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2023-07-30
Danaher: I'm Buying This Compounder On Any Weakness
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This healthcare-focused corporation is currently my 8th-largest investment after I aggressively added to it during this year's various sell-offs. My most recent article, titled Danager Sells Off - I'm Buying, was written in April when the stock sold off more than 6% after earnings. Since then, the stock has risen 14%, as just-released earnings have caused the stock to break out from the downtrend that started in 2021. FINVIZ This downtrend was fueled by rising rates and evaporating COVID benefits. While both of these headwinds are still an issue, they are quickly fading, allowing investors to focus on the company's core business again, which continues to fare extremely well. In this article, I'll cover these numbers and explain why I'm a buyer on any corrections down the road. So, let's get to it!","content":"<html><body><p><figure><picture> <img height=\"1024px\" loading=\"lazy\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>May Lim</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>Introduction</h2> <p>It's time to talk about one of the two stocks in my portfolio with a sub-1% dividend yield: <strong>Danaher Corporation (<span>NYSE:DHR</span>)</strong>.</p> <p>This healthcare-focused corporation is currently my 8th-largest investment after I aggressively added to it during<span> this year's various sell-offs.</span></p> <p>My most recent article, titled <em>Danager Sells Off - I'm Buying, </em>was written in April when the stock sold off more than 6% after earnings.</p> <p>Since then, the stock has risen 14%, as just-released earnings have caused the stock to break out from the downtrend that started in 2021.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-16906273218427556.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>FINVIZ</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>This downtrend was fueled by rising rates and evaporating COVID benefits. While both of these headwinds are still an issue, they are quickly fading, allowing investors to focus on the company's core business again, which continues to fare extremely well.</p> <p>In this article, I'll cover these numbers<span> and explain why I'm a buyer on any corrections down the road.</span></p> <p>So, let's get to it!</p> <h2>A Quick Look Into DBS</h2> <p>In the second quarter of 2023, Danaher reported a solid performance despite facing a more dynamic (read: challenging) operating environment.</p> <ul> <li>Revenue came in at $7.16 billion, which is 7.6% below the prior-year result and $40 million above estimates.</li> <li>Adjusted EPS came in at $2.05, which beat estimates by $0.03. However, it's a 25.7% year-on-year decline.</li> </ul> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-16906216420841687.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Before we dive into the segment performances, Danaher attributes its success in this challenging environment to the Danaher Business System (\"DBS\"), which enabled them to navigate challenging conditions effectively.</p> <p>By mitigating supply chain constraints, enhancing productivity, and improving manufacturing throughput, the company managed to maintain its quarterly revenue, earnings, and cash flow expectations.</p> <p>DBS is the company's philosophy to efficiently run its $190 billion M&A-focused company.</p> <p>According to the company:</p> <blockquote> <p><em>DBS is not only the set of business processes and tools our operating companies use on a daily basis, but is more broadly our culture. As reflected in our logo, DBS features five core values (the “Core Values”):</em></p> <p><em>1.The Best Team Wins</em></p> <p><em>2.Customers Talk, We Listen</em></p> <p><em>3.Kaizen<strong>*</strong> is our Way of Life</em></p> <p><em>4.Innovation Defines our Future</em></p> <p><em>5.We Compete for Shareholders</em></p> </blockquote> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313616/000031361623000087/dhr-20221231_g2.jpg\"/> </picture><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <blockquote><p><em><strong>*</strong>A Kaizen Event is <strong>designed to support an effective, short-term brainstorming session that focuses on a single challenge and improves an existing process</strong>. The term is loosely translated from the Japanese to “change for the good.” - Six Sigma Daily</em></p></blockquote> <p>Without going into too much detail, this system allows the company to gain an increasing competitive edge in its industry. The company aims for strong core revenue growth and higher margins, which fuels free cash flow.</p> <p>In addition to its dividend, free cash flow is used to acquire new companies that are integrated into its DBS system, allowing the company to accelerate revenue and free cash flow growth.</p> <p>I often compare these companies to someone playing Monopoly. The moment someone has a competitive edge (i.e., more houses than the other players), the odds are that this person will win, as rent collection is higher, allowing that person to buy even more houses and hotels.</p> <p>For example, when Danaher bought Pall in 2015, it focused on a smooth integration using DBS principles. It led to 50% more new product launches, higher customer satisfaction, and significant cost savings.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-16906225116931458.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Also, speaking of Pall, in May, Danaher completed the combination of Cytiva and Pall Life Sciences, creating what the company calls a <em>premier global bioprocessing franchise</em>.</p> <p>Cytiva's portfolio offers end-to-end solutions across major therapeutic modalities and an innovation engine focused on helping customers bring life-saving therapies to market faster and more efficiently.</p> <p>With all of this in mind, let's go back to the 2Q23 discussion.</p> <h2>What Happened In 2Q23, And Why Does It Matter?</h2> <p>In the second quarter, Danaher's sales reached $7.2 billion, with core revenue declining by 7%. The company delivered a 2% growth rate in its base business, which was offset by a COVID-19 revenue headwind of approximately 9%.</p> <p>COVID was a significant tailwind from 2020 through 2022. Now it's a huge headwind, as the pandemic has entered the history books. This means demand for testing and other COVID-related issues has fallen off a cliff.</p> <p>Looking at the table below (my apologies for this horrible blue color), we see the aforementioned 7% decline in core revenue. In this case, we see that the impact of COVID-related activities was 9%, which is a huge number. Excluding COVID, growth would have been 2.0%.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-16906229429776113.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Excluding items doesn't change reality. It's still a 7% organic revenue decline. However, by excluding COVID, we can assess the health of the company's core business. Everyone knew that COVID would be a headwind. That's not a problem caused by the company.</p> <p>What matters is that the core business remains healthy.</p> <p>Having said that, developed markets experienced a decline in core revenues in the high single digits, mainly due to the aforementioned lower COVID-19 revenues. High-growth markets saw a decline in core revenues in the low single digits, with China being down roughly 10%.</p> <p>As one can imagine, these developments also impacted its margins.</p> <p>Danaher's gross profit margin for the second quarter was 56.5%, while the operating margin declined to 20% (down 840 basis points).</p> <p>The decrease in operating margin was attributed to lower volume in the Biotechnology and Diagnostics segments and costs incurred to adjust the capacity and cost structure in response to COVID-19 transitioning to an endemic state.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-1690623505904869.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Despite these challenges, Danaher generated $1.6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, bringing the year-to-date free cash flow to net income conversion ratio to more than 125%, which shows its ability to generate high free cash flow. It's also indicative of high-quality earnings.</p> <p>With this in mind, let's take a look at the individual performances of the company's segments, which revealed a lot about COVID developments and core strengths (and weaknesses).</p> <p>The <strong>Biotechnology</strong> segment reported a decline of 17% in reported revenue and 16.5% in core revenue during the second quarter. Market conditions in bioprocessing weakened further as the quarter progressed, resulting in a high single-digit base business decline.</p> <p>Larger customers were still working through pandemic-built inventory while emerging biotech customers were conserving capital. The ongoing biopharma market correction in China also intensified during the quarter.</p> <p>To address these headwinds, Danaher began actively working with larger customers to help them manage their inventory down to normalized levels.</p> <p>While the impact of high rates and COVID headwinds are an issue, the company is upbeat about this segment's future, as it sees an increasing number of biologic and genomic medicines in development and significant regulatory approvals for <em>groundbreaking </em>therapies.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-16906239935902991.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The <strong>Life Sciences</strong> segment reported a 5.5% increase in revenue, with core revenue also rising by 5.5%. This growth was driven by high single-digit expansion in the base business.</p> <p>The Life Sciences instrument businesses, including Leica Microsystems and SCIEX, contributed to mid-single-digit core revenue growth.</p> <p>Strong demand in the life science, research, academic, and applied markets, particularly for advanced instrumentation, helped offset softer performance in the pharma and biopharma sectors.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-1690624064489737.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>In the <strong>Diagnostics</strong> segment, reported revenue decreased by 13%, and core revenue declined by 11.5%.</p> <p>The significant decline was primarily due to lower COVID-related respiratory testing volumes at Cepheid, which more than offset high single-digit growth in the base business. Despite this, the clinical diagnostics businesses achieved mid-single-digit core revenue growth, which is good news given that the main focus is on its core business.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-1690624258099987.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The <strong>Environmental & Applied Solutions</strong> segment, which will be spun off later this year, reported revenue growth of 2% and core revenue growth of 1.5%.</p> <p>As the first table in this article displayed, this segment has no COVID exposure.</p> <p>Water quality core revenue saw mid-single-digit growth, while product identification declined mid-single digits. In water quality, solid growth was driven by DBS-led execution in industrial and applied end markets, with a strong performance at ChemTreat and Hach.</p> <p>Trojan also experienced strong equipment sales and order rates due to continued investment in larger municipal projects.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-16906247266973233.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>During the 2Q23 earnings call, Danaher mentioned that the spin-off, which will be called Veralto, is on track to be finalized in the fourth quarter.</p> <p>The Veralto team is planning an Analyst Day in Chicago on September 6, which means we'll get a lot more data very soon.</p> <h2>Outlook & Valuation</h2> <p>In 3Q23, Danaher expects core revenue in the base business to decline by low single digits year-over-year. Total core revenue is expected to decline in the low to mid-teens percent range, primarily due to lower demand for COVID-19 testing, vaccines, and therapeutics.</p> <p>The third quarter adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be approximately 26%, reflecting efforts to adjust cost structures and capacity in response to COVID transitioning to an endemic state, especially within the Diagnostics and Biotechnology businesses.</p> <p>That said, for the full year 2023, Danaher anticipates low single-digit core revenue growth in the base business due to near-term challenges in bioprocessing.</p> <p>Total core revenue is expected to decline high single to low double digits for the year, mainly due to lower demand for COVID-19 testing, vaccines, and therapeutics.</p> <p>The full-year adjusted operating profit margin is projected to be approximately 29%.</p> <p>Based on this context, DHR has lost momentum. Looking at analyst estimates, the company is not expected to reach a new record in free cash flow before 2025.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-1690625949874969.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Leo Nelissen</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>Using 2024 estimates, the company is trading at 26x free cash flow, which is fair but far from deep value.</p> <p><figure><img height=\"366\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/saupload_a565141400376f2a058f0a3efbf7d420.png\" width=\"635\"/><figcaption>Data by YCharts</figcaption></figure></p> <p>Furthermore, the company is trading at 22.5x NTM EBITDA. As ex-COVID core revenue growth was just 2.0% in 2Q23, it's hard to make the case that this valuation is warranted.</p> <p>Nonetheless, once COVID headwinds fade, the company is in a great spot to generate double-digit annual free cash flow growth, which makes the current valuation more than fair.</p> <p>Last year, the company showed that its long-term plan (after spinning off Veralto) aims for high-single-digit annual growth in all of its segments on a long-term basis.</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2023/7/29/31557165-1690626665678218.png\"/></span><figcaption><p><span>Danaher Corporation</span></p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The current consensus price target is $274, which is 5% above the current price.</p> <p>Using a 26x FCF multiple and 2025 estimates, I would put a $290 price target on the stock.</p> <p>While I'm not adding more exposure at current prices, I'm a buyer on any sell-offs that exceed 10%, as that would make the long-term risk/reward much more attractive.</p> <p>Also, because I have been an aggressive buyer in prior months, I do not feel the urge to chase stock price rallies.</p> <h2>Takeaway</h2> <p>Danaher Corporation has shown resilience in a challenging operating environment, with its Danaher Business System playing a key role in navigating through headwinds.</p> <p>Despite a decline in core revenue due to the fading impact of COVID-related activities, the company's core business remains healthy.</p> <p>With the spin-off of the Environmental & Applied Solutions segment as Veralto on the horizon and new biotech tailwinds, analysts are optimistic about the future.</p> <p>While the current valuation may not appear deeply undervalued, the potential for double-digit annual free cash flow growth once COVID headwinds subside makes the stock attractive for long-term investors.</p> <div></div> <p>As a long-term investor, I'm eyeing potential buy opportunities on corrections, aiming for a risk/reward balance that aligns with my portfolio strategy.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDanaher: I'm Buying This Compounder On Any Weakness\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-07-29 21:55 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4621480-danaher-im-buying-this-compounder-on-any-weakness><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>May Lim Introduction It's time to talk about one of the two stocks in my portfolio with a sub-1% dividend yield: Danaher Corporation (NYSE:DHR). This healthcare-focused corporation is currently my 8th...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4621480-danaher-im-buying-this-compounder-on-any-weakness\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1422563923/image_1422563923.jpg","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0321505868.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU2125910179.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Water H-R/A SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU2125910336.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Water R/A SGD","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU1923621640.USD":"Natixis Thematics Water R/A USD","LU0882574055.USD":"富达全球健康医疗A ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU0511384066.AUD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU0122379950.USD":"贝莱德世界健康科学A2","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0289961442.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (SGD) ACC","BK4515":"5G概念","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SG9999001176.USD":"United Global Healthcare Acc USD","LU0289739343.SGD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (SGD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","LU0114720955.EUR":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL HEALTH CARE \"A\" INC","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU2125909247.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Meta H-R/A SGD","SG9999001176.SGD":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE \"SGD\" (ACC)","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","BK4121":"生命科学工具和服务","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1791710582.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD (SGD/USD hedged)","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","DHR":"丹纳赫","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4621480-danaher-im-buying-this-compounder-on-any-weakness","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2355169172","content_text":"May Lim Introduction It's time to talk about one of the two stocks in my portfolio with a sub-1% dividend yield: Danaher Corporation (NYSE:DHR). This healthcare-focused corporation is currently my 8th-largest investment after I aggressively added to it during this year's various sell-offs. My most recent article, titled Danager Sells Off - I'm Buying, was written in April when the stock sold off more than 6% after earnings. Since then, the stock has risen 14%, as just-released earnings have caused the stock to break out from the downtrend that started in 2021. FINVIZ This downtrend was fueled by rising rates and evaporating COVID benefits. While both of these headwinds are still an issue, they are quickly fading, allowing investors to focus on the company's core business again, which continues to fare extremely well. In this article, I'll cover these numbers and explain why I'm a buyer on any corrections down the road. So, let's get to it! A Quick Look Into DBS In the second quarter of 2023, Danaher reported a solid performance despite facing a more dynamic (read: challenging) operating environment. Revenue came in at $7.16 billion, which is 7.6% below the prior-year result and $40 million above estimates. Adjusted EPS came in at $2.05, which beat estimates by $0.03. However, it's a 25.7% year-on-year decline. Danaher Corporation Before we dive into the segment performances, Danaher attributes its success in this challenging environment to the Danaher Business System (\"DBS\"), which enabled them to navigate challenging conditions effectively. By mitigating supply chain constraints, enhancing productivity, and improving manufacturing throughput, the company managed to maintain its quarterly revenue, earnings, and cash flow expectations. DBS is the company's philosophy to efficiently run its $190 billion M&A-focused company. According to the company: DBS is not only the set of business processes and tools our operating companies use on a daily basis, but is more broadly our culture. As reflected in our logo, DBS features five core values (the “Core Values”): 1.The Best Team Wins 2.Customers Talk, We Listen 3.Kaizen* is our Way of Life 4.Innovation Defines our Future 5.We Compete for Shareholders Danaher Corporation *A Kaizen Event is designed to support an effective, short-term brainstorming session that focuses on a single challenge and improves an existing process. The term is loosely translated from the Japanese to “change for the good.” - Six Sigma Daily Without going into too much detail, this system allows the company to gain an increasing competitive edge in its industry. The company aims for strong core revenue growth and higher margins, which fuels free cash flow. In addition to its dividend, free cash flow is used to acquire new companies that are integrated into its DBS system, allowing the company to accelerate revenue and free cash flow growth. I often compare these companies to someone playing Monopoly. The moment someone has a competitive edge (i.e., more houses than the other players), the odds are that this person will win, as rent collection is higher, allowing that person to buy even more houses and hotels. For example, when Danaher bought Pall in 2015, it focused on a smooth integration using DBS principles. It led to 50% more new product launches, higher customer satisfaction, and significant cost savings. Danaher Corporation Also, speaking of Pall, in May, Danaher completed the combination of Cytiva and Pall Life Sciences, creating what the company calls a premier global bioprocessing franchise. Cytiva's portfolio offers end-to-end solutions across major therapeutic modalities and an innovation engine focused on helping customers bring life-saving therapies to market faster and more efficiently. With all of this in mind, let's go back to the 2Q23 discussion. What Happened In 2Q23, And Why Does It Matter? In the second quarter, Danaher's sales reached $7.2 billion, with core revenue declining by 7%. The company delivered a 2% growth rate in its base business, which was offset by a COVID-19 revenue headwind of approximately 9%. COVID was a significant tailwind from 2020 through 2022. Now it's a huge headwind, as the pandemic has entered the history books. This means demand for testing and other COVID-related issues has fallen off a cliff. Looking at the table below (my apologies for this horrible blue color), we see the aforementioned 7% decline in core revenue. In this case, we see that the impact of COVID-related activities was 9%, which is a huge number. Excluding COVID, growth would have been 2.0%. Danaher Corporation Excluding items doesn't change reality. It's still a 7% organic revenue decline. However, by excluding COVID, we can assess the health of the company's core business. Everyone knew that COVID would be a headwind. That's not a problem caused by the company. What matters is that the core business remains healthy. Having said that, developed markets experienced a decline in core revenues in the high single digits, mainly due to the aforementioned lower COVID-19 revenues. High-growth markets saw a decline in core revenues in the low single digits, with China being down roughly 10%. As one can imagine, these developments also impacted its margins. Danaher's gross profit margin for the second quarter was 56.5%, while the operating margin declined to 20% (down 840 basis points). The decrease in operating margin was attributed to lower volume in the Biotechnology and Diagnostics segments and costs incurred to adjust the capacity and cost structure in response to COVID-19 transitioning to an endemic state. Danaher Corporation Despite these challenges, Danaher generated $1.6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, bringing the year-to-date free cash flow to net income conversion ratio to more than 125%, which shows its ability to generate high free cash flow. It's also indicative of high-quality earnings. With this in mind, let's take a look at the individual performances of the company's segments, which revealed a lot about COVID developments and core strengths (and weaknesses). The Biotechnology segment reported a decline of 17% in reported revenue and 16.5% in core revenue during the second quarter. Market conditions in bioprocessing weakened further as the quarter progressed, resulting in a high single-digit base business decline. Larger customers were still working through pandemic-built inventory while emerging biotech customers were conserving capital. The ongoing biopharma market correction in China also intensified during the quarter. To address these headwinds, Danaher began actively working with larger customers to help them manage their inventory down to normalized levels. While the impact of high rates and COVID headwinds are an issue, the company is upbeat about this segment's future, as it sees an increasing number of biologic and genomic medicines in development and significant regulatory approvals for groundbreaking therapies. Danaher Corporation The Life Sciences segment reported a 5.5% increase in revenue, with core revenue also rising by 5.5%. This growth was driven by high single-digit expansion in the base business. The Life Sciences instrument businesses, including Leica Microsystems and SCIEX, contributed to mid-single-digit core revenue growth. Strong demand in the life science, research, academic, and applied markets, particularly for advanced instrumentation, helped offset softer performance in the pharma and biopharma sectors. Danaher Corporation In the Diagnostics segment, reported revenue decreased by 13%, and core revenue declined by 11.5%. The significant decline was primarily due to lower COVID-related respiratory testing volumes at Cepheid, which more than offset high single-digit growth in the base business. Despite this, the clinical diagnostics businesses achieved mid-single-digit core revenue growth, which is good news given that the main focus is on its core business. Danaher Corporation The Environmental & Applied Solutions segment, which will be spun off later this year, reported revenue growth of 2% and core revenue growth of 1.5%. As the first table in this article displayed, this segment has no COVID exposure. Water quality core revenue saw mid-single-digit growth, while product identification declined mid-single digits. In water quality, solid growth was driven by DBS-led execution in industrial and applied end markets, with a strong performance at ChemTreat and Hach. Trojan also experienced strong equipment sales and order rates due to continued investment in larger municipal projects. Danaher Corporation During the 2Q23 earnings call, Danaher mentioned that the spin-off, which will be called Veralto, is on track to be finalized in the fourth quarter. The Veralto team is planning an Analyst Day in Chicago on September 6, which means we'll get a lot more data very soon. Outlook & Valuation In 3Q23, Danaher expects core revenue in the base business to decline by low single digits year-over-year. Total core revenue is expected to decline in the low to mid-teens percent range, primarily due to lower demand for COVID-19 testing, vaccines, and therapeutics. The third quarter adjusted operating profit margin is expected to be approximately 26%, reflecting efforts to adjust cost structures and capacity in response to COVID transitioning to an endemic state, especially within the Diagnostics and Biotechnology businesses. That said, for the full year 2023, Danaher anticipates low single-digit core revenue growth in the base business due to near-term challenges in bioprocessing. Total core revenue is expected to decline high single to low double digits for the year, mainly due to lower demand for COVID-19 testing, vaccines, and therapeutics. The full-year adjusted operating profit margin is projected to be approximately 29%. Based on this context, DHR has lost momentum. Looking at analyst estimates, the company is not expected to reach a new record in free cash flow before 2025. Leo Nelissen Using 2024 estimates, the company is trading at 26x free cash flow, which is fair but far from deep value. Data by YCharts Furthermore, the company is trading at 22.5x NTM EBITDA. As ex-COVID core revenue growth was just 2.0% in 2Q23, it's hard to make the case that this valuation is warranted. Nonetheless, once COVID headwinds fade, the company is in a great spot to generate double-digit annual free cash flow growth, which makes the current valuation more than fair. Last year, the company showed that its long-term plan (after spinning off Veralto) aims for high-single-digit annual growth in all of its segments on a long-term basis. Danaher Corporation The current consensus price target is $274, which is 5% above the current price. Using a 26x FCF multiple and 2025 estimates, I would put a $290 price target on the stock. While I'm not adding more exposure at current prices, I'm a buyer on any sell-offs that exceed 10%, as that would make the long-term risk/reward much more attractive. Also, because I have been an aggressive buyer in prior months, I do not feel the urge to chase stock price rallies. Takeaway Danaher Corporation has shown resilience in a challenging operating environment, with its Danaher Business System playing a key role in navigating through headwinds. Despite a decline in core revenue due to the fading impact of COVID-related activities, the company's core business remains healthy. With the spin-off of the Environmental & Applied Solutions segment as Veralto on the horizon and new biotech tailwinds, analysts are optimistic about the future. While the current valuation may not appear deeply undervalued, the potential for double-digit annual free cash flow growth once COVID headwinds subside makes the stock attractive for long-term investors. As a long-term investor, I'm eyeing potential buy opportunities on corrections, aiming for a risk/reward balance that aligns with my portfolio strategy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":54,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957784906,"gmtCreate":1677554100406,"gmtModify":1677554263872,"author":{"id":"3585753897990234","authorId":"3585753897990234","name":"SGKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957784906","repostId":"2314359428","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9957784005,"gmtCreate":1677554094907,"gmtModify":1677554264000,"author":{"id":"3585753897990234","authorId":"3585753897990234","name":"SGKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"themes":[],"htmlText":"4","listText":"4","text":"4","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957784005","repostId":"2314359428","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2314359428","pubTimestamp":1677552537,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2314359428?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-28 10:48","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Banks Continue to See Double-Digit Increases in Profits – Can This Be Sustained?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2314359428","media":"CNA","summary":"One analyst expects the growth in earnings to be “less significant” than last year due to growing funding and operating costs.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>One analyst expects the growth in earnings to be “less significant” than last year due to growing funding and operating costs.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c93301d406bec44868b7c6dda499d94\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>A row of ATMs in Singapore. (File photo: CNA/Jeremy Long)</span></p><p>SINGAPORE: Singapore’s three local banks chalked up record-breaking profits last year on the back of higher interest rates, but uncertainties around rate cycles and global growth may crimp earnings moving forward, analysts said.</p><p>DBS – the first of the three local lenders to release earnings results on Feb 13 – said its fourth-quarter net profit soared 69 per cent year-on-year to hit a new record of S$2.34 billion. This blew past analysts’ estimates of S$2.16 billion and marked a second straight quarter of record-breaking profits.</p><p>For the full year, net profit grew 20 per cent to S$8.19 billion – also a record performance.</p><p>UOB and OCBC followed up with their report cards last week.</p><p>UOB’s core net profit for the fourth quarter rose 37 per cent to S$1.4 billion, beating analysts’ forecast of S$1.2 billion. Including one-off expenses such as the acquisition of Citi’s consumer banking businesses in parts of Asia, quarterly net profit was S$1.15 billion, up 13 per cent from a year ago.</p><p>For the full year, core net profit increased 18 per cent to S$4.82 billion, while net profit gained 12 per cent to S$4.57 billion after taking into account the one-off expenses. Both are new record highs.</p><p>Over at OCBC, fourth-quarter net profit rose 34 per cent from a year ago to S$1.31 billion, missing a S$1.6 billion estimate based on analysts polled by Bloomberg.</p><p>Full-year net profit was up 18 per cent to a new high of S$5.75 billion.</p><p>After ending 2022 on “a solid note”, the three banks are set to improve their profitability further in 2023, said Mr Eugene Tarzimanov, vice-president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service.</p><p>“Yet the pace of change will be less significant than last year because of growing funding and operating costs,” he added.</p><h2>CAUTIOUS OUTLOOK</h2><p>Rising interest rates have been a boon for local lenders, as seen from the double-digit growth in net interest income – earnings on loans minus deposit costs – and net interest margins last year.</p><p>But with the US Federal Reserve on track for smaller interest-rate hikes this year, banks will start seeing slower earnings growth on this front, said IG’s market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.</p><p>Funding costs are also catching up amid the continued competition for deposits, which may see growth momentum in net interest margins “start to come off notably”, said Mr Thilan Wickramasinghe, head of research at Maybank Securities in Singapore.</p><p>Top executives at the banks have flagged a cautious outlook.</p><p>OCBC, for instance, is guiding a net interest margin of about 2.1 per cent this year versus 1.91 per cent for 2022 and 2.31 per cent in the latest quarter.</p><p>Speaking at the bank’s results briefing last week, group chief executive Helen Wong said global interest rates may plateau and even taper in the second half of 2023.</p><p>“I don’t want to paint too rosy a picture as we go into the rest of the year,” she was quoted as saying in an article by The Business Times.</p><p>There could also be challenges in loan growth amid fears of a global recession, although the reopening of China may “provide some tailwinds”, said Mr Wickramasinghe.</p><p>Mr Pramod Shenoi, co-head of Asia-Pacific research at CreditSights, noted that each bank has its focus areas when it comes to loan growth. For example, DBS is banking on its large corporate pipeline, while OCBC and China are optimistic about China’s reopening and the region’s growth prospects.</p><p>Still, loan growth “is likely to be difficult and competition is likely to be more intense, thereby not allowing rate rises to be passed through as expecting and capping net interest margins,” he added.</p><p>A mixed outlook also lies ahead for the banks’ fee income from wealth and retail segments.</p><p>Wealth management fees have been muted given choppy markets. Mr Wickramasinghe said this would pick up when the market outlook becomes clearer, but that may happen only later in the year.</p><p>Higher fee income from credit cards may also be likely as more people resume overseas travel.</p><p>“But if consumers get more cautious with an uncertain economic environment, or interest rates being higher for longer and affect discretionary spending, then card spending may not see too much growth too,” said Mr Shenoi.</p><p>Asset quality is the other headwind for banks moving forward, experts said.</p><p>“Corporates and consumers are facing high input costs and high interest rates. This is impacting margins and disposable income, so asset quality pressure and delinquencies need to be closely watched going forward,” said Mr Wickramasinghe.</p><h2>WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SHARE PRICES</h2><p>Following their respective earnings results, shares of the banking trio have come off their highs set earlier in the year.</p><p>Shares of DBS slipped 0.17 per cent, or S$0.06, to finish at S$34.34 on Monday (Feb 27). OCBC gained 0.24 per cent, or S$0.03, to S$12.70, while UOB rose 0.3 per cent, or S$0.09, to end the trading day at S$29.94.</p><p>“I think the general downside reaction in share prices to the banks’ results reflects some concerns on whether this stellar performance can continue through 2023,” said Mr Yeap.</p><p>But this may be temporary, going by the target prices of analysts.</p><p>For example, brokerage UOB Kay Hian has a target price of S$45.80 for DBS, while RHB Group Research sees DBS’ stock hitting S$42.</p><p>For UOB, CGS-CIMB has a target price of S$33.30 and OCBC Investment Research sees the stock’s fair value at S$34.</p><p>The local banks also remain “a stable dividend play” for shareholders, especially after having upsized their dividend payouts following the upbeat fourth-quarter results, said Mr Yeap.</p><p>DBS, which pays its dividends quarterly, recommended a final dividend of S$0.42 per share and a special dividend of S$0.50 per share.</p><p>UOB and OCBC pay their dividends half-yearly. The former has declared a higher dividend of S$0.75 per share for the half-year period, while OCBC also raised its final dividend to S$0.40 per share.</p><p>OCBC also said it would target a 50 per cent dividend payout ratio going forward, as a signal that the lender will increase returns to shareholders.</p><p>“Local banks have a stellar history of maintaining their dividends even during times of an economic downturn, with the exception of the COVID-19 period due to an authorities’ dividend cap,” Mr Yeap said.</p><p>“With the recent bump higher in dividends from all three banks, dividend yields are higher than its five-year historical average,” he added.</p></body></html>","source":"can_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Banks Continue to See Double-Digit Increases in Profits – Can This Be Sustained?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Banks Continue to See Double-Digit Increases in Profits – Can This Be Sustained?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-28 10:48 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/singapore-banks-uob-dbs-ocbc-profits-rising-interest-rates-3307676><strong>CNA</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>One analyst expects the growth in earnings to be “less significant” than last year due to growing funding and operating costs.A row of ATMs in Singapore. (File photo: CNA/Jeremy Long)SINGAPORE: ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/singapore-banks-uob-dbs-ocbc-profits-rising-interest-rates-3307676\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002604.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore/Malaysia SGD","SG9999002679.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Balanced SGD","SG9999001689.USD":"施罗德亚洲成长股票","SG9999005177.SGD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Southeast Asia Trust A Acc SGD","SG9999014302.SGD":"RHB Singapore Income Fund SGD","U11.SI":"大华银行","SG9999001135.SGD":"United ASEAN Fund SGD","SG9999000475.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Singapore Equity SGD","SG9999013486.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (USD) INC A","LU0048573645.USD":"富达东盟基金","LU0251143029.SGD":"Fidelity ASEAN A-SGD","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0955669360.SGD":"Schroder ISF Asian Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD","SG9999002414.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE TRUST (USD) ACC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU0532188223.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - ASEAN Equity A (acc) SGD","LU0181495838.USD":"施罗德新兴亚洲A Acc","LU1130305938.SGD":"Schroder ISF Asian Dividend Maximiser A Dis SGD-H","SG9999016042.SGD":"Schroder Singapore Trust A Acc SGD","SG9999003826.SGD":"日兴资管新加坡股息基金 SGD","SGXZ58947870.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (SGDHDG) INC","BK6112":"综合性银行","SG9999001127.SGD":"United Singapore Growth Fund SGD","SG9999002406.SGD":"利安新加坡信托基金","LU1048588211.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Dragon A2 SGD-H","LU0072462343.USD":"贝莱德亚洲巨龙基金","O39.SI":"华侨银行","SG9999004360.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Thrift Fund SGD","D05.SI":"星展集团控股","SG9999000327.SGD":"Schroder Asian Growth A Dis SGD","BK6516":"银行与投资服务概念","SG9999013460.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Dividend Equity Fund SGD","SG9999008742.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Singapore ASEAN Equity SGD","SG9999013478.USD":"利安新加坡股息基金","BK6523":"ESG概念","SG9999000343.SGD":"Schroder Singapore Trust A Dis SGD"},"source_url":"https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/singapore-banks-uob-dbs-ocbc-profits-rising-interest-rates-3307676","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2314359428","content_text":"One analyst expects the growth in earnings to be “less significant” than last year due to growing funding and operating costs.A row of ATMs in Singapore. (File photo: CNA/Jeremy Long)SINGAPORE: Singapore’s three local banks chalked up record-breaking profits last year on the back of higher interest rates, but uncertainties around rate cycles and global growth may crimp earnings moving forward, analysts said.DBS – the first of the three local lenders to release earnings results on Feb 13 – said its fourth-quarter net profit soared 69 per cent year-on-year to hit a new record of S$2.34 billion. This blew past analysts’ estimates of S$2.16 billion and marked a second straight quarter of record-breaking profits.For the full year, net profit grew 20 per cent to S$8.19 billion – also a record performance.UOB and OCBC followed up with their report cards last week.UOB’s core net profit for the fourth quarter rose 37 per cent to S$1.4 billion, beating analysts’ forecast of S$1.2 billion. Including one-off expenses such as the acquisition of Citi’s consumer banking businesses in parts of Asia, quarterly net profit was S$1.15 billion, up 13 per cent from a year ago.For the full year, core net profit increased 18 per cent to S$4.82 billion, while net profit gained 12 per cent to S$4.57 billion after taking into account the one-off expenses. Both are new record highs.Over at OCBC, fourth-quarter net profit rose 34 per cent from a year ago to S$1.31 billion, missing a S$1.6 billion estimate based on analysts polled by Bloomberg.Full-year net profit was up 18 per cent to a new high of S$5.75 billion.After ending 2022 on “a solid note”, the three banks are set to improve their profitability further in 2023, said Mr Eugene Tarzimanov, vice-president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service.“Yet the pace of change will be less significant than last year because of growing funding and operating costs,” he added.CAUTIOUS OUTLOOKRising interest rates have been a boon for local lenders, as seen from the double-digit growth in net interest income – earnings on loans minus deposit costs – and net interest margins last year.But with the US Federal Reserve on track for smaller interest-rate hikes this year, banks will start seeing slower earnings growth on this front, said IG’s market strategist Yeap Jun Rong.Funding costs are also catching up amid the continued competition for deposits, which may see growth momentum in net interest margins “start to come off notably”, said Mr Thilan Wickramasinghe, head of research at Maybank Securities in Singapore.Top executives at the banks have flagged a cautious outlook.OCBC, for instance, is guiding a net interest margin of about 2.1 per cent this year versus 1.91 per cent for 2022 and 2.31 per cent in the latest quarter.Speaking at the bank’s results briefing last week, group chief executive Helen Wong said global interest rates may plateau and even taper in the second half of 2023.“I don’t want to paint too rosy a picture as we go into the rest of the year,” she was quoted as saying in an article by The Business Times.There could also be challenges in loan growth amid fears of a global recession, although the reopening of China may “provide some tailwinds”, said Mr Wickramasinghe.Mr Pramod Shenoi, co-head of Asia-Pacific research at CreditSights, noted that each bank has its focus areas when it comes to loan growth. For example, DBS is banking on its large corporate pipeline, while OCBC and China are optimistic about China’s reopening and the region’s growth prospects.Still, loan growth “is likely to be difficult and competition is likely to be more intense, thereby not allowing rate rises to be passed through as expecting and capping net interest margins,” he added.A mixed outlook also lies ahead for the banks’ fee income from wealth and retail segments.Wealth management fees have been muted given choppy markets. Mr Wickramasinghe said this would pick up when the market outlook becomes clearer, but that may happen only later in the year.Higher fee income from credit cards may also be likely as more people resume overseas travel.“But if consumers get more cautious with an uncertain economic environment, or interest rates being higher for longer and affect discretionary spending, then card spending may not see too much growth too,” said Mr Shenoi.Asset quality is the other headwind for banks moving forward, experts said.“Corporates and consumers are facing high input costs and high interest rates. This is impacting margins and disposable income, so asset quality pressure and delinquencies need to be closely watched going forward,” said Mr Wickramasinghe.WHAT THIS MEANS FOR SHARE PRICESFollowing their respective earnings results, shares of the banking trio have come off their highs set earlier in the year.Shares of DBS slipped 0.17 per cent, or S$0.06, to finish at S$34.34 on Monday (Feb 27). OCBC gained 0.24 per cent, or S$0.03, to S$12.70, while UOB rose 0.3 per cent, or S$0.09, to end the trading day at S$29.94.“I think the general downside reaction in share prices to the banks’ results reflects some concerns on whether this stellar performance can continue through 2023,” said Mr Yeap.But this may be temporary, going by the target prices of analysts.For example, brokerage UOB Kay Hian has a target price of S$45.80 for DBS, while RHB Group Research sees DBS’ stock hitting S$42.For UOB, CGS-CIMB has a target price of S$33.30 and OCBC Investment Research sees the stock’s fair value at S$34.The local banks also remain “a stable dividend play” for shareholders, especially after having upsized their dividend payouts following the upbeat fourth-quarter results, said Mr Yeap.DBS, which pays its dividends quarterly, recommended a final dividend of S$0.42 per share and a special dividend of S$0.50 per share.UOB and OCBC pay their dividends half-yearly. The former has declared a higher dividend of S$0.75 per share for the half-year period, while OCBC also raised its final dividend to S$0.40 per share.OCBC also said it would target a 50 per cent dividend payout ratio going forward, as a signal that the lender will increase returns to shareholders.“Local banks have a stellar history of maintaining their dividends even during times of an economic downturn, with the exception of the COVID-19 period due to an authorities’ dividend cap,” Mr Yeap said.“With the recent bump higher in dividends from all three banks, dividend yields are higher than its five-year historical average,” he added.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[],"lives":[]}
