tay931888 personal page - To The Moon

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2022-03-04

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2022-03-01

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Unusual Movement | Nasdaq Turns Rising! New energy vehicle stocks rallied, with Li Auto rising over 10%.

2022-02-28

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2022-02-26

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2022-02-24

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2022-02-24

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It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

2022-02-23

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2022-02-22

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2022-02-21

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Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?

2022-02-21

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2022-02-20

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Do Hong Kong stocks deserve our gentle treatment?

2022-02-19

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Ford Motor Company surged in the short term amid reports that it is considering spinning off its electric vehicle or gas engine divisions.

2022-02-19

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Roblox fell more than 10% intraday, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the earnings report

2022-02-19

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Reminder: US stocks will be closed on February 21 for Washington's birthday.

2022-02-18

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The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up oil prices, and the United States may see a resurgence of the "oil gold rush".

2022-02-18

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23:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Unusual Movement | Nasdaq Turns Rising! New energy vehicle stocks rallied, with Li Auto rising over 10%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122487527","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On February 28, the Nasdaq rebounded after falling nearly 1%. As of now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.95%, and the S&P 500 is down 0.66%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544bbfdf47cab414ffe02f1ec3d5c59b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US-listed new energy vehicle concept stocks continued to rise.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It rose more than 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff49a91e2bf49c78e28804aef792155\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unusual Movement | Nasdaq Turns Rising! New energy vehicle stocks rallied, with Li Auto rising over 10%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnusual Movement | Nasdaq Turns Rising! New energy vehicle stocks rallied, with Li Auto rising over 10%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-28 23:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On February 28, the Nasdaq rebounded after falling nearly 1%. As of now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.95%, and the S&P 500 is down 0.66%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544bbfdf47cab414ffe02f1ec3d5c59b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>US-listed new energy vehicle concept stocks continued to rise.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose more than 10%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Automobiles rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 6%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It rose more than 3%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cff49a91e2bf49c78e28804aef792155\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd3ac286c2233d10a592ba6c388667fb","relate_stocks":{"161028":"新能源车","399417":"新能源车",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK1588":"回港中概股","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK1587":"次新股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","03086":"华夏纳指","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","LI":"理想汽车","BK1575":"同股不同权"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122487527","content_text":"2月28日，纳指转涨，此前跌近1%。截至目前，道指下跌0.95%，标普500指数下跌0.66%。美股新能源车概念股持续走高，理想汽车涨超10%，蔚来汽车涨超7%，特斯拉涨超6%，小鹏汽车涨超3%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161028":0.9,"399417":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"02015":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"03086":0.9,"LI":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039870444,"gmtCreate":1646009466093,"gmtModify":1676534081559,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039870444","repostId":"2214132600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030728546,"gmtCreate":1645830673015,"gmtModify":1676534067379,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030728546","repostId":"1150139995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030692015,"gmtCreate":1645702048673,"gmtModify":1676534055101,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030692015","repostId":"1153372780","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030324389,"gmtCreate":1645652220963,"gmtModify":1676534048140,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp; Ok","listText":"&nbsp; Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030324389","repostId":"2213496312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213496312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645586061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213496312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-23 11:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213496312","media":"熊园观察","summary":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Event: On February 21 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. Global stock markets plummeted, while crude oil and gold prices surged.</p><p>Key conclusions:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war.</p><p>2. Learning from history, the performance patterns of major asset classes after geopolitical conflicts: In the short term, it will be negative for risky assets and beneficial for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the current Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>Regarding the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be wary of the derivative risks that sanctions against Russia could lead to rising commodity prices. Regarding asset prices: Based on the aforementioned experience, if we only consider this conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after a month, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. Prices of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions. Regarding global inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, including: 1) US inflation remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed; 2) For China, according to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that CPI will remain low at the beginning and high at the end of the year, and rising oil prices will not be able to change the downward trend of PPI. 3) Given that rising oil prices have a significantly greater impact on PPI than on CPI, this will disrupt the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap in my country, and will also disrupt the pace of upstream and downstream transmission of corporate profits. Regarding the Fed's rate hike pace: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will exacerbate uncertainty in the global economic outlook and increase downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Fed's rate hike pace. In fact, since mid-February, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have begun to cool. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a long history, with the core differences being \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO.\" In mid-January 2022, Russia held talks with the United States, NATO, and the OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but without achieving significant results. After a month of negotiations, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping forces\" to enter the region, greatly increasing the possibility of the conflict between the two sides escalating into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned that it was prepared to impose more sanctions if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Learning from history, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: Short-term negative impact on risky assets, positive impact on safe-haven assets and resource commodities, but weak medium- to long-term impact.</p><p>For better comparison, we selected five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers since 2000 as our analysis objects, including the Afghanistan War in 2001, the Iraq War in 2003, the Libyan War and the Syrian War in 2011, and the Crimean referendum in 2014. The performance of various asset prices during the outbreak of these conflicts is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: US stocks generally fell in the short term, with the decline lasting generally 10-30 days, before resuming their upward trend. A-shares have mostly risen in the short term, but there is no consistent pattern in their medium- to long-term trends. The divergence between A-shares and US stocks is partly due to the fact that none of the recent rounds of geopolitical conflicts involved China, and partly because the correlation between A-shares and US stocks was relatively low before 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds generally declined in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, before continuing to decline after a brief rebound; The yield on 10-year Chinese bonds has mostly declined in the short term, and its medium- to long-term trend is likely to fluctuate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index experienced three sustained declines, one sustained rise, and one period of slight fluctuation;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold experienced two consecutive declines, two consecutive rises, and one initial decline followed by a rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices have generally risen in the short term, with the range of increases also ranging from 10 to 30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p>Copper: Copper prices have mostly fallen in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of patterns: In summary, geopolitical conflicts can negatively impact risky assets in the short term, while benefiting safe-haven assets and energy commodities. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is relatively weak.</p><p>3. Four scenarios for the impact of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike.</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will likely face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total imports and exports of goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and its direct impact on the global economy and trade is expected to be limited. However, given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, we need to be wary of the risks arising from sanctions against Russia leading to rising commodity prices. For example, in 2020, Russia exported approximately 1999 billion cubic meters of natural gas, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports. Of this, about 80% was exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of Europe's natural gas imports. If the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues and the US and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further exacerbate the natural gas shortage in Europe, thereby dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Based on the above analysis, if the fire in eastern Ukraine on February 17 is taken as the starting point of the conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will continue to decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, a month later, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to escalate, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, but it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in my country's PPI.</p><p>US inflation: Remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed. In our previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is significantly affected by energy prices. According to rough estimates, assuming that oil prices average $105 per barrel over the next 1-3 months, the US CPI will further rise to around 8% year-on-year in February-March. If oil prices cannot fall quickly, the turning point in US inflation may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Looking ahead to the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: Oil prices mainly affect two sub-items of CPI: residential hydroelectric fuel and transportation fuel. If oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Considering the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to $92.7 per barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Taking into account the base, changes in food and non-food prices, the CPI is expected to rebound slightly year-on-year in February. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and under the baseline scenario, the central level for the whole year may be higher than 2.0%.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil prices mainly affect the PPI sub-items such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing. According to the model, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the PPI sub-items of oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical industry, and chemical fiber by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0, and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. Considering that the above-mentioned sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5%, and 0.8% of the PPI, respectively, it can be converted to a 10% year-on-year increase in oil prices, which may drive up the PPI by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices are expected to drive up the PPI by about 1.9 percentage points in February; Taking into account the base and changes in other industrial product prices, the year-on-year PPI in February may still decline slightly. Looking at the whole year, as the PPI base rebounds month by month, rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturbing the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. Based on the previous calculations, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than that of CPI; Therefore, rising oil prices may disrupt both the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap and the pace of upstream and downstream profit transmission. Specifically, upstream profitability is likely to remain at a high level in the short term, while the uncertainty of improving profitability in the midstream and downstream sectors is increasing. From an industry perspective, the profits of industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemicals, and chemical fibers are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of the rubber and plastics industry are negatively correlated with oil prices. If oil prices remain high, the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction may be supported, and the suppression on the rubber and plastics industry may continue. (See the previous report \"2022 Profits Will Be Transmitted to Upstream and Downstream Sectors—Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissors Difference\" for details)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the pace of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflation inflection point, but the current Fed rate hike expectations have fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, which will constrain the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Overall, interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, market expectations for rate hike in March have decreased from 1.7 to 1.2, and for rate hike throughout the year from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that expectations for rate hike have begun to cool down. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is evolving beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589878828889","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">熊园观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-23 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Event: On February 21 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. Global stock markets plummeted, while crude oil and gold prices surged.</p><p>Key conclusions:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war.</p><p>2. Learning from history, the performance patterns of major asset classes after geopolitical conflicts: In the short term, it will be negative for risky assets and beneficial for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the current Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>Regarding the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be wary of the derivative risks that sanctions against Russia could lead to rising commodity prices. Regarding asset prices: Based on the aforementioned experience, if we only consider this conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after a month, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. Prices of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions. Regarding global inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, including: 1) US inflation remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed; 2) For China, according to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that CPI will remain low at the beginning and high at the end of the year, and rising oil prices will not be able to change the downward trend of PPI. 3) Given that rising oil prices have a significantly greater impact on PPI than on CPI, this will disrupt the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap in my country, and will also disrupt the pace of upstream and downstream transmission of corporate profits. Regarding the Fed's rate hike pace: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will exacerbate uncertainty in the global economic outlook and increase downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Fed's rate hike pace. In fact, since mid-February, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have begun to cool. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a long history, with the core differences being \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO.\" In mid-January 2022, Russia held talks with the United States, NATO, and the OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but without achieving significant results. After a month of negotiations, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping forces\" to enter the region, greatly increasing the possibility of the conflict between the two sides escalating into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned that it was prepared to impose more sanctions if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Learning from history, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: Short-term negative impact on risky assets, positive impact on safe-haven assets and resource commodities, but weak medium- to long-term impact.</p><p>For better comparison, we selected five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers since 2000 as our analysis objects, including the Afghanistan War in 2001, the Iraq War in 2003, the Libyan War and the Syrian War in 2011, and the Crimean referendum in 2014. The performance of various asset prices during the outbreak of these conflicts is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: US stocks generally fell in the short term, with the decline lasting generally 10-30 days, before resuming their upward trend. A-shares have mostly risen in the short term, but there is no consistent pattern in their medium- to long-term trends. The divergence between A-shares and US stocks is partly due to the fact that none of the recent rounds of geopolitical conflicts involved China, and partly because the correlation between A-shares and US stocks was relatively low before 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds generally declined in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, before continuing to decline after a brief rebound; The yield on 10-year Chinese bonds has mostly declined in the short term, and its medium- to long-term trend is likely to fluctuate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index experienced three sustained declines, one sustained rise, and one period of slight fluctuation;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold experienced two consecutive declines, two consecutive rises, and one initial decline followed by a rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices have generally risen in the short term, with the range of increases also ranging from 10 to 30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p>Copper: Copper prices have mostly fallen in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of patterns: In summary, geopolitical conflicts can negatively impact risky assets in the short term, while benefiting safe-haven assets and energy commodities. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is relatively weak.</p><p>3. Four scenarios for the impact of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike.</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will likely face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total imports and exports of goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and its direct impact on the global economy and trade is expected to be limited. However, given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, we need to be wary of the risks arising from sanctions against Russia leading to rising commodity prices. For example, in 2020, Russia exported approximately 1999 billion cubic meters of natural gas, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports. Of this, about 80% was exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of Europe's natural gas imports. If the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues and the US and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further exacerbate the natural gas shortage in Europe, thereby dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Based on the above analysis, if the fire in eastern Ukraine on February 17 is taken as the starting point of the conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will continue to decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, a month later, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to escalate, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, but it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in my country's PPI.</p><p>US inflation: Remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed. In our previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is significantly affected by energy prices. According to rough estimates, assuming that oil prices average $105 per barrel over the next 1-3 months, the US CPI will further rise to around 8% year-on-year in February-March. If oil prices cannot fall quickly, the turning point in US inflation may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Looking ahead to the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: Oil prices mainly affect two sub-items of CPI: residential hydroelectric fuel and transportation fuel. If oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Considering the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to $92.7 per barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Taking into account the base, changes in food and non-food prices, the CPI is expected to rebound slightly year-on-year in February. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and under the baseline scenario, the central level for the whole year may be higher than 2.0%.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil prices mainly affect the PPI sub-items such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing. According to the model, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the PPI sub-items of oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical industry, and chemical fiber by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0, and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. Considering that the above-mentioned sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5%, and 0.8% of the PPI, respectively, it can be converted to a 10% year-on-year increase in oil prices, which may drive up the PPI by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices are expected to drive up the PPI by about 1.9 percentage points in February; Taking into account the base and changes in other industrial product prices, the year-on-year PPI in February may still decline slightly. Looking at the whole year, as the PPI base rebounds month by month, rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturbing the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. Based on the previous calculations, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than that of CPI; Therefore, rising oil prices may disrupt both the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap and the pace of upstream and downstream profit transmission. Specifically, upstream profitability is likely to remain at a high level in the short term, while the uncertainty of improving profitability in the midstream and downstream sectors is increasing. From an industry perspective, the profits of industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemicals, and chemical fibers are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of the rubber and plastics industry are negatively correlated with oil prices. If oil prices remain high, the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction may be supported, and the suppression on the rubber and plastics industry may continue. (See the previous report \"2022 Profits Will Be Transmitted to Upstream and Downstream Sectors—Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissors Difference\" for details)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the pace of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflation inflection point, but the current Fed rate hike expectations have fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, which will constrain the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Overall, interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, market expectations for rate hike in March have decreased from 1.7 to 1.2, and for rate hike throughout the year from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that expectations for rate hike have begun to cool down. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is evolving beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565\">熊园观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bc03fbf058ce151dd2a13f771bc11dc","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UNG":"美国天然气基金","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UGAZ":"三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213496312","content_text":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。正文如下：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"IAU":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"MGCmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"QID":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"DUG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"UNG":0.6,"USO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"CLmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"DWT":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UGAZ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097752910,"gmtCreate":1645573006770,"gmtModify":1676534040192,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097752910","repostId":"2213998229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"lang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😌😌😌","listText":"Good 😌😌😌","text":"Good 😌😌😌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097555789","repostId":"2213860349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097616062,"gmtCreate":1645439670099,"gmtModify":1676534027744,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097616062","repostId":"2212677275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2212677275","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645411504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212677275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 10:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212677275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, expectations of aggressive rate hike have surged, and Wall Street analysts are pondering one question: How will US stocks react during this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The latest report points out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has consistently delivered positive returns over the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>However, this almost only occurs during periods of accelerated economic growth. Since 1950, when economic recovery has slowed, returns have remained flat or declined.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the coming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk.<b>Current valuations in the US stock market are relatively high.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 index before this first rate hike was more expensive than in any other rate hike cycle except the period 1999-2000.</p><p>To make matters worse, the actual interest cost of this debt is negative, compared to the cost of equity in 1999. During this cycle, the Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points, and the market rose as it rose, but the S&P 500 peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Given these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures have already reflected at least two interest rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is siding with the bear market this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternative stocks performed the worst, while cyclical stocks performed the best.</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that, in terms of industry sectors, bond alternatives performed the worst, while cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond alternatives such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have underperformed the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionaries sector has outperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed other sectors, but it currently faces risks from high labor intensity and wage pressures.</p><p><b>Other industries that have performed well historically include technology, energy, materials, and daily consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>However, in rate hike cycles, industry alpha is more discrete, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>During the year the Federal Reserve began its rate hike, stock market factors performed well with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net asset value per share. Low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow outperformed the broader market in each cycle, with stocks with low net asset value per share outperforming the market in 80% of cases. Measured by these indicators, the currently lower-priced industries are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks</p><p>Bank of America believes that a company's outstanding shares are also a good measure of its performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically perform well in the months before a rate hike begins, but slightly weaker after a rate hike begins.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are currently cheaper than large-cap stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>P/E for small-cap stocks typically rise 5-6% in the first three months of a rate hike and fall 8% during the rally. However, the Russell 2000 P/E has fallen 12% since last November, the lowest level relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>Meanwhile, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and 10-year changes (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and changes in Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also pointed out that faster tightening will not be more detrimental to small businesses, and there is no correlation between the speed of rate hike and relative scale performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during periods of balance sheet contraction, history shows that stocks > bonds, value stocks > growth stocks, and large-cap stocks = small-cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, expectations of aggressive rate hike have surged, and Wall Street analysts are pondering one question: How will US stocks react during this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The latest report points out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has consistently delivered positive returns over the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>However, this almost only occurs during periods of accelerated economic growth. Since 1950, when economic recovery has slowed, returns have remained flat or declined.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the coming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk.<b>Current valuations in the US stock market are relatively high.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 index before this first rate hike was more expensive than in any other rate hike cycle except the period 1999-2000.</p><p>To make matters worse, the actual interest cost of this debt is negative, compared to the cost of equity in 1999. During this cycle, the Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points, and the market rose as it rose, but the S&P 500 peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Given these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures have already reflected at least two interest rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is siding with the bear market this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternative stocks performed the worst, while cyclical stocks performed the best.</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that, in terms of industry sectors, bond alternatives performed the worst, while cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond alternatives such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have underperformed the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionaries sector has outperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed other sectors, but it currently faces risks from high labor intensity and wage pressures.</p><p><b>Other industries that have performed well historically include technology, energy, materials, and daily consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>However, in rate hike cycles, industry alpha is more discrete, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>During the year the Federal Reserve began its rate hike, stock market factors performed well with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net asset value per share. Low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow outperformed the broader market in each cycle, with stocks with low net asset value per share outperforming the market in 80% of cases. Measured by these indicators, the currently lower-priced industries are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks</p><p>Bank of America believes that a company's outstanding shares are also a good measure of its performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically perform well in the months before a rate hike begins, but slightly weaker after a rate hike begins.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are currently cheaper than large-cap stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>P/E for small-cap stocks typically rise 5-6% in the first three months of a rate hike and fall 8% during the rally. However, the Russell 2000 P/E has fallen 12% since last November, the lowest level relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>Meanwhile, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and 10-year changes (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and changes in Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also pointed out that faster tightening will not be more detrimental to small businesses, and there is no correlation between the speed of rate hike and relative scale performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during periods of balance sheet contraction, history shows that stocks > bonds, value stocks > growth stocks, and large-cap stocks = small-cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212677275","content_text":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。小盘股表现优于大盘股美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票>债券，价值股>成长股，大盘股=小盘股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"BAC":0.73,"ESmain":0.85,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097158476,"gmtCreate":1645399880633,"gmtModify":1676534023368,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097158476","repostId":"1150820641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097307460,"gmtCreate":1645326738946,"gmtModify":1676534019091,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097307460","repostId":"1198166588","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198166588","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645314743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198166588?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-20 07:52","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Do Hong Kong stocks deserve our gentle treatment?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198166588","media":"兴证资管","summary":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after valuations fall to historical lows (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary. With Hong Kong stock valuations already at historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks is actually not very meaningful for investment. Recently, Wang Delun's team at Xingzheng Asset Management published an article pointing out that as one of the few \"low-lying areas\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks deserve investors to spend more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Wang Delun stated that the common bearish logic surrounding Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that when the price-to-book ratio of Hong Kong stocks is around 1 or below, a rebound will follow, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If we were to select the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks might have a place. Throughout 2021, the Hang Seng Index plummeted by 15%, underperforming A-shares and far underperforming major stock indices such as the US and Europe. Looking further at the performance of major sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the declines in some sectors can be described as \"far ahead of others\". For example, the Hong Kong-listed technology sector fell by as much as 33%, while the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively. Other sectors such as real estate and construction and consumer staples also fell by more than 10%. The continuous decline over the past year has filled the Hong Kong stock market with pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic correction, how should we view Hong Kong stocks from the current perspective?<b>According to micro-surveys conducted by some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A simple summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"Fed rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"10-year US Treasury yields rally will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and \"RMB exchange rate depreciation will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", while others suggest that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged into the 'deep sea' due to the collapse of US stocks\". Are these \"reasons\" for being bearish on Hong Kong stocks truly valid? We don't actually need to delve into the logical chain involved; we can get a glimpse of this by simply looking back at historical data.</p><p>The argument that \"Fed rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is not true based on historical data. We see,<b>Hong Kong stocks surged throughout the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006. Similarly, Hong Kong stocks also rose throughout the four rate hike by the Federal Reserve from 2016 to 2017. Based on experience, the Fed's rate hike seems to be the logic behind being bullish rather than bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The logic that \"an upward trend in the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the performance of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks over the past 10 years reveals that the latter repeatedly rose sharply during the former's period of significant upward movement.<b>Typical examples are 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The argument that \"a depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" remains unfounded.</b>We may be used to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rates. But in reality, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the weakening of the RMB exchange rate and the rise of Hong Kong stocks continued to \"coexist\". Conversely, we can also see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating steadily, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate cannot serve as the core logical support for judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially for predicting that Hong Kong stocks will weaken. Like them,<b>US stocks cannot be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong and US stocks over the past 10 years reveals that they have frequently diverged and diverged.<b>When US stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily rise; When US stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't follow suit.</b>Of course, if it is determined that the US stock market is about to collapse, then the Hong Kong stock market will generally suffer more. But the premise is, will the US stock market crash? Over the past 10 years, being bearish on US stocks and bearish on domestic housing prices have been the two viewpoints that are most easily and frequently refuted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A simple review of historical data reveals that the common bearish logic surrounding Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We will continue to use the method of historical summary and generalization, without discussing specific logic.<b>Let's review the trend of Hong Kong stocks simply from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after valuations fall to historical lows (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when Hong Kong stock valuations have fallen to historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks is actually not very meaningful for investment.</b>As one of the few \"low-lying areas\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks deserve more time to study and explore investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, while major global stock indices have continued to adjust, Hong Kong stocks have risen against the trend, which is enough to warrant our attention and seriousness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investing involves risk; decisions should be made with caution. The views expressed in this article represent only current judgments on the macro market and may be adjusted as the market environment changes. They do not constitute any relevant investment advice or predictions for any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645314773710","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Do Hong Kong stocks deserve our gentle treatment?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDo Hong Kong stocks deserve our gentle treatment?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">兴证资管</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-20 07:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Experience shows that after valuations fall to historical lows (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary. With Hong Kong stock valuations already at historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks is actually not very meaningful for investment. Recently, Wang Delun's team at Xingzheng Asset Management published an article pointing out that as one of the few \"low-lying areas\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks deserve investors to spend more time researching and exploring investment opportunities in 2022. Wang Delun stated that the common bearish logic surrounding Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. On the contrary, historical experience shows that when the price-to-book ratio of Hong Kong stocks is around 1 or below, a rebound will follow, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary.</p><p><b>The original text is as follows:</b></p><p>If we were to select the \"worst\" stock market in the world in 2021, Hong Kong stocks might have a place. Throughout 2021, the Hang Seng Index plummeted by 15%, underperforming A-shares and far underperforming major stock indices such as the US and Europe. Looking further at the performance of major sectors in Hong Kong stocks, the declines in some sectors can be described as \"far ahead of others\". For example, the Hong Kong-listed technology sector fell by as much as 33%, while the information technology and healthcare sectors fell by 32% and 28% respectively. Other sectors such as real estate and construction and consumer staples also fell by more than 10%. The continuous decline over the past year has filled the Hong Kong stock market with pessimism.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e16de25a7662ff656796effd5cba8f6\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>After nearly a year of drastic correction, how should we view Hong Kong stocks from the current perspective?<b>According to micro-surveys conducted by some institutions, pessimism still dominates.</b>A simple summary of the \"reasons\" for continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks includes arguments such as \"Fed rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", \"10-year US Treasury yields rally will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", and \"RMB exchange rate depreciation will suppress Hong Kong stocks\", while others suggest that \"Hong Kong stocks will be dragged into the 'deep sea' due to the collapse of US stocks\". Are these \"reasons\" for being bearish on Hong Kong stocks truly valid? We don't actually need to delve into the logical chain involved; we can get a glimpse of this by simply looking back at historical data.</p><p>The argument that \"Fed rate hike will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is not true based on historical data. We see,<b>Hong Kong stocks surged throughout the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle from 2004 to 2006. Similarly, Hong Kong stocks also rose throughout the four rate hike by the Federal Reserve from 2016 to 2017. Based on experience, the Fed's rate hike seems to be the logic behind being bullish rather than bearish on Hong Kong stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f33521bdfab4f65c554ac337546e54bf\" tg-width=\"1408\" tg-height=\"854\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The logic that \"an upward trend in the 10Y US Treasury yields will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" is not supported by historical data.</b>A simple comparison of the performance of US Treasury yields and Hong Kong stocks over the past 10 years reveals that the latter repeatedly rose sharply during the former's period of significant upward movement.<b>Typical examples are 2007, the second half of 2009, the second half of 2012 to 2013, the second quarter of 2015, the fourth quarter of 2016, and the first quarter of 2020 to 2021.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfd6e0f890cf712b65edfd5282732be\" tg-width=\"1398\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>The argument that \"a depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will suppress Hong Kong stocks\" remains unfounded.</b>We may be used to judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks from the perspective of exchange rates. But in reality, the relationship between them is very unstable. For example, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the second quarter of 2015, while the RMB exchange rate continued to weaken, Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Similarly, from the second quarter of 2016 to the second quarter of 2017, the weakening of the RMB exchange rate and the rise of Hong Kong stocks continued to \"coexist\". Conversely, we can also see that,<b>Since the second half of 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been appreciating steadily, while Hong Kong stocks have \"risen first and then fallen\".</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fac960f3949470544e6418cc733fd9\" tg-width=\"1452\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Federal Reserve rate hike, the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yields, and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate cannot serve as the core logical support for judging the trend of Hong Kong stocks, especially for predicting that Hong Kong stocks will weaken. Like them,<b>US stocks cannot be simply used to judge the trend of Hong Kong stocks.</b>A brief review of the performance of Hong Kong and US stocks over the past 10 years reveals that they have frequently diverged and diverged.<b>When US stocks rise, Hong Kong stocks may not necessarily rise; When US stocks fall, Hong Kong stocks often don't follow suit.</b>Of course, if it is determined that the US stock market is about to collapse, then the Hong Kong stock market will generally suffer more. But the premise is, will the US stock market crash? Over the past 10 years, being bearish on US stocks and bearish on domestic housing prices have been the two viewpoints that are most easily and frequently refuted.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6a931c95ea1e4226c697f2f7e0e869f\" tg-width=\"1448\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A simple review of historical data reveals that the common bearish logic surrounding Hong Kong stocks is not supported by historical data. We will continue to use the method of historical summary and generalization, without discussing specific logic.<b>Let's review the trend of Hong Kong stocks simply from the perspective of Hong Kong stock valuation. Experience shows that after valuations fall to historical lows (PB is around 1 or below), Hong Kong stocks will rebound, although the timing and magnitude of each rebound vary.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706504053c2b9738cc7ba401565068b3\" tg-width=\"1428\" tg-height=\"668\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Historical experience tells us that when Hong Kong stock valuations have fallen to historical lows, continuing to be bearish on Hong Kong stocks is actually not very meaningful for investment.</b>As one of the few \"low-lying areas\" in the world, Hong Kong stocks deserve more time to study and explore investment opportunities in 2022. Since the beginning of 2022, while major global stock indices have continued to adjust, Hong Kong stocks have risen against the trend, which is enough to warrant our attention and seriousness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f867862f845af52bc191d2a119d08a\" tg-width=\"1388\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk warning: Investing involves risk; decisions should be made with caution. The views expressed in this article represent only current judgments on the macro market and may be adjusted as the market environment changes. They do not constitute any relevant investment advice or predictions for any information screen audience.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344\">兴证资管</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652344","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198166588","content_text":"经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。近日，兴证资管王德伦团队发文指出，作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得投资者花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。王德伦表示，当前常见的看空港股逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。反而是，历史经验显示，港股PB在1附近或以下，随后都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。原文如下：如果要评选2021年全球“最惨”的股票市场，港股可能有“一席之地”。2021年全年，恒生指数大跌15%，表现不及A股，并远差于美股及欧洲等主要股指。进一步看港股中主要板块的表现，部分板块的跌幅也可谓“一骑绝尘”。比如，港股科技板块跌幅高达33%，信息技术、医疗保健板块跌幅分别达到32%、28%，其他的如地产建筑、必选消费等板块跌幅也超过10%。近1年的跌跌不休，使港股市场充斥着悲观情绪。经历了近1年的剧烈调整后，站在当前时点，我们应该怎么看待港股？从部分机构的微观调研情况来看，悲观情绪依然占据主导。简单汇总继续看空港股的“理由”，既有“美联储加息会打压港股”、“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”、“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”等论调，也有观点提出“港股会因为美股崩盘而被拖下‘深海’”。这些看空港股的“理由”，是否真的成立？对此，我们实际上不必深纠里面的逻辑链条，只需要简单回溯历史数据，便能一窥究竟。“美联储加息会打压港股”，这一论调，从历史数据来看，并不成立。我们看到，2004年至2006年的美联储加息周期中，港股一路大涨。同样的，2016年至2017年，美联储前后4次加息中，港股也一路上涨。总结经验来看，美联储加息，似乎可以成为看多、而非看空港股的逻辑。“10Y美债利率上行会打压港股”，这一逻辑，也没有历史数据的支持。简单比较10Y美债利率和港股的走势，可以发现，后者多次在前者大幅上行期间，一路大涨。典型的有，2007年、2009年下半年、2012年下半年至2013年、2015年2季度、2016年4季度，以及2020年至2021年1季度。“人民币汇率趋于贬值会打压港股”，这一论调，依然不成立。我们可能习惯于从汇率角度，去判断港股走势。但实际上，它们之间的关系，非常不稳定。比如，2013年4季度至2015年2季度，人民币汇率持续走弱的同时，港股出现大幅上涨。同样的，2016年2季度至2017年2季度，人民币汇率走弱和港股上涨，持续“共存”。相反，我们也可以看到，2020年下半年至今，人民币汇率一路升值，而港股“先涨后跌”。美联储加息、10Y美债利率上行、人民币汇率贬值，都无法成为判断港股走势、尤其是判定港股将走弱的核心逻辑支撑。与它们一样，美股，也不能简单用于判断港股的走势。简单回顾过去10年港股和美股的表现，能非常容易地发现，它们频繁分化、背离。美股涨的时候，港股不一定涨；美股跌的时候，港股很多时候也不会“跟”。当然，如果认定美股要崩盘，那港股一般会比较难受。但前提是，美股会崩盘吗？过去10年，看空美股和看空国内房价，一直是最容易、最高频被“打脸”的两个观点。简单回顾历史数据，就能直观地发现，当前常见的看空港股的逻辑，都没有历史数据的支持。我们沿用历史归纳总结的方法，不讨论具体逻辑，简单从港股估值角度出发，回顾港股走势。经验显示，估值掉至历史低位（PB在1附近或以下）后，港股接下来都会迎来反弹，尽管每轮反弹的时间、幅度不一。历史经验告诉了我们，在港股估值已经跌至历史低位的情况下，继续看空港股，对投资实际上已经没有太多意义。作为目前全球少有的“洼地”，港股2022年，值得我们花更多时间研究、挖掘投资机会。2022年初至今，全球主要股指持续调整之际，港股“逆势”上涨，已经足够值得我们重视和认真对待。风险提示：投资有风险，决策需谨慎。本文所表达观点仅代表对宏观市场的当期判断，可能随市场环境变化而产生调整，不构成任何信息屏受众群体的任何相关投资建议与预测。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094423621,"gmtCreate":1645225659573,"gmtModify":1676534009660,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094423621","repostId":"1139808170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139808170","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645198328,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1139808170?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-18 23:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ford Motor Company surged in the short term amid reports that it is considering spinning off its electric vehicle or gas engine divisions.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139808170","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，福特汽车短线拉升，截至发稿涨超4%。市场消息称，福特汽车CEO考虑通过多种方式让电动汽车业务单独运作，包括分拆电动车或燃气发动机业务部门。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The price surged in the short term, rising more than 4% as of press time. Market sources say that Ford's CEO is considering several ways to make the electric vehicle business operate independently, including spinning off the electric vehicle or gas engine business units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd55986c14981565e24801f5b23094e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Motor Company surged in the short term amid reports that it is considering spinning off its electric vehicle or gas engine divisions.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Motor Company surged in the short term amid reports that it is considering spinning off its electric vehicle or gas engine divisions.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-18 23:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The price surged in the short term, rising more than 4% as of press time. Market sources say that Ford's CEO is considering several ways to make the electric vehicle business operate independently, including spinning off the electric vehicle or gas engine business units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd55986c14981565e24801f5b23094e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27c1c8aa54c63bbf415c36a2121f812","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139808170","content_text":"周五，福特汽车短线拉升，截至发稿涨超4%。市场消息称，福特汽车CEO考虑通过多种方式让电动汽车业务单独运作，包括分拆电动车或燃气发动机业务部门。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094423995,"gmtCreate":1645225537843,"gmtModify":1676534009652,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094423995","repostId":"1129539472","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129539472","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645200464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129539472?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-19 00:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Roblox fell more than 10% intraday, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the earnings report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129539472","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2021年，Roblox全年营收为19.2亿美元，按年增长108%，净亏损高达4.9亿美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, Roblox, the \"first stock in the metaverse\", fell by more than 10% in the intraday session, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the company's results were released.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da85cc8b7c3c4f15bb86458d0246383\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The company's fourth-quarter earnings report showed that the company's revenue for the period was $568 million, an increase of 83% year-on-year, but its net loss further widened to $143 million, much higher than $58.7 million in the same period in 2020. Looking at the full-year data, in 2021, Roblox's full-year revenue was $1.92 billion, up 108% year-on-year, and its net loss was as high as $490 million.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Roblox fell more than 10% intraday, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the earnings report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRoblox fell more than 10% intraday, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the earnings report\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-19 00:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On Friday, Roblox, the \"first stock in the metaverse\", fell by more than 10% in the intraday session, and its target price was lowered by many major banks after the company's results were released.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8da85cc8b7c3c4f15bb86458d0246383\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The company's fourth-quarter earnings report showed that the company's revenue for the period was $568 million, an increase of 83% year-on-year, but its net loss further widened to $143 million, much higher than $58.7 million in the same period in 2020. Looking at the full-year data, in 2021, Roblox's full-year revenue was $1.92 billion, up 108% year-on-year, and its net loss was as high as $490 million.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae0dbbdc0d8bd289953c63fd3e803da5","relate_stocks":{"RBLX":"Roblox Corporation"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129539472","content_text":"周五，“元宇宙第一股”Roblox盘中跌超10%，公司业绩发布后遭多家大行下调目标价。四季度财报显示，该公司期内收入为5.68亿美元，按年增长83%，但净亏损进一步扩大至1.43亿美元，远高于2020年同期的5870万美元。从全年数据来看，2021年，Roblox全年营收为19.2亿美元，按年增长108%，净亏损高达4.9亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RBLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1956,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094429519,"gmtCreate":1645225481865,"gmtModify":1676534009645,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094429519","repostId":"1157712278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157712278","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645065627,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157712278?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on February 21 for Washington's birthday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157712278","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Monday, February 21, marks Washington's birthday in the United States, and U.S. financial markets, including the stock and bond markets, will be closed for the day. U.S. stocks resumed normal trading on Tuesday, February 22.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, UK stocks, Macau stocks, and Singapore stocks remained open as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Washington's birthday is commonly known as President's Day.</p><p>In 1879, a bill passed by the U.S. Congress for the first time decided to list Washington's birthday as a federal holiday. The Monday Holidays Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved Washington's birthday from February 22nd to the third Monday of February. However, including this bill, no law in the United States has yet officially changed the name of \"Washington's Birthday\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day\". The situation among the public is different; a growing number of Americans have designated the third Monday in February as \"Presidents' Day.\"</p><p>Profile of George Washington:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington's full name was George Washington (February 22, 1732 – December 14, 1799). He served as Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783. In 1789, he became the first President of the United States (and also the first head of state in the world to be titled \"President\"). In two consecutive presidential elections, he received unanimous support from the entire Electoral College and served as President of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787, he presided over the U.S. Constitutional Convention, which established the basic framework for the current U.S. Constitution. During his two terms in office, he established many American policies and traditions that continue to this day. After his two terms ended, he voluntarily relinquished power and did not renew his term, establishing the tradition that the U.S. president could not serve more than two terms.</p><p>Washington then returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at the Mount Vernon estate. Because he played the most important role in the American Revolutionary War and the founding of the nation, Washington is often referred to as the Founding Father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him alongside Abraham Lincoln and others as one of the greatest presidents in American history.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stocks will be closed on February 21 for Washington's birthday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stocks will be closed on February 21 for Washington's birthday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-17 10:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Monday, February 21, marks Washington's birthday in the United States, and U.S. financial markets, including the stock and bond markets, will be closed for the day. U.S. stocks resumed normal trading on Tuesday, February 22.</p><p>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, UK stocks, Macau stocks, and Singapore stocks remained open as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p>Washington's birthday is commonly known as President's Day.</p><p>In 1879, a bill passed by the U.S. Congress for the first time decided to list Washington's birthday as a federal holiday. The Monday Holidays Act, which came into effect in 1968, moved Washington's birthday from February 22nd to the third Monday of February. However, including this bill, no law in the United States has yet officially changed the name of \"Washington's Birthday\" to what is now better known as \"President's Day\". The situation among the public is different; a growing number of Americans have designated the third Monday in February as \"Presidents' Day.\"</p><p>Profile of George Washington:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2\" tg-width=\"450\" tg-height=\"547\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One of the most common portraits of George Washington</p><p>Washington's full name was George Washington (February 22, 1732 – December 14, 1799). He served as Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army during the American Revolutionary War from 1775 to 1783. In 1789, he became the first President of the United States (and also the first head of state in the world to be titled \"President\"). In two consecutive presidential elections, he received unanimous support from the entire Electoral College and served as President of the United States until 1797.</p><p>In 1787, he presided over the U.S. Constitutional Convention, which established the basic framework for the current U.S. Constitution. During his two terms in office, he established many American policies and traditions that continue to this day. After his two terms ended, he voluntarily relinquished power and did not renew his term, establishing the tradition that the U.S. president could not serve more than two terms.</p><p>Washington then returned to civilian life and lived in seclusion at the Mount Vernon estate. Because he played the most important role in the American Revolutionary War and the founding of the nation, Washington is often referred to as the Founding Father of the United States. Most American scholars generally rank him alongside Abraham Lincoln and others as one of the greatest presidents in American history.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65cb9e79983f7b49037bed99be2c34a2","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157712278","content_text":"2月21日（周一）是美国的华盛顿诞辰纪念日，美国包括股市和债市在内的金融市场将休市一天。2月22日（周二）美股恢复正常交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡照常开市。背景简介：华盛顿诞辰纪念日俗称总统日1879年美国国会通过的一项法案首次决定将华盛顿诞辰列为联邦节日。1968年生效的《周一节假日法》则将华盛顿诞辰纪念日从每年的2月22日移到2月的第3个周一。但是，包括这一法案在内，美国迄今没有任何法律规定将“华盛顿诞辰纪念日”这一名称正式改为现在更为人所知的“总统日”。民间情况则有所不同，越来越多的美国人已将2月的第3个周一称为“总统日”。乔治-华盛顿简介：乔治-华盛顿最为常见的画像之一华盛顿全名乔治-华盛顿（英文George Washington，1732年2月22日-1799年12月14日），1775至1783年美国独立战争时他任大陆军总司令，1789年成为美国第一任总统（同时也成为全世界首位以“总统”为称号的国家元首），在接连两次总统选举中他都获得了全体选举团无异议的一致支持，一直担任美国总统直至1797年。1787年他主持美国制宪会议，制定了现在美国宪法的基本框架。他在两届任期中设立了美国许多延续至今的政策和传统。两届任期结束后，他自愿放弃权力不再续任，确立了美国总统任期不超过两届的传统。此后华盛顿回复平民生活，隐居在弗农山庄园。由于他在美国独立战争和建国过程中扮演了最重要角色，华盛顿通常被称为美国国父。美国多数学者一般将他和亚伯拉罕-林肯等并列为美国历史上最伟大的总统之一。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094600790,"gmtCreate":1645133409313,"gmtModify":1676533999884,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094600790","repostId":"2212694282","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2212694282","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645079424,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212694282?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-17 14:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up oil prices, and the United States may see a resurgence of the \"oil gold rush\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212694282","media":"智通财经网","summary":"俄乌冲突推高了油价，如果油价进一步走高，美国石油生产商可能更愿意再次开钻，这会提振美国能源产业，这又是俄罗斯所不愿意看到的，原油价格似乎成了一种政治博弈。石油作为政治武器?俄罗斯总统普京一直明确表示，","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up oil prices. If oil prices rise further, US oil producers may be more willing to drill again, which would boost oil prices.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Industry, which is something Russia does not want to see, seems to have turned crude oil prices into a political game.</p><p><b>Oil as a political weapon?</b></p><p>Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he does not like shale gas extraction in the United States. However, if Russia invades Ukraine, this could help revive the U.S. shale gas industry.</p><p>Like other global producers, the U.S. industry was devastated by the pandemic in early 2020. Oil prices plummeted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>(CME) crude oil futures prices even turned negative at one point. Now, driven by rising oil prices, the U.S. oil industry has been slowly recovering. Oil prices rose by more than 50% last year. Currently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel, reaching a seven-year high.</p><p>IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Vice Chairman Dan Yergin stated, \"The last thing Russia and Ukraine want to do is use prices to stimulate a rebound in U.S. oil and gas production. They have now successfully driven up prices, which has increased U.S. oil and gas production.\"</p><p>Russia has been Europe's largest supplier of oil and gas, and the United States has long warned that Russia's control over key energy sources could pose a threat to European consumers. Yergin stated that Putin has consistently strongly opposed U.S. shale gas, and as early as 2013, the Russian president stated at a public forum in St. Petersburg that U.S. shale gas was a serious threat.</p><p>US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that while the United States and Russia will continue to avoid military conflict through diplomatic channels, he warned that the situation remains uncertain. Russia announced on Tuesday that it would withdraw some of its troops from the Ukrainian border.</p><p>Energy is clearly at the heart of this conflict. Natural gas prices in Europe have been rising throughout the winter due to fears of supply shortages. First, the region cannot store enough natural gas. Then, Russia began cutting supplies in the fall.</p><p>Russia transports natural gas to Europe through pipelines in Ukraine and other countries, including the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, built to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, has been completed but is still awaiting German approval. Biden reiterated Tuesday that Nord Stream 2 would be banned from operation if Russia invades Ukraine.</p><p>The United States and its allies plan to impose sanctions on Russia if it invades. Analysts point out that the worst-case scenario for energy supplies is that sanctions will prevent Russia from selling energy to Europe, or that Russia will cut off energy supplies in retaliation.</p><p>Meanwhile, global oil demand has returned to normal, and with improved air travel, the International Energy Agency (IEA) had previously predicted that oil demand would increase further this year.</p><p><b>The United States dominates global energy position</b></p><p>Before the pandemic, the United States was the largest producer of oil and natural gas. Yergin stated that the U.S. energy sector has regained its global dominance and is once again the largest oil and gas producer. In addition, the United States is a major exporter. Data released weekly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that over the past four weeks, the U.S. has exported an average of 2.6 million barrels of oil per day, and 4.2 million barrels of refined oil products, including gasoline and diesel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d80ff46e9824eaf1ea5b3737738851\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The U.S. energy industry has also proven to be an important European supplier as an alternative to Russia. In January of this year, some of the liquefied natural gas shipped by the United States to Asia and Europe was diverted to Europe.</p><p>According to IHS data, European liquefied natural gas imports increased by 80% year-on-year, meaning that for the first time, the amount of natural gas supplied to Europe by the United States via sea exceeded the amount supplied to Europe by Russia via pipelines. According to calculations by IHS Markit, in January of this year, the United States shipped 7.73 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, while 7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas were transported via Russian pipelines. Qatar also ships liquefied natural gas to Europe and has the ability to increase exports.</p><p>Although American liquefied natural gas helped Europe get through the winter, it is not enough to replace Russian natural gas supplies. Europe can only process a certain amount of liquefied natural gas, and analysts say there is still a shortage of LNG.</p><p>Kpler analysts stated, \"This is the highest level of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments to Europe we've ever seen. So far this month, Europe's imports from the U.S. have remained unchanged, so we expect to reach similar levels (over 5 million tons) in February.\"</p><p>Yergin believes that Europe is a natural market for Russian natural gas. “Europe was already in an energy crisis before the Ukraine crisis. The difference now is that in 2009, Russia interrupted natural gas supplies through Ukraine. In 2009, Europe’s pipeline system was more flexible, so natural gas could be transported to various places, and there was also the development of liquefied natural gas. But five years ago, liquefied natural gas could no longer make up for Russia’s low supply.”</p><p><b>High oil prices boost US oil production</b></p><p>While U.S. oil companies are much more conservative about drilling because they are more focused on shareholders and investors are demanding that they return more money, soaring oil prices may eventually drive more drilling activity.</p><p>Yergin stated that, meanwhile, the U.S. oil industry expects to increase daily production in the tight oil market by approximately 900,000 barrels this year. The industry currently produces approximately 11.6 million barrels per day, which may recover to 13 million barrels per day before the pandemic next year.</p><p>Signs of expanding production in the U.S. oil industry are emerging in the increase in the number of drilling rigs. According to data from Baker Hughes, the total number of drilling rigs in the U.S. oil industry currently stands at 516, an increase of 19 last week, the largest increase in four years.</p><p>John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said: \"I think the Ukraine crisis has solidified the oil gold rush for all related companies, now including...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLR\">Continental energy</a>A large company like (CLR.US) just announced that its investment spending has doubled relative to its output. China's energy sector is indeed increasing its investment in production. They are willing to accept the current higher costs in order to extract more oil from underground in the short and medium term.</p><p>The United States is a major oil producer, but Russia is a larger supplier to the world market, exporting about 5 million barrels of oil per day. In the event of an invasion, any reduction in the supply of Russian oil would have global repercussions.</p><p>As demand recovers from pandemic levels, Russia and its OPEC+ partners have slowly increased production, and they should reach their production targets before the summer. But the Russian government has long been concerned about high oil prices, because higher oil prices give American producers more incentive to increase production.</p><p>If Russia reduces its crude oil exports, analysts expect Saudi Arabia to increase production. Saudi Arabia has spare capacity to extract oil that the United States does not, and American companies will need to drill new wells to produce more oil.</p><p>However, Kilduff stated that the U.S. oil industry may soon experience a surge in oil production, as oil companies have already begun drilling unfinished wells. Analysts say it was increased production from non-OPEC countries such as the United States and Brazil that prevented oil prices from rising sharply. But now that tensions in Ukraine have eased, American producers may also face challenges.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/662b0810a5e7cc39271444067522a3c0\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, said that U.S. oil production has been increasing, but U.S. companies have not yet started drilling at full speed due to pressure from shareholders. Under close scrutiny from ESG investors, companies have been paying off debt, improving Dividend, and looking for ways to reduce carbon emissions.</p><p>Pickering stated, \"Although U.S. oil producers have a relatively small number of rigs, the increase in rig numbers is significant. In my view, this reflects stronger oil prices. The slight increase in profit margins may be a combination of factors.\"</p><p>The analyst predicts that if the industry does increase drilling, the effects will appear next year, not recently. But he pointed out,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>(XOM.US) stated that it will increase production in the Permian Basin of Texas by 25% this year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>(CVX.US) also plans to increase production in the region by 10%. According to IHS, private companies have been ramping up production, typically accounting for 20% of new output, but this year that figure will reach 50%.</p><p>Kilduff pointed out that Devon Energy (DVN.US) reported better-than-expected earnings on Tuesday, another sign of increased production in the industry. The company's earnings exceeded expectations and improved its Dividend. Kilduff stated, \"For the past few years, these companies have been striving for a low-price environment, and suddenly the economic situation has become reasonable again, which has put them back on track.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up oil prices, and the United States may see a resurgence of the \"oil gold rush\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up oil prices, and the United States may see a resurgence of the \"oil gold rush\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-17 14:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed up oil prices. If oil prices rise further, US oil producers may be more willing to drill again, which would boost oil prices.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Industry, which is something Russia does not want to see, seems to have turned crude oil prices into a political game.</p><p><b>Oil as a political weapon?</b></p><p>Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear that he does not like shale gas extraction in the United States. However, if Russia invades Ukraine, this could help revive the U.S. shale gas industry.</p><p>Like other global producers, the U.S. industry was devastated by the pandemic in early 2020. Oil prices plummeted.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>(CME) crude oil futures prices even turned negative at one point. Now, driven by rising oil prices, the U.S. oil industry has been slowly recovering. Oil prices rose by more than 50% last year. Currently, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has pushed oil prices above $90 per barrel, reaching a seven-year high.</p><p>IHS<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Vice Chairman Dan Yergin stated, \"The last thing Russia and Ukraine want to do is use prices to stimulate a rebound in U.S. oil and gas production. They have now successfully driven up prices, which has increased U.S. oil and gas production.\"</p><p>Russia has been Europe's largest supplier of oil and gas, and the United States has long warned that Russia's control over key energy sources could pose a threat to European consumers. Yergin stated that Putin has consistently strongly opposed U.S. shale gas, and as early as 2013, the Russian president stated at a public forum in St. Petersburg that U.S. shale gas was a serious threat.</p><p>US President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that while the United States and Russia will continue to avoid military conflict through diplomatic channels, he warned that the situation remains uncertain. Russia announced on Tuesday that it would withdraw some of its troops from the Ukrainian border.</p><p>Energy is clearly at the heart of this conflict. Natural gas prices in Europe have been rising throughout the winter due to fears of supply shortages. First, the region cannot store enough natural gas. Then, Russia began cutting supplies in the fall.</p><p>Russia transports natural gas to Europe through pipelines in Ukraine and other countries, including the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, built to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, has been completed but is still awaiting German approval. Biden reiterated Tuesday that Nord Stream 2 would be banned from operation if Russia invades Ukraine.</p><p>The United States and its allies plan to impose sanctions on Russia if it invades. Analysts point out that the worst-case scenario for energy supplies is that sanctions will prevent Russia from selling energy to Europe, or that Russia will cut off energy supplies in retaliation.</p><p>Meanwhile, global oil demand has returned to normal, and with improved air travel, the International Energy Agency (IEA) had previously predicted that oil demand would increase further this year.</p><p><b>The United States dominates global energy position</b></p><p>Before the pandemic, the United States was the largest producer of oil and natural gas. Yergin stated that the U.S. energy sector has regained its global dominance and is once again the largest oil and gas producer. In addition, the United States is a major exporter. Data released weekly by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that over the past four weeks, the U.S. has exported an average of 2.6 million barrels of oil per day, and 4.2 million barrels of refined oil products, including gasoline and diesel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60d80ff46e9824eaf1ea5b3737738851\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The U.S. energy industry has also proven to be an important European supplier as an alternative to Russia. In January of this year, some of the liquefied natural gas shipped by the United States to Asia and Europe was diverted to Europe.</p><p>According to IHS data, European liquefied natural gas imports increased by 80% year-on-year, meaning that for the first time, the amount of natural gas supplied to Europe by the United States via sea exceeded the amount supplied to Europe by Russia via pipelines. According to calculations by IHS Markit, in January of this year, the United States shipped 7.73 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, while 7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas were transported via Russian pipelines. Qatar also ships liquefied natural gas to Europe and has the ability to increase exports.</p><p>Although American liquefied natural gas helped Europe get through the winter, it is not enough to replace Russian natural gas supplies. Europe can only process a certain amount of liquefied natural gas, and analysts say there is still a shortage of LNG.</p><p>Kpler analysts stated, \"This is the highest level of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments to Europe we've ever seen. So far this month, Europe's imports from the U.S. have remained unchanged, so we expect to reach similar levels (over 5 million tons) in February.\"</p><p>Yergin believes that Europe is a natural market for Russian natural gas. “Europe was already in an energy crisis before the Ukraine crisis. The difference now is that in 2009, Russia interrupted natural gas supplies through Ukraine. In 2009, Europe’s pipeline system was more flexible, so natural gas could be transported to various places, and there was also the development of liquefied natural gas. But five years ago, liquefied natural gas could no longer make up for Russia’s low supply.”</p><p><b>High oil prices boost US oil production</b></p><p>While U.S. oil companies are much more conservative about drilling because they are more focused on shareholders and investors are demanding that they return more money, soaring oil prices may eventually drive more drilling activity.</p><p>Yergin stated that, meanwhile, the U.S. oil industry expects to increase daily production in the tight oil market by approximately 900,000 barrels this year. The industry currently produces approximately 11.6 million barrels per day, which may recover to 13 million barrels per day before the pandemic next year.</p><p>Signs of expanding production in the U.S. oil industry are emerging in the increase in the number of drilling rigs. According to data from Baker Hughes, the total number of drilling rigs in the U.S. oil industry currently stands at 516, an increase of 19 last week, the largest increase in four years.</p><p>John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, said: \"I think the Ukraine crisis has solidified the oil gold rush for all related companies, now including...\"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLR\">Continental energy</a>A large company like (CLR.US) just announced that its investment spending has doubled relative to its output. China's energy sector is indeed increasing its investment in production. They are willing to accept the current higher costs in order to extract more oil from underground in the short and medium term.</p><p>The United States is a major oil producer, but Russia is a larger supplier to the world market, exporting about 5 million barrels of oil per day. In the event of an invasion, any reduction in the supply of Russian oil would have global repercussions.</p><p>As demand recovers from pandemic levels, Russia and its OPEC+ partners have slowly increased production, and they should reach their production targets before the summer. But the Russian government has long been concerned about high oil prices, because higher oil prices give American producers more incentive to increase production.</p><p>If Russia reduces its crude oil exports, analysts expect Saudi Arabia to increase production. Saudi Arabia has spare capacity to extract oil that the United States does not, and American companies will need to drill new wells to produce more oil.</p><p>However, Kilduff stated that the U.S. oil industry may soon experience a surge in oil production, as oil companies have already begun drilling unfinished wells. Analysts say it was increased production from non-OPEC countries such as the United States and Brazil that prevented oil prices from rising sharply. But now that tensions in Ukraine have eased, American producers may also face challenges.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/662b0810a5e7cc39271444067522a3c0\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"638\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, said that U.S. oil production has been increasing, but U.S. companies have not yet started drilling at full speed due to pressure from shareholders. Under close scrutiny from ESG investors, companies have been paying off debt, improving Dividend, and looking for ways to reduce carbon emissions.</p><p>Pickering stated, \"Although U.S. oil producers have a relatively small number of rigs, the increase in rig numbers is significant. In my view, this reflects stronger oil prices. The slight increase in profit margins may be a combination of factors.\"</p><p>The analyst predicts that if the industry does increase drilling, the effects will appear next year, not recently. But he pointed out,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XOM\">ExxonMobil</a>(XOM.US) stated that it will increase production in the Permian Basin of Texas by 25% this year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">Chevron</a>(CVX.US) also plans to increase production in the region by 10%. According to IHS, private companies have been ramping up production, typically accounting for 20% of new output, but this year that figure will reach 50%.</p><p>Kilduff pointed out that Devon Energy (DVN.US) reported better-than-expected earnings on Tuesday, another sign of increased production in the industry. The company's earnings exceeded expectations and improved its Dividend. Kilduff stated, \"For the past few years, these companies have been striving for a low-price environment, and suddenly the economic situation has become reasonable again, which has put them back on track.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/660137.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ed4a57a742eeeb6663c35adf4da75c4","relate_stocks":{"BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","CME":"芝加哥商品交易所","USO":"美国原油ETF","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","EIA":"Eaton Vance California Municip","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","IEA":"Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc.","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4129":"建筑与工程"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/660137.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2212694282","content_text":"俄乌冲突推高了油价，如果油价进一步走高，美国石油生产商可能更愿意再次开钻，这会提振美国能源产业，这又是俄罗斯所不愿意看到的，原油价格似乎成了一种政治博弈。石油作为政治武器?俄罗斯总统普京一直明确表示，他不喜欢美国的页岩气开采。但是，如果俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，这可能会帮助恢复美国页岩气业。与其他全球生产商一样，美国行业在2020年初被疫情摧毁。石油价格暴跌，芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的原油期货价格甚至一度转为负值。现在，在油价上涨的推动下，美国石油行业一直在缓慢复苏。去年油价上涨了50%以上。目前，俄乌冲突推动油价超过每桶90美元，达到7年来的高点。IHS Markit副董事长Dan  Yergin称:“俄罗斯和乌克兰最不愿意做的事就是用价格来刺激美国石油和天然气产量的反弹。他们现在成功地推高了价格，这提高了美国的石油和天然气产量。”俄罗斯一直是欧洲最大的石油和天然气供应国，美国长期以来一直警告称，俄罗斯对关键能源来源的控制可能会对欧洲消费者构成威胁。Yergin表示，普京一直强烈反对美国的页岩气，早在2013年，俄罗斯总统就在圣彼得堡的一个公共论坛上表示，美国页岩气是一个严重的威胁。美国总统拜登周二表示，虽然美国和俄罗斯将继续通过外交渠道避免军事冲突，但警告称局势仍不确定。俄罗斯周二宣布，将从乌克兰边境撤出一部分军队。能源显然是这场冲突的核心。整个冬天，由于担心供应短缺，欧洲天然气价格一直在上涨。首先，该地区无法储存足够的天然气。然后，俄罗斯从秋天开始削减了供应。俄罗斯通过乌克兰和其他国家的管道向欧洲输送天然气，其中包括北溪1号管道。北溪2号管道是为将天然气从俄罗斯输送到德国而修建的，目前已经完工，但仍在等待德国的批准。拜登周二重申，如果俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，北溪2号将被禁止运行。如果俄罗斯入侵，美国及其盟友计划对俄罗斯实施制裁。分析人士指出，能源供应的最坏情况是，制裁将阻止俄罗斯向欧洲出售能源，或者俄罗斯为了报复而切断能源供应。与此同时，全球石油需求已恢复正常，随着航空旅行的改善，此前，国际能源署(IEA)预计今年石油需求将有望进一步增加。美国主导全球能源地位在疫情之前，美国是最大的石油和天然气生产国。Yergin表示，美国能源行业已经恢复了全球主导地位，再次成为最大的石油和天然气生产国。此外，美国还是一个出口大国。美国能源情报署(EIA)每周公布的数据显示，过去四周，美国平均每天出口石油260万桶，包括汽油和柴油在内的成品油420万桶。美国能源行业也已被证明是替代俄罗斯的欧洲重要供应商。今年1月，美国运往亚洲和欧洲的液化天然气部分转向欧洲。IHS的数据显示，欧洲液化天然气进口量同比增长80%，这意味着美国通过海运向欧洲提供的天然气数量首次超过了俄罗斯通过管道向欧洲提供的天然气数量。根据IHS  Markit的计算，今年1月，美国向欧洲输送了77.3亿立方米天然气，而通过俄罗斯管道输送的天然气为75亿立方米。卡塔尔也将液化天然气运往欧洲，并有能力增加出口。虽然美国的液化天然气帮助欧洲度过了冬天，但其还不足以替代俄罗斯的天然气供应。欧洲只能加工一定量的液化天然气，分析人士称，液化天然气仍然存在短缺。Kpler分析师称：“这是我们见过的美国向欧洲输送液化天然气的最高水平。本月到目前为止，欧洲从美国获取的进口保持不变，所以我们预计2月份也会达到类似水平(超过500万吨)。”Yergin认为欧洲是俄罗斯天然气的天然市场。“在乌克兰危机之前，欧洲就陷入了能源危机。现在的不同之处在于2009年，当时俄罗斯中断了通过乌克兰的天然气输送，2009年欧洲的管道系统更加灵活，因此可以将天然气输送到各地，还有液化天然气的开发。但5年前，液化天然气已无法弥补俄罗斯供应较低的问题。”高油价提振美国产油量虽然美国石油公司对钻探的态度要保守得多，因为它们更加关注股东，而且投资者要求它们返还更多资金，但油价飙升最终可能会推动更多钻探活动。Yergin表示，与此同时，美国石油行业预计今年将把致密油市场的日产量提高约90万桶。该行业目前的日产量约为1160万桶，明年可能会恢复到疫情前的1300万桶。美国石油行业扩大生产的迹象正在钻机数量的增加中显现出来。根据Baker  Hughes的数据，目前美国石油行业的钻机总数为516台，上周增加了19台，是4年来的最大增幅。Again Capital合伙人John  Kilduff称：“我认为，乌克兰危机巩固了所有相关公司的石油淘金热，现在包括大陆能源(CLR.US)这样的大公司，该公司刚刚宣布，其投资支出相对于产出增加了一倍。大陆能源确实在加大产量上的投入。他们愿意接受目前更高的成本，以便在短期和中期从地下开采更多石油。”美国是石油生产大国，但俄罗斯是世界市场上更大的供应国，每天出口约500万桶石油。如果发生入侵，俄罗斯石油的任何供应减少都将波及全球。随着需求从疫情水平回升，俄罗斯及其OPEC+的合作伙伴已经慢慢提高了产量，他们应该在夏季之前达到目标产量。但俄罗斯政府长期以来一直担心油价过高，因为油价越高，美国生产商就越有动力增产。如果俄罗斯减少原油出口，分析人士预计，沙特阿拉伯将加大生产。沙特拥有美国所没有的闲置产能来开采石油，而美国公司将需要钻新井来生产更多的石油。不过，Kilduff表示，美国石油行业可能很快就会出现惊人的石油产量激增，因为石油公司已经开始开钻尚未完工的油井。分析人士称，正是美国和巴西等非OPEC国家的产量增加，才使油价没有大幅上涨。但现在，乌克兰紧张局势缓和，美国生产商也可能面临考验。Pickering Energy Partners首席投资官Dan  Pickering表示，美国石油产量一直在增加，但由于来自股东的压力，美国公司仍没有全速开钻。在ESG投资者的密切关注下，企业一直在偿还债务、提高股息，并寻找减少碳排放的方法。Pickering称：“尽管美国石油产商钻机数量相对较小，但钻机数量的增加很重要。在我看来，这反映出油价走强。边际利润的小幅增长可能是多种因素的综合作用。”这位分析师预计，如果该行业真的增加钻探数量，其效果将在明年出现，而不是在最近。但他指出，埃克森美孚(XOM.US)表示，今年将把德克萨斯州二叠纪盆地的产量提高25%，雪佛龙(CVX.US)也计划将该地区的产量提高10%。据IHS称，私营企业一直在提高产量，它们通常占新增产量的20%，但今年这一数字将达到50%。Kilduff指出，戴文能源(DVN.US)周二公布的收益高于预期，这是该行业增产的又一迹象。该公司的收益超出了预期，并提高了股息。Kilduff称:“在过去的几年里，这些公司一直在为低价格环境而努力，突然之间，经济形势又变得合理了，这让他们又回到了原来的轨道。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EIA":1,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.6,"UCO":0.9,"CLmain":0.6,"NGmain":0.6,"IEA":1,"CME":1,"SCO":0.9,"QMmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094600287,"gmtCreate":1645133343196,"gmtModify":1676533999907,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094600287","repostId":"1136461482","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9033479247,"gmtCreate":1646352505472,"gmtModify":1676534120336,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033479247","repostId":"1106625673","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039870444,"gmtCreate":1646009466093,"gmtModify":1676534081559,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039870444","repostId":"2214132600","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9039537936,"gmtCreate":1646084691418,"gmtModify":1676534087859,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9039537936","repostId":"1122487527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9097616062,"gmtCreate":1645439670099,"gmtModify":1676534027744,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9097616062","repostId":"2212677275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2212677275","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645411504,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2212677275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-21 10:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2212677275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, expectations of aggressive rate hike have surged, and Wall Street analysts are pondering one question: How will US stocks react during this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The latest report points out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has consistently delivered positive returns over the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>However, this almost only occurs during periods of accelerated economic growth. Since 1950, when economic recovery has slowed, returns have remained flat or declined.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the coming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk.<b>Current valuations in the US stock market are relatively high.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 index before this first rate hike was more expensive than in any other rate hike cycle except the period 1999-2000.</p><p>To make matters worse, the actual interest cost of this debt is negative, compared to the cost of equity in 1999. During this cycle, the Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points, and the market rose as it rose, but the S&P 500 peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Given these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures have already reflected at least two interest rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is siding with the bear market this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternative stocks performed the worst, while cyclical stocks performed the best.</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that, in terms of industry sectors, bond alternatives performed the worst, while cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond alternatives such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have underperformed the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionaries sector has outperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed other sectors, but it currently faces risks from high labor intensity and wage pressures.</p><p><b>Other industries that have performed well historically include technology, energy, materials, and daily consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>However, in rate hike cycles, industry alpha is more discrete, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>During the year the Federal Reserve began its rate hike, stock market factors performed well with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net asset value per share. Low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow outperformed the broader market in each cycle, with stocks with low net asset value per share outperforming the market in 80% of cases. Measured by these indicators, the currently lower-priced industries are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks</p><p>Bank of America believes that a company's outstanding shares are also a good measure of its performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically perform well in the months before a rate hike begins, but slightly weaker after a rate hike begins.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are currently cheaper than large-cap stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>P/E for small-cap stocks typically rise 5-6% in the first three months of a rate hike and fall 8% during the rally. However, the Russell 2000 P/E has fallen 12% since last November, the lowest level relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>Meanwhile, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and 10-year changes (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and changes in Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also pointed out that faster tightening will not be more detrimental to small businesses, and there is no correlation between the speed of rate hike and relative scale performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during periods of balance sheet contraction, history shows that stocks > bonds, value stocks > growth stocks, and large-cap stocks = small-cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearn from history! How will US stocks perform during a tightening cycle?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-21 10:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, expectations of aggressive rate hike have surged, and Wall Street analysts are pondering one question: How will US stocks react during this tightening cycle?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The latest report points out that the vast majority of optimists believe that the S&P 500 has consistently delivered positive returns over the past seven rate hike cycles.<b>However, this almost only occurs during periods of accelerated economic growth. Since 1950, when economic recovery has slowed, returns have remained flat or declined.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd1e1ffad540c4f6e7aa2033aae33859\" tg-width=\"1560\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In the coming tightening cycle, there is an even greater risk.<b>Current valuations in the US stock market are relatively high.</b></p><p>In fact, the S&P 500 index before this first rate hike was more expensive than in any other rate hike cycle except the period 1999-2000.</p><p>To make matters worse, the actual interest cost of this debt is negative, compared to the cost of equity in 1999. During this cycle, the Federal Funds rate rose 150 basis points, and the market rose as it rose, but the S&P 500 peaked in March 2000 and then fell 49% over the next two and a half years.</p><p>Given these two main risk factors, even if the upcoming tightening cycle may be short-lived (Federal Funds rate futures have already reflected at least two interest rate cuts before 2024), Bank of America is siding with the bear market this time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc5ab5839fdac8ef84d42f03c1885828\" tg-width=\"1648\" tg-height=\"784\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Bond alternative stocks performed the worst, while cyclical stocks performed the best.</b></p><p>Bank of America believes that, in terms of industry sectors, bond alternatives performed the worst, while cyclical sectors performed the best.</p><p>In historical tightening cycles, bond alternatives such as utilities and real estate, as well as industrial stocks, have underperformed the S&P 500.</p><p>The consumer discretionaries sector has outperformed the S&P 500 and outperformed other sectors, but it currently faces risks from high labor intensity and wage pressures.</p><p><b>Other industries that have performed well historically include technology, energy, materials, and daily consumer goods.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2396603b1b718b964d5584d7b23d32\" tg-width=\"1508\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>However, in rate hike cycles, industry alpha is more discrete, and the stock factor may be a better explanatory variable.</b></p><p>During the year the Federal Reserve began its rate hike, stock market factors performed well with low enterprise value multiples (EV/EBITDA), high valuations, and low net asset value per share. Low enterprise value multiples and high enterprise value/free cash flow outperformed the broader market in each cycle, with stocks with low net asset value per share outperforming the market in 80% of cases. Measured by these indicators, the currently lower-priced industries are energy materials and healthcare.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac082cc07dc1c56833e8d373417f1682\" tg-width=\"1568\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks</p><p>Bank of America believes that a company's outstanding shares are also a good measure of its performance in the rate hike.</p><p><b>Small-cap stocks typically perform well in the months before a rate hike begins, but slightly weaker after a rate hike begins.</b>But unlike other rate hike cycles, small-cap stocks are currently cheaper than large-cap stocks.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d1deb9d33895b10c21ecd6863c8e597\" tg-width=\"1668\" tg-height=\"1202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>P/E for small-cap stocks typically rise 5-6% in the first three months of a rate hike and fall 8% during the rally. However, the Russell 2000 P/E has fallen 12% since last November, the lowest level relative to P/E since 2000.</p><p>Meanwhile, the correlation between the performance of small-cap stocks and 10-year changes (positive correlation) is much greater than the correlation between the performance of large-cap stocks and changes in Federal Funds rate (almost no correlation).</p><p>The Bank of America report also pointed out that faster tightening will not be more detrimental to small businesses, and there is no correlation between the speed of rate hike and relative scale performance.</p><p><b>Furthermore, during periods of balance sheet contraction, history shows that stocks > bonds, value stocks > growth stocks, and large-cap stocks = small-cap stocks.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deea07177357b743f796a2d50d1956c\" tg-width=\"1636\" tg-height=\"770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3652358","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2212677275","content_text":"近期，激进加息预期激增，华尔街分析师都在思考一个问题：本次紧缩周期中美股会作何反应？美国银行在最新报告中指出，绝大多数乐观派认为，在过去的七个加息周期中，标普500指数一直是正回报。但这几乎只出现在经济增长加速的阶段，自1950年以来，当经济复苏放缓时，回报率持平或下降。在即将到来的紧缩周期中，还有一个更大的风险，当前美股市场估值偏高。事实上，本轮首次加息前的标普500指数比除了1999-2000年期间之外的任何其它加息周期都要昂贵。更糟的是，这次债务的实际利息成本是负的，而在1999年，权益成本是负的。在这一周期中，联邦基金利率上升了150个基点，市场在上升过程中走高，但标普指数在2000年3月见顶，随后在接下来的两年半中下跌了49%。考虑到这两个主要风险因素，即使将到来的紧缩周期可能是短暂的（联邦基金利率期货已经反映出在2024年之前至少两次降息），美银这次也站队熊市阵营。债券替代股表现最差，周期股表现最好美银认为，从行业板块来看，债券替代股表现最差，周期性板块表现最好。在历史紧缩周期中，公用事业、房地产等债券替代股以及工业股表现比标普500要差。非必需消费品板块的表现比标普500指数要好，且超过其他板块，但目前该板块面临高劳动强度和工资压力带来的风险。历史上其他表现良好的行业包括科技、能源、材料和日常消费品。但在加息周期中，行业alpha的离散程度较大，而股票因子可能是一个更好的解释变量。在美联储开启加息的一年内，股市因子表现为企业价值倍数低（EV/EBITDA）、估值高和每股净值低的表现良好，低企业价值倍数和高企业价值/自由现金流在每个周期中领先，每股净值低的股票在80%的情况下优于大盘。按这些指标衡量，目前价格较低的行业是能源材料和医疗保健。小盘股表现优于大盘股美银认为，公司流通股本也能很好等衡量公司在加息中的表现。加息开始前几个月小盘股通常表现要好，加息开始后小盘股表现稍弱。但与其他加息周期不同，目前小盘股比大型股价格要便宜。小盘股的市盈率通常在加息前三个月上升5-6%，在上涨期间下降8%。但罗素2000指数的市盈率自去年11月以来已经下跌了12%，相对市盈率是2000年以来的最低水平。同时，小盘股比大盘股表现与10年期变化的相关性(正相关)要比与联邦基金利率变化的相关性(几乎没有相关性)大得多。美银报告还指出，更快的紧缩不会对小企业更不利，加息速度与相对规模表现之间没有相关性。此外，在资产负债表缩减期间，历史表明股票>债券，价值股>成长股，大盘股=小盘股。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZTmain":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SPY":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"BAC":0.73,"ESmain":0.85,"ZNmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030324389,"gmtCreate":1645652220963,"gmtModify":1676534048140,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp; Ok","listText":"&nbsp; Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030324389","repostId":"2213496312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2213496312","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1645586061,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2213496312?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-23 11:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213496312","media":"熊园观察","summary":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Event: On February 21 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. Global stock markets plummeted, while crude oil and gold prices surged.</p><p>Key conclusions:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war.</p><p>2. Learning from history, the performance patterns of major asset classes after geopolitical conflicts: In the short term, it will be negative for risky assets and beneficial for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the current Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>Regarding the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be wary of the derivative risks that sanctions against Russia could lead to rising commodity prices. Regarding asset prices: Based on the aforementioned experience, if we only consider this conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after a month, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. Prices of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions. Regarding global inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, including: 1) US inflation remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed; 2) For China, according to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that CPI will remain low at the beginning and high at the end of the year, and rising oil prices will not be able to change the downward trend of PPI. 3) Given that rising oil prices have a significantly greater impact on PPI than on CPI, this will disrupt the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap in my country, and will also disrupt the pace of upstream and downstream transmission of corporate profits. Regarding the Fed's rate hike pace: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will exacerbate uncertainty in the global economic outlook and increase downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Fed's rate hike pace. In fact, since mid-February, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have begun to cool. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a long history, with the core differences being \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO.\" In mid-January 2022, Russia held talks with the United States, NATO, and the OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but without achieving significant results. After a month of negotiations, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping forces\" to enter the region, greatly increasing the possibility of the conflict between the two sides escalating into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned that it was prepared to impose more sanctions if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Learning from history, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: Short-term negative impact on risky assets, positive impact on safe-haven assets and resource commodities, but weak medium- to long-term impact.</p><p>For better comparison, we selected five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers since 2000 as our analysis objects, including the Afghanistan War in 2001, the Iraq War in 2003, the Libyan War and the Syrian War in 2011, and the Crimean referendum in 2014. The performance of various asset prices during the outbreak of these conflicts is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: US stocks generally fell in the short term, with the decline lasting generally 10-30 days, before resuming their upward trend. A-shares have mostly risen in the short term, but there is no consistent pattern in their medium- to long-term trends. The divergence between A-shares and US stocks is partly due to the fact that none of the recent rounds of geopolitical conflicts involved China, and partly because the correlation between A-shares and US stocks was relatively low before 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds generally declined in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, before continuing to decline after a brief rebound; The yield on 10-year Chinese bonds has mostly declined in the short term, and its medium- to long-term trend is likely to fluctuate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index experienced three sustained declines, one sustained rise, and one period of slight fluctuation;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold experienced two consecutive declines, two consecutive rises, and one initial decline followed by a rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices have generally risen in the short term, with the range of increases also ranging from 10 to 30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p>Copper: Copper prices have mostly fallen in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of patterns: In summary, geopolitical conflicts can negatively impact risky assets in the short term, while benefiting safe-haven assets and energy commodities. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is relatively weak.</p><p>3. Four scenarios for the impact of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike.</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will likely face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total imports and exports of goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and its direct impact on the global economy and trade is expected to be limited. However, given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, we need to be wary of the risks arising from sanctions against Russia leading to rising commodity prices. For example, in 2020, Russia exported approximately 1999 billion cubic meters of natural gas, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports. Of this, about 80% was exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of Europe's natural gas imports. If the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues and the US and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further exacerbate the natural gas shortage in Europe, thereby dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Based on the above analysis, if the fire in eastern Ukraine on February 17 is taken as the starting point of the conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will continue to decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, a month later, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to escalate, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, but it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in my country's PPI.</p><p>US inflation: Remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed. In our previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is significantly affected by energy prices. According to rough estimates, assuming that oil prices average $105 per barrel over the next 1-3 months, the US CPI will further rise to around 8% year-on-year in February-March. If oil prices cannot fall quickly, the turning point in US inflation may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Looking ahead to the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: Oil prices mainly affect two sub-items of CPI: residential hydroelectric fuel and transportation fuel. If oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Considering the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to $92.7 per barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Taking into account the base, changes in food and non-food prices, the CPI is expected to rebound slightly year-on-year in February. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and under the baseline scenario, the central level for the whole year may be higher than 2.0%.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil prices mainly affect the PPI sub-items such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing. According to the model, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the PPI sub-items of oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical industry, and chemical fiber by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0, and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. Considering that the above-mentioned sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5%, and 0.8% of the PPI, respectively, it can be converted to a 10% year-on-year increase in oil prices, which may drive up the PPI by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices are expected to drive up the PPI by about 1.9 percentage points in February; Taking into account the base and changes in other industrial product prices, the year-on-year PPI in February may still decline slightly. Looking at the whole year, as the PPI base rebounds month by month, rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturbing the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. Based on the previous calculations, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than that of CPI; Therefore, rising oil prices may disrupt both the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap and the pace of upstream and downstream profit transmission. Specifically, upstream profitability is likely to remain at a high level in the short term, while the uncertainty of improving profitability in the midstream and downstream sectors is increasing. From an industry perspective, the profits of industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemicals, and chemical fibers are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of the rubber and plastics industry are negatively correlated with oil prices. If oil prices remain high, the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction may be supported, and the suppression on the rubber and plastics industry may continue. (See the previous report \"2022 Profits Will Be Transmitted to Upstream and Downstream Sectors—Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissors Difference\" for details)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the pace of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflation inflection point, but the current Fed rate hike expectations have fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, which will constrain the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Overall, interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, market expectations for rate hike in March have decreased from 1.7 to 1.2, and for rate hike throughout the year from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that expectations for rate hike have begun to cool down. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is evolving beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1589878828889","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt concerns the global economy! Four impacts of the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">熊园观察</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-23 11:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Event: On February 21 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two countries. Global stock markets plummeted, while crude oil and gold prices surged.</p><p>Key conclusions:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war.</p><p>2. Learning from history, the performance patterns of major asset classes after geopolitical conflicts: In the short term, it will be negative for risky assets and beneficial for safe-haven assets and energy products. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is weak.</p><p>3. If the current Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, there are four possible impacts:</p><p>Regarding the global economy: Russia is likely to face a new round of sanctions; Given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, it is necessary to be wary of the derivative risks that sanctions against Russia could lead to rising commodity prices. Regarding asset prices: Based on the aforementioned experience, if we only consider this conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, after a month, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. Prices of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions. Regarding global inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, including: 1) US inflation remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed; 2) For China, according to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively. It is expected that CPI will remain low at the beginning and high at the end of the year, and rising oil prices will not be able to change the downward trend of PPI. 3) Given that rising oil prices have a significantly greater impact on PPI than on CPI, this will disrupt the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap in my country, and will also disrupt the pace of upstream and downstream transmission of corporate profits. Regarding the Fed's rate hike pace: The Russia-Ukraine conflict will exacerbate uncertainty in the global economic outlook and increase downward pressure on US stocks, thereby constraining the Fed's rate hike pace. In fact, since mid-February, the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations have begun to cool. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year. The text is as follows:</p><p>1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, greatly increasing the likelihood of it escalating into war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has a long history, with the core differences being \"NATO's eastward expansion\" and \"Ukraine's accession to NATO.\" In mid-January 2022, Russia held talks with the United States, NATO, and the OSCE on the situation in Ukraine, but without achieving significant results. After a month of negotiations, the conflict between the two sides escalated again: on the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the two. At the same time, he ordered \"peacekeeping forces\" to enter the region, greatly increasing the possibility of the conflict between the two sides escalating into war. In response, the United States announced financial sanctions against Russia and warned that it was prepared to impose more sanctions if necessary.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af52f7a91e964f09f82387d80558d85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a906fdd0c25182405d6b9ff629db6791\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>2. Learning from history, the impact of geopolitical conflicts on assets: Short-term negative impact on risky assets, positive impact on safe-haven assets and resource commodities, but weak medium- to long-term impact.</p><p>For better comparison, we selected five large-scale geopolitical conflicts involving major powers since 2000 as our analysis objects, including the Afghanistan War in 2001, the Iraq War in 2003, the Libyan War and the Syrian War in 2011, and the Crimean referendum in 2014. The performance of various asset prices during the outbreak of these conflicts is as follows:</p><p>Stock market: US stocks generally fell in the short term, with the decline lasting generally 10-30 days, before resuming their upward trend. A-shares have mostly risen in the short term, but there is no consistent pattern in their medium- to long-term trends. The divergence between A-shares and US stocks is partly due to the fact that none of the recent rounds of geopolitical conflicts involved China, and partly because the correlation between A-shares and US stocks was relatively low before 2015.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e270fdee3a166416e98f5c2fdf52ea3d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Bond market: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds generally declined in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, before continuing to decline after a brief rebound; The yield on 10-year Chinese bonds has mostly declined in the short term, and its medium- to long-term trend is likely to fluctuate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7697addec2acb2db96ccf9e263363fbf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Exchange rate: the US Dollar Index experienced three sustained declines, one sustained rise, and one period of slight fluctuation;</p><p>Gold: Spot gold experienced two consecutive declines, two consecutive rises, and one initial decline followed by a rise.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0550757b3c7c99d521b0a87637d529a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"411\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Crude oil: Crude oil prices have generally risen in the short term, with the range of increases also ranging from 10 to 30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p>Copper: Copper prices have mostly fallen in the short term, with the decline range also being 10-30 days, and there is no consistent pattern in the medium to long term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e7067c2e912053babb0dedecb700c7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Summary of patterns: In summary, geopolitical conflicts can negatively impact risky assets in the short term, while benefiting safe-haven assets and energy commodities. The impact is often concentrated in the 10-30 days after the outbreak of the conflict, and the impact on the medium- to long-term trend of asset prices is relatively weak.</p><p>3. Four scenarios for the impact of the current Russia-Ukraine conflict: global economy, asset prices, global inflation, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hike.</p><p>1) Impact on the global economy: If the conflict continues to escalate, Russia will likely face a new round of sanctions, which will also drag down the global economy. As of 2020, Russia's GDP and total imports and exports of goods amounted to US$1.5 trillion and US$569.3 billion respectively, accounting for 1.7% and 1.6% of the global total, respectively, and its direct impact on the global economy and trade is expected to be limited. However, given that Russia is a major global exporter of energy and raw materials, we need to be wary of the risks arising from sanctions against Russia leading to rising commodity prices. For example, in 2020, Russia exported approximately 1999 billion cubic meters of natural gas, accounting for about 16.2% of global natural gas exports. Of this, about 80% was exported to Europe, accounting for more than 40% of Europe's natural gas imports. If the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues and the US and Europe launch a new round of sanctions against Russia, it will further exacerbate the natural gas shortage in Europe, thereby dragging down the European economy.</p><p>2) Impact on asset prices: Based on the above analysis, if the fire in eastern Ukraine on February 17 is taken as the starting point of the conflict, global stock markets will still face downward pressure in the next month, Treasury Bond yields will continue to decline, and crude oil and gold are expected to rise further. However, a month later, asset price trends will return to being dominated by fundamentals. In addition, Russia and Ukraine are also important exporters of commodities such as steel, corn, wheat, barley, and fertilizers (see Chart 11 for specific commodities and shares). If the conflict between the two sides continues to escalate, the prices of these commodities may rise further in the short term due to supply disruptions.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b5c88fd3fca5f8262509fb196612c61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"671\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82a027493d3e9b071117b063493e8d8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>3) Impact on inflation: Pushing up oil prices to high levels in the short term will increase global inflationary pressures, but it will be difficult to reverse the downward trend in my country's PPI.</p><p>US inflation: Remains high in the short term, and the turning point of the decline will be delayed. In our previous reports, we have repeatedly pointed out that inflation in developed countries such as the United States is significantly affected by energy prices. According to rough estimates, assuming that oil prices average $105 per barrel over the next 1-3 months, the US CPI will further rise to around 8% year-on-year in February-March. If oil prices cannot fall quickly, the turning point in US inflation may be delayed until around May.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bf730b4ac6bfc18f1c5eb4f702a4166\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"792\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>China's inflation: According to calculations, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the CPI and PPI by 0.09% and 0.4% respectively; Looking ahead to the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.</p><p>1) CPI: Oil prices mainly affect two sub-items of CPI: residential hydroelectric fuel and transportation fuel. If oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it will drive the above two sub-items up by 0.8 and 2.3 percentage points respectively. Considering the weight of the above sub-items in CPI, it can be converted that if oil prices rise by 10% year-on-year, it may drive the CPI up by 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, the average oil price rose to $92.7 per barrel in the first 21 days of February, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%, which is expected to boost the CPI by about 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Taking into account the base, changes in food and non-food prices, the CPI is expected to rebound slightly year-on-year in February. Looking at the whole year, the CPI is expected to remain low at the beginning and high at the end, and under the baseline scenario, the central level for the whole year may be higher than 2.0%.</p><p>2) PPI: Oil prices mainly affect the PPI sub-items such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical manufacturing, and chemical fiber manufacturing. According to the model, if oil prices rise by 10%, it will drive up the PPI sub-items of oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemical industry, and chemical fiber by 7.3, 4.1, 2.0, and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. Considering that the above-mentioned sub-items account for 0.7%, 4.3%, 6.5%, and 0.8% of the PPI, respectively, it can be converted to a 10% year-on-year increase in oil prices, which may drive up the PPI by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year. In the short term, oil prices are expected to drive up the PPI by about 1.9 percentage points in February; Taking into account the base and changes in other industrial product prices, the year-on-year PPI in February may still decline slightly. Looking at the whole year, as the PPI base rebounds month by month, rising oil prices are unlikely to reverse the downward trend in PPI.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed90879ecee1fc82d23a7e0d11ddee4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/911d90c91485c6f8978e6b5b054adbd3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"442\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Disturbing the convergence rhythm of PPI-CPI scissors difference & the upstream and downstream transmission rhythm of corporate profits. Based on the previous calculations, the impact of rising oil prices on PPI is significantly greater than that of CPI; Therefore, rising oil prices may disrupt both the pace of convergence of the PPI-CPI scissors gap and the pace of upstream and downstream profit transmission. Specifically, upstream profitability is likely to remain at a high level in the short term, while the uncertainty of improving profitability in the midstream and downstream sectors is increasing. From an industry perspective, the profits of industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, chemicals, and chemical fibers are positively correlated with oil prices, while the profits of the rubber and plastics industry are negatively correlated with oil prices. If oil prices remain high, the profitability of industries such as oil and gas extraction may be supported, and the suppression on the rubber and plastics industry may continue. (See the previous report \"2022 Profits Will Be Transmitted to Upstream and Downstream Sectors—Calculation Based on PPI-CPI Scissors Difference\" for details)<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c1dc18b4888a8b1fd254b88563c399\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>4) Impact on the pace of the Fed's rate hike: On the one hand, as previously analyzed, this conflict may raise US inflation and delay the inflation inflection point, but the current Fed rate hike expectations have fully reflected high inflation; On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has exacerbated uncertainty about the global economic outlook and increased downward pressure on US stocks, which will constrain the Federal Reserve's rate hike pace. Overall, interest rate futures data shows that since mid-February, market expectations for rate hike in March have decreased from 1.7 to 1.2, and for rate hike throughout the year from 6.6 to 5.9, reflecting that expectations for rate hike have begun to cool down. We maintain our previous assessment: the Federal Reserve will be hawkish first and then dovish in 2022, with 3-4 rate hike expected throughout the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9bbc1d19f9386cdf6bd129a69fefaf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Risk warning: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is evolving beyond expectations.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565\">熊园观察</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bc03fbf058ce151dd2a13f771bc11dc","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","UNG":"美国天然气基金","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/940565","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213496312","content_text":"摘要：俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事件：当地时间2月21日，俄罗斯总统普京签署承认乌东两地顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克的人民共和国总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，全球股市大跌，原油、黄金大涨。核心结论：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突后大类资产的表现规律：短期会利空风险资产，利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、如果本次俄乌冲突持续升级，可能的4点影响：对全球经济：俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁；鉴于俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨的衍生风险。对资产价格：参照前述经验，若仅考虑本次冲突，未来一个月内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨，但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导；钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品价格，短期内可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。对全球通胀：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，其中：1）美国通胀短期仍高，回落拐点也将延后；2）对中国，按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%，预计全年CPI仍将前低后高，油价上行也难改PPI下行趋势；3）鉴于油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI，这将扰动我国PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏，也会扰动企业盈利上下游传导节奏。对美联储加息节奏：俄乌冲突将加剧全球经济前景的不确定性，也将加大美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。事实上，2月中旬以来，美联储加息预期已开始降温。维持此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。正文如下：1、俄乌冲突持续升级，演化成战争的可能性大增。俄乌问题由来已久，其中核心分歧在于“北约东扩”、“乌克兰加入北约”，2022年1月中旬俄罗斯曾先后与美国、北约、欧安组织就乌克兰局势举行会谈，但未取得明显成效。经过长达1个月的博弈，双方冲突再度升级：21日俄罗斯总统普京签署了承认顿涅茨克人民共和国和卢甘斯克人民共和国的总统令，并签署俄罗斯与二者的友好合作互助条约，同时下令“维和部队”进入该地区，双方冲突演变成战争的可能性大增。作为回应，美国宣布对俄罗斯实施金融制裁，并警告说如有必要，准备实施更多制裁。2、以史为鉴，地缘冲突对资产的影响：短期利空风险资产、利好避险和资源品，中长期影响较弱为了更好地对比，我们选取2000年以来“5次规模较大、涉及主要大国的地缘冲突”作为分析对象，包括2001年阿富汗战争、2003年伊拉克战争、2011年利比亚战争&叙利亚战争，2014年克里米亚公投，冲突爆发期间，各类资产价格的表现情况如下：股市：美股短期普遍下跌，下跌区间基本在10-30天，随后重新开始上涨；A股则短期大多表现为上涨，中长期走势无一致规律。A股与美股背离，一方面是由于这几轮地缘冲突均未涉及中国，另一方面则是2015年之前A股与美股相关性较低；债市：10Y美债收益率短期普遍下行，下行区间同样在10-30天，随后在短暂反弹后继续下行；10Y中债收益率短期也大多下行，中长期走势偏震荡；汇率：美元指数有3次持续下跌、1次持续上涨、1次偏震荡；黄金：现货黄金2次持续下跌、2次持续上涨、1次先跌后涨；原油：原油价格短期普遍上涨，上涨区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律；铜：铜价短期大多下跌，下跌区间同样在10-30天，中长期走势无一致规律。规律总结：综上梳理可知，地缘冲突短期会利空风险资产、利好避险资产和能源品，影响往往集中在冲突爆发后的10-30天，对资产价格中长期走势的影响较弱。3、本次俄乌冲突影响的4点推演：全球经济、资产价格、全球通胀、美联储加息节奏1）对全球经济的影响：如果冲突继续升级，俄罗斯大概率会面临新一轮制裁，也将对全球经济形成拖累。截至2020年，俄罗斯GDP、进出口商品总额分别为1.5万亿美元、5693亿美元，分别占全球的1.7%、1.6%，预计对全球经济和贸易的直接影响有限。但考虑到俄罗斯是全球主要的能源、原材料出口国，需警惕制裁俄罗斯导致大宗商品价格上涨衍生出来的风险。比如，2020年俄罗斯天然气出口约1999亿立方米，占全球天然气出口的份额约16.2%，其中约80%出口欧洲，占欧洲天然气进口的40%以上，如果后续俄乌局势持续紧张、美欧对俄罗斯开启新一轮制裁，将进一步加剧欧洲天然气短缺格局，从而拖累欧洲经济。2）对资产价格的影响：结合前述分析，若以2月17日乌东地区开火作为冲突爆发的起点，则未来近一个月的时间内全球股市仍有下跌压力，国债收益率仍趋下行，原油和黄金有望进一步上涨；但一个月之后，资产价格走势将重新回归基本面主导。此外，俄罗斯和乌克兰也是全球钢铁、玉米、小麦、大麦、肥料等商品的重要出口国（具体商品和份额见图表11），若双方冲突持续加剧，短期内这些商品的价格可能因供给受阻而进一步上涨。3）对通胀的影响：推升油价短期处于高位，加大全球通胀压力，但难改我国PPI下行趋势美国通胀：短期仍高，回落拐点也将延迟。前期报告我们多次指出，美国等发达国家通胀受能源价格影响较大。根据粗略估算，若假设油价未来1-3个月均值均为105美元/桶，美国2-3月CPI同比将进一步升至8%左右；若油价无法快速回落，美国通胀拐点时间可能延迟到5月前后。中国通胀：按照测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别拉动CPI、PPI上行0.09%、0.4%；全年看，CPI预计仍将前低后高，油价上行预计难改PPI下行趋势。1）CPI：油价主要影响CPI居住水电燃料、交通工具用燃料两个分项，如果油价同比上涨10%，将分别带动上述两个分项上涨0.8、2.3个百分点，结合上述分项占CPI的权重，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动CPI同比上行0.09个百分点。短期看，2月前21天油价均值涨至92.7美元/桶，同比增48.8%，预计将提振CPI同比约0.5个百分点，综合考虑基数、食品、非食品分项价格变动，预计2月CPI同比可能小幅回升。全年看，CPI预计仍会维持前低后高，基准情形下全年中枢可能高于2.0%。2）PPI：油价主要影响PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工制造、化纤制造等分项，按照模型测算，如果油价上涨10%，将分别带动PPI油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤分项上行7.3、4.1、2.0和2.2个百分点，考虑上述分项占PPI的比重分别为0.7%、4.3%、6.5%和0.8%，可以折算如果油价同比上涨10%，可能拉动PPI同比上行0.4个百分点。短期看，2月油价预计拉动PPI上行约1.9个百分点；综合考虑基数及其他工业品价格变动，2月PPI同比可能仍将小幅回落。全年看，由于PPI基数逐月回升，油价上涨大概率难改PPI下行趋势。扰动PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏&企业盈利上下游传导节奏。基于前文的测算，油价上涨对PPI的影响明显大于CPI；因此油价上涨可能对PPI-CPI剪刀差收敛节奏和盈利上下游传导节奏均形成扰动。具体看，上游盈利短期可能仍将处于较高水平，中下游盈利改善的不确定性增加。产业视角看，油气开采、燃料加工、化工、化纤等行业盈利跟油价正相关，橡胶塑料行业盈利跟油价负相关。如果油价持续处于较高水平，油气开采等行业盈利可能存在支撑，对橡胶塑料行业的压制可能持续存在。（详见前期报告《2022年盈利将上下游传导—基于PPI-CPI剪刀差的测算》）4）对美联储加息节奏的影响：一方面，如前分析，本次冲突可能抬升美国通胀并延后通胀拐点，但当前美联储加息预期已充分反映了高通胀；另一方面，俄乌冲突加剧了全球经济前景的不确定性，也加大了美股下跌压力，从而会制约美联储加息步伐。综合看，利率期货数据显示，2月中旬以来，市场预期3月加息次数由1.7次降至1.2次，全年加息次数由6.6次降至5.9次，反映出加息预期已开始降温。维持我们此前判断：2022年美联储将先鹰后鸽，预计全年加息3-4次。风险提示：俄乌冲突超预期演化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.6,"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"518880":0.6,"TNmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.6,"ZNmain":0.9,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"IAU":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"DDM":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"MGCmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,"NGmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"QID":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"ZFmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"DUG":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"SCO":0.6,"UNG":0.6,"USO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UWTIF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UCO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"CLmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"UBmain":0.9,"DWT":0.6,"ZBmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UGAZ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9094600287,"gmtCreate":1645133343196,"gmtModify":1676533999907,"author":{"id":"3585175863243941","authorId":"3585175863243941","name":"tay931888","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/f29802fbd50af9b6ba06ceae0ab19620","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585175863243941","idStr":"3585175863243941"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Ok","listText":"&nbsp;Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9094600287","repostId":"1136461482","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"lan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23:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Ford Motor Company surged in the short term amid reports that it is considering spinning off its electric vehicle or gas engine divisions.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139808170","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，福特汽车短线拉升，截至发稿涨超4%。市场消息称，福特汽车CEO考虑通过多种方式让电动汽车业务单独运作，包括分拆电动车或燃气发动机业务部门。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The price surged in the short term, rising more than 4% as of press time. Market sources say that Ford's CEO is considering several ways to make the electric vehicle business operate independently, including spinning off the electric vehicle or gas engine business units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd55986c14981565e24801f5b23094e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ford Motor Company surged in the short term amid reports that it is considering spinning off its electric vehicle or gas engine divisions.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFord Motor Company surged in the short term amid reports that it is considering spinning off its electric vehicle or gas engine divisions.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-18 23:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Friday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford Motor</a>The price surged in the short term, rising more than 4% as of press time. Market sources say that Ford's CEO is considering several ways to make the electric vehicle business operate independently, including spinning off the electric vehicle or gas engine business units.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bd55986c14981565e24801f5b23094e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f27c1c8aa54c63bbf415c36a2121f812","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139808170","content_text":"周五，福特汽车短线拉升，截至发稿涨超4%。市场消息称，福特汽车CEO考虑通过多种方式让电动汽车业务单独运作，包括分拆电动车或燃气发动机业务部门。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}