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Bluez

Bluez

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2021-08-13

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2021-08-05

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stagflation risks are increasing! Goldman Sachs: Hedging against a sharp decline in US stocks

2021-08-01

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What will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment

2021-07-31

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Behind the "buying a house with a voucher," is a major revolution in the real estate market really coming?

2021-06-17

?

Federal Reserve Dot Plot: Median Expectation: Fed to rate hike Twice by the End of 2023

2021-06-10

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Foreign media headlines: US SEC chairman proposes broad evaluation of stock trading rules

2021-06-08

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2021-06-08

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11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"stagflation risks are increasing! Goldman Sachs: Hedging against a sharp decline in US stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156717176","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissman","content":"<p>U.S. stocks remain high, but major Wall Street banks have already begun warning of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This reminds investors that the market is becoming quite unstable, and they should pay attention to the risk of stock declines and be prepared to hedge.</p><p>In a recent research report, Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann stated that the S&P 500 has not experienced a 5% decline for 187 days, one of the longest such periods in the past 100 years. As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios are becoming more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first carefully observed recent inflation indicators, pointing out that break-even inflation outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have always been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance suggests that the divergence between break-even inflation and various historically correlated indicators appears to be widening.</p><p>First, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as cyclical stocks last week (EU Cyclicals vs Defensives). Moreover, this trend has actually emerged since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>This is true not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Starting in the second half of last year, US breakeven inflation and US cyclical vs defensive assets began to gradually decouple.</p><p><b>Break-even inflation is typically used to measure inflation expectations. However, it should be noted that the rise in break-even inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>Conversely, as break-even inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been declining, with the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States recently hitting new lows.</p><p><b>In response to the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such low real interest rates point to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to contradict the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the US economic recovery is largely on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>The core of inflation is bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June, and the yield curve has flattened, suggesting not only the risk of a near-term economic slowdown, but also the risk of prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the decline in long-term bond yields is primarily driven by real yields, while break-even inflation is sticky—indicating growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong jobs report could help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he warned that the risk of a stock market correction has increased. In addition, the gap between S&P 500 returns and bond yields has been widening over the past six months. Coupled with very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, this has made stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rates.</b></p><p>In addition to the reasons mentioned above, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in its report.</p><p>For example, Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has recently plummeted. In terms of index composition, growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure. This means that despite a generally strong earnings season in Europe and the United States looking ahead, the market still does not believe there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that US fiscal stimulus measures are beginning to disappoint and the COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>stagflation risks are increasing! Goldman Sachs: Hedging against a sharp decline in US stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nstagflation risks are increasing! Goldman Sachs: Hedging against a sharp decline in US stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks remain high, but major Wall Street banks have already begun warning of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This reminds investors that the market is becoming quite unstable, and they should pay attention to the risk of stock declines and be prepared to hedge.</p><p>In a recent research report, Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann stated that the S&P 500 has not experienced a 5% decline for 187 days, one of the longest such periods in the past 100 years. As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios are becoming more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first carefully observed recent inflation indicators, pointing out that break-even inflation outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have always been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance suggests that the divergence between break-even inflation and various historically correlated indicators appears to be widening.</p><p>First, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as cyclical stocks last week (EU Cyclicals vs Defensives). Moreover, this trend has actually emerged since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>This is true not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Starting in the second half of last year, US breakeven inflation and US cyclical vs defensive assets began to gradually decouple.</p><p><b>Break-even inflation is typically used to measure inflation expectations. However, it should be noted that the rise in break-even inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>Conversely, as break-even inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been declining, with the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States recently hitting new lows.</p><p><b>In response to the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such low real interest rates point to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to contradict the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the US economic recovery is largely on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>The core of inflation is bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June, and the yield curve has flattened, suggesting not only the risk of a near-term economic slowdown, but also the risk of prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the decline in long-term bond yields is primarily driven by real yields, while break-even inflation is sticky—indicating growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong jobs report could help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he warned that the risk of a stock market correction has increased. In addition, the gap between S&P 500 returns and bond yields has been widening over the past six months. Coupled with very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, this has made stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rates.</b></p><p>In addition to the reasons mentioned above, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in its report.</p><p>For example, Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has recently plummeted. In terms of index composition, growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure. This means that despite a generally strong earnings season in Europe and the United States looking ahead, the market still does not believe there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that US fiscal stimulus measures are beginning to disappoint and the COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156717176","content_text":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissmann在最近的一篇研报中表示，标普500指数已经有187天没有出现下跌5%的情况，为过去100年来最长持续时间之一；随着股票和债券越来越贵，多资产组合也变得更容易受到利率和经济增长冲击的影响。\nMueller-Glissmann首先仔细观察了近期的通胀指标，指出盈亏平衡通胀表现优于其他“顺周期”资产。通常来说，这两者在历史上一直是密切相关的；但是近期的表现显示，盈亏平衡通胀与各种历史相关性指标的差异似乎越来越大。\n首先，上周欧洲盈亏平衡通胀（EU breakeven inflation）表现优于周期股等资产（EU Cyclicals vs Defensives）。并且，实际上今年二季度以来就已经出现了这一趋势。\n不仅是欧洲，美国也是如此。去年下半年开始美国盈亏平衡通胀（US breakeves）和顺周期资产（US cyclical vs Defensives）就开始不断脱钩了。\n盈亏平衡通胀通常被用于衡量通胀预期。然而需要注意的是，盈亏平衡通胀的上升并没有反映在更重要的实际利率上。\n相反，随着盈亏平衡通胀的上升，整个期限结构的实际利率一直在下降，欧洲和美国的10年期实际利率均在近期创下了新低。\n对于上述情形，高盛警告，如此低的实际利率水平指向了市场对滞涨风险的定价，而这似乎与经济复苏有些矛盾。在高盛经济学家看来，美国经济复苏大体上处在轨道上，通胀压力最终也会缓解。\n\n 通货再膨胀的核心是债券。债券自6月以来强劲上扬，收益率曲线趋平，不仅暗示了近期经济增长放缓的风险，同时也显示了随着货币和财政支持的消失，新一周期内持续长期停滞的风险。此外，长期限债券收益率下行主要是由实际收益率推动的，而盈亏平衡通胀具有粘性——这表明对滞涨的担忧日益加剧。\n\n对于后市的走势，高盛策略师Mueller-Glissmann表示，市场可能需要一些催化剂来重新定价更高的利率，本周强劲的就业报告可能有助于明晰日后的趋势。\n此外，他还警告，股市调整的风险已经增加了。此外，过去6个月，标普500回报率和债券收益率变化之间的差距不断扩大，再加上实际利率已经非常低了，且股票估值非常高，这使得股票更易受到经济增长和利率的冲击。\n除了上述原因之外，高盛还在报告中给出了其他理由。\n比如，高盛风险偏好指标（Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator）近期重挫。从指数组成来看，增长乐观情绪（RAI PC1）仍处于压力之下。这意味着尽管往后看欧洲和美国的财报季总体强劲，但是考虑到美国财政刺激措施开始令人失望，以及新冠疫情拖累了消费，市场仍然不相信在年底和新周期会出现更多积极的增长动力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802848391,"gmtCreate":1627770544413,"gmtModify":1703495518251,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802848391","repostId":"1120441766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"<p>As July draws to a close, investors are beginning to pay attention to the hottest market events in August. The Federal Reserve remains the focus, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August typically brings a slowdown in US stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, when nearly half of the companies have already released their earnings reports. However, at least from a historical perspective, the stock market still showed some weak seasonal trends entering September. This is noteworthy, especially considering that inflation and stock valuations remain worrying.</p><p><b>Corporate earnings season</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July, investors can refocus on corporate earnings season. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long run, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. As of the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was entirely in line with analysts' expectations, and even partially exceeded them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 fell 2% due to concerns about Delta virus mutation, experiencing minor fluctuations. However, in late July, the strong performance of the earnings season generally boosted all sectors of the US stock market. Entering August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The performance has caused concern among many investors. There are signs that more countries and regions will tighten restrictions on travel again as the virus spreads further.</p><p>The market cannot anticipate changes in the virus, but if the situation worsens, it could mean that people will return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, namely fixed income, mega-tech stocks and the US dollar.</p><p>Returning to profitability, from large banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Many companies performed quite well in their July reports, including airlines and railroads. One view is that if railways operate well, the broader economy will also develop well, because transportation is often a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor expectations for full-quarter earnings are also rising, with analysts currently forecasting second-quarter earnings growth of 74.2%, compared to a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in several industries (led by finance, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported better-than-expected earnings, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>On the other hand, market weaknesses still exist, such as in the semiconductor sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither company's prospects impressed investors, and both companies' stock prices remained on the defensive. In addition, investors have already priced in expectations of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to significantly exceed expectations or have broad growth potential to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise significantly due to strong earnings.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve policy support and economic data</b></p><p>The principle of \"not fighting the Federal Reserve\" does not seem to have changed. This is a term coined decades ago by traders who believed the Federal Reserve would step in to support the stock market during any downturn. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the Fed remains committed to loose monetary policy and that high inflation may cool down.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rhetoric will influence a \"key indicator\" of global assets: will U.S. Treasury Bond yields resume their upward trend in August, or will they fall below a nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields often help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as technology, while rising yields often help \"cyclical\" sectors such as finance and energy. The tug-of-war between growth and value that continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, many on Wall Street believed that Jackson Hole might be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited stimulus tapering program. That may not be the case now: since the end of March, U.S. Treasury yields have steadily declined, seemingly giving the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. This is a strategy used by the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to be working.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and as of the end of July, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3%. Considering economic growth and high inflation month after month, this is a surprisingly low yield.</p><p>Both Powell and President Biden stated in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most people in the market will be closely watching the July consumer and producer prices released in August, as well as the July employment report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus may now shift more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, this could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>As the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Federal Reserve is ready to take action, or at least predict that the Fed will take stimulus measures. Some economists point out that the Federal Reserve's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities has provided unnecessary ammunition for an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility draws attention</b></p><p>August may be a time for investors to catch their breath. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor was somewhat disrupted last year, but if fears about the pandemic hadn't continued to grow, Wall Street might have a more normal holiday schedule.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 often indicate that people expect less volatility in the future.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that seasonal factors in August were not favorable to the market. Historically, US stocks have been on a downward trend throughout August, making it the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. In the 72 years since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of that year 19 times. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half of the year, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points before rising again.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-31 01:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As July draws to a close, investors are beginning to pay attention to the hottest market events in August. The Federal Reserve remains the focus, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August typically brings a slowdown in US stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, when nearly half of the companies have already released their earnings reports. However, at least from a historical perspective, the stock market still showed some weak seasonal trends entering September. This is noteworthy, especially considering that inflation and stock valuations remain worrying.</p><p><b>Corporate earnings season</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July, investors can refocus on corporate earnings season. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long run, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. As of the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was entirely in line with analysts' expectations, and even partially exceeded them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 fell 2% due to concerns about Delta virus mutation, experiencing minor fluctuations. However, in late July, the strong performance of the earnings season generally boosted all sectors of the US stock market. Entering August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The performance has caused concern among many investors. There are signs that more countries and regions will tighten restrictions on travel again as the virus spreads further.</p><p>The market cannot anticipate changes in the virus, but if the situation worsens, it could mean that people will return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, namely fixed income, mega-tech stocks and the US dollar.</p><p>Returning to profitability, from large banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Many companies performed quite well in their July reports, including airlines and railroads. One view is that if railways operate well, the broader economy will also develop well, because transportation is often a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor expectations for full-quarter earnings are also rising, with analysts currently forecasting second-quarter earnings growth of 74.2%, compared to a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in several industries (led by finance, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported better-than-expected earnings, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>On the other hand, market weaknesses still exist, such as in the semiconductor sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither company's prospects impressed investors, and both companies' stock prices remained on the defensive. In addition, investors have already priced in expectations of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to significantly exceed expectations or have broad growth potential to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise significantly due to strong earnings.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve policy support and economic data</b></p><p>The principle of \"not fighting the Federal Reserve\" does not seem to have changed. This is a term coined decades ago by traders who believed the Federal Reserve would step in to support the stock market during any downturn. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the Fed remains committed to loose monetary policy and that high inflation may cool down.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rhetoric will influence a \"key indicator\" of global assets: will U.S. Treasury Bond yields resume their upward trend in August, or will they fall below a nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields often help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as technology, while rising yields often help \"cyclical\" sectors such as finance and energy. The tug-of-war between growth and value that continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, many on Wall Street believed that Jackson Hole might be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited stimulus tapering program. That may not be the case now: since the end of March, U.S. Treasury yields have steadily declined, seemingly giving the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. This is a strategy used by the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to be working.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and as of the end of July, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3%. Considering economic growth and high inflation month after month, this is a surprisingly low yield.</p><p>Both Powell and President Biden stated in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most people in the market will be closely watching the July consumer and producer prices released in August, as well as the July employment report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus may now shift more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, this could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>As the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Federal Reserve is ready to take action, or at least predict that the Fed will take stimulus measures. Some economists point out that the Federal Reserve's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities has provided unnecessary ammunition for an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility draws attention</b></p><p>August may be a time for investors to catch their breath. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor was somewhat disrupted last year, but if fears about the pandemic hadn't continued to grow, Wall Street might have a more normal holiday schedule.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 often indicate that people expect less volatility in the future.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that seasonal factors in August were not favorable to the market. Historically, US stocks have been on a downward trend throughout August, making it the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. In the 72 years since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of that year 19 times. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half of the year, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points before rising again.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806523083,"gmtCreate":1627681598742,"gmtModify":1703494502516,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806523083","repostId":"1198370900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198370900","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股官方账号，专注让专业更简单","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"56","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7"},"pubTimestamp":1627658786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198370900?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 23:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Behind the \"buying a house with a voucher,\" is a major revolution in the real estate market really coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198370900","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"2021年春节过后，原本平静的武汉楼市突然躁动起来。\n短短两个月的时间里，武汉光谷关山大道的中建大公馆、金地格林东郡、泛悦城等楼盘，从2万元/平方米左右的价格，涨到了3、4万元/平方米。\n而房价飞涨的","content":"<p><b>After the Spring Festival in 2021, the previously calm Wuhan real estate market suddenly became restless.</b></p><p>In just two months, the prices of residential projects such as China Construction Grand Mansion, Gemdale Green East County, and Fanyue City on Guanshan Avenue in Optics Valley, Wuhan, have risen from around 20,000 yuan per square meter to 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per square meter.</p><p>Behind the soaring housing prices are investors from Shenzhen, Xuzhou, Zaozhuang and other places who are taking advantage of Wuhan's relatively relaxed household registration and purchase restriction policies to engage in frenzied \"speculation\".</p><p>At the time, Wuhan locals who suffered greatly told the media, \"I hate these out-of-town speculators. When will the government strictly restrict purchases?\"</p><p>The people of Wuhan did not wait long. Three months later, on July 28, the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau released a draft for public comment on strengthening the management of home purchase qualifications. Following the release of the draft opinion, the topic of \"Wuhan will implement the practice of buying houses with housing vouchers\" quickly sparked heated discussions online.</p><p>Is Wuhan about to enter the era of \"buying a house with a housing voucher\"? Some people supported this news, some questioned it, and some worried that \"real estate speculation\" would turn into \"speculative housing tickets\".</p><p>However, regardless of how it is interpreted, the signal of \"tightening\" in the real estate market released by Wuhan is clear. In fact, Wuhan is not the only city that is \"tightening\" its real estate policies.</p><p>Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\" found that since the beginning of 2021, local governments, including those in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, have released stricter regulatory policies for the real estate market.</p><p>As the after-school education and training industry undergoes a disruptive transformation, many people can't help but ask:<b>Is a major transformation coming to China's real estate market?</b></p><p>Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance and chief economist of IPG China, told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"These policies will increase the difficulty and cost of purchasing housing for investment purposes in the short term, thereby curbing the overheating of the housing market to some extent. However, in the long run, if the actual market supply and demand relationship does not change, and if the population, land, and financial policies that affect housing prices do not make major changes, it will be difficult to have a substantial impact on housing prices.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9284d07634672a560d0f50a2e3314\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01. What exactly is \"buying a house with a voucher\" in Wuhan?</b></p><p>What exactly does Wuhan's \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" policy, which has sparked heated discussions online, stipulate?</p><p>On July 28, in order to adhere to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and further strengthen the management of housing purchase qualifications in Wuhan, the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau issued the \"Notice of the Wuhan Municipal Housing Security and Housing Administration Bureau on Strengthening the Management of Housing Purchase Qualifications (Draft for Public Comment)\" and solicited public opinions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8d8c23e8cca1ee4ca8d5d15731bf9\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the draft opinion, homebuyers who meet the requirements for purchasing housing in restricted areas can apply for home purchase eligibility through official platforms or through developers and real estate agencies.</p><p>The housing management departments of each district shall complete the home purchase eligibility determination within 48 hours from the time of application and provide feedback on the determination results to the applicant. The home purchase eligibility determination results shall be valid for 60 days from the date of issuance.</p><p>The draft for comments also requires that after the home purchase registration is completed, the results of the home purchase eligibility determination are locked in immediately, and no further home purchase registration is allowed during the locking period. After the property opens for sale, the results of the purchase eligibility verification will be automatically released.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The idea of 'buying a house with a voucher' in Wuhan is currently in the stage of soliciting opinions. This is a proposed institutional design to strengthen the control of the real estate market and base it on the eligibility of homebuyers.\"</p><p>So, what impact will the introduction of the policy of \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" have on Wuhan's real estate market?</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The policy of buying a house with a voucher is a patch to the previous policy and a supplement to the purchase restriction policy. To a certain extent, it can curb market chaos, play a positive role in regulating real estate market transactions, and has effectively cracked down on some developers who create false hot sales scenes. To a certain extent, it can curb speculation.\"</p><p>Zhu Xiaohong, president of the China Luxury Housing Research Institute, told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"Buying houses with housing vouchers is similar to housing interventions in Hong Kong and South Korea. It is beneficial for combating speculation and controlling excessive consumption of housing products, but we must prevent 'using housing vouchers for personal gain' and 'buying and selling housing vouchers,' and ensure that housing vouchers are given to the right people.\"</p><p>Bai Wenxi expressed similar concerns, saying, \"On the surface, housing vouchers will control demand and crack down on speculation, but in reality, they are done by suppressing demand and not increasing supply. If used improperly, they may actually exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand, lead to corruption of power, and exacerbate various disguised and underground speculation.\"</p><p><b>02. Local governments have introduced a series of policies, with clear signals of \"tightening\".</b></p><p>In fact, Wuhan's policy adjustments regarding home purchase eligibility may have already begun as early as 2020.</p><p>In January last year, Wuhan implemented a fully online verification process for commercial housing qualifications. Prospective homebuyers can apply for qualifications and check the results through the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau. If the verification is passed, they can obtain verification materials such as a number and QR code. These materials are valid for purchasing a house within 60 days, and a new application is required after the expiration date.</p><p>It can be seen that as early as 2020, Wuhan had already established the prototype of the \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" mechanism. This draft for comments is also a supplement and improvement to the existing policies.</p><p>Besides Wuhan, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, second- and third-tier cities such as Jiaxing, Foshan, and Wuxi, as well as central government departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, have also successively released a series of policies to strengthen the supervision of the real estate market.</p><p>On January 5, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, reiterated in a media interview the policy principles of adhering to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and implementing a long-term mechanism for the real estate market. He stated that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" will remain the main policy theme in 2021, while signaling that the long-term mechanism is being continuously implemented and improved.</p><p>For example, Shanghai also explicitly stated in January that it would continue to implement the property tax pilot program. Meanwhile, Shanghai has also stipulated, in response to the phenomenon of \"fake divorces but real home purchases,\" that if either spouse purchases commercial housing within three years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned by the spouse shall be calculated based on the total number of housing units owned by the family before the divorce. Adjust the value-added tax exemption period. The exemption period for value-added tax on individual housing sales will be increased from 2 years to 5 years.</p><p>In March, Xi'an also released a new purchase restriction policy, stipulating that homebuyers who fraudulently obtain or circumvent the purchase restriction policy through \"nominee shareholding\" will be included in the city's list of dishonest homebuyers and will be prohibited from purchasing homes for five years.</p><p>In June, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Taxation Administration, and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice that four non-tax revenues, including revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, would be transferred to the tax authorities for collection, which once sparked heated discussions.</p><p>On July 23, eight departments, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Public Security, jointly issued a notice on continuing to rectify and standardize the real estate market order. The notice aims to comprehensively regulate the real estate market order from four aspects: real estate development, housing sales, housing rental, and property services.</p><p>On July 30, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) held a system-wide mid-year work symposium and a teleconference on discipline inspection and supervision work in 2021. The meeting emphasized the need to strictly implement the \"three lines and four tiers\" and real estate loan concentration requirements to prevent bank and insurance funds from illegally flowing into the real estate market.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm,\" since January this year, local governments and relevant central departments have issued more than 40 regulatory and control policies targeting the real estate market and its derivative services. The sheer number and density are relatively rare in recent years.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"There are three reasons for the current adjustment of real estate policies: first, to prevent financial risks caused by real estate; second, under the domestic circulation model, it is necessary to reduce the total cost of economic operation, represented by real estate; and third, to increase the willingness to have children and maintain sustainable population development, it is necessary to reduce the pressure on housing costs.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a08ad922ffa471f7aea8f0400a29bb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03. Real estate companies' stock prices pullback/retracement sharply as their glory fades.</b></p><p>The policy changes have also directly affected listed companies in the real estate industry.</p><p>Benefiting from the rapid development of China's real estate market in recent years, a large number of behemoth real estate listed companies have emerged in China, and real estate companies were once regarded as a symbol of \"not lacking money\".</p><p>Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin, who has passed away<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>Chairman Zuo Hui and other real estate tycoons have all ascended to the throne of \"richest man\".</p><p>However, as the government began to regulate the \"overheated\" real estate market and introduced a series of strict regulatory policies, these listed real estate companies also encountered the problem of \"a large ship is difficult to turn around\", resulting in problems such as broken capital chains, declining revenue, falling stock prices, and high debts.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium with key real estate enterprises in Beijing, clarifying the rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises, which were the \"three red lines\" that had been rumored many times in the industry.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm,\" more than half of the 40 leading real estate companies listed on the Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen their stock prices fall more than 30% from their peak pullback/retracement within 52 weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face4ce6faa97c257718c9108ee3c3b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1003\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, during the collective \"plunge\" in A-shares on Monday and Tuesday, A-share real estate stocks also fell sharply due to concerns about policy regulation in the real estate market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000718\">Suning Universal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600773\">Tibet Urban Investment</a>It once fell by more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfca5e8a01f143057cf5d1f41a95b53\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>04. Is a major revolution in the real estate market coming?</b></p><p>Wuhan's \"buying a house with housing coupons\" policy has reminded many people of the \"grain coupons\" and \"meat coupons\" of the planned economy era. So, does \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" really mean returning to the planned economy era? Will this trigger other cities to follow suit?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb31adddcc3e0bf4814fad90b355b71b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bai Wenxi stated that China has bid farewell to the era of tickets for nearly 30 years, and the introduction of Wuhan's \"housing tickets\" has touched upon and evoked people's memories of the era of insufficient supply and tickets everywhere during the planned economy era. As one of the industries with the highest public attention, the Wuhan \"housing tickets\" incident, which is still in the works, will most likely be pushed to the \"trending topics\".</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that housing vouchers are a system designed to compress demand through entry controls, thereby changing the supply and demand relationship in the housing market and preventing the housing market from overheating. However, real estate market regulation logically needs to start from both the supply and demand sides. While limiting and suppressing demand with quantity and price tools, it is also necessary to balance the supply and demand relationship by increasing market supply.</p><p>\"Therefore, to truly stabilize the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, we must minimize and eliminate various control measures on both the supply and demand sides, use price mechanisms to guide the allocation of resources and factors and reconstruct the supply and demand relationship, and certainly not restore the tickets of the planned economy era,\" Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5109cefd2de75f41c0a1a0f3da6acbb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Whether it's Wuhan's recent policy of \"buying a house with a housing voucher,\" a series of regulatory policies on the real estate market introduced by local governments this year, or the rumored upcoming \"real estate tax,\" do these mean that China's real estate market is about to undergo a major transformation?</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The introduction of the real estate tax may usher in another reshuffle of the real estate market.\"</p><p>\"Judging from the current adjustments to real estate policies, adhering to the principle that 'housing is for living in, not for speculation' is the main theme of my country's real estate market. Under this principle, first, it is necessary to curb the rapid rise in housing prices through policy regulation and promote the market to gradually return to a rational stage; second, it is necessary to continuously improve and standardize the real estate market system, promptly crack down on some behaviors that speculate on housing prices and exploit policy loopholes, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.\" Third, limited resources should be allocated to first-time homebuyers to provide a more stable real estate environment.</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center believes that with the introduction of these policies, the interests of genuine first-time homebuyers have been protected, and their home-buying mentality has gradually become more rational, which has played a certain role in curbing the rapid rise in housing prices. In the long run, after strict policy regulation, housing prices in first-tier cities will tend to stabilize.</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that if a property tax is introduced soon, it will indeed mean a major transformation in the real estate market. However, in fact, the property tax has not yet been submitted for review according to legislative procedures and will not be introduced soon, nor is there a timetable.</p><p>Bai Wenxi stated that if these policies do not start with expanding the supply side, but only adopt measures such as quantitative tools to control demand entry, such as housing vouchers, and price tools to control demand, such as mortgage ratios and interest rates, the result may only be to stir up trouble, or even to cause prices to rise further with each adjustment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the \"buying a house with a voucher,\" is a major revolution in the real estate market really coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the \"buying a house with a voucher,\" is a major revolution in the real estate market really coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/56\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-30 23:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>After the Spring Festival in 2021, the previously calm Wuhan real estate market suddenly became restless.</b></p><p>In just two months, the prices of residential projects such as China Construction Grand Mansion, Gemdale Green East County, and Fanyue City on Guanshan Avenue in Optics Valley, Wuhan, have risen from around 20,000 yuan per square meter to 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per square meter.</p><p>Behind the soaring housing prices are investors from Shenzhen, Xuzhou, Zaozhuang and other places who are taking advantage of Wuhan's relatively relaxed household registration and purchase restriction policies to engage in frenzied \"speculation\".</p><p>At the time, Wuhan locals who suffered greatly told the media, \"I hate these out-of-town speculators. When will the government strictly restrict purchases?\"</p><p>The people of Wuhan did not wait long. Three months later, on July 28, the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau released a draft for public comment on strengthening the management of home purchase qualifications. Following the release of the draft opinion, the topic of \"Wuhan will implement the practice of buying houses with housing vouchers\" quickly sparked heated discussions online.</p><p>Is Wuhan about to enter the era of \"buying a house with a housing voucher\"? Some people supported this news, some questioned it, and some worried that \"real estate speculation\" would turn into \"speculative housing tickets\".</p><p>However, regardless of how it is interpreted, the signal of \"tightening\" in the real estate market released by Wuhan is clear. In fact, Wuhan is not the only city that is \"tightening\" its real estate policies.</p><p>Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\" found that since the beginning of 2021, local governments, including those in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, have released stricter regulatory policies for the real estate market.</p><p>As the after-school education and training industry undergoes a disruptive transformation, many people can't help but ask:<b>Is a major transformation coming to China's real estate market?</b></p><p>Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance and chief economist of IPG China, told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"These policies will increase the difficulty and cost of purchasing housing for investment purposes in the short term, thereby curbing the overheating of the housing market to some extent. However, in the long run, if the actual market supply and demand relationship does not change, and if the population, land, and financial policies that affect housing prices do not make major changes, it will be difficult to have a substantial impact on housing prices.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9284d07634672a560d0f50a2e3314\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01. What exactly is \"buying a house with a voucher\" in Wuhan?</b></p><p>What exactly does Wuhan's \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" policy, which has sparked heated discussions online, stipulate?</p><p>On July 28, in order to adhere to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and further strengthen the management of housing purchase qualifications in Wuhan, the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau issued the \"Notice of the Wuhan Municipal Housing Security and Housing Administration Bureau on Strengthening the Management of Housing Purchase Qualifications (Draft for Public Comment)\" and solicited public opinions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8d8c23e8cca1ee4ca8d5d15731bf9\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the draft opinion, homebuyers who meet the requirements for purchasing housing in restricted areas can apply for home purchase eligibility through official platforms or through developers and real estate agencies.</p><p>The housing management departments of each district shall complete the home purchase eligibility determination within 48 hours from the time of application and provide feedback on the determination results to the applicant. The home purchase eligibility determination results shall be valid for 60 days from the date of issuance.</p><p>The draft for comments also requires that after the home purchase registration is completed, the results of the home purchase eligibility determination are locked in immediately, and no further home purchase registration is allowed during the locking period. After the property opens for sale, the results of the purchase eligibility verification will be automatically released.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The idea of 'buying a house with a voucher' in Wuhan is currently in the stage of soliciting opinions. This is a proposed institutional design to strengthen the control of the real estate market and base it on the eligibility of homebuyers.\"</p><p>So, what impact will the introduction of the policy of \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" have on Wuhan's real estate market?</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The policy of buying a house with a voucher is a patch to the previous policy and a supplement to the purchase restriction policy. To a certain extent, it can curb market chaos, play a positive role in regulating real estate market transactions, and has effectively cracked down on some developers who create false hot sales scenes. To a certain extent, it can curb speculation.\"</p><p>Zhu Xiaohong, president of the China Luxury Housing Research Institute, told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"Buying houses with housing vouchers is similar to housing interventions in Hong Kong and South Korea. It is beneficial for combating speculation and controlling excessive consumption of housing products, but we must prevent 'using housing vouchers for personal gain' and 'buying and selling housing vouchers,' and ensure that housing vouchers are given to the right people.\"</p><p>Bai Wenxi expressed similar concerns, saying, \"On the surface, housing vouchers will control demand and crack down on speculation, but in reality, they are done by suppressing demand and not increasing supply. If used improperly, they may actually exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand, lead to corruption of power, and exacerbate various disguised and underground speculation.\"</p><p><b>02. Local governments have introduced a series of policies, with clear signals of \"tightening\".</b></p><p>In fact, Wuhan's policy adjustments regarding home purchase eligibility may have already begun as early as 2020.</p><p>In January last year, Wuhan implemented a fully online verification process for commercial housing qualifications. Prospective homebuyers can apply for qualifications and check the results through the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau. If the verification is passed, they can obtain verification materials such as a number and QR code. These materials are valid for purchasing a house within 60 days, and a new application is required after the expiration date.</p><p>It can be seen that as early as 2020, Wuhan had already established the prototype of the \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" mechanism. This draft for comments is also a supplement and improvement to the existing policies.</p><p>Besides Wuhan, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, second- and third-tier cities such as Jiaxing, Foshan, and Wuxi, as well as central government departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, have also successively released a series of policies to strengthen the supervision of the real estate market.</p><p>On January 5, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, reiterated in a media interview the policy principles of adhering to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and implementing a long-term mechanism for the real estate market. He stated that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" will remain the main policy theme in 2021, while signaling that the long-term mechanism is being continuously implemented and improved.</p><p>For example, Shanghai also explicitly stated in January that it would continue to implement the property tax pilot program. Meanwhile, Shanghai has also stipulated, in response to the phenomenon of \"fake divorces but real home purchases,\" that if either spouse purchases commercial housing within three years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned by the spouse shall be calculated based on the total number of housing units owned by the family before the divorce. Adjust the value-added tax exemption period. The exemption period for value-added tax on individual housing sales will be increased from 2 years to 5 years.</p><p>In March, Xi'an also released a new purchase restriction policy, stipulating that homebuyers who fraudulently obtain or circumvent the purchase restriction policy through \"nominee shareholding\" will be included in the city's list of dishonest homebuyers and will be prohibited from purchasing homes for five years.</p><p>In June, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Taxation Administration, and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice that four non-tax revenues, including revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, would be transferred to the tax authorities for collection, which once sparked heated discussions.</p><p>On July 23, eight departments, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Public Security, jointly issued a notice on continuing to rectify and standardize the real estate market order. The notice aims to comprehensively regulate the real estate market order from four aspects: real estate development, housing sales, housing rental, and property services.</p><p>On July 30, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) held a system-wide mid-year work symposium and a teleconference on discipline inspection and supervision work in 2021. The meeting emphasized the need to strictly implement the \"three lines and four tiers\" and real estate loan concentration requirements to prevent bank and insurance funds from illegally flowing into the real estate market.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm,\" since January this year, local governments and relevant central departments have issued more than 40 regulatory and control policies targeting the real estate market and its derivative services. The sheer number and density are relatively rare in recent years.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"There are three reasons for the current adjustment of real estate policies: first, to prevent financial risks caused by real estate; second, under the domestic circulation model, it is necessary to reduce the total cost of economic operation, represented by real estate; and third, to increase the willingness to have children and maintain sustainable population development, it is necessary to reduce the pressure on housing costs.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a08ad922ffa471f7aea8f0400a29bb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03. Real estate companies' stock prices pullback/retracement sharply as their glory fades.</b></p><p>The policy changes have also directly affected listed companies in the real estate industry.</p><p>Benefiting from the rapid development of China's real estate market in recent years, a large number of behemoth real estate listed companies have emerged in China, and real estate companies were once regarded as a symbol of \"not lacking money\".</p><p>Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin, who has passed away<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>Chairman Zuo Hui and other real estate tycoons have all ascended to the throne of \"richest man\".</p><p>However, as the government began to regulate the \"overheated\" real estate market and introduced a series of strict regulatory policies, these listed real estate companies also encountered the problem of \"a large ship is difficult to turn around\", resulting in problems such as broken capital chains, declining revenue, falling stock prices, and high debts.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium with key real estate enterprises in Beijing, clarifying the rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises, which were the \"three red lines\" that had been rumored many times in the industry.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm,\" more than half of the 40 leading real estate companies listed on the Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen their stock prices fall more than 30% from their peak pullback/retracement within 52 weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face4ce6faa97c257718c9108ee3c3b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1003\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, during the collective \"plunge\" in A-shares on Monday and Tuesday, A-share real estate stocks also fell sharply due to concerns about policy regulation in the real estate market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000718\">Suning Universal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600773\">Tibet Urban Investment</a>It once fell by more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfca5e8a01f143057cf5d1f41a95b53\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>04. Is a major revolution in the real estate market coming?</b></p><p>Wuhan's \"buying a house with housing coupons\" policy has reminded many people of the \"grain coupons\" and \"meat coupons\" of the planned economy era. So, does \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" really mean returning to the planned economy era? Will this trigger other cities to follow suit?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb31adddcc3e0bf4814fad90b355b71b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bai Wenxi stated that China has bid farewell to the era of tickets for nearly 30 years, and the introduction of Wuhan's \"housing tickets\" has touched upon and evoked people's memories of the era of insufficient supply and tickets everywhere during the planned economy era. As one of the industries with the highest public attention, the Wuhan \"housing tickets\" incident, which is still in the works, will most likely be pushed to the \"trending topics\".</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that housing vouchers are a system designed to compress demand through entry controls, thereby changing the supply and demand relationship in the housing market and preventing the housing market from overheating. However, real estate market regulation logically needs to start from both the supply and demand sides. While limiting and suppressing demand with quantity and price tools, it is also necessary to balance the supply and demand relationship by increasing market supply.</p><p>\"Therefore, to truly stabilize the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, we must minimize and eliminate various control measures on both the supply and demand sides, use price mechanisms to guide the allocation of resources and factors and reconstruct the supply and demand relationship, and certainly not restore the tickets of the planned economy era,\" Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5109cefd2de75f41c0a1a0f3da6acbb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Whether it's Wuhan's recent policy of \"buying a house with a housing voucher,\" a series of regulatory policies on the real estate market introduced by local governments this year, or the rumored upcoming \"real estate tax,\" do these mean that China's real estate market is about to undergo a major transformation?</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The introduction of the real estate tax may usher in another reshuffle of the real estate market.\"</p><p>\"Judging from the current adjustments to real estate policies, adhering to the principle that 'housing is for living in, not for speculation' is the main theme of my country's real estate market. Under this principle, first, it is necessary to curb the rapid rise in housing prices through policy regulation and promote the market to gradually return to a rational stage; second, it is necessary to continuously improve and standardize the real estate market system, promptly crack down on some behaviors that speculate on housing prices and exploit policy loopholes, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.\" Third, limited resources should be allocated to first-time homebuyers to provide a more stable real estate environment.</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center believes that with the introduction of these policies, the interests of genuine first-time homebuyers have been protected, and their home-buying mentality has gradually become more rational, which has played a certain role in curbing the rapid rise in housing prices. In the long run, after strict policy regulation, housing prices in first-tier cities will tend to stabilize.</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that if a property tax is introduced soon, it will indeed mean a major transformation in the real estate market. However, in fact, the property tax has not yet been submitted for review according to legislative procedures and will not be introduced soon, nor is there a timetable.</p><p>Bai Wenxi stated that if these policies do not start with expanding the supply side, but only adopt measures such as quantitative tools to control demand entry, such as housing vouchers, and price tools to control demand, such as mortgage ratios and interest rates, the result may only be to stir up trouble, or even to cause prices to rise further with each adjustment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198370900","content_text":"2021年春节过后，原本平静的武汉楼市突然躁动起来。\n短短两个月的时间里，武汉光谷关山大道的中建大公馆、金地格林东郡、泛悦城等楼盘，从2万元/平方米左右的价格，涨到了3、4万元/平方米。\n而房价飞涨的背后，是来自深圳、徐州、枣庄等地的投资客们，利用武汉市相对宽松的落户政策和限购政策，疯狂“炒房”。\n当时，深受其害的武汉当地人对媒体表示：“恨死了这些外地炒房客，政府啥时候能严格限购啊？”\n武汉人民并未等太久。3个月后，7月28日，武汉市房管局发布了关于加强购房资格管理的征求意见稿。意见稿发布后，“武汉将实施凭房票买房”的话题也迅速在网络上引起热议。\n武汉要进入“凭房票买房”时代了？对这个消息，有人支持，有人质疑，还有人担心“炒房”会变成“炒房票”。\n不过，无论如何解读，武汉释放出的楼市“收紧”的信号则是明确的。实际上，正在“收紧”楼市政策的不止武汉一个城市。\n凤凰网《风暴眼》发现，进入2021年以来，包括北京、上海、广州、深圳、杭州等在内的地方政府，都发布了针对房地产市场的更为严格的监管政策。\n随着校外教培行业迎来颠覆式的大变革，很多人也不禁发问：中国楼市的大变革，也要来了吗？\n中国企业资本联盟副理事长、IPG中国首席经济学家柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“这些政策在短期内会加大和提升投资性需求的购房难度与成本，从而从一定程度上抑制楼市过热问题。但长期来看，如果实际的市场供求关系不改变，影响房价的人口、土地、金融政策不作大的改变，则很难对房价产生实质性影响。”\n\n01、武汉的“凭票买房”，到底是什么？\n在网上引起热议的武汉“凭房票买房”的政策，到底规定了哪些内容呢？\n7月28日，为坚持“房住不炒”定位，进一步加强武汉市购房资格管理工作，武汉市房管局发布《市住房保障房管局关于加强购房资格管理工作的通知（征求意见稿）》，并公开征求意见。\n\n根据意见稿，在购房资格申请上，符合限购区域购买住房的意向购房人可通过官方平台或者通过开发商和中介机构申请购房资格。\n各区房管部门在申请之时起48个小时内完成购房资格认定，并将认定结果反馈给申请人，购房资格认定结果自出具之日起60日内有效。\n《征求意见稿》还要求，购房登记完成后，购房资格认定结果即时锁定，锁定期间不得再次进行购房登记。开盘销售后，购房资格认定结果自动解除锁定。\n柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“武汉‘凭票买房’的相关设想目前尚处于征求意见阶段，这是为加强楼市管控、立足于购房者资格准入提出的拟意中的制度设计。”\n那么，“凭房票购房”的政策出台后，会对武汉的楼市造成哪些影响呢？\n诸葛找房数据研究中心对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“凭票买房政策，是前期政策的一个打补丁新政，也是对限购政策的补充完善，一定程度上可以遏制市场乱象，对规范房地产市场交易有着积极作用，较有力地打击了部分制造虚假热售场面的开发商，一定程度上可以抑制炒房现象。”\n中国豪宅研究院院长朱晓红对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“凭票买房与香港、韩国的住房干预有异曲同工之处。对打击炒房，控制过度消费住房产品有好处，但要防止‘以房票谋私’和‘房票买卖’，一定要确保房票给对人。”\n柏文喜也表达了类似的担忧，他表示：“房票表面上会控制需求和打击炒房，但实际上是通过压抑需求和不增加供给进行的，如果运用不当，可能反而会加剧供求矛盾，引发权力腐败、加剧各类变相炒房和地下炒房等行为。”\n02、地方政府密集出台政策，“收紧”信号明显\n实际上，武汉市对于购房资格的政策调整，可能早在2020年就已经开始了。\n去年1月，武汉实行了商品房资格核查全程网办，意向购房者可通过武汉市房管局官网申请资格并查询结果，如果通过审核，即可获取编号和二维码等审核资料信息，该资料60日内购房有效，过期需重新申请。\n可以看出，早在2020年武汉市就已搭建出“凭房票买房”的机制雏形。而此次的征求意见稿，也是对先关政策的补充和完善。\n而除了武汉外，北上广深等一线城市，嘉兴、佛山、无锡等二三线城市，以及住建部等中央部门，也都陆续发布了一系列政策来对房地产市场加强监管。\n1月5日，住建部部长王蒙徽在接受媒体采访时，重申了坚持房住不炒，落实房地产长效机制等政策原则，表示2021年房住不炒仍然作为政策主基调不改变，同时长效机制不断落实完善的信号。\n例如，上海市也在1月份明确继续实施房产税试点。同时，上海市还针对“假离婚，真购房”现象，规定：夫妻离异的，任何一方自夫妻离异之日起3年内购买商品住房的，其拥有住房套数按离异前家庭总套数计算。调整增值税征免年限。将个人对外销售住房增值税征免年限从2年提高至5年。\n3月，西安也发布限购新政，规定购房人骗取或通过“代持”方式规避限购政策的，其本人及“代持人”将列入我市购房失信人员名册，5年内不得购房\n6月，财政部、自然资源部、税务总局、人民银行联合发布通知，国有土地使用权出让收入等四项政府非税收入将划转税务部门征收，一度引起热议。\n7月23日，住建部、发改委、公安部等八部门共同发布关于持续整治规范房地产市场秩序的通知，从房地产开发、房屋买卖、住房租赁以及物业服务四个方面切入，对房地产市场秩序进行全面规范。\n7月30日，银保监会召开全系统2021年年中工作座谈会暨纪检监察工作（电视电话）座谈会。会议强调，要严格执行“三线四档”和房地产贷款集中度要求，防止银行保险资金绕道违规流入房地产市场。\n据凤凰网《风暴眼》不完全统计，从今年1月至今，各地政府和中央相关部门共发布了超过40项针对房地产市场以及其衍生服务的监管和调控政策。数量之多，密度之大，在近年来都是比较罕见的。\n柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“目前针对房地产政策的调整的原因有三个：第一是防范房地产引发的金融风险问题；第二是内循环模式下需要降低以房地产为代表的经济运行总成本；第三是提升生育意愿和保持人口可持续发展需要降低居住成本压力。”\n\n03、地产公司“风头不再” 股价大幅回撤\n政策的变化，也直接影响到了地产行业的上市公司身上。\n受益于中国房地产市场近年来的快速发展，中国也诞生了一大批巨无霸类的地产上市公司，地产企业也一度被视为“不差钱”的象征。\n万达董事长王健林、已经去世的贝壳董事长左晖等地产大亨们，都曾登上过“首富”的宝座。\n然而随着国家开始对“过热”的房地产市场进行调控，以及一系列严格的监管政策的出台，这些地产上市公司也纷纷遭遇了“船大难掉头”的难题，资金链断裂、收入下滑、股价下跌、高额负债等问题也随之而来。\n去年8月，住房城乡建设部、人民银行在北京召开重点房地产企业座谈会，明确了重点房地产企业资金监测和融资管理规则，也就是此前业内多次传闻的“三条红线”。\n据凤凰网《风暴眼》不完全统计，在港股和A股上市的40家头部地产公司中，有一半以上的公司股价在52周内距最高点回撤超过30%。\n\n事实上，就在本周一、周二的A股集体“大跳水”中，出于对房地产市场政策监管的担忧情绪，A股地产股也集体大跌，苏宁环球、西藏城投一度跌超10%。\n\n04、楼市的大变革，要来了吗\n武汉“凭房票买房”政策，也让很多人联想到了计划经济时代的“粮票”、“肉票”。那么，“凭房票购房”，是否真的意味着回到计划经济时代？是否又会引发其他城市跟进？\n\n柏文喜表示，中国告别票证时代已近三十年了，而武汉“房票”的推出触碰和勾起了了人们对计划经济年代供给不足、处处票证的时代记忆，房地产作为公众关注度最高的行业之一，尚在酝酿之中的武汉“房票”事件大概率会被推上“热搜”。\n柏文喜认为，房票本身是立足于以准入管制来压缩需求，进而改变楼市供求关系以防止楼市过热的制度设计。但是楼市调控逻辑上需要从供求两端着手，在以数量工具与价格工具限制与压抑需求的同时，还要通过增加市场供给来平衡供求关系。\n“因此，真正要平抑楼市供求关系的话，则要尽量减少和消除供求两端的各类管制措施，以价格机制引导资源和要素配置并重构供求关系，更不能恢复计划经济时代的票证。”柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示。\n\n无论是武汉市此次出台的“凭房票买房”的政策，还是今年以来各地政府出台的一系列对房地产市场的监管政策，抑或是传闻中即将出台的“房地产税”，这些是否意味着中国楼市将迎来一次大变革呢？\n诸葛找房数据研究中心对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“房地产税的出台，或将迎来房地产市场的又一次洗牌。”\n“从目前房地产政策调整来看，坚持房住不炒是我国房地产市场的主基调。在此原则之下，首先需通过政策调控抑制房价上涨过快，促进市场逐渐回归理性阶段；其次，不断完善和规范房地产市场体系，对一些炒作房价、钻政策空子的行为及时进行打击，促进房地产市场健康发展；第三，将有限的资源向刚需群体倾斜，为购房者提供一个更为稳定的房地产环境。”\n诸葛找房数据研究中心认为，随着这些政策出台，真正的刚需群体利益得到保障，购房心态也逐渐理性，对房价过快上涨起到一定的抑制作用。长期来看，一线城市房价在经过严格的政策调控后，房价将趋于平稳运行。\n柏文喜认为，如果房产税真的很快出台，确实意味着房地产市场将迎来一次大变革，但是事实上房地产税按照立法程序尚未提交审议，是不会很快出台，也没有时间表的。\n柏文喜表示，这些政策如果不是从扩大供给端入手，而是仅仅采取控制需求端准入的数量工具如房票、控制需求端的价格工具如按揭成数与利率等措施，结果可能只是扬汤止沸，甚至越调越涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163664076,"gmtCreate":1623883600395,"gmtModify":1703822214254,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163664076","repostId":"1109204514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109204514","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109204514?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve Dot Plot: Median Expectation: Fed to rate hike Twice by the End of 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109204514","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将","content":"<p>While keeping near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, this week's Federal Reserve meeting sent a clear signal that there is a high probability of more than one rate hike two years from now, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after its meeting that members of the Federal Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while maintaining the excess reserve rate (IOER) and the discount rate at 0.10% and 0.25%, respectively.</p><p>As in its post-meeting statements of the previous eight meetings, the Federal Reserve continued to pledge that it would use “all of its” policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Federal Reserve officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for a longer period after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Unlike the last dot plot:</p><p><ul><li>Among the 18 officials who issued their forecasts,<b>Seven people are expected to visit rate hike in 2022.</b>Three more people than expected last time.<b>The number of people accounted for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time are<b>Thirteen people are expected to meet in rate hike in 2023, accounting for over 72% of the total.</b>This is 6 more people than previously expected in rate hike in 2023.<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who predict rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% at that time.</b>number of people<b>More than 61%</b>Five more people than expected last time.<b>Five people are expected to have interest rates exceeding 1% by then.</b>There were 3 more people than expected last time.<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means,<b>If the rate hike is 25 basis points at a time</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials predict that by the end of 2023, the Federal Reserve will conduct at least two rate hike measures on the current basis.</b>。</p><p>Following the FOMC's decision announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through the 1.50% and 1.51% barriers, turning positive intraday and rising nearly 2 basis points. U.S. stocks extended their losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 down nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver plunged, with spot gold falling 0.5% again intraday and falling below $1,850, a short-term drop of more than $10. Bitcoin narrowed its losses, returning above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index broke through the 90.70 and 90.80 levels, hitting a one-month high.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Dot Plot: Median Expectation: Fed to rate hike Twice by the End of 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Dot Plot: Median Expectation: Fed to rate hike Twice by the End of 2023\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While keeping near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, this week's Federal Reserve meeting sent a clear signal that there is a high probability of more than one rate hike two years from now, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after its meeting that members of the Federal Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while maintaining the excess reserve rate (IOER) and the discount rate at 0.10% and 0.25%, respectively.</p><p>As in its post-meeting statements of the previous eight meetings, the Federal Reserve continued to pledge that it would use “all of its” policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Federal Reserve officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for a longer period after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Unlike the last dot plot:</p><p><ul><li>Among the 18 officials who issued their forecasts,<b>Seven people are expected to visit rate hike in 2022.</b>Three more people than expected last time.<b>The number of people accounted for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time are<b>Thirteen people are expected to meet in rate hike in 2023, accounting for over 72% of the total.</b>This is 6 more people than previously expected in rate hike in 2023.<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who predict rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% at that time.</b>number of people<b>More than 61%</b>Five more people than expected last time.<b>Five people are expected to have interest rates exceeding 1% by then.</b>There were 3 more people than expected last time.<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means,<b>If the rate hike is 25 basis points at a time</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials predict that by the end of 2023, the Federal Reserve will conduct at least two rate hike measures on the current basis.</b>。</p><p>Following the FOMC's decision announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through the 1.50% and 1.51% barriers, turning positive intraday and rising nearly 2 basis points. U.S. stocks extended their losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 down nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver plunged, with spot gold falling 0.5% again intraday and falling below $1,850, a short-term drop of more than $10. Bitcoin narrowed its losses, returning above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index broke through the 90.70 and 90.80 levels, hitting a one-month high.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109204514","content_text":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，符合市场预期，同时将超额准备金利率（IOER）和贴现利率仍分别维持在0.10%和0.25%。\n和前八次会后声明一样，美联储继续承诺，将为了支持美国经济而运用联储“所有范围”的政策工具。\n会后公布的点阵图显示，和今年3月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。不同于上次点阵图的是：\n\n在18名发布预期的官员中，本次有7人预计2022年将加息，比上次这样预期的人数多3人，人数占比将近40%。\n本次18人中有13人预计2023年会加息，人数占比超过72%，比上次预期2023年加息者多6人。\n在预计2023年加息的这13人中，有11人预计届时利率将超过0.5%，人数占比超过61%，比上次这样预期者多5人，预计届时利率超过1%的有5人，比上次这样预期者多3人，人数占比将近30%。\n\n这意味着，若一次加息25个基点，那么，本次有六成以上的多数官员都预计，到2023年末，美联储将在当前基础上至少两次加息。\n在美东下午2点FOMC决策公布后，10年期美债收益率升破1.50%和1.51%两道关口，日内转涨并升近2个基点。美股跌幅扩大，道指跌近370点或超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，纳指跌0.7%。5分钟后，道指跌幅小幅收窄至285点，标普500指数和纳指均跌0.7%。金银跳水，现货黄金日内重新下跌0.5%并失守1850美元，短线跌超10美元。比特币跌幅收窄，重回3.9万美元上方，美元指数升破90.70和90.80两道关口，刷新一个月高位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189506898,"gmtCreate":1623280598514,"gmtModify":1704199806595,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189506898","repostId":"2142824851","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142824851","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623274459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142824851?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 05:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Foreign media headlines: US SEC chairman proposes broad evaluation of stock trading rules","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142824851","media":"新浪财经","summary":"麦朴思表示，必须密切关注央行的举动。美国证券交易委员会主席提议对股票交易规则进行广泛评估华尔街的最高监管机构呼吁对美国股票市场交易规则进行一次广泛评估。美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler周三表示，他要求该机构的工作人员审查与股票交易相关的一系列问题，包括所谓以最佳条件执行交易的要求。他还表示，股票交易结算流程可以缩短到同一天。此前，美元的疲软推动MSCI新兴市场货币指数创历史新高。","content":"<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. The \"Godfather of Emerging Markets\": \"Confusion and disorientation\" led to a \"crazy\" market trend.</b><b>2. The unexpected rise in US wage levels adds another reason to worry about inflation.</b><b>3. Bitcoin has a long and arduous road ahead for becoming a \"digital gold\".</b><b>4. The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a broad evaluation of stock trading rules.</b><b>5. Kramer: meme stocks \"should be in casinos,\" not Wall Street.</b><b>6. During a period of calm in the foreign exchange market, now is the time to be bullish on emerging market currencies.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7d81f970caefa3d5cd2178ddbc23d2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>\"Godfather of Emerging Markets\": \"Confusion and Disorientation\" Lead to a \"Crazy\" Market Trend</b></p><p>Mark Mobius, the “godfather of emerging markets,” warned that market volatility and the next steps of central banks must be monitored “very carefully,” and believes that the “crazy movement” of assets such as Bitcoin is driven by “disorientation and confusion.”</p><p>As the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation rises, the market is...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>In particular, speculation about when the Federal Reserve might begin tapering its asset purchases has been rife for months. Mai Pusi stated that the central bank's actions must be closely monitored.</p><p>“I think any decline in the money supply due to the central bank exiting its easing policy would be very detrimental to the market. So I think we have to watch this very carefully,” Maps said. “We are in a very uncertain period, that’s for sure.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0176e073727c80bb512179a896c4837f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The unexpected rise in US wages adds another reason to worry about inflation.</b></p><p>The unexpected rise in wage levels in the United States has given financial markets new reasons to worry about inflation.</p><p>Many policymakers and economists believe the price surge is temporary, partly because they did not expect wage increases to be so high. For many years, the growth of new capital from low-income groups has been relatively stagnant.</p><p>The number of employed people in the United States is still far below pre-pandemic levels, and most of the jobs currently created are in low-wage industries such as restaurants and tourism.</p><p>But last week's jobs report showed that average hourly wages were higher than expected for the second consecutive month. Regardless of the unemployment figures, the labor supply has proven to be inadequate, prompting many employers to raise wages or offer bonuses to attract talent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7446995499804ec7176aab7dbe841740\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bitcoin has a long and arduous road ahead for it to become a \"digital gold\".</b></p><p>It doesn't seem like enough for Bitcoin to serve as \"digital gold\"—a stable, modern way to store wealth and hedge against economic trends.</p><p>Bitcoin volatility remains high, and prices have fallen sharply, from a high of around $63,000 in mid-April to around $35,000 today. Its volatility far exceeds that of gold, while Bitcoin price movements are largely irregular. This means that the digital token is not as good as gold in terms of hedging.</p><p>Some, however, believe that this erratic movement in Bitcoin is advantageous because it lacks correlation and may be an excellent portfolio diversification option. However, it is a poor choice when seeking safe-haven assets.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0d306860b243186c6876684697f692\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a broad evaluation of stock trading rules.</b></p><p>Wall Street's top regulator has called for a broad review of U.S. stock market trading rules.</p><p>U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said Wednesday that he has asked the agency's staff to review a range of issues related to stock trading, including the so-called requirement to execute transactions on the best possible terms. He also stated that the stock trading settlement process could be shortened to the same day.</p><p>In a speech prepared for the Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Fintech Conference, he said, \"I believe that shortening the standard settlement cycle can reduce the costs and risks in our markets.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a969b09f89902d657ab0d88f0be2a432\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Kramer: meme stocks \"should appear in casinos\" instead of Wall Street</b></p><p>Financial media commentator Jim Cramer said on Wednesday that trading meme stocks is more like gambling than investing.</p><p>“They’re exciting, fun, and real,” Kramer said. However, \"If you want to play, I think you can go to a casino. These should be available in casinos. Why are they listed on the New York Stock Exchange?\"</p><p>The retail trading frenzy that began in January has recently returned to the market spotlight.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Bed Bath & Beyond and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Stocks have recently surged again, with WSB concept stocks Clean Energy Fuels and Clover Health both rising by more than 30% today.</p><p>“They want to buy everything… You have to try to figure out which (meme stock) is next,” Kramer said.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0b176db791bc7695bd0a82fe54dde3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>With the foreign exchange market calm, now is the time to bullish emerging market currencies.</b></p><p>With lower US interest rates and a sharp drop in market volatility, the rise of emerging market currencies will be a natural progression.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Expected volatility indicators for developing country currencies and G7 currencies fell to their lowest level since September on Tuesday, boding well for risk assets. On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond fell below 1.5%.</p><p>Including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Banks including [banks] are predicting further appreciation of emerging market currencies. Previously, the weakness of the US dollar pushed the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index to a record high. While Thursday's U.S. inflation data may provide clues about when the Federal Reserve will begin tapering, market pricing suggests that the Fed is not expected to take any policy action at its June 16 meeting.</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Foreign media headlines: US SEC chairman proposes broad evaluation of stock trading rules</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForeign media headlines: US SEC chairman proposes broad evaluation of stock trading rules\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 05:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The main headlines that global financial media focused on last night and this morning were:</b></p><p><b>1. The \"Godfather of Emerging Markets\": \"Confusion and disorientation\" led to a \"crazy\" market trend.</b><b>2. The unexpected rise in US wage levels adds another reason to worry about inflation.</b><b>3. Bitcoin has a long and arduous road ahead for becoming a \"digital gold\".</b><b>4. The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a broad evaluation of stock trading rules.</b><b>5. Kramer: meme stocks \"should be in casinos,\" not Wall Street.</b><b>6. During a period of calm in the foreign exchange market, now is the time to be bullish on emerging market currencies.</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7d81f970caefa3d5cd2178ddbc23d2\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>\"Godfather of Emerging Markets\": \"Confusion and Disorientation\" Lead to a \"Crazy\" Market Trend</b></p><p>Mark Mobius, the “godfather of emerging markets,” warned that market volatility and the next steps of central banks must be monitored “very carefully,” and believes that the “crazy movement” of assets such as Bitcoin is driven by “disorientation and confusion.”</p><p>As the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic and inflation rises, the market is...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNBC\">Central Bank</a>In particular, speculation about when the Federal Reserve might begin tapering its asset purchases has been rife for months. Mai Pusi stated that the central bank's actions must be closely monitored.</p><p>“I think any decline in the money supply due to the central bank exiting its easing policy would be very detrimental to the market. So I think we have to watch this very carefully,” Maps said. “We are in a very uncertain period, that’s for sure.”<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0176e073727c80bb512179a896c4837f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The unexpected rise in US wages adds another reason to worry about inflation.</b></p><p>The unexpected rise in wage levels in the United States has given financial markets new reasons to worry about inflation.</p><p>Many policymakers and economists believe the price surge is temporary, partly because they did not expect wage increases to be so high. For many years, the growth of new capital from low-income groups has been relatively stagnant.</p><p>The number of employed people in the United States is still far below pre-pandemic levels, and most of the jobs currently created are in low-wage industries such as restaurants and tourism.</p><p>But last week's jobs report showed that average hourly wages were higher than expected for the second consecutive month. Regardless of the unemployment figures, the labor supply has proven to be inadequate, prompting many employers to raise wages or offer bonuses to attract talent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7446995499804ec7176aab7dbe841740\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Bitcoin has a long and arduous road ahead for it to become a \"digital gold\".</b></p><p>It doesn't seem like enough for Bitcoin to serve as \"digital gold\"—a stable, modern way to store wealth and hedge against economic trends.</p><p>Bitcoin volatility remains high, and prices have fallen sharply, from a high of around $63,000 in mid-April to around $35,000 today. Its volatility far exceeds that of gold, while Bitcoin price movements are largely irregular. This means that the digital token is not as good as gold in terms of hedging.</p><p>Some, however, believe that this erratic movement in Bitcoin is advantageous because it lacks correlation and may be an excellent portfolio diversification option. However, it is a poor choice when seeking safe-haven assets.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0d306860b243186c6876684697f692\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission proposed a broad evaluation of stock trading rules.</b></p><p>Wall Street's top regulator has called for a broad review of U.S. stock market trading rules.</p><p>U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said Wednesday that he has asked the agency's staff to review a range of issues related to stock trading, including the so-called requirement to execute transactions on the best possible terms. He also stated that the stock trading settlement process could be shortened to the same day.</p><p>In a speech prepared for the Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Fintech Conference, he said, \"I believe that shortening the standard settlement cycle can reduce the costs and risks in our markets.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a969b09f89902d657ab0d88f0be2a432\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Kramer: meme stocks \"should appear in casinos\" instead of Wall Street</b></p><p>Financial media commentator Jim Cramer said on Wednesday that trading meme stocks is more like gambling than investing.</p><p>“They’re exciting, fun, and real,” Kramer said. However, \"If you want to play, I think you can go to a casino. These should be available in casinos. Why are they listed on the New York Stock Exchange?\"</p><p>The retail trading frenzy that began in January has recently returned to the market spotlight.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Cinemas</a>Bed Bath & Beyond and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBRY\">Blackberry</a>Stocks have recently surged again, with WSB concept stocks Clean Energy Fuels and Clover Health both rising by more than 30% today.</p><p>“They want to buy everything… You have to try to figure out which (meme stock) is next,” Kramer said.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0b176db791bc7695bd0a82fe54dde3\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>With the foreign exchange market calm, now is the time to bullish emerging market currencies.</b></p><p>With lower US interest rates and a sharp drop in market volatility, the rise of emerging market currencies will be a natural progression.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Expected volatility indicators for developing country currencies and G7 currencies fell to their lowest level since September on Tuesday, boding well for risk assets. On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond fell below 1.5%.</p><p>Including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Banks including [banks] are predicting further appreciation of emerging market currencies. Previously, the weakness of the US dollar pushed the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index to a record high. While Thursday's U.S. inflation data may provide clues about when the Federal Reserve will begin tapering, market pricing suggests that the Fed is not expected to take any policy action at its June 16 meeting.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-10/doc-ikqciyzi8751188.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/762ef028f6d872233012dadb1fe341db","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","518880":"黄金ETF华安","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","CAN":"嘉楠科技","EBON":"亿邦国际","OEX":"标普100"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-10/doc-ikqciyzi8751188.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142824851","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、“新兴市场教父”：“困惑和迷失方向”导致市场出现“疯狂”走势\n\n\n2、美国薪资水平意外上涨 担忧通胀的理由又多了一个\n\n\n3、比特币要成为“数字黄金” 前路漫漫其修远兮\n\n\n4、美国证券交易委员会主席提议对股票交易规则进行广泛评估\n\n\n5、克莱默：meme股票“应该出现在赌场”而不是华尔街\n\n\n6、外汇市场风平浪静期 看涨新兴市场货币正当时\n\n“新兴市场教父”：“困惑和迷失方向”导致市场出现“疯狂”走势\n“新兴市场教父”麦朴思（Mark Mobius）警告称，必须“非常仔细地”关注市场波动和央行的下一步行动，并认为比特币等资产的“疯狂走势”是由“迷失方向和困惑”驱动的。\n随着经济从新冠疫情中复苏以及通胀水平的上升，市场对中央银行，特别是美联储何时可能开始缩减资产购买的猜测已经盛行数月。麦朴思表示，必须密切关注央行的举动。\n“我认为，由于中央银行退出宽松政策而导致货币供应量的任何回落对市场都非常不利。所以我认为必须非常仔细地观察这一点，”麦朴思称，“我们处于一个非常不确定的时期，这是肯定的”。美国薪资水平意外上涨 担忧通胀的理由又多了一个\n美国薪资水平的意外上涨让金融市场有了新的担心通胀的理由。\n许多政策制定者和经济学家认为价格飙升是暂时的，部分原因是他们未料想到薪资涨幅会如此之高。过去多年来，低收入人群的新资一直相对增长停滞。\n现在美国的就业人数仍远低于疫情爆发前水平，目前创造的大多数工作岗位都在低工资行业，如餐饮和旅游业。\n但上周的就业报告显示，平均小时工资连续第二个月高于预期。事实证明，无论失业数字如何，劳动力供应实质上不足，这促使许多雇主提高工资或发放奖金以吸引人才。比特币要成为“数字黄金” 前路漫漫其修远兮\n比特币要充当“数字黄金”——一种稳定的储存财富、对冲经济趋势的现代方式，似乎还不太够。\n比特币的波动仍然高企，价格急剧下跌，从4月中的高点约63000美元跌至今天的约35000美元。其波动远远超过了黄金的走势，而比特币的价格变动在很大程度上是不规律的。这意味着该数字代币在对冲方面不及黄金。\n一些人却认为比特币这种不规律的动向是有利的，因为缺乏相关性，可能是优良的投资组合多元化选择。但在寻求避险资产时，则是糟糕的选择。美国证券交易委员会主席提议对股票交易规则进行广泛评估\n华尔街的最高监管机构呼吁对美国股票市场交易规则进行一次广泛评估。\n美国证券交易委员会主席Gary Gensler周三表示，他要求该机构的工作人员审查与股票交易相关的一系列问题，包括所谓以最佳条件执行交易的要求。他还表示，股票交易结算流程可以缩短到同一天。\n他在为Piper Sandler全球交易所和金融科技会议准备好的讲话中称，“我相信缩短标准结算周期可以降低我们市场的成本和风险。”克莱默：meme股票“应该出现在赌场”而不是华尔街\n财经媒体名嘴吉姆克莱默（Jim Cramer）周三表示，交易meme股票更像是赌博而不是投资。\n“它们令人兴奋，很有趣，而且很真实，”克莱默说。然而，“如果你要玩，我认为你可以去赌场。这些应该在赌场提供。为什么它们会在纽约证券交易所上市？”\n1月份开始的散户交易狂潮最近又重新成为市场焦点。AMC院线、Bed Bath & Beyond和黑莓股票近期均再度出现大幅飙升，而WSB概念股新宠Clean Energy Fuels和Clover Health今日均涨超30%。\n“他们什么都想买……你必须试着弄清楚下一个（meme股）是哪个，”克莱默说。外汇市场风平浪静期 看涨新兴市场货币正当时\n随着美国利率走低、市场波动性大跌，新兴市场货币上涨将会水到渠成。\n摩根大通的发展中国家货币和七国集团货币预期波动性指标周二跌至9月以来的最低水平，对风险资产是个好兆头。周三，美国10年期国债收益率跌破1.5%。\n包括花旗和高盛在内的银行正在预测新兴市场货币进一步上涨。此前，美元的疲软推动MSCI新兴市场货币指数创历史新高。虽然美国周四的通胀数据可能会提供有关美联储何时开始减码的线索，但市场定价表明美联储在6月16日的会议上估计不会采取任何政策行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159934":0.9,"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"518880":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"NUGT":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SGCmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SGUmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"DUST":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"GDX":0.9,"GLD":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"MGCmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117972063,"gmtCreate":1623115310252,"gmtModify":1704196344259,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job g7","listText":"Good job g7","text":"Good job g7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117972063","repostId":"2141259172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117976651,"gmtCreate":1623115277973,"gmtModify":1704196343767,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job g7","listText":"Good job g7","text":"Good job g7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117976651","repostId":"2141259172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":189506898,"gmtCreate":1623280598514,"gmtModify":1704199806595,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh","listText":"Oh","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/189506898","repostId":"2142824851","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802848391,"gmtCreate":1627770544413,"gmtModify":1703495518251,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/802848391","repostId":"1120441766","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120441766","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1627665833,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1120441766?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-31 01:23","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"What will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120441766","media":"Wind万得","summary":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报","content":"<p>As July draws to a close, investors are beginning to pay attention to the hottest market events in August. The Federal Reserve remains the focus, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August typically brings a slowdown in US stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, when nearly half of the companies have already released their earnings reports. However, at least from a historical perspective, the stock market still showed some weak seasonal trends entering September. This is noteworthy, especially considering that inflation and stock valuations remain worrying.</p><p><b>Corporate earnings season</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July, investors can refocus on corporate earnings season. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long run, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. As of the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was entirely in line with analysts' expectations, and even partially exceeded them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 fell 2% due to concerns about Delta virus mutation, experiencing minor fluctuations. However, in late July, the strong performance of the earnings season generally boosted all sectors of the US stock market. Entering August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The performance has caused concern among many investors. There are signs that more countries and regions will tighten restrictions on travel again as the virus spreads further.</p><p>The market cannot anticipate changes in the virus, but if the situation worsens, it could mean that people will return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, namely fixed income, mega-tech stocks and the US dollar.</p><p>Returning to profitability, from large banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Many companies performed quite well in their July reports, including airlines and railroads. One view is that if railways operate well, the broader economy will also develop well, because transportation is often a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor expectations for full-quarter earnings are also rising, with analysts currently forecasting second-quarter earnings growth of 74.2%, compared to a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in several industries (led by finance, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported better-than-expected earnings, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>On the other hand, market weaknesses still exist, such as in the semiconductor sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither company's prospects impressed investors, and both companies' stock prices remained on the defensive. In addition, investors have already priced in expectations of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to significantly exceed expectations or have broad growth potential to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise significantly due to strong earnings.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve policy support and economic data</b></p><p>The principle of \"not fighting the Federal Reserve\" does not seem to have changed. This is a term coined decades ago by traders who believed the Federal Reserve would step in to support the stock market during any downturn. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the Fed remains committed to loose monetary policy and that high inflation may cool down.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rhetoric will influence a \"key indicator\" of global assets: will U.S. Treasury Bond yields resume their upward trend in August, or will they fall below a nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields often help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as technology, while rising yields often help \"cyclical\" sectors such as finance and energy. The tug-of-war between growth and value that continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, many on Wall Street believed that Jackson Hole might be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited stimulus tapering program. That may not be the case now: since the end of March, U.S. Treasury yields have steadily declined, seemingly giving the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. This is a strategy used by the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to be working.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and as of the end of July, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3%. Considering economic growth and high inflation month after month, this is a surprisingly low yield.</p><p>Both Powell and President Biden stated in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most people in the market will be closely watching the July consumer and producer prices released in August, as well as the July employment report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus may now shift more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, this could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>As the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Federal Reserve is ready to take action, or at least predict that the Fed will take stimulus measures. Some economists point out that the Federal Reserve's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities has provided unnecessary ammunition for an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility draws attention</b></p><p>August may be a time for investors to catch their breath. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor was somewhat disrupted last year, but if fears about the pandemic hadn't continued to grow, Wall Street might have a more normal holiday schedule.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 often indicate that people expect less volatility in the future.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that seasonal factors in August were not favorable to the market. Historically, US stocks have been on a downward trend throughout August, making it the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. In the 72 years since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of that year 19 times. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half of the year, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points before rising again.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will happen to global markets in August? These events will affect risk sentiment\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-31 01:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As July draws to a close, investors are beginning to pay attention to the hottest market events in August. The Federal Reserve remains the focus, but factors such as corporate earnings reports and market volatility cannot be ignored.</p><p>August typically brings a slowdown in US stock trading, especially in the middle of the month, when nearly half of the companies have already released their earnings reports. However, at least from a historical perspective, the stock market still showed some weak seasonal trends entering September. This is noteworthy, especially considering that inflation and stock valuations remain worrying.</p><p><b>Corporate earnings season</b></p><p>Following the Federal Reserve's meeting at the end of July, investors can refocus on corporate earnings season. The Federal Reserve is a key component, but in the long run, earnings drive the U.S. stock market. As of the end of July, the second-quarter earnings season was entirely in line with analysts' expectations, and even partially exceeded them.</p><p>On July 19, the S&P 500 fell 2% due to concerns about Delta virus mutation, experiencing minor fluctuations. However, in late July, the strong performance of the earnings season generally boosted all sectors of the US stock market. Entering August,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Airlines</a>The performance has caused concern among many investors. There are signs that more countries and regions will tighten restrictions on travel again as the virus spreads further.</p><p>The market cannot anticipate changes in the virus, but if the situation worsens, it could mean that people will return to so-called \"defensive\" areas, namely fixed income, mega-tech stocks and the US dollar.</p><p>Returning to profitability, from large banks to Snap,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HON\">Honeywell</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">American Telephone and Telegraph</a>Company and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>Many companies performed quite well in their July reports, including airlines and railroads. One view is that if railways operate well, the broader economy will also develop well, because transportation is often a barometer of aggregate demand.</p><p>Investor expectations for full-quarter earnings are also rising, with analysts currently forecasting second-quarter earnings growth of 74.2%, compared to a previous estimate of 69.4%. Since July, companies in several industries (led by finance, healthcare, information technology and communications services) have reported better-than-expected earnings, leading to an improvement in overall earnings expectations.</p><p>On the other hand, market weaknesses still exist, such as in the semiconductor sector.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>Neither company's prospects impressed investors, and both companies' stock prices remained on the defensive. In addition, investors have already priced in expectations of strong corporate earnings, and some companies need to significantly exceed expectations or have broad growth potential to attract more capital inflows. This also explains why bank stocks failed to rise significantly due to strong earnings.</p><p><b>Federal Reserve policy support and economic data</b></p><p>The principle of \"not fighting the Federal Reserve\" does not seem to have changed. This is a term coined decades ago by traders who believed the Federal Reserve would step in to support the stock market during any downturn. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this month that the Fed remains committed to loose monetary policy and that high inflation may cool down.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's rhetoric will influence a \"key indicator\" of global assets: will U.S. Treasury Bond yields resume their upward trend in August, or will they fall below a nearly five-month low of 1.2% again? Falling yields often help so-called \"growth\" sectors such as technology, while rising yields often help \"cyclical\" sectors such as finance and energy. The tug-of-war between growth and value that continued throughout the year shows no signs of disappearing.</p><p>Earlier this year, many on Wall Street believed that Jackson Hole might be the time and place for the Federal Reserve to announce its long-awaited stimulus tapering program. That may not be the case now: since the end of March, U.S. Treasury yields have steadily declined, seemingly giving the Federal Reserve more room to maneuver to maintain its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program. This is a strategy used by the Federal Reserve to inject liquidity and keep interest rates low, and it seems to be working.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew by more than 6%, and as of the end of July, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond was close to 1.3%. Considering economic growth and high inflation month after month, this is a surprisingly low yield.</p><p>Both Powell and President Biden stated in late July that the current high inflation would not last. To be sure, most people in the market will be closely watching the July consumer and producer prices released in August, as well as the July employment report. Job growth rebounded in June after months of weakness. The focus may now shift more to wage growth: if employers have to start raising wages significantly to attract workers, this could also raise inflation concerns.</p><p>As the Jackson Hole meeting approaches, investors may have a better sense of whether the Federal Reserve is ready to take action, or at least predict that the Fed will take stimulus measures. Some economists point out that the Federal Reserve's continued purchase of mortgage-backed securities has provided unnecessary ammunition for an already overheated housing market.</p><p><b>US stock volatility draws attention</b></p><p>August may be a time for investors to catch their breath. Traditionally, this is a time when volatility and trading volume tend to decline due to many traders going on vacation. This seasonal factor was somewhat disrupted last year, but if fears about the pandemic hadn't continued to grow, Wall Street might have a more normal holiday schedule.</p><p>In August, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) may receive more attention. In mid-July, the index briefly rose above 20 before falling back to 17, the same level as earlier this month. The historical average of the VIX index is around 20, but levels well below 20 often indicate that people expect less volatility in the future.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>It is pointed out that seasonal factors in August were not favorable to the market. Historically, US stocks have been on a downward trend throughout August, making it the fourth worst two-week seasonal period of the year. In the 72 years since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen by more than 10% in the first half of that year 19 times. Specifically, after a strong market performance in the first half of the year, the median return in August typically falls by 51 basis points before rising again.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120441766","content_text":"随着7月进入尾声，投资者开始关注8月市场热点事件。美联储一如既往地成为焦点，但企业财报、市场波动等因素也不容忽视。\n8月通常会带来美股交易速度的放缓，特别是在月中旬，因为这期间将近一半企业都已公布财报。不过，至少从历史的角度来看，进入9月份，股市仍有一些疲软的季节性趋势。这一点值得关注，尤其是考虑到通胀和股票估值都仍令人担忧。\n企业财报季\n在美联储7月底的会议之后，投资者可以重新关注企业财报季。美联储是一个关键组成部分，但从长期来看，收益驱动着美股市场。截至7月底，第二季度财报季完全符合分析师的预期，甚至部分超出预期。\n7月19日，标准普尔500指数因担心德尔塔病毒变异而下跌2%，出现了轻微的小波动；但在7月下旬，财报季的亮眼表现基本上提振了美股各大板块。进入8月，达美航空业绩表现让不少投资者担忧。有迹象表明，随着病毒的进一步蔓延，更多国家和地区将重新对外出旅行加强限制。\n市场无法预期病毒的变化，但如果情况恶化，可能意味着人们会回到所谓的“防御性”领域，即固定收益、超大型科技股和美元。\n回到盈利方面，从大型银行到Snap、IBM、霍尼韦尔、美国电话电报公司和美国运通，许多公司在7月份的报告中都表现得相当不错，航空公司和铁路公司也是如此。有一种观点认为，如果铁路运营良好，那么更广泛的经济也会发展良好，因为运输往往是总需求的晴雨表。\n投资者对整个季度的收益预期也在上升，分析师目前预计第二季度收益将增长74.2%，此前预计为69.4%。7月以来，多个行业(以金融、医疗保健、信息技术和通信服务行业为首)公司公布的收益超出预期，导致整体收益预期有所改善。\n但另一方面，市场弱点仍然存在，例如半导体领域。英特尔和德州仪器的前景都未能给投资者留下深刻印象，两家公司的股价都处于守势。此外，投资者已经消化了企业收益强劲的预期，一些公司需要业绩大超预期，或成长空间较广，才能吸引更多资金流入。这也解释了为什么银行股未能因强劲业绩大幅上涨。\n美联储政策支持和经济数据\n“不与美联储抗争”似乎也没有改变。这是几十年前交易员们发明的一个术语，他们认为美联储会在任何低迷时期出手支撑股市。美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)本月早些时候表示，美联储仍致力于宽松货币政策，高通胀可能会降温。\n美联储的言辞将会影响全球资产的“关键指标”：美国国债收益率将在8月份重新走上上升之路，还是将再次跌至近五个月来的低点1.2%以下？收益率下降往往有助于科技等所谓的“成长型”板块，而收益率上升往往有助于金融和能源等“周期性”板块。全年持续的增长与价值的拉锯战并没有消失的迹象。\n今年早些时候，华尔街有很多人认为，杰克逊霍尔可能是美联储宣布外界期待已久的缩减刺激计划的时机和地点。现在不一定是这样了：自3月底以来，美债收益率稳步下滑，似乎给了美联储更多的操作空间，以维持每月1,200亿美元的购债计划。这是美联储用来注入流动性和保持低利率的策略，而且似乎已经奏效了。\n今年第一季度，美国经济增长超过6%，截至7月底，10年期美国国债收益率接近1.3%。考虑到经济增长和月复一月的高通胀，这是一个令人惊讶的低收益率。\n鲍威尔和拜登总统在7月下旬都表示，目前的高通胀不会持续。可以肯定的是，市场中的大多数人将密切关注8月公布的7月消费者和生产者价格，以及7月就业报告。就业增长在经过几个月的疲软后，于6月反弹。现在的焦点可能更多地转向工资增长：如果雇主不得不开始大幅提高工资以吸引工人，这可能也会引发通胀担忧。\n等到杰克逊霍尔会议临近的时候，投资者可能会对美联储是否准备采取行动有更好的感觉，或者至少预测美联储会采取刺激措施。一些经济学家指出，美联储继续购买抵押贷款支持证券，这为已经过热的房地产市场提供了不必要的弹药。\n美股波动率引发关注\n8月份可能是给投资者喘息的时间。传统上，这是由于许多交易员都去度假，波动性和交易量趋于下降的时候。去年，这种季节因素受到了一些干扰，但如果对疫情的恐惧没有持续增长，华尔街可能会有一个更正常的假期安排。\n8月，CBOE波动率指数(VIX)可能会受到更多关注。7月中旬，该指数短暂升至20以上，然后又回落至17，与本月早些时候的水平相同。VIX指数的历史平均水平在20左右，但远低于20的水平往往表明，人们预计未来的动荡会减少。\n高盛指出，8月的季节性因素并不对市场有利，从历史数据来看，整个8月美股都呈下降趋势，这是一年中第四糟糕的两周季节性时期。自1950年以来，在72年的时间里，标普500指数有19次在当年上半年涨超10%。具体来说，在上半年市场表现强劲之后，8月份的回报率中值通常会下降51个基点，然后再上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806523083,"gmtCreate":1627681598742,"gmtModify":1703494502516,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806523083","repostId":"1198370900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198370900","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"凤凰网港股官方账号，专注让专业更简单","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网港股","id":"56","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7"},"pubTimestamp":1627658786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1198370900?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 23:26","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Behind the \"buying a house with a voucher,\" is a major revolution in the real estate market really coming?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198370900","media":"凤凰网港股","summary":"2021年春节过后，原本平静的武汉楼市突然躁动起来。\n短短两个月的时间里，武汉光谷关山大道的中建大公馆、金地格林东郡、泛悦城等楼盘，从2万元/平方米左右的价格，涨到了3、4万元/平方米。\n而房价飞涨的","content":"<p><b>After the Spring Festival in 2021, the previously calm Wuhan real estate market suddenly became restless.</b></p><p>In just two months, the prices of residential projects such as China Construction Grand Mansion, Gemdale Green East County, and Fanyue City on Guanshan Avenue in Optics Valley, Wuhan, have risen from around 20,000 yuan per square meter to 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per square meter.</p><p>Behind the soaring housing prices are investors from Shenzhen, Xuzhou, Zaozhuang and other places who are taking advantage of Wuhan's relatively relaxed household registration and purchase restriction policies to engage in frenzied \"speculation\".</p><p>At the time, Wuhan locals who suffered greatly told the media, \"I hate these out-of-town speculators. When will the government strictly restrict purchases?\"</p><p>The people of Wuhan did not wait long. Three months later, on July 28, the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau released a draft for public comment on strengthening the management of home purchase qualifications. Following the release of the draft opinion, the topic of \"Wuhan will implement the practice of buying houses with housing vouchers\" quickly sparked heated discussions online.</p><p>Is Wuhan about to enter the era of \"buying a house with a housing voucher\"? Some people supported this news, some questioned it, and some worried that \"real estate speculation\" would turn into \"speculative housing tickets\".</p><p>However, regardless of how it is interpreted, the signal of \"tightening\" in the real estate market released by Wuhan is clear. In fact, Wuhan is not the only city that is \"tightening\" its real estate policies.</p><p>Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\" found that since the beginning of 2021, local governments, including those in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, have released stricter regulatory policies for the real estate market.</p><p>As the after-school education and training industry undergoes a disruptive transformation, many people can't help but ask:<b>Is a major transformation coming to China's real estate market?</b></p><p>Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance and chief economist of IPG China, told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"These policies will increase the difficulty and cost of purchasing housing for investment purposes in the short term, thereby curbing the overheating of the housing market to some extent. However, in the long run, if the actual market supply and demand relationship does not change, and if the population, land, and financial policies that affect housing prices do not make major changes, it will be difficult to have a substantial impact on housing prices.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9284d07634672a560d0f50a2e3314\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01. What exactly is \"buying a house with a voucher\" in Wuhan?</b></p><p>What exactly does Wuhan's \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" policy, which has sparked heated discussions online, stipulate?</p><p>On July 28, in order to adhere to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and further strengthen the management of housing purchase qualifications in Wuhan, the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau issued the \"Notice of the Wuhan Municipal Housing Security and Housing Administration Bureau on Strengthening the Management of Housing Purchase Qualifications (Draft for Public Comment)\" and solicited public opinions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8d8c23e8cca1ee4ca8d5d15731bf9\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the draft opinion, homebuyers who meet the requirements for purchasing housing in restricted areas can apply for home purchase eligibility through official platforms or through developers and real estate agencies.</p><p>The housing management departments of each district shall complete the home purchase eligibility determination within 48 hours from the time of application and provide feedback on the determination results to the applicant. The home purchase eligibility determination results shall be valid for 60 days from the date of issuance.</p><p>The draft for comments also requires that after the home purchase registration is completed, the results of the home purchase eligibility determination are locked in immediately, and no further home purchase registration is allowed during the locking period. After the property opens for sale, the results of the purchase eligibility verification will be automatically released.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The idea of 'buying a house with a voucher' in Wuhan is currently in the stage of soliciting opinions. This is a proposed institutional design to strengthen the control of the real estate market and base it on the eligibility of homebuyers.\"</p><p>So, what impact will the introduction of the policy of \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" have on Wuhan's real estate market?</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The policy of buying a house with a voucher is a patch to the previous policy and a supplement to the purchase restriction policy. To a certain extent, it can curb market chaos, play a positive role in regulating real estate market transactions, and has effectively cracked down on some developers who create false hot sales scenes. To a certain extent, it can curb speculation.\"</p><p>Zhu Xiaohong, president of the China Luxury Housing Research Institute, told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"Buying houses with housing vouchers is similar to housing interventions in Hong Kong and South Korea. It is beneficial for combating speculation and controlling excessive consumption of housing products, but we must prevent 'using housing vouchers for personal gain' and 'buying and selling housing vouchers,' and ensure that housing vouchers are given to the right people.\"</p><p>Bai Wenxi expressed similar concerns, saying, \"On the surface, housing vouchers will control demand and crack down on speculation, but in reality, they are done by suppressing demand and not increasing supply. If used improperly, they may actually exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand, lead to corruption of power, and exacerbate various disguised and underground speculation.\"</p><p><b>02. Local governments have introduced a series of policies, with clear signals of \"tightening\".</b></p><p>In fact, Wuhan's policy adjustments regarding home purchase eligibility may have already begun as early as 2020.</p><p>In January last year, Wuhan implemented a fully online verification process for commercial housing qualifications. Prospective homebuyers can apply for qualifications and check the results through the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau. If the verification is passed, they can obtain verification materials such as a number and QR code. These materials are valid for purchasing a house within 60 days, and a new application is required after the expiration date.</p><p>It can be seen that as early as 2020, Wuhan had already established the prototype of the \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" mechanism. This draft for comments is also a supplement and improvement to the existing policies.</p><p>Besides Wuhan, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, second- and third-tier cities such as Jiaxing, Foshan, and Wuxi, as well as central government departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, have also successively released a series of policies to strengthen the supervision of the real estate market.</p><p>On January 5, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, reiterated in a media interview the policy principles of adhering to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and implementing a long-term mechanism for the real estate market. He stated that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" will remain the main policy theme in 2021, while signaling that the long-term mechanism is being continuously implemented and improved.</p><p>For example, Shanghai also explicitly stated in January that it would continue to implement the property tax pilot program. Meanwhile, Shanghai has also stipulated, in response to the phenomenon of \"fake divorces but real home purchases,\" that if either spouse purchases commercial housing within three years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned by the spouse shall be calculated based on the total number of housing units owned by the family before the divorce. Adjust the value-added tax exemption period. The exemption period for value-added tax on individual housing sales will be increased from 2 years to 5 years.</p><p>In March, Xi'an also released a new purchase restriction policy, stipulating that homebuyers who fraudulently obtain or circumvent the purchase restriction policy through \"nominee shareholding\" will be included in the city's list of dishonest homebuyers and will be prohibited from purchasing homes for five years.</p><p>In June, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Taxation Administration, and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice that four non-tax revenues, including revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, would be transferred to the tax authorities for collection, which once sparked heated discussions.</p><p>On July 23, eight departments, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Public Security, jointly issued a notice on continuing to rectify and standardize the real estate market order. The notice aims to comprehensively regulate the real estate market order from four aspects: real estate development, housing sales, housing rental, and property services.</p><p>On July 30, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) held a system-wide mid-year work symposium and a teleconference on discipline inspection and supervision work in 2021. The meeting emphasized the need to strictly implement the \"three lines and four tiers\" and real estate loan concentration requirements to prevent bank and insurance funds from illegally flowing into the real estate market.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm,\" since January this year, local governments and relevant central departments have issued more than 40 regulatory and control policies targeting the real estate market and its derivative services. The sheer number and density are relatively rare in recent years.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"There are three reasons for the current adjustment of real estate policies: first, to prevent financial risks caused by real estate; second, under the domestic circulation model, it is necessary to reduce the total cost of economic operation, represented by real estate; and third, to increase the willingness to have children and maintain sustainable population development, it is necessary to reduce the pressure on housing costs.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a08ad922ffa471f7aea8f0400a29bb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03. Real estate companies' stock prices pullback/retracement sharply as their glory fades.</b></p><p>The policy changes have also directly affected listed companies in the real estate industry.</p><p>Benefiting from the rapid development of China's real estate market in recent years, a large number of behemoth real estate listed companies have emerged in China, and real estate companies were once regarded as a symbol of \"not lacking money\".</p><p>Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin, who has passed away<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>Chairman Zuo Hui and other real estate tycoons have all ascended to the throne of \"richest man\".</p><p>However, as the government began to regulate the \"overheated\" real estate market and introduced a series of strict regulatory policies, these listed real estate companies also encountered the problem of \"a large ship is difficult to turn around\", resulting in problems such as broken capital chains, declining revenue, falling stock prices, and high debts.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium with key real estate enterprises in Beijing, clarifying the rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises, which were the \"three red lines\" that had been rumored many times in the industry.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm,\" more than half of the 40 leading real estate companies listed on the Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen their stock prices fall more than 30% from their peak pullback/retracement within 52 weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face4ce6faa97c257718c9108ee3c3b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1003\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, during the collective \"plunge\" in A-shares on Monday and Tuesday, A-share real estate stocks also fell sharply due to concerns about policy regulation in the real estate market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000718\">Suning Universal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600773\">Tibet Urban Investment</a>It once fell by more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfca5e8a01f143057cf5d1f41a95b53\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>04. Is a major revolution in the real estate market coming?</b></p><p>Wuhan's \"buying a house with housing coupons\" policy has reminded many people of the \"grain coupons\" and \"meat coupons\" of the planned economy era. So, does \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" really mean returning to the planned economy era? Will this trigger other cities to follow suit?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb31adddcc3e0bf4814fad90b355b71b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bai Wenxi stated that China has bid farewell to the era of tickets for nearly 30 years, and the introduction of Wuhan's \"housing tickets\" has touched upon and evoked people's memories of the era of insufficient supply and tickets everywhere during the planned economy era. As one of the industries with the highest public attention, the Wuhan \"housing tickets\" incident, which is still in the works, will most likely be pushed to the \"trending topics\".</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that housing vouchers are a system designed to compress demand through entry controls, thereby changing the supply and demand relationship in the housing market and preventing the housing market from overheating. However, real estate market regulation logically needs to start from both the supply and demand sides. While limiting and suppressing demand with quantity and price tools, it is also necessary to balance the supply and demand relationship by increasing market supply.</p><p>\"Therefore, to truly stabilize the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, we must minimize and eliminate various control measures on both the supply and demand sides, use price mechanisms to guide the allocation of resources and factors and reconstruct the supply and demand relationship, and certainly not restore the tickets of the planned economy era,\" Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5109cefd2de75f41c0a1a0f3da6acbb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Whether it's Wuhan's recent policy of \"buying a house with a housing voucher,\" a series of regulatory policies on the real estate market introduced by local governments this year, or the rumored upcoming \"real estate tax,\" do these mean that China's real estate market is about to undergo a major transformation?</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The introduction of the real estate tax may usher in another reshuffle of the real estate market.\"</p><p>\"Judging from the current adjustments to real estate policies, adhering to the principle that 'housing is for living in, not for speculation' is the main theme of my country's real estate market. Under this principle, first, it is necessary to curb the rapid rise in housing prices through policy regulation and promote the market to gradually return to a rational stage; second, it is necessary to continuously improve and standardize the real estate market system, promptly crack down on some behaviors that speculate on housing prices and exploit policy loopholes, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.\" Third, limited resources should be allocated to first-time homebuyers to provide a more stable real estate environment.</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center believes that with the introduction of these policies, the interests of genuine first-time homebuyers have been protected, and their home-buying mentality has gradually become more rational, which has played a certain role in curbing the rapid rise in housing prices. In the long run, after strict policy regulation, housing prices in first-tier cities will tend to stabilize.</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that if a property tax is introduced soon, it will indeed mean a major transformation in the real estate market. However, in fact, the property tax has not yet been submitted for review according to legislative procedures and will not be introduced soon, nor is there a timetable.</p><p>Bai Wenxi stated that if these policies do not start with expanding the supply side, but only adopt measures such as quantitative tools to control demand entry, such as housing vouchers, and price tools to control demand, such as mortgage ratios and interest rates, the result may only be to stir up trouble, or even to cause prices to rise further with each adjustment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the \"buying a house with a voucher,\" is a major revolution in the real estate market really coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the \"buying a house with a voucher,\" is a major revolution in the real estate market really coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/56\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/63f98f2e899d607a12011e4ecf9c0ac7);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网港股 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-30 23:26</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>After the Spring Festival in 2021, the previously calm Wuhan real estate market suddenly became restless.</b></p><p>In just two months, the prices of residential projects such as China Construction Grand Mansion, Gemdale Green East County, and Fanyue City on Guanshan Avenue in Optics Valley, Wuhan, have risen from around 20,000 yuan per square meter to 30,000 to 40,000 yuan per square meter.</p><p>Behind the soaring housing prices are investors from Shenzhen, Xuzhou, Zaozhuang and other places who are taking advantage of Wuhan's relatively relaxed household registration and purchase restriction policies to engage in frenzied \"speculation\".</p><p>At the time, Wuhan locals who suffered greatly told the media, \"I hate these out-of-town speculators. When will the government strictly restrict purchases?\"</p><p>The people of Wuhan did not wait long. Three months later, on July 28, the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau released a draft for public comment on strengthening the management of home purchase qualifications. Following the release of the draft opinion, the topic of \"Wuhan will implement the practice of buying houses with housing vouchers\" quickly sparked heated discussions online.</p><p>Is Wuhan about to enter the era of \"buying a house with a housing voucher\"? Some people supported this news, some questioned it, and some worried that \"real estate speculation\" would turn into \"speculative housing tickets\".</p><p>However, regardless of how it is interpreted, the signal of \"tightening\" in the real estate market released by Wuhan is clear. In fact, Wuhan is not the only city that is \"tightening\" its real estate policies.</p><p>Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\" found that since the beginning of 2021, local governments, including those in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, have released stricter regulatory policies for the real estate market.</p><p>As the after-school education and training industry undergoes a disruptive transformation, many people can't help but ask:<b>Is a major transformation coming to China's real estate market?</b></p><p>Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance and chief economist of IPG China, told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"These policies will increase the difficulty and cost of purchasing housing for investment purposes in the short term, thereby curbing the overheating of the housing market to some extent. However, in the long run, if the actual market supply and demand relationship does not change, and if the population, land, and financial policies that affect housing prices do not make major changes, it will be difficult to have a substantial impact on housing prices.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c9284d07634672a560d0f50a2e3314\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>01. What exactly is \"buying a house with a voucher\" in Wuhan?</b></p><p>What exactly does Wuhan's \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" policy, which has sparked heated discussions online, stipulate?</p><p>On July 28, in order to adhere to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and further strengthen the management of housing purchase qualifications in Wuhan, the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau issued the \"Notice of the Wuhan Municipal Housing Security and Housing Administration Bureau on Strengthening the Management of Housing Purchase Qualifications (Draft for Public Comment)\" and solicited public opinions.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8db8d8c23e8cca1ee4ca8d5d15731bf9\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"537\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>According to the draft opinion, homebuyers who meet the requirements for purchasing housing in restricted areas can apply for home purchase eligibility through official platforms or through developers and real estate agencies.</p><p>The housing management departments of each district shall complete the home purchase eligibility determination within 48 hours from the time of application and provide feedback on the determination results to the applicant. The home purchase eligibility determination results shall be valid for 60 days from the date of issuance.</p><p>The draft for comments also requires that after the home purchase registration is completed, the results of the home purchase eligibility determination are locked in immediately, and no further home purchase registration is allowed during the locking period. After the property opens for sale, the results of the purchase eligibility verification will be automatically released.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The idea of 'buying a house with a voucher' in Wuhan is currently in the stage of soliciting opinions. This is a proposed institutional design to strengthen the control of the real estate market and base it on the eligibility of homebuyers.\"</p><p>So, what impact will the introduction of the policy of \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" have on Wuhan's real estate market?</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The policy of buying a house with a voucher is a patch to the previous policy and a supplement to the purchase restriction policy. To a certain extent, it can curb market chaos, play a positive role in regulating real estate market transactions, and has effectively cracked down on some developers who create false hot sales scenes. To a certain extent, it can curb speculation.\"</p><p>Zhu Xiaohong, president of the China Luxury Housing Research Institute, told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"Buying houses with housing vouchers is similar to housing interventions in Hong Kong and South Korea. It is beneficial for combating speculation and controlling excessive consumption of housing products, but we must prevent 'using housing vouchers for personal gain' and 'buying and selling housing vouchers,' and ensure that housing vouchers are given to the right people.\"</p><p>Bai Wenxi expressed similar concerns, saying, \"On the surface, housing vouchers will control demand and crack down on speculation, but in reality, they are done by suppressing demand and not increasing supply. If used improperly, they may actually exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand, lead to corruption of power, and exacerbate various disguised and underground speculation.\"</p><p><b>02. Local governments have introduced a series of policies, with clear signals of \"tightening\".</b></p><p>In fact, Wuhan's policy adjustments regarding home purchase eligibility may have already begun as early as 2020.</p><p>In January last year, Wuhan implemented a fully online verification process for commercial housing qualifications. Prospective homebuyers can apply for qualifications and check the results through the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Housing Administration Bureau. If the verification is passed, they can obtain verification materials such as a number and QR code. These materials are valid for purchasing a house within 60 days, and a new application is required after the expiration date.</p><p>It can be seen that as early as 2020, Wuhan had already established the prototype of the \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" mechanism. This draft for comments is also a supplement and improvement to the existing policies.</p><p>Besides Wuhan, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, second- and third-tier cities such as Jiaxing, Foshan, and Wuxi, as well as central government departments such as the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, have also successively released a series of policies to strengthen the supervision of the real estate market.</p><p>On January 5, Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, reiterated in a media interview the policy principles of adhering to the principle that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" and implementing a long-term mechanism for the real estate market. He stated that \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" will remain the main policy theme in 2021, while signaling that the long-term mechanism is being continuously implemented and improved.</p><p>For example, Shanghai also explicitly stated in January that it would continue to implement the property tax pilot program. Meanwhile, Shanghai has also stipulated, in response to the phenomenon of \"fake divorces but real home purchases,\" that if either spouse purchases commercial housing within three years from the date of divorce, the number of housing units owned by the spouse shall be calculated based on the total number of housing units owned by the family before the divorce. Adjust the value-added tax exemption period. The exemption period for value-added tax on individual housing sales will be increased from 2 years to 5 years.</p><p>In March, Xi'an also released a new purchase restriction policy, stipulating that homebuyers who fraudulently obtain or circumvent the purchase restriction policy through \"nominee shareholding\" will be included in the city's list of dishonest homebuyers and will be prohibited from purchasing homes for five years.</p><p>In June, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Taxation Administration, and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice that four non-tax revenues, including revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, would be transferred to the tax authorities for collection, which once sparked heated discussions.</p><p>On July 23, eight departments, including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Public Security, jointly issued a notice on continuing to rectify and standardize the real estate market order. The notice aims to comprehensively regulate the real estate market order from four aspects: real estate development, housing sales, housing rental, and property services.</p><p>On July 30, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) held a system-wide mid-year work symposium and a teleconference on discipline inspection and supervision work in 2021. The meeting emphasized the need to strictly implement the \"three lines and four tiers\" and real estate loan concentration requirements to prevent bank and insurance funds from illegally flowing into the real estate market.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm,\" since January this year, local governments and relevant central departments have issued more than 40 regulatory and control policies targeting the real estate market and its derivative services. The sheer number and density are relatively rare in recent years.</p><p>Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"There are three reasons for the current adjustment of real estate policies: first, to prevent financial risks caused by real estate; second, under the domestic circulation model, it is necessary to reduce the total cost of economic operation, represented by real estate; and third, to increase the willingness to have children and maintain sustainable population development, it is necessary to reduce the pressure on housing costs.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a08ad922ffa471f7aea8f0400a29bb4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>03. Real estate companies' stock prices pullback/retracement sharply as their glory fades.</b></p><p>The policy changes have also directly affected listed companies in the real estate industry.</p><p>Benefiting from the rapid development of China's real estate market in recent years, a large number of behemoth real estate listed companies have emerged in China, and real estate companies were once regarded as a symbol of \"not lacking money\".</p><p>Wanda Chairman Wang Jianlin, who has passed away<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">Seashell</a>Chairman Zuo Hui and other real estate tycoons have all ascended to the throne of \"richest man\".</p><p>However, as the government began to regulate the \"overheated\" real estate market and introduced a series of strict regulatory policies, these listed real estate companies also encountered the problem of \"a large ship is difficult to turn around\", resulting in problems such as broken capital chains, declining revenue, falling stock prices, and high debts.</p><p>In August last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China held a symposium with key real estate enterprises in Beijing, clarifying the rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key real estate enterprises, which were the \"three red lines\" that had been rumored many times in the industry.</p><p>According to incomplete statistics from Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm,\" more than half of the 40 leading real estate companies listed on the Hong Kong and A-share markets have seen their stock prices fall more than 30% from their peak pullback/retracement within 52 weeks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/face4ce6faa97c257718c9108ee3c3b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1003\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In fact, during the collective \"plunge\" in A-shares on Monday and Tuesday, A-share real estate stocks also fell sharply due to concerns about policy regulation in the real estate market.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000718\">Suning Universal</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600773\">Tibet Urban Investment</a>It once fell by more than 10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dfca5e8a01f143057cf5d1f41a95b53\" tg-width=\"324\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>04. Is a major revolution in the real estate market coming?</b></p><p>Wuhan's \"buying a house with housing coupons\" policy has reminded many people of the \"grain coupons\" and \"meat coupons\" of the planned economy era. So, does \"buying a house with a housing voucher\" really mean returning to the planned economy era? Will this trigger other cities to follow suit?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb31adddcc3e0bf4814fad90b355b71b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"219\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Bai Wenxi stated that China has bid farewell to the era of tickets for nearly 30 years, and the introduction of Wuhan's \"housing tickets\" has touched upon and evoked people's memories of the era of insufficient supply and tickets everywhere during the planned economy era. As one of the industries with the highest public attention, the Wuhan \"housing tickets\" incident, which is still in the works, will most likely be pushed to the \"trending topics\".</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that housing vouchers are a system designed to compress demand through entry controls, thereby changing the supply and demand relationship in the housing market and preventing the housing market from overheating. However, real estate market regulation logically needs to start from both the supply and demand sides. While limiting and suppressing demand with quantity and price tools, it is also necessary to balance the supply and demand relationship by increasing market supply.</p><p>\"Therefore, to truly stabilize the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, we must minimize and eliminate various control measures on both the supply and demand sides, use price mechanisms to guide the allocation of resources and factors and reconstruct the supply and demand relationship, and certainly not restore the tickets of the planned economy era,\" Bai Wenxi told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\".</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5109cefd2de75f41c0a1a0f3da6acbb\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Whether it's Wuhan's recent policy of \"buying a house with a housing voucher,\" a series of regulatory policies on the real estate market introduced by local governments this year, or the rumored upcoming \"real estate tax,\" do these mean that China's real estate market is about to undergo a major transformation?</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center told Phoenix.com's \"Eye of the Storm\": \"The introduction of the real estate tax may usher in another reshuffle of the real estate market.\"</p><p>\"Judging from the current adjustments to real estate policies, adhering to the principle that 'housing is for living in, not for speculation' is the main theme of my country's real estate market. Under this principle, first, it is necessary to curb the rapid rise in housing prices through policy regulation and promote the market to gradually return to a rational stage; second, it is necessary to continuously improve and standardize the real estate market system, promptly crack down on some behaviors that speculate on housing prices and exploit policy loopholes, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.\" Third, limited resources should be allocated to first-time homebuyers to provide a more stable real estate environment.</p><p>Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center believes that with the introduction of these policies, the interests of genuine first-time homebuyers have been protected, and their home-buying mentality has gradually become more rational, which has played a certain role in curbing the rapid rise in housing prices. In the long run, after strict policy regulation, housing prices in first-tier cities will tend to stabilize.</p><p>Bai Wenxi believes that if a property tax is introduced soon, it will indeed mean a major transformation in the real estate market. However, in fact, the property tax has not yet been submitted for review according to legislative procedures and will not be introduced soon, nor is there a timetable.</p><p>Bai Wenxi stated that if these policies do not start with expanding the supply side, but only adopt measures such as quantitative tools to control demand entry, such as housing vouchers, and price tools to control demand, such as mortgage ratios and interest rates, the result may only be to stir up trouble, or even to cause prices to rise further with each adjustment.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3c5822c22b6cfd1d0ae2625b7bc085e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198370900","content_text":"2021年春节过后，原本平静的武汉楼市突然躁动起来。\n短短两个月的时间里，武汉光谷关山大道的中建大公馆、金地格林东郡、泛悦城等楼盘，从2万元/平方米左右的价格，涨到了3、4万元/平方米。\n而房价飞涨的背后，是来自深圳、徐州、枣庄等地的投资客们，利用武汉市相对宽松的落户政策和限购政策，疯狂“炒房”。\n当时，深受其害的武汉当地人对媒体表示：“恨死了这些外地炒房客，政府啥时候能严格限购啊？”\n武汉人民并未等太久。3个月后，7月28日，武汉市房管局发布了关于加强购房资格管理的征求意见稿。意见稿发布后，“武汉将实施凭房票买房”的话题也迅速在网络上引起热议。\n武汉要进入“凭房票买房”时代了？对这个消息，有人支持，有人质疑，还有人担心“炒房”会变成“炒房票”。\n不过，无论如何解读，武汉释放出的楼市“收紧”的信号则是明确的。实际上，正在“收紧”楼市政策的不止武汉一个城市。\n凤凰网《风暴眼》发现，进入2021年以来，包括北京、上海、广州、深圳、杭州等在内的地方政府，都发布了针对房地产市场的更为严格的监管政策。\n随着校外教培行业迎来颠覆式的大变革，很多人也不禁发问：中国楼市的大变革，也要来了吗？\n中国企业资本联盟副理事长、IPG中国首席经济学家柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“这些政策在短期内会加大和提升投资性需求的购房难度与成本，从而从一定程度上抑制楼市过热问题。但长期来看，如果实际的市场供求关系不改变，影响房价的人口、土地、金融政策不作大的改变，则很难对房价产生实质性影响。”\n\n01、武汉的“凭票买房”，到底是什么？\n在网上引起热议的武汉“凭房票买房”的政策，到底规定了哪些内容呢？\n7月28日，为坚持“房住不炒”定位，进一步加强武汉市购房资格管理工作，武汉市房管局发布《市住房保障房管局关于加强购房资格管理工作的通知（征求意见稿）》，并公开征求意见。\n\n根据意见稿，在购房资格申请上，符合限购区域购买住房的意向购房人可通过官方平台或者通过开发商和中介机构申请购房资格。\n各区房管部门在申请之时起48个小时内完成购房资格认定，并将认定结果反馈给申请人，购房资格认定结果自出具之日起60日内有效。\n《征求意见稿》还要求，购房登记完成后，购房资格认定结果即时锁定，锁定期间不得再次进行购房登记。开盘销售后，购房资格认定结果自动解除锁定。\n柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“武汉‘凭票买房’的相关设想目前尚处于征求意见阶段，这是为加强楼市管控、立足于购房者资格准入提出的拟意中的制度设计。”\n那么，“凭房票购房”的政策出台后，会对武汉的楼市造成哪些影响呢？\n诸葛找房数据研究中心对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“凭票买房政策，是前期政策的一个打补丁新政，也是对限购政策的补充完善，一定程度上可以遏制市场乱象，对规范房地产市场交易有着积极作用，较有力地打击了部分制造虚假热售场面的开发商，一定程度上可以抑制炒房现象。”\n中国豪宅研究院院长朱晓红对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“凭票买房与香港、韩国的住房干预有异曲同工之处。对打击炒房，控制过度消费住房产品有好处，但要防止‘以房票谋私’和‘房票买卖’，一定要确保房票给对人。”\n柏文喜也表达了类似的担忧，他表示：“房票表面上会控制需求和打击炒房，但实际上是通过压抑需求和不增加供给进行的，如果运用不当，可能反而会加剧供求矛盾，引发权力腐败、加剧各类变相炒房和地下炒房等行为。”\n02、地方政府密集出台政策，“收紧”信号明显\n实际上，武汉市对于购房资格的政策调整，可能早在2020年就已经开始了。\n去年1月，武汉实行了商品房资格核查全程网办，意向购房者可通过武汉市房管局官网申请资格并查询结果，如果通过审核，即可获取编号和二维码等审核资料信息，该资料60日内购房有效，过期需重新申请。\n可以看出，早在2020年武汉市就已搭建出“凭房票买房”的机制雏形。而此次的征求意见稿，也是对先关政策的补充和完善。\n而除了武汉外，北上广深等一线城市，嘉兴、佛山、无锡等二三线城市，以及住建部等中央部门，也都陆续发布了一系列政策来对房地产市场加强监管。\n1月5日，住建部部长王蒙徽在接受媒体采访时，重申了坚持房住不炒，落实房地产长效机制等政策原则，表示2021年房住不炒仍然作为政策主基调不改变，同时长效机制不断落实完善的信号。\n例如，上海市也在1月份明确继续实施房产税试点。同时，上海市还针对“假离婚，真购房”现象，规定：夫妻离异的，任何一方自夫妻离异之日起3年内购买商品住房的，其拥有住房套数按离异前家庭总套数计算。调整增值税征免年限。将个人对外销售住房增值税征免年限从2年提高至5年。\n3月，西安也发布限购新政，规定购房人骗取或通过“代持”方式规避限购政策的，其本人及“代持人”将列入我市购房失信人员名册，5年内不得购房\n6月，财政部、自然资源部、税务总局、人民银行联合发布通知，国有土地使用权出让收入等四项政府非税收入将划转税务部门征收，一度引起热议。\n7月23日，住建部、发改委、公安部等八部门共同发布关于持续整治规范房地产市场秩序的通知，从房地产开发、房屋买卖、住房租赁以及物业服务四个方面切入，对房地产市场秩序进行全面规范。\n7月30日，银保监会召开全系统2021年年中工作座谈会暨纪检监察工作（电视电话）座谈会。会议强调，要严格执行“三线四档”和房地产贷款集中度要求，防止银行保险资金绕道违规流入房地产市场。\n据凤凰网《风暴眼》不完全统计，从今年1月至今，各地政府和中央相关部门共发布了超过40项针对房地产市场以及其衍生服务的监管和调控政策。数量之多，密度之大，在近年来都是比较罕见的。\n柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“目前针对房地产政策的调整的原因有三个：第一是防范房地产引发的金融风险问题；第二是内循环模式下需要降低以房地产为代表的经济运行总成本；第三是提升生育意愿和保持人口可持续发展需要降低居住成本压力。”\n\n03、地产公司“风头不再” 股价大幅回撤\n政策的变化，也直接影响到了地产行业的上市公司身上。\n受益于中国房地产市场近年来的快速发展，中国也诞生了一大批巨无霸类的地产上市公司，地产企业也一度被视为“不差钱”的象征。\n万达董事长王健林、已经去世的贝壳董事长左晖等地产大亨们，都曾登上过“首富”的宝座。\n然而随着国家开始对“过热”的房地产市场进行调控，以及一系列严格的监管政策的出台，这些地产上市公司也纷纷遭遇了“船大难掉头”的难题，资金链断裂、收入下滑、股价下跌、高额负债等问题也随之而来。\n去年8月，住房城乡建设部、人民银行在北京召开重点房地产企业座谈会，明确了重点房地产企业资金监测和融资管理规则，也就是此前业内多次传闻的“三条红线”。\n据凤凰网《风暴眼》不完全统计，在港股和A股上市的40家头部地产公司中，有一半以上的公司股价在52周内距最高点回撤超过30%。\n\n事实上，就在本周一、周二的A股集体“大跳水”中，出于对房地产市场政策监管的担忧情绪，A股地产股也集体大跌，苏宁环球、西藏城投一度跌超10%。\n\n04、楼市的大变革，要来了吗\n武汉“凭房票买房”政策，也让很多人联想到了计划经济时代的“粮票”、“肉票”。那么，“凭房票购房”，是否真的意味着回到计划经济时代？是否又会引发其他城市跟进？\n\n柏文喜表示，中国告别票证时代已近三十年了，而武汉“房票”的推出触碰和勾起了了人们对计划经济年代供给不足、处处票证的时代记忆，房地产作为公众关注度最高的行业之一，尚在酝酿之中的武汉“房票”事件大概率会被推上“热搜”。\n柏文喜认为，房票本身是立足于以准入管制来压缩需求，进而改变楼市供求关系以防止楼市过热的制度设计。但是楼市调控逻辑上需要从供求两端着手，在以数量工具与价格工具限制与压抑需求的同时，还要通过增加市场供给来平衡供求关系。\n“因此，真正要平抑楼市供求关系的话，则要尽量减少和消除供求两端的各类管制措施，以价格机制引导资源和要素配置并重构供求关系，更不能恢复计划经济时代的票证。”柏文喜对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示。\n\n无论是武汉市此次出台的“凭房票买房”的政策，还是今年以来各地政府出台的一系列对房地产市场的监管政策，抑或是传闻中即将出台的“房地产税”，这些是否意味着中国楼市将迎来一次大变革呢？\n诸葛找房数据研究中心对凤凰网《风暴眼》表示：“房地产税的出台，或将迎来房地产市场的又一次洗牌。”\n“从目前房地产政策调整来看，坚持房住不炒是我国房地产市场的主基调。在此原则之下，首先需通过政策调控抑制房价上涨过快，促进市场逐渐回归理性阶段；其次，不断完善和规范房地产市场体系，对一些炒作房价、钻政策空子的行为及时进行打击，促进房地产市场健康发展；第三，将有限的资源向刚需群体倾斜，为购房者提供一个更为稳定的房地产环境。”\n诸葛找房数据研究中心认为，随着这些政策出台，真正的刚需群体利益得到保障，购房心态也逐渐理性，对房价过快上涨起到一定的抑制作用。长期来看，一线城市房价在经过严格的政策调控后，房价将趋于平稳运行。\n柏文喜认为，如果房产税真的很快出台，确实意味着房地产市场将迎来一次大变革，但是事实上房地产税按照立法程序尚未提交审议，是不会很快出台，也没有时间表的。\n柏文喜表示，这些政策如果不是从扩大供给端入手，而是仅仅采取控制需求端准入的数量工具如房票、控制需求端的价格工具如按揭成数与利率等措施，结果可能只是扬汤止沸，甚至越调越涨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890507369,"gmtCreate":1628122601351,"gmtModify":1703501532787,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/890507369","repostId":"2156717176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2156717176","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628047054,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2156717176?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-04 11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"stagflation risks are increasing! Goldman Sachs: Hedging against a sharp decline in US stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2156717176","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissman","content":"<p>U.S. stocks remain high, but major Wall Street banks have already begun warning of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This reminds investors that the market is becoming quite unstable, and they should pay attention to the risk of stock declines and be prepared to hedge.</p><p>In a recent research report, Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann stated that the S&P 500 has not experienced a 5% decline for 187 days, one of the longest such periods in the past 100 years. As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios are becoming more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first carefully observed recent inflation indicators, pointing out that break-even inflation outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have always been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance suggests that the divergence between break-even inflation and various historically correlated indicators appears to be widening.</p><p>First, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as cyclical stocks last week (EU Cyclicals vs Defensives). Moreover, this trend has actually emerged since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>This is true not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Starting in the second half of last year, US breakeven inflation and US cyclical vs defensive assets began to gradually decouple.</p><p><b>Break-even inflation is typically used to measure inflation expectations. However, it should be noted that the rise in break-even inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>Conversely, as break-even inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been declining, with the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States recently hitting new lows.</p><p><b>In response to the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such low real interest rates point to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to contradict the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the US economic recovery is largely on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>The core of inflation is bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June, and the yield curve has flattened, suggesting not only the risk of a near-term economic slowdown, but also the risk of prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the decline in long-term bond yields is primarily driven by real yields, while break-even inflation is sticky—indicating growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong jobs report could help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he warned that the risk of a stock market correction has increased. In addition, the gap between S&P 500 returns and bond yields has been widening over the past six months. Coupled with very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, this has made stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rates.</b></p><p>In addition to the reasons mentioned above, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in its report.</p><p>For example, Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has recently plummeted. In terms of index composition, growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure. This means that despite a generally strong earnings season in Europe and the United States looking ahead, the market still does not believe there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that US fiscal stimulus measures are beginning to disappoint and the COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>stagflation risks are increasing! Goldman Sachs: Hedging against a sharp decline in US stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nstagflation risks are increasing! Goldman Sachs: Hedging against a sharp decline in US stocks\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks remain high, but major Wall Street banks have already begun warning of the risk of a decline.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>This reminds investors that the market is becoming quite unstable, and they should pay attention to the risk of stock declines and be prepared to hedge.</p><p>In a recent research report, Goldman Sachs strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann stated that the S&P 500 has not experienced a 5% decline for 187 days, one of the longest such periods in the past 100 years. As stocks and bonds become more expensive, multi-asset portfolios are becoming more vulnerable to interest rate and economic growth shocks.</p><p><b>Mueller-Glissmann first carefully observed recent inflation indicators, pointing out that break-even inflation outperformed other \"pro-cyclical\" assets.</b>Generally speaking, the two have always been closely related throughout history; However, recent performance suggests that the divergence between break-even inflation and various historically correlated indicators appears to be widening.</p><p>First, EU breakeven inflation outperformed assets such as cyclical stocks last week (EU Cyclicals vs Defensives). Moreover, this trend has actually emerged since the second quarter of this year.</p><p>This is true not only in Europe, but also in the United States. Starting in the second half of last year, US breakeven inflation and US cyclical vs defensive assets began to gradually decouple.</p><p><b>Break-even inflation is typically used to measure inflation expectations. However, it should be noted that the rise in break-even inflation is not reflected in the more important real interest rate.</b></p><p>Conversely, as break-even inflation rises, real interest rates across the term structure have been declining, with the 10 year real rate in both Europe and the United States recently hitting new lows.</p><p><b>In response to the above situation, Goldman Sachs warned that such low real interest rates point to the market's pricing of stagflation risk, which seems to contradict the economic recovery.</b>According to Goldman Sachs economists, the US economic recovery is largely on track, and inflationary pressures will eventually ease.</p><p>The core of inflation is bonds. Bonds have risen strongly since June, and the yield curve has flattened, suggesting not only the risk of a near-term economic slowdown, but also the risk of prolonged stagnation in the new cycle as monetary and fiscal support disappears. Furthermore, the decline in long-term bond yields is primarily driven by real yields, while break-even inflation is sticky—indicating growing concerns about stagflation. Regarding the market outlook, Goldman Sachs strategist Mueller-Glissmann said the market may need some catalysts to reprice higher interest rates, and this week's strong jobs report could help clarify future trends.</p><p><b>In addition, he warned that the risk of a stock market correction has increased. In addition, the gap between S&P 500 returns and bond yields has been widening over the past six months. Coupled with very low real interest rates and very high stock valuations, this has made stocks more vulnerable to economic growth and interest rates.</b></p><p>In addition to the reasons mentioned above, Goldman Sachs also gave other reasons in its report.</p><p>For example, Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator has recently plummeted. In terms of index composition, growth optimism (RAI PC1) remains under pressure. This means that despite a generally strong earnings season in Europe and the United States looking ahead, the market still does not believe there will be more positive growth momentum at the end of the year and in the new cycle, given that US fiscal stimulus measures are beginning to disappoint and the COVID-19 pandemic has dragged down consumption.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b6684517506a0b0f4c4c5a1c4889261","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3637091","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2156717176","content_text":"美股仍处高位，不过已经有华尔街大行开始警告下跌的风险了。高盛就提醒投资者，市场开始变得相当不稳定了，要关注股票下跌风险，并做好对冲准备。\n高盛策略师Christian Mueller-Glissmann在最近的一篇研报中表示，标普500指数已经有187天没有出现下跌5%的情况，为过去100年来最长持续时间之一；随着股票和债券越来越贵，多资产组合也变得更容易受到利率和经济增长冲击的影响。\nMueller-Glissmann首先仔细观察了近期的通胀指标，指出盈亏平衡通胀表现优于其他“顺周期”资产。通常来说，这两者在历史上一直是密切相关的；但是近期的表现显示，盈亏平衡通胀与各种历史相关性指标的差异似乎越来越大。\n首先，上周欧洲盈亏平衡通胀（EU breakeven inflation）表现优于周期股等资产（EU Cyclicals vs Defensives）。并且，实际上今年二季度以来就已经出现了这一趋势。\n不仅是欧洲，美国也是如此。去年下半年开始美国盈亏平衡通胀（US breakeves）和顺周期资产（US cyclical vs Defensives）就开始不断脱钩了。\n盈亏平衡通胀通常被用于衡量通胀预期。然而需要注意的是，盈亏平衡通胀的上升并没有反映在更重要的实际利率上。\n相反，随着盈亏平衡通胀的上升，整个期限结构的实际利率一直在下降，欧洲和美国的10年期实际利率均在近期创下了新低。\n对于上述情形，高盛警告，如此低的实际利率水平指向了市场对滞涨风险的定价，而这似乎与经济复苏有些矛盾。在高盛经济学家看来，美国经济复苏大体上处在轨道上，通胀压力最终也会缓解。\n\n 通货再膨胀的核心是债券。债券自6月以来强劲上扬，收益率曲线趋平，不仅暗示了近期经济增长放缓的风险，同时也显示了随着货币和财政支持的消失，新一周期内持续长期停滞的风险。此外，长期限债券收益率下行主要是由实际收益率推动的，而盈亏平衡通胀具有粘性——这表明对滞涨的担忧日益加剧。\n\n对于后市的走势，高盛策略师Mueller-Glissmann表示，市场可能需要一些催化剂来重新定价更高的利率，本周强劲的就业报告可能有助于明晰日后的趋势。\n此外，他还警告，股市调整的风险已经增加了。此外，过去6个月，标普500回报率和债券收益率变化之间的差距不断扩大，再加上实际利率已经非常低了，且股票估值非常高，这使得股票更易受到经济增长和利率的冲击。\n除了上述原因之外，高盛还在报告中给出了其他理由。\n比如，高盛风险偏好指标（Goldman's Risk Appetite Indicator）近期重挫。从指数组成来看，增长乐观情绪（RAI PC1）仍处于压力之下。这意味着尽管往后看欧洲和美国的财报季总体强劲，但是考虑到美国财政刺激措施开始令人失望，以及新冠疫情拖累了消费，市场仍然不相信在年底和新周期会出现更多积极的增长动力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163664076,"gmtCreate":1623883600395,"gmtModify":1703822214254,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/163664076","repostId":"1109204514","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109204514","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109204514?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Federal Reserve Dot Plot: Median Expectation: Fed to rate hike Twice by the End of 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109204514","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将","content":"<p>While keeping near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, this week's Federal Reserve meeting sent a clear signal that there is a high probability of more than one rate hike two years from now, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after its meeting that members of the Federal Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while maintaining the excess reserve rate (IOER) and the discount rate at 0.10% and 0.25%, respectively.</p><p>As in its post-meeting statements of the previous eight meetings, the Federal Reserve continued to pledge that it would use “all of its” policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Federal Reserve officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for a longer period after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Unlike the last dot plot:</p><p><ul><li>Among the 18 officials who issued their forecasts,<b>Seven people are expected to visit rate hike in 2022.</b>Three more people than expected last time.<b>The number of people accounted for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time are<b>Thirteen people are expected to meet in rate hike in 2023, accounting for over 72% of the total.</b>This is 6 more people than previously expected in rate hike in 2023.<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who predict rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% at that time.</b>number of people<b>More than 61%</b>Five more people than expected last time.<b>Five people are expected to have interest rates exceeding 1% by then.</b>There were 3 more people than expected last time.<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means,<b>If the rate hike is 25 basis points at a time</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials predict that by the end of 2023, the Federal Reserve will conduct at least two rate hike measures on the current basis.</b>。</p><p>Following the FOMC's decision announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through the 1.50% and 1.51% barriers, turning positive intraday and rising nearly 2 basis points. U.S. stocks extended their losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 down nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver plunged, with spot gold falling 0.5% again intraday and falling below $1,850, a short-term drop of more than $10. Bitcoin narrowed its losses, returning above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index broke through the 90.70 and 90.80 levels, hitting a one-month high.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Dot Plot: Median Expectation: Fed to rate hike Twice by the End of 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Dot Plot: Median Expectation: Fed to rate hike Twice by the End of 2023\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>While keeping near-zero interest rates and the scale of QE bond purchases unchanged, this week's Federal Reserve meeting sent a clear signal that there is a high probability of more than one rate hike two years from now, in 2023.</p><p>On Wednesday, June 16, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after its meeting that members of the Federal Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) unanimously agreed to keep the target level of the policy interest rate Federal Funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations, while maintaining the excess reserve rate (IOER) and the discount rate at 0.10% and 0.25%, respectively.</p><p>As in its post-meeting statements of the previous eight meetings, the Federal Reserve continued to pledge that it would use “all of its” policy tools to support the U.S. economy.</p><p>The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in March this year, all Federal Reserve officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year, and for a longer period after 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, higher than the Fed's long-term target of 2%. Unlike the last dot plot:</p><p><ul><li>Among the 18 officials who issued their forecasts,<b>Seven people are expected to visit rate hike in 2022.</b>Three more people than expected last time.<b>The number of people accounted for nearly 40%.</b></li><li>Among the 18 people this time are<b>Thirteen people are expected to meet in rate hike in 2023, accounting for over 72% of the total.</b>This is 6 more people than previously expected in rate hike in 2023.<b>。</b></li><li><b>Of the 13 people who predict rate hike in 2023, 11 expect interest rates to exceed 0.5% at that time.</b>number of people<b>More than 61%</b>Five more people than expected last time.<b>Five people are expected to have interest rates exceeding 1% by then.</b>There were 3 more people than expected last time.<b>Accounting for nearly 30%</b>。</li></ul>This means,<b>If the rate hike is 25 basis points at a time</b>, then,<b>More than 60% of officials predict that by the end of 2023, the Federal Reserve will conduct at least two rate hike measures on the current basis.</b>。</p><p>Following the FOMC's decision announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through the 1.50% and 1.51% barriers, turning positive intraday and rising nearly 2 basis points. U.S. stocks extended their losses, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling nearly 370 points or more than 1%, the S&P 500 down nearly 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.7%. Five minutes later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's decline narrowed slightly to 285 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both fell 0.7%. Gold and silver plunged, with spot gold falling 0.5% again intraday and falling below $1,850, a short-term drop of more than $10. Bitcoin narrowed its losses, returning above $39,000, while the US Dollar Index broke through the 90.70 and 90.80 levels, hitting a one-month high.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109204514","content_text":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，符合市场预期，同时将超额准备金利率（IOER）和贴现利率仍分别维持在0.10%和0.25%。\n和前八次会后声明一样，美联储继续承诺，将为了支持美国经济而运用联储“所有范围”的政策工具。\n会后公布的点阵图显示，和今年3月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。不同于上次点阵图的是：\n\n在18名发布预期的官员中，本次有7人预计2022年将加息，比上次这样预期的人数多3人，人数占比将近40%。\n本次18人中有13人预计2023年会加息，人数占比超过72%，比上次预期2023年加息者多6人。\n在预计2023年加息的这13人中，有11人预计届时利率将超过0.5%，人数占比超过61%，比上次这样预期者多5人，预计届时利率超过1%的有5人，比上次这样预期者多3人，人数占比将近30%。\n\n这意味着，若一次加息25个基点，那么，本次有六成以上的多数官员都预计，到2023年末，美联储将在当前基础上至少两次加息。\n在美东下午2点FOMC决策公布后，10年期美债收益率升破1.50%和1.51%两道关口，日内转涨并升近2个基点。美股跌幅扩大，道指跌近370点或超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，纳指跌0.7%。5分钟后，道指跌幅小幅收窄至285点，标普500指数和纳指均跌0.7%。金银跳水，现货黄金日内重新下跌0.5%并失守1850美元，短线跌超10美元。比特币跌幅收窄，重回3.9万美元上方，美元指数升破90.70和90.80两道关口，刷新一个月高位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894658362,"gmtCreate":1628823772456,"gmtModify":1676529866554,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes","listText":"Yes","text":"Yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/894658362","repostId":"2159698722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117972063,"gmtCreate":1623115310252,"gmtModify":1704196344259,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job g7","listText":"Good job g7","text":"Good job g7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117972063","repostId":"2141259172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117976651,"gmtCreate":1623115277973,"gmtModify":1704196343767,"author":{"id":"3585481693131980","authorId":"3585481693131980","name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e319262691b62ffc43be5e2d506ecdc7","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585481693131980","idStr":"3585481693131980"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good job g7","listText":"Good job g7","text":"Good job g7","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117976651","repostId":"2141259172","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}