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爱丽丝郑

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2024-06-23

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

2021-06-25

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2021-06-23

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Regulatory impact on Bitcoin mining rig market: Bitmain suspends spot mining rig sales

2021-06-22

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Behind the "most expensive game card in history" lies a major corruption case.

2021-06-22

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Value stocks are making a comeback! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend.

2021-06-22

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Missfresh's pricing range is $13-16 per ADS, with existing shareholders continuing to increase their investments.

2021-06-18

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The day after the Federal Reserve anticipated an earlier rate hike, long-term US Treasury yields plummeted. Why?

2021-06-14

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Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously

2021-05-20

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2021-05-19

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Haidilao has fallen into a deep red sea; simply opening stores won't help it recover.

2021-05-19

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2021-05-14

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Real estate tycoons' achievements: Money is hard to make, debts are hard to repay.

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c9de0261dd57f972a29afdfd2e42481","width":"902","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319816032804888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122355577,"gmtCreate":1624599611599,"gmtModify":1703841432341,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/122355577","repostId":"1147716343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123761054,"gmtCreate":1624439602078,"gmtModify":1703836727655,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123761054","repostId":"1129009844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129009844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624438364,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129009844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 16:52","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Regulatory impact on Bitcoin mining rig market: Bitmain suspends spot mining rig sales","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129009844","media":"界面新闻","summary":"加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。","content":"<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei: The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is beginning to be affected by regulations. On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of used machines into the market, it would temporarily suspend the sale of spot machines to alleviate customer shipment pressure. An insider at Bitmain told Jiemian News, \"That's the general direction, but we haven't received any specific sales details yet.\" Meanwhile, reports indicate that Bitmain has announced a complete overseas relocation, with some middle and senior management employees in particular moving overseas. Bitmain stated that it was not convenient to disclose the information to the public at this time. Bitmain is currently one of the world's largest Bitcoin mining rig manufacturers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Regulatory impact on Bitcoin mining rig market: Bitmain suspends spot mining rig sales</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRegulatory impact on Bitcoin mining rig market: Bitmain suspends spot mining rig sales\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 16:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei: The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is beginning to be affected by regulations. On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of used machines into the market, it would temporarily suspend the sale of spot machines to alleviate customer shipment pressure. An insider at Bitmain told Jiemian News, \"That's the general direction, but we haven't received any specific sales details yet.\" Meanwhile, reports indicate that Bitmain has announced a complete overseas relocation, with some middle and senior management employees in particular moving overseas. Bitmain stated that it was not convenient to disclose the information to the public at this time. Bitmain is currently one of the world's largest Bitcoin mining rig manufacturers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27dbfbd85956a77609a6a352c6752bcc","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129009844","content_text":"记者／司林威\n加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。\n6月23日，比特大陆对加密货币矿工表示，由于近期大量二手机器涌入市场，为缓解客户出货压力，暂时停售现货机器。\n比特大陆内部人士向界面新闻表示：“大方向是这样，但具体销售细节暂未接到通知。”\n同时，有消息称比特大陆已宣布全面向海外转移，特别是部分中高层员工正向海外转移。比特大陆方表示暂不方便对外透露。\n比特大陆是目前全球最大的比特币矿机厂商之一，近年来在AI领域也有大量布局。在6月19日于成都举行的行业交流会上，比特大陆发布了其新品，但并非为比特币专业矿机。会上比特大陆还打出“抱团取暖，拒绝恶性竞争”的标语。现场参会的矿工透露，海外挖矿业务成了本次交流会的主要议题。\n为何比特大陆要暂停现货矿机销售？本质还是受到国内监管冲击。\n随着内蒙古、新疆、四川、青海、云南等地陆续开始叫停比特币挖矿和清退各类矿场，除一部分矿机转移至中亚和海外，大量被清退的矿机被迫关机后流入二手矿机市场，直接冲击了原有的矿机市场。\n监管政策落地后，界面新闻记者获悉多位矿工已开始售卖矿机。有矿业公司已开始清退客户矿机，并开始清仓甩卖相关矿机。\n以矿机市场销售人员近几日的报价为例，比特大陆旗下蚂蚁S19系列某款矿机6月15日报价为4万元，6月23日报价已降至3万元关口。且据矿工透露，目前市场价格处于恐慌中的低点，有价无市，愿意接手的人并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129240951,"gmtCreate":1624375058273,"gmtModify":1703834928936,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129240951","repostId":"1191907311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191907311","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624372217,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191907311?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Behind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191907311","media":"雷达财经","summary":"一张纪念卡牌能有多贵？答案是8700万元。","content":"<p>By Zhang Kaijing</p><p>How expensive can a commemorative card be? The answer is 87 million yuan.</p><p>On June 21, 2021, the limited-edition Yu-Gi-Oh! card \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" exceeded 87 million yuan in just half an hour after its auction began on Alibaba Auction. Platform data shows that it went through 2,105 rounds of bidding, and more than 2.32 million people watched the grand auction. Ultimately, the auction was suspended due to possible malicious speculation and bidding. A day later, another personal item belonging to the same owner—a USB flash drive—was also auctioned for a record-breaking price of nearly 40,000 yuan, and the auction was also forcibly suspended.</p><p>Yan Chuang, a lawyer at Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, told Radar Finance that if a participant in a judicial auction is found to have engaged in malicious bidding, the people's court can impose fines or detention depending on the severity of the circumstances, and if a crime is constituted, criminal liability can be pursued in accordance with the law. If the last person to complete the transaction fails to pay on time and the auction is re-auctioned, they should also bear the resulting price difference and cost losses. However, based on the current situation, due to the cancellation of the auction, the final bidder will not be held accountable.</p><p>Radar Finance noted that some people had previously been punished for making malicious bids and regretting their bids. In addition, Alibaba Auction has also warned of the risk of regretting the auction.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that behind this auction lies a major corruption case. In November 2020, Zhang Yujie, an employee of a company in Chuzhou, was sentenced to life imprisonment on suspicion of embezzlement and had all his personal property confiscated. It's worth mentioning that the \"luxury goods\" he purchased with the 69.9325 million yuan he embezzled included, in addition to the \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" Yu-Gi-Oh! pure gold card, a Rolex watch, a 1982 Lafite...</p><p><b>Yu-Gi-Oh! cards started at 80 yuan and fetched a record-breaking 87 million yuan.</b></p><p>The Yu-Gi-Oh! \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" being auctioned this time is a limited edition card made of approximately 11g of 24K gold, making it a top-tier collectible among collectible cards.</p><p>Yu-Gi-Oh! is an anime that aired in Japan after 2000, focusing on card monster duels and seven ancient artifacts. Its card game is the world's best-selling collectible card game developed by KONAMI and certified by Guinness World Records. Currently, the cumulative sales of this series of cards have exceeded 25.17 billion.</p><p>According to media reports, the card series is limited to 500 sets, each with a unique collection number and certificate printed with \"No.1-500\". The official price is 200,000 yen (about 12,000 yuan), and the market price is around 200,000-300,000 yuan.</p><p>Radar Finance noted that this price was not particularly outstanding in the history of Yu-Gi-Oh! cards. Previously, a Japanese netizen posted a photo of a \"Blue-Eyed Ultimate Dragon\" priced at 45 million yen. It is said to be the championship prize of the 2001 Asian Championships and is the only one of its kind in the world. Some people even listed the \"Chaos Warrior\" prize card from an official competition in 2000 on an online store, priced at 999.8 million yen, which is equivalent to over 58 million RMB today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624224470d5695709484e2e4c7d7420\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, after fetching a record-breaking 87 million yuan at auction, this \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" card has undoubtedly broken the previous record and become the highest-priced Yu-Gi-Oh card auctioned in the world.</p><p>According to data from Alibaba Auction, a total of 18,104 people registered for the auction, 76,716 people set reminders, and more than 2.3 million views. According to a content creator who participated in the auction, the starting price was only 80 yuan because the original owner entrusted a friend to purchase it from Japan, but then threw away the packaging box and certificate when going through customs to avoid taxes.</p><p>At 4:00 PM on June 21, the card auction officially began. As of 4:32:34 PM, 2,105 people had bid. Before the auction was halted, the last netizen to bid was Y8745, with a bid of 87,326,098 yuan.</p><p>According to statistics compiled by netizens, Y8745 was bid on three times. 25 minutes after the auction began, the bid amounts were 52156075, 54106076, and finally 87326098. The top three bidders bid 47, 33, and 25 times, respectively.</p><p><b>After the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh! card in history, the most expensive USB flash drive in history has appeared.</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that on June 22, another property under the name of the original owner of \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\"—a SanDisk USB drive—was also suspended from auction due to \"a serious discrepancy between the value of the auction item and the actual auction price, which may indicate malicious price gouging.\"</p><p>In an announcement regarding a USB flash drive owned by the judgment debtor, the Chuzhou Intermediate People's Court of Anhui Province stated that the starting bid for the USB flash drive was 40 yuan, the appraised price was 50 yuan, the service life was unknown, it had not been used for a long time, there were no accessories or instructions, and it was unknown whether it could be used normally.</p><p>However, by the end of June 21, the bidding price for the USB drive had risen to 1,512 yuan. As of 3:21:45 PM on June 22, before the auction was suspended, the auction price of the USB drive reached 39,810 yuan, with a total of 1,186 bids and attracting more than 290,000 views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/668ef66d7a88165ee2e260cc041e0701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"This must be the most expensive USB drive in history, right?\" one netizen exclaimed. According to the images displayed, the USB flash drive has only 4GB of memory. Radar Finance's search revealed that the most expensive USB flash drive on the SanDisk flagship store is currently priced at 1499 yuan, with 1TB of memory, which is more than 250 times the price of the auctioned USB flash drive. However, there are also rumors that the reason the USB drive is being snapped up is because it contains the key to Bitcoin.</p><p>\"There have been two consecutive instances of malicious price gouging for a series of items in the same case, and the auction of other items has been terminated.\" According to the platform's announcement, due to the exorbitant prices of Yu-Gi-Oh! cards and USB flash drives in the past two days, the auction of other items of the holder has been suspended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b505dfca4e980f39ff75f7eff2e359\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Lawyer: Malicious bidding must bear serious consequences</b></p><p>\"The deposit is not high, but netizens think it's fun and don't understand the seriousness of judicial auctions,\" said lawyer Yan Chuang.</p><p>According to Article 111 of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China and Article 187 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China, the people's court may impose fines or detain buyers who maliciously raise prices in judicial online auctions and disrupt the order of judicial auctions. If a crime is constituted, criminal liability shall be pursued in accordance with the law.</p><p>Yan Chuang explained that malicious bidding refers to the behavior of individuals participating in judicial auctions who, without genuine intention to purchase, register false personal information, collude with the person subject to enforcement, or knowingly lack the ability to pay, still bid against others and maliciously raise prices to prevent others from bidding normally, resulting in failed auctions and other behaviors that hinder or interfere with court enforcement and judicial auction activities.</p><p>In addition, relevant laws stipulate that even if the buyer regrets the purchase after a judicial online auction, the deposit paid by the buyer will not be refunded. If the buyer fails to pay the price within the time limit, the people's court may order a re-auction. If the reauction price is lower than the original auction price, the resulting price difference, cost losses, etc., shall also be borne by the original buyer.</p><p>\"The last transaction is the one with the highest price. If they fail to pay on time and the auction is re-auctioned, they will have to bear the resulting price difference and cost losses,\" Yan Chuang pointed out.</p><p>However, Yan Chuang also admitted that the auction has been canceled, and the last bidder does not need to bear the corresponding responsibility. \"The public still needs to raise their legal awareness.\"</p><p>Radar Finance noted that in Alibaba's auction notice, a bidder had previously breached the contract and was judicially detained for 15 days and fined 100,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed663f33627d1f4b7d6b37576e2b854d\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7d1fe16c72c8e3516881f5da185280\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The origin of the major corruption case five years ago</b></p><p>Behind the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh! cards and USB flash drives auctioned this time lies a major corruption case.</p><p>According to the indictment released by the Chuzhou Municipal People's Procuratorate of Anhui Province, Zhang Yujie, the original holder of the \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" Yu-Gi-Oh! pure gold card, was born in 1995. Between 2016 and April 2019, taking advantage of his position in the custody of existing housing funds at a company in Chuzhou City, he embezzled a total of 69.9325 million yuan of existing housing custody funds multiple times by directly embezzling the custody funds without recording them in the accounts and falsifying the facts of receipt.</p><p>Specifically, Zhang Yujie embezzled escrow funds paid by 399 homebuyers. He also purchased two properties in Chuzhou City in the name of his then-girlfriend Zhou Moumou. Without paying the purchase price, he issued false escrow certificates for existing housing transaction funds in Chuzhou City and embezzled 2.6 million yuan and 3.9 million yuan of escrow funds based on the false escrow certificates.</p><p>According to Alibaba's auction announcement, Zhang Yujie used \"illicit funds\" to purchase assets including Hainan huanghuali wooden bracelets, eight Rolex, GUCCI, and OMEGA watches, three DIOR glasses, 10 bottles of highly collectible red wine, including Château Lafite 1982 dry red wine, and commemorative banknotes. However, what best highlights his personality are his electronic products. Including BRIKK gold-plated and diamond-encrusted game controllers, a 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console, a limited edition PS4 Pro console for God of War 4, 3 Switch consoles, 4 Alien computers, a large number of Sony and beats headphones, 4 Apple tablets, 2 laptops, 11 mobile phones...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc5320757fdea9e3866b27dbf3d2eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Public information shows that the gold-plated and diamond-encrusted PS4 controller deluxe edition is priced at approximately $14,000, the 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at 3,799 yuan, and the God of War 4 limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at approximately $400.</p><p>In March 2020, Zhang Yujie was detained by the Tianchang Municipal Supervisory Commission on suspicion of embezzlement. Two months later, he was arrested by the Tianchang Municipal Public Security Bureau. In November of the same year, Zhang Yujie was sentenced to life imprisonment and all of his personal property was confiscated.</p>","source":"lsy1575359225748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雷达财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 22:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Zhang Kaijing</p><p>How expensive can a commemorative card be? The answer is 87 million yuan.</p><p>On June 21, 2021, the limited-edition Yu-Gi-Oh! card \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" exceeded 87 million yuan in just half an hour after its auction began on Alibaba Auction. Platform data shows that it went through 2,105 rounds of bidding, and more than 2.32 million people watched the grand auction. Ultimately, the auction was suspended due to possible malicious speculation and bidding. A day later, another personal item belonging to the same owner—a USB flash drive—was also auctioned for a record-breaking price of nearly 40,000 yuan, and the auction was also forcibly suspended.</p><p>Yan Chuang, a lawyer at Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, told Radar Finance that if a participant in a judicial auction is found to have engaged in malicious bidding, the people's court can impose fines or detention depending on the severity of the circumstances, and if a crime is constituted, criminal liability can be pursued in accordance with the law. If the last person to complete the transaction fails to pay on time and the auction is re-auctioned, they should also bear the resulting price difference and cost losses. However, based on the current situation, due to the cancellation of the auction, the final bidder will not be held accountable.</p><p>Radar Finance noted that some people had previously been punished for making malicious bids and regretting their bids. In addition, Alibaba Auction has also warned of the risk of regretting the auction.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that behind this auction lies a major corruption case. In November 2020, Zhang Yujie, an employee of a company in Chuzhou, was sentenced to life imprisonment on suspicion of embezzlement and had all his personal property confiscated. It's worth mentioning that the \"luxury goods\" he purchased with the 69.9325 million yuan he embezzled included, in addition to the \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" Yu-Gi-Oh! pure gold card, a Rolex watch, a 1982 Lafite...</p><p><b>Yu-Gi-Oh! cards started at 80 yuan and fetched a record-breaking 87 million yuan.</b></p><p>The Yu-Gi-Oh! \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" being auctioned this time is a limited edition card made of approximately 11g of 24K gold, making it a top-tier collectible among collectible cards.</p><p>Yu-Gi-Oh! is an anime that aired in Japan after 2000, focusing on card monster duels and seven ancient artifacts. Its card game is the world's best-selling collectible card game developed by KONAMI and certified by Guinness World Records. Currently, the cumulative sales of this series of cards have exceeded 25.17 billion.</p><p>According to media reports, the card series is limited to 500 sets, each with a unique collection number and certificate printed with \"No.1-500\". The official price is 200,000 yen (about 12,000 yuan), and the market price is around 200,000-300,000 yuan.</p><p>Radar Finance noted that this price was not particularly outstanding in the history of Yu-Gi-Oh! cards. Previously, a Japanese netizen posted a photo of a \"Blue-Eyed Ultimate Dragon\" priced at 45 million yen. It is said to be the championship prize of the 2001 Asian Championships and is the only one of its kind in the world. Some people even listed the \"Chaos Warrior\" prize card from an official competition in 2000 on an online store, priced at 999.8 million yen, which is equivalent to over 58 million RMB today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624224470d5695709484e2e4c7d7420\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, after fetching a record-breaking 87 million yuan at auction, this \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" card has undoubtedly broken the previous record and become the highest-priced Yu-Gi-Oh card auctioned in the world.</p><p>According to data from Alibaba Auction, a total of 18,104 people registered for the auction, 76,716 people set reminders, and more than 2.3 million views. According to a content creator who participated in the auction, the starting price was only 80 yuan because the original owner entrusted a friend to purchase it from Japan, but then threw away the packaging box and certificate when going through customs to avoid taxes.</p><p>At 4:00 PM on June 21, the card auction officially began. As of 4:32:34 PM, 2,105 people had bid. Before the auction was halted, the last netizen to bid was Y8745, with a bid of 87,326,098 yuan.</p><p>According to statistics compiled by netizens, Y8745 was bid on three times. 25 minutes after the auction began, the bid amounts were 52156075, 54106076, and finally 87326098. The top three bidders bid 47, 33, and 25 times, respectively.</p><p><b>After the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh! card in history, the most expensive USB flash drive in history has appeared.</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that on June 22, another property under the name of the original owner of \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\"—a SanDisk USB drive—was also suspended from auction due to \"a serious discrepancy between the value of the auction item and the actual auction price, which may indicate malicious price gouging.\"</p><p>In an announcement regarding a USB flash drive owned by the judgment debtor, the Chuzhou Intermediate People's Court of Anhui Province stated that the starting bid for the USB flash drive was 40 yuan, the appraised price was 50 yuan, the service life was unknown, it had not been used for a long time, there were no accessories or instructions, and it was unknown whether it could be used normally.</p><p>However, by the end of June 21, the bidding price for the USB drive had risen to 1,512 yuan. As of 3:21:45 PM on June 22, before the auction was suspended, the auction price of the USB drive reached 39,810 yuan, with a total of 1,186 bids and attracting more than 290,000 views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/668ef66d7a88165ee2e260cc041e0701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"This must be the most expensive USB drive in history, right?\" one netizen exclaimed. According to the images displayed, the USB flash drive has only 4GB of memory. Radar Finance's search revealed that the most expensive USB flash drive on the SanDisk flagship store is currently priced at 1499 yuan, with 1TB of memory, which is more than 250 times the price of the auctioned USB flash drive. However, there are also rumors that the reason the USB drive is being snapped up is because it contains the key to Bitcoin.</p><p>\"There have been two consecutive instances of malicious price gouging for a series of items in the same case, and the auction of other items has been terminated.\" According to the platform's announcement, due to the exorbitant prices of Yu-Gi-Oh! cards and USB flash drives in the past two days, the auction of other items of the holder has been suspended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b505dfca4e980f39ff75f7eff2e359\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Lawyer: Malicious bidding must bear serious consequences</b></p><p>\"The deposit is not high, but netizens think it's fun and don't understand the seriousness of judicial auctions,\" said lawyer Yan Chuang.</p><p>According to Article 111 of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China and Article 187 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China, the people's court may impose fines or detain buyers who maliciously raise prices in judicial online auctions and disrupt the order of judicial auctions. If a crime is constituted, criminal liability shall be pursued in accordance with the law.</p><p>Yan Chuang explained that malicious bidding refers to the behavior of individuals participating in judicial auctions who, without genuine intention to purchase, register false personal information, collude with the person subject to enforcement, or knowingly lack the ability to pay, still bid against others and maliciously raise prices to prevent others from bidding normally, resulting in failed auctions and other behaviors that hinder or interfere with court enforcement and judicial auction activities.</p><p>In addition, relevant laws stipulate that even if the buyer regrets the purchase after a judicial online auction, the deposit paid by the buyer will not be refunded. If the buyer fails to pay the price within the time limit, the people's court may order a re-auction. If the reauction price is lower than the original auction price, the resulting price difference, cost losses, etc., shall also be borne by the original buyer.</p><p>\"The last transaction is the one with the highest price. If they fail to pay on time and the auction is re-auctioned, they will have to bear the resulting price difference and cost losses,\" Yan Chuang pointed out.</p><p>However, Yan Chuang also admitted that the auction has been canceled, and the last bidder does not need to bear the corresponding responsibility. \"The public still needs to raise their legal awareness.\"</p><p>Radar Finance noted that in Alibaba's auction notice, a bidder had previously breached the contract and was judicially detained for 15 days and fined 100,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed663f33627d1f4b7d6b37576e2b854d\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7d1fe16c72c8e3516881f5da185280\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The origin of the major corruption case five years ago</b></p><p>Behind the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh! cards and USB flash drives auctioned this time lies a major corruption case.</p><p>According to the indictment released by the Chuzhou Municipal People's Procuratorate of Anhui Province, Zhang Yujie, the original holder of the \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" Yu-Gi-Oh! pure gold card, was born in 1995. Between 2016 and April 2019, taking advantage of his position in the custody of existing housing funds at a company in Chuzhou City, he embezzled a total of 69.9325 million yuan of existing housing custody funds multiple times by directly embezzling the custody funds without recording them in the accounts and falsifying the facts of receipt.</p><p>Specifically, Zhang Yujie embezzled escrow funds paid by 399 homebuyers. He also purchased two properties in Chuzhou City in the name of his then-girlfriend Zhou Moumou. Without paying the purchase price, he issued false escrow certificates for existing housing transaction funds in Chuzhou City and embezzled 2.6 million yuan and 3.9 million yuan of escrow funds based on the false escrow certificates.</p><p>According to Alibaba's auction announcement, Zhang Yujie used \"illicit funds\" to purchase assets including Hainan huanghuali wooden bracelets, eight Rolex, GUCCI, and OMEGA watches, three DIOR glasses, 10 bottles of highly collectible red wine, including Château Lafite 1982 dry red wine, and commemorative banknotes. However, what best highlights his personality are his electronic products. Including BRIKK gold-plated and diamond-encrusted game controllers, a 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console, a limited edition PS4 Pro console for God of War 4, 3 Switch consoles, 4 Alien computers, a large number of Sony and beats headphones, 4 Apple tablets, 2 laptops, 11 mobile phones...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc5320757fdea9e3866b27dbf3d2eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Public information shows that the gold-plated and diamond-encrusted PS4 controller deluxe edition is priced at approximately $14,000, the 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at 3,799 yuan, and the God of War 4 limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at approximately $400.</p><p>In March 2020, Zhang Yujie was detained by the Tianchang Municipal Supervisory Commission on suspicion of embezzlement. Two months later, he was arrested by the Tianchang Municipal Public Security Bureau. In November of the same year, Zhang Yujie was sentenced to life imprisonment and all of his personal property was confiscated.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3GLEKF7fJ7gkRSxVxq2zw\">雷达财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e584cf3e83856adee20fc26b5873221","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3GLEKF7fJ7gkRSxVxq2zw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191907311","content_text":"文|张凯旌\n一张纪念卡牌能有多贵？答案是8700万元。\n2021年6月21日，游戏王限量卡牌“青眼白龙”在阿里拍卖开拍仅半小时后，竞买价格就突破了8700万元。平台数据显示，其共经历2105轮竞买，有超过232万人围观了此次拍卖会的盛况。最终，因可能存在恶意炒作与竞价行为，本场拍卖被中止。一天后，相同持有人的另一私人物品——U盘也被拍出近4万元的天价，而这场拍卖同样遭到了强制中止。\n北京市中闻律师事务所律师闫创对雷达财经表示，若参与司法拍卖的人员被认定属于恶意竞拍，人民法院可以根据情节严重程度予以罚款、拘留，构成犯罪的还可以依法追究刑事责任。最后一个成交的人如果因逾期不支付款项，导致重新拍卖，造成的差价及费用损失也应由他来承担。不过根据目前的情况，因拍卖取消，最后出价的人不用被追究责任。\n雷达财经注意到，此前曾有人为恶意出价并悔拍的行为遭处罚。此外，阿里拍卖也曾提示过悔拍风险。\n值得一提的是，此次拍卖背后，还隐藏着一个贪腐大案。2020年11月，滁州某公司员工张雨杰因涉嫌贪污罪被判处无期徒刑，没收个人全部财产。值得一提的是，他用贪污得来的6993.25万元资金所购买的“奢侈品”，除了“青眼白龙”游戏王纯金卡牌，还包括劳力士手表、82年拉菲……\n游戏王卡牌80元起拍，拍出8700万天价\n此次拍卖的游戏王“青眼白龙”属于限量卡牌，用料为约11g的24K金，是集换式卡牌中的王者级藏品。\n游戏王是2000年后在日本播出的一部以卡牌怪兽决斗和七件千年神器为主线的动漫，而其卡片游戏则是由KONAMI研发，吉尼斯世界纪录认证的全世界销量最高的集换式卡牌游戏。目前，该系列卡牌累计发售已突破251亿7000万张。\n据媒体报道，该卡牌所属系列限量发售500套，每一张都有独特的印有“No.1-500”的收藏编号和证书，官方定价为20万日元（约合1.2万元人民币），市场价在20-30万元左右。\n雷达财经注意到，这个价格在游戏王的卡牌历史中本不算出众。此前有日本网友晒出一张售价高达4500万日元的“青眼究极龙”，据说是2001年亚洲锦标赛的冠军奖品，全世界仅此一张；还有人将2000年某次官方大赛的奖品卡“混沌战士”上架至网络商城，标价9.998亿日元，放在现在约合超5800万元人民币。\n\n但是在拍出8700万元的天价后，这张“青眼白龙”无疑已经打破此前的纪录，成为了全世界拍卖价格最高的游戏王卡牌。\n从阿里拍卖的数据来看，此次拍卖共有18104人报名，76716人设置提醒，超过230万次围观。之所以起拍价仅为80元，根据一位参与拍卖的up主所述，是因为原持有人委托友人从日本购入后，过海关时为了避税把包装盒及证书都扔了。\n6月21日16时，该卡牌正式开始拍卖，截至16时32分34秒，已有2105人出价拍卖，在拍卖被叫停前，最后一名出价的网友竞买号为Y8745，出价8732.6098万元。\n有网友统计发现，Y8745共出价3次，进场时间在开始拍卖25分钟后，出价金额分别是52156075、54106076和最后的87326098。而竞拍次数排名前三位的竞拍者则拍了47、33和25次。\n史上最贵游戏王卡牌后又现史上最贵U盘\n值得一提的是，6月22日，“青眼白龙”原持有人名下的另一项财产——一个SanDisk U盘也因“拍品价值与实际竞拍价格严重不符，可能存在恶意抬价的行为”被中止拍卖。\n安徽省滁州市中级人民法院在关于被执行人U盘1个的公告中称，该U盘起拍价为40元，评估价为50元，使用年限不明，长久未使用，无任何配件及说明书，能否正常使用不详。\n但6月21日结束时，该U盘的竞买价格已升至1512元。而截至6月22日15时21分45秒，即拍卖中止前，该U盘的拍卖价格更是高达39810元，共有1186次竞买，总计吸引了超29万次围观。\n\n“这应该是史上最贵U盘了吧？”有网友感叹。根据展示出的图片，该U盘内存仅4GB，雷达财经搜索发现，目前电商平台闪迪旗舰店中，最贵的U盘售价为1499元，内存1TB，是拍卖U盘的超250倍。但也有传言称，该U盘遭疯抢的原因系其中存着比特币的秘钥。\n“同一案件的系列拍品，已经连续两次出现恶意抬价行为，对其他拍品终止拍卖。”根据平台公告，受近两日天价游戏王卡牌和U盘的影响，已中止对该持有人其他拍品的拍卖活动。\n\n律师：恶意竞拍需承担严重后果\n“保证金不高，网民们就觉得好玩，对于司法拍卖的严肃性并不了解。”律师闫创称。\n根据《中华人民共和国民事诉讼法》第一百一十一条及《最高人民法院关于适用〈中华人民共和国民事诉讼法〉的解释》第一百八十七条之规定，对于在司法网拍中恶意抬价，扰乱司法拍卖秩序的买受人，人民法院可以对其罚款、拘留，构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。\n闫创解释称，恶意竞拍，就是参与司法拍卖的人员，没有真实购买意愿，登记虚假个人信息、或者与被执行人串通或明知自己无支付能力，仍与他人竞价、恶意抬价，阻止他人正常竞买，导致流拍等各种妨碍、干扰法院执行和司法拍卖活动的行为。\n除此之外，相关法律还规定，司法网拍成交后，买受人即使悔拍，其所交纳的保证金也不予退还。如果买受人逾期未支付价款，人民法院可以裁定重新拍卖。重新拍卖的价款若低于原拍卖价款，所造成的差价、费用损失等，亦由原买受人承担。\n“最后一个成交的，就是最高价成交，如果其逾期不支付款项，导致重新拍卖的话，其要承担所造成的差价及费用损失。”闫创指出。\n不过闫创也坦言，目前拍卖已被取消，最后一个出价的竞买人也就无需承担相应责任。“民众还是需要提高法律意识。”\n雷达财经注意到，阿里拍卖的提示中，此前有竞拍人毁约，被司法拘留15日，并罚款10万元。\n\n\n缘起五年前贪污大案\n此次拍卖的最贵游戏王卡牌、最贵U盘背后，隐藏着一个贪腐大案。\n安徽省滁州市人民检察院公示的起诉书显示，“青眼白龙”游戏王纯金卡牌的原持有者张雨杰出生于1995年，在2016年至2019年4月期间，借自己在滁州市某公司存量房资金托管岗位工作的契机，采取收取托管资金不入账直接侵吞、伪造收款事实等方式，多次贪污存量房托管资金计6993.25万元。\n具体而言，张雨杰先后侵吞了399户买房人缴纳的托管资金，还曾以时任女友周某某的名义购买了位于滁州市的两套房产，在未缴纳购房款的情况下，开具虚假的滁州市存量房交易资金托管凭证，根据虚假托管凭证侵吞托管资金260万元、390万元。\n根据阿里拍卖竞买公告，张雨杰用“赃款”购买的财产包括海南黄花梨木质手串、劳力士、GUCCI、OMEGA共计8块手表、3支DIOR眼镜、拉菲酒庄干红葡萄酒1982等10瓶极具收藏价值的红葡萄酒、纪念钞等，但最能突出其个性的还是一干电子产品。包括BRIKK镀金镶钻游戏手柄、五亿限定版PS4 Pro主机、《战神4》限定版PS4 Pro主机，3台Switch主机、4台外星人电脑、大量索尼、beats的耳机和苹果的4台平板电脑、2台笔记本电脑、11部手机……\n\n公开信息显示，镀金镶钻PS4手柄豪华版售价约14000美元，五亿限定版PS4 Pro主机售价3799元，《战神4》限定版PS4 Pro主机售价约400美元。\n2020年3月，张雨杰因涉嫌贪污罪被天长市监察委员会留置，两个月后，其被天长市公安局执行逮捕。同年11月，张雨杰被判处无期徒刑，没收个人全部财产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129255294,"gmtCreate":1624374952718,"gmtModify":1703834925157,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you so much&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment, thank you so much&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment, thank you so much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129255294","repostId":"1196342132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196342132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美国最大的独立第三方研究机构之一，成立20年，专为美股、港股、A股个人投资者提供前沿内容。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"弹道财经","id":"1031387410","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c"},"pubTimestamp":1624362521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196342132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Value stocks are making a comeback! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196342132","media":"弹道财经","summary":"随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。","content":"<p>By Dr. David Eifrig</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can now seize a type of trading opportunity because it aligns with the philosophies of both leaders!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS. Soros, who would you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trending stocks; are the two bigwigs leading the same path?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views expressed in this article are based on publicly available market information and historical data and do not constitute direct investment advice. They are for communication purposes only. Feel free to leave a comment to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS. Soros, who would you side with?</b></p><p>Often, investors entering the market face a choice: should they side with Buffett or Soros? They represent two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The successes of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros are both legendary. Whether it's Soros's $1 billion profit during the \"takedown of the Bank of England\" or Buffett's 1550% return on Coca-Cola stock, both are remarkable achievements that are difficult for many to replicate.</p><p>However, if investors intend to imitate the investment strategies of these two legendary figures, they can usually only choose one big shot to follow. Because these two investment gurus have completely opposite views on volatility and risk. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works—his return on investment is far superior to that of most speculators.</p><p>Warren Buffett famously said, \"You'll only know who's swimming naked when the tide goes out.\"</p><p>In other words, the bull market provided cover for excessive risk betting. However, if investors have been taking risks without doing their due diligence or adequately preparing for a decline, then they will be the first to be affected when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>In contrast to Buffett, Soros prefers to jump into strong market trends.</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, which is what we often call chasing highs and selling lows), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble forming, I will quickly buy to add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a danger sign, but rather an opportunity. After the market deviates from fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented pace, which is simply unimaginable given stable earnings growth.</p><p>At such times,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to set aside fundamentals and invest according to investors' emotions.</b></p><p>This demonstrates that these two most successful investors in history possess completely opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, \"Watch out, you need to put on your swim trunks.\"</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investing.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as a trend forming and funds flowing, should they follow the trend and ride the wave? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no single right answer to this multiple-choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including the struggling retailer GameStop (code: GME), have completely detached themselves from reality.</p><p>Soros might say the market is too crazy and the time has come to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to exacerbate the stock's frenzy.</p><p>Buffett, on the other hand, might say that GameStop's price is absurd and unsustainable, and he would never touch such a stock.</p><p>As shown in the diagram below, Soros's trading methods have been largely correct so far. However, we are also confident that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But putting aside those crazy stocks,<b>A factor is emerging in the market that gives investors the opportunity to side with both Soros and Buffett. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trending stocks; are these two giants leading the same path?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite investment type; simply put, they refer to undervalued stocks that typically...<b>Use a low price-to-book ratio as a judgment indicator.</b>Value investors typically find stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks, on the other hand, mainly refer to stocks whose prices are constantly rising.<b>Typically, they tend to generate positive high returns for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>Most of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>Valuationists believe that if the price of a stock rises, then its price no longer becomes cheap.</p><p>Trendsetters believe that if a stock is trading cheaply, its price will usually continue to decline.</p><p>As the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks.<b>Value stocks have also developed the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many Wall Street investors and institutions identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (siding with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow trends (siding with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic investors specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>However, as value stocks also become trending stocks, investors' interest in undervalued, strong-trending stocks is gathering in large numbers.</b>This may drive these stocks to continue rising, forming a stronger trend and thus fueling the frenzy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value stocks are making a comeback! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue stocks are making a comeback! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1031387410\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">弹道财经 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Dr. David Eifrig</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can now seize a type of trading opportunity because it aligns with the philosophies of both leaders!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS. Soros, who would you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trending stocks; are the two bigwigs leading the same path?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views expressed in this article are based on publicly available market information and historical data and do not constitute direct investment advice. They are for communication purposes only. Feel free to leave a comment to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS. Soros, who would you side with?</b></p><p>Often, investors entering the market face a choice: should they side with Buffett or Soros? They represent two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The successes of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros are both legendary. Whether it's Soros's $1 billion profit during the \"takedown of the Bank of England\" or Buffett's 1550% return on Coca-Cola stock, both are remarkable achievements that are difficult for many to replicate.</p><p>However, if investors intend to imitate the investment strategies of these two legendary figures, they can usually only choose one big shot to follow. Because these two investment gurus have completely opposite views on volatility and risk. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works—his return on investment is far superior to that of most speculators.</p><p>Warren Buffett famously said, \"You'll only know who's swimming naked when the tide goes out.\"</p><p>In other words, the bull market provided cover for excessive risk betting. However, if investors have been taking risks without doing their due diligence or adequately preparing for a decline, then they will be the first to be affected when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>In contrast to Buffett, Soros prefers to jump into strong market trends.</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, which is what we often call chasing highs and selling lows), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble forming, I will quickly buy to add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a danger sign, but rather an opportunity. After the market deviates from fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented pace, which is simply unimaginable given stable earnings growth.</p><p>At such times,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to set aside fundamentals and invest according to investors' emotions.</b></p><p>This demonstrates that these two most successful investors in history possess completely opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, \"Watch out, you need to put on your swim trunks.\"</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investing.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as a trend forming and funds flowing, should they follow the trend and ride the wave? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no single right answer to this multiple-choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including the struggling retailer GameStop (code: GME), have completely detached themselves from reality.</p><p>Soros might say the market is too crazy and the time has come to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to exacerbate the stock's frenzy.</p><p>Buffett, on the other hand, might say that GameStop's price is absurd and unsustainable, and he would never touch such a stock.</p><p>As shown in the diagram below, Soros's trading methods have been largely correct so far. However, we are also confident that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But putting aside those crazy stocks,<b>A factor is emerging in the market that gives investors the opportunity to side with both Soros and Buffett. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trending stocks; are these two giants leading the same path?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite investment type; simply put, they refer to undervalued stocks that typically...<b>Use a low price-to-book ratio as a judgment indicator.</b>Value investors typically find stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks, on the other hand, mainly refer to stocks whose prices are constantly rising.<b>Typically, they tend to generate positive high returns for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>Most of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>Valuationists believe that if the price of a stock rises, then its price no longer becomes cheap.</p><p>Trendsetters believe that if a stock is trading cheaply, its price will usually continue to decline.</p><p>As the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks.<b>Value stocks have also developed the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many Wall Street investors and institutions identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (siding with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow trends (siding with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic investors specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>However, as value stocks also become trending stocks, investors' interest in undervalued, strong-trending stocks is gathering in large numbers.</b>This may drive these stocks to continue rising, forming a stronger trend and thus fueling the frenzy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fabf9c2bc6a3d13c57438fc00bbe4f1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196342132","content_text":"作者：David Eifrig博士\n摘要：无论你认可巴菲特，还是认同索罗斯，现在都可以把握一类交易机会，因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念！\n本文聚焦\n1、巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n2、价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨相关话题。\nPART1\n巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n在很多时候，进入市场的投资者都得面对一道选择题，是站队巴菲特还是站队索罗斯？他们背后代表的是两套投资哲学。\n投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功都颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元，还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报，都战绩赫赫，是很多人难以复制的成功。\n但如果投资者有意模仿这两位传奇人物的投资套路，通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为，这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点，是截然相反的。在大多数时候，投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营，要么站队索罗斯阵营。\n巴菲特以价值投资著称，他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者，不擅长做投机交易。长期来看，他已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。\n巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去，你才会知道谁在裸泳。”\n换句话说，就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险，却没有尽职做好调研，未对下跌做好充足的准备，那么在泡沫破裂时，投资者将会首当其冲。\n与巴菲特相反，索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中（译者注：趋势投资者，即我们常说的追涨杀跌），正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后，我就会赶紧买入，火上浇油一把。”\n在索罗斯看来，投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号，反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后，它们还会以前所未有的速度继续上涨，这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。\n在这种时候，索罗斯的投资哲学是抛开基本面，顺着投资者的情绪进行投资。\n由此可见，从这两位有史以来最成功的投资者身上，能看到的是截然相反的投资智慧。索罗斯想裸泳直至最后一波浪潮袭来，而巴菲特则会说，当心，你要穿好泳裤。\n这是潜藏在投资中的一个本质问题。\n当投资者看到一些市场苗头，比如看到趋势正在形成，资金正在流动，此时到底是要追随趋势、乘风破浪？还是该考虑“均值”回归，押注它们的真实价值？在大多数时候，这道选择题没有唯一正确的答案。\n比如在最近的“梗股（meme stock）”狂潮中，包括处境艰难的零售商GameStop (代码：GME)在内，一些股票已经完全脱离了现实。\n可能索罗斯会说市场太疯狂了，赚大钱的时机到了，于是他会找到GameStop相对完美的交易机会，来加剧这只股票的疯狂。\n而巴菲特则恰恰相反，他可能会说GameStop的价格是荒谬且不可持续的，他绝不会染指这种股票。\n如下图所示，截至目前，索罗斯的交易方法大部分是正确的。然而，我们也确信，巴菲特所持的判断，最终也会得到验证。\n\n但撇开那些疯狂的股票不谈，目前市场上正出现一个因素，让投资者有机会同时站队索罗斯和巴菲特。有一些类型的股票，可能同时得到索罗斯阵营和巴菲特阵营的青睐。\nPART2\n价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n价值股是巴菲特最青睐的投资类型，简单来说，就是指估值较低的股票，它们通常可以用较低的市净率作为判断指标。价值投资者通常在这些业务稳固但被低估的股票中，发掘稳定的投资机会。\n而趋势股，则主要指那些价格不断上行的股票，通常来说，它们往往连续12个月为产生正的高收益率。\n绝大多数时候，价值投资者和趋势投资者对市场的看法是相反的。具体来说：\n价值派认为，如果一只股票的价格上涨了，那么它的价格就变得不再便宜。\n趋势派则认为，如果一只股票的交易价格很便宜，那么它的价格通常会继续走低。\n而随着经济走强，市场开始青睐价值股，价值股也有了趋势股的特征。\n\n这个机会可能是巨大的。\n华尔街的许多投资者和机构都自我认定是价值投资者，于是他们买入便宜的股票(站队巴菲特)，而许多交易者和对冲基金，则更喜欢跟随趋势(站队索罗斯)。许多基于量化和算法的投资者会专门买入价值股或趋势股，因为它们对应某个类型。\n但随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。这或将推动这些股票持续走高，形成更强的趋势，进而助长狂热。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129253312,"gmtCreate":1624374757336,"gmtModify":1703834917593,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you very much&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment, thank you very much&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment, thank you very much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129253312","repostId":"1142464181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142464181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624372497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142464181?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Missfresh's pricing range is $13-16 per ADS, with existing shareholders continuing to increase their investments.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142464181","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至","content":"<p>Beijing time, June 22nd evening news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>The F-1 prospectus has been updated, with plans to publicly offer 21 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) at a price range of $13-16 per ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders: CICC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>US long-term fund Davis and others will continue to increase their investments, purchasing up to $90 million worth of ADSs.</p><p>According to the prospectus, Missfresh's net revenue was approximately RMB 3.5467 billion, RMB 6.0014 billion, and RMB 6.1304 billion in 2018, 2018, and 2020, respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Missfresh's net revenue was RMB 1.6898 billion, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, net revenue was RMB 1.5302 billion.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Missfresh's gross profit was RMB 304 million in 2018, increased by 71.3% to RMB 520.9 million in 2019, and increased by another 128.5% to RMB 1.1904 billion in 2020. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Missfresh's gross profit was RMB 510.8 million, compared to RMB 189 million in the same period of 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, Missfresh's net losses were RMB 2.2316 billion, RMB 2.9094 billion, and RMB 1.649.2 billion, respectively. For the quarter ending March 31, 2020, Missfresh reported a net loss of 194.7 million yuan, compared to a loss of 610.3 million yuan in the same period of 2021. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, Missfresh's adjusted net loss (non-GAAP standard) was RMB 2.215.9 billion, RMB 2.777 billion and RMB 1.5897 billion, respectively. For the quarter ending March 31, 2020, Missfresh reported an adjusted net loss of RMB 175.8 million, compared to a loss of RMB 598.4 million in the same period of 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Missfresh's pricing range is $13-16 per ADS, with existing shareholders continuing to increase their investments.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMissfresh's pricing range is $13-16 per ADS, with existing shareholders continuing to increase their investments.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beijing time, June 22nd evening news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>The F-1 prospectus has been updated, with plans to publicly offer 21 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) at a price range of $13-16 per ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders: CICC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>US long-term fund Davis and others will continue to increase their investments, purchasing up to $90 million worth of ADSs.</p><p>According to the prospectus, Missfresh's net revenue was approximately RMB 3.5467 billion, RMB 6.0014 billion, and RMB 6.1304 billion in 2018, 2018, and 2020, respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Missfresh's net revenue was RMB 1.6898 billion, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, net revenue was RMB 1.5302 billion.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Missfresh's gross profit was RMB 304 million in 2018, increased by 71.3% to RMB 520.9 million in 2019, and increased by another 128.5% to RMB 1.1904 billion in 2020. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Missfresh's gross profit was RMB 510.8 million, compared to RMB 189 million in the same period of 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, Missfresh's net losses were RMB 2.2316 billion, RMB 2.9094 billion, and RMB 1.649.2 billion, respectively. For the quarter ending March 31, 2020, Missfresh reported a net loss of 194.7 million yuan, compared to a loss of 610.3 million yuan in the same period of 2021. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, Missfresh's adjusted net loss (non-GAAP standard) was RMB 2.215.9 billion, RMB 2.777 billion and RMB 1.5897 billion, respectively. For the quarter ending March 31, 2020, Missfresh reported an adjusted net loss of RMB 175.8 million, compared to a loss of RMB 598.4 million in the same period of 2021.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc6d948584260429c150c1dd44a898f","relate_stocks":{"MF":"MindForge Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142464181","content_text":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至多价值9000万美元的ADS。\n招股书显示，每日优鲜2018年-2020年的净营收分别约为35.467亿元， 60.014亿元，61.304亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的净营收为16.898亿元，截止2021年3月31日的三个月，净营收为15.302亿元。\n招股书还显示，每日优鲜的毛利润在2018年为3.04亿元，2019年增长71.3%了至5.209亿元，2020年再增长128.5%，达到11.904亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的毛利为5.108亿元，2021年的同期为1.89亿元。\n2018年至2020年，每日优鲜净亏损分别为22.316亿元，29.094亿元、16.492亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜净亏损1.947亿元，2021年同期亏损6.103亿元。2018年、2019年和2020年，每日优鲜的调整后净亏损（非GAAP标准）分别为22.159亿元、27.77亿元、15.897亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜调整后净亏损为1.758亿元，2021年同期亏损5.984亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168515476,"gmtCreate":1623978586195,"gmtModify":1703825240006,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168515476","repostId":"2144164740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144164740","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623978494,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144164740?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The day after the Federal Reserve anticipated an earlier rate hike, long-term US Treasury yields plummeted. Why?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144164740","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周四，30年期美债收益率大幅下行16个基点，创2月来最大盘中跌幅和四个月最低，五年/30年期收益率曲线创去年11月来最平。一方面，美联储加息时间提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使收益率曲线走平，同时，这也是QE即将终结的号角。市场对“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维亟需转变。","content":"<p>On Thursday, June 17, a day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" suggested an earlier 2023 rate hike, the U.S. long-term Treasury Bond yield plummeted, giving back all of yesterday's gains, and the yield curve flattened further.</p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has returned below the 1.50% mark, falling as much as 9.7 basis points on the day to a daily low of 1.47%, after surging from less than 1.50% to 1.569% yesterday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points on the day, marking its biggest intraday drop since February, hitting a daily low of 2.049%, a four-month low since mid-February.</b>。 Yesterday's gains were relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, making today's decline even more pronounced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The yield curves for five-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have flattened further, with the yield spread, a typical representative of medium- and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, plummeting to 118 basis points, the flattest level since November last year. Following yesterday's FOMC meeting, the yield on five-year US Treasury bonds surged by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. Treasury yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively plummeted. By midday, bank ETFs had fallen by more than 4%, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index had fallen 4.5%, marking its biggest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell by more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It fell 3%.</p><p>Meanwhile, the ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 mark, hitting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, with COME August gold futures closing down nearly 4.7%, marking at least the largest single-day drop for the main contract since November last year, closing below $1,775, also the lowest closing price since April 30.</p><p><h2><b>The Federal Reserve's rate hike schedule suppressed long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, leading to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve.</b></h2><b>Why have long-term US Treasury yields reversed dramatically, while the yield curve is collapsing at an accelerated pace?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the composite U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened over the past two days, the highest level since the liquidity crisis began last March.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and constrained long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve. Money market traders have even brought forward their pricing expectations for the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Federal Reserve's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given the green light to those who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as investments, and market participants have begun buying long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to hedge other riskier positions in their portfolios.</p><p>Priya Misra, global head of interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a “major setback” following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting trades that bet on a steepening of the 5-year/30-year US Treasury yield curve. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs, holds a similar view.</p><p>CNBC, a financial media outlet, believes that prices of base metals such as copper continued their weekly decline, and bond traders are watching for a sharp sell-off in commodities. Bond yields typically move in sync with commodities, as they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 412,000 last week, returning above the 400,000 mark and exceeding market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also led some investors to return to the US Treasury market, thereby lowering bond yields.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge, citing analysis from global economic trends website Mish Talk, stated that the US Treasury yield curve cannot currently be called \"absolutely flat,\" but the gradually flattening trend is important, and the sharp drop in the 30-year long-term US Treasury yield is itself a significant signal.<b>This means that inflation fears are largely in the \"rearview mirror,\" meaning they are no longer the main concern of the market and the key factor influencing trading behavior.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the US Treasury yield curve may signal the imminent end of quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying program; investors should buy bonds.</b></h2>Wall Street Insights also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, dubbed \"the most important in five years,\" marks the gradual entry of monetary policy into its second phase. Going forward, the focus of market disagreements may lie in the \"slow\" or \"urgent\" nature of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will normalize at all. The habitual thinking of a \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed.</p><p>Looking at the results, the four \"surprises\" we mentioned in Tuesday's preview surprisingly came true: the Taper was released, inflation expectations were raised, the timing of the rate hike was moved forward, and the IOER/ON RRP rate was raised. This means that the Federal Reserve has shown signs of releasing a phased exit signal through expectation guidance tools.<b>Many believe that the high-profile flattening of the US Treasury yield curve is a warning sign that QE quantitative easing bond-buying is about to end.</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of US Treasury yields in different periods before, during, and after the Federal Reserve's QE. He found that the 10-year US Treasury yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reverses QE by buying bonds through quantitative tightening (QT), US Treasury yields often fall sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve follows a similar pattern. During the period of quantitative easing (QE), short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, meaning the yield curve steepens. However, after QE ends, the yield curve flattens rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His suggestions are:</p><p>\"From the start of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year US Treasury yield tends to rise by about 1%. US Treasury yields peak before QE ends, at which point the Federal Reserve will get closer to tapering its bond purchases or stopping QE purchases. Currently, US Treasury yields are approaching their cyclical high, and if the Federal Reserve is close to tapering its bond purchases, US Treasury yields may peak.\" Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Federal Reserve is actually about to taper, the 10-year US Treasury yield will fall by 1% or more in the next 6 months to a year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds performed poorly during QE, but will perform strongly after it ends.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Federal Reserve's pace of reducing quantitative easing grows, both our total bond allocation and bond durations should increase. Since the FOMC's unexpected hawkish turn yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will formally announce the tapering of asset purchases at its September meeting, with the actual tapering of bond purchases to begin in November, sooner than they had previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. taper is also a harbinger of actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Mingming once stated that a flattening yield curve might affect consumption levels; therefore, a flattening yield curve typically indicates that the market believes economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future.</p><p>Rising short-term yields may indirectly affect certain mortgage rates. If short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, some consumer mortgage rates will also rise accordingly, thereby affecting consumer demand. In addition, rising Treasury Bond rates in the short term may increase some financing costs, reducing consumers' disposable income and potentially negatively impacting consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The day after the Federal Reserve anticipated an earlier rate hike, long-term US Treasury yields plummeted. Why?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe day after the Federal Reserve anticipated an earlier rate hike, long-term US Treasury yields plummeted. Why?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, June 17, a day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" suggested an earlier 2023 rate hike, the U.S. long-term Treasury Bond yield plummeted, giving back all of yesterday's gains, and the yield curve flattened further.</p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has returned below the 1.50% mark, falling as much as 9.7 basis points on the day to a daily low of 1.47%, after surging from less than 1.50% to 1.569% yesterday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points on the day, marking its biggest intraday drop since February, hitting a daily low of 2.049%, a four-month low since mid-February.</b>。 Yesterday's gains were relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, making today's decline even more pronounced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The yield curves for five-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have flattened further, with the yield spread, a typical representative of medium- and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, plummeting to 118 basis points, the flattest level since November last year. Following yesterday's FOMC meeting, the yield on five-year US Treasury bonds surged by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. Treasury yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively plummeted. By midday, bank ETFs had fallen by more than 4%, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index had fallen 4.5%, marking its biggest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell by more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It fell 3%.</p><p>Meanwhile, the ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 mark, hitting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, with COME August gold futures closing down nearly 4.7%, marking at least the largest single-day drop for the main contract since November last year, closing below $1,775, also the lowest closing price since April 30.</p><p><h2><b>The Federal Reserve's rate hike schedule suppressed long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, leading to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve.</b></h2><b>Why have long-term US Treasury yields reversed dramatically, while the yield curve is collapsing at an accelerated pace?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the composite U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened over the past two days, the highest level since the liquidity crisis began last March.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and constrained long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve. Money market traders have even brought forward their pricing expectations for the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Federal Reserve's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given the green light to those who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as investments, and market participants have begun buying long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to hedge other riskier positions in their portfolios.</p><p>Priya Misra, global head of interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a “major setback” following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting trades that bet on a steepening of the 5-year/30-year US Treasury yield curve. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs, holds a similar view.</p><p>CNBC, a financial media outlet, believes that prices of base metals such as copper continued their weekly decline, and bond traders are watching for a sharp sell-off in commodities. Bond yields typically move in sync with commodities, as they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 412,000 last week, returning above the 400,000 mark and exceeding market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also led some investors to return to the US Treasury market, thereby lowering bond yields.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge, citing analysis from global economic trends website Mish Talk, stated that the US Treasury yield curve cannot currently be called \"absolutely flat,\" but the gradually flattening trend is important, and the sharp drop in the 30-year long-term US Treasury yield is itself a significant signal.<b>This means that inflation fears are largely in the \"rearview mirror,\" meaning they are no longer the main concern of the market and the key factor influencing trading behavior.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the US Treasury yield curve may signal the imminent end of quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying program; investors should buy bonds.</b></h2>Wall Street Insights also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, dubbed \"the most important in five years,\" marks the gradual entry of monetary policy into its second phase. Going forward, the focus of market disagreements may lie in the \"slow\" or \"urgent\" nature of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will normalize at all. The habitual thinking of a \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed.</p><p>Looking at the results, the four \"surprises\" we mentioned in Tuesday's preview surprisingly came true: the Taper was released, inflation expectations were raised, the timing of the rate hike was moved forward, and the IOER/ON RRP rate was raised. This means that the Federal Reserve has shown signs of releasing a phased exit signal through expectation guidance tools.<b>Many believe that the high-profile flattening of the US Treasury yield curve is a warning sign that QE quantitative easing bond-buying is about to end.</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of US Treasury yields in different periods before, during, and after the Federal Reserve's QE. He found that the 10-year US Treasury yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reverses QE by buying bonds through quantitative tightening (QT), US Treasury yields often fall sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve follows a similar pattern. During the period of quantitative easing (QE), short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, meaning the yield curve steepens. However, after QE ends, the yield curve flattens rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His suggestions are:</p><p>\"From the start of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year US Treasury yield tends to rise by about 1%. US Treasury yields peak before QE ends, at which point the Federal Reserve will get closer to tapering its bond purchases or stopping QE purchases. Currently, US Treasury yields are approaching their cyclical high, and if the Federal Reserve is close to tapering its bond purchases, US Treasury yields may peak.\" Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Federal Reserve is actually about to taper, the 10-year US Treasury yield will fall by 1% or more in the next 6 months to a year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds performed poorly during QE, but will perform strongly after it ends.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Federal Reserve's pace of reducing quantitative easing grows, both our total bond allocation and bond durations should increase. Since the FOMC's unexpected hawkish turn yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will formally announce the tapering of asset purchases at its September meeting, with the actual tapering of bond purchases to begin in November, sooner than they had previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. taper is also a harbinger of actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Mingming once stated that a flattening yield curve might affect consumption levels; therefore, a flattening yield curve typically indicates that the market believes economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future.</p><p>Rising short-term yields may indirectly affect certain mortgage rates. If short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, some consumer mortgage rates will also rise accordingly, thereby affecting consumer demand. In addition, rising Treasury Bond rates in the short term may increase some financing costs, reducing consumers' disposable income and potentially negatively impacting consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144164740","content_text":"6月17日周四，在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国长期国债收益率大跌，回吐昨日全部涨幅，收益率曲线更加趋平。\n10年期基准美国国债收益率重回1.50%关口下方，日内最深下行9.7个基点，日低下逼1.47%，昨日曾从不足1.50%飙升至1.569%。\n\n30年期美债收益率日内最深下行16个基点，创2月以来最大盘中跌幅，日低至2.049%，刷新2月中旬来的四个月最低。昨日涨幅相对不大，曾从2.18%升至近2.21%，因此今日跌势更加醒目。\n\n五年期与30年期美债收益率曲线更为趋平，中期与长期美债典型代表的收益率息差骤降至118个基点，曲线为去年11月以来最平状态。昨日FOMC会后，五年期美债收益率曾暴涨超11个基点。\n\n伴随美债收益率下跌，美股银行股集体大跌，午盘时银行业ETF跌超4%，费城KBW银行指数下跌4.5%，创七个月最大盘中跌幅。富国银行、花旗、美国银行、摩根士丹利均跌超4%，高盛和摩根大通跌3%。\n同时，ICE美元指数一度上破92整数位，刷新4月13日以来的两个月高位。现货黄金自5月5日以来首次跌破1770美元，COME 8月期金收跌近4.7%，至少创去年11月以来主力合约最大单日跌幅，收报不足1775美元，也创4月30日以来收盘最低。\n美联储加息时间表提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使美债收益率曲线趋平\n为何长期美债收益率出现戏剧性逆转，同时收益率曲线在加速坍塌？据彭博社数据，过去两天的综合美债收益率曲线趋平幅度，为去年3月流动性危机以来的最高水平。\n有分析认为，美联储最新点阵图预期2023年底之前将加息两次，这一转变推高了较短期限的市场利率，并制约了长期通胀预期，导致美债收益率曲线趋平。货币市场交易员们甚至把对美联储加息25个基点的定价预期提前到了明年第四季度。\nMUFG Securities Americas 美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves认为，美联储“作为通胀斗士的可信度”，给此前担心购买长久期国债作为投资的人们大开绿灯，市场参与者开始购入长期美债，用来对冲投资组合中其他风险更高的头寸。\n道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也认为，继美联储在6月政策会议上发出鹰派信号之后，再通胀交易（reflation trade）遭受了“重大挫折”，建议退出押注五年/30年期美债收益率曲线陡峭化的交易。高盛集团首席利率策略师Praveen Korapaty也持类似观点。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，铜等基础金属价格继续周度下跌，债券交易员正在关注大宗商品的大幅抛售。债券收益率通常与大宗商品同步变动，因为它们都被视为全球经济增长的晴雨表。今日最新数据显示，上周美国首申失业金人数增至41.2万，重回40万关口上方，高于市场预期的36万人，避险需求也导致部分投资者回流美债市场，进而压低债券收益率。\n金融博客Zerohedge援引全球经济趋势网站Mish Talk的分析称，美债收益率曲线目前不能称为“绝对平坦”，但日渐趋平的趋势很重要，30年期长期美债收益率大跌本身也是重要信号，这代表通胀恐慌已经基本处于“后视镜”中，即不是市场主要担心并影响交易举动的要点了。\n美债收益率曲线高调趋平或是QE量宽买债即将终结的号角，投资者应买债\n华尔街见闻也分析指出，昨日被称为“五年来最重要”的FOMC会议标志着货币政策将逐渐走入下半场，以后市场分歧的焦点或在于货币政策正常化的“缓”与“急”，而不是会否正常化，“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维需要作出转变：\n\n 从结果来看，我们在周二前瞻中提到四大“惊喜”居然系数落地：放风Taper，通胀预期上调，加息时点前移，IOER /ON RRP利率上调，这意味着美联储已表现出通过预期引导工具，释放阶段性退出信号的姿态。\n\n不少人认为，美债收益率曲线高调趋平发出的正是QE量宽买债即将终结的警示音。\n分析师Michael Lebowtiz对比了美债收益率在美联储历次QE前、中、后不同时期的表现。他发现，10年期美债收益率在每个QE期间上升、并在QE结束时下降，如下图画圈处所示，当美联储通过量化紧缩 （QT）来逆转QE买债时，美债收益率往往急剧下降。\n\n同样，两年/10年期美债收益率曲线的走势类似。QE量宽期间，短期收益率相对稳定且长期收益率上升，即收益率曲线陡峭化，但在QE结束后，收益率曲线会迅速变平。\n\n他给出的建议是：\n\n “从QE开始到QE期间的峰值收益率水平处，10年期美债收益率往往会上涨约1%。美债收益率会在QE结束前达到峰值，这时美联储也会越来越接近缩减购债（taper）或停止QE购买。目前，美债收益率正接近其周期高点，如果美联储接近缩减购债，美债收益率可能会见顶。鉴于此前的QE末期缩减购债经验，如果美联储实际上即将taper，10年期美债收益率会在未来6个月到一年内下降1%甚至更多。股市投资者可能不知道的是，QE期间债券表现不佳，QE结束后会表现强劲。\n 债券投资者应该在美联储买入时卖出、在美联储卖出时买入。随着我们对美联储降低量化宽松步伐的信心增强，我们的债券配置总量和债券久期都应增加。”\n\n自昨日FOMC意外转鹰后，巴克莱银行的经济学家认为，美联储将在9月会议上正式宣布缩减资产购买的taper计划，实际削减买债从11月开始执行，快于他们此前预期的今年11月宣布和明年1月开始执行。而taper也是实际加息的前兆。\n中信证券明明曾称，趋平的收益率曲线可能会对消费水平有所影响，因此，收益率曲线趋平通常表明市场认为经济增长不可持续，将在未来下降：\n\n 短期收益率水平的上升可能会通过间接影响某些抵押贷款利率，如果短期利率高于长期利率，一些消费抵押贷款利率也会随之升高，进而影响消费者的消费需求；此外，短期国债利率的升高可能会提升部分融资成本，消费者的可支配收入相对减少，对消费需求可能产生负面影响。趋平的收益率曲线对固定收益投资者和房地产投资者也有负面影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184070530,"gmtCreate":1623679294220,"gmtModify":1704208499930,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184070530","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130356214,"gmtCreate":1621515127938,"gmtModify":1704358874764,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130356214","repostId":"2136317942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194869875,"gmtCreate":1621354366597,"gmtModify":1704356367897,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194869875","repostId":"1187734006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187734006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1621339333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187734006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 20:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Haidilao has fallen into a deep red sea; simply opening stores won't help it recover.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187734006","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月，海底捞股价腰斩，由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不","content":"<p>For leading companies that were once high-growth, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the growth slope eases, the fundamental valuation judgments will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, falling from about HK$85 to around HK$44. The direct trigger was a weaker-than-expected performance recovery, specifically a decline in profits and table turnover rates.</p><p>A research report published by Morgan Stanley in May of this year only gave Haidilao a \"in line with the market\" rating, with a target price of HK$56. The report revealed that Haidilao restaurants' overall table turnover rate in April was less than 3%, lower than in March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs gave a \"neutral\" rating in a report published earlier in March, with a target price of HK$57; The report stated at the time that the slow recovery from the turnaround in Taiwan could pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term—major bank ratings are neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight,\" and have always been regarded by many investors as close to \"sell.\"</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a deep red sea, a matter of \"the elephant in the room,\" but for a considerable period of time, investors treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry position and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation has consistently been higher than that of its peers like Yum China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was the COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted the inertia of this understanding. In 2020, Haidilao's number of stores bucked the trend and grew, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 showed that the marginal improvement brought about by continuous store expansion was weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be doing well? The question needs to be asked in two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operations return to their former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price recover? They are not actually the same question, and the answers to both will not arrive simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Table turnover crisis? It's actually a passenger flow crisis.</b></p><p>The most discussed key metric for Haidilao in the market is table turnover rate.</p><p>There are essentially two ways for restaurants to increase table turnover: First, shorten customer dining time; Second, increase customers' willingness to wait for a table. When eating hot pot, it's all about time, and Haidilao's focus on maintaining table turnover is clearly on the second point.</p><p>As is well known, Haidilao has pioneered a complete set of value-added services to appease customers waiting for a table, which has been unmatched in the catering industry for many years. Therefore, the preliminary conclusion regarding the decline in Haidilao's table turnover rate is probably that it's not that customers who have come are unwilling to wait, but rather that not as many customers have arrived.</p><p>We can use the \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"average customer spending\" data from the company's financial statements to simply calculate the number of customers dining at Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, Haidilao restaurants' revenue in first-tier cities was RMB 6.481625 billion and RMB 5.930587 billion, respectively, while the average spending per customer in first-tier cities was RMB 110.1 and RMB 116.2, respectively. By dividing \"revenue\" by \"per capita consumption,\" Haidilao restaurants had approximately 58.87 million customers in first-tier cities in 2019, while the figure for 2020 was 51.038 million, a decrease of about 13% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Haidilao restaurant operating revenue by geographical region (data table excerpted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Performance Indicators of Haidilao Restaurants (Data table excerpted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, Haidilao had a total of 1,298 restaurants, an increase of nearly 70% compared to 768 in 2019. According to its financial report, Haidilao restaurants served over 250 million customers in 2020, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% compared to 244 million customers in 2019.</p><p>Meanwhile, Haidilao's table turnover rate for newly opened restaurants in 2020 was only 2.8%, a decrease of more than 30% compared to 4.1% in 2019.</p><p>A recent report by Morgan Stanley revealed that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was less than 3%, a month-on-month decrease compared to March, and only about 70% of the level in the same period of 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed was largely in line with market expectations, and its revenue in lower-tier cities saw considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that the increasing number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening.</b>。</p><p>In April, the Weibo trending topic \"Eat at Haidilao for 17 yuan\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But the more practical problem is: customers still like you, they just won't eat you anymore.</p><p>So, where did the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>With diverse alternatives, the hot pot market is booming.</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's table turnover rate and stock price can return to an upward trajectory, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>Data from the China Hotel Association and NCBD (Canbaodian) shows that in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to have fallen back to the level of 2018, which is about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, multiple predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-dollar market; In the venture capital world, this is considered one of the main bases for betting on this sector; Emerging entrepreneurs, traditional well-known companies, and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of a trillion-yuan scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The hot pot market is actually very low in concentration.</b>。 Data from the China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020 shows that the CR5 of the Chinese hot pot market was only 5.5%. The demand for hot pot is fragmented, and besides the leading companies, there are many other participants—</p><p>Continuous innovation in product categories and brands. Xiaolongkan and Tanyaxue challenged Haidilao in terms of taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the average order value (regardless of success or failure); Lazy Bear Hot Pot secured nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef hot pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, sour fish soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their places of origin to the whole country over the years.</p><p>The hot pot broth and seasoning industry is heating up. According to the \"Broth Storm: In-depth Report on the Hot Pot Broth Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May, hot pot brands entering the C-end market and traditional condiment companies expanding their product categories are making competition in the industry increasingly fierce. The addictiveness of spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the industry's accelerated growth in the household sector. The listed companies mentioned in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Foods, and Haitian Flavoring.</p><p>Hot pot ingredient supermarkets are on the rise. Hema Fresh launches \"Hot Pot Season\"; E-commerce platforms such as Missfresh and Dingdong Maicai are making strides; Anjoy Foods and others are taking this opportunity to increase their market share in quick-frozen foods or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-industry attempts are frequently Mengniu and Gome entered the market; Liangpin Shop and Three Squirrels are making self-indulgent hot pot; Even Bilibili got involved. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even trendy small appliances with optimized designs and functions are fueling this trend.</p><p>Haidilao has certainly played a significant role in all of this and has achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a very small proportion of its total revenue and are insufficient to compensate for the decline in the company's overall core business indicators. Taking food delivery as an example, in 2020, Haidilao's food delivery revenue rose from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%. However, in terms of revenue share, it only increased from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>I would like to reiterate the previous point here.<b>The hot pot market is so dark, and even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, its marginal effectiveness will be difficult to reach the level of its earlier years.</b>。</p><p>For leading companies that were once high-growth, the market does not value growth rate, but \"the growth rate of growth rate\". Once the growth slope eases, the fundamental valuation judgments will also change.</p><p>This is not to say that the items listed above can fundamentally undermine the more social and ritualistic dine-in hot pot market—as mentioned earlier, they are inherently fragmented—but rather that the diversification of alternatives is inhibiting the regrowth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. Data from Meituan-Dianping shows that as of 2020, hot pot accounted for more than 13% of China's regular meal market, making it the largest segment. We cannot be overly optimistic that total market demand can continue to expand rapidly, or that the proportion of hot pot products can still increase significantly.</p><p>Another possibility, slightly further away, is that hidden competition also comes from neighboring industries.</p><p>Before the term \"internet celebrity\" became widespread, Haidilao was once the leader in the internet celebrity industry. The business community is circulating the slogan \"You Can't Learn Haidilao,\" and good friends are keen to experience the companionship and meticulous attention to detail. Haidilao's service quality almost became an urban legend in the 1990s.</p><p>To this day,<b>This generation of young people has dedicated the \"queuing\" issue to milk tea and other popular online shops.</b>。 Data from the NCBD shows that young women remain the main consumer group for hot pot. In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of hot pot consumers in China; Among them, those aged 26-30 accounted for 30.1%, and those aged 18-25 accounted for 28.1%. To make a rough estimate, in actual consumption scenarios, the number of businesses competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers far exceeds that of ten years ago.</p><p>Waiting for a table means waiting for Haidilao's consumer preferences to fade. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and snacks are no longer novel. More importantly, the ultimate service experience, as a core competitive advantage, is losing its magic as customers gradually become desensitized and their thresholds rise. At this point, we have not yet discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by issues such as menu price increases.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be okay?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy was to pick up high-quality stores at low prices, resulting in a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, the number of companies in first-tier cities in mainland China increased by 65, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with the growth rate slowing down; Second-tier cities saw a net increase of 167, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% Third-tier cities saw a net increase of 257, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. As of the end of March 2021, the company had signed 91 new stores. Including the stores that had been signed but not yet opened last year, the number of stores opened for the whole of 2021 is expected to remain above 500.</p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. Net profit decreased by 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and increased salary levels, employee costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortisation increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs increased from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowings. With operations suspended and cash flow drying up during the pandemic, Haidilao borrowed a large sum of money to support its store expansion against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings amounted to RMB 3.9894 billion.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be doing well? This question needs to be divided into two parts. (1) When will Haidilao's operations return to their former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price recover? They are not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, as the vaccination progress in China deepens, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover as people's social habits recover. Meanwhile, Haidilao's growth in lower-tier cities is promising. The prevailing market view is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to a Morgan Stanley report, Haidilao's table turnover rate in April this year was less than 3%;<b>It should be noted that even this table turnover rate, which was considered lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average.</b>。 Data from the China Hotel Association and NCBD shows that in China's catering industry, the table turnover rate for main meals is around 2.1%, fast food and snacks can reach over 8%, and the overall table turnover rate for hot pot is about 2.3%. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, Coucou Hotpot's table turnover rate was 2.9% in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate as high as 4.8% in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not whether Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how excellent it can be and whether it can continue to become even better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should be wary of the possibility of its valuation center shifting downwards.</p><p>In the restaurant chain industry, Starbucks' historical valuation trajectory can provide some reference. During its period of emergence, brand rise, and rapid expansion, its P/E was consistently higher than 50 times, or even more than 100 times. After the period of rapid growth ended, its P/E adjusted and fluctuated within a range of 20 times or less; Once the company returned to a steady upward trajectory, Starbucks' valuation recovered to a large extent, but it did not return to the level of its period of rapid growth.</p><p>For investors looking to buy Haidilao at rock-bottom prices, it is essential to cautiously await more definitive signals of earnings recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Haidilao has fallen into a deep red sea; simply opening stores won't help it recover.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHaidilao has fallen into a deep red sea; simply opening stores won't help it recover.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For leading companies that were once high-growth, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the growth slope eases, the fundamental valuation judgments will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, falling from about HK$85 to around HK$44. The direct trigger was a weaker-than-expected performance recovery, specifically a decline in profits and table turnover rates.</p><p>A research report published by Morgan Stanley in May of this year only gave Haidilao a \"in line with the market\" rating, with a target price of HK$56. The report revealed that Haidilao restaurants' overall table turnover rate in April was less than 3%, lower than in March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs gave a \"neutral\" rating in a report published earlier in March, with a target price of HK$57; The report stated at the time that the slow recovery from the turnaround in Taiwan could pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term—major bank ratings are neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight,\" and have always been regarded by many investors as close to \"sell.\"</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a deep red sea, a matter of \"the elephant in the room,\" but for a considerable period of time, investors treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry position and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation has consistently been higher than that of its peers like Yum China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was the COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted the inertia of this understanding. In 2020, Haidilao's number of stores bucked the trend and grew, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 showed that the marginal improvement brought about by continuous store expansion was weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be doing well? The question needs to be asked in two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operations return to their former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price recover? They are not actually the same question, and the answers to both will not arrive simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Table turnover crisis? It's actually a passenger flow crisis.</b></p><p>The most discussed key metric for Haidilao in the market is table turnover rate.</p><p>There are essentially two ways for restaurants to increase table turnover: First, shorten customer dining time; Second, increase customers' willingness to wait for a table. When eating hot pot, it's all about time, and Haidilao's focus on maintaining table turnover is clearly on the second point.</p><p>As is well known, Haidilao has pioneered a complete set of value-added services to appease customers waiting for a table, which has been unmatched in the catering industry for many years. Therefore, the preliminary conclusion regarding the decline in Haidilao's table turnover rate is probably that it's not that customers who have come are unwilling to wait, but rather that not as many customers have arrived.</p><p>We can use the \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"average customer spending\" data from the company's financial statements to simply calculate the number of customers dining at Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, Haidilao restaurants' revenue in first-tier cities was RMB 6.481625 billion and RMB 5.930587 billion, respectively, while the average spending per customer in first-tier cities was RMB 110.1 and RMB 116.2, respectively. By dividing \"revenue\" by \"per capita consumption,\" Haidilao restaurants had approximately 58.87 million customers in first-tier cities in 2019, while the figure for 2020 was 51.038 million, a decrease of about 13% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Haidilao restaurant operating revenue by geographical region (data table excerpted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Performance Indicators of Haidilao Restaurants (Data table excerpted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, Haidilao had a total of 1,298 restaurants, an increase of nearly 70% compared to 768 in 2019. According to its financial report, Haidilao restaurants served over 250 million customers in 2020, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% compared to 244 million customers in 2019.</p><p>Meanwhile, Haidilao's table turnover rate for newly opened restaurants in 2020 was only 2.8%, a decrease of more than 30% compared to 4.1% in 2019.</p><p>A recent report by Morgan Stanley revealed that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was less than 3%, a month-on-month decrease compared to March, and only about 70% of the level in the same period of 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed was largely in line with market expectations, and its revenue in lower-tier cities saw considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that the increasing number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening.</b>。</p><p>In April, the Weibo trending topic \"Eat at Haidilao for 17 yuan\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But the more practical problem is: customers still like you, they just won't eat you anymore.</p><p>So, where did the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>With diverse alternatives, the hot pot market is booming.</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's table turnover rate and stock price can return to an upward trajectory, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>Data from the China Hotel Association and NCBD (Canbaodian) shows that in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to have fallen back to the level of 2018, which is about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, multiple predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-dollar market; In the venture capital world, this is considered one of the main bases for betting on this sector; Emerging entrepreneurs, traditional well-known companies, and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of a trillion-yuan scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The hot pot market is actually very low in concentration.</b>。 Data from the China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020 shows that the CR5 of the Chinese hot pot market was only 5.5%. The demand for hot pot is fragmented, and besides the leading companies, there are many other participants—</p><p>Continuous innovation in product categories and brands. Xiaolongkan and Tanyaxue challenged Haidilao in terms of taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the average order value (regardless of success or failure); Lazy Bear Hot Pot secured nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef hot pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, sour fish soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their places of origin to the whole country over the years.</p><p>The hot pot broth and seasoning industry is heating up. According to the \"Broth Storm: In-depth Report on the Hot Pot Broth Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May, hot pot brands entering the C-end market and traditional condiment companies expanding their product categories are making competition in the industry increasingly fierce. The addictiveness of spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the industry's accelerated growth in the household sector. The listed companies mentioned in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Foods, and Haitian Flavoring.</p><p>Hot pot ingredient supermarkets are on the rise. Hema Fresh launches \"Hot Pot Season\"; E-commerce platforms such as Missfresh and Dingdong Maicai are making strides; Anjoy Foods and others are taking this opportunity to increase their market share in quick-frozen foods or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-industry attempts are frequently Mengniu and Gome entered the market; Liangpin Shop and Three Squirrels are making self-indulgent hot pot; Even Bilibili got involved. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even trendy small appliances with optimized designs and functions are fueling this trend.</p><p>Haidilao has certainly played a significant role in all of this and has achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a very small proportion of its total revenue and are insufficient to compensate for the decline in the company's overall core business indicators. Taking food delivery as an example, in 2020, Haidilao's food delivery revenue rose from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%. However, in terms of revenue share, it only increased from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>I would like to reiterate the previous point here.<b>The hot pot market is so dark, and even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, its marginal effectiveness will be difficult to reach the level of its earlier years.</b>。</p><p>For leading companies that were once high-growth, the market does not value growth rate, but \"the growth rate of growth rate\". Once the growth slope eases, the fundamental valuation judgments will also change.</p><p>This is not to say that the items listed above can fundamentally undermine the more social and ritualistic dine-in hot pot market—as mentioned earlier, they are inherently fragmented—but rather that the diversification of alternatives is inhibiting the regrowth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. Data from Meituan-Dianping shows that as of 2020, hot pot accounted for more than 13% of China's regular meal market, making it the largest segment. We cannot be overly optimistic that total market demand can continue to expand rapidly, or that the proportion of hot pot products can still increase significantly.</p><p>Another possibility, slightly further away, is that hidden competition also comes from neighboring industries.</p><p>Before the term \"internet celebrity\" became widespread, Haidilao was once the leader in the internet celebrity industry. The business community is circulating the slogan \"You Can't Learn Haidilao,\" and good friends are keen to experience the companionship and meticulous attention to detail. Haidilao's service quality almost became an urban legend in the 1990s.</p><p>To this day,<b>This generation of young people has dedicated the \"queuing\" issue to milk tea and other popular online shops.</b>。 Data from the NCBD shows that young women remain the main consumer group for hot pot. In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of hot pot consumers in China; Among them, those aged 26-30 accounted for 30.1%, and those aged 18-25 accounted for 28.1%. To make a rough estimate, in actual consumption scenarios, the number of businesses competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers far exceeds that of ten years ago.</p><p>Waiting for a table means waiting for Haidilao's consumer preferences to fade. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and snacks are no longer novel. More importantly, the ultimate service experience, as a core competitive advantage, is losing its magic as customers gradually become desensitized and their thresholds rise. At this point, we have not yet discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by issues such as menu price increases.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be okay?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy was to pick up high-quality stores at low prices, resulting in a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, the number of companies in first-tier cities in mainland China increased by 65, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with the growth rate slowing down; Second-tier cities saw a net increase of 167, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% Third-tier cities saw a net increase of 257, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. As of the end of March 2021, the company had signed 91 new stores. Including the stores that had been signed but not yet opened last year, the number of stores opened for the whole of 2021 is expected to remain above 500.</p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. Net profit decreased by 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and increased salary levels, employee costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortisation increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs increased from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowings. With operations suspended and cash flow drying up during the pandemic, Haidilao borrowed a large sum of money to support its store expansion against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings amounted to RMB 3.9894 billion.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be doing well? This question needs to be divided into two parts. (1) When will Haidilao's operations return to their former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price recover? They are not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, as the vaccination progress in China deepens, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover as people's social habits recover. Meanwhile, Haidilao's growth in lower-tier cities is promising. The prevailing market view is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to a Morgan Stanley report, Haidilao's table turnover rate in April this year was less than 3%;<b>It should be noted that even this table turnover rate, which was considered lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average.</b>。 Data from the China Hotel Association and NCBD shows that in China's catering industry, the table turnover rate for main meals is around 2.1%, fast food and snacks can reach over 8%, and the overall table turnover rate for hot pot is about 2.3%. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, Coucou Hotpot's table turnover rate was 2.9% in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate as high as 4.8% in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not whether Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how excellent it can be and whether it can continue to become even better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should be wary of the possibility of its valuation center shifting downwards.</p><p>In the restaurant chain industry, Starbucks' historical valuation trajectory can provide some reference. During its period of emergence, brand rise, and rapid expansion, its P/E was consistently higher than 50 times, or even more than 100 times. After the period of rapid growth ended, its P/E adjusted and fluctuated within a range of 20 times or less; Once the company returned to a steady upward trajectory, Starbucks' valuation recovered to a large extent, but it did not return to the level of its period of rapid growth.</p><p>For investors looking to buy Haidilao at rock-bottom prices, it is essential to cautiously await more definitive signals of earnings recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f2c25e060d113f3768c45cafc16292","relate_stocks":{"06862":"海底捞"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187734006","content_text":"对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月，海底捞股价腰斩，由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不及预期，具体而言是利润和翻台率下滑。\n摩根士丹利于今年5月发表的研究报告仅给予海底捞“与大市同步”评级，目标价56港元；该报告透露，海底捞餐厅4月的整体翻台率小于3，低于3月，也低于市场预期。高盛更早于3月发表的报告给出的评级是“中性”，目标价57港元；报告当时称，翻台恢复速度缓慢，短期内可能对海底捞的收益和估值构成风险——大行评级既非“买入”，也非“增持”，向来被很多投资者视同为近似“卖出”。\n中国的火锅市场早已是深红色的海，这件事是“房间里的大象”，但在相当长的时间里，投资者对海底捞是区别对待的。基于行业地位和品牌美誉，海底捞的估值水平常年高于百胜中国这样的同业公司。\n\n是新冠疫情打断了相关认知的惯性。2020年，海底捞的门店数量逆势增长，但2021年一季度的情况显示，不断拓店所能带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n海底捞还会好吗？提问还要一分为二：（1）海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平？（2）海底捞的股价能否重振？它们其实并不是同一个问题，两者的答案也不会同步到来。\n1、翻台率危机？其实是客流量危机\n海底捞被市场讨论最多的关键指标是翻台率。\n餐馆提升翻台率的方法无非两点：一，缩短顾客用餐时间；二，提升顾客等位意愿。吃火锅，吃的就是时间，海底捞维护翻台率的重心显然在于第二点。\n众所周知，海底捞开创出一整套安抚等位顾客的增值服务，餐饮界多年来无人能出其右。那么，关于海底捞翻台率下滑的初步结论恐怕是：不是来了的顾客不愿意等，而是没有那么多顾客到来。\n我们可以使用公司财报中的“餐厅总收入”和“顾客人均消费”这两项数据，来简单计算一下海底捞的顾客就餐人次。\n2019年、2020年，海底捞餐厅在一线城市的收入分别是64.81625亿元、59.30587亿元，一线城市的顾客人均消费分别为110.1元、116.2元。以“收入”除以“人均消费”可知，2019年，海底捞餐厅在一线城市的顾客人次大约是5887万人，而2020年的数据是5103.8万人，同比减少了大约13%。\n\n根据地理区域划分的海底捞餐厅经营收入（数据表格截取自公司财报）\n\n海底捞餐厅关键表现指标（数据表格截取自公司财报）\n至2020年末，海底捞经营餐厅总数为1298家，较2019年的768家同比增加接近70%。而据财报，2020年全年，海底捞餐厅服务顾客超2.5亿人次，较2019年的2.44亿人次同比增长仅约2.5%。\n同时，海底捞2020年新开餐厅的翻台率仅为2.8，较2019年的4.1下降了超过30%。\n而摩根士丹利在近期报告中透露，2021年4月，海底捞旗下餐厅翻台率低于3，较3月环比下跌，仅为2019年同期水平的约70%。\n参照来看，虽然该公司的开店速度基本符合市场预估，且低线城市的收入规模有可观的同比增长，但是，投资者有理由怀疑，不断增加新店数量能为海底捞带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n4月，“17元吃海底捞”的微博热搜话题表明，海底捞并没丧失主流大众的关注和好感。但更实际的问题是：顾客还喜欢你，他们只是不去吃你了。\n那么，顾客去了哪里？\n2、替代品多样化，火锅赛道海太红了\n要讨论海底捞的翻台率和股价能否重回上升轨道，首先需要更新对火锅市场的认知。\n中国饭店协会和NCBD（餐宝典）的数据显示，2019年，中国火锅市场的总收入规模达到了9600亿元，2020年，该数字预计已回落至2018年的水平，大约8800亿元。\n自2018年以来，早有多方预测指出，火锅将是一个万亿级别的市场；在创投界，这被当作是下注该赛道的主要依据之一；创业新锐、传统名企、娱乐明星，都在开火锅店……\n\n但对于二级市场的具体公司来说，万亿级规模的意义，并不像看上去那么大。原因在于，火锅市场的集中度其实非常低。中商产业研究院2020年的数据显示，中国火锅市场的CR5仅为5.5%。吃火锅的需求被碎片化地瓜分，龙头之外，参与者众——\n品类与品牌创新不断。小龙坎和谭鸭血在口味和体验上挑战了海底捞；呷哺呷哺谋求提升客单价（且不论成功与否）；懒熊火锅在2月份获得了近亿元A轮融资。潮汕牛肉锅、滇式火锅、酸汤鱼、椰子鸡……数年来各自从原产地向全国传播。\n火锅底料和调料行业升温。招商证券5月发表的《底料风暴：火锅底料产业深度报告》指出，切入C端的火锅品牌和扩张品类的传统调味品企业正使该行业竞争日益激烈。而辣味成瘾性和懒人经济，驱动了该行业在家庭端的增长加速。报告中涉及的上市公司包括颐海国际、天味食品、海天味业等。\n火锅食材超市兴起。盒马鲜生推出“火锅季”；每日优鲜、叮咚买菜等电商发力；安井食品等趁机提升速冻食材或预制菜的市占率。\n跨界尝试频现。蒙牛、国美入局；良品铺子和三只松鼠在做自嗨锅；连B站都来掺合，2021年3月，哔哩哔哩在上海为其纪录片《生活如沸》开了一家官方体验店。\n新冠疫情促进了宅家吃火锅习惯的培养，连设计和功能优化的新潮小家电也在推波助澜。\n凡此种种，海底捞当然多有参与，也取得了可见的增长，但这些业务在其总收入中占比很小，不足以弥补公司整体业务核心指标的下滑。以外卖为例，2020年，海底捞外卖业务收入从2019年的4.48亿元上升到7.17亿元，同比增长了60%；但在收入占比方面，仅从1.7%上升至2.5%。\n这里要重申前文的观点，火锅红海的颜色如此之深，海底捞继续开店的策略即使奏效，边际效用也难以达到早年的水平。\n对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的不是增速，而是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n并不是说，以上列举的事项，能从根本上破坏更具社交功能和仪式感的到店正餐火锅市场——如前所述，它们本来就很分散，而是说，替代品的多样化在抑制海底捞等行业龙头的再成长。\n因为基数已经很高。来自美团点评的数据显示，截至2020年，在中国的正餐市场中，火锅的占比超过13%，已经是其中份额最高的细分品类。我们不能过于乐观地认为，市场的总需求还能高速扩张，或是火锅品类的占比仍能大幅提升。\n还有一种离得稍远的可能性是，隐性竞争还来自隔壁行业。\n在“网红”这个词还没泛滥的岁月里，海底捞曾经就是网红界的魁首。商业界在传阅《海底捞你学不会》，好朋友们热衷于结伴体验有求必应和无微不至。海底捞的服务品质，几乎成为本世纪10年代的都市传说。\n到如今，这届年轻人把“排队”这件事献给了奶茶和其他网红店。NCBD的数据显示，年轻女性迄今仍是火锅消费的主要人群；2020年，中国火锅消费者的女性占比是57.1%；其中26—30岁占比30.1%，18—25岁占比28.1%。不严谨地推测一下，在实际消费场景中，跟火锅店争夺等位顾客的业态之多，远胜于十年前。\n等位就等海底捞的消费者偏好有所淡化。由美甲和小零食组成的增值套餐不再新奇。更关键的是，作为核心竞争力的极致服务体验，随着顾客的逐渐脱敏和阈值抬升，魔力也在衰变。至此，我们还未讨论菜单涨价等问题造成的顾客满意度下降。\n3、海底捞还会好吗\n2020年，海底捞的策略是逢低拾取优质店铺，全年净增530家门店。其中，在中国大陆一线城市净增65家，上升至255家，同比增34%，增速放缓；二线城市净增167家，同比增约50%；三线城市净增257家，同比增约132%。2021年，截至3月末，该公司新签约门店91家，加上去年已签约、未开业的店面，预计2021年全年的开店数量仍将在500家以上。\n2020年全年，海底捞营收仍有7.8%的同比增长，达到286亿元。而净利润同比下降86%，为3.1亿元。经营成本方面，原材料及易耗品成本同比上升了9.1%；由于业务扩张和薪资水平提高，员工成本同比上升了21.1%。折旧及摊销同比上升了60.4%。\n海底捞的财报亦指出，公司财务成本从2019年的人民币2.368亿元上升到2020年的人民币4.456亿元，同比增长了88.2%，主要由租赁负债利息和银行借款利息增加所致。在疫情中经营停摆、现金流枯萎的情况下，海底捞借入了大额款项来支撑逆势扩店。截至2020年12月31日，其银行借款为39.894亿元。\n海底捞还会好吗？这个提问还要一分为二。（1）海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平？（2）海底捞的股价能否重振？它们其实并不是同一个问题。\n在经营层面，随着国内疫苗接种进度的深入，火锅店的业绩会随人们的社交习惯恢复进一步复苏。同时，海底捞在低线城市的增长是值得期待的。市场较普遍的观点是，海底捞在恢复，但恢复速度较缓。\n据摩根士丹利的报告，海底捞今年4月的翻台率小于3；需要指出的是，即使是这个被认为不及预期的翻台率，依然要显著高于行业均值。中国饭店协会和NCBD的数据显示，在中国餐饮业中，正餐的翻台率在2.1左右，快餐小吃可以达到8以上，而火锅业态整体的翻台率约为2.3。依据呷哺呷哺的财报，凑凑火锅的翻台率2019年为2.9，2020年降至2.5。换言之，海底捞餐厅在2019年时高达4.8的翻台率，是行业均值的两倍。\n现在的问题，不是海底捞不再优秀，而是关于它能优秀到何种程度、能不断变得更为优秀的预期是否合理。\n所以在股价层面，投资者应该提防其估值中枢下移的可能性。\n在餐饮连锁业态中，星巴克的估值变化历史轨迹可以提供某种参考。在身为新锐、品牌崛起、高速扩张的时期，其市盈率曾持续高于50倍、甚至百倍以上。而高速成长期结束后，其市盈率在20倍乃至以下区间调整、震荡；待公司重回平稳上升的轨道后，星巴克的估值得到很大程度的理性修复，但并未回到高速成长期的水平。\n对想要抄底海底捞的投资者而言，谨慎等待更具确定性的业绩复苏信号，是很有必要的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06862":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194860244,"gmtCreate":1621354245688,"gmtModify":1704356365440,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highl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10:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Real estate tycoons' achievements: Money is hard to make, debts are hard to repay.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100297334","media":"凤凰WEEKLY财经","summary":"2021年刚刚过去的四个月里，碧桂园、万科、恒大、保利、融创这五个大房企，销售规模超过了1万亿。\n对于全年的目标，龙头房企不再像几年前一样高调渲染，毕竟在房地产行业的关键转折点，安全行驶大于天。\n恒大","content":"<p>In the last four months of 2021,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>The five major real estate companies—Vanke, Evergrande, Poly, and Sunac—have sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan.</b>。</p><p>Leading real estate companies are no longer exaggerating their annual targets as high-profile as they did a few years ago, after all...<b>At a critical turning point in the real estate industry, safe driving is paramount.</b>。</p><p>On the occasion of Evergrande's 20th anniversary, Xu Jiayin set a goal at a grand celebration: by 2020, Evergrande's total assets would exceed 3 trillion yuan and its annual real estate sales would exceed 600 billion yuan.</p><p>It is said that there were 1,800 guests sitting in the audience at the time, including Xu Jiayin's \"benefactors\" and the four major families of Hong Kong.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>Group Chairman Cheng Ka-shun, has<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01105\">Sing Island</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp.</a>Chairman He Zhuguo, has<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Jack Ma, as well as Yang Guoqiang, chairman of Country Garden Group, and other political figures,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>A group of big shots in the real estate industry. Even the gala that night was broadcast live on many satellite TV stations.</p><p>It was 2016, and Xu Jiayin was beaming with joy. Evergrande defeated Vanke and sat down.<b>The world's number one real estate company</b>The issue of returning to the A-share market through a backdoor listing with Shenzhen Real Estate was also put on the agenda at the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bac52f2402d1960987bd2ae44736268\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2016 may have been the best year for the real estate market in recent years.</p><p>That year, many benchmark real estate companies invested record-breaking amounts of money in land, with the sales of the top 100 real estate companies increasing by 53% year-on-year. In a later public occasion,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>Board Chairman Sun Hongbin said that when land was cheap, money was expensive; when money was expensive, land was cheap. Only in 2016 was both money and land cheap. We must seize the opportunity at this time.</b>。</p><p>Many real estate companies seized this opportunity, and it was in the two or three years that these dark horses tasted...<b>The brave will die of overeating, the timid will starve to death.</b>The taste of happiness, the sound of the charge horn so loud that you can't hear \"Housing is for living in, not for speculation\".</p><p>They didn't realize that the ever-increasing leverage would turn into a mountain in 2020, bursting those huge bubbles.</p><p>In the second half of last year, regulatory authorities pulled out a series of<b>The three sharp swords of \"three red lines, centralized loan management, and dual concentration of land\"</b>It hangs over the heads of all real estate companies. They had no choice but to grit their teeth and turn it over, or to be eliminated.</p><p><b>Evergrande, which had over 100 billion yuan in cash in 2016, did not have total assets exceeding 3 trillion yuan in 2020. In September, it was also embroiled in rumors of a broken capital chain, and its plans to return to the A-share market were ruined.</b></p><p>A number of large-scale real estate companies are struggling with financial difficulties, while another group is overwhelmed by debt.</p><p>Vanke opened its annual report with the phrase \"2020 marks the end of an era and the beginning of another.\"<b>Vanke Group Chairman Yu LiangYu Liang</b>At the earnings release conference, he said,<b>Opportunities are no longer readily available.</b>”。</p><p>The extraordinary year of 2020 proved the firm commitment to \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\". For developers, the road ahead is not as clear as before. How to get through this period of industry adjustment has become a question of survival, a black-and-white situation. But what happened after the hill?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9e0d5a7ded9b9433251f10c9383f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Money is the hardest thing to earn</b></p><p>After August 26, 2016, the phrase \"Xiamen has gone crazy\" was copied and pasted on many occasions.</p><p>A chart titled \"Price Forecast of Xiamen's Housing Market in the Next Year After the August 26 Land Auction\" has circulated online, showing that in some areas, housing prices will jump from more than 10,000 yuan to 40,000 yuan a year later.</p><p>That year's Hurun Global Housing Price Increase List<b>Xiamen's housing price increase of 45.5% ranked second in the world, followed by Hefei's 48.4% increase.</b>。 The overwhelming expectation of price increases has given real estate companies the courage to spare no expense. The names of land kings include real estate companies of varying sizes such as Vanke, Poly, Sunac, Rongqiao, Tahoe, Rongxin, and Yuzhou.</p><p>The truth is,<b>When these record-breaking land projects were launched one after another in 2019-2020, the vast majority were losing money.</b>。 Rongqiao Group, one of the land kings on August 26, acquired a plot of land in Xiang'an District, Xiamen for a total price of 4.218 billion yuan. The floor price was 38,345 yuan/㎡, with a premium rate of 140%. When it opened for sale in March 2019, the average price was only 37,500 yuan/㎡.</p><p>This situation is not unique to Xiamen; Hefei and Nanjing are also severely affected areas. As Sun Hongbin said, when money and land are cheap, everyone wants to seize the opportunity.</p><p><b>At the time, no one expected that the real estate regulation that would begin would last so long and be so intense.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0205eaf7eaae908fc8dfb84c7c20fb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The original plan to have both the fish and the bear's paw turned into choosing the lesser of two evils.<b>Only by sacrificing profits to ensure sales can we obtain valuable funds and \"survive\". \"Survive\"</b>This was the theme of Vanke Chairman Yu Liang in the autumn of 2018, and it became the real state of the real estate industry after 2019.</p><p>According to statistics from the China Index<b>2020 year</b>The top 100 companies achieved sales exceeding 10 trillion yuan, with total sales and sales area increasing by 12.8% and 11.6% year-on-year, respectively. Based on the data,<b>The top 100 companies maintained growth in revenue and net profit, but the average net profit margin and return on equity (ROE) decreased by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, respectively.</b></p><p>Ping An Securities' report confirms this trend.<b>In 2020, the revenue of A-share listed real estate companies increased by 10.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 15.6% year-on-year.</b>，<b>The growth rates decreased by 9.1 and 27.2 percentage points respectively compared to 2019.</b>。 With the gradual transfer of high-priced land from 2017 to 2018, listed real estate companies in 2020...<b>Overall gross profit margin fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year.</b>。</p><p>Even leading real estate companies that are more resilient to risks inevitably experience a decline in their various profitability indicators.</p><p>wind data shows,<b>The gross profit margins of Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac all declined year by year from 2018 to 2020.</b>Apart from Evergrande, the other three companies all showed significant progress last year.</p><p><b>The trend is almost the same in terms of return on equity (ROE).</b>Evergrande, in particular, saw its return on net assets fall to single digits last year, to only 5.52%, compared to 12.4% and 30.18% in 2019 and 2018, respectively.</p><p>The sales revenue generated by squeezing profits is also much lower than the growth rate of previous years.</p><p>Although Country Garden, Evergrande, and Vanke all have assets exceeding 700 billion yuan, and Sunac and Poly have assets exceeding 500 billion yuan, the underlying story is...<b>Evergrande failed to meet its 800 billion yuan internal sales target, Sunac was more than 20 billion yuan short of its 600 billion yuan target, and Poly took a year to surpass 500 billion yuan.</b>。</p><p>Of course, this achievement was achieved under multiple pressures, including the combination of the pandemic and regulations, which is already quite remarkable for real estate companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac93aac14ca536de99c6e7a7bd4ddf3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Debt is the hardest to repay</b></p><p>If we had to find a key turning point for the collective shift in the real estate market, it would be the new \"three red lines\" financing regulations that circulated online in August 2020.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2018, many leading real estate companies had already realized the changing market trend and stepped on the brakes, stating that they would reduce their debt, no longer pursue scale, and instead pursue high-quality development.</p><p>However, even the most thorough psychological preparation will catch you off guard when the ultimatum arrives.</p><p>Last August, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium in Beijing with 12 key real estate companies, including Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac. At this meeting, regulators...<b>Three red lines</b>It was taken out.</p><p>Excluding advance receipts, the debt-to-asset ratio is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the cash-to-short-term-debt ratio is less than 1. For each of these three indicators, the ceiling for the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities is lower by 5%. If all three are met, interest-bearing liabilities cannot increase. Even if none of them is met, it will increase by a maximum of 15% per year. Real estate companies have only a little over four months left, and it will be implemented on January 1, 2021.</p><p>For real estate, a typical highly indebted industry, this is...<b>A bolt from the blue</b>It's not excessive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008c088e739868e777c107f9573db850\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At that time, Guosheng Securities conducted calculations based on the \"three red lines\" standard. Based on the data at the end of 2019, among the top 50 real estate companies in terms of sales, 11 companies did not exceed the warning line, 15 companies exceeded one warning line, 8 companies exceeded two warning lines, and 15 companies exceeded three warning lines.</p><p>The 12 companies participating in the conference were Evergrande, Sunac, Greenland,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02772\">Zhongliang Holdings</a>All three red lines were crossed.</p><p>Following the release of their annual reports, many real estate companies have improved in these three indicators, ranging from accelerating sales to acquiring less land, coupled with bond issuance, private placements, and various financial methods.<b>Over the past five months, real estate companies have racked their brains to reduce debt.</b>。</p><p>However, not all pitfalls can be fixed.</p><p>The last day of April,<b>Many media outlets received a message from a homeowner in Tahoe Group claiming 1 million yuan, stating that their building was unfinished and there had been no progress.</b>However, according to Tahoe's annual report, the actual completion progress reached 86.57%. \"We only ask that you conduct on-site interviews and investigations before writing or publishing the article to understand the truth of the matter.\"</p><p>According to Tahoe's annual report, its operating revenue in 2020 was 3.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.7%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -4.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1171.83%;</p><p>The top 20 real estate companies, which once had annual sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, have fallen into a severe debt crisis, with high leverage and high premiums.<b>The \"land king harvester\" ultimately reaped its own rewards.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8430ba75e6e897473815a4e97992cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sichuan-based real estate companies with assets<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600466\">Blu-ray development</a></b>Liu Xu (pseudonym), a staff member in a certain area, has been listening to his colleagues exchange the latest developments on their \"acquisition\" every day on his way to work, discussing various possibilities for a new employer.<b>Whether it's Sunac or OCT, both are better than they are now.</b>”。</p><p>On April 7, Liu Xu was even a little disappointed when he heard the senior management say that \"they will not relinquish their controlling stake in the company.\" Should he look for other companies? He considered his way out.</p><p>Both partners, who rushed forward blindly, revealed their true colors as the tide receded after the real estate market changed direction. After successively selling off its biopharmaceutical and property management divisions, Blu-ray is trying to make the ending less sad.</p><p><b>A lever can carry a boat, but it can also capsize it.</b>Many real estate companies only truly understood this principle last year.</p><p><b>The road ahead is the hardest to predict.</b></p><p>At the 2018 interim results press conference, Sun Hongbin said, \"There is no need to diversify if the main business is doing well. Only companies with problems should diversify.\"</p><p>Although Vanke, the older brother, didn't say it was as \"internet-famous,\" it expressed similar meanings almost at the same time, with \"survival\" as the ultimate goal, and its specific business operations were \"convergence\" and \"focus.\"</p><p>That year, Country Garden began its foray into the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In this industry, Evergrande is preparing to \"build cars,\" and then has invested in countless small targets.</p><p>but<b>Two years later, everyone walked the same path.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5912022b0543f14fcee208b525f1e9a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Sun Hongbin</b>Busy with discussions with local government officials regarding culture, tourism, healthcare, and wellness, they have also developed a conference and exhibition sector through large-scale acquisitions. The property management company, which had previously mentioned not being listed, also followed the trend and listed on the Hong Kong stock market last year.<b>In the end, he lived the life he had once despised.</b>。</p><p><b>Vanke has also begun disclosing diversified performance reports in its financial reports.</b>The development speed is visible, but it is negligible compared to the real estate business, which accounts for more than 95%.</p><p>It's not just Vanke; real estate companies that seek a \"second growth curve\" when they anticipate changes in the real estate market environment are currently doing the same.</p><p><b>Country Garden's robots are making less and less noise.</b>It only occasionally releases data on a certain number of patents, a certain number of PhDs, and short videos and photos of robots walking around in its \"experimental field\".</p><p><b>Evergrande's automotive business is thriving, with its stock price constantly hitting new highs.</b>Even before a single car has been built, the company aims to achieve production and sales of 1 million vehicles within four years—2025—and 5 million vehicles by 2035, with the goal of becoming the world's largest and strongest new energy vehicle group.</p><p>The key point is,<b>Xu Jiayin, who once said that \"the real estate industry will always be a sunrise industry for Evergrande,\" announced in 2021 that he would become a world-class technology company.</b>。</p><p>Whether they like it or not, the difficulties are numerous or not, and the road ahead is bumpy or not. Leading real estate companies have all embarked on the path of diversification. This may be interpreted from another perspective: the road to real estate is no easier than those.</p><p>Many people working in real estate companies sigh first when talking about the future, their words revealing boundless pessimism.<b>The tide has turned</b>\"More than one person used this word.\"</p><p>For someone who is struggling to climb a hill, it is difficult to predict whether the hill will be higher or wider.</p><p>Only outsiders can see it.</p><p>In March this year,<b>Ren Zeping, the renowned economist Xu Jiayin once poached for 15 million yuan annually, has returned to the capital market.</b>His role changed from Chief Economist of Evergrande Group and Dean of Evergrande Economic Research Institute to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Dongwu Securities</a>The chief economist received a significant reduction in annual salary.</p><p>“<b>Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term.</b>This \"law\" was proposed by him.</p><p>At the first macro strategy report meeting in April, he said,<b>Real estate is the hardest bubble in China's economy</b>。</p><p>\"The fundamental problem with China's real estate market is the mismatch between people and land and the excessive money supply in the past.\"</p><p>He believes there is still a solution to all of this, saying, \"We still have a window of opportunity of ten years left.\"</p>","source":"lsy1598401734913","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal estate tycoons' achievements: Money is hard to make, debts are hard to repay.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">凤凰WEEKLY财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-14 10:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the last four months of 2021,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">Country Garden</a>The five major real estate companies—Vanke, Evergrande, Poly, and Sunac—have sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan.</b>。</p><p>Leading real estate companies are no longer exaggerating their annual targets as high-profile as they did a few years ago, after all...<b>At a critical turning point in the real estate industry, safe driving is paramount.</b>。</p><p>On the occasion of Evergrande's 20th anniversary, Xu Jiayin set a goal at a grand celebration: by 2020, Evergrande's total assets would exceed 3 trillion yuan and its annual real estate sales would exceed 600 billion yuan.</p><p>It is said that there were 1,800 guests sitting in the audience at the time, including Xu Jiayin's \"benefactors\" and the four major families of Hong Kong.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>Group Chairman Cheng Ka-shun, has<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01105\">Sing Island</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWS\">News Corp.</a>Chairman He Zhuguo, has<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>Jack Ma, as well as Yang Guoqiang, chairman of Country Garden Group, and other political figures,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">Financial world</a>A group of big shots in the real estate industry. Even the gala that night was broadcast live on many satellite TV stations.</p><p>It was 2016, and Xu Jiayin was beaming with joy. Evergrande defeated Vanke and sat down.<b>The world's number one real estate company</b>The issue of returning to the A-share market through a backdoor listing with Shenzhen Real Estate was also put on the agenda at the end of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bac52f2402d1960987bd2ae44736268\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>2016 may have been the best year for the real estate market in recent years.</p><p>That year, many benchmark real estate companies invested record-breaking amounts of money in land, with the sales of the top 100 real estate companies increasing by 53% year-on-year. In a later public occasion,<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01918\">Sunac China</a>Board Chairman Sun Hongbin said that when land was cheap, money was expensive; when money was expensive, land was cheap. Only in 2016 was both money and land cheap. We must seize the opportunity at this time.</b>。</p><p>Many real estate companies seized this opportunity, and it was in the two or three years that these dark horses tasted...<b>The brave will die of overeating, the timid will starve to death.</b>The taste of happiness, the sound of the charge horn so loud that you can't hear \"Housing is for living in, not for speculation\".</p><p>They didn't realize that the ever-increasing leverage would turn into a mountain in 2020, bursting those huge bubbles.</p><p>In the second half of last year, regulatory authorities pulled out a series of<b>The three sharp swords of \"three red lines, centralized loan management, and dual concentration of land\"</b>It hangs over the heads of all real estate companies. They had no choice but to grit their teeth and turn it over, or to be eliminated.</p><p><b>Evergrande, which had over 100 billion yuan in cash in 2016, did not have total assets exceeding 3 trillion yuan in 2020. In September, it was also embroiled in rumors of a broken capital chain, and its plans to return to the A-share market were ruined.</b></p><p>A number of large-scale real estate companies are struggling with financial difficulties, while another group is overwhelmed by debt.</p><p>Vanke opened its annual report with the phrase \"2020 marks the end of an era and the beginning of another.\"<b>Vanke Group Chairman Yu LiangYu Liang</b>At the earnings release conference, he said,<b>Opportunities are no longer readily available.</b>”。</p><p>The extraordinary year of 2020 proved the firm commitment to \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\". For developers, the road ahead is not as clear as before. How to get through this period of industry adjustment has become a question of survival, a black-and-white situation. But what happened after the hill?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66f9e0d5a7ded9b9433251f10c9383f9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"703\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Money is the hardest thing to earn</b></p><p>After August 26, 2016, the phrase \"Xiamen has gone crazy\" was copied and pasted on many occasions.</p><p>A chart titled \"Price Forecast of Xiamen's Housing Market in the Next Year After the August 26 Land Auction\" has circulated online, showing that in some areas, housing prices will jump from more than 10,000 yuan to 40,000 yuan a year later.</p><p>That year's Hurun Global Housing Price Increase List<b>Xiamen's housing price increase of 45.5% ranked second in the world, followed by Hefei's 48.4% increase.</b>。 The overwhelming expectation of price increases has given real estate companies the courage to spare no expense. The names of land kings include real estate companies of varying sizes such as Vanke, Poly, Sunac, Rongqiao, Tahoe, Rongxin, and Yuzhou.</p><p>The truth is,<b>When these record-breaking land projects were launched one after another in 2019-2020, the vast majority were losing money.</b>。 Rongqiao Group, one of the land kings on August 26, acquired a plot of land in Xiang'an District, Xiamen for a total price of 4.218 billion yuan. The floor price was 38,345 yuan/㎡, with a premium rate of 140%. When it opened for sale in March 2019, the average price was only 37,500 yuan/㎡.</p><p>This situation is not unique to Xiamen; Hefei and Nanjing are also severely affected areas. As Sun Hongbin said, when money and land are cheap, everyone wants to seize the opportunity.</p><p><b>At the time, no one expected that the real estate regulation that would begin would last so long and be so intense.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0205eaf7eaae908fc8dfb84c7c20fb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The original plan to have both the fish and the bear's paw turned into choosing the lesser of two evils.<b>Only by sacrificing profits to ensure sales can we obtain valuable funds and \"survive\". \"Survive\"</b>This was the theme of Vanke Chairman Yu Liang in the autumn of 2018, and it became the real state of the real estate industry after 2019.</p><p>According to statistics from the China Index<b>2020 year</b>The top 100 companies achieved sales exceeding 10 trillion yuan, with total sales and sales area increasing by 12.8% and 11.6% year-on-year, respectively. Based on the data,<b>The top 100 companies maintained growth in revenue and net profit, but the average net profit margin and return on equity (ROE) decreased by 0.7 and 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, respectively.</b></p><p>Ping An Securities' report confirms this trend.<b>In 2020, the revenue of A-share listed real estate companies increased by 10.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 15.6% year-on-year.</b>，<b>The growth rates decreased by 9.1 and 27.2 percentage points respectively compared to 2019.</b>。 With the gradual transfer of high-priced land from 2017 to 2018, listed real estate companies in 2020...<b>Overall gross profit margin fell by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year.</b>。</p><p>Even leading real estate companies that are more resilient to risks inevitably experience a decline in their various profitability indicators.</p><p>wind data shows,<b>The gross profit margins of Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac all declined year by year from 2018 to 2020.</b>Apart from Evergrande, the other three companies all showed significant progress last year.</p><p><b>The trend is almost the same in terms of return on equity (ROE).</b>Evergrande, in particular, saw its return on net assets fall to single digits last year, to only 5.52%, compared to 12.4% and 30.18% in 2019 and 2018, respectively.</p><p>The sales revenue generated by squeezing profits is also much lower than the growth rate of previous years.</p><p>Although Country Garden, Evergrande, and Vanke all have assets exceeding 700 billion yuan, and Sunac and Poly have assets exceeding 500 billion yuan, the underlying story is...<b>Evergrande failed to meet its 800 billion yuan internal sales target, Sunac was more than 20 billion yuan short of its 600 billion yuan target, and Poly took a year to surpass 500 billion yuan.</b>。</p><p>Of course, this achievement was achieved under multiple pressures, including the combination of the pandemic and regulations, which is already quite remarkable for real estate companies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac93aac14ca536de99c6e7a7bd4ddf3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Debt is the hardest to repay</b></p><p>If we had to find a key turning point for the collective shift in the real estate market, it would be the new \"three red lines\" financing regulations that circulated online in August 2020.</p><p>In fact, as early as 2018, many leading real estate companies had already realized the changing market trend and stepped on the brakes, stating that they would reduce their debt, no longer pursue scale, and instead pursue high-quality development.</p><p>However, even the most thorough psychological preparation will catch you off guard when the ultimatum arrives.</p><p>Last August, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium in Beijing with 12 key real estate companies, including Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, and Sunac. At this meeting, regulators...<b>Three red lines</b>It was taken out.</p><p>Excluding advance receipts, the debt-to-asset ratio is greater than 70%, the net debt ratio is greater than 100%, and the cash-to-short-term-debt ratio is less than 1. For each of these three indicators, the ceiling for the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities is lower by 5%. If all three are met, interest-bearing liabilities cannot increase. Even if none of them is met, it will increase by a maximum of 15% per year. Real estate companies have only a little over four months left, and it will be implemented on January 1, 2021.</p><p>For real estate, a typical highly indebted industry, this is...<b>A bolt from the blue</b>It's not excessive.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/008c088e739868e777c107f9573db850\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At that time, Guosheng Securities conducted calculations based on the \"three red lines\" standard. Based on the data at the end of 2019, among the top 50 real estate companies in terms of sales, 11 companies did not exceed the warning line, 15 companies exceeded one warning line, 8 companies exceeded two warning lines, and 15 companies exceeded three warning lines.</p><p>The 12 companies participating in the conference were Evergrande, Sunac, Greenland,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02772\">Zhongliang Holdings</a>All three red lines were crossed.</p><p>Following the release of their annual reports, many real estate companies have improved in these three indicators, ranging from accelerating sales to acquiring less land, coupled with bond issuance, private placements, and various financial methods.<b>Over the past five months, real estate companies have racked their brains to reduce debt.</b>。</p><p>However, not all pitfalls can be fixed.</p><p>The last day of April,<b>Many media outlets received a message from a homeowner in Tahoe Group claiming 1 million yuan, stating that their building was unfinished and there had been no progress.</b>However, according to Tahoe's annual report, the actual completion progress reached 86.57%. \"We only ask that you conduct on-site interviews and investigations before writing or publishing the article to understand the truth of the matter.\"</p><p>According to Tahoe's annual report, its operating revenue in 2020 was 3.615 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.7%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -4.999 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1171.83%;</p><p>The top 20 real estate companies, which once had annual sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, have fallen into a severe debt crisis, with high leverage and high premiums.<b>The \"land king harvester\" ultimately reaped its own rewards.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8430ba75e6e897473815a4e97992cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sichuan-based real estate companies with assets<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600466\">Blu-ray development</a></b>Liu Xu (pseudonym), a staff member in a certain area, has been listening to his colleagues exchange the latest developments on their \"acquisition\" every day on his way to work, discussing various possibilities for a new employer.<b>Whether it's Sunac or OCT, both are better than they are now.</b>”。</p><p>On April 7, Liu Xu was even a little disappointed when he heard the senior management say that \"they will not relinquish their controlling stake in the company.\" Should he look for other companies? He considered his way out.</p><p>Both partners, who rushed forward blindly, revealed their true colors as the tide receded after the real estate market changed direction. After successively selling off its biopharmaceutical and property management divisions, Blu-ray is trying to make the ending less sad.</p><p><b>A lever can carry a boat, but it can also capsize it.</b>Many real estate companies only truly understood this principle last year.</p><p><b>The road ahead is the hardest to predict.</b></p><p>At the 2018 interim results press conference, Sun Hongbin said, \"There is no need to diversify if the main business is doing well. Only companies with problems should diversify.\"</p><p>Although Vanke, the older brother, didn't say it was as \"internet-famous,\" it expressed similar meanings almost at the same time, with \"survival\" as the ultimate goal, and its specific business operations were \"convergence\" and \"focus.\"</p><p>That year, Country Garden began its foray into the market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>In this industry, Evergrande is preparing to \"build cars,\" and then has invested in countless small targets.</p><p>but<b>Two years later, everyone walked the same path.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5912022b0543f14fcee208b525f1e9a\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"718\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Sun Hongbin</b>Busy with discussions with local government officials regarding culture, tourism, healthcare, and wellness, they have also developed a conference and exhibition sector through large-scale acquisitions. The property management company, which had previously mentioned not being listed, also followed the trend and listed on the Hong Kong stock market last year.<b>In the end, he lived the life he had once despised.</b>。</p><p><b>Vanke has also begun disclosing diversified performance reports in its financial reports.</b>The development speed is visible, but it is negligible compared to the real estate business, which accounts for more than 95%.</p><p>It's not just Vanke; real estate companies that seek a \"second growth curve\" when they anticipate changes in the real estate market environment are currently doing the same.</p><p><b>Country Garden's robots are making less and less noise.</b>It only occasionally releases data on a certain number of patents, a certain number of PhDs, and short videos and photos of robots walking around in its \"experimental field\".</p><p><b>Evergrande's automotive business is thriving, with its stock price constantly hitting new highs.</b>Even before a single car has been built, the company aims to achieve production and sales of 1 million vehicles within four years—2025—and 5 million vehicles by 2035, with the goal of becoming the world's largest and strongest new energy vehicle group.</p><p>The key point is,<b>Xu Jiayin, who once said that \"the real estate industry will always be a sunrise industry for Evergrande,\" announced in 2021 that he would become a world-class technology company.</b>。</p><p>Whether they like it or not, the difficulties are numerous or not, and the road ahead is bumpy or not. Leading real estate companies have all embarked on the path of diversification. This may be interpreted from another perspective: the road to real estate is no easier than those.</p><p>Many people working in real estate companies sigh first when talking about the future, their words revealing boundless pessimism.<b>The tide has turned</b>\"More than one person used this word.\"</p><p>For someone who is struggling to climb a hill, it is difficult to predict whether the hill will be higher or wider.</p><p>Only outsiders can see it.</p><p>In March this year,<b>Ren Zeping, the renowned economist Xu Jiayin once poached for 15 million yuan annually, has returned to the capital market.</b>His role changed from Chief Economist of Evergrande Group and Dean of Evergrande Economic Research Institute to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">Dongwu Securities</a>The chief economist received a significant reduction in annual salary.</p><p>“<b>Real estate depends on population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term.</b>This \"law\" was proposed by him.</p><p>At the first macro strategy report meeting in April, he said,<b>Real estate is the hardest bubble in China's economy</b>。</p><p>\"The fundamental problem with China's real estate market is the mismatch between people and land and the excessive money supply in the past.\"</p><p>He believes there is still a solution to all of this, saying, \"We still have a window of opportunity of ten years left.\"</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8YRg4e1Qo0C2q6RAi_2SA\">凤凰WEEKLY财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00b7d70423af402de8fcef957dcb2900","relate_stocks":{"600048":"保利发展","02007":"碧桂园","01918":"融创中国","000002":"万科A"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/x8YRg4e1Qo0C2q6RAi_2SA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100297334","content_text":"2021年刚刚过去的四个月里，碧桂园、万科、恒大、保利、融创这五个大房企，销售规模超过了1万亿。\n对于全年的目标，龙头房企不再像几年前一样高调渲染，毕竟在房地产行业的关键转折点，安全行驶大于天。\n恒大20周年的时候，许家印在声势浩大的庆典上立下目标，2020年恒大总资产超3万亿，房地产年销售规模超6000亿。\n据说当时台下坐着1800位嘉宾，有许家印的“贵人”、香港四大家族新世界集团主席郑家纯，有星岛新闻集团主席何柱国，有阿里巴巴马云，还有碧桂园集团主席杨国强等等政界、金融界、地产界的一众大佬。就连那晚的文艺晚会，很多卫视都直播了。\n那是2016年，许家印满面红光。恒大打下万科，坐上世界第一房企的宝座，借壳深深房回A的事也在年底提上了日程。\n\n2016年或许是这几年房地产最好的时候。\n那一年，不少标杆房企砸在土地上的钱创出历年新高，百强房企的销售额同比增长了53%。后来的一次公开场合，融创中国董事会主席孙宏斌说，地便宜的时候钱贵，钱贵的时候地便宜，只有2016年，钱和地都便宜，这个时候要抓住机会。\n这个机会很多房企抓住了，正是在那之后的两三年时间，黑马们尝到了“撑死胆大的，饿死胆小的”的幸福滋味，冲锋号的声音大到听不清“房住不炒”。\n他们并没有意识到，那些越跳越高的资金杠杆，会在2020年变成一座山，把那些巨大的泡沫挤破。\n去年下半年，监管部门一连拔出了“三道红线、贷款集中管理、土地双集中”三把利剑，悬在所有房企的头顶。他们没有选择，要么咬牙翻过去，要么出局。\n2016年手里还有超过千亿现金的恒大，在2020年总资产并没有超过3万亿，还在9月陷入资金链断裂传闻，回A股的事也吹了。\n一批规模房企在资金困境中挣扎，另外一批被债务淹没。\n万科在年报中用了“2020年是一个时代的落幕，也是一个时代的开启”作为开篇，万科集团董事会主席郁亮郁亮在业绩发布会上说，“机会不再是唾手可得”。\n特殊的2020年证明了“房住不炒”的坚定。对于开发商来说，路途不似以往明朗。如何渡过这一段行业调整期，成为一道关乎存亡的判断题，非黑即白。只是，越过山丘之后，又是什么呢？\n\n钱，最难赚\n2016年8月26日过后，“厦门疯了”这句话，被复制粘贴在很多场合。\n网上流传了一幅“8.26土拍后，厦门楼市未来1年价格预测图”，有区域一年后的房价，直接从1万多跳到4万。\n那一年的胡润全球房价涨幅榜，厦门房价涨幅45.5%排在全球第二，第一是合肥，涨幅48.4%。超强的涨价预期给了房企们不惜代价的勇气，地王的名字里包含了万科、保利、融创、融侨、泰禾、融信、禹洲等规模不等的房企。\n事实是，等到2019-2020年这些地王项目陆续上市的时候，绝大部分都是赔钱的。8.26地王之一的融侨集团以总价42.18亿元拿下的厦门翔安区一地块，楼面价38345元/㎡，溢价率140%，在2019年3月开盘时均价只卖到37500元/㎡。\n这种情况不只发生在厦门，合肥、南京也是重灾区。就像孙宏斌说的，钱也便宜、地也便宜的时候，大家都想抓住机会。\n当时并没有人预估到接下来开始的地产调控会持续这么久，力度这么大。\n\n原本鱼和熊掌都想兼得的打算，变成了两害相权取其轻，牺牲利润保证销量，才能获得宝贵的资金，才能“活下去”。“活下去”，这是万科董事局主席郁亮在2018年秋天的主题词，2019年以后变成房地产行业的真实状态。\n中指研究院统计，2020年，百强企业销售规模超10万亿，销售总额、销售面积同比分别增长了12.8%和11.6%。从数据来看，百强企业营收与净利润保持增长，但净利润率、净资产收益率（ROE）均值分别同比降低了0.7、1.0个百分点。\n平安证券的报告印证着这样的趋势，2020年A股上市房企营收同比增长10.9%，归母净利润同比下降15.6%，增速比2019年分别下降9.1个、27.2个百分点。随着2017-2018年高价地陆续结转，2020年上市房企整体毛利率同比降了4.6个百分点。\n即便是更能抵抗风险的龙头房企，各项盈利指标也不可避免地走向滑坡。\nwind数据显示，2018-2020年碧桂园、恒大、万科、融创毛利率都逐年下滑，除了恒大，其他三家都在去年有明显体现。\n净资产收益率（ROE）方面几乎是同样的趋势，尤其是恒大，去年净资产收益率跌至个位数，仅5.52%，这一指标在2019年、2018年分别是12.4%和30.18%。\n挤压利润换来的销售额，跟前几年的增速也差了不少。\n虽然碧桂园、恒大、万科全口径都超过了7000亿，融创和保利都超过了5000亿，但背后的故事是，恒大没完成8000亿内部销售目标，融创距离6000亿目标差了200多亿，保利跨过5000亿多花了一年。\n当然，这是在疫情叠加调控等多重压力下实现的成绩，对于房企们来说，已经很不容易。\n\n债，最难还\n如果非要给房地产市场集体转向找一个关键的转折，那便是2020年8月网传的“三道红线”融资新规。\n其实早在2018年，多家龙头房企就已经意识到市场风向的变化，纷纷踩下刹车，表态要把负债降下来，不再追求规模，要高质量发展。\n但是再充分的心理建设，在最后通牒到来的时候，也会措手不及。\n去年8月，住建部和央行在北京跟碧桂园、恒大、万科、融创等12家重点房企开了一次座谈会，这次会上，监管层把三道红线拿了出来。\n剔除预收款后的资产负债率大于70%、净负债率大于100%、现金短债比小于1倍，这三项指标，每踩一条，有息负债增速的天花板就低5%，三条全踩，有息负债就不能增加，即使是一条不踩，每年也最多增15%。留给房企的时间只有4个多月，2021年1月1日就推行。\n这对于典型的高负债行业房地产来讲，说是晴天霹雳并不过分。\n\n当时国盛证券按“三道红线”标准做过测算，以2019年末数据为基准，销售排名前50位的房地产企业中，均未超过警戒线的有11家，超过1条警戒线的有15家，超过2条警戒线的有8家，超过3条警戒线的有15家。\n一起参会的那12家企业，恒大、融创、绿地、中梁控股都是三道红线全踩。\n年报陆续发布后，多家房企的这三项指标有所改善，从加快销售，到少拿地，加上发债、定向增发，还有各种财务手法，过去的5个月内，为了降负债，房企们伤透了脑筋。\n但并不是所有的坑，都有办法弥补。\n4月的最后一天，不少媒体的后台都收到了一份100万泰禾业主的留言，他们买的楼烂尾了，并没有任何进展，但在泰禾的年报中现实完工进度却达86.57%，“只求您写稿、发稿前，去实地采访调查，了解事情真相。”\n根据泰禾的年报，2020年营业收入是36.15亿元，同比下降84.7%；归属上市公司股东的净利润为-49.99亿元，同比下降1171.83%；\n曾经年销售超千亿的20强房企，陷入严重的债务危机，高杠杆、高溢价的“地王收割机”，最终收割了自己。\n\n川系千亿房企蓝光发展某区域的工作人员刘旭（化名），最近每天上班都在听同事们交换着他们“被收购”的最新进展，他们讨论着新东家的各种可能，“不管是融创还是华侨城，哪个都比现在好”。\n4月7日，听到高层说“不会出让公司控股权”，刘旭甚至有点失望，要不要找找其他公司呢？他考虑着自己的出路。\n同样是蒙眼往前冲的伙伴，在地产的风向变换后，随着潮水的褪去现出原形。在陆续把旗下的生物医药和物业板块卖掉后，蓝光正在试着让结局不那么悲伤。\n杠杆能载舟亦能覆舟的道理，很多房企在去年才真正明白。\n前路，最难判断\n2018年中期业绩发布会上，孙宏斌说了一句，“主业做得好没有必要多元化，有问题的公司才做多元化呢。”\n老大哥万科虽然说得没有这么“网红”，但几乎在同一时段，表达了类似的意思，以“活下去”为最终目标，具体的业务操作是“收敛”和“聚焦”。\n那一年，碧桂园开始进军机器人行业，恒大准备“造车”，然后分别把数不清的小目标投了进去。\n但是两年后，大家走上了同一条道路。\n\n孙宏斌忙于跟多个地方的政府官员谈文旅、医疗康养，还通过大笔收购发展出会议会展的板块，说过不上市的物业，也在去年随着大潮登陆港股，最终，他活成了自己当初不屑的样子。\n万科也开始在财报中披露多元化的成绩单，发展速度可见，但跟占据超过95%的房地产主业相比，实在微不足道。\n不止是万科，在预感到房地产氛围变化的时候寻找增长“第二曲线”的房企们，目前来看都是如此。\n碧桂园的机器人动静越来越小，只是偶尔发布一些多少项专利、多少名博士的数据，和一些机器人在自己的”试验田“里走来走去的小视频、照片。\n恒大的汽车倒是风生水起，股价不断创新高，一辆车还没有造出来的情况下，准备在4年内——2025年实现产销100万辆，2035年产销500万辆，目标是世界规模最大、实力最强的新能源汽车集团。\n重点是，曾经说“房地产业对恒大来说永远是朝阳产业”的许家印，在2021年宣布要做世界一流科技企业。\n无论他们想或不想，困难多不多，前路坎坷不坎坷，多元化这条路，龙头房企们都踩了下去，这或许能从另一个角度解读，地产这条路，不会比那些简单。\n不少在房企工作的人，在谈起未来的时候，都先叹一口气，言语中透露出无限悲观，“大势已去”，不止一个人用了这个词。\n对于一个正在艰难爬坡的人，很难预料越过山丘以后，是更高的山，还是更广阔的路。\n只有局外人看得见。\n今年3月，曾经让许家印每年花1500万挖来的知名经济学家任泽平，重新回到资本市场，身份从恒大集团首席经济学家兼恒大经济研究院院长，变成东吴证券首席经济学家，年薪少了一大截。\n“房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融”这条“定律”，就是他提出来的。\n在4月份首场宏观策略报告会上，他说，房地产是中国经济最坚硬的泡沫。\n“中国房地产的根本问题就是人地错配和货币过去的一度超发。”\n而他认为，这一切还有解，“我们还有最后十年的时间窗口。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600048":0.9,"02007":0.9,"03333":0.9,"000002":0.9,"01918":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":129253312,"gmtCreate":1624374757336,"gmtModify":1703834917593,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you very much&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment, thank you very much&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment, thank you very much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129253312","repostId":"1142464181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142464181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624372497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142464181?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Missfresh's pricing range is $13-16 per ADS, with existing shareholders continuing to increase their investments.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142464181","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至","content":"<p>Beijing time, June 22nd evening news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>The F-1 prospectus has been updated, with plans to publicly offer 21 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) at a price range of $13-16 per ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders: CICC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>US long-term fund Davis and others will continue to increase their investments, purchasing up to $90 million worth of ADSs.</p><p>According to the prospectus, Missfresh's net revenue was approximately RMB 3.5467 billion, RMB 6.0014 billion, and RMB 6.1304 billion in 2018, 2018, and 2020, respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Missfresh's net revenue was RMB 1.6898 billion, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, net revenue was RMB 1.5302 billion.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Missfresh's gross profit was RMB 304 million in 2018, increased by 71.3% to RMB 520.9 million in 2019, and increased by another 128.5% to RMB 1.1904 billion in 2020. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Missfresh's gross profit was RMB 510.8 million, compared to RMB 189 million in the same period of 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, Missfresh's net losses were RMB 2.2316 billion, RMB 2.9094 billion, and RMB 1.649.2 billion, respectively. For the quarter ending March 31, 2020, Missfresh reported a net loss of 194.7 million yuan, compared to a loss of 610.3 million yuan in the same period of 2021. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, Missfresh's adjusted net loss (non-GAAP standard) was RMB 2.215.9 billion, RMB 2.777 billion and RMB 1.5897 billion, respectively. For the quarter ending March 31, 2020, Missfresh reported an adjusted net loss of RMB 175.8 million, compared to a loss of RMB 598.4 million in the same period of 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Missfresh's pricing range is $13-16 per ADS, with existing shareholders continuing to increase their investments.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMissfresh's pricing range is $13-16 per ADS, with existing shareholders continuing to increase their investments.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beijing time, June 22nd evening news,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>The F-1 prospectus has been updated, with plans to publicly offer 21 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) at a price range of $13-16 per ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders: CICC<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>US long-term fund Davis and others will continue to increase their investments, purchasing up to $90 million worth of ADSs.</p><p>According to the prospectus, Missfresh's net revenue was approximately RMB 3.5467 billion, RMB 6.0014 billion, and RMB 6.1304 billion in 2018, 2018, and 2020, respectively. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Missfresh's net revenue was RMB 1.6898 billion, and for the three months ended March 31, 2021, net revenue was RMB 1.5302 billion.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that Missfresh's gross profit was RMB 304 million in 2018, increased by 71.3% to RMB 520.9 million in 2019, and increased by another 128.5% to RMB 1.1904 billion in 2020. For the three months ended March 31, 2020, Missfresh's gross profit was RMB 510.8 million, compared to RMB 189 million in the same period of 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, Missfresh's net losses were RMB 2.2316 billion, RMB 2.9094 billion, and RMB 1.649.2 billion, respectively. For the quarter ending March 31, 2020, Missfresh reported a net loss of 194.7 million yuan, compared to a loss of 610.3 million yuan in the same period of 2021. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, Missfresh's adjusted net loss (non-GAAP standard) was RMB 2.215.9 billion, RMB 2.777 billion and RMB 1.5897 billion, respectively. For the quarter ending March 31, 2020, Missfresh reported an adjusted net loss of RMB 175.8 million, compared to a loss of RMB 598.4 million in the same period of 2021.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc6d948584260429c150c1dd44a898f","relate_stocks":{"MF":"MindForge Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142464181","content_text":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至多价值9000万美元的ADS。\n招股书显示，每日优鲜2018年-2020年的净营收分别约为35.467亿元， 60.014亿元，61.304亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的净营收为16.898亿元，截止2021年3月31日的三个月，净营收为15.302亿元。\n招股书还显示，每日优鲜的毛利润在2018年为3.04亿元，2019年增长71.3%了至5.209亿元，2020年再增长128.5%，达到11.904亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的毛利为5.108亿元，2021年的同期为1.89亿元。\n2018年至2020年，每日优鲜净亏损分别为22.316亿元，29.094亿元、16.492亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜净亏损1.947亿元，2021年同期亏损6.103亿元。2018年、2019年和2020年，每日优鲜的调整后净亏损（非GAAP标准）分别为22.159亿元、27.77亿元、15.897亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜调整后净亏损为1.758亿元，2021年同期亏损5.984亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184070530,"gmtCreate":1623679294220,"gmtModify":1704208499930,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184070530","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Federal Reserve about to turn on itself? Super Central Bank Week: Markets Await It Seriously\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week marks Super Central Bank Week, with several central banks, including the Federal Reserve, set to announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>US inflation reached 5% in May, a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce a tapering of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Renowned economist Ren Zeping recently stated that<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or begins shrinking balance sheet and tightening monetary policy, it will put pressure on global capital markets.</b></p><p><b>// Super Central Bank Week is here //</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and others will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the one that attracts the most attention.</b></p><p><b>The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on June 17th. Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind's analysis reveals that, based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Egypt are highly likely to choose to maintain their existing benchmark interest rates unchanged.</p><p>The Ukrainian central bank may choose 50 basis points for rate hike, while the Brazilian central bank may choose 75 basis points for rate hike. The Norwegian central bank may hint at declaring a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>// With inflation soaring, is the Federal Reserve about to change its tune?  //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in its monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be seen as a key signal of global tightening of monetary policy.</p><p>According to Wind's research of multiple sources, the mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal as early as the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting before the end of August this year, while the more common view is that it will be announced at the meeting in September this year. But no, people don't seem to believe the Federal Reserve's claim that \"inflation is only temporary\".</p><p>In its April policy statement, the Federal Reserve wrote, \"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.\" Therefore, whether the Federal Reserve will remove this statement from its June interest rate decision is expected to be the \"epicenter\" triggering market-wide volatility.</p><p>The market is currently awaiting a clear signal from the Federal Reserve, and dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year.</p><p><b>// US CPI hits near 13-year high //</b></p><p>If the Federal Reserve changes its dovish stance, inflation will be the decisive factor.</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time shows that<b>The CPI rose 5% year-on-year in May, a new high since August 2008, compared to the expected 4.7% increase and the previous 4.2% increase, marking the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years.</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Image from Wind Financial Terminal EDB module)</p><p>Annual inflation measures have been boosted compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices fell sharply due to a plunge in demand for many goods and services. The market currently expects this so-called base effect to significantly push up inflation data for May and June until the fall.</p><p>According to multiple data points recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, housing prices across the United States were soaring as of April.</p><p>The S&P Shiller home price index rose 13.2% in March compared to the same period in 2020, the largest increase since December 2005. Home price indices in 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released in early June, showed that inflationary pressures in the United States had further increased. The report shows that from early April to the end of May, economic activity across U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster pace. Jurisdictions generally expect that costs and sales prices may continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>// Inflation data released, market not panicking //</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11 exceeded expectations, but did not trigger market panic.</p><p>On that day, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with gains all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3 per ounce; International crude oil futures closed broadly higher, with the US crude oil contract for July delivery rising 0.19% to $70.09 a barrel. Base metals prices in London were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One reason for the lack of increase in market volatility is the ECB's dovish stance overnight, and the market may believe that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) chose not to indicate when it might begin tapering its pandemic-era stimulus program and expects inflation to remain below target for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank decided to continue its stimulus program, and its ultra-low interest rates remained unchanged.</p><p><b>// Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risks of the Fed's rate hike shrinking balance sheet //</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the continued rise in US inflation poses a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that rising U.S. inflation and yields will push up borrowing costs for developing countries, in addition to...<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will outpace emerging economies, which will lead to capital outflows from emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering currency depreciation.</b></p><p>According to S&P data, refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs. Most of these economies pay less than 1% interest.</p><p>In a research report released on June 11, Ren Zeping, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, called for vigilance against the risks posed by the Federal Reserve's rate hike shrinking balance sheet.</p><p>He stated that, according to market expectations, vaccination coverage in the United States may reach 70% around October, with basic vaccination completed by the end of the year. The risks of the Federal Reserve's future shrinking balance sheet and capital outflows from new markets warrant vigilance.</p><p>He emphasized that global asset price valuations are currently very high, and China has normalized its monetary policy.<b>If the Federal Reserve's monetary policy were to normalize one day, or if it were to begin shrinking balance sheet and tighten monetary policy, it would put pressure on global capital markets.</b>the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened in February and March of this year, capital flowed out of the new market, and the Turkish market collapsed immediately.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy, and market outlook for the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the peak of the economy, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>Secondly, the phase of the sharpest rise in commodity prices may be over, and the peak is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Thirdly, market expectations and anxieties about tightening monetary policy will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来  //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n//  通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？  //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n//  美国CPI创近13年新高  //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n//  通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌  //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n//  任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险  //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194869875,"gmtCreate":1621354366597,"gmtModify":1704356367897,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194869875","repostId":"1187734006","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187734006","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Barrons巴伦","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1621339333,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187734006?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-18 20:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Haidilao has fallen into a deep red sea; simply opening stores won't help it recover.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187734006","media":"Barrons巴伦","summary":"对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月，海底捞股价腰斩，由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不","content":"<p>For leading companies that were once high-growth, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the growth slope eases, the fundamental valuation judgments will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, falling from about HK$85 to around HK$44. The direct trigger was a weaker-than-expected performance recovery, specifically a decline in profits and table turnover rates.</p><p>A research report published by Morgan Stanley in May of this year only gave Haidilao a \"in line with the market\" rating, with a target price of HK$56. The report revealed that Haidilao restaurants' overall table turnover rate in April was less than 3%, lower than in March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs gave a \"neutral\" rating in a report published earlier in March, with a target price of HK$57; The report stated at the time that the slow recovery from the turnaround in Taiwan could pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term—major bank ratings are neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight,\" and have always been regarded by many investors as close to \"sell.\"</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a deep red sea, a matter of \"the elephant in the room,\" but for a considerable period of time, investors treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry position and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation has consistently been higher than that of its peers like Yum China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was the COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted the inertia of this understanding. In 2020, Haidilao's number of stores bucked the trend and grew, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 showed that the marginal improvement brought about by continuous store expansion was weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be doing well? The question needs to be asked in two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operations return to their former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price recover? They are not actually the same question, and the answers to both will not arrive simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Table turnover crisis? It's actually a passenger flow crisis.</b></p><p>The most discussed key metric for Haidilao in the market is table turnover rate.</p><p>There are essentially two ways for restaurants to increase table turnover: First, shorten customer dining time; Second, increase customers' willingness to wait for a table. When eating hot pot, it's all about time, and Haidilao's focus on maintaining table turnover is clearly on the second point.</p><p>As is well known, Haidilao has pioneered a complete set of value-added services to appease customers waiting for a table, which has been unmatched in the catering industry for many years. Therefore, the preliminary conclusion regarding the decline in Haidilao's table turnover rate is probably that it's not that customers who have come are unwilling to wait, but rather that not as many customers have arrived.</p><p>We can use the \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"average customer spending\" data from the company's financial statements to simply calculate the number of customers dining at Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, Haidilao restaurants' revenue in first-tier cities was RMB 6.481625 billion and RMB 5.930587 billion, respectively, while the average spending per customer in first-tier cities was RMB 110.1 and RMB 116.2, respectively. By dividing \"revenue\" by \"per capita consumption,\" Haidilao restaurants had approximately 58.87 million customers in first-tier cities in 2019, while the figure for 2020 was 51.038 million, a decrease of about 13% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Haidilao restaurant operating revenue by geographical region (data table excerpted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Performance Indicators of Haidilao Restaurants (Data table excerpted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, Haidilao had a total of 1,298 restaurants, an increase of nearly 70% compared to 768 in 2019. According to its financial report, Haidilao restaurants served over 250 million customers in 2020, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% compared to 244 million customers in 2019.</p><p>Meanwhile, Haidilao's table turnover rate for newly opened restaurants in 2020 was only 2.8%, a decrease of more than 30% compared to 4.1% in 2019.</p><p>A recent report by Morgan Stanley revealed that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was less than 3%, a month-on-month decrease compared to March, and only about 70% of the level in the same period of 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed was largely in line with market expectations, and its revenue in lower-tier cities saw considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that the increasing number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening.</b>。</p><p>In April, the Weibo trending topic \"Eat at Haidilao for 17 yuan\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But the more practical problem is: customers still like you, they just won't eat you anymore.</p><p>So, where did the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>With diverse alternatives, the hot pot market is booming.</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's table turnover rate and stock price can return to an upward trajectory, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>Data from the China Hotel Association and NCBD (Canbaodian) shows that in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to have fallen back to the level of 2018, which is about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, multiple predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-dollar market; In the venture capital world, this is considered one of the main bases for betting on this sector; Emerging entrepreneurs, traditional well-known companies, and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of a trillion-yuan scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The hot pot market is actually very low in concentration.</b>。 Data from the China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020 shows that the CR5 of the Chinese hot pot market was only 5.5%. The demand for hot pot is fragmented, and besides the leading companies, there are many other participants—</p><p>Continuous innovation in product categories and brands. Xiaolongkan and Tanyaxue challenged Haidilao in terms of taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the average order value (regardless of success or failure); Lazy Bear Hot Pot secured nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef hot pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, sour fish soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their places of origin to the whole country over the years.</p><p>The hot pot broth and seasoning industry is heating up. According to the \"Broth Storm: In-depth Report on the Hot Pot Broth Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May, hot pot brands entering the C-end market and traditional condiment companies expanding their product categories are making competition in the industry increasingly fierce. The addictiveness of spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the industry's accelerated growth in the household sector. The listed companies mentioned in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Foods, and Haitian Flavoring.</p><p>Hot pot ingredient supermarkets are on the rise. Hema Fresh launches \"Hot Pot Season\"; E-commerce platforms such as Missfresh and Dingdong Maicai are making strides; Anjoy Foods and others are taking this opportunity to increase their market share in quick-frozen foods or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-industry attempts are frequently Mengniu and Gome entered the market; Liangpin Shop and Three Squirrels are making self-indulgent hot pot; Even Bilibili got involved. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even trendy small appliances with optimized designs and functions are fueling this trend.</p><p>Haidilao has certainly played a significant role in all of this and has achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a very small proportion of its total revenue and are insufficient to compensate for the decline in the company's overall core business indicators. Taking food delivery as an example, in 2020, Haidilao's food delivery revenue rose from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%. However, in terms of revenue share, it only increased from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>I would like to reiterate the previous point here.<b>The hot pot market is so dark, and even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, its marginal effectiveness will be difficult to reach the level of its earlier years.</b>。</p><p>For leading companies that were once high-growth, the market does not value growth rate, but \"the growth rate of growth rate\". Once the growth slope eases, the fundamental valuation judgments will also change.</p><p>This is not to say that the items listed above can fundamentally undermine the more social and ritualistic dine-in hot pot market—as mentioned earlier, they are inherently fragmented—but rather that the diversification of alternatives is inhibiting the regrowth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. Data from Meituan-Dianping shows that as of 2020, hot pot accounted for more than 13% of China's regular meal market, making it the largest segment. We cannot be overly optimistic that total market demand can continue to expand rapidly, or that the proportion of hot pot products can still increase significantly.</p><p>Another possibility, slightly further away, is that hidden competition also comes from neighboring industries.</p><p>Before the term \"internet celebrity\" became widespread, Haidilao was once the leader in the internet celebrity industry. The business community is circulating the slogan \"You Can't Learn Haidilao,\" and good friends are keen to experience the companionship and meticulous attention to detail. Haidilao's service quality almost became an urban legend in the 1990s.</p><p>To this day,<b>This generation of young people has dedicated the \"queuing\" issue to milk tea and other popular online shops.</b>。 Data from the NCBD shows that young women remain the main consumer group for hot pot. In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of hot pot consumers in China; Among them, those aged 26-30 accounted for 30.1%, and those aged 18-25 accounted for 28.1%. To make a rough estimate, in actual consumption scenarios, the number of businesses competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers far exceeds that of ten years ago.</p><p>Waiting for a table means waiting for Haidilao's consumer preferences to fade. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and snacks are no longer novel. More importantly, the ultimate service experience, as a core competitive advantage, is losing its magic as customers gradually become desensitized and their thresholds rise. At this point, we have not yet discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by issues such as menu price increases.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be okay?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy was to pick up high-quality stores at low prices, resulting in a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, the number of companies in first-tier cities in mainland China increased by 65, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with the growth rate slowing down; Second-tier cities saw a net increase of 167, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% Third-tier cities saw a net increase of 257, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. As of the end of March 2021, the company had signed 91 new stores. Including the stores that had been signed but not yet opened last year, the number of stores opened for the whole of 2021 is expected to remain above 500.</p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. Net profit decreased by 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and increased salary levels, employee costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortisation increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs increased from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowings. With operations suspended and cash flow drying up during the pandemic, Haidilao borrowed a large sum of money to support its store expansion against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings amounted to RMB 3.9894 billion.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be doing well? This question needs to be divided into two parts. (1) When will Haidilao's operations return to their former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price recover? They are not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, as the vaccination progress in China deepens, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover as people's social habits recover. Meanwhile, Haidilao's growth in lower-tier cities is promising. The prevailing market view is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to a Morgan Stanley report, Haidilao's table turnover rate in April this year was less than 3%;<b>It should be noted that even this table turnover rate, which was considered lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average.</b>。 Data from the China Hotel Association and NCBD shows that in China's catering industry, the table turnover rate for main meals is around 2.1%, fast food and snacks can reach over 8%, and the overall table turnover rate for hot pot is about 2.3%. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, Coucou Hotpot's table turnover rate was 2.9% in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate as high as 4.8% in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not whether Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how excellent it can be and whether it can continue to become even better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should be wary of the possibility of its valuation center shifting downwards.</p><p>In the restaurant chain industry, Starbucks' historical valuation trajectory can provide some reference. During its period of emergence, brand rise, and rapid expansion, its P/E was consistently higher than 50 times, or even more than 100 times. After the period of rapid growth ended, its P/E adjusted and fluctuated within a range of 20 times or less; Once the company returned to a steady upward trajectory, Starbucks' valuation recovered to a large extent, but it did not return to the level of its period of rapid growth.</p><p>For investors looking to buy Haidilao at rock-bottom prices, it is essential to cautiously await more definitive signals of earnings recovery.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Haidilao has fallen into a deep red sea; simply opening stores won't help it recover.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHaidilao has fallen into a deep red sea; simply opening stores won't help it recover.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Barrons巴伦 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-18 20:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For leading companies that were once high-growth, the market values \"the growth rate of growth\". Once the growth slope eases, the fundamental valuation judgments will also change. From mid-February to May 2021, Haidilao's stock price halved, falling from about HK$85 to around HK$44. The direct trigger was a weaker-than-expected performance recovery, specifically a decline in profits and table turnover rates.</p><p>A research report published by Morgan Stanley in May of this year only gave Haidilao a \"in line with the market\" rating, with a target price of HK$56. The report revealed that Haidilao restaurants' overall table turnover rate in April was less than 3%, lower than in March and lower than market expectations. Goldman Sachs gave a \"neutral\" rating in a report published earlier in March, with a target price of HK$57; The report stated at the time that the slow recovery from the turnaround in Taiwan could pose a risk to Haidilao's earnings and valuation in the short term—major bank ratings are neither \"buy\" nor \"overweight,\" and have always been regarded by many investors as close to \"sell.\"</p><p>China's hot pot market has long been a deep red sea, a matter of \"the elephant in the room,\" but for a considerable period of time, investors treated Haidilao differently. Based on its industry position and brand reputation, Haidilao's valuation has consistently been higher than that of its peers like Yum China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/439773619a33e88fa51fa3e0eea53057\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>It was the COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted the inertia of this understanding. In 2020, Haidilao's number of stores bucked the trend and grew, but the situation in the first quarter of 2021 showed that the marginal improvement brought about by continuous store expansion was weakening.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be doing well? The question needs to be asked in two parts: (1) When will Haidilao's operations return to their former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price recover? They are not actually the same question, and the answers to both will not arrive simultaneously.</p><p><b>1、</b><b>Table turnover crisis? It's actually a passenger flow crisis.</b></p><p>The most discussed key metric for Haidilao in the market is table turnover rate.</p><p>There are essentially two ways for restaurants to increase table turnover: First, shorten customer dining time; Second, increase customers' willingness to wait for a table. When eating hot pot, it's all about time, and Haidilao's focus on maintaining table turnover is clearly on the second point.</p><p>As is well known, Haidilao has pioneered a complete set of value-added services to appease customers waiting for a table, which has been unmatched in the catering industry for many years. Therefore, the preliminary conclusion regarding the decline in Haidilao's table turnover rate is probably that it's not that customers who have come are unwilling to wait, but rather that not as many customers have arrived.</p><p>We can use the \"total restaurant revenue\" and \"average customer spending\" data from the company's financial statements to simply calculate the number of customers dining at Haidilao.</p><p>In 2019 and 2020, Haidilao restaurants' revenue in first-tier cities was RMB 6.481625 billion and RMB 5.930587 billion, respectively, while the average spending per customer in first-tier cities was RMB 110.1 and RMB 116.2, respectively. By dividing \"revenue\" by \"per capita consumption,\" Haidilao restaurants had approximately 58.87 million customers in first-tier cities in 2019, while the figure for 2020 was 51.038 million, a decrease of about 13% year-on-year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74fd31e686e63d79461f14b948b0da26\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"856\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Haidilao restaurant operating revenue by geographical region (data table excerpted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf05bf9209e24adc7be659956a4e0758\" tg-width=\"949\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Key Performance Indicators of Haidilao Restaurants (Data table excerpted from the company's financial report)</b></p><p>By the end of 2020, Haidilao had a total of 1,298 restaurants, an increase of nearly 70% compared to 768 in 2019. According to its financial report, Haidilao restaurants served over 250 million customers in 2020, a year-on-year increase of only about 2.5% compared to 244 million customers in 2019.</p><p>Meanwhile, Haidilao's table turnover rate for newly opened restaurants in 2020 was only 2.8%, a decrease of more than 30% compared to 4.1% in 2019.</p><p>A recent report by Morgan Stanley revealed that in April 2021, the table turnover rate of Haidilao's restaurants was less than 3%, a month-on-month decrease compared to March, and only about 70% of the level in the same period of 2019.</p><p>For reference, although the company's store opening speed was largely in line with market expectations, and its revenue in lower-tier cities saw considerable year-on-year growth,<b>Investors have reason to suspect that the marginal improvement that the increasing number of new stores can bring to Haidilao is weakening.</b>。</p><p>In April, the Weibo trending topic \"Eat at Haidilao for 17 yuan\" showed that Haidilao had not lost the attention and goodwill of the mainstream public. But the more practical problem is: customers still like you, they just won't eat you anymore.</p><p>So, where did the customers go?</p><p><b>2、</b><b>With diverse alternatives, the hot pot market is booming.</b></p><p>To discuss whether Haidilao's table turnover rate and stock price can return to an upward trajectory, we first need to update our understanding of the hot pot market.</p><p>Data from the China Hotel Association and NCBD (Canbaodian) shows that in 2019, the total revenue of China's hot pot market reached 960 billion yuan. In 2020, this figure is expected to have fallen back to the level of 2018, which is about 880 billion yuan.</p><p>Since 2018, multiple predictions have pointed out that hot pot will be a trillion-dollar market; In the venture capital world, this is considered one of the main bases for betting on this sector; Emerging entrepreneurs, traditional well-known companies, and entertainment stars are all opening hot pot restaurants...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08148ee5651669c03c60db5e730d3309\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"546\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, for specific companies in the secondary market, the significance of a trillion-yuan scale is not as great as it seems. The reason is that,<b>The hot pot market is actually very low in concentration.</b>。 Data from the China Business Industry Research Institute in 2020 shows that the CR5 of the Chinese hot pot market was only 5.5%. The demand for hot pot is fragmented, and besides the leading companies, there are many other participants—</p><p>Continuous innovation in product categories and brands. Xiaolongkan and Tanyaxue challenged Haidilao in terms of taste and experience; Xiabuxiabu seeks to increase the average order value (regardless of success or failure); Lazy Bear Hot Pot secured nearly 100 million yuan in Series A financing in February. Chaoshan beef hot pot, Yunnan-style hot pot, sour fish soup, coconut chicken... have spread from their places of origin to the whole country over the years.</p><p>The hot pot broth and seasoning industry is heating up. According to the \"Broth Storm: In-depth Report on the Hot Pot Broth Industry\" published by China Merchants Securities in May, hot pot brands entering the C-end market and traditional condiment companies expanding their product categories are making competition in the industry increasingly fierce. The addictiveness of spicy food and the lazy economy have driven the industry's accelerated growth in the household sector. The listed companies mentioned in the report include Yihai International, Tianwei Foods, and Haitian Flavoring.</p><p>Hot pot ingredient supermarkets are on the rise. Hema Fresh launches \"Hot Pot Season\"; E-commerce platforms such as Missfresh and Dingdong Maicai are making strides; Anjoy Foods and others are taking this opportunity to increase their market share in quick-frozen foods or ready-made food.</p><p>Cross-industry attempts are frequently Mengniu and Gome entered the market; Liangpin Shop and Three Squirrels are making self-indulgent hot pot; Even Bilibili got involved. In March 2021, Bilibili opened an official experience store in Shanghai for its documentary \"Life is Boiling\".</p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has promoted the cultivation of the habit of eating hot pot at home, and even trendy small appliances with optimized designs and functions are fueling this trend.</p><p>Haidilao has certainly played a significant role in all of this and has achieved visible growth, but these businesses account for a very small proportion of its total revenue and are insufficient to compensate for the decline in the company's overall core business indicators. Taking food delivery as an example, in 2020, Haidilao's food delivery revenue rose from 448 million yuan in 2019 to 717 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%. However, in terms of revenue share, it only increased from 1.7% to 2.5%.</p><p>I would like to reiterate the previous point here.<b>The hot pot market is so dark, and even if Haidilao's strategy of continuing to open stores works, its marginal effectiveness will be difficult to reach the level of its earlier years.</b>。</p><p>For leading companies that were once high-growth, the market does not value growth rate, but \"the growth rate of growth rate\". Once the growth slope eases, the fundamental valuation judgments will also change.</p><p>This is not to say that the items listed above can fundamentally undermine the more social and ritualistic dine-in hot pot market—as mentioned earlier, they are inherently fragmented—but rather that the diversification of alternatives is inhibiting the regrowth of industry leaders such as Haidilao.</p><p>Because the base is already very high. Data from Meituan-Dianping shows that as of 2020, hot pot accounted for more than 13% of China's regular meal market, making it the largest segment. We cannot be overly optimistic that total market demand can continue to expand rapidly, or that the proportion of hot pot products can still increase significantly.</p><p>Another possibility, slightly further away, is that hidden competition also comes from neighboring industries.</p><p>Before the term \"internet celebrity\" became widespread, Haidilao was once the leader in the internet celebrity industry. The business community is circulating the slogan \"You Can't Learn Haidilao,\" and good friends are keen to experience the companionship and meticulous attention to detail. Haidilao's service quality almost became an urban legend in the 1990s.</p><p>To this day,<b>This generation of young people has dedicated the \"queuing\" issue to milk tea and other popular online shops.</b>。 Data from the NCBD shows that young women remain the main consumer group for hot pot. In 2020, women accounted for 57.1% of hot pot consumers in China; Among them, those aged 26-30 accounted for 30.1%, and those aged 18-25 accounted for 28.1%. To make a rough estimate, in actual consumption scenarios, the number of businesses competing with hot pot restaurants for waiting customers far exceeds that of ten years ago.</p><p>Waiting for a table means waiting for Haidilao's consumer preferences to fade. Value-added packages consisting of manicures and snacks are no longer novel. More importantly, the ultimate service experience, as a core competitive advantage, is losing its magic as customers gradually become desensitized and their thresholds rise. At this point, we have not yet discussed the decline in customer satisfaction caused by issues such as menu price increases.</p><p><b>3、</b><b>Will Haidilao still be okay?</b></p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's strategy was to pick up high-quality stores at low prices, resulting in a net increase of 530 stores throughout the year. Among them, the number of companies in first-tier cities in mainland China increased by 65, rising to 255, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with the growth rate slowing down; Second-tier cities saw a net increase of 167, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% Third-tier cities saw a net increase of 257, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 132%. As of the end of March 2021, the company had signed 91 new stores. Including the stores that had been signed but not yet opened last year, the number of stores opened for the whole of 2021 is expected to remain above 500.</p><p>In 2020, Haidilao's revenue still increased by 7.8% year-on-year, reaching 28.6 billion yuan. Net profit decreased by 86% year-on-year to 310 million yuan. In terms of operating costs, the cost of raw materials and consumables increased by 9.1% year-on-year; Due to business expansion and increased salary levels, employee costs increased by 21.1% year-on-year. Depreciation and amortisation increased by 60.4% year-on-year.</p><p>Haidilao's financial report also pointed out that the company's financial costs increased from RMB 236.8 million in 2019 to RMB 445.6 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 88.2%, mainly due to the increase in interest on lease liabilities and bank borrowings. With operations suspended and cash flow drying up during the pandemic, Haidilao borrowed a large sum of money to support its store expansion against the trend. As of December 31, 2020, its bank borrowings amounted to RMB 3.9894 billion.</p><p>Will Haidilao still be doing well? This question needs to be divided into two parts. (1) When will Haidilao's operations return to their former level? (2) Can Haidilao's stock price recover? They are not actually the same problem.</p><p>At the operational level, as the vaccination progress in China deepens, the performance of hot pot restaurants will further recover as people's social habits recover. Meanwhile, Haidilao's growth in lower-tier cities is promising. The prevailing market view is that Haidilao is recovering, but the recovery speed is slow.</p><p>According to a Morgan Stanley report, Haidilao's table turnover rate in April this year was less than 3%;<b>It should be noted that even this table turnover rate, which was considered lower than expected, is still significantly higher than the industry average.</b>。 Data from the China Hotel Association and NCBD shows that in China's catering industry, the table turnover rate for main meals is around 2.1%, fast food and snacks can reach over 8%, and the overall table turnover rate for hot pot is about 2.3%. According to Xiabuxiabu's financial report, Coucou Hotpot's table turnover rate was 2.9% in 2019 and dropped to 2.5 in 2020. In other words, Haidilao restaurants had a table turnover rate as high as 4.8% in 2019, which is twice the industry average.</p><p>The question now is not whether Haidilao is no longer excellent, but whether the expectation of how excellent it can be and whether it can continue to become even better is reasonable.</p><p>Therefore, at the stock price level, investors should be wary of the possibility of its valuation center shifting downwards.</p><p>In the restaurant chain industry, Starbucks' historical valuation trajectory can provide some reference. During its period of emergence, brand rise, and rapid expansion, its P/E was consistently higher than 50 times, or even more than 100 times. After the period of rapid growth ended, its P/E adjusted and fluctuated within a range of 20 times or less; Once the company returned to a steady upward trajectory, Starbucks' valuation recovered to a large extent, but it did not return to the level of its period of rapid growth.</p><p>For investors looking to buy Haidilao at rock-bottom prices, it is essential to cautiously await more definitive signals of earnings recovery.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f2c25e060d113f3768c45cafc16292","relate_stocks":{"06862":"海底捞"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187734006","content_text":"对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n\n2021年2月中旬至5月，海底捞股价腰斩，由大约85港元跌至44港元附近。直接诱因是业绩复苏不及预期，具体而言是利润和翻台率下滑。\n摩根士丹利于今年5月发表的研究报告仅给予海底捞“与大市同步”评级，目标价56港元；该报告透露，海底捞餐厅4月的整体翻台率小于3，低于3月，也低于市场预期。高盛更早于3月发表的报告给出的评级是“中性”，目标价57港元；报告当时称，翻台恢复速度缓慢，短期内可能对海底捞的收益和估值构成风险——大行评级既非“买入”，也非“增持”，向来被很多投资者视同为近似“卖出”。\n中国的火锅市场早已是深红色的海，这件事是“房间里的大象”，但在相当长的时间里，投资者对海底捞是区别对待的。基于行业地位和品牌美誉，海底捞的估值水平常年高于百胜中国这样的同业公司。\n\n是新冠疫情打断了相关认知的惯性。2020年，海底捞的门店数量逆势增长，但2021年一季度的情况显示，不断拓店所能带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n海底捞还会好吗？提问还要一分为二：（1）海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平？（2）海底捞的股价能否重振？它们其实并不是同一个问题，两者的答案也不会同步到来。\n1、翻台率危机？其实是客流量危机\n海底捞被市场讨论最多的关键指标是翻台率。\n餐馆提升翻台率的方法无非两点：一，缩短顾客用餐时间；二，提升顾客等位意愿。吃火锅，吃的就是时间，海底捞维护翻台率的重心显然在于第二点。\n众所周知，海底捞开创出一整套安抚等位顾客的增值服务，餐饮界多年来无人能出其右。那么，关于海底捞翻台率下滑的初步结论恐怕是：不是来了的顾客不愿意等，而是没有那么多顾客到来。\n我们可以使用公司财报中的“餐厅总收入”和“顾客人均消费”这两项数据，来简单计算一下海底捞的顾客就餐人次。\n2019年、2020年，海底捞餐厅在一线城市的收入分别是64.81625亿元、59.30587亿元，一线城市的顾客人均消费分别为110.1元、116.2元。以“收入”除以“人均消费”可知，2019年，海底捞餐厅在一线城市的顾客人次大约是5887万人，而2020年的数据是5103.8万人，同比减少了大约13%。\n\n根据地理区域划分的海底捞餐厅经营收入（数据表格截取自公司财报）\n\n海底捞餐厅关键表现指标（数据表格截取自公司财报）\n至2020年末，海底捞经营餐厅总数为1298家，较2019年的768家同比增加接近70%。而据财报，2020年全年，海底捞餐厅服务顾客超2.5亿人次，较2019年的2.44亿人次同比增长仅约2.5%。\n同时，海底捞2020年新开餐厅的翻台率仅为2.8，较2019年的4.1下降了超过30%。\n而摩根士丹利在近期报告中透露，2021年4月，海底捞旗下餐厅翻台率低于3，较3月环比下跌，仅为2019年同期水平的约70%。\n参照来看，虽然该公司的开店速度基本符合市场预估，且低线城市的收入规模有可观的同比增长，但是，投资者有理由怀疑，不断增加新店数量能为海底捞带来的边际改善正在减弱。\n4月，“17元吃海底捞”的微博热搜话题表明，海底捞并没丧失主流大众的关注和好感。但更实际的问题是：顾客还喜欢你，他们只是不去吃你了。\n那么，顾客去了哪里？\n2、替代品多样化，火锅赛道海太红了\n要讨论海底捞的翻台率和股价能否重回上升轨道，首先需要更新对火锅市场的认知。\n中国饭店协会和NCBD（餐宝典）的数据显示，2019年，中国火锅市场的总收入规模达到了9600亿元，2020年，该数字预计已回落至2018年的水平，大约8800亿元。\n自2018年以来，早有多方预测指出，火锅将是一个万亿级别的市场；在创投界，这被当作是下注该赛道的主要依据之一；创业新锐、传统名企、娱乐明星，都在开火锅店……\n\n但对于二级市场的具体公司来说，万亿级规模的意义，并不像看上去那么大。原因在于，火锅市场的集中度其实非常低。中商产业研究院2020年的数据显示，中国火锅市场的CR5仅为5.5%。吃火锅的需求被碎片化地瓜分，龙头之外，参与者众——\n品类与品牌创新不断。小龙坎和谭鸭血在口味和体验上挑战了海底捞；呷哺呷哺谋求提升客单价（且不论成功与否）；懒熊火锅在2月份获得了近亿元A轮融资。潮汕牛肉锅、滇式火锅、酸汤鱼、椰子鸡……数年来各自从原产地向全国传播。\n火锅底料和调料行业升温。招商证券5月发表的《底料风暴：火锅底料产业深度报告》指出，切入C端的火锅品牌和扩张品类的传统调味品企业正使该行业竞争日益激烈。而辣味成瘾性和懒人经济，驱动了该行业在家庭端的增长加速。报告中涉及的上市公司包括颐海国际、天味食品、海天味业等。\n火锅食材超市兴起。盒马鲜生推出“火锅季”；每日优鲜、叮咚买菜等电商发力；安井食品等趁机提升速冻食材或预制菜的市占率。\n跨界尝试频现。蒙牛、国美入局；良品铺子和三只松鼠在做自嗨锅；连B站都来掺合，2021年3月，哔哩哔哩在上海为其纪录片《生活如沸》开了一家官方体验店。\n新冠疫情促进了宅家吃火锅习惯的培养，连设计和功能优化的新潮小家电也在推波助澜。\n凡此种种，海底捞当然多有参与，也取得了可见的增长，但这些业务在其总收入中占比很小，不足以弥补公司整体业务核心指标的下滑。以外卖为例，2020年，海底捞外卖业务收入从2019年的4.48亿元上升到7.17亿元，同比增长了60%；但在收入占比方面，仅从1.7%上升至2.5%。\n这里要重申前文的观点，火锅红海的颜色如此之深，海底捞继续开店的策略即使奏效，边际效用也难以达到早年的水平。\n对于曾经高成长的龙头，市场看重的不是增速，而是“增速的增速”。一旦增长的斜率变得缓和，基本的估值判断也将随之改变。\n并不是说，以上列举的事项，能从根本上破坏更具社交功能和仪式感的到店正餐火锅市场——如前所述，它们本来就很分散，而是说，替代品的多样化在抑制海底捞等行业龙头的再成长。\n因为基数已经很高。来自美团点评的数据显示，截至2020年，在中国的正餐市场中，火锅的占比超过13%，已经是其中份额最高的细分品类。我们不能过于乐观地认为，市场的总需求还能高速扩张，或是火锅品类的占比仍能大幅提升。\n还有一种离得稍远的可能性是，隐性竞争还来自隔壁行业。\n在“网红”这个词还没泛滥的岁月里，海底捞曾经就是网红界的魁首。商业界在传阅《海底捞你学不会》，好朋友们热衷于结伴体验有求必应和无微不至。海底捞的服务品质，几乎成为本世纪10年代的都市传说。\n到如今，这届年轻人把“排队”这件事献给了奶茶和其他网红店。NCBD的数据显示，年轻女性迄今仍是火锅消费的主要人群；2020年，中国火锅消费者的女性占比是57.1%；其中26—30岁占比30.1%，18—25岁占比28.1%。不严谨地推测一下，在实际消费场景中，跟火锅店争夺等位顾客的业态之多，远胜于十年前。\n等位就等海底捞的消费者偏好有所淡化。由美甲和小零食组成的增值套餐不再新奇。更关键的是，作为核心竞争力的极致服务体验，随着顾客的逐渐脱敏和阈值抬升，魔力也在衰变。至此，我们还未讨论菜单涨价等问题造成的顾客满意度下降。\n3、海底捞还会好吗\n2020年，海底捞的策略是逢低拾取优质店铺，全年净增530家门店。其中，在中国大陆一线城市净增65家，上升至255家，同比增34%，增速放缓；二线城市净增167家，同比增约50%；三线城市净增257家，同比增约132%。2021年，截至3月末，该公司新签约门店91家，加上去年已签约、未开业的店面，预计2021年全年的开店数量仍将在500家以上。\n2020年全年，海底捞营收仍有7.8%的同比增长，达到286亿元。而净利润同比下降86%，为3.1亿元。经营成本方面，原材料及易耗品成本同比上升了9.1%；由于业务扩张和薪资水平提高，员工成本同比上升了21.1%。折旧及摊销同比上升了60.4%。\n海底捞的财报亦指出，公司财务成本从2019年的人民币2.368亿元上升到2020年的人民币4.456亿元，同比增长了88.2%，主要由租赁负债利息和银行借款利息增加所致。在疫情中经营停摆、现金流枯萎的情况下，海底捞借入了大额款项来支撑逆势扩店。截至2020年12月31日，其银行借款为39.894亿元。\n海底捞还会好吗？这个提问还要一分为二。（1）海底捞的经营何时回到昔日水平？（2）海底捞的股价能否重振？它们其实并不是同一个问题。\n在经营层面，随着国内疫苗接种进度的深入，火锅店的业绩会随人们的社交习惯恢复进一步复苏。同时，海底捞在低线城市的增长是值得期待的。市场较普遍的观点是，海底捞在恢复，但恢复速度较缓。\n据摩根士丹利的报告，海底捞今年4月的翻台率小于3；需要指出的是，即使是这个被认为不及预期的翻台率，依然要显著高于行业均值。中国饭店协会和NCBD的数据显示，在中国餐饮业中，正餐的翻台率在2.1左右，快餐小吃可以达到8以上，而火锅业态整体的翻台率约为2.3。依据呷哺呷哺的财报，凑凑火锅的翻台率2019年为2.9，2020年降至2.5。换言之，海底捞餐厅在2019年时高达4.8的翻台率，是行业均值的两倍。\n现在的问题，不是海底捞不再优秀，而是关于它能优秀到何种程度、能不断变得更为优秀的预期是否合理。\n所以在股价层面，投资者应该提防其估值中枢下移的可能性。\n在餐饮连锁业态中，星巴克的估值变化历史轨迹可以提供某种参考。在身为新锐、品牌崛起、高速扩张的时期，其市盈率曾持续高于50倍、甚至百倍以上。而高速成长期结束后，其市盈率在20倍乃至以下区间调整、震荡；待公司重回平稳上升的轨道后，星巴克的估值得到很大程度的理性修复，但并未回到高速成长期的水平。\n对想要抄底海底捞的投资者而言，谨慎等待更具确定性的业绩复苏信号，是很有必要的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"06862":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129240951,"gmtCreate":1624375058273,"gmtModify":1703834928936,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129240951","repostId":"1191907311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191907311","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624372217,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191907311?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Behind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191907311","media":"雷达财经","summary":"一张纪念卡牌能有多贵？答案是8700万元。","content":"<p>By Zhang Kaijing</p><p>How expensive can a commemorative card be? The answer is 87 million yuan.</p><p>On June 21, 2021, the limited-edition Yu-Gi-Oh! card \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" exceeded 87 million yuan in just half an hour after its auction began on Alibaba Auction. Platform data shows that it went through 2,105 rounds of bidding, and more than 2.32 million people watched the grand auction. Ultimately, the auction was suspended due to possible malicious speculation and bidding. A day later, another personal item belonging to the same owner—a USB flash drive—was also auctioned for a record-breaking price of nearly 40,000 yuan, and the auction was also forcibly suspended.</p><p>Yan Chuang, a lawyer at Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, told Radar Finance that if a participant in a judicial auction is found to have engaged in malicious bidding, the people's court can impose fines or detention depending on the severity of the circumstances, and if a crime is constituted, criminal liability can be pursued in accordance with the law. If the last person to complete the transaction fails to pay on time and the auction is re-auctioned, they should also bear the resulting price difference and cost losses. However, based on the current situation, due to the cancellation of the auction, the final bidder will not be held accountable.</p><p>Radar Finance noted that some people had previously been punished for making malicious bids and regretting their bids. In addition, Alibaba Auction has also warned of the risk of regretting the auction.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that behind this auction lies a major corruption case. In November 2020, Zhang Yujie, an employee of a company in Chuzhou, was sentenced to life imprisonment on suspicion of embezzlement and had all his personal property confiscated. It's worth mentioning that the \"luxury goods\" he purchased with the 69.9325 million yuan he embezzled included, in addition to the \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" Yu-Gi-Oh! pure gold card, a Rolex watch, a 1982 Lafite...</p><p><b>Yu-Gi-Oh! cards started at 80 yuan and fetched a record-breaking 87 million yuan.</b></p><p>The Yu-Gi-Oh! \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" being auctioned this time is a limited edition card made of approximately 11g of 24K gold, making it a top-tier collectible among collectible cards.</p><p>Yu-Gi-Oh! is an anime that aired in Japan after 2000, focusing on card monster duels and seven ancient artifacts. Its card game is the world's best-selling collectible card game developed by KONAMI and certified by Guinness World Records. Currently, the cumulative sales of this series of cards have exceeded 25.17 billion.</p><p>According to media reports, the card series is limited to 500 sets, each with a unique collection number and certificate printed with \"No.1-500\". The official price is 200,000 yen (about 12,000 yuan), and the market price is around 200,000-300,000 yuan.</p><p>Radar Finance noted that this price was not particularly outstanding in the history of Yu-Gi-Oh! cards. Previously, a Japanese netizen posted a photo of a \"Blue-Eyed Ultimate Dragon\" priced at 45 million yen. It is said to be the championship prize of the 2001 Asian Championships and is the only one of its kind in the world. Some people even listed the \"Chaos Warrior\" prize card from an official competition in 2000 on an online store, priced at 999.8 million yen, which is equivalent to over 58 million RMB today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624224470d5695709484e2e4c7d7420\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, after fetching a record-breaking 87 million yuan at auction, this \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" card has undoubtedly broken the previous record and become the highest-priced Yu-Gi-Oh card auctioned in the world.</p><p>According to data from Alibaba Auction, a total of 18,104 people registered for the auction, 76,716 people set reminders, and more than 2.3 million views. According to a content creator who participated in the auction, the starting price was only 80 yuan because the original owner entrusted a friend to purchase it from Japan, but then threw away the packaging box and certificate when going through customs to avoid taxes.</p><p>At 4:00 PM on June 21, the card auction officially began. As of 4:32:34 PM, 2,105 people had bid. Before the auction was halted, the last netizen to bid was Y8745, with a bid of 87,326,098 yuan.</p><p>According to statistics compiled by netizens, Y8745 was bid on three times. 25 minutes after the auction began, the bid amounts were 52156075, 54106076, and finally 87326098. The top three bidders bid 47, 33, and 25 times, respectively.</p><p><b>After the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh! card in history, the most expensive USB flash drive in history has appeared.</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that on June 22, another property under the name of the original owner of \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\"—a SanDisk USB drive—was also suspended from auction due to \"a serious discrepancy between the value of the auction item and the actual auction price, which may indicate malicious price gouging.\"</p><p>In an announcement regarding a USB flash drive owned by the judgment debtor, the Chuzhou Intermediate People's Court of Anhui Province stated that the starting bid for the USB flash drive was 40 yuan, the appraised price was 50 yuan, the service life was unknown, it had not been used for a long time, there were no accessories or instructions, and it was unknown whether it could be used normally.</p><p>However, by the end of June 21, the bidding price for the USB drive had risen to 1,512 yuan. As of 3:21:45 PM on June 22, before the auction was suspended, the auction price of the USB drive reached 39,810 yuan, with a total of 1,186 bids and attracting more than 290,000 views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/668ef66d7a88165ee2e260cc041e0701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"This must be the most expensive USB drive in history, right?\" one netizen exclaimed. According to the images displayed, the USB flash drive has only 4GB of memory. Radar Finance's search revealed that the most expensive USB flash drive on the SanDisk flagship store is currently priced at 1499 yuan, with 1TB of memory, which is more than 250 times the price of the auctioned USB flash drive. However, there are also rumors that the reason the USB drive is being snapped up is because it contains the key to Bitcoin.</p><p>\"There have been two consecutive instances of malicious price gouging for a series of items in the same case, and the auction of other items has been terminated.\" According to the platform's announcement, due to the exorbitant prices of Yu-Gi-Oh! cards and USB flash drives in the past two days, the auction of other items of the holder has been suspended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b505dfca4e980f39ff75f7eff2e359\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Lawyer: Malicious bidding must bear serious consequences</b></p><p>\"The deposit is not high, but netizens think it's fun and don't understand the seriousness of judicial auctions,\" said lawyer Yan Chuang.</p><p>According to Article 111 of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China and Article 187 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China, the people's court may impose fines or detain buyers who maliciously raise prices in judicial online auctions and disrupt the order of judicial auctions. If a crime is constituted, criminal liability shall be pursued in accordance with the law.</p><p>Yan Chuang explained that malicious bidding refers to the behavior of individuals participating in judicial auctions who, without genuine intention to purchase, register false personal information, collude with the person subject to enforcement, or knowingly lack the ability to pay, still bid against others and maliciously raise prices to prevent others from bidding normally, resulting in failed auctions and other behaviors that hinder or interfere with court enforcement and judicial auction activities.</p><p>In addition, relevant laws stipulate that even if the buyer regrets the purchase after a judicial online auction, the deposit paid by the buyer will not be refunded. If the buyer fails to pay the price within the time limit, the people's court may order a re-auction. If the reauction price is lower than the original auction price, the resulting price difference, cost losses, etc., shall also be borne by the original buyer.</p><p>\"The last transaction is the one with the highest price. If they fail to pay on time and the auction is re-auctioned, they will have to bear the resulting price difference and cost losses,\" Yan Chuang pointed out.</p><p>However, Yan Chuang also admitted that the auction has been canceled, and the last bidder does not need to bear the corresponding responsibility. \"The public still needs to raise their legal awareness.\"</p><p>Radar Finance noted that in Alibaba's auction notice, a bidder had previously breached the contract and was judicially detained for 15 days and fined 100,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed663f33627d1f4b7d6b37576e2b854d\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7d1fe16c72c8e3516881f5da185280\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The origin of the major corruption case five years ago</b></p><p>Behind the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh! cards and USB flash drives auctioned this time lies a major corruption case.</p><p>According to the indictment released by the Chuzhou Municipal People's Procuratorate of Anhui Province, Zhang Yujie, the original holder of the \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" Yu-Gi-Oh! pure gold card, was born in 1995. Between 2016 and April 2019, taking advantage of his position in the custody of existing housing funds at a company in Chuzhou City, he embezzled a total of 69.9325 million yuan of existing housing custody funds multiple times by directly embezzling the custody funds without recording them in the accounts and falsifying the facts of receipt.</p><p>Specifically, Zhang Yujie embezzled escrow funds paid by 399 homebuyers. He also purchased two properties in Chuzhou City in the name of his then-girlfriend Zhou Moumou. Without paying the purchase price, he issued false escrow certificates for existing housing transaction funds in Chuzhou City and embezzled 2.6 million yuan and 3.9 million yuan of escrow funds based on the false escrow certificates.</p><p>According to Alibaba's auction announcement, Zhang Yujie used \"illicit funds\" to purchase assets including Hainan huanghuali wooden bracelets, eight Rolex, GUCCI, and OMEGA watches, three DIOR glasses, 10 bottles of highly collectible red wine, including Château Lafite 1982 dry red wine, and commemorative banknotes. However, what best highlights his personality are his electronic products. Including BRIKK gold-plated and diamond-encrusted game controllers, a 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console, a limited edition PS4 Pro console for God of War 4, 3 Switch consoles, 4 Alien computers, a large number of Sony and beats headphones, 4 Apple tablets, 2 laptops, 11 mobile phones...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc5320757fdea9e3866b27dbf3d2eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Public information shows that the gold-plated and diamond-encrusted PS4 controller deluxe edition is priced at approximately $14,000, the 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at 3,799 yuan, and the God of War 4 limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at approximately $400.</p><p>In March 2020, Zhang Yujie was detained by the Tianchang Municipal Supervisory Commission on suspicion of embezzlement. Two months later, he was arrested by the Tianchang Municipal Public Security Bureau. In November of the same year, Zhang Yujie was sentenced to life imprisonment and all of his personal property was confiscated.</p>","source":"lsy1575359225748","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the \"most expensive game card in history\" lies a major corruption case.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雷达财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-22 22:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Zhang Kaijing</p><p>How expensive can a commemorative card be? The answer is 87 million yuan.</p><p>On June 21, 2021, the limited-edition Yu-Gi-Oh! card \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" exceeded 87 million yuan in just half an hour after its auction began on Alibaba Auction. Platform data shows that it went through 2,105 rounds of bidding, and more than 2.32 million people watched the grand auction. Ultimately, the auction was suspended due to possible malicious speculation and bidding. A day later, another personal item belonging to the same owner—a USB flash drive—was also auctioned for a record-breaking price of nearly 40,000 yuan, and the auction was also forcibly suspended.</p><p>Yan Chuang, a lawyer at Beijing Zhongwen Law Firm, told Radar Finance that if a participant in a judicial auction is found to have engaged in malicious bidding, the people's court can impose fines or detention depending on the severity of the circumstances, and if a crime is constituted, criminal liability can be pursued in accordance with the law. If the last person to complete the transaction fails to pay on time and the auction is re-auctioned, they should also bear the resulting price difference and cost losses. However, based on the current situation, due to the cancellation of the auction, the final bidder will not be held accountable.</p><p>Radar Finance noted that some people had previously been punished for making malicious bids and regretting their bids. In addition, Alibaba Auction has also warned of the risk of regretting the auction.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that behind this auction lies a major corruption case. In November 2020, Zhang Yujie, an employee of a company in Chuzhou, was sentenced to life imprisonment on suspicion of embezzlement and had all his personal property confiscated. It's worth mentioning that the \"luxury goods\" he purchased with the 69.9325 million yuan he embezzled included, in addition to the \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" Yu-Gi-Oh! pure gold card, a Rolex watch, a 1982 Lafite...</p><p><b>Yu-Gi-Oh! cards started at 80 yuan and fetched a record-breaking 87 million yuan.</b></p><p>The Yu-Gi-Oh! \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" being auctioned this time is a limited edition card made of approximately 11g of 24K gold, making it a top-tier collectible among collectible cards.</p><p>Yu-Gi-Oh! is an anime that aired in Japan after 2000, focusing on card monster duels and seven ancient artifacts. Its card game is the world's best-selling collectible card game developed by KONAMI and certified by Guinness World Records. Currently, the cumulative sales of this series of cards have exceeded 25.17 billion.</p><p>According to media reports, the card series is limited to 500 sets, each with a unique collection number and certificate printed with \"No.1-500\". The official price is 200,000 yen (about 12,000 yuan), and the market price is around 200,000-300,000 yuan.</p><p>Radar Finance noted that this price was not particularly outstanding in the history of Yu-Gi-Oh! cards. Previously, a Japanese netizen posted a photo of a \"Blue-Eyed Ultimate Dragon\" priced at 45 million yen. It is said to be the championship prize of the 2001 Asian Championships and is the only one of its kind in the world. Some people even listed the \"Chaos Warrior\" prize card from an official competition in 2000 on an online store, priced at 999.8 million yen, which is equivalent to over 58 million RMB today.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6624224470d5695709484e2e4c7d7420\" tg-width=\"549\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>However, after fetching a record-breaking 87 million yuan at auction, this \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" card has undoubtedly broken the previous record and become the highest-priced Yu-Gi-Oh card auctioned in the world.</p><p>According to data from Alibaba Auction, a total of 18,104 people registered for the auction, 76,716 people set reminders, and more than 2.3 million views. According to a content creator who participated in the auction, the starting price was only 80 yuan because the original owner entrusted a friend to purchase it from Japan, but then threw away the packaging box and certificate when going through customs to avoid taxes.</p><p>At 4:00 PM on June 21, the card auction officially began. As of 4:32:34 PM, 2,105 people had bid. Before the auction was halted, the last netizen to bid was Y8745, with a bid of 87,326,098 yuan.</p><p>According to statistics compiled by netizens, Y8745 was bid on three times. 25 minutes after the auction began, the bid amounts were 52156075, 54106076, and finally 87326098. The top three bidders bid 47, 33, and 25 times, respectively.</p><p><b>After the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh! card in history, the most expensive USB flash drive in history has appeared.</b></p><p>It is worth mentioning that on June 22, another property under the name of the original owner of \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\"—a SanDisk USB drive—was also suspended from auction due to \"a serious discrepancy between the value of the auction item and the actual auction price, which may indicate malicious price gouging.\"</p><p>In an announcement regarding a USB flash drive owned by the judgment debtor, the Chuzhou Intermediate People's Court of Anhui Province stated that the starting bid for the USB flash drive was 40 yuan, the appraised price was 50 yuan, the service life was unknown, it had not been used for a long time, there were no accessories or instructions, and it was unknown whether it could be used normally.</p><p>However, by the end of June 21, the bidding price for the USB drive had risen to 1,512 yuan. As of 3:21:45 PM on June 22, before the auction was suspended, the auction price of the USB drive reached 39,810 yuan, with a total of 1,186 bids and attracting more than 290,000 views.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/668ef66d7a88165ee2e260cc041e0701\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>\"This must be the most expensive USB drive in history, right?\" one netizen exclaimed. According to the images displayed, the USB flash drive has only 4GB of memory. Radar Finance's search revealed that the most expensive USB flash drive on the SanDisk flagship store is currently priced at 1499 yuan, with 1TB of memory, which is more than 250 times the price of the auctioned USB flash drive. However, there are also rumors that the reason the USB drive is being snapped up is because it contains the key to Bitcoin.</p><p>\"There have been two consecutive instances of malicious price gouging for a series of items in the same case, and the auction of other items has been terminated.\" According to the platform's announcement, due to the exorbitant prices of Yu-Gi-Oh! cards and USB flash drives in the past two days, the auction of other items of the holder has been suspended.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b505dfca4e980f39ff75f7eff2e359\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Lawyer: Malicious bidding must bear serious consequences</b></p><p>\"The deposit is not high, but netizens think it's fun and don't understand the seriousness of judicial auctions,\" said lawyer Yan Chuang.</p><p>According to Article 111 of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China and Article 187 of the Interpretation of the Supreme People's Court on the Application of the Civil Procedure Law of the People's Republic of China, the people's court may impose fines or detain buyers who maliciously raise prices in judicial online auctions and disrupt the order of judicial auctions. If a crime is constituted, criminal liability shall be pursued in accordance with the law.</p><p>Yan Chuang explained that malicious bidding refers to the behavior of individuals participating in judicial auctions who, without genuine intention to purchase, register false personal information, collude with the person subject to enforcement, or knowingly lack the ability to pay, still bid against others and maliciously raise prices to prevent others from bidding normally, resulting in failed auctions and other behaviors that hinder or interfere with court enforcement and judicial auction activities.</p><p>In addition, relevant laws stipulate that even if the buyer regrets the purchase after a judicial online auction, the deposit paid by the buyer will not be refunded. If the buyer fails to pay the price within the time limit, the people's court may order a re-auction. If the reauction price is lower than the original auction price, the resulting price difference, cost losses, etc., shall also be borne by the original buyer.</p><p>\"The last transaction is the one with the highest price. If they fail to pay on time and the auction is re-auctioned, they will have to bear the resulting price difference and cost losses,\" Yan Chuang pointed out.</p><p>However, Yan Chuang also admitted that the auction has been canceled, and the last bidder does not need to bear the corresponding responsibility. \"The public still needs to raise their legal awareness.\"</p><p>Radar Finance noted that in Alibaba's auction notice, a bidder had previously breached the contract and was judicially detained for 15 days and fined 100,000 yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed663f33627d1f4b7d6b37576e2b854d\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"796\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7d1fe16c72c8e3516881f5da185280\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The origin of the major corruption case five years ago</b></p><p>Behind the most expensive Yu-Gi-Oh! cards and USB flash drives auctioned this time lies a major corruption case.</p><p>According to the indictment released by the Chuzhou Municipal People's Procuratorate of Anhui Province, Zhang Yujie, the original holder of the \"Blue-Eyed White Dragon\" Yu-Gi-Oh! pure gold card, was born in 1995. Between 2016 and April 2019, taking advantage of his position in the custody of existing housing funds at a company in Chuzhou City, he embezzled a total of 69.9325 million yuan of existing housing custody funds multiple times by directly embezzling the custody funds without recording them in the accounts and falsifying the facts of receipt.</p><p>Specifically, Zhang Yujie embezzled escrow funds paid by 399 homebuyers. He also purchased two properties in Chuzhou City in the name of his then-girlfriend Zhou Moumou. Without paying the purchase price, he issued false escrow certificates for existing housing transaction funds in Chuzhou City and embezzled 2.6 million yuan and 3.9 million yuan of escrow funds based on the false escrow certificates.</p><p>According to Alibaba's auction announcement, Zhang Yujie used \"illicit funds\" to purchase assets including Hainan huanghuali wooden bracelets, eight Rolex, GUCCI, and OMEGA watches, three DIOR glasses, 10 bottles of highly collectible red wine, including Château Lafite 1982 dry red wine, and commemorative banknotes. However, what best highlights his personality are his electronic products. Including BRIKK gold-plated and diamond-encrusted game controllers, a 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console, a limited edition PS4 Pro console for God of War 4, 3 Switch consoles, 4 Alien computers, a large number of Sony and beats headphones, 4 Apple tablets, 2 laptops, 11 mobile phones...</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc5320757fdea9e3866b27dbf3d2eb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"586\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Public information shows that the gold-plated and diamond-encrusted PS4 controller deluxe edition is priced at approximately $14,000, the 500 million limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at 3,799 yuan, and the God of War 4 limited edition PS4 Pro console is priced at approximately $400.</p><p>In March 2020, Zhang Yujie was detained by the Tianchang Municipal Supervisory Commission on suspicion of embezzlement. Two months later, he was arrested by the Tianchang Municipal Public Security Bureau. In November of the same year, Zhang Yujie was sentenced to life imprisonment and all of his personal property was confiscated.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3GLEKF7fJ7gkRSxVxq2zw\">雷达财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e584cf3e83856adee20fc26b5873221","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h3GLEKF7fJ7gkRSxVxq2zw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191907311","content_text":"文|张凯旌\n一张纪念卡牌能有多贵？答案是8700万元。\n2021年6月21日，游戏王限量卡牌“青眼白龙”在阿里拍卖开拍仅半小时后，竞买价格就突破了8700万元。平台数据显示，其共经历2105轮竞买，有超过232万人围观了此次拍卖会的盛况。最终，因可能存在恶意炒作与竞价行为，本场拍卖被中止。一天后，相同持有人的另一私人物品——U盘也被拍出近4万元的天价，而这场拍卖同样遭到了强制中止。\n北京市中闻律师事务所律师闫创对雷达财经表示，若参与司法拍卖的人员被认定属于恶意竞拍，人民法院可以根据情节严重程度予以罚款、拘留，构成犯罪的还可以依法追究刑事责任。最后一个成交的人如果因逾期不支付款项，导致重新拍卖，造成的差价及费用损失也应由他来承担。不过根据目前的情况，因拍卖取消，最后出价的人不用被追究责任。\n雷达财经注意到，此前曾有人为恶意出价并悔拍的行为遭处罚。此外，阿里拍卖也曾提示过悔拍风险。\n值得一提的是，此次拍卖背后，还隐藏着一个贪腐大案。2020年11月，滁州某公司员工张雨杰因涉嫌贪污罪被判处无期徒刑，没收个人全部财产。值得一提的是，他用贪污得来的6993.25万元资金所购买的“奢侈品”，除了“青眼白龙”游戏王纯金卡牌，还包括劳力士手表、82年拉菲……\n游戏王卡牌80元起拍，拍出8700万天价\n此次拍卖的游戏王“青眼白龙”属于限量卡牌，用料为约11g的24K金，是集换式卡牌中的王者级藏品。\n游戏王是2000年后在日本播出的一部以卡牌怪兽决斗和七件千年神器为主线的动漫，而其卡片游戏则是由KONAMI研发，吉尼斯世界纪录认证的全世界销量最高的集换式卡牌游戏。目前，该系列卡牌累计发售已突破251亿7000万张。\n据媒体报道，该卡牌所属系列限量发售500套，每一张都有独特的印有“No.1-500”的收藏编号和证书，官方定价为20万日元（约合1.2万元人民币），市场价在20-30万元左右。\n雷达财经注意到，这个价格在游戏王的卡牌历史中本不算出众。此前有日本网友晒出一张售价高达4500万日元的“青眼究极龙”，据说是2001年亚洲锦标赛的冠军奖品，全世界仅此一张；还有人将2000年某次官方大赛的奖品卡“混沌战士”上架至网络商城，标价9.998亿日元，放在现在约合超5800万元人民币。\n\n但是在拍出8700万元的天价后，这张“青眼白龙”无疑已经打破此前的纪录，成为了全世界拍卖价格最高的游戏王卡牌。\n从阿里拍卖的数据来看，此次拍卖共有18104人报名，76716人设置提醒，超过230万次围观。之所以起拍价仅为80元，根据一位参与拍卖的up主所述，是因为原持有人委托友人从日本购入后，过海关时为了避税把包装盒及证书都扔了。\n6月21日16时，该卡牌正式开始拍卖，截至16时32分34秒，已有2105人出价拍卖，在拍卖被叫停前，最后一名出价的网友竞买号为Y8745，出价8732.6098万元。\n有网友统计发现，Y8745共出价3次，进场时间在开始拍卖25分钟后，出价金额分别是52156075、54106076和最后的87326098。而竞拍次数排名前三位的竞拍者则拍了47、33和25次。\n史上最贵游戏王卡牌后又现史上最贵U盘\n值得一提的是，6月22日，“青眼白龙”原持有人名下的另一项财产——一个SanDisk U盘也因“拍品价值与实际竞拍价格严重不符，可能存在恶意抬价的行为”被中止拍卖。\n安徽省滁州市中级人民法院在关于被执行人U盘1个的公告中称，该U盘起拍价为40元，评估价为50元，使用年限不明，长久未使用，无任何配件及说明书，能否正常使用不详。\n但6月21日结束时，该U盘的竞买价格已升至1512元。而截至6月22日15时21分45秒，即拍卖中止前，该U盘的拍卖价格更是高达39810元，共有1186次竞买，总计吸引了超29万次围观。\n\n“这应该是史上最贵U盘了吧？”有网友感叹。根据展示出的图片，该U盘内存仅4GB，雷达财经搜索发现，目前电商平台闪迪旗舰店中，最贵的U盘售价为1499元，内存1TB，是拍卖U盘的超250倍。但也有传言称，该U盘遭疯抢的原因系其中存着比特币的秘钥。\n“同一案件的系列拍品，已经连续两次出现恶意抬价行为，对其他拍品终止拍卖。”根据平台公告，受近两日天价游戏王卡牌和U盘的影响，已中止对该持有人其他拍品的拍卖活动。\n\n律师：恶意竞拍需承担严重后果\n“保证金不高，网民们就觉得好玩，对于司法拍卖的严肃性并不了解。”律师闫创称。\n根据《中华人民共和国民事诉讼法》第一百一十一条及《最高人民法院关于适用〈中华人民共和国民事诉讼法〉的解释》第一百八十七条之规定，对于在司法网拍中恶意抬价，扰乱司法拍卖秩序的买受人，人民法院可以对其罚款、拘留，构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。\n闫创解释称，恶意竞拍，就是参与司法拍卖的人员，没有真实购买意愿，登记虚假个人信息、或者与被执行人串通或明知自己无支付能力，仍与他人竞价、恶意抬价，阻止他人正常竞买，导致流拍等各种妨碍、干扰法院执行和司法拍卖活动的行为。\n除此之外，相关法律还规定，司法网拍成交后，买受人即使悔拍，其所交纳的保证金也不予退还。如果买受人逾期未支付价款，人民法院可以裁定重新拍卖。重新拍卖的价款若低于原拍卖价款，所造成的差价、费用损失等，亦由原买受人承担。\n“最后一个成交的，就是最高价成交，如果其逾期不支付款项，导致重新拍卖的话，其要承担所造成的差价及费用损失。”闫创指出。\n不过闫创也坦言，目前拍卖已被取消，最后一个出价的竞买人也就无需承担相应责任。“民众还是需要提高法律意识。”\n雷达财经注意到，阿里拍卖的提示中，此前有竞拍人毁约，被司法拘留15日，并罚款10万元。\n\n\n缘起五年前贪污大案\n此次拍卖的最贵游戏王卡牌、最贵U盘背后，隐藏着一个贪腐大案。\n安徽省滁州市人民检察院公示的起诉书显示，“青眼白龙”游戏王纯金卡牌的原持有者张雨杰出生于1995年，在2016年至2019年4月期间，借自己在滁州市某公司存量房资金托管岗位工作的契机，采取收取托管资金不入账直接侵吞、伪造收款事实等方式，多次贪污存量房托管资金计6993.25万元。\n具体而言，张雨杰先后侵吞了399户买房人缴纳的托管资金，还曾以时任女友周某某的名义购买了位于滁州市的两套房产，在未缴纳购房款的情况下，开具虚假的滁州市存量房交易资金托管凭证，根据虚假托管凭证侵吞托管资金260万元、390万元。\n根据阿里拍卖竞买公告，张雨杰用“赃款”购买的财产包括海南黄花梨木质手串、劳力士、GUCCI、OMEGA共计8块手表、3支DIOR眼镜、拉菲酒庄干红葡萄酒1982等10瓶极具收藏价值的红葡萄酒、纪念钞等，但最能突出其个性的还是一干电子产品。包括BRIKK镀金镶钻游戏手柄、五亿限定版PS4 Pro主机、《战神4》限定版PS4 Pro主机，3台Switch主机、4台外星人电脑、大量索尼、beats的耳机和苹果的4台平板电脑、2台笔记本电脑、11部手机……\n\n公开信息显示，镀金镶钻PS4手柄豪华版售价约14000美元，五亿限定版PS4 Pro主机售价3799元，《战神4》限定版PS4 Pro主机售价约400美元。\n2020年3月，张雨杰因涉嫌贪污罪被天长市监察委员会留置，两个月后，其被天长市公安局执行逮捕。同年11月，张雨杰被判处无期徒刑，没收个人全部财产。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168515476,"gmtCreate":1623978586195,"gmtModify":1703825240006,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","listText":"Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168515476","repostId":"2144164740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144164740","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623978494,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144164740?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The day after the Federal Reserve anticipated an earlier rate hike, long-term US Treasury yields plummeted. Why?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144164740","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周四，30年期美债收益率大幅下行16个基点，创2月来最大盘中跌幅和四个月最低，五年/30年期收益率曲线创去年11月来最平。一方面，美联储加息时间提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使收益率曲线走平，同时，这也是QE即将终结的号角。市场对“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维亟需转变。","content":"<p>On Thursday, June 17, a day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" suggested an earlier 2023 rate hike, the U.S. long-term Treasury Bond yield plummeted, giving back all of yesterday's gains, and the yield curve flattened further.</p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has returned below the 1.50% mark, falling as much as 9.7 basis points on the day to a daily low of 1.47%, after surging from less than 1.50% to 1.569% yesterday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points on the day, marking its biggest intraday drop since February, hitting a daily low of 2.049%, a four-month low since mid-February.</b>。 Yesterday's gains were relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, making today's decline even more pronounced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The yield curves for five-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have flattened further, with the yield spread, a typical representative of medium- and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, plummeting to 118 basis points, the flattest level since November last year. Following yesterday's FOMC meeting, the yield on five-year US Treasury bonds surged by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. Treasury yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively plummeted. By midday, bank ETFs had fallen by more than 4%, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index had fallen 4.5%, marking its biggest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell by more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It fell 3%.</p><p>Meanwhile, the ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 mark, hitting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, with COME August gold futures closing down nearly 4.7%, marking at least the largest single-day drop for the main contract since November last year, closing below $1,775, also the lowest closing price since April 30.</p><p><h2><b>The Federal Reserve's rate hike schedule suppressed long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, leading to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve.</b></h2><b>Why have long-term US Treasury yields reversed dramatically, while the yield curve is collapsing at an accelerated pace?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the composite U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened over the past two days, the highest level since the liquidity crisis began last March.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and constrained long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve. Money market traders have even brought forward their pricing expectations for the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Federal Reserve's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given the green light to those who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as investments, and market participants have begun buying long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to hedge other riskier positions in their portfolios.</p><p>Priya Misra, global head of interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a “major setback” following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting trades that bet on a steepening of the 5-year/30-year US Treasury yield curve. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs, holds a similar view.</p><p>CNBC, a financial media outlet, believes that prices of base metals such as copper continued their weekly decline, and bond traders are watching for a sharp sell-off in commodities. Bond yields typically move in sync with commodities, as they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 412,000 last week, returning above the 400,000 mark and exceeding market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also led some investors to return to the US Treasury market, thereby lowering bond yields.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge, citing analysis from global economic trends website Mish Talk, stated that the US Treasury yield curve cannot currently be called \"absolutely flat,\" but the gradually flattening trend is important, and the sharp drop in the 30-year long-term US Treasury yield is itself a significant signal.<b>This means that inflation fears are largely in the \"rearview mirror,\" meaning they are no longer the main concern of the market and the key factor influencing trading behavior.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the US Treasury yield curve may signal the imminent end of quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying program; investors should buy bonds.</b></h2>Wall Street Insights also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, dubbed \"the most important in five years,\" marks the gradual entry of monetary policy into its second phase. Going forward, the focus of market disagreements may lie in the \"slow\" or \"urgent\" nature of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will normalize at all. The habitual thinking of a \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed.</p><p>Looking at the results, the four \"surprises\" we mentioned in Tuesday's preview surprisingly came true: the Taper was released, inflation expectations were raised, the timing of the rate hike was moved forward, and the IOER/ON RRP rate was raised. This means that the Federal Reserve has shown signs of releasing a phased exit signal through expectation guidance tools.<b>Many believe that the high-profile flattening of the US Treasury yield curve is a warning sign that QE quantitative easing bond-buying is about to end.</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of US Treasury yields in different periods before, during, and after the Federal Reserve's QE. He found that the 10-year US Treasury yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reverses QE by buying bonds through quantitative tightening (QT), US Treasury yields often fall sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve follows a similar pattern. During the period of quantitative easing (QE), short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, meaning the yield curve steepens. However, after QE ends, the yield curve flattens rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His suggestions are:</p><p>\"From the start of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year US Treasury yield tends to rise by about 1%. US Treasury yields peak before QE ends, at which point the Federal Reserve will get closer to tapering its bond purchases or stopping QE purchases. Currently, US Treasury yields are approaching their cyclical high, and if the Federal Reserve is close to tapering its bond purchases, US Treasury yields may peak.\" Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Federal Reserve is actually about to taper, the 10-year US Treasury yield will fall by 1% or more in the next 6 months to a year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds performed poorly during QE, but will perform strongly after it ends.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Federal Reserve's pace of reducing quantitative easing grows, both our total bond allocation and bond durations should increase. Since the FOMC's unexpected hawkish turn yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will formally announce the tapering of asset purchases at its September meeting, with the actual tapering of bond purchases to begin in November, sooner than they had previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. taper is also a harbinger of actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Mingming once stated that a flattening yield curve might affect consumption levels; therefore, a flattening yield curve typically indicates that the market believes economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future.</p><p>Rising short-term yields may indirectly affect certain mortgage rates. If short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, some consumer mortgage rates will also rise accordingly, thereby affecting consumer demand. In addition, rising Treasury Bond rates in the short term may increase some financing costs, reducing consumers' disposable income and potentially negatively impacting consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The day after the Federal Reserve anticipated an earlier rate hike, long-term US Treasury yields plummeted. Why?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe day after the Federal Reserve anticipated an earlier rate hike, long-term US Treasury yields plummeted. Why?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, June 17, a day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" suggested an earlier 2023 rate hike, the U.S. long-term Treasury Bond yield plummeted, giving back all of yesterday's gains, and the yield curve flattened further.</p><p>The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield has returned below the 1.50% mark, falling as much as 9.7 basis points on the day to a daily low of 1.47%, after surging from less than 1.50% to 1.569% yesterday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points on the day, marking its biggest intraday drop since February, hitting a daily low of 2.049%, a four-month low since mid-February.</b>。 Yesterday's gains were relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, making today's decline even more pronounced.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The yield curves for five-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have flattened further, with the yield spread, a typical representative of medium- and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, plummeting to 118 basis points, the flattest level since November last year. Following yesterday's FOMC meeting, the yield on five-year US Treasury bonds surged by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As U.S. Treasury yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively plummeted. By midday, bank ETFs had fallen by more than 4%, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index had fallen 4.5%, marking its biggest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo Bank</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell by more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It fell 3%.</p><p>Meanwhile, the ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 mark, hitting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, with COME August gold futures closing down nearly 4.7%, marking at least the largest single-day drop for the main contract since November last year, closing below $1,775, also the lowest closing price since April 30.</p><p><h2><b>The Federal Reserve's rate hike schedule suppressed long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, leading to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve.</b></h2><b>Why have long-term US Treasury yields reversed dramatically, while the yield curve is collapsing at an accelerated pace?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the composite U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened over the past two days, the highest level since the liquidity crisis began last March.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's latest dot plot expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and constrained long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve. Money market traders have even brought forward their pricing expectations for the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Federal Reserve's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given the green light to those who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as investments, and market participants have begun buying long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to hedge other riskier positions in their portfolios.</p><p>Priya Misra, global head of interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a “major setback” following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting trades that bet on a steepening of the 5-year/30-year US Treasury yield curve. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs, holds a similar view.</p><p>CNBC, a financial media outlet, believes that prices of base metals such as copper continued their weekly decline, and bond traders are watching for a sharp sell-off in commodities. Bond yields typically move in sync with commodities, as they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 412,000 last week, returning above the 400,000 mark and exceeding market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also led some investors to return to the US Treasury market, thereby lowering bond yields.</p><p>Financial blog Zerohedge, citing analysis from global economic trends website Mish Talk, stated that the US Treasury yield curve cannot currently be called \"absolutely flat,\" but the gradually flattening trend is important, and the sharp drop in the 30-year long-term US Treasury yield is itself a significant signal.<b>This means that inflation fears are largely in the \"rearview mirror,\" meaning they are no longer the main concern of the market and the key factor influencing trading behavior.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the US Treasury yield curve may signal the imminent end of quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying program; investors should buy bonds.</b></h2>Wall Street Insights also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, dubbed \"the most important in five years,\" marks the gradual entry of monetary policy into its second phase. Going forward, the focus of market disagreements may lie in the \"slow\" or \"urgent\" nature of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will normalize at all. The habitual thinking of a \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed.</p><p>Looking at the results, the four \"surprises\" we mentioned in Tuesday's preview surprisingly came true: the Taper was released, inflation expectations were raised, the timing of the rate hike was moved forward, and the IOER/ON RRP rate was raised. This means that the Federal Reserve has shown signs of releasing a phased exit signal through expectation guidance tools.<b>Many believe that the high-profile flattening of the US Treasury yield curve is a warning sign that QE quantitative easing bond-buying is about to end.</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of US Treasury yields in different periods before, during, and after the Federal Reserve's QE. He found that the 10-year US Treasury yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reverses QE by buying bonds through quantitative tightening (QT), US Treasury yields often fall sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year US Treasury yield curve follows a similar pattern. During the period of quantitative easing (QE), short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, meaning the yield curve steepens. However, after QE ends, the yield curve flattens rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His suggestions are:</p><p>\"From the start of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year US Treasury yield tends to rise by about 1%. US Treasury yields peak before QE ends, at which point the Federal Reserve will get closer to tapering its bond purchases or stopping QE purchases. Currently, US Treasury yields are approaching their cyclical high, and if the Federal Reserve is close to tapering its bond purchases, US Treasury yields may peak.\" Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Federal Reserve is actually about to taper, the 10-year US Treasury yield will fall by 1% or more in the next 6 months to a year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds performed poorly during QE, but will perform strongly after it ends.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Federal Reserve's pace of reducing quantitative easing grows, both our total bond allocation and bond durations should increase. Since the FOMC's unexpected hawkish turn yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will formally announce the tapering of asset purchases at its September meeting, with the actual tapering of bond purchases to begin in November, sooner than they had previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. taper is also a harbinger of actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Mingming once stated that a flattening yield curve might affect consumption levels; therefore, a flattening yield curve typically indicates that the market believes economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future.</p><p>Rising short-term yields may indirectly affect certain mortgage rates. If short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, some consumer mortgage rates will also rise accordingly, thereby affecting consumer demand. In addition, rising Treasury Bond rates in the short term may increase some financing costs, reducing consumers' disposable income and potentially negatively impacting consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144164740","content_text":"6月17日周四，在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国长期国债收益率大跌，回吐昨日全部涨幅，收益率曲线更加趋平。\n10年期基准美国国债收益率重回1.50%关口下方，日内最深下行9.7个基点，日低下逼1.47%，昨日曾从不足1.50%飙升至1.569%。\n\n30年期美债收益率日内最深下行16个基点，创2月以来最大盘中跌幅，日低至2.049%，刷新2月中旬来的四个月最低。昨日涨幅相对不大，曾从2.18%升至近2.21%，因此今日跌势更加醒目。\n\n五年期与30年期美债收益率曲线更为趋平，中期与长期美债典型代表的收益率息差骤降至118个基点，曲线为去年11月以来最平状态。昨日FOMC会后，五年期美债收益率曾暴涨超11个基点。\n\n伴随美债收益率下跌，美股银行股集体大跌，午盘时银行业ETF跌超4%，费城KBW银行指数下跌4.5%，创七个月最大盘中跌幅。富国银行、花旗、美国银行、摩根士丹利均跌超4%，高盛和摩根大通跌3%。\n同时，ICE美元指数一度上破92整数位，刷新4月13日以来的两个月高位。现货黄金自5月5日以来首次跌破1770美元，COME 8月期金收跌近4.7%，至少创去年11月以来主力合约最大单日跌幅，收报不足1775美元，也创4月30日以来收盘最低。\n美联储加息时间表提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使美债收益率曲线趋平\n为何长期美债收益率出现戏剧性逆转，同时收益率曲线在加速坍塌？据彭博社数据，过去两天的综合美债收益率曲线趋平幅度，为去年3月流动性危机以来的最高水平。\n有分析认为，美联储最新点阵图预期2023年底之前将加息两次，这一转变推高了较短期限的市场利率，并制约了长期通胀预期，导致美债收益率曲线趋平。货币市场交易员们甚至把对美联储加息25个基点的定价预期提前到了明年第四季度。\nMUFG Securities Americas 美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves认为，美联储“作为通胀斗士的可信度”，给此前担心购买长久期国债作为投资的人们大开绿灯，市场参与者开始购入长期美债，用来对冲投资组合中其他风险更高的头寸。\n道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也认为，继美联储在6月政策会议上发出鹰派信号之后，再通胀交易（reflation trade）遭受了“重大挫折”，建议退出押注五年/30年期美债收益率曲线陡峭化的交易。高盛集团首席利率策略师Praveen Korapaty也持类似观点。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，铜等基础金属价格继续周度下跌，债券交易员正在关注大宗商品的大幅抛售。债券收益率通常与大宗商品同步变动，因为它们都被视为全球经济增长的晴雨表。今日最新数据显示，上周美国首申失业金人数增至41.2万，重回40万关口上方，高于市场预期的36万人，避险需求也导致部分投资者回流美债市场，进而压低债券收益率。\n金融博客Zerohedge援引全球经济趋势网站Mish Talk的分析称，美债收益率曲线目前不能称为“绝对平坦”，但日渐趋平的趋势很重要，30年期长期美债收益率大跌本身也是重要信号，这代表通胀恐慌已经基本处于“后视镜”中，即不是市场主要担心并影响交易举动的要点了。\n美债收益率曲线高调趋平或是QE量宽买债即将终结的号角，投资者应买债\n华尔街见闻也分析指出，昨日被称为“五年来最重要”的FOMC会议标志着货币政策将逐渐走入下半场，以后市场分歧的焦点或在于货币政策正常化的“缓”与“急”，而不是会否正常化，“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维需要作出转变：\n\n 从结果来看，我们在周二前瞻中提到四大“惊喜”居然系数落地：放风Taper，通胀预期上调，加息时点前移，IOER /ON RRP利率上调，这意味着美联储已表现出通过预期引导工具，释放阶段性退出信号的姿态。\n\n不少人认为，美债收益率曲线高调趋平发出的正是QE量宽买债即将终结的警示音。\n分析师Michael Lebowtiz对比了美债收益率在美联储历次QE前、中、后不同时期的表现。他发现，10年期美债收益率在每个QE期间上升、并在QE结束时下降，如下图画圈处所示，当美联储通过量化紧缩 （QT）来逆转QE买债时，美债收益率往往急剧下降。\n\n同样，两年/10年期美债收益率曲线的走势类似。QE量宽期间，短期收益率相对稳定且长期收益率上升，即收益率曲线陡峭化，但在QE结束后，收益率曲线会迅速变平。\n\n他给出的建议是：\n\n “从QE开始到QE期间的峰值收益率水平处，10年期美债收益率往往会上涨约1%。美债收益率会在QE结束前达到峰值，这时美联储也会越来越接近缩减购债（taper）或停止QE购买。目前，美债收益率正接近其周期高点，如果美联储接近缩减购债，美债收益率可能会见顶。鉴于此前的QE末期缩减购债经验，如果美联储实际上即将taper，10年期美债收益率会在未来6个月到一年内下降1%甚至更多。股市投资者可能不知道的是，QE期间债券表现不佳，QE结束后会表现强劲。\n 债券投资者应该在美联储买入时卖出、在美联储卖出时买入。随着我们对美联储降低量化宽松步伐的信心增强，我们的债券配置总量和债券久期都应增加。”\n\n自昨日FOMC意外转鹰后，巴克莱银行的经济学家认为，美联储将在9月会议上正式宣布缩减资产购买的taper计划，实际削减买债从11月开始执行，快于他们此前预期的今年11月宣布和明年1月开始执行。而taper也是实际加息的前兆。\n中信证券明明曾称，趋平的收益率曲线可能会对消费水平有所影响，因此，收益率曲线趋平通常表明市场认为经济增长不可持续，将在未来下降：\n\n 短期收益率水平的上升可能会通过间接影响某些抵押贷款利率，如果短期利率高于长期利率，一些消费抵押贷款利率也会随之升高，进而影响消费者的消费需求；此外，短期国债利率的升高可能会提升部分融资成本，消费者的可支配收入相对减少，对消费需求可能产生负面影响。趋平的收益率曲线对固定收益投资者和房地产投资者也有负面影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QLD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194860244,"gmtCreate":1621354245688,"gmtModify":1704356365440,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194860244","repostId":"1128296319","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319816032804888,"gmtCreate":1719109018761,"gmtModify":1719109022706,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6c9de0261dd57f972a29afdfd2e42481","width":"902","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319816032804888","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122355577,"gmtCreate":1624599611599,"gmtModify":1703841432341,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/122355577","repostId":"1147716343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123761054,"gmtCreate":1624439602078,"gmtModify":1703836727655,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/123761054","repostId":"1129009844","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129009844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624438364,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129009844?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 16:52","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Regulatory impact on Bitcoin mining rig market: Bitmain suspends spot mining rig sales","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129009844","media":"界面新闻","summary":"加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。","content":"<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei: The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is beginning to be affected by regulations. On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of used machines into the market, it would temporarily suspend the sale of spot machines to alleviate customer shipment pressure. An insider at Bitmain told Jiemian News, \"That's the general direction, but we haven't received any specific sales details yet.\" Meanwhile, reports indicate that Bitmain has announced a complete overseas relocation, with some middle and senior management employees in particular moving overseas. Bitmain stated that it was not convenient to disclose the information to the public at this time. Bitmain is currently one of the world's largest Bitcoin mining rig manufacturers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Regulatory impact on Bitcoin mining rig market: Bitmain suspends spot mining rig sales</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRegulatory impact on Bitcoin mining rig market: Bitmain suspends spot mining rig sales\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 16:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei: The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is beginning to be affected by regulations. On June 23, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of used machines into the market, it would temporarily suspend the sale of spot machines to alleviate customer shipment pressure. An insider at Bitmain told Jiemian News, \"That's the general direction, but we haven't received any specific sales details yet.\" Meanwhile, reports indicate that Bitmain has announced a complete overseas relocation, with some middle and senior management employees in particular moving overseas. Bitmain stated that it was not convenient to disclose the information to the public at this time. Bitmain is currently one of the world's largest Bitcoin mining rig manufacturers...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27dbfbd85956a77609a6a352c6752bcc","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129009844","content_text":"记者／司林威\n加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。\n6月23日，比特大陆对加密货币矿工表示，由于近期大量二手机器涌入市场，为缓解客户出货压力，暂时停售现货机器。\n比特大陆内部人士向界面新闻表示：“大方向是这样，但具体销售细节暂未接到通知。”\n同时，有消息称比特大陆已宣布全面向海外转移，特别是部分中高层员工正向海外转移。比特大陆方表示暂不方便对外透露。\n比特大陆是目前全球最大的比特币矿机厂商之一，近年来在AI领域也有大量布局。在6月19日于成都举行的行业交流会上，比特大陆发布了其新品，但并非为比特币专业矿机。会上比特大陆还打出“抱团取暖，拒绝恶性竞争”的标语。现场参会的矿工透露，海外挖矿业务成了本次交流会的主要议题。\n为何比特大陆要暂停现货矿机销售？本质还是受到国内监管冲击。\n随着内蒙古、新疆、四川、青海、云南等地陆续开始叫停比特币挖矿和清退各类矿场，除一部分矿机转移至中亚和海外，大量被清退的矿机被迫关机后流入二手矿机市场，直接冲击了原有的矿机市场。\n监管政策落地后，界面新闻记者获悉多位矿工已开始售卖矿机。有矿业公司已开始清退客户矿机，并开始清仓甩卖相关矿机。\n以矿机市场销售人员近几日的报价为例，比特大陆旗下蚂蚁S19系列某款矿机6月15日报价为4万元，6月23日报价已降至3万元关口。且据矿工透露，目前市场价格处于恐慌中的低点，有价无市，愿意接手的人并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129255294,"gmtCreate":1624374952718,"gmtModify":1703834925157,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you so much&nbsp;","listText":"Like n comment, thank you so much&nbsp;","text":"Like n comment, thank you so much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129255294","repostId":"1196342132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196342132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美国最大的独立第三方研究机构之一，成立20年，专为美股、港股、A股个人投资者提供前沿内容。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"弹道财经","id":"1031387410","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c"},"pubTimestamp":1624362521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196342132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Value stocks are making a comeback! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196342132","media":"弹道财经","summary":"随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。","content":"<p>By Dr. David Eifrig</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can now seize a type of trading opportunity because it aligns with the philosophies of both leaders!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS. Soros, who would you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trending stocks; are the two bigwigs leading the same path?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views expressed in this article are based on publicly available market information and historical data and do not constitute direct investment advice. They are for communication purposes only. Feel free to leave a comment to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS. Soros, who would you side with?</b></p><p>Often, investors entering the market face a choice: should they side with Buffett or Soros? They represent two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The successes of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros are both legendary. Whether it's Soros's $1 billion profit during the \"takedown of the Bank of England\" or Buffett's 1550% return on Coca-Cola stock, both are remarkable achievements that are difficult for many to replicate.</p><p>However, if investors intend to imitate the investment strategies of these two legendary figures, they can usually only choose one big shot to follow. Because these two investment gurus have completely opposite views on volatility and risk. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works—his return on investment is far superior to that of most speculators.</p><p>Warren Buffett famously said, \"You'll only know who's swimming naked when the tide goes out.\"</p><p>In other words, the bull market provided cover for excessive risk betting. However, if investors have been taking risks without doing their due diligence or adequately preparing for a decline, then they will be the first to be affected when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>In contrast to Buffett, Soros prefers to jump into strong market trends.</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, which is what we often call chasing highs and selling lows), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble forming, I will quickly buy to add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a danger sign, but rather an opportunity. After the market deviates from fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented pace, which is simply unimaginable given stable earnings growth.</p><p>At such times,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to set aside fundamentals and invest according to investors' emotions.</b></p><p>This demonstrates that these two most successful investors in history possess completely opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, \"Watch out, you need to put on your swim trunks.\"</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investing.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as a trend forming and funds flowing, should they follow the trend and ride the wave? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no single right answer to this multiple-choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including the struggling retailer GameStop (code: GME), have completely detached themselves from reality.</p><p>Soros might say the market is too crazy and the time has come to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to exacerbate the stock's frenzy.</p><p>Buffett, on the other hand, might say that GameStop's price is absurd and unsustainable, and he would never touch such a stock.</p><p>As shown in the diagram below, Soros's trading methods have been largely correct so far. However, we are also confident that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But putting aside those crazy stocks,<b>A factor is emerging in the market that gives investors the opportunity to side with both Soros and Buffett. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trending stocks; are these two giants leading the same path?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite investment type; simply put, they refer to undervalued stocks that typically...<b>Use a low price-to-book ratio as a judgment indicator.</b>Value investors typically find stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks, on the other hand, mainly refer to stocks whose prices are constantly rising.<b>Typically, they tend to generate positive high returns for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>Most of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>Valuationists believe that if the price of a stock rises, then its price no longer becomes cheap.</p><p>Trendsetters believe that if a stock is trading cheaply, its price will usually continue to decline.</p><p>As the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks.<b>Value stocks have also developed the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many Wall Street investors and institutions identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (siding with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow trends (siding with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic investors specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>However, as value stocks also become trending stocks, investors' interest in undervalued, strong-trending stocks is gathering in large numbers.</b>This may drive these stocks to continue rising, forming a stronger trend and thus fueling the frenzy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value stocks are making a comeback! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue stocks are making a comeback! Buffett and Soros are both optimistic about this trend.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1031387410\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">弹道财经 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By Dr. David Eifrig</p><p>Abstract: Whether you agree with Buffett or Soros, you can now seize a type of trading opportunity because it aligns with the philosophies of both leaders!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS. Soros, who would you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trending stocks; are the two bigwigs leading the same path?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views expressed in this article are based on publicly available market information and historical data and do not constitute direct investment advice. They are for communication purposes only. Feel free to leave a comment to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS. Soros, who would you side with?</b></p><p>Often, investors entering the market face a choice: should they side with Buffett or Soros? They represent two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The successes of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros are both legendary. Whether it's Soros's $1 billion profit during the \"takedown of the Bank of England\" or Buffett's 1550% return on Coca-Cola stock, both are remarkable achievements that are difficult for many to replicate.</p><p>However, if investors intend to imitate the investment strategies of these two legendary figures, they can usually only choose one big shot to follow. Because these two investment gurus have completely opposite views on volatility and risk. Most of the time, investors either side with Buffett or Soros.</p><p><b>Buffett is known for his value investing, and he cautiously focuses on companies with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor and is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works—his return on investment is far superior to that of most speculators.</p><p>Warren Buffett famously said, \"You'll only know who's swimming naked when the tide goes out.\"</p><p>In other words, the bull market provided cover for excessive risk betting. However, if investors have been taking risks without doing their due diligence or adequately preparing for a decline, then they will be the first to be affected when the bubble bursts.</p><p><b>In contrast to Buffett, Soros prefers to jump into strong market trends.</b>(Translator's note: Trend investors, which is what we often call chasing highs and selling lows), as he said in 2009: \"When I see a bubble forming, I will quickly buy to add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a danger sign, but rather an opportunity. After the market deviates from fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented pace, which is simply unimaginable given stable earnings growth.</p><p>At such times,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to set aside fundamentals and invest according to investors' emotions.</b></p><p>This demonstrates that these two most successful investors in history possess completely opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, \"Watch out, you need to put on your swim trunks.\"</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investing.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as a trend forming and funds flowing, should they follow the trend and ride the wave? Or should we consider \"mean\" regression and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no single right answer to this multiple-choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including the struggling retailer GameStop (code: GME), have completely detached themselves from reality.</p><p>Soros might say the market is too crazy and the time has come to make big money, so he will find a relatively perfect trading opportunity for GameStop to exacerbate the stock's frenzy.</p><p>Buffett, on the other hand, might say that GameStop's price is absurd and unsustainable, and he would never touch such a stock.</p><p>As shown in the diagram below, Soros's trading methods have been largely correct so far. However, we are also confident that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But putting aside those crazy stocks,<b>A factor is emerging in the market that gives investors the opportunity to side with both Soros and Buffett. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trending stocks; are these two giants leading the same path?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite investment type; simply put, they refer to undervalued stocks that typically...<b>Use a low price-to-book ratio as a judgment indicator.</b>Value investors typically find stable investment opportunities in these stocks with solid but undervalued businesses.</p><p>Trend stocks, on the other hand, mainly refer to stocks whose prices are constantly rising.<b>Typically, they tend to generate positive high returns for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>Most of the time, value investors and trend investors have opposite views on the market. Specifically:</p><p>Valuationists believe that if the price of a stock rises, then its price no longer becomes cheap.</p><p>Trendsetters believe that if a stock is trading cheaply, its price will usually continue to decline.</p><p>As the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks.<b>Value stocks have also developed the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This opportunity could be huge.</p><p>Many Wall Street investors and institutions identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (siding with Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow trends (siding with Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic investors specifically buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>However, as value stocks also become trending stocks, investors' interest in undervalued, strong-trending stocks is gathering in large numbers.</b>This may drive these stocks to continue rising, forming a stronger trend and thus fueling the frenzy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fabf9c2bc6a3d13c57438fc00bbe4f1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196342132","content_text":"作者：David Eifrig博士\n摘要：无论你认可巴菲特，还是认同索罗斯，现在都可以把握一类交易机会，因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念！\n本文聚焦\n1、巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n2、价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨相关话题。\nPART1\n巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n在很多时候，进入市场的投资者都得面对一道选择题，是站队巴菲特还是站队索罗斯？他们背后代表的是两套投资哲学。\n投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功都颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元，还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报，都战绩赫赫，是很多人难以复制的成功。\n但如果投资者有意模仿这两位传奇人物的投资套路，通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为，这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点，是截然相反的。在大多数时候，投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营，要么站队索罗斯阵营。\n巴菲特以价值投资著称，他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者，不擅长做投机交易。长期来看，他已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。\n巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去，你才会知道谁在裸泳。”\n换句话说，就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险，却没有尽职做好调研，未对下跌做好充足的准备，那么在泡沫破裂时，投资者将会首当其冲。\n与巴菲特相反，索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中（译者注：趋势投资者，即我们常说的追涨杀跌），正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后，我就会赶紧买入，火上浇油一把。”\n在索罗斯看来，投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号，反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后，它们还会以前所未有的速度继续上涨，这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。\n在这种时候，索罗斯的投资哲学是抛开基本面，顺着投资者的情绪进行投资。\n由此可见，从这两位有史以来最成功的投资者身上，能看到的是截然相反的投资智慧。索罗斯想裸泳直至最后一波浪潮袭来，而巴菲特则会说，当心，你要穿好泳裤。\n这是潜藏在投资中的一个本质问题。\n当投资者看到一些市场苗头，比如看到趋势正在形成，资金正在流动，此时到底是要追随趋势、乘风破浪？还是该考虑“均值”回归，押注它们的真实价值？在大多数时候，这道选择题没有唯一正确的答案。\n比如在最近的“梗股（meme stock）”狂潮中，包括处境艰难的零售商GameStop (代码：GME)在内，一些股票已经完全脱离了现实。\n可能索罗斯会说市场太疯狂了，赚大钱的时机到了，于是他会找到GameStop相对完美的交易机会，来加剧这只股票的疯狂。\n而巴菲特则恰恰相反，他可能会说GameStop的价格是荒谬且不可持续的，他绝不会染指这种股票。\n如下图所示，截至目前，索罗斯的交易方法大部分是正确的。然而，我们也确信，巴菲特所持的判断，最终也会得到验证。\n\n但撇开那些疯狂的股票不谈，目前市场上正出现一个因素，让投资者有机会同时站队索罗斯和巴菲特。有一些类型的股票，可能同时得到索罗斯阵营和巴菲特阵营的青睐。\nPART2\n价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n价值股是巴菲特最青睐的投资类型，简单来说，就是指估值较低的股票，它们通常可以用较低的市净率作为判断指标。价值投资者通常在这些业务稳固但被低估的股票中，发掘稳定的投资机会。\n而趋势股，则主要指那些价格不断上行的股票，通常来说，它们往往连续12个月为产生正的高收益率。\n绝大多数时候，价值投资者和趋势投资者对市场的看法是相反的。具体来说：\n价值派认为，如果一只股票的价格上涨了，那么它的价格就变得不再便宜。\n趋势派则认为，如果一只股票的交易价格很便宜，那么它的价格通常会继续走低。\n而随着经济走强，市场开始青睐价值股，价值股也有了趋势股的特征。\n\n这个机会可能是巨大的。\n华尔街的许多投资者和机构都自我认定是价值投资者，于是他们买入便宜的股票(站队巴菲特)，而许多交易者和对冲基金，则更喜欢跟随趋势(站队索罗斯)。许多基于量化和算法的投资者会专门买入价值股或趋势股，因为它们对应某个类型。\n但随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。这或将推动这些股票持续走高，形成更强的趋势，进而助长狂热。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}