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22:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beyond Meat Gets Ground Up in Q1, Offers Hope for Q2","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2133500490","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tough comparables, lingering pandemic impacts, and rising costs all conspired to torpedo results.","content":"<p><b>Beyond Meat</b> (NASDAQ:BYND) failed to live up to Wall Street's more optimistic first-quarter earnings forecasts, falling short on revenue and badly missing the mark on adjusted profits.</p>\n<p>The plant-based meat alternative is still confronting the drag of the global pandemic on foodservice sales, while also going up against some tough comparables from last year when revenue soared 141%, though management says there may be a light at the end of the tunnel.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68423b222df2b459a9ec3faf7de3bf1d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>Revenue rose 11% in the first quarter to $108.2 million, missing analyst expectations of $113.8 million, but adjusted losses widened to $26.2 million, or $0.42 per share, or more than double the $0.19 per share Wall Street had forecast.</p>\n<p>Reality diverged from expectations because COVID-19 continues to impact its foodservice business, where revenue tumbled 26% year over year to $16.7 million in the U.S., and plunged 44% internationally to $10.4 million. The segment now accounts for 25% of total revenue, down from 42% a year ago.</p>\n<p>It was largely able to make up for that by continuing to expand into the retail market both here and abroad, and segment revenue jumped 28% and 189%, respectively, as its plant-based meat alternatives gained greater acceptance globally.</p>\n<h2>No longer frozen out</h2>\n<p>Yet Beyond Meat sees a \"slow thaw\" occurring in the foodservice sector in the U.S. and in certain international markets, which is allowing it to begin offering guidance again. It's still a tentative step, and it's only applicable to net revenue, which management sees rising between $135 million and $150 million in the second quarter.</p>\n<p>At the midpoint, that's almost 26% higher than last year, and is helped by the new brand partnerships it's entered into, though new competition could eat into those projections for next quarter and beyond.</p>\n<p><b>Tyson Foods</b> (NYSE:TSN) announced last week it was launching its own line of plant-based burgers. While the protein processor has been dipping its toe into the plant-based market for some time now, a meatless patty is a direct challenge to Beyond Meat.</p>\n<p>It's also not the only large, well-financed, multinational corporation entering the plant-based alternatives market. So even if Beyond Meat is able to continue expanding into new retail locations, consumers may very well be confronted by a number of meatless options when they go shopping. It could blunt the expansion that it hopes changes its trajectory.</p>\n<h2>Throwing investors a bone</h2>\n<p>Plant-based protein sales surged 148% last year, according to Tyson, which could be a case of an expanding pie giving more players a seat at the table. Everyone just might be able to prosper, Beyond Meat included, as the niche becomes more mainstream in the U.S. and internationally.</p>\n<p>The company maintains it is \"highly focused\" on investing in and building out its production infrastructure in the U.S., the EU, and China. It's also developing new products to meet the challenge of a wider consumer palate for plant-based alternatives as well as the entry of so many competitors into the marketplace.</p>\n<p>Yet those all come with significant costs attached, and were in large part responsible for Beyond Meat missing top- and bottom-line expectations this quarter.</p>\n<h2>Put through a meat grinder</h2>\n<p>Still, it's a mark of forward thinking by management that it's not allowing what are ultimately transient market conditions brought on by the pandemic to interfere with its growth plans. It's how well consumers react to the flood of options that will determine Beyond Meat's future.</p>\n<p>The stock has lost almost half its value from the peak it reached earlier this year, and will likely fall further after the current earnings report, which has to be a disappointment to many. Beyond Meat just hasn't shown yet that it can do more than really nibble around the edges of its potential.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond Meat Gets Ground Up in Q1, Offers Hope for Q2</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond Meat Gets Ground Up in Q1, Offers Hope for Q2\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-07 22:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/07/beyond-meat-comes-up-short-in-q1-offers-hope-for-q/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) failed to live up to Wall Street's more optimistic first-quarter earnings forecasts, falling short on revenue and badly missing the mark on adjusted profits.\nThe plant-based ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/07/beyond-meat-comes-up-short-in-q1-offers-hope-for-q/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QTWO":"Q2 Holdings Inc","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","HOPE":"Hope Bancorp, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/05/07/beyond-meat-comes-up-short-in-q1-offers-hope-for-q/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2133500490","content_text":"Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) failed to live up to Wall Street's more optimistic first-quarter earnings forecasts, falling short on revenue and badly missing the mark on adjusted profits.\nThe plant-based meat alternative is still confronting the drag of the global pandemic on foodservice sales, while also going up against some tough comparables from last year when revenue soared 141%, though management says there may be a light at the end of the tunnel.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nRevenue rose 11% in the first quarter to $108.2 million, missing analyst expectations of $113.8 million, but adjusted losses widened to $26.2 million, or $0.42 per share, or more than double the $0.19 per share Wall Street had forecast.\nReality diverged from expectations because COVID-19 continues to impact its foodservice business, where revenue tumbled 26% year over year to $16.7 million in the U.S., and plunged 44% internationally to $10.4 million. The segment now accounts for 25% of total revenue, down from 42% a year ago.\nIt was largely able to make up for that by continuing to expand into the retail market both here and abroad, and segment revenue jumped 28% and 189%, respectively, as its plant-based meat alternatives gained greater acceptance globally.\nNo longer frozen out\nYet Beyond Meat sees a \"slow thaw\" occurring in the foodservice sector in the U.S. and in certain international markets, which is allowing it to begin offering guidance again. It's still a tentative step, and it's only applicable to net revenue, which management sees rising between $135 million and $150 million in the second quarter.\nAt the midpoint, that's almost 26% higher than last year, and is helped by the new brand partnerships it's entered into, though new competition could eat into those projections for next quarter and beyond.\nTyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) announced last week it was launching its own line of plant-based burgers. While the protein processor has been dipping its toe into the plant-based market for some time now, a meatless patty is a direct challenge to Beyond Meat.\nIt's also not the only large, well-financed, multinational corporation entering the plant-based alternatives market. So even if Beyond Meat is able to continue expanding into new retail locations, consumers may very well be confronted by a number of meatless options when they go shopping. It could blunt the expansion that it hopes changes its trajectory.\nThrowing investors a bone\nPlant-based protein sales surged 148% last year, according to Tyson, which could be a case of an expanding pie giving more players a seat at the table. Everyone just might be able to prosper, Beyond Meat included, as the niche becomes more mainstream in the U.S. and internationally.\nThe company maintains it is \"highly focused\" on investing in and building out its production infrastructure in the U.S., the EU, and China. It's also developing new products to meet the challenge of a wider consumer palate for plant-based alternatives as well as the entry of so many competitors into the marketplace.\nYet those all come with significant costs attached, and were in large part responsible for Beyond Meat missing top- and bottom-line expectations this quarter.\nPut through a meat grinder\nStill, it's a mark of forward thinking by management that it's not allowing what are ultimately transient market conditions brought on by the pandemic to interfere with its growth plans. It's how well consumers react to the flood of options that will determine Beyond Meat's future.\nThe stock has lost almost half its value from the peak it reached earlier this year, and will likely fall further after the current earnings report, which has to be a disappointment to many. Beyond Meat just hasn't shown yet that it can do more than really nibble around the edges of its potential.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106109755,"gmtCreate":1620090988677,"gmtModify":1704338484694,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wahh","listText":"Wahh","text":"Wahh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106109755","repostId":"1191810294","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191810294","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620089847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191810294?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-04 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Asia Stocks Mixed, Futures Dip After Tech Retreat: Markets Wrap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191810294","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Powell says economy making real progress but disparities weighCommodities prices climb, with silver ","content":"<ul><li>Powell says economy making real progress but disparities weigh</li><li>Commodities prices climb, with silver leading precious metals</li></ul><p>Asian stocks were mixed and U.S. equity futures retreated Tuesday in the wake of a dip in technology giants on Wall Street. The dollar steadied after declining along with Treasury yields.</p><p>South Korean shares slid while Australia rose modestly. Trading will be limited with Japan and China among markets closed for holidays. U.S. equity contracts fell after the S&amp;P 500 Index ended near session lows and shares such asTesla Inc.andAmazon.com Inc.weighed on the Nasdaq 100.</p><p>Ten-year Treasury yields dropped back to around 1.6% amid comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the economic recovery is patchy.</p><p>Commodities held an advance after silver led gains inprecious metalsas the prospect of near-zero rates for longer boosted demand. Oil was steady after climbing over 1%. Digital token Ether extended itssurgeto set another record.</p><p>Why Sell in May?</p><p>Recent history shows staying with U.S. stocks may pay off in the next six months<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d180709bd1870d47ae39da5965ff034\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Data Monday showed growth among U.S. manufacturers cooled in April, while a gauge of prices paid for materials jumped to the highest since 2008. Powell reiterated that progress in the recovery has been uneven across racial and income divides. New York Fed President John Williams said current conditions are “not nearly enough” for a shift in the monetary policy stance.</p><p>“The world remains almost perfect for equities,” Chris Iggo, a chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, said in a note. Despite strong growth, rising earnings and rich valuations, “no-oneis taking the punch-bowl away for now,” he added.</p><p>Markets seem to be looking through the persistent threat of the pandemic, focusing instead on the relative success of the vaccine rollouts in much of the developed world. Meanwhile, fierce newCovid-19 wavesare enveloping India and parts of Southeast Asia, placing severe strain on their health-care systems and prompting appeals for help.</p><p>Here are some key events to watch this week:</p><ul><li>U.S. trade balance, factory orders, durable goods are due Tuesday</li><li>The Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision is coming Tuesday</li><li>Chicago Fed President Charles Evans gives a virtual speech at an event hosted by Bard College on Wednesday. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives a virtual speech to the Boston Economic Club</li><li>Bank of England rate decision Thursday</li><li>The April U.S. employment report is released on Friday</li></ul><p>These are some of the main moves in markets:</p><p>Stocks</p><ul><li>S&amp;P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 8:28 a.m. in Hong Kong. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 contracts slipped 0.3%</li><li>Australia’s S&amp;P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.3%</li><li>South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.4%</li><li>Hang Seng Index futures added 0.8%</li></ul><p>Currencies</p><ul><li>The yen traded at 109.14 per dollar</li><li>The offshore yuan was at 6.4742 per dollar</li><li>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%</li><li>The euro traded at $1.2055</li></ul><p>Bonds</p><ul><li>Ten-year Treasury futures were little changed. The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined almost three basis points to 1.60%. Cash Treasuries won’t trade in Asia Tuesday</li><li>Australia’s 10-year bond yield fell about one basis point to 1.74%</li></ul><p>Commodities</p><ul><li>West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1% to $64.57 a barrel</li><li>Gold was at $1,791.46 an ounce after climbing 1.3%</li></ul><p><i>— With assistance by Rita Nazareth, and Claire Ballentine</i></p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Asia Stocks Mixed, Futures Dip After Tech Retreat: Markets Wrap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAsia Stocks Mixed, Futures Dip After Tech Retreat: Markets Wrap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-04 08:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/stocks-in-asia-to-open-up-dollar-yields-declined-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-asia><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Powell says economy making real progress but disparities weighCommodities prices climb, with silver leading precious metalsAsian stocks were mixed and U.S. equity futures retreated Tuesday in the wake...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/stocks-in-asia-to-open-up-dollar-yields-declined-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-asia\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-03/stocks-in-asia-to-open-up-dollar-yields-declined-markets-wrap?srnd=premium-asia","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191810294","content_text":"Powell says economy making real progress but disparities weighCommodities prices climb, with silver leading precious metalsAsian stocks were mixed and U.S. equity futures retreated Tuesday in the wake of a dip in technology giants on Wall Street. The dollar steadied after declining along with Treasury yields.South Korean shares slid while Australia rose modestly. Trading will be limited with Japan and China among markets closed for holidays. U.S. equity contracts fell after the S&P 500 Index ended near session lows and shares such asTesla Inc.andAmazon.com Inc.weighed on the Nasdaq 100.Ten-year Treasury yields dropped back to around 1.6% amid comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that the economic recovery is patchy.Commodities held an advance after silver led gains inprecious metalsas the prospect of near-zero rates for longer boosted demand. Oil was steady after climbing over 1%. Digital token Ether extended itssurgeto set another record.Why Sell in May?Recent history shows staying with U.S. stocks may pay off in the next six monthsData Monday showed growth among U.S. manufacturers cooled in April, while a gauge of prices paid for materials jumped to the highest since 2008. Powell reiterated that progress in the recovery has been uneven across racial and income divides. New York Fed President John Williams said current conditions are “not nearly enough” for a shift in the monetary policy stance.“The world remains almost perfect for equities,” Chris Iggo, a chief investment officer at AXA Investment Managers, said in a note. Despite strong growth, rising earnings and rich valuations, “no-oneis taking the punch-bowl away for now,” he added.Markets seem to be looking through the persistent threat of the pandemic, focusing instead on the relative success of the vaccine rollouts in much of the developed world. Meanwhile, fierce newCovid-19 wavesare enveloping India and parts of Southeast Asia, placing severe strain on their health-care systems and prompting appeals for help.Here are some key events to watch this week:U.S. trade balance, factory orders, durable goods are due TuesdayThe Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision is coming TuesdayChicago Fed President Charles Evans gives a virtual speech at an event hosted by Bard College on Wednesday. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester gives a virtual speech to the Boston Economic ClubBank of England rate decision ThursdayThe April U.S. employment report is released on FridayThese are some of the main moves in markets:StocksS&P 500 futures fell 0.2% as of 8:28 a.m. in Hong Kong. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 contracts slipped 0.3%Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.3%South Korea’s Kospi shed 0.4%Hang Seng Index futures added 0.8%CurrenciesThe yen traded at 109.14 per dollarThe offshore yuan was at 6.4742 per dollarThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%The euro traded at $1.2055BondsTen-year Treasury futures were little changed. The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined almost three basis points to 1.60%. Cash Treasuries won’t trade in Asia TuesdayAustralia’s 10-year bond yield fell about one basis point to 1.74%CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1% to $64.57 a barrelGold was at $1,791.46 an ounce after climbing 1.3%— With assistance by Rita Nazareth, and Claire Ballentine","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108214049,"gmtCreate":1620029866781,"gmtModify":1704337590477,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108214049","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135819410?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 07:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车",".DJI":"道琼斯","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PYPL":"PayPal",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBER":"优步","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108688243,"gmtCreate":1620018691582,"gmtModify":1704337464818,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108688243","repostId":"1180673336","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108681571,"gmtCreate":1620018635293,"gmtModify":1704337463686,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108681571","repostId":"1121605010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121605010","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620014543,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121605010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 12:02","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121605010","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&amp;P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.</li>\n <li>Fortunately, whatever your goals, yield, value, growth, or total returns, something great is always on sale if you know where to look.</li>\n <li>Baidu is the Google of China, and planning on increasing spending by 30% annually over the coming years, focusing on AI, driverless cars, and streaming.</li>\n <li>In recent weeks it plunged 40%, partially due to forced hedge fund margin call selling. This creates a potentially exceptional opportunity to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" about this speculative hyper-growth blue-chip.</li>\n <li>I recently bought a starter position in Baidu, because it's 31% undervalued and analysts think it could double in the next three years, and almost triple over the next five. For anyone comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants, Baidu is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce5597f98f5e2431c73edea32173192\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"693\"><span>Photo by DNY59/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Over seven years as an analyst I've studied the greatest investors in history, to see what strategies made them legends.</p>\n<p><b>Greatest Investors In History: Masters Of Financial Science</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Name</b></td>\n   <td><b>Returns</b></td>\n   <td><b>Time Horizon</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Most Famous For</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Jim Simmons (Co-Founder Renaissance Technologies)</td>\n   <td>71.8% CAGR</td>\n   <td>1994 to 2014 (best investing record ever recorded)</td>\n   <td><p>Pure Quant Based Investing</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Joel Greenblatt</td>\n   <td>40% CAGR</td>\n   <td>21 years at Gotham Capital</td>\n   <td><p><b>\"Above-Average Quality Companies At Below-Average Prices\"</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Peter Lynch</td>\n   <td>29.2% CAGR at Fidelity's Magellan Fund</td>\n   <td>1977 to 1990 (13 years)</td>\n   <td><p><b>\"Growth At A Reasonable Price\"</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Bill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust 1990 to 2006)</td>\n   <td>22.8% CAGR and beat the S&amp;P 500 for 15 consecutive years</td>\n   <td>16 years</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Warren Buffett</td>\n   <td>20.8% CAGR at Berkshire</td>\n   <td>55 Years</td>\n   <td><p><b>Greedy when others are fearful</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Benjamin Graham</td>\n   <td>20% CAGR vs 12% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>1934 to 1956 (22 years)</td>\n   <td><b>Margin of Safety</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Edward Thorp</td>\n   <td>20+% CAGR</td>\n   <td>over 30 years</td>\n   <td><p>invented card counting,<b>pure statistically-based investing</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Charlie Munger</td>\n   <td>19.80%</td>\n   <td>1962 to 1975</td>\n   <td><p><b>Wonderful companies at fair prices</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Howard Marks</td>\n   <td>19% CAGR</td>\n   <td>Since 1995</td>\n   <td><p><b>Valuation Mean Reversion</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Anne Scheiber</td>\n   <td>18.3% CAGR</td>\n   <td>50 years</td>\n   <td><p>Turned $5K into $22 million with no formal training, purely with<b>tax-efficient buy and hold blue-chip investing</b>.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>John Templeton</td>\n   <td>300% from 1939 to 1943, 15.8% CAGR from 1954 to 1992</td>\n   <td>38 years</td>\n   <td>Market Cycles</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Carl Icahn</td>\n   <td>14.6% CAGR vs 5.6% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td><p>2001 to 2016 (15 Years)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>David Swenson</td>\n   <td>13.9% CAGR at Yale's Endowment (includes bonds and alternative assets) vs 10.7% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>30 years</td>\n   <td><p>Alternative Asset Allocation</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Geraldine Weiss</td>\n   <td>11.2% vs 9.8% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>37 years</td>\n   <td><p><b>Best risk-adjusted track record</b>of any newsletter over 30 years according to Hubbert Financial Digest, popularized<b>dividend yield theory</b>(the only strategy she employed)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Combining these lessons, along with decades of market studies from leading research institutions and blue-chip analyst firms, I've determined that there are six fundamentals that over the long term will make you rich (assuming you have discretionary savings to invest of course).</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Portfolio risk-management</li>\n <li>safety</li>\n <li>quality</li>\n <li>yield</li>\n <li>growth</li>\n <li>and value</li>\n</ul>\n<p>When combined with patience, time, and discipline, these are what made the greatest investors in history the legends they are today.</p>\n<p>You and I may never match the returns of the legends, but if we practice disciplined financial science we can avoid costly mistakes, and focus on the highest probability/low-risk blue-chips.</p>\n<blockquote>\n It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.\" - Charlie Munger\n</blockquote>\n<p>These are the \"consistently not stupid\" decisions that made Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett so successful.</p>\n<p>Today I want to explain why I've recently opened a starter tracking position in speculative hyper-growth blue-chip Baidu (BIDU).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78b7d254783a9f8afc60962aa7d03ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>All Chinese tech giants are suffering a bear market right now. But notice how Baidu recently fell 40% in a matter of weeks.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu was also held by now-infamous hedge fund Archegos Capital Management at that time, which blew up during the same week. When the highly levered Archegos was unable to meet a margin call, banks seized Archegos' assets, including Baidu, and sold them off in massive blocks, accelerating Baidu's plunge.\" -Motley Fool\n</blockquote>\n<p>Institutional forced selling is one of the best opportunities for prudent long-term investors to buy the world's highest quality companies at mouth-watering prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c272fe0a5f7a5052ea3021630d643\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>Lowe's (LOW) and Realty Income (O) both plunged 25% on March 16th, due to institutional forced selling.</p>\n<p>In other words, when hedge funds get margin calls, they become the ultimate dumb money. Taking the other side of those trades can be the way to earn Buffett-like returns, through buying and holding blue-chip investing.</p>\n<p>So let me explain the four reasons why I consider it time to get greedy when others are fearful on Baidu.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Today I buy what others won't, so tomorrow I earn returns others can't.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n  - Paraphrase of Jerry Rice\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Reason 1: A Speculative Blue-Chip Quality Company</b></p>\n<p>According to the 2017 study<i>Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?</i>by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business 52% of all stocks, lose money over time.</p>\n<p>This study looked at 26,000 companies from 1926 to 2016 and found that about 12% went to zero.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f826f65373ae3a2e4061f906c54bb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868a6e0418dbe8596b0c667120b3a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\"><span>(Source: Bessembinder et al)</span></p>\n<p>From 1926 to 2016 over 3,000 US companies listed on US exchanges went bankrupt. 1,100 or about 4%, delivered 100% of net positive returns. Just 48% of stocks delivered positive returns.</p>\n<p>In other words, safety and quality are what can help you avoid the value traps that don't make any money or lose all of your savings.</p>\n<p>The Dividend Kings quality scores factor in 143 fundamental metrics covering</p>\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Our model actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by eight rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.</p>\n<p>Every metric was selected based on</p>\n<ul>\n <li>decades of empirical data</li>\n <li>the experience of the greatest investors in history</li>\n <li>eight rating agencies</li>\n <li>and what blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to a company's long-term success.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Baidu's quality is 9/12 speculative blue-chip, meaning I recommend a 2.5% max risk cap position sizing.</p>\n<p><b>Dividend Kings Quality Rating System</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Quality Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Meaning</b></td>\n   <td><b>Max Invested Capital Risk Recommendation</b></td>\n   <td><b>Margin Of Safety Potentially Good Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>Strong Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>Very Strong Buy</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Ultra-Value Buy</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3</td>\n   <td>Terrible, Very High Long-Term Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>4</td>\n   <td>Very Poor</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>Poor</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>6</td>\n   <td>Below-Average, Fallen Angels (very speculative)</td>\n   <td>1%</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>65%</td>\n   <td>75%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>7</td>\n   <td>Average (Relative to S&amp;P 500)</td>\n   <td>2.5%</td>\n   <td>35%</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>65%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>8</td>\n   <td>Above-Average</td>\n   <td>5% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td>35% to 40%</td>\n   <td>45% to 50%</td>\n   <td><p>55% to 60%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>9</b></td>\n   <td><b>Blue-Chip</b></td>\n   <td>7% (unless<b>speculative</b>then<b>2.5%</b>)</td>\n   <td>20% to<b>25%</b></td>\n   <td>30% to<b>35%</b></td>\n   <td>40% to<b>45%</b></td>\n   <td><p>50% to<b>55%</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>10</td>\n   <td>SWAN (a higher caliber of Blue-Chip)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>15% to 20%</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td>35% to 40%</td>\n   <td><p>45% to 50%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>11</td>\n   <td>Super SWAN (exceptionally dependable blue-chips)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>10% to 15%</td>\n   <td>20% to 25%</td>\n   <td>30% to 35%</td>\n   <td><p>40% to 45%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>12</td>\n   <td>Ultra SWAN (as close to perfect companies as exist)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>5% to 10%</td>\n   <td>15% to 20%</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td><p>35% to 40%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>What exactly makes Baidu a speculative blue-chip?</p>\n<p><b>Balance Sheet Safety</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n   <td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (75 Safety Metric Model)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>1 (very unsafe)</td>\n   <td>0% to 20%</td>\n   <td>over 4%</td>\n   <td>16+%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2 (unsafe average)</td>\n   <td>21% to 40%</td>\n   <td>over 2%</td>\n   <td>8% to 16%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3 (average)</td>\n   <td>41% to 60%</td>\n   <td>2%</td>\n   <td>4% to 8%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>4 (safe)</b></td>\n   <td><b>61% to 80%</b></td>\n   <td><b>1%</b></td>\n   <td><b>2% to 4%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n   <td>81% to 100%</td>\n   <td>0.5%</td>\n   <td>1% to 2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>76%</b></td>\n   <td><b>A stable rating from Fitch, A3 (A- equivalent) stable rating Moody's</b></td>\n   <td><b>0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Company</b></td>\n   <td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Interpretation</b></td>\n   <td><b>Points</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n   <td>58%</td>\n   <td>Average Dependability</td>\n   <td>2</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>31% or below</td>\n   <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n   <td>1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>32% to 70%</td>\n   <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n   <td>2</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>71% to 80%</td>\n   <td>Very Dependable</td>\n   <td>3</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>81% or higher</td>\n   <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n   <td>4</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>67%</b></td>\n   <td><b>Above-Average Dependability</b></td>\n   <td><b>2</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Overall Quality</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>Final Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Safety</td>\n   <td>76%</td>\n   <td>4/5</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Business Model</td>\n   <td>80%</td>\n   <td>3/3</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Dependability</td>\n   <td>67%</td>\n   <td>2/4</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Total</b></td>\n   <td><b>73%</b></td>\n   <td><b>9/12 Speculative Blue-Chip</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Baidu is the 245th Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 495) = 49th Percentile</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927ef17638b4bbf9db4e34f1aeb01a61\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\"><span>(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated at the end of each day, sorted by overall quality score</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li>green = potentially good buy or better</li>\n <li>blue = potentially reasonable buy</li>\n <li>yellow = hold</li>\n <li>red = potential trim/sell</li>\n</ul>\n<p>BIDU's 73% quality score means it's the 245th highest quality company on the DK 500 Master List. This list includes the world's highest quality companies including</p>\n<ul>\n <li>all dividend champions</li>\n <li>all dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>all dividend kings</li>\n <li>all 12/12 Ultra SWANs (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street, think wide moat aristocrats)</li>\n <li>numerous global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>BIDU is about average quality compared to the world's elite companies and similar in quality to such 9/12 blue-chips and, 10/12 SWANs, as</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Qualcomm (QCOM)</li>\n <li>Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>W. P. Carey (WPC)</li>\n <li>Sonoco Products (SON) - dividend champion</li>\n <li>H.B. Fuller (FUL) - dividend king</li>\n <li>MetLife (MET)</li>\n <li>Digital Realty Trust (DLR)</li>\n <li>Leggett &amp; Platt (LEG) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>V.F. Corp (VFC) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Bank of New York Mellon (BK)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Baidu has a strong cash-rich balance sheet, though it is taking on extra leverage in order to fund its ambitious growth efforts.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c7bc8d9da039967a0ce9e435f7b6eb\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Including leasing expenses, BIDU has 2X as much cash as debt.</p>\n<p>Fitch and Moody's rate Baidu A stable and A3 (A- equivalent) stable outlooks, indicating 0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect much higher spending in the short-term to cause leverage to increase, though rating agencies don't expect this to be permanent.</p>\n<p>The key safety ratios with Baidu are the F, Z, and M scores, advanced accounting ratios created by leading research institutions that use asset ratios scanned from quarterly filings.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>F-score measures short-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>Z-score measures 2-year bankruptcy risk (with 84% to 92% historical accuracy)</li>\n <li>M-score measures accounting fraud risk (with 76% historical accuracy)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>7/9 is very safe on the F-score = very low short-term bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>3.59 vs 3+ very safe and 9.51 historical, confirms the A-credit ratings and low long-term risk of losing all your money.</p>\n<p>And the M-score of -2.42 indicates a significantly less than 17.5% probability that Baidu is cooking its books.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0593cdfc392caf38a9d7ca42c482c359\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110ac3a73c5c935e0778da21e6eb62e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's historically unsafe M-score has been improving and became safe at the end of 2014 and has remained so for the last seven years.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>its safety and quality score still get dinged though because we factor in every important metric so we don't miss any warning signs</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching accounting fraud and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting.</p>\n<p>Combined with its credit ratings and risk ratings from 5 different rating agencies, plus its auditors, I can say with relatively high confidence that Baidu is not the next Luckin Coffee.</p>\n<p>Quality is a proven alpha factor, one of seven that beats the market over the long term.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4868372d29cef8d5b07fc5a538fb58e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"></p>\n<p>On Wall Street, profitability over time is the most accurate proxy for quality.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>credit ratings are one of the best qualitative quality proxies</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c8a6a2913d554a5c9780f869d7a887\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Baidu's profitability is historically in the top 20% of its peers, confirming a wide and stable moat.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td>\n   <td><b>Major Interactive Media Companies More Profitable Than BIDU (Out of 543)</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Margin</td>\n   <td>67.35</td>\n   <td>177</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Net Margin</td>\n   <td>81.26</td>\n   <td>102</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Equity</td>\n   <td>67.86</td>\n   <td>175</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Assets</td>\n   <td>68.47</td>\n   <td>171</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Capital</td>\n   <td>69.61</td>\n   <td>165</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n   <td><b>70.91</b></td>\n   <td><b>158</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</i></p>\n<p>Over the last year, increased growth spending has reduced profitability to the top 29% of peers, though that's expected to recover in the future.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>for example, returns on equity are expected to rise 10% by 2024</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Joel Greenblatt defined quality by return on capital, his gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>operating income (EBIT)/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business for a year)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Greenblatt's entire legendary track record, 40% annual returns for 21 years, was done by combining high ROC with low valuations.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d43fa9d5032a24362f75054f2a9e93\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Even with heavy growth spending in recent years, Baidu's returns on capital are very impressive.</p>\n<p>The average Master List company has 88% ROC.</p>\n<p>The average aristocrat 83%.</p>\n<p>The average Ultra SWAN 87%.</p>\n<p>Over the past year, BIDU's ROC has been 103% and in Q4 it was 95%.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect that in the next few years, ROC will revert back to its historical 205%.</p>\n<p>A level of profitability that, according to Joel Greenblatt, would make BIDU one of the highest quality companies in the world.</p>\n<p>Baidu's future growth is expected to come from aggressive investments into driverless cars (long-term) and AI and streaming in the short and medium term.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Growth Spending Consensus Forecast</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>SG&amp;A</b></td>\n   <td><b>R&amp;D</b></td>\n   <td><b>Capex</b></td>\n   <td><b>Total Growth Spending</b></td>\n   <td><b>Sales</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Growth Spending/Sales</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>$2,792</td>\n   <td>$3,016</td>\n   <td>$993</td>\n   <td>$4,009</td>\n   <td>$16,548</td>\n   <td>24.23%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>$3,574</td>\n   <td>$3,554</td>\n   <td>$1,893</td>\n   <td>$5,447</td>\n   <td>$19,517</td>\n   <td>27.91%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>$3,974</td>\n   <td>$4,062</td>\n   <td>$2,220</td>\n   <td>$6,282</td>\n   <td>$22,235</td>\n   <td>28.25%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>$5,049</td>\n   <td>$5,858</td>\n   <td>$2,719</td>\n   <td>$8,577</td>\n   <td>$25,258</td>\n   <td>33.96%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$1,504</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$30,071</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2025</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2026</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>21.83%</b></td>\n   <td><b>24.77%</b></td>\n   <td><b>10.94%</b></td>\n   <td><b>28.85%</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.10%</b></td>\n   <td><b>NA</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Historically Baidu spends about 17% of its revenue on growth. By 2023 that's expected to double.</p>\n<p>Total growth spending is expected to grow at almost 30% annually for the next three years.</p>\n<p>Baidu Consensus Profit Forecast</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>Sales</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBITDA</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBIT (Operating Income)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Net Income</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>$16,548</td>\n   <td>$2,106</td>\n   <td>$4,251</td>\n   <td>$2,216</td>\n   <td>$3,473</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>$19,517</td>\n   <td>$3,947</td>\n   <td>$4,734</td>\n   <td>$2,629</td>\n   <td>$2,760</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>$22,235</td>\n   <td>$5,013</td>\n   <td>$5,812</td>\n   <td>$3,400</td>\n   <td>$3,381</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>$25,258</td>\n   <td>$5,854</td>\n   <td>$6,730</td>\n   <td>$4,163</td>\n   <td>$4,226</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>$30,071</td>\n   <td>$7,421</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$6,195</td>\n   <td>$5,268</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.10%</b></td>\n   <td><b>37.01%</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.55%</b></td>\n   <td><b>29.31%</b></td>\n   <td><b>10.98%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Management's guidance, which is the basis for these consensus forecasts, is for strong revenue growth. Net margins are expected to compress but cash flows are expected to soar.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow, the ultimate source of all intrinsic value according to Ben Graham and Warren Buffett, is expected to more than triple by 2024.</p>\n<p>Baidu Consensus Margin Forecast</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBITDA Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBIT (Operating) Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>Net Margin</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>12.7%</td>\n   <td>25.7%</td>\n   <td>13.4%</td>\n   <td>21.0%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>20.2%</td>\n   <td>24.3%</td>\n   <td>13.5%</td>\n   <td>14.1%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>22.5%</td>\n   <td>26.1%</td>\n   <td>15.3%</td>\n   <td>15.2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>23.2%</td>\n   <td>26.6%</td>\n   <td>16.5%</td>\n   <td>16.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>24.7%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>20.6%</td>\n   <td>17.5%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>18.01%</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.23%</b></td>\n   <td><b>11.37%</b></td>\n   <td><b>-4.42%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Baidu's profitability is ultimately expected to improve, though net margins won't until its major growth initiatives are over.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8691866fef56c1dd17062657e10811\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU ended 2020 with $5.6 billion in cash, and that's expected to rise to $22 billion by 2023, and potentially nearly $60 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>That may not be as impressive as some tech companies ($601 billion by 2026 for Amazon), but it does mean that Baidu's war chest and financial flexibility to pivot towards AI, driverless cars, and streaming will grow significantly in future years.</p>\n<p>Baidu Medium-Term Growth Consensus</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020 Actual Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>2023 consensus growth</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EPS</td>\n   <td>31%</td>\n   <td>7%</td>\n   <td>18%</td>\n   <td>16%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n   <td>124%</td>\n   <td>22%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>-14%</td>\n   <td>59%</td>\n   <td>31%</td>\n   <td>7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Free cash flow</td>\n   <td>96%</td>\n   <td>85%</td>\n   <td>22%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBITDA</td>\n   <td>-18%</td>\n   <td>53%</td>\n   <td>27%</td>\n   <td>24%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBIT (operating income)</td>\n   <td>130%</td>\n   <td>26%</td>\n   <td>26%</td>\n   <td>19%</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>In the next few years, Baidu's growth efforts are expected to result in strong growth. But what's attracted me to the Google of China, is that this hyper-growth is expected to continue for many years to come.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 2: Long-Term Hyper-Growth Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfa536609dc32efe57d7af85154ddbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's AI, streaming, and driverless car investments are showing up in \"other services\" and that revenue is expected to grow almost 50% in 3 years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a582df968d9cfaf4a09f2f2984f522\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ab775d253a2fbce4a1a5001922e0b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li>16.0% to 17.5% long-term growth consensus range</li>\n <li>6% to 28% growth consensus range adjusted for historical margin of error</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae4ef54819e7f58c95b2f21ced20393\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/705d5218e7d882c4c52948d4f47fbb5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"></p>\n<p>The margins of error on BIDU forecasts are very wide. 33% of the time it grows much faster than expected, 33% of the time much slower, and 33% of the about as fast as expected.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade (excluding outliers) are 60% to the downside, 55% to the upside</li>\n <li>the long-term growth consensus range: 16% to 18% CAGR</li>\n <li>the margin of error adjusted long-term analyst growth consensus range: 6% to 28% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c38a8847c12ffd67928559c978ff18\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's historical growth is from -9% to 52%. So relatively high growth uncertainty, more so than most tech blue-chips.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>and thus the $650 investment vs $10K in GOOG, $89K in BABA, and $200K in Amazon</li>\n</ul>\n<p>However, analysts expect growth to be similar to the 20% growth of the last decade.</p>\n<p>And at today's high margin of safety, we're likely getting a good deal to compensate for BIDU's growth uncertainty and complex risk profile.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 3: Highly Attractive Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3ad1e7e41458b1bdc4f379d7917692\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU growing at the rates analysts expect in the future has historically been valued at 23X to 26X earnings.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd2ab20e70f34f53bc7768feb9b6a24\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU is currently trading at 20.4X forward earnings and 13.6X EV/EBITDA.</p>\n<p>EV/EBITDA is market cap + net debt/EBITDA and is Joel Greenblatt's and private equity's favorite valuation metric.</p>\n<p>Baidu's 13-year median EV/EBITDA is 23.2, and its trading at 13.6, implying a potential 42% discount to fair value.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>Historical Fair Value (12-years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022</b></td>\n   <td><b>2023</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Earnings</td>\n   <td>25.0</td>\n   <td>$243.87</td>\n   <td>$261.27</td>\n   <td>$307.91</td>\n   <td>$357.77</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF) - 10 yr</td>\n   <td>23.5</td>\n   <td>$324.46</td>\n   <td>$394.46</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>19.9</td>\n   <td>$202.33</td>\n   <td>$321.22</td>\n   <td>$420.37</td>\n   <td>$448.64</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Free Cash Flow (11-yr)</td>\n   <td>27.5</td>\n   <td>$220.77</td>\n   <td>$408.53</td>\n   <td>$497.28</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBITDA</td>\n   <td>22.0</td>\n   <td>$190.60</td>\n   <td>$291.18</td>\n   <td>$370.80</td>\n   <td>$459.36</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBIT (operating income)</td>\n   <td>34.5</td>\n   <td>$207.78</td>\n   <td>$261.14</td>\n   <td>$328.78</td>\n   <td>$392.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n   <td><b>$224.60</b></td>\n   <td><b>$312.71</b></td>\n   <td><b>$373.81</b></td>\n   <td><b>$410.40</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Current Price</td>\n   <td>$215.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></p></td>\n   <td><b>3.91%</b></td>\n   <td><b>30.98%</b></td>\n   <td><b>42.26%</b></td>\n   <td><b>47.41%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><i><b>Upside To Fair Value</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>4%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>45%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>73%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>90%</b></i></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>BIDU is about 31% historically undervalued right now, meaning that if it grows as expected through 2023 and returns to fair value that's 90% upside potential.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>$350 is the median 12-month price target</li>\n <li>65% upside potential over the next 12 months according to analysts</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And that guestimate is 100% justified by fundamentals.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n   <td><b>Margin Of Safety For Speculative 9/12 Blue-Chip Quality Companies</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020 Price</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021 Price</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022 Price</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>$224.60</td>\n   <td>$312.71</td>\n   <td>$373.81</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Potentially Good Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>25%</b></td>\n   <td><b>$168.45</b></td>\n   <td><b>$234.53</b></td>\n   <td><b>$280.35</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n   <td>35%</td>\n   <td>$145.99</td>\n   <td>$203.26</td>\n   <td>$242.97</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>$123.53</td>\n   <td>$171.99</td>\n   <td>$205.59</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>$101.07</td>\n   <td>$140.72</td>\n   <td>$168.21</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Currently</b></td>\n   <td><b>$213.41</b></td>\n   <td><b>5%</b></td>\n   <td><b>32%</b></td>\n   <td><b>43%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</p></td>\n   <td>5%</td>\n   <td>47%</td>\n   <td>75%</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>At a 32% margin of safety, Baidu, despite all its risks, is a potentially good buy for more risk-tolerant investors.</p>\n<p>But the ability to potentially enjoy monster short-term gains is just the cherry on top with Baidu.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 4: Eye-Popping Long-Term Return Potential</b></p>\n<p>Here is a reasonable idea of what kind of returns you can expect buying BIDU today.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu 2023 Consensus Return Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15f5606b2eaa042608497f68998a69cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>If BAIDU grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>75% total returns</li>\n <li>23.3% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs -1.3% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\n<p>From its 31% discount, BIDU has the potential to outperform the 36% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 78% over the next three years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be8ed919f810734d99f50b4b14741dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>Corporate earnings growth estimates are rising by the day. Yet the market has already priced in three years of earnings growth totaling 62% or 17.4% CAGR.</p>\n<p>Over the long term, BIDU's return outlook is also very strong.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu 2026 Consensus Return Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aef71a5e564b122341a52dec05bb34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>If BIDU grows as analysts expect through 2026 and returns to historical fair value you could expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>179% total returns</li>\n <li>19.8% CAGR</li>\n <li>vs 4.5% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li><i><b>4.4X better than the market's consensus return potential</b></i></li>\n</ul>\n<p>If BIDU delivers as analysts expect, then buying today could almost triple your money in the next five years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/935c135e000c240df768640b47826e5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>Over the long term, analysts expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 17.5% growth = 17.5% CAGR very long-term total returns (after valuation changes cancel out)</li>\n <li>6% to 28% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.8% for the S&amp;P and 10.8% for the dividend aristocrats</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Baidu Total Returns Since 2006</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe7969e52431f689a9737c4c48401e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f72f9d45d8f32d950ea367c84cb531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40bd03cb49698c42f76664151bd05cf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"><span>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</span></p>\n<p>In the last 15 years, BIDU has turned $1 into $26, adjusted for inflation, and crushed the market with 8X more wealth compounding.</p>\n<p>It's expected to grow slightly slower than in the past, but the ability to potentially enjoy 17.5% hyper-growth for many years is incredibly attractive.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Dividend Aristocrat Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Forecast: $650 Initial Investment</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>5.8% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</b></td>\n   <td><b>8.8% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (aristocrat consensus)</b></td>\n   <td><b>15.5% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (BIDU consensus)</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>$1,325.65</td>\n   <td>$1,524.56</td>\n   <td>$1,336.05</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>10</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1,757.34</b></td>\n   <td><b>$2,324.28</b></td>\n   <td><b>$2,746.21</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15</td>\n   <td>$2,329.62</td>\n   <td>$3,543.51</td>\n   <td>$5,644.73</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20</td>\n   <td>$3,088.26</td>\n   <td>$5,402.29</td>\n   <td>$11,602.54</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25</td>\n   <td>$4,093.94</td>\n   <td>$8,236.11</td>\n   <td>$23,848.60</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>30</b></td>\n   <td><b>$5,427.13</b></td>\n   <td><b>$12,556.45</b></td>\n   <td><b>$49,019.95</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>35</td>\n   <td>$7,194.46</td>\n   <td>$19,143.06</td>\n   <td>$100,758.76</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>40</td>\n   <td>$9,537.33</td>\n   <td>$29,184.74</td>\n   <td>$207,106.02</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>45</td>\n   <td>$12,643.14</td>\n   <td>$44,493.88</td>\n   <td>$425,699.02</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>50</b></td>\n   <td><b>$16,760.36</b></td>\n   <td><b>$67,833.58</b></td>\n   <td><b>$875,009.10</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>The ability to grow 2X to 3X as fast as the S&amp;P 500 or aristocrats creates the potential for wealth compounding on a massive scale. Look at how large my $650 initial BIDU investment can grow, assuming analysts are right and management delivers the expected growth over time.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</b></td>\n   <td><b>Ratio S&amp;P vs BIDU consensus</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>1.15</td>\n   <td>1.01</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>10</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.32</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.56</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15</td>\n   <td>1.52</td>\n   <td>2.42</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20</td>\n   <td>1.75</td>\n   <td>3.76</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25</td>\n   <td>2.01</td>\n   <td>5.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>30</b></td>\n   <td><b>2.31</b></td>\n   <td><b>9.03</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>35</td>\n   <td>2.66</td>\n   <td>14.01</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>40</td>\n   <td>3.06</td>\n   <td>21.72</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>45</td>\n   <td>3.52</td>\n   <td>33.67</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>50</b></td>\n   <td><b>4.05</b></td>\n   <td><b>52.21</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Over the long term, the aristocrats are expected to quadruple the S&amp;P 500's wealth compounding. Baidu could potentially deliver 52X as much wealth as the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>Is Baidu likely to grow 17.5% for 50 years? Probably not. But even if it can deliver just 10 to 20 years of hyper-growth, when combined with its attractive current valuation, that's worthy of a small initial investment in my book.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Profile: Why Baidu Isn't Right For Everyone</b></p>\n<p>There are no risk-free companies and no company is right for everyone. You have to be comfortable with the fundamental risk profile.</p>\n<p><b>Fundamental Risk Summary</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n We think Baidu faces high levels of risk, given intense competition along with questions as to whether its AI-related investment will generate satisfactory returns.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Though Baidu is the largest search engine in China, it is competing with the other two Internet giants, Tencent and Alibaba, and Google’s potential return to the Chinese search market is also a threat.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Regarding the search engine business, Tencent invested in Sogou, and Alibaba acquired UC Web, which owns a mobile search engine, Shenma. Competition has extended to each key area of mobile Internet usage, such as navigation, O2O services, online video services, and so on. Baidu’s margins have been significantly dragged down by aggressive spending in video content and O2O marketing but recovered to 18.5% in 2017 from 14.2% in 2016 as Baidu divested margin-dilutive businesses.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The major Internet companies in China have been investing in AI-related business, such as cloud computing, voice and image recognition, and autonomously driven cars. At the current stage,\n <b>it is difficult to predict whether Baidu will be the final winner in AI and whether the returns will reward its investment.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n In addition, regulatory risk is a concern. Following the Wei Zexi incident in early 2016, Chinese authorities launched new regulations for online search and advertising, which clearly defined paid search results as advertising. These regulations took effect on Sept. 1, 2016. Given stricter standards for online advertisers, Baidu’s online marketing services revenue growth declined to 1% in 2016. If the local authorities release more policies regarding Internet business, such as online advertising and online finance, Baidu’s revenue could be negatively affected.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Since 2017, Baidu has discontinued the disclosure of MAUs for its mobile search and mobile maps, which is possibly due to weaker numbers.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU's pivot into the technology of the future is potentially like Satya Nadella taking MSFT into the pure cloud-driven strategy.</p>\n<p>Or it could be like IBM's Watson-based flaying, major promise but poor execution over time.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu has the urgency to strengthen its mobile business because it has not developed another industry-leading business other than its mobile search app for years.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu’s share of mobile time spend reduced to 6.9% in March 2019 from 7.3% year over year. Baidu positions its flagship Baidu app (173 million daily average users in March 2019) as a \"super\" app that can serve a wide range of users' needs, such as reading, watching videos, shopping, transportation tickets, food services, and so on, but we believe the app is less of a super app compared with Tencent’s Wechat (1.1 billion monthly average users).\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n It has copied the strategies of its peers by launching a mini-program (181 million MAU in March 2019) and short video apps (sevenfold year over year increase to 98 million MAU in March 2019 as per Questmobile).\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>Baidu has struggled more than most Chinese tech giants to pivot and adapt to the disruption risk that is ever-present in this industry.</p>\n<blockquote>\n We have not factored in the meaningful commercialization of Baidu’s AI-based services, such as voice assistant platform DuerOS, autonomous driving platform Apollo and artificial intelligence cloud services.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Search is driven by an artificial intelligence-powered algorithm, giving Baidu a good foundation in this segment.</b>Baidu is also\n <b>one of the largest and earliest companies to start AI investments in China.</b>Currently, Baidu uses AI to recommend feeds to the app’s users to generate advertising revenue.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n IQiyi, Baidu’s online video platform, has been a key growth driver stemming from increasing willingness to pay for premium content in China and continuous advertising demand on&nbsp;\n <b>iQiyi. It accounted for 29% of Baidu’s revenue in the first quarter of 2019.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n In the near term, Baidu will invest heavily in its mobile business in terms of sales and marketing, and traffic acquisition. While meaningful monetization is uncertain, we expect Baidu to increase or maintain its research and development expenditure, which is at 17% of sales in the first quarter of 2019. To fend off major competitor Tencent Video, iQiyi needs to continue to invest in premium content. Therefore, we expect Baidu’s margins to be under pressure in the near term.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>But while Baidu has made some questionable investments over the years, its current focus on AI is a logical and prudent one.</p>\n<p>Baidu's competitive advantage in AI stems from being the first mover in Chinese search. It has the most data to feed into its machine learning algorithms, though rivals like Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) are working hard to eat its lunch.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu generated 68% of its revenue during the year from its online marketing services segment, which mainly sells ads. The segment's revenue has declined year over year for&nbsp;seven straight quarters.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n That ongoing slowdown is troubling since Baidu's advertising rivals -- like&nbsp;\n <b>Tencent</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;\n <b>Bilibili --</b>both expanded&nbsp;their advertising businesses over the past year. It also indicates people are spending less time on traditional online searches and more time on other digital platforms.\" - Leo Sun,Motley Fool\n</blockquote>\n<p>In recent years, BIDU's market share in digital ads has been declining, which means unlike companies like JD, BABA, and TCEHY, it's attempting to pivot from a position of weakness, not strength.</p>\n<p>It has the resources to invest heavily and hopefully achieve the kinds of impressive growth rates analysts expect. But success is far from guaranteed.</p>\n<p>This is why I've bought a starter 3 share tracking position in Baidu.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>compared to a $10,000 position in Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>and an&nbsp;$89,000 investment into Alibaba</li>\n <li>and a&nbsp;$200,000 investment into Amazon(AMZN)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And of course, we can't forget about the risks surrounding management and governance.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Robin Yanhong Li, the founder of Baidu, has been the chairman of the board since its inception and has served as the CEO since 2004. Before that, Li worked at IDD Information Services and Infoseek in Silicon Valley, with a special focus on product development in Internet search engines. Li owned 16.4% of the company as of January 2020, and all directors and management together owned 16.5%. Jennifer Xinzhe Li stepped down as CFO in 2017 and was replaced by Herman Yu, formerly of Weibo...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu had reputational issues, with the Wei Zexi medical incident being the largest scandal, which led to a management restructuring in 2016. Three vice presidents were dismissed. Qi Lu joined Baidu in January 2017 as group president and COO but resigned in June 2018. Lu has a solid record in the U.S. technology industry, and Baidu’s financial performance substantially improved during his appointment.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n This incident once again raised the market’s concern about Baidu’s turnover of key executives, including ex-chief scientist Andrew Ng and ex-senior vice president Jin Wang. In May 2019, Baidu announced the departure of senior vice president Hailong Xiang, who had been with Baidu since 2005. His departure is believed to be a result of Baidu’s inability to develop another successful and profitable business outside of search.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The introduction of a senior management retirement plan and a young leadership development program signifies Baidu’s determination to revamp its management and reinvigorate its businesses in the new Internet era. Shen Dou leads the mobile ecosystem group now. He has a technical background and puts more focus on more user experience versus maximizing sales. There are now more interactions between the sales, commercial product team, and the user experience team, which we think is better for Baidu’s sustainability.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>Unlike the management at Tencent, which Morningstar considers \"exemplary\" or the \"deep bench\" at Alibaba, BIDU has struggled with management in recent years.</p>\n<blockquote>\n B shares, which are owned by the CEO and his affiliates, have 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares. Therefore,\n <b>Li controls 55.4% of the equity voting rights</b>&nbsp;as of January 2020.As a result, these Class B shareholders have a disproportionately large influence over key matters such as the election of directors and significant corporate transactions, including mergers and the sale of the company or assets.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU's founder and CEO controls 55% of the vote and thus is effectively king of Baidu. If shareholders don't like what management does, they have no recourse other than selling.</p>\n<p>Management isn't a poor capital allocator, but in recent years it hasn't been firing on all cylinders when it comes to pivoting to growth catalysts as easily as JD, BABA, and TCEHY have.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Some of Baidu’s acquisitions and new business developments have proved unsuccessful.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n These include the acquisition of 59% of Nuomi, a group-buying service provider, for $160 million in 2013 and the remaining stake in 2014 for an undisclosed sum, and Raven Tech for $90 million in 2017...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu’s investments in online-to-offline businesses such as deliveries and Nuomi led to its&nbsp;\n <b>operating margin declining from 26.1% in 2014 to 14.2% in 2016</b>&nbsp;but they did not gain as much scale as Meituan.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n However, we refrain from giving a Poor stewardship rating to Baidu for several reasons.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Baidu made the right decision in moving away from the O2O businesses, which led to margin improvement to 18.5% in 2017</b>and investing in mobile and AI, which we believe is sensible given that they complement its strong core search business.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Also, Baidu’s return on invested capital has been way higher than its weighted average cost of capital of 9.8% over the past 10 years.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>And of course, every investor in Chinese tech has to understand VIE regulatory risk.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Like many other Chinese Internet companies listed in overseas markets, Baidu operates under a&nbsp;\n <b>variable interest entity structure</b>&nbsp;designed to let companies bypass Chinese legal restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu's foreign investors essentially hold shares of Baidu's VIE domiciled in the Cayman Islands.\n <b>We don't expect any legal challenges to VIE structures by the Chinese government</b>&nbsp;and believe that Baidu will consider a China depositary receipt listing in the future.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n However, if the legitimacy of Baidu's related VIE is found to violate applicable law or regulation, Chinese regulatory authorities might take action, including revoking the business and operating licenses of Baidu's subsidiaries or the VIE, or discontinuing, restricting, or restructuring Baidu's operations.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has the jurisdiction to regulate VIEs,\n <b>we believe overseas investors would have limited legal rights</b>.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>VIE regulatory risk is the reason that all Chinese tech stocks are speculative, and always will be, regardless of quality (Tencent is a 12/12 speculative Ultra SWAN for this reason).</p>\n<p>How do you measure and factor in such a complex risk profile?</p>\n<p>By turning to the expert consensus.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>39 analysts that cover BIDU and collectively know it better than anyone other than management</li>\n <li>and whether or not scary headlines meaningfully alter the investment thesis</li>\n <li>2 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>3 ESG risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>44 total experts that monitor BIDU's risk profile for DK and will let us know if the thesis is weakening, strengthening or breaks</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ESG Material Financial Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p><b>Essential To Fully Understanding A Company's Overall Risk Profile Especially Chinese Tech Companies</b></p>\n<p>According to the world's best risk assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers ESG important and builds it into their safety models and ratings.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>BlackRock - #1 asset manager in the world</p></li>\n <li><p>MSCI - #1 indexing giant</p></li>\n <li><p>Morningstar</p></li>\n <li><p>Reuters'/Refinitiv</p></li>\n <li><p>ISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) - #1 corporate proxy firm on earth</p></li>\n <li><p>S&amp;P</p></li>\n <li><p>Fitch</p></li>\n <li><p>Moody's</p></li>\n <li><p>DBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)</p></li>\n <li><p>AM Best (insurance industry rating agency)</p></li>\n <li><p>Bank of America - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch</p></li>\n <li><p>Bloomberg</p></li>\n <li><p>FactSet Research</p></li>\n <li>State Street - one of the largest custodial banks on earth</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n</ul>\n<blockquote>\n Companies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n <b>fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.</b>\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\n<p>Bank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Punchline: higher ROE, lower risk &amp; lower cost of capital</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see&nbsp;\n <b>higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a&nbsp;\n <b>~20% premium on P/E</b>&nbsp;on an overall and sector-neutral basis.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n <b>higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/E and P/BV.</b>\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\n<p>ESG isn't about political correctness, it's about sound business practices and maximizing long-term profits by avoiding blowing up companies in the short to medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Consensus ESG Risk Rating</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating Agency</b></td>\n   <td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>MSCI</td>\n   <td>54.0%</td>\n   <td><p>BB Below-Average</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n   <td>40.2%</td>\n   <td><p>24.4/100 Medium Risk</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv (Combined ESG Rating)</td>\n   <td>52.6%</td>\n   <td>Satisfactory</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>S&amp;P</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Consensus</b></td>\n   <td><b>48.9%</b></td>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)</i></p>\n<p>According to Morningstar, MSCI, and Reuter's BIDU's overall handling of its long-term financial ESG risk is average, in the 49th percentile.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>which is actually the highest ESG score of any of the big China tech stocks</li>\n <li>ESG investors probably want to avoid Chinese companies</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afa54b995a935d581ed79c58fb5d4920\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"491\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464e286a82c2e31d4b5bc2a67525beb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0b24c0262471afee43fa88dfe8da44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>(Source: MSCI)</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies tend to score poorly on ESG due to governance issues.</p>\n<p>But note that BIDU used to be rated CCC very poor and has seen two rating upgrades in two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81242ba4340325a61c591a15f1e0aed7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(Source: BIDU IR)</span></p>\n<p>In recent years BIDU did establish an ESG committee that may explain the improvement in ESG risk scores.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01d6eec0412fa9351dcb8716bbbbc1a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>(Source: BIDU IR)</span></p>\n<blockquote>\n To enhance the integrity of mobile information and continue to be a leader in AI, we devote time and attention to the needs and demands of stakeholders, including suppliers, partners, governments, social institutions, users, employees, communities, and the environment itself.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We actively explore low carbon operations, sustainable economic indicators, supply chain management, intellectual property, technological innovation, compliance, data privacy, information security, user experience, personnel training, employee rights, and community engagement.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We aim to fully integrate an ESG philosophy and standards into our management, solve social problems with technology, leverage our corporate strength and innovation capability, and contribute long-term, sustainable value to stakeholders and the human community at large.\" - BIDU ESG mission statement\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU is talking the talk, and apparently beginning to walk the walk as well when it comes to managing long-term risk.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5588fc730d2ccc5631369a46ea7bdd1b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3f779db4dbecb7bcc0e0880b6f4ae3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"></p>\n<p>Morningstar rates BIDU below average compared to its peers, but on par with the likes of Spotify, Snap, and MercadoLibre. In fact, Morningstar considers BIDU's ESG risk to be in the top 36% of all companies it rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea303ae18b648b1beee3ba4bb69b599c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)</span></p>\n<p>Reuters/Refinitv is the most robust ESG model we have access to. Over 450 metrics in total make up that score.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>BIDU scores rather poorly on governance and environmental issues</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The bottom line is that all companies have complex risk profiles that need to be considered before investing.</p>\n<p>The DK Safety and quality model don't ignore any risk, and BIDU's risks are firmly baked into its speculative blue-chip rating.</p>\n<p>A 32% margin of safety compensates us appropriately for all of the company's risks, and what could go wrong in the future.</p>\n<p>However, more risk-intolerant investors will want to avoid BIDU and Chinese companies in general.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line: It's Time To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful About Baidu</b></p>\n<p>In this highly overvalued market, it's easy to throw up your hands and shout \"everything is expensive and it's dangerous to buy any stock.\"</p>\n<p>While there are many speculative bubbles that could destroy your retirement dreams, there are ALWAYS great blue-chip bargains available.</p>\n<p>Baidu is one of those potentially exceptional long-term opportunities right now. Its 40% bear market, partially created by forced institutional margin call selling, allows anyone comfortable with its risk profile to buy the Google of China at a 32% margin of safety.</p>\n<p>Is Baidu speculative? Sure, all Chinese tech stocks are. Is it worth risking a small amount of discretionary savings to see whether Baidu can deliver on its AI/Driverless car/Streaming plans?</p>\n<p>I think so. If Baidu lives up to expectations, then it could potentially double within three years and almost triple within five.</p>\n<p>Barring the most extreme stock market bubble in history, one that surpasses the tech mania of the late '90s, there is no chance the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq will even come close.</p>\n<p>And to achieve such returns Baidu doesn't have to fly off into a speculative bubble. It merely has to return to fair value and grow at the impressive rates analysts expect and it has delivered in the past.</p>\n<p>I can't tell you what Baidu's price will do over the next year. I can tell you that the 65% upside analysts expect over the next 12 months is 100% fundamentally justified.</p>\n<p>For those comfortable with the complex risk profile inherent to Chinese tech stocks, a small position in Baidu at some of the best valuations in years is a reasonable and prudent decision.</p>\n<p>Basically, it's time to be greedy when others are fearful about the Google of China.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 12:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1121605010","content_text":"Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.\nFortunately, whatever your goals, yield, value, growth, or total returns, something great is always on sale if you know where to look.\nBaidu is the Google of China, and planning on increasing spending by 30% annually over the coming years, focusing on AI, driverless cars, and streaming.\nIn recent weeks it plunged 40%, partially due to forced hedge fund margin call selling. This creates a potentially exceptional opportunity to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" about this speculative hyper-growth blue-chip.\nI recently bought a starter position in Baidu, because it's 31% undervalued and analysts think it could double in the next three years, and almost triple over the next five. For anyone comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants, Baidu is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today.\n\nPhoto by DNY59/iStock via Getty Images\nOver seven years as an analyst I've studied the greatest investors in history, to see what strategies made them legends.\nGreatest Investors In History: Masters Of Financial Science\n\n\n\n\nName\nReturns\nTime Horizon\nMost Famous For\n\n\nJim Simmons (Co-Founder Renaissance Technologies)\n71.8% CAGR\n1994 to 2014 (best investing record ever recorded)\nPure Quant Based Investing\n\n\nJoel Greenblatt\n40% CAGR\n21 years at Gotham Capital\n\"Above-Average Quality Companies At Below-Average Prices\"\n\n\nPeter Lynch\n29.2% CAGR at Fidelity's Magellan Fund\n1977 to 1990 (13 years)\n\"Growth At A Reasonable Price\"\n\n\nBill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust 1990 to 2006)\n22.8% CAGR and beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years\n16 years\n\n\nWarren Buffett\n20.8% CAGR at Berkshire\n55 Years\nGreedy when others are fearful\n\n\nBenjamin Graham\n20% CAGR vs 12% S&P 500\n1934 to 1956 (22 years)\nMargin of Safety\n\n\nEdward Thorp\n20+% CAGR\nover 30 years\ninvented card counting,pure statistically-based investing\n\n\nCharlie Munger\n19.80%\n1962 to 1975\nWonderful companies at fair prices\n\n\nHoward Marks\n19% CAGR\nSince 1995\nValuation Mean Reversion\n\n\nAnne Scheiber\n18.3% CAGR\n50 years\nTurned $5K into $22 million with no formal training, purely withtax-efficient buy and hold blue-chip investing.\n\n\nJohn Templeton\n300% from 1939 to 1943, 15.8% CAGR from 1954 to 1992\n38 years\nMarket Cycles\n\n\nCarl Icahn\n14.6% CAGR vs 5.6% S&P 500\n2001 to 2016 (15 Years)\n\n\nDavid Swenson\n13.9% CAGR at Yale's Endowment (includes bonds and alternative assets) vs 10.7% S&P 500\n30 years\nAlternative Asset Allocation\n\n\nGeraldine Weiss\n11.2% vs 9.8% S&P 500\n37 years\nBest risk-adjusted track recordof any newsletter over 30 years according to Hubbert Financial Digest, popularizeddividend yield theory(the only strategy she employed)\n\n\n\nCombining these lessons, along with decades of market studies from leading research institutions and blue-chip analyst firms, I've determined that there are six fundamentals that over the long term will make you rich (assuming you have discretionary savings to invest of course).\n\nPortfolio risk-management\nsafety\nquality\nyield\ngrowth\nand value\n\nWhen combined with patience, time, and discipline, these are what made the greatest investors in history the legends they are today.\nYou and I may never match the returns of the legends, but if we practice disciplined financial science we can avoid costly mistakes, and focus on the highest probability/low-risk blue-chips.\n\n It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.\" - Charlie Munger\n\nThese are the \"consistently not stupid\" decisions that made Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett so successful.\nToday I want to explain why I've recently opened a starter tracking position in speculative hyper-growth blue-chip Baidu (BIDU).\n\nAll Chinese tech giants are suffering a bear market right now. But notice how Baidu recently fell 40% in a matter of weeks.\n\n Baidu was also held by now-infamous hedge fund Archegos Capital Management at that time, which blew up during the same week. When the highly levered Archegos was unable to meet a margin call, banks seized Archegos' assets, including Baidu, and sold them off in massive blocks, accelerating Baidu's plunge.\" -Motley Fool\n\nInstitutional forced selling is one of the best opportunities for prudent long-term investors to buy the world's highest quality companies at mouth-watering prices.\n\nLowe's (LOW) and Realty Income (O) both plunged 25% on March 16th, due to institutional forced selling.\nIn other words, when hedge funds get margin calls, they become the ultimate dumb money. Taking the other side of those trades can be the way to earn Buffett-like returns, through buying and holding blue-chip investing.\nSo let me explain the four reasons why I consider it time to get greedy when others are fearful on Baidu.\n\n Today I buy what others won't, so tomorrow I earn returns others can't.\"\n\n\n  - Paraphrase of Jerry Rice\n\nReason 1: A Speculative Blue-Chip Quality Company\nAccording to the 2017 studyDo Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business 52% of all stocks, lose money over time.\nThis study looked at 26,000 companies from 1926 to 2016 and found that about 12% went to zero.\n\n(Source: Bessembinder et al)\nFrom 1926 to 2016 over 3,000 US companies listed on US exchanges went bankrupt. 1,100 or about 4%, delivered 100% of net positive returns. Just 48% of stocks delivered positive returns.\nIn other words, safety and quality are what can help you avoid the value traps that don't make any money or lose all of your savings.\nThe Dividend Kings quality scores factor in 143 fundamental metrics covering\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nOur model actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by eight rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nEvery metric was selected based on\n\ndecades of empirical data\nthe experience of the greatest investors in history\neight rating agencies\nand what blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to a company's long-term success.\n\nBaidu's quality is 9/12 speculative blue-chip, meaning I recommend a 2.5% max risk cap position sizing.\nDividend Kings Quality Rating System\n\n\n\n\nQuality Score\nMeaning\nMax Invested Capital Risk Recommendation\nMargin Of Safety Potentially Good Buy\nStrong Buy\nVery Strong Buy\nUltra-Value Buy\n\n\n3\nTerrible, Very High Long-Term Bankruptcy Risk\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n4\nVery Poor\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n5\nPoor\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n6\nBelow-Average, Fallen Angels (very speculative)\n1%\n45%\n55%\n65%\n75%\n\n\n7\nAverage (Relative to S&P 500)\n2.5%\n35%\n45%\n55%\n65%\n\n\n8\nAbove-Average\n5% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n45% to 50%\n55% to 60%\n\n\n9\nBlue-Chip\n7% (unlessspeculativethen2.5%)\n20% to25%\n30% to35%\n40% to45%\n50% to55%\n\n\n10\nSWAN (a higher caliber of Blue-Chip)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n15% to 20%\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n45% to 50%\n\n\n11\nSuper SWAN (exceptionally dependable blue-chips)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n10% to 15%\n20% to 25%\n30% to 35%\n40% to 45%\n\n\n12\nUltra SWAN (as close to perfect companies as exist)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n5% to 10%\n15% to 20%\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n\n\n\nWhat exactly makes Baidu a speculative blue-chip?\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (75 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (very unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (unsafe average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nBIDU\n76%\nA stable rating from Fitch, A3 (A- equivalent) stable rating Moody's\n0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n58%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n31% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n32% to 70%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n71% to 80%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n81% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nBIDU\n67%\nAbove-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\n\nBIDU\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n76%\n4/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n67%\n2/4\n\n\nTotal\n73%\n9/12 Speculative Blue-Chip\n\n\n\nBaidu is the 245th Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 495) = 49th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated at the end of each day, sorted by overall quality score\n\ngreen = potentially good buy or better\nblue = potentially reasonable buy\nyellow = hold\nred = potential trim/sell\n\nBIDU's 73% quality score means it's the 245th highest quality company on the DK 500 Master List. This list includes the world's highest quality companies including\n\nall dividend champions\nall dividend aristocrats\nall dividend kings\nall 12/12 Ultra SWANs (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street, think wide moat aristocrats)\nnumerous global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\n\nBIDU is about average quality compared to the world's elite companies and similar in quality to such 9/12 blue-chips and, 10/12 SWANs, as\n\nQualcomm (QCOM)\nBecton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) - dividend aristocrat\nW. P. Carey (WPC)\nSonoco Products (SON) - dividend champion\nH.B. Fuller (FUL) - dividend king\nMetLife (MET)\nDigital Realty Trust (DLR)\nLeggett & Platt (LEG) - dividend aristocrat\nV.F. Corp (VFC) - dividend aristocrat\nBank of New York Mellon (BK)\n\nBaidu has a strong cash-rich balance sheet, though it is taking on extra leverage in order to fund its ambitious growth efforts.\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nIncluding leasing expenses, BIDU has 2X as much cash as debt.\nFitch and Moody's rate Baidu A stable and A3 (A- equivalent) stable outlooks, indicating 0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk.\nAnalysts expect much higher spending in the short-term to cause leverage to increase, though rating agencies don't expect this to be permanent.\nThe key safety ratios with Baidu are the F, Z, and M scores, advanced accounting ratios created by leading research institutions that use asset ratios scanned from quarterly filings.\n\nF-score measures short-term bankruptcy risk\nZ-score measures 2-year bankruptcy risk (with 84% to 92% historical accuracy)\nM-score measures accounting fraud risk (with 76% historical accuracy)\n\n7/9 is very safe on the F-score = very low short-term bankruptcy risk.\n3.59 vs 3+ very safe and 9.51 historical, confirms the A-credit ratings and low long-term risk of losing all your money.\nAnd the M-score of -2.42 indicates a significantly less than 17.5% probability that Baidu is cooking its books.\n\n(Source: Gurufocus)\nBIDU's historically unsafe M-score has been improving and became safe at the end of 2014 and has remained so for the last seven years.\n\nits safety and quality score still get dinged though because we factor in every important metric so we don't miss any warning signs\n\nThe M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching accounting fraud and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting.\nCombined with its credit ratings and risk ratings from 5 different rating agencies, plus its auditors, I can say with relatively high confidence that Baidu is not the next Luckin Coffee.\nQuality is a proven alpha factor, one of seven that beats the market over the long term.\n\nOn Wall Street, profitability over time is the most accurate proxy for quality.\n\ncredit ratings are one of the best qualitative quality proxies\n\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nBaidu's profitability is historically in the top 20% of its peers, confirming a wide and stable moat.\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Interactive Media Companies More Profitable Than BIDU (Out of 543)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n67.35\n177\n\n\nNet Margin\n81.26\n102\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n67.86\n175\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n68.47\n171\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n69.61\n165\n\n\nAverage\n70.91\n158\n\n\n\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nOver the last year, increased growth spending has reduced profitability to the top 29% of peers, though that's expected to recover in the future.\n\nfor example, returns on equity are expected to rise 10% by 2024\n\nJoel Greenblatt defined quality by return on capital, his gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\n\noperating income (EBIT)/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business for a year)\n\nGreenblatt's entire legendary track record, 40% annual returns for 21 years, was done by combining high ROC with low valuations.\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nEven with heavy growth spending in recent years, Baidu's returns on capital are very impressive.\nThe average Master List company has 88% ROC.\nThe average aristocrat 83%.\nThe average Ultra SWAN 87%.\nOver the past year, BIDU's ROC has been 103% and in Q4 it was 95%.\nAnalysts expect that in the next few years, ROC will revert back to its historical 205%.\nA level of profitability that, according to Joel Greenblatt, would make BIDU one of the highest quality companies in the world.\nBaidu's future growth is expected to come from aggressive investments into driverless cars (long-term) and AI and streaming in the short and medium term.\nBaidu Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$2,792\n$3,016\n$993\n$4,009\n$16,548\n24.23%\n\n\n2021\n$3,574\n$3,554\n$1,893\n$5,447\n$19,517\n27.91%\n\n\n2022\n$3,974\n$4,062\n$2,220\n$6,282\n$22,235\n28.25%\n\n\n2023\n$5,049\n$5,858\n$2,719\n$8,577\n$25,258\n33.96%\n\n\n2024\nNA\nNA\n$1,504\nNA\n$30,071\nNA\n\n\n2025\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n21.83%\n24.77%\n10.94%\n28.85%\n16.10%\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHistorically Baidu spends about 17% of its revenue on growth. By 2023 that's expected to double.\nTotal growth spending is expected to grow at almost 30% annually for the next three years.\nBaidu Consensus Profit Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$16,548\n$2,106\n$4,251\n$2,216\n$3,473\n\n\n2021\n$19,517\n$3,947\n$4,734\n$2,629\n$2,760\n\n\n2022\n$22,235\n$5,013\n$5,812\n$3,400\n$3,381\n\n\n2023\n$25,258\n$5,854\n$6,730\n$4,163\n$4,226\n\n\n2024\n$30,071\n$7,421\nNA\n$6,195\n$5,268\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n16.10%\n37.01%\n16.55%\n29.31%\n10.98%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nManagement's guidance, which is the basis for these consensus forecasts, is for strong revenue growth. Net margins are expected to compress but cash flows are expected to soar.\nFree cash flow, the ultimate source of all intrinsic value according to Ben Graham and Warren Buffett, is expected to more than triple by 2024.\nBaidu Consensus Margin Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n12.7%\n25.7%\n13.4%\n21.0%\n\n\n2021\n20.2%\n24.3%\n13.5%\n14.1%\n\n\n2022\n22.5%\n26.1%\n15.3%\n15.2%\n\n\n2023\n23.2%\n26.6%\n16.5%\n16.7%\n\n\n2024\n24.7%\nNA\n20.6%\n17.5%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n18.01%\n1.23%\n11.37%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBaidu's profitability is ultimately expected to improve, though net margins won't until its major growth initiatives are over.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU ended 2020 with $5.6 billion in cash, and that's expected to rise to $22 billion by 2023, and potentially nearly $60 billion by 2024.\nThat may not be as impressive as some tech companies ($601 billion by 2026 for Amazon), but it does mean that Baidu's war chest and financial flexibility to pivot towards AI, driverless cars, and streaming will grow significantly in future years.\nBaidu Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Actual Growth\n2021 consensus growth\n2022 consensus growth\n2023 consensus growth\n\n\nEPS\n31%\n7%\n18%\n16%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n124%\n22%\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n-14%\n59%\n31%\n7%\n\n\nFree cash flow\n96%\n85%\n22%\nNA\n\n\nEBITDA\n-18%\n53%\n27%\n24%\n\n\nEBIT (operating income)\n130%\n26%\n26%\n19%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIn the next few years, Baidu's growth efforts are expected to result in strong growth. But what's attracted me to the Google of China, is that this hyper-growth is expected to continue for many years to come.\nReason 2: Long-Term Hyper-Growth Potential\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU's AI, streaming, and driverless car investments are showing up in \"other services\" and that revenue is expected to grow almost 50% in 3 years.\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\n16.0% to 17.5% long-term growth consensus range\n6% to 28% growth consensus range adjusted for historical margin of error\n\n\nThe margins of error on BIDU forecasts are very wide. 33% of the time it grows much faster than expected, 33% of the time much slower, and 33% of the about as fast as expected.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade (excluding outliers) are 60% to the downside, 55% to the upside\nthe long-term growth consensus range: 16% to 18% CAGR\nthe margin of error adjusted long-term analyst growth consensus range: 6% to 28% CAGR\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU's historical growth is from -9% to 52%. So relatively high growth uncertainty, more so than most tech blue-chips.\n\nand thus the $650 investment vs $10K in GOOG, $89K in BABA, and $200K in Amazon\n\nHowever, analysts expect growth to be similar to the 20% growth of the last decade.\nAnd at today's high margin of safety, we're likely getting a good deal to compensate for BIDU's growth uncertainty and complex risk profile.\nReason 3: Highly Attractive Valuation\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU growing at the rates analysts expect in the future has historically been valued at 23X to 26X earnings.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU is currently trading at 20.4X forward earnings and 13.6X EV/EBITDA.\nEV/EBITDA is market cap + net debt/EBITDA and is Joel Greenblatt's and private equity's favorite valuation metric.\nBaidu's 13-year median EV/EBITDA is 23.2, and its trading at 13.6, implying a potential 42% discount to fair value.\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value (12-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n\n\nEarnings\n25.0\n$243.87\n$261.27\n$307.91\n$357.77\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF) - 10 yr\n23.5\n$324.46\n$394.46\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n19.9\n$202.33\n$321.22\n$420.37\n$448.64\n\n\nFree Cash Flow (11-yr)\n27.5\n$220.77\n$408.53\n$497.28\nNA\n\n\nEBITDA\n22.0\n$190.60\n$291.18\n$370.80\n$459.36\n\n\nEBIT (operating income)\n34.5\n$207.78\n$261.14\n$328.78\n$392.83\n\n\nAverage\n$224.60\n$312.71\n$373.81\n$410.40\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$215.83\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n3.91%\n30.98%\n42.26%\n47.41%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n4%\n45%\n73%\n90%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU is about 31% historically undervalued right now, meaning that if it grows as expected through 2023 and returns to fair value that's 90% upside potential.\n\n$350 is the median 12-month price target\n65% upside potential over the next 12 months according to analysts\n\nAnd that guestimate is 100% justified by fundamentals.\n\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For Speculative 9/12 Blue-Chip Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$224.60\n$312.71\n$373.81\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n25%\n$168.45\n$234.53\n$280.35\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n35%\n$145.99\n$203.26\n$242.97\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n45%\n$123.53\n$171.99\n$205.59\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n55%\n$101.07\n$140.72\n$168.21\n\n\nCurrently\n$213.41\n5%\n32%\n43%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n5%\n47%\n75%\n\n\n\nAt a 32% margin of safety, Baidu, despite all its risks, is a potentially good buy for more risk-tolerant investors.\nBut the ability to potentially enjoy monster short-term gains is just the cherry on top with Baidu.\nReason 4: Eye-Popping Long-Term Return Potential\nHere is a reasonable idea of what kind of returns you can expect buying BIDU today.\nBaidu 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIf BAIDU grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n75% total returns\n23.3% CAGR returns\nvs -1.3% CAGR S&P 500\n\nFrom its 31% discount, BIDU has the potential to outperform the 36% overvalued S&P 500 by 78% over the next three years.\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nCorporate earnings growth estimates are rising by the day. Yet the market has already priced in three years of earnings growth totaling 62% or 17.4% CAGR.\nOver the long term, BIDU's return outlook is also very strong.\nBaidu 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIf BIDU grows as analysts expect through 2026 and returns to historical fair value you could expect\n\n179% total returns\n19.8% CAGR\nvs 4.5% CAGR S&P 500\n4.4X better than the market's consensus return potential\n\nIf BIDU delivers as analysts expect, then buying today could almost triple your money in the next five years.\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nOver the long term, analysts expect\n\n0% yield + 17.5% growth = 17.5% CAGR very long-term total returns (after valuation changes cancel out)\n6% to 28% CAGR range\nvs 7.8% for the S&P and 10.8% for the dividend aristocrats\n\nBaidu Total Returns Since 2006\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nIn the last 15 years, BIDU has turned $1 into $26, adjusted for inflation, and crushed the market with 8X more wealth compounding.\nIt's expected to grow slightly slower than in the past, but the ability to potentially enjoy 17.5% hyper-growth for many years is incredibly attractive.\nBaidu Vs S&P 500 Vs Dividend Aristocrat Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Forecast: $650 Initial Investment\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.8% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n8.8% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (aristocrat consensus)\n15.5% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (BIDU consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,325.65\n$1,524.56\n$1,336.05\n\n\n10\n$1,757.34\n$2,324.28\n$2,746.21\n\n\n15\n$2,329.62\n$3,543.51\n$5,644.73\n\n\n20\n$3,088.26\n$5,402.29\n$11,602.54\n\n\n25\n$4,093.94\n$8,236.11\n$23,848.60\n\n\n30\n$5,427.13\n$12,556.45\n$49,019.95\n\n\n35\n$7,194.46\n$19,143.06\n$100,758.76\n\n\n40\n$9,537.33\n$29,184.74\n$207,106.02\n\n\n45\n$12,643.14\n$44,493.88\n$425,699.02\n\n\n50\n$16,760.36\n$67,833.58\n$875,009.10\n\n\n\nThe ability to grow 2X to 3X as fast as the S&P 500 or aristocrats creates the potential for wealth compounding on a massive scale. Look at how large my $650 initial BIDU investment can grow, assuming analysts are right and management delivers the expected growth over time.\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs BIDU consensus\n\n\n5\n1.15\n1.01\n\n\n10\n1.32\n1.56\n\n\n15\n1.52\n2.42\n\n\n20\n1.75\n3.76\n\n\n25\n2.01\n5.83\n\n\n30\n2.31\n9.03\n\n\n35\n2.66\n14.01\n\n\n40\n3.06\n21.72\n\n\n45\n3.52\n33.67\n\n\n50\n4.05\n52.21\n\n\n\nOver the long term, the aristocrats are expected to quadruple the S&P 500's wealth compounding. Baidu could potentially deliver 52X as much wealth as the S&P 500.\nIs Baidu likely to grow 17.5% for 50 years? Probably not. But even if it can deliver just 10 to 20 years of hyper-growth, when combined with its attractive current valuation, that's worthy of a small initial investment in my book.\nRisk Profile: Why Baidu Isn't Right For Everyone\nThere are no risk-free companies and no company is right for everyone. You have to be comfortable with the fundamental risk profile.\nFundamental Risk Summary\n\n We think Baidu faces high levels of risk, given intense competition along with questions as to whether its AI-related investment will generate satisfactory returns.\n\n\n Though Baidu is the largest search engine in China, it is competing with the other two Internet giants, Tencent and Alibaba, and Google’s potential return to the Chinese search market is also a threat.\n\n\n Regarding the search engine business, Tencent invested in Sogou, and Alibaba acquired UC Web, which owns a mobile search engine, Shenma. Competition has extended to each key area of mobile Internet usage, such as navigation, O2O services, online video services, and so on. Baidu’s margins have been significantly dragged down by aggressive spending in video content and O2O marketing but recovered to 18.5% in 2017 from 14.2% in 2016 as Baidu divested margin-dilutive businesses.\n\n\n The major Internet companies in China have been investing in AI-related business, such as cloud computing, voice and image recognition, and autonomously driven cars. At the current stage,\n it is difficult to predict whether Baidu will be the final winner in AI and whether the returns will reward its investment.\n\n\n In addition, regulatory risk is a concern. Following the Wei Zexi incident in early 2016, Chinese authorities launched new regulations for online search and advertising, which clearly defined paid search results as advertising. These regulations took effect on Sept. 1, 2016. Given stricter standards for online advertisers, Baidu’s online marketing services revenue growth declined to 1% in 2016. If the local authorities release more policies regarding Internet business, such as online advertising and online finance, Baidu’s revenue could be negatively affected.\n\n\n Since 2017, Baidu has discontinued the disclosure of MAUs for its mobile search and mobile maps, which is possibly due to weaker numbers.\" - Morningstar\n\nBIDU's pivot into the technology of the future is potentially like Satya Nadella taking MSFT into the pure cloud-driven strategy.\nOr it could be like IBM's Watson-based flaying, major promise but poor execution over time.\n\n Baidu has the urgency to strengthen its mobile business because it has not developed another industry-leading business other than its mobile search app for years.\n\n\n Baidu’s share of mobile time spend reduced to 6.9% in March 2019 from 7.3% year over year. Baidu positions its flagship Baidu app (173 million daily average users in March 2019) as a \"super\" app that can serve a wide range of users' needs, such as reading, watching videos, shopping, transportation tickets, food services, and so on, but we believe the app is less of a super app compared with Tencent’s Wechat (1.1 billion monthly average users).\n\n\n It has copied the strategies of its peers by launching a mini-program (181 million MAU in March 2019) and short video apps (sevenfold year over year increase to 98 million MAU in March 2019 as per Questmobile).\" - Morningstar\n\nBaidu has struggled more than most Chinese tech giants to pivot and adapt to the disruption risk that is ever-present in this industry.\n\n We have not factored in the meaningful commercialization of Baidu’s AI-based services, such as voice assistant platform DuerOS, autonomous driving platform Apollo and artificial intelligence cloud services.\n\n\nSearch is driven by an artificial intelligence-powered algorithm, giving Baidu a good foundation in this segment.Baidu is also\n one of the largest and earliest companies to start AI investments in China.Currently, Baidu uses AI to recommend feeds to the app’s users to generate advertising revenue.\n\n\n IQiyi, Baidu’s online video platform, has been a key growth driver stemming from increasing willingness to pay for premium content in China and continuous advertising demand on \n iQiyi. It accounted for 29% of Baidu’s revenue in the first quarter of 2019.\n\n\n In the near term, Baidu will invest heavily in its mobile business in terms of sales and marketing, and traffic acquisition. While meaningful monetization is uncertain, we expect Baidu to increase or maintain its research and development expenditure, which is at 17% of sales in the first quarter of 2019. To fend off major competitor Tencent Video, iQiyi needs to continue to invest in premium content. Therefore, we expect Baidu’s margins to be under pressure in the near term.\" - Morningstar\n\nBut while Baidu has made some questionable investments over the years, its current focus on AI is a logical and prudent one.\nBaidu's competitive advantage in AI stems from being the first mover in Chinese search. It has the most data to feed into its machine learning algorithms, though rivals like Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) are working hard to eat its lunch.\n\n Baidu generated 68% of its revenue during the year from its online marketing services segment, which mainly sells ads. The segment's revenue has declined year over year for seven straight quarters.\n\n\n That ongoing slowdown is troubling since Baidu's advertising rivals -- like \n Tencent and \n Bilibili --both expanded their advertising businesses over the past year. It also indicates people are spending less time on traditional online searches and more time on other digital platforms.\" - Leo Sun,Motley Fool\n\nIn recent years, BIDU's market share in digital ads has been declining, which means unlike companies like JD, BABA, and TCEHY, it's attempting to pivot from a position of weakness, not strength.\nIt has the resources to invest heavily and hopefully achieve the kinds of impressive growth rates analysts expect. But success is far from guaranteed.\nThis is why I've bought a starter 3 share tracking position in Baidu.\n\ncompared to a $10,000 position in Alphabet (GOOG)\nand an $89,000 investment into Alibaba\nand a $200,000 investment into Amazon(AMZN)\n\nAnd of course, we can't forget about the risks surrounding management and governance.\n\n Robin Yanhong Li, the founder of Baidu, has been the chairman of the board since its inception and has served as the CEO since 2004. Before that, Li worked at IDD Information Services and Infoseek in Silicon Valley, with a special focus on product development in Internet search engines. Li owned 16.4% of the company as of January 2020, and all directors and management together owned 16.5%. Jennifer Xinzhe Li stepped down as CFO in 2017 and was replaced by Herman Yu, formerly of Weibo...\n\n\n Baidu had reputational issues, with the Wei Zexi medical incident being the largest scandal, which led to a management restructuring in 2016. Three vice presidents were dismissed. Qi Lu joined Baidu in January 2017 as group president and COO but resigned in June 2018. Lu has a solid record in the U.S. technology industry, and Baidu’s financial performance substantially improved during his appointment.\n\n\n This incident once again raised the market’s concern about Baidu’s turnover of key executives, including ex-chief scientist Andrew Ng and ex-senior vice president Jin Wang. In May 2019, Baidu announced the departure of senior vice president Hailong Xiang, who had been with Baidu since 2005. His departure is believed to be a result of Baidu’s inability to develop another successful and profitable business outside of search.\n\n\n The introduction of a senior management retirement plan and a young leadership development program signifies Baidu’s determination to revamp its management and reinvigorate its businesses in the new Internet era. Shen Dou leads the mobile ecosystem group now. He has a technical background and puts more focus on more user experience versus maximizing sales. There are now more interactions between the sales, commercial product team, and the user experience team, which we think is better for Baidu’s sustainability.\" - Morningstar\n\nUnlike the management at Tencent, which Morningstar considers \"exemplary\" or the \"deep bench\" at Alibaba, BIDU has struggled with management in recent years.\n\n B shares, which are owned by the CEO and his affiliates, have 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares. Therefore,\n Li controls 55.4% of the equity voting rights as of January 2020.As a result, these Class B shareholders have a disproportionately large influence over key matters such as the election of directors and significant corporate transactions, including mergers and the sale of the company or assets.\" - Morningstar\n\nBIDU's founder and CEO controls 55% of the vote and thus is effectively king of Baidu. If shareholders don't like what management does, they have no recourse other than selling.\nManagement isn't a poor capital allocator, but in recent years it hasn't been firing on all cylinders when it comes to pivoting to growth catalysts as easily as JD, BABA, and TCEHY have.\n\n Some of Baidu’s acquisitions and new business developments have proved unsuccessful.\n\n\n These include the acquisition of 59% of Nuomi, a group-buying service provider, for $160 million in 2013 and the remaining stake in 2014 for an undisclosed sum, and Raven Tech for $90 million in 2017...\n\n\n Baidu’s investments in online-to-offline businesses such as deliveries and Nuomi led to its \n operating margin declining from 26.1% in 2014 to 14.2% in 2016 but they did not gain as much scale as Meituan.\n\n\n However, we refrain from giving a Poor stewardship rating to Baidu for several reasons.\n\n\nBaidu made the right decision in moving away from the O2O businesses, which led to margin improvement to 18.5% in 2017and investing in mobile and AI, which we believe is sensible given that they complement its strong core search business.\n\n\n Also, Baidu’s return on invested capital has been way higher than its weighted average cost of capital of 9.8% over the past 10 years.\" - Morningstar\n\nAnd of course, every investor in Chinese tech has to understand VIE regulatory risk.\n\n Like many other Chinese Internet companies listed in overseas markets, Baidu operates under a \n variable interest entity structure designed to let companies bypass Chinese legal restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors.\n\n\n Baidu's foreign investors essentially hold shares of Baidu's VIE domiciled in the Cayman Islands.\n We don't expect any legal challenges to VIE structures by the Chinese government and believe that Baidu will consider a China depositary receipt listing in the future.\n\n\n However, if the legitimacy of Baidu's related VIE is found to violate applicable law or regulation, Chinese regulatory authorities might take action, including revoking the business and operating licenses of Baidu's subsidiaries or the VIE, or discontinuing, restricting, or restructuring Baidu's operations.\n\n\n Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has the jurisdiction to regulate VIEs,\n we believe overseas investors would have limited legal rights.\" - Morningstar\n\nVIE regulatory risk is the reason that all Chinese tech stocks are speculative, and always will be, regardless of quality (Tencent is a 12/12 speculative Ultra SWAN for this reason).\nHow do you measure and factor in such a complex risk profile?\nBy turning to the expert consensus.\n\n39 analysts that cover BIDU and collectively know it better than anyone other than management\nand whether or not scary headlines meaningfully alter the investment thesis\n2 credit rating agencies\n3 ESG risk rating agencies\n44 total experts that monitor BIDU's risk profile for DK and will let us know if the thesis is weakening, strengthening or breaks\n\nESG Material Financial Risk Analysis\nEssential To Fully Understanding A Company's Overall Risk Profile Especially Chinese Tech Companies\nAccording to the world's best risk assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers ESG important and builds it into their safety models and ratings.\n\nBlackRock - #1 asset manager in the world\nMSCI - #1 indexing giant\nMorningstar\nReuters'/Refinitiv\nISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) - #1 corporate proxy firm on earth\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)\nAM Best (insurance industry rating agency)\nBank of America - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nState Street - one of the largest custodial banks on earth\nWells Fargo - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch\nNAREIT\n\n\n Companies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\nPunchline: higher ROE, lower risk & lower cost of capital\n\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see \n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.\n\n\n Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a \n ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.\n\n\n Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/E and P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nESG isn't about political correctness, it's about sound business practices and maximizing long-term profits by avoiding blowing up companies in the short to medium-term.\nBaidu Consensus ESG Risk Rating\n\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n54.0%\nBB Below-Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n40.2%\n24.4/100 Medium Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv (Combined ESG Rating)\n52.6%\nSatisfactory\n\n\nS&P\nNA\nNA\n\n\nConsensus\n48.9%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nAccording to Morningstar, MSCI, and Reuter's BIDU's overall handling of its long-term financial ESG risk is average, in the 49th percentile.\n\nwhich is actually the highest ESG score of any of the big China tech stocks\nESG investors probably want to avoid Chinese companies\n\n\n(Source: MSCI)\nChinese companies tend to score poorly on ESG due to governance issues.\nBut note that BIDU used to be rated CCC very poor and has seen two rating upgrades in two years.\n(Source: BIDU IR)\nIn recent years BIDU did establish an ESG committee that may explain the improvement in ESG risk scores.\n(Source: BIDU IR)\n\n To enhance the integrity of mobile information and continue to be a leader in AI, we devote time and attention to the needs and demands of stakeholders, including suppliers, partners, governments, social institutions, users, employees, communities, and the environment itself.\n\n\n We actively explore low carbon operations, sustainable economic indicators, supply chain management, intellectual property, technological innovation, compliance, data privacy, information security, user experience, personnel training, employee rights, and community engagement.\n\n\n We aim to fully integrate an ESG philosophy and standards into our management, solve social problems with technology, leverage our corporate strength and innovation capability, and contribute long-term, sustainable value to stakeholders and the human community at large.\" - BIDU ESG mission statement\n\nBIDU is talking the talk, and apparently beginning to walk the walk as well when it comes to managing long-term risk.\n\nMorningstar rates BIDU below average compared to its peers, but on par with the likes of Spotify, Snap, and MercadoLibre. In fact, Morningstar considers BIDU's ESG risk to be in the top 36% of all companies it rates.\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nReuters/Refinitv is the most robust ESG model we have access to. Over 450 metrics in total make up that score.\n\nBIDU scores rather poorly on governance and environmental issues\n\nThe bottom line is that all companies have complex risk profiles that need to be considered before investing.\nThe DK Safety and quality model don't ignore any risk, and BIDU's risks are firmly baked into its speculative blue-chip rating.\nA 32% margin of safety compensates us appropriately for all of the company's risks, and what could go wrong in the future.\nHowever, more risk-intolerant investors will want to avoid BIDU and Chinese companies in general.\nBottom Line: It's Time To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful About Baidu\nIn this highly overvalued market, it's easy to throw up your hands and shout \"everything is expensive and it's dangerous to buy any stock.\"\nWhile there are many speculative bubbles that could destroy your retirement dreams, there are ALWAYS great blue-chip bargains available.\nBaidu is one of those potentially exceptional long-term opportunities right now. Its 40% bear market, partially created by forced institutional margin call selling, allows anyone comfortable with its risk profile to buy the Google of China at a 32% margin of safety.\nIs Baidu speculative? Sure, all Chinese tech stocks are. Is it worth risking a small amount of discretionary savings to see whether Baidu can deliver on its AI/Driverless car/Streaming plans?\nI think so. If Baidu lives up to expectations, then it could potentially double within three years and almost triple within five.\nBarring the most extreme stock market bubble in history, one that surpasses the tech mania of the late '90s, there is no chance the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will even come close.\nAnd to achieve such returns Baidu doesn't have to fly off into a speculative bubble. It merely has to return to fair value and grow at the impressive rates analysts expect and it has delivered in the past.\nI can't tell you what Baidu's price will do over the next year. I can tell you that the 65% upside analysts expect over the next 12 months is 100% fundamentally justified.\nFor those comfortable with the complex risk profile inherent to Chinese tech stocks, a small position in Baidu at some of the best valuations in years is a reasonable and prudent decision.\nBasically, it's time to be greedy when others are fearful about the Google of China.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108681360,"gmtCreate":1620018581450,"gmtModify":1704337463364,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108681360","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135819410?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 07:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车",".DJI":"道琼斯","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PYPL":"PayPal",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBER":"优步","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":199205571,"gmtCreate":1620704424493,"gmtModify":1704347059259,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Er","listText":"Er","text":"Er","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/199205571","repostId":"2134652431","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108214049,"gmtCreate":1620029866781,"gmtModify":1704337590477,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108214049","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135819410?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 07:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车",".DJI":"道琼斯","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PYPL":"PayPal",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBER":"优步","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123255463,"gmtCreate":1624426439452,"gmtModify":1703836336080,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah","listText":"Wah","text":"Wah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123255463","repostId":"1155839444","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155839444","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"港股挖掘机将每天为您推送最具价值的港股、美股、A股投资资讯！第一时间把握全球政策动向，先人一步了解主流资金流向，监测主力行踪，解读公司公告，追踪活跃个股，让您畅享投资财富盛宴!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"智通财经APP","id":"12","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab"},"pubTimestamp":1624425127,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155839444?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 13:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"重磅！李佳琦、薇娅都准备携自家公司上市？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155839444","media":"智通财经APP","summary":"当下火热的直播电商市场竞争加剧，中国两位最热门网红背后的孵化器正在为首次公开募股做准备。\n知情人士透露，“口红一哥”李佳琦背后的上海经纪公司美腕正在招聘一位首席财务官，为可能的美国上市做准备。其中一位","content":"<p>当下火热的直播电商市场竞争加剧，中国两位最热门网红背后的孵化器正在为首次公开募股做准备。</p>\n<p>知情人士透露，“口红一哥”李佳琦背后的上海经纪公司美腕正在招聘一位首席财务官，为可能的美国上市做准备。其中一位知情人士说，合鲸资本和德同资本投资的这家公司考虑上市融资3亿美元。</p>\n<p>此外，“带货一姐”薇娅所在的杭州谦寻文化也在计划IPO。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8e68a0560351a7b4c498274d320118f\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>1、</b><b><b>李佳琦的美腕是什么来头？</b></b></p>\n<p>李佳琦所属的美腕是否真的会谋求海外上市？其实目前并未实锤。</p>\n<p>6月23日，消息称中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美腕正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。不过有媒体向美腕方面求证，对方回应称有关报道为不实消息。</p>\n<p>2021年5月4日，李佳琦在接受《每日经济新闻》采访时，自称是“美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司合伙人”。</p>\n<p>美腕在天眼查的介绍为“美ONE是一家网红、艺人以及模特的线上服务平台,旨在为用户提供拍摄、表演、主播、电商分销等多种合作机会。”</p>\n<p>根据天眼查：美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司实际控制人为戚振波。</p>\n<p>2017年11月，宁波镁麒电子商务有限公司成立，李佳琦占股49%，美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司占股51%。宁波镁麒电子商务有限公司最终受益人为李佳琦。</p>\n<p>2019年3月，上海妆佳电子商务有限公司成立，美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司占股51%，李佳琦占股49%，上海妆佳电子商务有限公司最终受益人为李佳琦。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a588577d3418e0e61438ede63e904b51\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，2021年3月26日，北京美奈咨询管理有限公司成立，法定代表人为戚振波，该公司由戚振波、李佳琦、付鹏等人员共同持股，其中李佳琦持股比例约38%，为第二大股东。</p>\n<p>前述戚振波为美腕的实际控制人。值得注意的是，付鹏曾是李佳琦直播间的助理。2020年5月6日，李佳琦在直播间宣布付鹏转型幕后，不再出现在镜头中，付鹏将成为公司合伙人，李佳琦还调侃以后要叫他一声“付总”。</p>\n<p>公开信息显示，公司成立于2014年12月22日。出资方包括阿里资本、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>创投以及胡海泉这样的明星投资人。</p>\n<p>2015年12月16日，美腕获得天使轮融资，投资方为湖畔山南资本和双龙航软创投。</p>\n<p>2016年10月31日，美腕获得股权融资，投资方为双龙航软创投。</p>\n<p>2017年3月14日，美腕获得A轮融资，投资方为德同资本、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>微博基金(微创投)、合鲸资本、时尚资本、启峰资本。</p>\n<p>李佳琦曾表示，“我和美腕是一起成长起来的。一开始团队规模不大，大家有事情就一起做。后来公司不断发展，团队规模扩大，内部有了较为明确的分工。我本人更专注在直播和选品上，日常的经营管理会有其他的合伙人一起协同。”</p>\n<p>李佳琦与美腕牵手始于2016年底，当时网红机构美ONE提出“BA网红化”，随后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZM.UK\">欧莱雅</a>集团与美ONE一拍即合，尝试举办了“BA网红化”的淘宝直播项目比赛。作为BA中销冠的李佳琦获得了参赛资格，随后凭借出色的能力在比赛中脱颖而出，最终签约美ONE成为一名美妆达人。</p>\n<p>美腕一旦上市，无疑具有极大的想象空间。</p>\n<p>“李佳琦”这三个字，在资本市场已经具有相当号召力。</p>\n<p>此前，2020年1月15日，A股上市公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300336\">新文化</a>公告称，公司拟与美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司达成战略合作。次日，新文化涨停开盘，并收获5个涨停板。</p>\n<p>美腕要是上市了，还不得飞啊？</p>\n<p>不过，根据目前的公开信息，没有查询到李佳琦在美腕占有的股份，虽然李佳琦对外宣称是美腕合伙人，但实际上究竟是“合伙人”还是“打工人”，不得而知。当然，如果美腕将李佳琦受益的宁波镁麒和上海妆佳打包上市，那李佳琦的身价将暴增。</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b><b>薇娅的杭州谦寻是什么来头？</b></b></p>\n<p>跟李佳琦与美腕之间复杂不明的股权关系不同，薇娅与杭州谦寻的关系则比较明朗。杭州谦寻的大股东兼实控人正是薇娅的丈夫董海峰。谦寻是薇娅夫妇完全掌控的自家品牌。</p>\n<p>谦寻(杭州)文化传媒有限公司成立于2019年9月，董海峰不但是大股东兼实控人，还是董事长兼总经理。</p>\n<p>天眼查介绍，谦寻是新内容电商直播机构。主要业务包括孵化网红主播、短视频内容生产及投放、全域内容营销等，可为品牌定制专属推广方案。</p>\n<p>2021年5月25日，“薇娅狂欢节”在杭州举行，同步的线上直播长达7个小时。这是薇娅的“粉丝节”，今年正式升级至“薇娅狂欢节”。</p>\n<p>“狂欢节”直播开始前，董海锋对媒体介绍:“目前，谦寻旗下有40多位明星主播及达人主播。”这对于以孵化和培养主播为核心业务的MCN公司来说，人数并不多。对此,董海锋补充道:“我们不做人海战术,我们更讲究效果”。</p>\n<p>对于公司发展，董海锋表示，将公司的发展分为两个阶段,第一个阶段是2019年前，薇娅快速成长，公司同步累积了直播、运营、数据经验。得以快速搭建团队，并赋能给其他主播。进入2021年，谦寻也开启了电商主播培训营，希望把谦寻尤其是薇娅身上积累起来的经验分享给更多电商主播们，包括希望进入这个行业，或已经进入这个行业但还没有掌握优秀方法论的人。</p>\n<p>“谦寻做事的路径是先让薇娅去‘趟水’，摸清楚‘坑’和‘金子’，有了方法论之后，再赋能给第二梯队的主播。未来，谦寻可能会在更大范围上，输出给行业。”</p>\n<p>谦寻已经被VC盯上。天眼查APP显示，去年6月，谦寻（杭州）控股有限责任公司进行工商变更，新增苏州君骏德股权投资合伙企业为股东，这是君联资本旗下的一只人民币基金。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，君联资本董事总经理邵振兴此次也现身谦寻控股董事名单中。</p>\n<p>今年4月，谦寻控股再发生多项工商变更，其中投资人新增海南云锋拓海基金中心（有限合伙），持股比例显示5%。也就是说，继君联资本入场后，知名PE云锋基金也低调入股了薇娅的公司。</p>\n<p>在资本运作上，薇娅显然比李佳琦更成熟，步子迈的更大。</p>\n<p>薇娅夫妇已成立一家创投公司，开始涉足私募股权投资领域。天眼查APP显示，2021年1月28日，青岛谦喵私募基金管理有限公司成立，注册资本1000万人民币，经营范围包括私募股权投资基金管理、创业投资基金管理服务等。</p>\n<p>投资界了解到，该基金管理公司于5月10日在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">中国基金</a>业协会备案登记。通过股权穿透发现，该公司由谦寻（杭州）控股有限责任公司100%持股，其疑似实控人为薇娅丈夫董海锋，共持股近50%。</p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b><b>这些主播也在涉足资本市场</b></b></p>\n<p>处于风口浪尖的“快手一哥”辛巴在实现财富累加后成立了辛选投资，先后入股了儿童服饰上市公司起步股份、游戏公司盛讯云商等企业。</p>\n<p>另一边，王思聪前女友，网红雪梨今年4月官宣了其公司“宸帆电商”完成千万美元级B+轮融资。这是宸帆短短一个月内完成的第二轮两轮融资，掌门人雪梨也颇受投资人关注，现在她的身后站着兰馨亚洲、众源资本两家投资机构。</p>\n<p>直播电商圈之外，红人李子柒靠着自己的IP开起了螺蛳粉厂，背后的微念科技也一度成为投资人眼中的“香饽饽”，汇集了包括华兴新经济基金、众源资本、辰海资本、华映资本等十家投资机构。</p>\n<p>不过，这些网红主播探索资本市场的前辈，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUHN\">如涵控股</a>已经提前“死在沙滩上”。</p>\n<p>2019年4月3日，如涵控股头顶“中国网红制造机”的光环在纳斯达克成功IPO，发行价为12.5美元。第一代淘宝网红的张大奕是如涵控股联合创始人、CMO，她曾创下淘宝第一家“双十一”销量破亿女装店的纪录，如涵控股也被称为“中国网红第一股”。</p>\n<p>两年后的2021年4月22日，如涵控股在市值缩水七成的背景下宣布完成私有化，从美股退市。</p>\n<p>过分依赖网红个人品牌，是这些网红主播背后公司的风险。</p>\n<p>财报显示，2018~2020年间，张大奕的自营店铺收入对公司贡献的营收比重均在半数以上，这带来的副作用是，当头部红人面临重大负面新闻时，公司不得不一起承担舆论压力。2020年，张大奕负面事件发生后，如涵公告称，该事件对公司声誉、业务和ADS的交易价格产生了重大不利影响。</p>\n<p>彼时，张大奕与蒋凡传出婚外情。如涵表示，“自2020年4月以来，顶级KOL遭受负面宣传，网店产生的产品销售大幅下降”。</p>\n<p>当时，蒋凡是淘宝总裁兼天猫总裁。</p>\n<p>这一事件重创了如涵，2020年11月23日，如涵控股有限公司公布2021财年第二季度财报显示，截至9月30日，如涵控股第二财季营收2.485亿元，较去年同期下滑9％；归属于如涵控股的净亏损达3120万元，同比收窄38％。</p>\n<p>这一成绩单对比第一财季（营收2.8亿元、净利1070万元）来看，半年来由盈转亏。</p>\n<p>张大奕曾被评为第一电商网红，微博最具价值网红，可惜的是，在网红经济越来越发达的今天，昔日的第一网红张大奕却“老了”，这个“老了”并非说容颜，而是影响力、发展活力、以及带货业绩，都在严重落后了。</p>\n<p>2021年4月23日，如涵控股退市之际，有媒体根据直播电商数据分析工具胖球数据查询，张大奕近30天的带货额是5187万，与此同时，雪梨近30天的带货业绩高达10个亿，已让张大奕望尘莫及。</p>\n<p>2019年，“网红收割机”、多次创业失败的王思聪曾在朋友圈对如涵控股及网红带货的商业模式有过评价，如今来看，很有道理。</p>\n<p>王思聪指出了如涵控股的三个问题：</p>\n<p>“1、亏损。（18年毛利3亿但履约费用1亿元，营销费用1.46亿元，综合管理费用 1.3亿元，加上其它营业收入71万元，导致总运营亏损7235万元。收入是有的但是钱花的也莫名其妙，特别近1.5亿的营销费用令人费解，花这么多营销费用那 kol的意义何在；如果停掉这个营销费用业绩又会如何）</p>\n<p>2、不可复制性（签了一百多个网红，但是就一个张大奕在2017财年和2018财年以及2019财年前三季度分别占据了收入的50.8 ％、52.4 ％和53.5 ％。这是多么不健康的比例）</p>\n<p>3、如涵的网红孵化、网红电商、网红营销模式说白了没有验证成功，也没有证明出自己可以培养出新kol 。”</p>\n<p>耐人寻味的是，如涵退市之际，正是雪梨官宣其公司“宸帆电商”完成千万美元级B+轮融资之时。而雪梨，是王思聪前女友。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>重磅！李佳琦、薇娅都准备携自家公司上市？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重磅！李佳琦、薇娅都准备携自家公司上市？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/12\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/361f7f1ca0d64e919035653d64c723ab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">智通财经APP </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-23 13:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>当下火热的直播电商市场竞争加剧，中国两位最热门网红背后的孵化器正在为首次公开募股做准备。</p>\n<p>知情人士透露，“口红一哥”李佳琦背后的上海经纪公司美腕正在招聘一位首席财务官，为可能的美国上市做准备。其中一位知情人士说，合鲸资本和德同资本投资的这家公司考虑上市融资3亿美元。</p>\n<p>此外，“带货一姐”薇娅所在的杭州谦寻文化也在计划IPO。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8e68a0560351a7b4c498274d320118f\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>1、</b><b><b>李佳琦的美腕是什么来头？</b></b></p>\n<p>李佳琦所属的美腕是否真的会谋求海外上市？其实目前并未实锤。</p>\n<p>6月23日，消息称中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美腕正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。不过有媒体向美腕方面求证，对方回应称有关报道为不实消息。</p>\n<p>2021年5月4日，李佳琦在接受《每日经济新闻》采访时，自称是“美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司合伙人”。</p>\n<p>美腕在天眼查的介绍为“美ONE是一家网红、艺人以及模特的线上服务平台,旨在为用户提供拍摄、表演、主播、电商分销等多种合作机会。”</p>\n<p>根据天眼查：美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司实际控制人为戚振波。</p>\n<p>2017年11月，宁波镁麒电子商务有限公司成立，李佳琦占股49%，美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司占股51%。宁波镁麒电子商务有限公司最终受益人为李佳琦。</p>\n<p>2019年3月，上海妆佳电子商务有限公司成立，美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司占股51%，李佳琦占股49%，上海妆佳电子商务有限公司最终受益人为李佳琦。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a588577d3418e0e61438ede63e904b51\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，2021年3月26日，北京美奈咨询管理有限公司成立，法定代表人为戚振波，该公司由戚振波、李佳琦、付鹏等人员共同持股，其中李佳琦持股比例约38%，为第二大股东。</p>\n<p>前述戚振波为美腕的实际控制人。值得注意的是，付鹏曾是李佳琦直播间的助理。2020年5月6日，李佳琦在直播间宣布付鹏转型幕后，不再出现在镜头中，付鹏将成为公司合伙人，李佳琦还调侃以后要叫他一声“付总”。</p>\n<p>公开信息显示，公司成立于2014年12月22日。出资方包括阿里资本、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>创投以及胡海泉这样的明星投资人。</p>\n<p>2015年12月16日，美腕获得天使轮融资，投资方为湖畔山南资本和双龙航软创投。</p>\n<p>2016年10月31日，美腕获得股权融资，投资方为双龙航软创投。</p>\n<p>2017年3月14日，美腕获得A轮融资，投资方为德同资本、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>微博基金(微创投)、合鲸资本、时尚资本、启峰资本。</p>\n<p>李佳琦曾表示，“我和美腕是一起成长起来的。一开始团队规模不大，大家有事情就一起做。后来公司不断发展，团队规模扩大，内部有了较为明确的分工。我本人更专注在直播和选品上，日常的经营管理会有其他的合伙人一起协同。”</p>\n<p>李佳琦与美腕牵手始于2016年底，当时网红机构美ONE提出“BA网红化”，随后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NZM.UK\">欧莱雅</a>集团与美ONE一拍即合，尝试举办了“BA网红化”的淘宝直播项目比赛。作为BA中销冠的李佳琦获得了参赛资格，随后凭借出色的能力在比赛中脱颖而出，最终签约美ONE成为一名美妆达人。</p>\n<p>美腕一旦上市，无疑具有极大的想象空间。</p>\n<p>“李佳琦”这三个字，在资本市场已经具有相当号召力。</p>\n<p>此前，2020年1月15日，A股上市公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300336\">新文化</a>公告称，公司拟与美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司达成战略合作。次日，新文化涨停开盘，并收获5个涨停板。</p>\n<p>美腕要是上市了，还不得飞啊？</p>\n<p>不过，根据目前的公开信息，没有查询到李佳琦在美腕占有的股份，虽然李佳琦对外宣称是美腕合伙人，但实际上究竟是“合伙人”还是“打工人”，不得而知。当然，如果美腕将李佳琦受益的宁波镁麒和上海妆佳打包上市，那李佳琦的身价将暴增。</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b><b>薇娅的杭州谦寻是什么来头？</b></b></p>\n<p>跟李佳琦与美腕之间复杂不明的股权关系不同，薇娅与杭州谦寻的关系则比较明朗。杭州谦寻的大股东兼实控人正是薇娅的丈夫董海峰。谦寻是薇娅夫妇完全掌控的自家品牌。</p>\n<p>谦寻(杭州)文化传媒有限公司成立于2019年9月，董海峰不但是大股东兼实控人，还是董事长兼总经理。</p>\n<p>天眼查介绍，谦寻是新内容电商直播机构。主要业务包括孵化网红主播、短视频内容生产及投放、全域内容营销等，可为品牌定制专属推广方案。</p>\n<p>2021年5月25日，“薇娅狂欢节”在杭州举行，同步的线上直播长达7个小时。这是薇娅的“粉丝节”，今年正式升级至“薇娅狂欢节”。</p>\n<p>“狂欢节”直播开始前，董海锋对媒体介绍:“目前，谦寻旗下有40多位明星主播及达人主播。”这对于以孵化和培养主播为核心业务的MCN公司来说，人数并不多。对此,董海锋补充道:“我们不做人海战术,我们更讲究效果”。</p>\n<p>对于公司发展，董海锋表示，将公司的发展分为两个阶段,第一个阶段是2019年前，薇娅快速成长，公司同步累积了直播、运营、数据经验。得以快速搭建团队，并赋能给其他主播。进入2021年，谦寻也开启了电商主播培训营，希望把谦寻尤其是薇娅身上积累起来的经验分享给更多电商主播们，包括希望进入这个行业，或已经进入这个行业但还没有掌握优秀方法论的人。</p>\n<p>“谦寻做事的路径是先让薇娅去‘趟水’，摸清楚‘坑’和‘金子’，有了方法论之后，再赋能给第二梯队的主播。未来，谦寻可能会在更大范围上，输出给行业。”</p>\n<p>谦寻已经被VC盯上。天眼查APP显示，去年6月，谦寻（杭州）控股有限责任公司进行工商变更，新增苏州君骏德股权投资合伙企业为股东，这是君联资本旗下的一只人民币基金。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是，君联资本董事总经理邵振兴此次也现身谦寻控股董事名单中。</p>\n<p>今年4月，谦寻控股再发生多项工商变更，其中投资人新增海南云锋拓海基金中心（有限合伙），持股比例显示5%。也就是说，继君联资本入场后，知名PE云锋基金也低调入股了薇娅的公司。</p>\n<p>在资本运作上，薇娅显然比李佳琦更成熟，步子迈的更大。</p>\n<p>薇娅夫妇已成立一家创投公司，开始涉足私募股权投资领域。天眼查APP显示，2021年1月28日，青岛谦喵私募基金管理有限公司成立，注册资本1000万人民币，经营范围包括私募股权投资基金管理、创业投资基金管理服务等。</p>\n<p>投资界了解到，该基金管理公司于5月10日在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHN\">中国基金</a>业协会备案登记。通过股权穿透发现，该公司由谦寻（杭州）控股有限责任公司100%持股，其疑似实控人为薇娅丈夫董海锋，共持股近50%。</p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b><b>这些主播也在涉足资本市场</b></b></p>\n<p>处于风口浪尖的“快手一哥”辛巴在实现财富累加后成立了辛选投资，先后入股了儿童服饰上市公司起步股份、游戏公司盛讯云商等企业。</p>\n<p>另一边，王思聪前女友，网红雪梨今年4月官宣了其公司“宸帆电商”完成千万美元级B+轮融资。这是宸帆短短一个月内完成的第二轮两轮融资，掌门人雪梨也颇受投资人关注，现在她的身后站着兰馨亚洲、众源资本两家投资机构。</p>\n<p>直播电商圈之外，红人李子柒靠着自己的IP开起了螺蛳粉厂，背后的微念科技也一度成为投资人眼中的“香饽饽”，汇集了包括华兴新经济基金、众源资本、辰海资本、华映资本等十家投资机构。</p>\n<p>不过，这些网红主播探索资本市场的前辈，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUHN\">如涵控股</a>已经提前“死在沙滩上”。</p>\n<p>2019年4月3日，如涵控股头顶“中国网红制造机”的光环在纳斯达克成功IPO，发行价为12.5美元。第一代淘宝网红的张大奕是如涵控股联合创始人、CMO，她曾创下淘宝第一家“双十一”销量破亿女装店的纪录，如涵控股也被称为“中国网红第一股”。</p>\n<p>两年后的2021年4月22日，如涵控股在市值缩水七成的背景下宣布完成私有化，从美股退市。</p>\n<p>过分依赖网红个人品牌，是这些网红主播背后公司的风险。</p>\n<p>财报显示，2018~2020年间，张大奕的自营店铺收入对公司贡献的营收比重均在半数以上，这带来的副作用是，当头部红人面临重大负面新闻时，公司不得不一起承担舆论压力。2020年，张大奕负面事件发生后，如涵公告称，该事件对公司声誉、业务和ADS的交易价格产生了重大不利影响。</p>\n<p>彼时，张大奕与蒋凡传出婚外情。如涵表示，“自2020年4月以来，顶级KOL遭受负面宣传，网店产生的产品销售大幅下降”。</p>\n<p>当时，蒋凡是淘宝总裁兼天猫总裁。</p>\n<p>这一事件重创了如涵，2020年11月23日，如涵控股有限公司公布2021财年第二季度财报显示，截至9月30日，如涵控股第二财季营收2.485亿元，较去年同期下滑9％；归属于如涵控股的净亏损达3120万元，同比收窄38％。</p>\n<p>这一成绩单对比第一财季（营收2.8亿元、净利1070万元）来看，半年来由盈转亏。</p>\n<p>张大奕曾被评为第一电商网红，微博最具价值网红，可惜的是，在网红经济越来越发达的今天，昔日的第一网红张大奕却“老了”，这个“老了”并非说容颜，而是影响力、发展活力、以及带货业绩，都在严重落后了。</p>\n<p>2021年4月23日，如涵控股退市之际，有媒体根据直播电商数据分析工具胖球数据查询，张大奕近30天的带货额是5187万，与此同时，雪梨近30天的带货业绩高达10个亿，已让张大奕望尘莫及。</p>\n<p>2019年，“网红收割机”、多次创业失败的王思聪曾在朋友圈对如涵控股及网红带货的商业模式有过评价，如今来看，很有道理。</p>\n<p>王思聪指出了如涵控股的三个问题：</p>\n<p>“1、亏损。（18年毛利3亿但履约费用1亿元，营销费用1.46亿元，综合管理费用 1.3亿元，加上其它营业收入71万元，导致总运营亏损7235万元。收入是有的但是钱花的也莫名其妙，特别近1.5亿的营销费用令人费解，花这么多营销费用那 kol的意义何在；如果停掉这个营销费用业绩又会如何）</p>\n<p>2、不可复制性（签了一百多个网红，但是就一个张大奕在2017财年和2018财年以及2019财年前三季度分别占据了收入的50.8 ％、52.4 ％和53.5 ％。这是多么不健康的比例）</p>\n<p>3、如涵的网红孵化、网红电商、网红营销模式说白了没有验证成功，也没有证明出自己可以培养出新kol 。”</p>\n<p>耐人寻味的是，如涵退市之际，正是雪梨官宣其公司“宸帆电商”完成千万美元级B+轮融资之时。而雪梨，是王思聪前女友。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/079350e90b4d0a1dc22ccb584df23a8d","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155839444","content_text":"当下火热的直播电商市场竞争加剧，中国两位最热门网红背后的孵化器正在为首次公开募股做准备。\n知情人士透露，“口红一哥”李佳琦背后的上海经纪公司美腕正在招聘一位首席财务官，为可能的美国上市做准备。其中一位知情人士说，合鲸资本和德同资本投资的这家公司考虑上市融资3亿美元。\n此外，“带货一姐”薇娅所在的杭州谦寻文化也在计划IPO。\n\n1、李佳琦的美腕是什么来头？\n李佳琦所属的美腕是否真的会谋求海外上市？其实目前并未实锤。\n6月23日，消息称中国“口红之王”李佳琦所属公司美腕正在物色一名首席财务官，为可能的美国售股计划做准备。不过有媒体向美腕方面求证，对方回应称有关报道为不实消息。\n2021年5月4日，李佳琦在接受《每日经济新闻》采访时，自称是“美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司合伙人”。\n美腕在天眼查的介绍为“美ONE是一家网红、艺人以及模特的线上服务平台,旨在为用户提供拍摄、表演、主播、电商分销等多种合作机会。”\n根据天眼查：美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司实际控制人为戚振波。\n2017年11月，宁波镁麒电子商务有限公司成立，李佳琦占股49%，美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司占股51%。宁波镁麒电子商务有限公司最终受益人为李佳琦。\n2019年3月，上海妆佳电子商务有限公司成立，美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司占股51%，李佳琦占股49%，上海妆佳电子商务有限公司最终受益人为李佳琦。\n\n此外，2021年3月26日，北京美奈咨询管理有限公司成立，法定代表人为戚振波，该公司由戚振波、李佳琦、付鹏等人员共同持股，其中李佳琦持股比例约38%，为第二大股东。\n前述戚振波为美腕的实际控制人。值得注意的是，付鹏曾是李佳琦直播间的助理。2020年5月6日，李佳琦在直播间宣布付鹏转型幕后，不再出现在镜头中，付鹏将成为公司合伙人，李佳琦还调侃以后要叫他一声“付总”。\n公开信息显示，公司成立于2014年12月22日。出资方包括阿里资本、微博创投以及胡海泉这样的明星投资人。\n2015年12月16日，美腕获得天使轮融资，投资方为湖畔山南资本和双龙航软创投。\n2016年10月31日，美腕获得股权融资，投资方为双龙航软创投。\n2017年3月14日，美腕获得A轮融资，投资方为德同资本、新浪微博基金(微创投)、合鲸资本、时尚资本、启峰资本。\n李佳琦曾表示，“我和美腕是一起成长起来的。一开始团队规模不大，大家有事情就一起做。后来公司不断发展，团队规模扩大，内部有了较为明确的分工。我本人更专注在直播和选品上，日常的经营管理会有其他的合伙人一起协同。”\n李佳琦与美腕牵手始于2016年底，当时网红机构美ONE提出“BA网红化”，随后欧莱雅集团与美ONE一拍即合，尝试举办了“BA网红化”的淘宝直播项目比赛。作为BA中销冠的李佳琦获得了参赛资格，随后凭借出色的能力在比赛中脱颖而出，最终签约美ONE成为一名美妆达人。\n美腕一旦上市，无疑具有极大的想象空间。\n“李佳琦”这三个字，在资本市场已经具有相当号召力。\n此前，2020年1月15日，A股上市公司新文化公告称，公司拟与美腕（上海）网络科技有限公司达成战略合作。次日，新文化涨停开盘，并收获5个涨停板。\n美腕要是上市了，还不得飞啊？\n不过，根据目前的公开信息，没有查询到李佳琦在美腕占有的股份，虽然李佳琦对外宣称是美腕合伙人，但实际上究竟是“合伙人”还是“打工人”，不得而知。当然，如果美腕将李佳琦受益的宁波镁麒和上海妆佳打包上市，那李佳琦的身价将暴增。\n2、薇娅的杭州谦寻是什么来头？\n跟李佳琦与美腕之间复杂不明的股权关系不同，薇娅与杭州谦寻的关系则比较明朗。杭州谦寻的大股东兼实控人正是薇娅的丈夫董海峰。谦寻是薇娅夫妇完全掌控的自家品牌。\n谦寻(杭州)文化传媒有限公司成立于2019年9月，董海峰不但是大股东兼实控人，还是董事长兼总经理。\n天眼查介绍，谦寻是新内容电商直播机构。主要业务包括孵化网红主播、短视频内容生产及投放、全域内容营销等，可为品牌定制专属推广方案。\n2021年5月25日，“薇娅狂欢节”在杭州举行，同步的线上直播长达7个小时。这是薇娅的“粉丝节”，今年正式升级至“薇娅狂欢节”。\n“狂欢节”直播开始前，董海锋对媒体介绍:“目前，谦寻旗下有40多位明星主播及达人主播。”这对于以孵化和培养主播为核心业务的MCN公司来说，人数并不多。对此,董海锋补充道:“我们不做人海战术,我们更讲究效果”。\n对于公司发展，董海锋表示，将公司的发展分为两个阶段,第一个阶段是2019年前，薇娅快速成长，公司同步累积了直播、运营、数据经验。得以快速搭建团队，并赋能给其他主播。进入2021年，谦寻也开启了电商主播培训营，希望把谦寻尤其是薇娅身上积累起来的经验分享给更多电商主播们，包括希望进入这个行业，或已经进入这个行业但还没有掌握优秀方法论的人。\n“谦寻做事的路径是先让薇娅去‘趟水’，摸清楚‘坑’和‘金子’，有了方法论之后，再赋能给第二梯队的主播。未来，谦寻可能会在更大范围上，输出给行业。”\n谦寻已经被VC盯上。天眼查APP显示，去年6月，谦寻（杭州）控股有限责任公司进行工商变更，新增苏州君骏德股权投资合伙企业为股东，这是君联资本旗下的一只人民币基金。\n值得一提的是，君联资本董事总经理邵振兴此次也现身谦寻控股董事名单中。\n今年4月，谦寻控股再发生多项工商变更，其中投资人新增海南云锋拓海基金中心（有限合伙），持股比例显示5%。也就是说，继君联资本入场后，知名PE云锋基金也低调入股了薇娅的公司。\n在资本运作上，薇娅显然比李佳琦更成熟，步子迈的更大。\n薇娅夫妇已成立一家创投公司，开始涉足私募股权投资领域。天眼查APP显示，2021年1月28日，青岛谦喵私募基金管理有限公司成立，注册资本1000万人民币，经营范围包括私募股权投资基金管理、创业投资基金管理服务等。\n投资界了解到，该基金管理公司于5月10日在中国基金业协会备案登记。通过股权穿透发现，该公司由谦寻（杭州）控股有限责任公司100%持股，其疑似实控人为薇娅丈夫董海锋，共持股近50%。\n3、这些主播也在涉足资本市场\n处于风口浪尖的“快手一哥”辛巴在实现财富累加后成立了辛选投资，先后入股了儿童服饰上市公司起步股份、游戏公司盛讯云商等企业。\n另一边，王思聪前女友，网红雪梨今年4月官宣了其公司“宸帆电商”完成千万美元级B+轮融资。这是宸帆短短一个月内完成的第二轮两轮融资，掌门人雪梨也颇受投资人关注，现在她的身后站着兰馨亚洲、众源资本两家投资机构。\n直播电商圈之外，红人李子柒靠着自己的IP开起了螺蛳粉厂，背后的微念科技也一度成为投资人眼中的“香饽饽”，汇集了包括华兴新经济基金、众源资本、辰海资本、华映资本等十家投资机构。\n不过，这些网红主播探索资本市场的前辈，如涵控股已经提前“死在沙滩上”。\n2019年4月3日，如涵控股头顶“中国网红制造机”的光环在纳斯达克成功IPO，发行价为12.5美元。第一代淘宝网红的张大奕是如涵控股联合创始人、CMO，她曾创下淘宝第一家“双十一”销量破亿女装店的纪录，如涵控股也被称为“中国网红第一股”。\n两年后的2021年4月22日，如涵控股在市值缩水七成的背景下宣布完成私有化，从美股退市。\n过分依赖网红个人品牌，是这些网红主播背后公司的风险。\n财报显示，2018~2020年间，张大奕的自营店铺收入对公司贡献的营收比重均在半数以上，这带来的副作用是，当头部红人面临重大负面新闻时，公司不得不一起承担舆论压力。2020年，张大奕负面事件发生后，如涵公告称，该事件对公司声誉、业务和ADS的交易价格产生了重大不利影响。\n彼时，张大奕与蒋凡传出婚外情。如涵表示，“自2020年4月以来，顶级KOL遭受负面宣传，网店产生的产品销售大幅下降”。\n当时，蒋凡是淘宝总裁兼天猫总裁。\n这一事件重创了如涵，2020年11月23日，如涵控股有限公司公布2021财年第二季度财报显示，截至9月30日，如涵控股第二财季营收2.485亿元，较去年同期下滑9％；归属于如涵控股的净亏损达3120万元，同比收窄38％。\n这一成绩单对比第一财季（营收2.8亿元、净利1070万元）来看，半年来由盈转亏。\n张大奕曾被评为第一电商网红，微博最具价值网红，可惜的是，在网红经济越来越发达的今天，昔日的第一网红张大奕却“老了”，这个“老了”并非说容颜，而是影响力、发展活力、以及带货业绩，都在严重落后了。\n2021年4月23日，如涵控股退市之际，有媒体根据直播电商数据分析工具胖球数据查询，张大奕近30天的带货额是5187万，与此同时，雪梨近30天的带货业绩高达10个亿，已让张大奕望尘莫及。\n2019年，“网红收割机”、多次创业失败的王思聪曾在朋友圈对如涵控股及网红带货的商业模式有过评价，如今来看，很有道理。\n王思聪指出了如涵控股的三个问题：\n“1、亏损。（18年毛利3亿但履约费用1亿元，营销费用1.46亿元，综合管理费用 1.3亿元，加上其它营业收入71万元，导致总运营亏损7235万元。收入是有的但是钱花的也莫名其妙，特别近1.5亿的营销费用令人费解，花这么多营销费用那 kol的意义何在；如果停掉这个营销费用业绩又会如何）\n2、不可复制性（签了一百多个网红，但是就一个张大奕在2017财年和2018财年以及2019财年前三季度分别占据了收入的50.8 ％、52.4 ％和53.5 ％。这是多么不健康的比例）\n3、如涵的网红孵化、网红电商、网红营销模式说白了没有验证成功，也没有证明出自己可以培养出新kol 。”\n耐人寻味的是，如涵退市之际，正是雪梨官宣其公司“宸帆电商”完成千万美元级B+轮融资之时。而雪梨，是王思聪前女友。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129544324,"gmtCreate":1624378928968,"gmtModify":1703835081799,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"https://youtu.be/b_MPPIWKq4M","listText":"https://youtu.be/b_MPPIWKq4M","text":"https://youtu.be/b_MPPIWKq4M","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129544324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108681571,"gmtCreate":1620018635293,"gmtModify":1704337463686,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108681571","repostId":"1121605010","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121605010","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620014543,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121605010?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 12:02","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121605010","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&amp;P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.</li>\n <li>Fortunately, whatever your goals, yield, value, growth, or total returns, something great is always on sale if you know where to look.</li>\n <li>Baidu is the Google of China, and planning on increasing spending by 30% annually over the coming years, focusing on AI, driverless cars, and streaming.</li>\n <li>In recent weeks it plunged 40%, partially due to forced hedge fund margin call selling. This creates a potentially exceptional opportunity to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" about this speculative hyper-growth blue-chip.</li>\n <li>I recently bought a starter position in Baidu, because it's 31% undervalued and analysts think it could double in the next three years, and almost triple over the next five. For anyone comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants, Baidu is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fce5597f98f5e2431c73edea32173192\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"693\"><span>Photo by DNY59/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Over seven years as an analyst I've studied the greatest investors in history, to see what strategies made them legends.</p>\n<p><b>Greatest Investors In History: Masters Of Financial Science</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Name</b></td>\n   <td><b>Returns</b></td>\n   <td><b>Time Horizon</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Most Famous For</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Jim Simmons (Co-Founder Renaissance Technologies)</td>\n   <td>71.8% CAGR</td>\n   <td>1994 to 2014 (best investing record ever recorded)</td>\n   <td><p>Pure Quant Based Investing</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Joel Greenblatt</td>\n   <td>40% CAGR</td>\n   <td>21 years at Gotham Capital</td>\n   <td><p><b>\"Above-Average Quality Companies At Below-Average Prices\"</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Peter Lynch</td>\n   <td>29.2% CAGR at Fidelity's Magellan Fund</td>\n   <td>1977 to 1990 (13 years)</td>\n   <td><p><b>\"Growth At A Reasonable Price\"</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Bill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust 1990 to 2006)</td>\n   <td>22.8% CAGR and beat the S&amp;P 500 for 15 consecutive years</td>\n   <td>16 years</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Warren Buffett</td>\n   <td>20.8% CAGR at Berkshire</td>\n   <td>55 Years</td>\n   <td><p><b>Greedy when others are fearful</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Benjamin Graham</td>\n   <td>20% CAGR vs 12% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>1934 to 1956 (22 years)</td>\n   <td><b>Margin of Safety</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Edward Thorp</td>\n   <td>20+% CAGR</td>\n   <td>over 30 years</td>\n   <td><p>invented card counting,<b>pure statistically-based investing</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Charlie Munger</td>\n   <td>19.80%</td>\n   <td>1962 to 1975</td>\n   <td><p><b>Wonderful companies at fair prices</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Howard Marks</td>\n   <td>19% CAGR</td>\n   <td>Since 1995</td>\n   <td><p><b>Valuation Mean Reversion</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Anne Scheiber</td>\n   <td>18.3% CAGR</td>\n   <td>50 years</td>\n   <td><p>Turned $5K into $22 million with no formal training, purely with<b>tax-efficient buy and hold blue-chip investing</b>.</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>John Templeton</td>\n   <td>300% from 1939 to 1943, 15.8% CAGR from 1954 to 1992</td>\n   <td>38 years</td>\n   <td>Market Cycles</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Carl Icahn</td>\n   <td>14.6% CAGR vs 5.6% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td><p>2001 to 2016 (15 Years)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>David Swenson</td>\n   <td>13.9% CAGR at Yale's Endowment (includes bonds and alternative assets) vs 10.7% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>30 years</td>\n   <td><p>Alternative Asset Allocation</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Geraldine Weiss</td>\n   <td>11.2% vs 9.8% S&amp;P 500</td>\n   <td>37 years</td>\n   <td><p><b>Best risk-adjusted track record</b>of any newsletter over 30 years according to Hubbert Financial Digest, popularized<b>dividend yield theory</b>(the only strategy she employed)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Combining these lessons, along with decades of market studies from leading research institutions and blue-chip analyst firms, I've determined that there are six fundamentals that over the long term will make you rich (assuming you have discretionary savings to invest of course).</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Portfolio risk-management</li>\n <li>safety</li>\n <li>quality</li>\n <li>yield</li>\n <li>growth</li>\n <li>and value</li>\n</ul>\n<p>When combined with patience, time, and discipline, these are what made the greatest investors in history the legends they are today.</p>\n<p>You and I may never match the returns of the legends, but if we practice disciplined financial science we can avoid costly mistakes, and focus on the highest probability/low-risk blue-chips.</p>\n<blockquote>\n It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.\" - Charlie Munger\n</blockquote>\n<p>These are the \"consistently not stupid\" decisions that made Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett so successful.</p>\n<p>Today I want to explain why I've recently opened a starter tracking position in speculative hyper-growth blue-chip Baidu (BIDU).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78b7d254783a9f8afc60962aa7d03ee\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>All Chinese tech giants are suffering a bear market right now. But notice how Baidu recently fell 40% in a matter of weeks.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu was also held by now-infamous hedge fund Archegos Capital Management at that time, which blew up during the same week. When the highly levered Archegos was unable to meet a margin call, banks seized Archegos' assets, including Baidu, and sold them off in massive blocks, accelerating Baidu's plunge.\" -Motley Fool\n</blockquote>\n<p>Institutional forced selling is one of the best opportunities for prudent long-term investors to buy the world's highest quality companies at mouth-watering prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c272fe0a5f7a5052ea3021630d643\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\"></p>\n<p>Lowe's (LOW) and Realty Income (O) both plunged 25% on March 16th, due to institutional forced selling.</p>\n<p>In other words, when hedge funds get margin calls, they become the ultimate dumb money. Taking the other side of those trades can be the way to earn Buffett-like returns, through buying and holding blue-chip investing.</p>\n<p>So let me explain the four reasons why I consider it time to get greedy when others are fearful on Baidu.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Today I buy what others won't, so tomorrow I earn returns others can't.\"\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n  - Paraphrase of Jerry Rice\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Reason 1: A Speculative Blue-Chip Quality Company</b></p>\n<p>According to the 2017 study<i>Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?</i>by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business 52% of all stocks, lose money over time.</p>\n<p>This study looked at 26,000 companies from 1926 to 2016 and found that about 12% went to zero.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f826f65373ae3a2e4061f906c54bb2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5868a6e0418dbe8596b0c667120b3a53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\"><span>(Source: Bessembinder et al)</span></p>\n<p>From 1926 to 2016 over 3,000 US companies listed on US exchanges went bankrupt. 1,100 or about 4%, delivered 100% of net positive returns. Just 48% of stocks delivered positive returns.</p>\n<p>In other words, safety and quality are what can help you avoid the value traps that don't make any money or lose all of your savings.</p>\n<p>The Dividend Kings quality scores factor in 143 fundamental metrics covering</p>\n<ul>\n <li>dividend safety</li>\n <li>balance sheet strength</li>\n <li>short and long-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>accounting and corporate fraud risk</li>\n <li>profitability and business model</li>\n <li>cost of capital</li>\n <li>long-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)</li>\n <li>management quality</li>\n <li>dividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability</li>\n <li>long-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Our model actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by eight rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.</p>\n<p>Every metric was selected based on</p>\n<ul>\n <li>decades of empirical data</li>\n <li>the experience of the greatest investors in history</li>\n <li>eight rating agencies</li>\n <li>and what blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to a company's long-term success.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Baidu's quality is 9/12 speculative blue-chip, meaning I recommend a 2.5% max risk cap position sizing.</p>\n<p><b>Dividend Kings Quality Rating System</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Quality Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Meaning</b></td>\n   <td><b>Max Invested Capital Risk Recommendation</b></td>\n   <td><b>Margin Of Safety Potentially Good Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>Strong Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>Very Strong Buy</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Ultra-Value Buy</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3</td>\n   <td>Terrible, Very High Long-Term Bankruptcy Risk</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>4</td>\n   <td>Very Poor</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>Poor</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td>NA (avoid)</td>\n   <td><p>NA (avoid)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>6</td>\n   <td>Below-Average, Fallen Angels (very speculative)</td>\n   <td>1%</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>65%</td>\n   <td>75%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>7</td>\n   <td>Average (Relative to S&amp;P 500)</td>\n   <td>2.5%</td>\n   <td>35%</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>65%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>8</td>\n   <td>Above-Average</td>\n   <td>5% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td>35% to 40%</td>\n   <td>45% to 50%</td>\n   <td><p>55% to 60%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>9</b></td>\n   <td><b>Blue-Chip</b></td>\n   <td>7% (unless<b>speculative</b>then<b>2.5%</b>)</td>\n   <td>20% to<b>25%</b></td>\n   <td>30% to<b>35%</b></td>\n   <td>40% to<b>45%</b></td>\n   <td><p>50% to<b>55%</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>10</td>\n   <td>SWAN (a higher caliber of Blue-Chip)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>15% to 20%</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td>35% to 40%</td>\n   <td><p>45% to 50%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>11</td>\n   <td>Super SWAN (exceptionally dependable blue-chips)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>10% to 15%</td>\n   <td>20% to 25%</td>\n   <td>30% to 35%</td>\n   <td><p>40% to 45%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>12</td>\n   <td>Ultra SWAN (as close to perfect companies as exist)</td>\n   <td>7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)</td>\n   <td>5% to 10%</td>\n   <td>15% to 20%</td>\n   <td>25% to 30%</td>\n   <td><p>35% to 40%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>What exactly makes Baidu a speculative blue-chip?</p>\n<p><b>Balance Sheet Safety</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n   <td><b>Dividend Kings Safety Score (75 Safety Metric Model)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Approximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>1 (very unsafe)</td>\n   <td>0% to 20%</td>\n   <td>over 4%</td>\n   <td>16+%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2 (unsafe average)</td>\n   <td>21% to 40%</td>\n   <td>over 2%</td>\n   <td>8% to 16%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3 (average)</td>\n   <td>41% to 60%</td>\n   <td>2%</td>\n   <td>4% to 8%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>4 (safe)</b></td>\n   <td><b>61% to 80%</b></td>\n   <td><b>1%</b></td>\n   <td><b>2% to 4%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5 (very safe)</td>\n   <td>81% to 100%</td>\n   <td>0.5%</td>\n   <td>1% to 2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>76%</b></td>\n   <td><b>A stable rating from Fitch, A3 (A- equivalent) stable rating Moody's</b></td>\n   <td><b>0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Long-Term Dependability</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Company</b></td>\n   <td><b>DK Long-Term Dependability Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Interpretation</b></td>\n   <td><b>Points</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>S&amp;P 500/Industry Average</td>\n   <td>58%</td>\n   <td>Average Dependability</td>\n   <td>2</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Non-Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>31% or below</td>\n   <td>Poor Dependability</td>\n   <td>1</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Relatively Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>32% to 70%</td>\n   <td>Below to Above-Average Dependability</td>\n   <td>2</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Very Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>71% to 80%</td>\n   <td>Very Dependable</td>\n   <td>3</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Exceptionally Dependable Companies</td>\n   <td>81% or higher</td>\n   <td>Exceptional Dependability</td>\n   <td>4</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>67%</b></td>\n   <td><b>Above-Average Dependability</b></td>\n   <td><b>2</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Overall Quality</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>BIDU</b></td>\n   <td><b>Final Score</b></td>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Safety</td>\n   <td>76%</td>\n   <td>4/5</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Business Model</td>\n   <td>80%</td>\n   <td>3/3</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Dependability</td>\n   <td>67%</td>\n   <td>2/4</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Total</b></td>\n   <td><b>73%</b></td>\n   <td><b>9/12 Speculative Blue-Chip</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Baidu is the 245th Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 495) = 49th Percentile</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927ef17638b4bbf9db4e34f1aeb01a61\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\"><span>(Source: DK Safety &amp; Quality Tool) updated at the end of each day, sorted by overall quality score</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li>green = potentially good buy or better</li>\n <li>blue = potentially reasonable buy</li>\n <li>yellow = hold</li>\n <li>red = potential trim/sell</li>\n</ul>\n<p>BIDU's 73% quality score means it's the 245th highest quality company on the DK 500 Master List. This list includes the world's highest quality companies including</p>\n<ul>\n <li>all dividend champions</li>\n <li>all dividend aristocrats</li>\n <li>all dividend kings</li>\n <li>all 12/12 Ultra SWANs (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street, think wide moat aristocrats)</li>\n <li>numerous global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>BIDU is about average quality compared to the world's elite companies and similar in quality to such 9/12 blue-chips and, 10/12 SWANs, as</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Qualcomm (QCOM)</li>\n <li>Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>W. P. Carey (WPC)</li>\n <li>Sonoco Products (SON) - dividend champion</li>\n <li>H.B. Fuller (FUL) - dividend king</li>\n <li>MetLife (MET)</li>\n <li>Digital Realty Trust (DLR)</li>\n <li>Leggett &amp; Platt (LEG) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>V.F. Corp (VFC) - dividend aristocrat</li>\n <li>Bank of New York Mellon (BK)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Baidu has a strong cash-rich balance sheet, though it is taking on extra leverage in order to fund its ambitious growth efforts.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4c7bc8d9da039967a0ce9e435f7b6eb\" tg-width=\"449\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Including leasing expenses, BIDU has 2X as much cash as debt.</p>\n<p>Fitch and Moody's rate Baidu A stable and A3 (A- equivalent) stable outlooks, indicating 0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect much higher spending in the short-term to cause leverage to increase, though rating agencies don't expect this to be permanent.</p>\n<p>The key safety ratios with Baidu are the F, Z, and M scores, advanced accounting ratios created by leading research institutions that use asset ratios scanned from quarterly filings.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>F-score measures short-term bankruptcy risk</li>\n <li>Z-score measures 2-year bankruptcy risk (with 84% to 92% historical accuracy)</li>\n <li>M-score measures accounting fraud risk (with 76% historical accuracy)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>7/9 is very safe on the F-score = very low short-term bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>3.59 vs 3+ very safe and 9.51 historical, confirms the A-credit ratings and low long-term risk of losing all your money.</p>\n<p>And the M-score of -2.42 indicates a significantly less than 17.5% probability that Baidu is cooking its books.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0593cdfc392caf38a9d7ca42c482c359\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6110ac3a73c5c935e0778da21e6eb62e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's historically unsafe M-score has been improving and became safe at the end of 2014 and has remained so for the last seven years.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>its safety and quality score still get dinged though because we factor in every important metric so we don't miss any warning signs</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching accounting fraud and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting.</p>\n<p>Combined with its credit ratings and risk ratings from 5 different rating agencies, plus its auditors, I can say with relatively high confidence that Baidu is not the next Luckin Coffee.</p>\n<p>Quality is a proven alpha factor, one of seven that beats the market over the long term.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4868372d29cef8d5b07fc5a538fb58e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\"></p>\n<p>On Wall Street, profitability over time is the most accurate proxy for quality.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>credit ratings are one of the best qualitative quality proxies</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c8a6a2913d554a5c9780f869d7a887\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Baidu's profitability is historically in the top 20% of its peers, confirming a wide and stable moat.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td>\n   <td><b>Major Interactive Media Companies More Profitable Than BIDU (Out of 543)</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Margin</td>\n   <td>67.35</td>\n   <td>177</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Net Margin</td>\n   <td>81.26</td>\n   <td>102</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Equity</td>\n   <td>67.86</td>\n   <td>175</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Assets</td>\n   <td>68.47</td>\n   <td>171</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Return On Capital</td>\n   <td>69.61</td>\n   <td>165</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n   <td><b>70.91</b></td>\n   <td><b>158</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</i></p>\n<p>Over the last year, increased growth spending has reduced profitability to the top 29% of peers, though that's expected to recover in the future.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>for example, returns on equity are expected to rise 10% by 2024</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Joel Greenblatt defined quality by return on capital, his gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>operating income (EBIT)/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business for a year)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Greenblatt's entire legendary track record, 40% annual returns for 21 years, was done by combining high ROC with low valuations.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d43fa9d5032a24362f75054f2a9e93\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\"><span>(Source: Gurufocus Premium)</span></p>\n<p>Even with heavy growth spending in recent years, Baidu's returns on capital are very impressive.</p>\n<p>The average Master List company has 88% ROC.</p>\n<p>The average aristocrat 83%.</p>\n<p>The average Ultra SWAN 87%.</p>\n<p>Over the past year, BIDU's ROC has been 103% and in Q4 it was 95%.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect that in the next few years, ROC will revert back to its historical 205%.</p>\n<p>A level of profitability that, according to Joel Greenblatt, would make BIDU one of the highest quality companies in the world.</p>\n<p>Baidu's future growth is expected to come from aggressive investments into driverless cars (long-term) and AI and streaming in the short and medium term.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Growth Spending Consensus Forecast</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>SG&amp;A</b></td>\n   <td><b>R&amp;D</b></td>\n   <td><b>Capex</b></td>\n   <td><b>Total Growth Spending</b></td>\n   <td><b>Sales</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Growth Spending/Sales</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>$2,792</td>\n   <td>$3,016</td>\n   <td>$993</td>\n   <td>$4,009</td>\n   <td>$16,548</td>\n   <td>24.23%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>$3,574</td>\n   <td>$3,554</td>\n   <td>$1,893</td>\n   <td>$5,447</td>\n   <td>$19,517</td>\n   <td>27.91%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>$3,974</td>\n   <td>$4,062</td>\n   <td>$2,220</td>\n   <td>$6,282</td>\n   <td>$22,235</td>\n   <td>28.25%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>$5,049</td>\n   <td>$5,858</td>\n   <td>$2,719</td>\n   <td>$8,577</td>\n   <td>$25,258</td>\n   <td>33.96%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$1,504</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$30,071</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2025</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2026</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>21.83%</b></td>\n   <td><b>24.77%</b></td>\n   <td><b>10.94%</b></td>\n   <td><b>28.85%</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.10%</b></td>\n   <td><b>NA</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Historically Baidu spends about 17% of its revenue on growth. By 2023 that's expected to double.</p>\n<p>Total growth spending is expected to grow at almost 30% annually for the next three years.</p>\n<p>Baidu Consensus Profit Forecast</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>Sales</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBITDA</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBIT (Operating Income)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Net Income</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>$16,548</td>\n   <td>$2,106</td>\n   <td>$4,251</td>\n   <td>$2,216</td>\n   <td>$3,473</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>$19,517</td>\n   <td>$3,947</td>\n   <td>$4,734</td>\n   <td>$2,629</td>\n   <td>$2,760</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>$22,235</td>\n   <td>$5,013</td>\n   <td>$5,812</td>\n   <td>$3,400</td>\n   <td>$3,381</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>$25,258</td>\n   <td>$5,854</td>\n   <td>$6,730</td>\n   <td>$4,163</td>\n   <td>$4,226</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>$30,071</td>\n   <td>$7,421</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>$6,195</td>\n   <td>$5,268</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.10%</b></td>\n   <td><b>37.01%</b></td>\n   <td><b>16.55%</b></td>\n   <td><b>29.31%</b></td>\n   <td><b>10.98%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Management's guidance, which is the basis for these consensus forecasts, is for strong revenue growth. Net margins are expected to compress but cash flows are expected to soar.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow, the ultimate source of all intrinsic value according to Ben Graham and Warren Buffett, is expected to more than triple by 2024.</p>\n<p>Baidu Consensus Margin Forecast</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Year</b></td>\n   <td><b>FCF Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBITDA Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>EBIT (Operating) Margin</b></td>\n   <td><b>Net Margin</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2020</td>\n   <td>12.7%</td>\n   <td>25.7%</td>\n   <td>13.4%</td>\n   <td>21.0%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2021</td>\n   <td>20.2%</td>\n   <td>24.3%</td>\n   <td>13.5%</td>\n   <td>14.1%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2022</td>\n   <td>22.5%</td>\n   <td>26.1%</td>\n   <td>15.3%</td>\n   <td>15.2%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2023</td>\n   <td>23.2%</td>\n   <td>26.6%</td>\n   <td>16.5%</td>\n   <td>16.7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2024</td>\n   <td>24.7%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>20.6%</td>\n   <td>17.5%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Annualized Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>18.01%</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.23%</b></td>\n   <td><b>11.37%</b></td>\n   <td><b>-4.42%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</i></p>\n<p>Baidu's profitability is ultimately expected to improve, though net margins won't until its major growth initiatives are over.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8691866fef56c1dd17062657e10811\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU ended 2020 with $5.6 billion in cash, and that's expected to rise to $22 billion by 2023, and potentially nearly $60 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>That may not be as impressive as some tech companies ($601 billion by 2026 for Amazon), but it does mean that Baidu's war chest and financial flexibility to pivot towards AI, driverless cars, and streaming will grow significantly in future years.</p>\n<p>Baidu Medium-Term Growth Consensus</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020 Actual Growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022 consensus growth</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>2023 consensus growth</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EPS</td>\n   <td>31%</td>\n   <td>7%</td>\n   <td>18%</td>\n   <td>16%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)</td>\n   <td>124%</td>\n   <td>22%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>-14%</td>\n   <td>59%</td>\n   <td>31%</td>\n   <td>7%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Free cash flow</td>\n   <td>96%</td>\n   <td>85%</td>\n   <td>22%</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBITDA</td>\n   <td>-18%</td>\n   <td>53%</td>\n   <td>27%</td>\n   <td>24%</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBIT (operating income)</td>\n   <td>130%</td>\n   <td>26%</td>\n   <td>26%</td>\n   <td>19%</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>In the next few years, Baidu's growth efforts are expected to result in strong growth. But what's attracted me to the Google of China, is that this hyper-growth is expected to continue for many years to come.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 2: Long-Term Hyper-Growth Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdfa536609dc32efe57d7af85154ddbf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's AI, streaming, and driverless car investments are showing up in \"other services\" and that revenue is expected to grow almost 50% in 3 years.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0a582df968d9cfaf4a09f2f2984f522\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72ab775d253a2fbce4a1a5001922e0b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<ul>\n <li>16.0% to 17.5% long-term growth consensus range</li>\n <li>6% to 28% growth consensus range adjusted for historical margin of error</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae4ef54819e7f58c95b2f21ced20393\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"336\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/705d5218e7d882c4c52948d4f47fbb5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\"></p>\n<p>The margins of error on BIDU forecasts are very wide. 33% of the time it grows much faster than expected, 33% of the time much slower, and 33% of the about as fast as expected.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>margins of error over the last decade (excluding outliers) are 60% to the downside, 55% to the upside</li>\n <li>the long-term growth consensus range: 16% to 18% CAGR</li>\n <li>the margin of error adjusted long-term analyst growth consensus range: 6% to 28% CAGR</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c38a8847c12ffd67928559c978ff18\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"407\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU's historical growth is from -9% to 52%. So relatively high growth uncertainty, more so than most tech blue-chips.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>and thus the $650 investment vs $10K in GOOG, $89K in BABA, and $200K in Amazon</li>\n</ul>\n<p>However, analysts expect growth to be similar to the 20% growth of the last decade.</p>\n<p>And at today's high margin of safety, we're likely getting a good deal to compensate for BIDU's growth uncertainty and complex risk profile.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 3: Highly Attractive Valuation</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3ad1e7e41458b1bdc4f379d7917692\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU growing at the rates analysts expect in the future has historically been valued at 23X to 26X earnings.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbd2ab20e70f34f53bc7768feb9b6a24\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\"><span>(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)</span></p>\n<p>BIDU is currently trading at 20.4X forward earnings and 13.6X EV/EBITDA.</p>\n<p>EV/EBITDA is market cap + net debt/EBITDA and is Joel Greenblatt's and private equity's favorite valuation metric.</p>\n<p>Baidu's 13-year median EV/EBITDA is 23.2, and its trading at 13.6, implying a potential 42% discount to fair value.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Metric</b></td>\n   <td><b>Historical Fair Value (12-years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022</b></td>\n   <td><b>2023</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Earnings</td>\n   <td>25.0</td>\n   <td>$243.87</td>\n   <td>$261.27</td>\n   <td>$307.91</td>\n   <td>$357.77</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Owner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF) - 10 yr</td>\n   <td>23.5</td>\n   <td>$324.46</td>\n   <td>$394.46</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Operating Cash Flow</td>\n   <td>19.9</td>\n   <td>$202.33</td>\n   <td>$321.22</td>\n   <td>$420.37</td>\n   <td>$448.64</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Free Cash Flow (11-yr)</td>\n   <td>27.5</td>\n   <td>$220.77</td>\n   <td>$408.53</td>\n   <td>$497.28</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBITDA</td>\n   <td>22.0</td>\n   <td>$190.60</td>\n   <td>$291.18</td>\n   <td>$370.80</td>\n   <td>$459.36</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>EBIT (operating income)</td>\n   <td>34.5</td>\n   <td>$207.78</td>\n   <td>$261.14</td>\n   <td>$328.78</td>\n   <td>$392.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n   <td><b>$224.60</b></td>\n   <td><b>$312.71</b></td>\n   <td><b>$373.81</b></td>\n   <td><b>$410.40</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Current Price</td>\n   <td>$215.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Discount To Fair Value</b></p></td>\n   <td><b>3.91%</b></td>\n   <td><b>30.98%</b></td>\n   <td><b>42.26%</b></td>\n   <td><b>47.41%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><i><b>Upside To Fair Value</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>4%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>45%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>73%</b></i></td>\n   <td><i><b>90%</b></i></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</i></p>\n<p>BIDU is about 31% historically undervalued right now, meaning that if it grows as expected through 2023 and returns to fair value that's 90% upside potential.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>$350 is the median 12-month price target</li>\n <li>65% upside potential over the next 12 months according to analysts</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And that guestimate is 100% justified by fundamentals.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating</b></td>\n   <td><b>Margin Of Safety For Speculative 9/12 Blue-Chip Quality Companies</b></td>\n   <td><b>2020 Price</b></td>\n   <td><b>2021 Price</b></td>\n   <td><b>2022 Price</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Reasonable Buy</td>\n   <td>0%</td>\n   <td>$224.60</td>\n   <td>$312.71</td>\n   <td>$373.81</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Potentially Good Buy</b></td>\n   <td><b>25%</b></td>\n   <td><b>$168.45</b></td>\n   <td><b>$234.53</b></td>\n   <td><b>$280.35</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Strong Buy</td>\n   <td>35%</td>\n   <td>$145.99</td>\n   <td>$203.26</td>\n   <td>$242.97</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Very Strong Buy</td>\n   <td>45%</td>\n   <td>$123.53</td>\n   <td>$171.99</td>\n   <td>$205.59</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Potentially Ultra-Value Buy</td>\n   <td>55%</td>\n   <td>$101.07</td>\n   <td>$140.72</td>\n   <td>$168.21</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Currently</b></td>\n   <td><b>$213.41</b></td>\n   <td><b>5%</b></td>\n   <td><b>32%</b></td>\n   <td><b>43%</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Upside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)</p></td>\n   <td>5%</td>\n   <td>47%</td>\n   <td>75%</td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>At a 32% margin of safety, Baidu, despite all its risks, is a potentially good buy for more risk-tolerant investors.</p>\n<p>But the ability to potentially enjoy monster short-term gains is just the cherry on top with Baidu.</p>\n<p><b>Reason 4: Eye-Popping Long-Term Return Potential</b></p>\n<p>Here is a reasonable idea of what kind of returns you can expect buying BIDU today.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu 2023 Consensus Return Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15f5606b2eaa042608497f68998a69cc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>If BAIDU grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>75% total returns</li>\n <li>23.3% CAGR returns</li>\n <li>vs -1.3% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n</ul>\n<p>From its 31% discount, BIDU has the potential to outperform the 36% overvalued S&amp;P 500 by 78% over the next three years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7be8ed919f810734d99f50b4b14741dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>Corporate earnings growth estimates are rising by the day. Yet the market has already priced in three years of earnings growth totaling 62% or 17.4% CAGR.</p>\n<p>Over the long term, BIDU's return outlook is also very strong.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu 2026 Consensus Return Potential</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9aef71a5e564b122341a52dec05bb34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>If BIDU grows as analysts expect through 2026 and returns to historical fair value you could expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>179% total returns</li>\n <li>19.8% CAGR</li>\n <li>vs 4.5% CAGR S&amp;P 500</li>\n <li><i><b>4.4X better than the market's consensus return potential</b></i></li>\n</ul>\n<p>If BIDU delivers as analysts expect, then buying today could almost triple your money in the next five years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/935c135e000c240df768640b47826e5c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)</span></p>\n<p>Over the long term, analysts expect</p>\n<ul>\n <li>0% yield + 17.5% growth = 17.5% CAGR very long-term total returns (after valuation changes cancel out)</li>\n <li>6% to 28% CAGR range</li>\n <li>vs 7.8% for the S&amp;P and 10.8% for the dividend aristocrats</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Baidu Total Returns Since 2006</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfe7969e52431f689a9737c4c48401e1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08f72f9d45d8f32d950ea367c84cb531\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40bd03cb49698c42f76664151bd05cf5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\"><span>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)</span></p>\n<p>In the last 15 years, BIDU has turned $1 into $26, adjusted for inflation, and crushed the market with 8X more wealth compounding.</p>\n<p>It's expected to grow slightly slower than in the past, but the ability to potentially enjoy 17.5% hyper-growth for many years is incredibly attractive.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Vs S&amp;P 500 Vs Dividend Aristocrat Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Forecast: $650 Initial Investment</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>5.8% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&amp;P Consensus)</b></td>\n   <td><b>8.8% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (aristocrat consensus)</b></td>\n   <td><b>15.5% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (BIDU consensus)</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>$1,325.65</td>\n   <td>$1,524.56</td>\n   <td>$1,336.05</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>10</b></td>\n   <td><b>$1,757.34</b></td>\n   <td><b>$2,324.28</b></td>\n   <td><b>$2,746.21</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15</td>\n   <td>$2,329.62</td>\n   <td>$3,543.51</td>\n   <td>$5,644.73</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20</td>\n   <td>$3,088.26</td>\n   <td>$5,402.29</td>\n   <td>$11,602.54</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25</td>\n   <td>$4,093.94</td>\n   <td>$8,236.11</td>\n   <td>$23,848.60</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>30</b></td>\n   <td><b>$5,427.13</b></td>\n   <td><b>$12,556.45</b></td>\n   <td><b>$49,019.95</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>35</td>\n   <td>$7,194.46</td>\n   <td>$19,143.06</td>\n   <td>$100,758.76</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>40</td>\n   <td>$9,537.33</td>\n   <td>$29,184.74</td>\n   <td>$207,106.02</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>45</td>\n   <td>$12,643.14</td>\n   <td>$44,493.88</td>\n   <td>$425,699.02</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>50</b></td>\n   <td><b>$16,760.36</b></td>\n   <td><b>$67,833.58</b></td>\n   <td><b>$875,009.10</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>The ability to grow 2X to 3X as fast as the S&amp;P 500 or aristocrats creates the potential for wealth compounding on a massive scale. Look at how large my $650 initial BIDU investment can grow, assuming analysts are right and management delivers the expected growth over time.</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Time Frame (Years)</b></td>\n   <td><b>Ratio S&amp;P vs Aristocrat Consensus</b></td>\n   <td><b>Ratio S&amp;P vs BIDU consensus</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5</td>\n   <td>1.15</td>\n   <td>1.01</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>10</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.32</b></td>\n   <td><b>1.56</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15</td>\n   <td>1.52</td>\n   <td>2.42</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20</td>\n   <td>1.75</td>\n   <td>3.76</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25</td>\n   <td>2.01</td>\n   <td>5.83</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>30</b></td>\n   <td><b>2.31</b></td>\n   <td><b>9.03</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>35</td>\n   <td>2.66</td>\n   <td>14.01</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>40</td>\n   <td>3.06</td>\n   <td>21.72</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>45</td>\n   <td>3.52</td>\n   <td>33.67</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>50</b></td>\n   <td><b>4.05</b></td>\n   <td><b>52.21</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Over the long term, the aristocrats are expected to quadruple the S&amp;P 500's wealth compounding. Baidu could potentially deliver 52X as much wealth as the S&amp;P 500.</p>\n<p>Is Baidu likely to grow 17.5% for 50 years? Probably not. But even if it can deliver just 10 to 20 years of hyper-growth, when combined with its attractive current valuation, that's worthy of a small initial investment in my book.</p>\n<p><b>Risk Profile: Why Baidu Isn't Right For Everyone</b></p>\n<p>There are no risk-free companies and no company is right for everyone. You have to be comfortable with the fundamental risk profile.</p>\n<p><b>Fundamental Risk Summary</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n We think Baidu faces high levels of risk, given intense competition along with questions as to whether its AI-related investment will generate satisfactory returns.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Though Baidu is the largest search engine in China, it is competing with the other two Internet giants, Tencent and Alibaba, and Google’s potential return to the Chinese search market is also a threat.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Regarding the search engine business, Tencent invested in Sogou, and Alibaba acquired UC Web, which owns a mobile search engine, Shenma. Competition has extended to each key area of mobile Internet usage, such as navigation, O2O services, online video services, and so on. Baidu’s margins have been significantly dragged down by aggressive spending in video content and O2O marketing but recovered to 18.5% in 2017 from 14.2% in 2016 as Baidu divested margin-dilutive businesses.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The major Internet companies in China have been investing in AI-related business, such as cloud computing, voice and image recognition, and autonomously driven cars. At the current stage,\n <b>it is difficult to predict whether Baidu will be the final winner in AI and whether the returns will reward its investment.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n In addition, regulatory risk is a concern. Following the Wei Zexi incident in early 2016, Chinese authorities launched new regulations for online search and advertising, which clearly defined paid search results as advertising. These regulations took effect on Sept. 1, 2016. Given stricter standards for online advertisers, Baidu’s online marketing services revenue growth declined to 1% in 2016. If the local authorities release more policies regarding Internet business, such as online advertising and online finance, Baidu’s revenue could be negatively affected.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Since 2017, Baidu has discontinued the disclosure of MAUs for its mobile search and mobile maps, which is possibly due to weaker numbers.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU's pivot into the technology of the future is potentially like Satya Nadella taking MSFT into the pure cloud-driven strategy.</p>\n<p>Or it could be like IBM's Watson-based flaying, major promise but poor execution over time.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu has the urgency to strengthen its mobile business because it has not developed another industry-leading business other than its mobile search app for years.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu’s share of mobile time spend reduced to 6.9% in March 2019 from 7.3% year over year. Baidu positions its flagship Baidu app (173 million daily average users in March 2019) as a \"super\" app that can serve a wide range of users' needs, such as reading, watching videos, shopping, transportation tickets, food services, and so on, but we believe the app is less of a super app compared with Tencent’s Wechat (1.1 billion monthly average users).\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n It has copied the strategies of its peers by launching a mini-program (181 million MAU in March 2019) and short video apps (sevenfold year over year increase to 98 million MAU in March 2019 as per Questmobile).\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>Baidu has struggled more than most Chinese tech giants to pivot and adapt to the disruption risk that is ever-present in this industry.</p>\n<blockquote>\n We have not factored in the meaningful commercialization of Baidu’s AI-based services, such as voice assistant platform DuerOS, autonomous driving platform Apollo and artificial intelligence cloud services.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Search is driven by an artificial intelligence-powered algorithm, giving Baidu a good foundation in this segment.</b>Baidu is also\n <b>one of the largest and earliest companies to start AI investments in China.</b>Currently, Baidu uses AI to recommend feeds to the app’s users to generate advertising revenue.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n IQiyi, Baidu’s online video platform, has been a key growth driver stemming from increasing willingness to pay for premium content in China and continuous advertising demand on&nbsp;\n <b>iQiyi. It accounted for 29% of Baidu’s revenue in the first quarter of 2019.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n In the near term, Baidu will invest heavily in its mobile business in terms of sales and marketing, and traffic acquisition. While meaningful monetization is uncertain, we expect Baidu to increase or maintain its research and development expenditure, which is at 17% of sales in the first quarter of 2019. To fend off major competitor Tencent Video, iQiyi needs to continue to invest in premium content. Therefore, we expect Baidu’s margins to be under pressure in the near term.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>But while Baidu has made some questionable investments over the years, its current focus on AI is a logical and prudent one.</p>\n<p>Baidu's competitive advantage in AI stems from being the first mover in Chinese search. It has the most data to feed into its machine learning algorithms, though rivals like Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) are working hard to eat its lunch.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu generated 68% of its revenue during the year from its online marketing services segment, which mainly sells ads. The segment's revenue has declined year over year for&nbsp;seven straight quarters.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n That ongoing slowdown is troubling since Baidu's advertising rivals -- like&nbsp;\n <b>Tencent</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;\n <b>Bilibili --</b>both expanded&nbsp;their advertising businesses over the past year. It also indicates people are spending less time on traditional online searches and more time on other digital platforms.\" - Leo Sun,Motley Fool\n</blockquote>\n<p>In recent years, BIDU's market share in digital ads has been declining, which means unlike companies like JD, BABA, and TCEHY, it's attempting to pivot from a position of weakness, not strength.</p>\n<p>It has the resources to invest heavily and hopefully achieve the kinds of impressive growth rates analysts expect. But success is far from guaranteed.</p>\n<p>This is why I've bought a starter 3 share tracking position in Baidu.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>compared to a $10,000 position in Alphabet (GOOG)</li>\n <li>and an&nbsp;$89,000 investment into Alibaba</li>\n <li>and a&nbsp;$200,000 investment into Amazon(AMZN)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>And of course, we can't forget about the risks surrounding management and governance.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Robin Yanhong Li, the founder of Baidu, has been the chairman of the board since its inception and has served as the CEO since 2004. Before that, Li worked at IDD Information Services and Infoseek in Silicon Valley, with a special focus on product development in Internet search engines. Li owned 16.4% of the company as of January 2020, and all directors and management together owned 16.5%. Jennifer Xinzhe Li stepped down as CFO in 2017 and was replaced by Herman Yu, formerly of Weibo...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu had reputational issues, with the Wei Zexi medical incident being the largest scandal, which led to a management restructuring in 2016. Three vice presidents were dismissed. Qi Lu joined Baidu in January 2017 as group president and COO but resigned in June 2018. Lu has a solid record in the U.S. technology industry, and Baidu’s financial performance substantially improved during his appointment.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n This incident once again raised the market’s concern about Baidu’s turnover of key executives, including ex-chief scientist Andrew Ng and ex-senior vice president Jin Wang. In May 2019, Baidu announced the departure of senior vice president Hailong Xiang, who had been with Baidu since 2005. His departure is believed to be a result of Baidu’s inability to develop another successful and profitable business outside of search.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n The introduction of a senior management retirement plan and a young leadership development program signifies Baidu’s determination to revamp its management and reinvigorate its businesses in the new Internet era. Shen Dou leads the mobile ecosystem group now. He has a technical background and puts more focus on more user experience versus maximizing sales. There are now more interactions between the sales, commercial product team, and the user experience team, which we think is better for Baidu’s sustainability.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>Unlike the management at Tencent, which Morningstar considers \"exemplary\" or the \"deep bench\" at Alibaba, BIDU has struggled with management in recent years.</p>\n<blockquote>\n B shares, which are owned by the CEO and his affiliates, have 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares. Therefore,\n <b>Li controls 55.4% of the equity voting rights</b>&nbsp;as of January 2020.As a result, these Class B shareholders have a disproportionately large influence over key matters such as the election of directors and significant corporate transactions, including mergers and the sale of the company or assets.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU's founder and CEO controls 55% of the vote and thus is effectively king of Baidu. If shareholders don't like what management does, they have no recourse other than selling.</p>\n<p>Management isn't a poor capital allocator, but in recent years it hasn't been firing on all cylinders when it comes to pivoting to growth catalysts as easily as JD, BABA, and TCEHY have.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Some of Baidu’s acquisitions and new business developments have proved unsuccessful.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n These include the acquisition of 59% of Nuomi, a group-buying service provider, for $160 million in 2013 and the remaining stake in 2014 for an undisclosed sum, and Raven Tech for $90 million in 2017...\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu’s investments in online-to-offline businesses such as deliveries and Nuomi led to its&nbsp;\n <b>operating margin declining from 26.1% in 2014 to 14.2% in 2016</b>&nbsp;but they did not gain as much scale as Meituan.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n However, we refrain from giving a Poor stewardship rating to Baidu for several reasons.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Baidu made the right decision in moving away from the O2O businesses, which led to margin improvement to 18.5% in 2017</b>and investing in mobile and AI, which we believe is sensible given that they complement its strong core search business.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Also, Baidu’s return on invested capital has been way higher than its weighted average cost of capital of 9.8% over the past 10 years.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>And of course, every investor in Chinese tech has to understand VIE regulatory risk.</p>\n<blockquote>\n Like many other Chinese Internet companies listed in overseas markets, Baidu operates under a&nbsp;\n <b>variable interest entity structure</b>&nbsp;designed to let companies bypass Chinese legal restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Baidu's foreign investors essentially hold shares of Baidu's VIE domiciled in the Cayman Islands.\n <b>We don't expect any legal challenges to VIE structures by the Chinese government</b>&nbsp;and believe that Baidu will consider a China depositary receipt listing in the future.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n However, if the legitimacy of Baidu's related VIE is found to violate applicable law or regulation, Chinese regulatory authorities might take action, including revoking the business and operating licenses of Baidu's subsidiaries or the VIE, or discontinuing, restricting, or restructuring Baidu's operations.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has the jurisdiction to regulate VIEs,\n <b>we believe overseas investors would have limited legal rights</b>.\" - Morningstar\n</blockquote>\n<p>VIE regulatory risk is the reason that all Chinese tech stocks are speculative, and always will be, regardless of quality (Tencent is a 12/12 speculative Ultra SWAN for this reason).</p>\n<p>How do you measure and factor in such a complex risk profile?</p>\n<p>By turning to the expert consensus.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>39 analysts that cover BIDU and collectively know it better than anyone other than management</li>\n <li>and whether or not scary headlines meaningfully alter the investment thesis</li>\n <li>2 credit rating agencies</li>\n <li>3 ESG risk rating agencies</li>\n <li>44 total experts that monitor BIDU's risk profile for DK and will let us know if the thesis is weakening, strengthening or breaks</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>ESG Material Financial Risk Analysis</b></p>\n<p><b>Essential To Fully Understanding A Company's Overall Risk Profile Especially Chinese Tech Companies</b></p>\n<p>According to the world's best risk assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers ESG important and builds it into their safety models and ratings.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>BlackRock - #1 asset manager in the world</p></li>\n <li><p>MSCI - #1 indexing giant</p></li>\n <li><p>Morningstar</p></li>\n <li><p>Reuters'/Refinitiv</p></li>\n <li><p>ISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) - #1 corporate proxy firm on earth</p></li>\n <li><p>S&amp;P</p></li>\n <li><p>Fitch</p></li>\n <li><p>Moody's</p></li>\n <li><p>DBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)</p></li>\n <li><p>AM Best (insurance industry rating agency)</p></li>\n <li><p>Bank of America - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch</p></li>\n <li><p>Bloomberg</p></li>\n <li><p>FactSet Research</p></li>\n <li>State Street - one of the largest custodial banks on earth</li>\n <li>Wells Fargo - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch</li>\n <li>NAREIT</li>\n</ul>\n<blockquote>\n Companies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n <b>fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.</b>\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n</blockquote>\n<p>Bank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Punchline: higher ROE, lower risk &amp; lower cost of capital</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see&nbsp;\n <b>higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a&nbsp;\n <b>~20% premium on P/E</b>&nbsp;on an overall and sector-neutral basis.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n <b>higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/E and P/BV.</b>\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n</blockquote>\n<p>ESG isn't about political correctness, it's about sound business practices and maximizing long-term profits by avoiding blowing up companies in the short to medium-term.</p>\n<p><b>Baidu Consensus ESG Risk Rating</b></p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Rating Agency</b></td>\n   <td><b>Industry Percentile</b></td>\n   <td><p><b>Rating Agency Classification</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>MSCI</td>\n   <td>54.0%</td>\n   <td><p>BB Below-Average</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Morningstar/Sustainalytics</td>\n   <td>40.2%</td>\n   <td><p>24.4/100 Medium Risk</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>Reuters'/Refinitiv (Combined ESG Rating)</td>\n   <td>52.6%</td>\n   <td>Satisfactory</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>S&amp;P</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n   <td>NA</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><b>Consensus</b></td>\n   <td><b>48.9%</b></td>\n   <td><b>Average</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><i>(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)</i></p>\n<p>According to Morningstar, MSCI, and Reuter's BIDU's overall handling of its long-term financial ESG risk is average, in the 49th percentile.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>which is actually the highest ESG score of any of the big China tech stocks</li>\n <li>ESG investors probably want to avoid Chinese companies</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afa54b995a935d581ed79c58fb5d4920\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"491\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/464e286a82c2e31d4b5bc2a67525beb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"229\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0b24c0262471afee43fa88dfe8da44\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>(Source: MSCI)</span></p>\n<p>Chinese companies tend to score poorly on ESG due to governance issues.</p>\n<p>But note that BIDU used to be rated CCC very poor and has seen two rating upgrades in two years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81242ba4340325a61c591a15f1e0aed7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>(Source: BIDU IR)</span></p>\n<p>In recent years BIDU did establish an ESG committee that may explain the improvement in ESG risk scores.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01d6eec0412fa9351dcb8716bbbbc1a4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"540\"><span>(Source: BIDU IR)</span></p>\n<blockquote>\n To enhance the integrity of mobile information and continue to be a leader in AI, we devote time and attention to the needs and demands of stakeholders, including suppliers, partners, governments, social institutions, users, employees, communities, and the environment itself.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We actively explore low carbon operations, sustainable economic indicators, supply chain management, intellectual property, technological innovation, compliance, data privacy, information security, user experience, personnel training, employee rights, and community engagement.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n We aim to fully integrate an ESG philosophy and standards into our management, solve social problems with technology, leverage our corporate strength and innovation capability, and contribute long-term, sustainable value to stakeholders and the human community at large.\" - BIDU ESG mission statement\n</blockquote>\n<p>BIDU is talking the talk, and apparently beginning to walk the walk as well when it comes to managing long-term risk.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5588fc730d2ccc5631369a46ea7bdd1b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"456\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b3f779db4dbecb7bcc0e0880b6f4ae3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"></p>\n<p>Morningstar rates BIDU below average compared to its peers, but on par with the likes of Spotify, Snap, and MercadoLibre. In fact, Morningstar considers BIDU's ESG risk to be in the top 36% of all companies it rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea303ae18b648b1beee3ba4bb69b599c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\"><span>(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)</span></p>\n<p>Reuters/Refinitv is the most robust ESG model we have access to. Over 450 metrics in total make up that score.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>BIDU scores rather poorly on governance and environmental issues</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The bottom line is that all companies have complex risk profiles that need to be considered before investing.</p>\n<p>The DK Safety and quality model don't ignore any risk, and BIDU's risks are firmly baked into its speculative blue-chip rating.</p>\n<p>A 32% margin of safety compensates us appropriately for all of the company's risks, and what could go wrong in the future.</p>\n<p>However, more risk-intolerant investors will want to avoid BIDU and Chinese companies in general.</p>\n<p><b>Bottom Line: It's Time To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful About Baidu</b></p>\n<p>In this highly overvalued market, it's easy to throw up your hands and shout \"everything is expensive and it's dangerous to buy any stock.\"</p>\n<p>While there are many speculative bubbles that could destroy your retirement dreams, there are ALWAYS great blue-chip bargains available.</p>\n<p>Baidu is one of those potentially exceptional long-term opportunities right now. Its 40% bear market, partially created by forced institutional margin call selling, allows anyone comfortable with its risk profile to buy the Google of China at a 32% margin of safety.</p>\n<p>Is Baidu speculative? Sure, all Chinese tech stocks are. Is it worth risking a small amount of discretionary savings to see whether Baidu can deliver on its AI/Driverless car/Streaming plans?</p>\n<p>I think so. If Baidu lives up to expectations, then it could potentially double within three years and almost triple within five.</p>\n<p>Barring the most extreme stock market bubble in history, one that surpasses the tech mania of the late '90s, there is no chance the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq will even come close.</p>\n<p>And to achieve such returns Baidu doesn't have to fly off into a speculative bubble. It merely has to return to fair value and grow at the impressive rates analysts expect and it has delivered in the past.</p>\n<p>I can't tell you what Baidu's price will do over the next year. I can tell you that the 65% upside analysts expect over the next 12 months is 100% fundamentally justified.</p>\n<p>For those comfortable with the complex risk profile inherent to Chinese tech stocks, a small position in Baidu at some of the best valuations in years is a reasonable and prudent decision.</p>\n<p>Basically, it's time to be greedy when others are fearful about the Google of China.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n4 Reasons Baidu Could Make You Rich\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 12:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4423641-4-reasons-baidu-make-you-rich","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1121605010","content_text":"Summary\n\nStrong corporate earnings and great economic data keeps the market grinding higher. The S&P 500 is 36% historically overvalued and has just 28% upside potential over the next five years.\nFortunately, whatever your goals, yield, value, growth, or total returns, something great is always on sale if you know where to look.\nBaidu is the Google of China, and planning on increasing spending by 30% annually over the coming years, focusing on AI, driverless cars, and streaming.\nIn recent weeks it plunged 40%, partially due to forced hedge fund margin call selling. This creates a potentially exceptional opportunity to be \"greedy when others are fearful\" about this speculative hyper-growth blue-chip.\nI recently bought a starter position in Baidu, because it's 31% undervalued and analysts think it could double in the next three years, and almost triple over the next five. For anyone comfortable with the complex risk profile of Chinese tech giants, Baidu is one of the most reasonable and prudent hyper-growth blue-chips you can buy today.\n\nPhoto by DNY59/iStock via Getty Images\nOver seven years as an analyst I've studied the greatest investors in history, to see what strategies made them legends.\nGreatest Investors In History: Masters Of Financial Science\n\n\n\n\nName\nReturns\nTime Horizon\nMost Famous For\n\n\nJim Simmons (Co-Founder Renaissance Technologies)\n71.8% CAGR\n1994 to 2014 (best investing record ever recorded)\nPure Quant Based Investing\n\n\nJoel Greenblatt\n40% CAGR\n21 years at Gotham Capital\n\"Above-Average Quality Companies At Below-Average Prices\"\n\n\nPeter Lynch\n29.2% CAGR at Fidelity's Magellan Fund\n1977 to 1990 (13 years)\n\"Growth At A Reasonable Price\"\n\n\nBill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust 1990 to 2006)\n22.8% CAGR and beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years\n16 years\n\n\nWarren Buffett\n20.8% CAGR at Berkshire\n55 Years\nGreedy when others are fearful\n\n\nBenjamin Graham\n20% CAGR vs 12% S&P 500\n1934 to 1956 (22 years)\nMargin of Safety\n\n\nEdward Thorp\n20+% CAGR\nover 30 years\ninvented card counting,pure statistically-based investing\n\n\nCharlie Munger\n19.80%\n1962 to 1975\nWonderful companies at fair prices\n\n\nHoward Marks\n19% CAGR\nSince 1995\nValuation Mean Reversion\n\n\nAnne Scheiber\n18.3% CAGR\n50 years\nTurned $5K into $22 million with no formal training, purely withtax-efficient buy and hold blue-chip investing.\n\n\nJohn Templeton\n300% from 1939 to 1943, 15.8% CAGR from 1954 to 1992\n38 years\nMarket Cycles\n\n\nCarl Icahn\n14.6% CAGR vs 5.6% S&P 500\n2001 to 2016 (15 Years)\n\n\nDavid Swenson\n13.9% CAGR at Yale's Endowment (includes bonds and alternative assets) vs 10.7% S&P 500\n30 years\nAlternative Asset Allocation\n\n\nGeraldine Weiss\n11.2% vs 9.8% S&P 500\n37 years\nBest risk-adjusted track recordof any newsletter over 30 years according to Hubbert Financial Digest, popularizeddividend yield theory(the only strategy she employed)\n\n\n\nCombining these lessons, along with decades of market studies from leading research institutions and blue-chip analyst firms, I've determined that there are six fundamentals that over the long term will make you rich (assuming you have discretionary savings to invest of course).\n\nPortfolio risk-management\nsafety\nquality\nyield\ngrowth\nand value\n\nWhen combined with patience, time, and discipline, these are what made the greatest investors in history the legends they are today.\nYou and I may never match the returns of the legends, but if we practice disciplined financial science we can avoid costly mistakes, and focus on the highest probability/low-risk blue-chips.\n\n It's remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.\" - Charlie Munger\n\nThese are the \"consistently not stupid\" decisions that made Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett so successful.\nToday I want to explain why I've recently opened a starter tracking position in speculative hyper-growth blue-chip Baidu (BIDU).\n\nAll Chinese tech giants are suffering a bear market right now. But notice how Baidu recently fell 40% in a matter of weeks.\n\n Baidu was also held by now-infamous hedge fund Archegos Capital Management at that time, which blew up during the same week. When the highly levered Archegos was unable to meet a margin call, banks seized Archegos' assets, including Baidu, and sold them off in massive blocks, accelerating Baidu's plunge.\" -Motley Fool\n\nInstitutional forced selling is one of the best opportunities for prudent long-term investors to buy the world's highest quality companies at mouth-watering prices.\n\nLowe's (LOW) and Realty Income (O) both plunged 25% on March 16th, due to institutional forced selling.\nIn other words, when hedge funds get margin calls, they become the ultimate dumb money. Taking the other side of those trades can be the way to earn Buffett-like returns, through buying and holding blue-chip investing.\nSo let me explain the four reasons why I consider it time to get greedy when others are fearful on Baidu.\n\n Today I buy what others won't, so tomorrow I earn returns others can't.\"\n\n\n  - Paraphrase of Jerry Rice\n\nReason 1: A Speculative Blue-Chip Quality Company\nAccording to the 2017 studyDo Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills?by Hendrik Bessembinder of Arizona State University's W.P. Carey School of Business 52% of all stocks, lose money over time.\nThis study looked at 26,000 companies from 1926 to 2016 and found that about 12% went to zero.\n\n(Source: Bessembinder et al)\nFrom 1926 to 2016 over 3,000 US companies listed on US exchanges went bankrupt. 1,100 or about 4%, delivered 100% of net positive returns. Just 48% of stocks delivered positive returns.\nIn other words, safety and quality are what can help you avoid the value traps that don't make any money or lose all of your savings.\nThe Dividend Kings quality scores factor in 143 fundamental metrics covering\n\ndividend safety\nbalance sheet strength\nshort and long-term bankruptcy risk\naccounting and corporate fraud risk\nprofitability and business model\ncost of capital\nlong-term sustainability (ESG scores and trends from MSCI, Morningstar, and Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nmanagement quality\ndividend friendly corporate culture/income dependability\nlong-term total returns (a Ben Graham sign of quality)\n\nOur model actually includes over 1,000 metrics if you count everything factored in by eight rating agencies we use to assess fundamental risk.\nEvery metric was selected based on\n\ndecades of empirical data\nthe experience of the greatest investors in history\neight rating agencies\nand what blue-chip economists and analyst firms consider most closely correlated to a company's long-term success.\n\nBaidu's quality is 9/12 speculative blue-chip, meaning I recommend a 2.5% max risk cap position sizing.\nDividend Kings Quality Rating System\n\n\n\n\nQuality Score\nMeaning\nMax Invested Capital Risk Recommendation\nMargin Of Safety Potentially Good Buy\nStrong Buy\nVery Strong Buy\nUltra-Value Buy\n\n\n3\nTerrible, Very High Long-Term Bankruptcy Risk\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n4\nVery Poor\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n5\nPoor\n0%\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\nNA (avoid)\n\n\n6\nBelow-Average, Fallen Angels (very speculative)\n1%\n45%\n55%\n65%\n75%\n\n\n7\nAverage (Relative to S&P 500)\n2.5%\n35%\n45%\n55%\n65%\n\n\n8\nAbove-Average\n5% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n45% to 50%\n55% to 60%\n\n\n9\nBlue-Chip\n7% (unlessspeculativethen2.5%)\n20% to25%\n30% to35%\n40% to45%\n50% to55%\n\n\n10\nSWAN (a higher caliber of Blue-Chip)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n15% to 20%\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n45% to 50%\n\n\n11\nSuper SWAN (exceptionally dependable blue-chips)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n10% to 15%\n20% to 25%\n30% to 35%\n40% to 45%\n\n\n12\nUltra SWAN (as close to perfect companies as exist)\n7% (unless speculative then 2.5%)\n5% to 10%\n15% to 20%\n25% to 30%\n35% to 40%\n\n\n\nWhat exactly makes Baidu a speculative blue-chip?\nBalance Sheet Safety\n\n\n\n\nRating\nDividend Kings Safety Score (75 Safety Metric Model)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk (Average Recession)\nApproximate Dividend Cut Risk In Pandemic Level Recession\n\n\n1 (very unsafe)\n0% to 20%\nover 4%\n16+%\n\n\n2 (unsafe average)\n21% to 40%\nover 2%\n8% to 16%\n\n\n3 (average)\n41% to 60%\n2%\n4% to 8%\n\n\n4 (safe)\n61% to 80%\n1%\n2% to 4%\n\n\n5 (very safe)\n81% to 100%\n0.5%\n1% to 2%\n\n\nBIDU\n76%\nA stable rating from Fitch, A3 (A- equivalent) stable rating Moody's\n0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk\n\n\n\nLong-Term Dependability\n\n\n\n\nCompany\nDK Long-Term Dependability Score\nInterpretation\nPoints\n\n\nS&P 500/Industry Average\n58%\nAverage Dependability\n2\n\n\nNon-Dependable Companies\n31% or below\nPoor Dependability\n1\n\n\nRelatively Dependable Companies\n32% to 70%\nBelow to Above-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\nVery Dependable Companies\n71% to 80%\nVery Dependable\n3\n\n\nExceptionally Dependable Companies\n81% or higher\nExceptional Dependability\n4\n\n\nBIDU\n67%\nAbove-Average Dependability\n2\n\n\n\nOverall Quality\n\n\n\n\nBIDU\nFinal Score\nRating\n\n\nSafety\n76%\n4/5\n\n\nBusiness Model\n80%\n3/3\n\n\nDependability\n67%\n2/4\n\n\nTotal\n73%\n9/12 Speculative Blue-Chip\n\n\n\nBaidu is the 245th Highest Quality Master List Company (Out of 495) = 49th Percentile\n(Source: DK Safety & Quality Tool) updated at the end of each day, sorted by overall quality score\n\ngreen = potentially good buy or better\nblue = potentially reasonable buy\nyellow = hold\nred = potential trim/sell\n\nBIDU's 73% quality score means it's the 245th highest quality company on the DK 500 Master List. This list includes the world's highest quality companies including\n\nall dividend champions\nall dividend aristocrats\nall dividend kings\nall 12/12 Ultra SWANs (as close to perfect quality as exists on Wall Street, think wide moat aristocrats)\nnumerous global aristocrats (such as BTI, ENB, and NVS)\n\nBIDU is about average quality compared to the world's elite companies and similar in quality to such 9/12 blue-chips and, 10/12 SWANs, as\n\nQualcomm (QCOM)\nBecton, Dickinson and Company (BDX) - dividend aristocrat\nW. P. Carey (WPC)\nSonoco Products (SON) - dividend champion\nH.B. Fuller (FUL) - dividend king\nMetLife (MET)\nDigital Realty Trust (DLR)\nLeggett & Platt (LEG) - dividend aristocrat\nV.F. Corp (VFC) - dividend aristocrat\nBank of New York Mellon (BK)\n\nBaidu has a strong cash-rich balance sheet, though it is taking on extra leverage in order to fund its ambitious growth efforts.\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nIncluding leasing expenses, BIDU has 2X as much cash as debt.\nFitch and Moody's rate Baidu A stable and A3 (A- equivalent) stable outlooks, indicating 0.66% to 2.5% 30-year default/bankruptcy risk.\nAnalysts expect much higher spending in the short-term to cause leverage to increase, though rating agencies don't expect this to be permanent.\nThe key safety ratios with Baidu are the F, Z, and M scores, advanced accounting ratios created by leading research institutions that use asset ratios scanned from quarterly filings.\n\nF-score measures short-term bankruptcy risk\nZ-score measures 2-year bankruptcy risk (with 84% to 92% historical accuracy)\nM-score measures accounting fraud risk (with 76% historical accuracy)\n\n7/9 is very safe on the F-score = very low short-term bankruptcy risk.\n3.59 vs 3+ very safe and 9.51 historical, confirms the A-credit ratings and low long-term risk of losing all your money.\nAnd the M-score of -2.42 indicates a significantly less than 17.5% probability that Baidu is cooking its books.\n\n(Source: Gurufocus)\nBIDU's historically unsafe M-score has been improving and became safe at the end of 2014 and has remained so for the last seven years.\n\nits safety and quality score still get dinged though because we factor in every important metric so we don't miss any warning signs\n\nThe M-score is 76% historically accurate at catching accounting fraud and 82.5% accurate at finding companies with honest accounting.\nCombined with its credit ratings and risk ratings from 5 different rating agencies, plus its auditors, I can say with relatively high confidence that Baidu is not the next Luckin Coffee.\nQuality is a proven alpha factor, one of seven that beats the market over the long term.\n\nOn Wall Street, profitability over time is the most accurate proxy for quality.\n\ncredit ratings are one of the best qualitative quality proxies\n\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nBaidu's profitability is historically in the top 20% of its peers, confirming a wide and stable moat.\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nIndustry Percentile\nMajor Interactive Media Companies More Profitable Than BIDU (Out of 543)\n\n\nOperating Margin\n67.35\n177\n\n\nNet Margin\n81.26\n102\n\n\nReturn On Equity\n67.86\n175\n\n\nReturn On Assets\n68.47\n171\n\n\nReturn On Capital\n69.61\n165\n\n\nAverage\n70.91\n158\n\n\n\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nOver the last year, increased growth spending has reduced profitability to the top 29% of peers, though that's expected to recover in the future.\n\nfor example, returns on equity are expected to rise 10% by 2024\n\nJoel Greenblatt defined quality by return on capital, his gold standard proxy for quality and moatiness.\n\noperating income (EBIT)/operating capital (the money it takes to run the business for a year)\n\nGreenblatt's entire legendary track record, 40% annual returns for 21 years, was done by combining high ROC with low valuations.\n(Source: Gurufocus Premium)\nEven with heavy growth spending in recent years, Baidu's returns on capital are very impressive.\nThe average Master List company has 88% ROC.\nThe average aristocrat 83%.\nThe average Ultra SWAN 87%.\nOver the past year, BIDU's ROC has been 103% and in Q4 it was 95%.\nAnalysts expect that in the next few years, ROC will revert back to its historical 205%.\nA level of profitability that, according to Joel Greenblatt, would make BIDU one of the highest quality companies in the world.\nBaidu's future growth is expected to come from aggressive investments into driverless cars (long-term) and AI and streaming in the short and medium term.\nBaidu Growth Spending Consensus Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nSG&A\nR&D\nCapex\nTotal Growth Spending\nSales\nGrowth Spending/Sales\n\n\n2020\n$2,792\n$3,016\n$993\n$4,009\n$16,548\n24.23%\n\n\n2021\n$3,574\n$3,554\n$1,893\n$5,447\n$19,517\n27.91%\n\n\n2022\n$3,974\n$4,062\n$2,220\n$6,282\n$22,235\n28.25%\n\n\n2023\n$5,049\n$5,858\n$2,719\n$8,577\n$25,258\n33.96%\n\n\n2024\nNA\nNA\n$1,504\nNA\n$30,071\nNA\n\n\n2025\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\n2026\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\nNA\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n21.83%\n24.77%\n10.94%\n28.85%\n16.10%\nNA\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nHistorically Baidu spends about 17% of its revenue on growth. By 2023 that's expected to double.\nTotal growth spending is expected to grow at almost 30% annually for the next three years.\nBaidu Consensus Profit Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nSales\nFCF\nEBITDA\nEBIT (Operating Income)\nNet Income\n\n\n2020\n$16,548\n$2,106\n$4,251\n$2,216\n$3,473\n\n\n2021\n$19,517\n$3,947\n$4,734\n$2,629\n$2,760\n\n\n2022\n$22,235\n$5,013\n$5,812\n$3,400\n$3,381\n\n\n2023\n$25,258\n$5,854\n$6,730\n$4,163\n$4,226\n\n\n2024\n$30,071\n$7,421\nNA\n$6,195\n$5,268\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n16.10%\n37.01%\n16.55%\n29.31%\n10.98%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nManagement's guidance, which is the basis for these consensus forecasts, is for strong revenue growth. Net margins are expected to compress but cash flows are expected to soar.\nFree cash flow, the ultimate source of all intrinsic value according to Ben Graham and Warren Buffett, is expected to more than triple by 2024.\nBaidu Consensus Margin Forecast\n\n\n\n\nYear\nFCF Margin\nEBITDA Margin\nEBIT (Operating) Margin\nNet Margin\n\n\n2020\n12.7%\n25.7%\n13.4%\n21.0%\n\n\n2021\n20.2%\n24.3%\n13.5%\n14.1%\n\n\n2022\n22.5%\n26.1%\n15.3%\n15.2%\n\n\n2023\n23.2%\n26.6%\n16.5%\n16.7%\n\n\n2024\n24.7%\nNA\n20.6%\n17.5%\n\n\nAnnualized Growth\n18.01%\n1.23%\n11.37%\n-4.42%\n\n\n\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBaidu's profitability is ultimately expected to improve, though net margins won't until its major growth initiatives are over.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU ended 2020 with $5.6 billion in cash, and that's expected to rise to $22 billion by 2023, and potentially nearly $60 billion by 2024.\nThat may not be as impressive as some tech companies ($601 billion by 2026 for Amazon), but it does mean that Baidu's war chest and financial flexibility to pivot towards AI, driverless cars, and streaming will grow significantly in future years.\nBaidu Medium-Term Growth Consensus\n\n\n\n\nMetric\n2020 Actual Growth\n2021 consensus growth\n2022 consensus growth\n2023 consensus growth\n\n\nEPS\n31%\n7%\n18%\n16%\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF)\n124%\n22%\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n-14%\n59%\n31%\n7%\n\n\nFree cash flow\n96%\n85%\n22%\nNA\n\n\nEBITDA\n-18%\n53%\n27%\n24%\n\n\nEBIT (operating income)\n130%\n26%\n26%\n19%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIn the next few years, Baidu's growth efforts are expected to result in strong growth. But what's attracted me to the Google of China, is that this hyper-growth is expected to continue for many years to come.\nReason 2: Long-Term Hyper-Growth Potential\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU's AI, streaming, and driverless car investments are showing up in \"other services\" and that revenue is expected to grow almost 50% in 3 years.\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\n\n16.0% to 17.5% long-term growth consensus range\n6% to 28% growth consensus range adjusted for historical margin of error\n\n\nThe margins of error on BIDU forecasts are very wide. 33% of the time it grows much faster than expected, 33% of the time much slower, and 33% of the about as fast as expected.\n\nmargins of error over the last decade (excluding outliers) are 60% to the downside, 55% to the upside\nthe long-term growth consensus range: 16% to 18% CAGR\nthe margin of error adjusted long-term analyst growth consensus range: 6% to 28% CAGR\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU's historical growth is from -9% to 52%. So relatively high growth uncertainty, more so than most tech blue-chips.\n\nand thus the $650 investment vs $10K in GOOG, $89K in BABA, and $200K in Amazon\n\nHowever, analysts expect growth to be similar to the 20% growth of the last decade.\nAnd at today's high margin of safety, we're likely getting a good deal to compensate for BIDU's growth uncertainty and complex risk profile.\nReason 3: Highly Attractive Valuation\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU growing at the rates analysts expect in the future has historically been valued at 23X to 26X earnings.\n(Source: FactSet Research Terminal)\nBIDU is currently trading at 20.4X forward earnings and 13.6X EV/EBITDA.\nEV/EBITDA is market cap + net debt/EBITDA and is Joel Greenblatt's and private equity's favorite valuation metric.\nBaidu's 13-year median EV/EBITDA is 23.2, and its trading at 13.6, implying a potential 42% discount to fair value.\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nHistorical Fair Value (12-years)\n2020\n2021\n2022\n2023\n\n\nEarnings\n25.0\n$243.87\n$261.27\n$307.91\n$357.77\n\n\nOwner Earnings (Buffett smoothed out FCF) - 10 yr\n23.5\n$324.46\n$394.46\nNA\nNA\n\n\nOperating Cash Flow\n19.9\n$202.33\n$321.22\n$420.37\n$448.64\n\n\nFree Cash Flow (11-yr)\n27.5\n$220.77\n$408.53\n$497.28\nNA\n\n\nEBITDA\n22.0\n$190.60\n$291.18\n$370.80\n$459.36\n\n\nEBIT (operating income)\n34.5\n$207.78\n$261.14\n$328.78\n$392.83\n\n\nAverage\n$224.60\n$312.71\n$373.81\n$410.40\n\n\nCurrent Price\n$215.83\n\n\nDiscount To Fair Value\n3.91%\n30.98%\n42.26%\n47.41%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value\n4%\n45%\n73%\n90%\n\n\n\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nBIDU is about 31% historically undervalued right now, meaning that if it grows as expected through 2023 and returns to fair value that's 90% upside potential.\n\n$350 is the median 12-month price target\n65% upside potential over the next 12 months according to analysts\n\nAnd that guestimate is 100% justified by fundamentals.\n\n\n\n\nRating\nMargin Of Safety For Speculative 9/12 Blue-Chip Quality Companies\n2020 Price\n2021 Price\n2022 Price\n\n\nPotentially Reasonable Buy\n0%\n$224.60\n$312.71\n$373.81\n\n\nPotentially Good Buy\n25%\n$168.45\n$234.53\n$280.35\n\n\nPotentially Strong Buy\n35%\n$145.99\n$203.26\n$242.97\n\n\nPotentially Very Strong Buy\n45%\n$123.53\n$171.99\n$205.59\n\n\nPotentially Ultra-Value Buy\n55%\n$101.07\n$140.72\n$168.21\n\n\nCurrently\n$213.41\n5%\n32%\n43%\n\n\nUpside To Fair Value (Not Including Dividends)\n5%\n47%\n75%\n\n\n\nAt a 32% margin of safety, Baidu, despite all its risks, is a potentially good buy for more risk-tolerant investors.\nBut the ability to potentially enjoy monster short-term gains is just the cherry on top with Baidu.\nReason 4: Eye-Popping Long-Term Return Potential\nHere is a reasonable idea of what kind of returns you can expect buying BIDU today.\nBaidu 2023 Consensus Return Potential\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIf BAIDU grows as analysts expect through 2023, and returns to historical fair value, then analysts expect\n\n75% total returns\n23.3% CAGR returns\nvs -1.3% CAGR S&P 500\n\nFrom its 31% discount, BIDU has the potential to outperform the 36% overvalued S&P 500 by 78% over the next three years.\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nCorporate earnings growth estimates are rising by the day. Yet the market has already priced in three years of earnings growth totaling 62% or 17.4% CAGR.\nOver the long term, BIDU's return outlook is also very strong.\nBaidu 2026 Consensus Return Potential\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nIf BIDU grows as analysts expect through 2026 and returns to historical fair value you could expect\n\n179% total returns\n19.8% CAGR\nvs 4.5% CAGR S&P 500\n4.4X better than the market's consensus return potential\n\nIf BIDU delivers as analysts expect, then buying today could almost triple your money in the next five years.\n(Source: F.A.S.T. Graphs, FactSet Research)\nOver the long term, analysts expect\n\n0% yield + 17.5% growth = 17.5% CAGR very long-term total returns (after valuation changes cancel out)\n6% to 28% CAGR range\nvs 7.8% for the S&P and 10.8% for the dividend aristocrats\n\nBaidu Total Returns Since 2006\n\n(Source: Portfolio Visualizer)\nIn the last 15 years, BIDU has turned $1 into $26, adjusted for inflation, and crushed the market with 8X more wealth compounding.\nIt's expected to grow slightly slower than in the past, but the ability to potentially enjoy 17.5% hyper-growth for many years is incredibly attractive.\nBaidu Vs S&P 500 Vs Dividend Aristocrat Inflation-Adjusted Total Return Forecast: $650 Initial Investment\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\n5.8% LT Inflation-Adjusted Returns (S&P Consensus)\n8.8% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (aristocrat consensus)\n15.5% Inflation-Adjusted Returns (BIDU consensus)\n\n\n5\n$1,325.65\n$1,524.56\n$1,336.05\n\n\n10\n$1,757.34\n$2,324.28\n$2,746.21\n\n\n15\n$2,329.62\n$3,543.51\n$5,644.73\n\n\n20\n$3,088.26\n$5,402.29\n$11,602.54\n\n\n25\n$4,093.94\n$8,236.11\n$23,848.60\n\n\n30\n$5,427.13\n$12,556.45\n$49,019.95\n\n\n35\n$7,194.46\n$19,143.06\n$100,758.76\n\n\n40\n$9,537.33\n$29,184.74\n$207,106.02\n\n\n45\n$12,643.14\n$44,493.88\n$425,699.02\n\n\n50\n$16,760.36\n$67,833.58\n$875,009.10\n\n\n\nThe ability to grow 2X to 3X as fast as the S&P 500 or aristocrats creates the potential for wealth compounding on a massive scale. Look at how large my $650 initial BIDU investment can grow, assuming analysts are right and management delivers the expected growth over time.\n\n\n\n\nTime Frame (Years)\nRatio S&P vs Aristocrat Consensus\nRatio S&P vs BIDU consensus\n\n\n5\n1.15\n1.01\n\n\n10\n1.32\n1.56\n\n\n15\n1.52\n2.42\n\n\n20\n1.75\n3.76\n\n\n25\n2.01\n5.83\n\n\n30\n2.31\n9.03\n\n\n35\n2.66\n14.01\n\n\n40\n3.06\n21.72\n\n\n45\n3.52\n33.67\n\n\n50\n4.05\n52.21\n\n\n\nOver the long term, the aristocrats are expected to quadruple the S&P 500's wealth compounding. Baidu could potentially deliver 52X as much wealth as the S&P 500.\nIs Baidu likely to grow 17.5% for 50 years? Probably not. But even if it can deliver just 10 to 20 years of hyper-growth, when combined with its attractive current valuation, that's worthy of a small initial investment in my book.\nRisk Profile: Why Baidu Isn't Right For Everyone\nThere are no risk-free companies and no company is right for everyone. You have to be comfortable with the fundamental risk profile.\nFundamental Risk Summary\n\n We think Baidu faces high levels of risk, given intense competition along with questions as to whether its AI-related investment will generate satisfactory returns.\n\n\n Though Baidu is the largest search engine in China, it is competing with the other two Internet giants, Tencent and Alibaba, and Google’s potential return to the Chinese search market is also a threat.\n\n\n Regarding the search engine business, Tencent invested in Sogou, and Alibaba acquired UC Web, which owns a mobile search engine, Shenma. Competition has extended to each key area of mobile Internet usage, such as navigation, O2O services, online video services, and so on. Baidu’s margins have been significantly dragged down by aggressive spending in video content and O2O marketing but recovered to 18.5% in 2017 from 14.2% in 2016 as Baidu divested margin-dilutive businesses.\n\n\n The major Internet companies in China have been investing in AI-related business, such as cloud computing, voice and image recognition, and autonomously driven cars. At the current stage,\n it is difficult to predict whether Baidu will be the final winner in AI and whether the returns will reward its investment.\n\n\n In addition, regulatory risk is a concern. Following the Wei Zexi incident in early 2016, Chinese authorities launched new regulations for online search and advertising, which clearly defined paid search results as advertising. These regulations took effect on Sept. 1, 2016. Given stricter standards for online advertisers, Baidu’s online marketing services revenue growth declined to 1% in 2016. If the local authorities release more policies regarding Internet business, such as online advertising and online finance, Baidu’s revenue could be negatively affected.\n\n\n Since 2017, Baidu has discontinued the disclosure of MAUs for its mobile search and mobile maps, which is possibly due to weaker numbers.\" - Morningstar\n\nBIDU's pivot into the technology of the future is potentially like Satya Nadella taking MSFT into the pure cloud-driven strategy.\nOr it could be like IBM's Watson-based flaying, major promise but poor execution over time.\n\n Baidu has the urgency to strengthen its mobile business because it has not developed another industry-leading business other than its mobile search app for years.\n\n\n Baidu’s share of mobile time spend reduced to 6.9% in March 2019 from 7.3% year over year. Baidu positions its flagship Baidu app (173 million daily average users in March 2019) as a \"super\" app that can serve a wide range of users' needs, such as reading, watching videos, shopping, transportation tickets, food services, and so on, but we believe the app is less of a super app compared with Tencent’s Wechat (1.1 billion monthly average users).\n\n\n It has copied the strategies of its peers by launching a mini-program (181 million MAU in March 2019) and short video apps (sevenfold year over year increase to 98 million MAU in March 2019 as per Questmobile).\" - Morningstar\n\nBaidu has struggled more than most Chinese tech giants to pivot and adapt to the disruption risk that is ever-present in this industry.\n\n We have not factored in the meaningful commercialization of Baidu’s AI-based services, such as voice assistant platform DuerOS, autonomous driving platform Apollo and artificial intelligence cloud services.\n\n\nSearch is driven by an artificial intelligence-powered algorithm, giving Baidu a good foundation in this segment.Baidu is also\n one of the largest and earliest companies to start AI investments in China.Currently, Baidu uses AI to recommend feeds to the app’s users to generate advertising revenue.\n\n\n IQiyi, Baidu’s online video platform, has been a key growth driver stemming from increasing willingness to pay for premium content in China and continuous advertising demand on \n iQiyi. It accounted for 29% of Baidu’s revenue in the first quarter of 2019.\n\n\n In the near term, Baidu will invest heavily in its mobile business in terms of sales and marketing, and traffic acquisition. While meaningful monetization is uncertain, we expect Baidu to increase or maintain its research and development expenditure, which is at 17% of sales in the first quarter of 2019. To fend off major competitor Tencent Video, iQiyi needs to continue to invest in premium content. Therefore, we expect Baidu’s margins to be under pressure in the near term.\" - Morningstar\n\nBut while Baidu has made some questionable investments over the years, its current focus on AI is a logical and prudent one.\nBaidu's competitive advantage in AI stems from being the first mover in Chinese search. It has the most data to feed into its machine learning algorithms, though rivals like Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) are working hard to eat its lunch.\n\n Baidu generated 68% of its revenue during the year from its online marketing services segment, which mainly sells ads. The segment's revenue has declined year over year for seven straight quarters.\n\n\n That ongoing slowdown is troubling since Baidu's advertising rivals -- like \n Tencent and \n Bilibili --both expanded their advertising businesses over the past year. It also indicates people are spending less time on traditional online searches and more time on other digital platforms.\" - Leo Sun,Motley Fool\n\nIn recent years, BIDU's market share in digital ads has been declining, which means unlike companies like JD, BABA, and TCEHY, it's attempting to pivot from a position of weakness, not strength.\nIt has the resources to invest heavily and hopefully achieve the kinds of impressive growth rates analysts expect. But success is far from guaranteed.\nThis is why I've bought a starter 3 share tracking position in Baidu.\n\ncompared to a $10,000 position in Alphabet (GOOG)\nand an $89,000 investment into Alibaba\nand a $200,000 investment into Amazon(AMZN)\n\nAnd of course, we can't forget about the risks surrounding management and governance.\n\n Robin Yanhong Li, the founder of Baidu, has been the chairman of the board since its inception and has served as the CEO since 2004. Before that, Li worked at IDD Information Services and Infoseek in Silicon Valley, with a special focus on product development in Internet search engines. Li owned 16.4% of the company as of January 2020, and all directors and management together owned 16.5%. Jennifer Xinzhe Li stepped down as CFO in 2017 and was replaced by Herman Yu, formerly of Weibo...\n\n\n Baidu had reputational issues, with the Wei Zexi medical incident being the largest scandal, which led to a management restructuring in 2016. Three vice presidents were dismissed. Qi Lu joined Baidu in January 2017 as group president and COO but resigned in June 2018. Lu has a solid record in the U.S. technology industry, and Baidu’s financial performance substantially improved during his appointment.\n\n\n This incident once again raised the market’s concern about Baidu’s turnover of key executives, including ex-chief scientist Andrew Ng and ex-senior vice president Jin Wang. In May 2019, Baidu announced the departure of senior vice president Hailong Xiang, who had been with Baidu since 2005. His departure is believed to be a result of Baidu’s inability to develop another successful and profitable business outside of search.\n\n\n The introduction of a senior management retirement plan and a young leadership development program signifies Baidu’s determination to revamp its management and reinvigorate its businesses in the new Internet era. Shen Dou leads the mobile ecosystem group now. He has a technical background and puts more focus on more user experience versus maximizing sales. There are now more interactions between the sales, commercial product team, and the user experience team, which we think is better for Baidu’s sustainability.\" - Morningstar\n\nUnlike the management at Tencent, which Morningstar considers \"exemplary\" or the \"deep bench\" at Alibaba, BIDU has struggled with management in recent years.\n\n B shares, which are owned by the CEO and his affiliates, have 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares. Therefore,\n Li controls 55.4% of the equity voting rights as of January 2020.As a result, these Class B shareholders have a disproportionately large influence over key matters such as the election of directors and significant corporate transactions, including mergers and the sale of the company or assets.\" - Morningstar\n\nBIDU's founder and CEO controls 55% of the vote and thus is effectively king of Baidu. If shareholders don't like what management does, they have no recourse other than selling.\nManagement isn't a poor capital allocator, but in recent years it hasn't been firing on all cylinders when it comes to pivoting to growth catalysts as easily as JD, BABA, and TCEHY have.\n\n Some of Baidu’s acquisitions and new business developments have proved unsuccessful.\n\n\n These include the acquisition of 59% of Nuomi, a group-buying service provider, for $160 million in 2013 and the remaining stake in 2014 for an undisclosed sum, and Raven Tech for $90 million in 2017...\n\n\n Baidu’s investments in online-to-offline businesses such as deliveries and Nuomi led to its \n operating margin declining from 26.1% in 2014 to 14.2% in 2016 but they did not gain as much scale as Meituan.\n\n\n However, we refrain from giving a Poor stewardship rating to Baidu for several reasons.\n\n\nBaidu made the right decision in moving away from the O2O businesses, which led to margin improvement to 18.5% in 2017and investing in mobile and AI, which we believe is sensible given that they complement its strong core search business.\n\n\n Also, Baidu’s return on invested capital has been way higher than its weighted average cost of capital of 9.8% over the past 10 years.\" - Morningstar\n\nAnd of course, every investor in Chinese tech has to understand VIE regulatory risk.\n\n Like many other Chinese Internet companies listed in overseas markets, Baidu operates under a \n variable interest entity structure designed to let companies bypass Chinese legal restrictions on foreign ownership in certain sectors.\n\n\n Baidu's foreign investors essentially hold shares of Baidu's VIE domiciled in the Cayman Islands.\n We don't expect any legal challenges to VIE structures by the Chinese government and believe that Baidu will consider a China depositary receipt listing in the future.\n\n\n However, if the legitimacy of Baidu's related VIE is found to violate applicable law or regulation, Chinese regulatory authorities might take action, including revoking the business and operating licenses of Baidu's subsidiaries or the VIE, or discontinuing, restricting, or restructuring Baidu's operations.\n\n\n Since the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has the jurisdiction to regulate VIEs,\n we believe overseas investors would have limited legal rights.\" - Morningstar\n\nVIE regulatory risk is the reason that all Chinese tech stocks are speculative, and always will be, regardless of quality (Tencent is a 12/12 speculative Ultra SWAN for this reason).\nHow do you measure and factor in such a complex risk profile?\nBy turning to the expert consensus.\n\n39 analysts that cover BIDU and collectively know it better than anyone other than management\nand whether or not scary headlines meaningfully alter the investment thesis\n2 credit rating agencies\n3 ESG risk rating agencies\n44 total experts that monitor BIDU's risk profile for DK and will let us know if the thesis is weakening, strengthening or breaks\n\nESG Material Financial Risk Analysis\nEssential To Fully Understanding A Company's Overall Risk Profile Especially Chinese Tech Companies\nAccording to the world's best risk assessors, ESG metrics are a critical component of a company's overall risk profile. Here's who considers ESG important and builds it into their safety models and ratings.\n\nBlackRock - #1 asset manager in the world\nMSCI - #1 indexing giant\nMorningstar\nReuters'/Refinitiv\nISS (Institutional Shareholder Services) - #1 corporate proxy firm on earth\nS&P\nFitch\nMoody's\nDBRS (Canadian credit rating agency)\nAM Best (insurance industry rating agency)\nBank of America - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch\nBloomberg\nFactSet Research\nState Street - one of the largest custodial banks on earth\nWells Fargo - one of the 16 most accurate economic/analyst teams in the world according to Market Watch\nNAREIT\n\n\n Companies with strong ESG profiles may be better positioned for future challenges and experience\n fewer instances of bribery, corruption, and fraud.\" - MSCI (Emphasis added)\n\nBank of America's research finds that ESG metrics also help improve the long-term profitability and outcomes at companies.\n\nPunchline: higher ROE, lower risk & lower cost of capital\n\n\n We find that companies with greater gender diversity at the board/management level typically see \n higher ROE and lower earnings risk than peers.\n\n\n Moreover, based on disclosure data from ICE, we find gender diversity in management is associated with a \n ~20% premium on P/E on an overall and sector-neutral basis.\n\n\n Ethnic and racial workforce diversity shows similarly strong results:\n higher ROE, lower risk, and significant premia on P/E and P/BV.\" - Bank of America (emphasis original)\n\nESG isn't about political correctness, it's about sound business practices and maximizing long-term profits by avoiding blowing up companies in the short to medium-term.\nBaidu Consensus ESG Risk Rating\n\n\n\n\nRating Agency\nIndustry Percentile\nRating Agency Classification\n\n\nMSCI\n54.0%\nBB Below-Average\n\n\nMorningstar/Sustainalytics\n40.2%\n24.4/100 Medium Risk\n\n\nReuters'/Refinitiv (Combined ESG Rating)\n52.6%\nSatisfactory\n\n\nS&P\nNA\nNA\n\n\nConsensus\n48.9%\nAverage\n\n\n\n(Sources: MSCI, Morningstar, Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nAccording to Morningstar, MSCI, and Reuter's BIDU's overall handling of its long-term financial ESG risk is average, in the 49th percentile.\n\nwhich is actually the highest ESG score of any of the big China tech stocks\nESG investors probably want to avoid Chinese companies\n\n\n(Source: MSCI)\nChinese companies tend to score poorly on ESG due to governance issues.\nBut note that BIDU used to be rated CCC very poor and has seen two rating upgrades in two years.\n(Source: BIDU IR)\nIn recent years BIDU did establish an ESG committee that may explain the improvement in ESG risk scores.\n(Source: BIDU IR)\n\n To enhance the integrity of mobile information and continue to be a leader in AI, we devote time and attention to the needs and demands of stakeholders, including suppliers, partners, governments, social institutions, users, employees, communities, and the environment itself.\n\n\n We actively explore low carbon operations, sustainable economic indicators, supply chain management, intellectual property, technological innovation, compliance, data privacy, information security, user experience, personnel training, employee rights, and community engagement.\n\n\n We aim to fully integrate an ESG philosophy and standards into our management, solve social problems with technology, leverage our corporate strength and innovation capability, and contribute long-term, sustainable value to stakeholders and the human community at large.\" - BIDU ESG mission statement\n\nBIDU is talking the talk, and apparently beginning to walk the walk as well when it comes to managing long-term risk.\n\nMorningstar rates BIDU below average compared to its peers, but on par with the likes of Spotify, Snap, and MercadoLibre. In fact, Morningstar considers BIDU's ESG risk to be in the top 36% of all companies it rates.\n(Source: Reuters'/Refinitiv)\nReuters/Refinitv is the most robust ESG model we have access to. Over 450 metrics in total make up that score.\n\nBIDU scores rather poorly on governance and environmental issues\n\nThe bottom line is that all companies have complex risk profiles that need to be considered before investing.\nThe DK Safety and quality model don't ignore any risk, and BIDU's risks are firmly baked into its speculative blue-chip rating.\nA 32% margin of safety compensates us appropriately for all of the company's risks, and what could go wrong in the future.\nHowever, more risk-intolerant investors will want to avoid BIDU and Chinese companies in general.\nBottom Line: It's Time To Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful About Baidu\nIn this highly overvalued market, it's easy to throw up your hands and shout \"everything is expensive and it's dangerous to buy any stock.\"\nWhile there are many speculative bubbles that could destroy your retirement dreams, there are ALWAYS great blue-chip bargains available.\nBaidu is one of those potentially exceptional long-term opportunities right now. Its 40% bear market, partially created by forced institutional margin call selling, allows anyone comfortable with its risk profile to buy the Google of China at a 32% margin of safety.\nIs Baidu speculative? Sure, all Chinese tech stocks are. Is it worth risking a small amount of discretionary savings to see whether Baidu can deliver on its AI/Driverless car/Streaming plans?\nI think so. If Baidu lives up to expectations, then it could potentially double within three years and almost triple within five.\nBarring the most extreme stock market bubble in history, one that surpasses the tech mania of the late '90s, there is no chance the S&P 500 and Nasdaq will even come close.\nAnd to achieve such returns Baidu doesn't have to fly off into a speculative bubble. It merely has to return to fair value and grow at the impressive rates analysts expect and it has delivered in the past.\nI can't tell you what Baidu's price will do over the next year. I can tell you that the 65% upside analysts expect over the next 12 months is 100% fundamentally justified.\nFor those comfortable with the complex risk profile inherent to Chinese tech stocks, a small position in Baidu at some of the best valuations in years is a reasonable and prudent decision.\nBasically, it's time to be greedy when others are fearful about the Google of China.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165829053,"gmtCreate":1624117657972,"gmtModify":1703829045056,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165829053","repostId":"2144154703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144154703","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624085563,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144154703?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-19 14:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"SPAC，一场全球都摸着石头过河的财富盲盒游戏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144154703","media":"智通财经网","summary":"这段时间，SPAC的狂热已经引起市场警惕，美国监管层正在有意进行监管规则的调整。长期来看，相关政策调整、流动性大幅收紧等都将是SPAC未来发展的重大不确定性因素。","content":"<p>经历了一季度的火爆，短短2个月，狂热的SPAC就凉了。2021年3月，SPAC IPO数量攀至110个的历史顶峰之后，4月瞬间悬崖式下跌至13个，5月为19个。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcc02404cd4816379f86b57e2674e2aa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"616\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">最近一年单月SPAC IPO数量,制图：钛媒体</p>\n<p>热钱凶猛，让SPAC从2020年开始一路狂奔，如今市场开始恢复常态。2020年一整年，共有248家SPAC公司在美股上市，募资总额达到840多亿美元，超过SPAC往年的IPO募资总和。2021年一季度市场依旧火爆，SPAC IPO数已达308起，超越去年全年总和，募资规模达996亿美元，远超传统IPO。</p>\n<p>SPAC似有颠覆传统IPO市场的趋势，但物极必反，市场见顶的迹象初露端倪。这段时间，SPAC的狂热已经引起市场警惕，美国监管层正在有意进行监管规则的调整。长期来看，相关政策调整、流动性大幅收紧等都将是SPAC未来发展的重大不确定性因素。</p>\n<p>作为一个创新型的金融工具，对SPAC支持和反对的声音同样高涨。事实上，包括美国在内的世界各国都在“摸着石头过河”，总体上，都处于探索、完善的过程。回顾SPAC的前世今生，SPAC一直在通过不断优化制度、完善交易规则来适应资本市场的发展。</p>\n<p>断崖式下跌，单月SPACIPO数量从110到14</p>\n<p>最近两个月，SEC(美国证券交易委员会)发布的一则针对SPAC(特殊目的收购公司)的新会计指南，让SPAC市场瞬间恢复了冷静。4月12日，美国SEC宣布SPAC出售的认股权证(Warrants)应分类为负债而不是股权。</p>\n<p>Warrant是公众投资人将来可以按固定价格兑换一股普通股的权利。从会计的角度上看，此前，该类认股权证被归为“股本”，SPAC的投资者以特定的价格购买以此获得巨大收益。</p>\n<p>既是负债，发起人就需要定期核算认股权证的价值，这明显给追求简便的SPAC发起人增加了手续上的负担。这意味着，如果认股权证的价值波动较大，受影响的SPAC将必须要重述他们的财务业绩。也就是说，如果你已经做完了财报，发起了反向并购申请，开始走并购程序，那么你可能要按照新要求重新做一遍财报。</p>\n<p>此举对市场的影响犹如当头泼了一盆冷水。统计显示，4月新设立的SPAC数量发生骤减，从3月的历史峰值110个断崖式下跌至4月的13个，5月也仅有19个。很多公司暂停了SPAC上市申请，并开始就会计准则作出了重新调整。</p>\n<p>2020年以来，SPAC市场空前火爆，已经引发海外监管机构的警惕，此前SEC就已多次警示SPAC的投资者，4月初，SEC的一位官员表示，SPAC存在“一些重大但尚未发现的”问题。</p>\n<p>3月，SEC曾警告投资者，投资SPAC不应仅因为SPAC发起人中的明星而进行投资。有市场人士更是称SPAC是“这个急功近利的IPO时代的智慧结晶，是过去十年大放水时代里囤积出大量独角兽后的解决方案，更是这一轮的泡沫之王”。</p>\n<p>“以前上市圈钱还走一下IPO流程，不如直接给韭菜发帐号吧”、“资本画饼游戏实质还是割韭菜”、“空手套白狼”，一直以来普通投资人财富盲盒游戏，SPAC上市车企已成爆雷重灾区对SPAC这种新型的金融工具的各种质疑普遍存在。</p>\n<p>财富盲盒游戏，SPAC上市车企已成爆雷重灾区</p>\n<p>监管的当头一棒之外，残酷的市场也正成为SPAC的炼金石。近日，美国多家新能源车企被曝涉嫌造假，其中大部分车企都是通过SPAC模式在2020年实现上市，而后在半年左右的时间内相继爆雷。</p>\n<p>6月16日，据外媒消息，美股上市初创新能源车企LordstownMotors宣布，公司首席执行官史蒂夫伯恩斯和首席财务官胡里奥罗德里格斯已经辞职。2020年10月，Lordstown通过SPAC在纳斯达克证券交易所上市，股票代码为 \"RIDE\"。</p>\n<p>上市首日，Lordstown股价一度上涨近20%，但今年3月，做空机构HindenburgResearch指控Lordstown使用虚假订单为其Endurance电动皮卡筹集资金。该款皮卡仍需要数年才能投入生产，但Lordstown坚称将在9月按计划开始生产该车型。</p>\n<p>半年似乎成了SPAC上市公司的一个生死命门。2020年3月，被业内视为“卡车界<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>”的Nikola Corp.宣布通过与SPAC公司VectorIQ Acquisition Corp.反向并购上市。该交易使NikolaCorp.的公司市值达到33亿美元，并筹集约5.25亿美元的运营资金。</p>\n<p>上市仅6个月后，Nikola Corp.爆雷。2020年9月，Hindenburg Research发布报告称， Nikola Corp.公司在产品及技术方面涉嫌造假，不仅该公司并未掌握氢燃料电池的制造技术，其半挂式卡车、电池技术、氢气生产、Nikola One甚至其数十亿美元大订单等诸多方面也存在数十个虚假声明。报告发布后，Nikola执行董事长Trevor Milton宣布了辞职。</p>\n<p>公司高层集体辞职，也拯救不了一路下跌的股价。目前，Nikola Corp.股价在15美元/股上下徘徊，相比被做空前66美元/股的峰值股价已跌去近80%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ec57d3a166878fc396f28f04648875f\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"555\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Nikola Corp.股价走势</p>\n<p>一直以来，上市程序更精简，审查标准更宽松都是SPAC模式备受市场推崇的主要原因。但这也是一把双刃剑，由于上市流程简单、监管相对较松，SPAC上市模式相对缺乏投资银行的严格把关，因而埋藏了较大风险，比如上市标的虚假注资、业务主体不合上市规范等。</p>\n<p>潜在高额回报对创始人和公众投资者具有很强的吸引力，但SPAC财富盲盒游戏的密码只掌握在一小部分人手里。</p>\n<p>“SPAC的本质是创始人的资源变现，因此SPAC在股权结构的设置上天然赋予了创始人以较低成本获取较高比例股权的投资杠杆。”开源证券孙金钜研究团队表示。创始人仅需2.5万美元即可成立一个SPAC，折算下来，普通股每股价格不超过2美分。但“SPAC收购标的具有高度不确定性，公众投资者参与的是潜在收益率颇高的盲盒游戏，而游戏的胜率取决于SPAC创始人”。</p>\n<p>市场快见顶了?30年间SPAC一直在不断演变</p>\n<p>作为一个创新型的金融工具，事实上包括美国在内的世界各国都在“摸着石头过河”，总体上，都处于探索、完善的过程。</p>\n<p>过去的一年把SPAC彻底推上了全球资本市场的风口浪尖。单是2020年一年，共有248家SPAC上市，募资超830亿美元，占美国全年IPO的半壁江山。今年前三个月，SPAC的上市数量和募资金额已经超过去年全年。PE巨头、商界大佬及明星富豪等纷纷涉足SPAC，让这场SPAC快速“出圈”。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3935d6372e6d7a6d74f92c250589da9\" tg-width=\"648\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">为了抢夺优质公司，世界各大交易所也在积极推进和完善SPAC机制。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">新加坡交易所</a>3月31日就引入SPAC机制向公众展开了咨询，预计最快在2021年年中正式公布SPAC框架。有媒体报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">香港交易所</a>也正考虑制定适合香港市场的SPAC框架，目标是在年底迎来首批SPAC。据悉，香港监管机构考虑制定比美国更严格的规则。</p>\n<p>在全球市场的大力推崇之下，SPAC的势头一发不可收拾。热炒之下，市场似乎在透露出见顶的信号。掌管550亿美元资产的对冲基金Marshall Wace的共同创始人、在英国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>无人不晓的大腕保罗·马歇尔(Paul Marshall)对SPAC泡沫发出警告。他说：“SPAC现象将以糟糕的结局收场，而且很多人会受害。”</p>\n<p>全球金融市场的两大投资泰斗更是毫不留情的批评SPAC。“用别人的钱来赌博。”在今年的股东大会上，巴菲特给SPAC这一上市机制下了如此定义，芒格则直接说这是一种“easy money\"(不义之财)，他不喜欢这种用来骗人投资割韭菜的东西。</p>\n<p>但是市场上也不乏支持的声音。对于美国监管层的一系列压制措施，一位名叫Steven Davidoff Solomon的市场观察人士在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYT\">纽约时报</a>上撰文表示，虽然一些SPAC过于激进或者过早上市，甚至公布错误虚假的商业计划，但是，不能否认的一点是，过去20年SPAC让小公司和新兴成长公司的IPO市场复苏起来。</p>\n<p>自从1993年，美国GKN证券将SPAC推向市场近30年来，SPAC的交易规则制度一直在不断调整完善。比如近期备受关注的另外一位对冲基金大佬Bill Ackman与环球音乐的交易。有媒体报道称Ackman旗下SPAC公司Pershing Square Tontine Holding(PSTH)正在和环球音乐(Universal Music)进行并购方面的磋商，这可能是SPAC狂潮下的最大一笔交易，合并后的新公司估值将达400亿美元。</p>\n<p>这次交易中，Ackman 衍生了一种名为SPARC(特殊目的收购权公司)的新型SPAC形式，解决了SPAC目前运作的一些缺陷，比如在交易完成之前不占用投资者资金。这被认为是SPAC的第三代演变。</p>\n<p>长期来看，美联储的加息政策也是悬在SPAC头上的一把利剑，一旦流动性收紧，二级市场潮水退出，裸泳者也将浮出水面。虽然美国联邦储备委员会在6月16日宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%之间不变，符合市场预期。但美联储多数官员预测，加息最早会在2023年到来。</p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPAC，一场全球都摸着石头过河的财富盲盒游戏</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPAC，一场全球都摸着石头过河的财富盲盒游戏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-19 14:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497190.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>经历了一季度的火爆，短短2个月，狂热的SPAC就凉了。2021年3月，SPAC IPO数量攀至110个的历史顶峰之后，4月瞬间悬崖式下跌至13个，5月为19个。最近一年单月SPAC IPO数量,制图：钛媒体\n热钱凶猛，让SPAC从2020年开始一路狂奔，如今市场开始恢复常态。2020年一整年，共有248家SPAC公司在美股上市，募资总额达到840多亿美元，超过SPAC往年的IPO募资总和。2021...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497190.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d8b4ef5e124da060f276a5c2f3dd5af","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/497190.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2144154703","content_text":"经历了一季度的火爆，短短2个月，狂热的SPAC就凉了。2021年3月，SPAC IPO数量攀至110个的历史顶峰之后，4月瞬间悬崖式下跌至13个，5月为19个。最近一年单月SPAC IPO数量,制图：钛媒体\n热钱凶猛，让SPAC从2020年开始一路狂奔，如今市场开始恢复常态。2020年一整年，共有248家SPAC公司在美股上市，募资总额达到840多亿美元，超过SPAC往年的IPO募资总和。2021年一季度市场依旧火爆，SPAC IPO数已达308起，超越去年全年总和，募资规模达996亿美元，远超传统IPO。\nSPAC似有颠覆传统IPO市场的趋势，但物极必反，市场见顶的迹象初露端倪。这段时间，SPAC的狂热已经引起市场警惕，美国监管层正在有意进行监管规则的调整。长期来看，相关政策调整、流动性大幅收紧等都将是SPAC未来发展的重大不确定性因素。\n作为一个创新型的金融工具，对SPAC支持和反对的声音同样高涨。事实上，包括美国在内的世界各国都在“摸着石头过河”，总体上，都处于探索、完善的过程。回顾SPAC的前世今生，SPAC一直在通过不断优化制度、完善交易规则来适应资本市场的发展。\n断崖式下跌，单月SPACIPO数量从110到14\n最近两个月，SEC(美国证券交易委员会)发布的一则针对SPAC(特殊目的收购公司)的新会计指南，让SPAC市场瞬间恢复了冷静。4月12日，美国SEC宣布SPAC出售的认股权证(Warrants)应分类为负债而不是股权。\nWarrant是公众投资人将来可以按固定价格兑换一股普通股的权利。从会计的角度上看，此前，该类认股权证被归为“股本”，SPAC的投资者以特定的价格购买以此获得巨大收益。\n既是负债，发起人就需要定期核算认股权证的价值，这明显给追求简便的SPAC发起人增加了手续上的负担。这意味着，如果认股权证的价值波动较大，受影响的SPAC将必须要重述他们的财务业绩。也就是说，如果你已经做完了财报，发起了反向并购申请，开始走并购程序，那么你可能要按照新要求重新做一遍财报。\n此举对市场的影响犹如当头泼了一盆冷水。统计显示，4月新设立的SPAC数量发生骤减，从3月的历史峰值110个断崖式下跌至4月的13个，5月也仅有19个。很多公司暂停了SPAC上市申请，并开始就会计准则作出了重新调整。\n2020年以来，SPAC市场空前火爆，已经引发海外监管机构的警惕，此前SEC就已多次警示SPAC的投资者，4月初，SEC的一位官员表示，SPAC存在“一些重大但尚未发现的”问题。\n3月，SEC曾警告投资者，投资SPAC不应仅因为SPAC发起人中的明星而进行投资。有市场人士更是称SPAC是“这个急功近利的IPO时代的智慧结晶，是过去十年大放水时代里囤积出大量独角兽后的解决方案，更是这一轮的泡沫之王”。\n“以前上市圈钱还走一下IPO流程，不如直接给韭菜发帐号吧”、“资本画饼游戏实质还是割韭菜”、“空手套白狼”，一直以来普通投资人财富盲盒游戏，SPAC上市车企已成爆雷重灾区对SPAC这种新型的金融工具的各种质疑普遍存在。\n财富盲盒游戏，SPAC上市车企已成爆雷重灾区\n监管的当头一棒之外，残酷的市场也正成为SPAC的炼金石。近日，美国多家新能源车企被曝涉嫌造假，其中大部分车企都是通过SPAC模式在2020年实现上市，而后在半年左右的时间内相继爆雷。\n6月16日，据外媒消息，美股上市初创新能源车企LordstownMotors宣布，公司首席执行官史蒂夫伯恩斯和首席财务官胡里奥罗德里格斯已经辞职。2020年10月，Lordstown通过SPAC在纳斯达克证券交易所上市，股票代码为 \"RIDE\"。\n上市首日，Lordstown股价一度上涨近20%，但今年3月，做空机构HindenburgResearch指控Lordstown使用虚假订单为其Endurance电动皮卡筹集资金。该款皮卡仍需要数年才能投入生产，但Lordstown坚称将在9月按计划开始生产该车型。\n半年似乎成了SPAC上市公司的一个生死命门。2020年3月，被业内视为“卡车界特斯拉”的Nikola Corp.宣布通过与SPAC公司VectorIQ Acquisition Corp.反向并购上市。该交易使NikolaCorp.的公司市值达到33亿美元，并筹集约5.25亿美元的运营资金。\n上市仅6个月后，Nikola Corp.爆雷。2020年9月，Hindenburg Research发布报告称， Nikola Corp.公司在产品及技术方面涉嫌造假，不仅该公司并未掌握氢燃料电池的制造技术，其半挂式卡车、电池技术、氢气生产、Nikola One甚至其数十亿美元大订单等诸多方面也存在数十个虚假声明。报告发布后，Nikola执行董事长Trevor Milton宣布了辞职。\n公司高层集体辞职，也拯救不了一路下跌的股价。目前，Nikola Corp.股价在15美元/股上下徘徊，相比被做空前66美元/股的峰值股价已跌去近80%。Nikola Corp.股价走势\n一直以来，上市程序更精简，审查标准更宽松都是SPAC模式备受市场推崇的主要原因。但这也是一把双刃剑，由于上市流程简单、监管相对较松，SPAC上市模式相对缺乏投资银行的严格把关，因而埋藏了较大风险，比如上市标的虚假注资、业务主体不合上市规范等。\n潜在高额回报对创始人和公众投资者具有很强的吸引力，但SPAC财富盲盒游戏的密码只掌握在一小部分人手里。\n“SPAC的本质是创始人的资源变现，因此SPAC在股权结构的设置上天然赋予了创始人以较低成本获取较高比例股权的投资杠杆。”开源证券孙金钜研究团队表示。创始人仅需2.5万美元即可成立一个SPAC，折算下来，普通股每股价格不超过2美分。但“SPAC收购标的具有高度不确定性，公众投资者参与的是潜在收益率颇高的盲盒游戏，而游戏的胜率取决于SPAC创始人”。\n市场快见顶了?30年间SPAC一直在不断演变\n作为一个创新型的金融工具，事实上包括美国在内的世界各国都在“摸着石头过河”，总体上，都处于探索、完善的过程。\n过去的一年把SPAC彻底推上了全球资本市场的风口浪尖。单是2020年一年，共有248家SPAC上市，募资超830亿美元，占美国全年IPO的半壁江山。今年前三个月，SPAC的上市数量和募资金额已经超过去年全年。PE巨头、商界大佬及明星富豪等纷纷涉足SPAC，让这场SPAC快速“出圈”。为了抢夺优质公司，世界各大交易所也在积极推进和完善SPAC机制。新加坡交易所3月31日就引入SPAC机制向公众展开了咨询，预计最快在2021年年中正式公布SPAC框架。有媒体报道，香港交易所也正考虑制定适合香港市场的SPAC框架，目标是在年底迎来首批SPAC。据悉，香港监管机构考虑制定比美国更严格的规则。\n在全球市场的大力推崇之下，SPAC的势头一发不可收拾。热炒之下，市场似乎在透露出见顶的信号。掌管550亿美元资产的对冲基金Marshall Wace的共同创始人、在英国金融界无人不晓的大腕保罗·马歇尔(Paul Marshall)对SPAC泡沫发出警告。他说：“SPAC现象将以糟糕的结局收场，而且很多人会受害。”\n全球金融市场的两大投资泰斗更是毫不留情的批评SPAC。“用别人的钱来赌博。”在今年的股东大会上，巴菲特给SPAC这一上市机制下了如此定义，芒格则直接说这是一种“easy money\"(不义之财)，他不喜欢这种用来骗人投资割韭菜的东西。\n但是市场上也不乏支持的声音。对于美国监管层的一系列压制措施，一位名叫Steven Davidoff Solomon的市场观察人士在纽约时报上撰文表示，虽然一些SPAC过于激进或者过早上市，甚至公布错误虚假的商业计划，但是，不能否认的一点是，过去20年SPAC让小公司和新兴成长公司的IPO市场复苏起来。\n自从1993年，美国GKN证券将SPAC推向市场近30年来，SPAC的交易规则制度一直在不断调整完善。比如近期备受关注的另外一位对冲基金大佬Bill Ackman与环球音乐的交易。有媒体报道称Ackman旗下SPAC公司Pershing Square Tontine Holding(PSTH)正在和环球音乐(Universal Music)进行并购方面的磋商，这可能是SPAC狂潮下的最大一笔交易，合并后的新公司估值将达400亿美元。\n这次交易中，Ackman 衍生了一种名为SPARC(特殊目的收购权公司)的新型SPAC形式，解决了SPAC目前运作的一些缺陷，比如在交易完成之前不占用投资者资金。这被认为是SPAC的第三代演变。\n长期来看，美联储的加息政策也是悬在SPAC头上的一把利剑，一旦流动性收紧，二级市场潮水退出，裸泳者也将浮出水面。虽然美国联邦储备委员会在6月16日宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%之间不变，符合市场预期。但美联储多数官员预测，加息最早会在2023年到来。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":104518932,"gmtCreate":1620397559626,"gmtModify":1704343148776,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/104518932","repostId":"2133500490","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":170,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106109755,"gmtCreate":1620090988677,"gmtModify":1704338484694,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wahh","listText":"Wahh","text":"Wahh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/106109755","repostId":"1191810294","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108688243,"gmtCreate":1620018691582,"gmtModify":1704337464818,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108688243","repostId":"1180673336","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180673336","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620011304,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1180673336?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 11:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Valuation Remains a Concern for Churchill Capital IV Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180673336","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Growth guidance for CCIV for the next five years seems overly optimistic\nChurchill Capital IV (NYSE:","content":"<p>Growth guidance for CCIV for the next five years seems overly optimistic</p>\n<p><b>Churchill Capital IV</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:<b><u>CCIV</u></b>) stock has grabbed investor attention since the beginning of fiscal year 2021. On rumors of a potential business combination with&nbsp;<b>Lucid Motors</b>, CCIV stock surged to highs of nearly $65. In a typical example of sell on news, the stock plunged to around the $20 level after confirmation of the deal.</p>\n<p>CCIV stock has been relatively subdued in the last two months. It seems like a good consolidation phase. However, I am still concerned about the valuations.</p>\n<p>It was recently reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considering stricter rules for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). The focus of the SEC is on“wildly optimistic forward growth projections.”&nbsp;Optimistic guidance can help in justifying the SPAC business combination valuations. However, it poses a big risk for investors.</p>\n<p>So, let’s start with the company’s financial projections and the valuations.</p>\n<p><b>Overly Optimistic Projections Are a Concern</b></p>\n<p>For Lucid Motors, the transaction equity value is at $11.75 billion. Further, the pro-forma equity value is “approximately $24 billion&nbsp;at the PIPE offer price of $15.00 per share.” CCIV currently trades at $22, which implies a post-business-combination value of over $30 billion.</p>\n<p>Valuations seem unattractive for a company that’s likely to report first free cash flows (FCF) in FY2025. Importantly, the FCF projection seems to be based on overly optimistic growth projections — precisely the factor that the SEC is worried about.</p>\n<p>For the coming year, Lucid Motors expects revenue of $2.2 billion. By FY2026,revenue is expected to surge to $22.8 billion. This would imply a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 79.4%. To me, this seems unrealistic or too optimistic. And the company’s pro-forma valuation is based on these projections. This is a big reason to be cautiously optimistic on CCIV stock.</p>\n<p>Investors will point out that the electric vehicle (EV) industry is expected to grow at a healthy pace over the decade.<b>Deloitte</b>&nbsp;expects that by FY2030, there will be&nbsp;31.1 million electric vehicles on the road globally. In the current decade, EV sales will increase at a CAGR of 29%. Lucid Motors is talking about sales growth that is significantly higher than the projected industry growth rate. I would therefore take the projections with a grain of salt.</p>\n<p>I have pointed out one fact several times in the past, and I will do it again. By FY2022, there will be more than&nbsp;500 different EV models available globally. Competition will continue to intensify, and that can negatively impact long-term growth guidance.</p>\n<p>I would prefer to limit my exposure to CCIV stock. Further downside seems likely. However, there can be a news-based rally, which would provide a good trading opportunity.</p>\n<p><b>The Positive Triggers</b></p>\n<p>Recently,there were speculative reports&nbsp;that Lucid Motors could partner with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<b><u>AAPL</u></b>). This new has triggered some rally in the stock.</p>\n<p>Peter Rawlinson, the company’s CEO, confirmed that Lucid has been approached by a few car companies this year over licensing deals. However, the talks have not yielded anything tangible. Positive news on this front is a potential upside trigger.</p>\n<p>Another important point mentioned by Rawlinson is that the company is looking to collaborate with a mass-market carmaker. The idea is to get“millions of $25,000 cars into production fast.”&nbsp;It seems clear that the company is not just focused on the luxury car market. As the portfolio of models expand in the coming years, revenue growth will be robust. I would still doubt the projections.</p>\n<p>Lucid Air is slated for&nbsp;delivery in the second half of the year. The sales response is likely to have an impact on the stock trend in the next few quarters. Further, the company’s SUV is planned for launch in FY2023. The pipeline is exciting and the company’s long-term outlook looks promising. However, a good company might not always be a good investment.</p>\n<p><b>Concluding Views on CCIV Stock</b></p>\n<p>CCIV stock might seem attractive from a trading perspective after some consolidation around the $20 level. Any potential licensing deal could also trigger upside.</p>\n<p>However, the company’s growth guidance is optimistic and valuations look stretched. I would consider a long-term exposure once the business combination is completed and the stock is possibly available at lower levels.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Valuation Remains a Concern for Churchill Capital IV Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValuation Remains a Concern for Churchill Capital IV Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 11:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/04/valuation-remains-a-concern-for-churchill-capital-iv-stock/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Growth guidance for CCIV for the next five years seems overly optimistic\nChurchill Capital IV (NYSE:CCIV) stock has grabbed investor attention since the beginning of fiscal year 2021. On rumors of a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/04/valuation-remains-a-concern-for-churchill-capital-iv-stock/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/04/valuation-remains-a-concern-for-churchill-capital-iv-stock/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180673336","content_text":"Growth guidance for CCIV for the next five years seems overly optimistic\nChurchill Capital IV (NYSE:CCIV) stock has grabbed investor attention since the beginning of fiscal year 2021. On rumors of a potential business combination with Lucid Motors, CCIV stock surged to highs of nearly $65. In a typical example of sell on news, the stock plunged to around the $20 level after confirmation of the deal.\nCCIV stock has been relatively subdued in the last two months. It seems like a good consolidation phase. However, I am still concerned about the valuations.\nIt was recently reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is considering stricter rules for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs). The focus of the SEC is on“wildly optimistic forward growth projections.” Optimistic guidance can help in justifying the SPAC business combination valuations. However, it poses a big risk for investors.\nSo, let’s start with the company’s financial projections and the valuations.\nOverly Optimistic Projections Are a Concern\nFor Lucid Motors, the transaction equity value is at $11.75 billion. Further, the pro-forma equity value is “approximately $24 billion at the PIPE offer price of $15.00 per share.” CCIV currently trades at $22, which implies a post-business-combination value of over $30 billion.\nValuations seem unattractive for a company that’s likely to report first free cash flows (FCF) in FY2025. Importantly, the FCF projection seems to be based on overly optimistic growth projections — precisely the factor that the SEC is worried about.\nFor the coming year, Lucid Motors expects revenue of $2.2 billion. By FY2026,revenue is expected to surge to $22.8 billion. This would imply a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 79.4%. To me, this seems unrealistic or too optimistic. And the company’s pro-forma valuation is based on these projections. This is a big reason to be cautiously optimistic on CCIV stock.\nInvestors will point out that the electric vehicle (EV) industry is expected to grow at a healthy pace over the decade.Deloitte expects that by FY2030, there will be 31.1 million electric vehicles on the road globally. In the current decade, EV sales will increase at a CAGR of 29%. Lucid Motors is talking about sales growth that is significantly higher than the projected industry growth rate. I would therefore take the projections with a grain of salt.\nI have pointed out one fact several times in the past, and I will do it again. By FY2022, there will be more than 500 different EV models available globally. Competition will continue to intensify, and that can negatively impact long-term growth guidance.\nI would prefer to limit my exposure to CCIV stock. Further downside seems likely. However, there can be a news-based rally, which would provide a good trading opportunity.\nThe Positive Triggers\nRecently,there were speculative reports that Lucid Motors could partner with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). This new has triggered some rally in the stock.\nPeter Rawlinson, the company’s CEO, confirmed that Lucid has been approached by a few car companies this year over licensing deals. However, the talks have not yielded anything tangible. Positive news on this front is a potential upside trigger.\nAnother important point mentioned by Rawlinson is that the company is looking to collaborate with a mass-market carmaker. The idea is to get“millions of $25,000 cars into production fast.” It seems clear that the company is not just focused on the luxury car market. As the portfolio of models expand in the coming years, revenue growth will be robust. I would still doubt the projections.\nLucid Air is slated for delivery in the second half of the year. The sales response is likely to have an impact on the stock trend in the next few quarters. Further, the company’s SUV is planned for launch in FY2023. The pipeline is exciting and the company’s long-term outlook looks promising. However, a good company might not always be a good investment.\nConcluding Views on CCIV Stock\nCCIV stock might seem attractive from a trading perspective after some consolidation around the $20 level. Any potential licensing deal could also trigger upside.\nHowever, the company’s growth guidance is optimistic and valuations look stretched. I would consider a long-term exposure once the business combination is completed and the stock is possibly available at lower levels.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":135,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":108681360,"gmtCreate":1620018581450,"gmtModify":1704337463364,"author":{"id":"3582700345515891","authorId":"3582700345515891","name":"bobho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2793dec827cc42d044e4a48ca80ee8b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582700345515891","authorIdStr":"3582700345515891"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/108681360","repostId":"1135819410","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135819410","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619999342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135819410?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-03 07:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135819410","media":"Barrons","summary":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their fi","content":"<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&amp;P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday:&nbsp;Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.</p><p>On Wednesday,&nbsp;Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.&nbsp;Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a866fbe5118566e68842053d76e2b9\" tg-width=\"1382\" tg-height=\"750\"></p><p>On the economic calendar this week, the&nbsp;main event will jobs Friday.&nbsp;The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.</p><p>Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its&nbsp;Services equivalent on Wednesday.</p><p>Enterprise Products Partners&nbsp;and Estée Lauder release earnings.</p><p>Merck and&nbsp;Public Storage&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><b>The Census Bureau</b>&nbsp;reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.</p><p><b>The Institute for Supply</b>&nbsp;Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.</p><p><b>Tuesday 5/4</b></p><p>Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.</p><p>Eli Lilly&nbsp;holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.</p><p>Union Pacific&nbsp;holds its 2021 virtual investor day.</p><p><b>Wednesday 5/5</b></p><p>Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.</p><p><b>ADP releases</b>&nbsp;its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.</p><p><b>ISM releases</b>&nbsp;its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.</p><p><b>Thursday 5/6</b></p><p>Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and&nbsp;Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.</p><p><b>Friday 5/7</b></p><p><b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.</p><p>Cigna and&nbsp;<b>Liberty Media</b>&nbsp;report earnings.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Uber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUber, Pfizer, PayPal, T-Mobile, ViacomCBS, General Motors, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-03 07:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车",".DJI":"道琼斯","PFE":"辉瑞",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PYPL":"PayPal",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBER":"优步","TMUS":"T-Mobile US Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/uber-pfizer-paypal-t-mobile-viacomcbs-general-motors-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51619982000?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135819410","content_text":"It’s another packed week of earnings reports, with 130 S&P 500 companies on deck to release their first-quarter results. Estée Lauder is among Monday’s highlights, before things pick up on Tuesday: Activision Blizzard, CVS Health, DuPont, Pfizer, and T-Mobile US all report.On Wednesday, Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings, General Motors, PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings. Anheuser-Busch InBev, Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, and ViacomCBS go on Thursday. And finally, Cigna closes the week on Friday.On the economic calendar this week, the main event will jobs Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecast to report a gain of 975,000 nonfarm payrolls in April, and an unemployment rate of 5.8%—down from 6% a month earlier.Other data out this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April on Monday and its Services equivalent on Wednesday.Enterprise Products Partners and Estée Lauder release earnings.Merck and Public Storage hold virtual investor days.The Census Bureau reports construction-spending data for March. Consensus estimate is for a 0.6% month-over-month increase in construction spending to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.53 trillion.The Institute for Supply Management releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for April. Economists forecast a 65 reading, roughly even with the March figure. The March reading was the highest for the index since December 1983.Tuesday 5/4Activision Blizzard,ConocoPhillips, Cummins, CVS Health,Dominion Energy,DuPont, Eaton, Pfizer,Sysco,and T-Mobile US report quarterly results.Eli Lilly holds a conference call to discuss its sustainability initiatives.Union Pacific holds its 2021 virtual investor day.Wednesday 5/5Barrick Gold, Booking Holdings,BorgWarner,Emerson Electric,General Motors,Hilton Worldwide Holdings,Novo Nordisk,PayPal Holdings, and Uber Technologies release earnings.ADP releases its National Employment Report for April. Expectations are for a gain of 762,500 jobs in private-sector employment after a 517,000 increase in March.ISM releases its Services PMI for April. The consensus call is for a 64.6 reading, a tick higher than the March data. The March reading was an all-time high for the index.Thursday 5/6Anheuser-Busch InBev,Becton Dickinson,Expedia Group,Fidelity National Information Services,Kellogg, Linde,MetLife,Moderna, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Square, ViacomCBS, and Zoetishold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on May 1. Initial jobless claims have averaged 611,750 a week in April and are at their lowest level since March of last year.The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports labor costs and productivity for the first quarter. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2% productivity growth, compared with a 4.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Unit labor costs are seen falling 0.4% after rising 6% previously.Friday 5/7The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the jobs report for April. Economists forecast a gain of 975,000 in nonfarm payroll employment. The unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 5.8% from 6%.Cigna and Liberty Media report earnings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}