Kelvin 梁
Kelvin 梁
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The 2026-12-09 after-market earnings release could change the discount, but the more likely base case is that it only narrows materially if Adobe delivers a clear re-acceleration signal in AI monetisation and raises its forward outlook —a routine EPS/revenue beat alone may not be enough. Adobe (ADBE) watchlist closed at US$246.14 on 2026-11-04 , 32.14% below its 52-week high of US$362.71 , and sits at the 32.46th percentile of its 52-week range. The market is therefore pricing in meaningful uncertainty, not simply weak reported results. What December expectations require Consensus for fiscal 2026Q4 is US$6.829bn revenue and US$6.329 EPS , implying 11.78% and 17.33% year-on-year growth, respectively. That EPS expectation is 3.25% above 2026Q3’s US$6.13 actual EPS. The key question
@Bunifa Latif:$Adobe(ADBE)$   Key Financials & Valuation Metrics • Stock Price: ~US$246.07 (recent snapshot) • Market Capitalization: ~US$95.9B – US$100.6B • Trailing / Forward P/E Ratio: Trailing P/E ~13.7x; Forward P/E ~9.3x to 11.5x (down significantly from historical averages due to growth slowdown fears) • Revenue (TTM): US$25.97B (Fiscal 2025 revenue reached US$23.77B, up 10.53% YoY) • Net Income (TTM): US$7.28B (Fiscal 2025 net income reached US$7.13B, up 28.24% YoY) • Earnings Per Share (EPS): US$17.92 • 52-Week Range: US$190.12 – US$370.86 Bull Case (Why Investors See Value) • Strong Profitability & Cash Flow: Adobe maintains high gross profit margins (~89%) and strong operating margins, backed by an entrench
Conditional view: RKLB strangles look expensive in absolute terms, but not clearly “overpriced” versus their own recent volatility history. The important distinction is that the 30-day IV of 89.27% is high, yet its IV percentile is only 33.47% —so this is not near the top of its recent IV range. Rocket Lab (RKLB) watchlist closed at US$54.43 on 2026-11-04 , up 4.53% . Volatility premium: 30-day IV is 1.24× historical volatility , meaning implied volatility is pricing a 24% premium to the historical-volatility reference. That makes long premium less forgiving if the post-launch move fades and realized volatility normalizes. But a major event remains: RKLB is scheduled to report 2026Q3 earnings after the close on 2026-11-09 . That is inside the 30-day window, so some elevated IV is rat
@Jake_Wujastyk:INTC, HOOD, SOFI, RKLB& ASTS Suffered the Great Pain
$ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.(ZIM)$   For 2024, the main risk for ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) watchlist was that its earnings recovery depended heavily on an unusually supportive—but potentially temporary—container-shipping environment. Freight-rate reversal / Red Sea normalization — the largest riskZIM benefited from Red Sea diversions, which tightened effective vessel capacity and lifted spot rates. Its 2024Q2 average freight rate rose to US$1,674 per TEU , up 40% quarter-on-quarter , and the company had meaningful exposure to the spot market. A normalization of Suez/Red Sea routes could release capacity back into the market and pressure rates quickly. Xueqiu Xueqiu Structural oversuppl
$Occidental(OXY)$ Near-term, yes: the signal set points to a pullback/reversal of OXY’s late-October upswing, not yet a confirmed reversal of its broader multi-month uptrend. Occidental (OXY) watchlist closed at US$60.43 on 2026-11-04 , down 3.67% over five trading days . It is 6.97% below its 2026-10-23 three-month intraday high of US$64.96 (calculated), so momentum has clearly deteriorated. MACD: On 2026-11-03, MACD’s DIF was 0.75 , below its signal/DEA at 1.02 , with the histogram at -0.53 . That bearish crossover confirms that the prior rally’s momentum has rolled over. However, both lines remain above zero, which is more consistent with weakening positive momentum than an established medium-term downtrend. RSI6: The 33.79 reading on 2026
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) watchlist put hedges are expensive relative to recent history. The 30-day IV is 21.44% , at the 84.06th percentile , and IV is 1.94× the historical-volatility reference. That means buyers are paying a substantial volatility premium for protection rather than simply paying for expected realized moves. Using the 2026-12-04 expiry—about 30 days out—with SPY at US$754.35 : Put strike Moneyness vs. spot Bid–ask Mark premium Approx. cost per 100-share contract Premium as % of SPY spot Breakeven at expiry 750 put 99.42% US$11.84–11.93 US$11.89 ~US$1,189 1.58% US$738.12 730 put 96.77% US$6.88–6.92 US$6.89 ~US$689 0.91% US$723.10 700 put 92.80% US$3.35–3.38 US$3.36 ~US$336 0.45% US$696
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 08:24
DCAI matters more for Intel’s growth narrative and re-rating potential; CCG still matters more for the current revenue base and near-term stability. For Intel (INTC) watchlist , the Q3 print makes DCAI the segment to watch most closely, but CCG cannot be dismissed because it remains larger in absolute revenue. 2026Q3 segment Revenue YoY QoQ vs. 2026Q2 Share of total reported revenue DCAI $7.32bn +77.8% +16.9% 44.3% CCG $8.10bn -5.1% -8.8% 49.0% Why DCAI is more important now DCAI added about $1.06bn sequential revenue , while CCG declined about $780m . That makes DCAI the clearest source of Intel’s underlying momentum: total revenue rose only 2.4% QoQ to $16.51bn because DCAI’s strength was partly offset by CCG. DCAI is now 90.4% of CCG’s revenue , an unusually narrow gap versus
@daz999999999:$Intel(INTC)$   Market Recap Intel closed at $59.97 on November 3, 2026, down -8.80%, after an intraday range of $59.40 to $65.72. The stock now sits roughly 58% below its 52-week high of $142.35 and just above its 52-week low of $32.89. The sharp decline follows disappointing Q4 guidance that triggered one of the worst selloffs in the company's history, with market capitalization shrinking toward $318 billion. 🚀 Key Drivers Disappointing Guidance: Q4 revenue guidance of $15.0–$16.0 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.25 came in well below consensus, fueling a violent post-earnings repricing. PC Segment Weakness: PC chip sales, roughly half of Q3 revenue, are projected to decline more than 20% sequentially in Q4, ac
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 08:23
Conclusion: recent MSFT bulk orders do not give a clean bearish signal after earnings. They show elevated demand for downside protection and upside call selling, but the largest most recent grouped call trade appears to be a defined-risk call butterfly , which is more consistent with a range-bound/modestly bullish view than a directional bearish bet. Microsoft (MSFT) watchlist closed at US$507.12 on 2026-11-03 , down 4.56% from the US$531.33 close immediately before the latest earnings release. The stock was also down 2.83% on the day, so the market has clearly remained cautious after the report. What the bulk orders say Most recent major sequence — 2026-11-02, expiring 2026-11-06:Bought 1,500 calls at the 490 strike; sold 3,000 calls at 545; bought 1,500 calls at 575. All printed
@daz999999999:$Microsoft(MSFT)$   $Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$   Microsoft and Lumen Technologies are expanding their co-selling collaboration to offer Lumen's suite of cloud-networking and application-connectivity capabilities to Microsoft's Azure. The move expands how customers can access and use Lumen capabilities through Microsoft's cloud and artificial-intelligence ecosystem, the companies said Monday. With the offering, Azure customers will get access to Lumen's network and on-demand control capabilities for the simplified connectivity and resilient network foundation needed to power AI workloads, the companies said.
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 08:20
$Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$  Zeta Global Holdings (ZETA) watchlist — view: constructive fundamentals, but near-term earnings risk is high ZETA closed at US$30.52 on 2026-11-03 , down 2.09% on the day. My primary view is cautiously constructive over a multi-quarter horizon : revenue growth, cash generation and the transition toward profitability are strengthening. However, the shares are approaching a key earnings event while short- and medium-term price trends remain weak. Why the fundamental case is improving Growth accelerated: 2026H1 revenue was US$839.1m , up 46.47% YoY . In 2026Q2, revenue reached US$442.8m , up 43.55% YoY . Profitability inflected positive: 2026Q2 net income was US$8.2m , versus a loss in 2025Q2; operating income
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 07:18
$Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B) watchlist looks short-term extended, but not yet technically broken. The signal is “overbought near a breakout,” rather than a confirmed exhaustion reversal. Momentum is hot: RSI(6) was 79.25 on 2026-11-02; RSI(12) was 75.73 and RSI(24) 70.00 . All are in traditionally overbought territory. The MACD remains bullish (DIF 10.14 above DEA 8.93 ), though its histogram of 2.42 is well below the October peak, indicating momentum has cooled from its fastest rate of acceleration. Price is extended from its trend base: at US$556.11 on 2026-11-03, BRK.B was 2.08% above its 5-day MA and 4.60% above its 20-day MA —about 3.44× the 20-day ATR above that 20-day average. That is a meaningful sh
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 07:18
$Occidental(OXY)$ Near-term upside looks constrained before $65: for Occidental Petroleum (OXY) watchlist , the nearer and stronger options-derived resistance is actually $64 , not $65. From the latest regular-session price of $60.72 on 2026-11-03 , that leaves $3.28, or 5.40% , to $64; the full move to $65 would be $4.28, or 7.05% . For the 2026-11-06 weekly expiry : $64 is the largest call-GEX wall and has 9,278 call contracts open— 35.76% of total call OI for that expiry. $65 has the most call open interest at 11,759 contracts — 45.32% of total call OI—but its gamma exposure is somewhat below the $64 strike. Net gamma is positive and OXY is above its $59.33 zero-gamma level. That normally favours dealer hedging that dampens moves, making a
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 07:18
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The evidence supports a risk-off interpretation , but I could not independently verify the October ISM release or confirm that it was the sole catalyst for the selloff. The market-price pattern shows that SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) watchlist was already technically vulnerable before the latest move. Macro transmission: A weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing reading typically raises concern that industrial activity, corporate revenue growth, and cyclical earnings may soften. That can lead investors to reduce exposure to economically sensitive equities and to reprice broad-market earnings expectations. Why the reaction extended: SPY had already fallen from $774.44 on 2026-10-21 to $752.10 in the latest
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 07:18
$Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF(SCHG)$ Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF (SCHG) watchlist is a large-cap U.S. growth equity ETF . My read is constructive for long-term growth exposure, but cautious in the near term : its underlying franchise quality is strong, yet the fund is concentrated in mega-cap technology/AI-linked names and its technical trend has weakened. Latest price: US$33.98, down 0.99% on 2026-11-03 (post-market status). Recent momentum: down 3.19% over 5 trading days , 7.46% over 20 trading days , and 5.43% over the quarter ; still up 4.17% year over year . 52-week range: US$27.96–37.10. The current price is 8.41% below the 52-week high and sits at the 65.86th percentile of that range—not near the annual low, despite the corre
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 05:28
$HIMS 20261120 20.0 PUT$ Conclusion: Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) watchlist has shown highly variable post-earnings trading rather than a dependable bullish pattern. Across 18 reported quarters from 2022Q4 through 2026Q2, the stock rose in 61.1% of first post-report sessions, but only 50.0% of five-session windows ended higher. The five-day average return was +3.51% , yet the median was -1.71% —meaning a handful of large rallies skewed the average upward. Event-study resultsReturns are measured from the last close before the report to the first and fifth closes in the post-earnings price window. Historical sample First post-report close Fifth post-report close Average return, 18 reports +0.77% +3.51% Median return +1.38%
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 04:30
$ORCL 20261106 110.0 PUT$ For Oracle (ORCL) watchlist , a 1.54 call/put ratio is mildly bullish flow, not automatically a bullish volatility signal : call volume was 54% above put volume. Calls may have been bought for upside exposure, but they can also be sold or used in spreads, so the ratio alone does not establish directional conviction. If the 64.95% IV applies to the same maturity and timestamp, it means options are pricing a relatively large move. The volatility-trade implication depends on whether that IV is elevated versus both realised volatility and Oracle’s own IV history: If IV is high versus realised volatility / its percentile: option buyers need an outsized move to overcome premium and theta decay; premium
avatarKelvin 梁
11-03 01:12
$Oracle(ORCL)$ For Oracle (ORCL) watchlist , a 1.54 call/put ratio is mildly bullish flow, not automatically a bullish volatility signal : call volume was 54% above put volume. Calls may have been bought for upside exposure, but they can also be sold or used in spreads, so the ratio alone does not establish directional conviction. If the 64.95% IV applies to the same maturity and timestamp, it means options are pricing a relatively large move. The volatility-trade implication depends on whether that IV is elevated versus both realised volatility and Oracle’s own IV history: If IV is high versus realised volatility / its percentile: option buyers need an outsized move to overcome premium and theta decay; premium-selling or defined-risk short-v
avatarKelvin 梁
11-02 22:57
$UPST 20261106 20.0 PUT$ The apparent contradiction is mostly a timing and net-flow issue for Upstart Holdings (UPST) watchlist : The “big-order inflow” was backward-looking, not necessarily buying on the selloff. Large-order flow was positive over the prior three sessions through 2026-10-30, including +$4.85 million on 2026-10-30. But on the reported day, large orders were net sellers by $0.31 million , while total net flow was -$1.61 million . Small orders were also net sellers by -$1.01 million . So the day’s money-flow data do not show sustained net accumulation. A fresh analyst reset appears to be the immediate catalyst. BofA cut its UPST price target to $30 from $37 while maintaining a Neutral rating. That reduces th
avatarKelvin 梁
11-02 07:47
$Bank of America(BAC)$   Probably yes on an earnings-run-rate basis, but not immediately or dollar-for-dollar in reported net income. For Bank of America (BAC) watchlist , the $1.2B Q3 charge was a largely one-off, non-tax-deductible regulatory settlement. Management’s 2027 net interest income (NII) growth outlook can offset it if delivered, but the benefit accrues through 2027 while the charge already depressed 2026Q3 results. BAC reported 2026Q3 NII of $16.45B , up 7.98% YoY . Applying an 8% increase to that quarterly NII base implies roughly $1.32B of additional quarterly NII; that is about 1.10× the $1.2B settlement charge. The simple annualized comparison is about $5.26B , or 4.39× the charge. The settlement
avatarKelvin 梁
11-02 03:27
Following Intel (INTC) watchlist ’s 2026-10-29 after-close earnings release, the post-results target cuts I could verify were: Firm Prior target New target Change Truist Securities $108 $72 Cut; rating maintained at Hold Tiger News JPMorgan $85 $80 Cut Sina Finance Morgan Stanley $84 $75 Cut Sina Finance StoneX $140 $100 Cut Sina Finance The cuts followed a Q4 outlook that was materially below expectations despite Intel’s Q3 earnings and revenue beat: Q4 revenue guidance was $15–16 billion versus roughly $17.1 billion expected, while adjusted EPS guidance was $0.25 versus about $0.43 expected. Tiger News Tiger News For context, INTC closed at $65.76 on 2026-11-02 . The current 42-analyst mean target is $96.11 , with a $70–$160 range. That consensus may lag the newest revi
@SullivanRrr:$Intel(INTC)$ This is going wherever the big players want it to go. From what I can tell, Friday's price action suggests they loaded up and are positioned for a move higher. We'll see how it plays out. Either way, the risk seems tilted to the upside.

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