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Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns

2021-06-19

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[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814179197","repostId":"2164879370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164879370","pubTimestamp":1630678680,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2164879370?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Hypergrowth Stocks Expected to Increase Sales 1,185% to 12,629% by 2023","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164879370","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These fast-paced companies should generate jaw-dropping revenue growth over the next three years.","content":"<p>Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, growth stocks have thrived. Historically low lending rates, an ongoing quantitative easing program designed to weigh down long-term bond yields, and a free-spending Congress have all helped to make cheap capital widely abundant for businesses. This is helping to fuel acquisitions, hiring, and (most importantly) innovation.</p>\n<p>Yet for some companies, their exponential growth is just beginning. For each of the following hypergrowth stocks, Wall Street's consensus sales estimate for 2023, courtesy of <b>FactSet</b>, implies a revenue increase ranging from a low of 1,185% (yes, <i>a low of 1,185%</i>) to a high of 12,629%, compared to 2020 sales.</p>\n<h2>Moderna: Implied sales increase of 1,185%</h2>\n<p>Arguably the best-known name on this list is biotech <b>Moderna</b> (NASDAQ:MRNA). According to Wall Street, Moderna's annual revenue is expected to catapult from the $803.4 million recorded in 2020 to an estimated $10.33 billion in 2023. Interestingly, the $10.33 billion in projected sales for 2023 is about half of the $20.13 billion forecast this year.</p>\n<p>As a lot of you probably know, Modena's success is tied to the development of its coronavirus vaccine mRNA-1273. When the company ran a large-scale study of its COVID-19 vaccine, the results (released in November) demonstrated a vaccine efficacy (VE) of 94% and a strong propensity to keep vaccinated individuals from getting severe forms of the disease. This initial VE made Moderna's COVID vaccine a slam dunk for Emergency Use Authorization in the United States.</p>\n<p>When the company announced its second-quarter operating results on Aug. 5, it stuck to its original forecast of delivering between 800 million and 1 billion doses in 2021, with net product sales of around $20 billion. Next year, Moderna believes it can provide between 2 billion and 3 billion doses. As a reminder, the Moderna vaccine is a two-dose regimen, meaning its 2022 output could fully inoculate 1 billion to 1.5 billion people.</p>\n<p>Also working in Modena's favor is the possibility of booster vaccinations. The mutability of COVID, coupled with a handful of studies suggesting that VE begins waning at the six-month mark, could create a recurring vaccination need globally.</p>\n<p>While Moderna might sound like a surefire growth story, there are still big question marks about its future. For example, even though mRNA-1273 has been wildly successful, it's the only therapy that's generating sales for the company. Moderna's non-COVID pipeline looks to be years away from bringing in meaningful revenue.</p>\n<p>Equally concerning is the likelihood that the COVID vaccine space is going to become crowded. At some point soon, <b>Novavax</b>&nbsp;should join the field with a formidable initial VE of about 90%. It is also working on a combination COVID/influenza vaccine, which would be a differentiator and game changer.</p>\n<p>Not to take anything away from what Moderna has done, but a $150 billion market cap for a company with a single therapy seems awfully risky.</p>\n<h2><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZGNX\">Zogenix</a>: Implied sales increase of 2,451%</h2>\n<p>Another biotech stock that's expected to generate jaw-dropping sales growth through 2023 is small-cap <b>Zogenix</b> (NASDAQ:ZGNX). If Wall Street's consensus estimate proves accurate, the company's $13.64 million in reported sales in 2020 could grow to $348 million by 2023.</p>\n<p>Like Moderna, there's a single drug that looks to do all of the heavy lifting for Zogenix over the next couple of years: Fintepla. This is a drug targeted at a variety of seizure-related indications. It's already been approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat Dravet syndrome. And Zogenix has plans to file a supplemental new drug application by the end of the current quarter to expand Fintepla's label to include Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS). Both Dravet and LGS are rare forms of childhood-onset epilepsy. If approved, Zogenix could launch Fintepla for LGS patients in this country by as early as the first half of 2022.</p>\n<p>And Zogenix still isn't done with Fintepla. After hashing out the finer points with the FDA, the company intends to initiate a phase 3 study involving Fintepla as a treatment for CDKL5 deficiency disorder before the end of the year. Thus, organic growth and label expansion opportunities are expected to fuel sales of Fintepla to almost $350 million in three years.</p>\n<p>What'll be particularly interesting is how Zogenix fares against cannabinoid-focused drug developer GW Pharmaceuticals, which was acquired by <b>Jazz Pharmaceuticals</b> (NASDAQ:JAZZ) in May. GW's lead drug, Epidiolex, is a cannabidiol-based treatment that's been approved by the FDA to treat Dravet syndrome and LGS, and it launched in advance of Zogenix's Fintepla. For comparative purposes, Jazz announced that Epidiolex brought home $155.9 million in sales just in the second quarter, although it has an additional indication under its belt (tuberous sclerosis complex) where it won't compete against Zogenix.</p>\n<p>Although Epidiolex appears to have the upper hand now, it's worth noting that seizure-reduction efficacy for Fintepla looked very promising in late-stage clinical trials. To be 100% clear, the GW Pharma and Zogenix studies were never pitted head-to-head, and their baseline parameters are different. Nevertheless, Fintepla led to a 62.3% reduction in mean monthly convulsive seizure frequency compared to placebo at the six-week mark for Dravet syndrome patients.</p>\n<p>Comparatively, Jazz's Epidiolex demonstrated reductions in seizure frequency from baseline of 56% and 47%, respectively, for the lower- and higher-dose treatments in phase 3 studies in Dravet syndrome patients.&nbsp; Suffice it to say, these could be highly competitive indications for the foreseeable future.</p>\n<h2>Marathon Digital Holdings: Implied sales increase of 12,629%</h2>\n<p>Now, if you want pedal-to-the-metal growth, look no further than <b>Marathon Digital Holdings</b> (NASDAQ:MARA). After reporting a meager $4.36 million in sales in 2020, Wall Street anticipates full-year sales will climb to $555 million by 2023. That's an increase of 12,629%.</p>\n<p>If you're wondering how sales growth of this magnitude is possible for a company not involved in drug development, look no further than cryptocurrencies.</p>\n<p>Marathon Digital is a cryptocurrency mining company. It operates a farm of high-powered computing devices designed to solve complex mathematical equations that validate groups of transactions (known as a block) as valid on a digital currency's blockchain. For being the first to validate a block, Marathon is paid a block reward. This reward is typically a set amount of digital tokens from the digital currency being mined.</p>\n<p>In Marathon's case, it's mining <b>Bitcoin</b> (CRYPTO:BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the world by market cap. Being the first to mine a Bitcoin block results in the company being awarded 6.25 Bitcoin tokens, which were worth a cool $292,000, as of Aug. 30.</p>\n<p>The reason Marathon's sales are skyrocketing so quickly is because it's in the midst of deploying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the largest Bitcoin-mining operations in the United States. As of the beginning of August, approximately 30,100 miners were operating, with another 103,000 ordered and yet to be installed. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, Marathon should have north of 100,000 miners in operation, with all 133,120 up and running by July 2022.</p>\n<p>Though Marathon is the fastest-growing of these three hypergrowth stocks, it's also arguably the most dangerous investment of this trio. That's because it's entirely dependent on external factors, such as interest in, and the price of, Bitcoin -- and not innovation.</p>\n<p>What's more, the barrier to entry in the cryptocurrency mining space is virtually nonexistent. As time passes, it's going to be tougher for Marathon to successfully mine Bitcoin.</p>\n<p>As the icing on the cake, Bitcoin's block rewards halve every four years. By 2024, only 3.125 Bitcoin tokens will be paid for validating a block. Essentially, Marathon is competing against a growing number of mining companies for a reward that's shrinking. It simply doesn't sound like an operating model with long-term staying power.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Hypergrowth Stocks Expected to Increase Sales 1,185% to 12,629% by 2023</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Hypergrowth Stocks Expected to Increase Sales 1,185% to 12,629% by 2023\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 22:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/03/3-hypergrowth-stocks-increase-sales-1185-to-12629/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, growth stocks have thrived. Historically low lending rates, an ongoing quantitative easing program designed to weigh down long-term bond yields, and a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/03/3-hypergrowth-stocks-increase-sales-1185-to-12629/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZGNX":"Zogenix","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/03/3-hypergrowth-stocks-increase-sales-1185-to-12629/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164879370","content_text":"Since the end of the Great Recession in 2009, growth stocks have thrived. Historically low lending rates, an ongoing quantitative easing program designed to weigh down long-term bond yields, and a free-spending Congress have all helped to make cheap capital widely abundant for businesses. This is helping to fuel acquisitions, hiring, and (most importantly) innovation.\nYet for some companies, their exponential growth is just beginning. For each of the following hypergrowth stocks, Wall Street's consensus sales estimate for 2023, courtesy of FactSet, implies a revenue increase ranging from a low of 1,185% (yes, a low of 1,185%) to a high of 12,629%, compared to 2020 sales.\nModerna: Implied sales increase of 1,185%\nArguably the best-known name on this list is biotech Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA). According to Wall Street, Moderna's annual revenue is expected to catapult from the $803.4 million recorded in 2020 to an estimated $10.33 billion in 2023. Interestingly, the $10.33 billion in projected sales for 2023 is about half of the $20.13 billion forecast this year.\nAs a lot of you probably know, Modena's success is tied to the development of its coronavirus vaccine mRNA-1273. When the company ran a large-scale study of its COVID-19 vaccine, the results (released in November) demonstrated a vaccine efficacy (VE) of 94% and a strong propensity to keep vaccinated individuals from getting severe forms of the disease. This initial VE made Moderna's COVID vaccine a slam dunk for Emergency Use Authorization in the United States.\nWhen the company announced its second-quarter operating results on Aug. 5, it stuck to its original forecast of delivering between 800 million and 1 billion doses in 2021, with net product sales of around $20 billion. Next year, Moderna believes it can provide between 2 billion and 3 billion doses. As a reminder, the Moderna vaccine is a two-dose regimen, meaning its 2022 output could fully inoculate 1 billion to 1.5 billion people.\nAlso working in Modena's favor is the possibility of booster vaccinations. The mutability of COVID, coupled with a handful of studies suggesting that VE begins waning at the six-month mark, could create a recurring vaccination need globally.\nWhile Moderna might sound like a surefire growth story, there are still big question marks about its future. For example, even though mRNA-1273 has been wildly successful, it's the only therapy that's generating sales for the company. Moderna's non-COVID pipeline looks to be years away from bringing in meaningful revenue.\nEqually concerning is the likelihood that the COVID vaccine space is going to become crowded. At some point soon, Novavax should join the field with a formidable initial VE of about 90%. It is also working on a combination COVID/influenza vaccine, which would be a differentiator and game changer.\nNot to take anything away from what Moderna has done, but a $150 billion market cap for a company with a single therapy seems awfully risky.\nZogenix: Implied sales increase of 2,451%\nAnother biotech stock that's expected to generate jaw-dropping sales growth through 2023 is small-cap Zogenix (NASDAQ:ZGNX). If Wall Street's consensus estimate proves accurate, the company's $13.64 million in reported sales in 2020 could grow to $348 million by 2023.\nLike Moderna, there's a single drug that looks to do all of the heavy lifting for Zogenix over the next couple of years: Fintepla. This is a drug targeted at a variety of seizure-related indications. It's already been approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat Dravet syndrome. And Zogenix has plans to file a supplemental new drug application by the end of the current quarter to expand Fintepla's label to include Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS). Both Dravet and LGS are rare forms of childhood-onset epilepsy. If approved, Zogenix could launch Fintepla for LGS patients in this country by as early as the first half of 2022.\nAnd Zogenix still isn't done with Fintepla. After hashing out the finer points with the FDA, the company intends to initiate a phase 3 study involving Fintepla as a treatment for CDKL5 deficiency disorder before the end of the year. Thus, organic growth and label expansion opportunities are expected to fuel sales of Fintepla to almost $350 million in three years.\nWhat'll be particularly interesting is how Zogenix fares against cannabinoid-focused drug developer GW Pharmaceuticals, which was acquired by Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:JAZZ) in May. GW's lead drug, Epidiolex, is a cannabidiol-based treatment that's been approved by the FDA to treat Dravet syndrome and LGS, and it launched in advance of Zogenix's Fintepla. For comparative purposes, Jazz announced that Epidiolex brought home $155.9 million in sales just in the second quarter, although it has an additional indication under its belt (tuberous sclerosis complex) where it won't compete against Zogenix.\nAlthough Epidiolex appears to have the upper hand now, it's worth noting that seizure-reduction efficacy for Fintepla looked very promising in late-stage clinical trials. To be 100% clear, the GW Pharma and Zogenix studies were never pitted head-to-head, and their baseline parameters are different. Nevertheless, Fintepla led to a 62.3% reduction in mean monthly convulsive seizure frequency compared to placebo at the six-week mark for Dravet syndrome patients.\nComparatively, Jazz's Epidiolex demonstrated reductions in seizure frequency from baseline of 56% and 47%, respectively, for the lower- and higher-dose treatments in phase 3 studies in Dravet syndrome patients.  Suffice it to say, these could be highly competitive indications for the foreseeable future.\nMarathon Digital Holdings: Implied sales increase of 12,629%\nNow, if you want pedal-to-the-metal growth, look no further than Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA). After reporting a meager $4.36 million in sales in 2020, Wall Street anticipates full-year sales will climb to $555 million by 2023. That's an increase of 12,629%.\nIf you're wondering how sales growth of this magnitude is possible for a company not involved in drug development, look no further than cryptocurrencies.\nMarathon Digital is a cryptocurrency mining company. It operates a farm of high-powered computing devices designed to solve complex mathematical equations that validate groups of transactions (known as a block) as valid on a digital currency's blockchain. For being the first to validate a block, Marathon is paid a block reward. This reward is typically a set amount of digital tokens from the digital currency being mined.\nIn Marathon's case, it's mining Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in the world by market cap. Being the first to mine a Bitcoin block results in the company being awarded 6.25 Bitcoin tokens, which were worth a cool $292,000, as of Aug. 30.\nThe reason Marathon's sales are skyrocketing so quickly is because it's in the midst of deploying one of the largest Bitcoin-mining operations in the United States. As of the beginning of August, approximately 30,100 miners were operating, with another 103,000 ordered and yet to be installed. By the end of the first quarter of 2022, Marathon should have north of 100,000 miners in operation, with all 133,120 up and running by July 2022.\nThough Marathon is the fastest-growing of these three hypergrowth stocks, it's also arguably the most dangerous investment of this trio. That's because it's entirely dependent on external factors, such as interest in, and the price of, Bitcoin -- and not innovation.\nWhat's more, the barrier to entry in the cryptocurrency mining space is virtually nonexistent. As time passes, it's going to be tougher for Marathon to successfully mine Bitcoin.\nAs the icing on the cake, Bitcoin's block rewards halve every four years. By 2024, only 3.125 Bitcoin tokens will be paid for validating a block. Essentially, Marathon is competing against a growing number of mining companies for a reward that's shrinking. It simply doesn't sound like an operating model with long-term staying power.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815989146,"gmtCreate":1630635320585,"gmtModify":1676530362262,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Sweats]&nbsp;[Sweats]&nbsp;","listText":"[Sweats]&nbsp;[Sweats]&nbsp;","text":"[Sweats] [Sweats]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815989146","repostId":"1186835624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186835624","pubTimestamp":1630625981,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186835624?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-03 07:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forte Biosciences' shares fall 82% after scrapping development of FB-401 treatment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186835624","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Forte Biosciences announces that it will not continue to advance the development of its atopic derma","content":"<p>Forte Biosciences&nbsp;announces that it&nbsp;will not continue to advance the development of its atopic dermatitis treatment FB-401 following mid-stage trial results.</p>\n<p>Shares slide nearly&nbsp;82%&nbsp;post market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba305cccf4317784780adcba0d37993e\" tg-width=\"1020\" tg-height=\"522\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>In the phase 2 study, the drug failed to meet statistical significance for the primary endpoint of EASI-50 (the proportion of patients with at least a 50% improvement in atopic dermatitis disease severity as measure by EASI), the company said.</p>\n<p>\"The topline data is disappointing and we will continue to analyze the data; however, given this readout we will not continue to advance FB-401,\" CEO Paul Wagner said.</p>\n<p>Forte Biosciences previously reported that it had cash and cash equivalents of $50.8M as of June 30, 2021.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forte Biosciences' shares fall 82% after scrapping development of FB-401 treatment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForte Biosciences' shares fall 82% after scrapping development of FB-401 treatment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-03 07:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3736993-forte-biosciences-shares-fall-12-after-scrapping-development-of-fb-401-treatment><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Forte Biosciences announces that it will not continue to advance the development of its atopic dermatitis treatment FB-401 following mid-stage trial results.\nShares slide nearly 82% post market.\n\nIn ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3736993-forte-biosciences-shares-fall-12-after-scrapping-development-of-fb-401-treatment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FBRX":"Forte BioSciences Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3736993-forte-biosciences-shares-fall-12-after-scrapping-development-of-fb-401-treatment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1186835624","content_text":"Forte Biosciences announces that it will not continue to advance the development of its atopic dermatitis treatment FB-401 following mid-stage trial results.\nShares slide nearly 82% post market.\n\nIn the phase 2 study, the drug failed to meet statistical significance for the primary endpoint of EASI-50 (the proportion of patients with at least a 50% improvement in atopic dermatitis disease severity as measure by EASI), the company said.\n\"The topline data is disappointing and we will continue to analyze the data; however, given this readout we will not continue to advance FB-401,\" CEO Paul Wagner said.\nForte Biosciences previously reported that it had cash and cash equivalents of $50.8M as of June 30, 2021.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812959502,"gmtCreate":1630548113206,"gmtModify":1676530336707,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812959502","repostId":"1110351476","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110351476","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630510441,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1110351476?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-01 23:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Focus Universal Inc. shares surged nearly 230%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110351476","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Focus Universal Inc. shares surged nearly 230%. The stock started trading on Nasdaq Capital Market y","content":"<p>Focus&nbsp;Universal&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surged&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;230%. The stock started trading on Nasdaq Capital Market yesterday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20952cc6988ab208c1e782cf45b91b1a\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Focus Universal Inc. &nbsp;is a provider of patented hardware and software design technologies for Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G. The company has developed four disruptive patented technologies to solve the major problems facing hardware design, hardware production, software design and network communication facing both industries today. These technologies combined have potential to reduce costs, product development timelines and energy usage, while increasing range, speed, efficiency and security.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Focus Universal Inc. shares surged nearly 230%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFocus Universal Inc. shares surged nearly 230%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-01 23:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Focus&nbsp;Universal&nbsp;Inc.&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surged&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;230%. The stock started trading on Nasdaq Capital Market yesterday.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20952cc6988ab208c1e782cf45b91b1a\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Focus Universal Inc. &nbsp;is a provider of patented hardware and software design technologies for Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G. The company has developed four disruptive patented technologies to solve the major problems facing hardware design, hardware production, software design and network communication facing both industries today. These technologies combined have potential to reduce costs, product development timelines and energy usage, while increasing range, speed, efficiency and security.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FCUV":"Focus Universal, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110351476","content_text":"Focus Universal Inc. shares surged nearly 230%. The stock started trading on Nasdaq Capital Market yesterday.\nFocus Universal Inc.  is a provider of patented hardware and software design technologies for Internet of Things (IoT) and 5G. The company has developed four disruptive patented technologies to solve the major problems facing hardware design, hardware production, software design and network communication facing both industries today. These technologies combined have potential to reduce costs, product development timelines and energy usage, while increasing range, speed, efficiency and security.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156125256,"gmtCreate":1625204194975,"gmtModify":1703738317504,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Eye]&nbsp;[Eye]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Eye]&nbsp;[Eye]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Eye] [Eye] [Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156125256","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148840288","pubTimestamp":1625139913,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148840288?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 19:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148840288","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Retail investors can't stop buying into these companies.","content":"<p>Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based <b>S&amp;P 500</b> shedding 34% of its value in about a month during the first quarter of 2020, we've watched the benchmark index catapult more than 90% off of its lows.</p>\n<p>For some investors, volatility is something they fear. But for predominantly young and novice retail investors, volatility is the impetus that's driven them to put their money to work in the stock market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b3853458b2424e2901821012f5502f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>As volatility has whipsawed the market, these younger retail investors have found their home with online investing app Robinhood. We know this because Robinhood added approximately 3 million new users in 2020.</p>\n<p>There are a number of lures for retail investors with Robinhood. For example, Robinhood doesn't charge a commission when stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange or <b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;exchange are bought or sold. Robinhood is also <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of many brokerages that allows for fractional share investing. And, who can forget that Robinhood also gifts free shares of stock to new users.</p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> respect, it's a fantastic thing to see young people putting their money to work. Time is the biggest ally investors have. The earlier they start putting their money to work, the better chance they have of compounding their nest egg.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Robinhood's retail investors have been buying some really awful stocks. Instead of thinking for the long-term, their buying activity demonstrates a willingness to chase momentum plays, penny stocks, and money-losing businesses.</p>\n<p>If you don't believe me, here's a closer look at the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks as we enter July.</p>\n<table width=\"492\">\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Company</th>\n   <th>Company</th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>1. <b>Tesla Motors</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA)</td>\n   <td>26. <b>Snap&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2. <b>Apple&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>27. <b>Alibaba&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3. <b>AMC Entertainment</b> (NYSE:AMC)</td>\n   <td>28. <b>Bank of America</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>4. <b>Sundial Growers</b> (NASDAQ:SNDL)</td>\n   <td>29. <b>OrganiGram Holdings</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5. <b>Ford Motor</b></td>\n   <td>30. <b>Coinbase Global</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>6. <b>General Electric</b></td>\n   <td>31. <b>Tilray&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>7. <b>NIO&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>32. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>8. <b>Walt Disney</b></td>\n   <td>33. <b>Canopy Growth&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>9. <b>Microsoft</b></td>\n   <td>34. <b>Advanced Micro Devices</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>10. <b>Amazon&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>35. <b>Starbucks</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>11. <b>American Airlines Group</b> (NASDAQ:AAL)</td>\n   <td>36. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a></b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>12. <b>Plug Power</b></td>\n   <td>37. <b>AT&amp;T</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>13. <b>Nokia</b></td>\n   <td>38. <b>Moderna</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>14. <b>Carnival</b></td>\n   <td>39. <b>NVIDIA</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15. <b>Aurora Cannabis</b> (NASDAQ:ACB)</td>\n   <td>40. <b>FuelCell Energy</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>16. <b>Pfizer</b></td>\n   <td>41. <b>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>17. <b>Zomedica&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>42. <b>Coca-Cola</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>18. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPRO\">GoPro</a>&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>43. <b>Norwegian Cruise Line</b> (NYSE:NCLH)</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>19. <b>Naked Brand Group</b></td>\n   <td>44. <b>Ideanomics</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20. <b>Palantir Technologies</b></td>\n   <td>45. <b>Workhorse Group</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>21. <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME)</td>\n   <td>46. <b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>22. <b>Delta Air Lines&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>47. <b>Virgin Galactic</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>23. <b>BlackBerry</b></td>\n   <td>48. <b>General Motors</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>24. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a></b></td>\n   <td>49. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNGA\">Zynga</a></b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25. <b>Netflix&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>50. <b>United Airlines</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Robinhood, as of June 26, 2021. Table by author.</p>\n<h2>Continuing to chase meme stocks</h2>\n<p>Like bees to honey, retail investors have been inseparable from meme stocks for almost six months. A meme stock is a company valued more for its social media favorability/hype than its operating performance.</p>\n<p>Since mid-January, retail investors have been banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. In many instances, companies with high levels of short interest have poor-performing businesses. This is how we've witnessed GameStop and AMC Entertainment become extremely popular on Robinhood.</p>\n<p>The good news for GameStop is that it's been able to use its monumental run to sell shares of common stock and raise capital. It's completely erased its debt and given itself more than enough cash to oversee its ongoing transformation into a digital gaming company. To be clear, this doesn't negate the fact that GameStop's previous management team completely dropped the ball on the shift to digital gaming. What it does do is give the company enough capital to at least attempt a transformation.</p>\n<p>The same can't be said for AMC, which sold the vast majority of its shares six months ago to avoid bankruptcy. Even with a handful of recent capital raises, AMC has well over $3 billion in net debt, and its 2027 bond prices indicate the company is still a bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>To make matters worse, movie theater ticket sales have been in a 19-year decline. Even with a larger share of the movie theater industry, AMC's pie is shrinking. It's pretty clear that social media hype, ignorance of fundamental data, and misinformation are the key drivers behind AMC's irrational rally.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc514068ded899a817770f684369db36\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Canadian cannabis binge</h2>\n<p>Robinhood's retail investors also have quite the crush on Canadian marijuana stocks. Five of the 33 most-held companies on Robinhood's leaderboard hail from our neighbor to the north.</p>\n<p>Even though cannabis-focused research company BDSA has forecasted weed sales growth in Canada from $2.6 billion in 2020 to $6.4 billion by 2026, the Canadian pot industry has been a disaster. Regulators have caused all sorts of supply chain issues, consumers have flocked to lower-margin value brands, and Canadian marijuana stocks overzealously expanded and, in some instances, decimated their balance sheets in the process.</p>\n<p>Robinhood investors' fascination with Sundial Growers is nothing short of frustrating. It may well be the single most-avoidable marijuana stock. Although its management team was able to pay off the company's existing debt by issuing stock and conducting debt-for-equity swaps, these share offerings simply haven't stopped. In a little over a seven-month stretch, more than 1.35 billion shares were issued. Sundial is showing zero regard for its shareholders, and its management team hasn't even laid out a concrete plan for how it'll spend its cash.</p>\n<p>We've seen similar issues from Aurora Cannabis, the second most-popular Canadian weed stock. Once the most-held stock on Robinhood, Aurora has drowned its shareholders in dilution. Even after selling one of its greenhouses and shuttering a number of other cultivation facilities, its cost-cutting has put it nowhere near close to generating a profit. As long as Aurora keeps burning through cash, its management team will continue to issue stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e9f554fbd3314fbbb8ba78c5a65d3e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\"><span>Image source: American Airlines.</span></p>\n<h2>An obsession with travel companies</h2>\n<p>Another absolute head-scratcher is Robinhood investors' obsession with travel companies -- specifically airlines and cruise ship operators.</p>\n<p>On one hand, the case could be made that the coronavirus pandemic overly punished the travel industry. Though we remain firmly in a global pandemic, increased domestic vaccination rates offer hope that the U.S. could soon put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For instance, the Transportation Security Administration screened over 2 million passengers in a single day in mid-June for the first time since before the pandemic was declared.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, the travel industry tends to be built on mediocre margins, at best, and it typically requires the economy to be running on all cylinders. Despite recovering from a recession, most airline stocks are now lugging around billions in extra debt that they didn't have two years ago. American Airlines, which I've previously anointed as the worst airline stock, has $34 billion in net debt and $48 billion in aggregate debt. The interest American Airlines is going to have to pay to service this debt could cripple its growth initiatives for the next decade.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, companies like Norwegian Cruise Line came perilously close to bankruptcy during the pandemic. Unlike airlines, which are essential for business travel, cruise ships aren't essential. They'll remain at the mercy of the pandemic until it's firmly in the rearview mirror. That means Norwegian may continue losing money well into 2022, if not beyond.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd808070a9dde55f37210b59edc2e23\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>A Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.</span></p>\n<h2>Alternative energy for autos in focus</h2>\n<p>Lastly, Robinhood investors appear to be going all-in on anything that has to do with alternative/clean energy for vehicles.</p>\n<p>Electric vehicle (EV) kingpin Tesla has surpassed Apple to become the most-held stock on the platform, while Ford, General Motors, Workhorse Group, NIO, and Churchill Capital are other EV producers that found their way into the top 50 leaderboard (GM and Ford predominantly produce combustion-engine vehicles at the moment). If we also include Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Ideanomics, that's nine of the top 48 Robinhood stocks that are devoted to alternative energy adoption for autos.</p>\n<p>There's pretty much no question at this point that EVs and potentially hydrogen fuel cells represent the future of the automotive industry. There's a multi-decade opportunity for consumers and enterprise fleets to switch over to alternative solutions, as well as for ancillary players to build the infrastructure necessary to support EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.</p>\n<p>The issue is that investors have a tendency to overestimate how quickly new technology is adopted, and that's likely what we're witnessing with EVs. The fact that Tesla is worth $647 billion is ludicrous considering that it hasn't demonstrated it can generate a profit from selling its EVs. The only way Tesla has been able to generate a profit is by selling renewable energy credits or taking a one-time benefit from the sale of <b>Bitcoin</b>.</p>\n<p>The EV space is growing increasingly more crowded, and the major auto stocks are investing tens of billions into new models. It's unlikely that Tesla will be able to hold onto its competitive edge for much longer.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 19:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based S&P 500 shedding 34% of its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ACB":"奥罗拉大麻公司","NIO":"蔚来","MSFT":"微软","GPRO":"GoPro","GE":"GE航空航天","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","ZOM":"Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.","AAPL":"苹果","NOK":"诺基亚","AAL":"美国航空","F":"福特汽车","PLUG":"普拉格能源","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","PFE":"辉瑞","AMZN":"亚马逊","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","DIS":"迪士尼","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148840288","content_text":"Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based S&P 500 shedding 34% of its value in about a month during the first quarter of 2020, we've watched the benchmark index catapult more than 90% off of its lows.\nFor some investors, volatility is something they fear. But for predominantly young and novice retail investors, volatility is the impetus that's driven them to put their money to work in the stock market.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nAs volatility has whipsawed the market, these younger retail investors have found their home with online investing app Robinhood. We know this because Robinhood added approximately 3 million new users in 2020.\nThere are a number of lures for retail investors with Robinhood. For example, Robinhood doesn't charge a commission when stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq exchange are bought or sold. Robinhood is also one of many brokerages that allows for fractional share investing. And, who can forget that Robinhood also gifts free shares of stock to new users.\nIn one respect, it's a fantastic thing to see young people putting their money to work. Time is the biggest ally investors have. The earlier they start putting their money to work, the better chance they have of compounding their nest egg.\nOn the other hand, Robinhood's retail investors have been buying some really awful stocks. Instead of thinking for the long-term, their buying activity demonstrates a willingness to chase momentum plays, penny stocks, and money-losing businesses.\nIf you don't believe me, here's a closer look at the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks as we enter July.\n\n\n\nCompany\nCompany\n\n\n\n\n1. Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA)\n26. Snap \n\n\n2. Apple \n27. Alibaba \n\n\n3. AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC)\n28. Bank of America\n\n\n4. Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL)\n29. OrganiGram Holdings\n\n\n5. Ford Motor\n30. Coinbase Global\n\n\n6. General Electric\n31. Tilray \n\n\n7. NIO \n32. Facebook \n\n\n8. Walt Disney\n33. Canopy Growth \n\n\n9. Microsoft\n34. Advanced Micro Devices\n\n\n10. Amazon \n35. Starbucks\n\n\n11. American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL)\n36. Twitter\n\n\n12. Plug Power\n37. AT&T\n\n\n13. Nokia\n38. Moderna\n\n\n14. Carnival\n39. NVIDIA\n\n\n15. Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB)\n40. FuelCell Energy\n\n\n16. Pfizer\n41. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF\n\n\n17. Zomedica \n42. Coca-Cola\n\n\n18. GoPro \n43. Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH)\n\n\n19. Naked Brand Group\n44. Ideanomics\n\n\n20. Palantir Technologies\n45. Workhorse Group\n\n\n21. GameStop (NYSE:GME)\n46. SPDR S&P 500 ETF\n\n\n22. Delta Air Lines \n47. Virgin Galactic\n\n\n23. BlackBerry\n48. General Motors\n\n\n24. Churchill Capital\n49. Zynga\n\n\n25. Netflix \n50. United Airlines\n\n\n\nData source: Robinhood, as of June 26, 2021. Table by author.\nContinuing to chase meme stocks\nLike bees to honey, retail investors have been inseparable from meme stocks for almost six months. A meme stock is a company valued more for its social media favorability/hype than its operating performance.\nSince mid-January, retail investors have been banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. In many instances, companies with high levels of short interest have poor-performing businesses. This is how we've witnessed GameStop and AMC Entertainment become extremely popular on Robinhood.\nThe good news for GameStop is that it's been able to use its monumental run to sell shares of common stock and raise capital. It's completely erased its debt and given itself more than enough cash to oversee its ongoing transformation into a digital gaming company. To be clear, this doesn't negate the fact that GameStop's previous management team completely dropped the ball on the shift to digital gaming. What it does do is give the company enough capital to at least attempt a transformation.\nThe same can't be said for AMC, which sold the vast majority of its shares six months ago to avoid bankruptcy. Even with a handful of recent capital raises, AMC has well over $3 billion in net debt, and its 2027 bond prices indicate the company is still a bankruptcy risk.\nTo make matters worse, movie theater ticket sales have been in a 19-year decline. Even with a larger share of the movie theater industry, AMC's pie is shrinking. It's pretty clear that social media hype, ignorance of fundamental data, and misinformation are the key drivers behind AMC's irrational rally.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nCanadian cannabis binge\nRobinhood's retail investors also have quite the crush on Canadian marijuana stocks. Five of the 33 most-held companies on Robinhood's leaderboard hail from our neighbor to the north.\nEven though cannabis-focused research company BDSA has forecasted weed sales growth in Canada from $2.6 billion in 2020 to $6.4 billion by 2026, the Canadian pot industry has been a disaster. Regulators have caused all sorts of supply chain issues, consumers have flocked to lower-margin value brands, and Canadian marijuana stocks overzealously expanded and, in some instances, decimated their balance sheets in the process.\nRobinhood investors' fascination with Sundial Growers is nothing short of frustrating. It may well be the single most-avoidable marijuana stock. Although its management team was able to pay off the company's existing debt by issuing stock and conducting debt-for-equity swaps, these share offerings simply haven't stopped. In a little over a seven-month stretch, more than 1.35 billion shares were issued. Sundial is showing zero regard for its shareholders, and its management team hasn't even laid out a concrete plan for how it'll spend its cash.\nWe've seen similar issues from Aurora Cannabis, the second most-popular Canadian weed stock. Once the most-held stock on Robinhood, Aurora has drowned its shareholders in dilution. Even after selling one of its greenhouses and shuttering a number of other cultivation facilities, its cost-cutting has put it nowhere near close to generating a profit. As long as Aurora keeps burning through cash, its management team will continue to issue stock.\nImage source: American Airlines.\nAn obsession with travel companies\nAnother absolute head-scratcher is Robinhood investors' obsession with travel companies -- specifically airlines and cruise ship operators.\nOn one hand, the case could be made that the coronavirus pandemic overly punished the travel industry. Though we remain firmly in a global pandemic, increased domestic vaccination rates offer hope that the U.S. could soon put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For instance, the Transportation Security Administration screened over 2 million passengers in a single day in mid-June for the first time since before the pandemic was declared.\nOn the other hand, the travel industry tends to be built on mediocre margins, at best, and it typically requires the economy to be running on all cylinders. Despite recovering from a recession, most airline stocks are now lugging around billions in extra debt that they didn't have two years ago. American Airlines, which I've previously anointed as the worst airline stock, has $34 billion in net debt and $48 billion in aggregate debt. The interest American Airlines is going to have to pay to service this debt could cripple its growth initiatives for the next decade.\nMeanwhile, companies like Norwegian Cruise Line came perilously close to bankruptcy during the pandemic. Unlike airlines, which are essential for business travel, cruise ships aren't essential. They'll remain at the mercy of the pandemic until it's firmly in the rearview mirror. That means Norwegian may continue losing money well into 2022, if not beyond.\nA Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.\nAlternative energy for autos in focus\nLastly, Robinhood investors appear to be going all-in on anything that has to do with alternative/clean energy for vehicles.\nElectric vehicle (EV) kingpin Tesla has surpassed Apple to become the most-held stock on the platform, while Ford, General Motors, Workhorse Group, NIO, and Churchill Capital are other EV producers that found their way into the top 50 leaderboard (GM and Ford predominantly produce combustion-engine vehicles at the moment). If we also include Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Ideanomics, that's nine of the top 48 Robinhood stocks that are devoted to alternative energy adoption for autos.\nThere's pretty much no question at this point that EVs and potentially hydrogen fuel cells represent the future of the automotive industry. There's a multi-decade opportunity for consumers and enterprise fleets to switch over to alternative solutions, as well as for ancillary players to build the infrastructure necessary to support EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.\nThe issue is that investors have a tendency to overestimate how quickly new technology is adopted, and that's likely what we're witnessing with EVs. The fact that Tesla is worth $647 billion is ludicrous considering that it hasn't demonstrated it can generate a profit from selling its EVs. The only way Tesla has been able to generate a profit is by selling renewable energy credits or taking a one-time benefit from the sale of Bitcoin.\nThe EV space is growing increasingly more crowded, and the major auto stocks are investing tens of billions into new models. It's unlikely that Tesla will be able to hold onto its competitive edge for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151722104,"gmtCreate":1625108281708,"gmtModify":1703736322381,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ev stock [Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Ev stock [Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Ev stock [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151722104","repostId":"1155548924","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155548924","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625063251,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1155548924?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 22:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks surged in Wednesday morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155548924","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks surged in Wednesday morning trading.Nio, Li Auto&nbsp;and Tesla&nbsp;climbed between 0.7% and 5.6%.&nbsp;While&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.7%.","content":"<p>EV stocks surged in Wednesday morning trading.Nio, Li Auto&nbsp;and Tesla&nbsp;climbed between 0.7% and 5.6%.&nbsp;While&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.7%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3cdf9487d32d5f8f934cea51ae1ab2\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"352\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks surged in Wednesday morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks surged in Wednesday morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-30 22:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks surged in Wednesday morning trading.Nio, Li Auto&nbsp;and Tesla&nbsp;climbed between 0.7% and 5.6%.&nbsp;While&nbsp;Xpeng Motors&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.7%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3cdf9487d32d5f8f934cea51ae1ab2\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"352\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155548924","content_text":"EV stocks surged in Wednesday morning trading.Nio, Li Auto and Tesla climbed between 0.7% and 5.6%. While Xpeng Motors fell 0.7%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151726845,"gmtCreate":1625108222587,"gmtModify":1703736321061,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151726845","repostId":"1169757192","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169757192","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625040309,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169757192?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 16:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169757192","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in Wednesday premarket trading After rising for several ","content":"<p>Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in Wednesday&nbsp;premarket trading&nbsp;After rising for several days.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccacc49fbe0c6bbc18abd07d443ebbf5\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p>\n<p>The huge movescome less than a weekafter the San Francisco-based software firm announced a new integration with&nbsp;<b>Instacart</b>. Following that news,investors doubled the priceof MRIN stock as trading volume surged.</p>\n<p>While the integration collaboration is big for Marin — allowing users to manageInstacart ads, something that enables brands to connect with customers more directly at the point of sale — there’s seemingly more going on.</p>\n<p><b>Short Chatter Around MRIN Stock</b></p>\n<p>That “more” is likely the hoard of Reddit’s retail traders, in the absence of any material news regarding the company. In what’s becoming a familiar response, r/WallStreetBets social sentiment on MRIN stock is spiking this morning, asindicated on tracking website Memeberg Terminal.</p>\n<p>The increased chatter comes as retail investorsattempt to push backagainst a potential short attack on a stock with ashort ratio of 0.68, according to Morningstar data. Essentially, this means that short traders need under a day to cover their position based on the average three-month volume of MRIN stock. The short volumeratio stands at 22%.</p>\n<p>MRIN stock has spent most of the last 18 months bouncing around under $2 a share. On Oct. 21, 2020, Marin stock jumped from approximately $1.50 a share to its then-52-week high of $5.70 in a single trading session. Not only that, but this price surge was accompanied by heavy trading volume.</p>\n<p>Over the&nbsp;next few trading days, MRIN stock crashed back to $2.21, shot up to $4.47, and eased back to $2.47. So, our warning from last week still stands: Be aware that this stock is only for folks who can handle a fair amount of volatility.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-30 16:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in Wednesday&nbsp;premarket trading&nbsp;After rising for several days.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccacc49fbe0c6bbc18abd07d443ebbf5\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p>\n<p>The huge movescome less than a weekafter the San Francisco-based software firm announced a new integration with&nbsp;<b>Instacart</b>. Following that news,investors doubled the priceof MRIN stock as trading volume surged.</p>\n<p>While the integration collaboration is big for Marin — allowing users to manageInstacart ads, something that enables brands to connect with customers more directly at the point of sale — there’s seemingly more going on.</p>\n<p><b>Short Chatter Around MRIN Stock</b></p>\n<p>That “more” is likely the hoard of Reddit’s retail traders, in the absence of any material news regarding the company. In what’s becoming a familiar response, r/WallStreetBets social sentiment on MRIN stock is spiking this morning, asindicated on tracking website Memeberg Terminal.</p>\n<p>The increased chatter comes as retail investorsattempt to push backagainst a potential short attack on a stock with ashort ratio of 0.68, according to Morningstar data. Essentially, this means that short traders need under a day to cover their position based on the average three-month volume of MRIN stock. The short volumeratio stands at 22%.</p>\n<p>MRIN stock has spent most of the last 18 months bouncing around under $2 a share. On Oct. 21, 2020, Marin stock jumped from approximately $1.50 a share to its then-52-week high of $5.70 in a single trading session. Not only that, but this price surge was accompanied by heavy trading volume.</p>\n<p>Over the&nbsp;next few trading days, MRIN stock crashed back to $2.21, shot up to $4.47, and eased back to $2.47. So, our warning from last week still stands: Be aware that this stock is only for folks who can handle a fair amount of volatility.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRIN":"Marin Software Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169757192","content_text":"Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in Wednesday premarket trading After rising for several days.\n\nThe huge movescome less than a weekafter the San Francisco-based software firm announced a new integration with Instacart. Following that news,investors doubled the priceof MRIN stock as trading volume surged.\nWhile the integration collaboration is big for Marin — allowing users to manageInstacart ads, something that enables brands to connect with customers more directly at the point of sale — there’s seemingly more going on.\nShort Chatter Around MRIN Stock\nThat “more” is likely the hoard of Reddit’s retail traders, in the absence of any material news regarding the company. In what’s becoming a familiar response, r/WallStreetBets social sentiment on MRIN stock is spiking this morning, asindicated on tracking website Memeberg Terminal.\nThe increased chatter comes as retail investorsattempt to push backagainst a potential short attack on a stock with ashort ratio of 0.68, according to Morningstar data. Essentially, this means that short traders need under a day to cover their position based on the average three-month volume of MRIN stock. The short volumeratio stands at 22%.\nMRIN stock has spent most of the last 18 months bouncing around under $2 a share. On Oct. 21, 2020, Marin stock jumped from approximately $1.50 a share to its then-52-week high of $5.70 in a single trading session. Not only that, but this price surge was accompanied by heavy trading volume.\nOver the next few trading days, MRIN stock crashed back to $2.21, shot up to $4.47, and eased back to $2.47. So, our warning from last week still stands: Be aware that this stock is only for folks who can handle a fair amount of volatility.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153868392,"gmtCreate":1625017599416,"gmtModify":1703850196488,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153868392","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100563900","pubTimestamp":1624956396,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100563900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook: Simply Unstoppable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100563900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets , cumulatively make for a compel","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.</li>\n <li>Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.</li>\n <li>The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.</li>\n <li>Although the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b3414073b72a391e760025594ec111f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>nemke/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Facebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!</p>\n<p><b>What is Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Known to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d08f4df186c4705a5300f40d6b8a5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"429\"><span>(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>The world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.</p>\n<p>The firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the&nbsp;Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb9d05bb00f3038cec301c72ef56827\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>(Source:Pew Research Center)</span></p>\n<p>To Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.</p>\n<p>When we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than&nbsp;1000 companies publicly committed&nbsp;to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.</p>\n<p>Despite this, Facebook&nbsp;beat on Q2 earnings&nbsp;and saw an increase of&nbsp;10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.</p>\n<p>The results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Other risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694ca79d59162e95f05335ebefbca3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Though representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.</p>\n<p>The current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.</p>\n<p>According to aCNBC article:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>When the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.</p>\n<p>However, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.</p>\n<p>Though Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.</p>\n<p><b>Moat</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2057a83640201edd89430e754f3f8525\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Despite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US &amp; Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US &amp; Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3456321584d2eea288f7e410215571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US &amp; Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84eaec3de9bafd595bf4ecf9ffdae16a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US &amp; Canada and 10.2% in Europe.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d72be6c3ca7eb809567503ffc1d4ed9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>If Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Tactics</b></p>\n<p>When we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d1d27ff399e3e6fdfbc44a3ff1fb6e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>The firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87012cd9e376a0bed27a095b01828\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>What’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.</p>\n<p>Their continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>Of the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1367468f26c73bde43f494b2b7fb49d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>FB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&amp;D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&amp;D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b923685aa0489833ae8f50fcddf3601\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>A large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash &amp; Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b40cadc31458233d0ea83ce4917c33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Given the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5b82506a0385a1265c494b21462678\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"43\"><span>(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)</span></p>\n<p>In their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.</p>\n<p><b>Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Being a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0878b205b837634b7d2528f57ebe84fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Looking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707f8cfee45ce9ebb0e3ac961e78f48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Since 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444e1473e814530e2332cea02637af53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8494d3084eed106a9cb0bff0f27cfe7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>At an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55014da5e82d1a67caaeb34766b35940\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.</p>\n<p>Now shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d67f3c257657bc10ee6be38c16d2a1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe26a8eabec7045dc5a904497737623\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Despite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247661f12f62820f6266763f49531355\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>However, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce908799f1bf9091b49b94e03db7e476\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>However, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.</p>\n<p>With all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p>\n<p>To conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.</p>\n<p>With so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.</p>\n<p>That being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.</p>\n<p>End day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook: Simply Unstoppable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook: Simply Unstoppable\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 16:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100563900","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.\nThe strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.\nAlthough the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.\n\nnemke/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nFacebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!\nWhat is Facebook\nKnown to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.\n(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nThe world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.\nThe firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)\n(Source:Pew Research Center)\nTo Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.\nWhen we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than 1000 companies publicly committed to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.\nDespite this, Facebook beat on Q2 earnings and saw an increase of 10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.\nThe results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.\nRisks\nOther risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThough representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.\nThe current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.\nAccording to aCNBC article:\n\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n\nWhen the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.\nHowever, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.\nThough Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.\nMoat\nAs mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nDespite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US & Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US & Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US & Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US & Canada and 10.2% in Europe.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nIf Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.\nGrowth Tactics\nWhen we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nThe firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:\n\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nWhat’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.\nTheir continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.\nFinancials\nOf the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.\nData by YCharts\nFB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nA large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash & Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nGiven the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.\n(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)\nIn their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.\nValuations\nBeing a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nLooking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nSince 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nMoreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nAt an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nWhen we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.\nNow shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nTurning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.\nData by YCharts\nDespite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.\nData by YCharts\nHowever, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nHowever, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.\nWith all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.\nInvestor Takeaways\nTo conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.\nWith so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.\nThat being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.\nEnd day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127829295,"gmtCreate":1624843697317,"gmtModify":1703845930602,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127829295","repostId":"1174604007","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174604007","pubTimestamp":1624843205,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1174604007?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 09:20","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong Exchanges Cancels Morning Session Due to Rainstorm Warning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174604007","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"The Hong Kong exchange's Monday morning trading session has been cancelled due to a severe rainstorm","content":"<p>The Hong Kong exchange's Monday morning trading session has been cancelled due to a severe rainstorm alert.</p>\n<p>The suspension and potential cancellation also applies to Hong Kong-China stock connect trading, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. said on Monday.</p>\n<p>If the rainstorm alert is cancelled at or before noon, HKEX said it will resume trading for major products of its securities and derivatives markets in the afternoon.</p>\n<p>If the alert remains at noon, all afternoon trading will be cancelled as well, it said.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong Exchanges Cancels Morning Session Due to Rainstorm Warning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 09:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-delays-morning-session-due-to-rainstorm-warning-271624842516><strong>Marketwatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Hong Kong exchange's Monday morning trading session has been cancelled due to a severe rainstorm alert.\nThe suspension and potential cancellation also applies to Hong Kong-China stock connect ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-delays-morning-session-due-to-rainstorm-warning-271624842516\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hong-kong-delays-morning-session-due-to-rainstorm-warning-271624842516","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1174604007","content_text":"The Hong Kong exchange's Monday morning trading session has been cancelled due to a severe rainstorm alert.\nThe suspension and potential cancellation also applies to Hong Kong-China stock connect trading, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd. said on Monday.\nIf the rainstorm alert is cancelled at or before noon, HKEX said it will resume trading for major products of its securities and derivatives markets in the afternoon.\nIf the alert remains at noon, all afternoon trading will be cancelled as well, it said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164072659,"gmtCreate":1624163364471,"gmtModify":1703829925896,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Wow]&nbsp;[Wow]&nbsp;","listText":"[Wow]&nbsp;[Wow]&nbsp;","text":"[Wow] [Wow]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164072659","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183124175","pubTimestamp":1624151620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183124175?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183124175","media":"cnbc","summary":"As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.Growth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the market. However, these names are typically riskier and more volatile than the average stock.Adam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist and founder of Trivariate Research, said the time is right to buy growth shares, but investors should be cautious of a f","content":"<div>\n<p>As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","SQ":"Block","MCHP":"微芯科技","TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1183124175","content_text":"As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the market. However, these names are typically riskier and more volatile than the average stock.\nAdam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist and founder of Trivariate Research, said the time is right to buy growth shares, but investors should be cautious of a few.\n“We think that portfolio managers should be buying growth stocks again, focusing on positive free cash flow and margin expansion, not earnings-based valuation,” Parker said in a note released Wednesday.\nTrivariate Research used a number of criteria to identify risky stocks, including low or negative correlation to inflation, high correlation to the economic reopening and high levels of company insiders selling their shares. The research firm then identified the eight riskiest names based on those measures.\n“Our view is that these are among the riskiest stocks to own today, so investors who own these names should have disproportionate upside to their base cases to compensate them for these risks,” Parker said.\nTake a look at five of the riskiest technology stocks, according to Trivariate.\nRISKIEST TECH STOCKS, ACCORDING TO TRIVARIATE\n\n\n\nTICKER\nCOMPANY\nPRICE\n%CHANGE\n\n\n\n\nMCHP\nMicrochip Technology Inc\n145.62\n-3.0686\n\n\nTWLO\nTwilio Inc\n367.61\n1.84\n\n\nSQ\nSquare Inc\n237.05\n0.39\n\n\nNVDA\nNVIDIA Corp\n745.55\n-0.0992\n\n\nAAPL\nApple Inc\n130.46\n-1.0092\n\n\n\nApple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks. The research firm identifies Apple as one of the stocks with the most negative correlation to inflation. Trivariate predicts that if bond yields rise or if fears of inflation continue, shares of Apple will underperform the market.\nNvidiaalso makes the list of risky tech stocks. Trivariate found the semiconductor stock has one of the most asymmetric beta — meaning the stock is consistently more volatile than the broader market during a market pullback compared with typical times.\nTrivariate also named payments companySquare, cloud communications platformTwilioand semiconductor manufacturerMicrochip Technologyamong the riskiest technology stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162550875,"gmtCreate":1624068816897,"gmtModify":1703828089836,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting ???","listText":"Interesting ???","text":"Interesting ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162550875","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":814179197,"gmtCreate":1630801597819,"gmtModify":1676530395683,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile] [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/814179197","repostId":"2164879370","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127829295,"gmtCreate":1624843697317,"gmtModify":1703845930602,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127829295","repostId":"1174604007","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164072659,"gmtCreate":1624163364471,"gmtModify":1703829925896,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Wow]&nbsp;[Wow]&nbsp;","listText":"[Wow]&nbsp;[Wow]&nbsp;","text":"[Wow] [Wow]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/164072659","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183124175","pubTimestamp":1624151620,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1183124175?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183124175","media":"cnbc","summary":"As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.Growth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the market. However, these names are typically riskier and more volatile than the average stock.Adam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist and founder of Trivariate Research, said the time is right to buy growth shares, but investors should be cautious of a f","content":"<div>\n<p>As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeware these risky tech stocks in your portfolio, strategist Parker warns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","SQ":"Block","MCHP":"微芯科技","TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/19/tech-stocks-strategist-warns-of-risky-names.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1183124175","content_text":"As investors cycle back into growth stocks, one market strategist warns against certain technology names he believes are high risk.\nGrowth stocks are shares of companies expected to grow at a faster rate than the rest of the market. However, these names are typically riskier and more volatile than the average stock.\nAdam Parker, former Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist and founder of Trivariate Research, said the time is right to buy growth shares, but investors should be cautious of a few.\n“We think that portfolio managers should be buying growth stocks again, focusing on positive free cash flow and margin expansion, not earnings-based valuation,” Parker said in a note released Wednesday.\nTrivariate Research used a number of criteria to identify risky stocks, including low or negative correlation to inflation, high correlation to the economic reopening and high levels of company insiders selling their shares. The research firm then identified the eight riskiest names based on those measures.\n“Our view is that these are among the riskiest stocks to own today, so investors who own these names should have disproportionate upside to their base cases to compensate them for these risks,” Parker said.\nTake a look at five of the riskiest technology stocks, according to Trivariate.\nRISKIEST TECH STOCKS, ACCORDING TO TRIVARIATE\n\n\n\nTICKER\nCOMPANY\nPRICE\n%CHANGE\n\n\n\n\nMCHP\nMicrochip Technology Inc\n145.62\n-3.0686\n\n\nTWLO\nTwilio Inc\n367.61\n1.84\n\n\nSQ\nSquare Inc\n237.05\n0.39\n\n\nNVDA\nNVIDIA Corp\n745.55\n-0.0992\n\n\nAAPL\nApple Inc\n130.46\n-1.0092\n\n\n\nApple is on Trivariate’s list of riskiest stocks. The research firm identifies Apple as one of the stocks with the most negative correlation to inflation. Trivariate predicts that if bond yields rise or if fears of inflation continue, shares of Apple will underperform the market.\nNvidiaalso makes the list of risky tech stocks. Trivariate found the semiconductor stock has one of the most asymmetric beta — meaning the stock is consistently more volatile than the broader market during a market pullback compared with typical times.\nTrivariate also named payments companySquare, cloud communications platformTwilioand semiconductor manufacturerMicrochip Technologyamong the riskiest technology stocks.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162550875,"gmtCreate":1624068816897,"gmtModify":1703828089836,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting ???","listText":"Interesting ???","text":"Interesting ???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/162550875","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1168762020?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>\n <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>\n <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>\n <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>\n <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p>\n<p>ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p>\n<p>It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p>\n<p>Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p>\n<p><b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p>\n<p>For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p>\n<p>Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p>\n<p>This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p>\n<p>Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p>\n<p>Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p>\n<p>ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p>\n<p>If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p>\n<p>As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p>\n<p>There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “\n <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”\n <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p>I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p>\n<p>So, to sum it all up:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>\n <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>\n <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>\n <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>\n <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>\n <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Sounds pretty good to me.</p>\n<p>The Financial Performance and Development</p>\n<p>ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Strong revenue growth</li>\n <li>Strong margin expansion</li>\n <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>\n <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p>\n<p>This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p>\n<p>An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p>\n<p>Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p>\n<p>ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p>\n<p>Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p>\n<p>Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>\n <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>\n <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>\n <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>\n <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>\n <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>\n <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p>\n<p>I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p>\n<p>The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p>\n<p>There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p>\n<p>As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p>\n<p>There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p>\n<p>As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 11:57 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153868392,"gmtCreate":1625017599416,"gmtModify":1703850196488,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/153868392","repostId":"1100563900","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100563900","pubTimestamp":1624956396,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100563900?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-29 16:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Facebook: Simply Unstoppable","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100563900","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets , cumulatively make for a compel","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.</li>\n <li>Despite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.</li>\n <li>The strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.</li>\n <li>Although the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b3414073b72a391e760025594ec111f\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"528\"><span>nemke/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Facebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!</p>\n<p><b>What is Facebook</b></p>\n<p>Known to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3d08f4df186c4705a5300f40d6b8a5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"429\"><span>(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>The world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.</p>\n<p>The firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the&nbsp;Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cb9d05bb00f3038cec301c72ef56827\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>(Source:Pew Research Center)</span></p>\n<p>To Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.</p>\n<p>When we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than&nbsp;1000 companies publicly committed&nbsp;to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.</p>\n<p>Despite this, Facebook&nbsp;beat on Q2 earnings&nbsp;and saw an increase of&nbsp;10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.</p>\n<p>The results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.</p>\n<p><b>Risks</b></p>\n<p>Other risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f694ca79d59162e95f05335ebefbca3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Though representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.</p>\n<p>The current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.</p>\n<p>According to aCNBC article:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>When the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.</p>\n<p>However, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.</p>\n<p>Though Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.</p>\n<p><b>Moat</b></p>\n<p>As mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2057a83640201edd89430e754f3f8525\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>Despite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US &amp; Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US &amp; Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3456321584d2eea288f7e410215571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US &amp; Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84eaec3de9bafd595bf4ecf9ffdae16a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"430\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US &amp; Canada and 10.2% in Europe.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d72be6c3ca7eb809567503ffc1d4ed9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\"><span>(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)</span></p>\n<p>If Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.</p>\n<p><b>Growth Tactics</b></p>\n<p>When we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d1d27ff399e3e6fdfbc44a3ff1fb6e6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>The firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:</p>\n<blockquote>\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n</blockquote>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d87012cd9e376a0bed27a095b01828\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"418\"><span>(Source:Facebook Newsroom)</span></p>\n<p>What’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.</p>\n<p>Their continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.</p>\n<p><b>Financials</b></p>\n<p>Of the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1367468f26c73bde43f494b2b7fb49d6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"467\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>FB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&amp;D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&amp;D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b923685aa0489833ae8f50fcddf3601\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>A large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash &amp; Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13b40cadc31458233d0ea83ce4917c33\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Given the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5b82506a0385a1265c494b21462678\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"43\"><span>(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)</span></p>\n<p>In their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.</p>\n<p><b>Valuations</b></p>\n<p>Being a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0878b205b837634b7d2528f57ebe84fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"321\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Looking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1707f8cfee45ce9ebb0e3ac961e78f48\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Since 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444e1473e814530e2332cea02637af53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>Moreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8494d3084eed106a9cb0bff0f27cfe7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>(Source: TIKR.com)</span></p>\n<p>At an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55014da5e82d1a67caaeb34766b35940\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"294\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>When we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.</p>\n<p>Now shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d67f3c257657bc10ee6be38c16d2a1f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"207\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>Turning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe26a8eabec7045dc5a904497737623\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"501\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Despite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/247661f12f62820f6266763f49531355\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>However, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce908799f1bf9091b49b94e03db7e476\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"284\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>However, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.</p>\n<p>With all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.</p>\n<p><b>Investor Takeaways</b></p>\n<p>To conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.</p>\n<p>With so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.</p>\n<p>That being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.</p>\n<p>End day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Facebook: Simply Unstoppable</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFacebook: Simply Unstoppable\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-29 16:46 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437000-facebook-simply-unstoppable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100563900","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe #StopHateforProfit Campaign, antitrust allegations, Apple IDFA issue, and a host of other historical issues have not stopped the social media giant and will not stop it.\nDespite an impressive rally delivering 65% since the start of CY20 and 26% YTD, Facebook remains undervalued relative to its peers and the FAANG stocks with the best forward estimates.\nThe strong moat originating from their sheer user base, and sizeable TAMs in E-commerce, VR/AR, digital assets (DIEM), cumulatively make for a compelling growth story.\nAlthough the company is highly controversial and rightfully so, this article focuses more on the quantitative analysis and less on the morals and ethics behind this investment. That, we shall leave to you.\n\nnemke/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nFacebook (FB) has had a volatile trading period the past few years with a general uptrend, delivering shareholders nice returns whilst subjecting them to a few major dips which presented investors an opportunity for a steal. Despite the controversy and headline risks every now and then, the company has been able to battle through them and emerge ever so stronger. The company’s financials have been holding up and shows no sign of stoppage anytime soon. In a time as such, with significant uncertainty in the macro environment and inflation fears creeping up, we believe that shifting some of your assets to high cashflow generating companies is a wise strategy that will pay off. Growth and value are 2 different things, and there still exists growth companies that are undervalued and can still generate substantial cashflow, and we believe Facebook is one of them. The company also remains to be one of the more attractive blue-chip stocks compared to the others in the FAANG. We employ a 3–5-year outlook and have been bullish since USD$200/share. Let’s Begin!\nWhat is Facebook\nKnown to all, Facebook is a social media giant with a family of products including the likes of Facebook, Instagram,WhatsApp, Messenger, and now Oculus. The firm essentially has a stronghold in the social media industry and has an impressive DAP of2.72 BN as of Q1’21and MAP of 3.45 BN.\n(Source:FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nThe world has7.874 BNpeople as of the time of this writing and that would mean that 43.8% of all the people in the world use some form of product from Facebook’s portfolio in the past 30 days. On a daily basis, 34.5% of the people in the world use it. If that isn’t a sticky service, nothing really is. If we were to focus on the usage of the Facebook app solely, 23.8% of the world logs into the app daily based on DAUs.\nThe firm was founded in 2004 and generates the majority of their revenue from advertisements. If you have watched the social dilemma on Netflix, you would realize that Facebook’s real customer isn’t everyday users. Instead, users are the product, and they are being sold to advertisers. The company has created such an engaging and sticky service that users are more than happy to be using their apps, despite knowing that their data is being sold from one company to another. As appalling as it is, they’re indifferent to it all and still find the value in using the company’s products on a daily basis – keeping in touch with distant relatives, chatting with friends, staying up to date with the latest fashion trends and news… (According to the Pew Research Center, more than a 1/3 of US adults say they get their news regularly from Facebook)\n(Source:Pew Research Center)\nTo Facebook, this is equally as good as the more users, the wider the ‘product’ base that they have to offer their customers - advertisers. Advertisers are also indifferent to how Facebook attains its data, so long as Facebook’s targeting metrics and trackers are working well, the more likely it is that they are able to generate conversions. The more conversions, the more sales for them, the more ads they continue to pay for, the more revenue Facebook generates. Win-Win-Win, their apps are the bait, and the product (users), customers (advertisers), and supplier (Facebook), all walk away winners. It’s a remarkable business model that has stood the test of time and no matter the amount of controversy around the business, founders, and its practices, it isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and for one simple reason: Users likely can’t do without Facebook’s products whether they are willing to admit it or not.\nWhen we look back in the past to reflect on how the #StopHateForProfit Campaign turned out for the company, it is apparent that the impact it had on the top and bottom line were both minimal. The boycott was one that arose due to Facebook’s bad hate speech regulations and policing, and because of the laissez-faire attitude toward posts from then President, Donald Trump. More than 1000 companies publicly committed to boycotting the social media giant in June/July (coinciding with end Q2 and start Q3) and many of the top 100 advertisers based on ad spend such as Nike, Adidas, Puma, Coca-Cola, all revised their budgets downwards.\nDespite this, Facebook beat on Q2 earnings and saw an increase of 10.7% YOY. In its forward guidance, the company also announced that for July, they were anticipating a slowdown in YoY growth of 17% but was still due to see a 10% increase. They alsoanticipatedthe slowdown in growth to last through till October. However, the company did not attribute this slowdown to the boycott specifically but to 3 other major headwinds. With the benefit of hindsight, we can now see that even for Q3’20, the firm saw an impressive 21.6% rise in its top line, with the bottom line still registering a 12.2% improvement in NPM for Q2’20 YoY and a 200 bps NPM improvement in Q3.\nThe results are clear and indicative of a few things. The boycott by the largest companies did little to Facebook’s financial story as they still managed to register growth and did not see significant pullbacks that were material. This can be tied to the fact that most of Facebook’s advertisers are SMBs. Although certain few SMBs did join the boycott, most didn’t, and the firm still had their impressive 9 million + customer base to rely on. If anything, this also suggests that despite what any SMB stands for and whether they agree with a social cause or not, it is hard for them to find alternatives that they can shift to on a similar pricing scale. Big brands can easily pivot to other advertisements such as TV and radio commercials but SMBs simply can’t because of smaller budgets. Lastly, it is now clear that the campaign affected Facebook’s reputation more so than it did its cashflow.\nRisks\nOther risks that the company may face would be future antitrust lawsuits. As it is, the company is already facing allegations of being a monopoly based on their aggressive acquisitive history having acquired more than90 other companiessince inception. They were alsofined US$5 BNby the FTC in 2019 and were required to adopt their policies and employ new protections for the users and their data that has been shared.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nThough representative of a historic penalty and the largest ever imposed on a company for violating user’s privacy rights, the US$5BN was a drop in the bucket for the giant that went on to generate US$70+ BN dollars for the year.\nThe current issues that they have with Apple’s new iOS changes and the IDFA implications are also likely not going to have a substantial impact on the firm. The Identifier for Advertisers [IDFA] is a random device identifier assigned by Apple to a user's device. Advertisers use this to track data so they can deliver customized advertising on mobile. With the new iOS changes, Apple essentially programmed it such that each app that wants to use these identifiers will have to ask users to opt in for tracking when the app is first launched. If users opt out, the app can’t track certain data and Facebook will have a smaller database of points to rely upon. As consumer preferences change, so will Facebook’s targeting that relies on IDFAs get worse and less effective due to outdated data points.\nAccording to aCNBC article:\n\n Most critically at stake for Facebook is what’s known as view-through conversions. This metric is used by ad-tech companies to measure how many users saw an ad, did not immediately click on it, but later made a purchase related to that ad.”\n\nWhen the conversion is made later on, the data IDFA for that particular user is then shared by the retailer to Facebook which is then used by the company to see if it matches the IDFA of the user who saw the ad. If they pair, it indicates that the ad was useful in generating a conversion. This data performance is then relayed to advertisers so that they can tweak their ad strategies accordingly. Withas much as 96% of usersanticipated to opt out of tracking on all apps, this would mean that mobile ads on 3rdparty apps may no longer be as useful if Facebook cannot really judge its effectiveness anymore. The more ineffective the ads become, the less conversions for retailers, and the more they pivot to other advertising platforms, which will impact the revenues for the firm.\nHowever, Facebook has disclosed that this will particularly only affect one form of advertisement which relies heavily on the IDFA, known as Audience Networks. Fortunately, the audience network segment only represents less than 10% of the firm’s total revenues. With the impact estimating to cost a drop in50% of all ads deliveredand hence sales from this segment, this would atbest represent a 5% drop in their total revenues. With that said, we do not anticipate that this will be present significant impact moving forward and the firm can easily recoup the 5% loss at worse by focusing on increasing ARPUs and user engagement to save their core business.\nThough Facebook started by disclosing that they anticipated the impact on their revenues to be large at first, this no longer seems to be the case. If anything, history has shown us that Mark is not one to back down and if he doesn’t get his way, he damn well will find another way to minimise loss and increase revenue generation in other segments to make up for it. If you aren’t too involved in the technicalities, we think it’s safe to bet on the jockey in this case. Besides, AR / VR growth,WhatsApp monetization, Reels monetization, further user growth in less developed countries away from the legacy North America and Europe region can very well pick up the lost (US$5BN) in sales.\nMoat\nAs mentioned above, the DAUs and MAUs for Facebook are very impressive with a large portion of the world using at least 1 of their products. The moat for the business relies on the wide user base that Facebook has meticulously built over the course of 17 years. With any new product that they have, the firm can easily roll it out to their database of users and expect demand to pick up in a matter of weeks, maybe even days. That is the power of the network of Facebook that really can’t be valued.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nDespite the controversy, endless allegations, and negative headlines one after the other, the numbers don’t lie. DAUs have been increasing every single quarter, with the fastest growth observed in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. US & Canada growth has slowed as it nears saturation levels, and this is perfectly normal and to be expected. The way we anticipate Facebook to grow their core cash cow business moving forward is clean. 1) Focus on growing ARPUs in their saturated legacy areas (US & Canada and Europe) as well as 2) Increase User Growth by Geography in their growth areas (Asia-Pacific and the Rest of the World). Unsurprisingly, Facebook has been focused on doing just that.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the infamous metric for judging social media companies and their performance – ARPUs, we can see that in the legacy areas, ARPUs have been increasing at a faster pace than compared to growth areas. This falls in line with point number 1 as mentioned above. The legacy areas have already reached saturation levels and user growth is unable to grow at astounding rates anymore. However, since this represent areas that are more developed and generally have higher disposable incomes on the average, focusing on increasing ARPUs and monetizing advertisers is the right strategy and a very feasible one. Though the growth areas are also seeing ARPUs grow YoY as they should, they are not at the same pace as in the US & Canada and Europe. When we look to revenue generated by geography below, this confirms the thesis that revenue is growing faster than user base in those areas, and since ARPU equal to (Total Revenue from that Geography / Number of Users in that area), so long revenue is growing at a faster pace than the user base, they should increase meaningfully.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nWhen we look to the slide below, it is also apparent that user numbers are growing much faster in Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world, away from the legacy areas. Across 2 years, MAUs which is the broadest business performance metric employed by Facebook, grew 22.4% and 25.4% in the growth areas while they only grew a mere 6.6% in US & Canada and 10.2% in Europe.\n(Source: FB Q1’21 Presentation)\nIf Facebook can continue to grow their user engagement numbers in the growth areas whilst maximizing ARPUs in legacy areas, the company can easily ensure that the core advertising model will remain the cash cow of the business, funding growth for their other product developments.\nGrowth Tactics\nWhen we look to potential growth Facebook has, the company isn’t short of any. Facebook has moved to monetizeWhatsApp, where they plan to generate fees from payments made within the app itself as well as through in-app status advertisements. The company is essentially trying to integrate the growth and TAM of the E-commerce market more seamlessly into their family of products including the likes ofWhatsApp. ThroughFacebook Pay, users can now engage in peer-to-peer payments withinWhatsApp itself at no cost. However, when businesses receive a fee from customers through the app itself, they will then have to pay a small ‘processing fee’ to Facebook and this is where it profits. This is the same method that is being employed by Shopify and all the other payment processing channels just that it is now being done locally inWhatsApp itself.WhatsApp payments has launched in Brazil, the 2nd largest market by users and the fee stands at 3.99%.\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nThe firm has also been trying to grow their presence in the E-commerce market and reduce the friction customers experience when clicking through ads on its platforms. Both Instagram checkout and Facebook shops are aimed at doing just that. Their shops solutions are also expanding toWhatsApp, and the marketplace as observed above. The company sees a major shift to online shopping even after the grand reopening of the economies. As part of its effort over the years, they now have 1.2M active shops across their platforms and more than 300M monthly shop visitors. Thelatest releasestates that:\n\n Soon, we’ll give businesses in select countries the option to showcase their Shop inWhatsApp. In the US, we’ll enable them to bring Shops products into Marketplace, helping them reach the more than 1 billion people globally who visit each month.\n\n(Source:Facebook Newsroom)\nWhat’s even more fascinating is the fact that Facebook now plans to integrate new technologies such as AR Dynamic Ads to power the future of shopping. New visual discovery tools on their platforms like Instagram will help customers find new products that they resonate with faster than ever before and help them to visualize their products with AR experiences that they have been working on for a long time now.\nTheir continued expansion in the AR/VR market along with the rollout of DIEM, their native digital currency functioning as a stablecoin that was once under the “Libra Project” also presents good growth opportunity in the near future. Facebook is also looking to introducepodcasts and live audio streamsas part of the beginning of their audio journey. In short, Facebook still has a lot of room to grow moving forward apart from looking to squeeze out more cash from their legacy advertising business model. However, as always, product development is one thing, but the financials do need to shape up as well and with Facebook it does.\nFinancials\nOf the FAANG stock group, Facebook enjoys one of the highest margins. The company saw 80.55% in GM in Q1’21 and even in the past, it has enjoyed such high margins, trading between 80.5% to as high as 86.6% in FY17. The chart below also clearly indicates that the remarkable margins trickle down to the bottom line and aren’t wiped out due to operating expenses, registering a NPM of 35.7%.\nData by YCharts\nFB also routinely spends a large portion of their revenues on R&D, reinvesting into the business YoY to further improve their products and innovate on new ones. In 2020 the R&D expense represented 21.5% of total sales.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nA large chunk of the firms’ revenues is also retained on the balance sheet which is then used over the years to funnel money to continue their acquisitive culture. Despite this, the strong cashflow that the firm enjoys allows it to stay at the top of their industry in terms of innovation whilst ensuring that their treasure trove of cash is growing should there be a need to deploy it. When we look to liquid cash that the firm holds (Cash & Equivalents, and STI), Facebook has grown it at a tremendous CAGR of 26.2%. Net Debt has also just been becoming less of a concern over the years. To date, even after the pandemic, Facebook has no debt.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nGiven the data above, it is evident that the firm has one of the most pristine balance sheets in the industry and in the whole stock market. The US$62 BN that they hold as cash presents itself as a massive buffer to cushion the impact of whatever comes their way, be it another acquisitive opportunity, or yet another fine. Either way, the company can weather any financial storm and near balance sheet issues aren’t a problem. Shareholders aren’t too pleased with the cash pile just sitting there and would instead rather the firm start paying a dividend or pick up the pace in share buybacks to maximize investor returns. Facebook has never paid a dividend in its entirety and although they may consider that moving forward, we anticipate that it is not a move that they will commit to. In any case, we ourselves hope that they commit to more share buybacks instead of moving to issue a dividend.\n(Source:Q1 10-K Filing SEC)\nIn their 10-K filing, the company expanded their SRP program to include an additional US$25 BN which will be added atop the US$8.6 BN remaining from a 2017 authorization. That amounts to a current authorized SRP valued at around US$33.6 BN and we anticipate that this may further increase substantially moving forward. Despite outstanding shares reducing overtime, a large part is offset by additional equity issued as part of SBC to employees. It is disappointing that the firm isn’t making more of a definitive move to put that cash pile to use but this is nonetheless not a major red flag.\nValuations\nBeing a blue-chip company with strong FCF, we would normally value the social media giant with a DCF model. Today, however, we will be looking at EV/Sales and P/E Ratios to try and justify its future valuation, looking 3 years out as always to end 2023.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nLooking 3 years out to end 23, Facebook is projected to grow revenues at an average of 23.4%, with growth in the 30s for this fiscal year. That would mean that Facebook is anticipated to grow revenues to US$160.8 BN by end 2023, up 87% from what they delivered in FY20 in 3 years.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nSince 2018, the firm has traded at an average EV/Sales of 8.85, and last exchanged hands at a multiple of 9.76. Although the firm is trading at a multiple above its mean and higher than any of the other stocks as part of the FAANG group, Facebook does have higher estimates than all the other companies in the near future as observed below. The data does not reflect estimates for 2023.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nMoreover, when we look further into the past all the way back to 2013, the company has historically traded at an average of 12.82 and even registered a high close to 22 in 2014. However, since we want to be conservative, but believe that the market has yet to really price Facebook for what it’s worth given all the headline risks in the media that have induced immediate selloffs without any fundamental reason, we will employ a multiple of 9.\n(Source: TIKR.com)\nAt an EV/Sales multiple of 9, that would put Facebook at a US$1.447 TRN dollar valuation by the end of 2023 and a share price of US$539, an upside of 58%.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nWhen we look to revenue surprise and analyst estimate beat / miss trends, Facebook has quite the historical track record of surpassing estimates, having done so 10/12 times in the past 3 years. The average upside surprise stands at 3.59%. Assuming Facebook will continue to deliver the same upside surprise moving forward, a 3.59% beat to the top line estimate of 2023 would warrant revenues of US$166.57 BN. At the same EV/Sales ratio of 9, that would render a higher valuation of US$558.77 USD. Given that Facebook is very close to crossing the US$1 TRN dollar valuation mark, we anticipate this to be a very realistic price target.\nNow shifting on to another valuation method by P/E multiples, the valuation also paints a similar picture.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nTurning to earnings estimates, the company is also projected to do high-teens digit growth for 2022 and 2023 and a close to 30% growth in the bottom line for this fiscal year.\nData by YCharts\nDespite trading at the highest EV / Sales ratio of the FAANG stocks, Facebook is trading at the lowest TTM normalized PE Ratio amongst its peers, with the inclusion of Microsoft (FANGMA). This is likely due to the market failing to internalize and appreciate the company’s high NPM and profitability. Currently trading at a P/E ratio of 29.14, this is also below its historical means of as high as 60+ in 2016.\nData by YCharts\nHowever, given that earnings have improved dramatically since and likely won’t be revisiting those levels as seen from the forward estimates, we will stick with what we believe to be a fair multiple for the stickiest company in the world, 30. At a P/E ratio of 30, that would put the end 2023 share price somewhere near levels of US$531.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nHowever, because of a surprisingly good earnings-beat track record once again, this has to be factored in moving forward. Of the last 3 years, Facebook has beat earnings 11/12 times. The average beat comes in at 15.72%. If we were to stick to a similar but more conservative beat of say 7%, that would put 2023 normalized earnings at 18.93. The exact same P/E ratio would now warrant a realistic share price of US$567.8, an upside of 66.3%.\nWith all 4 estimates using different methods and assumptions with different levels of conservatism employed delivering a potential share price anywhere between US$531 and US$568, it would be fair to conclude that this is a realistic price target for the cashflow king 3 years out into the future. At the low end of estimates of US$531, this is still indicative of a 55% upside.\nInvestor Takeaways\nTo conclude, we believe Facebook has a very strong future ahead and the projected numbers for both the Topline and Bottom line are indicative of potential upside. We place significant emphasis on forward estimates as markets are future discounting mechanisms that react accordingly. The company enjoys unbelievably high margins, has a pristine balance sheet with absolutely no debt, and is anticipated to keep raking in high revenues with strong cashflow numbers.\nWith so many growth opportunities such as the monetization ofWhatsApp, AR/VR, shops, marketplace growth, DIEM, and the continued growth in its legacy advertisement business both in terms of MAP and ARPUs, Facebook is here to stay and is nowhere near exhausting its full potential. The sizeable TAMs in each of the different business segments combined with other opportunities such as Facebook Reels which we did not cover, and the fact that it has yet to have been monetized, all point to a bright future.\nThat being said, it is a given that the company will face many other bumps along moving forward. Facebook will continue to be subjected to what we call ‘headline risks’ whereby the stock will be overly sold off to the downside based upon nothing fundamental but one-sided exaggerated narratives. This we believe presents the best time to pick up shares and accumulate for the long run. Facebook has been perceived to have engaged in a lot of dubious unethical behaviour surrounding user data but like we said, that is separate from the investment opportunity the company presents and we will leave that to you to decide. Granted that there are many reasons surrounding the company's beat-down reputation, the return on invested capital is a different story and the main one to be focused on when considering if a company is a good investment or not.\nEnd day, when it comes to blue-chip stocks that have a firm hold in the industry, good sticky products, and solid financials, it is hard for the stock not to trend up overtime so long as estimates paint a bright picture and most importantly, the markets continue to value them in the same rational way. This has not always been the case and can be easily seen from Microsoft’s outperformance hiatus when the Dot Com bubble crashed, and the stock took 17 years to put in a new high. Still, we believe blue chip stocks are a good bet as of now and should be a part of everyone’s portfolio, and Facebook presents the best buy of the FAANG from our perspective. Till next time!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815989146,"gmtCreate":1630635320585,"gmtModify":1676530362262,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Sweats]&nbsp;[Sweats]&nbsp;","listText":"[Sweats]&nbsp;[Sweats]&nbsp;","text":"[Sweats] [Sweats]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/815989146","repostId":"1186835624","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":517,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812959502,"gmtCreate":1630548113206,"gmtModify":1676530336707,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/812959502","repostId":"1110351476","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156125256,"gmtCreate":1625204194975,"gmtModify":1703738317504,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Eye]&nbsp;[Eye]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","listText":"[Eye]&nbsp;[Eye]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;[Strong]&nbsp;","text":"[Eye] [Eye] [Strong] [Strong]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/156125256","repostId":"2148840288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2148840288","pubTimestamp":1625139913,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2148840288?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-01 19:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2148840288","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Retail investors can't stop buying into these companies.","content":"<p>Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based <b>S&amp;P 500</b> shedding 34% of its value in about a month during the first quarter of 2020, we've watched the benchmark index catapult more than 90% off of its lows.</p>\n<p>For some investors, volatility is something they fear. But for predominantly young and novice retail investors, volatility is the impetus that's driven them to put their money to work in the stock market.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b3853458b2424e2901821012f5502f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<p>As volatility has whipsawed the market, these younger retail investors have found their home with online investing app Robinhood. We know this because Robinhood added approximately 3 million new users in 2020.</p>\n<p>There are a number of lures for retail investors with Robinhood. For example, Robinhood doesn't charge a commission when stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange or <b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;exchange are bought or sold. Robinhood is also <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of many brokerages that allows for fractional share investing. And, who can forget that Robinhood also gifts free shares of stock to new users.</p>\n<p>In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> respect, it's a fantastic thing to see young people putting their money to work. Time is the biggest ally investors have. The earlier they start putting their money to work, the better chance they have of compounding their nest egg.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, Robinhood's retail investors have been buying some really awful stocks. Instead of thinking for the long-term, their buying activity demonstrates a willingness to chase momentum plays, penny stocks, and money-losing businesses.</p>\n<p>If you don't believe me, here's a closer look at the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks as we enter July.</p>\n<table width=\"492\">\n <thead>\n  <tr>\n   <th>Company</th>\n   <th>Company</th>\n  </tr>\n </thead>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td>1. <b>Tesla Motors</b> (NASDAQ:TSLA)</td>\n   <td>26. <b>Snap&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>2. <b>Apple&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>27. <b>Alibaba&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>3. <b>AMC Entertainment</b> (NYSE:AMC)</td>\n   <td>28. <b>Bank of America</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>4. <b>Sundial Growers</b> (NASDAQ:SNDL)</td>\n   <td>29. <b>OrganiGram Holdings</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>5. <b>Ford Motor</b></td>\n   <td>30. <b>Coinbase Global</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>6. <b>General Electric</b></td>\n   <td>31. <b>Tilray&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>7. <b>NIO&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>32. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>8. <b>Walt Disney</b></td>\n   <td>33. <b>Canopy Growth&nbsp;</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>9. <b>Microsoft</b></td>\n   <td>34. <b>Advanced Micro Devices</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>10. <b>Amazon&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>35. <b>Starbucks</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>11. <b>American Airlines Group</b> (NASDAQ:AAL)</td>\n   <td>36. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a></b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>12. <b>Plug Power</b></td>\n   <td>37. <b>AT&amp;T</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>13. <b>Nokia</b></td>\n   <td>38. <b>Moderna</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>14. <b>Carnival</b></td>\n   <td>39. <b>NVIDIA</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>15. <b>Aurora Cannabis</b> (NASDAQ:ACB)</td>\n   <td>40. <b>FuelCell Energy</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>16. <b>Pfizer</b></td>\n   <td>41. <b>Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>17. <b>Zomedica&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>42. <b>Coca-Cola</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>18. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GPRO\">GoPro</a>&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>43. <b>Norwegian Cruise Line</b> (NYSE:NCLH)</td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>19. <b>Naked Brand Group</b></td>\n   <td>44. <b>Ideanomics</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>20. <b>Palantir Technologies</b></td>\n   <td>45. <b>Workhorse Group</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>21. <b>GameStop</b> (NYSE:GME)</td>\n   <td>46. <b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>22. <b>Delta Air Lines&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>47. <b>Virgin Galactic</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>23. <b>BlackBerry</b></td>\n   <td>48. <b>General Motors</b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>24. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a></b></td>\n   <td>49. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNGA\">Zynga</a></b></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td>25. <b>Netflix&nbsp;</b></td>\n   <td>50. <b>United Airlines</b></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>Data source: Robinhood, as of June 26, 2021. Table by author.</p>\n<h2>Continuing to chase meme stocks</h2>\n<p>Like bees to honey, retail investors have been inseparable from meme stocks for almost six months. A meme stock is a company valued more for its social media favorability/hype than its operating performance.</p>\n<p>Since mid-January, retail investors have been banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. In many instances, companies with high levels of short interest have poor-performing businesses. This is how we've witnessed GameStop and AMC Entertainment become extremely popular on Robinhood.</p>\n<p>The good news for GameStop is that it's been able to use its monumental run to sell shares of common stock and raise capital. It's completely erased its debt and given itself more than enough cash to oversee its ongoing transformation into a digital gaming company. To be clear, this doesn't negate the fact that GameStop's previous management team completely dropped the ball on the shift to digital gaming. What it does do is give the company enough capital to at least attempt a transformation.</p>\n<p>The same can't be said for AMC, which sold the vast majority of its shares six months ago to avoid bankruptcy. Even with a handful of recent capital raises, AMC has well over $3 billion in net debt, and its 2027 bond prices indicate the company is still a bankruptcy risk.</p>\n<p>To make matters worse, movie theater ticket sales have been in a 19-year decline. Even with a larger share of the movie theater industry, AMC's pie is shrinking. It's pretty clear that social media hype, ignorance of fundamental data, and misinformation are the key drivers behind AMC's irrational rally.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc514068ded899a817770f684369db36\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Canadian cannabis binge</h2>\n<p>Robinhood's retail investors also have quite the crush on Canadian marijuana stocks. Five of the 33 most-held companies on Robinhood's leaderboard hail from our neighbor to the north.</p>\n<p>Even though cannabis-focused research company BDSA has forecasted weed sales growth in Canada from $2.6 billion in 2020 to $6.4 billion by 2026, the Canadian pot industry has been a disaster. Regulators have caused all sorts of supply chain issues, consumers have flocked to lower-margin value brands, and Canadian marijuana stocks overzealously expanded and, in some instances, decimated their balance sheets in the process.</p>\n<p>Robinhood investors' fascination with Sundial Growers is nothing short of frustrating. It may well be the single most-avoidable marijuana stock. Although its management team was able to pay off the company's existing debt by issuing stock and conducting debt-for-equity swaps, these share offerings simply haven't stopped. In a little over a seven-month stretch, more than 1.35 billion shares were issued. Sundial is showing zero regard for its shareholders, and its management team hasn't even laid out a concrete plan for how it'll spend its cash.</p>\n<p>We've seen similar issues from Aurora Cannabis, the second most-popular Canadian weed stock. Once the most-held stock on Robinhood, Aurora has drowned its shareholders in dilution. Even after selling one of its greenhouses and shuttering a number of other cultivation facilities, its cost-cutting has put it nowhere near close to generating a profit. As long as Aurora keeps burning through cash, its management team will continue to issue stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0e9f554fbd3314fbbb8ba78c5a65d3e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"524\"><span>Image source: American Airlines.</span></p>\n<h2>An obsession with travel companies</h2>\n<p>Another absolute head-scratcher is Robinhood investors' obsession with travel companies -- specifically airlines and cruise ship operators.</p>\n<p>On one hand, the case could be made that the coronavirus pandemic overly punished the travel industry. Though we remain firmly in a global pandemic, increased domestic vaccination rates offer hope that the U.S. could soon put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For instance, the Transportation Security Administration screened over 2 million passengers in a single day in mid-June for the first time since before the pandemic was declared.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, the travel industry tends to be built on mediocre margins, at best, and it typically requires the economy to be running on all cylinders. Despite recovering from a recession, most airline stocks are now lugging around billions in extra debt that they didn't have two years ago. American Airlines, which I've previously anointed as the worst airline stock, has $34 billion in net debt and $48 billion in aggregate debt. The interest American Airlines is going to have to pay to service this debt could cripple its growth initiatives for the next decade.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, companies like Norwegian Cruise Line came perilously close to bankruptcy during the pandemic. Unlike airlines, which are essential for business travel, cruise ships aren't essential. They'll remain at the mercy of the pandemic until it's firmly in the rearview mirror. That means Norwegian may continue losing money well into 2022, if not beyond.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bd808070a9dde55f37210b59edc2e23\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"393\"><span>A Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.</span></p>\n<h2>Alternative energy for autos in focus</h2>\n<p>Lastly, Robinhood investors appear to be going all-in on anything that has to do with alternative/clean energy for vehicles.</p>\n<p>Electric vehicle (EV) kingpin Tesla has surpassed Apple to become the most-held stock on the platform, while Ford, General Motors, Workhorse Group, NIO, and Churchill Capital are other EV producers that found their way into the top 50 leaderboard (GM and Ford predominantly produce combustion-engine vehicles at the moment). If we also include Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Ideanomics, that's nine of the top 48 Robinhood stocks that are devoted to alternative energy adoption for autos.</p>\n<p>There's pretty much no question at this point that EVs and potentially hydrogen fuel cells represent the future of the automotive industry. There's a multi-decade opportunity for consumers and enterprise fleets to switch over to alternative solutions, as well as for ancillary players to build the infrastructure necessary to support EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.</p>\n<p>The issue is that investors have a tendency to overestimate how quickly new technology is adopted, and that's likely what we're witnessing with EVs. The fact that Tesla is worth $647 billion is ludicrous considering that it hasn't demonstrated it can generate a profit from selling its EVs. The only way Tesla has been able to generate a profit is by selling renewable energy credits or taking a one-time benefit from the sale of <b>Bitcoin</b>.</p>\n<p>The EV space is growing increasingly more crowded, and the major auto stocks are investing tens of billions into new models. It's unlikely that Tesla will be able to hold onto its competitive edge for much longer.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in July\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 19:45 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based S&P 500 shedding 34% of its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ACB":"奥罗拉大麻公司","NIO":"蔚来","MSFT":"微软","GPRO":"GoPro","GE":"GE航空航天","PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc.","ZOM":"Zomedica Pharmaceuticals Corp.","AAPL":"苹果","NOK":"诺基亚","AAL":"美国航空","F":"福特汽车","PLUG":"普拉格能源","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","GME":"游戏驿站","PFE":"辉瑞","AMZN":"亚马逊","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮","DIS":"迪士尼","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-july/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2148840288","content_text":"Though volatility has tapered off in recent weeks, investors have received something of a crash course in being patient over the past 17 months. Despite the broad-based S&P 500 shedding 34% of its value in about a month during the first quarter of 2020, we've watched the benchmark index catapult more than 90% off of its lows.\nFor some investors, volatility is something they fear. But for predominantly young and novice retail investors, volatility is the impetus that's driven them to put their money to work in the stock market.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nAs volatility has whipsawed the market, these younger retail investors have found their home with online investing app Robinhood. We know this because Robinhood added approximately 3 million new users in 2020.\nThere are a number of lures for retail investors with Robinhood. For example, Robinhood doesn't charge a commission when stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq exchange are bought or sold. Robinhood is also one of many brokerages that allows for fractional share investing. And, who can forget that Robinhood also gifts free shares of stock to new users.\nIn one respect, it's a fantastic thing to see young people putting their money to work. Time is the biggest ally investors have. The earlier they start putting their money to work, the better chance they have of compounding their nest egg.\nOn the other hand, Robinhood's retail investors have been buying some really awful stocks. Instead of thinking for the long-term, their buying activity demonstrates a willingness to chase momentum plays, penny stocks, and money-losing businesses.\nIf you don't believe me, here's a closer look at the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks as we enter July.\n\n\n\nCompany\nCompany\n\n\n\n\n1. Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA)\n26. Snap \n\n\n2. Apple \n27. Alibaba \n\n\n3. AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC)\n28. Bank of America\n\n\n4. Sundial Growers (NASDAQ:SNDL)\n29. OrganiGram Holdings\n\n\n5. Ford Motor\n30. Coinbase Global\n\n\n6. General Electric\n31. Tilray \n\n\n7. NIO \n32. Facebook \n\n\n8. Walt Disney\n33. Canopy Growth \n\n\n9. Microsoft\n34. Advanced Micro Devices\n\n\n10. Amazon \n35. Starbucks\n\n\n11. American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL)\n36. Twitter\n\n\n12. Plug Power\n37. AT&T\n\n\n13. Nokia\n38. Moderna\n\n\n14. Carnival\n39. NVIDIA\n\n\n15. Aurora Cannabis (NASDAQ:ACB)\n40. FuelCell Energy\n\n\n16. Pfizer\n41. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF\n\n\n17. Zomedica \n42. Coca-Cola\n\n\n18. GoPro \n43. Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH)\n\n\n19. Naked Brand Group\n44. Ideanomics\n\n\n20. Palantir Technologies\n45. Workhorse Group\n\n\n21. GameStop (NYSE:GME)\n46. SPDR S&P 500 ETF\n\n\n22. Delta Air Lines \n47. Virgin Galactic\n\n\n23. BlackBerry\n48. General Motors\n\n\n24. Churchill Capital\n49. Zynga\n\n\n25. Netflix \n50. United Airlines\n\n\n\nData source: Robinhood, as of June 26, 2021. Table by author.\nContinuing to chase meme stocks\nLike bees to honey, retail investors have been inseparable from meme stocks for almost six months. A meme stock is a company valued more for its social media favorability/hype than its operating performance.\nSince mid-January, retail investors have been banding together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options on stocks with high levels of short interest. In many instances, companies with high levels of short interest have poor-performing businesses. This is how we've witnessed GameStop and AMC Entertainment become extremely popular on Robinhood.\nThe good news for GameStop is that it's been able to use its monumental run to sell shares of common stock and raise capital. It's completely erased its debt and given itself more than enough cash to oversee its ongoing transformation into a digital gaming company. To be clear, this doesn't negate the fact that GameStop's previous management team completely dropped the ball on the shift to digital gaming. What it does do is give the company enough capital to at least attempt a transformation.\nThe same can't be said for AMC, which sold the vast majority of its shares six months ago to avoid bankruptcy. Even with a handful of recent capital raises, AMC has well over $3 billion in net debt, and its 2027 bond prices indicate the company is still a bankruptcy risk.\nTo make matters worse, movie theater ticket sales have been in a 19-year decline. Even with a larger share of the movie theater industry, AMC's pie is shrinking. It's pretty clear that social media hype, ignorance of fundamental data, and misinformation are the key drivers behind AMC's irrational rally.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nCanadian cannabis binge\nRobinhood's retail investors also have quite the crush on Canadian marijuana stocks. Five of the 33 most-held companies on Robinhood's leaderboard hail from our neighbor to the north.\nEven though cannabis-focused research company BDSA has forecasted weed sales growth in Canada from $2.6 billion in 2020 to $6.4 billion by 2026, the Canadian pot industry has been a disaster. Regulators have caused all sorts of supply chain issues, consumers have flocked to lower-margin value brands, and Canadian marijuana stocks overzealously expanded and, in some instances, decimated their balance sheets in the process.\nRobinhood investors' fascination with Sundial Growers is nothing short of frustrating. It may well be the single most-avoidable marijuana stock. Although its management team was able to pay off the company's existing debt by issuing stock and conducting debt-for-equity swaps, these share offerings simply haven't stopped. In a little over a seven-month stretch, more than 1.35 billion shares were issued. Sundial is showing zero regard for its shareholders, and its management team hasn't even laid out a concrete plan for how it'll spend its cash.\nWe've seen similar issues from Aurora Cannabis, the second most-popular Canadian weed stock. Once the most-held stock on Robinhood, Aurora has drowned its shareholders in dilution. Even after selling one of its greenhouses and shuttering a number of other cultivation facilities, its cost-cutting has put it nowhere near close to generating a profit. As long as Aurora keeps burning through cash, its management team will continue to issue stock.\nImage source: American Airlines.\nAn obsession with travel companies\nAnother absolute head-scratcher is Robinhood investors' obsession with travel companies -- specifically airlines and cruise ship operators.\nOn one hand, the case could be made that the coronavirus pandemic overly punished the travel industry. Though we remain firmly in a global pandemic, increased domestic vaccination rates offer hope that the U.S. could soon put the pandemic in the rearview mirror. For instance, the Transportation Security Administration screened over 2 million passengers in a single day in mid-June for the first time since before the pandemic was declared.\nOn the other hand, the travel industry tends to be built on mediocre margins, at best, and it typically requires the economy to be running on all cylinders. Despite recovering from a recession, most airline stocks are now lugging around billions in extra debt that they didn't have two years ago. American Airlines, which I've previously anointed as the worst airline stock, has $34 billion in net debt and $48 billion in aggregate debt. The interest American Airlines is going to have to pay to service this debt could cripple its growth initiatives for the next decade.\nMeanwhile, companies like Norwegian Cruise Line came perilously close to bankruptcy during the pandemic. Unlike airlines, which are essential for business travel, cruise ships aren't essential. They'll remain at the mercy of the pandemic until it's firmly in the rearview mirror. That means Norwegian may continue losing money well into 2022, if not beyond.\nA Tesla Model S plugged in for charging. Image source: Tesla.\nAlternative energy for autos in focus\nLastly, Robinhood investors appear to be going all-in on anything that has to do with alternative/clean energy for vehicles.\nElectric vehicle (EV) kingpin Tesla has surpassed Apple to become the most-held stock on the platform, while Ford, General Motors, Workhorse Group, NIO, and Churchill Capital are other EV producers that found their way into the top 50 leaderboard (GM and Ford predominantly produce combustion-engine vehicles at the moment). If we also include Plug Power, FuelCell Energy, and Ideanomics, that's nine of the top 48 Robinhood stocks that are devoted to alternative energy adoption for autos.\nThere's pretty much no question at this point that EVs and potentially hydrogen fuel cells represent the future of the automotive industry. There's a multi-decade opportunity for consumers and enterprise fleets to switch over to alternative solutions, as well as for ancillary players to build the infrastructure necessary to support EVs and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.\nThe issue is that investors have a tendency to overestimate how quickly new technology is adopted, and that's likely what we're witnessing with EVs. The fact that Tesla is worth $647 billion is ludicrous considering that it hasn't demonstrated it can generate a profit from selling its EVs. The only way Tesla has been able to generate a profit is by selling renewable energy credits or taking a one-time benefit from the sale of Bitcoin.\nThe EV space is growing increasingly more crowded, and the major auto stocks are investing tens of billions into new models. It's unlikely that Tesla will be able to hold onto its competitive edge for much longer.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151722104,"gmtCreate":1625108281708,"gmtModify":1703736322381,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ev stock [Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Ev stock [Miser]&nbsp;[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Ev stock [Miser] [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151722104","repostId":"1155548924","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151726845,"gmtCreate":1625108222587,"gmtModify":1703736321061,"author":{"id":"3586230033668947","authorId":"3586230033668947","name":"Begreen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea08d58edd58086405f2b617c28993c8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586230033668947","authorIdStr":"3586230033668947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","listText":"[Thinking]&nbsp;[Thinking]&nbsp;","text":"[Thinking] [Thinking]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/151726845","repostId":"1169757192","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169757192","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625040309,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1169757192?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-30 16:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169757192","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in Wednesday premarket trading After rising for several ","content":"<p>Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in Wednesday&nbsp;premarket trading&nbsp;After rising for several days.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccacc49fbe0c6bbc18abd07d443ebbf5\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p>\n<p>The huge movescome less than a weekafter the San Francisco-based software firm announced a new integration with&nbsp;<b>Instacart</b>. Following that news,investors doubled the priceof MRIN stock as trading volume surged.</p>\n<p>While the integration collaboration is big for Marin — allowing users to manageInstacart ads, something that enables brands to connect with customers more directly at the point of sale — there’s seemingly more going on.</p>\n<p><b>Short Chatter Around MRIN Stock</b></p>\n<p>That “more” is likely the hoard of Reddit’s retail traders, in the absence of any material news regarding the company. In what’s becoming a familiar response, r/WallStreetBets social sentiment on MRIN stock is spiking this morning, asindicated on tracking website Memeberg Terminal.</p>\n<p>The increased chatter comes as retail investorsattempt to push backagainst a potential short attack on a stock with ashort ratio of 0.68, according to Morningstar data. Essentially, this means that short traders need under a day to cover their position based on the average three-month volume of MRIN stock. The short volumeratio stands at 22%.</p>\n<p>MRIN stock has spent most of the last 18 months bouncing around under $2 a share. On Oct. 21, 2020, Marin stock jumped from approximately $1.50 a share to its then-52-week high of $5.70 in a single trading session. Not only that, but this price surge was accompanied by heavy trading volume.</p>\n<p>Over the&nbsp;next few trading days, MRIN stock crashed back to $2.21, shot up to $4.47, and eased back to $2.47. So, our warning from last week still stands: Be aware that this stock is only for folks who can handle a fair amount of volatility.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-30 16:05</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in Wednesday&nbsp;premarket trading&nbsp;After rising for several days.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccacc49fbe0c6bbc18abd07d443ebbf5\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"663\"></p>\n<p>The huge movescome less than a weekafter the San Francisco-based software firm announced a new integration with&nbsp;<b>Instacart</b>. Following that news,investors doubled the priceof MRIN stock as trading volume surged.</p>\n<p>While the integration collaboration is big for Marin — allowing users to manageInstacart ads, something that enables brands to connect with customers more directly at the point of sale — there’s seemingly more going on.</p>\n<p><b>Short Chatter Around MRIN Stock</b></p>\n<p>That “more” is likely the hoard of Reddit’s retail traders, in the absence of any material news regarding the company. In what’s becoming a familiar response, r/WallStreetBets social sentiment on MRIN stock is spiking this morning, asindicated on tracking website Memeberg Terminal.</p>\n<p>The increased chatter comes as retail investorsattempt to push backagainst a potential short attack on a stock with ashort ratio of 0.68, according to Morningstar data. Essentially, this means that short traders need under a day to cover their position based on the average three-month volume of MRIN stock. The short volumeratio stands at 22%.</p>\n<p>MRIN stock has spent most of the last 18 months bouncing around under $2 a share. On Oct. 21, 2020, Marin stock jumped from approximately $1.50 a share to its then-52-week high of $5.70 in a single trading session. Not only that, but this price surge was accompanied by heavy trading volume.</p>\n<p>Over the&nbsp;next few trading days, MRIN stock crashed back to $2.21, shot up to $4.47, and eased back to $2.47. So, our warning from last week still stands: Be aware that this stock is only for folks who can handle a fair amount of volatility.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRIN":"Marin Software Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169757192","content_text":"Marin Software shares tumbled more than 18% in Wednesday premarket trading After rising for several days.\n\nThe huge movescome less than a weekafter the San Francisco-based software firm announced a new integration with Instacart. Following that news,investors doubled the priceof MRIN stock as trading volume surged.\nWhile the integration collaboration is big for Marin — allowing users to manageInstacart ads, something that enables brands to connect with customers more directly at the point of sale — there’s seemingly more going on.\nShort Chatter Around MRIN Stock\nThat “more” is likely the hoard of Reddit’s retail traders, in the absence of any material news regarding the company. In what’s becoming a familiar response, r/WallStreetBets social sentiment on MRIN stock is spiking this morning, asindicated on tracking website Memeberg Terminal.\nThe increased chatter comes as retail investorsattempt to push backagainst a potential short attack on a stock with ashort ratio of 0.68, according to Morningstar data. Essentially, this means that short traders need under a day to cover their position based on the average three-month volume of MRIN stock. The short volumeratio stands at 22%.\nMRIN stock has spent most of the last 18 months bouncing around under $2 a share. On Oct. 21, 2020, Marin stock jumped from approximately $1.50 a share to its then-52-week high of $5.70 in a single trading session. Not only that, but this price surge was accompanied by heavy trading volume.\nOver the next few trading days, MRIN stock crashed back to $2.21, shot up to $4.47, and eased back to $2.47. So, our warning from last week still stands: Be aware that this stock is only for folks who can handle a fair amount of volatility.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}