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CKM72

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2023-02-20

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@StickyRice:Moderna Omicron booster cleared in Canada for children and adolescents Moderna $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ announced that Health Canada authorized its COVID-19 booster shot targeting the Omicron subvariant BA.1 for use in those aged 6 – 17. Accordingly, the messenger-RNA-based bivalent vaccine, mRNA-1273.214, will be allowed as a booster shot in Canada for children and adolescents who have completed a primary series with any authorized COVID shot or a previous booster. The authorization limits mRNA-1273.214 dosage to 25 μg for children aged 6 – 11 years and 50 μg booster dose for adolescents aged 12 -17 years. Canada has previously authorized mRNA-1273.214 and the company’s BA.4/ BA.5 targeting Omicron booster mRNA.1

2022-11-25

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Latest Memo From Howard Marks: What Really Matters?

2022-11-25

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Palantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble

2022-11-18

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After-Hours Movers: Gap, Applied Materials, Ross Stores and More

2022-11-18

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Applied Materials Forecasts Strong Q1 Revenue on Easing Supply Chain Woes

2022-11-18

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US STOCKS-Wall Street Drops As Hawkish Fed Official Comments Weigh

2022-11-17

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Grab Lifts Revenue Outlook on Rideshare, Food Delivery Strength

2022-10-13

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$bear

2022-09-26

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@meurasian77:I just feel that Tiger could offer more coins for the daily rewards so that it will be easier for us userto redeem for stock vouchers. Also hope that Tiger could bring back the sending of coins to authors of meaningful posts. Also hope that Tiger could have more items for users to redeem gifts. Physical premiums like t-shirts, pens, caps , calculators, wireless keyboards and others could be offered for redemption, not just stock vouchers. Lastly also hope that Tiger could improvise on the Tiger membership program. It is super tough to promote to the next level. I have been stuck on level 5 for what it seems to me like forever.

2022-08-24

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3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split

2022-07-22

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Shopify: What’S on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In

2022-07-22

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SPY: Will The Market Swoon Ever End?

2022-07-22

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Palantir Q2'22 Preview: What Investors Can Expect

2022-07-05

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@Tantiad:Kyiv lays out $750bn ‘recovery plan’

2022-01-07

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Vaccine Stocks Slid in Morning Trading

2022-01-05

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3 Wildly Undervalued Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade

2022-01-04

9o

3 Stocks to Avoid This Week

2022-01-04

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December jobs report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, CES: What to know this week

2022-01-03

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Li Auto Says Delivered 14,087 Li Ones In December 2021

2022-01-02

Good

XPeng Says 16,000 Vehicles Were Delivered In Dec, A 181% Increase Y-O-Y

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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Omicron booster cleared in Canada for children and adolescents Moderna <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>&nbsp;announced that Health Canada authorized its COVID-19 booster shot targeting the Omicron subvariant BA.1 for use in those aged 6 – 17. 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Accordingly, the messenger-RNA-based bivalent vaccine, mRNA-1273.214, will be allowed as a booster shot in Canada for children and adolescents who have completed a primary series with any authorized COVID shot or a previous booster. The authorization limits mRNA-1273.214 dosage to 25 μg for children aged 6 – 11 years and 50 μg booster dose for adolescents aged 12 -17 years. Canada has previously authorized mRNA-1273.214 and the company’s BA.4/ BA.5 targeting Omicron booster mRNA.1","text":"Moderna Omicron booster cleared in Canada for children and adolescents Moderna $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ announced that Health Canada authorized its COVID-19 booster shot targeting the Omicron subvariant BA.1 for use in those aged 6 – 17. Accordingly, the messenger-RNA-based bivalent vaccine, mRNA-1273.214, will be allowed as a booster shot in Canada for children and adolescents who have completed a primary series with any authorized COVID shot or a previous booster. The authorization limits mRNA-1273.214 dosage to 25 μg for children aged 6 – 11 years and 50 μg booster dose for adolescents aged 12 -17 years. Canada has previously authorized mRNA-1273.214 and the company’s BA.4/ BA.5 targeting Omicron booster mRNA.1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957986057","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968797944,"gmtCreate":1669328433589,"gmtModify":1676538182447,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968797944","repostId":"2285384020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285384020","pubTimestamp":1669302016,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285384020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-24 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Latest Memo From Howard Marks: What Really Matters?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285384020","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe vast majority of investors can’t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how th","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The vast majority of investors can’t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen.</li><li>Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they’re for trading, not for owning.</li><li>Most individual investors and anyone who understands the limitations regarding outperformance would probably be best off holding index funds over the long run.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b128f2533a162219e4fb760585c5b07f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>We Are</span></p><p>I&#39;ve gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year - plus some recent musings and conversations - to form the subject of this memo: what really matters or should matter for investors. I&#39;ll start by examining a number of things that I think don&#39;t matter.</p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: Short-Term Events</h2><p>In <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i> (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in <i>I Beg to Differ</i> (July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree&#39;s June 21 conference in London: How bad will inflation get? How much will the Fed raise interest rates to fight it? Will those increases cause a recession? How bad and for how long? The bottom line, I told the attendees, was that these things all relate to the short term, and this is what I know about the short term:</p><ul><li><p>Most investors can&#39;t do a superior job of predicting short-term phenomena like these.</p></li><li><p>Thus, they shouldn&#39;t put much stock in opinions on these subjects (theirs or those of others).</p></li><li><p>They&#39;re unlikely to make major changes in their portfolios in response to these opinions.</p></li><li><p>The changes they do make are unlikely to be consistently right.</p></li><li><p>Thus, these aren&#39;t the things that matter.</p></li></ul><p>Consider an example. In response to the first tremors of the Global Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve began to cut the fed funds rate in 3Q2007. They then lowered it to zero around the end of 2008 and left it there for seven years. In late 2015, virtually the only question I got was &#34;When will the first rate increase occur?&#34; My answer was always the same: &#34;Why do you care? If I say &#39;February,&#39; what will you do? And if I later change my mind and say &#39;May,&#39; what will you do differently? If everyone knows rates are about to rise, what difference does it make which month the process starts?&#34; No one ever offered a convincing answer. Investors probably think asking such questions is part of behaving professionally, but I doubt they could explain why.</p><p>The vast majority of investors can&#39;t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen. In <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i>, I wrote at length about the way unforeseen events make a hash of economic and market forecasts. In summary, most forecasts are extrapolations, and most of the time things don&#39;t change, so extrapolations are usually correct, but not particularly profitable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of deviations from trends can be very profitable, but they&#39;re hard to make and hard to act on. These are some of the reasons why most people can&#39;t predict the future well enough to repeatably produce superior performance.</p><p>Why is doing this so hard? Don&#39;t most of us know what events are likely to transpire? Can&#39;t we just buy the securities of the companies that are most likely to benefit from those events? In the long run, maybe, but I want to turn to a theme that Bruce Karsh has been emphasizing lately, regarding a major reason why it&#39;s particularly challenging to profit from a short-term focus: <b>It&#39;s verydifficult to know which expectations regarding events are already incorporated in security prices.</b></p><p>One of the critical mistakes people are guilty of - we see it all the time in the media - is believing that changes in security prices are the result of events: that favorable events lead to rising prices and negative events lead to falling prices. I think that&#39;s what most people believe - especially first-level thinkers - but that&#39;s not right. <b>Security prices are determined by events and how investors react to those events, which is largely a function of how the events stack up against investors&#39; expectations.</b></p><p>How can we explain a company that reports higher earnings, only to see its stock price drop? The answer, of course, is that the reported improvement fell short of expectations and thus disappointed investors. So, at the most elementary level, it&#39;s not whether the event is simply positive or not, but how the event compares with what was expected.</p><p>In my earliest working years, I used to spend a few minutes each day looking over the earnings reports printed in <i>The Wall Street Journal</i>. But after a while, it dawned on me that since I didn&#39;t know what numbers had been expected, I had no idea whether an announcement from a company I didn&#39;t follow was good news or bad.</p><p>Investors can become experts regarding a few companies and their securities, but no one is likely to know enough about macro events to (A) be able to understand the macro expectations that underlie the prices of securities, (B) anticipate the broad events, and (C) predict how those securities will react. Where can a prospective buyer look to find out what the investors who set securities prices already anticipate in terms of inflation, GDP, or unemployment? Inferences regarding expectations can sometimes be drawn from asset prices, but the inferred levels often aren&#39;t proved correct when the actual results come in.</p><p>Further, in the short term, security prices are highly susceptible to random and exogenous events that can swamp the impact of fundamental events. <b>Macro events and the ups and downs of companies&#39; near-term fortunes are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of - or relevant to - companies&#39; long-term prospects. So little attention should be paid to them.</b> For example, companies often deliberately reduce current earnings by investing in the future of their businesses; thus, low reported earnings can imply high future earnings, not continued low earnings. To know the difference, you have to have an in-depth understanding of the company.</p><p>No one should be fooled into thinking security pricing is a dependable process that accurately follows a set of rules. Events are unpredictable; they can be altered by unpredictable influences, and investors&#39; reactions to the events that occur are unpredictable. Due to the presence of so much uncertainty, most investors are unable to improve their results by focusing on the short term.</p><p>It&#39;s clear from observation that security prices fluctuate much more than economic output or company profits. <b>What accounts for this? It must be the fact that, in the short term, the ups and downs of prices are influenced far more by swings in investor psychology than by changes in companies&#39; long-term prospects. Because swings in psychology matter more in the near term than changes in fundamentals - and are so hard to predict - most short-term trading is a waste of time... or worse.</b></p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: The Trading Mentality</h2><p>Over the years, my memos have often included some of my father&#39;s jokes from the 1950s, based on my strong belief that humor often reflects truths about the human condition. Given its relevance here, I&#39;m going to devote a bit of space to a joke I&#39;ve shared before:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af510c5d038ecaeaa793f3d6b442a86a\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I include this old joke because I believe most people treat stocks and bonds like something to trade, not something to own.</p><p><b>If you ask Warren Buffett to describe the foundation of his approach to investing, he&#39;ll probably start by insisting that stocks should be thought of as ownership interests in companies.</b> Most people don&#39;t start companies with the goal of selling them in the short term, but rather they seek to operate them, enjoy profitability, and expand the business. Of course, founders do these things to ultimately make money, but they&#39;re likely to view the money as the byproduct of having run a successful business. Buffett says people who buy stocks should think of themselves as partners of owners with whom they share goals.</p><p>But I think that&#39;s rarely the case. <b>Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they&#39;re for trading, not for owning.</b> This means they abandon the owner mentality and instead act like gamblers or speculators who bet on stock price moves. The results are often unpleasant.</p><p>The DALBAR Institute 2012 study showed that investors receive three percentage points less per year than the S&amp;P 500 generated from 1992 to 2012, and the average holding period for a typical investor is six months. Six Months!! When you hold a stock for less than a year, you are not using the stock market to acquire business ownership positions and participate in the growth of that business. Instead, you are just guessing at short-term news and expectations, and your returns are based on how other people react to that news information. In aggregate, that kind of attitude gets you three percentage points less per year than you&#39;d get from doing nothing at all beyond making the initial investment in the index fund of the S&amp;P 500. (&#34;Fidelity&#39;s Best Investors Are Dead,&#34; <i>The Conservative Income Investor</i>, April 8, 2020)</p><p>To me, buying for a short-term trade equates to forgetting about your sports team&#39;s chances of winning the championship and instead betting on who&#39;s going to succeed in the next play, period, or inning.</p><p>Let&#39;s think about the logic. You buy a stock because you think it&#39;s worth more than you have to pay for it, whereas the seller considers it fully priced. Someday, if things go well, it&#39;ll become fully priced, in your opinion, meaning you&#39;ll sell it. The person you sell it to, however, will buy it because he thinks it&#39;s worth still more. We used to talk about this process as being reliant on the Greater Fool Theory: No matter what price I pay for a stock, there will always be someone who will buy it from me for more, despite the fact that I&#39;m selling because I&#39;ve concluded that it has reached full value.</p><p>Every buyer is motivated by the belief that the stock will eventually be worth more than today&#39;s price (a view the seller presumably doesn&#39;t share). The key question is what type of thinking underlies these purchases. <b>Are the buyers buying because this is a company they&#39;d like to own a piece of for years? Or are they merely betting that the price will go up?</b> The transactions may look the same from the outside, but I wonder about the thought process and thus the soundness of the logic.</p><p><b>Each time a stock is traded, one side is wrong and one is right. But if what you&#39;re doing is betting on trends in popularity, and thus the direction of price moves over the next month, quarter, or year, is it realistic to believe you&#39;ll be right more often than the person on the other side of the trade?</b> Maybe the decline of active management can be attributed to the many active managers who placed bets on the direction of stock prices in the short term, instead of picking companies they wanted to own part of for years. It&#39;s all a matter of the underlying mentality.</p><p>I had a long debate on this topic with my father back in 1969, when I lived with him during my first months at First National City Bank. (It&#39;s amazing for me to think back to those days; he was so much younger than I am today.) I told him I thought buying a stock should be motivated by something other than the hope that the price would rise, and I suggested this might be the expectation that dividends would increase over time. He countered that no one buys stocks for the dividends - they buy because they think the price will go up. But what would trigger the rise?</p><p>Wanting to own a business for its commercial merit and long-term earnings potential is a good reason to be a stockholder, and if these expectations are borne out, a good reason to believe the stock price will rise. In the absence of that, buying in the hope of appreciation merely amounts to trying to guess which industries and companies investors will favor in the future. Ben Graham famously said, &#34;In the short run, a market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.&#34; <b>While none of this is easy, as Charlie Munger once told me, carefully weighing long-term merit should produce better results than trying to guess at short-term swings in popularity.</b></p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: Short-Term Performance</h2><p>Given the possible contributors to short-term investment performance, reported results can present a highly misleading picture, and here I&#39;m talking mostly about superior gains in good times. I feel there are three ingredients for success during good times - aggressiveness, timing, and skill - and if you have enough aggressiveness at the right time, you don&#39;t need that much skill. We all know that in good times, the highest returns often go to the person whose portfolio incorporates the most risk, beta, and correlation. Having such a portfolio isn&#39;t a mark of distinction or insight if the investor is a perma-bull who&#39;s always positioned aggressively. Finally, random events can have an overwhelming impact on returns - in either direction - in a given quarter or year.</p><p>One of the recurring themes in my memos is the idea that the quality of a decision cannot be determined by the outcome alone. Decisions often lead to negative outcomes even when they&#39;re well-reasoned and based on all the available information. On the other hand, we all know people - even occasionally ourselves - who&#39;ve been right for the wrong reason. Hidden information and random developments can frustrate even the best thinkers&#39; decisions. (However, when outcomes are considered over a long period of time and a large number of trials, the better decision maker is overwhelmingly likely to have a higher proportion of successes.)</p><p><b>Obviously, no one should attach much significance to returns in one quarter or year. Investment performance is simply one result drawn from the full range of returns that could have materialized, and in the short term, it can be heavily influenced by random events. Thus, a single quarter&#39;s return is likely to be a very weak indicator of an investor&#39;s ability, if that.</b> Deciding whether a manager has a special skill - or whether an asset allocation is appropriate for the long run - on the basis of one quarter or year is like forming an opinion of a baseball player on the basis of one trip to the plate, or of a racehorse based on one race.</p><p>We know short-term performance doesn&#39;t matter much. And yet, most of the investment committees I&#39;ve sat on have had the latest quarter&#39;s performance as the first item on the agenda and devoted a meaningful portion of each meeting to it. The discussion is usually extensive, but it rarely leads to significant action. So why do we keep doing it? For the same reasons investors pay attention to forecasting, as described in <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i>: &#34;everyone does it,&#34; and &#34;it would be irresponsible not to.&#34;</p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: Volatility</h2><p>I haven&#39;t written much about volatility, other than to say I strongly disagree with people who consider it the definition or essence of risk. I&#39;ve described my belief that the academics who developed the Chicago School theory of investment in the early 1960s (A) wanted to examine the relationship between investment returns and risk, (B) needed a number quantifying risk that they could put into their calculations, and (C) undoubtedly chose volatility as a proxy for risk for the simple reason that it was the only quantifiable metric available. I define risk as the probability of a bad outcome, and volatility is, at best, an indicator of the presence of risk. But volatility is not risk. That&#39;s all I&#39;m going to say on that subject.</p><p><b>What I want to talk about here is the extent to which thinking and caring about volatility has warped the investing world over the 50-plus years that I&#39;ve been in it.</b> It was a great advantage for me to have attended the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago in the late &#39;60s and to have been part of one of the very first classes that taught new theories. I learned about the efficient market hypothesis, the capital asset pricing model, the random walk, the importance of risk aversion, and the role of volatility as risk. While volatility wasn&#39;t a topic of conversation when I got into the real world of investing in 1969, the practice soon caught up with the theory.</p><p>In particular, the Sharpe ratio was adopted as the measure of risk-adjusted return. It&#39;s the ratio of a portfolio&#39;s excess return (the part of its return that exceeds the yield on T-bills) to its volatility. The more return per unit of volatility, the higher the risk-adjusted return. Risk adjustment is an essential concept, and returns should absolutely be evaluated relative to the risk that was taken to achieve them. Everyone cites Sharpe ratios, including Oaktree, because it&#39;s the only quantitative tool available for the job. (If investors, consultants, and clients didn&#39;t use the Sharpe ratio, they&#39;d have no metric at all, and if they tried to substitute fundamental riskiness for volatility in their assessments, they&#39;d find that there&#39;s no way to quantify it.) <b>The Sharpe ratio may hint at risk-adjusted performance in the same way that volatility hints at risk, but since volatility isn&#39;t risk, the Sharpe ratio is a very imperfect measure.</b></p><p>Take, for example, one of the asset classes I started working with in 1978: high-yield bonds. At Oaktree, we think moderately-above-benchmark returns can be produced with substantially less risk than the benchmark, and this shows up in superior Sharpe ratios. But the real risk in high-yield bonds - the one we care about and have a history of reducing - is the risk of default. We don&#39;t much care about reducing volatility, and we don&#39;t take conscious steps to do so. We believe high Sharpe ratios can result from - and perhaps are correlated with - the actions we take to reduce defaults.</p><p><b>Volatility is particularly irrelevant in our of fixed income or &#34;credit.&#34;</b> Bonds, notes, and loans represent contractual promises of periodic interest and repayment at maturity. <b>Most of the time when you buy a bond with an 8% yield, you&#39;ll basically get the 8% yield over its life, regardless of whether the bond price goes up or down in the interim.</b> I say &#34;basically&#34; because, if the price falls, you&#39;ll have the opportunity to reinvest the interest payments at yields above 8%, so your holding-period return will creep up. Thus, the downward price volatility that so many revile is actually a good thing - as long as it doesn&#39;t presage defaults. (Note that, as indicated in this paragraph, &#34;volatility&#34; is often a misnomer. Strategists and the media often warn that &#34;there may be volatility ahead.&#34; What they really mean is &#34;there may be price declines ahead.&#34; No one worries about, or minds experiencing, volatility to the upside.)</p><p><b>It&#39;s essential to recognize that protection from volatility generally isn&#39;t a free good. Reducing volatility for its own sake is a sub-optimizing strategy: It should be presumed that favoring lower-volatility assets and approaches will - all things being equal - lead to lower returns.</b> Only managers with superior skill, or alpha (see page 11), will be able to overcome this negative presumption and reduce return less than they reduce volatility.</p><p>Nevertheless, since many clients, bosses, and other constituents are uncomfortable with radical ups and downs (well, mostly with downs), asset managers often take steps to reduce volatility. Consider what happened after institutional investors began to pile into hedge funds following the three-year decline of stocks brought on by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000. (This was the first three-year decline since 1939-41.) Hedge funds - previously members of a cottage industry where most funds had a few hundred million dollars of capital from wealthy individuals - did much better than stocks in the downdraft. Institutions were attracted to these funds&#39; low volatility, and thus invested billions in them.</p><p>The average hedge fund delivered the stability the institutions wanted. But somewhere in the shuffle, the idea of earning high returns with low volatility got lost. Instead, hedge fund managers pursued low volatility as a goal in itself, since they knew it was what the institutions were after. As a result, over roughly the last 18 years, the average hedge fund delivered the low volatility that was desired, but it was accompanied by modest single-digit returns. No miracle there.</p><p><b>Why do I recite all this? Because volatility is just a temporary phenomenon (assuming you survive it financially), and most investors shouldn&#39;t attach as much importance to it as they seem to.</b> As I wrote in <i>I Beg to Differ</i>, many investors have the luxury of being able to focus exclusively on the long term... if they will take advantage of it. Volatility should be less of a concern for investors:</p><ul><li>whose entities are long-lived, like life insurance companies, endowments, and pension funds;</li><li>whose capital isn&#39;t subject to lump-sum withdrawal;</li><li>whose essential activities won&#39;t be jeopardized by downward fluctuations;</li><li>who don&#39;t have to worry about being forced into mistakes by their constituents; and</li><li>who hasn&#39;t levered up with debt that might have to be repaid in the short run?</li></ul><p>Most investors lack some of these things, and few have them all. But to the extent these characteristics are present, investors should take advantage of their ability to withstand volatility, since many investments with the potential for high returns might be susceptible to substantial fluctuations.</p><p><b>Warren Buffett always puts it best, and on this topic, he usefully said, &#34;We prefer a lumpy 15% return to a smooth 12% return.&#34; Investors who&#39;d rather have the reverse - who find a smooth 12% preferable to a lumpy 15% - should ask themselves whether their aversion to volatility is mostly financial or mostly emotional.</b></p><p>Of course, the choices made by employees, investment committee members, and hired investment managers may have to reflect real-world considerations. People in charge of institutional portfolios can have valid reasons for avoiding ups and downs that their organizations or clients might be able to stomach in financial terms but would still find unpleasant. All anyone can do is the best they can under their particular circumstances. <b>But my bottom line is this: In many cases, people accord volatility far more important than they should.</b></p><h2>An Aside</h2><p>While I&#39;m on the subject of volatility, I want to turn to an area that hasn&#39;t reported much of it of late: private investment funds. The first nine months of 2022 constituted one of the worst periods on record for both stocks and bonds. Yet, many private equities and private debt funds are reporting only small losses for the year to date. I&#39;m often asked what this means, and whether it reflects reality.</p><p>Maybe the performance of private funds is being reported accurately. (I know we believe ours is.) But I recently came across an interesting <i>Financial Times</i> article provocatively titled, &#34;The volatility laundering, return manipulation and &#39;phoney happiness&#39; of private equity,&#34; by Robin Wigglesworth. Here&#39;s some of its content:</p><p>The widening performance gap between public and private markets is a huge topic these days. Investors have often seen as the gormless [foolish] dupes falling for the &#34;return manipulation&#34; of cunning private equity tycoons. But what if they are co-conspirators?...</p><p>That&#39;s what a new paper from three academics at the University of Florida argues. Based on nearly two decades worth of private equity real estate funds data, Blake Jackson, David Ling, and Andy Naranjo conclude that &#34;private equity fund managers manipulate returns to cater to their investors.&#34;</p><p><b>...Jackson, Ling, and Naranjo&#39;s... central conclusion is that &#34;GPs do not appear to manipulate interim returns to fool their LPs, but rather because their LPs want them to do so&#34;.</b></p><p>Similar to the idea that banks design financial products to cater to yield-seeking investors or firms issue dividends to cater to investor demand for dividend payments, we argue that PE fund managers boost interim performance reports to cater to some investors&#39; demand for manipulated returns.</p><p>...<b>If a GP boosts or smooths returns,...investment managers within LP organizations can report artificially higher Sharpe ratios, alphas, and top-line returns, such as IRRs, to their trustees or other overseers.</b> In doing so, these investment managers, whose median tenure of four years often expires years before the ultimate returns of a PE fund are realized, might improve their internal job security or potential labor market outcomes...</p><p>This probably helps explain why private equity firms on average actually reported gains of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and only some modest marks downwards since then, despite global equities losing 22 percent of their value this year. (November 2, 2022. Emphasis added)</p><p>If both GPs and LPs are happy with returns that seem unusually good, might the result be suspect? Is the performance of private assets being stated accurately? Is the low volatility being reported genuine? If the current business climate is challenging, shouldn&#39;t that affect the prices of public and private investments alike?</p><p>But there&#39;s another series of relevant questions: Mightn&#39;t it be fair for GPs to decline to mark down private investments in companies that have experienced short-term weakness but whose long-term prospects remain bright? And while private investments might not have been marked down enough this year, isn&#39;t it true that the prices of public securities are more volatile than they should be, overstating the changes in long-term value? I certainly think public security prices reflect psychological swings that are often excessive. Should the prices of private investments emulate this?</p><p>As with most things, any inaccuracy in reporting will eventually come to light. Eventually, private debt will mature, and private equity holdings will have to be sold. If the returns being reported this year understate the real declines in value, performance from here on out will likely look surprisingly poor. And I&#39;m sure this will lead plenty of academics (and maybe a few regulators) to question whether the pricing of private investments in 2022 was too high. We&#39;ll see.</p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: Hyper-Activity</h2><p>In <i>Selling Out</i> (January 2022), I expressed my strong view that most investors trade too much. Since it&#39;s hard to make multiple consecutive decisions correctly, and trading costs money and is often likely to result from an investor&#39;s emotional swings, it&#39;s better to do less of it.</p><p><b>When I was a boy, there was a popular saying: Don&#39;t just sit there; do something. But for investing, I&#39;d invert it: Don&#39;t just do something; sit there.</b> Develop the mindset that you don&#39;t make money on what you buy and sell; you make money (hopefully) on what you hold. Think more. Trade less. Make fewer, but more consequential, trades. Over-diversification reduces the importance of each trade; thus it can allow investors to take actions without adequate investigation or great conviction. I think most portfolios are over-diversified and over-traded.</p><p>I devoted a good portion of <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i> and <i>Selling Out</i> to warn investors about how difficult it is to improve returns through short-term market timing, and I quoted the great investor Bill Miller: &#34;Time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market.&#34;</p><p>On this subject, I was recently asked by a consultant, &#34;If you don&#39;t try to get in and out of the market as appropriate, how do you earn your fees?&#34; My answer was that it&#39;s our job to assemble portfolios that will perform well over the long run, and market timing is unlikely to add to the outcome unless it can be done well, which I&#39;m not convinced is usually the case. &#34;What about you?&#34; I asked. &#34;If you help a client establish an appropriate asset allocation, does it follow that you&#39;re not earning your fees if you don&#39;t change it a month later?&#34;</p><p>Likewise, the day <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i> came out, an old friend asked me, &#34;But you have to take a position [on short-run events], don&#39;t you?&#34; My answer, predictably, was, &#34;No, not if you don&#39;t have an advantage when doing so. Why would you bet on the outcome of a coin toss, especially if it costs money to play?&#34;</p><p>I&#39;ll end my discussion of this subject with a wonderful citation:</p><p>A news item that has gotten a lot of attention recently concerned an internal performance review of Fidelity accounts to determine which type of investors received the best returns between 2003 and 2013. The customer account audit revealed that the best investors were either dead or inactive - the people who switched jobs and &#34;forgot&#34; about an old 401(K) leaving the current options in place, or the people who died and the assets were frozen while the estate handled the assets. (&#34;Fidelity&#39;s Best Investors Are Dead,&#34; <i>The Conservative Income Investor</i>, April 8, 2020)</p><p>Since the journalists have been unable to find the Fidelity study, and apparently so has Fidelity, the story is probably apocryphal. But I still like the idea, since the conclusion is so much in line with my thinking. <b>I&#39;m not saying it&#39;s worth dying to improve investment performance, but it might be a good idea for investors to simulate that condition by sitting on their hands.</b></p><h2>So What Does Matter?</h2><p><b>What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or ten years (or more) and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs.</b> Some people say the long run is a series of short runs, and if you get those right, you&#39;ll enjoy success in the long run. They might think the route to success consists of trading often in order to capitalize on relative value assessments, predictions regarding swings in popularity, and forecasts of macro events. I obviously do not.</p><p>Most individual investors and anyone who understands the limitations regarding outperformance would probably be best off holding index funds over the long run. Investment professionals and others who feel they need or want to engage in active management might benefit from the following suggestions.</p><p>I think most people would be more successful if they focused less on the short-run or macro trends and instead worked hard to gain superior insight concerning the outlook for fundamentals over multi-year periods in the future. They should:</p><ul><li><p>study companies and securities, assessing things such as their earnings potential;</p></li><li><p>buy the ones that can be purchased at attractive prices relative to their potential;</p></li><li><p>hold onto them as long as the company&#39;s earnings outlook and the attractiveness of the price remain intact; and</p></li><li><p>make changes only when those things can&#39;t be reconfirmed, or when something better comes along.</p></li></ul><p><b>At the London conference mentioned on page one - while I was discussing (and discouraging) paying attention to the short run - I said that at Oaktree we consider it our job to (A) buy debt that will be serviced as promised (or will return the same amount or more if not) and (B) invest in companies that will become more valuable over time. I&#39;ll stick with that.</b></p><p>The above description of the investor&#39;s job is quite simple... some might say simplistic. And it is. Setting out the goals and the process in broad terms is easy. The hard part is executing better than most people: That&#39;s the only route to market-beating performance. <b>Since average decision-making is reflected in security prices and produces average performance, superior results have to be based on superior insight.</b> But I can&#39;t tell you how to do these things better than the average investor.</p><p>There&#39;s a lot more to the process, and I&#39;m going to outline some of what I think are key elements to remember. You&#39;ll recognize recurring themes here, from other memos, and from earlier pages in this one, but I make no apology for dwelling on things that are important:</p><ul><li><p>Forget the short run - only the long run matters. Think of securities as interests in companies, not trading cards.</p></li><li><p>Decide whether you believe in market efficiency. If so, is your market sufficiently inefficient to permit outperformance, and are you up to the task of exploiting it?</p></li><li><p>Decide whether your approach will lean more toward aggressiveness or defensiveness. Will you try to find more and bigger winners or focus on avoiding losers, or both? Will you try to make more on the way up or lose less on the down, or both? (Hint: &#34;both&#34; is much harder to achieve than one or the other.) In general, people&#39;s investment styles should fit their personalities.</p></li><li><p>Think about what your normal risk posture should be - your normal balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness - based on your or your clients&#39; financial position, needs, aspirations, and ability to live with fluctuations. Consider whether you&#39;ll vary your balance depending on what happens in the market.</p></li><li><p>Adopt a healthy attitude toward return and risk. Understand that &#34;the more return potential, the better&#34; can be a dangerous rule to follow given that increased return potential is usually accompanied by increased risk. On the other hand, completely avoiding risk usually leads to avoiding return as well.</p></li><li><p>Insist on an adequate margin of safety, or the ability to weather periods when things go less well than you expected.</p></li><li><p>Stop trying to predict the macro; study the micro like mad in order to know your subject better than others. Understand that you can expect to succeed only if you have a knowledge advantage, and be realistic about whether you have it or not. Recognize that trying harder isn&#39;t enough. Accept my son Andrew&#39;s view that merely possessing &#34;readily available quantitative information regarding the present&#34; won&#39;t give you above-average results, since everyone else has it.</p></li><li><p>Recognize that psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings. Profit if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.</p></li><li><p>Study conditions in the investment environment - especially investor behavior - and consider where things stand in terms of the cycle. Understand that where the market stands in its cycle will strongly influence whether the odds are in your favor or against you.</p></li><li><p>Buy debt when you like the yield, not for trading purposes. In other words, buy 9% bonds if you think the yield compensates you for the risk, and you&#39;ll be happy with 9%. Don&#39;t buy 9% bonds expecting to make 11% thanks to price appreciation resulting from declining interest rates.</p></li></ul><p><b>Of critical importance, equity investors should make their primary goals (A) participating in the secular growth of economies and companies and (B) benefiting from the wonder of compounding.</b> Think about the 10.5% yearly return of the S&amp;P 500 Index (or its predecessors) since 1926 and the fact that this would have turned $1 into over $13,000 by now, even though the period witnessed 16 recessions, one Great Depression, several wars, one World War, a global pandemic, and many instances of geopolitical turmoil.</p><p><b>Think of participating in the long-term performance of the average as the main event and the active efforts to improve on it as &#34;embroidery around the edges.&#34;</b> This might be the reverse of most active investors&#39; attitudes. Improving results through over- and underweighting, short-term trading, market timing, and other active measures aren&#39;t easy. <b>Believing you can do these things successfully requires the assumption that you&#39;re smarter than a bunch of very smart people. Think twice before proceeding, as the requirements for success are high (see below).</b></p><p>Don&#39;t mess it up by over-trading. Think of buying and selling as an expense item, not a profit center. I love the idea of the automated factory of the future, with one man and one dog; The dog&#39;s job is to keep the man from touching the machinery, and the man&#39;s job is to feed the dog. <b>Investors should find a way to keep their hands off their portfolios most of the time.</b></p><h2>A Special Word in Closing: Asymmetry</h2><p><b>&#34;Asymmetry&#34; is a concept I&#39;ve been conscious of for decades and consider more important with every passing year. It&#39;s my word for the essence of investment excellence and a standard against which investors should be measured.</b></p><p>First, some definitions:</p><ul><li><p>I&#39;m going to talk below about whether an investor has &#34;alpha.&#34; Alpha is technically defined as a return in excess of the benchmark return, but I prefer to think of it as a superior investing skill. It&#39;s the ability to find and exploit inefficiencies when they&#39;re present.</p></li><li><p>Inefficiencies - mispricings or mistakes - represent instances when an asset&#39;s price diverges from its fair value. These divergences can show up as bargains or the opposite, over-pricings.</p></li><li><p>Bargains will dependably perform better than other investments over time after adjustment for their riskiness. Over-pricings will do the opposite.</p></li><li><p>&#34;Beta&#34; is an investor&#39;s or a portfolio&#39;s relative volatility, also described as relative sensitivity or systematic risk.</p></li></ul><p>People who believe in the efficient market hypothesis think of a portfolio&#39;s return as the product of the market&#39;s return multiplied by the portfolio&#39;s beta. This is all it takes to explain results since there are no mispricings to take advantage of in an efficient market (and so no such thing as alpha). <b>Thus, alpha is a skill that enables an investor to produce performance better than that which is explained purely by market return and beta.</b> Another way to say this is that having alpha allows an investor to enjoy profit potential that is disproportionate to loss potential: asymmetry. In my view, asymmetry is present when an investor can repeatedly do some or all of the following:</p><ul><li><p>make more money in good markets than he gives back in bad markets,</p></li><li><p>have more winners than losers,</p></li><li><p>make more money on his winners than he loses on his losers,</p></li><li><p>do well when his aggressive or defensive bias proves timely but not badly when it doesn&#39;t,</p></li><li><p>do well when his sector or strategy is in favor but not badly when it isn&#39;t, and</p></li><li><p>construct portfolios so that most of the surprises are on the upside.</p></li></ul><p>For example, most of us have an inherent bias toward either aggressiveness or defensiveness. For this reason, it doesn&#39;t mean much if an aggressive investor outperforms in a good year or a defensive investor outperforms in a bad year. To determine whether they have alpha and produce asymmetry, we have to consider whether the aggressive investor is able to avoid the full loss that his aggressiveness alone would produce in a bad market and whether the defensive investor can avoid missing out on too much of the gain when the market does well. <b>In my opinion, &#34;excellence&#34; lies in the asymmetry between the results in good and bad times.</b></p><p><b>As I see it, if inefficiencies are present in an investor&#39;s market, and she has alpha, the impact will show up in asymmetrical returns. If her returns show no asymmetry, the investor doesn&#39;t have alpha (or perhaps there are no inefficiencies for her to identify). Flipping that over, if an investor doesn&#39;t have alpha, her returns won&#39;t be asymmetrical. It&#39;s as simple as that.</b></p><p>To simplify, here&#39;s what I think about asymmetry. This discussion is based on material I included in my 2018 book <i>Mastering the Market Cycle:Getting the Odds on Your Side</i>. While I may appear to be talking about one good year and one bad one, these observations can only be considered valid if these patterns hold over a meaningful number of years.</p><p>Let&#39;s consider a manager&#39;s performance:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager A</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>The above manager clearly adds no value. You might as well invest in an index fund (probably at a much lower fee).</p><p>These two managers also add no value:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager B</td><td>+5%</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>Manager C</td><td>+20%</td><td>-20%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Manager B is just a no-alpha manager with a beta of 0.5, and manager C is a no-alpha manager with a beta of 2.0. You could get the same results as manager B by putting half your capital in an index fund and keeping the rest under your mattress and in the case of manager C, by doubling your investment with borrowed capital and putting it all in an index fund.</p><p>These two managers, however, do have alpha, as they exhibit asymmetry:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager D</td><td>+17%</td><td>-12%</td></tr><tr><td>Manager E</td><td>+9%</td><td>-3%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Both managers&#39; returns reflect more of the market&#39;s gain in good times than they do its loss in bad ones. Manager D might be described as an aggressive manager with alpha; she achieves 170% of the market&#39;s return when the market rises but suffers only 120% of the loss when it falls. Manager E is a defensive manager with alpha; his returns reflect 90% of the gain in an up market but only 30% of the loss in a down market. These asymmetries can only be attributed to the presence of alpha. Risk-tolerant clients will prefer to invest in D, and risk-averse ones will prefer E.</p><p>This manager is truly exceptional:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager F</td><td>+20%</td><td>-5%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>She beat the market in both directions: She&#39;s up more than the market when it rises and down less when it falls. She&#39;s up so much in a good market that you might be tempted to describe her as aggressive. But since she&#39;s down less in a down market, that description won&#39;t hold. Either she doesn&#39;t have a bias in terms of aggressiveness versus defensiveness, or her alpha is great enough to offset it.</p><p>Finally, here&#39;s one of the greatest managers of all time:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager G</td><td>+20%</td><td>+5%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Manager G is up in good and bad markets alike. He clearly doesn&#39;t have an aggressiveness/defensiveness bias, since his performance is exceptional in both markets. His alpha is sufficient to enable him to buck the trend and achieve a positive return in a down year. When you find Manager G, you should (A) do extensive due diligence regarding his reported performance, (B) if the numbers hold up, invest a lot of money with him, (C) hope he won&#39;t accept so much money that his edge goes away, and (D) send me his number.</p><p>What matters most? Asymmetry.</p><ul><li><p>In sum, asymmetry shows up in a manager&#39;s ability to do very well when things go his way and not too bad when they don&#39;t.</p></li><li><p>A great adage says, &#34;Never confuse brains and a bull market.&#34; Managers with the skill needed to produce asymmetry are special because they&#39;re able to fashion good gains from sources other than market advances.</p></li><li><p><b>When you think about it, the active investment business is, at its heart, completely about asymmetry. If a manager&#39;s performance doesn&#39;t exceed what can be explained by market returns and his relative risk posture - which stems from his choice of market sector, tactics, and level of aggressiveness - he simply hasn&#39;t earned his fees.</b></p></li></ul><p>Without asymmetry (see Managers A, B, and C on page 12), active management delivers no value and deserves no fees. <b>Indeed, all the choices an active investor makes will be for naught if he doesn&#39;t possess superior skill or insight.</b> By definition, average investors and below-average investors don&#39;t have alpha and can&#39;t produce asymmetry.</p><p>The big question is how to achieve asymmetry. Most of the things people focus on - the things I describe on pages one through nine as not mattering - can&#39;t provide it. As I&#39;ve said before, the average of all investors&#39; thinking produces market prices and, obviously, average performance. <b>Asymmetry can only be demonstrated by the relatively few people with superior skill and insight.</b> The key lies in finding them.</p><p><i><b>Editor&#39;s Note:</b></i><i> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Latest Memo From Howard Marks: What Really Matters?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLatest Memo From Howard Marks: What Really Matters?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-24 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560095-latest-memo-from-howard-marks-what-really-matters><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe vast majority of investors can’t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen.Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560095-latest-memo-from-howard-marks-what-really-matters\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560095-latest-memo-from-howard-marks-what-really-matters","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285384020","content_text":"SummaryThe vast majority of investors can’t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen.Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they’re for trading, not for owning.Most individual investors and anyone who understands the limitations regarding outperformance would probably be best off holding index funds over the long run.We AreI've gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year - plus some recent musings and conversations - to form the subject of this memo: what really matters or should matter for investors. I'll start by examining a number of things that I think don't matter.What Doesn't Matter: Short-Term EventsIn The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in I Beg to Differ (July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree's June 21 conference in London: How bad will inflation get? How much will the Fed raise interest rates to fight it? Will those increases cause a recession? How bad and for how long? The bottom line, I told the attendees, was that these things all relate to the short term, and this is what I know about the short term:Most investors can't do a superior job of predicting short-term phenomena like these.Thus, they shouldn't put much stock in opinions on these subjects (theirs or those of others).They're unlikely to make major changes in their portfolios in response to these opinions.The changes they do make are unlikely to be consistently right.Thus, these aren't the things that matter.Consider an example. In response to the first tremors of the Global Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve began to cut the fed funds rate in 3Q2007. They then lowered it to zero around the end of 2008 and left it there for seven years. In late 2015, virtually the only question I got was \"When will the first rate increase occur?\" My answer was always the same: \"Why do you care? If I say 'February,' what will you do? And if I later change my mind and say 'May,' what will you do differently? If everyone knows rates are about to rise, what difference does it make which month the process starts?\" No one ever offered a convincing answer. Investors probably think asking such questions is part of behaving professionally, but I doubt they could explain why.The vast majority of investors can't know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen. In The Illusion of Knowledge, I wrote at length about the way unforeseen events make a hash of economic and market forecasts. In summary, most forecasts are extrapolations, and most of the time things don't change, so extrapolations are usually correct, but not particularly profitable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of deviations from trends can be very profitable, but they're hard to make and hard to act on. These are some of the reasons why most people can't predict the future well enough to repeatably produce superior performance.Why is doing this so hard? Don't most of us know what events are likely to transpire? Can't we just buy the securities of the companies that are most likely to benefit from those events? In the long run, maybe, but I want to turn to a theme that Bruce Karsh has been emphasizing lately, regarding a major reason why it's particularly challenging to profit from a short-term focus: It's verydifficult to know which expectations regarding events are already incorporated in security prices.One of the critical mistakes people are guilty of - we see it all the time in the media - is believing that changes in security prices are the result of events: that favorable events lead to rising prices and negative events lead to falling prices. I think that's what most people believe - especially first-level thinkers - but that's not right. Security prices are determined by events and how investors react to those events, which is largely a function of how the events stack up against investors' expectations.How can we explain a company that reports higher earnings, only to see its stock price drop? The answer, of course, is that the reported improvement fell short of expectations and thus disappointed investors. So, at the most elementary level, it's not whether the event is simply positive or not, but how the event compares with what was expected.In my earliest working years, I used to spend a few minutes each day looking over the earnings reports printed in The Wall Street Journal. But after a while, it dawned on me that since I didn't know what numbers had been expected, I had no idea whether an announcement from a company I didn't follow was good news or bad.Investors can become experts regarding a few companies and their securities, but no one is likely to know enough about macro events to (A) be able to understand the macro expectations that underlie the prices of securities, (B) anticipate the broad events, and (C) predict how those securities will react. Where can a prospective buyer look to find out what the investors who set securities prices already anticipate in terms of inflation, GDP, or unemployment? Inferences regarding expectations can sometimes be drawn from asset prices, but the inferred levels often aren't proved correct when the actual results come in.Further, in the short term, security prices are highly susceptible to random and exogenous events that can swamp the impact of fundamental events. Macro events and the ups and downs of companies' near-term fortunes are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of - or relevant to - companies' long-term prospects. So little attention should be paid to them. For example, companies often deliberately reduce current earnings by investing in the future of their businesses; thus, low reported earnings can imply high future earnings, not continued low earnings. To know the difference, you have to have an in-depth understanding of the company.No one should be fooled into thinking security pricing is a dependable process that accurately follows a set of rules. Events are unpredictable; they can be altered by unpredictable influences, and investors' reactions to the events that occur are unpredictable. Due to the presence of so much uncertainty, most investors are unable to improve their results by focusing on the short term.It's clear from observation that security prices fluctuate much more than economic output or company profits. What accounts for this? It must be the fact that, in the short term, the ups and downs of prices are influenced far more by swings in investor psychology than by changes in companies' long-term prospects. Because swings in psychology matter more in the near term than changes in fundamentals - and are so hard to predict - most short-term trading is a waste of time... or worse.What Doesn't Matter: The Trading MentalityOver the years, my memos have often included some of my father's jokes from the 1950s, based on my strong belief that humor often reflects truths about the human condition. Given its relevance here, I'm going to devote a bit of space to a joke I've shared before:I include this old joke because I believe most people treat stocks and bonds like something to trade, not something to own.If you ask Warren Buffett to describe the foundation of his approach to investing, he'll probably start by insisting that stocks should be thought of as ownership interests in companies. Most people don't start companies with the goal of selling them in the short term, but rather they seek to operate them, enjoy profitability, and expand the business. Of course, founders do these things to ultimately make money, but they're likely to view the money as the byproduct of having run a successful business. Buffett says people who buy stocks should think of themselves as partners of owners with whom they share goals.But I think that's rarely the case. Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they're for trading, not for owning. This means they abandon the owner mentality and instead act like gamblers or speculators who bet on stock price moves. The results are often unpleasant.The DALBAR Institute 2012 study showed that investors receive three percentage points less per year than the S&P 500 generated from 1992 to 2012, and the average holding period for a typical investor is six months. Six Months!! When you hold a stock for less than a year, you are not using the stock market to acquire business ownership positions and participate in the growth of that business. Instead, you are just guessing at short-term news and expectations, and your returns are based on how other people react to that news information. In aggregate, that kind of attitude gets you three percentage points less per year than you'd get from doing nothing at all beyond making the initial investment in the index fund of the S&P 500. (\"Fidelity's Best Investors Are Dead,\" The Conservative Income Investor, April 8, 2020)To me, buying for a short-term trade equates to forgetting about your sports team's chances of winning the championship and instead betting on who's going to succeed in the next play, period, or inning.Let's think about the logic. You buy a stock because you think it's worth more than you have to pay for it, whereas the seller considers it fully priced. Someday, if things go well, it'll become fully priced, in your opinion, meaning you'll sell it. The person you sell it to, however, will buy it because he thinks it's worth still more. We used to talk about this process as being reliant on the Greater Fool Theory: No matter what price I pay for a stock, there will always be someone who will buy it from me for more, despite the fact that I'm selling because I've concluded that it has reached full value.Every buyer is motivated by the belief that the stock will eventually be worth more than today's price (a view the seller presumably doesn't share). The key question is what type of thinking underlies these purchases. Are the buyers buying because this is a company they'd like to own a piece of for years? Or are they merely betting that the price will go up? The transactions may look the same from the outside, but I wonder about the thought process and thus the soundness of the logic.Each time a stock is traded, one side is wrong and one is right. But if what you're doing is betting on trends in popularity, and thus the direction of price moves over the next month, quarter, or year, is it realistic to believe you'll be right more often than the person on the other side of the trade? Maybe the decline of active management can be attributed to the many active managers who placed bets on the direction of stock prices in the short term, instead of picking companies they wanted to own part of for years. It's all a matter of the underlying mentality.I had a long debate on this topic with my father back in 1969, when I lived with him during my first months at First National City Bank. (It's amazing for me to think back to those days; he was so much younger than I am today.) I told him I thought buying a stock should be motivated by something other than the hope that the price would rise, and I suggested this might be the expectation that dividends would increase over time. He countered that no one buys stocks for the dividends - they buy because they think the price will go up. But what would trigger the rise?Wanting to own a business for its commercial merit and long-term earnings potential is a good reason to be a stockholder, and if these expectations are borne out, a good reason to believe the stock price will rise. In the absence of that, buying in the hope of appreciation merely amounts to trying to guess which industries and companies investors will favor in the future. Ben Graham famously said, \"In the short run, a market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.\" While none of this is easy, as Charlie Munger once told me, carefully weighing long-term merit should produce better results than trying to guess at short-term swings in popularity.What Doesn't Matter: Short-Term PerformanceGiven the possible contributors to short-term investment performance, reported results can present a highly misleading picture, and here I'm talking mostly about superior gains in good times. I feel there are three ingredients for success during good times - aggressiveness, timing, and skill - and if you have enough aggressiveness at the right time, you don't need that much skill. We all know that in good times, the highest returns often go to the person whose portfolio incorporates the most risk, beta, and correlation. Having such a portfolio isn't a mark of distinction or insight if the investor is a perma-bull who's always positioned aggressively. Finally, random events can have an overwhelming impact on returns - in either direction - in a given quarter or year.One of the recurring themes in my memos is the idea that the quality of a decision cannot be determined by the outcome alone. Decisions often lead to negative outcomes even when they're well-reasoned and based on all the available information. On the other hand, we all know people - even occasionally ourselves - who've been right for the wrong reason. Hidden information and random developments can frustrate even the best thinkers' decisions. (However, when outcomes are considered over a long period of time and a large number of trials, the better decision maker is overwhelmingly likely to have a higher proportion of successes.)Obviously, no one should attach much significance to returns in one quarter or year. Investment performance is simply one result drawn from the full range of returns that could have materialized, and in the short term, it can be heavily influenced by random events. Thus, a single quarter's return is likely to be a very weak indicator of an investor's ability, if that. Deciding whether a manager has a special skill - or whether an asset allocation is appropriate for the long run - on the basis of one quarter or year is like forming an opinion of a baseball player on the basis of one trip to the plate, or of a racehorse based on one race.We know short-term performance doesn't matter much. And yet, most of the investment committees I've sat on have had the latest quarter's performance as the first item on the agenda and devoted a meaningful portion of each meeting to it. The discussion is usually extensive, but it rarely leads to significant action. So why do we keep doing it? For the same reasons investors pay attention to forecasting, as described in The Illusion of Knowledge: \"everyone does it,\" and \"it would be irresponsible not to.\"What Doesn't Matter: VolatilityI haven't written much about volatility, other than to say I strongly disagree with people who consider it the definition or essence of risk. I've described my belief that the academics who developed the Chicago School theory of investment in the early 1960s (A) wanted to examine the relationship between investment returns and risk, (B) needed a number quantifying risk that they could put into their calculations, and (C) undoubtedly chose volatility as a proxy for risk for the simple reason that it was the only quantifiable metric available. I define risk as the probability of a bad outcome, and volatility is, at best, an indicator of the presence of risk. But volatility is not risk. That's all I'm going to say on that subject.What I want to talk about here is the extent to which thinking and caring about volatility has warped the investing world over the 50-plus years that I've been in it. It was a great advantage for me to have attended the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago in the late '60s and to have been part of one of the very first classes that taught new theories. I learned about the efficient market hypothesis, the capital asset pricing model, the random walk, the importance of risk aversion, and the role of volatility as risk. While volatility wasn't a topic of conversation when I got into the real world of investing in 1969, the practice soon caught up with the theory.In particular, the Sharpe ratio was adopted as the measure of risk-adjusted return. It's the ratio of a portfolio's excess return (the part of its return that exceeds the yield on T-bills) to its volatility. The more return per unit of volatility, the higher the risk-adjusted return. Risk adjustment is an essential concept, and returns should absolutely be evaluated relative to the risk that was taken to achieve them. Everyone cites Sharpe ratios, including Oaktree, because it's the only quantitative tool available for the job. (If investors, consultants, and clients didn't use the Sharpe ratio, they'd have no metric at all, and if they tried to substitute fundamental riskiness for volatility in their assessments, they'd find that there's no way to quantify it.) The Sharpe ratio may hint at risk-adjusted performance in the same way that volatility hints at risk, but since volatility isn't risk, the Sharpe ratio is a very imperfect measure.Take, for example, one of the asset classes I started working with in 1978: high-yield bonds. At Oaktree, we think moderately-above-benchmark returns can be produced with substantially less risk than the benchmark, and this shows up in superior Sharpe ratios. But the real risk in high-yield bonds - the one we care about and have a history of reducing - is the risk of default. We don't much care about reducing volatility, and we don't take conscious steps to do so. We believe high Sharpe ratios can result from - and perhaps are correlated with - the actions we take to reduce defaults.Volatility is particularly irrelevant in our of fixed income or \"credit.\" Bonds, notes, and loans represent contractual promises of periodic interest and repayment at maturity. Most of the time when you buy a bond with an 8% yield, you'll basically get the 8% yield over its life, regardless of whether the bond price goes up or down in the interim. I say \"basically\" because, if the price falls, you'll have the opportunity to reinvest the interest payments at yields above 8%, so your holding-period return will creep up. Thus, the downward price volatility that so many revile is actually a good thing - as long as it doesn't presage defaults. (Note that, as indicated in this paragraph, \"volatility\" is often a misnomer. Strategists and the media often warn that \"there may be volatility ahead.\" What they really mean is \"there may be price declines ahead.\" No one worries about, or minds experiencing, volatility to the upside.)It's essential to recognize that protection from volatility generally isn't a free good. Reducing volatility for its own sake is a sub-optimizing strategy: It should be presumed that favoring lower-volatility assets and approaches will - all things being equal - lead to lower returns. Only managers with superior skill, or alpha (see page 11), will be able to overcome this negative presumption and reduce return less than they reduce volatility.Nevertheless, since many clients, bosses, and other constituents are uncomfortable with radical ups and downs (well, mostly with downs), asset managers often take steps to reduce volatility. Consider what happened after institutional investors began to pile into hedge funds following the three-year decline of stocks brought on by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000. (This was the first three-year decline since 1939-41.) Hedge funds - previously members of a cottage industry where most funds had a few hundred million dollars of capital from wealthy individuals - did much better than stocks in the downdraft. Institutions were attracted to these funds' low volatility, and thus invested billions in them.The average hedge fund delivered the stability the institutions wanted. But somewhere in the shuffle, the idea of earning high returns with low volatility got lost. Instead, hedge fund managers pursued low volatility as a goal in itself, since they knew it was what the institutions were after. As a result, over roughly the last 18 years, the average hedge fund delivered the low volatility that was desired, but it was accompanied by modest single-digit returns. No miracle there.Why do I recite all this? Because volatility is just a temporary phenomenon (assuming you survive it financially), and most investors shouldn't attach as much importance to it as they seem to. As I wrote in I Beg to Differ, many investors have the luxury of being able to focus exclusively on the long term... if they will take advantage of it. Volatility should be less of a concern for investors:whose entities are long-lived, like life insurance companies, endowments, and pension funds;whose capital isn't subject to lump-sum withdrawal;whose essential activities won't be jeopardized by downward fluctuations;who don't have to worry about being forced into mistakes by their constituents; andwho hasn't levered up with debt that might have to be repaid in the short run?Most investors lack some of these things, and few have them all. But to the extent these characteristics are present, investors should take advantage of their ability to withstand volatility, since many investments with the potential for high returns might be susceptible to substantial fluctuations.Warren Buffett always puts it best, and on this topic, he usefully said, \"We prefer a lumpy 15% return to a smooth 12% return.\" Investors who'd rather have the reverse - who find a smooth 12% preferable to a lumpy 15% - should ask themselves whether their aversion to volatility is mostly financial or mostly emotional.Of course, the choices made by employees, investment committee members, and hired investment managers may have to reflect real-world considerations. People in charge of institutional portfolios can have valid reasons for avoiding ups and downs that their organizations or clients might be able to stomach in financial terms but would still find unpleasant. All anyone can do is the best they can under their particular circumstances. But my bottom line is this: In many cases, people accord volatility far more important than they should.An AsideWhile I'm on the subject of volatility, I want to turn to an area that hasn't reported much of it of late: private investment funds. The first nine months of 2022 constituted one of the worst periods on record for both stocks and bonds. Yet, many private equities and private debt funds are reporting only small losses for the year to date. I'm often asked what this means, and whether it reflects reality.Maybe the performance of private funds is being reported accurately. (I know we believe ours is.) But I recently came across an interesting Financial Times article provocatively titled, \"The volatility laundering, return manipulation and 'phoney happiness' of private equity,\" by Robin Wigglesworth. Here's some of its content:The widening performance gap between public and private markets is a huge topic these days. Investors have often seen as the gormless [foolish] dupes falling for the \"return manipulation\" of cunning private equity tycoons. But what if they are co-conspirators?...That's what a new paper from three academics at the University of Florida argues. Based on nearly two decades worth of private equity real estate funds data, Blake Jackson, David Ling, and Andy Naranjo conclude that \"private equity fund managers manipulate returns to cater to their investors.\"...Jackson, Ling, and Naranjo's... central conclusion is that \"GPs do not appear to manipulate interim returns to fool their LPs, but rather because their LPs want them to do so\".Similar to the idea that banks design financial products to cater to yield-seeking investors or firms issue dividends to cater to investor demand for dividend payments, we argue that PE fund managers boost interim performance reports to cater to some investors' demand for manipulated returns....If a GP boosts or smooths returns,...investment managers within LP organizations can report artificially higher Sharpe ratios, alphas, and top-line returns, such as IRRs, to their trustees or other overseers. In doing so, these investment managers, whose median tenure of four years often expires years before the ultimate returns of a PE fund are realized, might improve their internal job security or potential labor market outcomes...This probably helps explain why private equity firms on average actually reported gains of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and only some modest marks downwards since then, despite global equities losing 22 percent of their value this year. (November 2, 2022. Emphasis added)If both GPs and LPs are happy with returns that seem unusually good, might the result be suspect? Is the performance of private assets being stated accurately? Is the low volatility being reported genuine? If the current business climate is challenging, shouldn't that affect the prices of public and private investments alike?But there's another series of relevant questions: Mightn't it be fair for GPs to decline to mark down private investments in companies that have experienced short-term weakness but whose long-term prospects remain bright? And while private investments might not have been marked down enough this year, isn't it true that the prices of public securities are more volatile than they should be, overstating the changes in long-term value? I certainly think public security prices reflect psychological swings that are often excessive. Should the prices of private investments emulate this?As with most things, any inaccuracy in reporting will eventually come to light. Eventually, private debt will mature, and private equity holdings will have to be sold. If the returns being reported this year understate the real declines in value, performance from here on out will likely look surprisingly poor. And I'm sure this will lead plenty of academics (and maybe a few regulators) to question whether the pricing of private investments in 2022 was too high. We'll see.What Doesn't Matter: Hyper-ActivityIn Selling Out (January 2022), I expressed my strong view that most investors trade too much. Since it's hard to make multiple consecutive decisions correctly, and trading costs money and is often likely to result from an investor's emotional swings, it's better to do less of it.When I was a boy, there was a popular saying: Don't just sit there; do something. But for investing, I'd invert it: Don't just do something; sit there. Develop the mindset that you don't make money on what you buy and sell; you make money (hopefully) on what you hold. Think more. Trade less. Make fewer, but more consequential, trades. Over-diversification reduces the importance of each trade; thus it can allow investors to take actions without adequate investigation or great conviction. I think most portfolios are over-diversified and over-traded.I devoted a good portion of The Illusion of Knowledge and Selling Out to warn investors about how difficult it is to improve returns through short-term market timing, and I quoted the great investor Bill Miller: \"Time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market.\"On this subject, I was recently asked by a consultant, \"If you don't try to get in and out of the market as appropriate, how do you earn your fees?\" My answer was that it's our job to assemble portfolios that will perform well over the long run, and market timing is unlikely to add to the outcome unless it can be done well, which I'm not convinced is usually the case. \"What about you?\" I asked. \"If you help a client establish an appropriate asset allocation, does it follow that you're not earning your fees if you don't change it a month later?\"Likewise, the day The Illusion of Knowledge came out, an old friend asked me, \"But you have to take a position [on short-run events], don't you?\" My answer, predictably, was, \"No, not if you don't have an advantage when doing so. Why would you bet on the outcome of a coin toss, especially if it costs money to play?\"I'll end my discussion of this subject with a wonderful citation:A news item that has gotten a lot of attention recently concerned an internal performance review of Fidelity accounts to determine which type of investors received the best returns between 2003 and 2013. The customer account audit revealed that the best investors were either dead or inactive - the people who switched jobs and \"forgot\" about an old 401(K) leaving the current options in place, or the people who died and the assets were frozen while the estate handled the assets. (\"Fidelity's Best Investors Are Dead,\" The Conservative Income Investor, April 8, 2020)Since the journalists have been unable to find the Fidelity study, and apparently so has Fidelity, the story is probably apocryphal. But I still like the idea, since the conclusion is so much in line with my thinking. I'm not saying it's worth dying to improve investment performance, but it might be a good idea for investors to simulate that condition by sitting on their hands.So What Does Matter?What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or ten years (or more) and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs. Some people say the long run is a series of short runs, and if you get those right, you'll enjoy success in the long run. They might think the route to success consists of trading often in order to capitalize on relative value assessments, predictions regarding swings in popularity, and forecasts of macro events. I obviously do not.Most individual investors and anyone who understands the limitations regarding outperformance would probably be best off holding index funds over the long run. Investment professionals and others who feel they need or want to engage in active management might benefit from the following suggestions.I think most people would be more successful if they focused less on the short-run or macro trends and instead worked hard to gain superior insight concerning the outlook for fundamentals over multi-year periods in the future. They should:study companies and securities, assessing things such as their earnings potential;buy the ones that can be purchased at attractive prices relative to their potential;hold onto them as long as the company's earnings outlook and the attractiveness of the price remain intact; andmake changes only when those things can't be reconfirmed, or when something better comes along.At the London conference mentioned on page one - while I was discussing (and discouraging) paying attention to the short run - I said that at Oaktree we consider it our job to (A) buy debt that will be serviced as promised (or will return the same amount or more if not) and (B) invest in companies that will become more valuable over time. I'll stick with that.The above description of the investor's job is quite simple... some might say simplistic. And it is. Setting out the goals and the process in broad terms is easy. The hard part is executing better than most people: That's the only route to market-beating performance. Since average decision-making is reflected in security prices and produces average performance, superior results have to be based on superior insight. But I can't tell you how to do these things better than the average investor.There's a lot more to the process, and I'm going to outline some of what I think are key elements to remember. You'll recognize recurring themes here, from other memos, and from earlier pages in this one, but I make no apology for dwelling on things that are important:Forget the short run - only the long run matters. Think of securities as interests in companies, not trading cards.Decide whether you believe in market efficiency. If so, is your market sufficiently inefficient to permit outperformance, and are you up to the task of exploiting it?Decide whether your approach will lean more toward aggressiveness or defensiveness. Will you try to find more and bigger winners or focus on avoiding losers, or both? Will you try to make more on the way up or lose less on the down, or both? (Hint: \"both\" is much harder to achieve than one or the other.) In general, people's investment styles should fit their personalities.Think about what your normal risk posture should be - your normal balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness - based on your or your clients' financial position, needs, aspirations, and ability to live with fluctuations. Consider whether you'll vary your balance depending on what happens in the market.Adopt a healthy attitude toward return and risk. Understand that \"the more return potential, the better\" can be a dangerous rule to follow given that increased return potential is usually accompanied by increased risk. On the other hand, completely avoiding risk usually leads to avoiding return as well.Insist on an adequate margin of safety, or the ability to weather periods when things go less well than you expected.Stop trying to predict the macro; study the micro like mad in order to know your subject better than others. Understand that you can expect to succeed only if you have a knowledge advantage, and be realistic about whether you have it or not. Recognize that trying harder isn't enough. Accept my son Andrew's view that merely possessing \"readily available quantitative information regarding the present\" won't give you above-average results, since everyone else has it.Recognize that psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings. Profit if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.Study conditions in the investment environment - especially investor behavior - and consider where things stand in terms of the cycle. Understand that where the market stands in its cycle will strongly influence whether the odds are in your favor or against you.Buy debt when you like the yield, not for trading purposes. In other words, buy 9% bonds if you think the yield compensates you for the risk, and you'll be happy with 9%. Don't buy 9% bonds expecting to make 11% thanks to price appreciation resulting from declining interest rates.Of critical importance, equity investors should make their primary goals (A) participating in the secular growth of economies and companies and (B) benefiting from the wonder of compounding. Think about the 10.5% yearly return of the S&P 500 Index (or its predecessors) since 1926 and the fact that this would have turned $1 into over $13,000 by now, even though the period witnessed 16 recessions, one Great Depression, several wars, one World War, a global pandemic, and many instances of geopolitical turmoil.Think of participating in the long-term performance of the average as the main event and the active efforts to improve on it as \"embroidery around the edges.\" This might be the reverse of most active investors' attitudes. Improving results through over- and underweighting, short-term trading, market timing, and other active measures aren't easy. Believing you can do these things successfully requires the assumption that you're smarter than a bunch of very smart people. Think twice before proceeding, as the requirements for success are high (see below).Don't mess it up by over-trading. Think of buying and selling as an expense item, not a profit center. I love the idea of the automated factory of the future, with one man and one dog; The dog's job is to keep the man from touching the machinery, and the man's job is to feed the dog. Investors should find a way to keep their hands off their portfolios most of the time.A Special Word in Closing: Asymmetry\"Asymmetry\" is a concept I've been conscious of for decades and consider more important with every passing year. It's my word for the essence of investment excellence and a standard against which investors should be measured.First, some definitions:I'm going to talk below about whether an investor has \"alpha.\" Alpha is technically defined as a return in excess of the benchmark return, but I prefer to think of it as a superior investing skill. It's the ability to find and exploit inefficiencies when they're present.Inefficiencies - mispricings or mistakes - represent instances when an asset's price diverges from its fair value. These divergences can show up as bargains or the opposite, over-pricings.Bargains will dependably perform better than other investments over time after adjustment for their riskiness. Over-pricings will do the opposite.\"Beta\" is an investor's or a portfolio's relative volatility, also described as relative sensitivity or systematic risk.People who believe in the efficient market hypothesis think of a portfolio's return as the product of the market's return multiplied by the portfolio's beta. This is all it takes to explain results since there are no mispricings to take advantage of in an efficient market (and so no such thing as alpha). Thus, alpha is a skill that enables an investor to produce performance better than that which is explained purely by market return and beta. Another way to say this is that having alpha allows an investor to enjoy profit potential that is disproportionate to loss potential: asymmetry. In my view, asymmetry is present when an investor can repeatedly do some or all of the following:make more money in good markets than he gives back in bad markets,have more winners than losers,make more money on his winners than he loses on his losers,do well when his aggressive or defensive bias proves timely but not badly when it doesn't,do well when his sector or strategy is in favor but not badly when it isn't, andconstruct portfolios so that most of the surprises are on the upside.For example, most of us have an inherent bias toward either aggressiveness or defensiveness. For this reason, it doesn't mean much if an aggressive investor outperforms in a good year or a defensive investor outperforms in a bad year. To determine whether they have alpha and produce asymmetry, we have to consider whether the aggressive investor is able to avoid the full loss that his aggressiveness alone would produce in a bad market and whether the defensive investor can avoid missing out on too much of the gain when the market does well. In my opinion, \"excellence\" lies in the asymmetry between the results in good and bad times.As I see it, if inefficiencies are present in an investor's market, and she has alpha, the impact will show up in asymmetrical returns. If her returns show no asymmetry, the investor doesn't have alpha (or perhaps there are no inefficiencies for her to identify). Flipping that over, if an investor doesn't have alpha, her returns won't be asymmetrical. It's as simple as that.To simplify, here's what I think about asymmetry. This discussion is based on material I included in my 2018 book Mastering the Market Cycle:Getting the Odds on Your Side. While I may appear to be talking about one good year and one bad one, these observations can only be considered valid if these patterns hold over a meaningful number of years.Let's consider a manager's performance:Market performance+10%-10%Manager A+10%-10%The above manager clearly adds no value. You might as well invest in an index fund (probably at a much lower fee).These two managers also add no value:Market performance+10%-10%Manager B+5%-5%Manager C+20%-20%Manager B is just a no-alpha manager with a beta of 0.5, and manager C is a no-alpha manager with a beta of 2.0. You could get the same results as manager B by putting half your capital in an index fund and keeping the rest under your mattress and in the case of manager C, by doubling your investment with borrowed capital and putting it all in an index fund.These two managers, however, do have alpha, as they exhibit asymmetry:Market performance+10%-10%Manager D+17%-12%Manager E+9%-3%Both managers' returns reflect more of the market's gain in good times than they do its loss in bad ones. Manager D might be described as an aggressive manager with alpha; she achieves 170% of the market's return when the market rises but suffers only 120% of the loss when it falls. Manager E is a defensive manager with alpha; his returns reflect 90% of the gain in an up market but only 30% of the loss in a down market. These asymmetries can only be attributed to the presence of alpha. Risk-tolerant clients will prefer to invest in D, and risk-averse ones will prefer E.This manager is truly exceptional:Market performance+10%-10%Manager F+20%-5%She beat the market in both directions: She's up more than the market when it rises and down less when it falls. She's up so much in a good market that you might be tempted to describe her as aggressive. But since she's down less in a down market, that description won't hold. Either she doesn't have a bias in terms of aggressiveness versus defensiveness, or her alpha is great enough to offset it.Finally, here's one of the greatest managers of all time:Market performance+10%-10%Manager G+20%+5%Manager G is up in good and bad markets alike. He clearly doesn't have an aggressiveness/defensiveness bias, since his performance is exceptional in both markets. His alpha is sufficient to enable him to buck the trend and achieve a positive return in a down year. When you find Manager G, you should (A) do extensive due diligence regarding his reported performance, (B) if the numbers hold up, invest a lot of money with him, (C) hope he won't accept so much money that his edge goes away, and (D) send me his number.What matters most? Asymmetry.In sum, asymmetry shows up in a manager's ability to do very well when things go his way and not too bad when they don't.A great adage says, \"Never confuse brains and a bull market.\" Managers with the skill needed to produce asymmetry are special because they're able to fashion good gains from sources other than market advances.When you think about it, the active investment business is, at its heart, completely about asymmetry. If a manager's performance doesn't exceed what can be explained by market returns and his relative risk posture - which stems from his choice of market sector, tactics, and level of aggressiveness - he simply hasn't earned his fees.Without asymmetry (see Managers A, B, and C on page 12), active management delivers no value and deserves no fees. Indeed, all the choices an active investor makes will be for naught if he doesn't possess superior skill or insight. By definition, average investors and below-average investors don't have alpha and can't produce asymmetry.The big question is how to achieve asymmetry. Most of the things people focus on - the things I describe on pages one through nine as not mattering - can't provide it. As I've said before, the average of all investors' thinking produces market prices and, obviously, average performance. Asymmetry can only be demonstrated by the relatively few people with superior skill and insight. The key lies in finding them.Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968794733,"gmtCreate":1669328399923,"gmtModify":1676538182439,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968794733","repostId":"1193359618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193359618","pubTimestamp":1669293016,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193359618?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-24 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193359618","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growin","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Palantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.</li><li>The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.</li><li>Stock-based compensations and the resulting dilution of outstanding shares are still discouraging for shareholders.</li><li>Although Palantir&#39;s stock has declined already 80% from its previous all-time high, the stock is still overvalued in my opinion and not a great investment.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a010feafd9264848fea7b7e30ebe25cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Scott Olson</span></p><p>My first and only article about Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) was published in February 2022. At that point, the stock was trading for $14 and although the stock had already declined 67% at that point from its previous all-time highs, I stated thatPalantir was a risky bet. In the meantime, the stock has been cut almost in half again and is now trading about 80% below its previous all-time high. Nevertheless, Palantir is still not a good investment, and I will explain why I am still cautious about the stock.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dde9d87a6c57be44bdc788e65a9bda1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Quarterly Results</h2><p>We can start by looking at the third quarter results, which Palantir reported at the beginning of November. And for starters, we must point out that Palantir is still increasing with a solid growth rate while other technology companies are already struggling and are not able to report double-digit revenue growth anymore.</p><p>Revenue in the third quarter increased from $392.1 million in the same quarter last year to $477.9 million in this quarter – resulting in 21.9% year-over-year growth. Loss from operations declined from $91.9 million in Q3/21 to $62.2 million in Q3/22 and although Palantir could improve, the business is still not profitable. But diluted net loss per share increased from $0.05 to a loss of $0.06 in this quarter.</p><p>Additionally, the total customers for Palantir increased from 203 in the same quarter last year to 337 right now – resulting in 66% year-over-year growth. And compared to the previous quarter, Palantir added 33 net new customers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775a52ff7988f009fb5679e4a65341e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><p>During the third quarter of fiscal 2022, Palantir closed 78 deals of at least $1 million with 32 of these deals being at least $5 million and 19 deals were at least $10 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44937fe9eca5417fd0c51facb9d3648f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><p>And when looking at the guidance for fiscal 2022, Palantir is now expecting $1.9 billion to $1.902 billion in revenue. Palantir raised its guidance and is now expecting an adjusted income from operations to be between $384 million to $386 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54098b8b48757becfeea0894faab6e65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><h2>Growth Opportunities In Challenging Times</h2><p>But despite the raised guidance, when listening to Alexander Karp during the earnings calls or in interviews, he is seeing difficult times ahead. During the last earnings call, Alexander Karp made the following statement:</p><blockquote>By the way, that&#39;s why we prepared and then that&#39;s the technical thing. Why do we have 8 quarters of free cash flow? Do you think it&#39;s a coincidence, we were preparing for this. We have -- why do we have $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt? We weren&#39;t living in the metasphere. We were living in this world in the way we thought it would be -- and we&#39;ve been essentially -- you could even look at this as a prep. We&#39;re a prepper company. We&#39;ve been preparing it&#39;s like -- preppers have their rucksack and a rifle. We have PG, GAIA, Foundry and $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt. That&#39;s our company.</blockquote><p>And when looking at the balance sheet, Palantir is positioned quite well. On September 30, 2022, the company had $2,411 million in cash and cash equivalents as well as $57 million in short-term marketable securities. And aside from having no debt on the balance sheet, the company also has no goodwill on its balance sheet. In case of Palantir, 74% of its $3,319 million in total assets are highly liquid assets (cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities), which is good in case of crisis.</p><p>But not only is Palantir prepared for challenging times due to a solid balance sheet, Alexander Karp is also expecting the company to profit from the uncertain times ahead. During an interview with CNBC at the end of September, he made the following statement:</p><blockquote>Bad times are incredibly good for Palantir... bad times really uncover the durable companies, and tech is going through bad times... interest rates are the reason.</blockquote><p>Karp also states that Palantir’s software is at war – in Europe and around the world. And he sees the software as a way for nations to impose and defend their values. And Karp sees great growth potential in the years ahead – not only because Palantir might profit from bad times:</p><blockquote>We recognize that our path to growth is not always linear, but with the opportunity that lies ahead, we continue to recruit and retain the top talent at a time when other companies in the technology sector are slashing their plans and cutting workforces.</blockquote><blockquote>We have spent the last 2 decades building our products for the world in which we actually live. The disruption and uncertainty that we&#39;re seeing around us from Ukraine, the pandemic and inflation, it&#39;s driving customers towards us and to our software.</blockquote><p>In the second quarter earnings call, Alexander Karp said his ambition was to drive the company to $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025. In the same earnings call, Karp also expected that Palantir will finally be profitable in 2025. And of course, it is not unreasonable for Palantir to expect high growth rates. In its Form S-1. Palantir wrote its total addressable market [TAM] should be approximately $119 billion with the commercial sector being around $56 billion and the government sector being around $63 billion. This TAM is excluding institutions and countries where Palantir has chosen not to sell its software.</p><p>This seems to be in line with the expectations of other studies. And not only has Palantir a market share of only around 2% right now – giving the company enough room to grow by gaining market shares. Different studies are also expecting growth rates in the double digits for the market. When looking at the advanced analytics market, some expect even a CAGR above 20% in the years to come.</p><p>And during the last earnings call, Alexander Karp also pointed out where he is seeing the huge competitive advantage of Palantir – especially compared to peers like Microsoft (MSFT) or Snowflake (SNOW):</p><blockquote>The answer is really the ontology. It&#39;s why our platforms remain far ahead of the competition. And that&#39;s because the ontology, it&#39;s the missing link in terms of what you need to realize value from all of these investments. It&#39;s the component and the architecture that&#39;s required to get data apps to actually deliver value on top of cloud data warehouses or to get AI to scale throughout the enterprise or to turn your digital twin into something that&#39;s actionable and operational within the enterprise. And we&#39;ve spent 15 years investing in a road map that&#39;s deep and built upon the ontology, and it continues to be the focus of all the core investments that we&#39;re making around product.</blockquote><h2>Reservation Against Palantir</h2><p>But despite the competitive advantage Karp sees for Palantir in the years to come, the business is also facing risks in its path toward growth. In his last letter to shareholders, Alexander Karp wrote:</p><blockquote>It has been our experience, however, that some countries, particularly in continental Europe, including Germany, have fallen behind the United States in their willingness and ability to implement enterprise software systems that challenge existing habits and modes of operation.</blockquote><blockquote>There have been repeated attempts to build replicas of Silicon Valley in continental Europe, in Germany and elsewhere, but the results have been decidedly mixed.</blockquote><blockquote>We have found that large institutions in the United States have been far more willing to investigate the most significant sources of systemic dysfunction within their organizations, which in the current moment often relate to the ability or rather inability of an institution to metabolize its own data.</blockquote><p>And this is an aspect that should certainly not be underestimated for Palantir’s ambitions to grow in the years to come. And from a German perspective I think Karp is correct in his assessment of people living here (as well as institutions) having strong reservations against Palantir.</p><h2>Stock-Based Compensation Leading To Dilution</h2><p>Not only is the business facing several risks, but shareholders are also facing risks by owning the stock right now. And one huge risk shareholders are facing is the stock-based compensation which is leading to a constant dilution of shares and in the last few quarters, the number of outstanding shares increased with a high pace. Right now, we have 2,073 million outstanding shares compared to 1,964 million one year earlier and 1,763 million after the IPO of Palantir. This is resulting in an increase of almost 18% in less than two years and in my opinion, this is not a good sign for investors. And finally, this dilution has a huge negative impact on the intrinsic value of Palantir.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9fe6b4274d2704f89363d89bcddb6a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Of course, stock-based compensations can also have a positive side as it is a good way to get great talent for the business and employees, that are behind the company and the company’s goals (as they are also profiting from a thriving business resulting in a higher share price). And this can certainly have a positive effect on the business in the long run. However, diluted in the high single digits annually is extreme – even for a company growing with a high pace.</p><h2>Intrinsic Value Calculation</h2><p>A final risk for shareholders is simply overpaying for a stock that is not worth what it is currently trading for.</p><p>We can start by looking at simple valuation metrics – especially the price-free-cash-flow ratio as well as the price-sales ratio. Looking at the price-earnings ratio doesn’t make much sense as the metric is negative. Of course, the price-sales ratio declined over the last year, but Palantir is still trading for 9 times sales which is certainly not cheap. When looking at the S&amp;P 500 (SPY), there are only about 45 companies trading with a higher price-sales ratio. And the median P/S ratio of the S&amp;P 500 is 2.72 at the time of writing. And even when looking at technology stocks (according to Finviz; market cap above $2 billion), the median P/S ratio is 4.41. But as long as we are talking about price-sales ratios we also have to point out that Snowflake is trading for 28 times sales right now and compared to these valuation multiples, Palantir’s valuation seems to be quite reasonable.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38f5a49a57b61fa9fbd749ed81950b1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>When looking at the price-free-cash-flow ratio, Palantir is trading for a multiple of 84. Although this is below the 2021 P/FCF peak of 750 and below the average of 227, Palantir is still trading for extremely high valuation multiples (and usually even high growth rates can’t justify valuation multiples close to 100). And once again, we can point out that Snowflake is trading for a P/FCF ratio of 155 – twice as high as Palantir.</p><p>When using a discount cash flow calculation, we can take the free cash flow of the last four quarters as basis. But let’s be more optimistic and use the highest free cash flow Palantir could report so far ($320 million in free cash flow). When taking this amount as basis and assume 6% growth till perpetuity (like we always do with high quality businesses) the company must grow its free cash flow about 17% annually for the next ten years to be fairly valued (assuming 2,073 million outstanding shares and a 10% discount rate).</p><p>I would not say such growth rates are impossible for a company – we can find several examples of businesses growing with such a CAGR over 10 years or even longer. But 17% growth for 10 years would probably be one of the highest growth rates I ever used in an intrinsic value calculation just to reach fair value for a stock. And these calculations are assuming no further dilution of shares, which seems rather unlikely at this point. In the last two years, the company has been diluting in the high single digits and to set dilution off, Palantir rather must grow its free cash flow about 25% annually to be fairly valued for the next few years. And 25% growth is also not impossible but no growth rate I would use in any way (in my opinion, this would be investing based on hope).</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Although the stock price is now more than 40% lower than when my last article was published, I am afraid the conclusion must be the same. The stock is still not fairly valued and not a great investment. With thousands of other stocks being available and us being able to identify at least 100 high-quality businesses with a wide economic moat, I don’t see any reason to bet on Palantir. A company where it is difficult to estimate the growth potential and where the huge stock-based compensations and resulting stock dilutions are offsetting to any investor. And the potential high growth potential Palantir could have is not enough at this point to bet on Palantir.</p><p><i>This article is written by Daniel Schönberger for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-24 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.Stock...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193359618","content_text":"SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.Stock-based compensations and the resulting dilution of outstanding shares are still discouraging for shareholders.Although Palantir's stock has declined already 80% from its previous all-time high, the stock is still overvalued in my opinion and not a great investment.Scott OlsonMy first and only article about Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) was published in February 2022. At that point, the stock was trading for $14 and although the stock had already declined 67% at that point from its previous all-time highs, I stated thatPalantir was a risky bet. In the meantime, the stock has been cut almost in half again and is now trading about 80% below its previous all-time high. Nevertheless, Palantir is still not a good investment, and I will explain why I am still cautious about the stock.Data by YChartsQuarterly ResultsWe can start by looking at the third quarter results, which Palantir reported at the beginning of November. And for starters, we must point out that Palantir is still increasing with a solid growth rate while other technology companies are already struggling and are not able to report double-digit revenue growth anymore.Revenue in the third quarter increased from $392.1 million in the same quarter last year to $477.9 million in this quarter – resulting in 21.9% year-over-year growth. Loss from operations declined from $91.9 million in Q3/21 to $62.2 million in Q3/22 and although Palantir could improve, the business is still not profitable. But diluted net loss per share increased from $0.05 to a loss of $0.06 in this quarter.Additionally, the total customers for Palantir increased from 203 in the same quarter last year to 337 right now – resulting in 66% year-over-year growth. And compared to the previous quarter, Palantir added 33 net new customers.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationDuring the third quarter of fiscal 2022, Palantir closed 78 deals of at least $1 million with 32 of these deals being at least $5 million and 19 deals were at least $10 million.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationAnd when looking at the guidance for fiscal 2022, Palantir is now expecting $1.9 billion to $1.902 billion in revenue. Palantir raised its guidance and is now expecting an adjusted income from operations to be between $384 million to $386 million.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationGrowth Opportunities In Challenging TimesBut despite the raised guidance, when listening to Alexander Karp during the earnings calls or in interviews, he is seeing difficult times ahead. During the last earnings call, Alexander Karp made the following statement:By the way, that's why we prepared and then that's the technical thing. Why do we have 8 quarters of free cash flow? Do you think it's a coincidence, we were preparing for this. We have -- why do we have $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt? We weren't living in the metasphere. We were living in this world in the way we thought it would be -- and we've been essentially -- you could even look at this as a prep. We're a prepper company. We've been preparing it's like -- preppers have their rucksack and a rifle. We have PG, GAIA, Foundry and $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt. That's our company.And when looking at the balance sheet, Palantir is positioned quite well. On September 30, 2022, the company had $2,411 million in cash and cash equivalents as well as $57 million in short-term marketable securities. And aside from having no debt on the balance sheet, the company also has no goodwill on its balance sheet. In case of Palantir, 74% of its $3,319 million in total assets are highly liquid assets (cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities), which is good in case of crisis.But not only is Palantir prepared for challenging times due to a solid balance sheet, Alexander Karp is also expecting the company to profit from the uncertain times ahead. During an interview with CNBC at the end of September, he made the following statement:Bad times are incredibly good for Palantir... bad times really uncover the durable companies, and tech is going through bad times... interest rates are the reason.Karp also states that Palantir’s software is at war – in Europe and around the world. And he sees the software as a way for nations to impose and defend their values. And Karp sees great growth potential in the years ahead – not only because Palantir might profit from bad times:We recognize that our path to growth is not always linear, but with the opportunity that lies ahead, we continue to recruit and retain the top talent at a time when other companies in the technology sector are slashing their plans and cutting workforces.We have spent the last 2 decades building our products for the world in which we actually live. The disruption and uncertainty that we're seeing around us from Ukraine, the pandemic and inflation, it's driving customers towards us and to our software.In the second quarter earnings call, Alexander Karp said his ambition was to drive the company to $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025. In the same earnings call, Karp also expected that Palantir will finally be profitable in 2025. And of course, it is not unreasonable for Palantir to expect high growth rates. In its Form S-1. Palantir wrote its total addressable market [TAM] should be approximately $119 billion with the commercial sector being around $56 billion and the government sector being around $63 billion. This TAM is excluding institutions and countries where Palantir has chosen not to sell its software.This seems to be in line with the expectations of other studies. And not only has Palantir a market share of only around 2% right now – giving the company enough room to grow by gaining market shares. Different studies are also expecting growth rates in the double digits for the market. When looking at the advanced analytics market, some expect even a CAGR above 20% in the years to come.And during the last earnings call, Alexander Karp also pointed out where he is seeing the huge competitive advantage of Palantir – especially compared to peers like Microsoft (MSFT) or Snowflake (SNOW):The answer is really the ontology. It's why our platforms remain far ahead of the competition. And that's because the ontology, it's the missing link in terms of what you need to realize value from all of these investments. It's the component and the architecture that's required to get data apps to actually deliver value on top of cloud data warehouses or to get AI to scale throughout the enterprise or to turn your digital twin into something that's actionable and operational within the enterprise. And we've spent 15 years investing in a road map that's deep and built upon the ontology, and it continues to be the focus of all the core investments that we're making around product.Reservation Against PalantirBut despite the competitive advantage Karp sees for Palantir in the years to come, the business is also facing risks in its path toward growth. In his last letter to shareholders, Alexander Karp wrote:It has been our experience, however, that some countries, particularly in continental Europe, including Germany, have fallen behind the United States in their willingness and ability to implement enterprise software systems that challenge existing habits and modes of operation.There have been repeated attempts to build replicas of Silicon Valley in continental Europe, in Germany and elsewhere, but the results have been decidedly mixed.We have found that large institutions in the United States have been far more willing to investigate the most significant sources of systemic dysfunction within their organizations, which in the current moment often relate to the ability or rather inability of an institution to metabolize its own data.And this is an aspect that should certainly not be underestimated for Palantir’s ambitions to grow in the years to come. And from a German perspective I think Karp is correct in his assessment of people living here (as well as institutions) having strong reservations against Palantir.Stock-Based Compensation Leading To DilutionNot only is the business facing several risks, but shareholders are also facing risks by owning the stock right now. And one huge risk shareholders are facing is the stock-based compensation which is leading to a constant dilution of shares and in the last few quarters, the number of outstanding shares increased with a high pace. Right now, we have 2,073 million outstanding shares compared to 1,964 million one year earlier and 1,763 million after the IPO of Palantir. This is resulting in an increase of almost 18% in less than two years and in my opinion, this is not a good sign for investors. And finally, this dilution has a huge negative impact on the intrinsic value of Palantir.Data by YChartsOf course, stock-based compensations can also have a positive side as it is a good way to get great talent for the business and employees, that are behind the company and the company’s goals (as they are also profiting from a thriving business resulting in a higher share price). And this can certainly have a positive effect on the business in the long run. However, diluted in the high single digits annually is extreme – even for a company growing with a high pace.Intrinsic Value CalculationA final risk for shareholders is simply overpaying for a stock that is not worth what it is currently trading for.We can start by looking at simple valuation metrics – especially the price-free-cash-flow ratio as well as the price-sales ratio. Looking at the price-earnings ratio doesn’t make much sense as the metric is negative. Of course, the price-sales ratio declined over the last year, but Palantir is still trading for 9 times sales which is certainly not cheap. When looking at the S&P 500 (SPY), there are only about 45 companies trading with a higher price-sales ratio. And the median P/S ratio of the S&P 500 is 2.72 at the time of writing. And even when looking at technology stocks (according to Finviz; market cap above $2 billion), the median P/S ratio is 4.41. But as long as we are talking about price-sales ratios we also have to point out that Snowflake is trading for 28 times sales right now and compared to these valuation multiples, Palantir’s valuation seems to be quite reasonable.Data by YChartsWhen looking at the price-free-cash-flow ratio, Palantir is trading for a multiple of 84. Although this is below the 2021 P/FCF peak of 750 and below the average of 227, Palantir is still trading for extremely high valuation multiples (and usually even high growth rates can’t justify valuation multiples close to 100). And once again, we can point out that Snowflake is trading for a P/FCF ratio of 155 – twice as high as Palantir.When using a discount cash flow calculation, we can take the free cash flow of the last four quarters as basis. But let’s be more optimistic and use the highest free cash flow Palantir could report so far ($320 million in free cash flow). When taking this amount as basis and assume 6% growth till perpetuity (like we always do with high quality businesses) the company must grow its free cash flow about 17% annually for the next ten years to be fairly valued (assuming 2,073 million outstanding shares and a 10% discount rate).I would not say such growth rates are impossible for a company – we can find several examples of businesses growing with such a CAGR over 10 years or even longer. But 17% growth for 10 years would probably be one of the highest growth rates I ever used in an intrinsic value calculation just to reach fair value for a stock. And these calculations are assuming no further dilution of shares, which seems rather unlikely at this point. In the last two years, the company has been diluting in the high single digits and to set dilution off, Palantir rather must grow its free cash flow about 25% annually to be fairly valued for the next few years. And 25% growth is also not impossible but no growth rate I would use in any way (in my opinion, this would be investing based on hope).ConclusionAlthough the stock price is now more than 40% lower than when my last article was published, I am afraid the conclusion must be the same. The stock is still not fairly valued and not a great investment. With thousands of other stocks being available and us being able to identify at least 100 high-quality businesses with a wide economic moat, I don’t see any reason to bet on Palantir. A company where it is difficult to estimate the growth potential and where the huge stock-based compensations and resulting stock dilutions are offsetting to any investor. And the potential high growth potential Palantir could have is not enough at this point to bet on Palantir.This article is written by Daniel Schönberger for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963565031,"gmtCreate":1668727691023,"gmtModify":1676538102152,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963565031","repostId":"1105653869","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105653869","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668727377,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105653869?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 07:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After-Hours Movers: Gap, Applied Materials, Ross Stores and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105653869","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Gap– The retailer popped 10% after beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue. Gap also also gave a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>– The retailer popped 10% after beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue. Gap also also gave a cautious outlook for the holiday season.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>– Shares of the cybersecurity provider added 6.5% after beating expectations for revenue and per-share earnings, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROST\">Ross Stores</a>– Shares shot up 15% following the discount retailer&#39;s report of beats on per-share earnings and revenue for the latest quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation</a>– The Ticketmaster parent gained nearly 3% following Ticketmaster&#39;s announcement that it would not hold its previously scheduled general sale of tickets for Taylor Swift&#39;s &#34;Eras&#34; tour on Friday. The announcement followed fans&#39; rebukes over site malfunctions and long waits during the presale on top of calls from public officials to break up the duo because of anti-trust concerns.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>– Shares of the financial technology company jumped 12% after its quarterly adjusted net income beat consensus estimates, according to FactSet. Revenue was also slightly higher than analysts predicted.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KEYS\">Keysight Technologies</a>– The electronic design company added 4.2% after it reported beating FactSet’s expectations for revenue and per-share earnings. Keysight also said those indicators will be either in-line or above expectations for the next quarter. Management said it had record orders in the quarter and fiscal year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>– Shares rose 3.4% after the manufacturer known for its semiconductor offerings beat analysts’ estimates on revenue and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After-Hours Movers: Gap, Applied Materials, Ross Stores and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter-Hours Movers: Gap, Applied Materials, Ross Stores and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-18 07:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>– The retailer popped 10% after beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue. Gap also also gave a cautious outlook for the holiday season.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>– Shares of the cybersecurity provider added 6.5% after beating expectations for revenue and per-share earnings, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROST\">Ross Stores</a>– Shares shot up 15% following the discount retailer&#39;s report of beats on per-share earnings and revenue for the latest quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation</a>– The Ticketmaster parent gained nearly 3% following Ticketmaster&#39;s announcement that it would not hold its previously scheduled general sale of tickets for Taylor Swift&#39;s &#34;Eras&#34; tour on Friday. The announcement followed fans&#39; rebukes over site malfunctions and long waits during the presale on top of calls from public officials to break up the duo because of anti-trust concerns.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>– Shares of the financial technology company jumped 12% after its quarterly adjusted net income beat consensus estimates, according to FactSet. Revenue was also slightly higher than analysts predicted.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KEYS\">Keysight Technologies</a>– The electronic design company added 4.2% after it reported beating FactSet’s expectations for revenue and per-share earnings. Keysight also said those indicators will be either in-line or above expectations for the next quarter. Management said it had record orders in the quarter and fiscal year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>– Shares rose 3.4% after the manufacturer known for its semiconductor offerings beat analysts’ estimates on revenue and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KEYS":"Keysight Technologies Inc","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks","LYV":"Live Nation Entertainment","STNE":"StoneCo","AMAT":"应用材料","ROST":"罗斯百货有限公司"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105653869","content_text":"Gap– The retailer popped 10% after beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue. Gap also also gave a cautious outlook for the holiday season.Palo Alto Networks– Shares of the cybersecurity provider added 6.5% after beating expectations for revenue and per-share earnings, according to Refinitiv.Ross Stores– Shares shot up 15% following the discount retailer's report of beats on per-share earnings and revenue for the latest quarter.Live Nation– The Ticketmaster parent gained nearly 3% following Ticketmaster's announcement that it would not hold its previously scheduled general sale of tickets for Taylor Swift's \"Eras\" tour on Friday. The announcement followed fans' rebukes over site malfunctions and long waits during the presale on top of calls from public officials to break up the duo because of anti-trust concerns.StoneCo– Shares of the financial technology company jumped 12% after its quarterly adjusted net income beat consensus estimates, according to FactSet. Revenue was also slightly higher than analysts predicted.Keysight Technologies– The electronic design company added 4.2% after it reported beating FactSet’s expectations for revenue and per-share earnings. Keysight also said those indicators will be either in-line or above expectations for the next quarter. Management said it had record orders in the quarter and fiscal year.Applied Materials– Shares rose 3.4% after the manufacturer known for its semiconductor offerings beat analysts’ estimates on revenue and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963562223,"gmtCreate":1668727630962,"gmtModify":1676538102139,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963562223","repostId":"2284724716","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284724716","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668719520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284724716?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 05:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Applied Materials Forecasts Strong Q1 Revenue on Easing Supply Chain Woes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284724716","media":"Reuters","summary":"Chip tools maker Applied Materials Inc forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates on Thur","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chip tools maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials Inc</a> forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates on Thursday, on hopes that easing supply chain constraints will help it meet pent up demand from chipmakers ramping up production.</p><p>Shares of the Santa Clara, California-based company rose nearly 3 per cent in trading after the bell.</p><p>Even though the wider chip industry is seeing sluggish demand for consumer electronics like PCs and smart phones, the growing adoption of 5G and shift to hybrid work still remains positive.</p><p>Moreover, Applied is also set to benefit from a US push to cut dependency on China and ramp up domestic chip output, prompting chipmakers like Intel Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to announce plans for new plants.</p><p>The company posted revenue of US$6.75 billion for the fourth quarter ended Oct 30, compared to analysts&#39; average expectation of US$6.45 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>Chief Executive Gary Dickerson said that the company is slowing the &#34;rate of spending growth in the near term amid geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.&#34;</p><p>The company forecast current-quarter revenue of US$6.70 billion, plus or minus US$400 million, compared with analysts&#39; average estimate of US$6.45 billion.</p><p>Applied said the outlook includes expected impact of recently announced US export regulations and ongoing supply chain challenges.</p><p>Earlier in October, the company said export restrictions to China would result in a US$250 million-US$550 million loss in net sales in the quarter ending Oct 30, with a similar impact expected in the following three months.</p><p>Excluding items, the company earned US$2.03 per share, beating estimates of US$1.73 per share.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Applied Materials Forecasts Strong Q1 Revenue on Easing Supply Chain Woes</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApplied Materials Forecasts Strong Q1 Revenue on Easing Supply Chain Woes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-18 05:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Chip tools maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials Inc</a> forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates on Thursday, on hopes that easing supply chain constraints will help it meet pent up demand from chipmakers ramping up production.</p><p>Shares of the Santa Clara, California-based company rose nearly 3 per cent in trading after the bell.</p><p>Even though the wider chip industry is seeing sluggish demand for consumer electronics like PCs and smart phones, the growing adoption of 5G and shift to hybrid work still remains positive.</p><p>Moreover, Applied is also set to benefit from a US push to cut dependency on China and ramp up domestic chip output, prompting chipmakers like Intel Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to announce plans for new plants.</p><p>The company posted revenue of US$6.75 billion for the fourth quarter ended Oct 30, compared to analysts&#39; average expectation of US$6.45 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>Chief Executive Gary Dickerson said that the company is slowing the &#34;rate of spending growth in the near term amid geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.&#34;</p><p>The company forecast current-quarter revenue of US$6.70 billion, plus or minus US$400 million, compared with analysts&#39; average estimate of US$6.45 billion.</p><p>Applied said the outlook includes expected impact of recently announced US export regulations and ongoing supply chain challenges.</p><p>Earlier in October, the company said export restrictions to China would result in a US$250 million-US$550 million loss in net sales in the quarter ending Oct 30, with a similar impact expected in the following three months.</p><p>Excluding items, the company earned US$2.03 per share, beating estimates of US$1.73 per share.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284724716","content_text":"Chip tools maker Applied Materials Inc forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates on Thursday, on hopes that easing supply chain constraints will help it meet pent up demand from chipmakers ramping up production.Shares of the Santa Clara, California-based company rose nearly 3 per cent in trading after the bell.Even though the wider chip industry is seeing sluggish demand for consumer electronics like PCs and smart phones, the growing adoption of 5G and shift to hybrid work still remains positive.Moreover, Applied is also set to benefit from a US push to cut dependency on China and ramp up domestic chip output, prompting chipmakers like Intel Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to announce plans for new plants.The company posted revenue of US$6.75 billion for the fourth quarter ended Oct 30, compared to analysts' average expectation of US$6.45 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.Chief Executive Gary Dickerson said that the company is slowing the \"rate of spending growth in the near term amid geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.\"The company forecast current-quarter revenue of US$6.70 billion, plus or minus US$400 million, compared with analysts' average estimate of US$6.45 billion.Applied said the outlook includes expected impact of recently announced US export regulations and ongoing supply chain challenges.Earlier in October, the company said export restrictions to China would result in a US$250 million-US$550 million loss in net sales in the quarter ending Oct 30, with a similar impact expected in the following three months.Excluding items, the company earned US$2.03 per share, beating estimates of US$1.73 per share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963562091,"gmtCreate":1668727597514,"gmtModify":1676538102067,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963562091","repostId":"2284716909","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284716909","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668718854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284716909?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 05:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Drops As Hawkish Fed Official Comments Weigh","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284716909","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes ended modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session as hawki","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street&#39;s main indexes ended modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session as hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and data showing the labor market remained tight led some investors to worry about more aggressive interest rate hikes.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank needs to keep raising rates given that its tightening so far &#34;had only limited effects on observed inflation.&#34;</p><p>Stocks have retreated in recent days after a strong month-long rally spurred by softer-than-expected inflation reports that raised hopes the Fed would temper its rate hikes.</p><p>&#34;The Fed is still talking up, generally, interest rates,&#34; said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. &#34;There might be some disagreement about the pace. But interest rates are not coming down anytime soon.”</p><p>Stocks reduced losses late in the session but the major indexes still ended in negative territory.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 7.51 points, or 0.02%, to 33,546.32, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.23 points, or 0.31%, to 3,946.56 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 38.70 points, or 0.35%, to 11,144.96.</p><p>Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market remained tight. A report on Wednesday detailed strong retail sales growth last month, indicating the economy has weathered rate hikes.</p><p>Bets from traders of a 75 basis point hike at the Fed&#39;s next meeting climbed to 19% from about 15% a day earlier, according to the CME Group&#39;s FedWatch tool. Most investors still expect a 50 basis point increase.</p><p>Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) shares rose 5% after the company raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast with supply chain hurdles easing. The stock helped the S&amp;P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) log a 0.2% gain.</p><p>Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended lower, however, with utilities (.SPLRCU) shedding 1.8% and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) dropping about 1.3%.</p><p>In company news, shares of Macy&#39;s (M.N) surged 15% after the department store chain raised its annual profit forecast on resilient demand for high-end clothes and beauty products.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.65-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 46 new highs and 169 new lows.</p><p>About 10.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12.1 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Drops As Hawkish Fed Official Comments Weigh</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Drops As Hawkish Fed Official Comments Weigh\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-18 05:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street&#39;s main indexes ended modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session as hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and data showing the labor market remained tight led some investors to worry about more aggressive interest rate hikes.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank needs to keep raising rates given that its tightening so far &#34;had only limited effects on observed inflation.&#34;</p><p>Stocks have retreated in recent days after a strong month-long rally spurred by softer-than-expected inflation reports that raised hopes the Fed would temper its rate hikes.</p><p>&#34;The Fed is still talking up, generally, interest rates,&#34; said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. &#34;There might be some disagreement about the pace. But interest rates are not coming down anytime soon.”</p><p>Stocks reduced losses late in the session but the major indexes still ended in negative territory.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 7.51 points, or 0.02%, to 33,546.32, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.23 points, or 0.31%, to 3,946.56 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 38.70 points, or 0.35%, to 11,144.96.</p><p>Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market remained tight. A report on Wednesday detailed strong retail sales growth last month, indicating the economy has weathered rate hikes.</p><p>Bets from traders of a 75 basis point hike at the Fed&#39;s next meeting climbed to 19% from about 15% a day earlier, according to the CME Group&#39;s FedWatch tool. Most investors still expect a 50 basis point increase.</p><p>Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) shares rose 5% after the company raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast with supply chain hurdles easing. The stock helped the S&amp;P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) log a 0.2% gain.</p><p>Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended lower, however, with utilities (.SPLRCU) shedding 1.8% and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) dropping about 1.3%.</p><p>In company news, shares of Macy&#39;s (M.N) surged 15% after the department store chain raised its annual profit forecast on resilient demand for high-end clothes and beauty products.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.65-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 46 new highs and 169 new lows.</p><p>About 10.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12.1 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284716909","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes ended modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session as hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and data showing the labor market remained tight led some investors to worry about more aggressive interest rate hikes.St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank needs to keep raising rates given that its tightening so far \"had only limited effects on observed inflation.\"Stocks have retreated in recent days after a strong month-long rally spurred by softer-than-expected inflation reports that raised hopes the Fed would temper its rate hikes.\"The Fed is still talking up, generally, interest rates,\" said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. \"There might be some disagreement about the pace. But interest rates are not coming down anytime soon.”Stocks reduced losses late in the session but the major indexes still ended in negative territory.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 7.51 points, or 0.02%, to 33,546.32, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.23 points, or 0.31%, to 3,946.56 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 38.70 points, or 0.35%, to 11,144.96.Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market remained tight. A report on Wednesday detailed strong retail sales growth last month, indicating the economy has weathered rate hikes.Bets from traders of a 75 basis point hike at the Fed's next meeting climbed to 19% from about 15% a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Most investors still expect a 50 basis point increase.Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) shares rose 5% after the company raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast with supply chain hurdles easing. The stock helped the S&P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) log a 0.2% gain.Most S&P 500 sectors ended lower, however, with utilities (.SPLRCU) shedding 1.8% and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) dropping about 1.3%.In company news, shares of Macy's (M.N) surged 15% after the department store chain raised its annual profit forecast on resilient demand for high-end clothes and beauty products.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.65-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 46 new highs and 169 new lows.About 10.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12.1 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963169556,"gmtCreate":1668635593876,"gmtModify":1676538086134,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963169556","repostId":"2283827074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2283827074","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668601184,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2283827074?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 20:19","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Grab Lifts Revenue Outlook on Rideshare, Food Delivery Strength","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2283827074","media":"Reuters","summary":"Nov 16 (Reuters) - Grab Holdings Ltd on Wednesday raised its forecast for annual revenue as demand f","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nov 16 (Reuters) - Grab Holdings Ltd on Wednesday raised its forecast for annual revenue as demand for its ride-hailing service and food deliveries remains strong across Southeast Asia.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of Southeast Asia&#39;s biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm rose 15% in trading before the bell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53ce28248e71c377ad01973fad01adf\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Decade-old Grab has become a go-to for consumers in the region as they increasingly step out and return to offices.</p><p>The company said it expected revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion. It had previously forecast revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion for the year.</p><p>Grab also raised its forecast for annual gross merchandise volume growth (GMV) to between 22% and 25%. It had previously forecast GMV growth of 21% to 25% for the year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Lifts Revenue Outlook on Rideshare, Food Delivery Strength</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Lifts Revenue Outlook on Rideshare, Food Delivery Strength\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-16 20:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nov 16 (Reuters) - Grab Holdings Ltd on Wednesday raised its forecast for annual revenue as demand for its ride-hailing service and food deliveries remains strong across Southeast Asia.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of Southeast Asia&#39;s biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm rose 15% in trading before the bell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53ce28248e71c377ad01973fad01adf\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Decade-old Grab has become a go-to for consumers in the region as they increasingly step out and return to offices.</p><p>The company said it expected revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion. It had previously forecast revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion for the year.</p><p>Grab also raised its forecast for annual gross merchandise volume growth (GMV) to between 22% and 25%. It had previously forecast GMV growth of 21% to 25% for the year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2283827074","content_text":"Nov 16 (Reuters) - Grab Holdings Ltd on Wednesday raised its forecast for annual revenue as demand for its ride-hailing service and food deliveries remains strong across Southeast Asia.U.S.-listed shares of Southeast Asia's biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm rose 15% in trading before the bell.Decade-old Grab has become a go-to for consumers in the region as they increasingly step out and return to offices.The company said it expected revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion. It had previously forecast revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion for the year.Grab also raised its forecast for annual gross merchandise volume growth (GMV) to between 22% and 25%. It had previously forecast GMV growth of 21% to 25% for the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917747575,"gmtCreate":1665611998397,"gmtModify":1676537633826,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>bear","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>bear","text":"$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$bear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917747575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911691296,"gmtCreate":1664187674515,"gmtModify":1676537405879,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911691296","repostId":"9911607258","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9911607258,"gmtCreate":1664186464174,"gmtModify":1676537405699,"author":{"id":"3587020790873268","authorId":"3587020790873268","name":"meurasian77","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/029ef04cb8ec6291c3e5d53eb5cfac4b","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587020790873268","authorIdStr":"3587020790873268"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I just feel that Tiger could offer more coins for the daily rewards so that it will be easier for us userto redeem for stock vouchers. Also hope that Tiger could bring back the sending of coins to authors of meaningful posts. Also hope that Tiger could have more items for users to redeem gifts. Physical premiums like t-shirts, pens, caps , calculators, wireless keyboards and others could be offered for redemption, not just stock vouchers. Lastly also hope that Tiger could improvise on the Tiger membership program. It is super tough to promote to the next level. I have been stuck on level 5 for what it seems to me like forever.&nbsp;","listText":"I just feel that Tiger could offer more coins for the daily rewards so that it will be easier for us userto redeem for stock vouchers. Also hope that Tiger could bring back the sending of coins to authors of meaningful posts. Also hope that Tiger could have more items for users to redeem gifts. Physical premiums like t-shirts, pens, caps , calculators, wireless keyboards and others could be offered for redemption, not just stock vouchers. Lastly also hope that Tiger could improvise on the Tiger membership program. It is super tough to promote to the next level. I have been stuck on level 5 for what it seems to me like forever.&nbsp;","text":"I just feel that Tiger could offer more coins for the daily rewards so that it will be easier for us userto redeem for stock vouchers. Also hope that Tiger could bring back the sending of coins to authors of meaningful posts. Also hope that Tiger could have more items for users to redeem gifts. Physical premiums like t-shirts, pens, caps , calculators, wireless keyboards and others could be offered for redemption, not just stock vouchers. Lastly also hope that Tiger could improvise on the Tiger membership program. It is super tough to promote to the next level. I have been stuck on level 5 for what it seems to me like forever.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9911607258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992188294,"gmtCreate":1661292273520,"gmtModify":1676536487945,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992188294","repostId":"2261819523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2261819523","pubTimestamp":1661263959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2261819523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-23 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261819523","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla's stock split will take place after close of trading on Aug. 24. How will that impact your portfolio and taxes?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Tesla</b>&#39;s 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders&#39; meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close of trading on Aug. 24. Shareholders of record on Aug. 17 will receive a stock dividend of two extra shares for every one share they currently own.</p><p>If you&#39;ve been wondering how stock splits work and what will happen to your Tesla shares, here are three quick items to jot down.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442bd00ec553e9dc5ae35b44257799f8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>1. You&#39;ll have more Tesla shares after the stock split</h2><p>A stock split increases the number of shares outstanding, giving investors more shares in their account for every one share they previously owned.</p><p>After a stock split, the value of each share will be reduced to a lower price. This makes it easy for more retail investors to get their hands on a whole share of stock, because the stock price appears more affordable. If you&#39;re already an investor, your shares will be split into bite-sized pieces, but the total value of your shares will not increase.</p><p>Let&#39;s say you have one share of Tesla&#39;s stock. On the day of the 3-for-1 stock split, the company will grant you two additional shares. Each share in your portfolio would be valued at one-third the price of the original share. If one Tesla share is trading at $900 before the stock split, you&#39;ll have three Tesla shares valued at $300 each after the stock split. As you can see, the total value of your shares is still $900.</p><p>Here&#39;s how many shares you will have after the stock split based on the number of shares you have on record as of Aug. 17. All you have to do is look at the number of shares you have now, and multiply the total by three. That&#39;s how many shares you&#39;ll have after a stock split.</p><ul><li>1 share of Tesla stock = 3 shares</li><li>2 shares of Tesla stock = 6 shares</li><li>3 shares of Tesla stock = 9 shares</li><li>4 shares of Tesla stock = 12 shares</li><li>5 shares of Tesla stock = 15 shares</li></ul><h2>2. You won&#39;t have to report the stock split itself on your tax return</h2><p>A stock split doesn&#39;t increase a company&#39;s market capitalization or increase the value of your shares. You may have more shares in your account, but the original value of your shares remains the same. Therefore, a stock split in itself is not considered a taxable event. There are no IRS reporting requirements you need to adhere to during tax time.</p><h2>3. You may have to pay taxes if you sell your extra Tesla shares</h2><p>Although a stock split in itself is not taxable, selling stock for a profit after a stock split can lead to taxes. This is the case if you sell stock in a taxable brokerage account. Earning money in the stock market leads to capital gains taxes. You will be taxed at the short-term or long-term capital gains tax rate, depending on how long you had your Tesla stock before selling it. Your brokerage firm will send you the details of your transaction, so you can properly report the sale to the IRS during tax time.</p><p>Stock splits can be exciting and pain-free in the eyes of the investor. You wake up to more shares in your account after a stock split, and you don&#39;t have to worry about any tax obligations. But as soon as you decide to sell, you&#39;ll need to report your moves to the IRS. Before you make a move after a stock split, pay attention to the impact it will have on your portfolio and taxes, so you won&#39;t be surprised later.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 22:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders' meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2261819523","content_text":"Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders' meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close of trading on Aug. 24. Shareholders of record on Aug. 17 will receive a stock dividend of two extra shares for every one share they currently own.If you've been wondering how stock splits work and what will happen to your Tesla shares, here are three quick items to jot down.Image source: Getty Images.1. You'll have more Tesla shares after the stock splitA stock split increases the number of shares outstanding, giving investors more shares in their account for every one share they previously owned.After a stock split, the value of each share will be reduced to a lower price. This makes it easy for more retail investors to get their hands on a whole share of stock, because the stock price appears more affordable. If you're already an investor, your shares will be split into bite-sized pieces, but the total value of your shares will not increase.Let's say you have one share of Tesla's stock. On the day of the 3-for-1 stock split, the company will grant you two additional shares. Each share in your portfolio would be valued at one-third the price of the original share. If one Tesla share is trading at $900 before the stock split, you'll have three Tesla shares valued at $300 each after the stock split. As you can see, the total value of your shares is still $900.Here's how many shares you will have after the stock split based on the number of shares you have on record as of Aug. 17. All you have to do is look at the number of shares you have now, and multiply the total by three. That's how many shares you'll have after a stock split.1 share of Tesla stock = 3 shares2 shares of Tesla stock = 6 shares3 shares of Tesla stock = 9 shares4 shares of Tesla stock = 12 shares5 shares of Tesla stock = 15 shares2. You won't have to report the stock split itself on your tax returnA stock split doesn't increase a company's market capitalization or increase the value of your shares. You may have more shares in your account, but the original value of your shares remains the same. Therefore, a stock split in itself is not considered a taxable event. There are no IRS reporting requirements you need to adhere to during tax time.3. You may have to pay taxes if you sell your extra Tesla sharesAlthough a stock split in itself is not taxable, selling stock for a profit after a stock split can lead to taxes. This is the case if you sell stock in a taxable brokerage account. Earning money in the stock market leads to capital gains taxes. You will be taxed at the short-term or long-term capital gains tax rate, depending on how long you had your Tesla stock before selling it. Your brokerage firm will send you the details of your transaction, so you can properly report the sale to the IRS during tax time.Stock splits can be exciting and pain-free in the eyes of the investor. You wake up to more shares in your account after a stock split, and you don't have to worry about any tax obligations. But as soon as you decide to sell, you'll need to report your moves to the IRS. Before you make a move after a stock split, pay attention to the impact it will have on your portfolio and taxes, so you won't be surprised later.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077028412,"gmtCreate":1658442952836,"gmtModify":1676536157579,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077028412","repostId":"1172458898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172458898","pubTimestamp":1658416212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172458898?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify: What’S on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172458898","media":"TipRanks","summary":"The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has bee","content":"<div>\n<p>The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has been blunted by several factors.Canadian e-commerce heavyweight Shopify (SHOP) put the last quarter’s (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/shopify-whats-on-the-menu-for-q2-earnings-analyst-weighs-in/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify: What’S on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify: What’S on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/shopify-whats-on-the-menu-for-q2-earnings-analyst-weighs-in/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has been blunted by several factors.Canadian e-commerce heavyweight Shopify (SHOP) put the last quarter’s (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/shopify-whats-on-the-menu-for-q2-earnings-analyst-weighs-in/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/shopify-whats-on-the-menu-for-q2-earnings-analyst-weighs-in/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172458898","content_text":"The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has been blunted by several factors.Canadian e-commerce heavyweight Shopify (SHOP) put the last quarter’s (1Q22) slowing growth down to the usual suspects; consumers’ shift to offline retail and travel, difficult comps (which are expected to alleviate as the year progresses) and inflation, whereby consumers are more likely to pivot towards discount retailers.With the company set to report Q2 earnings on July 27, Stifel’sScott Devitt thinks the “near-term results may be further impacted by FX headwinds,” with the analyst noting non-US revenues account for ~36% of Shopify’s total haul.With this in mind, to account for not only the recent strengthening of the US dollar, but also reflecting “weaker than expected consumer demand” for discretionary e-commerce, the analyst has lowered Q2 GMV/revenue and adj. net income estimates, which now all fall below Street expectations. GMV growth expectations for 2023 are also given a trim, with the analyst’s $260 billion estimate (+25% year-over-year), also coming in lower than the consensus calls for $267 million (+27% YoY).That said, Devitt also thinks investors are by now well-aware of the current issues in the e-commerce space, and as such believes we might be “nearing a point where expectations for near-term growth have been appropriately reset.”“After several quarters of slowing growth for Shopify and the broader eCommerce group,” the analyst went on to say, “we believe investors may look past further downward revisions following the 2Q print as near-term headwinds related to shifting consumer spend and inflation have been well-telegraphed at this point in the cycle.”While Devitt might have lowered expectations for the quarter, a glance at website traffic in the period will be fodder for the bulls. Unique Visitors (UVs) are up sequentially by 31% while the year-over-year improvement is even more impressive, showing a 138% increase on the same period last year.Down to the nitty-gritty, what does it all mean for investors? Devitt rates SHOP a Buy, although the price target is lowered from $65 to $55. Nevertheless, the figure still makes room for 12-month growth of 43%.And what about the rest of the Street? Rating wise, opinions are mixed; the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on 13 Buys, 14 Holds and 2 Sells. However, the average target is an extremely bullish one; the figure clocks in at $70.30, suggesting shares will climb ~83% higher in the year ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4113904591642392","authorId":"4113904591642392","name":"LMSunshine","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ad636f2490d8428fcee9da6d669e46c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4113904591642392","authorIdStr":"4113904591642392"},"content":"Thanks for leaving a comment in my post, appreciate it loads 🤗 Check out other posts on my homepage & please help to like, many thanks 🤓","text":"Thanks for leaving a comment in my post, appreciate it loads 🤗 Check out other posts on my homepage & please help to like, many thanks 🤓","html":"Thanks for leaving a comment in my post, appreciate it loads 🤗 Check out other posts on my homepage & please help to like, many thanks 🤓"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077028179,"gmtCreate":1658442884591,"gmtModify":1676536157570,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077028179","repostId":"2252253318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252253318","pubTimestamp":1658397248,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252253318?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Will The Market Swoon Ever End?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252253318","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe selloff in the S&P and the Nasdaq since November last year has been a textbook example of","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The selloff in the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq since November last year has been a textbook example of controlled demolition.</li><li>No limit-down days, no Vix-spike, no panicky retail running for the door. Just a never-ending grind-down.</li><li>Will it ever end? We think the answer is more complicated than it first appears. But we don&#39;t think it&#39;s a magical mystery tour.</li><li>We believe the market can be charted quite well and key levels identified ahead of time.  We also believe crypto can be used as a canary in the coalmine.</li><li>For now, we believe SPY warrants a Hold rating; we explain below the triggers that we believe justify turning more bullish or bearish.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcd2f59d5320b003b2081f400358277\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A Message From Outside The Matrix</b></p><p>The journey of the inquisitive investor is a lifelong one. In short trousers you may learn about company fundamentals and the import thereof. Earnings, earnings per share, p/e multiples, all that sort of thing. As you progress you begin to factor macro data into your work. GDP numbers, inflation, rates and blah. If you are not<i>very</i>careful then you begin to ossify in your thinking. You see linear, directive relationships between earnings and stock prices, where only influential relationships exist. You come to expect that if inflation does X, rates will do Y, and stocks will do Z. And most of all you become locked into a way of thinking about a market trend. When it&#39;s going up, it&#39;s going up forever. And when down? Down forever.</p><p>None of this is your fault. Your problem-solving conscious brain is looking for a linear equation to solve for making money, in the same way that its prehistoric antecedent learned that there are linear equations for finding shelter and food. (Cavedweller 101: always look both ways out the front of the cave door before heading out, lest a sneaky predator deems you lunch). And your limbic brain, in an opioid haze most of the time, cannot be relied upon since it favors having you run towards the gunfire or away from it in equal measure, and an autonomic shot of the wrong corticosteroid at the wrong time can cause you to become hero or zero without any conscious input on your part.</p><p>This is why the best way to read markets is with a big dose of cynicism, a calm demeanor, and an understanding that unless you be J P Morgan himself, most folks are just there to be buffetted this way and that by the market. As far as the major indices go, in their options, futures or ETF clothing, you have in your favor that they are generally too big to fail for very long, that they are highly liquid, and that they are Playground Number One for Big Money who likes nothing better than a game of cat and mouse with Joe P. Retail. And taken together, that all means that the most popular index of all, the S&amp;P 500, can be played using pure sentiment as the gauge. Reality need never feature.</p><p>Fortunately you have tools available to model not-reality and you can use those tools to build a more likely outlook for stocks than your common-or-garden earnings forecasts. Technical analysis tools are, of course, simply ways to measure sentiment. You can call them something more scientific if you like, but really all they are trying to do is pattern recognition. Every TA tool says, well, usually when a security moves like<i>this</i>in the past it moves like<i>that</i>in the future. Beyond that, the skill is in the practitioner.</p><p><b>Will The S&amp;P 500 Go Up Now?</b></p><p>Here&#39;s how the S&amp;P 500 - using its proxy ETF, SPY - looks through the lens of a common TA tool, the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci method. Using this tool can help you prepare emotionally and financially for the trend you happen to find the market in. And this can help you prepare for trend reversals - which are the moments when Big Money truly burns small accounts, pausing only to giggle whilst sailing off into the sunset - literally - whilst grasping big chunks of folks&#39; 401(k)s.</p><p>Take a brief look at the chart and then we&#39;ll walk you through it.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9b66217861357094c120e39ad1af868\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>If you were sat in Fibonacci Wave 101 right now (this is a class we will teach one day, but we are only accepting Matrix-dwellers as applicants in order to maximize our own entertainment), and you knew nothing about anything, you had no Twitter, you didn&#39;t know who Bullard, Powell &amp; Co were (maybe a law firm?), you didn&#39;t ever leave your desk to buy anything so you hadn&#39;t noticed inflation?</p><p>You would say, well, that&#39;s a textbook stock chart right there. You<i>wouldn&#39;t</i>say, gosh, will this selling ever end? And you wouldn&#39;t have been saying in 2020-2021, why, these pesky kids are crazy with their never-ending YOLO buying. You would just say, huh, fake chart, too perfect with the reversals, show me a real life one and we can talk about it.</p><p>But this<i>is</i>a real life chart.</p><p>Here goes.</p><ul><li>From the 2016 lows, SPY puts in a Wave 1 up, peaking right before the Covid crash.</li><li>From that Wave 1 high in the $340 zone comes a 0.786 retracement of the Wave 1 up, troughing at around $219. A 0.786 retrace is an important Fibonacci level and it is a<i>textbook</i>Elliott Wave 2 down.</li><li>From the Covid lows we get a Wave 3 up which peaks right around the 1.618 extension of Wave 1, which is to say around $480. Read any Elliott Wave guide and see how long a Wave 3 usually is. Answer, very often indeed they are 1.618x the length of Wave 1. As SPY hit $480 back in Q4 last year we called &#34;Yikes, The Top&#34; in our<i>Growth Investor Pro</i>service, because the index simply could not push up above that 1.618 extension, no matter how many times it tried.</li><li>We then moved into a Wave 4 down, which has so far respected two Fibonacci retracement levels - the 0.236 retrace (around $419) and the 0.382 retrace (around $380). SPY tried to hold $419 as support back in February and March, failed, then treated it as resistance in May and June. The June selloff plunged below the $380 level then pushed up against it as resistance, and the index is currently thinking about whether to turn that level into support.</li></ul><p>If, big if, SPY moves up from here, then a reversal at the 0.786 for a Wave 2 low, at the 1.618 for a Wave 3 high, and a 0.382 for the Wave 4 low, is absolute textbook.</p><p>Now, knowing these potential reversal levels and knowing which wave you are in can help you train your brain to deal with the situation.</p><p>As the limit-down days hit in the Covid crisis you would say, well, this looks like a Wave 2 down, a brutal selloff in no time at all where shock &amp; awe fill the air around the watercooler. Well, that and a poisonous miasma of viral load. As the 0.786 approached you would say, well, it<i>might</i>plunge right past that but there&#39;s a good chance it doesn&#39;t, so I&#39;ll start thinking about buying the index again.</p><p>As the 1.618 extension served as resistance on several occasions late last year, you would likely have concluded, well, it really doesn&#39;t want to go much higher - and if you looked at the QQQ and saw that it had put in a 2.618 extension at this time and was putting in a similar headbanging performance - you might have agreed further with yourself.</p><p>And into the selloff this year you would have the 0.236 and the 0.382 and the 0.5 (that&#39;s $350 for SPY, plus or minus) in your sights. You would also be saying to yourself, this is a Wave 4. It&#39;s not a Shock and Awe Wave 2. It&#39;s a Slow Bleedout, Controlled Demolition Wave 4. You would say, we had a deep Wave 2 correction so<i>probably</i>Wave 4 won&#39;t be so deep.<i>Probably</i>it will be between the 0.382 and the 0.5 that it reverses.</p><p>Well, where we sit right now in SPY is that the ETF has been down to between the 0.382 and the 0.5 retracements, reaching a local low of around $362 in mid-June. And since then it has pushed up above the 0.382 level of $380 and is thinking about holding over that level.</p><p><b>Has The Market Stopped Selling Yet?</b></p><p>Well, the easy answer is, on a textbook larger-degree 5 waves up off of the 2016 lows then the market looks set to reach new highs in a final Wave 5 up. Using that lens, the next move up would top out somewhere above $480 and the market would then make a deep correction - much deeper than we have experienced this year - for some months, maybe more than a year. The logic being the 5 waves up off the 2016 lows would form a large Wave 1 and the subsequent large Wave 2 we could expect to bottom between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement of that Wave 1 up. That&#39;s somewhere between $250-300 for SPY. So, if this textbook chart pattern continues, you have your levels. Risk on until SPY approaches $480, then start dialing back the risk until SPY rolls over in a convincing fashion, by which time the prudent investor will already have assembled a basket of protective instruments - puts, short index positions, and so on.</p><p>Unfortunately we think it&#39;s a little more complicated than that. Sticking purely to chart analysis, and ignoring the whys and wherefores, the counterargument to the above is that the market is simply in a downtrend, and whilst that $380 can surely act as support, it will be merely until SPY hits its head on the resistance defined by that downtrend.</p><p>Like this:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84faf9e2e2308dd1c94a4ff3e5ccbd9b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY Chart II (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>So even if SPY does keep pushing up, we may run into resistance at +/-$400. Then, and only then, can we know whether truly sentiment will trump what lies outside the window. If it does, we should see SPY climb back up to that 0.236 retrace ($418ish) and beyond. And if not - a move back down to $380 and below, maybe as low as $350 (which is that 0.5 retracement of the post-Covid move up).</p><p>As always, nobody can know for sure and all you can do is watch in real time to know when it&#39;s safe to be risk-on and when best to dial back. In our <i>Growth Investor Pro</i> service our house stance is as follows:</p><p>Short-term bullish on the market until SPY approaches the $395-400 range, in which case we believe cashing in gains and de-grossing positions would be prudent. If SPY pushes up and out of that downward channel, and turns the upper resistance line into support, long positions can be safely added to in our view, in anticipation of a further rise. But if the downward channel persists and we&#39;re simply in a modest rally within a continuing bear market, time to keep cash and/or add to short positions. In our service we find the short levered index ETFs are useful instruments for this.</p><p><b>Other Useful Indicators Include Crypto</b></p><p>Corroborating evidence and other indicators of risk appetite? You can look at the Nasdaq if you like, but in truth whilst the timeframes are a little shortened and the price moves a little amplified vs. the S&amp;P, the two move very much in concert. So QQQ doesn&#39;t add much visibility to the mix.</p><p>Crypto however we find useful as a canary in the coalmine. For instance, when Bitcoin scares, and it scares easy right now, the index usually follows. As you can discover on FinTwit and elsewhere, BTCUSD above $20k and moving up is a useful indicator of risk-on for now. Below $20k, risk off.</p><p>So in our view, if the present short term rally in BTC moves up and rolls over, at the rollover point we believe that can flag a pending rollover in SPY too.</p><p>Incidentally, we believe BTC can drop <i>a lot</i> once it rolls over. Its correction off of the Covid highs looks incomplete to us.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd7e9ce0b9b0574e5d67265f1051bae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTCUSD Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>Being an instrument of pure sentiment, with no reality to it at all - no earnings, no fundamental tether to anything, BTC can be charted very well with sentimental tools like Elliott Waves and Fibonacci levels. If you look at the chart above which runs from the 2018 lows, you have again some moves that fit the patterns very well. Wave 1 up, ends just below the 0.786 retrace at the Covid lows for a Wave 2 low. Then a HUGE Wave 3 up - hitting the 5.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1 almost to the dollar - a Wave 4 down then a final Wave 5 higher. After a full 5 wave impulsive move like that, it&#39;s common to see a three-wave A-B-C correction and common too for A=C i.e. the price drop in the A leg is equal in the C leg before a bottom is reached. BTC hasn&#39;t achieved that yet. A=C would be satisfied around $12k which is also where the first major high volume node sits on the volume profile (in other words there was a lot of volume traded at that $12k and below price, a lot more than in the upper reaches of the recent price range; that suggests you have holders more likely to defend $12k as support than $20k as support). So at some point we would say, BTC is going to take another big hit and that&#39;s not positive for SPY.</p><p>Ether by the way tells a slightly different story and may lead BTC&#39;s recovery.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff7b4a3384516edf55dc8cb797d86ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>ETHUSD Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>So far ETHUSD has bottomed at the 0.786 retrace of the whole move up since the 2018 lows<i>and</i>that bottom satisfied the A=C condition, to within a few dollars in fact.</p><p><b>So What Does All This Mean For Stocks?</b></p><p>In our<i>Growth Investor Pro</i>service and indeed in staff personal accounts we have been moving to risk-on at the recent lows. We&#39;ve closed profitable short positions in XLE, USO and WEAT; taken profits in volatility (UVXY), cashed profitable long positions in inverse ETFs such SQQQ and SPXS, and closed short positions in QQQ. We recently opened a new TQQQ position, averaged down our ETHE in-price, averaged down our PINS in-price on news of the Elliott stake, averaged down in ARKW and OKTA and so forth. We think these long positions can pay off but we are watching the above levels and indicators very carefully indeed and expect to dial risk down some if SPY and BTC keep moving up. Our conclusion for stocks right now is, work out your levels ahead of time, stay on your toes, don&#39;t be complacent with gains, and practice the ability to become bullish or bearish depending on what the indicators are telling you, not what your cavedwelling limbic system would have you do!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Will The Market Swoon Ever End?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Will The Market Swoon Ever End?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 17:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523935-spy-will-market-swoon-ever-end><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe selloff in the S&P and the Nasdaq since November last year has been a textbook example of controlled demolition.No limit-down days, no Vix-spike, no panicky retail running for the door. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523935-spy-will-market-swoon-ever-end\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523935-spy-will-market-swoon-ever-end","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2252253318","content_text":"SummaryThe selloff in the S&P and the Nasdaq since November last year has been a textbook example of controlled demolition.No limit-down days, no Vix-spike, no panicky retail running for the door. Just a never-ending grind-down.Will it ever end? We think the answer is more complicated than it first appears. But we don't think it's a magical mystery tour.We believe the market can be charted quite well and key levels identified ahead of time.  We also believe crypto can be used as a canary in the coalmine.For now, we believe SPY warrants a Hold rating; we explain below the triggers that we believe justify turning more bullish or bearish.A Message From Outside The MatrixThe journey of the inquisitive investor is a lifelong one. In short trousers you may learn about company fundamentals and the import thereof. Earnings, earnings per share, p/e multiples, all that sort of thing. As you progress you begin to factor macro data into your work. GDP numbers, inflation, rates and blah. If you are notverycareful then you begin to ossify in your thinking. You see linear, directive relationships between earnings and stock prices, where only influential relationships exist. You come to expect that if inflation does X, rates will do Y, and stocks will do Z. And most of all you become locked into a way of thinking about a market trend. When it's going up, it's going up forever. And when down? Down forever.None of this is your fault. Your problem-solving conscious brain is looking for a linear equation to solve for making money, in the same way that its prehistoric antecedent learned that there are linear equations for finding shelter and food. (Cavedweller 101: always look both ways out the front of the cave door before heading out, lest a sneaky predator deems you lunch). And your limbic brain, in an opioid haze most of the time, cannot be relied upon since it favors having you run towards the gunfire or away from it in equal measure, and an autonomic shot of the wrong corticosteroid at the wrong time can cause you to become hero or zero without any conscious input on your part.This is why the best way to read markets is with a big dose of cynicism, a calm demeanor, and an understanding that unless you be J P Morgan himself, most folks are just there to be buffetted this way and that by the market. As far as the major indices go, in their options, futures or ETF clothing, you have in your favor that they are generally too big to fail for very long, that they are highly liquid, and that they are Playground Number One for Big Money who likes nothing better than a game of cat and mouse with Joe P. Retail. And taken together, that all means that the most popular index of all, the S&P 500, can be played using pure sentiment as the gauge. Reality need never feature.Fortunately you have tools available to model not-reality and you can use those tools to build a more likely outlook for stocks than your common-or-garden earnings forecasts. Technical analysis tools are, of course, simply ways to measure sentiment. You can call them something more scientific if you like, but really all they are trying to do is pattern recognition. Every TA tool says, well, usually when a security moves likethisin the past it moves likethatin the future. Beyond that, the skill is in the practitioner.Will The S&P 500 Go Up Now?Here's how the S&P 500 - using its proxy ETF, SPY - looks through the lens of a common TA tool, the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci method. Using this tool can help you prepare emotionally and financially for the trend you happen to find the market in. And this can help you prepare for trend reversals - which are the moments when Big Money truly burns small accounts, pausing only to giggle whilst sailing off into the sunset - literally - whilst grasping big chunks of folks' 401(k)s.Take a brief look at the chart and then we'll walk you through it.SPY Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)If you were sat in Fibonacci Wave 101 right now (this is a class we will teach one day, but we are only accepting Matrix-dwellers as applicants in order to maximize our own entertainment), and you knew nothing about anything, you had no Twitter, you didn't know who Bullard, Powell & Co were (maybe a law firm?), you didn't ever leave your desk to buy anything so you hadn't noticed inflation?You would say, well, that's a textbook stock chart right there. Youwouldn'tsay, gosh, will this selling ever end? And you wouldn't have been saying in 2020-2021, why, these pesky kids are crazy with their never-ending YOLO buying. You would just say, huh, fake chart, too perfect with the reversals, show me a real life one and we can talk about it.But thisisa real life chart.Here goes.From the 2016 lows, SPY puts in a Wave 1 up, peaking right before the Covid crash.From that Wave 1 high in the $340 zone comes a 0.786 retracement of the Wave 1 up, troughing at around $219. A 0.786 retrace is an important Fibonacci level and it is atextbookElliott Wave 2 down.From the Covid lows we get a Wave 3 up which peaks right around the 1.618 extension of Wave 1, which is to say around $480. Read any Elliott Wave guide and see how long a Wave 3 usually is. Answer, very often indeed they are 1.618x the length of Wave 1. As SPY hit $480 back in Q4 last year we called \"Yikes, The Top\" in ourGrowth Investor Proservice, because the index simply could not push up above that 1.618 extension, no matter how many times it tried.We then moved into a Wave 4 down, which has so far respected two Fibonacci retracement levels - the 0.236 retrace (around $419) and the 0.382 retrace (around $380). SPY tried to hold $419 as support back in February and March, failed, then treated it as resistance in May and June. The June selloff plunged below the $380 level then pushed up against it as resistance, and the index is currently thinking about whether to turn that level into support.If, big if, SPY moves up from here, then a reversal at the 0.786 for a Wave 2 low, at the 1.618 for a Wave 3 high, and a 0.382 for the Wave 4 low, is absolute textbook.Now, knowing these potential reversal levels and knowing which wave you are in can help you train your brain to deal with the situation.As the limit-down days hit in the Covid crisis you would say, well, this looks like a Wave 2 down, a brutal selloff in no time at all where shock & awe fill the air around the watercooler. Well, that and a poisonous miasma of viral load. As the 0.786 approached you would say, well, itmightplunge right past that but there's a good chance it doesn't, so I'll start thinking about buying the index again.As the 1.618 extension served as resistance on several occasions late last year, you would likely have concluded, well, it really doesn't want to go much higher - and if you looked at the QQQ and saw that it had put in a 2.618 extension at this time and was putting in a similar headbanging performance - you might have agreed further with yourself.And into the selloff this year you would have the 0.236 and the 0.382 and the 0.5 (that's $350 for SPY, plus or minus) in your sights. You would also be saying to yourself, this is a Wave 4. It's not a Shock and Awe Wave 2. It's a Slow Bleedout, Controlled Demolition Wave 4. You would say, we had a deep Wave 2 correction soprobablyWave 4 won't be so deep.Probablyit will be between the 0.382 and the 0.5 that it reverses.Well, where we sit right now in SPY is that the ETF has been down to between the 0.382 and the 0.5 retracements, reaching a local low of around $362 in mid-June. And since then it has pushed up above the 0.382 level of $380 and is thinking about holding over that level.Has The Market Stopped Selling Yet?Well, the easy answer is, on a textbook larger-degree 5 waves up off of the 2016 lows then the market looks set to reach new highs in a final Wave 5 up. Using that lens, the next move up would top out somewhere above $480 and the market would then make a deep correction - much deeper than we have experienced this year - for some months, maybe more than a year. The logic being the 5 waves up off the 2016 lows would form a large Wave 1 and the subsequent large Wave 2 we could expect to bottom between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement of that Wave 1 up. That's somewhere between $250-300 for SPY. So, if this textbook chart pattern continues, you have your levels. Risk on until SPY approaches $480, then start dialing back the risk until SPY rolls over in a convincing fashion, by which time the prudent investor will already have assembled a basket of protective instruments - puts, short index positions, and so on.Unfortunately we think it's a little more complicated than that. Sticking purely to chart analysis, and ignoring the whys and wherefores, the counterargument to the above is that the market is simply in a downtrend, and whilst that $380 can surely act as support, it will be merely until SPY hits its head on the resistance defined by that downtrend.Like this:SPY Chart II (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)So even if SPY does keep pushing up, we may run into resistance at +/-$400. Then, and only then, can we know whether truly sentiment will trump what lies outside the window. If it does, we should see SPY climb back up to that 0.236 retrace ($418ish) and beyond. And if not - a move back down to $380 and below, maybe as low as $350 (which is that 0.5 retracement of the post-Covid move up).As always, nobody can know for sure and all you can do is watch in real time to know when it's safe to be risk-on and when best to dial back. In our Growth Investor Pro service our house stance is as follows:Short-term bullish on the market until SPY approaches the $395-400 range, in which case we believe cashing in gains and de-grossing positions would be prudent. If SPY pushes up and out of that downward channel, and turns the upper resistance line into support, long positions can be safely added to in our view, in anticipation of a further rise. But if the downward channel persists and we're simply in a modest rally within a continuing bear market, time to keep cash and/or add to short positions. In our service we find the short levered index ETFs are useful instruments for this.Other Useful Indicators Include CryptoCorroborating evidence and other indicators of risk appetite? You can look at the Nasdaq if you like, but in truth whilst the timeframes are a little shortened and the price moves a little amplified vs. the S&P, the two move very much in concert. So QQQ doesn't add much visibility to the mix.Crypto however we find useful as a canary in the coalmine. For instance, when Bitcoin scares, and it scares easy right now, the index usually follows. As you can discover on FinTwit and elsewhere, BTCUSD above $20k and moving up is a useful indicator of risk-on for now. Below $20k, risk off.So in our view, if the present short term rally in BTC moves up and rolls over, at the rollover point we believe that can flag a pending rollover in SPY too.Incidentally, we believe BTC can drop a lot once it rolls over. Its correction off of the Covid highs looks incomplete to us.BTCUSD Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)Being an instrument of pure sentiment, with no reality to it at all - no earnings, no fundamental tether to anything, BTC can be charted very well with sentimental tools like Elliott Waves and Fibonacci levels. If you look at the chart above which runs from the 2018 lows, you have again some moves that fit the patterns very well. Wave 1 up, ends just below the 0.786 retrace at the Covid lows for a Wave 2 low. Then a HUGE Wave 3 up - hitting the 5.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1 almost to the dollar - a Wave 4 down then a final Wave 5 higher. After a full 5 wave impulsive move like that, it's common to see a three-wave A-B-C correction and common too for A=C i.e. the price drop in the A leg is equal in the C leg before a bottom is reached. BTC hasn't achieved that yet. A=C would be satisfied around $12k which is also where the first major high volume node sits on the volume profile (in other words there was a lot of volume traded at that $12k and below price, a lot more than in the upper reaches of the recent price range; that suggests you have holders more likely to defend $12k as support than $20k as support). So at some point we would say, BTC is going to take another big hit and that's not positive for SPY.Ether by the way tells a slightly different story and may lead BTC's recovery.ETHUSD Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)So far ETHUSD has bottomed at the 0.786 retrace of the whole move up since the 2018 lowsandthat bottom satisfied the A=C condition, to within a few dollars in fact.So What Does All This Mean For Stocks?In ourGrowth Investor Proservice and indeed in staff personal accounts we have been moving to risk-on at the recent lows. We've closed profitable short positions in XLE, USO and WEAT; taken profits in volatility (UVXY), cashed profitable long positions in inverse ETFs such SQQQ and SPXS, and closed short positions in QQQ. We recently opened a new TQQQ position, averaged down our ETHE in-price, averaged down our PINS in-price on news of the Elliott stake, averaged down in ARKW and OKTA and so forth. We think these long positions can pay off but we are watching the above levels and indicators very carefully indeed and expect to dial risk down some if SPY and BTC keep moving up. Our conclusion for stocks right now is, work out your levels ahead of time, stay on your toes, don't be complacent with gains, and practice the ability to become bullish or bearish depending on what the indicators are telling you, not what your cavedwelling limbic system would have you do!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077021581,"gmtCreate":1658442844443,"gmtModify":1676536157558,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077021581","repostId":"1146734237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146734237","pubTimestamp":1658416042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146734237?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Q2'22 Preview: What Investors Can Expect","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146734237","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir will report its second quarter in three weeks.Recent contract wins could reignite go","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir will report its second quarter in three weeks.</li><li>Recent contract wins could reignite government-sourced revenue growth going forward.</li><li>Most important figures for Q2&#39;22 will be Palantir’s customer monetization rate and customer net-adds, especially in the commercial business.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1337a14721b40a7c4630848fd86793c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Michael Vi</span></p><p>In less than a month Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will submit its earnings card for the second-quarter, which, if the company executed well against its growth targets, could potentially be a catalyst for a the initiation of a new up-leg inshares of Palantir. I last covered Palantir in June While I expect Palantir’s second-quarter revenues to slightly exceed the firm’s Q2’22 guidance, the company will likely have made further progress regarding its customer monetization rate, especially in the commercial business where all of the firm’s momentum is right now. I believe Palantir will submit a solid earnings card in August and the firm could sail past low earnings expectations.</p><p><b>Palantir’s Q2’22: Guidance versus expectations</b></p><p>For the second-quarter, Palantir has said it expects to see base case revenues of $470M and adjusted operating margins of 20%. The revenue guidance implies 5.3% quarter over quarter growth, but revenues could come in better than expected if the company on-boarded a good amount of new paying clients in the commercial business. I anticipate revenues between $470-475M as the second-quarter likely saw improving customer monetization as well as a decent number of customer net-adds.</p><p>Regarding adjusted operating margins, Palantir historically submitted margin expectations that were low relative to actual results. In Q1’22, Palantir guided for Q2’22 adjusted operating margins of 23% while actual margins were 26% and FY 2021 guidance regarding margins was also conservative. For this reason, I expect Palantir to report slightly better adjusted operating margins, between 22-24% for Q2’22, in part because I expect strong net retention rates as well as continual increases in customer product spend.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae0d8c2bc654db934a8c0659f605d0ee\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p><b>Customer monetization could make a difference for Palantir</b></p><p>While new customer net-adds are an important way to broaden its revenue base, it is key for Palantir to optimize revenue generation from its existing client book.</p><p>Palantir’s commercial revenue growth accelerated for the fifth straight quarter in Q1’22 and the firm added 37 net new customers in this segment, after tripling the commercial customer count in FY 2021. Palantir serviced 184 commercial customers at the end of Q1’22, showing 207% year over year growth. Across Palantir’s government and commercial businesses, the company had 40 customer net-adds in Q’22 and this momentum is likely to have persisted in the second-quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36d0079b19aac177847fce51c57c44ed\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>My expectations for Palantir’s Q2’22 are:</p><ul><li>136-140% year over year US commercial revenue growth, sixth straight quarter of top line acceleration</li><li>A total customer count across government and private enterprise segments exceeding 300, for the first time ever, implying a customer net-add of at least 23 accounts</li><li>Commercial customer count exceeding 200, for the first time ever, implying at least 16 net-adds in Q2&#39;22</li><li>Average revenue per top twenty customer growing from $45M to $47M, showing 4.4% quarter over quarter growth, driven by US commercial momentum</li><li>Continual quarter over quarter growth in ACV (average account value) and billings</li></ul><p>Average revenue for the largest 20 customers grew 24% year over year to $45M in Q1&#39;22 and I believe that Palantir could really surprise here for the second-quarter due to clients having shown a willingness to increase spending on Palantir’s products and services. Anything that indicates improving monetization (higher average product spend, large number of customer net-adds and growing net retention) could push shares of Palantir into a new up-leg, but a sizable revenue beat could also achieve this.</p><p><b>Low EPS expectations</b></p><p>In each of the last two quarters Palantir’s actual EPS was 50% below its expected EPS: $.02 per-share compared to $.04 per-share -- meaning the software analytics company under-performed estimates in two quarters in a row. In each case, shares of Palantir plunged after the earnings card was delivered, with investors taking out their frustration on Palantir’s shares.</p><p>For the second-quarter, the prediction is for Palantir to have EPS of $.03 and predictions have fallen nine times in the last 90 days, meaning the market doesn&#39;t expect much from Palantir. An earnings beat in August, potentially driven by improving customer monetization in the commercial business, could create some desperately needed upside momentum for Palantir.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911bd934e283be62ffc078fb5f474986\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><b>New U.S. Army Contract Win</b></p><p>Just before the end of the second-quarter, Palantir announced that it was one of two companies that was awarded a U.S. Army contract to build a prototype for TITAN, which stands for Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node. TITAN is a system that consolidates a large amount of data to assist long range precision targeting missions. With more and more sensor data to sift through, the U.S. Army is going to draw on artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for threat identification and tracking… and Palantir stands ready to support the effort. The Army contract will last through 2023 and is worth $36M. The most recent contract win comes after Palantir was awarded a $53.9M contract increase by the U.S. Space Systems Command at the end of May which brought the SSC contract value to $175.4M. Contracts like these are the reason why I believe Palantir could reasonably see an acceleration of revenue growth in the non-commercial business as well going forward.</p><p><b>Risks with Palantir</b></p><p>The two biggest risks for Palantir are a slowdown in revenue growth, especially in the U.S. commercial business which is driving the company’s entire financial performance right now, and shareholder dilution related to Palantir’s high levels of stock based compensation.</p><p>What would change my mind about Palantir is if the firm’s second-quarter earnings showed deteriorating metrics in customer monetization rates, a drop-off in customer net-adds or declining average revenue per customer.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>Palantir has been on a wild ride lately and it hasn’t been a good one. Shares of the software analytics company are in a long term down-trend and have skidded below $10 in July. To get Palantir to move into an up-leg, the software analytics company will have to deliver substantive business improvements in August… a sizable EPS beat, growing average revenues per customer (better monetization) and the on-boarding of a large number of new clients in the commercial business could do the trick for Palantir. I expect the company to confirm its 30% revenue growth target for FY 2022 while operating margins are likely going to come in better than expected, like they did in the past!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Q2'22 Preview: What Investors Can Expect</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Q2'22 Preview: What Investors Can Expect\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524353-palantir-stock-q2-2022-earnings-preview-what-investors-expect><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir will report its second quarter in three weeks.Recent contract wins could reignite government-sourced revenue growth going forward.Most important figures for Q2'22 will be Palantir’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524353-palantir-stock-q2-2022-earnings-preview-what-investors-expect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524353-palantir-stock-q2-2022-earnings-preview-what-investors-expect","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146734237","content_text":"SummaryPalantir will report its second quarter in three weeks.Recent contract wins could reignite government-sourced revenue growth going forward.Most important figures for Q2'22 will be Palantir’s customer monetization rate and customer net-adds, especially in the commercial business.Michael ViIn less than a month Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will submit its earnings card for the second-quarter, which, if the company executed well against its growth targets, could potentially be a catalyst for a the initiation of a new up-leg inshares of Palantir. I last covered Palantir in June While I expect Palantir’s second-quarter revenues to slightly exceed the firm’s Q2’22 guidance, the company will likely have made further progress regarding its customer monetization rate, especially in the commercial business where all of the firm’s momentum is right now. I believe Palantir will submit a solid earnings card in August and the firm could sail past low earnings expectations.Palantir’s Q2’22: Guidance versus expectationsFor the second-quarter, Palantir has said it expects to see base case revenues of $470M and adjusted operating margins of 20%. The revenue guidance implies 5.3% quarter over quarter growth, but revenues could come in better than expected if the company on-boarded a good amount of new paying clients in the commercial business. I anticipate revenues between $470-475M as the second-quarter likely saw improving customer monetization as well as a decent number of customer net-adds.Regarding adjusted operating margins, Palantir historically submitted margin expectations that were low relative to actual results. In Q1’22, Palantir guided for Q2’22 adjusted operating margins of 23% while actual margins were 26% and FY 2021 guidance regarding margins was also conservative. For this reason, I expect Palantir to report slightly better adjusted operating margins, between 22-24% for Q2’22, in part because I expect strong net retention rates as well as continual increases in customer product spend.PalantirCustomer monetization could make a difference for PalantirWhile new customer net-adds are an important way to broaden its revenue base, it is key for Palantir to optimize revenue generation from its existing client book.Palantir’s commercial revenue growth accelerated for the fifth straight quarter in Q1’22 and the firm added 37 net new customers in this segment, after tripling the commercial customer count in FY 2021. Palantir serviced 184 commercial customers at the end of Q1’22, showing 207% year over year growth. Across Palantir’s government and commercial businesses, the company had 40 customer net-adds in Q’22 and this momentum is likely to have persisted in the second-quarter.PalantirMy expectations for Palantir’s Q2’22 are:136-140% year over year US commercial revenue growth, sixth straight quarter of top line accelerationA total customer count across government and private enterprise segments exceeding 300, for the first time ever, implying a customer net-add of at least 23 accountsCommercial customer count exceeding 200, for the first time ever, implying at least 16 net-adds in Q2'22Average revenue per top twenty customer growing from $45M to $47M, showing 4.4% quarter over quarter growth, driven by US commercial momentumContinual quarter over quarter growth in ACV (average account value) and billingsAverage revenue for the largest 20 customers grew 24% year over year to $45M in Q1'22 and I believe that Palantir could really surprise here for the second-quarter due to clients having shown a willingness to increase spending on Palantir’s products and services. Anything that indicates improving monetization (higher average product spend, large number of customer net-adds and growing net retention) could push shares of Palantir into a new up-leg, but a sizable revenue beat could also achieve this.Low EPS expectationsIn each of the last two quarters Palantir’s actual EPS was 50% below its expected EPS: $.02 per-share compared to $.04 per-share -- meaning the software analytics company under-performed estimates in two quarters in a row. In each case, shares of Palantir plunged after the earnings card was delivered, with investors taking out their frustration on Palantir’s shares.For the second-quarter, the prediction is for Palantir to have EPS of $.03 and predictions have fallen nine times in the last 90 days, meaning the market doesn't expect much from Palantir. An earnings beat in August, potentially driven by improving customer monetization in the commercial business, could create some desperately needed upside momentum for Palantir.Seeking AlphaNew U.S. Army Contract WinJust before the end of the second-quarter, Palantir announced that it was one of two companies that was awarded a U.S. Army contract to build a prototype for TITAN, which stands for Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node. TITAN is a system that consolidates a large amount of data to assist long range precision targeting missions. With more and more sensor data to sift through, the U.S. Army is going to draw on artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for threat identification and tracking… and Palantir stands ready to support the effort. The Army contract will last through 2023 and is worth $36M. The most recent contract win comes after Palantir was awarded a $53.9M contract increase by the U.S. Space Systems Command at the end of May which brought the SSC contract value to $175.4M. Contracts like these are the reason why I believe Palantir could reasonably see an acceleration of revenue growth in the non-commercial business as well going forward.Risks with PalantirThe two biggest risks for Palantir are a slowdown in revenue growth, especially in the U.S. commercial business which is driving the company’s entire financial performance right now, and shareholder dilution related to Palantir’s high levels of stock based compensation.What would change my mind about Palantir is if the firm’s second-quarter earnings showed deteriorating metrics in customer monetization rates, a drop-off in customer net-adds or declining average revenue per customer.Final thoughtsPalantir has been on a wild ride lately and it hasn’t been a good one. Shares of the software analytics company are in a long term down-trend and have skidded below $10 in July. To get Palantir to move into an up-leg, the software analytics company will have to deliver substantive business improvements in August… a sizable EPS beat, growing average revenues per customer (better monetization) and the on-boarding of a large number of new clients in the commercial business could do the trick for Palantir. I expect the company to confirm its 30% revenue growth target for FY 2022 while operating margins are likely going to come in better than expected, like they did in the past!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9070048169,"gmtCreate":1656987306651,"gmtModify":1676535927941,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9070048169","repostId":"9047736113","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9047736113,"gmtCreate":1656977404132,"gmtModify":1676535923963,"author":{"id":"4109899949486810","authorId":"4109899949486810","name":"Tantiad","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/904c84540121050350274cfae4d99f1e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4109899949486810","authorIdStr":"4109899949486810"},"themes":[],"title":"Kyiv lays out $750bn ‘recovery plan’","htmlText":"Kyiv lays out $750bn ‘recovery plan’Reconstructing Ukraine is expected to cost $750bn, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said, adding that seized Russian assets should be used pay for the recovery.President Vladimir Putin congratulates Russian troops on “liberating” the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk.Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Russia will respond in kind to Bulgaria’s expulsion of 70 Russian diplomatsLuhansk governor says Russia will shift the focus of its war in Ukraine to trying to seize all of the Donetsk region after capturing LuhanskUkraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledges to retake lost territory, including the city of Lysychansk after Russia claimed full control of the Luhansk region.","listText":"Kyiv lays out $750bn ‘recovery plan’Reconstructing Ukraine is expected to cost $750bn, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said, adding that seized Russian assets should be used pay for the recovery.President Vladimir Putin congratulates Russian troops on “liberating” the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk.Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Russia will respond in kind to Bulgaria’s expulsion of 70 Russian diplomatsLuhansk governor says Russia will shift the focus of its war in Ukraine to trying to seize all of the Donetsk region after capturing LuhanskUkraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledges to retake lost territory, including the city of Lysychansk after Russia claimed full control of the Luhansk region.","text":"Kyiv lays out $750bn ‘recovery plan’Reconstructing Ukraine is expected to cost $750bn, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said, adding that seized Russian assets should be used pay for the recovery.President Vladimir Putin congratulates Russian troops on “liberating” the eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk.Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says Russia will respond in kind to Bulgaria’s expulsion of 70 Russian diplomatsLuhansk governor says Russia will shift the focus of its war in Ukraine to trying to seize all of the Donetsk region after capturing LuhanskUkraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pledges to retake lost territory, including the city of Lysychansk after Russia claimed full control of the Luhansk region.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9047736113","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008401241,"gmtCreate":1641508319820,"gmtModify":1676533621605,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008401241","repostId":"1137932427","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137932427","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641482309,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137932427?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-06 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Vaccine Stocks Slid in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137932427","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Vaccine stocks slid in morning trading. BioNTech SE, Moderna, Pfizer, Histogenics and Novavax fell b","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Vaccine stocks slid in morning trading. BioNTech SE, Moderna, Pfizer, Histogenics and Novavax fell between 1% and 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a275eb7fdd60e6ddf615caa2e0c8a763\" tg-width=\"285\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vaccine Stocks Slid in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVaccine Stocks Slid in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-06 23:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Vaccine stocks slid in morning trading. BioNTech SE, Moderna, Pfizer, Histogenics and Novavax fell between 1% and 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a275eb7fdd60e6ddf615caa2e0c8a763\" tg-width=\"285\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137932427","content_text":"Vaccine stocks slid in morning trading. BioNTech SE, Moderna, Pfizer, Histogenics and Novavax fell between 1% and 4%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001761563,"gmtCreate":1641334314882,"gmtModify":1676533597778,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001761563","repostId":"2200406435","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200406435","pubTimestamp":1641310325,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200406435?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-04 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Wildly Undervalued Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200406435","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Strong free cash flow and high growth rates are a winning combo.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>One of the hardest lessons for me as a new investor was to stop filtering out great, high-quality stocks that looked expensive by most traditional valuation metrics. Instead, I sought standard &#34;value&#34; and found companies that were incredibly cheap, but often seriously broken, that unfortunately deserved their discounted valuations.</p><p>By simply accepting that most premium stocks trade at expensive-looking valuations, I entered the land of long-term investing and ultimately multibagger potential.</p><p>Today we will study <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM), <b>Pinterest</b> (NYSE:PINS), and <b>DocuSign</b> (NASDAQ:DOCU), three stocks that fit this expensive-looking mold, yet could be wildly undervalued when looking out over the next decade, thanks to their high revenue growth and strong free cash flow (FCF) generation.</p><h2>High growth at intriguing valuations</h2><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><th></th><th>Market Cap</th><th>Levered FCF</th><th>P/FCF Ratio</th><th>Revenue Growth YOY</th></tr><tr><td>Zoom Video</td><td>$55 billion</td><td>$1.51 billion</td><td>36</td><td>100%</td></tr><tr><td>Pinterest</td><td>$24 billion</td><td>$470 million</td><td>51</td><td>76%</td></tr><tr><td>DocuSign</td><td>$29 billion</td><td>$753 million</td><td>39</td><td>51%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: Yahoo! Finance and CMLViz statistics. Note that Levered FCF and Revenue Growth are using trailing 12-month figures. YOY = year over year. FCF = free cash flow. P/FCF = price-to-FCF.</p><p>While highly unscientific, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of my favorite ways to measure a stock&#39;s growth potential versus its current price is to compare year-over-year revenue growth with its price-to-FCF ratio. As shown in the table above, Zoom, Pinterest, and DocuSign all have a growth rate higher than their FCF multiples.</p><p>Whenever a stock&#39;s growth rate is higher than its FCF multiple, it catches my attention, highlighting the beautiful combination of solid sales growth with reasonably priced cash generation. With that in mind, let&#39;s look at my three recommendations.</p><h2>1. Zoom Video Communications</h2><p>First up today is the fastest growing and cheapest valuation of the trio, Zoom Video Communications. Because its share price has dropped nearly 50% over the last six months amid decelerating sales growth, Zoom looks attractively valued compared to the $1.5 billion in free cash flow it created over the previous 12 months.</p><p>While its 100% revenue growth over the last 12 months will probably not repeat in 2022, its third-quarter growth of 35% year over year is more than enough to make its freshly discounted valuation appealing. Furthermore, with 14 consecutive quarters with a dollar-based net expansion (DBNE) rate above 130%, Zoom has demonstrated that its land-and-expand business model is firing on all cylinders.</p><p>DBNE is a great way to measure increased product use by existing customers, despite not accounting for customer churn. For Zoom, this 130% rate is highly promising as it shows that it is getting its foot in the door with its famous Meetings product and upselling customers on newer products, such as Zoom Rooms and Zoom Phone. Should the company&#39;s DBNE continue at these levels, it will signal that its business model is still succeeding.</p><p>Furthermore, with international sales only accounting for 33% of Zoom&#39;s total revenue, its global ambitions are still in their infancy. This international growth runway, paired with the company&#39;s strong FCF and recently discounted share price, makes Zoom a great core holding for the next decade.</p><h2>2. Pinterest</h2><p>Next up, we have Pinterest with its inspiration-creating platform and newly developed FCF generation. Unfortunately, despite the promise of these positive cash flows, Pinterest&#39;s stock has dropped over 50% in the last six months, due to a rumored abandoned acquisition by <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b> and a decline in monthly active users (MAUs).</p><p>But two key things are happening behind the scenes for Pinterest, making today&#39;s valuation very tempting.</p><p>First, the company&#39;s fledgling shopping features are starting to take off, with product searches up over 100% for the third quarter, year over year. Better yet, members of the all-important Generation Z demographic (ages 9 to 24) increased their product searches on the shop tab by over 200% for the third quarter.</p><p>Second, despite having four times the number of international MAUs than in the U.S., the international segment only accounts for 21% of Pinterest&#39;s overall revenue. This is due to the massive gap in average revenue per user (ARPU) between U.S. and international users, which is $5.55 and $0.38, respectively.</p><p>This gap is essential for investors to watch as Pinterest launched its shopping features in seven key international markets during the third quarter: Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Brazil, and Mexico. As these markets mature, along with Pinterest&#39;s shopping features in general, investors should see this ARPU gap between the U.S. and international narrow, bringing strong monetization to the company&#39;s global footprint.</p><h2>3. DocuSign</h2><p>Famous for its e-signature product, DocuSign is on a mission to prove that it is more than just a one-trick pony. Moving beyond its e-signature dominance, the company has its eyes set on a broader target market that it hopes to serve through its Agreement Cloud, which consists of four segments: prepare, sign, act, and manage.</p><p>With its Agreement Cloud, DocuSign intends to parlay its leadership in e-signatures into becoming the leader in automated end-to-end agreement processes. While the company does not break out numbers for each segment of the Agreement Cloud, we can get a good idea of its ongoing success through DocuSign&#39;s 121% dollar-based net retention (DBNR) rate.</p><p>DBNR shows the rate at which existing customers are expanding their use of the company&#39;s products. Since DBNR includes customer churn, a figure above 120% is exceptional. So DocuSign&#39;s track record of being above this mark for six consecutive quarters is very impressive. It highlights the potential that might be building within the company&#39;s broader Agreement Cloud ambitions. And that makes DocuSign&#39;s 30% share-price drop in the last month an appealing entry point for new investors.</p><p>DocuSign already has a 17% FCF margin, which makes it look like another discounted, but strong, cash-generating stock to buy and hold for the next decade.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Wildly Undervalued Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Wildly Undervalued Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-04 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/04/3-wildly-undervalued-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-th/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One of the hardest lessons for me as a new investor was to stop filtering out great, high-quality stocks that looked expensive by most traditional valuation metrics. Instead, I sought standard \"value\"...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/04/3-wildly-undervalued-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-th/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","FCF":"第一联邦金融","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4525":"远程办公概念","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","DOCU":"Docusign","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4528":"SaaS概念","ZM":"Zoom","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/04/3-wildly-undervalued-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-th/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200406435","content_text":"One of the hardest lessons for me as a new investor was to stop filtering out great, high-quality stocks that looked expensive by most traditional valuation metrics. Instead, I sought standard \"value\" and found companies that were incredibly cheap, but often seriously broken, that unfortunately deserved their discounted valuations.By simply accepting that most premium stocks trade at expensive-looking valuations, I entered the land of long-term investing and ultimately multibagger potential.Today we will study Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), and DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU), three stocks that fit this expensive-looking mold, yet could be wildly undervalued when looking out over the next decade, thanks to their high revenue growth and strong free cash flow (FCF) generation.High growth at intriguing valuationsMarket CapLevered FCFP/FCF RatioRevenue Growth YOYZoom Video$55 billion$1.51 billion36100%Pinterest$24 billion$470 million5176%DocuSign$29 billion$753 million3951%Data source: Yahoo! Finance and CMLViz statistics. Note that Levered FCF and Revenue Growth are using trailing 12-month figures. YOY = year over year. FCF = free cash flow. P/FCF = price-to-FCF.While highly unscientific, one of my favorite ways to measure a stock's growth potential versus its current price is to compare year-over-year revenue growth with its price-to-FCF ratio. As shown in the table above, Zoom, Pinterest, and DocuSign all have a growth rate higher than their FCF multiples.Whenever a stock's growth rate is higher than its FCF multiple, it catches my attention, highlighting the beautiful combination of solid sales growth with reasonably priced cash generation. With that in mind, let's look at my three recommendations.1. Zoom Video CommunicationsFirst up today is the fastest growing and cheapest valuation of the trio, Zoom Video Communications. Because its share price has dropped nearly 50% over the last six months amid decelerating sales growth, Zoom looks attractively valued compared to the $1.5 billion in free cash flow it created over the previous 12 months.While its 100% revenue growth over the last 12 months will probably not repeat in 2022, its third-quarter growth of 35% year over year is more than enough to make its freshly discounted valuation appealing. Furthermore, with 14 consecutive quarters with a dollar-based net expansion (DBNE) rate above 130%, Zoom has demonstrated that its land-and-expand business model is firing on all cylinders.DBNE is a great way to measure increased product use by existing customers, despite not accounting for customer churn. For Zoom, this 130% rate is highly promising as it shows that it is getting its foot in the door with its famous Meetings product and upselling customers on newer products, such as Zoom Rooms and Zoom Phone. Should the company's DBNE continue at these levels, it will signal that its business model is still succeeding.Furthermore, with international sales only accounting for 33% of Zoom's total revenue, its global ambitions are still in their infancy. This international growth runway, paired with the company's strong FCF and recently discounted share price, makes Zoom a great core holding for the next decade.2. PinterestNext up, we have Pinterest with its inspiration-creating platform and newly developed FCF generation. Unfortunately, despite the promise of these positive cash flows, Pinterest's stock has dropped over 50% in the last six months, due to a rumored abandoned acquisition by PayPal and a decline in monthly active users (MAUs).But two key things are happening behind the scenes for Pinterest, making today's valuation very tempting.First, the company's fledgling shopping features are starting to take off, with product searches up over 100% for the third quarter, year over year. Better yet, members of the all-important Generation Z demographic (ages 9 to 24) increased their product searches on the shop tab by over 200% for the third quarter.Second, despite having four times the number of international MAUs than in the U.S., the international segment only accounts for 21% of Pinterest's overall revenue. This is due to the massive gap in average revenue per user (ARPU) between U.S. and international users, which is $5.55 and $0.38, respectively.This gap is essential for investors to watch as Pinterest launched its shopping features in seven key international markets during the third quarter: Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Brazil, and Mexico. As these markets mature, along with Pinterest's shopping features in general, investors should see this ARPU gap between the U.S. and international narrow, bringing strong monetization to the company's global footprint.3. DocuSignFamous for its e-signature product, DocuSign is on a mission to prove that it is more than just a one-trick pony. Moving beyond its e-signature dominance, the company has its eyes set on a broader target market that it hopes to serve through its Agreement Cloud, which consists of four segments: prepare, sign, act, and manage.With its Agreement Cloud, DocuSign intends to parlay its leadership in e-signatures into becoming the leader in automated end-to-end agreement processes. While the company does not break out numbers for each segment of the Agreement Cloud, we can get a good idea of its ongoing success through DocuSign's 121% dollar-based net retention (DBNR) rate.DBNR shows the rate at which existing customers are expanding their use of the company's products. Since DBNR includes customer churn, a figure above 120% is exceptional. So DocuSign's track record of being above this mark for six consecutive quarters is very impressive. It highlights the potential that might be building within the company's broader Agreement Cloud ambitions. And that makes DocuSign's 30% share-price drop in the last month an appealing entry point for new investors.DocuSign already has a 17% FCF margin, which makes it look like another discounted, but strong, cash-generating stock to buy and hold for the next decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001663081,"gmtCreate":1641249279157,"gmtModify":1676533586716,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"9o","listText":"9o","text":"9o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001663081","repostId":"2200242374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200242374","pubTimestamp":1641222624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200242374?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200242374","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>I ended 2021 on a hot streak with my weekly column where I single out stocks to avoid in the week ahead. My three stocks to avoid last week were on the move -- as <b>AMC Entertainment</b> (NYSE:AMC), <b>GameStop </b>(NYSE:GME) and <b>Robinhood Markets </b>(NASDAQ:HOOD)<b> </b>were down 2%, 5%, and 6%, respectively -- averaging out to a 4.3% decline.</p><p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> rose 0.9% for the week, so I was the relative winner with my bearish calls for the eleventh week in a row. This week, I see <b>Constellation Brands </b>(NYSE:STZ), <b>GameStop </b>(NYSE:GME), and <b>SeaWorld Entertainment</b> (NYSE:SEAS) as stocks that you may want to consider steering clear from. Let&#39;s go over my reasons for the near-term pessimism.</p><h2>Constellation Brands</h2><p>There aren&#39;t a lot of companies reporting earnings this week, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that could prove problematic is Constellation Brands. The leading distributor of beer, wine, and heartier spirits offers up quarterly results on Thursday morning. The company behind Corona beers, Mondavi wines, Svedka vodka, and High West Whiskey hit a new all-time high on Friday.</p><p>You may think business is booming, given its buoyant shares that have soared 20% over the past four months, but you would be wrong. Revenue is expected to inch a mere 1% higher this fiscal year, and earnings have fallen short of analyst estimates in back-to-back quarters.</p><p>With a dominant share of the high-end beer market, I&#39;m not bearish on Constellation&#39;s long-term prospects. The rub this week is that the stock is at a new peak on uninspiring top-line growth and bad momentum with its recent bottom-line results. It&#39;s going to need a monster report on Thursday if it wants Wall Street to raise a toast to Constellation Brands.</p><h2>GameStop</h2><p>Picking GameStop for the third week in a row as a stock to avoid may seem to be a case of pushing my luck, but that&#39;s the kind of dedication diehard gamers should appreciate. GameStop is doing some things right, and later this month it will finish a fiscal year with positive top-line growth for the first time in four years.</p><p>The counter to that argument is that after back-to-back years of sales declines of more than 20% an uptick in the teens won&#39;t even get GameStop back to where it was two years ago. GameStop has nearly $6 billion in trailing revenue, but that&#39;s well shy of its peak of $9.5 billion nine years earlier.</p><p>The bullish case for the original meme stock made sense a year ago when short interest was greater than 100%. Today it rests at a yawn-worthy 11%. It&#39;s overvalued by most metrics, and it has posted larger-than-expected deficits in back-to-back quarters. Meme stock investors will probably move to something more shiny and new in 2022.</p><h2>SeaWorld Entertainment</h2><p>Last week I went for stocks with recent sharp declines, figuring that they would be under selling pressure as investors lock in losses for their 2021 taxes. It&#39;s January, and a lot of last year&#39;s dogs could bounce back this month. I screened for big winners, and out of the nearly 160 stocks with market caps of at least $1 billion that more than doubled in 2021, I tried to fish for one that I think could be susceptible in the near term. A stock I own nibbled on my hook.</p><p>I&#39;m a SeaWorld Entertainment investor, and a fan of how they&#39;ve been able to blend animal-themed exhibits with thrill rides and family attractions. However, I don&#39;t think SeaWorld should&#39;ve doubled last year. The world&#39;s largest theme park operator&#39;s stock actually declined in 2021, and now we have COVID-19 cases surging in all of the states where SeaWorld has a presence. SeaWorld likely had a strong holiday quarter, so I can see it moving higher in February, when it reports financial results. Between now and then it could be vulnerable to more negative pandemic updates.</p><p>If you&#39;re looking for safe stocks, you aren&#39;t likely to find them in Constellation Brands, GameStop, and SeaWorld Entertainment this week.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-03 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/03/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I ended 2021 on a hot streak with my weekly column where I single out stocks to avoid in the week ahead. My three stocks to avoid last week were on the move -- as AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/03/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood","GME":"游戏驿站","BK4539":"次新股","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","AMC":"AMC院线","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4169":"酿酒商与葡萄酒商","STZ":"星座品牌","BK4216":"消闲设施"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/03/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200242374","content_text":"I ended 2021 on a hot streak with my weekly column where I single out stocks to avoid in the week ahead. My three stocks to avoid last week were on the move -- as AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), GameStop (NYSE:GME) and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) were down 2%, 5%, and 6%, respectively -- averaging out to a 4.3% decline.The S&P 500 rose 0.9% for the week, so I was the relative winner with my bearish calls for the eleventh week in a row. This week, I see Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), GameStop (NYSE:GME), and SeaWorld Entertainment (NYSE:SEAS) as stocks that you may want to consider steering clear from. Let's go over my reasons for the near-term pessimism.Constellation BrandsThere aren't a lot of companies reporting earnings this week, but one that could prove problematic is Constellation Brands. The leading distributor of beer, wine, and heartier spirits offers up quarterly results on Thursday morning. The company behind Corona beers, Mondavi wines, Svedka vodka, and High West Whiskey hit a new all-time high on Friday.You may think business is booming, given its buoyant shares that have soared 20% over the past four months, but you would be wrong. Revenue is expected to inch a mere 1% higher this fiscal year, and earnings have fallen short of analyst estimates in back-to-back quarters.With a dominant share of the high-end beer market, I'm not bearish on Constellation's long-term prospects. The rub this week is that the stock is at a new peak on uninspiring top-line growth and bad momentum with its recent bottom-line results. It's going to need a monster report on Thursday if it wants Wall Street to raise a toast to Constellation Brands.GameStopPicking GameStop for the third week in a row as a stock to avoid may seem to be a case of pushing my luck, but that's the kind of dedication diehard gamers should appreciate. GameStop is doing some things right, and later this month it will finish a fiscal year with positive top-line growth for the first time in four years.The counter to that argument is that after back-to-back years of sales declines of more than 20% an uptick in the teens won't even get GameStop back to where it was two years ago. GameStop has nearly $6 billion in trailing revenue, but that's well shy of its peak of $9.5 billion nine years earlier.The bullish case for the original meme stock made sense a year ago when short interest was greater than 100%. Today it rests at a yawn-worthy 11%. It's overvalued by most metrics, and it has posted larger-than-expected deficits in back-to-back quarters. Meme stock investors will probably move to something more shiny and new in 2022.SeaWorld EntertainmentLast week I went for stocks with recent sharp declines, figuring that they would be under selling pressure as investors lock in losses for their 2021 taxes. It's January, and a lot of last year's dogs could bounce back this month. I screened for big winners, and out of the nearly 160 stocks with market caps of at least $1 billion that more than doubled in 2021, I tried to fish for one that I think could be susceptible in the near term. A stock I own nibbled on my hook.I'm a SeaWorld Entertainment investor, and a fan of how they've been able to blend animal-themed exhibits with thrill rides and family attractions. However, I don't think SeaWorld should've doubled last year. The world's largest theme park operator's stock actually declined in 2021, and now we have COVID-19 cases surging in all of the states where SeaWorld has a presence. SeaWorld likely had a strong holiday quarter, so I can see it moving higher in February, when it reports financial results. Between now and then it could be vulnerable to more negative pandemic updates.If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Constellation Brands, GameStop, and SeaWorld Entertainment this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001660118,"gmtCreate":1641248992425,"gmtModify":1676533586645,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001660118","repostId":"2200403714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200403714","pubTimestamp":1641163785,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200403714?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 06:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"December jobs report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, CES: What to know this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200403714","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors can expect a busy first week of 2022, laden with key economic releases out of Washington t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors can expect a busy first week of 2022, laden with key economic releases out of Washington that include the highly-anticipated December jobs report and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest policy-setting meeting.</p><p>It was a hectic final month of 2021 for markets, stocks rallied to new highs and the action could pour into the new year’s opening week of trading with a boost from what is known as the “January Effect” — the perception of a seasonal rise in U.S. equities during the first month of the year.</p><p>Wall Street attributes the theory to an increase in purchasing following the drop in prices that occurs in December when investors sell positions that have declined in order to take the capital loss in that calendar year&#39;s taxes. Some also think the anomaly is the result of traders using year-end cash bonuses to purchase equities the following month.</p><p>Employment data will be in the spotlight this week. The Department of Labor’s monthly jobs report due for release on Friday will offer an updated look at the strength of hiring and labor force participation — important measures of the U.S. economy, made even more consequential in recent weeks amid a backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases as investors look to assess the impact of the the latest Omicron-driven wave.</p><p>Consensus economist estimates suggest that about 400,000 jobs were added in December, with the pace of hiring nearly doubling from the fewer-than-expected 210,000 recorded in November, when forecasts predicted a half-million new jobs to return. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.1% from 4.3% in November when it ticked down to the lowest read since March 2020.</p><p>Although the pace of non-farm payrolls is projected to have risen in December, the downside risk to estimates may be “sizable.”</p><p>“COVID caseloads have been on the rise since November, and news that Omicron could be more infectious than previous variants circulated widely during the December survey period,” Bloomberg economists wrote in a note. “Given how often households have cited fear of COVID or care-taking needs related to COVID as the most important reasons for staying out of the job market, the emergence of the Omicron variant could continue to discourage them.”</p><p>Despite steady rehiring since the peak of the pandemic, labor force participation remains short of pre-virus levels. The civilian labor force was down by about 2.4 million participants as of November, compared to February 2020. Labor issues are also fueling surging inflation levels, as companies large and small face logistical challenges, including rising business costs and supply chain bottlenecks caused by a shortage of workers.</p><p>“This severe labor market shortage — more than any other economic factor — is accounting for a massive breakdown in the normally well-oiled global supply chain,” experts at Wilmington Trust said in their 2022 Capital Markets Outlook. “Labor participation and how firms deal with global resource disorder will likely determine the path for inflation, which is the critical consideration for investors in 2022.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792826db78c3c5bac082a3cd1bbe34c2\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With inflation at the forefront, investors will also set their sights on the Federal Reserve as it looks to raise interest rates this year to offset swelling price levels. The pace of these hikes will determine the stock market’s path forward in the new year.</p><p>Minutes from the FOMC’s Dec. 15 policy-setting meeting, due out Wednesday, could give investors a better picture of where policymakers see interest rates going in 2022.</p><p>Fed officials indicated last month that all 18 members predict at least one 25 basis point hike next year, with the median member forecasting three rate hikes before 2022 is over. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled to take place on Jan. 25 and 26.</p><p>“What’s not changed is the focus on inflation, that’s the biggest risk,” Brigg Macadam founding partner Greg Swenson told Yahoo Finance Live, adding that the Fed changing its tone is “too little, too late.”</p><p>“They are still, by most measures, quite dovish, even with the tapering of bond purchases and the market pricing in three hikes next year, you’ll still have dramatically negative real rates,” he said. “I wouldn’t call that a hawkish Fed — maybe their tone has changed a little bit and they have definitely stopped using the word ‘transitory,’ they have all but admitted that they missed inflation and underestimated it.”</p><p>Although earnings season doesn’t fully commence until around mid-month, several notable off-cycle reports are due out this week, including ones from Jefferies, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, and Walgreens.</p><p>CES, the Consumer Technology Association&#39;s iconic consumer electronics show will also take place from Jan. 5-7 in Las Vegas, but will end one day earlier than initially planned due to fast-spreading cases of COVID-19. The event may also have a light crowd, with some usual, big name attendees like Apple, Alphabet and Facebook&#39;s parent Meta dropping their plans to attend in-person under the circumstances.</p><h2>Economic calendar</h2><ul><li><p><b>Monday:</b> Markit US Manufacturing PMI, December final (57.7 estimated, 57.8 prior); Construction Spending, month over month, November (0.7% estimated, 0.2% prior month)</p></li><li><p><b>Tuesday:</b> ISM New Orders, December (61.5% prior month); ISM Prices Paid, December (79.3 estimated, 82.4 prior month); ISM Manufacturing, December (60.2 estimated, 61.1) prior month); ISM Employment, December (53.3 prior month); JOLTS job openings, November (11,033,000 prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, December (13,100,000 expected, 12,860,000 prior month)</p></li><li><p><b>Wednesday:</b> MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Dec. 31 (-0.6% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, December (360,000 expected, 534,000 during prior month); Markit US Composite PMI, December final (56.9 prior month); Markit US Services PMI, December final (57.5 expected, 57.5 prior month); FOMC Meeting Minutes, December 15</p></li><li><p><b>Thursday: </b>Challenger Job Cuts, year over year, December (-77% prior); Trade Balance, November (-$74,000,000,000 expected, -$67,000,000,000); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended January 1 (199,000 expected, 198,000 during prior week) Continuing Claims, week ended January 1 (1,715,000 expected, 1,716,000 prior week); Langer Consumer Comfort, January 2 (47.9 prior); Factory Orders excluding transportation, November (1.6% prior); Factory Orders, November (1.5% expected, 1.0% prior) ISM Services Index, December (67.0 expected, 69.1 prior); Durable Goods Orders, November final (2.5% prior); Durable Goods Excluding Transportation, November final (0.8% prior); Capital Goods Orders Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, November final (-0.1%); Capital Goods Shipments Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, November final (0.3%)</p></li><li><p><b>Friday:</b> Revisions – Employment Report, Household Survey; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, December (82,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, December (400,000 expected, 210,000 prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, December (370,000 expected, 235,000 prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, December (33,000 expected, 31,000 prior month); Unemployment Rate, December (4.1 expected, 4.3% prior); Average Hourly Earnings, month over month, December (0.4% expected, 0.3% prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year over year (4.2% expected, 4.8% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, December (34.8 expected, 34.8 prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, December (61.9% expected, 61.8% prior month); Underemployment Rate, December (7.8% prior month); Consumer Credit, November (22,500,000,000 expected, 16,897,000,000 prior month)</p></li></ul><h2>Earnings calendar</h2><ul><li><p><b>Monday:</b> <i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li><li><p><b>Tuesday:</b> Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MLKN\">MillerKnoll</a> (MLKN) after market close</p></li><li><p><b>Wednesday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MULN\">Mullen Automotive</a> Inc. (MULN)</p></li><li><p><b>Thursday</b>: Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. (BBY) before market open, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STZ\">Constellation Brands Inc</a>. (STZ) before market open, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> (WBA) before market opens, PriceSmart (PSMT) after market close</p></li><li><p><b>Friday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>December jobs report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, CES: What to know this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDecember jobs report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, CES: What to know this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-03 06:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-fomc-meeting-minutes-what-to-know-this-week-171353443.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors can expect a busy first week of 2022, laden with key economic releases out of Washington that include the highly-anticipated December jobs report and minutes from the Federal Open Market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-fomc-meeting-minutes-what-to-know-this-week-171353443.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","STZ":"星座品牌","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","FOMC":"FOMO CORP.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","JEF":"杰富瑞","BK4143":"办公服务与用品","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4504":"桥水持仓","MULN":"Mullen Automotive","BBBY":"3B家居","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4169":"酿酒商与葡萄酒商","MLKN":"MillerKnoll","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4128":"药品零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","PSMT":"普尔斯玛特","BBY":"百思买","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-fomc-meeting-minutes-what-to-know-this-week-171353443.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200403714","content_text":"Investors can expect a busy first week of 2022, laden with key economic releases out of Washington that include the highly-anticipated December jobs report and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest policy-setting meeting.It was a hectic final month of 2021 for markets, stocks rallied to new highs and the action could pour into the new year’s opening week of trading with a boost from what is known as the “January Effect” — the perception of a seasonal rise in U.S. equities during the first month of the year.Wall Street attributes the theory to an increase in purchasing following the drop in prices that occurs in December when investors sell positions that have declined in order to take the capital loss in that calendar year's taxes. Some also think the anomaly is the result of traders using year-end cash bonuses to purchase equities the following month.Employment data will be in the spotlight this week. The Department of Labor’s monthly jobs report due for release on Friday will offer an updated look at the strength of hiring and labor force participation — important measures of the U.S. economy, made even more consequential in recent weeks amid a backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases as investors look to assess the impact of the the latest Omicron-driven wave.Consensus economist estimates suggest that about 400,000 jobs were added in December, with the pace of hiring nearly doubling from the fewer-than-expected 210,000 recorded in November, when forecasts predicted a half-million new jobs to return. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.1% from 4.3% in November when it ticked down to the lowest read since March 2020.Although the pace of non-farm payrolls is projected to have risen in December, the downside risk to estimates may be “sizable.”“COVID caseloads have been on the rise since November, and news that Omicron could be more infectious than previous variants circulated widely during the December survey period,” Bloomberg economists wrote in a note. “Given how often households have cited fear of COVID or care-taking needs related to COVID as the most important reasons for staying out of the job market, the emergence of the Omicron variant could continue to discourage them.”Despite steady rehiring since the peak of the pandemic, labor force participation remains short of pre-virus levels. The civilian labor force was down by about 2.4 million participants as of November, compared to February 2020. Labor issues are also fueling surging inflation levels, as companies large and small face logistical challenges, including rising business costs and supply chain bottlenecks caused by a shortage of workers.“This severe labor market shortage — more than any other economic factor — is accounting for a massive breakdown in the normally well-oiled global supply chain,” experts at Wilmington Trust said in their 2022 Capital Markets Outlook. “Labor participation and how firms deal with global resource disorder will likely determine the path for inflation, which is the critical consideration for investors in 2022.”With inflation at the forefront, investors will also set their sights on the Federal Reserve as it looks to raise interest rates this year to offset swelling price levels. The pace of these hikes will determine the stock market’s path forward in the new year.Minutes from the FOMC’s Dec. 15 policy-setting meeting, due out Wednesday, could give investors a better picture of where policymakers see interest rates going in 2022.Fed officials indicated last month that all 18 members predict at least one 25 basis point hike next year, with the median member forecasting three rate hikes before 2022 is over. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled to take place on Jan. 25 and 26.“What’s not changed is the focus on inflation, that’s the biggest risk,” Brigg Macadam founding partner Greg Swenson told Yahoo Finance Live, adding that the Fed changing its tone is “too little, too late.”“They are still, by most measures, quite dovish, even with the tapering of bond purchases and the market pricing in three hikes next year, you’ll still have dramatically negative real rates,” he said. “I wouldn’t call that a hawkish Fed — maybe their tone has changed a little bit and they have definitely stopped using the word ‘transitory,’ they have all but admitted that they missed inflation and underestimated it.”Although earnings season doesn’t fully commence until around mid-month, several notable off-cycle reports are due out this week, including ones from Jefferies, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Walgreens.CES, the Consumer Technology Association's iconic consumer electronics show will also take place from Jan. 5-7 in Las Vegas, but will end one day earlier than initially planned due to fast-spreading cases of COVID-19. The event may also have a light crowd, with some usual, big name attendees like Apple, Alphabet and Facebook's parent Meta dropping their plans to attend in-person under the circumstances.Economic calendarMonday: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, December final (57.7 estimated, 57.8 prior); Construction Spending, month over month, November (0.7% estimated, 0.2% prior month)Tuesday: ISM New Orders, December (61.5% prior month); ISM Prices Paid, December (79.3 estimated, 82.4 prior month); ISM Manufacturing, December (60.2 estimated, 61.1) prior month); ISM Employment, December (53.3 prior month); JOLTS job openings, November (11,033,000 prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, December (13,100,000 expected, 12,860,000 prior month)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Dec. 31 (-0.6% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, December (360,000 expected, 534,000 during prior month); Markit US Composite PMI, December final (56.9 prior month); Markit US Services PMI, December final (57.5 expected, 57.5 prior month); FOMC Meeting Minutes, December 15Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year over year, December (-77% prior); Trade Balance, November (-$74,000,000,000 expected, -$67,000,000,000); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended January 1 (199,000 expected, 198,000 during prior week) Continuing Claims, week ended January 1 (1,715,000 expected, 1,716,000 prior week); Langer Consumer Comfort, January 2 (47.9 prior); Factory Orders excluding transportation, November (1.6% prior); Factory Orders, November (1.5% expected, 1.0% prior) ISM Services Index, December (67.0 expected, 69.1 prior); Durable Goods Orders, November final (2.5% prior); Durable Goods Excluding Transportation, November final (0.8% prior); Capital Goods Orders Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, November final (-0.1%); Capital Goods Shipments Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, November final (0.3%)Friday: Revisions – Employment Report, Household Survey; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, December (82,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, December (400,000 expected, 210,000 prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, December (370,000 expected, 235,000 prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, December (33,000 expected, 31,000 prior month); Unemployment Rate, December (4.1 expected, 4.3% prior); Average Hourly Earnings, month over month, December (0.4% expected, 0.3% prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year over year (4.2% expected, 4.8% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, December (34.8 expected, 34.8 prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, December (61.9% expected, 61.8% prior month); Underemployment Rate, December (7.8% prior month); Consumer Credit, November (22,500,000,000 expected, 16,897,000,000 prior month)Earnings calendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for releaseTuesday: Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), MillerKnoll (MLKN) after market closeWednesday: Mullen Automotive Inc. (MULN)Thursday: Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBY) before market open, Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) before market open, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) before market opens, PriceSmart (PSMT) after market closeFriday: No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001964517,"gmtCreate":1641162196887,"gmtModify":1676533576108,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001964517","repostId":"2200050441","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200050441","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1641026239,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200050441?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-01 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Li Auto Says Delivered 14,087 Li Ones In December 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200050441","media":"Reuters","summary":"Jan 1 (Reuters) - Li Auto Inc   :* DELIVERED 14,087 LI ONES IN DECEMBER 2021, REPRESENTING A 130.0% ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Jan 1 (Reuters) - Li Auto Inc   :</p><p>* DELIVERED 14,087 LI ONES IN DECEMBER 2021, REPRESENTING A 130.0% INCREASE YEAR OVER YEAR.</p><p>* TOTAL DELIVERIES IN 2021 INCREASED 177.4% YEAR OVER YEAR TO 90,491.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto Says Delivered 14,087 Li Ones In December 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto Says Delivered 14,087 Li Ones In December 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-01 16:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Jan 1 (Reuters) - Li Auto Inc   :</p><p>* DELIVERED 14,087 LI ONES IN DECEMBER 2021, REPRESENTING A 130.0% INCREASE YEAR OVER YEAR.</p><p>* TOTAL DELIVERIES IN 2021 INCREASED 177.4% YEAR OVER YEAR TO 90,491.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK4555":"新能源车"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200050441","content_text":"Jan 1 (Reuters) - Li Auto Inc   :* DELIVERED 14,087 LI ONES IN DECEMBER 2021, REPRESENTING A 130.0% INCREASE YEAR OVER YEAR.* TOTAL DELIVERIES IN 2021 INCREASED 177.4% YEAR OVER YEAR TO 90,491.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003705740,"gmtCreate":1641081460132,"gmtModify":1676533569315,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003705740","repostId":"2200448674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200448674","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1641028848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200448674?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-01 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Says 16,000 Vehicles Were Delivered In Dec, A 181% Increase Y-O-Y","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200448674","media":"Reuters","summary":"Jan 1 (Reuters) - XPeng Inc   :* ANNOUNCES VEHICLE DELIVERY RESULTS FOR DECEMBER AND FOURTH QUARTER ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Jan 1 (Reuters) - XPeng Inc   :</p><p>* ANNOUNCES VEHICLE DELIVERY RESULTS FOR DECEMBER AND FOURTH QUARTER 2021</p><p>* 16,000 SMART EVS DELIVERED IN DECEMBER</p><p>* 16,000 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN DECEMBER 2021, A 181% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* 41,751 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN Q4 2021, A 222% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* 98,155 TOTAL VEHICLES DELIVERED IN 2021, A 263% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* CUMULATIVE DELIVERIES REACHED 137,953 AS OF END OF DECEMBER 2021</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Says 16,000 Vehicles Were Delivered In Dec, A 181% Increase Y-O-Y</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Says 16,000 Vehicles Were Delivered In Dec, A 181% Increase Y-O-Y\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-01 17:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Jan 1 (Reuters) - XPeng Inc   :</p><p>* ANNOUNCES VEHICLE DELIVERY RESULTS FOR DECEMBER AND FOURTH QUARTER 2021</p><p>* 16,000 SMART EVS DELIVERED IN DECEMBER</p><p>* 16,000 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN DECEMBER 2021, A 181% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* 41,751 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN Q4 2021, A 222% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* 98,155 TOTAL VEHICLES DELIVERED IN 2021, A 263% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* CUMULATIVE DELIVERIES REACHED 137,953 AS OF END OF DECEMBER 2021</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1119":"汽车制造商","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1587":"次新股","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1588":"回港中概股"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200448674","content_text":"Jan 1 (Reuters) - XPeng Inc   :* ANNOUNCES VEHICLE DELIVERY RESULTS FOR DECEMBER AND FOURTH QUARTER 2021* 16,000 SMART EVS DELIVERED IN DECEMBER* 16,000 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN DECEMBER 2021, A 181% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR* 41,751 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN Q4 2021, A 222% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR* 98,155 TOTAL VEHICLES DELIVERED IN 2021, A 263% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR* CUMULATIVE DELIVERIES REACHED 137,953 AS OF END OF DECEMBER 2021","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9963562091,"gmtCreate":1668727597514,"gmtModify":1676538102067,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963562091","repostId":"2284716909","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284716909","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668718854,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284716909?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 05:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US STOCKS-Wall Street Drops As Hawkish Fed Official Comments Weigh","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284716909","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes ended modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session as hawki","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street&#39;s main indexes ended modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session as hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and data showing the labor market remained tight led some investors to worry about more aggressive interest rate hikes.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank needs to keep raising rates given that its tightening so far &#34;had only limited effects on observed inflation.&#34;</p><p>Stocks have retreated in recent days after a strong month-long rally spurred by softer-than-expected inflation reports that raised hopes the Fed would temper its rate hikes.</p><p>&#34;The Fed is still talking up, generally, interest rates,&#34; said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. &#34;There might be some disagreement about the pace. But interest rates are not coming down anytime soon.”</p><p>Stocks reduced losses late in the session but the major indexes still ended in negative territory.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 7.51 points, or 0.02%, to 33,546.32, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.23 points, or 0.31%, to 3,946.56 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 38.70 points, or 0.35%, to 11,144.96.</p><p>Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market remained tight. A report on Wednesday detailed strong retail sales growth last month, indicating the economy has weathered rate hikes.</p><p>Bets from traders of a 75 basis point hike at the Fed&#39;s next meeting climbed to 19% from about 15% a day earlier, according to the CME Group&#39;s FedWatch tool. Most investors still expect a 50 basis point increase.</p><p>Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) shares rose 5% after the company raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast with supply chain hurdles easing. The stock helped the S&amp;P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) log a 0.2% gain.</p><p>Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended lower, however, with utilities (.SPLRCU) shedding 1.8% and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) dropping about 1.3%.</p><p>In company news, shares of Macy&#39;s (M.N) surged 15% after the department store chain raised its annual profit forecast on resilient demand for high-end clothes and beauty products.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.65-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 46 new highs and 169 new lows.</p><p>About 10.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12.1 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US STOCKS-Wall Street Drops As Hawkish Fed Official Comments Weigh</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS STOCKS-Wall Street Drops As Hawkish Fed Official Comments Weigh\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-18 05:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>(Reuters) - Wall Street&#39;s main indexes ended modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session as hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and data showing the labor market remained tight led some investors to worry about more aggressive interest rate hikes.</p><p>St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank needs to keep raising rates given that its tightening so far &#34;had only limited effects on observed inflation.&#34;</p><p>Stocks have retreated in recent days after a strong month-long rally spurred by softer-than-expected inflation reports that raised hopes the Fed would temper its rate hikes.</p><p>&#34;The Fed is still talking up, generally, interest rates,&#34; said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. &#34;There might be some disagreement about the pace. But interest rates are not coming down anytime soon.”</p><p>Stocks reduced losses late in the session but the major indexes still ended in negative territory.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 7.51 points, or 0.02%, to 33,546.32, the S&amp;P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.23 points, or 0.31%, to 3,946.56 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 38.70 points, or 0.35%, to 11,144.96.</p><p>Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market remained tight. A report on Wednesday detailed strong retail sales growth last month, indicating the economy has weathered rate hikes.</p><p>Bets from traders of a 75 basis point hike at the Fed&#39;s next meeting climbed to 19% from about 15% a day earlier, according to the CME Group&#39;s FedWatch tool. Most investors still expect a 50 basis point increase.</p><p>Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) shares rose 5% after the company raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast with supply chain hurdles easing. The stock helped the S&amp;P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) log a 0.2% gain.</p><p>Most S&amp;P 500 sectors ended lower, however, with utilities (.SPLRCU) shedding 1.8% and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) dropping about 1.3%.</p><p>In company news, shares of Macy&#39;s (M.N) surged 15% after the department store chain raised its annual profit forecast on resilient demand for high-end clothes and beauty products.</p><p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.65-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 46 new highs and 169 new lows.</p><p>About 10.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12.1 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284716909","content_text":"(Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes ended modestly lower on Thursday in a choppy session as hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official and data showing the labor market remained tight led some investors to worry about more aggressive interest rate hikes.St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the central bank needs to keep raising rates given that its tightening so far \"had only limited effects on observed inflation.\"Stocks have retreated in recent days after a strong month-long rally spurred by softer-than-expected inflation reports that raised hopes the Fed would temper its rate hikes.\"The Fed is still talking up, generally, interest rates,\" said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management in Chicago. \"There might be some disagreement about the pace. But interest rates are not coming down anytime soon.”Stocks reduced losses late in the session but the major indexes still ended in negative territory.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 7.51 points, or 0.02%, to 33,546.32, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 12.23 points, or 0.31%, to 3,946.56 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 38.70 points, or 0.35%, to 11,144.96.Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the labor market remained tight. A report on Wednesday detailed strong retail sales growth last month, indicating the economy has weathered rate hikes.Bets from traders of a 75 basis point hike at the Fed's next meeting climbed to 19% from about 15% a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Most investors still expect a 50 basis point increase.Cisco Systems (CSCO.O) shares rose 5% after the company raised its full-year revenue and profit forecast with supply chain hurdles easing. The stock helped the S&P 500 information technology sector (.SPLRCT) log a 0.2% gain.Most S&P 500 sectors ended lower, however, with utilities (.SPLRCU) shedding 1.8% and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) dropping about 1.3%.In company news, shares of Macy's (M.N) surged 15% after the department store chain raised its annual profit forecast on resilient demand for high-end clothes and beauty products.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.06-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.65-to-1 ratio favored decliners.The S&P 500 posted 1 new 52-week highs and 1 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 46 new highs and 169 new lows.About 10.3 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, compared with the 12.1 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9008401241,"gmtCreate":1641508319820,"gmtModify":1676533621605,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9008401241","repostId":"1137932427","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137932427","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1641482309,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137932427?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-06 23:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Vaccine Stocks Slid in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137932427","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Vaccine stocks slid in morning trading. BioNTech SE, Moderna, Pfizer, Histogenics and Novavax fell b","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Vaccine stocks slid in morning trading. BioNTech SE, Moderna, Pfizer, Histogenics and Novavax fell between 1% and 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a275eb7fdd60e6ddf615caa2e0c8a763\" tg-width=\"285\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Vaccine Stocks Slid in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVaccine Stocks Slid in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-06 23:18</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Vaccine stocks slid in morning trading. BioNTech SE, Moderna, Pfizer, Histogenics and Novavax fell between 1% and 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a275eb7fdd60e6ddf615caa2e0c8a763\" tg-width=\"285\" tg-height=\"274\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137932427","content_text":"Vaccine stocks slid in morning trading. BioNTech SE, Moderna, Pfizer, Histogenics and Novavax fell between 1% and 4%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077028412,"gmtCreate":1658442952836,"gmtModify":1676536157579,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077028412","repostId":"1172458898","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172458898","pubTimestamp":1658416212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172458898?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopify: What’S on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172458898","media":"TipRanks","summary":"The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has bee","content":"<div>\n<p>The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has been blunted by several factors.Canadian e-commerce heavyweight Shopify (SHOP) put the last quarter’s (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/shopify-whats-on-the-menu-for-q2-earnings-analyst-weighs-in/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1606183248679","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopify: What’S on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopify: What’S on the Menu for Q2 Earnings? Analyst Weighs In\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/shopify-whats-on-the-menu-for-q2-earnings-analyst-weighs-in/><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has been blunted by several factors.Canadian e-commerce heavyweight Shopify (SHOP) put the last quarter’s (...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/shopify-whats-on-the-menu-for-q2-earnings-analyst-weighs-in/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHOP":"Shopify Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.tipranks.com/news/article/shopify-whats-on-the-menu-for-q2-earnings-analyst-weighs-in/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172458898","content_text":"The past few quarters have been no easy ride for the e-commerce sector; post-pandemic growth has been blunted by several factors.Canadian e-commerce heavyweight Shopify (SHOP) put the last quarter’s (1Q22) slowing growth down to the usual suspects; consumers’ shift to offline retail and travel, difficult comps (which are expected to alleviate as the year progresses) and inflation, whereby consumers are more likely to pivot towards discount retailers.With the company set to report Q2 earnings on July 27, Stifel’sScott Devitt thinks the “near-term results may be further impacted by FX headwinds,” with the analyst noting non-US revenues account for ~36% of Shopify’s total haul.With this in mind, to account for not only the recent strengthening of the US dollar, but also reflecting “weaker than expected consumer demand” for discretionary e-commerce, the analyst has lowered Q2 GMV/revenue and adj. net income estimates, which now all fall below Street expectations. GMV growth expectations for 2023 are also given a trim, with the analyst’s $260 billion estimate (+25% year-over-year), also coming in lower than the consensus calls for $267 million (+27% YoY).That said, Devitt also thinks investors are by now well-aware of the current issues in the e-commerce space, and as such believes we might be “nearing a point where expectations for near-term growth have been appropriately reset.”“After several quarters of slowing growth for Shopify and the broader eCommerce group,” the analyst went on to say, “we believe investors may look past further downward revisions following the 2Q print as near-term headwinds related to shifting consumer spend and inflation have been well-telegraphed at this point in the cycle.”While Devitt might have lowered expectations for the quarter, a glance at website traffic in the period will be fodder for the bulls. Unique Visitors (UVs) are up sequentially by 31% while the year-over-year improvement is even more impressive, showing a 138% increase on the same period last year.Down to the nitty-gritty, what does it all mean for investors? Devitt rates SHOP a Buy, although the price target is lowered from $65 to $55. Nevertheless, the figure still makes room for 12-month growth of 43%.And what about the rest of the Street? Rating wise, opinions are mixed; the stock claims a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on 13 Buys, 14 Holds and 2 Sells. However, the average target is an extremely bullish one; the figure clocks in at $70.30, suggesting shares will climb ~83% higher in the year ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4113904591642392","authorId":"4113904591642392","name":"LMSunshine","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0ad636f2490d8428fcee9da6d669e46c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4113904591642392","authorIdStr":"4113904591642392"},"content":"Thanks for leaving a comment in my post, appreciate it loads 🤗 Check out other posts on my homepage & please help to like, many thanks 🤓","text":"Thanks for leaving a comment in my post, appreciate it loads 🤗 Check out other posts on my homepage & please help to like, many thanks 🤓","html":"Thanks for leaving a comment in my post, appreciate it loads 🤗 Check out other posts on my homepage & please help to like, many thanks 🤓"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077021581,"gmtCreate":1658442844443,"gmtModify":1676536157558,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077021581","repostId":"1146734237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146734237","pubTimestamp":1658416042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146734237?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Q2'22 Preview: What Investors Can Expect","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146734237","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir will report its second quarter in three weeks.Recent contract wins could reignite go","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir will report its second quarter in three weeks.</li><li>Recent contract wins could reignite government-sourced revenue growth going forward.</li><li>Most important figures for Q2&#39;22 will be Palantir’s customer monetization rate and customer net-adds, especially in the commercial business.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1337a14721b40a7c4630848fd86793c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"727\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Michael Vi</span></p><p>In less than a month Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will submit its earnings card for the second-quarter, which, if the company executed well against its growth targets, could potentially be a catalyst for a the initiation of a new up-leg inshares of Palantir. I last covered Palantir in June While I expect Palantir’s second-quarter revenues to slightly exceed the firm’s Q2’22 guidance, the company will likely have made further progress regarding its customer monetization rate, especially in the commercial business where all of the firm’s momentum is right now. I believe Palantir will submit a solid earnings card in August and the firm could sail past low earnings expectations.</p><p><b>Palantir’s Q2’22: Guidance versus expectations</b></p><p>For the second-quarter, Palantir has said it expects to see base case revenues of $470M and adjusted operating margins of 20%. The revenue guidance implies 5.3% quarter over quarter growth, but revenues could come in better than expected if the company on-boarded a good amount of new paying clients in the commercial business. I anticipate revenues between $470-475M as the second-quarter likely saw improving customer monetization as well as a decent number of customer net-adds.</p><p>Regarding adjusted operating margins, Palantir historically submitted margin expectations that were low relative to actual results. In Q1’22, Palantir guided for Q2’22 adjusted operating margins of 23% while actual margins were 26% and FY 2021 guidance regarding margins was also conservative. For this reason, I expect Palantir to report slightly better adjusted operating margins, between 22-24% for Q2’22, in part because I expect strong net retention rates as well as continual increases in customer product spend.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae0d8c2bc654db934a8c0659f605d0ee\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p><b>Customer monetization could make a difference for Palantir</b></p><p>While new customer net-adds are an important way to broaden its revenue base, it is key for Palantir to optimize revenue generation from its existing client book.</p><p>Palantir’s commercial revenue growth accelerated for the fifth straight quarter in Q1’22 and the firm added 37 net new customers in this segment, after tripling the commercial customer count in FY 2021. Palantir serviced 184 commercial customers at the end of Q1’22, showing 207% year over year growth. Across Palantir’s government and commercial businesses, the company had 40 customer net-adds in Q’22 and this momentum is likely to have persisted in the second-quarter.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36d0079b19aac177847fce51c57c44ed\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"669\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir</span></p><p>My expectations for Palantir’s Q2’22 are:</p><ul><li>136-140% year over year US commercial revenue growth, sixth straight quarter of top line acceleration</li><li>A total customer count across government and private enterprise segments exceeding 300, for the first time ever, implying a customer net-add of at least 23 accounts</li><li>Commercial customer count exceeding 200, for the first time ever, implying at least 16 net-adds in Q2&#39;22</li><li>Average revenue per top twenty customer growing from $45M to $47M, showing 4.4% quarter over quarter growth, driven by US commercial momentum</li><li>Continual quarter over quarter growth in ACV (average account value) and billings</li></ul><p>Average revenue for the largest 20 customers grew 24% year over year to $45M in Q1&#39;22 and I believe that Palantir could really surprise here for the second-quarter due to clients having shown a willingness to increase spending on Palantir’s products and services. Anything that indicates improving monetization (higher average product spend, large number of customer net-adds and growing net retention) could push shares of Palantir into a new up-leg, but a sizable revenue beat could also achieve this.</p><p><b>Low EPS expectations</b></p><p>In each of the last two quarters Palantir’s actual EPS was 50% below its expected EPS: $.02 per-share compared to $.04 per-share -- meaning the software analytics company under-performed estimates in two quarters in a row. In each case, shares of Palantir plunged after the earnings card was delivered, with investors taking out their frustration on Palantir’s shares.</p><p>For the second-quarter, the prediction is for Palantir to have EPS of $.03 and predictions have fallen nine times in the last 90 days, meaning the market doesn&#39;t expect much from Palantir. An earnings beat in August, potentially driven by improving customer monetization in the commercial business, could create some desperately needed upside momentum for Palantir.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911bd934e283be62ffc078fb5f474986\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"234\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><b>New U.S. Army Contract Win</b></p><p>Just before the end of the second-quarter, Palantir announced that it was one of two companies that was awarded a U.S. Army contract to build a prototype for TITAN, which stands for Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node. TITAN is a system that consolidates a large amount of data to assist long range precision targeting missions. With more and more sensor data to sift through, the U.S. Army is going to draw on artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for threat identification and tracking… and Palantir stands ready to support the effort. The Army contract will last through 2023 and is worth $36M. The most recent contract win comes after Palantir was awarded a $53.9M contract increase by the U.S. Space Systems Command at the end of May which brought the SSC contract value to $175.4M. Contracts like these are the reason why I believe Palantir could reasonably see an acceleration of revenue growth in the non-commercial business as well going forward.</p><p><b>Risks with Palantir</b></p><p>The two biggest risks for Palantir are a slowdown in revenue growth, especially in the U.S. commercial business which is driving the company’s entire financial performance right now, and shareholder dilution related to Palantir’s high levels of stock based compensation.</p><p>What would change my mind about Palantir is if the firm’s second-quarter earnings showed deteriorating metrics in customer monetization rates, a drop-off in customer net-adds or declining average revenue per customer.</p><p><b>Final thoughts</b></p><p>Palantir has been on a wild ride lately and it hasn’t been a good one. Shares of the software analytics company are in a long term down-trend and have skidded below $10 in July. To get Palantir to move into an up-leg, the software analytics company will have to deliver substantive business improvements in August… a sizable EPS beat, growing average revenues per customer (better monetization) and the on-boarding of a large number of new clients in the commercial business could do the trick for Palantir. I expect the company to confirm its 30% revenue growth target for FY 2022 while operating margins are likely going to come in better than expected, like they did in the past!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Q2'22 Preview: What Investors Can Expect</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Q2'22 Preview: What Investors Can Expect\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524353-palantir-stock-q2-2022-earnings-preview-what-investors-expect><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir will report its second quarter in three weeks.Recent contract wins could reignite government-sourced revenue growth going forward.Most important figures for Q2'22 will be Palantir’s ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524353-palantir-stock-q2-2022-earnings-preview-what-investors-expect\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524353-palantir-stock-q2-2022-earnings-preview-what-investors-expect","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1146734237","content_text":"SummaryPalantir will report its second quarter in three weeks.Recent contract wins could reignite government-sourced revenue growth going forward.Most important figures for Q2'22 will be Palantir’s customer monetization rate and customer net-adds, especially in the commercial business.Michael ViIn less than a month Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) will submit its earnings card for the second-quarter, which, if the company executed well against its growth targets, could potentially be a catalyst for a the initiation of a new up-leg inshares of Palantir. I last covered Palantir in June While I expect Palantir’s second-quarter revenues to slightly exceed the firm’s Q2’22 guidance, the company will likely have made further progress regarding its customer monetization rate, especially in the commercial business where all of the firm’s momentum is right now. I believe Palantir will submit a solid earnings card in August and the firm could sail past low earnings expectations.Palantir’s Q2’22: Guidance versus expectationsFor the second-quarter, Palantir has said it expects to see base case revenues of $470M and adjusted operating margins of 20%. The revenue guidance implies 5.3% quarter over quarter growth, but revenues could come in better than expected if the company on-boarded a good amount of new paying clients in the commercial business. I anticipate revenues between $470-475M as the second-quarter likely saw improving customer monetization as well as a decent number of customer net-adds.Regarding adjusted operating margins, Palantir historically submitted margin expectations that were low relative to actual results. In Q1’22, Palantir guided for Q2’22 adjusted operating margins of 23% while actual margins were 26% and FY 2021 guidance regarding margins was also conservative. For this reason, I expect Palantir to report slightly better adjusted operating margins, between 22-24% for Q2’22, in part because I expect strong net retention rates as well as continual increases in customer product spend.PalantirCustomer monetization could make a difference for PalantirWhile new customer net-adds are an important way to broaden its revenue base, it is key for Palantir to optimize revenue generation from its existing client book.Palantir’s commercial revenue growth accelerated for the fifth straight quarter in Q1’22 and the firm added 37 net new customers in this segment, after tripling the commercial customer count in FY 2021. Palantir serviced 184 commercial customers at the end of Q1’22, showing 207% year over year growth. Across Palantir’s government and commercial businesses, the company had 40 customer net-adds in Q’22 and this momentum is likely to have persisted in the second-quarter.PalantirMy expectations for Palantir’s Q2’22 are:136-140% year over year US commercial revenue growth, sixth straight quarter of top line accelerationA total customer count across government and private enterprise segments exceeding 300, for the first time ever, implying a customer net-add of at least 23 accountsCommercial customer count exceeding 200, for the first time ever, implying at least 16 net-adds in Q2'22Average revenue per top twenty customer growing from $45M to $47M, showing 4.4% quarter over quarter growth, driven by US commercial momentumContinual quarter over quarter growth in ACV (average account value) and billingsAverage revenue for the largest 20 customers grew 24% year over year to $45M in Q1'22 and I believe that Palantir could really surprise here for the second-quarter due to clients having shown a willingness to increase spending on Palantir’s products and services. Anything that indicates improving monetization (higher average product spend, large number of customer net-adds and growing net retention) could push shares of Palantir into a new up-leg, but a sizable revenue beat could also achieve this.Low EPS expectationsIn each of the last two quarters Palantir’s actual EPS was 50% below its expected EPS: $.02 per-share compared to $.04 per-share -- meaning the software analytics company under-performed estimates in two quarters in a row. In each case, shares of Palantir plunged after the earnings card was delivered, with investors taking out their frustration on Palantir’s shares.For the second-quarter, the prediction is for Palantir to have EPS of $.03 and predictions have fallen nine times in the last 90 days, meaning the market doesn't expect much from Palantir. An earnings beat in August, potentially driven by improving customer monetization in the commercial business, could create some desperately needed upside momentum for Palantir.Seeking AlphaNew U.S. Army Contract WinJust before the end of the second-quarter, Palantir announced that it was one of two companies that was awarded a U.S. Army contract to build a prototype for TITAN, which stands for Tactical Intelligence Targeting Access Node. TITAN is a system that consolidates a large amount of data to assist long range precision targeting missions. With more and more sensor data to sift through, the U.S. Army is going to draw on artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for threat identification and tracking… and Palantir stands ready to support the effort. The Army contract will last through 2023 and is worth $36M. The most recent contract win comes after Palantir was awarded a $53.9M contract increase by the U.S. Space Systems Command at the end of May which brought the SSC contract value to $175.4M. Contracts like these are the reason why I believe Palantir could reasonably see an acceleration of revenue growth in the non-commercial business as well going forward.Risks with PalantirThe two biggest risks for Palantir are a slowdown in revenue growth, especially in the U.S. commercial business which is driving the company’s entire financial performance right now, and shareholder dilution related to Palantir’s high levels of stock based compensation.What would change my mind about Palantir is if the firm’s second-quarter earnings showed deteriorating metrics in customer monetization rates, a drop-off in customer net-adds or declining average revenue per customer.Final thoughtsPalantir has been on a wild ride lately and it hasn’t been a good one. Shares of the software analytics company are in a long term down-trend and have skidded below $10 in July. To get Palantir to move into an up-leg, the software analytics company will have to deliver substantive business improvements in August… a sizable EPS beat, growing average revenues per customer (better monetization) and the on-boarding of a large number of new clients in the commercial business could do the trick for Palantir. I expect the company to confirm its 30% revenue growth target for FY 2022 while operating margins are likely going to come in better than expected, like they did in the past!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003524179,"gmtCreate":1641015181403,"gmtModify":1676533565360,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003524179","repostId":"2195485524","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2195485524","pubTimestamp":1641007260,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2195485524?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-01 11:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bargain Shopping? This Stock Is Down 77% in 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195485524","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This company thrived during the pandemic, but economic reopening has reversed the benefits.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors looking for bargains can often find them in the stock market. Poor performance, negative perception, and the fear of losing money can all cause stocks to sell off and trade at lower-than-usual prices.</p><p><b>Peloton</b> (NASDAQ:PTON) is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of those stocks that have sold off considerably in 2021. Indeed, the stock is down 77% this year. Let&#39;s look at what has caused it to fall so hard and whether it&#39;s a good value for bargain-shopping investors.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F659097%2Fgettyimages-1172278008.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>Peloton management overcorrected</h2><p>The clearest reason Peloton&#39;s stock fell so much is the worldwide economic reopening. Peloton&#39;s products were in high demand when economies were in various phases of lockdowns and nonessential businesses, including gyms, were forced to close their doors to the public. That limited the ways folks could exercise, and they turned to Peloton in large numbers.</p><p>The surge in demand was so pronounced that Peloton had difficulty fulfilling orders. At one point, customers had to wait more than ten weeks to receive their exercise equipment. In response, management made investments to increase manufacturing capacity and reduce delivery times.</p><p>Unfortunately for Peloton, several effective vaccines against COVID-19 were developed, economies started reopening, and demand for in-home exercise equipment decreased. Meanwhile, Peloton is stuck with a higher expense base because of its investments to increase capacity. In its most recent quarter ended Sept. 30, Peloton reported a net loss of $367 million compared to a net profit of $69.3 million at the same time last year.</p><p>To make matters worse, Peloton had decreased the price of its bike from $1,895 to $1,495. The move did create increased purchasing from price-sensitive consumers but not enough to offset the considerable price decrease. As a result, revenue in the connected-fitness-products segment (which includes bike sales) fell from $601 million in the third quarter of 2020 to $501 million in Q3 2021. Meanwhile, supply-chain disruptions are raising input and transportation costs; the cost to fulfill sales increased by 21.1% year over year in Q3.</p><p>One potential, near-term bright spot for Peloton is the $1.27 billion of inventory it had on hand ahead of the lucrative holiday shopping season -- up from $937 million in the prior quarter. The quarter ending in December typically is the most lucrative for Peloton, coinciding with not only holiday gift-giving but also new year resolution-induced purchasing. So management is hopeful for strong sales this quarter.</p><h2>Peloton&#39;s stock is a relative bargain</h2><p>Peloton&#39;s stock has undoubtedly faced a steep price decline in 2021 -- and for clear reasons. Customer demand leveled off as economies reopened; meanwhile, management was making investments to increase capacity. All of this has shaken investor confidence. At one point in the last two years, Peloton&#39;s stock was selling at a price-to-sales ratio over 20. As of this writing, it&#39;s down to 2.7.</p><p>Yet Peloton&#39;s stock price crash could now be a bargain for long-term investors who can tolerate any further volatility the company could go through in the short term as it adjusts to changing consumer behavior.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bargain Shopping? This Stock Is Down 77% in 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBargain Shopping? This Stock Is Down 77% in 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-01 11:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/31/peloton-is-a-bargain-stock-price-crash-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors looking for bargains can often find them in the stock market. Poor performance, negative perception, and the fear of losing money can all cause stocks to sell off and trade at lower-than-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/31/peloton-is-a-bargain-stock-price-crash-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4566":"资本集团","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","BK4190":"消闲用品"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/31/peloton-is-a-bargain-stock-price-crash-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2195485524","content_text":"Investors looking for bargains can often find them in the stock market. Poor performance, negative perception, and the fear of losing money can all cause stocks to sell off and trade at lower-than-usual prices.Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) is one of those stocks that have sold off considerably in 2021. Indeed, the stock is down 77% this year. Let's look at what has caused it to fall so hard and whether it's a good value for bargain-shopping investors.Image source: Getty Images.Peloton management overcorrectedThe clearest reason Peloton's stock fell so much is the worldwide economic reopening. Peloton's products were in high demand when economies were in various phases of lockdowns and nonessential businesses, including gyms, were forced to close their doors to the public. That limited the ways folks could exercise, and they turned to Peloton in large numbers.The surge in demand was so pronounced that Peloton had difficulty fulfilling orders. At one point, customers had to wait more than ten weeks to receive their exercise equipment. In response, management made investments to increase manufacturing capacity and reduce delivery times.Unfortunately for Peloton, several effective vaccines against COVID-19 were developed, economies started reopening, and demand for in-home exercise equipment decreased. Meanwhile, Peloton is stuck with a higher expense base because of its investments to increase capacity. In its most recent quarter ended Sept. 30, Peloton reported a net loss of $367 million compared to a net profit of $69.3 million at the same time last year.To make matters worse, Peloton had decreased the price of its bike from $1,895 to $1,495. The move did create increased purchasing from price-sensitive consumers but not enough to offset the considerable price decrease. As a result, revenue in the connected-fitness-products segment (which includes bike sales) fell from $601 million in the third quarter of 2020 to $501 million in Q3 2021. Meanwhile, supply-chain disruptions are raising input and transportation costs; the cost to fulfill sales increased by 21.1% year over year in Q3.One potential, near-term bright spot for Peloton is the $1.27 billion of inventory it had on hand ahead of the lucrative holiday shopping season -- up from $937 million in the prior quarter. The quarter ending in December typically is the most lucrative for Peloton, coinciding with not only holiday gift-giving but also new year resolution-induced purchasing. So management is hopeful for strong sales this quarter.Peloton's stock is a relative bargainPeloton's stock has undoubtedly faced a steep price decline in 2021 -- and for clear reasons. Customer demand leveled off as economies reopened; meanwhile, management was making investments to increase capacity. All of this has shaken investor confidence. At one point in the last two years, Peloton's stock was selling at a price-to-sales ratio over 20. As of this writing, it's down to 2.7.Yet Peloton's stock price crash could now be a bargain for long-term investors who can tolerate any further volatility the company could go through in the short term as it adjusts to changing consumer behavior.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963565031,"gmtCreate":1668727691023,"gmtModify":1676538102152,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963565031","repostId":"1105653869","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105653869","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668727377,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105653869?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 07:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After-Hours Movers: Gap, Applied Materials, Ross Stores and More","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105653869","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Gap– The retailer popped 10% after beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue. Gap also also gave a","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>– The retailer popped 10% after beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue. Gap also also gave a cautious outlook for the holiday season.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>– Shares of the cybersecurity provider added 6.5% after beating expectations for revenue and per-share earnings, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROST\">Ross Stores</a>– Shares shot up 15% following the discount retailer&#39;s report of beats on per-share earnings and revenue for the latest quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation</a>– The Ticketmaster parent gained nearly 3% following Ticketmaster&#39;s announcement that it would not hold its previously scheduled general sale of tickets for Taylor Swift&#39;s &#34;Eras&#34; tour on Friday. The announcement followed fans&#39; rebukes over site malfunctions and long waits during the presale on top of calls from public officials to break up the duo because of anti-trust concerns.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>– Shares of the financial technology company jumped 12% after its quarterly adjusted net income beat consensus estimates, according to FactSet. Revenue was also slightly higher than analysts predicted.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KEYS\">Keysight Technologies</a>– The electronic design company added 4.2% after it reported beating FactSet’s expectations for revenue and per-share earnings. Keysight also said those indicators will be either in-line or above expectations for the next quarter. Management said it had record orders in the quarter and fiscal year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>– Shares rose 3.4% after the manufacturer known for its semiconductor offerings beat analysts’ estimates on revenue and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After-Hours Movers: Gap, Applied Materials, Ross Stores and More</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter-Hours Movers: Gap, Applied Materials, Ross Stores and More\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-18 07:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPS\">Gap</a>– The retailer popped 10% after beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue. Gap also also gave a cautious outlook for the holiday season.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>– Shares of the cybersecurity provider added 6.5% after beating expectations for revenue and per-share earnings, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROST\">Ross Stores</a>– Shares shot up 15% following the discount retailer&#39;s report of beats on per-share earnings and revenue for the latest quarter.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYV\">Live Nation</a>– The Ticketmaster parent gained nearly 3% following Ticketmaster&#39;s announcement that it would not hold its previously scheduled general sale of tickets for Taylor Swift&#39;s &#34;Eras&#34; tour on Friday. The announcement followed fans&#39; rebukes over site malfunctions and long waits during the presale on top of calls from public officials to break up the duo because of anti-trust concerns.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STNE\">StoneCo</a>– Shares of the financial technology company jumped 12% after its quarterly adjusted net income beat consensus estimates, according to FactSet. Revenue was also slightly higher than analysts predicted.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KEYS\">Keysight Technologies</a>– The electronic design company added 4.2% after it reported beating FactSet’s expectations for revenue and per-share earnings. Keysight also said those indicators will be either in-line or above expectations for the next quarter. Management said it had record orders in the quarter and fiscal year.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials</a>– Shares rose 3.4% after the manufacturer known for its semiconductor offerings beat analysts’ estimates on revenue and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KEYS":"Keysight Technologies Inc","PANW":"Palo Alto Networks","LYV":"Live Nation Entertainment","STNE":"StoneCo","AMAT":"应用材料","ROST":"罗斯百货有限公司"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105653869","content_text":"Gap– The retailer popped 10% after beating Wall Street’s estimates for revenue. Gap also also gave a cautious outlook for the holiday season.Palo Alto Networks– Shares of the cybersecurity provider added 6.5% after beating expectations for revenue and per-share earnings, according to Refinitiv.Ross Stores– Shares shot up 15% following the discount retailer's report of beats on per-share earnings and revenue for the latest quarter.Live Nation– The Ticketmaster parent gained nearly 3% following Ticketmaster's announcement that it would not hold its previously scheduled general sale of tickets for Taylor Swift's \"Eras\" tour on Friday. The announcement followed fans' rebukes over site malfunctions and long waits during the presale on top of calls from public officials to break up the duo because of anti-trust concerns.StoneCo– Shares of the financial technology company jumped 12% after its quarterly adjusted net income beat consensus estimates, according to FactSet. Revenue was also slightly higher than analysts predicted.Keysight Technologies– The electronic design company added 4.2% after it reported beating FactSet’s expectations for revenue and per-share earnings. Keysight also said those indicators will be either in-line or above expectations for the next quarter. Management said it had record orders in the quarter and fiscal year.Applied Materials– Shares rose 3.4% after the manufacturer known for its semiconductor offerings beat analysts’ estimates on revenue and earnings for its fiscal fourth quarter.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9077028179,"gmtCreate":1658442884591,"gmtModify":1676536157570,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9077028179","repostId":"2252253318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2252253318","pubTimestamp":1658397248,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2252253318?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-21 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPY: Will The Market Swoon Ever End?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252253318","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"SummaryThe selloff in the S&P and the Nasdaq since November last year has been a textbook example of","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>The selloff in the S&amp;P and the Nasdaq since November last year has been a textbook example of controlled demolition.</li><li>No limit-down days, no Vix-spike, no panicky retail running for the door. Just a never-ending grind-down.</li><li>Will it ever end? We think the answer is more complicated than it first appears. But we don&#39;t think it&#39;s a magical mystery tour.</li><li>We believe the market can be charted quite well and key levels identified ahead of time.  We also believe crypto can be used as a canary in the coalmine.</li><li>For now, we believe SPY warrants a Hold rating; we explain below the triggers that we believe justify turning more bullish or bearish.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcd2f59d5320b003b2081f400358277\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>A Message From Outside The Matrix</b></p><p>The journey of the inquisitive investor is a lifelong one. In short trousers you may learn about company fundamentals and the import thereof. Earnings, earnings per share, p/e multiples, all that sort of thing. As you progress you begin to factor macro data into your work. GDP numbers, inflation, rates and blah. If you are not<i>very</i>careful then you begin to ossify in your thinking. You see linear, directive relationships between earnings and stock prices, where only influential relationships exist. You come to expect that if inflation does X, rates will do Y, and stocks will do Z. And most of all you become locked into a way of thinking about a market trend. When it&#39;s going up, it&#39;s going up forever. And when down? Down forever.</p><p>None of this is your fault. Your problem-solving conscious brain is looking for a linear equation to solve for making money, in the same way that its prehistoric antecedent learned that there are linear equations for finding shelter and food. (Cavedweller 101: always look both ways out the front of the cave door before heading out, lest a sneaky predator deems you lunch). And your limbic brain, in an opioid haze most of the time, cannot be relied upon since it favors having you run towards the gunfire or away from it in equal measure, and an autonomic shot of the wrong corticosteroid at the wrong time can cause you to become hero or zero without any conscious input on your part.</p><p>This is why the best way to read markets is with a big dose of cynicism, a calm demeanor, and an understanding that unless you be J P Morgan himself, most folks are just there to be buffetted this way and that by the market. As far as the major indices go, in their options, futures or ETF clothing, you have in your favor that they are generally too big to fail for very long, that they are highly liquid, and that they are Playground Number One for Big Money who likes nothing better than a game of cat and mouse with Joe P. Retail. And taken together, that all means that the most popular index of all, the S&amp;P 500, can be played using pure sentiment as the gauge. Reality need never feature.</p><p>Fortunately you have tools available to model not-reality and you can use those tools to build a more likely outlook for stocks than your common-or-garden earnings forecasts. Technical analysis tools are, of course, simply ways to measure sentiment. You can call them something more scientific if you like, but really all they are trying to do is pattern recognition. Every TA tool says, well, usually when a security moves like<i>this</i>in the past it moves like<i>that</i>in the future. Beyond that, the skill is in the practitioner.</p><p><b>Will The S&amp;P 500 Go Up Now?</b></p><p>Here&#39;s how the S&amp;P 500 - using its proxy ETF, SPY - looks through the lens of a common TA tool, the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci method. Using this tool can help you prepare emotionally and financially for the trend you happen to find the market in. And this can help you prepare for trend reversals - which are the moments when Big Money truly burns small accounts, pausing only to giggle whilst sailing off into the sunset - literally - whilst grasping big chunks of folks&#39; 401(k)s.</p><p>Take a brief look at the chart and then we&#39;ll walk you through it.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9b66217861357094c120e39ad1af868\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>If you were sat in Fibonacci Wave 101 right now (this is a class we will teach one day, but we are only accepting Matrix-dwellers as applicants in order to maximize our own entertainment), and you knew nothing about anything, you had no Twitter, you didn&#39;t know who Bullard, Powell &amp; Co were (maybe a law firm?), you didn&#39;t ever leave your desk to buy anything so you hadn&#39;t noticed inflation?</p><p>You would say, well, that&#39;s a textbook stock chart right there. You<i>wouldn&#39;t</i>say, gosh, will this selling ever end? And you wouldn&#39;t have been saying in 2020-2021, why, these pesky kids are crazy with their never-ending YOLO buying. You would just say, huh, fake chart, too perfect with the reversals, show me a real life one and we can talk about it.</p><p>But this<i>is</i>a real life chart.</p><p>Here goes.</p><ul><li>From the 2016 lows, SPY puts in a Wave 1 up, peaking right before the Covid crash.</li><li>From that Wave 1 high in the $340 zone comes a 0.786 retracement of the Wave 1 up, troughing at around $219. A 0.786 retrace is an important Fibonacci level and it is a<i>textbook</i>Elliott Wave 2 down.</li><li>From the Covid lows we get a Wave 3 up which peaks right around the 1.618 extension of Wave 1, which is to say around $480. Read any Elliott Wave guide and see how long a Wave 3 usually is. Answer, very often indeed they are 1.618x the length of Wave 1. As SPY hit $480 back in Q4 last year we called &#34;Yikes, The Top&#34; in our<i>Growth Investor Pro</i>service, because the index simply could not push up above that 1.618 extension, no matter how many times it tried.</li><li>We then moved into a Wave 4 down, which has so far respected two Fibonacci retracement levels - the 0.236 retrace (around $419) and the 0.382 retrace (around $380). SPY tried to hold $419 as support back in February and March, failed, then treated it as resistance in May and June. The June selloff plunged below the $380 level then pushed up against it as resistance, and the index is currently thinking about whether to turn that level into support.</li></ul><p>If, big if, SPY moves up from here, then a reversal at the 0.786 for a Wave 2 low, at the 1.618 for a Wave 3 high, and a 0.382 for the Wave 4 low, is absolute textbook.</p><p>Now, knowing these potential reversal levels and knowing which wave you are in can help you train your brain to deal with the situation.</p><p>As the limit-down days hit in the Covid crisis you would say, well, this looks like a Wave 2 down, a brutal selloff in no time at all where shock &amp; awe fill the air around the watercooler. Well, that and a poisonous miasma of viral load. As the 0.786 approached you would say, well, it<i>might</i>plunge right past that but there&#39;s a good chance it doesn&#39;t, so I&#39;ll start thinking about buying the index again.</p><p>As the 1.618 extension served as resistance on several occasions late last year, you would likely have concluded, well, it really doesn&#39;t want to go much higher - and if you looked at the QQQ and saw that it had put in a 2.618 extension at this time and was putting in a similar headbanging performance - you might have agreed further with yourself.</p><p>And into the selloff this year you would have the 0.236 and the 0.382 and the 0.5 (that&#39;s $350 for SPY, plus or minus) in your sights. You would also be saying to yourself, this is a Wave 4. It&#39;s not a Shock and Awe Wave 2. It&#39;s a Slow Bleedout, Controlled Demolition Wave 4. You would say, we had a deep Wave 2 correction so<i>probably</i>Wave 4 won&#39;t be so deep.<i>Probably</i>it will be between the 0.382 and the 0.5 that it reverses.</p><p>Well, where we sit right now in SPY is that the ETF has been down to between the 0.382 and the 0.5 retracements, reaching a local low of around $362 in mid-June. And since then it has pushed up above the 0.382 level of $380 and is thinking about holding over that level.</p><p><b>Has The Market Stopped Selling Yet?</b></p><p>Well, the easy answer is, on a textbook larger-degree 5 waves up off of the 2016 lows then the market looks set to reach new highs in a final Wave 5 up. Using that lens, the next move up would top out somewhere above $480 and the market would then make a deep correction - much deeper than we have experienced this year - for some months, maybe more than a year. The logic being the 5 waves up off the 2016 lows would form a large Wave 1 and the subsequent large Wave 2 we could expect to bottom between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement of that Wave 1 up. That&#39;s somewhere between $250-300 for SPY. So, if this textbook chart pattern continues, you have your levels. Risk on until SPY approaches $480, then start dialing back the risk until SPY rolls over in a convincing fashion, by which time the prudent investor will already have assembled a basket of protective instruments - puts, short index positions, and so on.</p><p>Unfortunately we think it&#39;s a little more complicated than that. Sticking purely to chart analysis, and ignoring the whys and wherefores, the counterargument to the above is that the market is simply in a downtrend, and whilst that $380 can surely act as support, it will be merely until SPY hits its head on the resistance defined by that downtrend.</p><p>Like this:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84faf9e2e2308dd1c94a4ff3e5ccbd9b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SPY Chart II (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>So even if SPY does keep pushing up, we may run into resistance at +/-$400. Then, and only then, can we know whether truly sentiment will trump what lies outside the window. If it does, we should see SPY climb back up to that 0.236 retrace ($418ish) and beyond. And if not - a move back down to $380 and below, maybe as low as $350 (which is that 0.5 retracement of the post-Covid move up).</p><p>As always, nobody can know for sure and all you can do is watch in real time to know when it&#39;s safe to be risk-on and when best to dial back. In our <i>Growth Investor Pro</i> service our house stance is as follows:</p><p>Short-term bullish on the market until SPY approaches the $395-400 range, in which case we believe cashing in gains and de-grossing positions would be prudent. If SPY pushes up and out of that downward channel, and turns the upper resistance line into support, long positions can be safely added to in our view, in anticipation of a further rise. But if the downward channel persists and we&#39;re simply in a modest rally within a continuing bear market, time to keep cash and/or add to short positions. In our service we find the short levered index ETFs are useful instruments for this.</p><p><b>Other Useful Indicators Include Crypto</b></p><p>Corroborating evidence and other indicators of risk appetite? You can look at the Nasdaq if you like, but in truth whilst the timeframes are a little shortened and the price moves a little amplified vs. the S&amp;P, the two move very much in concert. So QQQ doesn&#39;t add much visibility to the mix.</p><p>Crypto however we find useful as a canary in the coalmine. For instance, when Bitcoin scares, and it scares easy right now, the index usually follows. As you can discover on FinTwit and elsewhere, BTCUSD above $20k and moving up is a useful indicator of risk-on for now. Below $20k, risk off.</p><p>So in our view, if the present short term rally in BTC moves up and rolls over, at the rollover point we believe that can flag a pending rollover in SPY too.</p><p>Incidentally, we believe BTC can drop <i>a lot</i> once it rolls over. Its correction off of the Covid highs looks incomplete to us.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd7e9ce0b9b0574e5d67265f1051bae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>BTCUSD Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>Being an instrument of pure sentiment, with no reality to it at all - no earnings, no fundamental tether to anything, BTC can be charted very well with sentimental tools like Elliott Waves and Fibonacci levels. If you look at the chart above which runs from the 2018 lows, you have again some moves that fit the patterns very well. Wave 1 up, ends just below the 0.786 retrace at the Covid lows for a Wave 2 low. Then a HUGE Wave 3 up - hitting the 5.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1 almost to the dollar - a Wave 4 down then a final Wave 5 higher. After a full 5 wave impulsive move like that, it&#39;s common to see a three-wave A-B-C correction and common too for A=C i.e. the price drop in the A leg is equal in the C leg before a bottom is reached. BTC hasn&#39;t achieved that yet. A=C would be satisfied around $12k which is also where the first major high volume node sits on the volume profile (in other words there was a lot of volume traded at that $12k and below price, a lot more than in the upper reaches of the recent price range; that suggests you have holders more likely to defend $12k as support than $20k as support). So at some point we would say, BTC is going to take another big hit and that&#39;s not positive for SPY.</p><p>Ether by the way tells a slightly different story and may lead BTC&#39;s recovery.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff7b4a3384516edf55dc8cb797d86ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>ETHUSD Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)</span></p><p>So far ETHUSD has bottomed at the 0.786 retrace of the whole move up since the 2018 lows<i>and</i>that bottom satisfied the A=C condition, to within a few dollars in fact.</p><p><b>So What Does All This Mean For Stocks?</b></p><p>In our<i>Growth Investor Pro</i>service and indeed in staff personal accounts we have been moving to risk-on at the recent lows. We&#39;ve closed profitable short positions in XLE, USO and WEAT; taken profits in volatility (UVXY), cashed profitable long positions in inverse ETFs such SQQQ and SPXS, and closed short positions in QQQ. We recently opened a new TQQQ position, averaged down our ETHE in-price, averaged down our PINS in-price on news of the Elliott stake, averaged down in ARKW and OKTA and so forth. We think these long positions can pay off but we are watching the above levels and indicators very carefully indeed and expect to dial risk down some if SPY and BTC keep moving up. Our conclusion for stocks right now is, work out your levels ahead of time, stay on your toes, don&#39;t be complacent with gains, and practice the ability to become bullish or bearish depending on what the indicators are telling you, not what your cavedwelling limbic system would have you do!</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPY: Will The Market Swoon Ever End?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPY: Will The Market Swoon Ever End?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-21 17:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523935-spy-will-market-swoon-ever-end><strong>Seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe selloff in the S&P and the Nasdaq since November last year has been a textbook example of controlled demolition.No limit-down days, no Vix-spike, no panicky retail running for the door. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523935-spy-will-market-swoon-ever-end\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523935-spy-will-market-swoon-ever-end","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2252253318","content_text":"SummaryThe selloff in the S&P and the Nasdaq since November last year has been a textbook example of controlled demolition.No limit-down days, no Vix-spike, no panicky retail running for the door. Just a never-ending grind-down.Will it ever end? We think the answer is more complicated than it first appears. But we don't think it's a magical mystery tour.We believe the market can be charted quite well and key levels identified ahead of time.  We also believe crypto can be used as a canary in the coalmine.For now, we believe SPY warrants a Hold rating; we explain below the triggers that we believe justify turning more bullish or bearish.A Message From Outside The MatrixThe journey of the inquisitive investor is a lifelong one. In short trousers you may learn about company fundamentals and the import thereof. Earnings, earnings per share, p/e multiples, all that sort of thing. As you progress you begin to factor macro data into your work. GDP numbers, inflation, rates and blah. If you are notverycareful then you begin to ossify in your thinking. You see linear, directive relationships between earnings and stock prices, where only influential relationships exist. You come to expect that if inflation does X, rates will do Y, and stocks will do Z. And most of all you become locked into a way of thinking about a market trend. When it's going up, it's going up forever. And when down? Down forever.None of this is your fault. Your problem-solving conscious brain is looking for a linear equation to solve for making money, in the same way that its prehistoric antecedent learned that there are linear equations for finding shelter and food. (Cavedweller 101: always look both ways out the front of the cave door before heading out, lest a sneaky predator deems you lunch). And your limbic brain, in an opioid haze most of the time, cannot be relied upon since it favors having you run towards the gunfire or away from it in equal measure, and an autonomic shot of the wrong corticosteroid at the wrong time can cause you to become hero or zero without any conscious input on your part.This is why the best way to read markets is with a big dose of cynicism, a calm demeanor, and an understanding that unless you be J P Morgan himself, most folks are just there to be buffetted this way and that by the market. As far as the major indices go, in their options, futures or ETF clothing, you have in your favor that they are generally too big to fail for very long, that they are highly liquid, and that they are Playground Number One for Big Money who likes nothing better than a game of cat and mouse with Joe P. Retail. And taken together, that all means that the most popular index of all, the S&P 500, can be played using pure sentiment as the gauge. Reality need never feature.Fortunately you have tools available to model not-reality and you can use those tools to build a more likely outlook for stocks than your common-or-garden earnings forecasts. Technical analysis tools are, of course, simply ways to measure sentiment. You can call them something more scientific if you like, but really all they are trying to do is pattern recognition. Every TA tool says, well, usually when a security moves likethisin the past it moves likethatin the future. Beyond that, the skill is in the practitioner.Will The S&P 500 Go Up Now?Here's how the S&P 500 - using its proxy ETF, SPY - looks through the lens of a common TA tool, the Elliott Wave and Fibonacci method. Using this tool can help you prepare emotionally and financially for the trend you happen to find the market in. And this can help you prepare for trend reversals - which are the moments when Big Money truly burns small accounts, pausing only to giggle whilst sailing off into the sunset - literally - whilst grasping big chunks of folks' 401(k)s.Take a brief look at the chart and then we'll walk you through it.SPY Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)If you were sat in Fibonacci Wave 101 right now (this is a class we will teach one day, but we are only accepting Matrix-dwellers as applicants in order to maximize our own entertainment), and you knew nothing about anything, you had no Twitter, you didn't know who Bullard, Powell & Co were (maybe a law firm?), you didn't ever leave your desk to buy anything so you hadn't noticed inflation?You would say, well, that's a textbook stock chart right there. Youwouldn'tsay, gosh, will this selling ever end? And you wouldn't have been saying in 2020-2021, why, these pesky kids are crazy with their never-ending YOLO buying. You would just say, huh, fake chart, too perfect with the reversals, show me a real life one and we can talk about it.But thisisa real life chart.Here goes.From the 2016 lows, SPY puts in a Wave 1 up, peaking right before the Covid crash.From that Wave 1 high in the $340 zone comes a 0.786 retracement of the Wave 1 up, troughing at around $219. A 0.786 retrace is an important Fibonacci level and it is atextbookElliott Wave 2 down.From the Covid lows we get a Wave 3 up which peaks right around the 1.618 extension of Wave 1, which is to say around $480. Read any Elliott Wave guide and see how long a Wave 3 usually is. Answer, very often indeed they are 1.618x the length of Wave 1. As SPY hit $480 back in Q4 last year we called \"Yikes, The Top\" in ourGrowth Investor Proservice, because the index simply could not push up above that 1.618 extension, no matter how many times it tried.We then moved into a Wave 4 down, which has so far respected two Fibonacci retracement levels - the 0.236 retrace (around $419) and the 0.382 retrace (around $380). SPY tried to hold $419 as support back in February and March, failed, then treated it as resistance in May and June. The June selloff plunged below the $380 level then pushed up against it as resistance, and the index is currently thinking about whether to turn that level into support.If, big if, SPY moves up from here, then a reversal at the 0.786 for a Wave 2 low, at the 1.618 for a Wave 3 high, and a 0.382 for the Wave 4 low, is absolute textbook.Now, knowing these potential reversal levels and knowing which wave you are in can help you train your brain to deal with the situation.As the limit-down days hit in the Covid crisis you would say, well, this looks like a Wave 2 down, a brutal selloff in no time at all where shock & awe fill the air around the watercooler. Well, that and a poisonous miasma of viral load. As the 0.786 approached you would say, well, itmightplunge right past that but there's a good chance it doesn't, so I'll start thinking about buying the index again.As the 1.618 extension served as resistance on several occasions late last year, you would likely have concluded, well, it really doesn't want to go much higher - and if you looked at the QQQ and saw that it had put in a 2.618 extension at this time and was putting in a similar headbanging performance - you might have agreed further with yourself.And into the selloff this year you would have the 0.236 and the 0.382 and the 0.5 (that's $350 for SPY, plus or minus) in your sights. You would also be saying to yourself, this is a Wave 4. It's not a Shock and Awe Wave 2. It's a Slow Bleedout, Controlled Demolition Wave 4. You would say, we had a deep Wave 2 correction soprobablyWave 4 won't be so deep.Probablyit will be between the 0.382 and the 0.5 that it reverses.Well, where we sit right now in SPY is that the ETF has been down to between the 0.382 and the 0.5 retracements, reaching a local low of around $362 in mid-June. And since then it has pushed up above the 0.382 level of $380 and is thinking about holding over that level.Has The Market Stopped Selling Yet?Well, the easy answer is, on a textbook larger-degree 5 waves up off of the 2016 lows then the market looks set to reach new highs in a final Wave 5 up. Using that lens, the next move up would top out somewhere above $480 and the market would then make a deep correction - much deeper than we have experienced this year - for some months, maybe more than a year. The logic being the 5 waves up off the 2016 lows would form a large Wave 1 and the subsequent large Wave 2 we could expect to bottom between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement of that Wave 1 up. That's somewhere between $250-300 for SPY. So, if this textbook chart pattern continues, you have your levels. Risk on until SPY approaches $480, then start dialing back the risk until SPY rolls over in a convincing fashion, by which time the prudent investor will already have assembled a basket of protective instruments - puts, short index positions, and so on.Unfortunately we think it's a little more complicated than that. Sticking purely to chart analysis, and ignoring the whys and wherefores, the counterargument to the above is that the market is simply in a downtrend, and whilst that $380 can surely act as support, it will be merely until SPY hits its head on the resistance defined by that downtrend.Like this:SPY Chart II (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)So even if SPY does keep pushing up, we may run into resistance at +/-$400. Then, and only then, can we know whether truly sentiment will trump what lies outside the window. If it does, we should see SPY climb back up to that 0.236 retrace ($418ish) and beyond. And if not - a move back down to $380 and below, maybe as low as $350 (which is that 0.5 retracement of the post-Covid move up).As always, nobody can know for sure and all you can do is watch in real time to know when it's safe to be risk-on and when best to dial back. In our Growth Investor Pro service our house stance is as follows:Short-term bullish on the market until SPY approaches the $395-400 range, in which case we believe cashing in gains and de-grossing positions would be prudent. If SPY pushes up and out of that downward channel, and turns the upper resistance line into support, long positions can be safely added to in our view, in anticipation of a further rise. But if the downward channel persists and we're simply in a modest rally within a continuing bear market, time to keep cash and/or add to short positions. In our service we find the short levered index ETFs are useful instruments for this.Other Useful Indicators Include CryptoCorroborating evidence and other indicators of risk appetite? You can look at the Nasdaq if you like, but in truth whilst the timeframes are a little shortened and the price moves a little amplified vs. the S&P, the two move very much in concert. So QQQ doesn't add much visibility to the mix.Crypto however we find useful as a canary in the coalmine. For instance, when Bitcoin scares, and it scares easy right now, the index usually follows. As you can discover on FinTwit and elsewhere, BTCUSD above $20k and moving up is a useful indicator of risk-on for now. Below $20k, risk off.So in our view, if the present short term rally in BTC moves up and rolls over, at the rollover point we believe that can flag a pending rollover in SPY too.Incidentally, we believe BTC can drop a lot once it rolls over. Its correction off of the Covid highs looks incomplete to us.BTCUSD Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)Being an instrument of pure sentiment, with no reality to it at all - no earnings, no fundamental tether to anything, BTC can be charted very well with sentimental tools like Elliott Waves and Fibonacci levels. If you look at the chart above which runs from the 2018 lows, you have again some moves that fit the patterns very well. Wave 1 up, ends just below the 0.786 retrace at the Covid lows for a Wave 2 low. Then a HUGE Wave 3 up - hitting the 5.618 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1 almost to the dollar - a Wave 4 down then a final Wave 5 higher. After a full 5 wave impulsive move like that, it's common to see a three-wave A-B-C correction and common too for A=C i.e. the price drop in the A leg is equal in the C leg before a bottom is reached. BTC hasn't achieved that yet. A=C would be satisfied around $12k which is also where the first major high volume node sits on the volume profile (in other words there was a lot of volume traded at that $12k and below price, a lot more than in the upper reaches of the recent price range; that suggests you have holders more likely to defend $12k as support than $20k as support). So at some point we would say, BTC is going to take another big hit and that's not positive for SPY.Ether by the way tells a slightly different story and may lead BTC's recovery.ETHUSD Chart (TradingView, Cestrian Analysis)So far ETHUSD has bottomed at the 0.786 retrace of the whole move up since the 2018 lowsandthat bottom satisfied the A=C condition, to within a few dollars in fact.So What Does All This Mean For Stocks?In ourGrowth Investor Proservice and indeed in staff personal accounts we have been moving to risk-on at the recent lows. We've closed profitable short positions in XLE, USO and WEAT; taken profits in volatility (UVXY), cashed profitable long positions in inverse ETFs such SQQQ and SPXS, and closed short positions in QQQ. We recently opened a new TQQQ position, averaged down our ETHE in-price, averaged down our PINS in-price on news of the Elliott stake, averaged down in ARKW and OKTA and so forth. We think these long positions can pay off but we are watching the above levels and indicators very carefully indeed and expect to dial risk down some if SPY and BTC keep moving up. Our conclusion for stocks right now is, work out your levels ahead of time, stay on your toes, don't be complacent with gains, and practice the ability to become bullish or bearish depending on what the indicators are telling you, not what your cavedwelling limbic system would have you do!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9992188294,"gmtCreate":1661292273520,"gmtModify":1676536487945,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9992188294","repostId":"2261819523","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2261819523","pubTimestamp":1661263959,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2261819523?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-23 22:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2261819523","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Tesla's stock split will take place after close of trading on Aug. 24. How will that impact your portfolio and taxes?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Tesla</b>&#39;s 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders&#39; meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close of trading on Aug. 24. Shareholders of record on Aug. 17 will receive a stock dividend of two extra shares for every one share they currently own.</p><p>If you&#39;ve been wondering how stock splits work and what will happen to your Tesla shares, here are three quick items to jot down.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442bd00ec553e9dc5ae35b44257799f8\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p><h2>1. You&#39;ll have more Tesla shares after the stock split</h2><p>A stock split increases the number of shares outstanding, giving investors more shares in their account for every one share they previously owned.</p><p>After a stock split, the value of each share will be reduced to a lower price. This makes it easy for more retail investors to get their hands on a whole share of stock, because the stock price appears more affordable. If you&#39;re already an investor, your shares will be split into bite-sized pieces, but the total value of your shares will not increase.</p><p>Let&#39;s say you have one share of Tesla&#39;s stock. On the day of the 3-for-1 stock split, the company will grant you two additional shares. Each share in your portfolio would be valued at one-third the price of the original share. If one Tesla share is trading at $900 before the stock split, you&#39;ll have three Tesla shares valued at $300 each after the stock split. As you can see, the total value of your shares is still $900.</p><p>Here&#39;s how many shares you will have after the stock split based on the number of shares you have on record as of Aug. 17. All you have to do is look at the number of shares you have now, and multiply the total by three. That&#39;s how many shares you&#39;ll have after a stock split.</p><ul><li>1 share of Tesla stock = 3 shares</li><li>2 shares of Tesla stock = 6 shares</li><li>3 shares of Tesla stock = 9 shares</li><li>4 shares of Tesla stock = 12 shares</li><li>5 shares of Tesla stock = 15 shares</li></ul><h2>2. You won&#39;t have to report the stock split itself on your tax return</h2><p>A stock split doesn&#39;t increase a company&#39;s market capitalization or increase the value of your shares. You may have more shares in your account, but the original value of your shares remains the same. Therefore, a stock split in itself is not considered a taxable event. There are no IRS reporting requirements you need to adhere to during tax time.</p><h2>3. You may have to pay taxes if you sell your extra Tesla shares</h2><p>Although a stock split in itself is not taxable, selling stock for a profit after a stock split can lead to taxes. This is the case if you sell stock in a taxable brokerage account. Earning money in the stock market leads to capital gains taxes. You will be taxed at the short-term or long-term capital gains tax rate, depending on how long you had your Tesla stock before selling it. Your brokerage firm will send you the details of your transaction, so you can properly report the sale to the IRS during tax time.</p><p>Stock splits can be exciting and pain-free in the eyes of the investor. You wake up to more shares in your account after a stock split, and you don&#39;t have to worry about any tax obligations. But as soon as you decide to sell, you&#39;ll need to report your moves to the IRS. Before you make a move after a stock split, pay attention to the impact it will have on your portfolio and taxes, so you won&#39;t be surprised later.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Things You Should Know About the Tesla Stock Split\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-23 22:12 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders' meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/08/22/3-things-you-should-know-about-the-tesla-stock-spl/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2261819523","content_text":"Tesla's 3-for-1 stock split proposal won shareholder approval at the 2022 annual shareholders' meeting this month. Now, the electric vehicle maker is gearing up for its second stock split after close of trading on Aug. 24. Shareholders of record on Aug. 17 will receive a stock dividend of two extra shares for every one share they currently own.If you've been wondering how stock splits work and what will happen to your Tesla shares, here are three quick items to jot down.Image source: Getty Images.1. You'll have more Tesla shares after the stock splitA stock split increases the number of shares outstanding, giving investors more shares in their account for every one share they previously owned.After a stock split, the value of each share will be reduced to a lower price. This makes it easy for more retail investors to get their hands on a whole share of stock, because the stock price appears more affordable. If you're already an investor, your shares will be split into bite-sized pieces, but the total value of your shares will not increase.Let's say you have one share of Tesla's stock. On the day of the 3-for-1 stock split, the company will grant you two additional shares. Each share in your portfolio would be valued at one-third the price of the original share. If one Tesla share is trading at $900 before the stock split, you'll have three Tesla shares valued at $300 each after the stock split. As you can see, the total value of your shares is still $900.Here's how many shares you will have after the stock split based on the number of shares you have on record as of Aug. 17. All you have to do is look at the number of shares you have now, and multiply the total by three. That's how many shares you'll have after a stock split.1 share of Tesla stock = 3 shares2 shares of Tesla stock = 6 shares3 shares of Tesla stock = 9 shares4 shares of Tesla stock = 12 shares5 shares of Tesla stock = 15 shares2. You won't have to report the stock split itself on your tax returnA stock split doesn't increase a company's market capitalization or increase the value of your shares. You may have more shares in your account, but the original value of your shares remains the same. Therefore, a stock split in itself is not considered a taxable event. There are no IRS reporting requirements you need to adhere to during tax time.3. You may have to pay taxes if you sell your extra Tesla sharesAlthough a stock split in itself is not taxable, selling stock for a profit after a stock split can lead to taxes. This is the case if you sell stock in a taxable brokerage account. Earning money in the stock market leads to capital gains taxes. You will be taxed at the short-term or long-term capital gains tax rate, depending on how long you had your Tesla stock before selling it. Your brokerage firm will send you the details of your transaction, so you can properly report the sale to the IRS during tax time.Stock splits can be exciting and pain-free in the eyes of the investor. You wake up to more shares in your account after a stock split, and you don't have to worry about any tax obligations. But as soon as you decide to sell, you'll need to report your moves to the IRS. Before you make a move after a stock split, pay attention to the impact it will have on your portfolio and taxes, so you won't be surprised later.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001663081,"gmtCreate":1641249279157,"gmtModify":1676533586716,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"9o","listText":"9o","text":"9o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001663081","repostId":"2200242374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200242374","pubTimestamp":1641222624,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200242374?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 23:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200242374","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>I ended 2021 on a hot streak with my weekly column where I single out stocks to avoid in the week ahead. My three stocks to avoid last week were on the move -- as <b>AMC Entertainment</b> (NYSE:AMC), <b>GameStop </b>(NYSE:GME) and <b>Robinhood Markets </b>(NASDAQ:HOOD)<b> </b>were down 2%, 5%, and 6%, respectively -- averaging out to a 4.3% decline.</p><p>The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> rose 0.9% for the week, so I was the relative winner with my bearish calls for the eleventh week in a row. This week, I see <b>Constellation Brands </b>(NYSE:STZ), <b>GameStop </b>(NYSE:GME), and <b>SeaWorld Entertainment</b> (NYSE:SEAS) as stocks that you may want to consider steering clear from. Let&#39;s go over my reasons for the near-term pessimism.</p><h2>Constellation Brands</h2><p>There aren&#39;t a lot of companies reporting earnings this week, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> that could prove problematic is Constellation Brands. The leading distributor of beer, wine, and heartier spirits offers up quarterly results on Thursday morning. The company behind Corona beers, Mondavi wines, Svedka vodka, and High West Whiskey hit a new all-time high on Friday.</p><p>You may think business is booming, given its buoyant shares that have soared 20% over the past four months, but you would be wrong. Revenue is expected to inch a mere 1% higher this fiscal year, and earnings have fallen short of analyst estimates in back-to-back quarters.</p><p>With a dominant share of the high-end beer market, I&#39;m not bearish on Constellation&#39;s long-term prospects. The rub this week is that the stock is at a new peak on uninspiring top-line growth and bad momentum with its recent bottom-line results. It&#39;s going to need a monster report on Thursday if it wants Wall Street to raise a toast to Constellation Brands.</p><h2>GameStop</h2><p>Picking GameStop for the third week in a row as a stock to avoid may seem to be a case of pushing my luck, but that&#39;s the kind of dedication diehard gamers should appreciate. GameStop is doing some things right, and later this month it will finish a fiscal year with positive top-line growth for the first time in four years.</p><p>The counter to that argument is that after back-to-back years of sales declines of more than 20% an uptick in the teens won&#39;t even get GameStop back to where it was two years ago. GameStop has nearly $6 billion in trailing revenue, but that&#39;s well shy of its peak of $9.5 billion nine years earlier.</p><p>The bullish case for the original meme stock made sense a year ago when short interest was greater than 100%. Today it rests at a yawn-worthy 11%. It&#39;s overvalued by most metrics, and it has posted larger-than-expected deficits in back-to-back quarters. Meme stock investors will probably move to something more shiny and new in 2022.</p><h2>SeaWorld Entertainment</h2><p>Last week I went for stocks with recent sharp declines, figuring that they would be under selling pressure as investors lock in losses for their 2021 taxes. It&#39;s January, and a lot of last year&#39;s dogs could bounce back this month. I screened for big winners, and out of the nearly 160 stocks with market caps of at least $1 billion that more than doubled in 2021, I tried to fish for one that I think could be susceptible in the near term. A stock I own nibbled on my hook.</p><p>I&#39;m a SeaWorld Entertainment investor, and a fan of how they&#39;ve been able to blend animal-themed exhibits with thrill rides and family attractions. However, I don&#39;t think SeaWorld should&#39;ve doubled last year. The world&#39;s largest theme park operator&#39;s stock actually declined in 2021, and now we have COVID-19 cases surging in all of the states where SeaWorld has a presence. SeaWorld likely had a strong holiday quarter, so I can see it moving higher in February, when it reports financial results. Between now and then it could be vulnerable to more negative pandemic updates.</p><p>If you&#39;re looking for safe stocks, you aren&#39;t likely to find them in Constellation Brands, GameStop, and SeaWorld Entertainment this week.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-03 23:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/03/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>I ended 2021 on a hot streak with my weekly column where I single out stocks to avoid in the week ahead. My three stocks to avoid last week were on the move -- as AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/03/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood","GME":"游戏驿站","BK4539":"次新股","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","AMC":"AMC院线","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4169":"酿酒商与葡萄酒商","STZ":"星座品牌","BK4216":"消闲设施"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/03/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200242374","content_text":"I ended 2021 on a hot streak with my weekly column where I single out stocks to avoid in the week ahead. My three stocks to avoid last week were on the move -- as AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC), GameStop (NYSE:GME) and Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) were down 2%, 5%, and 6%, respectively -- averaging out to a 4.3% decline.The S&P 500 rose 0.9% for the week, so I was the relative winner with my bearish calls for the eleventh week in a row. This week, I see Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), GameStop (NYSE:GME), and SeaWorld Entertainment (NYSE:SEAS) as stocks that you may want to consider steering clear from. Let's go over my reasons for the near-term pessimism.Constellation BrandsThere aren't a lot of companies reporting earnings this week, but one that could prove problematic is Constellation Brands. The leading distributor of beer, wine, and heartier spirits offers up quarterly results on Thursday morning. The company behind Corona beers, Mondavi wines, Svedka vodka, and High West Whiskey hit a new all-time high on Friday.You may think business is booming, given its buoyant shares that have soared 20% over the past four months, but you would be wrong. Revenue is expected to inch a mere 1% higher this fiscal year, and earnings have fallen short of analyst estimates in back-to-back quarters.With a dominant share of the high-end beer market, I'm not bearish on Constellation's long-term prospects. The rub this week is that the stock is at a new peak on uninspiring top-line growth and bad momentum with its recent bottom-line results. It's going to need a monster report on Thursday if it wants Wall Street to raise a toast to Constellation Brands.GameStopPicking GameStop for the third week in a row as a stock to avoid may seem to be a case of pushing my luck, but that's the kind of dedication diehard gamers should appreciate. GameStop is doing some things right, and later this month it will finish a fiscal year with positive top-line growth for the first time in four years.The counter to that argument is that after back-to-back years of sales declines of more than 20% an uptick in the teens won't even get GameStop back to where it was two years ago. GameStop has nearly $6 billion in trailing revenue, but that's well shy of its peak of $9.5 billion nine years earlier.The bullish case for the original meme stock made sense a year ago when short interest was greater than 100%. Today it rests at a yawn-worthy 11%. It's overvalued by most metrics, and it has posted larger-than-expected deficits in back-to-back quarters. Meme stock investors will probably move to something more shiny and new in 2022.SeaWorld EntertainmentLast week I went for stocks with recent sharp declines, figuring that they would be under selling pressure as investors lock in losses for their 2021 taxes. It's January, and a lot of last year's dogs could bounce back this month. I screened for big winners, and out of the nearly 160 stocks with market caps of at least $1 billion that more than doubled in 2021, I tried to fish for one that I think could be susceptible in the near term. A stock I own nibbled on my hook.I'm a SeaWorld Entertainment investor, and a fan of how they've been able to blend animal-themed exhibits with thrill rides and family attractions. However, I don't think SeaWorld should've doubled last year. The world's largest theme park operator's stock actually declined in 2021, and now we have COVID-19 cases surging in all of the states where SeaWorld has a presence. SeaWorld likely had a strong holiday quarter, so I can see it moving higher in February, when it reports financial results. Between now and then it could be vulnerable to more negative pandemic updates.If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Constellation Brands, GameStop, and SeaWorld Entertainment this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003705740,"gmtCreate":1641081460132,"gmtModify":1676533569315,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003705740","repostId":"2200448674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200448674","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1641028848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200448674?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-01 17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng Says 16,000 Vehicles Were Delivered In Dec, A 181% Increase Y-O-Y","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200448674","media":"Reuters","summary":"Jan 1 (Reuters) - XPeng Inc   :* ANNOUNCES VEHICLE DELIVERY RESULTS FOR DECEMBER AND FOURTH QUARTER ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Jan 1 (Reuters) - XPeng Inc   :</p><p>* ANNOUNCES VEHICLE DELIVERY RESULTS FOR DECEMBER AND FOURTH QUARTER 2021</p><p>* 16,000 SMART EVS DELIVERED IN DECEMBER</p><p>* 16,000 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN DECEMBER 2021, A 181% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* 41,751 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN Q4 2021, A 222% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* 98,155 TOTAL VEHICLES DELIVERED IN 2021, A 263% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* CUMULATIVE DELIVERIES REACHED 137,953 AS OF END OF DECEMBER 2021</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng Says 16,000 Vehicles Were Delivered In Dec, A 181% Increase Y-O-Y</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng Says 16,000 Vehicles Were Delivered In Dec, A 181% Increase Y-O-Y\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-01 17:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Jan 1 (Reuters) - XPeng Inc   :</p><p>* ANNOUNCES VEHICLE DELIVERY RESULTS FOR DECEMBER AND FOURTH QUARTER 2021</p><p>* 16,000 SMART EVS DELIVERED IN DECEMBER</p><p>* 16,000 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN DECEMBER 2021, A 181% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* 41,751 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN Q4 2021, A 222% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* 98,155 TOTAL VEHICLES DELIVERED IN 2021, A 263% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR</p><p>* CUMULATIVE DELIVERIES REACHED 137,953 AS OF END OF DECEMBER 2021</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1119":"汽车制造商","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1587":"次新股","BK1539":"汽车股","BK1588":"回港中概股"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200448674","content_text":"Jan 1 (Reuters) - XPeng Inc   :* ANNOUNCES VEHICLE DELIVERY RESULTS FOR DECEMBER AND FOURTH QUARTER 2021* 16,000 SMART EVS DELIVERED IN DECEMBER* 16,000 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN DECEMBER 2021, A 181% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR* 41,751 VEHICLES DELIVERED IN Q4 2021, A 222% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR* 98,155 TOTAL VEHICLES DELIVERED IN 2021, A 263% INCREASE YEAR-OVER-YEAR* CUMULATIVE DELIVERIES REACHED 137,953 AS OF END OF DECEMBER 2021","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009065016,"gmtCreate":1640388285718,"gmtModify":1676533518512,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009065016","repostId":"1156159690","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156159690","pubTimestamp":1640335867,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156159690?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-24 16:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What are MKM Partners 'Black Swan' Internet predictions for 2022?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156159690","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"As the year comes to a close, Wall Street analysts are practically falling over themselves with almost daily serious predictions aboutwhat to expect from the tech sector in 2022.So, it should come as no surprise that, like many analysts, MKM Partners managing director Rohit Kulkarni came out with a list of 10 things that could shape the Internet industry next year. However, instead of diving into matters such as revenue growth rates and price-to-earnings ratios, Kulkarni released a slate of \"Bla","content":"<p>As the year comes to a close, Wall Street analysts are practically falling over themselves with almost daily serious predictions aboutwhat to expect from the tech sector in 2022.</p>\n<p>So, it should come as no surprise that, like many analysts, MKM Partners managing director Rohit Kulkarni came out with a list of 10 things that could shape the Internet industry next year. However, instead of diving into matters such as revenue growth rates and price-to-earnings ratios, Kulkarni released a slate of \"Black Swan\"--or, High-Impact-Low-Probability [HILP]--predictions for 2022. Kulkarni said these ideas \"have a very low likelihood of occurrence, but we wouldn't assign a zero probability\" chance of then happening.</p>\n<p>The \"HILP\" predictions Kulkarni has for 2022 include \"consumers [will] return to brick and mortar stores and millennials and Gen Z start watching TV.\" Kulkarni said this could result from Covid-19 vaccinations reaching mass-population levels and reaching an end to the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Kulkarni said Facebook's(NASDAQ:FB)<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CASH\">Meta</a> could launch its own cryptocurrency that could start displacing several traditional fiat currencies, and that mega cap tech companies will manage to not pay any fines to U.S. or European regulators regarding legal cases currently in the works.</p>\n<p>\"We have stopped counting the number of lawsuits facing Big Tech,\" Kulkarni said. \"However, there is fairly limited consensus in the ideas or bills presented to date, and Congress has been focused on the pandemic and infrastructure bill for 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Kulkarni's other Black Swan predictions are:</li>\n <li>SPAC IPOs will outperform traditional IPOs and direct stock listings.</li>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>(NYSE:UBER)launches its own robotaxi service in several U.S. cities.</li>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>(NYSE:TWTR)and Pinterest(NYSE:PINS)are acquired and are no longer independent public companies.</li>\n <li>DoorDash(NYSE:DASH)acquires Instacart for between $40B-50B and spurs a new round of grocery delivery wars.</li>\n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>(NASDAQ:AAPL)reaches $10B in annual revenue run rate from advertising due to changes in its iOS ad policies.</li>\n <li>Google's(NASDAQ:GOOG)YouTube get in position to go public.</li>\n <li>Snap(NYSE:SNAP)and TikTok (BDNCE) look to capitalize on their younger audiences by acquiring movie or gaming studios so they can boost their original video content offerings.</li>\n <li>As a \"bonus\" prediction, Kulkarni forecasts that as the pandemic ends, more people will go back to working out at gyms and neighborhood parks, and this will result in difficulty in forecasting sales for the likes of Peloton(NASDAQ:PTON). The home-exercise technology company also had its sails trimmed on Thursday when analysts at Citi cut their price target on Peloton's (PTON) stock to $38 a share on expectations of higher expenses and&nbsp;falling demand for Peloton (PTON) products next year.</li>\n</ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are MKM Partners 'Black Swan' Internet predictions for 2022?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are MKM Partners 'Black Swan' Internet predictions for 2022?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-24 16:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3783065-mkm-black-swan-look-at-internet-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the year comes to a close, Wall Street analysts are practically falling over themselves with almost daily serious predictions aboutwhat to expect from the tech sector in 2022.\nSo, it should come as...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3783065-mkm-black-swan-look-at-internet-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter","GOOG":"谷歌","DASH":"DoorDash, Inc.","AAPL":"苹果","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","SNAP":"Snap Inc","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3783065-mkm-black-swan-look-at-internet-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1156159690","content_text":"As the year comes to a close, Wall Street analysts are practically falling over themselves with almost daily serious predictions aboutwhat to expect from the tech sector in 2022.\nSo, it should come as no surprise that, like many analysts, MKM Partners managing director Rohit Kulkarni came out with a list of 10 things that could shape the Internet industry next year. However, instead of diving into matters such as revenue growth rates and price-to-earnings ratios, Kulkarni released a slate of \"Black Swan\"--or, High-Impact-Low-Probability [HILP]--predictions for 2022. Kulkarni said these ideas \"have a very low likelihood of occurrence, but we wouldn't assign a zero probability\" chance of then happening.\nThe \"HILP\" predictions Kulkarni has for 2022 include \"consumers [will] return to brick and mortar stores and millennials and Gen Z start watching TV.\" Kulkarni said this could result from Covid-19 vaccinations reaching mass-population levels and reaching an end to the pandemic.\nKulkarni said Facebook's(NASDAQ:FB)Meta could launch its own cryptocurrency that could start displacing several traditional fiat currencies, and that mega cap tech companies will manage to not pay any fines to U.S. or European regulators regarding legal cases currently in the works.\n\"We have stopped counting the number of lawsuits facing Big Tech,\" Kulkarni said. \"However, there is fairly limited consensus in the ideas or bills presented to date, and Congress has been focused on the pandemic and infrastructure bill for 2021.\n\nKulkarni's other Black Swan predictions are:\nSPAC IPOs will outperform traditional IPOs and direct stock listings.\nUber(NYSE:UBER)launches its own robotaxi service in several U.S. cities.\nTwitter(NYSE:TWTR)and Pinterest(NYSE:PINS)are acquired and are no longer independent public companies.\nDoorDash(NYSE:DASH)acquires Instacart for between $40B-50B and spurs a new round of grocery delivery wars.\nApple(NASDAQ:AAPL)reaches $10B in annual revenue run rate from advertising due to changes in its iOS ad policies.\nGoogle's(NASDAQ:GOOG)YouTube get in position to go public.\nSnap(NYSE:SNAP)and TikTok (BDNCE) look to capitalize on their younger audiences by acquiring movie or gaming studios so they can boost their original video content offerings.\nAs a \"bonus\" prediction, Kulkarni forecasts that as the pandemic ends, more people will go back to working out at gyms and neighborhood parks, and this will result in difficulty in forecasting sales for the likes of Peloton(NASDAQ:PTON). The home-exercise technology company also had its sails trimmed on Thursday when analysts at Citi cut their price target on Peloton's (PTON) stock to $38 a share on expectations of higher expenses and falling demand for Peloton (PTON) products next year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9003134574,"gmtCreate":1640908311214,"gmtModify":1676533552898,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9003134574","repostId":"2195928314","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2195928314","pubTimestamp":1640899322,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2195928314?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-31 05:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Closes Down, Indexes Still Poised for Big Annual Gains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2195928314","media":"Reuters","summary":"Dec 30 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Thursday, retreating late in thin holiday volume from","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Dec 30 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Thursday, retreating late in thin holiday volume from record highs set early in the session on strong U.S. data including a drop in weekly claims for U.S. unemployment benefits.</p><p>With <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> trading day left, the S&amp;P 500 was set to end the year more than 27% higher, with the Nasdaq up about 23% and the Dow&#39;s annual rise just shy of 20%. Each of Wall Street&#39;s main indexes was poised for its sharpest three-year surge since 1997-99.</p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 90.55 points, or 0.25%, to 36,398.08, the S&amp;P 500 lost 14.33 points, or 0.30%, to 4,778.73 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.65 points, or 0.16%, to 15,741.56.</p><p>Four of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes traded higher, led by the real estate sector.</p><p>Investors cheered a U.S. Labor Department report that the number of Americans filing for new unemployment claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 in the week leading up to Christmas, from a revised 206,000 a week earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast weekly applications would rise to 208,000.</p><p>In other strong U.S. data, the Chicago purchasing managers&#39; index (PMI) delivered a print of 63.1, a monthly increase of 1.3 points and 1.1 points above consensus.</p><p>A PMI number over 50 signifies expanded activity over the previous month.</p><p>Equities have rallied recently on some of the thinnest trading volumes that U.S. stock exchanges have seen due to the holidays. Investors were encouraged by growing evidence that the Omicron variant causes less-severe infections of COVID-19 than the Delta strain.</p><p>On Wednesday, top U.S. infectious disease adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said the surge in cases of the Omicron variant should peak by the end of January.</p><p>&#34;The strong manufacturer data out of Chicago and an impressive initial jobless claims continue to show an economy that is quite healthy, omits the continued worries obviously over the Omicron variants,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p>Detrick cautioned that low holiday season trading volume could exaggerate price moves.</p><p>Stock markets have been in a seasonally strong &#34;Santa Claus Rally&#34; that typically occurs in the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year.</p><p>Among individual stocks, Biogen Inc slipped 7.09%, giving back gains from the prior session as Samsung BioLogics denied a media report that said the South Korean firm was in talks to buy the U.S. drugmaker.</p><p>Walt Disney Co stock saw over 20% losses year-to-date while the overall Dow Jones stock index is on track for a 19% gain for the year.</p><p>In 2022, investors will shift their attention to expected U.S. interest rate hikes and midterm elections for U.S. Congress, where President Joe Biden&#39;s Democrats now hold a slim majority.</p><p>“Midterm years tend to be the most volatile out of the four-year cycle. There&#39;s actually a 17% average peak to trunk correction during a midterm year, which is the largest of the four years.” Detrick added, “Investors were pretty spoiled this year. So be aware that next year won’t be as easy.”</p><p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.08 billion shares, compared with the 10.83 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.26-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.47-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 64 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 141 new lows.</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Closes Down, Indexes Still Poised for Big Annual Gains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Closes Down, Indexes Still Poised for Big Annual Gains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-31 05:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-closes-212202964.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Dec 30 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Thursday, retreating late in thin holiday volume from record highs set early in the session on strong U.S. data including a drop in weekly claims for U.S...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-closes-212202964.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BIIB":"渤健公司","BK4139":"生物科技","COMP":"Compass, Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-wall-street-closes-212202964.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2195928314","content_text":"Dec 30 (Reuters) - Wall Street closed lower on Thursday, retreating late in thin holiday volume from record highs set early in the session on strong U.S. data including a drop in weekly claims for U.S. unemployment benefits.With one trading day left, the S&P 500 was set to end the year more than 27% higher, with the Nasdaq up about 23% and the Dow's annual rise just shy of 20%. Each of Wall Street's main indexes was poised for its sharpest three-year surge since 1997-99.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 90.55 points, or 0.25%, to 36,398.08, the S&P 500 lost 14.33 points, or 0.30%, to 4,778.73 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.65 points, or 0.16%, to 15,741.56.Four of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes traded higher, led by the real estate sector.Investors cheered a U.S. Labor Department report that the number of Americans filing for new unemployment claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 198,000 in the week leading up to Christmas, from a revised 206,000 a week earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast weekly applications would rise to 208,000.In other strong U.S. data, the Chicago purchasing managers' index (PMI) delivered a print of 63.1, a monthly increase of 1.3 points and 1.1 points above consensus.A PMI number over 50 signifies expanded activity over the previous month.Equities have rallied recently on some of the thinnest trading volumes that U.S. stock exchanges have seen due to the holidays. Investors were encouraged by growing evidence that the Omicron variant causes less-severe infections of COVID-19 than the Delta strain.On Wednesday, top U.S. infectious disease adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci said the surge in cases of the Omicron variant should peak by the end of January.\"The strong manufacturer data out of Chicago and an impressive initial jobless claims continue to show an economy that is quite healthy, omits the continued worries obviously over the Omicron variants,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.Detrick cautioned that low holiday season trading volume could exaggerate price moves.Stock markets have been in a seasonally strong \"Santa Claus Rally\" that typically occurs in the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year.Among individual stocks, Biogen Inc slipped 7.09%, giving back gains from the prior session as Samsung BioLogics denied a media report that said the South Korean firm was in talks to buy the U.S. drugmaker.Walt Disney Co stock saw over 20% losses year-to-date while the overall Dow Jones stock index is on track for a 19% gain for the year.In 2022, investors will shift their attention to expected U.S. interest rate hikes and midterm elections for U.S. Congress, where President Joe Biden's Democrats now hold a slim majority.“Midterm years tend to be the most volatile out of the four-year cycle. There's actually a 17% average peak to trunk correction during a midterm year, which is the largest of the four years.” Detrick added, “Investors were pretty spoiled this year. So be aware that next year won’t be as easy.”Volume on U.S. exchanges was 8.08 billion shares, compared with the 10.83 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.26-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.47-to-1 ratio favored advancers.The S&P 500 posted 64 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 141 new lows.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":59,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968797944,"gmtCreate":1669328433589,"gmtModify":1676538182447,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968797944","repostId":"2285384020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2285384020","pubTimestamp":1669302016,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2285384020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-24 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Latest Memo From Howard Marks: What Really Matters?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2285384020","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryThe vast majority of investors can’t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how th","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>The vast majority of investors can’t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen.</li><li>Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they’re for trading, not for owning.</li><li>Most individual investors and anyone who understands the limitations regarding outperformance would probably be best off holding index funds over the long run.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b128f2533a162219e4fb760585c5b07f\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>We Are</span></p><p>I&#39;ve gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year - plus some recent musings and conversations - to form the subject of this memo: what really matters or should matter for investors. I&#39;ll start by examining a number of things that I think don&#39;t matter.</p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: Short-Term Events</h2><p>In <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i> (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in <i>I Beg to Differ</i> (July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree&#39;s June 21 conference in London: How bad will inflation get? How much will the Fed raise interest rates to fight it? Will those increases cause a recession? How bad and for how long? The bottom line, I told the attendees, was that these things all relate to the short term, and this is what I know about the short term:</p><ul><li><p>Most investors can&#39;t do a superior job of predicting short-term phenomena like these.</p></li><li><p>Thus, they shouldn&#39;t put much stock in opinions on these subjects (theirs or those of others).</p></li><li><p>They&#39;re unlikely to make major changes in their portfolios in response to these opinions.</p></li><li><p>The changes they do make are unlikely to be consistently right.</p></li><li><p>Thus, these aren&#39;t the things that matter.</p></li></ul><p>Consider an example. In response to the first tremors of the Global Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve began to cut the fed funds rate in 3Q2007. They then lowered it to zero around the end of 2008 and left it there for seven years. In late 2015, virtually the only question I got was &#34;When will the first rate increase occur?&#34; My answer was always the same: &#34;Why do you care? If I say &#39;February,&#39; what will you do? And if I later change my mind and say &#39;May,&#39; what will you do differently? If everyone knows rates are about to rise, what difference does it make which month the process starts?&#34; No one ever offered a convincing answer. Investors probably think asking such questions is part of behaving professionally, but I doubt they could explain why.</p><p>The vast majority of investors can&#39;t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen. In <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i>, I wrote at length about the way unforeseen events make a hash of economic and market forecasts. In summary, most forecasts are extrapolations, and most of the time things don&#39;t change, so extrapolations are usually correct, but not particularly profitable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of deviations from trends can be very profitable, but they&#39;re hard to make and hard to act on. These are some of the reasons why most people can&#39;t predict the future well enough to repeatably produce superior performance.</p><p>Why is doing this so hard? Don&#39;t most of us know what events are likely to transpire? Can&#39;t we just buy the securities of the companies that are most likely to benefit from those events? In the long run, maybe, but I want to turn to a theme that Bruce Karsh has been emphasizing lately, regarding a major reason why it&#39;s particularly challenging to profit from a short-term focus: <b>It&#39;s verydifficult to know which expectations regarding events are already incorporated in security prices.</b></p><p>One of the critical mistakes people are guilty of - we see it all the time in the media - is believing that changes in security prices are the result of events: that favorable events lead to rising prices and negative events lead to falling prices. I think that&#39;s what most people believe - especially first-level thinkers - but that&#39;s not right. <b>Security prices are determined by events and how investors react to those events, which is largely a function of how the events stack up against investors&#39; expectations.</b></p><p>How can we explain a company that reports higher earnings, only to see its stock price drop? The answer, of course, is that the reported improvement fell short of expectations and thus disappointed investors. So, at the most elementary level, it&#39;s not whether the event is simply positive or not, but how the event compares with what was expected.</p><p>In my earliest working years, I used to spend a few minutes each day looking over the earnings reports printed in <i>The Wall Street Journal</i>. But after a while, it dawned on me that since I didn&#39;t know what numbers had been expected, I had no idea whether an announcement from a company I didn&#39;t follow was good news or bad.</p><p>Investors can become experts regarding a few companies and their securities, but no one is likely to know enough about macro events to (A) be able to understand the macro expectations that underlie the prices of securities, (B) anticipate the broad events, and (C) predict how those securities will react. Where can a prospective buyer look to find out what the investors who set securities prices already anticipate in terms of inflation, GDP, or unemployment? Inferences regarding expectations can sometimes be drawn from asset prices, but the inferred levels often aren&#39;t proved correct when the actual results come in.</p><p>Further, in the short term, security prices are highly susceptible to random and exogenous events that can swamp the impact of fundamental events. <b>Macro events and the ups and downs of companies&#39; near-term fortunes are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of - or relevant to - companies&#39; long-term prospects. So little attention should be paid to them.</b> For example, companies often deliberately reduce current earnings by investing in the future of their businesses; thus, low reported earnings can imply high future earnings, not continued low earnings. To know the difference, you have to have an in-depth understanding of the company.</p><p>No one should be fooled into thinking security pricing is a dependable process that accurately follows a set of rules. Events are unpredictable; they can be altered by unpredictable influences, and investors&#39; reactions to the events that occur are unpredictable. Due to the presence of so much uncertainty, most investors are unable to improve their results by focusing on the short term.</p><p>It&#39;s clear from observation that security prices fluctuate much more than economic output or company profits. <b>What accounts for this? It must be the fact that, in the short term, the ups and downs of prices are influenced far more by swings in investor psychology than by changes in companies&#39; long-term prospects. Because swings in psychology matter more in the near term than changes in fundamentals - and are so hard to predict - most short-term trading is a waste of time... or worse.</b></p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: The Trading Mentality</h2><p>Over the years, my memos have often included some of my father&#39;s jokes from the 1950s, based on my strong belief that humor often reflects truths about the human condition. Given its relevance here, I&#39;m going to devote a bit of space to a joke I&#39;ve shared before:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af510c5d038ecaeaa793f3d6b442a86a\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"590\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>I include this old joke because I believe most people treat stocks and bonds like something to trade, not something to own.</p><p><b>If you ask Warren Buffett to describe the foundation of his approach to investing, he&#39;ll probably start by insisting that stocks should be thought of as ownership interests in companies.</b> Most people don&#39;t start companies with the goal of selling them in the short term, but rather they seek to operate them, enjoy profitability, and expand the business. Of course, founders do these things to ultimately make money, but they&#39;re likely to view the money as the byproduct of having run a successful business. Buffett says people who buy stocks should think of themselves as partners of owners with whom they share goals.</p><p>But I think that&#39;s rarely the case. <b>Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they&#39;re for trading, not for owning.</b> This means they abandon the owner mentality and instead act like gamblers or speculators who bet on stock price moves. The results are often unpleasant.</p><p>The DALBAR Institute 2012 study showed that investors receive three percentage points less per year than the S&amp;P 500 generated from 1992 to 2012, and the average holding period for a typical investor is six months. Six Months!! When you hold a stock for less than a year, you are not using the stock market to acquire business ownership positions and participate in the growth of that business. Instead, you are just guessing at short-term news and expectations, and your returns are based on how other people react to that news information. In aggregate, that kind of attitude gets you three percentage points less per year than you&#39;d get from doing nothing at all beyond making the initial investment in the index fund of the S&amp;P 500. (&#34;Fidelity&#39;s Best Investors Are Dead,&#34; <i>The Conservative Income Investor</i>, April 8, 2020)</p><p>To me, buying for a short-term trade equates to forgetting about your sports team&#39;s chances of winning the championship and instead betting on who&#39;s going to succeed in the next play, period, or inning.</p><p>Let&#39;s think about the logic. You buy a stock because you think it&#39;s worth more than you have to pay for it, whereas the seller considers it fully priced. Someday, if things go well, it&#39;ll become fully priced, in your opinion, meaning you&#39;ll sell it. The person you sell it to, however, will buy it because he thinks it&#39;s worth still more. We used to talk about this process as being reliant on the Greater Fool Theory: No matter what price I pay for a stock, there will always be someone who will buy it from me for more, despite the fact that I&#39;m selling because I&#39;ve concluded that it has reached full value.</p><p>Every buyer is motivated by the belief that the stock will eventually be worth more than today&#39;s price (a view the seller presumably doesn&#39;t share). The key question is what type of thinking underlies these purchases. <b>Are the buyers buying because this is a company they&#39;d like to own a piece of for years? Or are they merely betting that the price will go up?</b> The transactions may look the same from the outside, but I wonder about the thought process and thus the soundness of the logic.</p><p><b>Each time a stock is traded, one side is wrong and one is right. But if what you&#39;re doing is betting on trends in popularity, and thus the direction of price moves over the next month, quarter, or year, is it realistic to believe you&#39;ll be right more often than the person on the other side of the trade?</b> Maybe the decline of active management can be attributed to the many active managers who placed bets on the direction of stock prices in the short term, instead of picking companies they wanted to own part of for years. It&#39;s all a matter of the underlying mentality.</p><p>I had a long debate on this topic with my father back in 1969, when I lived with him during my first months at First National City Bank. (It&#39;s amazing for me to think back to those days; he was so much younger than I am today.) I told him I thought buying a stock should be motivated by something other than the hope that the price would rise, and I suggested this might be the expectation that dividends would increase over time. He countered that no one buys stocks for the dividends - they buy because they think the price will go up. But what would trigger the rise?</p><p>Wanting to own a business for its commercial merit and long-term earnings potential is a good reason to be a stockholder, and if these expectations are borne out, a good reason to believe the stock price will rise. In the absence of that, buying in the hope of appreciation merely amounts to trying to guess which industries and companies investors will favor in the future. Ben Graham famously said, &#34;In the short run, a market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.&#34; <b>While none of this is easy, as Charlie Munger once told me, carefully weighing long-term merit should produce better results than trying to guess at short-term swings in popularity.</b></p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: Short-Term Performance</h2><p>Given the possible contributors to short-term investment performance, reported results can present a highly misleading picture, and here I&#39;m talking mostly about superior gains in good times. I feel there are three ingredients for success during good times - aggressiveness, timing, and skill - and if you have enough aggressiveness at the right time, you don&#39;t need that much skill. We all know that in good times, the highest returns often go to the person whose portfolio incorporates the most risk, beta, and correlation. Having such a portfolio isn&#39;t a mark of distinction or insight if the investor is a perma-bull who&#39;s always positioned aggressively. Finally, random events can have an overwhelming impact on returns - in either direction - in a given quarter or year.</p><p>One of the recurring themes in my memos is the idea that the quality of a decision cannot be determined by the outcome alone. Decisions often lead to negative outcomes even when they&#39;re well-reasoned and based on all the available information. On the other hand, we all know people - even occasionally ourselves - who&#39;ve been right for the wrong reason. Hidden information and random developments can frustrate even the best thinkers&#39; decisions. (However, when outcomes are considered over a long period of time and a large number of trials, the better decision maker is overwhelmingly likely to have a higher proportion of successes.)</p><p><b>Obviously, no one should attach much significance to returns in one quarter or year. Investment performance is simply one result drawn from the full range of returns that could have materialized, and in the short term, it can be heavily influenced by random events. Thus, a single quarter&#39;s return is likely to be a very weak indicator of an investor&#39;s ability, if that.</b> Deciding whether a manager has a special skill - or whether an asset allocation is appropriate for the long run - on the basis of one quarter or year is like forming an opinion of a baseball player on the basis of one trip to the plate, or of a racehorse based on one race.</p><p>We know short-term performance doesn&#39;t matter much. And yet, most of the investment committees I&#39;ve sat on have had the latest quarter&#39;s performance as the first item on the agenda and devoted a meaningful portion of each meeting to it. The discussion is usually extensive, but it rarely leads to significant action. So why do we keep doing it? For the same reasons investors pay attention to forecasting, as described in <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i>: &#34;everyone does it,&#34; and &#34;it would be irresponsible not to.&#34;</p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: Volatility</h2><p>I haven&#39;t written much about volatility, other than to say I strongly disagree with people who consider it the definition or essence of risk. I&#39;ve described my belief that the academics who developed the Chicago School theory of investment in the early 1960s (A) wanted to examine the relationship between investment returns and risk, (B) needed a number quantifying risk that they could put into their calculations, and (C) undoubtedly chose volatility as a proxy for risk for the simple reason that it was the only quantifiable metric available. I define risk as the probability of a bad outcome, and volatility is, at best, an indicator of the presence of risk. But volatility is not risk. That&#39;s all I&#39;m going to say on that subject.</p><p><b>What I want to talk about here is the extent to which thinking and caring about volatility has warped the investing world over the 50-plus years that I&#39;ve been in it.</b> It was a great advantage for me to have attended the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago in the late &#39;60s and to have been part of one of the very first classes that taught new theories. I learned about the efficient market hypothesis, the capital asset pricing model, the random walk, the importance of risk aversion, and the role of volatility as risk. While volatility wasn&#39;t a topic of conversation when I got into the real world of investing in 1969, the practice soon caught up with the theory.</p><p>In particular, the Sharpe ratio was adopted as the measure of risk-adjusted return. It&#39;s the ratio of a portfolio&#39;s excess return (the part of its return that exceeds the yield on T-bills) to its volatility. The more return per unit of volatility, the higher the risk-adjusted return. Risk adjustment is an essential concept, and returns should absolutely be evaluated relative to the risk that was taken to achieve them. Everyone cites Sharpe ratios, including Oaktree, because it&#39;s the only quantitative tool available for the job. (If investors, consultants, and clients didn&#39;t use the Sharpe ratio, they&#39;d have no metric at all, and if they tried to substitute fundamental riskiness for volatility in their assessments, they&#39;d find that there&#39;s no way to quantify it.) <b>The Sharpe ratio may hint at risk-adjusted performance in the same way that volatility hints at risk, but since volatility isn&#39;t risk, the Sharpe ratio is a very imperfect measure.</b></p><p>Take, for example, one of the asset classes I started working with in 1978: high-yield bonds. At Oaktree, we think moderately-above-benchmark returns can be produced with substantially less risk than the benchmark, and this shows up in superior Sharpe ratios. But the real risk in high-yield bonds - the one we care about and have a history of reducing - is the risk of default. We don&#39;t much care about reducing volatility, and we don&#39;t take conscious steps to do so. We believe high Sharpe ratios can result from - and perhaps are correlated with - the actions we take to reduce defaults.</p><p><b>Volatility is particularly irrelevant in our of fixed income or &#34;credit.&#34;</b> Bonds, notes, and loans represent contractual promises of periodic interest and repayment at maturity. <b>Most of the time when you buy a bond with an 8% yield, you&#39;ll basically get the 8% yield over its life, regardless of whether the bond price goes up or down in the interim.</b> I say &#34;basically&#34; because, if the price falls, you&#39;ll have the opportunity to reinvest the interest payments at yields above 8%, so your holding-period return will creep up. Thus, the downward price volatility that so many revile is actually a good thing - as long as it doesn&#39;t presage defaults. (Note that, as indicated in this paragraph, &#34;volatility&#34; is often a misnomer. Strategists and the media often warn that &#34;there may be volatility ahead.&#34; What they really mean is &#34;there may be price declines ahead.&#34; No one worries about, or minds experiencing, volatility to the upside.)</p><p><b>It&#39;s essential to recognize that protection from volatility generally isn&#39;t a free good. Reducing volatility for its own sake is a sub-optimizing strategy: It should be presumed that favoring lower-volatility assets and approaches will - all things being equal - lead to lower returns.</b> Only managers with superior skill, or alpha (see page 11), will be able to overcome this negative presumption and reduce return less than they reduce volatility.</p><p>Nevertheless, since many clients, bosses, and other constituents are uncomfortable with radical ups and downs (well, mostly with downs), asset managers often take steps to reduce volatility. Consider what happened after institutional investors began to pile into hedge funds following the three-year decline of stocks brought on by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000. (This was the first three-year decline since 1939-41.) Hedge funds - previously members of a cottage industry where most funds had a few hundred million dollars of capital from wealthy individuals - did much better than stocks in the downdraft. Institutions were attracted to these funds&#39; low volatility, and thus invested billions in them.</p><p>The average hedge fund delivered the stability the institutions wanted. But somewhere in the shuffle, the idea of earning high returns with low volatility got lost. Instead, hedge fund managers pursued low volatility as a goal in itself, since they knew it was what the institutions were after. As a result, over roughly the last 18 years, the average hedge fund delivered the low volatility that was desired, but it was accompanied by modest single-digit returns. No miracle there.</p><p><b>Why do I recite all this? Because volatility is just a temporary phenomenon (assuming you survive it financially), and most investors shouldn&#39;t attach as much importance to it as they seem to.</b> As I wrote in <i>I Beg to Differ</i>, many investors have the luxury of being able to focus exclusively on the long term... if they will take advantage of it. Volatility should be less of a concern for investors:</p><ul><li>whose entities are long-lived, like life insurance companies, endowments, and pension funds;</li><li>whose capital isn&#39;t subject to lump-sum withdrawal;</li><li>whose essential activities won&#39;t be jeopardized by downward fluctuations;</li><li>who don&#39;t have to worry about being forced into mistakes by their constituents; and</li><li>who hasn&#39;t levered up with debt that might have to be repaid in the short run?</li></ul><p>Most investors lack some of these things, and few have them all. But to the extent these characteristics are present, investors should take advantage of their ability to withstand volatility, since many investments with the potential for high returns might be susceptible to substantial fluctuations.</p><p><b>Warren Buffett always puts it best, and on this topic, he usefully said, &#34;We prefer a lumpy 15% return to a smooth 12% return.&#34; Investors who&#39;d rather have the reverse - who find a smooth 12% preferable to a lumpy 15% - should ask themselves whether their aversion to volatility is mostly financial or mostly emotional.</b></p><p>Of course, the choices made by employees, investment committee members, and hired investment managers may have to reflect real-world considerations. People in charge of institutional portfolios can have valid reasons for avoiding ups and downs that their organizations or clients might be able to stomach in financial terms but would still find unpleasant. All anyone can do is the best they can under their particular circumstances. <b>But my bottom line is this: In many cases, people accord volatility far more important than they should.</b></p><h2>An Aside</h2><p>While I&#39;m on the subject of volatility, I want to turn to an area that hasn&#39;t reported much of it of late: private investment funds. The first nine months of 2022 constituted one of the worst periods on record for both stocks and bonds. Yet, many private equities and private debt funds are reporting only small losses for the year to date. I&#39;m often asked what this means, and whether it reflects reality.</p><p>Maybe the performance of private funds is being reported accurately. (I know we believe ours is.) But I recently came across an interesting <i>Financial Times</i> article provocatively titled, &#34;The volatility laundering, return manipulation and &#39;phoney happiness&#39; of private equity,&#34; by Robin Wigglesworth. Here&#39;s some of its content:</p><p>The widening performance gap between public and private markets is a huge topic these days. Investors have often seen as the gormless [foolish] dupes falling for the &#34;return manipulation&#34; of cunning private equity tycoons. But what if they are co-conspirators?...</p><p>That&#39;s what a new paper from three academics at the University of Florida argues. Based on nearly two decades worth of private equity real estate funds data, Blake Jackson, David Ling, and Andy Naranjo conclude that &#34;private equity fund managers manipulate returns to cater to their investors.&#34;</p><p><b>...Jackson, Ling, and Naranjo&#39;s... central conclusion is that &#34;GPs do not appear to manipulate interim returns to fool their LPs, but rather because their LPs want them to do so&#34;.</b></p><p>Similar to the idea that banks design financial products to cater to yield-seeking investors or firms issue dividends to cater to investor demand for dividend payments, we argue that PE fund managers boost interim performance reports to cater to some investors&#39; demand for manipulated returns.</p><p>...<b>If a GP boosts or smooths returns,...investment managers within LP organizations can report artificially higher Sharpe ratios, alphas, and top-line returns, such as IRRs, to their trustees or other overseers.</b> In doing so, these investment managers, whose median tenure of four years often expires years before the ultimate returns of a PE fund are realized, might improve their internal job security or potential labor market outcomes...</p><p>This probably helps explain why private equity firms on average actually reported gains of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and only some modest marks downwards since then, despite global equities losing 22 percent of their value this year. (November 2, 2022. Emphasis added)</p><p>If both GPs and LPs are happy with returns that seem unusually good, might the result be suspect? Is the performance of private assets being stated accurately? Is the low volatility being reported genuine? If the current business climate is challenging, shouldn&#39;t that affect the prices of public and private investments alike?</p><p>But there&#39;s another series of relevant questions: Mightn&#39;t it be fair for GPs to decline to mark down private investments in companies that have experienced short-term weakness but whose long-term prospects remain bright? And while private investments might not have been marked down enough this year, isn&#39;t it true that the prices of public securities are more volatile than they should be, overstating the changes in long-term value? I certainly think public security prices reflect psychological swings that are often excessive. Should the prices of private investments emulate this?</p><p>As with most things, any inaccuracy in reporting will eventually come to light. Eventually, private debt will mature, and private equity holdings will have to be sold. If the returns being reported this year understate the real declines in value, performance from here on out will likely look surprisingly poor. And I&#39;m sure this will lead plenty of academics (and maybe a few regulators) to question whether the pricing of private investments in 2022 was too high. We&#39;ll see.</p><h2>What Doesn&#39;t Matter: Hyper-Activity</h2><p>In <i>Selling Out</i> (January 2022), I expressed my strong view that most investors trade too much. Since it&#39;s hard to make multiple consecutive decisions correctly, and trading costs money and is often likely to result from an investor&#39;s emotional swings, it&#39;s better to do less of it.</p><p><b>When I was a boy, there was a popular saying: Don&#39;t just sit there; do something. But for investing, I&#39;d invert it: Don&#39;t just do something; sit there.</b> Develop the mindset that you don&#39;t make money on what you buy and sell; you make money (hopefully) on what you hold. Think more. Trade less. Make fewer, but more consequential, trades. Over-diversification reduces the importance of each trade; thus it can allow investors to take actions without adequate investigation or great conviction. I think most portfolios are over-diversified and over-traded.</p><p>I devoted a good portion of <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i> and <i>Selling Out</i> to warn investors about how difficult it is to improve returns through short-term market timing, and I quoted the great investor Bill Miller: &#34;Time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market.&#34;</p><p>On this subject, I was recently asked by a consultant, &#34;If you don&#39;t try to get in and out of the market as appropriate, how do you earn your fees?&#34; My answer was that it&#39;s our job to assemble portfolios that will perform well over the long run, and market timing is unlikely to add to the outcome unless it can be done well, which I&#39;m not convinced is usually the case. &#34;What about you?&#34; I asked. &#34;If you help a client establish an appropriate asset allocation, does it follow that you&#39;re not earning your fees if you don&#39;t change it a month later?&#34;</p><p>Likewise, the day <i>The Illusion of Knowledge</i> came out, an old friend asked me, &#34;But you have to take a position [on short-run events], don&#39;t you?&#34; My answer, predictably, was, &#34;No, not if you don&#39;t have an advantage when doing so. Why would you bet on the outcome of a coin toss, especially if it costs money to play?&#34;</p><p>I&#39;ll end my discussion of this subject with a wonderful citation:</p><p>A news item that has gotten a lot of attention recently concerned an internal performance review of Fidelity accounts to determine which type of investors received the best returns between 2003 and 2013. The customer account audit revealed that the best investors were either dead or inactive - the people who switched jobs and &#34;forgot&#34; about an old 401(K) leaving the current options in place, or the people who died and the assets were frozen while the estate handled the assets. (&#34;Fidelity&#39;s Best Investors Are Dead,&#34; <i>The Conservative Income Investor</i>, April 8, 2020)</p><p>Since the journalists have been unable to find the Fidelity study, and apparently so has Fidelity, the story is probably apocryphal. But I still like the idea, since the conclusion is so much in line with my thinking. <b>I&#39;m not saying it&#39;s worth dying to improve investment performance, but it might be a good idea for investors to simulate that condition by sitting on their hands.</b></p><h2>So What Does Matter?</h2><p><b>What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or ten years (or more) and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs.</b> Some people say the long run is a series of short runs, and if you get those right, you&#39;ll enjoy success in the long run. They might think the route to success consists of trading often in order to capitalize on relative value assessments, predictions regarding swings in popularity, and forecasts of macro events. I obviously do not.</p><p>Most individual investors and anyone who understands the limitations regarding outperformance would probably be best off holding index funds over the long run. Investment professionals and others who feel they need or want to engage in active management might benefit from the following suggestions.</p><p>I think most people would be more successful if they focused less on the short-run or macro trends and instead worked hard to gain superior insight concerning the outlook for fundamentals over multi-year periods in the future. They should:</p><ul><li><p>study companies and securities, assessing things such as their earnings potential;</p></li><li><p>buy the ones that can be purchased at attractive prices relative to their potential;</p></li><li><p>hold onto them as long as the company&#39;s earnings outlook and the attractiveness of the price remain intact; and</p></li><li><p>make changes only when those things can&#39;t be reconfirmed, or when something better comes along.</p></li></ul><p><b>At the London conference mentioned on page one - while I was discussing (and discouraging) paying attention to the short run - I said that at Oaktree we consider it our job to (A) buy debt that will be serviced as promised (or will return the same amount or more if not) and (B) invest in companies that will become more valuable over time. I&#39;ll stick with that.</b></p><p>The above description of the investor&#39;s job is quite simple... some might say simplistic. And it is. Setting out the goals and the process in broad terms is easy. The hard part is executing better than most people: That&#39;s the only route to market-beating performance. <b>Since average decision-making is reflected in security prices and produces average performance, superior results have to be based on superior insight.</b> But I can&#39;t tell you how to do these things better than the average investor.</p><p>There&#39;s a lot more to the process, and I&#39;m going to outline some of what I think are key elements to remember. You&#39;ll recognize recurring themes here, from other memos, and from earlier pages in this one, but I make no apology for dwelling on things that are important:</p><ul><li><p>Forget the short run - only the long run matters. Think of securities as interests in companies, not trading cards.</p></li><li><p>Decide whether you believe in market efficiency. If so, is your market sufficiently inefficient to permit outperformance, and are you up to the task of exploiting it?</p></li><li><p>Decide whether your approach will lean more toward aggressiveness or defensiveness. Will you try to find more and bigger winners or focus on avoiding losers, or both? Will you try to make more on the way up or lose less on the down, or both? (Hint: &#34;both&#34; is much harder to achieve than one or the other.) In general, people&#39;s investment styles should fit their personalities.</p></li><li><p>Think about what your normal risk posture should be - your normal balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness - based on your or your clients&#39; financial position, needs, aspirations, and ability to live with fluctuations. Consider whether you&#39;ll vary your balance depending on what happens in the market.</p></li><li><p>Adopt a healthy attitude toward return and risk. Understand that &#34;the more return potential, the better&#34; can be a dangerous rule to follow given that increased return potential is usually accompanied by increased risk. On the other hand, completely avoiding risk usually leads to avoiding return as well.</p></li><li><p>Insist on an adequate margin of safety, or the ability to weather periods when things go less well than you expected.</p></li><li><p>Stop trying to predict the macro; study the micro like mad in order to know your subject better than others. Understand that you can expect to succeed only if you have a knowledge advantage, and be realistic about whether you have it or not. Recognize that trying harder isn&#39;t enough. Accept my son Andrew&#39;s view that merely possessing &#34;readily available quantitative information regarding the present&#34; won&#39;t give you above-average results, since everyone else has it.</p></li><li><p>Recognize that psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings. Profit if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.</p></li><li><p>Study conditions in the investment environment - especially investor behavior - and consider where things stand in terms of the cycle. Understand that where the market stands in its cycle will strongly influence whether the odds are in your favor or against you.</p></li><li><p>Buy debt when you like the yield, not for trading purposes. In other words, buy 9% bonds if you think the yield compensates you for the risk, and you&#39;ll be happy with 9%. Don&#39;t buy 9% bonds expecting to make 11% thanks to price appreciation resulting from declining interest rates.</p></li></ul><p><b>Of critical importance, equity investors should make their primary goals (A) participating in the secular growth of economies and companies and (B) benefiting from the wonder of compounding.</b> Think about the 10.5% yearly return of the S&amp;P 500 Index (or its predecessors) since 1926 and the fact that this would have turned $1 into over $13,000 by now, even though the period witnessed 16 recessions, one Great Depression, several wars, one World War, a global pandemic, and many instances of geopolitical turmoil.</p><p><b>Think of participating in the long-term performance of the average as the main event and the active efforts to improve on it as &#34;embroidery around the edges.&#34;</b> This might be the reverse of most active investors&#39; attitudes. Improving results through over- and underweighting, short-term trading, market timing, and other active measures aren&#39;t easy. <b>Believing you can do these things successfully requires the assumption that you&#39;re smarter than a bunch of very smart people. Think twice before proceeding, as the requirements for success are high (see below).</b></p><p>Don&#39;t mess it up by over-trading. Think of buying and selling as an expense item, not a profit center. I love the idea of the automated factory of the future, with one man and one dog; The dog&#39;s job is to keep the man from touching the machinery, and the man&#39;s job is to feed the dog. <b>Investors should find a way to keep their hands off their portfolios most of the time.</b></p><h2>A Special Word in Closing: Asymmetry</h2><p><b>&#34;Asymmetry&#34; is a concept I&#39;ve been conscious of for decades and consider more important with every passing year. It&#39;s my word for the essence of investment excellence and a standard against which investors should be measured.</b></p><p>First, some definitions:</p><ul><li><p>I&#39;m going to talk below about whether an investor has &#34;alpha.&#34; Alpha is technically defined as a return in excess of the benchmark return, but I prefer to think of it as a superior investing skill. It&#39;s the ability to find and exploit inefficiencies when they&#39;re present.</p></li><li><p>Inefficiencies - mispricings or mistakes - represent instances when an asset&#39;s price diverges from its fair value. These divergences can show up as bargains or the opposite, over-pricings.</p></li><li><p>Bargains will dependably perform better than other investments over time after adjustment for their riskiness. Over-pricings will do the opposite.</p></li><li><p>&#34;Beta&#34; is an investor&#39;s or a portfolio&#39;s relative volatility, also described as relative sensitivity or systematic risk.</p></li></ul><p>People who believe in the efficient market hypothesis think of a portfolio&#39;s return as the product of the market&#39;s return multiplied by the portfolio&#39;s beta. This is all it takes to explain results since there are no mispricings to take advantage of in an efficient market (and so no such thing as alpha). <b>Thus, alpha is a skill that enables an investor to produce performance better than that which is explained purely by market return and beta.</b> Another way to say this is that having alpha allows an investor to enjoy profit potential that is disproportionate to loss potential: asymmetry. In my view, asymmetry is present when an investor can repeatedly do some or all of the following:</p><ul><li><p>make more money in good markets than he gives back in bad markets,</p></li><li><p>have more winners than losers,</p></li><li><p>make more money on his winners than he loses on his losers,</p></li><li><p>do well when his aggressive or defensive bias proves timely but not badly when it doesn&#39;t,</p></li><li><p>do well when his sector or strategy is in favor but not badly when it isn&#39;t, and</p></li><li><p>construct portfolios so that most of the surprises are on the upside.</p></li></ul><p>For example, most of us have an inherent bias toward either aggressiveness or defensiveness. For this reason, it doesn&#39;t mean much if an aggressive investor outperforms in a good year or a defensive investor outperforms in a bad year. To determine whether they have alpha and produce asymmetry, we have to consider whether the aggressive investor is able to avoid the full loss that his aggressiveness alone would produce in a bad market and whether the defensive investor can avoid missing out on too much of the gain when the market does well. <b>In my opinion, &#34;excellence&#34; lies in the asymmetry between the results in good and bad times.</b></p><p><b>As I see it, if inefficiencies are present in an investor&#39;s market, and she has alpha, the impact will show up in asymmetrical returns. If her returns show no asymmetry, the investor doesn&#39;t have alpha (or perhaps there are no inefficiencies for her to identify). Flipping that over, if an investor doesn&#39;t have alpha, her returns won&#39;t be asymmetrical. It&#39;s as simple as that.</b></p><p>To simplify, here&#39;s what I think about asymmetry. This discussion is based on material I included in my 2018 book <i>Mastering the Market Cycle:Getting the Odds on Your Side</i>. While I may appear to be talking about one good year and one bad one, these observations can only be considered valid if these patterns hold over a meaningful number of years.</p><p>Let&#39;s consider a manager&#39;s performance:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager A</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>The above manager clearly adds no value. You might as well invest in an index fund (probably at a much lower fee).</p><p>These two managers also add no value:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager B</td><td>+5%</td><td>-5%</td></tr><tr><td>Manager C</td><td>+20%</td><td>-20%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Manager B is just a no-alpha manager with a beta of 0.5, and manager C is a no-alpha manager with a beta of 2.0. You could get the same results as manager B by putting half your capital in an index fund and keeping the rest under your mattress and in the case of manager C, by doubling your investment with borrowed capital and putting it all in an index fund.</p><p>These two managers, however, do have alpha, as they exhibit asymmetry:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager D</td><td>+17%</td><td>-12%</td></tr><tr><td>Manager E</td><td>+9%</td><td>-3%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Both managers&#39; returns reflect more of the market&#39;s gain in good times than they do its loss in bad ones. Manager D might be described as an aggressive manager with alpha; she achieves 170% of the market&#39;s return when the market rises but suffers only 120% of the loss when it falls. Manager E is a defensive manager with alpha; his returns reflect 90% of the gain in an up market but only 30% of the loss in a down market. These asymmetries can only be attributed to the presence of alpha. Risk-tolerant clients will prefer to invest in D, and risk-averse ones will prefer E.</p><p>This manager is truly exceptional:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager F</td><td>+20%</td><td>-5%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>She beat the market in both directions: She&#39;s up more than the market when it rises and down less when it falls. She&#39;s up so much in a good market that you might be tempted to describe her as aggressive. But since she&#39;s down less in a down market, that description won&#39;t hold. Either she doesn&#39;t have a bias in terms of aggressiveness versus defensiveness, or her alpha is great enough to offset it.</p><p>Finally, here&#39;s one of the greatest managers of all time:</p><table><tbody><tr><td>Market performance</td><td>+10%</td><td>-10%</td></tr><tr></tr><tr><td>Manager G</td><td>+20%</td><td>+5%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Manager G is up in good and bad markets alike. He clearly doesn&#39;t have an aggressiveness/defensiveness bias, since his performance is exceptional in both markets. His alpha is sufficient to enable him to buck the trend and achieve a positive return in a down year. When you find Manager G, you should (A) do extensive due diligence regarding his reported performance, (B) if the numbers hold up, invest a lot of money with him, (C) hope he won&#39;t accept so much money that his edge goes away, and (D) send me his number.</p><p>What matters most? Asymmetry.</p><ul><li><p>In sum, asymmetry shows up in a manager&#39;s ability to do very well when things go his way and not too bad when they don&#39;t.</p></li><li><p>A great adage says, &#34;Never confuse brains and a bull market.&#34; Managers with the skill needed to produce asymmetry are special because they&#39;re able to fashion good gains from sources other than market advances.</p></li><li><p><b>When you think about it, the active investment business is, at its heart, completely about asymmetry. If a manager&#39;s performance doesn&#39;t exceed what can be explained by market returns and his relative risk posture - which stems from his choice of market sector, tactics, and level of aggressiveness - he simply hasn&#39;t earned his fees.</b></p></li></ul><p>Without asymmetry (see Managers A, B, and C on page 12), active management delivers no value and deserves no fees. <b>Indeed, all the choices an active investor makes will be for naught if he doesn&#39;t possess superior skill or insight.</b> By definition, average investors and below-average investors don&#39;t have alpha and can&#39;t produce asymmetry.</p><p>The big question is how to achieve asymmetry. Most of the things people focus on - the things I describe on pages one through nine as not mattering - can&#39;t provide it. As I&#39;ve said before, the average of all investors&#39; thinking produces market prices and, obviously, average performance. <b>Asymmetry can only be demonstrated by the relatively few people with superior skill and insight.</b> The key lies in finding them.</p><p><i><b>Editor&#39;s Note:</b></i><i> The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Latest Memo From Howard Marks: What Really Matters?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLatest Memo From Howard Marks: What Really Matters?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-24 23:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560095-latest-memo-from-howard-marks-what-really-matters><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryThe vast majority of investors can’t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen.Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560095-latest-memo-from-howard-marks-what-really-matters\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560095-latest-memo-from-howard-marks-what-really-matters","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2285384020","content_text":"SummaryThe vast majority of investors can’t know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen.Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they’re for trading, not for owning.Most individual investors and anyone who understands the limitations regarding outperformance would probably be best off holding index funds over the long run.We AreI've gathered a few ideas from several of my memos this year - plus some recent musings and conversations - to form the subject of this memo: what really matters or should matter for investors. I'll start by examining a number of things that I think don't matter.What Doesn't Matter: Short-Term EventsIn The Illusion of Knowledge (September 2022), I railed against macro forecasting, which in our profession mostly concerns the next year or two. And in I Beg to Differ (July 2022), I discussed the questions I was asked most frequently at Oaktree's June 21 conference in London: How bad will inflation get? How much will the Fed raise interest rates to fight it? Will those increases cause a recession? How bad and for how long? The bottom line, I told the attendees, was that these things all relate to the short term, and this is what I know about the short term:Most investors can't do a superior job of predicting short-term phenomena like these.Thus, they shouldn't put much stock in opinions on these subjects (theirs or those of others).They're unlikely to make major changes in their portfolios in response to these opinions.The changes they do make are unlikely to be consistently right.Thus, these aren't the things that matter.Consider an example. In response to the first tremors of the Global Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve began to cut the fed funds rate in 3Q2007. They then lowered it to zero around the end of 2008 and left it there for seven years. In late 2015, virtually the only question I got was \"When will the first rate increase occur?\" My answer was always the same: \"Why do you care? If I say 'February,' what will you do? And if I later change my mind and say 'May,' what will you do differently? If everyone knows rates are about to rise, what difference does it make which month the process starts?\" No one ever offered a convincing answer. Investors probably think asking such questions is part of behaving professionally, but I doubt they could explain why.The vast majority of investors can't know for sure what macro events lie just ahead or how the markets will react to the things that do happen. In The Illusion of Knowledge, I wrote at length about the way unforeseen events make a hash of economic and market forecasts. In summary, most forecasts are extrapolations, and most of the time things don't change, so extrapolations are usually correct, but not particularly profitable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of deviations from trends can be very profitable, but they're hard to make and hard to act on. These are some of the reasons why most people can't predict the future well enough to repeatably produce superior performance.Why is doing this so hard? Don't most of us know what events are likely to transpire? Can't we just buy the securities of the companies that are most likely to benefit from those events? In the long run, maybe, but I want to turn to a theme that Bruce Karsh has been emphasizing lately, regarding a major reason why it's particularly challenging to profit from a short-term focus: It's verydifficult to know which expectations regarding events are already incorporated in security prices.One of the critical mistakes people are guilty of - we see it all the time in the media - is believing that changes in security prices are the result of events: that favorable events lead to rising prices and negative events lead to falling prices. I think that's what most people believe - especially first-level thinkers - but that's not right. Security prices are determined by events and how investors react to those events, which is largely a function of how the events stack up against investors' expectations.How can we explain a company that reports higher earnings, only to see its stock price drop? The answer, of course, is that the reported improvement fell short of expectations and thus disappointed investors. So, at the most elementary level, it's not whether the event is simply positive or not, but how the event compares with what was expected.In my earliest working years, I used to spend a few minutes each day looking over the earnings reports printed in The Wall Street Journal. But after a while, it dawned on me that since I didn't know what numbers had been expected, I had no idea whether an announcement from a company I didn't follow was good news or bad.Investors can become experts regarding a few companies and their securities, but no one is likely to know enough about macro events to (A) be able to understand the macro expectations that underlie the prices of securities, (B) anticipate the broad events, and (C) predict how those securities will react. Where can a prospective buyer look to find out what the investors who set securities prices already anticipate in terms of inflation, GDP, or unemployment? Inferences regarding expectations can sometimes be drawn from asset prices, but the inferred levels often aren't proved correct when the actual results come in.Further, in the short term, security prices are highly susceptible to random and exogenous events that can swamp the impact of fundamental events. Macro events and the ups and downs of companies' near-term fortunes are unpredictable and not necessarily indicative of - or relevant to - companies' long-term prospects. So little attention should be paid to them. For example, companies often deliberately reduce current earnings by investing in the future of their businesses; thus, low reported earnings can imply high future earnings, not continued low earnings. To know the difference, you have to have an in-depth understanding of the company.No one should be fooled into thinking security pricing is a dependable process that accurately follows a set of rules. Events are unpredictable; they can be altered by unpredictable influences, and investors' reactions to the events that occur are unpredictable. Due to the presence of so much uncertainty, most investors are unable to improve their results by focusing on the short term.It's clear from observation that security prices fluctuate much more than economic output or company profits. What accounts for this? It must be the fact that, in the short term, the ups and downs of prices are influenced far more by swings in investor psychology than by changes in companies' long-term prospects. Because swings in psychology matter more in the near term than changes in fundamentals - and are so hard to predict - most short-term trading is a waste of time... or worse.What Doesn't Matter: The Trading MentalityOver the years, my memos have often included some of my father's jokes from the 1950s, based on my strong belief that humor often reflects truths about the human condition. Given its relevance here, I'm going to devote a bit of space to a joke I've shared before:I include this old joke because I believe most people treat stocks and bonds like something to trade, not something to own.If you ask Warren Buffett to describe the foundation of his approach to investing, he'll probably start by insisting that stocks should be thought of as ownership interests in companies. Most people don't start companies with the goal of selling them in the short term, but rather they seek to operate them, enjoy profitability, and expand the business. Of course, founders do these things to ultimately make money, but they're likely to view the money as the byproduct of having run a successful business. Buffett says people who buy stocks should think of themselves as partners of owners with whom they share goals.But I think that's rarely the case. Most people buy stocks with the goal of selling them at a higher price, thinking they're for trading, not for owning. This means they abandon the owner mentality and instead act like gamblers or speculators who bet on stock price moves. The results are often unpleasant.The DALBAR Institute 2012 study showed that investors receive three percentage points less per year than the S&P 500 generated from 1992 to 2012, and the average holding period for a typical investor is six months. Six Months!! When you hold a stock for less than a year, you are not using the stock market to acquire business ownership positions and participate in the growth of that business. Instead, you are just guessing at short-term news and expectations, and your returns are based on how other people react to that news information. In aggregate, that kind of attitude gets you three percentage points less per year than you'd get from doing nothing at all beyond making the initial investment in the index fund of the S&P 500. (\"Fidelity's Best Investors Are Dead,\" The Conservative Income Investor, April 8, 2020)To me, buying for a short-term trade equates to forgetting about your sports team's chances of winning the championship and instead betting on who's going to succeed in the next play, period, or inning.Let's think about the logic. You buy a stock because you think it's worth more than you have to pay for it, whereas the seller considers it fully priced. Someday, if things go well, it'll become fully priced, in your opinion, meaning you'll sell it. The person you sell it to, however, will buy it because he thinks it's worth still more. We used to talk about this process as being reliant on the Greater Fool Theory: No matter what price I pay for a stock, there will always be someone who will buy it from me for more, despite the fact that I'm selling because I've concluded that it has reached full value.Every buyer is motivated by the belief that the stock will eventually be worth more than today's price (a view the seller presumably doesn't share). The key question is what type of thinking underlies these purchases. Are the buyers buying because this is a company they'd like to own a piece of for years? Or are they merely betting that the price will go up? The transactions may look the same from the outside, but I wonder about the thought process and thus the soundness of the logic.Each time a stock is traded, one side is wrong and one is right. But if what you're doing is betting on trends in popularity, and thus the direction of price moves over the next month, quarter, or year, is it realistic to believe you'll be right more often than the person on the other side of the trade? Maybe the decline of active management can be attributed to the many active managers who placed bets on the direction of stock prices in the short term, instead of picking companies they wanted to own part of for years. It's all a matter of the underlying mentality.I had a long debate on this topic with my father back in 1969, when I lived with him during my first months at First National City Bank. (It's amazing for me to think back to those days; he was so much younger than I am today.) I told him I thought buying a stock should be motivated by something other than the hope that the price would rise, and I suggested this might be the expectation that dividends would increase over time. He countered that no one buys stocks for the dividends - they buy because they think the price will go up. But what would trigger the rise?Wanting to own a business for its commercial merit and long-term earnings potential is a good reason to be a stockholder, and if these expectations are borne out, a good reason to believe the stock price will rise. In the absence of that, buying in the hope of appreciation merely amounts to trying to guess which industries and companies investors will favor in the future. Ben Graham famously said, \"In the short run, a market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.\" While none of this is easy, as Charlie Munger once told me, carefully weighing long-term merit should produce better results than trying to guess at short-term swings in popularity.What Doesn't Matter: Short-Term PerformanceGiven the possible contributors to short-term investment performance, reported results can present a highly misleading picture, and here I'm talking mostly about superior gains in good times. I feel there are three ingredients for success during good times - aggressiveness, timing, and skill - and if you have enough aggressiveness at the right time, you don't need that much skill. We all know that in good times, the highest returns often go to the person whose portfolio incorporates the most risk, beta, and correlation. Having such a portfolio isn't a mark of distinction or insight if the investor is a perma-bull who's always positioned aggressively. Finally, random events can have an overwhelming impact on returns - in either direction - in a given quarter or year.One of the recurring themes in my memos is the idea that the quality of a decision cannot be determined by the outcome alone. Decisions often lead to negative outcomes even when they're well-reasoned and based on all the available information. On the other hand, we all know people - even occasionally ourselves - who've been right for the wrong reason. Hidden information and random developments can frustrate even the best thinkers' decisions. (However, when outcomes are considered over a long period of time and a large number of trials, the better decision maker is overwhelmingly likely to have a higher proportion of successes.)Obviously, no one should attach much significance to returns in one quarter or year. Investment performance is simply one result drawn from the full range of returns that could have materialized, and in the short term, it can be heavily influenced by random events. Thus, a single quarter's return is likely to be a very weak indicator of an investor's ability, if that. Deciding whether a manager has a special skill - or whether an asset allocation is appropriate for the long run - on the basis of one quarter or year is like forming an opinion of a baseball player on the basis of one trip to the plate, or of a racehorse based on one race.We know short-term performance doesn't matter much. And yet, most of the investment committees I've sat on have had the latest quarter's performance as the first item on the agenda and devoted a meaningful portion of each meeting to it. The discussion is usually extensive, but it rarely leads to significant action. So why do we keep doing it? For the same reasons investors pay attention to forecasting, as described in The Illusion of Knowledge: \"everyone does it,\" and \"it would be irresponsible not to.\"What Doesn't Matter: VolatilityI haven't written much about volatility, other than to say I strongly disagree with people who consider it the definition or essence of risk. I've described my belief that the academics who developed the Chicago School theory of investment in the early 1960s (A) wanted to examine the relationship between investment returns and risk, (B) needed a number quantifying risk that they could put into their calculations, and (C) undoubtedly chose volatility as a proxy for risk for the simple reason that it was the only quantifiable metric available. I define risk as the probability of a bad outcome, and volatility is, at best, an indicator of the presence of risk. But volatility is not risk. That's all I'm going to say on that subject.What I want to talk about here is the extent to which thinking and caring about volatility has warped the investing world over the 50-plus years that I've been in it. It was a great advantage for me to have attended the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago in the late '60s and to have been part of one of the very first classes that taught new theories. I learned about the efficient market hypothesis, the capital asset pricing model, the random walk, the importance of risk aversion, and the role of volatility as risk. While volatility wasn't a topic of conversation when I got into the real world of investing in 1969, the practice soon caught up with the theory.In particular, the Sharpe ratio was adopted as the measure of risk-adjusted return. It's the ratio of a portfolio's excess return (the part of its return that exceeds the yield on T-bills) to its volatility. The more return per unit of volatility, the higher the risk-adjusted return. Risk adjustment is an essential concept, and returns should absolutely be evaluated relative to the risk that was taken to achieve them. Everyone cites Sharpe ratios, including Oaktree, because it's the only quantitative tool available for the job. (If investors, consultants, and clients didn't use the Sharpe ratio, they'd have no metric at all, and if they tried to substitute fundamental riskiness for volatility in their assessments, they'd find that there's no way to quantify it.) The Sharpe ratio may hint at risk-adjusted performance in the same way that volatility hints at risk, but since volatility isn't risk, the Sharpe ratio is a very imperfect measure.Take, for example, one of the asset classes I started working with in 1978: high-yield bonds. At Oaktree, we think moderately-above-benchmark returns can be produced with substantially less risk than the benchmark, and this shows up in superior Sharpe ratios. But the real risk in high-yield bonds - the one we care about and have a history of reducing - is the risk of default. We don't much care about reducing volatility, and we don't take conscious steps to do so. We believe high Sharpe ratios can result from - and perhaps are correlated with - the actions we take to reduce defaults.Volatility is particularly irrelevant in our of fixed income or \"credit.\" Bonds, notes, and loans represent contractual promises of periodic interest and repayment at maturity. Most of the time when you buy a bond with an 8% yield, you'll basically get the 8% yield over its life, regardless of whether the bond price goes up or down in the interim. I say \"basically\" because, if the price falls, you'll have the opportunity to reinvest the interest payments at yields above 8%, so your holding-period return will creep up. Thus, the downward price volatility that so many revile is actually a good thing - as long as it doesn't presage defaults. (Note that, as indicated in this paragraph, \"volatility\" is often a misnomer. Strategists and the media often warn that \"there may be volatility ahead.\" What they really mean is \"there may be price declines ahead.\" No one worries about, or minds experiencing, volatility to the upside.)It's essential to recognize that protection from volatility generally isn't a free good. Reducing volatility for its own sake is a sub-optimizing strategy: It should be presumed that favoring lower-volatility assets and approaches will - all things being equal - lead to lower returns. Only managers with superior skill, or alpha (see page 11), will be able to overcome this negative presumption and reduce return less than they reduce volatility.Nevertheless, since many clients, bosses, and other constituents are uncomfortable with radical ups and downs (well, mostly with downs), asset managers often take steps to reduce volatility. Consider what happened after institutional investors began to pile into hedge funds following the three-year decline of stocks brought on by the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000. (This was the first three-year decline since 1939-41.) Hedge funds - previously members of a cottage industry where most funds had a few hundred million dollars of capital from wealthy individuals - did much better than stocks in the downdraft. Institutions were attracted to these funds' low volatility, and thus invested billions in them.The average hedge fund delivered the stability the institutions wanted. But somewhere in the shuffle, the idea of earning high returns with low volatility got lost. Instead, hedge fund managers pursued low volatility as a goal in itself, since they knew it was what the institutions were after. As a result, over roughly the last 18 years, the average hedge fund delivered the low volatility that was desired, but it was accompanied by modest single-digit returns. No miracle there.Why do I recite all this? Because volatility is just a temporary phenomenon (assuming you survive it financially), and most investors shouldn't attach as much importance to it as they seem to. As I wrote in I Beg to Differ, many investors have the luxury of being able to focus exclusively on the long term... if they will take advantage of it. Volatility should be less of a concern for investors:whose entities are long-lived, like life insurance companies, endowments, and pension funds;whose capital isn't subject to lump-sum withdrawal;whose essential activities won't be jeopardized by downward fluctuations;who don't have to worry about being forced into mistakes by their constituents; andwho hasn't levered up with debt that might have to be repaid in the short run?Most investors lack some of these things, and few have them all. But to the extent these characteristics are present, investors should take advantage of their ability to withstand volatility, since many investments with the potential for high returns might be susceptible to substantial fluctuations.Warren Buffett always puts it best, and on this topic, he usefully said, \"We prefer a lumpy 15% return to a smooth 12% return.\" Investors who'd rather have the reverse - who find a smooth 12% preferable to a lumpy 15% - should ask themselves whether their aversion to volatility is mostly financial or mostly emotional.Of course, the choices made by employees, investment committee members, and hired investment managers may have to reflect real-world considerations. People in charge of institutional portfolios can have valid reasons for avoiding ups and downs that their organizations or clients might be able to stomach in financial terms but would still find unpleasant. All anyone can do is the best they can under their particular circumstances. But my bottom line is this: In many cases, people accord volatility far more important than they should.An AsideWhile I'm on the subject of volatility, I want to turn to an area that hasn't reported much of it of late: private investment funds. The first nine months of 2022 constituted one of the worst periods on record for both stocks and bonds. Yet, many private equities and private debt funds are reporting only small losses for the year to date. I'm often asked what this means, and whether it reflects reality.Maybe the performance of private funds is being reported accurately. (I know we believe ours is.) But I recently came across an interesting Financial Times article provocatively titled, \"The volatility laundering, return manipulation and 'phoney happiness' of private equity,\" by Robin Wigglesworth. Here's some of its content:The widening performance gap between public and private markets is a huge topic these days. Investors have often seen as the gormless [foolish] dupes falling for the \"return manipulation\" of cunning private equity tycoons. But what if they are co-conspirators?...That's what a new paper from three academics at the University of Florida argues. Based on nearly two decades worth of private equity real estate funds data, Blake Jackson, David Ling, and Andy Naranjo conclude that \"private equity fund managers manipulate returns to cater to their investors.\"...Jackson, Ling, and Naranjo's... central conclusion is that \"GPs do not appear to manipulate interim returns to fool their LPs, but rather because their LPs want them to do so\".Similar to the idea that banks design financial products to cater to yield-seeking investors or firms issue dividends to cater to investor demand for dividend payments, we argue that PE fund managers boost interim performance reports to cater to some investors' demand for manipulated returns....If a GP boosts or smooths returns,...investment managers within LP organizations can report artificially higher Sharpe ratios, alphas, and top-line returns, such as IRRs, to their trustees or other overseers. In doing so, these investment managers, whose median tenure of four years often expires years before the ultimate returns of a PE fund are realized, might improve their internal job security or potential labor market outcomes...This probably helps explain why private equity firms on average actually reported gains of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022 and only some modest marks downwards since then, despite global equities losing 22 percent of their value this year. (November 2, 2022. Emphasis added)If both GPs and LPs are happy with returns that seem unusually good, might the result be suspect? Is the performance of private assets being stated accurately? Is the low volatility being reported genuine? If the current business climate is challenging, shouldn't that affect the prices of public and private investments alike?But there's another series of relevant questions: Mightn't it be fair for GPs to decline to mark down private investments in companies that have experienced short-term weakness but whose long-term prospects remain bright? And while private investments might not have been marked down enough this year, isn't it true that the prices of public securities are more volatile than they should be, overstating the changes in long-term value? I certainly think public security prices reflect psychological swings that are often excessive. Should the prices of private investments emulate this?As with most things, any inaccuracy in reporting will eventually come to light. Eventually, private debt will mature, and private equity holdings will have to be sold. If the returns being reported this year understate the real declines in value, performance from here on out will likely look surprisingly poor. And I'm sure this will lead plenty of academics (and maybe a few regulators) to question whether the pricing of private investments in 2022 was too high. We'll see.What Doesn't Matter: Hyper-ActivityIn Selling Out (January 2022), I expressed my strong view that most investors trade too much. Since it's hard to make multiple consecutive decisions correctly, and trading costs money and is often likely to result from an investor's emotional swings, it's better to do less of it.When I was a boy, there was a popular saying: Don't just sit there; do something. But for investing, I'd invert it: Don't just do something; sit there. Develop the mindset that you don't make money on what you buy and sell; you make money (hopefully) on what you hold. Think more. Trade less. Make fewer, but more consequential, trades. Over-diversification reduces the importance of each trade; thus it can allow investors to take actions without adequate investigation or great conviction. I think most portfolios are over-diversified and over-traded.I devoted a good portion of The Illusion of Knowledge and Selling Out to warn investors about how difficult it is to improve returns through short-term market timing, and I quoted the great investor Bill Miller: \"Time, not timing, is key to building wealth in the stock market.\"On this subject, I was recently asked by a consultant, \"If you don't try to get in and out of the market as appropriate, how do you earn your fees?\" My answer was that it's our job to assemble portfolios that will perform well over the long run, and market timing is unlikely to add to the outcome unless it can be done well, which I'm not convinced is usually the case. \"What about you?\" I asked. \"If you help a client establish an appropriate asset allocation, does it follow that you're not earning your fees if you don't change it a month later?\"Likewise, the day The Illusion of Knowledge came out, an old friend asked me, \"But you have to take a position [on short-run events], don't you?\" My answer, predictably, was, \"No, not if you don't have an advantage when doing so. Why would you bet on the outcome of a coin toss, especially if it costs money to play?\"I'll end my discussion of this subject with a wonderful citation:A news item that has gotten a lot of attention recently concerned an internal performance review of Fidelity accounts to determine which type of investors received the best returns between 2003 and 2013. The customer account audit revealed that the best investors were either dead or inactive - the people who switched jobs and \"forgot\" about an old 401(K) leaving the current options in place, or the people who died and the assets were frozen while the estate handled the assets. (\"Fidelity's Best Investors Are Dead,\" The Conservative Income Investor, April 8, 2020)Since the journalists have been unable to find the Fidelity study, and apparently so has Fidelity, the story is probably apocryphal. But I still like the idea, since the conclusion is so much in line with my thinking. I'm not saying it's worth dying to improve investment performance, but it might be a good idea for investors to simulate that condition by sitting on their hands.So What Does Matter?What really matters is the performance of your holdings over the next five or ten years (or more) and how the value at the end of the period compares to the amount you invested and to your needs. Some people say the long run is a series of short runs, and if you get those right, you'll enjoy success in the long run. They might think the route to success consists of trading often in order to capitalize on relative value assessments, predictions regarding swings in popularity, and forecasts of macro events. I obviously do not.Most individual investors and anyone who understands the limitations regarding outperformance would probably be best off holding index funds over the long run. Investment professionals and others who feel they need or want to engage in active management might benefit from the following suggestions.I think most people would be more successful if they focused less on the short-run or macro trends and instead worked hard to gain superior insight concerning the outlook for fundamentals over multi-year periods in the future. They should:study companies and securities, assessing things such as their earnings potential;buy the ones that can be purchased at attractive prices relative to their potential;hold onto them as long as the company's earnings outlook and the attractiveness of the price remain intact; andmake changes only when those things can't be reconfirmed, or when something better comes along.At the London conference mentioned on page one - while I was discussing (and discouraging) paying attention to the short run - I said that at Oaktree we consider it our job to (A) buy debt that will be serviced as promised (or will return the same amount or more if not) and (B) invest in companies that will become more valuable over time. I'll stick with that.The above description of the investor's job is quite simple... some might say simplistic. And it is. Setting out the goals and the process in broad terms is easy. The hard part is executing better than most people: That's the only route to market-beating performance. Since average decision-making is reflected in security prices and produces average performance, superior results have to be based on superior insight. But I can't tell you how to do these things better than the average investor.There's a lot more to the process, and I'm going to outline some of what I think are key elements to remember. You'll recognize recurring themes here, from other memos, and from earlier pages in this one, but I make no apology for dwelling on things that are important:Forget the short run - only the long run matters. Think of securities as interests in companies, not trading cards.Decide whether you believe in market efficiency. If so, is your market sufficiently inefficient to permit outperformance, and are you up to the task of exploiting it?Decide whether your approach will lean more toward aggressiveness or defensiveness. Will you try to find more and bigger winners or focus on avoiding losers, or both? Will you try to make more on the way up or lose less on the down, or both? (Hint: \"both\" is much harder to achieve than one or the other.) In general, people's investment styles should fit their personalities.Think about what your normal risk posture should be - your normal balance between aggressiveness and defensiveness - based on your or your clients' financial position, needs, aspirations, and ability to live with fluctuations. Consider whether you'll vary your balance depending on what happens in the market.Adopt a healthy attitude toward return and risk. Understand that \"the more return potential, the better\" can be a dangerous rule to follow given that increased return potential is usually accompanied by increased risk. On the other hand, completely avoiding risk usually leads to avoiding return as well.Insist on an adequate margin of safety, or the ability to weather periods when things go less well than you expected.Stop trying to predict the macro; study the micro like mad in order to know your subject better than others. Understand that you can expect to succeed only if you have a knowledge advantage, and be realistic about whether you have it or not. Recognize that trying harder isn't enough. Accept my son Andrew's view that merely possessing \"readily available quantitative information regarding the present\" won't give you above-average results, since everyone else has it.Recognize that psychology swings much more than fundamentals, and usually in the wrong direction or at the wrong time. Understand the importance of resisting those swings. Profit if you can by being counter-cyclical and contrarian.Study conditions in the investment environment - especially investor behavior - and consider where things stand in terms of the cycle. Understand that where the market stands in its cycle will strongly influence whether the odds are in your favor or against you.Buy debt when you like the yield, not for trading purposes. In other words, buy 9% bonds if you think the yield compensates you for the risk, and you'll be happy with 9%. Don't buy 9% bonds expecting to make 11% thanks to price appreciation resulting from declining interest rates.Of critical importance, equity investors should make their primary goals (A) participating in the secular growth of economies and companies and (B) benefiting from the wonder of compounding. Think about the 10.5% yearly return of the S&P 500 Index (or its predecessors) since 1926 and the fact that this would have turned $1 into over $13,000 by now, even though the period witnessed 16 recessions, one Great Depression, several wars, one World War, a global pandemic, and many instances of geopolitical turmoil.Think of participating in the long-term performance of the average as the main event and the active efforts to improve on it as \"embroidery around the edges.\" This might be the reverse of most active investors' attitudes. Improving results through over- and underweighting, short-term trading, market timing, and other active measures aren't easy. Believing you can do these things successfully requires the assumption that you're smarter than a bunch of very smart people. Think twice before proceeding, as the requirements for success are high (see below).Don't mess it up by over-trading. Think of buying and selling as an expense item, not a profit center. I love the idea of the automated factory of the future, with one man and one dog; The dog's job is to keep the man from touching the machinery, and the man's job is to feed the dog. Investors should find a way to keep their hands off their portfolios most of the time.A Special Word in Closing: Asymmetry\"Asymmetry\" is a concept I've been conscious of for decades and consider more important with every passing year. It's my word for the essence of investment excellence and a standard against which investors should be measured.First, some definitions:I'm going to talk below about whether an investor has \"alpha.\" Alpha is technically defined as a return in excess of the benchmark return, but I prefer to think of it as a superior investing skill. It's the ability to find and exploit inefficiencies when they're present.Inefficiencies - mispricings or mistakes - represent instances when an asset's price diverges from its fair value. These divergences can show up as bargains or the opposite, over-pricings.Bargains will dependably perform better than other investments over time after adjustment for their riskiness. Over-pricings will do the opposite.\"Beta\" is an investor's or a portfolio's relative volatility, also described as relative sensitivity or systematic risk.People who believe in the efficient market hypothesis think of a portfolio's return as the product of the market's return multiplied by the portfolio's beta. This is all it takes to explain results since there are no mispricings to take advantage of in an efficient market (and so no such thing as alpha). Thus, alpha is a skill that enables an investor to produce performance better than that which is explained purely by market return and beta. Another way to say this is that having alpha allows an investor to enjoy profit potential that is disproportionate to loss potential: asymmetry. In my view, asymmetry is present when an investor can repeatedly do some or all of the following:make more money in good markets than he gives back in bad markets,have more winners than losers,make more money on his winners than he loses on his losers,do well when his aggressive or defensive bias proves timely but not badly when it doesn't,do well when his sector or strategy is in favor but not badly when it isn't, andconstruct portfolios so that most of the surprises are on the upside.For example, most of us have an inherent bias toward either aggressiveness or defensiveness. For this reason, it doesn't mean much if an aggressive investor outperforms in a good year or a defensive investor outperforms in a bad year. To determine whether they have alpha and produce asymmetry, we have to consider whether the aggressive investor is able to avoid the full loss that his aggressiveness alone would produce in a bad market and whether the defensive investor can avoid missing out on too much of the gain when the market does well. In my opinion, \"excellence\" lies in the asymmetry between the results in good and bad times.As I see it, if inefficiencies are present in an investor's market, and she has alpha, the impact will show up in asymmetrical returns. If her returns show no asymmetry, the investor doesn't have alpha (or perhaps there are no inefficiencies for her to identify). Flipping that over, if an investor doesn't have alpha, her returns won't be asymmetrical. It's as simple as that.To simplify, here's what I think about asymmetry. This discussion is based on material I included in my 2018 book Mastering the Market Cycle:Getting the Odds on Your Side. While I may appear to be talking about one good year and one bad one, these observations can only be considered valid if these patterns hold over a meaningful number of years.Let's consider a manager's performance:Market performance+10%-10%Manager A+10%-10%The above manager clearly adds no value. You might as well invest in an index fund (probably at a much lower fee).These two managers also add no value:Market performance+10%-10%Manager B+5%-5%Manager C+20%-20%Manager B is just a no-alpha manager with a beta of 0.5, and manager C is a no-alpha manager with a beta of 2.0. You could get the same results as manager B by putting half your capital in an index fund and keeping the rest under your mattress and in the case of manager C, by doubling your investment with borrowed capital and putting it all in an index fund.These two managers, however, do have alpha, as they exhibit asymmetry:Market performance+10%-10%Manager D+17%-12%Manager E+9%-3%Both managers' returns reflect more of the market's gain in good times than they do its loss in bad ones. Manager D might be described as an aggressive manager with alpha; she achieves 170% of the market's return when the market rises but suffers only 120% of the loss when it falls. Manager E is a defensive manager with alpha; his returns reflect 90% of the gain in an up market but only 30% of the loss in a down market. These asymmetries can only be attributed to the presence of alpha. Risk-tolerant clients will prefer to invest in D, and risk-averse ones will prefer E.This manager is truly exceptional:Market performance+10%-10%Manager F+20%-5%She beat the market in both directions: She's up more than the market when it rises and down less when it falls. She's up so much in a good market that you might be tempted to describe her as aggressive. But since she's down less in a down market, that description won't hold. Either she doesn't have a bias in terms of aggressiveness versus defensiveness, or her alpha is great enough to offset it.Finally, here's one of the greatest managers of all time:Market performance+10%-10%Manager G+20%+5%Manager G is up in good and bad markets alike. He clearly doesn't have an aggressiveness/defensiveness bias, since his performance is exceptional in both markets. His alpha is sufficient to enable him to buck the trend and achieve a positive return in a down year. When you find Manager G, you should (A) do extensive due diligence regarding his reported performance, (B) if the numbers hold up, invest a lot of money with him, (C) hope he won't accept so much money that his edge goes away, and (D) send me his number.What matters most? Asymmetry.In sum, asymmetry shows up in a manager's ability to do very well when things go his way and not too bad when they don't.A great adage says, \"Never confuse brains and a bull market.\" Managers with the skill needed to produce asymmetry are special because they're able to fashion good gains from sources other than market advances.When you think about it, the active investment business is, at its heart, completely about asymmetry. If a manager's performance doesn't exceed what can be explained by market returns and his relative risk posture - which stems from his choice of market sector, tactics, and level of aggressiveness - he simply hasn't earned his fees.Without asymmetry (see Managers A, B, and C on page 12), active management delivers no value and deserves no fees. Indeed, all the choices an active investor makes will be for naught if he doesn't possess superior skill or insight. By definition, average investors and below-average investors don't have alpha and can't produce asymmetry.The big question is how to achieve asymmetry. Most of the things people focus on - the things I describe on pages one through nine as not mattering - can't provide it. As I've said before, the average of all investors' thinking produces market prices and, obviously, average performance. Asymmetry can only be demonstrated by the relatively few people with superior skill and insight. The key lies in finding them.Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001660118,"gmtCreate":1641248992425,"gmtModify":1676533586645,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001660118","repostId":"2200403714","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200403714","pubTimestamp":1641163785,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200403714?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-03 06:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"December jobs report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, CES: What to know this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200403714","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors can expect a busy first week of 2022, laden with key economic releases out of Washington t","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Investors can expect a busy first week of 2022, laden with key economic releases out of Washington that include the highly-anticipated December jobs report and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest policy-setting meeting.</p><p>It was a hectic final month of 2021 for markets, stocks rallied to new highs and the action could pour into the new year’s opening week of trading with a boost from what is known as the “January Effect” — the perception of a seasonal rise in U.S. equities during the first month of the year.</p><p>Wall Street attributes the theory to an increase in purchasing following the drop in prices that occurs in December when investors sell positions that have declined in order to take the capital loss in that calendar year&#39;s taxes. Some also think the anomaly is the result of traders using year-end cash bonuses to purchase equities the following month.</p><p>Employment data will be in the spotlight this week. The Department of Labor’s monthly jobs report due for release on Friday will offer an updated look at the strength of hiring and labor force participation — important measures of the U.S. economy, made even more consequential in recent weeks amid a backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases as investors look to assess the impact of the the latest Omicron-driven wave.</p><p>Consensus economist estimates suggest that about 400,000 jobs were added in December, with the pace of hiring nearly doubling from the fewer-than-expected 210,000 recorded in November, when forecasts predicted a half-million new jobs to return. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.1% from 4.3% in November when it ticked down to the lowest read since March 2020.</p><p>Although the pace of non-farm payrolls is projected to have risen in December, the downside risk to estimates may be “sizable.”</p><p>“COVID caseloads have been on the rise since November, and news that Omicron could be more infectious than previous variants circulated widely during the December survey period,” Bloomberg economists wrote in a note. “Given how often households have cited fear of COVID or care-taking needs related to COVID as the most important reasons for staying out of the job market, the emergence of the Omicron variant could continue to discourage them.”</p><p>Despite steady rehiring since the peak of the pandemic, labor force participation remains short of pre-virus levels. The civilian labor force was down by about 2.4 million participants as of November, compared to February 2020. Labor issues are also fueling surging inflation levels, as companies large and small face logistical challenges, including rising business costs and supply chain bottlenecks caused by a shortage of workers.</p><p>“This severe labor market shortage — more than any other economic factor — is accounting for a massive breakdown in the normally well-oiled global supply chain,” experts at Wilmington Trust said in their 2022 Capital Markets Outlook. “Labor participation and how firms deal with global resource disorder will likely determine the path for inflation, which is the critical consideration for investors in 2022.”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792826db78c3c5bac082a3cd1bbe34c2\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"685\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>With inflation at the forefront, investors will also set their sights on the Federal Reserve as it looks to raise interest rates this year to offset swelling price levels. The pace of these hikes will determine the stock market’s path forward in the new year.</p><p>Minutes from the FOMC’s Dec. 15 policy-setting meeting, due out Wednesday, could give investors a better picture of where policymakers see interest rates going in 2022.</p><p>Fed officials indicated last month that all 18 members predict at least one 25 basis point hike next year, with the median member forecasting three rate hikes before 2022 is over. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled to take place on Jan. 25 and 26.</p><p>“What’s not changed is the focus on inflation, that’s the biggest risk,” Brigg Macadam founding partner Greg Swenson told Yahoo Finance Live, adding that the Fed changing its tone is “too little, too late.”</p><p>“They are still, by most measures, quite dovish, even with the tapering of bond purchases and the market pricing in three hikes next year, you’ll still have dramatically negative real rates,” he said. “I wouldn’t call that a hawkish Fed — maybe their tone has changed a little bit and they have definitely stopped using the word ‘transitory,’ they have all but admitted that they missed inflation and underestimated it.”</p><p>Although earnings season doesn’t fully commence until around mid-month, several notable off-cycle reports are due out this week, including ones from Jefferies, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, and Walgreens.</p><p>CES, the Consumer Technology Association&#39;s iconic consumer electronics show will also take place from Jan. 5-7 in Las Vegas, but will end one day earlier than initially planned due to fast-spreading cases of COVID-19. The event may also have a light crowd, with some usual, big name attendees like Apple, Alphabet and Facebook&#39;s parent Meta dropping their plans to attend in-person under the circumstances.</p><h2>Economic calendar</h2><ul><li><p><b>Monday:</b> Markit US Manufacturing PMI, December final (57.7 estimated, 57.8 prior); Construction Spending, month over month, November (0.7% estimated, 0.2% prior month)</p></li><li><p><b>Tuesday:</b> ISM New Orders, December (61.5% prior month); ISM Prices Paid, December (79.3 estimated, 82.4 prior month); ISM Manufacturing, December (60.2 estimated, 61.1) prior month); ISM Employment, December (53.3 prior month); JOLTS job openings, November (11,033,000 prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, December (13,100,000 expected, 12,860,000 prior month)</p></li><li><p><b>Wednesday:</b> MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Dec. 31 (-0.6% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, December (360,000 expected, 534,000 during prior month); Markit US Composite PMI, December final (56.9 prior month); Markit US Services PMI, December final (57.5 expected, 57.5 prior month); FOMC Meeting Minutes, December 15</p></li><li><p><b>Thursday: </b>Challenger Job Cuts, year over year, December (-77% prior); Trade Balance, November (-$74,000,000,000 expected, -$67,000,000,000); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended January 1 (199,000 expected, 198,000 during prior week) Continuing Claims, week ended January 1 (1,715,000 expected, 1,716,000 prior week); Langer Consumer Comfort, January 2 (47.9 prior); Factory Orders excluding transportation, November (1.6% prior); Factory Orders, November (1.5% expected, 1.0% prior) ISM Services Index, December (67.0 expected, 69.1 prior); Durable Goods Orders, November final (2.5% prior); Durable Goods Excluding Transportation, November final (0.8% prior); Capital Goods Orders Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, November final (-0.1%); Capital Goods Shipments Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, November final (0.3%)</p></li><li><p><b>Friday:</b> Revisions – Employment Report, Household Survey; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, December (82,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, December (400,000 expected, 210,000 prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, December (370,000 expected, 235,000 prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, December (33,000 expected, 31,000 prior month); Unemployment Rate, December (4.1 expected, 4.3% prior); Average Hourly Earnings, month over month, December (0.4% expected, 0.3% prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year over year (4.2% expected, 4.8% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, December (34.8 expected, 34.8 prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, December (61.9% expected, 61.8% prior month); Underemployment Rate, December (7.8% prior month); Consumer Credit, November (22,500,000,000 expected, 16,897,000,000 prior month)</p></li></ul><h2>Earnings calendar</h2><ul><li><p><b>Monday:</b> <i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li><li><p><b>Tuesday:</b> Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MLKN\">MillerKnoll</a> (MLKN) after market close</p></li><li><p><b>Wednesday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MULN\">Mullen Automotive</a> Inc. (MULN)</p></li><li><p><b>Thursday</b>: Bed Bath &amp; Beyond Inc. (BBY) before market open, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STZ\">Constellation Brands Inc</a>. (STZ) before market open, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> (WBA) before market opens, PriceSmart (PSMT) after market close</p></li><li><p><b>Friday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li></ul></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>December jobs report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, CES: What to know this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDecember jobs report, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, CES: What to know this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-03 06:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-fomc-meeting-minutes-what-to-know-this-week-171353443.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors can expect a busy first week of 2022, laden with key economic releases out of Washington that include the highly-anticipated December jobs report and minutes from the Federal Open Market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-fomc-meeting-minutes-what-to-know-this-week-171353443.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","STZ":"星座品牌","BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","FOMC":"FOMO CORP.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","JEF":"杰富瑞","BK4143":"办公服务与用品","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4504":"桥水持仓","MULN":"Mullen Automotive","BBBY":"3B家居","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4169":"酿酒商与葡萄酒商","MLKN":"MillerKnoll","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4128":"药品零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","WBA":"沃尔格林联合博姿","PSMT":"普尔斯玛特","BBY":"百思买","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-jobs-report-fomc-meeting-minutes-what-to-know-this-week-171353443.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200403714","content_text":"Investors can expect a busy first week of 2022, laden with key economic releases out of Washington that include the highly-anticipated December jobs report and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest policy-setting meeting.It was a hectic final month of 2021 for markets, stocks rallied to new highs and the action could pour into the new year’s opening week of trading with a boost from what is known as the “January Effect” — the perception of a seasonal rise in U.S. equities during the first month of the year.Wall Street attributes the theory to an increase in purchasing following the drop in prices that occurs in December when investors sell positions that have declined in order to take the capital loss in that calendar year's taxes. Some also think the anomaly is the result of traders using year-end cash bonuses to purchase equities the following month.Employment data will be in the spotlight this week. The Department of Labor’s monthly jobs report due for release on Friday will offer an updated look at the strength of hiring and labor force participation — important measures of the U.S. economy, made even more consequential in recent weeks amid a backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases as investors look to assess the impact of the the latest Omicron-driven wave.Consensus economist estimates suggest that about 400,000 jobs were added in December, with the pace of hiring nearly doubling from the fewer-than-expected 210,000 recorded in November, when forecasts predicted a half-million new jobs to return. The unemployment rate is also expected to improve further to 4.1% from 4.3% in November when it ticked down to the lowest read since March 2020.Although the pace of non-farm payrolls is projected to have risen in December, the downside risk to estimates may be “sizable.”“COVID caseloads have been on the rise since November, and news that Omicron could be more infectious than previous variants circulated widely during the December survey period,” Bloomberg economists wrote in a note. “Given how often households have cited fear of COVID or care-taking needs related to COVID as the most important reasons for staying out of the job market, the emergence of the Omicron variant could continue to discourage them.”Despite steady rehiring since the peak of the pandemic, labor force participation remains short of pre-virus levels. The civilian labor force was down by about 2.4 million participants as of November, compared to February 2020. Labor issues are also fueling surging inflation levels, as companies large and small face logistical challenges, including rising business costs and supply chain bottlenecks caused by a shortage of workers.“This severe labor market shortage — more than any other economic factor — is accounting for a massive breakdown in the normally well-oiled global supply chain,” experts at Wilmington Trust said in their 2022 Capital Markets Outlook. “Labor participation and how firms deal with global resource disorder will likely determine the path for inflation, which is the critical consideration for investors in 2022.”With inflation at the forefront, investors will also set their sights on the Federal Reserve as it looks to raise interest rates this year to offset swelling price levels. The pace of these hikes will determine the stock market’s path forward in the new year.Minutes from the FOMC’s Dec. 15 policy-setting meeting, due out Wednesday, could give investors a better picture of where policymakers see interest rates going in 2022.Fed officials indicated last month that all 18 members predict at least one 25 basis point hike next year, with the median member forecasting three rate hikes before 2022 is over. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled to take place on Jan. 25 and 26.“What’s not changed is the focus on inflation, that’s the biggest risk,” Brigg Macadam founding partner Greg Swenson told Yahoo Finance Live, adding that the Fed changing its tone is “too little, too late.”“They are still, by most measures, quite dovish, even with the tapering of bond purchases and the market pricing in three hikes next year, you’ll still have dramatically negative real rates,” he said. “I wouldn’t call that a hawkish Fed — maybe their tone has changed a little bit and they have definitely stopped using the word ‘transitory,’ they have all but admitted that they missed inflation and underestimated it.”Although earnings season doesn’t fully commence until around mid-month, several notable off-cycle reports are due out this week, including ones from Jefferies, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Walgreens.CES, the Consumer Technology Association's iconic consumer electronics show will also take place from Jan. 5-7 in Las Vegas, but will end one day earlier than initially planned due to fast-spreading cases of COVID-19. The event may also have a light crowd, with some usual, big name attendees like Apple, Alphabet and Facebook's parent Meta dropping their plans to attend in-person under the circumstances.Economic calendarMonday: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, December final (57.7 estimated, 57.8 prior); Construction Spending, month over month, November (0.7% estimated, 0.2% prior month)Tuesday: ISM New Orders, December (61.5% prior month); ISM Prices Paid, December (79.3 estimated, 82.4 prior month); ISM Manufacturing, December (60.2 estimated, 61.1) prior month); ISM Employment, December (53.3 prior month); JOLTS job openings, November (11,033,000 prior month); WARDS Total Vehicle Sales, December (13,100,000 expected, 12,860,000 prior month)Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended Dec. 31 (-0.6% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, December (360,000 expected, 534,000 during prior month); Markit US Composite PMI, December final (56.9 prior month); Markit US Services PMI, December final (57.5 expected, 57.5 prior month); FOMC Meeting Minutes, December 15Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, year over year, December (-77% prior); Trade Balance, November (-$74,000,000,000 expected, -$67,000,000,000); Initial Jobless Claims, week ended January 1 (199,000 expected, 198,000 during prior week) Continuing Claims, week ended January 1 (1,715,000 expected, 1,716,000 prior week); Langer Consumer Comfort, January 2 (47.9 prior); Factory Orders excluding transportation, November (1.6% prior); Factory Orders, November (1.5% expected, 1.0% prior) ISM Services Index, December (67.0 expected, 69.1 prior); Durable Goods Orders, November final (2.5% prior); Durable Goods Excluding Transportation, November final (0.8% prior); Capital Goods Orders Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, November final (-0.1%); Capital Goods Shipments Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts, November final (0.3%)Friday: Revisions – Employment Report, Household Survey; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, December (82,000 prior); Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, December (400,000 expected, 210,000 prior month); Change in Private Payrolls, December (370,000 expected, 235,000 prior month); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, December (33,000 expected, 31,000 prior month); Unemployment Rate, December (4.1 expected, 4.3% prior); Average Hourly Earnings, month over month, December (0.4% expected, 0.3% prior month); Average Hourly Earnings, year over year (4.2% expected, 4.8% prior month); Average Weekly Hours All Employees, December (34.8 expected, 34.8 prior month); Labor Force Participation Rate, December (61.9% expected, 61.8% prior month); Underemployment Rate, December (7.8% prior month); Consumer Credit, November (22,500,000,000 expected, 16,897,000,000 prior month)Earnings calendarMonday: No notable reports scheduled for releaseTuesday: Jefferies Financial Group (JEF), MillerKnoll (MLKN) after market closeWednesday: Mullen Automotive Inc. (MULN)Thursday: Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBY) before market open, Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) before market open, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) before market opens, PriceSmart (PSMT) after market closeFriday: No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":180,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000825007,"gmtCreate":1640125565228,"gmtModify":1676533501510,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000825007","repostId":"1172622709","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172622709","pubTimestamp":1640096106,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172622709?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-12-21 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. current account deficit widens to biggest in 15 years in Q3","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172622709","media":"Reuters","summary":"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit surged to a 15-year high in the third quarte","content":"<p>WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit surged to a 15-year high in the third quarter amid a record increase in imports as businesses rushed to replenish depleted inventories.</p>\n<p>The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, accelerated 8.3% to $214.8 billion last quarter. That was the biggest shortfall since the third quarter of 2006.</p>\n<p>Data for the second quarter was revised to show a $198.3 billion deficit, instead of $190.3 billion as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a $205.0 billion deficit last quarter.</p>\n<p>The current account gap represented 3.7% of gross domestic product. That was the largest share since the fourth quarter of 2008 and was up from 3.5% in the April-June quarter.</p>\n<p>Still, the deficit remains below a peak of 6.3% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 as the United States is now a net exporter of crude oil and fuel.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. current account deficit widens to biggest in 15 years in Q3</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. current account deficit widens to biggest in 15 years in Q3\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-21 22:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-current-account-deficit-widens-135406392.html><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit surged to a 15-year high in the third quarter amid a record increase in imports as businesses rushed to replenish depleted inventories.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-current-account-deficit-widens-135406392.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-current-account-deficit-widens-135406392.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172622709","content_text":"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit surged to a 15-year high in the third quarter amid a record increase in imports as businesses rushed to replenish depleted inventories.\nThe Commerce Department said on Tuesday that the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, accelerated 8.3% to $214.8 billion last quarter. That was the biggest shortfall since the third quarter of 2006.\nData for the second quarter was revised to show a $198.3 billion deficit, instead of $190.3 billion as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a $205.0 billion deficit last quarter.\nThe current account gap represented 3.7% of gross domestic product. That was the largest share since the fourth quarter of 2008 and was up from 3.5% in the April-June quarter.\nStill, the deficit remains below a peak of 6.3% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 as the United States is now a net exporter of crude oil and fuel.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968794733,"gmtCreate":1669328399923,"gmtModify":1676538182439,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968794733","repostId":"1193359618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193359618","pubTimestamp":1669293016,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1193359618?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-24 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193359618","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growin","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Palantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.</li><li>The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.</li><li>Stock-based compensations and the resulting dilution of outstanding shares are still discouraging for shareholders.</li><li>Although Palantir&#39;s stock has declined already 80% from its previous all-time high, the stock is still overvalued in my opinion and not a great investment.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a010feafd9264848fea7b7e30ebe25cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Scott Olson</span></p><p>My first and only article about Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) was published in February 2022. At that point, the stock was trading for $14 and although the stock had already declined 67% at that point from its previous all-time highs, I stated thatPalantir was a risky bet. In the meantime, the stock has been cut almost in half again and is now trading about 80% below its previous all-time high. Nevertheless, Palantir is still not a good investment, and I will explain why I am still cautious about the stock.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dde9d87a6c57be44bdc788e65a9bda1\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><h2>Quarterly Results</h2><p>We can start by looking at the third quarter results, which Palantir reported at the beginning of November. And for starters, we must point out that Palantir is still increasing with a solid growth rate while other technology companies are already struggling and are not able to report double-digit revenue growth anymore.</p><p>Revenue in the third quarter increased from $392.1 million in the same quarter last year to $477.9 million in this quarter – resulting in 21.9% year-over-year growth. Loss from operations declined from $91.9 million in Q3/21 to $62.2 million in Q3/22 and although Palantir could improve, the business is still not profitable. But diluted net loss per share increased from $0.05 to a loss of $0.06 in this quarter.</p><p>Additionally, the total customers for Palantir increased from 203 in the same quarter last year to 337 right now – resulting in 66% year-over-year growth. And compared to the previous quarter, Palantir added 33 net new customers.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/775a52ff7988f009fb5679e4a65341e4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><p>During the third quarter of fiscal 2022, Palantir closed 78 deals of at least $1 million with 32 of these deals being at least $5 million and 19 deals were at least $10 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44937fe9eca5417fd0c51facb9d3648f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><p>And when looking at the guidance for fiscal 2022, Palantir is now expecting $1.9 billion to $1.902 billion in revenue. Palantir raised its guidance and is now expecting an adjusted income from operations to be between $384 million to $386 million.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54098b8b48757becfeea0894faab6e65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Palantir Q3/22 Presentation</span></p><h2>Growth Opportunities In Challenging Times</h2><p>But despite the raised guidance, when listening to Alexander Karp during the earnings calls or in interviews, he is seeing difficult times ahead. During the last earnings call, Alexander Karp made the following statement:</p><blockquote>By the way, that&#39;s why we prepared and then that&#39;s the technical thing. Why do we have 8 quarters of free cash flow? Do you think it&#39;s a coincidence, we were preparing for this. We have -- why do we have $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt? We weren&#39;t living in the metasphere. We were living in this world in the way we thought it would be -- and we&#39;ve been essentially -- you could even look at this as a prep. We&#39;re a prepper company. We&#39;ve been preparing it&#39;s like -- preppers have their rucksack and a rifle. We have PG, GAIA, Foundry and $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt. That&#39;s our company.</blockquote><p>And when looking at the balance sheet, Palantir is positioned quite well. On September 30, 2022, the company had $2,411 million in cash and cash equivalents as well as $57 million in short-term marketable securities. And aside from having no debt on the balance sheet, the company also has no goodwill on its balance sheet. In case of Palantir, 74% of its $3,319 million in total assets are highly liquid assets (cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities), which is good in case of crisis.</p><p>But not only is Palantir prepared for challenging times due to a solid balance sheet, Alexander Karp is also expecting the company to profit from the uncertain times ahead. During an interview with CNBC at the end of September, he made the following statement:</p><blockquote>Bad times are incredibly good for Palantir... bad times really uncover the durable companies, and tech is going through bad times... interest rates are the reason.</blockquote><p>Karp also states that Palantir’s software is at war – in Europe and around the world. And he sees the software as a way for nations to impose and defend their values. And Karp sees great growth potential in the years ahead – not only because Palantir might profit from bad times:</p><blockquote>We recognize that our path to growth is not always linear, but with the opportunity that lies ahead, we continue to recruit and retain the top talent at a time when other companies in the technology sector are slashing their plans and cutting workforces.</blockquote><blockquote>We have spent the last 2 decades building our products for the world in which we actually live. The disruption and uncertainty that we&#39;re seeing around us from Ukraine, the pandemic and inflation, it&#39;s driving customers towards us and to our software.</blockquote><p>In the second quarter earnings call, Alexander Karp said his ambition was to drive the company to $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025. In the same earnings call, Karp also expected that Palantir will finally be profitable in 2025. And of course, it is not unreasonable for Palantir to expect high growth rates. In its Form S-1. Palantir wrote its total addressable market [TAM] should be approximately $119 billion with the commercial sector being around $56 billion and the government sector being around $63 billion. This TAM is excluding institutions and countries where Palantir has chosen not to sell its software.</p><p>This seems to be in line with the expectations of other studies. And not only has Palantir a market share of only around 2% right now – giving the company enough room to grow by gaining market shares. Different studies are also expecting growth rates in the double digits for the market. When looking at the advanced analytics market, some expect even a CAGR above 20% in the years to come.</p><p>And during the last earnings call, Alexander Karp also pointed out where he is seeing the huge competitive advantage of Palantir – especially compared to peers like Microsoft (MSFT) or Snowflake (SNOW):</p><blockquote>The answer is really the ontology. It&#39;s why our platforms remain far ahead of the competition. And that&#39;s because the ontology, it&#39;s the missing link in terms of what you need to realize value from all of these investments. It&#39;s the component and the architecture that&#39;s required to get data apps to actually deliver value on top of cloud data warehouses or to get AI to scale throughout the enterprise or to turn your digital twin into something that&#39;s actionable and operational within the enterprise. And we&#39;ve spent 15 years investing in a road map that&#39;s deep and built upon the ontology, and it continues to be the focus of all the core investments that we&#39;re making around product.</blockquote><h2>Reservation Against Palantir</h2><p>But despite the competitive advantage Karp sees for Palantir in the years to come, the business is also facing risks in its path toward growth. In his last letter to shareholders, Alexander Karp wrote:</p><blockquote>It has been our experience, however, that some countries, particularly in continental Europe, including Germany, have fallen behind the United States in their willingness and ability to implement enterprise software systems that challenge existing habits and modes of operation.</blockquote><blockquote>There have been repeated attempts to build replicas of Silicon Valley in continental Europe, in Germany and elsewhere, but the results have been decidedly mixed.</blockquote><blockquote>We have found that large institutions in the United States have been far more willing to investigate the most significant sources of systemic dysfunction within their organizations, which in the current moment often relate to the ability or rather inability of an institution to metabolize its own data.</blockquote><p>And this is an aspect that should certainly not be underestimated for Palantir’s ambitions to grow in the years to come. And from a German perspective I think Karp is correct in his assessment of people living here (as well as institutions) having strong reservations against Palantir.</p><h2>Stock-Based Compensation Leading To Dilution</h2><p>Not only is the business facing several risks, but shareholders are also facing risks by owning the stock right now. And one huge risk shareholders are facing is the stock-based compensation which is leading to a constant dilution of shares and in the last few quarters, the number of outstanding shares increased with a high pace. Right now, we have 2,073 million outstanding shares compared to 1,964 million one year earlier and 1,763 million after the IPO of Palantir. This is resulting in an increase of almost 18% in less than two years and in my opinion, this is not a good sign for investors. And finally, this dilution has a huge negative impact on the intrinsic value of Palantir.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9fe6b4274d2704f89363d89bcddb6a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>Of course, stock-based compensations can also have a positive side as it is a good way to get great talent for the business and employees, that are behind the company and the company’s goals (as they are also profiting from a thriving business resulting in a higher share price). And this can certainly have a positive effect on the business in the long run. However, diluted in the high single digits annually is extreme – even for a company growing with a high pace.</p><h2>Intrinsic Value Calculation</h2><p>A final risk for shareholders is simply overpaying for a stock that is not worth what it is currently trading for.</p><p>We can start by looking at simple valuation metrics – especially the price-free-cash-flow ratio as well as the price-sales ratio. Looking at the price-earnings ratio doesn’t make much sense as the metric is negative. Of course, the price-sales ratio declined over the last year, but Palantir is still trading for 9 times sales which is certainly not cheap. When looking at the S&amp;P 500 (SPY), there are only about 45 companies trading with a higher price-sales ratio. And the median P/S ratio of the S&amp;P 500 is 2.72 at the time of writing. And even when looking at technology stocks (according to Finviz; market cap above $2 billion), the median P/S ratio is 4.41. But as long as we are talking about price-sales ratios we also have to point out that Snowflake is trading for 28 times sales right now and compared to these valuation multiples, Palantir’s valuation seems to be quite reasonable.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38f5a49a57b61fa9fbd749ed81950b1d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p>When looking at the price-free-cash-flow ratio, Palantir is trading for a multiple of 84. Although this is below the 2021 P/FCF peak of 750 and below the average of 227, Palantir is still trading for extremely high valuation multiples (and usually even high growth rates can’t justify valuation multiples close to 100). And once again, we can point out that Snowflake is trading for a P/FCF ratio of 155 – twice as high as Palantir.</p><p>When using a discount cash flow calculation, we can take the free cash flow of the last four quarters as basis. But let’s be more optimistic and use the highest free cash flow Palantir could report so far ($320 million in free cash flow). When taking this amount as basis and assume 6% growth till perpetuity (like we always do with high quality businesses) the company must grow its free cash flow about 17% annually for the next ten years to be fairly valued (assuming 2,073 million outstanding shares and a 10% discount rate).</p><p>I would not say such growth rates are impossible for a company – we can find several examples of businesses growing with such a CAGR over 10 years or even longer. But 17% growth for 10 years would probably be one of the highest growth rates I ever used in an intrinsic value calculation just to reach fair value for a stock. And these calculations are assuming no further dilution of shares, which seems rather unlikely at this point. In the last two years, the company has been diluting in the high single digits and to set dilution off, Palantir rather must grow its free cash flow about 25% annually to be fairly valued for the next few years. And 25% growth is also not impossible but no growth rate I would use in any way (in my opinion, this would be investing based on hope).</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>Although the stock price is now more than 40% lower than when my last article was published, I am afraid the conclusion must be the same. The stock is still not fairly valued and not a great investment. With thousands of other stocks being available and us being able to identify at least 100 high-quality businesses with a wide economic moat, I don’t see any reason to bet on Palantir. A company where it is difficult to estimate the growth potential and where the huge stock-based compensations and resulting stock dilutions are offsetting to any investor. And the potential high growth potential Palantir could have is not enough at this point to bet on Palantir.</p><p><i>This article is written by Daniel Schönberger for reference only. Please note the risks.</i></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: I Am Still Not Willing To Gamble\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-24 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.Stock...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560037-palantir-pltr-still-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193359618","content_text":"SummaryPalantir is still not profitable but reported solid third quarter results and is still growing with a healthy pace.The company could continue to grow with a high pace in the years to come.Stock-based compensations and the resulting dilution of outstanding shares are still discouraging for shareholders.Although Palantir's stock has declined already 80% from its previous all-time high, the stock is still overvalued in my opinion and not a great investment.Scott OlsonMy first and only article about Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) was published in February 2022. At that point, the stock was trading for $14 and although the stock had already declined 67% at that point from its previous all-time highs, I stated thatPalantir was a risky bet. In the meantime, the stock has been cut almost in half again and is now trading about 80% below its previous all-time high. Nevertheless, Palantir is still not a good investment, and I will explain why I am still cautious about the stock.Data by YChartsQuarterly ResultsWe can start by looking at the third quarter results, which Palantir reported at the beginning of November. And for starters, we must point out that Palantir is still increasing with a solid growth rate while other technology companies are already struggling and are not able to report double-digit revenue growth anymore.Revenue in the third quarter increased from $392.1 million in the same quarter last year to $477.9 million in this quarter – resulting in 21.9% year-over-year growth. Loss from operations declined from $91.9 million in Q3/21 to $62.2 million in Q3/22 and although Palantir could improve, the business is still not profitable. But diluted net loss per share increased from $0.05 to a loss of $0.06 in this quarter.Additionally, the total customers for Palantir increased from 203 in the same quarter last year to 337 right now – resulting in 66% year-over-year growth. And compared to the previous quarter, Palantir added 33 net new customers.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationDuring the third quarter of fiscal 2022, Palantir closed 78 deals of at least $1 million with 32 of these deals being at least $5 million and 19 deals were at least $10 million.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationAnd when looking at the guidance for fiscal 2022, Palantir is now expecting $1.9 billion to $1.902 billion in revenue. Palantir raised its guidance and is now expecting an adjusted income from operations to be between $384 million to $386 million.Palantir Q3/22 PresentationGrowth Opportunities In Challenging TimesBut despite the raised guidance, when listening to Alexander Karp during the earnings calls or in interviews, he is seeing difficult times ahead. During the last earnings call, Alexander Karp made the following statement:By the way, that's why we prepared and then that's the technical thing. Why do we have 8 quarters of free cash flow? Do you think it's a coincidence, we were preparing for this. We have -- why do we have $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt? We weren't living in the metasphere. We were living in this world in the way we thought it would be -- and we've been essentially -- you could even look at this as a prep. We're a prepper company. We've been preparing it's like -- preppers have their rucksack and a rifle. We have PG, GAIA, Foundry and $2.4 billion in the bank and no debt. That's our company.And when looking at the balance sheet, Palantir is positioned quite well. On September 30, 2022, the company had $2,411 million in cash and cash equivalents as well as $57 million in short-term marketable securities. And aside from having no debt on the balance sheet, the company also has no goodwill on its balance sheet. In case of Palantir, 74% of its $3,319 million in total assets are highly liquid assets (cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities), which is good in case of crisis.But not only is Palantir prepared for challenging times due to a solid balance sheet, Alexander Karp is also expecting the company to profit from the uncertain times ahead. During an interview with CNBC at the end of September, he made the following statement:Bad times are incredibly good for Palantir... bad times really uncover the durable companies, and tech is going through bad times... interest rates are the reason.Karp also states that Palantir’s software is at war – in Europe and around the world. And he sees the software as a way for nations to impose and defend their values. And Karp sees great growth potential in the years ahead – not only because Palantir might profit from bad times:We recognize that our path to growth is not always linear, but with the opportunity that lies ahead, we continue to recruit and retain the top talent at a time when other companies in the technology sector are slashing their plans and cutting workforces.We have spent the last 2 decades building our products for the world in which we actually live. The disruption and uncertainty that we're seeing around us from Ukraine, the pandemic and inflation, it's driving customers towards us and to our software.In the second quarter earnings call, Alexander Karp said his ambition was to drive the company to $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025. In the same earnings call, Karp also expected that Palantir will finally be profitable in 2025. And of course, it is not unreasonable for Palantir to expect high growth rates. In its Form S-1. Palantir wrote its total addressable market [TAM] should be approximately $119 billion with the commercial sector being around $56 billion and the government sector being around $63 billion. This TAM is excluding institutions and countries where Palantir has chosen not to sell its software.This seems to be in line with the expectations of other studies. And not only has Palantir a market share of only around 2% right now – giving the company enough room to grow by gaining market shares. Different studies are also expecting growth rates in the double digits for the market. When looking at the advanced analytics market, some expect even a CAGR above 20% in the years to come.And during the last earnings call, Alexander Karp also pointed out where he is seeing the huge competitive advantage of Palantir – especially compared to peers like Microsoft (MSFT) or Snowflake (SNOW):The answer is really the ontology. It's why our platforms remain far ahead of the competition. And that's because the ontology, it's the missing link in terms of what you need to realize value from all of these investments. It's the component and the architecture that's required to get data apps to actually deliver value on top of cloud data warehouses or to get AI to scale throughout the enterprise or to turn your digital twin into something that's actionable and operational within the enterprise. And we've spent 15 years investing in a road map that's deep and built upon the ontology, and it continues to be the focus of all the core investments that we're making around product.Reservation Against PalantirBut despite the competitive advantage Karp sees for Palantir in the years to come, the business is also facing risks in its path toward growth. In his last letter to shareholders, Alexander Karp wrote:It has been our experience, however, that some countries, particularly in continental Europe, including Germany, have fallen behind the United States in their willingness and ability to implement enterprise software systems that challenge existing habits and modes of operation.There have been repeated attempts to build replicas of Silicon Valley in continental Europe, in Germany and elsewhere, but the results have been decidedly mixed.We have found that large institutions in the United States have been far more willing to investigate the most significant sources of systemic dysfunction within their organizations, which in the current moment often relate to the ability or rather inability of an institution to metabolize its own data.And this is an aspect that should certainly not be underestimated for Palantir’s ambitions to grow in the years to come. And from a German perspective I think Karp is correct in his assessment of people living here (as well as institutions) having strong reservations against Palantir.Stock-Based Compensation Leading To DilutionNot only is the business facing several risks, but shareholders are also facing risks by owning the stock right now. And one huge risk shareholders are facing is the stock-based compensation which is leading to a constant dilution of shares and in the last few quarters, the number of outstanding shares increased with a high pace. Right now, we have 2,073 million outstanding shares compared to 1,964 million one year earlier and 1,763 million after the IPO of Palantir. This is resulting in an increase of almost 18% in less than two years and in my opinion, this is not a good sign for investors. And finally, this dilution has a huge negative impact on the intrinsic value of Palantir.Data by YChartsOf course, stock-based compensations can also have a positive side as it is a good way to get great talent for the business and employees, that are behind the company and the company’s goals (as they are also profiting from a thriving business resulting in a higher share price). And this can certainly have a positive effect on the business in the long run. However, diluted in the high single digits annually is extreme – even for a company growing with a high pace.Intrinsic Value CalculationA final risk for shareholders is simply overpaying for a stock that is not worth what it is currently trading for.We can start by looking at simple valuation metrics – especially the price-free-cash-flow ratio as well as the price-sales ratio. Looking at the price-earnings ratio doesn’t make much sense as the metric is negative. Of course, the price-sales ratio declined over the last year, but Palantir is still trading for 9 times sales which is certainly not cheap. When looking at the S&P 500 (SPY), there are only about 45 companies trading with a higher price-sales ratio. And the median P/S ratio of the S&P 500 is 2.72 at the time of writing. And even when looking at technology stocks (according to Finviz; market cap above $2 billion), the median P/S ratio is 4.41. But as long as we are talking about price-sales ratios we also have to point out that Snowflake is trading for 28 times sales right now and compared to these valuation multiples, Palantir’s valuation seems to be quite reasonable.Data by YChartsWhen looking at the price-free-cash-flow ratio, Palantir is trading for a multiple of 84. Although this is below the 2021 P/FCF peak of 750 and below the average of 227, Palantir is still trading for extremely high valuation multiples (and usually even high growth rates can’t justify valuation multiples close to 100). And once again, we can point out that Snowflake is trading for a P/FCF ratio of 155 – twice as high as Palantir.When using a discount cash flow calculation, we can take the free cash flow of the last four quarters as basis. But let’s be more optimistic and use the highest free cash flow Palantir could report so far ($320 million in free cash flow). When taking this amount as basis and assume 6% growth till perpetuity (like we always do with high quality businesses) the company must grow its free cash flow about 17% annually for the next ten years to be fairly valued (assuming 2,073 million outstanding shares and a 10% discount rate).I would not say such growth rates are impossible for a company – we can find several examples of businesses growing with such a CAGR over 10 years or even longer. But 17% growth for 10 years would probably be one of the highest growth rates I ever used in an intrinsic value calculation just to reach fair value for a stock. And these calculations are assuming no further dilution of shares, which seems rather unlikely at this point. In the last two years, the company has been diluting in the high single digits and to set dilution off, Palantir rather must grow its free cash flow about 25% annually to be fairly valued for the next few years. And 25% growth is also not impossible but no growth rate I would use in any way (in my opinion, this would be investing based on hope).ConclusionAlthough the stock price is now more than 40% lower than when my last article was published, I am afraid the conclusion must be the same. The stock is still not fairly valued and not a great investment. With thousands of other stocks being available and us being able to identify at least 100 high-quality businesses with a wide economic moat, I don’t see any reason to bet on Palantir. A company where it is difficult to estimate the growth potential and where the huge stock-based compensations and resulting stock dilutions are offsetting to any investor. And the potential high growth potential Palantir could have is not enough at this point to bet on Palantir.This article is written by Daniel Schönberger for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963562223,"gmtCreate":1668727630962,"gmtModify":1676538102139,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963562223","repostId":"2284724716","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284724716","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668719520,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284724716?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 05:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Applied Materials Forecasts Strong Q1 Revenue on Easing Supply Chain Woes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284724716","media":"Reuters","summary":"Chip tools maker Applied Materials Inc forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates on Thur","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Chip tools maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials Inc</a> forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates on Thursday, on hopes that easing supply chain constraints will help it meet pent up demand from chipmakers ramping up production.</p><p>Shares of the Santa Clara, California-based company rose nearly 3 per cent in trading after the bell.</p><p>Even though the wider chip industry is seeing sluggish demand for consumer electronics like PCs and smart phones, the growing adoption of 5G and shift to hybrid work still remains positive.</p><p>Moreover, Applied is also set to benefit from a US push to cut dependency on China and ramp up domestic chip output, prompting chipmakers like Intel Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to announce plans for new plants.</p><p>The company posted revenue of US$6.75 billion for the fourth quarter ended Oct 30, compared to analysts&#39; average expectation of US$6.45 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>Chief Executive Gary Dickerson said that the company is slowing the &#34;rate of spending growth in the near term amid geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.&#34;</p><p>The company forecast current-quarter revenue of US$6.70 billion, plus or minus US$400 million, compared with analysts&#39; average estimate of US$6.45 billion.</p><p>Applied said the outlook includes expected impact of recently announced US export regulations and ongoing supply chain challenges.</p><p>Earlier in October, the company said export restrictions to China would result in a US$250 million-US$550 million loss in net sales in the quarter ending Oct 30, with a similar impact expected in the following three months.</p><p>Excluding items, the company earned US$2.03 per share, beating estimates of US$1.73 per share.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Applied Materials Forecasts Strong Q1 Revenue on Easing Supply Chain Woes</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApplied Materials Forecasts Strong Q1 Revenue on Easing Supply Chain Woes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-18 05:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Chip tools maker <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">Applied Materials Inc</a> forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates on Thursday, on hopes that easing supply chain constraints will help it meet pent up demand from chipmakers ramping up production.</p><p>Shares of the Santa Clara, California-based company rose nearly 3 per cent in trading after the bell.</p><p>Even though the wider chip industry is seeing sluggish demand for consumer electronics like PCs and smart phones, the growing adoption of 5G and shift to hybrid work still remains positive.</p><p>Moreover, Applied is also set to benefit from a US push to cut dependency on China and ramp up domestic chip output, prompting chipmakers like Intel Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to announce plans for new plants.</p><p>The company posted revenue of US$6.75 billion for the fourth quarter ended Oct 30, compared to analysts&#39; average expectation of US$6.45 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>Chief Executive Gary Dickerson said that the company is slowing the &#34;rate of spending growth in the near term amid geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.&#34;</p><p>The company forecast current-quarter revenue of US$6.70 billion, plus or minus US$400 million, compared with analysts&#39; average estimate of US$6.45 billion.</p><p>Applied said the outlook includes expected impact of recently announced US export regulations and ongoing supply chain challenges.</p><p>Earlier in October, the company said export restrictions to China would result in a US$250 million-US$550 million loss in net sales in the quarter ending Oct 30, with a similar impact expected in the following three months.</p><p>Excluding items, the company earned US$2.03 per share, beating estimates of US$1.73 per share.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMAT":"应用材料"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284724716","content_text":"Chip tools maker Applied Materials Inc forecast first-quarter revenue above market estimates on Thursday, on hopes that easing supply chain constraints will help it meet pent up demand from chipmakers ramping up production.Shares of the Santa Clara, California-based company rose nearly 3 per cent in trading after the bell.Even though the wider chip industry is seeing sluggish demand for consumer electronics like PCs and smart phones, the growing adoption of 5G and shift to hybrid work still remains positive.Moreover, Applied is also set to benefit from a US push to cut dependency on China and ramp up domestic chip output, prompting chipmakers like Intel Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to announce plans for new plants.The company posted revenue of US$6.75 billion for the fourth quarter ended Oct 30, compared to analysts' average expectation of US$6.45 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.Chief Executive Gary Dickerson said that the company is slowing the \"rate of spending growth in the near term amid geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges.\"The company forecast current-quarter revenue of US$6.70 billion, plus or minus US$400 million, compared with analysts' average estimate of US$6.45 billion.Applied said the outlook includes expected impact of recently announced US export regulations and ongoing supply chain challenges.Earlier in October, the company said export restrictions to China would result in a US$250 million-US$550 million loss in net sales in the quarter ending Oct 30, with a similar impact expected in the following three months.Excluding items, the company earned US$2.03 per share, beating estimates of US$1.73 per share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963169556,"gmtCreate":1668635593876,"gmtModify":1676538086134,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963169556","repostId":"2283827074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2283827074","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1668601184,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2283827074?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-16 20:19","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Grab Lifts Revenue Outlook on Rideshare, Food Delivery Strength","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2283827074","media":"Reuters","summary":"Nov 16 (Reuters) - Grab Holdings Ltd on Wednesday raised its forecast for annual revenue as demand f","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Nov 16 (Reuters) - Grab Holdings Ltd on Wednesday raised its forecast for annual revenue as demand for its ride-hailing service and food deliveries remains strong across Southeast Asia.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of Southeast Asia&#39;s biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm rose 15% in trading before the bell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53ce28248e71c377ad01973fad01adf\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Decade-old Grab has become a go-to for consumers in the region as they increasingly step out and return to offices.</p><p>The company said it expected revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion. It had previously forecast revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion for the year.</p><p>Grab also raised its forecast for annual gross merchandise volume growth (GMV) to between 22% and 25%. It had previously forecast GMV growth of 21% to 25% for the year.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Lifts Revenue Outlook on Rideshare, Food Delivery Strength</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Lifts Revenue Outlook on Rideshare, Food Delivery Strength\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-11-16 20:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Nov 16 (Reuters) - Grab Holdings Ltd on Wednesday raised its forecast for annual revenue as demand for its ride-hailing service and food deliveries remains strong across Southeast Asia.</p><p>U.S.-listed shares of Southeast Asia&#39;s biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm rose 15% in trading before the bell.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53ce28248e71c377ad01973fad01adf\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"617\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Decade-old Grab has become a go-to for consumers in the region as they increasingly step out and return to offices.</p><p>The company said it expected revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion. It had previously forecast revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion for the year.</p><p>Grab also raised its forecast for annual gross merchandise volume growth (GMV) to between 22% and 25%. It had previously forecast GMV growth of 21% to 25% for the year.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2283827074","content_text":"Nov 16 (Reuters) - Grab Holdings Ltd on Wednesday raised its forecast for annual revenue as demand for its ride-hailing service and food deliveries remains strong across Southeast Asia.U.S.-listed shares of Southeast Asia's biggest ride-hailing and food delivery firm rose 15% in trading before the bell.Decade-old Grab has become a go-to for consumers in the region as they increasingly step out and return to offices.The company said it expected revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.35 billion. It had previously forecast revenue between $1.25 billion and $1.30 billion for the year.Grab also raised its forecast for annual gross merchandise volume growth (GMV) to between 22% and 25%. It had previously forecast GMV growth of 21% to 25% for the year.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9917747575,"gmtCreate":1665611998397,"gmtModify":1676537633826,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>bear","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/.IXIC\">$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>bear","text":"$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$bear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9917747575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001761563,"gmtCreate":1641334314882,"gmtModify":1676533597778,"author":{"id":"3584143012251602","authorId":"3584143012251602","name":"CKM72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9077cfb4a317713980b966d8db1d66","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584143012251602","authorIdStr":"3584143012251602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001761563","repostId":"2200406435","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2200406435","pubTimestamp":1641310325,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2200406435?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-04 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Wildly Undervalued Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2200406435","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Strong free cash flow and high growth rates are a winning combo.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>One of the hardest lessons for me as a new investor was to stop filtering out great, high-quality stocks that looked expensive by most traditional valuation metrics. Instead, I sought standard &#34;value&#34; and found companies that were incredibly cheap, but often seriously broken, that unfortunately deserved their discounted valuations.</p><p>By simply accepting that most premium stocks trade at expensive-looking valuations, I entered the land of long-term investing and ultimately multibagger potential.</p><p>Today we will study <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video Communications</b> (NASDAQ:ZM), <b>Pinterest</b> (NYSE:PINS), and <b>DocuSign</b> (NASDAQ:DOCU), three stocks that fit this expensive-looking mold, yet could be wildly undervalued when looking out over the next decade, thanks to their high revenue growth and strong free cash flow (FCF) generation.</p><h2>High growth at intriguing valuations</h2><table border=\"1\"><tbody><tr><th></th><th>Market Cap</th><th>Levered FCF</th><th>P/FCF Ratio</th><th>Revenue Growth YOY</th></tr><tr><td>Zoom Video</td><td>$55 billion</td><td>$1.51 billion</td><td>36</td><td>100%</td></tr><tr><td>Pinterest</td><td>$24 billion</td><td>$470 million</td><td>51</td><td>76%</td></tr><tr><td>DocuSign</td><td>$29 billion</td><td>$753 million</td><td>39</td><td>51%</td></tr></tbody></table><p>Data source: Yahoo! Finance and CMLViz statistics. Note that Levered FCF and Revenue Growth are using trailing 12-month figures. YOY = year over year. FCF = free cash flow. P/FCF = price-to-FCF.</p><p>While highly unscientific, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of my favorite ways to measure a stock&#39;s growth potential versus its current price is to compare year-over-year revenue growth with its price-to-FCF ratio. As shown in the table above, Zoom, Pinterest, and DocuSign all have a growth rate higher than their FCF multiples.</p><p>Whenever a stock&#39;s growth rate is higher than its FCF multiple, it catches my attention, highlighting the beautiful combination of solid sales growth with reasonably priced cash generation. With that in mind, let&#39;s look at my three recommendations.</p><h2>1. Zoom Video Communications</h2><p>First up today is the fastest growing and cheapest valuation of the trio, Zoom Video Communications. Because its share price has dropped nearly 50% over the last six months amid decelerating sales growth, Zoom looks attractively valued compared to the $1.5 billion in free cash flow it created over the previous 12 months.</p><p>While its 100% revenue growth over the last 12 months will probably not repeat in 2022, its third-quarter growth of 35% year over year is more than enough to make its freshly discounted valuation appealing. Furthermore, with 14 consecutive quarters with a dollar-based net expansion (DBNE) rate above 130%, Zoom has demonstrated that its land-and-expand business model is firing on all cylinders.</p><p>DBNE is a great way to measure increased product use by existing customers, despite not accounting for customer churn. For Zoom, this 130% rate is highly promising as it shows that it is getting its foot in the door with its famous Meetings product and upselling customers on newer products, such as Zoom Rooms and Zoom Phone. Should the company&#39;s DBNE continue at these levels, it will signal that its business model is still succeeding.</p><p>Furthermore, with international sales only accounting for 33% of Zoom&#39;s total revenue, its global ambitions are still in their infancy. This international growth runway, paired with the company&#39;s strong FCF and recently discounted share price, makes Zoom a great core holding for the next decade.</p><h2>2. Pinterest</h2><p>Next up, we have Pinterest with its inspiration-creating platform and newly developed FCF generation. Unfortunately, despite the promise of these positive cash flows, Pinterest&#39;s stock has dropped over 50% in the last six months, due to a rumored abandoned acquisition by <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a></b> and a decline in monthly active users (MAUs).</p><p>But two key things are happening behind the scenes for Pinterest, making today&#39;s valuation very tempting.</p><p>First, the company&#39;s fledgling shopping features are starting to take off, with product searches up over 100% for the third quarter, year over year. Better yet, members of the all-important Generation Z demographic (ages 9 to 24) increased their product searches on the shop tab by over 200% for the third quarter.</p><p>Second, despite having four times the number of international MAUs than in the U.S., the international segment only accounts for 21% of Pinterest&#39;s overall revenue. This is due to the massive gap in average revenue per user (ARPU) between U.S. and international users, which is $5.55 and $0.38, respectively.</p><p>This gap is essential for investors to watch as Pinterest launched its shopping features in seven key international markets during the third quarter: Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Brazil, and Mexico. As these markets mature, along with Pinterest&#39;s shopping features in general, investors should see this ARPU gap between the U.S. and international narrow, bringing strong monetization to the company&#39;s global footprint.</p><h2>3. DocuSign</h2><p>Famous for its e-signature product, DocuSign is on a mission to prove that it is more than just a one-trick pony. Moving beyond its e-signature dominance, the company has its eyes set on a broader target market that it hopes to serve through its Agreement Cloud, which consists of four segments: prepare, sign, act, and manage.</p><p>With its Agreement Cloud, DocuSign intends to parlay its leadership in e-signatures into becoming the leader in automated end-to-end agreement processes. While the company does not break out numbers for each segment of the Agreement Cloud, we can get a good idea of its ongoing success through DocuSign&#39;s 121% dollar-based net retention (DBNR) rate.</p><p>DBNR shows the rate at which existing customers are expanding their use of the company&#39;s products. Since DBNR includes customer churn, a figure above 120% is exceptional. So DocuSign&#39;s track record of being above this mark for six consecutive quarters is very impressive. It highlights the potential that might be building within the company&#39;s broader Agreement Cloud ambitions. And that makes DocuSign&#39;s 30% share-price drop in the last month an appealing entry point for new investors.</p><p>DocuSign already has a 17% FCF margin, which makes it look like another discounted, but strong, cash-generating stock to buy and hold for the next decade.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Wildly Undervalued Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Wildly Undervalued Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Next Decade\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-04 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/04/3-wildly-undervalued-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-th/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One of the hardest lessons for me as a new investor was to stop filtering out great, high-quality stocks that looked expensive by most traditional valuation metrics. Instead, I sought standard \"value\"...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/04/3-wildly-undervalued-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-th/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","FCF":"第一联邦金融","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4211":"区域性银行","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4525":"远程办公概念","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.","DOCU":"Docusign","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4528":"SaaS概念","ZM":"Zoom","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/04/3-wildly-undervalued-stocks-to-buy-and-hold-for-th/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2200406435","content_text":"One of the hardest lessons for me as a new investor was to stop filtering out great, high-quality stocks that looked expensive by most traditional valuation metrics. Instead, I sought standard \"value\" and found companies that were incredibly cheap, but often seriously broken, that unfortunately deserved their discounted valuations.By simply accepting that most premium stocks trade at expensive-looking valuations, I entered the land of long-term investing and ultimately multibagger potential.Today we will study Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), and DocuSign (NASDAQ:DOCU), three stocks that fit this expensive-looking mold, yet could be wildly undervalued when looking out over the next decade, thanks to their high revenue growth and strong free cash flow (FCF) generation.High growth at intriguing valuationsMarket CapLevered FCFP/FCF RatioRevenue Growth YOYZoom Video$55 billion$1.51 billion36100%Pinterest$24 billion$470 million5176%DocuSign$29 billion$753 million3951%Data source: Yahoo! Finance and CMLViz statistics. Note that Levered FCF and Revenue Growth are using trailing 12-month figures. YOY = year over year. FCF = free cash flow. P/FCF = price-to-FCF.While highly unscientific, one of my favorite ways to measure a stock's growth potential versus its current price is to compare year-over-year revenue growth with its price-to-FCF ratio. As shown in the table above, Zoom, Pinterest, and DocuSign all have a growth rate higher than their FCF multiples.Whenever a stock's growth rate is higher than its FCF multiple, it catches my attention, highlighting the beautiful combination of solid sales growth with reasonably priced cash generation. With that in mind, let's look at my three recommendations.1. Zoom Video CommunicationsFirst up today is the fastest growing and cheapest valuation of the trio, Zoom Video Communications. Because its share price has dropped nearly 50% over the last six months amid decelerating sales growth, Zoom looks attractively valued compared to the $1.5 billion in free cash flow it created over the previous 12 months.While its 100% revenue growth over the last 12 months will probably not repeat in 2022, its third-quarter growth of 35% year over year is more than enough to make its freshly discounted valuation appealing. Furthermore, with 14 consecutive quarters with a dollar-based net expansion (DBNE) rate above 130%, Zoom has demonstrated that its land-and-expand business model is firing on all cylinders.DBNE is a great way to measure increased product use by existing customers, despite not accounting for customer churn. For Zoom, this 130% rate is highly promising as it shows that it is getting its foot in the door with its famous Meetings product and upselling customers on newer products, such as Zoom Rooms and Zoom Phone. Should the company's DBNE continue at these levels, it will signal that its business model is still succeeding.Furthermore, with international sales only accounting for 33% of Zoom's total revenue, its global ambitions are still in their infancy. This international growth runway, paired with the company's strong FCF and recently discounted share price, makes Zoom a great core holding for the next decade.2. PinterestNext up, we have Pinterest with its inspiration-creating platform and newly developed FCF generation. Unfortunately, despite the promise of these positive cash flows, Pinterest's stock has dropped over 50% in the last six months, due to a rumored abandoned acquisition by PayPal and a decline in monthly active users (MAUs).But two key things are happening behind the scenes for Pinterest, making today's valuation very tempting.First, the company's fledgling shopping features are starting to take off, with product searches up over 100% for the third quarter, year over year. Better yet, members of the all-important Generation Z demographic (ages 9 to 24) increased their product searches on the shop tab by over 200% for the third quarter.Second, despite having four times the number of international MAUs than in the U.S., the international segment only accounts for 21% of Pinterest's overall revenue. This is due to the massive gap in average revenue per user (ARPU) between U.S. and international users, which is $5.55 and $0.38, respectively.This gap is essential for investors to watch as Pinterest launched its shopping features in seven key international markets during the third quarter: Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, Switzerland, Brazil, and Mexico. As these markets mature, along with Pinterest's shopping features in general, investors should see this ARPU gap between the U.S. and international narrow, bringing strong monetization to the company's global footprint.3. DocuSignFamous for its e-signature product, DocuSign is on a mission to prove that it is more than just a one-trick pony. Moving beyond its e-signature dominance, the company has its eyes set on a broader target market that it hopes to serve through its Agreement Cloud, which consists of four segments: prepare, sign, act, and manage.With its Agreement Cloud, DocuSign intends to parlay its leadership in e-signatures into becoming the leader in automated end-to-end agreement processes. While the company does not break out numbers for each segment of the Agreement Cloud, we can get a good idea of its ongoing success through DocuSign's 121% dollar-based net retention (DBNR) rate.DBNR shows the rate at which existing customers are expanding their use of the company's products. Since DBNR includes customer churn, a figure above 120% is exceptional. So DocuSign's track record of being above this mark for six consecutive quarters is very impressive. It highlights the potential that might be building within the company's broader Agreement Cloud ambitions. And that makes DocuSign's 30% share-price drop in the last month an appealing entry point for new investors.DocuSign already has a 17% FCF margin, which makes it look like another discounted, but strong, cash-generating stock to buy and hold for the next decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}