paul55555 personal page - To The Moon

paul55555

No personal profile

1Follow

6Followers

0Topic

0Badge

2022-12-25

Merry Christmas everyone

Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022

2023-04-27

Just install waymo on a tesla. You get a real self driving car immediately

Tesla: Q1 Margin Squeeze, But Self-Driving Adds Huge Upside Potential

2022-12-29

Good luck

Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity

2023-01-12

Drop

Tesla: Prioritizing Volume Over Margins

2022-11-19

Good thing they have money to burn

Sea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner

2022-12-10

What's the point in being so rich if you can't even buy a peaceful night's rest

US Probes FTX Founder for Fraud, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas

2023-01-23

12-15 times of forward pe 2024? Personally I have my doubts.. Good luck to tesla bulls

Tesla Is Finally Cheap - Strong Buy Now?

2022-09-20

Like

Is The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes

2022-08-28

Good info

5 Top Stocks Cathie Wood Is Selling This Week

2022-07-17

Like

Tycoon Whose Bet Broke the Nickel Market Walks Away a Billionaire

2022-10-01

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$perhaps 50

2022-08-09

Like pls

US STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Little Changed on Fed Policy Fears

2022-10-29

Why not target

Better Buy: Walmart or Costco?

2022-12-02

Hope their Trucks are more reliable than cars

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-10-05

Interesting

Bank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy

2023-01-14

Shorted tsla and paid for it..

Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?

2022-11-25

10,000 eth worth 1.2m sell me some at double your cost please

Ethereum Transactions Are At 4-Month Low, But Whales Keep Accumulating

2022-08-31

Will it get warmer or colder?

Bitcoin’s Crypto Winter Morphs Into a Sleepy Summer

Go to Tiger App to see more news

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"userPageInfo":{"id":3582246479396497,"uuid":"3582246479396497","gmtCreate":1619152491812,"gmtModify":1619152491812,"name":"paul55555","pinyin":"paul55555","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":6,"headSize":1,"tweetSize":111,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.19","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.06.28","exceedPercentage":"93.82%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789-1","templateUuid":"7a9f168ff73447fe856ed6c938b61789","name":"Knowledgeable Investor","description":"Traded more than 10 stocks","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.22","exceedPercentage":"93.40%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":273239331668192,"gmtCreate":1707746614906,"gmtModify":1707746619769,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Paypal actually didn't give a full year guidance as mentioned during the conference call. However analysts seeing their report would think otherwise.&nbsp; So yea I agree the market got it wrong. But the guy who prepared paypal earnings report made a huge mistake","listText":"Paypal actually didn't give a full year guidance as mentioned during the conference call. However analysts seeing their report would think otherwise.&nbsp; So yea I agree the market got it wrong. But the guy who prepared paypal earnings report made a huge mistake","text":"Paypal actually didn't give a full year guidance as mentioned during the conference call. However analysts seeing their report would think otherwise. So yea I agree the market got it wrong. But the guy who prepared paypal earnings report made a huge mistake","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/273239331668192","repostId":"2410810561","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2410810561","pubTimestamp":1707740100,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2410810561?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-12 20:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Stock: The Market Got It Wrong","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2410810561","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"First off, let's quickly review the actual results for the past quarter.In Q4 FY2023, PayPal reported a 5% YoY increase in branded checkout growth, slightly down from the previous period but still in line with expectations. PayPal reported a 9% revenue growth driven by a $410 billion total payment volume . The company maintained strong expense discipline, reducing non-transaction-related expenses by 9% YoY. This led to a 19% YoY increase in non-GAAP EPS, beating the consensus estimate and reflec","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>&#39;s Q4 FY2023 results showed a slight decrease in growth but still beat consensus estimates, reflecting solid financial results amidst organizational changes.</p></li><li><p>PYPL&#39;s strategic priorities include accelerating growth in branded checkout, driving profitable growth in PSP services, and focusing on small business solutions.</p></li><li><p>The Company&#39;s opportunity to expand its ecosystem and become a data-driven &#39;super-app&#39; could fuel growth acceleration in the medium term.</p></li><li><p>PayPal&#39;s revenue streams appear robust, with a focus on qualitative growth expected to expand business margins and bolster free cash flow generation in the future.</p></li><li><p>Under conservative assumptions, my calculations lead me to a price objective of $73.45 by the end of 2025, which is 24.7% above today&#39;s price. So PYPL is still a &#34;Buy&#34; for me despite many risks surrounding the company.</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cf8ebba06dff21bcef0037b713b0520\" alt=\"chameleonseye\" title=\"chameleonseye\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/><span>chameleonseye</span></p><h2 id=\"id_1093101129\">Intro &amp; Thesis</h2><p>I initiated coverage of <strong>PayPal Holdings, Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ:PYPL) stock in May 2023, initially giving them a &#34;Hold&#34; rating, citing slowing business growth rates and still expensive valuation at the time. However, in late November 2023, I upgraded the stock to &#34;Buy&#34; seeing a jump in PayPal&#39;s fair value. Since then, PayPal has seen a 17% surge before experiencing an 11% decline after the latest report for Q4 FY2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dccec0dc50a6ff0769108fce706da44\" alt=\"Author&#39;s coverage of PYPL stock\" title=\"Author&#39;s coverage of PYPL stock\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"/><span>Author&#39;s coverage of PYPL stock</span></p><p>Despite the negative reaction following the company&#39;s report and the accompanying comments from management, I am inclined to believe that this was an overreaction and that the market does not fully understand what the company&#39;s transformation efforts could lead to in the medium term.</p><h2 id=\"id_531849590\">Why Do I Think So?</h2><p>First off, let&#39;s quickly review the actual results for the past quarter.</p><p>In Q4 FY2023, PayPal reported a 5% YoY increase in branded checkout growth, slightly down from the previous period but still in line with expectations. PayPal reported a 9% revenue growth driven by a $410 billion total payment volume (+5.7% YoY). The company maintained strong expense discipline, reducing non-transaction-related expenses by 9% YoY. This led to a 19% YoY increase in non-GAAP EPS, beating the consensus estimate and reflecting solid financial results amidst significant organizational changes.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c140768879bce7aee4468826db07458\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha, PYPL\" title=\"Seeking Alpha, PYPL\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\"/><span>Seeking Alpha, PYPL</span></p><p>Despite a slight decrease in growth compared to the prior quarter, PayPal maintained robust performance in unbranded checkout, primarily driven by a 29% YoY increase in Payment Service Provider (PSP) volumes, fueled by growth in Braintree. The company anticipates further benefits from initiatives such as Fast Lane, aimed at streamlining checkout processes, and plans to explore opportunities for higher-margin transactions in international and small business sectors.</p><p>Speaking about the Small and Medium-sized Business (SMB) merchants, PayPal&#39;s continued momentum was evident through the expansion of PayPal Complete Payments (PPCP), marked by record customer adoption, reduced merchant churn rates, and increased transaction volume for migrating merchants. PayPal aims to capitalize further on this segment, targeting the vast $750 billion TAM of SMB processing volumes.</p><p>During the earnings call, PYPL&#39;s management outlined strategic priorities aimed at accelerating growth, improving profitability, leveraging data for value creation, and enhancing operational efficiency. Initiatives include accelerating growth in branded checkout, driving profitable growth in PSP services, and focusing on small business solutions like PPCP.</p><p>If we look at the state of the &#34;Buy Now, Pay Later&#34; (BNPL) industry, where PayPal is trying to actively develop, we see that it&#39;s experiencing significant growth, though it still represents a small portion of the overall consumer credit space, according to the latest Morgan Stanley&#39;s report (proprietary source). Usage of BNPL options has surged in recent years, especially during holiday seasons and promotional events. This rise in popularity is partly driven by tightening lending standards and higher inflation rates, making BNPL more attractive, particularly for younger and lower-credit-quality households.</p><p>Looking forward, PayPal guided for Q1 FY2024, expecting revenue to increase approximately 6.5% at spot and 7% on a currency-neutral basis, with non-GAAP EPS projected to grow at a mid-single-digit percentage. For the full year, PayPal anticipates non-GAAP EPS to be roughly in line with the prior year, with minimal impact from recent innovations. The management said it intends to reinvest cost savings into strategic product initiatives, prioritizing sustainable and profitable growth in 2024. I believe that the reason why investors were disappointed and sold heavily on February 8 after the report and commentary was due to the discrepancy between forecasting flat EPS momentum despite the expected cost savings and profit growth promised for this year.</p><p><em>What the market has missed in my opinion, however, is PayPal&#39;s opportunity to qualitatively expand its ecosystem.</em></p><p>PYPL is the largest BNPL industry player in the world with a massive 68.1% market share. In my view, PayPal&#39;s market dominance could fuel growth acceleration in the medium term, thanks to its new strategy emphasizing disciplined go-to-market strategies and renewals. This strategy places a specific emphasis on innovative checkout solutions, enhancements to consumer apps, and the consolidation of its technological infrastructure onto a single platform to maximize data synergies.</p><p>In other words, PayPal is trying to create a data-driven &#39;super-app&#39; - a unified digital wallet - enabling users to manage various financial services seamlessly. Users can transfer funds across multiple channels and to various recipients using preferred funding sources like card products, PayPal or Venmo balances, cryptocurrencies, and BNPL options. This effort is likely to drive the company&#39;s TPV volumes further thanks to digital payment adoption, international expansion, and improved checkout conversion rates.</p><p>Also, PayPal&#39;s guidance for at least $5 billion of share buybacks exceeded FactSet&#39;s expectations (Goldman Sachs data, proprietary source), indicating additional support for the stock in the foreseeable future. Additionally, while non-transaction operating expenses are anticipated to grow slightly in FY2024 due to increased investment in new product initiatives, PayPal remains committed to delivering value to shareholders while pursuing strategic growth opportunities.</p><p>PayPal is systematically reducing the number of its shares outstanding, and even a relatively high SBC of ~4.8% (Q4 FY2023, YCharts data) cannot stop this strong downward trend. At the same time, the forwarding FCF yield of 7.9% (based on my calculations and PYPL&#39;s guidance) seems attractive today if we assume growth acceleration beyond 2024.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80f0bcb98d0c251a3510fcce04ac0cd2\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>In my opinion, the market is wrong about PYPL&#39;s stock price today because it assumes no growth for 2024 and ignores the growth prospects for 2025-2027. We see this in the consensus forecasts (Seeking Alpha Premium data): PYPL&#39;s lack of EPS growth in FY2024 gives way to growth recovery as early as 2025, resulting in a longer-term EPS CAGR of +6.15% and an implied P/E ratio falling to 8.64x in FY2027:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1b3635cad6c63c823e1f5253b56dca7\" alt=\"Seeking Alpha Premium, PYPL, author&#39;s notes\" title=\"Seeking Alpha Premium, PYPL, author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\"/><span>Seeking Alpha Premium, PYPL, author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>The forecasted standardized profit and loss report from analysts at Goldman Sachs illuminates a crucial prerequisite for the anticipated upswing in PYPL&#39;s financials rating post FY2024:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ace1f1b73c8d27e7d958888fc9d1882\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs [proprietary source], author&#39;s notes\" title=\"Goldman Sachs [proprietary source], author&#39;s notes\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"/><span>Goldman Sachs [proprietary source], author&#39;s notes</span></p><p>Goldman&#39;s FY2025 EPS forecast of $5.65 is in line with consensus. Let&#39;s assume PYPL&#39;s P/E approaches 13x by the end of FY2025 as the business transforms and growth accelerates. In the historical context, this seems to be a very conservative assumption considering where PYPL&#39;s multiples were 2-3 years ago.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec9bc409a8e6a73622b70b12f8d4edb\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>With this input data, I get a price objective of $73.45, which is 24.7% above today&#39;s price. This means that if an investor is willing to buy the PYPL stock now, assuming that the company&#39;s strategic efforts will be at least partially realized, then he/she can potentially achieve an above-market return in the medium term with a very conservative exit valuation multiple. I therefore maintain my &#39;Buy&#39; rating, despite the sharp fall in the stock price that we saw after PayPal&#39;s quarterly figures.</p><h2 id=\"id_1168112181\">Risks To My Thesis</h2><p>Investing in PayPal carries inherent risks, notably regulatory uncertainties and fierce competition in the fintech sector. Established players like ApplePay and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>&#39;s Checkout pose formidable challenges to PayPal&#39;s market share and profit margins. Moreover, cybersecurity threats and economic fluctuations further compound these risks, potentially eroding consumer trust and transaction volumes.</p><p>Additionally, PayPal faces execution risks in sustaining user growth amidst evolving market dynamics. The company must navigate transaction margin pressures while adapting to changing consumer preferences, especially in mobile payment services. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors and currency exchange rate fluctuations add complexity to its risk profile. Effectively managing these risks is essential for PayPal to maintain its market position and capitalize on growth opportunities.</p><p>So make sure you do your own due diligence before you buy PYPL stock: Seeking Alpha Premium&#39;s many offerings, as well as research from other authors, may help you with this.</p><h2 id=\"id_3098573252\">The Verdict</h2><p>Despite the abundance of negativity following the publication of the Q4 FY2023 results, PayPal&#39;s prospects look interesting in the medium term as the strategic plan is implemented. In the long term, competition will be a strong headwind, but name me a fintech company that doesn&#39;t have serious competition today. PayPal&#39;s revenue origination looks very stable today, and the focus on quality growth going forward with the expansion of business margins next year (which I hope for) should provide even more opportunities for FCF generation in my opinion. And as we&#39;ve seen in recent quarters, PayPal&#39;s approach to using its FCF for buybacks is already positioning the company as a solid value-like play in the industry. Based on all of the factors discussed, I&#39;m reiterating my previous &#34;Buy&#34; rating today with a medium-term price objective of $73.45/share. Please let me know in the comments below if you agree with me here.</p><p><em>Thanks for reading!</em></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Stock: The Market Got It Wrong</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Stock: The Market Got It Wrong\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-12 20:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669474-paypal-stock-the-market-got-it-wrong><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>PayPal's Q4 FY2023 results showed a slight decrease in growth but still beat consensus estimates, reflecting solid financial results amidst organizational changes.PYPL's strategic priorities include ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669474-paypal-stock-the-market-got-it-wrong\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","LU1861217088.USD":"贝莱德金融科技A2","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","PYPL":"PayPal","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4227":"交易和支付处理服务","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4669474-paypal-stock-the-market-got-it-wrong","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2410810561","content_text":"PayPal's Q4 FY2023 results showed a slight decrease in growth but still beat consensus estimates, reflecting solid financial results amidst organizational changes.PYPL's strategic priorities include accelerating growth in branded checkout, driving profitable growth in PSP services, and focusing on small business solutions.The Company's opportunity to expand its ecosystem and become a data-driven 'super-app' could fuel growth acceleration in the medium term.PayPal's revenue streams appear robust, with a focus on qualitative growth expected to expand business margins and bolster free cash flow generation in the future.Under conservative assumptions, my calculations lead me to a price objective of $73.45 by the end of 2025, which is 24.7% above today's price. So PYPL is still a \"Buy\" for me despite many risks surrounding the company.chameleonseyeIntro & ThesisI initiated coverage of PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) stock in May 2023, initially giving them a \"Hold\" rating, citing slowing business growth rates and still expensive valuation at the time. However, in late November 2023, I upgraded the stock to \"Buy\" seeing a jump in PayPal's fair value. Since then, PayPal has seen a 17% surge before experiencing an 11% decline after the latest report for Q4 FY2023.Author's coverage of PYPL stockDespite the negative reaction following the company's report and the accompanying comments from management, I am inclined to believe that this was an overreaction and that the market does not fully understand what the company's transformation efforts could lead to in the medium term.Why Do I Think So?First off, let's quickly review the actual results for the past quarter.In Q4 FY2023, PayPal reported a 5% YoY increase in branded checkout growth, slightly down from the previous period but still in line with expectations. PayPal reported a 9% revenue growth driven by a $410 billion total payment volume (+5.7% YoY). The company maintained strong expense discipline, reducing non-transaction-related expenses by 9% YoY. This led to a 19% YoY increase in non-GAAP EPS, beating the consensus estimate and reflecting solid financial results amidst significant organizational changes.Seeking Alpha, PYPLDespite a slight decrease in growth compared to the prior quarter, PayPal maintained robust performance in unbranded checkout, primarily driven by a 29% YoY increase in Payment Service Provider (PSP) volumes, fueled by growth in Braintree. The company anticipates further benefits from initiatives such as Fast Lane, aimed at streamlining checkout processes, and plans to explore opportunities for higher-margin transactions in international and small business sectors.Speaking about the Small and Medium-sized Business (SMB) merchants, PayPal's continued momentum was evident through the expansion of PayPal Complete Payments (PPCP), marked by record customer adoption, reduced merchant churn rates, and increased transaction volume for migrating merchants. PayPal aims to capitalize further on this segment, targeting the vast $750 billion TAM of SMB processing volumes.During the earnings call, PYPL's management outlined strategic priorities aimed at accelerating growth, improving profitability, leveraging data for value creation, and enhancing operational efficiency. Initiatives include accelerating growth in branded checkout, driving profitable growth in PSP services, and focusing on small business solutions like PPCP.If we look at the state of the \"Buy Now, Pay Later\" (BNPL) industry, where PayPal is trying to actively develop, we see that it's experiencing significant growth, though it still represents a small portion of the overall consumer credit space, according to the latest Morgan Stanley's report (proprietary source). Usage of BNPL options has surged in recent years, especially during holiday seasons and promotional events. This rise in popularity is partly driven by tightening lending standards and higher inflation rates, making BNPL more attractive, particularly for younger and lower-credit-quality households.Looking forward, PayPal guided for Q1 FY2024, expecting revenue to increase approximately 6.5% at spot and 7% on a currency-neutral basis, with non-GAAP EPS projected to grow at a mid-single-digit percentage. For the full year, PayPal anticipates non-GAAP EPS to be roughly in line with the prior year, with minimal impact from recent innovations. The management said it intends to reinvest cost savings into strategic product initiatives, prioritizing sustainable and profitable growth in 2024. I believe that the reason why investors were disappointed and sold heavily on February 8 after the report and commentary was due to the discrepancy between forecasting flat EPS momentum despite the expected cost savings and profit growth promised for this year.What the market has missed in my opinion, however, is PayPal's opportunity to qualitatively expand its ecosystem.PYPL is the largest BNPL industry player in the world with a massive 68.1% market share. In my view, PayPal's market dominance could fuel growth acceleration in the medium term, thanks to its new strategy emphasizing disciplined go-to-market strategies and renewals. This strategy places a specific emphasis on innovative checkout solutions, enhancements to consumer apps, and the consolidation of its technological infrastructure onto a single platform to maximize data synergies.In other words, PayPal is trying to create a data-driven 'super-app' - a unified digital wallet - enabling users to manage various financial services seamlessly. Users can transfer funds across multiple channels and to various recipients using preferred funding sources like card products, PayPal or Venmo balances, cryptocurrencies, and BNPL options. This effort is likely to drive the company's TPV volumes further thanks to digital payment adoption, international expansion, and improved checkout conversion rates.Also, PayPal's guidance for at least $5 billion of share buybacks exceeded FactSet's expectations (Goldman Sachs data, proprietary source), indicating additional support for the stock in the foreseeable future. Additionally, while non-transaction operating expenses are anticipated to grow slightly in FY2024 due to increased investment in new product initiatives, PayPal remains committed to delivering value to shareholders while pursuing strategic growth opportunities.PayPal is systematically reducing the number of its shares outstanding, and even a relatively high SBC of ~4.8% (Q4 FY2023, YCharts data) cannot stop this strong downward trend. At the same time, the forwarding FCF yield of 7.9% (based on my calculations and PYPL's guidance) seems attractive today if we assume growth acceleration beyond 2024.Data by YChartsIn my opinion, the market is wrong about PYPL's stock price today because it assumes no growth for 2024 and ignores the growth prospects for 2025-2027. We see this in the consensus forecasts (Seeking Alpha Premium data): PYPL's lack of EPS growth in FY2024 gives way to growth recovery as early as 2025, resulting in a longer-term EPS CAGR of +6.15% and an implied P/E ratio falling to 8.64x in FY2027:Seeking Alpha Premium, PYPL, author's notesThe forecasted standardized profit and loss report from analysts at Goldman Sachs illuminates a crucial prerequisite for the anticipated upswing in PYPL's financials rating post FY2024:Goldman Sachs [proprietary source], author's notesGoldman's FY2025 EPS forecast of $5.65 is in line with consensus. Let's assume PYPL's P/E approaches 13x by the end of FY2025 as the business transforms and growth accelerates. In the historical context, this seems to be a very conservative assumption considering where PYPL's multiples were 2-3 years ago.Data by YChartsWith this input data, I get a price objective of $73.45, which is 24.7% above today's price. This means that if an investor is willing to buy the PYPL stock now, assuming that the company's strategic efforts will be at least partially realized, then he/she can potentially achieve an above-market return in the medium term with a very conservative exit valuation multiple. I therefore maintain my 'Buy' rating, despite the sharp fall in the stock price that we saw after PayPal's quarterly figures.Risks To My ThesisInvesting in PayPal carries inherent risks, notably regulatory uncertainties and fierce competition in the fintech sector. Established players like ApplePay and Visa's Checkout pose formidable challenges to PayPal's market share and profit margins. Moreover, cybersecurity threats and economic fluctuations further compound these risks, potentially eroding consumer trust and transaction volumes.Additionally, PayPal faces execution risks in sustaining user growth amidst evolving market dynamics. The company must navigate transaction margin pressures while adapting to changing consumer preferences, especially in mobile payment services. Furthermore, macroeconomic factors and currency exchange rate fluctuations add complexity to its risk profile. Effectively managing these risks is essential for PayPal to maintain its market position and capitalize on growth opportunities.So make sure you do your own due diligence before you buy PYPL stock: Seeking Alpha Premium's many offerings, as well as research from other authors, may help you with this.The VerdictDespite the abundance of negativity following the publication of the Q4 FY2023 results, PayPal's prospects look interesting in the medium term as the strategic plan is implemented. In the long term, competition will be a strong headwind, but name me a fintech company that doesn't have serious competition today. PayPal's revenue origination looks very stable today, and the focus on quality growth going forward with the expansion of business margins next year (which I hope for) should provide even more opportunities for FCF generation in my opinion. And as we've seen in recent quarters, PayPal's approach to using its FCF for buybacks is already positioning the company as a solid value-like play in the industry. Based on all of the factors discussed, I'm reiterating my previous \"Buy\" rating today with a medium-term price objective of $73.45/share. Please let me know in the comments below if you agree with me here.Thanks for reading!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":216589492330624,"gmtCreate":1693911795822,"gmtModify":1693911800010,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Open only to Softbank clients if I am not wrong. Normal people like us can only buy after market opens","listText":"Open only to Softbank clients if I am not wrong. Normal people like us can only buy after market opens","text":"Open only to Softbank clients if I am not wrong. Normal people like us can only buy after market opens","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/216589492330624","repostId":"1116494743","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116494743","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1693911087,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116494743?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-05 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Arm Aims to Raise up to $4.87 Billion in US IPO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116494743","media":"Reuters","summary":"SoftBank Group's Arm is aiming to raise up to $4.87 billion in the chip designer's U.S. initial public offering, a regulatory filing showed on Tuesday.SoftBank is offering 95.5 million American depository shares of the Cambridge, United Kingdom-based company for a price of between $47 and $51 apiece.Arm's return to the public markets will be a milestone for SoftBank, as it taps several marquee technology names as investors in the company whose designs power more than 99% of the world's smartphon","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SoftBank Group&#39;s Arm is aiming to raise up to $4.87 billion in the chip designer&#39;s U.S. initial public offering, a regulatory filing showed on Tuesday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">SoftBank is offering 95.5 million American depository shares of the Cambridge, United Kingdom-based company for a price of between $47 and $51 apiece.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Arm&#39;s return to the public markets will be a milestone for SoftBank, as it taps several marquee technology names as investors in the company whose designs power more than 99% of the world&#39;s smartphones.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The listing is expected to buoy the IPO market globally and fuel other startups to move ahead with their offerings as Arm&#39;s success signals the return of investor appetite for high-growth technology companies.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Reuters first reported on SoftBank&#39;s proposed price range for the IPO on Saturday. Sources also said it could possibly raise this range before the IPO prices, should investor demand prove strong.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Arm has also already signed up many of its major clients as investors in its IPO, Reuters reported on Friday. These include Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices, Intel and Samsung Electronics.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Arm Aims to Raise up to $4.87 Billion in US IPO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nArm Aims to Raise up to $4.87 Billion in US IPO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-09-05 18:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>SoftBank Group&#39;s Arm is aiming to raise up to $4.87 billion in the chip designer&#39;s U.S. initial public offering, a regulatory filing showed on Tuesday.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">SoftBank is offering 95.5 million American depository shares of the Cambridge, United Kingdom-based company for a price of between $47 and $51 apiece.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Arm&#39;s return to the public markets will be a milestone for SoftBank, as it taps several marquee technology names as investors in the company whose designs power more than 99% of the world&#39;s smartphones.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">The listing is expected to buoy the IPO market globally and fuel other startups to move ahead with their offerings as Arm&#39;s success signals the return of investor appetite for high-growth technology companies.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Reuters first reported on SoftBank&#39;s proposed price range for the IPO on Saturday. Sources also said it could possibly raise this range before the IPO prices, should investor demand prove strong.</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Arm has also already signed up many of its major clients as investors in its IPO, Reuters reported on Friday. These include Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices, Intel and Samsung Electronics.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARM":"ARM Holdings Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116494743","content_text":"SoftBank Group's Arm is aiming to raise up to $4.87 billion in the chip designer's U.S. initial public offering, a regulatory filing showed on Tuesday.SoftBank is offering 95.5 million American depository shares of the Cambridge, United Kingdom-based company for a price of between $47 and $51 apiece.Arm's return to the public markets will be a milestone for SoftBank, as it taps several marquee technology names as investors in the company whose designs power more than 99% of the world's smartphones.The listing is expected to buoy the IPO market globally and fuel other startups to move ahead with their offerings as Arm's success signals the return of investor appetite for high-growth technology companies.Reuters first reported on SoftBank's proposed price range for the IPO on Saturday. Sources also said it could possibly raise this range before the IPO prices, should investor demand prove strong.Arm has also already signed up many of its major clients as investors in its IPO, Reuters reported on Friday. These include Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Advanced Micro Devices, Intel and Samsung Electronics.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194203438985384,"gmtCreate":1688452563304,"gmtModify":1688452766971,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Leading autonomous vehicle developer? FSD is merely a L2 autonomous software. Many others ahead such as waymo and other Chinese developers. Tsla is a great company but way too expensive now imo","listText":"Leading autonomous vehicle developer? FSD is merely a L2 autonomous software. Many others ahead such as waymo and other Chinese developers. Tsla is a great company but way too expensive now imo","text":"Leading autonomous vehicle developer? FSD is merely a L2 autonomous software. Many others ahead such as waymo and other Chinese developers. Tsla is a great company but way too expensive now imo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194203438985384","repostId":"2348954328","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2348954328","pubTimestamp":1688448561,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2348954328?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-07-04 13:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's Deliveries Hit a Quarterly Record: Here's Why the Stock Is a Buy Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2348954328","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla just shocked investors with a surprising acceleration of growth in electric vehicle deliveries.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla </a> is due to report its financial results for the second quarter of 2023 (ended June 30) on July 19. However, as always, it released its quarterly electric vehicle production and customer delivery numbers ahead of time.</p><p>Both figures were at record highs, suggesting that the company&#39;s recent price cuts are having a positive impact on demand.</p><p>Selling a higher volume of cars at a lower profit margin is a strategic move by CEO Elon Musk, not only to fend off growing competition in the electric vehicle industry, but also because it creates an even bigger long-term opportunity for the company. Here&#39;s why.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e1eccd0d9264e1c4caf8f2deb2b939\" alt=\"Image source: Tesla.\" title=\"Image source: Tesla.\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"/><span>Image source: Tesla.</span></p><h2>Tesla delivered a record number of cars in Q2</h2><p>Consumers have struggled under the pressure of high inflation and rising interest rates over the past year, and that&#39;s having a direct impact on the demand for big-ticket purchases like cars. As a result, Tesla has been trimming the price of its electric vehicles in 2023 to bring new buyers into the fold.</p><p>There&#39;s clear evidence it&#39;s working; the company delivered 422,875 cars to customers in the first quarter, which was a 36% year-over-year increase. And the freshly released Q2 figure was 466,140, marking a whopping 83% jump compared to the year-ago period -- a massive growth acceleration.</p><p>Of course, slashing prices to sell more vehicles comes at a cost. In Q1, Tesla&#39;s industry-leading gross profit margin fell to 19.3%, far below the year-ago figure of 29.1%. It was still much higher than the overall 15% gross margin of <strong>Ford</strong>, for example, but we won&#39;t know Tesla&#39;s most recent second-quarter result until July 19.</p><p>However, the margin Tesla earns by manufacturing and selling each vehicle might not matter in the long term. Why? Because the company is a leading developer of fully autonomous self-driving software, which could be released to the public later this year. Musk says the average passenger vehicle spends just 12 hours per week on the road, so by installing self-driving software, it could become a robotaxi and operate within an autonomous ride-hailing network.</p><p>The vehicle would earn revenue that would be split between its owner and Tesla, creating a brand-new industry that Cathie Wood&#39;s Ark Investment Management says could generate $4 trillion in revenue in the next five years. Musk says autonomous robotaxis could transform Tesla&#39;s economics, increasing its gross margin to over 70% in the long run because each car would potentially earn money for the company in perpetuity. As a result, Musk wants as many Tesla vehicles on the road as possible, even if it means sacrificing short-term profits from each sale.</p><h2>Why Tesla stock is a buy now</h2><p>Tesla stock is on a tear in 2023 with a 159% gain so far, but it&#39;s still down 31% from its all-time high following the dramatic sell-off in the technology sector last year. It appears relatively expensive based on traditional valuation metrics like the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio; the company has generated $3.85 in earnings per share over the last four quarters, which gives the stock a P/E of 72.8.</p><p>That&#39;s more than twice as expensive as Tesla&#39;s peers in the technology sector, represented by the <strong>Nasdaq-100</strong> index, which trades at an average P/E of 31.1. But the stock market is a forward-looking machine, and Tesla&#39;s future potential is the reason investors are willing to pay a premium. </p><p>For example, Tesla has told investors it expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, but it has already made more than 920,000 in the first half, which puts it on track to beat that figure. That&#39;s prompting investors to reconsider their forecasts, which is why the stock jumped 7% immediately following its Q2 production and deliveries news. Plus, the company intends to dramatically increase production going forward by operating as many as 12 Gigafactories around the world by 2030 (up from just four today). That would presumably give Tesla the capacity to make 20 million cars per year. </p><p>But, as mentioned above, the real profit potential will likely come from its self-driving software and the creation of a ride-hailing network. The more cars Tesla gets on the road now, the more money it stands to make in the future, so the whopping 83% increase in Q2 deliveries could have a compounding effect on the company&#39;s financials in the long run.</p><p>As a result, it&#39;s unlikely Tesla stock will remain 31% below its all-time high for much longer. However, investors who do buy it now should plan to hold on for at least five years to maximize the probability of earning a positive return.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's Deliveries Hit a Quarterly Record: Here's Why the Stock Is a Buy Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's Deliveries Hit a Quarterly Record: Here's Why the Stock Is a Buy Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-04 13:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/why-buy-tesla-stock-after-record-deliveries/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla  is due to report its financial results for the second quarter of 2023 (ended June 30) on July 19. However, as always, it released its quarterly electric vehicle production and customer delivery...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/why-buy-tesla-stock-after-record-deliveries/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/03/why-buy-tesla-stock-after-record-deliveries/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2348954328","content_text":"Tesla  is due to report its financial results for the second quarter of 2023 (ended June 30) on July 19. However, as always, it released its quarterly electric vehicle production and customer delivery numbers ahead of time.Both figures were at record highs, suggesting that the company's recent price cuts are having a positive impact on demand.Selling a higher volume of cars at a lower profit margin is a strategic move by CEO Elon Musk, not only to fend off growing competition in the electric vehicle industry, but also because it creates an even bigger long-term opportunity for the company. Here's why.Image source: Tesla.Tesla delivered a record number of cars in Q2Consumers have struggled under the pressure of high inflation and rising interest rates over the past year, and that's having a direct impact on the demand for big-ticket purchases like cars. As a result, Tesla has been trimming the price of its electric vehicles in 2023 to bring new buyers into the fold.There's clear evidence it's working; the company delivered 422,875 cars to customers in the first quarter, which was a 36% year-over-year increase. And the freshly released Q2 figure was 466,140, marking a whopping 83% jump compared to the year-ago period -- a massive growth acceleration.Of course, slashing prices to sell more vehicles comes at a cost. In Q1, Tesla's industry-leading gross profit margin fell to 19.3%, far below the year-ago figure of 29.1%. It was still much higher than the overall 15% gross margin of Ford, for example, but we won't know Tesla's most recent second-quarter result until July 19.However, the margin Tesla earns by manufacturing and selling each vehicle might not matter in the long term. Why? Because the company is a leading developer of fully autonomous self-driving software, which could be released to the public later this year. Musk says the average passenger vehicle spends just 12 hours per week on the road, so by installing self-driving software, it could become a robotaxi and operate within an autonomous ride-hailing network.The vehicle would earn revenue that would be split between its owner and Tesla, creating a brand-new industry that Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management says could generate $4 trillion in revenue in the next five years. Musk says autonomous robotaxis could transform Tesla's economics, increasing its gross margin to over 70% in the long run because each car would potentially earn money for the company in perpetuity. As a result, Musk wants as many Tesla vehicles on the road as possible, even if it means sacrificing short-term profits from each sale.Why Tesla stock is a buy nowTesla stock is on a tear in 2023 with a 159% gain so far, but it's still down 31% from its all-time high following the dramatic sell-off in the technology sector last year. It appears relatively expensive based on traditional valuation metrics like the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio; the company has generated $3.85 in earnings per share over the last four quarters, which gives the stock a P/E of 72.8.That's more than twice as expensive as Tesla's peers in the technology sector, represented by the Nasdaq-100 index, which trades at an average P/E of 31.1. But the stock market is a forward-looking machine, and Tesla's future potential is the reason investors are willing to pay a premium. For example, Tesla has told investors it expects to produce 1.8 million cars in 2023, but it has already made more than 920,000 in the first half, which puts it on track to beat that figure. That's prompting investors to reconsider their forecasts, which is why the stock jumped 7% immediately following its Q2 production and deliveries news. Plus, the company intends to dramatically increase production going forward by operating as many as 12 Gigafactories around the world by 2030 (up from just four today). That would presumably give Tesla the capacity to make 20 million cars per year. But, as mentioned above, the real profit potential will likely come from its self-driving software and the creation of a ride-hailing network. The more cars Tesla gets on the road now, the more money it stands to make in the future, so the whopping 83% increase in Q2 deliveries could have a compounding effect on the company's financials in the long run.As a result, it's unlikely Tesla stock will remain 31% below its all-time high for much longer. However, investors who do buy it now should plan to hold on for at least five years to maximize the probability of earning a positive return.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":81,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947654685,"gmtCreate":1683107845248,"gmtModify":1683107849042,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What bear market? Sp500 still above 4100","listText":"What bear market? Sp500 still above 4100","text":"What bear market? Sp500 still above 4100","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947654685","repostId":"2332999692","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2332999692","pubTimestamp":1683127526,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2332999692?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-03 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve Meeting Could Mark This Bear Market’s End","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2332999692","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The market will seek clarity on the odds of a June rate hike on Wednesday. And Powell will provide t","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li><p>The market will seek clarity on the odds of a June rate hike on Wednesday. And Powell will provide that clarity in the press conference.</p></li><li><p>If Powell tilts hawkish and suggests another hike is likely, stocks will sink. If he tilts dovish and suggests a pause is likely, stocks will soar.</p></li><li><p>And the Fed has a dual mandate: stable prices and full employment. It’s hiked rates enough to the point of reattaining price stability. Yet it appears to be just one to two hikes away from killing the labor market, meaning it’s likely to pause in June.</p></li></ul><p>Tomorrow, May 3, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest plans for U.S. monetary policy. And it may be the most important day of the year for stocks. </p><p>Why? </p><p>Because it could determine whether the stock market falls back into an ugly bear market or starts a <strong>new bull market breakout.</strong> </p><p>That’s because tomorrow is so-called “Fed Day.” At around 2 p.m. EST, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its rate-hike decision for the month of May. Thirty minutes later, Fed Board Chair Jerome Powell will take the stage in a live press conference to answer questions about the Fed’s policy stance and potential future rate hikes. </p><p><strong><em>This Federal Reserve press conference will be the make-or-break moment for stocks. </em></strong></p><p>Pretty much everyone knows the Fed is going to raise interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. The futures market is pricing in 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike and just 10% odds of no hike. All signs point to another rate hike on Wednesday, and therefore, another rate hike is already priced into the stock market.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd826e8cfff0113dfd05c9af37cab745\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"474\"/></p><p>But investors are much less certain about what the Fed will do at its next meeting in June. Futures pricing suggests a 70% chance the Fed stops its rate-hike campaign next month. But that means the market is still pricing in a 30% chance for another rate hike. </p><p>The market will seek clarity on the odds of a June rate hike on Wednesday. </p><p><strong>And Powell will provide that clarity in the press conference. </strong></p><p>Therefore, if Powell tilts hawkish and suggests another hike is likely, stocks will sink. If he tilts dovish and suggests a pause is likely, stocks will soar. </p><p>It is no coincidence that, from a technical perspective, the <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> currently sits at a critical level (4,180). And it could either prove to be the launching point for the next leg higher in the 2023 stock market rally – or that rally’s ceiling.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc0571ecd7bc4832a98430eaba203480\" tg-width=\"1173\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><p><strong>The bulk of evidence strongly suggests Powell will lean dovish and stocks will soar. </strong></p><h2>Determining the Fed’s Next Moves</h2><p>Let’s look at the things that determine the Fed’s decision-making: inflation and employment. </p><p>For starters, inflation is coming down rapidly. The Fed has already successfully cut inflation in half from its peak, and most signs suggest inflation will continue to decline. </p><p>Commodity prices keep falling. Global supply chains have been fully restored. Consumer spending is slowing. </p><p>And, perhaps most importantly, <strong><em>bank lending is collapsing.</em></strong> </p><p>Bank lending fuels the U.S. economy. The more banks lend, the more money consumers and enterprises have to spend and the higher the demand side of the inflation equation. </p><p>But bank lending has fallen off a cliff over the past month, driven mostly by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and, most recently, First Republic. </p><p>Indeed, bank lending over the past four weeks has dropped by the most it has since the 2008 financial crisis and by the third most in the history of the U.S. economy.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ce5557ab647ed6220ef6bfce4dee6a\" tg-width=\"1174\" tg-height=\"510\"/></p><p>With bank lending collapsing, inflation should keep collapsing toward the Fed’s 2% target. </p><p>In fact, just look at the last two times bank lending crashed like it is crashing today: late 2001 and late 2008. Both times, the Fed was cutting rates and inflation was at 1%. </p><p><strong>The Fed appears to have solved the inflation problem. </strong></p><p>Consequently, it potentially created a labor problem. </p><p>Throughout 2022, the theme of the labor market was “labor shortage.” Now, it’s “job cuts.” For the first time since early 2021, companies are mentioning “job cuts” more frequently than “labor shortage” on their conference calls.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/200d7f84a0f7b7159f10a1d4ebb2962f\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"532\"/></p><p>The labor market shift has begun. </p><p>And the Fed has a dual mandate: stable prices and full employment. It’s hiked rates enough to the point of reattaining price stability. Yet it appears to be just one to two hikes away from killing the labor market. </p><p>Considering this dual mandate, then, the Fed should slam the pause button in June. </p><p><strong>We suspect Powell will hint as much tomorrow in the press conference. </strong></p><h2>The Final Word on the Federal Reserve</h2><p>It’s easy to play the “tough guy” and stay aggressive with rate hikes when everyone still has a job. It is near impossible to do so when people start losing their jobs. </p><p>Well, people are starting to lose their jobs. Historically speaking, this is when the Fed pauses. </p><p>And when the Fed pauses, stocks tend to rally.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf210429100ba7a5376d93db1b2e9346\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p>In short, stocks are on the cusp of a major make-or-break moment. And whether or not we sprint into a new bull market or remain stuck in a bear market could be determined tomorrow. </p><p>We think the odds rest strongly in the bulls’ favor. </p><p>Either way, it is time to buckle up. </p><p>If we do get a dovish Fed and huge breakout rally, then we strongly believe <strong>this portfolio of stocks</strong> will absolutely soar – with potential returns of 50%-plus by summer’s end.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve Meeting Could Mark This Bear Market’s End</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTomorrow’s Federal Reserve Meeting Could Mark This Bear Market’s End\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-03 23:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/05/tomorrows-federal-reserve-meeting-could-mark-this-bear-markets-end/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The market will seek clarity on the odds of a June rate hike on Wednesday. And Powell will provide that clarity in the press conference.If Powell tilts hawkish and suggests another hike is likely, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/05/tomorrows-federal-reserve-meeting-could-mark-this-bear-markets-end/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/05/tomorrows-federal-reserve-meeting-could-mark-this-bear-markets-end/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2332999692","content_text":"The market will seek clarity on the odds of a June rate hike on Wednesday. And Powell will provide that clarity in the press conference.If Powell tilts hawkish and suggests another hike is likely, stocks will sink. If he tilts dovish and suggests a pause is likely, stocks will soar.And the Fed has a dual mandate: stable prices and full employment. It’s hiked rates enough to the point of reattaining price stability. Yet it appears to be just one to two hikes away from killing the labor market, meaning it’s likely to pause in June.Tomorrow, May 3, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest plans for U.S. monetary policy. And it may be the most important day of the year for stocks. Why? Because it could determine whether the stock market falls back into an ugly bear market or starts a new bull market breakout. That’s because tomorrow is so-called “Fed Day.” At around 2 p.m. EST, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its rate-hike decision for the month of May. Thirty minutes later, Fed Board Chair Jerome Powell will take the stage in a live press conference to answer questions about the Fed’s policy stance and potential future rate hikes. This Federal Reserve press conference will be the make-or-break moment for stocks. Pretty much everyone knows the Fed is going to raise interest rates by 25 basis points tomorrow. The futures market is pricing in 90% odds of a 25-basis-point hike and just 10% odds of no hike. All signs point to another rate hike on Wednesday, and therefore, another rate hike is already priced into the stock market.But investors are much less certain about what the Fed will do at its next meeting in June. Futures pricing suggests a 70% chance the Fed stops its rate-hike campaign next month. But that means the market is still pricing in a 30% chance for another rate hike. The market will seek clarity on the odds of a June rate hike on Wednesday. And Powell will provide that clarity in the press conference. Therefore, if Powell tilts hawkish and suggests another hike is likely, stocks will sink. If he tilts dovish and suggests a pause is likely, stocks will soar. It is no coincidence that, from a technical perspective, the S&P 500 currently sits at a critical level (4,180). And it could either prove to be the launching point for the next leg higher in the 2023 stock market rally – or that rally’s ceiling.The bulk of evidence strongly suggests Powell will lean dovish and stocks will soar. Determining the Fed’s Next MovesLet’s look at the things that determine the Fed’s decision-making: inflation and employment. For starters, inflation is coming down rapidly. The Fed has already successfully cut inflation in half from its peak, and most signs suggest inflation will continue to decline. Commodity prices keep falling. Global supply chains have been fully restored. Consumer spending is slowing. And, perhaps most importantly, bank lending is collapsing. Bank lending fuels the U.S. economy. The more banks lend, the more money consumers and enterprises have to spend and the higher the demand side of the inflation equation. But bank lending has fallen off a cliff over the past month, driven mostly by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and, most recently, First Republic. Indeed, bank lending over the past four weeks has dropped by the most it has since the 2008 financial crisis and by the third most in the history of the U.S. economy.With bank lending collapsing, inflation should keep collapsing toward the Fed’s 2% target. In fact, just look at the last two times bank lending crashed like it is crashing today: late 2001 and late 2008. Both times, the Fed was cutting rates and inflation was at 1%. The Fed appears to have solved the inflation problem. Consequently, it potentially created a labor problem. Throughout 2022, the theme of the labor market was “labor shortage.” Now, it’s “job cuts.” For the first time since early 2021, companies are mentioning “job cuts” more frequently than “labor shortage” on their conference calls.The labor market shift has begun. And the Fed has a dual mandate: stable prices and full employment. It’s hiked rates enough to the point of reattaining price stability. Yet it appears to be just one to two hikes away from killing the labor market. Considering this dual mandate, then, the Fed should slam the pause button in June. We suspect Powell will hint as much tomorrow in the press conference. The Final Word on the Federal ReserveIt’s easy to play the “tough guy” and stay aggressive with rate hikes when everyone still has a job. It is near impossible to do so when people start losing their jobs. Well, people are starting to lose their jobs. Historically speaking, this is when the Fed pauses. And when the Fed pauses, stocks tend to rally.In short, stocks are on the cusp of a major make-or-break moment. And whether or not we sprint into a new bull market or remain stuck in a bear market could be determined tomorrow. We think the odds rest strongly in the bulls’ favor. Either way, it is time to buckle up. If we do get a dovish Fed and huge breakout rally, then we strongly believe this portfolio of stocks will absolutely soar – with potential returns of 50%-plus by summer’s end.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947373277,"gmtCreate":1682610157500,"gmtModify":1682610161613,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just install waymo on a tesla. You get a real self driving car immediately","listText":"Just install waymo on a tesla. You get a real self driving car immediately","text":"Just install waymo on a tesla. You get a real self driving car immediately","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947373277","repostId":"1102618472","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102618472","pubTimestamp":1682607274,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102618472?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-27 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":" Tesla: Q1 Margin Squeeze, But Self-Driving Adds Huge Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102618472","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryTesla has resurrected its \"low margin\", \"affordable\" EV strategy which I believe should help ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Tesla has resurrected its &#34;low margin&#34;, &#34;affordable&#34; EV strategy which I believe should help to boost market share, as well as undercut the competition thanks to its economies of scale.</p></li><li><p>The company missed both its revenue and earnings forecast, despite reporting record deliveries and production numbers.</p></li><li><p>My intrinsic valuation model and forecasts indicate Tesla is undervalued in a base case scenario and even more undervalued in a &#34;best case&#34;, full autonomy, Robots (Optimus) etc.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e94c2a45c7301b8ea00c807d826e5dd\" alt=\"Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory\" title=\"Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/><span>Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory</span></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has recently announced intriguing results for the first quarter of 2023. The company reported &#34;record&#34; production and delivery numbers, but still missed analyst forecasts for earnings and revenue, so what happened? Elon Musk announced plans to continue to reduce prices, in an effort to focus on a lower-margin mass-market product. This wasn&#39;t taken well by Wall Street with firms such as Truist Securities, downgrading Tesla from a &#34;Buy&#34; to a &#34;Hold&#34; due to this concern. However, I believe this isn&#39;t a new strategy for Tesla (and I will show examples later in this post). In addition, Tesla has racked up more autonomous driving miles than any other automaker (according to my estimates) and thus has a competitive advantage in this regard. In this post, I&#39;m going to discuss why Tesla&#39;s lower margin strategy could prove to be very lucrative long term thanks to its autonomous driving technology, before revealing my valuation model and forecasts for the stock, let&#39;s dive in.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e1d52cdbf0b1e3a37d1bcbed4d3f3\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>The &#34;New Strategy&#34; is Not New</h2><p>The first part of my thesis makes the case that Tesla&#39;s &#34;new strategy&#34; of focusing on &#34;higher volumes and a large fleet&#34;, as opposed to &#34;lower volume and higher margin&#34;, is not entirely new. Avid Tesla followers may recall that Elon Musk&#39;s long-term vision has always been to create an affordable mass-market EV. In fact, I have discovered at least four quotes from Musk in the past where he stated just that;</p><ol><li><p>&#34;I think the most important thing is to make cars that people can <strong>afford</strong>&#34; - <em>Elon Musk (May 2013, Bloomberg).</em></p></li><li><p>&#34;We must at least aspire to produce cars that are more <strong>affordable</strong> than the Model 3 in order to achieve our mission.&#34; - <em>Elon Musk (Tesla&#39;s Q1 2017 earnings call).</em></p></li><li><p>&#34;Our long-term goal is to be able to create a <strong>$25,000 </strong>electric vehicle that is also fully autonomous.&#34; - <em>Elon Musk (Tesla Battery Day event, 2020).</em></p></li><li><p>Our aspiration is still to try to make the cars as affordable as possible, and to ultimately make<strong> Tesla as affordable as possible</strong>.&#34; - <em>Elon Musk (Tesla Q3 2020 earnings call).</em></p></li></ol><p>Therefore in 2023, when Elon Musk renewed his focus on cost-effective or &#34;affordable&#34; Tesla&#39;s it wasn&#39;t a surprise to me. In fact, this could also be perfect timing, as many analysts have forecast a &#34;recession&#34; and thus it would make sense to offer consumers the greatest value possible. In addition, as Tesla looks to have the largest manufacturing footprint of any pure EV maker (5 Gigafactories globally), then it could be assumed that Tesla could in fact offer a cheaper alternative, than its competitors due to economies of scale.</p><p>This strategy is also aligned with the key success strategy which helped Amazon dominate the e-commerce world. This was dubbed as &#34;Scale economics shared&#34;, in that it &#34;gives back&#34; savings made to its consumers by continually lowering prices. Of course, Tesla hasn&#39;t completely given up on profits (that would be crazy). The company aims to &#34;harvest significant profits&#34; in the future through the sales of its fully autonomous self-driving software.</p><h2>How far is Tesla from full self-driving?</h2><p>Critics will say Elon Musk has been promising full self-driving for many years, and I can&#39;t argue with that point. Back in 2015, Elon Musk promised full autonomy &#34;within two years&#34;, at an MIT Symposium. Then in 2019 at an Autonomy Day Event, Musk promised &#34;full autonomy with regulatory approval in 2020&#34;. However, I personally believe we are now very close. Over &#34;150 million miles&#34; have been driven in Full Self Driving beta mode and that number is &#34;growing exponentially&#34;, according to Musk in the Q1, 2023 earnings call. This number of miles is key, as anyone who understands AI models will tell you, the more training data, the greater accuracy can be achieved. If we compare this figure to the &#34;just&#34; 1 million self-driving miles reported by Google&#39;s Waymo and Cruise, as of early 2023, Tesla looks to be very far ahead. Even if we compare this to &#34;safety driver&#34; miles, reports indicate Waymo racked up &#34;just&#34; 20 million miles in total, in 2020, which means Tesla likely has 7.5 times the number of miles. This also isn&#39;t taking into account the 150 million miles Tesla has reported is just for its latest &#34;beta&#34; software, I believe.</p><p>Elon Musk also recently stated that to his &#34;best knowledge&#34; the &#34;current hardware&#34; can achieve full autonomy. Therefore, in theory, Tesla could do an over-the-air software update and turn almost every Tesla on the road (over 1 million vehicles) into a full self-driving vehicle. Of course, this would be done for a fee charged to those who choose to pay and this is where Tesla aims to capture back its margins.</p><p>The value of an autonomous vehicle should also be not understated, this isn&#39;t just about being able to take long road trips without the achy arms, the potential is huge. For example, a fully self-driving vehicle could effectively replace the passenger railroad industry (a $250 billion market globally) by offering more personal point-to-point service. In addition, a new &#34;third space&#34; will likely be created in which one could use a Tesla as a home office, entertainment center, etc.</p><p>A fully autonomous vehicle can also be used to generate funds, for the individual when they are not using it. For example, you could be in the office and your Tesla could be doing ride-hailing around a city or doing food deliveries. Therefore the platform could disrupt Uber (UBER) which is valued at $62 billion, at the time of writing.</p><p>At Tesla&#39;s AI day in 2020, the company revealed details of Dojo which it claimed to be the &#34;fastest&#34; AI training supercomputer in the world, which was so powerful it actually tripped the power grid in Palo Alto, California.</p><p>The Dojo platform has huge potential and could be utilized as a high-margin &#34;sellable service&#34; similar to AWS cloud. AWS is the profit engine of Amazon (AMZN), driving 188% of its operating income, despite generating just ~14.35% of its total revenue, as of Q4,22. I discussed details of this in my previous post where I made the case that Amazon should spin off AWS, its most lucrative business segment (in my opinion).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4301aed406832dfd03a7349ad24a77a\" alt=\"Tesla ExaPOD Dojo Supercomputer (Tesla AI Day 2022)\" title=\"Tesla ExaPOD Dojo Supercomputer (Tesla AI Day 2022)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"572\"/><span>Tesla ExaPOD Dojo Supercomputer (Tesla AI Day 2022)</span></p><p>This Dojo platform and Tesla&#39;s developed custom chips (such as the D1) are also expected to be key components for &#34;Optimus&#34; Tesla&#39;s autonomous robot. An &#34;affordable&#34; robot in every home could become a reality and would be aligned extremely well with Tesla&#39;s current business model, technology, and strategy. The robotics industry is forecast to grow at a 14.3% compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] and reach a value of $30.8 billion by 2027 thus the potential is huge for Tesla.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b2513d46f366821137cb9c9636647a\" alt=\"Tesla Robot Optimus (AI Day 22)\" title=\"Tesla Robot Optimus (AI Day 22)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"/><span>Tesla Robot Optimus (AI Day 22)</span></p><h2>Financials and Valuation</h2><p>Tesla reported $23.33 billion in revenue which missed analyst forecasts by $26 million, despite increasing by a solid 24% year over year. This growth rate has slowed down substantially from the 34% reported in Q4,22 and the 55.95% in Q3,22, which looks to have been driven by both the &#34;recessionary&#34; environment as well as increasing competition. The good news is a &#34;price cut&#34; by Tesla should help to solve both issues. It should also be noted that Tesla reported &#34;record&#34; production and delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2023. The company generated 422,875 deliveries, which was up from the 405,278 reported in Q4,22. However, its sequential delivery growth rate has declined substantially from 17.87% in Q4,22 to just 4.34% by Q1,23, due to the aforementioned reasons. A positive is Tesla&#39;s production numbers have recovered with a record 440,808 reported for the first quarter of 2023, as the company resolved the issues at its Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p>In terms of the valuation for Tesla, I have updated my model since my last post with the latest financials for Q1,23. In addition, I have adjusted my revenue growth rate from 26% to 27% for &#34;next year&#34; on the back of the planned decrease in prices which I believe should help to spur demand. I have also increased my forecasted revenue growth rate from 31% to 32% in years 2 to 5, due to my expected rebound in the economy and consumer demand (post-2023), plus the price reductions. Keep in mind, this isn&#39;t taking into account the potential of Dojo and thus that would really add bonus optionality into the stock.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a6867fdea67873b01c770d7d395a41\" alt=\"Tesla stock valuation 1 (Created by author Deep Tech Insights)\" title=\"Tesla stock valuation 1 (Created by author Deep Tech Insights)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/><span>Tesla stock valuation 1 (Created by author Deep Tech Insights)</span></p><p>I previously forecast a 20% operating margin over the next 10 years, which I believe is still easily achievable. However, to be conservative and with Musk&#39;s renewed focus on lower margins I have stretched this out to be achievable over 12 years. This is still fairly conservative and only represents a 4% increase from the 16% margin achieved in Q4,22 or a 2% increase from the 18% margin achieved with R&amp;D expenses capitalized (as I have done in my model). Investors should be aware, that margins are likely to continue to dip as prices are slashed before we will see a reversion.</p><p>Tesla reported just a 12% operating margin in 2021 and 16.81% in 2022 and thus even with price cuts its margins are still solid at 11.42% reported for Q1,23, thanks to economies of scale. I believe we could see a further drop to around 8% or 10% (with R&amp;D capitalized) to be extreme, so I have estimated that for &#34;next year&#34; in my model. Given these estimates, by year four I expect a 14.69% operating margin before expansion.</p><p>I believe Tesla will unlikely decide to go back into &#34;unprofitable&#34; territory again, due to investor sentiment and S&amp;P 500 inclusion requirements.</p><p>It should also be noted that some of the price reduction is already baked in, as back in October 2022, Tesla announced its original price cuts by ~9% in China for the Model 3 and Model Y. Investors initially assumed this was just a response to competition (and it was to a certain extent). However, given the clarity of the long-term strategy, it&#39;s not a crazy amount. Also, price cuts in the U.S. by around $5,000 for each model may help to boost eligibility for the IRS tax credit of $7,500 which could help to boost demand. According to Tesla&#39;s website its Model S, 3, X, and Y qualify for this incentive (assuming other criteria are met).</p><p>In a best-case scenario, I believe Tesla&#39;s operating margin could surpass 24% (with full self-driving and AI as a service) which is slightly higher than the 23% average for a software company.</p><p>Tesla also has a strong balance sheet with $22.185 billion in cash and short-term investment, in addition, to $5.748 billion in long-term debt.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eb72ddef832d4117abbaaa4f7ec1686\" alt=\"Tesla stock valuation 2 (Created by author Ben at Deep Tech Insights)\" title=\"Tesla stock valuation 2 (Created by author Ben at Deep Tech Insights)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"656\"/><span>Tesla stock valuation 2 (Created by author Ben at Deep Tech Insights)</span></p><p>Given these factors, I get a fair value of ~$247.36 per share, and thus the stock is ~37.74% undervalued at the time of writing.</p><p>For the &#34;best case&#34; scenario, which includes the 24% operating margin for (full self-driving, AI as a service, and Optimus robots) I get a fair value of over $292.72 per share, which offers an even greater (47%) upside.</p><p>Tesla trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio = 5.2, which is ~36% cheaper than its 5-year average.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f022cf343666a222a0b16c0643b7bf5d\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Risks</h2><h3>Going Cheap could damage the brand</h3><p>The first Tesla vehicles such as the Roadster were widely adopted by celebrities such as Leonardo Dicaprio, as a &#34;do good&#34; and &#34;status&#34; statement. I personally believe Tesla vehicles are still seen as aspirational with some &#34;prestige&#34;. Therefore if Tesla drops its prices too much it could devalue the brand and its pricing power long term. For example, the luxury automaker Ferrari broke its sales record again in 2022 and saw its calls sell out, despite its Portofino M being priced at $250,000 and its Purosangue SUV costing nearly $400,000 each. Now of course, I don&#39;t put Tesla in the same category as a Ferrari but I consider them to be more closely aligned with Mercedes or Audi. Thus its brand positioning is just something for Tesla to be aware of as it continues to drop prices. There is also the &#34;risk&#34; of a race to the bottom in the EV industry. In fact, if history is to go by back in 1913, Henry Ford introduced the assembly line which the time to build and price of its Model T by 50-70% which resulted in hundreds of competitor car companies going bust and industry consolidation. This may seem bad at first glance but given Tesla and rival BYD&#39;s immense scale, I believe these two will be left standing as the dust settles.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>Tesla renewed focus on lower-margin, mass-market vehicles is a strategy that will likely result in short-term pain, but long-term gain. I believe this strategy is actually optimal given the forecasted recession, tepid consumer demand, and increasing competition. In addition, Tesla can continue to &#34;future sell&#34; the value of its full self-driving software and pending vehicles such as the Tesla Cybertruck (over 1.5 million pre-orders as of November 2022). If/when Tesla achieves full self-driving, this could offer huge optionality for the stock and actually change the world as we know it. But the good news is even from an investment standpoint, a base case scenario still indicates Tesla is undervalued intrinsically. Therefore I will deem the stock to be a &#34;buy&#34; for the long term.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Tesla: Q1 Margin Squeeze, But Self-Driving Adds Huge Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Tesla: Q1 Margin Squeeze, But Self-Driving Adds Huge Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-27 22:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4597206-tesla-q1-margin-squeeze-self-driving-upside-potential><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla has resurrected its \"low margin\", \"affordable\" EV strategy which I believe should help to boost market share, as well as undercut the competition thanks to its economies of scale.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4597206-tesla-q1-margin-squeeze-self-driving-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4597206-tesla-q1-margin-squeeze-self-driving-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1102618472","content_text":"SummaryTesla has resurrected its \"low margin\", \"affordable\" EV strategy which I believe should help to boost market share, as well as undercut the competition thanks to its economies of scale.The company missed both its revenue and earnings forecast, despite reporting record deliveries and production numbers.My intrinsic valuation model and forecasts indicate Tesla is undervalued in a base case scenario and even more undervalued in a \"best case\", full autonomy, Robots (Optimus) etc.Tesla Shanghai GigafactoryTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has recently announced intriguing results for the first quarter of 2023. The company reported \"record\" production and delivery numbers, but still missed analyst forecasts for earnings and revenue, so what happened? Elon Musk announced plans to continue to reduce prices, in an effort to focus on a lower-margin mass-market product. This wasn't taken well by Wall Street with firms such as Truist Securities, downgrading Tesla from a \"Buy\" to a \"Hold\" due to this concern. However, I believe this isn't a new strategy for Tesla (and I will show examples later in this post). In addition, Tesla has racked up more autonomous driving miles than any other automaker (according to my estimates) and thus has a competitive advantage in this regard. In this post, I'm going to discuss why Tesla's lower margin strategy could prove to be very lucrative long term thanks to its autonomous driving technology, before revealing my valuation model and forecasts for the stock, let's dive in.Data by YChartsThe \"New Strategy\" is Not NewThe first part of my thesis makes the case that Tesla's \"new strategy\" of focusing on \"higher volumes and a large fleet\", as opposed to \"lower volume and higher margin\", is not entirely new. Avid Tesla followers may recall that Elon Musk's long-term vision has always been to create an affordable mass-market EV. In fact, I have discovered at least four quotes from Musk in the past where he stated just that;\"I think the most important thing is to make cars that people can afford\" - Elon Musk (May 2013, Bloomberg).\"We must at least aspire to produce cars that are more affordable than the Model 3 in order to achieve our mission.\" - Elon Musk (Tesla's Q1 2017 earnings call).\"Our long-term goal is to be able to create a $25,000 electric vehicle that is also fully autonomous.\" - Elon Musk (Tesla Battery Day event, 2020).Our aspiration is still to try to make the cars as affordable as possible, and to ultimately make Tesla as affordable as possible.\" - Elon Musk (Tesla Q3 2020 earnings call).Therefore in 2023, when Elon Musk renewed his focus on cost-effective or \"affordable\" Tesla's it wasn't a surprise to me. In fact, this could also be perfect timing, as many analysts have forecast a \"recession\" and thus it would make sense to offer consumers the greatest value possible. In addition, as Tesla looks to have the largest manufacturing footprint of any pure EV maker (5 Gigafactories globally), then it could be assumed that Tesla could in fact offer a cheaper alternative, than its competitors due to economies of scale.This strategy is also aligned with the key success strategy which helped Amazon dominate the e-commerce world. This was dubbed as \"Scale economics shared\", in that it \"gives back\" savings made to its consumers by continually lowering prices. Of course, Tesla hasn't completely given up on profits (that would be crazy). The company aims to \"harvest significant profits\" in the future through the sales of its fully autonomous self-driving software.How far is Tesla from full self-driving?Critics will say Elon Musk has been promising full self-driving for many years, and I can't argue with that point. Back in 2015, Elon Musk promised full autonomy \"within two years\", at an MIT Symposium. Then in 2019 at an Autonomy Day Event, Musk promised \"full autonomy with regulatory approval in 2020\". However, I personally believe we are now very close. Over \"150 million miles\" have been driven in Full Self Driving beta mode and that number is \"growing exponentially\", according to Musk in the Q1, 2023 earnings call. This number of miles is key, as anyone who understands AI models will tell you, the more training data, the greater accuracy can be achieved. If we compare this figure to the \"just\" 1 million self-driving miles reported by Google's Waymo and Cruise, as of early 2023, Tesla looks to be very far ahead. Even if we compare this to \"safety driver\" miles, reports indicate Waymo racked up \"just\" 20 million miles in total, in 2020, which means Tesla likely has 7.5 times the number of miles. This also isn't taking into account the 150 million miles Tesla has reported is just for its latest \"beta\" software, I believe.Elon Musk also recently stated that to his \"best knowledge\" the \"current hardware\" can achieve full autonomy. Therefore, in theory, Tesla could do an over-the-air software update and turn almost every Tesla on the road (over 1 million vehicles) into a full self-driving vehicle. Of course, this would be done for a fee charged to those who choose to pay and this is where Tesla aims to capture back its margins.The value of an autonomous vehicle should also be not understated, this isn't just about being able to take long road trips without the achy arms, the potential is huge. For example, a fully self-driving vehicle could effectively replace the passenger railroad industry (a $250 billion market globally) by offering more personal point-to-point service. In addition, a new \"third space\" will likely be created in which one could use a Tesla as a home office, entertainment center, etc.A fully autonomous vehicle can also be used to generate funds, for the individual when they are not using it. For example, you could be in the office and your Tesla could be doing ride-hailing around a city or doing food deliveries. Therefore the platform could disrupt Uber (UBER) which is valued at $62 billion, at the time of writing.At Tesla's AI day in 2020, the company revealed details of Dojo which it claimed to be the \"fastest\" AI training supercomputer in the world, which was so powerful it actually tripped the power grid in Palo Alto, California.The Dojo platform has huge potential and could be utilized as a high-margin \"sellable service\" similar to AWS cloud. AWS is the profit engine of Amazon (AMZN), driving 188% of its operating income, despite generating just ~14.35% of its total revenue, as of Q4,22. I discussed details of this in my previous post where I made the case that Amazon should spin off AWS, its most lucrative business segment (in my opinion).Tesla ExaPOD Dojo Supercomputer (Tesla AI Day 2022)This Dojo platform and Tesla's developed custom chips (such as the D1) are also expected to be key components for \"Optimus\" Tesla's autonomous robot. An \"affordable\" robot in every home could become a reality and would be aligned extremely well with Tesla's current business model, technology, and strategy. The robotics industry is forecast to grow at a 14.3% compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] and reach a value of $30.8 billion by 2027 thus the potential is huge for Tesla.Tesla Robot Optimus (AI Day 22)Financials and ValuationTesla reported $23.33 billion in revenue which missed analyst forecasts by $26 million, despite increasing by a solid 24% year over year. This growth rate has slowed down substantially from the 34% reported in Q4,22 and the 55.95% in Q3,22, which looks to have been driven by both the \"recessionary\" environment as well as increasing competition. The good news is a \"price cut\" by Tesla should help to solve both issues. It should also be noted that Tesla reported \"record\" production and delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2023. The company generated 422,875 deliveries, which was up from the 405,278 reported in Q4,22. However, its sequential delivery growth rate has declined substantially from 17.87% in Q4,22 to just 4.34% by Q1,23, due to the aforementioned reasons. A positive is Tesla's production numbers have recovered with a record 440,808 reported for the first quarter of 2023, as the company resolved the issues at its Shanghai Gigafactory.In terms of the valuation for Tesla, I have updated my model since my last post with the latest financials for Q1,23. In addition, I have adjusted my revenue growth rate from 26% to 27% for \"next year\" on the back of the planned decrease in prices which I believe should help to spur demand. I have also increased my forecasted revenue growth rate from 31% to 32% in years 2 to 5, due to my expected rebound in the economy and consumer demand (post-2023), plus the price reductions. Keep in mind, this isn't taking into account the potential of Dojo and thus that would really add bonus optionality into the stock.Tesla stock valuation 1 (Created by author Deep Tech Insights)I previously forecast a 20% operating margin over the next 10 years, which I believe is still easily achievable. However, to be conservative and with Musk's renewed focus on lower margins I have stretched this out to be achievable over 12 years. This is still fairly conservative and only represents a 4% increase from the 16% margin achieved in Q4,22 or a 2% increase from the 18% margin achieved with R&D expenses capitalized (as I have done in my model). Investors should be aware, that margins are likely to continue to dip as prices are slashed before we will see a reversion.Tesla reported just a 12% operating margin in 2021 and 16.81% in 2022 and thus even with price cuts its margins are still solid at 11.42% reported for Q1,23, thanks to economies of scale. I believe we could see a further drop to around 8% or 10% (with R&D capitalized) to be extreme, so I have estimated that for \"next year\" in my model. Given these estimates, by year four I expect a 14.69% operating margin before expansion.I believe Tesla will unlikely decide to go back into \"unprofitable\" territory again, due to investor sentiment and S&P 500 inclusion requirements.It should also be noted that some of the price reduction is already baked in, as back in October 2022, Tesla announced its original price cuts by ~9% in China for the Model 3 and Model Y. Investors initially assumed this was just a response to competition (and it was to a certain extent). However, given the clarity of the long-term strategy, it's not a crazy amount. Also, price cuts in the U.S. by around $5,000 for each model may help to boost eligibility for the IRS tax credit of $7,500 which could help to boost demand. According to Tesla's website its Model S, 3, X, and Y qualify for this incentive (assuming other criteria are met).In a best-case scenario, I believe Tesla's operating margin could surpass 24% (with full self-driving and AI as a service) which is slightly higher than the 23% average for a software company.Tesla also has a strong balance sheet with $22.185 billion in cash and short-term investment, in addition, to $5.748 billion in long-term debt.Tesla stock valuation 2 (Created by author Ben at Deep Tech Insights)Given these factors, I get a fair value of ~$247.36 per share, and thus the stock is ~37.74% undervalued at the time of writing.For the \"best case\" scenario, which includes the 24% operating margin for (full self-driving, AI as a service, and Optimus robots) I get a fair value of over $292.72 per share, which offers an even greater (47%) upside.Tesla trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio = 5.2, which is ~36% cheaper than its 5-year average.Data by YChartsRisksGoing Cheap could damage the brandThe first Tesla vehicles such as the Roadster were widely adopted by celebrities such as Leonardo Dicaprio, as a \"do good\" and \"status\" statement. I personally believe Tesla vehicles are still seen as aspirational with some \"prestige\". Therefore if Tesla drops its prices too much it could devalue the brand and its pricing power long term. For example, the luxury automaker Ferrari broke its sales record again in 2022 and saw its calls sell out, despite its Portofino M being priced at $250,000 and its Purosangue SUV costing nearly $400,000 each. Now of course, I don't put Tesla in the same category as a Ferrari but I consider them to be more closely aligned with Mercedes or Audi. Thus its brand positioning is just something for Tesla to be aware of as it continues to drop prices. There is also the \"risk\" of a race to the bottom in the EV industry. In fact, if history is to go by back in 1913, Henry Ford introduced the assembly line which the time to build and price of its Model T by 50-70% which resulted in hundreds of competitor car companies going bust and industry consolidation. This may seem bad at first glance but given Tesla and rival BYD's immense scale, I believe these two will be left standing as the dust settles.Final ThoughtsTesla renewed focus on lower-margin, mass-market vehicles is a strategy that will likely result in short-term pain, but long-term gain. I believe this strategy is actually optimal given the forecasted recession, tepid consumer demand, and increasing competition. In addition, Tesla can continue to \"future sell\" the value of its full self-driving software and pending vehicles such as the Tesla Cybertruck (over 1.5 million pre-orders as of November 2022). If/when Tesla achieves full self-driving, this could offer huge optionality for the stock and actually change the world as we know it. But the good news is even from an investment standpoint, a base case scenario still indicates Tesla is undervalued intrinsically. Therefore I will deem the stock to be a \"buy\" for the long term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952337980,"gmtCreate":1674444096940,"gmtModify":1676538940687,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12-15 times of forward pe 2024? Personally I have my doubts.. Good luck to tesla bulls","listText":"12-15 times of forward pe 2024? Personally I have my doubts.. Good luck to tesla bulls","text":"12-15 times of forward pe 2024? Personally I have my doubts.. Good luck to tesla bulls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952337980","repostId":"2305998490","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958803399,"gmtCreate":1673670772812,"gmtModify":1676538873578,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shorted tsla and paid for it..&nbsp;","listText":"Shorted tsla and paid for it..&nbsp;","text":"Shorted tsla and paid for it..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958803399","repostId":"1152054962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152054962","pubTimestamp":1673667194,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152054962?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-14 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152054962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price c","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.</li><li>The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.</li><li>Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.</li></ul><p><b>Everything’s Gotta Go</b></p><p>Yesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.</p><p>The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.</p><p>The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (&#34;EVs&#34;) for their corporate stables at zero discount.)</p><p>It&#39;s not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.</p><p><b>The China Story</b></p><p>China has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.</p><p>One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.</p><p><b>The Margins. Always the Margins.</b></p><p>Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c914efc493b0dbd6b7ae597b905d0806\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F &amp; GM(Koyfin)</p><p>We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.</p><p>The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.</p><p>Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.</p><p><b>What To Do?</b></p><p>Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.</p><p>Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.</p><p>This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>The price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-14 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152054962","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.Everything’s Gotta GoYesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (\"EVs\") for their corporate stables at zero discount.)It's not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.The China StoryChina has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.The Margins. Always the Margins.Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F & GM(Koyfin)We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.What To Do?Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.The Bottom LineThe price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951255209,"gmtCreate":1673499045702,"gmtModify":1676538846747,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Drop","listText":"Drop","text":"Drop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951255209","repostId":"2302029346","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924411656,"gmtCreate":1672306187675,"gmtModify":1676538669389,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck","listText":"Good luck","text":"Good luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924411656","repostId":"1137209740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137209740","pubTimestamp":1672328467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137209740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-29 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137209740","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Tesla is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.</li><li>The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.</li><li>A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.</li><li>Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&amp;P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla&#39;s stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors &#34;Teslanaires&#34;. However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla&#39;s Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn&#39;t confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company&#39;s leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the &#34;anti-inflation act&#34; and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I&#39;m going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let&#39;s dive in.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a79a1ea5bc04bd0f7d6b837085e569e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><h3>Strong Financials</h3><p>Tesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b64a3820209ed9456f87830d2189af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Theaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla&#39;s best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57567a6966f9a88dec06edea0df2921f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)</p><p>As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said &#34;competition is coming&#34; for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f129b31bd55450cd9d2b4db301535\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla market share (Electrek)</p><p>Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b8dd476696262c736d8202f0eb711b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)</p><p>A positive for Tesla is it doesn&#39;t have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world&#39;s largest &#34;gigapress&#34;. Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is &#34;pretty easy&#34;, but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as &#34;easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required&#34; according to Musk.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0285620745fdf8528607519819ead673\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Semi(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new &#34;Megachargers&#34; announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the &#34;Megachargers&#34;.</p><p>Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to &#34;outstrip supply&#34;.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e9768e93dfbc30a6ed7f6a616288ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy storage (Q3,22 report)</p><p>Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a &#34;superintelligence&#34; quite easily given the component pieces are all available.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7fe2dfb674cd77a5935cb3ad7b34ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.</p><h3>Advanced Valuation</h3><p>I have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500a6571bf014bc4f705876a2b54d81f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&amp;D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b77d54dee36748f8aba2dbb017bd53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.</p><p>As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2a4393b0790f345f095c860ebcc51f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>Risks-Elon Musk Selling/Twitter</h3><p>A key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla&#39;s factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab90b0248581ffdd6e1053e959dabb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)</p><p>Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter&#39;s debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk&#39;s mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642e9c75c64b767a55648c6514f3739a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)</p><p>Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.</p><h3>Final Thoughts</h3><p>Tesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously &#34;high&#34; valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla&#39;s technology advantages should keep them ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-29 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137209740","content_text":"SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.Tesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla's stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors \"Teslanaires\". However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla's Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn't confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company's leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the \"anti-inflation act\" and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I'm going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let's dive in.Data byYChartsStrong FinancialsTesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.Data by YChartsTheaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla's best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said \"competition is coming\" for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.Tesla market share (Electrek)Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)A positive for Tesla is it doesn't have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world's largest \"gigapress\". Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is \"pretty easy\", but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.Tesla's rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as \"easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required\" according to Musk.Tesla Semi(Tesla)Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new \"Megachargers\" announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the \"Megachargers\".Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to \"outstrip supply\".Energy storage (Q3,22 report)Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a \"superintelligence\" quite easily given the component pieces are all available.Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.Advanced ValuationI have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.Data by YChartsRisks-Elon Musk Selling/TwitterA key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla's factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter's debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk's mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.Final ThoughtsTesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously \"high\" valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla's technology advantages should keep them ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9925335842,"gmtCreate":1671929866787,"gmtModify":1676538611575,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Merry Christmas everyone","listText":"Merry Christmas everyone","text":"Merry Christmas everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925335842","repostId":"1192326933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192326933","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672011741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192326933?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-26 07:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192326933","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. ChristmasDay hasarrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c0d643f9647f8bf16257138dcbed8a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p>The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.</p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.</p><p>The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p><p>The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-26 07:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c0d643f9647f8bf16257138dcbed8a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p>The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.</p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.</p><p>The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p><p>The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192326933","content_text":"U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929612756,"gmtCreate":1670647633776,"gmtModify":1676538412316,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's the point in being so rich if you can't even buy a peaceful night's rest","listText":"What's the point in being so rich if you can't even buy a peaceful night's rest","text":"What's the point in being so rich if you can't even buy a peaceful night's rest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929612756","repostId":"1162956047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162956047","pubTimestamp":1670641810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162956047?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Probes FTX Founder for Fraud, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162956047","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Scope of inquiry includes transfers around time of bankruptcyIt’s part of broad effort by prosecutor","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Scope of inquiry includes transfers around time of bankruptcy</li><li>It’s part of broad effort by prosecutors to track client funds</li></ul><p>US prosecutors, laying the groundwork for a potential fraud case against Sam Bankman-Fried and others involved in the collapse of cryptocurrency giant FTX, are scrutinizing how funds held by the exchange operator moved outside the US as it was hurtling toward bankruptcy, according to a person familiar with the matter.</p><p>Prosecutors are closely examining whether hundreds of millions of dollars were improperly transferred to the Bahamas around the time of FTX’s Nov. 11 bankruptcy filing in Delaware, the person said, asking not to be named without authorization to discuss the case publicly.</p><p>As Justice Department officials embark on a sweeping investigation into how FTX handled customers’ cash and assets, they met this week with FTX’s court-appointed overseers to discuss materials they aim to gather, the person said. They’re also digging into whether FTX broke the law by transferring funds to Alameda Research, the bankrupt investment firm also founded by Bankman-Fried, an area of inquiry that has been reported previously.</p><p>Bankman-Fried, who’s in the Bahamas and hasn’t been charged with any crimes, has admitted to grievous managerial errors at FTX but steadfastly denied that he ever knowingly misused customers’ funds. A spokesperson for Bankman-Fried declined to comment on Friday.</p><p>The <i>New York Times</i> reported this week that federal prosecutors are also examining whether Bankman-Fried engaged in market manipulation by orchestrating trades that led to the collapse of the TerraUSD ecosystem earlier this year.</p><p>Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, including Assistant US Attorney Nicolas Roos, met for about two hours this week in a conference room in lower Manhattan with dozens of people investigating FTX’s collapse. Potential charges were not discussed at the organizational meeting. A spokesperson for the Southern District declined to comment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/661e84b000f8b6c98785f5dde1ac1991\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>John Ray arrives at bankruptcy court in Wilmington, Delaware, on Nov. 22.Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg</span></p><p>The meeting included officials from that office and the Justice Department in Washington, agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the bankruptcy team led by John J. Ray III, who was appointed FTX’s chief executive officer last month. Lawyers for FTX from Sullivan &amp; Cromwell, including former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement director Steve Peikin and former Manhattan federal prosecutor Nicole Friedlander, were also present, the people said.</p><p>Roos helped prosecute Nikola Corp. founder Trevor Milton, who was convicted in October of misleading investors in the electric truck company.</p><p>Bankman-Fried has given a series of media interviews in the past month describing accounting mistakes that obscured the extent of FTX’s ties with Alameda and the risks that created. On Friday, he said on Twitter that he’s willing to testify at a Dec. 13 hearing before the US House Financial Services Committee about the disintegration of his crypto empire.</p><p>Bahamas-based FTX and more than 100 related entities, including the company’s US arm, sent shock waves across the crypto ecosystem with their bankruptcy filing last month. The group and its founder now face scrutiny from regulators and prosecutors in the US and overseas.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Probes FTX Founder for Fraud, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Probes FTX Founder for Fraud, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-10 11:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/us-probes-ftx-founder-for-fraud-examines-cash-flows-to-bahamas><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Scope of inquiry includes transfers around time of bankruptcyIt’s part of broad effort by prosecutors to track client fundsUS prosecutors, laying the groundwork for a potential fraud case against Sam ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/us-probes-ftx-founder-for-fraud-examines-cash-flows-to-bahamas\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/us-probes-ftx-founder-for-fraud-examines-cash-flows-to-bahamas","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162956047","content_text":"Scope of inquiry includes transfers around time of bankruptcyIt’s part of broad effort by prosecutors to track client fundsUS prosecutors, laying the groundwork for a potential fraud case against Sam Bankman-Fried and others involved in the collapse of cryptocurrency giant FTX, are scrutinizing how funds held by the exchange operator moved outside the US as it was hurtling toward bankruptcy, according to a person familiar with the matter.Prosecutors are closely examining whether hundreds of millions of dollars were improperly transferred to the Bahamas around the time of FTX’s Nov. 11 bankruptcy filing in Delaware, the person said, asking not to be named without authorization to discuss the case publicly.As Justice Department officials embark on a sweeping investigation into how FTX handled customers’ cash and assets, they met this week with FTX’s court-appointed overseers to discuss materials they aim to gather, the person said. They’re also digging into whether FTX broke the law by transferring funds to Alameda Research, the bankrupt investment firm also founded by Bankman-Fried, an area of inquiry that has been reported previously.Bankman-Fried, who’s in the Bahamas and hasn’t been charged with any crimes, has admitted to grievous managerial errors at FTX but steadfastly denied that he ever knowingly misused customers’ funds. A spokesperson for Bankman-Fried declined to comment on Friday.The New York Times reported this week that federal prosecutors are also examining whether Bankman-Fried engaged in market manipulation by orchestrating trades that led to the collapse of the TerraUSD ecosystem earlier this year.Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, including Assistant US Attorney Nicolas Roos, met for about two hours this week in a conference room in lower Manhattan with dozens of people investigating FTX’s collapse. Potential charges were not discussed at the organizational meeting. A spokesperson for the Southern District declined to comment.John Ray arrives at bankruptcy court in Wilmington, Delaware, on Nov. 22.Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/BloombergThe meeting included officials from that office and the Justice Department in Washington, agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the bankruptcy team led by John J. Ray III, who was appointed FTX’s chief executive officer last month. Lawyers for FTX from Sullivan & Cromwell, including former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement director Steve Peikin and former Manhattan federal prosecutor Nicole Friedlander, were also present, the people said.Roos helped prosecute Nikola Corp. founder Trevor Milton, who was convicted in October of misleading investors in the electric truck company.Bankman-Fried has given a series of media interviews in the past month describing accounting mistakes that obscured the extent of FTX’s ties with Alameda and the risks that created. On Friday, he said on Twitter that he’s willing to testify at a Dec. 13 hearing before the US House Financial Services Committee about the disintegration of his crypto empire.Bahamas-based FTX and more than 100 related entities, including the company’s US arm, sent shock waves across the crypto ecosystem with their bankruptcy filing last month. The group and its founder now face scrutiny from regulators and prosecutors in the US and overseas.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929003511,"gmtCreate":1670555172734,"gmtModify":1676538393154,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$TENCENT(00700)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929003511","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":67,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9920660742,"gmtCreate":1670479412886,"gmtModify":1676538377384,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>longBullishlong term","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>longBullishlong term","text":"$Alibaba(09988)$ longBullishlong term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9920660742","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965649962,"gmtCreate":1669948868357,"gmtModify":1676538276309,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope their Trucks are more reliable than cars","listText":"Hope their Trucks are more reliable than cars","text":"Hope their Trucks are more reliable than cars","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965649962","repostId":"2288588938","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2288588938","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1669947571,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2288588938?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-02 10:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Musk Unveils Tesla Semi Trucks at Nevada Factory","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2288588938","media":"Reuters","summary":"Dec 1 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk unveiled the company's first heavy-duty Semi t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Dec 1 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk unveiled the company&#39;s first heavy-duty Semi truck on Thursday at an event in the electric automaker&#39;s Nevada plant, making its first foray into the trucking industry.</p><p>Musk said at the event that the company successfully completed a 500 mile test of the Semi&#39;s driving range on Nov. 15 between Fremont and San Diego.</p><p>The truck is a Class 8 vehicle, meaning it has a weight limit allowing it to transport more than 33,001 pounds of cargo. It was initially meant to go into production in 2019 after being unveiled in 2017, but plans were delayed due to battery constraints.</p><p>Tesla said its other vehicles would used the powertrain in the Semi, and that the company will use the truck in its own supply chain to ship auto components.</p><p>Musk said that the Semi has three times the power of any diesel-powered truck, and is the first Tesla vehicle and it is aimed at reduced the outsized emissions of the trucking sector relative to size of the fleet.</p><p>Tesla also said that the Semi would use its regenerative braking to recapture kinetic energy to improve efficiency.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Musk Unveils Tesla Semi Trucks at Nevada Factory</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMusk Unveils Tesla Semi Trucks at Nevada Factory\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-02 10:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Dec 1 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk unveiled the company&#39;s first heavy-duty Semi truck on Thursday at an event in the electric automaker&#39;s Nevada plant, making its first foray into the trucking industry.</p><p>Musk said at the event that the company successfully completed a 500 mile test of the Semi&#39;s driving range on Nov. 15 between Fremont and San Diego.</p><p>The truck is a Class 8 vehicle, meaning it has a weight limit allowing it to transport more than 33,001 pounds of cargo. It was initially meant to go into production in 2019 after being unveiled in 2017, but plans were delayed due to battery constraints.</p><p>Tesla said its other vehicles would used the powertrain in the Semi, and that the company will use the truck in its own supply chain to ship auto components.</p><p>Musk said that the Semi has three times the power of any diesel-powered truck, and is the first Tesla vehicle and it is aimed at reduced the outsized emissions of the trucking sector relative to size of the fleet.</p><p>Tesla also said that the Semi would use its regenerative braking to recapture kinetic energy to improve efficiency.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2288588938","content_text":"Dec 1 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc Chief Executive Elon Musk unveiled the company's first heavy-duty Semi truck on Thursday at an event in the electric automaker's Nevada plant, making its first foray into the trucking industry.Musk said at the event that the company successfully completed a 500 mile test of the Semi's driving range on Nov. 15 between Fremont and San Diego.The truck is a Class 8 vehicle, meaning it has a weight limit allowing it to transport more than 33,001 pounds of cargo. It was initially meant to go into production in 2019 after being unveiled in 2017, but plans were delayed due to battery constraints.Tesla said its other vehicles would used the powertrain in the Semi, and that the company will use the truck in its own supply chain to ship auto components.Musk said that the Semi has three times the power of any diesel-powered truck, and is the first Tesla vehicle and it is aimed at reduced the outsized emissions of the trucking sector relative to size of the fleet.Tesla also said that the Semi would use its regenerative braking to recapture kinetic energy to improve efficiency.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968711175,"gmtCreate":1669331505298,"gmtModify":1676538182832,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"10,000 eth worth 1.2m sell me some at double your cost please","listText":"10,000 eth worth 1.2m sell me some at double your cost please","text":"10,000 eth worth 1.2m sell me some at double your cost please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968711175","repostId":"1191855687","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961339723,"gmtCreate":1668831624263,"gmtModify":1676538119812,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good thing they have money to burn","listText":"Good thing they have money to burn","text":"Good thing they have money to burn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961339723","repostId":"1143890380","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143890380","pubTimestamp":1668822759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143890380?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-19 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143890380","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New ga","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Further uncertainty for Sea Limited&#39;s Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.</li><li>Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the material improvements in unit economics, and they are expected to be profitable by FY23.</li><li>SeaBank&#39;s credit business is growing strongly and its overall credit business is profitable and cash flow positive. Its revenue now makes up 10.4% of its overall revenue.</li><li>Execution has been on point in attaining profitability although that resulted in declining growth in FY22. Management believes growth can reaccelerate once it achieves profitability.</li><li>Sea Limited has sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes.</li></ul><h3>Investment Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Limited</a> has come under much scrutiny in the past 2 years as the shift in focus from growth to profitability and macro headwinds have led to a massive growth decline across itsShopee and Garena units. While this is unfortunate, management has executed brilliantly so far to turn the company into an increasingly self-sufficient business in the near term.</p><p>In this article, I attempt to dive deeper into itsQ3 2022 resultand provide an overall analysis of the earnings. Although I’d like to highlight that the management has explicitly stated that growth can reaccelerate after attaining profitability and that they have a sufficient cash reserve to pay off the convertible notes sitting on the balance sheet.</p><h3>Garena<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab8fe0ed7909a98b7fdf0b930bc362df\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></h3><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8386bb1c95c3d5300e1fe0f371528199\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>Garena’s QAU and QPU continued to decline sequentially, as the management’s anticipation of its user base stabilizing did not materialize. The macro headwinds continue to be a headache, and it seems that there is more uncertainty lying ahead for Garena Free Fire. The key forward is to focus on launching new games, with games such asPrimitive EraandBlack Clover Mobilelaunching recently. While this indicates that management is working hard to reaccelerate Garena’s growth, it is important to recognize that the success of games is not guaranteed, and this is the bigger uncertainty for the business. As a result, this caused its adjusted EBITDA margin to further decline to 32.5% during the quarter.</p><p>Additionally, management states that the expiry of the agreement with Riot Games will have no impact on Garena’s publishing business, and Garena is seeking other top-game developers for their publishing business.</p><p>Shopee<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b7f33be279fa015f52addd35b55d96\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aaff49a0ba8c901eadda2b7cf01a391\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q</p><p>Shopee’s GMV grew 14% Y/Y and the number of orders grew 18% Y/Y, a continuous decline in the past couple of quarters. This is a result of management pulling back on its sales and marketing (“S&amp;M”) expenses, exiting multiple markets, cutting costs aggressively (such as hiring), and lastly, the lower consumer discretionary spending. This is in contrast to Lazada (NYSE: BABA), as the number oforders declined Y/Yand they are also prioritizing profitability through increased monetization.</p><p>While this does show that consumers continue to spend on Shopee in SEA, its GMV and number of orders are partially contributed by Shopee Brazil. In a tough macro environment, Shopee experienced a 36% Y/Y growth in the number of brands on the platform, indicating that Shopee is an increasingly important partner in growing its online revenue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e09e1e030c482f41afaf8695896f9ec\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q</p><p>The more important portion is Shopee’s improvement in profitability. Its overall adjusted EBITDA loss per order continues to improve by 23.5% sequentially, and more specifically, Shopee Brazil’s loss per order improved by 27.5% sequentially during the quarter as compared to 6.6% in the last quarter. Moreover, Shopee is expected to attain profitability by FY23 instead of FY25 as previously guided by the management. This goes to show that the management has made great strides in pursuing profitability, which is impressive in my view. Once it attained self-sufficiency, growth can reaccelerate, although, the management is expecting flat or negative growth in certain metrics in the near term.</p><h3>SeaBank</h3><p><i>Note that I will be using “SeaBank” and “SeaMoney” interchangeably.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0cb77d6ac22f50a1208eaf075db51c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>SeaMoney’s loan receivables grew 46% from 4Q21 and 110% from 3Q21 to $2.2 billion. These are loans provided to customers whereby SeaMoney generates revenue by charging interest rates, and it has been growing quickly. In myprevious article, I showed that in Sep 2022, SeaBank Indonesia grew its loans and customer deposits by 111% Y/Y and 147% Y/Y, respectively, and the launch of ShopeePay in Brazil. During the earnings call, management stated that the credit business is profitable and cash flow positive, and it will be focusing on growing this business in Southeast Asia (“SEA”) and Brazil.</p><p>Additionally, they have also said to diversify their source of funding for the credit business, which I believe is to seek third-party financing partners to reduce the capital required for the business and at the same time, reduce credit risk. Similar to Bank Jago (IDX: ARTO), SeaBank may utilize the data of its partners to help improve the non-performing loans and scale its lending. Readers who are unaware of SeaBank’s business model can head to mydeep diveinto the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de194897c03f180f99a0dd2b75bf2d0\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5932cc09aca0134084217800afb30399\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6205c82c79c753720862ed8385dd0e2a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>As a result of its growing deposits and loan books, its Q3 2022 revenue grew 147% Y/Y, and it has been increasingly making up a bigger portion of its overall revenue at 10.4% this quarter. Management had also been deliberate in cutting down on S&amp;M expenses and combined with its acceleration revenue growth, its adjusted EBITDA margin has improved massively to -20.7% during the quarter. This is compared to -40% in 2Q22 and -120.3% a year ago.</p><h3>Sufficient Cash Reserves To Pay off Convertible Notes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff585449530fce4084e7d1447e077b4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></h3><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>One of the biggest concerns about Sea Limited for investors is the cash burn rate, as they fear that the company does not have enough sufficient cash reserves to pay off convertible notes maturing in 2026. However, not only did the cash outflow slow in Q3 2022, but the management has also hinted that there are sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes:</p><blockquote>“We aim to continue to maintain a net cash position, after budgeting for the full retirement in cash of outstanding convertible bonds and assuming no external funding.”</blockquote><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Overall, this was a pretty decent quarter for Sea Limited, as we could see that they had made huge improvements on the road to profitability, particularly for Shopee. While that comes at a growth trade-off, management has indicated that Shopee can reaccelerate its growth after attaining profitability in FY23, which is pulled forward from FY25 as guided previously.</p><p>Garena&#39;s results continue to be a concern as macro seems to have a longer-than-expected impact on its user base and its profitability as a result has been trending downwards over the past couple of quarters. Management has been working hard on its gaming pipelines, although the uncertainty lies in the successes of these new games and whether they could reaccelerate their growth in the future.</p><p>SeaBank has been growing its top line really quickly and huge improvements were made on the bottom line as well. Furthermore, the overall credit business is profitable and is generating positive cash flow, and has been increasingly making up a larger proportion of its total revenue. I continue to believe that this can be a potential growth driver for Sea Limited.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-19 09:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143890380","content_text":"SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the material improvements in unit economics, and they are expected to be profitable by FY23.SeaBank's credit business is growing strongly and its overall credit business is profitable and cash flow positive. Its revenue now makes up 10.4% of its overall revenue.Execution has been on point in attaining profitability although that resulted in declining growth in FY22. Management believes growth can reaccelerate once it achieves profitability.Sea Limited has sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes.Investment ThesisSea Limited has come under much scrutiny in the past 2 years as the shift in focus from growth to profitability and macro headwinds have led to a massive growth decline across itsShopee and Garena units. While this is unfortunate, management has executed brilliantly so far to turn the company into an increasingly self-sufficient business in the near term.In this article, I attempt to dive deeper into itsQ3 2022 resultand provide an overall analysis of the earnings. Although I’d like to highlight that the management has explicitly stated that growth can reaccelerate after attaining profitability and that they have a sufficient cash reserve to pay off the convertible notes sitting on the balance sheet.GarenaSE 10-QSE 10-QGarena’s QAU and QPU continued to decline sequentially, as the management’s anticipation of its user base stabilizing did not materialize. The macro headwinds continue to be a headache, and it seems that there is more uncertainty lying ahead for Garena Free Fire. The key forward is to focus on launching new games, with games such asPrimitive EraandBlack Clover Mobilelaunching recently. While this indicates that management is working hard to reaccelerate Garena’s growth, it is important to recognize that the success of games is not guaranteed, and this is the bigger uncertainty for the business. As a result, this caused its adjusted EBITDA margin to further decline to 32.5% during the quarter.Additionally, management states that the expiry of the agreement with Riot Games will have no impact on Garena’s publishing business, and Garena is seeking other top-game developers for their publishing business.ShopeeSE 10-QSE 10-QShopee’s GMV grew 14% Y/Y and the number of orders grew 18% Y/Y, a continuous decline in the past couple of quarters. This is a result of management pulling back on its sales and marketing (“S&M”) expenses, exiting multiple markets, cutting costs aggressively (such as hiring), and lastly, the lower consumer discretionary spending. This is in contrast to Lazada (NYSE: BABA), as the number oforders declined Y/Yand they are also prioritizing profitability through increased monetization.While this does show that consumers continue to spend on Shopee in SEA, its GMV and number of orders are partially contributed by Shopee Brazil. In a tough macro environment, Shopee experienced a 36% Y/Y growth in the number of brands on the platform, indicating that Shopee is an increasingly important partner in growing its online revenue.SE 10-QThe more important portion is Shopee’s improvement in profitability. Its overall adjusted EBITDA loss per order continues to improve by 23.5% sequentially, and more specifically, Shopee Brazil’s loss per order improved by 27.5% sequentially during the quarter as compared to 6.6% in the last quarter. Moreover, Shopee is expected to attain profitability by FY23 instead of FY25 as previously guided by the management. This goes to show that the management has made great strides in pursuing profitability, which is impressive in my view. Once it attained self-sufficiency, growth can reaccelerate, although, the management is expecting flat or negative growth in certain metrics in the near term.SeaBankNote that I will be using “SeaBank” and “SeaMoney” interchangeably.SE 10-QSeaMoney’s loan receivables grew 46% from 4Q21 and 110% from 3Q21 to $2.2 billion. These are loans provided to customers whereby SeaMoney generates revenue by charging interest rates, and it has been growing quickly. In myprevious article, I showed that in Sep 2022, SeaBank Indonesia grew its loans and customer deposits by 111% Y/Y and 147% Y/Y, respectively, and the launch of ShopeePay in Brazil. During the earnings call, management stated that the credit business is profitable and cash flow positive, and it will be focusing on growing this business in Southeast Asia (“SEA”) and Brazil.Additionally, they have also said to diversify their source of funding for the credit business, which I believe is to seek third-party financing partners to reduce the capital required for the business and at the same time, reduce credit risk. Similar to Bank Jago (IDX: ARTO), SeaBank may utilize the data of its partners to help improve the non-performing loans and scale its lending. Readers who are unaware of SeaBank’s business model can head to mydeep diveinto the company.SE 10-QSE 10-QSE 10-QAs a result of its growing deposits and loan books, its Q3 2022 revenue grew 147% Y/Y, and it has been increasingly making up a bigger portion of its overall revenue at 10.4% this quarter. Management had also been deliberate in cutting down on S&M expenses and combined with its acceleration revenue growth, its adjusted EBITDA margin has improved massively to -20.7% during the quarter. This is compared to -40% in 2Q22 and -120.3% a year ago.Sufficient Cash Reserves To Pay off Convertible NotesSE 10-QOne of the biggest concerns about Sea Limited for investors is the cash burn rate, as they fear that the company does not have enough sufficient cash reserves to pay off convertible notes maturing in 2026. However, not only did the cash outflow slow in Q3 2022, but the management has also hinted that there are sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes:“We aim to continue to maintain a net cash position, after budgeting for the full retirement in cash of outstanding convertible bonds and assuming no external funding.”ConclusionOverall, this was a pretty decent quarter for Sea Limited, as we could see that they had made huge improvements on the road to profitability, particularly for Shopee. While that comes at a growth trade-off, management has indicated that Shopee can reaccelerate its growth after attaining profitability in FY23, which is pulled forward from FY25 as guided previously.Garena's results continue to be a concern as macro seems to have a longer-than-expected impact on its user base and its profitability as a result has been trending downwards over the past couple of quarters. Management has been working hard on its gaming pipelines, although the uncertainty lies in the successes of these new games and whether they could reaccelerate their growth in the future.SeaBank has been growing its top line really quickly and huge improvements were made on the bottom line as well. Furthermore, the overall credit business is profitable and is generating positive cash flow, and has been increasingly making up a larger proportion of its total revenue. I continue to believe that this can be a potential growth driver for Sea Limited.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9984032094,"gmtCreate":1667486109019,"gmtModify":1676537926046,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9984032094","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986440260,"gmtCreate":1667007572251,"gmtModify":1676537848369,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Who are these analysts to come up with such benchmarks anyway. Still a great results in my opinion.&nbsp;","listText":"Who are these analysts to come up with such benchmarks anyway. Still a great results in my opinion.&nbsp;","text":"Who are these analysts to come up with such benchmarks anyway. Still a great results in my opinion.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986440260","repostId":"1146218395","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146218395","pubTimestamp":1667007399,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146218395?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-29 09:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Market Cap Bloodbath: Value Of Netflix, Paypal Combined Vanishes In A Flash","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146218395","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSFollowing its recent earnings report, Amazon's market cap is still down by around $","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>ZINGER KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>Following its recent earnings report, Amazon&#39;s market cap is still down by around $104 billion.</li><li>To put the significant loss in perspective, here is a comparison of what $104 billion truly looks like.</li></ul><p><b>Amazon.com Inc</b> rebounded Friday, climbing to the $100 level — gaining back about $100 billion in market cap — after basically seeing shares fall off a cliff on the previous day.</p><p>The e-commerce giant reported third-quarter financial results after the market close Thursday, beating on the top but missing on the bottom line.</p><p>After the report, shares fell a staggering 20% in after hours trading, initially dropping its market cap by $233 billion. That&#39;s more than the combined value of <b>Netflix Inc.</b> and <b>PayPal Holdings Inc.</b>, or the value of five <b>Twitter Inc</b>. deals at <b>Elon Musk</b>&#39;s buyout price of $44 billion.</p><p><b>What Happened:</b> Amazon reported third-quarter revenues of $127.1 billion, up 15% from the same period last year. The sum fell short of a Street expectation of $127.84 billion.</p><p>In the third quarter, the <b>Jeff Bezos</b>-founded company posted:</p><ul><li>Earnings per share of 28 cents, exceeding the Street&#39;s prediction of 22 cents.</li><li>North American sector revenue increased by 20% from the previous year to $78.8 billion.</li><li>$27.7 billion, or 5% less than the prior year&#39;s third quarter, was the foreign segment&#39;s revenue.</li><li>If foreign currency rates were not taken into account, the international section would have increased by 12%.</li><li>Revenue for Amazon&#39;s AWS division reached $20.5 billion, up 27% over the previous year.</li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's Market Cap Bloodbath: Value Of Netflix, Paypal Combined Vanishes In A Flash</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's Market Cap Bloodbath: Value Of Netflix, Paypal Combined Vanishes In A Flash\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-29 09:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/10/29462123/amazons-market-cap-bloodbath-value-of-netflix-paypal-combined-vanishes-in-a-flash><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSFollowing its recent earnings report, Amazon's market cap is still down by around $104 billion.To put the significant loss in perspective, here is a comparison of what $104 billion ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/10/29462123/amazons-market-cap-bloodbath-value-of-netflix-paypal-combined-vanishes-in-a-flash\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/22/10/29462123/amazons-market-cap-bloodbath-value-of-netflix-paypal-combined-vanishes-in-a-flash","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146218395","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSFollowing its recent earnings report, Amazon's market cap is still down by around $104 billion.To put the significant loss in perspective, here is a comparison of what $104 billion truly looks like.Amazon.com Inc rebounded Friday, climbing to the $100 level — gaining back about $100 billion in market cap — after basically seeing shares fall off a cliff on the previous day.The e-commerce giant reported third-quarter financial results after the market close Thursday, beating on the top but missing on the bottom line.After the report, shares fell a staggering 20% in after hours trading, initially dropping its market cap by $233 billion. That's more than the combined value of Netflix Inc. and PayPal Holdings Inc., or the value of five Twitter Inc. deals at Elon Musk's buyout price of $44 billion.What Happened: Amazon reported third-quarter revenues of $127.1 billion, up 15% from the same period last year. The sum fell short of a Street expectation of $127.84 billion.In the third quarter, the Jeff Bezos-founded company posted:Earnings per share of 28 cents, exceeding the Street's prediction of 22 cents.North American sector revenue increased by 20% from the previous year to $78.8 billion.$27.7 billion, or 5% less than the prior year's third quarter, was the foreign segment's revenue.If foreign currency rates were not taken into account, the international section would have increased by 12%.Revenue for Amazon's AWS division reached $20.5 billion, up 27% over the previous year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986574350,"gmtCreate":1667000462970,"gmtModify":1676537845971,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why not target&nbsp;","listText":"Why not target&nbsp;","text":"Why not target","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986574350","repostId":"2278010460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278010460","pubTimestamp":1666970718,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2278010460?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-28 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Walmart or Costco?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278010460","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Both sales models align well with the current spending environment.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Recession-proof stocks can be a safe haven for investors during times of economic turmoil. When the economy slows, consumers look to stretch their dollars, often trading down from name brands and even choosing different retailers to buy from instead.</p><p>Budget-friendly retailers <b>Walmart</b> and <b>Costco Wholesale</b> have business models that benefit from these recent shopping trends. Let&#39;s look at which consumer staples stock makes a better buy in today&#39;s market.</p><h2><b>Walmart: For those seeking great value</b></h2><p>Through pandemic lockdowns, recession fears, and persistent inflation, Walmart&#39;s defensive business model has remained stable, although the company faces its fair share of challenges. As the current economy reshapes consumer behavior, Walmart&#39;s discount prices have converted higher-income shoppers. The numbers don&#39;t lie, and these more affluent shoppers boosted second-quarter sales substantially.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dbaf940143a66accb7d59ccd150390f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Walmart.</span></p><p>Seeking food and essentials at lower prices, higher-earning consumers (those with annual household incomes of $100,000 or more) accounted for approximately 75% of Walmart&#39;s second-quarter market share gains. In-store sales saw a 6.5% increase and online sales jumped 12% year over year.</p><p>Despite sales gains in food and essentials, Walmart saw sales of casual clothing, TVs, and other electronics dwindle in the quarter. Now sitting on a surplus of merchandise, the retailer is making efforts to reduce that inventory -- primarily with markdowns -- that have taken a toll on profit margins. Recognizing the shift in consumer spending this summer, it lowered its profit forecast for the full year.</p><p>Undeterred by challenges, management now looks to boost business with its subscription service, Walmart+, which offers such perks as unlimited free delivery from stores as well as fuel discounts. CEO Doug McMillon believes is an integral part of the company&#39;s long-term success.</p><p>Meanwhile, Walmart is making progress on reducing its surplus inventory, and aims to continue snatching market share in the grocery department.</p><h2><b>Costco: Lasting success</b></h2><p>With over 110 million Costco cardholders worldwide, the chain retains some of the most loyal bargain hunters out there. The warehouse retailer earned $4.2 billion in fiscal 2022 from membership fees alone, helping to keep prices down and lure more members. Also worth considering: that $4.2 billion accounted for over 70% of Costco&#39;s annual profits.</p><p>Recently closing out fiscal 2022, Costco continues to perform well in the current market. The wholesaler enjoyed a 16% jump in net sales for the year, totaling more than $222 billion, compared to last year&#39;s $192 billion. And last quarter&#39;s sales increased more than 15% year over year.</p><p>One key advantage Costco holds over Walmart is its low rate of theft. A tight control on shoplifting keeps Costco&#39;s shrinkage to 0.12% of sales. In comparison, Walmart loses an average of $3 billion a year from theft. Other ways Costco passes savings on to customers include strategic vendor agreements and a near-zero advertising budget.</p><p>Considering its stock has more than quintupled over the last decade, Costco has certainly rewarded long-term shareholders. And although investing legend Warren Buffett sold his stake in the company a couple of years ago, billionaire Charlie Munger (Buffett&#39;s right-hand man) still holds his shares -- with no intentions of selling. Time will tell whether Buffett or Munger has the right instincts.</p><h2><b>Which is the better buy?</b></h2><p>To help gauge whether Walmart or Costco is the better buy, let&#39;s look at current market capitalizations, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields.</p><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><th>Metric</th><th>Walmart</th><th>Costco</th></tr><tr><td>Market capitalization</td><td>$378 billion</td><td>$220 billion</td></tr><tr><td>Price-to-earnings ratio</td><td>27.8</td><td>37.8</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend yield</td><td>1.61%</td><td>0.72%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: E*Trade.</p><p>A lower price-to-earnings ratio and a higher dividend yield make Walmart today&#39;s winner. But for a long-term investment, you really can&#39;t go wrong with either of these retail titans, which are both well-positioned for today&#39;s consumers.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Walmart or Costco?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Walmart or Costco?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-28 23:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/better-buy-walmart-or-costco/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Recession-proof stocks can be a safe haven for investors during times of economic turmoil. When the economy slows, consumers look to stretch their dollars, often trading down from name brands and even...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/better-buy-walmart-or-costco/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/better-buy-walmart-or-costco/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278010460","content_text":"Recession-proof stocks can be a safe haven for investors during times of economic turmoil. When the economy slows, consumers look to stretch their dollars, often trading down from name brands and even choosing different retailers to buy from instead.Budget-friendly retailers Walmart and Costco Wholesale have business models that benefit from these recent shopping trends. Let's look at which consumer staples stock makes a better buy in today's market.Walmart: For those seeking great valueThrough pandemic lockdowns, recession fears, and persistent inflation, Walmart's defensive business model has remained stable, although the company faces its fair share of challenges. As the current economy reshapes consumer behavior, Walmart's discount prices have converted higher-income shoppers. The numbers don't lie, and these more affluent shoppers boosted second-quarter sales substantially.Image source: Walmart.Seeking food and essentials at lower prices, higher-earning consumers (those with annual household incomes of $100,000 or more) accounted for approximately 75% of Walmart's second-quarter market share gains. In-store sales saw a 6.5% increase and online sales jumped 12% year over year.Despite sales gains in food and essentials, Walmart saw sales of casual clothing, TVs, and other electronics dwindle in the quarter. Now sitting on a surplus of merchandise, the retailer is making efforts to reduce that inventory -- primarily with markdowns -- that have taken a toll on profit margins. Recognizing the shift in consumer spending this summer, it lowered its profit forecast for the full year.Undeterred by challenges, management now looks to boost business with its subscription service, Walmart+, which offers such perks as unlimited free delivery from stores as well as fuel discounts. CEO Doug McMillon believes is an integral part of the company's long-term success.Meanwhile, Walmart is making progress on reducing its surplus inventory, and aims to continue snatching market share in the grocery department.Costco: Lasting successWith over 110 million Costco cardholders worldwide, the chain retains some of the most loyal bargain hunters out there. The warehouse retailer earned $4.2 billion in fiscal 2022 from membership fees alone, helping to keep prices down and lure more members. Also worth considering: that $4.2 billion accounted for over 70% of Costco's annual profits.Recently closing out fiscal 2022, Costco continues to perform well in the current market. The wholesaler enjoyed a 16% jump in net sales for the year, totaling more than $222 billion, compared to last year's $192 billion. And last quarter's sales increased more than 15% year over year.One key advantage Costco holds over Walmart is its low rate of theft. A tight control on shoplifting keeps Costco's shrinkage to 0.12% of sales. In comparison, Walmart loses an average of $3 billion a year from theft. Other ways Costco passes savings on to customers include strategic vendor agreements and a near-zero advertising budget.Considering its stock has more than quintupled over the last decade, Costco has certainly rewarded long-term shareholders. And although investing legend Warren Buffett sold his stake in the company a couple of years ago, billionaire Charlie Munger (Buffett's right-hand man) still holds his shares -- with no intentions of selling. Time will tell whether Buffett or Munger has the right instincts.Which is the better buy?To help gauge whether Walmart or Costco is the better buy, let's look at current market capitalizations, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields.MetricWalmartCostcoMarket capitalization$378 billion$220 billionPrice-to-earnings ratio27.837.8Dividend yield1.61%0.72%Data source: E*Trade.A lower price-to-earnings ratio and a higher dividend yield make Walmart today's winner. But for a long-term investment, you really can't go wrong with either of these retail titans, which are both well-positioned for today's consumers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9989877156,"gmtCreate":1665976923875,"gmtModify":1676537686604,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What recession China Gdp expected to grow 4.4% in 2023... Chill","listText":"What recession China Gdp expected to grow 4.4% in 2023... Chill","text":"What recession China Gdp expected to grow 4.4% in 2023... Chill","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9989877156","repostId":"1110365668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110365668","pubTimestamp":1665974372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110365668?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-17 10:39","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba, Nio Shares Fall: Recession Worries, Volatile Wall Street Keep Hong Kong Stocks In Red","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110365668","media":"Benzinga","summary":"ZINGER KEY POINTSThe benchmark Hang Seng opened 0.53% lower.Shares of Xpeng, Nio and Baidu lost over","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>ZINGER KEY POINTS</b></p><ul><li>The benchmark Hang Seng opened 0.53% lower.</li><li>Shares of Xpeng, Nio and Baidu lost over 5% in morning trade, Alibaba shares fell over 1%.</li></ul><p>Hong Kong shares opened in the red on Monday as recession worries continued to plague stock markets across the world with major indices in the U.S.falling over 1% on Friday.</p><p>The benchmark Hang Seng opened 0.53% lower with shares of Xpeng, Nio and Baidu losing over 5% in morning trade. Alibaba shares lost over 1%.</p><p>“Risk was firmly off in US markets as earnings results rolled in and the University of Michigan survey showed consumer inflation expectations rising for the first time in seven months,” ANZ Research said in a note.</p><p><b>Company News</b>: Alibaba is readying significant discounts and extra help for merchants in the run-up to this year’s <b>Singles’ Day</b> shopping extravaganza,reported the South China Morning Post.</p><p>China’s biggest offshore oil and gas driller <b>Cnooc Ltd.</b> stated net profit probably more than doubled in the first nine months of the year, reported Bloomberg.</p><p><b>Top Gainers and Losers: Li Ning Company Limited</b> and <b>JD.com</b> were the top losers among Hang Seng constituents, having shed over 4% and 3%, respectively. <b>China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited</b> and <b>Lenovo Group Limited</b> were the top gainers, rising over 3% and 1.5%, respectively.</p><p><b>Global News</b>: U.S. futures traded in the green on Monday morning Asia session. The Dow Jones futures were up 0.42% while the Nasdaq futures gained 0.47%. The S&amp;P 500 futures were up 0.46%.</p><p>Elsewhere in Asia, Australia’s ASX 200 was down 1.44%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.26% while China’s Shanghai Composite index was down 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.16%.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba, Nio Shares Fall: Recession Worries, Volatile Wall Street Keep Hong Kong Stocks In Red</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba, Nio Shares Fall: Recession Worries, Volatile Wall Street Keep Hong Kong Stocks In Red\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-17 10:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/10/29281144/alibaba-nio-shares-fall-recession-worries-volatile-wall-street-keep-hong-kong-stocks-in-red><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ZINGER KEY POINTSThe benchmark Hang Seng opened 0.53% lower.Shares of Xpeng, Nio and Baidu lost over 5% in morning trade, Alibaba shares fell over 1%.Hong Kong shares opened in the red on Monday as ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/10/29281144/alibaba-nio-shares-fall-recession-worries-volatile-wall-street-keep-hong-kong-stocks-in-red\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","09888":"百度集团-SW","09868":"小鹏汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/10/29281144/alibaba-nio-shares-fall-recession-worries-volatile-wall-street-keep-hong-kong-stocks-in-red","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110365668","content_text":"ZINGER KEY POINTSThe benchmark Hang Seng opened 0.53% lower.Shares of Xpeng, Nio and Baidu lost over 5% in morning trade, Alibaba shares fell over 1%.Hong Kong shares opened in the red on Monday as recession worries continued to plague stock markets across the world with major indices in the U.S.falling over 1% on Friday.The benchmark Hang Seng opened 0.53% lower with shares of Xpeng, Nio and Baidu losing over 5% in morning trade. Alibaba shares lost over 1%.“Risk was firmly off in US markets as earnings results rolled in and the University of Michigan survey showed consumer inflation expectations rising for the first time in seven months,” ANZ Research said in a note.Company News: Alibaba is readying significant discounts and extra help for merchants in the run-up to this year’s Singles’ Day shopping extravaganza,reported the South China Morning Post.China’s biggest offshore oil and gas driller Cnooc Ltd. stated net profit probably more than doubled in the first nine months of the year, reported Bloomberg.Top Gainers and Losers: Li Ning Company Limited and JD.com were the top losers among Hang Seng constituents, having shed over 4% and 3%, respectively. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited and Lenovo Group Limited were the top gainers, rising over 3% and 1.5%, respectively.Global News: U.S. futures traded in the green on Monday morning Asia session. The Dow Jones futures were up 0.42% while the Nasdaq futures gained 0.47%. The S&P 500 futures were up 0.46%.Elsewhere in Asia, Australia’s ASX 200 was down 1.44%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 1.26% while China’s Shanghai Composite index was down 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.16%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9925335842,"gmtCreate":1671929866787,"gmtModify":1676538611575,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Merry Christmas everyone","listText":"Merry Christmas everyone","text":"Merry Christmas everyone","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9925335842","repostId":"1192326933","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192326933","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1672011741,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192326933?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-26 07:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192326933","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. ChristmasDay hasarrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c0d643f9647f8bf16257138dcbed8a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p>The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.</p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.</p><p>The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p><p>The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: U.S. Market Will be Closed for Christmas Day on Monday, 26 December 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-12-26 07:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9c0d643f9647f8bf16257138dcbed8a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.</p><p>The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.</p><p>The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.</p><p>The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p><p>The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192326933","content_text":"U.S. Christmas Day has arrived. The U.S. market will be closed on Monday, 26 December 2022. Please take note of the trading arrangements during the holiday period and make the necessary preparations in advance.The Singapore market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022.The Hong Kong market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022.The Australian market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.The New Zealand market will be closed at local time on Monday, 26 December 2022 and Tuesday, 27 December 2022 in addition to the Boxing Day.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9947373277,"gmtCreate":1682610157500,"gmtModify":1682610161613,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Just install waymo on a tesla. You get a real self driving car immediately","listText":"Just install waymo on a tesla. You get a real self driving car immediately","text":"Just install waymo on a tesla. You get a real self driving car immediately","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9947373277","repostId":"1102618472","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102618472","pubTimestamp":1682607274,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1102618472?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-27 22:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":" Tesla: Q1 Margin Squeeze, But Self-Driving Adds Huge Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102618472","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryTesla has resurrected its \"low margin\", \"affordable\" EV strategy which I believe should help ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">Summary</h2><ul><li><p>Tesla has resurrected its &#34;low margin&#34;, &#34;affordable&#34; EV strategy which I believe should help to boost market share, as well as undercut the competition thanks to its economies of scale.</p></li><li><p>The company missed both its revenue and earnings forecast, despite reporting record deliveries and production numbers.</p></li><li><p>My intrinsic valuation model and forecasts indicate Tesla is undervalued in a base case scenario and even more undervalued in a &#34;best case&#34;, full autonomy, Robots (Optimus) etc.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e94c2a45c7301b8ea00c807d826e5dd\" alt=\"Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory\" title=\"Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"563\"/><span>Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory</span></p><p>Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has recently announced intriguing results for the first quarter of 2023. The company reported &#34;record&#34; production and delivery numbers, but still missed analyst forecasts for earnings and revenue, so what happened? Elon Musk announced plans to continue to reduce prices, in an effort to focus on a lower-margin mass-market product. This wasn&#39;t taken well by Wall Street with firms such as Truist Securities, downgrading Tesla from a &#34;Buy&#34; to a &#34;Hold&#34; due to this concern. However, I believe this isn&#39;t a new strategy for Tesla (and I will show examples later in this post). In addition, Tesla has racked up more autonomous driving miles than any other automaker (according to my estimates) and thus has a competitive advantage in this regard. In this post, I&#39;m going to discuss why Tesla&#39;s lower margin strategy could prove to be very lucrative long term thanks to its autonomous driving technology, before revealing my valuation model and forecasts for the stock, let&#39;s dive in.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500e1d52cdbf0b1e3a37d1bcbed4d3f3\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>The &#34;New Strategy&#34; is Not New</h2><p>The first part of my thesis makes the case that Tesla&#39;s &#34;new strategy&#34; of focusing on &#34;higher volumes and a large fleet&#34;, as opposed to &#34;lower volume and higher margin&#34;, is not entirely new. Avid Tesla followers may recall that Elon Musk&#39;s long-term vision has always been to create an affordable mass-market EV. In fact, I have discovered at least four quotes from Musk in the past where he stated just that;</p><ol><li><p>&#34;I think the most important thing is to make cars that people can <strong>afford</strong>&#34; - <em>Elon Musk (May 2013, Bloomberg).</em></p></li><li><p>&#34;We must at least aspire to produce cars that are more <strong>affordable</strong> than the Model 3 in order to achieve our mission.&#34; - <em>Elon Musk (Tesla&#39;s Q1 2017 earnings call).</em></p></li><li><p>&#34;Our long-term goal is to be able to create a <strong>$25,000 </strong>electric vehicle that is also fully autonomous.&#34; - <em>Elon Musk (Tesla Battery Day event, 2020).</em></p></li><li><p>Our aspiration is still to try to make the cars as affordable as possible, and to ultimately make<strong> Tesla as affordable as possible</strong>.&#34; - <em>Elon Musk (Tesla Q3 2020 earnings call).</em></p></li></ol><p>Therefore in 2023, when Elon Musk renewed his focus on cost-effective or &#34;affordable&#34; Tesla&#39;s it wasn&#39;t a surprise to me. In fact, this could also be perfect timing, as many analysts have forecast a &#34;recession&#34; and thus it would make sense to offer consumers the greatest value possible. In addition, as Tesla looks to have the largest manufacturing footprint of any pure EV maker (5 Gigafactories globally), then it could be assumed that Tesla could in fact offer a cheaper alternative, than its competitors due to economies of scale.</p><p>This strategy is also aligned with the key success strategy which helped Amazon dominate the e-commerce world. This was dubbed as &#34;Scale economics shared&#34;, in that it &#34;gives back&#34; savings made to its consumers by continually lowering prices. Of course, Tesla hasn&#39;t completely given up on profits (that would be crazy). The company aims to &#34;harvest significant profits&#34; in the future through the sales of its fully autonomous self-driving software.</p><h2>How far is Tesla from full self-driving?</h2><p>Critics will say Elon Musk has been promising full self-driving for many years, and I can&#39;t argue with that point. Back in 2015, Elon Musk promised full autonomy &#34;within two years&#34;, at an MIT Symposium. Then in 2019 at an Autonomy Day Event, Musk promised &#34;full autonomy with regulatory approval in 2020&#34;. However, I personally believe we are now very close. Over &#34;150 million miles&#34; have been driven in Full Self Driving beta mode and that number is &#34;growing exponentially&#34;, according to Musk in the Q1, 2023 earnings call. This number of miles is key, as anyone who understands AI models will tell you, the more training data, the greater accuracy can be achieved. If we compare this figure to the &#34;just&#34; 1 million self-driving miles reported by Google&#39;s Waymo and Cruise, as of early 2023, Tesla looks to be very far ahead. Even if we compare this to &#34;safety driver&#34; miles, reports indicate Waymo racked up &#34;just&#34; 20 million miles in total, in 2020, which means Tesla likely has 7.5 times the number of miles. This also isn&#39;t taking into account the 150 million miles Tesla has reported is just for its latest &#34;beta&#34; software, I believe.</p><p>Elon Musk also recently stated that to his &#34;best knowledge&#34; the &#34;current hardware&#34; can achieve full autonomy. Therefore, in theory, Tesla could do an over-the-air software update and turn almost every Tesla on the road (over 1 million vehicles) into a full self-driving vehicle. Of course, this would be done for a fee charged to those who choose to pay and this is where Tesla aims to capture back its margins.</p><p>The value of an autonomous vehicle should also be not understated, this isn&#39;t just about being able to take long road trips without the achy arms, the potential is huge. For example, a fully self-driving vehicle could effectively replace the passenger railroad industry (a $250 billion market globally) by offering more personal point-to-point service. In addition, a new &#34;third space&#34; will likely be created in which one could use a Tesla as a home office, entertainment center, etc.</p><p>A fully autonomous vehicle can also be used to generate funds, for the individual when they are not using it. For example, you could be in the office and your Tesla could be doing ride-hailing around a city or doing food deliveries. Therefore the platform could disrupt Uber (UBER) which is valued at $62 billion, at the time of writing.</p><p>At Tesla&#39;s AI day in 2020, the company revealed details of Dojo which it claimed to be the &#34;fastest&#34; AI training supercomputer in the world, which was so powerful it actually tripped the power grid in Palo Alto, California.</p><p>The Dojo platform has huge potential and could be utilized as a high-margin &#34;sellable service&#34; similar to AWS cloud. AWS is the profit engine of Amazon (AMZN), driving 188% of its operating income, despite generating just ~14.35% of its total revenue, as of Q4,22. I discussed details of this in my previous post where I made the case that Amazon should spin off AWS, its most lucrative business segment (in my opinion).</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4301aed406832dfd03a7349ad24a77a\" alt=\"Tesla ExaPOD Dojo Supercomputer (Tesla AI Day 2022)\" title=\"Tesla ExaPOD Dojo Supercomputer (Tesla AI Day 2022)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"572\"/><span>Tesla ExaPOD Dojo Supercomputer (Tesla AI Day 2022)</span></p><p>This Dojo platform and Tesla&#39;s developed custom chips (such as the D1) are also expected to be key components for &#34;Optimus&#34; Tesla&#39;s autonomous robot. An &#34;affordable&#34; robot in every home could become a reality and would be aligned extremely well with Tesla&#39;s current business model, technology, and strategy. The robotics industry is forecast to grow at a 14.3% compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] and reach a value of $30.8 billion by 2027 thus the potential is huge for Tesla.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16b2513d46f366821137cb9c9636647a\" alt=\"Tesla Robot Optimus (AI Day 22)\" title=\"Tesla Robot Optimus (AI Day 22)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"/><span>Tesla Robot Optimus (AI Day 22)</span></p><h2>Financials and Valuation</h2><p>Tesla reported $23.33 billion in revenue which missed analyst forecasts by $26 million, despite increasing by a solid 24% year over year. This growth rate has slowed down substantially from the 34% reported in Q4,22 and the 55.95% in Q3,22, which looks to have been driven by both the &#34;recessionary&#34; environment as well as increasing competition. The good news is a &#34;price cut&#34; by Tesla should help to solve both issues. It should also be noted that Tesla reported &#34;record&#34; production and delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2023. The company generated 422,875 deliveries, which was up from the 405,278 reported in Q4,22. However, its sequential delivery growth rate has declined substantially from 17.87% in Q4,22 to just 4.34% by Q1,23, due to the aforementioned reasons. A positive is Tesla&#39;s production numbers have recovered with a record 440,808 reported for the first quarter of 2023, as the company resolved the issues at its Shanghai Gigafactory.</p><p>In terms of the valuation for Tesla, I have updated my model since my last post with the latest financials for Q1,23. In addition, I have adjusted my revenue growth rate from 26% to 27% for &#34;next year&#34; on the back of the planned decrease in prices which I believe should help to spur demand. I have also increased my forecasted revenue growth rate from 31% to 32% in years 2 to 5, due to my expected rebound in the economy and consumer demand (post-2023), plus the price reductions. Keep in mind, this isn&#39;t taking into account the potential of Dojo and thus that would really add bonus optionality into the stock.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24a6867fdea67873b01c770d7d395a41\" alt=\"Tesla stock valuation 1 (Created by author Deep Tech Insights)\" title=\"Tesla stock valuation 1 (Created by author Deep Tech Insights)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\"/><span>Tesla stock valuation 1 (Created by author Deep Tech Insights)</span></p><p>I previously forecast a 20% operating margin over the next 10 years, which I believe is still easily achievable. However, to be conservative and with Musk&#39;s renewed focus on lower margins I have stretched this out to be achievable over 12 years. This is still fairly conservative and only represents a 4% increase from the 16% margin achieved in Q4,22 or a 2% increase from the 18% margin achieved with R&amp;D expenses capitalized (as I have done in my model). Investors should be aware, that margins are likely to continue to dip as prices are slashed before we will see a reversion.</p><p>Tesla reported just a 12% operating margin in 2021 and 16.81% in 2022 and thus even with price cuts its margins are still solid at 11.42% reported for Q1,23, thanks to economies of scale. I believe we could see a further drop to around 8% or 10% (with R&amp;D capitalized) to be extreme, so I have estimated that for &#34;next year&#34; in my model. Given these estimates, by year four I expect a 14.69% operating margin before expansion.</p><p>I believe Tesla will unlikely decide to go back into &#34;unprofitable&#34; territory again, due to investor sentiment and S&amp;P 500 inclusion requirements.</p><p>It should also be noted that some of the price reduction is already baked in, as back in October 2022, Tesla announced its original price cuts by ~9% in China for the Model 3 and Model Y. Investors initially assumed this was just a response to competition (and it was to a certain extent). However, given the clarity of the long-term strategy, it&#39;s not a crazy amount. Also, price cuts in the U.S. by around $5,000 for each model may help to boost eligibility for the IRS tax credit of $7,500 which could help to boost demand. According to Tesla&#39;s website its Model S, 3, X, and Y qualify for this incentive (assuming other criteria are met).</p><p>In a best-case scenario, I believe Tesla&#39;s operating margin could surpass 24% (with full self-driving and AI as a service) which is slightly higher than the 23% average for a software company.</p><p>Tesla also has a strong balance sheet with $22.185 billion in cash and short-term investment, in addition, to $5.748 billion in long-term debt.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eb72ddef832d4117abbaaa4f7ec1686\" alt=\"Tesla stock valuation 2 (Created by author Ben at Deep Tech Insights)\" title=\"Tesla stock valuation 2 (Created by author Ben at Deep Tech Insights)\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"656\"/><span>Tesla stock valuation 2 (Created by author Ben at Deep Tech Insights)</span></p><p>Given these factors, I get a fair value of ~$247.36 per share, and thus the stock is ~37.74% undervalued at the time of writing.</p><p>For the &#34;best case&#34; scenario, which includes the 24% operating margin for (full self-driving, AI as a service, and Optimus robots) I get a fair value of over $292.72 per share, which offers an even greater (47%) upside.</p><p>Tesla trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio = 5.2, which is ~36% cheaper than its 5-year average.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f022cf343666a222a0b16c0643b7bf5d\" alt=\"Data by YCharts\" title=\"Data by YCharts\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Risks</h2><h3>Going Cheap could damage the brand</h3><p>The first Tesla vehicles such as the Roadster were widely adopted by celebrities such as Leonardo Dicaprio, as a &#34;do good&#34; and &#34;status&#34; statement. I personally believe Tesla vehicles are still seen as aspirational with some &#34;prestige&#34;. Therefore if Tesla drops its prices too much it could devalue the brand and its pricing power long term. For example, the luxury automaker Ferrari broke its sales record again in 2022 and saw its calls sell out, despite its Portofino M being priced at $250,000 and its Purosangue SUV costing nearly $400,000 each. Now of course, I don&#39;t put Tesla in the same category as a Ferrari but I consider them to be more closely aligned with Mercedes or Audi. Thus its brand positioning is just something for Tesla to be aware of as it continues to drop prices. There is also the &#34;risk&#34; of a race to the bottom in the EV industry. In fact, if history is to go by back in 1913, Henry Ford introduced the assembly line which the time to build and price of its Model T by 50-70% which resulted in hundreds of competitor car companies going bust and industry consolidation. This may seem bad at first glance but given Tesla and rival BYD&#39;s immense scale, I believe these two will be left standing as the dust settles.</p><h2>Final Thoughts</h2><p>Tesla renewed focus on lower-margin, mass-market vehicles is a strategy that will likely result in short-term pain, but long-term gain. I believe this strategy is actually optimal given the forecasted recession, tepid consumer demand, and increasing competition. In addition, Tesla can continue to &#34;future sell&#34; the value of its full self-driving software and pending vehicles such as the Tesla Cybertruck (over 1.5 million pre-orders as of November 2022). If/when Tesla achieves full self-driving, this could offer huge optionality for the stock and actually change the world as we know it. But the good news is even from an investment standpoint, a base case scenario still indicates Tesla is undervalued intrinsically. Therefore I will deem the stock to be a &#34;buy&#34; for the long term.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Tesla: Q1 Margin Squeeze, But Self-Driving Adds Huge Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n Tesla: Q1 Margin Squeeze, But Self-Driving Adds Huge Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-27 22:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4597206-tesla-q1-margin-squeeze-self-driving-upside-potential><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla has resurrected its \"low margin\", \"affordable\" EV strategy which I believe should help to boost market share, as well as undercut the competition thanks to its economies of scale.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4597206-tesla-q1-margin-squeeze-self-driving-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4597206-tesla-q1-margin-squeeze-self-driving-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1102618472","content_text":"SummaryTesla has resurrected its \"low margin\", \"affordable\" EV strategy which I believe should help to boost market share, as well as undercut the competition thanks to its economies of scale.The company missed both its revenue and earnings forecast, despite reporting record deliveries and production numbers.My intrinsic valuation model and forecasts indicate Tesla is undervalued in a base case scenario and even more undervalued in a \"best case\", full autonomy, Robots (Optimus) etc.Tesla Shanghai GigafactoryTesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has recently announced intriguing results for the first quarter of 2023. The company reported \"record\" production and delivery numbers, but still missed analyst forecasts for earnings and revenue, so what happened? Elon Musk announced plans to continue to reduce prices, in an effort to focus on a lower-margin mass-market product. This wasn't taken well by Wall Street with firms such as Truist Securities, downgrading Tesla from a \"Buy\" to a \"Hold\" due to this concern. However, I believe this isn't a new strategy for Tesla (and I will show examples later in this post). In addition, Tesla has racked up more autonomous driving miles than any other automaker (according to my estimates) and thus has a competitive advantage in this regard. In this post, I'm going to discuss why Tesla's lower margin strategy could prove to be very lucrative long term thanks to its autonomous driving technology, before revealing my valuation model and forecasts for the stock, let's dive in.Data by YChartsThe \"New Strategy\" is Not NewThe first part of my thesis makes the case that Tesla's \"new strategy\" of focusing on \"higher volumes and a large fleet\", as opposed to \"lower volume and higher margin\", is not entirely new. Avid Tesla followers may recall that Elon Musk's long-term vision has always been to create an affordable mass-market EV. In fact, I have discovered at least four quotes from Musk in the past where he stated just that;\"I think the most important thing is to make cars that people can afford\" - Elon Musk (May 2013, Bloomberg).\"We must at least aspire to produce cars that are more affordable than the Model 3 in order to achieve our mission.\" - Elon Musk (Tesla's Q1 2017 earnings call).\"Our long-term goal is to be able to create a $25,000 electric vehicle that is also fully autonomous.\" - Elon Musk (Tesla Battery Day event, 2020).Our aspiration is still to try to make the cars as affordable as possible, and to ultimately make Tesla as affordable as possible.\" - Elon Musk (Tesla Q3 2020 earnings call).Therefore in 2023, when Elon Musk renewed his focus on cost-effective or \"affordable\" Tesla's it wasn't a surprise to me. In fact, this could also be perfect timing, as many analysts have forecast a \"recession\" and thus it would make sense to offer consumers the greatest value possible. In addition, as Tesla looks to have the largest manufacturing footprint of any pure EV maker (5 Gigafactories globally), then it could be assumed that Tesla could in fact offer a cheaper alternative, than its competitors due to economies of scale.This strategy is also aligned with the key success strategy which helped Amazon dominate the e-commerce world. This was dubbed as \"Scale economics shared\", in that it \"gives back\" savings made to its consumers by continually lowering prices. Of course, Tesla hasn't completely given up on profits (that would be crazy). The company aims to \"harvest significant profits\" in the future through the sales of its fully autonomous self-driving software.How far is Tesla from full self-driving?Critics will say Elon Musk has been promising full self-driving for many years, and I can't argue with that point. Back in 2015, Elon Musk promised full autonomy \"within two years\", at an MIT Symposium. Then in 2019 at an Autonomy Day Event, Musk promised \"full autonomy with regulatory approval in 2020\". However, I personally believe we are now very close. Over \"150 million miles\" have been driven in Full Self Driving beta mode and that number is \"growing exponentially\", according to Musk in the Q1, 2023 earnings call. This number of miles is key, as anyone who understands AI models will tell you, the more training data, the greater accuracy can be achieved. If we compare this figure to the \"just\" 1 million self-driving miles reported by Google's Waymo and Cruise, as of early 2023, Tesla looks to be very far ahead. Even if we compare this to \"safety driver\" miles, reports indicate Waymo racked up \"just\" 20 million miles in total, in 2020, which means Tesla likely has 7.5 times the number of miles. This also isn't taking into account the 150 million miles Tesla has reported is just for its latest \"beta\" software, I believe.Elon Musk also recently stated that to his \"best knowledge\" the \"current hardware\" can achieve full autonomy. Therefore, in theory, Tesla could do an over-the-air software update and turn almost every Tesla on the road (over 1 million vehicles) into a full self-driving vehicle. Of course, this would be done for a fee charged to those who choose to pay and this is where Tesla aims to capture back its margins.The value of an autonomous vehicle should also be not understated, this isn't just about being able to take long road trips without the achy arms, the potential is huge. For example, a fully self-driving vehicle could effectively replace the passenger railroad industry (a $250 billion market globally) by offering more personal point-to-point service. In addition, a new \"third space\" will likely be created in which one could use a Tesla as a home office, entertainment center, etc.A fully autonomous vehicle can also be used to generate funds, for the individual when they are not using it. For example, you could be in the office and your Tesla could be doing ride-hailing around a city or doing food deliveries. Therefore the platform could disrupt Uber (UBER) which is valued at $62 billion, at the time of writing.At Tesla's AI day in 2020, the company revealed details of Dojo which it claimed to be the \"fastest\" AI training supercomputer in the world, which was so powerful it actually tripped the power grid in Palo Alto, California.The Dojo platform has huge potential and could be utilized as a high-margin \"sellable service\" similar to AWS cloud. AWS is the profit engine of Amazon (AMZN), driving 188% of its operating income, despite generating just ~14.35% of its total revenue, as of Q4,22. I discussed details of this in my previous post where I made the case that Amazon should spin off AWS, its most lucrative business segment (in my opinion).Tesla ExaPOD Dojo Supercomputer (Tesla AI Day 2022)This Dojo platform and Tesla's developed custom chips (such as the D1) are also expected to be key components for \"Optimus\" Tesla's autonomous robot. An \"affordable\" robot in every home could become a reality and would be aligned extremely well with Tesla's current business model, technology, and strategy. The robotics industry is forecast to grow at a 14.3% compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] and reach a value of $30.8 billion by 2027 thus the potential is huge for Tesla.Tesla Robot Optimus (AI Day 22)Financials and ValuationTesla reported $23.33 billion in revenue which missed analyst forecasts by $26 million, despite increasing by a solid 24% year over year. This growth rate has slowed down substantially from the 34% reported in Q4,22 and the 55.95% in Q3,22, which looks to have been driven by both the \"recessionary\" environment as well as increasing competition. The good news is a \"price cut\" by Tesla should help to solve both issues. It should also be noted that Tesla reported \"record\" production and delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2023. The company generated 422,875 deliveries, which was up from the 405,278 reported in Q4,22. However, its sequential delivery growth rate has declined substantially from 17.87% in Q4,22 to just 4.34% by Q1,23, due to the aforementioned reasons. A positive is Tesla's production numbers have recovered with a record 440,808 reported for the first quarter of 2023, as the company resolved the issues at its Shanghai Gigafactory.In terms of the valuation for Tesla, I have updated my model since my last post with the latest financials for Q1,23. In addition, I have adjusted my revenue growth rate from 26% to 27% for \"next year\" on the back of the planned decrease in prices which I believe should help to spur demand. I have also increased my forecasted revenue growth rate from 31% to 32% in years 2 to 5, due to my expected rebound in the economy and consumer demand (post-2023), plus the price reductions. Keep in mind, this isn't taking into account the potential of Dojo and thus that would really add bonus optionality into the stock.Tesla stock valuation 1 (Created by author Deep Tech Insights)I previously forecast a 20% operating margin over the next 10 years, which I believe is still easily achievable. However, to be conservative and with Musk's renewed focus on lower margins I have stretched this out to be achievable over 12 years. This is still fairly conservative and only represents a 4% increase from the 16% margin achieved in Q4,22 or a 2% increase from the 18% margin achieved with R&D expenses capitalized (as I have done in my model). Investors should be aware, that margins are likely to continue to dip as prices are slashed before we will see a reversion.Tesla reported just a 12% operating margin in 2021 and 16.81% in 2022 and thus even with price cuts its margins are still solid at 11.42% reported for Q1,23, thanks to economies of scale. I believe we could see a further drop to around 8% or 10% (with R&D capitalized) to be extreme, so I have estimated that for \"next year\" in my model. Given these estimates, by year four I expect a 14.69% operating margin before expansion.I believe Tesla will unlikely decide to go back into \"unprofitable\" territory again, due to investor sentiment and S&P 500 inclusion requirements.It should also be noted that some of the price reduction is already baked in, as back in October 2022, Tesla announced its original price cuts by ~9% in China for the Model 3 and Model Y. Investors initially assumed this was just a response to competition (and it was to a certain extent). However, given the clarity of the long-term strategy, it's not a crazy amount. Also, price cuts in the U.S. by around $5,000 for each model may help to boost eligibility for the IRS tax credit of $7,500 which could help to boost demand. According to Tesla's website its Model S, 3, X, and Y qualify for this incentive (assuming other criteria are met).In a best-case scenario, I believe Tesla's operating margin could surpass 24% (with full self-driving and AI as a service) which is slightly higher than the 23% average for a software company.Tesla also has a strong balance sheet with $22.185 billion in cash and short-term investment, in addition, to $5.748 billion in long-term debt.Tesla stock valuation 2 (Created by author Ben at Deep Tech Insights)Given these factors, I get a fair value of ~$247.36 per share, and thus the stock is ~37.74% undervalued at the time of writing.For the \"best case\" scenario, which includes the 24% operating margin for (full self-driving, AI as a service, and Optimus robots) I get a fair value of over $292.72 per share, which offers an even greater (47%) upside.Tesla trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio = 5.2, which is ~36% cheaper than its 5-year average.Data by YChartsRisksGoing Cheap could damage the brandThe first Tesla vehicles such as the Roadster were widely adopted by celebrities such as Leonardo Dicaprio, as a \"do good\" and \"status\" statement. I personally believe Tesla vehicles are still seen as aspirational with some \"prestige\". Therefore if Tesla drops its prices too much it could devalue the brand and its pricing power long term. For example, the luxury automaker Ferrari broke its sales record again in 2022 and saw its calls sell out, despite its Portofino M being priced at $250,000 and its Purosangue SUV costing nearly $400,000 each. Now of course, I don't put Tesla in the same category as a Ferrari but I consider them to be more closely aligned with Mercedes or Audi. Thus its brand positioning is just something for Tesla to be aware of as it continues to drop prices. There is also the \"risk\" of a race to the bottom in the EV industry. In fact, if history is to go by back in 1913, Henry Ford introduced the assembly line which the time to build and price of its Model T by 50-70% which resulted in hundreds of competitor car companies going bust and industry consolidation. This may seem bad at first glance but given Tesla and rival BYD's immense scale, I believe these two will be left standing as the dust settles.Final ThoughtsTesla renewed focus on lower-margin, mass-market vehicles is a strategy that will likely result in short-term pain, but long-term gain. I believe this strategy is actually optimal given the forecasted recession, tepid consumer demand, and increasing competition. In addition, Tesla can continue to \"future sell\" the value of its full self-driving software and pending vehicles such as the Tesla Cybertruck (over 1.5 million pre-orders as of November 2022). If/when Tesla achieves full self-driving, this could offer huge optionality for the stock and actually change the world as we know it. But the good news is even from an investment standpoint, a base case scenario still indicates Tesla is undervalued intrinsically. Therefore I will deem the stock to be a \"buy\" for the long term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9924411656,"gmtCreate":1672306187675,"gmtModify":1676538669389,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good luck","listText":"Good luck","text":"Good luck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9924411656","repostId":"1137209740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137209740","pubTimestamp":1672328467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137209740?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-29 23:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137209740","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Tesla is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.</li><li>The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.</li><li>A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.</li><li>Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.</li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a> is one of the world&#39;s largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&amp;P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla&#39;s stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors &#34;Teslanaires&#34;. However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla&#39;s Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn&#39;t confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company&#39;s leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the &#34;anti-inflation act&#34; and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I&#39;m going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let&#39;s dive in.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a79a1ea5bc04bd0f7d6b837085e569e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data byYCharts</p><h3>Strong Financials</h3><p>Tesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b64a3820209ed9456f87830d2189af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>Theaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla&#39;s best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57567a6966f9a88dec06edea0df2921f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)</p><p>As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said &#34;competition is coming&#34; for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f129b31bd55450cd9d2b4db301535\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla market share (Electrek)</p><p>Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b8dd476696262c736d8202f0eb711b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)</p><p>A positive for Tesla is it doesn&#39;t have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world&#39;s largest &#34;gigapress&#34;. Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is &#34;pretty easy&#34;, but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as &#34;easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required&#34; according to Musk.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0285620745fdf8528607519819ead673\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla Semi(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new &#34;Megachargers&#34; announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the &#34;Megachargers&#34;.</p><p>Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to &#34;outstrip supply&#34;.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e9768e93dfbc30a6ed7f6a616288ecd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Energy storage (Q3,22 report)</p><p>Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a &#34;superintelligence&#34; quite easily given the component pieces are all available.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7fe2dfb674cd77a5935cb3ad7b34ca8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)</p><p>Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.</p><h3>Advanced Valuation</h3><p>I have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500a6571bf014bc4f705876a2b54d81f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&amp;D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3b77d54dee36748f8aba2dbb017bd53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)</p><p>Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.</p><p>As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2a4393b0790f345f095c860ebcc51f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><h3>Risks-Elon Musk Selling/Twitter</h3><p>A key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla&#39;s factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ab90b0248581ffdd6e1053e959dabb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)</p><p>Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter&#39;s debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk&#39;s mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/642e9c75c64b767a55648c6514f3739a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)</p><p>Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.</p><h3>Final Thoughts</h3><p>Tesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously &#34;high&#34; valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla&#39;s technology advantages should keep them ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: A Generational Buying Opportunity\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-29 23:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566840-tesla-stock-generational-buying-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1137209740","content_text":"SummaryTesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and an innovative powerhouse in areas from solar to self-driving.The company has continued to produce strong financial results, beating both top and bottom line estimates in Q3,22.A Twitter poll requested Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Twitter, which I suspect will benefit Tesla shareholders if he follows through.Its stock is undervalued intrinsically and relative to historic multiples.Tesla is one of the world's largest EV makers and one of the most popular stocks in the world. The company was catapulted into stardom during the stimulus-fueled bull market of 2020, which sent the company fromnear bankruptcy to an S&P 500, trillion-dollar titan. This tremendous bull run meant Tesla's stock price increased by over 1,300% and made many investors \"Teslanaires\". However, since the macroeconomic environment changed in November 2021, as thehighinflation numbers were released, Tesla has become a rollercoaster for investors. The stock price has now been butchered by 73% from its all-time highs, with a 44% decline in December alone. This looks to have been driven by a series of macroeconomic factors. In addition, to a serious amount of stock selling by founder Elon Musk (which I will discuss more on in the Risks) section. There have also been somereportsof a production cut in January 2023, expected at Tesla's Shanghai factory. Although the company hasn't confirmed this yet. With all this bad news you may wonder why I am bullish on the stock? There are a few reasons for this, of course, we know about the company's leadership position and technology innovation. In addition, Tesla customers are nowpoisedto benefit from a $7,500 EV tax incentive which was offered thanks to the \"anti-inflation act\" and should boost EV demand. Its stock is also deeply undervalued intrinsically. In this post, I'm going to review its financials, outline production updates, and revisit its valuation. Let's dive in.Data byYChartsStrong FinancialsTesla generated strong financialresultsfor the third quarter of 2022. Revenue increased by a rapid 56% year over year to a record $21.45 billion, which was a strong positive. However, it did miss analyst estimates by $428.34 million. This was mainly driven by unfavorable foreign exchange headwinds, as a rising dollar impacted international revenue. Overall vehicle deliveries increased by 42% year over year to 343,830 units. The Model Y drove the majority of sales, followed by the Model S.Data by YChartsTheaf orementioned tax credit is for EV vehicles that sell for below $55,000 and thus this includes Tesla's best-selling models 3 and Y. However, with options attached to the models, this will likely go over the tax rate availability. I did notice Tesla has relatively few low-cost (below $50,000 models) available on its website, within 200 miles of Rodeo Drive LA. I suspect the tax credit has helped to boost sales of low-value models already, which is a positive. I did notice Tesla is offering 10,000 miles of free supercharging which looks to be an incentive to boost demand further.Tesla vehicle stock (Tesla website, author search)As of the third quarter of 2022, Tesla ramped up its production by 54% YoY to 365,923 vehicles. The latestdata(November 2022) shows Tesla still dominates the electric vehicle market in the U.S.A, with 65% market share. However, it should be noted that its market share has declined from the 79% in 2020. For many years, bearish analysts have said \"competition is coming\" for Tesla, but now it looks as though they are finally starting to eat market share.Tesla market share (Electrek)Ford is the second largest EV maker in the U.S. but still trails Tesla massively with just 7% market share. The company produces the F-150 which is the most popular vehicle sold in the U.S. Its new EV version of the F-150 isforecastto be released in 2023 and thus I believe this will be a major driver of sales. A positive for Tesla is the entire EV market is growing and thus the pie is getting bigger for all manufacturers. According to one study, the EV industry is forecast to grow at a 23.1% CAGR and be worth over $1.1 trillion by 2030.Ford 150 Electric (Ford Website, author screenshot)A positive for Tesla is it doesn't have to convert traditional internal combustion engine facilities into EV manufacturing plants, like many traditional automakers. Tesla is vertically integrated from the ground up and has even developed unique pieces of equipment to manufacture its cars, such as the world's largest \"gigapress\". Elon Musk has often stated in the past that producing a prototype or a low volume of vehicles is \"pretty easy\", but manufacturing at scale is the challenging part. Tesla ramped up its Shanghai factory production in the third quarter and its Berlin factory also produced 2,000 model Y vehicles, although still in the early stages of a full ramp.Tesla's rate of innovation is so great that when traditional auto manufacturers are thinking about breakfast, Tesla is already eating their lunch. For example, I recentlywatchedthe Tesla Semipresentationby Elon Musk, which is currently in production. The company has reinvented trucking with a smooth design which was tested in a state-of-the-art wind chamber, to maximize its range of 500 miles which was astonishing. The truck is also reportedly as \"easy to drive as a Model 3, with basically no training required\" according to Musk.Tesla Semi(Tesla)Tesla has also innovated on the charging front with new \"Megachargers\" announced, that enable charging at a staggering 1 megawatt. This basically means truck batteries can be charged up to 70% in 30 minutes, which is the average amount of time a truck driver will take on a refresh break. The uniquely designed Cybertruck is alsoreportedto start production in 2023 and will benefit from the \"Megachargers\".Tesla increased its energy storage deployed to 2,100 MWh, which increased by a substantial 62% year over year. The company did experience some supply chain constraints as demand continued to \"outstrip supply\".Energy storage (Q3,22 report)Tesla is also innovating on the artificial intelligence front as the company announced its beta Full self-driving and even humanoid robot concept called Optimus, which I have covered in greater detail in past posts. AI has recently seen a huge surge in popularity. The Open AI institute which was originally backed by Elon Musk released the popular ChatGPT, which some analysts believe could rival Google. I could envision a ChatGPT-like AI model embedded into the software of Optimus, which would make it a font of information while also assisting with tasks based upon prompts. This would truly create a \"superintelligence\" quite easily given the component pieces are all available.Tesla AI Day 2022(Tesla)Tesla reported earnings per share of $0.95, which increased by a staggering 93.57% year over year and beat analyst estimates by $0.06. The company also has a strong balance sheet with $21,107 billion in cash and short-term investments. The company does have fairly high debt of $5.87 billion, but just $979 million of this is short term debt, due within the next 2 years.Advanced ValuationI have plugged the latest financials of Tesla into my discounted cash flow valuation model. I have forecasted 30% revenue growth for next year which is fairly conservative given past growth rates of above 50%. I have given a lower estimate due to the tepid macroeconomic environment forecasted. However, in years 2 to 5, I have forecasted a recovery with a 35% revenue growth rate per year.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)To increase the accuracy of the valuation, I have capitalized R&D expenses which has lifted net income. In addition, I have forecasted a pre-tax operating margin of 20% over the next 10 years, as the company scales and benefits from an increasing amount of cross-selling between its products.Tesla stock valuation (created by author Ben at Motivation 2 Invest)Given these factors I get a fair value of $216 per share, the stock is trading at ~$109 per share at the time of writing and thus is ~50% undervalued.As an extra data point, Tesla trades at a Price to Sales ratio = 4.52, which is 52% cheaper than its 5-year average.Data by YChartsRisks-Elon Musk Selling/TwitterA key red flag is the continued sale of Tesla stock by Elon Musk. A mid-December SECfilingreports Elon Musk sold 22 million shares of Tesla stock, with a staggering value of $3.6 billion. Musk is known to have slept in Tesla's factory and is very committed to the company, but when he repeatedly sells stock, it does contradict this narrative.SEC filing(SEC/author annotation)Musk may be selling shares to help pay down some of Twitter's debt, which he has previously made comments about. Many investors (including myself) believe Twitter is a major distraction to Elon Musk's mission at Tesla. In a recentvoteon Twitter, 57% of people asked Elon to step down as the CEO of Twitter, which he said he will abide by when he gets a replacement.CEO vote(Elon Musk Twitter)Other risks include the forecasted recession and competition which I have previously discussed.Final ThoughtsTesla is a tremendous technology company with many competitive advantages from its manufacturing to technology and even its strong brand/community. Tesla has grown into its previously \"high\" valuation by continuing to generate strong financial results. Its stock is now deeply undervalued and thus this could be a great long-term investment. I do predict some short-term volatility over the next 12 months due to the recessionary environment, but Tesla's technology advantages should keep them ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9951255209,"gmtCreate":1673499045702,"gmtModify":1676538846747,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Drop","listText":"Drop","text":"Drop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9951255209","repostId":"2302029346","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2302029346","pubTimestamp":1673495525,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2302029346?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-12 11:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Prioritizing Volume Over Margins","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2302029346","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryCompany cuts prices in an effort to drive unit volume growth.Gross margins likely to come dow","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Company cuts prices in an effort to drive unit volume growth.</li><li>Gross margins likely to come down, but profits can still rise.</li><li>Shares remain at the low end of yearly trading range.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c563d1112f151135a2eb99d5300d4bf3\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Sjo</span></p><p>Over the past couple of years, one of the areas that has seen the most inflation has been vehicle pricing. Electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) had certainly raised prices around the globe on multiple models thanks tostrong demand as well as inflationary pressures leading to higher costs. Late last year however, the company started to reduce pricing in China and offer incentives in other countries to help with sales, but these efforts weren&#39;t enough to meet Q4 delivery expectations. This year will be a very different one for the automaker, however, as more price cuts will likely be needed to drive delivery volume growth in a meaningful way. Today, I&#39;d like to examine how this could impact overall results.</p><p>To think about where things are going, we first have to look at where they have been. In the chart below, I&#39;ve shown what Tesla&#39;s automotive revenues per unit has been since the start of 2019, which is when the Model 3 ramp really went into full blast. This number is simply total automotive revenue, including leasing revenue and credit sales revenues, divided by the number of vehicles delivered in the quarter. Other people may calculate average selling prices differently, but this is how I want to show things for simplicity.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16835a805988e2a320c6d129be17e614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"399\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Automotive Revenue Per Delivered Vehicle (Company Filings)</span></p><p>In Q3 2022, Tesla reported $54,364 in automotive revenues per vehicle delivered. That number is expected to come down a couple of percent in Q4 due to three reasons. First, there were price cuts in China during the quarter, along with numerous end of quarter incentives around the globe to help with sales. Second, the mix of Model 3 and Y vehicles delivered was higher, which lowers the average per vehicle. Finally, the leasing percentage ticked up a little, also hurting the average. On the flip side, Tesla could recognize a bit of previously deferred full self-driving revenues, perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars, but that would create an apples to oranges comparison here.</p><p>For 2023, my current estimate is that Tesla will deliver about 1.94 million vehicles, which is just a little under its long term growth target of 50% growth per year. For this argument, let&#39;s assume that the average revenue per delivery comes down to $48,000, which reflects the latest price cuts in China as well as more potential price cuts to drive demand in other countries. This results in a little more than $23 billion in automotive revenue per quarter, and for this exercise, I&#39;m just assuming each quarter has the same amount of deliveries. As we&#39;ve seen in the past, the ending numbers will likely be lower in the first quarter and then ramp throughout the year.</p><p>With Tesla increasing volumes by about 50% this year, one would likely expect that it can reduce its costs per unit as well. Some key materials, especially on the battery side, have shown some deflation recently, which should help the company&#39;s cost structure. For this argument, let&#39;s assume Tesla reduces its cost per delivered vehicle by $2,000 over Q3 2022 levels, where GAAP automotive gross margins came in at 27.88%. The chart below shows how overall GAAP automotive gross margins have fared over the same timeline used above. These margins include credit sales, because that&#39;s what appears on the income statement, but many analysts and investors also focus on non-GAAP margins too that exclude credits.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b27315de6bb9822a78c330cedda1775\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"383\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Tesla GAAP Automotive Gross Margin (Company Filings)</span></p><p>In the projection I detailed above, Tesla&#39;s gross margin drops to 22.49% for this year, a nearly 540 basis point drop over Q3 2022 levels. Some might consider this to be a disaster for the company. Well, it turns out that in this example, Tesla&#39;s gross margin dollar figure actually increases by $24 million to $5.236 billion. That&#39;s the power of the extra volume here. Should revenues per unit come in higher or the cost per unit come in lower, there would obviously be even more upside for gross margin dollars. For now, I&#39;m not assuming that Cybertruck launch costs will be too material to the overall year&#39;s results, but that&#39;s an item that we can examine further as the year progresses.</p><p>Of course, the automotive gross margin picture is just one part of Tesla. In Q3 2022, for example, the energy and services segment also combined for $170 million in gross profits. A number of Tesla bulls are expecting storage sales to surge this year, which could deliver a lot more gross profit here. Over the course of the full year, that could mean at least a billion dollars. Thus, it will just be a matter of how total operating expenses fare, if they rise a bit along with the surge in total revenue. Tesla is also expected to generate more interest income and have less interest expense this year. Thus, the Street currently expects more than 25% growth in non-GAAP earnings per share this year to $5.11, although that number was approaching $6 about three months ago before price cuts began and economic worries started to really increase.</p><p>So what&#39;s the key here? Well, that gross margin figure will be very closely watched. If I reduce the hit this year to just 4 percentage points instead of the 5.4 shown above, gross margin dollars increase by $325 million per quarter. Holding all else equal, and assuming a 15% tax rate along with another small increase in the share count, you get 30 cents of earnings per share upside. If you want to see automotive gross margin dollars hold at their Q3 2022 level, watch the $48,000 per vehicle delivered price average, along with roughly 22.5% in GAAP automotive gross margins. If Tesla has to cut prices further or margins trend closer to 20%, then you are likely to see earnings per share come in below $5 this year, which will disappoint many of the bulls.</p><p>As for Tesla shares, they remain stuck towards the lower end of their yearly range, trading below $120 on Tuesday. Elon Musk&#39;s purchase of Twitter and the resulting share sales and drama there has hurt Tesla sentiment. Investors have also worried about how price cuts could impact revenues and margins in this very competitive space, as that could mean less than expected earnings per share growth. The Street remains very positive on the stock, with the average price target of nearly $217 reflecting tremendous upside, but that key valuation figure was at $305 just three months ago. I expect that we&#39;ll see a lot of price target changes coming after the Q4 earnings report in two weeks as analysts get a lot more color on how 2023 could look.</p><p>In the end, 2023 will look a lot different for Tesla than the last couple of years. Instead of rising prices and generally higher gross margins, the company is now reducing prices in many areas to drive volume growth towards its longer term targets. That could result in a meaningfully lower GAAP gross margin percentage for Tesla if it cannot drive costs lower enough, but that doesn&#39;t necessarily mean gross margin dollars will also fall. As long as the margin percentage doesn&#39;t crash, Tesla has a chance to grow its margin dollars and thus earnings per share this year, although analysts have reduced their expectations a bit in recent months. That earnings per share growth will likely be needed to get shares back above the $200 level that analysts see the stock worth.</p><p><i>This article is written by Bill Maurer for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Prioritizing Volume Over Margins</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Prioritizing Volume Over Margins\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-12 11:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569153-tesla-prioritizing-volume-over-margins><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryCompany cuts prices in an effort to drive unit volume growth.Gross margins likely to come down, but profits can still rise.Shares remain at the low end of yearly trading range.SjoOver the past ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569153-tesla-prioritizing-volume-over-margins\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569153-tesla-prioritizing-volume-over-margins","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2302029346","content_text":"SummaryCompany cuts prices in an effort to drive unit volume growth.Gross margins likely to come down, but profits can still rise.Shares remain at the low end of yearly trading range.SjoOver the past couple of years, one of the areas that has seen the most inflation has been vehicle pricing. Electric vehicle maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) had certainly raised prices around the globe on multiple models thanks tostrong demand as well as inflationary pressures leading to higher costs. Late last year however, the company started to reduce pricing in China and offer incentives in other countries to help with sales, but these efforts weren't enough to meet Q4 delivery expectations. This year will be a very different one for the automaker, however, as more price cuts will likely be needed to drive delivery volume growth in a meaningful way. Today, I'd like to examine how this could impact overall results.To think about where things are going, we first have to look at where they have been. In the chart below, I've shown what Tesla's automotive revenues per unit has been since the start of 2019, which is when the Model 3 ramp really went into full blast. This number is simply total automotive revenue, including leasing revenue and credit sales revenues, divided by the number of vehicles delivered in the quarter. Other people may calculate average selling prices differently, but this is how I want to show things for simplicity.Automotive Revenue Per Delivered Vehicle (Company Filings)In Q3 2022, Tesla reported $54,364 in automotive revenues per vehicle delivered. That number is expected to come down a couple of percent in Q4 due to three reasons. First, there were price cuts in China during the quarter, along with numerous end of quarter incentives around the globe to help with sales. Second, the mix of Model 3 and Y vehicles delivered was higher, which lowers the average per vehicle. Finally, the leasing percentage ticked up a little, also hurting the average. On the flip side, Tesla could recognize a bit of previously deferred full self-driving revenues, perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars, but that would create an apples to oranges comparison here.For 2023, my current estimate is that Tesla will deliver about 1.94 million vehicles, which is just a little under its long term growth target of 50% growth per year. For this argument, let's assume that the average revenue per delivery comes down to $48,000, which reflects the latest price cuts in China as well as more potential price cuts to drive demand in other countries. This results in a little more than $23 billion in automotive revenue per quarter, and for this exercise, I'm just assuming each quarter has the same amount of deliveries. As we've seen in the past, the ending numbers will likely be lower in the first quarter and then ramp throughout the year.With Tesla increasing volumes by about 50% this year, one would likely expect that it can reduce its costs per unit as well. Some key materials, especially on the battery side, have shown some deflation recently, which should help the company's cost structure. For this argument, let's assume Tesla reduces its cost per delivered vehicle by $2,000 over Q3 2022 levels, where GAAP automotive gross margins came in at 27.88%. The chart below shows how overall GAAP automotive gross margins have fared over the same timeline used above. These margins include credit sales, because that's what appears on the income statement, but many analysts and investors also focus on non-GAAP margins too that exclude credits.Tesla GAAP Automotive Gross Margin (Company Filings)In the projection I detailed above, Tesla's gross margin drops to 22.49% for this year, a nearly 540 basis point drop over Q3 2022 levels. Some might consider this to be a disaster for the company. Well, it turns out that in this example, Tesla's gross margin dollar figure actually increases by $24 million to $5.236 billion. That's the power of the extra volume here. Should revenues per unit come in higher or the cost per unit come in lower, there would obviously be even more upside for gross margin dollars. For now, I'm not assuming that Cybertruck launch costs will be too material to the overall year's results, but that's an item that we can examine further as the year progresses.Of course, the automotive gross margin picture is just one part of Tesla. In Q3 2022, for example, the energy and services segment also combined for $170 million in gross profits. A number of Tesla bulls are expecting storage sales to surge this year, which could deliver a lot more gross profit here. Over the course of the full year, that could mean at least a billion dollars. Thus, it will just be a matter of how total operating expenses fare, if they rise a bit along with the surge in total revenue. Tesla is also expected to generate more interest income and have less interest expense this year. Thus, the Street currently expects more than 25% growth in non-GAAP earnings per share this year to $5.11, although that number was approaching $6 about three months ago before price cuts began and economic worries started to really increase.So what's the key here? Well, that gross margin figure will be very closely watched. If I reduce the hit this year to just 4 percentage points instead of the 5.4 shown above, gross margin dollars increase by $325 million per quarter. Holding all else equal, and assuming a 15% tax rate along with another small increase in the share count, you get 30 cents of earnings per share upside. If you want to see automotive gross margin dollars hold at their Q3 2022 level, watch the $48,000 per vehicle delivered price average, along with roughly 22.5% in GAAP automotive gross margins. If Tesla has to cut prices further or margins trend closer to 20%, then you are likely to see earnings per share come in below $5 this year, which will disappoint many of the bulls.As for Tesla shares, they remain stuck towards the lower end of their yearly range, trading below $120 on Tuesday. Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter and the resulting share sales and drama there has hurt Tesla sentiment. Investors have also worried about how price cuts could impact revenues and margins in this very competitive space, as that could mean less than expected earnings per share growth. The Street remains very positive on the stock, with the average price target of nearly $217 reflecting tremendous upside, but that key valuation figure was at $305 just three months ago. I expect that we'll see a lot of price target changes coming after the Q4 earnings report in two weeks as analysts get a lot more color on how 2023 could look.In the end, 2023 will look a lot different for Tesla than the last couple of years. Instead of rising prices and generally higher gross margins, the company is now reducing prices in many areas to drive volume growth towards its longer term targets. That could result in a meaningfully lower GAAP gross margin percentage for Tesla if it cannot drive costs lower enough, but that doesn't necessarily mean gross margin dollars will also fall. As long as the margin percentage doesn't crash, Tesla has a chance to grow its margin dollars and thus earnings per share this year, although analysts have reduced their expectations a bit in recent months. That earnings per share growth will likely be needed to get shares back above the $200 level that analysts see the stock worth.This article is written by Bill Maurer for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961339723,"gmtCreate":1668831624263,"gmtModify":1676538119812,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good thing they have money to burn","listText":"Good thing they have money to burn","text":"Good thing they have money to burn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961339723","repostId":"1143890380","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143890380","pubTimestamp":1668822759,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143890380?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-19 09:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143890380","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New ga","content":"<html><head></head><body><h3>Summary</h3><ul><li>Further uncertainty for Sea Limited&#39;s Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.</li><li>Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the material improvements in unit economics, and they are expected to be profitable by FY23.</li><li>SeaBank&#39;s credit business is growing strongly and its overall credit business is profitable and cash flow positive. Its revenue now makes up 10.4% of its overall revenue.</li><li>Execution has been on point in attaining profitability although that resulted in declining growth in FY22. Management believes growth can reaccelerate once it achieves profitability.</li><li>Sea Limited has sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes.</li></ul><h3>Investment Thesis</h3><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea Limited</a> has come under much scrutiny in the past 2 years as the shift in focus from growth to profitability and macro headwinds have led to a massive growth decline across itsShopee and Garena units. While this is unfortunate, management has executed brilliantly so far to turn the company into an increasingly self-sufficient business in the near term.</p><p>In this article, I attempt to dive deeper into itsQ3 2022 resultand provide an overall analysis of the earnings. Although I’d like to highlight that the management has explicitly stated that growth can reaccelerate after attaining profitability and that they have a sufficient cash reserve to pay off the convertible notes sitting on the balance sheet.</p><h3>Garena<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab8fe0ed7909a98b7fdf0b930bc362df\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></h3><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8386bb1c95c3d5300e1fe0f371528199\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>Garena’s QAU and QPU continued to decline sequentially, as the management’s anticipation of its user base stabilizing did not materialize. The macro headwinds continue to be a headache, and it seems that there is more uncertainty lying ahead for Garena Free Fire. The key forward is to focus on launching new games, with games such asPrimitive EraandBlack Clover Mobilelaunching recently. While this indicates that management is working hard to reaccelerate Garena’s growth, it is important to recognize that the success of games is not guaranteed, and this is the bigger uncertainty for the business. As a result, this caused its adjusted EBITDA margin to further decline to 32.5% during the quarter.</p><p>Additionally, management states that the expiry of the agreement with Riot Games will have no impact on Garena’s publishing business, and Garena is seeking other top-game developers for their publishing business.</p><p>Shopee<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79b7f33be279fa015f52addd35b55d96\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aaff49a0ba8c901eadda2b7cf01a391\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q</p><p>Shopee’s GMV grew 14% Y/Y and the number of orders grew 18% Y/Y, a continuous decline in the past couple of quarters. This is a result of management pulling back on its sales and marketing (“S&amp;M”) expenses, exiting multiple markets, cutting costs aggressively (such as hiring), and lastly, the lower consumer discretionary spending. This is in contrast to Lazada (NYSE: BABA), as the number oforders declined Y/Yand they are also prioritizing profitability through increased monetization.</p><p>While this does show that consumers continue to spend on Shopee in SEA, its GMV and number of orders are partially contributed by Shopee Brazil. In a tough macro environment, Shopee experienced a 36% Y/Y growth in the number of brands on the platform, indicating that Shopee is an increasingly important partner in growing its online revenue.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e09e1e030c482f41afaf8695896f9ec\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>SE 10-Q</p><p>The more important portion is Shopee’s improvement in profitability. Its overall adjusted EBITDA loss per order continues to improve by 23.5% sequentially, and more specifically, Shopee Brazil’s loss per order improved by 27.5% sequentially during the quarter as compared to 6.6% in the last quarter. Moreover, Shopee is expected to attain profitability by FY23 instead of FY25 as previously guided by the management. This goes to show that the management has made great strides in pursuing profitability, which is impressive in my view. Once it attained self-sufficiency, growth can reaccelerate, although, the management is expecting flat or negative growth in certain metrics in the near term.</p><h3>SeaBank</h3><p><i>Note that I will be using “SeaBank” and “SeaMoney” interchangeably.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f0cb77d6ac22f50a1208eaf075db51c\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>SeaMoney’s loan receivables grew 46% from 4Q21 and 110% from 3Q21 to $2.2 billion. These are loans provided to customers whereby SeaMoney generates revenue by charging interest rates, and it has been growing quickly. In myprevious article, I showed that in Sep 2022, SeaBank Indonesia grew its loans and customer deposits by 111% Y/Y and 147% Y/Y, respectively, and the launch of ShopeePay in Brazil. During the earnings call, management stated that the credit business is profitable and cash flow positive, and it will be focusing on growing this business in Southeast Asia (“SEA”) and Brazil.</p><p>Additionally, they have also said to diversify their source of funding for the credit business, which I believe is to seek third-party financing partners to reduce the capital required for the business and at the same time, reduce credit risk. Similar to Bank Jago (IDX: ARTO), SeaBank may utilize the data of its partners to help improve the non-performing loans and scale its lending. Readers who are unaware of SeaBank’s business model can head to mydeep diveinto the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2de194897c03f180f99a0dd2b75bf2d0\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5932cc09aca0134084217800afb30399\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6205c82c79c753720862ed8385dd0e2a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"742\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>As a result of its growing deposits and loan books, its Q3 2022 revenue grew 147% Y/Y, and it has been increasingly making up a bigger portion of its overall revenue at 10.4% this quarter. Management had also been deliberate in cutting down on S&amp;M expenses and combined with its acceleration revenue growth, its adjusted EBITDA margin has improved massively to -20.7% during the quarter. This is compared to -40% in 2Q22 and -120.3% a year ago.</p><h3>Sufficient Cash Reserves To Pay off Convertible Notes<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff585449530fce4084e7d1447e077b4\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></h3><p>SE 10-Q</p><p>One of the biggest concerns about Sea Limited for investors is the cash burn rate, as they fear that the company does not have enough sufficient cash reserves to pay off convertible notes maturing in 2026. However, not only did the cash outflow slow in Q3 2022, but the management has also hinted that there are sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes:</p><blockquote>“We aim to continue to maintain a net cash position, after budgeting for the full retirement in cash of outstanding convertible bonds and assuming no external funding.”</blockquote><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Overall, this was a pretty decent quarter for Sea Limited, as we could see that they had made huge improvements on the road to profitability, particularly for Shopee. While that comes at a growth trade-off, management has indicated that Shopee can reaccelerate its growth after attaining profitability in FY23, which is pulled forward from FY25 as guided previously.</p><p>Garena&#39;s results continue to be a concern as macro seems to have a longer-than-expected impact on its user base and its profitability as a result has been trending downwards over the past couple of quarters. Management has been working hard on its gaming pipelines, although the uncertainty lies in the successes of these new games and whether they could reaccelerate their growth in the future.</p><p>SeaBank has been growing its top line really quickly and huge improvements were made on the bottom line as well. Furthermore, the overall credit business is profitable and is generating positive cash flow, and has been increasingly making up a larger proportion of its total revenue. I continue to believe that this can be a potential growth driver for Sea Limited.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Profitability May Be Around The Corner\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-19 09:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4559176-sea-limited-profitability-may-be-around-the-corner","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143890380","content_text":"SummaryFurther uncertainty for Sea Limited's Garena as its QAU did not stabilize as expected. New games were launched in recent months.Shopee’s race to profitability has accelerated as shown in the material improvements in unit economics, and they are expected to be profitable by FY23.SeaBank's credit business is growing strongly and its overall credit business is profitable and cash flow positive. Its revenue now makes up 10.4% of its overall revenue.Execution has been on point in attaining profitability although that resulted in declining growth in FY22. Management believes growth can reaccelerate once it achieves profitability.Sea Limited has sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes.Investment ThesisSea Limited has come under much scrutiny in the past 2 years as the shift in focus from growth to profitability and macro headwinds have led to a massive growth decline across itsShopee and Garena units. While this is unfortunate, management has executed brilliantly so far to turn the company into an increasingly self-sufficient business in the near term.In this article, I attempt to dive deeper into itsQ3 2022 resultand provide an overall analysis of the earnings. Although I’d like to highlight that the management has explicitly stated that growth can reaccelerate after attaining profitability and that they have a sufficient cash reserve to pay off the convertible notes sitting on the balance sheet.GarenaSE 10-QSE 10-QGarena’s QAU and QPU continued to decline sequentially, as the management’s anticipation of its user base stabilizing did not materialize. The macro headwinds continue to be a headache, and it seems that there is more uncertainty lying ahead for Garena Free Fire. The key forward is to focus on launching new games, with games such asPrimitive EraandBlack Clover Mobilelaunching recently. While this indicates that management is working hard to reaccelerate Garena’s growth, it is important to recognize that the success of games is not guaranteed, and this is the bigger uncertainty for the business. As a result, this caused its adjusted EBITDA margin to further decline to 32.5% during the quarter.Additionally, management states that the expiry of the agreement with Riot Games will have no impact on Garena’s publishing business, and Garena is seeking other top-game developers for their publishing business.ShopeeSE 10-QSE 10-QShopee’s GMV grew 14% Y/Y and the number of orders grew 18% Y/Y, a continuous decline in the past couple of quarters. This is a result of management pulling back on its sales and marketing (“S&M”) expenses, exiting multiple markets, cutting costs aggressively (such as hiring), and lastly, the lower consumer discretionary spending. This is in contrast to Lazada (NYSE: BABA), as the number oforders declined Y/Yand they are also prioritizing profitability through increased monetization.While this does show that consumers continue to spend on Shopee in SEA, its GMV and number of orders are partially contributed by Shopee Brazil. In a tough macro environment, Shopee experienced a 36% Y/Y growth in the number of brands on the platform, indicating that Shopee is an increasingly important partner in growing its online revenue.SE 10-QThe more important portion is Shopee’s improvement in profitability. Its overall adjusted EBITDA loss per order continues to improve by 23.5% sequentially, and more specifically, Shopee Brazil’s loss per order improved by 27.5% sequentially during the quarter as compared to 6.6% in the last quarter. Moreover, Shopee is expected to attain profitability by FY23 instead of FY25 as previously guided by the management. This goes to show that the management has made great strides in pursuing profitability, which is impressive in my view. Once it attained self-sufficiency, growth can reaccelerate, although, the management is expecting flat or negative growth in certain metrics in the near term.SeaBankNote that I will be using “SeaBank” and “SeaMoney” interchangeably.SE 10-QSeaMoney’s loan receivables grew 46% from 4Q21 and 110% from 3Q21 to $2.2 billion. These are loans provided to customers whereby SeaMoney generates revenue by charging interest rates, and it has been growing quickly. In myprevious article, I showed that in Sep 2022, SeaBank Indonesia grew its loans and customer deposits by 111% Y/Y and 147% Y/Y, respectively, and the launch of ShopeePay in Brazil. During the earnings call, management stated that the credit business is profitable and cash flow positive, and it will be focusing on growing this business in Southeast Asia (“SEA”) and Brazil.Additionally, they have also said to diversify their source of funding for the credit business, which I believe is to seek third-party financing partners to reduce the capital required for the business and at the same time, reduce credit risk. Similar to Bank Jago (IDX: ARTO), SeaBank may utilize the data of its partners to help improve the non-performing loans and scale its lending. Readers who are unaware of SeaBank’s business model can head to mydeep diveinto the company.SE 10-QSE 10-QSE 10-QAs a result of its growing deposits and loan books, its Q3 2022 revenue grew 147% Y/Y, and it has been increasingly making up a bigger portion of its overall revenue at 10.4% this quarter. Management had also been deliberate in cutting down on S&M expenses and combined with its acceleration revenue growth, its adjusted EBITDA margin has improved massively to -20.7% during the quarter. This is compared to -40% in 2Q22 and -120.3% a year ago.Sufficient Cash Reserves To Pay off Convertible NotesSE 10-QOne of the biggest concerns about Sea Limited for investors is the cash burn rate, as they fear that the company does not have enough sufficient cash reserves to pay off convertible notes maturing in 2026. However, not only did the cash outflow slow in Q3 2022, but the management has also hinted that there are sufficient cash reserves to pay off the convertible notes:“We aim to continue to maintain a net cash position, after budgeting for the full retirement in cash of outstanding convertible bonds and assuming no external funding.”ConclusionOverall, this was a pretty decent quarter for Sea Limited, as we could see that they had made huge improvements on the road to profitability, particularly for Shopee. While that comes at a growth trade-off, management has indicated that Shopee can reaccelerate its growth after attaining profitability in FY23, which is pulled forward from FY25 as guided previously.Garena's results continue to be a concern as macro seems to have a longer-than-expected impact on its user base and its profitability as a result has been trending downwards over the past couple of quarters. Management has been working hard on its gaming pipelines, although the uncertainty lies in the successes of these new games and whether they could reaccelerate their growth in the future.SeaBank has been growing its top line really quickly and huge improvements were made on the bottom line as well. Furthermore, the overall credit business is profitable and is generating positive cash flow, and has been increasingly making up a larger proportion of its total revenue. I continue to believe that this can be a potential growth driver for Sea Limited.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9929612756,"gmtCreate":1670647633776,"gmtModify":1676538412316,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What's the point in being so rich if you can't even buy a peaceful night's rest","listText":"What's the point in being so rich if you can't even buy a peaceful night's rest","text":"What's the point in being so rich if you can't even buy a peaceful night's rest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9929612756","repostId":"1162956047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162956047","pubTimestamp":1670641810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162956047?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-12-10 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Probes FTX Founder for Fraud, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162956047","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Scope of inquiry includes transfers around time of bankruptcyIt’s part of broad effort by prosecutor","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Scope of inquiry includes transfers around time of bankruptcy</li><li>It’s part of broad effort by prosecutors to track client funds</li></ul><p>US prosecutors, laying the groundwork for a potential fraud case against Sam Bankman-Fried and others involved in the collapse of cryptocurrency giant FTX, are scrutinizing how funds held by the exchange operator moved outside the US as it was hurtling toward bankruptcy, according to a person familiar with the matter.</p><p>Prosecutors are closely examining whether hundreds of millions of dollars were improperly transferred to the Bahamas around the time of FTX’s Nov. 11 bankruptcy filing in Delaware, the person said, asking not to be named without authorization to discuss the case publicly.</p><p>As Justice Department officials embark on a sweeping investigation into how FTX handled customers’ cash and assets, they met this week with FTX’s court-appointed overseers to discuss materials they aim to gather, the person said. They’re also digging into whether FTX broke the law by transferring funds to Alameda Research, the bankrupt investment firm also founded by Bankman-Fried, an area of inquiry that has been reported previously.</p><p>Bankman-Fried, who’s in the Bahamas and hasn’t been charged with any crimes, has admitted to grievous managerial errors at FTX but steadfastly denied that he ever knowingly misused customers’ funds. A spokesperson for Bankman-Fried declined to comment on Friday.</p><p>The <i>New York Times</i> reported this week that federal prosecutors are also examining whether Bankman-Fried engaged in market manipulation by orchestrating trades that led to the collapse of the TerraUSD ecosystem earlier this year.</p><p>Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, including Assistant US Attorney Nicolas Roos, met for about two hours this week in a conference room in lower Manhattan with dozens of people investigating FTX’s collapse. Potential charges were not discussed at the organizational meeting. A spokesperson for the Southern District declined to comment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/661e84b000f8b6c98785f5dde1ac1991\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"666\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>John Ray arrives at bankruptcy court in Wilmington, Delaware, on Nov. 22.Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg</span></p><p>The meeting included officials from that office and the Justice Department in Washington, agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the bankruptcy team led by John J. Ray III, who was appointed FTX’s chief executive officer last month. Lawyers for FTX from Sullivan &amp; Cromwell, including former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement director Steve Peikin and former Manhattan federal prosecutor Nicole Friedlander, were also present, the people said.</p><p>Roos helped prosecute Nikola Corp. founder Trevor Milton, who was convicted in October of misleading investors in the electric truck company.</p><p>Bankman-Fried has given a series of media interviews in the past month describing accounting mistakes that obscured the extent of FTX’s ties with Alameda and the risks that created. On Friday, he said on Twitter that he’s willing to testify at a Dec. 13 hearing before the US House Financial Services Committee about the disintegration of his crypto empire.</p><p>Bahamas-based FTX and more than 100 related entities, including the company’s US arm, sent shock waves across the crypto ecosystem with their bankruptcy filing last month. The group and its founder now face scrutiny from regulators and prosecutors in the US and overseas.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Probes FTX Founder for Fraud, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Probes FTX Founder for Fraud, Examines Cash Flows to Bahamas\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-10 11:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/us-probes-ftx-founder-for-fraud-examines-cash-flows-to-bahamas><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Scope of inquiry includes transfers around time of bankruptcyIt’s part of broad effort by prosecutors to track client fundsUS prosecutors, laying the groundwork for a potential fraud case against Sam ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/us-probes-ftx-founder-for-fraud-examines-cash-flows-to-bahamas\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-10/us-probes-ftx-founder-for-fraud-examines-cash-flows-to-bahamas","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162956047","content_text":"Scope of inquiry includes transfers around time of bankruptcyIt’s part of broad effort by prosecutors to track client fundsUS prosecutors, laying the groundwork for a potential fraud case against Sam Bankman-Fried and others involved in the collapse of cryptocurrency giant FTX, are scrutinizing how funds held by the exchange operator moved outside the US as it was hurtling toward bankruptcy, according to a person familiar with the matter.Prosecutors are closely examining whether hundreds of millions of dollars were improperly transferred to the Bahamas around the time of FTX’s Nov. 11 bankruptcy filing in Delaware, the person said, asking not to be named without authorization to discuss the case publicly.As Justice Department officials embark on a sweeping investigation into how FTX handled customers’ cash and assets, they met this week with FTX’s court-appointed overseers to discuss materials they aim to gather, the person said. They’re also digging into whether FTX broke the law by transferring funds to Alameda Research, the bankrupt investment firm also founded by Bankman-Fried, an area of inquiry that has been reported previously.Bankman-Fried, who’s in the Bahamas and hasn’t been charged with any crimes, has admitted to grievous managerial errors at FTX but steadfastly denied that he ever knowingly misused customers’ funds. A spokesperson for Bankman-Fried declined to comment on Friday.The New York Times reported this week that federal prosecutors are also examining whether Bankman-Fried engaged in market manipulation by orchestrating trades that led to the collapse of the TerraUSD ecosystem earlier this year.Prosecutors in the Southern District of New York, including Assistant US Attorney Nicolas Roos, met for about two hours this week in a conference room in lower Manhattan with dozens of people investigating FTX’s collapse. Potential charges were not discussed at the organizational meeting. A spokesperson for the Southern District declined to comment.John Ray arrives at bankruptcy court in Wilmington, Delaware, on Nov. 22.Photographer: Sarah Silbiger/BloombergThe meeting included officials from that office and the Justice Department in Washington, agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the bankruptcy team led by John J. Ray III, who was appointed FTX’s chief executive officer last month. Lawyers for FTX from Sullivan & Cromwell, including former Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement director Steve Peikin and former Manhattan federal prosecutor Nicole Friedlander, were also present, the people said.Roos helped prosecute Nikola Corp. founder Trevor Milton, who was convicted in October of misleading investors in the electric truck company.Bankman-Fried has given a series of media interviews in the past month describing accounting mistakes that obscured the extent of FTX’s ties with Alameda and the risks that created. On Friday, he said on Twitter that he’s willing to testify at a Dec. 13 hearing before the US House Financial Services Committee about the disintegration of his crypto empire.Bahamas-based FTX and more than 100 related entities, including the company’s US arm, sent shock waves across the crypto ecosystem with their bankruptcy filing last month. The group and its founder now face scrutiny from regulators and prosecutors in the US and overseas.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952337980,"gmtCreate":1674444096940,"gmtModify":1676538940687,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"12-15 times of forward pe 2024? Personally I have my doubts.. Good luck to tesla bulls","listText":"12-15 times of forward pe 2024? Personally I have my doubts.. Good luck to tesla bulls","text":"12-15 times of forward pe 2024? Personally I have my doubts.. Good luck to tesla bulls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952337980","repostId":"2305998490","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2305998490","pubTimestamp":1674426600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2305998490?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-23 06:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Finally Cheap - Strong Buy Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2305998490","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla and cheap are two words that you don't typically see together.However, with the stock c","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Tesla and cheap are two words that you don&#39;t typically see together.</li><li>However, with the stock crashing by 75% from peak to trough, Tesla&#39;s stock looks relatively inexpensive.</li><li>Tesla&#39;s stock only trades at 12-15 times higher end forward (2024) earnings estimates.</li><li>Tesla is not a value company, and as sentiment improves, Tesla&#39;s stock should move much higher in the coming years.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f82a1d65c16e837c65e45c41b4c892e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Spencer Platt</span></p><p>Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been on a wild rollercoaster ride in recent years. I was long the company&#39;s stock throughout most of the time from October 2013 to early November 2021. However, I called out the company&#39;s stock for being significantly overbought during theheight of the tech bubble in November 2021. I released my position at about $395 (split adjusted). The Tesla top materialized at about $420, and the stock recently hit a low of just $100, illustrating a spectacular 75% peak-to-trough decline during this bear market phase.</p><p><b>Tesla 1-Year Chart</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/282600a9c7bebad468d950c73312023d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>TSLA (StockCharts.com)</span></p><p>Tesla&#39;s epic decline may have culminated in a bottom around the $100 level. Even if Tesla&#39;s stock were to travel lower, the downside is likely limited, and with Tesla&#39;s stock price at $100 or lower, the shares are essentially a gift. Tesla is trading at around 20 times projected EPS estimates (consensus). However, the stock may sell at 12-15 times forward EPS estimates if the company can achieve higher-end EPS results. Also, Tesla is far from a value stock and could continue delivering 30-20% revenue growth for most of the decade. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s stock price is oversold and undervalued and is a strong buy intermediate and long term.</p><h2>China: The Key Component to Tesla&#39;s Success</h2><p>China is a critical market for Tesla. Fortunately, Tesla has the necessary ingredients to do great things in China. Firstly, China remains the crucial and most lucrative electric vehicle (&#34;EV&#34;) market globally. China&#39;s population is more than four times that of the U.S., with more than 500 million drivers. Moreover, China is exceptionally EV-friendly and has the most dynamic EV market globally. China sold 5.67 million EVs and plug-ins in 2022. More than four million vehicles were 100% EVs, more than five times the number of all-electric vehicles sold in the U.S. last year.</p><p><b>China EV Sales - Up Almost 200% Over 18 Months</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a05966b50379cec911eaf85401fa4a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>EV Sales (FT.com)</span></p><p>During this challenging slowdown, most of the global EV growth has come from China. While Europe and North American sales have increased modestly, China&#39;s EV sales have skyrocketed, nearly tripling in the last 18 months. Also, global EV sales should rebound in crucial markets that have lagged recently. Therefore, Tesla and other EV sales will likely boom in critical markets like China, North America, Europe, and others as the company advances in the coming years.</p><h2>Tesla&#39;s Price-Cut Advantage</h2><p>Tesla is well-positioned to capitalize on China&#39;s booming EV transition. The company&#39;s registrations surged last month. Tesla delivered more than 710,000 vehicles from its Shanghai factory in 2022. Tesla&#39;s sales surged after the company dropped prices in China, illustrating another advantage due to Tesla&#39;s economies of scale and remarkably high profitability. Tesla can lower prices in other areas globally to spur sales and improve demand while the slowdown persists. The company can scale prices back up as the next recovery materializes.</p><p>Tesla remains the leader in innovation and technology in the EV segment and is akin to the iPhone of electric cars. Therefore, Tesla vehicles should continue garnering substantial demand in China and globally. China EV sales surged by 71% in November, with Tesla delivering a record 100,291 Chinese-made cars. Tesla&#39;s Model 3 and Y vehicles remain wildly popular in China and many parts of the world. Tesla should continue growing revenues substantially as its China, Asia, Europe, and other business segments continue expanding in future years.</p><p><b>Tesla&#39;s Outstanding Deliveries Data</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/520bd1d43d0eca0ae2f272382423e07f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Deliveries (Statista.com)</span></p><p>Tesla closed out 2022 with more than 1.3 million vehicle deliveries. The surge represents a unit sales increase of 40% over last year. In Q4, Tesla reported deliveries of roughly 405K cars and production of about 440K vehicles. The lag in deliveries (relative to production) could be due to year-end orders that should transfer over to Q1 deliveries. Regardless, Tesla continues showing remarkable production capacity and significant growth momentum that should continue for years.</p><h2>Q4 - Strong Deliveries Translate to Significant Revenue</h2><p>Tesla delivered 17,147 Models S/X vehicles, 9% of which were subject to leasing. Therefore, Tesla sold approximately 15,604 Model S/X vehicles last quarter. Using an ASP of $120,000 for Tesla&#39;s premium models, the company likely made <i>$1.9 billion</i> in revenues from Model S/X sales in Q4.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s Model 3/Y segment delivered 388,131 vehicles last quarter, 4% of which were subject to lease accounting. Therefore, Tesla sold approximately 372,606 Model 3/Y vehicles in the fourth quarter. Even with the recent price cuts, I suspect the ASP came in around $50,000. Thus, Tesla&#39;s Model 3/Y segment may have delivered around <i>$18.7 billion</i> in Q4.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s leasing, energy generation and storage, and services segments may have provided around <i>$3.8 billion</i> in revenues in the fourth quarter. Therefore, Tesla&#39;s revenues should be around <i>$24.5 billion</i> for the fourth quarter, roughly a 38% YoY revenue increase.</p><p><b>Revenue Estimates</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df73bdd213e08fde9e99d50f286555c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Revenue Estimates (seekingalpha.com)</span></p><p>2022&#39;s revenues should come in at about <i>$82 billion</i> (52% YoY growth), and we should continue seeing significant revenue growth in the coming years. We could see 20-30% YoY revenue growth for most of this decade. Provided the consensus estimates, Tesla is trading at less than three times next year&#39;s (2024) projected sales. Additionally, Tesla is becoming increasingly cheap on a P/E basis.</p><h2>Is Tesla a Value Company Now?</h2><p><b>EPS Estimates</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7158db60b7f0e99d393120ce4c94c215\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"218\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>EPS Estimates (seekingalpha.com)</span></p><p>While Tesla&#39;s 2022 EPS should come in at approximately $4, the company should earn more than $6 in 2024. Therefore, Tesla is trading at just 20 times the forward consensus EPS estimate. Additionally, EPS estimates have been lowered due to the transitory economic slowdown. There is a strong probability that Tesla could outperform in 2024, delivering $8-10 in EPS instead of the projected $6.10 consensus estimate figure. If Tesla achieves my $8-10 EPS estimate in 2024, the company will be trading at just 12-15 times forward earnings now. This valuation is remarkably cheap for a dominant market-leading growth company in Tesla&#39;s position. Therefore, as the slowdown moderates and market sentiment improves, Tesla&#39;s stock price should travel significantly higher.</p><p><b>What Wall St. Thinks</b></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74dfd93b94caf5f438fe1e404546898\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Price Targets (seekingalpha.com)</span></p><p>While the lowest price target remains incredibly depressed below $100, the average analyst on Wall St. expects the company&#39;s stock to appreciate by about 56% by the end of the year. Some very bullish estimates project a stock price of around <i>$350</i>. However, I am more modest and believe Tesla&#39;s stock could reach approximately $250 by year-end, doubling from current levels. Moreover, Tesla&#39;s stock price could increase several-fold over the next few years.</p><p>Here&#39;s Where Tesla&#39;s Stock Could Be By 2030</p><table><tbody><tr><td><b>Year</b></td><td><b>2023</b></td><td><b>2024</b></td><td><b>2025</b></td><td><b>2026</b></td><td><b>2027</b></td><td><b>2028</b></td><td><b>2029</b></td><td><b>2030</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Revenue Bs</b></td><td>$124</td><td>$178</td><td>$235</td><td>$315</td><td>$400</td><td>$510</td><td>$640</td><td>$770</td></tr><tr><td><b>Revenue growth</b></td><td>51%</td><td>44%</td><td>32%</td><td>34%</td><td>27%</td><td>27%</td><td>25%</td><td>20%</td></tr><tr><td><b>EPS</b></td><td>$7</td><td>$10</td><td>$14</td><td>$19</td><td>$25</td><td>$32</td><td>$38</td><td>$45</td></tr><tr><td><b>EPS growth</b></td><td>70%</td><td>43%</td><td>40%</td><td>38%</td><td>32%</td><td>28%</td><td>19%</td><td>18%</td></tr><tr><td><b>Forward P/E</b></td><td>12</td><td>15</td><td>18</td><td>21</td><td>22</td><td>21</td><td>20</td><td>19</td></tr><tr><td><b>Stock price</b></td><td>$120</td><td>$210</td><td>$342</td><td>$525</td><td>$704</td><td>$798</td><td>$900</td><td>$1,007</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Source: The Financial Prophet</p><h2>Risks to Tesla</h2><p><b>There are risks</b> - The company may miss earnings and revenue estimates. Furthermore, a slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, issues with regulators and foreign governments, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to move higher. Serious concerns could cause Tesla&#39;s valuation to lose altitude, and the company&#39;s share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, one should consider these and other risks before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.</p><p><i>This article is written by Victor Dergunov for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Finally Cheap - Strong Buy Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Finally Cheap - Strong Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-23 06:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4571301-tesla-is-finally-cheap-strong-buy-now><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla and cheap are two words that you don't typically see together.However, with the stock crashing by 75% from peak to trough, Tesla's stock looks relatively inexpensive.Tesla's stock only ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4571301-tesla-is-finally-cheap-strong-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap","BK4574":"无人驾驶","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4527":"明星科技股"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4571301-tesla-is-finally-cheap-strong-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2305998490","content_text":"SummaryTesla and cheap are two words that you don't typically see together.However, with the stock crashing by 75% from peak to trough, Tesla's stock looks relatively inexpensive.Tesla's stock only trades at 12-15 times higher end forward (2024) earnings estimates.Tesla is not a value company, and as sentiment improves, Tesla's stock should move much higher in the coming years.Spencer PlattTesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been on a wild rollercoaster ride in recent years. I was long the company's stock throughout most of the time from October 2013 to early November 2021. However, I called out the company's stock for being significantly overbought during theheight of the tech bubble in November 2021. I released my position at about $395 (split adjusted). The Tesla top materialized at about $420, and the stock recently hit a low of just $100, illustrating a spectacular 75% peak-to-trough decline during this bear market phase.Tesla 1-Year ChartTSLA (StockCharts.com)Tesla's epic decline may have culminated in a bottom around the $100 level. Even if Tesla's stock were to travel lower, the downside is likely limited, and with Tesla's stock price at $100 or lower, the shares are essentially a gift. Tesla is trading at around 20 times projected EPS estimates (consensus). However, the stock may sell at 12-15 times forward EPS estimates if the company can achieve higher-end EPS results. Also, Tesla is far from a value stock and could continue delivering 30-20% revenue growth for most of the decade. Therefore, Tesla's stock price is oversold and undervalued and is a strong buy intermediate and long term.China: The Key Component to Tesla's SuccessChina is a critical market for Tesla. Fortunately, Tesla has the necessary ingredients to do great things in China. Firstly, China remains the crucial and most lucrative electric vehicle (\"EV\") market globally. China's population is more than four times that of the U.S., with more than 500 million drivers. Moreover, China is exceptionally EV-friendly and has the most dynamic EV market globally. China sold 5.67 million EVs and plug-ins in 2022. More than four million vehicles were 100% EVs, more than five times the number of all-electric vehicles sold in the U.S. last year.China EV Sales - Up Almost 200% Over 18 MonthsEV Sales (FT.com)During this challenging slowdown, most of the global EV growth has come from China. While Europe and North American sales have increased modestly, China's EV sales have skyrocketed, nearly tripling in the last 18 months. Also, global EV sales should rebound in crucial markets that have lagged recently. Therefore, Tesla and other EV sales will likely boom in critical markets like China, North America, Europe, and others as the company advances in the coming years.Tesla's Price-Cut AdvantageTesla is well-positioned to capitalize on China's booming EV transition. The company's registrations surged last month. Tesla delivered more than 710,000 vehicles from its Shanghai factory in 2022. Tesla's sales surged after the company dropped prices in China, illustrating another advantage due to Tesla's economies of scale and remarkably high profitability. Tesla can lower prices in other areas globally to spur sales and improve demand while the slowdown persists. The company can scale prices back up as the next recovery materializes.Tesla remains the leader in innovation and technology in the EV segment and is akin to the iPhone of electric cars. Therefore, Tesla vehicles should continue garnering substantial demand in China and globally. China EV sales surged by 71% in November, with Tesla delivering a record 100,291 Chinese-made cars. Tesla's Model 3 and Y vehicles remain wildly popular in China and many parts of the world. Tesla should continue growing revenues substantially as its China, Asia, Europe, and other business segments continue expanding in future years.Tesla's Outstanding Deliveries DataDeliveries (Statista.com)Tesla closed out 2022 with more than 1.3 million vehicle deliveries. The surge represents a unit sales increase of 40% over last year. In Q4, Tesla reported deliveries of roughly 405K cars and production of about 440K vehicles. The lag in deliveries (relative to production) could be due to year-end orders that should transfer over to Q1 deliveries. Regardless, Tesla continues showing remarkable production capacity and significant growth momentum that should continue for years.Q4 - Strong Deliveries Translate to Significant RevenueTesla delivered 17,147 Models S/X vehicles, 9% of which were subject to leasing. Therefore, Tesla sold approximately 15,604 Model S/X vehicles last quarter. Using an ASP of $120,000 for Tesla's premium models, the company likely made $1.9 billion in revenues from Model S/X sales in Q4.Tesla's Model 3/Y segment delivered 388,131 vehicles last quarter, 4% of which were subject to lease accounting. Therefore, Tesla sold approximately 372,606 Model 3/Y vehicles in the fourth quarter. Even with the recent price cuts, I suspect the ASP came in around $50,000. Thus, Tesla's Model 3/Y segment may have delivered around $18.7 billion in Q4.Tesla's leasing, energy generation and storage, and services segments may have provided around $3.8 billion in revenues in the fourth quarter. Therefore, Tesla's revenues should be around $24.5 billion for the fourth quarter, roughly a 38% YoY revenue increase.Revenue EstimatesRevenue Estimates (seekingalpha.com)2022's revenues should come in at about $82 billion (52% YoY growth), and we should continue seeing significant revenue growth in the coming years. We could see 20-30% YoY revenue growth for most of this decade. Provided the consensus estimates, Tesla is trading at less than three times next year's (2024) projected sales. Additionally, Tesla is becoming increasingly cheap on a P/E basis.Is Tesla a Value Company Now?EPS EstimatesEPS Estimates (seekingalpha.com)While Tesla's 2022 EPS should come in at approximately $4, the company should earn more than $6 in 2024. Therefore, Tesla is trading at just 20 times the forward consensus EPS estimate. Additionally, EPS estimates have been lowered due to the transitory economic slowdown. There is a strong probability that Tesla could outperform in 2024, delivering $8-10 in EPS instead of the projected $6.10 consensus estimate figure. If Tesla achieves my $8-10 EPS estimate in 2024, the company will be trading at just 12-15 times forward earnings now. This valuation is remarkably cheap for a dominant market-leading growth company in Tesla's position. Therefore, as the slowdown moderates and market sentiment improves, Tesla's stock price should travel significantly higher.What Wall St. ThinksPrice Targets (seekingalpha.com)While the lowest price target remains incredibly depressed below $100, the average analyst on Wall St. expects the company's stock to appreciate by about 56% by the end of the year. Some very bullish estimates project a stock price of around $350. However, I am more modest and believe Tesla's stock could reach approximately $250 by year-end, doubling from current levels. Moreover, Tesla's stock price could increase several-fold over the next few years.Here's Where Tesla's Stock Could Be By 2030Year20232024202520262027202820292030Revenue Bs$124$178$235$315$400$510$640$770Revenue growth51%44%32%34%27%27%25%20%EPS$7$10$14$19$25$32$38$45EPS growth70%43%40%38%32%28%19%18%Forward P/E1215182122212019Stock price$120$210$342$525$704$798$900$1,007Source: The Financial ProphetRisks to TeslaThere are risks - The company may miss earnings and revenue estimates. Furthermore, a slowdown in demand, increased competition, supply issues, decreased growth, issues with regulators and foreign governments, and other variables are all risks we should consider before betting on Tesla to move higher. Serious concerns could cause Tesla's valuation to lose altitude, and the company's share price could even head in reverse if any serious issues should arise. Therefore, one should consider these and other risks before committing any capital to a Tesla investment.This article is written by Victor Dergunov for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910271117,"gmtCreate":1663636190140,"gmtModify":1676537305480,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910271117","repostId":"1138109779","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138109779","pubTimestamp":1663657079,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138109779?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-09-20 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138109779","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryBased on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Based on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price than U.S. hours trading, I have constructed an indicator reflecting this divergence.</li><li>The indicator reflects the difference between average prices during regular and afterhours trading and trends down during a bear market (vice versa for bull market).</li><li>Based on this indicator&#39;s performance from 2006 to present, we are currently still in a bear market.</li><li>During the March 2020 Coronavirus pandemic, this indicator was screaming buy despite the sharp declines in the market during that month.</li></ul><p>The Nasdaq has experienced several sharp declines since bottoming in 2009, but the right strategy has been to buy the dip each time. We will use Nasdaq 100 futures (which track the Nasdaq 100 index, same as the Invesco QQQ ETF) for our analysis. For simplicity purposes, if we use the 200-day moving average as a benchmark, Nasdaq 100 has been under the 200-day MA for 852 days out of the last 4236 trading days. 2022 so far has seen the most number of days under the 200-day MA since 2008.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fa6bb04bc853fbd931923244cc99010\" tg-width=\"322\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Days below 200 day MA (Author calc on public info)</p><p>So this begs the question, is the current dip a buy or a sell? Given that the right move has been to buy for the last 13 years, how can we tell this time?</p><p>This article is based on an observation: during a downtrend, the Nasdaq 100 index futures are often trading flat or even up before the U.S. equities markets open, and then it suddenly starts to head south during the U.S. session (9:30 AM to 4 PM ET).</p><p>Based on this observation, I constructed an indicator (which I will call &#34;Regular/After-hours Divergence Indicator,&#34; or &#34;RAD&#34;) using all-day Nasdaq 100 index futures data to show divergence between U.S. session regular hours (i.e., 9:30 AM to 4 PM) and afterhours. For details on how RAD is calculated, please see the appendix at the bottom.</p><p>I will use the Nasdaq 100 index futures as it has regular and afterhours trading, whereas the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) has more limited afterhours trading data.</p><ul><li>A positive RAD means that average prices during the regular hours are higher than after hours, vice versa for a negative RAD. The cumulative RAD is shown below (i.e., the daily RAD is added cumulatively). The results are plotted below against the Nasdaq 100.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a31fa4d91f6e2f217f96ffedcbe75b0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><ul><li>It appears the RAD is trendless or trends positively in a bull market and trends negatively in a bear market/correction. Which means in a bear market, afterhours trading is generally at a higher price before declining during regular hours trading (this is consistent with our observation and feel of how the market usually behaves).</li><li>It is hard to precisely explain this phenomenon, it could be that:</li></ul><ul><li>If we combine this with 200-day MA (greyed out areas represent those days/periods where the closing prices were under the 200-day MA), we can see that the sharp moves down in the RAD coincide with the periods where the closing price was below the 200-day MA, while the RAD levelled off or increased when the closing price was above the 200-day MA.</li></ul><p>Let&#39;s break it down into a few major periods and see how the RAD performed in each.</p><p><b>Apr 2006-Dec 2009</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f009ba873bff7511fd700c2356c7d8e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><p>In 2006-2007, both the Nasdaq 100 and the RAD largely trended in the same direction and the RAD hovered around 0% and did not portend the tectonic shift to come.</p><p>The RAD sharply fell after the September 2008 Lehman shock and continued to fall till bottoming in February 2009 (stocks ultimately bottomed in March 2009). From February 2009 onwards, the RAD largely did not trend though it fluctuated on a day-to-day basis.</p><p><b>2010-2014</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc1edef16b00f55de39e5890b823d3f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><p>2010 started with a selloff in mid to late 2010. During this period, Nasdaq 100 spent a lot of time oscillating around the 200-day MA as the European debt crisis simmered, but there was not a major negative movement in the RAD and stocks resumed their upward course.</p><p><b>2015-2019</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d88b8cb61e2fe0a41c28f2eeebdc04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><p>From 2015-2019, the RAD showed a persistently negative move in Sep-2015 to Mar-2016 but afterwards it did not deteriorate any further and stocks resumed their upward trend. Amazingly, during this entire trade war period, the RAD did not show much of a negative move except in late 2018. Most of the time the RAD oscillated nowhere and stocks went up.</p><p><b>2020-present</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/815e2eef76ef056d502e7cd89efda830\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)</p><p>Note:</p><p>Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.</p><p>This period gets very interesting. Despite a sharp sell-off in March 2020, RAD trended up (meaning regular hours trading had prices higher than afterhours) for most of the period! The RAD was screaming buy while the media was hyping up 100% infection rates on a certain unfortunate cruise ship and Europeans going into lockdown, etc.</p><p>The RAD started persistently falling in Nov-21, similar to when stocks overall began declining. Since then the Nasdaq has mostly been under the 200-day MA and the RAD has entered a fresh bout of declining since August 2022.</p><p><b>Where are we in the current stage:</b></p><p>From the chart above, it&#39;s apparent the current downtrend is the longest time spent below 200-day MA for 13 years, and also the sharpest and longest decline in the RAD in the past 13 years, and the RAD has recently continued declining rather than bottoming out. The last time it was this bearish in 2008/2009, the RAD indicator and Nasdaq spent 5 months bottoming out, before entering into a bull market.<i>Per 2008-2009, once this indicator starts to level out and the Nasdaq regains the 200-day MA, it may be a sign of a real bottom, but it appears we may yet be some time away.</i></p><p>I am not presenting this indicator as a silver bullet, however, it may be helpful:</p><ul><li>As a high frequency indicator (economic indicators and earnings are much more lagging). It is especially interesting to see despite the large declines in U.S. equities during the March 2020 coronavirus panic, U.S. regular trading hour session investors were more interested in buying equities than the afterhours investors, which may have been a good indicator of where the smart money was going when every other price-based indicator would have gone haywire, economic data would not be known for months and the news implied the apocalypse was just days away.</li><li>The reader is encouraged to do his own iterations, I&#39;m sure there can be fancier iterations (e.g., adding volatility, cross-checking with other indicators, etc.), I will just show the bare-bones analysis in this article without any bells and whistles.</li></ul><p><b>Appendix: Calculation methodology of RAD</b></p><ul><li>Calculated average price for the regular trading hours and after hours for each day based on Nasdaq 100 index futures 5-minute data from Apr 2006 (two years before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 to establish a baseline) to mid-Sept 2022.</li><li>Subtracted for the difference and converted into a percentage.</li><li>9:30 AM to 4 PM as U.S. sessions regular trading hours (referred to below as regular trading hours) and all other hours as afterhours.</li><li>The difference is then added cumulatively, so it is easier to see a trend (as there are large gyrations day-to-day, if the daily results are plotted, the trend is less obvious).</li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The Nasdaq In A Bear Market: One High Frequency Indicator Says Yes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 14:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541853-is-the-nasdaq-in-a-bear-market-one-high-frequency-indicator-says-yes><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryBased on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price than U.S. hours trading, I have constructed an indicator reflecting this divergence.The indicator ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541853-is-the-nasdaq-in-a-bear-market-one-high-frequency-indicator-says-yes\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541853-is-the-nasdaq-in-a-bear-market-one-high-frequency-indicator-says-yes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138109779","content_text":"SummaryBased on the observation that in a bear market afterhours trading is often at a higher price than U.S. hours trading, I have constructed an indicator reflecting this divergence.The indicator reflects the difference between average prices during regular and afterhours trading and trends down during a bear market (vice versa for bull market).Based on this indicator's performance from 2006 to present, we are currently still in a bear market.During the March 2020 Coronavirus pandemic, this indicator was screaming buy despite the sharp declines in the market during that month.The Nasdaq has experienced several sharp declines since bottoming in 2009, but the right strategy has been to buy the dip each time. We will use Nasdaq 100 futures (which track the Nasdaq 100 index, same as the Invesco QQQ ETF) for our analysis. For simplicity purposes, if we use the 200-day moving average as a benchmark, Nasdaq 100 has been under the 200-day MA for 852 days out of the last 4236 trading days. 2022 so far has seen the most number of days under the 200-day MA since 2008.Days below 200 day MA (Author calc on public info)So this begs the question, is the current dip a buy or a sell? Given that the right move has been to buy for the last 13 years, how can we tell this time?This article is based on an observation: during a downtrend, the Nasdaq 100 index futures are often trading flat or even up before the U.S. equities markets open, and then it suddenly starts to head south during the U.S. session (9:30 AM to 4 PM ET).Based on this observation, I constructed an indicator (which I will call \"Regular/After-hours Divergence Indicator,\" or \"RAD\") using all-day Nasdaq 100 index futures data to show divergence between U.S. session regular hours (i.e., 9:30 AM to 4 PM) and afterhours. For details on how RAD is calculated, please see the appendix at the bottom.I will use the Nasdaq 100 index futures as it has regular and afterhours trading, whereas the Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) has more limited afterhours trading data.A positive RAD means that average prices during the regular hours are higher than after hours, vice versa for a negative RAD. The cumulative RAD is shown below (i.e., the daily RAD is added cumulatively). The results are plotted below against the Nasdaq 100.RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.It appears the RAD is trendless or trends positively in a bull market and trends negatively in a bear market/correction. Which means in a bear market, afterhours trading is generally at a higher price before declining during regular hours trading (this is consistent with our observation and feel of how the market usually behaves).It is hard to precisely explain this phenomenon, it could be that:If we combine this with 200-day MA (greyed out areas represent those days/periods where the closing prices were under the 200-day MA), we can see that the sharp moves down in the RAD coincide with the periods where the closing price was below the 200-day MA, while the RAD levelled off or increased when the closing price was above the 200-day MA.Let's break it down into a few major periods and see how the RAD performed in each.Apr 2006-Dec 2009RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.In 2006-2007, both the Nasdaq 100 and the RAD largely trended in the same direction and the RAD hovered around 0% and did not portend the tectonic shift to come.The RAD sharply fell after the September 2008 Lehman shock and continued to fall till bottoming in February 2009 (stocks ultimately bottomed in March 2009). From February 2009 onwards, the RAD largely did not trend though it fluctuated on a day-to-day basis.2010-2014RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.2010 started with a selloff in mid to late 2010. During this period, Nasdaq 100 spent a lot of time oscillating around the 200-day MA as the European debt crisis simmered, but there was not a major negative movement in the RAD and stocks resumed their upward course.2015-2019RAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.From 2015-2019, the RAD showed a persistently negative move in Sep-2015 to Mar-2016 but afterwards it did not deteriorate any further and stocks resumed their upward trend. Amazingly, during this entire trade war period, the RAD did not show much of a negative move except in late 2018. Most of the time the RAD oscillated nowhere and stocks went up.2020-presentRAD vs Nasdaq 100 (Author calc based on Nasdaq 100 index futures continuous contract)Note:Greyed out areas indicate days/periods where the closing price was below the 200-day moving average.This period gets very interesting. Despite a sharp sell-off in March 2020, RAD trended up (meaning regular hours trading had prices higher than afterhours) for most of the period! The RAD was screaming buy while the media was hyping up 100% infection rates on a certain unfortunate cruise ship and Europeans going into lockdown, etc.The RAD started persistently falling in Nov-21, similar to when stocks overall began declining. Since then the Nasdaq has mostly been under the 200-day MA and the RAD has entered a fresh bout of declining since August 2022.Where are we in the current stage:From the chart above, it's apparent the current downtrend is the longest time spent below 200-day MA for 13 years, and also the sharpest and longest decline in the RAD in the past 13 years, and the RAD has recently continued declining rather than bottoming out. The last time it was this bearish in 2008/2009, the RAD indicator and Nasdaq spent 5 months bottoming out, before entering into a bull market.Per 2008-2009, once this indicator starts to level out and the Nasdaq regains the 200-day MA, it may be a sign of a real bottom, but it appears we may yet be some time away.I am not presenting this indicator as a silver bullet, however, it may be helpful:As a high frequency indicator (economic indicators and earnings are much more lagging). It is especially interesting to see despite the large declines in U.S. equities during the March 2020 coronavirus panic, U.S. regular trading hour session investors were more interested in buying equities than the afterhours investors, which may have been a good indicator of where the smart money was going when every other price-based indicator would have gone haywire, economic data would not be known for months and the news implied the apocalypse was just days away.The reader is encouraged to do his own iterations, I'm sure there can be fancier iterations (e.g., adding volatility, cross-checking with other indicators, etc.), I will just show the bare-bones analysis in this article without any bells and whistles.Appendix: Calculation methodology of RADCalculated average price for the regular trading hours and after hours for each day based on Nasdaq 100 index futures 5-minute data from Apr 2006 (two years before the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 to establish a baseline) to mid-Sept 2022.Subtracted for the difference and converted into a percentage.9:30 AM to 4 PM as U.S. sessions regular trading hours (referred to below as regular trading hours) and all other hours as afterhours.The difference is then added cumulatively, so it is easier to see a trend (as there are large gyrations day-to-day, if the daily results are plotted, the trend is less obvious).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9994458329,"gmtCreate":1661678382364,"gmtModify":1676536560293,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good info","listText":"Good info","text":"Good info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9994458329","repostId":"2262154492","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2262154492","pubTimestamp":1661656790,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2262154492?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-28 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Top Stocks Cathie Wood Is Selling This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2262154492","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Investors recently poured $54.2 million into the $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$Companies sold by Ark Invest this week include $Signify Health (SGFY)$ and $Vertex Pharmaceuticals(VRTX)$.The ARKK ETF is dow","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>Investors recently poured $54.2 million into the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a></li><li>Companies sold by <b>Ark Invest</b> this week include <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGFY\">Signify Health </a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VRTX\">Vertex Pharmaceuticals</a>.</li><li>The ARKK ETF is down by over 50% year-to-date.</li></ul><p>Shares of Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund (ETF), the <b>ARK Innovation ETF</b> closed the week down about 2.5%, losing out on earlier gains during the week. However, retail investors haven’t lost hope in ARKK, or Cathie Wood just yet.</p><p>In the five trading days that ended Aug. 15, investors poured $54.2 million into ARKK, the most in a five-day span since May. The ETF is still down over 50% year-to-date (YTD), even after a significant rally from its June lows.</p><p>Cathie Wood continues to hold her highest conviction holdings, such as <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>TSLA</u></b>) and <b>Teladoc</b> (NYSE:<b><u>TDOC</u></b>). At the same time, she has sold off shares of lower conviction holdings in favor of new names. Let’s get into the details.</p><h2>5 Stocks That Cathie Wood Sold This Week</h2><h3><b>1.</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGFY\">Signify Health </a></h3><p><b>Ark Invest</b><b><i> </i></b>continued its sales of <b>Signify Health</b> (NYSE:<b><u>SGFY</u></b>) for a third straight week. This week, ARKK and the <b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF</b> (BATS:<b><u>ARKG</u></b>) sold off a total of 3.14 million shares.</p><p>Earlier this week, it was reported that four companies, including <b>CVS</b> (NYSE:<b><u>CVS</u></b>) and <b>UnitedHealth</b> (NYSE:<b><u>UNH</u></b>), were competing to acquire the healthcare company. UnitedHealth submitted the highest offer of $30 per share, which is right around where shares of SGFY are trading. It seems that Cathie Wood is offloading her stake for a gain on an acquisition that may still fall through, reducing her risk. After the sales, Ark still owns 14.47 million shares of SGFY stock. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the sales continue.</p><h3><b>2.</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VRTX\">Vertex Pharmaceuticals </a></h3><p><b>Vertex Pharmaceuticals</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>VRTX</u></b>) operates as a biotechnology company that specializes in the treatment of underlying causes of cystic fibrosis. However, the company is branching out in a collaboration with <b>Crispr</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>CRSP</u></b>) to develop a blood disease gene-editing therapy called exa-cel. Exa-cell seeks to treat sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia and would cancel out the need to receive regular blood transfusions.</p><p>The two companies expect to submit their findings to regulatory agencies in the U.S. and Europe by the end of the year. If approved, Vertex could begin preparations to launch the therapy by Q3 of 2022. However, it appears that Wood won’t stick around to wait for the results. From August 22 to August 25, ARKG sold off 41,508 shares of VRTX. After the sales, the ETF owns less than 200,000 shares of the company.</p><h3><b>3. </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IOVA\">Iovance Biotherapeutics </a></h3><p><b>Iovance Biotherapeutics</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>IOVA</u></b>) operates as a biotechnology company that seeks to use cell therapies to treat cancer. The company is currently undergoing clinical trials to investigate tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (or TIL) therapy as a monotherapy. Iovance is also investigating TIL “as part of combination therapy in advanced solid tumor cancers including melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and cervical cancer.” In addition, Iovance is currently recruiting patients with different types of cancer to participate in the trials.</p><p>This week, ARKG reported selling 139,765 shares of IOVA. These were the first sales since Feb. 1. After the sales, the ETF still owns 2.79 million shares, making it the 36th largest position out of 50 total.</p><h3><b>4.</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ONEM\">1Life Healthcare </a></h3><p><b>1Life Healthcare </b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>ONEM</u></b>) recently made headlines after <b>Amazon</b> (NASDAQ:<b><u>AMZN</u></b>) announced that it would close Amazon Care, its primary care and telehealth service. In July, the e-commerce giant announced that it would acquire One Medical, which 1Life previously owned. One Medical owns over 182 medical offices in the U.S. and collects a subscription fee for access to its physicians and digital health services. Amazon stated that it was shutting down Amazon Care because its operations overlap with One Medical’s operations.</p><p>Now, it appears that Ark is losing faith in ONEM. Wood’s ARKG ETF sold 561,735 shares of ONEM between Aug. 22 and Aug. 25. After the sales, ARKG still owns 126,174 shares.</p><h3><b>5. </b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron </a></h3><p><b>Regeneron </b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>REGN</u></b>) is a well-known biotechnology company that produces and commercializes medicines for a variety of illnesses. The company reported its second-quarter earnings earlier this month, with revenue coming in at $2.86 billion, down 44% year-over-year. However, excluding impacts from REGEN-COV(a)(b), revenue would have increased by 20% YOY. Meanwhile, Regeneron remains profitable, reporting a diluted earnings per share (or EPS) of $7.47. At the end of the quarter, the company had 35 candidates in clinical development, including Dupixent and antibodies for the coronavirus.</p><p>However, it seems that Cathie Wood and company were not pleased with the results. This week, ARKG disposed of 6,924 shares of REGN. These were the first sales of REGN since March 14. After the sales, the ETF now owns a total of just 48,727 shares.</p></body></html>","source":"investorplace","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Top Stocks Cathie Wood Is Selling This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Top Stocks Cathie Wood Is Selling This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-28 11:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/08/5-top-stocks-cathie-wood-is-selling-this-week/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors recently poured $54.2 million into the ARK Innovation ETFCompanies sold by Ark Invest this week include Signify Health  and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.The ARKK ETF is down by over 50% year-to-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/5-top-stocks-cathie-wood-is-selling-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/08/5-top-stocks-cathie-wood-is-selling-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2262154492","content_text":"Investors recently poured $54.2 million into the ARK Innovation ETFCompanies sold by Ark Invest this week include Signify Health  and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.The ARKK ETF is down by over 50% year-to-date.Shares of Cathie Wood’s flagship exchange-traded fund (ETF), the ARK Innovation ETF closed the week down about 2.5%, losing out on earlier gains during the week. However, retail investors haven’t lost hope in ARKK, or Cathie Wood just yet.In the five trading days that ended Aug. 15, investors poured $54.2 million into ARKK, the most in a five-day span since May. The ETF is still down over 50% year-to-date (YTD), even after a significant rally from its June lows.Cathie Wood continues to hold her highest conviction holdings, such as Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Teladoc (NYSE:TDOC). At the same time, she has sold off shares of lower conviction holdings in favor of new names. Let’s get into the details.5 Stocks That Cathie Wood Sold This Week1. Signify Health Ark Invest continued its sales of Signify Health (NYSE:SGFY) for a third straight week. This week, ARKK and the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS:ARKG) sold off a total of 3.14 million shares.Earlier this week, it was reported that four companies, including CVS (NYSE:CVS) and UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH), were competing to acquire the healthcare company. UnitedHealth submitted the highest offer of $30 per share, which is right around where shares of SGFY are trading. It seems that Cathie Wood is offloading her stake for a gain on an acquisition that may still fall through, reducing her risk. After the sales, Ark still owns 14.47 million shares of SGFY stock. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the sales continue.2. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Vertex Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:VRTX) operates as a biotechnology company that specializes in the treatment of underlying causes of cystic fibrosis. However, the company is branching out in a collaboration with Crispr (NASDAQ:CRSP) to develop a blood disease gene-editing therapy called exa-cel. Exa-cell seeks to treat sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia and would cancel out the need to receive regular blood transfusions.The two companies expect to submit their findings to regulatory agencies in the U.S. and Europe by the end of the year. If approved, Vertex could begin preparations to launch the therapy by Q3 of 2022. However, it appears that Wood won’t stick around to wait for the results. From August 22 to August 25, ARKG sold off 41,508 shares of VRTX. After the sales, the ETF owns less than 200,000 shares of the company.3. Iovance Biotherapeutics Iovance Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:IOVA) operates as a biotechnology company that seeks to use cell therapies to treat cancer. The company is currently undergoing clinical trials to investigate tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (or TIL) therapy as a monotherapy. Iovance is also investigating TIL “as part of combination therapy in advanced solid tumor cancers including melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and cervical cancer.” In addition, Iovance is currently recruiting patients with different types of cancer to participate in the trials.This week, ARKG reported selling 139,765 shares of IOVA. These were the first sales since Feb. 1. After the sales, the ETF still owns 2.79 million shares, making it the 36th largest position out of 50 total.4. 1Life Healthcare 1Life Healthcare (NASDAQ:ONEM) recently made headlines after Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) announced that it would close Amazon Care, its primary care and telehealth service. In July, the e-commerce giant announced that it would acquire One Medical, which 1Life previously owned. One Medical owns over 182 medical offices in the U.S. and collects a subscription fee for access to its physicians and digital health services. Amazon stated that it was shutting down Amazon Care because its operations overlap with One Medical’s operations.Now, it appears that Ark is losing faith in ONEM. Wood’s ARKG ETF sold 561,735 shares of ONEM between Aug. 22 and Aug. 25. After the sales, ARKG still owns 126,174 shares.5. Regeneron Regeneron (NASDAQ:REGN) is a well-known biotechnology company that produces and commercializes medicines for a variety of illnesses. The company reported its second-quarter earnings earlier this month, with revenue coming in at $2.86 billion, down 44% year-over-year. However, excluding impacts from REGEN-COV(a)(b), revenue would have increased by 20% YOY. Meanwhile, Regeneron remains profitable, reporting a diluted earnings per share (or EPS) of $7.47. At the end of the quarter, the company had 35 candidates in clinical development, including Dupixent and antibodies for the coronavirus.However, it seems that Cathie Wood and company were not pleased with the results. This week, ARKG disposed of 6,924 shares of REGN. These were the first sales of REGN since March 14. After the sales, the ETF now owns a total of just 48,727 shares.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9072279946,"gmtCreate":1658049228085,"gmtModify":1676536098758,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9072279946","repostId":"2249540083","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2249540083","pubTimestamp":1658021139,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2249540083?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-17 09:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tycoon Whose Bet Broke the Nickel Market Walks Away a Billionaire","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2249540083","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) --By 2.08pm Shanghai time on March 8, it was clear that Xiang Guangda's giant ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) --By 2.08pm Shanghai time on March 8, it was clear that Xiang Guangda&#39;s giant bet on a fall in nickel prices was going spectacularly wrong.</p><p>Futures had just skyrocketed above US$100,000 a ton and his trade was more than US$10 billion underwater. It was threatening not only to bankrupt Mr Xiang&#39;s company, but to trigger a Lehman Brothers-like shock through the entire metals industry and possibly topple the London Metal Exchange (LME) itself.</p><p>But Mr Xiang was calm. Within hours, more than 50 bankers had arrived at his office wanting to hear how he planned to respond to the crisis. He told them simply: &#34;I&#39;m confident that we will overcome this.&#34;</p><p>And he did.</p><p>Four months on, the nickel price is falling, as Mr Xiang had predicted. The coterie of banks led by JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co that were baying for his blood has been repaid. He has closed out nearly all his short position in nickel, making a loss on the trade of about US$1 billion - a manageable sum given the profits being generated elsewhere in his business empire, say people who know him.</p><p>Crucially: the man nicknamed &#39;Big Shot&#39; in Chinese commodities circles is poised to walk away from the fiasco with his multibillion-dollar mining and steelmaking company, Tsingshan Holding Group, intact and even expanding.</p><p>But while Mr Xiang moves on, others are left dealing with the destruction wrought by the crisis. His miraculous escape was thanks in no small part to the actions of the LME, which controversially intervened to prevent prices from rising and then suspended trading until Mr Xiang had struck a deal with his banks.</p><p>Those on the other side of the trade, who lost billions, were furious. Months later, the LME is dealing with a raft of investigations and lawsuits, and the nickel market is still reeling.</p><p>&#34;Nice to see that @jpmorgan and The Big Shot got out of this whole thing with only scratches,&#34; Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, said last week in a tweet thick with sarcasm. &#34;It&#39;s just heart warming.&#34;</p><p>This account of how Mr Xiang extricated himself from a short squeeze that rocked the global metals markets is based on numerous interviews with people who were involved, all of whom requested anonymity. Multiple attempts to seek comment from Tsingshan were unsuccessful.</p><h2>Massive short squeeze</h2><p>Mr Xiang had built up his massive short position in late 2021 and early 2022 partly as a hedge, partly as a bet that a planned jump in Tsingshan&#39;s production this year would drag down prices. But when Russia&#39;s invasion of Ukraine jolted global markets, nickel started climbing - gradually at first, before rocketing 250 per cent in an epic squeeze.</p><p>On the evening of March 8, senior bankers crowded into a room at Tsingshan&#39;s headquarters demanding answers. Others dialed in for video calls from London or Singapore. Of those present, some didn&#39;t leave until early the next morning.</p><p>More On This TopicXiang Guangda, the metals &#39;visionary&#39; who brought nickel market to a standstillNickel trading halted after unprecedented 250% spike amid Russia supply fears</p><p>The crowd that night was so large because Mr Xiang&#39;s position was spread across about 10 banks and brokers - he had been a good client for many of them, including JPMorgan, for years. But after nickel started spiking on March 7, Tsingshan struggled to meet its margin calls. Now he owed each of them hundreds of millions of dollars.</p><p>The LME had eventually intervened to halt trading a couple of hours after nickel hit US$100,000. It also canceled billions of dollars of transactions, bringing the price back to US$48,078, where it closed the previous day, in what amounted to a lifeline for Mr Xiang and Tsingshan.</p><p>To reopen the market, the LME proposed a solution: Mr Xiang should strike a deal with holders of long positions to close out his trade. But a price of around US$50,000 would be more than twice the level at which he had entered his short position, and would mean accepting billions of dollars in losses.</p><p>Mr Xiang, who is in his early 60s, stood firm. From a start making frames for car doors and windows in Wenzhou, eastern China, he&#39;d built Tsingshan into the world&#39;s largest nickel and stainless steel producer, with an empire stretching from mines in remote Indonesian islands to steel mills on China&#39;s east coast. Along the way, he&#39;d acquired a reputation for visionary thinking and a taste for betting big.</p><p>The spike in prices and the trading freeze caused havoc for companies that use nickel, like stainless steel mills and makers of batteries for electric vehicles. Some simply stopped taking new orders. On the LME, dealers were left frantically trying to recoup missed margin calls from clients who couldn&#39;t pay, and at least one had to seek financial support from its parent company.</p><p>Yet with unprecedented chaos rippling through the industry, Mr Xiang - still facing his bankers in the early hours of March 9 - had a key advantage. They were more terrified than he was.</p><p>If he refused to pay, they would have to chase him in courts in Indonesia and China. What&#39;s more, he had executed his nickel trade through a variety of corporate entities - such as the Hong Kong branch of battery unit Ruipu Energy - and it wasn&#39;t clear the banks would even have the right to seize Tsingshan&#39;s most valuable assets.</p><p>JPMorgan, which had the biggest exposure, took the lead. The group included some international players like Standard Chartered Bank and BNP Paribas, but many were Chinese and Singaporean banks that had little experience handling a situation like this.</p><h2>Personal guarantee</h2><p>Mr Xiang told the assembled bankers he had no intention of closing the position anywhere near US$50,000. A few hours later he was delivering the same message to Matthew Chamberlain, chief executive of the LME. Tsingshan was a strong company, he said, and it had the support of the Chinese government. There would be no backing down.</p><p>Instead, he wrote a list of the assets he was willing to put up as collateral: a string of ferronickel plants in Indonesia. But for some of the bankers, that wasn&#39;t enough. They wouldn&#39;t be able to do any due diligence on the Indonesian assets for weeks or months, and even those who worked closely with Tsingshan hadn&#39;t seen the facilities for years because of the pandemic.</p><p>So Mr Xiang made a further concession that was both valuable and, in Chinese business culture, humbling: a personal guarantee. If Tsingshan didn&#39;t pay its debts, the bankers could turf him out of his home. That was what he was willing to offer. Take it or leave it.</p><p>More On This TopicMetal traders reel as nickel chaos recalls market&#39;s darkest daysLondon Metal Exchange CEO calls for more powers to intervene as nickel trading halt continues</p><p>It wasn&#39;t much of a choice. On March 14, a week after the chaos that engulfed the nickel market, Tsingshan announced a deal with its banks under which they agreed not to pursue the company for the billions it owed for a period of time. In exchange, Mr Xiang agreed a series of price levels at which he would reduce his nickel position once prices dropped below about US$30,000.</p><p>When the market reopened two days later, prices moved lower, easing the strain on Mr Xiang and the banks. A brief dip below US$30,000 allowed Tsingshan to cover about 20 per cent of its short position.</p><p>The pressure on the LME was only intensifying, however. The exchange&#39;s regulators launched reviews of its governance and oversight and many hedge funds were still furious at the LME&#39;s decision to cancel trades.Open interest across the exchange&#39;s six main metals slid to the lowest in more than a decade as traders headed for the exit.</p><p>Each month, Tsingshan and its banks reviewed their standstill agreement. After the initial dip, nickel spent long stretches in limbo with prices hovering around US$33,000.</p><p>It was a nervous time. Tsingshan still had a vast short position, meaning it and its banks could still be exposed to large losses if prices started rising again - for example, if sanctions against Russia led to an actual disruption in nickel supplies, which so far they hadn&#39;t.</p><p>Finally, in May, prices tumbled decisively below the key US$30,000 level after China&#39;s lockdowns dented metals market sentiment. Over the following weeks, Tsingshan reduced its position - which in early March had been over 150,000 tons - to just 60,000 tons.</p><p>By this point, prices were below the level at which Tsingshan had stopped being able to pay its margin calls in early March, which meant Mr Xiang no longer owed the banks any money.</p><p>By the end of June Mr Xiang had exited his position entirely with JPMorgan and several other banks, leaving him with a remaining short of less than 20,000 tons.</p><p>People familiar with the matter estimate Tsingshan&#39;s losses on the trade at around US$1 billion. Mr Xiang isn&#39;t concerned. The loss has been roughly offset by the profits of his nickel operations over the same period. The standstill agreement, which Mr Xiang extended from the initial three months, is set to expire in mid-July.</p><p>Now &#39;Big Shot&#39; is moving on with his life, focusing on plans for the future at Tsingshan, which had revenues of US$56 billion last year. His ability to trade on the LME may be reduced, for now at least, but he is still able to trade on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has ambitions to expand, not only in Asia, but also to Africa. And Tsingshan is as powerful as ever in the nickel market: a massive increase in production from his plants in Indonesia is one of the key factors driving prices lower, much as Mr Xiang predicted.</p><p>But while Mr Xiang may be moving on, the LME is still dealing with the fallout. Regulators have pointed to the chaos in nickel as a sign of the risks lurking in commodity markets, and called for greater oversight of the entire sector. Hedge fund Elliot Investment Management and trading firm Jane Street have launched legal action against the LME, seeking nearly US$500 million.</p><p>And the nickel market is still broken, say people involved in it, with both open interest and trading volumes stuck at sharply lower levels as traders step away from using LME prices in their contracts. Jim Lennon, a veteran nickel market-watcher and managing director of Red Door Research, estimates that less than 25 per cent of global nickel output is now being sold on the basis of LME prices, down from 50 per cent before the crisis in March.</p><p>&#34;A lot of the industry now has temporarily disengaged from the LME,&#34; he says. &#34;The market is still functioning, but it&#39;s struggling.&#34;</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tycoon Whose Bet Broke the Nickel Market Walks Away a Billionaire</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTycoon Whose Bet Broke the Nickel Market Walks Away a Billionaire\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-17 09:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/tycoon-whose-bet-broke-the-nickel-market-walks-away-a-billionaire><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) --By 2.08pm Shanghai time on March 8, it was clear that Xiang Guangda's giant bet on a fall in nickel prices was going spectacularly wrong.Futures had just skyrocketed above US$...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/tycoon-whose-bet-broke-the-nickel-market-walks-away-a-billionaire\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JJN":"镍ETN-iPath","NICK.UK":"镍ETF","NIC.AU":"Nickel Industries Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/tycoon-whose-bet-broke-the-nickel-market-walks-away-a-billionaire","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2249540083","content_text":"SINGAPORE (BLOOMBERG) --By 2.08pm Shanghai time on March 8, it was clear that Xiang Guangda's giant bet on a fall in nickel prices was going spectacularly wrong.Futures had just skyrocketed above US$100,000 a ton and his trade was more than US$10 billion underwater. It was threatening not only to bankrupt Mr Xiang's company, but to trigger a Lehman Brothers-like shock through the entire metals industry and possibly topple the London Metal Exchange (LME) itself.But Mr Xiang was calm. Within hours, more than 50 bankers had arrived at his office wanting to hear how he planned to respond to the crisis. He told them simply: \"I'm confident that we will overcome this.\"And he did.Four months on, the nickel price is falling, as Mr Xiang had predicted. The coterie of banks led by JPMorgan Chase & Co that were baying for his blood has been repaid. He has closed out nearly all his short position in nickel, making a loss on the trade of about US$1 billion - a manageable sum given the profits being generated elsewhere in his business empire, say people who know him.Crucially: the man nicknamed 'Big Shot' in Chinese commodities circles is poised to walk away from the fiasco with his multibillion-dollar mining and steelmaking company, Tsingshan Holding Group, intact and even expanding.But while Mr Xiang moves on, others are left dealing with the destruction wrought by the crisis. His miraculous escape was thanks in no small part to the actions of the LME, which controversially intervened to prevent prices from rising and then suspended trading until Mr Xiang had struck a deal with his banks.Those on the other side of the trade, who lost billions, were furious. Months later, the LME is dealing with a raft of investigations and lawsuits, and the nickel market is still reeling.\"Nice to see that @jpmorgan and The Big Shot got out of this whole thing with only scratches,\" Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, said last week in a tweet thick with sarcasm. \"It's just heart warming.\"This account of how Mr Xiang extricated himself from a short squeeze that rocked the global metals markets is based on numerous interviews with people who were involved, all of whom requested anonymity. Multiple attempts to seek comment from Tsingshan were unsuccessful.Massive short squeezeMr Xiang had built up his massive short position in late 2021 and early 2022 partly as a hedge, partly as a bet that a planned jump in Tsingshan's production this year would drag down prices. But when Russia's invasion of Ukraine jolted global markets, nickel started climbing - gradually at first, before rocketing 250 per cent in an epic squeeze.On the evening of March 8, senior bankers crowded into a room at Tsingshan's headquarters demanding answers. Others dialed in for video calls from London or Singapore. Of those present, some didn't leave until early the next morning.More On This TopicXiang Guangda, the metals 'visionary' who brought nickel market to a standstillNickel trading halted after unprecedented 250% spike amid Russia supply fearsThe crowd that night was so large because Mr Xiang's position was spread across about 10 banks and brokers - he had been a good client for many of them, including JPMorgan, for years. But after nickel started spiking on March 7, Tsingshan struggled to meet its margin calls. Now he owed each of them hundreds of millions of dollars.The LME had eventually intervened to halt trading a couple of hours after nickel hit US$100,000. It also canceled billions of dollars of transactions, bringing the price back to US$48,078, where it closed the previous day, in what amounted to a lifeline for Mr Xiang and Tsingshan.To reopen the market, the LME proposed a solution: Mr Xiang should strike a deal with holders of long positions to close out his trade. But a price of around US$50,000 would be more than twice the level at which he had entered his short position, and would mean accepting billions of dollars in losses.Mr Xiang, who is in his early 60s, stood firm. From a start making frames for car doors and windows in Wenzhou, eastern China, he'd built Tsingshan into the world's largest nickel and stainless steel producer, with an empire stretching from mines in remote Indonesian islands to steel mills on China's east coast. Along the way, he'd acquired a reputation for visionary thinking and a taste for betting big.The spike in prices and the trading freeze caused havoc for companies that use nickel, like stainless steel mills and makers of batteries for electric vehicles. Some simply stopped taking new orders. On the LME, dealers were left frantically trying to recoup missed margin calls from clients who couldn't pay, and at least one had to seek financial support from its parent company.Yet with unprecedented chaos rippling through the industry, Mr Xiang - still facing his bankers in the early hours of March 9 - had a key advantage. They were more terrified than he was.If he refused to pay, they would have to chase him in courts in Indonesia and China. What's more, he had executed his nickel trade through a variety of corporate entities - such as the Hong Kong branch of battery unit Ruipu Energy - and it wasn't clear the banks would even have the right to seize Tsingshan's most valuable assets.JPMorgan, which had the biggest exposure, took the lead. The group included some international players like Standard Chartered Bank and BNP Paribas, but many were Chinese and Singaporean banks that had little experience handling a situation like this.Personal guaranteeMr Xiang told the assembled bankers he had no intention of closing the position anywhere near US$50,000. A few hours later he was delivering the same message to Matthew Chamberlain, chief executive of the LME. Tsingshan was a strong company, he said, and it had the support of the Chinese government. There would be no backing down.Instead, he wrote a list of the assets he was willing to put up as collateral: a string of ferronickel plants in Indonesia. But for some of the bankers, that wasn't enough. They wouldn't be able to do any due diligence on the Indonesian assets for weeks or months, and even those who worked closely with Tsingshan hadn't seen the facilities for years because of the pandemic.So Mr Xiang made a further concession that was both valuable and, in Chinese business culture, humbling: a personal guarantee. If Tsingshan didn't pay its debts, the bankers could turf him out of his home. That was what he was willing to offer. Take it or leave it.More On This TopicMetal traders reel as nickel chaos recalls market's darkest daysLondon Metal Exchange CEO calls for more powers to intervene as nickel trading halt continuesIt wasn't much of a choice. On March 14, a week after the chaos that engulfed the nickel market, Tsingshan announced a deal with its banks under which they agreed not to pursue the company for the billions it owed for a period of time. In exchange, Mr Xiang agreed a series of price levels at which he would reduce his nickel position once prices dropped below about US$30,000.When the market reopened two days later, prices moved lower, easing the strain on Mr Xiang and the banks. A brief dip below US$30,000 allowed Tsingshan to cover about 20 per cent of its short position.The pressure on the LME was only intensifying, however. The exchange's regulators launched reviews of its governance and oversight and many hedge funds were still furious at the LME's decision to cancel trades.Open interest across the exchange's six main metals slid to the lowest in more than a decade as traders headed for the exit.Each month, Tsingshan and its banks reviewed their standstill agreement. After the initial dip, nickel spent long stretches in limbo with prices hovering around US$33,000.It was a nervous time. Tsingshan still had a vast short position, meaning it and its banks could still be exposed to large losses if prices started rising again - for example, if sanctions against Russia led to an actual disruption in nickel supplies, which so far they hadn't.Finally, in May, prices tumbled decisively below the key US$30,000 level after China's lockdowns dented metals market sentiment. Over the following weeks, Tsingshan reduced its position - which in early March had been over 150,000 tons - to just 60,000 tons.By this point, prices were below the level at which Tsingshan had stopped being able to pay its margin calls in early March, which meant Mr Xiang no longer owed the banks any money.By the end of June Mr Xiang had exited his position entirely with JPMorgan and several other banks, leaving him with a remaining short of less than 20,000 tons.People familiar with the matter estimate Tsingshan's losses on the trade at around US$1 billion. Mr Xiang isn't concerned. The loss has been roughly offset by the profits of his nickel operations over the same period. The standstill agreement, which Mr Xiang extended from the initial three months, is set to expire in mid-July.Now 'Big Shot' is moving on with his life, focusing on plans for the future at Tsingshan, which had revenues of US$56 billion last year. His ability to trade on the LME may be reduced, for now at least, but he is still able to trade on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has ambitions to expand, not only in Asia, but also to Africa. And Tsingshan is as powerful as ever in the nickel market: a massive increase in production from his plants in Indonesia is one of the key factors driving prices lower, much as Mr Xiang predicted.But while Mr Xiang may be moving on, the LME is still dealing with the fallout. Regulators have pointed to the chaos in nickel as a sign of the risks lurking in commodity markets, and called for greater oversight of the entire sector. Hedge fund Elliot Investment Management and trading firm Jane Street have launched legal action against the LME, seeking nearly US$500 million.And the nickel market is still broken, say people involved in it, with both open interest and trading volumes stuck at sharply lower levels as traders step away from using LME prices in their contracts. Jim Lennon, a veteran nickel market-watcher and managing director of Red Door Research, estimates that less than 25 per cent of global nickel output is now being sold on the basis of LME prices, down from 50 per cent before the crisis in March.\"A lot of the industry now has temporarily disengaged from the LME,\" he says. \"The market is still functioning, but it's struggling.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":23,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916653759,"gmtCreate":1664588916172,"gmtModify":1676537481199,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>perhaps 50","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>perhaps 50","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$perhaps 50","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916653759","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9904113928,"gmtCreate":1660008838066,"gmtModify":1703476858484,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9904113928","repostId":"2258244576","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2258244576","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1660003049,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2258244576?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-09 07:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Little Changed on Fed Policy Fears","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2258244576","media":"Reuters","summary":"* Auto stocks up on Senate approval of bill with EV funding* Nvidia slides as slump in gaming demand","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>* Auto stocks up on Senate approval of bill with EV funding</p><p>* Nvidia slides as slump in gaming demand hits Q2 revenue</p><p>* Dow closes up 0.09%, Nasdaq down 0.1%, S&amp;P 500 0.12%</p><p>Aug 8 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed mostly flat on Monday after blockbuster jobs data last week reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will crack down on inflation, while a revenue warning from chipmaker Nvidia reminded investors of a slowing U.S. economy.</p><p>Stocks retreated from earlier highs as last week&#39;s blowout labor market report was initially seen as a sign the economy could withstand aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed to tame inflation running at four-decade highs.</p><p>Investors now await consumer price data on Wednesday to gauge whether the Fed might ease a bit in its inflation fight and provide better footing for the economy to grow.</p><p>&#34;The CPI data will help to confirm if the Fed&#39;s tightening efforts have been successful in starting to tame inflation or if continued Fed tightening is needed,&#34; said Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 29.07 points, or 0.09%, to 32,832.54, while the S&amp;P 500    lost 5.13 points, or 0.12%, to 4,140.06 and the Nasdaq Composite    dropped 13.10 points, or 0.1%, to 12,644.46.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.01 billion shares.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has bounced back 14% from mid-June lows. But signs of inflation running too hot could cement the Fed&#39;s case for aggressive monetary policy tightening.</p><p>Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise in Troy, Michigan, said the market was due to pull back at some point as traders test the recent rebound.</p><p>&#34;Maybe we can get a little bit higher by year end, but that&#39;s if everything lines up perfectly,&#34; he said, adding that the University of Michigan&#39;s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for August on Friday also will be closely watched.</p><p>&#34;That&#39;s the tug of war between these data sets that tell the story about, &#39;Hey, are we going to turn into a recession or avoid <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>?&#39;&#34;</p><p>U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67.5% chance of a 75-basis-point hike at the Fed&#39;s next meeting in September, up from about 41% before the labor market data beat market expectations.</p><p>The information technology sector fell 0.9% as chipmaker Nvidia Corp slid 6.3% after the company said it expects second-quarter revenue to decline 19% from the prior quarter to about $6.7 billion, due to weakness in gaming.</p><p>The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slid 1.6%, while value stocks rose 0.1% to outpace a 0.4% drop in growth.</p><p>Tesla    rose 0.8% as the U.S. electric-car maker signed contracts worth about $5 billion to buy battery materials from nickel processing companies in Indonesia, according to a CNBC report.</p><p>Shares of U.S. automakers jumped after the U.S. Senate on Sunday passed a $430 billion bill to fight climate change that created a $4,000 tax credit for used electric vehicles and provides billions in funding for their production.</p><p>Rivian Automotive Inc rose 6.78%, Ford Motor Co gained 3.14%, General Motors Co added 4.16% and Lordstown Motors Corp advanced 3.17%.</p><p>Signify Health Inc shot up 11.0% on a media report that CVS Health Corp was looking to buy the health technology company.</p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc dropped 14.2% after the data analytics software company lowered its annual revenue forecast as the timing of some large government contracts remained uncertain.</p><p>Tyson Foods Inc fell 8.4% after missing quarterly profit expectations.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.28-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.67-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted eight new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 104 new highs and 27 new lows.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Little Changed on Fed Policy Fears</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Closes Little Changed on Fed Policy Fears\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-08-09 07:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>* Auto stocks up on Senate approval of bill with EV funding</p><p>* Nvidia slides as slump in gaming demand hits Q2 revenue</p><p>* Dow closes up 0.09%, Nasdaq down 0.1%, S&amp;P 500 0.12%</p><p>Aug 8 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed mostly flat on Monday after blockbuster jobs data last week reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will crack down on inflation, while a revenue warning from chipmaker Nvidia reminded investors of a slowing U.S. economy.</p><p>Stocks retreated from earlier highs as last week&#39;s blowout labor market report was initially seen as a sign the economy could withstand aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed to tame inflation running at four-decade highs.</p><p>Investors now await consumer price data on Wednesday to gauge whether the Fed might ease a bit in its inflation fight and provide better footing for the economy to grow.</p><p>&#34;The CPI data will help to confirm if the Fed&#39;s tightening efforts have been successful in starting to tame inflation or if continued Fed tightening is needed,&#34; said Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 29.07 points, or 0.09%, to 32,832.54, while the S&amp;P 500    lost 5.13 points, or 0.12%, to 4,140.06 and the Nasdaq Composite    dropped 13.10 points, or 0.1%, to 12,644.46.</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.01 billion shares.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 has bounced back 14% from mid-June lows. But signs of inflation running too hot could cement the Fed&#39;s case for aggressive monetary policy tightening.</p><p>Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise in Troy, Michigan, said the market was due to pull back at some point as traders test the recent rebound.</p><p>&#34;Maybe we can get a little bit higher by year end, but that&#39;s if everything lines up perfectly,&#34; he said, adding that the University of Michigan&#39;s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for August on Friday also will be closely watched.</p><p>&#34;That&#39;s the tug of war between these data sets that tell the story about, &#39;Hey, are we going to turn into a recession or avoid <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>?&#39;&#34;</p><p>U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67.5% chance of a 75-basis-point hike at the Fed&#39;s next meeting in September, up from about 41% before the labor market data beat market expectations.</p><p>The information technology sector fell 0.9% as chipmaker Nvidia Corp slid 6.3% after the company said it expects second-quarter revenue to decline 19% from the prior quarter to about $6.7 billion, due to weakness in gaming.</p><p>The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slid 1.6%, while value stocks rose 0.1% to outpace a 0.4% drop in growth.</p><p>Tesla    rose 0.8% as the U.S. electric-car maker signed contracts worth about $5 billion to buy battery materials from nickel processing companies in Indonesia, according to a CNBC report.</p><p>Shares of U.S. automakers jumped after the U.S. Senate on Sunday passed a $430 billion bill to fight climate change that created a $4,000 tax credit for used electric vehicles and provides billions in funding for their production.</p><p>Rivian Automotive Inc rose 6.78%, Ford Motor Co gained 3.14%, General Motors Co added 4.16% and Lordstown Motors Corp advanced 3.17%.</p><p>Signify Health Inc shot up 11.0% on a media report that CVS Health Corp was looking to buy the health technology company.</p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc dropped 14.2% after the data analytics software company lowered its annual revenue forecast as the timing of some large government contracts remained uncertain.</p><p>Tyson Foods Inc fell 8.4% after missing quarterly profit expectations.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.28-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.67-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted eight new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 104 new highs and 27 new lows.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","BK4543":"AI","BK4579":"人工智能","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2258244576","content_text":"* Auto stocks up on Senate approval of bill with EV funding* Nvidia slides as slump in gaming demand hits Q2 revenue* Dow closes up 0.09%, Nasdaq down 0.1%, S&P 500 0.12%Aug 8 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed mostly flat on Monday after blockbuster jobs data last week reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will crack down on inflation, while a revenue warning from chipmaker Nvidia reminded investors of a slowing U.S. economy.Stocks retreated from earlier highs as last week's blowout labor market report was initially seen as a sign the economy could withstand aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed to tame inflation running at four-decade highs.Investors now await consumer price data on Wednesday to gauge whether the Fed might ease a bit in its inflation fight and provide better footing for the economy to grow.\"The CPI data will help to confirm if the Fed's tightening efforts have been successful in starting to tame inflation or if continued Fed tightening is needed,\" said Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management.The Dow Jones Industrial Average    rose 29.07 points, or 0.09%, to 32,832.54, while the S&P 500    lost 5.13 points, or 0.12%, to 4,140.06 and the Nasdaq Composite    dropped 13.10 points, or 0.1%, to 12,644.46.Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.01 billion shares.The S&P 500 has bounced back 14% from mid-June lows. But signs of inflation running too hot could cement the Fed's case for aggressive monetary policy tightening.Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise in Troy, Michigan, said the market was due to pull back at some point as traders test the recent rebound.\"Maybe we can get a little bit higher by year end, but that's if everything lines up perfectly,\" he said, adding that the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey for August on Friday also will be closely watched.\"That's the tug of war between these data sets that tell the story about, 'Hey, are we going to turn into a recession or avoid one?'\"U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67.5% chance of a 75-basis-point hike at the Fed's next meeting in September, up from about 41% before the labor market data beat market expectations.The information technology sector fell 0.9% as chipmaker Nvidia Corp slid 6.3% after the company said it expects second-quarter revenue to decline 19% from the prior quarter to about $6.7 billion, due to weakness in gaming.The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index slid 1.6%, while value stocks rose 0.1% to outpace a 0.4% drop in growth.Tesla    rose 0.8% as the U.S. electric-car maker signed contracts worth about $5 billion to buy battery materials from nickel processing companies in Indonesia, according to a CNBC report.Shares of U.S. automakers jumped after the U.S. Senate on Sunday passed a $430 billion bill to fight climate change that created a $4,000 tax credit for used electric vehicles and provides billions in funding for their production.Rivian Automotive Inc rose 6.78%, Ford Motor Co gained 3.14%, General Motors Co added 4.16% and Lordstown Motors Corp advanced 3.17%.Signify Health Inc shot up 11.0% on a media report that CVS Health Corp was looking to buy the health technology company.Palantir Technologies Inc dropped 14.2% after the data analytics software company lowered its annual revenue forecast as the timing of some large government contracts remained uncertain.Tyson Foods Inc fell 8.4% after missing quarterly profit expectations.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.28-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.67-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted eight new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 104 new highs and 27 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986574350,"gmtCreate":1667000462970,"gmtModify":1676537845971,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why not target&nbsp;","listText":"Why not target&nbsp;","text":"Why not target","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986574350","repostId":"2278010460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278010460","pubTimestamp":1666970718,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2278010460?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-28 23:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Better Buy: Walmart or Costco?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278010460","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Both sales models align well with the current spending environment.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Recession-proof stocks can be a safe haven for investors during times of economic turmoil. When the economy slows, consumers look to stretch their dollars, often trading down from name brands and even choosing different retailers to buy from instead.</p><p>Budget-friendly retailers <b>Walmart</b> and <b>Costco Wholesale</b> have business models that benefit from these recent shopping trends. Let&#39;s look at which consumer staples stock makes a better buy in today&#39;s market.</p><h2><b>Walmart: For those seeking great value</b></h2><p>Through pandemic lockdowns, recession fears, and persistent inflation, Walmart&#39;s defensive business model has remained stable, although the company faces its fair share of challenges. As the current economy reshapes consumer behavior, Walmart&#39;s discount prices have converted higher-income shoppers. The numbers don&#39;t lie, and these more affluent shoppers boosted second-quarter sales substantially.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1dbaf940143a66accb7d59ccd150390f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Walmart.</span></p><p>Seeking food and essentials at lower prices, higher-earning consumers (those with annual household incomes of $100,000 or more) accounted for approximately 75% of Walmart&#39;s second-quarter market share gains. In-store sales saw a 6.5% increase and online sales jumped 12% year over year.</p><p>Despite sales gains in food and essentials, Walmart saw sales of casual clothing, TVs, and other electronics dwindle in the quarter. Now sitting on a surplus of merchandise, the retailer is making efforts to reduce that inventory -- primarily with markdowns -- that have taken a toll on profit margins. Recognizing the shift in consumer spending this summer, it lowered its profit forecast for the full year.</p><p>Undeterred by challenges, management now looks to boost business with its subscription service, Walmart+, which offers such perks as unlimited free delivery from stores as well as fuel discounts. CEO Doug McMillon believes is an integral part of the company&#39;s long-term success.</p><p>Meanwhile, Walmart is making progress on reducing its surplus inventory, and aims to continue snatching market share in the grocery department.</p><h2><b>Costco: Lasting success</b></h2><p>With over 110 million Costco cardholders worldwide, the chain retains some of the most loyal bargain hunters out there. The warehouse retailer earned $4.2 billion in fiscal 2022 from membership fees alone, helping to keep prices down and lure more members. Also worth considering: that $4.2 billion accounted for over 70% of Costco&#39;s annual profits.</p><p>Recently closing out fiscal 2022, Costco continues to perform well in the current market. The wholesaler enjoyed a 16% jump in net sales for the year, totaling more than $222 billion, compared to last year&#39;s $192 billion. And last quarter&#39;s sales increased more than 15% year over year.</p><p>One key advantage Costco holds over Walmart is its low rate of theft. A tight control on shoplifting keeps Costco&#39;s shrinkage to 0.12% of sales. In comparison, Walmart loses an average of $3 billion a year from theft. Other ways Costco passes savings on to customers include strategic vendor agreements and a near-zero advertising budget.</p><p>Considering its stock has more than quintupled over the last decade, Costco has certainly rewarded long-term shareholders. And although investing legend Warren Buffett sold his stake in the company a couple of years ago, billionaire Charlie Munger (Buffett&#39;s right-hand man) still holds his shares -- with no intentions of selling. Time will tell whether Buffett or Munger has the right instincts.</p><h2><b>Which is the better buy?</b></h2><p>To help gauge whether Walmart or Costco is the better buy, let&#39;s look at current market capitalizations, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields.</p><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><th>Metric</th><th>Walmart</th><th>Costco</th></tr><tr><td>Market capitalization</td><td>$378 billion</td><td>$220 billion</td></tr><tr><td>Price-to-earnings ratio</td><td>27.8</td><td>37.8</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend yield</td><td>1.61%</td><td>0.72%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: E*Trade.</p><p>A lower price-to-earnings ratio and a higher dividend yield make Walmart today&#39;s winner. But for a long-term investment, you really can&#39;t go wrong with either of these retail titans, which are both well-positioned for today&#39;s consumers.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Better Buy: Walmart or Costco?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBetter Buy: Walmart or Costco?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-28 23:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/better-buy-walmart-or-costco/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Recession-proof stocks can be a safe haven for investors during times of economic turmoil. When the economy slows, consumers look to stretch their dollars, often trading down from name brands and even...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/better-buy-walmart-or-costco/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","WMT":"沃尔玛"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/28/better-buy-walmart-or-costco/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278010460","content_text":"Recession-proof stocks can be a safe haven for investors during times of economic turmoil. When the economy slows, consumers look to stretch their dollars, often trading down from name brands and even choosing different retailers to buy from instead.Budget-friendly retailers Walmart and Costco Wholesale have business models that benefit from these recent shopping trends. Let's look at which consumer staples stock makes a better buy in today's market.Walmart: For those seeking great valueThrough pandemic lockdowns, recession fears, and persistent inflation, Walmart's defensive business model has remained stable, although the company faces its fair share of challenges. As the current economy reshapes consumer behavior, Walmart's discount prices have converted higher-income shoppers. The numbers don't lie, and these more affluent shoppers boosted second-quarter sales substantially.Image source: Walmart.Seeking food and essentials at lower prices, higher-earning consumers (those with annual household incomes of $100,000 or more) accounted for approximately 75% of Walmart's second-quarter market share gains. In-store sales saw a 6.5% increase and online sales jumped 12% year over year.Despite sales gains in food and essentials, Walmart saw sales of casual clothing, TVs, and other electronics dwindle in the quarter. Now sitting on a surplus of merchandise, the retailer is making efforts to reduce that inventory -- primarily with markdowns -- that have taken a toll on profit margins. Recognizing the shift in consumer spending this summer, it lowered its profit forecast for the full year.Undeterred by challenges, management now looks to boost business with its subscription service, Walmart+, which offers such perks as unlimited free delivery from stores as well as fuel discounts. CEO Doug McMillon believes is an integral part of the company's long-term success.Meanwhile, Walmart is making progress on reducing its surplus inventory, and aims to continue snatching market share in the grocery department.Costco: Lasting successWith over 110 million Costco cardholders worldwide, the chain retains some of the most loyal bargain hunters out there. The warehouse retailer earned $4.2 billion in fiscal 2022 from membership fees alone, helping to keep prices down and lure more members. Also worth considering: that $4.2 billion accounted for over 70% of Costco's annual profits.Recently closing out fiscal 2022, Costco continues to perform well in the current market. The wholesaler enjoyed a 16% jump in net sales for the year, totaling more than $222 billion, compared to last year's $192 billion. And last quarter's sales increased more than 15% year over year.One key advantage Costco holds over Walmart is its low rate of theft. A tight control on shoplifting keeps Costco's shrinkage to 0.12% of sales. In comparison, Walmart loses an average of $3 billion a year from theft. Other ways Costco passes savings on to customers include strategic vendor agreements and a near-zero advertising budget.Considering its stock has more than quintupled over the last decade, Costco has certainly rewarded long-term shareholders. And although investing legend Warren Buffett sold his stake in the company a couple of years ago, billionaire Charlie Munger (Buffett's right-hand man) still holds his shares -- with no intentions of selling. Time will tell whether Buffett or Munger has the right instincts.Which is the better buy?To help gauge whether Walmart or Costco is the better buy, let's look at current market capitalizations, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields.MetricWalmartCostcoMarket capitalization$378 billion$220 billionPrice-to-earnings ratio27.837.8Dividend yield1.61%0.72%Data source: E*Trade.A lower price-to-earnings ratio and a higher dividend yield make Walmart today's winner. But for a long-term investment, you really can't go wrong with either of these retail titans, which are both well-positioned for today's consumers.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9965649962,"gmtCreate":1669948868357,"gmtModify":1676538276309,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope their Trucks are more reliable than cars","listText":"Hope their Trucks are more reliable than cars","text":"Hope their Trucks are more reliable than cars","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965649962","repostId":"2288588938","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915388665,"gmtCreate":1664958221258,"gmtModify":1676537535908,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915388665","repostId":"2273327868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273327868","pubTimestamp":1664959185,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2273327868?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-05 16:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273327868","media":"Barron's","summary":"For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything b","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.</p><p>Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all up to bat. They&#39;ll be followed the next week by even more financials, including Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS).</p><p>While their results may come in close succession, their stock performances may diverge.</p><p>Banks are grabbing headlines again, albeit in the worst way, amid mounting concerns about Swiss giant Credit Suisse <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">$(CS)$</a>. Barron&#39;s argued that Credit Suisse was unlikely to go the way of Lehman Brothers, and that as a whole U.S. banks had less to worry about in terms of systematic contagion from the firm&#39;s woes.</p><p>Nonetheless, it would be glib to therefore conclude they don&#39;t face their own gauntlet this earnings season.</p><p>Credit Suisse&#39;s problems may be its own, but a recession in Europe, now seeming all but inevitable, would have reverberations far beyond the Continent. Commentators are still debating whether or not the U.S. can sidestep the same fate, but even if it does, fears of a recession typically suppress bank stocks -- and plenty of others.</p><p>Indeed higher interest rates, which many fear could tip the economic scales, cut both ways for banks. Initial public offerings are down, as are the value of mergers, leading to a return of layoffs.</p><p>Still, that&#39;s not to say investors should avoid the sector entirely, particularly given low valuations and what may be overly pessimistic profit outlooks.</p><p>Barron&#39;s previously argued that J.P. Morgan was oversold, and Citigroup&#39;s Keith Horowitz argues much the same Tuesday. He reiterated a Buy rating and $135 price target on J.P. Morgan stock while opening a positive catalyst watch on the shares ahead of earnings, as he believes a &#34;earnings beat on the top line will lead to upward revisions on full year guidance.&#34;</p><p>He sees banks in general as attractively priced for longer-term investors, given low valuations and the tendency of the market to overestimate the pressure on banks during downturns -- particularly as credit risk comes at a time when banks will see some benefit from a nonzero rate environment. While regulatory risk remains a worry, given changeable capital requirements for banks, he argues that&#39;s not an insurmountable obstacle.</p><p>Horowitz upgraded Bank of New York Mellon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">$(BK)$</a> stock to Buy from Neutral, citing its limited credit risk, but also argues investors could do well with pair trades this earnings season. He notes that Bank of New York Mellon trades at the highest implied cost of equity capital (COE) in his coverage universe, while Northern Trust <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRS\">$(NTRS)$</a> trades at the lowest; the latter also deserves some caution, he writes, given greater risk for downward revisions given the market-sensitive nature of some of its revenue.</p><p>In another pair trade, he warns that Truist Financial (TFC) looks vulnerable to negative earnings revisions, due to net interest income (NII) and expenses, along with higher credit risk, while Wells Fargo looks better positioned.</p><p>Goldman Sachs&#39; Richard Ramsden agrees, as he upgraded Wells Fargo stock to Buy from Neutral on Monday, bumping his price target up by $2 to $48. He, too, believes that the company has less credit risk in a potential recession, given less exposure to credit cards, and that its loan growth can fuel further NII. In addition, he highlights its &#34;best-in-class revenue upside&#34; that could drive an &#34;underappreciated earnings growth story.&#34;</p><p>By contrast, he downgraded Citigroup stock to Neutral from Buy, while lowering his target to $47 from $54. Ramsden&#39;s base case isn&#39;t for a recession, but should it come to that, Citi could have to limit its balance sheet growth to fund more reserves, while it also skews more heavily toward credit cards. Even absent that, he argues that Citi, despite meaningful progress, will still have to build more capital to achieve its higher common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) ratio, leaving less room for earnings upside.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that Wells Fargo has seen relatively minimal downward earnings revisions in recent months, according to FactSet. The stock has had more positive momentum in the past 90 days, holding up better than its financial peers and the broader market.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 16:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","USB":"美国合众银行","BAC":"美国银行","MS":"摩根士丹利","PNC":"PNC金融","C":"花旗","GS":"高盛","WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273327868","content_text":"For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all up to bat. They'll be followed the next week by even more financials, including Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS).While their results may come in close succession, their stock performances may diverge.Banks are grabbing headlines again, albeit in the worst way, amid mounting concerns about Swiss giant Credit Suisse $(CS)$. Barron's argued that Credit Suisse was unlikely to go the way of Lehman Brothers, and that as a whole U.S. banks had less to worry about in terms of systematic contagion from the firm's woes.Nonetheless, it would be glib to therefore conclude they don't face their own gauntlet this earnings season.Credit Suisse's problems may be its own, but a recession in Europe, now seeming all but inevitable, would have reverberations far beyond the Continent. Commentators are still debating whether or not the U.S. can sidestep the same fate, but even if it does, fears of a recession typically suppress bank stocks -- and plenty of others.Indeed higher interest rates, which many fear could tip the economic scales, cut both ways for banks. Initial public offerings are down, as are the value of mergers, leading to a return of layoffs.Still, that's not to say investors should avoid the sector entirely, particularly given low valuations and what may be overly pessimistic profit outlooks.Barron's previously argued that J.P. Morgan was oversold, and Citigroup's Keith Horowitz argues much the same Tuesday. He reiterated a Buy rating and $135 price target on J.P. Morgan stock while opening a positive catalyst watch on the shares ahead of earnings, as he believes a \"earnings beat on the top line will lead to upward revisions on full year guidance.\"He sees banks in general as attractively priced for longer-term investors, given low valuations and the tendency of the market to overestimate the pressure on banks during downturns -- particularly as credit risk comes at a time when banks will see some benefit from a nonzero rate environment. While regulatory risk remains a worry, given changeable capital requirements for banks, he argues that's not an insurmountable obstacle.Horowitz upgraded Bank of New York Mellon $(BK)$ stock to Buy from Neutral, citing its limited credit risk, but also argues investors could do well with pair trades this earnings season. He notes that Bank of New York Mellon trades at the highest implied cost of equity capital (COE) in his coverage universe, while Northern Trust $(NTRS)$ trades at the lowest; the latter also deserves some caution, he writes, given greater risk for downward revisions given the market-sensitive nature of some of its revenue.In another pair trade, he warns that Truist Financial (TFC) looks vulnerable to negative earnings revisions, due to net interest income (NII) and expenses, along with higher credit risk, while Wells Fargo looks better positioned.Goldman Sachs' Richard Ramsden agrees, as he upgraded Wells Fargo stock to Buy from Neutral on Monday, bumping his price target up by $2 to $48. He, too, believes that the company has less credit risk in a potential recession, given less exposure to credit cards, and that its loan growth can fuel further NII. In addition, he highlights its \"best-in-class revenue upside\" that could drive an \"underappreciated earnings growth story.\"By contrast, he downgraded Citigroup stock to Neutral from Buy, while lowering his target to $47 from $54. Ramsden's base case isn't for a recession, but should it come to that, Citi could have to limit its balance sheet growth to fund more reserves, while it also skews more heavily toward credit cards. Even absent that, he argues that Citi, despite meaningful progress, will still have to build more capital to achieve its higher common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) ratio, leaving less room for earnings upside.It's also worth noting that Wells Fargo has seen relatively minimal downward earnings revisions in recent months, according to FactSet. The stock has had more positive momentum in the past 90 days, holding up better than its financial peers and the broader market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":214,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9958803399,"gmtCreate":1673670772812,"gmtModify":1676538873578,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shorted tsla and paid for it..&nbsp;","listText":"Shorted tsla and paid for it..&nbsp;","text":"Shorted tsla and paid for it..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9958803399","repostId":"1152054962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152054962","pubTimestamp":1673667194,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152054962?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-14 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152054962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price c","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla, Inc.&#39;s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.</li><li>The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.</li><li>Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.</li></ul><p><b>Everything’s Gotta Go</b></p><p>Yesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.</p><p>The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.</p><p>The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (&#34;EVs&#34;) for their corporate stables at zero discount.)</p><p>It&#39;s not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.</p><p><b>The China Story</b></p><p>China has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.</p><p>One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.</p><p><b>The Margins. Always the Margins.</b></p><p>Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c914efc493b0dbd6b7ae597b905d0806\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F &amp; GM(Koyfin)</p><p>We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.</p><p>The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.</p><p>Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.</p><p><b>What To Do?</b></p><p>Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.</p><p>Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.</p><p>This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.</p><p><b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p>The price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-14 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152054962","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.Everything’s Gotta GoYesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (\"EVs\") for their corporate stables at zero discount.)It's not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.The China StoryChina has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.The Margins. Always the Margins.Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F & GM(Koyfin)We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.What To Do?Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.The Bottom LineThe price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968711175,"gmtCreate":1669331505298,"gmtModify":1676538182832,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"10,000 eth worth 1.2m sell me some at double your cost please","listText":"10,000 eth worth 1.2m sell me some at double your cost please","text":"10,000 eth worth 1.2m sell me some at double your cost please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968711175","repostId":"1191855687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191855687","pubTimestamp":1669331225,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191855687?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-25 07:07","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Ethereum Transactions Are At 4-Month Low, But Whales Keep Accumulating","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191855687","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Ethereum — the cryptocurrency that spawned the Web 3.0 industry — is seeing less activity and tradin","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Ethereum</b> — the cryptocurrency that spawned the Web 3.0 industry — is seeing less activity and trading interest, but big holders apparently still believe in the protocol&#39;s future.</p><p><b>What Happened:</b> Open interest in Ethereum futures open interest has taken a sharp hit at the beginning of the month when it dropped from October&#39;s average of about $7 billion down to a low of $4 billion in mid-November before more recently settling at just under $4.5 billion, according to data gathered from Glassnode&#39;s crypto analytics tool suite.</p><p>Concurrently, the seven-day average of the number of transactions processed by Ethereum&#39;s blockchain reached a four-month low of 39,580 earlier Thursday, according to another Glassnodechart.</p><p>Despite those rather bearish signs, the biggest of Ethereum holders continue accumulating and growing their ranks. Glassnodedata reveals the number of Ethereum addresses holding at least 10,000 ETH — worth nearly $1.2 million as of press time — is at its one-month high of 1,193.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ethereum Transactions Are At 4-Month Low, But Whales Keep Accumulating</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEthereum Transactions Are At 4-Month Low, But Whales Keep Accumulating\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-25 07:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/11/29851416/ethereum-transactions-are-at-4-month-low-but-whales-keep-accumulating><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ethereum — the cryptocurrency that spawned the Web 3.0 industry — is seeing less activity and trading interest, but big holders apparently still believe in the protocol's future.What Happened: Open ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/11/29851416/ethereum-transactions-are-at-4-month-low-but-whales-keep-accumulating\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/22/11/29851416/ethereum-transactions-are-at-4-month-low-but-whales-keep-accumulating","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191855687","content_text":"Ethereum — the cryptocurrency that spawned the Web 3.0 industry — is seeing less activity and trading interest, but big holders apparently still believe in the protocol's future.What Happened: Open interest in Ethereum futures open interest has taken a sharp hit at the beginning of the month when it dropped from October's average of about $7 billion down to a low of $4 billion in mid-November before more recently settling at just under $4.5 billion, according to data gathered from Glassnode's crypto analytics tool suite.Concurrently, the seven-day average of the number of transactions processed by Ethereum's blockchain reached a four-month low of 39,580 earlier Thursday, according to another Glassnodechart.Despite those rather bearish signs, the biggest of Ethereum holders continue accumulating and growing their ranks. Glassnodedata reveals the number of Ethereum addresses holding at least 10,000 ETH — worth nearly $1.2 million as of press time — is at its one-month high of 1,193.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9930151687,"gmtCreate":1661916224051,"gmtModify":1676536603687,"author":{"id":"3582246479396497","authorId":"3582246479396497","name":"paul55555","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it get warmer or colder?&nbsp;","listText":"Will it get warmer or colder?&nbsp;","text":"Will it get warmer or colder?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9930151687","repostId":"1193958791","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1193958791","pubTimestamp":1661915216,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193958791?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-31 11:06","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin’s Crypto Winter Morphs Into a Sleepy Summer","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193958791","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Doge Days of SummerThere’s that number again: $20,000. After its worst ever drawdown in market-cap t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Doge Days of Summer</b></p><p>There’s that number again: $20,000. After its worst ever drawdown in market-cap terms from a high last November to an 18-month low in June, Bitcoin has done … well, not much of anything. A sleepy summer has seen the largest and oldest cryptocurrency fluctuate aimlessly, trading roughly between $19,000 and $25,000 and frequently landing back in the vicinity of that round-number level of $20,000.</p><p>In a glass-half-full reading of the price action, this could be seen as good news. At least the bleeding has stopped, and the trading range corresponds with a change of tone in crypto news flow. The headlines are way less hair-on-fire than they were in the spring as the failure of the TerraUSD stablecoin project infected various corners of the market. Crypto reporters are back to writing about stuff like new leveraged exchange-traded funds targeting the industry’s stocks, Bitcoin and Ether futures denominated in euros, or how Eminem and Snoop Dogg performed as their Bored Ape avatars at the MTV awards.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b2f4d98b450dd62556f15d2a32e0fa\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"626\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>It could be interpreted that this is a support level and there are buyers ready to act when Bitcoin dips noticeably below $20K. Positioning data from the CFTC suggest large speculators were almost as net long as they’ve ever been through Aug. 23, both in regular and micro Bitcoin futures. (Importantly, that data doesn’t capture the reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech on Friday, which sent risk assets reeling, nor does it capture the wide world of futures speculation that exists outside of contracts under the CFTC’s purview.)</p><p>And the glass-half-empty reading? Well, it’s hard not to wonder if $20,000 may be just a rest stop for Bitcoin on the road to irrelevance. For an asset that’s posted average moves of more than 800% annually, a tight trading range may kill off its most attractive attribute. It’s hard to imagine the perfect conditions that triggered its past parabolic moves – such as tame inflation, barely-there interest rates and voracious appetites for risky assets – returning anytime in the near future. Powell has more or lesspromised that they won’t.</p><p><b>Charting it out</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a7244d201f4361e0fb0f42db5a4c2b\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"558\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>Counting it out</b></p><h2><b>$875 billion</b></h2><p>While the market value of all cryptocurrencies approached $3 trillion last fall, the value based on what they actually fetched at their most recent transaction was closer to $875 billion.</p><p><b>Hearing them out</b></p><p>“If people say this is a crypto winter, then 2018 was the crypto ice age ... Now is the time to deploy more capital, not less.”</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin’s Crypto Winter Morphs Into a Sleepy Summer</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin’s Crypto Winter Morphs Into a Sleepy Summer\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-31 11:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-08-30/bitcoin-s-crypto-winter-morphs-into-a-sleepy-summer><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Doge Days of SummerThere’s that number again: $20,000. After its worst ever drawdown in market-cap terms from a high last November to an 18-month low in June, Bitcoin has done … well, not much of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-08-30/bitcoin-s-crypto-winter-morphs-into-a-sleepy-summer\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-08-30/bitcoin-s-crypto-winter-morphs-into-a-sleepy-summer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193958791","content_text":"Doge Days of SummerThere’s that number again: $20,000. After its worst ever drawdown in market-cap terms from a high last November to an 18-month low in June, Bitcoin has done … well, not much of anything. A sleepy summer has seen the largest and oldest cryptocurrency fluctuate aimlessly, trading roughly between $19,000 and $25,000 and frequently landing back in the vicinity of that round-number level of $20,000.In a glass-half-full reading of the price action, this could be seen as good news. At least the bleeding has stopped, and the trading range corresponds with a change of tone in crypto news flow. The headlines are way less hair-on-fire than they were in the spring as the failure of the TerraUSD stablecoin project infected various corners of the market. Crypto reporters are back to writing about stuff like new leveraged exchange-traded funds targeting the industry’s stocks, Bitcoin and Ether futures denominated in euros, or how Eminem and Snoop Dogg performed as their Bored Ape avatars at the MTV awards.It could be interpreted that this is a support level and there are buyers ready to act when Bitcoin dips noticeably below $20K. Positioning data from the CFTC suggest large speculators were almost as net long as they’ve ever been through Aug. 23, both in regular and micro Bitcoin futures. (Importantly, that data doesn’t capture the reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech on Friday, which sent risk assets reeling, nor does it capture the wide world of futures speculation that exists outside of contracts under the CFTC’s purview.)And the glass-half-empty reading? Well, it’s hard not to wonder if $20,000 may be just a rest stop for Bitcoin on the road to irrelevance. For an asset that’s posted average moves of more than 800% annually, a tight trading range may kill off its most attractive attribute. It’s hard to imagine the perfect conditions that triggered its past parabolic moves – such as tame inflation, barely-there interest rates and voracious appetites for risky assets – returning anytime in the near future. Powell has more or lesspromised that they won’t.Charting it outCounting it out$875 billionWhile the market value of all cryptocurrencies approached $3 trillion last fall, the value based on what they actually fetched at their most recent transaction was closer to $875 billion.Hearing them out“If people say this is a crypto winter, then 2018 was the crypto ice age ... Now is the time to deploy more capital, not less.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}