月亮湾湾照狮城 personal page - To The Moon

月亮湾湾照狮城

月亮湾湾照狮城

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月亮湾湾照狮城

2021-05-29

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Losing money selling cars, making money selling software?

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-22

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-07

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-09-26

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-09-24

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-22

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-17

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-06

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-10-03

$Microsoft(MSFT)$Bullish

月亮湾湾照狮城

2022-11-17

$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Bullish

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Bullish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9969362893","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":134264986,"gmtCreate":1622243659745,"gmtModify":1704182027171,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"月亮湾湾照狮城","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65141f7fef1fccd27684150e1416319","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585015704454479","idStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Test","listText":"Test","text":"Test","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/134264986","repostId":"1155283133","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155283133","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622216617,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155283133?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-28 23:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Losing money selling cars, making money selling software?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155283133","media":"虎嗅","summary":"最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电","content":"<p>Recently, Tesla was found guilty by a Norwegian court for slowing down charging speed and battery capacity during software updates, and may have to pay approximately 96,400 RMB (about US$16,000) in fines to car owners as a result.</p><p>Back in 2019, Tesla limited the driving range and charging speed of some vehicles through software upgrades. Some car owners have noticed a significant decline in driving range after upgrading their software.</p><p><b>Tesla is a master of software.</b>According to Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla had generated over $1 billion in revenue from selling Full Self-Driving FSD software packages. Tesla has made money from car owners in not only its autonomous driving features, but also its acceleration performance and connectivity services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps great minds think alike. The software-based payment model is also being promoted by emerging domestic car manufacturers. Especially in terms of autonomous driving assistance functions, XPeng Motors' XPILOT and NIO' NIO Pilot require users to pay tens of thousands of yuan to purchase.</p><p>There is no controversy about the paid options themselves, but traditional automakers almost never pre-install hardware unless you have optional features. And including<b>Many smart electric vehicles, including Tesla, are pre-installed with a large amount of hardware, such as chips and sensors.</b></p><p>The price of these hardware configurations seems to be implicitly included in the car purchase price. For example, the Nio ET7 comes standard with LiDAR across the entire series, but the software is likely to require an additional fee to use—the paid model seems like a \"harvesting model\" with extremely high gross profit margins.</p><p>However, there are also \"outliers\" among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers - Li Auto has clearly stood against the \"paying party\". In a recent interview, Li Auto founder Li Xiang stated that autonomous driving is standard equipment and no additional fees are charged to customers. \"We believe that autonomous driving is the most fundamental operating system for intelligent electric vehicles.\"</p><p><b>If you don't make money selling hardware, do you make money selling software?</b>This slogan, often shouted in the mobile internet era, is now quietly becoming popular in the automotive industry.</p><p>1. If sales don't increase, it's all just empty talk.</p><p>First, let me make a point:<b>At this stage, starting to talk about new business models when sales haven't increased is definitely suspected of exploiting retail investors.</b></p><p>According to financial reports, Nio achieved revenue of 7.982 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2021; Li Auto revenue was 3.575 billion yuan; XPeng Motors' revenue was 2.951 billion yuan. Among them, automobile sales in Nio amounted to 7.4058 billion yuan, accounting for 92% of total revenue; Li Auto' automobile sales reached 3.46 billion yuan, accounting for 96.7% of total revenue; XPeng Automobile's automobile sales amounted to 2.81 billion yuan, accounting for 95% of its total revenue.</p><p><b>This means that 90% of the income still comes from selling cars.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ff077b80b8bd9f26f8c32ba2bd4ad8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sales volume, the \"three treasures of car manufacturing\" formed a ranking sequence of Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto in the first quarter. Among them, Nio delivered a total of 20,060 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 422.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. XPeng delivered 13,340 vehicles, a nearly 3% increase month-on-month, successfully surpassing Li Auto. Li Auto delivered a total of 12,579 Li Auto ONEs, a year-on-year increase of 334.4%, but a month-on-month decrease of over 13%.</p><p>Renowned economist Song Qinghui believes that insufficient sales volume is the biggest obstacle to the profitability of the three new energy vehicle manufacturers. A research report released by Guoxin Securities suggests that Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto need to reach sales volumes of 180,000, 60,000, and 120,000 vehicles respectively in order to achieve profitability.</p><p>Since delivery, as of April 2021, Nio has delivered approximately 102,800 vehicles of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 models. The Li Auto ONE, a car that dominates the market, has achieved a cumulative delivery volume of approximately 51,700 units. The cumulative deliveries of the XPeng P7 and G3 models totaled approximately 58,700 units, neither of which reached the sales volume mentioned in the aforementioned research report.</p><p>Therefore, losses are normal. In the first quarter of this year, Li Auto suffered a net loss of 360 million yuan, falling back to a loss-making state from a quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of last year. As can be seen, while investment in marketing and sales channels has increased, sales volume has decreased month-on-month, directly bringing Li Auto back below the break-even point.</p><p>During the same period, Nio and XPeng were still climbing from losses to profitability. In the first quarter, Nio reported a net loss of 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 67.5%. XPeng Motors reported a net loss of 786.6 million yuan, a narrower loss compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Another key metric for making money is gross profit margin.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, Li Auto' overall gross profit margin was 17.3%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 16.9%, down from 17.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a decrease in average revenue per vehicle caused by promotional activities.</p><p><b>The more interesting ones are XPeng and Nio.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, XPeng Motors' overall gross profit margin was 11.2%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 10.1%, compared to -5.3% last year and 6.8% in the previous quarter. The increase was due not only to lower material costs, but also to the inclusion of sales revenue from XPeng Motors' XPILOT autonomous driving software paid business, which drove the growth in gross profit margin.</p><p>Similarly, Nio' overall gross profit margin is 19.5%, while its vehicle gross profit margin is as high as 21.2%. NIO stated that the gross profit growth was mainly due to the increased availability of 100 kWh batteries and NIO Pilot options. The gross profit contribution of 100 kWh battery packs is around 5,000 yuan, while that of NIO Pilot is around 8,000 yuan. Currently, the optional rate for 100-kWh battery packs in the first quarter is 25%.</p><p>In fact, with similar sizes and similar hardware procurement costs, the key factor determining the gross profit margin of vehicle sales lies in the 'value-added' part of software subscription services. We can see that,<b>Nio and XPeng are both trying new approaches to \"software payment models,\" and the results are quite good.</b></p><p>II. Hardware makes friends, software exploits retail investors.</p><p>According to Anxin Securities, Tesla's cumulative cash revenue through the FSD payment model will reach $1.26 billion. Subscription service revenue is projected to exceed $16 billion annually by 2030.</p><p>Tesla's \"boundless potential\" fees can be divided into three categories:<b>autonomous driving software package</b>、<b>Unlock specific features</b>、<b>entertainment system</b>。</p><p>1. FSD (Full Self-Driving) optional package. Advanced autonomous driving functions, including automatic navigation assistance and intelligent summoning. Last July, its price had risen to $8,000 (64,000 yuan in China). Not long ago, Tesla also launched the Enhanced Driver Assistance (EAP) package, half the price. It includes most of the FSD functions, but excludes potential future autonomous driving features; simply put, FSD = EAP + PPT. 2. OTA paid upgrades. A typical example is the \"Acceleration Boost\" Acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners can improve their car's 0-100 km/h acceleration time from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds for just $3,000 (14,100 yuan in China). There are also upgraded range; for example, the early Model S 60 could be upgraded to the same range as the Model S 75 for a fee. But in reality, this is \"locking the battery,\" and the battery will be remotely unlocked for you after you pay later. 3. Advanced vehicle networking functions. Starting in 2019, Tesla introduced a premium connectivity service fee ($9.90/month) for the first time. After paying the service fee, owners can use advanced connectivity features such as real-time road conditions, karaoke, and streaming media. In reality, the commercial potential of Tesla's software business mainly depends on...<b>Sales volume</b>、<b>activation rate</b>、<b>Unit price</b>Three major variables, looking at changes in business models in the long run.</p><p>In terms of sales, financial reports show that Tesla delivered 184,800 new vehicles in the first quarter of 2021, exceeding the 173,000 vehicles previously predicted by Wall Street, representing a year-on-year sales increase of 109%. This number far exceeds the 20,000 units in Nio, 13,000 units in XPeng, and 126 units in Li Auto during the same period.</p><p>Regarding activation rates, Deutsche Bank predicted in its 2020 report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" that Tesla's overall FSD activation rate would be around 25%-30%, mainly concentrated in the US market. Although the official activation rate in the Chinese market has not been released, Li Auto founder Li Xiang commented that \"less than 2% of users have FSD as an option\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cd772716431e15350e6221c9297bb6\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of unit price, Tesla's FSD currently has the highest purchase price, reaching 64,000 yuan. The NIO NIO Pilot full package is priced at 39,000 yuan as an option, while the XPeng XPILOT requires 20,000 yuan as an option.</p><p>Currently, Elon Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation fee model to a subscription service fee model. According to foreign media reports, Tesla is expected to launch an FSD subscription service by the end of the year, priced at approximately $100 per month.</p><p>Once the business model transformation for software subscription services is completed, every vehicle sold that activates FSD is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p>Coincidentally, during the Q4 2020 earnings call, Li Bin interpreted the business prospects of NIO's autonomous driving system Service subscription model, which is activated monthly and paid monthly: \"Simply put, I think that charging in the AD as a Service (ADaaS) model will have a higher Take rate than the current Take rate, which makes it possible for a car to generate revenue throughout its entire lifecycle and is also more user-friendly.\"</p><p>Similarly, in its first-quarter report this year, XPeng Motor Company also stated that \"the monetization of XPILOT software will become recurring revenue and part of vehicle sales revenue.\" According to financial reports, XPeng has generated 80 million yuan in revenue through XPilot 3.5.</p><p><b>Shifting from one-time payment to subscription-based is a healthy business model, especially for users.</b></p><p>\"On-demand subscriptions for autonomous driving services are more suitable. Once autonomous driving becomes widespread and standard, other paid models will be launched, such as data fees, in-car experience fees such as watching movies, and advertising fees,\" said Mei Songlin, Vice President of Strategic Operations at WM Motor Group.</p><p>For example, with battery rental services in Nio, users only need to pay a monthly battery rental fee, without having to buy an expensive battery pack at once when purchasing a car. Whether you're willing to pay 70,000 yuan to buy out a battery, or rent a battery for 980 yuan a month, everyone probably has their own opinion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b6d8846185a8931af33ab3c60a66b6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, when you only need to commute in the city, you can choose a cheaper and shorter-lived 70kWh battery pack for only 980 yuan per month. When you need to travel long distances, you can pay an additional 880 yuan/month to temporarily upgrade to a 100kWh battery pack, which you can replace when you no longer need it. Commonly known as buying on demand.</p><p><b>However, compared to a buyout, a subscription system requires users to spend more money.</b></p><p>For example, in Nio, the flexible upgrade of battery packs costs 1480 yuan/month if you directly choose a 100kWh battery pack. If you choose a 70kWh battery pack, the short-term flexible upgrade costs an additional 880 yuan on top of the 980 yuan, which is equivalent to 1860 yuan/month. This is 380 yuan more expensive per month than choosing a 100kWh battery pack directly.</p><p>During the earnings call, He Xiaopeng, founder of XPeng Motor Company, stated, \"Paying by service or monthly is actually higher in terms of total volume than a one-time buyout.\" He also indicated that XPeng Motor Company is considering adding other forms of payment for services.</p><p><b>Essentially, besides changing payment methods, the most important thing is to solve user pain points.</b></p><p>For example, Tesla's 0-100 km/h acceleration costs over 10,000 yuan to improve from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds, which is meaningless to most users. However, spending 2,400 yuan to unlock the rear seat heating is a necessity for car owners in northern China. Cities like Nio and Li Auto have examples of paid upgrades to vehicle-related hardware, but whether or not they are provided depends entirely on the user.</p><p>Battery rental services like those in Nio solve user pain points. On the one hand, expensive batteries are removed from the car price to reduce the cost of purchasing a car. On the other hand, the vehicle's resale value will not decrease due to reduced battery life.</p><p>However, we can also see that although Tesla is large enough, its activation rate may not be ideal given its high unit price. You've already spent 250,000 yuan to buy a domestically produced Tesla, and you still need to spend 64,000 yuan, or 25% of the total car price, to buy a software package. You really need to think twice before you act.</p><p>III. Paid model, is it too early to cut?</p><p><b>The revenue from paid software still has a promising future, at least in the mobile phone industry.</b></p><p>Previous data showed that Apple's App Store revenue was approximately $48.5 billion in 2018, approximately $50 billion in 2019, and reached $64 billion in 2020. The App Store business has become an important growth area for Apple. The department's performance is included in Apple's services division. In fiscal year 2020, which ended at the end of September, Apple's services division generated $53.7 billion in sales.</p><p>Xiaomi, which learned from Apple, is also trying to find more revenue sources in addition to selling mobile phones. For example, Xiaomi's internet services business, which mainly focuses on advertising, games, fintech, and other value-added services, has developed steadily. In the first quarter, it achieved revenue of 6.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and its gross profit margin even reached 72.4%.</p><p>Xiaomi's profit-making logic in the mobile internet era is: selling hardware doesn't make money; once it grows in scale, it makes money through its internet business. Essentially, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng officially adopted this method.<b>However, some automakers will \"over-experiment\" with the Xiaomi model in cars.</b>。</p><p>Not long ago, Ford applied for a technology patent in the United States that forces outdoor advertising content to be displayed on the car's center control screen. This technology uses a camera lens built into the car to monitor outdoor billboards and then displays the advertising content on the car screen through image recognition. Ford says the system can even analyze advertising content and provide information such as website links or phone numbers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d8f965813c6d002b7af27fdf2635f6\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In China, some netizens have reported that advertisements appear on the center console screen after starting the Haval H6 they purchased. This seems a bit chilling. Will future cars be like Xiaomi TVs and LeEco TVs, starting with a 15-second ad and paying 99 yuan a month to purchase a VIP membership to skip the ads?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500d1df574949f7ca053dfe5f2ae6863\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, Li Xiang, an \"anti-payment advocate,\" believes that it is too early to talk about paid software: \"Today, it is still impossible to directly apply the business model of computers or mobile phones. At first, people thought that the business model of mobile phones was the same as that of computers, but later they found that they were completely different.\"</p><p>A comparison reveals that entry-level products from the previous PC and mobile internet eras all shared the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Quantity: A large user base; 2. Content: A large amount of user-needed content; 3. Technology: Emerging information dissemination technologies; 4. Time: A large amount of user time; These features blend almost perfectly into today's smart electric vehicles. Therefore, decision-makers can conclude on a whim:<b>Automobiles are the next generation of traffic entry points; let's seize the opportunity first.</b></p><p>However, you will find some interesting phenomena, whether it was computer software in the past or mobile software now. It gradually transformed from a pure tool App into a large content platform, and finally into a content-rich advertising platform. Although China has given birth to a large number of software companies, when it comes to profit models, they can never escape three words:<b>Selling advertising</b>。</p><p><b>I just beg the big manufacturers, please leave the cars alone. I want to drive properly.</b></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Losing money selling cars, making money selling software?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLosing money selling cars, making money selling software?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">虎嗅</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-28 23:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, Tesla was found guilty by a Norwegian court for slowing down charging speed and battery capacity during software updates, and may have to pay approximately 96,400 RMB (about US$16,000) in fines to car owners as a result.</p><p>Back in 2019, Tesla limited the driving range and charging speed of some vehicles through software upgrades. Some car owners have noticed a significant decline in driving range after upgrading their software.</p><p><b>Tesla is a master of software.</b>According to Electrek, as of 2019, Tesla had generated over $1 billion in revenue from selling Full Self-Driving FSD software packages. Tesla has made money from car owners in not only its autonomous driving features, but also its acceleration performance and connectivity services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Perhaps great minds think alike. The software-based payment model is also being promoted by emerging domestic car manufacturers. Especially in terms of autonomous driving assistance functions, XPeng Motors' XPILOT and NIO' NIO Pilot require users to pay tens of thousands of yuan to purchase.</p><p>There is no controversy about the paid options themselves, but traditional automakers almost never pre-install hardware unless you have optional features. And including<b>Many smart electric vehicles, including Tesla, are pre-installed with a large amount of hardware, such as chips and sensors.</b></p><p>The price of these hardware configurations seems to be implicitly included in the car purchase price. For example, the Nio ET7 comes standard with LiDAR across the entire series, but the software is likely to require an additional fee to use—the paid model seems like a \"harvesting model\" with extremely high gross profit margins.</p><p>However, there are also \"outliers\" among emerging electric vehicle manufacturers - Li Auto has clearly stood against the \"paying party\". In a recent interview, Li Auto founder Li Xiang stated that autonomous driving is standard equipment and no additional fees are charged to customers. \"We believe that autonomous driving is the most fundamental operating system for intelligent electric vehicles.\"</p><p><b>If you don't make money selling hardware, do you make money selling software?</b>This slogan, often shouted in the mobile internet era, is now quietly becoming popular in the automotive industry.</p><p>1. If sales don't increase, it's all just empty talk.</p><p>First, let me make a point:<b>At this stage, starting to talk about new business models when sales haven't increased is definitely suspected of exploiting retail investors.</b></p><p>According to financial reports, Nio achieved revenue of 7.982 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2021; Li Auto revenue was 3.575 billion yuan; XPeng Motors' revenue was 2.951 billion yuan. Among them, automobile sales in Nio amounted to 7.4058 billion yuan, accounting for 92% of total revenue; Li Auto' automobile sales reached 3.46 billion yuan, accounting for 96.7% of total revenue; XPeng Automobile's automobile sales amounted to 2.81 billion yuan, accounting for 95% of its total revenue.</p><p><b>This means that 90% of the income still comes from selling cars.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56ff077b80b8bd9f26f8c32ba2bd4ad8\" tg-width=\"848\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of sales volume, the \"three treasures of car manufacturing\" formed a ranking sequence of Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto in the first quarter. Among them, Nio delivered a total of 20,060 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 422.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6%. XPeng delivered 13,340 vehicles, a nearly 3% increase month-on-month, successfully surpassing Li Auto. Li Auto delivered a total of 12,579 Li Auto ONEs, a year-on-year increase of 334.4%, but a month-on-month decrease of over 13%.</p><p>Renowned economist Song Qinghui believes that insufficient sales volume is the biggest obstacle to the profitability of the three new energy vehicle manufacturers. A research report released by Guoxin Securities suggests that Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto need to reach sales volumes of 180,000, 60,000, and 120,000 vehicles respectively in order to achieve profitability.</p><p>Since delivery, as of April 2021, Nio has delivered approximately 102,800 vehicles of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 models. The Li Auto ONE, a car that dominates the market, has achieved a cumulative delivery volume of approximately 51,700 units. The cumulative deliveries of the XPeng P7 and G3 models totaled approximately 58,700 units, neither of which reached the sales volume mentioned in the aforementioned research report.</p><p>Therefore, losses are normal. In the first quarter of this year, Li Auto suffered a net loss of 360 million yuan, falling back to a loss-making state from a quarterly profit in the fourth quarter of last year. As can be seen, while investment in marketing and sales channels has increased, sales volume has decreased month-on-month, directly bringing Li Auto back below the break-even point.</p><p>During the same period, Nio and XPeng were still climbing from losses to profitability. In the first quarter, Nio reported a net loss of 451 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 73.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 67.5%. XPeng Motors reported a net loss of 786.6 million yuan, a narrower loss compared to the previous quarter.</p><p><b>Another key metric for making money is gross profit margin.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, Li Auto' overall gross profit margin was 17.3%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 16.9%, down from 17.1% in the fourth quarter of last year, due to a decrease in average revenue per vehicle caused by promotional activities.</p><p><b>The more interesting ones are XPeng and Nio.</b></p><p>In the first quarter, XPeng Motors' overall gross profit margin was 11.2%, and its vehicle gross profit margin was 10.1%, compared to -5.3% last year and 6.8% in the previous quarter. The increase was due not only to lower material costs, but also to the inclusion of sales revenue from XPeng Motors' XPILOT autonomous driving software paid business, which drove the growth in gross profit margin.</p><p>Similarly, Nio' overall gross profit margin is 19.5%, while its vehicle gross profit margin is as high as 21.2%. NIO stated that the gross profit growth was mainly due to the increased availability of 100 kWh batteries and NIO Pilot options. The gross profit contribution of 100 kWh battery packs is around 5,000 yuan, while that of NIO Pilot is around 8,000 yuan. Currently, the optional rate for 100-kWh battery packs in the first quarter is 25%.</p><p>In fact, with similar sizes and similar hardware procurement costs, the key factor determining the gross profit margin of vehicle sales lies in the 'value-added' part of software subscription services. We can see that,<b>Nio and XPeng are both trying new approaches to \"software payment models,\" and the results are quite good.</b></p><p>II. Hardware makes friends, software exploits retail investors.</p><p>According to Anxin Securities, Tesla's cumulative cash revenue through the FSD payment model will reach $1.26 billion. Subscription service revenue is projected to exceed $16 billion annually by 2030.</p><p>Tesla's \"boundless potential\" fees can be divided into three categories:<b>autonomous driving software package</b>、<b>Unlock specific features</b>、<b>entertainment system</b>。</p><p>1. FSD (Full Self-Driving) optional package. Advanced autonomous driving functions, including automatic navigation assistance and intelligent summoning. Last July, its price had risen to $8,000 (64,000 yuan in China). Not long ago, Tesla also launched the Enhanced Driver Assistance (EAP) package, half the price. It includes most of the FSD functions, but excludes potential future autonomous driving features; simply put, FSD = EAP + PPT. 2. OTA paid upgrades. A typical example is the \"Acceleration Boost\" Acceleration performance upgrade package. Model 3 owners can improve their car's 0-100 km/h acceleration time from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds for just $3,000 (14,100 yuan in China). There are also upgraded range; for example, the early Model S 60 could be upgraded to the same range as the Model S 75 for a fee. But in reality, this is \"locking the battery,\" and the battery will be remotely unlocked for you after you pay later. 3. Advanced vehicle networking functions. Starting in 2019, Tesla introduced a premium connectivity service fee ($9.90/month) for the first time. After paying the service fee, owners can use advanced connectivity features such as real-time road conditions, karaoke, and streaming media. In reality, the commercial potential of Tesla's software business mainly depends on...<b>Sales volume</b>、<b>activation rate</b>、<b>Unit price</b>Three major variables, looking at changes in business models in the long run.</p><p>In terms of sales, financial reports show that Tesla delivered 184,800 new vehicles in the first quarter of 2021, exceeding the 173,000 vehicles previously predicted by Wall Street, representing a year-on-year sales increase of 109%. This number far exceeds the 20,000 units in Nio, 13,000 units in XPeng, and 126 units in Li Auto during the same period.</p><p>Regarding activation rates, Deutsche Bank predicted in its 2020 report \"Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings\" that Tesla's overall FSD activation rate would be around 25%-30%, mainly concentrated in the US market. Although the official activation rate in the Chinese market has not been released, Li Auto founder Li Xiang commented that \"less than 2% of users have FSD as an option\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7cd772716431e15350e6221c9297bb6\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"882\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of unit price, Tesla's FSD currently has the highest purchase price, reaching 64,000 yuan. The NIO NIO Pilot full package is priced at 39,000 yuan as an option, while the XPeng XPILOT requires 20,000 yuan as an option.</p><p>Currently, Elon Musk is actively promoting the transformation of FSD from a one-time pre-installation fee model to a subscription service fee model. According to foreign media reports, Tesla is expected to launch an FSD subscription service by the end of the year, priced at approximately $100 per month.</p><p>Once the business model transformation for software subscription services is completed, every vehicle sold that activates FSD is expected to contribute continuous cash flow to Tesla.</p><p>Coincidentally, during the Q4 2020 earnings call, Li Bin interpreted the business prospects of NIO's autonomous driving system Service subscription model, which is activated monthly and paid monthly: \"Simply put, I think that charging in the AD as a Service (ADaaS) model will have a higher Take rate than the current Take rate, which makes it possible for a car to generate revenue throughout its entire lifecycle and is also more user-friendly.\"</p><p>Similarly, in its first-quarter report this year, XPeng Motor Company also stated that \"the monetization of XPILOT software will become recurring revenue and part of vehicle sales revenue.\" According to financial reports, XPeng has generated 80 million yuan in revenue through XPilot 3.5.</p><p><b>Shifting from one-time payment to subscription-based is a healthy business model, especially for users.</b></p><p>\"On-demand subscriptions for autonomous driving services are more suitable. Once autonomous driving becomes widespread and standard, other paid models will be launched, such as data fees, in-car experience fees such as watching movies, and advertising fees,\" said Mei Songlin, Vice President of Strategic Operations at WM Motor Group.</p><p>For example, with battery rental services in Nio, users only need to pay a monthly battery rental fee, without having to buy an expensive battery pack at once when purchasing a car. Whether you're willing to pay 70,000 yuan to buy out a battery, or rent a battery for 980 yuan a month, everyone probably has their own opinion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b6d8846185a8931af33ab3c60a66b6\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"240\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Moreover, when you only need to commute in the city, you can choose a cheaper and shorter-lived 70kWh battery pack for only 980 yuan per month. When you need to travel long distances, you can pay an additional 880 yuan/month to temporarily upgrade to a 100kWh battery pack, which you can replace when you no longer need it. Commonly known as buying on demand.</p><p><b>However, compared to a buyout, a subscription system requires users to spend more money.</b></p><p>For example, in Nio, the flexible upgrade of battery packs costs 1480 yuan/month if you directly choose a 100kWh battery pack. If you choose a 70kWh battery pack, the short-term flexible upgrade costs an additional 880 yuan on top of the 980 yuan, which is equivalent to 1860 yuan/month. This is 380 yuan more expensive per month than choosing a 100kWh battery pack directly.</p><p>During the earnings call, He Xiaopeng, founder of XPeng Motor Company, stated, \"Paying by service or monthly is actually higher in terms of total volume than a one-time buyout.\" He also indicated that XPeng Motor Company is considering adding other forms of payment for services.</p><p><b>Essentially, besides changing payment methods, the most important thing is to solve user pain points.</b></p><p>For example, Tesla's 0-100 km/h acceleration costs over 10,000 yuan to improve from 4.6 seconds to 4.1 seconds, which is meaningless to most users. However, spending 2,400 yuan to unlock the rear seat heating is a necessity for car owners in northern China. Cities like Nio and Li Auto have examples of paid upgrades to vehicle-related hardware, but whether or not they are provided depends entirely on the user.</p><p>Battery rental services like those in Nio solve user pain points. On the one hand, expensive batteries are removed from the car price to reduce the cost of purchasing a car. On the other hand, the vehicle's resale value will not decrease due to reduced battery life.</p><p>However, we can also see that although Tesla is large enough, its activation rate may not be ideal given its high unit price. You've already spent 250,000 yuan to buy a domestically produced Tesla, and you still need to spend 64,000 yuan, or 25% of the total car price, to buy a software package. You really need to think twice before you act.</p><p>III. Paid model, is it too early to cut?</p><p><b>The revenue from paid software still has a promising future, at least in the mobile phone industry.</b></p><p>Previous data showed that Apple's App Store revenue was approximately $48.5 billion in 2018, approximately $50 billion in 2019, and reached $64 billion in 2020. The App Store business has become an important growth area for Apple. The department's performance is included in Apple's services division. In fiscal year 2020, which ended at the end of September, Apple's services division generated $53.7 billion in sales.</p><p>Xiaomi, which learned from Apple, is also trying to find more revenue sources in addition to selling mobile phones. For example, Xiaomi's internet services business, which mainly focuses on advertising, games, fintech, and other value-added services, has developed steadily. In the first quarter, it achieved revenue of 6.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and its gross profit margin even reached 72.4%.</p><p>Xiaomi's profit-making logic in the mobile internet era is: selling hardware doesn't make money; once it grows in scale, it makes money through its internet business. Essentially, Tesla, Nio, and XPeng officially adopted this method.<b>However, some automakers will \"over-experiment\" with the Xiaomi model in cars.</b>。</p><p>Not long ago, Ford applied for a technology patent in the United States that forces outdoor advertising content to be displayed on the car's center control screen. This technology uses a camera lens built into the car to monitor outdoor billboards and then displays the advertising content on the car screen through image recognition. Ford says the system can even analyze advertising content and provide information such as website links or phone numbers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d8f965813c6d002b7af27fdf2635f6\" tg-width=\"905\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In China, some netizens have reported that advertisements appear on the center console screen after starting the Haval H6 they purchased. This seems a bit chilling. Will future cars be like Xiaomi TVs and LeEco TVs, starting with a 15-second ad and paying 99 yuan a month to purchase a VIP membership to skip the ads?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/500d1df574949f7ca053dfe5f2ae6863\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Therefore, Li Xiang, an \"anti-payment advocate,\" believes that it is too early to talk about paid software: \"Today, it is still impossible to directly apply the business model of computers or mobile phones. At first, people thought that the business model of mobile phones was the same as that of computers, but later they found that they were completely different.\"</p><p>A comparison reveals that entry-level products from the previous PC and mobile internet eras all shared the following characteristics:</p><p>1. Quantity: A large user base; 2. Content: A large amount of user-needed content; 3. Technology: Emerging information dissemination technologies; 4. Time: A large amount of user time; These features blend almost perfectly into today's smart electric vehicles. Therefore, decision-makers can conclude on a whim:<b>Automobiles are the next generation of traffic entry points; let's seize the opportunity first.</b></p><p>However, you will find some interesting phenomena, whether it was computer software in the past or mobile software now. It gradually transformed from a pure tool App into a large content platform, and finally into a content-rich advertising platform. Although China has given birth to a large number of software companies, when it comes to profit models, they can never escape three words:<b>Selling advertising</b>。</p><p><b>I just beg the big manufacturers, please leave the cars alone. I want to drive properly.</b></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html\">虎嗅</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a2600c039dfabf2eb07c2d957114bdd","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/431263.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155283133","content_text":"最近，特斯拉因为在软件更新时，降低充电速度和电池容量，被挪威法庭判罚有罪，或因此需向车主们支付约9.64万人民币（约1.6万美元）罚款。早在2019年时，特斯拉通过软件升级限制部分车辆的续航里程和充电速度。部分车主在进行升级软件之后，发现续航里程出现明显下滑情况。对软件下手，特斯拉是一把好手。据Electrek报道，截至2019年，特斯拉通过出售全自动驾驶FSD软件包获得的收入已经超过了10亿美元。不止是自动驾驶功能，包括加速性能、联网服务，特斯拉都从车主身上赚到了钱。可能是英雄所见略同。软件付费的模式也被国内造车新势力所推崇。尤其是在自动辅助驾驶功能上，小鹏汽车的XPILOT、蔚来的NIO Pilot都需要用户付费数万元进行选购。付费选装本身没有争议，但是，传统车企在你没有选配的情况下几乎不会预装硬件。而包括特斯拉在内的很多智能电动汽车，会先预装大量硬件，芯片、传感器等等。购车价格里，似乎又隐形地包含了这些硬件配置的价格。比如蔚来ET7全系标配激光雷达，但软件大概率是额外付费才能用——付费模式，看来就像是毛利率极高的“收割模式”。然而，造车新势力中也有“异类”——理想汽车就旗帜鲜明的站在了“付费党”的对立面。最近理想汽车创始人李想在采访中就表示，自动驾驶都是标配，不额外向客户收取费用。“我们认为自动驾驶是智能电动车的最底层的操作系统。”卖硬件不赚钱，靠卖软件赚钱？这个移动互联网时代被喊烂的口号，如今悄然在汽车圈流行。一、销量上不去，都是空话先抛出一个观点：现阶段，在销量没有上去的时候，就开始谈新的商业模式，肯定有割韭菜的嫌疑。据财报显示，2021年第一季度，蔚来营收79.82亿元；理想汽车营收35.75亿元；小鹏汽车营收29.51亿元。其中，蔚来的汽车销售额为74.058亿元人民币，占总营收的92%；理想汽车的汽车销售额为34.6亿元，占总营收的96.7%；小鹏汽车的汽车销售额为28.10亿元，占总营收的95%。这意味着，九成的收入依旧来自于卖车。从销量上，“造车三宝”在一季度形成了蔚来、小鹏、理想的排名序列。其中，蔚来共交付20,060辆新车，同比增长422.7%，环比增长15.6%。小鹏汽车交付量达到了13,340辆，环比增长近3%，成功反超理想汽车。而理想汽车共交付了12,579辆理想ONE，虽同比增长334.4%，但环比减少了超13%。著名经济学家宋清辉认为，销量规模不足是三家新势力造车企业实现盈利的最大掣肘。国信证券发布的研报则认为，蔚来、小鹏、理想要想实现盈利，销量规模分别需要达到18万辆、6万辆、12万辆。自交付以来截至2021年4月，蔚来ES8、ES6、EC6三款车型的累计交付量约10.28万辆；一款车打天下的理想ONE累计交付量约为5.17万辆；小鹏P7和G3两款车型的累计交付量约5.87万辆，均未达到上述研报中的销量规模。所以，亏损也属于正常表现。今年一季度，理想汽车净亏损为3.6亿元，从去年四季度的季度盈利状态，跌回了亏损状态。可以看到，营销和销售渠道的投入加大，但环比销量却减少，直接就把理想拉回到盈亏线以下。同期蔚来、小鹏也仍在从亏损境地往盈利线爬。一季度，蔚来的净亏损为4.510亿元，同比下降73.3%，环比下降67.5%。而小鹏汽车的净亏损则为7.866亿元，相比上季度亏损幅度有所收窄。能不能赚钱，还有一个关键数据是毛利率。一季度，理想汽车的综合毛利率为17.3%，整车毛利率为16.9%，相比去年四季度的17.1%有所下降，原因是推出的促销活动导致平均单车收入下降。比较有趣的是小鹏和蔚来。一季度，小鹏汽车的综合毛利率11.2%，整车毛利率为10.1%，去年是-5.3%，上个季度是6.8%，上涨的原因除了材料成本降低，小鹏汽车自动驾驶XPILOT软件付费业务的销售收入计入，推动了毛利率的增长。同样的，蔚来的综合毛利率为19.5%，整车毛利率竟然高达21.2%。蔚来方面表示，毛利增长主要得益于100度电池和NIO Pilot选装率的增加。100度电池包的毛利贡献在5000元左右，NIO Pilot在8000元左右。目前，100度电池包一季度的选装率在25%。实际上，在体量相差不大、硬件采购成本没有太大出入的情况下，决定整车销售毛利率的关键因素就落在了软件订阅服务这一‘增值’部分。我们可以看到，蔚来、小鹏都在尝试“软件付费模式”的新路子，并且效果还不错。二、硬件交朋友，软件割韭菜据安信证券预计，特斯拉通过FSD付费模式，带来的累计现金收入达到12.6亿美元。预计在2030年，订阅服务收入更有望每年逾160亿美元。特斯拉“钱途无量”的收费项目分为三类：自动驾驶软件包、解锁特定功能、娱乐系统。1、FSD(Full Self-Driving)完全自动驾驶选装包。包括自动辅助导航驾驶、智能召唤等在内的高级自动驾驶功能。去年7月，其价格已经上涨至8000美元(国内64000元）。不久前，特斯拉还推出EAP增强辅助驾驶功能包，价格便宜一半。包含了绝大部分FSD的功能，但不含未来可能实现的自动驾驶功能，简单来说就是：FSD=EAP+PPT。2、OTA 付费升级。典型案例就是“Acceleration Boost”加速性能升级包。Model 3 车主只要付费3000美元（国内14100元），即可将汽车的百公里加速性能从4.6s提升到4.1s。还有升级续航，比如早期Model S 60可以付费升级至Model S 75同等的续航里程。但其实这是“锁电”，后期付费再给你远程解锁电量。3、高级车联网功能。特斯拉从2019 年开始，首度开启车联网高级连接服务收费(9.9 美元/月)，车主支付了服务费后即可使用实时路况、卡拉 OK、流媒体等高级车联网功能。实际上，特斯拉软件业务的商业潜力，短期主要看销量、激活率、单价三大变量，长期看商业模式变化。销量方面，财报数据显示，特斯拉2021年第一季度共交付18.48万辆新车，超过此前华尔街普遍预测的17.3万辆，销售同比增长109%。这个数字，远超同期蔚来的2万台、小鹏的1.3万台、理想的1.26台。激活率方面，德意志银行在2020年出具的报告《Positive takeaways from Tesla investor meetings》中预测，特斯拉FSD整体的激活率大致在25%-30%，并且主要集中在美国市场。虽然官方没有公布中国市场的激活率，但理想汽车创始人李想却给出了“不到2%的用户选装FSD”的评论。单价方面，特斯拉目前的FSD选购价格是最高的，达到了6.4万元。蔚来的NIO Pilot全配包选装价为3.9万元，小鹏汽车XPILOT需要2万元选配。目前，埃隆·马斯克正在积极推动FSD从一次性前装收费的模式，转变成订阅服务持续收费的模式。据外媒报道，特斯拉有望在年底前推出FSD订阅服务，价格约为每月100美元。一旦完成软件订阅服务的商业模式转换，每辆激活FSD的销售车辆都有望为特斯拉贡献持续的现金流。无独有偶，在2020年四季度财报电话会上，李斌对蔚来自动驾驶系统按月开通、按月付费的服务订阅模式的商业前景进行了解读：“简单来讲，我认为AD as a Service(ADaaS)方式来收费会比现在的Take rate（转换率）更高，这使得一辆车在全生命周期都有收入的可能，对用户也更友好。”同样的，在今年一季报报中，小鹏汽车方面也表示，“XPILOT软件货币化将成为经常性收入，成为车辆销售收入的一部分”。据财报数据显示，通过XPILOT3.5，小鹏汽车已经获得8000万元的收入。从一次性付费转变到订阅式，才是健康的商业模式，对用户更是如此。“自动驾驶服务按需订阅比较适合，一旦自动驾驶普及、成为标配，也会推出其他的付费模式，比如流量费、车内体验费如看电影、广告费等。”威马汽车集团战略运营副总裁梅松林分析表示。举个例子，蔚来的电池租用服务，用户仅需按月支付电池租用服务费，无需在购车时一次性买断昂贵的电池包。你是愿意付7万买断一块电池，还是每月980租一个电池，想必大家自己心里都有一杆秤。而且，当你只需要在城市通勤时，就可以选择价格更便宜、续航更短的70kWh电池包，每月只要支付980元。当你有需求跑长途时，可额外再付880元/月，临时升级100kWh的电池包，不需要时再换回来。俗称按需购买。但是，相比一次买断，订阅制需要用户花更多的钱。比如像蔚来的电池包灵活升级，直接选择100kWh电池包是1480/月，如果是70kWh，短期灵活升级，是在980元的基础上，额外再付880元升级，相当于1860元/月，竟然比直接选100kWh还要贵上380元每月。小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏在财报电话会中表示：“按服务和按月来付费的话，实际上从总量来看比一次性买断价格会更高。”同时，他还表示，小鹏汽车正在考虑增加按其他形式付费的服务方式。本质上，除了付费方式变换，最重要的还是解决用户痛点。就比如特斯拉的百公里加速，花费1万多，可以从4.6秒提升4.1秒，对于大部分用户来说是毫无意义的。然而，花费2400元解锁后排座椅加热，对于北方的车主来说，这是刚需。包括像蔚来、理想汽车都会有相应的付费升级车辆相关硬件的案例，提供与否完全取决于用户。像蔚来的电池租用服务，就是解决了用户痛点。一方面，将昂贵的电池从车价中剥离，降低购车成本。另一方面，车辆不会因电池寿命减少而降低保值率。但话说回来，我们也可以看到，虽然特斯拉的体量够大，但在高额的单价面前，激活率可能并不理想。你已经花费25万购买一台国产特斯拉，还要再花6万4、占总车价25%的价格去购买一个软件包，确实需要三思而后行。三、付费模式，割得太早？软件付费的收入，至少在手机行业里还是前景可观的。此前有数据显示，苹果App Store 2018年收入约为485亿美元，2019年收入约为500亿美元，而2020年达到了640亿美元。App Store业务已成为苹果的一个重要增长领域。该部门的业绩被计入到苹果的服务部门。在截至9月底的2020财年，苹果服务部门的销售额为537亿美元。师从苹果的小米，除了卖手机以外，也在尝试更多的营收来源。比如小米以广告、游戏、金融科技、其他增值服务为主的互联网服务业务稳步发展，在一季度实现收入65.70亿元，同比增长11.4%，毛利率甚至达到了72.4%。小米在移动互联网时代的赚钱逻辑是：卖硬件不赚钱，规模上来以后，靠互联网业务赚钱。本质上，特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏正式沿用这套方法，但也有车企会将小米模式在汽车上“过度尝试”。不久前，福特在美国申请了一项技术专利，将户外的广告宣传内容强制显示于汽车中控屏幕——这项技术利用内置于汽车的相机镜头，对户外广告板进行监控，再通过图像识别功能将广告内容显示于汽车屏幕上。福特表示系统甚至可以分析广告内容，提供网址链接或电话号码等资料。在国内，也有网友表示，自己购买的哈弗H6，在启动之后，中控屏幕会出现广告。这似乎有点不寒而栗，未来的汽车是否也会像小米电视、乐视电视一样，开机先看15秒的广告，付费99每月购买VIP会员才可以跳过广告？所以“反付费党”李想，则认为现在谈软件付费还为时尚早：“今天还是没有办法直接拿电脑或者是拿手机的商业模式套过来。最开始的时候大家认为手机的商业模式跟电脑是一样的，后来发现完全不同。”对比发现，以前PC时代、移动互联网时代的入口级产品都具有如下特征：1、数量：大量的用户使用基础；2、内容：大量的用户需求内容；3、技术：新兴的信息传播技术；4、时间：大量的用户使用时间；这些特征放在如今的智能电动汽车上，几乎完美融合。所以，决策者拍脑子就能得出结论：汽车，是下一个时代的流量入口，我们先占了坑再说。但是，你会发现一些有趣的现象，无论是以前电脑软件，还是现在是手机软件。从以前纯洁的工具App，逐渐变成大型内容平台，最后再变成内容丰富的广告平台。中国虽然诞生了大批的软件公司，但最后谈到盈利模式的时候，他们嘴里永远逃不开三个字：卖广告。只求求大厂们，放过汽车吧，我想好好开车。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9981920763,"gmtCreate":1666388211252,"gmtModify":1676537749334,"author":{"id":"3585015704454479","authorId":"3585015704454479","name":"月亮湾湾照狮城","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a65141f7fef1fccd27684150e1416319","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585015704454479","idStr":"3585015704454479"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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