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2022-05-19

What drugs this guy on? I am not a tsla fan but the analysis is fundamentally flawed...

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-03-18

‌$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$‌expecting a volatile day today...

2022-01-20

This analysis does not provide solid reasons to avoid... In fact if u research on your own... These are reasons u shld be buying....

Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022

2022-05-08

The author really tried.

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-02-05

Somehow I still feel it has that growth potential out there and market sentiments for it is in its infancy stage

Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?

2022-01-31

QR is doing well in terms of cargo space!

Boeing wins Qatar freighter deal to be signed on Monday

2022-04-12

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$the most chill big cap with all the roller coaster happening

2022-01-20

Limping on the call to hope for some good news.. a blast off to a new 2022

Tesla earnings: News about the Cybertruck and new factories could set the tone for 2022

2022-04-07

Wiped out the positive week in a flash..

Crypto Stocks Dropped in Morning Trading

2022-02-15

Look at a growth tech stock in a wrong direction.. if the main business idea remains with the introduction of several potential upsides. PE ratio is not the only thing to value a stock at

Nvidia's Shares Face A Steep Drop Following Results

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Since the beginning of the year, the broad-based S&P 500 and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/08/3-surefire-stocks-turn-200000-to-1-million-by-2030/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Surefire Stocks That Can Turn $200,000 Into $1 Million by 2030</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Surefire Stocks That Can Turn $200,000 Into $1 Million by 2030\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-09 09:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/08/3-surefire-stocks-turn-200000-to-1-million-by-2030/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Whether you're a new or tenured investor, you've been given a wake-up call in 2022 that stocks can go down just as easily as they can rise. Since the beginning of the year, the broad-based S&P 500 and...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/08/3-surefire-stocks-turn-200000-to-1-million-by-2030/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPST":"Upstart Holdings, Inc.","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/05/08/3-surefire-stocks-turn-200000-to-1-million-by-2030/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2233653056","content_text":"Whether you're a new or tenured investor, you've been given a wake-up call in 2022 that stocks can go down just as easily as they can rise. Since the beginning of the year, the broad-based S&P 500 and nearly 126-year-old Dow Jones Industrial Average have declined by more than 10% from their all-time closing highs. Things have been even more challenging for the tech-driven Nasdaq Composite, which has shed as much as 24% since its November peak and was firmly in a bear market as of early last week.But where there's short-term pain, there's also an opportunity for long-term gains. That's because every stock market correction and bear market has eventually been wiped away by a bull market rally. When you invest in innovative stocks at a discount and allow your investment thesis to play out over time, there's a good chance you'll build wealth.Image source: Getty Images.The following three surefire stocks are all trading at a discount during the market sell-off and have both the catalysts and intangibles necessary to turn a $200,000 investment into $1 million by 2030.NioThe first innovative company that has the potential to quintuple investors' money over the next eight years is China-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Nio.Although supply chain concerns are never a positive, the important thing to note here is that Nio's near-term struggles have absolutely nothing to do with demand. This means opportunistic investors have the chance to buy this innovative EV maker at a substantial discount to its all-time high.Nio's innovation comes in two forms. The first is readily apparent: its introduction of new vehicles. For example, the company's ET7 and ET5 sedans offer up to 621 miles of range with the top battery option. These sedans are direct competitors to Tesla's flagship sedans, the Model S and Model 3, and provide superior range (again, with the battery upgrade). China is the world's leading auto market, which gives Nio a large runway with which to gobble up market share with its premium sedans and SUVs.The other way Nio is innovating is with its service. In August 2020, the company introduced its battery-as-a-service (BaaS) subscription, which allows its EV buyers to charge, swap, or upgrade their batteries. Enrollment in BaaS also provides a discount on the purchase price of a Nio EV. Despite giving up some near-term sales with BaaS, Nio locks in long-term subscription revenue and the loyalty of its early buyers.Based on Wall Street's fluid forecast, Nio is on track to quadruple its sales by 2024, as well as turn the corner to recurring profitability. By 2023, most of the company's supply chain issues should be in the rearview mirror. That makes it a good bet to turn deliver 400% returns for shareholders by 2030.Image source: Getty Images.Upstart HoldingsA second surefire stock that can deliver jaw-dropping sales and profit growth throughout the remainder of the decade is cloud-based lending platform Upstart Holdings.The big knock against Upstart is that historically high inflation in the U.S. is coercing the nation's central bank to get aggressive with interest rate hikes. As a lending-based service, there's obvious concern that higher interest rates will dramatically slow loan-processing activity, which would be bad news for the company.But Upstart has a few tricks up its sleeve. To begin with, its lending platform relies on artificial intelligence (AI). Whereas the traditional loan-vetting process can take weeks, approximately 70% of Upstart's loan applicants are fully automated and approved on the spot.  This helps save lending institutions time and money.What's interesting is that Upstart's AI-powered lending platform is helping to democratize loan access without adversely impacting lending institutions. Even though the average credit score of Upstart's approvals is lower than the average credit score of traditional loan approvals, there's been no difference in delinquency rates. As interest rates rise and the sheer number of loan applications to process declines, it's likely we'll see banks turn to Upstart even more than they are now given the success of its AI-driven lending platform.Something else investors should note is that Upstart has no credit exposure and generated 94% of its revenue from fees and services. This means if a recession does strike and loan delinquencies rise, Upstart doesn't have to set aside capital to cover loan losses.Looking a bit further out, Upstart should also benefit from its push into AI-based auto lending. The auto loan origination market is over seven times larger than the personal loan market it's been focused on for years. Upstart is in the very early innings of what should be sustained rapid growth.Image source: Pinterest.PinterestThe third surefire stock that can turn a $200,000 investment into a cool $1 million by 2030 is social media company Pinterest.The pandemic has sent Pinterest on a roller-coaster ride. It initially soared on big user gains, with people stuck in their homes during the initial stages of the pandemic. But since the end of March 2021, declines in monthly active user (MAU) figures have left Wall Street skeptical of Pinterest's future. To add, there's also concern that Apple's iOS privacy changes, which allow app users to turn off data tracking, could inhibit ad-driven businesses like Pinterest.However, neither of these near-term headwinds should be fazing long-term investors. For example, even though Pinterest's total MAUs have declined from a peak of 478 million to 433 million over the past year, panning out four or five years shows a steady uptrend in total MAUs. In other words, the MAU decline in recent quarters is simply user growth retracing back to historic norms following the unsustainable pandemic-related boost.Additionally, regardless of whether MAUs have increased or declined on a year-over-year basis, Pinterest hasn't had any trouble monetizing its user base. The latest quarter, which featured 45 million fewer MAUs than the same quarter last year, saw global average revenue per user (ARPU) climb 28%, with European ARPU up an even more impressive 40%.  This demonstrates that merchants are willing to pay a premium to reach Pinterest's user base. It also clearly suggests that international markets are where Pinterest's greatest opportunity lies.Apple's iOS privacy changes aren't much to worry about, either. While other social media platforms have some guesswork to do in order to help advertisers target users, the entire premise of Pinterest's platform is for users to freely and willingly share the things, places, and services that interest them. This makes Pinterest incredibly valuable for merchants wanting to target specific interests.Following a nearly 15-month downtrend, Pinterest looks ripe for the picking and fully capable of quintupling investors' money by the end of the decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PINS":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"UPST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062932959,"gmtCreate":1651985263871,"gmtModify":1676535009320,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The author really tried.","listText":"The author really tried.","text":"The author really tried.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062932959","repostId":"1131831539","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9080335564,"gmtCreate":1649844314486,"gmtModify":1676534588323,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>what direction today..","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>what direction today..","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$what direction today..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8feec1e4b716b28280075b87215fb190","width":"1080","height":"3064"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9080335564","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017907117,"gmtCreate":1649731476482,"gmtModify":1676534559950,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Elon ftwwwww","listText":"Elon ftwwwww","text":"Elon ftwwwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017907117","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9017902541,"gmtCreate":1649731220592,"gmtModify":1676534559890,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>how low can you go? Hmmm","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>how low can you go? Hmmm","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$how low can you go? Hmmm","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/177d8184f15a472659007a38006259a4","width":"1080","height":"3064"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9017902541","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014489316,"gmtCreate":1649695816779,"gmtModify":1676534552770,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>i m think at least after june with the yield scares still looming over ppl heads","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>i m think at least after june with the yield scares still looming over ppl heads","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$i m think at least after june with the yield scares still looming over ppl heads","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014489316","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014480716,"gmtCreate":1649695641294,"gmtModify":1676534552762,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>the most chill big cap with all the roller coaster happening","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>the most chill big cap with all the roller coaster happening","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$the most chill big cap with all the roller coaster happening","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1530f62736fcfd7d35532deee2ea73b","width":"1080","height":"2977"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014480716","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015071463,"gmtCreate":1649400528982,"gmtModify":1676534506218,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GNUS\">$Genius Brands International Inc(GNUS)$</a>this is in cold storage...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/GNUS\">$Genius Brands International Inc(GNUS)$</a>this is in cold storage...","text":"$Genius Brands International Inc(GNUS)$this is in cold storage...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f6eb91588304b370cb0e5207cfe2e5a7","width":"1080","height":"3064"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015071463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015079853,"gmtCreate":1649400182172,"gmtModify":1676534506179,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What. The. Heck... it's absolutely bollocks... two absolutely different business fundamentals&nbsp;","listText":"What. The. Heck... it's absolutely bollocks... two absolutely different business fundamentals&nbsp;","text":"What. The. Heck... it's absolutely bollocks... two absolutely different business fundamentals","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015079853","repostId":"1116986575","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1116986575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649379607,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1116986575?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-08 09:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Stock May Soon Take A Very Profound Turn For The Worse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116986575","media":"eeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia's stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.T","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Nvidia&#39;s stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.</li><li>The exercise tells us this isn&#39;t about a business and its fundamentals, but human psychology.</li><li>Where Nvidia goes from here may already be pre-determined.</li></ul><p>Patterns appear all over the marketplace, and while they don&#39;t always play out exactly as expected, they can give clues as to what <i>might</i> happen next. They are worth considering and investigating with an open mind. For example, in December, I asked what if Nvidia Of Today Is The Cisco Of 2000?</p><p>The story was mocked by many and called crazy. After all, what does stoggy old Cisco (CSCO) have to do with a high-growth company like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which makes all these wonderful GPUs helping to expand the data center and improve gaming? The visionary CEO Jensen Huang leads Nvidia today. Cisco had this guy John Chambers, a fantastic visionary in his own right.</p><p>In reality, Nvidia today and its growth rates can&#39;t compare to Cisco. But at one point, Cisco was a blistering growth stock. Cisco&#39;s prospects were so significant that it was deemed on Feb. 13, 2000, in an LA Times story to be the first $1 trillion company. By some estimates, a dollar in 2000 is around $1.65 today. That would have made Cisco worth $1.65 trillion in today&#39;s dollar, or $1 trillion more than Nvidia today.</p><p>There&#39;s a story here, and that story tells us that when optimism is high, expectations are massive. Human psychology plays an enormous part in stocks and how much investors are willing to pay for those future earnings potential. The psychological aspect of the relationship between Cisco and Nvidia is so interesting. In December, I pointed out the Nvidia of today was very much tracking the path of Cisco from 1998 through 2002.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50af596bc3ad71eb3ee83bb8995e2e8a\" tg-width=\"647\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Refinitiv</p><p>I still track this relationship, and much to my surprise, the pattern has continued over the past four months. Not only has it continued, but it has been able to make nearly all the same twists and turns along the way.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ea73733328ca602c763ed7ce4a0377d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>This relationship comes to an inflection point very soon, where it will either continue to work or not. By my estimates, that inflection point is about 20 to 25 days away, where either Nvidia continues to be a stock that follows its own destiny or follows Cisco&#39;s steep decline into the middle of 2001.</p><p>The relationship has nothing to do with either of these companies&#39; fundamentals. Cisco doubled its revenue over the past 20 years, climbing to more than $50 billion per year. Meanwhile, the stock has never been able to climb back to those early century highs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3ec049b6daf4dea447c4296b904621f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>How much investors are willing to pay for Cisco&#39;s revenue stream has changed, going from an insanely high 60 times its trailing twelve-month sales to just four today. For Nvidia, its price to sales multiple has expanded too, rising to almost 34 at its peak and has fallen back to 23. It&#39;s where that ratio goes from here that will determine if Nvidia continues on the same path as Cisco or goes its own way.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbe9bc73a4d73819bc479bb762d94cb8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Bloomberg</p><p>Nvidia may double its revenue just like Cisco, and the stock price never rises back to all-time highs. It isn&#39;t to say that the stock won&#39;t go to new all-time highs either. The exercise tells us that it isn&#39;t always about the long-term fundamental outlook. It&#39;s more about the psychology of how much investors are willing to pay for a stock&#39;s future earnings or sales stream.</p><p>Consider that Nvidia traded for a peak price to sales ratio on a TTM basis of 15 in 2017 and in the January-February time frame of 2020, just before the pandemic. But with the help of the Fed and its easy monetary policy, multiples for <b><i>all</i></b> stocks expanded. At its current 22.8, Nvidia&#39;s P/S ratio would need to fall 35% to get back to 15, which would knock the stock down to $160. For the stock to rise back to $245 or its current market cap of $615.4 billion, at a P/S ratio of 15, sales would need to climb $41.0 billion from the current fiscal year 2023 estimates of $34.9 billion and actual $26.9 billion in fiscal 2022. $41 billion is certainly an achievable number for Nvidia, but it could also suggest that Nvidia does a lot of nothing over the next couple of years as sales catch up with the stock price.</p><p>The big question is where multiples will stand over the next year or two - will they rise and fall? It seems reasonable to think that if easy money ushers in multiple expansion, tighter monetary policy ushers in a period of multiple contraction. It could even send the stock&#39;s P/S ratio well below 15.</p><p>What&#39;s clear is that Nvidia&#39;s current multiple is very elevated because optimism among investors still is high, maybe too high, and the path of the stock is likely to be more challenging from here than over the past two years.</p><p>Which direction Nvidia ends up taking may or may not already be pre-determined. Only time will tell.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Stock May Soon Take A Very Profound Turn For The Worse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Stock May Soon Take A Very Profound Turn For The Worse\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-08 09:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500283-nvidia-stock-sentiment-high><strong>eeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia's stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.The exercise tells us this isn't about a business and its fundamentals, but human psychology.Where ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500283-nvidia-stock-sentiment-high\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500283-nvidia-stock-sentiment-high","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116986575","content_text":"SummaryNvidia's stock is mirroring the patterns last seen in Cisco at the beginning of the century.The exercise tells us this isn't about a business and its fundamentals, but human psychology.Where Nvidia goes from here may already be pre-determined.Patterns appear all over the marketplace, and while they don't always play out exactly as expected, they can give clues as to what might happen next. They are worth considering and investigating with an open mind. For example, in December, I asked what if Nvidia Of Today Is The Cisco Of 2000?The story was mocked by many and called crazy. After all, what does stoggy old Cisco (CSCO) have to do with a high-growth company like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which makes all these wonderful GPUs helping to expand the data center and improve gaming? The visionary CEO Jensen Huang leads Nvidia today. Cisco had this guy John Chambers, a fantastic visionary in his own right.In reality, Nvidia today and its growth rates can't compare to Cisco. But at one point, Cisco was a blistering growth stock. Cisco's prospects were so significant that it was deemed on Feb. 13, 2000, in an LA Times story to be the first $1 trillion company. By some estimates, a dollar in 2000 is around $1.65 today. That would have made Cisco worth $1.65 trillion in today's dollar, or $1 trillion more than Nvidia today.There's a story here, and that story tells us that when optimism is high, expectations are massive. Human psychology plays an enormous part in stocks and how much investors are willing to pay for those future earnings potential. The psychological aspect of the relationship between Cisco and Nvidia is so interesting. In December, I pointed out the Nvidia of today was very much tracking the path of Cisco from 1998 through 2002.RefinitivI still track this relationship, and much to my surprise, the pattern has continued over the past four months. Not only has it continued, but it has been able to make nearly all the same twists and turns along the way.BloombergThis relationship comes to an inflection point very soon, where it will either continue to work or not. By my estimates, that inflection point is about 20 to 25 days away, where either Nvidia continues to be a stock that follows its own destiny or follows Cisco's steep decline into the middle of 2001.The relationship has nothing to do with either of these companies' fundamentals. Cisco doubled its revenue over the past 20 years, climbing to more than $50 billion per year. Meanwhile, the stock has never been able to climb back to those early century highs.BloombergHow much investors are willing to pay for Cisco's revenue stream has changed, going from an insanely high 60 times its trailing twelve-month sales to just four today. For Nvidia, its price to sales multiple has expanded too, rising to almost 34 at its peak and has fallen back to 23. It's where that ratio goes from here that will determine if Nvidia continues on the same path as Cisco or goes its own way.BloombergNvidia may double its revenue just like Cisco, and the stock price never rises back to all-time highs. It isn't to say that the stock won't go to new all-time highs either. The exercise tells us that it isn't always about the long-term fundamental outlook. It's more about the psychology of how much investors are willing to pay for a stock's future earnings or sales stream.Consider that Nvidia traded for a peak price to sales ratio on a TTM basis of 15 in 2017 and in the January-February time frame of 2020, just before the pandemic. But with the help of the Fed and its easy monetary policy, multiples for all stocks expanded. At its current 22.8, Nvidia's P/S ratio would need to fall 35% to get back to 15, which would knock the stock down to $160. For the stock to rise back to $245 or its current market cap of $615.4 billion, at a P/S ratio of 15, sales would need to climb $41.0 billion from the current fiscal year 2023 estimates of $34.9 billion and actual $26.9 billion in fiscal 2022. $41 billion is certainly an achievable number for Nvidia, but it could also suggest that Nvidia does a lot of nothing over the next couple of years as sales catch up with the stock price.The big question is where multiples will stand over the next year or two - will they rise and fall? It seems reasonable to think that if easy money ushers in multiple expansion, tighter monetary policy ushers in a period of multiple contraction. It could even send the stock's P/S ratio well below 15.What's clear is that Nvidia's current multiple is very elevated because optimism among investors still is high, maybe too high, and the path of the stock is likely to be more challenging from here than over the past two years.Which direction Nvidia ends up taking may or may not already be pre-determined. Only time will tell.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9012977145,"gmtCreate":1649285438201,"gmtModify":1676534482413,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wiped out the positive week in a flash..","listText":"Wiped out the positive week in a flash..","text":"Wiped out the positive week in a flash..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012977145","repostId":"1189033833","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189033833","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649257730,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189033833?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Stocks Dropped in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189033833","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Block, Marathon Digital, Riot Blockchain, Paypal and Coinbase fell between 2% and 8%.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>, Riot Blockchain, Paypal and Coinbase fell between 2% and 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1fc846eef0de7fb7dce8a5c410a9a6\" tg-width=\"432\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Stocks Dropped in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Stocks Dropped in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-06 23:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>, Riot Blockchain, Paypal and Coinbase fell between 2% and 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1fc846eef0de7fb7dce8a5c410a9a6\" tg-width=\"432\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4529":"IDC概念","PYPL":"PayPal","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","MARA":"MARA Holdings","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销","BK4084":"特种房地产投资信托","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189033833","content_text":"Block, Marathon Digital, Riot Blockchain, Paypal and Coinbase fell between 2% and 8%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"MARA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9012933171,"gmtCreate":1649260934675,"gmtModify":1676534480407,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>it's all like it was before again...","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$</a>it's all like it was before again...","text":"$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$it's all like it was before again...","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/357fa59ffaa94f12d7e8b9ff05849569","width":"1080","height":"2977"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012933171","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9018464607,"gmtCreate":1649080493251,"gmtModify":1676534446705,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>ahh today outta gas for now.. still a good buy i feel","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>ahh today outta gas for now.. still a good buy i feel","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ahh today outta gas for now.. still a good buy i feel","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4a0d3da2e17c9a4ba48063395c1e1fd5","width":"1080","height":"2977"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9018464607","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9011653229,"gmtCreate":1648863195812,"gmtModify":1676534413186,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>side ways is fine too..","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>side ways is fine too..","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$side ways is fine too..","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b8c7c7a2926c9dd9cf42306018e671a6","width":"1080","height":"3064"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9011653229","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035289052,"gmtCreate":1647610494657,"gmtModify":1676534250284,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>‌expecting a volatile day today...","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>‌expecting a volatile day today...","text":"‌$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$‌expecting a volatile day today...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035289052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095670866,"gmtCreate":1644911230993,"gmtModify":1676533974846,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Look at a growth tech stock in a wrong direction.. if the main business idea remains with the introduction of several potential upsides. PE ratio is not the only thing to value a stock at","listText":"Look at a growth tech stock in a wrong direction.. if the main business idea remains with the introduction of several potential upsides. PE ratio is not the only thing to value a stock at","text":"Look at a growth tech stock in a wrong direction.. if the main business idea remains with the introduction of several potential upsides. PE ratio is not the only thing to value a stock at","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095670866","repostId":"1167965219","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167965219","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644891156,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167965219?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-15 10:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Shares Face A Steep Drop Following Results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167965219","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia's stock is still very overvalued, trading at a steep price-to-sales multiple.It will t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Nvidia&#39;s stock is still very overvalued, trading at a steep price-to-sales multiple.</li><li>It will take a beat and raise a quarter of significance to boost the share price.</li><li>An options trader is betting shares trade sub $230 between now and the middle of March.</li></ul><p>Nvidia (NVDA) will report results on Wednesday after the close of trading. Analysts currently estimate that the company&#39;s fiscal fourth quarter 2022 earnings rose by 57.7% to $1.22 per share and are potentially as high as $1.25. Meanwhile, revenue is estimated to have grown 48.3% to $7.4 billion and could be as high as $7.6 billion. Gross margins are estimated at 67% and could be as high as 68%. Nvidia regularly beats estimates, so a beat is not surprising. The company will probably need to beat the high end of the range to move the stock up.</p><p>Nvidia is also a company that guides above street estimates. Currently, revenue is estimated at $7.28 billion and is seen as high as $7.6 billion. Gross margins are estimated at 67% and as high as 68.3%. A miss on estimates, whether it be on results or guidance, would be a devastating blow to the stock. Like the results themselves, guidance may need to exceed the high end of the range to satisfy investors mood given how expensive this stock is versus its historical trends to get shares moving higher again.</p><p>Nvidia Is Overvalued on Historical Basis</p><p>From 2017 until the end of 2019, Nvidia typically averaged a one-year forward price to sales multiple of nine, which peaked around 12-13 times sales. However, since the pandemic, the average has risen to 12, and the stock is now trading at 19 times 1-yr forward sales. At this point, the shares are trading at nearly double their pre-COVID historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2637f9011e57c72553aeda7d80565659\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datastream/ Mott Capital</p><p>Today Nvidia&#39;s revenue growth rate is not expected to be any faster than in 2018 and 2019, when it traded for between 10 and 12 times sales estimates. The question remains whether Nvidia&#39;s deal for ARM was the reason why Nvidia shares have seen so much multiple expansion, and if so, how much did the expectation of an ARM deal act as a growth accelerant, helping to push the multiple up. Because an ARM deal would have added to revenue projections in the future, ultimately making the revenue growth rate higher, even if for just a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76db14d83cadb4ea28249e708a1023b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datastream/ Mott Capital</p><p>If Nvidia fell back to its historic multiple, it would significantly drop the stock and greatly reduce the market cap. The market cap would drop to $386.1 billion, assuming a price to sales multiple of 12.2, a decline of about 35% from its current market cap of $598.7 billion. If it were to return to the historical average, not including the COVID bubble, the valuation would drop by 52.5% to $284.4 billion, using a multiple of 9. Yes, multiple expansion can significantly over-inflate a stock&#39;s value. Multiple compression would have nothing to do with future growth path either.</p><p>It&#39;s also possible to consider that Nvidia&#39;s future today is not all that different from where it stood in 2019 when the company was seeing data center sales ramp up along with solid gaming sales, and yes, even crypto-mining. Although all of this may seem like a new idea to some newer investors, and maybe they think they discovered something no one else did, they haven&#39;t. All of this growth potential was present as far back as 2018. One thing that may have changed is that the growth expectation of 2019 that was supposed to have occurred 3 to 5 years down the road got pulled forward. It could be one reason why Nvidia was eager to buy ARM, to help offset the organic sales slowdown from the pull forward of growth while taking advantage of its elevated stock price as currency.</p><p>Betting NVDA Shares Trade Below $230</p><p>It could even be why a trader is betting that Nvidia&#39;s stock falls in the weeks following the results. There has been a significant increase in the open interest of the March 18 $250 calls and puts. On February 14, the open interest for the calls increased by around 7,800 contracts, while the puts saw their open interest rise by more than 7,100 contracts. The data shows a bearish put favored spread was created with the trader buying the puts for around $20 while selling the calls for between $17 and $19.50 per contract. The trader expects the stock to stay below $230 by the middle of March to earn a profit. The further the stock falls below $230, the greater the profit. Meanwhile, the calls would expire at $0 since the shares stayed below $250.</p><p>Technical Weakness</p><p>The technical chart suggests this is highly possible, as the stock is trending lower in a channel. There is support at $230, but once that level breaks, the next support level doesn&#39;t come until $207, a region that has already been tested one time just over the last month. Additionally, the relative strength is trending lower, suggesting momentum in this stock is very bearish and not oversold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fbe13ef40ade52549cce694e281ee1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p>Look, this isn&#39;t to say that Nvidia is a lousy company or has no growth prospects. It has a very positive future, but this stock is currently highly overvalued and has seen a tremendous amount of multiple expansion. While this company can undoubtedly continue to grow and even beat and raise forecasts, it may not deliver fast enough growth to satisfy the multiple the market has awarded it with because the macro backdrop is going from a period of multiple expansion to multiple contraction as interest rates rise. If this company reports a stellar quarter and gives better than expected guidance and the shares still drop, it will be a big tell about the multiple being too high.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Shares Face A Steep Drop Following Results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Shares Face A Steep Drop Following Results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-15 10:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486815-nvidias-shares-may-faces-a-steep-drop-following-results><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia's stock is still very overvalued, trading at a steep price-to-sales multiple.It will take a beat and raise a quarter of significance to boost the share price.An options trader is betting...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486815-nvidias-shares-may-faces-a-steep-drop-following-results\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486815-nvidias-shares-may-faces-a-steep-drop-following-results","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167965219","content_text":"SummaryNvidia's stock is still very overvalued, trading at a steep price-to-sales multiple.It will take a beat and raise a quarter of significance to boost the share price.An options trader is betting shares trade sub $230 between now and the middle of March.Nvidia (NVDA) will report results on Wednesday after the close of trading. Analysts currently estimate that the company's fiscal fourth quarter 2022 earnings rose by 57.7% to $1.22 per share and are potentially as high as $1.25. Meanwhile, revenue is estimated to have grown 48.3% to $7.4 billion and could be as high as $7.6 billion. Gross margins are estimated at 67% and could be as high as 68%. Nvidia regularly beats estimates, so a beat is not surprising. The company will probably need to beat the high end of the range to move the stock up.Nvidia is also a company that guides above street estimates. Currently, revenue is estimated at $7.28 billion and is seen as high as $7.6 billion. Gross margins are estimated at 67% and as high as 68.3%. A miss on estimates, whether it be on results or guidance, would be a devastating blow to the stock. Like the results themselves, guidance may need to exceed the high end of the range to satisfy investors mood given how expensive this stock is versus its historical trends to get shares moving higher again.Nvidia Is Overvalued on Historical BasisFrom 2017 until the end of 2019, Nvidia typically averaged a one-year forward price to sales multiple of nine, which peaked around 12-13 times sales. However, since the pandemic, the average has risen to 12, and the stock is now trading at 19 times 1-yr forward sales. At this point, the shares are trading at nearly double their pre-COVID historical average.Datastream/ Mott CapitalToday Nvidia's revenue growth rate is not expected to be any faster than in 2018 and 2019, when it traded for between 10 and 12 times sales estimates. The question remains whether Nvidia's deal for ARM was the reason why Nvidia shares have seen so much multiple expansion, and if so, how much did the expectation of an ARM deal act as a growth accelerant, helping to push the multiple up. Because an ARM deal would have added to revenue projections in the future, ultimately making the revenue growth rate higher, even if for just a year.Datastream/ Mott CapitalIf Nvidia fell back to its historic multiple, it would significantly drop the stock and greatly reduce the market cap. The market cap would drop to $386.1 billion, assuming a price to sales multiple of 12.2, a decline of about 35% from its current market cap of $598.7 billion. If it were to return to the historical average, not including the COVID bubble, the valuation would drop by 52.5% to $284.4 billion, using a multiple of 9. Yes, multiple expansion can significantly over-inflate a stock's value. Multiple compression would have nothing to do with future growth path either.It's also possible to consider that Nvidia's future today is not all that different from where it stood in 2019 when the company was seeing data center sales ramp up along with solid gaming sales, and yes, even crypto-mining. Although all of this may seem like a new idea to some newer investors, and maybe they think they discovered something no one else did, they haven't. All of this growth potential was present as far back as 2018. One thing that may have changed is that the growth expectation of 2019 that was supposed to have occurred 3 to 5 years down the road got pulled forward. It could be one reason why Nvidia was eager to buy ARM, to help offset the organic sales slowdown from the pull forward of growth while taking advantage of its elevated stock price as currency.Betting NVDA Shares Trade Below $230It could even be why a trader is betting that Nvidia's stock falls in the weeks following the results. There has been a significant increase in the open interest of the March 18 $250 calls and puts. On February 14, the open interest for the calls increased by around 7,800 contracts, while the puts saw their open interest rise by more than 7,100 contracts. The data shows a bearish put favored spread was created with the trader buying the puts for around $20 while selling the calls for between $17 and $19.50 per contract. The trader expects the stock to stay below $230 by the middle of March to earn a profit. The further the stock falls below $230, the greater the profit. Meanwhile, the calls would expire at $0 since the shares stayed below $250.Technical WeaknessThe technical chart suggests this is highly possible, as the stock is trending lower in a channel. There is support at $230, but once that level breaks, the next support level doesn't come until $207, a region that has already been tested one time just over the last month. Additionally, the relative strength is trending lower, suggesting momentum in this stock is very bearish and not oversold.TradingViewLook, this isn't to say that Nvidia is a lousy company or has no growth prospects. It has a very positive future, but this stock is currently highly overvalued and has seen a tremendous amount of multiple expansion. While this company can undoubtedly continue to grow and even beat and raise forecasts, it may not deliver fast enough growth to satisfy the multiple the market has awarded it with because the macro backdrop is going from a period of multiple expansion to multiple contraction as interest rates rise. If this company reports a stellar quarter and gives better than expected guidance and the shares still drop, it will be a big tell about the multiple being too high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098130551,"gmtCreate":1644037694880,"gmtModify":1676533885309,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Somehow I still feel it has that growth potential out there and market sentiments for it is in its infancy stage","listText":"Somehow I still feel it has that growth potential out there and market sentiments for it is in its infancy stage","text":"Somehow I still feel it has that growth potential out there and market sentiments for it is in its infancy stage","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098130551","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196927717?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093436964,"gmtCreate":1643683511574,"gmtModify":1676533843845,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"One word.. volatility. Nothing's changed its just as it is..","listText":"One word.. volatility. Nothing's changed its just as it is..","text":"One word.. volatility. Nothing's changed its just as it is..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093436964","repostId":"2207382221","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2207382221","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1643674806,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2207382221?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-01 08:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Dropped Again Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2207382221","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Some real concerns are starting to get priced into these top tokens right now.","content":"<div>\n<p>What happenedVolatility has once again taken negative form in the crypto world today, with three of the most watched cryptocurrencies dipping once again to start the week. As of 8:30 a.m. ET, Bitcoin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/31/3-reasons-why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-solana-dropped/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Dropped Again Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Dropped Again Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-01 08:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/31/3-reasons-why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-solana-dropped/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happenedVolatility has once again taken negative form in the crypto world today, with three of the most watched cryptocurrencies dipping once again to start the week. As of 8:30 a.m. ET, Bitcoin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/31/3-reasons-why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-solana-dropped/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/31/3-reasons-why-bitcoin-ethereum-and-solana-dropped/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2207382221","content_text":"What happenedVolatility has once again taken negative form in the crypto world today, with three of the most watched cryptocurrencies dipping once again to start the week. As of 8:30 a.m. ET, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH), and Solana (CRYPTO:SOL) have each moved meaningfully lower, having dropped 2.3%, 2.8%, and 4.2%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.These moves appear to be a function of at least three core drivers today. Among the key factors many investors are watching is the directional volatility being priced into these tokens from the options market. Reports today suggest that Bitcoin's put-call premium, a measure of the excess price investors are willing to pay to hedge their Bitcoin exposure to the downside, has reached a fresh six-month high.Image source: Getty Images.This bearish view of top tokens such as Bitcoin has bled into a recent JP Morgan research note, suggesting institutional adoption of Bitcoin could be slowed by this \"excessive volatility.\" Additionally, of concern to analysts was Ethereum's declining market share in the decentralized finance (defi) and non-fungible token (NFT) spaces.Despite being one of the blockchain networks that's been grabbing market share away from Ethereum in these growth areas of the crypto world, Solana hasn't been without problems of late. It appears continued concern over recent network disruptions has investors continuing to trade the SOL token bearishly today.So whatOverall, the crypto sector can only be described as one that's under siege right now. The entire crypto market has shed approximately half of its valuation over the past 10 weeks, suggesting that what goes up quickly can come down just as fast.Options pricing and analyst notes on the crypto sector certainly provide an objective viewpoint for those attempting to gauge where crypto will go from here. Last year's impressive rally in most top cryptocurrencies has led to valuation concerns among some investors and an increasing willingness to take profits from others who may be longer-term investors. Investors are likely to watch these key factors closely.Now whatBitcoin's status as a store of value and a potential market hedge appears to be under siege, with market-related forces continuing to affect this top cryptocurrency in ways many investors thought wouldn't be possible.Market-related catalysts aside, some fundamental drivers underpinning the recent underperformance of Ethereum and Solana are also concerning to many investors. They're two of the top utility-generating tokens via their smart contract blockchain networks and growing ecosystems, and slowing growth is causing investors to question the investment thesis for these tokens.In totality, 2022 is shaping up to be a difficult year for crypto investors. Until the winds change, it appears investors may want to brace for more volatility ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COIN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093268286,"gmtCreate":1643641069989,"gmtModify":1676533839128,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"QR is doing well in terms of cargo space!","listText":"QR is doing well in terms of cargo space!","text":"QR is doing well in terms of cargo space!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093268286","repostId":"2207844773","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2207844773","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1643637609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2207844773?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-31 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing wins Qatar freighter deal to be signed on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2207844773","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Boeing Co    is set to sign a launch order from Qatar Airways for a n","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Boeing Co    is set to sign a launch order from Qatar Airways for a new freighter version of its 777X passenger jet on Monday, in a Washington ceremony coinciding with a visit by the Gulf state&#39;s ruling emir, U.S. officials said.</p><p>Reuters reported last week that the U.S. planemaker was in advanced negotiations with the Gulf carrier for around 34 of the planned twin-engined freighters in a deal provisionally estimated to be worth $14 billion at list prices.</p><p>Qatar Airways has publicly said it is interested in buying up to 50 new-generation freighters, with the higher figure expected to include options that could lead to top-up purchases in the future.</p><p>It may also bridge to the new cargo version of the upgraded 777X with a handful of extra current-generation 777 freighters.</p><p>The deal, which could effectively kickstart development of the new freighter, is expected to be signed at a White House ceremony at 12:30 pm local (1630 GMT), the officials said.</p><p>Boeing and Qatar Airways declined to comment.</p><p>The deal represents the first order for a freighter version of the world&#39;s largest twin-engined passenger plane, whose  entry to service has been pushed back by more than three years to late 2023 or beyond.</p><p>It comes as Qatar Airways is locked in a bitter dispute with Boeing&#39;s European rival Airbus    over surface flaws on competing A350 passenger jets.</p><p>The airline had excluded a new freighter version of the A350 from its cargo fleet renewal plans, citing the rift over the flaws to paint and lightning protection.</p><p>For Boeing, the deal marks a respite from the ongoing impact of a safety crisis over the 737 MAX and delays with the 777X passenger version and 787 Dreamliner production problems.</p><p>The amount of additional future revenue for Boeing from the deal would depend on discounts and how many of the freighters are converted from previous orders for 777X passenger versions. Airplanes typically sell for about half the list price.</p><p>Qatar is the second-largest customer for the world&#39;s largest twin-engined jetliner with a total of 60 of the 406-seat 777X passenger version on order.</p><p>Industry sources estimate that could fall by around a third in the wake of design delays and a drop in near-term demand for long-haul passenger jets, suggesting the number of new airframes resulting from the freighter order could be closer to 15.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing wins Qatar freighter deal to be signed on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing wins Qatar freighter deal to be signed on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-31 22:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Boeing Co    is set to sign a launch order from Qatar Airways for a new freighter version of its 777X passenger jet on Monday, in a Washington ceremony coinciding with a visit by the Gulf state&#39;s ruling emir, U.S. officials said.</p><p>Reuters reported last week that the U.S. planemaker was in advanced negotiations with the Gulf carrier for around 34 of the planned twin-engined freighters in a deal provisionally estimated to be worth $14 billion at list prices.</p><p>Qatar Airways has publicly said it is interested in buying up to 50 new-generation freighters, with the higher figure expected to include options that could lead to top-up purchases in the future.</p><p>It may also bridge to the new cargo version of the upgraded 777X with a handful of extra current-generation 777 freighters.</p><p>The deal, which could effectively kickstart development of the new freighter, is expected to be signed at a White House ceremony at 12:30 pm local (1630 GMT), the officials said.</p><p>Boeing and Qatar Airways declined to comment.</p><p>The deal represents the first order for a freighter version of the world&#39;s largest twin-engined passenger plane, whose  entry to service has been pushed back by more than three years to late 2023 or beyond.</p><p>It comes as Qatar Airways is locked in a bitter dispute with Boeing&#39;s European rival Airbus    over surface flaws on competing A350 passenger jets.</p><p>The airline had excluded a new freighter version of the A350 from its cargo fleet renewal plans, citing the rift over the flaws to paint and lightning protection.</p><p>For Boeing, the deal marks a respite from the ongoing impact of a safety crisis over the 737 MAX and delays with the 777X passenger version and 787 Dreamliner production problems.</p><p>The amount of additional future revenue for Boeing from the deal would depend on discounts and how many of the freighters are converted from previous orders for 777X passenger versions. Airplanes typically sell for about half the list price.</p><p>Qatar is the second-largest customer for the world&#39;s largest twin-engined jetliner with a total of 60 of the 406-seat 777X passenger version on order.</p><p>Industry sources estimate that could fall by around a third in the wake of design delays and a drop in near-term demand for long-haul passenger jets, suggesting the number of new airframes resulting from the freighter order could be closer to 15.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BA":"波音","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4187":"航天航空与国防"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2207844773","content_text":"WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Boeing Co    is set to sign a launch order from Qatar Airways for a new freighter version of its 777X passenger jet on Monday, in a Washington ceremony coinciding with a visit by the Gulf state's ruling emir, U.S. officials said.Reuters reported last week that the U.S. planemaker was in advanced negotiations with the Gulf carrier for around 34 of the planned twin-engined freighters in a deal provisionally estimated to be worth $14 billion at list prices.Qatar Airways has publicly said it is interested in buying up to 50 new-generation freighters, with the higher figure expected to include options that could lead to top-up purchases in the future.It may also bridge to the new cargo version of the upgraded 777X with a handful of extra current-generation 777 freighters.The deal, which could effectively kickstart development of the new freighter, is expected to be signed at a White House ceremony at 12:30 pm local (1630 GMT), the officials said.Boeing and Qatar Airways declined to comment.The deal represents the first order for a freighter version of the world's largest twin-engined passenger plane, whose  entry to service has been pushed back by more than three years to late 2023 or beyond.It comes as Qatar Airways is locked in a bitter dispute with Boeing's European rival Airbus    over surface flaws on competing A350 passenger jets.The airline had excluded a new freighter version of the A350 from its cargo fleet renewal plans, citing the rift over the flaws to paint and lightning protection.For Boeing, the deal marks a respite from the ongoing impact of a safety crisis over the 737 MAX and delays with the 777X passenger version and 787 Dreamliner production problems.The amount of additional future revenue for Boeing from the deal would depend on discounts and how many of the freighters are converted from previous orders for 777X passenger versions. Airplanes typically sell for about half the list price.Qatar is the second-largest customer for the world's largest twin-engined jetliner with a total of 60 of the 406-seat 777X passenger version on order.Industry sources estimate that could fall by around a third in the wake of design delays and a drop in near-term demand for long-haul passenger jets, suggesting the number of new airframes resulting from the freighter order could be closer to 15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9023427998,"gmtCreate":1652950967014,"gmtModify":1676535195091,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What drugs this guy on? I am not a tsla fan but the analysis is fundamentally flawed...","listText":"What drugs this guy on? I am not a tsla fan but the analysis is fundamentally flawed...","text":"What drugs this guy on? I am not a tsla fan but the analysis is fundamentally flawed...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9023427998","repostId":"1152395035","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9035289052,"gmtCreate":1647610494657,"gmtModify":1676534250284,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>‌expecting a volatile day today...","listText":"‌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>‌expecting a volatile day today...","text":"‌$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$‌expecting a volatile day today...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9035289052","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004437448,"gmtCreate":1642655524973,"gmtModify":1676533732931,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This analysis does not provide solid reasons to avoid... In fact if u research on your own... These are reasons u shld be buying....","listText":"This analysis does not provide solid reasons to avoid... In fact if u research on your own... These are reasons u shld be buying....","text":"This analysis does not provide solid reasons to avoid... In fact if u research on your own... These are reasons u shld be buying....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004437448","repostId":"2204056629","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2204056629","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642637895,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2204056629?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2204056629","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The stock has been a big winner over the past five years, but expectations are too high for this company going forward.","content":"<div>\n<p>Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla Is the One Stock I'd Avoid in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/19/why-tesla-is-the-one-stock-id-avoid-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2204056629","content_text":"Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock performance over the last decade has been nothing short of exceptional. Shares are up almost 23,000% in the last 10 years alone, making it one of the top-performing stocks in the market during that timespan. The company has scaled out its electric vehicle business, sports a market cap north of $1 trillion, and CEO Elon Musk is now the richest man in the world. Everything has come up in favor of Tesla recently. But for owners of the stock, the future does not look nearly as bright.Here's why Tesla is the one stock I'd avoid in 2022.Image source: Getty Images.Growth has been solidLet's start with what Tesla has done with its business over the last five years. It recently posted record car deliveries of 936,000 in 2021, up from a measly 30,000 in 2017. Revenue has followed suit. Trailing 12-month sales are up 448% in the last five years, as Tesla has scaled its manufacturing business around the globe. What's more, it has recently started to generate steady profits, putting up $4.45 billion in operating income over the last 12 months.The company should do over $50 billion in sales in 2021, and analysts expect revenue to get close to $100 billion in 2023. So why is Tesla stock one to avoid in 2022? Two reasons: the difficulty of manufacturing and the expectations embedded in the stock.Manufacturing is a difficult businessBending steel is difficult. Building and selling cars is difficult, and it costs a lot of money. Tesla (a car manufacturer) is not immune to these costs, and they will make it difficult for the company to return cash to shareholders over the long term -- which is how you accrue value as an owner of the stock. For example, over the last 12 months, Tesla has spent $7.3 billion on capital expenditures, which is only slightly lower than the $9.9 billion it generated in cash flow from operations.These numbers come out to a free cash flow of only $2.6 billion over the past 12 months. At a market cap of $1.05 trillion, that is a price-to-free-cash-flow (P/FCF) over 400. Even worse, Tesla has only generated this \"free cash flow\" because it has grown its accounts payable and accrued liabilities by $2.7 billion this year. This is money Tesla will have to pay to suppliers and employees eventually, making the $2.6 billion in cash it generated unavailable to return to shareholders.You might ask: Won't capex decrease once Tesla is done expanding its business? This is not likely. Toyota (NYSE:TM), the largest car manufacturer in the world, spent almost $35 billion on capital expenditures over the last 12 months, and it is growing capacity at a much slower rate than Tesla. If Tesla starts delivering more than 10 million vehicles a year (as Toyota did in 2019), it will have a perpetual need for capital investment, which will limit the amount of true free cash flow available to pay out to shareholders.Expectations are much too highGiven the difficult nature of an automotive manufacturing business, most of the sector's stocks trade at dirt-cheap earnings multiples. This will likely be true of Tesla at some point. Let's look at Toyota again as an example. The company, which did $281 billion in revenue over the past 12 months, generated $28.2 billion in net income. It has a market cap of $289 billion, or right around a price-to-earnings ratio of 10. It is so low because investors in the company understand that it will be difficult for excess cash to be paid out to them relative to its earning power.On the other hand, Tesla sports a market cap of $1.056 trillion and has a trailing net income of $3.47 billion. Could Tesla get to $28.2 billion in annual net income someday? Maybe. But as investors, you should understand that with a market cap more than three times the size of Toyota's, this is already priced into the stock.If you own Tesla right now, you should have a thesis on why it will be worth more than $1 trillion in the future, and likely $2 trillion a decade from now if you desire a decent compounded annual return. You might argue that Tesla is setting itself up to do that with autonomous driving, battery technology, and solar panels. However, these are all either small and capital-intensive businesses (solar and batteries) or speculative business plans with no line of sight to becoming commercially viable (autonomous driving). Will these segments help Tesla achieve positive returns over the next decade when it already has a market cap pricing in the dominance of the majority of the automotive sector?Tesla's market cap is much too high relative to the opportunity set in front of it and its current financial profile. For that reason, it is the one stock I'd avoid buying in 2022.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AONE.U":1,"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1302,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9062932959,"gmtCreate":1651985263871,"gmtModify":1676535009320,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The author really tried.","listText":"The author really tried.","text":"The author really tried.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9062932959","repostId":"1131831539","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9098130551,"gmtCreate":1644037694880,"gmtModify":1676533885309,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Somehow I still feel it has that growth potential out there and market sentiments for it is in its infancy stage","listText":"Somehow I still feel it has that growth potential out there and market sentiments for it is in its infancy stage","text":"Somehow I still feel it has that growth potential out there and market sentiments for it is in its infancy stage","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9098130551","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196927717?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9093268286,"gmtCreate":1643641069989,"gmtModify":1676533839128,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"QR is doing well in terms of cargo space!","listText":"QR is doing well in terms of cargo space!","text":"QR is doing well in terms of cargo space!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9093268286","repostId":"2207844773","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2207844773","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1643637609,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2207844773?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-31 22:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing wins Qatar freighter deal to be signed on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2207844773","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Boeing Co    is set to sign a launch order from Qatar Airways for a n","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Boeing Co    is set to sign a launch order from Qatar Airways for a new freighter version of its 777X passenger jet on Monday, in a Washington ceremony coinciding with a visit by the Gulf state&#39;s ruling emir, U.S. officials said.</p><p>Reuters reported last week that the U.S. planemaker was in advanced negotiations with the Gulf carrier for around 34 of the planned twin-engined freighters in a deal provisionally estimated to be worth $14 billion at list prices.</p><p>Qatar Airways has publicly said it is interested in buying up to 50 new-generation freighters, with the higher figure expected to include options that could lead to top-up purchases in the future.</p><p>It may also bridge to the new cargo version of the upgraded 777X with a handful of extra current-generation 777 freighters.</p><p>The deal, which could effectively kickstart development of the new freighter, is expected to be signed at a White House ceremony at 12:30 pm local (1630 GMT), the officials said.</p><p>Boeing and Qatar Airways declined to comment.</p><p>The deal represents the first order for a freighter version of the world&#39;s largest twin-engined passenger plane, whose  entry to service has been pushed back by more than three years to late 2023 or beyond.</p><p>It comes as Qatar Airways is locked in a bitter dispute with Boeing&#39;s European rival Airbus    over surface flaws on competing A350 passenger jets.</p><p>The airline had excluded a new freighter version of the A350 from its cargo fleet renewal plans, citing the rift over the flaws to paint and lightning protection.</p><p>For Boeing, the deal marks a respite from the ongoing impact of a safety crisis over the 737 MAX and delays with the 777X passenger version and 787 Dreamliner production problems.</p><p>The amount of additional future revenue for Boeing from the deal would depend on discounts and how many of the freighters are converted from previous orders for 777X passenger versions. Airplanes typically sell for about half the list price.</p><p>Qatar is the second-largest customer for the world&#39;s largest twin-engined jetliner with a total of 60 of the 406-seat 777X passenger version on order.</p><p>Industry sources estimate that could fall by around a third in the wake of design delays and a drop in near-term demand for long-haul passenger jets, suggesting the number of new airframes resulting from the freighter order could be closer to 15.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing wins Qatar freighter deal to be signed on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing wins Qatar freighter deal to be signed on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-31 22:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Boeing Co    is set to sign a launch order from Qatar Airways for a new freighter version of its 777X passenger jet on Monday, in a Washington ceremony coinciding with a visit by the Gulf state&#39;s ruling emir, U.S. officials said.</p><p>Reuters reported last week that the U.S. planemaker was in advanced negotiations with the Gulf carrier for around 34 of the planned twin-engined freighters in a deal provisionally estimated to be worth $14 billion at list prices.</p><p>Qatar Airways has publicly said it is interested in buying up to 50 new-generation freighters, with the higher figure expected to include options that could lead to top-up purchases in the future.</p><p>It may also bridge to the new cargo version of the upgraded 777X with a handful of extra current-generation 777 freighters.</p><p>The deal, which could effectively kickstart development of the new freighter, is expected to be signed at a White House ceremony at 12:30 pm local (1630 GMT), the officials said.</p><p>Boeing and Qatar Airways declined to comment.</p><p>The deal represents the first order for a freighter version of the world&#39;s largest twin-engined passenger plane, whose  entry to service has been pushed back by more than three years to late 2023 or beyond.</p><p>It comes as Qatar Airways is locked in a bitter dispute with Boeing&#39;s European rival Airbus    over surface flaws on competing A350 passenger jets.</p><p>The airline had excluded a new freighter version of the A350 from its cargo fleet renewal plans, citing the rift over the flaws to paint and lightning protection.</p><p>For Boeing, the deal marks a respite from the ongoing impact of a safety crisis over the 737 MAX and delays with the 777X passenger version and 787 Dreamliner production problems.</p><p>The amount of additional future revenue for Boeing from the deal would depend on discounts and how many of the freighters are converted from previous orders for 777X passenger versions. Airplanes typically sell for about half the list price.</p><p>Qatar is the second-largest customer for the world&#39;s largest twin-engined jetliner with a total of 60 of the 406-seat 777X passenger version on order.</p><p>Industry sources estimate that could fall by around a third in the wake of design delays and a drop in near-term demand for long-haul passenger jets, suggesting the number of new airframes resulting from the freighter order could be closer to 15.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BA":"波音","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4187":"航天航空与国防"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2207844773","content_text":"WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Boeing Co    is set to sign a launch order from Qatar Airways for a new freighter version of its 777X passenger jet on Monday, in a Washington ceremony coinciding with a visit by the Gulf state's ruling emir, U.S. officials said.Reuters reported last week that the U.S. planemaker was in advanced negotiations with the Gulf carrier for around 34 of the planned twin-engined freighters in a deal provisionally estimated to be worth $14 billion at list prices.Qatar Airways has publicly said it is interested in buying up to 50 new-generation freighters, with the higher figure expected to include options that could lead to top-up purchases in the future.It may also bridge to the new cargo version of the upgraded 777X with a handful of extra current-generation 777 freighters.The deal, which could effectively kickstart development of the new freighter, is expected to be signed at a White House ceremony at 12:30 pm local (1630 GMT), the officials said.Boeing and Qatar Airways declined to comment.The deal represents the first order for a freighter version of the world's largest twin-engined passenger plane, whose  entry to service has been pushed back by more than three years to late 2023 or beyond.It comes as Qatar Airways is locked in a bitter dispute with Boeing's European rival Airbus    over surface flaws on competing A350 passenger jets.The airline had excluded a new freighter version of the A350 from its cargo fleet renewal plans, citing the rift over the flaws to paint and lightning protection.For Boeing, the deal marks a respite from the ongoing impact of a safety crisis over the 737 MAX and delays with the 777X passenger version and 787 Dreamliner production problems.The amount of additional future revenue for Boeing from the deal would depend on discounts and how many of the freighters are converted from previous orders for 777X passenger versions. Airplanes typically sell for about half the list price.Qatar is the second-largest customer for the world's largest twin-engined jetliner with a total of 60 of the 406-seat 777X passenger version on order.Industry sources estimate that could fall by around a third in the wake of design delays and a drop in near-term demand for long-haul passenger jets, suggesting the number of new airframes resulting from the freighter order could be closer to 15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9014480716,"gmtCreate":1649695641294,"gmtModify":1676534552762,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>the most chill big cap with all the roller coaster happening","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>the most chill big cap with all the roller coaster happening","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$the most chill big cap with all the roller coaster happening","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f1530f62736fcfd7d35532deee2ea73b","width":"1080","height":"2977"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9014480716","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004429025,"gmtCreate":1642668789407,"gmtModify":1676533733830,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Limping on the call to hope for some good news.. a blast off to a new 2022","listText":"Limping on the call to hope for some good news.. a blast off to a new 2022","text":"Limping on the call to hope for some good news.. a blast off to a new 2022","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004429025","repostId":"2204499054","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2204499054","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642667311,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2204499054?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-20 16:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla earnings: News about the Cybertruck and new factories could set the tone for 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2204499054","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Elon Musk expected to return to the earnings call. Does that mean good news?The Tesla Cybertruck at ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Elon Musk expected to return to the earnings call. Does that mean good news?</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85248f0e05cae6b5d19251bc686448bc\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"439\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>The Tesla Cybertruck at its unveiling in November 2019. The electric pickup is a few years behind schedule.</span></p><p>Tesla Inc. is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings next Wednesday, with investors expecting a return of Chief Executive Elon Musk to the post-results call and bracing for what could be worrying news for the Cybertruck and supply-chain snags.</p><p>Musk told Wall Street last year he was unlikely to be on future Tesla earnings &#34;unless there&#39;s something important I need to say,&#34; and he was not on the EV maker&#39;s third-quarter call in October</p><p>The CEO tweeted in late November he&#39;d provide &#34;an updated product road map&#34; on the fourth-quarter call, prefacing that by calling 2021 the year of &#34;a supply chain nightmare &amp; it&#39;s not over!&#34;</p><p>There have been reports the Cybertruck, an unconventional-looking electric pickup truck unveiled in 2019, has been delayed.</p><p>The truck, Tesla&#39;s first foray into an auto-body style U.S. residents have favored for decades, was expected to start production this year and reach volume production in early 2023, which already would be a few years behind schedule and several months later than electric pickup trucks by General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and many other OEMs as well as newcomers such as Rivian Automotive Inc..</p><p>Tesla surprised Wall Street earlier this month with record fourth-quarter sales, which surged nearly 90% from the same period in 2020.</p><p>&#34;All signs point to another strong quarter for Tesla, which has put together an impressive streak of earnings beats (eight of the past nine quarters),&#34; CFRA analysts Garrett Nelson said.</p><p>The record quarterly production and sales give Tesla a &#34;significant bottom-line leverage given the high fixed cost nature of auto manufacturing,&#34; he said.</p><p>Focal points for earnings include Tesla&#39;s 2022 guidance, timelines for production ramp-ups at new factories going up in Texas and Germany, especially in the face of semiconductor shortages and supply-chain issues, and next steps in its long-term growth plan to increase annual production by a factor of 40 between 2020 and 2030, Nelson said.</p><p><b>Here&#39;s what to expect:</b></p><p><b>Earnings:</b> The FactSet consensus calls for Tesla to report adjusted per-share earnings of $2.25 for the quarter. That would compare with adjusted earnings of 80 cents a share in the fourth quarter of 2020.</p><p>Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others, is expecting an adjusted profit of $2.53 a share for Tesla.</p><p><b>Revenue:</b> The analysts polled by FactSet are calling for sales of $17.0 billion for Tesla, which would compare with $10.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020. Estimize is expecting $17.4 billion in revenue for the quarter.</p><p><b>Stock price: </b>Tesla shares kept up with the broader index, gaining 20% in the past 12 months compared with gains of around 21% for the S&amp;P 500 index.The stock has outperformed the index by a large margin in the past three months, however: a 17% advance compared with a 2% advance for the S&amp;P.</p><p><b>What else to expect: </b>Investors will be keen on hearing Tesla&#39;s 2022 guidance, even if the EV maker has chosen to provide scant specifics in its guidance.</p><p>Even without that &#34;direct guidance,&#34; Emmanuel Rosner at Deutsche Bank is expecting a &#34;positive update&#34; from Tesla on growth and margins potential for 2022, and &#34;on cadence of new product and technology.&#34;</p><p>Other potential highlights for the quarter include timing of the production ramp-up for Tesla&#39;s new factories in the Austin, Texas, area, and in Germany, and details about its alternative-energy business, the status of its in-house battery production, and sales in China.</p><p>With the two new factories coming on line, &#34;Tesla should theoretically have enough capacity to exceed&#34; production estimates, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said in a recent note. &#34;But China&#39;s &#39;zero COVID&#39; policy could threaten operations in Shanghai, so we&#39;re trying to keep a level head, he said.</p><p>Analyst Matthew Portillo at Tudor Pickering and Holt said he&#39;ll be paying close attention to news around the Tesla Megapack, the large-scale storage system the company launched in 2019.</p><p>Tesla&#39;s solar products remain &#34;challenged&#34; due to cost of installation, but Megapack &#34;continues to be a part of the portfolio that looks extremely interesting to us with utility-scale batteries being paramount to build-out of renewable capacity infrastructure globally,&#34; he said.</p><p>Demand for the product remains &#34;very robust given the backlog of orders with earliest deliveries (late 2022) stretches out for almost a year,&#34; he said.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla earnings: News about the Cybertruck and new factories could set the tone for 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla earnings: News about the Cybertruck and new factories could set the tone for 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 16:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-earnings-news-about-the-cybertruck-and-new-factories-could-set-the-tone-for-2022-11642618106?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Elon Musk expected to return to the earnings call. Does that mean good news?The Tesla Cybertruck at its unveiling in November 2019. The electric pickup is a few years behind schedule.Tesla Inc. is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-earnings-news-about-the-cybertruck-and-new-factories-could-set-the-tone-for-2022-11642618106?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-earnings-news-about-the-cybertruck-and-new-factories-could-set-the-tone-for-2022-11642618106?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2204499054","content_text":"Elon Musk expected to return to the earnings call. Does that mean good news?The Tesla Cybertruck at its unveiling in November 2019. The electric pickup is a few years behind schedule.Tesla Inc. is slated to report fourth-quarter earnings next Wednesday, with investors expecting a return of Chief Executive Elon Musk to the post-results call and bracing for what could be worrying news for the Cybertruck and supply-chain snags.Musk told Wall Street last year he was unlikely to be on future Tesla earnings \"unless there's something important I need to say,\" and he was not on the EV maker's third-quarter call in OctoberThe CEO tweeted in late November he'd provide \"an updated product road map\" on the fourth-quarter call, prefacing that by calling 2021 the year of \"a supply chain nightmare & it's not over!\"There have been reports the Cybertruck, an unconventional-looking electric pickup truck unveiled in 2019, has been delayed.The truck, Tesla's first foray into an auto-body style U.S. residents have favored for decades, was expected to start production this year and reach volume production in early 2023, which already would be a few years behind schedule and several months later than electric pickup trucks by General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and many other OEMs as well as newcomers such as Rivian Automotive Inc..Tesla surprised Wall Street earlier this month with record fourth-quarter sales, which surged nearly 90% from the same period in 2020.\"All signs point to another strong quarter for Tesla, which has put together an impressive streak of earnings beats (eight of the past nine quarters),\" CFRA analysts Garrett Nelson said.The record quarterly production and sales give Tesla a \"significant bottom-line leverage given the high fixed cost nature of auto manufacturing,\" he said.Focal points for earnings include Tesla's 2022 guidance, timelines for production ramp-ups at new factories going up in Texas and Germany, especially in the face of semiconductor shortages and supply-chain issues, and next steps in its long-term growth plan to increase annual production by a factor of 40 between 2020 and 2030, Nelson said.Here's what to expect:Earnings: The FactSet consensus calls for Tesla to report adjusted per-share earnings of $2.25 for the quarter. That would compare with adjusted earnings of 80 cents a share in the fourth quarter of 2020.Estimize, a crowdsourcing platform that gathers estimates from Wall Street analysts as well as buy-side analysts, fund managers, company executives, academics and others, is expecting an adjusted profit of $2.53 a share for Tesla.Revenue: The analysts polled by FactSet are calling for sales of $17.0 billion for Tesla, which would compare with $10.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2020. Estimize is expecting $17.4 billion in revenue for the quarter.Stock price: Tesla shares kept up with the broader index, gaining 20% in the past 12 months compared with gains of around 21% for the S&P 500 index.The stock has outperformed the index by a large margin in the past three months, however: a 17% advance compared with a 2% advance for the S&P.What else to expect: Investors will be keen on hearing Tesla's 2022 guidance, even if the EV maker has chosen to provide scant specifics in its guidance.Even without that \"direct guidance,\" Emmanuel Rosner at Deutsche Bank is expecting a \"positive update\" from Tesla on growth and margins potential for 2022, and \"on cadence of new product and technology.\"Other potential highlights for the quarter include timing of the production ramp-up for Tesla's new factories in the Austin, Texas, area, and in Germany, and details about its alternative-energy business, the status of its in-house battery production, and sales in China.With the two new factories coming on line, \"Tesla should theoretically have enough capacity to exceed\" production estimates, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said in a recent note. \"But China's 'zero COVID' policy could threaten operations in Shanghai, so we're trying to keep a level head, he said.Analyst Matthew Portillo at Tudor Pickering and Holt said he'll be paying close attention to news around the Tesla Megapack, the large-scale storage system the company launched in 2019.Tesla's solar products remain \"challenged\" due to cost of installation, but Megapack \"continues to be a part of the portfolio that looks extremely interesting to us with utility-scale batteries being paramount to build-out of renewable capacity infrastructure globally,\" he said.Demand for the product remains \"very robust given the backlog of orders with earliest deliveries (late 2022) stretches out for almost a year,\" he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9012977145,"gmtCreate":1649285438201,"gmtModify":1676534482413,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wiped out the positive week in a flash..","listText":"Wiped out the positive week in a flash..","text":"Wiped out the positive week in a flash..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9012977145","repostId":"1189033833","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189033833","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649257730,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1189033833?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-06 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto Stocks Dropped in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189033833","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Block, Marathon Digital, Riot Blockchain, Paypal and Coinbase fell between 2% and 8%.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>, Riot Blockchain, Paypal and Coinbase fell between 2% and 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1fc846eef0de7fb7dce8a5c410a9a6\" tg-width=\"432\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto Stocks Dropped in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto Stocks Dropped in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-06 23:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>, Riot Blockchain, Paypal and Coinbase fell between 2% and 8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc1fc846eef0de7fb7dce8a5c410a9a6\" tg-width=\"432\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4529":"IDC概念","PYPL":"PayPal","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4566":"资本集团","MARA":"MARA Holdings","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销","BK4084":"特种房地产投资信托","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4503":"景林资产持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189033833","content_text":"Block, Marathon Digital, Riot Blockchain, Paypal and Coinbase fell between 2% and 8%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"MARA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9095670866,"gmtCreate":1644911230993,"gmtModify":1676533974846,"author":{"id":"3583479467050598","authorId":"3583479467050598","name":"tomyummy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f3434b9393205e166c2f8facd9ca89","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583479467050598","authorIdStr":"3583479467050598"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Look at a growth tech stock in a wrong direction.. if the main business idea remains with the introduction of several potential upsides. PE ratio is not the only thing to value a stock at","listText":"Look at a growth tech stock in a wrong direction.. if the main business idea remains with the introduction of several potential upsides. PE ratio is not the only thing to value a stock at","text":"Look at a growth tech stock in a wrong direction.. if the main business idea remains with the introduction of several potential upsides. PE ratio is not the only thing to value a stock at","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095670866","repostId":"1167965219","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167965219","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644891156,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1167965219?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-15 10:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia's Shares Face A Steep Drop Following Results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167965219","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia's stock is still very overvalued, trading at a steep price-to-sales multiple.It will t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Nvidia&#39;s stock is still very overvalued, trading at a steep price-to-sales multiple.</li><li>It will take a beat and raise a quarter of significance to boost the share price.</li><li>An options trader is betting shares trade sub $230 between now and the middle of March.</li></ul><p>Nvidia (NVDA) will report results on Wednesday after the close of trading. Analysts currently estimate that the company&#39;s fiscal fourth quarter 2022 earnings rose by 57.7% to $1.22 per share and are potentially as high as $1.25. Meanwhile, revenue is estimated to have grown 48.3% to $7.4 billion and could be as high as $7.6 billion. Gross margins are estimated at 67% and could be as high as 68%. Nvidia regularly beats estimates, so a beat is not surprising. The company will probably need to beat the high end of the range to move the stock up.</p><p>Nvidia is also a company that guides above street estimates. Currently, revenue is estimated at $7.28 billion and is seen as high as $7.6 billion. Gross margins are estimated at 67% and as high as 68.3%. A miss on estimates, whether it be on results or guidance, would be a devastating blow to the stock. Like the results themselves, guidance may need to exceed the high end of the range to satisfy investors mood given how expensive this stock is versus its historical trends to get shares moving higher again.</p><p>Nvidia Is Overvalued on Historical Basis</p><p>From 2017 until the end of 2019, Nvidia typically averaged a one-year forward price to sales multiple of nine, which peaked around 12-13 times sales. However, since the pandemic, the average has risen to 12, and the stock is now trading at 19 times 1-yr forward sales. At this point, the shares are trading at nearly double their pre-COVID historical average.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2637f9011e57c72553aeda7d80565659\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datastream/ Mott Capital</p><p>Today Nvidia&#39;s revenue growth rate is not expected to be any faster than in 2018 and 2019, when it traded for between 10 and 12 times sales estimates. The question remains whether Nvidia&#39;s deal for ARM was the reason why Nvidia shares have seen so much multiple expansion, and if so, how much did the expectation of an ARM deal act as a growth accelerant, helping to push the multiple up. Because an ARM deal would have added to revenue projections in the future, ultimately making the revenue growth rate higher, even if for just a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76db14d83cadb4ea28249e708a1023b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Datastream/ Mott Capital</p><p>If Nvidia fell back to its historic multiple, it would significantly drop the stock and greatly reduce the market cap. The market cap would drop to $386.1 billion, assuming a price to sales multiple of 12.2, a decline of about 35% from its current market cap of $598.7 billion. If it were to return to the historical average, not including the COVID bubble, the valuation would drop by 52.5% to $284.4 billion, using a multiple of 9. Yes, multiple expansion can significantly over-inflate a stock&#39;s value. Multiple compression would have nothing to do with future growth path either.</p><p>It&#39;s also possible to consider that Nvidia&#39;s future today is not all that different from where it stood in 2019 when the company was seeing data center sales ramp up along with solid gaming sales, and yes, even crypto-mining. Although all of this may seem like a new idea to some newer investors, and maybe they think they discovered something no one else did, they haven&#39;t. All of this growth potential was present as far back as 2018. One thing that may have changed is that the growth expectation of 2019 that was supposed to have occurred 3 to 5 years down the road got pulled forward. It could be one reason why Nvidia was eager to buy ARM, to help offset the organic sales slowdown from the pull forward of growth while taking advantage of its elevated stock price as currency.</p><p>Betting NVDA Shares Trade Below $230</p><p>It could even be why a trader is betting that Nvidia&#39;s stock falls in the weeks following the results. There has been a significant increase in the open interest of the March 18 $250 calls and puts. On February 14, the open interest for the calls increased by around 7,800 contracts, while the puts saw their open interest rise by more than 7,100 contracts. The data shows a bearish put favored spread was created with the trader buying the puts for around $20 while selling the calls for between $17 and $19.50 per contract. The trader expects the stock to stay below $230 by the middle of March to earn a profit. The further the stock falls below $230, the greater the profit. Meanwhile, the calls would expire at $0 since the shares stayed below $250.</p><p>Technical Weakness</p><p>The technical chart suggests this is highly possible, as the stock is trending lower in a channel. There is support at $230, but once that level breaks, the next support level doesn&#39;t come until $207, a region that has already been tested one time just over the last month. Additionally, the relative strength is trending lower, suggesting momentum in this stock is very bearish and not oversold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89fbe13ef40ade52549cce694e281ee1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>TradingView</p><p>Look, this isn&#39;t to say that Nvidia is a lousy company or has no growth prospects. It has a very positive future, but this stock is currently highly overvalued and has seen a tremendous amount of multiple expansion. While this company can undoubtedly continue to grow and even beat and raise forecasts, it may not deliver fast enough growth to satisfy the multiple the market has awarded it with because the macro backdrop is going from a period of multiple expansion to multiple contraction as interest rates rise. If this company reports a stellar quarter and gives better than expected guidance and the shares still drop, it will be a big tell about the multiple being too high.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia's Shares Face A Steep Drop Following Results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia's Shares Face A Steep Drop Following Results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-15 10:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486815-nvidias-shares-may-faces-a-steep-drop-following-results><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia's stock is still very overvalued, trading at a steep price-to-sales multiple.It will take a beat and raise a quarter of significance to boost the share price.An options trader is betting...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486815-nvidias-shares-may-faces-a-steep-drop-following-results\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4486815-nvidias-shares-may-faces-a-steep-drop-following-results","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167965219","content_text":"SummaryNvidia's stock is still very overvalued, trading at a steep price-to-sales multiple.It will take a beat and raise a quarter of significance to boost the share price.An options trader is betting shares trade sub $230 between now and the middle of March.Nvidia (NVDA) will report results on Wednesday after the close of trading. Analysts currently estimate that the company's fiscal fourth quarter 2022 earnings rose by 57.7% to $1.22 per share and are potentially as high as $1.25. Meanwhile, revenue is estimated to have grown 48.3% to $7.4 billion and could be as high as $7.6 billion. Gross margins are estimated at 67% and could be as high as 68%. Nvidia regularly beats estimates, so a beat is not surprising. The company will probably need to beat the high end of the range to move the stock up.Nvidia is also a company that guides above street estimates. Currently, revenue is estimated at $7.28 billion and is seen as high as $7.6 billion. Gross margins are estimated at 67% and as high as 68.3%. A miss on estimates, whether it be on results or guidance, would be a devastating blow to the stock. Like the results themselves, guidance may need to exceed the high end of the range to satisfy investors mood given how expensive this stock is versus its historical trends to get shares moving higher again.Nvidia Is Overvalued on Historical BasisFrom 2017 until the end of 2019, Nvidia typically averaged a one-year forward price to sales multiple of nine, which peaked around 12-13 times sales. However, since the pandemic, the average has risen to 12, and the stock is now trading at 19 times 1-yr forward sales. At this point, the shares are trading at nearly double their pre-COVID historical average.Datastream/ Mott CapitalToday Nvidia's revenue growth rate is not expected to be any faster than in 2018 and 2019, when it traded for between 10 and 12 times sales estimates. The question remains whether Nvidia's deal for ARM was the reason why Nvidia shares have seen so much multiple expansion, and if so, how much did the expectation of an ARM deal act as a growth accelerant, helping to push the multiple up. Because an ARM deal would have added to revenue projections in the future, ultimately making the revenue growth rate higher, even if for just a year.Datastream/ Mott CapitalIf Nvidia fell back to its historic multiple, it would significantly drop the stock and greatly reduce the market cap. The market cap would drop to $386.1 billion, assuming a price to sales multiple of 12.2, a decline of about 35% from its current market cap of $598.7 billion. If it were to return to the historical average, not including the COVID bubble, the valuation would drop by 52.5% to $284.4 billion, using a multiple of 9. Yes, multiple expansion can significantly over-inflate a stock's value. Multiple compression would have nothing to do with future growth path either.It's also possible to consider that Nvidia's future today is not all that different from where it stood in 2019 when the company was seeing data center sales ramp up along with solid gaming sales, and yes, even crypto-mining. Although all of this may seem like a new idea to some newer investors, and maybe they think they discovered something no one else did, they haven't. All of this growth potential was present as far back as 2018. One thing that may have changed is that the growth expectation of 2019 that was supposed to have occurred 3 to 5 years down the road got pulled forward. It could be one reason why Nvidia was eager to buy ARM, to help offset the organic sales slowdown from the pull forward of growth while taking advantage of its elevated stock price as currency.Betting NVDA Shares Trade Below $230It could even be why a trader is betting that Nvidia's stock falls in the weeks following the results. There has been a significant increase in the open interest of the March 18 $250 calls and puts. On February 14, the open interest for the calls increased by around 7,800 contracts, while the puts saw their open interest rise by more than 7,100 contracts. The data shows a bearish put favored spread was created with the trader buying the puts for around $20 while selling the calls for between $17 and $19.50 per contract. The trader expects the stock to stay below $230 by the middle of March to earn a profit. The further the stock falls below $230, the greater the profit. Meanwhile, the calls would expire at $0 since the shares stayed below $250.Technical WeaknessThe technical chart suggests this is highly possible, as the stock is trending lower in a channel. There is support at $230, but once that level breaks, the next support level doesn't come until $207, a region that has already been tested one time just over the last month. Additionally, the relative strength is trending lower, suggesting momentum in this stock is very bearish and not oversold.TradingViewLook, this isn't to say that Nvidia is a lousy company or has no growth prospects. It has a very positive future, but this stock is currently highly overvalued and has seen a tremendous amount of multiple expansion. While this company can undoubtedly continue to grow and even beat and raise forecasts, it may not deliver fast enough growth to satisfy the multiple the market has awarded it with because the macro backdrop is going from a period of multiple expansion to multiple contraction as interest rates rise. If this company reports a stellar quarter and gives better than expected guidance and the shares still drop, it will be a big tell about the multiple being too high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}