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2021-06-15

Can we do it:

Asian shares rise in early trade, investors eye Fed meeting

2021-06-15

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2021-06-15

For the vest

What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting

2021-06-15

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3 Stocks to Avoid This Week

2021-06-15

I think nio is the strongest

NIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All

2021-06-15

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Back to the future: 2020s to echo roaring 20s or inflationary 70s?

2021-06-15

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My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.Having said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electrici","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.</li>\n <li>The company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.</li>\n <li>NIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73b2f5c2c6359610a15264530773421\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"461\"><span>Eoneren/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis Summary</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc.,(NYSE:NIO)is a fast-growing Chinese EV company with some very unique characteristics. Despite its youth and relatively small size in terms of global EV sales, NIO looks like it could one day be one of the most relevant companies in the EV sector. NIO is much more than just an EV car manufacturer, as it is also one of the most innovative companies in the space. Revolutions in charging technology and proprietary software should help NIO establish a moat, a unique selling point and can potentially create new revenue sources.</p>\n<p><b>BaaS: Another Layer of Revenue</b></p>\n<p>I have already talked extensively about NIO’s core business in previous articles. Today, I’d like to start by focusing on the implications behind one NIO’s signature characteristic: Battery-as-a-Service. (BaaS)</p>\n<p>Granted, many articles have already covered this topic too. Normally though, these focus on BaaS vs regular charging, or how BaaS technology can make NIO cars more appealing. However, in this section, I am focusing on the implications BaaS can have on NIO’s revenue, as a completely separate business, which it could one day be.</p>\n<p>NIO’s BaaS offerings have come a very long way since the company first initiated this idea. In April, the company&nbsp;reached a deal&nbsp;with Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(NYSE:SHI)to create a vast network of battery swap stations. NIO aims to have over 5000 stations by 2024. Furthermore, the latest iteration of the BaaS charging system allows car-owners to swap the battery for a fully charged one in minutes and without even needing to exit their car. BaaS is the fastest way to achieve the level of convenience we have when refueling traditional gas cars, and it may perhaps be the only way.</p>\n<p>So, the question is; Can NIO monetize its BaaS, and if so how would this look? The short answer to this question is yes. Ford Motors, Inc(NYSE:F)has already entered a deal with NIO to&nbsp;make use of NIO’s charging infrastructure.</p>\n<p>Having said this, charging stations today are&nbsp;for the most part&nbsp;unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electricity is much higher than what you would pay if you charged your car at home during the night. BaaS, however, works around this, since the replacement batteries could be charged anywhere. On top of that, what we do know is that NIO will stand to benefit a lot more from this line of business thanks to government subsidies. It has been openly stated by the CCP that China is moving away from consumer-focused subsidies, in favour of&nbsp;infrastructure based subsidies.</p>\n<p>It’s still early days, but if BaaS takes off, and other producers focus on this model, NIO could stand to gain a lot from this by being a source of infrastructure and technology. For example, NIO could play a key role in providing the necessary charging infrastructure for Europe, a market which it is just recently entering.</p>\n<p><b>NIO: Monetizing knowledge</b></p>\n<p>The other key area where NIO excels, and many may not realize it, is technology and knowledge. Let’s make this clear with some numbers.</p>\n<p>According to data from Tencent Tech, NIO has 2768 patents in China, 204 in Europe and 193 patents in the United States. 1208 of the patents held in China are “innovation patents”. This is a significant fact, because “innovation patents” as classified by the Chinese are the ones whose content can be considered “groundbreaking”. To put these numbers into perspective, NIO holds&nbsp;more patents than rivals&nbsp;like Li Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)and Xpeng Inc [XVEP].</p>\n<p>Diving deeper into these patents, we can see that most of these patents are related to the above-mentioned battery swap technology. Another hot topic of research today is autonomous driving. In this field, NIO has 47 patents, 64% of which are still pending. This is quite a small number if we compare it to Baidu, Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU), which boasts 632 patents. Lastly, I will note that I think one of the most successful areas where NIO is innovating is in terms of design and user interface/software. For example, the NIO ET7 features an `intelligent&nbsp;cockpit”, which is powered by NOMI, NIO’s artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>What I am trying to say is that perhaps what some see as NIO’s weakness, could be one of its biggest strengths. Many analysts seem to have a problem with the fact that NIO doesn’t make its cars, but this aspect of the car business is becoming less and less relevant. The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;has been quoted&nbsp;as saying that by 2025, cars will be sold at cost price, and it will be software sales that will provide these manufacturers revenue.</p>\n<p>It seems like the traditional car is going the way of smartphones. Putting together the components is perhaps the least important of the value-adding activities here. What’s most relevant is the operating system and the value of the brand. NIO shines in both of these areas, and this is perhaps another way in which we could say&nbsp;NIO is quite similar&nbsp;to Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>I believe the above are two strong points that highlight that NIO has potential way beyond the production of cars. Having said this, it is very hard to quantify how these advancements in innovation will change NIO’s revenues and profitability in the future. What I propose here is a valuation where we value NIO at its most basic level, through revenues achieved from car sales. However, I will defend that the P/S multiple will remain much higher than that of its “peers” given the reasons stated above.</p>\n<p>Now, let’s start with revenues and sales. At its most core level, we can predict NIO’s revenues by looking at how many cars it will produce in the next few years, and we have a good idea of what this could be. Recently, NIO renewed its&nbsp;manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with Jianghuai Automobile Group [JAC]. Supposedly, the company will be doubling its production capacity to around 240.000 units per year, at least until May 2024.</p>\n<p>Therefore, a very simple forecast of NIO’s revenues could be made based on this simple production fact. In the next 3 years, NIO will have the capacity to produce 720.000 new cars. Will they be able to sell them all? In 2020, NIO sold 43,728 vehicles. Forwards growth estimates have NIO doubling in revenue in the next year, which, assuming all revenues come from car sales and the price stays the same, would mean selling 87.456 units. If we pulled back growth to around 80% for 2022 and 50% for 2023, we would have corresponding sales of 157,420 and 236,132. This kind of growth is close to&nbsp;current estimates, and fits in quite nicely with NIO’s plans, since it seems like, by the end of this period, when the manufacturing agreement ends, NIO would be selling at near full capacity. The important point I am trying to make here is that given this recent deal, investors should not be worried about NIO’s production constraints. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like NIO will struggle from the demand side, especially as it plans to enter the&nbsp;European EV market.</p>\n<p>Now, the second point I will argue in this valuation, is that, given the changes in how the EV sector is shaping up, we should not apply industry multiples to a stock like NIO. In my&nbsp;previous article on the company, I did this and forecasted a price for 2030 of up to $400/share. However, a case can be made that NIO should command a premium in valuation. This is because the company is, quite literally, not making cars. Rather, it’s developing a brand, proprietary technology and also changing how we think about charging.</p>\n<p>Creating batteries for cars is a business in and of itself. A successful company in this sector is Contemporary Amperex Technology [CATL]. According to&nbsp;data from Market Screener,this company has an operating margin of 13%, grew revenues by 250% last year and trades at a P/E of 114 and a P/S of around 25.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, as car manufacturers begin to focus on delivering cars with an integrated operating system and software, we may see company’s like NIO trade at valuation multiples more in line with that of SaaS companies. Companies that sell software, like Adobe, Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE)or Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM)trade at P/S multiples of 15-20.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to sell 236,132 cars in 2023-2024 at an average price of $57,000, it would bring in $13,440 million in revenue. Assuming no dilution, this would imply roughly $10.25 of revenue/share. Given the fact that NIO could also begin to monetize its BaaS offerings, and that the company could even license its software and technology to other players, I feel like today’s P/S of 17 should be maintained, if not expanded. Growth may slow down, but we have to put a value on the assets NIO has in the form of patents and technology.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, my price target for NIO would be $174/share by the end of 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Having said this, there are some potential risks that the company faces in today’s environment. Firstly, and even though I see this mostly as a strength, not having its own manufacturing facilities can be seen as a disadvantage. If push comes to shove, JAC could refuse to honour their manufacturing contract, though I am sure this would be expensive.</p>\n<p>On another note, it is still not clear how widely adopted BaaS technology will be. Traditional charging spots are getting more advanced and, thanks to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, these charging stations could soon provide much more competitive charging rates. Clearly, NIO will have to partner up with other manufacturers to make BaaS a worldwide reality.</p>\n<p>Lastly, it is worth mentioning that, despite the high growth and improving profitability, it is very much on the cards to see further shareholder dilution, something which the valuation above did not account for.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO’s success over the last few years will ultimately be what makes the company successful in the future. NIO has found a way to innovate left, right and centre. It has changed the concept of charging through BaaS. It has also executed this innovation by building battery swap stations that are incredibly fast. It has innovated in terms of software and style, and I do not doubt that the company will continue to do so in the future. Ultimately, NIO is much more than an EV manufacturer and should be valued as such.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 09:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.\nThe company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.\nNIO commands high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140305126","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.\nThe company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.\nNIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.\n\nEoneren/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis Summary\nNIO Inc.,(NYSE:NIO)is a fast-growing Chinese EV company with some very unique characteristics. Despite its youth and relatively small size in terms of global EV sales, NIO looks like it could one day be one of the most relevant companies in the EV sector. NIO is much more than just an EV car manufacturer, as it is also one of the most innovative companies in the space. Revolutions in charging technology and proprietary software should help NIO establish a moat, a unique selling point and can potentially create new revenue sources.\nBaaS: Another Layer of Revenue\nI have already talked extensively about NIO’s core business in previous articles. Today, I’d like to start by focusing on the implications behind one NIO’s signature characteristic: Battery-as-a-Service. (BaaS)\nGranted, many articles have already covered this topic too. Normally though, these focus on BaaS vs regular charging, or how BaaS technology can make NIO cars more appealing. However, in this section, I am focusing on the implications BaaS can have on NIO’s revenue, as a completely separate business, which it could one day be.\nNIO’s BaaS offerings have come a very long way since the company first initiated this idea. In April, the company reached a deal with Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(NYSE:SHI)to create a vast network of battery swap stations. NIO aims to have over 5000 stations by 2024. Furthermore, the latest iteration of the BaaS charging system allows car-owners to swap the battery for a fully charged one in minutes and without even needing to exit their car. BaaS is the fastest way to achieve the level of convenience we have when refueling traditional gas cars, and it may perhaps be the only way.\nSo, the question is; Can NIO monetize its BaaS, and if so how would this look? The short answer to this question is yes. Ford Motors, Inc(NYSE:F)has already entered a deal with NIO to make use of NIO’s charging infrastructure.\nHaving said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electricity is much higher than what you would pay if you charged your car at home during the night. BaaS, however, works around this, since the replacement batteries could be charged anywhere. On top of that, what we do know is that NIO will stand to benefit a lot more from this line of business thanks to government subsidies. It has been openly stated by the CCP that China is moving away from consumer-focused subsidies, in favour of infrastructure based subsidies.\nIt’s still early days, but if BaaS takes off, and other producers focus on this model, NIO could stand to gain a lot from this by being a source of infrastructure and technology. For example, NIO could play a key role in providing the necessary charging infrastructure for Europe, a market which it is just recently entering.\nNIO: Monetizing knowledge\nThe other key area where NIO excels, and many may not realize it, is technology and knowledge. Let’s make this clear with some numbers.\nAccording to data from Tencent Tech, NIO has 2768 patents in China, 204 in Europe and 193 patents in the United States. 1208 of the patents held in China are “innovation patents”. This is a significant fact, because “innovation patents” as classified by the Chinese are the ones whose content can be considered “groundbreaking”. To put these numbers into perspective, NIO holds more patents than rivals like Li Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)and Xpeng Inc [XVEP].\nDiving deeper into these patents, we can see that most of these patents are related to the above-mentioned battery swap technology. Another hot topic of research today is autonomous driving. In this field, NIO has 47 patents, 64% of which are still pending. This is quite a small number if we compare it to Baidu, Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU), which boasts 632 patents. Lastly, I will note that I think one of the most successful areas where NIO is innovating is in terms of design and user interface/software. For example, the NIO ET7 features an `intelligent cockpit”, which is powered by NOMI, NIO’s artificial intelligence.\nWhat I am trying to say is that perhaps what some see as NIO’s weakness, could be one of its biggest strengths. Many analysts seem to have a problem with the fact that NIO doesn’t make its cars, but this aspect of the car business is becoming less and less relevant. The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA) has been quoted as saying that by 2025, cars will be sold at cost price, and it will be software sales that will provide these manufacturers revenue.\nIt seems like the traditional car is going the way of smartphones. Putting together the components is perhaps the least important of the value-adding activities here. What’s most relevant is the operating system and the value of the brand. NIO shines in both of these areas, and this is perhaps another way in which we could say NIO is quite similar to Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).\nValuation\nI believe the above are two strong points that highlight that NIO has potential way beyond the production of cars. Having said this, it is very hard to quantify how these advancements in innovation will change NIO’s revenues and profitability in the future. What I propose here is a valuation where we value NIO at its most basic level, through revenues achieved from car sales. However, I will defend that the P/S multiple will remain much higher than that of its “peers” given the reasons stated above.\nNow, let’s start with revenues and sales. At its most core level, we can predict NIO’s revenues by looking at how many cars it will produce in the next few years, and we have a good idea of what this could be. Recently, NIO renewed its manufacturing agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group [JAC]. Supposedly, the company will be doubling its production capacity to around 240.000 units per year, at least until May 2024.\nTherefore, a very simple forecast of NIO’s revenues could be made based on this simple production fact. In the next 3 years, NIO will have the capacity to produce 720.000 new cars. Will they be able to sell them all? In 2020, NIO sold 43,728 vehicles. Forwards growth estimates have NIO doubling in revenue in the next year, which, assuming all revenues come from car sales and the price stays the same, would mean selling 87.456 units. If we pulled back growth to around 80% for 2022 and 50% for 2023, we would have corresponding sales of 157,420 and 236,132. This kind of growth is close to current estimates, and fits in quite nicely with NIO’s plans, since it seems like, by the end of this period, when the manufacturing agreement ends, NIO would be selling at near full capacity. The important point I am trying to make here is that given this recent deal, investors should not be worried about NIO’s production constraints. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like NIO will struggle from the demand side, especially as it plans to enter the European EV market.\nNow, the second point I will argue in this valuation, is that, given the changes in how the EV sector is shaping up, we should not apply industry multiples to a stock like NIO. In my previous article on the company, I did this and forecasted a price for 2030 of up to $400/share. However, a case can be made that NIO should command a premium in valuation. This is because the company is, quite literally, not making cars. Rather, it’s developing a brand, proprietary technology and also changing how we think about charging.\nCreating batteries for cars is a business in and of itself. A successful company in this sector is Contemporary Amperex Technology [CATL]. According to data from Market Screener,this company has an operating margin of 13%, grew revenues by 250% last year and trades at a P/E of 114 and a P/S of around 25.\nOn the other hand, as car manufacturers begin to focus on delivering cars with an integrated operating system and software, we may see company’s like NIO trade at valuation multiples more in line with that of SaaS companies. Companies that sell software, like Adobe, Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE)or Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM)trade at P/S multiples of 15-20.\nIf NIO were to sell 236,132 cars in 2023-2024 at an average price of $57,000, it would bring in $13,440 million in revenue. Assuming no dilution, this would imply roughly $10.25 of revenue/share. Given the fact that NIO could also begin to monetize its BaaS offerings, and that the company could even license its software and technology to other players, I feel like today’s P/S of 17 should be maintained, if not expanded. Growth may slow down, but we have to put a value on the assets NIO has in the form of patents and technology.\nIn conclusion, my price target for NIO would be $174/share by the end of 2023.\nRisks\nHaving said this, there are some potential risks that the company faces in today’s environment. Firstly, and even though I see this mostly as a strength, not having its own manufacturing facilities can be seen as a disadvantage. If push comes to shove, JAC could refuse to honour their manufacturing contract, though I am sure this would be expensive.\nOn another note, it is still not clear how widely adopted BaaS technology will be. Traditional charging spots are getting more advanced and, thanks to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, these charging stations could soon provide much more competitive charging rates. Clearly, NIO will have to partner up with other manufacturers to make BaaS a worldwide reality.\nLastly, it is worth mentioning that, despite the high growth and improving profitability, it is very much on the cards to see further shareholder dilution, something which the valuation above did not account for.\nTakeaway\nNIO’s success over the last few years will ultimately be what makes the company successful in the future. NIO has found a way to innovate left, right and centre. It has changed the concept of charging through BaaS. It has also executed this innovation by building battery swap stations that are incredibly fast. It has innovated in terms of software and style, and I do not doubt that the company will continue to do so in the future. Ultimately, NIO is much more than an EV manufacturer and should be valued as such.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187907974,"gmtCreate":1623733176898,"gmtModify":1704209902676,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ex game","listText":"Ex game","text":"Ex game","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187907974","repostId":"2143898782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187904321,"gmtCreate":1623733156863,"gmtModify":1704209901546,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ex apple","listText":"Ex apple","text":"Ex apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187904321","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187905103,"gmtCreate":1623733133302,"gmtModify":1704209900092,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can we do it:","listText":"Can we do it:","text":"Can we do it:","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187905103","repostId":"2143314917","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187908742,"gmtCreate":1623733033086,"gmtModify":1704209896205,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Best of the best","listText":"Best of the best","text":"Best of the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187908742","repostId":"2143733619","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187900398,"gmtCreate":1623732749614,"gmtModify":1704209889659,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For the vest","listText":"For the vest","text":"For the vest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187900398","repostId":"1138219989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187074709,"gmtCreate":1623732706301,"gmtModify":1704209887876,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can we do ig","listText":"Can we do ig","text":"Can we do ig","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187074709","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":187905103,"gmtCreate":1623733133302,"gmtModify":1704209900092,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can we do it:","listText":"Can we do it:","text":"Can we do it:","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187905103","repostId":"2143314917","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143314917","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623723786,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143314917?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 10:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Asian shares rise in early trade, investors eye Fed meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143314917","media":"Reuters","summary":"HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose early on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street higher, thou","content":"<p>HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose early on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street higher, though investors looked to a much-anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting to see if the central bank would signal any change to the U.S. monetary policy outlook.</p>\n<p>Japan's Nikkei rose 0.89% in early trading and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan&nbsp;was up 0.23%.</p>\n<p>An early driver was Australian shares, which rose 1.03%, though Chinese blue chips dropped 0.16% and Hong Kong fell 0.21%. All three resumed trading after being shut on Monday for a public holiday.</p>\n<p>Overnight the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, helped by tech names, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25%.</p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures, the S&amp;P 500 e-minis, were also up&nbsp;0.11%.</p>\n<p>\"We are still getting markets responding positively to the lower volatility in the bond markets and lower yields, and a sense that inflation will be reasonably temporary and the Fed won't have to slam the breaks on,\" said Kyle Rodda, market analyst at brokerage IG.</p>\n<p>\"I suspect in the next 24-48 hours we'll see a lot of chop, first on the upside, then a little correction as the market positions itself, and then we're off to the races if we get the green light from the Fed Thursday morning,\" said Rodda.</p>\n<p>Traders will look closely at any hints from the meeting's final statement about whether and when the Fed plans to taper its bond buying programme, amid concerns from some quarters about inflation as the U.S. economy bounces back from the pandemic fallout. The two-day meeting starts on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Nearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect a taper announcement will come in the next quarter, despite a patchy recovery in the job market.</p>\n<p>\"Whilst no immediate changes in monetary policy are anticipated, an increase in the share of FOMC members who think rates will need to increase in 2023 is expected,\" analysts at ANZ wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>\"If three more members pencil in rate rises for 2023, that would tip the majority in favour of moving rates relatively soon,\" they said</p>\n<p>Currency markets were quiet ahead of the meeting, with the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, broadly flat at 90.502 in early Asia trading.</p>\n<p>Benchmark 10-year yields were 1.4872%, little changed from Monday, when they rebounded from Friday's three-month low.</p>\n<p>As for commodities, U.S. crude ticked up 0.55% to $71.27 a barrel, and Brent crude was at $73.24 per barrel, having touched on Monday $73.64 a barrel, its highest since April 2019.</p>\n<p>Spot gold was down slightly at $1862.21 per ounce.</p>\n<p>Even bitcoin was fairly quiet, fluctuating a little above $40 000. It rose on Sunday and Monday after Elon Musk said Tesla could resume accepting payment in the world's largest cryptocurrency at some point in the future.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Asian shares rise in early trade, investors eye Fed meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAsian shares rise in early trade, investors eye Fed meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 10:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose early on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street higher, though investors looked to a much-anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting to see if the central bank would signal any change to the U.S. monetary policy outlook.</p>\n<p>Japan's Nikkei rose 0.89% in early trading and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan&nbsp;was up 0.23%.</p>\n<p>An early driver was Australian shares, which rose 1.03%, though Chinese blue chips dropped 0.16% and Hong Kong fell 0.21%. All three resumed trading after being shut on Monday for a public holiday.</p>\n<p>Overnight the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, helped by tech names, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25%.</p>\n<p>U.S. stock futures, the S&amp;P 500 e-minis, were also up&nbsp;0.11%.</p>\n<p>\"We are still getting markets responding positively to the lower volatility in the bond markets and lower yields, and a sense that inflation will be reasonably temporary and the Fed won't have to slam the breaks on,\" said Kyle Rodda, market analyst at brokerage IG.</p>\n<p>\"I suspect in the next 24-48 hours we'll see a lot of chop, first on the upside, then a little correction as the market positions itself, and then we're off to the races if we get the green light from the Fed Thursday morning,\" said Rodda.</p>\n<p>Traders will look closely at any hints from the meeting's final statement about whether and when the Fed plans to taper its bond buying programme, amid concerns from some quarters about inflation as the U.S. economy bounces back from the pandemic fallout. The two-day meeting starts on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Nearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect a taper announcement will come in the next quarter, despite a patchy recovery in the job market.</p>\n<p>\"Whilst no immediate changes in monetary policy are anticipated, an increase in the share of FOMC members who think rates will need to increase in 2023 is expected,\" analysts at ANZ wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>\"If three more members pencil in rate rises for 2023, that would tip the majority in favour of moving rates relatively soon,\" they said</p>\n<p>Currency markets were quiet ahead of the meeting, with the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, broadly flat at 90.502 in early Asia trading.</p>\n<p>Benchmark 10-year yields were 1.4872%, little changed from Monday, when they rebounded from Friday's three-month low.</p>\n<p>As for commodities, U.S. crude ticked up 0.55% to $71.27 a barrel, and Brent crude was at $73.24 per barrel, having touched on Monday $73.64 a barrel, its highest since April 2019.</p>\n<p>Spot gold was down slightly at $1862.21 per ounce.</p>\n<p>Even bitcoin was fairly quiet, fluctuating a little above $40 000. It rose on Sunday and Monday after Elon Musk said Tesla could resume accepting payment in the world's largest cryptocurrency at some point in the future.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","YCS":"日元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","USO":"美国原油ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","EUO":"欧元ETF-ProShares两倍做空","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","FXY":"日元ETF-CurrencyShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","FXB":"英镑ETF-CurrencyShares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","FXE":"欧元做多ETF-CurrencyShares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143314917","content_text":"HONG KONG, June 15 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose early on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street higher, though investors looked to a much-anticipated Federal Reserve policy meeting to see if the central bank would signal any change to the U.S. monetary policy outlook.\nJapan's Nikkei rose 0.89% in early trading and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.23%.\nAn early driver was Australian shares, which rose 1.03%, though Chinese blue chips dropped 0.16% and Hong Kong fell 0.21%. All three resumed trading after being shut on Monday for a public holiday.\nOvernight the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, helped by tech names, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25%.\nU.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were also up 0.11%.\n\"We are still getting markets responding positively to the lower volatility in the bond markets and lower yields, and a sense that inflation will be reasonably temporary and the Fed won't have to slam the breaks on,\" said Kyle Rodda, market analyst at brokerage IG.\n\"I suspect in the next 24-48 hours we'll see a lot of chop, first on the upside, then a little correction as the market positions itself, and then we're off to the races if we get the green light from the Fed Thursday morning,\" said Rodda.\nTraders will look closely at any hints from the meeting's final statement about whether and when the Fed plans to taper its bond buying programme, amid concerns from some quarters about inflation as the U.S. economy bounces back from the pandemic fallout. The two-day meeting starts on Tuesday.\nNearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect a taper announcement will come in the next quarter, despite a patchy recovery in the job market.\n\"Whilst no immediate changes in monetary policy are anticipated, an increase in the share of FOMC members who think rates will need to increase in 2023 is expected,\" analysts at ANZ wrote in a note to clients.\n\"If three more members pencil in rate rises for 2023, that would tip the majority in favour of moving rates relatively soon,\" they said\nCurrency markets were quiet ahead of the meeting, with the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, broadly flat at 90.502 in early Asia trading.\nBenchmark 10-year yields were 1.4872%, little changed from Monday, when they rebounded from Friday's three-month low.\nAs for commodities, U.S. crude ticked up 0.55% to $71.27 a barrel, and Brent crude was at $73.24 per barrel, having touched on Monday $73.64 a barrel, its highest since April 2019.\nSpot gold was down slightly at $1862.21 per ounce.\nEven bitcoin was fairly quiet, fluctuating a little above $40 000. It rose on Sunday and Monday after Elon Musk said Tesla could resume accepting payment in the world's largest cryptocurrency at some point in the future.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187908742,"gmtCreate":1623733033086,"gmtModify":1704209896205,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Best of the best","listText":"Best of the best","text":"Best of the best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187908742","repostId":"2143733619","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187900398,"gmtCreate":1623732749614,"gmtModify":1704209889659,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"For the vest","listText":"For the vest","text":"For the vest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187900398","repostId":"1138219989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138219989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623650085,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1138219989?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138219989","media":"Barrons","summary":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again a","content":"<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.</p>\n<p>We all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).</p>\n<p>We’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted&nbsp;on the Fed’s website&nbsp;at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.</p>\n<p>The “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.</p>\n<p>The markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for&nbsp;Natixis.</p>\n<p>Long before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.</p>\n<p>The key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.</p>\n<p>But the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed&nbsp;a record 9.3 million unfilled openings&nbsp;in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.</p>\n<p>Anecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.</p>\n<p>Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.</p>\n<p>At that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to Expect in This Week’s Federal Reserve Meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-14 13:54 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-to-expect-in-next-weeks-federal-reserve-meeting-51623457837?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138219989","content_text":"As the Federal Open Market Committee holds its regular policy meeting this coming week, once again analysts and investors should flip the Nixon-era cliché and watch what they say, not what they do. What everybody wants to know is whether the panel finally has gotten around to talking about talking about moving away from its ubereasy monetary policy.\nWe all know that the FOMC won’t take any substantive steps in terms of its massive securities purchases, which are still running at $120 billion a month. As for its key federal-funds rate target, that’s stuck at 0% to 0.25% (although there’s an outside chance of technical tweaking of some other Fed-administered rates to address the billions in excess cash sloshing around in the money markets).\nWe’ll be looking for what’s in the FOMC’s formal policy statement and the panel’s updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include the amalgam of the committee members’ guesses on key economic gauges, such as gross domestic product, inflation, and unemployment. Most likely, when that is posted on the Fed’s website at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Wednesday, most folks will probably head straight for the FOMC’s guesses on the fed-funds rate, and specifically when liftoff from near-zero is finally expected.\nThe “dot plot”—or graph of the FOMC members’ consensus guesses—puts the first hike all the way out past 2023. That seems a very long-term forecast, and as John Maynard Keynes famously pointed out, in the long run we’re all dead. Some Fed watchers, such as J.P. Morgan’s chief U.S. economist, Michael Feroli, look for the dots to show a 2023 liftoff.\nThe markets, however, already had been pricing in one or more fed-funds rate hikes by 2023. But concurrent with the previously discussed slide in longer-term bond yields, the interest-rate futures markets have effectively priced out one of those short-term rate increases. In addition, the derivatives market now sees the fed-funds rate peaking under 2%, some 0.4 of a percentage point lower than what it had priced in earlier this year, according to analysts for Natixis.\nLong before making any rate hikes, the Fed will begin to lessen its accommodation by slowing its current pace of securities purchases, which consist of $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities every month. The trillions that the Federal Reserve and other central banks have created have gone a long way to boost the values of assets, which rose by $5 trillion, to $136.9 trillion, in the first quarter, according to new Fed data released this past week. That includes a $3.2 trillion rise in the value of equities owned by households and a $968 billion rise in their real estate holdings.\nThe key criterion for reduced Fed accommodation is whether the monetary authorities see “substantial further progress” toward reaching what they deem as maximum employment, probably a deliberately ambiguous standard.\nBut the increase in payrolls appears to be constrained as much by the supply of labor as businesses’ desire to hire. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or Jolts, showed a record 9.3 million unfilled openings in April. In addition, 384,000 people left their positions that month, bringing the total of voluntary job quitters to a record four million.\nAnecdotal evidence, including some in the Fed’s beige book summary of economic conditions prepared for the coming meeting, suggests that employers aren’t finding enough workers because of generous unemployment compensation. Unusual for a social science such as economics, there will be a real-time experiment to test this hypothesis as 25 states end the extra $300 weekly payment early.\nJefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons write in a research note that these 25 states account for about a quarter of all the unemployed workers. Ending their extra jobless benefits could boost employment by roughly two million in the next few months, they estimate. Another growth spurt should follow in September and October after the extra unemployment insurance expires in the remaining states; schools reopen—providing free daycare for some would-be workers, especially women; and many office employees return to their desks, they add.\nAt that point, the Fed might start talking about actually reducing its massive securities purchases. Given the “taper tantrum” thrown by the markets when the central bank slowed its bond buying in 2013, this Fed will want to disclose how, when, and how fast it plans to slow its pour into the punch bowl. That’s what we’ll be listening for this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187074709,"gmtCreate":1623732706301,"gmtModify":1704209887876,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can we do ig","listText":"Can we do ig","text":"Can we do ig","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187074709","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143178756","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623719401,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143178756?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Avoid This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143178756","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These investments seem pretty vulnerable right now.","content":"<p>In last week's article on three stocks to avoid, I predicted that <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME), <b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:AMC), and <b>Carnival</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:CCL) would have a rough few days.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>GameStop lived up to my prediction on tumbling the day after reporting quarterly results, something that has now happened in 10 of the past 11 reports. The video game retailer plummeted 27% on Thursday, but it moved nicely higher the other four days of the week -- trimming its weeklong decline to just 6%.</li>\n <li>AMC closed out the week with a 3% gain, following the 83% burst higher the week before. The multiplex operator is benefiting from a surge in box office receipts, but they continue to track at less than half of where the industry was two years ago.</li>\n <li>Finally we have Carnival sinking 2% for the week. Cruise stocks have been buoyant ahead of a return to sailing this month, but we're already seeing COVID-19 cases pop up in the limited number of voyages taking place so far.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Those three stocks averaged a 1.7% decline for the week. The <b>S&amp;P 500</b> rose by 0.4% in that time, so I won. Right now, I see <b>Royal Caribbean</b>&nbsp;(NYSE:RCL), AMC Entertainment Holdings, and <b>Osprey Bitcoin Trust</b> (OTC:OBTC) as vulnerable investments in the near term. Here's why I think these are three stocks to avoid this week.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844fa22418b0d6398103c6917b0d7eb3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"459\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Royal Caribbean</h2>\n<p>This was supposed to be the summer that the cruise industry finally roars back into being, but we're already seeing some choppy waters. Royal Caribbean's <i>Celebrity Millennium</i> became the first major cruise ship available to North American seafarers earlier this month since the industry shut down last March. A few days into the maiden voyage, a pair of passengers contracted the COVID-19 virus.</p>\n<p>There's also an operational standoff in Royal Caribbean's home state of Florida, where the governor is threatening to fine cruise lines for requiring vaccinations of its passengers. It's a Catch-22 for the industry, as the CDC requires at least 95% of a ship's passengers to be fully vaccinated to resume sailings without having to go through a series of costly test cruises.</p>\n<p>Royal Caribbean is my favorite of the three cruise lines as an investment, but it's also held up the best during the lull. With the reopening off to a bumpy start it also makes the stock vulnerable here.</p>\n<h2><b>2. AMC Entertainment</b></h2>\n<p>I'm a fan of a lot that AMC Entertainment has done to get bet better at a time when many of its smaller rivals have been merely walking in place. The country's largest multiplex operator has upped its seat reservations and mobile order tech and carved out a new revenue stream with actively promoted private rentals. The new Investor Connect program is sheer genius, monetizing its newborn attention as a meme stock with millions of retail investors by trying to convert them into customers.</p>\n<p>However, after ballooning its share count north of 500 million -- and the stock still moving higher -- there will eventually be a price to be paid in terms of valuation. AMC Entertainment enters this week with an enterprise value above $35 billion, and sooner or later someone is going to have to pay the tab at the end of the party.</p>\n<p>AMC is doing the right things to stay on top of a declining industry, but it's not enough to justify today's sticker price.&nbsp; This has historically been a low-margin business -- in the low single digits for net margin most years -- despite the markup on concessions. You'll see a year-over-year bounce this year, but we may never return to 2019 as a baseline. Theatrical release windows are being shattered by streaming initiatives. AMC has bloated its debt levels and share count to stay alive, but all of this comes at a price that right now seems too dear to pay.</p>\n<h2>3. Osprey Bitcoin Trust</h2>\n<p>I believe in keeping a small percent of your risk-tolerant portfolio in crypto, but not every vehicle is in the same boat. Osprey Bitcoin Trust offers investors a low-cost way to play the popularity of <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC) in a stock exchange-listed vehicle.</p>\n<p>Osprey Bitcoin Trust is a lot smaller than the market's original Bitcoin-owning trust, and it's also trading at an unsustainable premium. Osprey's mark-up to its stake of Bitcoin tokens has been contracting since hitting the market earlier this year, and I was starting to get interested when the premium narrowed to 12% a week ago.</p>\n<p>The mark-up is going the wrong way again. Osprey Bitcoin Trust owns what is currently $12.68 in Bitcoin, but it closed last week at $14.95. Is an 18% premium worth it when the much larger -- but admittedly more high-cost -- <b>Grayscale Bitcoin Trust</b> (OTC:GBTC) is fetching an 11% discount to its net asset value?</p>\n<p>If you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Royal Caribbean, AMC Entertainment, and Osprey Bitcoin Trust this week.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Avoid This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Avoid This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 09:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In last week's article on three stocks to avoid, I predicted that GameStop (NYSE:GME), AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC), and Carnival (NYSE:CCL) would have a rough few days.\n\nGameStop lived up to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","OBTC":"Osprey Bitcoin Trust"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/14/3-stocks-to-avoid-this-week/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143178756","content_text":"In last week's article on three stocks to avoid, I predicted that GameStop (NYSE:GME), AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC), and Carnival (NYSE:CCL) would have a rough few days.\n\nGameStop lived up to my prediction on tumbling the day after reporting quarterly results, something that has now happened in 10 of the past 11 reports. The video game retailer plummeted 27% on Thursday, but it moved nicely higher the other four days of the week -- trimming its weeklong decline to just 6%.\nAMC closed out the week with a 3% gain, following the 83% burst higher the week before. The multiplex operator is benefiting from a surge in box office receipts, but they continue to track at less than half of where the industry was two years ago.\nFinally we have Carnival sinking 2% for the week. Cruise stocks have been buoyant ahead of a return to sailing this month, but we're already seeing COVID-19 cases pop up in the limited number of voyages taking place so far.\n\nThose three stocks averaged a 1.7% decline for the week. The S&P 500 rose by 0.4% in that time, so I won. Right now, I see Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL), AMC Entertainment Holdings, and Osprey Bitcoin Trust (OTC:OBTC) as vulnerable investments in the near term. Here's why I think these are three stocks to avoid this week.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n1. Royal Caribbean\nThis was supposed to be the summer that the cruise industry finally roars back into being, but we're already seeing some choppy waters. Royal Caribbean's Celebrity Millennium became the first major cruise ship available to North American seafarers earlier this month since the industry shut down last March. A few days into the maiden voyage, a pair of passengers contracted the COVID-19 virus.\nThere's also an operational standoff in Royal Caribbean's home state of Florida, where the governor is threatening to fine cruise lines for requiring vaccinations of its passengers. It's a Catch-22 for the industry, as the CDC requires at least 95% of a ship's passengers to be fully vaccinated to resume sailings without having to go through a series of costly test cruises.\nRoyal Caribbean is my favorite of the three cruise lines as an investment, but it's also held up the best during the lull. With the reopening off to a bumpy start it also makes the stock vulnerable here.\n2. AMC Entertainment\nI'm a fan of a lot that AMC Entertainment has done to get bet better at a time when many of its smaller rivals have been merely walking in place. The country's largest multiplex operator has upped its seat reservations and mobile order tech and carved out a new revenue stream with actively promoted private rentals. The new Investor Connect program is sheer genius, monetizing its newborn attention as a meme stock with millions of retail investors by trying to convert them into customers.\nHowever, after ballooning its share count north of 500 million -- and the stock still moving higher -- there will eventually be a price to be paid in terms of valuation. AMC Entertainment enters this week with an enterprise value above $35 billion, and sooner or later someone is going to have to pay the tab at the end of the party.\nAMC is doing the right things to stay on top of a declining industry, but it's not enough to justify today's sticker price.  This has historically been a low-margin business -- in the low single digits for net margin most years -- despite the markup on concessions. You'll see a year-over-year bounce this year, but we may never return to 2019 as a baseline. Theatrical release windows are being shattered by streaming initiatives. AMC has bloated its debt levels and share count to stay alive, but all of this comes at a price that right now seems too dear to pay.\n3. Osprey Bitcoin Trust\nI believe in keeping a small percent of your risk-tolerant portfolio in crypto, but not every vehicle is in the same boat. Osprey Bitcoin Trust offers investors a low-cost way to play the popularity of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) in a stock exchange-listed vehicle.\nOsprey Bitcoin Trust is a lot smaller than the market's original Bitcoin-owning trust, and it's also trading at an unsustainable premium. Osprey's mark-up to its stake of Bitcoin tokens has been contracting since hitting the market earlier this year, and I was starting to get interested when the premium narrowed to 12% a week ago.\nThe mark-up is going the wrong way again. Osprey Bitcoin Trust owns what is currently $12.68 in Bitcoin, but it closed last week at $14.95. Is an 18% premium worth it when the much larger -- but admittedly more high-cost -- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC) is fetching an 11% discount to its net asset value?\nIf you're looking for safe stocks, you aren't likely to find them in Royal Caribbean, AMC Entertainment, and Osprey Bitcoin Trust this week.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187907589,"gmtCreate":1623733199741,"gmtModify":1704209903809,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think nio is the strongest","listText":"I think nio is the strongest","text":"I think nio is the strongest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187907589","repostId":"1140305126","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140305126","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623722258,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1140305126?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 09:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140305126","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.The company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.NIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.Having said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electrici","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>NIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.</li>\n <li>The company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.</li>\n <li>NIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e73b2f5c2c6359610a15264530773421\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"461\"><span>Eoneren/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis Summary</span></p>\n<p>NIO Inc.,(NYSE:NIO)is a fast-growing Chinese EV company with some very unique characteristics. Despite its youth and relatively small size in terms of global EV sales, NIO looks like it could one day be one of the most relevant companies in the EV sector. NIO is much more than just an EV car manufacturer, as it is also one of the most innovative companies in the space. Revolutions in charging technology and proprietary software should help NIO establish a moat, a unique selling point and can potentially create new revenue sources.</p>\n<p><b>BaaS: Another Layer of Revenue</b></p>\n<p>I have already talked extensively about NIO’s core business in previous articles. Today, I’d like to start by focusing on the implications behind one NIO’s signature characteristic: Battery-as-a-Service. (BaaS)</p>\n<p>Granted, many articles have already covered this topic too. Normally though, these focus on BaaS vs regular charging, or how BaaS technology can make NIO cars more appealing. However, in this section, I am focusing on the implications BaaS can have on NIO’s revenue, as a completely separate business, which it could one day be.</p>\n<p>NIO’s BaaS offerings have come a very long way since the company first initiated this idea. In April, the company&nbsp;reached a deal&nbsp;with Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(NYSE:SHI)to create a vast network of battery swap stations. NIO aims to have over 5000 stations by 2024. Furthermore, the latest iteration of the BaaS charging system allows car-owners to swap the battery for a fully charged one in minutes and without even needing to exit their car. BaaS is the fastest way to achieve the level of convenience we have when refueling traditional gas cars, and it may perhaps be the only way.</p>\n<p>So, the question is; Can NIO monetize its BaaS, and if so how would this look? The short answer to this question is yes. Ford Motors, Inc(NYSE:F)has already entered a deal with NIO to&nbsp;make use of NIO’s charging infrastructure.</p>\n<p>Having said this, charging stations today are&nbsp;for the most part&nbsp;unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electricity is much higher than what you would pay if you charged your car at home during the night. BaaS, however, works around this, since the replacement batteries could be charged anywhere. On top of that, what we do know is that NIO will stand to benefit a lot more from this line of business thanks to government subsidies. It has been openly stated by the CCP that China is moving away from consumer-focused subsidies, in favour of&nbsp;infrastructure based subsidies.</p>\n<p>It’s still early days, but if BaaS takes off, and other producers focus on this model, NIO could stand to gain a lot from this by being a source of infrastructure and technology. For example, NIO could play a key role in providing the necessary charging infrastructure for Europe, a market which it is just recently entering.</p>\n<p><b>NIO: Monetizing knowledge</b></p>\n<p>The other key area where NIO excels, and many may not realize it, is technology and knowledge. Let’s make this clear with some numbers.</p>\n<p>According to data from Tencent Tech, NIO has 2768 patents in China, 204 in Europe and 193 patents in the United States. 1208 of the patents held in China are “innovation patents”. This is a significant fact, because “innovation patents” as classified by the Chinese are the ones whose content can be considered “groundbreaking”. To put these numbers into perspective, NIO holds&nbsp;more patents than rivals&nbsp;like Li Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)and Xpeng Inc [XVEP].</p>\n<p>Diving deeper into these patents, we can see that most of these patents are related to the above-mentioned battery swap technology. Another hot topic of research today is autonomous driving. In this field, NIO has 47 patents, 64% of which are still pending. This is quite a small number if we compare it to Baidu, Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU), which boasts 632 patents. Lastly, I will note that I think one of the most successful areas where NIO is innovating is in terms of design and user interface/software. For example, the NIO ET7 features an `intelligent&nbsp;cockpit”, which is powered by NOMI, NIO’s artificial intelligence.</p>\n<p>What I am trying to say is that perhaps what some see as NIO’s weakness, could be one of its biggest strengths. Many analysts seem to have a problem with the fact that NIO doesn’t make its cars, but this aspect of the car business is becoming less and less relevant. The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;has been quoted&nbsp;as saying that by 2025, cars will be sold at cost price, and it will be software sales that will provide these manufacturers revenue.</p>\n<p>It seems like the traditional car is going the way of smartphones. Putting together the components is perhaps the least important of the value-adding activities here. What’s most relevant is the operating system and the value of the brand. NIO shines in both of these areas, and this is perhaps another way in which we could say&nbsp;NIO is quite similar&nbsp;to Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>I believe the above are two strong points that highlight that NIO has potential way beyond the production of cars. Having said this, it is very hard to quantify how these advancements in innovation will change NIO’s revenues and profitability in the future. What I propose here is a valuation where we value NIO at its most basic level, through revenues achieved from car sales. However, I will defend that the P/S multiple will remain much higher than that of its “peers” given the reasons stated above.</p>\n<p>Now, let’s start with revenues and sales. At its most core level, we can predict NIO’s revenues by looking at how many cars it will produce in the next few years, and we have a good idea of what this could be. Recently, NIO renewed its&nbsp;manufacturing agreement&nbsp;with Jianghuai Automobile Group [JAC]. Supposedly, the company will be doubling its production capacity to around 240.000 units per year, at least until May 2024.</p>\n<p>Therefore, a very simple forecast of NIO’s revenues could be made based on this simple production fact. In the next 3 years, NIO will have the capacity to produce 720.000 new cars. Will they be able to sell them all? In 2020, NIO sold 43,728 vehicles. Forwards growth estimates have NIO doubling in revenue in the next year, which, assuming all revenues come from car sales and the price stays the same, would mean selling 87.456 units. If we pulled back growth to around 80% for 2022 and 50% for 2023, we would have corresponding sales of 157,420 and 236,132. This kind of growth is close to&nbsp;current estimates, and fits in quite nicely with NIO’s plans, since it seems like, by the end of this period, when the manufacturing agreement ends, NIO would be selling at near full capacity. The important point I am trying to make here is that given this recent deal, investors should not be worried about NIO’s production constraints. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like NIO will struggle from the demand side, especially as it plans to enter the&nbsp;European EV market.</p>\n<p>Now, the second point I will argue in this valuation, is that, given the changes in how the EV sector is shaping up, we should not apply industry multiples to a stock like NIO. In my&nbsp;previous article on the company, I did this and forecasted a price for 2030 of up to $400/share. However, a case can be made that NIO should command a premium in valuation. This is because the company is, quite literally, not making cars. Rather, it’s developing a brand, proprietary technology and also changing how we think about charging.</p>\n<p>Creating batteries for cars is a business in and of itself. A successful company in this sector is Contemporary Amperex Technology [CATL]. According to&nbsp;data from Market Screener,this company has an operating margin of 13%, grew revenues by 250% last year and trades at a P/E of 114 and a P/S of around 25.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, as car manufacturers begin to focus on delivering cars with an integrated operating system and software, we may see company’s like NIO trade at valuation multiples more in line with that of SaaS companies. Companies that sell software, like Adobe, Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE)or Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM)trade at P/S multiples of 15-20.</p>\n<p>If NIO were to sell 236,132 cars in 2023-2024 at an average price of $57,000, it would bring in $13,440 million in revenue. Assuming no dilution, this would imply roughly $10.25 of revenue/share. Given the fact that NIO could also begin to monetize its BaaS offerings, and that the company could even license its software and technology to other players, I feel like today’s P/S of 17 should be maintained, if not expanded. Growth may slow down, but we have to put a value on the assets NIO has in the form of patents and technology.</p>\n<p>In conclusion, my price target for NIO would be $174/share by the end of 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Having said this, there are some potential risks that the company faces in today’s environment. Firstly, and even though I see this mostly as a strength, not having its own manufacturing facilities can be seen as a disadvantage. If push comes to shove, JAC could refuse to honour their manufacturing contract, though I am sure this would be expensive.</p>\n<p>On another note, it is still not clear how widely adopted BaaS technology will be. Traditional charging spots are getting more advanced and, thanks to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, these charging stations could soon provide much more competitive charging rates. Clearly, NIO will have to partner up with other manufacturers to make BaaS a worldwide reality.</p>\n<p>Lastly, it is worth mentioning that, despite the high growth and improving profitability, it is very much on the cards to see further shareholder dilution, something which the valuation above did not account for.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>NIO’s success over the last few years will ultimately be what makes the company successful in the future. NIO has found a way to innovate left, right and centre. It has changed the concept of charging through BaaS. It has also executed this innovation by building battery swap stations that are incredibly fast. It has innovated in terms of software and style, and I do not doubt that the company will continue to do so in the future. Ultimately, NIO is much more than an EV manufacturer and should be valued as such.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO: One EV Company To Rule Them All\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 09:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nNIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.\nThe company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.\nNIO commands high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434788-nio-one-ev-company-to-rule-them-all","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140305126","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO has unique characteristics that make it a superior player in the EV sector.\nThe company could find new avenues of monetization through BaaS and software licensing.\nNIO commands high valuation multiples and should continue to do so in the future. My price target for NIO is $174 by 2023-24.\n\nEoneren/E+ via Getty ImagesThesis Summary\nNIO Inc.,(NYSE:NIO)is a fast-growing Chinese EV company with some very unique characteristics. Despite its youth and relatively small size in terms of global EV sales, NIO looks like it could one day be one of the most relevant companies in the EV sector. NIO is much more than just an EV car manufacturer, as it is also one of the most innovative companies in the space. Revolutions in charging technology and proprietary software should help NIO establish a moat, a unique selling point and can potentially create new revenue sources.\nBaaS: Another Layer of Revenue\nI have already talked extensively about NIO’s core business in previous articles. Today, I’d like to start by focusing on the implications behind one NIO’s signature characteristic: Battery-as-a-Service. (BaaS)\nGranted, many articles have already covered this topic too. Normally though, these focus on BaaS vs regular charging, or how BaaS technology can make NIO cars more appealing. However, in this section, I am focusing on the implications BaaS can have on NIO’s revenue, as a completely separate business, which it could one day be.\nNIO’s BaaS offerings have come a very long way since the company first initiated this idea. In April, the company reached a deal with Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(NYSE:SHI)to create a vast network of battery swap stations. NIO aims to have over 5000 stations by 2024. Furthermore, the latest iteration of the BaaS charging system allows car-owners to swap the battery for a fully charged one in minutes and without even needing to exit their car. BaaS is the fastest way to achieve the level of convenience we have when refueling traditional gas cars, and it may perhaps be the only way.\nSo, the question is; Can NIO monetize its BaaS, and if so how would this look? The short answer to this question is yes. Ford Motors, Inc(NYSE:F)has already entered a deal with NIO to make use of NIO’s charging infrastructure.\nHaving said this, charging stations today are for the most part unprofitable. But these work a bit different from NIO’s BaaS system. A big problem with regular charging stations is that their cost of electricity is much higher than what you would pay if you charged your car at home during the night. BaaS, however, works around this, since the replacement batteries could be charged anywhere. On top of that, what we do know is that NIO will stand to benefit a lot more from this line of business thanks to government subsidies. It has been openly stated by the CCP that China is moving away from consumer-focused subsidies, in favour of infrastructure based subsidies.\nIt’s still early days, but if BaaS takes off, and other producers focus on this model, NIO could stand to gain a lot from this by being a source of infrastructure and technology. For example, NIO could play a key role in providing the necessary charging infrastructure for Europe, a market which it is just recently entering.\nNIO: Monetizing knowledge\nThe other key area where NIO excels, and many may not realize it, is technology and knowledge. Let’s make this clear with some numbers.\nAccording to data from Tencent Tech, NIO has 2768 patents in China, 204 in Europe and 193 patents in the United States. 1208 of the patents held in China are “innovation patents”. This is a significant fact, because “innovation patents” as classified by the Chinese are the ones whose content can be considered “groundbreaking”. To put these numbers into perspective, NIO holds more patents than rivals like Li Auto Inc.(NASDAQ:LI)and Xpeng Inc [XVEP].\nDiving deeper into these patents, we can see that most of these patents are related to the above-mentioned battery swap technology. Another hot topic of research today is autonomous driving. In this field, NIO has 47 patents, 64% of which are still pending. This is quite a small number if we compare it to Baidu, Inc(NASDAQ:BIDU), which boasts 632 patents. Lastly, I will note that I think one of the most successful areas where NIO is innovating is in terms of design and user interface/software. For example, the NIO ET7 features an `intelligent cockpit”, which is powered by NOMI, NIO’s artificial intelligence.\nWhat I am trying to say is that perhaps what some see as NIO’s weakness, could be one of its biggest strengths. Many analysts seem to have a problem with the fact that NIO doesn’t make its cars, but this aspect of the car business is becoming less and less relevant. The CEO of NVIDIA Corporation(NASDAQ:NVDA) has been quoted as saying that by 2025, cars will be sold at cost price, and it will be software sales that will provide these manufacturers revenue.\nIt seems like the traditional car is going the way of smartphones. Putting together the components is perhaps the least important of the value-adding activities here. What’s most relevant is the operating system and the value of the brand. NIO shines in both of these areas, and this is perhaps another way in which we could say NIO is quite similar to Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL).\nValuation\nI believe the above are two strong points that highlight that NIO has potential way beyond the production of cars. Having said this, it is very hard to quantify how these advancements in innovation will change NIO’s revenues and profitability in the future. What I propose here is a valuation where we value NIO at its most basic level, through revenues achieved from car sales. However, I will defend that the P/S multiple will remain much higher than that of its “peers” given the reasons stated above.\nNow, let’s start with revenues and sales. At its most core level, we can predict NIO’s revenues by looking at how many cars it will produce in the next few years, and we have a good idea of what this could be. Recently, NIO renewed its manufacturing agreement with Jianghuai Automobile Group [JAC]. Supposedly, the company will be doubling its production capacity to around 240.000 units per year, at least until May 2024.\nTherefore, a very simple forecast of NIO’s revenues could be made based on this simple production fact. In the next 3 years, NIO will have the capacity to produce 720.000 new cars. Will they be able to sell them all? In 2020, NIO sold 43,728 vehicles. Forwards growth estimates have NIO doubling in revenue in the next year, which, assuming all revenues come from car sales and the price stays the same, would mean selling 87.456 units. If we pulled back growth to around 80% for 2022 and 50% for 2023, we would have corresponding sales of 157,420 and 236,132. This kind of growth is close to current estimates, and fits in quite nicely with NIO’s plans, since it seems like, by the end of this period, when the manufacturing agreement ends, NIO would be selling at near full capacity. The important point I am trying to make here is that given this recent deal, investors should not be worried about NIO’s production constraints. Furthermore, it doesn’t seem like NIO will struggle from the demand side, especially as it plans to enter the European EV market.\nNow, the second point I will argue in this valuation, is that, given the changes in how the EV sector is shaping up, we should not apply industry multiples to a stock like NIO. In my previous article on the company, I did this and forecasted a price for 2030 of up to $400/share. However, a case can be made that NIO should command a premium in valuation. This is because the company is, quite literally, not making cars. Rather, it’s developing a brand, proprietary technology and also changing how we think about charging.\nCreating batteries for cars is a business in and of itself. A successful company in this sector is Contemporary Amperex Technology [CATL]. According to data from Market Screener,this company has an operating margin of 13%, grew revenues by 250% last year and trades at a P/E of 114 and a P/S of around 25.\nOn the other hand, as car manufacturers begin to focus on delivering cars with an integrated operating system and software, we may see company’s like NIO trade at valuation multiples more in line with that of SaaS companies. Companies that sell software, like Adobe, Inc.(NASDAQ:ADBE)or Salesforce.com(NYSE:CRM)trade at P/S multiples of 15-20.\nIf NIO were to sell 236,132 cars in 2023-2024 at an average price of $57,000, it would bring in $13,440 million in revenue. Assuming no dilution, this would imply roughly $10.25 of revenue/share. Given the fact that NIO could also begin to monetize its BaaS offerings, and that the company could even license its software and technology to other players, I feel like today’s P/S of 17 should be maintained, if not expanded. Growth may slow down, but we have to put a value on the assets NIO has in the form of patents and technology.\nIn conclusion, my price target for NIO would be $174/share by the end of 2023.\nRisks\nHaving said this, there are some potential risks that the company faces in today’s environment. Firstly, and even though I see this mostly as a strength, not having its own manufacturing facilities can be seen as a disadvantage. If push comes to shove, JAC could refuse to honour their manufacturing contract, though I am sure this would be expensive.\nOn another note, it is still not clear how widely adopted BaaS technology will be. Traditional charging spots are getting more advanced and, thanks to renewable sources of energy, such as solar, these charging stations could soon provide much more competitive charging rates. Clearly, NIO will have to partner up with other manufacturers to make BaaS a worldwide reality.\nLastly, it is worth mentioning that, despite the high growth and improving profitability, it is very much on the cards to see further shareholder dilution, something which the valuation above did not account for.\nTakeaway\nNIO’s success over the last few years will ultimately be what makes the company successful in the future. NIO has found a way to innovate left, right and centre. It has changed the concept of charging through BaaS. It has also executed this innovation by building battery swap stations that are incredibly fast. It has innovated in terms of software and style, and I do not doubt that the company will continue to do so in the future. Ultimately, NIO is much more than an EV manufacturer and should be valued as such.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187907974,"gmtCreate":1623733176898,"gmtModify":1704209902676,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ex game","listText":"Ex game","text":"Ex game","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187907974","repostId":"2143898782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143898782","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1623721807,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143898782?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Back to the future: 2020s to echo roaring 20s or inflationary 70s?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143898782","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - The 2020s have only just begun but there is already a rush to draw paral","content":"<p>LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - The 2020s have only just begun but there is already a rush to draw parallels with the past, prompted by a belief that COVID-19 will mark a turning point for the world economy and financial markets.</p>\n<p>For some, a post-pandemic economic boom accompanied with optimism about the future echoes the 1920s. Others reckon this decade is beginning to feel like the 1970s, as dormant inflation awakens.</p>\n<p>Whatever path the decade takes will of course matter for the trajectory of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.</p>\n<p>\"Changes, shifts and dynamics of narratives matter in the formation of long-term expectations and ultimately (market)prices,\" said Amundi CIO Pascal Blanque.</p>\n<p>Here's a look at which decade the 2020s could resemble.</p>\n<p><b>1. 1920s</b></p>\n<p>In the 1920s, technological and scientific advances led to mass production of goods and the electrification of America, alongside booming stock markets and wealth.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to the 2020s and the global economy is expected to grow 6% this year, a rate not seen since the 1970s. Stocks are near record highs, and tech valuations at their highest since the late 1990s dotcom peak. COVID-19 appears to be a catalyst for technological change, spurring digital adoption.</p>\n<p>No wonder parallels are drawn with the \"Roaring Twenties\".</p>\n<p>The 1920s ended with a stock market slump and economic depression, but economists believe policymakers have heeded lessons from the past and are unlikely to turn off the money taps too fast.</p>\n<p>\"A lot will come down to the extent to which monetary and fiscal stimulus translates into real productivity and improvement in structural growth rates,\" said Kiran Ganesh, head of multi asset, UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>\"Then we are in a roaring 20s scenario, but if the investment ends up wasted we are going back to the 2010s ...when it proved very hard to generate growth.\"</p>\n<p><b>2. 1930s</b></p>\n<p>The chances that the 2020s revisit the 1930s -- when households struggled to recover from a downturn, birth rates fell and inequality fuelled populism -- is a possibility but is not considered the most likely.</p>\n<p>Figures quoted by Oxfam show the world's billionaires became $3.9 trillion richer between March and December 2020 even as economies shrank and tens of millions of workers lost jobs.</p>\n<p>There are signs governments are trying to narrow yawning disparities.</p>\n<p>The world's richest economies back a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%. A $1.8 trillion American Families Plan is expected to lift more than 5 million children out of poverty.</p>\n<p>But birth rates are low. The U.S. fertility rate fell and remained below 2.5 in the 1930s. Today, that rate is at record lows around 1.6, below the roughly 2.1 replacement level.</p>\n<p>China had a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman in 2020, on par with ageing societies Japan and Italy. A COVID-led baby bust could further pressure public finances.</p>\n<p><b>3. 1970s</b></p>\n<p>If inflation returns after a long absence, surely the 1970s -- when oil prices soared and U.S. inflation hit double digits -- is a better fit?</p>\n<p>Fans of this scenario argue that hefty fiscal stimulus will give inflation in major economies a long-needed boost. BofA estimates, for example, that the U.S. government will spend $879 million every hour in 2021.</p>\n<p>Low wage pressure from Asia is also receding as ageing populations squeeze the supply of workers, boosting wages in developed economies.</p>\n<p>Bond investors need to be wary if inflation roars back, as do central banks which have not experienced inflationary pressures for decades.</p>\n<p>\"Many people think we are in the 1930s but I think we will wake up somewhere in the 70s,\" said Amundi's Blanque.</p>\n<p><b>4. 1980s or even 2010s</b></p>\n<p>Many economists agree the 2020s will mark a break with the \"small government\" 1980s as public spending increases are sustained to aid the post-virus recovery.</p>\n<p>They also think a rerun of the last decade, the 2010s, is unlikely, as governments ditch austerity and embrace a bigger role for the state in the economy.</p>\n<p>This all suggests a departure from the 1980s-style neo-liberal policies pursued by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, an ideology that has dominated market thinking ever since and shaped the decade after the 2008-2009 financial crisis.</p>\n<p>Agreement on a minimum global tax rate is evidence of a possible shift, although it is still early days.</p>\n<p>UniCredit chief economist Erik Nielsen said greater state involvement in the economy, whether via direct ownership, regulation or taxation, was a risk to growth but the details of any intervention mattered.</p>\n<p>\"One thing is clear, however: It'll lead to massive changes in relative growth between sectors and hence in investment opportunities,\" he said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBack to the future: 2020s to echo roaring 20s or inflationary 70s?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-15 09:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - The 2020s have only just begun but there is already a rush to draw parallels with the past, prompted by a belief that COVID-19 will mark a turning point for the world economy and financial markets.</p>\n<p>For some, a post-pandemic economic boom accompanied with optimism about the future echoes the 1920s. Others reckon this decade is beginning to feel like the 1970s, as dormant inflation awakens.</p>\n<p>Whatever path the decade takes will of course matter for the trajectory of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.</p>\n<p>\"Changes, shifts and dynamics of narratives matter in the formation of long-term expectations and ultimately (market)prices,\" said Amundi CIO Pascal Blanque.</p>\n<p>Here's a look at which decade the 2020s could resemble.</p>\n<p><b>1. 1920s</b></p>\n<p>In the 1920s, technological and scientific advances led to mass production of goods and the electrification of America, alongside booming stock markets and wealth.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to the 2020s and the global economy is expected to grow 6% this year, a rate not seen since the 1970s. Stocks are near record highs, and tech valuations at their highest since the late 1990s dotcom peak. COVID-19 appears to be a catalyst for technological change, spurring digital adoption.</p>\n<p>No wonder parallels are drawn with the \"Roaring Twenties\".</p>\n<p>The 1920s ended with a stock market slump and economic depression, but economists believe policymakers have heeded lessons from the past and are unlikely to turn off the money taps too fast.</p>\n<p>\"A lot will come down to the extent to which monetary and fiscal stimulus translates into real productivity and improvement in structural growth rates,\" said Kiran Ganesh, head of multi asset, UBS Global Wealth Management.</p>\n<p>\"Then we are in a roaring 20s scenario, but if the investment ends up wasted we are going back to the 2010s ...when it proved very hard to generate growth.\"</p>\n<p><b>2. 1930s</b></p>\n<p>The chances that the 2020s revisit the 1930s -- when households struggled to recover from a downturn, birth rates fell and inequality fuelled populism -- is a possibility but is not considered the most likely.</p>\n<p>Figures quoted by Oxfam show the world's billionaires became $3.9 trillion richer between March and December 2020 even as economies shrank and tens of millions of workers lost jobs.</p>\n<p>There are signs governments are trying to narrow yawning disparities.</p>\n<p>The world's richest economies back a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%. A $1.8 trillion American Families Plan is expected to lift more than 5 million children out of poverty.</p>\n<p>But birth rates are low. The U.S. fertility rate fell and remained below 2.5 in the 1930s. Today, that rate is at record lows around 1.6, below the roughly 2.1 replacement level.</p>\n<p>China had a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman in 2020, on par with ageing societies Japan and Italy. A COVID-led baby bust could further pressure public finances.</p>\n<p><b>3. 1970s</b></p>\n<p>If inflation returns after a long absence, surely the 1970s -- when oil prices soared and U.S. inflation hit double digits -- is a better fit?</p>\n<p>Fans of this scenario argue that hefty fiscal stimulus will give inflation in major economies a long-needed boost. BofA estimates, for example, that the U.S. government will spend $879 million every hour in 2021.</p>\n<p>Low wage pressure from Asia is also receding as ageing populations squeeze the supply of workers, boosting wages in developed economies.</p>\n<p>Bond investors need to be wary if inflation roars back, as do central banks which have not experienced inflationary pressures for decades.</p>\n<p>\"Many people think we are in the 1930s but I think we will wake up somewhere in the 70s,\" said Amundi's Blanque.</p>\n<p><b>4. 1980s or even 2010s</b></p>\n<p>Many economists agree the 2020s will mark a break with the \"small government\" 1980s as public spending increases are sustained to aid the post-virus recovery.</p>\n<p>They also think a rerun of the last decade, the 2010s, is unlikely, as governments ditch austerity and embrace a bigger role for the state in the economy.</p>\n<p>This all suggests a departure from the 1980s-style neo-liberal policies pursued by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, an ideology that has dominated market thinking ever since and shaped the decade after the 2008-2009 financial crisis.</p>\n<p>Agreement on a minimum global tax rate is evidence of a possible shift, although it is still early days.</p>\n<p>UniCredit chief economist Erik Nielsen said greater state involvement in the economy, whether via direct ownership, regulation or taxation, was a risk to growth but the details of any intervention mattered.</p>\n<p>\"One thing is clear, however: It'll lead to massive changes in relative growth between sectors and hence in investment opportunities,\" he said.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2143898782","content_text":"LONDON, June 14 (Reuters) - The 2020s have only just begun but there is already a rush to draw parallels with the past, prompted by a belief that COVID-19 will mark a turning point for the world economy and financial markets.\nFor some, a post-pandemic economic boom accompanied with optimism about the future echoes the 1920s. Others reckon this decade is beginning to feel like the 1970s, as dormant inflation awakens.\nWhatever path the decade takes will of course matter for the trajectory of stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.\n\"Changes, shifts and dynamics of narratives matter in the formation of long-term expectations and ultimately (market)prices,\" said Amundi CIO Pascal Blanque.\nHere's a look at which decade the 2020s could resemble.\n1. 1920s\nIn the 1920s, technological and scientific advances led to mass production of goods and the electrification of America, alongside booming stock markets and wealth.\nFast forward to the 2020s and the global economy is expected to grow 6% this year, a rate not seen since the 1970s. Stocks are near record highs, and tech valuations at their highest since the late 1990s dotcom peak. COVID-19 appears to be a catalyst for technological change, spurring digital adoption.\nNo wonder parallels are drawn with the \"Roaring Twenties\".\nThe 1920s ended with a stock market slump and economic depression, but economists believe policymakers have heeded lessons from the past and are unlikely to turn off the money taps too fast.\n\"A lot will come down to the extent to which monetary and fiscal stimulus translates into real productivity and improvement in structural growth rates,\" said Kiran Ganesh, head of multi asset, UBS Global Wealth Management.\n\"Then we are in a roaring 20s scenario, but if the investment ends up wasted we are going back to the 2010s ...when it proved very hard to generate growth.\"\n2. 1930s\nThe chances that the 2020s revisit the 1930s -- when households struggled to recover from a downturn, birth rates fell and inequality fuelled populism -- is a possibility but is not considered the most likely.\nFigures quoted by Oxfam show the world's billionaires became $3.9 trillion richer between March and December 2020 even as economies shrank and tens of millions of workers lost jobs.\nThere are signs governments are trying to narrow yawning disparities.\nThe world's richest economies back a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%. A $1.8 trillion American Families Plan is expected to lift more than 5 million children out of poverty.\nBut birth rates are low. The U.S. fertility rate fell and remained below 2.5 in the 1930s. Today, that rate is at record lows around 1.6, below the roughly 2.1 replacement level.\nChina had a fertility rate of 1.3 children per woman in 2020, on par with ageing societies Japan and Italy. A COVID-led baby bust could further pressure public finances.\n3. 1970s\nIf inflation returns after a long absence, surely the 1970s -- when oil prices soared and U.S. inflation hit double digits -- is a better fit?\nFans of this scenario argue that hefty fiscal stimulus will give inflation in major economies a long-needed boost. BofA estimates, for example, that the U.S. government will spend $879 million every hour in 2021.\nLow wage pressure from Asia is also receding as ageing populations squeeze the supply of workers, boosting wages in developed economies.\nBond investors need to be wary if inflation roars back, as do central banks which have not experienced inflationary pressures for decades.\n\"Many people think we are in the 1930s but I think we will wake up somewhere in the 70s,\" said Amundi's Blanque.\n4. 1980s or even 2010s\nMany economists agree the 2020s will mark a break with the \"small government\" 1980s as public spending increases are sustained to aid the post-virus recovery.\nThey also think a rerun of the last decade, the 2010s, is unlikely, as governments ditch austerity and embrace a bigger role for the state in the economy.\nThis all suggests a departure from the 1980s-style neo-liberal policies pursued by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, an ideology that has dominated market thinking ever since and shaped the decade after the 2008-2009 financial crisis.\nAgreement on a minimum global tax rate is evidence of a possible shift, although it is still early days.\nUniCredit chief economist Erik Nielsen said greater state involvement in the economy, whether via direct ownership, regulation or taxation, was a risk to growth but the details of any intervention mattered.\n\"One thing is clear, however: It'll lead to massive changes in relative growth between sectors and hence in investment opportunities,\" he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187904321,"gmtCreate":1623733156863,"gmtModify":1704209901546,"author":{"id":"3586078798795720","authorId":"3586078798795720","name":"jcjfxh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586078798795720","authorIdStr":"3586078798795720"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ex apple","listText":"Ex apple","text":"Ex apple","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187904321","repostId":"1167720481","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}