","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>please close around 38","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$please close around 38","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178151898","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097443122,"gmtCreate":1645541303496,"gmtModify":1676534037588,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you can do it!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you can do it!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you can do it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097443122","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884207032,"gmtCreate":1631890987926,"gmtModify":1676530664043,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Liked","listText":"Liked","text":"Liked","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884207032","repostId":"2168788835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2168788835","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631890618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168788835?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-17 22:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168788835","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's hard to believe these two brand names and market leaders can be bought for less than $20 per share.","content":"<p>If you only had $20 to invest in a stock, where would you put that money? Of course, you could invest in fractional shares of a much more expensive stock, but if you wanted to buy full shares in a cheap stock and just sit back and watch it grow over the next 10 to 20 years or more, what would be your best option?</p>\n<p>Stocks in that price range are typically small companies, but there are also some larger companies with share prices under $20 that are priced low for a reason -- maybe they are new to the market or lost value for some reason.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37119bd078774e47a377b9118a2567b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>Startups or small, unproven companies in high-flying industries are tempting investments for their potential; but if I only had $20 to invest in a stock, I'd focus on established companies that have track records of success and a strategic focus that gives them an advantage, namely <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">Rocket Companies</a></b> (NYSE:RKT) and <b>Ford</b> (NYSE:F).</p>\n<h2>Rocket, a great value at about $17 per share</h2>\n<p>Rocket Companies has not set the stock market on fire since its high-profile IPO last August. It started trading at around $18 per share and has fluctuated wildly, jumping up to a high of $41 in March before plummeting back down to its current price of around $17 per share. Year-to-date it's down around 12% through Sept. 13.</p>\n<p>While the market has been ambivalent toward Rocket, there is a lot to like about this stock in the long term. For starters, Rocket is the largest home mortgage lender in the country; it had a market share of about 9% at the end of last year.</p>\n<p>It had a record year in 2020 in terms of loan originations, and that may have hurt Rocket's stock price this year as it has not matched 2020's ridiculously high numbers, which were fueled by a surge in refinancings from the historically low interest rates. But still, the numbers are strong, as Rocket did $84 billion in closed loan volume in the second quarter, twice the amount done in 2019 and more than all of 2018. Rocket CEO Jay Farner expects a strong second half and anticipates that 2021 will exceed 2020's record amount of mortgage originations, he said on the second-quarter earnings call.</p>\n<p>Rocket's big advantage is its technology. It was among the first mortgage companies to adapt an all-digital platform for obtaining loans and it continues to invest heavily in that platform. It has allowed Rocket to reduce its overhead and increase its efficiency as measured by a gain-on-sale margin that is higher than average. It's a competitive space, prone to market fluctuations, but Rocket has carved out its place as a leader and continues to gain market share.</p>\n<h2>Ford, at $13 per share, is banking on an EV future</h2>\n<p>Last spring, Ford was trading at below $5 per share; its recovery waylaid by the pandemic. But since then, the stock price has almost tripled to $13 per share, and the automaker has a bright future, illuminated by its focus on electric vehicles (EVs).</p>\n<p>Ford plans to invest about $30 billion in EVs and battery cells by 2025 as it accelerates its transition to EVs. The automaker plans to come out with 30 new EV models in the next five years, and by 2030 it expects to have 40% of its sales come from EVs, Ford President and CEO Jim Farley said on the second-quarter earnings call.</p>\n<p>The Mustang Mach-E, which came out last year, is the second-best-selling electric SUV. It, along with the F-150 Hybrid Powerboost, drove a 67% increase in EV sales in August. In 2022, EV versions of two of its most popular vehicles, the Ford F-150 truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, and the Transit van, the best-selling van, will be introduced. The fully electric F-150 Lightning already has 130,000 reservations.</p>\n<p>Ford is incredibly cheap right now, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about six and a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of around 0.12. With EVs as its catalyst, Ford should continue to grow from this low valuation through this decade and beyond.</p>\n<p>Investors would be smart to take advantage of this opportunity to buy these two great brands at great prices. Both Ford and Rocket are cheap and undervalued, and they have the potential for steady, long-term growth.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-17 22:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/17/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-with-20-right-now-and-h/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you only had $20 to invest in a stock, where would you put that money? Of course, you could invest in fractional shares of a much more expensive stock, but if you wanted to buy full shares in a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/17/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-with-20-right-now-and-h/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","RKT":"Rocket Companies"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/17/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-with-20-right-now-and-h/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168788835","content_text":"If you only had $20 to invest in a stock, where would you put that money? Of course, you could invest in fractional shares of a much more expensive stock, but if you wanted to buy full shares in a cheap stock and just sit back and watch it grow over the next 10 to 20 years or more, what would be your best option?\nStocks in that price range are typically small companies, but there are also some larger companies with share prices under $20 that are priced low for a reason -- maybe they are new to the market or lost value for some reason.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nStartups or small, unproven companies in high-flying industries are tempting investments for their potential; but if I only had $20 to invest in a stock, I'd focus on established companies that have track records of success and a strategic focus that gives them an advantage, namely Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT) and Ford (NYSE:F).\nRocket, a great value at about $17 per share\nRocket Companies has not set the stock market on fire since its high-profile IPO last August. It started trading at around $18 per share and has fluctuated wildly, jumping up to a high of $41 in March before plummeting back down to its current price of around $17 per share. Year-to-date it's down around 12% through Sept. 13.\nWhile the market has been ambivalent toward Rocket, there is a lot to like about this stock in the long term. For starters, Rocket is the largest home mortgage lender in the country; it had a market share of about 9% at the end of last year.\nIt had a record year in 2020 in terms of loan originations, and that may have hurt Rocket's stock price this year as it has not matched 2020's ridiculously high numbers, which were fueled by a surge in refinancings from the historically low interest rates. But still, the numbers are strong, as Rocket did $84 billion in closed loan volume in the second quarter, twice the amount done in 2019 and more than all of 2018. Rocket CEO Jay Farner expects a strong second half and anticipates that 2021 will exceed 2020's record amount of mortgage originations, he said on the second-quarter earnings call.\nRocket's big advantage is its technology. It was among the first mortgage companies to adapt an all-digital platform for obtaining loans and it continues to invest heavily in that platform. It has allowed Rocket to reduce its overhead and increase its efficiency as measured by a gain-on-sale margin that is higher than average. It's a competitive space, prone to market fluctuations, but Rocket has carved out its place as a leader and continues to gain market share.\nFord, at $13 per share, is banking on an EV future\nLast spring, Ford was trading at below $5 per share; its recovery waylaid by the pandemic. But since then, the stock price has almost tripled to $13 per share, and the automaker has a bright future, illuminated by its focus on electric vehicles (EVs).\nFord plans to invest about $30 billion in EVs and battery cells by 2025 as it accelerates its transition to EVs. The automaker plans to come out with 30 new EV models in the next five years, and by 2030 it expects to have 40% of its sales come from EVs, Ford President and CEO Jim Farley said on the second-quarter earnings call.\nThe Mustang Mach-E, which came out last year, is the second-best-selling electric SUV. It, along with the F-150 Hybrid Powerboost, drove a 67% increase in EV sales in August. In 2022, EV versions of two of its most popular vehicles, the Ford F-150 truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, and the Transit van, the best-selling van, will be introduced. The fully electric F-150 Lightning already has 130,000 reservations.\nFord is incredibly cheap right now, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about six and a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of around 0.12. With EVs as its catalyst, Ford should continue to grow from this low valuation through this decade and beyond.\nInvestors would be smart to take advantage of this opportunity to buy these two great brands at great prices. Both Ford and Rocket are cheap and undervalued, and they have the potential for steady, long-term growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034713906,"gmtCreate":1647962393316,"gmtModify":1676534285720,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>keep going!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>keep going!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$keep going!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034713906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034610061,"gmtCreate":1647873195925,"gmtModify":1676534274304,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>go go go!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>go go go!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$go go go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034610061","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095760327,"gmtCreate":1644995175370,"gmtModify":1676533984578,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095760327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}