DLIM personal page - To The Moon

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2021-07-18

Alternative proteins is the way forward to a more sustainable eco enviroment and healthy living

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2021-07-22

Is he trying to manipulate the market?

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2021-07-28

Market oversold due to fear

Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound

2021-09-03

Always remember to do your portfolio management

What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?

2021-07-23

Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands

Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...

2021-09-06

Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio

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2021-07-18

Potfolio diversification and management is important

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2022-11-11

$XPENG-W(09868)$

2022-10-04

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$

2021-08-03

There's light at the end of tunnel. Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative and renewable energy.

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2022-10-03

$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$

2021-07-20

Xpeng is the future of EV

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2021-07-18

Consider do a Sell Put Option

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2022-09-30

$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$

2021-08-02

Nano-X company background and product data information raise red flags

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2021-07-20

Xpeng is the future of EV

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2024-07-24

$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ opportunity to DCA

2024-03-14

$SATS LTD.(S58.SI)$

2023-04-17

$SATS LTD.(S58.SI)$

2022-12-01

$TENCENT(00700)$

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$TENCENT(00700)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9965366219","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2048,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9960166125,"gmtCreate":1668100643167,"gmtModify":1676538013026,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09868\">$XPENG-W(09868)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09868\">$XPENG-W(09868)$&nbsp;</a><v-v 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Holdings(GRAB)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960186084","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9987661703,"gmtCreate":1667892091603,"gmtModify":1676537980640,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9987661703","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912427974,"gmtCreate":1664888157599,"gmtModify":1676537523601,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912427974","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2620,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912865739,"gmtCreate":1664801233721,"gmtModify":1676537510249,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912865739","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916806280,"gmtCreate":1664548672140,"gmtModify":1676537475723,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/F34.SI\">$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED(F34.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$WILMAR INTERNATIONAL 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LIMITED(F34.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918098595","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9918004659,"gmtCreate":1664278019971,"gmtModify":1676537424008,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"A good reminder on the fundamentals&nbsp;","listText":"A good reminder on the fundamentals&nbsp;","text":"A good reminder on the fundamentals","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9918004659","repostId":"1164141738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164141738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1664245209,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164141738?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-27 10:20","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Lessons From The Ongoing Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164141738","media":"The Smart Investor","summary":"This year demonstrated the cruel realities of investing in stocks.Year-to-date, the widely followed ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>This year demonstrated the cruel realities of investing in stocks.</p><p>Year-to-date, the widely followed US stock market benchmark, the S&amp;P 500, is down 14%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite, a tech-heavier benchmark for US stocks, has lost 22% of its value.</p><p>But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Many fast-growing companies have had it worse. For instance, the ARK Innovation ETF, an exchange-traded fund that invests in high-growth tech companies, is down by more than 50%.</p><p>Multiple stocks that were big winners during the COVID-induced lockdowns have also since returned all their gains; some are even trading well below their pre-COVID prices.</p><p>In my nine years as an investor, I’ve never seen such sharp and steep drawdowns across such a wide array of companies. But this likely won’t be the last time either.</p><p>With this in mind, I’ve penned down a list of investing thoughts to prepare myself for future downturns.</p><p><b>Don’t celebrate when prices go up</b></p><p>Stock prices gyrate wildly. During the booming market of 2020, there were many investors who celebrated when prices went up. Today, many of the stocks that rose in 2020 have returned all those gains – and then some.</p><p>2022 has so far reinforced the fact that stock prices really don’t matter in the short run. If prices run up without fundamentals, they will come back down eventually. Similarly, if stock prices fall below intrinsic values, don’t panic. Prices will eventually return to their underlying values.</p><p>As a long-term investor, I have learned to ignore near-term price movements and focus on business fundamentals and valuations.</p><p><b>Cash matters!</b></p><p>When stock prices were rising, companies could raise capital easily by issuing new shares at inflated prices. This increased their cash balances with minimal dilution to existing shareholders.</p><p>But now that stock prices have fallen, this source of capital has evaporated. Debt has also become more expensive due to rising interest rates.</p><p>It is in times of crisis that companies with strong balance sheets survive, while those with weak financials struggle. Companies that are burning cash and have insufficient cash may end up in a liquidity crisis or end up having to raise more capital at depressed valuations, which could severely impact existing shareholders. If these companies are unable to raise money, their debt holders may end up taking over them, leaving equity holders with scraps.</p><p><b>Invest in strong managers!</b></p><p>With asset prices low, this is a time for companies with the financial muscle to double down on investing for their future. This is a time when prudent managers shine through.</p><p>If a company has a great capital allocator at the helm, the company can come out of this bear market stronger than before.</p><p>Berkshire, for instance, has started to become more aggressive with its investments in terms of both buybacks and acquiring stakes in other businesses. I believe Warren Buffett’s recent decisions will pay off handsomely for Berkshire shareholders in the future.</p><p><b>Diversify</b></p><p>When stock prices were going up, there was a lot of discussion about concentrating one’s portfolio into just a few stocks.</p><p>But this is a risky strategy. Every company has its own set of risks that could result in long-term underperformance of its stock. Companies that are still growing fast and burning cash bear even more risk.</p><p>When investing for the long run, we are placing a bet on a company performing well for many years. This doesn’t always pan out. In fact, most companies don’t do well over time and the strong performances of market indexes are driven by just a small handful of companies. When investing, we never deal with absolutes. We are always playing the probability game.</p><p>As a long-term investor, survival and long-term steady returns are more important to me than simply maximising earnings. While having a diversified portfolio might reduce my expected returns, it increases my odds of long-term survival and stable returns.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1602567310727","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lessons From The Ongoing Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLessons From The Ongoing Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-27 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/lessons-from-the-ongoing-bear-market/><strong>The Smart Investor</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This year demonstrated the cruel realities of investing in stocks.Year-to-date, the widely followed US stock market benchmark, the S&P 500, is down 14%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite, a tech-heavier...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/lessons-from-the-ongoing-bear-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://thesmartinvestor.com.sg/lessons-from-the-ongoing-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164141738","content_text":"This year demonstrated the cruel realities of investing in stocks.Year-to-date, the widely followed US stock market benchmark, the S&P 500, is down 14%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite, a tech-heavier benchmark for US stocks, has lost 22% of its value.But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Many fast-growing companies have had it worse. For instance, the ARK Innovation ETF, an exchange-traded fund that invests in high-growth tech companies, is down by more than 50%.Multiple stocks that were big winners during the COVID-induced lockdowns have also since returned all their gains; some are even trading well below their pre-COVID prices.In my nine years as an investor, I’ve never seen such sharp and steep drawdowns across such a wide array of companies. But this likely won’t be the last time either.With this in mind, I’ve penned down a list of investing thoughts to prepare myself for future downturns.Don’t celebrate when prices go upStock prices gyrate wildly. During the booming market of 2020, there were many investors who celebrated when prices went up. Today, many of the stocks that rose in 2020 have returned all those gains – and then some.2022 has so far reinforced the fact that stock prices really don’t matter in the short run. If prices run up without fundamentals, they will come back down eventually. Similarly, if stock prices fall below intrinsic values, don’t panic. Prices will eventually return to their underlying values.As a long-term investor, I have learned to ignore near-term price movements and focus on business fundamentals and valuations.Cash matters!When stock prices were rising, companies could raise capital easily by issuing new shares at inflated prices. This increased their cash balances with minimal dilution to existing shareholders.But now that stock prices have fallen, this source of capital has evaporated. Debt has also become more expensive due to rising interest rates.It is in times of crisis that companies with strong balance sheets survive, while those with weak financials struggle. Companies that are burning cash and have insufficient cash may end up in a liquidity crisis or end up having to raise more capital at depressed valuations, which could severely impact existing shareholders. If these companies are unable to raise money, their debt holders may end up taking over them, leaving equity holders with scraps.Invest in strong managers!With asset prices low, this is a time for companies with the financial muscle to double down on investing for their future. This is a time when prudent managers shine through.If a company has a great capital allocator at the helm, the company can come out of this bear market stronger than before.Berkshire, for instance, has started to become more aggressive with its investments in terms of both buybacks and acquiring stakes in other businesses. I believe Warren Buffett’s recent decisions will pay off handsomely for Berkshire shareholders in the future.DiversifyWhen stock prices were going up, there was a lot of discussion about concentrating one’s portfolio into just a few stocks.But this is a risky strategy. Every company has its own set of risks that could result in long-term underperformance of its stock. Companies that are still growing fast and burning cash bear even more risk.When investing for the long run, we are placing a bet on a company performing well for many years. This doesn’t always pan out. In fact, most companies don’t do well over time and the strong performances of market indexes are driven by just a small handful of companies. When investing, we never deal with absolutes. We are always playing the probability game.As a long-term investor, survival and long-term steady returns are more important to me than simply maximising earnings. While having a diversified portfolio might reduce my expected returns, it increases my odds of long-term survival and stable returns.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911636587,"gmtCreate":1664190463149,"gmtModify":1676537406458,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/C38U.SI\">$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$CapLand IntCom T(C38U.SI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911636587","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9938586521,"gmtCreate":1662635080863,"gmtModify":1676537105867,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for these comparison&nbsp;analysis","listText":"Thanks for these comparison&nbsp;analysis","text":"Thanks for these comparison analysis","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9938586521","repostId":"2265005862","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2265005862","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1662606707,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2265005862?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-08 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft: Why I Traded It In For Apple And Google","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2265005862","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryI sold my Microsoft stock last year at around $320.Initially, I re-invested the money in bank","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>I sold my Microsoft stock last year at around $320.</li><li>Initially, I re-invested the money in bank stocks, but when the NASDAQ crashed, I started putting it into Apple and Google.</li><li>Microsoft still has better growth than Apple, but its whole story depends on one segment (the cloud).</li><li>Microsoft&#39;s non-cloud segments aren&#39;t growing very fast.</li><li>Because they have multiple growing segments instead of one, I consider Apple and Google better than Microsoft.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29fb06be709bd703cbad09d8693a3db6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"791\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><b>Microsoft</b> (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a stock that I held through the 2020/2021 NASDAQ rally and managed to sell before it came crashing down. I bought it after reading about the company&#39;s success with Azure-the second fastest growing of the big tech cloud services. <b>Alphabet&#39;s</b> (GOOG) Google Cloud was growing faster than Microsoft&#39;s Azure at the time (54% vs. 42%), but Azure was profitable while Google Cloud wasn&#39;t. So I figured that MSFT was the safer cloud bet.</p><p>When I bought MSFT, I was pretty much betting on Azure. When researching the stock, I discovered that its revenue growth in non-cloud businesses was slow, and that its valuation was expensive. Today, Microsoft only trades at 26.5 times earnings, but it was above 30 around the time I sold it. It has a sky-high 11.4 price-to-book ratio to this day.</p><p>Around the end of 2021 I knew that the Federal Reserve was planning on hiking interest rates, so I sold the two most expensive stocks in my portfolio: MSFT and <b>Adobe</b> (ADBE). The timing on those sales was pretty good because I booked gains on both (33% on MSFT and 20% on ADBE), while limiting my exposure to the tech bear market. Shortly after these sales, I wrote the article &#34;The Tech Stock Crash Will Likely Get Worse,&#34; which explained my reasons for being bearish on tech stocks. After the article published, the NASDAQ-100 fell a further 28%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a19f7b4044c0b5ef16645e84b3bfd206\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"923\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>NASDAQ trading after I predicted a tech crash (Google Finance)</span></p><p>Initially, I invested the proceeds I got from selling Microsoft into classic value plays: banks and energy stocks. I figured that rising interest rates would help banks earn more money while the economic recovery from COVID-19 would boost energy stocks. I was only half right about the first part (rising interest rates helped retail banks but not investment banks), I was 100% correct about the second part. At any rate, I booked some small profits on energy stocks and didn&#39;t buy anything new for a while after that.</p><p>Later, though, I started thinking about getting into tech stocks again. After watching the NASDAQ-100 tumble, I noticed that valuations were getting cheap. In particular, I noticed that Google had gone all the way down to 20 times earnings, despite still having double digit revenue growth, while Apple was gaining market share in China. Apple was on the pricey side at that point, but not as much as Microsoft (it traded at around 24 times earnings). So, I added some GOOGL and AAPL-the former stock has fallen about as much as Microsoft, the latter has given me a gain.</p><p>None of this is to say that I&#39;m actively bearish on Microsoft. I still hold the <b>Invesco QQQ Trust</b> (QQQ), which has a high level of MSFT exposure. However, factoring in price, competitive dynamics, and growth, I find Google and Apple to be better bets. In the ensuing paragraphs, I&#39;ll explain why I think that way.</p><p><b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p>One area where Google and Apple both have an edge over Microsoft is competitive dynamics. Google and Apple both have wide moats, Microsoft&#39;s position relative to competitors is less robust.</p><p>First, we can look at Google&#39;s moat. It&#39;s the #1 online ad platform in the world, with 26.4% of the market. In second place after Google is <b>Meta Platforms</b> (META), which has gained at Google&#39;s expense over the last decade, but is experiencing issues this year due to Apple&#39;s privacy changes and competition from TikTok. We can expect Google&#39;s moat to persist, because it benefitted from the very same Apple policy changes that hurt Meta, proving it has a resilient model competitors can&#39;t touch.</p><p>Next, we can look at Apple&#39;s moat. This stems from its brand (the most valuable in the world), which helps it retain customers, and its interconnected ecosystem, which encourages customers to buy multiple products. Apple has a huge fan community on YouTube, which helps it sell products without extra ad spend. As a result, Apple is #1 or #2 across multiple product categories, including:</p><ul><li><p>Smartphones- #2 after <b>Samsung</b> (OTCPK:SSNLF).</p></li><li><p>Smartphone operating systems- #1 by revenue, #2 byuser count.</p></li><li><p>Tablets- #1.</p></li><li><p>Smart watches- #1.</p></li><li><p>Computer operating systems - #2 after Windows.</p></li></ul><p>So we can see that Google and Apple both have high market share. Additionally, they have factors that can lead us to infer continued high market share-brand loyalty in Apple&#39;s case, a resilient ad platform in Google&#39;s case.</p><p>As for Microsoft?</p><p>It has some of the advantages that Apple and Google have, but not to the same extent. It controls Windows, the most popular computer operating system, but that product category has plateaued. It no longer has a meaningful presence in smartphones, as it failed in that market. In cloud services, it is #2 after Amazon. Finally, in gaming, it&#39;s second in hardware sales to <b>Sony&#39;s</b> (SONY) PlayStation 5, and owns the popular Minecraft IP. Microsoft has a pretty good competitive position, but it is not the #1 player in any growth sectors the way Apple and Google are.</p><p><b>Comparative Valuation</b></p><p>Having looked at Microsoft&#39;s competitive position, we can now turn to its valuation. MSFT remains a pretty expensive stock well into the 2022 bear market, and it may continue to be expensive for a while. To illustrate this fact, we can compare Microsoft&#39;s earnings multiples with those of Apple and Google.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67e868df6fdac980f7adad3c07e00ed8\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"328\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>As you can see, Apple is pretty similar to Microsoft, while Google is far cheaper. Valuation favors Google, it does not favor Apple, but recall the previous section on the competitive landscape: Apple&#39;s high brand loyalty makes it a very reliable company. It is not under any threat of margin compression due to new competitors entering the market, Microsoft arguably is.</p><p>As for Microsoft&#39;s valuation in a discounted cash flow model: it&#39;s hard to forecast the cash flows of a company with as many moving pieces as MSFT. However, if we start with the last 12 months&#39; $8.69 in free cash flow per share, and assume that it grows at the 10-year CAGR rate of 7.7%, we get to $12.59 in FCF per share after five years. Using a 3.25% discount rate (the current treasury yield), and assuming that growth falls to zero after five years, we get a present value of $379. That&#39;s a significant amount of upside, but remember that DCF models are very sensitive to inputs. Change the discount rate to 8% and suddenly the fair value falls to $150, which is severe downside. If you run this same model swapping out Microsoft&#39;s free cash flow for Google&#39;s, you get a fair value of $215, which implies 2X upside. Google also ends up worth less than today&#39;s price if you raise the discount rate to 8%, but the amount of downside (about 20%) is less.</p><p><b>Microsoft&#39;s Earnings</b></p><p>As I showed above, Microsoft has a steeper valuation than other tech companies you can compare it to. However, it has some advantages that other tech companies don&#39;t have. For example, it&#39;s still growing. In its most recent quarter, MSFT managed to achieve positive top and bottom line growth, posting the following results:</p><ul><li><p>Revenue: $51.9 billion, up 12%.</p></li><li><p>Operating income: $20.5 billion, up 14%.</p></li><li><p>Net income: $16.7 billion, up 2%.</p></li><li><p>Diluted EPS: $2.23, up 3%.</p></li></ul><p>Like many companies in the same period, Microsoft achieved solid revenue growth in Q2; however, unlike those other companies, it also had positive earnings growth. For a tech company to still be growing in 2022 after the Fed&#39;s many rate hikes and Apple&#39;s privacy changes is impressive. However, note that:</p><ul><li><p>Google&#39;s Q2 top line growth was higher than Microsoft&#39;s, at 13%.</p></li><li><p>Apple is doing a major product launch today that could boost its sales.</p></li></ul><p>Certainly, Microsoft is a good company. But when you look at Google&#39;s wider moat and Apple&#39;s potential catalyst, both of these stocks look like better opportunities.</p><p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p>As I&#39;ve shown in this article, Microsoft is a good stock, but perhaps not the best in the tech sector. I personally think Apple and Google are more appealing. However, there are risks and challenges facing any investor who chooses to overweight Google and Apple at the expense of Microsoft, including:</p><ul><li><p><b>Concentration risk.</b> All investors are exposed to two types of risk: market risk and specific risk. Market risk is the risk inherent in the whole market, specific risk is the risk in any one stock. The more you diversify, the less your specific risk. A broadly diversified portfolio with thousands of stocks reduces your specific risk to near zero. When you increase your specific risk by holding a lower number of stocks, your total portfolio is said to have &#39;concentration risk.&#39; If you&#39;re considering investing in just tech stocks, a full &#39;FAANG&#39; portfolio that includes MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL and the rest of the NASDAQ-100 will have less concentration risk than a pure Apple/Google portfolio. It would still be exposed to market risk, but its overall risk would be lower than holding just Apple and Google.</p></li><li><p><b>A slowdown in consumer spending.</b> Despite the current economic contraction, consumer spending is still rising modestly. In this environment, there are plenty of people buying Apple products, and patronizing companies that advertise on Google. If we enter a full fledged recession, though, that will likely change. As economic activity dips, people start to worry about being laid off-they often cut their spending as a result. Should something like that happen, an enterprise-focused company like MSFT might fare better than Google and Apple, which are heavily invested in the consumer.</p></li></ul><p>The risks above are worth keeping in mind. If they concern you, then Invesco&#39;s QQQ ETF might suit you better than a concentrated Apple/Google bet. Nevertheless, it&#39;s hard not to notice that Google and Apple enjoy competitive advantages over Microsoft. That reason alone is enough for me to weight the former two stocks higher than the latter.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft: Why I Traded It In For Apple And Google</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft: Why I Traded It In For Apple And Google\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-08 11:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539353-microsoft-stock-why-i-traded-for-apple-and-google><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryI sold my Microsoft stock last year at around $320.Initially, I re-invested the money in bank stocks, but when the NASDAQ crashed, I started putting it into Apple and Google.Microsoft still has...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539353-microsoft-stock-why-i-traded-for-apple-and-google\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539353-microsoft-stock-why-i-traded-for-apple-and-google","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2265005862","content_text":"SummaryI sold my Microsoft stock last year at around $320.Initially, I re-invested the money in bank stocks, but when the NASDAQ crashed, I started putting it into Apple and Google.Microsoft still has better growth than Apple, but its whole story depends on one segment (the cloud).Microsoft's non-cloud segments aren't growing very fast.Because they have multiple growing segments instead of one, I consider Apple and Google better than Microsoft.Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images EntertainmentMicrosoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a stock that I held through the 2020/2021 NASDAQ rally and managed to sell before it came crashing down. I bought it after reading about the company's success with Azure-the second fastest growing of the big tech cloud services. Alphabet's (GOOG) Google Cloud was growing faster than Microsoft's Azure at the time (54% vs. 42%), but Azure was profitable while Google Cloud wasn't. So I figured that MSFT was the safer cloud bet.When I bought MSFT, I was pretty much betting on Azure. When researching the stock, I discovered that its revenue growth in non-cloud businesses was slow, and that its valuation was expensive. Today, Microsoft only trades at 26.5 times earnings, but it was above 30 around the time I sold it. It has a sky-high 11.4 price-to-book ratio to this day.Around the end of 2021 I knew that the Federal Reserve was planning on hiking interest rates, so I sold the two most expensive stocks in my portfolio: MSFT and Adobe (ADBE). The timing on those sales was pretty good because I booked gains on both (33% on MSFT and 20% on ADBE), while limiting my exposure to the tech bear market. Shortly after these sales, I wrote the article \"The Tech Stock Crash Will Likely Get Worse,\" which explained my reasons for being bearish on tech stocks. After the article published, the NASDAQ-100 fell a further 28%.NASDAQ trading after I predicted a tech crash (Google Finance)Initially, I invested the proceeds I got from selling Microsoft into classic value plays: banks and energy stocks. I figured that rising interest rates would help banks earn more money while the economic recovery from COVID-19 would boost energy stocks. I was only half right about the first part (rising interest rates helped retail banks but not investment banks), I was 100% correct about the second part. At any rate, I booked some small profits on energy stocks and didn't buy anything new for a while after that.Later, though, I started thinking about getting into tech stocks again. After watching the NASDAQ-100 tumble, I noticed that valuations were getting cheap. In particular, I noticed that Google had gone all the way down to 20 times earnings, despite still having double digit revenue growth, while Apple was gaining market share in China. Apple was on the pricey side at that point, but not as much as Microsoft (it traded at around 24 times earnings). So, I added some GOOGL and AAPL-the former stock has fallen about as much as Microsoft, the latter has given me a gain.None of this is to say that I'm actively bearish on Microsoft. I still hold the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which has a high level of MSFT exposure. However, factoring in price, competitive dynamics, and growth, I find Google and Apple to be better bets. In the ensuing paragraphs, I'll explain why I think that way.Competitive LandscapeOne area where Google and Apple both have an edge over Microsoft is competitive dynamics. Google and Apple both have wide moats, Microsoft's position relative to competitors is less robust.First, we can look at Google's moat. It's the #1 online ad platform in the world, with 26.4% of the market. In second place after Google is Meta Platforms (META), which has gained at Google's expense over the last decade, but is experiencing issues this year due to Apple's privacy changes and competition from TikTok. We can expect Google's moat to persist, because it benefitted from the very same Apple policy changes that hurt Meta, proving it has a resilient model competitors can't touch.Next, we can look at Apple's moat. This stems from its brand (the most valuable in the world), which helps it retain customers, and its interconnected ecosystem, which encourages customers to buy multiple products. Apple has a huge fan community on YouTube, which helps it sell products without extra ad spend. As a result, Apple is #1 or #2 across multiple product categories, including:Smartphones- #2 after Samsung (OTCPK:SSNLF).Smartphone operating systems- #1 by revenue, #2 byuser count.Tablets- #1.Smart watches- #1.Computer operating systems - #2 after Windows.So we can see that Google and Apple both have high market share. Additionally, they have factors that can lead us to infer continued high market share-brand loyalty in Apple's case, a resilient ad platform in Google's case.As for Microsoft?It has some of the advantages that Apple and Google have, but not to the same extent. It controls Windows, the most popular computer operating system, but that product category has plateaued. It no longer has a meaningful presence in smartphones, as it failed in that market. In cloud services, it is #2 after Amazon. Finally, in gaming, it's second in hardware sales to Sony's (SONY) PlayStation 5, and owns the popular Minecraft IP. Microsoft has a pretty good competitive position, but it is not the #1 player in any growth sectors the way Apple and Google are.Comparative ValuationHaving looked at Microsoft's competitive position, we can now turn to its valuation. MSFT remains a pretty expensive stock well into the 2022 bear market, and it may continue to be expensive for a while. To illustrate this fact, we can compare Microsoft's earnings multiples with those of Apple and Google.As you can see, Apple is pretty similar to Microsoft, while Google is far cheaper. Valuation favors Google, it does not favor Apple, but recall the previous section on the competitive landscape: Apple's high brand loyalty makes it a very reliable company. It is not under any threat of margin compression due to new competitors entering the market, Microsoft arguably is.As for Microsoft's valuation in a discounted cash flow model: it's hard to forecast the cash flows of a company with as many moving pieces as MSFT. However, if we start with the last 12 months' $8.69 in free cash flow per share, and assume that it grows at the 10-year CAGR rate of 7.7%, we get to $12.59 in FCF per share after five years. Using a 3.25% discount rate (the current treasury yield), and assuming that growth falls to zero after five years, we get a present value of $379. That's a significant amount of upside, but remember that DCF models are very sensitive to inputs. Change the discount rate to 8% and suddenly the fair value falls to $150, which is severe downside. If you run this same model swapping out Microsoft's free cash flow for Google's, you get a fair value of $215, which implies 2X upside. Google also ends up worth less than today's price if you raise the discount rate to 8%, but the amount of downside (about 20%) is less.Microsoft's EarningsAs I showed above, Microsoft has a steeper valuation than other tech companies you can compare it to. However, it has some advantages that other tech companies don't have. For example, it's still growing. In its most recent quarter, MSFT managed to achieve positive top and bottom line growth, posting the following results:Revenue: $51.9 billion, up 12%.Operating income: $20.5 billion, up 14%.Net income: $16.7 billion, up 2%.Diluted EPS: $2.23, up 3%.Like many companies in the same period, Microsoft achieved solid revenue growth in Q2; however, unlike those other companies, it also had positive earnings growth. For a tech company to still be growing in 2022 after the Fed's many rate hikes and Apple's privacy changes is impressive. However, note that:Google's Q2 top line growth was higher than Microsoft's, at 13%.Apple is doing a major product launch today that could boost its sales.Certainly, Microsoft is a good company. But when you look at Google's wider moat and Apple's potential catalyst, both of these stocks look like better opportunities.Risks and ChallengesAs I've shown in this article, Microsoft is a good stock, but perhaps not the best in the tech sector. I personally think Apple and Google are more appealing. However, there are risks and challenges facing any investor who chooses to overweight Google and Apple at the expense of Microsoft, including:Concentration risk. All investors are exposed to two types of risk: market risk and specific risk. Market risk is the risk inherent in the whole market, specific risk is the risk in any one stock. The more you diversify, the less your specific risk. A broadly diversified portfolio with thousands of stocks reduces your specific risk to near zero. When you increase your specific risk by holding a lower number of stocks, your total portfolio is said to have 'concentration risk.' If you're considering investing in just tech stocks, a full 'FAANG' portfolio that includes MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL and the rest of the NASDAQ-100 will have less concentration risk than a pure Apple/Google portfolio. It would still be exposed to market risk, but its overall risk would be lower than holding just Apple and Google.A slowdown in consumer spending. Despite the current economic contraction, consumer spending is still rising modestly. In this environment, there are plenty of people buying Apple products, and patronizing companies that advertise on Google. If we enter a full fledged recession, though, that will likely change. As economic activity dips, people start to worry about being laid off-they often cut their spending as a result. Should something like that happen, an enterprise-focused company like MSFT might fare better than Google and Apple, which are heavily invested in the consumer.The risks above are worth keeping in mind. If they concern you, then Invesco's QQQ ETF might suit you better than a concentrated Apple/Google bet. Nevertheless, it's hard not to notice that Google and Apple enjoy competitive advantages over Microsoft. That reason alone is enough for me to weight the former two stocks higher than the latter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1,"GOOGL":0.9,"MSFT":1,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9007301117,"gmtCreate":1642761332847,"gmtModify":1676533743741,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9007301117","repostId":"1169434319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169434319","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642725929,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169434319?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-21 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here Are Some Stocks That Flourish When Rates Rise","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169434319","media":"the street","summary":"22V Research, an investment research firm, has compiled a list of stocks that do well in times of ri","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>22V Research, an investment research firm, has compiled a list of stocks that do well in times of rising interest rates.</p><p>The list includes pharmacy chain Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA, medical device maker Medtronic MDT, and drug companies Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX and Viatris VTRS, Barron’s reports.</p><p>22V created the list by combing through the S&amp;P 500 to find the stocks with the highest historical correlation to changes in both the real federal funds rate and the real 10-year Treasury yield — combining a short-term and a long-term rate.</p><p>Each of the four stocks has a lower forward price-earnings ratio than the S&amp;P 500, has outperformed the index so far this year and isn’t economically sensitive, according to Barron’s.</p><p>Walgreens has the highest correlation to the real fed funds and 10-year Treasury rates. It has climbed 2% year to date, compared to a 5.9% drop for the S&amp;P 500.</p><p>Medtronic has the sixth highest correlation, and it has gained 2.6% so far this year.</p><p>Vertex has the second highest correlation to interest rates, and it has gained 4.1% so far this year.</p><p>Viatris has the fourth-highest correlation to interest rates, and it has risen 8.2% so far this year.</p><p>As for Walgreen’s, Morningstar analyst Dylan Finley raised his fair value estimate to $48 from $44, after a strong earnings report earlier this month. But that still puts Walgreen’s in overvalued territory, as it closed at $53.18 Thursday, down 0.65%.</p><p>As for the earnings, “Walgreens&#39; reported stellar results in the first fiscal quarter of 2022 [ended Nov. 30] , led by strong performance across all segments,” Finley wrote.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here Are Some Stocks That Flourish When Rates Rise</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere Are Some Stocks That Flourish When Rates Rise\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-21 08:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/here-are-some-stocks-that-flourish-when-rates-rise><strong>the street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>22V Research, an investment research firm, has compiled a list of stocks that do well in times of rising interest rates.The list includes pharmacy chain Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA, medical device ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/here-are-some-stocks-that-flourish-when-rates-rise\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","MDT":"美敦力","VTRS":"Viatris Inc.","VRTX":"福泰制药"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/here-are-some-stocks-that-flourish-when-rates-rise","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169434319","content_text":"22V Research, an investment research firm, has compiled a list of stocks that do well in times of rising interest rates.The list includes pharmacy chain Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA, medical device maker Medtronic MDT, and drug companies Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX and Viatris VTRS, Barron’s reports.22V created the list by combing through the S&P 500 to find the stocks with the highest historical correlation to changes in both the real federal funds rate and the real 10-year Treasury yield — combining a short-term and a long-term rate.Each of the four stocks has a lower forward price-earnings ratio than the S&P 500, has outperformed the index so far this year and isn’t economically sensitive, according to Barron’s.Walgreens has the highest correlation to the real fed funds and 10-year Treasury rates. It has climbed 2% year to date, compared to a 5.9% drop for the S&P 500.Medtronic has the sixth highest correlation, and it has gained 2.6% so far this year.Vertex has the second highest correlation to interest rates, and it has gained 4.1% so far this year.Viatris has the fourth-highest correlation to interest rates, and it has risen 8.2% so far this year.As for Walgreen’s, Morningstar analyst Dylan Finley raised his fair value estimate to $48 from $44, after a strong earnings report earlier this month. But that still puts Walgreen’s in overvalued territory, as it closed at $53.18 Thursday, down 0.65%.As for the earnings, “Walgreens' reported stellar results in the first fiscal quarter of 2022 [ended Nov. 30] , led by strong performance across all segments,” Finley wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MDT":0.9,"WBA":0.9,"VTRS":0.9,"VRTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817689052,"gmtCreate":1630940620176,"gmtModify":1676530425504,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","listText":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","text":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817689052","repostId":"2165384258","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815140059,"gmtCreate":1630659590471,"gmtModify":1676530368609,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","listText":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","text":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815140059","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115112299?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>\n <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>\n <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>\n <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p><i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p>\n<p>The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p>\n<p>Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p>\n<p>Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p>\n<p>From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p>\n<p><i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p>\n<p>From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p>\n<p><i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p>\n<p>There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p>\n<p>Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p>\n<p>But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p>\n<p>The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p>\n<p><i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p>\n<p>Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p>\n<p>The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p>\n<p>Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p>\n<p>None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p>\n<p>I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p>\n<p>Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p>\n<p>If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p>\n<p><b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p>\n<p><i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p>\n<p><b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p>\n<p>Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p>\n<p><i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p>\n<p>This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p>\n<p>Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p>\n<p>No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p>\n<p>For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p>\n<p>Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p>\n<p>Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p>\n<p>Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p>\n<p>In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 11:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810856359,"gmtCreate":1629965727471,"gmtModify":1676530186246,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"In general, Huya financial and management&nbsp;performance are better than Douyu. This merger&nbsp;cancellation could be a blessing in disguise for Huya.","listText":"In general, Huya financial and management&nbsp;performance are better than Douyu. This merger&nbsp;cancellation could be a blessing in disguise for Huya.","text":"In general, Huya financial and management performance are better than Douyu. This merger cancellation could be a blessing in disguise for Huya.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/810856359","repostId":"2162061803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890066119,"gmtCreate":1628068052331,"gmtModify":1703500600066,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not only the Margin is low; the Revenue is decreasing over past few years","listText":"Not only the Margin is low; the Revenue is decreasing over past few years","text":"Not only the Margin is low; the Revenue is decreasing over past few years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890066119","repostId":"1177585640","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804751608,"gmtCreate":1627982652304,"gmtModify":1703499063892,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583811401087980","idStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"There's light at the end of tunnel. Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative&nbsp; and renewable energy.","listText":"There's light at the end of tunnel. Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative&nbsp; and renewable energy.","text":"There's light at the end of tunnel. Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative and renewable energy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/804751608","repostId":"2156149842","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":173965850,"gmtCreate":1626602209570,"gmtModify":1703762239003,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alternative proteins is the way forward to a more sustainable eco enviroment and healthy living","listText":"Alternative proteins is the way forward to a more sustainable eco enviroment and healthy living","text":"Alternative proteins is the way forward to a more sustainable eco enviroment and healthy living","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173965850","repostId":"1156209584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172185654,"gmtCreate":1626944473478,"gmtModify":1703481045851,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","listText":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","text":"Is he trying to manipulate the market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/172185654","repostId":"1153484478","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803714846,"gmtCreate":1627463660685,"gmtModify":1703490456092,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market oversold due to fear","listText":"Market oversold due to fear","text":"Market oversold due to fear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/803714846","repostId":"1154854343","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154854343","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627481786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1154854343?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154854343","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com, Pinduodu","content":"<p>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound&nbsp;in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi&nbsp;Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 3% and 13%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8198eadc3c17e2d3fa3226a5348e1bef\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-28 22:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound&nbsp;in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com,&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi&nbsp;Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;climbed between 3% and 13%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8198eadc3c17e2d3fa3226a5348e1bef\" tg-width=\"359\" tg-height=\"603\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","NTES":"网易","BIDU":"百度","PDD":"拼多多","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","JD":"京东","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154854343","content_text":"Hot Chinese concept stocks continue to rebound in Wednesday morning trading.Alibaba,JD.com, Pinduoduo,Baidu,DiDi Global,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto climbed between 3% and 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDU":0.9,"JD":0.9,"NTES":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"PDD":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815140059,"gmtCreate":1630659590471,"gmtModify":1676530368609,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","listText":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","text":"Always remember to do your portfolio management","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815140059","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1115112299?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>\n <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>\n <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>\n <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p><i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p>\n<p>The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p>\n<p>Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p>\n<p>Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p>\n<p>From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p>\n<p><i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p>\n<p>From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p>\n<p><i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p>\n<p>There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p>\n<p>Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p>\n<p>But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p>\n<p>The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p>\n<p><i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p>\n<p>Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p>\n<p>The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p>\n<p>Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p>\n<p>None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p>\n<p>I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p>\n<p>Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p>\n<p>If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p>\n<p><b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p>\n<p><i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p>\n<p><b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p>\n<p>Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p>\n<p><i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p>\n<p><i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p>\n<p>This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p>\n<p>Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p>\n<p>No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p>\n<p>For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p>\n<p>Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p>\n<p>Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p>\n<p>Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p>\n<p>In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 11:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175664354,"gmtCreate":1627029338178,"gmtModify":1703482775872,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","listText":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","text":"Maybe could consider Consumer Staples and Discretionary stocks which should have high secular domestic demands","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175664354","repostId":"1112567098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112567098","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627048219,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112567098?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-23 21:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112567098","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China consider","content":"<p>(July 23)&nbsp;Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading.&nbsp;Bloomberg&nbsp;report&nbsp;that,&nbsp;China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b057d861059cc83420bcf9edf2a465\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>China is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.</p>\n<p>In rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the people said.</p>\n<p>Local regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.</p>\n<p>The new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</p>\n<p>“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”</p>\n<p>New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.</p>\n<p>Beijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.</p>\n<p>Making the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”</p>\n<p>Education technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.</p>\n<p>Beijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.</p>\n<p>Last month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.</p>\n<p>Several high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.</p>\n<p>Shares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Gaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-23 21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 23)&nbsp;Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading.&nbsp;Bloomberg&nbsp;report&nbsp;that,&nbsp;China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b057d861059cc83420bcf9edf2a465\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>China is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.</p>\n<p>In rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the people said.</p>\n<p>Local regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.</p>\n<p>The new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</p>\n<p>“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”</p>\n<p>New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.</p>\n<p>Beijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.</p>\n<p>Making the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”</p>\n<p>Education technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.</p>\n<p>Beijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.</p>\n<p>Last month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.</p>\n<p>Several high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.</p>\n<p>Shares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Gaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOTU":"高途","EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112567098","content_text":"(July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.\n\nChina is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.\nIn rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, one of the people said.\nLocal regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.\nThe new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.\n“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”\nNew Oriental Education & Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.\nBeijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.\nMaking the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”\nEducation technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.\nBeijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.\nLast month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.\nSeveral high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.\nShares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.\nGaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TAL":0.9,"GOTU":0.9,"EDU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817689052,"gmtCreate":1630940620176,"gmtModify":1676530425504,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","listText":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","text":"Hopefully the management could explore new business opportunities thru aquisition or diversificatio","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817689052","repostId":"2165384258","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173986657,"gmtCreate":1626599864579,"gmtModify":1703762220890,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Potfolio diversification and management is important","listText":"Potfolio diversification and management is important","text":"Potfolio diversification and management is 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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$XPENG-W(09868)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9960166125","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912427974,"gmtCreate":1664888157599,"gmtModify":1676537523601,"author":{"id":"3583811401087980","authorId":"3583811401087980","name":"DLIM","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/140bf807c414ea069de5f87b2b1509cd","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583811401087980","authorIdStr":"3583811401087980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$Palantir Technologies 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Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative&nbsp; and renewable energy.","listText":"There's light at the end of tunnel. Global demand for fossil fuels will continue while transition to alternative&nbsp; and renewable energy.","text":"There's light at the end of tunnel. 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