Debdebz personal page - To The Moon

Debdebz

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2021-07-30

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$keep going up please

2021-07-30

Adobe.. interesting

2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now

2021-08-18

Time to go up

2021-08-06

Seems to be going up rapidly

2021-08-06

To buy or not to buy

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2021-08-06

Will it keep increasing?

2021-07-29

Apple??

Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business

2021-07-29

[Grin]

Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business

2021-07-29

Soaring back up

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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to go up","listText":"Time to go up","text":"Time to go up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20d65314760062c46a2dad5b276d516a","width":"1125","height":"3786"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831869824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893081866,"gmtCreate":1628221156355,"gmtModify":1703503439101,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems to be going up rapidly","listText":"Seems to be going up rapidly","text":"Seems to be going up rapidly","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d777f2d1ed82eeb6b4b4f5081d2b81","width":"1125","height":"3887"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893081866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899627936,"gmtCreate":1628180315025,"gmtModify":1703502767340,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To buy or not to buy&nbsp;","listText":"To buy or not to buy&nbsp;","text":"To buy or not to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899627936","repostId":"1151835705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899625728,"gmtCreate":1628180194864,"gmtModify":1703502766852,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it keep increasing?&nbsp;","listText":"Will it keep increasing?&nbsp;","text":"Will it keep increasing?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fe69c73483754594e149db5bf11fae","width":"1125","height":"3613"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899625728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806296564,"gmtCreate":1627656384758,"gmtModify":1703494295135,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Adobe.. interesting","listText":"Adobe.. interesting","text":"Adobe.. interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806296564","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806293828,"gmtCreate":1627656242864,"gmtModify":1703494290198,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>keep going up please&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>keep going up please&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$keep going up please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a1918f34e68e5db9394cb91a367ef1f","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806293828","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801758035,"gmtCreate":1627537198527,"gmtModify":1703491928407,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple??","listText":"Apple??","text":"Apple??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801758035","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182616893?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>\n <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>\n <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>\n <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p>\n<p><b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p>\n<p>No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p>\n<p>For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p>\n<p>Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p>\n<p>That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p>\n<p>And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p>\n<p><b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p>\n<p>Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p>\n<p>Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p>\n<p>So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p>\n<p>This was just a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p>\n<p>The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p>\n<p>These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p>\n<p>As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p>\n<p>So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p>\n<p>In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p>\n<p>Products: $68 billion</p>\n<p>Services: $33 billion</p>\n<p>To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p>\n<p>I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801751973,"gmtCreate":1627537107392,"gmtModify":1703491926470,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801751973","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182616893?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>\n <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>\n <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>\n <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p>\n<p><b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p>\n<p>No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p>\n<p>For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p>\n<p>Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p>\n<p>That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p>\n<p>And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p>\n<p><b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p>\n<p>Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p>\n<p>Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p>\n<p>So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p>\n<p>This was just a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p>\n<p>The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p>\n<p>These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p>\n<p>As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p>\n<p>So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p>\n<p>In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p>\n<p>Products: $68 billion</p>\n<p>Services: $33 billion</p>\n<p>To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p>\n<p>I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801727860,"gmtCreate":1627536926650,"gmtModify":1703491921099,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Soaring back up&nbsp;","listText":"Soaring back up&nbsp;","text":"Soaring back up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d6aa4e69c7b0e3bfaed56fd68731b7","width":"1125","height":"3439"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801727860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":806293828,"gmtCreate":1627656242864,"gmtModify":1703494290198,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>keep going up please&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>keep going up please&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$keep going up please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a1918f34e68e5db9394cb91a367ef1f","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806293828","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806296564,"gmtCreate":1627656384758,"gmtModify":1703494295135,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Adobe.. interesting","listText":"Adobe.. interesting","text":"Adobe.. interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/806296564","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2155377091","pubTimestamp":1627655924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2155377091?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-30 22:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2155377091","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These companies are building the future.","content":"<p>One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for companies that could benefit over the long term.</p>\n<p>For instance, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a> Systems</b> (NASDAQ:ADBE) is powering digital transformation, and <b>Tesla</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA) is revolutionizing the automotive industry. More importantly, both should continue to benefit from these unstoppable trends in the years ahead.</p>\n<p>Here's what you should know.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb1366dacb2068774afb3d293f73be94\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images</span></p>\n<h2>1. Adobe Systems</h2>\n<p>A digital-first business model is no longer optional -- it's a necessity. Each year, more consumers shop online, connect through social media, and engage with mobile apps, and they expect a high-quality experience across every touchpoint. Fortunately, Adobe has the tools to make that happen.</p>\n<p>Adobe is best known for its digital media business, which comprises two platforms. The first is Adobe Creative Cloud, a software suite that includes industry-leading products like Photoshop&nbsp;for image editing, Illustrator&nbsp;for graphics, and InDesign&nbsp;for digital publishing.</p>\n<p>The second is Adobe Document Cloud, a suite that enables clients to create, edit, share, and sign digital documents. Collectively, these tools drive efficiency by eliminating costly paper-based processes.</p>\n<p>Beyond digital media, Adobe also offers a third platform: Adobe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXP.AU\">Experience</a> Cloud. This software helps clients with analytics, marketing, and commerce, making it possible to collect data, target content, and deliver engaging experiences across digital touchpoints. Notably, research company <b>Gartner</b>&nbsp;has recognized Adobe as a leader in this category.</p>\n<p>With this impressive arsenal of products, the company has delivered strong financial results like clockwork in recent years.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n   <th><p>Q2 2018 (TTM)</p></th>\n   <th><p>Q2 2021 (TTM)</p></th>\n   <th><p>CAGR</p></th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$8.1 billion</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$14.4 billion</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>21%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>Free cash flow</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$3.3 billion</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$6.6 billion</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>26%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p>\n<p>Looking ahead, the bull case for this company is straightforward: Adobe has built a trusted brand and established itself as a leader in several software verticals. As more enterprises adopt digital-first strategies, Adobe should benefit from strong demand.</p>\n<p>With that in mind, management puts the company's market opportunity at $147 billion&nbsp;by 2023, leaving plenty of room for Adobe to grow its business. That's why this tech company looks like a smart buy.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cdffd4a7b56387c2ad8ab4d5b1a5e95\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"369\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Tesla</span></p>\n<h2>2. Tesla</h2>\n<p>The electric vehicle (EV) market is growing quickly. Last year, global EV sales surged 41% to 3.1 million units, representing 4.6%&nbsp;of all cars sold. Despite that furious pace of adoption, Tesla managed to boost production and maintain its industry-leading position, capturing 16% market share&nbsp;in 2020.</p>\n<p>At the same time, Tesla posted an industry-leading operating margin of 6.3% last year, showcasing the scalability of its manufacturing process. In fact, between 2017 and 2021, the company's average cost per vehicle dropped from $84,000 to $38,000&nbsp;as it&nbsp;increased&nbsp;output in the U.S. and ramped production China.</p>\n<p>But this disruptor is just getting started. Tesla recently purchased the largest&nbsp;die casting machine in the world. And in early 2021, it started making the rear body of the Model Y as a single piece&nbsp;of metal, cutting labor costs by combining 70 different components&nbsp;into <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>. But here's the most impressive part: To accomplish that feat, Tesla invented and patented new aluminum alloys, since existing options made poor substrates for die casting.</p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, Tesla has delivered impressive financial results in recent years.</p>\n<table>\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th><p>Metric</p></th>\n   <th><p>Q2 2018 (TTM)</p></th>\n   <th><p>Q2 2021 (TTM)</p></th>\n   <th><p>CAGR</p></th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>Revenue</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$13.7 billion</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>$41.9 billion</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>45%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>Gross profit margin</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>14.4%</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>22%</p></td>\n   <td width=\"156\"><p>N/A</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.</p>\n<p>During the Q2 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said Gigafactory Texas and Berlin will use single-piece casting for both the front and rear bodies&nbsp;of the Model Y. In other words, Tesla is pressing its advantage. And as these factories come online later in 2021, the company should reap the benefits of increased production capacity and manufacturing efficiency.</p>\n<p>That's why now looks like a good time to buy this growth stock.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Unstoppable Growth Stocks to Buy Right Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-30 22:38 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","ADBE":"Adobe"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/30/unstoppable-growth-stocks-to-buy-now-adobe-tesla/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2155377091","content_text":"One trick to investing is trying to predict the future -- but that doesn't mean you should buy a crystal ball and attempt to time the market. Instead, pay attention to secular trends, and look for companies that could benefit over the long term.\nFor instance, Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE) is powering digital transformation, and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is revolutionizing the automotive industry. More importantly, both should continue to benefit from these unstoppable trends in the years ahead.\nHere's what you should know.\nImage source: Getty Images\n1. Adobe Systems\nA digital-first business model is no longer optional -- it's a necessity. Each year, more consumers shop online, connect through social media, and engage with mobile apps, and they expect a high-quality experience across every touchpoint. Fortunately, Adobe has the tools to make that happen.\nAdobe is best known for its digital media business, which comprises two platforms. The first is Adobe Creative Cloud, a software suite that includes industry-leading products like Photoshop for image editing, Illustrator for graphics, and InDesign for digital publishing.\nThe second is Adobe Document Cloud, a suite that enables clients to create, edit, share, and sign digital documents. Collectively, these tools drive efficiency by eliminating costly paper-based processes.\nBeyond digital media, Adobe also offers a third platform: Adobe Experience Cloud. This software helps clients with analytics, marketing, and commerce, making it possible to collect data, target content, and deliver engaging experiences across digital touchpoints. Notably, research company Gartner has recognized Adobe as a leader in this category.\nWith this impressive arsenal of products, the company has delivered strong financial results like clockwork in recent years.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2018 (TTM)\nQ2 2021 (TTM)\nCAGR\n\n\n\n\nRevenue\n$8.1 billion\n$14.4 billion\n21%\n\n\nFree cash flow\n$3.3 billion\n$6.6 billion\n26%\n\n\n\nData source: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.\nLooking ahead, the bull case for this company is straightforward: Adobe has built a trusted brand and established itself as a leader in several software verticals. As more enterprises adopt digital-first strategies, Adobe should benefit from strong demand.\nWith that in mind, management puts the company's market opportunity at $147 billion by 2023, leaving plenty of room for Adobe to grow its business. That's why this tech company looks like a smart buy.\nImage source: Tesla\n2. Tesla\nThe electric vehicle (EV) market is growing quickly. Last year, global EV sales surged 41% to 3.1 million units, representing 4.6% of all cars sold. Despite that furious pace of adoption, Tesla managed to boost production and maintain its industry-leading position, capturing 16% market share in 2020.\nAt the same time, Tesla posted an industry-leading operating margin of 6.3% last year, showcasing the scalability of its manufacturing process. In fact, between 2017 and 2021, the company's average cost per vehicle dropped from $84,000 to $38,000 as it increased output in the U.S. and ramped production China.\nBut this disruptor is just getting started. Tesla recently purchased the largest die casting machine in the world. And in early 2021, it started making the rear body of the Model Y as a single piece of metal, cutting labor costs by combining 70 different components into one. But here's the most impressive part: To accomplish that feat, Tesla invented and patented new aluminum alloys, since existing options made poor substrates for die casting.\nNot surprisingly, Tesla has delivered impressive financial results in recent years.\n\n\n\nMetric\nQ2 2018 (TTM)\nQ2 2021 (TTM)\nCAGR\n\n\n\n\nRevenue\n$13.7 billion\n$41.9 billion\n45%\n\n\nGross profit margin\n14.4%\n22%\nN/A\n\n\n\nSource: Ycharts. TTM = trailing-12-months. CAGR = compound annual growth rate.\nDuring the Q2 earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said Gigafactory Texas and Berlin will use single-piece casting for both the front and rear bodies of the Model Y. In other words, Tesla is pressing its advantage. And as these factories come online later in 2021, the company should reap the benefits of increased production capacity and manufacturing efficiency.\nThat's why now looks like a good time to buy this growth stock.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831869824,"gmtCreate":1629300712968,"gmtModify":1676529997726,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to go up","listText":"Time to go up","text":"Time to go up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20d65314760062c46a2dad5b276d516a","width":"1125","height":"3786"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831869824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893081866,"gmtCreate":1628221156355,"gmtModify":1703503439101,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems to be going up rapidly","listText":"Seems to be going up rapidly","text":"Seems to be going up rapidly","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d777f2d1ed82eeb6b4b4f5081d2b81","width":"1125","height":"3887"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893081866","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":80,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899627936,"gmtCreate":1628180315025,"gmtModify":1703502767340,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To buy or not to buy&nbsp;","listText":"To buy or not to buy&nbsp;","text":"To buy or not to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899627936","repostId":"1151835705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899625728,"gmtCreate":1628180194864,"gmtModify":1703502766852,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it keep increasing?&nbsp;","listText":"Will it keep increasing?&nbsp;","text":"Will it keep increasing?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fe69c73483754594e149db5bf11fae","width":"1125","height":"3613"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/899625728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801758035,"gmtCreate":1627537198527,"gmtModify":1703491928407,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple??","listText":"Apple??","text":"Apple??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801758035","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182616893?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>\n <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>\n <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>\n <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p>\n<p><b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p>\n<p>No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p>\n<p>For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p>\n<p>Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p>\n<p>That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p>\n<p>And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p>\n<p><b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p>\n<p>Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p>\n<p>Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p>\n<p>So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p>\n<p>This was just a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p>\n<p>The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p>\n<p>These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p>\n<p>As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p>\n<p>So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p>\n<p>In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p>\n<p>Products: $68 billion</p>\n<p>Services: $33 billion</p>\n<p>To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p>\n<p>I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":197,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801751973,"gmtCreate":1627537107392,"gmtModify":1703491926470,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"[Grin]&nbsp;","text":"[Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801751973","repostId":"1182616893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182616893","pubTimestamp":1627484855,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1182616893?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 23:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182616893","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Another great quarter shows a high price may be justified.</li>\n <li>Growth in the Services business is more valuable than products.</li>\n <li>Apple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.</li>\n <li>No need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6f7d2554112e4dee2a40087e9bf4cc7\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>yalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>After another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.</p>\n<p><b>Is this the best business in the world?</b></p>\n<p>No less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.</p>\n<p>For years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.</p>\n<p>Because Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb0d32106e13dc45cccafb285b3f3826\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"579\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source:Inomics.com</span></p>\n<p>That is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).</p>\n<p>And still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.</p>\n<p><b>Third Quarter earnings look great</b></p>\n<p>Apple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"</p>\n<p>Instead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45679571c0de1db41e28b83d33d6349\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"203\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, from company earnings reports</span></p>\n<p>So as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.</p>\n<p>This was just a great quarter.</p>\n<p><b>A simple model for Apple's earnings</b></p>\n<p>The job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d70528687fa0c27af0e4ef2041585d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Koyfin</span></p>\n<p>For the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.</p>\n<p>These two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/639441b9f33b4c8b2f99441d75311cdf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd6062dede578f1362242b659308402\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10K</span></p>\n<p>As you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a271923040bd86ee7f9389e7a14cc2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"178\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple form 10Q</span></p>\n<p>So all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.</p>\n<p>For the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.</p>\n<p>In last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:</p>\n<p>Products: $68 billion</p>\n<p>Services: $33 billion</p>\n<p>To arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52dfe1fc61655b211e640159d477cad5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"133\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p>\n<p>So using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>There are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.</p>\n<p>I wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Big Quarter For The World's Greatest Business\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 23:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442013-apple-big-quarter-for-the-worlds-greatest-business","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182616893","content_text":"Summary\n\nAnother great quarter shows a high price may be justified.\nGrowth in the Services business is more valuable than products.\nApple looks like a great company, but a fairly valued one.\nNo need to buy here, but no reason to sell either.\n\nyalcinsonat1/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter another great quarter, I'm kind of awed by what Apple (AAPL) has accomplished, the number of customers who love their products and the financial results all that brings together. I'm genuinely surprised by how big these earnings numbers get. My goal here is just to explain how I would put a range of valuations on Apple's stock, and then we can work backwards to figure out what kinds of assumptions are \"baked in\" to different stock price levels.\nIs this the best business in the world?\nNo less an authority than Warren Buffett has called Apple \"probably the best business in the world\" and it's easy to understand why. Apple's primary products are the iPhone (with popularaccessories) and Mac computers and the iPad.\nFor years I made the mistake of analyzing Apple's products by comparing their capabilities and specifications to other products at similar price points. This was a huge mistake. Rather, the right way to look at it in this case is how people feel about the company.Its products not only make people happy, but they have become part of people's identities. I wouldn't normally fawn over a company or its products in this way in an analytical article, but it's important for the next point I want to make.\nBecause Apple's products are so highly valued by its customers, its products have a high consumer surplus (pink area in the graph below):\nSource:Inomics.com\nThat is to say that many people would be willing to pay more for what they get from their iPhones. This means two important things for Apple's business. First, they have some room to increase prices over time. Second, it would be very difficult for a competitor to offer something else as satisfying at a similar price. That means that Apple pursues a profit-maximizing strategy by keeping its prices relatively low compared to what it could charge(i.e., how many people do you know who already have iPhones would pick a different phone even if they had to pay an extra $100?).\nAnd still, the earnings power of the business is enormous.\nThird Quarter earnings look great\nApple's third quarter resultswere extremely strong, with almost $82 billion in sales and over $21 billion in net income. News reports have talked about year-over-year growth and I assumed that Apple would be merely overcoming an \"easy comp\" since one year ago was some of the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. That is to say I expected this quarter to be weak in its own right and subsequent results would not only be coming off an unusually low base, but would also include some delayed purchases as people who would have bought early \"caught up.\"\nInstead I was surprised to find that Apple also grew in the third quarter of 2020 (Apple's fiscal year ends at the end of September, so we're in the third quarter)! This spreadsheet shows how revenue and earnings have grown in the last threeyears' worth of third quarters:\nSource: Author, from company earnings reports\nSo as we can see, Apple in fact grew earnings through both product sales and services in the depths of the pandemic. So if there's an \"easy comp\" problem, it's still in a business that grew anyhow. Just as likely is that without the option to travel or eat in restaurants, people with disposable income were more likely to spend on Apple products.\nThis was just a great quarter.\nA simple model for Apple's earnings\nThe job now is to put this in context. I made this chart using Apple's trailing twelve month earnings for the last five years to show not only the scale but also the growth of what we're talking about:\nSource: Koyfin\nFor the last four quarters, net income is $86 billion. But as we saw above, Apple breaks its sales into two segments, products and services. And services is growing apace.\nThese two items from Apple's last annual report tell the tale of a growing and increasingly profitable services business:\nSource: Apple\nSource: Apple form 10K\nAs you can see in the first chart, Services revenue grew over three years from almost $40 billion to almost $54 billion, and in the second chart you can see that it became increasingly profitable with gross margins increasing as revenue increased. This is common in software and media endeavors; if your service can pay the bills with 1 million customers and you add another customer for free, each additional one is \"pure profit.\" We can see that these trends have only increased in the first three quarters of this year:\nSource: Apple form 10Q\nSo all this is to say that rather than use the $86 billion number to value Apple going forward, I want to put separate multiples on the \"Products\" and \"Services\" businesses.\nFor the last nine months, Apple had a gross margin of almost $118 billion. In the same 10Q they reported $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes. If we considered these Products and Services assumptions as separate businesses and allocated those expenses and taxes among them, I would do it in proportion to their share of gross margin. So 29% of that $32.5 billion in operating expenses and $11.8 billion in income taxes goes to Services, and 71% to Products.\nFor the last nine months, that means Products would have earned $51 billion and Services would have earned $25 billion. I realize this rough number is 2 billion higher than the amount Apple reported as net income, but that's OK since we're making a lot of assumptions here.\nIn last year's fourth quarter Apple only earned slightly more than in the third. So to estimate a full year, I'm just multiplying my nine-month numbers by 4/3. I get a full year estimates of the following by segment:\nProducts: $68 billion\nServices: $33 billion\nTo arrive at a valuation, I want to offer a range of multiples and let the reader find the number that seems most reasonable to her:\nSource: Author\nSo using my \"back-of-the-envelope\" numbers, I would feel pretty comfortable buying Apple at a 16x multiple for its products business and a 25x multiple for its services, which yields and an enterprise value of $1,088 + $825 = $1,913. Throw in Apple's $89 billion in additional net cash, and I would be interested in buying shares at a market capitalization of $2,002 billion, or about 16% below recent prices - namely $123 per share.\nOn the other hand, I would start to be concerned that if we paid more than 25x for the Products business and 33x for the services business that perhaps the valuation is getting ahead of itself. So at a market cap of $1,700 + $1089 + $89 = $2,878 billion or $173 share, I would think that's too high a price to pay today to earn a good return.\nConclusion\nThere are a lot of things that could go keep Apple from being a good investment, but it's hard to imagine them when looking at results like this. I wouldn't be concerned about someone else building a better phone. Rather what would concern me most are the \"unknown unknowns\" such as some kid of change of technology that makes Apple's advantage in customer satisfaction from the iPhone not that relevant.\nI wish I could reach more of a firm buy/sell conclusion about Apple's share price here, but it looks fairly valued to me based on some reasonable assumptions. I would be interested in buying (or selling puts) below $120 share.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801727860,"gmtCreate":1627536926650,"gmtModify":1703491921099,"author":{"id":"3585485440933501","authorId":"3585485440933501","name":"Debdebz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585485440933501","authorIdStr":"3585485440933501"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Soaring back up&nbsp;","listText":"Soaring back up&nbsp;","text":"Soaring back up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70d6aa4e69c7b0e3bfaed56fd68731b7","width":"1125","height":"3439"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801727860","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}