LynL personal page - To The Moon

LynL

LynL

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2022-10-06

$苹果(AAPL)$[微笑]

2022-10-05

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$[微笑]

2022-10-05

$联邦快递(FDX)$[开心]

2022-10-04

$苹果(AAPL)$[微笑]

2022-10-01

$苹果(AAPL)$[微笑]

2022-10-01

$苹果(AAPL)$[微笑]

2022-10-01

$Meta Platforms(FB)$[微笑]

2022-09-29

$波音(BA)$[得意]

2022-09-29

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2022-09-29

$波音(BA)$[微笑]

2022-09-29

$波音(BA)$[微笑]

2022-09-28

$理想汽车(LI)$[微笑]

2022-09-28

$苹果(AAPL)$[愤怒]

2022-09-28

$苹果(AAPL)$[微笑]

2022-09-28

$苹果(AAPL)$[微笑]

2022-09-28

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2022-09-27

$联邦快递(FDX)$[微笑]

2022-09-27

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2022-09-26

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@经济观察报:劉蘇裏：書店是個瞭望塔

2022-09-26

$理想汽车(LI)$[微笑]

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對於愛書的人來說，走進萬聖書園就像哈利·波特走入對角巷：一踏上那條咯吱作響的木質樓梯，邁進書籍錯落的殿堂，似乎就進入一個魔法結界——外面的嘈雜悄然遁去：紙墨與咖啡的香氣中時有低語傳來，店員踩着梯子忙上忙下，讀者在分類獨到的書架間安靜地翻閱着手中的書籍。 這種寧靜而又不失生機、在自己的領域裏各得其所又互不干擾的氛圍正是我們所期望的，可惜，許多同樣以此爲理想的書店與書店人，卻倒在了疫情、流量、商業模式面前。 如何讓一家書店在風吹雨打中一直保持着它原本該有的樣子？萬聖書園的負責人劉蘇里做了概括：一是熱愛，二是專業，三是要成體系。對於體系二字，劉蘇里認爲“很多人的理解都太簡單了。”他說：“如果不是出於作爲讀者對書的癡迷，我早就做不下去了，當人家專門來找某個領域的書，而你卻沒有，還能叫專業書店麼？” 我和劉蘇里先生聊了聊。 “元素週期表” 經濟觀察報：坊間傳聞說，您30秒就可以判斷一本書的質量，是真的嗎？如果是，面對那麼多不同專業的書籍，這項絕技是怎麼練出來的？ 劉蘇里：這件事確實是個真事，是在前互聯網時代鍛煉出來的技能，甚至有時還不需要30秒。這跟彼時的狀況有關，那時的訂貨會就是出版社擺地攤，兩天的時間，你要看幾百個出版社的幾萬種書，不僅要看完，還要下訂單，我猜，這件事的處理速度不比當年的計算機慢吧？ 怎麼做到的呢，我們心裏有一張類似“門捷列夫化學元素週期表”的知識圖表，訂書時只能看書名、作者、譯者、目錄，少部分品種會停下來了解它在該學科、領域中的位置。作爲一個賣書人，要知道哪些“元素”是已經被發現的，哪些元素是未知的，未知的便是採購目標。比如有一本書叫《黃郛傳》，寫蔣介石幕僚黃郛。這本書不怎麼樣，但之前沒有，填補了這段歷史知識的空白，聊勝於無，如果是《蔣經國傳》，那就另當別論了。 要做到這點，一方面是要對書有天然的親近感——看到書眼睛放光。另一方面就是通過業務訓練——","listText":"秦蓓蓓/文 對於愛書的人來說，走進萬聖書園就像哈利·波特走入對角巷：一踏上那條咯吱作響的木質樓梯，邁進書籍錯落的殿堂，似乎就進入一個魔法結界——外面的嘈雜悄然遁去：紙墨與咖啡的香氣中時有低語傳來，店員踩着梯子忙上忙下，讀者在分類獨到的書架間安靜地翻閱着手中的書籍。 這種寧靜而又不失生機、在自己的領域裏各得其所又互不干擾的氛圍正是我們所期望的，可惜，許多同樣以此爲理想的書店與書店人，卻倒在了疫情、流量、商業模式面前。 如何讓一家書店在風吹雨打中一直保持着它原本該有的樣子？萬聖書園的負責人劉蘇里做了概括：一是熱愛，二是專業，三是要成體系。對於體系二字，劉蘇里認爲“很多人的理解都太簡單了。”他說：“如果不是出於作爲讀者對書的癡迷，我早就做不下去了，當人家專門來找某個領域的書，而你卻沒有，還能叫專業書店麼？” 我和劉蘇里先生聊了聊。 “元素週期表” 經濟觀察報：坊間傳聞說，您30秒就可以判斷一本書的質量，是真的嗎？如果是，面對那麼多不同專業的書籍，這項絕技是怎麼練出來的？ 劉蘇里：這件事確實是個真事，是在前互聯網時代鍛煉出來的技能，甚至有時還不需要30秒。這跟彼時的狀況有關，那時的訂貨會就是出版社擺地攤，兩天的時間，你要看幾百個出版社的幾萬種書，不僅要看完，還要下訂單，我猜，這件事的處理速度不比當年的計算機慢吧？ 怎麼做到的呢，我們心裏有一張類似“門捷列夫化學元素週期表”的知識圖表，訂書時只能看書名、作者、譯者、目錄，少部分品種會停下來了解它在該學科、領域中的位置。作爲一個賣書人，要知道哪些“元素”是已經被發現的，哪些元素是未知的，未知的便是採購目標。比如有一本書叫《黃郛傳》，寫蔣介石幕僚黃郛。這本書不怎麼樣，但之前沒有，填補了這段歷史知識的空白，聊勝於無，如果是《蔣經國傳》，那就另當別論了。 要做到這點，一方面是要對書有天然的親近感——看到書眼睛放光。另一方面就是通過業務訓練——","text":"秦蓓蓓/文 對於愛書的人來說，走進萬聖書園就像哈利·波特走入對角巷：一踏上那條咯吱作響的木質樓梯，邁進書籍錯落的殿堂，似乎就進入一個魔法結界——外面的嘈雜悄然遁去：紙墨與咖啡的香氣中時有低語傳來，店員踩着梯子忙上忙下，讀者在分類獨到的書架間安靜地翻閱着手中的書籍。 這種寧靜而又不失生機、在自己的領域裏各得其所又互不干擾的氛圍正是我們所期望的，可惜，許多同樣以此爲理想的書店與書店人，卻倒在了疫情、流量、商業模式面前。 如何讓一家書店在風吹雨打中一直保持着它原本該有的樣子？萬聖書園的負責人劉蘇里做了概括：一是熱愛，二是專業，三是要成體系。對於體系二字，劉蘇里認爲“很多人的理解都太簡單了。”他說：“如果不是出於作爲讀者對書的癡迷，我早就做不下去了，當人家專門來找某個領域的書，而你卻沒有，還能叫專業書店麼？” 我和劉蘇里先生聊了聊。 “元素週期表” 經濟觀察報：坊間傳聞說，您30秒就可以判斷一本書的質量，是真的嗎？如果是，面對那麼多不同專業的書籍，這項絕技是怎麼練出來的？ 劉蘇里：這件事確實是個真事，是在前互聯網時代鍛煉出來的技能，甚至有時還不需要30秒。這跟彼時的狀況有關，那時的訂貨會就是出版社擺地攤，兩天的時間，你要看幾百個出版社的幾萬種書，不僅要看完，還要下訂單，我猜，這件事的處理速度不比當年的計算機慢吧？ 怎麼做到的呢，我們心裏有一張類似“門捷列夫化學元素週期表”的知識圖表，訂書時只能看書名、作者、譯者、目錄，少部分品種會停下來了解它在該學科、領域中的位置。作爲一個賣書人，要知道哪些“元素”是已經被發現的，哪些元素是未知的，未知的便是採購目標。比如有一本書叫《黃郛傳》，寫蔣介石幕僚黃郛。這本書不怎麼樣，但之前沒有，填補了這段歷史知識的空白，聊勝於無，如果是《蔣經國傳》，那就另當別論了。 要做到這點，一方面是要對書有天然的親近感——看到書眼睛放光。另一方面就是通過業務訓練——","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/661409314","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9911896081,"gmtCreate":1664166657344,"gmtModify":1676537401440,"author":{"id":"3584448408413612","authorId":"3584448408413612","name":"LynL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f11d47f7767554fedf0c04f98243f38","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584448408413612","idStr":"3584448408413612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a 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Energy(CEI)$</a>Good&nbsp;","text":"$Camber Energy(CEI)$Good","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4ff6553d9e22148d3d2c7c9557ae9efe","width":"1125","height":"3618"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020841418","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9061877535,"gmtCreate":1651619680476,"gmtModify":1676534934965,"author":{"id":"3584448408413612","authorId":"3584448408413612","name":"LynL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f11d47f7767554fedf0c04f98243f38","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584448408413612","idStr":"3584448408413612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>No worries&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>No worries&nbsp;","text":"$波音(BA)$No worries","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6058ebd5b1c4dea11e35efa2c9f46bf0","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9061877535","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9056960628,"gmtCreate":1654922494164,"gmtModify":1676535535539,"author":{"id":"3584448408413612","authorId":"3584448408413612","name":"LynL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f11d47f7767554fedf0c04f98243f38","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584448408413612","idStr":"3584448408413612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9056960628","repostId":"2242580893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2242580893","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1654920005,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2242580893?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-11 12:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed has stepped on another inflation thunder","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2242580893","media":"格隆汇","summary":"2021年以来，美联储接连在通胀上踩雷，本预期在5月继续回落的美国CPI，却意外回升。如我们此前的估计，2022年下半年通胀仍将是潜在的风险。5月超市场预期的数据下，通胀在年中回落的梦破碎了，那么，如","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Since 2021, the Federal Reserve has stepped on inflation one after another, and the US CPI, which was expected to continue to fall in May, unexpectedly rebounded. As we previously estimated, inflation will remain a potential risk in the second half of 2022. Under the data that exceeded market expectations in May, the dream of inflation falling back in the middle of the year was shattered. So, how to understand this impact on the subsequent Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the US economy?</p><p>The higher inflation, the faster the recession. The logic behind it is that the Fed can only suppress inflation through rapid rate hike. The follow-up rate hike will be fiercer, and the Fed's determination will be greater, which will suppress demand and suppress the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d96fa5b17b430f1e97013ccaed18928\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From the data point of view, pushed up by strong housing rents, gasoline and food prices, the US CPI hit a new high since 1981 in May: energy rose by 3.9% month-on-month, of which gasoline rose by 4.1% month-on-month, food rose by 1.2% month-on-month, and household food rose by 1.4% month-on-month (Table 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/423b3f96267d75d04e1ebbab2c09cf16\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Core inflation has fallen for two consecutive months, but the speed is miss the market expectation, mainly constrained by two factors:</p><p>First, the rising kinetic energy of housing rents has increased. In May 2022, the month-on-month growth rate of housing rents rose by 0.1% to 0.6%. Although the rate hike has slightly cooled the U.S. housing market, it has not yet caused enough damage to demand. However, the housing supply is still tight, the housing vacancy rate and rental vacancy rate are at a historically low level, and the imbalance between supply and demand has not been effectively alleviated (Figure 2-Figure 3). According to the analysis of historical data in our previous report \"How will US inflation peak and fall in 2022?\", the S&P US house price index is about 15 months ahead of rents, and the index peaked and fell in August 2021. From this, it is estimated that the decline of housing rent growth will have to wait until at least the beginning of 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2fa7d4c9c720a029522f1ae40f61e70\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, the mismatch between supply and demand continues. Under the supply chain disturbance, production capacity constraints that lead to high inflation still exist, and the supply of raw materials and intermediate goods required for industrial production in the United States is insufficient under the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the repeated epidemic in China. And the demand is still strong, which is also reflected in the micro-company level, Pepsi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>Some companies have raised their performance expectations because they say they can pass on the increase in costs to consumers by raising prices, so their profit margins have not been diluted while sales revenue has increased (Table 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c5bc278a6d465cc229a422899985053\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, the momentum of wage rises has slowed down, releasing some positive signals. On the one hand, wage growth in the United States has continued to decline since April 2022, and the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage in the private sector has declined from 5.6% in March to 5.2% in May (Figure 4).<b>On the other hand, U.S. companies are less inclined to attract job seekers by raising wages.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46df9c566ecf6bba460e1005368092a5\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Comparing the data from April and January this year, we can see that although the vacancy rate remains high, the correlation with the rate of wage growth is reduced (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cd6377a0752bffc1d6863c74e3d768\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"865\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>How much do Biden's tariff cuts contribute to suppressing inflation?</p><p><b>According to the calculation of Peterson Institute of Economics, if only tariffs on China are cancelled, the direct impact will only reduce the US CPI by 0.26% and the PCE by 0.35% (Figure 6);</b>Under the extreme assumption, if the United States and China cancel trade war tariffs, in addition to the United States canceling tariffs on steel and aluminum in all countries and tariffs on Canadian softwood, the CPI can drop by 1.3 percentage points, but this assumption is difficult to meet in reality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d682f7b47adf3a73d2840d9210140d09\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In this way, it will be difficult for the core CPI of the United States to drop to 4% in 2022. In addition to core CPI, Fed officials also pay attention to two types of indicators: one is the truncated average CPI affected by abnormal fluctuations in overall inflation, and the other is the counter-cyclical indicators (Atlanta Fed's sticky price CPI and San Francisco Fed's cyclical core PCE) are excluded from overall inflation, while some indicators are still rising (Figure 7).<b>This means that at the interest rate meeting to be held from June 15th to 16th, the Federal Reserve may raise its inflation forecast again.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cffaae3c8eaa52e3175dd4e578ad1ed5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The kinetic energy of inflation is difficult to reduce, and the probability of a rate hike of 50bps at the Fed's interest rate meeting in September has increased, and the rate hike may be above the neutral interest rate in 2022. Powell once said, \"We need to see inflation decline in a clear and convincing way, and we will continue to tighten until we see this.\" In this way, the Federal Reserve may adjust the pace of rate hike by 50bps in each rate hike at its three interest rate meetings from June to September until the indicators it observes show a broad inflation slowdown.</p><p>Risk warning: The COVID-19 virus mutation caused the vaccine to fail, and the outbreak of confirmed cases caused the U.S. economy to return to lockdown; Out of control situation in Russia and Ukraine causes violent fluctuations in commodity prices</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed has stepped on another inflation thunder</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed has stepped on another inflation thunder\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-11 12:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Since 2021, the Federal Reserve has stepped on inflation one after another, and the US CPI, which was expected to continue to fall in May, unexpectedly rebounded. As we previously estimated, inflation will remain a potential risk in the second half of 2022. Under the data that exceeded market expectations in May, the dream of inflation falling back in the middle of the year was shattered. So, how to understand this impact on the subsequent Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the US economy?</p><p>The higher inflation, the faster the recession. The logic behind it is that the Fed can only suppress inflation through rapid rate hike. The follow-up rate hike will be fiercer, and the Fed's determination will be greater, which will suppress demand and suppress the U.S. economy.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d96fa5b17b430f1e97013ccaed18928\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>From the data point of view, pushed up by strong housing rents, gasoline and food prices, the US CPI hit a new high since 1981 in May: energy rose by 3.9% month-on-month, of which gasoline rose by 4.1% month-on-month, food rose by 1.2% month-on-month, and household food rose by 1.4% month-on-month (Table 1).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/423b3f96267d75d04e1ebbab2c09cf16\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Core inflation has fallen for two consecutive months, but the speed is miss the market expectation, mainly constrained by two factors:</p><p>First, the rising kinetic energy of housing rents has increased. In May 2022, the month-on-month growth rate of housing rents rose by 0.1% to 0.6%. Although the rate hike has slightly cooled the U.S. housing market, it has not yet caused enough damage to demand. However, the housing supply is still tight, the housing vacancy rate and rental vacancy rate are at a historically low level, and the imbalance between supply and demand has not been effectively alleviated (Figure 2-Figure 3). According to the analysis of historical data in our previous report \"How will US inflation peak and fall in 2022?\", the S&P US house price index is about 15 months ahead of rents, and the index peaked and fell in August 2021. From this, it is estimated that the decline of housing rent growth will have to wait until at least the beginning of 2023.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2fa7d4c9c720a029522f1ae40f61e70\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Second, the mismatch between supply and demand continues. Under the supply chain disturbance, production capacity constraints that lead to high inflation still exist, and the supply of raw materials and intermediate goods required for industrial production in the United States is insufficient under the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the repeated epidemic in China. And the demand is still strong, which is also reflected in the micro-company level, Pepsi,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">Starbucks</a>Some companies have raised their performance expectations because they say they can pass on the increase in costs to consumers by raising prices, so their profit margins have not been diluted while sales revenue has increased (Table 2).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c5bc278a6d465cc229a422899985053\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>However, the momentum of wage rises has slowed down, releasing some positive signals. On the one hand, wage growth in the United States has continued to decline since April 2022, and the year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wage in the private sector has declined from 5.6% in March to 5.2% in May (Figure 4).<b>On the other hand, U.S. companies are less inclined to attract job seekers by raising wages.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46df9c566ecf6bba460e1005368092a5\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Comparing the data from April and January this year, we can see that although the vacancy rate remains high, the correlation with the rate of wage growth is reduced (Figure 5).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cd6377a0752bffc1d6863c74e3d768\" tg-width=\"786\" tg-height=\"865\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>How much do Biden's tariff cuts contribute to suppressing inflation?</p><p><b>According to the calculation of Peterson Institute of Economics, if only tariffs on China are cancelled, the direct impact will only reduce the US CPI by 0.26% and the PCE by 0.35% (Figure 6);</b>Under the extreme assumption, if the United States and China cancel trade war tariffs, in addition to the United States canceling tariffs on steel and aluminum in all countries and tariffs on Canadian softwood, the CPI can drop by 1.3 percentage points, but this assumption is difficult to meet in reality.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d682f7b47adf3a73d2840d9210140d09\" tg-width=\"788\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In this way, it will be difficult for the core CPI of the United States to drop to 4% in 2022. In addition to core CPI, Fed officials also pay attention to two types of indicators: one is the truncated average CPI affected by abnormal fluctuations in overall inflation, and the other is the counter-cyclical indicators (Atlanta Fed's sticky price CPI and San Francisco Fed's cyclical core PCE) are excluded from overall inflation, while some indicators are still rising (Figure 7).<b>This means that at the interest rate meeting to be held from June 15th to 16th, the Federal Reserve may raise its inflation forecast again.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cffaae3c8eaa52e3175dd4e578ad1ed5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The kinetic energy of inflation is difficult to reduce, and the probability of a rate hike of 50bps at the Fed's interest rate meeting in September has increased, and the rate hike may be above the neutral interest rate in 2022. Powell once said, \"We need to see inflation decline in a clear and convincing way, and we will continue to tighten until we see this.\" In this way, the Federal Reserve may adjust the pace of rate hike by 50bps in each rate hike at its three interest rate meetings from June to September until the indicators it observes show a broad inflation slowdown.</p><p>Risk warning: The COVID-19 virus mutation caused the vaccine to fail, and the outbreak of confirmed cases caused the U.S. economy to return to lockdown; Out of control situation in Russia and Ukraine causes violent fluctuations in commodity prices</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/532469\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/532469","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2242580893","content_text":"2021年以来，美联储接连在通胀上踩雷，本预期在5月继续回落的美国CPI，却意外回升。如我们此前的估计，2022年下半年通胀仍将是潜在的风险。5月超市场预期的数据下，通胀在年中回落的梦破碎了，那么，如何理解这对后续美联储货币政策和美国经济的影响呢？通胀越高，衰退越快。背后的逻辑在于美联储只能通过快速加息来压制通胀，后续加息会更猛，美联储的决心也将更大，而这将抑制需求，对美国经济形成压制。从数据上来看，强劲的住房租金、汽油和食品价格推升下，5月美国CPI创1981年以来新高：能源环比升3.9%，其中汽油环比升4.1%，食品环比升1.2%，其中家庭食品环比升1.4%（表1）。核心通胀连续两个月回落，但速度却不及市场预期，主要受到两个因素的制约：一是住房租金上涨动能增强。2022年5月住房租金环比增速升0.1%至0.6%，尽管加息使得美国房市略有降温，但尚未对需求产生足够的破坏，而住房供给仍旧偏紧，房屋空置率和出租空置率处在历史低位，供需不平衡的情况尚未有效缓解（图2-图3）。根据我们此前报告《2022年美国通胀如何见顶回落？》对历史数据的分析，标普美国房价指数约领先房租15个月，该指数于2021年8月见顶回落，由此推算住房租金增速的回落至少要等到2023年初。二是供需错配的持续。供应链扰动下，导致通胀高涨的产能限制仍存在，俄乌冲突、中国疫情反复下美国工业生产所需的原材料和中间品供给不足。而需求仍然强劲，这也体现在微观的公司层面，百事、星巴克等公司表示能够通过提价将成本的上涨转嫁给消费者，因而在销售收入增加的同时，利润率并未受到稀释，部分公司还因此调升了业绩预期（表2）。不过薪资上涨动能放缓，释放部分积极信号。一方面，2022年4月以来美国薪资增速持续回落，私人行业平均时薪同比增速已从3月的5.6%降至5月的5.2%（图4）。另一方面，美国公司通过提高工资来吸引求职者的倾向降低。对比今年4月和1月的数据可以看出，尽管职位空缺率仍居高位，但与工资增速的相关性降低（图5）。拜登削减关税对于压制通胀的贡献又有多大？根据彼得森经济研究所的测算，如果只取消对华关税，直接影响仅会使得美国CPI降0.26%，PCE降0.35%（图6）；极端假设下，若美国和中国取消贸易战关税，此外美国还取消对所有国家的钢铁和铝的关税以及对加拿大软木的关税，才能使得CPI下降1.3个百分点，但此假设在现实中难以被满足。如此看来，2022年年内美国核心CPI降至4%难度较大。除了核心CPI外，美联储官员还关注两类指标：一是在整体的通胀中剔除了异常波动项影响的截尾平均CPI，二是在整体通胀中剔除了反周期性影响的指标（亚特兰大联储的粘性价格CPI和旧金山联储的周期性核心PCE），而部分指标仍在上升（图7）。这意味着在将于6月15日至16日举行的议息会议上，美联储或再度上调通胀预测。通胀动能难减下，美联储9月议息会议加息50bps的概率加大，2022年内可能将加息至中性利率以上。鲍威尔曾表示“我们需要看到通胀以清晰而令人信服的方式下降，我们将继续收紧，直到看到这一点。”如此看来，美联储或将在6至9月三次议息会议上各加息50bps，直至其观测的指标显示出广泛的通胀放缓，再调整加息的步伐。风险提示：新冠病毒变异导致疫苗失效，确诊病例大爆发导致美国经济重回封锁；俄乌局势失控造成大宗商品价格剧烈波动","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9024343297,"gmtCreate":1653805047419,"gmtModify":1676535345162,"author":{"id":"3584448408413612","authorId":"3584448408413612","name":"LynL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f11d47f7767554fedf0c04f98243f38","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584448408413612","idStr":"3584448408413612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>😀","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>😀","text":"$波音(BA)$😀","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6d1aa0ad8d5253088431f654257919da","width":"1170","height":"2292"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9024343297","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9020251897,"gmtCreate":1652660543319,"gmtModify":1676535134332,"author":{"id":"3584448408413612","authorId":"3584448408413612","name":"LynL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f11d47f7767554fedf0c04f98243f38","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584448408413612","idStr":"3584448408413612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>But or wait?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>But or wait?&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$But or wait?","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7bbe0b6afee93a5232016de44b24b5a7","width":"1125","height":"3531"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020251897","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9066889671,"gmtCreate":1651885233893,"gmtModify":1676534990002,"author":{"id":"3584448408413612","authorId":"3584448408413612","name":"LynL","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0f11d47f7767554fedf0c04f98243f38","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584448408413612","idStr":"3584448408413612"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IMPP\">$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$</a>yup!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/IMPP\">$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$</a>yup!&nbsp;","text":"$Imperial Petroleum Inc(IMPP)$yup!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9016a874430984ee0451f82f45b87f2e","width":"1125","height":"3445"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9066889671","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}