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2021-07-27

$Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$HOW??? ????

2021-07-09

$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$go go go !!!

2021-06-23

Should buy nio now?

Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla

2021-09-20

Good

7 ways men live without working in America

2021-09-23

$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$huatttttt

2021-08-05

$Sea Ltd(SE)$i sold it this morning at 293 ??

2021-07-19

??????????

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual

2021-08-14

Nice

Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting

2021-07-13

$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$sshoukd I buy to average down?

2021-08-10

???????????

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-13

$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$??????

06-21

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

2021-09-20

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$should buy!

2021-09-03

$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$should buy?

2021-08-17

???????

JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets

2021-09-20

$JD.com(JD)$should buy?

2021-09-17

$Southwest Airlines(LUV)$ should I buy?

2021-09-14

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$when is it going up

2021-09-13

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$buy?

2021-09-02

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$sellsell Liao then go up

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4beb31d51fdf51c6662e6ea133a9eec8","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319042731016408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863208790,"gmtCreate":1632392762910,"gmtModify":1676530771166,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>huatttttt","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>huatttttt","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$huatttttt","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4cea7cd0bec2931aa1267f44a5a28f","width":"720","height":"2040"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863208790","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887555849,"gmtCreate":1632074828581,"gmtModify":1676530695570,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>should buy!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>should buy!&nbsp;","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$should buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887555849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887555151,"gmtCreate":1632074798173,"gmtModify":1676530695577,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887555151","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198486138","pubTimestamp":1632023224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198486138?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-19 11:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 ways men live without working in America","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198486138","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"How do they live? What are they doing for money? ","content":"<p>Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million people!</p>\n<p>How do they live? What are they doing for money? To me, this is one of the great mysteries of our time.</p>\n<p>I’m certainly not the first person to make note of this shocking statistic. You’ve heard people bemoaning this \"labor participation rate,\" which is simply the number of working-age men (usually counted as ages 16 to 64) not working or not looking for work, as a percentage of the overall labor force.</p>\n<p>It’s true that the pandemic, which of course produced a number of factors that made working more difficult never mind dangerous, pushed the labor participation rate to a record low. But the fact that millions of American males have not been working precedes COVID-19 by decades. In fact, the participation rate for men peaked at 87.4% in October 1949 and has been dropping steadily ever since. It now stands at 67.7%.</p>\n<p>As a business journalist for a good portion of those 70-plus years, I’ve looked at thousands of charts and graphs in my life, and I have to say this one is as jaw dropping as it is vexing:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056158b8fa7157238c3d1521dd05c02e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart of the U.S. labor force participation rate for men over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve</p>\n<p>Economists, sociologists, politicians, and cable news pundits each have their pet factors to explain the groundswell of non-work. But after digging down here, I’ve concluded there are many different forces at play. That’s what I want to explore today, which is: how men can live in America without working.</p>\n<p>I’m not talking about why men have lost their jobs — factories closing, layoffs, automation, outsourcing jobs overseas, even perhaps women entering the workforce, (in fact, the participation rate by women over the same time period is way up). What I want to get at is how they’re living without holding a \"real\" job, and by that I mean doing work where one reports income to the IRS, pays taxes and Social Security, etc.</p>\n<p>It’s important to note that every man in this group has his own story. They range from mentally ill homeless men who desperately need our help, to the I’m-doing-just-fine-thank-you-very-much, retired early, and former Silicon Valley coder. And there are infinite scenarios in between those two extremes, including, for instance, the many men who have chosen to bestay-at-home dadswhile their spouses work.</p>\n<p>It’s also the case that some men in this group may be unemployed and not seeking work because they’ve given up looking just for now — perhaps waiting for COVID to abate — and will start the search again soon. Here too, society needs to help.</p>\n<p>Still, none of this explains decade after decade of falling male employment.</p>\n<p>To that end, here to my mind are seven ways men are living without working in America:</p>\n<p><b>-Unemployment insurance</b></p>\n<p>Let’s start with this one because it’s a hot button issue. Conservatives and some liberals too have made the claim that state unemployment aid, coupled with $600 a week from the CARES Act, which was rolled out in March 2020, have reduced men’s need to work. (There are actually a variety of social programs at play,spelled out nicely hereby think tank The Century Foundation, which estimates that overall these programs have pumped $800 billion in the economy.) We’ll be getting a good read on whether all this relief did suppress employment now that CARES aid ended for some 7.5 million Americans earlier this month. But as Yahoo Finance’s Denitsa Tsekova reportedhereandhere, states that ended federal aid programs early didn’t see big increases in employment. That may mean these payments really weren’t enough to live off, or not enough to live off by themselves, which speaks to men looking to a combination of sources, like under the table income or family support and possibly some savings (see below).</p>\n<p><b>-Early retirement, pensions, disability and lawsuits</b></p>\n<p>Admittedly, this is a bit of a hodgepodge. And as is the case with many of these categories, hard data is tough to come by, but it is the case that millions of men under 64 are at least partly living off of pensions and 401(k)s. This would include everything from C-suite executives to union members. And don’t forget municipal workers, who make up almost 14% of the U.S. workforce. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are some 6,000 public sector retirement systems in the U.S.Collectively these plans have $4.5 trillion in assets,with 14.7 million working members and 11.2 million retirees. The plans distribute $323 billion in benefits annually, and again, some to men who are younger than 64. In fact in almost two-thirds of these plans,if you started working at 25, you max out at 57, a real inducement to stop working — at least at that job of course.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e26b293f8a939a54b78315c3375a18\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Volunteers load cars with turkeys and other food assistance for laid off Walt Disney World cast members and others at a food distribution event on December 12, 2020 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images)More</p>\n<p>There’s also disability insurance from the Social Security Administration that is beingpaid to some 9 million Americanswhomay receive payments many years before retirement age. That's why I am including disability here, but not plain vanilla Social Security, which you can’t receive until age 62. The maximum disability benefit amount you can receive each month is currently $3,148. (However, the average beneficiary receives about $1,277 per month, according to the law group Social Security Disability Advocates.) Overall, it looks like theSSA pays out some $130 billion in disability annually.That’s not nothing. Then there’s money paid out in medical malpractice each year, smaller true, but stillestimated to be in excess of $3 billion.And don't forgetpayments from legal settlements and class action lawsuits.</p>\n<p>You argue all day about the right or wrong when it comes to these payouts, but the fact is many of them didn’t exist, or not at this magnitude, decades ago.</p>\n<p><b>-Savings, trading stocks, and bitcoin</b></p>\n<p>Consider now men are living off savings, or from money made in the market or maybe even selling NFTs. How many is it exactly? Who knows, but quite a few for sure. First off, Americans on average do have some money in the bank. Savings as a percentage of disposable income,according to the Federal Reserve of Kansas City,hit a record high of 33% in the spring of 2020 and is still at 14%, or nearly twice as high as it was prior to the pandemic.</p>\n<p>And according to arecent survey by Northwestern Mutual,average personal savings are up over 10% compared to last year, from $65,900 last year to $73,100. Average retirement savings increased 13%, from $87,500 last year to $98,800 today. So there’s that.</p>\n<p>Next let’s look at investing — first stocks. It is not irrelevant to this narrative that the S&amp;P 500 has climbed from 2,480 on March 12, 2020 — the day after the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic— to 4,441 today, or almost 80%. That’s a huge gain. Much of the action of course has been retail investors and the meme stock boom, as millions of American males stuck at home with nothing to do all day for the past 18 months passed the time trading stocks. Credit Suisse estimates that since the beginning of 2020, “retail trading as a share of overall market activityhas nearly doubledfrom between 15% and 18% to over 30%,” as CNBC reported. How many men were doing this and supporting themselves? Unclear, but upstart trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) — the broker dealer of choice for many of these new investors — reported that it had22.5 million funded user accountslast month, up from 7.2 million in March of 2020. Let’s just say 15 million new accounts is quite a number.</p>\n<p>Now crypto. You can laugh all you want, but the simple fact is that theprice of bitcoinis up from $4,861 on March 12, 2000 to $47,763 today, or basically up 10X, (and remember it even hit $64,888.99 this spring). Back to Robinhood, which according to The New York Times, also reported last month that “revenue from cryptocurrency trading fees totaled $233 million, a nearly 50-fold jump from $5 million a year earlier.” (And those are just fees off the trades, mind you.) Bottom line: Folks have made money here. (Of course these guys should be paying taxes on all those stock and crypto gains.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809084435ffdcbc0695311d158bb7a98\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Robinhood Markets, Inc. CEO and co-founder Vlad Tenev and co-founder Baiju Bhatt pose with Robinhood signage on Wall Street after the company's IPO in New York City, U.S., July 29, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly<b>-Working for cash, aka the under-the-table economy</b></p>\n<p>This one is very tough to measure, too.A study by the Federal Reserve of St. Louisestimates that the average size of the “informal economy” in developed countries is 13% of GDP. Honestly, that could be off by many percentage points, but just to give you a ballpark, GDP in the U.S. this year is about $22 trillion. So 13% of that is $2.86 trillion. As it turns out, $2 trillion-plus, is a number that has been thrown around quite a bit (hereandherefor instance) when it comes to estimating the size of the cash economy in the U.S. Even if half that money is paid out to women, that still leaves, say, $1 trillion dollars being made by men in this country off the books. That’s a big chunk of change. Are more people than ever working for cash these days? Again, another question that’s impossible to answer. I would bet it’s not fewer. For example, my electrician Luis just told me he can’t get anyone to work for him anymore — they all want to get paid in cash.</p>\n<p><b>-Living off family members</b></p>\n<p>Just to take one facet,the Pew Research Center reportedlast year that the pandemic “has pushed millions of Americans, especially young adults, to move in with family members. The share of 18- to 29-year-olds living with their parents has become a majority since U.S. coronavirus cases began spreading [in early 2020], surpassing the previous peak during the Great Depression era. In July, 52% of young adults resided with one or both of their parents, up from 47% in February.” How many of these individuals are males living rent free (and sharing food too), which maybe means they don’t have to work? Who knows, but some. Ditto for males who have moved in with in-laws or siblings. And again, many men are choosing to stay home and take care of kids while their spouses work.</p>\n<p><b>-Illegal work</b></p>\n<p>Front and center here is selling illegal drugs. Sadly, business looks to be booming, that is if overdoses are any sort of measure.According to the Washington Post, overdose deaths hit 93,000 last year, up a stunning 30% from 2019. Most of the overdoses were attributed to opioids; heroin, synthetic opioids like OxyContin and in particular Fentanyl. (This despite drug dealers facingsupply chain issuesduring COVID.) How many Americans are in this business and who are they? A number is almost impossible to come by here, but as for who they are,a government report on drug trafficking arrestsfrom five years ago notes that ”the majority of drug trafficking offenders were male (84.9%), the average age of these offenders at sentencing was 36 years, 70% were United States citizens (although this rate varied substantially depending on the type of drug involved), and that almost half (49.4%) of drug traffickers had little or no prior criminal history.” How big a business is selling drugs in America? Could beas much as $100 billion.I think it’s fair to say that a market that size requires many thousands of employees.</p>\n<p>What about other types of crime and criminals, everything from robbers and thieves to prostitutes and pimps? To that point there aresome 2 million people incarcerated in the U.S.right now. (We have the highest absolute number and the highest per capita on the planet, and holdsome 25% of the world's total prisoners, according to the ACLU.) Being in prison is another way of living in America without working, I guess. But not counting those locked up, how many bad guys are out there on the street? Conservatively, it has to be thousands and thousands, and speaking to this story, they're all doing their thing and not participating in the labor force.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f8f4b3e6a5aa97a10f5c7bb22dec1d7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ORLEANS, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 10: A man holds onto a clamming rake while clamming at low tide July 10, 2021 in Town Cove, Orleans, Massachusetts. He filled a bushel basket of cherry stone clams. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)More<b>-Living off the land</b></p>\n<p>This would include gardening, fishing, hunting, clamming, berrying, and just general foraging. The numbers here seem to be climbing. Here for instancefrom The Guardian:</p>\n<p>“Fishing and huntinglicense sales increased 10%in California during the pandemic, reversing years of decline. Clamming has grown in popularity for several reasons: people are looking for safe activities to do outdoors, but also some are clamming for subsistence and trying to get money from selling the shellfish (which is illegal without a commercial license).”</p>\n<p>Ditto for Washington state, according to The Spokesman-Review:</p>\n<p>“From the start of the 2020 licensing year in May through Dec. 31, WDFW [Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife] sold nearly 45,000 more fishing licenses and 12,000 more hunting licenses than 2019. The number of new license holders — defined as someone who hadn’t purchased one for the previous five years — went up 16% for fishing licenses and almost 40% for hunters.”</p>\n<p>As for growing vegetables in home gardens, yes, it is up, way up too. Even before the pandemic, there were estimates thata third of American families grew vegetables.Now this,NPRreported last year:</p>\n<p>“‘We're being flooded with vegetable orders,’ says George Ball, executive chairman of the Burpee Seed Company, based in Warminster, Penn.</p>\n<p>Ball says he has noticed spikes in seed sales during bad times: the stock market crash of 1987, the dot com bubble burst of 2000, and he remembers the two oil crises of the 1970s from his childhood. But he says he has not seen a spike this large and widespread.</p>\n<p>So there you have it. It’s a whole range of ways and means, behaviors and experiences. I’m sure I missed some, too. Again, some non-working men are in dire straits and need our help. Others are living non-working lives without burdening society or others, such as a fireman on early retirement (though some argue municipal employee pensions are too high), or an investor who made a ton of money in the market and called it quits, or maybe a wilderness guy living off the land in Alaska.</p>\n<p>And some non-working men are not playing fair. Like getting paid under the table, fudging insurance claims or social programs. Some freeload off relatives. And some engage in overtly illegal behavior like boosting branded goods from chain stores to sell online or dealing heroin.</p>\n<p>I would imagine that more than a few of these men create a portfolio of sources, though I’m not sure they really think of it that way. Take for example a hypothetical guy in a rural area who lives with his grandmother rent free, (he does help her with the garden some). This guy also does some cash carpentry work, hunts for game, gets some food off his ex-wife’s WIC and helps his brother sell some weed. Can you get by this way? Some men probably are. Is this the new American way? For some men it probably is.</p>\n<p>That example perhaps, and to be sure of all of the above, I think go a long way toward explaining that chart from the beginning of the story, the one that shows the labor participation rate falling off a cliff over the past seven decades. And speaking of charts, another striking one came to mind when I was writing this, which I put here below. It shows U.S. GDP over the same time period as the labor participation rate.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f197be5c6c11483ec906a1757293e4d\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve</p>\n<p>Of course, the line on this GDP chart is inversely correlated with the line on the labor participation graph. And I think there is a relationship between the two. Which is to say, the wealthier our nation has become over the decades, the less men are working. Fact is there is just a ton of money sloshing around in our country. And men seem to be able to get their hands on it, whether obtained legally, borrowed, leached off of or stolen.</p>\n<p>It seems like working legally to provide for yourself in America is really just one option these days.</p>\n<p><b><i>This article was featured in a Saturday edition of the Morning Brief on September 18, 2021. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET.Subscribe</i></b></p>\n<p><i>Andy Serwer is editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter:@serwer</i></p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 ways men live without working in America</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 ways men live without working in America\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-19 11:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020219c8820f9fc9f11979454ce1b1c6","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198486138","content_text":"Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million people!\nHow do they live? What are they doing for money? To me, this is one of the great mysteries of our time.\nI’m certainly not the first person to make note of this shocking statistic. You’ve heard people bemoaning this \"labor participation rate,\" which is simply the number of working-age men (usually counted as ages 16 to 64) not working or not looking for work, as a percentage of the overall labor force.\nIt’s true that the pandemic, which of course produced a number of factors that made working more difficult never mind dangerous, pushed the labor participation rate to a record low. But the fact that millions of American males have not been working precedes COVID-19 by decades. In fact, the participation rate for men peaked at 87.4% in October 1949 and has been dropping steadily ever since. It now stands at 67.7%.\nAs a business journalist for a good portion of those 70-plus years, I’ve looked at thousands of charts and graphs in my life, and I have to say this one is as jaw dropping as it is vexing:\nChart of the U.S. labor force participation rate for men over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve\nEconomists, sociologists, politicians, and cable news pundits each have their pet factors to explain the groundswell of non-work. But after digging down here, I’ve concluded there are many different forces at play. That’s what I want to explore today, which is: how men can live in America without working.\nI’m not talking about why men have lost their jobs — factories closing, layoffs, automation, outsourcing jobs overseas, even perhaps women entering the workforce, (in fact, the participation rate by women over the same time period is way up). What I want to get at is how they’re living without holding a \"real\" job, and by that I mean doing work where one reports income to the IRS, pays taxes and Social Security, etc.\nIt’s important to note that every man in this group has his own story. They range from mentally ill homeless men who desperately need our help, to the I’m-doing-just-fine-thank-you-very-much, retired early, and former Silicon Valley coder. And there are infinite scenarios in between those two extremes, including, for instance, the many men who have chosen to bestay-at-home dadswhile their spouses work.\nIt’s also the case that some men in this group may be unemployed and not seeking work because they’ve given up looking just for now — perhaps waiting for COVID to abate — and will start the search again soon. Here too, society needs to help.\nStill, none of this explains decade after decade of falling male employment.\nTo that end, here to my mind are seven ways men are living without working in America:\n-Unemployment insurance\nLet’s start with this one because it’s a hot button issue. Conservatives and some liberals too have made the claim that state unemployment aid, coupled with $600 a week from the CARES Act, which was rolled out in March 2020, have reduced men’s need to work. (There are actually a variety of social programs at play,spelled out nicely hereby think tank The Century Foundation, which estimates that overall these programs have pumped $800 billion in the economy.) We’ll be getting a good read on whether all this relief did suppress employment now that CARES aid ended for some 7.5 million Americans earlier this month. But as Yahoo Finance’s Denitsa Tsekova reportedhereandhere, states that ended federal aid programs early didn’t see big increases in employment. That may mean these payments really weren’t enough to live off, or not enough to live off by themselves, which speaks to men looking to a combination of sources, like under the table income or family support and possibly some savings (see below).\n-Early retirement, pensions, disability and lawsuits\nAdmittedly, this is a bit of a hodgepodge. And as is the case with many of these categories, hard data is tough to come by, but it is the case that millions of men under 64 are at least partly living off of pensions and 401(k)s. This would include everything from C-suite executives to union members. And don’t forget municipal workers, who make up almost 14% of the U.S. workforce. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are some 6,000 public sector retirement systems in the U.S.Collectively these plans have $4.5 trillion in assets,with 14.7 million working members and 11.2 million retirees. The plans distribute $323 billion in benefits annually, and again, some to men who are younger than 64. In fact in almost two-thirds of these plans,if you started working at 25, you max out at 57, a real inducement to stop working — at least at that job of course.\nVolunteers load cars with turkeys and other food assistance for laid off Walt Disney World cast members and others at a food distribution event on December 12, 2020 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images)More\nThere’s also disability insurance from the Social Security Administration that is beingpaid to some 9 million Americanswhomay receive payments many years before retirement age. That's why I am including disability here, but not plain vanilla Social Security, which you can’t receive until age 62. The maximum disability benefit amount you can receive each month is currently $3,148. (However, the average beneficiary receives about $1,277 per month, according to the law group Social Security Disability Advocates.) Overall, it looks like theSSA pays out some $130 billion in disability annually.That’s not nothing. Then there’s money paid out in medical malpractice each year, smaller true, but stillestimated to be in excess of $3 billion.And don't forgetpayments from legal settlements and class action lawsuits.\nYou argue all day about the right or wrong when it comes to these payouts, but the fact is many of them didn’t exist, or not at this magnitude, decades ago.\n-Savings, trading stocks, and bitcoin\nConsider now men are living off savings, or from money made in the market or maybe even selling NFTs. How many is it exactly? Who knows, but quite a few for sure. First off, Americans on average do have some money in the bank. Savings as a percentage of disposable income,according to the Federal Reserve of Kansas City,hit a record high of 33% in the spring of 2020 and is still at 14%, or nearly twice as high as it was prior to the pandemic.\nAnd according to arecent survey by Northwestern Mutual,average personal savings are up over 10% compared to last year, from $65,900 last year to $73,100. Average retirement savings increased 13%, from $87,500 last year to $98,800 today. So there’s that.\nNext let’s look at investing — first stocks. It is not irrelevant to this narrative that the S&P 500 has climbed from 2,480 on March 12, 2020 — the day after the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic— to 4,441 today, or almost 80%. That’s a huge gain. Much of the action of course has been retail investors and the meme stock boom, as millions of American males stuck at home with nothing to do all day for the past 18 months passed the time trading stocks. Credit Suisse estimates that since the beginning of 2020, “retail trading as a share of overall market activityhas nearly doubledfrom between 15% and 18% to over 30%,” as CNBC reported. How many men were doing this and supporting themselves? Unclear, but upstart trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) — the broker dealer of choice for many of these new investors — reported that it had22.5 million funded user accountslast month, up from 7.2 million in March of 2020. Let’s just say 15 million new accounts is quite a number.\nNow crypto. You can laugh all you want, but the simple fact is that theprice of bitcoinis up from $4,861 on March 12, 2000 to $47,763 today, or basically up 10X, (and remember it even hit $64,888.99 this spring). Back to Robinhood, which according to The New York Times, also reported last month that “revenue from cryptocurrency trading fees totaled $233 million, a nearly 50-fold jump from $5 million a year earlier.” (And those are just fees off the trades, mind you.) Bottom line: Folks have made money here. (Of course these guys should be paying taxes on all those stock and crypto gains.)\nRobinhood Markets, Inc. CEO and co-founder Vlad Tenev and co-founder Baiju Bhatt pose with Robinhood signage on Wall Street after the company's IPO in New York City, U.S., July 29, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly-Working for cash, aka the under-the-table economy\nThis one is very tough to measure, too.A study by the Federal Reserve of St. Louisestimates that the average size of the “informal economy” in developed countries is 13% of GDP. Honestly, that could be off by many percentage points, but just to give you a ballpark, GDP in the U.S. this year is about $22 trillion. So 13% of that is $2.86 trillion. As it turns out, $2 trillion-plus, is a number that has been thrown around quite a bit (hereandherefor instance) when it comes to estimating the size of the cash economy in the U.S. Even if half that money is paid out to women, that still leaves, say, $1 trillion dollars being made by men in this country off the books. That’s a big chunk of change. Are more people than ever working for cash these days? Again, another question that’s impossible to answer. I would bet it’s not fewer. For example, my electrician Luis just told me he can’t get anyone to work for him anymore — they all want to get paid in cash.\n-Living off family members\nJust to take one facet,the Pew Research Center reportedlast year that the pandemic “has pushed millions of Americans, especially young adults, to move in with family members. The share of 18- to 29-year-olds living with their parents has become a majority since U.S. coronavirus cases began spreading [in early 2020], surpassing the previous peak during the Great Depression era. In July, 52% of young adults resided with one or both of their parents, up from 47% in February.” How many of these individuals are males living rent free (and sharing food too), which maybe means they don’t have to work? Who knows, but some. Ditto for males who have moved in with in-laws or siblings. And again, many men are choosing to stay home and take care of kids while their spouses work.\n-Illegal work\nFront and center here is selling illegal drugs. Sadly, business looks to be booming, that is if overdoses are any sort of measure.According to the Washington Post, overdose deaths hit 93,000 last year, up a stunning 30% from 2019. Most of the overdoses were attributed to opioids; heroin, synthetic opioids like OxyContin and in particular Fentanyl. (This despite drug dealers facingsupply chain issuesduring COVID.) How many Americans are in this business and who are they? A number is almost impossible to come by here, but as for who they are,a government report on drug trafficking arrestsfrom five years ago notes that ”the majority of drug trafficking offenders were male (84.9%), the average age of these offenders at sentencing was 36 years, 70% were United States citizens (although this rate varied substantially depending on the type of drug involved), and that almost half (49.4%) of drug traffickers had little or no prior criminal history.” How big a business is selling drugs in America? Could beas much as $100 billion.I think it’s fair to say that a market that size requires many thousands of employees.\nWhat about other types of crime and criminals, everything from robbers and thieves to prostitutes and pimps? To that point there aresome 2 million people incarcerated in the U.S.right now. (We have the highest absolute number and the highest per capita on the planet, and holdsome 25% of the world's total prisoners, according to the ACLU.) Being in prison is another way of living in America without working, I guess. But not counting those locked up, how many bad guys are out there on the street? Conservatively, it has to be thousands and thousands, and speaking to this story, they're all doing their thing and not participating in the labor force.\nORLEANS, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 10: A man holds onto a clamming rake while clamming at low tide July 10, 2021 in Town Cove, Orleans, Massachusetts. He filled a bushel basket of cherry stone clams. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)More-Living off the land\nThis would include gardening, fishing, hunting, clamming, berrying, and just general foraging. The numbers here seem to be climbing. Here for instancefrom The Guardian:\n“Fishing and huntinglicense sales increased 10%in California during the pandemic, reversing years of decline. Clamming has grown in popularity for several reasons: people are looking for safe activities to do outdoors, but also some are clamming for subsistence and trying to get money from selling the shellfish (which is illegal without a commercial license).”\nDitto for Washington state, according to The Spokesman-Review:\n“From the start of the 2020 licensing year in May through Dec. 31, WDFW [Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife] sold nearly 45,000 more fishing licenses and 12,000 more hunting licenses than 2019. The number of new license holders — defined as someone who hadn’t purchased one for the previous five years — went up 16% for fishing licenses and almost 40% for hunters.”\nAs for growing vegetables in home gardens, yes, it is up, way up too. Even before the pandemic, there were estimates thata third of American families grew vegetables.Now this,NPRreported last year:\n“‘We're being flooded with vegetable orders,’ says George Ball, executive chairman of the Burpee Seed Company, based in Warminster, Penn.\nBall says he has noticed spikes in seed sales during bad times: the stock market crash of 1987, the dot com bubble burst of 2000, and he remembers the two oil crises of the 1970s from his childhood. But he says he has not seen a spike this large and widespread.\nSo there you have it. It’s a whole range of ways and means, behaviors and experiences. I’m sure I missed some, too. Again, some non-working men are in dire straits and need our help. Others are living non-working lives without burdening society or others, such as a fireman on early retirement (though some argue municipal employee pensions are too high), or an investor who made a ton of money in the market and called it quits, or maybe a wilderness guy living off the land in Alaska.\nAnd some non-working men are not playing fair. Like getting paid under the table, fudging insurance claims or social programs. Some freeload off relatives. And some engage in overtly illegal behavior like boosting branded goods from chain stores to sell online or dealing heroin.\nI would imagine that more than a few of these men create a portfolio of sources, though I’m not sure they really think of it that way. Take for example a hypothetical guy in a rural area who lives with his grandmother rent free, (he does help her with the garden some). This guy also does some cash carpentry work, hunts for game, gets some food off his ex-wife’s WIC and helps his brother sell some weed. Can you get by this way? Some men probably are. Is this the new American way? For some men it probably is.\nThat example perhaps, and to be sure of all of the above, I think go a long way toward explaining that chart from the beginning of the story, the one that shows the labor participation rate falling off a cliff over the past seven decades. And speaking of charts, another striking one came to mind when I was writing this, which I put here below. It shows U.S. GDP over the same time period as the labor participation rate.\nChart of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve\nOf course, the line on this GDP chart is inversely correlated with the line on the labor participation graph. And I think there is a relationship between the two. Which is to say, the wealthier our nation has become over the decades, the less men are working. Fact is there is just a ton of money sloshing around in our country. And men seem to be able to get their hands on it, whether obtained legally, borrowed, leached off of or stolen.\nIt seems like working legally to provide for yourself in America is really just one option these days.\nThis article was featured in a Saturday edition of the Morning Brief on September 18, 2021. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET.Subscribe\nAndy Serwer is editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. 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buy?","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$should buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f57dcd113cf35c6ef140a4abda16fd3c","width":"720","height":"1982"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815279739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812678171,"gmtCreate":1630587736193,"gmtModify":1676530348062,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>sellsell Liao then go up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>sellsell Liao then go up","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$sellsell Liao then go up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d5e06524daff44bc9318a8dba1f25d","width":"720","height":"2105"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812678171","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818529170,"gmtCreate":1630420281890,"gmtModify":1676530299357,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wasted....... Never buy ...&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;","listText":"Wasted....... Never buy ...&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;","text":"Wasted....... Never buy ...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cec39c68c42f95857aa9ce755467a01","width":"720","height":"1982"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818529170","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811525138,"gmtCreate":1630333014524,"gmtModify":1676530272745,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upppp&nbsp;","listText":"Upppp&nbsp;","text":"Upppp","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e3594b116882bc52d2976e55e71abd6","width":"720","height":"2047"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811525138","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834283377,"gmtCreate":1629806513999,"gmtModify":1676530136805,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up please.........","listText":"Up please.........","text":"Up please.........","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23eae5481dd484fc30f366a438015d4a","width":"720","height":"2040"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/834283377","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835431591,"gmtCreate":1629730629813,"gmtModify":1676530115537,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go","listText":"Let's go","text":"Let's go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3496344cf09d36cba711f1938f4f863","width":"720","height":"1982"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/835431591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836681694,"gmtCreate":1629475880018,"gmtModify":1676530055221,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really?","listText":"Really?","text":"Really?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/836681694","repostId":"2160714914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2160714914","pubTimestamp":1629464330,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160714914?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-20 20:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's What Recent News From the FDA Means for AstraZeneca","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160714914","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Even though AstraZeneca and FibroGen must now conduct an additional safety trial to have a chance at FDA approval, not all is lost.","content":"<p>Last month, the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSII\">Cardiovascular</a> and Renal Drugs Advisory Committee (CRDAC) of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) denied <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\">AstraZeneca PLC</a> </b>(NASDAQ:&nbsp;AZN) and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FGEN\">FibroGen</a></b>'s (NASDAQ:&nbsp;FGEN) drug roxadustat for the treatment of anemia in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).</p>\n<p>This was in both non-dialysis-dependent (NDD) patients (by a 13-to-1 vote) and dialysis-dependent (DD) patients (a 12-to-2 vote).</p>\n<p>AstraZeneca and FibroGen are collaborating to develop and commercialize roxadustat for the treatment of anemia related to CKD in areas including the U.S., Australia and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Zealand, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, FibroGen and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALPMY\">Astellas Pharma, Inc.</a> </b>(OTC:&nbsp;ALPMY) are developing and commercializing roxadustat for the treatment of CKD-related anemia in Japan, Europe, the Middle East, and South Africa.</p>\n<p>AstraZeneca and FibroGen received a complete response letter from the FDA earlier this month, requesting another safety trial for both the NDD and DD patient populations. Let's break down the implications for roxadustat's future, and what that might mean for AstraZeneca.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb06b77b879f31a4dff027154b6d049e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images.</p>\n<h2>The logic behind the panel's decision</h2>\n<p>It's worth discussing what led to this decisive rejection. While FDA staffer Dr. Saleh Ayache noted that \"the FDA believes the Applicant has provided substantial evidence of efficacy,\" CRDAC chair Dr. Julia Lewis indicated that \"there are concerns over adverse safety.\"</p>\n<p>To this point, FibroGen announced in April that the disclosed safety analyses for roxadustat from November 2019 in the treatment of anemia of CKD were incorrect.</p>\n<p>In the original presentation of the study's data, the risk of non-dialysis-dependent (NDD) patients taking roxadustat and experiencing major adverse cardiac events (MACE) over the duration of the Phase 3 trial was 8% higher than for patients taking placebo. The revised data showed a slight increase in that risk, to 10% more than placebo, adding to the overall risk profile of the drug and working against the odds of a potential FDA approval.</p>\n<p>The risk of dialysis-dependent (DD) patients taking roxadustat and suffering from MACE was initially thought to be 4% lower than for those taking peer drug epoetin-alfa (Epogen, developed by <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMGN\">Amgen</a></b> and <b>Johnson and Johnson</b>). However, the revised data showed that the probability of DD patients taking roxadustat and enduring MACE was actually 2% higher than Epogen. This meant that AstraZeneca and FibroGen were no longer able to claim that roxadustat was safer than Epogen in DD patients, which was a claim that previously gave roxadustat an advantage over Epogen.</p>\n<p>The risk of incident dialysis (ID) patients who have been on dialysis for four months or less taking roxadustat and experiencing MACE was initially thought to be 30% lower compared to Epogen, but the corrected data showed that the risk of MACE complications was only reduced by 18%. While roxadustat remains safer than Epogen in ID patients, the advantage is far less than what was thought to be the case initially.</p>\n<p>AstraZeneca and FibroGen will now consider funding an additional clinical trial to continue pursuing FDA approval for roxadustat to treat CKD-related anemia. The trial would test whether a lower dosage of roxadustat would improve its safety profile, possibly allowing FDA approval later down the road assuming efficacy remained steady.</p>\n<h2>Roxadustat is down, but not out</h2>\n<p>Even with CRDAC's request for another clinical trial, there's reason to be optimistic. Roxadustat was approved by China's <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> Medical Products Administration (NMPA) to be marketed for treating anemia in CKD patients, both on dialysis and not on dialysis, in August 2019. And while roxadustat has been on the market in China for less than two years, the drug has made a great deal of progress in the country during that time.</p>\n<p>According to FibroGen, hospital listings (a list or formulary of all the drugs available for prescription from a particular hospital) at the end of the second quarter of 2021 \"represented approximately 81% of the CKD anemia market opportunity in China,\" compared with 74% in the prior quarter. In other words, hospital offerings of the drug in China continue to expand. Roxadustat's continued penetration in the China market generated $92 million in revenue for AstraZeneca during the first half of 2021, with an acceleration from $40 million in Q1 to $52 million in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>.</p>\n<p>Even if AstraZeneca isn't ultimately able to secure FDA approval to treat the 6 million patients in the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> States with anemia related to CKD, the Chinese market alone could be enough to more than double sales of the drug from now till the end of the decade.</p>\n<p>This is supported by a combination of growing adoption of roxadustat within China, as well as the fact that Research and Markets expects the CKD anemia market to grow 3.4% annually, to reach global sales of $6.6 billion by 2029.</p>\n<p>The research company anticipates that the Chinese market alone will reach $1 billion in revenue by 2029, so I can see a clear path to about $400 million by the end of the decade for AstraZeneca.</p>\n<h2>AstraZeneca will be fine regardless of FDA approval</h2>\n<p>While it remains to be seen whether roxadustat will someday be approved by the FDA, AstraZeneca isn't depending on the approval as much as FibroGen.</p>\n<p>This is because unlike FibroGen, which is highly dependent on roxadustat (all of its product revenue came from roxadustat in the first half of this year), AstraZeneca is a diversified large-cap pharma company.</p>\n<p>AstraZeneca owns three rapidly growing oncology drugs (Tagrisso, Imfinzi, and Lynparza), which grew their total first-half revenue 25.3% year over year from $3.79 billion in H1 2020 to $4.75 billion in H1 2021.</p>\n<p>AstraZeneca's completed acquisition of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ALXN\">Alexion Pharmaceuticals</a> last month only further solidified the company's growth potential. That's because Alexion's top three drugs (Soliris, Ultomiris, and Strensiq) saw their net revenue soar 20.4% from $4.88 billion in 2019 to $5.87 billion in 2020.</p>\n<p>AstraZeneca is trading at around 16 times next year's average analyst EPS (earnings per share) estimate of $3.71, which is still a solid value, given the 20% annual earnings growth that analysts expect over the next five years.</p>\n<p>Those who already own AstraZeneca and those considering adding it to their portfolios can both be confident that the company's future is solid regardless of roxadustat's U.S. status.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's What Recent News From the FDA Means for AstraZeneca</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's What Recent News From the FDA Means for AstraZeneca\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-20 20:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/20/heres-what-recent-fda-news-means-for-astrazeneca/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last month, the Cardiovascular and Renal Drugs Advisory Committee (CRDAC) of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) denied AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ: AZN) and FibroGen's (NASDAQ: FGEN) drug ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/20/heres-what-recent-fda-news-means-for-astrazeneca/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ALPMY":"Astellas Pharma, Inc.","AZN":"阿斯利康","FGEN":"FibroGen, Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/20/heres-what-recent-fda-news-means-for-astrazeneca/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160714914","content_text":"Last month, the Cardiovascular and Renal Drugs Advisory Committee (CRDAC) of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) denied AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ: AZN) and FibroGen's (NASDAQ: FGEN) drug roxadustat for the treatment of anemia in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD).\nThis was in both non-dialysis-dependent (NDD) patients (by a 13-to-1 vote) and dialysis-dependent (DD) patients (a 12-to-2 vote).\nAstraZeneca and FibroGen are collaborating to develop and commercialize roxadustat for the treatment of anemia related to CKD in areas including the U.S., Australia and New Zealand, China, and Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, FibroGen and Astellas Pharma, Inc. (OTC: ALPMY) are developing and commercializing roxadustat for the treatment of CKD-related anemia in Japan, Europe, the Middle East, and South Africa.\nAstraZeneca and FibroGen received a complete response letter from the FDA earlier this month, requesting another safety trial for both the NDD and DD patient populations. Let's break down the implications for roxadustat's future, and what that might mean for AstraZeneca.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nThe logic behind the panel's decision\nIt's worth discussing what led to this decisive rejection. While FDA staffer Dr. Saleh Ayache noted that \"the FDA believes the Applicant has provided substantial evidence of efficacy,\" CRDAC chair Dr. Julia Lewis indicated that \"there are concerns over adverse safety.\"\nTo this point, FibroGen announced in April that the disclosed safety analyses for roxadustat from November 2019 in the treatment of anemia of CKD were incorrect.\nIn the original presentation of the study's data, the risk of non-dialysis-dependent (NDD) patients taking roxadustat and experiencing major adverse cardiac events (MACE) over the duration of the Phase 3 trial was 8% higher than for patients taking placebo. The revised data showed a slight increase in that risk, to 10% more than placebo, adding to the overall risk profile of the drug and working against the odds of a potential FDA approval.\nThe risk of dialysis-dependent (DD) patients taking roxadustat and suffering from MACE was initially thought to be 4% lower than for those taking peer drug epoetin-alfa (Epogen, developed by Amgen and Johnson and Johnson). However, the revised data showed that the probability of DD patients taking roxadustat and enduring MACE was actually 2% higher than Epogen. This meant that AstraZeneca and FibroGen were no longer able to claim that roxadustat was safer than Epogen in DD patients, which was a claim that previously gave roxadustat an advantage over Epogen.\nThe risk of incident dialysis (ID) patients who have been on dialysis for four months or less taking roxadustat and experiencing MACE was initially thought to be 30% lower compared to Epogen, but the corrected data showed that the risk of MACE complications was only reduced by 18%. While roxadustat remains safer than Epogen in ID patients, the advantage is far less than what was thought to be the case initially.\nAstraZeneca and FibroGen will now consider funding an additional clinical trial to continue pursuing FDA approval for roxadustat to treat CKD-related anemia. The trial would test whether a lower dosage of roxadustat would improve its safety profile, possibly allowing FDA approval later down the road assuming efficacy remained steady.\nRoxadustat is down, but not out\nEven with CRDAC's request for another clinical trial, there's reason to be optimistic. Roxadustat was approved by China's National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) to be marketed for treating anemia in CKD patients, both on dialysis and not on dialysis, in August 2019. And while roxadustat has been on the market in China for less than two years, the drug has made a great deal of progress in the country during that time.\nAccording to FibroGen, hospital listings (a list or formulary of all the drugs available for prescription from a particular hospital) at the end of the second quarter of 2021 \"represented approximately 81% of the CKD anemia market opportunity in China,\" compared with 74% in the prior quarter. In other words, hospital offerings of the drug in China continue to expand. Roxadustat's continued penetration in the China market generated $92 million in revenue for AstraZeneca during the first half of 2021, with an acceleration from $40 million in Q1 to $52 million in Q2.\nEven if AstraZeneca isn't ultimately able to secure FDA approval to treat the 6 million patients in the United States with anemia related to CKD, the Chinese market alone could be enough to more than double sales of the drug from now till the end of the decade.\nThis is supported by a combination of growing adoption of roxadustat within China, as well as the fact that Research and Markets expects the CKD anemia market to grow 3.4% annually, to reach global sales of $6.6 billion by 2029.\nThe research company anticipates that the Chinese market alone will reach $1 billion in revenue by 2029, so I can see a clear path to about $400 million by the end of the decade for AstraZeneca.\nAstraZeneca will be fine regardless of FDA approval\nWhile it remains to be seen whether roxadustat will someday be approved by the FDA, AstraZeneca isn't depending on the approval as much as FibroGen.\nThis is because unlike FibroGen, which is highly dependent on roxadustat (all of its product revenue came from roxadustat in the first half of this year), AstraZeneca is a diversified large-cap pharma company.\nAstraZeneca owns three rapidly growing oncology drugs (Tagrisso, Imfinzi, and Lynparza), which grew their total first-half revenue 25.3% year over year from $3.79 billion in H1 2020 to $4.75 billion in H1 2021.\nAstraZeneca's completed acquisition of Alexion Pharmaceuticals last month only further solidified the company's growth potential. That's because Alexion's top three drugs (Soliris, Ultomiris, and Strensiq) saw their net revenue soar 20.4% from $4.88 billion in 2019 to $5.87 billion in 2020.\nAstraZeneca is trading at around 16 times next year's average analyst EPS (earnings per share) estimate of $3.71, which is still a solid value, given the 20% annual earnings growth that analysts expect over the next five years.\nThose who already own AstraZeneca and those considering adding it to their portfolios can both be confident that the company's future is solid regardless of roxadustat's U.S. status.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":62,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833992295,"gmtCreate":1629194728117,"gmtModify":1676529961530,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"????????????????","listText":"????????????????","text":"????????????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833992295","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833992022,"gmtCreate":1629194697266,"gmtModify":1676529961514,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???????","listText":"???????","text":"???????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833992022","repostId":"1123297263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123297263","pubTimestamp":1629192705,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123297263?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123297263","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltu","content":"<p>With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&amp;P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.</p>\n<p><u><b>BULL CASE:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Earnings momentum</b>– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus</li>\n <li><b>Accelerating buybacks</b>– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn</li>\n <li><b>Improving COVID environment</b>–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states</li>\n <li><b>More stimulus</b>– the most likely is infrastructure,<b>which could be $550bn or ~$4T</b></li>\n <li><b>China growth reboot</b>– China may decide to add more fiscal &amp; monetary stimulus helping boost RoW</li>\n <li><b>Improved labor markets</b>– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.</li>\n</ol>\n<p><u><b>BEAR CASE:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>COVID expands/mutates</b>– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"<i><b>we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids</b></i>\"</li>\n <li><b>Online schooling</b>– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;</li>\n <li><b>Fed policy mistake</b>– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;</li>\n <li><b>China’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth</b>– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.</li>\n <li><b>Government Shutdown</b>– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30</li>\n</ol>\n<p><u><b>RISKS:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Geopolitics</b>– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;</li>\n <li><b>US Consumer fails to boost the economy</b>– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&amp;A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.</li>\n <li><b>Rates/USD</b>– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,</li>\n <li><b>Financial conditions</b>– could become a headwind, stalling growth.</li>\n</ol>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 17:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123297263","content_text":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.\nBULL CASE:\n\nEarnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus\nAccelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn\nImproving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states\nMore stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T\nChina growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal & monetary stimulus helping boost RoW\nImproved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.\n\nBEAR CASE:\n\nCOVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"\nOnline schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;\nFed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;\nChina’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.\nGovernment Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30\n\nRISKS:\n\nGeopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;\nUS Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.\nRates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,\nFinancial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833998499,"gmtCreate":1629194615111,"gmtModify":1676529961489,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?????????","listText":"?????????","text":"?????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833998499","repostId":"839814590","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":839814590,"gmtCreate":1629142098010,"gmtModify":1676529943221,"author":{"id":"4088972556421510","authorId":"4088972556421510","name":"最近满地是坑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/948c089818d4e7dc735d11b260333f8e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088972556421510","authorIdStr":"4088972556421510"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$上爲集團(SGOC)$</a>以後，在美股市場裏的一切中文股票，不會再買了！沒底線的品相！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$上爲集團(SGOC)$</a>以後，在美股市場裏的一切中文股票，不會再買了！沒底線的品相！","text":"$上爲集團(SGOC)$以後，在美股市場裏的一切中文股票，不會再買了！沒底線的品相！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839814590","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839169448,"gmtCreate":1629127199784,"gmtModify":1676529940844,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat huat&nbsp;","listText":"Huat huat&nbsp;","text":"Huat huat","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0417e0bfab27877753e76c1e40bebd1b","width":"720","height":"2047"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839169448","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897733183,"gmtCreate":1628985374042,"gmtModify":1676529902191,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy or sell","listText":"Buy or sell","text":"Buy or sell","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c6491d3a5f448540c9e341e2b2f47da","width":"720","height":"2105"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897733183","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":809270591,"gmtCreate":1627375090513,"gmtModify":1703488668700,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$</a>HOW??? ????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$</a>HOW??? ????","text":"$Pinduoduo Inc.(PDD)$HOW??? ????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f62d4df8513b2735689ea8c16cecd7fa","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809270591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143387589,"gmtCreate":1625761260841,"gmtModify":1703748143931,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>go go go !!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XELA\">$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$</a>go go go !!!","text":"$Exela Technologies, Inc.(XELA)$go go go !!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/106209e95b068b6605f17d2b00a00f35","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/143387589","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121655187,"gmtCreate":1624463123049,"gmtModify":1703837609388,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Should buy nio now?","listText":"Should buy nio now?","text":"Should buy nio now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121655187","repostId":"1145825451","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145825451","pubTimestamp":1624433586,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145825451?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 15:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145825451","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.Super fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc. model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.The go","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Super fans of the latest and greatest high-end<b>Tesla, Inc.</b>(NASDAQ:<b>TSLA</b>) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b294a3604c7ba82bd19b3c70be3a4020\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com</p>\n<p>Musk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”</p>\n<p>The Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.</p>\n<p>Instead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.</p>\n<p>As a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.</p>\n<p>This “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.</p>\n<p>Both the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.</p>\n<p>Clearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”</p>\n<p>As someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know do<i>not</i>want to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.</p>\n<p>What Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.</p>\n<p>This is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.</p>\n<p>However, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.</p>\n<p><b>Taking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential</b></p>\n<p>I’m talking about&nbsp;<b>Nio, Inc.</b>(NYSE:<b>NIO</b>). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio back in February.</p>\n<p>The company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.</p>\n<p>The company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies like<b>NVIDIA Corporation</b>(NASDAQ:<b>NVDA</b>), another one of my<b><i>Platinum Growth Club</i></b>Model Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.</p>\n<p>Now, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.</p>\n<p>With the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.</p>\n<p>That means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.</p>\n<p>Shares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”</p>\n<p>Interestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.</p>\n<p>In other words, NIO represents the<b>crème de la crème</b>of EV stocks right now.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy I Believe NIO Will Beat Out Tesla\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 15:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/06/why-i-believe-nio-will-beat-out-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145825451","content_text":"The fact that Tesla scrapped its Model S Plaid Plus release is just part of it.\n\nSuper fans of the latest and greatest high-endTesla, Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) model received some disappointing news a week ago when CEO Elon Musk abruptly canceled the release of its highly anticipated Model S Plaid Plus with a tweet on June 6.\nSource: nrqemi / Shutterstock.com\nMusk wrote there was… “No need, as Plaid is just so good.”\nThe Model S Plaid Plus was supposed to be the fastest, most powerful and priciest version of the company’s Model S. Priced at $149,990, it was to feature a range of 520 miles, thanks to its innovative 4680 battery cells, 1,100 horsepower and the ability to speed from 0 to 60 mph in less than two seconds.\nInstead, the company has begun delivering a new Model S Plaid that has only a 390-mile range and 1,020 horsepower, though it still sprints to from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just two seconds.\nAs a way to “sugar coat” its flip flop, Tesla said the Model S Plaid is just as fast as the Model S Plaid Plus and $20,000 cheaper. Humm.\nThis “bait and switch” has some Tesla fans worried, since they had deposits on the Model S Plaid Plus and wanted the innovative 4680 battery cells that Tesla had been touting as the key to longer range and more power. Essentially, the 4680 battery cells were the latest great Tesla development, since they were the first batteries to also be a structural component that supposedly allowed Tesla to lower the weight of its vehicles.\nBoth the company’s Austin and Berlin manufacturing plants now under construction are supposed to also be making the 4680 batteries for new Tesla vehicles. If there is a problem with the engineering associated with utilizing the 4680 batteries or making them a structural component, then Tesla has grossly miscalculated, which is now worrying investors.\nClearly something happened to delay the 4680 batteries that were supposed to provide Tesla with a competitive and engineering edge. For Tesla’s sake, I hope they figure out the problems associated with their much hyped 4680 battery cells, otherwise concerns about its two new manufacturing plants will emerge, as well as the stock losing more of its “mojo.”\nAs someone who owns more than a few high-performance vehicles, I can tell you that the engineering geeks I know donotwant to get a new Model S Plaid instead of a Model S Plaid Plus and will likely ask for their deposits back.\nWhat Tesla did is like Ferrari or Porsche telling its customers that one of their much-hyped new performance models is now not being sold because the base model was just as good! Car fanatics, like myself, like the latest and greatest engineering tidbits, so we would rather cancel our orders versus settle for a base model.\nThe good news for Tesla is that its China sales in May resurged to 21,936, up sharply from 11,671 in April. The company’s sales tend to spike at the end of each quarter. For example, Tesla sold 35,478 vehicles in China in March, which was the strongest month ever in China.\nThis is raising expectations for very strong China sales in June, especially now that the Model Y is being manufactured in Shanghai. Interestingly, since most Chinese Teslas are now made with iron phosphate batteries, these vehicles have lower range than its lithium cobalt vehicles, but its iron phosphate vehicles are cheaper and now increasingly being exported to Europe.\nHowever, I’m convinced another electric vehicle (EV) company will eventually displace Tesla as the biggest manufacturer of EVs in China.\nTaking Advantage of the EV Revolution’s Profit Potential\nI’m talking about Nio, Inc.(NYSE:NIO). The reality is that this company is on the verge of dominating the EV market in China and Hong Kong. It’s why I put NIO on myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio back in February.\nThe company boasts that it is the “next-generation car company,” as it designs and manufactures electric vehicles that utilize the latest technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI). NIO currently offers an electric seven-seater SUV (ES8) and a five-seater electric SUV (ES6) and recently introduced an attractive electric sedan (ET7). Its vehicles utilize NOMI, an in-vehicle artificial intelligence assistant.\nThe company is also partnering with cutting-edge chip companies likeNVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA), another one of myPlatinum Growth ClubModel Portfolio stocks. NIO plans to use the NVIDIA DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip for its electric vehicles that will provide autonomous driving capabilities. The NVIDIA DRIVE Orin-powered supercomputer, which is being called Adam, will be launched in the ET7 sedan in China in 2022. Announcements like this are very positive, so NIO has been stealing some of Tesla’s thunder lately.\nNow, it’s important to note that NIO was bailed out by the Chinese government. Last year, the Chinese government injected $1 billion and now has a 24% ownership in the company. The reality is that China wants to dominate at least five major industries by 2025, and NIO is now its ticket to dominate EV manufacturing.\nWith the backing of the Chinese government, some Wall Street firms are eager to help NIO by issuing new debt or equity. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if NIO surpasses Tesla, which is currently number-two in China, for market share in the upcoming years.\nThat means, if you missed Tesla’s parabolic run like I did, NIO is essentially giving us a “second chance” to make money in a potentially explosive electric vehicle company.\nShares of NIO climbed nearly 13% since the company’s June 4 announcement of its May delivery report and positive analyst comments, while Tesla shares rose almost 3%. First, NIO revealed that the global chip shortage is starting to take a toll on its business. NIO only delivered 6,711 vehicles in May, or a 5.5% decline from April’s deliveries. Company management noted that deliveries were “adversely impacted for several days due to the volatility of semiconductor supply and certain logistical adjustments.”\nInterestingly, despite the month-to-month dip, NIO’s deliveries were still up 95.3% year-over-year. Strong demand in China even inspired a Citigroup analyst to upgrade NIO to a buy rating, as he expects demand to accelerate in the coming months.\nIn other words, NIO represents thecrème de la crèmeof EV stocks right now.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887555151,"gmtCreate":1632074798173,"gmtModify":1676530695577,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887555151","repostId":"1198486138","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198486138","pubTimestamp":1632023224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198486138?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-19 11:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 ways men live without working in America","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198486138","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"How do they live? What are they doing for money? ","content":"<p>Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million people!</p>\n<p>How do they live? What are they doing for money? To me, this is one of the great mysteries of our time.</p>\n<p>I’m certainly not the first person to make note of this shocking statistic. You’ve heard people bemoaning this \"labor participation rate,\" which is simply the number of working-age men (usually counted as ages 16 to 64) not working or not looking for work, as a percentage of the overall labor force.</p>\n<p>It’s true that the pandemic, which of course produced a number of factors that made working more difficult never mind dangerous, pushed the labor participation rate to a record low. But the fact that millions of American males have not been working precedes COVID-19 by decades. In fact, the participation rate for men peaked at 87.4% in October 1949 and has been dropping steadily ever since. It now stands at 67.7%.</p>\n<p>As a business journalist for a good portion of those 70-plus years, I’ve looked at thousands of charts and graphs in my life, and I have to say this one is as jaw dropping as it is vexing:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/056158b8fa7157238c3d1521dd05c02e\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart of the U.S. labor force participation rate for men over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve</p>\n<p>Economists, sociologists, politicians, and cable news pundits each have their pet factors to explain the groundswell of non-work. But after digging down here, I’ve concluded there are many different forces at play. That’s what I want to explore today, which is: how men can live in America without working.</p>\n<p>I’m not talking about why men have lost their jobs — factories closing, layoffs, automation, outsourcing jobs overseas, even perhaps women entering the workforce, (in fact, the participation rate by women over the same time period is way up). What I want to get at is how they’re living without holding a \"real\" job, and by that I mean doing work where one reports income to the IRS, pays taxes and Social Security, etc.</p>\n<p>It’s important to note that every man in this group has his own story. They range from mentally ill homeless men who desperately need our help, to the I’m-doing-just-fine-thank-you-very-much, retired early, and former Silicon Valley coder. And there are infinite scenarios in between those two extremes, including, for instance, the many men who have chosen to bestay-at-home dadswhile their spouses work.</p>\n<p>It’s also the case that some men in this group may be unemployed and not seeking work because they’ve given up looking just for now — perhaps waiting for COVID to abate — and will start the search again soon. Here too, society needs to help.</p>\n<p>Still, none of this explains decade after decade of falling male employment.</p>\n<p>To that end, here to my mind are seven ways men are living without working in America:</p>\n<p><b>-Unemployment insurance</b></p>\n<p>Let’s start with this one because it’s a hot button issue. Conservatives and some liberals too have made the claim that state unemployment aid, coupled with $600 a week from the CARES Act, which was rolled out in March 2020, have reduced men’s need to work. (There are actually a variety of social programs at play,spelled out nicely hereby think tank The Century Foundation, which estimates that overall these programs have pumped $800 billion in the economy.) We’ll be getting a good read on whether all this relief did suppress employment now that CARES aid ended for some 7.5 million Americans earlier this month. But as Yahoo Finance’s Denitsa Tsekova reportedhereandhere, states that ended federal aid programs early didn’t see big increases in employment. That may mean these payments really weren’t enough to live off, or not enough to live off by themselves, which speaks to men looking to a combination of sources, like under the table income or family support and possibly some savings (see below).</p>\n<p><b>-Early retirement, pensions, disability and lawsuits</b></p>\n<p>Admittedly, this is a bit of a hodgepodge. And as is the case with many of these categories, hard data is tough to come by, but it is the case that millions of men under 64 are at least partly living off of pensions and 401(k)s. This would include everything from C-suite executives to union members. And don’t forget municipal workers, who make up almost 14% of the U.S. workforce. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are some 6,000 public sector retirement systems in the U.S.Collectively these plans have $4.5 trillion in assets,with 14.7 million working members and 11.2 million retirees. The plans distribute $323 billion in benefits annually, and again, some to men who are younger than 64. In fact in almost two-thirds of these plans,if you started working at 25, you max out at 57, a real inducement to stop working — at least at that job of course.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53e26b293f8a939a54b78315c3375a18\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Volunteers load cars with turkeys and other food assistance for laid off Walt Disney World cast members and others at a food distribution event on December 12, 2020 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images)More</p>\n<p>There’s also disability insurance from the Social Security Administration that is beingpaid to some 9 million Americanswhomay receive payments many years before retirement age. That's why I am including disability here, but not plain vanilla Social Security, which you can’t receive until age 62. The maximum disability benefit amount you can receive each month is currently $3,148. (However, the average beneficiary receives about $1,277 per month, according to the law group Social Security Disability Advocates.) Overall, it looks like theSSA pays out some $130 billion in disability annually.That’s not nothing. Then there’s money paid out in medical malpractice each year, smaller true, but stillestimated to be in excess of $3 billion.And don't forgetpayments from legal settlements and class action lawsuits.</p>\n<p>You argue all day about the right or wrong when it comes to these payouts, but the fact is many of them didn’t exist, or not at this magnitude, decades ago.</p>\n<p><b>-Savings, trading stocks, and bitcoin</b></p>\n<p>Consider now men are living off savings, or from money made in the market or maybe even selling NFTs. How many is it exactly? Who knows, but quite a few for sure. First off, Americans on average do have some money in the bank. Savings as a percentage of disposable income,according to the Federal Reserve of Kansas City,hit a record high of 33% in the spring of 2020 and is still at 14%, or nearly twice as high as it was prior to the pandemic.</p>\n<p>And according to arecent survey by Northwestern Mutual,average personal savings are up over 10% compared to last year, from $65,900 last year to $73,100. Average retirement savings increased 13%, from $87,500 last year to $98,800 today. So there’s that.</p>\n<p>Next let’s look at investing — first stocks. It is not irrelevant to this narrative that the S&amp;P 500 has climbed from 2,480 on March 12, 2020 — the day after the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic— to 4,441 today, or almost 80%. That’s a huge gain. Much of the action of course has been retail investors and the meme stock boom, as millions of American males stuck at home with nothing to do all day for the past 18 months passed the time trading stocks. Credit Suisse estimates that since the beginning of 2020, “retail trading as a share of overall market activityhas nearly doubledfrom between 15% and 18% to over 30%,” as CNBC reported. How many men were doing this and supporting themselves? Unclear, but upstart trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) — the broker dealer of choice for many of these new investors — reported that it had22.5 million funded user accountslast month, up from 7.2 million in March of 2020. Let’s just say 15 million new accounts is quite a number.</p>\n<p>Now crypto. You can laugh all you want, but the simple fact is that theprice of bitcoinis up from $4,861 on March 12, 2000 to $47,763 today, or basically up 10X, (and remember it even hit $64,888.99 this spring). Back to Robinhood, which according to The New York Times, also reported last month that “revenue from cryptocurrency trading fees totaled $233 million, a nearly 50-fold jump from $5 million a year earlier.” (And those are just fees off the trades, mind you.) Bottom line: Folks have made money here. (Of course these guys should be paying taxes on all those stock and crypto gains.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809084435ffdcbc0695311d158bb7a98\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Robinhood Markets, Inc. CEO and co-founder Vlad Tenev and co-founder Baiju Bhatt pose with Robinhood signage on Wall Street after the company's IPO in New York City, U.S., July 29, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly<b>-Working for cash, aka the under-the-table economy</b></p>\n<p>This one is very tough to measure, too.A study by the Federal Reserve of St. Louisestimates that the average size of the “informal economy” in developed countries is 13% of GDP. Honestly, that could be off by many percentage points, but just to give you a ballpark, GDP in the U.S. this year is about $22 trillion. So 13% of that is $2.86 trillion. As it turns out, $2 trillion-plus, is a number that has been thrown around quite a bit (hereandherefor instance) when it comes to estimating the size of the cash economy in the U.S. Even if half that money is paid out to women, that still leaves, say, $1 trillion dollars being made by men in this country off the books. That’s a big chunk of change. Are more people than ever working for cash these days? Again, another question that’s impossible to answer. I would bet it’s not fewer. For example, my electrician Luis just told me he can’t get anyone to work for him anymore — they all want to get paid in cash.</p>\n<p><b>-Living off family members</b></p>\n<p>Just to take one facet,the Pew Research Center reportedlast year that the pandemic “has pushed millions of Americans, especially young adults, to move in with family members. The share of 18- to 29-year-olds living with their parents has become a majority since U.S. coronavirus cases began spreading [in early 2020], surpassing the previous peak during the Great Depression era. In July, 52% of young adults resided with one or both of their parents, up from 47% in February.” How many of these individuals are males living rent free (and sharing food too), which maybe means they don’t have to work? Who knows, but some. Ditto for males who have moved in with in-laws or siblings. And again, many men are choosing to stay home and take care of kids while their spouses work.</p>\n<p><b>-Illegal work</b></p>\n<p>Front and center here is selling illegal drugs. Sadly, business looks to be booming, that is if overdoses are any sort of measure.According to the Washington Post, overdose deaths hit 93,000 last year, up a stunning 30% from 2019. Most of the overdoses were attributed to opioids; heroin, synthetic opioids like OxyContin and in particular Fentanyl. (This despite drug dealers facingsupply chain issuesduring COVID.) How many Americans are in this business and who are they? A number is almost impossible to come by here, but as for who they are,a government report on drug trafficking arrestsfrom five years ago notes that ”the majority of drug trafficking offenders were male (84.9%), the average age of these offenders at sentencing was 36 years, 70% were United States citizens (although this rate varied substantially depending on the type of drug involved), and that almost half (49.4%) of drug traffickers had little or no prior criminal history.” How big a business is selling drugs in America? Could beas much as $100 billion.I think it’s fair to say that a market that size requires many thousands of employees.</p>\n<p>What about other types of crime and criminals, everything from robbers and thieves to prostitutes and pimps? To that point there aresome 2 million people incarcerated in the U.S.right now. (We have the highest absolute number and the highest per capita on the planet, and holdsome 25% of the world's total prisoners, according to the ACLU.) Being in prison is another way of living in America without working, I guess. But not counting those locked up, how many bad guys are out there on the street? Conservatively, it has to be thousands and thousands, and speaking to this story, they're all doing their thing and not participating in the labor force.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f8f4b3e6a5aa97a10f5c7bb22dec1d7\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ORLEANS, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 10: A man holds onto a clamming rake while clamming at low tide July 10, 2021 in Town Cove, Orleans, Massachusetts. He filled a bushel basket of cherry stone clams. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)More<b>-Living off the land</b></p>\n<p>This would include gardening, fishing, hunting, clamming, berrying, and just general foraging. The numbers here seem to be climbing. Here for instancefrom The Guardian:</p>\n<p>“Fishing and huntinglicense sales increased 10%in California during the pandemic, reversing years of decline. Clamming has grown in popularity for several reasons: people are looking for safe activities to do outdoors, but also some are clamming for subsistence and trying to get money from selling the shellfish (which is illegal without a commercial license).”</p>\n<p>Ditto for Washington state, according to The Spokesman-Review:</p>\n<p>“From the start of the 2020 licensing year in May through Dec. 31, WDFW [Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife] sold nearly 45,000 more fishing licenses and 12,000 more hunting licenses than 2019. The number of new license holders — defined as someone who hadn’t purchased one for the previous five years — went up 16% for fishing licenses and almost 40% for hunters.”</p>\n<p>As for growing vegetables in home gardens, yes, it is up, way up too. Even before the pandemic, there were estimates thata third of American families grew vegetables.Now this,NPRreported last year:</p>\n<p>“‘We're being flooded with vegetable orders,’ says George Ball, executive chairman of the Burpee Seed Company, based in Warminster, Penn.</p>\n<p>Ball says he has noticed spikes in seed sales during bad times: the stock market crash of 1987, the dot com bubble burst of 2000, and he remembers the two oil crises of the 1970s from his childhood. But he says he has not seen a spike this large and widespread.</p>\n<p>So there you have it. It’s a whole range of ways and means, behaviors and experiences. I’m sure I missed some, too. Again, some non-working men are in dire straits and need our help. Others are living non-working lives without burdening society or others, such as a fireman on early retirement (though some argue municipal employee pensions are too high), or an investor who made a ton of money in the market and called it quits, or maybe a wilderness guy living off the land in Alaska.</p>\n<p>And some non-working men are not playing fair. Like getting paid under the table, fudging insurance claims or social programs. Some freeload off relatives. And some engage in overtly illegal behavior like boosting branded goods from chain stores to sell online or dealing heroin.</p>\n<p>I would imagine that more than a few of these men create a portfolio of sources, though I’m not sure they really think of it that way. Take for example a hypothetical guy in a rural area who lives with his grandmother rent free, (he does help her with the garden some). This guy also does some cash carpentry work, hunts for game, gets some food off his ex-wife’s WIC and helps his brother sell some weed. Can you get by this way? Some men probably are. Is this the new American way? For some men it probably is.</p>\n<p>That example perhaps, and to be sure of all of the above, I think go a long way toward explaining that chart from the beginning of the story, the one that shows the labor participation rate falling off a cliff over the past seven decades. And speaking of charts, another striking one came to mind when I was writing this, which I put here below. It shows U.S. GDP over the same time period as the labor participation rate.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f197be5c6c11483ec906a1757293e4d\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Chart of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve</p>\n<p>Of course, the line on this GDP chart is inversely correlated with the line on the labor participation graph. And I think there is a relationship between the two. Which is to say, the wealthier our nation has become over the decades, the less men are working. Fact is there is just a ton of money sloshing around in our country. And men seem to be able to get their hands on it, whether obtained legally, borrowed, leached off of or stolen.</p>\n<p>It seems like working legally to provide for yourself in America is really just one option these days.</p>\n<p><b><i>This article was featured in a Saturday edition of the Morning Brief on September 18, 2021. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET.Subscribe</i></b></p>\n<p><i>Andy Serwer is editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter:@serwer</i></p>","source":"yahoofinance_sg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 ways men live without working in America</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 ways men live without working in America\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-19 11:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/020219c8820f9fc9f11979454ce1b1c6","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-ways-men-live-without-working-in-america-092147068.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198486138","content_text":"Almost one-third of all working-age men in America aren’t doing diddly-squat. They don’t have a job, and they aren’t looking for one either. One-third of all working-age men. That’s almost 30 million people!\nHow do they live? What are they doing for money? To me, this is one of the great mysteries of our time.\nI’m certainly not the first person to make note of this shocking statistic. You’ve heard people bemoaning this \"labor participation rate,\" which is simply the number of working-age men (usually counted as ages 16 to 64) not working or not looking for work, as a percentage of the overall labor force.\nIt’s true that the pandemic, which of course produced a number of factors that made working more difficult never mind dangerous, pushed the labor participation rate to a record low. But the fact that millions of American males have not been working precedes COVID-19 by decades. In fact, the participation rate for men peaked at 87.4% in October 1949 and has been dropping steadily ever since. It now stands at 67.7%.\nAs a business journalist for a good portion of those 70-plus years, I’ve looked at thousands of charts and graphs in my life, and I have to say this one is as jaw dropping as it is vexing:\nChart of the U.S. labor force participation rate for men over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve\nEconomists, sociologists, politicians, and cable news pundits each have their pet factors to explain the groundswell of non-work. But after digging down here, I’ve concluded there are many different forces at play. That’s what I want to explore today, which is: how men can live in America without working.\nI’m not talking about why men have lost their jobs — factories closing, layoffs, automation, outsourcing jobs overseas, even perhaps women entering the workforce, (in fact, the participation rate by women over the same time period is way up). What I want to get at is how they’re living without holding a \"real\" job, and by that I mean doing work where one reports income to the IRS, pays taxes and Social Security, etc.\nIt’s important to note that every man in this group has his own story. They range from mentally ill homeless men who desperately need our help, to the I’m-doing-just-fine-thank-you-very-much, retired early, and former Silicon Valley coder. And there are infinite scenarios in between those two extremes, including, for instance, the many men who have chosen to bestay-at-home dadswhile their spouses work.\nIt’s also the case that some men in this group may be unemployed and not seeking work because they’ve given up looking just for now — perhaps waiting for COVID to abate — and will start the search again soon. Here too, society needs to help.\nStill, none of this explains decade after decade of falling male employment.\nTo that end, here to my mind are seven ways men are living without working in America:\n-Unemployment insurance\nLet’s start with this one because it’s a hot button issue. Conservatives and some liberals too have made the claim that state unemployment aid, coupled with $600 a week from the CARES Act, which was rolled out in March 2020, have reduced men’s need to work. (There are actually a variety of social programs at play,spelled out nicely hereby think tank The Century Foundation, which estimates that overall these programs have pumped $800 billion in the economy.) We’ll be getting a good read on whether all this relief did suppress employment now that CARES aid ended for some 7.5 million Americans earlier this month. But as Yahoo Finance’s Denitsa Tsekova reportedhereandhere, states that ended federal aid programs early didn’t see big increases in employment. That may mean these payments really weren’t enough to live off, or not enough to live off by themselves, which speaks to men looking to a combination of sources, like under the table income or family support and possibly some savings (see below).\n-Early retirement, pensions, disability and lawsuits\nAdmittedly, this is a bit of a hodgepodge. And as is the case with many of these categories, hard data is tough to come by, but it is the case that millions of men under 64 are at least partly living off of pensions and 401(k)s. This would include everything from C-suite executives to union members. And don’t forget municipal workers, who make up almost 14% of the U.S. workforce. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are some 6,000 public sector retirement systems in the U.S.Collectively these plans have $4.5 trillion in assets,with 14.7 million working members and 11.2 million retirees. The plans distribute $323 billion in benefits annually, and again, some to men who are younger than 64. In fact in almost two-thirds of these plans,if you started working at 25, you max out at 57, a real inducement to stop working — at least at that job of course.\nVolunteers load cars with turkeys and other food assistance for laid off Walt Disney World cast members and others at a food distribution event on December 12, 2020 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/NurPhoto via Getty Images)More\nThere’s also disability insurance from the Social Security Administration that is beingpaid to some 9 million Americanswhomay receive payments many years before retirement age. That's why I am including disability here, but not plain vanilla Social Security, which you can’t receive until age 62. The maximum disability benefit amount you can receive each month is currently $3,148. (However, the average beneficiary receives about $1,277 per month, according to the law group Social Security Disability Advocates.) Overall, it looks like theSSA pays out some $130 billion in disability annually.That’s not nothing. Then there’s money paid out in medical malpractice each year, smaller true, but stillestimated to be in excess of $3 billion.And don't forgetpayments from legal settlements and class action lawsuits.\nYou argue all day about the right or wrong when it comes to these payouts, but the fact is many of them didn’t exist, or not at this magnitude, decades ago.\n-Savings, trading stocks, and bitcoin\nConsider now men are living off savings, or from money made in the market or maybe even selling NFTs. How many is it exactly? Who knows, but quite a few for sure. First off, Americans on average do have some money in the bank. Savings as a percentage of disposable income,according to the Federal Reserve of Kansas City,hit a record high of 33% in the spring of 2020 and is still at 14%, or nearly twice as high as it was prior to the pandemic.\nAnd according to arecent survey by Northwestern Mutual,average personal savings are up over 10% compared to last year, from $65,900 last year to $73,100. Average retirement savings increased 13%, from $87,500 last year to $98,800 today. So there’s that.\nNext let’s look at investing — first stocks. It is not irrelevant to this narrative that the S&P 500 has climbed from 2,480 on March 12, 2020 — the day after the World Health Organization declared COVID a pandemic— to 4,441 today, or almost 80%. That’s a huge gain. Much of the action of course has been retail investors and the meme stock boom, as millions of American males stuck at home with nothing to do all day for the past 18 months passed the time trading stocks. Credit Suisse estimates that since the beginning of 2020, “retail trading as a share of overall market activityhas nearly doubledfrom between 15% and 18% to over 30%,” as CNBC reported. How many men were doing this and supporting themselves? Unclear, but upstart trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) — the broker dealer of choice for many of these new investors — reported that it had22.5 million funded user accountslast month, up from 7.2 million in March of 2020. Let’s just say 15 million new accounts is quite a number.\nNow crypto. You can laugh all you want, but the simple fact is that theprice of bitcoinis up from $4,861 on March 12, 2000 to $47,763 today, or basically up 10X, (and remember it even hit $64,888.99 this spring). Back to Robinhood, which according to The New York Times, also reported last month that “revenue from cryptocurrency trading fees totaled $233 million, a nearly 50-fold jump from $5 million a year earlier.” (And those are just fees off the trades, mind you.) Bottom line: Folks have made money here. (Of course these guys should be paying taxes on all those stock and crypto gains.)\nRobinhood Markets, Inc. CEO and co-founder Vlad Tenev and co-founder Baiju Bhatt pose with Robinhood signage on Wall Street after the company's IPO in New York City, U.S., July 29, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly-Working for cash, aka the under-the-table economy\nThis one is very tough to measure, too.A study by the Federal Reserve of St. Louisestimates that the average size of the “informal economy” in developed countries is 13% of GDP. Honestly, that could be off by many percentage points, but just to give you a ballpark, GDP in the U.S. this year is about $22 trillion. So 13% of that is $2.86 trillion. As it turns out, $2 trillion-plus, is a number that has been thrown around quite a bit (hereandherefor instance) when it comes to estimating the size of the cash economy in the U.S. Even if half that money is paid out to women, that still leaves, say, $1 trillion dollars being made by men in this country off the books. That’s a big chunk of change. Are more people than ever working for cash these days? Again, another question that’s impossible to answer. I would bet it’s not fewer. For example, my electrician Luis just told me he can’t get anyone to work for him anymore — they all want to get paid in cash.\n-Living off family members\nJust to take one facet,the Pew Research Center reportedlast year that the pandemic “has pushed millions of Americans, especially young adults, to move in with family members. The share of 18- to 29-year-olds living with their parents has become a majority since U.S. coronavirus cases began spreading [in early 2020], surpassing the previous peak during the Great Depression era. In July, 52% of young adults resided with one or both of their parents, up from 47% in February.” How many of these individuals are males living rent free (and sharing food too), which maybe means they don’t have to work? Who knows, but some. Ditto for males who have moved in with in-laws or siblings. And again, many men are choosing to stay home and take care of kids while their spouses work.\n-Illegal work\nFront and center here is selling illegal drugs. Sadly, business looks to be booming, that is if overdoses are any sort of measure.According to the Washington Post, overdose deaths hit 93,000 last year, up a stunning 30% from 2019. Most of the overdoses were attributed to opioids; heroin, synthetic opioids like OxyContin and in particular Fentanyl. (This despite drug dealers facingsupply chain issuesduring COVID.) How many Americans are in this business and who are they? A number is almost impossible to come by here, but as for who they are,a government report on drug trafficking arrestsfrom five years ago notes that ”the majority of drug trafficking offenders were male (84.9%), the average age of these offenders at sentencing was 36 years, 70% were United States citizens (although this rate varied substantially depending on the type of drug involved), and that almost half (49.4%) of drug traffickers had little or no prior criminal history.” How big a business is selling drugs in America? Could beas much as $100 billion.I think it’s fair to say that a market that size requires many thousands of employees.\nWhat about other types of crime and criminals, everything from robbers and thieves to prostitutes and pimps? To that point there aresome 2 million people incarcerated in the U.S.right now. (We have the highest absolute number and the highest per capita on the planet, and holdsome 25% of the world's total prisoners, according to the ACLU.) Being in prison is another way of living in America without working, I guess. But not counting those locked up, how many bad guys are out there on the street? Conservatively, it has to be thousands and thousands, and speaking to this story, they're all doing their thing and not participating in the labor force.\nORLEANS, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 10: A man holds onto a clamming rake while clamming at low tide July 10, 2021 in Town Cove, Orleans, Massachusetts. He filled a bushel basket of cherry stone clams. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)More-Living off the land\nThis would include gardening, fishing, hunting, clamming, berrying, and just general foraging. The numbers here seem to be climbing. Here for instancefrom The Guardian:\n“Fishing and huntinglicense sales increased 10%in California during the pandemic, reversing years of decline. Clamming has grown in popularity for several reasons: people are looking for safe activities to do outdoors, but also some are clamming for subsistence and trying to get money from selling the shellfish (which is illegal without a commercial license).”\nDitto for Washington state, according to The Spokesman-Review:\n“From the start of the 2020 licensing year in May through Dec. 31, WDFW [Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife] sold nearly 45,000 more fishing licenses and 12,000 more hunting licenses than 2019. The number of new license holders — defined as someone who hadn’t purchased one for the previous five years — went up 16% for fishing licenses and almost 40% for hunters.”\nAs for growing vegetables in home gardens, yes, it is up, way up too. Even before the pandemic, there were estimates thata third of American families grew vegetables.Now this,NPRreported last year:\n“‘We're being flooded with vegetable orders,’ says George Ball, executive chairman of the Burpee Seed Company, based in Warminster, Penn.\nBall says he has noticed spikes in seed sales during bad times: the stock market crash of 1987, the dot com bubble burst of 2000, and he remembers the two oil crises of the 1970s from his childhood. But he says he has not seen a spike this large and widespread.\nSo there you have it. It’s a whole range of ways and means, behaviors and experiences. I’m sure I missed some, too. Again, some non-working men are in dire straits and need our help. Others are living non-working lives without burdening society or others, such as a fireman on early retirement (though some argue municipal employee pensions are too high), or an investor who made a ton of money in the market and called it quits, or maybe a wilderness guy living off the land in Alaska.\nAnd some non-working men are not playing fair. Like getting paid under the table, fudging insurance claims or social programs. Some freeload off relatives. And some engage in overtly illegal behavior like boosting branded goods from chain stores to sell online or dealing heroin.\nI would imagine that more than a few of these men create a portfolio of sources, though I’m not sure they really think of it that way. Take for example a hypothetical guy in a rural area who lives with his grandmother rent free, (he does help her with the garden some). This guy also does some cash carpentry work, hunts for game, gets some food off his ex-wife’s WIC and helps his brother sell some weed. Can you get by this way? Some men probably are. Is this the new American way? For some men it probably is.\nThat example perhaps, and to be sure of all of the above, I think go a long way toward explaining that chart from the beginning of the story, the one that shows the labor participation rate falling off a cliff over the past seven decades. And speaking of charts, another striking one came to mind when I was writing this, which I put here below. It shows U.S. GDP over the same time period as the labor participation rate.\nChart of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product over time, courtesy of the St. Louis Federal Reserve\nOf course, the line on this GDP chart is inversely correlated with the line on the labor participation graph. And I think there is a relationship between the two. Which is to say, the wealthier our nation has become over the decades, the less men are working. Fact is there is just a ton of money sloshing around in our country. And men seem to be able to get their hands on it, whether obtained legally, borrowed, leached off of or stolen.\nIt seems like working legally to provide for yourself in America is really just one option these days.\nThis article was featured in a Saturday edition of the Morning Brief on September 18, 2021. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET.Subscribe\nAndy Serwer is editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter:@serwer","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":88,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863208790,"gmtCreate":1632392762910,"gmtModify":1676530771166,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>huatttttt","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$</a>huatttttt","text":"$Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$huatttttt","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc4cea7cd0bec2931aa1267f44a5a28f","width":"720","height":"2040"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863208790","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899601700,"gmtCreate":1628176111000,"gmtModify":1703502675971,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>i sold it this morning at 293 ??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>i sold it this morning at 293 ??","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$i sold it this morning at 293 ??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899601700","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":537,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171102872,"gmtCreate":1626709982796,"gmtModify":1703763862907,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??????????","listText":"??????????","text":"??????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171102872","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897554807,"gmtCreate":1628948614109,"gmtModify":1676529898371,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897554807","repostId":"2159321505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159321505","pubTimestamp":1628911811,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2159321505?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-14 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159321505","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. ","content":"<p>Board members would serve for two years rather than three</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abc701f141f0c0044cabe912e510fe2e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES</span></p>\n<p>Tesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.</p>\n<p>One of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s&nbsp;board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.</p>\n<p>If the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the&nbsp;filing.</p>\n<p>The board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.</p>\n<p>Tesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp&nbsp;founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.</p>\n<p>Tesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.</p>\n<p>The two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.</p>\n<p>Tesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&amp;P 500 index.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla seeks to reduce board members’ terms, make other changes in October shareholder meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-14 11:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES\nTesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-seeks-to-reduce-board-terms-in-october-shareholder-meeting-11628888340?mod=newsviewer_click","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159321505","content_text":"Board members would serve for two years rather than three\nTesla CEO Elon Musk in Germany last year. MAJA HITIJ/GETTY IMAGES\nTesla Inc. set its shareholder meeting for Oct. 7 at the Fremont, Calif., factory, with a call for reducing its directors’ terms among the proposals the electric-car maker will bring to the table, the company said in filing late Friday.\nOne of the proposals calls for each director’s term to be reduced from three years to two years. Tesla’s board currently has nine members who are divided into three classes in staggered three-year terms.\nIf the proposal is approved, however, the board will be divided into two classes with staggered two-year terms, with directors distributed as equally between the classes as possible, Tesla said in the filing.\nThe board would be reduced to eight members, since Antonio Gracias, a venture capitalist who has served on the Tesla board since 2007, said in 2019 he’d not be seeking reelection when his term ends this year.\nTesla’s board nominated current board members James Murdoch, the youngest son of News Corp founder Rupert Murdoch, and Kimbal Musk, Chief Executive Elon Musk’s brother, for re-election as class II directors, with terms expiring in 2024. If the term reduction is approved, then their terms would end in 2023, the company said.\nTesla’s curtailing board member terms was a response to a shareholder proposal calling to elect each board member for one year.\nThe two-year term, however, “strikes a suitable balance to the long-term interests of and nearer-term accountability to our stockholders at this time,” Tesla said.\nTesla shares were flat in after-hours trading after ending the regular trading day down 0.7%. The stock has gained 1.6% this year, compared with gains of around 19% for the S&P 500 index.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145338963,"gmtCreate":1626189152352,"gmtModify":1703755241433,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$</a>sshoukd I buy to average down?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$</a>sshoukd I buy to average down?","text":"$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$sshoukd I buy to average down?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145338963","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896414352,"gmtCreate":1628600923676,"gmtModify":1676529792559,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???????????","listText":"???????????","text":"???????????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/896414352","repostId":"2158691471","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145024172,"gmtCreate":1626184052096,"gmtModify":1703755016937,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$</a>??????","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SGOC\">$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$</a>??????","text":"$SGOCO Group Ltd(SGOC)$??????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35dbf1dcd3aa338e68c81dcedf6403ce","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145024172","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":319042731016408,"gmtCreate":1718902355549,"gmtModify":1718902364254,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4beb31d51fdf51c6662e6ea133a9eec8","width":"1092","height":"1717"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/319042731016408","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887555849,"gmtCreate":1632074828581,"gmtModify":1676530695570,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>should buy!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a>should buy!&nbsp;","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$should buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/887555849","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":95,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815279739,"gmtCreate":1630683774321,"gmtModify":1676530376871,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>should buy?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$</a>should buy?","text":"$ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures(UVXY)$should buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f57dcd113cf35c6ef140a4abda16fd3c","width":"720","height":"1982"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815279739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833992022,"gmtCreate":1629194697266,"gmtModify":1676529961514,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???????","listText":"???????","text":"???????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/833992022","repostId":"1123297263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123297263","pubTimestamp":1629192705,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123297263?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-17 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123297263","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltu","content":"<p>With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&amp;P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.</p>\n<p><u><b>BULL CASE:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Earnings momentum</b>– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus</li>\n <li><b>Accelerating buybacks</b>– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn</li>\n <li><b>Improving COVID environment</b>–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states</li>\n <li><b>More stimulus</b>– the most likely is infrastructure,<b>which could be $550bn or ~$4T</b></li>\n <li><b>China growth reboot</b>– China may decide to add more fiscal &amp; monetary stimulus helping boost RoW</li>\n <li><b>Improved labor markets</b>– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.</li>\n</ol>\n<p><u><b>BEAR CASE:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>COVID expands/mutates</b>– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"<i><b>we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids</b></i>\"</li>\n <li><b>Online schooling</b>– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;</li>\n <li><b>Fed policy mistake</b>– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;</li>\n <li><b>China’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth</b>– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.</li>\n <li><b>Government Shutdown</b>– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30</li>\n</ol>\n<p><u><b>RISKS:</b></u></p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>Geopolitics</b>– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;</li>\n <li><b>US Consumer fails to boost the economy</b>– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&amp;A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.</li>\n <li><b>Rates/USD</b>– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,</li>\n <li><b>Financial conditions</b>– could become a headwind, stalling growth.</li>\n</ol>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan Lists The Bull And Bear Cases For Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-17 17:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-lists-bull-and-bear-cases-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123297263","content_text":"With most banks publishing mea culpas (seeGoldmanandMorgan Stanley) for failing to predict the meltup in the market that has now pushed the S&P 100% higher from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 and is trading at a new all time high as of this moment, this morning JPMorgan - which has been one of the most vocally bullish banks even if it has called for outperformance of value stocks which have lost their mojo in the past 3 months as the reflation case was abandoned by markets - published its Bull and Bear Cases, including several key risks that the bank's strategist believe will define markets for the next few months.\nBULL CASE:\n\nEarnings momentum– JPM's chief equity strategist increased his EPS estimates on 7/20/21 to $205 for 2021, $230for 2022, and $250 for 2023; all are above Street consensus\nAccelerating buybacks– As of 8/6/21 there were $477bn of announced buybacks, implying $800bn annualized number which would trail only 2018 in $-volume and exceed 2019’s $702bn\nImproving COVID environment–this will boost Consumer spending and job growth; JPM cites Marko Kolanovic' view that the effective reproduction number (Rt) is declining in 40 of 50 states\nMore stimulus– the most likely is infrastructure,which could be $550bn or ~$4T\nChina growth reboot– China may decide to add more fiscal & monetary stimulus helping boost RoW\nImproved labor markets– this would also have positive, direct impacts on GDP.\n\nBEAR CASE:\n\nCOVID expands/mutates– JPM says that there is evidence that Delta-variant is more harmful on children than other strains and the under 18 year old hospitalization rate is the highest of the pandemic (WaPo); given children under 12 are ineligible for vaccines JPM believes that \"we may see lockdowns reinstated to protect kids\"\nOnline schooling– A move to delay or cancel in-person learning is market negative given the impacts on the labor market, spending without stimulus, and sentiment;\nFed policy mistake– The bank believes that at this stage, it would be too early for the Fed to announce tapering which could mean that unemployment does not reach February 2020 levels as financial conditions tighten;\nChina’s COVID-Zero policy hurts global growth– the shutdown of the world’s 3rd busiest port in China in response to one positive case triggering global delays include at the Port of Los Angeles but generally the policy has led most economists to downgrade growth.\nGovernment Shutdown– US fiscal policy has been a tailwind throughout the pandemic but the fighting surrounding infra and the debt ceiling could lead to another shutdown according to JPM; the 2011 shutdown led to a US credit downgrade on 8/5/11 triggering a 1.29% decline in the SPX in Aug/Sept with the 10Y yield falling from 2.40% on 8/4 to 1.92% on 9/30\n\nRISKS:\n\nGeopolitics– the top risk is the situation in Afghanistan which could spill across the region potentially bringing American/Allied, Chinese, or Russian, forces to the region or a prolonged basis; at best this is a humanitarian crisis that triggers waves of refugees;\nUS Consumer fails to boost the economy– while much focus has been on stimulus and savings rates, one hidden source of level is the proliferation of Buy Now, Pay Later (“BNPL”) that grew from $9.5bn in 2019 to $19bn in 2020 (CNBC) and may grow exponentially from here given new entrants like Apple and M&A. There is evidence that BNPL represents hidden leverage and thus could mute the impact of normalizing savings rates and/or become a new source of economy-wide credit risk.\nRates/USD– a surge in yields, a plunge in dollars, or inflation expectations jumping materially could drive volatility into Equity markets; and,\nFinancial conditions– could become a headwind, stalling growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887555313,"gmtCreate":1632074770032,"gmtModify":1676530695570,"author":{"id":"3583264330250179","authorId":"3583264330250179","name":"Yayatrades","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6dc94e7b19cbc9ea399d705c93ada0d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583264330250179","authorIdStr":"3583264330250179"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$JD.com(JD)$</a>should buy?&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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