MAH18 personal page - To The Moon

MAH18

MAH18

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5Followers

3Topic

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07-19

What pullback. Have been down USD 77k since 2022.

01-15

$Singtel(Z74.SI)$ ok

2023-12-14

$IronNet, Inc.(IRNTQ)$ Best Buy

2023-12-13

$Appian Corp(APPN)$ 🤷‍♂️

2023-12-13

$Confluent, Inc.(CFLT)$

2023-06-27

[NosePick] [NosePick] [NosePick] [NosePick] [NosePick]

2023-06-26

[Sad] [Sad] [Sad] [Sad] [Sad]

2023-06-25

too many Rs

@TigerEvents:Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999

2023-06-25

[Sad] [Sad] [Sad] [Sad] [Sad]

2023-06-24

🎁🎁🎁🎁🎁

2023-06-23

[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]

2023-06-22

weee... 11 R's....[LOL]

2023-06-21

did the claw become slower,

2023-06-20

[Doubt] [Doubt] [Doubt] [Doubt]

2023-06-19

what to do with 10 R's.

2023-06-18

Happy 9th Anniversary

2023-06-17

what to do with 7 R's

2023-06-16

Light up TIGR soon..

@TigerEvents:Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999

2023-06-16

Already more than 11000 lighted

2023-06-15

[Happy] [Happy] [Happy]

Go to Tiger App to see more news

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[Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191357106524168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9979108365,"gmtCreate":1687666506258,"gmtModify":1687666509751,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"too many Rs","listText":"too many Rs","text":"too many 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Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&amp;Cs apply.👉 <a href=\"https://tigr.link/lightupsg\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to start play</a>","listText":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! 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Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&Cs apply.👉 Click here to start 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[Sad] [Sad] [Sad] 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[Cool] [Cool] [Cool] [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/190390448804088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189913285988600,"gmtCreate":1687391274043,"gmtModify":1687391277692,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"weee... 11 R's....[LOL]&nbsp;","listText":"weee... 11 R's....[LOL]&nbsp;","text":"weee... 11 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soon..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187951708512384","repostId":"9970552986","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9970552986,"gmtCreate":1684749089245,"gmtModify":1686052573124,"author":{"id":"3527667667103859","authorId":"3527667667103859","name":"TigerEvents","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c266ef25181ace18bec1262357bbe1a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667667103859","authorIdStr":"3527667667103859"},"themes":[],"title":"Light up your investing with Tiger, play and win prizes worth up to USD 999","htmlText":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&amp;Cs apply.👉 <a href=\"https://tigr.link/lightupsg\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to start play</a>","listText":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&amp;Cs apply.👉 <a href=\"https://tigr.link/lightupsg\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to start play</a>","text":"Join our exclusive \"Light up Your Investing\" campaign with Tiger!Participate in our game and win fantastic prizes worth up to USD 999*!Unveil the allure of various regions as you progress through exciting game levels.But wait, there's more! Along your journey, uncover hidden rewards and unlock exclusive bonuses that will supercharge your investing game!Not only will you gain valuable knowledge and insights, but you'll also compete with fellow investors for the top spot on our leaderboard!Invite your friends and embark on this epic investing adventure together! Let's light up the world of investing with Tiger!Don't miss out on this limited-time opportunity!Campaign period: 6th June to 27th June. *T&Cs apply.👉 Click here to start play","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0b6e3d13593eac0f4cc3fdb8b6bf8056","width":"1200","height":"675"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9970552986","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187786377535664,"gmtCreate":1686873906059,"gmtModify":1686873910095,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Already more than 11000 lighted","listText":"Already more than 11000 lighted","text":"Already more than 11000 lighted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187786377535664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187643423379696,"gmtCreate":1686839007876,"gmtModify":1686839017001,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586065449223644","authorIdStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy] [Happy] [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187643423379696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9915314956,"gmtCreate":1664956345175,"gmtModify":1676537535669,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"[Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915314956","repostId":"2272834099","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272834099","pubTimestamp":1664983956,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272834099?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-05 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272834099","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"There's no guarantee these Buffett stocks will take off. But the chances appear to be pretty good.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b>.</p><p>That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire&#39;s portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn&#39;t be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.</p><h2>1. Chevron</h2><p><b>Chevron</b> now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett&#39;s portfolio. It&#39;s one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.</p><p>The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron&#39;s share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.</p><p>I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.</p><p>All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron&#39;s valuation isn&#39;t so great that the stock wouldn&#39;t benefit from further global supply tightening.</p><h2>2. Occidental Petroleum</h2><p>Buffett has become a huge fan of <b>Occidental Petroleum</b>. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.</p><p>Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire&#39;s entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.</p><p>Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.</p><p>But there&#39;s another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it&#39;s almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.</p><h2>3. Apple</h2><p>You could make a good case that <b>Apple</b> ranks as Buffett&#39;s favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire&#39;s portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire&#39;s &#34;four giants.&#34; The other three &#34;giants&#34; -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.</p><p>Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.</p><p>Don&#39;t think for a second that Apple can&#39;t rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock&#39;s recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don&#39;t always pan out.</p><p>At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple&#39;s new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Warren Buffett Stocks Most Likely to Soar in Q4\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-05 23:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CVX":"雪佛龙","AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","OXY":"西方石油","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/10/04/3-warren-buffett-stocks-most-likely-to-soar-in-q4/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272834099","content_text":"Warren Buffett would probably be the last person on the planet to predict how stocks will perform over the short term. The legendary investor is much more focused on the long-term business prospects for the stocks he buys for Berkshire Hathaway.That is absolutely the correct mindset to have. However, if I had to pick the stocks in Berkshire's portfolio that would probably deliver strong gains over the near term, the decision wouldn't be that difficult. Here are the three Buffett stocks I think are most likely to soar in Q4.1. ChevronChevron now ranks as the fourth-largest position in Buffett's portfolio. It's one of the few stocks that the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has been consistently buying for several consecutive quarters.The oil and gas giant also stands as one of the few big winners for Buffett so far in 2022. Chevron's share price has jumped close to 30% year to date. This gain stemmed in large part from Ukraine war, a move that disrupted the global energy market.I think that Chevron stock will probably move even higher in Q4. Any hopes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end quickly have evaporated. European Union leaders agreed to ban 90% of most Russian oil imports by the end of this year. OPEC+ members are meeting this week to consider cutting oil production.All of this could translate to higher oil prices, which would be bad news for the public but good news for Chevron. With shares trading at around nine times expected earnings, Chevron's valuation isn't so great that the stock wouldn't benefit from further global supply tightening.2. Occidental PetroleumBuffett has become a huge fan of Occidental Petroleum. After months of aggressive buying, Berkshire now owns nearly 21% of the oil and gas company.Occidental has been the best-performing stock in Berkshire's entire portfolio so far this year. Its shares have skyrocketed by more than 120%. At one point, Oxy was up over 150% year to date.Can Occidental keep its momentum going in Q4? I think so. Importantly, the company benefits from the same global dynamics that should help Chevron. The two stocks also share nearly identical forward earnings multiples.But there's another factor that could boost Occidental stock even more this year. In August, Berkshire won regulatory authorization to acquire up to 50% of Occidental. If Buffett keeps buying shares, it's almost a certainty that Occidental stock will keep rising.3. AppleYou could make a good case that Apple ranks as Buffett's favorite stock after Berkshire itself. Apple is by far the biggest holding in Berkshire's portfolio. Buffett has referred to it as one of Berkshire's \"four giants.\" The other three \"giants\" -- the insurance business, BNSF Railway, and Berkshire Hathaway Energy -- are Berkshire subsidiaries.Unlike Chevron and Occidental, Apple has been a loser for Buffett in 2022. Shares of the tech giant have plunged around 20% year to date.Don't think for a second that Apple can't rebound strongly in Q4, though. One key reason behind the stock's recent slide is a Bloomberg report that Apple asked certain suppliers to scale back production of the new iPhone 14. But stories based on anonymous sources don't always pan out.At least one Wall Street analyst, Rosenblatt Securities, thinks that consumers in the U.S. and in other countries could enthusiastically buy Apple's new products. All it would take for Apple stock to soar from current levels is for the company to beat sales expectations during the holiday season.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9912354133,"gmtCreate":1664760839922,"gmtModify":1676537503686,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Bless]&nbsp;","listText":"[Bless]&nbsp;","text":"[Bless]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9912354133","repostId":"2272691220","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2272691220","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Dow Jones publishes the world’s most trusted business news and financial information in a variety of media.","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Dow Jones","id":"106","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99"},"pubTimestamp":1664755882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2272691220?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-03 08:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Investors Need to Know About October's Complicated Stock-Market History","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2272691220","media":"Dow Jones","summary":"While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a \"bear-market killer,\" associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.O","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a &#34;bear-market killer,&#34; associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.</p><p>October, however, is also associated with historic market plunges. And skeptics are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what&#39;s traditionally the roughest period for equities comes to an end.</p><h2>Rough stretch</h2><p>U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, posting their worst skid in the first nine months of any year in two decades. The S&amp;P 500  recorded a monthly loss of 9.3%, its worst September performance since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  fell 8.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite  on Friday pushed its total monthly loss to 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>The indexes had booked modest gains in the first half of the month after investors fully priced in a large interest-rate hike at the FOMC meeting late September as August&#39;s inflation data showed little sign of easing price pressures. However, the central bank&#39;s more-hawkish-than-expected stance caused stocks to give up all those early September gains. The Dow entered its first bear market since March 2020 in the last week of the month, while the benchmark S&amp;P slid to another 2022 low.</p><h2>Bear markets and midterms</h2><p>October&#39;s track record may offer some comfort as it has been a turnaround month, or a &#34;bear killer,&#34; according to the data from Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac.</p><p>&#34;Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&amp;P 500 declined 19.4%),&#34; wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, in a note on Thursday. &#34;Seven of these years were midterm bottoms.&#34;</p><p>Of course 2022 is also a midterm election year, with congressional elections coming up on Nov. 8.</p><p>According to Hirsch, Octobers in the midterm election years are &#34;downright stellar&#34; and usually where the &#34;sweet spot&#34; of the four-year presidential election cycle begins (see chart below).</p><p>&#34;The fourth quarter of the midterm years combines with the first and second quarters of the pre-election years for the best three consecutive quarter span for the market, averaging 19.3% for the DJIA and 20.0% for the S&amp;P 500 (since 1949), and an amazing 29.3% for NASDAQ (since 1971),&#34; wrote Hirsch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e12b4543bc89bc89d7601f09694c8c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>&#39;Atypical period&#39;</h2><p>Skeptics aren&#39;t convinced the pattern will hold true this October. Ralph Bassett, head of investments at Abrdn, an asset-management firm based in Scotland, said these dynamics could only play out in &#34;more normalized years.&#34;</p><p>&#34;This is just such an atypical period for so many reasons,&#34; Bassett told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday. &#34;A lot of mutual funds have their fiscal year-end in October, so there tends to be a lot of buying and selling to manage tax losses. That&#39;s kind of something that we&#39;re going through and you have to be very sensitive to how you manage all of that.&#34;</p><p>An old Wall Street adage, &#34;Sell in May and go away,&#34; refers to the market&#39;s historical underperformance during the six-month period from May to October. Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, which is credited with coining the saying, found investing in stocks from November to April and switching into fixed income the other six months would have &#34;produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.&#34;</p><p>Strategists at Stifel, a wealth-management firm, contend the S&amp;P 500, which has fallen more than 23% from its Jan. 3 record finish, is in a bottoming process. They see positive catalysts between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the start of 2023 as Fed policy plus S&amp;P 500 negative seasonality are headwinds that should subside by then.</p><p>&#34;Monetary policy works with a six-month lag, and between the [Nov. 2] and [Dec. 14] final two Fed meetings of 2022, we do see subtle movement toward a data-dependent Fed pause which would bullishly allow investors to focus on (improving) inflation data rather than policy,&#34; wrote strategists led by Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, in a recent note. &#34;This could reinforce positive market seasonality, which is historically strong for the S&amp;P 500 from November to April.&#34;</p><h2>October crashes</h2><p>Seasonal trends, however, aren&#39;t written in stone. Dow Jones Market Data found the S&amp;P 500 recorded positive returns between May and October in the past six years (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec700aa8aea3c05bd353dadb6dc79d9f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said there are periods in history where October could evoke fear on Wall Street as some large historical market crashes, including those in 1987 and 1929, occurred during the month. The S&amp;P 500 plunged nearly 17% in October 2008 after the implosion of Lehman Brothers, following a 9.1% fall in September.</p><p>&#34;I think that any years where you&#39;ve had a very difficult year for stocks, seasonality should discount it, because there are some other macro forces [that are] pushing on stocks, and you need to see more clarity on those macro forces that are pushing stocks down,&#34; Saglimbene told MarketWatch on Friday. &#34;Frankly, I don&#39;t think we&#39;re going to see a lot of visibility at least over the next few months.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Investors Need to Know About October's Complicated Stock-Market History</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Investors Need to Know About October's Complicated Stock-Market History\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-03 08:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a &#34;bear-market killer,&#34; associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.</p><p>October, however, is also associated with historic market plunges. And skeptics are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what&#39;s traditionally the roughest period for equities comes to an end.</p><h2>Rough stretch</h2><p>U.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, posting their worst skid in the first nine months of any year in two decades. The S&amp;P 500  recorded a monthly loss of 9.3%, its worst September performance since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  fell 8.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite  on Friday pushed its total monthly loss to 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p>The indexes had booked modest gains in the first half of the month after investors fully priced in a large interest-rate hike at the FOMC meeting late September as August&#39;s inflation data showed little sign of easing price pressures. However, the central bank&#39;s more-hawkish-than-expected stance caused stocks to give up all those early September gains. The Dow entered its first bear market since March 2020 in the last week of the month, while the benchmark S&amp;P slid to another 2022 low.</p><h2>Bear markets and midterms</h2><p>October&#39;s track record may offer some comfort as it has been a turnaround month, or a &#34;bear killer,&#34; according to the data from Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac.</p><p>&#34;Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&amp;P 500 declined 19.4%),&#34; wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, in a note on Thursday. &#34;Seven of these years were midterm bottoms.&#34;</p><p>Of course 2022 is also a midterm election year, with congressional elections coming up on Nov. 8.</p><p>According to Hirsch, Octobers in the midterm election years are &#34;downright stellar&#34; and usually where the &#34;sweet spot&#34; of the four-year presidential election cycle begins (see chart below).</p><p>&#34;The fourth quarter of the midterm years combines with the first and second quarters of the pre-election years for the best three consecutive quarter span for the market, averaging 19.3% for the DJIA and 20.0% for the S&amp;P 500 (since 1949), and an amazing 29.3% for NASDAQ (since 1971),&#34; wrote Hirsch.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e12b4543bc89bc89d7601f09694c8c4\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><h2>&#39;Atypical period&#39;</h2><p>Skeptics aren&#39;t convinced the pattern will hold true this October. Ralph Bassett, head of investments at Abrdn, an asset-management firm based in Scotland, said these dynamics could only play out in &#34;more normalized years.&#34;</p><p>&#34;This is just such an atypical period for so many reasons,&#34; Bassett told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday. &#34;A lot of mutual funds have their fiscal year-end in October, so there tends to be a lot of buying and selling to manage tax losses. That&#39;s kind of something that we&#39;re going through and you have to be very sensitive to how you manage all of that.&#34;</p><p>An old Wall Street adage, &#34;Sell in May and go away,&#34; refers to the market&#39;s historical underperformance during the six-month period from May to October. Stock Trader&#39;s Almanac, which is credited with coining the saying, found investing in stocks from November to April and switching into fixed income the other six months would have &#34;produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.&#34;</p><p>Strategists at Stifel, a wealth-management firm, contend the S&amp;P 500, which has fallen more than 23% from its Jan. 3 record finish, is in a bottoming process. They see positive catalysts between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the start of 2023 as Fed policy plus S&amp;P 500 negative seasonality are headwinds that should subside by then.</p><p>&#34;Monetary policy works with a six-month lag, and between the [Nov. 2] and [Dec. 14] final two Fed meetings of 2022, we do see subtle movement toward a data-dependent Fed pause which would bullishly allow investors to focus on (improving) inflation data rather than policy,&#34; wrote strategists led by Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, in a recent note. &#34;This could reinforce positive market seasonality, which is historically strong for the S&amp;P 500 from November to April.&#34;</p><h2>October crashes</h2><p>Seasonal trends, however, aren&#39;t written in stone. Dow Jones Market Data found the S&amp;P 500 recorded positive returns between May and October in the past six years (see chart below).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec700aa8aea3c05bd353dadb6dc79d9f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"394\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said there are periods in history where October could evoke fear on Wall Street as some large historical market crashes, including those in 1987 and 1929, occurred during the month. The S&amp;P 500 plunged nearly 17% in October 2008 after the implosion of Lehman Brothers, following a 9.1% fall in September.</p><p>&#34;I think that any years where you&#39;ve had a very difficult year for stocks, seasonality should discount it, because there are some other macro forces [that are] pushing on stocks, and you need to see more clarity on those macro forces that are pushing stocks down,&#34; Saglimbene told MarketWatch on Friday. &#34;Frankly, I don&#39;t think we&#39;re going to see a lot of visibility at least over the next few months.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","DOG":"道指反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2272691220","content_text":"While September lived up to its reputation as a brutal month for stocks, October tends to be a \"bear-market killer,\" associated with historically strong returns, especially in midterm election years.October, however, is also associated with historic market plunges. And skeptics are warning investors that negative economic fundamentals could overwhelm seasonal trends as what's traditionally the roughest period for equities comes to an end.Rough stretchU.S. stocks ended sharply lower on Friday, posting their worst skid in the first nine months of any year in two decades. The S&P 500  recorded a monthly loss of 9.3%, its worst September performance since 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average  fell 8.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite  on Friday pushed its total monthly loss to 10.5%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.The indexes had booked modest gains in the first half of the month after investors fully priced in a large interest-rate hike at the FOMC meeting late September as August's inflation data showed little sign of easing price pressures. However, the central bank's more-hawkish-than-expected stance caused stocks to give up all those early September gains. The Dow entered its first bear market since March 2020 in the last week of the month, while the benchmark S&P slid to another 2022 low.Bear markets and midtermsOctober's track record may offer some comfort as it has been a turnaround month, or a \"bear killer,\" according to the data from Stock Trader's Almanac.\"Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%),\" wrote Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, in a note on Thursday. \"Seven of these years were midterm bottoms.\"Of course 2022 is also a midterm election year, with congressional elections coming up on Nov. 8.According to Hirsch, Octobers in the midterm election years are \"downright stellar\" and usually where the \"sweet spot\" of the four-year presidential election cycle begins (see chart below).\"The fourth quarter of the midterm years combines with the first and second quarters of the pre-election years for the best three consecutive quarter span for the market, averaging 19.3% for the DJIA and 20.0% for the S&P 500 (since 1949), and an amazing 29.3% for NASDAQ (since 1971),\" wrote Hirsch.'Atypical period'Skeptics aren't convinced the pattern will hold true this October. Ralph Bassett, head of investments at Abrdn, an asset-management firm based in Scotland, said these dynamics could only play out in \"more normalized years.\"\"This is just such an atypical period for so many reasons,\" Bassett told MarketWatch in a phone interview on Thursday. \"A lot of mutual funds have their fiscal year-end in October, so there tends to be a lot of buying and selling to manage tax losses. That's kind of something that we're going through and you have to be very sensitive to how you manage all of that.\"An old Wall Street adage, \"Sell in May and go away,\" refers to the market's historical underperformance during the six-month period from May to October. Stock Trader's Almanac, which is credited with coining the saying, found investing in stocks from November to April and switching into fixed income the other six months would have \"produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950.\"Strategists at Stifel, a wealth-management firm, contend the S&P 500, which has fallen more than 23% from its Jan. 3 record finish, is in a bottoming process. They see positive catalysts between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the start of 2023 as Fed policy plus S&P 500 negative seasonality are headwinds that should subside by then.\"Monetary policy works with a six-month lag, and between the [Nov. 2] and [Dec. 14] final two Fed meetings of 2022, we do see subtle movement toward a data-dependent Fed pause which would bullishly allow investors to focus on (improving) inflation data rather than policy,\" wrote strategists led by Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist, in a recent note. \"This could reinforce positive market seasonality, which is historically strong for the S&P 500 from November to April.\"October crashesSeasonal trends, however, aren't written in stone. Dow Jones Market Data found the S&P 500 recorded positive returns between May and October in the past six years (see chart below).Anthony Saglimbene, chief markets strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said there are periods in history where October could evoke fear on Wall Street as some large historical market crashes, including those in 1987 and 1929, occurred during the month. The S&P 500 plunged nearly 17% in October 2008 after the implosion of Lehman Brothers, following a 9.1% fall in September.\"I think that any years where you've had a very difficult year for stocks, seasonality should discount it, because there are some other macro forces [that are] pushing on stocks, and you need to see more clarity on those macro forces that are pushing stocks down,\" Saglimbene told MarketWatch on Friday. \"Frankly, I don't think we're going to see a lot of visibility at least over the next few months.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919243646,"gmtCreate":1663811391385,"gmtModify":1676537341172,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"[Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919243646","repostId":"1177400795","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177400795","pubTimestamp":1663808053,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177400795?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-22 08:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Stock: Bear vs. Bull","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177400795","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The Southeast Asian tech giant is still a polarizing investment.","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>KEY POINTS</h2><ul><li>Sea Limited’s stock has plunged over the past year.</li><li>The bears believe its e-commerce and gaming businesses will face tough post-pandemic slowdowns as its losses widen.</li><li>The bulls expect it to overcome those near-term challenges with more disciplined spending and the expansion of its fintech ecosystem.</li></ul><p><b>Sea Limited</b>&#39;s stock price has declined more than 80% since it closed at an all-time high of $366.99 last October. The market&#39;s enthusiasm for the Southeast Asian e-commerce and gaming giant fizzled out as its growth decelerated in a post-pandemic market and its losses widened.</p><p>But even after that steep pullback, Sea&#39;s stock has still quadrupled since its IPO nearly five years ago. Let&#39;s review the bear and bull cases for Sea to see if it can stabilize and continue growing over the next few years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a93fbb45507a6f1194233f64aee5119\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><h2>Sea&#39;s delicate balancing act</h2><p>Sea generated 59% of its revenue last quarter from its e-commerce division. This segment houses Shopee, the leading online marketplace in Southeast Asia and Taiwan. Shopee conquered both markets by undercutting its competitors with loss-leading promotions and subsidies.</p><p>Another 31% of Sea&#39;s quarterly revenue came from its gaming unit Garena. Garena generates most of its revenue from a single hit game, <i>Free Fire</i>, which was launched in 2017. <i>Free Fire</i> initially generated a stream of higher-margin revenue for Garena that partly offset Shopee&#39;s losses.</p><p>The remaining 10% of Sea&#39;s revenue came from its nascent fintech business, which includes its SeaMoney payments platform and other financial services. Like Shopee, this growing segment remains deeply unprofitable.</p><p>Simply put, Sea has been balancing several unprofitable businesses on top of a single mobile game. Management likely believed it could maintain that balancing act for at least a few more years as economies of scale kicked in at Shopee and Garena diversified its portfolio with new games. It also expected that shaky scaffolding to support Shopee&#39;s expansion into other crowded e-commerce markets like India and Latin America.</p><h2>What the bears will tell you about that plan</h2><p>The bears believe that, like many e-commerce and gaming companies, Shopee and Garena will both face tough slowdowns in a post-lockdown world.</p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce and other services (including fintech) revenue soared 157% to $4.6 billion in 2021, then grew another 84% year over year to $3.3 billion in the first half of 2022. But within that total, Shopee&#39;s adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss <i>nearly doubled</i> to $2.6 billion in 2021, then widened year over year from $993 million to $1.4 billion in the first half of 2022.</p><p>As Shopee&#39;s growth cooled off and its losses widened, <i>Free Fire</i> lost its momentum. Garena&#39;s bookings rose 44% to $4.6 billion in 2021 but fell 34% year over year to $1.5 billion in the first half of 2022. That slowdown was exacerbated by an abrupt ban in India, one of its top markets, earlier this year. As that profit engine stalls out, Sea&#39;s losses will widen further.</p><p>The bears will claim that Sea&#39;s business is collapsing like a house of cards. Analysts expect its revenue to rise just 25% to $12.4 billion this year as its adjusted EBITDA loss widens to $2 billion. That slowing growth and red ink will make Sea a tough stock to own as interest rates continue to rise.</p><h2>What the bulls will tell you about that plan</h2><p>The bulls will acknowledge that Sea faces a lot of near-term challenges, but they believe it can overcome those hurdles with three main strategies.</p><p>First and foremost, Sea has been reining in Shopee&#39;s expenses by shutting down its operations in India, reducing its presence in Latin America -- which is still dominated by <b>MercadoLibre</b> -- and downsizing its core Southeast Asian business with layoffs in Singapore and Indonesia. Those efforts could gradually right-size its business, narrow its losses, and free up more resources for expanding SeaMoney across Southeast Asia.</p><p>As for <i>Free Fire</i>, it&#39;s still the highest-grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Garena believes it can extend the aging game&#39;s lifespan with fresh content, esports competitions, and an upgraded version called <i>Free Fire MAX</i>. All those strategies could stabilize its growth in a post-pandemic market and buy it more time to develop fresh games.</p><p>Lastly, Sea can afford to operate at a loss for the foreseeable future. It raised more than $6 billion last year in a big stock and convertible bond sale, and it ended last quarter with $6.5 billion in cash and equivalents.</p><p>Analysts still expect Sea&#39;s revenue to grow by at least 20% annually over the next few years. That&#39;s an impressive growth rate for a stock that trades at less than three times this year&#39;s sales. MercadoLibre -- which is growing slightly faster than Sea -- trades at four times this year&#39;s sales.</p><h2>Which thesis makes more sense?</h2><p>I personally believe the bearish thesis still makes more sense. Shopee needs to prove that it can keep growing even as it reins in its discounts, while Garena desperately needs<i>Free Fire</i>to remain popular as the gaming sector cools off. If either of those wobbly strategies fails, it will face an even more painful landing. Therefore, investors should stick with better-run companies --like MercadoLibre or <b>Pinduoduo</b> -- if they&#39;re looking for an overseas e-commerce play in this tough market.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Stock: Bear vs. Bull</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Stock: Bear vs. Bull\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-22 08:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/21/sea-limited-stock-bear-vs-bull/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTSSea Limited’s stock has plunged over the past year.The bears believe its e-commerce and gaming businesses will face tough post-pandemic slowdowns as its losses widen.The bulls expect it to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/21/sea-limited-stock-bear-vs-bull/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/21/sea-limited-stock-bear-vs-bull/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177400795","content_text":"KEY POINTSSea Limited’s stock has plunged over the past year.The bears believe its e-commerce and gaming businesses will face tough post-pandemic slowdowns as its losses widen.The bulls expect it to overcome those near-term challenges with more disciplined spending and the expansion of its fintech ecosystem.Sea Limited's stock price has declined more than 80% since it closed at an all-time high of $366.99 last October. The market's enthusiasm for the Southeast Asian e-commerce and gaming giant fizzled out as its growth decelerated in a post-pandemic market and its losses widened.But even after that steep pullback, Sea's stock has still quadrupled since its IPO nearly five years ago. Let's review the bear and bull cases for Sea to see if it can stabilize and continue growing over the next few years.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Sea's delicate balancing actSea generated 59% of its revenue last quarter from its e-commerce division. This segment houses Shopee, the leading online marketplace in Southeast Asia and Taiwan. Shopee conquered both markets by undercutting its competitors with loss-leading promotions and subsidies.Another 31% of Sea's quarterly revenue came from its gaming unit Garena. Garena generates most of its revenue from a single hit game, Free Fire, which was launched in 2017. Free Fire initially generated a stream of higher-margin revenue for Garena that partly offset Shopee's losses.The remaining 10% of Sea's revenue came from its nascent fintech business, which includes its SeaMoney payments platform and other financial services. Like Shopee, this growing segment remains deeply unprofitable.Simply put, Sea has been balancing several unprofitable businesses on top of a single mobile game. Management likely believed it could maintain that balancing act for at least a few more years as economies of scale kicked in at Shopee and Garena diversified its portfolio with new games. It also expected that shaky scaffolding to support Shopee's expansion into other crowded e-commerce markets like India and Latin America.What the bears will tell you about that planThe bears believe that, like many e-commerce and gaming companies, Shopee and Garena will both face tough slowdowns in a post-lockdown world.Sea's e-commerce and other services (including fintech) revenue soared 157% to $4.6 billion in 2021, then grew another 84% year over year to $3.3 billion in the first half of 2022. But within that total, Shopee's adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) loss nearly doubled to $2.6 billion in 2021, then widened year over year from $993 million to $1.4 billion in the first half of 2022.As Shopee's growth cooled off and its losses widened, Free Fire lost its momentum. Garena's bookings rose 44% to $4.6 billion in 2021 but fell 34% year over year to $1.5 billion in the first half of 2022. That slowdown was exacerbated by an abrupt ban in India, one of its top markets, earlier this year. As that profit engine stalls out, Sea's losses will widen further.The bears will claim that Sea's business is collapsing like a house of cards. Analysts expect its revenue to rise just 25% to $12.4 billion this year as its adjusted EBITDA loss widens to $2 billion. That slowing growth and red ink will make Sea a tough stock to own as interest rates continue to rise.What the bulls will tell you about that planThe bulls will acknowledge that Sea faces a lot of near-term challenges, but they believe it can overcome those hurdles with three main strategies.First and foremost, Sea has been reining in Shopee's expenses by shutting down its operations in India, reducing its presence in Latin America -- which is still dominated by MercadoLibre -- and downsizing its core Southeast Asian business with layoffs in Singapore and Indonesia. Those efforts could gradually right-size its business, narrow its losses, and free up more resources for expanding SeaMoney across Southeast Asia.As for Free Fire, it's still the highest-grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia and Latin America. Garena believes it can extend the aging game's lifespan with fresh content, esports competitions, and an upgraded version called Free Fire MAX. All those strategies could stabilize its growth in a post-pandemic market and buy it more time to develop fresh games.Lastly, Sea can afford to operate at a loss for the foreseeable future. It raised more than $6 billion last year in a big stock and convertible bond sale, and it ended last quarter with $6.5 billion in cash and equivalents.Analysts still expect Sea's revenue to grow by at least 20% annually over the next few years. That's an impressive growth rate for a stock that trades at less than three times this year's sales. MercadoLibre -- which is growing slightly faster than Sea -- trades at four times this year's sales.Which thesis makes more sense?I personally believe the bearish thesis still makes more sense. Shopee needs to prove that it can keep growing even as it reins in its discounts, while Garena desperately needsFree Fireto remain popular as the gaming sector cools off. If either of those wobbly strategies fails, it will face an even more painful landing. Therefore, investors should stick with better-run companies --like MercadoLibre or Pinduoduo -- if they're looking for an overseas e-commerce play in this tough market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919327425,"gmtCreate":1663735684868,"gmtModify":1676537326377,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Call]&nbsp;","listText":"[Call]&nbsp;","text":"[Call]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919327425","repostId":"2268917780","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268917780","pubTimestamp":1663732800,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268917780?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-21 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Alibaba: The Charlie Munger And Li Lu Divergence","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268917780","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryGreat minds think alike. But what is even more interesting is when they do not.Two of the mos","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Great minds think alike. But what is even more interesting is when they do not.</li><li>Two of the most successful investors of our time, Charlie Munger and Li Lu, diverge starkly on Alibaba.</li><li>A comparison of their views and actions best illustrates the opportunities and risks associated with the investment.</li><li>Risks commonly mentioned (VIE, delisting, etc.) are all symptoms to me, while Li Lu’s Civilization 2.5 theory offers a more fundamental explanation of the underlying cause.</li><li>Both bears and bulls can benefit from them and make more informed decisions.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0942ec404ebc02752e62408a90fefc89\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>JuSun</span></p><h2>The investment thesis</h2><p>Charlie Munger needs no introduction, but some readers may need a bit more information on Li Lu. They have been close friends for almost 2 decades. Charlie Munger described Li Lu as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” And to Li Lu, Munger has been a &#34;mentor and good friend&#34; (in Li Lu&#39;s own words). The following brief bio taken from Wikipedia provides a bit more info on Li Lu (slightly edited by me):</p><blockquote>Li Lu (born April 6, 1966) is a Chinese-born American value investor, businessman, and philanthropist. In 1997, he founded Himalaya Capital Management, known for its disciplined and value-oriented approach to investing. Li met Charlie Munger on Thanksgiving 2003 and they have been friends since. With Munger&#39;s help, Li transformed his hedge fund into a long-only investment vehicle which is currently focused on global investment opportunities. Munger has stated that Li Lu is the only outside manager he’s ever invested with and he’s described him as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” Li Lu has been known as the man who introduced the Chinese battery and electric car maker BYD Company to Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett.</blockquote><p>It is interesting to observe that these two investors, who share both close friendship and also investing principles, diverge starkly on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF). Munger has a large position in BABA, but Li Lu does not. And this leads us to the main topic of today. You will see a comparison of their views and actions best illustrates the opportunities and risks associated with the BABA investment. On the one side, the current BABA situation presents an opportunity to buy a good business on the operation table, a hallmark investment strategy from Munger. On the other hand, this article will also dive into the view of Li Lu, especially his view on the civilization 2.5 status in China, as elaborated immediately below.</p><h2>Li Lu, BABA, and Civilization 2.5</h2><p>Li Lu’s current holdings in his Himalaya Capital Management are shown in the chart below. As mentioned above, Munger described him as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” But from his holdings, he is more Buffett than Buffett himself in terms of concentration. His portfolio consists of a total of 6 positions only and the largest position - Micron (MU) - represents almost 34% of the total portfolio size.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0cfbdc8a33a6b476b854ac581dd6f60\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"157\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: dataroma.com</span></p><p>You can also see that half of his picks overlap with Munger and Warren Buffett. All three of them like Bank of America (BAC), Apple (AAPL), and of course Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B).</p><p>However, BABA is where he and Munger diverge. As to be detailed in the next Section, Munger holds a sizeable BABA position, but Li Lu does not. So naturally, it triggers the question: Why? Seeking Alpha authors have detailed many risks such as VIE, delisting, et al. To me, these are symptoms. In my view, Li Lu’s following Civilization 2.5 theory offers a more fundamental explanation of the underlying cause. The theory was presented in a lecture he gave in 2015, and I think it is worth quoting in full (the emphases were added by me). And readers are highly encouraged to read the transcript in its entirety:</p><blockquote>I believe China is at interim stage between Civilization 2.0 and Civilization 3.0.<i>Let’s call it Civilization 2.5. China has come a long way but still has a long road ahead.</i>Therefore, <i>I think there is a high probability that China will continue on the main track of Civilization 3.0, as the cost of deviation is very high.</i>If you have a good understanding of China’s culture, people and history, you will agree that China will forge forward. This is particularly the case now that you have a better understanding of the essence of modern civilization. There is almost no chance of China leaving the common market, and the probability of China changing its market rules is also very small. Thus, it is highly probable that, in the next 2 to 3 decades, China will remain in the global market system, and adhere to free market principles, in addition to promoting science &amp; technology development.</blockquote><p>It will take time to go from Civilization 2.5 to 3.0. And surprises and setbacks like VIE and delisting are likely (plus a bunch more that we cannot even imagine today). So, given the timeframe and uncertainties, it is an understandable decision that some investors, Li Lu himself included, decided to stay on the sideline.</p><p>While Munger, apparently focused more on the opportunity side of the coin given that China will have no choice but to keep upgrading to 3.0 because “the cost of deviation is very high.” And we will elaborate on Munger&#39;s thinking and actions immediately below.</p><h2>Munger and BABA</h2><p>The following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancellation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3, and then again in 2021 Q4.</p><p>There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. In the near term, the market reacted too quickly to a series of short-term events based on perception (based on the information available at that time). And there is no lack of major events in the past 1 or 2 years as summarized in the chart (including a war, specifically the Russian/Ukraine war). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth.</p><p>In the longer term, as just mentioned, not only China will continue to upgrade to Civilization 3.0, but also other countries in the Asian Pacific region. And such an upgrade will present spectacular growth opportunities, and BABA is well-positioned to benefit from such an upgrade, as to be discussed next.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f64d51b9956d82d5a712c375aa004d1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Source: Author based on Yahoo data</span></p><h2>The upgrade to civilization 3.0 and BABA</h2><p>It is an unstopped trend that our world is moving toward e-commerce, and the epicenter of the remaining movement will be China and the Asian-Pacific region. Even though many of us are already impressed by the success of e-commerce giants like BABA and Amazon (AMZN), the movement toward e-commerce has just actually gotten started and the bulk of the growth is yet to come. The global e-commerce market size was valued at USD 9.09 trillion in 2019 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (&#34;CAGR&#34;) of 14.7% from 2020 to 2027. The secular support is even stronger for BABA as the Asia Pacific region is already dominating the market for e-commerce with a share of 55.3% in 2019. Furthermore, this region is expected to witness the fastest growth from 2020 to 2027 as seen below. Even by as early as 2023 – in about 2 years that is - retail e-commerce sales in Asia-Pacific are projected to be greater than the rest of the world combined.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e1c49046f66ec88ec7e79914feb0658\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>And BABA stands best poised to benefit from this upgrade, especially from the Asian-Pacific momentum. As argued in my earlier article:</p><blockquote><i>Capitalizing on the continued e-commerce growth requires a combination of scale and reach, government support, and technology. And also, finally, geographical proximity and cultural compatibility certainly help. And BABA has all these stars aligned for its further expansion – especially in the Asian-Pacific region. The China government might be tightening its regulations on its domestic market, but it certainly encourages the overseas expansion of its tech giants like BABA. And BABA has already accomplished a substantial lead in capturing overseas markets, with its close neighbors such as Indonesia and Vietnam posting revenue growth of over 100% YoY recently.</i></blockquote><p>Risks and final thoughts</p><p>To recap, the current BABA situation is a textbook example of high-risk and high-return investment opportunities. There are plenty of risks in the near term and also in the long term. There has been no lack of major events in the past 1- or 2-years surrounding BABA (Ant IPO, fine, VEI, delisting, et al). In the near term, the China-U.S. trade tension and global geopolitical frictions will keep the stock prices in a highly volatile state. And I am sure there be more hiccups and surprises that investors have not thought about yet showing up in the near future.</p><p>In the long term, China is going through an upgrade from civilization 2.5 to 3.0. I agree with Li Lu’s view that China will have no choice but to keep upgrading to 3.0 because “the cost of deviation is very high.” But at the same time, the path of the upgrade will be long and full of setbacks. Independent thinkers like Munger and Li, despite their opposite actions, are essentially betting on the two sides of the same coin.</p><p>I am siding with Munger there and betting on the opportunity side. All the risks and opportunities mentioned above should apply equally to major China tech firms. However, I think the market now overly exaggerates the risk side for BABA and underestimates the opportunity side, creating an asymmetric opportunity. As you can see from the following chart, both the valuation of BABA and JD.com (JD) has been compressed substantially in the past two years. You can see that by the downward trend of the three-year medium of their price to CFO multiple. Despite the common risks/opportunities and also comparable (or even superior profitability as argued in our recent article), BABA was so much more compressed than JD. Its current P/CFO stands at only 10.55x, about 25% below JD’s 13,.98x, and a whopping 43% below its 3-year median of 18.44x.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c588d4b31a546d6b45775d98e8bd545b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>This article was written by</span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: The Charlie Munger And Li Lu Divergence</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: The Charlie Munger And Li Lu Divergence\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-21 12:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541883-alibaba-the-charlie-munger-and-li-lu-divergence><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryGreat minds think alike. But what is even more interesting is when they do not.Two of the most successful investors of our time, Charlie Munger and Li Lu, diverge starkly on Alibaba.A ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541883-alibaba-the-charlie-munger-and-li-lu-divergence\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541883-alibaba-the-charlie-munger-and-li-lu-divergence","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268917780","content_text":"SummaryGreat minds think alike. But what is even more interesting is when they do not.Two of the most successful investors of our time, Charlie Munger and Li Lu, diverge starkly on Alibaba.A comparison of their views and actions best illustrates the opportunities and risks associated with the investment.Risks commonly mentioned (VIE, delisting, etc.) are all symptoms to me, while Li Lu’s Civilization 2.5 theory offers a more fundamental explanation of the underlying cause.Both bears and bulls can benefit from them and make more informed decisions.JuSunThe investment thesisCharlie Munger needs no introduction, but some readers may need a bit more information on Li Lu. They have been close friends for almost 2 decades. Charlie Munger described Li Lu as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” And to Li Lu, Munger has been a \"mentor and good friend\" (in Li Lu's own words). The following brief bio taken from Wikipedia provides a bit more info on Li Lu (slightly edited by me):Li Lu (born April 6, 1966) is a Chinese-born American value investor, businessman, and philanthropist. In 1997, he founded Himalaya Capital Management, known for its disciplined and value-oriented approach to investing. Li met Charlie Munger on Thanksgiving 2003 and they have been friends since. With Munger's help, Li transformed his hedge fund into a long-only investment vehicle which is currently focused on global investment opportunities. Munger has stated that Li Lu is the only outside manager he’s ever invested with and he’s described him as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” Li Lu has been known as the man who introduced the Chinese battery and electric car maker BYD Company to Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett.It is interesting to observe that these two investors, who share both close friendship and also investing principles, diverge starkly on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA,OTCPK:BABAF). Munger has a large position in BABA, but Li Lu does not. And this leads us to the main topic of today. You will see a comparison of their views and actions best illustrates the opportunities and risks associated with the BABA investment. On the one side, the current BABA situation presents an opportunity to buy a good business on the operation table, a hallmark investment strategy from Munger. On the other hand, this article will also dive into the view of Li Lu, especially his view on the civilization 2.5 status in China, as elaborated immediately below.Li Lu, BABA, and Civilization 2.5Li Lu’s current holdings in his Himalaya Capital Management are shown in the chart below. As mentioned above, Munger described him as the “Chinese Warren Buffett.” But from his holdings, he is more Buffett than Buffett himself in terms of concentration. His portfolio consists of a total of 6 positions only and the largest position - Micron (MU) - represents almost 34% of the total portfolio size.Source: dataroma.comYou can also see that half of his picks overlap with Munger and Warren Buffett. All three of them like Bank of America (BAC), Apple (AAPL), and of course Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A,BRK.B).However, BABA is where he and Munger diverge. As to be detailed in the next Section, Munger holds a sizeable BABA position, but Li Lu does not. So naturally, it triggers the question: Why? Seeking Alpha authors have detailed many risks such as VIE, delisting, et al. To me, these are symptoms. In my view, Li Lu’s following Civilization 2.5 theory offers a more fundamental explanation of the underlying cause. The theory was presented in a lecture he gave in 2015, and I think it is worth quoting in full (the emphases were added by me). And readers are highly encouraged to read the transcript in its entirety:I believe China is at interim stage between Civilization 2.0 and Civilization 3.0.Let’s call it Civilization 2.5. China has come a long way but still has a long road ahead.Therefore, I think there is a high probability that China will continue on the main track of Civilization 3.0, as the cost of deviation is very high.If you have a good understanding of China’s culture, people and history, you will agree that China will forge forward. This is particularly the case now that you have a better understanding of the essence of modern civilization. There is almost no chance of China leaving the common market, and the probability of China changing its market rules is also very small. Thus, it is highly probable that, in the next 2 to 3 decades, China will remain in the global market system, and adhere to free market principles, in addition to promoting science & technology development.It will take time to go from Civilization 2.5 to 3.0. And surprises and setbacks like VIE and delisting are likely (plus a bunch more that we cannot even imagine today). So, given the timeframe and uncertainties, it is an understandable decision that some investors, Li Lu himself included, decided to stay on the sideline.While Munger, apparently focused more on the opportunity side of the coin given that China will have no choice but to keep upgrading to 3.0 because “the cost of deviation is very high.” And we will elaborate on Munger's thinking and actions immediately below.Munger and BABAThe following chart summarizes the key events that led to Munger’s actions. As you can see from the chart below, he started buying BABA shares in 2021 Q1, after a large correction in its share price caused by the cancellation of the highly anticipated Ant Group IPO. He then doubled down his stake in Alibaba twice: first in 2021 Q3, and then again in 2021 Q4.There are certainly good reasons for Munger’s decision. In the near term, the market reacted too quickly to a series of short-term events based on perception (based on the information available at that time). And there is no lack of major events in the past 1 or 2 years as summarized in the chart (including a war, specifically the Russian/Ukraine war). As a result, even though BABA’s core business is intact, its valuation became too compressed when Munger pulled the trigger to double down his bets. It is a textbook reflection of his wisdom of buying a good business on the operating table. At the prices he bought into BABA, it was valued as a terminally cheap and stagnating business, while its core fundamentals not only remain intact but also well-positioned for growth.In the longer term, as just mentioned, not only China will continue to upgrade to Civilization 3.0, but also other countries in the Asian Pacific region. And such an upgrade will present spectacular growth opportunities, and BABA is well-positioned to benefit from such an upgrade, as to be discussed next.Source: Author based on Yahoo dataThe upgrade to civilization 3.0 and BABAIt is an unstopped trend that our world is moving toward e-commerce, and the epicenter of the remaining movement will be China and the Asian-Pacific region. Even though many of us are already impressed by the success of e-commerce giants like BABA and Amazon (AMZN), the movement toward e-commerce has just actually gotten started and the bulk of the growth is yet to come. The global e-commerce market size was valued at USD 9.09 trillion in 2019 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (\"CAGR\") of 14.7% from 2020 to 2027. The secular support is even stronger for BABA as the Asia Pacific region is already dominating the market for e-commerce with a share of 55.3% in 2019. Furthermore, this region is expected to witness the fastest growth from 2020 to 2027 as seen below. Even by as early as 2023 – in about 2 years that is - retail e-commerce sales in Asia-Pacific are projected to be greater than the rest of the world combined.And BABA stands best poised to benefit from this upgrade, especially from the Asian-Pacific momentum. As argued in my earlier article:Capitalizing on the continued e-commerce growth requires a combination of scale and reach, government support, and technology. And also, finally, geographical proximity and cultural compatibility certainly help. And BABA has all these stars aligned for its further expansion – especially in the Asian-Pacific region. The China government might be tightening its regulations on its domestic market, but it certainly encourages the overseas expansion of its tech giants like BABA. And BABA has already accomplished a substantial lead in capturing overseas markets, with its close neighbors such as Indonesia and Vietnam posting revenue growth of over 100% YoY recently.Risks and final thoughtsTo recap, the current BABA situation is a textbook example of high-risk and high-return investment opportunities. There are plenty of risks in the near term and also in the long term. There has been no lack of major events in the past 1- or 2-years surrounding BABA (Ant IPO, fine, VEI, delisting, et al). In the near term, the China-U.S. trade tension and global geopolitical frictions will keep the stock prices in a highly volatile state. And I am sure there be more hiccups and surprises that investors have not thought about yet showing up in the near future.In the long term, China is going through an upgrade from civilization 2.5 to 3.0. I agree with Li Lu’s view that China will have no choice but to keep upgrading to 3.0 because “the cost of deviation is very high.” But at the same time, the path of the upgrade will be long and full of setbacks. Independent thinkers like Munger and Li, despite their opposite actions, are essentially betting on the two sides of the same coin.I am siding with Munger there and betting on the opportunity side. All the risks and opportunities mentioned above should apply equally to major China tech firms. However, I think the market now overly exaggerates the risk side for BABA and underestimates the opportunity side, creating an asymmetric opportunity. As you can see from the following chart, both the valuation of BABA and JD.com (JD) has been compressed substantially in the past two years. You can see that by the downward trend of the three-year medium of their price to CFO multiple. Despite the common risks/opportunities and also comparable (or even superior profitability as argued in our recent article), BABA was so much more compressed than JD. Its current P/CFO stands at only 10.55x, about 25% below JD’s 13,.98x, and a whopping 43% below its 3-year median of 18.44x.This article was written by","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":29,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086511282,"gmtCreate":1650469305416,"gmtModify":1676534731470,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"too influential","listText":"too influential","text":"too influential","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086511282","repostId":"1105569285","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105569285","pubTimestamp":1650468622,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105569285?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105569285","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</li><li>While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</li><li>The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.</li></ul><p>For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.</p><p><b>End of the Road for Musk</b></p><p>Most investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.</p><p>The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.</p><p>Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.</p><p>We think that moment has come.</p><p><b>Musk Meets His Maker: Twitter</b></p><p>In our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.</p><p>The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.</p><p>As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.</p><p><b>Live by the Stunt, Die by the Stunt</b></p><p>Ultimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.</p><p>Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.</p><p>Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.</p><p><b>Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?</b></p><p>Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:</p><ul><li>stock and cryptocurrency manipulation</li><li>false advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)</li><li>ignoring safety authorities</li><li>neglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s shares</li><li>and other claims of dubious veracity</li></ul><p><b>What Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?</b></p><p>Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.</p><p><b>Trouble on the Horizon</b></p><p>All the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.</p><p><b>Incumbents Are Catching Up:</b> Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.</p><p>The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.</p><p>Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start <i>selling</i> <i>cars</i>to make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.</p><p><b>Market Share Losses Continue:</b> Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.</p><p>Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.</p><p><b>Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV Sales</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc4dd16dde86e1ab31f85bd8a2af4aee\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"260\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and Statista</p><p><b>Slow Start to 2022:</b>Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.</p><p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p><p>Despite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.</p><p>Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.</p><p>To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.</p><p>Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p><ul><li>15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)</li><li>7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])</li><li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)</li></ul><p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):</p><ul><li>57% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>64% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>83% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p>If we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p><ul><li>31% for 15 million vehicles</li><li>35% for 17 million vehicles</li><li>45% for 21 million vehicles</li></ul><p><b>Figure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/Share</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bad84793f241565c81ebb0d29b01242c\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><b>Tesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make Money</b></p><p>Below are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.</p><p>Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:</p><ul><li>immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) and</li><li>grow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</li></ul><p>In this scenario, Tesla generates <i>$811 billion</i> in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.</p><p>This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p><p>If we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 14% and</li><li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.</p><p><b>TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p><p>If we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:</p><ul><li>NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) and</li><li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 and</li><li>revenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, then</li></ul><p>the stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.</p><p>In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.</p><p>We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.</p><p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p><p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e43f865637ac4c84e8199df2b05d061\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>TSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.</p><p>An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.</p><p>In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p><p><b>Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to Fall</b></p><p>Other meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.</p><p>AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.</p><p>Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.</p><p><b>Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value &amp; FCF: TTM</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add55782c8e6b0e8a891f84c9ec7421f\" tg-width=\"630\" tg-height=\"119\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Meme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)</p><p>Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings</p><p><i>This article originally published on April 14, 2022.</i></p><p><i>Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.</i></p><p>[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries</p><p>[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is The End Near For Musk And Tesla?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs The End Near For Musk And Tesla?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-20 23:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4501979-is-the-end-near-for-musk-and-tesla","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105569285","content_text":"SummaryDespite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable, a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.The hype around Musk’s stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead of Tesla.For years, Elon Musk has used hype to prop up Tesla’s stock. It’s worked so well that other companies have followed his lead. But now, we think the world has seen that the emperor has no clothes. The attempted Twitter (TWTR) takeover is yet another example of Musk bullying his way into what he wants and underscores how his super-star status cannot always convince people to overlook his irreverent, reckless, and potentially illegal behavior. As the recent lawsuit againstMusk shows, he is not completely immune from the consequences of his actions. Despite recent gains, investors should consider selling Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other meme stocks now, before institutional money bails.End of the Road for MuskMost investors are keenly aware of Musk’s long history of making grand promises that don’t come true – the Roadster, the Semi, the Cybertruck, full-self driving (FSD) etc. – and at times are blatantly unethical, such as tweeting “funding secured” to go private, and pumping Doge coin. But now, we have evidence that he may have acted illegally in the way he reported his purchases of Twitter stock. Given the clear rules about how investors should report large stakes in public companies – like what Musk has in Twitter – this case seems straightforward: Musk broke the rules.The next question is how severely he will be punished. If the past is any guide, regulators will not muster more than a slap on the wrist. The real question is how institutional investors will react to signs Musk has pushed the envelope too far.Institutional investors own Tesla stock more often because they must, given its influence on their performance, than because they see it as a good investment. Any investor with a rigorous process can see the stock is ridiculously overvalued; so, you own it for the “Musk effect”. Accordingly, the institutional investors’ decision to sell Tesla stock will be based on when Musk’s outsized influence begins to wane.We think that moment has come.Musk Meets His Maker: TwitterIn our view, Musk’s repeated rule-breaking behavior has finally gone too far. Details of the case are still emerging, but Musk’s failure to disclose his more than 5% stake in Twitter arguably hurt investors who sold shares after he crossed that ownership threshold. Instead, Musk kept purchasing shares until reaching a 9% stake in Twitter before disclosing his position. The initial class-action lawsuit and the potential for more have finally gotten the attention of investors, if not regulators.The poor reception Twitter’s employees gave the news of Musk’s stake is a very public rejection of his super-star influencer status and provide the first tangible evidence that maybe his star power has limitations. If a hostile takeover prompts a mass exodus of talent, then Musk might end up destroying the company in the process of buying it. That being said, the loudest voices in the company are not necessarily the most valuable.As more people join lawsuits against Musk, and Twitter employees continue to express their mistrust of the company’s largest shareholder, institutional investors may seize this moment to quietly unload their shares of overvalued Tesla stock. Now is the time to sell because the price of the stock to this point has been more a reflection of Musk’s ability to draw an audience than any underlying fundamental value in the company.Live by the Stunt, Die by the StuntUltimately, it appears that as much as Twitter was the launch pad for Musk’s super influence powers, his failure thus far to win the publicity battle could mark the beginning-of-the-end of his super-star status.Musk’s Twitter play, which is another in a long series of distractions, could end poorly for Musk. Instead of addressing Tesla’s issues, Musk appears to be attempting to position himself as a defender of free speech. The risk he faces is that instead of looking like a hero he looks more like a bully running an ego-driven takeover with little regard for the rules. While regulators may still be too frightened to hold Musk accountable (more on this below), a change in public opinion would be far more consequential to Musk and his empire.Tesla’s investors have not been impressed with Musk’s Twitter antics either, as the stock is down 11% since he announced his ownership in the social media giant. Likewise, the “Musk bump” in Twitter shares is likely to fade as investors realize the only value Musk brought was publicity, and not good publicity either. Although Twitter remains a popular platform, it has its own problems and suggestions such as removing a letter from its name can do more harm than good.Why Haven’t Regulators Done Anything Before Now?Tesla’s high stock price has, thus far, kept its CEO well beyond an arm’s length of regulators. Other executives in other times likely would have faced consequences for many of the things Musk has said and done. Today, Tesla’s high stock price indicates investors’ collective belief in Musk’s promises and protects Musk. Regulators don’t want to be accused of causing the company’s stock price to fall, thereby destroying the wealth of many investors and, as a result, footing the cost of defending against numerous shareholder lawsuits.Furthermore, Musk can claim Tesla’s elevated stock price and the wealth it endows is what he needs to fulfill his outlandish promises over time. However, should Tesla’s stock price ever reflect realistic expectations for the company, authorities may feel emboldened to pursue legal or regulatory action against Musk and/or Tesla. Credible claims can be made for several offenses, including:stock and cryptocurrency manipulationfalse advertising of Full Self Driving (FSD)ignoring safety authoritiesneglecting to file documentation on time related to his purchase of Twitter’s sharesand other claims of dubious veracityWhat Will Regulators Do When the Bubble Pops?Musk has positioned himself as a pop-culture icon. Though society loves to build up celebrities, so too does it love tearing them down even more. Once Tesla’s stock price falls from its overly inflated levels, Musk will lose his cover that has protected him from all his unethical and arguably illegal behavior. Regulators are likely to come after Musk with knives out after all the humiliation they had to suffer at his hand.Trouble on the HorizonAll the hype around Musk’s large stake in Twitter and the speculation around his plans for the social media platform takes focus away from the troubles, which are many, ahead for Tesla. Of course, that is likely his goal. Below we discuss the fundamentals of Tesla’s business, which cannot be wished away or made irrelevant with hype.Incumbents Are Catching Up: Tesla’s first-mover advantage has long been cited as reason enough for investors to pile their money into the company. However, that advantage is gone, and in some cases turning into a lag. Ford (F), Rivian (RIVN), and General Motors (GM) aim to produce EV trucks in 2022, but Tesla will be on the sidelines until at least 2023 before launching its Cybertruck.The rising competition from incumbents means the days of Tesla’s rising profitability could be numbered. For starters, 26% of the company’s GAAP earnings in 2021 were from the sale of regulatory credits, not from the underlying economics of making and selling vehicles and other ancillary services.Once incumbents increase production of EVs they will need to purchase fewer credits from Elon. That means Tesla needs to actually start selling carsto make money. The catch-22 is that for the company to sell more cars, it first needs to increase its production capacity. If Tesla’s succeeds in selling more cars capital expenditure and working capital are primed to grow along with sales. Tesla needs to build economies of scale before it can benefit from them.Market Share Losses Continue: Incumbent automakers have entered the EV market with scale and are already taking market share from Tesla. Per Figure 2, Tesla’s share of global EV sales fell from 16% in 2019 to 14% in 2021.Tesla’s share of the U.S. EV market fell from 79% in2020to 70% in2021. With light truck sales comprising more than three out of every four vehicles sold in the U.S. in January 2022, Tesla falling behind in truck EVs means its share of the U.S. market could fall further.Figure 2: Tesla’s Share of the Global EV SalesTSLA Market Share Since 2019(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC, EV-volumes.com and StatistaSlow Start to 2022:Though Teslaforecastedan at least 50% YoY rise in deliveries in 2022, the company is feeling the effects of supply chain problems – just like every other automaker. The company delivered 310,000 vehicles in the quarter, while consensus estimates were for 313,000.Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own at Least 57% of the Global Passenger EV MarketDespite the increased competition, failure to meet delivery expectations, and diminutive share of the global EV market in 2021, Tesla’s valuation implies the company will own 57% of the global passenger EV market in 2030.Even if Tesla increases the average selling price (ASP) per vehicle to $55K vs. ($49K in 2021), Tesla’s stock price at ~$1,100/share implies the firm will sell 15 million vehicles in 2030 versus ~936k in 2021. That figure represents 57% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030 and the implied vehicle sales based on a lower ASP looks even more unrealistic.To provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price, we assume Tesla achieves profit margins 1.5x Toyota Motor Corp (TM) and triples its current auto manufacturing efficiency.Per Figure 3, an $1,100/share price implies that, in 2030, Tesla will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:15 million vehicles – ASP of $55K (above average U.S. new car price of $47K in 2021)7 million vehicles – ASP of $49K (equal to Tesla’s 2021 ASP[1])21 million vehicles – ASP of $38K (equal to General Motors’ ASP[2] of $38K in 2021)If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 26 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):57% for 15 million vehicles64% for 17 million vehicles83% for 21 million vehiclesIf we assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 47 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:31% for 15 million vehicles35% for 17 million vehicles45% for 21 million vehiclesFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify $1,100/ShareTSLA DCF Implied Vehicle Production(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsTesla Must Generate More Profits Than Apple For Investors to Make MoneyBelow are the assumptions we use in our reverse discounted cash flow model to calculate the implied production levels above.Bulls should understand what Tesla needs to accomplish to justify ~$1,100/share:immediately achieve a 14% NOPAT margin (1.5x Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers we cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 8%) andgrow revenue by 32% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.In this scenario, Tesla generates $811 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 116% of the combined revenues of Toyota, Stellantis (STLA), Ford, General Motors, and Honda (HMC) over the past twelve months. Tesla must replace the U.S. auto industry before 2030 to justify current valuations.This scenario also implies Tesla grows net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 2,458% from 2021 to 2030. In this scenario, Tesla generates $112 billion in NOPAT in 2030, or 12% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $100 billion, is the highest of all companies we cover, and 65% higher than Microsoft (MSFT), the second-highest. Those companies have intertwined themselves in the lives of consumers and businesses around the world, which seems an unlikely feat for Tesla at this point.TSLA Has 46% Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About SalesIf we assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $55k, the stock is worth just $542/share. Details:NOPAT margin improves to 14% andrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, thenthe stock is worth just $547/share today – a 46% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $62 billion, or nearly 14x its 2021 NOPAT, and just 7% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) 2021 NOPAT.TSLA Has 80%+ Downside Even with 27% Market Share and Realistic MarginsIf we estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $200/share. Here’s the math:NOPAT margin improves to 9% (equal to Toyota’s TTM margin) andrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2022 to 2024 andrevenue grows 17% a year from 2025 to 2030, thenthe stock is worth just $200/share today – an 80% downside to the current price.In this scenario, Tesla sells 7 million cars (27% of the global passenger EV market in 2030) at an ASP of $47K (average new car price in U.S. in 2021) and grows NOPAT by 24% compounded annually from 2022 to 2030.We also assume a more realistic NOPAT margin of 9% in this scenario, which is 1.3x higher than Toyota’s industry-leading five-year average NOPAT margin of 7%. Given the required capital requirements to fund manufacturing and match increased competition in the EV market, Tesla is unlikely to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 9% from 2022 to 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $200/share.Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied in the above scenarios to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, we show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation ScenariosTSLA DCF Implied NOPAT(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 49% compounded annually from 2011 to 2021 and 30% compounded annually since 2015.An invested capital CAGR of 14% represents 1/3rdthe CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2011 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 3x more efficiently than it has so far.In other words, we aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.Tesla Won’t Be the Only One to FallOther meme stocks have taken pages from the Musk playbook and will likely suffer the same fate we expect Tesla to suffer once the game is up. GameStop (GME) promised to transform itself into an ecommerce powerhouse, yet the company continues to head in the opposite direction and earnings continue to disappoint. GameStop’s Core Earnings fell from -$200 million in fiscal 2021 to -$321 million in fiscal 2022.Despite the company’s inability to quickly execute operational change, GameStop’s stock has remained well above a reasonable valuation thanks in part to announcing the launch of a marketplace for nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and partnerships with blockchain firms.AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has also run several Tesla-esque plays to prop up its stock. Indeed, the company’s CEO recently tweeted that the company is “playing on offense again” with its investment in a microcap gold mine. Before gold mines, the company got on the crypto bandwagon in 2021 by accepting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, and Litecoin.Beyond the repeated attempts at propping up their stocks, the fundamentally weak business models of Tesla, GameStop, and AMC Entertainment in highly competitive industries burn cash and continue to dilute shareholders whenever possible. Per Figure 5, despite combining for more than $1.1 trillion of market cap, Tesla, AMC Entertainment, and GameStop have a combined economic book value, our measure of the no growth value of a stock, of -$52 billion and -$4.3 billion of free cash flow over the past twelve months.Figure 5: Meme Stock’s Market Cap, Economic Book Value & FCF: TTMMeme Stocks Market Cap, Economic Book Value, FCF(New Constructs, LLC)Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filingsThis article originally published on April 14, 2022.Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.[1] Tesla’s ASP = (total automotive revenues – regulatory credits) / deliveries[2] General Motors’ ASP = Vehicle, parts and accessories / wholesale vehicle sales","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966152771,"gmtCreate":1669451760393,"gmtModify":1676538198701,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fool me once","listText":"fool me once","text":"fool me once","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966152771","repostId":"2286839697","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2286839697","pubTimestamp":1669424518,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2286839697?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-26 09:01","market":"other","language":"en","title":"3 Cryptos to Buy in a Bear Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286839697","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The crypto winter just got a whole lot colder, but these top cryptos could be heating up.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The implosion of FTX, a previously trusted exchange that had a high profile with even casual investors, thanks to its extensive marketing, gave a black eye to a space that has already taken its lumps this year.</p><p>However, while many investors have sold their cryptocurrencies during the current crypto winter, for every seller there is a buyer, and some of them are long-term investors who have conviction in the crypto&#39;s potential. Chaos can provide good buying opportunities. Here are three cryptos for risk-tolerant investors to consider buying during the current bear market.</p><h2><b>1. Ethereum</b></h2><p><b>Ethereum</b> has rallied 26% since its June low, but has sold off following the FTX bankruptcy filing. However, this could be a case of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater as Ethereum is a decentralized, established cryptocurrency that has little to do with FTX. No single entity controls Ethereum, and over 70 million users worldwide help to validate transactions and secure the Ethereum network, putting it in stark contrast with cryptocurrencies like <b>FTX Token</b> and many of the other newer cryptocurrencies issued by exchanges and other centralized entities.</p><p>This year, Ethereum users welcomed its long-awaited transition to proof-of-stake consensus, known as The Merge, which drastically reduced Ethereum&#39;s carbon footprint, paved the way for sharding (which will eventually lead to faster transactions and lower fees when implemented in the next upgrade), and opened up the ability for more Ethereum users to earn rewards for participating in the network by staking their holdings to validate transactions and secure the network.</p><p>The ability to easily earn staking rewards also increases Ethereum&#39;s appeal as an investment. A user needs to stake a minimum of 32 Ether to run their own validator, but there are plenty of services that stake your Ethereum for you, allowing you to earn returns competitive with the payouts you can earn from popular dividend stocks as well as 10-year Treasury notes.</p><p>The $180 billion cryptocurrency is by far the largest smart-contract platform, making it the de facto gateway for larger institutional investors that want to get involved in the world of decentralized finance (DeFi). <b>JPMorgan Chase</b> recently tested the waters of decentralized finance with its first ever DeFi trade. The trade was executed on the <b>Polygon</b> blockchain, which is a Layer 2 network on Ethereum. Major decentralized exchanges like <b>Uniswap</b>, <b>dYdX</b>, and others are built on Ethereum. As additional traditional financial heavyweights get involved in decentralized finance, Ethereum will be their first stop.</p><p>With new capabilities after The Merge such as the ability to earn rewards for staking, and its position at the gateway to the world of DeFi, Ethereum looks like a top cryptocurrency to buy during the bear market.</p><h2><b>2. Bitcoin </b></h2><p>Like Ethereum, <b>Bitcoin</b> is a decentralized cryptocurrency that stands out in the crowd. The original crypto is also the original decentralized asset. There is no leader or central authority that controls the Bitcoin network -- meaning there&#39;s no one entity that can make a poor decision or act in a manner that destroys the value of Bitcoin. A network of miners all over the world secure the Bitcoin network by solving complex mathematical equations to validate transactions and earn more Bitcoin. Bitcoin is also transparent in that all transactions appear on its blockchain, which is publicly viewable.</p><p>Bitcoin is the oldest and largest cryptocurrency, and will benefit as the gateway to cryptocurrency as more institutional investors and corporations test the waters of cryptocurrency. While the FTX saga has certainly set crypto adoption back a few steps, overall, the tide is turning toward Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a whole.</p><p>On Oct. 11, <b>Bank of New York Mellon</b>, the world&#39;s largest custodial bank, announced that it would offer custody for cryptocurrencies. <b>Alphabet </b>recently announced it would utilize <b>Coinbase</b> to accept payments using Bitcoin for its Google Cloud services, and <b>Mastercard</b> announced it would offer its services to enable traditional banks to offer cryptocurrency trading.</p><p>As the world moves further toward crypto adoption, Bitcoin is best suited to lead cryptocurrency forward.</p><h2><b>3. Litecoin</b></h2><p><b>Litecoin</b> is one major crypto that has been able to avoid being pulled down in the current sell-off, and the proof-of-work crypto is surprisingly up 16% over the past month. The $4 billion crypto, which started as a fork of Bitcoin in 2011, is experiencing a bit of a resurgence, with a rally of 53% since the low it hit in June.</p><p>Litecoin is surging as the network&#39;s hash rate hits new all-time highs, indicating increasing interest in Litecoin and more competition to earn Litecoin by mining. Litecoin also benefited from news that it will join Bitcoin and Ethereum as digital assets that will be available on <b>Moneygram International</b>&#39;s payment platform. Like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Litecoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that Google Cloud will accept for payment, giving the 16th-largest crypto by market cap enhanced credibility. Perhaps a renewed interest in decentralized, proof-of-work assets plus growing adoption will continue to propel Litecoin higher.</p><p>The current crypto winter has been difficult for investors, but this bear market is also an opportune time for long-term, risk-tolerant investors to accumulate more tokens at lower prices before market sentiment again turns positive.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Cryptos to Buy in a Bear Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Cryptos to Buy in a Bear Market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-26 09:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/25/3-cryptos-to-buy-in-a-bear-market/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The implosion of FTX, a previously trusted exchange that had a high profile with even casual investors, thanks to its extensive marketing, gave a black eye to a space that has already taken its lumps ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/25/3-cryptos-to-buy-in-a-bear-market/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/25/3-cryptos-to-buy-in-a-bear-market/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286839697","content_text":"The implosion of FTX, a previously trusted exchange that had a high profile with even casual investors, thanks to its extensive marketing, gave a black eye to a space that has already taken its lumps this year.However, while many investors have sold their cryptocurrencies during the current crypto winter, for every seller there is a buyer, and some of them are long-term investors who have conviction in the crypto's potential. Chaos can provide good buying opportunities. Here are three cryptos for risk-tolerant investors to consider buying during the current bear market.1. EthereumEthereum has rallied 26% since its June low, but has sold off following the FTX bankruptcy filing. However, this could be a case of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater as Ethereum is a decentralized, established cryptocurrency that has little to do with FTX. No single entity controls Ethereum, and over 70 million users worldwide help to validate transactions and secure the Ethereum network, putting it in stark contrast with cryptocurrencies like FTX Token and many of the other newer cryptocurrencies issued by exchanges and other centralized entities.This year, Ethereum users welcomed its long-awaited transition to proof-of-stake consensus, known as The Merge, which drastically reduced Ethereum's carbon footprint, paved the way for sharding (which will eventually lead to faster transactions and lower fees when implemented in the next upgrade), and opened up the ability for more Ethereum users to earn rewards for participating in the network by staking their holdings to validate transactions and secure the network.The ability to easily earn staking rewards also increases Ethereum's appeal as an investment. A user needs to stake a minimum of 32 Ether to run their own validator, but there are plenty of services that stake your Ethereum for you, allowing you to earn returns competitive with the payouts you can earn from popular dividend stocks as well as 10-year Treasury notes.The $180 billion cryptocurrency is by far the largest smart-contract platform, making it the de facto gateway for larger institutional investors that want to get involved in the world of decentralized finance (DeFi). JPMorgan Chase recently tested the waters of decentralized finance with its first ever DeFi trade. The trade was executed on the Polygon blockchain, which is a Layer 2 network on Ethereum. Major decentralized exchanges like Uniswap, dYdX, and others are built on Ethereum. As additional traditional financial heavyweights get involved in decentralized finance, Ethereum will be their first stop.With new capabilities after The Merge such as the ability to earn rewards for staking, and its position at the gateway to the world of DeFi, Ethereum looks like a top cryptocurrency to buy during the bear market.2. Bitcoin Like Ethereum, Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency that stands out in the crowd. The original crypto is also the original decentralized asset. There is no leader or central authority that controls the Bitcoin network -- meaning there's no one entity that can make a poor decision or act in a manner that destroys the value of Bitcoin. A network of miners all over the world secure the Bitcoin network by solving complex mathematical equations to validate transactions and earn more Bitcoin. Bitcoin is also transparent in that all transactions appear on its blockchain, which is publicly viewable.Bitcoin is the oldest and largest cryptocurrency, and will benefit as the gateway to cryptocurrency as more institutional investors and corporations test the waters of cryptocurrency. While the FTX saga has certainly set crypto adoption back a few steps, overall, the tide is turning toward Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a whole.On Oct. 11, Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodial bank, announced that it would offer custody for cryptocurrencies. Alphabet recently announced it would utilize Coinbase to accept payments using Bitcoin for its Google Cloud services, and Mastercard announced it would offer its services to enable traditional banks to offer cryptocurrency trading.As the world moves further toward crypto adoption, Bitcoin is best suited to lead cryptocurrency forward.3. LitecoinLitecoin is one major crypto that has been able to avoid being pulled down in the current sell-off, and the proof-of-work crypto is surprisingly up 16% over the past month. The $4 billion crypto, which started as a fork of Bitcoin in 2011, is experiencing a bit of a resurgence, with a rally of 53% since the low it hit in June.Litecoin is surging as the network's hash rate hits new all-time highs, indicating increasing interest in Litecoin and more competition to earn Litecoin by mining. Litecoin also benefited from news that it will join Bitcoin and Ethereum as digital assets that will be available on Moneygram International's payment platform. Like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Litecoin is one of the cryptocurrencies that Google Cloud will accept for payment, giving the 16th-largest crypto by market cap enhanced credibility. Perhaps a renewed interest in decentralized, proof-of-work assets plus growing adoption will continue to propel Litecoin higher.The current crypto winter has been difficult for investors, but this bear market is also an opportune time for long-term, risk-tolerant investors to accumulate more tokens at lower prices before market sentiment again turns positive.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9966156796,"gmtCreate":1669451531715,"gmtModify":1676538198675,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"[Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9966156796","repostId":"1110767793","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110767793","pubTimestamp":1669522613,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110767793?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-27 12:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110767793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Equities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.</li><li>There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed&#39;s consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</li><li>However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.</li><li>The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.</li></ul><p>The S&amp;P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday&#39;s (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.</p><p>Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed&#39;s policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors&#39; now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).</p><p>But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed&#39;s tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.</p><p><b>Recent Economic Overview</b></p><p>The drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the &#34;smallest annual advance since the start of the year&#34; and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&amp;P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.</p><p>But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that &#34;inflation remains much too high for comfort&#34; and there is &#34;still a long way to go&#34; on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.</p><p>As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October&#39;s retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:</p><blockquote>Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple&#34;</blockquote><p>The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy&#39;s (M), which saw its customers &#34;building larger balances on credit cards&#34;. The latest data shows that Americans&#39; credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.</p><p>The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a &#34;great deal of volatility into this data&#34;. The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed&#39;s implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:</p><blockquote>Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><blockquote>The broad takeaway is a job market that&#39;s cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell&#39;s characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven&#39;t softened yet in an &#34;obvious&#34; way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p>But added softness in business activity indicates that even &#34;some of the more resilient parts of the economy&#34; are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed&#39;s aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&amp;P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a &#34;solid contraction&#34; this month. The index reached the &#34;second lowest level&#34; since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of &#34;rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation&#34;. Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to &#34;help boost flagging sales&#34;, which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.</p><p>Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.</p><p><b>What the Fed Says</b></p><p>Amidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell&#39;s stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:</p><blockquote>CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?</blockquote><blockquote>CHAIR POWELL. We&#39;re not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I&#39;m trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there&#39;s really no pattern there. We&#39;re exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it&#39;s premature to discuss pausing. And it&#39;s not something that we&#39;re thinking about. That&#39;s really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I&#39;ll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that&#39;s my job.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Transcript of Chair Powell&#39;s Press Conference, November 2, 2022</blockquote><p>And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still &#34;a long way to go&#34; when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the &#34;lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation&#34; are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that &#34;the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions&#34; despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy&#39;s current slowdown.:</p><blockquote>The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Bloomberg</blockquote><p><b>What the Past Says</b></p><p>While continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed&#39;s monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy&#39;s relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.</p><p>For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today&#39;s economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct&#39;s role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today&#39;s macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today&#39;s inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.</p><p><b>The &#34;Global Recession&#34; in the 1970s to 1980s</b></p><p><b>Context</b>. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today&#39;s situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.</p><p>Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without &#34;stifling fragile economic growth&#34; at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening</b>. The so-called &#34;stop-go policy&#34; during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, &#34;even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment&#34;. To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell&#39;s commitment to arresting decades-high inflation &#34;even if doing so risks an economic downturn&#34;.</p><p>Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America&#39;s jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom</b>. The S&amp;P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:</p><blockquote>In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call &#34;stop-go&#34; monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the &#34;go&#34; periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the &#34;stop&#34; periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Federal Reserve History</blockquote><p>The on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.</p><blockquote>We are not trying to provoke, and I don&#39;t think we will need to provoke, a recession,&#34; Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was &#34;certainly a possibility&#34; and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing one</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Reuters</blockquote><p><b>Greenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth&#34;in the face of economic turmoil overseas&#34; at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed&#39;s intention to &#34;protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures&#34;. Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.</p><p>By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> Over the course of the Greenspan-led &#34;flip-flop on interest rates&#34; between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.</p><p>Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors&#39; confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&amp;P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the &#34;Greenspan put&#34;, which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused &#34;excessive risk-taking in stock markets&#34;. This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.</p><p><b>The &#34;Great Recession&#34; of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial Crisis</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan&#39;s leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.</p><p>By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American&#39;s net worth.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left &#34;trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages&#34; also compounded pains.</p><p>By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate &#34;at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period&#34; at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke&#39;s leadership was focused on the &#34;use [of the FOMC&#39;s] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate&#34;, which helped manage market&#39;s understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.</p><p>The Fed also implemented &#34;large scale asset purchase&#34; (&#34;LSAP&#34;) programs at the time to ensure &#34;longer-term public and private borrowing rates&#34; were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed&#39;s buyback of mortgage-backed securities (&#34;MBS&#34;) and Treasuries at the time to &#34;reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases&#34; - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to &#34;help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments&#34;.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> The S&amp;P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes.</b> As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that &#34;may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis&#34;.</p><p>However, Bernanke&#39;s subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.</p><p><b>The COVID Pandemic</b></p><p><b>Context.</b> Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.</p><p><b>Timeline of quantitative tightening.</b> The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of &#34;improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term&#34;. As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to &#34;support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation&#34;.</p><p>The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.</p><p><b>S&amp;P 500 Bottom.</b> More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&amp;P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.</p><p><b>Policy mistakes</b>. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as &#34;premature&#34;, given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market&#39;s negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.</p><p><b>What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?</b></p><p>Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.</p><p><b>Steady-State Firm Value</b></p><p>The steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when &#34;NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value&#34;. This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578dbfd401111f95b82426bc244ff6c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"67\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:</p><blockquote>A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].</blockquote><blockquote>Source:Credit Suisse</blockquote><p>The intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of &#34;1&#34;.</p><p>To gauge where the market&#39;s steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.</p><p>What this means is that the Fed&#39;s commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into &#34;restrictive territory&#34; and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee&#39;s target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say &#34;further&#34; since the whole &#34;transitory inflation&#34; narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the &#34;stop-go&#34; disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today&#39;s case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the &#34;effects of lags in monetary policy&#34; and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.</p><p>Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&amp;P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents&#39; respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&amp;P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.</p><p>But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.</p><p>In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97b0f365e67a424db79cb49516d8b5f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"74\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)</p><p>The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:</p><blockquote>Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.</blockquote><blockquote>Source: &#34;Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics&#34;</blockquote><p>As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to &#34;3.7%from a more than five-decade low&#34;. This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.</p><p><b>Future Value Creation Premium</b></p><p>The future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08bfdfec8d89633ac41365f0fcd39554\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"48\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)</p><p>This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.</p><p>In addition to the &#34;competitive advantage period&#34;, which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.</p><p>Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.</p><p><b>Implications for the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?</b></p><p>Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.</p><p>Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.</p><p>And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents&#39; valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&amp;P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.</p><p>And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why We Think SPY And QQQ Risks Are Skewed To The Downside\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-27 12:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4560523-heres-why-we-think-spy-and-qqq-risks-are-skewed-to-the-downside","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110767793","content_text":"SummaryEquities have been on a gradual climb since the beginning of the fourth quarter, with the SPY up 13% and QQQ up 8% QTD.There has also been some cautious optimism among investors on signs of easing inflation and the Fed's consideration for a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.However, company fundamentals that were previously resilient are now just starting to show the first signs of cracks, while continued borrowing cost increases will only weigh on valuations further.The following deep dive analysis will walk through past economic cycles, valuation theory, and recent economic data to gauge where Fed policy might be headed and the related implications on SPY and QQQ valuations as we head into the new year.The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY/SP500) has gradually climbed more than 12% since the fourth quarter began, and closed at a two-month high during Wednesday's (November 23) session after a flurry of economic data released in recent weeks pointed to easing price pressures and market slowdown that could harbinger a dovish Fed policy stance over coming months. October CPI and PPI showed a stronger reduction in prices than expected, while recent data on jobless claims, retail sales, and business activity also pointed to a slowdown in demand, especially for discretionary goods.Despite hawkish commentary from Fed officials still, investors are responding positively to remarks that the pace of rate hikes might be moderating from the recent slew of jumbo 75 bps increases. This has compounded market optimism on a potential shift on the Fed's policy tightening trajectory to a more dovish stance, with investors' now focusing more on a potential slowdown in the pace of coming rate hikes than where the terminal rate might land (i.e. when the Fed might actually pivot).But from a valuation and fundamental perspective, continued rate hikes are poised to squeeze multiples further into contraction, while ensuing deteriorating of financial conditions put corporate earnings at risk. With slowing demand, and mounting macroeconomic uncertainties over the Fed's tightening trajectory, when inflation would peak, and whether a recession is imminently still at large, volatility will likely continue to overpower markets. While it is difficult to gauge when exactly markets might bottom as macro deterioration gains momentum, the following analysis will turn to past tightening cycles and inflation environments, as well as basic valuation theory to explore where the market climate stands today and what to potentially expect over coming months.Recent Economic OverviewThe drumbeat for moderating inflation grew after CPI and PPI figures came in lower than expected. October CPI rose7.7% y/yand 0.4% m/m (core +6.3% y/y, +0.3% m/m), marking the \"smallest annual advance since the start of the year\" and coming in under economist estimates of 7.9% y/y and 0.6% m/m. U.S. PPI also eased in October, advancing 8% y/y(core +6.7% y/) and 0.2% m/m (core 0% m/m) compared with economist estimates of 8.3% y/y and 0.4% m/m. The back-to-back indication of easing price pressures pushed the S&P 500 higher in early November, as markets saw it as an encouraging sign that the Fed might resort to less aggressive tightening in the months ahead and potentially achieve a soft-landing that could be beneficial to the valuation of risky assets that have been roiled across the board this year.But investors were quickly sent back to the sidelines after stronger-than-expectedU.S. retail sales data for October indicated that the economy was still running hot, while Fed officials rushed to warn markets that \"inflation remains much too high for comfort\" and there is \"still a long way to go\" on keeping decades-high price increases under control. But a deeper look into the drivers of retail sales increases would suggest that consumer purchasing power is starting to feel the pinch of both rising inflation and interest rates, and the volume of sales is likely deteriorating too since the October figure of 1.3% is not adjusted for inflation.As discussed in one of our recent coverages, the biggest driver of October's retail sales growth was on basic necessities like food and energy. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary goods like consumer electronics and apparel saw a marked decline, indicating that consumer purchasing power is waning on the back of surging inflation and tightening financial conditions:Meanwhile, retailers of discretionary goods such as apparel, consumer electronics, and sporting goods saw a sales decline of more than 2% over the same period. The results imply continued weakening in consumer purchasing power as inflationary pressures persist, while retailers of discretionary goods are looking to lure buyers ahead of the holiday shopping season with price cuts and steep discounts in an attempt to clear inventories.Source: \"2 Retail Stocks to Watch After Retail Sales Rose in October - We are Watching Amazon and Apple\"The shift in consumer behavior in response to mounting macroeconomic uncertainties ahead is also telling of the impending demand slowdown over the coming months. Consumer credit card debt is fast approaching the pre-pandemic peak of $916 billion as of the end of September, and the continuation of this trend is further corroborated by recent observations by retailer Macy's (M), which saw its customers \"building larger balances on credit cards\". The latest data shows that Americans' credit card debt has increased by 15% y/y, the fastest pace in two decades while card borrowing costs topped 19%, a level not seen in 40 years.The impending slowdown in demand and spending is further supported by the recent rise in jobless claims and contraction in business activity. U.S. jobless claims topped 240,000 during the week ended November 19th, topping consensus estimates of 225,000 and up from 17,000 in the prior week. The jump was the highest in months, a potential sign that the labor market might be cooling as a result of recent mass layoffs across big tech, though economists are also cautioning effects of seasonal attrition, which introduces a \"great deal of volatility into this data\". The U.S. job market has remained stubbornly resilient despite the Fed's implementation of aggressive tools to slow the economy this year, with the jobless rate still at a 50-year low of3.7%:Tech companies represent about 2% of all employment in the country, said Richardson. That compares with 11% for the leisure and hospitality industry, which is still struggling to hire workers, she added.Source:BloombergThe broad takeaway is a job market that's cooling albeit not very quickly. That lines up with Jerome Powell's characterization earlier this week, when the Fed chair acknowledged conditions haven't softened yet in an \"obvious\" way and said the central bank is eyeing a higher peak interest rate than it was two months ago.Source:BloombergBut added softness in business activity indicates that even \"some of the more resilient parts of the economy\" are undoubtedly showing cracks as a result of the Fed's aggressive policy stance deployed this year. The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI, which measures activity across the American private sector, saw a \"solid contraction\" this month. The index reached the \"second lowest level\" since the onset of the pandemic and imitates the dire business environment in 2009. Managers reported slowing demand and new orders due to the effects of \"rising interest rates, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of still elevated inflation\". Consistent with commentary gathered in the latest third quarter earnings season, promotional offers are gaining momentum across suppliers, factories and service providers to \"help boost flagging sales\", which is poised to weigh on private sector earnings over coming months.Although easing inflationary pressures is a welcomed sight, recent data points to rapid unravelling of an economy that is likely headed towards recession. Minutes from the FOMC meeting in November indicated that policymakers are now seeing a 50/50 risk of recession within the next year, compared with a more aggressive forecast of65%on Wall Street and as much as100%by a Bloomberg Economics model.What the Fed SaysAmidst the paradox between recent market optimism and a rapidly deteriorating macro backdrop, the Federal Reserve is sticking to its hawkish policy stance in hopes of preventing an unravelling of the work done to date to quell inflation. Recall Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stern remarks on managing market expectations during the post-meeting conference in November:CHRISTOPHER RUGABER. Great, and just a quick follow. It looks like stock and bond markets are reacting positively to your announcement so far. Is that something you wanted to see? Is that a problem or what-how that might affect your future policy to see this positive reaction?CHAIR POWELL. We're not targeting any one or two particular things. Our message should be-what I'm trying to do is make sure that our message is clear, which is that we think we have a ways to go, we have some ground to cover with interest rates before we get to, before we get to that level of interest rates that we think is sufficiently restrictive…If you look at the-I have a table of the last 12 months of 12-month readings, and there's really no pattern there. We're exactly where we were a year ago. So I would also say, it's premature to discuss pausing. And it's not something that we're thinking about. That's really not a conversation to be had now. We have a ways to go. And the last thing I'll say is that I would want people to understand our commitment to getting this done and to not making the mistake of not doing enough or the mistake of withdrawing our strong policy and doing that too soon. So those-I control those messages, and that's my job.Source:Transcript of Chair Powell's Press Conference, November 2, 2022And the same policy stance has been proclaimed unanimously across commentary from Fed officials as of late, with many sticking to the narrative that there is still \"a long way to go\" when it comes to quelling inflation. Despite acknowledging that the \"lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation\" are now materializing, which draws the need to start considering a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes, policymakers remain fixed on tightening policy into restrictive territory, nonetheless. The hawkish commentary maintained indicates that \"the Fed is likely to lean against easing financial conditions\" despite recent data supporting that the economy is slowing. Specifically, a slowing economy is what the Fed essentially wants to ensure inflation is reined in. The intention of continued hawkishness is to prevent markets from mistaking any potential near-term deceleration in the pace of rate increases with a reversal of the economy's current slowdown.:The big picture illustrates that the Fed intends to slow down in order to allow more time for lags to operate and cumulative tightening to date to show up in the data. The hawkish talk from Chair Powell and many Fed officials subsequently is likely intended to provide air cover for the slowing to take place without an excessive easing of financial conditions.Source:BloombergWhat the Past SaysWhile continued market volatility in the near-term is almost certain, when the market might bottom remains a big question mark. The Fed's monetary policy tightening campaign implemented this year is the most aggressive in 40-years, but the economy's relative resilience this time around when compared to the past suggests that some macroeconomic factors have inevitably changed.For instance, technology plays a bigger role in today's economic development, while simpler factors like consumer behavior and the social construct's role in the global macro economy have also evolved significantly in the past decade alone. The recent COVID pandemic and the ensuing disruptions to businesses and global supply chains has also injected further complexity into today's macroeconomic conditions compared to past economic downturns, inflationary environments, and monetary policy tightening cycles. Yet, there are also many overlapping similarities between today's inflationary environment and monetary policy tightening cycles compared to ones in the past that could potentially shed some light on where the economy stands today and what potentially lies ahead.The \"Global Recession\" in the 1970s to 1980sContext. Inflation reached double-digits in the U.S. and across major economies during the 1980s. Similar to today's situation, soaring food and energy prices were culprit to runaway inflation at the time. The back-to-back energy crisis stemming from the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s and the Iranian Revolution later the same decade, which resulted in a rapid decline in supplies, pushed oil prices up by as much as fourfold at the time.Inflation topped 12% in 1974 with the Fed funds rate rising from 7% to 16% by early 1975, pushing the economy into recession. A stark Fed pivot followed with the Fed funds rate cut to 5.25% by April 1975, causing inflation to return while growth remained stagnate. By the time the second energy crisis came around, accommodative policies were deployed by the Fed in hopes of countering unemployment, but backfired by worsening the pace of price increases - inflation rose from below 5% in early 1976 prior to the second energy crisis resulting from the Iranian Revolution, to 7% by 1979. The Federal Funds Rate was pushed from 6.9% to 10% over the same period in hopes of stamping out inflationary pressure without \"stifling fragile economic growth\" at the time, but to no avail, which led to an extended period of stagflation instead and pushed the economy into recession again.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The so-called \"stop-go policy\" during the 1970s came to an end when Paul Volcker took office as Fed Chair in 1979. Volcker made quelling inflation a priority, \"even if it came at the detriment of short-term employment\". To some extent, this is similar to Fed Chair Powell's commitment to arresting decades-high inflation \"even if doing so risks an economic downturn\".Inflation had already entered double-digits at 11% when Volcker became Fed Chair, while America's jobless rate was inching close to 6% near the end of the 1970s. Fed rate hikes continued, pushing the economy into deep recession by 1982 with the unemployment rate reaching 11%. Over a three-year span, the Volker-led Fed pushed its benchmark rate as high as 20% and stayed in the double-digit range until inflation had fallen to 5% by late 1982. The Fed pivoted then with rates declining to single-digits, alleviating unemployment from the peak of 11% to 8% by 1983.S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 traded at single-digit(7.4x to 9.0x) estimated earnings when Volcker led an aggressive quantitative tightening cycle, which was reflective of the lower value of future cash flows. The market subsequently recovered when it became structurally clear that double-digit inflation was put away for good in the latter half of the 1980s.Policy mistakes. The stop-go monetary policy implemented in the 1970s has been largely viewed as a policy mistake today:In the 1970s, the Fed pursued what economists would call \"stop-go\" monetary policy, which alternated between fighting high unemployment and high inflation. During the \"go\" periods, the Fed lowered interest rates to loosen the money supply and target lower unemployment. During the \"stop\" periods, when inflation mounted, the Fed would raise interest rates to reduce inflationary pressure.Source:Federal Reserve HistoryThe on-and-off tightening eventually let inflation and unemployment run loose through the decade. Today, Fed Chair Powell looks to be taking a page from the 1970s on managing risks of runaway inflation, cautioning against a premature loosening of monetary policies even if economic recession is becoming a certain possibility.We are not trying to provoke, and I don't think we will need to provoke, a recession,\" Powell said at a hearing before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, although he acknowledged that a recession was \"certainly a possibility\" and events in the last few months around the world had made it more difficult to reduce inflation without causing oneSource:ReutersGreenspan Tightening 1999 to 2000Context. The Federal Reserve had resorted to monetary easing in 1998 as a pre-emptive measure to shore up U.S. growth\"in the face of economic turmoil overseas\" at the time, even though unemployment was at a historical low rate of 4.5%. But by 1999, it was clear the U.S. economy was booming, exhibiting a combination of robust consumer demand and job market, while inflation remained in check. This led the Fed to reverse courseunder Alan Greenspan leadership, and aboard a rate hike cycle that consisted of a 175 bps increases in 1999 from 4.75% to 6.5% by mid-2000.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 1999 tightening cycle was largely viewed as the Fed's intention to \"protect consumers and financial markets from something it has yet to see - a substantial rise in inflationary pressures\". Inflation was largely flat at the time, while GDP growth almos thalved from 4.3% in the first quarter to 2.3% in the second quarter at the time.By mid-2000, the Fed funds rate had reached 6.5%. Coinciding with the dotcom bubble burst that led to severe market instability, fears that continued tightening would slow the U.S. economy into recession had escalated. A Fed pivot ensued with rates cutting back to the 3% range, followed by further reductions in 2001 after the 9-11 World Trade Center terrorist attack that took the Fed funds rate to the 1% range.S&P 500 Bottom. Over the course of the Greenspan-led \"flip-flop on interest rates\" between 1999 and 2001, stocks actually sold off even when the Fed pivoted to monetary easing. The selloff continued into late 2002 to levels not seen since 1998.Market instability was marked by a combination of lofty valuations in internet stocks that fell to shambles after a slew of fraudulent reporting (cue Enron) and bankruptcies surfaced, underscoring rapid erosion of investors' confidence. The 9-11 terrorist attack also escalated uncertainties over the U.S. economic outlook at the time, adding pressure to the market downturn at the time. The S&P 500 bottomed by late 2002, trading at double-digit (~30x) estimated earnings - a stark contrast to observations in the 1980s - which was consistent with record-low borrowing costs at the time.Policy mistakes. The low interest rates embraced by Greenspan to arrest market instability and declines was largely known as the \"Greenspan put\", which is viewed today as a key factor that led the run-up to the 2008 housing market collapse. The Greenspan put instilled a mentality that the Fed would restore market stability in the event of declines - essentially, moral hazard - which caused \"excessive risk-taking in stock markets\". This eventually led to high-flying valuations, particularly in internet stocks, that crashed in the 2000s. Similar happened again when financial markets collapsed in 2008.The \"Great Recession\" of 2007 to 2009 and the 2008 Financial CrisisContext. Rate hikes resumed under Greenspan's leadership in 2004 when GDP growth was pushing 4% while inflation was at 2.7% and unemployment at 5.4%, showing signs of an overheating economy. Interest rates rose from 1.0% to 5.25% over the course of 17 incremental hikes between 2004 and 2006, when inflation surpassed 3%.By 2007, GDP growth had fallen to 2%, and deteriorated rapidly to 0.1% the following year with unemployment surpassing 7% and inflation pushing 4%. The U.S. economy had effectively entered recession at the time, with unemployment reaching 10% by late 2009 fuelled by the housing bubble burst in 2008 (i.e. 2008 financial crisis). The S&P 500 fell 57% over the same period, wiping out close to$15 trillion in American's net worth.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The 2004 to 2006 tightening cycle peaked with the Fed funds rate at 5.25%, but was insufficient in stamping out inflation and keeping unemployment at bay. This effectively drove the U.S. economy into recession by 2007, with a combination of fiscal and monetary policy easing implemented under the leadership of then-president George W. Bush and then-Fed-Chair Ben Bernanke with aims of shoring up the economy. The 2008 financial crisis ensuing from the housing bubble burst that left \"trillions of dollars of worthless investments in subprime mortgages\" also compounded pains.By the end of 2008, the Fed funds rate had already been cut to the0% to 0.25%range to stem the economy from unravelling further. The FOMC had intended to keep the Fed funds rate \"at exceptionally low levels for some time and then for an extended period\" at the time, and the near-zero range eventually held until 2015. Monetary policy under Bernanke's leadership was focused on the \"use [of the FOMC's] policy statement to provide forward guidance for the federal funds rate\", which helped manage market's understanding of economic and financial conditions during the Great Recession.The Fed also implemented \"large scale asset purchase\" (\"LSAP\") programs at the time to ensure \"longer-term public and private borrowing rates\" were kept at low levels in alignment with the near-zero Fed funds rate. This included the Fed's buyback of mortgage-backed securities (\"MBS\") and Treasuries at the time to \"reduce the cost and increase the availability of credit for home purchases\" - a detrimental corner of the market during the financial crisis. The LSAP program is also similar to the MBS and Treasury buybacks implemented by the Fed at the onset of the COVID pandemic in2020to \"help ensure chaotic markets function properly [and] ensure credit flows to corporations as well as state and local governments\".S&P 500 Bottom. The S&P 500 fell 57% between October 2007 and March 2009, though the economy remained weak with unemployment still on the run towards 9.5% in June 2009 before peaking at 10% in October 2009. The index was trading at more than 70x estimated earnings at its trough in March 2009, which was consistent with the hit on corporate fundamental performance across the board, as well as record-low borrowing costs at the 0% to 0.25% range. The valuation multiple moderated to the 20x-range of forward earnings by 2010 as corporate fundamentals started to recover, while the Fed funds rate was held steady at the near-zero range.Policy mistakes. As discussed in the earlier section, the housing bubble burst that also contributed to the Global Recession from 2007 to 2009 was likely partially driven by market moral hazard instilled by the Greenspan put. Recall that Bernanke also sought to rapid rate cuts between 2007 and 2008 in response to deteriorating macro conditions and the sliding market, adopting a similar strategy as Greenspan that \"may have been a catalyst contributing to the conditions of the 2008 financial crisis\".However, Bernanke's subsequent adherence to low interest rates for an extended period, as well as bank bailouts that cost as much as$700 billion, and other monetary easing policies such as the LSAP program ($1.75 trillion) was key to the long, yet stable market recovery in the years that followed.The COVID PandemicContext. Fed rate hikes resumed in 2015 under Fed Chair Janet Yellen after economic growth showed an extended period of stabilization in the 2% range, while inflation was flat with unemployment at 5%. The hikes continued even after Jerome Powell took over as Fed Chair in 2018 until the Fed funds rate reached 2.5% by the end of the same year.Timeline of quantitative tightening. The Federal Reserve resumed monetary policy tightening in 2015 upon evidence of \"improvement in the labor market [and reasonable confidence] that inflation would move back to its 2% objective over the medium term\". As mentioned in the earlier section, unemployment had fallen to 5% in 2015 from the peak of 10% during late 2009. The intention was to pursue rate hikes while also maintaining an accommodative policy stance to \"support further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2% inflation\".The Fed pivoted to rate cuts by the summer of 2019 after the global equity market lost close to $7 trillion of its value by the end of 2018. However, GDP maintained at the 2%-range at the time, while unemployment was at 3.5% and inflation inched up to 1.9%, which stoked concerns of an eventual economic downturn. Rates were cut from the peak of 2.5% in late 2018 to 1.75% by late 2019. Rapid easing took place with rates sliding to the 0% to 0.25% range at the onset of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.S&P 500 Bottom. More than $7 trillion in global market value was lost in 2018, with the S&P 500 giving up close to 10% of its value (or almost 18% from the 2018 peak in September) before finding bottom near year-end. The index was trading at about 20x forward earnings at the time, which was consistent with rising, yet still low, interest rates at the time, relative to past financial crises.Policy mistakes. Market critics have viewed the 2015 rate hike cycle as \"premature\", given inflation was still struggling to climb back towards the 2% Fed target at the time. It was not until 2018 when inflation topped 2%, which also coincided with market's negative reaction to rising borrowing costs following the preceding years of a near-zero Fed funds rate.What Exactly is Valuation Composed of?Before drawing on past economic cycles to gauge forward expectations, we turn to basic valuation theory to understand the interaction between key driving factors, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment and GDP. Most of the time, when we think of valuation, we think of the fundamental leg (e.g. growth, earnings, cash flows, etc.) and the valuation multiple (which is influenced by cost of capital / discount rate). But in economic theory, valuation can also be split into the following two components: steady-state firm value + future value creation.Steady-State Firm ValueThe steady-state value is defined as the value of the firm when \"NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) is sustainable indefinitely and incremental investments will neither add, nor subtract, value\". This does not necessarily mean the point at which a company grows at 0% forever, but rather the point of growth that stays constant regardless of whether incremental investments are made (i.e. it could be a steady-state perpetual growth or declining rate).Steady-State Value Formula (Valuation Theory)One way to depict steady-state value is via the steady-state firm value P/E ratio, which is defined as 1 divided by cost of capital:A company can continue to grow earnings as it invests at the cost of capital. It will just fail to create value, and hence should trade at its steady-state worth. We can readily translate from the steady-state value to a steady-state price-earnings multiple, which is the reciprocal of the cost of [capital].Source:Credit SuisseThe intuition is to find the valuation multiple (i.e. P/E ratio, in this case) reflective of the point at which continued investments at the cost of capital will continue to drive earnings growth, but not necessarily yield any incremental value creation, and hence stay at a steady-state of \"1\".To gauge where the market's steady-state value might be headed, we turn to key driving factor, cost of capital. Cost of capital is essentially the borrowing cost, which can be benchmarked against the Fed funds rate. Based on an understanding of past economic cycles, the Federal Reserve today is likely leaning towards the Volcker era, with a sprinkle of Bernanke.What this means is that the Fed's commitment to taming inflation - even if it comes at the cost of some near-term economic pain - will eventually lead to more rate hikes in coming months, especially as inflation today remains far from the 2% target. This is consistent with the growing drumbeat of calls by Fed officials to raise rates into \"restrictive territory\" and holding it there until there is structural evidence inflation is back on track towards the committee's target range. To prevent further policy mistakes (we say \"further\" since the whole \"transitory inflation\" narrative last year obviously did not work out), responding to recent signs of slowing demand with a Fed pivot is essentially off the table, as implementing such as policy would likely be begging for a repeat of the \"stop-go\" disaster in the 1970s before Volcker. At best, the Fed will likely stick to what it has been doing at recent meetings - setting clean and clear forward expectations for markets like Bernanke had. In today's case, this means there will be more tightening in financial conditions that could potentially push the terminal rate higher, while keeping in mind of the \"effects of lags in monetary policy\" and start considering a moderation in the pace of coming rate hikes.Traders are largely expecting a moderation in the pace of rate hikes from the jumbo 75 bps seen over the summer and fall, to a half-point increase at the coming December meeting, which would bring the Fed funds rate range from the current 3.75% to 4%, to 4.25% to 4.5%. The terminal rate is expected to reach 5% to 5.25%based on current prices on 1H23 Fed swaps. Substituting the estimated terminal rate of about 5% plus an additional percentage point to account for forward market risk premium (reflective of difference between 1-year Treasury yield of about 4.75% today and the current Fed funds rate range of 3.75% and 4%) as proxy for market cost of capital in gauging the steady-state firm value P/E ratio would yield about 17x. The S&P 500, which can be viewed as a proxy for the weighted average of its constituents' respective valuations, currently trades at about 20x estimated earnings. If market steady-state firm value is to be adjusted as a result of continued Fed policy tightening, the S&P 500 could potentially move another leg lower by as much as 15% between now and when the Fed funds rate peaks in the current tightening cycle, which is estimated to occur by mid-2023.But there are a myriad of other factors that could impact where the so-called steady-state firm value is headed as Fed tightening continues over coming months, including economic growth and investor sentiment on a broader basis. This is consistent with the observation discussed in earlier sections that market bottomed in March 2009 even though the economy continued to deteriorate with unemployment hitting trough at 10% seven months later in October 2009. This could both be reflective of the fact that market is forward looking (or priced at estimated earnings and forward macro expectations) and/or the lag effect in which monetary policy works, among other factors. What this essentially means is that while rate hikes are expected to peak by mid-2023, it does not necessarily mean that is also when the market will bottom. But nonetheless, even if it is almost impossible to gauge the exact timing, it is more likely that not that the market is skewed towards further downside risks through the first quarter of 2023 at the minimum.In addition to the steady-state P/E ratio method, the Gordon growth model is another way to gauge steady-state firm value.Gordon Growth Model (Valuation Theory)The key assumption here other than cost of capital is GDP growth. GDP growth is typically used as a key benchmark to gauge the implied perpetual growth of a company, with addition consideration of the maturity of its industry as well as other company-specific factors such as market leadership, competitive advantages, and/or market share:Companies operating in industries that are higher growth in nature are typically valued at a perpetual growth rate closer to or more than GDP, given their greater contributions to economic growth. Alternatively, companies operating in lower growth and/or mature industries are typically allocated a lower perpetual growth rate.Source: \"Shorting Tesla: Bridging Lofty Valuations to Economics\"As discussed in the earlier section, demand is likely to show a marked slowdown in coming months as consumer purchasing power wanes, especially if unemployment worsens, which will lead to further deteriorating in economic growth. Even though the labor market has remained largely resilient despite the recent slew of high-paid tech layoffs (accounts foronly ~2%of total U.S. employment), consumer weakness is expected to tame demand further and eventually hit corporate earnings, potentially resulting in more cost-driven job cuts. This is further corroborated by the gradual uptick in recent jobless claimsas well as jobless rate to \"3.7%from a more than five-decade low\". This means GDP is likely to slow as interest rates increase, widening the spread between cost of capital and growth in the denominator of the Gordon growth model, and inadvertently, diminishing the steady-state firm value.Future Value Creation PremiumThe future value creation premium accounts for the incremental value that additional investments at the cost of capital would earn (i.e. return on capital), and also takes into consideration the time period in which this value-creating opportunity would last.Future Value Creation Formula (Valuation Theory)This is essentially a premium to the steady-state firm value, and explains the lofty valuations relative to broader markets observed in certain stocks, such as Apple(AAPL), Tesla(TSLA) and Snowflake(SNOW), today. Admittedly, these companies have either or all of outperforming balance sheets, profit margins, and/or growth prospects relative to peers, but not all are valued in proportion to the mean growth-valuation ratio observed among their respective peer groups.In addition to the \"competitive advantage period\", which measures the anticipated time period in which the added value-creating opportunity would last, key assumptions in deriving future value creation premium is return on capital and cost of capital. And return on capital can be substituted by anticipated economic expansion, or GDP growth - when the economy is good, growth and profit margins will likely perform better, and vice versa. But as discussed in the earlier section, GDP growth is likely skewed to the downside within the foreseeable future as demand continues to slow and profit margins get squeezed as a result of high input costs, and near-term requirements for more-than-usual promotional offers to offload excess product inventories.Paired with the anticipation for greater increases to the cost of capital as a result of Fed hawkishness that will more likely than not continue for a while longer, the cost-return spread in the numerator of the future value creation component of valuation is poised to narrow. And as cost of capital continues to increase, the denominator will also expand, hence diminishing the future value creation component of broader market valuations, which corroborates the expectation for more downside potential within the near-term.Implications for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 - Is the Bottom Near?Based on valuation theory, and the anticipation for sustained hawkish Fed sentiment drawn from historical observations, the broader market is likely to see further volatility ahead as valuations adjust to rising rates and declining demand. While the timing at which markets will bottom remains uncertain, we are of the view that company fundamentals are only just starting to feel the impact of consumer weakness, which points to further value erosion through 1H23.Specifically, consumer spending has remained resilient through the first half of 2022 despite deteriorating sentiment due to surging inflation and rising borrowing costs. But headed into the first half of the fourth quarter, declining business activity and warnings of a marked slowdown among consumer-centric industries such as retail underscore that waning consumer sentiment is now really materializing into real weakness. This is further supported by the consistent drop in American household savings and rise in credit card debt, among other observations, discussed earlier on in this analysis.And a specific note to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ: QQQ/NDX), constituents' valuations are likely to be hit harder compared to those in the S&P 500 given their cash flows are further out (with some still in pre-revenue phase and/or unprofitable) from realization and subject to a heavier discount as costs of capital increase. The index also consists of constituents with some of the biggest valuation premiums given lofty forward growth expectations previously priced in that may not materialize as expected within the foreseeable future, thus pointing to greater vulnerability to downside risks ahead.And given risks of further macro deterioration are now skewed higher with recent economic data pointing to a moderation in the labor market, while monetary policy tightening continues to flow through different corners of the economy, the ensuing rise in the likelihood of a recession will likely take the market a leg lower through the first half of 2023, even if we start to see structural easing in price pressures.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9952394874,"gmtCreate":1674439413299,"gmtModify":1676538940392,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ [Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9952394874","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9067719632,"gmtCreate":1652508423526,"gmtModify":1676535114539,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[sick]&nbsp;","listText":"[sick]&nbsp;","text":"[sick]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9067719632","repostId":"1176148703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176148703","pubTimestamp":1652488034,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1176148703?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-14 08:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176148703","media":"investorplace","summary":"As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUN","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>As <b>Terra</b>(<b>LUNA-USD</b>) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA crypto</li><li>Founder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the network</li><li>Analysts are torn over whether LUNA prices will ever recover</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae9916c23f2f928ab45c1902098e97c8\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Source: David Sandron / Shutterstock.com</p><p>It’s difficult to have faith in Terra at this point. The network is the talk of crypto bulls and crypto bears alike in the face of a major price meltdown this week. Those still invested are either buying in while prices are incredibly low, or they’ve lost so much they are just hoping for a miracle. Is LUNA going to come back from this?</p><p>Do Kwon, the founder of the Terra network, sure seems to think so. Kwon has been trying to assuage investors since the projectbegan to seriously tank. He is doing this through the developers’three-pronged approachto salvaging the product.</p><p>The first two parts of the plan involve a large <b>TerraUSD</b>(<b>UST-USD</b>) burn, in order to stabilize the token back at $1. Over 371 million UST on the <b>Ethereum</b>(<b><u>ETH-USD</u></b>) network will be burned, as will all UST remaining in the Terra community pool. The third prong of this plan involves staking 240 million LUNA to stabilize governance and keep a whale from seizing control over the network.</p><p>Atop these plans, the developers are also taking on a community proposal to increase the burn rate of UST. Moreover, they temporarilyhalted the blockchain completely, freezing all unsettled transactions. This was to prevent users from taking advantage of the low price of LUNA and buying it all up at once.</p><h2>Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? Analysts Can’t Decide.</h2><p>While the LUNA crypto is now trading at only a fraction of 1 cent, investors might be throwing their hands up in the air. Can this bailout plan save the Terra network?</p><p>Many have their doubts. It seems that most talk about the network online is quite negative, with lots of investors already considering the project dead. <i>The Motley Fool’s</i>Trevor Jennewine isadvising investors steer clear of LUNAnow, even with its exceptionally low cost. Price predicting websites like<i>CoinPriceForecast</i>and <i>DigitalCoinPrice</i>see no growth opportunities for the network on the horizon either. The two sites predict an end-of-year price of 6 cents and less than 1 cent, respectively, for LUNA.</p><p>There are others still with some hope still for the network. Crypto analysis website <i>InvestingCube</i>said that a LUNA crypto price recoverycould very well be a possibility. The report suggests that UST returning to $1 could catalyze a LUNA gain, allowing it to regain its footing. Price prediction site <i>WalletInvestor</i>is remaining extremely bullish with its 12-month LUNA prediction. It expects the coin to reach $151 by May 2023. Meanwhile, peer outlet<i>Gov Capital</i>is predicting a $108 price for the coin in the same time frame.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the LUNA Crypto Recover? What Analysts Are Saying About the Future of Terra\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-14 08:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/><strong>investorplace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA cryptoFounder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the networkAnalysts are torn...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2022/05/will-the-luna-crypto-recover-what-analysts-are-saying-about-the-future-of-terra/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176148703","content_text":"As Terra(LUNA-USD) prices continue dropping, investors might be convinced this is the end of the LUNA cryptoFounder Do Kwon says developers are working diligently to right the networkAnalysts are torn over whether LUNA prices will ever recoverSource: David Sandron / Shutterstock.comIt’s difficult to have faith in Terra at this point. The network is the talk of crypto bulls and crypto bears alike in the face of a major price meltdown this week. Those still invested are either buying in while prices are incredibly low, or they’ve lost so much they are just hoping for a miracle. Is LUNA going to come back from this?Do Kwon, the founder of the Terra network, sure seems to think so. Kwon has been trying to assuage investors since the projectbegan to seriously tank. He is doing this through the developers’three-pronged approachto salvaging the product.The first two parts of the plan involve a large TerraUSD(UST-USD) burn, in order to stabilize the token back at $1. Over 371 million UST on the Ethereum(ETH-USD) network will be burned, as will all UST remaining in the Terra community pool. The third prong of this plan involves staking 240 million LUNA to stabilize governance and keep a whale from seizing control over the network.Atop these plans, the developers are also taking on a community proposal to increase the burn rate of UST. Moreover, they temporarilyhalted the blockchain completely, freezing all unsettled transactions. This was to prevent users from taking advantage of the low price of LUNA and buying it all up at once.Will the LUNA Crypto Recover? Analysts Can’t Decide.While the LUNA crypto is now trading at only a fraction of 1 cent, investors might be throwing their hands up in the air. Can this bailout plan save the Terra network?Many have their doubts. It seems that most talk about the network online is quite negative, with lots of investors already considering the project dead. The Motley Fool’sTrevor Jennewine isadvising investors steer clear of LUNAnow, even with its exceptionally low cost. Price predicting websites likeCoinPriceForecastand DigitalCoinPricesee no growth opportunities for the network on the horizon either. The two sites predict an end-of-year price of 6 cents and less than 1 cent, respectively, for LUNA.There are others still with some hope still for the network. Crypto analysis website InvestingCubesaid that a LUNA crypto price recoverycould very well be a possibility. The report suggests that UST returning to $1 could catalyze a LUNA gain, allowing it to regain its footing. Price prediction site WalletInvestoris remaining extremely bullish with its 12-month LUNA prediction. It expects the coin to reach $151 by May 2023. Meanwhile, peer outletGov Capitalis predicting a $108 price for the coin in the same time frame.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9086518089,"gmtCreate":1650469354181,"gmtModify":1676534731476,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"buy salt and pepper..","listText":"buy salt and pepper..","text":"buy salt and pepper..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9086518089","repostId":"1138549139","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138549139","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1650468503,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138549139?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-20 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Stocks Mixed in Morning Trading,Nasdaq Fell Nearly 1%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138549139","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks mixed in morning trading.Nasdaq fell 0.97% while Dow Jone, S&P500 rose 0.67% and 0.08% s","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks mixed in morning trading.Nasdaq fell 0.97% while Dow Jone, S&amp;P500 rose 0.67% and 0.08% separately.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea190cbad9c08911945b7be01ee2a155\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Stocks Mixed in Morning Trading,Nasdaq Fell Nearly 1%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Stocks Mixed in Morning Trading,Nasdaq Fell Nearly 1%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-20 23:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>U.S. stocks mixed in morning trading.Nasdaq fell 0.97% while Dow Jone, S&amp;P500 rose 0.67% and 0.08% separately.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea190cbad9c08911945b7be01ee2a155\" tg-width=\"517\" tg-height=\"114\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138549139","content_text":"U.S. stocks mixed in morning trading.Nasdaq fell 0.97% while Dow Jone, S&P500 rose 0.67% and 0.08% separately.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9015516088,"gmtCreate":1649509958596,"gmtModify":1676534523272,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Weak","listText":"Weak","text":"Weak","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9015516088","repostId":"1179777825","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179777825","pubTimestamp":1649469608,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179777825?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-09 10:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179777825","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Summary</p><ul><li>Palantir&#39;s and Snowflake&#39;s shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies&#39; forward-looking guidance disappointed the market.</li><li>The long-term outlook for both SNOW and PLTR is good, considering the growth in new data creation and the expected revenue increase and profit margin expansion for the two companies.</li><li>Palantir is the more attractive Buy of the two stocks, taking into account both valuations and key risk factors.</li></ul><p>Elevator Pitch</p><p>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a better buy compared with Snowflake Inc. (SNOW). I prefer PLTR over SNOW because the former has maintained a good balance between revenue growth and profit margins. Palantir is expected to grow its top line by more than +30% every year going forward, while still delivering normalized net profit margins of above +20% in the future. In comparison, Snowflake&#39;s top line growth expectations are better, but it is relatively less profitable. More importantly, Palantir is much cheaper than Snowflake based on the forward Enterprise Value-to-Revenue metric.</p><p>How Are SNOW And PLTR&#39;s Stock Performance?</p><p>The year-to-date stock price performance of SNOW and PLTR have been poor on both an absolute and relative basis.</p><p><b>Snowflake&#39;s And Palantir&#39;s 2022 Year-To-Date Share Price Performance</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dfec436e13ecbd10b4390c8ec9c312b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"221\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Seeking Alpha</p><p>The shares of Palantir and Snowflake were down by -29.5% and -37.4%, respectively, so far this year. During the same period, the S&amp;P 500 declined by a relatively modest -5.2%. Both SNOW and PLTR saw their shares fall the most around mid-March 2022. March 11, 2022, <i>Seeking Alpha News</i>articlehighlighted that &#34;Snowflake shares fell sharply&#34; on the day alongside &#34;several other cloud-related stocks, as investors continued to shun technology stocks.&#34;</p><p>Apart from weak investor sentiment, which has hurt the share price performance of technology stocks in general, there are also company-specific headwinds relating to Snowflake and Palantir, which I detail in the next section.</p><p>SNOW And PLTR Stock Key Metrics</p><p>Both SNOW&#39;s and PLTR&#39;s forward-looking guidance disappointed the market. This was a key factor that led to the sell-down in their shares in 2022 year-to-date.</p><p>Starting with Palantir, the company released the company&#39;s Q4 2021 financial results in a media release issued on February 17, 2022, before the market opened. PLTR&#39;s shares subsequently fell by -16% to close at $11.77 on the day of the earnings release. Palantir has yet to fully recover from its post-results announcement correction, as its last closing share price of $12.84 as of April 7, 2022, was still -8% below its pre-results stock price of $13.97 (closing price on February 16th).</p><p>PLTR&#39;s top line expanded by +34% YOY to $433 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. This was+4%above what the market had expected. The company&#39;s robust revenue growth was driven by a +71% YOY increase in the number of customers, from 139 as of December 31, 2020, to 237 as of year-end 2021, as per its recent quarterly results presentation. Palantir grew its client base much faster than what Wall Street was expecting; the sell-side&#39;s consensus 2021 year-end estimate was 219 clients, according to<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>.</p><p>However, Palantir&#39;s non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share contracted from $0.03 in Q4 2020 to $0.02 in Q4 2021. More significantly, PLTR&#39;s fourth quarter bottom line was approximately-44%below the market consensus EPS forecast. Palantir&#39;s total adjusted costs (excluding stock-based compensation) rose by +42% YOY to $309 million in the most recent quarter. This was largely attributable to a substantial jump in commercial sales headcount, from 12 as of end-2020 to 80 as of December 31, 2021, as indicated in PLTR&#39;s Q4 2021 results presentation.</p><p>Looking forward, PLTR&#39;s revenue guidance was encouraging. As per its Q4 2021 earnings press release, Palantir guided for Q1 2022 revenue of $443 million (implying +30% YOY top line expansion) and &#34;annual revenue growth of 30% or greater through 2025.&#34;</p><p>However, Palantir&#39;s near-term profitability guidance didn&#39;t meet market expectations. The company expects to achieve a non-GAAP adjusted operating profit margin of 23% in the first quarter of this year, which is much lower than Wall Street&#39;s consensus Q1 2022 operating margin estimate of 28%, as per<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>. At the <i>Morgan Stanley</i>(MS)Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference on March 9, 2022, PLTR explained that &#34;the investments in the product&#34; in 2021 &#34;drove more improvement faster than we actually thought they might,&#34; and the company is &#34;giving ourselves a little space there to invest as aggressively as possible.&#34;</p><p>Moving on to Snowflake, its Q4 2021 revenue of $360 million beat the sell-side consensus by+3%, and this represented a +102% YOY growth. But SNOW&#39;s shares still dropped by -15%, from a $264.69 close on March 2, 2022, to $224.02 on March 3, 2022 (post-earnings release). In the next one month or so, Snowflake&#39;s stock price declined further, closing at $213.88 as of April 7, 2022.</p><p>SNOW&#39;s shares performed poorly because investors were unsatisfied with the company&#39;s fiscal 2023 (YE January 31) revenue growth guidance. Based on the midpoint of Snowflake&#39;s management, the company expected its revenue to increase by +66% in FY 2023. This implied a substantial slowdown in SNOW&#39;s top line expansion, as the company&#39;s sales grew by +106% in fiscal 2022.</p><p>Snowflake attributed the weaker-than-expected revenue growth guidance for FY 2023 to platform performance improvements, which will provide more value to its clients. SNOW acknowledged at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media &amp; Telecom Conference on March 8, 2022, that &#34;every performance improvement we do, we may have a revenue hit,&#34; but it stressed that &#34;those customers are consuming more&#34; in around half a year&#39;s time.</p><p>In the subsequent two sections of the article, I will touch on the similarities and the differences between Palantir and Snowflake.</p><p>Do Snowflake And Palantir Share The Same Market?</p><p>Snowflake and Palantir do share the same market to a large extent.</p><p>A December 2020research report published by <i>Harris Williams</i> classified both PLTR and SNOW as infrastructure software companies. More specifically, the investment bank placed these two companies in the &#34;data&#34; sub-segment of the infrastructure software sector alongside other listed companies like Splunk (SPLK) and Alteryx (AYX), among others.</p><p><b>Harris Williams&#39;Definition Of The Data Sub-Segment Of The Infrastructure Software Sector</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d28544977ca9c17ef60304a8f96c55\" tg-width=\"474\" tg-height=\"280\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Harris Williams</p><p>In a blog post published on November 11, 2020, Palantir describes itself as a &#34;software company&#34; which builds &#34;digital infrastructure for data-driven operations.&#34; This provides support for Harris Williams&#39; categorization of PLTR as an infrastructure company that belongs in the data sub-category.</p><p>In summary, both companies operate in the infrastructure software market. This is also where the similarities between PLTR and SNOW end, as I highlight in the next section.</p><p>How Do Snowflake And Palantir Differ?</p><p>Referring to PLTR&#39;s November 2020 blog post (which I referred to in the preceding section) again, Palantir mentioned that it plays the role of &#34;data processor.&#34; PLTR emphasized that its platforms &#34;allow organizations to better manage&#34; data &#34;by bringing the right data to the people&#34; and enabling &#34;them to take data-driven decisions&#34; and &#34;conduct sophisticated analytic.&#34;</p><p>In contrast, Snowflake&#39;s cloud data platform, known as Data Cloud, is mainly focused on data warehousing and data sharing; and it partners with other companies to offer solutions such as data analytics to its clients, as per the chart below.</p><p><b>SNOW&#39;s Data Cloud Platform And Partnerships With Other Data Analytics Companies</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ced24e78a2353a0f9f8a45e9fab883b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Snowflake</p><p>I touch on the two companies&#39; growth prospects in the long run in the next section.</p><p>What Are Snowflake And Palantir&#39;s Long-Term Outlooks?</p><p>Both Snowflake and Palantir have long growth runways.</p><p>Interactive Data Trends (IDC) has forecast that new data created will expand at a CAGR of +23%, from 64.1ZB in 2020 to 175ZB in 2025, according to January 31, 2022, article published in <i>CDO Trends</i>. As more data gets created, it is natural that this will boost demand for data warehousing, sharing, processing, and analytics going forward. This will be positive for both PLTR and SNOW.</p><p>PLTR and SNOW are expected to deliver robust top-line growth and profit margin expansion over the next few years. Snowflake will grow its revenue at a faster pace compared with Palantir, but the former&#39;s profitability will still be inferior to that of the latter.</p><p>According to consensus sell-side financial estimates sourced from<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>, Snowflake&#39;s sales are forecasted to increase by a forward four-year CAGR of +57.0%. Over the same period, Palantir&#39;s top line is predicted to grow by a slower CAGR of +34.5%, which is still pretty decent. In terms of profitability, Wall Street expects PLTR&#39;s normalized net profit margin to widen from 20.0% in 2021 to 26.8% by 2025. In comparison, SNOW&#39;s normalized net profit margin is forecasted to improve from 0.3% in fiscal 2022 (YE January 31 or approximating calendar year 2021) to 9.1% in FY 2026.</p><p>SNOW is a pioneer and leading player in the cloud data warehousing space, which explains its strong revenue growth. But Snowflake&#39;s profit margins are low on an absolute basis and inferior to that of PLTR as well. A key factor contributing to Snowflake&#39;s modest profitability is the company&#39;s dependence on third-party vendors such as Microsoft&#39;s (MSFT) Azure and Amazon&#39;s (AMZN) AWS. In my July 20, 2021,article for SNOW, I noted that the company&#39;s key suppliers of public cloud services are also the company&#39;s competitors and &#34;have a big impact on Snowflake&#39;s path to profitability.&#34; This is the most significant downside risk for SNOW.</p><p>On the other hand, a key concern for Palantir has been its reliance on government organizations. This implies that the company&#39;s revenue can be negatively impacted when the government&#39;s budget shrinks. But there have been encouraging signs with respect to client (commercial customers versus government clients) diversification in recent quarters. PTLR&#39;s commercial segment has been rapidly growing in recent quarters, as its commercial revenue growth went from +28% YOY and +37% YOY in Q2 2021 and Q3 2021, respectively, to +47% YOY in Q4 2021.</p><p>In comparison, Palantir&#39;s government revenue increased by a slower +26% YOY in the fourth quarter of last year. Also, as I mentioned in an earlier section of my article, Palantir has invested significantly in commercial sales headcount so as to further support the growth of the commercial segment.</p><p>In a nutshell, both companies&#39; long-term outlooks are decent. But PLTR has struck a better balance between top-line growth and profitability compared with SNOW, as evidenced by the consensus financial forecasts.</p><p>Is SNOW Or PLTR Stock A Better Buy?</p><p>PLTR stock is a better buy. Palantir boasts superior profit margins, and Snowflake is growing its top line at a much faster pace. But the gap in valuations between the two is huge; PLTR and SNOW are valued by the market at consensus forward next twelve months&#39; Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiples of 11.9 times and 30.7 times, respectively, according to<i>S&amp;P Capital IQ</i>. Taking into account the difference in the two companies&#39; valuations and future financial forecasts, I view Palantir as the more appealing investment candidate of the two.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Vs. Snowflake Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-09 10:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies' forward-looking guidance disappointed the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500463-palantir-vs-snowflake-stock-better-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179777825","content_text":"SummaryPalantir's and Snowflake's shares performed badly in 2022 year-to-date, as technology stocks fell out of favor with investors and both companies' forward-looking guidance disappointed the market.The long-term outlook for both SNOW and PLTR is good, considering the growth in new data creation and the expected revenue increase and profit margin expansion for the two companies.Palantir is the more attractive Buy of the two stocks, taking into account both valuations and key risk factors.Elevator PitchPalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is a better buy compared with Snowflake Inc. (SNOW). I prefer PLTR over SNOW because the former has maintained a good balance between revenue growth and profit margins. Palantir is expected to grow its top line by more than +30% every year going forward, while still delivering normalized net profit margins of above +20% in the future. In comparison, Snowflake's top line growth expectations are better, but it is relatively less profitable. More importantly, Palantir is much cheaper than Snowflake based on the forward Enterprise Value-to-Revenue metric.How Are SNOW And PLTR's Stock Performance?The year-to-date stock price performance of SNOW and PLTR have been poor on both an absolute and relative basis.Snowflake's And Palantir's 2022 Year-To-Date Share Price PerformanceSeeking AlphaThe shares of Palantir and Snowflake were down by -29.5% and -37.4%, respectively, so far this year. During the same period, the S&P 500 declined by a relatively modest -5.2%. Both SNOW and PLTR saw their shares fall the most around mid-March 2022. March 11, 2022, Seeking Alpha Newsarticlehighlighted that \"Snowflake shares fell sharply\" on the day alongside \"several other cloud-related stocks, as investors continued to shun technology stocks.\"Apart from weak investor sentiment, which has hurt the share price performance of technology stocks in general, there are also company-specific headwinds relating to Snowflake and Palantir, which I detail in the next section.SNOW And PLTR Stock Key MetricsBoth SNOW's and PLTR's forward-looking guidance disappointed the market. This was a key factor that led to the sell-down in their shares in 2022 year-to-date.Starting with Palantir, the company released the company's Q4 2021 financial results in a media release issued on February 17, 2022, before the market opened. PLTR's shares subsequently fell by -16% to close at $11.77 on the day of the earnings release. Palantir has yet to fully recover from its post-results announcement correction, as its last closing share price of $12.84 as of April 7, 2022, was still -8% below its pre-results stock price of $13.97 (closing price on February 16th).PLTR's top line expanded by +34% YOY to $433 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. This was+4%above what the market had expected. The company's robust revenue growth was driven by a +71% YOY increase in the number of customers, from 139 as of December 31, 2020, to 237 as of year-end 2021, as per its recent quarterly results presentation. Palantir grew its client base much faster than what Wall Street was expecting; the sell-side's consensus 2021 year-end estimate was 219 clients, according toS&P Capital IQ.However, Palantir's non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share contracted from $0.03 in Q4 2020 to $0.02 in Q4 2021. More significantly, PLTR's fourth quarter bottom line was approximately-44%below the market consensus EPS forecast. Palantir's total adjusted costs (excluding stock-based compensation) rose by +42% YOY to $309 million in the most recent quarter. This was largely attributable to a substantial jump in commercial sales headcount, from 12 as of end-2020 to 80 as of December 31, 2021, as indicated in PLTR's Q4 2021 results presentation.Looking forward, PLTR's revenue guidance was encouraging. As per its Q4 2021 earnings press release, Palantir guided for Q1 2022 revenue of $443 million (implying +30% YOY top line expansion) and \"annual revenue growth of 30% or greater through 2025.\"However, Palantir's near-term profitability guidance didn't meet market expectations. The company expects to achieve a non-GAAP adjusted operating profit margin of 23% in the first quarter of this year, which is much lower than Wall Street's consensus Q1 2022 operating margin estimate of 28%, as perS&P Capital IQ. At the Morgan Stanley(MS)Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 9, 2022, PLTR explained that \"the investments in the product\" in 2021 \"drove more improvement faster than we actually thought they might,\" and the company is \"giving ourselves a little space there to invest as aggressively as possible.\"Moving on to Snowflake, its Q4 2021 revenue of $360 million beat the sell-side consensus by+3%, and this represented a +102% YOY growth. But SNOW's shares still dropped by -15%, from a $264.69 close on March 2, 2022, to $224.02 on March 3, 2022 (post-earnings release). In the next one month or so, Snowflake's stock price declined further, closing at $213.88 as of April 7, 2022.SNOW's shares performed poorly because investors were unsatisfied with the company's fiscal 2023 (YE January 31) revenue growth guidance. Based on the midpoint of Snowflake's management, the company expected its revenue to increase by +66% in FY 2023. This implied a substantial slowdown in SNOW's top line expansion, as the company's sales grew by +106% in fiscal 2022.Snowflake attributed the weaker-than-expected revenue growth guidance for FY 2023 to platform performance improvements, which will provide more value to its clients. SNOW acknowledged at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference on March 8, 2022, that \"every performance improvement we do, we may have a revenue hit,\" but it stressed that \"those customers are consuming more\" in around half a year's time.In the subsequent two sections of the article, I will touch on the similarities and the differences between Palantir and Snowflake.Do Snowflake And Palantir Share The Same Market?Snowflake and Palantir do share the same market to a large extent.A December 2020research report published by Harris Williams classified both PLTR and SNOW as infrastructure software companies. More specifically, the investment bank placed these two companies in the \"data\" sub-segment of the infrastructure software sector alongside other listed companies like Splunk (SPLK) and Alteryx (AYX), among others.Harris Williams'Definition Of The Data Sub-Segment Of The Infrastructure Software SectorHarris WilliamsIn a blog post published on November 11, 2020, Palantir describes itself as a \"software company\" which builds \"digital infrastructure for data-driven operations.\" This provides support for Harris Williams' categorization of PLTR as an infrastructure company that belongs in the data sub-category.In summary, both companies operate in the infrastructure software market. This is also where the similarities between PLTR and SNOW end, as I highlight in the next section.How Do Snowflake And Palantir Differ?Referring to PLTR's November 2020 blog post (which I referred to in the preceding section) again, Palantir mentioned that it plays the role of \"data processor.\" PLTR emphasized that its platforms \"allow organizations to better manage\" data \"by bringing the right data to the people\" and enabling \"them to take data-driven decisions\" and \"conduct sophisticated analytic.\"In contrast, Snowflake's cloud data platform, known as Data Cloud, is mainly focused on data warehousing and data sharing; and it partners with other companies to offer solutions such as data analytics to its clients, as per the chart below.SNOW's Data Cloud Platform And Partnerships With Other Data Analytics CompaniesSnowflakeI touch on the two companies' growth prospects in the long run in the next section.What Are Snowflake And Palantir's Long-Term Outlooks?Both Snowflake and Palantir have long growth runways.Interactive Data Trends (IDC) has forecast that new data created will expand at a CAGR of +23%, from 64.1ZB in 2020 to 175ZB in 2025, according to January 31, 2022, article published in CDO Trends. As more data gets created, it is natural that this will boost demand for data warehousing, sharing, processing, and analytics going forward. This will be positive for both PLTR and SNOW.PLTR and SNOW are expected to deliver robust top-line growth and profit margin expansion over the next few years. Snowflake will grow its revenue at a faster pace compared with Palantir, but the former's profitability will still be inferior to that of the latter.According to consensus sell-side financial estimates sourced fromS&P Capital IQ, Snowflake's sales are forecasted to increase by a forward four-year CAGR of +57.0%. Over the same period, Palantir's top line is predicted to grow by a slower CAGR of +34.5%, which is still pretty decent. In terms of profitability, Wall Street expects PLTR's normalized net profit margin to widen from 20.0% in 2021 to 26.8% by 2025. In comparison, SNOW's normalized net profit margin is forecasted to improve from 0.3% in fiscal 2022 (YE January 31 or approximating calendar year 2021) to 9.1% in FY 2026.SNOW is a pioneer and leading player in the cloud data warehousing space, which explains its strong revenue growth. But Snowflake's profit margins are low on an absolute basis and inferior to that of PLTR as well. A key factor contributing to Snowflake's modest profitability is the company's dependence on third-party vendors such as Microsoft's (MSFT) Azure and Amazon's (AMZN) AWS. In my July 20, 2021,article for SNOW, I noted that the company's key suppliers of public cloud services are also the company's competitors and \"have a big impact on Snowflake's path to profitability.\" This is the most significant downside risk for SNOW.On the other hand, a key concern for Palantir has been its reliance on government organizations. This implies that the company's revenue can be negatively impacted when the government's budget shrinks. But there have been encouraging signs with respect to client (commercial customers versus government clients) diversification in recent quarters. PTLR's commercial segment has been rapidly growing in recent quarters, as its commercial revenue growth went from +28% YOY and +37% YOY in Q2 2021 and Q3 2021, respectively, to +47% YOY in Q4 2021.In comparison, Palantir's government revenue increased by a slower +26% YOY in the fourth quarter of last year. Also, as I mentioned in an earlier section of my article, Palantir has invested significantly in commercial sales headcount so as to further support the growth of the commercial segment.In a nutshell, both companies' long-term outlooks are decent. But PLTR has struck a better balance between top-line growth and profitability compared with SNOW, as evidenced by the consensus financial forecasts.Is SNOW Or PLTR Stock A Better Buy?PLTR stock is a better buy. Palantir boasts superior profit margins, and Snowflake is growing its top line at a much faster pace. But the gap in valuations between the two is huge; PLTR and SNOW are valued by the market at consensus forward next twelve months' Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiples of 11.9 times and 30.7 times, respectively, according toS&P Capital IQ. Taking into account the difference in the two companies' valuations and future financial forecasts, I view Palantir as the more appealing investment candidate of the two.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016090755,"gmtCreate":1649111540919,"gmtModify":1676534450692,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"[Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"[Facepalm]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016090755","repostId":"1145916651","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145916651","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1649079444,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1145916651?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-04 21:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks Stock Dipped 4% After New CEO Schultz Suspended Stock Buyback Plan","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145916651","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Starbucks stock dipped 4% after new ceo Schultz suspends stock buyback plan.Howard Schultz suspended","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Starbucks stock dipped 4% after new ceo Schultz suspends stock buyback plan.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f353c79ab968bb991e435fd98a8a6ce\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"841\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Howard Schultz suspended Starbucks’s stock buyback program after he returned to his role as the company’s interim CEO on Monday.</p><p>&#34;Starting immediately, we are suspending our share repurchasing program,&#34; Schultz said in an open letter published on Monday.</p><p>&#34;This decision will allow us to invest more into our people and our stores — the only way to create long-term value for all stakeholders.&#34;</p><p>Schultz’s return marks his third spell as Starbucks’s CEO as the world’s largest coffeehouse chain continues the search for its permanent Chief Executive. The company said it will find a new CEO by the fall.</p><p>However, the past several months have been challenging for Starbucks after multiple stores unionized against the company for the first time ever since its founding in 1971.</p><p>The move comes just a few weeks after Starbucks brought back its share buyback program, saying it plans to return $20 billion to its shareholders over the following three fiscal years.</p><p>Some think the decision to suspend the program was made to support Starbucks’s management, while others, including Bernie Sanders, slammed the company after the announcement.</p><p>&#34;If Starbucks can afford to spend $20 billion on stock buybacks and dividends ... it can afford a unionized workforce,” said Sanders.</p><p>The unionization wave at Starbucks emerged in December 2021 in New York after two workers voted to unionize as Starbucks Workers United.</p><p>The union is yet to present official requirements to the company’s management, though <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the workers said he hopes it will secure a $25 minimum wage for baristas, in addition to company-provided benefits such as mental health care plans.</p><p>The wave spread quickly after that and now more than 100 Starbucks locations across the U.S. have joined the union.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks Stock Dipped 4% After New CEO Schultz Suspended Stock Buyback Plan</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks Stock Dipped 4% After New CEO Schultz Suspended Stock Buyback Plan\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-04-04 21:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Starbucks stock dipped 4% after new ceo Schultz suspends stock buyback plan.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f353c79ab968bb991e435fd98a8a6ce\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"841\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>Howard Schultz suspended Starbucks’s stock buyback program after he returned to his role as the company’s interim CEO on Monday.</p><p>&#34;Starting immediately, we are suspending our share repurchasing program,&#34; Schultz said in an open letter published on Monday.</p><p>&#34;This decision will allow us to invest more into our people and our stores — the only way to create long-term value for all stakeholders.&#34;</p><p>Schultz’s return marks his third spell as Starbucks’s CEO as the world’s largest coffeehouse chain continues the search for its permanent Chief Executive. The company said it will find a new CEO by the fall.</p><p>However, the past several months have been challenging for Starbucks after multiple stores unionized against the company for the first time ever since its founding in 1971.</p><p>The move comes just a few weeks after Starbucks brought back its share buyback program, saying it plans to return $20 billion to its shareholders over the following three fiscal years.</p><p>Some think the decision to suspend the program was made to support Starbucks’s management, while others, including Bernie Sanders, slammed the company after the announcement.</p><p>&#34;If Starbucks can afford to spend $20 billion on stock buybacks and dividends ... it can afford a unionized workforce,” said Sanders.</p><p>The unionization wave at Starbucks emerged in December 2021 in New York after two workers voted to unionize as Starbucks Workers United.</p><p>The union is yet to present official requirements to the company’s management, though <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the workers said he hopes it will secure a $25 minimum wage for baristas, in addition to company-provided benefits such as mental health care plans.</p><p>The wave spread quickly after that and now more than 100 Starbucks locations across the U.S. have joined the union.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145916651","content_text":"Starbucks stock dipped 4% after new ceo Schultz suspends stock buyback plan.Howard Schultz suspended Starbucks’s stock buyback program after he returned to his role as the company’s interim CEO on Monday.\"Starting immediately, we are suspending our share repurchasing program,\" Schultz said in an open letter published on Monday.\"This decision will allow us to invest more into our people and our stores — the only way to create long-term value for all stakeholders.\"Schultz’s return marks his third spell as Starbucks’s CEO as the world’s largest coffeehouse chain continues the search for its permanent Chief Executive. The company said it will find a new CEO by the fall.However, the past several months have been challenging for Starbucks after multiple stores unionized against the company for the first time ever since its founding in 1971.The move comes just a few weeks after Starbucks brought back its share buyback program, saying it plans to return $20 billion to its shareholders over the following three fiscal years.Some think the decision to suspend the program was made to support Starbucks’s management, while others, including Bernie Sanders, slammed the company after the announcement.\"If Starbucks can afford to spend $20 billion on stock buybacks and dividends ... it can afford a unionized workforce,” said Sanders.The unionization wave at Starbucks emerged in December 2021 in New York after two workers voted to unionize as Starbucks Workers United.The union is yet to present official requirements to the company’s management, though one of the workers said he hopes it will secure a $25 minimum wage for baristas, in addition to company-provided benefits such as mental health care plans.The wave spread quickly after that and now more than 100 Starbucks locations across the U.S. have joined the union.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":27,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9016090354,"gmtCreate":1649111490070,"gmtModify":1676534450683,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market penetration still weak.","listText":"Market penetration still weak.","text":"Market penetration still weak.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9016090354","repostId":"2224816375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2224816375","pubTimestamp":1649084638,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2224816375?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-04-04 23:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't Let This 1 Decision Sour You on Sea Limited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2224816375","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Robust execution and a large market opportunity position Sea for long-term success.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The past six months have been a turbulent ride for investors in <b>Sea Limited</b>, a mobile gaming and e-commerce company -- shares of Sea are down over 60% from the all-time high recorded in Nov. 2021. And to add to investor worries, the company just announced it is shutting down its e-commerce operation in India.</p><p>These recent headwinds may worry some investors enough to stay away from the stock, but for those with patience, Sea presents a great opportunity.</p><p><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F672698%2Fwoman-shipping-products-ecommerce-sea.jpg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Getty Images.</p><h2>Is international expansion hitting a roadblock?</h2><p>Sea has shrewdly established the key pillars of its business -- Garena, Shopee, and Sea Money -- to take advantage of three global megatrends: gaming, e-commerce, and digital financial services, respectively. The company established its roots in Southeast Asia and quickly emerged into a global player, extending its presence into South America and Europe.</p><p>Its global expansion seemed to be going well, but on March 6, Sea announced that it was closing its Shopee business in France, which was a surprise for investors but largely viewed as a mere blip in the long-term plan. The news that really raised investors&#39; eyebrows came on March 28 when Sea announced it is pulling the curtains on its e-commerce operations in India.</p><p>Why would Sea exit potentially <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the largest markets in the world and derail its growth prospects? In the backdrop of its recent stock performance -- and the growing uncertainty around the economic environment with rising inflation and a major war -- many investors may be losing faith in the company.</p><h2>Digging deeper may offer some clues</h2><p>The seeds of Sea&#39;s exit from India may have been sown around Feb. 2022. The Indian government, citing national security and user data privacy concerns, banned 54 Chinese mobile apps. This ban included <i>Free Fire</i>, Garena&#39;s wildly popular battle royale mobile game. The immediate question from many familiar with Sea was: Why was <i>Free Fire</i> banned, when Sea is a Singaporean company, not a Chinese one.</p><p>One likely reason is that <b>Tencent Holdings</b>, the Chinese entertainment giant, has an 18.7% stake in Sea. That relationship likely raised enough red flags for the Indian government. It is interesting to note regulators permitted <i>Free Fire Max</i>, the premium version of <i>Free Fire</i>, to continue operations in India.</p><p>So how does the above event lead to Sea&#39;s India exit for Shopee? <i>Free Fire</i> is at the center of Sea&#39;s playbook of international expansion -- the company attracts a large user base with its engrossing video game, learns about users&#39; online habits, and creates opportunities to promote its e-commerce and digital payment services. Additionally, Garena designed <i>Free Fire</i> to run flawlessly even on low-end smartphones, ensuring the game can reach the majority of the population in developing countries.</p><p><i>Free Fire Max</i> doesn&#39;t have the same reach as it requires mobile phones with higher-end configurations. Not having <i>Free Fire</i> to lay the foundation in India threw a wrench in Sea&#39;s proven formula for expansion.</p><p>Finally, no one knows how the political situation between India and China may unfold. India may not ban Shopee today, but that doesn&#39;t mean it won&#39;t do so in the future. For Shopee to succeed in this highly competitive market, it would need to invest significantly, and the risk underlying that investment is simply too high. All factors considered, Sea&#39;s move to shutter its e-commerce operation in India looks like a smart and proactive business decision.</p><h2>Robust execution and long runway bode well</h2><p>Sea&#39;s founder and CEO Forrest Li has led the company brilliantly. Gamers now enjoy <i>Free Fire</i> in over 130 countries as Shopee launched in four countries in Latin America, three countries in Europe, and in China -- all in the past two and a half years. <i>Free Fire</i> has been the highest-grossing mobile app for 10 consecutive quarters in Southeast Asia and Latin America, according to data.ai. Sea&#39;s total revenue grew a whopping 128% in 2021 to reach $10 billion. Gross profits for the same period increased 189% to $3.9 billion.</p><p>The company is investing heavily to expand into new markets, and as a result, net losses also grew 26% during the year to $2.0 billion. However, Li believes that by 2025, the cash generated by Shopee and Sea Money, the primary beneficiaries of Sea&#39;s investments, collectively will enable these two businesses to substantially self-fund their own long-term growth.</p><p>The global opportunity for Sea remains large. Southeast Asia, Sea&#39;s core market, is one of the world&#39;s fastest-growing regions with a population rising over 50% faster than the United States&#39; and a GDP increasing more than twice as quickly. An expanding middle-class, rising average household incomes, and rapidly spreading cellphone and internet usage are creating more shoppers in the seven Southeast Asian countries where Sea operates.</p><p>The company is also gaining major traction in Brazil, the sixth-largest country by population. Shopee Brazil recorded more than 140 million orders in the fourth quarter, growing at close to 400% year over year. The company is also making headways in other South American countries.</p><p>Despite shutting down its e-commerce operation in India, Sea is projecting Shopee&#39;s revenue to grow 76% in 2022, while Sea Money grows 155%. These are very impressive numbers that underscore Sea&#39;s global scale and its ability to overcome hurdles in its growth trajectory.</p><h2>Now may be a good time to board the ship</h2><p>Management is forecasting a decline in bookings for Garena this year, which is understandable as the company faces the near-term headwinds of reopening economies across the world and <i>Free Fire</i>&#39;s ban in India. But Li remains aspirational and focused on the long-term prospects of the company.</p><p>Responding to the over 65% drop in the company&#39;s share price, Li assured employees in an email: &#34;Do not fear: we are in a strong position internally, and we are clear on our next steps. This is short-term pain that we have to endure to truly <i>maximise our long-term potential</i>.&#34; Lee went on to say: &#34;The scale of our ambition remains unchanged: to make a long-lasting mark in history.&#34;</p><p>Sea has successfully entered multiple international markets. The company is carefully assessing its opportunity in each region and making shrewd decisions to either expand or exit those markets. Sea&#39;s strategy of <i>failing fast</i> leads to efficient capital allocation for the company and bodes well for its future. It is still executing well, and despite its exit from India has a long runway in front of it.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a51ad9bb122e14425e4fa9b19c3f402\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data by YCharts.</p><p>As a result of the sell-off, shares are trading at a three-year low price-to-sales valuation of 6.6 as of this writing. Taking a small position in Sea should serve patient investors with a long-term focus very well.</p></body></html>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't Let This 1 Decision Sour You on Sea Limited</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't Let This 1 Decision Sour You on Sea Limited\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-04 23:03 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/03/dont-let-this-1-decision-sour-you-on-sea-limited/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The past six months have been a turbulent ride for investors in Sea Limited, a mobile gaming and e-commerce company -- shares of Sea are down over 60% from the all-time high recorded in Nov. 2021. And...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/03/dont-let-this-1-decision-sour-you-on-sea-limited/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/03/dont-let-this-1-decision-sour-you-on-sea-limited/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2224816375","content_text":"The past six months have been a turbulent ride for investors in Sea Limited, a mobile gaming and e-commerce company -- shares of Sea are down over 60% from the all-time high recorded in Nov. 2021. And to add to investor worries, the company just announced it is shutting down its e-commerce operation in India.These recent headwinds may worry some investors enough to stay away from the stock, but for those with patience, Sea presents a great opportunity.Image source: Getty Images.Is international expansion hitting a roadblock?Sea has shrewdly established the key pillars of its business -- Garena, Shopee, and Sea Money -- to take advantage of three global megatrends: gaming, e-commerce, and digital financial services, respectively. The company established its roots in Southeast Asia and quickly emerged into a global player, extending its presence into South America and Europe.Its global expansion seemed to be going well, but on March 6, Sea announced that it was closing its Shopee business in France, which was a surprise for investors but largely viewed as a mere blip in the long-term plan. The news that really raised investors' eyebrows came on March 28 when Sea announced it is pulling the curtains on its e-commerce operations in India.Why would Sea exit potentially one of the largest markets in the world and derail its growth prospects? In the backdrop of its recent stock performance -- and the growing uncertainty around the economic environment with rising inflation and a major war -- many investors may be losing faith in the company.Digging deeper may offer some cluesThe seeds of Sea's exit from India may have been sown around Feb. 2022. The Indian government, citing national security and user data privacy concerns, banned 54 Chinese mobile apps. This ban included Free Fire, Garena's wildly popular battle royale mobile game. The immediate question from many familiar with Sea was: Why was Free Fire banned, when Sea is a Singaporean company, not a Chinese one.One likely reason is that Tencent Holdings, the Chinese entertainment giant, has an 18.7% stake in Sea. That relationship likely raised enough red flags for the Indian government. It is interesting to note regulators permitted Free Fire Max, the premium version of Free Fire, to continue operations in India.So how does the above event lead to Sea's India exit for Shopee? Free Fire is at the center of Sea's playbook of international expansion -- the company attracts a large user base with its engrossing video game, learns about users' online habits, and creates opportunities to promote its e-commerce and digital payment services. Additionally, Garena designed Free Fire to run flawlessly even on low-end smartphones, ensuring the game can reach the majority of the population in developing countries.Free Fire Max doesn't have the same reach as it requires mobile phones with higher-end configurations. Not having Free Fire to lay the foundation in India threw a wrench in Sea's proven formula for expansion.Finally, no one knows how the political situation between India and China may unfold. India may not ban Shopee today, but that doesn't mean it won't do so in the future. For Shopee to succeed in this highly competitive market, it would need to invest significantly, and the risk underlying that investment is simply too high. All factors considered, Sea's move to shutter its e-commerce operation in India looks like a smart and proactive business decision.Robust execution and long runway bode wellSea's founder and CEO Forrest Li has led the company brilliantly. Gamers now enjoy Free Fire in over 130 countries as Shopee launched in four countries in Latin America, three countries in Europe, and in China -- all in the past two and a half years. Free Fire has been the highest-grossing mobile app for 10 consecutive quarters in Southeast Asia and Latin America, according to data.ai. Sea's total revenue grew a whopping 128% in 2021 to reach $10 billion. Gross profits for the same period increased 189% to $3.9 billion.The company is investing heavily to expand into new markets, and as a result, net losses also grew 26% during the year to $2.0 billion. However, Li believes that by 2025, the cash generated by Shopee and Sea Money, the primary beneficiaries of Sea's investments, collectively will enable these two businesses to substantially self-fund their own long-term growth.The global opportunity for Sea remains large. Southeast Asia, Sea's core market, is one of the world's fastest-growing regions with a population rising over 50% faster than the United States' and a GDP increasing more than twice as quickly. An expanding middle-class, rising average household incomes, and rapidly spreading cellphone and internet usage are creating more shoppers in the seven Southeast Asian countries where Sea operates.The company is also gaining major traction in Brazil, the sixth-largest country by population. Shopee Brazil recorded more than 140 million orders in the fourth quarter, growing at close to 400% year over year. The company is also making headways in other South American countries.Despite shutting down its e-commerce operation in India, Sea is projecting Shopee's revenue to grow 76% in 2022, while Sea Money grows 155%. These are very impressive numbers that underscore Sea's global scale and its ability to overcome hurdles in its growth trajectory.Now may be a good time to board the shipManagement is forecasting a decline in bookings for Garena this year, which is understandable as the company faces the near-term headwinds of reopening economies across the world and Free Fire's ban in India. But Li remains aspirational and focused on the long-term prospects of the company.Responding to the over 65% drop in the company's share price, Li assured employees in an email: \"Do not fear: we are in a strong position internally, and we are clear on our next steps. This is short-term pain that we have to endure to truly maximise our long-term potential.\" Lee went on to say: \"The scale of our ambition remains unchanged: to make a long-lasting mark in history.\"Sea has successfully entered multiple international markets. The company is carefully assessing its opportunity in each region and making shrewd decisions to either expand or exit those markets. Sea's strategy of failing fast leads to efficient capital allocation for the company and bodes well for its future. It is still executing well, and despite its exit from India has a long runway in front of it.Data by YCharts.As a result of the sell-off, shares are trading at a three-year low price-to-sales valuation of 6.6 as of this writing. Taking a small position in Sea should serve patient investors with a long-term focus very well.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191040495698184,"gmtCreate":1687666478938,"gmtModify":1687666482925,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;","listText":"[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;[Sad]&nbsp;","text":"[Sad] [Sad] [Sad] [Sad] [Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/191040495698184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968006664,"gmtCreate":1669073926058,"gmtModify":1676538146632,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","listText":"[Doubt]&nbsp;","text":"[Doubt]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968006664","repostId":"2285072386","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9961892461,"gmtCreate":1668906872253,"gmtModify":1676538126085,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"[Happy]&nbsp;","text":"[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9961892461","repostId":"2284038371","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2284038371","pubTimestamp":1668918242,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2284038371?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-20 12:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Qualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2284038371","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement stand","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn&#39;t?!</p><p>Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market&#39;s crazy gyrations? I know I do.</p><p>Does the idea of being able to count on steadily growing income in all market, economic, inflation, and interest rate conditions, sound appealing? It does to me.</p><p>Well then blue-chip dividend investing might be just what you&#39;re looking for.</p><p>When you hear &#34;dividend investing&#34; you probably think of boring, mature, and stable businesses like Altria (MO), Verizon (VZ) or Pepsi (PEP).</p><p>And while those are indeed wonderful ways to earn generous, very safe, and steadily growing income today, if you want to maximize long-term retirement income there is no better way than combining high-yield and fast-growth.</p><p>Why? Let&#39;s consider the examples of two fast-growing dividend chip stocks, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).</p><p>Let&#39;s see what happens when we combine high-yield with fast-growth.</p><h4>Historical Total Returns Since 2011</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5abab739c65390aec9ecc4d8eb0e567b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"185\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Combining the world&#39;s best high-yield and growth exchange-traded funds (&#34;ETFs&#34;) with the growth and ultra-yield blue-chips created a far better performing portfolio over the last 11 years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2027ec3b24edf389edb7de640c5e8ef0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>But more importantly for income investors, it also delivered superior income over time.</p><h4>Income Growth Rich Retirement Dreams Are Made Of</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68784dfa5159ea8211a71a811b27e419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><h4>Cumulative Dividends Since 2012: Per $1,000 Initial Investment</h4><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>S&amp;P 500</b></td><td><b>SCHD</b></td><td><b>SCHD, QQQ, ENB, MO, NVDA, QCOM</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$471</td><td>$785</td><td>$1,177</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$359.54</b></td><td><b>$599.24</b></td><td><b>$898.47</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Income Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>9.0%</b></td><td><b>15.3%</b></td><td><b>27.9%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>0.47</td><td>0.79</td><td>1.18</td></tr><tr><td><b>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</b></td><td><b>0.36</b></td><td><b>0.60</b></td><td><b>0.90</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than S&amp;P</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>1.67</b></td><td><b>2.50</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Starting Yield</b></td><td><b>2.5%</b></td><td><b>3.2%</b></td><td><b>2.7%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>5.9%</td><td>13.3%</td><td>31.7%</td></tr><tr><td><b>2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></td><td><b>4.5%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>24.2%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>By combining yield and growth over the last 10 year income investors have enjoyed 28% annual income growth, 2X better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and 3X better than the S&amp;P 500 (SP500).</p><p>They&#39;ve gotten back 90% of their initial investment in inflation-adjusted dividends, and enjoyed 2.5X more income than the S&amp;P 500 and 50% more income than SCHD alone.</p><p>And for every $1 invested in 2011 they are now getting $.24 in annual inflation-adjusted dividends, and that&#39;s growing exponentially each year.</p><ul><li>SCHD investors are getting $0.1 in annual income per $1 investment</li><li>S&amp;P 500 investors $0.05.</li></ul><p>Ok, so that&#39;s fine for those with 10+ years to invest, but surely retirees should stick to high-yield only right? WRONG!</p><p>Unless you expect to drop dead in 10 years let&#39;s not forget that retirements last a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/872a8106a46bdef537bd2736d27566c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Hamilton Project</p><p>22% of U.S. men can expect to live to 90 and 34% of woman.</p><p>In other words, even if you&#39;re already retired chances are very good that you have a 10+ year, or even 30 to 40 year time horizon.</p><p>And that&#39;s where the power of fast dividend compounding really shines.</p><p>How powerful is hyper-dividend compounding over 35 years?</p><p><b>MO + LOW Cumulative Dividends Since 1985 Per $1,000 Initial Investment </b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Altria</b></td><td><b>Lowe&#39;s</b></td><td><b>Altria + Lowe&#39;s</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$282,584</td><td>$37,611</td><td>$286,519</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$100,563.70</b></td><td><b>$13,384.70</b></td><td><b>$101,964.06</b></td></tr><tr><td>Annualized Income Growth Rate</td><td>18.8%</td><td>18.2%</td><td>21.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>282.58</td><td>37.61</td><td>286.52</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>100.56</td><td>13.38</td><td>101.96</td></tr><tr><td>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than Altria</td><td>NA</td><td>0.13</td><td>1.01</td></tr><tr><td>Starting Yield</td><td>4.8%</td><td>1.4%</td><td>3.0%</td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>2774.0%</td><td>682.5%</td><td>4350.4%</td></tr><tr><td><i><b>Today&#39;s Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></i></td><td><i><b>987.2%</b></i></td><td><i><b>242.9%</b></i></td><td><i><b>1548.2%</b></i></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)</i></p><p>You can enjoy 100X your initial investment in inflation-adjusted income and achieve truly mind boggling income by combining ultra-yield with hyper-dividend growth.</p><p>And guess what? Combining yield + hyper-growth, even without dividends can be even more powerful.</p><p><b>MO + AMZN Cumulative Dividends Since 1998 Per $1,000 Initial Investment </b></p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>Metric</b></td><td><b>Altria</b></td><td><b>Altria + Amazon</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Dividends</td><td>$3,034.00</td><td>$101,408.00</td></tr><tr><td><b>Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends</b></td><td><b>$1,657.92</b></td><td><b>$55,414.21</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Annualized Income Growth Rate</b></td><td><b>3.31%</b></td><td><b>27.96%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Total Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>3.034</td><td>101.408</td></tr><tr><td>Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %</td><td>1.657923497</td><td>55.41420765</td></tr><tr><td><b>More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than Altria</b></td><td><b>NA</b></td><td><b>33.4</b></td></tr><tr><td><b>Starting Yield</b></td><td><b>3.80%</b></td><td><b>4.10%</b></td></tr><tr><td>Today&#39;s Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)</td><td>8.30%</td><td>1523.50%</td></tr><tr><td><b>2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)</b></td><td><b>4.54%</b></td><td><b>832.51%</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) MO&#39;s dividend growth is low because of the 2007 and 2008 spin-offs. </i></p><p>Had you bought both AMZN and MO back in 1997, reinvested dividends, and rebalanced annually, today you&#39;ve received 33X more inflation-adjusted income over the last 24 years.</p><p>28% annual income growth means a 208X higher inflation-adjusted yield on cost.</p><p>Income growth over time tends to track total returns, so you want to make sure that you&#39;re dividend portfolio is likely to generate strong returns. Not just to keep up with inflation (2.3% long-term according to the bond market).</p><p>You want your standard of living to keep rising in retirement, no matter how long you live.</p><p>And that&#39;s where growth stocks like QCOM and NVDA can help.</p><p>Several members have asked for an update on those chip titans and after carefully examining both companies most recent fundamentals I have come to a surprising conclusion.</p><p>At the moment, Nvidia is the far better chip dividend stock to buy, for anyone looking to maximize long-term income. Let me show you why.</p><h2>Qualcomm: A Wonderful World-Beater Facing A Slower Growth Future</h2><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67fe0662e4bfe81da07f04ec434355c1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>Chip makers are up 26% in the last month, though that&#39;s only after getting crushed in a ferocious bear market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79d69773b50a5e03a69596f13a83839f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Nvidia fell as much as 63% in this bear market (so far). That&#39;s its 3rd worst bear market in history.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d99f60aeb036e67477e9669c4db6f92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"208\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>QCOM has fallen as much as 37% in this bear market, also it&#39;s 3rd worst bear market.</p><blockquote>Smartphone Weakness Finally Catches Up to Qualcomm As Inventories Build</blockquote><blockquote>Qualcomm’s guidance includes an estimated negative impact of about $2 billion in revenue due to weaker demand, foreign exchange headwinds, and excess inventories.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>One year ago, chip makers were the darlings of Wall Street. The Pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a chip shortage, while record $30 trillion in global stimulus caused a boom in demand for physical goods. Many of which require computer chips.</p><p>Some in the industry were even talking about a permanent industry shift, from cyclical boom and bust cycles, to a world in which chip makers could deliver steady, tech utility like secular growth.</p><p>Well, scratch that idea. It turns out chips are still a cyclical industry and smartphone demand is falling rapidly as the global economy weakens.</p><ul><li><h3>Samsung’s profit drops by more than 30% on weakening memory chip demand</h3></li></ul><blockquote>Qualcomm said it expects its mobile-phone handset business to fall In &#34;a low double-digit percentage range&#34; this year from last year. The company had earlier forecast a &#34;mid-single-digit percentage decline&#34; from 2021.&#34; - Seeking Alpha</blockquote><p>As early as Q2 QCOM&#39;s sales were soaring 36% on the back of strong smartphone demand.</p><p>Now they are expected to decline and so are earnings.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce66de408aab5b717a5b2bb68b0810e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>After exploding higher during the pandemic, QCOM&#39;s earnings are expected to:</p><ul><li>fall 8% in 2023</li><li>grow 11% in 2024</li><li>2% EPS growth from 2022 to 2024.</li></ul><p>QCOM&#39;s licensing business, which generates incredible 73% operating margins, isn&#39;t expected to grow in the future, though its 263,708 patents are still expected to mint free cash flow for years to come.</p><p>At least in the short-term analysts growth outlooks have dimmed for QCOM which is now expected to grow around 8% over the long-term, after we get past the 2023 recession.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac98516ffd9c404ce1f26b009c14b7be\" tg-width=\"165\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bfc4e00ba39fff6f4d44310dcc87e53\" tg-width=\"161\" tg-height=\"222\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53aa912a1d243b464b584069d100822f\" tg-width=\"154\" tg-height=\"223\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5085ebb2648b58f1f0759749655f78d\" tg-width=\"151\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Is QCOM likely to actually grow at 8% over time? Which would make the total return outlook rather uninspiring?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.6%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.88</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHD\">Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</a></td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.81</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.4%</td><td>13.2</td><td>1.70</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.8</td><td>1.61</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.4%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.1%</b></td><td><b>4.8%</b></td><td><b>15.0</b></td><td><b>1.60</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)</i></p><p>If analysts are right, then QCOM might merely match the market going forward.</p><p>But I don&#39;t actually expect QCOM to grow at just 8% in the future, and here are two reasons why.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30bdacaec1f98fc2eb5d92a3eb153e11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"159\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investor presentation</p><p>QCOM&#39;s addressable market is expected to grow from $100 billion per year (43% market share) to $700 billion in the next decade. QCOM is diversifying into cloud computing, driverless cars, and the internet of things or IOT.</p><p>This makes me think that the recent decline in growth outlook is due to the recent cyclical downturn, which often happens with chip makers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9747d6d688ce9297cc0103ae347c27e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"453\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>However, in the short-term QCOM investors are going to have to be patient, because the recent face-ripping rally has reduced the total return potential for the next few years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befa76d7c9d62162913273291a116352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>QCOM has rallied 21% off its November 3rd lows, and combined with a weak global growth outlook for 2023, means that short-term growth prospects are rather weak.</p><p>But that doesn&#39;t mean that QCOM isn&#39;t a potentially attractive buy.</p><ul><li>fair value: $163.92</li><li>current price: $126.02</li><li><b>discount to fair value: 23%</b></li><li><b>DK rating: potentially strong buy.</b></li></ul><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d424fe27b124f6e474c19d42ac832ae\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>QCOM is trading at 11.4X consensus trough earnings, and just 9.3X cash-adjusted trough earnings.</p><p>That means it&#39;s pricing in approximately 1.6% CAGR long-term growth, far below the 7.8% analysts currently expect.</p><h4><b>Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Return Potential </b></h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9077fd745b5fe7442c68b30862a3eaa2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Which means that if QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical market-determined fair value it could deliver Buffett-like 19% annual returns over the next three years.</p><ul><li>about 2X the S&amp;P consensus</li></ul><h4><b>Qualcomm 2028 Consensus Return Potential</b></h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0558e4ce2c146ab3b7ce7239e041cd2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>Even with just 3.5% annual EPS growth expected through 2028, QCOM could more than double your money, delivering 14% annual returns, about 2X the S&amp;P consensus.</p><p>Or to put another way, if you buy QCOM today, you get an Ultra-SWAN quality dividend growth powerhouse, that could more than double your money as we wait to see if QCOM&#39;s growth outlook improves in the future.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3196bed203f1ac1f0e409a8c19f29a3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"94\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FActSet</p><p>QCOM has been paying a dividend for 19 consecutive years, and raised it every year. The dividend growth rate has been a stellar 20% annually and its delivered close to 14% annual returns.</p><ul><li>the current five year consensus return forecast.</li></ul><p>I think long-term QCOM should be able to continue delivering 13% to 14% long-term returns, which makes it worth buying today, or at least holding it if you already own it.</p><ul><li>13% to 14% long-term returns is better than SCHD, the S&amp;P, dividend aristocrats, and the Nasdaq.</li></ul><h4>Qualcomm Investment Decision Score</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37f29c106559f4ad320cb69a3c28da63\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p>QCOM might not be a table-pounding buy compared to the S&amp;P 500, but it&#39;s still a satisfactory one that&#39;s offering:</p><ul><li>superior and safer yield</li><li>a faster-growing dividend</li><li>better medium-term total returns</li><li>66% better risk-adjusted expected returns</li><li>30% higher income potential over the next five years than the S&amp;P</li></ul><h2>NVIDIA: A Chip Specialist Facing A Cyclical Downturn But Whose Hyper-Growth Outlook Remains Intact</h2><p>NVDA fell off a cliff when the Biden Administration announced export controls on chips to China.</p><p>Fortunately the company adapted quickly and has already announced new export control compliant chips.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9acc1f5a652b10b06cb686a4f3128c0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Ycharts</p><p>News like that, along with the overall &#34;risk on&#34; sentiment in stocks, has helped drive NVDA up 44% in recent weeks.</p><p>This isn&#39;t surprising given that NVDA is a very volatile stock, historically 2.2X more volatile than the S&amp;P 500.</p><h4>Nvidia Rolling Returns Since Feb 1999 IPO</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d3defbbc0997112ddbde7a6f2bca1a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"150\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Gut churning volatility cuts both ways, with 90% crashes followed by 751% one year rallies.</p><p>From bear market lows NVDA is capable of:</p><ul><li>140% annual returns for 3 years = 13.8X in 3 years</li><li>89% annual returns for five years = 24.1X in five years</li><li>81% annual returns for seven years = 64.9X in seven years</li><li>47% annual returns for 10 years = 92.4X in 10 years</li><li>34% annual returns for 15 years = 77.1X in 15 years.</li></ul><p>The question investors need answered today, is what does NVDA&#39;s long-term outlook like now that the U.S. and China are in an economic cold war?</p><blockquote>Nvidia&#39;s Data Center Business Drives the Firm&#39;s Wide Moat Rating</blockquote><blockquote>Nvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm&#39;s chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>NVDA might have started out focused on gaming PCs, but it&#39;s now at the forefront of some of the world&#39;s best secular growth trends.</p><ul><li>cloud computing</li><li>AI</li><li>driverless cars</li><li>automation.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc6801dafd36eaa41110bce2bee51efb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>Management estimates NVDA&#39;s total addressable market is $1 trillion per year (2.7% market share) and those markets are the backbone of the entire $100 trillion global economy.</p><blockquote>The acquisition of Mellanox has helped diversify Nvidia’s end-market exposure, and we suspect the firm will derive over half of revenue from the data center segment going forward, which should help mitigate some of the volatility Nvidia has faced in its gaming and cryptocurrency mining-related sales over the past few years.&#34; - Morningstar</blockquote><p>NVDA has been diversifying away from gaming for years, and Morningstar thinks they could soon get over 50% of sales from datacenters, a far more stable business.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d8a7f017af371ef6cc2091c3cce253\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Analysts are even more bullish on the datacenter business, expecting it to triple in the next five years.</p><ul><li>25% annual growth rate.</li></ul><p>By 2027 analysts think 73% of NVDA&#39;s sales will be coming from datacenters.</p><p>Why? Because datacenters are enterprise and big businesses don&#39;t mind spending millions on the best hardware if it saves them money in the long-term.</p><p>What kind of businesses are NVDA&#39;s datacenter customers?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19525a0bcbf34d91c2eab5c4b5987e45\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>investor presentation</p><p>NVDA&#39;s datacenter customers have deep pockets and are expected to help drive incredible long-term growth. How incredible?</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/117a0f71158d9a01f27455ae2f8895f5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"204\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>How about tripling earnings in five years, and 18% long-term earnings growth?</p><ul><li>20% to 78% CAGR growth over the last 20 years.</li></ul><p>Given NVDA&#39;s massive $1 trillion addressable market, and dominance in advanced GPUs (the &#34;super chips&#34; that drive the future) I consider 18% long-term growth a reasonable estimate from all 46 analysts who cover it.</p><p>What does that potentially mean for investors?</p><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td>Investment Strategy</td><td>Yield</td><td>LT Consensus Growth</td><td>LT Consensus Total Return Potential</td><td>Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</td><td>Long-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Returns</td><td>Years To Double Your Inflation &amp; Risk-Adjusted Wealth</td><td><p>10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected Return</p></td></tr><tr><td><b>Nvidia</b></td><td><b>0.1%</b></td><td><b>17.7%</b></td><td><b>17.8%</b></td><td><b>12.5%</b></td><td><b>10.1%</b></td><td><b>7.1</b></td><td><b>2.62</b></td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq</td><td>0.8%</td><td>11.8%</td><td>12.6%</td><td>8.8%</td><td>6.5%</td><td>11.0</td><td>1.88</td></tr><tr><td>Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF</td><td>3.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>12.1%</td><td>8.4%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>11.8</td><td>1.81</td></tr><tr><td>Dividend Aristocrats</td><td>2.6%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>11.1%</td><td>7.8%</td><td>5.4%</td><td>13.2</td><td>1.70</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>1.8%</td><td>8.5%</td><td>10.3%</td><td>7.2%</td><td>4.9%</td><td>14.8</td><td>1.61</td></tr><tr><td><b>Qualcomm</b></td><td><b>2.4%</b></td><td><b>7.8%</b></td><td><b>10.2%</b></td><td><b>7.1%</b></td><td><b>4.8%</b></td><td><b>15.0</b></td><td><b>1.60</b></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)</i></p><p>Analysts expect Buffett-like 18% long-term returns from NVDA, not much bellow its 22% CAGR rolling 15-year returns since 1999.</p><p>In other words:</p><ul><li>QCOM is struggling with several slow years of growth due to cyclical headwinds</li><li>NVDA&#39;s growth engine is firing on all cylinders thanks to its dominance of super chip GPUs driving the future of the world economy</li></ul><p>OK, so NVDA is the best chip stock right? And clearly better than QCOM? Not necessarily.</p><h2>The Biggest Problem Income Investors Will Have With Nvidia</h2><p>What is there to not love about NVDA? Is it the balance sheet?</p><ul><li>A stable credit rating from S&amp;P = 0.66% 30-year bankruptcy risk</li><li>$11 billion in net cash on the balance sheet</li><li>$6.6 billion in annual free cash flow.</li></ul><p>No, NVDA&#39;s balanced sheet is a fortress and it&#39;s a free cash flow minting machine.</p><p>No, the biggest issue about NVDA is how stingy management is with the dividend.</p><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaab450b786d3fc8033addc276f49980\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FAST Graphs, FactSet</p><p>NVDA&#39;s overall dividend growth rate is expectational, 27% CAGR since it began paying on in 2013. And its 52% CAGR annual total returns over that time period put even Amazon (AMZN) to shame.</p><p>But note how the dividend growth rate began slowing in 2018 and it hasn&#39;t raised its dividend for two years. The free cash flow (&#34;FCF&#34;) payout ratio has fallen to 5%, 1/10th the credit rating safety guideline for this industry.</p><p>NVDA&#39;s dividend yield is 0.1% and even if management were to take the payout ratio to the 50% safety guideline it would be just 1%, far below other world-beater blue-chip dividend chip stocks.</p><ul><li>Broadcom (AVGO): 3.2%</li><li>Texas Instruments (TXN): 2.8%</li><li>Qualcomm: 2.4%.</li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ed8059fb756ebb0208f4a9255da8fcf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>FactSet Research Terminal</p><p>Value investors might also be uncomfortable with a company trading at 38X forward earnings.</p><ul><li>cash-adjusted P/E is 29X</li></ul><p>What is NVDA&#39;s fair value?</p><ul><li>NVDA fair value: $136.39</li><li>current price: $160.55</li><li>discount to fair value: -18%</li><li>DK rating: hold.</li></ul><p>NVDA&#39;s 45% rally in recent weeks meant the margin of safety went from 21% to -18%.</p><p>Today NVDA is at a premium price that means a lot of downside risk for one of the most volatile world-beater tech blue-chips in the world.</p><p>If the 2023 recession causes earnings estimates to come down in the coming quarters? Then NVDA could suffer a sharp decline like these.</p><h4>Nvidia In The 2022 Bear Market</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fb0d9fdc2e84efd099a075dc786d759\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>In the past year alone NVDA has suffered double-digit monthly declines no less than six times, including 32% crash in April.</p><h4>Nvidia In The Pandemic</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a5e4c84cd9a33c4eb1344645e4d9e02\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"113\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Nvidia held up well in the Pandemic, as did most tech stocks.</p><ul><li>The Nasdaq 100 fell just 12% while the S&amp;P fell 34%.</li></ul><p>But NVDA&#39;s crashes are the stuff of legend, and anyone owning it should be prepared for truly gut-wrenching volatility in the future. What kind of volatility?</p><h4>Nvidia In The 2018 Bear Market</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35a727821abe6d4024c68205c4a25cc4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"149\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Imagine a stock you own falls 25% in a month, then 22% the next month, and then another 18% the following month.</p><p>That&#39;s what happened in the 2018 bear market.</p><ul><li>53% decline in 3 months</li><li>S&amp;P fell 21%.</li></ul><p>And that was just the 4th largest bear market in NVDA&#39;s history.</p><ul><li>it&#39;s suffered six 40+% crashes in the last 23 years</li><li>averaging once every four years.</li></ul><h4>Nvidia In The 2011 Bear Market</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2451a52de33e3efbd62756ec8aae19d2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Compared to some its crashes, the 2011 bear market decline of 38% was relatively tame.</p><h4>Nvidia In The Great Recession</h4><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be365a32a8f24d156b47fe1ce741ea2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>NVDA dell 80% during the Great Recession, including falling almost 40% in July 2008. It fell 54% from June to July of 2008, a level of volatility that only those who owned it in a diversified portfolio could stomach.</p><h4>Nvidia Pre-Tech Crash</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85abd332be6f5f0eee3a6ed3ed98348\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p>Even before the tech crash of 2000 to 2002, NVDA was capable of falling 32% in a single month.</p><h4>Nvidia During The Tech Crash</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f482c390124c7ab2212d687c4ad53ccf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34faa537584a4beab097d4a2e14c2f34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Portfolio Visualizer Premium</p><p></p><p>If you think a 45% one month rally means NVDA is out of the woods, you&#39;re wrong.</p><p>During the Tech Crash NVDA had nine 20+% single month rallies.</p><p>That includes nearly tripling from October 2001 to December 2001.</p><p>NVDA then proceeded to fall nine straight months, a total of 87%, including getting cut in half in June 2002.</p><ul><li>after already falling 50% in the previous five months</li><li>and then it fell another 50% before bottoming in September of 2022.</li></ul><p>So what if you buy NVDA today? At a 17% historical premium? Will you regret it? That depends on your time horizon. Over the next few months? Probably you&#39;re in for a wild wide...to the downside.</p><ul><li>2023 recession is expected to cause the market to bottom at 3,000 to 3,400 between Q1 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024.</li></ul><p>But in the medium-term and long-term?</p><h4>Nvidia 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1c252be18bc5c5c6ab04785c41297a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>NVDA&#39;s P/E peaked in the Pandemic bubble at 82X, compared to a historical market-determined fair value of 32.</p><p>It&#39;s 60% collapse brought it back to historical fair value and then it rallied 45% and became 18% overvalued. Despite strong growth in 2024 and 2025, it&#39;s consensus return potential is effectively zero.</p><h4>NVIDIA 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33eed1944ddaef0cf8144129739a81a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)</p><p>NVDA&#39;s growth rate is so strong that it might almost double even from today&#39;s 18% historical premium.</p><ul><li>approximately 2X the S&amp;P consensus.</li></ul><p>But if those estimates come down then NVDA investors could be in for a rough and highly volatile few years.</p><h4>Nvidia Investment Decision Score</h4><p></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9bd4292ef2e7e5731cd633b4998777\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"248\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>DK</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50cbbe0e07e810009a9c363f88f22c6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Dividend Kings Automated Investment Decision Tool</p><p>NVDA today, even at an 18% premium, is a superior choice compared to the S&amp;P 500.</p><ul><li>higher risk-adjusted expected return than the S&amp;P over the next five years</li><li>80% higher long-term annual return potential</li></ul><h2>Bottom Line: Nvidia Is The Far Better Growth Stock But Qualcomm Is The Far Better Buy Today</h2><p>When it comes to maximizing safe long-term income, combining hyper-growth with high-yield is the single best strategy.</p><p>And that&#39;s why blue-chip income investors love companies like QCOM and NVDA, which can turbocharge their long-term income growth rates.</p><ul><li>SCHD delivered 15% annual income growth over the last decade</li><li>SCHD, QQQ, MO, ENB, QCOM, and NVDA delivered 28% CAGR</li><li>and 50% more overall inflation-adjusted income.</li></ul><p>And when it comes to the issue of which chip titan is the better growth stock, it looks like NVDA is the hands down winner.</p><ul><li>a 10X bigger addressable market today (though QCOM is planning to catch up 70% of the way within a decade)</li><li>2x the median growth consensus</li><li>historically 7% higher annual returns.</li></ul><p>So you might think that NVDA is the hands down winner here. But remember that valuation matters, and it matters a lot.</p><ul><li>QCOM is 20% historically undervalued</li><li>NVDA is almost 20% historically overvalued.</li></ul><p>Given that NVDA is one of the most volatile companies on earth, capable of rising or falling 60% in a single month, knowingly overpaying for it is just asking for extreme portfolio short-term pain.</p><p>If you own NVDA today, as I do? I don&#39;t recommend selling it. Not when you&#39;ve potentially locked in Buffett-like 18% CAGR long-term returns and its growth engines are firing on all cylinders.</p><p>But for new money today? QCOM is the far better option, and could more than double in the next five years.</p><p>Even if QCOM&#39;s growth outlook never recovers from its current 8%, paying 9.4X cash-adjusted earnings gives you a very nice margin of safety.</p><p>One that means anyone buying QCOM today is likely to be pleased in 5+ years, and possibly feel like a stock market genius in 10+ years.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Qualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQualcomm Vs. Nvidia: The Better Buy Might Shock You\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-20 12:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market's crazy gyrations? I know I do.Does the idea of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4558697-qualcomm-vs-nvidia-the-better-buy-might-shock-you","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2284038371","content_text":"Do you dream of retiring in comfort or even splendor? Who doesn't?!Do you wish your retirement standard of living could be 100% free from the market's crazy gyrations? I know I do.Does the idea of being able to count on steadily growing income in all market, economic, inflation, and interest rate conditions, sound appealing? It does to me.Well then blue-chip dividend investing might be just what you're looking for.When you hear \"dividend investing\" you probably think of boring, mature, and stable businesses like Altria (MO), Verizon (VZ) or Pepsi (PEP).And while those are indeed wonderful ways to earn generous, very safe, and steadily growing income today, if you want to maximize long-term retirement income there is no better way than combining high-yield and fast-growth.Why? Let's consider the examples of two fast-growing dividend chip stocks, QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) and NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA).Let's see what happens when we combine high-yield with fast-growth.Historical Total Returns Since 2011Portfolio Visualizer PremiumCombining the world's best high-yield and growth exchange-traded funds (\"ETFs\") with the growth and ultra-yield blue-chips created a far better performing portfolio over the last 11 years.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumBut more importantly for income investors, it also delivered superior income over time.Income Growth Rich Retirement Dreams Are Made OfPortfolio Visualizer PremiumCumulative Dividends Since 2012: Per $1,000 Initial InvestmentMetricS&P 500SCHDSCHD, QQQ, ENB, MO, NVDA, QCOMTotal Dividends$471$785$1,177Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$359.54$599.24$898.47Annualized Income Growth Rate9.0%15.3%27.9%Total Income/Initial Investment %0.470.791.18Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %0.360.600.90More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than S&PNA1.672.50Starting Yield2.5%3.2%2.7%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)5.9%13.3%31.7%2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)4.5%10.2%24.2%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)By combining yield and growth over the last 10 year income investors have enjoyed 28% annual income growth, 2X better than Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD), and 3X better than the S&P 500 (SP500).They've gotten back 90% of their initial investment in inflation-adjusted dividends, and enjoyed 2.5X more income than the S&P 500 and 50% more income than SCHD alone.And for every $1 invested in 2011 they are now getting $.24 in annual inflation-adjusted dividends, and that's growing exponentially each year.SCHD investors are getting $0.1 in annual income per $1 investmentS&P 500 investors $0.05.Ok, so that's fine for those with 10+ years to invest, but surely retirees should stick to high-yield only right? WRONG!Unless you expect to drop dead in 10 years let's not forget that retirements last a long time.Hamilton Project22% of U.S. men can expect to live to 90 and 34% of woman.In other words, even if you're already retired chances are very good that you have a 10+ year, or even 30 to 40 year time horizon.And that's where the power of fast dividend compounding really shines.How powerful is hyper-dividend compounding over 35 years?MO + LOW Cumulative Dividends Since 1985 Per $1,000 Initial Investment MetricAltriaLowe'sAltria + Lowe'sTotal Dividends$282,584$37,611$286,519Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$100,563.70$13,384.70$101,964.06Annualized Income Growth Rate18.8%18.2%21.7%Total Income/Initial Investment %282.5837.61286.52Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %100.5613.38101.96More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than AltriaNA0.131.01Starting Yield4.8%1.4%3.0%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)2774.0%682.5%4350.4%Today's Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)987.2%242.9%1548.2%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium)You can enjoy 100X your initial investment in inflation-adjusted income and achieve truly mind boggling income by combining ultra-yield with hyper-dividend growth.And guess what? Combining yield + hyper-growth, even without dividends can be even more powerful.MO + AMZN Cumulative Dividends Since 1998 Per $1,000 Initial Investment MetricAltriaAltria + AmazonTotal Dividends$3,034.00$101,408.00Total Inflation-Adjusted Dividends$1,657.92$55,414.21Annualized Income Growth Rate3.31%27.96%Total Income/Initial Investment %3.034101.408Inflation-Adjusted Income/Initial Investment %1.65792349755.41420765More Inflation-Adjusted Income Than AltriaNA33.4Starting Yield3.80%4.10%Today's Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Yield On Cost)8.30%1523.50%2022 Inflation-Adjusted Annual Dividend Return On Your Starting Investment (Inflation-Adjusted Yield On Cost)4.54%832.51%(Source: Portfolio Visualizer Premium) MO's dividend growth is low because of the 2007 and 2008 spin-offs. Had you bought both AMZN and MO back in 1997, reinvested dividends, and rebalanced annually, today you've received 33X more inflation-adjusted income over the last 24 years.28% annual income growth means a 208X higher inflation-adjusted yield on cost.Income growth over time tends to track total returns, so you want to make sure that you're dividend portfolio is likely to generate strong returns. Not just to keep up with inflation (2.3% long-term according to the bond market).You want your standard of living to keep rising in retirement, no matter how long you live.And that's where growth stocks like QCOM and NVDA can help.Several members have asked for an update on those chip titans and after carefully examining both companies most recent fundamentals I have come to a surprising conclusion.At the moment, Nvidia is the far better chip dividend stock to buy, for anyone looking to maximize long-term income. Let me show you why.Qualcomm: A Wonderful World-Beater Facing A Slower Growth FutureYchartsChip makers are up 26% in the last month, though that's only after getting crushed in a ferocious bear market.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumNvidia fell as much as 63% in this bear market (so far). That's its 3rd worst bear market in history.Portfolio Visualizer PremiumQCOM has fallen as much as 37% in this bear market, also it's 3rd worst bear market.Smartphone Weakness Finally Catches Up to Qualcomm As Inventories BuildQualcomm’s guidance includes an estimated negative impact of about $2 billion in revenue due to weaker demand, foreign exchange headwinds, and excess inventories.\" - MorningstarOne year ago, chip makers were the darlings of Wall Street. The Pandemic supply chain disruptions caused a chip shortage, while record $30 trillion in global stimulus caused a boom in demand for physical goods. Many of which require computer chips.Some in the industry were even talking about a permanent industry shift, from cyclical boom and bust cycles, to a world in which chip makers could deliver steady, tech utility like secular growth.Well, scratch that idea. It turns out chips are still a cyclical industry and smartphone demand is falling rapidly as the global economy weakens.Samsung’s profit drops by more than 30% on weakening memory chip demandQualcomm said it expects its mobile-phone handset business to fall In \"a low double-digit percentage range\" this year from last year. The company had earlier forecast a \"mid-single-digit percentage decline\" from 2021.\" - Seeking AlphaAs early as Q2 QCOM's sales were soaring 36% on the back of strong smartphone demand.Now they are expected to decline and so are earnings.FactSet Research TerminalAfter exploding higher during the pandemic, QCOM's earnings are expected to:fall 8% in 2023grow 11% in 20242% EPS growth from 2022 to 2024.QCOM's licensing business, which generates incredible 73% operating margins, isn't expected to grow in the future, though its 263,708 patents are still expected to mint free cash flow for years to come.At least in the short-term analysts growth outlooks have dimmed for QCOM which is now expected to grow around 8% over the long-term, after we get past the 2023 recession.FAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetFAST Graphs, FactSetIs QCOM likely to actually grow at 8% over time? Which would make the total return outlook rather uninspiring?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnNasdaq0.8%11.8%12.6%8.8%6.5%11.01.88Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.1%11.81.81Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.4%13.21.70S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.81.61Qualcomm2.4%7.8%10.2%7.1%4.8%15.01.60(Source: DK Research Terminal, FactSet)If analysts are right, then QCOM might merely match the market going forward.But I don't actually expect QCOM to grow at just 8% in the future, and here are two reasons why.Investor presentationQCOM's addressable market is expected to grow from $100 billion per year (43% market share) to $700 billion in the next decade. QCOM is diversifying into cloud computing, driverless cars, and the internet of things or IOT.This makes me think that the recent decline in growth outlook is due to the recent cyclical downturn, which often happens with chip makers.YchartsHowever, in the short-term QCOM investors are going to have to be patient, because the recent face-ripping rally has reduced the total return potential for the next few years.YchartsQCOM has rallied 21% off its November 3rd lows, and combined with a weak global growth outlook for 2023, means that short-term growth prospects are rather weak.But that doesn't mean that QCOM isn't a potentially attractive buy.fair value: $163.92current price: $126.02discount to fair value: 23%DK rating: potentially strong buy.FactSet Research TerminalQCOM is trading at 11.4X consensus trough earnings, and just 9.3X cash-adjusted trough earnings.That means it's pricing in approximately 1.6% CAGR long-term growth, far below the 7.8% analysts currently expect.Qualcomm 2024 Consensus Return Potential FAST Graphs, FactSetWhich means that if QCOM grows as expected and returns to historical market-determined fair value it could deliver Buffett-like 19% annual returns over the next three years.about 2X the S&P consensusQualcomm 2028 Consensus Return PotentialFAST Graphs, FactSetEven with just 3.5% annual EPS growth expected through 2028, QCOM could more than double your money, delivering 14% annual returns, about 2X the S&P consensus.Or to put another way, if you buy QCOM today, you get an Ultra-SWAN quality dividend growth powerhouse, that could more than double your money as we wait to see if QCOM's growth outlook improves in the future.FAST Graphs, FActSetQCOM has been paying a dividend for 19 consecutive years, and raised it every year. The dividend growth rate has been a stellar 20% annually and its delivered close to 14% annual returns.the current five year consensus return forecast.I think long-term QCOM should be able to continue delivering 13% to 14% long-term returns, which makes it worth buying today, or at least holding it if you already own it.13% to 14% long-term returns is better than SCHD, the S&P, dividend aristocrats, and the Nasdaq.Qualcomm Investment Decision ScoreDKDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolQCOM might not be a table-pounding buy compared to the S&P 500, but it's still a satisfactory one that's offering:superior and safer yielda faster-growing dividendbetter medium-term total returns66% better risk-adjusted expected returns30% higher income potential over the next five years than the S&PNVIDIA: A Chip Specialist Facing A Cyclical Downturn But Whose Hyper-Growth Outlook Remains IntactNVDA fell off a cliff when the Biden Administration announced export controls on chips to China.Fortunately the company adapted quickly and has already announced new export control compliant chips.YchartsNews like that, along with the overall \"risk on\" sentiment in stocks, has helped drive NVDA up 44% in recent weeks.This isn't surprising given that NVDA is a very volatile stock, historically 2.2X more volatile than the S&P 500.Nvidia Rolling Returns Since Feb 1999 IPOPortfolio Visualizer PremiumGut churning volatility cuts both ways, with 90% crashes followed by 751% one year rallies.From bear market lows NVDA is capable of:140% annual returns for 3 years = 13.8X in 3 years89% annual returns for five years = 24.1X in five years81% annual returns for seven years = 64.9X in seven years47% annual returns for 10 years = 92.4X in 10 years34% annual returns for 15 years = 77.1X in 15 years.The question investors need answered today, is what does NVDA's long-term outlook like now that the U.S. and China are in an economic cold war?Nvidia's Data Center Business Drives the Firm's Wide Moat RatingNvidia is the top designer of discrete graphics processing units that enhance the visual experience on computing platforms. The firm's chips are used in a variety of end markets, including high-end PCs for gaming and data centers.\" - MorningstarNVDA might have started out focused on gaming PCs, but it's now at the forefront of some of the world's best secular growth trends.cloud computingAIdriverless carsautomation.investor presentationManagement estimates NVDA's total addressable market is $1 trillion per year (2.7% market share) and those markets are the backbone of the entire $100 trillion global economy.The acquisition of Mellanox has helped diversify Nvidia’s end-market exposure, and we suspect the firm will derive over half of revenue from the data center segment going forward, which should help mitigate some of the volatility Nvidia has faced in its gaming and cryptocurrency mining-related sales over the past few years.\" - MorningstarNVDA has been diversifying away from gaming for years, and Morningstar thinks they could soon get over 50% of sales from datacenters, a far more stable business.FactSet Research TerminalAnalysts are even more bullish on the datacenter business, expecting it to triple in the next five years.25% annual growth rate.By 2027 analysts think 73% of NVDA's sales will be coming from datacenters.Why? Because datacenters are enterprise and big businesses don't mind spending millions on the best hardware if it saves them money in the long-term.What kind of businesses are NVDA's datacenter customers?investor presentationNVDA's datacenter customers have deep pockets and are expected to help drive incredible long-term growth. How incredible?FactSet Research TerminalHow about tripling earnings in five years, and 18% long-term earnings growth?20% to 78% CAGR growth over the last 20 years.Given NVDA's massive $1 trillion addressable market, and dominance in advanced GPUs (the \"super chips\" that drive the future) I consider 18% long-term growth a reasonable estimate from all 46 analysts who cover it.What does that potentially mean for investors?Investment StrategyYieldLT Consensus GrowthLT Consensus Total Return PotentialLong-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnLong-Term Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnsYears To Double Your Inflation & Risk-Adjusted Wealth10-Year Inflation And Risk-Adjusted Expected ReturnNvidia0.1%17.7%17.8%12.5%10.1%7.12.62Nasdaq0.8%11.8%12.6%8.8%6.5%11.01.88Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF3.6%8.5%12.1%8.4%6.1%11.81.81Dividend Aristocrats2.6%8.5%11.1%7.8%5.4%13.21.70S&P 5001.8%8.5%10.3%7.2%4.9%14.81.61Qualcomm2.4%7.8%10.2%7.1%4.8%15.01.60(Sources: DK Research Terminal, FactSet, Morningstar, Ycharts)Analysts expect Buffett-like 18% long-term returns from NVDA, not much bellow its 22% CAGR rolling 15-year returns since 1999.In other words:QCOM is struggling with several slow years of growth due to cyclical headwindsNVDA's growth engine is firing on all cylinders thanks to its dominance of super chip GPUs driving the future of the world economyOK, so NVDA is the best chip stock right? And clearly better than QCOM? Not necessarily.The Biggest Problem Income Investors Will Have With NvidiaWhat is there to not love about NVDA? Is it the balance sheet?A stable credit rating from S&P = 0.66% 30-year bankruptcy risk$11 billion in net cash on the balance sheet$6.6 billion in annual free cash flow.No, NVDA's balanced sheet is a fortress and it's a free cash flow minting machine.No, the biggest issue about NVDA is how stingy management is with the dividend.FAST Graphs, FactSetNVDA's overall dividend growth rate is expectational, 27% CAGR since it began paying on in 2013. And its 52% CAGR annual total returns over that time period put even Amazon (AMZN) to shame.But note how the dividend growth rate began slowing in 2018 and it hasn't raised its dividend for two years. The free cash flow (\"FCF\") payout ratio has fallen to 5%, 1/10th the credit rating safety guideline for this industry.NVDA's dividend yield is 0.1% and even if management were to take the payout ratio to the 50% safety guideline it would be just 1%, far below other world-beater blue-chip dividend chip stocks.Broadcom (AVGO): 3.2%Texas Instruments (TXN): 2.8%Qualcomm: 2.4%.FactSet Research TerminalValue investors might also be uncomfortable with a company trading at 38X forward earnings.cash-adjusted P/E is 29XWhat is NVDA's fair value?NVDA fair value: $136.39current price: $160.55discount to fair value: -18%DK rating: hold.NVDA's 45% rally in recent weeks meant the margin of safety went from 21% to -18%.Today NVDA is at a premium price that means a lot of downside risk for one of the most volatile world-beater tech blue-chips in the world.If the 2023 recession causes earnings estimates to come down in the coming quarters? Then NVDA could suffer a sharp decline like these.Nvidia In The 2022 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumIn the past year alone NVDA has suffered double-digit monthly declines no less than six times, including 32% crash in April.Nvidia In The PandemicPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNvidia held up well in the Pandemic, as did most tech stocks.The Nasdaq 100 fell just 12% while the S&P fell 34%.But NVDA's crashes are the stuff of legend, and anyone owning it should be prepared for truly gut-wrenching volatility in the future. What kind of volatility?Nvidia In The 2018 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumImagine a stock you own falls 25% in a month, then 22% the next month, and then another 18% the following month.That's what happened in the 2018 bear market.53% decline in 3 monthsS&P fell 21%.And that was just the 4th largest bear market in NVDA's history.it's suffered six 40+% crashes in the last 23 yearsaveraging once every four years.Nvidia In The 2011 Bear MarketPortfolio Visualizer PremiumCompared to some its crashes, the 2011 bear market decline of 38% was relatively tame.Nvidia In The Great RecessionPortfolio Visualizer PremiumNVDA dell 80% during the Great Recession, including falling almost 40% in July 2008. It fell 54% from June to July of 2008, a level of volatility that only those who owned it in a diversified portfolio could stomach.Nvidia Pre-Tech CrashPortfolio Visualizer PremiumEven before the tech crash of 2000 to 2002, NVDA was capable of falling 32% in a single month.Nvidia During The Tech CrashPortfolio Visualizer PremiumPortfolio Visualizer PremiumIf you think a 45% one month rally means NVDA is out of the woods, you're wrong.During the Tech Crash NVDA had nine 20+% single month rallies.That includes nearly tripling from October 2001 to December 2001.NVDA then proceeded to fall nine straight months, a total of 87%, including getting cut in half in June 2002.after already falling 50% in the previous five monthsand then it fell another 50% before bottoming in September of 2022.So what if you buy NVDA today? At a 17% historical premium? Will you regret it? That depends on your time horizon. Over the next few months? Probably you're in for a wild wide...to the downside.2023 recession is expected to cause the market to bottom at 3,000 to 3,400 between Q1 of 2023 and Q4 of 2024.But in the medium-term and long-term?Nvidia 2025 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)NVDA's P/E peaked in the Pandemic bubble at 82X, compared to a historical market-determined fair value of 32.It's 60% collapse brought it back to historical fair value and then it rallied 45% and became 18% overvalued. Despite strong growth in 2024 and 2025, it's consensus return potential is effectively zero.NVIDIA 2028 Consensus Total Return Potential(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)NVDA's growth rate is so strong that it might almost double even from today's 18% historical premium.approximately 2X the S&P consensus.But if those estimates come down then NVDA investors could be in for a rough and highly volatile few years.Nvidia Investment Decision ScoreDKDividend Kings Automated Investment Decision ToolNVDA today, even at an 18% premium, is a superior choice compared to the S&P 500.higher risk-adjusted expected return than the S&P over the next five years80% higher long-term annual return potentialBottom Line: Nvidia Is The Far Better Growth Stock But Qualcomm Is The Far Better Buy TodayWhen it comes to maximizing safe long-term income, combining hyper-growth with high-yield is the single best strategy.And that's why blue-chip income investors love companies like QCOM and NVDA, which can turbocharge their long-term income growth rates.SCHD delivered 15% annual income growth over the last decadeSCHD, QQQ, MO, ENB, QCOM, and NVDA delivered 28% CAGRand 50% more overall inflation-adjusted income.And when it comes to the issue of which chip titan is the better growth stock, it looks like NVDA is the hands down winner.a 10X bigger addressable market today (though QCOM is planning to catch up 70% of the way within a decade)2x the median growth consensushistorically 7% higher annual returns.So you might think that NVDA is the hands down winner here. But remember that valuation matters, and it matters a lot.QCOM is 20% historically undervaluedNVDA is almost 20% historically overvalued.Given that NVDA is one of the most volatile companies on earth, capable of rising or falling 60% in a single month, knowingly overpaying for it is just asking for extreme portfolio short-term pain.If you own NVDA today, as I do? I don't recommend selling it. Not when you've potentially locked in Buffett-like 18% CAGR long-term returns and its growth engines are firing on all cylinders.But for new money today? QCOM is the far better option, and could more than double in the next five years.Even if QCOM's growth outlook never recovers from its current 8%, paying 9.4X cash-adjusted earnings gives you a very nice margin of safety.One that means anyone buying QCOM today is likely to be pleased in 5+ years, and possibly feel like a stock market genius in 10+ years.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916326048,"gmtCreate":1664514830684,"gmtModify":1676537469936,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Blush]&nbsp;","listText":"[Blush]&nbsp;","text":"[Blush]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916326048","repostId":"1188324957","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188324957","pubTimestamp":1664501785,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188324957?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-30 09:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple’s Ugly Day Wipes Out $120 Billion, Spills Over Big Tech","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188324957","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"IPhone maker fell 4.9% after a rare analyst rating downgradeAmazon and Alphabet shares drop nearly 3","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul><li>IPhone maker fell 4.9% after a rare analyst rating downgrade</li><li>Amazon and Alphabet shares drop nearly 3% amid broad selloff</li></ul><p>Apple Inc.shares buckled after a rare analyst downgrade exacerbated another wave of selling pressure that wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value from the largest US technology stocks.</p><p>The iPhone maker dropped 4.9% after Bank of Americacutits rating to neutral from buy, warning of weaker consumer demand for its popular devices. The selloff erased roughly $120 billion from Apple’s market capitalization.</p><p>There were few places to hide on Thursday with investors dumping stocks as Federal Reserve officials continue totalk toughon raising interest rates in the central bank’s fight against inflation. There were just three gainers in the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index, which fell 2.9% and within spitting distance of its June 16 low. Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. fell nearly 3%, while Microsoft Corp. dropped 1.5%.</p><p>Meta Platforms sank 3.7% after Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerbergoutlinedplans to reduce headcount for the first time ever. The social media giant’s shares have fallen 59% this year amid slowing user growth.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bd998a1b220129d9fe0b36a07833bc1\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Apple has been treated as a haven for much of this year, outperforming fellow mega-caps and the broader tech gauge amid a steep selloff driven by recession fears. The world’s most valuable company with a market value of nearly $2.3 trillion has now fallen about 20% in 2022, compared to a 32% decline for the Nasdaq 100.</p><p>With consumer spending expected to cool across regions, BofA analysts led by Wamsi Mohan said demand for Apple’s services has already slowed and product demand is likely to follow. Pressure from a stronger dollar will only add to its woes, they said.</p><p>While “Apple’s long-term prospects remain favorable,” BofA expects negative estimate revisions and valuation risks in the near-term.</p><p>The Nasdaq 100 is on pace for its longest streak of quarterly declines in 20 years, yet investors are stillbracingfor more pain as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates and Wall Street analysts begin cutting profit estimates.</p><p>Estimates for 2023 profit growth for tech companies in the S&amp;P 500 have declined about 6 percentage points since the start of 2022, compared with a drop of 4 percentage points for the broader index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple’s Ugly Day Wipes Out $120 Billion, Spills Over Big Tech</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple’s Ugly Day Wipes Out $120 Billion, Spills Over Big Tech\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-30 09:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/apple-hit-with-downgrade-as-bofa-sees-outperformance-at-risk><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>IPhone maker fell 4.9% after a rare analyst rating downgradeAmazon and Alphabet shares drop nearly 3% amid broad selloffApple Inc.shares buckled after a rare analyst downgrade exacerbated another wave...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/apple-hit-with-downgrade-as-bofa-sees-outperformance-at-risk\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/apple-hit-with-downgrade-as-bofa-sees-outperformance-at-risk","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188324957","content_text":"IPhone maker fell 4.9% after a rare analyst rating downgradeAmazon and Alphabet shares drop nearly 3% amid broad selloffApple Inc.shares buckled after a rare analyst downgrade exacerbated another wave of selling pressure that wiped out hundreds of billions of dollars in market value from the largest US technology stocks.The iPhone maker dropped 4.9% after Bank of Americacutits rating to neutral from buy, warning of weaker consumer demand for its popular devices. The selloff erased roughly $120 billion from Apple’s market capitalization.There were few places to hide on Thursday with investors dumping stocks as Federal Reserve officials continue totalk toughon raising interest rates in the central bank’s fight against inflation. There were just three gainers in the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index, which fell 2.9% and within spitting distance of its June 16 low. Amazon.com Inc. and Alphabet Inc. fell nearly 3%, while Microsoft Corp. dropped 1.5%.Meta Platforms sank 3.7% after Chief Executive Officer Mark Zuckerbergoutlinedplans to reduce headcount for the first time ever. The social media giant’s shares have fallen 59% this year amid slowing user growth.Apple has been treated as a haven for much of this year, outperforming fellow mega-caps and the broader tech gauge amid a steep selloff driven by recession fears. The world’s most valuable company with a market value of nearly $2.3 trillion has now fallen about 20% in 2022, compared to a 32% decline for the Nasdaq 100.With consumer spending expected to cool across regions, BofA analysts led by Wamsi Mohan said demand for Apple’s services has already slowed and product demand is likely to follow. Pressure from a stronger dollar will only add to its woes, they said.While “Apple’s long-term prospects remain favorable,” BofA expects negative estimate revisions and valuation risks in the near-term.The Nasdaq 100 is on pace for its longest streak of quarterly declines in 20 years, yet investors are stillbracingfor more pain as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates and Wall Street analysts begin cutting profit estimates.Estimates for 2023 profit growth for tech companies in the S&P 500 have declined about 6 percentage points since the start of 2022, compared with a drop of 4 percentage points for the broader index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910420778,"gmtCreate":1663667875394,"gmtModify":1676537312055,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910420778","repostId":"2268192960","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2268192960","pubTimestamp":1663666978,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2268192960?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-20 17:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Reason Why Apple Didn't Increase IPhone Prices","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2268192960","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryApple just unveiled its new iPhone 14, together with other key products.Despite big hoopla ab","content":"<html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Apple just unveiled its new iPhone 14, together with other key products.</li><li>Despite big hoopla about price hikes up to $100, Apple surprised everybody by announcing it will keep iPhone 14 prices the same they were when the iPhone 13 was launched.</li><li>In this article we will try to understand why Apple can do this in an inflationary environment without compressing its margins.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87d98e1014a773e74de9ddeb3f9f3a05\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Drew Angerer</span></p><h2>Introduction</h2><p>Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced that is latest line-up of iPhones 14, while having enhanced qualities, will be sold all at the same prices as last year’s models, despite inflationary pressure that was leading many analyststo $100 price hike forecast.</p><p>This paints a picture that poses a danger for Apple: is the world&#39;s largest company going to see its margins shrink and its profitability reduced?</p><p>In this article, I would like to highlight what I think Apple&#39;s strategy may be to deliver yet again improving results that keep its high margins up.</p><h2>The context</h2><p>The research firm International Data Corp expects a worldwide decline in 2022 smartphone shipments of 6.5%. Nonetheless, the average price for new smartphones is expected to finish this year about 6% higher than last year, with the premium segment (where we find Apple) that is proving to be resilient to the economic turmoil with a 4% growth in market share to 16% of the total smartphone market.</p><p>The picture is somewhat mixed. On one side we have a weakening economy, on the other, we see Apple among the resilient businesses. But, by keeping iPhones prices the same, Apple will risk the undermining of its profits, given the fact that inflation drives up production costs. Some believe that Apple will take this hit, given its net income of $79 billion in the first three quarters of the year. However, I would like to show that we shouldn&#39;t be too rash in stating that Apple will just give up a small percentage, yet big in absolute terms, of its profits without doing anything to prevent it.</p><p>Apple sold an estimated 106 million iPhones through the first half of this year, an 8% increase and still expects to reach 220 million iPhones for 2022. Furthermore, the annual revenue estimates see Apple reaching an $88.47 billion 4th quarter, which, in confirmed, is a 6% growth YoY.</p><p>The analyst Dan Ives has also pointed out that Apple&#39;s initial order for 90 million iPhone 14 units has &#34;stayed firm&#34;. In fact, almost 25% of the 1 billion iPhone users across the world have not upgraded in 3.5 years and demand in China for the high-end devices continues to remain strong.</p><p>So, if sales are expected to grow 6% while inflation is around 8% it seems reasonable to expect Apple to suffer a bit. We could also account the strong dollar that is hurting Apple&#39;s revenue outside the U.S. All of this leads us to the question about Apple&#39;s next fiscal year.</p><h2>The business model: from a transactional to a subscription company</h2><p>If Apple were to rely only on its devices sales, then there wouldn&#39;t be a way around it: keeping prices the same means shrinking margins. However, is Apple only a transactional company?</p><p>Before we dive into some math, we have to consider that Apple is changing its business model, leveraging the fact that it is able to place its hardware devices in every corner. Instead of profiting only from selling hardware, Apple is gradually shifting its focus on maximizing the way to monetize the huge base of installed devices it has all over the world. In other words, Apple is considering every device not only as product sales revenue, but also as the key to earn more money from its user during the device lifetime. If we want to make it even clearer, Apple wants to make more money from its devices, especially the iPhones, the iPads and the MacBooks.</p><p>How is Apple achieving this? Through services. Apple offers different subscription services that offer recurrent revenue from every device. This is why Apple has started breaking down its revenue between products and services. By doing this, Apple can show how its real growth driver at the moment is found in the offered services.</p><p>In its annual report, Apple explains what it considers when it reports service sales:</p><blockquote>Services net sales include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, cloud, digital content, payment and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of services bundled in the sales price of certain products.</blockquote><p>I think it is still to understand the leveraging power Apple has. While many subscription based companies need to prove to their customers the value of their services, Apple has the huge advantage of basing its subscriptions on material goods that millions of customers around the world already have and want to have. I think this is Apple&#39;s real moat: it is materially present almost everywhere with its devices. Now it only needs to extract more money from their daily usage.</p><h2>Seeking recurrent revenue</h2><p>Back in March 2022, Bloomberg reported that Apple is working on a hardware subscription service for the iPhone which would not be equal to the full price split over 24 months, but that would really offer a new way of becoming an iPhone user. However, while this news is promising, we don&#39;t have enough data to make a forecast of the positive impact if will have on Apple.</p><p>Things are different if we look at the current services. Back in 2016, the average Apple user was estimated to pay $1 per day for hardware and services. According to Katy Huberty, an Apple analyst, at present the average user spends $280 each year on Apple hardware and an additional $69 on services. It is also widely believed that there are about 1 billion Apple users who can give Apple recurring sales income as they adopt new service subscriptions.</p><p>According to the analyst Woodring, Apple users will spend in a few years $2 per day on Apple products or services, a figure already achieved by US iPhone owners. This means that Apple will see a daily revenue of $2 billion, which leads to an annual revenue of $730 billion, which is twice the size of the revenue Apple reported in 2021. It can be reasonable to expect that as the hardware subscription service kicks off, the program will boost the adoption of Apple&#39;s first-party services, such as Music, iCloud, etc. This should have a positive impact on services growth but it should also diminish the company’s dependence on App Store sales. In fact, around 30% of Apple’s current services revenue comes from here. The more Apple sells its first-hand services, the larger the chunk of profits it can retain. However, third party apps are indeed a very profitable business, as Apple has very low costs to earn this revenue since it just needs to make its app store available.</p><p>So far, we know that at the end of fiscal year 2021, Apple users had 785 million paid subscriptions across Apple’s first and third-party services. With a reasonable forecast of $76 billion revenue from services in 2022, Apple will reach a 235% growth from the $32.7 billion services revenue reported in 2017, the year when Apple started reporting its net sales with the breakdown between products and services. In the same time span, revenue from products increased 160% from $196.5 billion to the expected $315.9 billion at the end of fiscal year 2022. This growth is shown in the graph below where we see the annual sales split up in products and services.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2547d7f4afd1fb9114caa34a469f3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"302\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author with data from Apple&#39;s Annual Reports</span></p><p>However, the importance of this graph is not only to highlight the growing chunk of the services revenue, but also to show that as services revenue grows, so does the gross margin. Currently, services account for about 20% of the total revenues, but the impact they have on margins is becoming more and more meaningful. In fact, the cost of services is decreasing as a percentage of total costs, moving from 10.43% in 2017 to 9.24% in 2022. In addition, and even more importantly, the gross margin Apple obtains from the services revenue is moving up from 55% in 2017 to around 72.5% at the end of FY22, as shown below. During the same period of time, the gross margin of the products revenue has seen actually a compression or around 2 pps.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f90ad845ba6da80aebe515476acede2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Author, with data from Apple&#39;s Annual Reports</span></p><p>Nonetheless, even if the products gross margin shrunk, the increase in services gross margin, even if it has an impact on only 20% of total revenues, has been so meaningful to drag upwards the total gross margin of Apple that moved up from 38.5% in 2017 to almost 42% at the end of last year, with a forecast for this fiscal year to be still around this level.</p><p>So, why can Apple afford not to raise prices this year? For sure, part of is a marketing expense that wants to make customers perceive the iPhone as somewhat in reach in an inflationary environment where everything costs more. But, the impact on the revenue will not be as great as we may expect because Apple knows that it is monetizing better all its users. Therefore, Apple knows that even though purchase price of the iPhones remains the same, the company is extracting more money from a device compared to what it was able to do just a year ago.</p><p>In fact, if we divide last year&#39;s services revenue by Apple&#39;s users we see that in 2021 every user spent around $68 in annual services (keep in mind that the $2 per day reported above takes into account products and services together). This year Apple should see at least an 11.7% growth to $76 annual services revenue per user. Clearly, the annual services revenue per user is meaningful.</p><p>We can also look at this revenue from another point of view to understand the possible growth for this segment. During the last earnings call,Tim Cook reported that</p><blockquote>We now have more than 860 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, which is up more than 160 million during the last 12 months alone.</blockquote><p>If we divide the $76.8 billion services revenue by the 860 million paid subscription we get that the revenue per subscription is $89, which proves once more that Apple knows it has room to turn more users into paying subscribers.</p><p>In any case, this services growth is enough to offset the current inflation rate, which, as many believe, is set to come down during 2023, where services should have at least a 21% weight on total revenues. Thus, even if the products revenue stays flat (and this would be somewhat of a surprise given the fact that the premium segment is growing), we would have a fifth of total revenues bump up another 10-13%, with a very low cost of sales. The impact on the revenue might still be just around 2%, however the impact on the gross margin will be already more tangible, lifting it up above 42% thus leading Apple to new record profits.</p><p>To this strategy, we could also add that Apple is developing its direct to consumer sales through its e-commerce. Some estimates show that around 15% of iPhone shipments, 30% of Mac/iPads, and 20-25% of Wearables (AirPods and Apple Watch) are sold directly through this channel which brings Apple to enjoy more margins while decreasing sales costs.</p><p>We mentioned briefly that Apple could also a FX problem. While I think the company may expect a little weakening of the dollar, given the point it has reached this year, I think that the fact the company didn&#39;t raise prices show how much Apple relies on the shift towards services revenue.</p><h2>Conclusion</h2><p>The first stock I invested in was Apple. At that time I didn&#39;t know how to read financial statements, nor did I have any particular experience of investing other than having heard a few ideas from my father who had been doing it. But I was sure of the brand. Alas, when I saw a 40% gain I sold my single share and I used the dividends received meanwhile to go drink a coffee. Had I kept that share, now I would have much more. However, the more I developed a passion for investing, the more I returned to Apple and started noticing that the company is not idle nor just sits on its earned status. I keep on seeing a company that becomes more profitable and that is actually set to have a moat no other subscription company has ever enjoyed with the combination of hardware devices that produce recurrent revenue. Financials are important and I always look at them, but in Apple&#39;s case (as in many others) it is important to understand the driving force behind these numbers in order to understand how a business can fare in the future. I think Apple is yet to deliver good and improving results as it leverages its moat and this is why I keep on rating it a buy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Reason Why Apple Didn't Increase IPhone Prices</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Reason Why Apple Didn't Increase IPhone Prices\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-20 17:42 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541976-reason-why-apple-didnt-increase-iphone-prices><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryApple just unveiled its new iPhone 14, together with other key products.Despite big hoopla about price hikes up to $100, Apple surprised everybody by announcing it will keep iPhone 14 prices ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541976-reason-why-apple-didnt-increase-iphone-prices\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4541976-reason-why-apple-didnt-increase-iphone-prices","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2268192960","content_text":"SummaryApple just unveiled its new iPhone 14, together with other key products.Despite big hoopla about price hikes up to $100, Apple surprised everybody by announcing it will keep iPhone 14 prices the same they were when the iPhone 13 was launched.In this article we will try to understand why Apple can do this in an inflationary environment without compressing its margins.Drew AngererIntroductionApple (NASDAQ:AAPL) announced that is latest line-up of iPhones 14, while having enhanced qualities, will be sold all at the same prices as last year’s models, despite inflationary pressure that was leading many analyststo $100 price hike forecast.This paints a picture that poses a danger for Apple: is the world's largest company going to see its margins shrink and its profitability reduced?In this article, I would like to highlight what I think Apple's strategy may be to deliver yet again improving results that keep its high margins up.The contextThe research firm International Data Corp expects a worldwide decline in 2022 smartphone shipments of 6.5%. Nonetheless, the average price for new smartphones is expected to finish this year about 6% higher than last year, with the premium segment (where we find Apple) that is proving to be resilient to the economic turmoil with a 4% growth in market share to 16% of the total smartphone market.The picture is somewhat mixed. On one side we have a weakening economy, on the other, we see Apple among the resilient businesses. But, by keeping iPhones prices the same, Apple will risk the undermining of its profits, given the fact that inflation drives up production costs. Some believe that Apple will take this hit, given its net income of $79 billion in the first three quarters of the year. However, I would like to show that we shouldn't be too rash in stating that Apple will just give up a small percentage, yet big in absolute terms, of its profits without doing anything to prevent it.Apple sold an estimated 106 million iPhones through the first half of this year, an 8% increase and still expects to reach 220 million iPhones for 2022. Furthermore, the annual revenue estimates see Apple reaching an $88.47 billion 4th quarter, which, in confirmed, is a 6% growth YoY.The analyst Dan Ives has also pointed out that Apple's initial order for 90 million iPhone 14 units has \"stayed firm\". In fact, almost 25% of the 1 billion iPhone users across the world have not upgraded in 3.5 years and demand in China for the high-end devices continues to remain strong.So, if sales are expected to grow 6% while inflation is around 8% it seems reasonable to expect Apple to suffer a bit. We could also account the strong dollar that is hurting Apple's revenue outside the U.S. All of this leads us to the question about Apple's next fiscal year.The business model: from a transactional to a subscription companyIf Apple were to rely only on its devices sales, then there wouldn't be a way around it: keeping prices the same means shrinking margins. However, is Apple only a transactional company?Before we dive into some math, we have to consider that Apple is changing its business model, leveraging the fact that it is able to place its hardware devices in every corner. Instead of profiting only from selling hardware, Apple is gradually shifting its focus on maximizing the way to monetize the huge base of installed devices it has all over the world. In other words, Apple is considering every device not only as product sales revenue, but also as the key to earn more money from its user during the device lifetime. If we want to make it even clearer, Apple wants to make more money from its devices, especially the iPhones, the iPads and the MacBooks.How is Apple achieving this? Through services. Apple offers different subscription services that offer recurrent revenue from every device. This is why Apple has started breaking down its revenue between products and services. By doing this, Apple can show how its real growth driver at the moment is found in the offered services.In its annual report, Apple explains what it considers when it reports service sales:Services net sales include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, cloud, digital content, payment and other services. Services net sales also include amortization of the deferred value of services bundled in the sales price of certain products.I think it is still to understand the leveraging power Apple has. While many subscription based companies need to prove to their customers the value of their services, Apple has the huge advantage of basing its subscriptions on material goods that millions of customers around the world already have and want to have. I think this is Apple's real moat: it is materially present almost everywhere with its devices. Now it only needs to extract more money from their daily usage.Seeking recurrent revenueBack in March 2022, Bloomberg reported that Apple is working on a hardware subscription service for the iPhone which would not be equal to the full price split over 24 months, but that would really offer a new way of becoming an iPhone user. However, while this news is promising, we don't have enough data to make a forecast of the positive impact if will have on Apple.Things are different if we look at the current services. Back in 2016, the average Apple user was estimated to pay $1 per day for hardware and services. According to Katy Huberty, an Apple analyst, at present the average user spends $280 each year on Apple hardware and an additional $69 on services. It is also widely believed that there are about 1 billion Apple users who can give Apple recurring sales income as they adopt new service subscriptions.According to the analyst Woodring, Apple users will spend in a few years $2 per day on Apple products or services, a figure already achieved by US iPhone owners. This means that Apple will see a daily revenue of $2 billion, which leads to an annual revenue of $730 billion, which is twice the size of the revenue Apple reported in 2021. It can be reasonable to expect that as the hardware subscription service kicks off, the program will boost the adoption of Apple's first-party services, such as Music, iCloud, etc. This should have a positive impact on services growth but it should also diminish the company’s dependence on App Store sales. In fact, around 30% of Apple’s current services revenue comes from here. The more Apple sells its first-hand services, the larger the chunk of profits it can retain. However, third party apps are indeed a very profitable business, as Apple has very low costs to earn this revenue since it just needs to make its app store available.So far, we know that at the end of fiscal year 2021, Apple users had 785 million paid subscriptions across Apple’s first and third-party services. With a reasonable forecast of $76 billion revenue from services in 2022, Apple will reach a 235% growth from the $32.7 billion services revenue reported in 2017, the year when Apple started reporting its net sales with the breakdown between products and services. In the same time span, revenue from products increased 160% from $196.5 billion to the expected $315.9 billion at the end of fiscal year 2022. This growth is shown in the graph below where we see the annual sales split up in products and services.Author with data from Apple's Annual ReportsHowever, the importance of this graph is not only to highlight the growing chunk of the services revenue, but also to show that as services revenue grows, so does the gross margin. Currently, services account for about 20% of the total revenues, but the impact they have on margins is becoming more and more meaningful. In fact, the cost of services is decreasing as a percentage of total costs, moving from 10.43% in 2017 to 9.24% in 2022. In addition, and even more importantly, the gross margin Apple obtains from the services revenue is moving up from 55% in 2017 to around 72.5% at the end of FY22, as shown below. During the same period of time, the gross margin of the products revenue has seen actually a compression or around 2 pps.Author, with data from Apple's Annual ReportsNonetheless, even if the products gross margin shrunk, the increase in services gross margin, even if it has an impact on only 20% of total revenues, has been so meaningful to drag upwards the total gross margin of Apple that moved up from 38.5% in 2017 to almost 42% at the end of last year, with a forecast for this fiscal year to be still around this level.So, why can Apple afford not to raise prices this year? For sure, part of is a marketing expense that wants to make customers perceive the iPhone as somewhat in reach in an inflationary environment where everything costs more. But, the impact on the revenue will not be as great as we may expect because Apple knows that it is monetizing better all its users. Therefore, Apple knows that even though purchase price of the iPhones remains the same, the company is extracting more money from a device compared to what it was able to do just a year ago.In fact, if we divide last year's services revenue by Apple's users we see that in 2021 every user spent around $68 in annual services (keep in mind that the $2 per day reported above takes into account products and services together). This year Apple should see at least an 11.7% growth to $76 annual services revenue per user. Clearly, the annual services revenue per user is meaningful.We can also look at this revenue from another point of view to understand the possible growth for this segment. During the last earnings call,Tim Cook reported thatWe now have more than 860 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, which is up more than 160 million during the last 12 months alone.If we divide the $76.8 billion services revenue by the 860 million paid subscription we get that the revenue per subscription is $89, which proves once more that Apple knows it has room to turn more users into paying subscribers.In any case, this services growth is enough to offset the current inflation rate, which, as many believe, is set to come down during 2023, where services should have at least a 21% weight on total revenues. Thus, even if the products revenue stays flat (and this would be somewhat of a surprise given the fact that the premium segment is growing), we would have a fifth of total revenues bump up another 10-13%, with a very low cost of sales. The impact on the revenue might still be just around 2%, however the impact on the gross margin will be already more tangible, lifting it up above 42% thus leading Apple to new record profits.To this strategy, we could also add that Apple is developing its direct to consumer sales through its e-commerce. Some estimates show that around 15% of iPhone shipments, 30% of Mac/iPads, and 20-25% of Wearables (AirPods and Apple Watch) are sold directly through this channel which brings Apple to enjoy more margins while decreasing sales costs.We mentioned briefly that Apple could also a FX problem. While I think the company may expect a little weakening of the dollar, given the point it has reached this year, I think that the fact the company didn't raise prices show how much Apple relies on the shift towards services revenue.ConclusionThe first stock I invested in was Apple. At that time I didn't know how to read financial statements, nor did I have any particular experience of investing other than having heard a few ideas from my father who had been doing it. But I was sure of the brand. Alas, when I saw a 40% gain I sold my single share and I used the dividends received meanwhile to go drink a coffee. Had I kept that share, now I would have much more. However, the more I developed a passion for investing, the more I returned to Apple and started noticing that the company is not idle nor just sits on its earned status. I keep on seeing a company that becomes more profitable and that is actually set to have a moat no other subscription company has ever enjoyed with the combination of hardware devices that produce recurrent revenue. Financials are important and I always look at them, but in Apple's case (as in many others) it is important to understand the driving force behind these numbers in order to understand how a business can fare in the future. I think Apple is yet to deliver good and improving results as it leverages its moat and this is why I keep on rating it a buy.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":46,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9993487150,"gmtCreate":1660715934472,"gmtModify":1676536385946,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Great]&nbsp;","listText":"[Great]&nbsp;","text":"[Great]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9993487150","repostId":"1107258045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107258045","pubTimestamp":1660716487,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1107258045?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-17 14:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited: Is It Cheap Enough?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107258045","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"SummarySea Limited reported second quarter results but investors were disappointed and punished the ","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Sea Limited reported second quarter results but investors were disappointed and punished the stock during the following trading day.</li><li>When looking at the results, we can see signs of the business struggling already and the looming recession is adding another risk to the business.</li><li>It is difficult to determine an intrinsic value for Sea Limited, but the stock could be undervalued right now and might be a speculative bet.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a963b30c4a818dfcf6148d33a7d6eaae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>bunhill</span></p><p>My last article about Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) was published in February 2022 when the stock was trading around $140, and I rated the stock as a hold. Since then, the stock declined more than 35% (and was trading even lower inthe meantime) and as Sea Limited was already declining before my last article it is now trading about 75% below its all-time high the stock reached in the fall of 2021.</p><p>The quarterly earnings results are a good opportunity to take a closer look at Sea Limited again and ask the question if the stock is now cheap enough and a good investment. We start by looking at the quarterly results.</p><p><b>Quarterly Results</b></p><p>On Tuesday, Sea Limited reported second quarter results for fiscal 2022. And while the company could slightly beat earnings per share estimates, it slightly missed revenue expectations. When turning away from analysts’ estimates and look at the hard numbers we can see sales increasing 29.0% year-over-year from $2,281 million in the same quarter last year to $2,943 million this quarter. The rather negative point of view might be growth slowing down over the last few quarters as revenue growth was 64% one quarter ago and 106% two quarters earlier. However, we must keep the macro-economic environment in mind and several other technology companies have troubles growing at all these days.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b36a47b7e0494c88aec4f60add1163b4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>When looking at the three different segments we see extremely mixed results. Revenue for “Digital Entertainment” declined from $1,024 million in the same quarter last year to $900 million this quarter – resulting in 12.1% year-over-year decline. And “sales of goods” could increase revenue from $257 million in Q2/21 to $287 million in Q2/22 – resulting in 11.7% YoY growth. The biggest part of growth (in absolute and relative numbers) stemmed from “E-commerce and other services” which could grow 75.6% year-over-year from $1,000 million in Q2/21 to $1,756 million in Q2/22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4e50c54d34ff1ca86adbe13b84de2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>While Sea Limited is still able to grow its top line with a solid pace, the increasing costs have a huge negative impact on the operating income (or rather: operating loss) as well as the bottom line. Expenses for sales and marketing were more or less the same (compared to the same quarter last year) but costs of revenue increased with a higher pace than revenue. And especially general &amp; administrative expenses (+96% YoY) as well as research and development expenses (+115% YoY) increased quite a lot.</p><p>As a result, operating loss increased from a loss of $334 million in the same quarter last year to $837 million this quarter and net losses per share increased from $0.61 in Q2/21 to $1.03 in Q2/22.</p><p>And finally, Sea Limited also suspended its e-commerce guidance and although there seems to be a logical explanation, I would see this move as a rather bad sign. In its earnings release, the company is stating:</p><blockquote>In our efforts to adapt to increasing macro uncertainties, we are proactively shifting our strategies to further focus on efficiency and optimization for the long-term strength and profitability of the e-commerce business. Given this strategic shift, we will be suspending e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for the full year 2022.</blockquote><p><b>Light and Shadow</b></p><p>When looking at the e-commerce segment we see solid growth rates for Sea Limited. Year-over-year the number of gross orders increased 42% to 2.0 billion and gross merchandise volume also increased in the same timeframe, but only 27%.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04efc4f6c6fdc4547ec2d87affe5352a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>Aside from e-commerce, digital financial services are also growing. Quarterly active users are growing 53% year-over-year to 52.7 million and the total payment volume for mobile wallet was increasing 36% year-over-year to $5.7 billion.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/798fa51a2c7f971c127efeeb28e5595d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>In both cases we are seeing solid growth rates, but the number of orders and quarterly active users is growing with a higher pace than gross merchandise/payment volume and this could be interpreted as small warning sign. Active customers are obviously spending less money. This could have several different reasons but could be a first hint for the economy slowing down.</p><p>And when looking at digital entertainment, the picture is becoming murkier. While digital entertainment certainly has a large global user base, we cannot ignore the negative trends over the last few quarters. Not only are quarterly active users declining from 725.2 million one year ago to 619.3 million right now (15% YoY decline), but quarterly paying users declined even 39% YoY from 92.2 million in Q2/21 to 56.1 million in Q2/22.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94ec45c6f2c60c8479c296ae35bef6a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>Sea Limited is explaining the decrease in revenue due to the softening of bookings post-COVID. However, the increase of quarterly paying users between Q2/20 and Q2/21 was almost completely erased. Quarterly paying users increased only with a CAGR of 6% in the last two years – from 49.9 million in Q2/20 to 56.1 million in Q2/22. And so far, digital entertainment is the only segment for Sea Limited which is profitable and with sales and operating income declining this is especially problematic as Sea Limited is using the cash to fund its other business segments.</p><p><b>Recession as Headwind</b></p><p>The looming recession was mentioned countless times in the last few months (by many analysts and contributors including myself). We are seeing growth rates slowing down for many businesses – recently I wrote about Meta Platforms (META) which had to report declining revenue for the first time ever – and Sea Limited is no exception (as we already saw above). And if the recession will hit the world, growth rates might slow down even more. Sea Limited is depending on entertainment, games as well as retail/e-commerce. And these are all segments that are usually affected by a recession. People usually purchase less goods in case of a recession as the disposable income will decline. Rising interest rates will also force people to choose more wisely where to spend money. And spendings for games as well as entertainment are probably not considered essential by most people and might be among the first victims when expenses must be cut.</p><p>Of course, Sea Limited is very active in the Southeast Asia region and while I am pretty sure the United States and many European countries will be in a recession in 2023, I don’t know enough about that region to make reasonable predictions. I am just assuming the next recession being a global and brutal one and therefore affecting most countries and companies around the world.</p><p><b>Problems: Lacking Profitability and Dilution</b></p><p>One problem I see with investing in Sea Limited right now is the lacking profitability of the business. I know Sea Limited is still a rather young company (founded 13 years ago) and it is not untypical for young companies to be not profitable yet – especially if management is still focused on growing with a high pace and sacrificing profitability for high revenue growth. And it seems to be working as Sea Limited is still growing with an extremely high pace compared to other competitors. And the balance sheet (we will get to this) is allowing Sea Limited to be not profitable yet and focus on growth while still burning cash for a few more years.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eed9e10e9d9d00e449ddc1b7e0df9db5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"802\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SE Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) data by YCharts</span></p><p>Sea Limited is also increasing the number of outstanding shares constantly – another aspect I don’t like to see as potential investors. I don’t want to see my stake in the company diluted over time. Nevertheless, Sea Limited is increasing the number of outstanding shares with a high pace in the last few quarters, and we must assume the business will continue to do so in the quarters to come.</p><p><b>Balance Sheet</b></p><p>Sea Limited is continuing to dilute is shares, which is not a good sign for investors as it is lowering the profit for each investor when the number of outstanding shares is continuously increasing. However, it is good to know that Sea Limited doesn’t have to issue additional shares to raise capital as the balance sheet is solid (when management is continuing to dilute it is happening for different reasons).</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b9f1c402d80e51be966f2ec26fc672\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Sea Limited Q2/22 Presentation</span></p><p>In the last few quarters, cash and cash equivalents as well as short-term investments declined from $11.8 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2021 to about $7.8 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2022. Nevertheless, on June 30, 2022, the company still had $6,493 million in cash and cash equivalents and $1,288 million in short-term investments on its balance sheet and no short- or long-term debt. And as Sea Limited will probably not be profitable in the next few quarters (and most likely not generate free cash flow) it is good to know that the business won’t have to rely on additional cash.</p><p><b>Intrinsic Value Calculation</b></p><p>Sea Limited is still not profitable, which is making it rather difficult to look at simple valuation metrics – with free cash flow as well as earnings per share being negative in the last four quarters, we can’t neither calculate a P/FCF ratio nor a P/E ratio. Instead, we can look at the price-sales ratio and since my last article in February 2022, the price-sales ratio continued to decline further. Right now, Sea Limited is trading for 4.4 times sales.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14542e22f7c95a056cfb343d98340c5c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>SE PS Ratio data by YCharts</span></p><p>And it might be helpful to offer some perspective to interpret that price-sales ratio. Of the four companies presented above, Sea Limited has the highest price-sales ratio, but aside from Alibaba (BABA), which is trading for only 1.9 times sales, the other three companies have almost similar P/S ratios. Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) is trading for 4.3 times sales and Meta Platforms is trading for 4.2 times sales.</p><p>And these three companies – Alibaba, Tencent and Meta Platforms – are all stocks I consider undervalued right now. The fact, that two of them are trading for a similar P/S ratio as Sea Limited although Sea Limited can grow at a much higher pace might imply that Sea Limited is rather cheap right now.</p><p>Of course, Sea Limited must become profitable in a similar way as these businesses to make P/S ratios comparable. And so far, Sea Limited is struggling to be profitable, but as we are talking about similar business models, I think Sea Limited can become profitable in a similar way. The company is trying to grow with a high pace and take market shares – like most of these technology companies did in the early days.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Following earnings, Sea Limited seems to be taking a big hit and the stock declined almost 14% on Tuesday as investors are obviously not satisfied with the news. And at $75 the stock might be worth a shot, and I would describe myself as slightly bullish. Ray Dalio and his hedge fund Bridgewater also invested recently in Sea Limited (and sold the stakes in the Chinese companies Alibaba and JD.com (JD)).</p><p>Although Sea Limited might be undervalued at this point, we should not ignore that a bear market and recession is most likely still upon us. I expect the next few years to be rather challenging for stocks and when the recession will hit the economy earnings per share will decline and many stocks will go much lower. Despite an already 75% decline for Sea Limited, the stock could go lower. When remembering the Dotcom bubble and stocks declining 90% or 95%, we get a feeling how low technology stocks could go.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited: Is It Cheap Enough?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited: Is It Cheap Enough?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-17 14:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535070-sea-limited-is-it-cheap-enough?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummarySea Limited reported second quarter results but investors were disappointed and punished the stock during the following trading day.When looking at the results, we can see signs of the business...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535070-sea-limited-is-it-cheap-enough?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4535070-sea-limited-is-it-cheap-enough?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1107258045","content_text":"SummarySea Limited reported second quarter results but investors were disappointed and punished the stock during the following trading day.When looking at the results, we can see signs of the business struggling already and the looming recession is adding another risk to the business.It is difficult to determine an intrinsic value for Sea Limited, but the stock could be undervalued right now and might be a speculative bet.bunhillMy last article about Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) was published in February 2022 when the stock was trading around $140, and I rated the stock as a hold. Since then, the stock declined more than 35% (and was trading even lower inthe meantime) and as Sea Limited was already declining before my last article it is now trading about 75% below its all-time high the stock reached in the fall of 2021.The quarterly earnings results are a good opportunity to take a closer look at Sea Limited again and ask the question if the stock is now cheap enough and a good investment. We start by looking at the quarterly results.Quarterly ResultsOn Tuesday, Sea Limited reported second quarter results for fiscal 2022. And while the company could slightly beat earnings per share estimates, it slightly missed revenue expectations. When turning away from analysts’ estimates and look at the hard numbers we can see sales increasing 29.0% year-over-year from $2,281 million in the same quarter last year to $2,943 million this quarter. The rather negative point of view might be growth slowing down over the last few quarters as revenue growth was 64% one quarter ago and 106% two quarters earlier. However, we must keep the macro-economic environment in mind and several other technology companies have troubles growing at all these days.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationWhen looking at the three different segments we see extremely mixed results. Revenue for “Digital Entertainment” declined from $1,024 million in the same quarter last year to $900 million this quarter – resulting in 12.1% year-over-year decline. And “sales of goods” could increase revenue from $257 million in Q2/21 to $287 million in Q2/22 – resulting in 11.7% YoY growth. The biggest part of growth (in absolute and relative numbers) stemmed from “E-commerce and other services” which could grow 75.6% year-over-year from $1,000 million in Q2/21 to $1,756 million in Q2/22.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationWhile Sea Limited is still able to grow its top line with a solid pace, the increasing costs have a huge negative impact on the operating income (or rather: operating loss) as well as the bottom line. Expenses for sales and marketing were more or less the same (compared to the same quarter last year) but costs of revenue increased with a higher pace than revenue. And especially general & administrative expenses (+96% YoY) as well as research and development expenses (+115% YoY) increased quite a lot.As a result, operating loss increased from a loss of $334 million in the same quarter last year to $837 million this quarter and net losses per share increased from $0.61 in Q2/21 to $1.03 in Q2/22.And finally, Sea Limited also suspended its e-commerce guidance and although there seems to be a logical explanation, I would see this move as a rather bad sign. In its earnings release, the company is stating:In our efforts to adapt to increasing macro uncertainties, we are proactively shifting our strategies to further focus on efficiency and optimization for the long-term strength and profitability of the e-commerce business. Given this strategic shift, we will be suspending e-commerce GAAP revenue guidance for the full year 2022.Light and ShadowWhen looking at the e-commerce segment we see solid growth rates for Sea Limited. Year-over-year the number of gross orders increased 42% to 2.0 billion and gross merchandise volume also increased in the same timeframe, but only 27%.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationAside from e-commerce, digital financial services are also growing. Quarterly active users are growing 53% year-over-year to 52.7 million and the total payment volume for mobile wallet was increasing 36% year-over-year to $5.7 billion.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationIn both cases we are seeing solid growth rates, but the number of orders and quarterly active users is growing with a higher pace than gross merchandise/payment volume and this could be interpreted as small warning sign. Active customers are obviously spending less money. This could have several different reasons but could be a first hint for the economy slowing down.And when looking at digital entertainment, the picture is becoming murkier. While digital entertainment certainly has a large global user base, we cannot ignore the negative trends over the last few quarters. Not only are quarterly active users declining from 725.2 million one year ago to 619.3 million right now (15% YoY decline), but quarterly paying users declined even 39% YoY from 92.2 million in Q2/21 to 56.1 million in Q2/22.Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationSea Limited is explaining the decrease in revenue due to the softening of bookings post-COVID. However, the increase of quarterly paying users between Q2/20 and Q2/21 was almost completely erased. Quarterly paying users increased only with a CAGR of 6% in the last two years – from 49.9 million in Q2/20 to 56.1 million in Q2/22. And so far, digital entertainment is the only segment for Sea Limited which is profitable and with sales and operating income declining this is especially problematic as Sea Limited is using the cash to fund its other business segments.Recession as HeadwindThe looming recession was mentioned countless times in the last few months (by many analysts and contributors including myself). We are seeing growth rates slowing down for many businesses – recently I wrote about Meta Platforms (META) which had to report declining revenue for the first time ever – and Sea Limited is no exception (as we already saw above). And if the recession will hit the world, growth rates might slow down even more. Sea Limited is depending on entertainment, games as well as retail/e-commerce. And these are all segments that are usually affected by a recession. People usually purchase less goods in case of a recession as the disposable income will decline. Rising interest rates will also force people to choose more wisely where to spend money. And spendings for games as well as entertainment are probably not considered essential by most people and might be among the first victims when expenses must be cut.Of course, Sea Limited is very active in the Southeast Asia region and while I am pretty sure the United States and many European countries will be in a recession in 2023, I don’t know enough about that region to make reasonable predictions. I am just assuming the next recession being a global and brutal one and therefore affecting most countries and companies around the world.Problems: Lacking Profitability and DilutionOne problem I see with investing in Sea Limited right now is the lacking profitability of the business. I know Sea Limited is still a rather young company (founded 13 years ago) and it is not untypical for young companies to be not profitable yet – especially if management is still focused on growing with a high pace and sacrificing profitability for high revenue growth. And it seems to be working as Sea Limited is still growing with an extremely high pace compared to other competitors. And the balance sheet (we will get to this) is allowing Sea Limited to be not profitable yet and focus on growth while still burning cash for a few more years.SE Average Diluted Shares Outstanding (Quarterly) data by YChartsSea Limited is also increasing the number of outstanding shares constantly – another aspect I don’t like to see as potential investors. I don’t want to see my stake in the company diluted over time. Nevertheless, Sea Limited is increasing the number of outstanding shares with a high pace in the last few quarters, and we must assume the business will continue to do so in the quarters to come.Balance SheetSea Limited is continuing to dilute is shares, which is not a good sign for investors as it is lowering the profit for each investor when the number of outstanding shares is continuously increasing. However, it is good to know that Sea Limited doesn’t have to issue additional shares to raise capital as the balance sheet is solid (when management is continuing to dilute it is happening for different reasons).Sea Limited Q2/22 PresentationIn the last few quarters, cash and cash equivalents as well as short-term investments declined from $11.8 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2021 to about $7.8 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2022. Nevertheless, on June 30, 2022, the company still had $6,493 million in cash and cash equivalents and $1,288 million in short-term investments on its balance sheet and no short- or long-term debt. And as Sea Limited will probably not be profitable in the next few quarters (and most likely not generate free cash flow) it is good to know that the business won’t have to rely on additional cash.Intrinsic Value CalculationSea Limited is still not profitable, which is making it rather difficult to look at simple valuation metrics – with free cash flow as well as earnings per share being negative in the last four quarters, we can’t neither calculate a P/FCF ratio nor a P/E ratio. Instead, we can look at the price-sales ratio and since my last article in February 2022, the price-sales ratio continued to decline further. Right now, Sea Limited is trading for 4.4 times sales.SE PS Ratio data by YChartsAnd it might be helpful to offer some perspective to interpret that price-sales ratio. Of the four companies presented above, Sea Limited has the highest price-sales ratio, but aside from Alibaba (BABA), which is trading for only 1.9 times sales, the other three companies have almost similar P/S ratios. Tencent (OTCPK:TCEHY) is trading for 4.3 times sales and Meta Platforms is trading for 4.2 times sales.And these three companies – Alibaba, Tencent and Meta Platforms – are all stocks I consider undervalued right now. The fact, that two of them are trading for a similar P/S ratio as Sea Limited although Sea Limited can grow at a much higher pace might imply that Sea Limited is rather cheap right now.Of course, Sea Limited must become profitable in a similar way as these businesses to make P/S ratios comparable. And so far, Sea Limited is struggling to be profitable, but as we are talking about similar business models, I think Sea Limited can become profitable in a similar way. The company is trying to grow with a high pace and take market shares – like most of these technology companies did in the early days.ConclusionFollowing earnings, Sea Limited seems to be taking a big hit and the stock declined almost 14% on Tuesday as investors are obviously not satisfied with the news. And at $75 the stock might be worth a shot, and I would describe myself as slightly bullish. Ray Dalio and his hedge fund Bridgewater also invested recently in Sea Limited (and sold the stakes in the Chinese companies Alibaba and JD.com (JD)).Although Sea Limited might be undervalued at this point, we should not ignore that a bear market and recession is most likely still upon us. I expect the next few years to be rather challenging for stocks and when the recession will hit the economy earnings per share will decline and many stocks will go much lower. Despite an already 75% decline for Sea Limited, the stock could go lower. When remembering the Dotcom bubble and stocks declining 90% or 95%, we get a feeling how low technology stocks could go.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9029211775,"gmtCreate":1652784916797,"gmtModify":1676535160746,"author":{"id":"3586065449223644","authorId":"3586065449223644","name":"MAH18","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c81dd1d5459e57c05fc7d4d6e0c62c6","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586065449223644","idStr":"3586065449223644"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Silence]&nbsp;","listText":"[Silence]&nbsp;","text":"[Silence]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9029211775","repostId":"2236212404","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2236212404","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1652783482,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2236212404?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-05-17 18:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Shopee-Owner Sea Tops Revenue Estimates on E-Commerce Strength","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2236212404","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Singapore-based Sea Ltd beat first-quarter revenue estimates on Tuesday, driven by improvements in i","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Singapore-based Sea Ltd beat first-quarter revenue estimates on Tuesday, driven by improvements in its core e-commerce business in South East Asia and Latin America, sending its shares up 2.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/889c3f4f611aeb9c2b7d2c03e8314c5f\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The New York-listed company said total revenue in the first quarter of 2022 rose 64.4% to $2.9 billion, above analysts&#39; estimate of $2.76 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>Sea, which saw a meteoric rise in business in 2020 and into 2021, has been realigning its business in the international markets following slowing sales and regulatory challenges.</p><p>The company widened its full-year 2022 e-commerce revenue outlook range to between $8.5 billion and $9.1 billion, compared with $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion forecast earlier.</p><p><b>First Quarter 2022 Highlights</b></p><p>▪ <b>Group</b></p><p>o Total GAAP revenue was US$2.9 billion, up 64.4% year-on-year.</p><p>o Total gross profit was US$1.2 billion, up 81.3% year-on-year.</p><p>o Total net loss was US$(580.1) million compared to US$(422.1) million for the first quarter of 2021. Total net loss excluding share-based compensation was US$(445.1) million compared to US$(320.0) million for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Total adjusted EBITDA1 was US$(509.9) million compared to US$88.1 million for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>▪ <b>E-commerce </b></p><p>o GAAP revenue was US$1.5 billion, up 64.4% year-on-year.</p><p>o GAAP revenue included US$1.3 billion of GAAP marketplace revenue2 , up 75.3% year-on-year, and US$0.3 billion of GAAP product revenue2 , up 26.8% year-onyear. GAAP revenue and GAAP marketplace revenue as % of total gross merchandise value (“GMV”) increased from 7.3% and 5.7% a year ago to 8.7% and 7.2%, respectively.</p><p>o Gross orders totaled 1.9 billion, an increase of 71.3% year-on-year.</p><p>o GMV was US$17.4 billion, an increase of 38.7% year-on-year.</p><p>o Gross profit margin for e-commerce improved year-on-year as the company have seen faster growth of transaction-based fees and advertising income, which have higher profit margin compared to revenue generated from other value-added services. At the same time, gross profit margin of revenue generated from other value-added services also improved quarter-on-quarter.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA1 loss per order before headquarters’ common expenses (“HQ costs”) improved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter for Shopee overall. Shopee is on track to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA before allocation of HQ costs in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year as Sea shared previously. In Southeast Asia and Taiwan, such loss was 4 cents in the first quarter of 2022, a more than 70% improvement from 12 cents for the same period in 2021.</p><p>o In Brazil, such loss also improved by more than 45% year-on-year to US$1.52 in the first quarter of 202the2.</p><p>o After HQ costs allocation, the company currently expect Shopee to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by the end of next year.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA for Shopee overall was US$(742.8) million compared to US$(412.9) million for the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA loss per order was US$0.40 in the first quarter of 2022, compared to US$0.38 for the same period in 2021, which was mainly attributable to HQ costs increase.</p><p>▪ HQ costs increased by US$162.1 million year-on-year, which accounted for close to 50% of the total year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA loss. HQ costs consisted mainly of staff cost, general and administrative expenses such as building facilities and server hosting expenses.</p><p>▪ The increase in HQ costs was mostly attributable to staff cost increase, which grew by US$113.3 million. This was mainly because of headcount increase, and in particular, research and development staff increase, which cost grew by US$86.0 million, as Sea invested in our technological capabilities and expanded our service offerings.</p><p>o In Southeast Asia and in Taiwan respectively, Shopee continued to rank first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in app for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>o In Indonesia, where Shopee is the largest e-commerce platform, gross orders grew by around 77% year-on-year. Shopee also continued to rank first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in app for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>o Shopee Brazil continued to rank first in the Shopping category by downloads and total time spent in app and second by average monthly active users for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. Shopee Brazil also ranked first in the Shopping category by monthly active users in March and April 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>o Globally, Shopee was the top ranked app in the Shopping category by downloads in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. In the same category, for Google Play, Shopee also ranked first globally by total time spent in app and second by average monthly active users in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>▪ <b>Digital Entertainment </b></p><p>o GAAP revenue was US$1.1 billion, up 45.3% year-on-year.</p><p>o Bookings4 were US$0.8 billion, compared to US$ 1.1 billion for the first quarter of 2021. This represents compounded annual growth of 27% from the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA1 was US$431.4 million, compared to US$717.3 million for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA represented 52.2% of bookings for the first quarter of 2022, compared to 64.4% for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Quarterly active users were 615.9 million, compared to 648.8 million for the first quarter of 2021. This represents compounded annual growth of almost 24% from the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>o Quarterly paying users were 61.4 million, representing paying user ratio of 10.0% for the first quarter compared to 12.3% for the same period in 2021. Meanwhile, this represents increase from paying user ratio of 8.9% in the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>o Average bookings per user were US$1.3, compared to US$1.7 for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Our self-developed global hit game, Free Fire, continued to maintain top global rankings in user and grossing metrics. It remained the most downloaded mobile game globally in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. In the same category, for Google Play, Free Fire also ranked third globally by average monthly active users in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>o Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia and Latin America for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. Free Fire has maintained this leading position for the past 11 consecutive quarters in Southeast Asia and in Latin America.</p><p>o In the United States, Free Fire was the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for 5 consecutive quarters for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>▪<b> Digital Financial Services </b></p><p>o GAAP revenue was US$236.0 million, up 359.9% year-on-year.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA1 was US$(124.9) million, compared to US$(153.1) million for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Quarterly active users5 across our SeaMoney products and services reached 49.0 million, up 78.2% year-on-year.</p><p>o In Indonesia, which has the most comprehensive set of products and services among our markets, over 30% of the quarterly active users have used multiple SeaMoney products or services in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>o Total payment volume for the mobile wallet was US$5.1 billion, up 48.5% yearon-year.</p><p>o In April, application for digital bank license by a consortium led by Sea and YTL Digital Capital Sdn Bhd. was approved by the Minister of Finance Malaysia.</p><p><b>Full Year 2022 Guidance Update </b></p><p>Given the elevated macro uncertainties, Sea now see a wider dispersion of potential scenarios for Shopee for the full year of 2022 and hence are revising itse-commerce guidance to correspondingly reflect this view. The company now expect GAAP revenue for e-commerce to be between US$8.5 billion and US$9.1 billion, representing 71.8% growth from 2021 at the midpoint of the broader guidance, compared to the previous guidance of between US$8.9 billion and US$9.1 billion.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Shopee-Owner Sea Tops Revenue Estimates on E-Commerce Strength</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShopee-Owner Sea Tops Revenue Estimates on E-Commerce Strength\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-05-17 18:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Singapore-based Sea Ltd beat first-quarter revenue estimates on Tuesday, driven by improvements in its core e-commerce business in South East Asia and Latin America, sending its shares up 2.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/889c3f4f611aeb9c2b7d2c03e8314c5f\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The New York-listed company said total revenue in the first quarter of 2022 rose 64.4% to $2.9 billion, above analysts&#39; estimate of $2.76 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.</p><p>Sea, which saw a meteoric rise in business in 2020 and into 2021, has been realigning its business in the international markets following slowing sales and regulatory challenges.</p><p>The company widened its full-year 2022 e-commerce revenue outlook range to between $8.5 billion and $9.1 billion, compared with $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion forecast earlier.</p><p><b>First Quarter 2022 Highlights</b></p><p>▪ <b>Group</b></p><p>o Total GAAP revenue was US$2.9 billion, up 64.4% year-on-year.</p><p>o Total gross profit was US$1.2 billion, up 81.3% year-on-year.</p><p>o Total net loss was US$(580.1) million compared to US$(422.1) million for the first quarter of 2021. Total net loss excluding share-based compensation was US$(445.1) million compared to US$(320.0) million for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Total adjusted EBITDA1 was US$(509.9) million compared to US$88.1 million for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>▪ <b>E-commerce </b></p><p>o GAAP revenue was US$1.5 billion, up 64.4% year-on-year.</p><p>o GAAP revenue included US$1.3 billion of GAAP marketplace revenue2 , up 75.3% year-on-year, and US$0.3 billion of GAAP product revenue2 , up 26.8% year-onyear. GAAP revenue and GAAP marketplace revenue as % of total gross merchandise value (“GMV”) increased from 7.3% and 5.7% a year ago to 8.7% and 7.2%, respectively.</p><p>o Gross orders totaled 1.9 billion, an increase of 71.3% year-on-year.</p><p>o GMV was US$17.4 billion, an increase of 38.7% year-on-year.</p><p>o Gross profit margin for e-commerce improved year-on-year as the company have seen faster growth of transaction-based fees and advertising income, which have higher profit margin compared to revenue generated from other value-added services. At the same time, gross profit margin of revenue generated from other value-added services also improved quarter-on-quarter.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA1 loss per order before headquarters’ common expenses (“HQ costs”) improved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter for Shopee overall. Shopee is on track to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA before allocation of HQ costs in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year as Sea shared previously. In Southeast Asia and Taiwan, such loss was 4 cents in the first quarter of 2022, a more than 70% improvement from 12 cents for the same period in 2021.</p><p>o In Brazil, such loss also improved by more than 45% year-on-year to US$1.52 in the first quarter of 202the2.</p><p>o After HQ costs allocation, the company currently expect Shopee to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by the end of next year.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA for Shopee overall was US$(742.8) million compared to US$(412.9) million for the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA loss per order was US$0.40 in the first quarter of 2022, compared to US$0.38 for the same period in 2021, which was mainly attributable to HQ costs increase.</p><p>▪ HQ costs increased by US$162.1 million year-on-year, which accounted for close to 50% of the total year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA loss. HQ costs consisted mainly of staff cost, general and administrative expenses such as building facilities and server hosting expenses.</p><p>▪ The increase in HQ costs was mostly attributable to staff cost increase, which grew by US$113.3 million. This was mainly because of headcount increase, and in particular, research and development staff increase, which cost grew by US$86.0 million, as Sea invested in our technological capabilities and expanded our service offerings.</p><p>o In Southeast Asia and in Taiwan respectively, Shopee continued to rank first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in app for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>o In Indonesia, where Shopee is the largest e-commerce platform, gross orders grew by around 77% year-on-year. Shopee also continued to rank first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in app for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>o Shopee Brazil continued to rank first in the Shopping category by downloads and total time spent in app and second by average monthly active users for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. Shopee Brazil also ranked first in the Shopping category by monthly active users in March and April 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>o Globally, Shopee was the top ranked app in the Shopping category by downloads in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. In the same category, for Google Play, Shopee also ranked first globally by total time spent in app and second by average monthly active users in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>▪ <b>Digital Entertainment </b></p><p>o GAAP revenue was US$1.1 billion, up 45.3% year-on-year.</p><p>o Bookings4 were US$0.8 billion, compared to US$ 1.1 billion for the first quarter of 2021. This represents compounded annual growth of 27% from the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA1 was US$431.4 million, compared to US$717.3 million for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA represented 52.2% of bookings for the first quarter of 2022, compared to 64.4% for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Quarterly active users were 615.9 million, compared to 648.8 million for the first quarter of 2021. This represents compounded annual growth of almost 24% from the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>o Quarterly paying users were 61.4 million, representing paying user ratio of 10.0% for the first quarter compared to 12.3% for the same period in 2021. Meanwhile, this represents increase from paying user ratio of 8.9% in the first quarter of 2020.</p><p>o Average bookings per user were US$1.3, compared to US$1.7 for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Our self-developed global hit game, Free Fire, continued to maintain top global rankings in user and grossing metrics. It remained the most downloaded mobile game globally in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. In the same category, for Google Play, Free Fire also ranked third globally by average monthly active users in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>o Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia and Latin America for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. Free Fire has maintained this leading position for the past 11 consecutive quarters in Southeast Asia and in Latin America.</p><p>o In the United States, Free Fire was the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for 5 consecutive quarters for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.</p><p>▪<b> Digital Financial Services </b></p><p>o GAAP revenue was US$236.0 million, up 359.9% year-on-year.</p><p>o Adjusted EBITDA1 was US$(124.9) million, compared to US$(153.1) million for the first quarter of 2021.</p><p>o Quarterly active users5 across our SeaMoney products and services reached 49.0 million, up 78.2% year-on-year.</p><p>o In Indonesia, which has the most comprehensive set of products and services among our markets, over 30% of the quarterly active users have used multiple SeaMoney products or services in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p>o Total payment volume for the mobile wallet was US$5.1 billion, up 48.5% yearon-year.</p><p>o In April, application for digital bank license by a consortium led by Sea and YTL Digital Capital Sdn Bhd. was approved by the Minister of Finance Malaysia.</p><p><b>Full Year 2022 Guidance Update </b></p><p>Given the elevated macro uncertainties, Sea now see a wider dispersion of potential scenarios for Shopee for the full year of 2022 and hence are revising itse-commerce guidance to correspondingly reflect this view. The company now expect GAAP revenue for e-commerce to be between US$8.5 billion and US$9.1 billion, representing 71.8% growth from 2021 at the midpoint of the broader guidance, compared to the previous guidance of between US$8.9 billion and US$9.1 billion.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2236212404","content_text":"Singapore-based Sea Ltd beat first-quarter revenue estimates on Tuesday, driven by improvements in its core e-commerce business in South East Asia and Latin America, sending its shares up 2.5%.The New York-listed company said total revenue in the first quarter of 2022 rose 64.4% to $2.9 billion, above analysts' estimate of $2.76 billion, according to Refinitiv IBES data.Sea, which saw a meteoric rise in business in 2020 and into 2021, has been realigning its business in the international markets following slowing sales and regulatory challenges.The company widened its full-year 2022 e-commerce revenue outlook range to between $8.5 billion and $9.1 billion, compared with $8.9 billion to $9.1 billion forecast earlier.First Quarter 2022 Highlights▪ Groupo Total GAAP revenue was US$2.9 billion, up 64.4% year-on-year.o Total gross profit was US$1.2 billion, up 81.3% year-on-year.o Total net loss was US$(580.1) million compared to US$(422.1) million for the first quarter of 2021. Total net loss excluding share-based compensation was US$(445.1) million compared to US$(320.0) million for the first quarter of 2021.o Total adjusted EBITDA1 was US$(509.9) million compared to US$88.1 million for the first quarter of 2021.▪ E-commerce o GAAP revenue was US$1.5 billion, up 64.4% year-on-year.o GAAP revenue included US$1.3 billion of GAAP marketplace revenue2 , up 75.3% year-on-year, and US$0.3 billion of GAAP product revenue2 , up 26.8% year-onyear. GAAP revenue and GAAP marketplace revenue as % of total gross merchandise value (“GMV”) increased from 7.3% and 5.7% a year ago to 8.7% and 7.2%, respectively.o Gross orders totaled 1.9 billion, an increase of 71.3% year-on-year.o GMV was US$17.4 billion, an increase of 38.7% year-on-year.o Gross profit margin for e-commerce improved year-on-year as the company have seen faster growth of transaction-based fees and advertising income, which have higher profit margin compared to revenue generated from other value-added services. At the same time, gross profit margin of revenue generated from other value-added services also improved quarter-on-quarter.o Adjusted EBITDA1 loss per order before headquarters’ common expenses (“HQ costs”) improved year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter for Shopee overall. Shopee is on track to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA before allocation of HQ costs in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by this year as Sea shared previously. In Southeast Asia and Taiwan, such loss was 4 cents in the first quarter of 2022, a more than 70% improvement from 12 cents for the same period in 2021.o In Brazil, such loss also improved by more than 45% year-on-year to US$1.52 in the first quarter of 202the2.o After HQ costs allocation, the company currently expect Shopee to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in Southeast Asia and Taiwan by the end of next year.o Adjusted EBITDA for Shopee overall was US$(742.8) million compared to US$(412.9) million for the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA loss per order was US$0.40 in the first quarter of 2022, compared to US$0.38 for the same period in 2021, which was mainly attributable to HQ costs increase.▪ HQ costs increased by US$162.1 million year-on-year, which accounted for close to 50% of the total year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA loss. HQ costs consisted mainly of staff cost, general and administrative expenses such as building facilities and server hosting expenses.▪ The increase in HQ costs was mostly attributable to staff cost increase, which grew by US$113.3 million. This was mainly because of headcount increase, and in particular, research and development staff increase, which cost grew by US$86.0 million, as Sea invested in our technological capabilities and expanded our service offerings.o In Southeast Asia and in Taiwan respectively, Shopee continued to rank first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in app for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.o In Indonesia, where Shopee is the largest e-commerce platform, gross orders grew by around 77% year-on-year. Shopee also continued to rank first in the Shopping category by average monthly active users and total time spent in app for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.o Shopee Brazil continued to rank first in the Shopping category by downloads and total time spent in app and second by average monthly active users for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. Shopee Brazil also ranked first in the Shopping category by monthly active users in March and April 2022, according to data.ai3.o Globally, Shopee was the top ranked app in the Shopping category by downloads in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. In the same category, for Google Play, Shopee also ranked first globally by total time spent in app and second by average monthly active users in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.▪ Digital Entertainment o GAAP revenue was US$1.1 billion, up 45.3% year-on-year.o Bookings4 were US$0.8 billion, compared to US$ 1.1 billion for the first quarter of 2021. This represents compounded annual growth of 27% from the first quarter of 2020.o Adjusted EBITDA1 was US$431.4 million, compared to US$717.3 million for the first quarter of 2021.o Adjusted EBITDA represented 52.2% of bookings for the first quarter of 2022, compared to 64.4% for the first quarter of 2021.o Quarterly active users were 615.9 million, compared to 648.8 million for the first quarter of 2021. This represents compounded annual growth of almost 24% from the first quarter of 2020.o Quarterly paying users were 61.4 million, representing paying user ratio of 10.0% for the first quarter compared to 12.3% for the same period in 2021. Meanwhile, this represents increase from paying user ratio of 8.9% in the first quarter of 2020.o Average bookings per user were US$1.3, compared to US$1.7 for the first quarter of 2021.o Our self-developed global hit game, Free Fire, continued to maintain top global rankings in user and grossing metrics. It remained the most downloaded mobile game globally in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. In the same category, for Google Play, Free Fire also ranked third globally by average monthly active users in the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.o Free Fire continued to be the highest grossing mobile game in Southeast Asia and Latin America for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3. Free Fire has maintained this leading position for the past 11 consecutive quarters in Southeast Asia and in Latin America.o In the United States, Free Fire was the highest grossing mobile battle royale game for 5 consecutive quarters for the first quarter of 2022, according to data.ai3.▪ Digital Financial Services o GAAP revenue was US$236.0 million, up 359.9% year-on-year.o Adjusted EBITDA1 was US$(124.9) million, compared to US$(153.1) million for the first quarter of 2021.o Quarterly active users5 across our SeaMoney products and services reached 49.0 million, up 78.2% year-on-year.o In Indonesia, which has the most comprehensive set of products and services among our markets, over 30% of the quarterly active users have used multiple SeaMoney products or services in the first quarter of 2022.o Total payment volume for the mobile wallet was US$5.1 billion, up 48.5% yearon-year.o In April, application for digital bank license by a consortium led by Sea and YTL Digital Capital Sdn Bhd. was approved by the Minister of Finance Malaysia.Full Year 2022 Guidance Update Given the elevated macro uncertainties, Sea now see a wider dispersion of potential scenarios for Shopee for the full year of 2022 and hence are revising itse-commerce guidance to correspondingly reflect this view. The company now expect GAAP revenue for e-commerce to be between US$8.5 billion and US$9.1 billion, representing 71.8% growth from 2021 at the midpoint of the broader guidance, compared to the previous guidance of between US$8.9 billion and US$9.1 billion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}