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2022-10-11

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3 Stocks to Avoid This Week

2022-10-25

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Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows

2022-10-25

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Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks

2022-10-11

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2022-10-05

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3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4

2022-10-28

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3 Extremely Safe Stocks That Can Double Your Money by 2028

2022-10-25

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Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks

2022-10-11

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Tesla Is A Bargain With Optimus And Recent Events

2022-09-25

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2022-10-26

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2022-10-26

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2022-10-25

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2022-10-11

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Is NIO Stock a Buy Now?

2022-10-05

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Bank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy

2022-10-03

Nicw

Get Paid To Buy Amazon 10% Lower

2021-05-21

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Delta Air names GE exec Janki as CFO

2022-11-08

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All You Need Are These 4 ETFs for a Well-Rounded Retirement Portfolio

2022-07-22

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Why Goldman Sachs Could Be the Best Bank Stock to Buy Now

2022-10-11

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Amazon: Still A Mixed Picture, I'll Wait For $90

2022-09-26

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23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"All You Need Are These 4 ETFs for a Well-Rounded Retirement Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281612231","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's simpler than you may imagine.","content":"<div>\n<p>Diversification is one of the key pillars of investing. It's another case of not wanting to put all your eggs in one basket. To achieve true diversification, you should be invested in companies from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/all-you-need-are-these-4-etfs-for-a-well-rounded-r/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All You Need Are These 4 ETFs for a Well-Rounded Retirement Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll You Need Are These 4 ETFs for a Well-Rounded Retirement Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-07 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/all-you-need-are-these-4-etfs-for-a-well-rounded-r/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Diversification is one of the key pillars of investing. It's another case of not wanting to put all your eggs in one basket. To achieve true diversification, you should be invested in companies from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/all-you-need-are-these-4-etfs-for-a-well-rounded-r/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","VO":"Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","VTWO":"Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/all-you-need-are-these-4-etfs-for-a-well-rounded-r/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281612231","content_text":"Diversification is one of the key pillars of investing. It's another case of not wanting to put all your eggs in one basket. To achieve true diversification, you should be invested in companies from different industries, sizes, and locations. Doing so by investing in individual companies can be time consuming and nerve wracking, but you don't have to go that route.With these four exchange-traded funds (ETFs), you can have a well-rounded retirement portfolio with just a few investments.The one stapleIf there were one \"must-have\" investment everyone needs in a stock portfolio, it would be an S&P 500 index fund. The S&P 500 tracks the 500 largest public U.S. companies and is the most followed index in the stock market. In fact, its performance is often used interchangeably with the overall stock market's performance.Since the S&P 500 only contains large-cap stocks (those with a market cap over $10 billion), it generally provides more stability than funds that contain small companies. You may not see the hypergrowth that you can with smaller-cap stocks, but you can take comfort in knowing it's well equipped to weather bad economic storms.An S&P 500 fund like the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund ETF can be a great choice because of its low cost (0.03% expense ratio) and diversification. It's weighted by market cap, so the larger a company's market cap, the higher percentage of the fund it makes up. This may make it more top-heavy than other ETFs, but it still manages to cover all bases sector-wise.Don't forget the little playersSmall-cap stocks have a market cap between $250 million and $2 billion. Because of their relatively small size, smaller-cap stocks tend to have more room for growth than larger-cap stocks. With this growth potential, however, comes more proneness to volatility because these companies typically don't have as many financial resources at their disposal.Small-cap stocks, by nature, are riskier than larger-cap stocks, but you can offset some of this risk by investing in a small-cap index fund like the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 tracks the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 index, and it's largely considered the go-to benchmark for small-cap stocks -- similar to the S&P 500 for large-cap stocks.A Russell 2000 index fund such as the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF is low cost (0.10% expense ratio) and has a mix of value and growth stocks. You don't want small-cap stocks to be the bulk of your portfolio, but you should want to be invested in some.A good balanceWith market caps between $2 billion and $10 billion, mid-cap stocks can often be the best of both worlds: large enough to have a good amount of financial resources, yet small enough to still have room for lots of growth. You may not get the huge upside you would with small-cap stocks, but you also don't get the risk. And you may not get the stability that comes with large-cap stocks, but there's generally more upside.The Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF is low cost (0.04% expense ratio) and contains 360 stocks covering all 11 major sectors. Its top 10 holdings only make up 7.23% of the fund, so it's well diversified and not too top heavy like some ETFs can be.Look outside the U.S.To have a truly diversified stock portfolio, you shouldn't only invest in American companies. By doing so, you're limiting yourself and missing out on some great companies across the globe. International markets are typically divided into two categories: developed and emerging.Developed markets are seen as having advanced economies, established industries, and solid infrastructure. Emerging markets may not have the advanced economics or infrastructure of developed markets, but they're seen as progressing that way, giving them more upside.Instead of spending time researching different regions and the companies within them, you can lean on an international ETF like the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF. This ETF contains 7,991 companies in the following regions:Europe: 38%Pacific: 26.9%North America: 7.8%Emerging Markets: 26.8%Middle East: 0.5%With the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF, you get exposure to companies in developed and emerging markets, as well as some household names like Samsung and Toyota. A good rule of thumb is to have around 20% of your stock portfolio in international stocks. You'll likely be glad you did.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VTWO":0.9,"VXUS":0.9,"VO":0.9,"VOO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986380550,"gmtCreate":1666886504371,"gmtModify":1676537824977,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986380550","repostId":"2278722957","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278722957","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666862660,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2278722957?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-27 17:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Extremely Safe Stocks That Can Double Your Money by 2028","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278722957","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These highly profitable and time-tested stocks can deliver triple-digit total returns for patient investors over the next six years.","content":"<div>\n<p>It's been quite some time since investors have contended with such a volatile year on Wall Street. According to data provided by Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, there have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/26/3-extremely-safe-stocks-double-your-money-by-2028/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Extremely Safe Stocks That Can Double Your Money by 2028</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Extremely Safe Stocks That Can Double Your Money by 2028\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-27 17:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/26/3-extremely-safe-stocks-double-your-money-by-2028/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's been quite some time since investors have contended with such a volatile year on Wall Street. According to data provided by Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, there have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/26/3-extremely-safe-stocks-double-your-money-by-2028/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"At&T","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","V":"Visa","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/26/3-extremely-safe-stocks-double-your-money-by-2028/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278722957","content_text":"It's been quite some time since investors have contended with such a volatile year on Wall Street. According to data provided by Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, there have been 53 trading sessions where the S&P 500 has lost at least 1% of its value in 2022, through this past weekend. That's the highest annual total since the Great Recession in 2009, and we still have more than two months left in the year.If this isn't enough proof that it's been a trying year, all three major U.S. stock indexes have fallen into a bear market.Image source: Getty Images.But just because equities are volatile, it doesn't mean investors have to head to the sideline. On the contrary, bear markets have historically been an excellent time to put your money to work.What's more, investors have options for putting their cash to work. Those folks who don't have a stomach for heightened volatility or risk can buy safe stocks to weather the short-term storm and steadily grow their wealth over time. What follows are three extremely safe stocks with long histories of profitability, and they can double your money, including dividends paid, by 2028.AT&TThe first exceptionally safe stock that has the potential to double your money, including dividends paid, by 2028 is telecom giant AT&T. As of this past weekend, it was yielding 6.49%. Over the next six years, this would equate to a 39% return from dividends alone.In terms of volatility, AT&T has a beta of 0.65. This means it's about 65% as volatile as the benchmark S&P 500. For instance, if the S&P 500 fell 1%, we would expect the stock to decline by just 0.65%. This lack of volatility is a reflection of wireless services and smartphones evolving into basic necessities over the past two decades. No matter how poorly the U.S. economy or stock markets perform, churn rates for AT&T's wireless services remain relatively low.Although AT&T's faster-growth days are now firmly in the rearview mirror, it does have two catalysts that can move the needle in the years to come. Without question, its biggest catalyst is the 5G revolution. It's been roughly a decade since wireless download speeds were significantly improved. While it will cost a pretty penny for AT&T to upgrade its infrastructure, the expectation is for consumers and businesses to respond by using more data, which happens to be where the company generates its beefiest margins.To add to this point, AT&T's third-quarter results featured 5.6% revenue growth in wireless service over the prior-year period. That's the fastest rate of wireless growth for the company in over a decade, which provides tangible evidence that its investments in 5G infrastructure are paying off.The other notable driver for AT&T is the spinoff of WarnerMedia in April, which subsequently merged with Discovery to create Warner Bros. Discovery. When the deal closed, AT&T received $40.4 billion in cash, as well as the retention of select debt by Warner Bros. Discovery. The point being that AT&T's debt-burdened balance sheet gained meaningful flexibility following this spinoff, which means its market-topping dividend should continue being paid out.VisaWhereas AT&T's dividend should play a key role in helping investors possibly double their money by 2028, payment processor Visa's dividend yield of 0.79% is merely icing on the cake. Share price appreciation should do virtually all of the heavy lifting over the next six years.One of the primary reasons Visa's volatility clocks in below that of the S&P 500 is its predictable cyclical nature. Cyclical stocks tend to ebb and flow with the U.S. economy. Even though downturns are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they don't last very long. So Visa's outperformance reflects that the U.S. and global economies spend a considerably longer amount of time expanding than contracting.Something else working in Visa's favor is its domestic and international opportunities. Within the U.S., it held the lion's share of credit card network purchase volume (54%), as of 2020. In fact, it was the only one of the four major credit card networks in the U.S. to demonstrably expand its market share following the Great Recession.As for its international prowess, Visa can benefit from the fact that most global transactions are still being conducted with cash. It will likely take decades to penetrate some of the most underbanked regions of the globe, which is a fancy way of saying that Visa has decades left to sustain a double-digit growth runway.Also, as I've previously pointed out, Visa's conservative operating approach is a positive. Its purposeful avoidance of lending means it isn't exposed to potential loan losses when recessions arise. By strictly focusing on payment processing, Visa is ensuring that it bounces back from recessions faster than its peers, as well as maintaining a profit margin above 50%.Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.Berkshire HathawayThe third extremely safe stock that can double your money by 2028 is none other than conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway. Although Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it continues the theme of the companies on this list offering lower volatility than the S&P 500.While Berkshire Hathaway might not be a household name, its billionaire leader certainly is. Warren Buffett has been CEO of Berkshire since 1965, and in that time has overseen the creation of more than $620 billion in shareholder value. Perhaps more important, he's delivered an average annual return of 20.1% for his shareholders. Even though past performance is no indication of future results, a 57-year track record is sufficient evidence that Buffett has a knack for outperforming the broader market.One of the most overlooked reasons for Berkshire Hathaway's success is its investment portfolio, which is packed with dividend stocks. Companies that pay a regular dividend are usually profitable, and history shows they tend to vastly outperform stocks that don't pay a dividend. Over the coming 12 months, Buffett's company is on pace to collect more than $6 billion in dividend income.Warren Buffett happens to be a big fan of leaning on cyclical business as well. Rather than trying to foolishly time when a recession will occur, the Oracle of Omaha has packed his company's portfolio with businesses that'll thrive from the natural expansion of the U.S. and global economies over time, such as bank stocks.Berkshire Hathaway's capital-return program is another reason for investors to be excited. Though Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, there isn't a stock Buffett and his right-hand man Charlie Munger love buying more than shares of their own company. Over a four-year stretch, Buffett and Munger have repurchased $62.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway Class A and Class B stock.For businesses with steady or growing net income, stock repurchases can have a positive impact on earnings per share. This can make an already reasonably priced stock like Berkshire Hathaway appear all the more attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9,"T":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988524108,"gmtCreate":1666793010404,"gmtModify":1676537807212,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988524108","repostId":"1129024455","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988525438,"gmtCreate":1666792921924,"gmtModify":1676537807197,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988525438","repostId":"2278672309","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988024908,"gmtCreate":1666627573404,"gmtModify":1676537780755,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments","listText":"Comments","text":"Comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988024908","repostId":"1112709963","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988025435,"gmtCreate":1666627529228,"gmtModify":1676537780740,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Plungrd","listText":"Plungrd","text":"Plungrd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988025435","repostId":"1169376524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169376524","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1666618818,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169376524?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese ADRs Plunged in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169376524","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot chinese ADRs plunged in morning trading. Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Netease, Baidu, NIO, XPeng,","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Hot chinese ADRs plunged in morning trading. Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Netease, Baidu, NIO, XPeng, Li Auto and Bilibili fell between 8% and 23%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f50abb539742a6a1d319f7a7b642677\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"716\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese ADRs Plunged in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-24 21:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Hot chinese ADRs plunged in morning trading. Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Netease, Baidu, NIO, XPeng, Li Auto and Bilibili fell between 8% and 23%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f50abb539742a6a1d319f7a7b642677\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"716\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169376524","content_text":"Hot chinese ADRs plunged in morning trading. Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, Netease, Baidu, NIO, XPeng, Li Auto and Bilibili fell between 8% and 23%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988025897,"gmtCreate":1666627507919,"gmtModify":1676537780732,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988025897","repostId":"2277265831","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988025121,"gmtCreate":1666627497263,"gmtModify":1676537780727,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree thc","listText":"Agree thc","text":"Agree thc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988025121","repostId":"1121547995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121547995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666619640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121547995?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121547995","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch tha","content":"<div>\n<p>Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-24 21:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121547995","content_text":"Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have happened in 2022 after big tech companies’ earnings. In February, a big drop in Amazon.com’s shares shaved $191 billion from its market value,the most everfor a company in a single day.Options traders appear to be betting the volatility will continue over the this week, when several big tech companies report their earnings results. (Their forecasts don’t indicate the direction of the move, only the size.)Options traders are wagering on around a 5.4% move in Apple shares after its earnings this week, above the average move of around 3.3% after the past eight earnings releases, according to Cboe Global Markets data.They’re betting on a roughly 7% move for Alphabet after its earnings and through Friday. The stock has swung around 5.1% on average after the past eight releases.Expectations for Meta’s post-earnings move are even higher, with a roughly 13% post-earnings move forecast through Friday. The stock has swung around 9.2% on average after the past eight releases, according to Cboe.The big swings for tech stocks have continued last week. Snap sharesplunged 28% Fridayafter it disclosed a further slowdown in sales growth and signaled the digital-ad market could remain sluggish. Something similar happened in July, when it posted its weakest-ever quarterly sales growth as a public company.Analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500’s communications sector, home to several of the big tech companies known as FAANG stocks, to decline by 13% this quarter, among the worst within the broader index. And all five FAANG stocks have posted double-digit declines this year after big simultaneous gains over the past three.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".SPX":1,"AAPL":1,"AMZN":1,".IXIC":1,"MSFT":1,"GOOGL":1,"META":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988025303,"gmtCreate":1666627433603,"gmtModify":1676537780725,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kkz","listText":"Kkz","text":"Kkz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988025303","repostId":"1121547995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121547995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666619640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121547995?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121547995","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch tha","content":"<div>\n<p>Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-24 21:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121547995","content_text":"Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have happened in 2022 after big tech companies’ earnings. In February, a big drop in Amazon.com’s shares shaved $191 billion from its market value,the most everfor a company in a single day.Options traders appear to be betting the volatility will continue over the this week, when several big tech companies report their earnings results. (Their forecasts don’t indicate the direction of the move, only the size.)Options traders are wagering on around a 5.4% move in Apple shares after its earnings this week, above the average move of around 3.3% after the past eight earnings releases, according to Cboe Global Markets data.They’re betting on a roughly 7% move for Alphabet after its earnings and through Friday. The stock has swung around 5.1% on average after the past eight releases.Expectations for Meta’s post-earnings move are even higher, with a roughly 13% post-earnings move forecast through Friday. The stock has swung around 9.2% on average after the past eight releases, according to Cboe.The big swings for tech stocks have continued last week. Snap sharesplunged 28% Fridayafter it disclosed a further slowdown in sales growth and signaled the digital-ad market could remain sluggish. Something similar happened in July, when it posted its weakest-ever quarterly sales growth as a public company.Analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500’s communications sector, home to several of the big tech companies known as FAANG stocks, to decline by 13% this quarter, among the worst within the broader index. And all five FAANG stocks have posted double-digit declines this year after big simultaneous gains over the past three.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".SPX":1,"AAPL":1,"AMZN":1,".IXIC":1,"MSFT":1,"GOOGL":1,"META":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988025949,"gmtCreate":1666627413381,"gmtModify":1676537780724,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok thx","listText":"Ok thx","text":"Ok thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988025949","repostId":"2277240299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277240299","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666685056,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2277240299?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277240299","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Recession-proof stocks must offer something that makes investors want to buy them even when the economy is tanking.","content":"<div>\n<p>We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-25 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XLU":"公共事业指数ETF-SPDR","WMT":"沃尔玛","JNJ":"强生","DG":"美国达乐公司","VRTX":"福泰制药","XLP":"消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品","XLB":"材料ETF","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277240299","content_text":"We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is probably on the way.For example, Johns Hopkins economics professor Steve Hanke stated a month ago that he believes there's at least an 80% chance of a recession. Non-profit research group The Conference Board recently pegged the probability at 96%. The latest Bloomberg economic model projects a 100% chance of a recession by October 2023.These forecasts don't guarantee that a recession is coming. But it's possible that the current bear market will continue for a while longer. That doesn't mean that every stock will be a big loser, though. Which stocks are most likely to thrive in a recession? Here's what history shows.Some bad newsThe SPDR Select Sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are good proxies for gauging how different sectors perform during recessions. One primary downside of using them is that most of these ETFs have only been around since the late 1990s. However, the U.S. has experienced three recessions during that period, so the SPDR Select Sector ETFs should be able to help in determining which stocks historically thrive in a recession.I've got some bad news, though. None of the SPDR Select Sector ETFs performed well in all three recessions that occurred over the past 25 years.The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund held up well during the recession of 2001. However, it still slid a little. The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF performed similarly during the first recession of this century. (The shaded area in the charts below indicates the period when the U.S. economy was in recession.)XLP data by YChartsHowever, both of these ETFs plunged during the Great Recession that began in late 2007 and went through mid-2009. So did every other sector ETF -- including (perhaps surprisingly) the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund.XLP data by YChartsAll of the sector ETFs also tanked during the brief coronavirus-fueled recession of 2020. However, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund didn't fall nearly as much as the others did.Looking for exceptionsThe cold, hard truth is that no category of stocks thrives in all recessions. But it's clear from examining the past that consumer staples stocks tend to perform better than most. Your best bet, though, is to look for exceptions. I'm referring to stocks that have factors working to their advantage so much that investors want to buy them even when the overall economy stinks.Johnson & Johnson stood out as this kind of stock during the recession of 2001. The healthcare giant continued to deliver revenue and earnings growth throughout the period. It completed the $10.5 billion acquisition of ALZA Corporation. The blue-chip stock was also viewed as a safe haven for investors worried about the dot-com bubble bursting.JNJ data by YChartsWalmart performed exceptionally well during the Great Recession, especially considering how most stocks plunged. Investors realized that the serious economic downturn would mean that consumers would have to tighten their purse strings. That worked to the advantage of the big discount retailer.WMT data by YChartsModerna's share price skyrocketed during the quick recession of 2020. That's not surprising. The company was one of the early leaders in developing coronavirus vaccines. Moderna was a natural choice for investors to flock to during the uncertain times at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.MRNA data by YChartsLikely outliers in the next recessionWhich stocks might be outliers in the next recession, assuming it isn't too far off? I think we can learn from history.Walmart could again defy gravity if the U.S. economy enters into a recession. My view is that another discount retailer, Dollar General, should do so as well.Dollar General is outperforming Walmart so far this year. The company continues to build new stores. It's also expanding its frozen and refrigerated goods offerings. Dollar General should benefit as consumers increasingly try to stretch their dollars.Just as Johnson & Johnson and Moderna performed well during two previous recessions, I suspect another drug stock will do so during the next recession -- Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Vertex's revenue and earnings will almost certainly grow robustly even amid an economic downturn.The big biotech also has a pipeline with multiple potential blockbusters likely on the way. Vertex expects to file for regulatory approvals for one of them (gene-editing therapy exa-cel) before year-end. With fears of a recession increasing, I think that Vertex is arguably the best stock to buy right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XLU":0.9,"DG":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"XLP":0.9,"VRTX":0.9,"XLB":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"JNJ":0.71}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917685516,"gmtCreate":1665500117635,"gmtModify":1676537617353,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917685516","repostId":"1189371869","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189371869","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665492847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189371869?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 20:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Still A Mixed Picture, I'll Wait For $90","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189371869","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon’s large price corrections, combined with the overall market turmoil, have triggered ma","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Amazon’s large price corrections, combined with the overall market turmoil, have triggered many Q&amp;A among our readers.</li><li>What I see is still a mixed picture with unfavorable odds.</li><li>Its profitability remains under pressure with the many near-term headwinds such as shipping congestion and inflation.</li><li>On the other hand, its valuation is too high. I see a $90 stock price possible in the near future given its historical volatility and its current elevated P/E.</li><li>Even among the FAAMG stocks, I see far better alternatives than Amazon currently.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become a frequent Q&amp;A topic among our readers and members of our marketplace service. In this article, I want to consolidate my responses and thoughts more cohesively. And I will do so by focusing on a macroscopic level, an approach motivated by two reasons.</p><p>First, AMZN is such a diversified company with so many complicated parts (retailer, AWS, hardware, et al). Each part merits an in-depth article and plenty of articles (including some of my own articles) have been written on the parts. So it makes sense to write an article at a macroscopic level with the hope of gaining a panoramic view at the cost of losing some of the details. This article will also complement the other pieces that other SA authors wrote about its segments.</p><p>Second, taking a macroscopic approach also helps to elucidate the core strategy and foundational concepts we use in our research and marketplace. So that you might be able to extend the methodology to other stocks of interest to yourself beyond AMZN. In particular, we will use the Fama French method in this article to analyze AMZN.</p><p>Under this context, the main conclusions of this article are twofold:</p><ul><li>Its profitability is less competitive than other peers. And I see inflation and supply chain pressures keep challenging its operating environment in the second half of 2022. In particular, the cost of fuel should lead operating expenses to increase during the remainder of the year. At the same time, the picture for overseas container costs remains mixed.</li><li>While at the same time, its valuation is still quite expensive, both in absolute terms and relative terms. Due to its current negative cash flow and negligible accounting EPS, valuation metrics in terms of bottom lines are not meaningful for AMZN. Its GAAP FW P/E is quoted at about 2531x. Even looking 2 years out, at its current price, its FY2 P/E of 50.75x is still too high when compared to the FAAMG group – which also has far better profitability metrics than AMZN.</li></ul><p>All told, I see a $90 stock price possible in the near future for AMZN given its historical volatility and its current elevated P/E. And that level, it would be much more reasonably valued and would be worthy of another close look.</p><p><b>Shipping situation remains mixed</b></p><p>AMZN faces a multitude of headwinds, ranging from high fuel cost, inflation, foreign exchange rates, et al. And all have been detailed in other SA articles. Here I will focus on one aspect not often mentioned: the mixed outlook of shipping costs.</p><p>On the positive side, the overseas shipping cost has gone down dramatically since its peak reached around September and October 2021 as you can see from the following chart (based on Drewry’s data). The shipping container costs peaked above $10k during that time. It has been continuously declining since then. The Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased by 8% alone last week to the current $3,688. Compare to its peak level about 1 year ago, the current price is almost 1/3 of the peak price. To further corroborate the picture, the second chart below shows the trade routes from Shanghai to other key port cities in the world (also based on Drewry’s data). As seen, the costs have also been declining, almost continuously, since 2021 September too. Take the trade routes between Shanghai and New York as an example. The costs have declined by almost ½ from around $15k a year ago to the current level of about $7k.</p><p>However, on the negative side, the impacts of China’s COVID lockdown may still take time to clear up, and new lockdowns are very possible given the recent resurgence in key Chinese cities. At the same time, gasoline prices remain near a historical high. According to YCharts data shown below, the national average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline is $3.91. It is about 23% below the peak of $5.1 reached recently, but still among the highest level since 1995 as seen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/256180d98a9dd64ca2d83ff439a9c5e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Drewry’s data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b9d87580ac4907f0c4fbe68d328fc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Drewry’s data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07ece3b4ce194cad87f1dbdef5474f88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p>AMZN profitability examined by Fama French</p><p>The factors above will keep their pressure on AMZN’s margins and profitability, which is not that impressive to start with as shown by a Fama French analysis below. The background of the Fama French has been provided in our earlier article. A brief recap is provided here for ease of reference (especially for readers who do not have access to our past articles).</p><blockquote><i>The method is named after Eugene Fama and Ken French. In 2013, Eugene Fama shared the Nobel Prize in economics with Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller for their work on asset prices. The Fama French method is considered a significant improvement over the CAPM method because it adjusted for outperformance tendency.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>The raw data used in this article were pulled from theDartmouth Tuck Business School database. We then analyzed the raw data using a simplified version of the Fama French method.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>The following two charts show two of AMZN’s factors (operation profitability and valuation) compared to the general market.Past results have shown that these two factors have truly held up over all time periods.</i></blockquote><p>AMZN’s scores on these two factors are shown below. The first chart shows the OP factor of AMZN compared against all the other stocks in the market by percentile. As you can see, AMZN is not highly profitable by the OP metric (not a horrible one either). Its OP has oscillated the top 25% and the market median most of the time in recent years. Its current OP is 17.9%, actually slightly below the market median OP of 19.5%.</p><p>Another metric that we always like to check is the return on capital employed (“ROCE”), just in case for some businesses, the capital employed deviates from their equity substantially. And as seen, in AMZN’s case, there is a noticeable difference. Its ROCE (the thicker cyan line) has been consistently better than its OP, suggesting that its equity overrepresents its capital actually employed. But currently, its ROCE hovers around 16.4%, also below the market median as seen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7442f7c4e4bfe121f4d75c2d27c3ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author</p><p>AMZN valuation examined by Fama French</p><p>Now move on to the valuation factor. As aforementioned, due to its current negative cash flow and negligible accounting EPS, valuation metrics in terms of bottom lines are not meaningful for AMZN (FY1 GAAPP/E is 2531x). Even its FY2P/E of 50.75x is still too high when compared to the FAAMG group: more than 4x higher than META, 3x higher than GOOG, and 2x higher than AAPL and NFLX.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a89e3a63b9eef0ea0761ce0b6cc2210\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking alpha data</p><p>The next chart shows AMZN’sP/E factor is also much higher than the overall market. Again, here you need to ignore the large gyrations because of the large fluctuations in its accounting EPS over the years. However, currently, its 50+ FY2P/E would make it among the most expensively valued stocks on the market.</p><p>To provide some reference points, the top 5% percentileP/E in the market is currently 117x, and the top 10% percentile is 69.9x. So regardless of whichP/E you want to pick for AMZN, its current valuation is near the top 5% or the 10% percentile, a stark contrast to its below-average profitability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9be743a0bfec85a1d5c881e8a1c8631\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author</p><p><b>Risks and final thoughts</b></p><p>To recap, despite large price corrections, I still see a mixed picture for AMZN under its current conditions. AMZN faces a multitude of headwinds, including shipping cost, inflation, foreign exchange rates, et al. I anticipate these headwinds to keep their pressure on its profitability, which is not super-competitive to start with. Its profitability, either measured by OP or ROCE, has oscillated between the top 25% and the market median most of the time. And they are currently slightly below the market median.</p><p>As such, under current conditions, we see better alternatives even within the FAAMG group. For example, the following two charts show the OP andP/E scores for Apple (AAPL). You can see the picture is completely the opposite when compared to AMZN. AAPL’s profitability, either measured by OP or ROCE, is far superior to the overall market as shown in the first chart. Yet, its valuation is only slightly above the market median.</p><p>All told, I see a $90 stock price possible for AMZN in the near future given its historical volatility and its current elevatedP/E. A $90 stock price would translate into a 40xP/E based on its FY2 EPS forecast. Still not cheap by any standard. But it is more reasonable and close to the top 25% percentile of the overall market. And a $90 level, it would be worthy of another close look given its growth potential (driven by its eCommerce, AWS, and healthcare initiatives for example).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8aa0f3e9e00bc90c9d1b923b0781f4e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e77e81f4516106d39fd3f27a099af2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Still A Mixed Picture, I'll Wait For $90</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Still A Mixed Picture, I'll Wait For $90\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 20:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545827-amazon-still-a-mixed-picture-ill-wait-for-90><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmazon’s large price corrections, combined with the overall market turmoil, have triggered many Q&A among our readers.What I see is still a mixed picture with unfavorable odds.Its profitability...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545827-amazon-still-a-mixed-picture-ill-wait-for-90\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545827-amazon-still-a-mixed-picture-ill-wait-for-90","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189371869","content_text":"SummaryAmazon’s large price corrections, combined with the overall market turmoil, have triggered many Q&A among our readers.What I see is still a mixed picture with unfavorable odds.Its profitability remains under pressure with the many near-term headwinds such as shipping congestion and inflation.On the other hand, its valuation is too high. I see a $90 stock price possible in the near future given its historical volatility and its current elevated P/E.Even among the FAAMG stocks, I see far better alternatives than Amazon currently.ThesisAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become a frequent Q&A topic among our readers and members of our marketplace service. In this article, I want to consolidate my responses and thoughts more cohesively. And I will do so by focusing on a macroscopic level, an approach motivated by two reasons.First, AMZN is such a diversified company with so many complicated parts (retailer, AWS, hardware, et al). Each part merits an in-depth article and plenty of articles (including some of my own articles) have been written on the parts. So it makes sense to write an article at a macroscopic level with the hope of gaining a panoramic view at the cost of losing some of the details. This article will also complement the other pieces that other SA authors wrote about its segments.Second, taking a macroscopic approach also helps to elucidate the core strategy and foundational concepts we use in our research and marketplace. So that you might be able to extend the methodology to other stocks of interest to yourself beyond AMZN. In particular, we will use the Fama French method in this article to analyze AMZN.Under this context, the main conclusions of this article are twofold:Its profitability is less competitive than other peers. And I see inflation and supply chain pressures keep challenging its operating environment in the second half of 2022. In particular, the cost of fuel should lead operating expenses to increase during the remainder of the year. At the same time, the picture for overseas container costs remains mixed.While at the same time, its valuation is still quite expensive, both in absolute terms and relative terms. Due to its current negative cash flow and negligible accounting EPS, valuation metrics in terms of bottom lines are not meaningful for AMZN. Its GAAP FW P/E is quoted at about 2531x. Even looking 2 years out, at its current price, its FY2 P/E of 50.75x is still too high when compared to the FAAMG group – which also has far better profitability metrics than AMZN.All told, I see a $90 stock price possible in the near future for AMZN given its historical volatility and its current elevated P/E. And that level, it would be much more reasonably valued and would be worthy of another close look.Shipping situation remains mixedAMZN faces a multitude of headwinds, ranging from high fuel cost, inflation, foreign exchange rates, et al. And all have been detailed in other SA articles. Here I will focus on one aspect not often mentioned: the mixed outlook of shipping costs.On the positive side, the overseas shipping cost has gone down dramatically since its peak reached around September and October 2021 as you can see from the following chart (based on Drewry’s data). The shipping container costs peaked above $10k during that time. It has been continuously declining since then. The Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased by 8% alone last week to the current $3,688. Compare to its peak level about 1 year ago, the current price is almost 1/3 of the peak price. To further corroborate the picture, the second chart below shows the trade routes from Shanghai to other key port cities in the world (also based on Drewry’s data). As seen, the costs have also been declining, almost continuously, since 2021 September too. Take the trade routes between Shanghai and New York as an example. The costs have declined by almost ½ from around $15k a year ago to the current level of about $7k.However, on the negative side, the impacts of China’s COVID lockdown may still take time to clear up, and new lockdowns are very possible given the recent resurgence in key Chinese cities. At the same time, gasoline prices remain near a historical high. According to YCharts data shown below, the national average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline is $3.91. It is about 23% below the peak of $5.1 reached recently, but still among the highest level since 1995 as seen.Source: Drewry’s dataSource: Drewry’s dataSource: Seeking Alpha dataAMZN profitability examined by Fama FrenchThe factors above will keep their pressure on AMZN’s margins and profitability, which is not that impressive to start with as shown by a Fama French analysis below. The background of the Fama French has been provided in our earlier article. A brief recap is provided here for ease of reference (especially for readers who do not have access to our past articles).The method is named after Eugene Fama and Ken French. In 2013, Eugene Fama shared the Nobel Prize in economics with Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller for their work on asset prices. The Fama French method is considered a significant improvement over the CAPM method because it adjusted for outperformance tendency.The raw data used in this article were pulled from theDartmouth Tuck Business School database. We then analyzed the raw data using a simplified version of the Fama French method.The following two charts show two of AMZN’s factors (operation profitability and valuation) compared to the general market.Past results have shown that these two factors have truly held up over all time periods.AMZN’s scores on these two factors are shown below. The first chart shows the OP factor of AMZN compared against all the other stocks in the market by percentile. As you can see, AMZN is not highly profitable by the OP metric (not a horrible one either). Its OP has oscillated the top 25% and the market median most of the time in recent years. Its current OP is 17.9%, actually slightly below the market median OP of 19.5%.Another metric that we always like to check is the return on capital employed (“ROCE”), just in case for some businesses, the capital employed deviates from their equity substantially. And as seen, in AMZN’s case, there is a noticeable difference. Its ROCE (the thicker cyan line) has been consistently better than its OP, suggesting that its equity overrepresents its capital actually employed. But currently, its ROCE hovers around 16.4%, also below the market median as seen.Source: AuthorAMZN valuation examined by Fama FrenchNow move on to the valuation factor. As aforementioned, due to its current negative cash flow and negligible accounting EPS, valuation metrics in terms of bottom lines are not meaningful for AMZN (FY1 GAAPP/E is 2531x). Even its FY2P/E of 50.75x is still too high when compared to the FAAMG group: more than 4x higher than META, 3x higher than GOOG, and 2x higher than AAPL and NFLX.Source: Seeking alpha dataThe next chart shows AMZN’sP/E factor is also much higher than the overall market. Again, here you need to ignore the large gyrations because of the large fluctuations in its accounting EPS over the years. However, currently, its 50+ FY2P/E would make it among the most expensively valued stocks on the market.To provide some reference points, the top 5% percentileP/E in the market is currently 117x, and the top 10% percentile is 69.9x. So regardless of whichP/E you want to pick for AMZN, its current valuation is near the top 5% or the 10% percentile, a stark contrast to its below-average profitability.Source: AuthorRisks and final thoughtsTo recap, despite large price corrections, I still see a mixed picture for AMZN under its current conditions. AMZN faces a multitude of headwinds, including shipping cost, inflation, foreign exchange rates, et al. I anticipate these headwinds to keep their pressure on its profitability, which is not super-competitive to start with. Its profitability, either measured by OP or ROCE, has oscillated between the top 25% and the market median most of the time. And they are currently slightly below the market median.As such, under current conditions, we see better alternatives even within the FAAMG group. For example, the following two charts show the OP andP/E scores for Apple (AAPL). You can see the picture is completely the opposite when compared to AMZN. AAPL’s profitability, either measured by OP or ROCE, is far superior to the overall market as shown in the first chart. Yet, its valuation is only slightly above the market median.All told, I see a $90 stock price possible for AMZN in the near future given its historical volatility and its current elevatedP/E. A $90 stock price would translate into a 40xP/E based on its FY2 EPS forecast. Still not cheap by any standard. But it is more reasonable and close to the top 25% percentile of the overall market. And a $90 level, it would be worthy of another close look given its growth potential (driven by its eCommerce, AWS, and healthcare initiatives for example).Source: AuthorSource: Author","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917685368,"gmtCreate":1665500092654,"gmtModify":1676537617338,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917685368","repostId":"1163331801","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163331801","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1665495165,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1163331801?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 21:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Fall As Investors Look Ahead to Key Inflation Data, Earnings Reports","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163331801","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks fell Tuesday after the Nasdaq Composite closed at its lowest in two years during the reg","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks fell Tuesday after the Nasdaq Composite closed at its lowest in two years during the regular session as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the start of earnings season.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 66 points, or 0.23%, rebounding from a slump that took the index down about 200 points in premarket trading. The S&amp;P 500 declined 0.48% while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.52%.</p><p>Stocks closed lower Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1% following a drop in semiconductor stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 94 points, or 0.3%, while the S&amp;P 500 declined about 0.8%.</p><p>Bond prices also fell. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose about five basis points to 3.937% after nearing the key 4% level overnight. Bond yields are inverse to prices, and a basis point is one hundredth of one percent.</p><p>The moves came as investors weighed comments from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned that the U.S. would likely fall into a recession over the next “six to nine months,” and said the S&amp;P 500 could fall another 20% depending on whether the Federal Reserve engineers a soft or a hard landing for the economy.</p><p>Those remarks came at the start of a big week for third quarter bank earnings, and ahead of Wednesday’s producer price report, Thursday’s consumer price index report for September and Friday’s retail sales numbers, also for last month.</p><p>Investor reaction is focused solely on how the Federal Reserve will react to the economy as it works to dampen inflation.</p><p>“This is an awful stock market environment that is grappling with a weakening economy, uncertainty over earnings and how long the Fed’s tightening will last, and sentiment issues with an extremely risk averse investor psychology,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, in a Tuesday note.</p><p>“We believe the Fed will raise interest rates one or two more times until the Fed funds rate reaches 4% and then take a pause, at which point the Fed will assess the damage done,” he added.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Fall As Investors Look Ahead to Key Inflation Data, Earnings Reports</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Fall As Investors Look Ahead to Key Inflation Data, Earnings Reports\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-11 21:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks fell Tuesday after the Nasdaq Composite closed at its lowest in two years during the regular session as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the start of earnings season.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 66 points, or 0.23%, rebounding from a slump that took the index down about 200 points in premarket trading. The S&amp;P 500 declined 0.48% while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.52%.</p><p>Stocks closed lower Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1% following a drop in semiconductor stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 94 points, or 0.3%, while the S&amp;P 500 declined about 0.8%.</p><p>Bond prices also fell. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose about five basis points to 3.937% after nearing the key 4% level overnight. Bond yields are inverse to prices, and a basis point is one hundredth of one percent.</p><p>The moves came as investors weighed comments from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned that the U.S. would likely fall into a recession over the next “six to nine months,” and said the S&amp;P 500 could fall another 20% depending on whether the Federal Reserve engineers a soft or a hard landing for the economy.</p><p>Those remarks came at the start of a big week for third quarter bank earnings, and ahead of Wednesday’s producer price report, Thursday’s consumer price index report for September and Friday’s retail sales numbers, also for last month.</p><p>Investor reaction is focused solely on how the Federal Reserve will react to the economy as it works to dampen inflation.</p><p>“This is an awful stock market environment that is grappling with a weakening economy, uncertainty over earnings and how long the Fed’s tightening will last, and sentiment issues with an extremely risk averse investor psychology,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, in a Tuesday note.</p><p>“We believe the Fed will raise interest rates one or two more times until the Fed funds rate reaches 4% and then take a pause, at which point the Fed will assess the damage done,” he added.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163331801","content_text":"U.S. stocks fell Tuesday after the Nasdaq Composite closed at its lowest in two years during the regular session as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the start of earnings season.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 66 points, or 0.23%, rebounding from a slump that took the index down about 200 points in premarket trading. The S&P 500 declined 0.48% while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.52%.Stocks closed lower Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite falling 1% following a drop in semiconductor stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 94 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 declined about 0.8%.Bond prices also fell. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose about five basis points to 3.937% after nearing the key 4% level overnight. Bond yields are inverse to prices, and a basis point is one hundredth of one percent.The moves came as investors weighed comments from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned that the U.S. would likely fall into a recession over the next “six to nine months,” and said the S&P 500 could fall another 20% depending on whether the Federal Reserve engineers a soft or a hard landing for the economy.Those remarks came at the start of a big week for third quarter bank earnings, and ahead of Wednesday’s producer price report, Thursday’s consumer price index report for September and Friday’s retail sales numbers, also for last month.Investor reaction is focused solely on how the Federal Reserve will react to the economy as it works to dampen inflation.“This is an awful stock market environment that is grappling with a weakening economy, uncertainty over earnings and how long the Fed’s tightening will last, and sentiment issues with an extremely risk averse investor psychology,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, in a Tuesday note.“We believe the Fed will raise interest rates one or two more times until the Fed funds rate reaches 4% and then take a pause, at which point the Fed will assess the damage done,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917682555,"gmtCreate":1665500048577,"gmtModify":1676537617323,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917682555","repostId":"2274220575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274220575","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665499501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274220575?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 22:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is NIO Stock a Buy Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274220575","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese EV maker looks cheap relative to its industry peers.","content":"<div>\n<p>The Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO has taken investors on a wild ride since its IPO in Sept. 2018. It went public at $6.26 per share and surged to an all-time high of $62.84 last February, but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/11/is-nio-stock-a-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs NIO Stock a Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 22:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/11/is-nio-stock-a-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO has taken investors on a wild ride since its IPO in Sept. 2018. It went public at $6.26 per share and surged to an all-time high of $62.84 last February, but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/11/is-nio-stock-a-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/11/is-nio-stock-a-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274220575","content_text":"The Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO has taken investors on a wild ride since its IPO in Sept. 2018. It went public at $6.26 per share and surged to an all-time high of $62.84 last February, but subsequently stumbled back to about $14. Like many other EV makers, NIO initially attracted a stampede of bulls during the stimulus-induced rally in growth stocks, but quickly lost its luster amid rising interest rates and other macro headwinds.Yet NIO is already producing tens of thousands of vehicles each year, putting it far ahead of smaller EV makers that are struggling to ramp up their production. At three times this year's sales, NIO's stock also looks cheap relative to most of its industry peers. So could this be the right time for patient investors to pick up some shares of NIO?Reviewing NIO's core businessNIO launched its first electric vehicle, the high-end EP9 supercar, back in 2016. However, this vehicle was never mass produced, and none of its 16 production models were ever registered for use on normal roads. In late 2017, NIO properly entered the mainstream EV market with the launch of its full-size ES8 SUV.NIO subsequently launched two additional mid-size SUVs, the ES6 and EC6, in 2019 and 2020, respectively. In 2021, it rolled out two sedans, the ET5 and ET7, and started delivering both vehicles earlier this year. It also launched another \"mid-large\" SUV, the ES7, this June. The following table illustrates just how rapidly NIO ramped up its production since its IPO:Period9M 2022FY 2021FY 2020FY 2019FY 2018Deliveries82,43491,42943,72820,56511,348Data source: NIO.NIO's year-over-year growth in deliveries notably decelerated in the first nine months of 2022, but it mainly blames that slowdown on COVID-19 disruptions, extreme weather conditions, and supply chain challenges instead of softer demand for its vehicles. NIO's Chinese competitor Li Auto, which delivered 90,491 Li ONE SUVs in 2021, also experienced a similar slowdown, with 86,927 deliveries in the first nine months of 2022.However, both NIO and Li are still far ahead of their smaller American counterparts like Lucid, which expects to produce 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles this year, and Rivian, which is trying to ramp up its production to manufacture 25,000 vehicles this year.NIO also differs from its domestic and overseas counterparts because it uses battery-swapping stations, which allow drivers to quickly swap out their depleted batteries for fully charged ones, instead of charging stations. That approach makes NIO similar to the Taiwanese electric scooter maker Gogoro, which also builds networks of battery-swapping stations for riders. Just like Gogoro, NIO charges subscription fees to access those stations.Reviewing NIO's main challengesNIO is gradually expanding overseas into smaller European markets like Norway, but it still generates most of its revenue in China. That concentration exposes it to the unpredictable lockdowns related to China's zero-COVID policy and the weakening of the yuan against the U.S. dollar, which reduces the value of its overseas shares. As a Chinese company, NIO could also be hurt by tougher trade restrictions for semiconductors, as well as the ongoing threats to delist U.S.-listed Chinese stocks.Analysts expect NIO's sales to rise 61% in 2022 and increase another 82% in 2023, but those estimates seem a bit too bullish and don't seem to fully account for its decelerating shipments this year. Macroeconomic challenges could also curb the average consumer's demand for its pricey vehicles, which start at $70,000 to $80,000 (before subsidies).NIO is still deeply unprofitable, but analysts expect it to turn profitable in 2024. That might seem possible, since NIO's gross margin already rose from negative 5.2% in 2018 to positive 18.9% in 2021 as it scaled up its business. However, its gross margins also declined year-over-year in the first half of 2022 as the macro headwinds squeezed its vehicle margins while it ramped up its investments in its battery-swapping network.Therefore, analysts' expectations for NIO to turn profitable within two years -- which are pegged to its high sales estimates -- also seem too optimistic. On the bright side, NIO was still sitting on $8.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of June, compared to a net loss of $410 million in the first half of the year, so it won't run out of cash anytime soon. Its low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6 also gives it some room to raise fresh funds.Is it the right time to buy NIO?NIO looks cheap compared to Lucid and Rivian, which still trade at 31 and 17 times this year's sales, respectively. But it's still comparable to Li Auto, which also trades at about three times this year's sales. NIO and Li are both growing, but their valuations will remain depressed as long as so many macroeconomic and regulatory clouds are hanging over Chinese companies. Until some of those clouds dissipate, I wouldn't touch NIO, Li, or any other EV makers from China.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.6,"NIO.SI":0.6,"NIO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917682636,"gmtCreate":1665500024625,"gmtModify":1676537617315,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917682636","repostId":"2274656821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274656821","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665501541,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274656821?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274656821","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<div>\n<p>October got off to an encouraging start, but it didn't take long for the markets to start selling off. Stocks still generally closed out the week higher. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/10/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/10/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>October got off to an encouraging start, but it didn't take long for the markets to start selling off. Stocks still generally closed out the week higher. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/10/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GFI":"金田","APRN":"Blue Apron Holdings Inc.","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/10/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274656821","content_text":"October got off to an encouraging start, but it didn't take long for the markets to start selling off. Stocks still generally closed out the week higher. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last week that I thought were going to lose to the market -- Apple, Conagra Brands, and Gold Fields -- rose 1.3%%, 0.7%, and 5.9%, respectively, averaging out to a 2.6% uptick.The S&P 500 experienced a 1.5% move lower, better than two of the three stocks but still short of the overall return. I was wrong. I have, though, been right in 32 of the past 51 weeks, or 63% of the time.Now let's look at the week ahead. I see Walgreens Boots Alliance, Blue Apron, and, again, Gold Fields as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.1. Walgreens Boots AllianceIt isn't easy being a drugstore operator these days. New platforms are upending and undercutting the way we fulfill prescriptions. E-commerce and third-party delivery apps are eating away at the need to drive to a drugstore for stocked essentials. It's against this grim backdrop that Walgreens Boots Alliance will step up to deliver financial results this week for the quarter that ended in August.On the surface it may seem insane to bet against Walgreens Boots Alliance at this point. The stock hit a new 10-year low on Friday, and it's now trading for just five times trailing earnings. The stock is yielding a record high of 6.2%. This could make it a magnet for income-chasing value investors, but you may want to wait until it announces its quarterly results this week. Analysts see revenue and earnings per share declining 6% and 34%, respectively.Analysts see revenue recovering next year, but Wall Street's eyeing just 1% growth. The bottom line is expected to keep shrinking, and it's easy to see why. This is a highly leveraged company. Having more than $38 billion in debt is a bad look heading into a time where refinancing rates are skyrocketing. Walgreens Boots Alliance may seem like a smart idea at five times trailing earnings, but would you say the same if I told you that it's fetching seven times forward earnings? The fundamentals are going to the wrong way.2. Blue ApronOne of last week's biggest losers was Blue Apron. The pioneer of home-delivered meal kits shed more than half of its value, down 56% after announcing a stock offering. You may not think announcing a modest $15 million at-the-market equity offering would result in the shedding of more than $100 million in market cap, but think about it. If the news sank the stock and Blue Apron went on with the offering anyway, it's a sign of how desperate it has become for liquidity.There's a lot going wrong here. Growth is a missing ingredient, as revenue has failed to top a 2% year-over-year gain in each of the last four years. Losses are mounting, and Blue Apron has posted a larger deficit than analysts were expecting in at least the last four quarters. With too many competitors promoting aggressively to win their way into your kitchen, this is not going to be moneymaker for investors in the near term.3. Gold FieldsI went with Gold Fields last week because I felt gold miners would slip if the market bounced back in October. I got the second part right. Stocks did bounce back. Unfortunately for this particular call, gold prices moved even higher. It also only helped Gold Fields that it would schedule a shareholder meeting to vote on a pending deal for a Canadian gold miner that was initially valued at $6.7 billion.Gold isn't an inverse market fund. It may be a flight to safety when there's turmoil, but the shiny previous metal has still lost value this year. I still think investors will rotate out of gold if this early October rally continues into the new trading week.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Walgreens, Blue Apron, and Gold Fields this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WBA":0.9,"GFI":0.9,"APRN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917872501,"gmtCreate":1665490043503,"gmtModify":1676537615201,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917872501","repostId":"1126298657","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126298657","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665501481,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126298657?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is A Bargain With Optimus And Recent Events","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126298657","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla has significantly improved its Optimus robot in a very short time, and could generate huge cash flow in these cases.Many positive catalysts have materialized around Tesla recently, despit","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla has significantly improved its Optimus robot in a very short time, and could generate huge cash flow in these cases.</li><li>Many positive catalysts have materialized around Tesla recently, despite the fact that the stock suffered one of its heaviest losses in recent years.</li><li>We judge that the automotive component of Tesla&#39;s business should be able to outperform broad benchmarks, allowing the stock to achieve double-digit annual returns.</li><li>Tesla is expanding across most major emerging industries, presumably including energy, transportation, computing, manufacturing, robotics and more.</li></ul><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) introduced its highly anticipated Optimus/ Bumble C robot this week atAI Day. There were also a slew of news announcements from Tesla and others that had very positive implications for the future. Nevertheless, Tesla shares this week seem headed for their longest losing streak since March 2021.</p><p>We think that Tesla&#39;s new humanoid robot, in addition to developments in their real world AI, computing and other Tesla products currently represent a very attractive buying opportunity for long-term holders of the stock, and we expect it to outperform broad benchmarks even in times of macroeconomic distress.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/194dff43d71f26606d51256c830a4945\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Bumble C</p><p>As Tesla&#39;s Humanoid Robot is still under development, they were able to show their prototype &#34;Bumble C,&#34; which is to become a low-cost and mass-producible Optimus robot.</p><p>The initial release and demonstration of the product was followed by a variety ofreactions from expertsin the robotics industry and the investment community. Interestingly, Tesla received high praise from experts from the robotics industry, while there were many skeptics from the investment community.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6d0c0a5d8694dfa2f56d1cf75ee8831\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>We want to highlight the key differences between what makes Tesla&#39;s bot so different from competitors such as Boston Dynamics, Honda and others:</p><ul><li>Optimus is intended for mass production (i.e., thousands or millions of units).</li><li>Project progress was made in just 6 to 8 months, compared with decades at competitors.</li><li>The robot is expected to be affordable, costing only US$20K to manufacture, or &#34;significantly less expensive than an EV.&#34;</li><li>Tesla has a formidable AI advantage in the real world thanks to data collection efforts such as their FSD beta.</li><li>It is built for efficiency, and optimized for defined tasks rather than optimized for aesthetics.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48961fc406e0289960175b055105f015\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>Critics who compared the Optimus prototype to Boston Dynamics, for example, should note that Boston Dynamics has been aroundfor 30 years, and their humanoid robot Atlas has been in development for nearly 10 years, rather than 6 to 8 months. Boston Dynamics has also shown no intention of mass-producing their Atlas Robot, or at what price. However, their smaller robot dog, Spot, is currently available at a price ofabout US$75,000. At a price of US$20,000, not only small businesses but also households should be able to afford an Optimus robot.</p><p>The same goes for other concepts, such asHonda&#39;s Asimorobot, a humanoid robot that has been in development since the 1980s and was officially created in the year 2000. Although initially intended for mass development, Honda stopped producing Asimo robots to &#34;focus on more practical applications.&#34; None were actually sold, but Hondagave a pseudo quote of as much as $2.5 million per robot.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s robot may not have the same dexterity and human-like character because it is not primarily intended to perform tasks such as parkour or dancing. We also believe that Tesla, thanks to its real-world data collection, for example with FSD Beta, and its fleet ofmore than 3 million cars, has a head start on developing a functional AI-driven humanoid robot.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5780d19805b143394d1cccb72a98ac6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>It is also important to note that this event was not aimed at investors, as thesole purpose was to recruit the best possible talent for Tesla and their Optimus project. We believe that recruiting the most talented engineers and employees at Tesla is a huge advantage for innovation within the company and to stay ahead of the competition.</p><p>For example, a recent survey of 49,197 American studentsby Universum, which specializes in employer branding, found that Tesla and SpaceX were named as their ideal employers. The combination of the ability to attract the best team of engineers, expertise in scaling and mass production, combined with a strong lead in data collection and years of expertise in real-world AI development, leads us to consider that Tesla is poised to become the leading company in humanoid robotics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fbe300b4c6989fade2f3522cfee49eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>The Cost Savings</p><p>One of the main reasons Tesla is likely to make robots for a price tag of only US$20K is probably their ability to scale, vertically integrate and simplify concepts by leveraging their advances in automotive technology. Remember, Tesla specializes in &#34;building the machine that builds the machine,&#34; like their Gigafactories.</p><p>For example,in their Q2 report, they showed that the number of robots in their gigafactory body shop could be reduced by 70% compared to their first Model 3 body shop through large castings and parts consolidation. They are still on a quest for simplification with each new product and factory. Another example could be Tesla, which reportedlyremoved the ultrasonic sensorson Model 3 and Model Y vehicles because they are more confident in their AI and full self-driving capabilities.</p><p>Vertical integration in innovation is always an important concept because the unit price of certain components can drop significantly as a result ofWright&#39;s Law. For example, according to Wright&#39;s law, the cost of batteries drops 28% for every cumulative doubling of the number of units produced. That concept could be accelerated, as some of the robots&#39; components have similarities to what is used in EVs, and could be vertically integrated. The Optimus robots could also be used in Tesla&#39;s own production chain, producing more cars and robots.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9b7b69eca0bcc3d547dcee35162406\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>There is still some debate whether Tesla will sell the robots at a fixed price, lease them, or possibly require an annual subscription for the robot and its software. If the Optimus could be produced for US$20K, it could represent a significant cost savings for employers that completely exceeds the output and productivity of an average worker. Tesla&#39;s FSD Beta software alone currently costs US$15K, and sells very well.</p><p>Compared to the average US work week, which is about 38.7 hours, Optimus can stay connected 24/7 when working in a factory, bringing the total work week to 168 hours. That&#39;s a 4x increase in output. Let&#39;s say the robot can replace 4 full-time factory or warehouse workers performing boring and repetitive tasks, employers could save up to$29,250 per employeeper year.</p><p>That makes $117,000 per robot per year, since its output is more than 4 times that of an employee. If the average lifetime of a robot is 8 years, this means a value of $936,000 per robot over its lifetime. This does not include the cost of employing workers, elimination of personnel costs, worker training and productivity loss due to illness or injury. Each year, approximately 2.3 million people worldwide suffer a work-related injury.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e5dc767ae2f36f0f5ba809cf7b9637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>With a value of US$936,000 and a COGS of US$20,000 in mass production, each unit produced could generate US$916,000 in value. Suppose Tesla takes a 30% gross margin on the value of this robot, just as they dowith their cars, that leaves another US$274,800 in gross profit per unit produced, or US$274.8BN per million units produced.</p><p>The big difference in why Tesla could succeed in building a truly intelligent robot capable of performing realistic tasks lies in itsdata advantageand its unique ability to collect data in real time. Even as we speak, thousands of cars worldwide on FSD Beta are collecting data to train Tesla&#39;s AI. It has been collecting such data since 2014, has a dataset of 4.8 million clips and has trained 75,778 models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee780b98aa96a00300a696e280cf786\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>Tesla also showed that it is serious about AI, by giving us a big update on their Dojo supercomputer they are building, and what plans they have for it. Tesla currently still uses a lot of Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs, but plans to increase its own capabilities for training its neural net.</p><p>It should also significantly reduce costs, and help Tesla maintain a data advantage. As Tesla&#39;s fleet grows exponentially with increased production and therollout of FSD betato more users, the amount of data Tesla and FSD beta collect in real-world applications also scales exponentially. Currently, Tesla has already driven over 35 million miles with its FSD beta cumulatively. Currently, they appear to be adding 10 million miles per quarter and expanding exponentially.</p><p>Tesla currently claims that it can replace 6 GPU boxes with just 1Dojo tile, which they also claim costs less than 1 GPU box itself, further significantly improving their cost efficiency and form factor in building out their AI systems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f969773a012764dc54e04de9cedeaa0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>The Automotive Side</p><p>Tesla has ventured into many areas, including batteries, solar, AI, self-driving, computers, robotics and more. While all of these ventures are promising and show great potential, we believe Tesla&#39;s auto side itself can generate better returns than broad benchmarks such as the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p>In the transition to EVs, we believe that with Wright&#39;s Law in place,EVs will be on parin price with ICE vehicles by next year 2024, and it will be a no-brainer to buy an EV. Especially as US oil prices remain high.OPEC+, for example, announced this week a production cut of 2 million barrels per day. Not only will it become cheaper to buy an EV, including tax breaks, but it will also likely cost less to maintain and refuel, increasing the adoption rate exponentially.</p><p>In 2021, the EV adoption rate was 6.6%, and we believe that by 2030 about 60% of car sales will be EVs, as EVs continue to fall below the same price as ICE vehicles as explained in our previous model. Under our assumptions, Tesla&#39;s market share in EVs will remain stagnant at 20% as competition enters the market. If both criteria are met, Tesla is expected to sell 10.8 million vehicles per year by 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98543a4dc086e1db225ea538cc5c71f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla IR</p><p>This is also in line withElon Musk&#39;s expectationto have a fleet of more than 100 million cars in 10 years. Tesla has set a goal of producing more than double our estimate of 20 million units by 2030. However, we believe Tesla&#39;s average selling price will drop from US$50,450 in 2021 to US$42,000 in 2030 as a result of a new smaller sedan, with a target price closer to US$25,000-US$35,0000, in addition to a price cut to keep up with competitive pressures.</p><p>For a more in-depth explanation of our parameters for our valuation, please read our previous valuation modelpublished here on Seeking Alpha. We expect Tesla to generate approximately US$172.37BN in gross automotive revenue by 2030, with a gross margin of up to 38%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa7a1659836da3ee6ab572806224152\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p>OpEx is also likely to improve significantly over time, as Elon Musk himself alluded that &#34;OpEx. is embarrassingly high.&#34; Tesla&#39;s adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.6% in 2021, which we predict could reach 32% over the next 8 years. These improvements include cost reductions, historical margin improvement, expansion of software-based revenues and low fixed costs.</p><p>This would lead us to a final adjusted EBITDA of US$145.15 billion for the automotive section. If 5% annualshare dilutionis also taken into account, that would lead to adjusted EBITDA of US$31.42 per share by 2030. At a reasonable multiple of 16x, we expect Tesla&#39;s auto section to propel Tesla to $502.67 per share, or a CAGR of 10.7% that exceeds the historical average return of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7f2dced45f19caff10798400d7a8bf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla IR</p><p>We used the mean of theS&amp;P 500 multiplier, but Tesla could be trading higher at that point because it could also be valued as a software company trading atmuch higher multiples. Also note that the S&amp;P 500 is more likely to trade below its historical average return because economic growth is currently stalling.</p><p>Developments, Macroeconomics &amp; Risks</p><p>While many critics expect Tesla to have a demand-side problem, we believe the opposite is true. Tesla historically and still has a huge order backlog, and has recently had toraise pricesagain to ensure that the customer experience does not suffer from immense wait times.</p><p>According toTeslike, which tracks Tesla data, the company still has a backlog of 317,000 vehicles despite price increases. This continuous backlog of orders could also serve as a great buffer if we are heading for anearnings recessionby the end of this year, as we and many economists expect.</p><p>In contrast, looking at economic indicators, we see an environment of rising yields, which are expected to rise to 4.5-4.75% by next year, making it more expensive for Tesla to expand operations, raise additional capital to build new Gigafactories and ramp up production as previously planned in a 0 interest rate environment, they face macroeconomic headwinds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0104878c08973b5c44e0881be20c144d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>On the other hand, OPEC+ announced this week its intention to cut production by2 million barrels per day as the group seeks to keep crude above $90 per barrel. This would also boost demand and accelerate the use of EVs as they reach the same price as ICE vehicles. Another big risk for Tesla is the production, or scaling up of its batteries,specifically 4680s in the future.</p><p>Tesla also announced this week itsdeliveries for Q22022: 365,923 vehicles were produced and 343,830 delivered, which was less than the deliveries expected by Wall Street. While some investors thought it was due to a &#34;demand-side problem,&#34; Tesla mentioned that it was actually due to the fact that it is &#34;increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity, and at a reasonable cost during peak logistics weeks.&#34; We think Tesla made the right decision, saving capital for investors rather than placing hasty orders toward the end of the quarter to meet Wall Street&#39;s expectations.</p><p>Tesla also recently received aninvestment graderating for its bonds for the first time, meaning they are rated BBB by S&amp;P global and are no longer &#34;junk bonds.&#34; Even more good news came this week, as Elon Musk also hinted that Tesla will start production onDecember 1stand deliver its first Semitruck to customer Pepsi. This means that Tesla could be sending us a positive signal about its 4680s battery production and is ready to disrupt a new segment of the auto industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7faae7db7817551fd0be2c8bcc40fe0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla IR</p><p>The Bottom Line</p><p>Optimus could give Tesla a huge boost in cash flow, if it manages to solve and integrate true AI into its Optimus robot and can mass produce it at very low cost. According to our assumptions, Tesla looks like an attractive investment, as the company is expected to outperform historical average benchmarks such as the S&amp;P 500 with its automotive operations alone.</p><p>Other complementary activities that generate cash flow, such as solar, batteries, Optimus, AI, computer applications and others, have great potential and could push the company&#39;s valuation beyond the $502.67 per share target, giving investors additional alpha if the projects succeed and are widely implemented. We believe Tesla&#39;s expertise in &#34;building the machines that make the machines&#34; puts them in pole position to dominate the innovative sectors in which Tesla operates.</p><p>In essence, we fully support Elon Musk&#39;s view at AI Day that Tesla is essentially a succession of tech start-ups trying to solve some of the most difficult problems. All the recent positive news, amid one of Tesla&#39;s biggest one-week declines, makes Tesla stock all the more attractive to buy at this time, in our opinion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is A Bargain With Optimus And Recent Events</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is A Bargain With Optimus And Recent Events\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545812-tesla-stock-bargain-with-optimus-and-recent-events><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla has significantly improved its Optimus robot in a very short time, and could generate huge cash flow in these cases.Many positive catalysts have materialized around Tesla recently, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545812-tesla-stock-bargain-with-optimus-and-recent-events\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545812-tesla-stock-bargain-with-optimus-and-recent-events","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126298657","content_text":"SummaryTesla has significantly improved its Optimus robot in a very short time, and could generate huge cash flow in these cases.Many positive catalysts have materialized around Tesla recently, despite the fact that the stock suffered one of its heaviest losses in recent years.We judge that the automotive component of Tesla's business should be able to outperform broad benchmarks, allowing the stock to achieve double-digit annual returns.Tesla is expanding across most major emerging industries, presumably including energy, transportation, computing, manufacturing, robotics and more.Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) introduced its highly anticipated Optimus/ Bumble C robot this week atAI Day. There were also a slew of news announcements from Tesla and others that had very positive implications for the future. Nevertheless, Tesla shares this week seem headed for their longest losing streak since March 2021.We think that Tesla's new humanoid robot, in addition to developments in their real world AI, computing and other Tesla products currently represent a very attractive buying opportunity for long-term holders of the stock, and we expect it to outperform broad benchmarks even in times of macroeconomic distress.Bumble CAs Tesla's Humanoid Robot is still under development, they were able to show their prototype \"Bumble C,\" which is to become a low-cost and mass-producible Optimus robot.The initial release and demonstration of the product was followed by a variety ofreactions from expertsin the robotics industry and the investment community. Interestingly, Tesla received high praise from experts from the robotics industry, while there were many skeptics from the investment community.Tesla AI DayWe want to highlight the key differences between what makes Tesla's bot so different from competitors such as Boston Dynamics, Honda and others:Optimus is intended for mass production (i.e., thousands or millions of units).Project progress was made in just 6 to 8 months, compared with decades at competitors.The robot is expected to be affordable, costing only US$20K to manufacture, or \"significantly less expensive than an EV.\"Tesla has a formidable AI advantage in the real world thanks to data collection efforts such as their FSD beta.It is built for efficiency, and optimized for defined tasks rather than optimized for aesthetics.Tesla AI DayCritics who compared the Optimus prototype to Boston Dynamics, for example, should note that Boston Dynamics has been aroundfor 30 years, and their humanoid robot Atlas has been in development for nearly 10 years, rather than 6 to 8 months. Boston Dynamics has also shown no intention of mass-producing their Atlas Robot, or at what price. However, their smaller robot dog, Spot, is currently available at a price ofabout US$75,000. At a price of US$20,000, not only small businesses but also households should be able to afford an Optimus robot.The same goes for other concepts, such asHonda's Asimorobot, a humanoid robot that has been in development since the 1980s and was officially created in the year 2000. Although initially intended for mass development, Honda stopped producing Asimo robots to \"focus on more practical applications.\" None were actually sold, but Hondagave a pseudo quote of as much as $2.5 million per robot.Tesla's robot may not have the same dexterity and human-like character because it is not primarily intended to perform tasks such as parkour or dancing. We also believe that Tesla, thanks to its real-world data collection, for example with FSD Beta, and its fleet ofmore than 3 million cars, has a head start on developing a functional AI-driven humanoid robot.Tesla AI DayIt is also important to note that this event was not aimed at investors, as thesole purpose was to recruit the best possible talent for Tesla and their Optimus project. We believe that recruiting the most talented engineers and employees at Tesla is a huge advantage for innovation within the company and to stay ahead of the competition.For example, a recent survey of 49,197 American studentsby Universum, which specializes in employer branding, found that Tesla and SpaceX were named as their ideal employers. The combination of the ability to attract the best team of engineers, expertise in scaling and mass production, combined with a strong lead in data collection and years of expertise in real-world AI development, leads us to consider that Tesla is poised to become the leading company in humanoid robotics.Tesla AI DayThe Cost SavingsOne of the main reasons Tesla is likely to make robots for a price tag of only US$20K is probably their ability to scale, vertically integrate and simplify concepts by leveraging their advances in automotive technology. Remember, Tesla specializes in \"building the machine that builds the machine,\" like their Gigafactories.For example,in their Q2 report, they showed that the number of robots in their gigafactory body shop could be reduced by 70% compared to their first Model 3 body shop through large castings and parts consolidation. They are still on a quest for simplification with each new product and factory. Another example could be Tesla, which reportedlyremoved the ultrasonic sensorson Model 3 and Model Y vehicles because they are more confident in their AI and full self-driving capabilities.Vertical integration in innovation is always an important concept because the unit price of certain components can drop significantly as a result ofWright's Law. For example, according to Wright's law, the cost of batteries drops 28% for every cumulative doubling of the number of units produced. That concept could be accelerated, as some of the robots' components have similarities to what is used in EVs, and could be vertically integrated. The Optimus robots could also be used in Tesla's own production chain, producing more cars and robots.Tesla AI DayThere is still some debate whether Tesla will sell the robots at a fixed price, lease them, or possibly require an annual subscription for the robot and its software. If the Optimus could be produced for US$20K, it could represent a significant cost savings for employers that completely exceeds the output and productivity of an average worker. Tesla's FSD Beta software alone currently costs US$15K, and sells very well.Compared to the average US work week, which is about 38.7 hours, Optimus can stay connected 24/7 when working in a factory, bringing the total work week to 168 hours. That's a 4x increase in output. Let's say the robot can replace 4 full-time factory or warehouse workers performing boring and repetitive tasks, employers could save up to$29,250 per employeeper year.That makes $117,000 per robot per year, since its output is more than 4 times that of an employee. If the average lifetime of a robot is 8 years, this means a value of $936,000 per robot over its lifetime. This does not include the cost of employing workers, elimination of personnel costs, worker training and productivity loss due to illness or injury. Each year, approximately 2.3 million people worldwide suffer a work-related injury.Tesla AI DayWith a value of US$936,000 and a COGS of US$20,000 in mass production, each unit produced could generate US$916,000 in value. Suppose Tesla takes a 30% gross margin on the value of this robot, just as they dowith their cars, that leaves another US$274,800 in gross profit per unit produced, or US$274.8BN per million units produced.The big difference in why Tesla could succeed in building a truly intelligent robot capable of performing realistic tasks lies in itsdata advantageand its unique ability to collect data in real time. Even as we speak, thousands of cars worldwide on FSD Beta are collecting data to train Tesla's AI. It has been collecting such data since 2014, has a dataset of 4.8 million clips and has trained 75,778 models.Tesla AI DayTesla also showed that it is serious about AI, by giving us a big update on their Dojo supercomputer they are building, and what plans they have for it. Tesla currently still uses a lot of Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs, but plans to increase its own capabilities for training its neural net.It should also significantly reduce costs, and help Tesla maintain a data advantage. As Tesla's fleet grows exponentially with increased production and therollout of FSD betato more users, the amount of data Tesla and FSD beta collect in real-world applications also scales exponentially. Currently, Tesla has already driven over 35 million miles with its FSD beta cumulatively. Currently, they appear to be adding 10 million miles per quarter and expanding exponentially.Tesla currently claims that it can replace 6 GPU boxes with just 1Dojo tile, which they also claim costs less than 1 GPU box itself, further significantly improving their cost efficiency and form factor in building out their AI systems.Tesla AI DayThe Automotive SideTesla has ventured into many areas, including batteries, solar, AI, self-driving, computers, robotics and more. While all of these ventures are promising and show great potential, we believe Tesla's auto side itself can generate better returns than broad benchmarks such as the S&P 500 (SPY).In the transition to EVs, we believe that with Wright's Law in place,EVs will be on parin price with ICE vehicles by next year 2024, and it will be a no-brainer to buy an EV. Especially as US oil prices remain high.OPEC+, for example, announced this week a production cut of 2 million barrels per day. Not only will it become cheaper to buy an EV, including tax breaks, but it will also likely cost less to maintain and refuel, increasing the adoption rate exponentially.In 2021, the EV adoption rate was 6.6%, and we believe that by 2030 about 60% of car sales will be EVs, as EVs continue to fall below the same price as ICE vehicles as explained in our previous model. Under our assumptions, Tesla's market share in EVs will remain stagnant at 20% as competition enters the market. If both criteria are met, Tesla is expected to sell 10.8 million vehicles per year by 2030.Tesla IRThis is also in line withElon Musk's expectationto have a fleet of more than 100 million cars in 10 years. Tesla has set a goal of producing more than double our estimate of 20 million units by 2030. However, we believe Tesla's average selling price will drop from US$50,450 in 2021 to US$42,000 in 2030 as a result of a new smaller sedan, with a target price closer to US$25,000-US$35,0000, in addition to a price cut to keep up with competitive pressures.For a more in-depth explanation of our parameters for our valuation, please read our previous valuation modelpublished here on Seeking Alpha. We expect Tesla to generate approximately US$172.37BN in gross automotive revenue by 2030, with a gross margin of up to 38%.Author's CalculationsOpEx is also likely to improve significantly over time, as Elon Musk himself alluded that \"OpEx. is embarrassingly high.\" Tesla's adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.6% in 2021, which we predict could reach 32% over the next 8 years. These improvements include cost reductions, historical margin improvement, expansion of software-based revenues and low fixed costs.This would lead us to a final adjusted EBITDA of US$145.15 billion for the automotive section. If 5% annualshare dilutionis also taken into account, that would lead to adjusted EBITDA of US$31.42 per share by 2030. At a reasonable multiple of 16x, we expect Tesla's auto section to propel Tesla to $502.67 per share, or a CAGR of 10.7% that exceeds the historical average return of the S&P 500.Tesla IRWe used the mean of theS&P 500 multiplier, but Tesla could be trading higher at that point because it could also be valued as a software company trading atmuch higher multiples. Also note that the S&P 500 is more likely to trade below its historical average return because economic growth is currently stalling.Developments, Macroeconomics & RisksWhile many critics expect Tesla to have a demand-side problem, we believe the opposite is true. Tesla historically and still has a huge order backlog, and has recently had toraise pricesagain to ensure that the customer experience does not suffer from immense wait times.According toTeslike, which tracks Tesla data, the company still has a backlog of 317,000 vehicles despite price increases. This continuous backlog of orders could also serve as a great buffer if we are heading for anearnings recessionby the end of this year, as we and many economists expect.In contrast, looking at economic indicators, we see an environment of rising yields, which are expected to rise to 4.5-4.75% by next year, making it more expensive for Tesla to expand operations, raise additional capital to build new Gigafactories and ramp up production as previously planned in a 0 interest rate environment, they face macroeconomic headwinds.Data by YChartsOn the other hand, OPEC+ announced this week its intention to cut production by2 million barrels per day as the group seeks to keep crude above $90 per barrel. This would also boost demand and accelerate the use of EVs as they reach the same price as ICE vehicles. Another big risk for Tesla is the production, or scaling up of its batteries,specifically 4680s in the future.Tesla also announced this week itsdeliveries for Q22022: 365,923 vehicles were produced and 343,830 delivered, which was less than the deliveries expected by Wall Street. While some investors thought it was due to a \"demand-side problem,\" Tesla mentioned that it was actually due to the fact that it is \"increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity, and at a reasonable cost during peak logistics weeks.\" We think Tesla made the right decision, saving capital for investors rather than placing hasty orders toward the end of the quarter to meet Wall Street's expectations.Tesla also recently received aninvestment graderating for its bonds for the first time, meaning they are rated BBB by S&P global and are no longer \"junk bonds.\" Even more good news came this week, as Elon Musk also hinted that Tesla will start production onDecember 1stand deliver its first Semitruck to customer Pepsi. This means that Tesla could be sending us a positive signal about its 4680s battery production and is ready to disrupt a new segment of the auto industry.Tesla IRThe Bottom LineOptimus could give Tesla a huge boost in cash flow, if it manages to solve and integrate true AI into its Optimus robot and can mass produce it at very low cost. According to our assumptions, Tesla looks like an attractive investment, as the company is expected to outperform historical average benchmarks such as the S&P 500 with its automotive operations alone.Other complementary activities that generate cash flow, such as solar, batteries, Optimus, AI, computer applications and others, have great potential and could push the company's valuation beyond the $502.67 per share target, giving investors additional alpha if the projects succeed and are widely implemented. We believe Tesla's expertise in \"building the machines that make the machines\" puts them in pole position to dominate the innovative sectors in which Tesla operates.In essence, we fully support Elon Musk's view at AI Day that Tesla is essentially a succession of tech start-ups trying to solve some of the most difficult problems. All the recent positive news, amid one of Tesla's biggest one-week declines, makes Tesla stock all the more attractive to buy at this time, in our opinion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917872264,"gmtCreate":1665490013158,"gmtModify":1676537615195,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thx","listText":"Thx","text":"Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917872264","repostId":"1144731428","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915380818,"gmtCreate":1664957009934,"gmtModify":1676537535741,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"K thxxxxxxxxxx","listText":"K thxxxxxxxxxx","text":"K thxxxxxxxxxx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915380818","repostId":"2273895763","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915380111,"gmtCreate":1664956992133,"gmtModify":1676537535733,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915380111","repostId":"1138224911","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138224911","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664946069,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138224911?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 13:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138224911","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>The bear market in the S&amp;P 500 continues.</li><li>Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.</li><li>The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record amount of put purchases.</li><li>We explore in this article the payoff profiles of certain put options on the S&amp;P 500 and alternatives.</li></ul><p>Thesis</p><p>The bear market in the S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues unabated, even though we are in the midst of another bear market rally. Weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) and the U-turn in UK fiscal policy have triggered the latest rally, in a classic example of bad news is good news. Ultimately, the market will go towards fair value, as defined by its P/E ratio. Where the bottom lies in the index is as much dependent on the Earnings component as it is on the P/E de-rating:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8d1cab7ce0f8412e3abf5bb58c13706\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>S&amp;P 500 P/E Ratio (Alliance Bernstein)</span></p><p>We are of the opinion that we are moving towards the long-term average of 15x P/E ratio, with a -5% to -10% revision down in earnings. That should move the Index to the low 3000s levels.</p><p>If an investor is in agreement that we are heading lower, then there are a couple of alternatives available:</p><p>1) Liquidate all holdings and stay only in cash (it is yielding over 3% now, hence the new moniker TARA)</p><p>2) Hedge the portfolio via inverse ETFs</p><p>3) Buy puts</p><p>Investors are well aware of the current market dynamics with put buying at historic record levels:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77978d3aafc15a790fb5e9f0771025f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The upper part of the graph shows the amount spent of buying puts - please notice the historic spike up in the graph, while the lower part of the graph is premium spent on calls. Please note that during 2021 when TINA was in vogue the line was sky-high, while currently it has virtually collapsed. This translates into investors basically believing there is little upside in the market now, hence &#34;why spend cash on calls?&#34; type of mind-sets.</p><p>Current Options Pricing</p><p>Let us have a look at how the pricing looks like for certain maturities:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e1867749744c17c77fa767474020f5\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>The most important aspect for options pricing is volatility, which is now elevated:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24e4d10b819a964a93f6ee0dd072bce5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"518\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>VIX Levels (Investing.com)</span></p><p>Elevated volatility results in expensive options when an investor buys them. Rates have become a more relevant component as well, but for shorter dated options they represent the second most important factor.</p><p>If we have a look at Table 1, we have highlighted in a simple fashion the maturity pay-off profiles of current S&amp;P 500 put options. This presents the profit and loss upon maturity with an implied S&amp;P 500 target of 3,300. By subtracting the cost of the option, we can see the break-even price (basically where the S&amp;P 500 needs to be in order for an investor not to lose money). The most interesting aspect is the &#34;downside protection&#34; column, which gives us a sense of how much of the down move is hedged via put purchases.</p><p>We can see that given high implied volatility, the December puts only offer a 49% downside protection (i.e. if you bought the December puts now and the S&amp;P 500 went to 3,300 on expiry you would only make 49% on your option) while the front ended one in October gives an investor a 74% coverage.</p><h3>Put Mark-to-Market Volatility</h3><p>Let us also have a look at the November 18 360 strike puts and get a sense of how the mark-to-market would look like (the analysis is run utilizing a binomial options pricing methodology):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1be01e96767b5cf22eb897dd501e7f59\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Table 2 - MtM Volatility (Author)</p><p>In the tables above we took the current pricing on the Nov 18 360 strike SPY put and ran several price and maturity simulations to get a sense of how much protection the put offers. We can see that the breakeven upon maturity needs a market loss of at least -3% from current levels, and the pay-off profile generally accelerates after a -6% move.</p><p>The current pricing needs a significant front-ended drop for the options to be profitable. For example, if the S&amp;P 500 moves to 3,300 by the end of October, then the put option offers a 183% pay-off (i.e. the premium moves from 10.8 to 30.7, which results in a gain of 19.87 per contract). Conversely, if the price stays at 360 the profit and loss is -19% due to the option decay.</p><p>Let us marry up Table 1 with Table 2 to better understand the downside protection offered:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fe498f0d2131fbd58d941909e2f043a\" tg-width=\"465\" tg-height=\"112\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Table 3 (Author)</p><p>If we have a portfolio entirely invested in the S&amp;P 500 and a $360k notional, then a move to 3,300 would generate a loss around -30k which would be offset by a gain of 19k from the 10 contracts bought above. Hence, the portfolio loss would not be entirely covered, only 64% of the downside move. The reason for this coverage is the expensive options pricing.</p><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The S&amp;P 500 is on a down-trend, with many analysts expecting ultimate pricing in the low 3,000s. The index is experiencing both a P/E de-rating as well as a re-set on the earnings forecast. Current market pricing makes puts expensive, with 1- and 3-months puts currently priced to offer only 74% and 49% downside protection respectively. A retail investor buying puts at current levels needs an exponential gap-down (above -6%) in the next 40 days in order to be significantly profitable on the options, with the caveat that the options will only partially protect the investor&#39;s portfolios. Inverse ETFs are also an alternative in the current environment, but the pay-off profile is significantly different, with the losses uncapped if the market rallies.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Is It Worth It To Buy Puts Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 13:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4544590-spy-worth-buy-puts-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138224911","content_text":"SummaryThe bear market in the S&P 500 continues.Volatility remains elevated as investors scramble to hedge their portfolios.The herd mentality is in full display with the past weeks having seen record amount of put purchases.We explore in this article the payoff profiles of certain put options on the S&P 500 and alternatives.ThesisThe bear market in the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) continues unabated, even though we are in the midst of another bear market rally. Weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) and the U-turn in UK fiscal policy have triggered the latest rally, in a classic example of bad news is good news. Ultimately, the market will go towards fair value, as defined by its P/E ratio. Where the bottom lies in the index is as much dependent on the Earnings component as it is on the P/E de-rating:S&P 500 P/E Ratio (Alliance Bernstein)We are of the opinion that we are moving towards the long-term average of 15x P/E ratio, with a -5% to -10% revision down in earnings. That should move the Index to the low 3000s levels.If an investor is in agreement that we are heading lower, then there are a couple of alternatives available:1) Liquidate all holdings and stay only in cash (it is yielding over 3% now, hence the new moniker TARA)2) Hedge the portfolio via inverse ETFs3) Buy putsInvestors are well aware of the current market dynamics with put buying at historic record levels:The upper part of the graph shows the amount spent of buying puts - please notice the historic spike up in the graph, while the lower part of the graph is premium spent on calls. Please note that during 2021 when TINA was in vogue the line was sky-high, while currently it has virtually collapsed. This translates into investors basically believing there is little upside in the market now, hence \"why spend cash on calls?\" type of mind-sets.Current Options PricingLet us have a look at how the pricing looks like for certain maturities:The most important aspect for options pricing is volatility, which is now elevated:VIX Levels (Investing.com)Elevated volatility results in expensive options when an investor buys them. Rates have become a more relevant component as well, but for shorter dated options they represent the second most important factor.If we have a look at Table 1, we have highlighted in a simple fashion the maturity pay-off profiles of current S&P 500 put options. This presents the profit and loss upon maturity with an implied S&P 500 target of 3,300. By subtracting the cost of the option, we can see the break-even price (basically where the S&P 500 needs to be in order for an investor not to lose money). The most interesting aspect is the \"downside protection\" column, which gives us a sense of how much of the down move is hedged via put purchases.We can see that given high implied volatility, the December puts only offer a 49% downside protection (i.e. if you bought the December puts now and the S&P 500 went to 3,300 on expiry you would only make 49% on your option) while the front ended one in October gives an investor a 74% coverage.Put Mark-to-Market VolatilityLet us also have a look at the November 18 360 strike puts and get a sense of how the mark-to-market would look like (the analysis is run utilizing a binomial options pricing methodology):Table 2 - MtM Volatility (Author)In the tables above we took the current pricing on the Nov 18 360 strike SPY put and ran several price and maturity simulations to get a sense of how much protection the put offers. We can see that the breakeven upon maturity needs a market loss of at least -3% from current levels, and the pay-off profile generally accelerates after a -6% move.The current pricing needs a significant front-ended drop for the options to be profitable. For example, if the S&P 500 moves to 3,300 by the end of October, then the put option offers a 183% pay-off (i.e. the premium moves from 10.8 to 30.7, which results in a gain of 19.87 per contract). Conversely, if the price stays at 360 the profit and loss is -19% due to the option decay.Let us marry up Table 1 with Table 2 to better understand the downside protection offered:Table 3 (Author)If we have a portfolio entirely invested in the S&P 500 and a $360k notional, then a move to 3,300 would generate a loss around -30k which would be offset by a gain of 19k from the 10 contracts bought above. Hence, the portfolio loss would not be entirely covered, only 64% of the downside move. The reason for this coverage is the expensive options pricing.ConclusionThe S&P 500 is on a down-trend, with many analysts expecting ultimate pricing in the low 3,000s. The index is experiencing both a P/E de-rating as well as a re-set on the earnings forecast. Current market pricing makes puts expensive, with 1- and 3-months puts currently priced to offer only 74% and 49% downside protection respectively. A retail investor buying puts at current levels needs an exponential gap-down (above -6%) in the next 40 days in order to be significantly profitable on the options, with the caveat that the options will only partially protect the investor's portfolios. Inverse ETFs are also an alternative in the current environment, but the pay-off profile is significantly different, with the losses uncapped if the market rallies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915380915,"gmtCreate":1664956978037,"gmtModify":1676537535732,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915380915","repostId":"2272851355","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272851355","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664953029,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272851355?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 14:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are Netflix Investors Facing a Streaming Apocalypse?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272851355","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A survey suggests the streaming giant could be facing the loss of 18 million subscribers.","content":"<div>\n<p>Netflix  could be staring down a subscriber collapse. A consumer survey indicates that 25% of the streaming giant's members may be planning to dump their subscription this year, and if they actually ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/is-netflix-facing-a-massive-subscriber-collapse/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are Netflix Investors Facing a Streaming Apocalypse?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre Netflix Investors Facing a Streaming Apocalypse?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 14:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/is-netflix-facing-a-massive-subscriber-collapse/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Netflix  could be staring down a subscriber collapse. A consumer survey indicates that 25% of the streaming giant's members may be planning to dump their subscription this year, and if they actually ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/is-netflix-facing-a-massive-subscriber-collapse/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/is-netflix-facing-a-massive-subscriber-collapse/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272851355","content_text":"Netflix  could be staring down a subscriber collapse. A consumer survey indicates that 25% of the streaming giant's members may be planning to dump their subscription this year, and if they actually follow through, it would be disastrous for the business.But how likely is that to happen? Although the streaming service suffered back-to-back periods of subscriber losses in the first two quarters of the year -- and its first decline in more than a decade -- the streamer also promised it will rebound in the third quarter and regain virtually all those who fled. So which way could things go for subscriptions?A lack of perceived valueResults from a Review.org survey of 1,000 Americans in August found one out of four plan to drop Netflix this year. With almost 74 million subscribers in the U.S. and Canada at the end of the second quarter, a 25% loss would represent about 18 million subscribers at a cost of approximately $272 million in revenue.The biggest reason cited for abandoning the streamer is cost. Netflix hiked its basic subscription plan in January to $10 a month, while the standard plan went up to $15.50 a month, and the premium plan rose to $20, amounting to increases of 11%, 20%, and 25%, respectively. These price hikes also mean Netflix has the highest average plan cost among all major streaming services.Some subscribers feel the streaming service is just no longer worth the money. Fully 30% of survey respondents said Netflix no longer has the content they want to watch. That's not actually so different from what others have found. A Whip Media report said Netflix ranked dead last in perceived value among nine different streaming services.Forbes recently pointed out that almost all of Netflix top 10 movies and TV shows have \"rotten\" audience scores on Rotten Tomatoes.People are still tuning inYet, as much as subscribers chafe under the high cost, low-quality programming on Netflix, it remains the most popular streaming service by far and is the one service most streaming subscribers would keep above all others. Variety reported 31% of users said Netflix was the one service they would keep compared to 19% who said Warner Bros Discovery's HBO Max was a keeper and the 17% willing to maintin Hulu, which is jointly owned by Disney and Comcast.Consumers subscribe to an average of four different streaming services, and Netflix remains the most popular service being found in approximately three quarters of all U.S. households. It is watched far more than any other, including Amazon Prime Video, which people don't really subscribe to for the movies anyway.Because there is such a glut of streaming services, we may see a shakeout in the future. Disney, for example, is considering folding Hulu into Disney+ when it finally acquires Comcast's stake in 2024 (if an acquisition doesn't occur sooner), and Warner Bros may fold Discovery+ into HBO Max.The rise of low-cost services, though, has forced Netflix to introduce an ad-supported subscription tier at a relative discount beginning Nov. 1. While users who might otherwise cancel because of high prices could end up trading down, it might also result in Netflix cannibalizing its higher subscription tiers.Netflix is also cracking down on account-sharing and is beginning to charge for households using an account outside of the primary residence, forcing people to subscribe who previously didn't. However Cowen & Co. estimates Netflix could generate $1.6 billion in incremental revenue by eliminating account sharing globally.Take a wait-and-see approachNetflix is at a crossroads, and while many are forecasting it could lose several million subscribers this year, it is nowhere near the nuclear-winter levels the consumer survey indicates. Moreover, the other estimates see 2022 just being an anomaly, with subscriber tallies expected to begin growing again in 2023.Investors might still want to use caution. At 23 times trailing earnings and next year's estimates, and at more than 200 times the free cash flow it produces, Netflix isn't a cheap stock for a company whose business is in serious flux. The streaming giant still needs to adjust to the massive growth of competition it now faces, and that could take time to finally figure out.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915380055,"gmtCreate":1664956957877,"gmtModify":1676537535725,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915380055","repostId":"2273327868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273327868","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664959185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273327868?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 16:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273327868","media":"Barron's","summary":"For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything b","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.</p><p>Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all up to bat. They&#39;ll be followed the next week by even more financials, including Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS).</p><p>While their results may come in close succession, their stock performances may diverge.</p><p>Banks are grabbing headlines again, albeit in the worst way, amid mounting concerns about Swiss giant Credit Suisse <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">$(CS)$</a>. Barron&#39;s argued that Credit Suisse was unlikely to go the way of Lehman Brothers, and that as a whole U.S. banks had less to worry about in terms of systematic contagion from the firm&#39;s woes.</p><p>Nonetheless, it would be glib to therefore conclude they don&#39;t face their own gauntlet this earnings season.</p><p>Credit Suisse&#39;s problems may be its own, but a recession in Europe, now seeming all but inevitable, would have reverberations far beyond the Continent. Commentators are still debating whether or not the U.S. can sidestep the same fate, but even if it does, fears of a recession typically suppress bank stocks -- and plenty of others.</p><p>Indeed higher interest rates, which many fear could tip the economic scales, cut both ways for banks. Initial public offerings are down, as are the value of mergers, leading to a return of layoffs.</p><p>Still, that&#39;s not to say investors should avoid the sector entirely, particularly given low valuations and what may be overly pessimistic profit outlooks.</p><p>Barron&#39;s previously argued that J.P. Morgan was oversold, and Citigroup&#39;s Keith Horowitz argues much the same Tuesday. He reiterated a Buy rating and $135 price target on J.P. Morgan stock while opening a positive catalyst watch on the shares ahead of earnings, as he believes a &#34;earnings beat on the top line will lead to upward revisions on full year guidance.&#34;</p><p>He sees banks in general as attractively priced for longer-term investors, given low valuations and the tendency of the market to overestimate the pressure on banks during downturns -- particularly as credit risk comes at a time when banks will see some benefit from a nonzero rate environment. While regulatory risk remains a worry, given changeable capital requirements for banks, he argues that&#39;s not an insurmountable obstacle.</p><p>Horowitz upgraded Bank of New York Mellon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">$(BK)$</a> stock to Buy from Neutral, citing its limited credit risk, but also argues investors could do well with pair trades this earnings season. He notes that Bank of New York Mellon trades at the highest implied cost of equity capital (COE) in his coverage universe, while Northern Trust <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRS\">$(NTRS)$</a> trades at the lowest; the latter also deserves some caution, he writes, given greater risk for downward revisions given the market-sensitive nature of some of its revenue.</p><p>In another pair trade, he warns that Truist Financial (TFC) looks vulnerable to negative earnings revisions, due to net interest income (NII) and expenses, along with higher credit risk, while Wells Fargo looks better positioned.</p><p>Goldman Sachs&#39; Richard Ramsden agrees, as he upgraded Wells Fargo stock to Buy from Neutral on Monday, bumping his price target up by $2 to $48. He, too, believes that the company has less credit risk in a potential recession, given less exposure to credit cards, and that its loan growth can fuel further NII. In addition, he highlights its &#34;best-in-class revenue upside&#34; that could drive an &#34;underappreciated earnings growth story.&#34;</p><p>By contrast, he downgraded Citigroup stock to Neutral from Buy, while lowering his target to $47 from $54. Ramsden&#39;s base case isn&#39;t for a recession, but should it come to that, Citi could have to limit its balance sheet growth to fund more reserves, while it also skews more heavily toward credit cards. Even absent that, he argues that Citi, despite meaningful progress, will still have to build more capital to achieve its higher common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) ratio, leaving less room for earnings upside.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that Wells Fargo has seen relatively minimal downward earnings revisions in recent months, according to FactSet. The stock has had more positive momentum in the past 90 days, holding up better than its financial peers and the broader market.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 16:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PNC":"PNC金融","BAC":"美国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","USB":"美国合众银行","C":"花旗","WFC":"富国银行","MS":"摩根士丹利","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273327868","content_text":"For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all up to bat. They'll be followed the next week by even more financials, including Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS).While their results may come in close succession, their stock performances may diverge.Banks are grabbing headlines again, albeit in the worst way, amid mounting concerns about Swiss giant Credit Suisse $(CS)$. Barron's argued that Credit Suisse was unlikely to go the way of Lehman Brothers, and that as a whole U.S. banks had less to worry about in terms of systematic contagion from the firm's woes.Nonetheless, it would be glib to therefore conclude they don't face their own gauntlet this earnings season.Credit Suisse's problems may be its own, but a recession in Europe, now seeming all but inevitable, would have reverberations far beyond the Continent. Commentators are still debating whether or not the U.S. can sidestep the same fate, but even if it does, fears of a recession typically suppress bank stocks -- and plenty of others.Indeed higher interest rates, which many fear could tip the economic scales, cut both ways for banks. Initial public offerings are down, as are the value of mergers, leading to a return of layoffs.Still, that's not to say investors should avoid the sector entirely, particularly given low valuations and what may be overly pessimistic profit outlooks.Barron's previously argued that J.P. Morgan was oversold, and Citigroup's Keith Horowitz argues much the same Tuesday. He reiterated a Buy rating and $135 price target on J.P. Morgan stock while opening a positive catalyst watch on the shares ahead of earnings, as he believes a \"earnings beat on the top line will lead to upward revisions on full year guidance.\"He sees banks in general as attractively priced for longer-term investors, given low valuations and the tendency of the market to overestimate the pressure on banks during downturns -- particularly as credit risk comes at a time when banks will see some benefit from a nonzero rate environment. While regulatory risk remains a worry, given changeable capital requirements for banks, he argues that's not an insurmountable obstacle.Horowitz upgraded Bank of New York Mellon $(BK)$ stock to Buy from Neutral, citing its limited credit risk, but also argues investors could do well with pair trades this earnings season. He notes that Bank of New York Mellon trades at the highest implied cost of equity capital (COE) in his coverage universe, while Northern Trust $(NTRS)$ trades at the lowest; the latter also deserves some caution, he writes, given greater risk for downward revisions given the market-sensitive nature of some of its revenue.In another pair trade, he warns that Truist Financial (TFC) looks vulnerable to negative earnings revisions, due to net interest income (NII) and expenses, along with higher credit risk, while Wells Fargo looks better positioned.Goldman Sachs' Richard Ramsden agrees, as he upgraded Wells Fargo stock to Buy from Neutral on Monday, bumping his price target up by $2 to $48. He, too, believes that the company has less credit risk in a potential recession, given less exposure to credit cards, and that its loan growth can fuel further NII. In addition, he highlights its \"best-in-class revenue upside\" that could drive an \"underappreciated earnings growth story.\"By contrast, he downgraded Citigroup stock to Neutral from Buy, while lowering his target to $47 from $54. Ramsden's base case isn't for a recession, but should it come to that, Citi could have to limit its balance sheet growth to fund more reserves, while it also skews more heavily toward credit cards. Even absent that, he argues that Citi, despite meaningful progress, will still have to build more capital to achieve its higher common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) ratio, leaving less room for earnings upside.It's also worth noting that Wells Fargo has seen relatively minimal downward earnings revisions in recent months, according to FactSet. The stock has had more positive momentum in the past 90 days, holding up better than its financial peers and the broader market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWX":1,"MS":0.9,"C":0.9,"USB":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"PNC":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9917682636,"gmtCreate":1665500024625,"gmtModify":1676537617315,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917682636","repostId":"2274656821","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274656821","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665501541,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274656821?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274656821","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<div>\n<p>October got off to an encouraging start, but it didn't take long for the markets to start selling off. Stocks still generally closed out the week higher. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/10/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/10/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>October got off to an encouraging start, but it didn't take long for the markets to start selling off. Stocks still generally closed out the week higher. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/10/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GFI":"金田","APRN":"Blue Apron Holdings Inc.","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/10/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274656821","content_text":"October got off to an encouraging start, but it didn't take long for the markets to start selling off. Stocks still generally closed out the week higher. The \"three stocks to avoid\" in my column last week that I thought were going to lose to the market -- Apple, Conagra Brands, and Gold Fields -- rose 1.3%%, 0.7%, and 5.9%, respectively, averaging out to a 2.6% uptick.The S&P 500 experienced a 1.5% move lower, better than two of the three stocks but still short of the overall return. I was wrong. I have, though, been right in 32 of the past 51 weeks, or 63% of the time.Now let's look at the week ahead. I see Walgreens Boots Alliance, Blue Apron, and, again, Gold Fields as stocks you might want to consider steering clear of this week. Let's go over my near-term concerns with all three investments.1. Walgreens Boots AllianceIt isn't easy being a drugstore operator these days. New platforms are upending and undercutting the way we fulfill prescriptions. E-commerce and third-party delivery apps are eating away at the need to drive to a drugstore for stocked essentials. It's against this grim backdrop that Walgreens Boots Alliance will step up to deliver financial results this week for the quarter that ended in August.On the surface it may seem insane to bet against Walgreens Boots Alliance at this point. The stock hit a new 10-year low on Friday, and it's now trading for just five times trailing earnings. The stock is yielding a record high of 6.2%. This could make it a magnet for income-chasing value investors, but you may want to wait until it announces its quarterly results this week. Analysts see revenue and earnings per share declining 6% and 34%, respectively.Analysts see revenue recovering next year, but Wall Street's eyeing just 1% growth. The bottom line is expected to keep shrinking, and it's easy to see why. This is a highly leveraged company. Having more than $38 billion in debt is a bad look heading into a time where refinancing rates are skyrocketing. Walgreens Boots Alliance may seem like a smart idea at five times trailing earnings, but would you say the same if I told you that it's fetching seven times forward earnings? The fundamentals are going to the wrong way.2. Blue ApronOne of last week's biggest losers was Blue Apron. The pioneer of home-delivered meal kits shed more than half of its value, down 56% after announcing a stock offering. You may not think announcing a modest $15 million at-the-market equity offering would result in the shedding of more than $100 million in market cap, but think about it. If the news sank the stock and Blue Apron went on with the offering anyway, it's a sign of how desperate it has become for liquidity.There's a lot going wrong here. Growth is a missing ingredient, as revenue has failed to top a 2% year-over-year gain in each of the last four years. Losses are mounting, and Blue Apron has posted a larger deficit than analysts were expecting in at least the last four quarters. With too many competitors promoting aggressively to win their way into your kitchen, this is not going to be moneymaker for investors in the near term.3. Gold FieldsI went with Gold Fields last week because I felt gold miners would slip if the market bounced back in October. I got the second part right. Stocks did bounce back. Unfortunately for this particular call, gold prices moved even higher. It also only helped Gold Fields that it would schedule a shareholder meeting to vote on a pending deal for a Canadian gold miner that was initially valued at $6.7 billion.Gold isn't an inverse market fund. It may be a flight to safety when there's turmoil, but the shiny previous metal has still lost value this year. I still think investors will rotate out of gold if this early October rally continues into the new trading week.It's going to be a bumpy road for some of these investments. If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Walgreens, Blue Apron, and Gold Fields this week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WBA":0.9,"GFI":0.9,"APRN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988025949,"gmtCreate":1666627413381,"gmtModify":1676537780724,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok thx","listText":"Ok thx","text":"Ok thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988025949","repostId":"2277240299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2277240299","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666685056,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2277240299?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-25 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2277240299","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Recession-proof stocks must offer something that makes investors want to buy them even when the economy is tanking.","content":"<div>\n<p>We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Which Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhich Stocks Are Most Likely to Thrive in a Recession? Here's What History Shows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-25 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XLU":"公共事业指数ETF-SPDR","WMT":"沃尔玛","JNJ":"强生","DG":"美国达乐公司","VRTX":"福泰制药","XLP":"消费品指数ETF-SPDR主要消费品","XLB":"材料ETF","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/23/stocks-most-likely-to-thrive-in-recession/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2277240299","content_text":"We won't officially be in a recession until the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. However, you can nearly throw a rock in any direction and find an economist who thinks a recession is probably on the way.For example, Johns Hopkins economics professor Steve Hanke stated a month ago that he believes there's at least an 80% chance of a recession. Non-profit research group The Conference Board recently pegged the probability at 96%. The latest Bloomberg economic model projects a 100% chance of a recession by October 2023.These forecasts don't guarantee that a recession is coming. But it's possible that the current bear market will continue for a while longer. That doesn't mean that every stock will be a big loser, though. Which stocks are most likely to thrive in a recession? Here's what history shows.Some bad newsThe SPDR Select Sector exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are good proxies for gauging how different sectors perform during recessions. One primary downside of using them is that most of these ETFs have only been around since the late 1990s. However, the U.S. has experienced three recessions during that period, so the SPDR Select Sector ETFs should be able to help in determining which stocks historically thrive in a recession.I've got some bad news, though. None of the SPDR Select Sector ETFs performed well in all three recessions that occurred over the past 25 years.The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund held up well during the recession of 2001. However, it still slid a little. The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF performed similarly during the first recession of this century. (The shaded area in the charts below indicates the period when the U.S. economy was in recession.)XLP data by YChartsHowever, both of these ETFs plunged during the Great Recession that began in late 2007 and went through mid-2009. So did every other sector ETF -- including (perhaps surprisingly) the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund.XLP data by YChartsAll of the sector ETFs also tanked during the brief coronavirus-fueled recession of 2020. However, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund didn't fall nearly as much as the others did.Looking for exceptionsThe cold, hard truth is that no category of stocks thrives in all recessions. But it's clear from examining the past that consumer staples stocks tend to perform better than most. Your best bet, though, is to look for exceptions. I'm referring to stocks that have factors working to their advantage so much that investors want to buy them even when the overall economy stinks.Johnson & Johnson stood out as this kind of stock during the recession of 2001. The healthcare giant continued to deliver revenue and earnings growth throughout the period. It completed the $10.5 billion acquisition of ALZA Corporation. The blue-chip stock was also viewed as a safe haven for investors worried about the dot-com bubble bursting.JNJ data by YChartsWalmart performed exceptionally well during the Great Recession, especially considering how most stocks plunged. Investors realized that the serious economic downturn would mean that consumers would have to tighten their purse strings. That worked to the advantage of the big discount retailer.WMT data by YChartsModerna's share price skyrocketed during the quick recession of 2020. That's not surprising. The company was one of the early leaders in developing coronavirus vaccines. Moderna was a natural choice for investors to flock to during the uncertain times at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.MRNA data by YChartsLikely outliers in the next recessionWhich stocks might be outliers in the next recession, assuming it isn't too far off? I think we can learn from history.Walmart could again defy gravity if the U.S. economy enters into a recession. My view is that another discount retailer, Dollar General, should do so as well.Dollar General is outperforming Walmart so far this year. The company continues to build new stores. It's also expanding its frozen and refrigerated goods offerings. Dollar General should benefit as consumers increasingly try to stretch their dollars.Just as Johnson & Johnson and Moderna performed well during two previous recessions, I suspect another drug stock will do so during the next recession -- Vertex Pharmaceuticals. Vertex's revenue and earnings will almost certainly grow robustly even amid an economic downturn.The big biotech also has a pipeline with multiple potential blockbusters likely on the way. Vertex expects to file for regulatory approvals for one of them (gene-editing therapy exa-cel) before year-end. With fears of a recession increasing, I think that Vertex is arguably the best stock to buy right now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XLU":0.9,"DG":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"XLP":0.9,"VRTX":0.9,"XLB":0.9,"WMT":0.9,"JNJ":0.71}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988025121,"gmtCreate":1666627497263,"gmtModify":1676537780727,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree thc","listText":"Agree thc","text":"Agree thc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988025121","repostId":"1121547995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121547995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666619640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121547995?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121547995","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch tha","content":"<div>\n<p>Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-24 21:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121547995","content_text":"Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have happened in 2022 after big tech companies’ earnings. In February, a big drop in Amazon.com’s shares shaved $191 billion from its market value,the most everfor a company in a single day.Options traders appear to be betting the volatility will continue over the this week, when several big tech companies report their earnings results. (Their forecasts don’t indicate the direction of the move, only the size.)Options traders are wagering on around a 5.4% move in Apple shares after its earnings this week, above the average move of around 3.3% after the past eight earnings releases, according to Cboe Global Markets data.They’re betting on a roughly 7% move for Alphabet after its earnings and through Friday. The stock has swung around 5.1% on average after the past eight releases.Expectations for Meta’s post-earnings move are even higher, with a roughly 13% post-earnings move forecast through Friday. The stock has swung around 9.2% on average after the past eight releases, according to Cboe.The big swings for tech stocks have continued last week. Snap sharesplunged 28% Fridayafter it disclosed a further slowdown in sales growth and signaled the digital-ad market could remain sluggish. Something similar happened in July, when it posted its weakest-ever quarterly sales growth as a public company.Analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500’s communications sector, home to several of the big tech companies known as FAANG stocks, to decline by 13% this quarter, among the worst within the broader index. And all five FAANG stocks have posted double-digit declines this year after big simultaneous gains over the past three.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".SPX":1,"AAPL":1,"AMZN":1,".IXIC":1,"MSFT":1,"GOOGL":1,"META":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917872264,"gmtCreate":1665490013158,"gmtModify":1676537615195,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thx","listText":"Thx","text":"Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917872264","repostId":"1144731428","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915317550,"gmtCreate":1664956913770,"gmtModify":1676537535717,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thx","listText":"Thx","text":"Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915317550","repostId":"2272834099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272834099","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664983956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272834099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272834099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's no guarantee these Buffett stocks will take off. But the chances appear to be pretty good.","content":"<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","CVX":"雪佛龙"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272834099","content_text":"Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for Berkshire Hathaway.That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire's portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn't be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.1. ChevronChevron now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett's portfolio. It's one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron's share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron's valuation isn't so great that the stock wouldn't benefit from further global supply tightening.2. Occidental PetroleumBuffett has become a huge fan of Occidental Petroleum. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire's entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.But there's another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it's almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.3. AppleYou could make a good case that Apple ranks as Buffett's favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire's portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire's \"four giants.\" The other three \"giants\" -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.Don't think for a second that Apple can't rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock's recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don't always pan out.At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple's new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CVX":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"OXY":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986380550,"gmtCreate":1666886504371,"gmtModify":1676537824977,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986380550","repostId":"2278722957","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2278722957","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1666862660,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2278722957?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-27 17:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Extremely Safe Stocks That Can Double Your Money by 2028","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2278722957","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These highly profitable and time-tested stocks can deliver triple-digit total returns for patient investors over the next six years.","content":"<div>\n<p>It's been quite some time since investors have contended with such a volatile year on Wall Street. According to data provided by Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, there have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/26/3-extremely-safe-stocks-double-your-money-by-2028/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Extremely Safe Stocks That Can Double Your Money by 2028</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Extremely Safe Stocks That Can Double Your Money by 2028\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-27 17:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/26/3-extremely-safe-stocks-double-your-money-by-2028/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It's been quite some time since investors have contended with such a volatile year on Wall Street. According to data provided by Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, there have been ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/26/3-extremely-safe-stocks-double-your-money-by-2028/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"T":"At&T","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","V":"Visa","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/26/3-extremely-safe-stocks-double-your-money-by-2028/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2278722957","content_text":"It's been quite some time since investors have contended with such a volatile year on Wall Street. According to data provided by Charlie Bilello, the CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, there have been 53 trading sessions where the S&P 500 has lost at least 1% of its value in 2022, through this past weekend. That's the highest annual total since the Great Recession in 2009, and we still have more than two months left in the year.If this isn't enough proof that it's been a trying year, all three major U.S. stock indexes have fallen into a bear market.Image source: Getty Images.But just because equities are volatile, it doesn't mean investors have to head to the sideline. On the contrary, bear markets have historically been an excellent time to put your money to work.What's more, investors have options for putting their cash to work. Those folks who don't have a stomach for heightened volatility or risk can buy safe stocks to weather the short-term storm and steadily grow their wealth over time. What follows are three extremely safe stocks with long histories of profitability, and they can double your money, including dividends paid, by 2028.AT&TThe first exceptionally safe stock that has the potential to double your money, including dividends paid, by 2028 is telecom giant AT&T. As of this past weekend, it was yielding 6.49%. Over the next six years, this would equate to a 39% return from dividends alone.In terms of volatility, AT&T has a beta of 0.65. This means it's about 65% as volatile as the benchmark S&P 500. For instance, if the S&P 500 fell 1%, we would expect the stock to decline by just 0.65%. This lack of volatility is a reflection of wireless services and smartphones evolving into basic necessities over the past two decades. No matter how poorly the U.S. economy or stock markets perform, churn rates for AT&T's wireless services remain relatively low.Although AT&T's faster-growth days are now firmly in the rearview mirror, it does have two catalysts that can move the needle in the years to come. Without question, its biggest catalyst is the 5G revolution. It's been roughly a decade since wireless download speeds were significantly improved. While it will cost a pretty penny for AT&T to upgrade its infrastructure, the expectation is for consumers and businesses to respond by using more data, which happens to be where the company generates its beefiest margins.To add to this point, AT&T's third-quarter results featured 5.6% revenue growth in wireless service over the prior-year period. That's the fastest rate of wireless growth for the company in over a decade, which provides tangible evidence that its investments in 5G infrastructure are paying off.The other notable driver for AT&T is the spinoff of WarnerMedia in April, which subsequently merged with Discovery to create Warner Bros. Discovery. When the deal closed, AT&T received $40.4 billion in cash, as well as the retention of select debt by Warner Bros. Discovery. The point being that AT&T's debt-burdened balance sheet gained meaningful flexibility following this spinoff, which means its market-topping dividend should continue being paid out.VisaWhereas AT&T's dividend should play a key role in helping investors possibly double their money by 2028, payment processor Visa's dividend yield of 0.79% is merely icing on the cake. Share price appreciation should do virtually all of the heavy lifting over the next six years.One of the primary reasons Visa's volatility clocks in below that of the S&P 500 is its predictable cyclical nature. Cyclical stocks tend to ebb and flow with the U.S. economy. Even though downturns are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they don't last very long. So Visa's outperformance reflects that the U.S. and global economies spend a considerably longer amount of time expanding than contracting.Something else working in Visa's favor is its domestic and international opportunities. Within the U.S., it held the lion's share of credit card network purchase volume (54%), as of 2020. In fact, it was the only one of the four major credit card networks in the U.S. to demonstrably expand its market share following the Great Recession.As for its international prowess, Visa can benefit from the fact that most global transactions are still being conducted with cash. It will likely take decades to penetrate some of the most underbanked regions of the globe, which is a fancy way of saying that Visa has decades left to sustain a double-digit growth runway.Also, as I've previously pointed out, Visa's conservative operating approach is a positive. Its purposeful avoidance of lending means it isn't exposed to potential loan losses when recessions arise. By strictly focusing on payment processing, Visa is ensuring that it bounces back from recessions faster than its peers, as well as maintaining a profit margin above 50%.Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett. Image source: The Motley Fool.Berkshire HathawayThe third extremely safe stock that can double your money by 2028 is none other than conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway. Although Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, it continues the theme of the companies on this list offering lower volatility than the S&P 500.While Berkshire Hathaway might not be a household name, its billionaire leader certainly is. Warren Buffett has been CEO of Berkshire since 1965, and in that time has overseen the creation of more than $620 billion in shareholder value. Perhaps more important, he's delivered an average annual return of 20.1% for his shareholders. Even though past performance is no indication of future results, a 57-year track record is sufficient evidence that Buffett has a knack for outperforming the broader market.One of the most overlooked reasons for Berkshire Hathaway's success is its investment portfolio, which is packed with dividend stocks. Companies that pay a regular dividend are usually profitable, and history shows they tend to vastly outperform stocks that don't pay a dividend. Over the coming 12 months, Buffett's company is on pace to collect more than $6 billion in dividend income.Warren Buffett happens to be a big fan of leaning on cyclical business as well. Rather than trying to foolishly time when a recession will occur, the Oracle of Omaha has packed his company's portfolio with businesses that'll thrive from the natural expansion of the U.S. and global economies over time, such as bank stocks.Berkshire Hathaway's capital-return program is another reason for investors to be excited. Though Berkshire doesn't pay a dividend, there isn't a stock Buffett and his right-hand man Charlie Munger love buying more than shares of their own company. Over a four-year stretch, Buffett and Munger have repurchased $62.1 billion worth of Berkshire Hathaway Class A and Class B stock.For businesses with steady or growing net income, stock repurchases can have a positive impact on earnings per share. This can make an already reasonably priced stock like Berkshire Hathaway appear all the more attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"V":0.9,"T":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988025303,"gmtCreate":1666627433603,"gmtModify":1676537780725,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Kkz","listText":"Kkz","text":"Kkz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988025303","repostId":"1121547995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121547995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666619640,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121547995?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-24 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121547995","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch tha","content":"<div>\n<p>Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wsj_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Options Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOptions Traders Bet on More Volatility in a Bad Year for Tech Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-24 21:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1><strong>The Wall Street Journal</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-today-2022-10-24/card/options-traders-bet-on-more-volatility-d5jYtBT9VE55N9TP7wwt?page=1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121547995","content_text":"Large swings for big technology stocks have been common this year during a head-spinning stretch that has dragged the group down.Some of the biggest one-day changes in market value in history have happened in 2022 after big tech companies’ earnings. In February, a big drop in Amazon.com’s shares shaved $191 billion from its market value,the most everfor a company in a single day.Options traders appear to be betting the volatility will continue over the this week, when several big tech companies report their earnings results. (Their forecasts don’t indicate the direction of the move, only the size.)Options traders are wagering on around a 5.4% move in Apple shares after its earnings this week, above the average move of around 3.3% after the past eight earnings releases, according to Cboe Global Markets data.They’re betting on a roughly 7% move for Alphabet after its earnings and through Friday. The stock has swung around 5.1% on average after the past eight releases.Expectations for Meta’s post-earnings move are even higher, with a roughly 13% post-earnings move forecast through Friday. The stock has swung around 9.2% on average after the past eight releases, according to Cboe.The big swings for tech stocks have continued last week. Snap sharesplunged 28% Fridayafter it disclosed a further slowdown in sales growth and signaled the digital-ad market could remain sluggish. Something similar happened in July, when it posted its weakest-ever quarterly sales growth as a public company.Analysts expect earnings for the S&P 500’s communications sector, home to several of the big tech companies known as FAANG stocks, to decline by 13% this quarter, among the worst within the broader index. And all five FAANG stocks have posted double-digit declines this year after big simultaneous gains over the past three.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1,".SPX":1,"AAPL":1,"AMZN":1,".IXIC":1,"MSFT":1,"GOOGL":1,"META":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917872501,"gmtCreate":1665490043503,"gmtModify":1676537615201,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917872501","repostId":"1126298657","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126298657","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665501481,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126298657?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is A Bargain With Optimus And Recent Events","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126298657","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla has significantly improved its Optimus robot in a very short time, and could generate huge cash flow in these cases.Many positive catalysts have materialized around Tesla recently, despit","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Tesla has significantly improved its Optimus robot in a very short time, and could generate huge cash flow in these cases.</li><li>Many positive catalysts have materialized around Tesla recently, despite the fact that the stock suffered one of its heaviest losses in recent years.</li><li>We judge that the automotive component of Tesla&#39;s business should be able to outperform broad benchmarks, allowing the stock to achieve double-digit annual returns.</li><li>Tesla is expanding across most major emerging industries, presumably including energy, transportation, computing, manufacturing, robotics and more.</li></ul><p>Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) introduced its highly anticipated Optimus/ Bumble C robot this week atAI Day. There were also a slew of news announcements from Tesla and others that had very positive implications for the future. Nevertheless, Tesla shares this week seem headed for their longest losing streak since March 2021.</p><p>We think that Tesla&#39;s new humanoid robot, in addition to developments in their real world AI, computing and other Tesla products currently represent a very attractive buying opportunity for long-term holders of the stock, and we expect it to outperform broad benchmarks even in times of macroeconomic distress.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/194dff43d71f26606d51256c830a4945\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Bumble C</p><p>As Tesla&#39;s Humanoid Robot is still under development, they were able to show their prototype &#34;Bumble C,&#34; which is to become a low-cost and mass-producible Optimus robot.</p><p>The initial release and demonstration of the product was followed by a variety ofreactions from expertsin the robotics industry and the investment community. Interestingly, Tesla received high praise from experts from the robotics industry, while there were many skeptics from the investment community.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6d0c0a5d8694dfa2f56d1cf75ee8831\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>We want to highlight the key differences between what makes Tesla&#39;s bot so different from competitors such as Boston Dynamics, Honda and others:</p><ul><li>Optimus is intended for mass production (i.e., thousands or millions of units).</li><li>Project progress was made in just 6 to 8 months, compared with decades at competitors.</li><li>The robot is expected to be affordable, costing only US$20K to manufacture, or &#34;significantly less expensive than an EV.&#34;</li><li>Tesla has a formidable AI advantage in the real world thanks to data collection efforts such as their FSD beta.</li><li>It is built for efficiency, and optimized for defined tasks rather than optimized for aesthetics.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48961fc406e0289960175b055105f015\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>Critics who compared the Optimus prototype to Boston Dynamics, for example, should note that Boston Dynamics has been aroundfor 30 years, and their humanoid robot Atlas has been in development for nearly 10 years, rather than 6 to 8 months. Boston Dynamics has also shown no intention of mass-producing their Atlas Robot, or at what price. However, their smaller robot dog, Spot, is currently available at a price ofabout US$75,000. At a price of US$20,000, not only small businesses but also households should be able to afford an Optimus robot.</p><p>The same goes for other concepts, such asHonda&#39;s Asimorobot, a humanoid robot that has been in development since the 1980s and was officially created in the year 2000. Although initially intended for mass development, Honda stopped producing Asimo robots to &#34;focus on more practical applications.&#34; None were actually sold, but Hondagave a pseudo quote of as much as $2.5 million per robot.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s robot may not have the same dexterity and human-like character because it is not primarily intended to perform tasks such as parkour or dancing. We also believe that Tesla, thanks to its real-world data collection, for example with FSD Beta, and its fleet ofmore than 3 million cars, has a head start on developing a functional AI-driven humanoid robot.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5780d19805b143394d1cccb72a98ac6d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>It is also important to note that this event was not aimed at investors, as thesole purpose was to recruit the best possible talent for Tesla and their Optimus project. We believe that recruiting the most talented engineers and employees at Tesla is a huge advantage for innovation within the company and to stay ahead of the competition.</p><p>For example, a recent survey of 49,197 American studentsby Universum, which specializes in employer branding, found that Tesla and SpaceX were named as their ideal employers. The combination of the ability to attract the best team of engineers, expertise in scaling and mass production, combined with a strong lead in data collection and years of expertise in real-world AI development, leads us to consider that Tesla is poised to become the leading company in humanoid robotics.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fbe300b4c6989fade2f3522cfee49eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>The Cost Savings</p><p>One of the main reasons Tesla is likely to make robots for a price tag of only US$20K is probably their ability to scale, vertically integrate and simplify concepts by leveraging their advances in automotive technology. Remember, Tesla specializes in &#34;building the machine that builds the machine,&#34; like their Gigafactories.</p><p>For example,in their Q2 report, they showed that the number of robots in their gigafactory body shop could be reduced by 70% compared to their first Model 3 body shop through large castings and parts consolidation. They are still on a quest for simplification with each new product and factory. Another example could be Tesla, which reportedlyremoved the ultrasonic sensorson Model 3 and Model Y vehicles because they are more confident in their AI and full self-driving capabilities.</p><p>Vertical integration in innovation is always an important concept because the unit price of certain components can drop significantly as a result ofWright&#39;s Law. For example, according to Wright&#39;s law, the cost of batteries drops 28% for every cumulative doubling of the number of units produced. That concept could be accelerated, as some of the robots&#39; components have similarities to what is used in EVs, and could be vertically integrated. The Optimus robots could also be used in Tesla&#39;s own production chain, producing more cars and robots.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb9b7b69eca0bcc3d547dcee35162406\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>There is still some debate whether Tesla will sell the robots at a fixed price, lease them, or possibly require an annual subscription for the robot and its software. If the Optimus could be produced for US$20K, it could represent a significant cost savings for employers that completely exceeds the output and productivity of an average worker. Tesla&#39;s FSD Beta software alone currently costs US$15K, and sells very well.</p><p>Compared to the average US work week, which is about 38.7 hours, Optimus can stay connected 24/7 when working in a factory, bringing the total work week to 168 hours. That&#39;s a 4x increase in output. Let&#39;s say the robot can replace 4 full-time factory or warehouse workers performing boring and repetitive tasks, employers could save up to$29,250 per employeeper year.</p><p>That makes $117,000 per robot per year, since its output is more than 4 times that of an employee. If the average lifetime of a robot is 8 years, this means a value of $936,000 per robot over its lifetime. This does not include the cost of employing workers, elimination of personnel costs, worker training and productivity loss due to illness or injury. Each year, approximately 2.3 million people worldwide suffer a work-related injury.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e5dc767ae2f36f0f5ba809cf7b9637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>With a value of US$936,000 and a COGS of US$20,000 in mass production, each unit produced could generate US$916,000 in value. Suppose Tesla takes a 30% gross margin on the value of this robot, just as they dowith their cars, that leaves another US$274,800 in gross profit per unit produced, or US$274.8BN per million units produced.</p><p>The big difference in why Tesla could succeed in building a truly intelligent robot capable of performing realistic tasks lies in itsdata advantageand its unique ability to collect data in real time. Even as we speak, thousands of cars worldwide on FSD Beta are collecting data to train Tesla&#39;s AI. It has been collecting such data since 2014, has a dataset of 4.8 million clips and has trained 75,778 models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee780b98aa96a00300a696e280cf786\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>Tesla also showed that it is serious about AI, by giving us a big update on their Dojo supercomputer they are building, and what plans they have for it. Tesla currently still uses a lot of Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs, but plans to increase its own capabilities for training its neural net.</p><p>It should also significantly reduce costs, and help Tesla maintain a data advantage. As Tesla&#39;s fleet grows exponentially with increased production and therollout of FSD betato more users, the amount of data Tesla and FSD beta collect in real-world applications also scales exponentially. Currently, Tesla has already driven over 35 million miles with its FSD beta cumulatively. Currently, they appear to be adding 10 million miles per quarter and expanding exponentially.</p><p>Tesla currently claims that it can replace 6 GPU boxes with just 1Dojo tile, which they also claim costs less than 1 GPU box itself, further significantly improving their cost efficiency and form factor in building out their AI systems.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f969773a012764dc54e04de9cedeaa0e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla AI Day</p><p>The Automotive Side</p><p>Tesla has ventured into many areas, including batteries, solar, AI, self-driving, computers, robotics and more. While all of these ventures are promising and show great potential, we believe Tesla&#39;s auto side itself can generate better returns than broad benchmarks such as the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p>In the transition to EVs, we believe that with Wright&#39;s Law in place,EVs will be on parin price with ICE vehicles by next year 2024, and it will be a no-brainer to buy an EV. Especially as US oil prices remain high.OPEC+, for example, announced this week a production cut of 2 million barrels per day. Not only will it become cheaper to buy an EV, including tax breaks, but it will also likely cost less to maintain and refuel, increasing the adoption rate exponentially.</p><p>In 2021, the EV adoption rate was 6.6%, and we believe that by 2030 about 60% of car sales will be EVs, as EVs continue to fall below the same price as ICE vehicles as explained in our previous model. Under our assumptions, Tesla&#39;s market share in EVs will remain stagnant at 20% as competition enters the market. If both criteria are met, Tesla is expected to sell 10.8 million vehicles per year by 2030.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98543a4dc086e1db225ea538cc5c71f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla IR</p><p>This is also in line withElon Musk&#39;s expectationto have a fleet of more than 100 million cars in 10 years. Tesla has set a goal of producing more than double our estimate of 20 million units by 2030. However, we believe Tesla&#39;s average selling price will drop from US$50,450 in 2021 to US$42,000 in 2030 as a result of a new smaller sedan, with a target price closer to US$25,000-US$35,0000, in addition to a price cut to keep up with competitive pressures.</p><p>For a more in-depth explanation of our parameters for our valuation, please read our previous valuation modelpublished here on Seeking Alpha. We expect Tesla to generate approximately US$172.37BN in gross automotive revenue by 2030, with a gross margin of up to 38%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa7a1659836da3ee6ab572806224152\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"131\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Author&#39;s Calculations</p><p>OpEx is also likely to improve significantly over time, as Elon Musk himself alluded that &#34;OpEx. is embarrassingly high.&#34; Tesla&#39;s adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.6% in 2021, which we predict could reach 32% over the next 8 years. These improvements include cost reductions, historical margin improvement, expansion of software-based revenues and low fixed costs.</p><p>This would lead us to a final adjusted EBITDA of US$145.15 billion for the automotive section. If 5% annualshare dilutionis also taken into account, that would lead to adjusted EBITDA of US$31.42 per share by 2030. At a reasonable multiple of 16x, we expect Tesla&#39;s auto section to propel Tesla to $502.67 per share, or a CAGR of 10.7% that exceeds the historical average return of the S&amp;P 500.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7f2dced45f19caff10798400d7a8bf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla IR</p><p>We used the mean of theS&amp;P 500 multiplier, but Tesla could be trading higher at that point because it could also be valued as a software company trading atmuch higher multiples. Also note that the S&amp;P 500 is more likely to trade below its historical average return because economic growth is currently stalling.</p><p>Developments, Macroeconomics &amp; Risks</p><p>While many critics expect Tesla to have a demand-side problem, we believe the opposite is true. Tesla historically and still has a huge order backlog, and has recently had toraise pricesagain to ensure that the customer experience does not suffer from immense wait times.</p><p>According toTeslike, which tracks Tesla data, the company still has a backlog of 317,000 vehicles despite price increases. This continuous backlog of orders could also serve as a great buffer if we are heading for anearnings recessionby the end of this year, as we and many economists expect.</p><p>In contrast, looking at economic indicators, we see an environment of rising yields, which are expected to rise to 4.5-4.75% by next year, making it more expensive for Tesla to expand operations, raise additional capital to build new Gigafactories and ramp up production as previously planned in a 0 interest rate environment, they face macroeconomic headwinds.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0104878c08973b5c44e0881be20c144d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Data by YCharts</p><p>On the other hand, OPEC+ announced this week its intention to cut production by2 million barrels per day as the group seeks to keep crude above $90 per barrel. This would also boost demand and accelerate the use of EVs as they reach the same price as ICE vehicles. Another big risk for Tesla is the production, or scaling up of its batteries,specifically 4680s in the future.</p><p>Tesla also announced this week itsdeliveries for Q22022: 365,923 vehicles were produced and 343,830 delivered, which was less than the deliveries expected by Wall Street. While some investors thought it was due to a &#34;demand-side problem,&#34; Tesla mentioned that it was actually due to the fact that it is &#34;increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity, and at a reasonable cost during peak logistics weeks.&#34; We think Tesla made the right decision, saving capital for investors rather than placing hasty orders toward the end of the quarter to meet Wall Street&#39;s expectations.</p><p>Tesla also recently received aninvestment graderating for its bonds for the first time, meaning they are rated BBB by S&amp;P global and are no longer &#34;junk bonds.&#34; Even more good news came this week, as Elon Musk also hinted that Tesla will start production onDecember 1stand deliver its first Semitruck to customer Pepsi. This means that Tesla could be sending us a positive signal about its 4680s battery production and is ready to disrupt a new segment of the auto industry.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7faae7db7817551fd0be2c8bcc40fe0c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Tesla IR</p><p>The Bottom Line</p><p>Optimus could give Tesla a huge boost in cash flow, if it manages to solve and integrate true AI into its Optimus robot and can mass produce it at very low cost. According to our assumptions, Tesla looks like an attractive investment, as the company is expected to outperform historical average benchmarks such as the S&amp;P 500 with its automotive operations alone.</p><p>Other complementary activities that generate cash flow, such as solar, batteries, Optimus, AI, computer applications and others, have great potential and could push the company&#39;s valuation beyond the $502.67 per share target, giving investors additional alpha if the projects succeed and are widely implemented. We believe Tesla&#39;s expertise in &#34;building the machines that make the machines&#34; puts them in pole position to dominate the innovative sectors in which Tesla operates.</p><p>In essence, we fully support Elon Musk&#39;s view at AI Day that Tesla is essentially a succession of tech start-ups trying to solve some of the most difficult problems. All the recent positive news, amid one of Tesla&#39;s biggest one-week declines, makes Tesla stock all the more attractive to buy at this time, in our opinion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is A Bargain With Optimus And Recent Events</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is A Bargain With Optimus And Recent Events\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 23:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545812-tesla-stock-bargain-with-optimus-and-recent-events><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryTesla has significantly improved its Optimus robot in a very short time, and could generate huge cash flow in these cases.Many positive catalysts have materialized around Tesla recently, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545812-tesla-stock-bargain-with-optimus-and-recent-events\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545812-tesla-stock-bargain-with-optimus-and-recent-events","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126298657","content_text":"SummaryTesla has significantly improved its Optimus robot in a very short time, and could generate huge cash flow in these cases.Many positive catalysts have materialized around Tesla recently, despite the fact that the stock suffered one of its heaviest losses in recent years.We judge that the automotive component of Tesla's business should be able to outperform broad benchmarks, allowing the stock to achieve double-digit annual returns.Tesla is expanding across most major emerging industries, presumably including energy, transportation, computing, manufacturing, robotics and more.Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) introduced its highly anticipated Optimus/ Bumble C robot this week atAI Day. There were also a slew of news announcements from Tesla and others that had very positive implications for the future. Nevertheless, Tesla shares this week seem headed for their longest losing streak since March 2021.We think that Tesla's new humanoid robot, in addition to developments in their real world AI, computing and other Tesla products currently represent a very attractive buying opportunity for long-term holders of the stock, and we expect it to outperform broad benchmarks even in times of macroeconomic distress.Bumble CAs Tesla's Humanoid Robot is still under development, they were able to show their prototype \"Bumble C,\" which is to become a low-cost and mass-producible Optimus robot.The initial release and demonstration of the product was followed by a variety ofreactions from expertsin the robotics industry and the investment community. Interestingly, Tesla received high praise from experts from the robotics industry, while there were many skeptics from the investment community.Tesla AI DayWe want to highlight the key differences between what makes Tesla's bot so different from competitors such as Boston Dynamics, Honda and others:Optimus is intended for mass production (i.e., thousands or millions of units).Project progress was made in just 6 to 8 months, compared with decades at competitors.The robot is expected to be affordable, costing only US$20K to manufacture, or \"significantly less expensive than an EV.\"Tesla has a formidable AI advantage in the real world thanks to data collection efforts such as their FSD beta.It is built for efficiency, and optimized for defined tasks rather than optimized for aesthetics.Tesla AI DayCritics who compared the Optimus prototype to Boston Dynamics, for example, should note that Boston Dynamics has been aroundfor 30 years, and their humanoid robot Atlas has been in development for nearly 10 years, rather than 6 to 8 months. Boston Dynamics has also shown no intention of mass-producing their Atlas Robot, or at what price. However, their smaller robot dog, Spot, is currently available at a price ofabout US$75,000. At a price of US$20,000, not only small businesses but also households should be able to afford an Optimus robot.The same goes for other concepts, such asHonda's Asimorobot, a humanoid robot that has been in development since the 1980s and was officially created in the year 2000. Although initially intended for mass development, Honda stopped producing Asimo robots to \"focus on more practical applications.\" None were actually sold, but Hondagave a pseudo quote of as much as $2.5 million per robot.Tesla's robot may not have the same dexterity and human-like character because it is not primarily intended to perform tasks such as parkour or dancing. We also believe that Tesla, thanks to its real-world data collection, for example with FSD Beta, and its fleet ofmore than 3 million cars, has a head start on developing a functional AI-driven humanoid robot.Tesla AI DayIt is also important to note that this event was not aimed at investors, as thesole purpose was to recruit the best possible talent for Tesla and their Optimus project. We believe that recruiting the most talented engineers and employees at Tesla is a huge advantage for innovation within the company and to stay ahead of the competition.For example, a recent survey of 49,197 American studentsby Universum, which specializes in employer branding, found that Tesla and SpaceX were named as their ideal employers. The combination of the ability to attract the best team of engineers, expertise in scaling and mass production, combined with a strong lead in data collection and years of expertise in real-world AI development, leads us to consider that Tesla is poised to become the leading company in humanoid robotics.Tesla AI DayThe Cost SavingsOne of the main reasons Tesla is likely to make robots for a price tag of only US$20K is probably their ability to scale, vertically integrate and simplify concepts by leveraging their advances in automotive technology. Remember, Tesla specializes in \"building the machine that builds the machine,\" like their Gigafactories.For example,in their Q2 report, they showed that the number of robots in their gigafactory body shop could be reduced by 70% compared to their first Model 3 body shop through large castings and parts consolidation. They are still on a quest for simplification with each new product and factory. Another example could be Tesla, which reportedlyremoved the ultrasonic sensorson Model 3 and Model Y vehicles because they are more confident in their AI and full self-driving capabilities.Vertical integration in innovation is always an important concept because the unit price of certain components can drop significantly as a result ofWright's Law. For example, according to Wright's law, the cost of batteries drops 28% for every cumulative doubling of the number of units produced. That concept could be accelerated, as some of the robots' components have similarities to what is used in EVs, and could be vertically integrated. The Optimus robots could also be used in Tesla's own production chain, producing more cars and robots.Tesla AI DayThere is still some debate whether Tesla will sell the robots at a fixed price, lease them, or possibly require an annual subscription for the robot and its software. If the Optimus could be produced for US$20K, it could represent a significant cost savings for employers that completely exceeds the output and productivity of an average worker. Tesla's FSD Beta software alone currently costs US$15K, and sells very well.Compared to the average US work week, which is about 38.7 hours, Optimus can stay connected 24/7 when working in a factory, bringing the total work week to 168 hours. That's a 4x increase in output. Let's say the robot can replace 4 full-time factory or warehouse workers performing boring and repetitive tasks, employers could save up to$29,250 per employeeper year.That makes $117,000 per robot per year, since its output is more than 4 times that of an employee. If the average lifetime of a robot is 8 years, this means a value of $936,000 per robot over its lifetime. This does not include the cost of employing workers, elimination of personnel costs, worker training and productivity loss due to illness or injury. Each year, approximately 2.3 million people worldwide suffer a work-related injury.Tesla AI DayWith a value of US$936,000 and a COGS of US$20,000 in mass production, each unit produced could generate US$916,000 in value. Suppose Tesla takes a 30% gross margin on the value of this robot, just as they dowith their cars, that leaves another US$274,800 in gross profit per unit produced, or US$274.8BN per million units produced.The big difference in why Tesla could succeed in building a truly intelligent robot capable of performing realistic tasks lies in itsdata advantageand its unique ability to collect data in real time. Even as we speak, thousands of cars worldwide on FSD Beta are collecting data to train Tesla's AI. It has been collecting such data since 2014, has a dataset of 4.8 million clips and has trained 75,778 models.Tesla AI DayTesla also showed that it is serious about AI, by giving us a big update on their Dojo supercomputer they are building, and what plans they have for it. Tesla currently still uses a lot of Nvidia (NVDA) GPUs, but plans to increase its own capabilities for training its neural net.It should also significantly reduce costs, and help Tesla maintain a data advantage. As Tesla's fleet grows exponentially with increased production and therollout of FSD betato more users, the amount of data Tesla and FSD beta collect in real-world applications also scales exponentially. Currently, Tesla has already driven over 35 million miles with its FSD beta cumulatively. Currently, they appear to be adding 10 million miles per quarter and expanding exponentially.Tesla currently claims that it can replace 6 GPU boxes with just 1Dojo tile, which they also claim costs less than 1 GPU box itself, further significantly improving their cost efficiency and form factor in building out their AI systems.Tesla AI DayThe Automotive SideTesla has ventured into many areas, including batteries, solar, AI, self-driving, computers, robotics and more. While all of these ventures are promising and show great potential, we believe Tesla's auto side itself can generate better returns than broad benchmarks such as the S&P 500 (SPY).In the transition to EVs, we believe that with Wright's Law in place,EVs will be on parin price with ICE vehicles by next year 2024, and it will be a no-brainer to buy an EV. Especially as US oil prices remain high.OPEC+, for example, announced this week a production cut of 2 million barrels per day. Not only will it become cheaper to buy an EV, including tax breaks, but it will also likely cost less to maintain and refuel, increasing the adoption rate exponentially.In 2021, the EV adoption rate was 6.6%, and we believe that by 2030 about 60% of car sales will be EVs, as EVs continue to fall below the same price as ICE vehicles as explained in our previous model. Under our assumptions, Tesla's market share in EVs will remain stagnant at 20% as competition enters the market. If both criteria are met, Tesla is expected to sell 10.8 million vehicles per year by 2030.Tesla IRThis is also in line withElon Musk's expectationto have a fleet of more than 100 million cars in 10 years. Tesla has set a goal of producing more than double our estimate of 20 million units by 2030. However, we believe Tesla's average selling price will drop from US$50,450 in 2021 to US$42,000 in 2030 as a result of a new smaller sedan, with a target price closer to US$25,000-US$35,0000, in addition to a price cut to keep up with competitive pressures.For a more in-depth explanation of our parameters for our valuation, please read our previous valuation modelpublished here on Seeking Alpha. We expect Tesla to generate approximately US$172.37BN in gross automotive revenue by 2030, with a gross margin of up to 38%.Author's CalculationsOpEx is also likely to improve significantly over time, as Elon Musk himself alluded that \"OpEx. is embarrassingly high.\" Tesla's adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.6% in 2021, which we predict could reach 32% over the next 8 years. These improvements include cost reductions, historical margin improvement, expansion of software-based revenues and low fixed costs.This would lead us to a final adjusted EBITDA of US$145.15 billion for the automotive section. If 5% annualshare dilutionis also taken into account, that would lead to adjusted EBITDA of US$31.42 per share by 2030. At a reasonable multiple of 16x, we expect Tesla's auto section to propel Tesla to $502.67 per share, or a CAGR of 10.7% that exceeds the historical average return of the S&P 500.Tesla IRWe used the mean of theS&P 500 multiplier, but Tesla could be trading higher at that point because it could also be valued as a software company trading atmuch higher multiples. Also note that the S&P 500 is more likely to trade below its historical average return because economic growth is currently stalling.Developments, Macroeconomics & RisksWhile many critics expect Tesla to have a demand-side problem, we believe the opposite is true. Tesla historically and still has a huge order backlog, and has recently had toraise pricesagain to ensure that the customer experience does not suffer from immense wait times.According toTeslike, which tracks Tesla data, the company still has a backlog of 317,000 vehicles despite price increases. This continuous backlog of orders could also serve as a great buffer if we are heading for anearnings recessionby the end of this year, as we and many economists expect.In contrast, looking at economic indicators, we see an environment of rising yields, which are expected to rise to 4.5-4.75% by next year, making it more expensive for Tesla to expand operations, raise additional capital to build new Gigafactories and ramp up production as previously planned in a 0 interest rate environment, they face macroeconomic headwinds.Data by YChartsOn the other hand, OPEC+ announced this week its intention to cut production by2 million barrels per day as the group seeks to keep crude above $90 per barrel. This would also boost demand and accelerate the use of EVs as they reach the same price as ICE vehicles. Another big risk for Tesla is the production, or scaling up of its batteries,specifically 4680s in the future.Tesla also announced this week itsdeliveries for Q22022: 365,923 vehicles were produced and 343,830 delivered, which was less than the deliveries expected by Wall Street. While some investors thought it was due to a \"demand-side problem,\" Tesla mentioned that it was actually due to the fact that it is \"increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity, and at a reasonable cost during peak logistics weeks.\" We think Tesla made the right decision, saving capital for investors rather than placing hasty orders toward the end of the quarter to meet Wall Street's expectations.Tesla also recently received aninvestment graderating for its bonds for the first time, meaning they are rated BBB by S&P global and are no longer \"junk bonds.\" Even more good news came this week, as Elon Musk also hinted that Tesla will start production onDecember 1stand deliver its first Semitruck to customer Pepsi. This means that Tesla could be sending us a positive signal about its 4680s battery production and is ready to disrupt a new segment of the auto industry.Tesla IRThe Bottom LineOptimus could give Tesla a huge boost in cash flow, if it manages to solve and integrate true AI into its Optimus robot and can mass produce it at very low cost. According to our assumptions, Tesla looks like an attractive investment, as the company is expected to outperform historical average benchmarks such as the S&P 500 with its automotive operations alone.Other complementary activities that generate cash flow, such as solar, batteries, Optimus, AI, computer applications and others, have great potential and could push the company's valuation beyond the $502.67 per share target, giving investors additional alpha if the projects succeed and are widely implemented. We believe Tesla's expertise in \"building the machines that make the machines\" puts them in pole position to dominate the innovative sectors in which Tesla operates.In essence, we fully support Elon Musk's view at AI Day that Tesla is essentially a succession of tech start-ups trying to solve some of the most difficult problems. All the recent positive news, amid one of Tesla's biggest one-week declines, makes Tesla stock all the more attractive to buy at this time, in our opinion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9913492058,"gmtCreate":1664036210774,"gmtModify":1676537382121,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9913492058","repostId":"2269833450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988524108,"gmtCreate":1666793010404,"gmtModify":1676537807212,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988524108","repostId":"1129024455","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988525438,"gmtCreate":1666792921924,"gmtModify":1676537807197,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988525438","repostId":"2278672309","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2791,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9988024908,"gmtCreate":1666627573404,"gmtModify":1676537780755,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comments","listText":"Comments","text":"Comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9988024908","repostId":"1112709963","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917682555,"gmtCreate":1665500048577,"gmtModify":1676537617323,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No","listText":"No","text":"No","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917682555","repostId":"2274220575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2274220575","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1665499501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2274220575?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 22:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is NIO Stock a Buy Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2274220575","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Chinese EV maker looks cheap relative to its industry peers.","content":"<div>\n<p>The Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO has taken investors on a wild ride since its IPO in Sept. 2018. It went public at $6.26 per share and surged to an all-time high of $62.84 last February, but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/11/is-nio-stock-a-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs NIO Stock a Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 22:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/11/is-nio-stock-a-buy-now/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO has taken investors on a wild ride since its IPO in Sept. 2018. It went public at $6.26 per share and surged to an all-time high of $62.84 last February, but ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/11/is-nio-stock-a-buy-now/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来","NIO.SI":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/11/is-nio-stock-a-buy-now/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2274220575","content_text":"The Chinese electric vehicle maker NIO has taken investors on a wild ride since its IPO in Sept. 2018. It went public at $6.26 per share and surged to an all-time high of $62.84 last February, but subsequently stumbled back to about $14. Like many other EV makers, NIO initially attracted a stampede of bulls during the stimulus-induced rally in growth stocks, but quickly lost its luster amid rising interest rates and other macro headwinds.Yet NIO is already producing tens of thousands of vehicles each year, putting it far ahead of smaller EV makers that are struggling to ramp up their production. At three times this year's sales, NIO's stock also looks cheap relative to most of its industry peers. So could this be the right time for patient investors to pick up some shares of NIO?Reviewing NIO's core businessNIO launched its first electric vehicle, the high-end EP9 supercar, back in 2016. However, this vehicle was never mass produced, and none of its 16 production models were ever registered for use on normal roads. In late 2017, NIO properly entered the mainstream EV market with the launch of its full-size ES8 SUV.NIO subsequently launched two additional mid-size SUVs, the ES6 and EC6, in 2019 and 2020, respectively. In 2021, it rolled out two sedans, the ET5 and ET7, and started delivering both vehicles earlier this year. It also launched another \"mid-large\" SUV, the ES7, this June. The following table illustrates just how rapidly NIO ramped up its production since its IPO:Period9M 2022FY 2021FY 2020FY 2019FY 2018Deliveries82,43491,42943,72820,56511,348Data source: NIO.NIO's year-over-year growth in deliveries notably decelerated in the first nine months of 2022, but it mainly blames that slowdown on COVID-19 disruptions, extreme weather conditions, and supply chain challenges instead of softer demand for its vehicles. NIO's Chinese competitor Li Auto, which delivered 90,491 Li ONE SUVs in 2021, also experienced a similar slowdown, with 86,927 deliveries in the first nine months of 2022.However, both NIO and Li are still far ahead of their smaller American counterparts like Lucid, which expects to produce 6,000 to 7,000 vehicles this year, and Rivian, which is trying to ramp up its production to manufacture 25,000 vehicles this year.NIO also differs from its domestic and overseas counterparts because it uses battery-swapping stations, which allow drivers to quickly swap out their depleted batteries for fully charged ones, instead of charging stations. That approach makes NIO similar to the Taiwanese electric scooter maker Gogoro, which also builds networks of battery-swapping stations for riders. Just like Gogoro, NIO charges subscription fees to access those stations.Reviewing NIO's main challengesNIO is gradually expanding overseas into smaller European markets like Norway, but it still generates most of its revenue in China. That concentration exposes it to the unpredictable lockdowns related to China's zero-COVID policy and the weakening of the yuan against the U.S. dollar, which reduces the value of its overseas shares. As a Chinese company, NIO could also be hurt by tougher trade restrictions for semiconductors, as well as the ongoing threats to delist U.S.-listed Chinese stocks.Analysts expect NIO's sales to rise 61% in 2022 and increase another 82% in 2023, but those estimates seem a bit too bullish and don't seem to fully account for its decelerating shipments this year. Macroeconomic challenges could also curb the average consumer's demand for its pricey vehicles, which start at $70,000 to $80,000 (before subsidies).NIO is still deeply unprofitable, but analysts expect it to turn profitable in 2024. That might seem possible, since NIO's gross margin already rose from negative 5.2% in 2018 to positive 18.9% in 2021 as it scaled up its business. However, its gross margins also declined year-over-year in the first half of 2022 as the macro headwinds squeezed its vehicle margins while it ramped up its investments in its battery-swapping network.Therefore, analysts' expectations for NIO to turn profitable within two years -- which are pegged to its high sales estimates -- also seem too optimistic. On the bright side, NIO was still sitting on $8.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of June, compared to a net loss of $410 million in the first half of the year, so it won't run out of cash anytime soon. Its low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6 also gives it some room to raise fresh funds.Is it the right time to buy NIO?NIO looks cheap compared to Lucid and Rivian, which still trade at 31 and 17 times this year's sales, respectively. But it's still comparable to Li Auto, which also trades at about three times this year's sales. NIO and Li are both growing, but their valuations will remain depressed as long as so many macroeconomic and regulatory clouds are hanging over Chinese companies. Until some of those clouds dissipate, I wouldn't touch NIO, Li, or any other EV makers from China.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":0.6,"NIO.SI":0.6,"NIO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9915380055,"gmtCreate":1664956957877,"gmtModify":1676537535725,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915380055","repostId":"2273327868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2273327868","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1664959185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2273327868?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 16:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2273327868","media":"Barron's","summary":"For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything b","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.</p><p>Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all up to bat. They&#39;ll be followed the next week by even more financials, including Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS).</p><p>While their results may come in close succession, their stock performances may diverge.</p><p>Banks are grabbing headlines again, albeit in the worst way, amid mounting concerns about Swiss giant Credit Suisse <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">$(CS)$</a>. Barron&#39;s argued that Credit Suisse was unlikely to go the way of Lehman Brothers, and that as a whole U.S. banks had less to worry about in terms of systematic contagion from the firm&#39;s woes.</p><p>Nonetheless, it would be glib to therefore conclude they don&#39;t face their own gauntlet this earnings season.</p><p>Credit Suisse&#39;s problems may be its own, but a recession in Europe, now seeming all but inevitable, would have reverberations far beyond the Continent. Commentators are still debating whether or not the U.S. can sidestep the same fate, but even if it does, fears of a recession typically suppress bank stocks -- and plenty of others.</p><p>Indeed higher interest rates, which many fear could tip the economic scales, cut both ways for banks. Initial public offerings are down, as are the value of mergers, leading to a return of layoffs.</p><p>Still, that&#39;s not to say investors should avoid the sector entirely, particularly given low valuations and what may be overly pessimistic profit outlooks.</p><p>Barron&#39;s previously argued that J.P. Morgan was oversold, and Citigroup&#39;s Keith Horowitz argues much the same Tuesday. He reiterated a Buy rating and $135 price target on J.P. Morgan stock while opening a positive catalyst watch on the shares ahead of earnings, as he believes a &#34;earnings beat on the top line will lead to upward revisions on full year guidance.&#34;</p><p>He sees banks in general as attractively priced for longer-term investors, given low valuations and the tendency of the market to overestimate the pressure on banks during downturns -- particularly as credit risk comes at a time when banks will see some benefit from a nonzero rate environment. While regulatory risk remains a worry, given changeable capital requirements for banks, he argues that&#39;s not an insurmountable obstacle.</p><p>Horowitz upgraded Bank of New York Mellon <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">$(BK)$</a> stock to Buy from Neutral, citing its limited credit risk, but also argues investors could do well with pair trades this earnings season. He notes that Bank of New York Mellon trades at the highest implied cost of equity capital (COE) in his coverage universe, while Northern Trust <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRS\">$(NTRS)$</a> trades at the lowest; the latter also deserves some caution, he writes, given greater risk for downward revisions given the market-sensitive nature of some of its revenue.</p><p>In another pair trade, he warns that Truist Financial (TFC) looks vulnerable to negative earnings revisions, due to net interest income (NII) and expenses, along with higher credit risk, while Wells Fargo looks better positioned.</p><p>Goldman Sachs&#39; Richard Ramsden agrees, as he upgraded Wells Fargo stock to Buy from Neutral on Monday, bumping his price target up by $2 to $48. He, too, believes that the company has less credit risk in a potential recession, given less exposure to credit cards, and that its loan growth can fuel further NII. In addition, he highlights its &#34;best-in-class revenue upside&#34; that could drive an &#34;underappreciated earnings growth story.&#34;</p><p>By contrast, he downgraded Citigroup stock to Neutral from Buy, while lowering his target to $47 from $54. Ramsden&#39;s base case isn&#39;t for a recession, but should it come to that, Citi could have to limit its balance sheet growth to fund more reserves, while it also skews more heavily toward credit cards. Even absent that, he argues that Citi, despite meaningful progress, will still have to build more capital to achieve its higher common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) ratio, leaving less room for earnings upside.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that Wells Fargo has seen relatively minimal downward earnings revisions in recent months, according to FactSet. The stock has had more positive momentum in the past 90 days, holding up better than its financial peers and the broader market.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBank Earnings Could Give Clues About a Downturn. Now Is the Time to Be Choosy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 16:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PNC":"PNC金融","BAC":"美国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","USB":"美国合众银行","C":"花旗","WFC":"富国银行","MS":"摩根士丹利","GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/bank-stocks-earnings-wells-fargo-51664906133?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2273327868","content_text":"For banks, third-quarter-earnings season is just over a week away, but the results may be anything but uniform.Oct. 14 will see a slew of big banks report, with Citigroup (ticker: C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all up to bat. They'll be followed the next week by even more financials, including Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group (GS).While their results may come in close succession, their stock performances may diverge.Banks are grabbing headlines again, albeit in the worst way, amid mounting concerns about Swiss giant Credit Suisse $(CS)$. Barron's argued that Credit Suisse was unlikely to go the way of Lehman Brothers, and that as a whole U.S. banks had less to worry about in terms of systematic contagion from the firm's woes.Nonetheless, it would be glib to therefore conclude they don't face their own gauntlet this earnings season.Credit Suisse's problems may be its own, but a recession in Europe, now seeming all but inevitable, would have reverberations far beyond the Continent. Commentators are still debating whether or not the U.S. can sidestep the same fate, but even if it does, fears of a recession typically suppress bank stocks -- and plenty of others.Indeed higher interest rates, which many fear could tip the economic scales, cut both ways for banks. Initial public offerings are down, as are the value of mergers, leading to a return of layoffs.Still, that's not to say investors should avoid the sector entirely, particularly given low valuations and what may be overly pessimistic profit outlooks.Barron's previously argued that J.P. Morgan was oversold, and Citigroup's Keith Horowitz argues much the same Tuesday. He reiterated a Buy rating and $135 price target on J.P. Morgan stock while opening a positive catalyst watch on the shares ahead of earnings, as he believes a \"earnings beat on the top line will lead to upward revisions on full year guidance.\"He sees banks in general as attractively priced for longer-term investors, given low valuations and the tendency of the market to overestimate the pressure on banks during downturns -- particularly as credit risk comes at a time when banks will see some benefit from a nonzero rate environment. While regulatory risk remains a worry, given changeable capital requirements for banks, he argues that's not an insurmountable obstacle.Horowitz upgraded Bank of New York Mellon $(BK)$ stock to Buy from Neutral, citing its limited credit risk, but also argues investors could do well with pair trades this earnings season. He notes that Bank of New York Mellon trades at the highest implied cost of equity capital (COE) in his coverage universe, while Northern Trust $(NTRS)$ trades at the lowest; the latter also deserves some caution, he writes, given greater risk for downward revisions given the market-sensitive nature of some of its revenue.In another pair trade, he warns that Truist Financial (TFC) looks vulnerable to negative earnings revisions, due to net interest income (NII) and expenses, along with higher credit risk, while Wells Fargo looks better positioned.Goldman Sachs' Richard Ramsden agrees, as he upgraded Wells Fargo stock to Buy from Neutral on Monday, bumping his price target up by $2 to $48. He, too, believes that the company has less credit risk in a potential recession, given less exposure to credit cards, and that its loan growth can fuel further NII. In addition, he highlights its \"best-in-class revenue upside\" that could drive an \"underappreciated earnings growth story.\"By contrast, he downgraded Citigroup stock to Neutral from Buy, while lowering his target to $47 from $54. Ramsden's base case isn't for a recession, but should it come to that, Citi could have to limit its balance sheet growth to fund more reserves, while it also skews more heavily toward credit cards. Even absent that, he argues that Citi, despite meaningful progress, will still have to build more capital to achieve its higher common equity tier 1 capital (CET1) ratio, leaving less room for earnings upside.It's also worth noting that Wells Fargo has seen relatively minimal downward earnings revisions in recent months, according to FactSet. The stock has had more positive momentum in the past 90 days, holding up better than its financial peers and the broader market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWX":1,"MS":0.9,"C":0.9,"USB":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"PNC":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912938701,"gmtCreate":1664730580903,"gmtModify":1676537499113,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nicw","listText":"Nicw","text":"Nicw","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912938701","repostId":"1117881400","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117881400","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664675297,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117881400?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-02 09:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Get Paid To Buy Amazon 10% Lower","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117881400","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryWhat does not kill you is likely to make you stronger.Selling puts gives you exposure while n","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>What does not kill you is likely to make you stronger.</li><li>Selling puts gives you exposure while not risking your entire capital right away.</li><li>Market sentiments being this negative, now is a good time for longs with patience.</li></ul><p>It is June all over again for stocks. And things may get worse than June, as the major indices reached their YTD lows last week backed by many layers of fear. Now, almost every day feels like going to the slaughterhouse. It is not far-fetched to say stocks have faced quadruple whammies over the last year or so. Inflation, War, Fed Policies, and Foreign policies have each taken the spotlight in sending stocks lower. So much that the last COVID-related selloff we recall happened in November of last year.</p><p>With fear comes panic. With panic come the opportunities for investors with these traits:</p><ul><li>Patience and Long-term view</li><li>Enough capital or cash flow to survive market declines. By &#34;survive&#34; we mean the ability to at least retain your current standard of living. Even if that means the market going down another 50% from here.</li><li>Belief in the underlying stock.</li></ul><p>Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is one of the stocks that we believe in long term. We wrote this article back in June when the market was equally bad, suggesting investors sell puts at a price that was about 10% lower than the then-market price. By stroke of luck, Amazon has since outperformed the market handily, as Seeking Alpha has captured, as shown below. The point is not to tout such fleeting short-term &#34;success&#34; but rather to have the conviction to back a company you believe in through horrible market cycles.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2da51c1838f709bb6ee20b7dc9c4b1\" tg-width=\"441\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seekingalpha.com</p><p>In the interest of full disclosure, we did initiate a stock position in Amazon during this selloff. That is not to say we aren&#39;t interested in increasing our exposure to Amazon at attractive prices. But what is attractive and how does one get it? What if you want to buy Amazon but at a lower price? Sure, you may use a limit order, but what if the stock never gets to that point? You remain out of the game entirely. That is where selling puts comes into the picture, where you collect a premium right away for your skin in the game.</p><p>To keep things consistent with the previous article, let&#39;s look at a strike price that is about 10% lower than the current market price. It is interesting to note that the option premium (as a percentage of the underlying cost-basis) right now is much lower than it was back in June. Let&#39;s get into the details below.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e28fe73e367d3cb8b2112a0ba19280\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Think or Swim</p><p>Key data points</p><ul><li>Strike Price: $102</li><li>Expiration Date: October 7th, 2022</li><li>Premium: $0.48/share, for a total of $48.</li></ul><p>In simple words, the put seller collects $48 to buy 100 shares of Amazon at $102 if the stock reaches $102 or below by October 7th, 2022. Bear in mind that time decay is in favor of the option seller, meaning as days go by, the option values declines.</p><p>What&#39;s the expected return and possible outcomes?</p><p><b>Return:</b>The premium collected ($48) for setting aside $10,200 represents just 0.47% for a little more than week. While any positive return in the current market is welcome, this is in stark contrast to the 1.25% return in June for comparable timeframe and strike price. How is that possible? On paper, things are at least a little worse, much worse now than in June. So, should the option seller not be paid a higher premium to undertake the risk of buying the underlying stock? The only logical answer we can come to is that the market does not believe the stock will go that low within the expiration date. That sounds like a positive affirmation to us.</p><p><i>Outcome #1:</i>If Amazon stays above $102 by the expiration date, the option seller just retains mentioned above. The option seller will not be obligated to buy the shares.</p><p><i>Outcome #2:</i>If Amazon goes below $102 by the expiration date, the option seller will be forced to buy 100 shares at $102, irrespective of where the stock trades at that time. Keeping the premium netted in mind, the average cost in this case will be $101.52 ($102 minus $0.48).</p><p><i>Outcome #3:</i>As an option seller, one can &#34;buy to close&#34; anytime instead of waiting till the expiration date. That may be appealing to those who have the time and patience to play short-dated options many times over. But we typically let the option expire before choosing another chain (or another stock).</p><p><b>Many ways to skin the cat</b></p><p>The above chain was just one example. If you are looking for a higher return and a lower strike price, consider far-dated options like the one below. Our sweet spot has always been between a week and a month, as that give us enough time to react and at the same time does not tie up capital for too long.</p><p>In this example, the options seller agrees to buy 100 shares of Amazon at 100 should the stock reach that by October 28th, while collecting a premium of about $2.30 per share. A 2.3% return in a month for setting aside capital is something many would grab with both hands in the current market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d0613eb6ee06d8b31123d8c358ec1a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Think or Swim</p><p><b>Be aware of your risks and choices</b></p><p>Once again, please bear in mind that if your primary interest is in getting premiums, selling puts during down-trending markets may not be the best strategy. If the market blood bath continues, your stock may reach the strike price before you blink. However, if your interest is in acquiring the stock should things fall further, this is a wise strategy. The added income through premium does not hurt either.</p><p>While AWS is flourishing, Amazon&#39;s retail woes have been well documented.This article captures the essence of the company&#39;s over-expansion during COVID. Amazon is also likely to face higher tax bills as a result of the new minimum tax signed by the President in August. Roughly ~$3B sounds like pocket change to a trillion dollar empire but everything adds up especially when things look depressing.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>We were fully expecting the options premium for this exercise to be a lot higher (in terms of %) compared to June given how much shakier the market appears now. Granted, one sample is the worst anyone could go by, but this appears consistent at least within the Amazon chains we observed. The options market may be signaling that things are not as bad as feared, while yield is showing signs of topping.</p><p>Be aware of your risks, never go all in, stay invested in good companies and this too shall pass. Panic is not a strategy. Good luck.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Get Paid To Buy Amazon 10% Lower</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGet Paid To Buy Amazon 10% Lower\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-02 09:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543905-get-paid-to-buy-amazon-10-percent-lower><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryWhat does not kill you is likely to make you stronger.Selling puts gives you exposure while not risking your entire capital right away.Market sentiments being this negative, now is a good time ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543905-get-paid-to-buy-amazon-10-percent-lower\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543905-get-paid-to-buy-amazon-10-percent-lower","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117881400","content_text":"SummaryWhat does not kill you is likely to make you stronger.Selling puts gives you exposure while not risking your entire capital right away.Market sentiments being this negative, now is a good time for longs with patience.It is June all over again for stocks. And things may get worse than June, as the major indices reached their YTD lows last week backed by many layers of fear. Now, almost every day feels like going to the slaughterhouse. It is not far-fetched to say stocks have faced quadruple whammies over the last year or so. Inflation, War, Fed Policies, and Foreign policies have each taken the spotlight in sending stocks lower. So much that the last COVID-related selloff we recall happened in November of last year.With fear comes panic. With panic come the opportunities for investors with these traits:Patience and Long-term viewEnough capital or cash flow to survive market declines. By \"survive\" we mean the ability to at least retain your current standard of living. Even if that means the market going down another 50% from here.Belief in the underlying stock.Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is one of the stocks that we believe in long term. We wrote this article back in June when the market was equally bad, suggesting investors sell puts at a price that was about 10% lower than the then-market price. By stroke of luck, Amazon has since outperformed the market handily, as Seeking Alpha has captured, as shown below. The point is not to tout such fleeting short-term \"success\" but rather to have the conviction to back a company you believe in through horrible market cycles.Seekingalpha.comIn the interest of full disclosure, we did initiate a stock position in Amazon during this selloff. That is not to say we aren't interested in increasing our exposure to Amazon at attractive prices. But what is attractive and how does one get it? What if you want to buy Amazon but at a lower price? Sure, you may use a limit order, but what if the stock never gets to that point? You remain out of the game entirely. That is where selling puts comes into the picture, where you collect a premium right away for your skin in the game.To keep things consistent with the previous article, let's look at a strike price that is about 10% lower than the current market price. It is interesting to note that the option premium (as a percentage of the underlying cost-basis) right now is much lower than it was back in June. Let's get into the details below.Think or SwimKey data pointsStrike Price: $102Expiration Date: October 7th, 2022Premium: $0.48/share, for a total of $48.In simple words, the put seller collects $48 to buy 100 shares of Amazon at $102 if the stock reaches $102 or below by October 7th, 2022. Bear in mind that time decay is in favor of the option seller, meaning as days go by, the option values declines.What's the expected return and possible outcomes?Return:The premium collected ($48) for setting aside $10,200 represents just 0.47% for a little more than week. While any positive return in the current market is welcome, this is in stark contrast to the 1.25% return in June for comparable timeframe and strike price. How is that possible? On paper, things are at least a little worse, much worse now than in June. So, should the option seller not be paid a higher premium to undertake the risk of buying the underlying stock? The only logical answer we can come to is that the market does not believe the stock will go that low within the expiration date. That sounds like a positive affirmation to us.Outcome #1:If Amazon stays above $102 by the expiration date, the option seller just retains mentioned above. The option seller will not be obligated to buy the shares.Outcome #2:If Amazon goes below $102 by the expiration date, the option seller will be forced to buy 100 shares at $102, irrespective of where the stock trades at that time. Keeping the premium netted in mind, the average cost in this case will be $101.52 ($102 minus $0.48).Outcome #3:As an option seller, one can \"buy to close\" anytime instead of waiting till the expiration date. That may be appealing to those who have the time and patience to play short-dated options many times over. But we typically let the option expire before choosing another chain (or another stock).Many ways to skin the catThe above chain was just one example. If you are looking for a higher return and a lower strike price, consider far-dated options like the one below. Our sweet spot has always been between a week and a month, as that give us enough time to react and at the same time does not tie up capital for too long.In this example, the options seller agrees to buy 100 shares of Amazon at 100 should the stock reach that by October 28th, while collecting a premium of about $2.30 per share. A 2.3% return in a month for setting aside capital is something many would grab with both hands in the current market.Think or SwimBe aware of your risks and choicesOnce again, please bear in mind that if your primary interest is in getting premiums, selling puts during down-trending markets may not be the best strategy. If the market blood bath continues, your stock may reach the strike price before you blink. However, if your interest is in acquiring the stock should things fall further, this is a wise strategy. The added income through premium does not hurt either.While AWS is flourishing, Amazon's retail woes have been well documented.This article captures the essence of the company's over-expansion during COVID. Amazon is also likely to face higher tax bills as a result of the new minimum tax signed by the President in August. Roughly ~$3B sounds like pocket change to a trillion dollar empire but everything adds up especially when things look depressing.ConclusionWe were fully expecting the options premium for this exercise to be a lot higher (in terms of %) compared to June given how much shakier the market appears now. Granted, one sample is the worst anyone could go by, but this appears consistent at least within the Amazon chains we observed. The options market may be signaling that things are not as bad as feared, while yield is showing signs of topping.Be aware of your risks, never go all in, stay invested in good companies and this too shall pass. Panic is not a strategy. Good luck.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":139142372,"gmtCreate":1621603859896,"gmtModify":1704360401567,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol","listText":"Lol","text":"Lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/139142372","repostId":"2137190485","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2137190485","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1621603159,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2137190485?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-21 21:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Delta Air names GE exec Janki as CFO","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2137190485","media":"Reuters","summary":"May 21 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines on Friday named Dan Janki, the head of General Electric Co's powe","content":"<p>May 21 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines on Friday named Dan Janki, the head of General Electric Co's power unit, as its chief financial officer.</p>\n<p>Janki, who has served in a variety of senior roles at GE during his 25-year stint with the conglomerate, will join Delta Air in July and have an initial annual base salary of $650,000.</p>\n<p>Gary Chase and Bill Carroll have been serving as interim co-CFOs of the carrier after Paul Jacobson resigned in November to join General Motors as CFO.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Delta Air names GE exec Janki as CFO</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDelta Air names GE exec Janki as CFO\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-21 21:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>May 21 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines on Friday named Dan Janki, the head of General Electric Co's power unit, as its chief financial officer.</p>\n<p>Janki, who has served in a variety of senior roles at GE during his 25-year stint with the conglomerate, will join Delta Air in July and have an initial annual base salary of $650,000.</p>\n<p>Gary Chase and Bill Carroll have been serving as interim co-CFOs of the carrier after Paul Jacobson resigned in November to join General Motors as CFO.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AIRI":"Air Industries Group","DAL":"达美航空","GE":"GE航空航天"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2137190485","content_text":"May 21 (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines on Friday named Dan Janki, the head of General Electric Co's power unit, as its chief financial officer.\nJanki, who has served in a variety of senior roles at GE during his 25-year stint with the conglomerate, will join Delta Air in July and have an initial annual base salary of $650,000.\nGary Chase and Bill Carroll have been serving as interim co-CFOs of the carrier after Paul Jacobson resigned in November to join General Motors as CFO.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AIRI":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"GE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987193738,"gmtCreate":1667838577124,"gmtModify":1676537972304,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987193738","repostId":"2281612231","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2281612231","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1667835121,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2281612231?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-07 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"All You Need Are These 4 ETFs for a Well-Rounded Retirement Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281612231","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's simpler than you may imagine.","content":"<div>\n<p>Diversification is one of the key pillars of investing. It's another case of not wanting to put all your eggs in one basket. To achieve true diversification, you should be invested in companies from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/all-you-need-are-these-4-etfs-for-a-well-rounded-r/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>All You Need Are These 4 ETFs for a Well-Rounded Retirement Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAll You Need Are These 4 ETFs for a Well-Rounded Retirement Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-07 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/all-you-need-are-these-4-etfs-for-a-well-rounded-r/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Diversification is one of the key pillars of investing. It's another case of not wanting to put all your eggs in one basket. To achieve true diversification, you should be invested in companies from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/all-you-need-are-these-4-etfs-for-a-well-rounded-r/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","VO":"Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF","VXUS":"国际股票ETF-Vanguard","VTWO":"Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/all-you-need-are-these-4-etfs-for-a-well-rounded-r/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2281612231","content_text":"Diversification is one of the key pillars of investing. It's another case of not wanting to put all your eggs in one basket. To achieve true diversification, you should be invested in companies from different industries, sizes, and locations. Doing so by investing in individual companies can be time consuming and nerve wracking, but you don't have to go that route.With these four exchange-traded funds (ETFs), you can have a well-rounded retirement portfolio with just a few investments.The one stapleIf there were one \"must-have\" investment everyone needs in a stock portfolio, it would be an S&P 500 index fund. The S&P 500 tracks the 500 largest public U.S. companies and is the most followed index in the stock market. In fact, its performance is often used interchangeably with the overall stock market's performance.Since the S&P 500 only contains large-cap stocks (those with a market cap over $10 billion), it generally provides more stability than funds that contain small companies. You may not see the hypergrowth that you can with smaller-cap stocks, but you can take comfort in knowing it's well equipped to weather bad economic storms.An S&P 500 fund like the Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund ETF can be a great choice because of its low cost (0.03% expense ratio) and diversification. It's weighted by market cap, so the larger a company's market cap, the higher percentage of the fund it makes up. This may make it more top-heavy than other ETFs, but it still manages to cover all bases sector-wise.Don't forget the little playersSmall-cap stocks have a market cap between $250 million and $2 billion. Because of their relatively small size, smaller-cap stocks tend to have more room for growth than larger-cap stocks. With this growth potential, however, comes more proneness to volatility because these companies typically don't have as many financial resources at their disposal.Small-cap stocks, by nature, are riskier than larger-cap stocks, but you can offset some of this risk by investing in a small-cap index fund like the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 tracks the smallest 2,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 index, and it's largely considered the go-to benchmark for small-cap stocks -- similar to the S&P 500 for large-cap stocks.A Russell 2000 index fund such as the Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF is low cost (0.10% expense ratio) and has a mix of value and growth stocks. You don't want small-cap stocks to be the bulk of your portfolio, but you should want to be invested in some.A good balanceWith market caps between $2 billion and $10 billion, mid-cap stocks can often be the best of both worlds: large enough to have a good amount of financial resources, yet small enough to still have room for lots of growth. You may not get the huge upside you would with small-cap stocks, but you also don't get the risk. And you may not get the stability that comes with large-cap stocks, but there's generally more upside.The Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF is low cost (0.04% expense ratio) and contains 360 stocks covering all 11 major sectors. Its top 10 holdings only make up 7.23% of the fund, so it's well diversified and not too top heavy like some ETFs can be.Look outside the U.S.To have a truly diversified stock portfolio, you shouldn't only invest in American companies. By doing so, you're limiting yourself and missing out on some great companies across the globe. International markets are typically divided into two categories: developed and emerging.Developed markets are seen as having advanced economies, established industries, and solid infrastructure. Emerging markets may not have the advanced economics or infrastructure of developed markets, but they're seen as progressing that way, giving them more upside.Instead of spending time researching different regions and the companies within them, you can lean on an international ETF like the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF. This ETF contains 7,991 companies in the following regions:Europe: 38%Pacific: 26.9%North America: 7.8%Emerging Markets: 26.8%Middle East: 0.5%With the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF, you get exposure to companies in developed and emerging markets, as well as some household names like Samsung and Toyota. A good rule of thumb is to have around 20% of your stock portfolio in international stocks. You'll likely be glad you did.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VTWO":0.9,"VXUS":0.9,"VO":0.9,"VOO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077090150,"gmtCreate":1658421488370,"gmtModify":1676536156215,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lkz","listText":"Lkz","text":"Lkz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077090150","repostId":"2253464797","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2253464797","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1658414067,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2253464797?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 22:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Goldman Sachs Could Be the Best Bank Stock to Buy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2253464797","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"After the investment banking giant delivered better than expected quarterly results, its stock looks quite promising.","content":"<div>\n<p>We have now seen the second-quarter results from the largest banks in the United States, and it's tough to make the case that Goldman Sachs isn't an earnings season winner compared to its peers. Not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/21/why-goldman-sachs-could-be-the-best-bank-stock-to/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Goldman Sachs Could Be the Best Bank Stock to Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Goldman Sachs Could Be the Best Bank Stock to Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 22:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/21/why-goldman-sachs-could-be-the-best-bank-stock-to/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We have now seen the second-quarter results from the largest banks in the United States, and it's tough to make the case that Goldman Sachs isn't an earnings season winner compared to its peers. Not ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/21/why-goldman-sachs-could-be-the-best-bank-stock-to/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/21/why-goldman-sachs-could-be-the-best-bank-stock-to/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2253464797","content_text":"We have now seen the second-quarter results from the largest banks in the United States, and it's tough to make the case that Goldman Sachs isn't an earnings season winner compared to its peers. Not only did it handily beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, but the stock trades at an attractive valuation, and the financial institution is growing in certain ways that long-term investors should pay close attention to.While it could certainly face some near-term headwinds if a recession hits, Goldman Sachs looks like a compelling buying opportunity for investors who measure their returns in multiyear periods. Here's a rundown of how its business is doing, and why it looks like an especially attractive investment right now.Second-quarter results show the bank's resilienceTo be sure, there were some negative features in Goldman's second-quarter numbers. Most significantly, earnings fell by 48% year over year, mainly due to a worldwide slowdown in investment banking. Mergers and acquisitions activity, as well as equity and debt underwriting, has dried up due to the uncertain economic climate, and the numbers show just how bad it is. Goldman's investment banking fee revenue dropped by 41% compared to the prior-year period.However, it's important to realize that Goldman Sachs is built to make money no matter what the macro conditions are. While investment banking and wealth management generally fare poorly in turbulent markets, its massive trading operation tends to benefit from higher volatility. In fact, fixed income trading revenue increased by a staggering 55% year over year. In all, trading revenue came in at about $6.5 billion -- 32% higher than a year ago and more than half of the bank's total revenue.The surge in trading revenue allowed Goldman Sachs to beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines, showing just how resilient it can be in rough markets.Consumer banking remains an under-the-radar growth driverOne of the most overlooked parts of Goldman Sachs, and one of the most compelling reasons to own the stock, is its consumer banking business.The company is known as an investment banking giant, but it has been quietly building its consumer banking operations for several years now. It started with the Marcus savings and loan platform, and has since added credit card lending and a robo-advisory platform.In the second quarter, its consumer banking revenue grew by 67% year over year, fueled by strong credit card balance growth -- it's the bank behind the Apple and General Motors credit cards -- as well as higher deposit balances, which give the bank a low-cost source of funding.This could be just the beginning. Goldman Sachs' management has specifically mentioned things like offering checking accounts and more types of loans as possible future growth drivers. Given that consumer banking provides just over 5% of the institution's revenue today, there's room for years of rapid growth as it evolves into a more well-rounded bank.The price is rightGoldman Sachs stock is trading about 24% below its all-time high, which isn't quite as poorly as some of its peers have fared during the recent downturn. But at just 7.2 times trailing 12-month earnings and just over its book value, the bank looks like a compelling value. And even with its earnings expected to contract due to the current climate, Goldman still trades for less than 9.5 times forward earnings. The dividend yields an attractive 3.1% at the current share price, and the company has aggressively been buying back its shares. In short, Goldman Sachs looks like an extremely cheap bank stock considering its resilience and growth potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917685516,"gmtCreate":1665500117635,"gmtModify":1676537617353,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917685516","repostId":"1189371869","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189371869","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1665492847,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189371869?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-11 20:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Still A Mixed Picture, I'll Wait For $90","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189371869","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAmazon’s large price corrections, combined with the overall market turmoil, have triggered ma","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Amazon’s large price corrections, combined with the overall market turmoil, have triggered many Q&amp;A among our readers.</li><li>What I see is still a mixed picture with unfavorable odds.</li><li>Its profitability remains under pressure with the many near-term headwinds such as shipping congestion and inflation.</li><li>On the other hand, its valuation is too high. I see a $90 stock price possible in the near future given its historical volatility and its current elevated P/E.</li><li>Even among the FAAMG stocks, I see far better alternatives than Amazon currently.</li></ul><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become a frequent Q&amp;A topic among our readers and members of our marketplace service. In this article, I want to consolidate my responses and thoughts more cohesively. And I will do so by focusing on a macroscopic level, an approach motivated by two reasons.</p><p>First, AMZN is such a diversified company with so many complicated parts (retailer, AWS, hardware, et al). Each part merits an in-depth article and plenty of articles (including some of my own articles) have been written on the parts. So it makes sense to write an article at a macroscopic level with the hope of gaining a panoramic view at the cost of losing some of the details. This article will also complement the other pieces that other SA authors wrote about its segments.</p><p>Second, taking a macroscopic approach also helps to elucidate the core strategy and foundational concepts we use in our research and marketplace. So that you might be able to extend the methodology to other stocks of interest to yourself beyond AMZN. In particular, we will use the Fama French method in this article to analyze AMZN.</p><p>Under this context, the main conclusions of this article are twofold:</p><ul><li>Its profitability is less competitive than other peers. And I see inflation and supply chain pressures keep challenging its operating environment in the second half of 2022. In particular, the cost of fuel should lead operating expenses to increase during the remainder of the year. At the same time, the picture for overseas container costs remains mixed.</li><li>While at the same time, its valuation is still quite expensive, both in absolute terms and relative terms. Due to its current negative cash flow and negligible accounting EPS, valuation metrics in terms of bottom lines are not meaningful for AMZN. Its GAAP FW P/E is quoted at about 2531x. Even looking 2 years out, at its current price, its FY2 P/E of 50.75x is still too high when compared to the FAAMG group – which also has far better profitability metrics than AMZN.</li></ul><p>All told, I see a $90 stock price possible in the near future for AMZN given its historical volatility and its current elevated P/E. And that level, it would be much more reasonably valued and would be worthy of another close look.</p><p><b>Shipping situation remains mixed</b></p><p>AMZN faces a multitude of headwinds, ranging from high fuel cost, inflation, foreign exchange rates, et al. And all have been detailed in other SA articles. Here I will focus on one aspect not often mentioned: the mixed outlook of shipping costs.</p><p>On the positive side, the overseas shipping cost has gone down dramatically since its peak reached around September and October 2021 as you can see from the following chart (based on Drewry’s data). The shipping container costs peaked above $10k during that time. It has been continuously declining since then. The Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased by 8% alone last week to the current $3,688. Compare to its peak level about 1 year ago, the current price is almost 1/3 of the peak price. To further corroborate the picture, the second chart below shows the trade routes from Shanghai to other key port cities in the world (also based on Drewry’s data). As seen, the costs have also been declining, almost continuously, since 2021 September too. Take the trade routes between Shanghai and New York as an example. The costs have declined by almost ½ from around $15k a year ago to the current level of about $7k.</p><p>However, on the negative side, the impacts of China’s COVID lockdown may still take time to clear up, and new lockdowns are very possible given the recent resurgence in key Chinese cities. At the same time, gasoline prices remain near a historical high. According to YCharts data shown below, the national average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline is $3.91. It is about 23% below the peak of $5.1 reached recently, but still among the highest level since 1995 as seen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/256180d98a9dd64ca2d83ff439a9c5e0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Drewry’s data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b9d87580ac4907f0c4fbe68d328fc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Drewry’s data</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07ece3b4ce194cad87f1dbdef5474f88\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking Alpha data</p><p>AMZN profitability examined by Fama French</p><p>The factors above will keep their pressure on AMZN’s margins and profitability, which is not that impressive to start with as shown by a Fama French analysis below. The background of the Fama French has been provided in our earlier article. A brief recap is provided here for ease of reference (especially for readers who do not have access to our past articles).</p><blockquote><i>The method is named after Eugene Fama and Ken French. In 2013, Eugene Fama shared the Nobel Prize in economics with Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller for their work on asset prices. The Fama French method is considered a significant improvement over the CAPM method because it adjusted for outperformance tendency.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>The raw data used in this article were pulled from theDartmouth Tuck Business School database. We then analyzed the raw data using a simplified version of the Fama French method.</i></blockquote><blockquote><i>The following two charts show two of AMZN’s factors (operation profitability and valuation) compared to the general market.Past results have shown that these two factors have truly held up over all time periods.</i></blockquote><p>AMZN’s scores on these two factors are shown below. The first chart shows the OP factor of AMZN compared against all the other stocks in the market by percentile. As you can see, AMZN is not highly profitable by the OP metric (not a horrible one either). Its OP has oscillated the top 25% and the market median most of the time in recent years. Its current OP is 17.9%, actually slightly below the market median OP of 19.5%.</p><p>Another metric that we always like to check is the return on capital employed (“ROCE”), just in case for some businesses, the capital employed deviates from their equity substantially. And as seen, in AMZN’s case, there is a noticeable difference. Its ROCE (the thicker cyan line) has been consistently better than its OP, suggesting that its equity overrepresents its capital actually employed. But currently, its ROCE hovers around 16.4%, also below the market median as seen.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7442f7c4e4bfe121f4d75c2d27c3ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author</p><p>AMZN valuation examined by Fama French</p><p>Now move on to the valuation factor. As aforementioned, due to its current negative cash flow and negligible accounting EPS, valuation metrics in terms of bottom lines are not meaningful for AMZN (FY1 GAAPP/E is 2531x). Even its FY2P/E of 50.75x is still too high when compared to the FAAMG group: more than 4x higher than META, 3x higher than GOOG, and 2x higher than AAPL and NFLX.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a89e3a63b9eef0ea0761ce0b6cc2210\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Seeking alpha data</p><p>The next chart shows AMZN’sP/E factor is also much higher than the overall market. Again, here you need to ignore the large gyrations because of the large fluctuations in its accounting EPS over the years. However, currently, its 50+ FY2P/E would make it among the most expensively valued stocks on the market.</p><p>To provide some reference points, the top 5% percentileP/E in the market is currently 117x, and the top 10% percentile is 69.9x. So regardless of whichP/E you want to pick for AMZN, its current valuation is near the top 5% or the 10% percentile, a stark contrast to its below-average profitability.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9be743a0bfec85a1d5c881e8a1c8631\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author</p><p><b>Risks and final thoughts</b></p><p>To recap, despite large price corrections, I still see a mixed picture for AMZN under its current conditions. AMZN faces a multitude of headwinds, including shipping cost, inflation, foreign exchange rates, et al. I anticipate these headwinds to keep their pressure on its profitability, which is not super-competitive to start with. Its profitability, either measured by OP or ROCE, has oscillated between the top 25% and the market median most of the time. And they are currently slightly below the market median.</p><p>As such, under current conditions, we see better alternatives even within the FAAMG group. For example, the following two charts show the OP andP/E scores for Apple (AAPL). You can see the picture is completely the opposite when compared to AMZN. AAPL’s profitability, either measured by OP or ROCE, is far superior to the overall market as shown in the first chart. Yet, its valuation is only slightly above the market median.</p><p>All told, I see a $90 stock price possible for AMZN in the near future given its historical volatility and its current elevatedP/E. A $90 stock price would translate into a 40xP/E based on its FY2 EPS forecast. Still not cheap by any standard. But it is more reasonable and close to the top 25% percentile of the overall market. And a $90 level, it would be worthy of another close look given its growth potential (driven by its eCommerce, AWS, and healthcare initiatives for example).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8aa0f3e9e00bc90c9d1b923b0781f4e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55e77e81f4516106d39fd3f27a099af2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Source: Author</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Still A Mixed Picture, I'll Wait For $90</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Still A Mixed Picture, I'll Wait For $90\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-11 20:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545827-amazon-still-a-mixed-picture-ill-wait-for-90><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAmazon’s large price corrections, combined with the overall market turmoil, have triggered many Q&A among our readers.What I see is still a mixed picture with unfavorable odds.Its profitability...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545827-amazon-still-a-mixed-picture-ill-wait-for-90\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4545827-amazon-still-a-mixed-picture-ill-wait-for-90","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189371869","content_text":"SummaryAmazon’s large price corrections, combined with the overall market turmoil, have triggered many Q&A among our readers.What I see is still a mixed picture with unfavorable odds.Its profitability remains under pressure with the many near-term headwinds such as shipping congestion and inflation.On the other hand, its valuation is too high. I see a $90 stock price possible in the near future given its historical volatility and its current elevated P/E.Even among the FAAMG stocks, I see far better alternatives than Amazon currently.ThesisAmazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become a frequent Q&A topic among our readers and members of our marketplace service. In this article, I want to consolidate my responses and thoughts more cohesively. And I will do so by focusing on a macroscopic level, an approach motivated by two reasons.First, AMZN is such a diversified company with so many complicated parts (retailer, AWS, hardware, et al). Each part merits an in-depth article and plenty of articles (including some of my own articles) have been written on the parts. So it makes sense to write an article at a macroscopic level with the hope of gaining a panoramic view at the cost of losing some of the details. This article will also complement the other pieces that other SA authors wrote about its segments.Second, taking a macroscopic approach also helps to elucidate the core strategy and foundational concepts we use in our research and marketplace. So that you might be able to extend the methodology to other stocks of interest to yourself beyond AMZN. In particular, we will use the Fama French method in this article to analyze AMZN.Under this context, the main conclusions of this article are twofold:Its profitability is less competitive than other peers. And I see inflation and supply chain pressures keep challenging its operating environment in the second half of 2022. In particular, the cost of fuel should lead operating expenses to increase during the remainder of the year. At the same time, the picture for overseas container costs remains mixed.While at the same time, its valuation is still quite expensive, both in absolute terms and relative terms. Due to its current negative cash flow and negligible accounting EPS, valuation metrics in terms of bottom lines are not meaningful for AMZN. Its GAAP FW P/E is quoted at about 2531x. Even looking 2 years out, at its current price, its FY2 P/E of 50.75x is still too high when compared to the FAAMG group – which also has far better profitability metrics than AMZN.All told, I see a $90 stock price possible in the near future for AMZN given its historical volatility and its current elevated P/E. And that level, it would be much more reasonably valued and would be worthy of another close look.Shipping situation remains mixedAMZN faces a multitude of headwinds, ranging from high fuel cost, inflation, foreign exchange rates, et al. And all have been detailed in other SA articles. Here I will focus on one aspect not often mentioned: the mixed outlook of shipping costs.On the positive side, the overseas shipping cost has gone down dramatically since its peak reached around September and October 2021 as you can see from the following chart (based on Drewry’s data). The shipping container costs peaked above $10k during that time. It has been continuously declining since then. The Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased by 8% alone last week to the current $3,688. Compare to its peak level about 1 year ago, the current price is almost 1/3 of the peak price. To further corroborate the picture, the second chart below shows the trade routes from Shanghai to other key port cities in the world (also based on Drewry’s data). As seen, the costs have also been declining, almost continuously, since 2021 September too. Take the trade routes between Shanghai and New York as an example. The costs have declined by almost ½ from around $15k a year ago to the current level of about $7k.However, on the negative side, the impacts of China’s COVID lockdown may still take time to clear up, and new lockdowns are very possible given the recent resurgence in key Chinese cities. At the same time, gasoline prices remain near a historical high. According to YCharts data shown below, the national average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline is $3.91. It is about 23% below the peak of $5.1 reached recently, but still among the highest level since 1995 as seen.Source: Drewry’s dataSource: Drewry’s dataSource: Seeking Alpha dataAMZN profitability examined by Fama FrenchThe factors above will keep their pressure on AMZN’s margins and profitability, which is not that impressive to start with as shown by a Fama French analysis below. The background of the Fama French has been provided in our earlier article. A brief recap is provided here for ease of reference (especially for readers who do not have access to our past articles).The method is named after Eugene Fama and Ken French. In 2013, Eugene Fama shared the Nobel Prize in economics with Lars Peter Hansen and Robert Shiller for their work on asset prices. The Fama French method is considered a significant improvement over the CAPM method because it adjusted for outperformance tendency.The raw data used in this article were pulled from theDartmouth Tuck Business School database. We then analyzed the raw data using a simplified version of the Fama French method.The following two charts show two of AMZN’s factors (operation profitability and valuation) compared to the general market.Past results have shown that these two factors have truly held up over all time periods.AMZN’s scores on these two factors are shown below. The first chart shows the OP factor of AMZN compared against all the other stocks in the market by percentile. As you can see, AMZN is not highly profitable by the OP metric (not a horrible one either). Its OP has oscillated the top 25% and the market median most of the time in recent years. Its current OP is 17.9%, actually slightly below the market median OP of 19.5%.Another metric that we always like to check is the return on capital employed (“ROCE”), just in case for some businesses, the capital employed deviates from their equity substantially. And as seen, in AMZN’s case, there is a noticeable difference. Its ROCE (the thicker cyan line) has been consistently better than its OP, suggesting that its equity overrepresents its capital actually employed. But currently, its ROCE hovers around 16.4%, also below the market median as seen.Source: AuthorAMZN valuation examined by Fama FrenchNow move on to the valuation factor. As aforementioned, due to its current negative cash flow and negligible accounting EPS, valuation metrics in terms of bottom lines are not meaningful for AMZN (FY1 GAAPP/E is 2531x). Even its FY2P/E of 50.75x is still too high when compared to the FAAMG group: more than 4x higher than META, 3x higher than GOOG, and 2x higher than AAPL and NFLX.Source: Seeking alpha dataThe next chart shows AMZN’sP/E factor is also much higher than the overall market. Again, here you need to ignore the large gyrations because of the large fluctuations in its accounting EPS over the years. However, currently, its 50+ FY2P/E would make it among the most expensively valued stocks on the market.To provide some reference points, the top 5% percentileP/E in the market is currently 117x, and the top 10% percentile is 69.9x. So regardless of whichP/E you want to pick for AMZN, its current valuation is near the top 5% or the 10% percentile, a stark contrast to its below-average profitability.Source: AuthorRisks and final thoughtsTo recap, despite large price corrections, I still see a mixed picture for AMZN under its current conditions. AMZN faces a multitude of headwinds, including shipping cost, inflation, foreign exchange rates, et al. I anticipate these headwinds to keep their pressure on its profitability, which is not super-competitive to start with. Its profitability, either measured by OP or ROCE, has oscillated between the top 25% and the market median most of the time. And they are currently slightly below the market median.As such, under current conditions, we see better alternatives even within the FAAMG group. For example, the following two charts show the OP andP/E scores for Apple (AAPL). You can see the picture is completely the opposite when compared to AMZN. AAPL’s profitability, either measured by OP or ROCE, is far superior to the overall market as shown in the first chart. Yet, its valuation is only slightly above the market median.All told, I see a $90 stock price possible for AMZN in the near future given its historical volatility and its current elevatedP/E. A $90 stock price would translate into a 40xP/E based on its FY2 EPS forecast. Still not cheap by any standard. But it is more reasonable and close to the top 25% percentile of the overall market. And a $90 level, it would be worthy of another close look given its growth potential (driven by its eCommerce, AWS, and healthcare initiatives for example).Source: AuthorSource: Author","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911958811,"gmtCreate":1664122088733,"gmtModify":1676537393359,"author":{"id":"3582706432505971","authorId":"3582706432505971","name":"Edrawdet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa99f8231bc88d98f4cf101ac756955b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582706432505971","idStr":"3582706432505971"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911958811","repostId":"2269833450","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}