Yayatrades personal page - To The Moon

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2024-06-21

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

2021-09-23

$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$huatttttt

2021-09-20

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$should buy!

2021-09-20

Good

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2021-09-20

$JD.com(JD)$should buy?

2021-09-17

$Southwest Airlines(LUV)$ should I buy?

2021-09-14

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$when is it going up

2021-09-13

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$buy?

2021-09-03

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$should buy?

2021-09-02

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$sellsell Liao then go up

2021-08-31

Wasted....... Never buy ...

2021-08-30

Upppp

2021-08-24

Up please.........

2021-08-23

Let's go

2021-08-21

Really?

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2021-08-17

????????????????

2021-08-17

???????

JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets

2021-08-17

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@最近满地是坑:$上爲集團(SGOC)$以後，在美股市場裏的一切中文股票，不會再買了！沒底線的品相！

2021-08-16

Huat huat

2021-08-15

Buy or sell

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123297263","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltu","content":"<p>With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&amp;P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.</p>\n<p><u><b>BULL CASE:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Earnings momentum</b>– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus</li>\n <li><b>Accelerating buybacks</b>– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn</li>\n <li><b>Improving COVID environment</b>–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states</li>\n <li><b>More stimulus</b>– the most likely is infrastructure,<b>which could be $550bn or ~$4T</b></li>\n <li><b>China growth reboot</b>– China may decide to add more fiscal &amp; monetary stimulus helping boost RoW</li>\n <li><b>Improved labor markets</b>– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.</li>\n</ol>\n<p><u><b>BEAR CASE:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>COVID expands/mutates</b>– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"<i><b>we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids</b></i>\"</li>\n <li><b>Online schooling</b>– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;</li>\n <li><b>Fed policy mistake</b>– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;</li>\n <li><b>China’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth</b>– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.</li>\n <li><b>Government Shutdown</b>– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30</li>\n</ol>\n<p><u><b>RISKS:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Geopolitics</b>– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;</li>\n <li><b>US Consumer fails to boost the economy</b>– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&amp;A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.</li>\n <li><b>Rates/USD</b>– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,</li>\n <li><b>Financial conditions</b>– could become a headwind, stalling growth.</li>\n</ol>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 17:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123297263","content_text":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.\nBULL CASE:\n\nEarnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus\nAccelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn\nImproving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states\nMore stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T\nChina growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal & monetary stimulus helping boost RoW\nImproved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.\n\nBEAR CASE:\n\nCOVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"\nOnline schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;\nFed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;\nChina’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.\nGovernment Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30\n\nRISKS:\n\nGeopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;\nUS Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.\nRates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,\nFinancial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling 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!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106209e95b068b6605f17d2b00a00f35","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143387589","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121655187,"gmtCreate":1624463123049,"gmtModify":1703837609388,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Should buy nio now?","listText":"Should buy nio now?","text":"Should buy nio now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121655187","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887555151,"gmtCreate":1632074798173,"gmtModify":1676530695577,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887555151","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863208790,"gmtCreate":1632392762910,"gmtModify":1676530771166,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>huatttttt","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>huatttttt","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$huatttttt","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4cea7cd0bec2931aa1267f44a5a28f","width":"720","height":"2040"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863208790","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899601700,"gmtCreate":1628176111000,"gmtModify":1703502675971,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>i sold it this morning at 293 ??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>i sold it this morning at 293 ??","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$i sold it this morning at 293 ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899601700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171102872,"gmtCreate":1626709982796,"gmtModify":1703763862907,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????????","listText":"??????????","text":"??????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171102872","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897554807,"gmtCreate":1628948614109,"gmtModify":1676529898371,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897554807","repostId":"2159321505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159321505","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628911811,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159321505?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159321505","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. ","content":"<p>Board members would serve for two years rather than three</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc701f141f0c0044cabe912e510fe2e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>Tesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.</p>\n<p>One of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s&nbsp;board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.</p>\n<p>If the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the&nbsp;filing.</p>\n<p>The board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.</p>\n<p>Tesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp&nbsp;founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.</p>\n<p>Tesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.</p>\n<p>The two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.</p>\n<p>Tesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&amp;P 500 index.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-14 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES\nTesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159321505","content_text":"Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES\nTesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.\nOne of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.\nIf the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the filing.\nThe board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.\nTesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.\nTesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.\nThe two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.\nTesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&P 500 index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145338963,"gmtCreate":1626189152352,"gmtModify":1703755241433,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$</a>sshoukd I buy to average down?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$</a>sshoukd I buy to average down?","text":"$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$sshoukd I buy to average down?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145338963","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":709,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896414352,"gmtCreate":1628600923676,"gmtModify":1676529792559,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???????????","listText":"???????????","text":"???????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896414352","repostId":"2158691471","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145024172,"gmtCreate":1626184052096,"gmtModify":1703755016937,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$</a>??????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$</a>??????","text":"$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$??????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dbf1dcd3aa338e68c81dcedf6403ce","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145024172","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319042731016408,"gmtCreate":1718902355549,"gmtModify":1718902364254,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4beb31d51fdf51c6662e6ea133a9eec8","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319042731016408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887555849,"gmtCreate":1632074828581,"gmtModify":1676530695570,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>should buy!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>should buy!&nbsp;","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$should buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887555849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815279739,"gmtCreate":1630683774321,"gmtModify":1676530376871,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>should buy?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>should buy?","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$should buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f57dcd113cf35c6ef140a4abda16fd3c","width":"720","height":"1982"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815279739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833992022,"gmtCreate":1629194697266,"gmtModify":1676529961514,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???????","listText":"???????","text":"???????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833992022","repostId":"1123297263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123297263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629192705,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123297263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123297263","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltu","content":"<p>With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&amp;P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.</p>\n<p><u><b>BULL CASE:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Earnings momentum</b>– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus</li>\n <li><b>Accelerating buybacks</b>– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn</li>\n <li><b>Improving COVID environment</b>–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states</li>\n <li><b>More stimulus</b>– the most likely is infrastructure,<b>which could be $550bn or ~$4T</b></li>\n <li><b>China growth reboot</b>– China may decide to add more fiscal &amp; monetary stimulus helping boost RoW</li>\n <li><b>Improved labor markets</b>– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.</li>\n</ol>\n<p><u><b>BEAR CASE:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>COVID expands/mutates</b>– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"<i><b>we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids</b></i>\"</li>\n <li><b>Online schooling</b>– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;</li>\n <li><b>Fed policy mistake</b>– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;</li>\n <li><b>China’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth</b>– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.</li>\n <li><b>Government Shutdown</b>– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30</li>\n</ol>\n<p><u><b>RISKS:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Geopolitics</b>– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;</li>\n <li><b>US Consumer fails to boost the economy</b>– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&amp;A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.</li>\n <li><b>Rates/USD</b>– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,</li>\n <li><b>Financial conditions</b>– could become a headwind, stalling growth.</li>\n</ol>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 17:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123297263","content_text":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.\nBULL CASE:\n\nEarnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus\nAccelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn\nImproving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states\nMore stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T\nChina growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal & monetary stimulus helping boost RoW\nImproved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.\n\nBEAR CASE:\n\nCOVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"\nOnline schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;\nFed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;\nChina’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.\nGovernment Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30\n\nRISKS:\n\nGeopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;\nUS Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.\nRates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,\nFinancial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887555313,"gmtCreate":1632074770032,"gmtModify":1676530695570,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583264330250179","idStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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