IvanKHS personal page - To The Moon

IvanKHS

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2021-07-08

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$Give me a "Like", if you think tonight will be good.

2022-02-04

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$still holding for you.

2022-01-24

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$No way I'm going to sell, be it rocket up or rocket down.

2021-09-19

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$give me a like for Green!

2022-03-02

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my hope still is you!

2022-02-19

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$forever with you ♥!

2021-08-28

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$pls like, cause I'm holding

2022-01-04

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$still have high hope for you!

2021-08-22

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$please give a like to AMC

2022-02-25

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$👍

2022-09-15

GIVE a like

Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More

2022-02-12

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!

2021-09-12

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$give a like for AMC!

2021-08-12

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$I'm still HODL

2021-07-20

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$please close around 38

2022-02-22

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you can do it!

2021-09-17

Liked

The Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever

2022-03-22

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$keep going!

2022-03-21

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$go go go!

2022-02-16

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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time to buy","listText":"Gold time to buy","text":"Gold time to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9962535509","repostId":"1141024397","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141024397","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669800806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141024397?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-30 17:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Co-Founder Henry Xia Resigns As Board Executive Director","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141024397","media":"CnEVPost","summary":"Henry Xia, co-founder and president of XPeng Motors, resigned as an executive director of the compan","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Henry Xia, co-founder and president of XPeng Motors, resigned as an executive director of the company&#39;s board of directors effective November 30, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement today.</p><p>This is due to XPeng&#39;s recent organizational restructuring and personal matters, the announcement said.</p><p>Mr. Xia confirmed that he has no disagreement with the board and that the XPeng board thanked him for his contribution during his tenure as executive director, the announcement said.</p><p>XPeng&#39;s current board consists of seven members, including one executive director, three non-executive directors and three independent non-executive directors, according to a separate announcement.</p><p>On October 21, local media Jiemian cited sources as saying that XPeng was undergoing an organizational restructuring, with the biggest change being that it would move to a business unit-based management structure to improve the previously overly centralized structure that had dragged down operational efficiency.</p><p>The immediate reason for XPeng&#39;s organizational restructuring is the problems with the G9 launch -- complex and incomprehensible product SKUs, product planning divorced from user needs and marketing failures, Jiemian&#39;s report said, citing a source familiar with the matter.</p><p>He Xiaopeng, the company&#39;s chairman and CEO, hopes the move will lead to an overall improvement in previously overly centralized management, reduce communication costs and get close to users to understand real user needs, the report said.</p><p>In a November 1 statement announcing XPeng&#39;s October delivery figures, Mr. He confirmed that he had recently made organizational changes to the company.</p><p>&#34;I&#39;ve recently optimized our organizational structures and am confident that we are better aligned with customer demands and market trends with our differentiated Smart EV products,&#34; Mr. He said at the time.</p><p>On November 8, Cailian reported that XPeng&#39;s organizational structure isnearing completion, citing sources familiar with the matter.</p><p>XPeng delivered 5,101 vehicles in October, down 39.76 percent from 8,468 in September and down 49.68 percent from 10,138 in the same month last year.</p><p>The company will report its third-quarter earnings later today, and its November delivery figures are expected to be known tomorrow.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Co-Founder Henry Xia Resigns As Board Executive Director</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Co-Founder Henry Xia Resigns As Board Executive Director\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-30 17:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/30/xpeng-henry-xia-resigns-as-board-executive-director/><strong>CnEVPost</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Henry Xia, co-founder and president of XPeng Motors, resigned as an executive director of the company's board of directors effective November 30, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/30/xpeng-henry-xia-resigns-as-board-executive-director/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://cnevpost.com/2022/11/30/xpeng-henry-xia-resigns-as-board-executive-director/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141024397","content_text":"Henry Xia, co-founder and president of XPeng Motors, resigned as an executive director of the company's board of directors effective November 30, according to a Hong Kong Stock Exchange announcement today.This is due to XPeng's recent organizational restructuring and personal matters, the announcement said.Mr. Xia confirmed that he has no disagreement with the board and that the XPeng board thanked him for his contribution during his tenure as executive director, the announcement said.XPeng's current board consists of seven members, including one executive director, three non-executive directors and three independent non-executive directors, according to a separate announcement.On October 21, local media Jiemian cited sources as saying that XPeng was undergoing an organizational restructuring, with the biggest change being that it would move to a business unit-based management structure to improve the previously overly centralized structure that had dragged down operational efficiency.The immediate reason for XPeng's organizational restructuring is the problems with the G9 launch -- complex and incomprehensible product SKUs, product planning divorced from user needs and marketing failures, Jiemian's report said, citing a source familiar with the matter.He Xiaopeng, the company's chairman and CEO, hopes the move will lead to an overall improvement in previously overly centralized management, reduce communication costs and get close to users to understand real user needs, the report said.In a November 1 statement announcing XPeng's October delivery figures, Mr. He confirmed that he had recently made organizational changes to the company.\"I've recently optimized our organizational structures and am confident that we are better aligned with customer demands and market trends with our differentiated Smart EV products,\" Mr. He said at the time.On November 8, Cailian reported that XPeng's organizational structure isnearing completion, citing sources familiar with the matter.XPeng delivered 5,101 vehicles in October, down 39.76 percent from 8,468 in September and down 49.68 percent from 10,138 in the same month last year.The company will report its third-quarter earnings later today, and its November delivery figures are expected to be known tomorrow.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934212761,"gmtCreate":1663254169753,"gmtModify":1676537237768,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GIVE a like","listText":"GIVE a like","text":"GIVE a like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934212761","repostId":"1151063859","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151063859","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663252348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151063859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151063859","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>With slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft&#39;s stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.</li><li>Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are set to pressure corporate earnings, and while Microsoft&#39;s numbers might hold up better than most peers, it is not immune to the economy.</li><li>In recent weeks, Microsoft&#39;s insiders (including the CEO &amp; CFO) have been cashing out of the stock in a big way. Is it time for retail investors to sell too?</li><li>While Microsoft is a great company, its premium valuation is a recipe for single-digit returns over the next five years.</li><li>For investors comfortable with mid-single digit returns in exchange for greater stability, holding MSFT at current levels is ok (but far from ideal). I rate MSFT &#39;Neutral&#39; at $252 per share.</li></ul><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>On Tuesday, Microsoft&#39;s (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock got hammered down along with broader markets [S&amp;P 500 down ~4%, Nasdaq-100 down 5%+] on concerns regarding a hotter-than-expected CPI print (8.3% in August 2022), and more so due to rising expectations of a ~75-100 bps rate hike from the FED at its September meeting next week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdd9276850280fde49f1571850b8dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finviz</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8b481a1dbe9f80d2dd6338e7929cf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNBC</p><p>After this latest price drop, Microsoft is staring at the prospect of retesting its 52-week lows of ~$240, last seen in June 2022. In my recent notes on Microsoft, I have rated the stock &#39;Neutral / Avoid&#39;, citing the sheer lack of risk premium. Furthermore, we have discussed the potential of a ~30-50% decline in Microsoft&#39;s stock due to an inevitable normalization of trading multiples, given the current macroeconomic environment.</p><p>In today&#39;s note, I would like to draw your attention to the ongoing insider selling, rising macro risk, worsening business fundamentals, and Microsoft&#39;s excessive absolute valuation.</p><p><b>Insiders Are Selling Hand Over Fist</b></p><p>Back in November 2021, Satya Nadella (Microsoft&#39;s CEO) sold roughly half of his Microsoft shares for around ~$340, which as of today, looks like him nailing the exact top on the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b598b689ee9280c8a82e6fbb6c4b855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nasdaq</p><p>And then, since late August, Satya has been at it again, selling ~167K shares [disposing of all of his latest stock grants and some additional shares]. Moreover, Amy Hood (Microsoft&#39;s CFO) joined in the fun last week and sold many of her shares, cashing out millions of dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01da63e92c7af417306e354c94158a77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nasdaq</p><p>With C-suite executives cashing out, it is fair to ask, &#34;Is it time for retail investors to get out of Microsoft?&#34; Let&#39;s find out.</p><p>Where Do We Stand And How Much Lower Could MSFT Go From Here?</p><p>After fading its latest rally, Microsoft&#39;s stock is hovering right above its June lows of ~$240 per share. Over the last year or so, Microsoft&#39;s trading multiples have been normalizing. With a P/E ratio of ~26x, Microsoft stock is far from cheap, especially because in a high-inflation environment, index multiples tend to go far lower than historical P/E averages of 15-20x. Even if Microsoft were to simply go down to 20x P/E, that would mean a 25-30% correction in the stock (&amp; that is only mean reversion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c8ec23056c1861a50cff72e4a7ba0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Furthermore, if Microsoft&#39;s earnings moderate over the next few quarters like they generally do at this stage of the cycle for technology companies, its stock may have much more downside risk than what has been priced at this moment. During the 2007-09 recession, Microsoft&#39;s FCF yield rose to ~11%, and if we were to end up going that high, the stock would probably need to fall by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519927c5ff03fa1e8ccaa8196fd425f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Comparing Microsoft&#39;s free cash flow yield (of 3.43%) with treasury rates (&gt;3.5%), you can easily see the lack of risk premium attached to Microsoft&#39;s stock, i.e., the market is telling us that Microsoft is safer than treasuries. While this may be true to some extent, Microsoft&#39;s business is not immune from broader macro, and it certainly doesn&#39;t have the liberty of printing money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0acf3faa059e9652f28ca08cbb4c6c75\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Treasury Rates on 13th September 2022 (CNBC)</p><p>Persistent inflation, surging interest rates, and a potential economic recession are set to bring several headwinds for Microsoft, and the stock may continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. Let&#39;s discuss some business fundamentals of Microsoft to ensure we are on the same page here.</p><p><b>Business Fundamentals Are Deteriorating</b></p><p>Microsoft&#39;s latest quarterly results met street expectations. Since these numbers have been widely discussed, we won&#39;t explore them today. Rather, I think we should look at the bigger picture by zooming out a little. In Q4 FY22, Microsoft&#39;s revenue growth rate continued decelerating, with operating margins also decreasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028e0d5bd23551eda76fe1fd5b5f8a4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>For FY-23, Microsoft&#39;s management expects double-digit growth in revenues and operating income [despite operating margins projected to remain flat]. While this guidance seemed to have buoyed analysts and investors alike [with MSFT&#39;s stock rocketing up to $290 per share], I don&#39;t think these numbers would be achieved in a recession [that&#39;s looking likelier by the day]. Back in 2007-09 (during the global financial crisis), Microsoft&#39;s revenues and operating margins declined significantly, which shows that Microsoft is not immune to the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ccf2abbbf515944557a249d5502482\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft FY2023 Outlook</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3bff8de6f97517863566aac7a80521\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft FY2023 Outlook</p><p>During Microsoft&#39;s Q4-FY2022 earnings call, the company&#39;s CEO and CFO made it clear that the tech giant is not immune to the macroeconomic environment and that its FY2023 guidance was based on the current macro environment. Here&#39;s an excerpt from the latest earnings call transcript (the must-read parts are highlighted in bold):</p><blockquote><b>MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein:</b>Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter. I&#39;d like to follow up a little bit on that.<b>With all the concerns about macro recession, everyone&#39;s trying to understand how cloud, and from Microsoft&#39;s case more specifically, IaaS, PaaS operates in a slowdown recession. How do you think about Azure&#39;s resiliency? How do you think about Azure&#39;s exposure to advertising business, consumer Internet and SMB if we do see a real recession?</b>Thank you.</blockquote><blockquote><b>SATYA NADELLA:</b>Yeah, maybe I&#39;ll start, and Amy, feel free to add.<b>I mean, overall, we&#39;re not immune to what&#39;s happening in the macro broadly</b>, right, to Keith&#39;s question and your question Mark. I think I&#39;d say I&#39;d start there, because whether it&#39;s on the demand side with consumers or SMBs, I think Amy in her remarks talked about some of that, even in our results in the quarter. But what&#39;s happening with it in Azure, though, is in some sense, businesses trying to deal with the overall macroeconomic situation and trying to make sure that they can do more with less.</blockquote><blockquote>For example, moving to the cloud is the best way to shape your spend with demand uncertainty, right, because in fact, if anything, one of the things that we&#39;re seeing is an increased shift towards the cloud, and then of course, optimizing your bill. We are incenting even our own field to ensure that the bills for our customers come down. And that, in fact, even shows up in some of the volatility in our Azure numbers, because that&#39;s one of the big benefits of the public cloud. And that&#39;s why I think, coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner, because it does act as that deflationary force.</blockquote><blockquote>So, that&#39;s sort of what we are seeing in the Azure numbers. We will be exposed to consumer driven businesses and SMBs, but at some level, our strength as a company is much stronger in the core commercial. So, I think that will do fine there.</blockquote><blockquote>The other one is also people building new applications that are completely new frontier. I mean, there are two numbers that I talked about. One is the triple digit growth in Cosmos DB, and triple digit growth in Container App Services. You take those two things, and you say, what are people doing? People are writing applications at a completely different frontier of efficiency, which is a cloud-native, serverless, container-based types of applications.</blockquote><blockquote>And so, to me, that&#39;s another way for you to make sure that your IT spend goes a long way in a time like this.</blockquote><blockquote><b>BRENT THILL, Jefferies:</b>Amy, great to hear the double-digit guidance. I guess many are asking<b>are you embedding a worsening macroenvironment or a similar environment that we&#39;re in to get to that type of growth?</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>AMY HOOD:</b>Thanks, Brent.<b>As I said, it&#39;s trying to take into account the current macroenvironment.</b>And as I said, I took what we saw in June, applied it as best we thought we could through the course of the fiscal year. And if you think about how the… and if you try to look over the course of the year with some of my comments, you&#39;d say, okay, in H1 vs. H2, I would point out three things that changed a bit over the course of that time.</blockquote><blockquote>First, of course, if we&#39;re talking about USD, it would be FX. It&#39;s a bigger headwind in H1; it&#39;s less of a headwind in H2. The second thing I would point to would be OpEx. As we&#39;ve talked about in H1, we&#39;ve obviously added .2% headcount this quarter. We still have 11,000 hires that we have started in Q1. We&#39;ve still got Nuance and Xandr in acquisitions, and we anniversary, a lot of that as we focus our hiring and focus on the productivity of all the hiring we&#39;ve done over the past year, and then the OEM comparables obviously get a lot different when you get from H1 into H2. And so, as you&#39;re trying to think about the shape, and how did I consider it, I sort of took those things into account, thought about the trends we&#39;ve been seeing in June and applied them as best we can.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Microsoft Q4-FY2022 Earnings Call Transcript</blockquote><p>While we might very well be in a recession already, enterprise spending is generally the last shoe to drop in a cycle, and we have not seen any signs of that so far. The FED is tightening into a slowing economy due to red-hot inflation; however, the probability of a recession is rising rapidly. This is why I fear that Microsoft may fail to meet its FY2023 guidance. I may be wrong here, but it is pretty clear that Microsoft&#39;s business could come under pressure if the macro worsens from here, which is very likely to happen.</p><p>Microsoft&#39;s balance sheet is truly a fortress with ~$55B of net cash; however, things may change quickly if the $68.7B deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) goes through in the next 9-12 months (as per timeline). After this deal closes, Microsoft would still have ~$35-40B in cash (negative net cash, unless the company reduces its capital return program). And this cash position, combined with free cash flow generation, make Microsoft&#39;s dividend safe. However, if operating margins were to decline a lot, we may see a temporary suspension of Microsoft&#39;s stock buyback program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1815a464e327b1ed52ae0a6187a0c010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Overall, Microsoft is a fantastic company, and the fact that it is growing at this scale is truly astounding. With that said, Microsoft&#39;s business fundamentals are deteriorating - slowing revenue growth, flattening operating margins, and a worsening balance sheet. Considering all of this information, let&#39;s evaluate Microsoft&#39;s absolute fair value and 5-yr expected returns.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p><p>The exercise starts with simple data collection for inputs such as stock price, TTM revenue, and share count. To approximate the future free cash flows for Microsoft, I have used a two-step growth model: 10% CAGR growth for the first five years, followed by terminal growth of 3% per year.</p><p>As you know, Microsoft is highly profitable, with operating margins consistently above 30% over the years, and hence, assuming a 30% optimized FCF margin at maturity is quite reasonable in my view. Despite Microsoft spending big on Activision, I think the tech giant will persist with its shareholder-friendly capital return policies.</p><p>Lastly, I used a 10% discount rate (required IRR) for Microsoft, which happens to be the next best alternative (S&amp;P 500&#39;s historical return) for long-term investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0470579af9dcb3b1c3c3b2d8e3aff4a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TQI Valuation Model (Author)</p><p>According to our valuation model, Microsoft&#39;s fair value is ~$156.27 per share (or $1.17T). With the stock trading at ~$252 per share, I think it is still trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value.</p><p>Predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to stay depressed, higher equity multiples would stay here. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. Since Microsoft&#39;s scale and quality of business deserves a premium, I assigned a base case exit P/FCF multiple of ~25x.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf57982886a90b915f9411d20ae90c46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TQI Valuation Model (Author)</p><p>By 2027, Microsoft could grow from ~$252 to ~$384 at a CAGR of 8.8%. Since Microsoft&#39;s expected returns fall short of our required IRR of 10%, it is not a buy. However, long-term investors who are willing to accept single-digit returns in exchange for greater stability (lower volatility) can continue to hold the stock.</p><p>Remember, the intrinsic value and price targets we determined in this exercise are approximations of my expectations for Microsoft&#39;s business, which may differ materially in reality down the line. The purpose of performing this exercise is not to nail down the precise valuation of a business; it is to generate a good approximation of what a business can do for us. If we find that the current odds are favorable for long-term investors (us) even with conservative assumptions [&amp; margin of safety], then and only then, we take a long position!</p><p>As an analyst and an investor, I always strive to generate the best possible approximation for all companies under research. Despite all the due diligence I perform, I could be wrong, and this is why I always try to buy stocks with a margin of safety (at a discount to intrinsic value).</p><p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p>Despite being down more than ~28% from its 2021 highs, Microsoft&#39;s stock continues to trade at a steep premium to its intrinsic value. With revenue and operating income growth slowing down in the face of a potential economic recession, Microsoft looks ripe for further normalization in trading multiples.</p><p>Another 12% price decline and Microsoft would be trading at multiples last seen during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. However, a mover of this magnitude may not be enough, as inflation remains red hot, and the FED continues tightening its monetary policy despite the rising likelihood of an economic recession. As we saw today, Microsoft is not immune to macro, and any downward earnings revisions or guidance cuts could lead to a big sell-off in Microsoft&#39;s stock. On an absolute value basis, I believe that Microsoft is worth ~$156.27 per share, which means there may be more pain to come for MSFT shareholders. An old adage in investing goes like this - &#34;Don&#39;t Fight The Fed&#34; - and this quote is apt for today&#39;s market conditions. With important insiders also selling shares of Microsoft, I find it really, really hard to justify a new purchase at these elevated multiples. That said, long-term DGI investors could continue to &#39;Hold&#39; at this price. If Microsoft gets down to ~20x P/E, I will look to add more shares at that time.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Microsoft a &#39;Neutral / Avoid&#39; at $252.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below or DM me.</p><p>In addition to today&#39;s discussion, members at my marketplace service received TQI&#39;s Quantamental analysis, capital allocation plan, and risk management strategy for Microsoft [along with a special merger arbitrage trade idea].</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.Rising interest rates and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151063859","content_text":"SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are set to pressure corporate earnings, and while Microsoft's numbers might hold up better than most peers, it is not immune to the economy.In recent weeks, Microsoft's insiders (including the CEO & CFO) have been cashing out of the stock in a big way. Is it time for retail investors to sell too?While Microsoft is a great company, its premium valuation is a recipe for single-digit returns over the next five years.For investors comfortable with mid-single digit returns in exchange for greater stability, holding MSFT at current levels is ok (but far from ideal). I rate MSFT 'Neutral' at $252 per share.IntroductionOn Tuesday, Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock got hammered down along with broader markets [S&P 500 down ~4%, Nasdaq-100 down 5%+] on concerns regarding a hotter-than-expected CPI print (8.3% in August 2022), and more so due to rising expectations of a ~75-100 bps rate hike from the FED at its September meeting next week.FinvizCNBCAfter this latest price drop, Microsoft is staring at the prospect of retesting its 52-week lows of ~$240, last seen in June 2022. In my recent notes on Microsoft, I have rated the stock 'Neutral / Avoid', citing the sheer lack of risk premium. Furthermore, we have discussed the potential of a ~30-50% decline in Microsoft's stock due to an inevitable normalization of trading multiples, given the current macroeconomic environment.In today's note, I would like to draw your attention to the ongoing insider selling, rising macro risk, worsening business fundamentals, and Microsoft's excessive absolute valuation.Insiders Are Selling Hand Over FistBack in November 2021, Satya Nadella (Microsoft's CEO) sold roughly half of his Microsoft shares for around ~$340, which as of today, looks like him nailing the exact top on the stock.NasdaqAnd then, since late August, Satya has been at it again, selling ~167K shares [disposing of all of his latest stock grants and some additional shares]. Moreover, Amy Hood (Microsoft's CFO) joined in the fun last week and sold many of her shares, cashing out millions of dollars.NasdaqWith C-suite executives cashing out, it is fair to ask, \"Is it time for retail investors to get out of Microsoft?\" Let's find out.Where Do We Stand And How Much Lower Could MSFT Go From Here?After fading its latest rally, Microsoft's stock is hovering right above its June lows of ~$240 per share. Over the last year or so, Microsoft's trading multiples have been normalizing. With a P/E ratio of ~26x, Microsoft stock is far from cheap, especially because in a high-inflation environment, index multiples tend to go far lower than historical P/E averages of 15-20x. Even if Microsoft were to simply go down to 20x P/E, that would mean a 25-30% correction in the stock (& that is only mean reversion).YChartsFurthermore, if Microsoft's earnings moderate over the next few quarters like they generally do at this stage of the cycle for technology companies, its stock may have much more downside risk than what has been priced at this moment. During the 2007-09 recession, Microsoft's FCF yield rose to ~11%, and if we were to end up going that high, the stock would probably need to fall by more than 50%.YChartsComparing Microsoft's free cash flow yield (of 3.43%) with treasury rates (>3.5%), you can easily see the lack of risk premium attached to Microsoft's stock, i.e., the market is telling us that Microsoft is safer than treasuries. While this may be true to some extent, Microsoft's business is not immune from broader macro, and it certainly doesn't have the liberty of printing money.Treasury Rates on 13th September 2022 (CNBC)Persistent inflation, surging interest rates, and a potential economic recession are set to bring several headwinds for Microsoft, and the stock may continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. Let's discuss some business fundamentals of Microsoft to ensure we are on the same page here.Business Fundamentals Are DeterioratingMicrosoft's latest quarterly results met street expectations. Since these numbers have been widely discussed, we won't explore them today. Rather, I think we should look at the bigger picture by zooming out a little. In Q4 FY22, Microsoft's revenue growth rate continued decelerating, with operating margins also decreasing.YChartsFor FY-23, Microsoft's management expects double-digit growth in revenues and operating income [despite operating margins projected to remain flat]. While this guidance seemed to have buoyed analysts and investors alike [with MSFT's stock rocketing up to $290 per share], I don't think these numbers would be achieved in a recession [that's looking likelier by the day]. Back in 2007-09 (during the global financial crisis), Microsoft's revenues and operating margins declined significantly, which shows that Microsoft is not immune to the economy.Microsoft FY2023 OutlookMicrosoft FY2023 OutlookDuring Microsoft's Q4-FY2022 earnings call, the company's CEO and CFO made it clear that the tech giant is not immune to the macroeconomic environment and that its FY2023 guidance was based on the current macro environment. Here's an excerpt from the latest earnings call transcript (the must-read parts are highlighted in bold):MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein:Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter. I'd like to follow up a little bit on that.With all the concerns about macro recession, everyone's trying to understand how cloud, and from Microsoft's case more specifically, IaaS, PaaS operates in a slowdown recession. How do you think about Azure's resiliency? How do you think about Azure's exposure to advertising business, consumer Internet and SMB if we do see a real recession?Thank you.SATYA NADELLA:Yeah, maybe I'll start, and Amy, feel free to add.I mean, overall, we're not immune to what's happening in the macro broadly, right, to Keith's question and your question Mark. I think I'd say I'd start there, because whether it's on the demand side with consumers or SMBs, I think Amy in her remarks talked about some of that, even in our results in the quarter. But what's happening with it in Azure, though, is in some sense, businesses trying to deal with the overall macroeconomic situation and trying to make sure that they can do more with less.For example, moving to the cloud is the best way to shape your spend with demand uncertainty, right, because in fact, if anything, one of the things that we're seeing is an increased shift towards the cloud, and then of course, optimizing your bill. We are incenting even our own field to ensure that the bills for our customers come down. And that, in fact, even shows up in some of the volatility in our Azure numbers, because that's one of the big benefits of the public cloud. And that's why I think, coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner, because it does act as that deflationary force.So, that's sort of what we are seeing in the Azure numbers. We will be exposed to consumer driven businesses and SMBs, but at some level, our strength as a company is much stronger in the core commercial. So, I think that will do fine there.The other one is also people building new applications that are completely new frontier. I mean, there are two numbers that I talked about. One is the triple digit growth in Cosmos DB, and triple digit growth in Container App Services. You take those two things, and you say, what are people doing? People are writing applications at a completely different frontier of efficiency, which is a cloud-native, serverless, container-based types of applications.And so, to me, that's another way for you to make sure that your IT spend goes a long way in a time like this.BRENT THILL, Jefferies:Amy, great to hear the double-digit guidance. I guess many are askingare you embedding a worsening macroenvironment or a similar environment that we're in to get to that type of growth?AMY HOOD:Thanks, Brent.As I said, it's trying to take into account the current macroenvironment.And as I said, I took what we saw in June, applied it as best we thought we could through the course of the fiscal year. And if you think about how the… and if you try to look over the course of the year with some of my comments, you'd say, okay, in H1 vs. H2, I would point out three things that changed a bit over the course of that time.First, of course, if we're talking about USD, it would be FX. It's a bigger headwind in H1; it's less of a headwind in H2. The second thing I would point to would be OpEx. As we've talked about in H1, we've obviously added .2% headcount this quarter. We still have 11,000 hires that we have started in Q1. We've still got Nuance and Xandr in acquisitions, and we anniversary, a lot of that as we focus our hiring and focus on the productivity of all the hiring we've done over the past year, and then the OEM comparables obviously get a lot different when you get from H1 into H2. And so, as you're trying to think about the shape, and how did I consider it, I sort of took those things into account, thought about the trends we've been seeing in June and applied them as best we can.Source:Microsoft Q4-FY2022 Earnings Call TranscriptWhile we might very well be in a recession already, enterprise spending is generally the last shoe to drop in a cycle, and we have not seen any signs of that so far. The FED is tightening into a slowing economy due to red-hot inflation; however, the probability of a recession is rising rapidly. This is why I fear that Microsoft may fail to meet its FY2023 guidance. I may be wrong here, but it is pretty clear that Microsoft's business could come under pressure if the macro worsens from here, which is very likely to happen.Microsoft's balance sheet is truly a fortress with ~$55B of net cash; however, things may change quickly if the $68.7B deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) goes through in the next 9-12 months (as per timeline). After this deal closes, Microsoft would still have ~$35-40B in cash (negative net cash, unless the company reduces its capital return program). And this cash position, combined with free cash flow generation, make Microsoft's dividend safe. However, if operating margins were to decline a lot, we may see a temporary suspension of Microsoft's stock buyback program.YChartsOverall, Microsoft is a fantastic company, and the fact that it is growing at this scale is truly astounding. With that said, Microsoft's business fundamentals are deteriorating - slowing revenue growth, flattening operating margins, and a worsening balance sheet. Considering all of this information, let's evaluate Microsoft's absolute fair value and 5-yr expected returns.Microsoft's Fair Value And Expected ReturnsThe exercise starts with simple data collection for inputs such as stock price, TTM revenue, and share count. To approximate the future free cash flows for Microsoft, I have used a two-step growth model: 10% CAGR growth for the first five years, followed by terminal growth of 3% per year.As you know, Microsoft is highly profitable, with operating margins consistently above 30% over the years, and hence, assuming a 30% optimized FCF margin at maturity is quite reasonable in my view. Despite Microsoft spending big on Activision, I think the tech giant will persist with its shareholder-friendly capital return policies.Lastly, I used a 10% discount rate (required IRR) for Microsoft, which happens to be the next best alternative (S&P 500's historical return) for long-term investors.TQI Valuation Model (Author)According to our valuation model, Microsoft's fair value is ~$156.27 per share (or $1.17T). With the stock trading at ~$252 per share, I think it is still trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value.Predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to stay depressed, higher equity multiples would stay here. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. Since Microsoft's scale and quality of business deserves a premium, I assigned a base case exit P/FCF multiple of ~25x.TQI Valuation Model (Author)By 2027, Microsoft could grow from ~$252 to ~$384 at a CAGR of 8.8%. Since Microsoft's expected returns fall short of our required IRR of 10%, it is not a buy. However, long-term investors who are willing to accept single-digit returns in exchange for greater stability (lower volatility) can continue to hold the stock.Remember, the intrinsic value and price targets we determined in this exercise are approximations of my expectations for Microsoft's business, which may differ materially in reality down the line. The purpose of performing this exercise is not to nail down the precise valuation of a business; it is to generate a good approximation of what a business can do for us. If we find that the current odds are favorable for long-term investors (us) even with conservative assumptions [& margin of safety], then and only then, we take a long position!As an analyst and an investor, I always strive to generate the best possible approximation for all companies under research. Despite all the due diligence I perform, I could be wrong, and this is why I always try to buy stocks with a margin of safety (at a discount to intrinsic value).Concluding ThoughtsDespite being down more than ~28% from its 2021 highs, Microsoft's stock continues to trade at a steep premium to its intrinsic value. With revenue and operating income growth slowing down in the face of a potential economic recession, Microsoft looks ripe for further normalization in trading multiples.Another 12% price decline and Microsoft would be trading at multiples last seen during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. However, a mover of this magnitude may not be enough, as inflation remains red hot, and the FED continues tightening its monetary policy despite the rising likelihood of an economic recession. As we saw today, Microsoft is not immune to macro, and any downward earnings revisions or guidance cuts could lead to a big sell-off in Microsoft's stock. On an absolute value basis, I believe that Microsoft is worth ~$156.27 per share, which means there may be more pain to come for MSFT shareholders. An old adage in investing goes like this - \"Don't Fight The Fed\" - and this quote is apt for today's market conditions. With important insiders also selling shares of Microsoft, I find it really, really hard to justify a new purchase at these elevated multiples. That said, long-term DGI investors could continue to 'Hold' at this price. If Microsoft gets down to ~20x P/E, I will look to add more shares at that time.Key Takeaway: I rate Microsoft a 'Neutral / Avoid' at $252.Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below or DM me.In addition to today's discussion, members at my marketplace service received TQI's Quantamental analysis, capital allocation plan, and risk management strategy for Microsoft [along with a special merger arbitrage trade idea].","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934216076,"gmtCreate":1663254018095,"gmtModify":1676537237707,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤔","listText":"🤔","text":"🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934216076","repostId":"1110863431","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110863431","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663252959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110863431?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 22:42","market":"other","language":"en","title":"This Week in Crypto: Inflation Frustrates Market Attempts to Advance Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110863431","media":"TipRanks","summary":"Story HighlightsFresh U.S. inflation data triggered sharp price declines across the cryptocurrency l","content":"<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsFresh U.S. inflation data triggered sharp price declines across the cryptocurrency landscape, forcing major cryptos to give back much of their earlier weekly gains. Besides a handful ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/this-week-in-crypto-inflation-frustrates-market-attempts-to-advance-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Week in Crypto: Inflation Frustrates Market Attempts to Advance Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Week in Crypto: Inflation Frustrates Market Attempts to Advance Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 22:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/this-week-in-crypto-inflation-frustrates-market-attempts-to-advance-higher><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Story HighlightsFresh U.S. inflation data triggered sharp price declines across the cryptocurrency landscape, forcing major cryptos to give back much of their earlier weekly gains. Besides a handful ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/this-week-in-crypto-inflation-frustrates-market-attempts-to-advance-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/this-week-in-crypto-inflation-frustrates-market-attempts-to-advance-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110863431","content_text":"Story HighlightsFresh U.S. inflation data triggered sharp price declines across the cryptocurrency landscape, forcing major cryptos to give back much of their earlier weekly gains. Besides a handful of altcoins that gained ground, most tokens are trading flat week-over-week.Bitcoin Stuck at $20,000After dropping to $18,700 last week, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) gained roughly 4.40% over the past seven sessions. The flagship cryptocurrency is currently facing significant resistance, trading just a few dollars above the $20,000 mark after rising to just shy of $23,000.Despite an impressive comeback at the beginning of the week, BTC’s value started dropping after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed annualized inflation of 8.30% through August. While this rate came in merely 0.20% above estimates, BTC reacted with a rapid reversal lower.In the meantime, BTC is treading water above the critical $20,000 psychological level. However, its market capitalization and dominance relative to other cryptocurrencies have experienced considerable setbacks this week. Per the weekly on-chain report from Coinglass, more than $88 million of BTC liquidations across exchanges this week contributed further to the decline in BTC’s value.Altcoins Mostly Unchanged after a Rollercoaster WeekAfter weeks of anticipation, the Ethereum Merge was completed in the early hours of September 15, helping Ethereum (ETH-USD) finalize its transition to the Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism from Proof-of-Work (PoW). Although ETH climbed throughout the week, its price was also sensitive to the inflation data, tumbling to a modest week-over-week loss of 2.70%.Out of the major altcoins, Solana (SOL) was a stronger performer, rising 3.00% from its prior week’s losses. This value appreciation comes at the heels of Helium Network expressing its intent to merge with the Solana blockchain. Other large-cap altcoins like Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Polygon (MATIC) registered minimal gains or losses over the last seven sessions.The week’s biggest gainers were Cosmos (ATOM) and ApeCoin (APE). While much of the market remained rangebound, ATOM soared 10.00% this week to its highest point in four months. ATOM is trending within the $14.00-$15.00 range following a significant uptick in on-chain activity on the Cosmos blockchain. Another catalyst behind ATOM’s momentum was the release of the Cosmos SDK version 0.46, delivering upgrades to several modules and features.ApeCoin (APE) added nearly 13.00% following project-related news shared by the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) and the Ape Foundation. These developments, alongside a proposal for a new election process for the project’s governing decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), sparked a fresh rally in APE.Terra’s Comeback Comes to a HaltAfter last week’s massive surge, Terra Classic (LUNC) holders received a major shock after the token tumbled nearly 52.30% over the last seven days. As the news of a Korean court issuing arrest warrants for Terra’s founder Do Kwon and five other individuals went viral, the price of LUNC sold off fast and hard.Per reports, arrest warrants were issued for these individuals due to their alleged violation of capital market rules. The Terra implosion that unfolded in May this year caused a crypto market crash, with more than 200,000 investors from Korea alone losing billions of dollars.This new revelation heaped on more negative pressure following earlier news of South Korean prosecutors launching another investigation into Terraform Labs to determine whether the company’s native tokens fell under the “securities” category.Google Cloud Supports Web3, Russia Considers Crypto, and MoreAs Web3 continues to attract significant funding and interest, Binance’s smart contract blockchain platform BNB Chain has unveiled a tie-up with Google Cloud to assist blockchain and Web3 startups. Through this partnership, all projects building atop BNB Chain will gain access to Google Cloud’s open-source infrastructure.More than 1,300 BNB-based dApps and protocols, ranging from DeFi, NFTs, Metaverse, and P2E games, can leverage Google Cloud for data encryption and on-demand on-chain data analysis, among other benefits.Contending with sanctions and economic blockades, Russia is growing increasingly serious about the idea of enabling crypto as a medium for cross-border payments. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin sent out an official instruction to the Duma and other state authorities to work on developing coordinated guidelines and policies to regulate cryptocurrency in the country by December 19, 2022.This development follows Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev’s confirmation that the Bank of Russia has agreed to legalize crypto for cross-border payments.Finally, in blockchain adoption news, Securitize Capital is preparing to tokenize KKR’s Health Care Strategic Growth Fund II on the Avalanche blockchain to promote greater accessibility. This new approach will enable investors to own on-chain representations of KKR’s healthcare-focused fund that invests across 23 North American and European pharmaceutical companies. KKR is one of the largest global investment companies, overseeing more than $491 billion in assets.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9907101536,"gmtCreate":1660157354928,"gmtModify":1703478449298,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you are amazing!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you are amazing!&nbsp;","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you are 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done!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9037161854","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034713906,"gmtCreate":1647962393316,"gmtModify":1676534285720,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>keep going!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>keep going!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$keep 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html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold and Silver Stocks Jumped in Early Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold and Silver Stocks Jumped in Early Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-03-08 22:47</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Gold and silver stocks jumped in early trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00c39456f438335c9fc4a560a9997e3f\" tg-width=\"329\" tg-height=\"476\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a746d9a46f283edd13d8bd9d973448f4\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"249\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CDE":"科尔黛伦矿业","AU":"AngloGold Ashanti Ltd ADS","EGO":"埃氏金业","AG":"First Majestic Silver Corporation"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124847682","content_text":"Gold and silver stocks jumped in early trading.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033069622,"gmtCreate":1646154636644,"gmtModify":1676534096690,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my hope still is you!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my hope still is you!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my hope still is you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033069622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039125442,"gmtCreate":1645969331449,"gmtModify":1676534078341,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Done","listText":"Done","text":"Done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039125442","repostId":"1125580913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030209018,"gmtCreate":1645720140467,"gmtModify":1676534057375,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>👍","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030209018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097443122,"gmtCreate":1645541303496,"gmtModify":1676534037588,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you can do it!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you can do 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it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094145719","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095760327,"gmtCreate":1644995175370,"gmtModify":1676533984578,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095760327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":149599606,"gmtCreate":1625733853205,"gmtModify":1703747374460,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>Give me a \"Like\", if you think tonight will be good.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>Give me a \"Like\", if you think tonight will be good.","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$Give me a \"Like\", if you think tonight will be good.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":42,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149599606","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9091578621,"gmtCreate":1643913075888,"gmtModify":1676533870528,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>still holding for you.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>still holding for you.","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$still holding for 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down.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9090026571","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582942911161794","authorId":"3582942911161794","name":"Nanamoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8624e691b889b8bc4515d1884744eb5a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582942911161794","authorIdStr":"3582942911161794"},"content":"me too. F care all. I have the holding power.","text":"me too. F care all. I have the holding power.","html":"me too. F care all. I have the holding power."}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887509610,"gmtCreate":1632057423630,"gmtModify":1676530693691,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>give me a like for Green!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>give me a like for Green!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$give me a like for Green!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887509610","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9033069622,"gmtCreate":1646154636644,"gmtModify":1676534096690,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my hope still is you!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my hope still is you!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my hope still is you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033069622","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097049833,"gmtCreate":1645282700749,"gmtModify":1676534015562,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>forever with you ♥!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>forever with you ♥!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$forever with you ♥!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097049833","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813174809,"gmtCreate":1630161939001,"gmtModify":1676530236662,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>pls like, cause I'm holding","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>pls like, cause I'm holding","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$pls like, cause I'm holding","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":16,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/813174809","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001707122,"gmtCreate":1641311441345,"gmtModify":1676533596699,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>still have high hope for you!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>still have high hope for you!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$still have high hope for 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[Grin]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832666798,"gmtCreate":1629622786814,"gmtModify":1676530081457,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>please give a like to AMC","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>please give a like to AMC","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$please give a like to AMC","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/832666798","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030209018,"gmtCreate":1645720140467,"gmtModify":1676534057375,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>👍","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>👍","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030209018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9934212761,"gmtCreate":1663254169753,"gmtModify":1676537237768,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"GIVE a like","listText":"GIVE a like","text":"GIVE a like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9934212761","repostId":"1151063859","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151063859","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1663252348,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1151063859?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-15 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151063859","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>With slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft&#39;s stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.</li><li>Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are set to pressure corporate earnings, and while Microsoft&#39;s numbers might hold up better than most peers, it is not immune to the economy.</li><li>In recent weeks, Microsoft&#39;s insiders (including the CEO &amp; CFO) have been cashing out of the stock in a big way. Is it time for retail investors to sell too?</li><li>While Microsoft is a great company, its premium valuation is a recipe for single-digit returns over the next five years.</li><li>For investors comfortable with mid-single digit returns in exchange for greater stability, holding MSFT at current levels is ok (but far from ideal). I rate MSFT &#39;Neutral&#39; at $252 per share.</li></ul><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>On Tuesday, Microsoft&#39;s (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock got hammered down along with broader markets [S&amp;P 500 down ~4%, Nasdaq-100 down 5%+] on concerns regarding a hotter-than-expected CPI print (8.3% in August 2022), and more so due to rising expectations of a ~75-100 bps rate hike from the FED at its September meeting next week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdd9276850280fde49f1571850b8dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Finviz</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8b481a1dbe9f80d2dd6338e7929cf6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>CNBC</p><p>After this latest price drop, Microsoft is staring at the prospect of retesting its 52-week lows of ~$240, last seen in June 2022. In my recent notes on Microsoft, I have rated the stock &#39;Neutral / Avoid&#39;, citing the sheer lack of risk premium. Furthermore, we have discussed the potential of a ~30-50% decline in Microsoft&#39;s stock due to an inevitable normalization of trading multiples, given the current macroeconomic environment.</p><p>In today&#39;s note, I would like to draw your attention to the ongoing insider selling, rising macro risk, worsening business fundamentals, and Microsoft&#39;s excessive absolute valuation.</p><p><b>Insiders Are Selling Hand Over Fist</b></p><p>Back in November 2021, Satya Nadella (Microsoft&#39;s CEO) sold roughly half of his Microsoft shares for around ~$340, which as of today, looks like him nailing the exact top on the stock.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b598b689ee9280c8a82e6fbb6c4b855\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nasdaq</p><p>And then, since late August, Satya has been at it again, selling ~167K shares [disposing of all of his latest stock grants and some additional shares]. Moreover, Amy Hood (Microsoft&#39;s CFO) joined in the fun last week and sold many of her shares, cashing out millions of dollars.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01da63e92c7af417306e354c94158a77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"663\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Nasdaq</p><p>With C-suite executives cashing out, it is fair to ask, &#34;Is it time for retail investors to get out of Microsoft?&#34; Let&#39;s find out.</p><p>Where Do We Stand And How Much Lower Could MSFT Go From Here?</p><p>After fading its latest rally, Microsoft&#39;s stock is hovering right above its June lows of ~$240 per share. Over the last year or so, Microsoft&#39;s trading multiples have been normalizing. With a P/E ratio of ~26x, Microsoft stock is far from cheap, especially because in a high-inflation environment, index multiples tend to go far lower than historical P/E averages of 15-20x. Even if Microsoft were to simply go down to 20x P/E, that would mean a 25-30% correction in the stock (&amp; that is only mean reversion).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2c8ec23056c1861a50cff72e4a7ba0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Furthermore, if Microsoft&#39;s earnings moderate over the next few quarters like they generally do at this stage of the cycle for technology companies, its stock may have much more downside risk than what has been priced at this moment. During the 2007-09 recession, Microsoft&#39;s FCF yield rose to ~11%, and if we were to end up going that high, the stock would probably need to fall by more than 50%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519927c5ff03fa1e8ccaa8196fd425f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Comparing Microsoft&#39;s free cash flow yield (of 3.43%) with treasury rates (&gt;3.5%), you can easily see the lack of risk premium attached to Microsoft&#39;s stock, i.e., the market is telling us that Microsoft is safer than treasuries. While this may be true to some extent, Microsoft&#39;s business is not immune from broader macro, and it certainly doesn&#39;t have the liberty of printing money.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0acf3faa059e9652f28ca08cbb4c6c75\" tg-width=\"493\" tg-height=\"287\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Treasury Rates on 13th September 2022 (CNBC)</p><p>Persistent inflation, surging interest rates, and a potential economic recession are set to bring several headwinds for Microsoft, and the stock may continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. Let&#39;s discuss some business fundamentals of Microsoft to ensure we are on the same page here.</p><p><b>Business Fundamentals Are Deteriorating</b></p><p>Microsoft&#39;s latest quarterly results met street expectations. Since these numbers have been widely discussed, we won&#39;t explore them today. Rather, I think we should look at the bigger picture by zooming out a little. In Q4 FY22, Microsoft&#39;s revenue growth rate continued decelerating, with operating margins also decreasing.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/028e0d5bd23551eda76fe1fd5b5f8a4b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>For FY-23, Microsoft&#39;s management expects double-digit growth in revenues and operating income [despite operating margins projected to remain flat]. While this guidance seemed to have buoyed analysts and investors alike [with MSFT&#39;s stock rocketing up to $290 per share], I don&#39;t think these numbers would be achieved in a recession [that&#39;s looking likelier by the day]. Back in 2007-09 (during the global financial crisis), Microsoft&#39;s revenues and operating margins declined significantly, which shows that Microsoft is not immune to the economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ccf2abbbf515944557a249d5502482\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"258\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft FY2023 Outlook</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3bff8de6f97517863566aac7a80521\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Microsoft FY2023 Outlook</p><p>During Microsoft&#39;s Q4-FY2022 earnings call, the company&#39;s CEO and CFO made it clear that the tech giant is not immune to the macroeconomic environment and that its FY2023 guidance was based on the current macro environment. Here&#39;s an excerpt from the latest earnings call transcript (the must-read parts are highlighted in bold):</p><blockquote><b>MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein:</b>Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter. I&#39;d like to follow up a little bit on that.<b>With all the concerns about macro recession, everyone&#39;s trying to understand how cloud, and from Microsoft&#39;s case more specifically, IaaS, PaaS operates in a slowdown recession. How do you think about Azure&#39;s resiliency? How do you think about Azure&#39;s exposure to advertising business, consumer Internet and SMB if we do see a real recession?</b>Thank you.</blockquote><blockquote><b>SATYA NADELLA:</b>Yeah, maybe I&#39;ll start, and Amy, feel free to add.<b>I mean, overall, we&#39;re not immune to what&#39;s happening in the macro broadly</b>, right, to Keith&#39;s question and your question Mark. I think I&#39;d say I&#39;d start there, because whether it&#39;s on the demand side with consumers or SMBs, I think Amy in her remarks talked about some of that, even in our results in the quarter. But what&#39;s happening with it in Azure, though, is in some sense, businesses trying to deal with the overall macroeconomic situation and trying to make sure that they can do more with less.</blockquote><blockquote>For example, moving to the cloud is the best way to shape your spend with demand uncertainty, right, because in fact, if anything, one of the things that we&#39;re seeing is an increased shift towards the cloud, and then of course, optimizing your bill. We are incenting even our own field to ensure that the bills for our customers come down. And that, in fact, even shows up in some of the volatility in our Azure numbers, because that&#39;s one of the big benefits of the public cloud. And that&#39;s why I think, coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner, because it does act as that deflationary force.</blockquote><blockquote>So, that&#39;s sort of what we are seeing in the Azure numbers. We will be exposed to consumer driven businesses and SMBs, but at some level, our strength as a company is much stronger in the core commercial. So, I think that will do fine there.</blockquote><blockquote>The other one is also people building new applications that are completely new frontier. I mean, there are two numbers that I talked about. One is the triple digit growth in Cosmos DB, and triple digit growth in Container App Services. You take those two things, and you say, what are people doing? People are writing applications at a completely different frontier of efficiency, which is a cloud-native, serverless, container-based types of applications.</blockquote><blockquote>And so, to me, that&#39;s another way for you to make sure that your IT spend goes a long way in a time like this.</blockquote><blockquote><b>BRENT THILL, Jefferies:</b>Amy, great to hear the double-digit guidance. I guess many are asking<b>are you embedding a worsening macroenvironment or a similar environment that we&#39;re in to get to that type of growth?</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>AMY HOOD:</b>Thanks, Brent.<b>As I said, it&#39;s trying to take into account the current macroenvironment.</b>And as I said, I took what we saw in June, applied it as best we thought we could through the course of the fiscal year. And if you think about how the… and if you try to look over the course of the year with some of my comments, you&#39;d say, okay, in H1 vs. H2, I would point out three things that changed a bit over the course of that time.</blockquote><blockquote>First, of course, if we&#39;re talking about USD, it would be FX. It&#39;s a bigger headwind in H1; it&#39;s less of a headwind in H2. The second thing I would point to would be OpEx. As we&#39;ve talked about in H1, we&#39;ve obviously added .2% headcount this quarter. We still have 11,000 hires that we have started in Q1. We&#39;ve still got Nuance and Xandr in acquisitions, and we anniversary, a lot of that as we focus our hiring and focus on the productivity of all the hiring we&#39;ve done over the past year, and then the OEM comparables obviously get a lot different when you get from H1 into H2. And so, as you&#39;re trying to think about the shape, and how did I consider it, I sort of took those things into account, thought about the trends we&#39;ve been seeing in June and applied them as best we can.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Microsoft Q4-FY2022 Earnings Call Transcript</blockquote><p>While we might very well be in a recession already, enterprise spending is generally the last shoe to drop in a cycle, and we have not seen any signs of that so far. The FED is tightening into a slowing economy due to red-hot inflation; however, the probability of a recession is rising rapidly. This is why I fear that Microsoft may fail to meet its FY2023 guidance. I may be wrong here, but it is pretty clear that Microsoft&#39;s business could come under pressure if the macro worsens from here, which is very likely to happen.</p><p>Microsoft&#39;s balance sheet is truly a fortress with ~$55B of net cash; however, things may change quickly if the $68.7B deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) goes through in the next 9-12 months (as per timeline). After this deal closes, Microsoft would still have ~$35-40B in cash (negative net cash, unless the company reduces its capital return program). And this cash position, combined with free cash flow generation, make Microsoft&#39;s dividend safe. However, if operating margins were to decline a lot, we may see a temporary suspension of Microsoft&#39;s stock buyback program.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1815a464e327b1ed52ae0a6187a0c010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>YCharts</p><p>Overall, Microsoft is a fantastic company, and the fact that it is growing at this scale is truly astounding. With that said, Microsoft&#39;s business fundamentals are deteriorating - slowing revenue growth, flattening operating margins, and a worsening balance sheet. Considering all of this information, let&#39;s evaluate Microsoft&#39;s absolute fair value and 5-yr expected returns.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p><p>The exercise starts with simple data collection for inputs such as stock price, TTM revenue, and share count. To approximate the future free cash flows for Microsoft, I have used a two-step growth model: 10% CAGR growth for the first five years, followed by terminal growth of 3% per year.</p><p>As you know, Microsoft is highly profitable, with operating margins consistently above 30% over the years, and hence, assuming a 30% optimized FCF margin at maturity is quite reasonable in my view. Despite Microsoft spending big on Activision, I think the tech giant will persist with its shareholder-friendly capital return policies.</p><p>Lastly, I used a 10% discount rate (required IRR) for Microsoft, which happens to be the next best alternative (S&amp;P 500&#39;s historical return) for long-term investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0470579af9dcb3b1c3c3b2d8e3aff4a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TQI Valuation Model (Author)</p><p>According to our valuation model, Microsoft&#39;s fair value is ~$156.27 per share (or $1.17T). With the stock trading at ~$252 per share, I think it is still trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value.</p><p>Predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to stay depressed, higher equity multiples would stay here. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. Since Microsoft&#39;s scale and quality of business deserves a premium, I assigned a base case exit P/FCF multiple of ~25x.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf57982886a90b915f9411d20ae90c46\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"307\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TQI Valuation Model (Author)</p><p>By 2027, Microsoft could grow from ~$252 to ~$384 at a CAGR of 8.8%. Since Microsoft&#39;s expected returns fall short of our required IRR of 10%, it is not a buy. However, long-term investors who are willing to accept single-digit returns in exchange for greater stability (lower volatility) can continue to hold the stock.</p><p>Remember, the intrinsic value and price targets we determined in this exercise are approximations of my expectations for Microsoft&#39;s business, which may differ materially in reality down the line. The purpose of performing this exercise is not to nail down the precise valuation of a business; it is to generate a good approximation of what a business can do for us. If we find that the current odds are favorable for long-term investors (us) even with conservative assumptions [&amp; margin of safety], then and only then, we take a long position!</p><p>As an analyst and an investor, I always strive to generate the best possible approximation for all companies under research. Despite all the due diligence I perform, I could be wrong, and this is why I always try to buy stocks with a margin of safety (at a discount to intrinsic value).</p><p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p><p>Despite being down more than ~28% from its 2021 highs, Microsoft&#39;s stock continues to trade at a steep premium to its intrinsic value. With revenue and operating income growth slowing down in the face of a potential economic recession, Microsoft looks ripe for further normalization in trading multiples.</p><p>Another 12% price decline and Microsoft would be trading at multiples last seen during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. However, a mover of this magnitude may not be enough, as inflation remains red hot, and the FED continues tightening its monetary policy despite the rising likelihood of an economic recession. As we saw today, Microsoft is not immune to macro, and any downward earnings revisions or guidance cuts could lead to a big sell-off in Microsoft&#39;s stock. On an absolute value basis, I believe that Microsoft is worth ~$156.27 per share, which means there may be more pain to come for MSFT shareholders. An old adage in investing goes like this - &#34;Don&#39;t Fight The Fed&#34; - and this quote is apt for today&#39;s market conditions. With important insiders also selling shares of Microsoft, I find it really, really hard to justify a new purchase at these elevated multiples. That said, long-term DGI investors could continue to &#39;Hold&#39; at this price. If Microsoft gets down to ~20x P/E, I will look to add more shares at that time.</p><p><b>Key Takeaway:</b> I rate Microsoft a &#39;Neutral / Avoid&#39; at $252.</p><p>Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below or DM me.</p><p>In addition to today&#39;s discussion, members at my marketplace service received TQI&#39;s Quantamental analysis, capital allocation plan, and risk management strategy for Microsoft [along with a special merger arbitrage trade idea].</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Insider Selling, Frothy Valuation, Worsening Fundamentals, And More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-15 22:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.Rising interest rates and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4540891-microsoft-insider-selling-frothy-valuation-worsening-fundamentals?source=content_type%3Aall%7Cfirst_level_url%3Aportfolio%7Csection%3Aportfolio_content_unit%7Csection_asset%3Alatest%7Cline%3A4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151063859","content_text":"SummaryWith slowing revenue growth and flattening operating margins, Microsoft's stock looks expensive at ~26x forward earnings in the face of a potential recession.Rising interest rates and persistent inflation are set to pressure corporate earnings, and while Microsoft's numbers might hold up better than most peers, it is not immune to the economy.In recent weeks, Microsoft's insiders (including the CEO & CFO) have been cashing out of the stock in a big way. Is it time for retail investors to sell too?While Microsoft is a great company, its premium valuation is a recipe for single-digit returns over the next five years.For investors comfortable with mid-single digit returns in exchange for greater stability, holding MSFT at current levels is ok (but far from ideal). I rate MSFT 'Neutral' at $252 per share.IntroductionOn Tuesday, Microsoft's (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock got hammered down along with broader markets [S&P 500 down ~4%, Nasdaq-100 down 5%+] on concerns regarding a hotter-than-expected CPI print (8.3% in August 2022), and more so due to rising expectations of a ~75-100 bps rate hike from the FED at its September meeting next week.FinvizCNBCAfter this latest price drop, Microsoft is staring at the prospect of retesting its 52-week lows of ~$240, last seen in June 2022. In my recent notes on Microsoft, I have rated the stock 'Neutral / Avoid', citing the sheer lack of risk premium. Furthermore, we have discussed the potential of a ~30-50% decline in Microsoft's stock due to an inevitable normalization of trading multiples, given the current macroeconomic environment.In today's note, I would like to draw your attention to the ongoing insider selling, rising macro risk, worsening business fundamentals, and Microsoft's excessive absolute valuation.Insiders Are Selling Hand Over FistBack in November 2021, Satya Nadella (Microsoft's CEO) sold roughly half of his Microsoft shares for around ~$340, which as of today, looks like him nailing the exact top on the stock.NasdaqAnd then, since late August, Satya has been at it again, selling ~167K shares [disposing of all of his latest stock grants and some additional shares]. Moreover, Amy Hood (Microsoft's CFO) joined in the fun last week and sold many of her shares, cashing out millions of dollars.NasdaqWith C-suite executives cashing out, it is fair to ask, \"Is it time for retail investors to get out of Microsoft?\" Let's find out.Where Do We Stand And How Much Lower Could MSFT Go From Here?After fading its latest rally, Microsoft's stock is hovering right above its June lows of ~$240 per share. Over the last year or so, Microsoft's trading multiples have been normalizing. With a P/E ratio of ~26x, Microsoft stock is far from cheap, especially because in a high-inflation environment, index multiples tend to go far lower than historical P/E averages of 15-20x. Even if Microsoft were to simply go down to 20x P/E, that would mean a 25-30% correction in the stock (& that is only mean reversion).YChartsFurthermore, if Microsoft's earnings moderate over the next few quarters like they generally do at this stage of the cycle for technology companies, its stock may have much more downside risk than what has been priced at this moment. During the 2007-09 recession, Microsoft's FCF yield rose to ~11%, and if we were to end up going that high, the stock would probably need to fall by more than 50%.YChartsComparing Microsoft's free cash flow yield (of 3.43%) with treasury rates (>3.5%), you can easily see the lack of risk premium attached to Microsoft's stock, i.e., the market is telling us that Microsoft is safer than treasuries. While this may be true to some extent, Microsoft's business is not immune from broader macro, and it certainly doesn't have the liberty of printing money.Treasury Rates on 13th September 2022 (CNBC)Persistent inflation, surging interest rates, and a potential economic recession are set to bring several headwinds for Microsoft, and the stock may continue to underperform for the foreseeable future. Let's discuss some business fundamentals of Microsoft to ensure we are on the same page here.Business Fundamentals Are DeterioratingMicrosoft's latest quarterly results met street expectations. Since these numbers have been widely discussed, we won't explore them today. Rather, I think we should look at the bigger picture by zooming out a little. In Q4 FY22, Microsoft's revenue growth rate continued decelerating, with operating margins also decreasing.YChartsFor FY-23, Microsoft's management expects double-digit growth in revenues and operating income [despite operating margins projected to remain flat]. While this guidance seemed to have buoyed analysts and investors alike [with MSFT's stock rocketing up to $290 per share], I don't think these numbers would be achieved in a recession [that's looking likelier by the day]. Back in 2007-09 (during the global financial crisis), Microsoft's revenues and operating margins declined significantly, which shows that Microsoft is not immune to the economy.Microsoft FY2023 OutlookMicrosoft FY2023 OutlookDuring Microsoft's Q4-FY2022 earnings call, the company's CEO and CFO made it clear that the tech giant is not immune to the macroeconomic environment and that its FY2023 guidance was based on the current macro environment. Here's an excerpt from the latest earnings call transcript (the must-read parts are highlighted in bold):MARK MOERDLER, Bernstein:Thank you very much, and congratulations on the quarter. I'd like to follow up a little bit on that.With all the concerns about macro recession, everyone's trying to understand how cloud, and from Microsoft's case more specifically, IaaS, PaaS operates in a slowdown recession. How do you think about Azure's resiliency? How do you think about Azure's exposure to advertising business, consumer Internet and SMB if we do see a real recession?Thank you.SATYA NADELLA:Yeah, maybe I'll start, and Amy, feel free to add.I mean, overall, we're not immune to what's happening in the macro broadly, right, to Keith's question and your question Mark. I think I'd say I'd start there, because whether it's on the demand side with consumers or SMBs, I think Amy in her remarks talked about some of that, even in our results in the quarter. But what's happening with it in Azure, though, is in some sense, businesses trying to deal with the overall macroeconomic situation and trying to make sure that they can do more with less.For example, moving to the cloud is the best way to shape your spend with demand uncertainty, right, because in fact, if anything, one of the things that we're seeing is an increased shift towards the cloud, and then of course, optimizing your bill. We are incenting even our own field to ensure that the bills for our customers come down. And that, in fact, even shows up in some of the volatility in our Azure numbers, because that's one of the big benefits of the public cloud. And that's why I think, coming out of this macroeconomic crisis, the public cloud will be even a bigger winner, because it does act as that deflationary force.So, that's sort of what we are seeing in the Azure numbers. We will be exposed to consumer driven businesses and SMBs, but at some level, our strength as a company is much stronger in the core commercial. So, I think that will do fine there.The other one is also people building new applications that are completely new frontier. I mean, there are two numbers that I talked about. One is the triple digit growth in Cosmos DB, and triple digit growth in Container App Services. You take those two things, and you say, what are people doing? People are writing applications at a completely different frontier of efficiency, which is a cloud-native, serverless, container-based types of applications.And so, to me, that's another way for you to make sure that your IT spend goes a long way in a time like this.BRENT THILL, Jefferies:Amy, great to hear the double-digit guidance. I guess many are askingare you embedding a worsening macroenvironment or a similar environment that we're in to get to that type of growth?AMY HOOD:Thanks, Brent.As I said, it's trying to take into account the current macroenvironment.And as I said, I took what we saw in June, applied it as best we thought we could through the course of the fiscal year. And if you think about how the… and if you try to look over the course of the year with some of my comments, you'd say, okay, in H1 vs. H2, I would point out three things that changed a bit over the course of that time.First, of course, if we're talking about USD, it would be FX. It's a bigger headwind in H1; it's less of a headwind in H2. The second thing I would point to would be OpEx. As we've talked about in H1, we've obviously added .2% headcount this quarter. We still have 11,000 hires that we have started in Q1. We've still got Nuance and Xandr in acquisitions, and we anniversary, a lot of that as we focus our hiring and focus on the productivity of all the hiring we've done over the past year, and then the OEM comparables obviously get a lot different when you get from H1 into H2. And so, as you're trying to think about the shape, and how did I consider it, I sort of took those things into account, thought about the trends we've been seeing in June and applied them as best we can.Source:Microsoft Q4-FY2022 Earnings Call TranscriptWhile we might very well be in a recession already, enterprise spending is generally the last shoe to drop in a cycle, and we have not seen any signs of that so far. The FED is tightening into a slowing economy due to red-hot inflation; however, the probability of a recession is rising rapidly. This is why I fear that Microsoft may fail to meet its FY2023 guidance. I may be wrong here, but it is pretty clear that Microsoft's business could come under pressure if the macro worsens from here, which is very likely to happen.Microsoft's balance sheet is truly a fortress with ~$55B of net cash; however, things may change quickly if the $68.7B deal to acquire Activision Blizzard (ATVI) goes through in the next 9-12 months (as per timeline). After this deal closes, Microsoft would still have ~$35-40B in cash (negative net cash, unless the company reduces its capital return program). And this cash position, combined with free cash flow generation, make Microsoft's dividend safe. However, if operating margins were to decline a lot, we may see a temporary suspension of Microsoft's stock buyback program.YChartsOverall, Microsoft is a fantastic company, and the fact that it is growing at this scale is truly astounding. With that said, Microsoft's business fundamentals are deteriorating - slowing revenue growth, flattening operating margins, and a worsening balance sheet. Considering all of this information, let's evaluate Microsoft's absolute fair value and 5-yr expected returns.Microsoft's Fair Value And Expected ReturnsThe exercise starts with simple data collection for inputs such as stock price, TTM revenue, and share count. To approximate the future free cash flows for Microsoft, I have used a two-step growth model: 10% CAGR growth for the first five years, followed by terminal growth of 3% per year.As you know, Microsoft is highly profitable, with operating margins consistently above 30% over the years, and hence, assuming a 30% optimized FCF margin at maturity is quite reasonable in my view. Despite Microsoft spending big on Activision, I think the tech giant will persist with its shareholder-friendly capital return policies.Lastly, I used a 10% discount rate (required IRR) for Microsoft, which happens to be the next best alternative (S&P 500's historical return) for long-term investors.TQI Valuation Model (Author)According to our valuation model, Microsoft's fair value is ~$156.27 per share (or $1.17T). With the stock trading at ~$252 per share, I think it is still trading at a hefty premium to its intrinsic value.Predicting where a stock would trade in the short term is impossible; however, over the long run, a stock would track its business fundamentals and obey the immutable laws of money. If the interest rates were to stay depressed, higher equity multiples would stay here. However, I work with the assumption that interest rates will eventually track the long-term average of ~5%. Inverting this number, we get a trading multiple of ~20x. Since Microsoft's scale and quality of business deserves a premium, I assigned a base case exit P/FCF multiple of ~25x.TQI Valuation Model (Author)By 2027, Microsoft could grow from ~$252 to ~$384 at a CAGR of 8.8%. Since Microsoft's expected returns fall short of our required IRR of 10%, it is not a buy. However, long-term investors who are willing to accept single-digit returns in exchange for greater stability (lower volatility) can continue to hold the stock.Remember, the intrinsic value and price targets we determined in this exercise are approximations of my expectations for Microsoft's business, which may differ materially in reality down the line. The purpose of performing this exercise is not to nail down the precise valuation of a business; it is to generate a good approximation of what a business can do for us. If we find that the current odds are favorable for long-term investors (us) even with conservative assumptions [& margin of safety], then and only then, we take a long position!As an analyst and an investor, I always strive to generate the best possible approximation for all companies under research. Despite all the due diligence I perform, I could be wrong, and this is why I always try to buy stocks with a margin of safety (at a discount to intrinsic value).Concluding ThoughtsDespite being down more than ~28% from its 2021 highs, Microsoft's stock continues to trade at a steep premium to its intrinsic value. With revenue and operating income growth slowing down in the face of a potential economic recession, Microsoft looks ripe for further normalization in trading multiples.Another 12% price decline and Microsoft would be trading at multiples last seen during the heights of the COVID-19 pandemic sell-off. However, a mover of this magnitude may not be enough, as inflation remains red hot, and the FED continues tightening its monetary policy despite the rising likelihood of an economic recession. As we saw today, Microsoft is not immune to macro, and any downward earnings revisions or guidance cuts could lead to a big sell-off in Microsoft's stock. On an absolute value basis, I believe that Microsoft is worth ~$156.27 per share, which means there may be more pain to come for MSFT shareholders. An old adage in investing goes like this - \"Don't Fight The Fed\" - and this quote is apt for today's market conditions. With important insiders also selling shares of Microsoft, I find it really, really hard to justify a new purchase at these elevated multiples. That said, long-term DGI investors could continue to 'Hold' at this price. If Microsoft gets down to ~20x P/E, I will look to add more shares at that time.Key Takeaway: I rate Microsoft a 'Neutral / Avoid' at $252.Thank you for reading, and happy investing! Please share any questions, thoughts, and/or concerns in the comments section below or DM me.In addition to today's discussion, members at my marketplace service received TQI's Quantamental analysis, capital allocation plan, and risk management strategy for Microsoft [along with a special merger arbitrage trade idea].","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9092695367,"gmtCreate":1644602457709,"gmtModify":1676533945458,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092695367","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888199263,"gmtCreate":1631451290652,"gmtModify":1676530550102,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>give a like for AMC!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>give a like for AMC!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$give a like for AMC!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888199263","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894058347,"gmtCreate":1628779054189,"gmtModify":1676529853144,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>I'm still HODL","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>I'm still HODL","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$I'm still HODL","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894058347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":77,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178151898,"gmtCreate":1626793329014,"gmtModify":1703765376298,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>please close around 38","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>please close around 38","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$please close around 38","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178151898","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097443122,"gmtCreate":1645541303496,"gmtModify":1676534037588,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you can do it!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>you can do it!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$you can do it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097443122","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884207032,"gmtCreate":1631890987926,"gmtModify":1676530664043,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Liked","listText":"Liked","text":"Liked","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/884207032","repostId":"2168788835","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2168788835","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631890618,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168788835?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-17 22:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168788835","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's hard to believe these two brand names and market leaders can be bought for less than $20 per share.","content":"<p>If you only had $20 to invest in a stock, where would you put that money? Of course, you could invest in fractional shares of a much more expensive stock, but if you wanted to buy full shares in a cheap stock and just sit back and watch it grow over the next 10 to 20 years or more, what would be your best option?</p>\n<p>Stocks in that price range are typically small companies, but there are also some larger companies with share prices under $20 that are priced low for a reason -- maybe they are new to the market or lost value for some reason.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37119bd078774e47a377b9118a2567b3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>Startups or small, unproven companies in high-flying industries are tempting investments for their potential; but if I only had $20 to invest in a stock, I'd focus on established companies that have track records of success and a strategic focus that gives them an advantage, namely <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKT\">Rocket Companies</a></b> (NYSE:RKT) and <b>Ford</b> (NYSE:F).</p>\n<h2>Rocket, a great value at about $17 per share</h2>\n<p>Rocket Companies has not set the stock market on fire since its high-profile IPO last August. It started trading at around $18 per share and has fluctuated wildly, jumping up to a high of $41 in March before plummeting back down to its current price of around $17 per share. Year-to-date it's down around 12% through Sept. 13.</p>\n<p>While the market has been ambivalent toward Rocket, there is a lot to like about this stock in the long term. For starters, Rocket is the largest home mortgage lender in the country; it had a market share of about 9% at the end of last year.</p>\n<p>It had a record year in 2020 in terms of loan originations, and that may have hurt Rocket's stock price this year as it has not matched 2020's ridiculously high numbers, which were fueled by a surge in refinancings from the historically low interest rates. But still, the numbers are strong, as Rocket did $84 billion in closed loan volume in the second quarter, twice the amount done in 2019 and more than all of 2018. Rocket CEO Jay Farner expects a strong second half and anticipates that 2021 will exceed 2020's record amount of mortgage originations, he said on the second-quarter earnings call.</p>\n<p>Rocket's big advantage is its technology. It was among the first mortgage companies to adapt an all-digital platform for obtaining loans and it continues to invest heavily in that platform. It has allowed Rocket to reduce its overhead and increase its efficiency as measured by a gain-on-sale margin that is higher than average. It's a competitive space, prone to market fluctuations, but Rocket has carved out its place as a leader and continues to gain market share.</p>\n<h2>Ford, at $13 per share, is banking on an EV future</h2>\n<p>Last spring, Ford was trading at below $5 per share; its recovery waylaid by the pandemic. But since then, the stock price has almost tripled to $13 per share, and the automaker has a bright future, illuminated by its focus on electric vehicles (EVs).</p>\n<p>Ford plans to invest about $30 billion in EVs and battery cells by 2025 as it accelerates its transition to EVs. The automaker plans to come out with 30 new EV models in the next five years, and by 2030 it expects to have 40% of its sales come from EVs, Ford President and CEO Jim Farley said on the second-quarter earnings call.</p>\n<p>The Mustang Mach-E, which came out last year, is the second-best-selling electric SUV. It, along with the F-150 Hybrid Powerboost, drove a 67% increase in EV sales in August. In 2022, EV versions of two of its most popular vehicles, the Ford F-150 truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, and the Transit van, the best-selling van, will be introduced. The fully electric F-150 Lightning already has 130,000 reservations.</p>\n<p>Ford is incredibly cheap right now, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about six and a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of around 0.12. With EVs as its catalyst, Ford should continue to grow from this low valuation through this decade and beyond.</p>\n<p>Investors would be smart to take advantage of this opportunity to buy these two great brands at great prices. Both Ford and Rocket are cheap and undervalued, and they have the potential for steady, long-term growth.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Smartest Stocks to Buy With $20 Right Now and Hold Forever\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-17 22:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/17/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-with-20-right-now-and-h/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you only had $20 to invest in a stock, where would you put that money? Of course, you could invest in fractional shares of a much more expensive stock, but if you wanted to buy full shares in a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/17/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-with-20-right-now-and-h/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","RKT":"Rocket Companies"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/17/the-smartest-stocks-to-buy-with-20-right-now-and-h/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2168788835","content_text":"If you only had $20 to invest in a stock, where would you put that money? Of course, you could invest in fractional shares of a much more expensive stock, but if you wanted to buy full shares in a cheap stock and just sit back and watch it grow over the next 10 to 20 years or more, what would be your best option?\nStocks in that price range are typically small companies, but there are also some larger companies with share prices under $20 that are priced low for a reason -- maybe they are new to the market or lost value for some reason.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nStartups or small, unproven companies in high-flying industries are tempting investments for their potential; but if I only had $20 to invest in a stock, I'd focus on established companies that have track records of success and a strategic focus that gives them an advantage, namely Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT) and Ford (NYSE:F).\nRocket, a great value at about $17 per share\nRocket Companies has not set the stock market on fire since its high-profile IPO last August. It started trading at around $18 per share and has fluctuated wildly, jumping up to a high of $41 in March before plummeting back down to its current price of around $17 per share. Year-to-date it's down around 12% through Sept. 13.\nWhile the market has been ambivalent toward Rocket, there is a lot to like about this stock in the long term. For starters, Rocket is the largest home mortgage lender in the country; it had a market share of about 9% at the end of last year.\nIt had a record year in 2020 in terms of loan originations, and that may have hurt Rocket's stock price this year as it has not matched 2020's ridiculously high numbers, which were fueled by a surge in refinancings from the historically low interest rates. But still, the numbers are strong, as Rocket did $84 billion in closed loan volume in the second quarter, twice the amount done in 2019 and more than all of 2018. Rocket CEO Jay Farner expects a strong second half and anticipates that 2021 will exceed 2020's record amount of mortgage originations, he said on the second-quarter earnings call.\nRocket's big advantage is its technology. It was among the first mortgage companies to adapt an all-digital platform for obtaining loans and it continues to invest heavily in that platform. It has allowed Rocket to reduce its overhead and increase its efficiency as measured by a gain-on-sale margin that is higher than average. It's a competitive space, prone to market fluctuations, but Rocket has carved out its place as a leader and continues to gain market share.\nFord, at $13 per share, is banking on an EV future\nLast spring, Ford was trading at below $5 per share; its recovery waylaid by the pandemic. But since then, the stock price has almost tripled to $13 per share, and the automaker has a bright future, illuminated by its focus on electric vehicles (EVs).\nFord plans to invest about $30 billion in EVs and battery cells by 2025 as it accelerates its transition to EVs. The automaker plans to come out with 30 new EV models in the next five years, and by 2030 it expects to have 40% of its sales come from EVs, Ford President and CEO Jim Farley said on the second-quarter earnings call.\nThe Mustang Mach-E, which came out last year, is the second-best-selling electric SUV. It, along with the F-150 Hybrid Powerboost, drove a 67% increase in EV sales in August. In 2022, EV versions of two of its most popular vehicles, the Ford F-150 truck, the best-selling vehicle in America, and the Transit van, the best-selling van, will be introduced. The fully electric F-150 Lightning already has 130,000 reservations.\nFord is incredibly cheap right now, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about six and a price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of around 0.12. With EVs as its catalyst, Ford should continue to grow from this low valuation through this decade and beyond.\nInvestors would be smart to take advantage of this opportunity to buy these two great brands at great prices. Both Ford and Rocket are cheap and undervalued, and they have the potential for steady, long-term growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034713906,"gmtCreate":1647962393316,"gmtModify":1676534285720,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>keep going!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>keep going!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$keep going!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034713906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9034610061,"gmtCreate":1647873195925,"gmtModify":1676534274304,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>go go go!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>go go go!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$go go go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9034610061","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095760327,"gmtCreate":1644995175370,"gmtModify":1676533984578,"author":{"id":"3582065840685161","authorId":"3582065840685161","name":"IvanKHS","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582065840685161","authorIdStr":"3582065840685161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>well done!","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$well done!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095760327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}