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水蜜桃糖果
2021-07-27
Hi...morning
水蜜桃糖果
2021-07-15
OK
The bull market window is about to close.
水蜜桃糖果
2021-07-14
OK
Foreign media headlines: Completely out of control! With CPI data exceeding expectations, is US inflation unstoppable?
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10:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The bull market window is about to close.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151217519","media":"格隆汇","summary":"且行且珍惜","content":"<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>However, economic data is constantly betting on the other side.</p><p>On July 13 local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, respectively, and marking the highest level since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the pandemic last year, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible, with the core CPI rising by as much as 4.5% year-on-year after excluding volatile food and energy prices. However, thanks to previous preparations, the capital market's reaction has become increasingly calm. Last night, the three major US stock indices only fell slightly by about 0.3%, while US Treasury bonds and gold did not fluctuate much.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's arguments or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing stimulating the economy is becoming increasingly intense for the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>Although it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about scaling back bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been calling for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment,\" releasing signals to the market from time to time, whether hawkish or dovish. It can give investors ample time to take precautions and hedge. After several rounds, the number of people betting on policy decreased by more than half, and the Federal Reserve's turning point became much smoother.</p><p>Since the US CPI crossed the 2% safe boundary in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases (Taper) or even rate hike this year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation is tolerable until these two goals are achieved, it cannot be ruled out that persistently high inflation will change the FED's attitude.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this, and whether or not immediate action is needed no longer depends on the magnitude of inflationary pressure, but on how the Federal Reserve judges it.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report released on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, with the surge in labor demand outpacing the recovery in labor supply. Supply chain bottlenecks have eased somewhat, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressures remain considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statements made by Federal Reserve officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously pushed forward the market's expected inflection point. If the PPI data released next also far exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen market concerns and bring forward the expectation of exit actions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the widely accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal a tapering of bond purchases at its annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. Federal Reserve officials and institutions are expected to primarily hint and leak information, with predictions for when it will be implemented focusing on the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Prior to this, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is certain that the global liquidity turning point will eventually arrive.</p><p><b>At this critical juncture, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trends, the reasons make perfect sense.</b></p><p>Due to the significant recovery gaps among countries during last year's pandemic, China's rapid recovery, coupled with its large and well-developed manufacturing supply capacity, has benefited from a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth is precisely due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, with the control of the epidemic and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the US and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months shows that while the global manufacturing PMI is strengthening, China's new export orders have declined significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this backdrop, it has become a consensus that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the return of monetary easing is precisely to offset this impact in advance.</p><p>However, over the past 10 years, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has been 133 basis points. Last September, the interest rate differential between China and the United States was 235 basis points, while now it is only 155 basis points. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States begins to tighten monetary policy, the room for flexibility will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, the mismatch between Chinese and American monetary policies has raised new concerns in the market: how much room for maneuver and adjustment do we still have?</p><p>However, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, expressed his views yesterday.<b>He believes that discussions about the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy will have little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>Let's look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a positive direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, making it a veritable world factory. The United States was also able to continue to play in finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>The United States experienced a severe financial crisis that quickly swept the globe, and China also suffered greatly, rushing to launch a \"four trillion yuan\" market rescue plan. This has led to a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what went wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China joined the WTO, it relocated its own manufacturing industry more recklessly. The emptiness of the real economy led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially the financial sector, which was the root of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of returning manufacturing.</p><p>China, on the other hand, takes a more nuanced stance. The United States relies excessively on the dollar's status and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the dollar's cyclical fluctuations will be quite drastic. However, the United States can use the global market to hedge against dollar fluctuations, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply tied to the United States. Their monetary policies can only passively follow suit. They do well when the dollar expands, but when the dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed years of WTO benefits and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy.\" When the economic crisis arrived, demand from Europe and the United States declined rapidly, foreign trade plummeted, and a large number of export manufacturing industries collapsed, leading to a rapid increase in the unemployed population. This is precisely the manifestation of this.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is of paramount importance.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China also began a series of adjustments, the most important of which was to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it was to find a way to break free from the precedent of being overly tied to the United States.</p><p>As for specific approaches, the Belt and Road Initiative is one example, infrastructure + real estate is another, shifting from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is another example, and there are also...<b>Adjustments to monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to experiment with directly using the RMB for settlement in foreign trade with some neighboring countries, which led to a rapid increase in the international use of the RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan, but in 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\" changed the RMB from being pegged to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, changes in the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and forming a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchors\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a considerable price. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform,\" the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly. Coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange controls, countless companies took advantage of these loopholes to continuously arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, resulting in a loss of $900 billion in foreign exchange reserves for China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, however, the results have been significant. At the very least, China has gradually demonstrated its autonomy and independence in choosing its monetary policy. This may be the source of Director Sun's confidence.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What will the mismatch between the Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, almost all emerging economies were wiped out, and some countries suffered particularly severely. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey all depreciated to record lows, and Brazil's GDP experienced the largest decline in history.</p><p><b>Because the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the initiative and took proactive measures, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was low among emerging markets, thus avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In terms of monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the US, and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the People's Bank of China moved away from the pace of the US and Europe, taking the lead in both monetary easing and monetary policy.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held nine joint rate hike, with Federal Funds rate increasing the rate to 2.25%-2.50%. Meanwhile, China was cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the benchmark one-year loan rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark one-year deposit rate was also lowered multiple times by 0.25 percentage points, to 1.75%. The benchmark interest rates for other loans and deposits, as well as the interest rates for personal housing provident fund deposits and loans, will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve again introduced massive monetary easing, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberate pursuits, but rather decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it replaced the old path of relying solely on monetary stimulus with export dividends through rapid epidemic prevention and control. This reserve requirement ratio cut is quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely disregarding the Federal Reserve. After all, the engine of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely we who want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as the pressure of RMB depreciation and capital outflows if the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expect. Externally, we face the risk of reduced exports, and on the monetary side, we need to worry about the pressure brought about by the Federal Reserve's monetary turning point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited. Domestically, investment momentum is insufficient, and the domestic economic cycle driven by high hopes for consumption has not yet achieved significant results. Once liquidity tightens, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the same situation of tight demand and liquidity as last year.</p><p>Under a combination of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next most likely monetary policy action is not to ease liquidity or join the ranks of significant tightening, but rather to control overall quantity, adjust structures, provide targeted guidance, and strictly control the idle circulation of regulatory funds, truly guiding liquidity to where it should go, such as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and people's livelihoods.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovative Technology</a>In areas such as green economy.</p><p>The government now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and the consumer economy, and the momentum is very strong. Therefore, we can also imagine that any obstacles that hinder the achievement of this goal will continue to be suppressed and eliminated, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, healthcare, and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, the situation for the capital market may not be very optimistic.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>Stock prices depend on the industry in the long run, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and the A-share market has also shifted from broad-based gains to divergence and consolidation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the chart below—divergence—is happening. If monetary policy really tightens in the future, then the fourth quadrant—the widespread devastation of the capital market—will most likely repeat itself, but the question is to what extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When making investments, we should be willing to decide whether to stay or leave based on the worst-case scenario, and listen to thunderclaps in silence.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much longer.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market window is about to close.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market window is about to close.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>However, economic data is constantly betting on the other side.</p><p>On July 13 local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, respectively, and marking the highest level since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the pandemic last year, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible, with the core CPI rising by as much as 4.5% year-on-year after excluding volatile food and energy prices. However, thanks to previous preparations, the capital market's reaction has become increasingly calm. Last night, the three major US stock indices only fell slightly by about 0.3%, while US Treasury bonds and gold did not fluctuate much.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's arguments or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing stimulating the economy is becoming increasingly intense for the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>Although it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about scaling back bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been calling for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment,\" releasing signals to the market from time to time, whether hawkish or dovish. It can give investors ample time to take precautions and hedge. After several rounds, the number of people betting on policy decreased by more than half, and the Federal Reserve's turning point became much smoother.</p><p>Since the US CPI crossed the 2% safe boundary in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases (Taper) or even rate hike this year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation is tolerable until these two goals are achieved, it cannot be ruled out that persistently high inflation will change the FED's attitude.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this, and whether or not immediate action is needed no longer depends on the magnitude of inflationary pressure, but on how the Federal Reserve judges it.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report released on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, with the surge in labor demand outpacing the recovery in labor supply. Supply chain bottlenecks have eased somewhat, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressures remain considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statements made by Federal Reserve officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously pushed forward the market's expected inflection point. If the PPI data released next also far exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen market concerns and bring forward the expectation of exit actions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the widely accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal a tapering of bond purchases at its annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. Federal Reserve officials and institutions are expected to primarily hint and leak information, with predictions for when it will be implemented focusing on the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Prior to this, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is certain that the global liquidity turning point will eventually arrive.</p><p><b>At this critical juncture, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trends, the reasons make perfect sense.</b></p><p>Due to the significant recovery gaps among countries during last year's pandemic, China's rapid recovery, coupled with its large and well-developed manufacturing supply capacity, has benefited from a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth is precisely due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, with the control of the epidemic and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the US and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months shows that while the global manufacturing PMI is strengthening, China's new export orders have declined significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this backdrop, it has become a consensus that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the return of monetary easing is precisely to offset this impact in advance.</p><p>However, over the past 10 years, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has been 133 basis points. Last September, the interest rate differential between China and the United States was 235 basis points, while now it is only 155 basis points. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States begins to tighten monetary policy, the room for flexibility will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, the mismatch between Chinese and American monetary policies has raised new concerns in the market: how much room for maneuver and adjustment do we still have?</p><p>However, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, expressed his views yesterday.<b>He believes that discussions about the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy will have little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>Let's look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a positive direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, making it a veritable world factory. The United States was also able to continue to play in finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>The United States experienced a severe financial crisis that quickly swept the globe, and China also suffered greatly, rushing to launch a \"four trillion yuan\" market rescue plan. This has led to a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what went wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China joined the WTO, it relocated its own manufacturing industry more recklessly. The emptiness of the real economy led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially the financial sector, which was the root of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of returning manufacturing.</p><p>China, on the other hand, takes a more nuanced stance. The United States relies excessively on the dollar's status and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the dollar's cyclical fluctuations will be quite drastic. However, the United States can use the global market to hedge against dollar fluctuations, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply tied to the United States. Their monetary policies can only passively follow suit. They do well when the dollar expands, but when the dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed years of WTO benefits and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy.\" When the economic crisis arrived, demand from Europe and the United States declined rapidly, foreign trade plummeted, and a large number of export manufacturing industries collapsed, leading to a rapid increase in the unemployed population. This is precisely the manifestation of this.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is of paramount importance.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China also began a series of adjustments, the most important of which was to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it was to find a way to break free from the precedent of being overly tied to the United States.</p><p>As for specific approaches, the Belt and Road Initiative is one example, infrastructure + real estate is another, shifting from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is another example, and there are also...<b>Adjustments to monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to experiment with directly using the RMB for settlement in foreign trade with some neighboring countries, which led to a rapid increase in the international use of the RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan, but in 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\" changed the RMB from being pegged to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, changes in the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and forming a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchors\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a considerable price. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform,\" the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly. Coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange controls, countless companies took advantage of these loopholes to continuously arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, resulting in a loss of $900 billion in foreign exchange reserves for China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, however, the results have been significant. At the very least, China has gradually demonstrated its autonomy and independence in choosing its monetary policy. This may be the source of Director Sun's confidence.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What will the mismatch between the Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, almost all emerging economies were wiped out, and some countries suffered particularly severely. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey all depreciated to record lows, and Brazil's GDP experienced the largest decline in history.</p><p><b>Because the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the initiative and took proactive measures, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was low among emerging markets, thus avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In terms of monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the US, and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the People's Bank of China moved away from the pace of the US and Europe, taking the lead in both monetary easing and monetary policy.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held nine joint rate hike, with Federal Funds rate increasing the rate to 2.25%-2.50%. Meanwhile, China was cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the benchmark one-year loan rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark one-year deposit rate was also lowered multiple times by 0.25 percentage points, to 1.75%. The benchmark interest rates for other loans and deposits, as well as the interest rates for personal housing provident fund deposits and loans, will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve again introduced massive monetary easing, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberate pursuits, but rather decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it replaced the old path of relying solely on monetary stimulus with export dividends through rapid epidemic prevention and control. This reserve requirement ratio cut is quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely disregarding the Federal Reserve. After all, the engine of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely we who want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as the pressure of RMB depreciation and capital outflows if the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expect. Externally, we face the risk of reduced exports, and on the monetary side, we need to worry about the pressure brought about by the Federal Reserve's monetary turning point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited. Domestically, investment momentum is insufficient, and the domestic economic cycle driven by high hopes for consumption has not yet achieved significant results. Once liquidity tightens, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the same situation of tight demand and liquidity as last year.</p><p>Under a combination of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next most likely monetary policy action is not to ease liquidity or join the ranks of significant tightening, but rather to control overall quantity, adjust structures, provide targeted guidance, and strictly control the idle circulation of regulatory funds, truly guiding liquidity to where it should go, such as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and people's livelihoods.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovative Technology</a>In areas such as green economy.</p><p>The government now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and the consumer economy, and the momentum is very strong. Therefore, we can also imagine that any obstacles that hinder the achievement of this goal will continue to be suppressed and eliminated, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, healthcare, and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, the situation for the capital market may not be very optimistic.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>Stock prices depend on the industry in the long run, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and the A-share market has also shifted from broad-based gains to divergence and consolidation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the chart below—divergence—is happening. If monetary policy really tightens in the future, then the fourth quadrant—the widespread devastation of the capital market—will most likely repeat itself, but the question is to what extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When making investments, we should be willing to decide whether to stay or leave based on the worst-case scenario, and listen to thunderclaps in silence.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much longer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2151217519","content_text":"美联储主席不止一次地告诉世界，通胀是暂时的。\n不过，经济数据正在不断押注另一边。\n当地时间7月13日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，6月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长5.4%，环比上涨0.9%，均大幅超出市场预期的5%、0.5%，同时创下1991年11月以来最高记录。\n\n即便考虑到去年疫情导致的低基数，通胀数据的恶化依然肉眼可见，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比涨幅高达4.5%。但是，通过前几次的铺垫，资本市场的反应越来越平淡，昨晚美股三大指数只微跌0.3%左右，美债、黄金异动都不大。\n无论市场是否继续相信鲍威尔的论调，对美联储来说，通胀压力和货币宽松刺激经济的矛盾日益激烈。\n正如联储官员戴利所说，虽然现在谈论加息还为时过早，但开始谈论缩减购债是合适的。\n\n\n1\n喊了几个月的Taper，啥时候来？\n\n\n美联储很擅长做“预期调节”这件事，不定时地向市场释放信号，鹰派的、鸽派的，放风可以放足一年，给投资者充足的时间做预防和对冲。反复几次下来，和政策对赌的人少了一大半，美联储的拐弯就平滑了许多。\n从3月份美国CPI跨过2%的安全边界之后，押注美联储在年内将缩减购债规模（Taper）甚至加息的投资者越来越多。虽然鲍威尔的货币政策框架锚定的是经济和就业，这两个目标未完成前，短期通胀是可以被容忍的，但不排除持续过高的通胀改变FED的态度。\n不过，短期内马上改变美联储货币政策显然不太现实，毕竟事态已经这样了，需不需要立即采取行动就不再取决于通胀压力有多大，而是美联储如何判断。\n根据7月9日美联储发布的货币政策报告，美国经济正在强劲复苏，但是劳动力市场存在结构性问题，劳动力需求的激增超过了劳动力供应的复苏；供应链瓶颈有所缓解，但历史高位的订单积压和历史低位的客户库存表明供应链压力依然不小。\n无论美联储官员的表态如何，市场的预期不外乎以下4种。连续4个月的通胀数据，不断将市场的预期拐点向前移。如果接下来公布的PPI数据同样大超预期，生产端的压力继续向消费端传导，将会进一步加深市场的担忧，退出动作的预期也会继续提前。\n\n当前，比较受认可的观点是，美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔年度专题研讨会上抛出缩减购债信号。预期会先以暗示、放风为主，具体何时落地，联储官员和机构的预测集中在今年年底和明年年初。在此之前，7月底的FOMC会议或许会透露出一些关键信息。\n短期上或许还存在诸多不确定性，但远期上，所有人都确信，全球流动性拐点终将到来。\n在这个节骨眼上，国内央行却意外地再度降准，释放出约1万亿的流动性，但再看看目前的经济数据趋势，理由是很能说得通的。\n由于去年的疫情中各国存在较大的恢复差，中国的快速恢复，且庞大而完善的制造业供应能力，吃到一波外贸红利，经济快速增长正是得益于大量的海外出口订单。但如今，随着美欧发达国家疫情控制、疫苗接种率的提升，经济社会恢复正常，订单开始回流，对中国的外贸需求将出现明显的下降，近几个月的经济数据显示，全球制造业PMI景气走强的同时，中国新出口订单明显回落。\n\n在这个背景下，中国经济下行压力加大已成各方共识，货币重新偏向宽松，正是为了提前对冲这种影响。\n但过去10年，中美平均利差为133BP，去年9月中美利差为235BP，而现在只有155个BP，从这个角度看，宽松的空间已经大大缩减，一旦美国开始收水，货币政策的弹性空间就会变得狭窄很多。\n\n如今，中美货币政策的错配，又引发市场新的担忧，我们还有多大腾挪调配的空间？\n不过，昨日央行货币政策司司长孙国峰发表观点，他认为关于美联储货币政策转向的讨论对中国货币政策、金融市场的影响较小。\n这个底气从何而来？\n2\n十年货币独立性追求，成真了吗？\n我们不妨回顾一下过去20年发生的事情。\n2001加入世贸之后，中国和美国经济相互依存度加深，一切貌似都朝着美好的方向发展，中国GDP增速连年超过10%，成了名副其实的世界工厂，美国也得以继续玩金融，玩地产。\n但是，2008年，一切戛然而止。\n美国爆发了严重的金融危机，并且迅速席卷全球，中国也深受其害，急冲冲启动“四万亿”的救市计划。由此引发的，是中美双方合作关系的“裂痕”，其实双方都在反思，过去8年到底出了什么问题。\n美国认为中国加入世贸后，自己因为更肆无忌惮地移走自家的制造业，实体经济的空虚，导致虚拟经济，尤其是金融的过度膨胀，是危机的根源，所以奥巴马才喊出制造业回归的旗号。\n而中国，态度则更加微妙。美国过分依赖美元地位、债务扩张等方式发展经济，决定了美元的周期波动会比较剧烈，但美国能够利用全球去对冲美元的波动，其他国家则没有这个实力，尤其是深度跟美国绑定的国家，货币政策只能被动跟随，在美元扩张时日子过得不错，但是美元收缩时，常常伴随着剧烈的经济下行。金融危机前，中国享受了多年的世贸红利，并演变为引以为傲的“出口导向型经济”，经济危机来临，欧美需求快速下滑，外贸重挫，伴随而来的是大量出口制造业倒闭，失业人口迅速膨胀，正是这种体现。\n中国这样体型庞大、人口众多的国家，稳定比什么都重要。\n所以，在稳住经济形势之后，中国也开始了一系列的调整，其中最重要的一条，就是走自己的路，说得再直白一点，就是想办法从过度绑定美国的前车之鉴中抽身。\n至于具体的做法，一带一路算一个，基建+地产算一个，由出口依赖转向刺激内需也算一个，还有货币政策的调整。\n2009年，中国开始尝试跟周边一些国家做对外贸易上，直接使用人民结算，推动人民币的国际使用量迅速增加。2009年，人民币的外贸结算量只有几十亿元，2015年，首次突破10万亿元。\n2015年，“811汇改”，人民币从单一盯住美元，改为选择若干种主要货币，赋予相应的权重，组成一个货币篮子，同时，以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化，维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基础稳定，形成有管理的浮动汇率制。\n简而言之，就是从“单锚”转向了“多锚”。\n在这个过程中，中国付出了不少代价，如“811汇改”后，人民币汇率快速贬值，加上外汇管制上的漏洞，无数企业利用这种漏洞，不断地套汇输出海外，中国损失了9000亿美元外汇储备。\n\n但总体上，收效还是很大的，起码，中国在货币政策的选择上，逐渐体现出了自主的独立性。这可能就是孙司长所言的底气。\n3\n中美货币的错配，带来什么？\n2015年下半年，美联储进入加息周期，新兴经济体几乎全军覆没，部分国家更是格外惨烈，巴西、南非和土耳其货币均贬至纪录低位，巴西 GDP 创史上最大降幅。\n由于“811”汇改抢占先机、主动防御，人民币兑美元汇率的贬值幅度在新兴市场中居于低位，避免了系统性风险的爆发。在货币政策上，中国也表现出了比以往更多的独立性。2008年之前，中美欧货币政策趋于同步；金融危机爆发后，中国央行的节奏脱离美欧的步伐，收放水都领先一步。\n如美联储从2015年12月到2018年12月，美联储共同加息9次，联邦基金利率加至2.25%-2.50%。而此时的中国，却在降息，2015年3月1日、5月11日、6月28日、8月26日，一年期贷款基准利率下调均下调0.25个百分点，由5.6%将至4.6%，一年期存款基准利率也多次下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%；其他各档次贷款及存款基准利率、个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。\n2020年的新冠疫情，美联储再次大放水，但中美两国的经济周期和货币政策再次出现错配。\n\n两次的配错，并非刻意追求，更多的是中国出于自身的实际情况做出的决策，如2015年需要解决地方债务到期问题、房地产高库存问题，2020年则是通过快速的疫情防控，用出口红利代替了纯粹依靠货币刺激的老路。这次降准，也颇有2015年时的意思。\n不过，这种独立性并不等于完全不顾美联储，毕竟全球经济的火车头还是美国，恰恰是我们想在美联储和自身国情中取平衡。当然，中国接下来需要面对的是，如果美联储因为通胀压力大幅提前收紧流动性的节奏，人民币贬值压力和资本外流等问题上，该如何应对。\n下半年或许比我们预期要艰难许多，对外，面临出口缩减风险，货币方面又需要担心美联储货币拐点带来的压力，流动性相对宽松的窗口有限；对内，投资动力不足，寄与厚望的消费拉动的内循环经济成效还不够显著，一旦资金面收紧，很多中小微企业又会面临去年那样需求与资金面紧缺的局面。\n内外压力联合作用下，接下来央行对货币政策比较可能采取的操作可能不是放松流动性，或加入明显收紧行列，而更可能是总量控制，结构调整，定向引导，严控监管资金空转，真正把流动性引导至真正应该去的地方，比如中小微，民生经济，创新科技、绿色经济等方面。\n国家现在对提振国内企业活力、民众消费经济的目标很明确，动能也很强烈。由此，我们也可以想象得到，但凡对这个目标实现构成影响的阻碍，都会继续被压制和清理，比如炒房、反垄断、教育、医疗等等。\n但无论哪一种情况，对于资本市场面来说，可能都不会是一个很乐观的局面。\n4\n结语\n股价这个东西，长期看行业，中期看基本面，短期看流动性。\n去年3月到现在，我们经历了一波典型的从“经济向好，货币宽松”到“经济向好，货币收紧”的过程，大A也从普涨转变为分化抱团。\n下图第三象限所发生的事情--分化正在发生，如果接下来的货币真的向紧，那么第四象限--哀鸿遍野的资本市场也大概率会重演，只是程度有多大的问题。\n\n做投资，我们要不吝以最差的预期决定去留，于无声处听惊雷。\n至于那些上半年没能赚到钱的投资者，时间和机会可能并不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145465003,"gmtCreate":1626238603002,"gmtModify":1703756133417,"author":{"id":"3583894443449197","authorId":"3583894443449197","name":"水蜜桃糖果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0428d0127c48bddfbf554d759c7bc1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583894443449197","authorIdStr":"3583894443449197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145465003","repostId":"2151607825","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151607825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626212171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151607825?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 05:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: Completely out of control! With CPI data exceeding expectations, is US inflation unstoppable?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151607825","media":"新浪财经","summary":"剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分，所谓的核心CPI也环比上涨0.9%，同比上升4.5%，为1991年9月以来最大涨幅。劳工部表示，二手车占到了6月份CPI升幅的三分之一。CPI大幅上涨在很大程度上也是由于与经济更广泛重新开放相关的类别出现价格回升，包括酒店住宿、汽车租赁、服装和机票等。美国劳工部周二发布数据显示 ，6月份CPI环比上升0.9%，创下自2008年以来最大增幅，同比涨幅5.4%。增幅最大的也是疫苗接种率最低的地区。","content":"<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. US consumer prices surged again in June, exceeding economists' expectations.</b><b>2. San Francisco Fed President: Rising inflation is only a temporary phenomenon; bond-buying reduction may begin by the end of the year.</b><b>3. The U.S. budget deficit surged to $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of this fiscal year.</b><b>4. Author of *Black Swan*: Bitcoin value is \"completely zero\" and insufficient to serve as a currency and hedging tool.</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Even if the Delta strain triggers a pandemic, its impact on the US economy will be relatively \"mild.\"</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plan joint<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Launching installment payment services to benchmark against<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>\"Buy now, pay later\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c32e4994b5a618b7f8962f4d749841\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. consumer prices surged again in June, exceeding economists' expectations.</b></p><p>U.S. consumer price increases in June exceeded the expectations of all economists surveyed, indicating that rising commodity and labor costs brought about by the reopening of the economy continue to exacerbate inflationary pressures.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Tuesday, the consumer price index jumped 0.9% month-over-month in June. Year-on-year growth surged by 5.4%, marking the largest increase since August 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.9% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year, the largest increase since September 1991.</p><p>The Labor Department said used cars accounted for one-third of the CPI increase in June. The sharp rise in CPI was also largely due to price recoveries in categories related to the broader reopening of the economy, including hotel accommodations, car rentals, clothing, and airfares.</p><p>The Federal Reserve believes that these price increases will normalize over time, so inflationary pressures are only temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be1a9222227308463aa860babcc8368\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>San Francisco Fed President: Rising inflation is only a temporary phenomenon; bond-buying tapering may begin by the end of the year.</b></p><p>Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, believes that the largest increase in CPI since 2008 is likely just a temporary effect of the rapid economic recovery from the pandemic crisis.</p><p>Daly stated that she is \"optimistic\" about the economy's performance heading into the fall and believes it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to begin discussing tapering its monthly asset purchases now, with the tapering likely to begin at the end of this year or early next year.</p><p>In an interview on Tuesday, Daly said, \"It's appropriate to start talking about tapering asset purchases and reducing some of the easing measures we're providing to the economy. We'll still be in a very loose position, with low Federal Funds rate, but as the economy begins to stabilize, we don't need to keep all the tools.\"</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday showed that the CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month in June, the largest increase since 2008, and 5.4% year-on-year. Daly, who has voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, believes that used cars contributed more than a third of the CPI increase, indicating that the rise in inflation may be temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30972f443d50a6365b8e37354d896dce\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The U.S. budget deficit surged to $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of this fiscal year.</b></p><p>The U.S. budget deficit exceeded $2 trillion in the first three quarters of this fiscal year, and the federal government's full-year budget deficit may be close to last year's record level, demonstrating the continued impact of the Covid-19 crisis.</p><p>Data released by the Treasury Department on Tuesday showed a budget deficit of $174 billion in June. In comparison, the deficit in June 2020 was $864 billion, as the government implemented massive fiscal stimulus to curb the economic damage caused by the pandemic.</p><p>Although the monthly deficit is shrinking, Republicans in Washington are citing rising federal debt as a reason to oppose President Joe Biden's plans for the largest increase in social spending and addressing inequality in decades.</p><p>According to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the budget deficit will approach $3 trillion in fiscal year 2021 even without further spending. The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 was $3.13 trillion, the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio since World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5b4522b937bc8baee3a12d3aa8053b4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Author of \"Black Swan\": Bitcoin value is \"completely zero\" and insufficient to serve as a currency and hedging tool.</b></p><p>In a recent paper, Nassim Taleb, author of the best-selling book Black Swan, said Bitcoin failed to live up to its concept as an anarchic currency, a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven investment.</p><p>“There are few assets in financial history that are more vulnerable than Bitcoin,” Taleb said.</p><p>Taleb had expressed a more positive view of Bitcoin, but in his paper entitled “Bitcoin, Currency and Vulnerability,” published in late June, he called Bitcoin’s value “completely zero,” partly because it requires a sustained and substantial amount of interest to maintain.</p><p>In contrast, \"gold and other precious metals are essentially maintenance-free, do not degrade, and do not require maintenance to update their physical properties over time,\" he said.</p><p>Founded in 2008, Bitcoin has always been known for its volatility. Taleb pointed out that in March 2020, Bitcoin fell more than the stock market and recovered after “a large injection of liquidity,” which “is enough to prove that it is far from sufficient as a tail hedge against systemic risk.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e0da554e2da8d5eb64fcf3712c1bfd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Even if the Delta strain triggers a pandemic, its impact on the US economy will be relatively \"mild.\"</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists believe that thanks to widespread vaccination, a potential rebound in the pandemic triggered by the delta variant will not weaken U.S. consumer spending.</p><p>In a report to clients, Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Nicolae wrote that in some areas where COVID-19 cases have increased in recent weeks, there are few signs that restaurant reservations and broader consumer spending are slowing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Data from the UK, on the other side, also shows that the recent surge in cases in the country has had little impact on economic activity.</p><p>“If new cases and deaths reach higher levels, economic activity could decline sharply,” Nicolae said. \"But so far, the sensitivity of consumer activity in the United States and the United Kingdom has been low, which suggests that the economic impact of the delta strain outbreak will be mild.\"</p><p>COVID-19 cases have increased in many parts of the United States, mainly due to the more contagious delta strain. The regions with the largest increases are also those with the lowest vaccination rates.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that due to high vaccination rates, especially among the elderly, the risk of economic shutdowns and the reimposition of business restrictions is low. Despite the increase in cases, high-frequency data at the county and city levels, such as restaurant reservations, suggests that Americans are not overly concerned about the increase in infections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c444d95666172602a224b1eef836ef99\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The plan is to partner with Goldman Sachs to launch an installment payment service to benchmark against...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>\"Buy now, pay later\"</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company is developing a new service that allows consumers to repay Apple Pay spending in installments, in partnership with Affirm Holdings Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>Holdings Inc.'s \"buy now, pay later\" service competition.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the upcoming service, internally known as Apple Pay Later, will use Goldman Sachs as the lending bank for installment payments. Goldman Sachs has been a partner of Apple Credit Card since 2019, but people familiar with the matter said the new product is unrelated to Apple Credit Card and does not require the use of Apple Credit Card.</p><p>The \"buy now, Pay later\" service could help drive the popularity of Apple Pay and convince more users to use iPhones to Pay for goods instead of standard credit cards. Apple will receive a percentage of the revenue from Apple Pay transactions, bringing more revenue to the company's services business, which generates over $50 billion in annual revenue.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: Completely out of control! With CPI data exceeding expectations, is US inflation unstoppable?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: Completely out of control! With CPI data exceeding expectations, is US inflation unstoppable?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 05:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. US consumer prices surged again in June, exceeding economists' expectations.</b><b>2. San Francisco Fed President: Rising inflation is only a temporary phenomenon; bond-buying reduction may begin by the end of the year.</b><b>3. The U.S. budget deficit surged to $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of this fiscal year.</b><b>4. Author of *Black Swan*: Bitcoin value is \"completely zero\" and insufficient to serve as a currency and hedging tool.</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Even if the Delta strain triggers a pandemic, its impact on the US economy will be relatively \"mild.\"</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plan joint<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Launching installment payment services to benchmark against<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>\"Buy now, pay later\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c32e4994b5a618b7f8962f4d749841\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. consumer prices surged again in June, exceeding economists' expectations.</b></p><p>U.S. consumer price increases in June exceeded the expectations of all economists surveyed, indicating that rising commodity and labor costs brought about by the reopening of the economy continue to exacerbate inflationary pressures.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Tuesday, the consumer price index jumped 0.9% month-over-month in June. Year-on-year growth surged by 5.4%, marking the largest increase since August 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.9% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year, the largest increase since September 1991.</p><p>The Labor Department said used cars accounted for one-third of the CPI increase in June. The sharp rise in CPI was also largely due to price recoveries in categories related to the broader reopening of the economy, including hotel accommodations, car rentals, clothing, and airfares.</p><p>The Federal Reserve believes that these price increases will normalize over time, so inflationary pressures are only temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be1a9222227308463aa860babcc8368\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>San Francisco Fed President: Rising inflation is only a temporary phenomenon; bond-buying tapering may begin by the end of the year.</b></p><p>Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, believes that the largest increase in CPI since 2008 is likely just a temporary effect of the rapid economic recovery from the pandemic crisis.</p><p>Daly stated that she is \"optimistic\" about the economy's performance heading into the fall and believes it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to begin discussing tapering its monthly asset purchases now, with the tapering likely to begin at the end of this year or early next year.</p><p>In an interview on Tuesday, Daly said, \"It's appropriate to start talking about tapering asset purchases and reducing some of the easing measures we're providing to the economy. We'll still be in a very loose position, with low Federal Funds rate, but as the economy begins to stabilize, we don't need to keep all the tools.\"</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday showed that the CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month in June, the largest increase since 2008, and 5.4% year-on-year. Daly, who has voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, believes that used cars contributed more than a third of the CPI increase, indicating that the rise in inflation may be temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30972f443d50a6365b8e37354d896dce\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The U.S. budget deficit surged to $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of this fiscal year.</b></p><p>The U.S. budget deficit exceeded $2 trillion in the first three quarters of this fiscal year, and the federal government's full-year budget deficit may be close to last year's record level, demonstrating the continued impact of the Covid-19 crisis.</p><p>Data released by the Treasury Department on Tuesday showed a budget deficit of $174 billion in June. In comparison, the deficit in June 2020 was $864 billion, as the government implemented massive fiscal stimulus to curb the economic damage caused by the pandemic.</p><p>Although the monthly deficit is shrinking, Republicans in Washington are citing rising federal debt as a reason to oppose President Joe Biden's plans for the largest increase in social spending and addressing inequality in decades.</p><p>According to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the budget deficit will approach $3 trillion in fiscal year 2021 even without further spending. The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 was $3.13 trillion, the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio since World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5b4522b937bc8baee3a12d3aa8053b4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Author of \"Black Swan\": Bitcoin value is \"completely zero\" and insufficient to serve as a currency and hedging tool.</b></p><p>In a recent paper, Nassim Taleb, author of the best-selling book Black Swan, said Bitcoin failed to live up to its concept as an anarchic currency, a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven investment.</p><p>“There are few assets in financial history that are more vulnerable than Bitcoin,” Taleb said.</p><p>Taleb had expressed a more positive view of Bitcoin, but in his paper entitled “Bitcoin, Currency and Vulnerability,” published in late June, he called Bitcoin’s value “completely zero,” partly because it requires a sustained and substantial amount of interest to maintain.</p><p>In contrast, \"gold and other precious metals are essentially maintenance-free, do not degrade, and do not require maintenance to update their physical properties over time,\" he said.</p><p>Founded in 2008, Bitcoin has always been known for its volatility. Taleb pointed out that in March 2020, Bitcoin fell more than the stock market and recovered after “a large injection of liquidity,” which “is enough to prove that it is far from sufficient as a tail hedge against systemic risk.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e0da554e2da8d5eb64fcf3712c1bfd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Even if the Delta strain triggers a pandemic, its impact on the US economy will be relatively \"mild.\"</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists believe that thanks to widespread vaccination, a potential rebound in the pandemic triggered by the delta variant will not weaken U.S. consumer spending.</p><p>In a report to clients, Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Nicolae wrote that in some areas where COVID-19 cases have increased in recent weeks, there are few signs that restaurant reservations and broader consumer spending are slowing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Data from the UK, on the other side, also shows that the recent surge in cases in the country has had little impact on economic activity.</p><p>“If new cases and deaths reach higher levels, economic activity could decline sharply,” Nicolae said. \"But so far, the sensitivity of consumer activity in the United States and the United Kingdom has been low, which suggests that the economic impact of the delta strain outbreak will be mild.\"</p><p>COVID-19 cases have increased in many parts of the United States, mainly due to the more contagious delta strain. The regions with the largest increases are also those with the lowest vaccination rates.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that due to high vaccination rates, especially among the elderly, the risk of economic shutdowns and the reimposition of business restrictions is low. Despite the increase in cases, high-frequency data at the county and city levels, such as restaurant reservations, suggests that Americans are not overly concerned about the increase in infections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c444d95666172602a224b1eef836ef99\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The plan is to partner with Goldman Sachs to launch an installment payment service to benchmark against...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>\"Buy now, pay later\"</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company is developing a new service that allows consumers to repay Apple Pay spending in installments, in partnership with Affirm Holdings Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>Holdings Inc.'s \"buy now, pay later\" service competition.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the upcoming service, internally known as Apple Pay Later, will use Goldman Sachs as the lending bank for installment payments. Goldman Sachs has been a partner of Apple Credit Card since 2019, but people familiar with the matter said the new product is unrelated to Apple Credit Card and does not require the use of Apple Credit Card.</p><p>The \"buy now, Pay later\" service could help drive the popularity of Apple Pay and convince more users to use iPhones to Pay for goods instead of standard credit cards. Apple will receive a percentage of the revenue from Apple Pay transactions, bringing more revenue to the company's services business, which generates over $50 billion in annual revenue.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-14/doc-ikqcfnca6705157.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4153df93b18fe423c5d3fa744eb9ee74","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-14/doc-ikqcfnca6705157.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151607825","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国6月份消费者价格再次飙升 超过了经济学家的预期\n\n\n2、旧金山联储行长：通胀升高只是暂时现象 减码购债或于年末启动\n\n\n3、美国本财年前九个月预算赤字激增至2.24万亿美元\n\n\n4、《黑天鹅》作者：比特币价值“完全为零” 不足以作为货币和对冲工具\n\n\n5、高盛：Delta毒株即使引爆疫情 对美国经济影响也较“温和”\n\n\n6、苹果计划联合高盛推出分期付款服务 对标PayPal的“先买后付”\n\n\n美国6月份消费者价格再次飙升 超过了经济学家的预期\n6月份美国消费者价格涨幅超过了接受调查的所有经济学家的预期，表明经济重新开放带来的大宗商品和劳动力成本上升继续加剧通胀压力。\n根据美国劳工部周二发布的数据，6月份消费者价格指数环比跃升0.9%；同比则激增5.4%，创下2008年8月以来的最大涨幅。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分，所谓的核心CPI也环比上涨0.9%，同比上升4.5%，为1991年9月以来最大涨幅。\n劳工部表示，二手车占到了6月份CPI升幅的三分之一。CPI大幅上涨在很大程度上也是由于与经济更广泛重新开放相关的类别出现价格回升，包括酒店住宿、汽车租赁、服装和机票等。\n美联储认为这些物价增长随着时间推移将会正常化，因此通胀压力只是暂时性的。\n\n旧金山联储行长：通胀升高只是暂时现象 减码购债或于年末启动\n旧金山联邦储备银行行长Mary Daly认为，CPI创下2008年以来最大升幅很可能只是经济迅速从疫情危机中复苏而带来的暂时性影响。\nDaly表示，她“看好”经济进入秋季的表现，并认为美联储现在开始讨论缩减每月资产购买规模是合适的，减码启动时间可能发生在今年年底或明年年初。\nDaly周二在接受采访时说：“现在开始谈论缩减资产购买及减少我们为经济提供的一些宽松措施是合适的。我们仍将处于非常宽松的位置，联邦基金利率较低，但随着经济开始站稳脚跟，我们没有必要保留所有工具”。\n美国劳工部周二发布数据显示 ，6月份CPI环比上升0.9%，创下自2008年以来最大增幅，同比涨幅5.4%。今年在联邦公开市场委员会有投票权的Daly认为，二手车贡献了CPI的三分之一以上涨幅，表明通胀上升可能是暂时的。\n\n美国本财年前九个月预算赤字激增至2.24万亿美元\n美国本财年前三季度的预算赤字超过2万亿美元，联邦政府全年预算赤字可能接近去年的创纪录水平，证明了Covid-19危机的持续影响。\n财政部周二公布的数据显示，6月份预算赤字1740亿美元。相比之下，2020年6月的赤字为8640亿美元，因政府实施大规模财政刺激来遏制疫情的经济破坏。\n虽然月度赤字在减少，但华盛顿的共和党人以联邦债务的增加为理由，反对总统乔·拜登数十年来最大规模增加的社会支出、解决不平等问题的计划。\n根据非党派的国会预算办公室的估计，2021财年即使没有进一步支出，预算赤字也将接近3万亿美元。2020财年的预算赤字是3.13万亿美元，赤字/GDP比例为二战以来最高。\n\n《黑天鹅》作者：比特币价值“完全为零” 不足以作为货币和对冲工具\n畅销书《黑天鹅》的作者纳西姆-塔勒布（Nassim Taleb）在最近的一篇论文中表示，比特币未能满足其作为无政府货币、对冲通胀的工具和避险投资的概念。\n“金融史上很少有资产比比特币更脆弱，”塔勒布说。\n塔勒布曾对比特币发表过更积极的看法，但他在6月下旬发表的题为“比特币、货币和脆弱性”的论文中称比特币的价值“完全为零”，部分原因是其需要持续大量的兴趣来维持。\n相比之下，“黄金和其他贵金属基本上无需维护，不会降解，也不需要维护以随着时间的推移更新其物理特性，”他说。\n创建于2008年的比特币一直以波动性著称。塔勒布指出，在2020年3月，比特币的跌幅超过了股市，并在“大量注入流动性后”随之复苏，这“足以证明其远不足以作为针对系统性风险的尾部对冲”。\n\n高盛：Delta毒株即使引爆疫情 对美国经济影响也较“温和”\n高盛经济学家认为，拜疫苗广泛接种所赐，以delta变异毒株引发的潜在疫情反弹不会削弱美国消费支出。\n高盛分析师Laura Nicolae在给客户的报告中写道，在近几周新冠病例增加的部分地区，几乎没有迹象表明餐厅预订和更广泛的消费者支出正在放缓 ，而大西洋彼岸英国的数据也显示，该国最近病例激增对经济活动影响甚微。\n“如果新增病例和死亡人数达到更高水平，经济活动可能会急剧下降，”Nicolae表示。 “但迄今为止，美国和英国消费者活动的敏感性较低，这说明delta毒株爆发疫情对经济影响将是温和的。”\n新冠病例在美国许多地区都出现增加，主要是传染性更强的delta毒株所致。增幅最大的也是疫苗接种率最低的地区。\n高盛认为，由于疫苗接种率很高，特别是在老年人群中，经济停摆和重新实施商业限制的风险较低。尽管病例有所增加，但县和市一级的高频数据（例如餐厅预订）表明美国人并不过分担心感染的增加。\n\n苹果计划联合高盛推出分期付款服务 对标PayPal的“先买后付”\n苹果公司正在开发一项新服务，让消费者可以分期偿还Apple Pay的支出，与Affirm Holdings Inc．和PayPal Holdings Inc．的“先买后付”服务竞争。\n知情人士说，即将推出的这项服务在内部称为Apple Pay Later，将使用高盛集团作为分期付款所需的贷款银行。高盛自2019年以来一直是苹果信用卡的合作伙伴，但知情人士说，新产品与苹果信用卡无关，不需要使用苹果信用卡。\n“先买后付”服务可能有助于推动Apple Pay的普及，并说服更多用户使用iPhone来支付商品，而不是标准信用卡。苹果会从Apple Pay交易中获得一定比例的分成，为该公司年收入超500亿美元的服务业务带来更多收入。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":809815476,"gmtCreate":1627357555895,"gmtModify":1703488309236,"author":{"id":"3583894443449197","authorId":"3583894443449197","name":"水蜜桃糖果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0428d0127c48bddfbf554d759c7bc1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583894443449197","idStr":"3583894443449197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi...morning","listText":"Hi...morning","text":"Hi...morning","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac2e280cbef9d76130dd1048d3a9e12e","width":"1080","height":"2189"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809815476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144233284,"gmtCreate":1626298070848,"gmtModify":1703757229123,"author":{"id":"3583894443449197","authorId":"3583894443449197","name":"水蜜桃糖果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0428d0127c48bddfbf554d759c7bc1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583894443449197","idStr":"3583894443449197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144233284","repostId":"2151217519","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151217519","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626315521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151217519?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The bull market window is about to close.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151217519","media":"格隆汇","summary":"且行且珍惜","content":"<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>However, economic data is constantly betting on the other side.</p><p>On July 13 local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, respectively, and marking the highest level since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the pandemic last year, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible, with the core CPI rising by as much as 4.5% year-on-year after excluding volatile food and energy prices. However, thanks to previous preparations, the capital market's reaction has become increasingly calm. Last night, the three major US stock indices only fell slightly by about 0.3%, while US Treasury bonds and gold did not fluctuate much.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's arguments or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing stimulating the economy is becoming increasingly intense for the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>Although it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about scaling back bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been calling for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment,\" releasing signals to the market from time to time, whether hawkish or dovish. It can give investors ample time to take precautions and hedge. After several rounds, the number of people betting on policy decreased by more than half, and the Federal Reserve's turning point became much smoother.</p><p>Since the US CPI crossed the 2% safe boundary in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases (Taper) or even rate hike this year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation is tolerable until these two goals are achieved, it cannot be ruled out that persistently high inflation will change the FED's attitude.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this, and whether or not immediate action is needed no longer depends on the magnitude of inflationary pressure, but on how the Federal Reserve judges it.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report released on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, with the surge in labor demand outpacing the recovery in labor supply. Supply chain bottlenecks have eased somewhat, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressures remain considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statements made by Federal Reserve officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously pushed forward the market's expected inflection point. If the PPI data released next also far exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen market concerns and bring forward the expectation of exit actions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the widely accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal a tapering of bond purchases at its annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. Federal Reserve officials and institutions are expected to primarily hint and leak information, with predictions for when it will be implemented focusing on the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Prior to this, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is certain that the global liquidity turning point will eventually arrive.</p><p><b>At this critical juncture, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trends, the reasons make perfect sense.</b></p><p>Due to the significant recovery gaps among countries during last year's pandemic, China's rapid recovery, coupled with its large and well-developed manufacturing supply capacity, has benefited from a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth is precisely due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, with the control of the epidemic and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the US and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months shows that while the global manufacturing PMI is strengthening, China's new export orders have declined significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this backdrop, it has become a consensus that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the return of monetary easing is precisely to offset this impact in advance.</p><p>However, over the past 10 years, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has been 133 basis points. Last September, the interest rate differential between China and the United States was 235 basis points, while now it is only 155 basis points. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States begins to tighten monetary policy, the room for flexibility will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, the mismatch between Chinese and American monetary policies has raised new concerns in the market: how much room for maneuver and adjustment do we still have?</p><p>However, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, expressed his views yesterday.<b>He believes that discussions about the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy will have little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>Let's look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a positive direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, making it a veritable world factory. The United States was also able to continue to play in finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>The United States experienced a severe financial crisis that quickly swept the globe, and China also suffered greatly, rushing to launch a \"four trillion yuan\" market rescue plan. This has led to a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what went wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China joined the WTO, it relocated its own manufacturing industry more recklessly. The emptiness of the real economy led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially the financial sector, which was the root of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of returning manufacturing.</p><p>China, on the other hand, takes a more nuanced stance. The United States relies excessively on the dollar's status and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the dollar's cyclical fluctuations will be quite drastic. However, the United States can use the global market to hedge against dollar fluctuations, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply tied to the United States. Their monetary policies can only passively follow suit. They do well when the dollar expands, but when the dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed years of WTO benefits and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy.\" When the economic crisis arrived, demand from Europe and the United States declined rapidly, foreign trade plummeted, and a large number of export manufacturing industries collapsed, leading to a rapid increase in the unemployed population. This is precisely the manifestation of this.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is of paramount importance.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China also began a series of adjustments, the most important of which was to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it was to find a way to break free from the precedent of being overly tied to the United States.</p><p>As for specific approaches, the Belt and Road Initiative is one example, infrastructure + real estate is another, shifting from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is another example, and there are also...<b>Adjustments to monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to experiment with directly using the RMB for settlement in foreign trade with some neighboring countries, which led to a rapid increase in the international use of the RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan, but in 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\" changed the RMB from being pegged to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, changes in the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and forming a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchors\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a considerable price. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform,\" the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly. Coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange controls, countless companies took advantage of these loopholes to continuously arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, resulting in a loss of $900 billion in foreign exchange reserves for China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, however, the results have been significant. At the very least, China has gradually demonstrated its autonomy and independence in choosing its monetary policy. This may be the source of Director Sun's confidence.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What will the mismatch between the Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, almost all emerging economies were wiped out, and some countries suffered particularly severely. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey all depreciated to record lows, and Brazil's GDP experienced the largest decline in history.</p><p><b>Because the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the initiative and took proactive measures, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was low among emerging markets, thus avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In terms of monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the US, and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the People's Bank of China moved away from the pace of the US and Europe, taking the lead in both monetary easing and monetary policy.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held nine joint rate hike, with Federal Funds rate increasing the rate to 2.25%-2.50%. Meanwhile, China was cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the benchmark one-year loan rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark one-year deposit rate was also lowered multiple times by 0.25 percentage points, to 1.75%. The benchmark interest rates for other loans and deposits, as well as the interest rates for personal housing provident fund deposits and loans, will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve again introduced massive monetary easing, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberate pursuits, but rather decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it replaced the old path of relying solely on monetary stimulus with export dividends through rapid epidemic prevention and control. This reserve requirement ratio cut is quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely disregarding the Federal Reserve. After all, the engine of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely we who want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as the pressure of RMB depreciation and capital outflows if the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expect. Externally, we face the risk of reduced exports, and on the monetary side, we need to worry about the pressure brought about by the Federal Reserve's monetary turning point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited. Domestically, investment momentum is insufficient, and the domestic economic cycle driven by high hopes for consumption has not yet achieved significant results. Once liquidity tightens, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the same situation of tight demand and liquidity as last year.</p><p>Under a combination of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next most likely monetary policy action is not to ease liquidity or join the ranks of significant tightening, but rather to control overall quantity, adjust structures, provide targeted guidance, and strictly control the idle circulation of regulatory funds, truly guiding liquidity to where it should go, such as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and people's livelihoods.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovative Technology</a>In areas such as green economy.</p><p>The government now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and the consumer economy, and the momentum is very strong. Therefore, we can also imagine that any obstacles that hinder the achievement of this goal will continue to be suppressed and eliminated, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, healthcare, and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, the situation for the capital market may not be very optimistic.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>Stock prices depend on the industry in the long run, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and the A-share market has also shifted from broad-based gains to divergence and consolidation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the chart below—divergence—is happening. If monetary policy really tightens in the future, then the fourth quadrant—the widespread devastation of the capital market—will most likely repeat itself, but the question is to what extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When making investments, we should be willing to decide whether to stay or leave based on the worst-case scenario, and listen to thunderclaps in silence.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much longer.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market window is about to close.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market window is about to close.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 10:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The chairman of the Federal Reserve has told the world more than once that inflation is temporary.</p><p>However, economic data is constantly betting on the other side.</p><p>On July 13 local time, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.4% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month in June, both significantly exceeding market expectations of 5% and 0.5%, respectively, and marking the highest level since November 1991.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/888eb42e4db3b0c5c87cb722b4696fea\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Even taking into account the low base caused by the pandemic last year, the deterioration in inflation data is still visible, with the core CPI rising by as much as 4.5% year-on-year after excluding volatile food and energy prices. However, thanks to previous preparations, the capital market's reaction has become increasingly calm. Last night, the three major US stock indices only fell slightly by about 0.3%, while US Treasury bonds and gold did not fluctuate much.</p><p>Whether the market continues to believe Powell's arguments or not, the contradiction between inflationary pressures and monetary easing stimulating the economy is becoming increasingly intense for the Federal Reserve.</p><p>As Fed official Daly said,<b>Although it is too early to talk about rate hike, it is appropriate to start talking about scaling back bond purchases.</b></p><p><h3></h3><h3></h3><h3>1</h3><h3><b>When will Taper, who has been calling for months, come?</b></h3></p><p>The Federal Reserve is very good at \"expectation adjustment,\" releasing signals to the market from time to time, whether hawkish or dovish. It can give investors ample time to take precautions and hedge. After several rounds, the number of people betting on policy decreased by more than half, and the Federal Reserve's turning point became much smoother.</p><p>Since the US CPI crossed the 2% safe boundary in March, more and more investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will Taper its bond purchases (Taper) or even rate hike this year. Although Powell's monetary policy framework is anchored to the economy and employment, and short-term inflation is tolerable until these two goals are achieved, it cannot be ruled out that persistently high inflation will change the FED's attitude.</p><p>However, it is obviously unrealistic to change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy immediately in the short term. After all, the situation is already like this, and whether or not immediate action is needed no longer depends on the magnitude of inflationary pressure, but on how the Federal Reserve judges it.</p><p>According to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy report released on July 9, the U.S. economy is recovering strongly, but there are structural problems in the labor market, with the surge in labor demand outpacing the recovery in labor supply. Supply chain bottlenecks have eased somewhat, but historically high order backlogs and historically low customer inventories indicate that supply chain pressures remain considerable.</p><p>Regardless of the statements made by Federal Reserve officials, the market's expectations are nothing more than the following four. Four consecutive months of inflation data have continuously pushed forward the market's expected inflection point. If the PPI data released next also far exceeds expectations, the pressure on the production side will continue to be transmitted to the consumer side, which will further deepen market concerns and bring forward the expectation of exit actions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faac576652e8615d3304495446b7b963\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Currently, the widely accepted view is that the Federal Reserve will signal a tapering of bond purchases at its annual Jackson Hole symposium in August. Federal Reserve officials and institutions are expected to primarily hint and leak information, with predictions for when it will be implemented focusing on the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Prior to this, the FOMC meeting at the end of July may reveal some key information.</p><p>There may still be many uncertainties in the short term, but in the long term, everyone is certain that the global liquidity turning point will eventually arrive.</p><p><b>At this critical juncture, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio again, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. However, looking at the current economic data trends, the reasons make perfect sense.</b></p><p>Due to the significant recovery gaps among countries during last year's pandemic, China's rapid recovery, coupled with its large and well-developed manufacturing supply capacity, has benefited from a wave of foreign trade dividends, and its rapid economic growth is precisely due to a large number of overseas export orders. However, with the control of the epidemic and the increase in vaccination rates in developed countries in the US and Europe, the economy and society have returned to normal, orders have begun to flow back, and foreign trade demand for China will decline significantly. Economic data in recent months shows that while the global manufacturing PMI is strengthening, China's new export orders have declined significantly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27915c35665b835d06bac810fc988107\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"689\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Against this backdrop, it has become a consensus that the downward pressure on China's economy is increasing, and the return of monetary easing is precisely to offset this impact in advance.</p><p>However, over the past 10 years, the average interest rate differential between China and the United States has been 133 basis points. Last September, the interest rate differential between China and the United States was 235 basis points, while now it is only 155 basis points. From this perspective, the room for easing has been greatly reduced. Once the United States begins to tighten monetary policy, the room for flexibility will become much narrower.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f34f62f4dead8f935be9c3003e61ec66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"212\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Now, the mismatch between Chinese and American monetary policies has raised new concerns in the market: how much room for maneuver and adjustment do we still have?</p><p>However, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, expressed his views yesterday.<b>He believes that discussions about the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy will have little impact on China's monetary policy and financial markets.</b></p><p>Where does this confidence come from?</p><p><h3>2</h3><h3><b>Has the ten-year pursuit of monetary independence come true?</b></h3>Let's look back at what has happened in the past 20 years.</p><p>After joining the WTO in 2001, the economic interdependence between China and the United States deepened, and everything seemed to be developing in a positive direction. China's GDP growth rate exceeded 10% year after year, making it a veritable world factory. The United States was also able to continue to play in finance and real estate.</p><p>However, in 2008, it all came to an abrupt end.</p><p>The United States experienced a severe financial crisis that quickly swept the globe, and China also suffered greatly, rushing to launch a \"four trillion yuan\" market rescue plan. This has led to a \"crack\" in the cooperative relationship between China and the United States. In fact, both sides are reflecting on what went wrong in the past eight years.</p><p>The United States believes that after China joined the WTO, it relocated its own manufacturing industry more recklessly. The emptiness of the real economy led to the excessive expansion of the virtual economy, especially the financial sector, which was the root of the crisis. Therefore, Obama shouted the banner of returning manufacturing.</p><p>China, on the other hand, takes a more nuanced stance. The United States relies excessively on the dollar's status and debt expansion to develop its economy, which determines that the dollar's cyclical fluctuations will be quite drastic. However, the United States can use the global market to hedge against dollar fluctuations, while other countries do not have this strength, especially those deeply tied to the United States. Their monetary policies can only passively follow suit. They do well when the dollar expands, but when the dollar contracts, it is often accompanied by a sharp economic downturn. Before the financial crisis, China enjoyed years of WTO benefits and evolved into a proud \"export-oriented economy.\" When the economic crisis arrived, demand from Europe and the United States declined rapidly, foreign trade plummeted, and a large number of export manufacturing industries collapsed, leading to a rapid increase in the unemployed population. This is precisely the manifestation of this.</p><p><b>In a country as large and populous as China, stability is of paramount importance.</b></p><p>Therefore, after stabilizing the economic situation, China also began a series of adjustments, the most important of which was to follow its own path. To put it more bluntly, it was to find a way to break free from the precedent of being overly tied to the United States.</p><p>As for specific approaches, the Belt and Road Initiative is one example, infrastructure + real estate is another, shifting from export dependence to stimulating domestic demand is another example, and there are also...<b>Adjustments to monetary policy.</b></p><p>In 2009, China began to experiment with directly using the RMB for settlement in foreign trade with some neighboring countries, which led to a rapid increase in the international use of the RMB. In 2009, the foreign trade settlement volume of RMB was only a few billion yuan, but in 2015, it exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time.</p><p>In 2015, the \"811 Exchange Rate Reform\" changed the RMB from being pegged to the US dollar to selecting several major currencies, giving them corresponding weights, and forming a currency basket. At the same time, based on market supply and demand, changes in the RMB multilateral exchange rate index were calculated with reference to a basket of currencies, maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and forming a managed floating exchange rate system.</p><p><b>In short, it has shifted from \"single anchor\" to \"multiple anchors\".</b></p><p>In this process, China paid a considerable price. For example, after the \"811 exchange rate reform,\" the RMB exchange rate depreciated rapidly. Coupled with loopholes in foreign exchange controls, countless companies took advantage of these loopholes to continuously arbitrage foreign exchange and export overseas, resulting in a loss of $900 billion in foreign exchange reserves for China.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b3a271c3dc1fe350866d5bcc7957488\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Overall, however, the results have been significant. At the very least, China has gradually demonstrated its autonomy and independence in choosing its monetary policy. This may be the source of Director Sun's confidence.</p><p><h3>3</h3><h3><b>What will the mismatch between the Chinese and American currencies bring?</b></h3>In the second half of 2015, the Federal Reserve entered a rate hike cycle, almost all emerging economies were wiped out, and some countries suffered particularly severely. The currencies of Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey all depreciated to record lows, and Brazil's GDP experienced the largest decline in history.</p><p><b>Because the \"811\" exchange rate reform seized the initiative and took proactive measures, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar was low among emerging markets, thus avoiding the outbreak of systemic risks. In terms of monetary policy, China has also shown more independence than ever before. Before 2008, the monetary policies of China, the US, and Europe tended to be synchronized; After the outbreak of the financial crisis, the People's Bank of China moved away from the pace of the US and Europe, taking the lead in both monetary easing and monetary policy.</b></p><p>For example, from December 2015 to December 2018, the Federal Reserve held nine joint rate hike, with Federal Funds rate increasing the rate to 2.25%-2.50%. Meanwhile, China was cutting interest rates. On March 1, May 11, June 28, and August 26, 2015, the benchmark one-year loan rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the benchmark one-year deposit rate was also lowered multiple times by 0.25 percentage points, to 1.75%. The benchmark interest rates for other loans and deposits, as well as the interest rates for personal housing provident fund deposits and loans, will be adjusted accordingly.</p><p>During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Federal Reserve again introduced massive monetary easing, but the economic cycles and monetary policies of China and the United States once again mismatched.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f86c69384ada404e06c2c0346b5823\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The two mismatches were not deliberate pursuits, but rather decisions made by China based on its own actual situation. For example, in 2015, it needed to solve the problem of local debt maturity and high real estate inventory. In 2020, it replaced the old path of relying solely on monetary stimulus with export dividends through rapid epidemic prevention and control. This reserve requirement ratio cut is quite similar to that of 2015.</p><p><b>However, this independence does not mean completely disregarding the Federal Reserve. After all, the engine of the global economy is still the United States, and it is precisely we who want to strike a balance between the Federal Reserve and our own national conditions. Of course, what China needs to face next is how to deal with issues such as the pressure of RMB depreciation and capital outflows if the Federal Reserve tightens liquidity significantly ahead of schedule due to inflationary pressures.</b></p><p>The second half of the year may be much more difficult than we expect. Externally, we face the risk of reduced exports, and on the monetary side, we need to worry about the pressure brought about by the Federal Reserve's monetary turning point. The window for relatively loose liquidity is limited. Domestically, investment momentum is insufficient, and the domestic economic cycle driven by high hopes for consumption has not yet achieved significant results. Once liquidity tightens, many small and medium-sized enterprises will face the same situation of tight demand and liquidity as last year.</p><p>Under a combination of internal and external pressures, the central bank's next most likely monetary policy action is not to ease liquidity or join the ranks of significant tightening, but rather to control overall quantity, adjust structures, provide targeted guidance, and strictly control the idle circulation of regulatory funds, truly guiding liquidity to where it should go, such as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and people's livelihoods.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C76.SI\">Innovative Technology</a>In areas such as green economy.</p><p>The government now has a clear goal of boosting the vitality of domestic enterprises and the consumer economy, and the momentum is very strong. Therefore, we can also imagine that any obstacles that hinder the achievement of this goal will continue to be suppressed and eliminated, such as real estate speculation, anti-monopoly, education, healthcare, and so on.</p><p>However, in either case, the situation for the capital market may not be very optimistic.</p><p><h3>4</h3><h3><b>epilogue</b></h3><b>Stock prices depend on the industry in the long run, fundamentals in the medium term, and liquidity in the short term.</b></p><p>From March last year to now, we have experienced a typical process from \"economic improvement, monetary easing\" to \"economic improvement, monetary tightening\", and the A-share market has also shifted from broad-based gains to divergence and consolidation.</p><p>What happened in the third quadrant of the chart below—divergence—is happening. If monetary policy really tightens in the future, then the fourth quadrant—the widespread devastation of the capital market—will most likely repeat itself, but the question is to what extent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07795caec6befd3c17e9d5e3dab7b3ff\" tg-width=\"481\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>When making investments, we should be willing to decide whether to stay or leave based on the worst-case scenario, and listen to thunderclaps in silence.</p><p>As for those investors who failed to make money in the first half of the year, time and opportunities may not be much longer.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a97a16afe8e75d415a74db18ceb0a4c","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","CYB":"人民币ETF-WisdomTree Dreyfus","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/475503","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2151217519","content_text":"美联储主席不止一次地告诉世界，通胀是暂时的。\n不过，经济数据正在不断押注另一边。\n当地时间7月13日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，6月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比增长5.4%，环比上涨0.9%，均大幅超出市场预期的5%、0.5%，同时创下1991年11月以来最高记录。\n\n即便考虑到去年疫情导致的低基数，通胀数据的恶化依然肉眼可见，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比涨幅高达4.5%。但是，通过前几次的铺垫，资本市场的反应越来越平淡，昨晚美股三大指数只微跌0.3%左右，美债、黄金异动都不大。\n无论市场是否继续相信鲍威尔的论调，对美联储来说，通胀压力和货币宽松刺激经济的矛盾日益激烈。\n正如联储官员戴利所说，虽然现在谈论加息还为时过早，但开始谈论缩减购债是合适的。\n\n\n1\n喊了几个月的Taper，啥时候来？\n\n\n美联储很擅长做“预期调节”这件事，不定时地向市场释放信号，鹰派的、鸽派的，放风可以放足一年，给投资者充足的时间做预防和对冲。反复几次下来，和政策对赌的人少了一大半，美联储的拐弯就平滑了许多。\n从3月份美国CPI跨过2%的安全边界之后，押注美联储在年内将缩减购债规模（Taper）甚至加息的投资者越来越多。虽然鲍威尔的货币政策框架锚定的是经济和就业，这两个目标未完成前，短期通胀是可以被容忍的，但不排除持续过高的通胀改变FED的态度。\n不过，短期内马上改变美联储货币政策显然不太现实，毕竟事态已经这样了，需不需要立即采取行动就不再取决于通胀压力有多大，而是美联储如何判断。\n根据7月9日美联储发布的货币政策报告，美国经济正在强劲复苏，但是劳动力市场存在结构性问题，劳动力需求的激增超过了劳动力供应的复苏；供应链瓶颈有所缓解，但历史高位的订单积压和历史低位的客户库存表明供应链压力依然不小。\n无论美联储官员的表态如何，市场的预期不外乎以下4种。连续4个月的通胀数据，不断将市场的预期拐点向前移。如果接下来公布的PPI数据同样大超预期，生产端的压力继续向消费端传导，将会进一步加深市场的担忧，退出动作的预期也会继续提前。\n\n当前，比较受认可的观点是，美联储将在8月的杰克逊霍尔年度专题研讨会上抛出缩减购债信号。预期会先以暗示、放风为主，具体何时落地，联储官员和机构的预测集中在今年年底和明年年初。在此之前，7月底的FOMC会议或许会透露出一些关键信息。\n短期上或许还存在诸多不确定性，但远期上，所有人都确信，全球流动性拐点终将到来。\n在这个节骨眼上，国内央行却意外地再度降准，释放出约1万亿的流动性，但再看看目前的经济数据趋势，理由是很能说得通的。\n由于去年的疫情中各国存在较大的恢复差，中国的快速恢复，且庞大而完善的制造业供应能力，吃到一波外贸红利，经济快速增长正是得益于大量的海外出口订单。但如今，随着美欧发达国家疫情控制、疫苗接种率的提升，经济社会恢复正常，订单开始回流，对中国的外贸需求将出现明显的下降，近几个月的经济数据显示，全球制造业PMI景气走强的同时，中国新出口订单明显回落。\n\n在这个背景下，中国经济下行压力加大已成各方共识，货币重新偏向宽松，正是为了提前对冲这种影响。\n但过去10年，中美平均利差为133BP，去年9月中美利差为235BP，而现在只有155个BP，从这个角度看，宽松的空间已经大大缩减，一旦美国开始收水，货币政策的弹性空间就会变得狭窄很多。\n\n如今，中美货币政策的错配，又引发市场新的担忧，我们还有多大腾挪调配的空间？\n不过，昨日央行货币政策司司长孙国峰发表观点，他认为关于美联储货币政策转向的讨论对中国货币政策、金融市场的影响较小。\n这个底气从何而来？\n2\n十年货币独立性追求，成真了吗？\n我们不妨回顾一下过去20年发生的事情。\n2001加入世贸之后，中国和美国经济相互依存度加深，一切貌似都朝着美好的方向发展，中国GDP增速连年超过10%，成了名副其实的世界工厂，美国也得以继续玩金融，玩地产。\n但是，2008年，一切戛然而止。\n美国爆发了严重的金融危机，并且迅速席卷全球，中国也深受其害，急冲冲启动“四万亿”的救市计划。由此引发的，是中美双方合作关系的“裂痕”，其实双方都在反思，过去8年到底出了什么问题。\n美国认为中国加入世贸后，自己因为更肆无忌惮地移走自家的制造业，实体经济的空虚，导致虚拟经济，尤其是金融的过度膨胀，是危机的根源，所以奥巴马才喊出制造业回归的旗号。\n而中国，态度则更加微妙。美国过分依赖美元地位、债务扩张等方式发展经济，决定了美元的周期波动会比较剧烈，但美国能够利用全球去对冲美元的波动，其他国家则没有这个实力，尤其是深度跟美国绑定的国家，货币政策只能被动跟随，在美元扩张时日子过得不错，但是美元收缩时，常常伴随着剧烈的经济下行。金融危机前，中国享受了多年的世贸红利，并演变为引以为傲的“出口导向型经济”，经济危机来临，欧美需求快速下滑，外贸重挫，伴随而来的是大量出口制造业倒闭，失业人口迅速膨胀，正是这种体现。\n中国这样体型庞大、人口众多的国家，稳定比什么都重要。\n所以，在稳住经济形势之后，中国也开始了一系列的调整，其中最重要的一条，就是走自己的路，说得再直白一点，就是想办法从过度绑定美国的前车之鉴中抽身。\n至于具体的做法，一带一路算一个，基建+地产算一个，由出口依赖转向刺激内需也算一个，还有货币政策的调整。\n2009年，中国开始尝试跟周边一些国家做对外贸易上，直接使用人民结算，推动人民币的国际使用量迅速增加。2009年，人民币的外贸结算量只有几十亿元，2015年，首次突破10万亿元。\n2015年，“811汇改”，人民币从单一盯住美元，改为选择若干种主要货币，赋予相应的权重，组成一个货币篮子，同时，以市场供求为基础，参考一篮子货币计算人民币多边汇率指数的变化，维护人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基础稳定，形成有管理的浮动汇率制。\n简而言之，就是从“单锚”转向了“多锚”。\n在这个过程中，中国付出了不少代价，如“811汇改”后，人民币汇率快速贬值，加上外汇管制上的漏洞，无数企业利用这种漏洞，不断地套汇输出海外，中国损失了9000亿美元外汇储备。\n\n但总体上，收效还是很大的，起码，中国在货币政策的选择上，逐渐体现出了自主的独立性。这可能就是孙司长所言的底气。\n3\n中美货币的错配，带来什么？\n2015年下半年，美联储进入加息周期，新兴经济体几乎全军覆没，部分国家更是格外惨烈，巴西、南非和土耳其货币均贬至纪录低位，巴西 GDP 创史上最大降幅。\n由于“811”汇改抢占先机、主动防御，人民币兑美元汇率的贬值幅度在新兴市场中居于低位，避免了系统性风险的爆发。在货币政策上，中国也表现出了比以往更多的独立性。2008年之前，中美欧货币政策趋于同步；金融危机爆发后，中国央行的节奏脱离美欧的步伐，收放水都领先一步。\n如美联储从2015年12月到2018年12月，美联储共同加息9次，联邦基金利率加至2.25%-2.50%。而此时的中国，却在降息，2015年3月1日、5月11日、6月28日、8月26日，一年期贷款基准利率下调均下调0.25个百分点，由5.6%将至4.6%，一年期存款基准利率也多次下调0.25个百分点，至1.75%；其他各档次贷款及存款基准利率、个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。\n2020年的新冠疫情，美联储再次大放水，但中美两国的经济周期和货币政策再次出现错配。\n\n两次的配错，并非刻意追求，更多的是中国出于自身的实际情况做出的决策，如2015年需要解决地方债务到期问题、房地产高库存问题，2020年则是通过快速的疫情防控，用出口红利代替了纯粹依靠货币刺激的老路。这次降准，也颇有2015年时的意思。\n不过，这种独立性并不等于完全不顾美联储，毕竟全球经济的火车头还是美国，恰恰是我们想在美联储和自身国情中取平衡。当然，中国接下来需要面对的是，如果美联储因为通胀压力大幅提前收紧流动性的节奏，人民币贬值压力和资本外流等问题上，该如何应对。\n下半年或许比我们预期要艰难许多，对外，面临出口缩减风险，货币方面又需要担心美联储货币拐点带来的压力，流动性相对宽松的窗口有限；对内，投资动力不足，寄与厚望的消费拉动的内循环经济成效还不够显著，一旦资金面收紧，很多中小微企业又会面临去年那样需求与资金面紧缺的局面。\n内外压力联合作用下，接下来央行对货币政策比较可能采取的操作可能不是放松流动性，或加入明显收紧行列，而更可能是总量控制，结构调整，定向引导，严控监管资金空转，真正把流动性引导至真正应该去的地方，比如中小微，民生经济，创新科技、绿色经济等方面。\n国家现在对提振国内企业活力、民众消费经济的目标很明确，动能也很强烈。由此，我们也可以想象得到，但凡对这个目标实现构成影响的阻碍，都会继续被压制和清理，比如炒房、反垄断、教育、医疗等等。\n但无论哪一种情况，对于资本市场面来说，可能都不会是一个很乐观的局面。\n4\n结语\n股价这个东西，长期看行业，中期看基本面，短期看流动性。\n去年3月到现在，我们经历了一波典型的从“经济向好，货币宽松”到“经济向好，货币收紧”的过程，大A也从普涨转变为分化抱团。\n下图第三象限所发生的事情--分化正在发生，如果接下来的货币真的向紧，那么第四象限--哀鸿遍野的资本市场也大概率会重演，只是程度有多大的问题。\n\n做投资，我们要不吝以最差的预期决定去留，于无声处听惊雷。\n至于那些上半年没能赚到钱的投资者，时间和机会可能并不多了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"CYB":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UCmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"CNHmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145465003,"gmtCreate":1626238603002,"gmtModify":1703756133417,"author":{"id":"3583894443449197","authorId":"3583894443449197","name":"水蜜桃糖果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0428d0127c48bddfbf554d759c7bc1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583894443449197","idStr":"3583894443449197"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/145465003","repostId":"2151607825","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151607825","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626212171,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151607825?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 05:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: Completely out of control! With CPI data exceeding expectations, is US inflation unstoppable?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151607825","media":"新浪财经","summary":"剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分，所谓的核心CPI也环比上涨0.9%，同比上升4.5%，为1991年9月以来最大涨幅。劳工部表示，二手车占到了6月份CPI升幅的三分之一。CPI大幅上涨在很大程度上也是由于与经济更广泛重新开放相关的类别出现价格回升，包括酒店住宿、汽车租赁、服装和机票等。美国劳工部周二发布数据显示 ，6月份CPI环比上升0.9%，创下自2008年以来最大增幅，同比涨幅5.4%。增幅最大的也是疫苗接种率最低的地区。","content":"<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. US consumer prices surged again in June, exceeding economists' expectations.</b><b>2. San Francisco Fed President: Rising inflation is only a temporary phenomenon; bond-buying reduction may begin by the end of the year.</b><b>3. The U.S. budget deficit surged to $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of this fiscal year.</b><b>4. Author of *Black Swan*: Bitcoin value is \"completely zero\" and insufficient to serve as a currency and hedging tool.</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Even if the Delta strain triggers a pandemic, its impact on the US economy will be relatively \"mild.\"</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plan joint<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Launching installment payment services to benchmark against<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>\"Buy now, pay later\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c32e4994b5a618b7f8962f4d749841\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. consumer prices surged again in June, exceeding economists' expectations.</b></p><p>U.S. consumer price increases in June exceeded the expectations of all economists surveyed, indicating that rising commodity and labor costs brought about by the reopening of the economy continue to exacerbate inflationary pressures.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Tuesday, the consumer price index jumped 0.9% month-over-month in June. Year-on-year growth surged by 5.4%, marking the largest increase since August 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.9% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year, the largest increase since September 1991.</p><p>The Labor Department said used cars accounted for one-third of the CPI increase in June. The sharp rise in CPI was also largely due to price recoveries in categories related to the broader reopening of the economy, including hotel accommodations, car rentals, clothing, and airfares.</p><p>The Federal Reserve believes that these price increases will normalize over time, so inflationary pressures are only temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be1a9222227308463aa860babcc8368\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>San Francisco Fed President: Rising inflation is only a temporary phenomenon; bond-buying tapering may begin by the end of the year.</b></p><p>Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, believes that the largest increase in CPI since 2008 is likely just a temporary effect of the rapid economic recovery from the pandemic crisis.</p><p>Daly stated that she is \"optimistic\" about the economy's performance heading into the fall and believes it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to begin discussing tapering its monthly asset purchases now, with the tapering likely to begin at the end of this year or early next year.</p><p>In an interview on Tuesday, Daly said, \"It's appropriate to start talking about tapering asset purchases and reducing some of the easing measures we're providing to the economy. We'll still be in a very loose position, with low Federal Funds rate, but as the economy begins to stabilize, we don't need to keep all the tools.\"</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday showed that the CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month in June, the largest increase since 2008, and 5.4% year-on-year. Daly, who has voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, believes that used cars contributed more than a third of the CPI increase, indicating that the rise in inflation may be temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30972f443d50a6365b8e37354d896dce\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The U.S. budget deficit surged to $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of this fiscal year.</b></p><p>The U.S. budget deficit exceeded $2 trillion in the first three quarters of this fiscal year, and the federal government's full-year budget deficit may be close to last year's record level, demonstrating the continued impact of the Covid-19 crisis.</p><p>Data released by the Treasury Department on Tuesday showed a budget deficit of $174 billion in June. In comparison, the deficit in June 2020 was $864 billion, as the government implemented massive fiscal stimulus to curb the economic damage caused by the pandemic.</p><p>Although the monthly deficit is shrinking, Republicans in Washington are citing rising federal debt as a reason to oppose President Joe Biden's plans for the largest increase in social spending and addressing inequality in decades.</p><p>According to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the budget deficit will approach $3 trillion in fiscal year 2021 even without further spending. The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 was $3.13 trillion, the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio since World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5b4522b937bc8baee3a12d3aa8053b4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Author of \"Black Swan\": Bitcoin value is \"completely zero\" and insufficient to serve as a currency and hedging tool.</b></p><p>In a recent paper, Nassim Taleb, author of the best-selling book Black Swan, said Bitcoin failed to live up to its concept as an anarchic currency, a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven investment.</p><p>“There are few assets in financial history that are more vulnerable than Bitcoin,” Taleb said.</p><p>Taleb had expressed a more positive view of Bitcoin, but in his paper entitled “Bitcoin, Currency and Vulnerability,” published in late June, he called Bitcoin’s value “completely zero,” partly because it requires a sustained and substantial amount of interest to maintain.</p><p>In contrast, \"gold and other precious metals are essentially maintenance-free, do not degrade, and do not require maintenance to update their physical properties over time,\" he said.</p><p>Founded in 2008, Bitcoin has always been known for its volatility. Taleb pointed out that in March 2020, Bitcoin fell more than the stock market and recovered after “a large injection of liquidity,” which “is enough to prove that it is far from sufficient as a tail hedge against systemic risk.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e0da554e2da8d5eb64fcf3712c1bfd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Even if the Delta strain triggers a pandemic, its impact on the US economy will be relatively \"mild.\"</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists believe that thanks to widespread vaccination, a potential rebound in the pandemic triggered by the delta variant will not weaken U.S. consumer spending.</p><p>In a report to clients, Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Nicolae wrote that in some areas where COVID-19 cases have increased in recent weeks, there are few signs that restaurant reservations and broader consumer spending are slowing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Data from the UK, on the other side, also shows that the recent surge in cases in the country has had little impact on economic activity.</p><p>“If new cases and deaths reach higher levels, economic activity could decline sharply,” Nicolae said. \"But so far, the sensitivity of consumer activity in the United States and the United Kingdom has been low, which suggests that the economic impact of the delta strain outbreak will be mild.\"</p><p>COVID-19 cases have increased in many parts of the United States, mainly due to the more contagious delta strain. The regions with the largest increases are also those with the lowest vaccination rates.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that due to high vaccination rates, especially among the elderly, the risk of economic shutdowns and the reimposition of business restrictions is low. Despite the increase in cases, high-frequency data at the county and city levels, such as restaurant reservations, suggests that Americans are not overly concerned about the increase in infections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c444d95666172602a224b1eef836ef99\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The plan is to partner with Goldman Sachs to launch an installment payment service to benchmark against...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>\"Buy now, pay later\"</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company is developing a new service that allows consumers to repay Apple Pay spending in installments, in partnership with Affirm Holdings Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>Holdings Inc.'s \"buy now, pay later\" service competition.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the upcoming service, internally known as Apple Pay Later, will use Goldman Sachs as the lending bank for installment payments. Goldman Sachs has been a partner of Apple Credit Card since 2019, but people familiar with the matter said the new product is unrelated to Apple Credit Card and does not require the use of Apple Credit Card.</p><p>The \"buy now, Pay later\" service could help drive the popularity of Apple Pay and convince more users to use iPhones to Pay for goods instead of standard credit cards. Apple will receive a percentage of the revenue from Apple Pay transactions, bringing more revenue to the company's services business, which generates over $50 billion in annual revenue.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: Completely out of control! With CPI data exceeding expectations, is US inflation unstoppable?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: Completely out of control! With CPI data exceeding expectations, is US inflation unstoppable?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 05:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. US consumer prices surged again in June, exceeding economists' expectations.</b><b>2. San Francisco Fed President: Rising inflation is only a temporary phenomenon; bond-buying reduction may begin by the end of the year.</b><b>3. The U.S. budget deficit surged to $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of this fiscal year.</b><b>4. Author of *Black Swan*: Bitcoin value is \"completely zero\" and insufficient to serve as a currency and hedging tool.</b><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Even if the Delta strain triggers a pandemic, its impact on the US economy will be relatively \"mild.\"</b><b>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Plan joint<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Launching installment payment services to benchmark against<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>\"Buy now, pay later\"</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c32e4994b5a618b7f8962f4d749841\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. consumer prices surged again in June, exceeding economists' expectations.</b></p><p>U.S. consumer price increases in June exceeded the expectations of all economists surveyed, indicating that rising commodity and labor costs brought about by the reopening of the economy continue to exacerbate inflationary pressures.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Tuesday, the consumer price index jumped 0.9% month-over-month in June. Year-on-year growth surged by 5.4%, marking the largest increase since August 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core CPI also rose 0.9% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year, the largest increase since September 1991.</p><p>The Labor Department said used cars accounted for one-third of the CPI increase in June. The sharp rise in CPI was also largely due to price recoveries in categories related to the broader reopening of the economy, including hotel accommodations, car rentals, clothing, and airfares.</p><p>The Federal Reserve believes that these price increases will normalize over time, so inflationary pressures are only temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be1a9222227308463aa860babcc8368\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>San Francisco Fed President: Rising inflation is only a temporary phenomenon; bond-buying tapering may begin by the end of the year.</b></p><p>Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, believes that the largest increase in CPI since 2008 is likely just a temporary effect of the rapid economic recovery from the pandemic crisis.</p><p>Daly stated that she is \"optimistic\" about the economy's performance heading into the fall and believes it is appropriate for the Federal Reserve to begin discussing tapering its monthly asset purchases now, with the tapering likely to begin at the end of this year or early next year.</p><p>In an interview on Tuesday, Daly said, \"It's appropriate to start talking about tapering asset purchases and reducing some of the easing measures we're providing to the economy. We'll still be in a very loose position, with low Federal Funds rate, but as the economy begins to stabilize, we don't need to keep all the tools.\"</p><p>Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday showed that the CPI rose 0.9% month-on-month in June, the largest increase since 2008, and 5.4% year-on-year. Daly, who has voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, believes that used cars contributed more than a third of the CPI increase, indicating that the rise in inflation may be temporary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30972f443d50a6365b8e37354d896dce\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The U.S. budget deficit surged to $2.24 trillion in the first nine months of this fiscal year.</b></p><p>The U.S. budget deficit exceeded $2 trillion in the first three quarters of this fiscal year, and the federal government's full-year budget deficit may be close to last year's record level, demonstrating the continued impact of the Covid-19 crisis.</p><p>Data released by the Treasury Department on Tuesday showed a budget deficit of $174 billion in June. In comparison, the deficit in June 2020 was $864 billion, as the government implemented massive fiscal stimulus to curb the economic damage caused by the pandemic.</p><p>Although the monthly deficit is shrinking, Republicans in Washington are citing rising federal debt as a reason to oppose President Joe Biden's plans for the largest increase in social spending and addressing inequality in decades.</p><p>According to estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the budget deficit will approach $3 trillion in fiscal year 2021 even without further spending. The budget deficit for fiscal year 2020 was $3.13 trillion, the highest deficit-to-GDP ratio since World War II.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5b4522b937bc8baee3a12d3aa8053b4\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Author of \"Black Swan\": Bitcoin value is \"completely zero\" and insufficient to serve as a currency and hedging tool.</b></p><p>In a recent paper, Nassim Taleb, author of the best-selling book Black Swan, said Bitcoin failed to live up to its concept as an anarchic currency, a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven investment.</p><p>“There are few assets in financial history that are more vulnerable than Bitcoin,” Taleb said.</p><p>Taleb had expressed a more positive view of Bitcoin, but in his paper entitled “Bitcoin, Currency and Vulnerability,” published in late June, he called Bitcoin’s value “completely zero,” partly because it requires a sustained and substantial amount of interest to maintain.</p><p>In contrast, \"gold and other precious metals are essentially maintenance-free, do not degrade, and do not require maintenance to update their physical properties over time,\" he said.</p><p>Founded in 2008, Bitcoin has always been known for its volatility. Taleb pointed out that in March 2020, Bitcoin fell more than the stock market and recovered after “a large injection of liquidity,” which “is enough to prove that it is far from sufficient as a tail hedge against systemic risk.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30e0da554e2da8d5eb64fcf3712c1bfd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Even if the Delta strain triggers a pandemic, its impact on the US economy will be relatively \"mild.\"</b></p><p>Goldman Sachs economists believe that thanks to widespread vaccination, a potential rebound in the pandemic triggered by the delta variant will not weaken U.S. consumer spending.</p><p>In a report to clients, Goldman Sachs analyst Laura Nicolae wrote that in some areas where COVID-19 cases have increased in recent weeks, there are few signs that restaurant reservations and broader consumer spending are slowing.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600558\">Atlantic</a>Data from the UK, on the other side, also shows that the recent surge in cases in the country has had little impact on economic activity.</p><p>“If new cases and deaths reach higher levels, economic activity could decline sharply,” Nicolae said. \"But so far, the sensitivity of consumer activity in the United States and the United Kingdom has been low, which suggests that the economic impact of the delta strain outbreak will be mild.\"</p><p>COVID-19 cases have increased in many parts of the United States, mainly due to the more contagious delta strain. The regions with the largest increases are also those with the lowest vaccination rates.</p><p>Goldman Sachs believes that due to high vaccination rates, especially among the elderly, the risk of economic shutdowns and the reimposition of business restrictions is low. Despite the increase in cases, high-frequency data at the county and city levels, such as restaurant reservations, suggests that Americans are not overly concerned about the increase in infections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c444d95666172602a224b1eef836ef99\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The plan is to partner with Goldman Sachs to launch an installment payment service to benchmark against...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>\"Buy now, pay later\"</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The company is developing a new service that allows consumers to repay Apple Pay spending in installments, in partnership with Affirm Holdings Inc. and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>Holdings Inc.'s \"buy now, pay later\" service competition.</p><p>Sources familiar with the matter said the upcoming service, internally known as Apple Pay Later, will use Goldman Sachs as the lending bank for installment payments. Goldman Sachs has been a partner of Apple Credit Card since 2019, but people familiar with the matter said the new product is unrelated to Apple Credit Card and does not require the use of Apple Credit Card.</p><p>The \"buy now, Pay later\" service could help drive the popularity of Apple Pay and convince more users to use iPhones to Pay for goods instead of standard credit cards. Apple will receive a percentage of the revenue from Apple Pay transactions, bringing more revenue to the company's services business, which generates over $50 billion in annual revenue.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-14/doc-ikqcfnca6705157.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4153df93b18fe423c5d3fa744eb9ee74","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-07-14/doc-ikqcfnca6705157.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151607825","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、美国6月份消费者价格再次飙升 超过了经济学家的预期\n\n\n2、旧金山联储行长：通胀升高只是暂时现象 减码购债或于年末启动\n\n\n3、美国本财年前九个月预算赤字激增至2.24万亿美元\n\n\n4、《黑天鹅》作者：比特币价值“完全为零” 不足以作为货币和对冲工具\n\n\n5、高盛：Delta毒株即使引爆疫情 对美国经济影响也较“温和”\n\n\n6、苹果计划联合高盛推出分期付款服务 对标PayPal的“先买后付”\n\n\n美国6月份消费者价格再次飙升 超过了经济学家的预期\n6月份美国消费者价格涨幅超过了接受调查的所有经济学家的预期，表明经济重新开放带来的大宗商品和劳动力成本上升继续加剧通胀压力。\n根据美国劳工部周二发布的数据，6月份消费者价格指数环比跃升0.9%；同比则激增5.4%，创下2008年8月以来的最大涨幅。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成分，所谓的核心CPI也环比上涨0.9%，同比上升4.5%，为1991年9月以来最大涨幅。\n劳工部表示，二手车占到了6月份CPI升幅的三分之一。CPI大幅上涨在很大程度上也是由于与经济更广泛重新开放相关的类别出现价格回升，包括酒店住宿、汽车租赁、服装和机票等。\n美联储认为这些物价增长随着时间推移将会正常化，因此通胀压力只是暂时性的。\n\n旧金山联储行长：通胀升高只是暂时现象 减码购债或于年末启动\n旧金山联邦储备银行行长Mary Daly认为，CPI创下2008年以来最大升幅很可能只是经济迅速从疫情危机中复苏而带来的暂时性影响。\nDaly表示，她“看好”经济进入秋季的表现，并认为美联储现在开始讨论缩减每月资产购买规模是合适的，减码启动时间可能发生在今年年底或明年年初。\nDaly周二在接受采访时说：“现在开始谈论缩减资产购买及减少我们为经济提供的一些宽松措施是合适的。我们仍将处于非常宽松的位置，联邦基金利率较低，但随着经济开始站稳脚跟，我们没有必要保留所有工具”。\n美国劳工部周二发布数据显示 ，6月份CPI环比上升0.9%，创下自2008年以来最大增幅，同比涨幅5.4%。今年在联邦公开市场委员会有投票权的Daly认为，二手车贡献了CPI的三分之一以上涨幅，表明通胀上升可能是暂时的。\n\n美国本财年前九个月预算赤字激增至2.24万亿美元\n美国本财年前三季度的预算赤字超过2万亿美元，联邦政府全年预算赤字可能接近去年的创纪录水平，证明了Covid-19危机的持续影响。\n财政部周二公布的数据显示，6月份预算赤字1740亿美元。相比之下，2020年6月的赤字为8640亿美元，因政府实施大规模财政刺激来遏制疫情的经济破坏。\n虽然月度赤字在减少，但华盛顿的共和党人以联邦债务的增加为理由，反对总统乔·拜登数十年来最大规模增加的社会支出、解决不平等问题的计划。\n根据非党派的国会预算办公室的估计，2021财年即使没有进一步支出，预算赤字也将接近3万亿美元。2020财年的预算赤字是3.13万亿美元，赤字/GDP比例为二战以来最高。\n\n《黑天鹅》作者：比特币价值“完全为零” 不足以作为货币和对冲工具\n畅销书《黑天鹅》的作者纳西姆-塔勒布（Nassim Taleb）在最近的一篇论文中表示，比特币未能满足其作为无政府货币、对冲通胀的工具和避险投资的概念。\n“金融史上很少有资产比比特币更脆弱，”塔勒布说。\n塔勒布曾对比特币发表过更积极的看法，但他在6月下旬发表的题为“比特币、货币和脆弱性”的论文中称比特币的价值“完全为零”，部分原因是其需要持续大量的兴趣来维持。\n相比之下，“黄金和其他贵金属基本上无需维护，不会降解，也不需要维护以随着时间的推移更新其物理特性，”他说。\n创建于2008年的比特币一直以波动性著称。塔勒布指出，在2020年3月，比特币的跌幅超过了股市，并在“大量注入流动性后”随之复苏，这“足以证明其远不足以作为针对系统性风险的尾部对冲”。\n\n高盛：Delta毒株即使引爆疫情 对美国经济影响也较“温和”\n高盛经济学家认为，拜疫苗广泛接种所赐，以delta变异毒株引发的潜在疫情反弹不会削弱美国消费支出。\n高盛分析师Laura Nicolae在给客户的报告中写道，在近几周新冠病例增加的部分地区，几乎没有迹象表明餐厅预订和更广泛的消费者支出正在放缓 ，而大西洋彼岸英国的数据也显示，该国最近病例激增对经济活动影响甚微。\n“如果新增病例和死亡人数达到更高水平，经济活动可能会急剧下降，”Nicolae表示。 “但迄今为止，美国和英国消费者活动的敏感性较低，这说明delta毒株爆发疫情对经济影响将是温和的。”\n新冠病例在美国许多地区都出现增加，主要是传染性更强的delta毒株所致。增幅最大的也是疫苗接种率最低的地区。\n高盛认为，由于疫苗接种率很高，特别是在老年人群中，经济停摆和重新实施商业限制的风险较低。尽管病例有所增加，但县和市一级的高频数据（例如餐厅预订）表明美国人并不过分担心感染的增加。\n\n苹果计划联合高盛推出分期付款服务 对标PayPal的“先买后付”\n苹果公司正在开发一项新服务，让消费者可以分期偿还Apple Pay的支出，与Affirm Holdings Inc．和PayPal Holdings Inc．的“先买后付”服务竞争。\n知情人士说，即将推出的这项服务在内部称为Apple Pay Later，将使用高盛集团作为分期付款所需的贷款银行。高盛自2019年以来一直是苹果信用卡的合作伙伴，但知情人士说，新产品与苹果信用卡无关，不需要使用苹果信用卡。\n“先买后付”服务可能有助于推动Apple Pay的普及，并说服更多用户使用iPhone来支付商品，而不是标准信用卡。苹果会从Apple Pay交易中获得一定比例的分成，为该公司年收入超500亿美元的服务业务带来更多收入。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
