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Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual

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Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149929778,"gmtCreate":1625702057894,"gmtModify":1703746573504,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149929778","repostId":"1176865752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154151225,"gmtCreate":1625491887967,"gmtModify":1703742633304,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154151225","repostId":"1109703914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158854651,"gmtCreate":1625145915673,"gmtModify":1703737060041,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158854651","repostId":"1131385251","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158852366,"gmtCreate":1625145816155,"gmtModify":1703737057271,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158852366","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188760901,"gmtCreate":1623462254903,"gmtModify":1704204248598,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188760901","repostId":"1117150461","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188787072,"gmtCreate":1623462228696,"gmtModify":1704204247308,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188787072","repostId":"1183458691","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188613863,"gmtCreate":1623431690552,"gmtModify":1704203682028,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188613863","repostId":"2140647604","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188639090,"gmtCreate":1623431143010,"gmtModify":1704203666026,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listT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16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188760901,"gmtCreate":1623462254903,"gmtModify":1704204248598,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188760901","repostId":"1117150461","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117150461","pubTimestamp":1623461758,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117150461?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 09:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cramer’s week ahead: Don’t underestimate the market’s small gains","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117150461","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer said not to underestimate the small gains stocks have put up in recent","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer said not to underestimate the small gains stocks have put up in recent days.\n“Some would say it’s the calm before the storm ... I learned a long time ago that you never ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cramers-week-ahead-dont-underestimate-the-markets-small-gains.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cramer’s week ahead: Don’t underestimate the market’s small gains</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCramer’s week ahead: Don’t underestimate the market’s small gains\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 09:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cramers-week-ahead-dont-underestimate-the-markets-small-gains.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer said not to underestimate the small gains stocks have put up in recent days.\n“Some would say it’s the calm before the storm ... I learned a long time ago that you never ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cramers-week-ahead-dont-underestimate-the-markets-small-gains.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/cramers-week-ahead-dont-underestimate-the-markets-small-gains.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1117150461","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nCNBC’s Jim Cramer said not to underestimate the small gains stocks have put up in recent days.\n“Some would say it’s the calm before the storm ... I learned a long time ago that you never short a dull market,” the “Mad Money” host said.\n“I want you to find relatively inexpensive stocks of good companies and then you can buy them on the cheap because of this genuine Wall Street gibberish that drives down some stocks unfairly,” he said.\n\nAfter stocks muscled their way slightly higher on Friday, CNBC’s Jim Cramer advised investors not to underestimate a market that’s putting up small gains.\nTheS&P 500crawled 0.19% higher to 4,247.44, a record close.\n“Some would say it’s the calm before the storm ... I learned a long time ago that you never short a dull market,” the “Mad Money” host said. “It’s good news that we’re being lulled to record highs and the market keeps shrugging off negatives, including yesterday’s scorching hot inflation numbers.”\nElsewhere, theDow Jones Industrial Indexinched up 0.04% to 34,479.60. TheNasdaq Compositeincreased 0.35% to settle at 14,069.42.\nIn the week ahead, Wall Street will turn its attentions to producer price index data on Tuesday and a readout from the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday. The producer price index, which measures how much companies pay producers for goods, could also be hot, Cramer said.\nEither way, investors may be able to find opportunities in the market, he said.\n“I want you to find relatively inexpensive stocks of good companies, and then you can buy them on the cheap because of this genuine Wall Street gibberish that drives down some stocks unfairly,” he said. “Whether they’re value or growth names makes no difference to me or to Cramerica.”\nCramer gave viewers a preview of the upcoming corporate earnings reports he has circled on his calendar. Projections for revenue and earnings per share are based on FactSet estimates:\nTuesday: Oracle\nOracle\n\nQ4 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.\nProjected EPS: $1.31\nProjected revenue: $11.02 billion\n\n“This boring, old-school enterprise software company has seen its stock surge 28% year-to-date, thanks to a remarkable acceleration in its core businesses,” Cramer said. “I bet it reports a fine quarter.”\nWednesday: Lennar\nLennar\n\nQ2 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: Thursday, 10:30 a.m.\nProjected EPS: $2.37\nProjected revenue: $6.10 billion\n\n“Stuart Miller, the former CEO and current executive chairman, likes to give you the state of the state on housing on that conference call,” he said. “We know there’s been an immense amount of inflation in the raw materials that go into a house, although lumber’s come down. But the final cost barely creeps up and that’s thanks to the ingenuity of these excellent builders.”\nThursday: Kroger, Jabil, Adobe\nKroger\n\nQ1 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 10 a.m.\nProjected EPS: 98 cents\nProjected revenue: $39.56 billion\n\n“Kroger’s stock has become a standout performer, and that’s because it’s a major beneficiary from inflation,” Cramer said. “I actually do expect a terrific number from Kroger, not many people are thinking that.”\nJabil\n\nQ3 2021 earnings release: before market; conference call: 8:30 a.m.\nProjected EPS: $1.04\nProjected revenue: $6.95 billion\n\n“Jabil does a lot of business with Apple, and Wall Street loves playing silly guessing games by trying to extrapolate from Jabil’s results to Apple’s,” he said. “I wish they’d just focus on Jabil itself, which has been an amazing stock, up 36% for the year. Another unsung stock of an unsung company in an unsung bull market.”\nAdobe\n\nQ2 2021 earnings release: after market; conference call: 5 p.m.\nProjected EPS: $2.81\nProjected revenue: $3.73 billion\n\n“Lately [this] stock’s been meandering and that has usually been the best time to buy it,” the host said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158854651,"gmtCreate":1625145915673,"gmtModify":1703737060041,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158854651","repostId":"1131385251","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149929778,"gmtCreate":1625702057894,"gmtModify":1703746573504,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149929778","repostId":"1176865752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154151225,"gmtCreate":1625491887967,"gmtModify":1703742633304,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154151225","repostId":"1109703914","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109703914","pubTimestamp":1625464355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109703914?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 13:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109703914","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.It's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading i","content":"<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.</p>\n<p>So will the major markets open or close for the holiday?</p>\n<p>The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.</p>\n<p>It's&nbsp;one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.</p>\n<p>For instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.</p>\n<p>Normal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the Stock Market Open or Closed on Independence Day?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-05 13:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours><strong>Thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/independence-day-stock-markets-trading-hours","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109703914","content_text":"Independence Day in the U.S. is for many a picnic-and-beach day. But July 4 this year falls on a Sunday, which in the United States isn't a trading day.\nSo will the major markets open or close for the holiday?\nThe New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq will, in fact, be closed on Monday, July 5, to celebrate Independence Day.\nIt's one of nine full-closing daysfor the stock market this year.\nFor instance, the stock market will close for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Nov. 25. On Friday, Nov. 26, trading is scheduled for a bit more than a half-day, 9:30 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET.\nNormal stock-trading hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158852366,"gmtCreate":1625145816155,"gmtModify":1703737057271,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/158852366","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2148840288","pubTimestamp":1625139913,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2148840288?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 19:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148840288","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Retail investors can't stop buying into these companies.","content":"<p>Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based <b>S&amp;P 500</b> shedding 34% of its value in about a month during the first quarter of 2020, we've watched the benchmark index catapult more than 90% off of its lows.</p>\n<p>For some investors, volatility is something they fear. But for predominantly young and novice retail investors, volatility is the impetus that's driven them to put their money to work in the stock market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b3853458b2424e2901821012f5502f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>As volatility has whipsawed the market, these younger retail investors have found their home with online investing app Robinhood. We know this because Robinhood added approximately 3 million new users in 2020.</p>\n<p>There are a number of lures for retail investors with Robinhood. For example, Robinhood doesn't charge a commission when stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange or <b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;exchange are bought or sold. Robinhood is also <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of many brokerages that allows for fractional share investing. And, who can forget that Robinhood also gifts free shares of stock to new users.</p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> respect, it's a fantastic thing to see young people putting their money to work. Time is the biggest ally investors have. The earlier they start putting their money to work, the better chance they have of compounding their nest egg.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Robinhood's retail investors have been buying some really awful stocks. Instead of thinking for the long-term, their buying activity demonstrates a willingness to chase momentum plays, penny stocks, and money-losing businesses.</p>\n<p>If you don't believe me, here's a closer look at the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks as we enter July.</p>\n<table width=\"492\">\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Company</th>\n   <th>Company</th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>1. <b>Tesla Motors</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA)</td>\n   <td>26. <b>Snap&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2. <b>Apple&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>27. <b>Alibaba&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3. <b>AMC Entertainment</b> (NYSE:AMC)</td>\n   <td>28. <b>Bank of America</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>4. <b>Sundial Growers</b> (NASDAQ:SNDL)</td>\n   <td>29. <b>OrganiGram Holdings</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5. <b>Ford Motor</b></td>\n   <td>30. <b>Coinbase Global</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>6. <b>General Electric</b></td>\n   <td>31. <b>Tilray&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>7. <b>NIO&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>32. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>8. <b>Walt Disney</b></td>\n   <td>33. <b>Canopy Growth&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>9. <b>Microsoft</b></td>\n   <td>34. <b>Advanced Micro Devices</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>10. <b>Amazon&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>35. <b>Starbucks</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>11. <b>American Airlines Group</b> (NASDAQ:AAL)</td>\n   <td>36. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a></b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>12. <b>Plug Power</b></td>\n   <td>37. <b>AT&amp;T</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>13. <b>Nokia</b></td>\n   <td>38. <b>Moderna</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>14. <b>Carnival</b></td>\n   <td>39. <b>NVIDIA</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15. <b>Aurora Cannabis</b> (NASDAQ:ACB)</td>\n   <td>40. <b>FuelCell Energy</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>16. <b>Pfizer</b></td>\n   <td>41. <b>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>17. <b>Zomedica&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>42. <b>Coca-Cola</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>18. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPRO\">GoPro</a>&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>43. <b>Norwegian Cruise Line</b> (NYSE:NCLH)</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>19. <b>Naked Brand Group</b></td>\n   <td>44. <b>Ideanomics</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20. <b>Palantir Technologies</b></td>\n   <td>45. <b>Workhorse Group</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>21. <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME)</td>\n   <td>46. <b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>22. <b>Delta Air Lines&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>47. <b>Virgin Galactic</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>23. <b>BlackBerry</b></td>\n   <td>48. <b>General Motors</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>24. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a></b></td>\n   <td>49. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNGA\">Zynga</a></b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25. <b>Netflix&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>50. <b>United Airlines</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Robinhood, as of June 26, 2021. Table by author.</p>\n<h2>Continuing to chase meme stocks</h2>\n<p>Like bees to honey, retail investors have been inseparable from meme stocks for almost six months. A meme stock is a company valued more for its social media favorability/hype than its operating performance.</p>\n<p>Since mid-January, retail investors have been banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. In many instances, companies with high levels of short interest have poor-performing businesses. This is how we've witnessed GameStop and AMC Entertainment become extremely popular on Robinhood.</p>\n<p>The good news for GameStop is that it's been able to use its monumental run to sell shares of common stock and raise capital. It's completely erased its debt and given itself more than enough cash to oversee its ongoing transformation into a digital gaming company. To be clear, this doesn't negate the fact that GameStop's previous management team completely dropped the ball on the shift to digital gaming. What it does do is give the company enough capital to at least attempt a transformation.</p>\n<p>The same can't be said for AMC, which sold the vast majority of its shares six months ago to avoid bankruptcy. Even with a handful of recent capital raises, AMC has well over $3 billion in net debt, and its 2027 bond prices indicate the company is still a bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>To make matters worse, movie theater ticket sales have been in a 19-year decline. Even with a larger share of the movie theater industry, AMC's pie is shrinking. It's pretty clear that social media hype, ignorance of fundamental data, and misinformation are the key drivers behind AMC's irrational rally.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc514068ded899a817770f684369db36\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Canadian cannabis binge</h2>\n<p>Robinhood's retail investors also have quite the crush on Canadian marijuana stocks. Five of the 33 most-held companies on Robinhood's leaderboard hail from our neighbor to the north.</p>\n<p>Even though cannabis-focused research company BDSA has forecasted weed sales growth in Canada from $2.6 billion in 2020 to $6.4 billion by 2026, the Canadian pot industry has been a disaster. Regulators have caused all sorts of supply chain issues, consumers have flocked to lower-margin value brands, and Canadian marijuana stocks overzealously expanded and, in some instances, decimated their balance sheets in the process.</p>\n<p>Robinhood investors' fascination with Sundial Growers is nothing short of frustrating. It may well be the single most-avoidable marijuana stock. Although its management team was able to pay off the company's existing debt by issuing stock and conducting debt-for-equity swaps, these share offerings simply haven't stopped. In a little over a seven-month stretch, more than 1.35 billion shares were issued. Sundial is showing zero regard for its shareholders, and its management team hasn't even laid out a concrete plan for how it'll spend its cash.</p>\n<p>We've seen similar issues from Aurora Cannabis, the second most-popular Canadian weed stock. Once the most-held stock on Robinhood, Aurora has drowned its shareholders in dilution. Even after selling one of its greenhouses and shuttering a number of other cultivation facilities, its cost-cutting has put it nowhere near close to generating a profit. As long as Aurora keeps burning through cash, its management team will continue to issue stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e9f554fbd3314fbbb8ba78c5a65d3e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\"><span>Image source: American Airlines.</span></p>\n<h2>An obsession with travel companies</h2>\n<p>Another absolute head-scratcher is Robinhood investors' obsession with travel companies -- specifically airlines and cruise ship operators.</p>\n<p>On one hand, the case could be made that the coronavirus pandemic overly punished the travel industry. Though we remain firmly in a global pandemic, increased domestic vaccination rates offer hope that the U.S. could soon put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For instance, the Transportation Security Administration screened over 2 million passengers in a single day in mid-June for the first time since before the pandemic was declared.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, the travel industry tends to be built on mediocre margins, at best, and it typically requires the economy to be running on all cylinders. Despite recovering from a recession, most airline stocks are now lugging around billions in extra debt that they didn't have two years ago. American Airlines, which I've previously anointed as the worst airline stock, has $34 billion in net debt and $48 billion in aggregate debt. The interest American Airlines is going to have to pay to service this debt could cripple its growth initiatives for the next decade.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, companies like Norwegian Cruise Line came perilously close to bankruptcy during the pandemic. Unlike airlines, which are essential for business travel, cruise ships aren't essential. They'll remain at the mercy of the pandemic until it's firmly in the rearview mirror. That means Norwegian may continue losing money well into 2022, if not beyond.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd808070a9dde55f37210b59edc2e23\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>A Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.</span></p>\n<h2>Alternative energy for autos in focus</h2>\n<p>Lastly, Robinhood investors appear to be going all-in on anything that has to do with alternative/clean energy for vehicles.</p>\n<p>Electric vehicle (EV) kingpin Tesla has surpassed Apple to become the most-held stock on the platform, while Ford, General Motors, Workhorse Group, NIO, and Churchill Capital are other EV producers that found their way into the top 50 leaderboard (GM and Ford predominantly produce combustion-engine vehicles at the moment). If we also include Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Ideanomics, that's nine of the top 48 Robinhood stocks that are devoted to alternative energy adoption for autos.</p>\n<p>There's pretty much no question at this point that EVs and potentially hydrogen fuel cells represent the future of the automotive industry. There's a multi-decade opportunity for consumers and enterprise fleets to switch over to alternative solutions, as well as for ancillary players to build the infrastructure necessary to support EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.</p>\n<p>The issue is that investors have a tendency to overestimate how quickly new technology is adopted, and that's likely what we're witnessing with EVs. The fact that Tesla is worth $647 billion is ludicrous considering that it hasn't demonstrated it can generate a profit from selling its EVs. The only way Tesla has been able to generate a profit is by selling renewable energy credits or taking a one-time benefit from the sale of <b>Bitcoin</b>.</p>\n<p>The EV space is growing increasingly more crowded, and the major auto stocks are investing tens of billions into new models. It's unlikely that Tesla will be able to hold onto its competitive edge for much longer.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 19:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based S&P 500 shedding 34% of its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","ACB":"奥罗拉大麻公司","MSFT":"微软","PFE":"辉瑞","GE":"GE航空航天","ZOM":"Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.","TSLA":"特斯拉","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","DIS":"迪士尼","AMZN":"亚马逊","NIO":"蔚来","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","PLUG":"普拉格能源","AAPL":"苹果","AAL":"美国航空","NOK":"诺基亚","GPRO":"GoPro"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148840288","content_text":"Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based S&P 500 shedding 34% of its value in about a month during the first quarter of 2020, we've watched the benchmark index catapult more than 90% off of its lows.\nFor some investors, volatility is something they fear. But for predominantly young and novice retail investors, volatility is the impetus that's driven them to put their money to work in the stock market.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nAs volatility has whipsawed the market, these younger retail investors have found their home with online investing app Robinhood. We know this because Robinhood added approximately 3 million new users in 2020.\nThere are a number of lures for retail investors with Robinhood. For example, Robinhood doesn't charge a commission when stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq exchange are bought or sold. Robinhood is also one of many brokerages that allows for fractional share investing. And, who can forget that Robinhood also gifts free shares of stock to new users.\nIn one respect, it's a fantastic thing to see young people putting their money to work. Time is the biggest ally investors have. The earlier they start putting their money to work, the better chance they have of compounding their nest egg.\nOn the other hand, Robinhood's retail investors have been buying some really awful stocks. Instead of thinking for the long-term, their buying activity demonstrates a willingness to chase momentum plays, penny stocks, and money-losing businesses.\nIf you don't believe me, here's a closer look at the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks as we enter July.\n\n\n\nCompany\nCompany\n\n\n\n\n1. Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA)\n26. Snap \n\n\n2. Apple \n27. Alibaba \n\n\n3. AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC)\n28. Bank of America\n\n\n4. Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL)\n29. OrganiGram Holdings\n\n\n5. Ford Motor\n30. Coinbase Global\n\n\n6. General Electric\n31. Tilray \n\n\n7. NIO \n32. Facebook \n\n\n8. Walt Disney\n33. Canopy Growth \n\n\n9. Microsoft\n34. Advanced Micro Devices\n\n\n10. Amazon \n35. Starbucks\n\n\n11. American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL)\n36. Twitter\n\n\n12. Plug Power\n37. AT&T\n\n\n13. Nokia\n38. Moderna\n\n\n14. Carnival\n39. NVIDIA\n\n\n15. Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB)\n40. FuelCell Energy\n\n\n16. Pfizer\n41. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF\n\n\n17. Zomedica \n42. Coca-Cola\n\n\n18. GoPro \n43. Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH)\n\n\n19. Naked Brand Group\n44. Ideanomics\n\n\n20. Palantir Technologies\n45. Workhorse Group\n\n\n21. GameStop (NYSE:GME)\n46. SPDR S&P 500 ETF\n\n\n22. Delta Air Lines \n47. Virgin Galactic\n\n\n23. BlackBerry\n48. General Motors\n\n\n24. Churchill Capital\n49. Zynga\n\n\n25. Netflix \n50. United Airlines\n\n\n\nData source: Robinhood, as of June 26, 2021. Table by author.\nContinuing to chase meme stocks\nLike bees to honey, retail investors have been inseparable from meme stocks for almost six months. A meme stock is a company valued more for its social media favorability/hype than its operating performance.\nSince mid-January, retail investors have been banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. In many instances, companies with high levels of short interest have poor-performing businesses. This is how we've witnessed GameStop and AMC Entertainment become extremely popular on Robinhood.\nThe good news for GameStop is that it's been able to use its monumental run to sell shares of common stock and raise capital. It's completely erased its debt and given itself more than enough cash to oversee its ongoing transformation into a digital gaming company. To be clear, this doesn't negate the fact that GameStop's previous management team completely dropped the ball on the shift to digital gaming. What it does do is give the company enough capital to at least attempt a transformation.\nThe same can't be said for AMC, which sold the vast majority of its shares six months ago to avoid bankruptcy. Even with a handful of recent capital raises, AMC has well over $3 billion in net debt, and its 2027 bond prices indicate the company is still a bankruptcy risk.\nTo make matters worse, movie theater ticket sales have been in a 19-year decline. Even with a larger share of the movie theater industry, AMC's pie is shrinking. It's pretty clear that social media hype, ignorance of fundamental data, and misinformation are the key drivers behind AMC's irrational rally.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nCanadian cannabis binge\nRobinhood's retail investors also have quite the crush on Canadian marijuana stocks. Five of the 33 most-held companies on Robinhood's leaderboard hail from our neighbor to the north.\nEven though cannabis-focused research company BDSA has forecasted weed sales growth in Canada from $2.6 billion in 2020 to $6.4 billion by 2026, the Canadian pot industry has been a disaster. Regulators have caused all sorts of supply chain issues, consumers have flocked to lower-margin value brands, and Canadian marijuana stocks overzealously expanded and, in some instances, decimated their balance sheets in the process.\nRobinhood investors' fascination with Sundial Growers is nothing short of frustrating. It may well be the single most-avoidable marijuana stock. Although its management team was able to pay off the company's existing debt by issuing stock and conducting debt-for-equity swaps, these share offerings simply haven't stopped. In a little over a seven-month stretch, more than 1.35 billion shares were issued. Sundial is showing zero regard for its shareholders, and its management team hasn't even laid out a concrete plan for how it'll spend its cash.\nWe've seen similar issues from Aurora Cannabis, the second most-popular Canadian weed stock. Once the most-held stock on Robinhood, Aurora has drowned its shareholders in dilution. Even after selling one of its greenhouses and shuttering a number of other cultivation facilities, its cost-cutting has put it nowhere near close to generating a profit. As long as Aurora keeps burning through cash, its management team will continue to issue stock.\nImage source: American Airlines.\nAn obsession with travel companies\nAnother absolute head-scratcher is Robinhood investors' obsession with travel companies -- specifically airlines and cruise ship operators.\nOn one hand, the case could be made that the coronavirus pandemic overly punished the travel industry. Though we remain firmly in a global pandemic, increased domestic vaccination rates offer hope that the U.S. could soon put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For instance, the Transportation Security Administration screened over 2 million passengers in a single day in mid-June for the first time since before the pandemic was declared.\nOn the other hand, the travel industry tends to be built on mediocre margins, at best, and it typically requires the economy to be running on all cylinders. Despite recovering from a recession, most airline stocks are now lugging around billions in extra debt that they didn't have two years ago. American Airlines, which I've previously anointed as the worst airline stock, has $34 billion in net debt and $48 billion in aggregate debt. The interest American Airlines is going to have to pay to service this debt could cripple its growth initiatives for the next decade.\nMeanwhile, companies like Norwegian Cruise Line came perilously close to bankruptcy during the pandemic. Unlike airlines, which are essential for business travel, cruise ships aren't essential. They'll remain at the mercy of the pandemic until it's firmly in the rearview mirror. That means Norwegian may continue losing money well into 2022, if not beyond.\nA Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.\nAlternative energy for autos in focus\nLastly, Robinhood investors appear to be going all-in on anything that has to do with alternative/clean energy for vehicles.\nElectric vehicle (EV) kingpin Tesla has surpassed Apple to become the most-held stock on the platform, while Ford, General Motors, Workhorse Group, NIO, and Churchill Capital are other EV producers that found their way into the top 50 leaderboard (GM and Ford predominantly produce combustion-engine vehicles at the moment). If we also include Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Ideanomics, that's nine of the top 48 Robinhood stocks that are devoted to alternative energy adoption for autos.\nThere's pretty much no question at this point that EVs and potentially hydrogen fuel cells represent the future of the automotive industry. There's a multi-decade opportunity for consumers and enterprise fleets to switch over to alternative solutions, as well as for ancillary players to build the infrastructure necessary to support EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.\nThe issue is that investors have a tendency to overestimate how quickly new technology is adopted, and that's likely what we're witnessing with EVs. The fact that Tesla is worth $647 billion is ludicrous considering that it hasn't demonstrated it can generate a profit from selling its EVs. The only way Tesla has been able to generate a profit is by selling renewable energy credits or taking a one-time benefit from the sale of Bitcoin.\nThe EV space is growing increasingly more crowded, and the major auto stocks are investing tens of billions into new models. It's unlikely that Tesla will be able to hold onto its competitive edge for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188787072,"gmtCreate":1623462228696,"gmtModify":1704204247308,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188787072","repostId":"1183458691","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807059451,"gmtCreate":1627990869673,"gmtModify":1703499205398,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807059451","repostId":"2156116506","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188613863,"gmtCreate":1623431690552,"gmtModify":1704203682028,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188613863","repostId":"2140647604","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2140647604","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1622546847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2140647604?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-01 19:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-Ceragon Networks - On May 27, 2021, District Court Of Tel-Aviv Ruled To Certify Lawsuit Filed Against Co In 2015","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2140647604","media":"Reuters","summary":"June 1 (Reuters) - Ceragon Networks Ltd   :   * CERAGON NETWORKS - ON MAY 27, 2021, DISTRICT COURT O","content":"<html><body><p>June 1 (Reuters) - Ceragon Networks Ltd   :</p><p>   * CERAGON NETWORKS - ON MAY 27, 2021, DISTRICT COURT OF TEL-AVIV RULED TO CERTIFY LAWSUIT FILED AGAINST CO IN 2015</p><p>   * CERAGON NETWORKS - PLAINTIFF SEEKS SPECIFIED COMPENSATORY DAMAGES IN A SUM OF UP TO $75 MILLION, AS WELL AS ATTORNEYS’ FEES AND COSTS</p><p>Source text for Eikon: [ID: Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-Ceragon Networks - On May 27, 2021, District Court Of Tel-Aviv Ruled To Certify Lawsuit Filed Against Co In 2015</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Ceragon Networks - On May 27, 2021, District Court Of Tel-Aviv Ruled To Certify Lawsuit Filed Against Co In 2015\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-01 19:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>June 1 (Reuters) - Ceragon Networks Ltd   :</p><p>   * CERAGON NETWORKS - ON MAY 27, 2021, DISTRICT COURT OF TEL-AVIV RULED TO CERTIFY LAWSUIT FILED AGAINST CO IN 2015</p><p>   * CERAGON NETWORKS - PLAINTIFF SEEKS SPECIFIED COMPENSATORY DAMAGES IN A SUM OF UP TO $75 MILLION, AS WELL AS ATTORNEYS’ FEES AND COSTS</p><p>Source text for Eikon: [ID: Further company coverage:   </p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRNT":"Ceragon网络"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2140647604","content_text":"June 1 (Reuters) - Ceragon Networks Ltd   :   * CERAGON NETWORKS - ON MAY 27, 2021, DISTRICT COURT OF TEL-AVIV RULED TO CERTIFY LAWSUIT FILED AGAINST CO IN 2015   * CERAGON NETWORKS - PLAINTIFF SEEKS SPECIFIED COMPENSATORY DAMAGES IN A SUM OF UP TO $75 MILLION, AS WELL AS ATTORNEYS’ FEES AND COSTSSource text for Eikon: [ID: Further company coverage:    ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188639090,"gmtCreate":1623431143010,"gmtModify":1704203666026,"author":{"id":"3585139146451558","authorId":"3585139146451558","name":"Karenyong32","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b991487bc018ab585378ed8b4d298acd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/188639090","repostId":"1196090491","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196090491","pubTimestamp":1623418568,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196090491?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 21:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196090491","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May ","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation is undergoing a ‘structural shift’ and these markets will benefit, strategist says\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 21:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/11/strategist-inflation-is-in-a-structural-shift-and-these-markets-will-benefit.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1196090491","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nThe U.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflation in May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages are not rising as much as would normally be expected alongside GDP growth rates upward of 6%. Real average hourly earnings, which account for inflation, were down 2.8% in May from the previous year.\n\nEuropean stocks are set to outperform the U.S. as inflation sticks around and commodities begin a new “supercycle,” according to Livermore Partners Chief Investment Officer David Neuhauser.\nTheU.S. consumer price index on Thursday showed a 5% jump in headline inflationin May from the previous year, its sharpest increase since 2008. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also notched a 28-year high of 3.8%.\nWhilemarkets have broadly dismissedthe current red-hot inflation figures as transitory and fueled by short-term anomalous factors, Neuhauser argued that a more fundamental \"structural shift\" was taking place.\nLivermore Partners has noted that wages are not rising as much as would normally be expected alongside GDP growth rates upward of 6%. Real average hourly earnings in the U.S., which account for inflation, were down 2.8% in May from the previous year, according to theBureau of Labor Statistics.\n\"As you are seeing prices for automobiles, as prices for houses, as prices for food and energy go up, even though it looks like the economies are starting to boom, the real issue is you're not seeing wages grow as fast,\" Neuhauser told CNBC's \"Squawk Box Europe\" Friday.\n\"Thus ultimately that is going to start to pinch the consumer and as you know, the consumer is 70%-plus of the economy.\"\nIf inflation is indeed here to stay, as Livermore Partners anticipates, Neuhauser suggested this will cause troubles down the line and will cause the Federal Reserve to apply the brakes to its accommodative monetary policy.\nWage growth sluggish\nNeuhauser pointed to McDonald's and Chipotle as examples of companies that have begun to incur substantial and rising input costs while struggling to attract workers in the wake of the pandemic, leading them to offer bonuses and focus on wage growth.\n\"That is ultimately going to increase the price of their goods and services which will of course increase the prices to consumers,\" he added.\nThis could cause problems if these trends combine with the potential tapering of the Fed's unprecedented bond-buying program, Neuhauser suggested.\n“That is going to have the potential at least to start to rerate markets, which look extremely frothy. Ultimately, that is what you have to focus on as an investor,” he said.\n“You have to look at the numbers and you can push them off to the side, but you can’t do that if you start to see more consistent hotter numbers running forward.”\nCommodities ‘supercycle’\nNeuhauser’s fund is now largely focused on commodities, banks and industrials, as he believes commodities are in the start of a new “supercycle” — a decades-long period in which commodity prices remain above long-term trends.\n“We have seen (fewer) mines being built, we have seen oil and gas see capex (capital expenditure) being pulled away as banks aren’t lending anymore, you are seeing ESG initiatives make front and center stage when it comes to board meetings,” he said.\n“I think there has been this structural shift where you have not seen capital, capital has been starved to the complex and ultimately you have a dollar that is looking to potentially fall apart.”\nThis shift means commodities are the place to be for investors over the next three to five years, he argued.\n“We are playing that in terms of some of the smaller cap free cash flow or cash flow businesses out there,” he said.\n“A lot of it is in Europe and a lot of it is international, so I think Europe is going to outperform the U.S. as we go forward and that is where most of our capital is actually at Livermore, in a lot of these European stocks tied to mining.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}