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ASYJ

ASYJ

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2021-06-20

Nice

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2021-06-19

Surely

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2021-06-26

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$cool

2021-06-24

Interesting

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2021-06-19

Cool

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2021-06-17

Interesting

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2021-06-29

$Vertex(VTNR)$Keep going

2021-06-28

$Vertex(VTNR)$nice

2021-06-25

Nice

NIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential

2021-06-21

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2021-06-20

Wao

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2021-06-20

$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$???

2021-06-19

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ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential

2021-06-18

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Fisker Jumps on EV-Production Pact With Magna International

2021-06-16

??

Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers

2021-06-30

$Vertex(VTNR)$Nice

2021-06-23

Cool

Plug Power moves higher following mixed Q1 results

2021-06-22

Interesting

Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher

2021-06-19

$Apple(AAPL)$??

2021-06-18

Nice

1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple

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Inc.(XPEV)$cool","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/287d83eba3587afe37dfe17a82652afc","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/125568698","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":122571808,"gmtCreate":1624628986904,"gmtModify":1703842163140,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/122571808","repostId":"1198714523","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198714523","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624611463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198714523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-25 16:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198714523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.Still, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla .Tes","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is already well over a 10-bagger.</li>\n <li>Tesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.</li>\n <li>There are many EV competitors, but NIO has a proven track record of growth and innovation with international expansion, ADAS, autonomous driving and ADaaS, and battery swapping and BaaS.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO(NYSE:NIO)was far from the largest holding in my portfolio, but has grown well over 10x since the midst of its funding issues in late 2019. This was driven by a strong post-COVID-19 rebound and further growth of its EV sales. Further optionality was introduced with capacity expansion, the new, innovative BaaS business model, and potential international expansion to Europe.</p>\n<p>Still, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>Tesla stock had a similar success in 2020, which was capped off by its introduction in the S&amp;P 500. This arguably supports the view that EVs are, in fact, not a bubble. NIO, in that regard, should be regarded as the Chinese Tesla, and hence poised for further growth. China is also poised to become the silicon valley of EVs and also has supportive regulation towards autonomous driving.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, there are many competitors in EVs, not the least in China as well (also from Tesla). However, NIO is still one of the leading start-ups positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, with its proven track record of innovation and growth.</p>\n<p><b>Automotive disruption</b></p>\n<p>The automotive industry is undergoing major changes. The first major trend is towards energy sustainability. This has fueled the growth of EVs. Secondly, there is a strong economic incentive towards autonomous driving (called the \"passenger economy\"), which will further revolutionize transportation.</p>\n<p>This means this industry is open for disruption. This is indeed already unfolding, as can be seen in the trajectory of Tesla through the last decade, as one of the hallmarks of this.</p>\n<p>Even though it is an old, capital intensive business, Tesla proves that investors are willing to pay up to be part of this revolution. As noted, Tesla capped this off by its S&amp;P 500 inclusion and 500k deliveries in 2020, with continued strong growth at scale into 2021.</p>\n<p>In short, even though it could be seen as an old business, there is a large, greenfield opportunity in the drive towards electric, autonomous transportation. Hence, to be leading this disruption requires innovation.</p>\n<p><b>NIO: Chinese Tesla</b></p>\n<p>This opportunity is arguably so large that there does not necessarily have to be a winner-takes-all. Automotive is such a large market that it could be likened to e-commerce, for example. Amazon (AMZN) has been one of the largest beneficiaries of this secular growth trend. However, there are many others who have achieved a large scale and valuation growth, including Alibaba (BABA) and MercadoLibre (MELI).</p>\n<p>To that end, NIO is positioned to become in EVs and AVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce: the Chinese Tesla.</p>\n<p>NIO is a relatively young start-up, founded on the same premise of being a pure play EV automotive company, while also investing to be at forefront of ADAS and autonomous driving. It had a strong partnership with Mobileye. It was the first adopter of the former's EyeQ4 chip in 2018. NIO was also announced to be the first adopter of Mobileye's self-driving system, in 2022. This would likely be several years ahead of others, as Mobileye is targeting a 2025 introduction of (a broader introduction of) consumer AVs.</p>\n<p>It is, however, not entirely sure if (and perhaps even unlikely that) this Mobileye-powered autonomous vehicle will still launch, as going forward NIO is continuing with Nvidia (NVDA) hardware and developing its own software. In any case, NIO's timeline is unchanged, although it is not sure if NIO's own software will be as capable as Mobileye's. I previously covered this aspect of NIO here:NIO Stock: Autonomous Driving Too Good To Be True.</p>\n<p>In any case, NIO will bring another first to market with its Autonomous Driving-as-a-Service model or ADaaS. This will provide customer access to its autonomous driving capabilities through a monthly subscription.</p>\n<p>While there had been some funding issues and a slowdown in the midst of COVID-19, the image below shows that growth returned quickly. More recently, there have been issues due to the chip shortage, but those are obviously quite similar for the whole industry.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1373049969409b7fa8a90c380b6204e0\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NIO's track record of growth and innovation is further completed by its introduction of the BaaS business model and plans for international expansion to Europe in 2021.</p>\n<p>BaaS or Battery-as-a-Service means that the EV is bought without the battery, which reduces the upfront price. The battery is then acquired separately through a subscription. BaaS was introduced in the second half of 2020 and quickly achieved a significant uptake of ~40%. BaaS also further complements NIO's previous innovation of battery swapping.</p>\n<p>Hence, this shows NIO is a leading innovator in the Chinese EV market, while investing to also lead the second, autonomous inflection. This is also a major market, as China is targeting a 25% EV market share by 2025. It could quickly become the silicon valley of EVs and even AVs. NIO's international ambition further underlines its leading position.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Some have called EVs a bubble. Both Tesla and NIO stock were on the order of a 10-bagger in 2020. In the comments below many articles, Tesla's valuation and deliveries are compared to the traditional OEMs. Supposedly this should show the large discrepancy in valuation.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, arguably this is not a bubble as the transition to EVs and subsequently AVs marks a major inflection. This means it is a large, largely greenfield growth opportunity. Hence, investors are willing to pay for this growth by investing in the companies who are leading. Moreover, EVs and AVs are also much closer aligned to tech investing, where higher valuations are more common.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, in spite of automotive being notorious for its capital intensity. NIO for its part (partly) solves this by not producing its vehicles itself, but partnering for manufacturing.</p>\n<p>There are other examples in tech where those who are seen as growth companies are rewarded with incredible valuations. For example, Nvidia has achieved almost 2x the valuation of Intel (INTC), despite over 3x lower revenue. TSMC (TSM) has over 2x the valuation of Intel despite almost 2x lower revenue. Of course, Nvidia and TSMC are growing faster than Intel, but that proves the point that high growth is often rewarded with perhaps unrealistic valuations.</p>\n<p>With regards to NIO's valuation, it (still) has ~10x lower market cap than Tesla (to be precise, about 8x at the time of writing), but also ~10x lower deliveries. Hence, NIO's valuation is in line with its bigger peer.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, as a smaller company, it is arguably NIO who that the largest relative growth prospects ahead. For example, Tesla investors who want to see substantial shareholder returns going forward have to bank on Tesla's goal to achieve 20M deliveries by 2030, which would be over a fifth of the total global vehicle market.</p>\n<p>If NIO for its part would be able to translate its innovation into continued, sustained growth, similar to Tesla, then there should be no reason for NIO to not continue to track the valuation of Tesla. This means NIO, indeed, may have another 10x upside or so if it closes the gap to Tesla in scale.</p>\n<p>From that view, NIO is lagging behind Tesla by multiple years, in both deliveries and market cap. The last comment could be as analogous to for examplePinterest(PINS), which is a company Iarguedwas lagging by several years to Facebook (FB).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Of course, there are major risks. Mainly, this thesis is based on two assumptions:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla and other EV/AV stocks will continue to grow and receive elevated valuations as these trends continue to unfold;</li>\n <li>NIO is best positioned to most closely track Tesla's business and stock performance.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Any decrease in (relative) valuation could result in downside. For example, Tesla's ambition as laid out at its fall 2020 Battery Day event called for Tesla to achieve a scale of 20 million units by 2030. Hence, it is likely at least some part of that ambition for further growth is already priced into the stock.</p>\n<p>Needless to say, not every automotive or EV company will be able to achieve a scale of 20M units, as the global automotive market is below 100M units. There is both competition from traditional OEMs such as GM (GM) and Volkswagen, as well as other Chinese companiessuch as XPeng(XPEV).</p>\n<p>Additionally, although China seems to be one the largest markets for EVs in the near future, Tesla itself has already built its own Gigafactory in China, further increasing competition. Although the reverse is also partly true given NIO's own international expansion.</p>\n<p>The last risk for NIO growth it that is has expressed that it wants to remain a premium brand with relatively high ASPs (average selling prices). While this implies NIO could have above-average gross margins, it may nevertheless lower NIO's addressable market and hence potential future growth.</p>\n<p>Further, while NIO is heavily investing in autonomous driving and seems to be at the forefront of this next major inflection, it is ultimately reliant on third-party silicon vendors like Nvidia. This insight means pretty much by definition that AV technology may not remain a differentiated capability, as others will be able to buy the same off-the-shelf systems. Although as noted NIO is developing its own software, that itselfis also a riskgiven the difficulty in creating a scalable and reliable AV system.</p>\n<p>As described, though, NIO is a clear, leading innovator, and has achieved a strong brand value. This arguably makes it the strongest candidate to become the closest to a 'Chinese Tesla'.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>In the last 18 months or so, there has been a major shift in investment sentiment around EV companies. Tesla has seen 10-bagger returns. So when evaluating NIO, after its own 10-bagger returns (or more), to a valuation closer to $100B than $10B, on the surface this may change the investment narrative.</p>\n<p>However, at least a portion of NIO's large shareholder returns was because of its financial issues, which it has overcome; NIO's valuation is not significantly different from Tesla, for one. Meanwhile, its still much lower scale arguably leaves much room for upside.</p>\n<p>NIO's stock is based on NIO's growth to capitalize on the two-fold disruption of EVs and AVs in the automotive industry. NIO already has a proven track record of growth and innovation with battery swap, ADAS, autonomous driving (although with some increased risks given its change of supplier), ADaaS, BaaS, and even international expansion.</p>\n<p>While far from every company will be able to achieve a similar scale as Tesla, NIO clearly remains positioned to be successful in this space, which represents a large, greenfield opportunity in both the Chinese and international push towards electric and autonomous driving.</p>\n<p>This means NIO's valuation is both the risk and the reward. The reward is that NIO could realistically still expand by another 10x if it continues to trade at a similar valuation as Tesla, while closing the gap in scale. I likened NIO to the Alibaba of EVs: the Chinese counterpart of Amazon in EVs. The risk is NIO's ability to execute and deliver on its growth opportunity, as well as (just as importantly) as Tesla's and other EV stocks' valuation not collapsing on changes in investor sentiment.</p>\n<p>The bottom line (since NIO's peak in February) is that the potential opportunity that still lies ahead slightly outweighs the risk.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-25 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is already well over a 10-bagger.\nTesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1198714523","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is already well over a 10-bagger.\nTesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.\nThere are many EV competitors, but NIO has a proven track record of growth and innovation with international expansion, ADAS, autonomous driving and ADaaS, and battery swapping and BaaS.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nNIO(NYSE:NIO)was far from the largest holding in my portfolio, but has grown well over 10x since the midst of its funding issues in late 2019. This was driven by a strong post-COVID-19 rebound and further growth of its EV sales. Further optionality was introduced with capacity expansion, the new, innovative BaaS business model, and potential international expansion to Europe.\nStill, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla (TSLA).\nTesla stock had a similar success in 2020, which was capped off by its introduction in the S&P 500. This arguably supports the view that EVs are, in fact, not a bubble. NIO, in that regard, should be regarded as the Chinese Tesla, and hence poised for further growth. China is also poised to become the silicon valley of EVs and also has supportive regulation towards autonomous driving.\nNevertheless, there are many competitors in EVs, not the least in China as well (also from Tesla). However, NIO is still one of the leading start-ups positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, with its proven track record of innovation and growth.\nAutomotive disruption\nThe automotive industry is undergoing major changes. The first major trend is towards energy sustainability. This has fueled the growth of EVs. Secondly, there is a strong economic incentive towards autonomous driving (called the \"passenger economy\"), which will further revolutionize transportation.\nThis means this industry is open for disruption. This is indeed already unfolding, as can be seen in the trajectory of Tesla through the last decade, as one of the hallmarks of this.\nEven though it is an old, capital intensive business, Tesla proves that investors are willing to pay up to be part of this revolution. As noted, Tesla capped this off by its S&P 500 inclusion and 500k deliveries in 2020, with continued strong growth at scale into 2021.\nIn short, even though it could be seen as an old business, there is a large, greenfield opportunity in the drive towards electric, autonomous transportation. Hence, to be leading this disruption requires innovation.\nNIO: Chinese Tesla\nThis opportunity is arguably so large that there does not necessarily have to be a winner-takes-all. Automotive is such a large market that it could be likened to e-commerce, for example. Amazon (AMZN) has been one of the largest beneficiaries of this secular growth trend. However, there are many others who have achieved a large scale and valuation growth, including Alibaba (BABA) and MercadoLibre (MELI).\nTo that end, NIO is positioned to become in EVs and AVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce: the Chinese Tesla.\nNIO is a relatively young start-up, founded on the same premise of being a pure play EV automotive company, while also investing to be at forefront of ADAS and autonomous driving. It had a strong partnership with Mobileye. It was the first adopter of the former's EyeQ4 chip in 2018. NIO was also announced to be the first adopter of Mobileye's self-driving system, in 2022. This would likely be several years ahead of others, as Mobileye is targeting a 2025 introduction of (a broader introduction of) consumer AVs.\nIt is, however, not entirely sure if (and perhaps even unlikely that) this Mobileye-powered autonomous vehicle will still launch, as going forward NIO is continuing with Nvidia (NVDA) hardware and developing its own software. In any case, NIO's timeline is unchanged, although it is not sure if NIO's own software will be as capable as Mobileye's. I previously covered this aspect of NIO here:NIO Stock: Autonomous Driving Too Good To Be True.\nIn any case, NIO will bring another first to market with its Autonomous Driving-as-a-Service model or ADaaS. This will provide customer access to its autonomous driving capabilities through a monthly subscription.\nWhile there had been some funding issues and a slowdown in the midst of COVID-19, the image below shows that growth returned quickly. More recently, there have been issues due to the chip shortage, but those are obviously quite similar for the whole industry.\n\nNIO's track record of growth and innovation is further completed by its introduction of the BaaS business model and plans for international expansion to Europe in 2021.\nBaaS or Battery-as-a-Service means that the EV is bought without the battery, which reduces the upfront price. The battery is then acquired separately through a subscription. BaaS was introduced in the second half of 2020 and quickly achieved a significant uptake of ~40%. BaaS also further complements NIO's previous innovation of battery swapping.\nHence, this shows NIO is a leading innovator in the Chinese EV market, while investing to also lead the second, autonomous inflection. This is also a major market, as China is targeting a 25% EV market share by 2025. It could quickly become the silicon valley of EVs and even AVs. NIO's international ambition further underlines its leading position.\nValuation\nSome have called EVs a bubble. Both Tesla and NIO stock were on the order of a 10-bagger in 2020. In the comments below many articles, Tesla's valuation and deliveries are compared to the traditional OEMs. Supposedly this should show the large discrepancy in valuation.\nNevertheless, arguably this is not a bubble as the transition to EVs and subsequently AVs marks a major inflection. This means it is a large, largely greenfield growth opportunity. Hence, investors are willing to pay for this growth by investing in the companies who are leading. Moreover, EVs and AVs are also much closer aligned to tech investing, where higher valuations are more common.\nThis is, of course, in spite of automotive being notorious for its capital intensity. NIO for its part (partly) solves this by not producing its vehicles itself, but partnering for manufacturing.\nThere are other examples in tech where those who are seen as growth companies are rewarded with incredible valuations. For example, Nvidia has achieved almost 2x the valuation of Intel (INTC), despite over 3x lower revenue. TSMC (TSM) has over 2x the valuation of Intel despite almost 2x lower revenue. Of course, Nvidia and TSMC are growing faster than Intel, but that proves the point that high growth is often rewarded with perhaps unrealistic valuations.\nWith regards to NIO's valuation, it (still) has ~10x lower market cap than Tesla (to be precise, about 8x at the time of writing), but also ~10x lower deliveries. Hence, NIO's valuation is in line with its bigger peer.\nNevertheless, as a smaller company, it is arguably NIO who that the largest relative growth prospects ahead. For example, Tesla investors who want to see substantial shareholder returns going forward have to bank on Tesla's goal to achieve 20M deliveries by 2030, which would be over a fifth of the total global vehicle market.\nIf NIO for its part would be able to translate its innovation into continued, sustained growth, similar to Tesla, then there should be no reason for NIO to not continue to track the valuation of Tesla. This means NIO, indeed, may have another 10x upside or so if it closes the gap to Tesla in scale.\nFrom that view, NIO is lagging behind Tesla by multiple years, in both deliveries and market cap. The last comment could be as analogous to for examplePinterest(PINS), which is a company Iarguedwas lagging by several years to Facebook (FB).\nRisks\nOf course, there are major risks. Mainly, this thesis is based on two assumptions:\n\nTesla and other EV/AV stocks will continue to grow and receive elevated valuations as these trends continue to unfold;\nNIO is best positioned to most closely track Tesla's business and stock performance.\n\nAny decrease in (relative) valuation could result in downside. For example, Tesla's ambition as laid out at its fall 2020 Battery Day event called for Tesla to achieve a scale of 20 million units by 2030. Hence, it is likely at least some part of that ambition for further growth is already priced into the stock.\nNeedless to say, not every automotive or EV company will be able to achieve a scale of 20M units, as the global automotive market is below 100M units. There is both competition from traditional OEMs such as GM (GM) and Volkswagen, as well as other Chinese companiessuch as XPeng(XPEV).\nAdditionally, although China seems to be one the largest markets for EVs in the near future, Tesla itself has already built its own Gigafactory in China, further increasing competition. Although the reverse is also partly true given NIO's own international expansion.\nThe last risk for NIO growth it that is has expressed that it wants to remain a premium brand with relatively high ASPs (average selling prices). While this implies NIO could have above-average gross margins, it may nevertheless lower NIO's addressable market and hence potential future growth.\nFurther, while NIO is heavily investing in autonomous driving and seems to be at the forefront of this next major inflection, it is ultimately reliant on third-party silicon vendors like Nvidia. This insight means pretty much by definition that AV technology may not remain a differentiated capability, as others will be able to buy the same off-the-shelf systems. Although as noted NIO is developing its own software, that itselfis also a riskgiven the difficulty in creating a scalable and reliable AV system.\nAs described, though, NIO is a clear, leading innovator, and has achieved a strong brand value. This arguably makes it the strongest candidate to become the closest to a 'Chinese Tesla'.\nTakeaway\nIn the last 18 months or so, there has been a major shift in investment sentiment around EV companies. Tesla has seen 10-bagger returns. So when evaluating NIO, after its own 10-bagger returns (or more), to a valuation closer to $100B than $10B, on the surface this may change the investment narrative.\nHowever, at least a portion of NIO's large shareholder returns was because of its financial issues, which it has overcome; NIO's valuation is not significantly different from Tesla, for one. Meanwhile, its still much lower scale arguably leaves much room for upside.\nNIO's stock is based on NIO's growth to capitalize on the two-fold disruption of EVs and AVs in the automotive industry. NIO already has a proven track record of growth and innovation with battery swap, ADAS, autonomous driving (although with some increased risks given its change of supplier), ADaaS, BaaS, and even international expansion.\nWhile far from every company will be able to achieve a similar scale as Tesla, NIO clearly remains positioned to be successful in this space, which represents a large, greenfield opportunity in both the Chinese and international push towards electric and autonomous driving.\nThis means NIO's valuation is both the risk and the reward. The reward is that NIO could realistically still expand by another 10x if it continues to trade at a similar valuation as Tesla, while closing the gap in scale. I likened NIO to the Alibaba of EVs: the Chinese counterpart of Amazon in EVs. The risk is NIO's ability to execute and deliver on its growth opportunity, as well as (just as importantly) as Tesla's and other EV stocks' valuation not collapsing on changes in investor sentiment.\nThe bottom line (since NIO's peak in February) is that the potential opportunity that still lies ahead slightly outweighs the risk.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121592447,"gmtCreate":1624471347789,"gmtModify":1703837802801,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Good job","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Good job","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Good job","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfba80504ece637b8f2cfa3ef501b5e","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121592447","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121598778,"gmtCreate":1624470994394,"gmtModify":1703837800210,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121598778","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2145531099","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1624445171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2145531099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 18:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2145531099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The cryptocurrency bubble will inevitably burst. That's why these hypergrowth stocks make for such smart buys.","content":"<p>The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class has delivered better average annual returns than stocks over the long run.</p>\n<p>However, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is changing this mode of thinking. After watching <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) rise from $1 to $40,000 in a little over a decade, and seeing <b>Dogecoin</b> (CRYPTO:DOGE) gallop higher by 27,000% in a six-month span, investors are feeling compelled to chase the momentum in the crypto space.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, this could prove to be a huge mistake.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e84aa34310d37f1ab30212f9dcf1bf0d\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>The cryptocurrency bubble is eventually going to burst</h2>\n<p>While there's no denying that cryptocurrency has delivered some game-changing returns, most of this upside has been built on unsubstantiated hype. In other words, some folks view tokens like Bitcoin and Dogecoin as the future global currencies, but virtually nothing has suggested that this will come to fruition.</p>\n<p>The reality is that digital currencies are virtually useless outside of a cryptocurrency exchange. Bitcoin has been stuck handling 250,000 to 300,000 transactions daily for years, while Dogecoin has been averaging closer to 30,000 daily transactions of late. For comparison's sake, payment-processing giants <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a></b>&nbsp;and <b>Mastercard</b>&nbsp;handled 700 million transactions daily on a combined basis in 2018.</p>\n<p>To build on this point, Fundera estimated earlier this year that only around 15,200 businesses worldwide accepted Bitcoin. Meanwhile, online business directory Cryptwerk finds that Dogecoin is accepted by 1,400 companies. For context, there are more than 32 million businesses in the U.S., and an estimated 582 million entrepreneurs worldwide. There simply isn't the broad-based adoption that's being hyped by cryptocurrency supporters.</p>\n<p>At the same time, blockchain technology is caught in a Catch-22. Blockchain being the transparent and immutable underlying ledger of digital currencies that logs transactions. No business is willing to abandon time-tested infrastructure in favor of blockchain until it's demonstrated that blockchain can be scaled in the real world. At the same time, there won't be any evidence that blockchain is revolutionary if no businesses are willing to be an early stage guinea pig, so to speak.</p>\n<p>History unequivocally shows that all bubbles eventually burst, without exception. That's the fate awaiting cryptocurrencies.</p>\n<h2>Dump digital currencies in favor of this fast-growing trio</h2>\n<p>Rather than put your money to work in an asset class that's being driven by hype and emotion, my suggestion would be to buy the following trio of supercharged stocks. If you buy stakes in innovative businesses whose products and services have growing real-world application, and you hold these stakes for long periods of time, you'll very likely get rich.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ca48e46c5ed915bdfaeb115d44e553\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Etsy</h2>\n<p>To begin with, e-commerce platform <b>Etsy</b> (NASDAQ:ETSY) will have long-term investors forgetting all about the volatility and hype associated with digital currencies.</p>\n<p>To state the obvious, Etsy was a clear winner of the coronavirus pandemic. With people stuck in their homes, many turned online to buy basic-need and discretionary goods. For Etsy, this included a healthy uptick in sales from facial coverings. But the Etsy platform has <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> key advantage that not even <b>Amazon</b>&nbsp;looks to be a threat to: personalization.</p>\n<p>Etsy's platform is built on the idea of putting customers in contact with small merchants who can, if needed, customize their order. Etsy's collection of merchants focuses on personal engagement and uniqueness that shoppers simply won't find on bigger e-commerce platforms. The proof is in the pudding that Etsy's platform is resonating with shoppers. Habitual buyer spending -- those who purchased at least six separate times totaling more than $200, in aggregate, over the trailing year -- has been rocketing higher. Habitual buyers spent 205% more in the first quarter of 2021 than they did in the prior-year quarter.</p>\n<p>Since Etsy generates the bulk of its revenue from merchant ads, the company has also been aggressively reinvesting in its platform to streamline searches and keep users engaged. Last year, it introduced listing videos to promote products, and it's been giving its smaller merchants greater access to analytic tools.</p>\n<p>It's not out of the question that Etsy triples its annual revenue by mid-decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95488cfb7d1265a9ff2f104768cae97b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"464\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Sea Limited</h2>\n<p>Another supercharged growth stock that can make investors rich is Singapore-based <b>Sea Limited</b> (NYSE:SE). Even though Sea is far from inexpensive, the premium you'd be paying takes into account that it has three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments.</p>\n<p>For the time being, Sea is generating virtually all of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from its gaming division. Similar to online shopping, gaming benefited notably from people being stuck in their homes. Since Sea's mobile games target global audiences, and the pandemic is nowhere near over in many parts of the world, demand for gaming entertainment will likely remain robust. Over the past year (through the end of March), quarterly active paying users grew by 124%, with 12.3% of the company's total gamers now paying to play.</p>\n<p>Over the long run, Sea's crown jewel should be its e-commerce platform Shopee, which is consistently the most-popular shopping download in Southeastern Asia, and is gaining significant traction in Brazil. With a focus on emerging markets and regions where the middle class is growing at an incredible rate, Shopee saw gross orders jump 153% in the first quarter, with the gross merchandise value of these orders doubling to $12.6 billion. This is just the tip of the iceberg.</p>\n<p>Lastly, Sea's digital financial services division is bringing mobile wallet services to underbanked regions. Mobile wallet payment volume is on pace to potentially surpass $14 billion in 2021, with more than 26 million paying customers in Q1.</p>\n<p>If all goes well, Sea Limited's revenue could possibly quintuple over the next four years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68ecb34d6e4fd6f7dc599908229a09a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"449\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>CrowdStrike Holdings</h2>\n<p>Cybersecurity stock <b>CrowdStrike Holdings</b> (NASDAQ:CRWD) is a third supercharged growth company that can easily outpace the returns from the cryptocurrency industry over the long run.</p>\n<p>Cybersecurity might not be the fastest-growing industry over the next decade, but it could very well be the safest double-digit growth opportunity. With more businesses than ever shifting their data online and into the cloud due to the pandemic, the importance of protecting enterprise and consumer data is greater than ever before. In short, demand for third-party cybersecurity solutions providers is soaring.</p>\n<p>While there is no shortage of cybersecurity specialists to choose from, what sets CrowdStrike apart is its cloud-native Falcon platform. Being built in the cloud, and relying on artificial intelligence, Falcon oversees approximately 6 trillion events each week. This is to say that CrowdStrike's core platform is getting smarter at recognizing and responding to potential threats over time. And in many instances, CrowdStrike's solutions are more efficient and cost-effective than on-premises security options.</p>\n<p>It's plainly evident from the company's operating results that Falcon is resonating with enterprise customers. It's been able to retain 98% of its customers for two consecutive years, and existing clients have spent between 23% and 47% more on a year-over-year basis for 12 straight quarters. Arguably even more impressive is that 64% of customers have purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions, which is up from 9% just four years ago. It's this rapid scaling from the company's enterprise clients that has CrowdStrike generating a subscription gross margin in the upper 70% range.</p>\n<p>Investors should expect CrowdStrike to grow by 30% or more on an annual basis through the midpoint of the decade.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Crypto: These Supercharged Stocks Can Make You Rich\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 18:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","ETSY":"Etsy, Inc.","SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/23/forget-crypto-supercharged-stocks-make-you-rich/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2145531099","content_text":"The stock market has long been the preferred creator of wealth. Although other investment vehicles, such as bonds or gold, have had superior performances for short stretches of time, no asset class has delivered better average annual returns than stocks over the long run.\nHowever, the emergence of cryptocurrencies is changing this mode of thinking. After watching Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) rise from $1 to $40,000 in a little over a decade, and seeing Dogecoin (CRYPTO:DOGE) gallop higher by 27,000% in a six-month span, investors are feeling compelled to chase the momentum in the crypto space.\nUnfortunately, this could prove to be a huge mistake.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nThe cryptocurrency bubble is eventually going to burst\nWhile there's no denying that cryptocurrency has delivered some game-changing returns, most of this upside has been built on unsubstantiated hype. In other words, some folks view tokens like Bitcoin and Dogecoin as the future global currencies, but virtually nothing has suggested that this will come to fruition.\nThe reality is that digital currencies are virtually useless outside of a cryptocurrency exchange. Bitcoin has been stuck handling 250,000 to 300,000 transactions daily for years, while Dogecoin has been averaging closer to 30,000 daily transactions of late. For comparison's sake, payment-processing giants Visa and Mastercard handled 700 million transactions daily on a combined basis in 2018.\nTo build on this point, Fundera estimated earlier this year that only around 15,200 businesses worldwide accepted Bitcoin. Meanwhile, online business directory Cryptwerk finds that Dogecoin is accepted by 1,400 companies. For context, there are more than 32 million businesses in the U.S., and an estimated 582 million entrepreneurs worldwide. There simply isn't the broad-based adoption that's being hyped by cryptocurrency supporters.\nAt the same time, blockchain technology is caught in a Catch-22. Blockchain being the transparent and immutable underlying ledger of digital currencies that logs transactions. No business is willing to abandon time-tested infrastructure in favor of blockchain until it's demonstrated that blockchain can be scaled in the real world. At the same time, there won't be any evidence that blockchain is revolutionary if no businesses are willing to be an early stage guinea pig, so to speak.\nHistory unequivocally shows that all bubbles eventually burst, without exception. That's the fate awaiting cryptocurrencies.\nDump digital currencies in favor of this fast-growing trio\nRather than put your money to work in an asset class that's being driven by hype and emotion, my suggestion would be to buy the following trio of supercharged stocks. If you buy stakes in innovative businesses whose products and services have growing real-world application, and you hold these stakes for long periods of time, you'll very likely get rich.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nEtsy\nTo begin with, e-commerce platform Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) will have long-term investors forgetting all about the volatility and hype associated with digital currencies.\nTo state the obvious, Etsy was a clear winner of the coronavirus pandemic. With people stuck in their homes, many turned online to buy basic-need and discretionary goods. For Etsy, this included a healthy uptick in sales from facial coverings. But the Etsy platform has one key advantage that not even Amazon looks to be a threat to: personalization.\nEtsy's platform is built on the idea of putting customers in contact with small merchants who can, if needed, customize their order. Etsy's collection of merchants focuses on personal engagement and uniqueness that shoppers simply won't find on bigger e-commerce platforms. The proof is in the pudding that Etsy's platform is resonating with shoppers. Habitual buyer spending -- those who purchased at least six separate times totaling more than $200, in aggregate, over the trailing year -- has been rocketing higher. Habitual buyers spent 205% more in the first quarter of 2021 than they did in the prior-year quarter.\nSince Etsy generates the bulk of its revenue from merchant ads, the company has also been aggressively reinvesting in its platform to streamline searches and keep users engaged. Last year, it introduced listing videos to promote products, and it's been giving its smaller merchants greater access to analytic tools.\nIt's not out of the question that Etsy triples its annual revenue by mid-decade.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nSea Limited\nAnother supercharged growth stock that can make investors rich is Singapore-based Sea Limited (NYSE:SE). Even though Sea is far from inexpensive, the premium you'd be paying takes into account that it has three exceptionally fast-growing operating segments.\nFor the time being, Sea is generating virtually all of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) from its gaming division. Similar to online shopping, gaming benefited notably from people being stuck in their homes. Since Sea's mobile games target global audiences, and the pandemic is nowhere near over in many parts of the world, demand for gaming entertainment will likely remain robust. Over the past year (through the end of March), quarterly active paying users grew by 124%, with 12.3% of the company's total gamers now paying to play.\nOver the long run, Sea's crown jewel should be its e-commerce platform Shopee, which is consistently the most-popular shopping download in Southeastern Asia, and is gaining significant traction in Brazil. With a focus on emerging markets and regions where the middle class is growing at an incredible rate, Shopee saw gross orders jump 153% in the first quarter, with the gross merchandise value of these orders doubling to $12.6 billion. This is just the tip of the iceberg.\nLastly, Sea's digital financial services division is bringing mobile wallet services to underbanked regions. Mobile wallet payment volume is on pace to potentially surpass $14 billion in 2021, with more than 26 million paying customers in Q1.\nIf all goes well, Sea Limited's revenue could possibly quintuple over the next four years.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nCrowdStrike Holdings\nCybersecurity stock CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD) is a third supercharged growth company that can easily outpace the returns from the cryptocurrency industry over the long run.\nCybersecurity might not be the fastest-growing industry over the next decade, but it could very well be the safest double-digit growth opportunity. With more businesses than ever shifting their data online and into the cloud due to the pandemic, the importance of protecting enterprise and consumer data is greater than ever before. In short, demand for third-party cybersecurity solutions providers is soaring.\nWhile there is no shortage of cybersecurity specialists to choose from, what sets CrowdStrike apart is its cloud-native Falcon platform. Being built in the cloud, and relying on artificial intelligence, Falcon oversees approximately 6 trillion events each week. This is to say that CrowdStrike's core platform is getting smarter at recognizing and responding to potential threats over time. And in many instances, CrowdStrike's solutions are more efficient and cost-effective than on-premises security options.\nIt's plainly evident from the company's operating results that Falcon is resonating with enterprise customers. It's been able to retain 98% of its customers for two consecutive years, and existing clients have spent between 23% and 47% more on a year-over-year basis for 12 straight quarters. Arguably even more impressive is that 64% of customers have purchased four or more cloud-module subscriptions, which is up from 9% just four years ago. It's this rapid scaling from the company's enterprise clients that has CrowdStrike generating a subscription gross margin in the upper 70% range.\nInvestors should expect CrowdStrike to grow by 30% or more on an annual basis through the midpoint of the decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":121274762,"gmtCreate":1624468832156,"gmtModify":1703837777532,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/121274762","repostId":"1103650363","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1103650363","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624446946,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103650363?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-23 19:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"10 Stocks That The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Added In The 1st Half Of 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103650363","media":"The Street","summary":"Cathie Wood's new positions this year include a mix of genomics, tech, internet and cryptocurrency p","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Cathie Wood's new positions this year include a mix of genomics, tech, internet and cryptocurrency plays.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>There might not be a bigger rock star investors in the world right now than Cathie Wood. Her stock picks and the daily buys and sells of stocks within her ARK ETFs are picked apart with a fine tooth comb every day of the week.</p>\n<p>Prior to 2021, there was nothing but love. The company's flagship<b>ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)</b>had grown from around $1.8 billion at the beginning of 2020 to nearly $28 billion during its February 2021 peak. Investors were chasing her incredible track record over the prior several years and up to that point it had mostly paid off.</p>\n<p>2021 has been a different story. ARK's high-tech innovation theme has fallen out of favor and ARKK had fallen as much as 36% from its peak. The money, which had been flowing in non-stop, started heading in the other direction and Cathie Wood suddenly became the object of scorn for many previous ARK fans. With the sudden influx on new money and the timing of the sharp downturn of ARKK, it was estimated that more than half of the money sitting in the fund was underwater.</p>\n<p>But that doesn't make ARKK any less interesting. Many people still watch ARK's transaction activity like a hawk and it does give us some insight into what one of the most watched financial minds is thinking in real time.</p>\n<p>Like I didearlier this year, I'm going back toarktrack.comto comb through their database of ARK transaction data. Cathie Wood buys and sells a lot, but these are 10 stocks that are new additions to ARKK in 2021 that the fund still holds onto today.</p>\n<p><b>Twitter (TWTR)</b></p>\n<p>Wood has been steadily buying Twitter stock on the dips and it now accounts for about 1.8% of the fund overall, making it the 19th largest holding in ARKK out of 51 total holdings.</p>\n<p>Wood bought a big stake in May following a double-digit decline after disappointing quarterly guidance. She picked up more shares in late May with Benzinganotingthe curious timing:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Monday bought 731,775 shares, estimated to be worth about $41.76 million, in Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) — a day after The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust sold its entire stake in the social media company.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>DraftKings (DKNG)</b></p>\n<p>DraftKings is another stock that Wood has been in and out of a lot. Like Twitter, she's been buying the stock on the dips, most recently just last week when she added $42 million in shares across multiple ARK ETFs after Hindenburg Researchtooka short position in the company.</p>\n<p>Today, DKNG accounts for about 1.9% of ARKK, making it the 18th largest holding.</p>\n<p><b>Palantir (PLTR)</b></p>\n<p>Wood took a huge position in Palantir towards the end of March and has expanded that position throughout the 2nd quarter. In May, she added more shares in both ARKK and the<b>ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)</b>after a Q1 earnings beat that sent the stock higher.</p>\n<p>Palantir has become one of ARKK's larger holdings with about 2.5% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Coinbase (COIN)</b></p>\n<p>Coinbase officially went public on April 14th of this year and it didn't take long for Wood to jump on board. She bought shares almost immediately after it became publicly listed and pretty much hasn't stopped since.</p>\n<p>Cathie Wood has been bullish on bitcoin and cryptocurrency for a while and the heavy allocation to COIN is reflective of that.</p>\n<p>COIN is the only one of ARKK's new positions of 2021 that falls into the fund's top 10 holdings. It's currently at #10 with approximately 3.3% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Novartis (NVS)</b></p>\n<p>You may not immediately think of pharmaceutical companies when it comes to the types of companies Wood typically targets, but she views NVS as a play on her expected biotech/genomics theme. NVS also sneaks into the top 10 holdings of the<b>ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG)</b>.</p>\n<p>In ARKK, however, NVS is only one of the fund's smallest holdings with a relatively scant 0.4% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Trimble (TRMB)</b></p>\n<p>Trimble is involved in the development and/or production of global navigation satellite systems, laser rangefinders, unmanned aerial vehicles and navigation systems, so it's not surprising that this found it's way onto Cathie Wood's radar. The stock shows up in very few ETFs overall, but it's the top holding in the<b>ARK Space Exploration ETF (ARKX)</b>at 9% of assets and #3 in the<b>ARK Autonomous Technology &amp; Robotics ETF (ARKQ)</b>.</p>\n<p>In ARKK, however, it's only a small holding with only 0.5% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Teradyne (TER)</b></p>\n<p>Teradyne is a stock that's gone in and out of the ARK ETFs for several years. It mostly disappeared heading into 2021, but re-emerged in ARKK with a roughly 2 million share purchase in the 1st quarter. Wood has held on through the midway point of 2021, but only at a modest 1% of total assets.</p>\n<p><b>Skillz (SKLZ)</b></p>\n<p>Skillz is a mobile esports platform, which makes it an ideal high growth next-gen tech play for the ARK funds. Like many companies in this space, it's experienced big growth during the pandemic and Wood has become one of the company's bigger advocates.</p>\n<p>She was been building a position in SKLZ throughout the year, but added another batch of shares in early May following a big increase in both revenues and average users. The stock is a middle of the road holding for ARKK at about 1.3% of assets.</p>\n<p><b>Fate Therapeutics (FATE)</b></p>\n<p>Wood was in on Fate early in the year and continues to hold it following her belief in biotech and therapeutics. Fate is a top 10 holding in ARKG and accounts for about 1.2% of ARKK.</p>\n<p><b>10X Genomics (TXG)</b></p>\n<p>10X Genomics sits just outside the top 10 of ARKK, but it's become one of the fund's largest new positions of 2021. Curiously, it also ranks outside the top 10 of ARKG. At roughly 2.4% of assets, TXG's position in ARKK is nearly the same as both Palantir and DraftKings.</p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10 Stocks That The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Added In The 1st Half Of 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10 Stocks That The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) Added In The 1st Half Of 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-23 19:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/10-stocks-ark-innovation-etf-arkk-added-1st-half-2021><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Cathie Wood's new positions this year include a mix of genomics, tech, internet and cryptocurrency plays.\n\nThere might not be a bigger rock star investors in the world right now than Cathie Wood. Her ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/10-stocks-ark-innovation-etf-arkk-added-1st-half-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVS":"诺华","TXG":"10x Genomics, Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","TWTR":"Twitter","FATE":"Fate Therapeutics Inc","TRMB":"天宝导航","TER":"泰瑞达","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","SKLZ":"Skillz Inc","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/10-stocks-ark-innovation-etf-arkk-added-1st-half-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103650363","content_text":"Cathie Wood's new positions this year include a mix of genomics, tech, internet and cryptocurrency plays.\n\nThere might not be a bigger rock star investors in the world right now than Cathie Wood. Her stock picks and the daily buys and sells of stocks within her ARK ETFs are picked apart with a fine tooth comb every day of the week.\nPrior to 2021, there was nothing but love. The company's flagshipARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)had grown from around $1.8 billion at the beginning of 2020 to nearly $28 billion during its February 2021 peak. Investors were chasing her incredible track record over the prior several years and up to that point it had mostly paid off.\n2021 has been a different story. ARK's high-tech innovation theme has fallen out of favor and ARKK had fallen as much as 36% from its peak. The money, which had been flowing in non-stop, started heading in the other direction and Cathie Wood suddenly became the object of scorn for many previous ARK fans. With the sudden influx on new money and the timing of the sharp downturn of ARKK, it was estimated that more than half of the money sitting in the fund was underwater.\nBut that doesn't make ARKK any less interesting. Many people still watch ARK's transaction activity like a hawk and it does give us some insight into what one of the most watched financial minds is thinking in real time.\nLike I didearlier this year, I'm going back toarktrack.comto comb through their database of ARK transaction data. Cathie Wood buys and sells a lot, but these are 10 stocks that are new additions to ARKK in 2021 that the fund still holds onto today.\nTwitter (TWTR)\nWood has been steadily buying Twitter stock on the dips and it now accounts for about 1.8% of the fund overall, making it the 19th largest holding in ARKK out of 51 total holdings.\nWood bought a big stake in May following a double-digit decline after disappointing quarterly guidance. She picked up more shares in late May with Benzinganotingthe curious timing:\n\n Cathie Wood-led Ark Investment Management on Monday bought 731,775 shares, estimated to be worth about $41.76 million, in Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) — a day after The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust sold its entire stake in the social media company.\n\nDraftKings (DKNG)\nDraftKings is another stock that Wood has been in and out of a lot. Like Twitter, she's been buying the stock on the dips, most recently just last week when she added $42 million in shares across multiple ARK ETFs after Hindenburg Researchtooka short position in the company.\nToday, DKNG accounts for about 1.9% of ARKK, making it the 18th largest holding.\nPalantir (PLTR)\nWood took a huge position in Palantir towards the end of March and has expanded that position throughout the 2nd quarter. In May, she added more shares in both ARKK and theARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW)after a Q1 earnings beat that sent the stock higher.\nPalantir has become one of ARKK's larger holdings with about 2.5% of assets.\nCoinbase (COIN)\nCoinbase officially went public on April 14th of this year and it didn't take long for Wood to jump on board. She bought shares almost immediately after it became publicly listed and pretty much hasn't stopped since.\nCathie Wood has been bullish on bitcoin and cryptocurrency for a while and the heavy allocation to COIN is reflective of that.\nCOIN is the only one of ARKK's new positions of 2021 that falls into the fund's top 10 holdings. It's currently at #10 with approximately 3.3% of assets.\nNovartis (NVS)\nYou may not immediately think of pharmaceutical companies when it comes to the types of companies Wood typically targets, but she views NVS as a play on her expected biotech/genomics theme. NVS also sneaks into the top 10 holdings of theARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG).\nIn ARKK, however, NVS is only one of the fund's smallest holdings with a relatively scant 0.4% of assets.\nTrimble (TRMB)\nTrimble is involved in the development and/or production of global navigation satellite systems, laser rangefinders, unmanned aerial vehicles and navigation systems, so it's not surprising that this found it's way onto Cathie Wood's radar. The stock shows up in very few ETFs overall, but it's the top holding in theARK Space Exploration ETF (ARKX)at 9% of assets and #3 in theARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ).\nIn ARKK, however, it's only a small holding with only 0.5% of assets.\nTeradyne (TER)\nTeradyne is a stock that's gone in and out of the ARK ETFs for several years. It mostly disappeared heading into 2021, but re-emerged in ARKK with a roughly 2 million share purchase in the 1st quarter. Wood has held on through the midway point of 2021, but only at a modest 1% of total assets.\nSkillz (SKLZ)\nSkillz is a mobile esports platform, which makes it an ideal high growth next-gen tech play for the ARK funds. Like many companies in this space, it's experienced big growth during the pandemic and Wood has become one of the company's bigger advocates.\nShe was been building a position in SKLZ throughout the year, but added another batch of shares in early May following a big increase in both revenues and average users. The stock is a middle of the road holding for ARKK at about 1.3% of assets.\nFate Therapeutics (FATE)\nWood was in on Fate early in the year and continues to hold it following her belief in biotech and therapeutics. Fate is a top 10 holding in ARKG and accounts for about 1.2% of ARKK.\n10X Genomics (TXG)\n10X Genomics sits just outside the top 10 of ARKK, but it's become one of the fund's largest new positions of 2021. Curiously, it also ranks outside the top 10 of ARKG. At roughly 2.4% of assets, TXG's position in ARKK is nearly the same as both Palantir and DraftKings.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129498558,"gmtCreate":1624379825974,"gmtModify":1703835118332,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129498558","repostId":"1164714575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164714575","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624369315,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164714575?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 21:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power moves higher following mixed Q1 results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164714575","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 22) Plug Power had a mixed earnings report, missing on its bottom line but reporting better-th","content":"<p>(June 22)&nbsp;Plug Power had a mixed earnings report, missing on its bottom line but reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue. Still, shares edged higher in morning trading&nbsp;Tuesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c95193b7e71aa70fb34e84ee562115\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Plug Power Missed Earnings Estimates. Why Its Stock Is Gaining？</b></p>\n<p>Hydrogen fuel cell technology provider Plug Power reported somewhat disappointing first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Its stock is rising anyway in premarket trading.</p>\n<p>The report signals things are calming down at the company, after results were delayed by accounting issues.</p>\n<p>Plug (ticker: PLUG) reported a loss of 12 cents per share from $72 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for an 8 cent loss from $69 million in sales. It’s an earning miss, but earnings for a smaller company with big growth plans isn’t as important as sales. Plug’s 2021 sales are expected to be $465 million, growing to more than $1 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p>Plug also ended the quarter with more than $4.3 billion in cash on the balance sheet.</p>\n<p>Plug stock rose 0.5% in premarket trading. S&amp;P 500 futures are flat.</p>\n<p>It took a while for the company to report its first quarter. In 2020, Plug reported first-quarter results on May 7. This year, however, accounting issues—disclosed in March—got in the way. The company ended up restating some older results after changing the accounting for customer contracts. Cash wasn’t affected by the restatements.</p>\n<p>The accounting-related delay is another reasons the stock isn’t doing much after the release of actual earnings. Amid all the restatements and updates, investors had a good sense of what was coming for the first quarter. Several times in May, Plug management had said sales would be greater than $67 million.</p>\n<p>Plug management hosts a conference call for analysts and investors at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors will be eager to hear about second-quarter sales, which are expected to be more than $100 million.</p>\n<p>Year to date, Plug stock is down about 12%, trailing behind comparable gains of the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Many renewable energy stocks have struggled in 2021 after amazing 2020 gains. Stock in electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), for instance, is down about 12% year to date after rising 743% in 2020. Plug stock rose 973% in 2020.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power moves higher following mixed Q1 results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power moves higher following mixed Q1 results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-22 21:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 22)&nbsp;Plug Power had a mixed earnings report, missing on its bottom line but reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue. Still, shares edged higher in morning trading&nbsp;Tuesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c95193b7e71aa70fb34e84ee562115\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Plug Power Missed Earnings Estimates. Why Its Stock Is Gaining？</b></p>\n<p>Hydrogen fuel cell technology provider Plug Power reported somewhat disappointing first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Its stock is rising anyway in premarket trading.</p>\n<p>The report signals things are calming down at the company, after results were delayed by accounting issues.</p>\n<p>Plug (ticker: PLUG) reported a loss of 12 cents per share from $72 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for an 8 cent loss from $69 million in sales. It’s an earning miss, but earnings for a smaller company with big growth plans isn’t as important as sales. Plug’s 2021 sales are expected to be $465 million, growing to more than $1 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p>Plug also ended the quarter with more than $4.3 billion in cash on the balance sheet.</p>\n<p>Plug stock rose 0.5% in premarket trading. S&amp;P 500 futures are flat.</p>\n<p>It took a while for the company to report its first quarter. In 2020, Plug reported first-quarter results on May 7. This year, however, accounting issues—disclosed in March—got in the way. The company ended up restating some older results after changing the accounting for customer contracts. Cash wasn’t affected by the restatements.</p>\n<p>The accounting-related delay is another reasons the stock isn’t doing much after the release of actual earnings. Amid all the restatements and updates, investors had a good sense of what was coming for the first quarter. Several times in May, Plug management had said sales would be greater than $67 million.</p>\n<p>Plug management hosts a conference call for analysts and investors at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors will be eager to hear about second-quarter sales, which are expected to be more than $100 million.</p>\n<p>Year to date, Plug stock is down about 12%, trailing behind comparable gains of the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Many renewable energy stocks have struggled in 2021 after amazing 2020 gains. Stock in electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), for instance, is down about 12% year to date after rising 743% in 2020. Plug stock rose 973% in 2020.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164714575","content_text":"(June 22) Plug Power had a mixed earnings report, missing on its bottom line but reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue. Still, shares edged higher in morning trading Tuesday.\n\nPlug Power Missed Earnings Estimates. Why Its Stock Is Gaining？\nHydrogen fuel cell technology provider Plug Power reported somewhat disappointing first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Its stock is rising anyway in premarket trading.\nThe report signals things are calming down at the company, after results were delayed by accounting issues.\nPlug (ticker: PLUG) reported a loss of 12 cents per share from $72 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for an 8 cent loss from $69 million in sales. It’s an earning miss, but earnings for a smaller company with big growth plans isn’t as important as sales. Plug’s 2021 sales are expected to be $465 million, growing to more than $1 billion by 2023.\nPlug also ended the quarter with more than $4.3 billion in cash on the balance sheet.\nPlug stock rose 0.5% in premarket trading. S&P 500 futures are flat.\nIt took a while for the company to report its first quarter. In 2020, Plug reported first-quarter results on May 7. This year, however, accounting issues—disclosed in March—got in the way. The company ended up restating some older results after changing the accounting for customer contracts. Cash wasn’t affected by the restatements.\nThe accounting-related delay is another reasons the stock isn’t doing much after the release of actual earnings. Amid all the restatements and updates, investors had a good sense of what was coming for the first quarter. Several times in May, Plug management had said sales would be greater than $67 million.\nPlug management hosts a conference call for analysts and investors at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors will be eager to hear about second-quarter sales, which are expected to be more than $100 million.\nYear to date, Plug stock is down about 12%, trailing behind comparable gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Many renewable energy stocks have struggled in 2021 after amazing 2020 gains. Stock in electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), for instance, is down about 12% year to date after rising 743% in 2020. Plug stock rose 973% in 2020.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120396027,"gmtCreate":1624295877769,"gmtModify":1703832860853,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120396027","repostId":"1127414335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127414335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624288763,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127414335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127414335","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to con","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</li>\n <li>Amazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).</li>\n <li>The stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.</li>\n <li>Today, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.</p>\n<p>The primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.</p>\n<p>After evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.</p>\n<p><b>The Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation</b></p>\n<p>At BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.</p>\n<p>Here's our extensive research work on Amazon:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Retail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth</li>\n <li>Amazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>\n <li>Digital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ef0b4ba9477ffe4662dd02b4a4fe56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Now, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450a291ce832606dc4568f5b000a234b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>After rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Why Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?</b></p>\n<p>In Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484d6ffb34aa711d2460f56878a19b30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>With acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f684da9379808e65eb00bac24f21bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>As you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1ec1d647bed5d59e91bdaa0535d25e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source:&nbsp;Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>Since 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f1ccee71f8675c6cabd16cf4e08733d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>The massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c041f8732f0e9557d632f4bc3444b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Amazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6b99e2dd54b3885cd7542d213be0429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>I believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.</p>\n<p><b>Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p>\n<p>To determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>With massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.</p>\n<p><b>Assumptions:</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82136b2cd82ebf242b95eb6d17e2f4b1\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"538\"></p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a3cb8964e421080c530abc1b3d62bf\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"729\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.</p>\n<p>To calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.</p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb09f1799ac5ea2741e204766b4df3c\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"429\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Furthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.</li>\n <li>Since Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.</li>\n <li>In the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.</li>\n <li>For the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Also, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.</li>\n <li>Amazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.</li>\n <li>The healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</p>\n<p>In the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127414335","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).\nThe stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.\nToday, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.\nThe primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.\nAfter evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.\nThe Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation\nAt BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.\nHere's our extensive research work on Amazon:\n\nRetail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth\nAmazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nNow, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAfter rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.\nWhy Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?\nIn Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:\n\nSource:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nWith acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAs you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).\n\nSource: Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nSince 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.\nSource: YCharts\nThe massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAmazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.\n\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nI believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.\nFair Value And Expected Returns\nTo determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nWith massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.\nAssumptions:\n\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.\nTo calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.\nRisks\n\nAmazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.\nFurthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.\nSince Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.\nIn the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.\nFor the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.\nAlso, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.\nAmazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.\nThe healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.\n\nConcluding Thoughts\nAmazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nIn the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.\nThanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167784273,"gmtCreate":1624285041792,"gmtModify":1703832492028,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167784273","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154249454","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624230573,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154249454?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 07:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, FedEx, Johnson & Johnson, Darden, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154249454","media":"barrons","summary":"A handful of notable companies will release their latest results toward the end of this week.Nike,FedEx,andDarden Restaurantswill report on Thursday, followed by CarMax and Paychex on Friday. Wednesday will also feature analyst days and investor events from Johnson & Johnson, GlaxoSmithKline,and Equinix.Economic data out this week include IHS’ Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for June on Wednesday. Both are expected to hold near their record highs. The Census Bureau will r","content":"<p>A handful of notable companies will release their latest results toward the end of this week.Nike,FedEx,andDarden Restaurantswill report on Thursday, followed by CarMax and Paychex on Friday. Wednesday will also feature analyst days and investor events from&nbsp;Johnson &amp;&nbsp;Johnson,&nbsp;GlaxoSmithKline,and&nbsp;Equinix.</p>\n<p>Economic data out this week include IHS’ Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for June on Wednesday. Both are expected to hold near their record highs. The Census Bureau will release the durable-goods report for May on Thursday. Orders—often seen as a decent proxy for business investment—are expected to rise 3.3% month over month.</p>\n<p>And on Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will report personal income and consumption for May. Spending is forecast to continue rising despite a drop off in income as stimulus checks finished being sent out in April.</p>\n<p>Monday 6/21</p>\n<p><b>The Federal Reserve Bank</b>of Chicago releases its National Activity index, a gauge of overall economic activity, for May. Expectations are for a 0.50 reading, higher than April’s 0.24 figure. A positive reading indicates economic growth that is above historical trends.</p>\n<p>Tuesday 6/22</p>\n<p><b>The National Association</b>of Realtors reports existing-home sales for May. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7 million homes sold, about 150,000 fewer than the April data. Existing-home sales have fallen for three consecutive months, as supply hasn’t been able to keep up with demand.</p>\n<p>Wednesday 6/23</p>\n<p>Equinix hosts its 2021 analyst day, when the company will update its long-term financial outlook.</p>\n<p>GlaxoSmithKline hosts a conference call, featuring its CEO, Emma Walmsley, to update investors on the company’s strategy for growth and shareholder value creation.</p>\n<p>Johnson &amp; Johnson hosts a webcast to discuss its ESG strategy.</p>\n<p><b>The Census Bureau</b>reports new residential construction data for May. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 875,000 new single-family homes sold, slightly higher than April’s 863,000. Similar to existing-home sales, new-home sales have fallen from their recent peak of 993,000 in January of this year.</p>\n<p><b>IHS Markitreports</b>both its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for June. Expectations are for a 61.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI, and a 69.8 figure for the Services PMI. Both projections are comparable to the May data as well as being near record highs for their respective indexes.</p>\n<p>Thursday 6/24</p>\n<p><b>The Bureau of Economic Analysis</b>reports the third and final estimate of first-quarter gross-domestic-product growth. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 6.4%.</p>\n<p>Accenture,Darden Restaurants, FedEx, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p>\n<p><b>The Bank of England</b>announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its key interest rate at 0.1%.</p>\n<p><b>The Census Bureau</b>releases the durable-goods report for May. The consensus call is for new orders of manufactured goods to rise 2.8% month over month to $253 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are projected at 1%, matching the April data.</p>\n<p>Friday 6/25</p>\n<p>CarMax and Paychex report earnings.</p>\n<p><b>The BEA reports</b>personal income and consumption for May. Income is expected to fall 3% month over month, after plummeting 13.1% in April. This reflects a dropoff in stimulus checks that first were sent out in March. Spending is seen rising 0.5%, comparable to the April data.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, FedEx, Johnson & Johnson, Darden, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, FedEx, Johnson & Johnson, Darden, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 07:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-fedex-johnson-johnson-darden-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51624215603?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A handful of notable companies will release their latest results toward the end of this week.Nike,FedEx,andDarden Restaurantswill report on Thursday, followed by CarMax and Paychex on Friday. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-fedex-johnson-johnson-darden-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51624215603?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","DRI":"达登饭店","JNJ":"强生","FDX":"联邦快递"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-fedex-johnson-johnson-darden-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51624215603?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154249454","content_text":"A handful of notable companies will release their latest results toward the end of this week.Nike,FedEx,andDarden Restaurantswill report on Thursday, followed by CarMax and Paychex on Friday. Wednesday will also feature analyst days and investor events from Johnson & Johnson, GlaxoSmithKline,and Equinix.\nEconomic data out this week include IHS’ Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for June on Wednesday. Both are expected to hold near their record highs. The Census Bureau will release the durable-goods report for May on Thursday. Orders—often seen as a decent proxy for business investment—are expected to rise 3.3% month over month.\nAnd on Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will report personal income and consumption for May. Spending is forecast to continue rising despite a drop off in income as stimulus checks finished being sent out in April.\nMonday 6/21\nThe Federal Reserve Bankof Chicago releases its National Activity index, a gauge of overall economic activity, for May. Expectations are for a 0.50 reading, higher than April’s 0.24 figure. A positive reading indicates economic growth that is above historical trends.\nTuesday 6/22\nThe National Associationof Realtors reports existing-home sales for May. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7 million homes sold, about 150,000 fewer than the April data. Existing-home sales have fallen for three consecutive months, as supply hasn’t been able to keep up with demand.\nWednesday 6/23\nEquinix hosts its 2021 analyst day, when the company will update its long-term financial outlook.\nGlaxoSmithKline hosts a conference call, featuring its CEO, Emma Walmsley, to update investors on the company’s strategy for growth and shareholder value creation.\nJohnson & Johnson hosts a webcast to discuss its ESG strategy.\nThe Census Bureaureports new residential construction data for May. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 875,000 new single-family homes sold, slightly higher than April’s 863,000. Similar to existing-home sales, new-home sales have fallen from their recent peak of 993,000 in January of this year.\nIHS Markitreportsboth its Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for June. Expectations are for a 61.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI, and a 69.8 figure for the Services PMI. Both projections are comparable to the May data as well as being near record highs for their respective indexes.\nThursday 6/24\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysisreports the third and final estimate of first-quarter gross-domestic-product growth. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 6.4%.\nAccenture,Darden Restaurants, FedEx, and Nike hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Bank of Englandannounces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep its key interest rate at 0.1%.\nThe Census Bureaureleases the durable-goods report for May. The consensus call is for new orders of manufactured goods to rise 2.8% month over month to $253 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are projected at 1%, matching the April data.\nFriday 6/25\nCarMax and Paychex report earnings.\nThe BEA reportspersonal income and consumption for May. Income is expected to fall 3% month over month, after plummeting 13.1% in April. This reflects a dropoff in stimulus checks that first were sent out in March. Spending is seen rising 0.5%, comparable to the April data.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167590913,"gmtCreate":1624275085832,"gmtModify":1703832150189,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167590913","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164206167,"gmtCreate":1624205033059,"gmtModify":1703830623289,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTNR\">$Vertex(VTNR)$</a>Red","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTNR\">$Vertex(VTNR)$</a>Red","text":"$Vertex(VTNR)$Red","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4d571e0e670023f0bebe894525b37df","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164206167","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164337307,"gmtCreate":1624170896909,"gmtModify":1703830107883,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wao","listText":"Wao","text":"Wao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164337307","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133385197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151969,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133385197?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Answering the great inflation question of our time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133385197","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up","content":"<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”</p>\n<p>The current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?</p>\n<p>Before I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.</p>\n<p>As an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.</p>\n<p>Until now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87f75dfcb98fb5a0e7c3f9d3f8d336e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Used car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.</p>\n<p>To be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)</p>\n<p>But that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&amp;P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.</p>\n<p>Given this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.</p>\n<p>Now I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.</p>\n<p>As for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.</p>\n<p>“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”</p>\n<p>“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.</p>\n<p>COVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.</p>\n<p>A prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.</p>\n<p>Another secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.</p>\n<p><b>Anti-inflation forces</b></p>\n<p>But here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?</p>\n<p>I say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”</p>\n<p>To buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.</p>\n<p>To me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.</p>\n<p>Not only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.</p>\n<p>So technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.</p>\n<p>There is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.</p>\n<p>After World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)</p>\n<p>Like its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.</p>\n<p>The internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.</p>\n<p>So technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.</p>\n<p>COVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.</p>\n<p>How significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.</p>\n<p>More downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”</p>\n<p>And so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”</p>\n<p>I don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Answering the great inflation question of our time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnswering the great inflation question of our time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html><strong>finance.yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133385197","content_text":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”\nThe current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?\nBefore I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.\nAs an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.\nUntil now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)\n\nUsed car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.\nTo be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)\nBut that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.\nGiven this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.\nNow I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.\nAs for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.\nWhich brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.\n“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”\n“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.\nCOVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.\nA prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.\nAnother secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.\nAnti-inflation forces\nBut here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?\nI say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”\nTo buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.\nTo me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.\nNot only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.\nSo technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.\nThere is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.\nAfter World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)\nLike its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.\nThe internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.\nSo technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.\nCOVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.\nHow significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.\nMore downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”\nAnd so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”\nI don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165693109,"gmtCreate":1624121859501,"gmtModify":1703829114954,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>???","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29346ab2e497cbeb3859197f59ef3c9d","width":"1242","height":"2385"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165693109","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165699118,"gmtCreate":1624121771434,"gmtModify":1703829113476,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165699118","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165102714,"gmtCreate":1624102512538,"gmtModify":1703828842221,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>??","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f8fcebe909e0a820572ace59bb8fa0","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165102714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165963129,"gmtCreate":1624087833761,"gmtModify":1703828627127,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165963129","repostId":"1113942445","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162455805,"gmtCreate":1624072739307,"gmtModify":1703828244529,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nio ????","listText":"Nio ????","text":"Nio ????","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162455805","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162137311,"gmtCreate":1624040453633,"gmtModify":1703827475868,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Surely","listText":"Surely","text":"Surely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162137311","repostId":"1117650695","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117650695","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623902228,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117650695?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify: Valuation Should Not Be A Concern","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117650695","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Shopify is a leading merchant platform empowering mostly small online retailers.Shopify is set to grow revenues to $5b by 2023.Fulfillment center strategy makes Shopify a long-term threat to Amazon.Shopify is taking a larger bite out of the e-commerce market and the price is justified given Shopify's potential for rapid revenue growth.Shopify  is a strong buy as the merchant platform takes a bigger and bigger bite out of the expanding e-commerce market and revenues are growing rapidly. Shopify i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Shopify is a leading merchant platform empowering mostly small online retailers.</li>\n <li>Shopify is set to grow revenues to $5b by 2023.</li>\n <li>Fulfillment center strategy makes Shopify a long-term threat to Amazon.</li>\n <li>Shopify is taking a larger bite out of the e-commerce market and the price is justified given Shopify's potential for rapid revenue growth.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f3ab455f8b2c1956c4124771b084d9\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Shopify (SHOP) is a strong buy as the merchant platform takes a bigger and bigger bite out of the expanding e-commerce market and revenues are growing rapidly. Shopify is on its way to becoming a $5b annual revenue company and its fulfillment center strategy provides fertile ground for stock price appreciation. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)should be worried.</p>\n<p><b>Why Shopify is a strong buy</b></p>\n<p>Shopify enables people to start an online business relatively fast and with very little cost. Itse-commerce platform offers a suite of integrated products and apps that includes marketing functionality, payment processing and customer engagement tools. Shopify’s core services are paid for on a subscription basis with the most basic plan starting at $29-month.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0e35fa316c0fd7e939400d53fd623fb\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"266\"><span>(Source: Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>Thee-commerce market is booming, not just because of the pandemic. The ease of shopping and the wide distribution of mobile devices made online shopping popular even before COVID-19 emerged. Globale-commerce sales are expected to rise in the future with some estimates calling for global online sales of $4.9 trillion in 2021... with sales growing 30% to $6.4 trillion by 2024.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9918556cae0d9e7fdb0e58780b922413\" tg-width=\"907\" tg-height=\"460\"><span>(Source:Oberlo)</span></p>\n<p>Online sales are not only expected to grow in absolute terms but also relatively: E-Commerce is taking an ever-growing share of retail sales, a trend that accelerated during the 2020 pandemic year. Thee-commerce share of retail sales in 2020 was 18% and is projected to grow to 21.8% by 2024.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7297749c9cb665e56f89bb920507e5\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"463\"><span>(Source:Oberlo)</span></p>\n<p>Growth ine-commerce and merchandise volumes are not dependent on one particular category either. People buy everything from fashion items to personal care products online. According to Hootsuite’sDigital 2021 Global Overview Report, money spent on travel and accommodation cratered 51% due to the pandemic but all other categories grew sales by at least 18% Y/Y.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd515034ac6d1ea79da171cca44eacb0\" tg-width=\"1232\" tg-height=\"682\"><span>(Source: Digital 2021Global Overview Report)</span></p>\n<p>Shopify also saw a year of revenue acceleration during the pandemic… just like Amazon did. As people lost their jobs because of COVID-19 and remote working became the new standard, Shopify’s merchant platform gained in popularity, too. The pandemic also helped shift a lot of purchasing power online as retail stores and small businesses shut their doors. Shopify benefited from these unfortunate trends by experiencing a surge in revenues as more retailers built online stores and processed transactions through Shopify. Shopify’s revenues surged 86% to $2.9b in FY 2020.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47be367ae30fc395bd0cf9f998f5efc0\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"574\"><span>(Source:Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>Shopify’s revenues can be broken down into two parts, subscriptions and merchant solutions. Subscriptions include the payments for monthly plans and merchant solutions include additional costs for doing business through Shopify, such as payment processing fees and costs associated with Shopify Shipping and point-of-sale terminals. Revenues from merchant solutions have become more important for Shopify over time as the platform developed its ecosystem and created new apps and products for its merchants to use.</p>\n<p>2020 was a banner year for Shopify and its merchants. The gross merchandise value, the amount cumulatively sold through Shopify, doubled from $61.1b before the pandemic to $119.6b a year later. While 2020 growth rates will likely decline in 2021 as normal retail businesses open their doors again, merchandise volumes will continue to grow as thee-commerce market expands. I estimate that Shopify’s GMV will reach $210b for FY 2021 and $340b next year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845466a2e9dd8dcae9d4d3c4542611c9\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"546\"><span>(Source: Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>Shopify’s FY 2020 gross profits also saw rapid growth. Gross profits surged 78% to $1.6b with more growth expected in FY 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2530faf2d14eb2bb0f90d05694eba0b\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"544\"><span>(Source: Shopify)</span></p>\n<p><b>Taking on Amazon</b></p>\n<p>Shopify’s merchant platform shows healthy growth in subscriber and merchant revenues and merchant revenues are going to continue to grow in importance as Shopify signs up new partners and develops its apps suite. This is quite predictable.</p>\n<p>Longer term, however, Shopify should emerge as a growing threat to Amazon because of its investments in fulfillment centers. Entering the physical space is the next step in Shopify’s evolution and Amazon should be worried. Amazon is still the largeste-commerce platform, by far, but Shopify’s move into fulfillment centers is set to narrow this existing gap between the two companies. Amazon’s share of US retaile-commerce share is 4.5 times larger than Shopify’s giving Shopify a lot of potential to catch up...</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5108b1c5dead03ebaec97df972ed74f7\" tg-width=\"891\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>(Source: Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>Building its own fulfillment centers makes strategic sense for Shopify since it solves problems that a lot of online retailers have. Fulfillment centers, as the same implies, take over the function of fulfillment. This means a merchant that sells on Shopify sends goods to a warehouse and Shopify takes over order processing and shipping in return for a fee. The benefit for the retailer is obvious: Reduced shipping times and optimized inventory management.</p>\n<p>The benefit for Shopify: It can collect more revenues by controlling the fulfillment part of the sales process. While Shopify will build new fulfillment centers in the US as part of a $1b investment plan, it also provides Shopify with the option to use its US fulfillment network as a springboard to enter markets outside the US and drive its international expansion.</p>\n<p>Shopify is cashed up after the pandemic year and has more than enough cash to finance its expansion which in the future will likely include the expansion into international fulfillment markets. Shopify’s balance sheet is healthy enough to support the platform’s growth.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b284d5316a0604662b9dd5af30215f3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"542\"><span>(Source:Shopify)</span></p>\n<p>If Shopify and Amazon were to go toe-to-toe, Amazon would have a distinct advantage… because it is so much bigger than Shopify and because its website is drawing the most traffic as the number onee-commerce platform in the US. Amazon is about ten times bigger than Shopify regarding market value and Amazon has sales that are more than one hundred times larger than Shopify’s… so the battle between these twoe-commerce companies can be seen as a battle between David and Goliath, with Amazon being the Goliath.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d0d062b9a02247c1e38dc5b0c23343\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"500\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>But Shopify is growing its merchant platform fast and operates from a much smaller revenue base, which is easier to scale. Shopify has more than 1.7m merchants signed on to its platform from 175 countries and continually develops news complementary sources of revenues. In its latestproduct news, Shopify announced that it will make its “one-click checkout” available to all merchants selling on Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)&nbsp;and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)using Shop Pay. The integration is set to lower the “abandoned card” problem many retailers have which is customers not completing the checkout process. Shop Pay could provide a remedy to this problem by making the checkout process easier and more efficient.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Margins ine-commerce are very thin and growing competition in the industry will make things worse long term. The easy and relatively low-cost entry into thee-commerce market could also turn out to be a problem longer term. Companies that win ine-commerce are companies like Shopify with their own ecosystems that create a moat and protect against competition. Slowing revenue growth and an overblown valuation may be the two biggest risks for Shopify.</p>\n<p><b>You pay for Shopify's growth...</b></p>\n<p>By the end of next year Shopify should be a $5b annual revenue company, but the critical revenue milestone could be reached much sooner if Shopify manages to grow as fast as it did during the pandemic. The expectation is for Shopify to earn $4.35-share on revenues of $4.4b in FY 2021 with revenues scaling to ten-fold to $42b this decade. I believe fulfillment centers alone represent a $1b annual revenue opportunity for Shopify long term. Revenues for FY 2022 should also be closer to $6.5b with the consensus calling for revenues of \"only\" $5.9b.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add63adc4e771f68c7aa36779607334d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"286\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Amazon still has a big lead on Shopify, but the twoe-commerce companies are set to go toe-to-toe long term. Every new product that Shopify rolls out and every new fulfillment center it builds brings Shopify one step closer to taking Amazon head-on. Although Shopify is more expensive than Amazon on a per-dollar-of-revenue basis, the merchant platform clearly has the stature and ambition to take on Amazon.</p>\n<p>Shopify trades at a P-S ratio of 28, but you pay for growth...</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2f713ad31e8c26c8d670a737c252cdb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Shopify has an incredible long-term growth opportunity and Amazon should be worried.</p>\n<p>Shopify has proven to be a real innovator in the industry and constantly develops new products that make online shopping easier for both the online retailer and the merchant.</p>\n<p>Although Shopify has a much higher P-S ratio than Amazon, Shopify has more potential to grow because of its relatively smaller revenue base and market cap.</p>\n<p>The fulfillment center strategy makes a lot of strategic sense and will fortify Shopify's position in the e-commerce market. It can also fuel Shopify's international expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify: Valuation Should Not Be A Concern</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify: Valuation Should Not Be A Concern\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435237-shopify-set-to-fly-as-it-takes-on-amazon><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nShopify is a leading merchant platform empowering mostly small online retailers.\nShopify is set to grow revenues to $5b by 2023.\nFulfillment center strategy makes Shopify a long-term threat ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435237-shopify-set-to-fly-as-it-takes-on-amazon\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435237-shopify-set-to-fly-as-it-takes-on-amazon","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117650695","content_text":"Summary\n\nShopify is a leading merchant platform empowering mostly small online retailers.\nShopify is set to grow revenues to $5b by 2023.\nFulfillment center strategy makes Shopify a long-term threat to Amazon.\nShopify is taking a larger bite out of the e-commerce market and the price is justified given Shopify's potential for rapid revenue growth.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nShopify (SHOP) is a strong buy as the merchant platform takes a bigger and bigger bite out of the expanding e-commerce market and revenues are growing rapidly. Shopify is on its way to becoming a $5b annual revenue company and its fulfillment center strategy provides fertile ground for stock price appreciation. Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)should be worried.\nWhy Shopify is a strong buy\nShopify enables people to start an online business relatively fast and with very little cost. Itse-commerce platform offers a suite of integrated products and apps that includes marketing functionality, payment processing and customer engagement tools. Shopify’s core services are paid for on a subscription basis with the most basic plan starting at $29-month.\n(Source: Shopify)\nThee-commerce market is booming, not just because of the pandemic. The ease of shopping and the wide distribution of mobile devices made online shopping popular even before COVID-19 emerged. Globale-commerce sales are expected to rise in the future with some estimates calling for global online sales of $4.9 trillion in 2021... with sales growing 30% to $6.4 trillion by 2024.\n(Source:Oberlo)\nOnline sales are not only expected to grow in absolute terms but also relatively: E-Commerce is taking an ever-growing share of retail sales, a trend that accelerated during the 2020 pandemic year. Thee-commerce share of retail sales in 2020 was 18% and is projected to grow to 21.8% by 2024.\n(Source:Oberlo)\nGrowth ine-commerce and merchandise volumes are not dependent on one particular category either. People buy everything from fashion items to personal care products online. According to Hootsuite’sDigital 2021 Global Overview Report, money spent on travel and accommodation cratered 51% due to the pandemic but all other categories grew sales by at least 18% Y/Y.\n(Source: Digital 2021Global Overview Report)\nShopify also saw a year of revenue acceleration during the pandemic… just like Amazon did. As people lost their jobs because of COVID-19 and remote working became the new standard, Shopify’s merchant platform gained in popularity, too. The pandemic also helped shift a lot of purchasing power online as retail stores and small businesses shut their doors. Shopify benefited from these unfortunate trends by experiencing a surge in revenues as more retailers built online stores and processed transactions through Shopify. Shopify’s revenues surged 86% to $2.9b in FY 2020.\n(Source:Shopify)\nShopify’s revenues can be broken down into two parts, subscriptions and merchant solutions. Subscriptions include the payments for monthly plans and merchant solutions include additional costs for doing business through Shopify, such as payment processing fees and costs associated with Shopify Shipping and point-of-sale terminals. Revenues from merchant solutions have become more important for Shopify over time as the platform developed its ecosystem and created new apps and products for its merchants to use.\n2020 was a banner year for Shopify and its merchants. The gross merchandise value, the amount cumulatively sold through Shopify, doubled from $61.1b before the pandemic to $119.6b a year later. While 2020 growth rates will likely decline in 2021 as normal retail businesses open their doors again, merchandise volumes will continue to grow as thee-commerce market expands. I estimate that Shopify’s GMV will reach $210b for FY 2021 and $340b next year.\n(Source: Shopify)\nShopify’s FY 2020 gross profits also saw rapid growth. Gross profits surged 78% to $1.6b with more growth expected in FY 2021.\n(Source: Shopify)\nTaking on Amazon\nShopify’s merchant platform shows healthy growth in subscriber and merchant revenues and merchant revenues are going to continue to grow in importance as Shopify signs up new partners and develops its apps suite. This is quite predictable.\nLonger term, however, Shopify should emerge as a growing threat to Amazon because of its investments in fulfillment centers. Entering the physical space is the next step in Shopify’s evolution and Amazon should be worried. Amazon is still the largeste-commerce platform, by far, but Shopify’s move into fulfillment centers is set to narrow this existing gap between the two companies. Amazon’s share of US retaile-commerce share is 4.5 times larger than Shopify’s giving Shopify a lot of potential to catch up...\n(Source: Shopify)\nBuilding its own fulfillment centers makes strategic sense for Shopify since it solves problems that a lot of online retailers have. Fulfillment centers, as the same implies, take over the function of fulfillment. This means a merchant that sells on Shopify sends goods to a warehouse and Shopify takes over order processing and shipping in return for a fee. The benefit for the retailer is obvious: Reduced shipping times and optimized inventory management.\nThe benefit for Shopify: It can collect more revenues by controlling the fulfillment part of the sales process. While Shopify will build new fulfillment centers in the US as part of a $1b investment plan, it also provides Shopify with the option to use its US fulfillment network as a springboard to enter markets outside the US and drive its international expansion.\nShopify is cashed up after the pandemic year and has more than enough cash to finance its expansion which in the future will likely include the expansion into international fulfillment markets. Shopify’s balance sheet is healthy enough to support the platform’s growth.\n(Source:Shopify)\nIf Shopify and Amazon were to go toe-to-toe, Amazon would have a distinct advantage… because it is so much bigger than Shopify and because its website is drawing the most traffic as the number onee-commerce platform in the US. Amazon is about ten times bigger than Shopify regarding market value and Amazon has sales that are more than one hundred times larger than Shopify’s… so the battle between these twoe-commerce companies can be seen as a battle between David and Goliath, with Amazon being the Goliath.\nData by YCharts\nBut Shopify is growing its merchant platform fast and operates from a much smaller revenue base, which is easier to scale. Shopify has more than 1.7m merchants signed on to its platform from 175 countries and continually develops news complementary sources of revenues. In its latestproduct news, Shopify announced that it will make its “one-click checkout” available to all merchants selling on Facebook(NASDAQ:FB) and Google(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL)using Shop Pay. The integration is set to lower the “abandoned card” problem many retailers have which is customers not completing the checkout process. Shop Pay could provide a remedy to this problem by making the checkout process easier and more efficient.\nRisks\nMargins ine-commerce are very thin and growing competition in the industry will make things worse long term. The easy and relatively low-cost entry into thee-commerce market could also turn out to be a problem longer term. Companies that win ine-commerce are companies like Shopify with their own ecosystems that create a moat and protect against competition. Slowing revenue growth and an overblown valuation may be the two biggest risks for Shopify.\nYou pay for Shopify's growth...\nBy the end of next year Shopify should be a $5b annual revenue company, but the critical revenue milestone could be reached much sooner if Shopify manages to grow as fast as it did during the pandemic. The expectation is for Shopify to earn $4.35-share on revenues of $4.4b in FY 2021 with revenues scaling to ten-fold to $42b this decade. I believe fulfillment centers alone represent a $1b annual revenue opportunity for Shopify long term. Revenues for FY 2022 should also be closer to $6.5b with the consensus calling for revenues of \"only\" $5.9b.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nAmazon still has a big lead on Shopify, but the twoe-commerce companies are set to go toe-to-toe long term. Every new product that Shopify rolls out and every new fulfillment center it builds brings Shopify one step closer to taking Amazon head-on. Although Shopify is more expensive than Amazon on a per-dollar-of-revenue basis, the merchant platform clearly has the stature and ambition to take on Amazon.\nShopify trades at a P-S ratio of 28, but you pay for growth...\nData by YCharts\nFinal thoughts\nShopify has an incredible long-term growth opportunity and Amazon should be worried.\nShopify has proven to be a real innovator in the industry and constantly develops new products that make online shopping easier for both the online retailer and the merchant.\nAlthough Shopify has a much higher P-S ratio than Amazon, Shopify has more potential to grow because of its relatively smaller revenue base and market cap.\nThe fulfillment center strategy makes a lot of strategic sense and will fortify Shopify's position in the e-commerce market. It can also fuel Shopify's international 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>cool","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>cool","text":"$XPeng 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTNR\">$Vertex(VTNR)$</a>Keep going&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTNR\">$Vertex(VTNR)$</a>Keep going&nbsp;","text":"$Vertex(VTNR)$Keep going","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e0d270d0970f4f62af1ef450d7a99b","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/159597394","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150312238,"gmtCreate":1624887302924,"gmtModify":1703847044849,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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16:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198714523","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Tesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.Still, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla .Tes","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO is already well over a 10-bagger.</li>\n <li>Tesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.</li>\n <li>There are many EV competitors, but NIO has a proven track record of growth and innovation with international expansion, ADAS, autonomous driving and ADaaS, and battery swapping and BaaS.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO(NYSE:NIO)was far from the largest holding in my portfolio, but has grown well over 10x since the midst of its funding issues in late 2019. This was driven by a strong post-COVID-19 rebound and further growth of its EV sales. Further optionality was introduced with capacity expansion, the new, innovative BaaS business model, and potential international expansion to Europe.</p>\n<p>Still, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla (TSLA).</p>\n<p>Tesla stock had a similar success in 2020, which was capped off by its introduction in the S&amp;P 500. This arguably supports the view that EVs are, in fact, not a bubble. NIO, in that regard, should be regarded as the Chinese Tesla, and hence poised for further growth. China is also poised to become the silicon valley of EVs and also has supportive regulation towards autonomous driving.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, there are many competitors in EVs, not the least in China as well (also from Tesla). However, NIO is still one of the leading start-ups positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, with its proven track record of innovation and growth.</p>\n<p><b>Automotive disruption</b></p>\n<p>The automotive industry is undergoing major changes. The first major trend is towards energy sustainability. This has fueled the growth of EVs. Secondly, there is a strong economic incentive towards autonomous driving (called the \"passenger economy\"), which will further revolutionize transportation.</p>\n<p>This means this industry is open for disruption. This is indeed already unfolding, as can be seen in the trajectory of Tesla through the last decade, as one of the hallmarks of this.</p>\n<p>Even though it is an old, capital intensive business, Tesla proves that investors are willing to pay up to be part of this revolution. As noted, Tesla capped this off by its S&amp;P 500 inclusion and 500k deliveries in 2020, with continued strong growth at scale into 2021.</p>\n<p>In short, even though it could be seen as an old business, there is a large, greenfield opportunity in the drive towards electric, autonomous transportation. Hence, to be leading this disruption requires innovation.</p>\n<p><b>NIO: Chinese Tesla</b></p>\n<p>This opportunity is arguably so large that there does not necessarily have to be a winner-takes-all. Automotive is such a large market that it could be likened to e-commerce, for example. Amazon (AMZN) has been one of the largest beneficiaries of this secular growth trend. However, there are many others who have achieved a large scale and valuation growth, including Alibaba (BABA) and MercadoLibre (MELI).</p>\n<p>To that end, NIO is positioned to become in EVs and AVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce: the Chinese Tesla.</p>\n<p>NIO is a relatively young start-up, founded on the same premise of being a pure play EV automotive company, while also investing to be at forefront of ADAS and autonomous driving. It had a strong partnership with Mobileye. It was the first adopter of the former's EyeQ4 chip in 2018. NIO was also announced to be the first adopter of Mobileye's self-driving system, in 2022. This would likely be several years ahead of others, as Mobileye is targeting a 2025 introduction of (a broader introduction of) consumer AVs.</p>\n<p>It is, however, not entirely sure if (and perhaps even unlikely that) this Mobileye-powered autonomous vehicle will still launch, as going forward NIO is continuing with Nvidia (NVDA) hardware and developing its own software. In any case, NIO's timeline is unchanged, although it is not sure if NIO's own software will be as capable as Mobileye's. I previously covered this aspect of NIO here:NIO Stock: Autonomous Driving Too Good To Be True.</p>\n<p>In any case, NIO will bring another first to market with its Autonomous Driving-as-a-Service model or ADaaS. This will provide customer access to its autonomous driving capabilities through a monthly subscription.</p>\n<p>While there had been some funding issues and a slowdown in the midst of COVID-19, the image below shows that growth returned quickly. More recently, there have been issues due to the chip shortage, but those are obviously quite similar for the whole industry.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1373049969409b7fa8a90c380b6204e0\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>NIO's track record of growth and innovation is further completed by its introduction of the BaaS business model and plans for international expansion to Europe in 2021.</p>\n<p>BaaS or Battery-as-a-Service means that the EV is bought without the battery, which reduces the upfront price. The battery is then acquired separately through a subscription. BaaS was introduced in the second half of 2020 and quickly achieved a significant uptake of ~40%. BaaS also further complements NIO's previous innovation of battery swapping.</p>\n<p>Hence, this shows NIO is a leading innovator in the Chinese EV market, while investing to also lead the second, autonomous inflection. This is also a major market, as China is targeting a 25% EV market share by 2025. It could quickly become the silicon valley of EVs and even AVs. NIO's international ambition further underlines its leading position.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Some have called EVs a bubble. Both Tesla and NIO stock were on the order of a 10-bagger in 2020. In the comments below many articles, Tesla's valuation and deliveries are compared to the traditional OEMs. Supposedly this should show the large discrepancy in valuation.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, arguably this is not a bubble as the transition to EVs and subsequently AVs marks a major inflection. This means it is a large, largely greenfield growth opportunity. Hence, investors are willing to pay for this growth by investing in the companies who are leading. Moreover, EVs and AVs are also much closer aligned to tech investing, where higher valuations are more common.</p>\n<p>This is, of course, in spite of automotive being notorious for its capital intensity. NIO for its part (partly) solves this by not producing its vehicles itself, but partnering for manufacturing.</p>\n<p>There are other examples in tech where those who are seen as growth companies are rewarded with incredible valuations. For example, Nvidia has achieved almost 2x the valuation of Intel (INTC), despite over 3x lower revenue. TSMC (TSM) has over 2x the valuation of Intel despite almost 2x lower revenue. Of course, Nvidia and TSMC are growing faster than Intel, but that proves the point that high growth is often rewarded with perhaps unrealistic valuations.</p>\n<p>With regards to NIO's valuation, it (still) has ~10x lower market cap than Tesla (to be precise, about 8x at the time of writing), but also ~10x lower deliveries. Hence, NIO's valuation is in line with its bigger peer.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, as a smaller company, it is arguably NIO who that the largest relative growth prospects ahead. For example, Tesla investors who want to see substantial shareholder returns going forward have to bank on Tesla's goal to achieve 20M deliveries by 2030, which would be over a fifth of the total global vehicle market.</p>\n<p>If NIO for its part would be able to translate its innovation into continued, sustained growth, similar to Tesla, then there should be no reason for NIO to not continue to track the valuation of Tesla. This means NIO, indeed, may have another 10x upside or so if it closes the gap to Tesla in scale.</p>\n<p>From that view, NIO is lagging behind Tesla by multiple years, in both deliveries and market cap. The last comment could be as analogous to for examplePinterest(PINS), which is a company Iarguedwas lagging by several years to Facebook (FB).</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Of course, there are major risks. Mainly, this thesis is based on two assumptions:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tesla and other EV/AV stocks will continue to grow and receive elevated valuations as these trends continue to unfold;</li>\n <li>NIO is best positioned to most closely track Tesla's business and stock performance.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Any decrease in (relative) valuation could result in downside. For example, Tesla's ambition as laid out at its fall 2020 Battery Day event called for Tesla to achieve a scale of 20 million units by 2030. Hence, it is likely at least some part of that ambition for further growth is already priced into the stock.</p>\n<p>Needless to say, not every automotive or EV company will be able to achieve a scale of 20M units, as the global automotive market is below 100M units. There is both competition from traditional OEMs such as GM (GM) and Volkswagen, as well as other Chinese companiessuch as XPeng(XPEV).</p>\n<p>Additionally, although China seems to be one the largest markets for EVs in the near future, Tesla itself has already built its own Gigafactory in China, further increasing competition. Although the reverse is also partly true given NIO's own international expansion.</p>\n<p>The last risk for NIO growth it that is has expressed that it wants to remain a premium brand with relatively high ASPs (average selling prices). While this implies NIO could have above-average gross margins, it may nevertheless lower NIO's addressable market and hence potential future growth.</p>\n<p>Further, while NIO is heavily investing in autonomous driving and seems to be at the forefront of this next major inflection, it is ultimately reliant on third-party silicon vendors like Nvidia. This insight means pretty much by definition that AV technology may not remain a differentiated capability, as others will be able to buy the same off-the-shelf systems. Although as noted NIO is developing its own software, that itselfis also a riskgiven the difficulty in creating a scalable and reliable AV system.</p>\n<p>As described, though, NIO is a clear, leading innovator, and has achieved a strong brand value. This arguably makes it the strongest candidate to become the closest to a 'Chinese Tesla'.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>In the last 18 months or so, there has been a major shift in investment sentiment around EV companies. Tesla has seen 10-bagger returns. So when evaluating NIO, after its own 10-bagger returns (or more), to a valuation closer to $100B than $10B, on the surface this may change the investment narrative.</p>\n<p>However, at least a portion of NIO's large shareholder returns was because of its financial issues, which it has overcome; NIO's valuation is not significantly different from Tesla, for one. Meanwhile, its still much lower scale arguably leaves much room for upside.</p>\n<p>NIO's stock is based on NIO's growth to capitalize on the two-fold disruption of EVs and AVs in the automotive industry. NIO already has a proven track record of growth and innovation with battery swap, ADAS, autonomous driving (although with some increased risks given its change of supplier), ADaaS, BaaS, and even international expansion.</p>\n<p>While far from every company will be able to achieve a similar scale as Tesla, NIO clearly remains positioned to be successful in this space, which represents a large, greenfield opportunity in both the Chinese and international push towards electric and autonomous driving.</p>\n<p>This means NIO's valuation is both the risk and the reward. The reward is that NIO could realistically still expand by another 10x if it continues to trade at a similar valuation as Tesla, while closing the gap in scale. I likened NIO to the Alibaba of EVs: the Chinese counterpart of Amazon in EVs. The risk is NIO's ability to execute and deliver on its growth opportunity, as well as (just as importantly) as Tesla's and other EV stocks' valuation not collapsing on changes in investor sentiment.</p>\n<p>The bottom line (since NIO's peak in February) is that the potential opportunity that still lies ahead slightly outweighs the risk.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Still Has Significant Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-25 16:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO is already well over a 10-bagger.\nTesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436519-nio-still-has-upside-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1198714523","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is already well over a 10-bagger.\nTesla’s valuation, however, is still 10x larger than NIO, which suggests there may be plenty of upside left. NIO could become in EVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce.\nThere are many EV competitors, but NIO has a proven track record of growth and innovation with international expansion, ADAS, autonomous driving and ADaaS, and battery swapping and BaaS.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nNIO(NYSE:NIO)was far from the largest holding in my portfolio, but has grown well over 10x since the midst of its funding issues in late 2019. This was driven by a strong post-COVID-19 rebound and further growth of its EV sales. Further optionality was introduced with capacity expansion, the new, innovative BaaS business model, and potential international expansion to Europe.\nStill, one could argue that much if not all of those growth opportunities have been priced into the stock - which some havecalled the EV bubble. This, indeed, led me to review my position in NIO. Upon review, while there could certainly be downside, one could also argue that NIO is following a similar trajectory as Tesla (TSLA).\nTesla stock had a similar success in 2020, which was capped off by its introduction in the S&P 500. This arguably supports the view that EVs are, in fact, not a bubble. NIO, in that regard, should be regarded as the Chinese Tesla, and hence poised for further growth. China is also poised to become the silicon valley of EVs and also has supportive regulation towards autonomous driving.\nNevertheless, there are many competitors in EVs, not the least in China as well (also from Tesla). However, NIO is still one of the leading start-ups positioned to capitalize on this opportunity, with its proven track record of innovation and growth.\nAutomotive disruption\nThe automotive industry is undergoing major changes. The first major trend is towards energy sustainability. This has fueled the growth of EVs. Secondly, there is a strong economic incentive towards autonomous driving (called the \"passenger economy\"), which will further revolutionize transportation.\nThis means this industry is open for disruption. This is indeed already unfolding, as can be seen in the trajectory of Tesla through the last decade, as one of the hallmarks of this.\nEven though it is an old, capital intensive business, Tesla proves that investors are willing to pay up to be part of this revolution. As noted, Tesla capped this off by its S&P 500 inclusion and 500k deliveries in 2020, with continued strong growth at scale into 2021.\nIn short, even though it could be seen as an old business, there is a large, greenfield opportunity in the drive towards electric, autonomous transportation. Hence, to be leading this disruption requires innovation.\nNIO: Chinese Tesla\nThis opportunity is arguably so large that there does not necessarily have to be a winner-takes-all. Automotive is such a large market that it could be likened to e-commerce, for example. Amazon (AMZN) has been one of the largest beneficiaries of this secular growth trend. However, there are many others who have achieved a large scale and valuation growth, including Alibaba (BABA) and MercadoLibre (MELI).\nTo that end, NIO is positioned to become in EVs and AVs what Alibaba is to Amazon in e-commerce: the Chinese Tesla.\nNIO is a relatively young start-up, founded on the same premise of being a pure play EV automotive company, while also investing to be at forefront of ADAS and autonomous driving. It had a strong partnership with Mobileye. It was the first adopter of the former's EyeQ4 chip in 2018. NIO was also announced to be the first adopter of Mobileye's self-driving system, in 2022. This would likely be several years ahead of others, as Mobileye is targeting a 2025 introduction of (a broader introduction of) consumer AVs.\nIt is, however, not entirely sure if (and perhaps even unlikely that) this Mobileye-powered autonomous vehicle will still launch, as going forward NIO is continuing with Nvidia (NVDA) hardware and developing its own software. In any case, NIO's timeline is unchanged, although it is not sure if NIO's own software will be as capable as Mobileye's. I previously covered this aspect of NIO here:NIO Stock: Autonomous Driving Too Good To Be True.\nIn any case, NIO will bring another first to market with its Autonomous Driving-as-a-Service model or ADaaS. This will provide customer access to its autonomous driving capabilities through a monthly subscription.\nWhile there had been some funding issues and a slowdown in the midst of COVID-19, the image below shows that growth returned quickly. More recently, there have been issues due to the chip shortage, but those are obviously quite similar for the whole industry.\n\nNIO's track record of growth and innovation is further completed by its introduction of the BaaS business model and plans for international expansion to Europe in 2021.\nBaaS or Battery-as-a-Service means that the EV is bought without the battery, which reduces the upfront price. The battery is then acquired separately through a subscription. BaaS was introduced in the second half of 2020 and quickly achieved a significant uptake of ~40%. BaaS also further complements NIO's previous innovation of battery swapping.\nHence, this shows NIO is a leading innovator in the Chinese EV market, while investing to also lead the second, autonomous inflection. This is also a major market, as China is targeting a 25% EV market share by 2025. It could quickly become the silicon valley of EVs and even AVs. NIO's international ambition further underlines its leading position.\nValuation\nSome have called EVs a bubble. Both Tesla and NIO stock were on the order of a 10-bagger in 2020. In the comments below many articles, Tesla's valuation and deliveries are compared to the traditional OEMs. Supposedly this should show the large discrepancy in valuation.\nNevertheless, arguably this is not a bubble as the transition to EVs and subsequently AVs marks a major inflection. This means it is a large, largely greenfield growth opportunity. Hence, investors are willing to pay for this growth by investing in the companies who are leading. Moreover, EVs and AVs are also much closer aligned to tech investing, where higher valuations are more common.\nThis is, of course, in spite of automotive being notorious for its capital intensity. NIO for its part (partly) solves this by not producing its vehicles itself, but partnering for manufacturing.\nThere are other examples in tech where those who are seen as growth companies are rewarded with incredible valuations. For example, Nvidia has achieved almost 2x the valuation of Intel (INTC), despite over 3x lower revenue. TSMC (TSM) has over 2x the valuation of Intel despite almost 2x lower revenue. Of course, Nvidia and TSMC are growing faster than Intel, but that proves the point that high growth is often rewarded with perhaps unrealistic valuations.\nWith regards to NIO's valuation, it (still) has ~10x lower market cap than Tesla (to be precise, about 8x at the time of writing), but also ~10x lower deliveries. Hence, NIO's valuation is in line with its bigger peer.\nNevertheless, as a smaller company, it is arguably NIO who that the largest relative growth prospects ahead. For example, Tesla investors who want to see substantial shareholder returns going forward have to bank on Tesla's goal to achieve 20M deliveries by 2030, which would be over a fifth of the total global vehicle market.\nIf NIO for its part would be able to translate its innovation into continued, sustained growth, similar to Tesla, then there should be no reason for NIO to not continue to track the valuation of Tesla. This means NIO, indeed, may have another 10x upside or so if it closes the gap to Tesla in scale.\nFrom that view, NIO is lagging behind Tesla by multiple years, in both deliveries and market cap. The last comment could be as analogous to for examplePinterest(PINS), which is a company Iarguedwas lagging by several years to Facebook (FB).\nRisks\nOf course, there are major risks. Mainly, this thesis is based on two assumptions:\n\nTesla and other EV/AV stocks will continue to grow and receive elevated valuations as these trends continue to unfold;\nNIO is best positioned to most closely track Tesla's business and stock performance.\n\nAny decrease in (relative) valuation could result in downside. For example, Tesla's ambition as laid out at its fall 2020 Battery Day event called for Tesla to achieve a scale of 20 million units by 2030. Hence, it is likely at least some part of that ambition for further growth is already priced into the stock.\nNeedless to say, not every automotive or EV company will be able to achieve a scale of 20M units, as the global automotive market is below 100M units. There is both competition from traditional OEMs such as GM (GM) and Volkswagen, as well as other Chinese companiessuch as XPeng(XPEV).\nAdditionally, although China seems to be one the largest markets for EVs in the near future, Tesla itself has already built its own Gigafactory in China, further increasing competition. Although the reverse is also partly true given NIO's own international expansion.\nThe last risk for NIO growth it that is has expressed that it wants to remain a premium brand with relatively high ASPs (average selling prices). While this implies NIO could have above-average gross margins, it may nevertheless lower NIO's addressable market and hence potential future growth.\nFurther, while NIO is heavily investing in autonomous driving and seems to be at the forefront of this next major inflection, it is ultimately reliant on third-party silicon vendors like Nvidia. This insight means pretty much by definition that AV technology may not remain a differentiated capability, as others will be able to buy the same off-the-shelf systems. Although as noted NIO is developing its own software, that itselfis also a riskgiven the difficulty in creating a scalable and reliable AV system.\nAs described, though, NIO is a clear, leading innovator, and has achieved a strong brand value. This arguably makes it the strongest candidate to become the closest to a 'Chinese Tesla'.\nTakeaway\nIn the last 18 months or so, there has been a major shift in investment sentiment around EV companies. Tesla has seen 10-bagger returns. So when evaluating NIO, after its own 10-bagger returns (or more), to a valuation closer to $100B than $10B, on the surface this may change the investment narrative.\nHowever, at least a portion of NIO's large shareholder returns was because of its financial issues, which it has overcome; NIO's valuation is not significantly different from Tesla, for one. Meanwhile, its still much lower scale arguably leaves much room for upside.\nNIO's stock is based on NIO's growth to capitalize on the two-fold disruption of EVs and AVs in the automotive industry. NIO already has a proven track record of growth and innovation with battery swap, ADAS, autonomous driving (although with some increased risks given its change of supplier), ADaaS, BaaS, and even international expansion.\nWhile far from every company will be able to achieve a similar scale as Tesla, NIO clearly remains positioned to be successful in this space, which represents a large, greenfield opportunity in both the Chinese and international push towards electric and autonomous driving.\nThis means NIO's valuation is both the risk and the reward. The reward is that NIO could realistically still expand by another 10x if it continues to trade at a similar valuation as Tesla, while closing the gap in scale. I likened NIO to the Alibaba of EVs: the Chinese counterpart of Amazon in EVs. The risk is NIO's ability to execute and deliver on its growth opportunity, as well as (just as importantly) as Tesla's and other EV stocks' valuation not collapsing on changes in investor sentiment.\nThe bottom line (since NIO's peak in February) is that the potential opportunity that still lies ahead slightly outweighs the risk.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167784273,"gmtCreate":1624285041792,"gmtModify":1703832492028,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167784273","repostId":"1154249454","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":79,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164337307,"gmtCreate":1624170896909,"gmtModify":1703830107883,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wao","listText":"Wao","text":"Wao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164337307","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165693109,"gmtCreate":1624121859501,"gmtModify":1703829114954,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$</a>???","text":"$XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29346ab2e497cbeb3859197f59ef3c9d","width":"1242","height":"2385"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165693109","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162137942,"gmtCreate":1624040442086,"gmtModify":1703827475545,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162137942","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":28,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168953216,"gmtCreate":1623947632335,"gmtModify":1703824463909,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168953216","repostId":"1175322624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175322624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623940991,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175322624?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fisker Jumps on EV-Production Pact With Magna International","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175322624","media":".thestreet","summary":"Fisker   was higher after it said it signed an agreement under which Magna International,  the mobility technology company, would produce its electric vehicles.As part of the partnership, Fisker's all-electric Ocean SUV is expected to start production at the Aurora, Ontario, company's facility in Graz, Austria, starting Nov. 17, 2022.\"From the start of this partnership, Fisker and Magna aligned very quickly on the importance of delivering a high-quality vehicle on time,\" Chief Executive Henrik F","content":"<p>Fisker&nbsp;(<b>FSR</b>) &nbsp;was higher after it&nbsp;said&nbsp;it signed an agreement under which Magna International,&nbsp;(<b>MGA</b>)&nbsp;the mobility technology company, would produce its electric vehicles.</p>\n<p>As part of the partnership, Fisker's all-electric Ocean SUV is expected to start production at the Aurora, Ontario, company's facility in Graz, Austria, starting Nov. 17, 2022.</p>\n<p>\"From the start of this partnership, Fisker and Magna aligned very quickly on the importance of delivering a high-quality vehicle on time,\" Chief Executive Henrik Fisker said in a statement.</p>\n<p>The Graz manufacturing facility has produced more than 3.7 million vehicles for several global automakers.</p>\n<p>The agreement is \"broad-based\" covering planned volumes, manufacturing costs and quality metrics over the program's lifecycle which runs through 2029.</p>\n<p>The Ocean SUV from the Los Angeles company will use a version of a Magna-developed electric-vehicle architecture. Fisker will modify that architecture to create new intellectual property that it expects to deliver \"class-leading range\" while also lowering manufacturing costs.</p>\n<p>Fisker now expects Ocean to enter the market with a starting list price of $37,499 in the U.S., excluding electric vehicle-related subsidies, and below&nbsp;€32,000 ($38,200) in Germany (including taxes and EV-related subsidies).</p>\n<p>\"Our asset-lite model, reinforced by partners like Magna, is powering Fisker towards its planned delivery of the Ocean with features and functions exceeding our original aspirations,\" said Fisker. He added that the company is scaling rapidly.</p>\n<p>Fisker shares at last check were 3.1% higher at $18.29. Magna's shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange were off 0.5% at $92.74.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fisker Jumps on EV-Production Pact With Magna International</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFisker Jumps on EV-Production Pact With Magna International\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 22:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fisker-higher-after-finalizing-magna-intl-production-agreement><strong>.thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fisker (FSR)  was higher after it said it signed an agreement under which Magna International, (MGA) the mobility technology company, would produce its electric vehicles.\nAs part of the partnership, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fisker-higher-after-finalizing-magna-intl-production-agreement\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/fisker-higher-after-finalizing-magna-intl-production-agreement","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175322624","content_text":"Fisker (FSR)  was higher after it said it signed an agreement under which Magna International, (MGA) the mobility technology company, would produce its electric vehicles.\nAs part of the partnership, Fisker's all-electric Ocean SUV is expected to start production at the Aurora, Ontario, company's facility in Graz, Austria, starting Nov. 17, 2022.\n\"From the start of this partnership, Fisker and Magna aligned very quickly on the importance of delivering a high-quality vehicle on time,\" Chief Executive Henrik Fisker said in a statement.\nThe Graz manufacturing facility has produced more than 3.7 million vehicles for several global automakers.\nThe agreement is \"broad-based\" covering planned volumes, manufacturing costs and quality metrics over the program's lifecycle which runs through 2029.\nThe Ocean SUV from the Los Angeles company will use a version of a Magna-developed electric-vehicle architecture. Fisker will modify that architecture to create new intellectual property that it expects to deliver \"class-leading range\" while also lowering manufacturing costs.\nFisker now expects Ocean to enter the market with a starting list price of $37,499 in the U.S., excluding electric vehicle-related subsidies, and below €32,000 ($38,200) in Germany (including taxes and EV-related subsidies).\n\"Our asset-lite model, reinforced by partners like Magna, is powering Fisker towards its planned delivery of the Ocean with features and functions exceeding our original aspirations,\" said Fisker. He added that the company is scaling rapidly.\nFisker shares at last check were 3.1% higher at $18.29. Magna's shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange were off 0.5% at $92.74.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160171194,"gmtCreate":1623776664418,"gmtModify":1703819235293,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160171194","repostId":"1117313016","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117313016","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623680913,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1117313016?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117313016","media":"thestreet","summary":"Corsair Gaming  -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program","content":"<p>Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.</p>\n<p>Data from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.</p>\n<p>TheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.</p>\n<p>\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"</p>\n<p>\"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said.&nbsp;\"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"</p>\n<p>\"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.</p>\n<p>Corsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.</p>\n<p>Last month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Corsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCorsair Surges Amid Meme Rally; Jim Cramer Warns on High-Level Sellers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 22:28 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers><strong>thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Corsair Gaming (CRSR) -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.\nData from theYolosocks.livewebsite...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRSR":"Corsair Gaming, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/corsair-surges-in-latest-meme-rally-jim-cramer-warns-on-sellers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117313016","content_text":"Corsair Gaming (CRSR) -Get Report shares surged higher Monday as the gaming and content equipment-maker appeared to add its name to the list of meme stock favorites.\nData from theYolosocks.livewebsite, which tracks real-time mentions on stocks within Reddit's r/wallstreetbets chatroom, indicates that Corsair is the second most-discussed stock among users, up from a previous rank of 11, over the past 24 hours and more than 860 mentions.\nTheStreet's founder Jim Cramer, however, cautioned that such a steep rise for a fundamentally sound stock like Corsair would likely entice large-scale sellers at these levels.\n\"Corsair is a company I like very much, because it's basically a souped-up Logitech and Logitech's been a great stock\" Cramer told CNBC's Squawk on The Street program. \"They have the high-performance equipment you need to dominate in e-sports and I think e-sports are here to stay.\"\n\"I don't know why the 'meme' people have a monopoly on whatever they play with,\" Cramer said. \"No Wall Street analyst could move Corsair this much, so for people who've been waiting for the stock to go to $37 and now it's at $41, those people aren't going to turn buyers. They're sellers.\"\n\"The meme people think they're hurting the hedge funds, when in fact they're a tool to the hedge funds,\" Cramer said.\nCorsair shares were marked 19.3% higher in early trading Monday to change hands at $38.60 each -- after hitting a session high of $42.97 at the opening bell -- in a move that bumps the stock's year-to-date gain to around 12%.\nLast month, Corsair posted first quarter earnings of $80 million on revenues of $529 million thanks to surging growth in its gaming nd peripherals business, which saw sales rise by 132% when compared to last year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153250068,"gmtCreate":1625029065754,"gmtModify":1703850506806,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTNR\">$Vertex(VTNR)$</a>Nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VTNR\">$Vertex(VTNR)$</a>Nice","text":"$Vertex(VTNR)$Nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17cdec4920495b713e4a3f5275b7331b","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153250068","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129498558,"gmtCreate":1624379825974,"gmtModify":1703835118332,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129498558","repostId":"1164714575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164714575","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624369315,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164714575?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 21:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power moves higher following mixed Q1 results","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164714575","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(June 22) Plug Power had a mixed earnings report, missing on its bottom line but reporting better-th","content":"<p>(June 22)&nbsp;Plug Power had a mixed earnings report, missing on its bottom line but reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue. Still, shares edged higher in morning trading&nbsp;Tuesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c95193b7e71aa70fb34e84ee562115\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Plug Power Missed Earnings Estimates. Why Its Stock Is Gaining？</b></p>\n<p>Hydrogen fuel cell technology provider Plug Power reported somewhat disappointing first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Its stock is rising anyway in premarket trading.</p>\n<p>The report signals things are calming down at the company, after results were delayed by accounting issues.</p>\n<p>Plug (ticker: PLUG) reported a loss of 12 cents per share from $72 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for an 8 cent loss from $69 million in sales. It’s an earning miss, but earnings for a smaller company with big growth plans isn’t as important as sales. Plug’s 2021 sales are expected to be $465 million, growing to more than $1 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p>Plug also ended the quarter with more than $4.3 billion in cash on the balance sheet.</p>\n<p>Plug stock rose 0.5% in premarket trading. S&amp;P 500 futures are flat.</p>\n<p>It took a while for the company to report its first quarter. In 2020, Plug reported first-quarter results on May 7. This year, however, accounting issues—disclosed in March—got in the way. The company ended up restating some older results after changing the accounting for customer contracts. Cash wasn’t affected by the restatements.</p>\n<p>The accounting-related delay is another reasons the stock isn’t doing much after the release of actual earnings. Amid all the restatements and updates, investors had a good sense of what was coming for the first quarter. Several times in May, Plug management had said sales would be greater than $67 million.</p>\n<p>Plug management hosts a conference call for analysts and investors at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors will be eager to hear about second-quarter sales, which are expected to be more than $100 million.</p>\n<p>Year to date, Plug stock is down about 12%, trailing behind comparable gains of the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Many renewable energy stocks have struggled in 2021 after amazing 2020 gains. Stock in electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), for instance, is down about 12% year to date after rising 743% in 2020. Plug stock rose 973% in 2020.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power moves higher following mixed Q1 results</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power moves higher following mixed Q1 results\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-22 21:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(June 22)&nbsp;Plug Power had a mixed earnings report, missing on its bottom line but reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue. Still, shares edged higher in morning trading&nbsp;Tuesday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c95193b7e71aa70fb34e84ee562115\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Plug Power Missed Earnings Estimates. Why Its Stock Is Gaining？</b></p>\n<p>Hydrogen fuel cell technology provider Plug Power reported somewhat disappointing first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Its stock is rising anyway in premarket trading.</p>\n<p>The report signals things are calming down at the company, after results were delayed by accounting issues.</p>\n<p>Plug (ticker: PLUG) reported a loss of 12 cents per share from $72 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for an 8 cent loss from $69 million in sales. It’s an earning miss, but earnings for a smaller company with big growth plans isn’t as important as sales. Plug’s 2021 sales are expected to be $465 million, growing to more than $1 billion by 2023.</p>\n<p>Plug also ended the quarter with more than $4.3 billion in cash on the balance sheet.</p>\n<p>Plug stock rose 0.5% in premarket trading. S&amp;P 500 futures are flat.</p>\n<p>It took a while for the company to report its first quarter. In 2020, Plug reported first-quarter results on May 7. This year, however, accounting issues—disclosed in March—got in the way. The company ended up restating some older results after changing the accounting for customer contracts. Cash wasn’t affected by the restatements.</p>\n<p>The accounting-related delay is another reasons the stock isn’t doing much after the release of actual earnings. Amid all the restatements and updates, investors had a good sense of what was coming for the first quarter. Several times in May, Plug management had said sales would be greater than $67 million.</p>\n<p>Plug management hosts a conference call for analysts and investors at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors will be eager to hear about second-quarter sales, which are expected to be more than $100 million.</p>\n<p>Year to date, Plug stock is down about 12%, trailing behind comparable gains of the S&amp;P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Many renewable energy stocks have struggled in 2021 after amazing 2020 gains. Stock in electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), for instance, is down about 12% year to date after rising 743% in 2020. Plug stock rose 973% in 2020.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164714575","content_text":"(June 22) Plug Power had a mixed earnings report, missing on its bottom line but reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue. Still, shares edged higher in morning trading Tuesday.\n\nPlug Power Missed Earnings Estimates. Why Its Stock Is Gaining？\nHydrogen fuel cell technology provider Plug Power reported somewhat disappointing first-quarter earnings on Tuesday. Its stock is rising anyway in premarket trading.\nThe report signals things are calming down at the company, after results were delayed by accounting issues.\nPlug (ticker: PLUG) reported a loss of 12 cents per share from $72 million in sales. Wall Street was looking for an 8 cent loss from $69 million in sales. It’s an earning miss, but earnings for a smaller company with big growth plans isn’t as important as sales. Plug’s 2021 sales are expected to be $465 million, growing to more than $1 billion by 2023.\nPlug also ended the quarter with more than $4.3 billion in cash on the balance sheet.\nPlug stock rose 0.5% in premarket trading. S&P 500 futures are flat.\nIt took a while for the company to report its first quarter. In 2020, Plug reported first-quarter results on May 7. This year, however, accounting issues—disclosed in March—got in the way. The company ended up restating some older results after changing the accounting for customer contracts. Cash wasn’t affected by the restatements.\nThe accounting-related delay is another reasons the stock isn’t doing much after the release of actual earnings. Amid all the restatements and updates, investors had a good sense of what was coming for the first quarter. Several times in May, Plug management had said sales would be greater than $67 million.\nPlug management hosts a conference call for analysts and investors at 8:30 a.m. ET. Investors will be eager to hear about second-quarter sales, which are expected to be more than $100 million.\nYear to date, Plug stock is down about 12%, trailing behind comparable gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Many renewable energy stocks have struggled in 2021 after amazing 2020 gains. Stock in electric-vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA), for instance, is down about 12% year to date after rising 743% in 2020. Plug stock rose 973% in 2020.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120396027,"gmtCreate":1624295877769,"gmtModify":1703832860853,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/120396027","repostId":"1127414335","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127414335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624288763,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127414335?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-21 23:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127414335","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to con","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>After a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</li>\n <li>Amazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).</li>\n <li>The stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.</li>\n <li>Today, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.</p>\n<p>The primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.</p>\n<p>After evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.</p>\n<p><b>The Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation</b></p>\n<p>At BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.</p>\n<p>Here's our extensive research work on Amazon:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Retail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth</li>\n <li>Amazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring</li>\n <li>Digital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ef0b4ba9477ffe4662dd02b4a4fe56\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Now, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&amp;P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/450a291ce832606dc4568f5b000a234b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>After rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.</p>\n<p><b>Why Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?</b></p>\n<p>In Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/484d6ffb34aa711d2460f56878a19b30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>With acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f684da9379808e65eb00bac24f21bd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>As you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de1ec1d647bed5d59e91bdaa0535d25e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\"></p>\n<p>Source:&nbsp;Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release</p>\n<p>Since 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f1ccee71f8675c6cabd16cf4e08733d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>The massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c041f8732f0e9557d632f4bc3444b54\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\"></p>\n<p>Source: YCharts</p>\n<p>Amazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6b99e2dd54b3885cd7542d213be0429\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Source:Seeking Alpha</p>\n<p>I believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.</p>\n<p><b>Fair Value And Expected Returns</b></p>\n<p>To determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>In step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).</p></li>\n <li><p>In step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>With massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.</p>\n<p><b>Assumptions:</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82136b2cd82ebf242b95eb6d17e2f4b1\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"538\"></p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a3cb8964e421080c530abc1b3d62bf\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"729\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.</p>\n<p>To calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.</p>\n<p>Here are the results:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb09f1799ac5ea2741e204766b4df3c\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"429\">Source: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model</p>\n<p>As you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Furthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.</li>\n <li>Since Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.</li>\n <li>In the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.</li>\n <li>For the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.</li>\n <li>Also, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.</li>\n <li>Amazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.</li>\n <li>The healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Concluding Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.</p>\n<p>In the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.</p>\n<p>Key Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.</p>\n<p>Thanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon's Stock Is Ready For The Next Leg Higher\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 23:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435860-amazons-stock-is-ready-for-the-next-leg-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1127414335","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter a year-long consolidation in stock prices, Amazon looks set to move higher due to continued momentum in its higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nAmazon looks poised to blow past $500B in annual sales in 2021 with massive improvements in operating margins (profitability).\nThe stock is trading well below its fair value of $5,900 per share, and investors could generate ~19% CAGR returns over the next decade with Amazon.\nToday, I will share my analysis that suggests a fresh leg higher for Amazon's stock. Furthermore, we will discuss some of the key risks faced by the company.\n\nInvestment Thesis\nAmazon (AMZN) is delivering robust revenue and profitability growth in 2021 on top of the stellar numbers registered during the pandemic in 2020. However, investors watching Amazon's stock over the last 12 months or so would be led to think otherwise. After a big move last year, the stock has virtually frozen since mid 2020. In times where meme stock investors are making a lot of tendies (profits), Amazon's near-term underperformance has been disappointing for many long-term investors. However, things could look a lot different in the next 6-12 months. Amazon is set to scale new highs, and I will outline why that's the case in this article.\nThe primary driver of a company's price is free cash flow, and Amazon is poised to deliver a lot more of it. Amazon's higher-margin businesses, i.e., Amazon Web Services and Digital Ads (hidden in the \"Other\" segment in financial statements), are seeing accelerated growth. Furthermore, Amazon's e-commerce business also is delivering huge amounts of free cash flow at scale. Over the last 12 months, Amazon garnered $67B of cash from operations, which represents a 69% year-over-year jump. With business showing no signs of slowing down in the post-pandemic world and impending reduction in pandemic costs (billions of dollars per quarter), Amazon could very well deliver a big jump in free cash flow this year. As you may know, Amazon's balance sheet already is a fortress. However, the cash pile is getting so large that initiation of a capital return program could become imperative in the next three to four years.\nAfter evaluating Amazon using the LASV model, I deduced that the company is worth ~$5,900 per share. This projection means that Amazon is massively undervalued at the moment. Over the last 12 months, Amazon's trading multiples have shrunk back to normalized levels and future growth in revenue and free cash flow are very likely to result in higher stock prices.\nThe Tale Of A Year-Long Consolidation\nAt BTM, we own Amazon since it was at around $1,750. However, after a big rally in 2020, we rated the stock a modest buy for quite some time. And so, we are not really surprised by the year-long consolidation.\nHere's our extensive research work on Amazon:\n\nRetail Ecosystem -Amazon: Here Is What The Retail Segment Is Worth\nAmazon Web Services -Amazon: Here's What You Should Be Monitoring\nDigital Ads -Amazon: The 'Other' Segment May Be Worth More Than AWS\n\nSource: YCharts\nNow, our modest buy ratings from last year have been justified. Amazon has underperformed the S&P 500 index by around 6% in the previous 12-month period. With continued business momentum and stagnant stock price, Amazon's trading multiples have been falling down rapidly since August-2020.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAfter rapid normalization in trading multiples due to excellent financial performance, we upgraded the stock at BTM after the latest quarterly report. Although Amazon's underperformance over the last year has been demoralizing for long-term investors, I believe this is the right time to get onboard before a fresh rally ensues in the stock.\nWhy Is Amazon Ready To Move Higher?\nIn Q1 2021, Amazon recorded net sales of $108B (up +44% y/y) on the back of swift acceleration in AWS and Ad revenues (\"Other\" segment). Furthermore, we're seeing continued momentum in Amazon's e-commerce and streaming businesses. The following data serves as evidence for the same:\n\nSource:Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nWith acceleration in higher-margin revenue lines, Amazon's operating margin (profitability) is improving rapidly. In the latest quarter, Amazon's TTM operating margins reached an all-time high of 6.63%. At this point, I recommend you read our research coverage on Amazon (shared earlier in this article) to understand the dynamics at play in different business lines at the company.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAs you may already know, Amazon is an emerging operating leverage story. In Q1, Amazon's operating income increased by ~122% y/y to come in at $8.865B (rapid q/q acceleration). Over the next 12 months, Amazon would likely deliver an operating income of ~$40-50B. This massive jump in operating income will translate into greater amounts of free cash flow (and, by extension, a higher share price).\n\nSource: Amazon Q1 2021 Earnings Release\nSince 2018, Amazon has seen a big jump in Cash from Operations, which has gone up ~3.5x from ~$20B per year to ~$70B per year in 2021. Amazon, being Amazon, has invested massive amounts of this cash back into its business to drive future revenue growth, resulting in lower levels of free cash flow ($26.5B in 2020). Therefore, I believe Amazon's true free cash flow is much higher than its reported numbers.\nSource: YCharts\nThe massive amounts of cash being generated by Amazon are starting to pile up on the balance sheet (which had roughly $34B of cash at the end of last quarter). Further margin expansion is likely to create even more free cash flow over coming quarters and years, and this cash pile will only grow bigger. At some point in the near future, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders through buybacks or dividends. My estimate is that Amazon would start a capital return program by 2025, but I will discuss this prediction in a separate note in the future.\n\nSource: YCharts\nAmazon is expected to record ~$500B in annual sales in 2021 and I expect Amazon to take over the title of the \"largest company by sales\" in 2022. In my opinion, Amazon still has massive growth left in its armory. According to consensus analyst estimates on Seeking Alpha, Amazon would likely be raking in revenue of $1.5T per year by 2030.\n\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nI believe these numbers are achievable. In fact, they're very likely to materialize over the next decade. AWS, Digital Ads, and Amazon Care (in-house healthcare offering (at least for now)) are likely to be the primary drivers of future free cash flow for the company. Now, let's estimate the fair value and expected returns for Amazon.\nFair Value And Expected Returns\nTo determine Amazon's fair value, we will employ our proprietary valuation model. Here's what it entails:\n\nIn step 1, we use a traditional DCF model with free cash flow discounted by our (shareholders) cost of capital.\nIn step 2, the model accounts for the effects of the change in shares outstanding (buybacks/dilutions).\nIn step 3, we normalize valuation for future growth prospects at the end of the 10 years. Then, using today's share price and the projected share price at the end of 10 years, we arrive at a CAGR. If this beats the market by enough of a margin, we invest. If not, we wait for a better entry point.\n\nWith massive amounts of cash flow being generated from operations, Amazon could soon find itself with the good problem of having too much cash on its balance sheet. At some point over the next decade, Amazon will need to start returning capital to shareholders (via buybacks or dividends). I will share my analysis as to when that would happen some other time. However, for now, we will build our valuation without accounting for future capital return programs.\nAssumptions:\n\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs per my estimation, Amazon is worth ~$5,900 per share. The stock is trading at ~$3,400, which means Amazon has a near-term upside of +73.5% to its fair value. By utilizing conservative assumptions, we have ensured that our valuation has an ample margin of safety built into it.\nTo calculate the total expected return, we simply grow the above free cash flow per share at our conservative growth rate, then assign a conservative multiple, i.e., 30x, to it for year 10. This creates a conservative intrinsic value projection by which we determine when and where to deploy our capital.\nHere are the results:\nSource: L.A. Stevens Valuation Model\nAs you can see above, Amazon's stock price could grow from ~$3,400 to ~$18,750 at a CAGR of ~18.6% in the next 10 years. Since we haven't considered future buybacks and dividends in today's valuation, there's a good chance that Amazon will outperform our expected return projections. My investment hurdle rate is 15%, and since Amazon's expected return is above this level, I rate Amazon a buy.\nRisks\n\nAmazon's visionary founder, Jeff Bezos, is set to step down as Amazon CEO and transition to the role of Executive Chairman of the Board. His replacement is AWS CEO Andy Jassy, who is a very capable business leader, as evidenced by AWS's rise from zero to $50 billion annual revenue business in just 15 years. However, an executive leadership change of this magnitude carries several risks, and we will be keeping a keen eye on Andy over the next few earning calls to understand his vision for Amazon.\nFurthermore, the leadership transition comes at a time when Amazon is facing rising pressure from regulators and lawmakers. In the recent big tech antitrust hearing, most lawmakers came away with the conclusion that Amazon is anti competitive (along with Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL)). With the threat of a DOJ investigation looming large, investors might be nervous about potential outcomes. Any monetary fine would simply be the cost of doing business. For years, Amazon's FCF machine - AWS - has supported the aggressive expansion (anti-competitive behavior) of its retail ecosystem. Therefore, a potential (government-enforced) break up of Amazon is viewed by many as a massive risk for the company. However, Amazon's retail ecosystem is self sustainable now (generates positive FCF), and any breakup could unlock value for shareholders. We shared our views on this topic in thisnote.\nSince Amazon's Ads business is not reliant on personal information for Ad targeting (unlike Facebook and Alphabet), we do not see any major headwinds for this still-emerging, yet crucial business line.\nIn the near term, Amazon's e-commerce business could come under pressure as life returns to a new normal in the post-pandemic world. The massive jump in e-commerce revenue could reverse somewhat in upcoming quarters as people regain mobility.\nFor the first time in over 15 years, Amazon lost market share to Shopify (SHOP) in 2020. This is a new challenge for Amazon, and the digitization efforts from retail giants like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) are likely to result in greater competition for Amazon.\nAlso, Microsoft's Azure (MSFT) is growing faster than AWS (albeit from a lower revenue base). Under Satya Nadella's leadership, Microsoft has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the cloud services industry. If AWS fails to retain its market leadership position, Amazon could fall short of our projections.\nAmazon's Digital Ads business is likely to be critical to future success for the company. With the threat of potential regulations hanging over the digital ad industry, the numbers projected for this line of business may not materialize.\nThe healthcare offering being built at Amazon could be the next big thing (business) to emerge from the company (like AWS, Prime Video, etc.). However, healthcare is a very complicated industry, and pure-plays like Teladoc have a much better chance of winning this market opportunity. Since we are well aware of Amazon's innovation capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily attribute this spending to be an unwarranted risk.\n\nConcluding Thoughts\nAmazon's higher-margin businesses are firing on all cylinders (accelerating growth), and while the stock has remained in a tight channel for almost a year now, the second half of 2021 could bring a fresh leg higher. As we saw earlier in this article, Amazon's operating margins are improving steadily due to the rapid growth of higher-margin businesses, i.e., AWS and Digital Ads.\nIn the last 12 months or so, Amazon's stock has been consolidating in a sideways channel. During this time, trading multiples have normalized, and Amazon is now trading at pre-pandemic levels. With robust revenue growth and margin expansion on the horizon, Amazon's stock is set to move higher.\nKey Takeaway: I rate Amazon a buy at $3,400.\nThanks for reading, remember to follow for more, and happy investing!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165102714,"gmtCreate":1624102512538,"gmtModify":1703828842221,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>??","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f8fcebe909e0a820572ace59bb8fa0","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/165102714","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":97,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166130375,"gmtCreate":1623995370897,"gmtModify":1703826059713,"author":{"id":"3583810124215635","authorId":"3583810124215635","name":"ASYJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82d020def1f3f44ba55167f068eea719","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583810124215635","authorIdStr":"3583810124215635"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/166130375","repostId":"2144742925","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144742925","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623976535,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144742925?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144742925","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The next decade looks bright for this supercomputing company.","content":"<p>In 1999, <b>NVIDIA</b> (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.</p>\n<p>NVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than <b>Apple</b> by 2031. Here are three reasons why.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaf8802c7ed003335f2860d2fb148e9\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. The data center</h2>\n<p>Currently, NVIDIA controls over 90%&nbsp;of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.</p>\n<p>To that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.</p>\n<p>Likewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).</p>\n<p>Finally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"</p>\n<h2><b>2. Autonomous vehicles</b></h2>\n<p>The NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.</p>\n<p>The brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from <b>Intel</b>'s&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MBLY\">Mobileye</a> -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d24136b7828e9c57db066423f43bfd7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\"><span>The NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.</span></p>\n<p>While NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like <b>NIO</b> &nbsp;and <b>Volvo</b> have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.</p>\n<p>Management believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.</p>\n<h2><b>3. NVIDIA Omniverse</b></h2>\n<p>This summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like <b>Autodesk</b> and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a></b>, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.</p>\n<p>First, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim&nbsp;is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.</p>\n<p>Second, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.</p>\n<p>Third, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.</p>\n<p>Here's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.</p>\n<h2>A final word</h2>\n<p>To summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?</p>\n<p>No one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Growth Stock That Could Be Bigger Than Apple\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 08:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/17/1-growth-stock-that-could-be-bigger-than-apple/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144742925","content_text":"In 1999, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) invented the graphics processing unit (GPU), a chip that revolutionized the gaming industry. Then in 2006, it introduced the CUDA programming model, turning GPUs into general-purpose processors. Together, these innovations transformed NVIDIA into a supercomputing company, powering its rise in the data center market.\nNVIDIA hasn't lost that innovative spark, and its pipeline is full of products that could be growth drivers over the coming decade. In fact, if the company executes on its massive market opportunity, I think NVIDIA could be bigger than Apple by 2031. Here are three reasons why.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. The data center\nCurrently, NVIDIA controls over 90% of the data center accelerator market. Over the past 12 months, its data center business generated $7.6 billion in revenue, up 117%. But management sees a much larger market opportunity -- which could generate $100 billion by 2024.\nTo that end, NVIDIA recently launched the DGX SuperPOD, a turnkey solution for enterprise artificial intelligence (AI). This cloud-native supercomputer simplifies AI, delivering in one platform all of the resources (i.e., hardware and software) clients need to build and deploy AI applications.\nLikewise, the Bluefield-3 data processing unit (DPU) is a new chip designed to accelerate and secure data center infrastructure. Specifically, DPUs off-load services like networking, storage, and security, boosting the performance of central processing units (CPU).\nFinally, NVIDIA recently announced the Grace CPU. Set to launch in 2023, this ARM-based processor will accelerate AI workloads by a factor of 10. Moreover, alongside the DPU and GPU, it will make NVIDIA a three-chip company. CEO Jensen Huang believes this vertical integration will be a significant advantage, allowing NVIDIA to \"re-architect the data center to advance AI.\"\n2. Autonomous vehicles\nThe NVIDIA DRIVE platform is designed to power autonomous vehicles (AVs). It combines in-car hardware with AI software, allowing vehicles to see, think, and move safely through their environments. In a recent report from advisory firm Navigant Research, NVIDIA DRIVE ranked as the No. 1 AV compute platform on the market.\nThe brains behind this system is NVIDIA Orin, a supercomputer that delivers 254 TOPS of performance, meaning it can perform 254 trillion operations per second. By comparison, the latest chip from Intel's Mobileye -- the No. 2 player in Navigant's report -- delivers just 24 TOPS.\nThe NVIDIA Orin. Image source: NVIDIA.\nWhile NVIDIA Orin won't ship until 2022, automakers like NIO  and Volvo have already selected NVIDIA DRIVE to power their autonomous fleets. As a result, NVIDIA is set to recognize $8 billion in automotive revenue over the next six years. But that small figure doesn't scratch the surface of its long-term potential.\nManagement believes the AV platform market will reach $25 billion by 2025. Given its competitive edge, NVIDIA could capture the lion's share of that figure. And if that happens, automotive sales could become a third major revenue stream for NVIDIA, supplementing its gaming and data center businesses.\n3. NVIDIA Omniverse\nThis summer, NVIDIA will launch Omniverse, a platform that allows clients to build 3D simulations in real time. It connects industry-leading design tools from partners like Autodesk and Adobe, enabling collaboration in a shared virtual space. This is a big deal for three reasons.\nFirst, Omniverse will accelerate AI. NVIDIA DRIVE Sim is an Omniverse-powered application that allows clients to generate synthetic driving data. That data can then be used in the real world to train AI models for autonomous vehicles.\nSecond, Omniverse is a subscription product. That's noteworthy because semiconductor sales tend to be cyclical, which can cause lumpy revenue growth. But subscription sales are typically recurring in nature, meaning Omniverse could help NVIDIA grow its top line more consistently.\nThird, NVIDIA believes this is a stepping-stone to the Metaverse. If you're unfamiliar with the term, the idea comes from science fiction. The Metaverse refers to a persistent virtual world, a digital reality where people can interact and share experiences.\nHere's the big picture: The virtual reality market will hit $69 billion by 2028, according to Grand View Research. And so far, NVIDIA Omniverse is gaining traction rapidly. During the three-month beta testing period, it was downloaded by over 17,000 users.\nA final word\nTo summarize, NVIDIA benefits from a solid competitive position and a massive market opportunity. Both advantages should be growth drivers over the coming decade. But will they be enough to eclipse Apple's current market cap of $2.1 trillion?\nNo one knows the future, but I think it's possible. Since fiscal 2016 (ended Jan. 31, 2016), NVIDIA's revenue has grown at 29% per year. If it can maintain an annual growth rate of just 17% over the next decade (assuming its price-to-sales ratio remains unchanged), NVIDIA's market cap would reach $2.2 trillion in 2031.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":72,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}