feldman personal page - To The Moon

feldman

feldman

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11-11

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ to the moon!!

2023-12-29

[Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser] [Miser]

2023-12-29

Join it!

@TigerEvents:🐅🌟 TIGER TYCOON CHALLENGE IS ON! 🌟🐅

2022-11-01

This is a terrible day.

Mega-Cap Stocks Are Dropping in Morning Trading

2022-11-01

this is too bad

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2022-11-01

this is good to hear that.

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2021-08-06

like my comment

Facebook：全球头号网民收割机的“生意含金量”

2021-07-29

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苹果、微软、谷歌财报创纪录，但投资者还有些担忧

2021-07-20

like and comment my post

【异动】收复今日失地，蔚小理止跌回升

2021-07-15

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搜狗私有化稳了？搜狐笑了

2021-07-15

please like my comment

Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-07-10

like and commen

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2021-06-24

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朝聚眼科今起招股，一手入场费约5353.41港元

2021-06-22

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沃尔玛VS亚马逊：美国零售之王的战争

2021-06-22

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Sorry, the original content has been removed

2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？

2021-06-16

up

对冲基金投资路线图：5年内加密货币将占总资产的7%

2021-06-16

up

资本一跃，东鹏特饮失去黄金时代

2021-06-16

up

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Fastest finge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/248312805347464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982798473,"gmtCreate":1667256013592,"gmtModify":1676537884156,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is a terrible day.","listText":"This is a terrible day.","text":"This is a terrible day.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982798473","repostId":"1146462353","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146462353","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667224523,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146462353?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 21:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Mega-Cap Stocks Are Dropping in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146462353","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Mega-Cap Stocks Are Dropping in Morning Trading. Meta falls 3%; Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Google, Micros","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Mega-Cap Stocks Are Dropping in Morning Trading. Meta falls 3%; Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Google, Microsoft fall about 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bcd6a4edc83a31f436a62f5fb3b951\" tg-width=\"456\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Mega-Cap Stocks Are Dropping in Morning Trading</title>\n<style 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21:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Mega-Cap Stocks Are Dropping in Morning Trading. Meta falls 3%; Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Google, Microsoft fall about 2%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8bcd6a4edc83a31f436a62f5fb3b951\" tg-width=\"456\" tg-height=\"401\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSLA":"特斯拉","NVDA":"英伟达","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146462353","content_text":"Mega-Cap Stocks Are Dropping in Morning 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that.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982793254","repostId":"1165961334","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893638299,"gmtCreate":1628258775711,"gmtModify":1703504139728,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like my comment","listText":"like my comment","text":"like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893638299","repostId":"2157739460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2157739460","pubTimestamp":1628253571,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2157739460?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-06 20:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Facebook：全球头号网民收割机的“生意含金量”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2157739460","media":"海豚投研","summary":"Facebook 当前能看到的最大价值是 “挟流量以令广告主” 的自主调节能力。","content":"<p>作者：海豚投研</p>\n<p>早期市场在研究<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>的时候，通常会拿同为社交巨头的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>来做他山之石的对标。</p>\n<p>但进入移动互联网之后，Facebook的脚步明显慢了，拥有全球30亿的流量大盘，如今却只做成了广告生意，而腾讯则多点开花，短短几年就跃升中国泛娱乐乃至消费互联网行业的绝对龙头。</p>\n<p>不过，毕竟Facebook面向的是更加庞大的全球用户市场，所以依然能够支撑Facebook在近10年上市周期（2012至今）里面，轻松跑赢纳指。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1359f1a4c4ed8bc9f84d9a54223e199e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>上周Facebook 2021年二季度财报发布，虽然从整体业绩上看，超出市场预期。但对于用户增长的表现，市场明显还是不太满意的。</p>\n<p>尤其是在MAU增长数百万的情况下，欧美地区的DAU竟然不及去年同期， DAU的下滑实际上在一定程度上反应了走出疫情后Facebook在欧美地区用户粘性的降低。这对于平台广告投放的吸引力是显然不太友好的。</p>\n<p>除此之外，管理层对于下半年的增长指引也给的非常保守。因此财报发布后的股价表现，说明市场并没有对FB此次业绩给予奖励。</p>\n<p>前有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>ATT政策影响在即，后有用户高基数增长压力。对于当下的Facebook是否还具备多少价值空间，我们仍然需要定量分析。因此本文将重点围绕Facebook价值的未来增长机遇以及风险，来对Facebook作出估值判断。</p>\n<h2>Facebook的流量侵蚀危机？</h2>\n<p>海豚君从市场对此次FB财报最具争议的用户增长谈起。</p>\n<p>首先，当下的Facebook是妥妥的全球社交龙头。在近20年的成长过程中，以Facebook平台为核心，通过自设、收购等方式，围绕社交领域逐渐延伸自己的能力圈。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68e5998bb889db984ca4200273ac2357\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"130\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：Facebook官网</p>\n<p>截至今年二季度，Facebook整个生态（包含Facebook自身平台，生态其他平台Messenger、Instagram、WhatsApp以及新发布的板块，如Reels、Shops等等）的全球用户规模已经达到35亿，其中Facebook主体平台全球近30亿人，是当之无愧的流量巨无霸。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1612ac634c462d3d0db1bebdc5316fe5\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"181\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>但对于未来的用户增长空间，Facebook还需要发挥整个生态的力量。</p>\n<p><b>1、Facebook自身平台用户增长已几近“稳态”</b></p>\n<p>除了欧美增长基本停滞外，在无其他重大偶发性因素情况下，Facebook在亚太及其他地区预计也只能保持个位数增长。</p>\n<p>也就是说，其实在一定程度上，在经历了2020年疫情加速渗透期之后，FB主体平台的用户增长基本达到了一个相对稳态，未来的用户增量更多的是靠互联网渗透率的自然提高带来。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c14bb2637805df1d5443a0923f52bf\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"201\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>这样的数据虽然单纯看上去没有多少吸引力，但若是放在同行堆里横向对比下，其实已经算是优越。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/090c59c86f37e3781eab09d986c2ba17\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a>、Snapchat财报</p>\n<p><b>2、从图文到流媒体，抢夺的更多的是用户时长</b></p>\n<p>当然如果剔除疫情因素，几大社交平台的流量增速都存在趋势性放缓，甚至增长并不轻松。全球互联网渗透率在2018年也似乎进入一个小瓶颈。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffbd1de6410c3cc14df4ac1a159e5e24\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：IWS、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>但与此同时，YouTube、TikTok等流媒体平台的腾飞景象却又大不相同。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b26aad427fb705fa71db264dbd45326f\" tg-width=\"417\" tg-height=\"232\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：Sensor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWR.AU\">Tower</a></p>\n<p>海豚君认为，流媒体平台们对Facebook的影响，并不是主要表现在传统社交平台的MAU上，而是体现在对现有用户时长或者说用户粘性的侵蚀。</p>\n<p>就好比国内的微信，新的内容平台并不能够完全从微信上夺走这个用户，但可以瓜分用户使用微信的时长。</p>\n<p>在通信技术不断迭代下，互联网流量的传输速度飞跃提升，从而传达信息效率更高的视频内容替代了图文，成为用户在4、5G时代下的“新宠儿”。</p>\n<p>当然，这个趋势在通信基建设施更好的欧美发达地区表现得更明显。直接反映在Facebook上，就是带来用户时长或用户粘性的降低。如下，我们选取DAU/MAU代表用户粘性指标，可以看出欧美地区的用户粘性一直在缓慢下滑，尤其是TikTok短视频大放异彩的2020年，FB的用户吸引力在加速下滑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa71ea9c3957429e3ff3d30b234b4c6b\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"199\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>3、Facebook的出拳：Watch（中长视频）+Reels（短视频）</b></p>\n<p>Facebook的反击动作无疑是太慢了点。或许是广告的吸金能力让FB忽视了市场竞争的变化，又或许是小扎过于沉浸在抢占VR科技龙头的美好愿景中。</p>\n<p>面对长视频Netflix、中视频（YouTube）以及甚至是后起之秀的短视频TikTok对用户的吸引力转移，Facebook明显被动。</p>\n<p>直到近两年，Facebook才推出聚焦中长视频的Watch以及内嵌在Ins中的短视频版面Reels（此前独立短视频app Lasso失败退场）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4f48a9c3342d3839164d401ee76ce6d\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：Facebook Watch、Instagram Reels</p>\n<p>好在全球视频化的浪潮还未褪去，就连消费互联网发展一直走在前面的中国，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>、快手等短视频的流量增长还未见衰竭迹象，对其他平台的侵蚀也仍然在持续。</p>\n<p>因此Facebook仍然有机会追赶。在陆续推出Watch、Reels等视频平台或功能之后，全品类的用户粘性并没有如Facebook单一平台那样下滑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6725910c1ac97762d241c6a4015459\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>除此之外，未来潜在的用户粘性增长机会还包括流媒体平台们对于有线电视的替代渗透，也就是说将用户在有线电视上的时长部分转移至在线视频平台（包含短中长视频）。</p>\n<p>——根据Nielsen跟踪数据显示，截至2021年6月，美国人花在看视频的时间，64%仍然耗在有线电视上，而流媒体的时长占比为36%。</p>\n<p>尽管目前观看有线电视的占比仍高，但是观看流媒体的占比正迅速增加当中。报导指出，美国人在去年在流媒体上观看的时间，约占整体收看电视时间的20%。</p>\n<p>显然，国际互联网巨头还未切身感受到国内巨头们流量内卷的焦虑。</p>\n<p>因此，海豚君乐观假设：Facebook在逐渐补齐内容平台后，如果整个app家族仍然能够保持自己的市场地位，那么FB 家族app的用户增长又还有多少空间呢？</p>\n<p>首先来算一下整体市场的空间，IWS数据显示截至2020年6月，全球互联网渗透率近60%，不同的地区，渗透率水平如下：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e91e6d07990bd58916ee2c349b1ed7d1\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"195\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：IWS、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>如果假设5年后的2026年，全球互联网渗透率水平能够提升至75%（当下菲律宾、俄罗斯等国水平），那么在FB全生态护城河未受到较大影响下（市占率不变）。</p>\n<p>则FB家族app的整体用户规模有望达到85亿*75%/46.5亿*33亿=45亿人，相比2020年33亿的MAP，年复合增速为5.3%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3359c5e995a418e054b9c79470442268\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"174\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估算</p>\n<p>当然，对应四大地区，用户增长情况差异是比较大的。总体来讲，未来用户规模的拉动更多的是靠亚太及其他地区。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed940c4504faf9bffc97e11d26ceb3ca\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"197\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研预测</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e091cc3b3cb61cea9439df8c86f7a88d\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"202\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研预测</p>\n<h2>Facebook广告创收的秘密武器</h2>\n<p><b>1、广告主对Facebook的强依赖</b></p>\n<p>Facebook对自己流量价值挖掘，几乎只做好了广告这一种商业模式。从收入结构上看，广告占总营收的98%。</p>\n<p>宏观一点看，按照当前全球广告市场5500多亿美金的规模（2019，Statista），Facebook市占率超过12%，而单看线上广告市场，Facebook则吃掉了近20%的蛋糕（全广告市场15%），仅次于Google的40%（全广告市场的27%）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1175c5539b2af210bb152ad09021b67\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"177\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：eMarketer、Facebook财报、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>财报</p>\n<p>在《Facebook二季度财报点评》中，海豚君提及了这样一个观点：在坐拥全球最大流量地基上，长年深根于数字广告的Facebook，具备通过调节广告的量价关系，来达到一定程度上的平衡增长。</p>\n<p>而从资本市场的角度来思考，这个就是公司的Alpha能力，等于在高景气度周期内，Facebook如果愿意，可以不仅享受行业Beta利好，也可以通过维持广告投放量阀门，释放自己强于周期的Alpha能力。</p>\n<p>而拥有这个能力的基础，是它足以号令全球的用户数。</p>\n<p>这样的穿越周期的能力，从外部体现出来的，则是“单用户对应的广告价值（ARPU）”的高低。</p>\n<p>横向对比下，显然广告主更愿意给Facebook更高的“溢价”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9197c861667172ce024d00746244812\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：公司财报、公开信息整理、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p><b>2、推演一下Facebook广告的量价调节过程</b></p>\n<p>在上文中，我们已经对Facebook全生态的用户天花板做了一个简单测算。而在海豚君的假设中，长期下广告具体的量价关系由Facebook自己来把握，具体的调节则取决于经济景气度。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a7fced9aa5ac183e01970654838a5bd\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：wind、Facebook公司财报、海豚投研预测</p>\n<p>从上图可以看出，红色线代表的广告单价（Facebook制定基准+广告主竞价而成）的走势与GDP增速走势方向在经济出现明显的波动周期时，会存在相对一致性。与此同时，广告投放量的变化方向则完全相反。</p>\n<p>简单来说，就是当经济不好，广告主过穷日子的时候，FB放出多个广告位大甩卖，加大广告加载率，而经济周期好的时候，它就会收紧广告总量的闸门，用单价的提升来做高收入。</p>\n<p>背后是FB基于流量上的垄断优势保证高ROI和内容生态的平衡。因此无论是广告量还是价，他们的变化都会相对GDP预期先有所反映。</p>\n<p>海豚君结合IMF、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>等机构的预测，预期今年下半年开始，经济增速将逐渐环比放缓。2021-2022年可以说是一个经济相对复苏的周期，后年2023年则开始回到原先正轨（低增速稳态）。具体各地区未来1-2年的增速预测如下：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29db9a01b846453c6d75bef05a7d2ae2\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：IMF、欧盟、亚行、高盛等机构</p>\n<p>基于以上GDP预测以及历史广告量价与GDP增速之间的关系，海豚君对未来5年的广告量价做了简单预测（疫情假设2023年之后未出现较大的经济波动，整体广告收入按增速趋势进行线性测算）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/899e0fe3296c2de05039756b3f8817b9\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"186\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>a）对于单MAU广告的展示次数增量来源。海豚君认为，从当前FB与其它平台对比来看，Facebook 单一app以及Instagram app的广告加载率已相对偏高，若后续强行在Facebook和Instagram的主页面上再增加广告显得不那么现实。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ff8f84f110d196c9aa0e3578508522\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：海豚投研草根调研</p>\n<p>而对于FB来说，能够带来广告增量的，一个是旗下新app的广告变现，还有一个就是引入新的广告主和广告形式。而针对这两点，从去年开始，Facebook已经开始发力。</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>2020年5月，Facebook分别上线了Watch和Reels，虽然之前FB也有过短视频运营失败的经历（Lasso），但借助Ins本身的用户优势，Reels还是取得了不错的成绩。目前，FB正在鼓励广告主在Reels和Stories上投放广告。</p><p>扎克伯格在二季度业绩电话会中提及，当下每月有20亿用户观看了视频广告。预计未来无论是广告覆盖的用户范围还是单用户观看广告量，都会快速增加。</p></li>\n <li><p>2020年疫情期间，全球电商快速渗透。Facebook加大了在中小商户的广告投放激励，包括在Facebook内置提供电商模块Shops，增加Messenger点击广告等等。截至今年一季度，Shops每月活跃商户100万，用户产生2.5亿次浏览。超过300万个广告主采用了Messenger点击广告。</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>b）对于广告单价的未来可能变化。海豚君通过上文GDP与单价变动的关系，对不同地区分别做了未来5年广告单价变动的情景推演。</p>\n<p>总的来说，从不同地区来看，随着经济复苏反弹，未来亚太地区广告单价的提升空间可能相对更大。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/452ba3ffb04eed1f13192651cf585d7f\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估算</p>\n<p><b>3、海豚君隐含假设：Facebook广告地位继续提升</b></p>\n<p>在上文一一将影响广告收入的三个核心变量进行推演测算后，我们可以顺势得出Facebook的广告收入：</p>\n<p>广告收入增速=（1+广告单价增速）*（1+单用户广告展示次数增速）*（1+用户规模增速）-1</p>\n<p>那么在海豚君的假设下，Facebook未来5年的广告收入将以年复合17%的趋势增长：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a8eed4a02292a707b76883949020e0\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"231\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估测</p>\n<p>那么这样的广告收入，在整个市场上是什么水平？当2026年Facebook广告收入预期达到2200亿美金时，对应的市占率如何？</p>\n<p>从Statista统计的2020年数据来看，整体广告市场大约为5400亿，网络广告渗透率为62%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0fce7b3bffe687d619532e1aad643b\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"191\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Statista、公开信息、海豚投研整理</p>\n<p>2020年疫情以来，在居家隔离下，全球线上经济加速繁荣，虽然更多的是对线下经济的内部挤占，但疫情对于用户线上消费习惯养成的影响是不可逆的。其次网络广告中以实际投放效果进行收费，对于广告主，尤其是中小广告主来说，数字广告也是相对较优的选择。</p>\n<p>根据UnivDatos预测，对未来5年数字广告的市场规模将以7.7%的年复合增速增长，到2026年将达到6260亿元，海豚君对该增长趋势进行了平滑测算。</p>\n<p>在上文假设下，Facebook2026年广告收入将占整体网络广告规模的35%（类似于2020年字节在国内互联网广告的地位），较当前25%的水平上大幅提升，市占率的提升也隐含了海豚君对于Facebook给予了显著高于同行的核心竞争力预期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb8a6401562fabfb971423e021e24eb8\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"178\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：UnivDatos，海豚投研测算</p>\n<h2>除了广告，下一个Facebook可以想象的点在哪里？</h2>\n<p>海豚君开头提到，在移动互联网时代，老外这些巨头的动作明显落后于国内BATJ们的。但毕竟Facebook、Google这些巨头，收割的是全球市场，流量在手，变现早晚可以推进。</p>\n<p>因此，我们可以看到，在去年疫情期间，Facebook除了在广告业务上继续保持强势之外，也在趁着这难得的“天降机遇”，加快其它内容变现的布局。</p>\n<p>对比国内流量巨头们选择的变现路径，除了广告这个毛利又高、变现又快速直接的模式之外，电商也是巨头们纷纷觊觎的流量收割方式。</p>\n<p>早在2016年推出Marketplace（购物市场），到2019年上线Facebook Pay，和2020年上线Shops，WhatsApp上线购物车功能，以及将电商广告与Messenger功能打通、商户的WhatsApp官方号等，就可以看到Facebook在电商领域的野心不小。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049320844d306a16ecee7775411edcf7\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"136\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>图片来源：Facebook app、WhatsApp</p>\n<p>这有点类似于微信生态希望破局电商一样，通过社交引流，广告曝光，到商品交易、支付来完成一套电商闭环打法。</p>\n<p>而Facebook打电商比微信更轻松一点是，FB旗下同时拥有私欲流量和公域流量平台，各app之间更多的是基于不同的风格特色以及用户的使用习惯来区分。</p>\n<p>因此当Facebook在基于全球第一社交流量盘子的优势上去发展电商，对于中小商户来说，要想在大牌<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>的电商平台中更有效的透出自己的品牌，Facebook是不二之选。</p>\n<p>由于当前Facebook的用户消费的主打市场仍然是北美地区，在其它地区发展电商，或许会受到当地政策、竞争格局的影响。因此海豚君在对Facebook电商空间想象时，仅选取美国地区。</p>\n<p>——据eMarketer数据，2020年美国电商市场规模达到7700亿美金，占总体零售额的15%左右。分析师预测2025年美国电商占比将超过30%。海豚君假设Facebook能从中吃到10%的市场份额的话，按照当前Marketplace 5%的平台费率，则对应100亿美元的电商收入。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e895beab48e83f26500058484c5fbcb7\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：eMarketer、海豚投研估算</p>\n<h2>VR的预期再次被炒得有点高了！</h2>\n<p>今年以来，连续两个季度，小扎在业绩电话会上，对VR是大谈特谈。令小扎突然兴奋的原因，还是因为Quest2 自去年10月发布以来，销量表现显著优于过往Oculus发布的VR头显（Rift、Quest等）。</p>\n<p>但正如海豚君在二季度财报点评中强调，对于一季度炒的火热的元宇宙行情，我们仍然认为市场的预期可能过于高了。是否真正能看到市场被引爆和直接催化的拐点，可能还需要等待今年下半年的数据进行验证。</p>\n<p>长期下，海豚君和市场一样，认可VR/AR将是未来用户生活娱乐中一个重要的电子设备。</p>\n<p>根据IDC数据，海豚君预计2026年VR头显出货量有望达到3382万台，若Oculus市占率能够维持在60%以上（当前水平），那么2026年Oculus的出货量将在2000万台左右，按照300美金/台的售价，则预计当年能够带来55亿元的收入（剔除8%的消费税）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53eff6c7d18bf730ba6f40be5dfe70ad\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：IDC、海豚投研估算</p>\n<h2>逻辑总结与估值判断</h2>\n<p>海豚君总结一下上文分析的一些逻辑假设：</p>\n<p><b>1、主要看点和逻辑</b></p>\n<p>（1）影响Facebook短期业绩或价值的，主要是全球经济复苏的节奏。由于去年同期的高基数以及苹果IDFA隐私新政等影响，下半年业绩增速明显将放缓。短期股价的波动会受到全球尤其是美国宏观经济的数据影响。</p>\n<p>（2）长期下，讨论Facebook投资价值的一个基本前提是用户数和时长的盘子基本能够守住；在这个大流量盘子下，随着数字经济的渗透推广，Facebook能够对自己乃至行业的广告量价关系自主调节的能力，继续借助自身垄断优势，吃掉更多的广告市场份额。另一个则是基于社交大生态下，完善电商闭环后想象的电商规模成长空间。</p>\n<p>（3）对于VR设备、内容的“元宇宙”概念，海豚君相对保守，仅对硬件做了估值，未对VR/AR软件生态的溢价空间做测算。这一块需要长期跟踪Facebook的战略部署，持续做调整。</p>\n<p><b>2、估值假设</b></p>\n<p>（1）对于广告业务，海豚君基于IMF等国际机构对未来中短期宏观经济的走势判断，对Facebook广告量、价分别进行了推演假设（不代表真实走势），也就是说，未来6年广告收入的年复合增速在17%。2026年Facebook的广告收入占整体数字广告市场的35%，较当前25%有显著提升。</p>\n<p>（2）其他业务中，海豚君具体拆分成了Oculus硬件收入、电商收入、游戏及其他支付收入。</p>\n<p>a.Oculus继续保持市场垄断优势，硬件销售市占率维持在60%以上，2026年销量2000万台。</p>\n<p>b.电商收入只估算Facebook在美国地区的情况。按照10%的市占率，对2026年Facebook电商GMV达到2030亿美金，按照公司所称的5%的变现率转化为收入。</p>\n<p>c. 在全球VR渗透率加速提升中，预计Facebook的游戏等其他内容收入将扭转持续下滑的趋势，但具体是否叫卖，海豚君仍然存疑，因此参照当前主机、PC游戏增速趋势，给予未来6年年复合增速3.5%左右。</p>\n<p>（3）成本费用：</p>\n<p>短期内的成本费用以及资本开支，Facebook都做了指引，海豚君假设落在指引区间。</p>\n<p>长期下，由于Facebook作为全球龙头，主要业务的经营效率以及资本开支的投入，基本趋于稳定。</p>\n<p>唯一可能出现变量的就是Facebook押注VR市场，而持续加大的研发投入。因此在海豚君的估值模型中，主要研发费用做了较高的预期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e10bb9b6b61329f23ea402e52d1b284\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估算</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86ced0465d6d143cb9382521d15cc266\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"189\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估算</p>\n<p><b>3、估值结果</b></p>\n<p>基于以上投资逻辑和假设，海豚君按照WACC=9.53%，g=2.5%的折现，给予Facebook 1.16万亿估值，合409美元/股，较美东时间8月4日收盘356美元，存在15%的溢价空间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fab401178995a50d6447afc578346d46\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>另外从相对估值角度来说，目前股价对应2021年净利润PE仅25倍，属于历史估值中低部区间，在未有突发性风险下（主要为宏观风险），安全边际仍然较高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c60a487dad72e687f08c941a148a8b39\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：wind</p>\n<p>风险提示：此文出于传递更多信息之目的，文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。</p>","source":"lsy1607051923659","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook：全球头号网民收割机的“生意含金量”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook：全球头号网民收割机的“生意含金量”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-06 20:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zCicO-SINcFsZkaYQOYgcA><strong>海豚投研</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：海豚投研\n早期市场在研究腾讯的时候，通常会拿同为社交巨头的Facebook来做他山之石的对标。\n但进入移动互联网之后，Facebook的脚步明显慢了，拥有全球30亿的流量大盘，如今却只做成了广告生意，而腾讯则多点开花，短短几年就跃升中国泛娱乐乃至消费互联网行业的绝对龙头。\n不过，毕竟Facebook面向的是更加庞大的全球用户市场，所以依然能够支撑Facebook在近10年上市周期（2012...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zCicO-SINcFsZkaYQOYgcA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49b50080e294611229bef63423ccd53","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zCicO-SINcFsZkaYQOYgcA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2157739460","content_text":"作者：海豚投研\n早期市场在研究腾讯的时候，通常会拿同为社交巨头的Facebook来做他山之石的对标。\n但进入移动互联网之后，Facebook的脚步明显慢了，拥有全球30亿的流量大盘，如今却只做成了广告生意，而腾讯则多点开花，短短几年就跃升中国泛娱乐乃至消费互联网行业的绝对龙头。\n不过，毕竟Facebook面向的是更加庞大的全球用户市场，所以依然能够支撑Facebook在近10年上市周期（2012至今）里面，轻松跑赢纳指。\n\n上周Facebook 2021年二季度财报发布，虽然从整体业绩上看，超出市场预期。但对于用户增长的表现，市场明显还是不太满意的。\n尤其是在MAU增长数百万的情况下，欧美地区的DAU竟然不及去年同期， DAU的下滑实际上在一定程度上反应了走出疫情后Facebook在欧美地区用户粘性的降低。这对于平台广告投放的吸引力是显然不太友好的。\n除此之外，管理层对于下半年的增长指引也给的非常保守。因此财报发布后的股价表现，说明市场并没有对FB此次业绩给予奖励。\n前有苹果ATT政策影响在即，后有用户高基数增长压力。对于当下的Facebook是否还具备多少价值空间，我们仍然需要定量分析。因此本文将重点围绕Facebook价值的未来增长机遇以及风险，来对Facebook作出估值判断。\nFacebook的流量侵蚀危机？\n海豚君从市场对此次FB财报最具争议的用户增长谈起。\n首先，当下的Facebook是妥妥的全球社交龙头。在近20年的成长过程中，以Facebook平台为核心，通过自设、收购等方式，围绕社交领域逐渐延伸自己的能力圈。\n\n图片来源：Facebook官网\n截至今年二季度，Facebook整个生态（包含Facebook自身平台，生态其他平台Messenger、Instagram、WhatsApp以及新发布的板块，如Reels、Shops等等）的全球用户规模已经达到35亿，其中Facebook主体平台全球近30亿人，是当之无愧的流量巨无霸。\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研整理\n但对于未来的用户增长空间，Facebook还需要发挥整个生态的力量。\n1、Facebook自身平台用户增长已几近“稳态”\n除了欧美增长基本停滞外，在无其他重大偶发性因素情况下，Facebook在亚太及其他地区预计也只能保持个位数增长。\n也就是说，其实在一定程度上，在经历了2020年疫情加速渗透期之后，FB主体平台的用户增长基本达到了一个相对稳态，未来的用户增量更多的是靠互联网渗透率的自然提高带来。\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研整理\n这样的数据虽然单纯看上去没有多少吸引力，但若是放在同行堆里横向对比下，其实已经算是优越。\n\n数据来源：Facebook、Twitter、Snapchat财报\n2、从图文到流媒体，抢夺的更多的是用户时长\n当然如果剔除疫情因素，几大社交平台的流量增速都存在趋势性放缓，甚至增长并不轻松。全球互联网渗透率在2018年也似乎进入一个小瓶颈。\n\n数据来源：IWS、海豚投研整理\n但与此同时，YouTube、TikTok等流媒体平台的腾飞景象却又大不相同。\n\n图片来源：Sensor Tower\n海豚君认为，流媒体平台们对Facebook的影响，并不是主要表现在传统社交平台的MAU上，而是体现在对现有用户时长或者说用户粘性的侵蚀。\n就好比国内的微信，新的内容平台并不能够完全从微信上夺走这个用户，但可以瓜分用户使用微信的时长。\n在通信技术不断迭代下，互联网流量的传输速度飞跃提升，从而传达信息效率更高的视频内容替代了图文，成为用户在4、5G时代下的“新宠儿”。\n当然，这个趋势在通信基建设施更好的欧美发达地区表现得更明显。直接反映在Facebook上，就是带来用户时长或用户粘性的降低。如下，我们选取DAU/MAU代表用户粘性指标，可以看出欧美地区的用户粘性一直在缓慢下滑，尤其是TikTok短视频大放异彩的2020年，FB的用户吸引力在加速下滑。\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研整理\n3、Facebook的出拳：Watch（中长视频）+Reels（短视频）\nFacebook的反击动作无疑是太慢了点。或许是广告的吸金能力让FB忽视了市场竞争的变化，又或许是小扎过于沉浸在抢占VR科技龙头的美好愿景中。\n面对长视频Netflix、中视频（YouTube）以及甚至是后起之秀的短视频TikTok对用户的吸引力转移，Facebook明显被动。\n直到近两年，Facebook才推出聚焦中长视频的Watch以及内嵌在Ins中的短视频版面Reels（此前独立短视频app Lasso失败退场）。\n\n图片来源：Facebook Watch、Instagram Reels\n好在全球视频化的浪潮还未褪去，就连消费互联网发展一直走在前面的中国，抖音、快手等短视频的流量增长还未见衰竭迹象，对其他平台的侵蚀也仍然在持续。\n因此Facebook仍然有机会追赶。在陆续推出Watch、Reels等视频平台或功能之后，全品类的用户粘性并没有如Facebook单一平台那样下滑。\n\n数据来源：Facebook、海豚投研整理\n除此之外，未来潜在的用户粘性增长机会还包括流媒体平台们对于有线电视的替代渗透，也就是说将用户在有线电视上的时长部分转移至在线视频平台（包含短中长视频）。\n——根据Nielsen跟踪数据显示，截至2021年6月，美国人花在看视频的时间，64%仍然耗在有线电视上，而流媒体的时长占比为36%。\n尽管目前观看有线电视的占比仍高，但是观看流媒体的占比正迅速增加当中。报导指出，美国人在去年在流媒体上观看的时间，约占整体收看电视时间的20%。\n显然，国际互联网巨头还未切身感受到国内巨头们流量内卷的焦虑。\n因此，海豚君乐观假设：Facebook在逐渐补齐内容平台后，如果整个app家族仍然能够保持自己的市场地位，那么FB 家族app的用户增长又还有多少空间呢？\n首先来算一下整体市场的空间，IWS数据显示截至2020年6月，全球互联网渗透率近60%，不同的地区，渗透率水平如下：\n\n数据来源：IWS、海豚投研整理\n如果假设5年后的2026年，全球互联网渗透率水平能够提升至75%（当下菲律宾、俄罗斯等国水平），那么在FB全生态护城河未受到较大影响下（市占率不变）。\n则FB家族app的整体用户规模有望达到85亿*75%/46.5亿*33亿=45亿人，相比2020年33亿的MAP，年复合增速为5.3%。\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估算\n当然，对应四大地区，用户增长情况差异是比较大的。总体来讲，未来用户规模的拉动更多的是靠亚太及其他地区。\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研预测\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研预测\nFacebook广告创收的秘密武器\n1、广告主对Facebook的强依赖\nFacebook对自己流量价值挖掘，几乎只做好了广告这一种商业模式。从收入结构上看，广告占总营收的98%。\n宏观一点看，按照当前全球广告市场5500多亿美金的规模（2019，Statista），Facebook市占率超过12%，而单看线上广告市场，Facebook则吃掉了近20%的蛋糕（全广告市场15%），仅次于Google的40%（全广告市场的27%）。\n\n数据来源：eMarketer、Facebook财报、谷歌财报\n在《Facebook二季度财报点评》中，海豚君提及了这样一个观点：在坐拥全球最大流量地基上，长年深根于数字广告的Facebook，具备通过调节广告的量价关系，来达到一定程度上的平衡增长。\n而从资本市场的角度来思考，这个就是公司的Alpha能力，等于在高景气度周期内，Facebook如果愿意，可以不仅享受行业Beta利好，也可以通过维持广告投放量阀门，释放自己强于周期的Alpha能力。\n而拥有这个能力的基础，是它足以号令全球的用户数。\n这样的穿越周期的能力，从外部体现出来的，则是“单用户对应的广告价值（ARPU）”的高低。\n横向对比下，显然广告主更愿意给Facebook更高的“溢价”。\n\n数据来源：公司财报、公开信息整理、海豚投研整理\n2、推演一下Facebook广告的量价调节过程\n在上文中，我们已经对Facebook全生态的用户天花板做了一个简单测算。而在海豚君的假设中，长期下广告具体的量价关系由Facebook自己来把握，具体的调节则取决于经济景气度。\n\n数据来源：wind、Facebook公司财报、海豚投研预测\n从上图可以看出，红色线代表的广告单价（Facebook制定基准+广告主竞价而成）的走势与GDP增速走势方向在经济出现明显的波动周期时，会存在相对一致性。与此同时，广告投放量的变化方向则完全相反。\n简单来说，就是当经济不好，广告主过穷日子的时候，FB放出多个广告位大甩卖，加大广告加载率，而经济周期好的时候，它就会收紧广告总量的闸门，用单价的提升来做高收入。\n背后是FB基于流量上的垄断优势保证高ROI和内容生态的平衡。因此无论是广告量还是价，他们的变化都会相对GDP预期先有所反映。\n海豚君结合IMF、高盛等机构的预测，预期今年下半年开始，经济增速将逐渐环比放缓。2021-2022年可以说是一个经济相对复苏的周期，后年2023年则开始回到原先正轨（低增速稳态）。具体各地区未来1-2年的增速预测如下：\n\n数据来源：IMF、欧盟、亚行、高盛等机构\n基于以上GDP预测以及历史广告量价与GDP增速之间的关系，海豚君对未来5年的广告量价做了简单预测（疫情假设2023年之后未出现较大的经济波动，整体广告收入按增速趋势进行线性测算）\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研整理\na）对于单MAU广告的展示次数增量来源。海豚君认为，从当前FB与其它平台对比来看，Facebook 单一app以及Instagram app的广告加载率已相对偏高，若后续强行在Facebook和Instagram的主页面上再增加广告显得不那么现实。\n\n数据来源：海豚投研草根调研\n而对于FB来说，能够带来广告增量的，一个是旗下新app的广告变现，还有一个就是引入新的广告主和广告形式。而针对这两点，从去年开始，Facebook已经开始发力。\n\n2020年5月，Facebook分别上线了Watch和Reels，虽然之前FB也有过短视频运营失败的经历（Lasso），但借助Ins本身的用户优势，Reels还是取得了不错的成绩。目前，FB正在鼓励广告主在Reels和Stories上投放广告。扎克伯格在二季度业绩电话会中提及，当下每月有20亿用户观看了视频广告。预计未来无论是广告覆盖的用户范围还是单用户观看广告量，都会快速增加。\n2020年疫情期间，全球电商快速渗透。Facebook加大了在中小商户的广告投放激励，包括在Facebook内置提供电商模块Shops，增加Messenger点击广告等等。截至今年一季度，Shops每月活跃商户100万，用户产生2.5亿次浏览。超过300万个广告主采用了Messenger点击广告。\n\nb）对于广告单价的未来可能变化。海豚君通过上文GDP与单价变动的关系，对不同地区分别做了未来5年广告单价变动的情景推演。\n总的来说，从不同地区来看，随着经济复苏反弹，未来亚太地区广告单价的提升空间可能相对更大。\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估算\n3、海豚君隐含假设：Facebook广告地位继续提升\n在上文一一将影响广告收入的三个核心变量进行推演测算后，我们可以顺势得出Facebook的广告收入：\n广告收入增速=（1+广告单价增速）*（1+单用户广告展示次数增速）*（1+用户规模增速）-1\n那么在海豚君的假设下，Facebook未来5年的广告收入将以年复合17%的趋势增长：\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估测\n那么这样的广告收入，在整个市场上是什么水平？当2026年Facebook广告收入预期达到2200亿美金时，对应的市占率如何？\n从Statista统计的2020年数据来看，整体广告市场大约为5400亿，网络广告渗透率为62%。\n\n数据来源：Statista、公开信息、海豚投研整理\n2020年疫情以来，在居家隔离下，全球线上经济加速繁荣，虽然更多的是对线下经济的内部挤占，但疫情对于用户线上消费习惯养成的影响是不可逆的。其次网络广告中以实际投放效果进行收费，对于广告主，尤其是中小广告主来说，数字广告也是相对较优的选择。\n根据UnivDatos预测，对未来5年数字广告的市场规模将以7.7%的年复合增速增长，到2026年将达到6260亿元，海豚君对该增长趋势进行了平滑测算。\n在上文假设下，Facebook2026年广告收入将占整体网络广告规模的35%（类似于2020年字节在国内互联网广告的地位），较当前25%的水平上大幅提升，市占率的提升也隐含了海豚君对于Facebook给予了显著高于同行的核心竞争力预期。\n\n数据来源：UnivDatos，海豚投研测算\n除了广告，下一个Facebook可以想象的点在哪里？\n海豚君开头提到，在移动互联网时代，老外这些巨头的动作明显落后于国内BATJ们的。但毕竟Facebook、Google这些巨头，收割的是全球市场，流量在手，变现早晚可以推进。\n因此，我们可以看到，在去年疫情期间，Facebook除了在广告业务上继续保持强势之外，也在趁着这难得的“天降机遇”，加快其它内容变现的布局。\n对比国内流量巨头们选择的变现路径，除了广告这个毛利又高、变现又快速直接的模式之外，电商也是巨头们纷纷觊觎的流量收割方式。\n早在2016年推出Marketplace（购物市场），到2019年上线Facebook Pay，和2020年上线Shops，WhatsApp上线购物车功能，以及将电商广告与Messenger功能打通、商户的WhatsApp官方号等，就可以看到Facebook在电商领域的野心不小。\n\n图片来源：Facebook app、WhatsApp\n这有点类似于微信生态希望破局电商一样，通过社交引流，广告曝光，到商品交易、支付来完成一套电商闭环打法。\n而Facebook打电商比微信更轻松一点是，FB旗下同时拥有私欲流量和公域流量平台，各app之间更多的是基于不同的风格特色以及用户的使用习惯来区分。\n因此当Facebook在基于全球第一社交流量盘子的优势上去发展电商，对于中小商户来说，要想在大牌云集的电商平台中更有效的透出自己的品牌，Facebook是不二之选。\n由于当前Facebook的用户消费的主打市场仍然是北美地区，在其它地区发展电商，或许会受到当地政策、竞争格局的影响。因此海豚君在对Facebook电商空间想象时，仅选取美国地区。\n——据eMarketer数据，2020年美国电商市场规模达到7700亿美金，占总体零售额的15%左右。分析师预测2025年美国电商占比将超过30%。海豚君假设Facebook能从中吃到10%的市场份额的话，按照当前Marketplace 5%的平台费率，则对应100亿美元的电商收入。\n\n数据来源：eMarketer、海豚投研估算\nVR的预期再次被炒得有点高了！\n今年以来，连续两个季度，小扎在业绩电话会上，对VR是大谈特谈。令小扎突然兴奋的原因，还是因为Quest2 自去年10月发布以来，销量表现显著优于过往Oculus发布的VR头显（Rift、Quest等）。\n但正如海豚君在二季度财报点评中强调，对于一季度炒的火热的元宇宙行情，我们仍然认为市场的预期可能过于高了。是否真正能看到市场被引爆和直接催化的拐点，可能还需要等待今年下半年的数据进行验证。\n长期下，海豚君和市场一样，认可VR/AR将是未来用户生活娱乐中一个重要的电子设备。\n根据IDC数据，海豚君预计2026年VR头显出货量有望达到3382万台，若Oculus市占率能够维持在60%以上（当前水平），那么2026年Oculus的出货量将在2000万台左右，按照300美金/台的售价，则预计当年能够带来55亿元的收入（剔除8%的消费税）。\n\n数据来源：IDC、海豚投研估算\n逻辑总结与估值判断\n海豚君总结一下上文分析的一些逻辑假设：\n1、主要看点和逻辑\n（1）影响Facebook短期业绩或价值的，主要是全球经济复苏的节奏。由于去年同期的高基数以及苹果IDFA隐私新政等影响，下半年业绩增速明显将放缓。短期股价的波动会受到全球尤其是美国宏观经济的数据影响。\n（2）长期下，讨论Facebook投资价值的一个基本前提是用户数和时长的盘子基本能够守住；在这个大流量盘子下，随着数字经济的渗透推广，Facebook能够对自己乃至行业的广告量价关系自主调节的能力，继续借助自身垄断优势，吃掉更多的广告市场份额。另一个则是基于社交大生态下，完善电商闭环后想象的电商规模成长空间。\n（3）对于VR设备、内容的“元宇宙”概念，海豚君相对保守，仅对硬件做了估值，未对VR/AR软件生态的溢价空间做测算。这一块需要长期跟踪Facebook的战略部署，持续做调整。\n2、估值假设\n（1）对于广告业务，海豚君基于IMF等国际机构对未来中短期宏观经济的走势判断，对Facebook广告量、价分别进行了推演假设（不代表真实走势），也就是说，未来6年广告收入的年复合增速在17%。2026年Facebook的广告收入占整体数字广告市场的35%，较当前25%有显著提升。\n（2）其他业务中，海豚君具体拆分成了Oculus硬件收入、电商收入、游戏及其他支付收入。\na.Oculus继续保持市场垄断优势，硬件销售市占率维持在60%以上，2026年销量2000万台。\nb.电商收入只估算Facebook在美国地区的情况。按照10%的市占率，对2026年Facebook电商GMV达到2030亿美金，按照公司所称的5%的变现率转化为收入。\nc. 在全球VR渗透率加速提升中，预计Facebook的游戏等其他内容收入将扭转持续下滑的趋势，但具体是否叫卖，海豚君仍然存疑，因此参照当前主机、PC游戏增速趋势，给予未来6年年复合增速3.5%左右。\n（3）成本费用：\n短期内的成本费用以及资本开支，Facebook都做了指引，海豚君假设落在指引区间。\n长期下，由于Facebook作为全球龙头，主要业务的经营效率以及资本开支的投入，基本趋于稳定。\n唯一可能出现变量的就是Facebook押注VR市场，而持续加大的研发投入。因此在海豚君的估值模型中，主要研发费用做了较高的预期。\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估算\n\n数据来源：Facebook财报、海豚投研估算\n3、估值结果\n基于以上投资逻辑和假设，海豚君按照WACC=9.53%，g=2.5%的折现，给予Facebook 1.16万亿估值，合409美元/股，较美东时间8月4日收盘356美元，存在15%的溢价空间。\n\n另外从相对估值角度来说，目前股价对应2021年净利润PE仅25倍，属于历史估值中低部区间，在未有突发性风险下（主要为宏观风险），安全边际仍然较高。\n\n数据来源：wind\n风险提示：此文出于传递更多信息之目的，文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801801703,"gmtCreate":1627494196502,"gmtModify":1703491125095,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like my comment","listText":"like my comment","text":"like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801801703","repostId":"2154494900","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154494900","pubTimestamp":1627449482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2154494900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-28 13:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"苹果、微软、谷歌财报创纪录，但投资者还有些担忧","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154494900","media":"国际金融报","summary":"当地时间7月27日，美股盘后美国三大科技巨头苹果、微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet纷纷公布财报。微软销售额再创新高，苹果iPhone销售同比涨幅近50%，谷歌季度营收创14年多来最大增幅。\n财报发布前","content":"<div>\n<p>当地时间7月27日，美股盘后美国三大科技巨头苹果、微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet纷纷公布财报。微软销售额再创新高，苹果iPhone销售同比涨幅近50%，谷歌季度营收创14年多来最大增幅。\n财报发布前，苹果收跌1.49%，微软跌0.87%，谷歌母公司Alphabet跌2.04%。美股盘后，Alphabet涨约3%，苹果跌约1.2%，微软涨0.8%。\n彭博社指出，市场反应冷淡是因为在某种程度上，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TgrLzwd07mAo99oUGd2Zcg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"gjjrb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n苹果、微软、谷歌财报创纪录，但投资者还有些担忧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 13:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TgrLzwd07mAo99oUGd2Zcg><strong>国际金融报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>当地时间7月27日，美股盘后美国三大科技巨头苹果、微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet纷纷公布财报。微软销售额再创新高，苹果iPhone销售同比涨幅近50%，谷歌季度营收创14年多来最大增幅。\n财报发布前，苹果收跌1.49%，微软跌0.87%，谷歌母公司Alphabet跌2.04%。美股盘后，Alphabet涨约3%，苹果跌约1.2%，微软涨0.8%。\n彭博社指出，市场反应冷淡是因为在某种程度上，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TgrLzwd07mAo99oUGd2Zcg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d9ba180511694b59c6a2174adeb79e6","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","GOOG":"谷歌"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/TgrLzwd07mAo99oUGd2Zcg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154494900","content_text":"当地时间7月27日，美股盘后美国三大科技巨头苹果、微软和谷歌母公司Alphabet纷纷公布财报。微软销售额再创新高，苹果iPhone销售同比涨幅近50%，谷歌季度营收创14年多来最大增幅。\n财报发布前，苹果收跌1.49%，微软跌0.87%，谷歌母公司Alphabet跌2.04%。美股盘后，Alphabet涨约3%，苹果跌约1.2%，微软涨0.8%。\n彭博社指出，市场反应冷淡是因为在某种程度上，投资者怀疑这些公司能否在未来几个季度继续保持两位数的增长。\n微软：销售额创新高\n微软新公布的第四财季销售额为462亿美元，同比增长约21%，创历史新高。其中作为微软增长支柱的云计算业务Azure同比增长51%，超过了前两个财季的50%增速。Xbox硬件销售收入同比大涨172%，微软企业协作工具Team月活用户接近2.5亿。\n在截至6月30日的财季，该公司实现利润165亿美元，同比增长47%，超出了华尔街的预期。分析师平均预计的销售额为441亿美元，利润为146亿美元。\n过去一年，微软的股价上涨了约40%，年初至今，股价累计涨幅约达29%，同期标普500指数涨幅为17%。微软估值目前已超过2万亿美元，仅次于苹果公司。\n苹果：iPhone销售同比激增\n苹果财报显示，该公司2021年第三财季总营收814亿美元，同比增幅为36%，创公司史上同期营收新高；每股收益为1.30美元，超出了分析师预期的1.01美元；iPhone销售额同比增幅近50%；大中华区收入达147.6亿美元，同比增幅58%。\n另外，苹果连续三个季度在所有产品类别的收入上均实现了双位数百分比的同比涨幅。\n苹果CEO蒂姆·库克表示：“利好财报显示美国和全球各地的消费者乐观情绪正在回升。”\n谷歌广告收入飙升\n谷歌母公司Alphabet公布第二财季营收为618.8亿美元，较上年同期增长62%。\n该公司公布的广告销售额为504.4亿美元，较去年同期增长了69%，这得益于美国市场的火爆，美国的广告支出有望成为战后增长最快的时期。YouTube的广告业务收入为70亿美元，较上年同期增长84%。云业务收入达46.3亿美元，好于预期的44亿美元，较去年同期涨幅达53.8%。\n据研究公司Gartner测算，谷歌在云计算业务市场份额仅为6%，大幅落后于领跑的亚马逊和微软。上述两家企业在云计算业务的市场份额分别达到41%和20%。\n投资者的担忧\n据彭博社报道，今年投资者已经向最大科技公司的股票投入了数千亿美元。截至周二收盘，今年苹果股价已上涨11%，而Alphabet股价已上涨51%，微软股价已上涨29%。\n“世界上最大的科技公司以惊人的速度变得更大。随着世界经济从疫情低点反弹，苹果和微软的市值都超过了2万亿美元。所有公司都看好其前景，但由于过去一年的势头正出现减弱的迹象，投资者的乐观情绪有所下降。”\n分析指出，苹果并未给出当前季度业绩指引，这是疫情以来连续第六个季度没有发布指引，突显了疫情带来的不确定性。\n苹果公司预计下一财季营收仍是“非常强劲的两位数百分比同比增速”，但可能会慢于第三财季。苹果还警告称，第四财季的服务收入同比增速恐将放缓，苹果的硬件将受到一些芯片短缺的限制。\nAlphabet首席财务官Ruth Porat表示，消费者支出肯定有所改善，但随着市场重新开放，现在预测长期趋势还为时过早，尤其是考虑到最近全球新冠肺炎病例增加。\n27日，美国CDC前主任弗里登发出严峻警告，“我们正在步入一个艰难时期。如果疫情发展轨迹与英国相似，很可能每天会看到多达20万例的新增病例。”\n此外，美众议院司法委员会于6月底下旬审议了多项针对美科技巨头的反垄断法案，分析认为，美国大型科技巨头正面临来自监管机构和各种诉讼日益加大的压力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171186806,"gmtCreate":1626714193405,"gmtModify":1703763915538,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment my post","listText":"like and comment my post","text":"like and comment my post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171186806","repostId":"1159080706","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159080706","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626709038,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159080706?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-19 23:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】收复今日失地，蔚小理止跌回升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159080706","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月19日，理想汽车、蔚来、小鹏汽车止跌回升，收复今日失地。\n小鹏汽车此前公布旗下搭载量产车规级激光雷达的小鹏P5的预售价格，并宣布开启预售，小鹏P5新车预售价格16-23万元，共推出6个不同续航配置","content":"<p>7月19日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>止跌回升，收复今日失地。</p>\n<p>小鹏汽车此前公布旗下搭载量产车规级激光雷达的小鹏P5的预售价格，并宣布开启预售，小鹏P5新车预售价格16-23万元，共推出6个不同续航配置的版本可供选择，NEDC工况下最高续航达到600公里。</p>\n<p>同时，小鹏汽车发布公告，于2021年7月19日因部分行使超额配股权而发行1208.33万股，每股发行价为165港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72a193fe4e67d7c18a4cbdff58c6864\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】收复今日失地，蔚小理止跌回升</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】收复今日失地，蔚小理止跌回升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-19 23:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月19日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>止跌回升，收复今日失地。</p>\n<p>小鹏汽车此前公布旗下搭载量产车规级激光雷达的小鹏P5的预售价格，并宣布开启预售，小鹏P5新车预售价格16-23万元，共推出6个不同续航配置的版本可供选择，NEDC工况下最高续航达到600公里。</p>\n<p>同时，小鹏汽车发布公告，于2021年7月19日因部分行使超额配股权而发行1208.33万股，每股发行价为165港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f72a193fe4e67d7c18a4cbdff58c6864\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f36b37eb8e9efe8641c7be55a7da26d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","09868":"小鹏汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159080706","content_text":"7月19日，理想汽车、蔚来、小鹏汽车止跌回升，收复今日失地。\n小鹏汽车此前公布旗下搭载量产车规级激光雷达的小鹏P5的预售价格，并宣布开启预售，小鹏P5新车预售价格16-23万元，共推出6个不同续航配置的版本可供选择，NEDC工况下最高续航达到600公里。\n同时，小鹏汽车发布公告，于2021年7月19日因部分行使超额配股权而发行1208.33万股，每股发行价为165港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147684084,"gmtCreate":1626356350348,"gmtModify":1703758542642,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like my comment","listText":"please like my comment","text":"please like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147684084","repostId":"2151210135","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151210135","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"香港财华社明星专栏，20年专注港股，金融大咖汇聚，分析投资价值，做一个有态度、有深度、有意思的原创财经新媒体！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"港股解码","id":"4","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59365c1175604684a63ab49059431645"},"pubTimestamp":1626355654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151210135?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 21:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"搜狗私有化稳了？搜狐笑了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151210135","media":"港股解码","summary":"上市前夕，搜狐、腾讯和搜狗签订了投票权协议，搜狐将继续有权任命董事会的大部分席位，搜狐和腾讯作为合体有权决定所有重大事情。2020年下半年至今，全球对互联网企业的监管增强，美国上市的中概股亦归心似箭，这次监管放行，让搜狗私有化取得进展。截至2021年2月26日，搜狐于搜狗的持股比例为33.8%，投票权占了44%。搜狗董事会合共十席，管理层占了四席、独立董事占了三席、腾讯占了一席、搜狐占了两席。","content":"<p>自2017年11月在纽交所上市以来，呈高开低走的搜索引擎<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOGO\">搜狗</a></b>，私有化之路又近了一步。</p>\n<p>近日，市场监督管理总局对于<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a></b>收购搜狗公司股权的经营者集中案件给予无条件批准，这让腾讯全面收购搜狗向前迈了一步。</p>\n<p>在这之前不久，市场监督管理总局针对腾讯于2013年收购搜狗36.5%权益没有在规定期限内提出陈述，而处以50万元的行政罚款。</p>\n<p>加上最近有关当局对互联网企业的反垄断监管增强，此举多少有点出乎意料。</p>\n<p>受有关消息带动，搜狗隔夜美股股价上涨2.3%，收报8.90美元，接近腾讯提出的私有化价格9美元水平，市值为34.33亿美元；搜狗另一大股东<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOHU\">搜狐</a></b>股价大涨27.58%，收报23.73美元，市值9.33亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abda914e0e63eaee987e3e707f07185\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>搜狗背后的资本局</b></p>\n<p>从搜狗的发家史可以看出，搜狐与其渊源颇深</p>\n<p>Sogou Inc.于2005年12月在开曼群岛成立。</p>\n<p>在2006年2月之前，该公司的搜索和相关业务由搜狐持有或控制的多个实体运营。2006年2月，搜狐对其搜索和相关业务进行了重组，将大部分业务转移到搜狗。</p>\n<p>2010年10月，搜狐进行了新一轮重组，以筹备搜狗的上市前A轮优先股发行，并将与搜索相关的业务和员工转移到搜狗。</p>\n<p>搜狗分别向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、阿里巴巴和马云参与发起的云锋基金旗下的China Web，以及搜狐董事长张朝阳旗下的Photon，发行并出售A轮优先股。随后，搜狐于2012年6月向阿里巴巴回购了后者所持有的A轮优先股。</p>\n<p>2013年9月，腾讯以现金方式向搜狗投资4.48亿美元，并将其持有的搜索相关业务“搜搜”和其他资产转移到搜狗。作为交换，搜狗向腾讯发行了B轮优先股以及B类普通股。这宗交易正是上述市场监督管理总局处以50万元行政罚款的由头（与私有化交易无关）。</p>\n<p>2013年12月，腾讯从多名股东手中（主要为搜狗员工）收购了搜狗的A类普通股。</p>\n<p>2014年3月，搜狗从China Web手中回购了之前所发行的A轮优先股。到此，阿里系基本退出搜狗的投资。</p>\n<p>2015年9月，搜狗从搜狐和Photon手中回购A轮优先股。</p>\n<p>2017年11月13日，搜狗在纽交所上市。上市前夕，搜狐、腾讯和搜狗签订了投票权协议，搜狐将继续有权任命董事会的大部分席位，搜狐和腾讯作为合体有权决定所有重大事情。</p>\n<p>2020年9月29日，搜狗与腾讯订立合并协议，腾讯将以每股/每份ADS 9美元的现金代价，收购未持有的搜狗全部已发行股份，较2020年7月24日私有化公告发布前最后交易日的收市价溢价56.5%，较私有化公告前30个交易日的均价溢价83%。</p>\n<p>2020年下半年至今，全球对互联网企业的监管增强，美国上市的中概股亦归心似箭，这次监管放行，让搜狗私有化取得进展。</p>\n<p><b>搜狐笑了</b></p>\n<p>从搜狗的发家史可以看出，搜狐与其渊源颇深，搜狗本身就从搜狐的搜索业务部门分拆而来，首席执行官王小川是搜狐前首席技术官，搜狐为搜狗最初的资金供应方。</p>\n<p>截至2021年2月26日，搜狐于搜狗的持股比例为33.8%，投票权占了44%。除此以外，搜狐董事长张朝阳还持有搜狗的6.4%权益和0.9%投票权。搜狗董事会合共十席，管理层占了四席、独立董事占了三席、腾讯占了一席、搜狐占了两席。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c9b5766a05493d8f378d364be2effe\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从搜狗融资、上市到腾讯私有化，搜狐所赚取的收益应已不少，这包括2013年9月腾讯入股时搜狗向搜狐和Photon分别派发的1.612亿美元和4300万美元特别股息；2015年9月搜狗分别以7880万美元和2100万美元从搜狐和Photon手中回购A轮优先股；再到如今腾讯私有化，搜狐预计可从有关交易合共取得11.8亿美元现金，是搜狐当前市值的1.26倍。</p>\n<p>无怪乎在市场监督管理总局开绿灯后，搜狐的股价大涨。</p>\n<p>从搜狐的搜索部门，摇身一变成为腾讯自己人，搜狗这盘生意到底如何？为何搜狐唾弃、而腾讯入股之后还要全面控股如此执着？</p>\n<p>搜狗如何赚钱？</p>\n<p>搜狗的收入主要来自搜索和相关广告服务，亦即允许广告商在其搜索结果页面、其他互联网功能等展示促销链接，并获取相应的收入。另外，互联网增值服务也贡献收入，主要为第三方开发的游戏，以及提供其他产品和服务，包括智能硬件产品和线上贷款及小额贷款服务。</p>\n<p>见下图，搜索和搜索相关广告贡献了搜狗至少九成收入，2020年这一比例为90.57%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7965443816b54813983603efd6414c96\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>搜索和搜索相关广告服务中，尤以基于竞价的按点击收费（pay-for-click）服务占主导，2018年至2020年期间，该收入占搜索和搜索相关广告服务收入的比重分别为83.8%、88.1%和86.8%。</p>\n<p>搜索和搜索相关广告服务主要通过广告代理网络招徕广告主，引流成本是搜狗最大的支出，2020年，该成本占收入的比重高达62.56%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e713d291ec47129e49b8b059cf146a\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>正因如此，搜狗的利润表现并没有跟随其收入的扩大而增加，反而不断缩小，见下图。即使不考虑受疫情和私有化不确定性影响的2020年业绩，其收入于2019年到达顶峰，但利润却开始下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db0df68b41f452c827391847233fbe4\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>为何搜狐不留恋？</b></p>\n<p>搜狗8亿美元的搜索及关联广告收入规模，实在无法与头部搜索巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>（09888.HK，BIDU.US）逾100亿美元的线上营销服务收入规模相提并论。对于搜狐来说，搜狗的业务显得有点鸡肋。</p>\n<p>首先，搜狗所面对的竞争十分激烈。</p>\n<p>在国内搜索引擎和搜索相关服务市场主要面对的竞争来自百度和阿里巴巴(09988.HK)的神马搜索；在网站和手机应用吸纳用户和广告主方面，竞争对手包括旅游服务和信息平台携程和去哪儿，团购平台美团(03690.H)，线上分类广告平台58.com等。此外，该公司不仅要与互联网企业竞争广告主，还面对其他广告媒体的竞争，包括纸媒、广告牌和巴士广告、电视等。</p>\n<p>见下图，虽然搜狗能够保持广告主数目的增长，但每名客户价值（ARPA）持续下降，或反映其为了确保客户数目，定价力备受考验。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca64aef8885a48078ef8486cab5ec521\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>搜狗每一单位引流成本所产生的广告收入呈下降趋势，折射出竞争的激烈，也显示其尚未能通过技术的升级提升效益。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfad57f08194ab78d01c657d818e5e5\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>搜狐目前聚焦于品牌广告、视频迭代以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYOU\">畅游</a>的在线游戏业务。2020年，搜狗的毛利率只有20.61%，而搜狐的品牌广告毛利率维持在27.93%水平，线上游戏毛利率更高达82.95%，搜狐出售搜索业务并专注优势业务合乎情理。</p>\n<p>为何腾讯志在必得？</p>\n<p>搜狗与腾讯有广泛合作，是腾讯多款产品的默认搜索引擎，包括手机QQ浏览器、qq.com以及PC网站daohang.qq.com和hao.qq.com。2020年12月，搜狗有大约39%的搜索流量（按页面浏览量计），来自腾讯的互联网产品。搜狗的微信搜索是目前唯一能访问微信官方账户发布所有内容的通用搜索引擎。</p>\n<p>也就是说，搜狗的产品对于腾讯的多项功能来说，尤其最具影响力的社交媒体平台微信，是有用武之地的，能有效维持腾讯的用户体验，这是搜狗相对于腾讯的价值。</p>\n<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<p>由于腾讯私有化搜狗的交易未定，搜狗部分广告主对其业务战略和规则是否有变存有疑虑，搜狗的2020年和2021年第1季业绩显著下降。</p>\n<p>2020年，搜狗全年收入按年下滑21.12%，至9.25亿美元，并转盈为亏，产生净亏损1.08亿美元，相较上年为盈利8911万美元。</p>\n<p>2021年第1季，其季度收入进一步下滑27.59%，至1.37亿美元，经营亏损扩大至4892亿美元，不过得益于所投资的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>(ZH.US)于期内在美国成功上市产生的投资收益，搜狗录得季度净利润3525万美元。</p>\n<p>现在，监管方面对交易开了绿灯，私有化交易或可顺利进行，散户投资者也可高价离场而不用守着盈利前景似乎有点不妙的搜狗，应是好事。</p>\n<p>与腾讯整合之后，搜狗能发挥怎样的作用尚未可知，但这次的监管放行，或多少缓和市场对于最近腾讯深陷监管迷雾的忧虑。不过，此交易只是一次个别事件，全世界监管趋严是大趋势，大互联网公司正处于风眼，投资者仍需谨慎。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>搜狗私有化稳了？搜狐笑了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n搜狗私有化稳了？搜狐笑了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/4\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/59365c1175604684a63ab49059431645);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">港股解码 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-15 21:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>自2017年11月在纽交所上市以来，呈高开低走的搜索引擎<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOGO\">搜狗</a></b>，私有化之路又近了一步。</p>\n<p>近日，市场监督管理总局对于<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a></b>收购搜狗公司股权的经营者集中案件给予无条件批准，这让腾讯全面收购搜狗向前迈了一步。</p>\n<p>在这之前不久，市场监督管理总局针对腾讯于2013年收购搜狗36.5%权益没有在规定期限内提出陈述，而处以50万元的行政罚款。</p>\n<p>加上最近有关当局对互联网企业的反垄断监管增强，此举多少有点出乎意料。</p>\n<p>受有关消息带动，搜狗隔夜美股股价上涨2.3%，收报8.90美元，接近腾讯提出的私有化价格9美元水平，市值为34.33亿美元；搜狗另一大股东<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOHU\">搜狐</a></b>股价大涨27.58%，收报23.73美元，市值9.33亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abda914e0e63eaee987e3e707f07185\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>搜狗背后的资本局</b></p>\n<p>从搜狗的发家史可以看出，搜狐与其渊源颇深</p>\n<p>Sogou Inc.于2005年12月在开曼群岛成立。</p>\n<p>在2006年2月之前，该公司的搜索和相关业务由搜狐持有或控制的多个实体运营。2006年2月，搜狐对其搜索和相关业务进行了重组，将大部分业务转移到搜狗。</p>\n<p>2010年10月，搜狐进行了新一轮重组，以筹备搜狗的上市前A轮优先股发行，并将与搜索相关的业务和员工转移到搜狗。</p>\n<p>搜狗分别向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、阿里巴巴和马云参与发起的云锋基金旗下的China Web，以及搜狐董事长张朝阳旗下的Photon，发行并出售A轮优先股。随后，搜狐于2012年6月向阿里巴巴回购了后者所持有的A轮优先股。</p>\n<p>2013年9月，腾讯以现金方式向搜狗投资4.48亿美元，并将其持有的搜索相关业务“搜搜”和其他资产转移到搜狗。作为交换，搜狗向腾讯发行了B轮优先股以及B类普通股。这宗交易正是上述市场监督管理总局处以50万元行政罚款的由头（与私有化交易无关）。</p>\n<p>2013年12月，腾讯从多名股东手中（主要为搜狗员工）收购了搜狗的A类普通股。</p>\n<p>2014年3月，搜狗从China Web手中回购了之前所发行的A轮优先股。到此，阿里系基本退出搜狗的投资。</p>\n<p>2015年9月，搜狗从搜狐和Photon手中回购A轮优先股。</p>\n<p>2017年11月13日，搜狗在纽交所上市。上市前夕，搜狐、腾讯和搜狗签订了投票权协议，搜狐将继续有权任命董事会的大部分席位，搜狐和腾讯作为合体有权决定所有重大事情。</p>\n<p>2020年9月29日，搜狗与腾讯订立合并协议，腾讯将以每股/每份ADS 9美元的现金代价，收购未持有的搜狗全部已发行股份，较2020年7月24日私有化公告发布前最后交易日的收市价溢价56.5%，较私有化公告前30个交易日的均价溢价83%。</p>\n<p>2020年下半年至今，全球对互联网企业的监管增强，美国上市的中概股亦归心似箭，这次监管放行，让搜狗私有化取得进展。</p>\n<p><b>搜狐笑了</b></p>\n<p>从搜狗的发家史可以看出，搜狐与其渊源颇深，搜狗本身就从搜狐的搜索业务部门分拆而来，首席执行官王小川是搜狐前首席技术官，搜狐为搜狗最初的资金供应方。</p>\n<p>截至2021年2月26日，搜狐于搜狗的持股比例为33.8%，投票权占了44%。除此以外，搜狐董事长张朝阳还持有搜狗的6.4%权益和0.9%投票权。搜狗董事会合共十席，管理层占了四席、独立董事占了三席、腾讯占了一席、搜狐占了两席。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c9b5766a05493d8f378d364be2effe\" tg-width=\"743\" tg-height=\"261\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>从搜狗融资、上市到腾讯私有化，搜狐所赚取的收益应已不少，这包括2013年9月腾讯入股时搜狗向搜狐和Photon分别派发的1.612亿美元和4300万美元特别股息；2015年9月搜狗分别以7880万美元和2100万美元从搜狐和Photon手中回购A轮优先股；再到如今腾讯私有化，搜狐预计可从有关交易合共取得11.8亿美元现金，是搜狐当前市值的1.26倍。</p>\n<p>无怪乎在市场监督管理总局开绿灯后，搜狐的股价大涨。</p>\n<p>从搜狐的搜索部门，摇身一变成为腾讯自己人，搜狗这盘生意到底如何？为何搜狐唾弃、而腾讯入股之后还要全面控股如此执着？</p>\n<p>搜狗如何赚钱？</p>\n<p>搜狗的收入主要来自搜索和相关广告服务，亦即允许广告商在其搜索结果页面、其他互联网功能等展示促销链接，并获取相应的收入。另外，互联网增值服务也贡献收入，主要为第三方开发的游戏，以及提供其他产品和服务，包括智能硬件产品和线上贷款及小额贷款服务。</p>\n<p>见下图，搜索和搜索相关广告贡献了搜狗至少九成收入，2020年这一比例为90.57%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7965443816b54813983603efd6414c96\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>搜索和搜索相关广告服务中，尤以基于竞价的按点击收费（pay-for-click）服务占主导，2018年至2020年期间，该收入占搜索和搜索相关广告服务收入的比重分别为83.8%、88.1%和86.8%。</p>\n<p>搜索和搜索相关广告服务主要通过广告代理网络招徕广告主，引流成本是搜狗最大的支出，2020年，该成本占收入的比重高达62.56%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e713d291ec47129e49b8b059cf146a\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>正因如此，搜狗的利润表现并没有跟随其收入的扩大而增加，反而不断缩小，见下图。即使不考虑受疫情和私有化不确定性影响的2020年业绩，其收入于2019年到达顶峰，但利润却开始下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2db0df68b41f452c827391847233fbe4\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>为何搜狐不留恋？</b></p>\n<p>搜狗8亿美元的搜索及关联广告收入规模，实在无法与头部搜索巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>（09888.HK，BIDU.US）逾100亿美元的线上营销服务收入规模相提并论。对于搜狐来说，搜狗的业务显得有点鸡肋。</p>\n<p>首先，搜狗所面对的竞争十分激烈。</p>\n<p>在国内搜索引擎和搜索相关服务市场主要面对的竞争来自百度和阿里巴巴(09988.HK)的神马搜索；在网站和手机应用吸纳用户和广告主方面，竞争对手包括旅游服务和信息平台携程和去哪儿，团购平台美团(03690.H)，线上分类广告平台58.com等。此外，该公司不仅要与互联网企业竞争广告主，还面对其他广告媒体的竞争，包括纸媒、广告牌和巴士广告、电视等。</p>\n<p>见下图，虽然搜狗能够保持广告主数目的增长，但每名客户价值（ARPA）持续下降，或反映其为了确保客户数目，定价力备受考验。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca64aef8885a48078ef8486cab5ec521\" tg-width=\"655\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>搜狗每一单位引流成本所产生的广告收入呈下降趋势，折射出竞争的激烈，也显示其尚未能通过技术的升级提升效益。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bfad57f08194ab78d01c657d818e5e5\" tg-width=\"667\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>搜狐目前聚焦于品牌广告、视频迭代以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CYOU\">畅游</a>的在线游戏业务。2020年，搜狗的毛利率只有20.61%，而搜狐的品牌广告毛利率维持在27.93%水平，线上游戏毛利率更高达82.95%，搜狐出售搜索业务并专注优势业务合乎情理。</p>\n<p>为何腾讯志在必得？</p>\n<p>搜狗与腾讯有广泛合作，是腾讯多款产品的默认搜索引擎，包括手机QQ浏览器、qq.com以及PC网站daohang.qq.com和hao.qq.com。2020年12月，搜狗有大约39%的搜索流量（按页面浏览量计），来自腾讯的互联网产品。搜狗的微信搜索是目前唯一能访问微信官方账户发布所有内容的通用搜索引擎。</p>\n<p>也就是说，搜狗的产品对于腾讯的多项功能来说，尤其最具影响力的社交媒体平台微信，是有用武之地的，能有效维持腾讯的用户体验，这是搜狗相对于腾讯的价值。</p>\n<p><b>总结</b></p>\n<p>由于腾讯私有化搜狗的交易未定，搜狗部分广告主对其业务战略和规则是否有变存有疑虑，搜狗的2020年和2021年第1季业绩显著下降。</p>\n<p>2020年，搜狗全年收入按年下滑21.12%，至9.25亿美元，并转盈为亏，产生净亏损1.08亿美元，相较上年为盈利8911万美元。</p>\n<p>2021年第1季，其季度收入进一步下滑27.59%，至1.37亿美元，经营亏损扩大至4892亿美元，不过得益于所投资的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>(ZH.US)于期内在美国成功上市产生的投资收益，搜狗录得季度净利润3525万美元。</p>\n<p>现在，监管方面对交易开了绿灯，私有化交易或可顺利进行，散户投资者也可高价离场而不用守着盈利前景似乎有点不妙的搜狗，应是好事。</p>\n<p>与腾讯整合之后，搜狗能发挥怎样的作用尚未可知，但这次的监管放行，或多少缓和市场对于最近腾讯深陷监管迷雾的忧虑。不过，此交易只是一次个别事件，全世界监管趋严是大趋势，大互联网公司正处于风眼，投资者仍需谨慎。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31d2df4f8e3f63a4da2cd1ef02cf8911","relate_stocks":{"SOHU":"搜狐","SOGO":"搜狗"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151210135","content_text":"自2017年11月在纽交所上市以来，呈高开低走的搜索引擎搜狗，私有化之路又近了一步。\n近日，市场监督管理总局对于腾讯收购搜狗公司股权的经营者集中案件给予无条件批准，这让腾讯全面收购搜狗向前迈了一步。\n在这之前不久，市场监督管理总局针对腾讯于2013年收购搜狗36.5%权益没有在规定期限内提出陈述，而处以50万元的行政罚款。\n加上最近有关当局对互联网企业的反垄断监管增强，此举多少有点出乎意料。\n受有关消息带动，搜狗隔夜美股股价上涨2.3%，收报8.90美元，接近腾讯提出的私有化价格9美元水平，市值为34.33亿美元；搜狗另一大股东搜狐股价大涨27.58%，收报23.73美元，市值9.33亿美元。\n\n搜狗背后的资本局\n从搜狗的发家史可以看出，搜狐与其渊源颇深\nSogou Inc.于2005年12月在开曼群岛成立。\n在2006年2月之前，该公司的搜索和相关业务由搜狐持有或控制的多个实体运营。2006年2月，搜狐对其搜索和相关业务进行了重组，将大部分业务转移到搜狗。\n2010年10月，搜狐进行了新一轮重组，以筹备搜狗的上市前A轮优先股发行，并将与搜索相关的业务和员工转移到搜狗。\n搜狗分别向阿里巴巴、阿里巴巴和马云参与发起的云锋基金旗下的China Web，以及搜狐董事长张朝阳旗下的Photon，发行并出售A轮优先股。随后，搜狐于2012年6月向阿里巴巴回购了后者所持有的A轮优先股。\n2013年9月，腾讯以现金方式向搜狗投资4.48亿美元，并将其持有的搜索相关业务“搜搜”和其他资产转移到搜狗。作为交换，搜狗向腾讯发行了B轮优先股以及B类普通股。这宗交易正是上述市场监督管理总局处以50万元行政罚款的由头（与私有化交易无关）。\n2013年12月，腾讯从多名股东手中（主要为搜狗员工）收购了搜狗的A类普通股。\n2014年3月，搜狗从China Web手中回购了之前所发行的A轮优先股。到此，阿里系基本退出搜狗的投资。\n2015年9月，搜狗从搜狐和Photon手中回购A轮优先股。\n2017年11月13日，搜狗在纽交所上市。上市前夕，搜狐、腾讯和搜狗签订了投票权协议，搜狐将继续有权任命董事会的大部分席位，搜狐和腾讯作为合体有权决定所有重大事情。\n2020年9月29日，搜狗与腾讯订立合并协议，腾讯将以每股/每份ADS 9美元的现金代价，收购未持有的搜狗全部已发行股份，较2020年7月24日私有化公告发布前最后交易日的收市价溢价56.5%，较私有化公告前30个交易日的均价溢价83%。\n2020年下半年至今，全球对互联网企业的监管增强，美国上市的中概股亦归心似箭，这次监管放行，让搜狗私有化取得进展。\n搜狐笑了\n从搜狗的发家史可以看出，搜狐与其渊源颇深，搜狗本身就从搜狐的搜索业务部门分拆而来，首席执行官王小川是搜狐前首席技术官，搜狐为搜狗最初的资金供应方。\n截至2021年2月26日，搜狐于搜狗的持股比例为33.8%，投票权占了44%。除此以外，搜狐董事长张朝阳还持有搜狗的6.4%权益和0.9%投票权。搜狗董事会合共十席，管理层占了四席、独立董事占了三席、腾讯占了一席、搜狐占了两席。\n\n从搜狗融资、上市到腾讯私有化，搜狐所赚取的收益应已不少，这包括2013年9月腾讯入股时搜狗向搜狐和Photon分别派发的1.612亿美元和4300万美元特别股息；2015年9月搜狗分别以7880万美元和2100万美元从搜狐和Photon手中回购A轮优先股；再到如今腾讯私有化，搜狐预计可从有关交易合共取得11.8亿美元现金，是搜狐当前市值的1.26倍。\n无怪乎在市场监督管理总局开绿灯后，搜狐的股价大涨。\n从搜狐的搜索部门，摇身一变成为腾讯自己人，搜狗这盘生意到底如何？为何搜狐唾弃、而腾讯入股之后还要全面控股如此执着？\n搜狗如何赚钱？\n搜狗的收入主要来自搜索和相关广告服务，亦即允许广告商在其搜索结果页面、其他互联网功能等展示促销链接，并获取相应的收入。另外，互联网增值服务也贡献收入，主要为第三方开发的游戏，以及提供其他产品和服务，包括智能硬件产品和线上贷款及小额贷款服务。\n见下图，搜索和搜索相关广告贡献了搜狗至少九成收入，2020年这一比例为90.57%。\n\n搜索和搜索相关广告服务中，尤以基于竞价的按点击收费（pay-for-click）服务占主导，2018年至2020年期间，该收入占搜索和搜索相关广告服务收入的比重分别为83.8%、88.1%和86.8%。\n搜索和搜索相关广告服务主要通过广告代理网络招徕广告主，引流成本是搜狗最大的支出，2020年，该成本占收入的比重高达62.56%。\n\n正因如此，搜狗的利润表现并没有跟随其收入的扩大而增加，反而不断缩小，见下图。即使不考虑受疫情和私有化不确定性影响的2020年业绩，其收入于2019年到达顶峰，但利润却开始下降。\n\n为何搜狐不留恋？\n搜狗8亿美元的搜索及关联广告收入规模，实在无法与头部搜索巨头百度（09888.HK，BIDU.US）逾100亿美元的线上营销服务收入规模相提并论。对于搜狐来说，搜狗的业务显得有点鸡肋。\n首先，搜狗所面对的竞争十分激烈。\n在国内搜索引擎和搜索相关服务市场主要面对的竞争来自百度和阿里巴巴(09988.HK)的神马搜索；在网站和手机应用吸纳用户和广告主方面，竞争对手包括旅游服务和信息平台携程和去哪儿，团购平台美团(03690.H)，线上分类广告平台58.com等。此外，该公司不仅要与互联网企业竞争广告主，还面对其他广告媒体的竞争，包括纸媒、广告牌和巴士广告、电视等。\n见下图，虽然搜狗能够保持广告主数目的增长，但每名客户价值（ARPA）持续下降，或反映其为了确保客户数目，定价力备受考验。\n\n搜狗每一单位引流成本所产生的广告收入呈下降趋势，折射出竞争的激烈，也显示其尚未能通过技术的升级提升效益。\n\n搜狐目前聚焦于品牌广告、视频迭代以及畅游的在线游戏业务。2020年，搜狗的毛利率只有20.61%，而搜狐的品牌广告毛利率维持在27.93%水平，线上游戏毛利率更高达82.95%，搜狐出售搜索业务并专注优势业务合乎情理。\n为何腾讯志在必得？\n搜狗与腾讯有广泛合作，是腾讯多款产品的默认搜索引擎，包括手机QQ浏览器、qq.com以及PC网站daohang.qq.com和hao.qq.com。2020年12月，搜狗有大约39%的搜索流量（按页面浏览量计），来自腾讯的互联网产品。搜狗的微信搜索是目前唯一能访问微信官方账户发布所有内容的通用搜索引擎。\n也就是说，搜狗的产品对于腾讯的多项功能来说，尤其最具影响力的社交媒体平台微信，是有用武之地的，能有效维持腾讯的用户体验，这是搜狗相对于腾讯的价值。\n总结\n由于腾讯私有化搜狗的交易未定，搜狗部分广告主对其业务战略和规则是否有变存有疑虑，搜狗的2020年和2021年第1季业绩显著下降。\n2020年，搜狗全年收入按年下滑21.12%，至9.25亿美元，并转盈为亏，产生净亏损1.08亿美元，相较上年为盈利8911万美元。\n2021年第1季，其季度收入进一步下滑27.59%，至1.37亿美元，经营亏损扩大至4892亿美元，不过得益于所投资的知乎(ZH.US)于期内在美国成功上市产生的投资收益，搜狗录得季度净利润3525万美元。\n现在，监管方面对交易开了绿灯，私有化交易或可顺利进行，散户投资者也可高价离场而不用守着盈利前景似乎有点不妙的搜狗，应是好事。\n与腾讯整合之后，搜狗能发挥怎样的作用尚未可知，但这次的监管放行，或多少缓和市场对于最近腾讯深陷监管迷雾的忧虑。不过，此交易只是一次个别事件，全世界监管趋严是大趋势，大互联网公司正处于风眼，投资者仍需谨慎。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147685678,"gmtCreate":1626356335394,"gmtModify":1703758542154,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like my comment","listText":"please like my comment","text":"please like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147685678","repostId":"1130429804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148014691,"gmtCreate":1625899980413,"gmtModify":1703750720250,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like&nbsp;and commen","listText":"like&nbsp;and commen","text":"like and commen","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/148014691","repostId":"1106394312","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128135762,"gmtCreate":1624505243756,"gmtModify":1703838664254,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/128135762","repostId":"1136951406","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136951406","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624497362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136951406?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-24 09:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"朝聚眼科今起招股，一手入场费约5353.41港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136951406","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月24日，朝聚眼科发布公告，公司于6月24日至6月29日招股；公司拟全球发售1.7093亿股股份，其中香港发售股份1709.3万股，国际发售股份1.53837亿股；每股发行价9.48-10.60港元","content":"<p>6月24日，朝聚眼科发布公告，公司于6月24日至6月29日招股；公司拟全球发售1.7093亿股股份，其中香港发售股份1709.3万股，国际发售股份1.53837亿股；每股发行价9.48-10.60港元，每手买卖单位500股，入场费约5353.41港元；海通国际及华泰国际为联席保荐人，预期股份将于7月7日于联交所主板挂牌上市。</p>\n<p><b>Tiger Trade将于11:30开放申购【</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>申购入口</b></a><b>】</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/396a841474a75b2709096e6774872273\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"763\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>申购阶梯：</b></p>\n<p>每手500股，入场费5353.41港元。</p>\n<p>乙组门槛为50万股，申购所需资金约5353408.1港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad211e1911379810ca70b4c49d2cfe8\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>集团是中国华北地区领先、全国知名的眼科医疗服务集团。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，于民营眼科医院中，按2020年的收益总额计，集团在内蒙古排名第一、在中国华北地区排名第二及在中国排名第五。中国拥有一个庞大且快速成长的眼科医疗服务市场。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，中国眼科医疗服务市场的规模从2015年的人民币730亿元增加至2019年的人民币1,275亿元，复合年增长率达15.0%，预计将进一步增至2024年的人民币2,231亿元；中国华北地区眼科医疗服务市场的规模从2015年的人民币132亿元增加至2019年的人民币212亿元，复合年增长率达12.5%，预计将进一步增长至2024年的人民币337亿元；内蒙古眼科医疗服务市场的规模由2015年的人民币11亿元增至2019年的人民币20亿元，复合年增长率达15.6%，预期将进一步增长至2024年的人民币33亿元。随着人口增加，加上眼科医疗服务需求殷切，预期中国眼科医疗服务市场的增长潜力庞大。凭藉集团于眼科服务的经验及市场领先优势，集团相信集团处于有利位置以把握不断增长的机遇，并从中国眼科服务市场的快速扩展中受惠。</p>\n<p>于往绩记录期间，集团迎来快速增长。集团的收益由2018年的人民币6.327亿元增加13.0%至2019年的人民币7.147亿元，并进一步增加11.1%至2020年的人民币7.943亿元。集团的纯利亦由2018年的人民币2920万元大幅增加至2019年的人民币7080万元，并进一步增加70.2%至2020年的人民币1.205亿元。于2018年、2019年及2020年，集团医院的患者就诊人次分别为638,650名、702,143名及696,206名，且视光中心的客户就诊人次分别为73,935名、79,903名及91,660名。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b85516f9bf7cbda5d3618c2a26e58d7\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>集团已与基石投资者订立基石投资协议，据此，基石投资者已同意按发售价认购或促使其指定实体按发售价认购若干数目的发售股份。基石投资者已同意按发售价认购可认购有关数目的发售股份，总额为1.02亿美元或约7.92亿港元。按发售价每股10.04港元(即发售价范围中位数)计算，假设超额配股权不获行使，基石投资者将予认购的股份总数为7883.95万股，占发售股份约46.12%及紧随全球发售完成后已发行股本总额约11.47%。基石投资者包括富国基金管理有限公司、Gigantic Wealth Holdings Limited、通柏资本(香港)有限公司、及The Valliance Fund。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec0f4980a5f1eb938ada0e1abe84825\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>假设发售价为每股10.04港元(即发售价范围中位数)，并假设超额配股权未获行使，集团估计收取的全球发售所得款项净额将约为12.832亿港元。其中，全球发售所得款项净额约35.8%将用于建立新医院以及搬迁、升级及装修现有医院；约44.8%将在出现合适机遇时，用于在人口庞大且对眼科医疗服务需求相对较高的新市场中收购医院；约9.4%将用于升级集团的信息技术系统；及约10.0%将用于营运资金及其他一般企业用途。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n朝聚眼科今起招股，一手入场费约5353.41港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-24 09:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月24日，朝聚眼科发布公告，公司于6月24日至6月29日招股；公司拟全球发售1.7093亿股股份，其中香港发售股份1709.3万股，国际发售股份1.53837亿股；每股发行价9.48-10.60港元，每手买卖单位500股，入场费约5353.41港元；海通国际及华泰国际为联席保荐人，预期股份将于7月7日于联交所主板挂牌上市。</p>\n<p><b>Tiger Trade将于11:30开放申购【</b><a href=\"https://www-web.itiger.com/mi/ipo/index/hk/listing\" target=\"_blank\"><b>申购入口</b></a><b>】</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/396a841474a75b2709096e6774872273\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"763\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>申购阶梯：</b></p>\n<p>每手500股，入场费5353.41港元。</p>\n<p>乙组门槛为50万股，申购所需资金约5353408.1港元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ad211e1911379810ca70b4c49d2cfe8\" tg-width=\"1153\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>集团是中国华北地区领先、全国知名的眼科医疗服务集团。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，于民营眼科医院中，按2020年的收益总额计，集团在内蒙古排名第一、在中国华北地区排名第二及在中国排名第五。中国拥有一个庞大且快速成长的眼科医疗服务市场。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，中国眼科医疗服务市场的规模从2015年的人民币730亿元增加至2019年的人民币1,275亿元，复合年增长率达15.0%，预计将进一步增至2024年的人民币2,231亿元；中国华北地区眼科医疗服务市场的规模从2015年的人民币132亿元增加至2019年的人民币212亿元，复合年增长率达12.5%，预计将进一步增长至2024年的人民币337亿元；内蒙古眼科医疗服务市场的规模由2015年的人民币11亿元增至2019年的人民币20亿元，复合年增长率达15.6%，预期将进一步增长至2024年的人民币33亿元。随着人口增加，加上眼科医疗服务需求殷切，预期中国眼科医疗服务市场的增长潜力庞大。凭藉集团于眼科服务的经验及市场领先优势，集团相信集团处于有利位置以把握不断增长的机遇，并从中国眼科服务市场的快速扩展中受惠。</p>\n<p>于往绩记录期间，集团迎来快速增长。集团的收益由2018年的人民币6.327亿元增加13.0%至2019年的人民币7.147亿元，并进一步增加11.1%至2020年的人民币7.943亿元。集团的纯利亦由2018年的人民币2920万元大幅增加至2019年的人民币7080万元，并进一步增加70.2%至2020年的人民币1.205亿元。于2018年、2019年及2020年，集团医院的患者就诊人次分别为638,650名、702,143名及696,206名，且视光中心的客户就诊人次分别为73,935名、79,903名及91,660名。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b85516f9bf7cbda5d3618c2a26e58d7\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"639\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>集团已与基石投资者订立基石投资协议，据此，基石投资者已同意按发售价认购或促使其指定实体按发售价认购若干数目的发售股份。基石投资者已同意按发售价认购可认购有关数目的发售股份，总额为1.02亿美元或约7.92亿港元。按发售价每股10.04港元(即发售价范围中位数)计算，假设超额配股权不获行使，基石投资者将予认购的股份总数为7883.95万股，占发售股份约46.12%及紧随全球发售完成后已发行股本总额约11.47%。基石投资者包括富国基金管理有限公司、Gigantic Wealth Holdings Limited、通柏资本(香港)有限公司、及The Valliance Fund。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bec0f4980a5f1eb938ada0e1abe84825\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"629\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>假设发售价为每股10.04港元(即发售价范围中位数)，并假设超额配股权未获行使，集团估计收取的全球发售所得款项净额将约为12.832亿港元。其中，全球发售所得款项净额约35.8%将用于建立新医院以及搬迁、升级及装修现有医院；约44.8%将在出现合适机遇时，用于在人口庞大且对眼科医疗服务需求相对较高的新市场中收购医院；约9.4%将用于升级集团的信息技术系统；及约10.0%将用于营运资金及其他一般企业用途。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{"02219":"朝聚眼科"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136951406","content_text":"6月24日，朝聚眼科发布公告，公司于6月24日至6月29日招股；公司拟全球发售1.7093亿股股份，其中香港发售股份1709.3万股，国际发售股份1.53837亿股；每股发行价9.48-10.60港元，每手买卖单位500股，入场费约5353.41港元；海通国际及华泰国际为联席保荐人，预期股份将于7月7日于联交所主板挂牌上市。\nTiger Trade将于11:30开放申购【申购入口】\n\n申购阶梯：\n每手500股，入场费5353.41港元。\n乙组门槛为50万股，申购所需资金约5353408.1港元。\n\n集团是中国华北地区领先、全国知名的眼科医疗服务集团。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，于民营眼科医院中，按2020年的收益总额计，集团在内蒙古排名第一、在中国华北地区排名第二及在中国排名第五。中国拥有一个庞大且快速成长的眼科医疗服务市场。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，中国眼科医疗服务市场的规模从2015年的人民币730亿元增加至2019年的人民币1,275亿元，复合年增长率达15.0%，预计将进一步增至2024年的人民币2,231亿元；中国华北地区眼科医疗服务市场的规模从2015年的人民币132亿元增加至2019年的人民币212亿元，复合年增长率达12.5%，预计将进一步增长至2024年的人民币337亿元；内蒙古眼科医疗服务市场的规模由2015年的人民币11亿元增至2019年的人民币20亿元，复合年增长率达15.6%，预期将进一步增长至2024年的人民币33亿元。随着人口增加，加上眼科医疗服务需求殷切，预期中国眼科医疗服务市场的增长潜力庞大。凭藉集团于眼科服务的经验及市场领先优势，集团相信集团处于有利位置以把握不断增长的机遇，并从中国眼科服务市场的快速扩展中受惠。\n于往绩记录期间，集团迎来快速增长。集团的收益由2018年的人民币6.327亿元增加13.0%至2019年的人民币7.147亿元，并进一步增加11.1%至2020年的人民币7.943亿元。集团的纯利亦由2018年的人民币2920万元大幅增加至2019年的人民币7080万元，并进一步增加70.2%至2020年的人民币1.205亿元。于2018年、2019年及2020年，集团医院的患者就诊人次分别为638,650名、702,143名及696,206名，且视光中心的客户就诊人次分别为73,935名、79,903名及91,660名。\n\n集团已与基石投资者订立基石投资协议，据此，基石投资者已同意按发售价认购或促使其指定实体按发售价认购若干数目的发售股份。基石投资者已同意按发售价认购可认购有关数目的发售股份，总额为1.02亿美元或约7.92亿港元。按发售价每股10.04港元(即发售价范围中位数)计算，假设超额配股权不获行使，基石投资者将予认购的股份总数为7883.95万股，占发售股份约46.12%及紧随全球发售完成后已发行股本总额约11.47%。基石投资者包括富国基金管理有限公司、Gigantic Wealth Holdings Limited、通柏资本(香港)有限公司、及The Valliance Fund。\n\n假设发售价为每股10.04港元(即发售价范围中位数)，并假设超额配股权未获行使，集团估计收取的全球发售所得款项净额将约为12.832亿港元。其中，全球发售所得款项净额约35.8%将用于建立新医院以及搬迁、升级及装修现有医院；约44.8%将在出现合适机遇时，用于在人口庞大且对眼科医疗服务需求相对较高的新市场中收购医院；约9.4%将用于升级集团的信息技术系统；及约10.0%将用于营运资金及其他一般企业用途。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129826747,"gmtCreate":1624369324189,"gmtModify":1703834621337,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129826747","repostId":"1158994165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158994165","pubTimestamp":1624366338,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158994165?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 20:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"沃尔玛VS亚马逊：美国零售之王的战争","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158994165","media":"霞光社 ","summary":"今年亚马逊再一次面临了来自沃尔玛的挑战。","content":"<p>夏日到来，还有什么比疯狂购物更能引起人们的兴趣呢？</p>\n<p>与中国进行得如火如荼的618购物狂欢节类似，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>（Amazon）也于6月21日（周一）和6月22日（周二）举行一年一度的促销狂欢活动（即Amazon Prime Day）。去年，虽然受到疫情影响，亚马逊等大多数商家不得不将促销节推迟到十月份，但亚马逊上的小中型企业依旧在Prime Day中创下了35亿美元的收入，环比增长60%。</p>\n<p><b>然而，今年亚马逊再一次面临了来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>的挑战。</b>在亚马逊宣布其促销活动后，沃尔玛也在同一天推出了“2021年特惠日”（2021 Deals for Days）的超级促销活动，活动从6月20日持续到23日，比亚马逊还更多两天。沃尔玛发言人称，在这四天时间内，无论是在沃尔玛官网还是在实体店，消费者都可以在园艺、电子产品、家居用品、玩具、美妆、时装等各类商品上享受“黑色星期五”时才能享受的巨大折扣。据悉，今年沃尔玛把每年感恩节后一天（即每年11月的第四个星期五）才会举行的“黑色星期五”大促销移动至6月，而11月将不再举行大促活动。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1241bdcd5c343d678302482cd00eb2f4\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>亚马逊与沃尔玛这两家全球最大零售商的竞争并不让人陌生。2020年，亚马逊的Prime Day活动举办时，沃尔玛则推出了为期五天的“巨省钱”（Big Save）促销活动。2020年12月，沃尔玛还推出了一项名为“沃尔玛+”（Walmart +）的会员服务，与亚马逊Prime会员的服务十分类似。</p>\n<p>据美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>银行发布的研究报告，<b>亚马逊有望在2022年取代沃尔玛成为美国最大的零售商</b>。分析师表示，亚马逊在美国的零售业领域“规模增长最快”，虽然两家均未在季度业绩中公布商品交易总额，但据估计，亚马逊的商品交易总额增长速度快于沃尔玛。</p>\n<p>分析师称，亚马逊2020年的商品交易总额环比增长41%，达到3160亿美元，而沃尔玛2020年的商品交易总额环比增长10%，达到4390亿美元。虽然目前亚马逊的交易总额低于沃尔玛，但按照目前的增速预计，2022年，亚马逊有望超越沃尔玛。</p>\n<p>虽然亚马逊冲劲满满，但美国零售业未来格局如何，还需从更具体方面分析。</p>\n<p><b>亚马逊vs沃尔玛，全方位对比解析</b></p>\n<p><b>线下实体销售</b></p>\n<p>就线下的实体零售业务而言，沃尔玛长期占据优势。沃尔玛在美国拥有4700多家门店，长久以来已经成为了美国人习惯消费的场所，据估计90%的美国人都住在距离沃尔玛门店不到10英里的地方。</p>\n<p>而同时，亚马逊的实体零售业务正在大步前进。2020年，亚马逊扩大了自己的线下业务，除了开设Whole Foods的500多家门店外，亚马逊还在美国各地开设了大规模的亚马逊生鲜（Amazon Fresh）店。目前，亚马逊在运营11家沃尔玛门店，还有28家正在筹建中，但对于未来的规划，亚马逊没有更进一步的表示。</p>\n<p>从线下业务来看，沃尔玛以其无处不在的门店在实体店领域占据主导地位，尽管亚马逊发展迅速，但仍有很长的路要走。</p>\n<p><b>电商增长与网络服务</b></p>\n<p>新冠疫情使得所有商店都进入了数字化增长的快速轨道，沃尔玛和亚马逊均不例外。在2021财年（即2020年2月1日到2021年1月31日），沃尔玛的电商业务增长了79%。而亚马逊则占据了美国所有电商销售额的40%，而且这一数字还在不断增长。</p>\n<p>沃尔玛的新版应用以及新的门店设计将顾客的手机纳入到购物中，模糊了线下购物和网上购物之间的界限。2020年，沃尔玛推出了相当于Amazon Prime会员的“沃尔玛+” （Walmart +）会员，囊括了免费的送货服务、Scan and Go店内购物服务和汽油折扣等各项优惠服务，在其推出的五个月里，沃尔玛收获了大约800万用户。</p>\n<p>而从亚马逊来看，除了线上购物外，亚马逊还在Prime流媒体视频业务上取得了巨大成功，2020年，该业务的用户已超过1.75亿，流媒体时长同比增长了70%以上。另外，网络服务（Amazon Web Services）如今已成为该公司的宠儿，在2020年为亚马逊带来了135亿美元的利润。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13e3302325a7ad4e8318dd70c151fe43\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>在线上业务方面，赢家无疑是亚马逊，它的B2B和B2C业务，以及流媒体都增长成为了行业的领头羊。</p>\n<p><b>创新发展</b></p>\n<p>亚马逊和沃尔玛都走在创新的前沿。</p>\n<p>亚马逊方面，仅在去年，亚马逊就宣布了人脸支付、美国联邦航空局批准的无人机送货等创新服务，甚至还创建了美发沙龙——而所有这些都发生在新冠疫情流行期间。</p>\n<p>亚马逊还继续扩展到了新的领域，比如增加药品供应和加强其智能家居设备等。今年5月，亚马逊宣布以84.5亿美元收购米高梅电影公司，以扩展其商业版图。</p>\n<p>此外，亚马逊也一直是行业创新技术和自动化的领导者。2021年，亚马逊投资4000万美元建设新型仓储地，并将首先在马萨诸塞州开设一个35万平方英尺（约合32516.064平方米）的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>自动运输中心，旨在扩大机器人在供应链中的使用。</p>\n<p>沃尔玛也在订单执行和客户体验等方面不断创新。2020年，沃尔玛推出了Alphabot，该平台可以比人类更快、更准确地提取、打包和发送在线订单。</p>\n<p>此外，沃尔玛还在重新设计1000家门店，预计到2021年底将为顾客创造更精简、更迅捷的购物体验。据悉，新设计为顾客增加了更容易识别的标识，而升级后的App功能则能为顾客指出每件商品的确切位置。</p>\n<p>在创新方面，亚马逊显然更胜一筹。亚马逊以其创新的产品和服务，以及领先的机器人和人工智能技术革新了零售领域，也因此成为了行业中的头部企业。</p>\n<p><b>沃尔玛“抄作业”：最后一英里追逐战</b></p>\n<p>正如上文所述，沃尔玛的普遍优势在于线下服务，而亚马逊的优势则在于线上。为了与亚马逊形成抗衡之势，沃尔玛正在尝试借鉴亚马逊的做法，自己建立“最后一英里”（last mile）的独立配送服务。</p>\n<p>路透社称，建立独立配送业务是沃尔玛缩小与亚马逊电商销售差距的举措之一。此前，亚马逊已经招募了大批小企业，用印有该公司标志的货车提供送货服务，以期控制客户的等待时间和成本。</p>\n<p>自去年疫情袭击美国市场以来，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UPS\">联合包裹</a>运送服务公司UPS、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FDX\">联邦快递</a>公司FedEx和美国邮政总局USPS一直处于运送包裹的饱和状态，运送费用飙升，迫使各大企业在控制不断飙升的快递成本的同时，寻求新的方式递送快递。</p>\n<p>沃尔玛美国首席执行官约翰•<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FONR\">福纳</a>（John Furner）在公司业绩电话会议上表示，沃尔玛已在试用其首款 “最后一英里”送货车，将包裹从沃尔玛门店或配送中心送至顾客家中。</p>\n<p>沃尔玛发言人卡米尔•邓恩（Camille Dunn）说，自今年1月份以来，已有小型货车车队在阿肯色州沃尔玛总部附近的本顿维尔（Bentonville）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROG\">罗杰斯</a>（Rogers）地区运送包裹。</p>\n<p>全球物流市场研究公司Logistics Trends &amp; Insights的创始人凯西•莫罗•罗伯森（Cathy Morrow Roberson）表示:“他们（指沃尔玛）建立了一个货运网络，我不能说他们把顾客从亚马逊那里抢走了，但将包裹递送业务保留在内部确实可以带来优势。”</p>\n<p>美国知名投资媒体Motley Fool分析，沃尔玛在配送上具有一定优势：沃尔玛拥有自己独立的门店和配送中心，这意味着它拥有完成在线订单的商店网络和为这些商店供货的物流网络，这样沃尔玛就无需再在商品与仓储空间上花费心思。</p>\n<p>此外，沃尔玛的很大部分销售额仍然来自店内顾客，多年来顾客已经养成了购物习惯，因此，沃尔玛强大的综合性售卖服务能够留住“回头客”，确保足够的客流。</p>\n<p><b>亚马逊的“野望”：全球市场的建立</b></p>\n<p>虽然沃尔玛试图通过建立“最后一英里”以确保自己在零售市场的优势，不过，亚马逊似乎将眼光放在了更加广阔的全球市场上。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/085032a356457297052d97fce19a954b\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以亚马逊Prime会员为例，数字研究公司Insider Intelligence的子公司eMarketer估计，其用户在美国以外地区的增长速度要快于美国本土。这可能是因为Prime会员在美国市场已经接近饱和（根据eMarketer的数据，2021年已经约有65%的美国家庭成为Prime会员），而在其他国家，亚马逊可能只是刚刚起步，拥有足够的增长空间。</p>\n<p>据官方资料，2019年，亚马逊Prime Day的新注册用户达到历史最高，并且美国以外的地区注册率越来越高，这对于亚马逊国际销售产生了推动作用。而2021年的Prime Day，则将有20个国家参加，包括中国、墨西哥、日本、意大利、土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和许多其他国家。</p>\n<p>亚马逊通过Prime提供的福利因国家而异。在英国和欧洲部分地区，食品是主要的吸引力，而在新兴市场中， Prim则以视频流媒体作为主要吸引力。亚马逊的投资者关系主管戴夫•菲尔德斯（Dave Fildes）在4月份的业绩电话会议上说：“比如在巴西，用户首先接受视频订阅服务，然后关注到其他比如购物方面，成为更广泛的Prime会员。这是一种让新客户接触亚马逊的方式。”</p>\n<p>菲尔德斯还指出，如果用户使用流媒体观看视频，那么在30天免费试用后，用户就更有可能注册Prime会员。而一旦注册，则很可能会在会员时间内在亚马逊上消费，由此实现亚马逊的全球市场的扩张。</p>\n<p>而相比之下，沃尔玛的全球市场则前景不明——2018年初，沃尔玛暂时放弃了增长缓慢和举步维艰的国际业务，转而寻求增长更快的电商业务。不过，此后，沃尔玛逐渐重塑其国际业务，以160亿美元收购印度电子商务初创企业Flipkart，并投资了加拿大和墨西哥的电商业务。</p>\n<p>2021年1月到3月，沃尔玛国际（Walmart International）公布其收入因“受到了（新冠疫情下）某些市场政府强制限制的负面影响”下降了8.3%，下降至了273亿美元。不过，因为国际电商业务的强劲助力，其市场仍保持了5.1%的增长。</p>\n<p>在这场追逐战中，“美国零售之王”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5HT.SI\">皇冠</a>会落入谁家？让我们拭目以待。</p>\n<p><b><i>文章翻译自：</i></b></p>\n<p><i>By Cortney Moore, Walmart's 'Deals for Days' event starts <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> day ahead of Prime Day, FOX Business, https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/walmart-deals-days-amazon-prime</i></p>\n<p><i>Blake Morgan, Who Wins The Battle Of Walmart Vs. Amazon?, Forbes,</i></p>\n<p><i>https://www.forbes.com/sites/blakemorgan/2021/06/14/who-wins-the-battle-of-walmart-vs-amazon/?sh=2537584a5ba7</i></p>\n<p><i>Lisa Baertlein, Echoing Amazon: Walmart, Target try local package delivery, Reuters,</i></p>\n<p><i>https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/echoing-amazon-walmart-target-try-local-package-delivery-2021-05-19/</i></p>\n<p><i>Marc Bain, Amazon Prime has signed up most of America—now it wants the rest of the world, Quartz, https://qz.com/2018881/amazon-prime-day-prime-is-how-amazon-expands-around-the-world/</i></p>","source":"lsy1601451636609","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>沃尔玛VS亚马逊：美国零售之王的战争</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n沃尔玛VS亚马逊：美国零售之王的战争\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 20:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mI3jXunxtG2NsNaraEXy1Q><strong>霞光社 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>夏日到来，还有什么比疯狂购物更能引起人们的兴趣呢？\n与中国进行得如火如荼的618购物狂欢节类似，亚马逊（Amazon）也于6月21日（周一）和6月22日（周二）举行一年一度的促销狂欢活动（即Amazon Prime Day）。去年，虽然受到疫情影响，亚马逊等大多数商家不得不将促销节推迟到十月份，但亚马逊上的小中型企业依旧在Prime Day中创下了35亿美元的收入，环比增长60%。\n然而，今年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mI3jXunxtG2NsNaraEXy1Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1277c588f730effea40429d55740af79","relate_stocks":{"WMT":"沃尔玛","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/mI3jXunxtG2NsNaraEXy1Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158994165","content_text":"夏日到来，还有什么比疯狂购物更能引起人们的兴趣呢？\n与中国进行得如火如荼的618购物狂欢节类似，亚马逊（Amazon）也于6月21日（周一）和6月22日（周二）举行一年一度的促销狂欢活动（即Amazon Prime Day）。去年，虽然受到疫情影响，亚马逊等大多数商家不得不将促销节推迟到十月份，但亚马逊上的小中型企业依旧在Prime Day中创下了35亿美元的收入，环比增长60%。\n然而，今年亚马逊再一次面临了来自沃尔玛的挑战。在亚马逊宣布其促销活动后，沃尔玛也在同一天推出了“2021年特惠日”（2021 Deals for Days）的超级促销活动，活动从6月20日持续到23日，比亚马逊还更多两天。沃尔玛发言人称，在这四天时间内，无论是在沃尔玛官网还是在实体店，消费者都可以在园艺、电子产品、家居用品、玩具、美妆、时装等各类商品上享受“黑色星期五”时才能享受的巨大折扣。据悉，今年沃尔玛把每年感恩节后一天（即每年11月的第四个星期五）才会举行的“黑色星期五”大促销移动至6月，而11月将不再举行大促活动。\n\n亚马逊与沃尔玛这两家全球最大零售商的竞争并不让人陌生。2020年，亚马逊的Prime Day活动举办时，沃尔玛则推出了为期五天的“巨省钱”（Big Save）促销活动。2020年12月，沃尔玛还推出了一项名为“沃尔玛+”（Walmart +）的会员服务，与亚马逊Prime会员的服务十分类似。\n据美国摩根大通银行发布的研究报告，亚马逊有望在2022年取代沃尔玛成为美国最大的零售商。分析师表示，亚马逊在美国的零售业领域“规模增长最快”，虽然两家均未在季度业绩中公布商品交易总额，但据估计，亚马逊的商品交易总额增长速度快于沃尔玛。\n分析师称，亚马逊2020年的商品交易总额环比增长41%，达到3160亿美元，而沃尔玛2020年的商品交易总额环比增长10%，达到4390亿美元。虽然目前亚马逊的交易总额低于沃尔玛，但按照目前的增速预计，2022年，亚马逊有望超越沃尔玛。\n虽然亚马逊冲劲满满，但美国零售业未来格局如何，还需从更具体方面分析。\n亚马逊vs沃尔玛，全方位对比解析\n线下实体销售\n就线下的实体零售业务而言，沃尔玛长期占据优势。沃尔玛在美国拥有4700多家门店，长久以来已经成为了美国人习惯消费的场所，据估计90%的美国人都住在距离沃尔玛门店不到10英里的地方。\n而同时，亚马逊的实体零售业务正在大步前进。2020年，亚马逊扩大了自己的线下业务，除了开设Whole Foods的500多家门店外，亚马逊还在美国各地开设了大规模的亚马逊生鲜（Amazon Fresh）店。目前，亚马逊在运营11家沃尔玛门店，还有28家正在筹建中，但对于未来的规划，亚马逊没有更进一步的表示。\n从线下业务来看，沃尔玛以其无处不在的门店在实体店领域占据主导地位，尽管亚马逊发展迅速，但仍有很长的路要走。\n电商增长与网络服务\n新冠疫情使得所有商店都进入了数字化增长的快速轨道，沃尔玛和亚马逊均不例外。在2021财年（即2020年2月1日到2021年1月31日），沃尔玛的电商业务增长了79%。而亚马逊则占据了美国所有电商销售额的40%，而且这一数字还在不断增长。\n沃尔玛的新版应用以及新的门店设计将顾客的手机纳入到购物中，模糊了线下购物和网上购物之间的界限。2020年，沃尔玛推出了相当于Amazon Prime会员的“沃尔玛+” （Walmart +）会员，囊括了免费的送货服务、Scan and Go店内购物服务和汽油折扣等各项优惠服务，在其推出的五个月里，沃尔玛收获了大约800万用户。\n而从亚马逊来看，除了线上购物外，亚马逊还在Prime流媒体视频业务上取得了巨大成功，2020年，该业务的用户已超过1.75亿，流媒体时长同比增长了70%以上。另外，网络服务（Amazon Web Services）如今已成为该公司的宠儿，在2020年为亚马逊带来了135亿美元的利润。\n\n在线上业务方面，赢家无疑是亚马逊，它的B2B和B2C业务，以及流媒体都增长成为了行业的领头羊。\n创新发展\n亚马逊和沃尔玛都走在创新的前沿。\n亚马逊方面，仅在去年，亚马逊就宣布了人脸支付、美国联邦航空局批准的无人机送货等创新服务，甚至还创建了美发沙龙——而所有这些都发生在新冠疫情流行期间。\n亚马逊还继续扩展到了新的领域，比如增加药品供应和加强其智能家居设备等。今年5月，亚马逊宣布以84.5亿美元收购米高梅电影公司，以扩展其商业版图。\n此外，亚马逊也一直是行业创新技术和自动化的领导者。2021年，亚马逊投资4000万美元建设新型仓储地，并将首先在马萨诸塞州开设一个35万平方英尺（约合32516.064平方米）的机器人自动运输中心，旨在扩大机器人在供应链中的使用。\n沃尔玛也在订单执行和客户体验等方面不断创新。2020年，沃尔玛推出了Alphabot，该平台可以比人类更快、更准确地提取、打包和发送在线订单。\n此外，沃尔玛还在重新设计1000家门店，预计到2021年底将为顾客创造更精简、更迅捷的购物体验。据悉，新设计为顾客增加了更容易识别的标识，而升级后的App功能则能为顾客指出每件商品的确切位置。\n在创新方面，亚马逊显然更胜一筹。亚马逊以其创新的产品和服务，以及领先的机器人和人工智能技术革新了零售领域，也因此成为了行业中的头部企业。\n沃尔玛“抄作业”：最后一英里追逐战\n正如上文所述，沃尔玛的普遍优势在于线下服务，而亚马逊的优势则在于线上。为了与亚马逊形成抗衡之势，沃尔玛正在尝试借鉴亚马逊的做法，自己建立“最后一英里”（last mile）的独立配送服务。\n路透社称，建立独立配送业务是沃尔玛缩小与亚马逊电商销售差距的举措之一。此前，亚马逊已经招募了大批小企业，用印有该公司标志的货车提供送货服务，以期控制客户的等待时间和成本。\n自去年疫情袭击美国市场以来，美国联合包裹运送服务公司UPS、联邦快递公司FedEx和美国邮政总局USPS一直处于运送包裹的饱和状态，运送费用飙升，迫使各大企业在控制不断飙升的快递成本的同时，寻求新的方式递送快递。\n沃尔玛美国首席执行官约翰•福纳（John Furner）在公司业绩电话会议上表示，沃尔玛已在试用其首款 “最后一英里”送货车，将包裹从沃尔玛门店或配送中心送至顾客家中。\n沃尔玛发言人卡米尔•邓恩（Camille Dunn）说，自今年1月份以来，已有小型货车车队在阿肯色州沃尔玛总部附近的本顿维尔（Bentonville）和罗杰斯（Rogers）地区运送包裹。\n全球物流市场研究公司Logistics Trends & Insights的创始人凯西•莫罗•罗伯森（Cathy Morrow Roberson）表示:“他们（指沃尔玛）建立了一个货运网络，我不能说他们把顾客从亚马逊那里抢走了，但将包裹递送业务保留在内部确实可以带来优势。”\n美国知名投资媒体Motley Fool分析，沃尔玛在配送上具有一定优势：沃尔玛拥有自己独立的门店和配送中心，这意味着它拥有完成在线订单的商店网络和为这些商店供货的物流网络，这样沃尔玛就无需再在商品与仓储空间上花费心思。\n此外，沃尔玛的很大部分销售额仍然来自店内顾客，多年来顾客已经养成了购物习惯，因此，沃尔玛强大的综合性售卖服务能够留住“回头客”，确保足够的客流。\n亚马逊的“野望”：全球市场的建立\n虽然沃尔玛试图通过建立“最后一英里”以确保自己在零售市场的优势，不过，亚马逊似乎将眼光放在了更加广阔的全球市场上。\n\n以亚马逊Prime会员为例，数字研究公司Insider Intelligence的子公司eMarketer估计，其用户在美国以外地区的增长速度要快于美国本土。这可能是因为Prime会员在美国市场已经接近饱和（根据eMarketer的数据，2021年已经约有65%的美国家庭成为Prime会员），而在其他国家，亚马逊可能只是刚刚起步，拥有足够的增长空间。\n据官方资料，2019年，亚马逊Prime Day的新注册用户达到历史最高，并且美国以外的地区注册率越来越高，这对于亚马逊国际销售产生了推动作用。而2021年的Prime Day，则将有20个国家参加，包括中国、墨西哥、日本、意大利、土耳其、沙特阿拉伯和许多其他国家。\n亚马逊通过Prime提供的福利因国家而异。在英国和欧洲部分地区，食品是主要的吸引力，而在新兴市场中， Prim则以视频流媒体作为主要吸引力。亚马逊的投资者关系主管戴夫•菲尔德斯（Dave Fildes）在4月份的业绩电话会议上说：“比如在巴西，用户首先接受视频订阅服务，然后关注到其他比如购物方面，成为更广泛的Prime会员。这是一种让新客户接触亚马逊的方式。”\n菲尔德斯还指出，如果用户使用流媒体观看视频，那么在30天免费试用后，用户就更有可能注册Prime会员。而一旦注册，则很可能会在会员时间内在亚马逊上消费，由此实现亚马逊的全球市场的扩张。\n而相比之下，沃尔玛的全球市场则前景不明——2018年初，沃尔玛暂时放弃了增长缓慢和举步维艰的国际业务，转而寻求增长更快的电商业务。不过，此后，沃尔玛逐渐重塑其国际业务，以160亿美元收购印度电子商务初创企业Flipkart，并投资了加拿大和墨西哥的电商业务。\n2021年1月到3月，沃尔玛国际（Walmart International）公布其收入因“受到了（新冠疫情下）某些市场政府强制限制的负面影响”下降了8.3%，下降至了273亿美元。不过，因为国际电商业务的强劲助力，其市场仍保持了5.1%的增长。\n在这场追逐战中，“美国零售之王”的皇冠会落入谁家？让我们拭目以待。\n文章翻译自：\nBy Cortney Moore, Walmart's 'Deals for Days' event starts one day ahead of Prime Day, FOX Business, https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/walmart-deals-days-amazon-prime\nBlake Morgan, Who Wins The Battle Of Walmart Vs. Amazon?, Forbes,\nhttps://www.forbes.com/sites/blakemorgan/2021/06/14/who-wins-the-battle-of-walmart-vs-amazon/?sh=2537584a5ba7\nLisa Baertlein, Echoing Amazon: Walmart, Target try local package delivery, Reuters,\nhttps://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/echoing-amazon-walmart-target-try-local-package-delivery-2021-05-19/\nMarc Bain, Amazon Prime has signed up most of America—now it wants the rest of the world, Quartz, 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161337560","repostId":"1101656645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101656645","pubTimestamp":1623902534,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1101656645?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 12:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101656645","media":"古三古四","summary":"校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。","content":"<p>教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！</p>\n<p>最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。</p>\n<p>但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。</p>\n<p>各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。</p>\n<p>太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。</p>\n<p>而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。</p>\n<p><b>中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。</b>能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。</p>\n<p>既然是排名赛，本质上就是竞争稀缺资源，那各家家长使出吃奶的劲，花大钱去校外辅导，目的只有一个，在高考的排名战中一举超越竞争对手。</p>\n<p><b>校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。</b></p>\n<p>校内教育，大家接受的东西都一样，那我如何实现弯道超车呢？咱换个战场比，比钱多少，比父母辅导能力，比管理孩子的能力。</p>\n<p>这个厮杀战，不是以班级为单位展开的，而是以省为单位展开的，即使你在班上第一名，也没用，你要拼的是全省第N名。</p>\n<p><b>而指挥这场战役的，是高考。</b></p>\n<p><b>一考定终身。</b></p>\n<p>在北京，有家长花数百万买学区房，有人上培训班年支出超过十万。</p>\n<p>十年前，学大教育一对一辅导曾收取过上百万一个人的天价。</p>\n<p>有人说，中国的家长疯了，为了孩子的教育，这么大的投资值得吗？</p>\n<p>值。非常值。</p>\n<p>如果你考进211，985，大部分家长的投入就基本回来了，因为这样的大学生均年经费都是几十万。比如复旦大学，年支出经费就八十亿，如果按学生数量算，人均一年十六万，但学生只需要交几千块的学费。这个经费还没有计算土地，因为很多大学的土地是免费划拨的。</p>\n<p>你进了好的大学，相当于你可以享受到巨额的财政补贴。</p>\n<p>如果读到博士，总补贴金额没有一百万，也有大几十万。</p>\n<p>这还只是读大学时享受到的。读完大学呢？海外留学，国内公务员，国内名企，一生下来，收入可能与普通大学毕业生相差千万级别以上。</p>\n<p>这么大的产出，当然要拼。</p>\n<p>当然，教育这种东西，投资回报率是一种概率，读北大都可能读成废材，人不是工业品，偶然性因素很多。</p>\n<p>但人决策行动时，都需要面向不确定性，进好学校有好前途，这是大概率。</p>\n<p><b>既然概率高，就值得追求。</b></p>\n<p>那网上取消培训班的要求出现会缓解这种竞争吗？</p>\n<p>有人想象了这么一幅美好的画面，从此孩子们的竞争只发生在学校的课堂里，下了课没作业，然后开心的玩耍，然后父母晚上不再痛苦，不再逼孩子写作业了，不再接送孩子上培训班了。</p>\n<p><b>这美好的一切真的会发生吗？</b></p>\n<p>假设有一天真发生了。</p>\n<p>张三他妈发现，张三班上的同学回家后全在打游戏，看电视，她一下就欣喜若狂，什么是机会？对手放松，那就是我的机会。</p>\n<p>没有校外辅导班，好办，咱把老师请回家，一请请三个。晚上六点到十二点，每个老师两小时，小样，瞧我家张三，那分数蹭蹭蹭地往上涨。</p>\n<p>张三他妈刚刚高兴了半学期。李四妈妈得知了这个消息。</p>\n<p>就你家有钱？你请的起，我就不能请？我能把985的位置让给你吗？不行。</p>\n<p>你天天晚上请，我就天天晚上再加上周六周日全请，全排满。<b>我怎么可能竞争不过你？不就是比钱多吗？比房子大吗？老娘舍得在孩子身上花钱。</b></p>\n<p>再过几天，全校家里有条件的全部都把一对一家教老师请上了，由于需求旺盛，普通的一对一老师的价格从一小时二百上涨到一小时三四百了，优秀的一小时涨到五百了。</p>\n<p>然后家里困难一点的学生家长面对这个情况就傻眼了。</p>\n<p>原来可以上培训班，一个老师教二十个孩子，我一小时八十一百就行了，现在我得花五百一小时，咱家穷实在是花不起啊。</p>\n<p><b>取消培训班，意味着原来小班制教学全部要换为一对一家教模式，这就造成了供给不足。</b></p>\n<p>这时，所有的在一二线城市的大学生们，将疯狂地冲进家庭成为家教老师，哪怕挂科，也要疯狂，月入上万，谁不干？</p>\n<p>而三四线城市的家长将无计可施，就算出的起钱，但优秀的人才都在一二线啊。</p>\n<p>农村高中，就不要想了，集体躺平吧，除了个别天才，你就别指望了。可能当地最好的老师全跑到一二线城市当家教去了，五百一小时，一晚上可能上千的收入，还呆在五线县城和农村做什么？</p>\n<p>这时，中产还有新招。培训老师太贵，<b>我就从需求方转为供给者。</b></p>\n<p>这什么意思呢？打个比方说，如果滴滴一公里涨价到二十块，你去十公里外的公司上班要二百，那你会干什么？你会辞职去开滴滴，你会从消费者转变为供给者。</p>\n<p>中产家庭面对这种情况，会让知识水平较高的妈妈们离职，在家成为专职老师，白天就自学课程，天天在网上听名师讲课，晚上就自己亲自动手教小孩。</p>\n<p>相当于这个妈妈每晚四小时的工作收入一千多。</p>\n<p>鸡娃大战将进入贴身肉搏的程度，以至于不少妈妈们在孩子高考完了，立马就变身职业家教了。</p>\n<p>而富人将轻松用金钱将穷人打败，知识分子中产阶级孕育出一批比学校老师还牛的家长型家教，而四五线小县城农村的学生，则集体躺平，真正实现素质教育，下了课就和父母进行吵架素质训练，教不了，就只能骂了。</p>\n<p>取消培训班真就这么香吗？不见得喔。</p>","source":"lsy1623902592118","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如果全面关停课外培训班会怎么样？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-17 12:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA><strong>古三古四</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！\n最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。\n但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。\n各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。\n太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。\n而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。\n中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。\n既然...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/428db54350354f66d13560331e078b53","relate_stocks":{"01797":"东方甄选","GOTU":"高途","IH":"洪恩","ZME":"掌门教育","DAO":"有道","09901":"新东方-S","COE":"51TALK","TAL":"好未来","EDU":"新东方","YQ":"一起教育科技"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bkyKEz8c0dUQX-BjZQbpJA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101656645","content_text":"教育界发生一件大事，教育培训监管司正式成立！\n最近对教育培训的相关传闻挺多的，大多是谣言。\n但背后对应的是一股汹涌的民意，就是对校外教育培训的强烈不满。\n各类传言下面，点赞率最高的往往是“取缔一切校外教育培训机构”。\n太多家长痛恨补习班了，花钱，费力，全家无比痛苦。\n而家长们对教育的追求，也被评为内卷。\n中国的高考，打的是排名战，不是水平战。能不能上好大学，与你的水平无关，只与你的排名相关。\n既然是排名赛，本质上就是竞争稀缺资源，那各家家长使出吃奶的劲，花大钱去校外辅导，目的只有一个，在高考的排名战中一举超越竞争对手。\n校外教育培训机构，本质上是家长们厮杀的战场。\n校内教育，大家接受的东西都一样，那我如何实现弯道超车呢？咱换个战场比，比钱多少，比父母辅导能力，比管理孩子的能力。\n这个厮杀战，不是以班级为单位展开的，而是以省为单位展开的，即使你在班上第一名，也没用，你要拼的是全省第N名。\n而指挥这场战役的，是高考。\n一考定终身。\n在北京，有家长花数百万买学区房，有人上培训班年支出超过十万。\n十年前，学大教育一对一辅导曾收取过上百万一个人的天价。\n有人说，中国的家长疯了，为了孩子的教育，这么大的投资值得吗？\n值。非常值。\n如果你考进211，985，大部分家长的投入就基本回来了，因为这样的大学生均年经费都是几十万。比如复旦大学，年支出经费就八十亿，如果按学生数量算，人均一年十六万，但学生只需要交几千块的学费。这个经费还没有计算土地，因为很多大学的土地是免费划拨的。\n你进了好的大学，相当于你可以享受到巨额的财政补贴。\n如果读到博士，总补贴金额没有一百万，也有大几十万。\n这还只是读大学时享受到的。读完大学呢？海外留学，国内公务员，国内名企，一生下来，收入可能与普通大学毕业生相差千万级别以上。\n这么大的产出，当然要拼。\n当然，教育这种东西，投资回报率是一种概率，读北大都可能读成废材，人不是工业品，偶然性因素很多。\n但人决策行动时，都需要面向不确定性，进好学校有好前途，这是大概率。\n既然概率高，就值得追求。\n那网上取消培训班的要求出现会缓解这种竞争吗？\n有人想象了这么一幅美好的画面，从此孩子们的竞争只发生在学校的课堂里，下了课没作业，然后开心的玩耍，然后父母晚上不再痛苦，不再逼孩子写作业了，不再接送孩子上培训班了。\n这美好的一切真的会发生吗？\n假设有一天真发生了。\n张三他妈发现，张三班上的同学回家后全在打游戏，看电视，她一下就欣喜若狂，什么是机会？对手放松，那就是我的机会。\n没有校外辅导班，好办，咱把老师请回家，一请请三个。晚上六点到十二点，每个老师两小时，小样，瞧我家张三，那分数蹭蹭蹭地往上涨。\n张三他妈刚刚高兴了半学期。李四妈妈得知了这个消息。\n就你家有钱？你请的起，我就不能请？我能把985的位置让给你吗？不行。\n你天天晚上请，我就天天晚上再加上周六周日全请，全排满。我怎么可能竞争不过你？不就是比钱多吗？比房子大吗？老娘舍得在孩子身上花钱。\n再过几天，全校家里有条件的全部都把一对一家教老师请上了，由于需求旺盛，普通的一对一老师的价格从一小时二百上涨到一小时三四百了，优秀的一小时涨到五百了。\n然后家里困难一点的学生家长面对这个情况就傻眼了。\n原来可以上培训班，一个老师教二十个孩子，我一小时八十一百就行了，现在我得花五百一小时，咱家穷实在是花不起啊。\n取消培训班，意味着原来小班制教学全部要换为一对一家教模式，这就造成了供给不足。\n这时，所有的在一二线城市的大学生们，将疯狂地冲进家庭成为家教老师，哪怕挂科，也要疯狂，月入上万，谁不干？\n而三四线城市的家长将无计可施，就算出的起钱，但优秀的人才都在一二线啊。\n农村高中，就不要想了，集体躺平吧，除了个别天才，你就别指望了。可能当地最好的老师全跑到一二线城市当家教去了，五百一小时，一晚上可能上千的收入，还呆在五线县城和农村做什么？\n这时，中产还有新招。培训老师太贵，我就从需求方转为供给者。\n这什么意思呢？打个比方说，如果滴滴一公里涨价到二十块，你去十公里外的公司上班要二百，那你会干什么？你会辞职去开滴滴，你会从消费者转变为供给者。\n中产家庭面对这种情况，会让知识水平较高的妈妈们离职，在家成为专职老师，白天就自学课程，天天在网上听名师讲课，晚上就自己亲自动手教小孩。\n相当于这个妈妈每晚四小时的工作收入一千多。\n鸡娃大战将进入贴身肉搏的程度，以至于不少妈妈们在孩子高考完了，立马就变身职业家教了。\n而富人将轻松用金钱将穷人打败，知识分子中产阶级孕育出一批比学校老师还牛的家长型家教，而四五线小县城农村的学生，则集体躺平，真正实现素质教育，下了课就和父母进行吵架素质训练，教不了，就只能骂了。\n取消培训班真就这么香吗？不见得喔。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160880656,"gmtCreate":1623779728775,"gmtModify":1703819301888,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160880656","repostId":"1149738275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149738275","pubTimestamp":1623769206,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149738275?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对冲基金投资路线图：5年内加密货币将占总资产的7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149738275","media":"金十数据","summary":"调查预计，加密货币行业的数字货币投资规模可能达到3120亿美元。\n\n在数字资产价格大幅下跌以及惩罚性新规计划出台后，一项对数字资产的新调查显示，对冲基金计划到2026年将大幅增加其对加密货币的敞口。\n","content":"<blockquote>\n 调查预计，加密货币行业的数字货币投资规模可能达到3120亿美元。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在数字资产价格大幅下跌以及惩罚性新规计划出台后，一项对数字资产的新调查显示，对冲基金计划到2026年将大幅增加其对加密货币的敞口。</p>\n<p>全球100家对冲基金的CFO在基金管理公司Intertrust一项调查中表示，<b>5年后加密货币在其资产中所占比例平均可能将达到7.2%。</b></p>\n<p>根据数据集团Preqin对对冲基金行业总规模的预测，Intertrust估计，如果这个比例适用于整个加密行业，<b>那相当于总计约3120亿美元的加密货币资产</b>。<b>17%的受访者预计其持有的加密货币将超过10%。</b></p>\n<p>对冲基金对加密货币的兴趣大幅上升。虽然目前尚不清楚该行业的持仓情况，但一些知名基金经理已将少量资金投入加密货币，他们被飙升的价格和该市场的低效，希望可以进行套利：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 曼恩集团(Man Group)旗下的堪称全球量化CTA策略鼻祖的子公司AHL在交易比特币期货文艺复兴科技(Renaissance Technologies)去年表示，其旗舰基金Medallion可能投资比特币期货对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)买入了比特币布勒旺霍华德(Brevan Howard)则将一小部分资金转移到了加密货币领域其联合创始人、亿万富翁艾伦·霍华德(Alan Howard)是该行业的主要支持者\n</blockquote>\n<p>比特币为美国基金公司SkyBridge Capital今年的收益贡献最大。该公司由前白宫通讯主管安东尼•斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)创立，从去年年底开始买入比特币，而在今年4月，就在比特币价格下跌之前，公司减持了比特币。</p>\n<p>Quilter Cheviot投资管理公司的执行董事David Miller表示，对冲基金“不仅充分意识到了加密货币的风险，而且看到了其长期潜力”。</p>\n<p><b>对冲基金表现出的日益高涨的热情，与更为传统的资产管理公司对加密货币普遍存在的怀疑形成了鲜明对比。</b>许多资产管理公司仍对加密货币的巨大波动性和它们将受监管的不确定性感到担忧。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>)和咨询公司奥纬咨询(Oliver Wyman)在最近一份有关资产管理的报告中表示：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “目前，加密货币投资仍仅限于风险承受能力较高的客户，即便如此，投资在可投资资产中所占比例通常也很低。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>但是，一些对冲基金也仍保持警惕。今年早些时候，保罗•辛格(Paul Singer)的埃利奥特管理公司(Elliott Management)致信投资者，称加密货币可能成为“史上最大的金融骗局”。</p>\n<p>今年，加密货币又经历了一次疯狂的发展。比特币从去年年底的不到2.9万美元飙升至今年4月的6.3万美元以上，但此后回落至4万多美元。</p>\n<p>尽管加密货币的未来监管仍不明朗，但巴塞尔银行监管委员会(Basel Committee on Banking Supervision)上周表示，加密货币应遵守所有资产中最严格的银行资本规定。</p>\n<p>Intertrust的调查还显示，<b>所有在北美、欧洲和英国接受调查的高管预计，他们的投资组合中至少有1%是加密货币。受访者中包括全球平均管理72亿美元资产的基金的首席财务官。</b></p>\n<p>北美基金的平均投资预期为10.6%，而英国和欧洲基金的平均投资预期为6.8%。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对冲基金投资路线图：5年内加密货币将占总资产的7%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对冲基金投资路线图：5年内加密货币将占总资产的7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 23:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76074><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>调查预计，加密货币行业的数字货币投资规模可能达到3120亿美元。\n\n在数字资产价格大幅下跌以及惩罚性新规计划出台后，一项对数字资产的新调查显示，对冲基金计划到2026年将大幅增加其对加密货币的敞口。\n全球100家对冲基金的CFO在基金管理公司Intertrust一项调查中表示，5年后加密货币在其资产中所占比例平均可能将达到7.2%。\n根据数据集团Preqin对对冲基金行业总规模的预测，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76074\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90066fb83182dc8266f1ac61958a4640","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76074","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149738275","content_text":"调查预计，加密货币行业的数字货币投资规模可能达到3120亿美元。\n\n在数字资产价格大幅下跌以及惩罚性新规计划出台后，一项对数字资产的新调查显示，对冲基金计划到2026年将大幅增加其对加密货币的敞口。\n全球100家对冲基金的CFO在基金管理公司Intertrust一项调查中表示，5年后加密货币在其资产中所占比例平均可能将达到7.2%。\n根据数据集团Preqin对对冲基金行业总规模的预测，Intertrust估计，如果这个比例适用于整个加密行业，那相当于总计约3120亿美元的加密货币资产。17%的受访者预计其持有的加密货币将超过10%。\n对冲基金对加密货币的兴趣大幅上升。虽然目前尚不清楚该行业的持仓情况，但一些知名基金经理已将少量资金投入加密货币，他们被飙升的价格和该市场的低效，希望可以进行套利：\n\n 曼恩集团(Man Group)旗下的堪称全球量化CTA策略鼻祖的子公司AHL在交易比特币期货文艺复兴科技(Renaissance Technologies)去年表示，其旗舰基金Medallion可能投资比特币期货对冲基金经理保罗·都铎·琼斯(Paul Tudor Jones)买入了比特币布勒旺霍华德(Brevan Howard)则将一小部分资金转移到了加密货币领域其联合创始人、亿万富翁艾伦·霍华德(Alan Howard)是该行业的主要支持者\n\n比特币为美国基金公司SkyBridge Capital今年的收益贡献最大。该公司由前白宫通讯主管安东尼•斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)创立，从去年年底开始买入比特币，而在今年4月，就在比特币价格下跌之前，公司减持了比特币。\nQuilter Cheviot投资管理公司的执行董事David Miller表示，对冲基金“不仅充分意识到了加密货币的风险，而且看到了其长期潜力”。\n对冲基金表现出的日益高涨的热情，与更为传统的资产管理公司对加密货币普遍存在的怀疑形成了鲜明对比。许多资产管理公司仍对加密货币的巨大波动性和它们将受监管的不确定性感到担忧。\n摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和咨询公司奥纬咨询(Oliver Wyman)在最近一份有关资产管理的报告中表示：\n\n “目前，加密货币投资仍仅限于风险承受能力较高的客户，即便如此，投资在可投资资产中所占比例通常也很低。”\n\n但是，一些对冲基金也仍保持警惕。今年早些时候，保罗•辛格(Paul Singer)的埃利奥特管理公司(Elliott Management)致信投资者，称加密货币可能成为“史上最大的金融骗局”。\n今年，加密货币又经历了一次疯狂的发展。比特币从去年年底的不到2.9万美元飙升至今年4月的6.3万美元以上，但此后回落至4万多美元。\n尽管加密货币的未来监管仍不明朗，但巴塞尔银行监管委员会(Basel Committee on Banking Supervision)上周表示，加密货币应遵守所有资产中最严格的银行资本规定。\nIntertrust的调查还显示，所有在北美、欧洲和英国接受调查的高管预计，他们的投资组合中至少有1%是加密货币。受访者中包括全球平均管理72亿美元资产的基金的首席财务官。\n北美基金的平均投资预期为10.6%，而英国和欧洲基金的平均投资预期为6.8%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160880174,"gmtCreate":1623779696498,"gmtModify":1703819301726,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160880174","repostId":"1188387561","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188387561","pubTimestamp":1623770411,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188387561?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"资本一跃，东鹏特饮失去黄金时代","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188387561","media":"百略网","summary":"每一个万亿赛道的细分领域都是一个暗流涌动的江湖。\n饮料最为典型，广告学教材上最经久不衰的案例就是可口可乐与百事的百年营销大战。一瓶饮用水的前世今生即能谱写一段“跨越时空的爱恋”，而功能饮料市场上半场的","content":"<p>每一个万亿赛道的细分领域都是一个暗流涌动的江湖。</p>\n<p>饮料最为典型，广告学教材上最经久不衰的案例就是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>与百事的百年营销大战。一瓶饮用水的前世今生即能谱写一段“跨越时空的爱恋”，而功能饮料市场上半场的主要看点则是来自红牛的商标争夺案，下半场就是东鹏特饮的上市路。</p>\n<p>2021年一月份中国红牛在“红牛系列商标”归属权问题上再次失利。最高院就“红牛系列商标”权属纠纷一案判决结果为驳回合资公司上诉，维持北京市高级人民法院2019年11月25日作出的一审判决。</p>\n<p>同年五月份，功能饮料市场迎来第一股，敲钟的是以林木勤为掌门人的东鹏特饮集团，中国红牛甚至来不及“黯然神伤”。只能眼看着东鹏特饮“起高楼、宴宾客”。截至6月15日，东鹏特饮股价连日攀升，已经由开盘价的55.52/股涨至209.10/股，市值翻了四倍，轻松突破800亿的关口。</p>\n<p>旷日持久的商标案在法律意义上已然尘埃落定，但并没有给红牛指明方向，反而给东鹏特饮注入一剂“强心剂”，只不过，内因决定着事物的性质和发展方向，东鹏特饮盯着红牛的“追随者策略”很难再奏效了。</p>\n<p>信奉实用主义理念的投资者以巴菲特为偶像，把“长期主义”挂在嘴边，“低PE”+“成熟的行业巨头”比长坡厚雪的赛道更受欢迎，所以A股有了“平平无奇四杯水”（茅台、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300999\">金龙鱼</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">农夫山泉</a>、海天酱油），但这个模板显然套不进东鹏特饮的案例中，摘不掉“千年老二”帽子的东鹏特饮太着急想要“功能饮料第一股”的名头，但现实是离成为“行业巨头”这段路不能靠上市加速完成。</p>\n<p>食品饮料板块需要呈现的确定性东鹏特饮只完成了一半，市场知名度、渠道铺设、产品定位一环扣一环，不靠龙头老大地位说话的东鹏特饮靠什么敲开证交所的大门？</p>\n<p><b>没有渠道护城河</b></p>\n<p>单一品牌不是东鹏特饮的致命伤，“独木难支”的困境在每个软饮品牌上都能看到，但难以补足的渠道短板是东鹏特饮掩盖不了的硬伤。</p>\n<p>经销商和终端的搭建不是一朝一夕能够完成的，无限拉长的时间周期中，主要方式有四种：</p>\n<p>第一，营销宣传，东鹏选择了谢霆锋为代言人，广告词照搬红牛，完成了初期的品牌搭建；</p>\n<p>第二，事件冲击，冠名各大赛事是功能饮料最常用的手段，前有红牛从常规比赛到极限运动的赞助，后有东鹏特饮ICC、世界杯、中超的三连招，赛事所到之处，就是一次终端网络的迭代升级；</p>\n<p>第三，促销活动，各家奇招频出；</p>\n<p>第四，增加网点、排面，但红牛的布局借助先发优势全国遍地开花，东鹏特饮“追随其后”也只能做到广州独大。</p>\n<p>中国红牛的生产基地北至辽宁、银川，南至广州各地，产能布局的广泛是红牛深陷商标官司依然坐稳行业龙头宝座的渠道王牌。与之相反的，据数据显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/605499\">东鹏饮料</a>董事长林木勤所控股的十二家处于“开业”状态的公司，十一家注册位置在广东或深圳，盘踞广东或许是东鹏特饮的二十年来最大的“成就”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61a6631a09f0ef31f592395a1ff454\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>产能不够，招募来凑。招股书显示，东鹏饮料销售区域高度集中在南方市场。2018年-2020年，其在广东地区销售额分别占主营业务收入的61.10%、60.12%和55.74%。广东、广西、华中、华东市场合计收入占比约九成。</p>\n<p>市场集中在“秦岭-淮河线”以南，北上是东鹏特饮的攻坚战。东鹏饮料在招股书中披露，此次拟募资金额共超过17.3亿元，其中超过50%的资金将用于华南、重庆和南宁二期的生产基地建设。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8017f3ec21679da7f5cfe8af661c58bb\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>图源：虎嗅</p>\n<p>但另一方面，多项数字表明，东鹏饮料在报告期内的实际产能利用率均不超过七成。招股说明书显示，2018至2020年，东鹏饮料总产量分别为64.84万吨、101.61和123.38万吨，产能利用率分别是62.03%、66.38%和69.61%。</p>\n<p>一方面扩大产能，一方面消化不了存货，把一系列问题打包上市，资本的答案显然不是最优解。</p>\n<p><b>弯道超车的另一面</b></p>\n<p>坐不了冷板凳的人也吃不上热豆腐。急吼吼的上市，第一股的地位赢不来第一的市场份额，反而带来证监会对其财务造假的认证风波。</p>\n<p>据凤凰网财经发现，东鹏饮料的持股股东，也同时出现在了其前几大客户或经销商的股东名单之中。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，鲲鹏投资持有东鹏饮料7%以上的股权，仅次于林木勤和君正投资，位列第三大股东；与此同时，东鹏饮料的实际控制人林木勤同时是鲲鹏投资的第三大股东，持股比例在9%左右。</p>\n<p>另外，东鹏饮料的前几大经销商中，东莞市金愉食品有限公司及其关联方的实际控制人林景照也是鲲鹏投资的合伙人之一，持股比例在4.5%左右；深圳市安尔雅供应链管理有限公司及其关联方的实际控制人郑细强也是鲲鹏投资的合伙人之一，持股比例在1.8%左右。这意味着，经销商实控人也是公司大股东合伙人，这两家经销商在2019年的销售收入都翻倍。</p>\n<p>基于和经销商交割不清的“瓜田李下”，今年1月21日，证监会在官网上发布公告，要求东鹏饮料对“与经销商是否存在实质或潜在关联关系，是否存在经销商为员工或前员工控制的情形；是否存在经销商配合压货、囤货从而虚增收入的情形”等问题作出说明。</p>\n<p>向经销商示好让利，本质无外乎利益绑定，饮料产品的线下依赖症在东鹏特饮身上表现更甚。东鹏饮料于2017年4月、10月两次向全体股东分配现金股利共8792.79万元，2019年4月派发现金股利1.4亿元。在递交招股书的半个月前，2020年4月9日，东鹏饮料派发现金股利3.6亿元，超过了此前三年的分红总额。</p>\n<p>招致问询的东鹏饮料对存货周转率高的解释是，符合“以销定产”生产模式的特征，反映了公司良好的存货管控能力。2020年，东鹏的存货周转率为10.88，而行业均值为5.65，之前两年的数据也基本为行业平均水平的两倍左右。</p>\n<p>追求存货高周转率的同时，东鹏特饮的毛利率也居高不下。</p>\n<p>事实上，特殊用途饮料比普通饮料拥有更大的定价空间，瓶装水的定价普遍在2元左右，容量是500ml。但相同规格的功能饮料价格要高出50%到200%，利润要超出1倍到3倍。基于此，厂商也有更强烈的意愿进行市场培育和推广。一旦形成品牌影响力，这部分利润可以看作是头部品牌能吃许多年的大蛋糕。所以2020年，中国红牛年销售额达到228.15亿元，同比增长约5亿元，是东鹏饮料同期营收的4.5倍，与市场占有率的比值保持一致。</p>\n<p>基于此，可以得出判断：东鹏特饮的高毛利率只不过是行业的正常水平，而高存货周转率代表的“管控能力”并未有所体现。</p>\n<p><b>功能饮料，路在何方？</b></p>\n<p>瓶装水有新王和旧王之分，“功能饮料”的概念却并不在国家标准体系里。</p>\n<p>国家标准《软饮料分类》中没有能量饮料这一分类，也没有“功能性饮料”这一称谓，只有“特殊用途饮料”的提法。</p>\n<p>标准给“特殊用途饮料”下的定义是：通过调整饮料中天然营养素的成分和含量比例，以适应某些特殊人群营养需要的饮品，包括运动饮料、营养素饮料和其他特殊用途饮料三类。像红牛、乐虎等功能饮料，都属于“营养素饮料”这一亚分类当中。</p>\n<p>此外，东鹏特饮最常用的广告词，依据的不是饮料食品的管理规定，而是保健食品管理办法。该规定强调，只有取得保健品批文的产品才可明确提出“提神、抗疲劳”等功效，市面上未取得保健品批文的产品多主打“活力”、“能量”，甚至强调口感。口感能玩出来的花样更多，但东鹏特饮的研发显然在口感上耗不起。</p>\n<p>根据欧睿数据显示，2020 年能量饮料市场零售规模为 448 亿，对应出厂端市场规模约 350 亿，2015-2020 年复合增速为 9.2%，远高于软饮料整体 3.2%的增速水平， 且高增有望延续。</p>\n<p>有上市背书的东鹏特饮无疑能在这条赛道占据一席之地，但在增速期能吃到多少红利还犹未可知。毕竟自1995年，红牛以一己之力打开中国饮料的这条新赛道后，这场红海战争已经厮杀更猛，功能饮料的产品裂变也近在眼前。</p>\n<p>在广州地区的一家独大，由广州辐射全国的布局，想带飞相当吃力。谈理想离不开“深耕”一词的东鹏特饮走的还是薄利多销的差异化路线。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，2018年-2020年，东鹏饮料营收分别为30.37亿元、42.08亿元和49.59亿元，同期归母净利润为2.16亿元、5.71亿元和8.12亿元。</p>\n<p>能量饮料作为东鹏饮料的主导产品，2018-2020年度分别贡献收入28.85亿元、40.03亿元及46.55亿元，占东鹏饮料总收入的94.99％、95.11％及93.88％，营收占比均在九成以上。</p>\n<p>东鹏特饮在招股书中表示，公司近年来陆续推出多种植物饮料、乳味饮料等系列产品。2020年，在气泡水和0糖概念的风口下，东鹏饮料还新推出了含气的“东鹏加気”，以及“无糖型”的“东鹏0糖特饮”。“追随者策略”追到气泡水家门口，但想要“乱拳打死老师傅”，东鹏特饮还需要从长计议。毕竟这个多元化产品战略目前尚未收到成效，整体销售占比不足7%。</p>\n<p>“树大招风”是红牛引来商标官司的外在原因，而东鹏特饮上市饱受诟病的原因更直接——基本功不扎实。功能性饮料市场谁都想来分杯羹，咖啡三顿半、气泡水、甚至袋泡茶都能分走一部分中间消费群体。东鹏特饮想要避免被市场淹没，能做的不应该只是盯着资本市场的钱。</p>\n<p>上市止不了东鹏特饮在北方市场的痛，低价、渠道、知名度都打不开的北方市场。以东莞辐射广东，以广东带动全国的战略还只停留在第一步。</p>\n<p>资本从来不会雪中送炭，有的只是锦上添花和落井下石。不想做千年老二的东鹏特饮或许也需要自饮一杯，醒来接着拼。</p>","source":"lsy1600833227953","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n资本一跃，东鹏特饮失去黄金时代\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 23:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-_NXf5hReHqhUbDx1L3O1Q><strong>百略网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>每一个万亿赛道的细分领域都是一个暗流涌动的江湖。\n饮料最为典型，广告学教材上最经久不衰的案例就是可口可乐与百事的百年营销大战。一瓶饮用水的前世今生即能谱写一段“跨越时空的爱恋”，而功能饮料市场上半场的主要看点则是来自红牛的商标争夺案，下半场就是东鹏特饮的上市路。\n2021年一月份中国红牛在“红牛系列商标”归属权问题上再次失利。最高院就“红牛系列商标”权属纠纷一案判决结果为驳回合资公司上诉，维持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-_NXf5hReHqhUbDx1L3O1Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebecb476e25e53829c67f6d62ce20df5","relate_stocks":{"605499":"东鹏饮料"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-_NXf5hReHqhUbDx1L3O1Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188387561","content_text":"每一个万亿赛道的细分领域都是一个暗流涌动的江湖。\n饮料最为典型，广告学教材上最经久不衰的案例就是可口可乐与百事的百年营销大战。一瓶饮用水的前世今生即能谱写一段“跨越时空的爱恋”，而功能饮料市场上半场的主要看点则是来自红牛的商标争夺案，下半场就是东鹏特饮的上市路。\n2021年一月份中国红牛在“红牛系列商标”归属权问题上再次失利。最高院就“红牛系列商标”权属纠纷一案判决结果为驳回合资公司上诉，维持北京市高级人民法院2019年11月25日作出的一审判决。\n同年五月份，功能饮料市场迎来第一股，敲钟的是以林木勤为掌门人的东鹏特饮集团，中国红牛甚至来不及“黯然神伤”。只能眼看着东鹏特饮“起高楼、宴宾客”。截至6月15日，东鹏特饮股价连日攀升，已经由开盘价的55.52/股涨至209.10/股，市值翻了四倍，轻松突破800亿的关口。\n旷日持久的商标案在法律意义上已然尘埃落定，但并没有给红牛指明方向，反而给东鹏特饮注入一剂“强心剂”，只不过，内因决定着事物的性质和发展方向，东鹏特饮盯着红牛的“追随者策略”很难再奏效了。\n信奉实用主义理念的投资者以巴菲特为偶像，把“长期主义”挂在嘴边，“低PE”+“成熟的行业巨头”比长坡厚雪的赛道更受欢迎，所以A股有了“平平无奇四杯水”（茅台、金龙鱼、农夫山泉、海天酱油），但这个模板显然套不进东鹏特饮的案例中，摘不掉“千年老二”帽子的东鹏特饮太着急想要“功能饮料第一股”的名头，但现实是离成为“行业巨头”这段路不能靠上市加速完成。\n食品饮料板块需要呈现的确定性东鹏特饮只完成了一半，市场知名度、渠道铺设、产品定位一环扣一环，不靠龙头老大地位说话的东鹏特饮靠什么敲开证交所的大门？\n没有渠道护城河\n单一品牌不是东鹏特饮的致命伤，“独木难支”的困境在每个软饮品牌上都能看到，但难以补足的渠道短板是东鹏特饮掩盖不了的硬伤。\n经销商和终端的搭建不是一朝一夕能够完成的，无限拉长的时间周期中，主要方式有四种：\n第一，营销宣传，东鹏选择了谢霆锋为代言人，广告词照搬红牛，完成了初期的品牌搭建；\n第二，事件冲击，冠名各大赛事是功能饮料最常用的手段，前有红牛从常规比赛到极限运动的赞助，后有东鹏特饮ICC、世界杯、中超的三连招，赛事所到之处，就是一次终端网络的迭代升级；\n第三，促销活动，各家奇招频出；\n第四，增加网点、排面，但红牛的布局借助先发优势全国遍地开花，东鹏特饮“追随其后”也只能做到广州独大。\n中国红牛的生产基地北至辽宁、银川，南至广州各地，产能布局的广泛是红牛深陷商标官司依然坐稳行业龙头宝座的渠道王牌。与之相反的，据数据显示，东鹏饮料董事长林木勤所控股的十二家处于“开业”状态的公司，十一家注册位置在广东或深圳，盘踞广东或许是东鹏特饮的二十年来最大的“成就”。\n\n产能不够，招募来凑。招股书显示，东鹏饮料销售区域高度集中在南方市场。2018年-2020年，其在广东地区销售额分别占主营业务收入的61.10%、60.12%和55.74%。广东、广西、华中、华东市场合计收入占比约九成。\n市场集中在“秦岭-淮河线”以南，北上是东鹏特饮的攻坚战。东鹏饮料在招股书中披露，此次拟募资金额共超过17.3亿元，其中超过50%的资金将用于华南、重庆和南宁二期的生产基地建设。\n\n图源：虎嗅\n但另一方面，多项数字表明，东鹏饮料在报告期内的实际产能利用率均不超过七成。招股说明书显示，2018至2020年，东鹏饮料总产量分别为64.84万吨、101.61和123.38万吨，产能利用率分别是62.03%、66.38%和69.61%。\n一方面扩大产能，一方面消化不了存货，把一系列问题打包上市，资本的答案显然不是最优解。\n弯道超车的另一面\n坐不了冷板凳的人也吃不上热豆腐。急吼吼的上市，第一股的地位赢不来第一的市场份额，反而带来证监会对其财务造假的认证风波。\n据凤凰网财经发现，东鹏饮料的持股股东，也同时出现在了其前几大客户或经销商的股东名单之中。\n招股书显示，鲲鹏投资持有东鹏饮料7%以上的股权，仅次于林木勤和君正投资，位列第三大股东；与此同时，东鹏饮料的实际控制人林木勤同时是鲲鹏投资的第三大股东，持股比例在9%左右。\n另外，东鹏饮料的前几大经销商中，东莞市金愉食品有限公司及其关联方的实际控制人林景照也是鲲鹏投资的合伙人之一，持股比例在4.5%左右；深圳市安尔雅供应链管理有限公司及其关联方的实际控制人郑细强也是鲲鹏投资的合伙人之一，持股比例在1.8%左右。这意味着，经销商实控人也是公司大股东合伙人，这两家经销商在2019年的销售收入都翻倍。\n基于和经销商交割不清的“瓜田李下”，今年1月21日，证监会在官网上发布公告，要求东鹏饮料对“与经销商是否存在实质或潜在关联关系，是否存在经销商为员工或前员工控制的情形；是否存在经销商配合压货、囤货从而虚增收入的情形”等问题作出说明。\n向经销商示好让利，本质无外乎利益绑定，饮料产品的线下依赖症在东鹏特饮身上表现更甚。东鹏饮料于2017年4月、10月两次向全体股东分配现金股利共8792.79万元，2019年4月派发现金股利1.4亿元。在递交招股书的半个月前，2020年4月9日，东鹏饮料派发现金股利3.6亿元，超过了此前三年的分红总额。\n招致问询的东鹏饮料对存货周转率高的解释是，符合“以销定产”生产模式的特征，反映了公司良好的存货管控能力。2020年，东鹏的存货周转率为10.88，而行业均值为5.65，之前两年的数据也基本为行业平均水平的两倍左右。\n追求存货高周转率的同时，东鹏特饮的毛利率也居高不下。\n事实上，特殊用途饮料比普通饮料拥有更大的定价空间，瓶装水的定价普遍在2元左右，容量是500ml。但相同规格的功能饮料价格要高出50%到200%，利润要超出1倍到3倍。基于此，厂商也有更强烈的意愿进行市场培育和推广。一旦形成品牌影响力，这部分利润可以看作是头部品牌能吃许多年的大蛋糕。所以2020年，中国红牛年销售额达到228.15亿元，同比增长约5亿元，是东鹏饮料同期营收的4.5倍，与市场占有率的比值保持一致。\n基于此，可以得出判断：东鹏特饮的高毛利率只不过是行业的正常水平，而高存货周转率代表的“管控能力”并未有所体现。\n功能饮料，路在何方？\n瓶装水有新王和旧王之分，“功能饮料”的概念却并不在国家标准体系里。\n国家标准《软饮料分类》中没有能量饮料这一分类，也没有“功能性饮料”这一称谓，只有“特殊用途饮料”的提法。\n标准给“特殊用途饮料”下的定义是：通过调整饮料中天然营养素的成分和含量比例，以适应某些特殊人群营养需要的饮品，包括运动饮料、营养素饮料和其他特殊用途饮料三类。像红牛、乐虎等功能饮料，都属于“营养素饮料”这一亚分类当中。\n此外，东鹏特饮最常用的广告词，依据的不是饮料食品的管理规定，而是保健食品管理办法。该规定强调，只有取得保健品批文的产品才可明确提出“提神、抗疲劳”等功效，市面上未取得保健品批文的产品多主打“活力”、“能量”，甚至强调口感。口感能玩出来的花样更多，但东鹏特饮的研发显然在口感上耗不起。\n根据欧睿数据显示，2020 年能量饮料市场零售规模为 448 亿，对应出厂端市场规模约 350 亿，2015-2020 年复合增速为 9.2%，远高于软饮料整体 3.2%的增速水平， 且高增有望延续。\n有上市背书的东鹏特饮无疑能在这条赛道占据一席之地，但在增速期能吃到多少红利还犹未可知。毕竟自1995年，红牛以一己之力打开中国饮料的这条新赛道后，这场红海战争已经厮杀更猛，功能饮料的产品裂变也近在眼前。\n在广州地区的一家独大，由广州辐射全国的布局，想带飞相当吃力。谈理想离不开“深耕”一词的东鹏特饮走的还是薄利多销的差异化路线。\n招股书显示，2018年-2020年，东鹏饮料营收分别为30.37亿元、42.08亿元和49.59亿元，同期归母净利润为2.16亿元、5.71亿元和8.12亿元。\n能量饮料作为东鹏饮料的主导产品，2018-2020年度分别贡献收入28.85亿元、40.03亿元及46.55亿元，占东鹏饮料总收入的94.99％、95.11％及93.88％，营收占比均在九成以上。\n东鹏特饮在招股书中表示，公司近年来陆续推出多种植物饮料、乳味饮料等系列产品。2020年，在气泡水和0糖概念的风口下，东鹏饮料还新推出了含气的“东鹏加気”，以及“无糖型”的“东鹏0糖特饮”。“追随者策略”追到气泡水家门口，但想要“乱拳打死老师傅”，东鹏特饮还需要从长计议。毕竟这个多元化产品战略目前尚未收到成效，整体销售占比不足7%。\n“树大招风”是红牛引来商标官司的外在原因，而东鹏特饮上市饱受诟病的原因更直接——基本功不扎实。功能性饮料市场谁都想来分杯羹，咖啡三顿半、气泡水、甚至袋泡茶都能分走一部分中间消费群体。东鹏特饮想要避免被市场淹没，能做的不应该只是盯着资本市场的钱。\n上市止不了东鹏特饮在北方市场的痛，低价、渠道、知名度都打不开的北方市场。以东莞辐射广东，以广东带动全国的战略还只停留在第一步。\n资本从来不会雪中送炭，有的只是锦上添花和落井下石。不想做千年老二的东鹏特饮或许也需要自饮一杯，醒来接着拼。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160880959,"gmtCreate":1623779674471,"gmtModify":1703819301242,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160880959","repostId":"1134804844","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":801801703,"gmtCreate":1627494196502,"gmtModify":1703491125095,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like my comment","listText":"like my comment","text":"like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801801703","repostId":"2154494900","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147685678,"gmtCreate":1626356335394,"gmtModify":1703758542154,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"please like my comment","listText":"please like my comment","text":"please like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/147685678","repostId":"1130429804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130429804","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626355873,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130429804?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-15 21:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘：美股低开，台积电大跌3%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130429804","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月15日（周四）美股开盘，道琼斯指数下跌120.74点，跌幅0.35%，报34812.49点；标普500指数下跌9.58点，跌幅0.22%，报4364.80点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌14.9点，跌幅0","content":"<p>7月15日（周四）美股开盘，道琼斯指数下跌120.74点，跌幅0.35%，报34812.49点；标普500指数下跌9.58点，跌幅0.22%，报4364.80点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌14.9点，跌幅0.10%，报14630.0点。WSB热门概念股、银行股、石油股普跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4ced48f916b1059de8314c8b253c0c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>开跌3%，公司第二季度净利润和毛利率不及预期，预计供应紧缺将持续至明年。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨1.7%，昨日有报道称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>考虑互相开放生态系统。</p>\n<p>奈飞涨0.8%，奈飞今日称将在流媒体平台上推出游戏内容。</p>\n<p>数码影院公司Cinedigm涨21.8%，公司第四财季流媒体频道收入增长197%。</p>\n<p>美股银行股普跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">纽约梅隆银行</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>跌1.2%，花旗集团跌0.8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>跌0.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跌0.5%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：美股低开，台积电大跌3%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：美股低开，台积电大跌3%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-15 21:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月15日（周四）美股开盘，道琼斯指数下跌120.74点，跌幅0.35%，报34812.49点；标普500指数下跌9.58点，跌幅0.22%，报4364.80点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌14.9点，跌幅0.10%，报14630.0点。WSB热门概念股、银行股、石油股普跌。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4ced48f916b1059de8314c8b253c0c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>开跌3%，公司第二季度净利润和毛利率不及预期，预计供应紧缺将持续至明年。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨1.7%，昨日有报道称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>考虑互相开放生态系统。</p>\n<p>奈飞涨0.8%，奈飞今日称将在流媒体平台上推出游戏内容。</p>\n<p>数码影院公司Cinedigm涨21.8%，公司第四财季流媒体频道收入增长197%。</p>\n<p>美股银行股普跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BK\">纽约梅隆银行</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>跌1.2%，花旗集团跌0.8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>跌0.7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>跌0.5%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TSM":"台积电","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130429804","content_text":"7月15日（周四）美股开盘，道琼斯指数下跌120.74点，跌幅0.35%，报34812.49点；标普500指数下跌9.58点，跌幅0.22%，报4364.80点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌14.9点，跌幅0.10%，报14630.0点。WSB热门概念股、银行股、石油股普跌。\n\n台积电开跌3%，公司第二季度净利润和毛利率不及预期，预计供应紧缺将持续至明年。\n阿里巴巴涨1.7%，昨日有报道称，阿里巴巴和腾讯考虑互相开放生态系统。\n奈飞涨0.8%，奈飞今日称将在流媒体平台上推出游戏内容。\n数码影院公司Cinedigm涨21.8%，公司第四财季流媒体频道收入增长197%。\n美股银行股普跌。纽约梅隆银行跌超2%，美国银行跌1.2%，花旗集团跌0.8%，摩根士丹利跌0.7%，摩根大通跌0.5%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893638299,"gmtCreate":1628258775711,"gmtModify":1703504139728,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like my comment","listText":"like my comment","text":"like my comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893638299","repostId":"2157739460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117493356,"gmtCreate":1623155554975,"gmtModify":1704197203044,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment pls","listText":"like and comment pls","text":"like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/117493356","repostId":"1135816983","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135816983","pubTimestamp":1623153812,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1135816983?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-08 20:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135816983","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.\n\nThe summer lull is real for investors right now, as ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Critical information for the U.S. trading day.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.</p>\n<p>With equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.</p>\n<p>They should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides our<b>call of the day</b>.</p>\n<p>Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.</p>\n<p>For example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c7d981e160fe9dea266dbe88c5eb97\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"490\"><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p>\n<p>So should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.</p>\n<p>Paulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ad9970b8d52f5524ef4da54113986a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"461\"><i>The Leuthold Group</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13d5f3bc8075fad7b17676c51ffadaed\" tg-width=\"1259\" tg-height=\"929\">The Leuthold Group</p>\n<p>And the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.</p>\n<p>“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.</p>\n<p>He expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”</p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin blues and billionaires and taxes</b></p>\n<p>U.S. stock futuresES00,0.14%NQ00,0.49%YM00,-0.06%are trading mixed, with European stocksSXXP,0.35%flat, while Asian marketspulled back. OilCL.1,-0.92%is slipping, the dollarDXY,0.14%is up and bitcoinBTCUSD,-3.83%and other cryptocurrencies continue to fall. Some note digital assets sagging since the news that U.S. authoritiesmanaged to recover most of the bitcoin usedto pay a ransomware attack on a key energy pipeline.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/855f10c42119dd8220686f093a8dc34d\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"529\">On the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business index fell for the first time this year, ashiring woes hit small-business owners. Still ahead is the trade deficit report and job openings survey.</p>\n<p>Major global websites including Amazon.com, CNN and Bloomberghave been hit by outageson Tuesday. Shares of FastlyFSLY,+7.17%fell briefly after the cloud platform said it hasidentified a problemand was working on a fix.</p>\n<p>Billionaires including AmazonAMZN,-0.26%Chief Executive Jeff Bezos and Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk at times have sidestepped federal income taxes,a new report says.</p>\n<p>Jerome Guillen, longtime president of TeslaTSLA,+1.01%Heavy Trucking, apparentlyleft the electric-car makerlast week.</p>\n<p>Back in May 2020, a U.S. government report on COVID-19 origins wasurging an investigation into the theorythat it leaked from a Wuhan laboratory.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Since 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSince 2008, this has been the biggest signal for stock direction. Here’s where it’s telling investors to go now.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-08 20:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/since-2008-this-has-been-the-biggest-signal-for-stock-direction-heres-where-its-telling-investors-to-go-now-11623151244?mod=home-page><strong>marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Critical information for the U.S. trading day.\n\nThe summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/since-2008-this-has-been-the-biggest-signal-for-stock-direction-heres-where-its-telling-investors-to-go-now-11623151244?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/since-2008-this-has-been-the-biggest-signal-for-stock-direction-heres-where-its-telling-investors-to-go-now-11623151244?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135816983","content_text":"Critical information for the U.S. trading day.\n\nThe summer lull is real for investors right now, as stock catalysts seem few and far between. Thursday’s update on consumer prices could bring the next one, after May dataspooked markets last month.\nWith equitiesSPX,-0.08%hovering at record highs amid a mind-blowing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic slump, investors want to know when and how central banks will start responding to signs of surging global inflation. And as not all stocks are built alike for different stages of a recovery, many rightly want to know if they are betting on the right ones.\nThey should start by keeping an eye on what has been the most reliable indicator for stock direction since 2008 — the 10-year bond yieldTMUBMUSD10Y,1.541%,according to The Leuthold Group’s chief investment strategist, Jim Paulsen, who provides ourcall of the day.\nSince the 2008-09 financial crisis, “the bond market has been determining, or at least coincidentally signaling” which groups of stocks will be the winners and losers, he told clients in a note. That has been particularly true for several popular themes including cyclicals, growth investing, small-caps, etc.\nFor example, via the below charts he showed how defensive sectors, such as utilities and staples or low-volatility investments, only do well when bond yields are headed lower:\nThe Leuthold Group\nSo should the yield on the 10-year, currently hovering at 1.561%, make another run at 2%, that group is likely to underperform, he said. But if the economy is headed for overheat pressures and yields are set to rise, history has shown the most volatile stocks are often winner, he added.\nPaulsen pointed to the below charts of small-cap stocks, cyclical sectors and emerging markets that are “often the winners during periods in which rising yields cause stock market mayhem.”\nThe Leuthold Group\nThe Leuthold Group\nAnd the strategist is among those who do indeed see yields rising.\n“The recent pause in the 10-year yield despite escalating inflation expectations has been puzzling. Moreover, if yields continue to trend sideways or retrace part of their recent advance, defensive investments, including growth stocks, will likely be stock market leaders,” wrote Paulsen.\nHe expects another leg higher for that yield, pushing it above 2%, likely by the end of 2021. And that means “stock investors should heed the bond market’s message and drive a few of those fast ‘cyclical’ stock cars!”\nBitcoin blues and billionaires and taxes\nU.S. stock futuresES00,0.14%NQ00,0.49%YM00,-0.06%are trading mixed, with European stocksSXXP,0.35%flat, while Asian marketspulled back. OilCL.1,-0.92%is slipping, the dollarDXY,0.14%is up and bitcoinBTCUSD,-3.83%and other cryptocurrencies continue to fall. Some note digital assets sagging since the news that U.S. authoritiesmanaged to recover most of the bitcoin usedto pay a ransomware attack on a key energy pipeline.\nOn the data front, the National Federation of Independent Business index fell for the first time this year, ashiring woes hit small-business owners. Still ahead is the trade deficit report and job openings survey.\nMajor global websites including Amazon.com, CNN and Bloomberghave been hit by outageson Tuesday. Shares of FastlyFSLY,+7.17%fell briefly after the cloud platform said it hasidentified a problemand was working on a fix.\nBillionaires including AmazonAMZN,-0.26%Chief Executive Jeff Bezos and Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk at times have sidestepped federal income taxes,a new report says.\nJerome Guillen, longtime president of TeslaTSLA,+1.01%Heavy Trucking, apparentlyleft the electric-car makerlast week.\nBack in May 2020, a U.S. government report on COVID-19 origins wasurging an investigation into the theorythat it leaked from a Wuhan laboratory.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":59,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369941077934144,"gmtCreate":1731340162740,"gmtModify":1731340168591,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a> to the moon!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ </a> to the moon!!","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ to the moon!!","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac80df7ad52292338fb186d47ee9de2a","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369941077934144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":52,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010968","authorId":"10000000000010968","name":"Tiger_CBA","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ae2d4002ef9664aba005cb3020f416f5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010968","authorIdStr":"10000000000010968"},"content":"Your recent success is a great motivator. Keep refining your investment strategies and making those smart moves. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","text":"Your recent success is a great motivator. Keep refining your investment strategies and making those smart moves. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.","html":"Your recent success is a great motivator. Keep refining your investment strategies and making those smart moves. Trade with Tiger Cash Boost Account and use contra trading to enhance your strategies. Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here. Other helpful links: How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website."}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982793254,"gmtCreate":1667255832478,"gmtModify":1676537884093,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this is good to hear that.","listText":"this is good to hear that.","text":"this is good to hear that.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982793254","repostId":"1165961334","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165961334","pubTimestamp":1667230185,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1165961334?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 23:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Cut And Sell To The Enthusiastic Buyers","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165961334","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple bulls have gotten excited over its post-earnings surge. However, we urge investors not ","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple bulls have gotten excited over its post-earnings surge. However, we urge investors not to get caught up in what could be a short-term relief rally.</li><li>We parse several red flags in Apple&#39;s &#34;growth&#34; story that investors must consider carefully. These could be structural challenges that suggest AAPL&#39;s valuation is not sustainable.</li><li>We discuss why AAPL&#39;s price action is not constructive for a sustained rally. Therefore, investors should consider taking some exposure off at these levels.</li><li>Revising AAPL from Hold to Sell.</li></ul><h2>Thesis</h2><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple Inc.</a>&#39;s FQ4 earnings release saw many loyal Apple fans excited at the Cupertino company&#39;s resilience while its big tech peers faltered.</p><p>However, investors who parsed its earning commentary and segment metrics would have gleaned several red flags that shouldn&#39;t be missed. iPhone was strong as it launched its iPhone 14 series recently. Apple investors are keenly aware that its FQ4 is a seasonally strong quarter due to the timing of its iPhone launch. Hence, we wouldn&#39;t focus too much on how FQ4 performs per se. Instead, we will discuss why we see significant headwinds into the next two quarters that Apple bulls may not have considered carefully relative to Apple&#39;s unsustainable valuation.</p><p>We will pore through forward guidance/commentary on how Apple sees its forward outlook. The market doesn&#39;t focus on past data/releases but on what it anticipates Apple&#39;s forward performances could shape up.</p><p>Our analysis indicates that the post-earnings surge looks increasingly like a move to ensnare traders/Apple bulls into another trap before digesting those gains. Some investors get caught up in pre/post-earnings moves without carefully assessing the price action of their overall price structures. As a result, we maintain our conviction that AAPL&#39;s medium-term uptrend has been lost, which we will address in the article.</p><p>We discuss why AAPL&#39;s valuation at the current levels is unsustainable. Also, it appears to have been de-rated, which is another early warning sign that a steeper fall could be in the works for careless Apple bulls who don&#39;t accord sufficient caution on its valuations.</p><p>Accordingly, we revise our rating on AAPL from Hold to Sell and urge investors to use the rally to cut exposure.</p><h3>Where&#39;s The Follow Through For iPhone?</h3><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dd288e8645266ef125527813239263a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Apple revenue share by product category % (S&amp;P Cap IQ)</p><p>Apple investors should be keenly aware that any serious discussion can never avoid the performance of its three most critical revenue drivers, as seen above.</p><p>There&#39;s little doubt that Mac outperformed in 2022, as its revenue share surged to 12.8% in FQ4. Coupled with iPhone and Services, they accounted for 81.3% of Apple&#39;s FQ4 revenue, down from FQ3&#39;s 81.6%. However, it&#39;s higher than FQ4&#39;21&#39;s revenue share of 79.6% when Mac accounted for 11% of revenue. Hence, we will need to address whether Mac&#39;s outperformance in FQ4 can sustain its growth moving forward.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b58e351dfebd1a6aa36497c23b8b011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Apple iPhone revenue change % and Mac revenue change % (Company filings)</p><p>With iPhone accounting for 47.3% of FQ4&#39;s revenue base, Apple bulls would have been heartened to know that iPhone revenue grew 9.7%. But that&#39;s miles off last year&#39;s 47% growth. Management attributed the strength in iPhone revenue to the upgraders and switchers, implying that it has continued to gain market share. But, we wouldn&#39;t encourage investors to read too much into FQ4&#39;s numbers for Apple, given its seasonal distortions.</p><p>Notably, we urge investors to consider what FQ1 could look like as Apple enters its first full quarter of iPhone 14 series sales. Management&#39;s forward commentary (not guidance) suggests it sees &#34;year-over-year revenue performance will decelerate during the December quarter [FQ1&#39;23] as compared to the September quarter [FQ4&#39;22].&#34;</p><p>Okay, so here&#39;s what it looks like. Apple&#39;s FQ1&#39;22 iPhone revenue grew by 9.2% YoY. So, iPhone 13 had a pretty solid full quarter of performance, but it still came in below FQ1&#39;21&#39;s 17.2% growth, as seen above.</p><p>Note that Apple&#39;s FQ4&#39;22 overall revenue grew by 8.1% YoY. Hence, it suggests that iPhone&#39;s revenue growth would likely continue on a declining trend even as it gains share against its competitors. As a result, we believe it will continue to get harder for Apple to outperform.</p><p>Meanwhile, Mac&#39;s performance is unsustainable. Apple has outperformed its Windows peers by posting a remarkable 25.4% growth in Mac revenue in FQ4. However, management&#39;s commentary suggests that &#34;Mac revenue to decline substantially year-over-year during the December quarter [FQ1&#39;23].&#34;</p><p>As a reminder, Mac delivered $10.9B in revenue for FQ1&#39;22, up 25.6% YoY. Hence, that tailwind from Mac is presumably gone. Therefore, it suggests that Apple is not immune to the significant consumer electronics headwinds that have impacted the PC market. Apple&#39;s commentary suggests that it sees these headwinds to continue. Supply chain sources indicate that inventory digestion in the PC channel could continue till H2&#39;23. But that&#39;s inventory digestion. Recovery of demand is another matter.</p><p>In a recent commentary, Bloomberg&#39;s Mark Gurman highlighted that Apple could be ready for its MacBook launch with new M2 chips on TSMC&#39;s (TSM) 3nm process nodes in early 2023. Therefore, Apple could be looking to juice its Mac segment in time for FQ3&#39;s reporting. We will see how that goes, but we assess that investors shouldn&#39;t place too much emphasis on expecting Mac to lead again in the near term.</p><h3>What About Services?</h3><p>Before investors get overly excited about the recent price hike in Apple&#39;s subscriptions, Loup Ventures&#39; estimates indicate a 1% accretion to net income &#34;over the next year.&#34; Of course, Apple&#39;s ability to boost prices is often taken for granted but is an outcome of its competitive moat built up over time. However, we wouldn&#39;t get too excited over a 1% boost for now, as AAPL shares are priced at a marked premium.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401f119f3363941ae70a638803c86be9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Apple services revenue change % (Company filings)</p><p>Services grew by 5% YoY in FQ4, continuing a downward trend that topped out in FQ3&#39;21, as seen above. Hence, is it going to bottom out eventually? Nothing falls in a straight line. But maybe not in the near term.</p><p>Management&#39;s commentary suggests that Services could continue to come under pressure due to significant macro challenges, including forex. However, we urge investors to consider forex tailwinds/headwinds as one package. For companies with substantial global exposure, it&#39;s just part and parcel of doing business. It&#39;s inherent in the business model. When did people complain about forex being a tailwind previously? We don&#39;t recall if there was any.</p><p>So, Apple&#39;s most important growth driver could be undergoing a structural slowdown even if its bottoms out subsequently. So what&#39;s next in line? If you buy Apple for &#34;optionality,&#34; you can consider the following, as highlighted by Loup Ventures&#39;s Gene Munster:</p><p>Apple has growth optionality within three potential addressable markets that I’ve talked about before. This includes health, AR, and auto. One of these three opportunities will likely come to fruition and set up the company for another decade of solid performance. - Loup Ventures</p><p>For now, we focus on what we can see. Why? AAPL is not cheap. It&#39;s too expensive to buy just for optionality.</p><h3>Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?</h3><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b84c8068257bfa0618e5a5da91ad8de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>AAPL NTM EBITDA multiples valuation trend (koyfin)</p><p>AAPL last traded at an NTM EBITDA multiple of 18.7x, well above its 10Y mean of 11x. Also, note that AAPL has been unable to gain momentum above the two standard deviation zone over its 10Y mean.</p><p>Hence, the market has seemingly &#34;refused&#34; to follow AAPL bulls on their optimism that AAPL deserves to be rated at a significant premium against the market and its peers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f139c454009f7ac5479bf7f017902f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>AAPL Forward EBITDA multiples consensus estimates (S&amp;P Cap IQ)</p><p>Based on its forward EBITDA multiples through FY25, it&#39;s clear that Apple is not a growth story. Even the bullish Street analysts don&#39;t think Apple can generate massive profitability growth over the next three years to &#34;bring down&#34; its forward EBITDA multiples.</p><p>We believe the market knows that AAPL is not a growth story. And therefore, its valuation is unsustainable at the current levels.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0434014220415fdae1acd42aaadf37a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>AAPL price chart (weekly) (TradingView)</p><p>Therefore, we postulate that the easy money in AAPL has already been made. If you jump on the bandwagon now, we assess that the reward-to-risk profile is highly unattractive.</p><p>Note that AAPL has already lost its medium-term bullish bias. It&#39;s not unusual for AAPL to stage a relief rally from an oversold September bottom (yes, the rally already started three weeks ago, not last week). The critical question is where this rally could stall.</p><p>We urge investors to watch for its near-term resistance, annotated in the chart above. Hence, it doesn&#39;t hurt to take some exposure off if you are sitting on massive gains. Given the tech bear market, there are plenty of alternatives to choose from.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Cut And Sell To The Enthusiastic Buyers</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Cut And Sell To The Enthusiastic Buyers\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-31 23:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551058-apple-q4-earnings-cut-sell-to-enthusiastic-buyers><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple bulls have gotten excited over its post-earnings surge. However, we urge investors not to get caught up in what could be a short-term relief rally.We parse several red flags in Apple's \"...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551058-apple-q4-earnings-cut-sell-to-enthusiastic-buyers\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551058-apple-q4-earnings-cut-sell-to-enthusiastic-buyers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165961334","content_text":"SummaryApple bulls have gotten excited over its post-earnings surge. However, we urge investors not to get caught up in what could be a short-term relief rally.We parse several red flags in Apple's \"growth\" story that investors must consider carefully. These could be structural challenges that suggest AAPL's valuation is not sustainable.We discuss why AAPL's price action is not constructive for a sustained rally. Therefore, investors should consider taking some exposure off at these levels.Revising AAPL from Hold to Sell.ThesisApple Inc.'s FQ4 earnings release saw many loyal Apple fans excited at the Cupertino company's resilience while its big tech peers faltered.However, investors who parsed its earning commentary and segment metrics would have gleaned several red flags that shouldn't be missed. iPhone was strong as it launched its iPhone 14 series recently. Apple investors are keenly aware that its FQ4 is a seasonally strong quarter due to the timing of its iPhone launch. Hence, we wouldn't focus too much on how FQ4 performs per se. Instead, we will discuss why we see significant headwinds into the next two quarters that Apple bulls may not have considered carefully relative to Apple's unsustainable valuation.We will pore through forward guidance/commentary on how Apple sees its forward outlook. The market doesn't focus on past data/releases but on what it anticipates Apple's forward performances could shape up.Our analysis indicates that the post-earnings surge looks increasingly like a move to ensnare traders/Apple bulls into another trap before digesting those gains. Some investors get caught up in pre/post-earnings moves without carefully assessing the price action of their overall price structures. As a result, we maintain our conviction that AAPL's medium-term uptrend has been lost, which we will address in the article.We discuss why AAPL's valuation at the current levels is unsustainable. Also, it appears to have been de-rated, which is another early warning sign that a steeper fall could be in the works for careless Apple bulls who don't accord sufficient caution on its valuations.Accordingly, we revise our rating on AAPL from Hold to Sell and urge investors to use the rally to cut exposure.Where's The Follow Through For iPhone?Apple revenue share by product category % (S&P Cap IQ)Apple investors should be keenly aware that any serious discussion can never avoid the performance of its three most critical revenue drivers, as seen above.There's little doubt that Mac outperformed in 2022, as its revenue share surged to 12.8% in FQ4. Coupled with iPhone and Services, they accounted for 81.3% of Apple's FQ4 revenue, down from FQ3's 81.6%. However, it's higher than FQ4'21's revenue share of 79.6% when Mac accounted for 11% of revenue. Hence, we will need to address whether Mac's outperformance in FQ4 can sustain its growth moving forward.Apple iPhone revenue change % and Mac revenue change % (Company filings)With iPhone accounting for 47.3% of FQ4's revenue base, Apple bulls would have been heartened to know that iPhone revenue grew 9.7%. But that's miles off last year's 47% growth. Management attributed the strength in iPhone revenue to the upgraders and switchers, implying that it has continued to gain market share. But, we wouldn't encourage investors to read too much into FQ4's numbers for Apple, given its seasonal distortions.Notably, we urge investors to consider what FQ1 could look like as Apple enters its first full quarter of iPhone 14 series sales. Management's forward commentary (not guidance) suggests it sees \"year-over-year revenue performance will decelerate during the December quarter [FQ1'23] as compared to the September quarter [FQ4'22].\"Okay, so here's what it looks like. Apple's FQ1'22 iPhone revenue grew by 9.2% YoY. So, iPhone 13 had a pretty solid full quarter of performance, but it still came in below FQ1'21's 17.2% growth, as seen above.Note that Apple's FQ4'22 overall revenue grew by 8.1% YoY. Hence, it suggests that iPhone's revenue growth would likely continue on a declining trend even as it gains share against its competitors. As a result, we believe it will continue to get harder for Apple to outperform.Meanwhile, Mac's performance is unsustainable. Apple has outperformed its Windows peers by posting a remarkable 25.4% growth in Mac revenue in FQ4. However, management's commentary suggests that \"Mac revenue to decline substantially year-over-year during the December quarter [FQ1'23].\"As a reminder, Mac delivered $10.9B in revenue for FQ1'22, up 25.6% YoY. Hence, that tailwind from Mac is presumably gone. Therefore, it suggests that Apple is not immune to the significant consumer electronics headwinds that have impacted the PC market. Apple's commentary suggests that it sees these headwinds to continue. Supply chain sources indicate that inventory digestion in the PC channel could continue till H2'23. But that's inventory digestion. Recovery of demand is another matter.In a recent commentary, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman highlighted that Apple could be ready for its MacBook launch with new M2 chips on TSMC's (TSM) 3nm process nodes in early 2023. Therefore, Apple could be looking to juice its Mac segment in time for FQ3's reporting. We will see how that goes, but we assess that investors shouldn't place too much emphasis on expecting Mac to lead again in the near term.What About Services?Before investors get overly excited about the recent price hike in Apple's subscriptions, Loup Ventures' estimates indicate a 1% accretion to net income \"over the next year.\" Of course, Apple's ability to boost prices is often taken for granted but is an outcome of its competitive moat built up over time. However, we wouldn't get too excited over a 1% boost for now, as AAPL shares are priced at a marked premium.Apple services revenue change % (Company filings)Services grew by 5% YoY in FQ4, continuing a downward trend that topped out in FQ3'21, as seen above. Hence, is it going to bottom out eventually? Nothing falls in a straight line. But maybe not in the near term.Management's commentary suggests that Services could continue to come under pressure due to significant macro challenges, including forex. However, we urge investors to consider forex tailwinds/headwinds as one package. For companies with substantial global exposure, it's just part and parcel of doing business. It's inherent in the business model. When did people complain about forex being a tailwind previously? We don't recall if there was any.So, Apple's most important growth driver could be undergoing a structural slowdown even if its bottoms out subsequently. So what's next in line? If you buy Apple for \"optionality,\" you can consider the following, as highlighted by Loup Ventures's Gene Munster:Apple has growth optionality within three potential addressable markets that I’ve talked about before. This includes health, AR, and auto. One of these three opportunities will likely come to fruition and set up the company for another decade of solid performance. - Loup VenturesFor now, we focus on what we can see. Why? AAPL is not cheap. It's too expensive to buy just for optionality.Is AAPL Stock A Buy, Sell, Or Hold?AAPL NTM EBITDA multiples valuation trend (koyfin)AAPL last traded at an NTM EBITDA multiple of 18.7x, well above its 10Y mean of 11x. Also, note that AAPL has been unable to gain momentum above the two standard deviation zone over its 10Y mean.Hence, the market has seemingly \"refused\" to follow AAPL bulls on their optimism that AAPL deserves to be rated at a significant premium against the market and its peers.AAPL Forward EBITDA multiples consensus estimates (S&P Cap IQ)Based on its forward EBITDA multiples through FY25, it's clear that Apple is not a growth story. Even the bullish Street analysts don't think Apple can generate massive profitability growth over the next three years to \"bring down\" its forward EBITDA multiples.We believe the market knows that AAPL is not a growth story. And therefore, its valuation is unsustainable at the current levels.AAPL price chart (weekly) (TradingView)Therefore, we postulate that the easy money in AAPL has already been made. If you jump on the bandwagon now, we assess that the reward-to-risk profile is highly unattractive.Note that AAPL has already lost its medium-term bullish bias. It's not unusual for AAPL to stage a relief rally from an oversold September bottom (yes, the rally already started three weeks ago, not last week). The critical question is where this rally could stall.We urge investors to watch for its near-term resistance, annotated in the chart above. Hence, it doesn't hurt to take some exposure off if you are sitting on massive gains. Given the tech bear market, there are plenty of alternatives to choose from.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187778550,"gmtCreate":1623765522070,"gmtModify":1703818693629,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187778550","repostId":"1140629644","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140629644","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623763822,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140629644?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘：美股基本平开！优信二手车涨逾12%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140629644","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月15日，道琼斯指数开盘上涨18.23点，涨幅0.05%，报34411.98点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌12.71点，跌幅0.09%，报14161.43点；标普500指数开盘上涨0.15点，涨幅0.","content":"<p>6月15日，道琼斯指数开盘上涨18.23点，涨幅0.05%，报34411.98点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌12.71点，跌幅0.09%，报14161.43点；标普500指数开盘上涨0.15点，涨幅0.00%，报4255.30点。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">优信</a>二手车涨超12%，此前宣布规模高达3.15亿美元的融资交易。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">趣店</a>跌超7%，Q1营收录得大幅下滑。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>跌2%，美投资者质疑该公司在IPO时夸大财务状况并谎报潜在监管风险，公司回应称毫无依据。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">Ocugen</a>涨超14%，公司就其在美国生产新冠疫苗COVAXIN建立生产伙伴关系。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VRM\">Vroom</a>跌6%，此前宣布拟发行5亿美元2026年到期的可转换高级票据。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">DraftKings</a>跌超10%，此前遭沽空机构Hindenburg Research做空。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">Torchlight Energy Resources</a>涨27%，此前申请至多2.5亿美元的混合储架发行。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨0.4%，欧盟与美国达成协议以解决波音与空客的贸易纠纷。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPGN\">OpGen</a>涨12%，此前公司CEO与COO买入公司股份。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>跌超2%，此前公司提交了一份股东出售130万股股票的招股说明书补充文件。</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：美股基本平开！优信二手车涨逾12%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：美股基本平开！优信二手车涨逾12%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月15日，道琼斯指数开盘上涨18.23点，涨幅0.05%，报34411.98点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌12.71点，跌幅0.09%，报14161.43点；标普500指数开盘上涨0.15点，涨幅0.00%，报4255.30点。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">优信</a>二手车涨超12%，此前宣布规模高达3.15亿美元的融资交易。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">趣店</a>跌超7%，Q1营收录得大幅下滑。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>跌2%，美投资者质疑该公司在IPO时夸大财务状况并谎报潜在监管风险，公司回应称毫无依据。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">Ocugen</a>涨超14%，公司就其在美国生产新冠疫苗COVAXIN建立生产伙伴关系。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VRM\">Vroom</a>跌6%，此前宣布拟发行5亿美元2026年到期的可转换高级票据。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DKNG\">DraftKings</a>跌超10%，此前遭沽空机构Hindenburg Research做空。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRCH\">Torchlight Energy Resources</a>涨27%，此前申请至多2.5亿美元的混合储架发行。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>涨0.4%，欧盟与美国达成协议以解决波音与空客的贸易纠纷。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPGN\">OpGen</a>涨12%，此前公司CEO与COO买入公司股份。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">Uber</a>跌超2%，此前公司提交了一份股东出售130万股股票的招股说明书补充文件。</p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","UBER":"优步",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OPGN":"OpGen, Inc.","RLX":"雾芯科技","UXIN":"优信","VRM":"Vroom, Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140629644","content_text":"6月15日，道琼斯指数开盘上涨18.23点，涨幅0.05%，报34411.98点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘下跌12.71点，跌幅0.09%，报14161.43点；标普500指数开盘上涨0.15点，涨幅0.00%，报4255.30点。\n优信二手车涨超12%，此前宣布规模高达3.15亿美元的融资交易。\n趣店跌超7%，Q1营收录得大幅下滑。\n雾芯科技跌2%，美投资者质疑该公司在IPO时夸大财务状况并谎报潜在监管风险，公司回应称毫无依据。\nOcugen涨超14%，公司就其在美国生产新冠疫苗COVAXIN建立生产伙伴关系。\nVroom跌6%，此前宣布拟发行5亿美元2026年到期的可转换高级票据。\nDraftKings跌超10%，此前遭沽空机构Hindenburg Research做空。\nTorchlight Energy Resources涨27%，此前申请至多2.5亿美元的混合储架发行。\n波音涨0.4%，欧盟与美国达成协议以解决波音与空客的贸易纠纷。\nOpGen涨12%，此前公司CEO与COO买入公司股份。\nUber跌超2%，此前公司提交了一份股东出售130万股股票的招股说明书补充文件。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187779807,"gmtCreate":1623765436309,"gmtModify":1703818688683,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187779807","repostId":"1119444358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119444358","pubTimestamp":1623730397,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1119444358?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 12:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119444358","media":"美港电讯","summary":"美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号。","content":"<p>周一，纳指、标普500指数再创历史新高；与此同时，衡量标普500指数波动性的VIX指数近日持续走低，目前已经触及去年疫情爆发以来的最低水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c682edd73777792c9069a8b0727620e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>金融博客零对冲撰文指出，<u><b>美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号，这是年内第二个“四巫日”，届时大量美股期权将同时到期。</b></u></p>\n<p>高盛的内部衍生品专家Rocky Fishman预测6月即将到期的期权规模和之前一样巨大，具体而言，本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54db6f13be487dd09e44c260bc5440db\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>值得注意的是，执行价格接近标的资产价格的期权数量创下10年来最低，由于近期美股一直处于高位，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的股指现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a85d6a35c0b893247b3b9095f4400b15\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，据高盛估计，折式合成期权（combos）占标普500指数期权规模的15-20%，即调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远大于即将到期的单一股票期权的未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。</p>\n<p><b><u>这个“四巫日”之所以特别，一个重要原因是此前大盘波动率实在低得异常。</u></b>高盛策略师指出标普500指数过去13个交易日的波动率仅为5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这一幕和1997年8月相似，当时标普500指数不断续刷新高，与此同时VIX指数却处于新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>大盘波动率极低，但诡异的是，个股却频频上演极端波动，例如AMC——虽然AMC上周名义成交量仅70亿美元/天，远低于亚马逊的1200亿美元/天，且远低于第一季度的峰值，但在所有个股中其合约成交量最高，期间可实现的成交量接近400%。</p>\n<p>分析指出，散户驱动了所有个股期权活动的很大比例，近期个股期权活动的增长主要集中在低价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量的份额与名义交易量不匹配。</p>\n<p>目前美股的多头伽玛头寸规模依然高企，野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，<b><u>极低的大盘实际波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期的情况是危险的，即一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升</u></b>。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>高盛还指出，临近周五“四巫日”，美股期权交易量正在下降，这个反常现象出现主要是因为每周到期的短期期权正在变得火热，尤其是大受散户投资者欢迎。事实上，第三个周五到期的标普500指数期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，甚至小于每周一和周三到期期权交易量的百分比。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>超短期期权交易量增加的一个解释是散户对部分个股的热潮。高盛指出：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者看涨买入产生的短期gamma，他们可能会积极买入多头头寸，以抵消伽玛效应。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>零对冲警告，一旦这个趋势变得普遍，大盘可能会面临剧烈波动。</p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 12:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003226><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周一，纳指、标普500指数再创历史新高；与此同时，衡量标普500指数波动性的VIX指数近日持续走低，目前已经触及去年疫情爆发以来的最低水平。\n\n金融博客零对冲撰文指出，美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号，这是年内第二个“四巫日”，届时大量美股期权将同时到期。\n高盛的内部衍生品专家Rocky Fishman预测6月即将到期的期权规模和之前一样巨大，具体而言，本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003226\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003226","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119444358","content_text":"周一，纳指、标普500指数再创历史新高；与此同时，衡量标普500指数波动性的VIX指数近日持续走低，目前已经触及去年疫情爆发以来的最低水平。\n\n金融博客零对冲撰文指出，美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号，这是年内第二个“四巫日”，届时大量美股期权将同时到期。\n高盛的内部衍生品专家Rocky Fishman预测6月即将到期的期权规模和之前一样巨大，具体而言，本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权。\n\n值得注意的是，执行价格接近标的资产价格的期权数量创下10年来最低，由于近期美股一直处于高位，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的股指现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n此外，据高盛估计，折式合成期权（combos）占标普500指数期权规模的15-20%，即调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远大于即将到期的单一股票期权的未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。\n这个“四巫日”之所以特别，一个重要原因是此前大盘波动率实在低得异常。高盛策略师指出标普500指数过去13个交易日的波动率仅为5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低。\n\n这一幕和1997年8月相似，当时标普500指数不断续刷新高，与此同时VIX指数却处于新低。\n\n大盘波动率极低，但诡异的是，个股却频频上演极端波动，例如AMC——虽然AMC上周名义成交量仅70亿美元/天，远低于亚马逊的1200亿美元/天，且远低于第一季度的峰值，但在所有个股中其合约成交量最高，期间可实现的成交量接近400%。\n分析指出，散户驱动了所有个股期权活动的很大比例，近期个股期权活动的增长主要集中在低价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量的份额与名义交易量不匹配。\n目前美股的多头伽玛头寸规模依然高企，野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘实际波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期的情况是危险的，即一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n\n高盛还指出，临近周五“四巫日”，美股期权交易量正在下降，这个反常现象出现主要是因为每周到期的短期期权正在变得火热，尤其是大受散户投资者欢迎。事实上，第三个周五到期的标普500指数期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，甚至小于每周一和周三到期期权交易量的百分比。\n\n超短期期权交易量增加的一个解释是散户对部分个股的热潮。高盛指出：\n\n “如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者看涨买入产生的短期gamma，他们可能会积极买入多头头寸，以抵消伽玛效应。”\n\n零对冲警告，一旦这个趋势变得普遍，大盘可能会面临剧烈波动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982791201,"gmtCreate":1667255929003,"gmtModify":1676537884119,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"this is too bad","listText":"this is too bad","text":"this is too bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982791201","repostId":"2279932388","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2279932388","pubTimestamp":1667228641,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2279932388?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Big Positives Within Amazon's \"Disappointing\" Earnings Report","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279932388","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The market reaction was negative, but there were some bullish indicators underneath Amazon's earnings miss and guidance.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>This past week&#39;s big tech earnings reports saw most names sell off hard, with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a> logging a 6.8% decline on Friday after its Thursday night earnings, even as the broader market was up 2.5% on the day.</p><p>Sellers were probably worried about two things: relatively tepid fourth-quarter guidance, along with lower-than-expected revenue growth and margins in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) segment.</p><p>Those were not unfounded concerns, although quarter-to-quarter fluctuations are expected, especially as interest rates and natural gas prices spiked over the summer.</p><p>Yet lost underneath the headlines, there were actually several segments of Amazon showing positive strength and profitability -- each of which could be bullish indicators for the stock&#39;s long-term future.</p><h2>Advertising revenues are large and accelerating</h2><p>The reason AWS looms large for many investors is because it&#39;s a high-margin business, whereas Amazon&#39;s retail operations have generally operated at razor-thin, or negative, margins in pursuit of growth and market share.</p><p>However, Amazon&#39;s burgeoning advertising business, which it just started breaking out this year, has the potential to be another high-margin business within Amazon&#39;s corporate empire. And that segment, for all intents and purposes, is booming.</p><p>Last quarter, Amazon&#39;s ad segment actually showed an acceleration, growing 30% year over year to more than $9.5 billion. That&#39;s really impressive, especially when so many digital advertising companies showed tepid growth last quarter.</p><p>By comparison, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) saw Search ads rise only 4% in the third quarter, and YouTube and third-party ad networks each fell 2%. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a> saw its advertising revenue fall roughly 3.3%. And lest you think that is because Amazon&#39;s ad business is much smaller than these two behemoths, Amazon&#39;s ad revenues are now greater than both YouTube and Alphabet&#39;s third-party networks, and are more than one-third the size of Meta&#39;s ad revenue.</p><p>Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said on the conference call with analysts: &#34;[O]ur advertising is at the point where consumers are ready to spend. So we have a lot of advantages that we feel that will help both consumers and also our partners like sellers and advertisers.&#34;</p><p>Amazon doesn&#39;t break out the operating margin for its ad business, but even in a bad quarter in which margins compressed, Google&#39;s services segment -- which also includes some lower-margin hardware -- sported a 32.2% operating margin, down from 40% a year ago. Meta&#39;s &#34;family of apps&#34; operating margin was 34%, down from 45.9% in the year-ago quarter.</p><p>So it stands to reason Amazon&#39;s ad business is probably high-margin as well -- especially given its robust top-line growth.</p><h2>Shipping costs go below paid units growth</h2><p>Another positive lurking in the fine print of Amazon&#39;s report was shipping costs. Over recent quarters, Amazon&#39;s shipping cost growth outpaced units shipped, putting pressure on margins. However, in the third quarter, units shipped grew 11%, while shipping costs only grew 10%. That&#39;s the first time unit growth outpaced shipping costs in a long while.</p><p>Getting shipping costs under control was one of the things investors wanted to see, given that Amazon had way overbuilt its infrastructure during the pandemic, and demand slowed in the first half of the year. It&#39;s likely that lower oil prices during the third quarter played a role. Also, this could be the beginning of seeing the fruits of its own in-house expansion of its shipping infrastructure, as opposed to using third-party delivery companies.</p><p>Of course, overall margins were squeezed by currency headwinds in Europe, which swung third-quarter revenue growth by a whopping 17 percentage points, from a 12% gain in constant currency to a 5% revenue decline. But in the North American segment, operating losses narrowed quarter over quarter, lending credence to the hope that the e-commerce segment will eventually return to profitability in short order.</p><h2>Other revenues were up 168%</h2><p>Finally, with e-commerce, AWS, and advertising taking up so much attention, investors may not have noticed 168% year-over-year growth and 18% quarter-over-quarter growth in Amazon&#39;s &#34;other&#34; revenues.</p><p>Other revenues were only $1.26 billion, or about 1% of total revenue, but remember, the advertising segment used to be included in this segment, and it&#39;s probably where some of Amazon&#39;s exciting experimental ventures reside.</p><p>In its filings, Amazon describes the &#34;other segment&#34; as &#34;sales related to various other offerings, such as certain licensing and distribution of video content and shipping services, and our co-branded credit card agreements.&#34;</p><p>The step up in Amazon&#39;s other revenues really showed up in the second quarter, which could be related to its closing of MGM Studios late in the first quarter. However, that doesn&#39;t explain the big surge of growth from the second quarter to the third quarter.</p><p>I&#39;m very bullish on Amazon&#39;s new &#34;Just Walk Out&#34; technology that enables customers to shop without having to wait in line to check out; however, it&#39;s unclear if that is even monetized yet, or if it&#39;s included in the physical stores segment or other revenues.</p><p>In any case, while other revenue is a small footnote to the other all earnings picture, something within the segment has been growing at an exponential rate over the past two quarters. Amazon is known to experiment a lot to develop new products and services, so it&#39;s something to watch going forward.</p><h2>Short-term pain, long-term gain</h2><p>The headwinds Amazon faced last quarter primarily related to AWS. However, AWS saw 200 points of margin compression as natural gas prices spiked, causing higher electricity costs, according to management. Those prices have since come down in a big way since September. In fact, natural gas prices are down some 40% over the past two months. Meanwhile, Amazon was helping customers looking to save money move to some lower-cost services. which caused a revenue &#34;disappointment&#34; of only 27% growth.</p><p>Unlike the pandemic, when some customers saw an acceleration of demand, the interest rate spike of 2022 is causing a pullback across the board. However, AWS was able to reaccelerate growth after a brief lull at the start of the pandemic, and I&#39;d expect the same once inflation is under control and interest rates come down. Meanwhile, Amazon&#39;s AWS backlog was actually up 57% year over year to over $104 billion. So, the long-term trajectory of cloud computing seems very much intact.</p><p>Meanwhile, the three silver linings outlined above bode well for other parts of Amazon&#39;s future as well. This sell-off seems like a short-term overreaction, and a gift to long-term investors.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Big Positives Within Amazon's \"Disappointing\" Earnings Report</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Big Positives Within Amazon's \"Disappointing\" Earnings Report\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-31 23:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/31/3-big-positives-in-amazons-disappointing-earnings/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This past week's big tech earnings reports saw most names sell off hard, with Amazon logging a 6.8% decline on Friday after its Thursday night earnings, even as the broader market was up 2.5% on the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/31/3-big-positives-in-amazons-disappointing-earnings/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/31/3-big-positives-in-amazons-disappointing-earnings/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2279932388","content_text":"This past week's big tech earnings reports saw most names sell off hard, with Amazon logging a 6.8% decline on Friday after its Thursday night earnings, even as the broader market was up 2.5% on the day.Sellers were probably worried about two things: relatively tepid fourth-quarter guidance, along with lower-than-expected revenue growth and margins in the Amazon Web Services (AWS) segment.Those were not unfounded concerns, although quarter-to-quarter fluctuations are expected, especially as interest rates and natural gas prices spiked over the summer.Yet lost underneath the headlines, there were actually several segments of Amazon showing positive strength and profitability -- each of which could be bullish indicators for the stock's long-term future.Advertising revenues are large and acceleratingThe reason AWS looms large for many investors is because it's a high-margin business, whereas Amazon's retail operations have generally operated at razor-thin, or negative, margins in pursuit of growth and market share.However, Amazon's burgeoning advertising business, which it just started breaking out this year, has the potential to be another high-margin business within Amazon's corporate empire. And that segment, for all intents and purposes, is booming.Last quarter, Amazon's ad segment actually showed an acceleration, growing 30% year over year to more than $9.5 billion. That's really impressive, especially when so many digital advertising companies showed tepid growth last quarter.By comparison, Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) saw Search ads rise only 4% in the third quarter, and YouTube and third-party ad networks each fell 2%. Meta Platforms saw its advertising revenue fall roughly 3.3%. And lest you think that is because Amazon's ad business is much smaller than these two behemoths, Amazon's ad revenues are now greater than both YouTube and Alphabet's third-party networks, and are more than one-third the size of Meta's ad revenue.Amazon Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky said on the conference call with analysts: \"[O]ur advertising is at the point where consumers are ready to spend. So we have a lot of advantages that we feel that will help both consumers and also our partners like sellers and advertisers.\"Amazon doesn't break out the operating margin for its ad business, but even in a bad quarter in which margins compressed, Google's services segment -- which also includes some lower-margin hardware -- sported a 32.2% operating margin, down from 40% a year ago. Meta's \"family of apps\" operating margin was 34%, down from 45.9% in the year-ago quarter.So it stands to reason Amazon's ad business is probably high-margin as well -- especially given its robust top-line growth.Shipping costs go below paid units growthAnother positive lurking in the fine print of Amazon's report was shipping costs. Over recent quarters, Amazon's shipping cost growth outpaced units shipped, putting pressure on margins. However, in the third quarter, units shipped grew 11%, while shipping costs only grew 10%. That's the first time unit growth outpaced shipping costs in a long while.Getting shipping costs under control was one of the things investors wanted to see, given that Amazon had way overbuilt its infrastructure during the pandemic, and demand slowed in the first half of the year. It's likely that lower oil prices during the third quarter played a role. Also, this could be the beginning of seeing the fruits of its own in-house expansion of its shipping infrastructure, as opposed to using third-party delivery companies.Of course, overall margins were squeezed by currency headwinds in Europe, which swung third-quarter revenue growth by a whopping 17 percentage points, from a 12% gain in constant currency to a 5% revenue decline. But in the North American segment, operating losses narrowed quarter over quarter, lending credence to the hope that the e-commerce segment will eventually return to profitability in short order.Other revenues were up 168%Finally, with e-commerce, AWS, and advertising taking up so much attention, investors may not have noticed 168% year-over-year growth and 18% quarter-over-quarter growth in Amazon's \"other\" revenues.Other revenues were only $1.26 billion, or about 1% of total revenue, but remember, the advertising segment used to be included in this segment, and it's probably where some of Amazon's exciting experimental ventures reside.In its filings, Amazon describes the \"other segment\" as \"sales related to various other offerings, such as certain licensing and distribution of video content and shipping services, and our co-branded credit card agreements.\"The step up in Amazon's other revenues really showed up in the second quarter, which could be related to its closing of MGM Studios late in the first quarter. However, that doesn't explain the big surge of growth from the second quarter to the third quarter.I'm very bullish on Amazon's new \"Just Walk Out\" technology that enables customers to shop without having to wait in line to check out; however, it's unclear if that is even monetized yet, or if it's included in the physical stores segment or other revenues.In any case, while other revenue is a small footnote to the other all earnings picture, something within the segment has been growing at an exponential rate over the past two quarters. Amazon is known to experiment a lot to develop new products and services, so it's something to watch going forward.Short-term pain, long-term gainThe headwinds Amazon faced last quarter primarily related to AWS. However, AWS saw 200 points of margin compression as natural gas prices spiked, causing higher electricity costs, according to management. Those prices have since come down in a big way since September. In fact, natural gas prices are down some 40% over the past two months. Meanwhile, Amazon was helping customers looking to save money move to some lower-cost services. which caused a revenue \"disappointment\" of only 27% growth.Unlike the pandemic, when some customers saw an acceleration of demand, the interest rate spike of 2022 is causing a pullback across the board. However, AWS was able to reaccelerate growth after a brief lull at the start of the pandemic, and I'd expect the same once inflation is under control and interest rates come down. Meanwhile, Amazon's AWS backlog was actually up 57% year over year to over $104 billion. So, the long-term trajectory of cloud computing seems very much intact.Meanwhile, the three silver linings outlined above bode well for other parts of Amazon's future as well. This sell-off seems like a short-term overreaction, and a gift to long-term investors.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129828650,"gmtCreate":1624369306570,"gmtModify":1703834618806,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129828650","repostId":"1121740775","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121740775","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624368518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1121740775?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 21:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘：美股涨跌不一，比特币大跌区块链概念集体走弱","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121740775","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月22日（周二），美股开盘涨跌不一。道琼斯指数开盘下跌22点，跌幅0.06%，报33855点；标普500指数开盘下跌2.0点，跌幅0.05%，报4222.8点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨0.2点，涨幅","content":"<p>6月22日（周二），美股开盘涨跌不一。道琼斯指数开盘下跌22点，跌幅0.06%，报33855点；标普500指数开盘下跌2.0点，跌幅0.05%，报4222.8点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨0.2点，涨幅0.03%，报14141.7点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4899cfec1286397933f077ece3d3d8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>比特币跌破29500美元/枚，日内跌幅6.75%。区块链概念股普跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>跌超10%，MicroStrategy跌超8%，Marathon Patent跌6.97%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌6.44%，Riot Blockchain跌4.96%，Coinbase跌3.41%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>开涨8%，公司宣布完成了在市场上发行500万股股票的计划。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLK\">Splunk</a>开盘大涨10%。市场消息：银湖资本将向Splunk投资10亿美元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">普拉格能源</a>涨超3%，公司CEO称<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>购买了其电解器。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">维视图像</a>开盘跌超7%。维视图像表示，已经与Craig-Hallum集团达成一项协议，公司可以随时向该集团发行普通股股份，总价值不超过1.4亿美元，发行股份所得将用于一般公司用途。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">开心汽车</a>涨超3%。开心汽车宣布，公司正在与中国领先的休闲车（RV）零售商进行谈判，双方打算在销售和租赁方面进行合作，并探索开发和生产电动休闲车的机会。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：美股涨跌不一，比特币大跌区块链概念集体走弱</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：美股涨跌不一，比特币大跌区块链概念集体走弱\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-22 21:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月22日（周二），美股开盘涨跌不一。道琼斯指数开盘下跌22点，跌幅0.06%，报33855点；标普500指数开盘下跌2.0点，跌幅0.05%，报4222.8点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨0.2点，涨幅0.03%，报14141.7点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4899cfec1286397933f077ece3d3d8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>比特币跌破29500美元/枚，日内跌幅6.75%。区块链概念股普跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NCTY\">第九城市</a>跌超10%，MicroStrategy跌超8%，Marathon Patent跌6.97%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAN\">嘉楠科技</a>跌6.44%，Riot Blockchain跌4.96%，Coinbase跌3.41%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>开涨8%，公司宣布完成了在市场上发行500万股股票的计划。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPLK\">Splunk</a>开盘大涨10%。市场消息：银湖资本将向Splunk投资10亿美元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">普拉格能源</a>涨超3%，公司CEO称<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>购买了其电解器。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MVIS\">维视图像</a>开盘跌超7%。维视图像表示，已经与Craig-Hallum集团达成一项协议，公司可以随时向该集团发行普通股股份，总价值不超过1.4亿美元，发行股份所得将用于一般公司用途。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">开心汽车</a>涨超3%。开心汽车宣布，公司正在与中国领先的休闲车（RV）零售商进行谈判，双方打算在销售和租赁方面进行合作，并探索开发和生产电动休闲车的机会。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121740775","content_text":"6月22日（周二），美股开盘涨跌不一。道琼斯指数开盘下跌22点，跌幅0.06%，报33855点；标普500指数开盘下跌2.0点，跌幅0.05%，报4222.8点；纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨0.2点，涨幅0.03%，报14141.7点。\n\n比特币跌破29500美元/枚，日内跌幅6.75%。区块链概念股普跌。第九城市跌超10%，MicroStrategy跌超8%，Marathon Patent跌6.97%，嘉楠科技跌6.44%，Riot Blockchain跌4.96%，Coinbase跌3.41%。\n游戏驿站开涨8%，公司宣布完成了在市场上发行500万股股票的计划。\nSplunk开盘大涨10%。市场消息：银湖资本将向Splunk投资10亿美元。\n普拉格能源涨超3%，公司CEO称亚马逊购买了其电解器。\n维视图像开盘跌超7%。维视图像表示，已经与Craig-Hallum集团达成一项协议，公司可以随时向该集团发行普通股股份，总价值不超过1.4亿美元，发行股份所得将用于一般公司用途。\n开心汽车涨超3%。开心汽车宣布，公司正在与中国领先的休闲车（RV）零售商进行谈判，双方打算在销售和租赁方面进行合作，并探索开发和生产电动休闲车的机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161319942,"gmtCreate":1623904660086,"gmtModify":1703823152081,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/161319942","repostId":"1186688505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186688505","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623891302,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186688505?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-17 08:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"优然牧业一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186688505","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目","content":"<p>6月17日消息，本周四<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">优然牧业</a>发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。</p>\n<p>公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。</p>\n<p>此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>申购阶梯：</b></p>\n<p>每手1000股，入场费8,747.26港元。一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。</p>\n<p>乙组门槛为60万股，申购所需资金约5,248,360.09港元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。</p>\n<p>此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：</p>\n<p>筹资用途方面，公司拟将全球发售所得款项净额约32.38亿港元用于以下用途：约75%将分配用于拨付未来两年的投资项目，包括兴建正在建设的牧场、新建的牧场及饲料生产基地并为其购置所需设施设备；约15%或将分配用于牧场购买奶牛；约10%将分配用于营运资金及一般企业用途。</p>\n<p>据悉，优然牧业成立于1984年，曾作为全球排名第五的大型乳制品制造商伊利旗下全资附属公司，2015年将业务从伊利分拆出来运营。目前公司已发展成为中国乳业上游市场的领导者，业务布局覆盖由育种到饲料再到原料奶生产的乳业上游全产业链。</p>\n<p>根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，<b>按2020年收入计，公司是中国规模最大的乳业上游综合产品和服务提供商。</b>公司通过原料奶及反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案两个业务分部，向大型乳制品制造商提供优质原料奶并向牧场提供反刍动物养殖产品及服务，伊利是优然牧业最大的客户。</p>\n<p>财务数据方面，2018年至2020年公司总营收分别为人民币63.34亿元、76.68亿元及117.81亿元，复合年增长率为36.4%；同期录得净利润6.53亿元、8.02亿元及15.41亿元，复合年增长率为53.6%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n优然牧业一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 08:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月17日消息，本周四<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09858\">优然牧业</a>发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。</p>\n<p>公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。</p>\n<p>此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2349a0d398ab0b7c627322586dc1995\" tg-width=\"661\" tg-height=\"550\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>申购阶梯：</b></p>\n<p>每手1000股，入场费8,747.26港元。一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。</p>\n<p>乙组门槛为60万股，申购所需资金约5,248,360.09港元。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/183b55b260a699e4eed6d62b7a2b20d9\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baef5fa28b0cc392f49dad86d7d64628\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"786\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46328b4384685df91ed4359f3713a90a\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。</p>\n<p>此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：</p>\n<p>筹资用途方面，公司拟将全球发售所得款项净额约32.38亿港元用于以下用途：约75%将分配用于拨付未来两年的投资项目，包括兴建正在建设的牧场、新建的牧场及饲料生产基地并为其购置所需设施设备；约15%或将分配用于牧场购买奶牛；约10%将分配用于营运资金及一般企业用途。</p>\n<p>据悉，优然牧业成立于1984年，曾作为全球排名第五的大型乳制品制造商伊利旗下全资附属公司，2015年将业务从伊利分拆出来运营。目前公司已发展成为中国乳业上游市场的领导者，业务布局覆盖由育种到饲料再到原料奶生产的乳业上游全产业链。</p>\n<p>根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，<b>按2020年收入计，公司是中国规模最大的乳业上游综合产品和服务提供商。</b>公司通过原料奶及反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案两个业务分部，向大型乳制品制造商提供优质原料奶并向牧场提供反刍动物养殖产品及服务，伊利是优然牧业最大的客户。</p>\n<p>财务数据方面，2018年至2020年公司总营收分别为人民币63.34亿元、76.68亿元及117.81亿元，复合年增长率为36.4%；同期录得净利润6.53亿元、8.02亿元及15.41亿元，复合年增长率为53.6%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22fb0a544aa253b668379d9f58bbe5a9","relate_stocks":{"09858":"优然牧业"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186688505","content_text":"6月17日消息，本周四优然牧业发布公告，公司发行7.15亿股股份，每股定价6.98港元，每手1000股，预期将于6月18日上市。\n公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：申购阶梯：\n每手1000股，入场费8,747.26港元。一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n乙组门槛为60万股，申购所需资金约5,248,360.09港元。公开发售阶段优然牧业获3.73倍认购，分配至公开发售的发售股份最终数目为7154.4万股，占发售股份总数的10%（任何超额配股权获行使前）。合共接获28283份有效申请，一手中签率80%，认购3手稳中一手。\n此外，国际发售获超额认购，发售股份最终数目为6.44亿股（不包括超额分配股份），相当于发售股份总数的90%。老虎资讯整理相关数据如下表：\n筹资用途方面，公司拟将全球发售所得款项净额约32.38亿港元用于以下用途：约75%将分配用于拨付未来两年的投资项目，包括兴建正在建设的牧场、新建的牧场及饲料生产基地并为其购置所需设施设备；约15%或将分配用于牧场购买奶牛；约10%将分配用于营运资金及一般企业用途。\n据悉，优然牧业成立于1984年，曾作为全球排名第五的大型乳制品制造商伊利旗下全资附属公司，2015年将业务从伊利分拆出来运营。目前公司已发展成为中国乳业上游市场的领导者，业务布局覆盖由育种到饲料再到原料奶生产的乳业上游全产业链。\n根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按2020年收入计，公司是中国规模最大的乳业上游综合产品和服务提供商。公司通过原料奶及反刍动物养殖系统化解决方案两个业务分部，向大型乳制品制造商提供优质原料奶并向牧场提供反刍动物养殖产品及服务，伊利是优然牧业最大的客户。\n财务数据方面，2018年至2020年公司总营收分别为人民币63.34亿元、76.68亿元及117.81亿元，复合年增长率为36.4%；同期录得净利润6.53亿元、8.02亿元及15.41亿元，复合年增长率为53.6%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183462896,"gmtCreate":1623341981015,"gmtModify":1704201399029,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183462896","repostId":"2142224912","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2142224912","pubTimestamp":1623338302,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2142224912?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 23:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"BOSS上市前夜的行业焦虑，移动互联网的思维转变","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2142224912","media":"陆玖财经","summary":"BOSS能突围，本质上是因为贴合了移动互联时代供需两端的需求，找到并解决了当时在线招聘行业的痛点，实现了招聘者与企业的即时沟通。\n据可靠消息称，中国最大的在线招聘平台BOSS直聘将于明日（6月11日）","content":"<p>BOSS能突围，本质上是因为贴合了移动互联时代供需两端的需求，找到并解决了当时在线招聘行业的痛点，实现了招聘者与企业的即时沟通。</p>\n<p>据可靠消息称，中国最大的在线招聘平台BOSS直聘将于明日（6月11日）敲钟，正式登陆纳斯达克市场。</p>\n<p>根据6月9日更新的招股说明书，BOSS直聘本次拟注册ADS数量为11040万份，公开发售4800万份，每份ADS相当于2股A类普通股，发行价9.5美元/ADS。上市后，创始人兼CEO赵鹏将拥有76.2%投票权。</p>\n<p>BOSS直聘2012年底才成立，彼时国内互联网招聘行业巨头林立，不仅有1999年成立的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JOBS\">前程无忧</a>、2000年成立的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZPIN\">智联招聘</a>两巨头，还有当时风头正劲的中华英才网、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WUBA\">58同城</a>等，BOSS直聘起步晚的多，为何不仅在厮杀中存活，还一跃发展成为行业第一？</p>\n<p>有人把BOSS直聘的成功，归功于其2018年世界杯期间“找工作，跟老板谈”的洗脑广告，但广告只能起到锦上添花的作用。BOSS能突围，本质上是因为贴合了移动互联时代供需两端的需求，找到并解决了当时在线招聘行业的痛点，实现了招聘者与企业的即时沟通。</p>\n<p>但是，BOSS似乎也跟上一个时代的智联招聘和前程无忧一样，没有在盈利模式上有所创新，它的上市让整个行业对于规模和盈利，都有了新的深刻思考。</p>\n<p><b>两个时代的碰撞</b></p>\n<p>前程无忧2020年财报显示，2019年中国采取其网络招聘服务的独立雇主数量从2019年的422,458家下降至360,755家，整体下滑14.6%。然而，大概规模的独立雇主的收入仍上涨了1.8%，因为他们的战略是聚焦庞大的用户群体，这些雇主的招聘计划和预算令他们在危机处境下展现出更强的适应性和可持续性。</p>\n<p>前程无忧为了保持盈利积极拥抱大企业，BOSS直聘和前程无忧的思路却相差甚远，向众多中小微企业敞开大门。</p>\n<p>艾瑞咨询报告表明，近两年来，中国小微企业数量达到8000万家，占中国整体注册企业数量的近70%，当前中小微企业仍然是中国市场的主体。</p>\n<p>中小微企业为中国经济注入重要活力、提供韧性，同时支撑起人力资源市场的用人需求。然而当前中小企业微面临的招聘困境比想象中更严峻，中国社科院数据显示，53%以上的小微企业常年存在招工需求，79%的小微企业存在阶段性招工需求，但其中只有11.7%的小微企业招工需求得到满足。招人难是中小企业一直深受困扰的问题。</p>\n<p>面对中小企业招工难的“怪症”，BOSS直聘开出药方。BOSS直聘的招股书中显示，截至2021年3月，在BOSS直聘服务的630万家认证企业中，有520万家为中小企业，占总数的82.6%。</p>\n<p>依托于“移动+<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>匹配+直聊”战略，BOSS直聘一方面采用智能匹配机制，平台会更关照中小企业，向其导流；另一方面，BOSS可以通过平台直接和求职者沟通，与其他传统的雇主等待求职者简历的方式不同，求职者更容易被打动，企业也更容易找到人才。</p>\n<p>BOSS直聘2020年的总营收规模同比接近翻倍，而前程无忧虽然保住了利润，总营收规模却略有下降。在疫情中，中小微企业的韧性再度体现，招聘需求依然强烈，可能甚至超过大型企业。</p>\n<p><b>赚钱重要还是增长重要</b></p>\n<p>BOSS直聘被质疑较多的一点，是2019、2020、2021年一季度，三个报告期，其经营利润率、净利润率和经调整后净利润率均为负。简单点说，BOSS直聘不赚钱。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11a05f290d415d29f13bfa9eae0461a0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<h2></h2>\n<p>反观前程无忧，2019、2020年净利润率分别为13.15%、29.04%，经调整后净利润率分别为36.93%、33.02%；猎聘2019、2020年的年度溢利也均为正。同这两家上市企业相比，BOSS的模式似乎没有跑通，盈利能力存疑。</p>\n<p>不过，互联网时代，赚钱可能不是短期内最重要的事，增长有时候比赚钱更重要。最典型的两个例子是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>，贝壳在上市前亏损幅度较大，大量舆论认为贝壳前途堪忧，但贝壳在稳固行业内统治地位之后，一举翻身，连续两个季度实现盈利。拼多多目前还没有持续盈利，但其用户数量的发展、资本市场的表现，也已经让其基本摆脱因“模式”而受到的质疑。</p>\n<p>规模的增长代表了未来有可能盈利来源的盘面变大，也代表了潜在盈利能力的提高。</p>\n<p>从这一角度重新审视BOSS直聘、前程无忧、猎聘3家企业，前程无忧虽然目前规模最大，但2019-2020年总营收规模在缩减；猎聘同期同比增长率为23.6%；BOSS直聘在疫情期间则实现了近乎翻倍的增长。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4bc2fab391c83e6c8c9deff88f89af\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<h2></h2>\n<p>此外，从活跃用户数量上看，BOSS直聘的发展同样优于另外两家。根据BOSS直聘的招股说明书，截至今年3月底，BOSS直聘的月活跃用户数为2490万，年复合增长率高达71.8%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">国信证券</a>整理Questmobile数据结果表明，同样截至3月底，BOSS直聘的用户数量为2804万，前程无忧和猎聘的用户数量分别为1435万和756万。</p>\n<p>BOSS直聘现在的发展势头有点像前几年的拼多多，谁也说不好它未来会不会给整个行业带来更大的惊喜。</p>\n<p><b>老牌玩家如何重新定位自己</b></p>\n<p>艾瑞咨询统计数据显示，2020年中国网络招聘市场规模为108亿元，预计到2023年将增长至147.8亿元，3年期间预计年复合增长率约为11%。其中，2020年PC端月平均覆盖用户人数为7400万人，日均覆盖人数550万人；移动端月均独立设备数在3000万台以上。</p>\n<p>同时，2020年PC端日均覆盖人数、用户停留时长等核心指标均呈下降趋势，而移动端月总有效使用时间平均增长30%，日均独立设备数同比增速平均值接近25%。</p>\n<p>数据表明，移动互联时代，求职者将越来越多的时间转移至移动端，而BOSS直聘作为移动互联网时代的产品，称得上是移动互联时代在线求职平台的领军者，在带动在线招聘市场发展上起到重要作用。</p>\n<p>和BOSS直聘相比，智联招聘、前程无忧、猎聘等已经算得上是老牌玩家，他们没有年轻的BOSS强劲的增长势头，但也绝非丧失了竞争力。实际上，老牌玩家在招聘江湖的地位依然很高。</p>\n<p>有多年从事招聘和人力资源行业的业内人士对部分主流的互联网招聘平台进行了评价：“前程无忧的库基本是最全的，前些年假简历多一些，操作界面，我个人不是非常喜欢。前程无忧和猎聘都有专门对猎头端开辟的系统，相对友好。脉脉和领英高级职位多一些，领英是外企。智联级别低一点，南北都用，大众化，HR一般喜欢开。58就是招聘农民工的。BOSS可以定向选择公司，一键邀请，但整体收费比较高。”</p>\n<p>上述人士认为，BOSS的成功主要有赖以下几个原因：“聚焦互联网行业，更加专注；倡导企业各条线负责人直接和候选人对话沟通；产品上有细分，很多细分套餐讲的特别好；聊天的运营模式，更容易把故事讲好。”</p>\n<p>不过，针对BOSS这些特点，《增长思维》专栏作者、混沌大学创新领教李云龙撰文有不同的看法：“与应聘者的连接虽然简单了，但是在面试端加大了被爽约的成本，在发offer之后增加了被放鸽子的成本，在入职后增加了短期离职的成本，这些是非常贵的，远远大于在前面连接端带来的一点便利。企业和应聘者追求的其实都是‘确定性’，BOSS直聘提供的是‘便捷性’和‘更多可能性’，有偏差。而我们作为雇主方之所谓开始弃用BOSS直聘，就是因为‘交易价值’不够。”</p>\n<p>甲之蜜糖，乙之砒霜。从业内人士的评价可以看出，目前的平台没有哪一个有绝对的优劣，竞争还在继续。</p>\n<p>艾媒咨询2019年发布的报告中同样指出， BOSS直聘的模式在实际操作中往往存在较多困难，效果大打折扣，“一方面，企业老板缺乏足够的精力与众多求职者进行直接沟通;另一方面，求职者无法避免不匹配企业造成的信息骚扰。由于沟通门槛降低而带来的信息泛滥，让企业老板和求职者都疲于应对，业内也纷纷质疑其模式更趋向于营销噱头而非创新。”</p>\n<p>老牌玩家重新定义自己，需要在充分发挥自身庞大人才库储备的基础上，慢慢的从PC互联网产品思维向移动互联网产品思维转变，尽量降低招聘双方的沟通成本，但同时要避免因转型过快，反而丧失之前“确定性”的优势。</p>\n<p><b>陆玖评论：盈利模式也需要创新</b></p>\n<p>移动互联网时代的成功者，正在排队上市，明日的BOSS直聘，接下来的叮咚买菜、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">每日优鲜</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSR\">Soul</a>、以及传言已久的滴滴，未来四个季度，移动互联网的创业者门大概率会全部完成IPO，这个时代彻底收割完毕。</p>\n<p>招聘领域在中国，一直一分为三，金字塔顶端人群的猎头行业、中高端的在线招聘、低端的本地零散招聘，在BOSS直聘出现之前，智联招聘和前程无忧两家几乎垄断了在线招聘行业，但是移动互联网时代的到来，让一切都发生了变化，由于它随时随地可直接联系的特性，迅速地向猎头和本地招聘两头扩张，一些次顶级的人才，也会在BOSS上找工作，而服务业的大量需求也在转向BOSS。</p>\n<p>里德·霍夫曼在《联盟》一书中阐述了今天全新的用工关系，BOSS直聘像聊天一样找工作的模式，也正好印证了这种关系的发生，应聘者和招聘者正在更加平等高效的存在于市场之中。</p>\n<p>但是，如今的BOSS估值在80亿美金左右，还是没有突破一百亿，纵观世界范围内，BOSS的估值无人能及，这个赛道最大的问题就是，一切没有产生良好利润的盈利模式。</p>\n<p>在大部分企业中，中低级别的岗位，企业都不会支付过高的溢价，能够产生巨大利润的猎头行业对于招聘公司来说，又极其考验在行业中的人脉和资源，平台型企业一般这一块也做不好。</p>\n<p>BOSS今天与智联招聘和前程无忧相比的优势很明显，表现在用户活跃度、用户数量以及市场规模上，但是在盈利手段这一块，其实BOSS本身也没有太大的突破。</p>\n<p>BOSS直聘之所以获得了更大的估值，本质原因还是因为移动互联网赋予它的一些产品特性，导致规模效应。BOSS今天之所以仍然维持着高额的营销费用，依然是在寻求更大的规模，哪怕将来大家的盈利手段都是一致的，但是只要确保自己的规模最大，那么对于行业的利润分配权也就越强势。</p>\n<p>作为一家年轻的互联网公司，BOSS直聘完成了产品上的创新和再定义，但是那么如何在规模上寻求盈利手段的突破，才是BOSS上市之后要解决的一个问题。</p>\n<p>真相无法揭露，只能接近。</p>","source":"lsy1598586301482","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBOSS上市前夜的行业焦虑，移动互联网的思维转变\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 23:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-10/doc-ikqcfnca0338227.shtml><strong>陆玖财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BOSS能突围，本质上是因为贴合了移动互联时代供需两端的需求，找到并解决了当时在线招聘行业的痛点，实现了招聘者与企业的即时沟通。\n据可靠消息称，中国最大的在线招聘平台BOSS直聘将于明日（6月11日）敲钟，正式登陆纳斯达克市场。\n根据6月9日更新的招股说明书，BOSS直聘本次拟注册ADS数量为11040万份，公开发售4800万份，每份ADS相当于2股A类普通股，发行价9.5美元/ADS。上市后，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-10/doc-ikqcfnca0338227.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40fae3743b192b2efbf26dea717974b2","relate_stocks":{"BZ":"BOSS直聘"},"source_url":"http://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2021-06-10/doc-ikqcfnca0338227.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2142224912","content_text":"BOSS能突围，本质上是因为贴合了移动互联时代供需两端的需求，找到并解决了当时在线招聘行业的痛点，实现了招聘者与企业的即时沟通。\n据可靠消息称，中国最大的在线招聘平台BOSS直聘将于明日（6月11日）敲钟，正式登陆纳斯达克市场。\n根据6月9日更新的招股说明书，BOSS直聘本次拟注册ADS数量为11040万份，公开发售4800万份，每份ADS相当于2股A类普通股，发行价9.5美元/ADS。上市后，创始人兼CEO赵鹏将拥有76.2%投票权。\nBOSS直聘2012年底才成立，彼时国内互联网招聘行业巨头林立，不仅有1999年成立的前程无忧、2000年成立的智联招聘两巨头，还有当时风头正劲的中华英才网、58同城等，BOSS直聘起步晚的多，为何不仅在厮杀中存活，还一跃发展成为行业第一？\n有人把BOSS直聘的成功，归功于其2018年世界杯期间“找工作，跟老板谈”的洗脑广告，但广告只能起到锦上添花的作用。BOSS能突围，本质上是因为贴合了移动互联时代供需两端的需求，找到并解决了当时在线招聘行业的痛点，实现了招聘者与企业的即时沟通。\n但是，BOSS似乎也跟上一个时代的智联招聘和前程无忧一样，没有在盈利模式上有所创新，它的上市让整个行业对于规模和盈利，都有了新的深刻思考。\n两个时代的碰撞\n前程无忧2020年财报显示，2019年中国采取其网络招聘服务的独立雇主数量从2019年的422,458家下降至360,755家，整体下滑14.6%。然而，大概规模的独立雇主的收入仍上涨了1.8%，因为他们的战略是聚焦庞大的用户群体，这些雇主的招聘计划和预算令他们在危机处境下展现出更强的适应性和可持续性。\n前程无忧为了保持盈利积极拥抱大企业，BOSS直聘和前程无忧的思路却相差甚远，向众多中小微企业敞开大门。\n艾瑞咨询报告表明，近两年来，中国小微企业数量达到8000万家，占中国整体注册企业数量的近70%，当前中小微企业仍然是中国市场的主体。\n中小微企业为中国经济注入重要活力、提供韧性，同时支撑起人力资源市场的用人需求。然而当前中小企业微面临的招聘困境比想象中更严峻，中国社科院数据显示，53%以上的小微企业常年存在招工需求，79%的小微企业存在阶段性招工需求，但其中只有11.7%的小微企业招工需求得到满足。招人难是中小企业一直深受困扰的问题。\n面对中小企业招工难的“怪症”，BOSS直聘开出药方。BOSS直聘的招股书中显示，截至2021年3月，在BOSS直聘服务的630万家认证企业中，有520万家为中小企业，占总数的82.6%。\n依托于“移动+智能匹配+直聊”战略，BOSS直聘一方面采用智能匹配机制，平台会更关照中小企业，向其导流；另一方面，BOSS可以通过平台直接和求职者沟通，与其他传统的雇主等待求职者简历的方式不同，求职者更容易被打动，企业也更容易找到人才。\nBOSS直聘2020年的总营收规模同比接近翻倍，而前程无忧虽然保住了利润，总营收规模却略有下降。在疫情中，中小微企业的韧性再度体现，招聘需求依然强烈，可能甚至超过大型企业。\n赚钱重要还是增长重要\nBOSS直聘被质疑较多的一点，是2019、2020、2021年一季度，三个报告期，其经营利润率、净利润率和经调整后净利润率均为负。简单点说，BOSS直聘不赚钱。\n\n\n反观前程无忧，2019、2020年净利润率分别为13.15%、29.04%，经调整后净利润率分别为36.93%、33.02%；猎聘2019、2020年的年度溢利也均为正。同这两家上市企业相比，BOSS的模式似乎没有跑通，盈利能力存疑。\n不过，互联网时代，赚钱可能不是短期内最重要的事，增长有时候比赚钱更重要。最典型的两个例子是贝壳和拼多多，贝壳在上市前亏损幅度较大，大量舆论认为贝壳前途堪忧，但贝壳在稳固行业内统治地位之后，一举翻身，连续两个季度实现盈利。拼多多目前还没有持续盈利，但其用户数量的发展、资本市场的表现，也已经让其基本摆脱因“模式”而受到的质疑。\n规模的增长代表了未来有可能盈利来源的盘面变大，也代表了潜在盈利能力的提高。\n从这一角度重新审视BOSS直聘、前程无忧、猎聘3家企业，前程无忧虽然目前规模最大，但2019-2020年总营收规模在缩减；猎聘同期同比增长率为23.6%；BOSS直聘在疫情期间则实现了近乎翻倍的增长。\n\n\n此外，从活跃用户数量上看，BOSS直聘的发展同样优于另外两家。根据BOSS直聘的招股说明书，截至今年3月底，BOSS直聘的月活跃用户数为2490万，年复合增长率高达71.8%。\n国信证券整理Questmobile数据结果表明，同样截至3月底，BOSS直聘的用户数量为2804万，前程无忧和猎聘的用户数量分别为1435万和756万。\nBOSS直聘现在的发展势头有点像前几年的拼多多，谁也说不好它未来会不会给整个行业带来更大的惊喜。\n老牌玩家如何重新定位自己\n艾瑞咨询统计数据显示，2020年中国网络招聘市场规模为108亿元，预计到2023年将增长至147.8亿元，3年期间预计年复合增长率约为11%。其中，2020年PC端月平均覆盖用户人数为7400万人，日均覆盖人数550万人；移动端月均独立设备数在3000万台以上。\n同时，2020年PC端日均覆盖人数、用户停留时长等核心指标均呈下降趋势，而移动端月总有效使用时间平均增长30%，日均独立设备数同比增速平均值接近25%。\n数据表明，移动互联时代，求职者将越来越多的时间转移至移动端，而BOSS直聘作为移动互联网时代的产品，称得上是移动互联时代在线求职平台的领军者，在带动在线招聘市场发展上起到重要作用。\n和BOSS直聘相比，智联招聘、前程无忧、猎聘等已经算得上是老牌玩家，他们没有年轻的BOSS强劲的增长势头，但也绝非丧失了竞争力。实际上，老牌玩家在招聘江湖的地位依然很高。\n有多年从事招聘和人力资源行业的业内人士对部分主流的互联网招聘平台进行了评价：“前程无忧的库基本是最全的，前些年假简历多一些，操作界面，我个人不是非常喜欢。前程无忧和猎聘都有专门对猎头端开辟的系统，相对友好。脉脉和领英高级职位多一些，领英是外企。智联级别低一点，南北都用，大众化，HR一般喜欢开。58就是招聘农民工的。BOSS可以定向选择公司，一键邀请，但整体收费比较高。”\n上述人士认为，BOSS的成功主要有赖以下几个原因：“聚焦互联网行业，更加专注；倡导企业各条线负责人直接和候选人对话沟通；产品上有细分，很多细分套餐讲的特别好；聊天的运营模式，更容易把故事讲好。”\n不过，针对BOSS这些特点，《增长思维》专栏作者、混沌大学创新领教李云龙撰文有不同的看法：“与应聘者的连接虽然简单了，但是在面试端加大了被爽约的成本，在发offer之后增加了被放鸽子的成本，在入职后增加了短期离职的成本，这些是非常贵的，远远大于在前面连接端带来的一点便利。企业和应聘者追求的其实都是‘确定性’，BOSS直聘提供的是‘便捷性’和‘更多可能性’，有偏差。而我们作为雇主方之所谓开始弃用BOSS直聘，就是因为‘交易价值’不够。”\n甲之蜜糖，乙之砒霜。从业内人士的评价可以看出，目前的平台没有哪一个有绝对的优劣，竞争还在继续。\n艾媒咨询2019年发布的报告中同样指出， BOSS直聘的模式在实际操作中往往存在较多困难，效果大打折扣，“一方面，企业老板缺乏足够的精力与众多求职者进行直接沟通;另一方面，求职者无法避免不匹配企业造成的信息骚扰。由于沟通门槛降低而带来的信息泛滥，让企业老板和求职者都疲于应对，业内也纷纷质疑其模式更趋向于营销噱头而非创新。”\n老牌玩家重新定义自己，需要在充分发挥自身庞大人才库储备的基础上，慢慢的从PC互联网产品思维向移动互联网产品思维转变，尽量降低招聘双方的沟通成本，但同时要避免因转型过快，反而丧失之前“确定性”的优势。\n陆玖评论：盈利模式也需要创新\n移动互联网时代的成功者，正在排队上市，明日的BOSS直聘，接下来的叮咚买菜、每日优鲜、Soul、以及传言已久的滴滴，未来四个季度，移动互联网的创业者门大概率会全部完成IPO，这个时代彻底收割完毕。\n招聘领域在中国，一直一分为三，金字塔顶端人群的猎头行业、中高端的在线招聘、低端的本地零散招聘，在BOSS直聘出现之前，智联招聘和前程无忧两家几乎垄断了在线招聘行业，但是移动互联网时代的到来，让一切都发生了变化，由于它随时随地可直接联系的特性，迅速地向猎头和本地招聘两头扩张，一些次顶级的人才，也会在BOSS上找工作，而服务业的大量需求也在转向BOSS。\n里德·霍夫曼在《联盟》一书中阐述了今天全新的用工关系，BOSS直聘像聊天一样找工作的模式，也正好印证了这种关系的发生，应聘者和招聘者正在更加平等高效的存在于市场之中。\n但是，如今的BOSS估值在80亿美金左右，还是没有突破一百亿，纵观世界范围内，BOSS的估值无人能及，这个赛道最大的问题就是，一切没有产生良好利润的盈利模式。\n在大部分企业中，中低级别的岗位，企业都不会支付过高的溢价，能够产生巨大利润的猎头行业对于招聘公司来说，又极其考验在行业中的人脉和资源，平台型企业一般这一块也做不好。\nBOSS今天与智联招聘和前程无忧相比的优势很明显，表现在用户活跃度、用户数量以及市场规模上，但是在盈利手段这一块，其实BOSS本身也没有太大的突破。\nBOSS直聘之所以获得了更大的估值，本质原因还是因为移动互联网赋予它的一些产品特性，导致规模效应。BOSS今天之所以仍然维持着高额的营销费用，依然是在寻求更大的规模，哪怕将来大家的盈利手段都是一致的，但是只要确保自己的规模最大，那么对于行业的利润分配权也就越强势。\n作为一家年轻的互联网公司，BOSS直聘完成了产品上的创新和再定义，但是那么如何在规模上寻求盈利手段的突破，才是BOSS上市之后要解决的一个问题。\n真相无法揭露，只能接近。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":66,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171186806,"gmtCreate":1626714193405,"gmtModify":1703763915538,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment my post","listText":"like and comment my post","text":"like and comment my post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171186806","repostId":"1159080706","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160013727,"gmtCreate":1623766257269,"gmtModify":1703818746177,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"up","listText":"up","text":"up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/160013727","repostId":"1129680978","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129680978","pubTimestamp":1623763156,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129680978?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"时隔三个月“恐怖数据”再陷负值，金银为何不为所动？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129680978","media":"金十数据","summary":"如何解读-1.3%的零售销售月率？\n\n周二20:30，美国5月零售销售月率公布，录得-1.3%，差于预期的-0.7%，时隔三个月再次录得负值，但前值上修至0.9%。核心零售销售月率录得-0.7%，同样","content":"<blockquote>\n 如何解读-1.3%的零售销售月率？\n</blockquote>\n<p>周二20:30，美国5月零售销售月率公布，<b>录得-1.3%</b>，差于预期的-0.7%，<b>时隔三个月再次录得负值</b>，但前值上修至0.9%。核心零售销售月率录得-0.7%，同样差于预期。</p>\n<p>数据公布后，现货金银、美元指数暂时波动不大，美国10年期国债收益率从1.487%升至1.501%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14c52c5413540fb495085debcbdd6155\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"905\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/830c9098b1816fcbfed5b41efced1b13\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"905\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>“恐怖数据”为何下滑？</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>的“神预测”再次应验，其预期整体零售销售月率将下降1.4%，除去汽车和汽油的零售销售月率下滑1.0%。</b></p>\n<p>加拿大<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNS\">丰业银行</a>指出，汽车销量拖累美国零售销售数据录得下降：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “因芯片短缺，5月美国新车销量大幅下降8.2%，CPI数据也显示出上月汽车价格增长了1.6%。而汽车销量在总零售销量中占比约为20%。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>但不包括汽车在内的销量数据也没有如预期般录得增长，看来即使重新开业，其他行业的销售情况并没有显得更具有韧性。</p>\n<p>forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski评论，总体零售销售达到了我们当时的预期，上月的修正数据中仍有亮点。在3月和4月两个相当强劲的月份之后，这一数据确实出现了下降。<b>该数据可能表明，消费者正将支出更多地从购买商品转向旅游和娱乐等服务，因为酒店重新开张，人们希望出门走走。</b></p>\n<p>还有机构评论，现在超过一半的美国成年人已经完全接种了疫苗，这推动了航空旅行、酒店住宿、外出就餐和娱乐等活动的需求。疫苗接种、政府万亿美元刺激措施和创纪录的低利率都在刺激需求。</p>\n<p><b>市场</b><b><b>静候美联储表态</b></b></p>\n<p>数据公布超五分钟后，分析师Chris Anstey指出，市场对此反应仍不太大，<b>交易员们似乎对这些数据表现处之泰然，正在静候美联储明天的表态</b>。无论如何，零售数据无疑将是美联储关注的关键经济指标之一，鉴于数据降幅超出预期，可能会缓解通胀担忧以及美联储转变政策方向的迫切性。</p>\n<p>美国银行经济学家Michelle Meyer与Joseph Song在5月就业报告出炉后，于分析报告指出，就业报告意味着美联储将持续以审慎和微小的步伐，朝着量化宽松退场的最终方向前进，也就是开始讨论购债计划，不过距离真正退场仍有很长一段距离。</p>\n<p><b>美联储可能在6月例会讨论何时和如何退出2020年开始的每个月1200亿美元的购债计划。</b>不过，预计在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会召开之前，美联储不会做出任何决定，且在2022年前不会变更购债规模。</p>\n<p>今日金十vip风险预警也提到，周四凌晨的美联储决议有三大看点，点击链接查看。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96dfbd1c98c19f625c4e77768561e86f\" tg-width=\"817\" tg-height=\"767\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>时隔三个月“恐怖数据”再陷负值，金银为何不为所动？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n时隔三个月“恐怖数据”再陷负值，金银为何不为所动？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76068><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>如何解读-1.3%的零售销售月率？\n\n周二20:30，美国5月零售销售月率公布，录得-1.3%，差于预期的-0.7%，时隔三个月再次录得负值，但前值上修至0.9%。核心零售销售月率录得-0.7%，同样差于预期。\n数据公布后，现货金银、美元指数暂时波动不大，美国10年期国债收益率从1.487%升至1.501%。\n\n“恐怖数据”为何下滑？\n美国银行的“神预测”再次应验，其预期整体零售销售月率将下降...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76068\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/76068","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129680978","content_text":"如何解读-1.3%的零售销售月率？\n\n周二20:30，美国5月零售销售月率公布，录得-1.3%，差于预期的-0.7%，时隔三个月再次录得负值，但前值上修至0.9%。核心零售销售月率录得-0.7%，同样差于预期。\n数据公布后，现货金银、美元指数暂时波动不大，美国10年期国债收益率从1.487%升至1.501%。\n\n“恐怖数据”为何下滑？\n美国银行的“神预测”再次应验，其预期整体零售销售月率将下降1.4%，除去汽车和汽油的零售销售月率下滑1.0%。\n加拿大丰业银行指出，汽车销量拖累美国零售销售数据录得下降：\n\n “因芯片短缺，5月美国新车销量大幅下降8.2%，CPI数据也显示出上月汽车价格增长了1.6%。而汽车销量在总零售销量中占比约为20%。”\n\n但不包括汽车在内的销量数据也没有如预期般录得增长，看来即使重新开业，其他行业的销售情况并没有显得更具有韧性。\nforexlive分析师Greg Michalowski评论，总体零售销售达到了我们当时的预期，上月的修正数据中仍有亮点。在3月和4月两个相当强劲的月份之后，这一数据确实出现了下降。该数据可能表明，消费者正将支出更多地从购买商品转向旅游和娱乐等服务，因为酒店重新开张，人们希望出门走走。\n还有机构评论，现在超过一半的美国成年人已经完全接种了疫苗，这推动了航空旅行、酒店住宿、外出就餐和娱乐等活动的需求。疫苗接种、政府万亿美元刺激措施和创纪录的低利率都在刺激需求。\n市场静候美联储表态\n数据公布超五分钟后，分析师Chris Anstey指出，市场对此反应仍不太大，交易员们似乎对这些数据表现处之泰然，正在静候美联储明天的表态。无论如何，零售数据无疑将是美联储关注的关键经济指标之一，鉴于数据降幅超出预期，可能会缓解通胀担忧以及美联储转变政策方向的迫切性。\n美国银行经济学家Michelle Meyer与Joseph Song在5月就业报告出炉后，于分析报告指出，就业报告意味着美联储将持续以审慎和微小的步伐，朝着量化宽松退场的最终方向前进，也就是开始讨论购债计划，不过距离真正退场仍有很长一段距离。\n美联储可能在6月例会讨论何时和如何退出2020年开始的每个月1200亿美元的购债计划。不过，预计在8月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会召开之前，美联储不会做出任何决定，且在2022年前不会变更购债规模。\n今日金十vip风险预警也提到，周四凌晨的美联储决议有三大看点，点击链接查看。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187773408,"gmtCreate":1623765479404,"gmtModify":1703818690982,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like and comment","listText":"like and comment","text":"like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187773408","repostId":"1129812848","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129812848","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623764964,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129812848?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:49","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"WTI原油期货触及72美元/桶，日内涨1.58%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129812848","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月15日，WTI原油期货触及72美元/桶，日内涨1.58%，续刷2018年10月以来新高。","content":"<p>6月15日，WTI原油期货触及72美元/桶，日内涨1.58%，续刷2018年10月以来新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b108850b1fd8b97bd0dcfbb836f221f\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>WTI原油期货触及72美元/桶，日内涨1.58%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWTI原油期货触及72美元/桶，日内涨1.58%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 21:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月15日，WTI原油期货触及72美元/桶，日内涨1.58%，续刷2018年10月以来新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b108850b1fd8b97bd0dcfbb836f221f\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ed81b1e72df2f2f0f21497fe08eaed","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129812848","content_text":"6月15日，WTI原油期货触及72美元/桶，日内涨1.58%，续刷2018年10月以来新高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":26,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112637156,"gmtCreate":1622865229175,"gmtModify":1704192708685,"author":{"id":"3585892771405380","authorId":"3585892771405380","name":"feldman","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f552903947bc1c432539267262545fd3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585892771405380","authorIdStr":"3585892771405380"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh man, so stop game?","listText":"oh man, so stop game?","text":"oh man, so stop game?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112637156","repostId":"1160563289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160563289","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622864224,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160563289?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160563289","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in ","content":"<p>FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in the Russell U.S. index.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"title\">\nFTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-05 11:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in the Russell U.S. index.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","TSLA":"特斯拉","JPM":"摩根大通","IWM":"罗素2000指数ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160563289","content_text":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 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