月亮湾湾照狮城 personal page - To The Moon

月亮湾湾照狮城

月亮湾湾照狮城

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月亮湾湾照狮城

2021-05-29

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卖车亏钱，卖软件就赚钱？

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-22

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-07

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-09-26

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-09-24

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-22

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-17

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-06

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-03

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-17

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-10

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-05

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-15

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-09-29

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-09-21

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-09-17

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-07-27

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月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-30

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-14

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-12

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Bullish

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23:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"卖车亏钱，卖软件就赚钱？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155283133","media":"虎嗅","summary":"最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电","content":"<p>最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。</p><p>早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电速度。部分车主在进行升级软件之后，发现续航里程出现明显下滑情况。</p><p><b>对软件下手，特斯拉是一把好手。</b>据Electrek报道，截至2019年，特斯拉通过出售全自动驾驶FSD软件包获得的收入已经超过了10亿美元。不止是自动驾驶功能，包括加速性能、联网服务，特斯拉都从车主身上赚到了钱。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>可能是英雄所见略同。软件付费的模式也被国内造车新势力所推崇。尤其是在自动辅助驾驶功能上，小鹏汽车的XPILOT、蔚来的NIO Pilot都需要用户付费数万元进行选购。</p><p>付费选装本身没有争议，但是，传统车企在你没有选配的情况下几乎不会预装硬件。而包括<b>特斯拉在内的很多智能电动汽车，会先预装大量硬件，芯片、传感器等等。</b></p><p>购车价格里，似乎又隐形地包含了这些硬件配置的价格。比如蔚来ET7全系标配激光雷达，但软件大概率是额外付费才能用——付费模式，看来就像是毛利率极高的“收割模式”。</p><p>然而，造车新势力中也有“异类”——理想汽车就旗帜鲜明的站在了“付费党”的对立面。最近理想汽车创始人李想在采访中就表示，自动驾驶都是标配，不额外向客户收取费用。“我们认为自动驾驶是智能电动车的最底层的操作系统。”</p><p><b>卖硬件不赚钱，靠卖软件赚钱？</b>这个移动互联网时代被喊烂的口号，如今悄然在汽车圈流行。</p><p>一、销量上不去，都是空话</p><p>先抛出一个观点：<b>现阶段，在销量没有上去的时候，就开始谈新的商业模式，肯定有割韭菜的嫌疑。</b></p><p>据财报显示，2021年第一季度，蔚来营收79.82亿元；理想汽车营收35.75亿元；小鹏汽车营收29.51亿元。其中，蔚来的汽车销售额为74.058亿元人民币，占总营收的92%；理想汽车的汽车销售额为34.6亿元，占总营收的96.7%；小鹏汽车的汽车销售额为28.10亿元，占总营收的95%。</p><p><b>这意味着，九成的收入依旧来自于卖车。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ff077b80b8bd9f26f8c32ba2bd4ad8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>从销量上，“造车三宝”在一季度形成了蔚来、小鹏、理想的排名序列。其中，蔚来共交付20,060辆新车，同比增长422.7%，环比增长15.6%。小鹏汽车交付量达到了13,340辆，环比增长近3%，成功反超理想汽车。而理想汽车共交付了12,579辆理想ONE，虽同比增长334.4%，但环比减少了超13%。</p><p>著名经济学家宋清辉认为，销量规模不足是三家新势力造车企业实现盈利的最大掣肘。国信证券发布的研报则认为，蔚来、小鹏、理想要想实现盈利，销量规模分别需要达到18万辆、6万辆、12万辆。</p><p>自交付以来截至2021年4月，蔚来ES8、ES6、EC6三款车型的累计交付量约10.28万辆；一款车打天下的理想ONE累计交付量约为5.17万辆；小鹏P7和G3两款车型的累计交付量约5.87万辆，均未达到上述研报中的销量规模。</p><p>所以，亏损也属于正常表现。今年一季度，理想汽车净亏损为3.6亿元，从去年四季度的季度盈利状态，跌回了亏损状态。可以看到，营销和销售渠道的投入加大，但环比销量却减少，直接就把理想拉回到盈亏线以下。</p><p>同期蔚来、小鹏也仍在从亏损境地往盈利线爬。一季度，蔚来的净亏损为4.510亿元，同比下降73.3%，环比下降67.5%。而小鹏汽车的净亏损则为7.866亿元，相比上季度亏损幅度有所收窄。</p><p><b>能不能赚钱，还有一个关键数据是毛利率。</b></p><p>一季度，理想汽车的综合毛利率为17.3%，整车毛利率为16.9%，相比去年四季度的17.1%有所下降，原因是推出的促销活动导致平均单车收入下降。</p><p><b>比较有趣的是小鹏和蔚来。</b></p><p>一季度，小鹏汽车的综合毛利率11.2%，整车毛利率为10.1%，去年是-5.3%，上个季度是6.8%，上涨的原因除了材料成本降低，小鹏汽车自动驾驶XPILOT软件付费业务的销售收入计入，推动了毛利率的增长。</p><p>同样的，蔚来的综合毛利率为19.5%，整车毛利率竟然高达21.2%。蔚来方面表示，毛利增长主要得益于100度电池和NIO Pilot选装率的增加。100度电池包的毛利贡献在5000元左右，NIO Pilot在8000元左右。目前，100度电池包一季度的选装率在25%。</p><p>实际上，在体量相差不大、硬件采购成本没有太大出入的情况下，决定整车销售毛利率的关键因素就落在了软件订阅服务这一‘增值’部分。我们可以看到，<b>蔚来、小鹏都在尝试“软件付费模式”的新路子，并且效果还不错。</b></p><p>二、硬件交朋友，软件割韭菜</p><p>据安信证券预计，特斯拉通过FSD付费模式，带来的累计现金收入达到12.6亿美元。预计在2030年，订阅服务收入更有望每年逾160亿美元。</p><p>特斯拉“钱途无量”的收费项目分为三类：<b>自动驾驶软件包</b>、<b>解锁特定功能</b>、<b>娱乐系统</b>。</p><blockquote>1、FSD(Full Self-Driving)完全自动驾驶选装包。包括自动辅助导航驾驶、智能召唤等在内的高级自动驾驶功能。去年7月，其价格已经上涨至8000美元(国内64000元）。不久前，特斯拉还推出EAP增强辅助驾驶功能包，价格便宜一半。包含了绝大部分FSD的功能，但不含未来可能实现的自动驾驶功能，简单来说就是：FSD=EAP+PPT。2、OTA 付费升级。典型案例就是“Acceleration Boost”加速性能升级包。Model 3 车主只要付费3000美元（国内14100元），即可将汽车的百公里加速性能从4.6s提升到4.1s。还有升级续航，比如早期Model S 60可以付费升级至Model S 75同等的续航里程。但其实这是“锁电”，后期付费再给你远程解锁电量。3、高级车联网功能。特斯拉从2019 年开始，首度开启车联网高级连接服务收费(9.9 美元/月)，车主支付了服务费后即可使用实时路况、卡拉 OK、流媒体等高级车联网功能。</blockquote><p>实际上，特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力，短期主要看<b>销量</b>、<b>激活率</b>、<b>单价</b>三大变量，长期看商业模式变化。</p><p>销量方面，财报数据显示，特斯拉2021年第一季度共交付18.48万辆新车，超过此前华尔街普遍预测的17.3万辆，销售同比增长109%。这个数字，远超同期蔚来的2万台、小鹏的1.3万台、理想的1.26台。</p><p>激活率方面，德意志银行在2020年出具的报告《Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings》中预测，特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在25%-30%，并且主要集中在美国市场。虽然官方没有公布中国市场的激活率，但理想汽车创始人李想却给出了“不到2%的用户选装FSD”的评论。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cd772716431e15350e6221c9297bb6\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>单价方面，特斯拉目前的FSD选购价格是最高的，达到了6.4万元。蔚来的NIO Pilot全配包选装价为3.9万元，小鹏汽车XPILOT需要2万元选配。</p><p>目前，埃隆·马斯克正在积极推动FSD从一次性前装收费的模式，转变成订阅服务持续收费的模式。据外媒报道，特斯拉有望在年底前推出FSD订阅服务，价格约为每月100美元。</p><p>一旦完成软件订阅服务的商业模式转换，每辆激活FSD的销售车辆都有望为特斯拉贡献持续的现金流。</p><p>无独有偶，在2020年四季度财报电话会上，李斌对蔚来自动驾驶系统按月开通、按月付费的服务订阅模式的商业前景进行了解读：“简单来讲，我认为AD as a Service(ADaaS)方式来收费会比现在的Take rate（转换率）更高，这使得一辆车在全生命周期都有收入的可能，对用户也更友好。”</p><p>同样的，在今年一季报报中，小鹏汽车方面也表示，“XPILOT软件货币化将成为经常性收入，成为车辆销售收入的一部分”。据财报数据显示，通过XPILOT3.5，小鹏汽车已经获得8000万元的收入。</p><p><b>从一次性付费转变到订阅式，才是健康的商业模式，对用户更是如此。</b></p><p>“自动驾驶服务按需订阅比较适合，一旦自动驾驶普及、成为标配，也会推出其他的付费模式，比如流量费、车内体验费如看电影、广告费等。”威马汽车集团战略运营副总裁梅松林分析表示。</p><p>举个例子，蔚来的电池租用服务，用户仅需按月支付电池租用服务费，无需在购车时一次性买断昂贵的电池包。你是愿意付7万买断一块电池，还是每月980租一个电池，想必大家自己心里都有一杆秤。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b6d8846185a8931af33ab3c60a66b6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>而且，当你只需要在城市通勤时，就可以选择价格更便宜、续航更短的70kWh电池包，每月只要支付980元。当你有需求跑长途时，可额外再付880元/月，临时升级100kWh的电池包，不需要时再换回来。俗称按需购买。</p><p><b>但是，相比一次买断，订阅制需要用户花更多的钱。</b></p><p>比如像蔚来的电池包灵活升级，直接选择100kWh电池包是1480/月，如果是70kWh，短期灵活升级，是在980元的基础上，额外再付880元升级，相当于1860元/月，竟然比直接选100kWh还要贵上380元每月。</p><p>小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏在财报电话会中表示：“按服务和按月来付费的话，实际上从总量来看比一次性买断价格会更高。”同时，他还表示，小鹏汽车正在考虑增加按其他形式付费的服务方式。</p><p><b>本质上，除了付费方式变换，最重要的还是解决用户痛点。</b></p><p>就比如特斯拉的百公里加速，花费1万多，可以从4.6秒提升4.1秒，对于大部分用户来说是毫无意义的。然而，花费2400元解锁后排座椅加热，对于北方的车主来说，这是刚需。包括像蔚来、理想汽车都会有相应的付费升级车辆相关硬件的案例，提供与否完全取决于用户。</p><p>像蔚来的电池租用服务，就是解决了用户痛点。一方面，将昂贵的电池从车价中剥离，降低购车成本。另一方面，车辆不会因电池寿命减少而降低保值率。</p><p>但话说回来，我们也可以看到，虽然特斯拉的体量够大，但在高额的单价面前，激活率可能并不理想。你已经花费25万购买一台国产特斯拉，还要再花6万4、占总车价25%的价格去购买一个软件包，确实需要三思而后行。</p><p>三、付费模式，割得太早？</p><p><b>软件付费的收入，至少在手机行业里还是前景可观的。</b></p><p>此前有数据显示，苹果App Store 2018年收入约为485亿美元，2019年收入约为500亿美元，而2020年达到了640亿美元。App Store业务已成为苹果的一个重要增长领域。该部门的业绩被计入到苹果的服务部门。在截至9月底的2020财年，苹果服务部门的销售额为537亿美元。</p><p>师从苹果的小米，除了卖手机以外，也在尝试更多的营收来源。比如小米以广告、游戏、金融科技、其他增值服务为主的互联网服务业务稳步发展，在一季度实现收入65.70亿元，同比增长11.4%，毛利率甚至达到了72.4%。</p><p>小米在移动互联网时代的赚钱逻辑是：卖硬件不赚钱，规模上来以后，靠互联网业务赚钱。本质上，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏正式沿用这套方法，<b>但也有车企会将小米模式在汽车上“过度尝试”</b>。</p><p>不久前，福特在美国申请了一项技术专利，将户外的广告宣传内容强制显示于汽车中控屏幕——这项技术利用内置于汽车的相机镜头，对户外广告板进行监控，再通过图像识别功能将广告内容显示于汽车屏幕上。福特表示系统甚至可以分析广告内容，提供网址链接或电话号码等资料。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d8f965813c6d002b7af27fdf2635f6\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>在国内，也有网友表示，自己购买的哈弗H6，在启动之后，中控屏幕会出现广告。这似乎有点不寒而栗，未来的汽车是否也会像小米电视、乐视电视一样，开机先看15秒的广告，付费99每月购买VIP会员才可以跳过广告？</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500d1df574949f7ca053dfe5f2ae6863\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>所以“反付费党”李想，则认为现在谈软件付费还为时尚早：“今天还是没有办法直接拿电脑或者是拿手机的商业模式套过来。最开始的时候大家认为手机的商业模式跟电脑是一样的，后来发现完全不同。”</p><p>对比发现，以前PC时代、移动互联网时代的入口级产品都具有如下特征：</p><blockquote>1、数量：大量的用户使用基础；2、内容：大量的用户需求内容；3、技术：新兴的信息传播技术；4、时间：大量的用户使用时间；</blockquote><p>这些特征放在如今的智能电动汽车上，几乎完美融合。所以，决策者拍脑子就能得出结论：<b>汽车，是下一个时代的流量入口，我们先占了坑再说。</b></p><p>但是，你会发现一些有趣的现象，无论是以前电脑软件，还是现在是手机软件。从以前纯洁的工具App，逐渐变成大型内容平台，最后再变成内容丰富的广告平台。中国虽然诞生了大批的软件公司，但最后谈到盈利模式的时候，他们嘴里永远逃不开三个字：<b>卖广告</b>。</p><p><b>只求求大厂们，放过汽车吧，我想好好开车。</b></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>卖车亏钱，卖软件就赚钱？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n卖车亏钱，卖软件就赚钱？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-28 23:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电速度。部分车主在进行升级软件之后，发现续航里程出现明显下滑情况。对软件下手，特斯拉是一把好手。据Electrek报道，截至2019年，特斯拉通过出售全自动驾驶FSD软件包获得的收入已经超过了10亿美元...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155283133","content_text":"最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电速度。部分车主在进行升级软件之后，发现续航里程出现明显下滑情况。对软件下手，特斯拉是一把好手。据Electrek报道，截至2019年，特斯拉通过出售全自动驾驶FSD软件包获得的收入已经超过了10亿美元。不止是自动驾驶功能，包括加速性能、联网服务，特斯拉都从车主身上赚到了钱。可能是英雄所见略同。软件付费的模式也被国内造车新势力所推崇。尤其是在自动辅助驾驶功能上，小鹏汽车的XPILOT、蔚来的NIO Pilot都需要用户付费数万元进行选购。付费选装本身没有争议，但是，传统车企在你没有选配的情况下几乎不会预装硬件。而包括特斯拉在内的很多智能电动汽车，会先预装大量硬件，芯片、传感器等等。购车价格里，似乎又隐形地包含了这些硬件配置的价格。比如蔚来ET7全系标配激光雷达，但软件大概率是额外付费才能用——付费模式，看来就像是毛利率极高的“收割模式”。然而，造车新势力中也有“异类”——理想汽车就旗帜鲜明的站在了“付费党”的对立面。最近理想汽车创始人李想在采访中就表示，自动驾驶都是标配，不额外向客户收取费用。“我们认为自动驾驶是智能电动车的最底层的操作系统。”卖硬件不赚钱，靠卖软件赚钱？这个移动互联网时代被喊烂的口号，如今悄然在汽车圈流行。一、销量上不去，都是空话先抛出一个观点：现阶段，在销量没有上去的时候，就开始谈新的商业模式，肯定有割韭菜的嫌疑。据财报显示，2021年第一季度，蔚来营收79.82亿元；理想汽车营收35.75亿元；小鹏汽车营收29.51亿元。其中，蔚来的汽车销售额为74.058亿元人民币，占总营收的92%；理想汽车的汽车销售额为34.6亿元，占总营收的96.7%；小鹏汽车的汽车销售额为28.10亿元，占总营收的95%。这意味着，九成的收入依旧来自于卖车。从销量上，“造车三宝”在一季度形成了蔚来、小鹏、理想的排名序列。其中，蔚来共交付20,060辆新车，同比增长422.7%，环比增长15.6%。小鹏汽车交付量达到了13,340辆，环比增长近3%，成功反超理想汽车。而理想汽车共交付了12,579辆理想ONE，虽同比增长334.4%，但环比减少了超13%。著名经济学家宋清辉认为，销量规模不足是三家新势力造车企业实现盈利的最大掣肘。国信证券发布的研报则认为，蔚来、小鹏、理想要想实现盈利，销量规模分别需要达到18万辆、6万辆、12万辆。自交付以来截至2021年4月，蔚来ES8、ES6、EC6三款车型的累计交付量约10.28万辆；一款车打天下的理想ONE累计交付量约为5.17万辆；小鹏P7和G3两款车型的累计交付量约5.87万辆，均未达到上述研报中的销量规模。所以，亏损也属于正常表现。今年一季度，理想汽车净亏损为3.6亿元，从去年四季度的季度盈利状态，跌回了亏损状态。可以看到，营销和销售渠道的投入加大，但环比销量却减少，直接就把理想拉回到盈亏线以下。同期蔚来、小鹏也仍在从亏损境地往盈利线爬。一季度，蔚来的净亏损为4.510亿元，同比下降73.3%，环比下降67.5%。而小鹏汽车的净亏损则为7.866亿元，相比上季度亏损幅度有所收窄。能不能赚钱，还有一个关键数据是毛利率。一季度，理想汽车的综合毛利率为17.3%，整车毛利率为16.9%，相比去年四季度的17.1%有所下降，原因是推出的促销活动导致平均单车收入下降。比较有趣的是小鹏和蔚来。一季度，小鹏汽车的综合毛利率11.2%，整车毛利率为10.1%，去年是-5.3%，上个季度是6.8%，上涨的原因除了材料成本降低，小鹏汽车自动驾驶XPILOT软件付费业务的销售收入计入，推动了毛利率的增长。同样的，蔚来的综合毛利率为19.5%，整车毛利率竟然高达21.2%。蔚来方面表示，毛利增长主要得益于100度电池和NIO Pilot选装率的增加。100度电池包的毛利贡献在5000元左右，NIO Pilot在8000元左右。目前，100度电池包一季度的选装率在25%。实际上，在体量相差不大、硬件采购成本没有太大出入的情况下，决定整车销售毛利率的关键因素就落在了软件订阅服务这一‘增值’部分。我们可以看到，蔚来、小鹏都在尝试“软件付费模式”的新路子，并且效果还不错。二、硬件交朋友，软件割韭菜据安信证券预计，特斯拉通过FSD付费模式，带来的累计现金收入达到12.6亿美元。预计在2030年，订阅服务收入更有望每年逾160亿美元。特斯拉“钱途无量”的收费项目分为三类：自动驾驶软件包、解锁特定功能、娱乐系统。1、FSD(Full Self-Driving)完全自动驾驶选装包。包括自动辅助导航驾驶、智能召唤等在内的高级自动驾驶功能。去年7月，其价格已经上涨至8000美元(国内64000元）。不久前，特斯拉还推出EAP增强辅助驾驶功能包，价格便宜一半。包含了绝大部分FSD的功能，但不含未来可能实现的自动驾驶功能，简单来说就是：FSD=EAP+PPT。2、OTA 付费升级。典型案例就是“Acceleration Boost”加速性能升级包。Model 3 车主只要付费3000美元（国内14100元），即可将汽车的百公里加速性能从4.6s提升到4.1s。还有升级续航，比如早期Model S 60可以付费升级至Model S 75同等的续航里程。但其实这是“锁电”，后期付费再给你远程解锁电量。3、高级车联网功能。特斯拉从2019 年开始，首度开启车联网高级连接服务收费(9.9 美元/月)，车主支付了服务费后即可使用实时路况、卡拉 OK、流媒体等高级车联网功能。实际上，特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力，短期主要看销量、激活率、单价三大变量，长期看商业模式变化。销量方面，财报数据显示，特斯拉2021年第一季度共交付18.48万辆新车，超过此前华尔街普遍预测的17.3万辆，销售同比增长109%。这个数字，远超同期蔚来的2万台、小鹏的1.3万台、理想的1.26台。激活率方面，德意志银行在2020年出具的报告《Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings》中预测，特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在25%-30%，并且主要集中在美国市场。虽然官方没有公布中国市场的激活率，但理想汽车创始人李想却给出了“不到2%的用户选装FSD”的评论。单价方面，特斯拉目前的FSD选购价格是最高的，达到了6.4万元。蔚来的NIO Pilot全配包选装价为3.9万元，小鹏汽车XPILOT需要2万元选配。目前，埃隆·马斯克正在积极推动FSD从一次性前装收费的模式，转变成订阅服务持续收费的模式。据外媒报道，特斯拉有望在年底前推出FSD订阅服务，价格约为每月100美元。一旦完成软件订阅服务的商业模式转换，每辆激活FSD的销售车辆都有望为特斯拉贡献持续的现金流。无独有偶，在2020年四季度财报电话会上，李斌对蔚来自动驾驶系统按月开通、按月付费的服务订阅模式的商业前景进行了解读：“简单来讲，我认为AD as a Service(ADaaS)方式来收费会比现在的Take rate（转换率）更高，这使得一辆车在全生命周期都有收入的可能，对用户也更友好。”同样的，在今年一季报报中，小鹏汽车方面也表示，“XPILOT软件货币化将成为经常性收入，成为车辆销售收入的一部分”。据财报数据显示，通过XPILOT3.5，小鹏汽车已经获得8000万元的收入。从一次性付费转变到订阅式，才是健康的商业模式，对用户更是如此。“自动驾驶服务按需订阅比较适合，一旦自动驾驶普及、成为标配，也会推出其他的付费模式，比如流量费、车内体验费如看电影、广告费等。”威马汽车集团战略运营副总裁梅松林分析表示。举个例子，蔚来的电池租用服务，用户仅需按月支付电池租用服务费，无需在购车时一次性买断昂贵的电池包。你是愿意付7万买断一块电池，还是每月980租一个电池，想必大家自己心里都有一杆秤。而且，当你只需要在城市通勤时，就可以选择价格更便宜、续航更短的70kWh电池包，每月只要支付980元。当你有需求跑长途时，可额外再付880元/月，临时升级100kWh的电池包，不需要时再换回来。俗称按需购买。但是，相比一次买断，订阅制需要用户花更多的钱。比如像蔚来的电池包灵活升级，直接选择100kWh电池包是1480/月，如果是70kWh，短期灵活升级，是在980元的基础上，额外再付880元升级，相当于1860元/月，竟然比直接选100kWh还要贵上380元每月。小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏在财报电话会中表示：“按服务和按月来付费的话，实际上从总量来看比一次性买断价格会更高。”同时，他还表示，小鹏汽车正在考虑增加按其他形式付费的服务方式。本质上，除了付费方式变换，最重要的还是解决用户痛点。就比如特斯拉的百公里加速，花费1万多，可以从4.6秒提升4.1秒，对于大部分用户来说是毫无意义的。然而，花费2400元解锁后排座椅加热，对于北方的车主来说，这是刚需。包括像蔚来、理想汽车都会有相应的付费升级车辆相关硬件的案例，提供与否完全取决于用户。像蔚来的电池租用服务，就是解决了用户痛点。一方面，将昂贵的电池从车价中剥离，降低购车成本。另一方面，车辆不会因电池寿命减少而降低保值率。但话说回来，我们也可以看到，虽然特斯拉的体量够大，但在高额的单价面前，激活率可能并不理想。你已经花费25万购买一台国产特斯拉，还要再花6万4、占总车价25%的价格去购买一个软件包，确实需要三思而后行。三、付费模式，割得太早？软件付费的收入，至少在手机行业里还是前景可观的。此前有数据显示，苹果App Store 2018年收入约为485亿美元，2019年收入约为500亿美元，而2020年达到了640亿美元。App Store业务已成为苹果的一个重要增长领域。该部门的业绩被计入到苹果的服务部门。在截至9月底的2020财年，苹果服务部门的销售额为537亿美元。师从苹果的小米，除了卖手机以外，也在尝试更多的营收来源。比如小米以广告、游戏、金融科技、其他增值服务为主的互联网服务业务稳步发展，在一季度实现收入65.70亿元，同比增长11.4%，毛利率甚至达到了72.4%。小米在移动互联网时代的赚钱逻辑是：卖硬件不赚钱，规模上来以后，靠互联网业务赚钱。本质上，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏正式沿用这套方法，但也有车企会将小米模式在汽车上“过度尝试”。不久前，福特在美国申请了一项技术专利，将户外的广告宣传内容强制显示于汽车中控屏幕——这项技术利用内置于汽车的相机镜头，对户外广告板进行监控，再通过图像识别功能将广告内容显示于汽车屏幕上。福特表示系统甚至可以分析广告内容，提供网址链接或电话号码等资料。在国内，也有网友表示，自己购买的哈弗H6，在启动之后，中控屏幕会出现广告。这似乎有点不寒而栗，未来的汽车是否也会像小米电视、乐视电视一样，开机先看15秒的广告，付费99每月购买VIP会员才可以跳过广告？所以“反付费党”李想，则认为现在谈软件付费还为时尚早：“今天还是没有办法直接拿电脑或者是拿手机的商业模式套过来。最开始的时候大家认为手机的商业模式跟电脑是一样的，后来发现完全不同。”对比发现，以前PC时代、移动互联网时代的入口级产品都具有如下特征：1、数量：大量的用户使用基础；2、内容：大量的用户需求内容；3、技术：新兴的信息传播技术；4、时间：大量的用户使用时间；这些特征放在如今的智能电动汽车上，几乎完美融合。所以，决策者拍脑子就能得出结论：汽车，是下一个时代的流量入口，我们先占了坑再说。但是，你会发现一些有趣的现象，无论是以前电脑软件，还是现在是手机软件。从以前纯洁的工具App，逐渐变成大型内容平台，最后再变成内容丰富的广告平台。中国虽然诞生了大批的软件公司，但最后谈到盈利模式的时候，他们嘴里永远逃不开三个字：卖广告。只求求大厂们，放过汽车吧，我想好好开车。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981920763,"gmtCreate":1666388211252,"gmtModify":1676537749334,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"月亮湾湾照狮城","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65141f7fef1fccd27684150e1416319","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585015704454479","authorIdStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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