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2021-08-20

Very good analysis and breakdown

Morgan Stanley：China's Regulatory Reset

2021-08-12

Ok

3 Unstoppable Investments Everyone Needs in Their Portfolio

2021-08-08

??

20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years

2021-07-29

Nice!

5 of the Fastest-Growing Stocks on the Planet

2021-07-28

...

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-24

Good read

Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction

2021-07-23

???

Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...

2021-07-14

Thanks

The Fed's Complete Taper Timeline

2021-07-13

Great read!

The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why

2021-07-11

Like

The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.

2021-07-10

Great opinion piece

The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why

2021-07-10

Nice

Top 10 Cloud Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip

2021-06-29

To the moon

A Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable: 4 Surefire Stocks to Buy When It Happens

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good analysis and breakdown","listText":"Very good analysis and breakdown","text":"Very good analysis and breakdown","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836176763","repostId":"1113659023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113659023","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629430265,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113659023?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley：China's Regulatory Reset","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113659023","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It could rebalance the share of economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more profound market impact.New objective triggering major regulatory reset: We are at a signifi- cant moment in the history of China’s economy and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shi","content":"<blockquote>\n Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling&nbsp;social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It could rebalance the share of&nbsp;economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more&nbsp;profound market impact.\n</blockquote>\n<p><i><b>New objective triggering major regulatory reset: </b></i>We are at a signifi- cant moment in the history of China’s economy and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shifting governance priorities from growth to balancing growth and sustainability: social equality, data security, and self-sufficiency. China's new regulations on fintech, big tech, after-school tutoring, cryptocurrency, and carbon emissions over the past nine months underpin this major regulatory reset.</p>\n<p><i><b>Economic implications:</b></i> Under the new governance paradigm, China appears to be attempting to check the rise in corporate power and rebalance the share of the economy in favor of labor, which could result in decline in corporate profit share. We see regulatory head- winds for sectors associated with rising tensions of social inequality, environmental sustainability, and data security risks, while the new framework provides policy support to advanced manufacturing, tech localization, and renewable energy. We remain watchful of the risk of over-regulation, or, in contrast, resumption of offshore (Hong Kong) IPOs for tech companies, clarity over employment benefits and other issues concerning platform companies, progress on audit access dis- pute resolution, and clearer guidance from top policymakers to curb spillover effects of regulation changes.</p>\n<p><b><i>Investment implications:</i></b> We expect a longer and more profound impact from the current regulatory cycle on China's equity market valuations and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) than has occurred in sim- ilar past cycles, as it is affecting a more substantial proportion of the market than previously and, in particular, the Internet sector, which accounts for ~40% of MSCI China by index weight. There is a substan- tial degree of uncertainty over what this means both for future net income margins and revenue growth for the affected sectors and stocks.</p>\n<p>Our current base case forward P/E target for MSCI China of 13.0x implies MSCI China would trade on a mid-single-digit percentage val- uation discount to MSCI EM ex China for a sustained period of time. Over time we expect the MSCI China universe to gradually have a more balanced sector allocation with a reduced weight for Internet and a higher weight for sectors like Industrials and IT.</p>\n<p><i><b>Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme</b></i>: Data-heavy tech and platform companies and property could remain under pressure amid the regulatory reset, while semi localization, cybersecurity, domestic brands catering to the mass market, innovative drugs, bio- tech, and green economy may enjoy support.</p>\n<p><b>5&nbsp;Key Charts at a Glance</b></p>\n<p>A shift from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability...<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da734c8c3853c4f5e3ef9f420b44128\" tg-width=\"1384\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ef8f29c3d6672ff460eb2c2f53e4bd\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6b44f17975c68e81956d1f48f1a1f\" tg-width=\"1420\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28739534c43a8f4ad6130734def1060e\" tg-width=\"1396\" tg-height=\"998\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081b21f4492f2e201aa01ce3bf0cc0cf\" tg-width=\"1442\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e0b9b6480a2b1c9c338ece5db0f691\" tg-width=\"1378\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2a916e7de802073a0628962cc2cfe6\" tg-width=\"1114\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab4ef36aba8f43d66471c352d81a93f\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Understanding China's Regulatory Reset</b></p>\n<p>New era, new objective...</p>\n<p>We believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a shift in China's governance priorities from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability – i.e., security, self-sufficiency, and social equality. In the last decade Beijing said its key goal was to double per capita income and eliminate absolute poverty (President Xi’s inaugural speech in Nov. 2012), i.e., giving highest priority to growth. However, this \"pro-growth\" strategy also led to higher inequality and social problems due to lack of regulations on emerging sectors, pointing to the importance of \"pro-poor\" measures as a complement (see World Bank (2004): Pro-growth, pro-poor: Is there a tradeoff?). Now, the government is emphasizing “getting rich together” (common prosperity) as the new objective for the next stage of development in the midst of the CCP's 100-year anniversary, and aims to \"prevent the unbridled expansion of capital\" by intro- ducing a range of KPIs besides economic growth, which covers social equality, supply chain self-sufficiency and data security in the face of rising secular risks – income inequality, US-China tensions, and aging demographics.</p>\n<p>Reflecting this reorientation, policymakers have intensified regu- lations in the past 9 months over fintech, big tech (anti-trust, data regulation and employee protection), after-school tutoring, crypto- currency, carbon emissions and overseas IPO rules. The anti-trust campaign has mainly targeted the prevention of tech giants from an over-concentration of market power and eroding welfare of smaller businesses and outsourced employees; the fintech regulation serves&nbsp;the purpose of curbing regulatory arbitrage and financial stability risks; and the increased scrutiny over Chinese ADRs and cross-border data flow in July 2021 mainly focuses on reducing risks of security amid lingering geopolitical tensions. Similarly, the recent regulatory changes to after-school tutoring are part of policy efforts to reduce child-raising costs.</p>\n<p>In short, China is trying to rebalance the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and this may lead to some systematic de-rating in valuations for some sectors. Having said that, policymakers will have to strike a balance, as China's ambition to thrive as an economic super power will require it to ensure con- tinued private sector vitality to spur innovation and further RMB internationalization to attract capital inflows, so as to sustain long- term productivity growth. While the new regulations introduce more requirements on social responsibility and data usage, and might lead to some increase in margin pressures for related enterprises, we think they will not disrupt business models for most sectors (except for after-school tutoring). For instance, the anti-trust law mainly focuses on banning tech-giants from requiring merchants to sign exclusive cooperation pacts, while the government's guidance on enhancing flexible workers' social benefits mainly requires food delivery platforms to pay healthcare and pension coverage for out- sourced employees. Online goods sales have also held up quite well recently despite the tech regulation campaign starting from late last year. Meanwhile, some regulatory changes are supportive for advanced manufacturing, hardware localization, and clean energy supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed81f65a92f4b2731263273025f4a53\" tg-width=\"1108\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0dce11e47f8023f88a4ab2622f89e6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">...but history rhymes</p>\n<p>While many of the regulations appear long-overdue and make sense (for example on fintech, anti-trust and outsourced labour protec- tion), the pace of changes in last 9 months has caught the market off-guard as a seemingly arbitrary shift in direction.</p>\n<p>Why has it occurred in such fashion? We have indeed seen this movie many times: China’s regulatory environments have tended to oscillate between relaxed and tight enforcement, especially in emerging sectors. But this has tended to result in an abrupt regula- tory reset. Before the current reversal in regulating big tech, China had a regulation campaign on mining (2006-2009), dairy (2008- 2010), high-end dining and liquor (2013-2014), irrational capital out-&nbsp;flows (2016-17), gaming (2018), and drugs (2018-2019) – most lasting for one to two years. The sharp shifts in regulatory changes have been largely due to the fact that regulations have tended to lag a period of exponential growth in the sector:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Relaxed stage: Local government support, pro-growth men- tality and business interests together contributed to a lag in regulating emerging sectors.</li>\n <li>Tight regulation stage: When a problem is looming as evi- denced by public opinion and/or financial stability indicators, the top leadership shifts gears, quickly mobilizes all administra- tive resources to reorientate its policy control and bolster its regulatory capacity.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cb4228c860070dfebe954a1a937a1e\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the abrupt shifts in policy tend to hurt market confi- dence and would benefit from more clarity: In past regulatory cycles, capital markets usually underperformed at the start, reflecting weaker market sentiment in the face of policy uncertainty, suggesting the need for greater policy communication. Historical patterns suggest that as an initial step to restore private sector confi- dence, minister-level officials attempt to clarify policy goals publicly. But if this communication is insufficient to temper concern and even- tually weakness in private confidence hurts the job market, top-level policymakers tend to step in.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Here we can take 2H18 as an example, when the triple headwinds of deleveraging, regulatory tightening, and US-China trade tensions triggered market concerns about \"state advances, private sector retreats\". By then, while policymakers already shifted to an easing stance in July 2018 with PBoC's targeted RRR cut, followed by the Ministry of Finance's urge to accelerate local govt. bond issuance in August 2018, it did not stop the deterioration in broad credit growth&nbsp;and private sector confidence. In response, China's President con- vened a forum with entrepreneurs in November 2018 to send a clear signal on supporting private firms.</p>\n<p>We also see a similar pattern emerging from the government in trying to provide clarity in this cycle. For instance, China's Vice Premier spoke at a business forum on July 27, saying that the nation would \"strike a balance between growth and safety, to ensure social fairness and competition, and promote healthy development of the capital market\". According to Bloomberg, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also told major investment banks on July 28 that the education policies were targeted and not intended to hurt com- panies in other industries. Separately, the government of Zhejiang province (one of China's richest provinces) clarified in mid-July that the “common prosperity initiative” does not mean \"absolute equal\". We will be watchful on the potential impact of intensified regulations on private sector confidence, and see if the existing government clari- fications are sufficient to restore market sentiment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a679cb541385fed3b741397ff984c65\" tg-width=\"1134\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What is next?</b></p>\n<p>The salient shift of governance priorities from “growth first” to bal- anced growth and sustainability means that sectoral regulations will likely continue to be realigned with the broader goals of social equality and national security. We thus see potential new regulation and/or detailed implementation plans in the coming years for sectors associated with the rising tensions of income and wealth inequality, rapid fertility decline, environment, and national security risks amid post-Covid de-globalization.</p>\n<p>That said, as aforementioned, we think these regulations are more about rebalancing the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and would not necessarily view them through the lens of “state vs. private”. Therefore, while we expect regulatory tightening on data-rich tech firms, platform companies, property developers to continue, sectors in-line with China's new economic agenda should continue to get support, such as semiconductor local- ization, cybersecurity software, innovative biotech and pharmaceu- tical companies with well-differentiated drugs, mass consumption/ domestic brands, vocational training, and green economy-related investment. For more equity investment analysis, please refer to</p>\n<p>China Equity Strategy: Implications for Long-Term Valuation and ROE; Opportunities amid Headwinds &amp; Tailwinds . Understanding China's Regulatory Reset&nbsp;Are there signposts to help us navigate the outlook based on past regulatory changes?</p>\n<p>While China’s regulatory changes appear less transparent than western counterparts, we do observe similar cycles marked succes- sively by early warning signs, the formal process of drafting and releasing the regulatory documents, and official remarks signaling the end of the campaigns.</p>\n<p>1. Early warning signs: These include increased social aware- ness/anxiety, public discussions, and meaningful deterioration in major macro level indicators, usually lasting 1-2 years (or possibly longer). For example, the latest crackdown on after- school tutoring followed top leaders’ negative assessment of the sector’s impact on children back in Sep-2018, but rapid growth continued, imposing a significant financial burden on middle income households. The antitrust campaign on tech giants was preceded by years of discussion over the contro- versy from \"pick one from two\" – a practice that came under the spotlight in 2015, which means platforms force merchants to have exclusive partnerships or distribution channels. Meanwhile, prominent macro-level regulatory campaigns include the financial cleanup since 2017 (following the five- year rapid rise in debt-to-GDP ratios) and capacity cuts in 2016-18 (following multiyear PPI deflation that further deep- ened in 2015).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5352ef9df13a439c37493e9a8ca53c\" tg-width=\"1126\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. The start of the formal regulatory cycle: This is usually marked either by approval of draft regulations at high-level government meetings or the release of a publicly accessible version for comment. The final document usually publishes 9-12 months later. For example, the latest regulatory docu- ment on capital market irregularities had been drafted and approved last November. In addition, the government will often release detailed plans for implementation, accompa- nying the original (and usually high-level) guidelines.</p>\n<p>3. Signs of reaching the final stages: For regulatory campaigns that have progressed relatively more smoothly, policymakers usually declare good results in high-level meetings – such as&nbsp;\"decisive progress in the three critical battles against poverty, pollution and financial risk\" at the 2021 NPC. On the other hand, for campaigns that brought about meaningful side effects, policymakers tended to soften their stance by, for example, calling for more market- or law-based implementa- tions (e.g., the latter stage of the supply side reforms). In rare cases when private sentiment was severely undermined on a broad scale, China's top leadership has reaffirmed its policy support with measures such as VAT cuts, lower social insur- ance payment ratio, better funding support, and further reforms and opening up.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc249af2f4c828e1675a81878fef5910\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"966\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Emergence of new norm following the regulatory shocks:</b> Past experiences suggest that each regulatory wave tends to last for 1-2 years, during the start of which capital markets usually underper- formed amid rising risk premiums, but eventually the real economy and capital market adjusted to the new policy framework. As we argued above, most of the ongoing regulation (except for after- school tutoring) mainly focuses on striking a balance between the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation rather than aiming to revamp or terminate prevailing business models. In this sense, we believe the key signposts for an end to the current tech regulatory cycle could include:</p>\n<p>1. A resumption of offshore IPOs by Chinese firms within less data-sensitive sub-sectors,</p>\n<p>2. A systematic improvement in key digital platforms’ social ben- efit packages for flexible workers, and</p>\n<p>3. Major fintech companies getting the greenlight for IPOs after fully complying with regulatory requirements.</p>\n<p><b>Key policy risks to watch</b></p>\n<p>We think the key risks lie mainly in China's endogenous growth momentum and external funding. First, while our base case assumes that policymakers can strike a balance between regulation and pri- vate sector vitality under the new policy framework, an inherent tendency to over-regulate could stifle private sector confidence and innovation. Second, a lack of sufficient communication and coordina- tion would not only disrupt business operations, but could also dis- courage foreign investment amid additional informational and cultural barriers. These could slow the pace of capital formation and undermine overall productivity growth in the economy.</p>\n<p>Although some short-term pain arising from overdue regulation that follows a prolonged period of unregulated growth is inevitable, we see ways of mitigating the policy overhang.</p>\n<p>1. A more anticipatory regulation framework and forward guid- ance for emerging industries could offer greater visibility and transparency, giving businesses sufficient time to adjust.</p>\n<p>2. On policy coordination, regulatory policies would benefit from being pursued in an integrated manner in order to reduce trade-offs and maximize synergies. For example, it might be true that technology in the data era could boost growth, but it could also worsen income inequality, given its effect of favouring capital over labour and favouring skilled over unskilled labour. However, policymakers could narrow income disparities and help to defuse potential negative social impact by accelerating the urbanization 2.0 strategy and increasing fiscal transfers to optimize the social protection network.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30308333dcaae51b19d9d6df98163daa\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley：China's Regulatory Reset</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley：China's Regulatory Reset\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-20 11:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling&nbsp;social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It could rebalance the share of&nbsp;economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more&nbsp;profound market impact.\n</blockquote>\n<p><i><b>New objective triggering major regulatory reset: </b></i>We are at a signifi- cant moment in the history of China’s economy and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shifting governance priorities from growth to balancing growth and sustainability: social equality, data security, and self-sufficiency. China's new regulations on fintech, big tech, after-school tutoring, cryptocurrency, and carbon emissions over the past nine months underpin this major regulatory reset.</p>\n<p><i><b>Economic implications:</b></i> Under the new governance paradigm, China appears to be attempting to check the rise in corporate power and rebalance the share of the economy in favor of labor, which could result in decline in corporate profit share. We see regulatory head- winds for sectors associated with rising tensions of social inequality, environmental sustainability, and data security risks, while the new framework provides policy support to advanced manufacturing, tech localization, and renewable energy. We remain watchful of the risk of over-regulation, or, in contrast, resumption of offshore (Hong Kong) IPOs for tech companies, clarity over employment benefits and other issues concerning platform companies, progress on audit access dis- pute resolution, and clearer guidance from top policymakers to curb spillover effects of regulation changes.</p>\n<p><b><i>Investment implications:</i></b> We expect a longer and more profound impact from the current regulatory cycle on China's equity market valuations and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) than has occurred in sim- ilar past cycles, as it is affecting a more substantial proportion of the market than previously and, in particular, the Internet sector, which accounts for ~40% of MSCI China by index weight. There is a substan- tial degree of uncertainty over what this means both for future net income margins and revenue growth for the affected sectors and stocks.</p>\n<p>Our current base case forward P/E target for MSCI China of 13.0x implies MSCI China would trade on a mid-single-digit percentage val- uation discount to MSCI EM ex China for a sustained period of time. Over time we expect the MSCI China universe to gradually have a more balanced sector allocation with a reduced weight for Internet and a higher weight for sectors like Industrials and IT.</p>\n<p><i><b>Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme</b></i>: Data-heavy tech and platform companies and property could remain under pressure amid the regulatory reset, while semi localization, cybersecurity, domestic brands catering to the mass market, innovative drugs, bio- tech, and green economy may enjoy support.</p>\n<p><b>5&nbsp;Key Charts at a Glance</b></p>\n<p>A shift from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability...<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da734c8c3853c4f5e3ef9f420b44128\" tg-width=\"1384\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ef8f29c3d6672ff460eb2c2f53e4bd\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6b44f17975c68e81956d1f48f1a1f\" tg-width=\"1420\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28739534c43a8f4ad6130734def1060e\" tg-width=\"1396\" tg-height=\"998\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081b21f4492f2e201aa01ce3bf0cc0cf\" tg-width=\"1442\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e0b9b6480a2b1c9c338ece5db0f691\" tg-width=\"1378\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2a916e7de802073a0628962cc2cfe6\" tg-width=\"1114\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab4ef36aba8f43d66471c352d81a93f\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Understanding China's Regulatory Reset</b></p>\n<p>New era, new objective...</p>\n<p>We believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a shift in China's governance priorities from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability – i.e., security, self-sufficiency, and social equality. In the last decade Beijing said its key goal was to double per capita income and eliminate absolute poverty (President Xi’s inaugural speech in Nov. 2012), i.e., giving highest priority to growth. However, this \"pro-growth\" strategy also led to higher inequality and social problems due to lack of regulations on emerging sectors, pointing to the importance of \"pro-poor\" measures as a complement (see World Bank (2004): Pro-growth, pro-poor: Is there a tradeoff?). Now, the government is emphasizing “getting rich together” (common prosperity) as the new objective for the next stage of development in the midst of the CCP's 100-year anniversary, and aims to \"prevent the unbridled expansion of capital\" by intro- ducing a range of KPIs besides economic growth, which covers social equality, supply chain self-sufficiency and data security in the face of rising secular risks – income inequality, US-China tensions, and aging demographics.</p>\n<p>Reflecting this reorientation, policymakers have intensified regu- lations in the past 9 months over fintech, big tech (anti-trust, data regulation and employee protection), after-school tutoring, crypto- currency, carbon emissions and overseas IPO rules. The anti-trust campaign has mainly targeted the prevention of tech giants from an over-concentration of market power and eroding welfare of smaller businesses and outsourced employees; the fintech regulation serves&nbsp;the purpose of curbing regulatory arbitrage and financial stability risks; and the increased scrutiny over Chinese ADRs and cross-border data flow in July 2021 mainly focuses on reducing risks of security amid lingering geopolitical tensions. Similarly, the recent regulatory changes to after-school tutoring are part of policy efforts to reduce child-raising costs.</p>\n<p>In short, China is trying to rebalance the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and this may lead to some systematic de-rating in valuations for some sectors. Having said that, policymakers will have to strike a balance, as China's ambition to thrive as an economic super power will require it to ensure con- tinued private sector vitality to spur innovation and further RMB internationalization to attract capital inflows, so as to sustain long- term productivity growth. While the new regulations introduce more requirements on social responsibility and data usage, and might lead to some increase in margin pressures for related enterprises, we think they will not disrupt business models for most sectors (except for after-school tutoring). For instance, the anti-trust law mainly focuses on banning tech-giants from requiring merchants to sign exclusive cooperation pacts, while the government's guidance on enhancing flexible workers' social benefits mainly requires food delivery platforms to pay healthcare and pension coverage for out- sourced employees. Online goods sales have also held up quite well recently despite the tech regulation campaign starting from late last year. Meanwhile, some regulatory changes are supportive for advanced manufacturing, hardware localization, and clean energy supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed81f65a92f4b2731263273025f4a53\" tg-width=\"1108\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0dce11e47f8023f88a4ab2622f89e6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">...but history rhymes</p>\n<p>While many of the regulations appear long-overdue and make sense (for example on fintech, anti-trust and outsourced labour protec- tion), the pace of changes in last 9 months has caught the market off-guard as a seemingly arbitrary shift in direction.</p>\n<p>Why has it occurred in such fashion? We have indeed seen this movie many times: China’s regulatory environments have tended to oscillate between relaxed and tight enforcement, especially in emerging sectors. But this has tended to result in an abrupt regula- tory reset. Before the current reversal in regulating big tech, China had a regulation campaign on mining (2006-2009), dairy (2008- 2010), high-end dining and liquor (2013-2014), irrational capital out-&nbsp;flows (2016-17), gaming (2018), and drugs (2018-2019) – most lasting for one to two years. The sharp shifts in regulatory changes have been largely due to the fact that regulations have tended to lag a period of exponential growth in the sector:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Relaxed stage: Local government support, pro-growth men- tality and business interests together contributed to a lag in regulating emerging sectors.</li>\n <li>Tight regulation stage: When a problem is looming as evi- denced by public opinion and/or financial stability indicators, the top leadership shifts gears, quickly mobilizes all administra- tive resources to reorientate its policy control and bolster its regulatory capacity.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cb4228c860070dfebe954a1a937a1e\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the abrupt shifts in policy tend to hurt market confi- dence and would benefit from more clarity: In past regulatory cycles, capital markets usually underperformed at the start, reflecting weaker market sentiment in the face of policy uncertainty, suggesting the need for greater policy communication. Historical patterns suggest that as an initial step to restore private sector confi- dence, minister-level officials attempt to clarify policy goals publicly. But if this communication is insufficient to temper concern and even- tually weakness in private confidence hurts the job market, top-level policymakers tend to step in.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Here we can take 2H18 as an example, when the triple headwinds of deleveraging, regulatory tightening, and US-China trade tensions triggered market concerns about \"state advances, private sector retreats\". By then, while policymakers already shifted to an easing stance in July 2018 with PBoC's targeted RRR cut, followed by the Ministry of Finance's urge to accelerate local govt. bond issuance in August 2018, it did not stop the deterioration in broad credit growth&nbsp;and private sector confidence. In response, China's President con- vened a forum with entrepreneurs in November 2018 to send a clear signal on supporting private firms.</p>\n<p>We also see a similar pattern emerging from the government in trying to provide clarity in this cycle. For instance, China's Vice Premier spoke at a business forum on July 27, saying that the nation would \"strike a balance between growth and safety, to ensure social fairness and competition, and promote healthy development of the capital market\". According to Bloomberg, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also told major investment banks on July 28 that the education policies were targeted and not intended to hurt com- panies in other industries. Separately, the government of Zhejiang province (one of China's richest provinces) clarified in mid-July that the “common prosperity initiative” does not mean \"absolute equal\". We will be watchful on the potential impact of intensified regulations on private sector confidence, and see if the existing government clari- fications are sufficient to restore market sentiment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a679cb541385fed3b741397ff984c65\" tg-width=\"1134\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What is next?</b></p>\n<p>The salient shift of governance priorities from “growth first” to bal- anced growth and sustainability means that sectoral regulations will likely continue to be realigned with the broader goals of social equality and national security. We thus see potential new regulation and/or detailed implementation plans in the coming years for sectors associated with the rising tensions of income and wealth inequality, rapid fertility decline, environment, and national security risks amid post-Covid de-globalization.</p>\n<p>That said, as aforementioned, we think these regulations are more about rebalancing the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and would not necessarily view them through the lens of “state vs. private”. Therefore, while we expect regulatory tightening on data-rich tech firms, platform companies, property developers to continue, sectors in-line with China's new economic agenda should continue to get support, such as semiconductor local- ization, cybersecurity software, innovative biotech and pharmaceu- tical companies with well-differentiated drugs, mass consumption/ domestic brands, vocational training, and green economy-related investment. For more equity investment analysis, please refer to</p>\n<p>China Equity Strategy: Implications for Long-Term Valuation and ROE; Opportunities amid Headwinds &amp; Tailwinds . Understanding China's Regulatory Reset&nbsp;Are there signposts to help us navigate the outlook based on past regulatory changes?</p>\n<p>While China’s regulatory changes appear less transparent than western counterparts, we do observe similar cycles marked succes- sively by early warning signs, the formal process of drafting and releasing the regulatory documents, and official remarks signaling the end of the campaigns.</p>\n<p>1. Early warning signs: These include increased social aware- ness/anxiety, public discussions, and meaningful deterioration in major macro level indicators, usually lasting 1-2 years (or possibly longer). For example, the latest crackdown on after- school tutoring followed top leaders’ negative assessment of the sector’s impact on children back in Sep-2018, but rapid growth continued, imposing a significant financial burden on middle income households. The antitrust campaign on tech giants was preceded by years of discussion over the contro- versy from \"pick one from two\" – a practice that came under the spotlight in 2015, which means platforms force merchants to have exclusive partnerships or distribution channels. Meanwhile, prominent macro-level regulatory campaigns include the financial cleanup since 2017 (following the five- year rapid rise in debt-to-GDP ratios) and capacity cuts in 2016-18 (following multiyear PPI deflation that further deep- ened in 2015).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5352ef9df13a439c37493e9a8ca53c\" tg-width=\"1126\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. The start of the formal regulatory cycle: This is usually marked either by approval of draft regulations at high-level government meetings or the release of a publicly accessible version for comment. The final document usually publishes 9-12 months later. For example, the latest regulatory docu- ment on capital market irregularities had been drafted and approved last November. In addition, the government will often release detailed plans for implementation, accompa- nying the original (and usually high-level) guidelines.</p>\n<p>3. Signs of reaching the final stages: For regulatory campaigns that have progressed relatively more smoothly, policymakers usually declare good results in high-level meetings – such as&nbsp;\"decisive progress in the three critical battles against poverty, pollution and financial risk\" at the 2021 NPC. On the other hand, for campaigns that brought about meaningful side effects, policymakers tended to soften their stance by, for example, calling for more market- or law-based implementa- tions (e.g., the latter stage of the supply side reforms). In rare cases when private sentiment was severely undermined on a broad scale, China's top leadership has reaffirmed its policy support with measures such as VAT cuts, lower social insur- ance payment ratio, better funding support, and further reforms and opening up.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc249af2f4c828e1675a81878fef5910\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"966\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Emergence of new norm following the regulatory shocks:</b> Past experiences suggest that each regulatory wave tends to last for 1-2 years, during the start of which capital markets usually underper- formed amid rising risk premiums, but eventually the real economy and capital market adjusted to the new policy framework. As we argued above, most of the ongoing regulation (except for after- school tutoring) mainly focuses on striking a balance between the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation rather than aiming to revamp or terminate prevailing business models. In this sense, we believe the key signposts for an end to the current tech regulatory cycle could include:</p>\n<p>1. A resumption of offshore IPOs by Chinese firms within less data-sensitive sub-sectors,</p>\n<p>2. A systematic improvement in key digital platforms’ social ben- efit packages for flexible workers, and</p>\n<p>3. Major fintech companies getting the greenlight for IPOs after fully complying with regulatory requirements.</p>\n<p><b>Key policy risks to watch</b></p>\n<p>We think the key risks lie mainly in China's endogenous growth momentum and external funding. First, while our base case assumes that policymakers can strike a balance between regulation and pri- vate sector vitality under the new policy framework, an inherent tendency to over-regulate could stifle private sector confidence and innovation. Second, a lack of sufficient communication and coordina- tion would not only disrupt business operations, but could also dis- courage foreign investment amid additional informational and cultural barriers. These could slow the pace of capital formation and undermine overall productivity growth in the economy.</p>\n<p>Although some short-term pain arising from overdue regulation that follows a prolonged period of unregulated growth is inevitable, we see ways of mitigating the policy overhang.</p>\n<p>1. A more anticipatory regulation framework and forward guid- ance for emerging industries could offer greater visibility and transparency, giving businesses sufficient time to adjust.</p>\n<p>2. On policy coordination, regulatory policies would benefit from being pursued in an integrated manner in order to reduce trade-offs and maximize synergies. For example, it might be true that technology in the data era could boost growth, but it could also worsen income inequality, given its effect of favouring capital over labour and favouring skilled over unskilled labour. However, policymakers could narrow income disparities and help to defuse potential negative social impact by accelerating the urbanization 2.0 strategy and increasing fiscal transfers to optimize the social protection network.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30308333dcaae51b19d9d6df98163daa\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113659023","content_text":"Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It could rebalance the share of economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more profound market impact.\n\nNew objective triggering major regulatory reset: We are at a signifi- cant moment in the history of China’s economy and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shifting governance priorities from growth to balancing growth and sustainability: social equality, data security, and self-sufficiency. China's new regulations on fintech, big tech, after-school tutoring, cryptocurrency, and carbon emissions over the past nine months underpin this major regulatory reset.\nEconomic implications: Under the new governance paradigm, China appears to be attempting to check the rise in corporate power and rebalance the share of the economy in favor of labor, which could result in decline in corporate profit share. We see regulatory head- winds for sectors associated with rising tensions of social inequality, environmental sustainability, and data security risks, while the new framework provides policy support to advanced manufacturing, tech localization, and renewable energy. We remain watchful of the risk of over-regulation, or, in contrast, resumption of offshore (Hong Kong) IPOs for tech companies, clarity over employment benefits and other issues concerning platform companies, progress on audit access dis- pute resolution, and clearer guidance from top policymakers to curb spillover effects of regulation changes.\nInvestment implications: We expect a longer and more profound impact from the current regulatory cycle on China's equity market valuations and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) than has occurred in sim- ilar past cycles, as it is affecting a more substantial proportion of the market than previously and, in particular, the Internet sector, which accounts for ~40% of MSCI China by index weight. There is a substan- tial degree of uncertainty over what this means both for future net income margins and revenue growth for the affected sectors and stocks.\nOur current base case forward P/E target for MSCI China of 13.0x implies MSCI China would trade on a mid-single-digit percentage val- uation discount to MSCI EM ex China for a sustained period of time. Over time we expect the MSCI China universe to gradually have a more balanced sector allocation with a reduced weight for Internet and a higher weight for sectors like Industrials and IT.\nChallenges and opportunities by segment/theme: Data-heavy tech and platform companies and property could remain under pressure amid the regulatory reset, while semi localization, cybersecurity, domestic brands catering to the mass market, innovative drugs, bio- tech, and green economy may enjoy support.\n5 Key Charts at a Glance\nA shift from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability...Challenges and opportunities by segment/themeUnderstanding China's Regulatory Reset\nNew era, new objective...\nWe believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a shift in China's governance priorities from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability – i.e., security, self-sufficiency, and social equality. In the last decade Beijing said its key goal was to double per capita income and eliminate absolute poverty (President Xi’s inaugural speech in Nov. 2012), i.e., giving highest priority to growth. However, this \"pro-growth\" strategy also led to higher inequality and social problems due to lack of regulations on emerging sectors, pointing to the importance of \"pro-poor\" measures as a complement (see World Bank (2004): Pro-growth, pro-poor: Is there a tradeoff?). Now, the government is emphasizing “getting rich together” (common prosperity) as the new objective for the next stage of development in the midst of the CCP's 100-year anniversary, and aims to \"prevent the unbridled expansion of capital\" by intro- ducing a range of KPIs besides economic growth, which covers social equality, supply chain self-sufficiency and data security in the face of rising secular risks – income inequality, US-China tensions, and aging demographics.\nReflecting this reorientation, policymakers have intensified regu- lations in the past 9 months over fintech, big tech (anti-trust, data regulation and employee protection), after-school tutoring, crypto- currency, carbon emissions and overseas IPO rules. The anti-trust campaign has mainly targeted the prevention of tech giants from an over-concentration of market power and eroding welfare of smaller businesses and outsourced employees; the fintech regulation serves the purpose of curbing regulatory arbitrage and financial stability risks; and the increased scrutiny over Chinese ADRs and cross-border data flow in July 2021 mainly focuses on reducing risks of security amid lingering geopolitical tensions. Similarly, the recent regulatory changes to after-school tutoring are part of policy efforts to reduce child-raising costs.\nIn short, China is trying to rebalance the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and this may lead to some systematic de-rating in valuations for some sectors. Having said that, policymakers will have to strike a balance, as China's ambition to thrive as an economic super power will require it to ensure con- tinued private sector vitality to spur innovation and further RMB internationalization to attract capital inflows, so as to sustain long- term productivity growth. While the new regulations introduce more requirements on social responsibility and data usage, and might lead to some increase in margin pressures for related enterprises, we think they will not disrupt business models for most sectors (except for after-school tutoring). For instance, the anti-trust law mainly focuses on banning tech-giants from requiring merchants to sign exclusive cooperation pacts, while the government's guidance on enhancing flexible workers' social benefits mainly requires food delivery platforms to pay healthcare and pension coverage for out- sourced employees. Online goods sales have also held up quite well recently despite the tech regulation campaign starting from late last year. Meanwhile, some regulatory changes are supportive for advanced manufacturing, hardware localization, and clean energy supply chain....but history rhymes\nWhile many of the regulations appear long-overdue and make sense (for example on fintech, anti-trust and outsourced labour protec- tion), the pace of changes in last 9 months has caught the market off-guard as a seemingly arbitrary shift in direction.\nWhy has it occurred in such fashion? We have indeed seen this movie many times: China’s regulatory environments have tended to oscillate between relaxed and tight enforcement, especially in emerging sectors. But this has tended to result in an abrupt regula- tory reset. Before the current reversal in regulating big tech, China had a regulation campaign on mining (2006-2009), dairy (2008- 2010), high-end dining and liquor (2013-2014), irrational capital out- flows (2016-17), gaming (2018), and drugs (2018-2019) – most lasting for one to two years. The sharp shifts in regulatory changes have been largely due to the fact that regulations have tended to lag a period of exponential growth in the sector:\n\nRelaxed stage: Local government support, pro-growth men- tality and business interests together contributed to a lag in regulating emerging sectors.\nTight regulation stage: When a problem is looming as evi- denced by public opinion and/or financial stability indicators, the top leadership shifts gears, quickly mobilizes all administra- tive resources to reorientate its policy control and bolster its regulatory capacity.However, the abrupt shifts in policy tend to hurt market confi- dence and would benefit from more clarity: In past regulatory cycles, capital markets usually underperformed at the start, reflecting weaker market sentiment in the face of policy uncertainty, suggesting the need for greater policy communication. Historical patterns suggest that as an initial step to restore private sector confi- dence, minister-level officials attempt to clarify policy goals publicly. But if this communication is insufficient to temper concern and even- tually weakness in private confidence hurts the job market, top-level policymakers tend to step in.\n\nHere we can take 2H18 as an example, when the triple headwinds of deleveraging, regulatory tightening, and US-China trade tensions triggered market concerns about \"state advances, private sector retreats\". By then, while policymakers already shifted to an easing stance in July 2018 with PBoC's targeted RRR cut, followed by the Ministry of Finance's urge to accelerate local govt. bond issuance in August 2018, it did not stop the deterioration in broad credit growth and private sector confidence. In response, China's President con- vened a forum with entrepreneurs in November 2018 to send a clear signal on supporting private firms.\nWe also see a similar pattern emerging from the government in trying to provide clarity in this cycle. For instance, China's Vice Premier spoke at a business forum on July 27, saying that the nation would \"strike a balance between growth and safety, to ensure social fairness and competition, and promote healthy development of the capital market\". According to Bloomberg, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also told major investment banks on July 28 that the education policies were targeted and not intended to hurt com- panies in other industries. Separately, the government of Zhejiang province (one of China's richest provinces) clarified in mid-July that the “common prosperity initiative” does not mean \"absolute equal\". We will be watchful on the potential impact of intensified regulations on private sector confidence, and see if the existing government clari- fications are sufficient to restore market sentiment.What is next?\nThe salient shift of governance priorities from “growth first” to bal- anced growth and sustainability means that sectoral regulations will likely continue to be realigned with the broader goals of social equality and national security. We thus see potential new regulation and/or detailed implementation plans in the coming years for sectors associated with the rising tensions of income and wealth inequality, rapid fertility decline, environment, and national security risks amid post-Covid de-globalization.\nThat said, as aforementioned, we think these regulations are more about rebalancing the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and would not necessarily view them through the lens of “state vs. private”. Therefore, while we expect regulatory tightening on data-rich tech firms, platform companies, property developers to continue, sectors in-line with China's new economic agenda should continue to get support, such as semiconductor local- ization, cybersecurity software, innovative biotech and pharmaceu- tical companies with well-differentiated drugs, mass consumption/ domestic brands, vocational training, and green economy-related investment. For more equity investment analysis, please refer to\nChina Equity Strategy: Implications for Long-Term Valuation and ROE; Opportunities amid Headwinds & Tailwinds . Understanding China's Regulatory Reset Are there signposts to help us navigate the outlook based on past regulatory changes?\nWhile China’s regulatory changes appear less transparent than western counterparts, we do observe similar cycles marked succes- sively by early warning signs, the formal process of drafting and releasing the regulatory documents, and official remarks signaling the end of the campaigns.\n1. Early warning signs: These include increased social aware- ness/anxiety, public discussions, and meaningful deterioration in major macro level indicators, usually lasting 1-2 years (or possibly longer). For example, the latest crackdown on after- school tutoring followed top leaders’ negative assessment of the sector’s impact on children back in Sep-2018, but rapid growth continued, imposing a significant financial burden on middle income households. The antitrust campaign on tech giants was preceded by years of discussion over the contro- versy from \"pick one from two\" – a practice that came under the spotlight in 2015, which means platforms force merchants to have exclusive partnerships or distribution channels. Meanwhile, prominent macro-level regulatory campaigns include the financial cleanup since 2017 (following the five- year rapid rise in debt-to-GDP ratios) and capacity cuts in 2016-18 (following multiyear PPI deflation that further deep- ened in 2015).2. The start of the formal regulatory cycle: This is usually marked either by approval of draft regulations at high-level government meetings or the release of a publicly accessible version for comment. The final document usually publishes 9-12 months later. For example, the latest regulatory docu- ment on capital market irregularities had been drafted and approved last November. In addition, the government will often release detailed plans for implementation, accompa- nying the original (and usually high-level) guidelines.\n3. Signs of reaching the final stages: For regulatory campaigns that have progressed relatively more smoothly, policymakers usually declare good results in high-level meetings – such as \"decisive progress in the three critical battles against poverty, pollution and financial risk\" at the 2021 NPC. On the other hand, for campaigns that brought about meaningful side effects, policymakers tended to soften their stance by, for example, calling for more market- or law-based implementa- tions (e.g., the latter stage of the supply side reforms). In rare cases when private sentiment was severely undermined on a broad scale, China's top leadership has reaffirmed its policy support with measures such as VAT cuts, lower social insur- ance payment ratio, better funding support, and further reforms and opening up.\nEmergence of new norm following the regulatory shocks: Past experiences suggest that each regulatory wave tends to last for 1-2 years, during the start of which capital markets usually underper- formed amid rising risk premiums, but eventually the real economy and capital market adjusted to the new policy framework. As we argued above, most of the ongoing regulation (except for after- school tutoring) mainly focuses on striking a balance between the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation rather than aiming to revamp or terminate prevailing business models. In this sense, we believe the key signposts for an end to the current tech regulatory cycle could include:\n1. A resumption of offshore IPOs by Chinese firms within less data-sensitive sub-sectors,\n2. A systematic improvement in key digital platforms’ social ben- efit packages for flexible workers, and\n3. Major fintech companies getting the greenlight for IPOs after fully complying with regulatory requirements.\nKey policy risks to watch\nWe think the key risks lie mainly in China's endogenous growth momentum and external funding. First, while our base case assumes that policymakers can strike a balance between regulation and pri- vate sector vitality under the new policy framework, an inherent tendency to over-regulate could stifle private sector confidence and innovation. Second, a lack of sufficient communication and coordina- tion would not only disrupt business operations, but could also dis- courage foreign investment amid additional informational and cultural barriers. These could slow the pace of capital formation and undermine overall productivity growth in the economy.\nAlthough some short-term pain arising from overdue regulation that follows a prolonged period of unregulated growth is inevitable, we see ways of mitigating the policy overhang.\n1. A more anticipatory regulation framework and forward guid- ance for emerging industries could offer greater visibility and transparency, giving businesses sufficient time to adjust.\n2. On policy coordination, regulatory policies would benefit from being pursued in an integrated manner in order to reduce trade-offs and maximize synergies. For example, it might be true that technology in the data era could boost growth, but it could also worsen income inequality, given its effect of favouring capital over labour and favouring skilled over unskilled labour. However, policymakers could narrow income disparities and help to defuse potential negative social impact by accelerating the urbanization 2.0 strategy and increasing fiscal transfers to optimize the social protection network.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895460676,"gmtCreate":1628766306995,"gmtModify":1676529847111,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895460676","repostId":"2158936289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158936289","pubTimestamp":1628734800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2158936289?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Unstoppable Investments Everyone Needs in Their Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158936289","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments can help boost your savings and build long-term wealth.","content":"<p>Building a strong investment portfolio can be challenging, because there are seemingly limitless options to choose from. If you're new to the stock market, all of those choices can be overwhelming.</p>\n<p>The good news is that it's easier than you may think to create a solid core portfolio. These three types of investments are a fantastic choice regardless of where you are on your investing journey, and they can help send your savings to the moon.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F638446%2Fperson-holding-hundred-dollar-bills-copy-2.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h2>1. S&amp;P 500 ETFs</h2>\n<p>An <b>S&amp;P 500</b> ETF is a group of stocks that is designed to mirror the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index itself. That means each of these funds contains around 500 stocks from the largest U.S.-based companies.</p>\n<p>This type of investment is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the more stable and lower-risk options. While the S&amp;P 500 does experience short-term volatility, it's earned an average rate of return of around 10% per year since its inception. In other words, the highs and lows each year average out to around 10% annually over time.</p>\n<p>These funds are also very likely to recover from market crashes. The S&amp;P 500 has endured countless corrections and crashes over the years, but it's survived each and every one so far. Although there are never any guarantees in investing, there's a very good chance it will recover from any future crashes as well.</p>\n<p><b>Where to get started:</b> There are many S&amp;P 500 ETFs to choose from, and they're all similar. Some of the best options include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">S&amp;P500 ETF</a> </b></li>\n</ul>\n<h2>2. Growth ETFs</h2>\n<p>A growth ETF is a fund that contains stocks with higher-than-average growth rates. The advantage of this type of investment is that you may earn higher returns than you would with a broad-market fund like an S&amp;P 500 ETF.</p>\n<p>The downside, though, is that growth ETFs can be on the riskier side. High-growth stocks can be more volatile than their more established counterparts, so you may see more ups and downs with this type of fund than you would with an S&amp;P 500 ETF.</p>\n<p>That said, many growth ETFs include companies that have experienced phenomenal growth but are also strong businesses, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>. These organizations are still subject to volatility in the short term, but it's very likely they'll experience long-term growth.</p>\n<p><b>Where to get started:</b> It's important to choose carefully when investing in a growth ETF, because not all funds are created equal. Some funds only contain smaller organizations from niche industries, for example, which poses more risk than a fund that includes large corporations from a variety of industries. A few of the stronger growth ETFs include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUG\">Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IWO\">iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">NASDAQ-100 Index ETF</a> </b></li>\n</ul>\n<h2>3. Dividend ETFs</h2>\n<p>A dividend ETF is a collection of stocks that will actually pay you to own them. Some companies pay a portion of their profits back to shareholders each quarter or year, which is called a dividend. By investing in a dividend ETF, you'll earn quarterly or annual dividend payments in addition to the fund's normal earnings.</p>\n<p>By investing consistently over time, you could build a source of passive income with dividend ETFs. Most funds also offer the opportunity to reinvest your dividends and buy more shares of that particular ETF. By reinvesting, you can gradually buy more shares without having to pay more money out of pocket. And the more shares you own, the more you'll receive in dividends.</p>\n<p><b>Where to get started:</b> As with growth ETFs, all dividend ETFs are different and offer varying levels of risk and reward. Some of the most popular funds include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIG\">Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDV\">iShares Core High Dividend ETF</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</a> </b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Choosing the right investments isn't as challenging as it may seem. By building a portfolio filled with solid funds, you'll be on your way to generating long-term wealth.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Unstoppable Investments Everyone Needs in Their Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Unstoppable Investments Everyone Needs in Their Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/11/3-unstoppable-investments-everyone-needs-in-their/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Building a strong investment portfolio can be challenging, because there are seemingly limitless options to choose from. If you're new to the stock market, all of those choices can be overwhelming.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/11/3-unstoppable-investments-everyone-needs-in-their/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","IWO":"罗素2000成长股指数ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","HDV":"iShares High Dividend Equity Fun","VIG":"股利增长指数ETF-Vanguard","VUG":"成长股指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SCHD":"Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/11/3-unstoppable-investments-everyone-needs-in-their/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158936289","content_text":"Building a strong investment portfolio can be challenging, because there are seemingly limitless options to choose from. If you're new to the stock market, all of those choices can be overwhelming.\nThe good news is that it's easier than you may think to create a solid core portfolio. These three types of investments are a fantastic choice regardless of where you are on your investing journey, and they can help send your savings to the moon.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. S&P 500 ETFs\nAn S&P 500 ETF is a group of stocks that is designed to mirror the performance of the S&P 500 index itself. That means each of these funds contains around 500 stocks from the largest U.S.-based companies.\nThis type of investment is one of the more stable and lower-risk options. While the S&P 500 does experience short-term volatility, it's earned an average rate of return of around 10% per year since its inception. In other words, the highs and lows each year average out to around 10% annually over time.\nThese funds are also very likely to recover from market crashes. The S&P 500 has endured countless corrections and crashes over the years, but it's survived each and every one so far. Although there are never any guarantees in investing, there's a very good chance it will recover from any future crashes as well.\nWhere to get started: There are many S&P 500 ETFs to choose from, and they're all similar. Some of the best options include:\n\nVanguard S&P 500 ETF \niShares Core S&P 500 ETF \nS&P500 ETF \n\n2. Growth ETFs\nA growth ETF is a fund that contains stocks with higher-than-average growth rates. The advantage of this type of investment is that you may earn higher returns than you would with a broad-market fund like an S&P 500 ETF.\nThe downside, though, is that growth ETFs can be on the riskier side. High-growth stocks can be more volatile than their more established counterparts, so you may see more ups and downs with this type of fund than you would with an S&P 500 ETF.\nThat said, many growth ETFs include companies that have experienced phenomenal growth but are also strong businesses, such as Amazon.com, Apple, and Microsoft. These organizations are still subject to volatility in the short term, but it's very likely they'll experience long-term growth.\nWhere to get started: It's important to choose carefully when investing in a growth ETF, because not all funds are created equal. Some funds only contain smaller organizations from niche industries, for example, which poses more risk than a fund that includes large corporations from a variety of industries. A few of the stronger growth ETFs include:\n\nVanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares \niShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF \nNASDAQ-100 Index ETF \n\n3. Dividend ETFs\nA dividend ETF is a collection of stocks that will actually pay you to own them. Some companies pay a portion of their profits back to shareholders each quarter or year, which is called a dividend. By investing in a dividend ETF, you'll earn quarterly or annual dividend payments in addition to the fund's normal earnings.\nBy investing consistently over time, you could build a source of passive income with dividend ETFs. Most funds also offer the opportunity to reinvest your dividends and buy more shares of that particular ETF. By reinvesting, you can gradually buy more shares without having to pay more money out of pocket. And the more shares you own, the more you'll receive in dividends.\nWhere to get started: As with growth ETFs, all dividend ETFs are different and offer varying levels of risk and reward. Some of the most popular funds include:\n\nVanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares \niShares Core High Dividend ETF \nSchwab US Dividend Equity ETF \n\nChoosing the right investments isn't as challenging as it may seem. By building a portfolio filled with solid funds, you'll be on your way to generating long-term wealth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891586616,"gmtCreate":1628400057535,"gmtModify":1703505882914,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891586616","repostId":"1155656235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155656235","pubTimestamp":1628227304,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155656235?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-06 13:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155656235","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector\nAnalysts see stellar sales ","content":"<p>Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78101d8010e186fe4df59b2ef82b5de6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Analysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)</span></p>\n<p>U.S. investors remain bullish, despite rumblings out of China and the spike in delta variant infections.</p>\n<p>Cloud companies — those at the forefront of the shift in computing power to distributed models over the internet — are expected to grow at a rapid clip over the next several years, and four of the five largest exchange traded funds covering the space are close to hitting record highs.</p>\n<p>Below is a screen of stocks held by those ETFs, showing which are expected to increase their sales the most through 2023. In an industry with many players at relatively early stages, increases in sales, rather than in earnings, might be the best driver of stock prices.</p>\n<p>To begin the screen, we looked at the five largest cloud ETFs:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36209ce827d95e822cad5128be8b146a\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"664\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p>ETFs might be your best way to take a broad approach for a long-term play on the cloud revolution. If you are interested in any ETF, you should review the fund manager’s website.</p>\n<p>Here’s a comparison of total returns through Aug. 4, along with those for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF&nbsp;and the Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index) for comparison:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242f135b3c7cca3cbaae3ee574023c1f\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"577\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p>The ETFs’ approaches differ. For example, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF&nbsp;is the only one that is actively managed. The others track an index. It is also the only one that holds shares of Tesla Inc.,which makes up 10.65% of the portfolio, according to information posted by ARK Invest on Aug. 5. Tesla is an electric-vehicle manufacturer, but it can also be considered a cloud company because it distributes software updates over the internet continually, and offers other cloud-based services.</p>\n<p>Another holding unique to ARKW among the five cloud ETFs is Walt Disney Co.,which is certainly an important cloud player through its Disney+ streaming service, even if the company doesn’t say directly how much of its sales are derived from that rapidly growing segment.</p>\n<p>As part of its description of ARKW, FactSet says the following:</p>\n<p><i>“Broadly speaking, the ARKW’s managers appear focused on big buzzwords such as Internet of Things, cloud computing, digital currencies and wearable technology. While the fund’s focus may be appealing for investors with conviction in these new technologies, portfolio implementation is a more difficult task: Most of the companies developing these advancements are huge corporations for which nascent technologies are only a small fraction of total revenues. As such, it’s very difficult to get pure-play access to ARKW’s targeted technologies — so be sure to confirm that the fund’s holdings — not just its thesis — align with your view of the space.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Cloud-stock screen</b></p>\n<p>Together, the five cloud ETFs listed above hold 147 stocks. To project sales growth through 2023, we used calendar 2020 sales estimates as a baseline and then looked at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the subsequent three years, if available. (The 2020 numbers are estimates, because many companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar.)</p>\n<p>To make sure we had a solid set of estimates, we confined the group to the 126 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, for which consensus sales estimates for calendar 2020 through calendar 2023 are available.</p>\n<p>Here are the 20 companies projected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517a23591cde159fb889ab80abc4bcc6\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"765\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af2cf5b5f9f0ce50f8f023ac7babc7f\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"717\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b88ebe72e09cb9ce3294269f0a4ae431\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p>There are actually 21 stocks listed, including Zillow Group Inc.’s Class A&nbsp;and Class C&nbsp;shares.</p>\n<p>It is interesting to see that the list is dominated by stocks held by ARKW. The fund has a broad definition of cloud companies and is focused also on sales growth.</p>\n<p>Here are current forward price-to-sales ratios based on consensus estimates for the next 12 months, as well as ratios of current market cap to projected 2023 sales and summaries of analysts’ opinions about the stocks.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b9c4bf1d8b1abcfa76b7d008a47ad7\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"805\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff191189c5d7d2f31698843734ca3cc\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"773\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9543489c4d52d3f1a69dfdcf170115\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"242\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p>In comparison, the forward price-to-sales ratio for SPY is 2.8, with a price/2023 estimated sales ratio of 2.6. For QQQ, the current P/S is 4.7, declining to 4.3 for 2023.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-06 13:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-cloud-stocks-expected-to-increase-sales-the-most-over-the-next-two-years-11628186683?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector\nAnalysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)\nU.S. investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-cloud-stocks-expected-to-increase-sales-the-most-over-the-next-two-years-11628186683?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MELI":"MercadoLibre","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","Z":"Zillow","PDD":"拼多多","SKLZ":"Skillz Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉","SNAP":"Snap Inc","KC":"金山云","LC":"LendingClub","ADYEY":"Adyen N.V.","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","ZG":"Zillow Class A","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","VCYT":"Veracyte Inc","ROKU":"Roku Inc","SQ":"Block","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-cloud-stocks-expected-to-increase-sales-the-most-over-the-next-two-years-11628186683?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155656235","content_text":"Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector\nAnalysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)\nU.S. investors remain bullish, despite rumblings out of China and the spike in delta variant infections.\nCloud companies — those at the forefront of the shift in computing power to distributed models over the internet — are expected to grow at a rapid clip over the next several years, and four of the five largest exchange traded funds covering the space are close to hitting record highs.\nBelow is a screen of stocks held by those ETFs, showing which are expected to increase their sales the most through 2023. In an industry with many players at relatively early stages, increases in sales, rather than in earnings, might be the best driver of stock prices.\nTo begin the screen, we looked at the five largest cloud ETFs:\nSource: FactSet\nETFs might be your best way to take a broad approach for a long-term play on the cloud revolution. If you are interested in any ETF, you should review the fund manager’s website.\nHere’s a comparison of total returns through Aug. 4, along with those for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF and the Invesco QQQ Trust (which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index) for comparison:\nSource: FactSet\nThe ETFs’ approaches differ. For example, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF is the only one that is actively managed. The others track an index. It is also the only one that holds shares of Tesla Inc.,which makes up 10.65% of the portfolio, according to information posted by ARK Invest on Aug. 5. Tesla is an electric-vehicle manufacturer, but it can also be considered a cloud company because it distributes software updates over the internet continually, and offers other cloud-based services.\nAnother holding unique to ARKW among the five cloud ETFs is Walt Disney Co.,which is certainly an important cloud player through its Disney+ streaming service, even if the company doesn’t say directly how much of its sales are derived from that rapidly growing segment.\nAs part of its description of ARKW, FactSet says the following:\n“Broadly speaking, the ARKW’s managers appear focused on big buzzwords such as Internet of Things, cloud computing, digital currencies and wearable technology. While the fund’s focus may be appealing for investors with conviction in these new technologies, portfolio implementation is a more difficult task: Most of the companies developing these advancements are huge corporations for which nascent technologies are only a small fraction of total revenues. As such, it’s very difficult to get pure-play access to ARKW’s targeted technologies — so be sure to confirm that the fund’s holdings — not just its thesis — align with your view of the space.”\nCloud-stock screen\nTogether, the five cloud ETFs listed above hold 147 stocks. To project sales growth through 2023, we used calendar 2020 sales estimates as a baseline and then looked at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the subsequent three years, if available. (The 2020 numbers are estimates, because many companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar.)\nTo make sure we had a solid set of estimates, we confined the group to the 126 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, for which consensus sales estimates for calendar 2020 through calendar 2023 are available.\nHere are the 20 companies projected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023:\n\nSource: FactSet\nThere are actually 21 stocks listed, including Zillow Group Inc.’s Class A and Class C shares.\nIt is interesting to see that the list is dominated by stocks held by ARKW. The fund has a broad definition of cloud companies and is focused also on sales growth.\nHere are current forward price-to-sales ratios based on consensus estimates for the next 12 months, as well as ratios of current market cap to projected 2023 sales and summaries of analysts’ opinions about the stocks.\n\nSource: FactSet\nIn comparison, the forward price-to-sales ratio for SPY is 2.8, with a price/2023 estimated sales ratio of 2.6. For QQQ, the current P/S is 4.7, declining to 4.3 for 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808179816,"gmtCreate":1627566894935,"gmtModify":1703492523614,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!&nbsp;","listText":"Nice!&nbsp;","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808179816","repostId":"2154099201","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154099201","pubTimestamp":1627384921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154099201?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 19:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 of the Fastest-Growing Stocks on the Planet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154099201","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Sales for these companies are expected to increase between 270% and 1,100% over the next four or five years.","content":"<p>For over 12 years, growth stocks have been the talk of Wall Street -- and with good reason. Persistently low lending rates have allowed fast-growing companies abundant access to cheap capital that they've been able to use to hire new employees, acquire other businesses, and innovate for the future. With the nation's central bank standing firm on its monetary policy, at least in the near-term, growth stocks should continue to thrive.</p>\n<p>Of course, not all growth stocks are created equally. The following five companies are projected by Wall Street to be some of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet over the next four or five years, assuming analysts' sales projections (per <b>FactSet</b>) come to fruition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccad26103b3c97bbb65d0cad160f21b9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>: Implied five-year sales growth of 819%</h2>\n<p>Among cloud stocks, you'd struggle to find a company with a persistently higher annualized growth rate than <b>Snowflake</b> (NYSE:SNOW). After bringing in $592 million in full-year sales in fiscal 2021, Wall Street is looking for the company to deliver $5.44 billion in annual sales in fiscal 2026.</p>\n<p>What really has Wall Street excited are Snowflake's plain-as-day competitive advantages. Most notably, its cloud data-warehousing solutions are layered atop the most-popular infrastructure storage solutions. Whereas it can be difficult for businesses to share data that's stored on competing cloud service providers, this sharing of information is seamless for Snowflake's customers.</p>\n<p>Snowflake also shunned the subscription-based operating model in favor of a pay-as-you-go model. By charging its clients for the amount of data stored and the number of Snowflake Compute Credits used, the company is making its pricing transparent and potentially more cost-effective for users.</p>\n<p>While there's no question Snowflake is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet, where the company's stock should be valued is debatable. Though some premium is merited for such consistently high growth rates, I'm not so sure paying 71 times sales for this year makes sense for a company that's still many years away from profitability. There may not be significant downside here, but I also fail to see how this valuation stretches much further to the upside.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df219df7b01fbc2aa008c455f28b99e5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Teladoc Health: Implied five-year sales growth of 416%</h2>\n<p>Healthcare stocks on the leading edge of innovation are a pretty good bet to be among the fastest-growing stocks on the planet through mid-decade. Telehealth services giant <b>Teladoc Health</b> (NYSE:TDOC) is expected to see its annual sales climb from a reported $1.09 billion in 2020 to an estimated $5.62 billion by 2025. That's an increase of 416%, for those of you keeping score at home.</p>\n<p>Even though Teladoc found itself in an ideal scenario in 2020, with the coronavirus pandemic wreaking havoc in the U.S., this was a company growing sales by an annualized average of 74% in the six years leading up to the pandemic. In other words, we're clearly not talking about a one-hit wonder.</p>\n<p>Telemedicine is the future of healthcare in the U.S. and globally. While not all appointments can be conducted virtually, telehealth visits will provide added convenience for patients and make it considerably easier for doctor's to keep tabs on patients with chronic illnesses. This ease-of-use should result in improved patient outcomes, which'll mean less money out of the pockets of insurers.</p>\n<p>Teladoc's rapid growth is also a function of its buyout of applied health signals company Livongo Health in the fourth quarter. Livongo leans on artificial intelligence to send its chronically ill members tips to help them lead healthier lives. It ended the first quarter with 658,000 diabetes members, and the company was already profitable before being bought out by Teladoc. As a combined company, this duo looks unstoppable.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F635018%2Fsquare-cash-card-cash-app.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Square.</span></p>\n<h2>Square: Implied five-year sales growth of 299%</h2>\n<p>Fintech stock <b>Square</b> (NYSE:SQ) is also projected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on the planet through the midpoint of the decade. Following its sales surge in 2020 to $9.5 billion, Wall Street's consensus for 2025 is that it'll bring in $37.86 billion. That's a hair shy of a quadrupling in sales in five years.</p>\n<p>Square's most foundational growth driver, its seller ecosystem, will continue to point the needle higher. The amount of gross payment volume (GPV) traversing its network grew by an annualized average of 49% in the seven years leading up to the pandemic, but tailed off considerably in 2020 as merchants closed up shop due to the pandemic. With the U.S. economy reopening, Square looks to be on track for strong double-digit GPV growth this year.</p>\n<p>However, the company's key growth driver is digital peer-to-peer platform Cash App. Cash App's monthly active user count more than quintupled since the end of 2017 to 36 million, and it's been a consistently more popular download than <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b>'s Venmo.&nbsp; All told, Cash App allows Square to generate revenue from bank transfers, merchant purchases, and investments, which includes <b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;exchange and trading.</p>\n<p>As of the end of 2020, the typical Cash App user was generating $41 in gross profit for Square, compared to less than $5 to acquire each new monthly active user. That's a heck of a trade-off that should make Square's shareholders very happy.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c8c7cdfeae935529dbccbf6b0c507c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Jushi Holdings: Implied four-year sales growth of 1,100%</h2>\n<p>The U.S. cannabis industry is home to a number of companies that'll deliver triple-digit sales growth over the next four or five years. But marijuana stock <b>Jushi Holdings</b> (OTC:JUSHF) might have them all beat, with sales growth expected to hit 1,100% by 2024 ($81 million in 2020 to $972 million in 2024).</p>\n<p>Compared to other multistate operators, Jushi is a tiny tot. It has 20 operational dispensaries at the moment, with 13 of those retail locations in Pennsylvania. The real key to Jushi's strategy is targeting markets that offer some level of competitive protection. That's why it's chosen to focus on Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia.</p>\n<p>While all three of these markets offer billion-dollar annual sales potential -- Illinois surpassed $1 billion in weed sales for the first time in 2020 -- the real lure is that they limit how many retail licenses are issued in total, as well as to individual businesses. Pennsylvania and Illinois have preset caps in place, whereas Virginia assigns licenses based on jurisdiction. This effectively limits Jushi's competition and ensures it'll be able to build up its brand and grab a loyal following.</p>\n<p>Investors should also note that, despite its relatively small market cap, Jushi isn't afraid to go shopping. In January, the company acquired two dispensaries in California, the largest weed market in the world by annual sales.&nbsp; It also bought its way into Nevada in April.&nbsp; The Silver State is projected to lead the country in cannabis spending per capita by mid-decade. In other words, smart planning by management has Jushi set up for some serious growth.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd808070a9dde55f37210b59edc2e23\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.</span></p>\n<h2>Tesla Motors: Implied five-year sales growth of 270%</h2>\n<p>A final company most investors know well that has supercharged growth potential over the next five years is electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer <b>Tesla Motors</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla brought in $31.5 billion in full-year sales in 2020, but Wall Street's consensus has the company pegged for $116.64 billion in sales by 2025.</p>\n<p>Tesla is a clear and obvious beneficiary of the U.S. and most developed countries wanting to pursue cleaner energy solutions in order to reduce long-term carbon dioxide emissions. It's the first automaker in more than five decades to successfully build itself from the ground up to mass production, and it offers definitive first-mover advantages in the United States.</p>\n<p>In particular, Tesla Motors' battery technology remains unsurpassed, at least for the time being. The company's batteries have better range, more power, and higher capacity than the competition. Considering that cash is no longer a concern, the company has more than enough capital to continue constructing new Gigafactories to assemble its vehicles and produce batteries.</p>\n<p>But like Snowflake, valuation is a serious concern. You'd think a company with a $620 billion market cap, as of this past weekend, would be able to generate a profit from the products or services it sells. That's not the case with Tesla. Its adjusted profits have always come from selling renewable energy credits to other automakers or selling its digital assets (Bitcoin) for a profit. Based solely on its operating performance, Tesla still isn't making money. That makes its existing valuation dicey, at best.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 of the Fastest-Growing Stocks on the Planet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 of the Fastest-Growing Stocks on the Planet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 19:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/5-of-the-fastest-growing-stocks-on-the-planet/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For over 12 years, growth stocks have been the talk of Wall Street -- and with good reason. Persistently low lending rates have allowed fast-growing companies abundant access to cheap capital that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/5-of-the-fastest-growing-stocks-on-the-planet/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake","TSLA":"特斯拉","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","SQ":"Block","JUSHF":"Jushi Holdings Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/5-of-the-fastest-growing-stocks-on-the-planet/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154099201","content_text":"For over 12 years, growth stocks have been the talk of Wall Street -- and with good reason. Persistently low lending rates have allowed fast-growing companies abundant access to cheap capital that they've been able to use to hire new employees, acquire other businesses, and innovate for the future. With the nation's central bank standing firm on its monetary policy, at least in the near-term, growth stocks should continue to thrive.\nOf course, not all growth stocks are created equally. The following five companies are projected by Wall Street to be some of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet over the next four or five years, assuming analysts' sales projections (per FactSet) come to fruition.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nSnowflake: Implied five-year sales growth of 819%\nAmong cloud stocks, you'd struggle to find a company with a persistently higher annualized growth rate than Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW). After bringing in $592 million in full-year sales in fiscal 2021, Wall Street is looking for the company to deliver $5.44 billion in annual sales in fiscal 2026.\nWhat really has Wall Street excited are Snowflake's plain-as-day competitive advantages. Most notably, its cloud data-warehousing solutions are layered atop the most-popular infrastructure storage solutions. Whereas it can be difficult for businesses to share data that's stored on competing cloud service providers, this sharing of information is seamless for Snowflake's customers.\nSnowflake also shunned the subscription-based operating model in favor of a pay-as-you-go model. By charging its clients for the amount of data stored and the number of Snowflake Compute Credits used, the company is making its pricing transparent and potentially more cost-effective for users.\nWhile there's no question Snowflake is one of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet, where the company's stock should be valued is debatable. Though some premium is merited for such consistently high growth rates, I'm not so sure paying 71 times sales for this year makes sense for a company that's still many years away from profitability. There may not be significant downside here, but I also fail to see how this valuation stretches much further to the upside.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nTeladoc Health: Implied five-year sales growth of 416%\nHealthcare stocks on the leading edge of innovation are a pretty good bet to be among the fastest-growing stocks on the planet through mid-decade. Telehealth services giant Teladoc Health (NYSE:TDOC) is expected to see its annual sales climb from a reported $1.09 billion in 2020 to an estimated $5.62 billion by 2025. That's an increase of 416%, for those of you keeping score at home.\nEven though Teladoc found itself in an ideal scenario in 2020, with the coronavirus pandemic wreaking havoc in the U.S., this was a company growing sales by an annualized average of 74% in the six years leading up to the pandemic. In other words, we're clearly not talking about a one-hit wonder.\nTelemedicine is the future of healthcare in the U.S. and globally. While not all appointments can be conducted virtually, telehealth visits will provide added convenience for patients and make it considerably easier for doctor's to keep tabs on patients with chronic illnesses. This ease-of-use should result in improved patient outcomes, which'll mean less money out of the pockets of insurers.\nTeladoc's rapid growth is also a function of its buyout of applied health signals company Livongo Health in the fourth quarter. Livongo leans on artificial intelligence to send its chronically ill members tips to help them lead healthier lives. It ended the first quarter with 658,000 diabetes members, and the company was already profitable before being bought out by Teladoc. As a combined company, this duo looks unstoppable.\nImage source: Square.\nSquare: Implied five-year sales growth of 299%\nFintech stock Square (NYSE:SQ) is also projected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on the planet through the midpoint of the decade. Following its sales surge in 2020 to $9.5 billion, Wall Street's consensus for 2025 is that it'll bring in $37.86 billion. That's a hair shy of a quadrupling in sales in five years.\nSquare's most foundational growth driver, its seller ecosystem, will continue to point the needle higher. The amount of gross payment volume (GPV) traversing its network grew by an annualized average of 49% in the seven years leading up to the pandemic, but tailed off considerably in 2020 as merchants closed up shop due to the pandemic. With the U.S. economy reopening, Square looks to be on track for strong double-digit GPV growth this year.\nHowever, the company's key growth driver is digital peer-to-peer platform Cash App. Cash App's monthly active user count more than quintupled since the end of 2017 to 36 million, and it's been a consistently more popular download than PayPal's Venmo.  All told, Cash App allows Square to generate revenue from bank transfers, merchant purchases, and investments, which includes Bitcoin exchange and trading.\nAs of the end of 2020, the typical Cash App user was generating $41 in gross profit for Square, compared to less than $5 to acquire each new monthly active user. That's a heck of a trade-off that should make Square's shareholders very happy.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nJushi Holdings: Implied four-year sales growth of 1,100%\nThe U.S. cannabis industry is home to a number of companies that'll deliver triple-digit sales growth over the next four or five years. But marijuana stock Jushi Holdings (OTC:JUSHF) might have them all beat, with sales growth expected to hit 1,100% by 2024 ($81 million in 2020 to $972 million in 2024).\nCompared to other multistate operators, Jushi is a tiny tot. It has 20 operational dispensaries at the moment, with 13 of those retail locations in Pennsylvania. The real key to Jushi's strategy is targeting markets that offer some level of competitive protection. That's why it's chosen to focus on Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia.\nWhile all three of these markets offer billion-dollar annual sales potential -- Illinois surpassed $1 billion in weed sales for the first time in 2020 -- the real lure is that they limit how many retail licenses are issued in total, as well as to individual businesses. Pennsylvania and Illinois have preset caps in place, whereas Virginia assigns licenses based on jurisdiction. This effectively limits Jushi's competition and ensures it'll be able to build up its brand and grab a loyal following.\nInvestors should also note that, despite its relatively small market cap, Jushi isn't afraid to go shopping. In January, the company acquired two dispensaries in California, the largest weed market in the world by annual sales.  It also bought its way into Nevada in April.  The Silver State is projected to lead the country in cannabis spending per capita by mid-decade. In other words, smart planning by management has Jushi set up for some serious growth.\nA Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.\nTesla Motors: Implied five-year sales growth of 270%\nA final company most investors know well that has supercharged growth potential over the next five years is electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla brought in $31.5 billion in full-year sales in 2020, but Wall Street's consensus has the company pegged for $116.64 billion in sales by 2025.\nTesla is a clear and obvious beneficiary of the U.S. and most developed countries wanting to pursue cleaner energy solutions in order to reduce long-term carbon dioxide emissions. It's the first automaker in more than five decades to successfully build itself from the ground up to mass production, and it offers definitive first-mover advantages in the United States.\nIn particular, Tesla Motors' battery technology remains unsurpassed, at least for the time being. The company's batteries have better range, more power, and higher capacity than the competition. Considering that cash is no longer a concern, the company has more than enough capital to continue constructing new Gigafactories to assemble its vehicles and produce batteries.\nBut like Snowflake, valuation is a serious concern. You'd think a company with a $620 billion market cap, as of this past weekend, would be able to generate a profit from the products or services it sells. That's not the case with Tesla. Its adjusted profits have always come from selling renewable energy credits to other automakers or selling its digital assets (Bitcoin) for a profit. Based solely on its operating performance, Tesla still isn't making money. That makes its existing valuation dicey, at best.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803312267,"gmtCreate":1627416472559,"gmtModify":1703489450239,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803312267","repostId":"1151272378","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174519436,"gmtCreate":1627109938425,"gmtModify":1703484431850,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174519436","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192458370?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175613341,"gmtCreate":1627028208983,"gmtModify":1703482737880,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175613341","repostId":"1112567098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112567098","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627048219,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112567098?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 21:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112567098","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China consider","content":"<p>(July 23)&nbsp;Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading.&nbsp;Bloomberg&nbsp;report&nbsp;that,&nbsp;China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b057d861059cc83420bcf9edf2a465\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>China is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.</p>\n<p>In rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the people said.</p>\n<p>Local regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.</p>\n<p>The new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</p>\n<p>“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”</p>\n<p>New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.</p>\n<p>Beijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.</p>\n<p>Making the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”</p>\n<p>Education technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.</p>\n<p>Beijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.</p>\n<p>Last month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.</p>\n<p>Several high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.</p>\n<p>Shares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Gaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-23 21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 23)&nbsp;Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading.&nbsp;Bloomberg&nbsp;report&nbsp;that,&nbsp;China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b057d861059cc83420bcf9edf2a465\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>China is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.</p>\n<p>In rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the people said.</p>\n<p>Local regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.</p>\n<p>The new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</p>\n<p>“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”</p>\n<p>New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.</p>\n<p>Beijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.</p>\n<p>Making the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”</p>\n<p>Education technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.</p>\n<p>Beijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.</p>\n<p>Last month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.</p>\n<p>Several high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.</p>\n<p>Shares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Gaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112567098","content_text":"(July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.\n\nChina is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.\nIn rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, one of the people said.\nLocal regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.\nThe new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.\n“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”\nNew Oriental Education & Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.\nBeijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.\nMaking the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”\nEducation technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.\nBeijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.\nLast month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.\nSeveral high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.\nShares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.\nGaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144186180,"gmtCreate":1626271761940,"gmtModify":1703756828166,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144186180","repostId":"1144812338","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144812338","pubTimestamp":1626134605,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144812338?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed's Complete Taper Timeline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144812338","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Commenting on the Fed's recent communications debacle, Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer writ","content":"<p>Commenting on the Fed's recent communications debacle, Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer writes that the Fed was getting high marks for its communication \"up until the last meeting where the message got jumbled.\" Specifically, in light of the stunned market reaction following the last meeting, many commentators declared that the Fed had abandoned Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), which Meyer strongly disagree with, conceding that while a growing number of Fed officials have become uncomfortable with rising inflation and are looking to remove accommodation faster, the reality is that Chair Powell and the majority of the Committee have not given up on FAIT. Indeed, Meyer notes, \"the gut reaction of the markets pulling forward rates hikes to 4Q 22 following the last meeting proved fleeting as the market has subsequently pushed out the first hike back to 1Q23.\"</p>\n<p>To help navigate the Fed's communication error, Meyer provides a guide for understanding the Fed’s (latest) reaction function and communication.</p>\n<p><b>First, the Taper</b></p>\n<p>Here Chair Powell has been crystal clear: the Fed will slowly guide the markets toward the taper. BofA shows the taper timeline in the chart below, with its expectations overlaid.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d762173d94ce966d288af0927ed478c\" tg-width=\"1205\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>While Meyer concedes that it is possible for the Fed to signal tapering at the upcoming meeting in July, the BofA economist remain doubtful.<b>The reason to wait is that the market isn’t pricing in the announcement at this meeting, and the Fed wouldn’t want to risk surprising the market.</b>In the last meeting, Powell stated that taper was still “a ways away”. But on the other hand, they have been providing hints that an earlier move is possible, and the surprise will be minimal. Financial conditions are also very accommodative with yields significantly lower making it less painful if rates reset higher upon a taper announcement. Combining these two, BofA thinks it is much more likely that they signal in September.</p>\n<p>There is also a risk of the Fed pulling forward the actual taper from BofA's current forecast of January to perhaps December or even November.<b>This depends on how much quantitative guidance the Fed offers along with the taper signal.</b>According to Meyer, if the Fed is clear that they want to see a certain amount of job creation in order to taper - such as a range for the employment-to-population ratio or progress on the jobs deficit - it will be easier to wait to execute taper. Another option would be to offer calendar guidance but this seems to run counter to Powell’s desire for policy to be “outcome based” rather than “outlook based.” If the Fed keeps the language vague arguing for “substantial further progress”, it seems to leave options open.</p>\n<p><b>What about hikes</b></p>\n<p>The Fed laid out the criteria to hike rates as three-fold:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>inflation needs to reach 2% and stay there for a year;</b></li>\n <li><b>conditions be met to believe that inflation can run moderately above 2% allowing for the overshoot to offset the undershoot;</b></li>\n <li><b>maximum employment to be met with broad-based labor market recovery.</b></li>\n</ol>\n<p>The first has been satisfied. We are on the way to meeting the second, although doubts remain - especially among the FOMC - given the potential transitory nature of inflation. The third criteria hasn’t been satisfied and also a likely needed for the second to be met.</p>\n<p>The challenge, as Meyer explains, with declaring victory on the inflation overshoot is that we are vulnerable to inflation falling back below the target – at least temporarily – next year. For simplicity, let’s focus on the biggest source of transitory inflation: vehicles (defined here as used cars and trucks, rental cars and new vehicles). This makes up around 5% of core PCE. Over the last two months, about 40bp of the 1.2% gain in core PCE owed to these categories. To put this into perspective, if these categories were unchanged, core PCE would have been 0.48% mom in April (2.9% yoy) and 0.31% in May (3.0% yoy). For illustrative purposes, BofA also ran scenarios for %yoy core PCE inflation through next year based on the following paths for car prices: full mean reversion to preCOVID levels, 50% reversal and 25% reversal, assuming trend core inflation of 2.0% in all other categories. This would lead to core PCE of 1.3%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, as shown on the chart below.<b>This shows the sensitivity of inflation to a singular volatile category.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c7e3244a3f667a109b3b32257842ff\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The path toward maximum employment is also uncertain for two reasons:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>it is unclear how much of the decline in the labor force will prove permanent; and</li>\n <li>the Fed has changed the definition of maximum employment.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>For the former, BofA has previously estimated that the vast majority of those that dropped out of the labor force will be able to return with about half of the decline likely directly attributable to the pandemic. However,<b>about 1.2 million reflects earlier retirement which is unlikely reversible.</b>This will make it more challenging to fully recover the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP). Perhaps a work-around is to look for the prime-working age EPOP to<b>return to pre-pandemic levels which can be achieved by March 2022 based on BofA's employment forecasts which currently is looking for a cumulative 5.9mn jobs to be created by 1Q 2022</b>.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f782420c64c9d0bcc2f0472be6c6f43\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The other consideration mentioned by BofA,<b>is that the Fed has changed its definition for maximum employment to be broad-based and \"inclusive.\"</b>This means that the recovery in the EPOP has to be felt throughout the population particularly for the most economically challenged cohort, i.e.,<b>no hikes until there is a surge in black employment</b>. To achieve this, it will require an even tighter labor market where the “fringe” of the labor market is offered greater opportunities. This in particular calls for the prime-age EPOP to exceed pre-pandemic levels, further pushing out when the Fed might declare victory. And since it is the minority workers who have repeatedly stated they will not return to the labor force unless they get far more preferential terms,<b>it is almost as if the Fed has engineered the current reaction function to one where it will continue to ease indefinitely and blame lack of \"recovery\" on black jobs for its refusal to stop the easing, as if injecting $120BN per month will somehow result in more black workers getting hired!</b></p>\n<p><b>The Committee: divided</b></p>\n<p>Last but not least, there is a growing divide on the Committee which complicates forward guidance. As of the June meeting there were 7 FOMC officials who expected hikes to start in 2022. According to BofA,<b>all of these officials are regional Fed Presidents</b>, some of whom have never fully embraced FAIT (below is Bloomberg's assumption of who is who on the dot plot).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d638c3c8a49237058a24159586030dba\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>And so, with the economy running strong and inflation pressures building – at least on the surface – these Fed officials are getting ready to remove accommodation. As BofA notes, this makes sense....<b>if you are still operating in the old regime:</b>remember that the Fed hiked rates for the first time with core PCE inflation well below target. The view was that it was preferable to slowly normalize policy based on expectations of future inflation and growth to avoid having to hike quickly and destabilize the recovery. Hence the challenge with keeping the new framework “flexible”. BofA believes the “core” of the Committee –<i><b>Powell, Brainard and Clarida</b></i>– are much more influential in setting the course for policy. The Board of Governors and NY Fed President Williams will generally be in agreement. It is this group that is still strongly committed to FAIT with more than a token overshoot of the 2% target, preferring to err on the side of too much rather than too little inflation. Moreover, they might not be as concerned about higher inflation: indeed, the Board staff forecast shows a slower trajectory for inflation based on the latest FOMC minutes. The Committee members’ voices will be heard and can influence the decisions of the FOMC with the force of their arguments. As such, Meyer's advice is to pay more attention to the centrist members of the FOMC – such as Bostic and Harker – whose arguments could resonate with the Board.</p>\n<p><b>Finally, markets, where we have seen a big moves in rates</b></p>\n<p>The bond market has had a significant rally; at 1.30% the 10-year is back to mid-February levels. In fact, the curve has also flattened significantly in a way that typically doesn’t happen until the hiking cycle has started. So what gives? According to BofA's in house rates expert, Mark Cabana, the move is partly technical, driven by investors closing out short positions and trend-following hedge funds exacerbating rate moves. But it could also reflect the market becoming increasingly worried about structurally lower growth and inflation once the cyclical lift fades. It may also be that the market is doubting the Fed’s resolve to overheat the economy and facilitate higher inflation. For what it's worth, Meyer says that while the former is a reasonable argument, she strongly disagrees with the argument that the Fed has already blinked. That's because Powell has been setting the stage for this new framework even before the pandemic - which was a welcome catalyst to implement FAIT - and sees this as a chance to reset monetary policy.</p>\n<p>In short: expect the flood of liquidity to continue for a long, long time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Complete Taper Timeline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Complete Taper Timeline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-complete-taper-timeline><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Commenting on the Fed's recent communications debacle, Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer writes that the Fed was getting high marks for its communication \"up until the last meeting where the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-complete-taper-timeline\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-complete-taper-timeline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144812338","content_text":"Commenting on the Fed's recent communications debacle, Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer writes that the Fed was getting high marks for its communication \"up until the last meeting where the message got jumbled.\" Specifically, in light of the stunned market reaction following the last meeting, many commentators declared that the Fed had abandoned Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), which Meyer strongly disagree with, conceding that while a growing number of Fed officials have become uncomfortable with rising inflation and are looking to remove accommodation faster, the reality is that Chair Powell and the majority of the Committee have not given up on FAIT. Indeed, Meyer notes, \"the gut reaction of the markets pulling forward rates hikes to 4Q 22 following the last meeting proved fleeting as the market has subsequently pushed out the first hike back to 1Q23.\"\nTo help navigate the Fed's communication error, Meyer provides a guide for understanding the Fed’s (latest) reaction function and communication.\nFirst, the Taper\nHere Chair Powell has been crystal clear: the Fed will slowly guide the markets toward the taper. BofA shows the taper timeline in the chart below, with its expectations overlaid.\n\nWhile Meyer concedes that it is possible for the Fed to signal tapering at the upcoming meeting in July, the BofA economist remain doubtful.The reason to wait is that the market isn’t pricing in the announcement at this meeting, and the Fed wouldn’t want to risk surprising the market.In the last meeting, Powell stated that taper was still “a ways away”. But on the other hand, they have been providing hints that an earlier move is possible, and the surprise will be minimal. Financial conditions are also very accommodative with yields significantly lower making it less painful if rates reset higher upon a taper announcement. Combining these two, BofA thinks it is much more likely that they signal in September.\nThere is also a risk of the Fed pulling forward the actual taper from BofA's current forecast of January to perhaps December or even November.This depends on how much quantitative guidance the Fed offers along with the taper signal.According to Meyer, if the Fed is clear that they want to see a certain amount of job creation in order to taper - such as a range for the employment-to-population ratio or progress on the jobs deficit - it will be easier to wait to execute taper. Another option would be to offer calendar guidance but this seems to run counter to Powell’s desire for policy to be “outcome based” rather than “outlook based.” If the Fed keeps the language vague arguing for “substantial further progress”, it seems to leave options open.\nWhat about hikes\nThe Fed laid out the criteria to hike rates as three-fold:\n\ninflation needs to reach 2% and stay there for a year;\nconditions be met to believe that inflation can run moderately above 2% allowing for the overshoot to offset the undershoot;\nmaximum employment to be met with broad-based labor market recovery.\n\nThe first has been satisfied. We are on the way to meeting the second, although doubts remain - especially among the FOMC - given the potential transitory nature of inflation. The third criteria hasn’t been satisfied and also a likely needed for the second to be met.\nThe challenge, as Meyer explains, with declaring victory on the inflation overshoot is that we are vulnerable to inflation falling back below the target – at least temporarily – next year. For simplicity, let’s focus on the biggest source of transitory inflation: vehicles (defined here as used cars and trucks, rental cars and new vehicles). This makes up around 5% of core PCE. Over the last two months, about 40bp of the 1.2% gain in core PCE owed to these categories. To put this into perspective, if these categories were unchanged, core PCE would have been 0.48% mom in April (2.9% yoy) and 0.31% in May (3.0% yoy). For illustrative purposes, BofA also ran scenarios for %yoy core PCE inflation through next year based on the following paths for car prices: full mean reversion to preCOVID levels, 50% reversal and 25% reversal, assuming trend core inflation of 2.0% in all other categories. This would lead to core PCE of 1.3%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, as shown on the chart below.This shows the sensitivity of inflation to a singular volatile category.\n\nThe path toward maximum employment is also uncertain for two reasons:\n\nit is unclear how much of the decline in the labor force will prove permanent; and\nthe Fed has changed the definition of maximum employment.\n\nFor the former, BofA has previously estimated that the vast majority of those that dropped out of the labor force will be able to return with about half of the decline likely directly attributable to the pandemic. However,about 1.2 million reflects earlier retirement which is unlikely reversible.This will make it more challenging to fully recover the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP). Perhaps a work-around is to look for the prime-working age EPOP toreturn to pre-pandemic levels which can be achieved by March 2022 based on BofA's employment forecasts which currently is looking for a cumulative 5.9mn jobs to be created by 1Q 2022.\n\nThe other consideration mentioned by BofA,is that the Fed has changed its definition for maximum employment to be broad-based and \"inclusive.\"This means that the recovery in the EPOP has to be felt throughout the population particularly for the most economically challenged cohort, i.e.,no hikes until there is a surge in black employment. To achieve this, it will require an even tighter labor market where the “fringe” of the labor market is offered greater opportunities. This in particular calls for the prime-age EPOP to exceed pre-pandemic levels, further pushing out when the Fed might declare victory. And since it is the minority workers who have repeatedly stated they will not return to the labor force unless they get far more preferential terms,it is almost as if the Fed has engineered the current reaction function to one where it will continue to ease indefinitely and blame lack of \"recovery\" on black jobs for its refusal to stop the easing, as if injecting $120BN per month will somehow result in more black workers getting hired!\nThe Committee: divided\nLast but not least, there is a growing divide on the Committee which complicates forward guidance. As of the June meeting there were 7 FOMC officials who expected hikes to start in 2022. According to BofA,all of these officials are regional Fed Presidents, some of whom have never fully embraced FAIT (below is Bloomberg's assumption of who is who on the dot plot).\n\nAnd so, with the economy running strong and inflation pressures building – at least on the surface – these Fed officials are getting ready to remove accommodation. As BofA notes, this makes sense....if you are still operating in the old regime:remember that the Fed hiked rates for the first time with core PCE inflation well below target. The view was that it was preferable to slowly normalize policy based on expectations of future inflation and growth to avoid having to hike quickly and destabilize the recovery. Hence the challenge with keeping the new framework “flexible”. BofA believes the “core” of the Committee –Powell, Brainard and Clarida– are much more influential in setting the course for policy. The Board of Governors and NY Fed President Williams will generally be in agreement. It is this group that is still strongly committed to FAIT with more than a token overshoot of the 2% target, preferring to err on the side of too much rather than too little inflation. Moreover, they might not be as concerned about higher inflation: indeed, the Board staff forecast shows a slower trajectory for inflation based on the latest FOMC minutes. The Committee members’ voices will be heard and can influence the decisions of the FOMC with the force of their arguments. As such, Meyer's advice is to pay more attention to the centrist members of the FOMC – such as Bostic and Harker – whose arguments could resonate with the Board.\nFinally, markets, where we have seen a big moves in rates\nThe bond market has had a significant rally; at 1.30% the 10-year is back to mid-February levels. In fact, the curve has also flattened significantly in a way that typically doesn’t happen until the hiking cycle has started. So what gives? According to BofA's in house rates expert, Mark Cabana, the move is partly technical, driven by investors closing out short positions and trend-following hedge funds exacerbating rate moves. But it could also reflect the market becoming increasingly worried about structurally lower growth and inflation once the cyclical lift fades. It may also be that the market is doubting the Fed’s resolve to overheat the economy and facilitate higher inflation. For what it's worth, Meyer says that while the former is a reasonable argument, she strongly disagrees with the argument that the Fed has already blinked. That's because Powell has been setting the stage for this new framework even before the pandemic - which was a welcome catalyst to implement FAIT - and sees this as a chance to reset monetary policy.\nIn short: expect the flood of liquidity to continue for a long, long time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145067959,"gmtCreate":1626183793271,"gmtModify":1703755004391,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great read!&nbsp;","listText":"Great read!&nbsp;","text":"Great read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145067959","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185154176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p>\n<p>It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p>\n<p>Here’s why.</p>\n<p>We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p>\n<p><b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p>\n<p>Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p>\n<p>Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p>\n<p>Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p>\n<p>Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p>\n<p>You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p>\n<p>Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p>\n<p><b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p>\n<p>Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p>\n<p>“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p>\n<p>Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p>\n<p>For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p>\n<p>Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p>\n<p><b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p>\n<p>Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p>\n<p><b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p>\n<p>We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p>\n<p>This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p>\n<p>True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p>\n<p><b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p>\n<p>As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p>\n<p><b>Three themes to follow</b></p>\n<p>If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p>\n<p><b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p>\n<p><b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148277824,"gmtCreate":1625983688168,"gmtModify":1703751644099,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148277824","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112201050?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p>\n<p>When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p>\n<p>It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p>\n<p>The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p>\n<p>That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p>\n<p>While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p>\n<p>Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p>\n<p>A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p>\n<p>“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p>\n<p>The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p>\n<p>Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p>\n<p>The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p>\n<p>Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p>\n<p>These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p>\n<p>To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p>\n<p>But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p>\n<p>“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p>\n<p>“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p>\n<p>Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p>\n<p>Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p>\n<p>But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p>\n<p>“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p>\n<p>The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p>\n<p>— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p>\n<p>It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p>\n<p>Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p>\n<p>With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p>\n<p>“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p>\n<p>Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p>\n<p>AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p>\n<p>Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p>\n<p>Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p>\n<p>In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p>\n<p>There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p>\n<p>For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p>\n<p>For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p>\n<p>New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p>\n<p>“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p>\n<p>Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p>\n<p>Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p>\n<p>The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p>\n<p>The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p>\n<p>Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p>\n<p>As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p>\n<p>To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p>\n<p>Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p>\n<p>Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p>\n<p>“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p>\n<p>“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p>\n<p>The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p>\n<p>Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p>\n<p>Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p>\n<p>In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p>\n<p>Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p>\n<p>Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-11 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居","BB":"黑莓","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","MRIN":"Marin Software Inc.","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","SCHW":"嘉信理财"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148992413,"gmtCreate":1625911057532,"gmtModify":1703750829663,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great opinion piece","listText":"Great opinion piece","text":"Great opinion piece","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148992413","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185154176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p>\n<p>It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p>\n<p>Here’s why.</p>\n<p>We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p>\n<p><b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p>\n<p>Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p>\n<p>Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p>\n<p>Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p>\n<p>Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p>\n<p>You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p>\n<p>Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p>\n<p><b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p>\n<p>Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p>\n<p>“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p>\n<p>Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p>\n<p>For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p>\n<p>Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p>\n<p><b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p>\n<p>Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p>\n<p><b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p>\n<p>We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p>\n<p>This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p>\n<p>True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p>\n<p><b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p>\n<p>As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p>\n<p><b>Three themes to follow</b></p>\n<p>If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p>\n<p><b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p>\n<p><b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148996681,"gmtCreate":1625910903843,"gmtModify":1703750827542,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148996681","repostId":"2150370120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150370120","pubTimestamp":1625879410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150370120?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 10 Cloud Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150370120","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"How can you capitalize on secular growth trends like digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, analytics, video streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and more? Last time, I covered stocks six through 10 on the list, and today I cover my top five!","content":"<p>Today, I cover my top high-conviction cloud stocks to buy on the next dip. These are high-growth software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cloud stocks that I currently hold in my $1.6 million long-term investing portfolio.</p>\n<p>If you aren't familiar with the terminology, SaaS is simply a component of cloud computing. SaaS refers to software hosted outside of your organization and offered as a subscription-based service. Overall, SaaS generally offers businesses lower total cost of ownership. The latest software updates and enhancements are generally done for you as the client, allowing businesses to have the latest and greatest without additional effort or overhead. Additionally, SaaS enables businesses to shift capital expenses to operating expenses, allowing them to stretch budgets from an accounting perspective.</p>\n<p>Cloud computing refers to servers that are connected through the internet, as well as the software, data centers, and databases that create an online network. Leveraging \"the cloud\" allows users and businesses to consume and analyze data without having to manage databases or software on their own physical, on-premises servers and machines.</p>\n<p>Digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, machine learning, centralized analytics, customer relationship management, enterprise resource planning (ERP), connected TV (CTV), streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and other secular growth trends fuel SaaS and cloud infrastructure. But what are the best stocks to buy in order to ride these waves and boost your portfolio?</p>\n<p>I'll provide 10 total stocks over two articles and videos. Today, I will cover stocks 1 through 10.</p>\n<p>#10.<b>salesforce.com</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:CRM) is the leader in customer relationship management (CRM). <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a> is a SaaS provider that enables organizations to integrate marketing, sales, service, e-commerce, and IT into a single customer view. Salesforce is acquiring<b>Slack</b> (NYSE:WORK), which has caused volatility in the stock. The leadership team has proven to shareholders many times that they can successfully acquire businesses and add value. I firmly believe that this acquisition will add tremendous value to Salesforce customers. The company plans to build Slack into its Service Cloud products, which will increase employee productivity from anywhere.</p>\n<p>#9.<b>DocuSign</b>(NASDAQ:DOCU) offers more than most people realize. Its business consists of four primary pillars -- manage, prepare, sign, and act -- which collectively are called the DocuSign Agreement Cloud. The company continues to expand offerings, and its recent earnings results prove it. For Q1 FY22, revenues grew 58% year over year to $469 million. Its billings also grew 54% year over year to $527 million with a 125% net dollar retention rate. The below video goes into more detail, breaking down the pillars and solutions.</p>\n<p>#8.<b>Twilio</b> (NYSE:TWLO) is often misunderstood. Sure, it helps companies like Uber and DoorDash connect customers to businesses, but what else does it do? Here is a list of solutions Twilio can offer:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Messaging:</b> You can send and receive SMS, MMS, and OTT messages globally (to and from over 180 countries) and in a scalable manner. For example, Twilio can be used to created automated replies to customers and route important requests to humans for additional interaction.</li>\n <li><b>Customer engagement:</b>Contact centers can leverage Twilio for customer engagement channels, and the tools can be quite complex. For example, Twilio offers AI-powered tools for customer self-service, automatic text notifications, callbacks, etc.</li>\n <li><b>Marketing:</b>Campaigns can use Twilio to send specific, customizable messages with the ability to track data such as click-through rates.</li>\n <li><b>Business email services:</b> Twilio can send and receive emails. Twilio SendGrid Email API allows businesses to create flexible, scalable, and engaging campaigns.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>#7<b>The Trade Desk</b> (NASDAQ:TTD) focuses on the ad-tech space, and it has a tremendous total addressable market (TAM) when you consider the possibilities in CTV. CTV means \"connected TV,\" which is essentially any television connected to the internet. Think<b>Roku</b> (NASDAQ:ROKU), YouTube, part of<b>Alphabet</b> (NASDAQ:GOOGL),<b>Amazon</b> Prime (NASDAQ:AMZN),<b>Disney</b>'s Disney+&nbsp;(NYSE:DIS), and others. Smart TVs are changing the internet, and buying The Trade Desk is the best way to play this space, in my opinion. The company allows its clients to buy advertisements or run global marketing campaigns in areas such as CTV, display ads, and even social media. These are massive secular growth trends, and The Trade Desk can help your portfolio capture some of this growth.</p>\n<p>#6.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) is the epitome of a work-from-home stock, but can it be a large part of the work-from-anywhere movement that is here to stay? The answer, in my opinion, is yes. Zoom is now a verb, and recently Charlie Munger told CNBC that he's \"in love with Zoom\" and thinks it's \"here to stay.\" I agree with him, and the below video shares more details as to why.</p>\n<p>In case you missed the last article, I'll provide some background. If you aren't familiar with the terminology, SaaS is simply a component of cloud computing. SaaS refers to software hosted outside of your organization and offered as a subscription-based service. SaaS generally offers businesses lower total cost of ownership. The latest software updates and enhancements are generally done for the client, allowing businesses to have the latest and greatest without additional effort or overhead. Additionally, SaaS enables businesses to shift capital expenses to operating expenses, allowing them to stretch budgets from an accounting perspective.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><i>Cloud computing</i> refers to servers that are connected through the internet, as well as the software, data centers, and databases that create an online network. Leveraging \"the cloud\" allows users and businesses to consume and analyze data without having to manage databases or software on their own physical, on-premises servers and machines.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, machine learning, centralized analytics, customer relationship management, enterprise resource planning (ERP), connected TV (CTV), streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and other secular growth trends fuel SaaS and cloud infrastructure. But what are the best stocks to buy in order to ride these waves and boost your portfolio?&nbsp;</p>\n<p>#5. <b>Zscaler</b> (NASDAQ:ZS) offers customers a security stack as a cloud service, which offers lower cost and complexity than \"old-school\" traditional gateway methods. Zscaler's global infrastructure brings internet gateways closer to users all around the world, creating a faster and more streamlined experience. The company enables work-from-anywhere cloud security in a highly scalable fashion.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>#4. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a></b> (NASDAQ:DDOG) provides monitoring and analytics tools that give IT teams insights from anywhere and at any time. Datadog, like Zscaler, is very scalable. In fact, most cloud-native providers are highly scalable, which is part of the reason they rank high on the list. Datadog brings information together from across an entire organization into a simple dashboard. Companies that leverage Datadog enjoy benefits such as improved user experience, faster resolutions to interruptions, and overall better business decisions.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Datadog has continuously improved its product suite as well as its partnership network. In fact, Datadog recently announced a new partnership with <b>Microsoft</b> (NASDAQ:DDOG) Azure, which allows streamlined experiences for configuration, purchasing, and even managing Datadog inside the Azure portal. Additionally, on July 1 Datadog announced a partnership with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a> to provide real-time monitoring and threat detection across the <b>Salesforce</b> (NASDAQ:DDOG)&nbsp;platform.</p>\n<p>From a product perspective, here are the highlights:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Application performance monitoring (APM) </b>provides visibility into application functionality and health.&nbsp;</li>\n <li><b>Infrastructure monitoring </b>allows businesses to monitor IT infrastructure.</li>\n <li><b>Log management </b>provides visualization and data for any performance problems.</li>\n <li><b>User experience monitoring </b>includes both synthetics and real user monitoring (RUM).</li>\n <li><b>Network performance monitoring </b>allows insights and analysis into network traffic flow from both hybrid and cloud environments.</li>\n <li><b>Incident management and continuous profiler </b>improves workflows.&nbsp;</li>\n <li><b>Security monitoring </b>provides threat detection.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>#3. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a></b> (NYSE:SNOW) offers what it calls a \"data warehouse-as-a-service\" (DaaS), a cloud-based data storage and analytics solution. Interestingly, Snowflake is not a SaaS company since its revenues are over 90% consumption based. Snowflake reduces cost and improves agility. Its data platform is unique in that it is not built on an existing big data platform.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>As you may have heard around the time of the IPO, Snowflake is backed by Warren Buffett's <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A). Snowflake's clients include <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL), <b>Nike</b> (NYSE:NKE), <b>Mastercard</b> (NYSE:MA), and many others. Snowflake is all about big data, and it deserves a top spot on the list.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>#2. <b>Cloudflare</b>'s (NYSE:NET) mission is to help \"build a better internet.\" Cloudflare is actually a network. In fact, it's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the larger networks on the planet. Cloudflare enables a faster and more secure internet for anyone with an internet presence. Cloudflare has data centers across the globe, and it boasts an astonishing 25 million internet properties, a number that grows daily. To date, Cloudflare handles over 17 percent of the Fortune 1000 internet requests, and the company handles 25 million HTTP requests every second on average. Cloudflare is all about the future of the internet, and it belongs in my portfolio as a long-term investment.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>#1 <b>Crowdstrike</b> (NASDAQ:CRWD) is the leader in endpoint security. Crowdstrike's Falcon platform stops breaches through both prevention and response, a process known as endpoint detection and response (EDR). It uses agent-based sensors that can be installed on Mac, Linux, and Windows. Crowdstrike relies on a cloud-hosted SaaS platform that manages data and prevents, detects, and responds to threats. Both malware and non-malware attacks are covered via Crowdstrike's cloud-delivered technologies in a lightweight solution.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Cyberattacks continue to be a major threat, and the total addressable market for cybersecurity is enormous. Crowdstrike has been a monster since its IPO in 2019, growing into a $60 billion market cap company. But I think Crowdstrike is just getting started, and it stands tall as my top high-conviction cloud/SaaS stock for the next decade.</p>\n<p>If you want deeper-dive analysis on these stocks, please watch the video below, where I cover these and many others in the cloud space. These growth stocks can boost your long-term investing portfolio, so please check out the below video and subscribe to make sure you stay on top of this sector.&nbsp;</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 Cloud Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 Cloud Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/top-10-cloud-stocks-to-buy-on-the-next-dip-part-ii/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Today, I cover my top high-conviction cloud stocks to buy on the next dip. These are high-growth software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cloud stocks that I currently hold in my $1.6 million long-term ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/top-10-cloud-stocks-to-buy-on-the-next-dip-part-ii/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDOG":"Datadog","ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","DOCU":"Docusign","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","CRM":"赛富时","SNOW":"Snowflake","ZM":"Zoom","TTD":"Trade Desk Inc.","NET":"Cloudflare, Inc.","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/top-10-cloud-stocks-to-buy-on-the-next-dip-part-ii/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150370120","content_text":"Today, I cover my top high-conviction cloud stocks to buy on the next dip. These are high-growth software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cloud stocks that I currently hold in my $1.6 million long-term investing portfolio.\nIf you aren't familiar with the terminology, SaaS is simply a component of cloud computing. SaaS refers to software hosted outside of your organization and offered as a subscription-based service. Overall, SaaS generally offers businesses lower total cost of ownership. The latest software updates and enhancements are generally done for you as the client, allowing businesses to have the latest and greatest without additional effort or overhead. Additionally, SaaS enables businesses to shift capital expenses to operating expenses, allowing them to stretch budgets from an accounting perspective.\nCloud computing refers to servers that are connected through the internet, as well as the software, data centers, and databases that create an online network. Leveraging \"the cloud\" allows users and businesses to consume and analyze data without having to manage databases or software on their own physical, on-premises servers and machines.\nDigital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, machine learning, centralized analytics, customer relationship management, enterprise resource planning (ERP), connected TV (CTV), streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and other secular growth trends fuel SaaS and cloud infrastructure. But what are the best stocks to buy in order to ride these waves and boost your portfolio?\nI'll provide 10 total stocks over two articles and videos. Today, I will cover stocks 1 through 10.\n#10.salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) is the leader in customer relationship management (CRM). Salesforce is a SaaS provider that enables organizations to integrate marketing, sales, service, e-commerce, and IT into a single customer view. Salesforce is acquiringSlack (NYSE:WORK), which has caused volatility in the stock. The leadership team has proven to shareholders many times that they can successfully acquire businesses and add value. I firmly believe that this acquisition will add tremendous value to Salesforce customers. The company plans to build Slack into its Service Cloud products, which will increase employee productivity from anywhere.\n#9.DocuSign(NASDAQ:DOCU) offers more than most people realize. Its business consists of four primary pillars -- manage, prepare, sign, and act -- which collectively are called the DocuSign Agreement Cloud. The company continues to expand offerings, and its recent earnings results prove it. For Q1 FY22, revenues grew 58% year over year to $469 million. Its billings also grew 54% year over year to $527 million with a 125% net dollar retention rate. The below video goes into more detail, breaking down the pillars and solutions.\n#8.Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) is often misunderstood. Sure, it helps companies like Uber and DoorDash connect customers to businesses, but what else does it do? Here is a list of solutions Twilio can offer:\n\nMessaging: You can send and receive SMS, MMS, and OTT messages globally (to and from over 180 countries) and in a scalable manner. For example, Twilio can be used to created automated replies to customers and route important requests to humans for additional interaction.\nCustomer engagement:Contact centers can leverage Twilio for customer engagement channels, and the tools can be quite complex. For example, Twilio offers AI-powered tools for customer self-service, automatic text notifications, callbacks, etc.\nMarketing:Campaigns can use Twilio to send specific, customizable messages with the ability to track data such as click-through rates.\nBusiness email services: Twilio can send and receive emails. Twilio SendGrid Email API allows businesses to create flexible, scalable, and engaging campaigns.\n\n#7The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) focuses on the ad-tech space, and it has a tremendous total addressable market (TAM) when you consider the possibilities in CTV. CTV means \"connected TV,\" which is essentially any television connected to the internet. ThinkRoku (NASDAQ:ROKU), YouTube, part ofAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL),Amazon Prime (NASDAQ:AMZN),Disney's Disney+ (NYSE:DIS), and others. Smart TVs are changing the internet, and buying The Trade Desk is the best way to play this space, in my opinion. The company allows its clients to buy advertisements or run global marketing campaigns in areas such as CTV, display ads, and even social media. These are massive secular growth trends, and The Trade Desk can help your portfolio capture some of this growth.\n#6.Zoom Video (NASDAQ:ZM) is the epitome of a work-from-home stock, but can it be a large part of the work-from-anywhere movement that is here to stay? The answer, in my opinion, is yes. Zoom is now a verb, and recently Charlie Munger told CNBC that he's \"in love with Zoom\" and thinks it's \"here to stay.\" I agree with him, and the below video shares more details as to why.\nIn case you missed the last article, I'll provide some background. If you aren't familiar with the terminology, SaaS is simply a component of cloud computing. SaaS refers to software hosted outside of your organization and offered as a subscription-based service. SaaS generally offers businesses lower total cost of ownership. The latest software updates and enhancements are generally done for the client, allowing businesses to have the latest and greatest without additional effort or overhead. Additionally, SaaS enables businesses to shift capital expenses to operating expenses, allowing them to stretch budgets from an accounting perspective. \nCloud computing refers to servers that are connected through the internet, as well as the software, data centers, and databases that create an online network. Leveraging \"the cloud\" allows users and businesses to consume and analyze data without having to manage databases or software on their own physical, on-premises servers and machines. \nDigital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, machine learning, centralized analytics, customer relationship management, enterprise resource planning (ERP), connected TV (CTV), streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and other secular growth trends fuel SaaS and cloud infrastructure. But what are the best stocks to buy in order to ride these waves and boost your portfolio? \n#5. Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS) offers customers a security stack as a cloud service, which offers lower cost and complexity than \"old-school\" traditional gateway methods. Zscaler's global infrastructure brings internet gateways closer to users all around the world, creating a faster and more streamlined experience. The company enables work-from-anywhere cloud security in a highly scalable fashion. \n#4. Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) provides monitoring and analytics tools that give IT teams insights from anywhere and at any time. Datadog, like Zscaler, is very scalable. In fact, most cloud-native providers are highly scalable, which is part of the reason they rank high on the list. Datadog brings information together from across an entire organization into a simple dashboard. Companies that leverage Datadog enjoy benefits such as improved user experience, faster resolutions to interruptions, and overall better business decisions. \nDatadog has continuously improved its product suite as well as its partnership network. In fact, Datadog recently announced a new partnership with Microsoft (NASDAQ:DDOG) Azure, which allows streamlined experiences for configuration, purchasing, and even managing Datadog inside the Azure portal. Additionally, on July 1 Datadog announced a partnership with Salesforce to provide real-time monitoring and threat detection across the Salesforce (NASDAQ:DDOG) platform.\nFrom a product perspective, here are the highlights:\n\nApplication performance monitoring (APM) provides visibility into application functionality and health. \nInfrastructure monitoring allows businesses to monitor IT infrastructure.\nLog management provides visualization and data for any performance problems.\nUser experience monitoring includes both synthetics and real user monitoring (RUM).\nNetwork performance monitoring allows insights and analysis into network traffic flow from both hybrid and cloud environments.\nIncident management and continuous profiler improves workflows. \nSecurity monitoring provides threat detection.\n\n#3. Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) offers what it calls a \"data warehouse-as-a-service\" (DaaS), a cloud-based data storage and analytics solution. Interestingly, Snowflake is not a SaaS company since its revenues are over 90% consumption based. Snowflake reduces cost and improves agility. Its data platform is unique in that it is not built on an existing big data platform. \nAs you may have heard around the time of the IPO, Snowflake is backed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A). Snowflake's clients include Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), and many others. Snowflake is all about big data, and it deserves a top spot on the list. \n#2. Cloudflare's (NYSE:NET) mission is to help \"build a better internet.\" Cloudflare is actually a network. In fact, it's one of the larger networks on the planet. Cloudflare enables a faster and more secure internet for anyone with an internet presence. Cloudflare has data centers across the globe, and it boasts an astonishing 25 million internet properties, a number that grows daily. To date, Cloudflare handles over 17 percent of the Fortune 1000 internet requests, and the company handles 25 million HTTP requests every second on average. Cloudflare is all about the future of the internet, and it belongs in my portfolio as a long-term investment. \n#1 Crowdstrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) is the leader in endpoint security. Crowdstrike's Falcon platform stops breaches through both prevention and response, a process known as endpoint detection and response (EDR). It uses agent-based sensors that can be installed on Mac, Linux, and Windows. Crowdstrike relies on a cloud-hosted SaaS platform that manages data and prevents, detects, and responds to threats. Both malware and non-malware attacks are covered via Crowdstrike's cloud-delivered technologies in a lightweight solution. \nCyberattacks continue to be a major threat, and the total addressable market for cybersecurity is enormous. Crowdstrike has been a monster since its IPO in 2019, growing into a $60 billion market cap company. But I think Crowdstrike is just getting started, and it stands tall as my top high-conviction cloud/SaaS stock for the next decade.\nIf you want deeper-dive analysis on these stocks, please watch the video below, where I cover these and many others in the cloud space. These growth stocks can boost your long-term investing portfolio, so please check out the below video and subscribe to make sure you stay on top of this sector.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159253797,"gmtCreate":1624971790919,"gmtModify":1703849090276,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159253797","repostId":"2146200677","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146200677","pubTimestamp":1624851120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146200677?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable: 4 Surefire Stocks to Buy When It Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146200677","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A crash or steep correction would be a blessing in disguise, because you'd get to buy these proven winners at a discount.","content":"<p>They're the three words that can ruin an investor's day: stock market crash.</p>\n<p>Although talking about a stock market crash might be considered taboo, the fact is: A crash <i>is</i> on its way. We might not be able to pinpoint when it'll happen, but history is pretty clear that crashes and corrections are inevitable parts of the investing cycle.</p>\n<h2>All signs point to a crash or steep correction in the not-so-distant future</h2>\n<p>As an example, we can look back more than six decades and see that no rebound from a bear-market bottom has ever been this robust or smooth. In the three years following each of the previous eight bear-market bottoms, there were either <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> or two double-digit percentage declines in the benchmark <b>S&amp;P 500</b> (SNPINDEX:^GSPC). In other words, rebounding from a bear market is a process that doesn't result in straight-line moves higher, which is what we've witnessed over the past 15 months.</p>\n<p>If you need more evidence, take a closer look at the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which examines inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years. As of Monday, June 21, its Shiller P/E of 37.5 is 123% higher than the 151-year average. Even more telling, the S&amp;P has subsequently shed at least 20% of its value in the previous four instances where the Shiller P/E has topped 30 and sustained it. In this instance, history is most definitely not on the market's side.</p>\n<p>The use of margin is equally concerning. Market analytics company Yardeni Research notes that margin debt in May 2021 climbed to a new high of almost $862 billion, and is up around 60% from the prior-year period. Over the past 25 years, there have been only three instances where margin debt increased by 60% on a year-over-year basis. In the previous two instances (the dot-com bubble and the Great Recession), the S&amp;P 500 went on to lose around half its value.</p>\n<p>All signs are suggesting that, sooner rather than later, the stock market is going to crash or correct steeply.</p>\n<h2>These surefire stocks can make you rich</h2>\n<p>Though this might be unnerving to some folks, it's also an incredible opportunity. That's because crashes and corrections are usually short-lived events. They also have a perfect track record of eventually being erased by bull market rallies. As long as you're buying high-quality companies and holding on to your investments for the long term, steep declines represent the perfect times to put your money to work in the stock market.</p>\n<p>When the next crash does inevitably arrive, the following four surefire stocks should make investors a lot richer.</p>\n<h2>Alphabet</h2>\n<p>The idea of buying a company that relies heavily on advertising during periods when the U.S. economy could be in recession might sound odd. But let me assure you, <b>Alphabet</b> (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG) is exactly the type of dominant company you'll want to add during periods of heightened volatility.</p>\n<p>Long-term investors buying Alphabet would benefit from two factors. First, recessions and crashes/corrections tend to be short-lived. By comparison, periods of economic expansion usually last multiple years, if not a decade. Alphabet simply bides its time during these short downtrends, then basks in double-digit growth and strong ad-pricing power for its Google internet search platform during long-winded expansions. According to GlobalStats, Google has controlled between 91% and 93% of worldwide internet-search share over the past two years.</p>\n<p>The second reason Alphabet is such a surefire stock to buy during a crash is its innovation. Content-streaming platform YouTube is now <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the three most-visited social sites in the world. Meanwhile, its cloud infrastructure services segment Google Cloud has been consistently growing at close to 50% on a year-over-year basis. Google Cloud will be especially helpful by mid-decade, with the higher margins from infrastructure services helping to catapult Alphabet's operating cash flow.</p>\n<h2>Innovative Industrial Properties</h2>\n<p>Another surefire opportunity can be found with cannabis-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) <b>Innovative Industrial Properties</b> (NYSE:IIPR). Innovative Industrial, or IIP for short, acquires facilities for growing and processing medical marijuana with the purpose of leasing these assets out for long periods of time.</p>\n<p>One of the more obvious benefits of this strategy is that it generates highly predictable cash flow. IIP owned 72 properties spanning 6.6 million square feet of rentable space in 18 states as of the beginning of June. According to the company, 100% of its properties are leased with a weighted-average lease of 16.8 years. It'll likely take less than half this time for the company to receive a complete payback on its $1.6 billion in invested capital. Plus, IIP passes along inflation-based rent hikes annually to its tenants, ensuring a very modest level of organic rental growth.</p>\n<p>What's more, Innovative Industrial is benefiting from federal gridlock on cannabis banking reform. Since marijuana is illegal at the federal level, pot companies have struggled to gain access to basic banking services. IIP resolves this issue with its sale-leaseback program. With this program, IIP acquires properties from multistate operators (MSO) for cash and immediately leases the property it buys back to the seller. This innovative program gives MSOs access to cash, while netting IIP long-term tenants.</p>\n<h2>UnitedHealth Group</h2>\n<p>Healthcare stocks are an incredibly smart place to put your money to work during a crash or steep correction. That's because the healthcare sector is defensive. Since we don't get to choose when we get sick or what ailment(s) we develop, there will always be demand for drugs, devices, and other healthcare services no matter how well or poorly the economy (or stock market) is performing. It's a big reason <b>UnitedHealth Group</b> (NYSE:UNH) is such a winner.</p>\n<p>Here's a little something you might not know: Only a handful of stocks have delivered a positive total return (including dividends paid) in each of the past 12 years since the Great Recession. UnitedHealth Group is one of those 12, and its health-benefits segment is a key reason. Providing health insurance often leads to predictable cash flow and strong premium-pricing power. Even with this pricing power somewhat limited by the Affordable Care Act, UnitedHealth is bringing in more than enough new members that it remains a very profitable segment.</p>\n<p>The other major growth driver for UnitedHealth Group is its healthcare services subsidiary Optum. It provides everything from pharmacy-benefit manager services to data analytics used by hospitals and health-centric organizations. Optum has actually been UnitedHealth's faster-growing operating segment, and it's the better bet to deliver superior long-term operating margins.</p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a></h2>\n<p>A fourth surefire stock you can comfortably buy if a stock market crash or steep correction strikes is <b>salesforce.com</b> (NYSE:CRM), which provides cloud-based customer-relationship management (CRM) software. It's used by consumer-facing businesses to enter customer information, handle product/service issues, manage online marketing campaigns, and even offer predictive sales analysis in real time.</p>\n<p>Through the midpoint of the decade, global CRM revenue is projected to rise annually by a low double-digit percentage. Salesforce, on the other hand, will be growing even faster. CEO Marc Benioff foresees his company increasing its full-year sales from $21.3 billion in its most recent fiscal year to more than $50 billion in five years (fiscal 2026). That's certainly easy to do when his company controls nearly 20% of worldwide CRM revenue as of the first half of 2020, per IDC. That's more than its four closest competitors, <i>combined</i>!</p>\n<p>Salesforce also has a knack for integrating acquisitions and using buyouts as a platform to expand its offerings or cross-sell its solutions. It has a $27.7 billion pending cash-and-stock deal in place to acquire <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WORK\">Slack Technologies</a></b>. Though this deal does open a new revenue channel for Salesforce, it's really all about the new exposure to small and medium-size businesses, as well as the ability to use Slack's platform to cross-sell its CRM solutions.</p>\n<p>In short, Salesforce isn't going to be fazed by a short-term crash or correction, which makes it a smart buy for investors.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable: 4 Surefire Stocks to Buy When It Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable: 4 Surefire Stocks to Buy When It Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/26/stock-market-crash-is-inevitable-4-surefire-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>They're the three words that can ruin an investor's day: stock market crash.\nAlthough talking about a stock market crash might be considered taboo, the fact is: A crash is on its way. We might not be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/26/stock-market-crash-is-inevitable-4-surefire-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","CRM":"赛富时","IIPR":"Innovative Industrial Properties Inc","UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/26/stock-market-crash-is-inevitable-4-surefire-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146200677","content_text":"They're the three words that can ruin an investor's day: stock market crash.\nAlthough talking about a stock market crash might be considered taboo, the fact is: A crash is on its way. We might not be able to pinpoint when it'll happen, but history is pretty clear that crashes and corrections are inevitable parts of the investing cycle.\nAll signs point to a crash or steep correction in the not-so-distant future\nAs an example, we can look back more than six decades and see that no rebound from a bear-market bottom has ever been this robust or smooth. In the three years following each of the previous eight bear-market bottoms, there were either one or two double-digit percentage declines in the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC). In other words, rebounding from a bear market is a process that doesn't result in straight-line moves higher, which is what we've witnessed over the past 15 months.\nIf you need more evidence, take a closer look at the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which examines inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years. As of Monday, June 21, its Shiller P/E of 37.5 is 123% higher than the 151-year average. Even more telling, the S&P has subsequently shed at least 20% of its value in the previous four instances where the Shiller P/E has topped 30 and sustained it. In this instance, history is most definitely not on the market's side.\nThe use of margin is equally concerning. Market analytics company Yardeni Research notes that margin debt in May 2021 climbed to a new high of almost $862 billion, and is up around 60% from the prior-year period. Over the past 25 years, there have been only three instances where margin debt increased by 60% on a year-over-year basis. In the previous two instances (the dot-com bubble and the Great Recession), the S&P 500 went on to lose around half its value.\nAll signs are suggesting that, sooner rather than later, the stock market is going to crash or correct steeply.\nThese surefire stocks can make you rich\nThough this might be unnerving to some folks, it's also an incredible opportunity. That's because crashes and corrections are usually short-lived events. They also have a perfect track record of eventually being erased by bull market rallies. As long as you're buying high-quality companies and holding on to your investments for the long term, steep declines represent the perfect times to put your money to work in the stock market.\nWhen the next crash does inevitably arrive, the following four surefire stocks should make investors a lot richer.\nAlphabet\nThe idea of buying a company that relies heavily on advertising during periods when the U.S. economy could be in recession might sound odd. But let me assure you, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG) is exactly the type of dominant company you'll want to add during periods of heightened volatility.\nLong-term investors buying Alphabet would benefit from two factors. First, recessions and crashes/corrections tend to be short-lived. By comparison, periods of economic expansion usually last multiple years, if not a decade. Alphabet simply bides its time during these short downtrends, then basks in double-digit growth and strong ad-pricing power for its Google internet search platform during long-winded expansions. According to GlobalStats, Google has controlled between 91% and 93% of worldwide internet-search share over the past two years.\nThe second reason Alphabet is such a surefire stock to buy during a crash is its innovation. Content-streaming platform YouTube is now one of the three most-visited social sites in the world. Meanwhile, its cloud infrastructure services segment Google Cloud has been consistently growing at close to 50% on a year-over-year basis. Google Cloud will be especially helpful by mid-decade, with the higher margins from infrastructure services helping to catapult Alphabet's operating cash flow.\nInnovative Industrial Properties\nAnother surefire opportunity can be found with cannabis-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE:IIPR). Innovative Industrial, or IIP for short, acquires facilities for growing and processing medical marijuana with the purpose of leasing these assets out for long periods of time.\nOne of the more obvious benefits of this strategy is that it generates highly predictable cash flow. IIP owned 72 properties spanning 6.6 million square feet of rentable space in 18 states as of the beginning of June. According to the company, 100% of its properties are leased with a weighted-average lease of 16.8 years. It'll likely take less than half this time for the company to receive a complete payback on its $1.6 billion in invested capital. Plus, IIP passes along inflation-based rent hikes annually to its tenants, ensuring a very modest level of organic rental growth.\nWhat's more, Innovative Industrial is benefiting from federal gridlock on cannabis banking reform. Since marijuana is illegal at the federal level, pot companies have struggled to gain access to basic banking services. IIP resolves this issue with its sale-leaseback program. With this program, IIP acquires properties from multistate operators (MSO) for cash and immediately leases the property it buys back to the seller. This innovative program gives MSOs access to cash, while netting IIP long-term tenants.\nUnitedHealth Group\nHealthcare stocks are an incredibly smart place to put your money to work during a crash or steep correction. That's because the healthcare sector is defensive. Since we don't get to choose when we get sick or what ailment(s) we develop, there will always be demand for drugs, devices, and other healthcare services no matter how well or poorly the economy (or stock market) is performing. It's a big reason UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) is such a winner.\nHere's a little something you might not know: Only a handful of stocks have delivered a positive total return (including dividends paid) in each of the past 12 years since the Great Recession. UnitedHealth Group is one of those 12, and its health-benefits segment is a key reason. Providing health insurance often leads to predictable cash flow and strong premium-pricing power. Even with this pricing power somewhat limited by the Affordable Care Act, UnitedHealth is bringing in more than enough new members that it remains a very profitable segment.\nThe other major growth driver for UnitedHealth Group is its healthcare services subsidiary Optum. It provides everything from pharmacy-benefit manager services to data analytics used by hospitals and health-centric organizations. Optum has actually been UnitedHealth's faster-growing operating segment, and it's the better bet to deliver superior long-term operating margins.\nSalesforce\nA fourth surefire stock you can comfortably buy if a stock market crash or steep correction strikes is salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM), which provides cloud-based customer-relationship management (CRM) software. It's used by consumer-facing businesses to enter customer information, handle product/service issues, manage online marketing campaigns, and even offer predictive sales analysis in real time.\nThrough the midpoint of the decade, global CRM revenue is projected to rise annually by a low double-digit percentage. Salesforce, on the other hand, will be growing even faster. CEO Marc Benioff foresees his company increasing its full-year sales from $21.3 billion in its most recent fiscal year to more than $50 billion in five years (fiscal 2026). That's certainly easy to do when his company controls nearly 20% of worldwide CRM revenue as of the first half of 2020, per IDC. That's more than its four closest competitors, combined!\nSalesforce also has a knack for integrating acquisitions and using buyouts as a platform to expand its offerings or cross-sell its solutions. It has a $27.7 billion pending cash-and-stock deal in place to acquire Slack Technologies. Though this deal does open a new revenue channel for Salesforce, it's really all about the new exposure to small and medium-size businesses, as well as the ability to use Slack's platform to cross-sell its CRM solutions.\nIn short, Salesforce isn't going to be fazed by a short-term crash or correction, which makes it a smart buy for investors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":148277824,"gmtCreate":1625983688168,"gmtModify":1703751644099,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148277824","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112201050?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p>\n<p>When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p>\n<p>It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p>\n<p>The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p>\n<p>That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p>\n<p>While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p>\n<p>Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p>\n<p>A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p>\n<p>“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p>\n<p>The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p>\n<p>Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p>\n<p>The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p>\n<p>Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p>\n<p>These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p>\n<p>To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p>\n<p>But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p>\n<p>“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p>\n<p>“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p>\n<p>Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p>\n<p>Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p>\n<p>But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p>\n<p>“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p>\n<p>The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p>\n<p>— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p>\n<p>It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p>\n<p>Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p>\n<p>With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p>\n<p>“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p>\n<p>Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p>\n<p>AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p>\n<p>Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p>\n<p>Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p>\n<p>In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p>\n<p>There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p>\n<p>For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p>\n<p>For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p>\n<p>New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p>\n<p>“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p>\n<p>Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p>\n<p>Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p>\n<p>The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p>\n<p>The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p>\n<p>Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p>\n<p>As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p>\n<p>To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p>\n<p>Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p>\n<p>Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p>\n<p>“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p>\n<p>“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p>\n<p>The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p>\n<p>Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p>\n<p>Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p>\n<p>In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p>\n<p>Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p>\n<p>Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-11 09:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BBBY":"3B家居","BB":"黑莓","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","MRIN":"Marin Software Inc.","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","SCHW":"嘉信理财"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":326,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895460676,"gmtCreate":1628766306995,"gmtModify":1676529847111,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/895460676","repostId":"2158936289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158936289","pubTimestamp":1628734800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2158936289?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-12 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Unstoppable Investments Everyone Needs in Their Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158936289","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments can help boost your savings and build long-term wealth.","content":"<p>Building a strong investment portfolio can be challenging, because there are seemingly limitless options to choose from. If you're new to the stock market, all of those choices can be overwhelming.</p>\n<p>The good news is that it's easier than you may think to create a solid core portfolio. These three types of investments are a fantastic choice regardless of where you are on your investing journey, and they can help send your savings to the moon.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F638446%2Fperson-holding-hundred-dollar-bills-copy-2.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"415\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<h2>1. S&amp;P 500 ETFs</h2>\n<p>An <b>S&amp;P 500</b> ETF is a group of stocks that is designed to mirror the performance of the S&amp;P 500 index itself. That means each of these funds contains around 500 stocks from the largest U.S.-based companies.</p>\n<p>This type of investment is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the more stable and lower-risk options. While the S&amp;P 500 does experience short-term volatility, it's earned an average rate of return of around 10% per year since its inception. In other words, the highs and lows each year average out to around 10% annually over time.</p>\n<p>These funds are also very likely to recover from market crashes. The S&amp;P 500 has endured countless corrections and crashes over the years, but it's survived each and every one so far. Although there are never any guarantees in investing, there's a very good chance it will recover from any future crashes as well.</p>\n<p><b>Where to get started:</b> There are many S&amp;P 500 ETFs to choose from, and they're all similar. Some of the best options include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VOO\">Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IVV\">iShares Core S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">S&amp;P500 ETF</a> </b></li>\n</ul>\n<h2>2. Growth ETFs</h2>\n<p>A growth ETF is a fund that contains stocks with higher-than-average growth rates. The advantage of this type of investment is that you may earn higher returns than you would with a broad-market fund like an S&amp;P 500 ETF.</p>\n<p>The downside, though, is that growth ETFs can be on the riskier side. High-growth stocks can be more volatile than their more established counterparts, so you may see more ups and downs with this type of fund than you would with an S&amp;P 500 ETF.</p>\n<p>That said, many growth ETFs include companies that have experienced phenomenal growth but are also strong businesses, such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>. These organizations are still subject to volatility in the short term, but it's very likely they'll experience long-term growth.</p>\n<p><b>Where to get started:</b> It's important to choose carefully when investing in a growth ETF, because not all funds are created equal. Some funds only contain smaller organizations from niche industries, for example, which poses more risk than a fund that includes large corporations from a variety of industries. A few of the stronger growth ETFs include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUG\">Vanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IWO\">iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QQQ\">NASDAQ-100 Index ETF</a> </b></li>\n</ul>\n<h2>3. Dividend ETFs</h2>\n<p>A dividend ETF is a collection of stocks that will actually pay you to own them. Some companies pay a portion of their profits back to shareholders each quarter or year, which is called a dividend. By investing in a dividend ETF, you'll earn quarterly or annual dividend payments in addition to the fund's normal earnings.</p>\n<p>By investing consistently over time, you could build a source of passive income with dividend ETFs. Most funds also offer the opportunity to reinvest your dividends and buy more shares of that particular ETF. By reinvesting, you can gradually buy more shares without having to pay more money out of pocket. And the more shares you own, the more you'll receive in dividends.</p>\n<p><b>Where to get started:</b> As with growth ETFs, all dividend ETFs are different and offer varying levels of risk and reward. Some of the most popular funds include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIG\">Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HDV\">iShares Core High Dividend ETF</a> </b></li>\n <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</a> </b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Choosing the right investments isn't as challenging as it may seem. By building a portfolio filled with solid funds, you'll be on your way to generating long-term wealth.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Unstoppable Investments Everyone Needs in Their Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Unstoppable Investments Everyone Needs in Their Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/11/3-unstoppable-investments-everyone-needs-in-their/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Building a strong investment portfolio can be challenging, because there are seemingly limitless options to choose from. If you're new to the stock market, all of those choices can be overwhelming.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/11/3-unstoppable-investments-everyone-needs-in-their/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","IWO":"罗素2000成长股指数ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","HDV":"iShares High Dividend Equity Fun","VIG":"股利增长指数ETF-Vanguard","VUG":"成长股指数ETF-Vanguard MSCI","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SCHD":"Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/11/3-unstoppable-investments-everyone-needs-in-their/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158936289","content_text":"Building a strong investment portfolio can be challenging, because there are seemingly limitless options to choose from. If you're new to the stock market, all of those choices can be overwhelming.\nThe good news is that it's easier than you may think to create a solid core portfolio. These three types of investments are a fantastic choice regardless of where you are on your investing journey, and they can help send your savings to the moon.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. S&P 500 ETFs\nAn S&P 500 ETF is a group of stocks that is designed to mirror the performance of the S&P 500 index itself. That means each of these funds contains around 500 stocks from the largest U.S.-based companies.\nThis type of investment is one of the more stable and lower-risk options. While the S&P 500 does experience short-term volatility, it's earned an average rate of return of around 10% per year since its inception. In other words, the highs and lows each year average out to around 10% annually over time.\nThese funds are also very likely to recover from market crashes. The S&P 500 has endured countless corrections and crashes over the years, but it's survived each and every one so far. Although there are never any guarantees in investing, there's a very good chance it will recover from any future crashes as well.\nWhere to get started: There are many S&P 500 ETFs to choose from, and they're all similar. Some of the best options include:\n\nVanguard S&P 500 ETF \niShares Core S&P 500 ETF \nS&P500 ETF \n\n2. Growth ETFs\nA growth ETF is a fund that contains stocks with higher-than-average growth rates. The advantage of this type of investment is that you may earn higher returns than you would with a broad-market fund like an S&P 500 ETF.\nThe downside, though, is that growth ETFs can be on the riskier side. High-growth stocks can be more volatile than their more established counterparts, so you may see more ups and downs with this type of fund than you would with an S&P 500 ETF.\nThat said, many growth ETFs include companies that have experienced phenomenal growth but are also strong businesses, such as Amazon.com, Apple, and Microsoft. These organizations are still subject to volatility in the short term, but it's very likely they'll experience long-term growth.\nWhere to get started: It's important to choose carefully when investing in a growth ETF, because not all funds are created equal. Some funds only contain smaller organizations from niche industries, for example, which poses more risk than a fund that includes large corporations from a variety of industries. A few of the stronger growth ETFs include:\n\nVanguard Growth Index Fund ETF Shares \niShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF \nNASDAQ-100 Index ETF \n\n3. Dividend ETFs\nA dividend ETF is a collection of stocks that will actually pay you to own them. Some companies pay a portion of their profits back to shareholders each quarter or year, which is called a dividend. By investing in a dividend ETF, you'll earn quarterly or annual dividend payments in addition to the fund's normal earnings.\nBy investing consistently over time, you could build a source of passive income with dividend ETFs. Most funds also offer the opportunity to reinvest your dividends and buy more shares of that particular ETF. By reinvesting, you can gradually buy more shares without having to pay more money out of pocket. And the more shares you own, the more you'll receive in dividends.\nWhere to get started: As with growth ETFs, all dividend ETFs are different and offer varying levels of risk and reward. Some of the most popular funds include:\n\nVanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETF Shares \niShares Core High Dividend ETF \nSchwab US Dividend Equity ETF \n\nChoosing the right investments isn't as challenging as it may seem. By building a portfolio filled with solid funds, you'll be on your way to generating long-term wealth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148996681,"gmtCreate":1625910903843,"gmtModify":1703750827542,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148996681","repostId":"2150370120","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150370120","pubTimestamp":1625879410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150370120?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top 10 Cloud Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150370120","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"How can you capitalize on secular growth trends like digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, analytics, video streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and more? Last time, I covered stocks six through 10 on the list, and today I cover my top five!","content":"<p>Today, I cover my top high-conviction cloud stocks to buy on the next dip. These are high-growth software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cloud stocks that I currently hold in my $1.6 million long-term investing portfolio.</p>\n<p>If you aren't familiar with the terminology, SaaS is simply a component of cloud computing. SaaS refers to software hosted outside of your organization and offered as a subscription-based service. Overall, SaaS generally offers businesses lower total cost of ownership. The latest software updates and enhancements are generally done for you as the client, allowing businesses to have the latest and greatest without additional effort or overhead. Additionally, SaaS enables businesses to shift capital expenses to operating expenses, allowing them to stretch budgets from an accounting perspective.</p>\n<p>Cloud computing refers to servers that are connected through the internet, as well as the software, data centers, and databases that create an online network. Leveraging \"the cloud\" allows users and businesses to consume and analyze data without having to manage databases or software on their own physical, on-premises servers and machines.</p>\n<p>Digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, machine learning, centralized analytics, customer relationship management, enterprise resource planning (ERP), connected TV (CTV), streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and other secular growth trends fuel SaaS and cloud infrastructure. But what are the best stocks to buy in order to ride these waves and boost your portfolio?</p>\n<p>I'll provide 10 total stocks over two articles and videos. Today, I will cover stocks 1 through 10.</p>\n<p>#10.<b>salesforce.com</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:CRM) is the leader in customer relationship management (CRM). <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a> is a SaaS provider that enables organizations to integrate marketing, sales, service, e-commerce, and IT into a single customer view. Salesforce is acquiring<b>Slack</b> (NYSE:WORK), which has caused volatility in the stock. The leadership team has proven to shareholders many times that they can successfully acquire businesses and add value. I firmly believe that this acquisition will add tremendous value to Salesforce customers. The company plans to build Slack into its Service Cloud products, which will increase employee productivity from anywhere.</p>\n<p>#9.<b>DocuSign</b>(NASDAQ:DOCU) offers more than most people realize. Its business consists of four primary pillars -- manage, prepare, sign, and act -- which collectively are called the DocuSign Agreement Cloud. The company continues to expand offerings, and its recent earnings results prove it. For Q1 FY22, revenues grew 58% year over year to $469 million. Its billings also grew 54% year over year to $527 million with a 125% net dollar retention rate. The below video goes into more detail, breaking down the pillars and solutions.</p>\n<p>#8.<b>Twilio</b> (NYSE:TWLO) is often misunderstood. Sure, it helps companies like Uber and DoorDash connect customers to businesses, but what else does it do? Here is a list of solutions Twilio can offer:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Messaging:</b> You can send and receive SMS, MMS, and OTT messages globally (to and from over 180 countries) and in a scalable manner. For example, Twilio can be used to created automated replies to customers and route important requests to humans for additional interaction.</li>\n <li><b>Customer engagement:</b>Contact centers can leverage Twilio for customer engagement channels, and the tools can be quite complex. For example, Twilio offers AI-powered tools for customer self-service, automatic text notifications, callbacks, etc.</li>\n <li><b>Marketing:</b>Campaigns can use Twilio to send specific, customizable messages with the ability to track data such as click-through rates.</li>\n <li><b>Business email services:</b> Twilio can send and receive emails. Twilio SendGrid Email API allows businesses to create flexible, scalable, and engaging campaigns.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>#7<b>The Trade Desk</b> (NASDAQ:TTD) focuses on the ad-tech space, and it has a tremendous total addressable market (TAM) when you consider the possibilities in CTV. CTV means \"connected TV,\" which is essentially any television connected to the internet. Think<b>Roku</b> (NASDAQ:ROKU), YouTube, part of<b>Alphabet</b> (NASDAQ:GOOGL),<b>Amazon</b> Prime (NASDAQ:AMZN),<b>Disney</b>'s Disney+&nbsp;(NYSE:DIS), and others. Smart TVs are changing the internet, and buying The Trade Desk is the best way to play this space, in my opinion. The company allows its clients to buy advertisements or run global marketing campaigns in areas such as CTV, display ads, and even social media. These are massive secular growth trends, and The Trade Desk can help your portfolio capture some of this growth.</p>\n<p>#6.<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</b> (NASDAQ:ZM) is the epitome of a work-from-home stock, but can it be a large part of the work-from-anywhere movement that is here to stay? The answer, in my opinion, is yes. Zoom is now a verb, and recently Charlie Munger told CNBC that he's \"in love with Zoom\" and thinks it's \"here to stay.\" I agree with him, and the below video shares more details as to why.</p>\n<p>In case you missed the last article, I'll provide some background. If you aren't familiar with the terminology, SaaS is simply a component of cloud computing. SaaS refers to software hosted outside of your organization and offered as a subscription-based service. SaaS generally offers businesses lower total cost of ownership. The latest software updates and enhancements are generally done for the client, allowing businesses to have the latest and greatest without additional effort or overhead. Additionally, SaaS enables businesses to shift capital expenses to operating expenses, allowing them to stretch budgets from an accounting perspective.&nbsp;</p>\n<p><i>Cloud computing</i> refers to servers that are connected through the internet, as well as the software, data centers, and databases that create an online network. Leveraging \"the cloud\" allows users and businesses to consume and analyze data without having to manage databases or software on their own physical, on-premises servers and machines.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Digital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, machine learning, centralized analytics, customer relationship management, enterprise resource planning (ERP), connected TV (CTV), streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and other secular growth trends fuel SaaS and cloud infrastructure. But what are the best stocks to buy in order to ride these waves and boost your portfolio?&nbsp;</p>\n<p>#5. <b>Zscaler</b> (NASDAQ:ZS) offers customers a security stack as a cloud service, which offers lower cost and complexity than \"old-school\" traditional gateway methods. Zscaler's global infrastructure brings internet gateways closer to users all around the world, creating a faster and more streamlined experience. The company enables work-from-anywhere cloud security in a highly scalable fashion.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>#4. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a></b> (NASDAQ:DDOG) provides monitoring and analytics tools that give IT teams insights from anywhere and at any time. Datadog, like Zscaler, is very scalable. In fact, most cloud-native providers are highly scalable, which is part of the reason they rank high on the list. Datadog brings information together from across an entire organization into a simple dashboard. Companies that leverage Datadog enjoy benefits such as improved user experience, faster resolutions to interruptions, and overall better business decisions.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Datadog has continuously improved its product suite as well as its partnership network. In fact, Datadog recently announced a new partnership with <b>Microsoft</b> (NASDAQ:DDOG) Azure, which allows streamlined experiences for configuration, purchasing, and even managing Datadog inside the Azure portal. Additionally, on July 1 Datadog announced a partnership with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a> to provide real-time monitoring and threat detection across the <b>Salesforce</b> (NASDAQ:DDOG)&nbsp;platform.</p>\n<p>From a product perspective, here are the highlights:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Application performance monitoring (APM) </b>provides visibility into application functionality and health.&nbsp;</li>\n <li><b>Infrastructure monitoring </b>allows businesses to monitor IT infrastructure.</li>\n <li><b>Log management </b>provides visualization and data for any performance problems.</li>\n <li><b>User experience monitoring </b>includes both synthetics and real user monitoring (RUM).</li>\n <li><b>Network performance monitoring </b>allows insights and analysis into network traffic flow from both hybrid and cloud environments.</li>\n <li><b>Incident management and continuous profiler </b>improves workflows.&nbsp;</li>\n <li><b>Security monitoring </b>provides threat detection.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>#3. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a></b> (NYSE:SNOW) offers what it calls a \"data warehouse-as-a-service\" (DaaS), a cloud-based data storage and analytics solution. Interestingly, Snowflake is not a SaaS company since its revenues are over 90% consumption based. Snowflake reduces cost and improves agility. Its data platform is unique in that it is not built on an existing big data platform.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>As you may have heard around the time of the IPO, Snowflake is backed by Warren Buffett's <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A). Snowflake's clients include <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL), <b>Nike</b> (NYSE:NKE), <b>Mastercard</b> (NYSE:MA), and many others. Snowflake is all about big data, and it deserves a top spot on the list.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>#2. <b>Cloudflare</b>'s (NYSE:NET) mission is to help \"build a better internet.\" Cloudflare is actually a network. In fact, it's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the larger networks on the planet. Cloudflare enables a faster and more secure internet for anyone with an internet presence. Cloudflare has data centers across the globe, and it boasts an astonishing 25 million internet properties, a number that grows daily. To date, Cloudflare handles over 17 percent of the Fortune 1000 internet requests, and the company handles 25 million HTTP requests every second on average. Cloudflare is all about the future of the internet, and it belongs in my portfolio as a long-term investment.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>#1 <b>Crowdstrike</b> (NASDAQ:CRWD) is the leader in endpoint security. Crowdstrike's Falcon platform stops breaches through both prevention and response, a process known as endpoint detection and response (EDR). It uses agent-based sensors that can be installed on Mac, Linux, and Windows. Crowdstrike relies on a cloud-hosted SaaS platform that manages data and prevents, detects, and responds to threats. Both malware and non-malware attacks are covered via Crowdstrike's cloud-delivered technologies in a lightweight solution.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Cyberattacks continue to be a major threat, and the total addressable market for cybersecurity is enormous. Crowdstrike has been a monster since its IPO in 2019, growing into a $60 billion market cap company. But I think Crowdstrike is just getting started, and it stands tall as my top high-conviction cloud/SaaS stock for the next decade.</p>\n<p>If you want deeper-dive analysis on these stocks, please watch the video below, where I cover these and many others in the cloud space. These growth stocks can boost your long-term investing portfolio, so please check out the below video and subscribe to make sure you stay on top of this sector.&nbsp;</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top 10 Cloud Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop 10 Cloud Stocks to Buy on the Next Dip\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/top-10-cloud-stocks-to-buy-on-the-next-dip-part-ii/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Today, I cover my top high-conviction cloud stocks to buy on the next dip. These are high-growth software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cloud stocks that I currently hold in my $1.6 million long-term ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/top-10-cloud-stocks-to-buy-on-the-next-dip-part-ii/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DDOG":"Datadog","ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","DOCU":"Docusign","TWLO":"Twilio Inc","CRM":"赛富时","SNOW":"Snowflake","ZM":"Zoom","TTD":"Trade Desk Inc.","NET":"Cloudflare, Inc.","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/09/top-10-cloud-stocks-to-buy-on-the-next-dip-part-ii/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150370120","content_text":"Today, I cover my top high-conviction cloud stocks to buy on the next dip. These are high-growth software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cloud stocks that I currently hold in my $1.6 million long-term investing portfolio.\nIf you aren't familiar with the terminology, SaaS is simply a component of cloud computing. SaaS refers to software hosted outside of your organization and offered as a subscription-based service. Overall, SaaS generally offers businesses lower total cost of ownership. The latest software updates and enhancements are generally done for you as the client, allowing businesses to have the latest and greatest without additional effort or overhead. Additionally, SaaS enables businesses to shift capital expenses to operating expenses, allowing them to stretch budgets from an accounting perspective.\nCloud computing refers to servers that are connected through the internet, as well as the software, data centers, and databases that create an online network. Leveraging \"the cloud\" allows users and businesses to consume and analyze data without having to manage databases or software on their own physical, on-premises servers and machines.\nDigital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, machine learning, centralized analytics, customer relationship management, enterprise resource planning (ERP), connected TV (CTV), streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and other secular growth trends fuel SaaS and cloud infrastructure. But what are the best stocks to buy in order to ride these waves and boost your portfolio?\nI'll provide 10 total stocks over two articles and videos. Today, I will cover stocks 1 through 10.\n#10.salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM) is the leader in customer relationship management (CRM). Salesforce is a SaaS provider that enables organizations to integrate marketing, sales, service, e-commerce, and IT into a single customer view. Salesforce is acquiringSlack (NYSE:WORK), which has caused volatility in the stock. The leadership team has proven to shareholders many times that they can successfully acquire businesses and add value. I firmly believe that this acquisition will add tremendous value to Salesforce customers. The company plans to build Slack into its Service Cloud products, which will increase employee productivity from anywhere.\n#9.DocuSign(NASDAQ:DOCU) offers more than most people realize. Its business consists of four primary pillars -- manage, prepare, sign, and act -- which collectively are called the DocuSign Agreement Cloud. The company continues to expand offerings, and its recent earnings results prove it. For Q1 FY22, revenues grew 58% year over year to $469 million. Its billings also grew 54% year over year to $527 million with a 125% net dollar retention rate. The below video goes into more detail, breaking down the pillars and solutions.\n#8.Twilio (NYSE:TWLO) is often misunderstood. Sure, it helps companies like Uber and DoorDash connect customers to businesses, but what else does it do? Here is a list of solutions Twilio can offer:\n\nMessaging: You can send and receive SMS, MMS, and OTT messages globally (to and from over 180 countries) and in a scalable manner. For example, Twilio can be used to created automated replies to customers and route important requests to humans for additional interaction.\nCustomer engagement:Contact centers can leverage Twilio for customer engagement channels, and the tools can be quite complex. For example, Twilio offers AI-powered tools for customer self-service, automatic text notifications, callbacks, etc.\nMarketing:Campaigns can use Twilio to send specific, customizable messages with the ability to track data such as click-through rates.\nBusiness email services: Twilio can send and receive emails. Twilio SendGrid Email API allows businesses to create flexible, scalable, and engaging campaigns.\n\n#7The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) focuses on the ad-tech space, and it has a tremendous total addressable market (TAM) when you consider the possibilities in CTV. CTV means \"connected TV,\" which is essentially any television connected to the internet. ThinkRoku (NASDAQ:ROKU), YouTube, part ofAlphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL),Amazon Prime (NASDAQ:AMZN),Disney's Disney+ (NYSE:DIS), and others. Smart TVs are changing the internet, and buying The Trade Desk is the best way to play this space, in my opinion. The company allows its clients to buy advertisements or run global marketing campaigns in areas such as CTV, display ads, and even social media. These are massive secular growth trends, and The Trade Desk can help your portfolio capture some of this growth.\n#6.Zoom Video (NASDAQ:ZM) is the epitome of a work-from-home stock, but can it be a large part of the work-from-anywhere movement that is here to stay? The answer, in my opinion, is yes. Zoom is now a verb, and recently Charlie Munger told CNBC that he's \"in love with Zoom\" and thinks it's \"here to stay.\" I agree with him, and the below video shares more details as to why.\nIn case you missed the last article, I'll provide some background. If you aren't familiar with the terminology, SaaS is simply a component of cloud computing. SaaS refers to software hosted outside of your organization and offered as a subscription-based service. SaaS generally offers businesses lower total cost of ownership. The latest software updates and enhancements are generally done for the client, allowing businesses to have the latest and greatest without additional effort or overhead. Additionally, SaaS enables businesses to shift capital expenses to operating expenses, allowing them to stretch budgets from an accounting perspective. \nCloud computing refers to servers that are connected through the internet, as well as the software, data centers, and databases that create an online network. Leveraging \"the cloud\" allows users and businesses to consume and analyze data without having to manage databases or software on their own physical, on-premises servers and machines. \nDigital transformation, artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, machine learning, centralized analytics, customer relationship management, enterprise resource planning (ERP), connected TV (CTV), streaming, work from anywhere, the gig economy, and other secular growth trends fuel SaaS and cloud infrastructure. But what are the best stocks to buy in order to ride these waves and boost your portfolio? \n#5. Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS) offers customers a security stack as a cloud service, which offers lower cost and complexity than \"old-school\" traditional gateway methods. Zscaler's global infrastructure brings internet gateways closer to users all around the world, creating a faster and more streamlined experience. The company enables work-from-anywhere cloud security in a highly scalable fashion. \n#4. Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) provides monitoring and analytics tools that give IT teams insights from anywhere and at any time. Datadog, like Zscaler, is very scalable. In fact, most cloud-native providers are highly scalable, which is part of the reason they rank high on the list. Datadog brings information together from across an entire organization into a simple dashboard. Companies that leverage Datadog enjoy benefits such as improved user experience, faster resolutions to interruptions, and overall better business decisions. \nDatadog has continuously improved its product suite as well as its partnership network. In fact, Datadog recently announced a new partnership with Microsoft (NASDAQ:DDOG) Azure, which allows streamlined experiences for configuration, purchasing, and even managing Datadog inside the Azure portal. Additionally, on July 1 Datadog announced a partnership with Salesforce to provide real-time monitoring and threat detection across the Salesforce (NASDAQ:DDOG) platform.\nFrom a product perspective, here are the highlights:\n\nApplication performance monitoring (APM) provides visibility into application functionality and health. \nInfrastructure monitoring allows businesses to monitor IT infrastructure.\nLog management provides visualization and data for any performance problems.\nUser experience monitoring includes both synthetics and real user monitoring (RUM).\nNetwork performance monitoring allows insights and analysis into network traffic flow from both hybrid and cloud environments.\nIncident management and continuous profiler improves workflows. \nSecurity monitoring provides threat detection.\n\n#3. Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW) offers what it calls a \"data warehouse-as-a-service\" (DaaS), a cloud-based data storage and analytics solution. Interestingly, Snowflake is not a SaaS company since its revenues are over 90% consumption based. Snowflake reduces cost and improves agility. Its data platform is unique in that it is not built on an existing big data platform. \nAs you may have heard around the time of the IPO, Snowflake is backed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A). Snowflake's clients include Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Nike (NYSE:NKE), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), and many others. Snowflake is all about big data, and it deserves a top spot on the list. \n#2. Cloudflare's (NYSE:NET) mission is to help \"build a better internet.\" Cloudflare is actually a network. In fact, it's one of the larger networks on the planet. Cloudflare enables a faster and more secure internet for anyone with an internet presence. Cloudflare has data centers across the globe, and it boasts an astonishing 25 million internet properties, a number that grows daily. To date, Cloudflare handles over 17 percent of the Fortune 1000 internet requests, and the company handles 25 million HTTP requests every second on average. Cloudflare is all about the future of the internet, and it belongs in my portfolio as a long-term investment. \n#1 Crowdstrike (NASDAQ:CRWD) is the leader in endpoint security. Crowdstrike's Falcon platform stops breaches through both prevention and response, a process known as endpoint detection and response (EDR). It uses agent-based sensors that can be installed on Mac, Linux, and Windows. Crowdstrike relies on a cloud-hosted SaaS platform that manages data and prevents, detects, and responds to threats. Both malware and non-malware attacks are covered via Crowdstrike's cloud-delivered technologies in a lightweight solution. \nCyberattacks continue to be a major threat, and the total addressable market for cybersecurity is enormous. Crowdstrike has been a monster since its IPO in 2019, growing into a $60 billion market cap company. But I think Crowdstrike is just getting started, and it stands tall as my top high-conviction cloud/SaaS stock for the next decade.\nIf you want deeper-dive analysis on these stocks, please watch the video below, where I cover these and many others in the cloud space. These growth stocks can boost your long-term investing portfolio, so please check out the below video and subscribe to make sure you stay on top of this sector.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148992413,"gmtCreate":1625911057532,"gmtModify":1703750829663,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great opinion piece","listText":"Great opinion piece","text":"Great opinion piece","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148992413","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185154176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p>\n<p>It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p>\n<p>Here’s why.</p>\n<p>We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p>\n<p><b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p>\n<p>Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p>\n<p>Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p>\n<p>Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p>\n<p>Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p>\n<p>You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p>\n<p>Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p>\n<p><b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p>\n<p>Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p>\n<p>“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p>\n<p>Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p>\n<p>For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p>\n<p>Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p>\n<p><b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p>\n<p>Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p>\n<p><b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p>\n<p>We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p>\n<p>This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p>\n<p>True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p>\n<p><b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p>\n<p>As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p>\n<p><b>Three themes to follow</b></p>\n<p>If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p>\n<p><b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p>\n<p><b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891586616,"gmtCreate":1628400057535,"gmtModify":1703505882914,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891586616","repostId":"1155656235","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155656235","pubTimestamp":1628227304,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155656235?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-06 13:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155656235","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector\nAnalysts see stellar sales ","content":"<p>Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78101d8010e186fe4df59b2ef82b5de6\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Analysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)</span></p>\n<p>U.S. investors remain bullish, despite rumblings out of China and the spike in delta variant infections.</p>\n<p>Cloud companies — those at the forefront of the shift in computing power to distributed models over the internet — are expected to grow at a rapid clip over the next several years, and four of the five largest exchange traded funds covering the space are close to hitting record highs.</p>\n<p>Below is a screen of stocks held by those ETFs, showing which are expected to increase their sales the most through 2023. In an industry with many players at relatively early stages, increases in sales, rather than in earnings, might be the best driver of stock prices.</p>\n<p>To begin the screen, we looked at the five largest cloud ETFs:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36209ce827d95e822cad5128be8b146a\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"664\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p>ETFs might be your best way to take a broad approach for a long-term play on the cloud revolution. If you are interested in any ETF, you should review the fund manager’s website.</p>\n<p>Here’s a comparison of total returns through Aug. 4, along with those for the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF&nbsp;and the Invesco QQQ Trust&nbsp;(which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index) for comparison:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/242f135b3c7cca3cbaae3ee574023c1f\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"577\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p>The ETFs’ approaches differ. For example, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF&nbsp;is the only one that is actively managed. The others track an index. It is also the only one that holds shares of Tesla Inc.,which makes up 10.65% of the portfolio, according to information posted by ARK Invest on Aug. 5. Tesla is an electric-vehicle manufacturer, but it can also be considered a cloud company because it distributes software updates over the internet continually, and offers other cloud-based services.</p>\n<p>Another holding unique to ARKW among the five cloud ETFs is Walt Disney Co.,which is certainly an important cloud player through its Disney+ streaming service, even if the company doesn’t say directly how much of its sales are derived from that rapidly growing segment.</p>\n<p>As part of its description of ARKW, FactSet says the following:</p>\n<p><i>“Broadly speaking, the ARKW’s managers appear focused on big buzzwords such as Internet of Things, cloud computing, digital currencies and wearable technology. While the fund’s focus may be appealing for investors with conviction in these new technologies, portfolio implementation is a more difficult task: Most of the companies developing these advancements are huge corporations for which nascent technologies are only a small fraction of total revenues. As such, it’s very difficult to get pure-play access to ARKW’s targeted technologies — so be sure to confirm that the fund’s holdings — not just its thesis — align with your view of the space.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Cloud-stock screen</b></p>\n<p>Together, the five cloud ETFs listed above hold 147 stocks. To project sales growth through 2023, we used calendar 2020 sales estimates as a baseline and then looked at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the subsequent three years, if available. (The 2020 numbers are estimates, because many companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar.)</p>\n<p>To make sure we had a solid set of estimates, we confined the group to the 126 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, for which consensus sales estimates for calendar 2020 through calendar 2023 are available.</p>\n<p>Here are the 20 companies projected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/517a23591cde159fb889ab80abc4bcc6\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"765\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af2cf5b5f9f0ce50f8f023ac7babc7f\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"717\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b88ebe72e09cb9ce3294269f0a4ae431\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p>There are actually 21 stocks listed, including Zillow Group Inc.’s Class A&nbsp;and Class C&nbsp;shares.</p>\n<p>It is interesting to see that the list is dominated by stocks held by ARKW. The fund has a broad definition of cloud companies and is focused also on sales growth.</p>\n<p>Here are current forward price-to-sales ratios based on consensus estimates for the next 12 months, as well as ratios of current market cap to projected 2023 sales and summaries of analysts’ opinions about the stocks.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19b9c4bf1d8b1abcfa76b7d008a47ad7\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"805\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff191189c5d7d2f31698843734ca3cc\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"773\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e9543489c4d52d3f1a69dfdcf170115\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"242\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FactSet</span></p>\n<p>In comparison, the forward price-to-sales ratio for SPY is 2.8, with a price/2023 estimated sales ratio of 2.6. For QQQ, the current P/S is 4.7, declining to 4.3 for 2023.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n20 cloud stocks expected to increase sales the most over the next two years\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-06 13:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-cloud-stocks-expected-to-increase-sales-the-most-over-the-next-two-years-11628186683?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector\nAnalysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)\nU.S. investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-cloud-stocks-expected-to-increase-sales-the-most-over-the-next-two-years-11628186683?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MELI":"MercadoLibre","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","Z":"Zillow","PDD":"拼多多","SKLZ":"Skillz Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉","SNAP":"Snap Inc","KC":"金山云","LC":"LendingClub","ADYEY":"Adyen N.V.","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","ZG":"Zillow Class A","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","VCYT":"Veracyte Inc","ROKU":"Roku Inc","SQ":"Block","SHOP":"Shopify Inc","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/20-cloud-stocks-expected-to-increase-sales-the-most-over-the-next-two-years-11628186683?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155656235","content_text":"Cloud ETFs are close to record highs, propelled by a rally in the sector\nAnalysts see stellar sales growth ahead for companies that provide cloud services. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)\nU.S. investors remain bullish, despite rumblings out of China and the spike in delta variant infections.\nCloud companies — those at the forefront of the shift in computing power to distributed models over the internet — are expected to grow at a rapid clip over the next several years, and four of the five largest exchange traded funds covering the space are close to hitting record highs.\nBelow is a screen of stocks held by those ETFs, showing which are expected to increase their sales the most through 2023. In an industry with many players at relatively early stages, increases in sales, rather than in earnings, might be the best driver of stock prices.\nTo begin the screen, we looked at the five largest cloud ETFs:\nSource: FactSet\nETFs might be your best way to take a broad approach for a long-term play on the cloud revolution. If you are interested in any ETF, you should review the fund manager’s website.\nHere’s a comparison of total returns through Aug. 4, along with those for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF and the Invesco QQQ Trust (which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index) for comparison:\nSource: FactSet\nThe ETFs’ approaches differ. For example, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF is the only one that is actively managed. The others track an index. It is also the only one that holds shares of Tesla Inc.,which makes up 10.65% of the portfolio, according to information posted by ARK Invest on Aug. 5. Tesla is an electric-vehicle manufacturer, but it can also be considered a cloud company because it distributes software updates over the internet continually, and offers other cloud-based services.\nAnother holding unique to ARKW among the five cloud ETFs is Walt Disney Co.,which is certainly an important cloud player through its Disney+ streaming service, even if the company doesn’t say directly how much of its sales are derived from that rapidly growing segment.\nAs part of its description of ARKW, FactSet says the following:\n“Broadly speaking, the ARKW’s managers appear focused on big buzzwords such as Internet of Things, cloud computing, digital currencies and wearable technology. While the fund’s focus may be appealing for investors with conviction in these new technologies, portfolio implementation is a more difficult task: Most of the companies developing these advancements are huge corporations for which nascent technologies are only a small fraction of total revenues. As such, it’s very difficult to get pure-play access to ARKW’s targeted technologies — so be sure to confirm that the fund’s holdings — not just its thesis — align with your view of the space.”\nCloud-stock screen\nTogether, the five cloud ETFs listed above hold 147 stocks. To project sales growth through 2023, we used calendar 2020 sales estimates as a baseline and then looked at consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet for the subsequent three years, if available. (The 2020 numbers are estimates, because many companies’ fiscal years don’t match the calendar.)\nTo make sure we had a solid set of estimates, we confined the group to the 126 companies covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet, for which consensus sales estimates for calendar 2020 through calendar 2023 are available.\nHere are the 20 companies projected to have the highest compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for sales through calendar 2023:\n\nSource: FactSet\nThere are actually 21 stocks listed, including Zillow Group Inc.’s Class A and Class C shares.\nIt is interesting to see that the list is dominated by stocks held by ARKW. The fund has a broad definition of cloud companies and is focused also on sales growth.\nHere are current forward price-to-sales ratios based on consensus estimates for the next 12 months, as well as ratios of current market cap to projected 2023 sales and summaries of analysts’ opinions about the stocks.\n\nSource: FactSet\nIn comparison, the forward price-to-sales ratio for SPY is 2.8, with a price/2023 estimated sales ratio of 2.6. For QQQ, the current P/S is 4.7, declining to 4.3 for 2023.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808179816,"gmtCreate":1627566894935,"gmtModify":1703492523614,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice!&nbsp;","listText":"Nice!&nbsp;","text":"Nice!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/808179816","repostId":"2154099201","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154099201","pubTimestamp":1627384921,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154099201?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-27 19:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 of the Fastest-Growing Stocks on the Planet","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154099201","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Sales for these companies are expected to increase between 270% and 1,100% over the next four or five years.","content":"<p>For over 12 years, growth stocks have been the talk of Wall Street -- and with good reason. Persistently low lending rates have allowed fast-growing companies abundant access to cheap capital that they've been able to use to hire new employees, acquire other businesses, and innovate for the future. With the nation's central bank standing firm on its monetary policy, at least in the near-term, growth stocks should continue to thrive.</p>\n<p>Of course, not all growth stocks are created equally. The following five companies are projected by Wall Street to be some of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet over the next four or five years, assuming analysts' sales projections (per <b>FactSet</b>) come to fruition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccad26103b3c97bbb65d0cad160f21b9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>: Implied five-year sales growth of 819%</h2>\n<p>Among cloud stocks, you'd struggle to find a company with a persistently higher annualized growth rate than <b>Snowflake</b> (NYSE:SNOW). After bringing in $592 million in full-year sales in fiscal 2021, Wall Street is looking for the company to deliver $5.44 billion in annual sales in fiscal 2026.</p>\n<p>What really has Wall Street excited are Snowflake's plain-as-day competitive advantages. Most notably, its cloud data-warehousing solutions are layered atop the most-popular infrastructure storage solutions. Whereas it can be difficult for businesses to share data that's stored on competing cloud service providers, this sharing of information is seamless for Snowflake's customers.</p>\n<p>Snowflake also shunned the subscription-based operating model in favor of a pay-as-you-go model. By charging its clients for the amount of data stored and the number of Snowflake Compute Credits used, the company is making its pricing transparent and potentially more cost-effective for users.</p>\n<p>While there's no question Snowflake is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet, where the company's stock should be valued is debatable. Though some premium is merited for such consistently high growth rates, I'm not so sure paying 71 times sales for this year makes sense for a company that's still many years away from profitability. There may not be significant downside here, but I also fail to see how this valuation stretches much further to the upside.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df219df7b01fbc2aa008c455f28b99e5\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Teladoc Health: Implied five-year sales growth of 416%</h2>\n<p>Healthcare stocks on the leading edge of innovation are a pretty good bet to be among the fastest-growing stocks on the planet through mid-decade. Telehealth services giant <b>Teladoc Health</b> (NYSE:TDOC) is expected to see its annual sales climb from a reported $1.09 billion in 2020 to an estimated $5.62 billion by 2025. That's an increase of 416%, for those of you keeping score at home.</p>\n<p>Even though Teladoc found itself in an ideal scenario in 2020, with the coronavirus pandemic wreaking havoc in the U.S., this was a company growing sales by an annualized average of 74% in the six years leading up to the pandemic. In other words, we're clearly not talking about a one-hit wonder.</p>\n<p>Telemedicine is the future of healthcare in the U.S. and globally. While not all appointments can be conducted virtually, telehealth visits will provide added convenience for patients and make it considerably easier for doctor's to keep tabs on patients with chronic illnesses. This ease-of-use should result in improved patient outcomes, which'll mean less money out of the pockets of insurers.</p>\n<p>Teladoc's rapid growth is also a function of its buyout of applied health signals company Livongo Health in the fourth quarter. Livongo leans on artificial intelligence to send its chronically ill members tips to help them lead healthier lives. It ended the first quarter with 658,000 diabetes members, and the company was already profitable before being bought out by Teladoc. As a combined company, this duo looks unstoppable.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F635018%2Fsquare-cash-card-cash-app.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Square.</span></p>\n<h2>Square: Implied five-year sales growth of 299%</h2>\n<p>Fintech stock <b>Square</b> (NYSE:SQ) is also projected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on the planet through the midpoint of the decade. Following its sales surge in 2020 to $9.5 billion, Wall Street's consensus for 2025 is that it'll bring in $37.86 billion. That's a hair shy of a quadrupling in sales in five years.</p>\n<p>Square's most foundational growth driver, its seller ecosystem, will continue to point the needle higher. The amount of gross payment volume (GPV) traversing its network grew by an annualized average of 49% in the seven years leading up to the pandemic, but tailed off considerably in 2020 as merchants closed up shop due to the pandemic. With the U.S. economy reopening, Square looks to be on track for strong double-digit GPV growth this year.</p>\n<p>However, the company's key growth driver is digital peer-to-peer platform Cash App. Cash App's monthly active user count more than quintupled since the end of 2017 to 36 million, and it's been a consistently more popular download than <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b>'s Venmo.&nbsp; All told, Cash App allows Square to generate revenue from bank transfers, merchant purchases, and investments, which includes <b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;exchange and trading.</p>\n<p>As of the end of 2020, the typical Cash App user was generating $41 in gross profit for Square, compared to less than $5 to acquire each new monthly active user. That's a heck of a trade-off that should make Square's shareholders very happy.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c8c7cdfeae935529dbccbf6b0c507c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Jushi Holdings: Implied four-year sales growth of 1,100%</h2>\n<p>The U.S. cannabis industry is home to a number of companies that'll deliver triple-digit sales growth over the next four or five years. But marijuana stock <b>Jushi Holdings</b> (OTC:JUSHF) might have them all beat, with sales growth expected to hit 1,100% by 2024 ($81 million in 2020 to $972 million in 2024).</p>\n<p>Compared to other multistate operators, Jushi is a tiny tot. It has 20 operational dispensaries at the moment, with 13 of those retail locations in Pennsylvania. The real key to Jushi's strategy is targeting markets that offer some level of competitive protection. That's why it's chosen to focus on Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia.</p>\n<p>While all three of these markets offer billion-dollar annual sales potential -- Illinois surpassed $1 billion in weed sales for the first time in 2020 -- the real lure is that they limit how many retail licenses are issued in total, as well as to individual businesses. Pennsylvania and Illinois have preset caps in place, whereas Virginia assigns licenses based on jurisdiction. This effectively limits Jushi's competition and ensures it'll be able to build up its brand and grab a loyal following.</p>\n<p>Investors should also note that, despite its relatively small market cap, Jushi isn't afraid to go shopping. In January, the company acquired two dispensaries in California, the largest weed market in the world by annual sales.&nbsp; It also bought its way into Nevada in April.&nbsp; The Silver State is projected to lead the country in cannabis spending per capita by mid-decade. In other words, smart planning by management has Jushi set up for some serious growth.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd808070a9dde55f37210b59edc2e23\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.</span></p>\n<h2>Tesla Motors: Implied five-year sales growth of 270%</h2>\n<p>A final company most investors know well that has supercharged growth potential over the next five years is electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer <b>Tesla Motors</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla brought in $31.5 billion in full-year sales in 2020, but Wall Street's consensus has the company pegged for $116.64 billion in sales by 2025.</p>\n<p>Tesla is a clear and obvious beneficiary of the U.S. and most developed countries wanting to pursue cleaner energy solutions in order to reduce long-term carbon dioxide emissions. It's the first automaker in more than five decades to successfully build itself from the ground up to mass production, and it offers definitive first-mover advantages in the United States.</p>\n<p>In particular, Tesla Motors' battery technology remains unsurpassed, at least for the time being. The company's batteries have better range, more power, and higher capacity than the competition. Considering that cash is no longer a concern, the company has more than enough capital to continue constructing new Gigafactories to assemble its vehicles and produce batteries.</p>\n<p>But like Snowflake, valuation is a serious concern. You'd think a company with a $620 billion market cap, as of this past weekend, would be able to generate a profit from the products or services it sells. That's not the case with Tesla. Its adjusted profits have always come from selling renewable energy credits to other automakers or selling its digital assets (Bitcoin) for a profit. Based solely on its operating performance, Tesla still isn't making money. That makes its existing valuation dicey, at best.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 of the Fastest-Growing Stocks on the Planet</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 of the Fastest-Growing Stocks on the Planet\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 19:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/5-of-the-fastest-growing-stocks-on-the-planet/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For over 12 years, growth stocks have been the talk of Wall Street -- and with good reason. Persistently low lending rates have allowed fast-growing companies abundant access to cheap capital that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/5-of-the-fastest-growing-stocks-on-the-planet/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNOW":"Snowflake","TSLA":"特斯拉","TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","SQ":"Block","JUSHF":"Jushi Holdings Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/27/5-of-the-fastest-growing-stocks-on-the-planet/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154099201","content_text":"For over 12 years, growth stocks have been the talk of Wall Street -- and with good reason. Persistently low lending rates have allowed fast-growing companies abundant access to cheap capital that they've been able to use to hire new employees, acquire other businesses, and innovate for the future. With the nation's central bank standing firm on its monetary policy, at least in the near-term, growth stocks should continue to thrive.\nOf course, not all growth stocks are created equally. The following five companies are projected by Wall Street to be some of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet over the next four or five years, assuming analysts' sales projections (per FactSet) come to fruition.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nSnowflake: Implied five-year sales growth of 819%\nAmong cloud stocks, you'd struggle to find a company with a persistently higher annualized growth rate than Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW). After bringing in $592 million in full-year sales in fiscal 2021, Wall Street is looking for the company to deliver $5.44 billion in annual sales in fiscal 2026.\nWhat really has Wall Street excited are Snowflake's plain-as-day competitive advantages. Most notably, its cloud data-warehousing solutions are layered atop the most-popular infrastructure storage solutions. Whereas it can be difficult for businesses to share data that's stored on competing cloud service providers, this sharing of information is seamless for Snowflake's customers.\nSnowflake also shunned the subscription-based operating model in favor of a pay-as-you-go model. By charging its clients for the amount of data stored and the number of Snowflake Compute Credits used, the company is making its pricing transparent and potentially more cost-effective for users.\nWhile there's no question Snowflake is one of the fastest-growing stocks on the planet, where the company's stock should be valued is debatable. Though some premium is merited for such consistently high growth rates, I'm not so sure paying 71 times sales for this year makes sense for a company that's still many years away from profitability. There may not be significant downside here, but I also fail to see how this valuation stretches much further to the upside.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nTeladoc Health: Implied five-year sales growth of 416%\nHealthcare stocks on the leading edge of innovation are a pretty good bet to be among the fastest-growing stocks on the planet through mid-decade. Telehealth services giant Teladoc Health (NYSE:TDOC) is expected to see its annual sales climb from a reported $1.09 billion in 2020 to an estimated $5.62 billion by 2025. That's an increase of 416%, for those of you keeping score at home.\nEven though Teladoc found itself in an ideal scenario in 2020, with the coronavirus pandemic wreaking havoc in the U.S., this was a company growing sales by an annualized average of 74% in the six years leading up to the pandemic. In other words, we're clearly not talking about a one-hit wonder.\nTelemedicine is the future of healthcare in the U.S. and globally. While not all appointments can be conducted virtually, telehealth visits will provide added convenience for patients and make it considerably easier for doctor's to keep tabs on patients with chronic illnesses. This ease-of-use should result in improved patient outcomes, which'll mean less money out of the pockets of insurers.\nTeladoc's rapid growth is also a function of its buyout of applied health signals company Livongo Health in the fourth quarter. Livongo leans on artificial intelligence to send its chronically ill members tips to help them lead healthier lives. It ended the first quarter with 658,000 diabetes members, and the company was already profitable before being bought out by Teladoc. As a combined company, this duo looks unstoppable.\nImage source: Square.\nSquare: Implied five-year sales growth of 299%\nFintech stock Square (NYSE:SQ) is also projected to be one of the fastest-growing companies on the planet through the midpoint of the decade. Following its sales surge in 2020 to $9.5 billion, Wall Street's consensus for 2025 is that it'll bring in $37.86 billion. That's a hair shy of a quadrupling in sales in five years.\nSquare's most foundational growth driver, its seller ecosystem, will continue to point the needle higher. The amount of gross payment volume (GPV) traversing its network grew by an annualized average of 49% in the seven years leading up to the pandemic, but tailed off considerably in 2020 as merchants closed up shop due to the pandemic. With the U.S. economy reopening, Square looks to be on track for strong double-digit GPV growth this year.\nHowever, the company's key growth driver is digital peer-to-peer platform Cash App. Cash App's monthly active user count more than quintupled since the end of 2017 to 36 million, and it's been a consistently more popular download than PayPal's Venmo.  All told, Cash App allows Square to generate revenue from bank transfers, merchant purchases, and investments, which includes Bitcoin exchange and trading.\nAs of the end of 2020, the typical Cash App user was generating $41 in gross profit for Square, compared to less than $5 to acquire each new monthly active user. That's a heck of a trade-off that should make Square's shareholders very happy.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nJushi Holdings: Implied four-year sales growth of 1,100%\nThe U.S. cannabis industry is home to a number of companies that'll deliver triple-digit sales growth over the next four or five years. But marijuana stock Jushi Holdings (OTC:JUSHF) might have them all beat, with sales growth expected to hit 1,100% by 2024 ($81 million in 2020 to $972 million in 2024).\nCompared to other multistate operators, Jushi is a tiny tot. It has 20 operational dispensaries at the moment, with 13 of those retail locations in Pennsylvania. The real key to Jushi's strategy is targeting markets that offer some level of competitive protection. That's why it's chosen to focus on Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Virginia.\nWhile all three of these markets offer billion-dollar annual sales potential -- Illinois surpassed $1 billion in weed sales for the first time in 2020 -- the real lure is that they limit how many retail licenses are issued in total, as well as to individual businesses. Pennsylvania and Illinois have preset caps in place, whereas Virginia assigns licenses based on jurisdiction. This effectively limits Jushi's competition and ensures it'll be able to build up its brand and grab a loyal following.\nInvestors should also note that, despite its relatively small market cap, Jushi isn't afraid to go shopping. In January, the company acquired two dispensaries in California, the largest weed market in the world by annual sales.  It also bought its way into Nevada in April.  The Silver State is projected to lead the country in cannabis spending per capita by mid-decade. In other words, smart planning by management has Jushi set up for some serious growth.\nA Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.\nTesla Motors: Implied five-year sales growth of 270%\nA final company most investors know well that has supercharged growth potential over the next five years is electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA). Tesla brought in $31.5 billion in full-year sales in 2020, but Wall Street's consensus has the company pegged for $116.64 billion in sales by 2025.\nTesla is a clear and obvious beneficiary of the U.S. and most developed countries wanting to pursue cleaner energy solutions in order to reduce long-term carbon dioxide emissions. It's the first automaker in more than five decades to successfully build itself from the ground up to mass production, and it offers definitive first-mover advantages in the United States.\nIn particular, Tesla Motors' battery technology remains unsurpassed, at least for the time being. The company's batteries have better range, more power, and higher capacity than the competition. Considering that cash is no longer a concern, the company has more than enough capital to continue constructing new Gigafactories to assemble its vehicles and produce batteries.\nBut like Snowflake, valuation is a serious concern. You'd think a company with a $620 billion market cap, as of this past weekend, would be able to generate a profit from the products or services it sells. That's not the case with Tesla. Its adjusted profits have always come from selling renewable energy credits to other automakers or selling its digital assets (Bitcoin) for a profit. Based solely on its operating performance, Tesla still isn't making money. That makes its existing valuation dicey, at best.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836176763,"gmtCreate":1629467766752,"gmtModify":1676530050830,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Very good analysis and breakdown","listText":"Very good analysis and breakdown","text":"Very good analysis and breakdown","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836176763","repostId":"1113659023","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113659023","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629430265,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113659023?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 11:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley：China's Regulatory Reset","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113659023","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It could rebalance the share of economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more profound market impact.New objective triggering major regulatory reset: We are at a signifi- cant moment in the history of China’s economy and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shi","content":"<blockquote>\n Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling&nbsp;social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It could rebalance the share of&nbsp;economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more&nbsp;profound market impact.\n</blockquote>\n<p><i><b>New objective triggering major regulatory reset: </b></i>We are at a signifi- cant moment in the history of China’s economy and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shifting governance priorities from growth to balancing growth and sustainability: social equality, data security, and self-sufficiency. China's new regulations on fintech, big tech, after-school tutoring, cryptocurrency, and carbon emissions over the past nine months underpin this major regulatory reset.</p>\n<p><i><b>Economic implications:</b></i> Under the new governance paradigm, China appears to be attempting to check the rise in corporate power and rebalance the share of the economy in favor of labor, which could result in decline in corporate profit share. We see regulatory head- winds for sectors associated with rising tensions of social inequality, environmental sustainability, and data security risks, while the new framework provides policy support to advanced manufacturing, tech localization, and renewable energy. We remain watchful of the risk of over-regulation, or, in contrast, resumption of offshore (Hong Kong) IPOs for tech companies, clarity over employment benefits and other issues concerning platform companies, progress on audit access dis- pute resolution, and clearer guidance from top policymakers to curb spillover effects of regulation changes.</p>\n<p><b><i>Investment implications:</i></b> We expect a longer and more profound impact from the current regulatory cycle on China's equity market valuations and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) than has occurred in sim- ilar past cycles, as it is affecting a more substantial proportion of the market than previously and, in particular, the Internet sector, which accounts for ~40% of MSCI China by index weight. There is a substan- tial degree of uncertainty over what this means both for future net income margins and revenue growth for the affected sectors and stocks.</p>\n<p>Our current base case forward P/E target for MSCI China of 13.0x implies MSCI China would trade on a mid-single-digit percentage val- uation discount to MSCI EM ex China for a sustained period of time. Over time we expect the MSCI China universe to gradually have a more balanced sector allocation with a reduced weight for Internet and a higher weight for sectors like Industrials and IT.</p>\n<p><i><b>Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme</b></i>: Data-heavy tech and platform companies and property could remain under pressure amid the regulatory reset, while semi localization, cybersecurity, domestic brands catering to the mass market, innovative drugs, bio- tech, and green economy may enjoy support.</p>\n<p><b>5&nbsp;Key Charts at a Glance</b></p>\n<p>A shift from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability...<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da734c8c3853c4f5e3ef9f420b44128\" tg-width=\"1384\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ef8f29c3d6672ff460eb2c2f53e4bd\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6b44f17975c68e81956d1f48f1a1f\" tg-width=\"1420\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28739534c43a8f4ad6130734def1060e\" tg-width=\"1396\" tg-height=\"998\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081b21f4492f2e201aa01ce3bf0cc0cf\" tg-width=\"1442\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e0b9b6480a2b1c9c338ece5db0f691\" tg-width=\"1378\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2a916e7de802073a0628962cc2cfe6\" tg-width=\"1114\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab4ef36aba8f43d66471c352d81a93f\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Understanding China's Regulatory Reset</b></p>\n<p>New era, new objective...</p>\n<p>We believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a shift in China's governance priorities from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability – i.e., security, self-sufficiency, and social equality. In the last decade Beijing said its key goal was to double per capita income and eliminate absolute poverty (President Xi’s inaugural speech in Nov. 2012), i.e., giving highest priority to growth. However, this \"pro-growth\" strategy also led to higher inequality and social problems due to lack of regulations on emerging sectors, pointing to the importance of \"pro-poor\" measures as a complement (see World Bank (2004): Pro-growth, pro-poor: Is there a tradeoff?). Now, the government is emphasizing “getting rich together” (common prosperity) as the new objective for the next stage of development in the midst of the CCP's 100-year anniversary, and aims to \"prevent the unbridled expansion of capital\" by intro- ducing a range of KPIs besides economic growth, which covers social equality, supply chain self-sufficiency and data security in the face of rising secular risks – income inequality, US-China tensions, and aging demographics.</p>\n<p>Reflecting this reorientation, policymakers have intensified regu- lations in the past 9 months over fintech, big tech (anti-trust, data regulation and employee protection), after-school tutoring, crypto- currency, carbon emissions and overseas IPO rules. The anti-trust campaign has mainly targeted the prevention of tech giants from an over-concentration of market power and eroding welfare of smaller businesses and outsourced employees; the fintech regulation serves&nbsp;the purpose of curbing regulatory arbitrage and financial stability risks; and the increased scrutiny over Chinese ADRs and cross-border data flow in July 2021 mainly focuses on reducing risks of security amid lingering geopolitical tensions. Similarly, the recent regulatory changes to after-school tutoring are part of policy efforts to reduce child-raising costs.</p>\n<p>In short, China is trying to rebalance the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and this may lead to some systematic de-rating in valuations for some sectors. Having said that, policymakers will have to strike a balance, as China's ambition to thrive as an economic super power will require it to ensure con- tinued private sector vitality to spur innovation and further RMB internationalization to attract capital inflows, so as to sustain long- term productivity growth. While the new regulations introduce more requirements on social responsibility and data usage, and might lead to some increase in margin pressures for related enterprises, we think they will not disrupt business models for most sectors (except for after-school tutoring). For instance, the anti-trust law mainly focuses on banning tech-giants from requiring merchants to sign exclusive cooperation pacts, while the government's guidance on enhancing flexible workers' social benefits mainly requires food delivery platforms to pay healthcare and pension coverage for out- sourced employees. Online goods sales have also held up quite well recently despite the tech regulation campaign starting from late last year. Meanwhile, some regulatory changes are supportive for advanced manufacturing, hardware localization, and clean energy supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed81f65a92f4b2731263273025f4a53\" tg-width=\"1108\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0dce11e47f8023f88a4ab2622f89e6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">...but history rhymes</p>\n<p>While many of the regulations appear long-overdue and make sense (for example on fintech, anti-trust and outsourced labour protec- tion), the pace of changes in last 9 months has caught the market off-guard as a seemingly arbitrary shift in direction.</p>\n<p>Why has it occurred in such fashion? We have indeed seen this movie many times: China’s regulatory environments have tended to oscillate between relaxed and tight enforcement, especially in emerging sectors. But this has tended to result in an abrupt regula- tory reset. Before the current reversal in regulating big tech, China had a regulation campaign on mining (2006-2009), dairy (2008- 2010), high-end dining and liquor (2013-2014), irrational capital out-&nbsp;flows (2016-17), gaming (2018), and drugs (2018-2019) – most lasting for one to two years. The sharp shifts in regulatory changes have been largely due to the fact that regulations have tended to lag a period of exponential growth in the sector:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Relaxed stage: Local government support, pro-growth men- tality and business interests together contributed to a lag in regulating emerging sectors.</li>\n <li>Tight regulation stage: When a problem is looming as evi- denced by public opinion and/or financial stability indicators, the top leadership shifts gears, quickly mobilizes all administra- tive resources to reorientate its policy control and bolster its regulatory capacity.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cb4228c860070dfebe954a1a937a1e\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the abrupt shifts in policy tend to hurt market confi- dence and would benefit from more clarity: In past regulatory cycles, capital markets usually underperformed at the start, reflecting weaker market sentiment in the face of policy uncertainty, suggesting the need for greater policy communication. Historical patterns suggest that as an initial step to restore private sector confi- dence, minister-level officials attempt to clarify policy goals publicly. But if this communication is insufficient to temper concern and even- tually weakness in private confidence hurts the job market, top-level policymakers tend to step in.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Here we can take 2H18 as an example, when the triple headwinds of deleveraging, regulatory tightening, and US-China trade tensions triggered market concerns about \"state advances, private sector retreats\". By then, while policymakers already shifted to an easing stance in July 2018 with PBoC's targeted RRR cut, followed by the Ministry of Finance's urge to accelerate local govt. bond issuance in August 2018, it did not stop the deterioration in broad credit growth&nbsp;and private sector confidence. In response, China's President con- vened a forum with entrepreneurs in November 2018 to send a clear signal on supporting private firms.</p>\n<p>We also see a similar pattern emerging from the government in trying to provide clarity in this cycle. For instance, China's Vice Premier spoke at a business forum on July 27, saying that the nation would \"strike a balance between growth and safety, to ensure social fairness and competition, and promote healthy development of the capital market\". According to Bloomberg, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also told major investment banks on July 28 that the education policies were targeted and not intended to hurt com- panies in other industries. Separately, the government of Zhejiang province (one of China's richest provinces) clarified in mid-July that the “common prosperity initiative” does not mean \"absolute equal\". We will be watchful on the potential impact of intensified regulations on private sector confidence, and see if the existing government clari- fications are sufficient to restore market sentiment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a679cb541385fed3b741397ff984c65\" tg-width=\"1134\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What is next?</b></p>\n<p>The salient shift of governance priorities from “growth first” to bal- anced growth and sustainability means that sectoral regulations will likely continue to be realigned with the broader goals of social equality and national security. We thus see potential new regulation and/or detailed implementation plans in the coming years for sectors associated with the rising tensions of income and wealth inequality, rapid fertility decline, environment, and national security risks amid post-Covid de-globalization.</p>\n<p>That said, as aforementioned, we think these regulations are more about rebalancing the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and would not necessarily view them through the lens of “state vs. private”. Therefore, while we expect regulatory tightening on data-rich tech firms, platform companies, property developers to continue, sectors in-line with China's new economic agenda should continue to get support, such as semiconductor local- ization, cybersecurity software, innovative biotech and pharmaceu- tical companies with well-differentiated drugs, mass consumption/ domestic brands, vocational training, and green economy-related investment. For more equity investment analysis, please refer to</p>\n<p>China Equity Strategy: Implications for Long-Term Valuation and ROE; Opportunities amid Headwinds &amp; Tailwinds . Understanding China's Regulatory Reset&nbsp;Are there signposts to help us navigate the outlook based on past regulatory changes?</p>\n<p>While China’s regulatory changes appear less transparent than western counterparts, we do observe similar cycles marked succes- sively by early warning signs, the formal process of drafting and releasing the regulatory documents, and official remarks signaling the end of the campaigns.</p>\n<p>1. Early warning signs: These include increased social aware- ness/anxiety, public discussions, and meaningful deterioration in major macro level indicators, usually lasting 1-2 years (or possibly longer). For example, the latest crackdown on after- school tutoring followed top leaders’ negative assessment of the sector’s impact on children back in Sep-2018, but rapid growth continued, imposing a significant financial burden on middle income households. The antitrust campaign on tech giants was preceded by years of discussion over the contro- versy from \"pick one from two\" – a practice that came under the spotlight in 2015, which means platforms force merchants to have exclusive partnerships or distribution channels. Meanwhile, prominent macro-level regulatory campaigns include the financial cleanup since 2017 (following the five- year rapid rise in debt-to-GDP ratios) and capacity cuts in 2016-18 (following multiyear PPI deflation that further deep- ened in 2015).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5352ef9df13a439c37493e9a8ca53c\" tg-width=\"1126\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. The start of the formal regulatory cycle: This is usually marked either by approval of draft regulations at high-level government meetings or the release of a publicly accessible version for comment. The final document usually publishes 9-12 months later. For example, the latest regulatory docu- ment on capital market irregularities had been drafted and approved last November. In addition, the government will often release detailed plans for implementation, accompa- nying the original (and usually high-level) guidelines.</p>\n<p>3. Signs of reaching the final stages: For regulatory campaigns that have progressed relatively more smoothly, policymakers usually declare good results in high-level meetings – such as&nbsp;\"decisive progress in the three critical battles against poverty, pollution and financial risk\" at the 2021 NPC. On the other hand, for campaigns that brought about meaningful side effects, policymakers tended to soften their stance by, for example, calling for more market- or law-based implementa- tions (e.g., the latter stage of the supply side reforms). In rare cases when private sentiment was severely undermined on a broad scale, China's top leadership has reaffirmed its policy support with measures such as VAT cuts, lower social insur- ance payment ratio, better funding support, and further reforms and opening up.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc249af2f4c828e1675a81878fef5910\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"966\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Emergence of new norm following the regulatory shocks:</b> Past experiences suggest that each regulatory wave tends to last for 1-2 years, during the start of which capital markets usually underper- formed amid rising risk premiums, but eventually the real economy and capital market adjusted to the new policy framework. As we argued above, most of the ongoing regulation (except for after- school tutoring) mainly focuses on striking a balance between the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation rather than aiming to revamp or terminate prevailing business models. In this sense, we believe the key signposts for an end to the current tech regulatory cycle could include:</p>\n<p>1. A resumption of offshore IPOs by Chinese firms within less data-sensitive sub-sectors,</p>\n<p>2. A systematic improvement in key digital platforms’ social ben- efit packages for flexible workers, and</p>\n<p>3. Major fintech companies getting the greenlight for IPOs after fully complying with regulatory requirements.</p>\n<p><b>Key policy risks to watch</b></p>\n<p>We think the key risks lie mainly in China's endogenous growth momentum and external funding. First, while our base case assumes that policymakers can strike a balance between regulation and pri- vate sector vitality under the new policy framework, an inherent tendency to over-regulate could stifle private sector confidence and innovation. Second, a lack of sufficient communication and coordina- tion would not only disrupt business operations, but could also dis- courage foreign investment amid additional informational and cultural barriers. These could slow the pace of capital formation and undermine overall productivity growth in the economy.</p>\n<p>Although some short-term pain arising from overdue regulation that follows a prolonged period of unregulated growth is inevitable, we see ways of mitigating the policy overhang.</p>\n<p>1. A more anticipatory regulation framework and forward guid- ance for emerging industries could offer greater visibility and transparency, giving businesses sufficient time to adjust.</p>\n<p>2. On policy coordination, regulatory policies would benefit from being pursued in an integrated manner in order to reduce trade-offs and maximize synergies. For example, it might be true that technology in the data era could boost growth, but it could also worsen income inequality, given its effect of favouring capital over labour and favouring skilled over unskilled labour. However, policymakers could narrow income disparities and help to defuse potential negative social impact by accelerating the urbanization 2.0 strategy and increasing fiscal transfers to optimize the social protection network.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30308333dcaae51b19d9d6df98163daa\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley：China's Regulatory Reset</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley：China's Regulatory Reset\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-20 11:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling&nbsp;social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It could rebalance the share of&nbsp;economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more&nbsp;profound market impact.\n</blockquote>\n<p><i><b>New objective triggering major regulatory reset: </b></i>We are at a signifi- cant moment in the history of China’s economy and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shifting governance priorities from growth to balancing growth and sustainability: social equality, data security, and self-sufficiency. China's new regulations on fintech, big tech, after-school tutoring, cryptocurrency, and carbon emissions over the past nine months underpin this major regulatory reset.</p>\n<p><i><b>Economic implications:</b></i> Under the new governance paradigm, China appears to be attempting to check the rise in corporate power and rebalance the share of the economy in favor of labor, which could result in decline in corporate profit share. We see regulatory head- winds for sectors associated with rising tensions of social inequality, environmental sustainability, and data security risks, while the new framework provides policy support to advanced manufacturing, tech localization, and renewable energy. We remain watchful of the risk of over-regulation, or, in contrast, resumption of offshore (Hong Kong) IPOs for tech companies, clarity over employment benefits and other issues concerning platform companies, progress on audit access dis- pute resolution, and clearer guidance from top policymakers to curb spillover effects of regulation changes.</p>\n<p><b><i>Investment implications:</i></b> We expect a longer and more profound impact from the current regulatory cycle on China's equity market valuations and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) than has occurred in sim- ilar past cycles, as it is affecting a more substantial proportion of the market than previously and, in particular, the Internet sector, which accounts for ~40% of MSCI China by index weight. There is a substan- tial degree of uncertainty over what this means both for future net income margins and revenue growth for the affected sectors and stocks.</p>\n<p>Our current base case forward P/E target for MSCI China of 13.0x implies MSCI China would trade on a mid-single-digit percentage val- uation discount to MSCI EM ex China for a sustained period of time. Over time we expect the MSCI China universe to gradually have a more balanced sector allocation with a reduced weight for Internet and a higher weight for sectors like Industrials and IT.</p>\n<p><i><b>Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme</b></i>: Data-heavy tech and platform companies and property could remain under pressure amid the regulatory reset, while semi localization, cybersecurity, domestic brands catering to the mass market, innovative drugs, bio- tech, and green economy may enjoy support.</p>\n<p><b>5&nbsp;Key Charts at a Glance</b></p>\n<p>A shift from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability...<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2da734c8c3853c4f5e3ef9f420b44128\" tg-width=\"1384\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45ef8f29c3d6672ff460eb2c2f53e4bd\" tg-width=\"1372\" tg-height=\"736\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0f6b44f17975c68e81956d1f48f1a1f\" tg-width=\"1420\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28739534c43a8f4ad6130734def1060e\" tg-width=\"1396\" tg-height=\"998\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/081b21f4492f2e201aa01ce3bf0cc0cf\" tg-width=\"1442\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e0b9b6480a2b1c9c338ece5db0f691\" tg-width=\"1378\" tg-height=\"938\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Challenges and opportunities by segment/theme</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee2a916e7de802073a0628962cc2cfe6\" tg-width=\"1114\" tg-height=\"1170\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ab4ef36aba8f43d66471c352d81a93f\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Understanding China's Regulatory Reset</b></p>\n<p>New era, new objective...</p>\n<p>We believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a shift in China's governance priorities from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability – i.e., security, self-sufficiency, and social equality. In the last decade Beijing said its key goal was to double per capita income and eliminate absolute poverty (President Xi’s inaugural speech in Nov. 2012), i.e., giving highest priority to growth. However, this \"pro-growth\" strategy also led to higher inequality and social problems due to lack of regulations on emerging sectors, pointing to the importance of \"pro-poor\" measures as a complement (see World Bank (2004): Pro-growth, pro-poor: Is there a tradeoff?). Now, the government is emphasizing “getting rich together” (common prosperity) as the new objective for the next stage of development in the midst of the CCP's 100-year anniversary, and aims to \"prevent the unbridled expansion of capital\" by intro- ducing a range of KPIs besides economic growth, which covers social equality, supply chain self-sufficiency and data security in the face of rising secular risks – income inequality, US-China tensions, and aging demographics.</p>\n<p>Reflecting this reorientation, policymakers have intensified regu- lations in the past 9 months over fintech, big tech (anti-trust, data regulation and employee protection), after-school tutoring, crypto- currency, carbon emissions and overseas IPO rules. The anti-trust campaign has mainly targeted the prevention of tech giants from an over-concentration of market power and eroding welfare of smaller businesses and outsourced employees; the fintech regulation serves&nbsp;the purpose of curbing regulatory arbitrage and financial stability risks; and the increased scrutiny over Chinese ADRs and cross-border data flow in July 2021 mainly focuses on reducing risks of security amid lingering geopolitical tensions. Similarly, the recent regulatory changes to after-school tutoring are part of policy efforts to reduce child-raising costs.</p>\n<p>In short, China is trying to rebalance the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and this may lead to some systematic de-rating in valuations for some sectors. Having said that, policymakers will have to strike a balance, as China's ambition to thrive as an economic super power will require it to ensure con- tinued private sector vitality to spur innovation and further RMB internationalization to attract capital inflows, so as to sustain long- term productivity growth. While the new regulations introduce more requirements on social responsibility and data usage, and might lead to some increase in margin pressures for related enterprises, we think they will not disrupt business models for most sectors (except for after-school tutoring). For instance, the anti-trust law mainly focuses on banning tech-giants from requiring merchants to sign exclusive cooperation pacts, while the government's guidance on enhancing flexible workers' social benefits mainly requires food delivery platforms to pay healthcare and pension coverage for out- sourced employees. Online goods sales have also held up quite well recently despite the tech regulation campaign starting from late last year. Meanwhile, some regulatory changes are supportive for advanced manufacturing, hardware localization, and clean energy supply chain.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aed81f65a92f4b2731263273025f4a53\" tg-width=\"1108\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb0dce11e47f8023f88a4ab2622f89e6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">...but history rhymes</p>\n<p>While many of the regulations appear long-overdue and make sense (for example on fintech, anti-trust and outsourced labour protec- tion), the pace of changes in last 9 months has caught the market off-guard as a seemingly arbitrary shift in direction.</p>\n<p>Why has it occurred in such fashion? We have indeed seen this movie many times: China’s regulatory environments have tended to oscillate between relaxed and tight enforcement, especially in emerging sectors. But this has tended to result in an abrupt regula- tory reset. Before the current reversal in regulating big tech, China had a regulation campaign on mining (2006-2009), dairy (2008- 2010), high-end dining and liquor (2013-2014), irrational capital out-&nbsp;flows (2016-17), gaming (2018), and drugs (2018-2019) – most lasting for one to two years. The sharp shifts in regulatory changes have been largely due to the fact that regulations have tended to lag a period of exponential growth in the sector:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Relaxed stage: Local government support, pro-growth men- tality and business interests together contributed to a lag in regulating emerging sectors.</li>\n <li>Tight regulation stage: When a problem is looming as evi- denced by public opinion and/or financial stability indicators, the top leadership shifts gears, quickly mobilizes all administra- tive resources to reorientate its policy control and bolster its regulatory capacity.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58cb4228c860070dfebe954a1a937a1e\" tg-width=\"1102\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However, the abrupt shifts in policy tend to hurt market confi- dence and would benefit from more clarity: In past regulatory cycles, capital markets usually underperformed at the start, reflecting weaker market sentiment in the face of policy uncertainty, suggesting the need for greater policy communication. Historical patterns suggest that as an initial step to restore private sector confi- dence, minister-level officials attempt to clarify policy goals publicly. But if this communication is insufficient to temper concern and even- tually weakness in private confidence hurts the job market, top-level policymakers tend to step in.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Here we can take 2H18 as an example, when the triple headwinds of deleveraging, regulatory tightening, and US-China trade tensions triggered market concerns about \"state advances, private sector retreats\". By then, while policymakers already shifted to an easing stance in July 2018 with PBoC's targeted RRR cut, followed by the Ministry of Finance's urge to accelerate local govt. bond issuance in August 2018, it did not stop the deterioration in broad credit growth&nbsp;and private sector confidence. In response, China's President con- vened a forum with entrepreneurs in November 2018 to send a clear signal on supporting private firms.</p>\n<p>We also see a similar pattern emerging from the government in trying to provide clarity in this cycle. For instance, China's Vice Premier spoke at a business forum on July 27, saying that the nation would \"strike a balance between growth and safety, to ensure social fairness and competition, and promote healthy development of the capital market\". According to Bloomberg, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also told major investment banks on July 28 that the education policies were targeted and not intended to hurt com- panies in other industries. Separately, the government of Zhejiang province (one of China's richest provinces) clarified in mid-July that the “common prosperity initiative” does not mean \"absolute equal\". We will be watchful on the potential impact of intensified regulations on private sector confidence, and see if the existing government clari- fications are sufficient to restore market sentiment.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a679cb541385fed3b741397ff984c65\" tg-width=\"1134\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What is next?</b></p>\n<p>The salient shift of governance priorities from “growth first” to bal- anced growth and sustainability means that sectoral regulations will likely continue to be realigned with the broader goals of social equality and national security. We thus see potential new regulation and/or detailed implementation plans in the coming years for sectors associated with the rising tensions of income and wealth inequality, rapid fertility decline, environment, and national security risks amid post-Covid de-globalization.</p>\n<p>That said, as aforementioned, we think these regulations are more about rebalancing the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and would not necessarily view them through the lens of “state vs. private”. Therefore, while we expect regulatory tightening on data-rich tech firms, platform companies, property developers to continue, sectors in-line with China's new economic agenda should continue to get support, such as semiconductor local- ization, cybersecurity software, innovative biotech and pharmaceu- tical companies with well-differentiated drugs, mass consumption/ domestic brands, vocational training, and green economy-related investment. For more equity investment analysis, please refer to</p>\n<p>China Equity Strategy: Implications for Long-Term Valuation and ROE; Opportunities amid Headwinds &amp; Tailwinds . Understanding China's Regulatory Reset&nbsp;Are there signposts to help us navigate the outlook based on past regulatory changes?</p>\n<p>While China’s regulatory changes appear less transparent than western counterparts, we do observe similar cycles marked succes- sively by early warning signs, the formal process of drafting and releasing the regulatory documents, and official remarks signaling the end of the campaigns.</p>\n<p>1. Early warning signs: These include increased social aware- ness/anxiety, public discussions, and meaningful deterioration in major macro level indicators, usually lasting 1-2 years (or possibly longer). For example, the latest crackdown on after- school tutoring followed top leaders’ negative assessment of the sector’s impact on children back in Sep-2018, but rapid growth continued, imposing a significant financial burden on middle income households. The antitrust campaign on tech giants was preceded by years of discussion over the contro- versy from \"pick one from two\" – a practice that came under the spotlight in 2015, which means platforms force merchants to have exclusive partnerships or distribution channels. Meanwhile, prominent macro-level regulatory campaigns include the financial cleanup since 2017 (following the five- year rapid rise in debt-to-GDP ratios) and capacity cuts in 2016-18 (following multiyear PPI deflation that further deep- ened in 2015).<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5352ef9df13a439c37493e9a8ca53c\" tg-width=\"1126\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. The start of the formal regulatory cycle: This is usually marked either by approval of draft regulations at high-level government meetings or the release of a publicly accessible version for comment. The final document usually publishes 9-12 months later. For example, the latest regulatory docu- ment on capital market irregularities had been drafted and approved last November. In addition, the government will often release detailed plans for implementation, accompa- nying the original (and usually high-level) guidelines.</p>\n<p>3. Signs of reaching the final stages: For regulatory campaigns that have progressed relatively more smoothly, policymakers usually declare good results in high-level meetings – such as&nbsp;\"decisive progress in the three critical battles against poverty, pollution and financial risk\" at the 2021 NPC. On the other hand, for campaigns that brought about meaningful side effects, policymakers tended to soften their stance by, for example, calling for more market- or law-based implementa- tions (e.g., the latter stage of the supply side reforms). In rare cases when private sentiment was severely undermined on a broad scale, China's top leadership has reaffirmed its policy support with measures such as VAT cuts, lower social insur- ance payment ratio, better funding support, and further reforms and opening up.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc249af2f4c828e1675a81878fef5910\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"966\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Emergence of new norm following the regulatory shocks:</b> Past experiences suggest that each regulatory wave tends to last for 1-2 years, during the start of which capital markets usually underper- formed amid rising risk premiums, but eventually the real economy and capital market adjusted to the new policy framework. As we argued above, most of the ongoing regulation (except for after- school tutoring) mainly focuses on striking a balance between the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation rather than aiming to revamp or terminate prevailing business models. In this sense, we believe the key signposts for an end to the current tech regulatory cycle could include:</p>\n<p>1. A resumption of offshore IPOs by Chinese firms within less data-sensitive sub-sectors,</p>\n<p>2. A systematic improvement in key digital platforms’ social ben- efit packages for flexible workers, and</p>\n<p>3. Major fintech companies getting the greenlight for IPOs after fully complying with regulatory requirements.</p>\n<p><b>Key policy risks to watch</b></p>\n<p>We think the key risks lie mainly in China's endogenous growth momentum and external funding. First, while our base case assumes that policymakers can strike a balance between regulation and pri- vate sector vitality under the new policy framework, an inherent tendency to over-regulate could stifle private sector confidence and innovation. Second, a lack of sufficient communication and coordina- tion would not only disrupt business operations, but could also dis- courage foreign investment amid additional informational and cultural barriers. These could slow the pace of capital formation and undermine overall productivity growth in the economy.</p>\n<p>Although some short-term pain arising from overdue regulation that follows a prolonged period of unregulated growth is inevitable, we see ways of mitigating the policy overhang.</p>\n<p>1. A more anticipatory regulation framework and forward guid- ance for emerging industries could offer greater visibility and transparency, giving businesses sufficient time to adjust.</p>\n<p>2. On policy coordination, regulatory policies would benefit from being pursued in an integrated manner in order to reduce trade-offs and maximize synergies. For example, it might be true that technology in the data era could boost growth, but it could also worsen income inequality, given its effect of favouring capital over labour and favouring skilled over unskilled labour. However, policymakers could narrow income disparities and help to defuse potential negative social impact by accelerating the urbanization 2.0 strategy and increasing fiscal transfers to optimize the social protection network.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30308333dcaae51b19d9d6df98163daa\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"520\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113659023","content_text":"Beijing is shifting its governance priorities to balancing growth and sustainability, tackling social equality and security with a major regulatory reset. It could rebalance the share of economy toward labor, lowering corporate profit share. We see a longer and more profound market impact.\n\nNew objective triggering major regulatory reset: We are at a signifi- cant moment in the history of China’s economy and capital markets: after a decade-long journey to eliminate absolute poverty, Beijing is shifting governance priorities from growth to balancing growth and sustainability: social equality, data security, and self-sufficiency. China's new regulations on fintech, big tech, after-school tutoring, cryptocurrency, and carbon emissions over the past nine months underpin this major regulatory reset.\nEconomic implications: Under the new governance paradigm, China appears to be attempting to check the rise in corporate power and rebalance the share of the economy in favor of labor, which could result in decline in corporate profit share. We see regulatory head- winds for sectors associated with rising tensions of social inequality, environmental sustainability, and data security risks, while the new framework provides policy support to advanced manufacturing, tech localization, and renewable energy. We remain watchful of the risk of over-regulation, or, in contrast, resumption of offshore (Hong Kong) IPOs for tech companies, clarity over employment benefits and other issues concerning platform companies, progress on audit access dis- pute resolution, and clearer guidance from top policymakers to curb spillover effects of regulation changes.\nInvestment implications: We expect a longer and more profound impact from the current regulatory cycle on China's equity market valuations and Equity Risk Premium (ERP) than has occurred in sim- ilar past cycles, as it is affecting a more substantial proportion of the market than previously and, in particular, the Internet sector, which accounts for ~40% of MSCI China by index weight. There is a substan- tial degree of uncertainty over what this means both for future net income margins and revenue growth for the affected sectors and stocks.\nOur current base case forward P/E target for MSCI China of 13.0x implies MSCI China would trade on a mid-single-digit percentage val- uation discount to MSCI EM ex China for a sustained period of time. Over time we expect the MSCI China universe to gradually have a more balanced sector allocation with a reduced weight for Internet and a higher weight for sectors like Industrials and IT.\nChallenges and opportunities by segment/theme: Data-heavy tech and platform companies and property could remain under pressure amid the regulatory reset, while semi localization, cybersecurity, domestic brands catering to the mass market, innovative drugs, bio- tech, and green economy may enjoy support.\n5 Key Charts at a Glance\nA shift from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability...Challenges and opportunities by segment/themeUnderstanding China's Regulatory Reset\nNew era, new objective...\nWe believe the recent regulatory tightening reflects a shift in China's governance priorities from \"growth first\" to balancing growth and sustainability – i.e., security, self-sufficiency, and social equality. In the last decade Beijing said its key goal was to double per capita income and eliminate absolute poverty (President Xi’s inaugural speech in Nov. 2012), i.e., giving highest priority to growth. However, this \"pro-growth\" strategy also led to higher inequality and social problems due to lack of regulations on emerging sectors, pointing to the importance of \"pro-poor\" measures as a complement (see World Bank (2004): Pro-growth, pro-poor: Is there a tradeoff?). Now, the government is emphasizing “getting rich together” (common prosperity) as the new objective for the next stage of development in the midst of the CCP's 100-year anniversary, and aims to \"prevent the unbridled expansion of capital\" by intro- ducing a range of KPIs besides economic growth, which covers social equality, supply chain self-sufficiency and data security in the face of rising secular risks – income inequality, US-China tensions, and aging demographics.\nReflecting this reorientation, policymakers have intensified regu- lations in the past 9 months over fintech, big tech (anti-trust, data regulation and employee protection), after-school tutoring, crypto- currency, carbon emissions and overseas IPO rules. The anti-trust campaign has mainly targeted the prevention of tech giants from an over-concentration of market power and eroding welfare of smaller businesses and outsourced employees; the fintech regulation serves the purpose of curbing regulatory arbitrage and financial stability risks; and the increased scrutiny over Chinese ADRs and cross-border data flow in July 2021 mainly focuses on reducing risks of security amid lingering geopolitical tensions. Similarly, the recent regulatory changes to after-school tutoring are part of policy efforts to reduce child-raising costs.\nIn short, China is trying to rebalance the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and this may lead to some systematic de-rating in valuations for some sectors. Having said that, policymakers will have to strike a balance, as China's ambition to thrive as an economic super power will require it to ensure con- tinued private sector vitality to spur innovation and further RMB internationalization to attract capital inflows, so as to sustain long- term productivity growth. While the new regulations introduce more requirements on social responsibility and data usage, and might lead to some increase in margin pressures for related enterprises, we think they will not disrupt business models for most sectors (except for after-school tutoring). For instance, the anti-trust law mainly focuses on banning tech-giants from requiring merchants to sign exclusive cooperation pacts, while the government's guidance on enhancing flexible workers' social benefits mainly requires food delivery platforms to pay healthcare and pension coverage for out- sourced employees. Online goods sales have also held up quite well recently despite the tech regulation campaign starting from late last year. Meanwhile, some regulatory changes are supportive for advanced manufacturing, hardware localization, and clean energy supply chain....but history rhymes\nWhile many of the regulations appear long-overdue and make sense (for example on fintech, anti-trust and outsourced labour protec- tion), the pace of changes in last 9 months has caught the market off-guard as a seemingly arbitrary shift in direction.\nWhy has it occurred in such fashion? We have indeed seen this movie many times: China’s regulatory environments have tended to oscillate between relaxed and tight enforcement, especially in emerging sectors. But this has tended to result in an abrupt regula- tory reset. Before the current reversal in regulating big tech, China had a regulation campaign on mining (2006-2009), dairy (2008- 2010), high-end dining and liquor (2013-2014), irrational capital out- flows (2016-17), gaming (2018), and drugs (2018-2019) – most lasting for one to two years. The sharp shifts in regulatory changes have been largely due to the fact that regulations have tended to lag a period of exponential growth in the sector:\n\nRelaxed stage: Local government support, pro-growth men- tality and business interests together contributed to a lag in regulating emerging sectors.\nTight regulation stage: When a problem is looming as evi- denced by public opinion and/or financial stability indicators, the top leadership shifts gears, quickly mobilizes all administra- tive resources to reorientate its policy control and bolster its regulatory capacity.However, the abrupt shifts in policy tend to hurt market confi- dence and would benefit from more clarity: In past regulatory cycles, capital markets usually underperformed at the start, reflecting weaker market sentiment in the face of policy uncertainty, suggesting the need for greater policy communication. Historical patterns suggest that as an initial step to restore private sector confi- dence, minister-level officials attempt to clarify policy goals publicly. But if this communication is insufficient to temper concern and even- tually weakness in private confidence hurts the job market, top-level policymakers tend to step in.\n\nHere we can take 2H18 as an example, when the triple headwinds of deleveraging, regulatory tightening, and US-China trade tensions triggered market concerns about \"state advances, private sector retreats\". By then, while policymakers already shifted to an easing stance in July 2018 with PBoC's targeted RRR cut, followed by the Ministry of Finance's urge to accelerate local govt. bond issuance in August 2018, it did not stop the deterioration in broad credit growth and private sector confidence. In response, China's President con- vened a forum with entrepreneurs in November 2018 to send a clear signal on supporting private firms.\nWe also see a similar pattern emerging from the government in trying to provide clarity in this cycle. For instance, China's Vice Premier spoke at a business forum on July 27, saying that the nation would \"strike a balance between growth and safety, to ensure social fairness and competition, and promote healthy development of the capital market\". According to Bloomberg, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) also told major investment banks on July 28 that the education policies were targeted and not intended to hurt com- panies in other industries. Separately, the government of Zhejiang province (one of China's richest provinces) clarified in mid-July that the “common prosperity initiative” does not mean \"absolute equal\". We will be watchful on the potential impact of intensified regulations on private sector confidence, and see if the existing government clari- fications are sufficient to restore market sentiment.What is next?\nThe salient shift of governance priorities from “growth first” to bal- anced growth and sustainability means that sectoral regulations will likely continue to be realigned with the broader goals of social equality and national security. We thus see potential new regulation and/or detailed implementation plans in the coming years for sectors associated with the rising tensions of income and wealth inequality, rapid fertility decline, environment, and national security risks amid post-Covid de-globalization.\nThat said, as aforementioned, we think these regulations are more about rebalancing the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation, and would not necessarily view them through the lens of “state vs. private”. Therefore, while we expect regulatory tightening on data-rich tech firms, platform companies, property developers to continue, sectors in-line with China's new economic agenda should continue to get support, such as semiconductor local- ization, cybersecurity software, innovative biotech and pharmaceu- tical companies with well-differentiated drugs, mass consumption/ domestic brands, vocational training, and green economy-related investment. For more equity investment analysis, please refer to\nChina Equity Strategy: Implications for Long-Term Valuation and ROE; Opportunities amid Headwinds & Tailwinds . Understanding China's Regulatory Reset Are there signposts to help us navigate the outlook based on past regulatory changes?\nWhile China’s regulatory changes appear less transparent than western counterparts, we do observe similar cycles marked succes- sively by early warning signs, the formal process of drafting and releasing the regulatory documents, and official remarks signaling the end of the campaigns.\n1. Early warning signs: These include increased social aware- ness/anxiety, public discussions, and meaningful deterioration in major macro level indicators, usually lasting 1-2 years (or possibly longer). For example, the latest crackdown on after- school tutoring followed top leaders’ negative assessment of the sector’s impact on children back in Sep-2018, but rapid growth continued, imposing a significant financial burden on middle income households. The antitrust campaign on tech giants was preceded by years of discussion over the contro- versy from \"pick one from two\" – a practice that came under the spotlight in 2015, which means platforms force merchants to have exclusive partnerships or distribution channels. Meanwhile, prominent macro-level regulatory campaigns include the financial cleanup since 2017 (following the five- year rapid rise in debt-to-GDP ratios) and capacity cuts in 2016-18 (following multiyear PPI deflation that further deep- ened in 2015).2. The start of the formal regulatory cycle: This is usually marked either by approval of draft regulations at high-level government meetings or the release of a publicly accessible version for comment. The final document usually publishes 9-12 months later. For example, the latest regulatory docu- ment on capital market irregularities had been drafted and approved last November. In addition, the government will often release detailed plans for implementation, accompa- nying the original (and usually high-level) guidelines.\n3. Signs of reaching the final stages: For regulatory campaigns that have progressed relatively more smoothly, policymakers usually declare good results in high-level meetings – such as \"decisive progress in the three critical battles against poverty, pollution and financial risk\" at the 2021 NPC. On the other hand, for campaigns that brought about meaningful side effects, policymakers tended to soften their stance by, for example, calling for more market- or law-based implementa- tions (e.g., the latter stage of the supply side reforms). In rare cases when private sentiment was severely undermined on a broad scale, China's top leadership has reaffirmed its policy support with measures such as VAT cuts, lower social insur- ance payment ratio, better funding support, and further reforms and opening up.\nEmergence of new norm following the regulatory shocks: Past experiences suggest that each regulatory wave tends to last for 1-2 years, during the start of which capital markets usually underper- formed amid rising risk premiums, but eventually the real economy and capital market adjusted to the new policy framework. As we argued above, most of the ongoing regulation (except for after- school tutoring) mainly focuses on striking a balance between the rise in corporate power and the share of labor compensation rather than aiming to revamp or terminate prevailing business models. In this sense, we believe the key signposts for an end to the current tech regulatory cycle could include:\n1. A resumption of offshore IPOs by Chinese firms within less data-sensitive sub-sectors,\n2. A systematic improvement in key digital platforms’ social ben- efit packages for flexible workers, and\n3. Major fintech companies getting the greenlight for IPOs after fully complying with regulatory requirements.\nKey policy risks to watch\nWe think the key risks lie mainly in China's endogenous growth momentum and external funding. First, while our base case assumes that policymakers can strike a balance between regulation and pri- vate sector vitality under the new policy framework, an inherent tendency to over-regulate could stifle private sector confidence and innovation. Second, a lack of sufficient communication and coordina- tion would not only disrupt business operations, but could also dis- courage foreign investment amid additional informational and cultural barriers. These could slow the pace of capital formation and undermine overall productivity growth in the economy.\nAlthough some short-term pain arising from overdue regulation that follows a prolonged period of unregulated growth is inevitable, we see ways of mitigating the policy overhang.\n1. A more anticipatory regulation framework and forward guid- ance for emerging industries could offer greater visibility and transparency, giving businesses sufficient time to adjust.\n2. On policy coordination, regulatory policies would benefit from being pursued in an integrated manner in order to reduce trade-offs and maximize synergies. For example, it might be true that technology in the data era could boost growth, but it could also worsen income inequality, given its effect of favouring capital over labour and favouring skilled over unskilled labour. However, policymakers could narrow income disparities and help to defuse potential negative social impact by accelerating the urbanization 2.0 strategy and increasing fiscal transfers to optimize the social protection network.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174519436,"gmtCreate":1627109938425,"gmtModify":1703484431850,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/174519436","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192458370?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&amp;P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&amp;P is up at least &gt;10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&amp;P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&amp;P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = &gt;$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = &gt;$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = &gt;$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds &gt; Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&amp;P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day&nbsp; ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$&nbsp; 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day&nbsp; ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$&nbsp; 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&amp;P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day  ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$  8bln/day SHOP\n$  8bln/day GOOG\n$  8bln/day NFLX\n$  7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$  4bln/day AMC\n$  2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day  ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$  6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175613341,"gmtCreate":1627028208983,"gmtModify":1703482737880,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175613341","repostId":"1112567098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112567098","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627048219,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112567098?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 21:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112567098","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China consider","content":"<p>(July 23)&nbsp;Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading.&nbsp;Bloomberg&nbsp;report&nbsp;that,&nbsp;China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b057d861059cc83420bcf9edf2a465\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>China is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.</p>\n<p>In rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the people said.</p>\n<p>Local regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.</p>\n<p>The new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</p>\n<p>“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”</p>\n<p>New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.</p>\n<p>Beijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.</p>\n<p>Making the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”</p>\n<p>Education technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.</p>\n<p>Beijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.</p>\n<p>Last month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.</p>\n<p>Several high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.</p>\n<p>Shares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Gaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-23 21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 23)&nbsp;Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading.&nbsp;Bloomberg&nbsp;report&nbsp;that,&nbsp;China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b057d861059cc83420bcf9edf2a465\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>China is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.</p>\n<p>In rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the people said.</p>\n<p>Local regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.</p>\n<p>The new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</p>\n<p>“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”</p>\n<p>New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.</p>\n<p>Beijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.</p>\n<p>Making the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”</p>\n<p>Education technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.</p>\n<p>Beijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.</p>\n<p>Last month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.</p>\n<p>Several high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.</p>\n<p>Shares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Gaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112567098","content_text":"(July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.\n\nChina is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.\nIn rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, one of the people said.\nLocal regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.\nThe new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.\n“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”\nNew Oriental Education & Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.\nBeijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.\nMaking the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”\nEducation technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.\nBeijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.\nLast month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.\nSeveral high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.\nShares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.\nGaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803312267,"gmtCreate":1627416472559,"gmtModify":1703489450239,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"...","listText":"...","text":"...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803312267","repostId":"1151272378","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144186180,"gmtCreate":1626271761940,"gmtModify":1703756828166,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144186180","repostId":"1144812338","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144812338","pubTimestamp":1626134605,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1144812338?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-13 08:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed's Complete Taper Timeline","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144812338","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Commenting on the Fed's recent communications debacle, Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer writ","content":"<p>Commenting on the Fed's recent communications debacle, Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer writes that the Fed was getting high marks for its communication \"up until the last meeting where the message got jumbled.\" Specifically, in light of the stunned market reaction following the last meeting, many commentators declared that the Fed had abandoned Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), which Meyer strongly disagree with, conceding that while a growing number of Fed officials have become uncomfortable with rising inflation and are looking to remove accommodation faster, the reality is that Chair Powell and the majority of the Committee have not given up on FAIT. Indeed, Meyer notes, \"the gut reaction of the markets pulling forward rates hikes to 4Q 22 following the last meeting proved fleeting as the market has subsequently pushed out the first hike back to 1Q23.\"</p>\n<p>To help navigate the Fed's communication error, Meyer provides a guide for understanding the Fed’s (latest) reaction function and communication.</p>\n<p><b>First, the Taper</b></p>\n<p>Here Chair Powell has been crystal clear: the Fed will slowly guide the markets toward the taper. BofA shows the taper timeline in the chart below, with its expectations overlaid.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d762173d94ce966d288af0927ed478c\" tg-width=\"1205\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>While Meyer concedes that it is possible for the Fed to signal tapering at the upcoming meeting in July, the BofA economist remain doubtful.<b>The reason to wait is that the market isn’t pricing in the announcement at this meeting, and the Fed wouldn’t want to risk surprising the market.</b>In the last meeting, Powell stated that taper was still “a ways away”. But on the other hand, they have been providing hints that an earlier move is possible, and the surprise will be minimal. Financial conditions are also very accommodative with yields significantly lower making it less painful if rates reset higher upon a taper announcement. Combining these two, BofA thinks it is much more likely that they signal in September.</p>\n<p>There is also a risk of the Fed pulling forward the actual taper from BofA's current forecast of January to perhaps December or even November.<b>This depends on how much quantitative guidance the Fed offers along with the taper signal.</b>According to Meyer, if the Fed is clear that they want to see a certain amount of job creation in order to taper - such as a range for the employment-to-population ratio or progress on the jobs deficit - it will be easier to wait to execute taper. Another option would be to offer calendar guidance but this seems to run counter to Powell’s desire for policy to be “outcome based” rather than “outlook based.” If the Fed keeps the language vague arguing for “substantial further progress”, it seems to leave options open.</p>\n<p><b>What about hikes</b></p>\n<p>The Fed laid out the criteria to hike rates as three-fold:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>inflation needs to reach 2% and stay there for a year;</b></li>\n <li><b>conditions be met to believe that inflation can run moderately above 2% allowing for the overshoot to offset the undershoot;</b></li>\n <li><b>maximum employment to be met with broad-based labor market recovery.</b></li>\n</ol>\n<p>The first has been satisfied. We are on the way to meeting the second, although doubts remain - especially among the FOMC - given the potential transitory nature of inflation. The third criteria hasn’t been satisfied and also a likely needed for the second to be met.</p>\n<p>The challenge, as Meyer explains, with declaring victory on the inflation overshoot is that we are vulnerable to inflation falling back below the target – at least temporarily – next year. For simplicity, let’s focus on the biggest source of transitory inflation: vehicles (defined here as used cars and trucks, rental cars and new vehicles). This makes up around 5% of core PCE. Over the last two months, about 40bp of the 1.2% gain in core PCE owed to these categories. To put this into perspective, if these categories were unchanged, core PCE would have been 0.48% mom in April (2.9% yoy) and 0.31% in May (3.0% yoy). For illustrative purposes, BofA also ran scenarios for %yoy core PCE inflation through next year based on the following paths for car prices: full mean reversion to preCOVID levels, 50% reversal and 25% reversal, assuming trend core inflation of 2.0% in all other categories. This would lead to core PCE of 1.3%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, as shown on the chart below.<b>This shows the sensitivity of inflation to a singular volatile category.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4c7e3244a3f667a109b3b32257842ff\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The path toward maximum employment is also uncertain for two reasons:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>it is unclear how much of the decline in the labor force will prove permanent; and</li>\n <li>the Fed has changed the definition of maximum employment.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>For the former, BofA has previously estimated that the vast majority of those that dropped out of the labor force will be able to return with about half of the decline likely directly attributable to the pandemic. However,<b>about 1.2 million reflects earlier retirement which is unlikely reversible.</b>This will make it more challenging to fully recover the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP). Perhaps a work-around is to look for the prime-working age EPOP to<b>return to pre-pandemic levels which can be achieved by March 2022 based on BofA's employment forecasts which currently is looking for a cumulative 5.9mn jobs to be created by 1Q 2022</b>.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f782420c64c9d0bcc2f0472be6c6f43\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The other consideration mentioned by BofA,<b>is that the Fed has changed its definition for maximum employment to be broad-based and \"inclusive.\"</b>This means that the recovery in the EPOP has to be felt throughout the population particularly for the most economically challenged cohort, i.e.,<b>no hikes until there is a surge in black employment</b>. To achieve this, it will require an even tighter labor market where the “fringe” of the labor market is offered greater opportunities. This in particular calls for the prime-age EPOP to exceed pre-pandemic levels, further pushing out when the Fed might declare victory. And since it is the minority workers who have repeatedly stated they will not return to the labor force unless they get far more preferential terms,<b>it is almost as if the Fed has engineered the current reaction function to one where it will continue to ease indefinitely and blame lack of \"recovery\" on black jobs for its refusal to stop the easing, as if injecting $120BN per month will somehow result in more black workers getting hired!</b></p>\n<p><b>The Committee: divided</b></p>\n<p>Last but not least, there is a growing divide on the Committee which complicates forward guidance. As of the June meeting there were 7 FOMC officials who expected hikes to start in 2022. According to BofA,<b>all of these officials are regional Fed Presidents</b>, some of whom have never fully embraced FAIT (below is Bloomberg's assumption of who is who on the dot plot).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d638c3c8a49237058a24159586030dba\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"690\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>And so, with the economy running strong and inflation pressures building – at least on the surface – these Fed officials are getting ready to remove accommodation. As BofA notes, this makes sense....<b>if you are still operating in the old regime:</b>remember that the Fed hiked rates for the first time with core PCE inflation well below target. The view was that it was preferable to slowly normalize policy based on expectations of future inflation and growth to avoid having to hike quickly and destabilize the recovery. Hence the challenge with keeping the new framework “flexible”. BofA believes the “core” of the Committee –<i><b>Powell, Brainard and Clarida</b></i>– are much more influential in setting the course for policy. The Board of Governors and NY Fed President Williams will generally be in agreement. It is this group that is still strongly committed to FAIT with more than a token overshoot of the 2% target, preferring to err on the side of too much rather than too little inflation. Moreover, they might not be as concerned about higher inflation: indeed, the Board staff forecast shows a slower trajectory for inflation based on the latest FOMC minutes. The Committee members’ voices will be heard and can influence the decisions of the FOMC with the force of their arguments. As such, Meyer's advice is to pay more attention to the centrist members of the FOMC – such as Bostic and Harker – whose arguments could resonate with the Board.</p>\n<p><b>Finally, markets, where we have seen a big moves in rates</b></p>\n<p>The bond market has had a significant rally; at 1.30% the 10-year is back to mid-February levels. In fact, the curve has also flattened significantly in a way that typically doesn’t happen until the hiking cycle has started. So what gives? According to BofA's in house rates expert, Mark Cabana, the move is partly technical, driven by investors closing out short positions and trend-following hedge funds exacerbating rate moves. But it could also reflect the market becoming increasingly worried about structurally lower growth and inflation once the cyclical lift fades. It may also be that the market is doubting the Fed’s resolve to overheat the economy and facilitate higher inflation. For what it's worth, Meyer says that while the former is a reasonable argument, she strongly disagrees with the argument that the Fed has already blinked. That's because Powell has been setting the stage for this new framework even before the pandemic - which was a welcome catalyst to implement FAIT - and sees this as a chance to reset monetary policy.</p>\n<p>In short: expect the flood of liquidity to continue for a long, long time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Complete Taper Timeline</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Complete Taper Timeline\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 08:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-complete-taper-timeline><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Commenting on the Fed's recent communications debacle, Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer writes that the Fed was getting high marks for its communication \"up until the last meeting where the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-complete-taper-timeline\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-complete-taper-timeline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144812338","content_text":"Commenting on the Fed's recent communications debacle, Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer writes that the Fed was getting high marks for its communication \"up until the last meeting where the message got jumbled.\" Specifically, in light of the stunned market reaction following the last meeting, many commentators declared that the Fed had abandoned Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT), which Meyer strongly disagree with, conceding that while a growing number of Fed officials have become uncomfortable with rising inflation and are looking to remove accommodation faster, the reality is that Chair Powell and the majority of the Committee have not given up on FAIT. Indeed, Meyer notes, \"the gut reaction of the markets pulling forward rates hikes to 4Q 22 following the last meeting proved fleeting as the market has subsequently pushed out the first hike back to 1Q23.\"\nTo help navigate the Fed's communication error, Meyer provides a guide for understanding the Fed’s (latest) reaction function and communication.\nFirst, the Taper\nHere Chair Powell has been crystal clear: the Fed will slowly guide the markets toward the taper. BofA shows the taper timeline in the chart below, with its expectations overlaid.\n\nWhile Meyer concedes that it is possible for the Fed to signal tapering at the upcoming meeting in July, the BofA economist remain doubtful.The reason to wait is that the market isn’t pricing in the announcement at this meeting, and the Fed wouldn’t want to risk surprising the market.In the last meeting, Powell stated that taper was still “a ways away”. But on the other hand, they have been providing hints that an earlier move is possible, and the surprise will be minimal. Financial conditions are also very accommodative with yields significantly lower making it less painful if rates reset higher upon a taper announcement. Combining these two, BofA thinks it is much more likely that they signal in September.\nThere is also a risk of the Fed pulling forward the actual taper from BofA's current forecast of January to perhaps December or even November.This depends on how much quantitative guidance the Fed offers along with the taper signal.According to Meyer, if the Fed is clear that they want to see a certain amount of job creation in order to taper - such as a range for the employment-to-population ratio or progress on the jobs deficit - it will be easier to wait to execute taper. Another option would be to offer calendar guidance but this seems to run counter to Powell’s desire for policy to be “outcome based” rather than “outlook based.” If the Fed keeps the language vague arguing for “substantial further progress”, it seems to leave options open.\nWhat about hikes\nThe Fed laid out the criteria to hike rates as three-fold:\n\ninflation needs to reach 2% and stay there for a year;\nconditions be met to believe that inflation can run moderately above 2% allowing for the overshoot to offset the undershoot;\nmaximum employment to be met with broad-based labor market recovery.\n\nThe first has been satisfied. We are on the way to meeting the second, although doubts remain - especially among the FOMC - given the potential transitory nature of inflation. The third criteria hasn’t been satisfied and also a likely needed for the second to be met.\nThe challenge, as Meyer explains, with declaring victory on the inflation overshoot is that we are vulnerable to inflation falling back below the target – at least temporarily – next year. For simplicity, let’s focus on the biggest source of transitory inflation: vehicles (defined here as used cars and trucks, rental cars and new vehicles). This makes up around 5% of core PCE. Over the last two months, about 40bp of the 1.2% gain in core PCE owed to these categories. To put this into perspective, if these categories were unchanged, core PCE would have been 0.48% mom in April (2.9% yoy) and 0.31% in May (3.0% yoy). For illustrative purposes, BofA also ran scenarios for %yoy core PCE inflation through next year based on the following paths for car prices: full mean reversion to preCOVID levels, 50% reversal and 25% reversal, assuming trend core inflation of 2.0% in all other categories. This would lead to core PCE of 1.3%, 1.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, as shown on the chart below.This shows the sensitivity of inflation to a singular volatile category.\n\nThe path toward maximum employment is also uncertain for two reasons:\n\nit is unclear how much of the decline in the labor force will prove permanent; and\nthe Fed has changed the definition of maximum employment.\n\nFor the former, BofA has previously estimated that the vast majority of those that dropped out of the labor force will be able to return with about half of the decline likely directly attributable to the pandemic. However,about 1.2 million reflects earlier retirement which is unlikely reversible.This will make it more challenging to fully recover the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP). Perhaps a work-around is to look for the prime-working age EPOP toreturn to pre-pandemic levels which can be achieved by March 2022 based on BofA's employment forecasts which currently is looking for a cumulative 5.9mn jobs to be created by 1Q 2022.\n\nThe other consideration mentioned by BofA,is that the Fed has changed its definition for maximum employment to be broad-based and \"inclusive.\"This means that the recovery in the EPOP has to be felt throughout the population particularly for the most economically challenged cohort, i.e.,no hikes until there is a surge in black employment. To achieve this, it will require an even tighter labor market where the “fringe” of the labor market is offered greater opportunities. This in particular calls for the prime-age EPOP to exceed pre-pandemic levels, further pushing out when the Fed might declare victory. And since it is the minority workers who have repeatedly stated they will not return to the labor force unless they get far more preferential terms,it is almost as if the Fed has engineered the current reaction function to one where it will continue to ease indefinitely and blame lack of \"recovery\" on black jobs for its refusal to stop the easing, as if injecting $120BN per month will somehow result in more black workers getting hired!\nThe Committee: divided\nLast but not least, there is a growing divide on the Committee which complicates forward guidance. As of the June meeting there were 7 FOMC officials who expected hikes to start in 2022. According to BofA,all of these officials are regional Fed Presidents, some of whom have never fully embraced FAIT (below is Bloomberg's assumption of who is who on the dot plot).\n\nAnd so, with the economy running strong and inflation pressures building – at least on the surface – these Fed officials are getting ready to remove accommodation. As BofA notes, this makes sense....if you are still operating in the old regime:remember that the Fed hiked rates for the first time with core PCE inflation well below target. The view was that it was preferable to slowly normalize policy based on expectations of future inflation and growth to avoid having to hike quickly and destabilize the recovery. Hence the challenge with keeping the new framework “flexible”. BofA believes the “core” of the Committee –Powell, Brainard and Clarida– are much more influential in setting the course for policy. The Board of Governors and NY Fed President Williams will generally be in agreement. It is this group that is still strongly committed to FAIT with more than a token overshoot of the 2% target, preferring to err on the side of too much rather than too little inflation. Moreover, they might not be as concerned about higher inflation: indeed, the Board staff forecast shows a slower trajectory for inflation based on the latest FOMC minutes. The Committee members’ voices will be heard and can influence the decisions of the FOMC with the force of their arguments. As such, Meyer's advice is to pay more attention to the centrist members of the FOMC – such as Bostic and Harker – whose arguments could resonate with the Board.\nFinally, markets, where we have seen a big moves in rates\nThe bond market has had a significant rally; at 1.30% the 10-year is back to mid-February levels. In fact, the curve has also flattened significantly in a way that typically doesn’t happen until the hiking cycle has started. So what gives? According to BofA's in house rates expert, Mark Cabana, the move is partly technical, driven by investors closing out short positions and trend-following hedge funds exacerbating rate moves. But it could also reflect the market becoming increasingly worried about structurally lower growth and inflation once the cyclical lift fades. It may also be that the market is doubting the Fed’s resolve to overheat the economy and facilitate higher inflation. For what it's worth, Meyer says that while the former is a reasonable argument, she strongly disagrees with the argument that the Fed has already blinked. That's because Powell has been setting the stage for this new framework even before the pandemic - which was a welcome catalyst to implement FAIT - and sees this as a chance to reset monetary policy.\nIn short: expect the flood of liquidity to continue for a long, long time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145067959,"gmtCreate":1626183793271,"gmtModify":1703755004391,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great read!&nbsp;","listText":"Great read!&nbsp;","text":"Great read!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145067959","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1185154176?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p>\n<p>When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p>\n<p>It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p>\n<p>Here’s why.</p>\n<p>We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p>\n<p><b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p>\n<p>Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p>\n<p>Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p>\n<p>Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p>\n<p>Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p>\n<p>Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p>\n<p>You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p>\n<p>Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p>\n<p><b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p>\n<p><b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p>\n<p>The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p>\n<p>Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p>\n<p>“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p>\n<p>Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p>\n<p><b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p>\n<p>For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p>\n<p>Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p>\n<p><b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p>\n<p>Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p>\n<p><b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p>\n<p>We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p>\n<p>This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p>\n<p>True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p>\n<p><b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p>\n<p>As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p>\n<p><b>Three themes to follow</b></p>\n<p>If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p>\n<p><b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p>\n<p><b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p>\n<p><b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 11:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":351,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159253797,"gmtCreate":1624971790919,"gmtModify":1703849090276,"author":{"id":"3582793651916821","authorId":"3582793651916821","name":"FrazerEr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5dff0eee122679c6bcd7532e992980","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582793651916821","authorIdStr":"3582793651916821"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159253797","repostId":"2146200677","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2146200677","pubTimestamp":1624851120,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2146200677?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable: 4 Surefire Stocks to Buy When It Happens","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2146200677","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A crash or steep correction would be a blessing in disguise, because you'd get to buy these proven winners at a discount.","content":"<p>They're the three words that can ruin an investor's day: stock market crash.</p>\n<p>Although talking about a stock market crash might be considered taboo, the fact is: A crash <i>is</i> on its way. We might not be able to pinpoint when it'll happen, but history is pretty clear that crashes and corrections are inevitable parts of the investing cycle.</p>\n<h2>All signs point to a crash or steep correction in the not-so-distant future</h2>\n<p>As an example, we can look back more than six decades and see that no rebound from a bear-market bottom has ever been this robust or smooth. In the three years following each of the previous eight bear-market bottoms, there were either <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> or two double-digit percentage declines in the benchmark <b>S&amp;P 500</b> (SNPINDEX:^GSPC). In other words, rebounding from a bear market is a process that doesn't result in straight-line moves higher, which is what we've witnessed over the past 15 months.</p>\n<p>If you need more evidence, take a closer look at the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which examines inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years. As of Monday, June 21, its Shiller P/E of 37.5 is 123% higher than the 151-year average. Even more telling, the S&amp;P has subsequently shed at least 20% of its value in the previous four instances where the Shiller P/E has topped 30 and sustained it. In this instance, history is most definitely not on the market's side.</p>\n<p>The use of margin is equally concerning. Market analytics company Yardeni Research notes that margin debt in May 2021 climbed to a new high of almost $862 billion, and is up around 60% from the prior-year period. Over the past 25 years, there have been only three instances where margin debt increased by 60% on a year-over-year basis. In the previous two instances (the dot-com bubble and the Great Recession), the S&amp;P 500 went on to lose around half its value.</p>\n<p>All signs are suggesting that, sooner rather than later, the stock market is going to crash or correct steeply.</p>\n<h2>These surefire stocks can make you rich</h2>\n<p>Though this might be unnerving to some folks, it's also an incredible opportunity. That's because crashes and corrections are usually short-lived events. They also have a perfect track record of eventually being erased by bull market rallies. As long as you're buying high-quality companies and holding on to your investments for the long term, steep declines represent the perfect times to put your money to work in the stock market.</p>\n<p>When the next crash does inevitably arrive, the following four surefire stocks should make investors a lot richer.</p>\n<h2>Alphabet</h2>\n<p>The idea of buying a company that relies heavily on advertising during periods when the U.S. economy could be in recession might sound odd. But let me assure you, <b>Alphabet</b> (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG) is exactly the type of dominant company you'll want to add during periods of heightened volatility.</p>\n<p>Long-term investors buying Alphabet would benefit from two factors. First, recessions and crashes/corrections tend to be short-lived. By comparison, periods of economic expansion usually last multiple years, if not a decade. Alphabet simply bides its time during these short downtrends, then basks in double-digit growth and strong ad-pricing power for its Google internet search platform during long-winded expansions. According to GlobalStats, Google has controlled between 91% and 93% of worldwide internet-search share over the past two years.</p>\n<p>The second reason Alphabet is such a surefire stock to buy during a crash is its innovation. Content-streaming platform YouTube is now <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the three most-visited social sites in the world. Meanwhile, its cloud infrastructure services segment Google Cloud has been consistently growing at close to 50% on a year-over-year basis. Google Cloud will be especially helpful by mid-decade, with the higher margins from infrastructure services helping to catapult Alphabet's operating cash flow.</p>\n<h2>Innovative Industrial Properties</h2>\n<p>Another surefire opportunity can be found with cannabis-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) <b>Innovative Industrial Properties</b> (NYSE:IIPR). Innovative Industrial, or IIP for short, acquires facilities for growing and processing medical marijuana with the purpose of leasing these assets out for long periods of time.</p>\n<p>One of the more obvious benefits of this strategy is that it generates highly predictable cash flow. IIP owned 72 properties spanning 6.6 million square feet of rentable space in 18 states as of the beginning of June. According to the company, 100% of its properties are leased with a weighted-average lease of 16.8 years. It'll likely take less than half this time for the company to receive a complete payback on its $1.6 billion in invested capital. Plus, IIP passes along inflation-based rent hikes annually to its tenants, ensuring a very modest level of organic rental growth.</p>\n<p>What's more, Innovative Industrial is benefiting from federal gridlock on cannabis banking reform. Since marijuana is illegal at the federal level, pot companies have struggled to gain access to basic banking services. IIP resolves this issue with its sale-leaseback program. With this program, IIP acquires properties from multistate operators (MSO) for cash and immediately leases the property it buys back to the seller. This innovative program gives MSOs access to cash, while netting IIP long-term tenants.</p>\n<h2>UnitedHealth Group</h2>\n<p>Healthcare stocks are an incredibly smart place to put your money to work during a crash or steep correction. That's because the healthcare sector is defensive. Since we don't get to choose when we get sick or what ailment(s) we develop, there will always be demand for drugs, devices, and other healthcare services no matter how well or poorly the economy (or stock market) is performing. It's a big reason <b>UnitedHealth Group</b> (NYSE:UNH) is such a winner.</p>\n<p>Here's a little something you might not know: Only a handful of stocks have delivered a positive total return (including dividends paid) in each of the past 12 years since the Great Recession. UnitedHealth Group is one of those 12, and its health-benefits segment is a key reason. Providing health insurance often leads to predictable cash flow and strong premium-pricing power. Even with this pricing power somewhat limited by the Affordable Care Act, UnitedHealth is bringing in more than enough new members that it remains a very profitable segment.</p>\n<p>The other major growth driver for UnitedHealth Group is its healthcare services subsidiary Optum. It provides everything from pharmacy-benefit manager services to data analytics used by hospitals and health-centric organizations. Optum has actually been UnitedHealth's faster-growing operating segment, and it's the better bet to deliver superior long-term operating margins.</p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a></h2>\n<p>A fourth surefire stock you can comfortably buy if a stock market crash or steep correction strikes is <b>salesforce.com</b> (NYSE:CRM), which provides cloud-based customer-relationship management (CRM) software. It's used by consumer-facing businesses to enter customer information, handle product/service issues, manage online marketing campaigns, and even offer predictive sales analysis in real time.</p>\n<p>Through the midpoint of the decade, global CRM revenue is projected to rise annually by a low double-digit percentage. Salesforce, on the other hand, will be growing even faster. CEO Marc Benioff foresees his company increasing its full-year sales from $21.3 billion in its most recent fiscal year to more than $50 billion in five years (fiscal 2026). That's certainly easy to do when his company controls nearly 20% of worldwide CRM revenue as of the first half of 2020, per IDC. That's more than its four closest competitors, <i>combined</i>!</p>\n<p>Salesforce also has a knack for integrating acquisitions and using buyouts as a platform to expand its offerings or cross-sell its solutions. It has a $27.7 billion pending cash-and-stock deal in place to acquire <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WORK\">Slack Technologies</a></b>. Though this deal does open a new revenue channel for Salesforce, it's really all about the new exposure to small and medium-size businesses, as well as the ability to use Slack's platform to cross-sell its CRM solutions.</p>\n<p>In short, Salesforce isn't going to be fazed by a short-term crash or correction, which makes it a smart buy for investors.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable: 4 Surefire Stocks to Buy When It Happens</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Stock Market Crash Is Inevitable: 4 Surefire Stocks to Buy When It Happens\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/26/stock-market-crash-is-inevitable-4-surefire-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>They're the three words that can ruin an investor's day: stock market crash.\nAlthough talking about a stock market crash might be considered taboo, the fact is: A crash is on its way. We might not be ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/26/stock-market-crash-is-inevitable-4-surefire-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","CRM":"赛富时","IIPR":"Innovative Industrial Properties Inc","UNH":"联合健康"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/26/stock-market-crash-is-inevitable-4-surefire-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2146200677","content_text":"They're the three words that can ruin an investor's day: stock market crash.\nAlthough talking about a stock market crash might be considered taboo, the fact is: A crash is on its way. We might not be able to pinpoint when it'll happen, but history is pretty clear that crashes and corrections are inevitable parts of the investing cycle.\nAll signs point to a crash or steep correction in the not-so-distant future\nAs an example, we can look back more than six decades and see that no rebound from a bear-market bottom has ever been this robust or smooth. In the three years following each of the previous eight bear-market bottoms, there were either one or two double-digit percentage declines in the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC). In other words, rebounding from a bear market is a process that doesn't result in straight-line moves higher, which is what we've witnessed over the past 15 months.\nIf you need more evidence, take a closer look at the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which examines inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years. As of Monday, June 21, its Shiller P/E of 37.5 is 123% higher than the 151-year average. Even more telling, the S&P has subsequently shed at least 20% of its value in the previous four instances where the Shiller P/E has topped 30 and sustained it. In this instance, history is most definitely not on the market's side.\nThe use of margin is equally concerning. Market analytics company Yardeni Research notes that margin debt in May 2021 climbed to a new high of almost $862 billion, and is up around 60% from the prior-year period. Over the past 25 years, there have been only three instances where margin debt increased by 60% on a year-over-year basis. In the previous two instances (the dot-com bubble and the Great Recession), the S&P 500 went on to lose around half its value.\nAll signs are suggesting that, sooner rather than later, the stock market is going to crash or correct steeply.\nThese surefire stocks can make you rich\nThough this might be unnerving to some folks, it's also an incredible opportunity. That's because crashes and corrections are usually short-lived events. They also have a perfect track record of eventually being erased by bull market rallies. As long as you're buying high-quality companies and holding on to your investments for the long term, steep declines represent the perfect times to put your money to work in the stock market.\nWhen the next crash does inevitably arrive, the following four surefire stocks should make investors a lot richer.\nAlphabet\nThe idea of buying a company that relies heavily on advertising during periods when the U.S. economy could be in recession might sound odd. But let me assure you, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG) is exactly the type of dominant company you'll want to add during periods of heightened volatility.\nLong-term investors buying Alphabet would benefit from two factors. First, recessions and crashes/corrections tend to be short-lived. By comparison, periods of economic expansion usually last multiple years, if not a decade. Alphabet simply bides its time during these short downtrends, then basks in double-digit growth and strong ad-pricing power for its Google internet search platform during long-winded expansions. According to GlobalStats, Google has controlled between 91% and 93% of worldwide internet-search share over the past two years.\nThe second reason Alphabet is such a surefire stock to buy during a crash is its innovation. Content-streaming platform YouTube is now one of the three most-visited social sites in the world. Meanwhile, its cloud infrastructure services segment Google Cloud has been consistently growing at close to 50% on a year-over-year basis. Google Cloud will be especially helpful by mid-decade, with the higher margins from infrastructure services helping to catapult Alphabet's operating cash flow.\nInnovative Industrial Properties\nAnother surefire opportunity can be found with cannabis-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE:IIPR). Innovative Industrial, or IIP for short, acquires facilities for growing and processing medical marijuana with the purpose of leasing these assets out for long periods of time.\nOne of the more obvious benefits of this strategy is that it generates highly predictable cash flow. IIP owned 72 properties spanning 6.6 million square feet of rentable space in 18 states as of the beginning of June. According to the company, 100% of its properties are leased with a weighted-average lease of 16.8 years. It'll likely take less than half this time for the company to receive a complete payback on its $1.6 billion in invested capital. Plus, IIP passes along inflation-based rent hikes annually to its tenants, ensuring a very modest level of organic rental growth.\nWhat's more, Innovative Industrial is benefiting from federal gridlock on cannabis banking reform. Since marijuana is illegal at the federal level, pot companies have struggled to gain access to basic banking services. IIP resolves this issue with its sale-leaseback program. With this program, IIP acquires properties from multistate operators (MSO) for cash and immediately leases the property it buys back to the seller. This innovative program gives MSOs access to cash, while netting IIP long-term tenants.\nUnitedHealth Group\nHealthcare stocks are an incredibly smart place to put your money to work during a crash or steep correction. That's because the healthcare sector is defensive. Since we don't get to choose when we get sick or what ailment(s) we develop, there will always be demand for drugs, devices, and other healthcare services no matter how well or poorly the economy (or stock market) is performing. It's a big reason UnitedHealth Group (NYSE:UNH) is such a winner.\nHere's a little something you might not know: Only a handful of stocks have delivered a positive total return (including dividends paid) in each of the past 12 years since the Great Recession. UnitedHealth Group is one of those 12, and its health-benefits segment is a key reason. Providing health insurance often leads to predictable cash flow and strong premium-pricing power. Even with this pricing power somewhat limited by the Affordable Care Act, UnitedHealth is bringing in more than enough new members that it remains a very profitable segment.\nThe other major growth driver for UnitedHealth Group is its healthcare services subsidiary Optum. It provides everything from pharmacy-benefit manager services to data analytics used by hospitals and health-centric organizations. Optum has actually been UnitedHealth's faster-growing operating segment, and it's the better bet to deliver superior long-term operating margins.\nSalesforce\nA fourth surefire stock you can comfortably buy if a stock market crash or steep correction strikes is salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM), which provides cloud-based customer-relationship management (CRM) software. It's used by consumer-facing businesses to enter customer information, handle product/service issues, manage online marketing campaigns, and even offer predictive sales analysis in real time.\nThrough the midpoint of the decade, global CRM revenue is projected to rise annually by a low double-digit percentage. Salesforce, on the other hand, will be growing even faster. CEO Marc Benioff foresees his company increasing its full-year sales from $21.3 billion in its most recent fiscal year to more than $50 billion in five years (fiscal 2026). That's certainly easy to do when his company controls nearly 20% of worldwide CRM revenue as of the first half of 2020, per IDC. That's more than its four closest competitors, combined!\nSalesforce also has a knack for integrating acquisitions and using buyouts as a platform to expand its offerings or cross-sell its solutions. It has a $27.7 billion pending cash-and-stock deal in place to acquire Slack Technologies. Though this deal does open a new revenue channel for Salesforce, it's really all about the new exposure to small and medium-size businesses, as well as the ability to use Slack's platform to cross-sell its CRM solutions.\nIn short, Salesforce isn't going to be fazed by a short-term crash or correction, which makes it a smart buy for investors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}