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2022-01-19

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2022-10-28

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2022-08-02

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The sudden emergence of the battery-swapping track

2021-12-26

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2021-12-22

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data-views=\"1\"></v-v>","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986930055","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9906069761,"gmtCreate":1659455405256,"gmtModify":1705980537242,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586486814388193","authorIdStr":"3586486814388193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"😂intel","listText":"😂intel","text":"😂intel","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9906069761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004195303,"gmtCreate":1642522869716,"gmtModify":1676533718747,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586486814388193","authorIdStr":"3586486814388193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPT\">$All American Pet Company, Inc.(AAPT)$</a>buybuybuy","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPT\">$All American Pet Company, Inc.(AAPT)$</a>buybuybuy","text":"$All American Pet Company, Inc.(AAPT)$buybuybuy","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/13a9bfc305718a60729b94c866e7b8ab","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004195303","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001878456,"gmtCreate":1641224446269,"gmtModify":1676533585125,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586486814388193","authorIdStr":"3586486814388193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🚀gogogo","listText":"🚀gogogo","text":"🚀gogogo","images":[{"img":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/c8a6b1e21f954ec78c680f2f9545b2de","width":"1242","height":"2208"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001878456","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9001053916,"gmtCreate":1641113643759,"gmtModify":1676533573700,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586486814388193","authorIdStr":"3586486814388193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001053916","repostId":"1190319650","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190319650","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641088760,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190319650?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-02 09:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The sudden emergence of the battery-swapping track","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190319650","media":"诗与星空","summary":"最近，蔚来创始人李斌表示：我简直就完全不明白，为什么现在还有人在买油车，完全想不明白。一语激起千层浪，掀起了传统燃油车和电动车的新一轮争论。虽然这句话有营销的成分，但毋庸置疑，电动车已经势不可挡。据乘","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, Li Bin, the founder of Nio, said: I simply don't understand why people are still buying gas trucks now. I don't understand at all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e617dab30a159f85d28acabc8f007519\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A word stirred up a thousand waves, setting off a new round of debate between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.</p><p>While there is a marketing element to this sentence, there is no doubt that electric cars are already overwhelming. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in November 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 20.8%. This is a landmark data. It means that the whole industry is no longer driven by policies, but depends on consumers' independent choices to move forward rapidly.</p><p>If we were discussing the necessity of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, ten years ago, and the endurance of electric vehicles five years ago, we now know that electric vehicles have become the rolling wheels of history. According to Wang Chuanfu, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 30% by the end of 2022. As a technical expert who studies batteries, perhaps the era of electric vehicles is his era.</p><p>However, for the vast majority of consumers, electric vehicles have two unavoidable anxieties.</p><p>First, endurance anxiety. With the introduction of models with an endurance of over 1,000, 600-800 kilometers has become the standard of mid-range electric vehicles, and endurance anxiety basically no longer exists;</p><p>Second, charging anxiety. Charging piles are dotted in large and medium-sized cities, and there is basically no charging anxiety in urban areas. However, running long distances still doesn't make car owners feel too at ease, so that there is news of grabbing charging piles during the National Day holiday.</p><p>Before it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the short term, charging time will still be a bottleneck of electric vehicles in the foreseeable future. However, compared to refueling, the charging scenario is not exactly the same.</p><p>In urban areas, the charging scene gradually shifts to parking lots in commercial districts and residential parking lots, and there is no need for special charging stations. The car owner always has to park, and it is enough to charge when parking, and the time to eat a meal is full. This scene is completely different from a gas station. Although the gas station refuels quickly, it needs to go alone. Charging only needs to be charged with a piggyback when you park.</p><p>Compared with the \"series\" mode of refueling scenario, this \"parallel\" mode of charging has many advantages.</p><p>In addition to charging, there is another track with rising prosperity: battery exchange.</p><p><i>1</i><i><b>The sudden emergence of the power swap industry</b></i></p><p>On April 23, 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a new policy of new energy subsidies, clearly pointing out that new energy vehicles with a starting price of more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, except for vehicles that support the power exchange mode, so as to encourage the development of a new business model of \"power exchange\".</p><p>On November 1, 2021, the national standard GB/T 40032-2021 \"Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Battery Swap\" was officially implemented. This standard was approved and issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standards Committee) in April. This is the first basic and universal national industry standard formulated by China's automobile manufacturing industry in the battery swap industry.</p><p>As of October 2021, a total of 1,086 power swap stations were built in China, representing a year-on-year increase of over 100%. Although the construction of power exchange stations has begun to scale at present, compared with the charging mode, the volume of power exchange mode is relatively small, and there is a large room for development.</p><p>It is reported that the \"Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Exchange Infrastructure\" studied by the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will be officially issued in the near future. Driven by the policy, the difficulties in the power swap mode have gradually broken through. Some organizations expect that the proportion of power swap models will reach 30% in 2025, which will bring a market size of 300 billion yuan.</p><p>Electricity subsidy was once called \"Nio-only\". In fact, not only Nio, but also Dongfeng, Aodong, BAIC, Changan, SAIC, Geely and other enterprises have already cut into the battery exchange track. Among them, Aodong New Energy, which has the most radical planning, plans to complete the construction of 10,000 battery swap stations within five years.</p><p>Nio, Aodongdu and Sinopec signed a cooperation agreement. According to Sinopec's news, Sinopec plans 5,000 power swap stations in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd148e03770822c573468fa6e05bed71\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Considering that there are a large number of national highway stations, rural stations and stations with small urban areas in Sinopec's gas stations, 5,000 stations is about the limit that Sinopec can deploy battery swap stations.</p><p>In addition to the expected part of ordinary passengers to adopt the battery exchange route, the battery exchange heavy truck has taken the stage. On October 28, 2021, in the Notice on Starting the Pilot Work on the Application of Battery Swap Mode of New Energy Vehicles issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, heavy trucks with battery swap were included in the pilot for the first time. Tesla's concept car has not yet been listed, and a number of Chinese companies have launched domestic battery-swapping heavy trucks.</p><p><i>2</i><i><b>New energy vehicles must be parallel with multiple technical routes</b></i></p><p>The author believes that the rapid development of new energy vehicles is behind strategic reasons, not simply for environmental protection.</p><p>First of all, it is out of the need for autonomous and controllable energy. China's crude oil dependence on foreign countries is as high as 73%, and the amount of crude oil imports is second only to chips. In 2020, crude oil imports exceeded 260 billion US dollars, of which 60% of crude oil was refined into refined oil products and burned.</p><p>Ma Yongsheng, chairman of Sinopec Group Co., Ltd. and academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, said: China should speed up structural optimization and ensure energy supply based on domestic. Guided by clean and low-carbon, we will accelerate the development of non-fossil energy, and build a diversified energy supply system for coal, oil, gas, nuclear, new energy and renewable energy, so that non-fossil energy will become the main body of consumption increase by 2025, and the energy system will achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.</p><p>Secondly, it is due to the need of changing lanes and overtaking in core industries.</p><p>According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 106.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and the operating cost was 89.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; Realized a total profit of 6.45 trillion yuan; The operating income margin was approximately 6.08%. Among them, the operating income of automobile manufacturing industry reached 8.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, accounting for 7.68% of the total revenue of industrial enterprises, second only to computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries.</p><p>Automobile consumption accounts for more than one tenth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society, accounting for more than 4% of GDP. Directly related industries account for more than 8% of GDP.</p><p>If the upstream and downstream of the automobile industry are considered, the impact of steel, rubber, petrochemical products and other industries is driven, it is estimated that the proportion of automobile and related industries in GDP is more than 15%.</p><p>Therefore, the automobile industry is also known as the crown of industrial manufacturing industry. To measure whether a country's manufacturing industry is strong, the automobile industry is the most important indicator. However, China's automobile industry started relatively late. In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, up to now, it has not kept up with the international average level in core technologies such as engines and gearboxes.</p><p>Now there is an opportunity to change lanes and overtake: new energy vehicles.</p><p>From this perspective, China's new energy vehicle industry will not repeat the mistakes of the fuel vehicle era, putting eggs in the same basket, leading to over-reliance on oil. It is bound to be multiple routes in parallel, and charging, battery swapping, hydrogen energy, natural gas and even synthetic fuels will all have a place.</p><p>Among them, from the policy level, the power exchange mode is strongly advocated. Through subsidies to support the unique product line in China, the future development, will have unique competitiveness.</p><p><i>3</i><i><b>Opportunities and Risks in the Industry Chain</b></i></p><p>In addition to the famous Nio, Aodong New Energy mentioned above is already the largest independent third-party power swap station construction enterprise. According to the investigation, the actual controller of the company is Cai Dongqing, who started as Audi toys, and has a listed company named Aofei Entertainment.</p><p>New energy is an asset-heavy industry, and the cost of replacing batteries is high, so it is difficult to make a profit at the beginning. It is not difficult to imagine that when there is a special shortage of money, major shareholders are likely to draw blood from listed companies.</p><p>Sure enough, according to the announcement, Cai Dongqing continuously reduced his shares in Aofei Entertainment, and pledged part of his equity to obtain funds through various channels.</p><p>In the keynote speech of \"Speedy Renewal of Energy Pattern Sharing and Empowerment of Urban Travel\", Aodong announced the \"Red Aodong Strategic Plan\", building more than 100 city-level battery exchange service networks, building more than 5,000 20-second speed battery exchange stations, and forming a shared battery exchange platform for multi-brand models serving more than 2 million vehicles.</p><p>The author has seen several taxi battery exchange stations of BAIC New Energy. Although their appearance is not as high-end as that of Nio battery exchange stations, they are fully automatic and unattended, and their battery exchange speed even exceeds that of refueling.</p><p>At present, the scale of power swap stations is not too large, and the whole industry is in its infancy, but it is full of opportunities. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is mainly divided into three major sectors.</p><p>One is equipment manufacturers. Listed companies related to A-share power swap include GCL Nengke, Hanchuan Intelligent, Bozhong Seiko, Shandong Weida and HKUST Intelligent. Among them, Shandong Weida is a supplier in Nio, and the rest are mainly engaged in wind power, intelligent manufacturing, consumer electronics and other fields. It is a \"part-time job\" to be a power swap station.</p><p>The second is battery manufacturers. The demand for power batteries in the power swap industry is exactly the same as that of charging, and the enterprises engaged in power batteries, such as CATL and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, are still benefiting.</p><p>Third, operators. Aodong New Energy, Nio, Sinopec and some host manufacturers involved in the power swap business are all operators of power swap stations.</p><p>Operators are divided into three categories. First, independent third-party power exchange stations, such as Aodong New Energy; Second, the battery exchange stations of host manufacturers, such as NIO and BAIC; The third is a site partner like Sinopec.</p><p>For investors, when choosing an industry, they must choose the node with the most profit retention.</p><p>It is reasonably speculated from the development process of new energy that in the whole battery swap station industry, the power battery industry has entered the Red Sea stage, with fierce competition and not too high gross profit margin; Some head equipment manufacturers will have good gross profit margins; At the beginning, operators belong to asset-heavy operations, mainly relying on financing to burn money to compete.</p><p>For example, Nio began to introduce the policy of grouping batteries, which was welcomed by many car owners. The separation of vehicle and electricity is conducive to alleviating the anxiety of electric vehicle owners about battery attenuation. Battery leasing can always keep the battery in a relatively new state, and it can also reduce the cost of battery use: short-life batteries for urban transportation save rent, and long-distance cruise batteries for long-distance travel increase mileage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf7abf820f1fafb1dd8c45a356718c1\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In particular, the introduction of national standards for the power swap industry is conducive to regulating the market and finally realizing cross-brand unified battery standards. Only in this way will it become an indestructible new energy segment industry.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"syxk","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The sudden emergence of the battery-swapping track</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe sudden emergence of the battery-swapping track\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">诗与星空</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-02 09:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, Li Bin, the founder of Nio, said: I simply don't understand why people are still buying gas trucks now. I don't understand at all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e617dab30a159f85d28acabc8f007519\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A word stirred up a thousand waves, setting off a new round of debate between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.</p><p>While there is a marketing element to this sentence, there is no doubt that electric cars are already overwhelming. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in November 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 20.8%. This is a landmark data. It means that the whole industry is no longer driven by policies, but depends on consumers' independent choices to move forward rapidly.</p><p>If we were discussing the necessity of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, ten years ago, and the endurance of electric vehicles five years ago, we now know that electric vehicles have become the rolling wheels of history. According to Wang Chuanfu, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 30% by the end of 2022. As a technical expert who studies batteries, perhaps the era of electric vehicles is his era.</p><p>However, for the vast majority of consumers, electric vehicles have two unavoidable anxieties.</p><p>First, endurance anxiety. With the introduction of models with an endurance of over 1,000, 600-800 kilometers has become the standard of mid-range electric vehicles, and endurance anxiety basically no longer exists;</p><p>Second, charging anxiety. Charging piles are dotted in large and medium-sized cities, and there is basically no charging anxiety in urban areas. However, running long distances still doesn't make car owners feel too at ease, so that there is news of grabbing charging piles during the National Day holiday.</p><p>Before it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the short term, charging time will still be a bottleneck of electric vehicles in the foreseeable future. However, compared to refueling, the charging scenario is not exactly the same.</p><p>In urban areas, the charging scene gradually shifts to parking lots in commercial districts and residential parking lots, and there is no need for special charging stations. The car owner always has to park, and it is enough to charge when parking, and the time to eat a meal is full. This scene is completely different from a gas station. Although the gas station refuels quickly, it needs to go alone. Charging only needs to be charged with a piggyback when you park.</p><p>Compared with the \"series\" mode of refueling scenario, this \"parallel\" mode of charging has many advantages.</p><p>In addition to charging, there is another track with rising prosperity: battery exchange.</p><p><i>1</i><i><b>The sudden emergence of the power swap industry</b></i></p><p>On April 23, 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a new policy of new energy subsidies, clearly pointing out that new energy vehicles with a starting price of more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, except for vehicles that support the power exchange mode, so as to encourage the development of a new business model of \"power exchange\".</p><p>On November 1, 2021, the national standard GB/T 40032-2021 \"Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Battery Swap\" was officially implemented. This standard was approved and issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standards Committee) in April. This is the first basic and universal national industry standard formulated by China's automobile manufacturing industry in the battery swap industry.</p><p>As of October 2021, a total of 1,086 power swap stations were built in China, representing a year-on-year increase of over 100%. Although the construction of power exchange stations has begun to scale at present, compared with the charging mode, the volume of power exchange mode is relatively small, and there is a large room for development.</p><p>It is reported that the \"Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Exchange Infrastructure\" studied by the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will be officially issued in the near future. Driven by the policy, the difficulties in the power swap mode have gradually broken through. Some organizations expect that the proportion of power swap models will reach 30% in 2025, which will bring a market size of 300 billion yuan.</p><p>Electricity subsidy was once called \"Nio-only\". In fact, not only Nio, but also Dongfeng, Aodong, BAIC, Changan, SAIC, Geely and other enterprises have already cut into the battery exchange track. Among them, Aodong New Energy, which has the most radical planning, plans to complete the construction of 10,000 battery swap stations within five years.</p><p>Nio, Aodongdu and Sinopec signed a cooperation agreement. According to Sinopec's news, Sinopec plans 5,000 power swap stations in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd148e03770822c573468fa6e05bed71\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Considering that there are a large number of national highway stations, rural stations and stations with small urban areas in Sinopec's gas stations, 5,000 stations is about the limit that Sinopec can deploy battery swap stations.</p><p>In addition to the expected part of ordinary passengers to adopt the battery exchange route, the battery exchange heavy truck has taken the stage. On October 28, 2021, in the Notice on Starting the Pilot Work on the Application of Battery Swap Mode of New Energy Vehicles issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, heavy trucks with battery swap were included in the pilot for the first time. Tesla's concept car has not yet been listed, and a number of Chinese companies have launched domestic battery-swapping heavy trucks.</p><p><i>2</i><i><b>New energy vehicles must be parallel with multiple technical routes</b></i></p><p>The author believes that the rapid development of new energy vehicles is behind strategic reasons, not simply for environmental protection.</p><p>First of all, it is out of the need for autonomous and controllable energy. China's crude oil dependence on foreign countries is as high as 73%, and the amount of crude oil imports is second only to chips. In 2020, crude oil imports exceeded 260 billion US dollars, of which 60% of crude oil was refined into refined oil products and burned.</p><p>Ma Yongsheng, chairman of Sinopec Group Co., Ltd. and academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, said: China should speed up structural optimization and ensure energy supply based on domestic. Guided by clean and low-carbon, we will accelerate the development of non-fossil energy, and build a diversified energy supply system for coal, oil, gas, nuclear, new energy and renewable energy, so that non-fossil energy will become the main body of consumption increase by 2025, and the energy system will achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.</p><p>Secondly, it is due to the need of changing lanes and overtaking in core industries.</p><p>According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 106.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and the operating cost was 89.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; Realized a total profit of 6.45 trillion yuan; The operating income margin was approximately 6.08%. Among them, the operating income of automobile manufacturing industry reached 8.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, accounting for 7.68% of the total revenue of industrial enterprises, second only to computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries.</p><p>Automobile consumption accounts for more than one tenth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society, accounting for more than 4% of GDP. Directly related industries account for more than 8% of GDP.</p><p>If the upstream and downstream of the automobile industry are considered, the impact of steel, rubber, petrochemical products and other industries is driven, it is estimated that the proportion of automobile and related industries in GDP is more than 15%.</p><p>Therefore, the automobile industry is also known as the crown of industrial manufacturing industry. To measure whether a country's manufacturing industry is strong, the automobile industry is the most important indicator. However, China's automobile industry started relatively late. In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, up to now, it has not kept up with the international average level in core technologies such as engines and gearboxes.</p><p>Now there is an opportunity to change lanes and overtake: new energy vehicles.</p><p>From this perspective, China's new energy vehicle industry will not repeat the mistakes of the fuel vehicle era, putting eggs in the same basket, leading to over-reliance on oil. It is bound to be multiple routes in parallel, and charging, battery swapping, hydrogen energy, natural gas and even synthetic fuels will all have a place.</p><p>Among them, from the policy level, the power exchange mode is strongly advocated. Through subsidies to support the unique product line in China, the future development, will have unique competitiveness.</p><p><i>3</i><i><b>Opportunities and Risks in the Industry Chain</b></i></p><p>In addition to the famous Nio, Aodong New Energy mentioned above is already the largest independent third-party power swap station construction enterprise. According to the investigation, the actual controller of the company is Cai Dongqing, who started as Audi toys, and has a listed company named Aofei Entertainment.</p><p>New energy is an asset-heavy industry, and the cost of replacing batteries is high, so it is difficult to make a profit at the beginning. It is not difficult to imagine that when there is a special shortage of money, major shareholders are likely to draw blood from listed companies.</p><p>Sure enough, according to the announcement, Cai Dongqing continuously reduced his shares in Aofei Entertainment, and pledged part of his equity to obtain funds through various channels.</p><p>In the keynote speech of \"Speedy Renewal of Energy Pattern Sharing and Empowerment of Urban Travel\", Aodong announced the \"Red Aodong Strategic Plan\", building more than 100 city-level battery exchange service networks, building more than 5,000 20-second speed battery exchange stations, and forming a shared battery exchange platform for multi-brand models serving more than 2 million vehicles.</p><p>The author has seen several taxi battery exchange stations of BAIC New Energy. Although their appearance is not as high-end as that of Nio battery exchange stations, they are fully automatic and unattended, and their battery exchange speed even exceeds that of refueling.</p><p>At present, the scale of power swap stations is not too large, and the whole industry is in its infancy, but it is full of opportunities. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is mainly divided into three major sectors.</p><p>One is equipment manufacturers. Listed companies related to A-share power swap include GCL Nengke, Hanchuan Intelligent, Bozhong Seiko, Shandong Weida and HKUST Intelligent. Among them, Shandong Weida is a supplier in Nio, and the rest are mainly engaged in wind power, intelligent manufacturing, consumer electronics and other fields. It is a \"part-time job\" to be a power swap station.</p><p>The second is battery manufacturers. The demand for power batteries in the power swap industry is exactly the same as that of charging, and the enterprises engaged in power batteries, such as CATL and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, are still benefiting.</p><p>Third, operators. Aodong New Energy, Nio, Sinopec and some host manufacturers involved in the power swap business are all operators of power swap stations.</p><p>Operators are divided into three categories. First, independent third-party power exchange stations, such as Aodong New Energy; Second, the battery exchange stations of host manufacturers, such as NIO and BAIC; The third is a site partner like Sinopec.</p><p>For investors, when choosing an industry, they must choose the node with the most profit retention.</p><p>It is reasonably speculated from the development process of new energy that in the whole battery swap station industry, the power battery industry has entered the Red Sea stage, with fierce competition and not too high gross profit margin; Some head equipment manufacturers will have good gross profit margins; At the beginning, operators belong to asset-heavy operations, mainly relying on financing to burn money to compete.</p><p>For example, Nio began to introduce the policy of grouping batteries, which was welcomed by many car owners. The separation of vehicle and electricity is conducive to alleviating the anxiety of electric vehicle owners about battery attenuation. Battery leasing can always keep the battery in a relatively new state, and it can also reduce the cost of battery use: short-life batteries for urban transportation save rent, and long-distance cruise batteries for long-distance travel increase mileage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf7abf820f1fafb1dd8c45a356718c1\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In particular, the introduction of national standards for the power swap industry is conducive to regulating the market and finally realizing cross-brand unified battery standards. Only in this way will it become an indestructible new energy segment industry.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4MTUzNzQ5MA==&mid=2247504631&idx=1&sn=e0159b8a294d7f56a64beb60f408b486&chksm=eba52c4adcd2a55c29a7be5f1a2b6841425028ec69dc0f73f8c3acf67c17594dfbafc9cb8dcf&scene=126&&sessionid=1641085022\">诗与星空</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf7abf820f1fafb1dd8c45a356718c1","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4MTUzNzQ5MA==&mid=2247504631&idx=1&sn=e0159b8a294d7f56a64beb60f408b486&chksm=eba52c4adcd2a55c29a7be5f1a2b6841425028ec69dc0f73f8c3acf67c17594dfbafc9cb8dcf&scene=126&&sessionid=1641085022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190319650","content_text":"最近，蔚来创始人李斌表示：我简直就完全不明白，为什么现在还有人在买油车，完全想不明白。一语激起千层浪，掀起了传统燃油车和电动车的新一轮争论。虽然这句话有营销的成分，但毋庸置疑，电动车已经势不可挡。据乘联会数据，2021年11月，新能源车零售渗透率达到了20.8%。这是一个具有里程碑意义的数据。意味着整个行业已经不再是政策推动，而是靠消费者自主选择来快速前进了。如果说十年前还在讨论新能源车尤其是电动车的必要性，五年前还在讨论电动车的续航，现在都知道，电动车已经成为历史的滚滚车轮。王传福称，2022年底新能源车渗透率有望突破30%。作为研究电池出身的技术专家，或许电动车时代才是属于他的时代。但是，对于绝大多数消费者来说，电动车有两大无法回避的焦虑。一是续航焦虑，随着续航过千的车型推出，600-800公里成为中端电动车的标配，续航焦虑基本不复存在了；二是充电焦虑，在大中型城市充电桩已经星罗棋布，市区基本不存在充电焦虑，但跑长途还是不太让车主们太放心，以至于国庆假期出现了抢充电桩的新闻。短期内技术难以实现突破之前，可以预见的一定时期的未来，充电时间依然是电动车的一个瓶颈。不过，和加油相比，充电的场景并不完全相同。在市区，充电场景逐渐转移到商业区的停车场、小区停车场，不需要专门的充电站。车主总要停车，停车的时候能充电就可以了，吃顿饭的功夫充满了，这个场景和加油站完全不同。加油站虽然加油快，但需要单独去一趟，充电只需要停车的时候，捎带着就充了。这种充电的“并联”模式和加油场景的“串联”模式相比，存在着不小的优势。而除了充电，还有一个景气度正在不断上升的赛道：换电。1换电行业异军突起2020年4月23日，财政部等四部委联合发布新能源补贴新政，明确指出起售价30万元以上的新能源汽车不再享受补贴，但支持换电模式的车辆例外，以此鼓励“换电”新型商业模式发展。2021年11月1日， GB/T 40032-2021《电动汽车换电安全要求》国家标准正式实施，该标准为国家市场监管总局（国家标准委）于4月份批准发布，这是在中国汽车制造业在换电行业制订的第一个基本通用性国家行业标准。截至2021年10月，中国共计建成换电站1086座，同比增长超过100%。虽然目前换电站的建设已初见规模，但是相比于充电模式，换电模式的体量相对还小，发展空间较大。有报道称，国家能源局会同工信部研究的《关于进一步提升充换电基础设施服务保障能力的实施意见》将于近日正式出台。在政策推动下，换电模式中难点逐步突破，有机构则预计2025年换电车型占比将达30%，由此对应带来3000亿元的市场规模。电补贴一度被称为“蔚来专用”，其实不仅蔚来，东风、奥动、北汽、长安、上汽、吉利等企业都已经切入换电赛道。其中规划最为激进的奥动新能源，计划5年内完成1万座换电站投建。蔚来、奥动都和中石化签署了合作协议，根据中石化方面的消息，中石化未来规划5000座换电站。考虑到中石化的加油站中有大量的国道站、乡村站以及市区面积很小的站，因此5000座站大概是中石化能够部署换电站的极限。除了普通乘用有望部分采用换电路线外，换电重卡已经走上台前。2021年10月28日，工信部《关于启动新能源汽车换电模式应用试点工作的通知》中，首次将换电重卡纳入试点。特斯拉的概念车还未上市，已经有多家中国企业推出了国产换电重卡。2新能源车一定是多种技术路线并行笔者认为，新能源车的高速发展，背后是战略原因，并非简单的为了环保。首先是出于能源自主可控的需要。中国的原油对外依存度高达73%，原油进口金额仅次于芯片，2020年原油进口超过2600亿美元，其中60%的原油被炼制成成品油烧掉。中国石化集团有限公司董事长、中国工程院院士马永生表示：中国要加快结构优化，立足国内保障能源供给。以清洁低碳为导向，加快发展非化石能源，构建煤、油、气、核、新能源、可再生能源多元化能源供应体系，使非化石能源到2025年成为消费增量的主体，能源体系到2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。其次是出于核心工业换道超车的需要。据国家统计局数据，2020年，中国规模以上工业企业营业收入达到106.14万亿元，同比增长0.8%，营业成本为89.04万亿元，同比增0.6%；实现利润总额6.45万亿元；营业收入利润率约为6.08%。其中，汽车制造业营业收入达到8.16万亿元，同比增长3.4%，占到总体工业企业营收的7.68%，仅次于计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业。汽车类消费占整个社会消费品零售总额超过十分之一，占GDP比重超过4%。直接关联行业占GDP比重8%以上。如果考虑到汽车产业的上下游，拉动的钢铁、橡胶、石化产品等行业的影响，汽车及其相关产业，估算占GDP比重在15%以上。所以，汽车工业也有工业制造业的王冠之称，衡量一个国家制造业是否强大，汽车工业是最重要的指标。而中国的汽车工业起步比较晚，在传统燃油车领域，时至今日，在发动机、变速箱等核心技术方面，尚未跟上国际平均水平。现在则有了一个换道超车的机会：新能源车。从这个角度看，中国的新能源车产业不会重犯燃油车时代的错误，把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，导致过度依赖石油。必然是多种路线并行，充电、换电、氢能源、天然气甚至合成燃料都会有一席之地。其中，从政策层面，换电模式受到大力提倡。通过补贴扶持起本国独有的产品线，将来发展起来，会具有独特的竞争力。3产业链的机遇和风险除了名声在外的蔚来，上文提到的奥动新能源已经是最大的独立第三方换电站建设企业。企查查显示，公司的实控人是蔡东青，蔡东青做奥迪玩具起家，名下还有一家上市公司，叫奥飞娱乐。新能源是重资产行业，换电池成本高昂，初期还很难盈利。不难想象，特别缺钱的时候，大股东很有可能会从上市公司抽血。果不其然，据公告，蔡东青不断减持奥飞娱乐的股份，还质押了一部分股权，通过各种途径来套取资金。在《极速焕新能源格局共享赋能城市出行》主题演讲中，奥动对外公布“红色奥动战略计划”，打造100个以上城市级换电服务网络，建设5000座以上20秒极速换电站，形成服务200万车辆规模以上的多品牌车型共享换电平台。笔者曾经见过几个北汽新能源的出租车换电站，虽然外观不像蔚来换电站那样高端大气，但全自动无人值守，换电速度甚至超过加油。目前换电站的规模还不算太大，整个行业也处于刚起步，但充满了机会。从产业链视角来看，主要分三大板块。一是设备生产商。A股换电相关上市公司包括协鑫能科、翰川智能、博众精工、山东威达和科大智能。其中，山东威达是蔚来的供应商，其余几家主要从事风电、智能制造、消费电子等领域，做换电站是“兼职”。二是电池商。换电行业对动力电池的需求和充电是完全一样的，受益的依然是从事动力电池的企业，如宁德时代、国轩高科等。三是运营商。奥动新能源、蔚来以、中石化以及参与换电业务的一部分主机厂商，都属于换电站运营方。运营商又分为三大类，一是独立第三方换电站，如奥动新能源；二是主机厂商的换电站，如蔚来、北汽等；三是中石化这样的场地合作方。对于投资者来说，选择行业一定要选择利润留存最多的节点。从新能源发展过程合理推测，整个换电站行业中，动力电池行业已经进入红海阶段，竞争激烈，毛利率不会太高；部分头部设备生产商会有不错的毛利率；而运营商初期属于重资产运作，主要靠融资烧钱竞争。比如蔚来开始推出组电池的政策，受到不少车主的欢迎。车电分离有利于缓解电动车主对电池衰减的焦虑，电池租赁可以一直将电池维持在比较新的状态，还可以降低电池使用成本：市区代步用短续航电池节约租金，长途远行用长巡航电池增加里程。尤其是换电行业国家标准的出台，有利于规范市场，最终实现跨品牌统一电池标准，如此一来，才会成为一个坚不可摧的新能源细分行业。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009947946,"gmtCreate":1640477312670,"gmtModify":1676533522182,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586486814388193","authorIdStr":"3586486814388193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009947946","repostId":"2194179696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000642864,"gmtCreate":1640179527314,"gmtModify":1676533505050,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586486814388193","authorIdStr":"3586486814388193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"double 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09:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The sudden emergence of the battery-swapping track","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190319650","media":"诗与星空","summary":"最近，蔚来创始人李斌表示：我简直就完全不明白，为什么现在还有人在买油车，完全想不明白。一语激起千层浪，掀起了传统燃油车和电动车的新一轮争论。虽然这句话有营销的成分，但毋庸置疑，电动车已经势不可挡。据乘","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, Li Bin, the founder of Nio, said: I simply don't understand why people are still buying gas trucks now. I don't understand at all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e617dab30a159f85d28acabc8f007519\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A word stirred up a thousand waves, setting off a new round of debate between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.</p><p>While there is a marketing element to this sentence, there is no doubt that electric cars are already overwhelming. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in November 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 20.8%. This is a landmark data. It means that the whole industry is no longer driven by policies, but depends on consumers' independent choices to move forward rapidly.</p><p>If we were discussing the necessity of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, ten years ago, and the endurance of electric vehicles five years ago, we now know that electric vehicles have become the rolling wheels of history. According to Wang Chuanfu, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 30% by the end of 2022. As a technical expert who studies batteries, perhaps the era of electric vehicles is his era.</p><p>However, for the vast majority of consumers, electric vehicles have two unavoidable anxieties.</p><p>First, endurance anxiety. With the introduction of models with an endurance of over 1,000, 600-800 kilometers has become the standard of mid-range electric vehicles, and endurance anxiety basically no longer exists;</p><p>Second, charging anxiety. Charging piles are dotted in large and medium-sized cities, and there is basically no charging anxiety in urban areas. However, running long distances still doesn't make car owners feel too at ease, so that there is news of grabbing charging piles during the National Day holiday.</p><p>Before it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the short term, charging time will still be a bottleneck of electric vehicles in the foreseeable future. However, compared to refueling, the charging scenario is not exactly the same.</p><p>In urban areas, the charging scene gradually shifts to parking lots in commercial districts and residential parking lots, and there is no need for special charging stations. The car owner always has to park, and it is enough to charge when parking, and the time to eat a meal is full. This scene is completely different from a gas station. Although the gas station refuels quickly, it needs to go alone. Charging only needs to be charged with a piggyback when you park.</p><p>Compared with the \"series\" mode of refueling scenario, this \"parallel\" mode of charging has many advantages.</p><p>In addition to charging, there is another track with rising prosperity: battery exchange.</p><p><i>1</i><i><b>The sudden emergence of the power swap industry</b></i></p><p>On April 23, 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a new policy of new energy subsidies, clearly pointing out that new energy vehicles with a starting price of more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, except for vehicles that support the power exchange mode, so as to encourage the development of a new business model of \"power exchange\".</p><p>On November 1, 2021, the national standard GB/T 40032-2021 \"Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Battery Swap\" was officially implemented. This standard was approved and issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standards Committee) in April. This is the first basic and universal national industry standard formulated by China's automobile manufacturing industry in the battery swap industry.</p><p>As of October 2021, a total of 1,086 power swap stations were built in China, representing a year-on-year increase of over 100%. Although the construction of power exchange stations has begun to scale at present, compared with the charging mode, the volume of power exchange mode is relatively small, and there is a large room for development.</p><p>It is reported that the \"Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Exchange Infrastructure\" studied by the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will be officially issued in the near future. Driven by the policy, the difficulties in the power swap mode have gradually broken through. Some organizations expect that the proportion of power swap models will reach 30% in 2025, which will bring a market size of 300 billion yuan.</p><p>Electricity subsidy was once called \"Nio-only\". In fact, not only Nio, but also Dongfeng, Aodong, BAIC, Changan, SAIC, Geely and other enterprises have already cut into the battery exchange track. Among them, Aodong New Energy, which has the most radical planning, plans to complete the construction of 10,000 battery swap stations within five years.</p><p>Nio, Aodongdu and Sinopec signed a cooperation agreement. According to Sinopec's news, Sinopec plans 5,000 power swap stations in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd148e03770822c573468fa6e05bed71\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Considering that there are a large number of national highway stations, rural stations and stations with small urban areas in Sinopec's gas stations, 5,000 stations is about the limit that Sinopec can deploy battery swap stations.</p><p>In addition to the expected part of ordinary passengers to adopt the battery exchange route, the battery exchange heavy truck has taken the stage. On October 28, 2021, in the Notice on Starting the Pilot Work on the Application of Battery Swap Mode of New Energy Vehicles issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, heavy trucks with battery swap were included in the pilot for the first time. Tesla's concept car has not yet been listed, and a number of Chinese companies have launched domestic battery-swapping heavy trucks.</p><p><i>2</i><i><b>New energy vehicles must be parallel with multiple technical routes</b></i></p><p>The author believes that the rapid development of new energy vehicles is behind strategic reasons, not simply for environmental protection.</p><p>First of all, it is out of the need for autonomous and controllable energy. China's crude oil dependence on foreign countries is as high as 73%, and the amount of crude oil imports is second only to chips. In 2020, crude oil imports exceeded 260 billion US dollars, of which 60% of crude oil was refined into refined oil products and burned.</p><p>Ma Yongsheng, chairman of Sinopec Group Co., Ltd. and academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, said: China should speed up structural optimization and ensure energy supply based on domestic. Guided by clean and low-carbon, we will accelerate the development of non-fossil energy, and build a diversified energy supply system for coal, oil, gas, nuclear, new energy and renewable energy, so that non-fossil energy will become the main body of consumption increase by 2025, and the energy system will achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.</p><p>Secondly, it is due to the need of changing lanes and overtaking in core industries.</p><p>According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 106.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and the operating cost was 89.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; Realized a total profit of 6.45 trillion yuan; The operating income margin was approximately 6.08%. Among them, the operating income of automobile manufacturing industry reached 8.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, accounting for 7.68% of the total revenue of industrial enterprises, second only to computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries.</p><p>Automobile consumption accounts for more than one tenth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society, accounting for more than 4% of GDP. Directly related industries account for more than 8% of GDP.</p><p>If the upstream and downstream of the automobile industry are considered, the impact of steel, rubber, petrochemical products and other industries is driven, it is estimated that the proportion of automobile and related industries in GDP is more than 15%.</p><p>Therefore, the automobile industry is also known as the crown of industrial manufacturing industry. To measure whether a country's manufacturing industry is strong, the automobile industry is the most important indicator. However, China's automobile industry started relatively late. In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, up to now, it has not kept up with the international average level in core technologies such as engines and gearboxes.</p><p>Now there is an opportunity to change lanes and overtake: new energy vehicles.</p><p>From this perspective, China's new energy vehicle industry will not repeat the mistakes of the fuel vehicle era, putting eggs in the same basket, leading to over-reliance on oil. It is bound to be multiple routes in parallel, and charging, battery swapping, hydrogen energy, natural gas and even synthetic fuels will all have a place.</p><p>Among them, from the policy level, the power exchange mode is strongly advocated. Through subsidies to support the unique product line in China, the future development, will have unique competitiveness.</p><p><i>3</i><i><b>Opportunities and Risks in the Industry Chain</b></i></p><p>In addition to the famous Nio, Aodong New Energy mentioned above is already the largest independent third-party power swap station construction enterprise. According to the investigation, the actual controller of the company is Cai Dongqing, who started as Audi toys, and has a listed company named Aofei Entertainment.</p><p>New energy is an asset-heavy industry, and the cost of replacing batteries is high, so it is difficult to make a profit at the beginning. It is not difficult to imagine that when there is a special shortage of money, major shareholders are likely to draw blood from listed companies.</p><p>Sure enough, according to the announcement, Cai Dongqing continuously reduced his shares in Aofei Entertainment, and pledged part of his equity to obtain funds through various channels.</p><p>In the keynote speech of \"Speedy Renewal of Energy Pattern Sharing and Empowerment of Urban Travel\", Aodong announced the \"Red Aodong Strategic Plan\", building more than 100 city-level battery exchange service networks, building more than 5,000 20-second speed battery exchange stations, and forming a shared battery exchange platform for multi-brand models serving more than 2 million vehicles.</p><p>The author has seen several taxi battery exchange stations of BAIC New Energy. Although their appearance is not as high-end as that of Nio battery exchange stations, they are fully automatic and unattended, and their battery exchange speed even exceeds that of refueling.</p><p>At present, the scale of power swap stations is not too large, and the whole industry is in its infancy, but it is full of opportunities. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is mainly divided into three major sectors.</p><p>One is equipment manufacturers. Listed companies related to A-share power swap include GCL Nengke, Hanchuan Intelligent, Bozhong Seiko, Shandong Weida and HKUST Intelligent. Among them, Shandong Weida is a supplier in Nio, and the rest are mainly engaged in wind power, intelligent manufacturing, consumer electronics and other fields. It is a \"part-time job\" to be a power swap station.</p><p>The second is battery manufacturers. The demand for power batteries in the power swap industry is exactly the same as that of charging, and the enterprises engaged in power batteries, such as CATL and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, are still benefiting.</p><p>Third, operators. Aodong New Energy, Nio, Sinopec and some host manufacturers involved in the power swap business are all operators of power swap stations.</p><p>Operators are divided into three categories. First, independent third-party power exchange stations, such as Aodong New Energy; Second, the battery exchange stations of host manufacturers, such as NIO and BAIC; The third is a site partner like Sinopec.</p><p>For investors, when choosing an industry, they must choose the node with the most profit retention.</p><p>It is reasonably speculated from the development process of new energy that in the whole battery swap station industry, the power battery industry has entered the Red Sea stage, with fierce competition and not too high gross profit margin; Some head equipment manufacturers will have good gross profit margins; At the beginning, operators belong to asset-heavy operations, mainly relying on financing to burn money to compete.</p><p>For example, Nio began to introduce the policy of grouping batteries, which was welcomed by many car owners. The separation of vehicle and electricity is conducive to alleviating the anxiety of electric vehicle owners about battery attenuation. Battery leasing can always keep the battery in a relatively new state, and it can also reduce the cost of battery use: short-life batteries for urban transportation save rent, and long-distance cruise batteries for long-distance travel increase mileage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf7abf820f1fafb1dd8c45a356718c1\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In particular, the introduction of national standards for the power swap industry is conducive to regulating the market and finally realizing cross-brand unified battery standards. Only in this way will it become an indestructible new energy segment industry.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"syxk","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The sudden emergence of the battery-swapping track</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe sudden emergence of the battery-swapping track\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">诗与星空</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-02 09:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Recently, Li Bin, the founder of Nio, said: I simply don't understand why people are still buying gas trucks now. I don't understand at all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e617dab30a159f85d28acabc8f007519\" tg-width=\"480\" tg-height=\"686\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A word stirred up a thousand waves, setting off a new round of debate between traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles.</p><p>While there is a marketing element to this sentence, there is no doubt that electric cars are already overwhelming. According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, in November 2021, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 20.8%. This is a landmark data. It means that the whole industry is no longer driven by policies, but depends on consumers' independent choices to move forward rapidly.</p><p>If we were discussing the necessity of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, ten years ago, and the endurance of electric vehicles five years ago, we now know that electric vehicles have become the rolling wheels of history. According to Wang Chuanfu, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 30% by the end of 2022. As a technical expert who studies batteries, perhaps the era of electric vehicles is his era.</p><p>However, for the vast majority of consumers, electric vehicles have two unavoidable anxieties.</p><p>First, endurance anxiety. With the introduction of models with an endurance of over 1,000, 600-800 kilometers has become the standard of mid-range electric vehicles, and endurance anxiety basically no longer exists;</p><p>Second, charging anxiety. Charging piles are dotted in large and medium-sized cities, and there is basically no charging anxiety in urban areas. However, running long distances still doesn't make car owners feel too at ease, so that there is news of grabbing charging piles during the National Day holiday.</p><p>Before it is difficult to achieve a breakthrough in the short term, charging time will still be a bottleneck of electric vehicles in the foreseeable future. However, compared to refueling, the charging scenario is not exactly the same.</p><p>In urban areas, the charging scene gradually shifts to parking lots in commercial districts and residential parking lots, and there is no need for special charging stations. The car owner always has to park, and it is enough to charge when parking, and the time to eat a meal is full. This scene is completely different from a gas station. Although the gas station refuels quickly, it needs to go alone. Charging only needs to be charged with a piggyback when you park.</p><p>Compared with the \"series\" mode of refueling scenario, this \"parallel\" mode of charging has many advantages.</p><p>In addition to charging, there is another track with rising prosperity: battery exchange.</p><p><i>1</i><i><b>The sudden emergence of the power swap industry</b></i></p><p>On April 23, 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued a new policy of new energy subsidies, clearly pointing out that new energy vehicles with a starting price of more than 300,000 yuan will no longer enjoy subsidies, except for vehicles that support the power exchange mode, so as to encourage the development of a new business model of \"power exchange\".</p><p>On November 1, 2021, the national standard GB/T 40032-2021 \"Safety Requirements for Electric Vehicle Battery Swap\" was officially implemented. This standard was approved and issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standards Committee) in April. This is the first basic and universal national industry standard formulated by China's automobile manufacturing industry in the battery swap industry.</p><p>As of October 2021, a total of 1,086 power swap stations were built in China, representing a year-on-year increase of over 100%. Although the construction of power exchange stations has begun to scale at present, compared with the charging mode, the volume of power exchange mode is relatively small, and there is a large room for development.</p><p>It is reported that the \"Implementation Opinions on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Charging and Exchange Infrastructure\" studied by the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will be officially issued in the near future. Driven by the policy, the difficulties in the power swap mode have gradually broken through. Some organizations expect that the proportion of power swap models will reach 30% in 2025, which will bring a market size of 300 billion yuan.</p><p>Electricity subsidy was once called \"Nio-only\". In fact, not only Nio, but also Dongfeng, Aodong, BAIC, Changan, SAIC, Geely and other enterprises have already cut into the battery exchange track. Among them, Aodong New Energy, which has the most radical planning, plans to complete the construction of 10,000 battery swap stations within five years.</p><p>Nio, Aodongdu and Sinopec signed a cooperation agreement. According to Sinopec's news, Sinopec plans 5,000 power swap stations in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd148e03770822c573468fa6e05bed71\" tg-width=\"752\" tg-height=\"303\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Considering that there are a large number of national highway stations, rural stations and stations with small urban areas in Sinopec's gas stations, 5,000 stations is about the limit that Sinopec can deploy battery swap stations.</p><p>In addition to the expected part of ordinary passengers to adopt the battery exchange route, the battery exchange heavy truck has taken the stage. On October 28, 2021, in the Notice on Starting the Pilot Work on the Application of Battery Swap Mode of New Energy Vehicles issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, heavy trucks with battery swap were included in the pilot for the first time. Tesla's concept car has not yet been listed, and a number of Chinese companies have launched domestic battery-swapping heavy trucks.</p><p><i>2</i><i><b>New energy vehicles must be parallel with multiple technical routes</b></i></p><p>The author believes that the rapid development of new energy vehicles is behind strategic reasons, not simply for environmental protection.</p><p>First of all, it is out of the need for autonomous and controllable energy. China's crude oil dependence on foreign countries is as high as 73%, and the amount of crude oil imports is second only to chips. In 2020, crude oil imports exceeded 260 billion US dollars, of which 60% of crude oil was refined into refined oil products and burned.</p><p>Ma Yongsheng, chairman of Sinopec Group Co., Ltd. and academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, said: China should speed up structural optimization and ensure energy supply based on domestic. Guided by clean and low-carbon, we will accelerate the development of non-fossil energy, and build a diversified energy supply system for coal, oil, gas, nuclear, new energy and renewable energy, so that non-fossil energy will become the main body of consumption increase by 2025, and the energy system will achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.</p><p>Secondly, it is due to the need of changing lanes and overtaking in core industries.</p><p>According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 106.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and the operating cost was 89.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%; Realized a total profit of 6.45 trillion yuan; The operating income margin was approximately 6.08%. Among them, the operating income of automobile manufacturing industry reached 8.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, accounting for 7.68% of the total revenue of industrial enterprises, second only to computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries.</p><p>Automobile consumption accounts for more than one tenth of the total retail sales of consumer goods in the whole society, accounting for more than 4% of GDP. Directly related industries account for more than 8% of GDP.</p><p>If the upstream and downstream of the automobile industry are considered, the impact of steel, rubber, petrochemical products and other industries is driven, it is estimated that the proportion of automobile and related industries in GDP is more than 15%.</p><p>Therefore, the automobile industry is also known as the crown of industrial manufacturing industry. To measure whether a country's manufacturing industry is strong, the automobile industry is the most important indicator. However, China's automobile industry started relatively late. In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, up to now, it has not kept up with the international average level in core technologies such as engines and gearboxes.</p><p>Now there is an opportunity to change lanes and overtake: new energy vehicles.</p><p>From this perspective, China's new energy vehicle industry will not repeat the mistakes of the fuel vehicle era, putting eggs in the same basket, leading to over-reliance on oil. It is bound to be multiple routes in parallel, and charging, battery swapping, hydrogen energy, natural gas and even synthetic fuels will all have a place.</p><p>Among them, from the policy level, the power exchange mode is strongly advocated. Through subsidies to support the unique product line in China, the future development, will have unique competitiveness.</p><p><i>3</i><i><b>Opportunities and Risks in the Industry Chain</b></i></p><p>In addition to the famous Nio, Aodong New Energy mentioned above is already the largest independent third-party power swap station construction enterprise. According to the investigation, the actual controller of the company is Cai Dongqing, who started as Audi toys, and has a listed company named Aofei Entertainment.</p><p>New energy is an asset-heavy industry, and the cost of replacing batteries is high, so it is difficult to make a profit at the beginning. It is not difficult to imagine that when there is a special shortage of money, major shareholders are likely to draw blood from listed companies.</p><p>Sure enough, according to the announcement, Cai Dongqing continuously reduced his shares in Aofei Entertainment, and pledged part of his equity to obtain funds through various channels.</p><p>In the keynote speech of \"Speedy Renewal of Energy Pattern Sharing and Empowerment of Urban Travel\", Aodong announced the \"Red Aodong Strategic Plan\", building more than 100 city-level battery exchange service networks, building more than 5,000 20-second speed battery exchange stations, and forming a shared battery exchange platform for multi-brand models serving more than 2 million vehicles.</p><p>The author has seen several taxi battery exchange stations of BAIC New Energy. Although their appearance is not as high-end as that of Nio battery exchange stations, they are fully automatic and unattended, and their battery exchange speed even exceeds that of refueling.</p><p>At present, the scale of power swap stations is not too large, and the whole industry is in its infancy, but it is full of opportunities. From the perspective of industrial chain, it is mainly divided into three major sectors.</p><p>One is equipment manufacturers. Listed companies related to A-share power swap include GCL Nengke, Hanchuan Intelligent, Bozhong Seiko, Shandong Weida and HKUST Intelligent. Among them, Shandong Weida is a supplier in Nio, and the rest are mainly engaged in wind power, intelligent manufacturing, consumer electronics and other fields. It is a \"part-time job\" to be a power swap station.</p><p>The second is battery manufacturers. The demand for power batteries in the power swap industry is exactly the same as that of charging, and the enterprises engaged in power batteries, such as CATL and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, are still benefiting.</p><p>Third, operators. Aodong New Energy, Nio, Sinopec and some host manufacturers involved in the power swap business are all operators of power swap stations.</p><p>Operators are divided into three categories. First, independent third-party power exchange stations, such as Aodong New Energy; Second, the battery exchange stations of host manufacturers, such as NIO and BAIC; The third is a site partner like Sinopec.</p><p>For investors, when choosing an industry, they must choose the node with the most profit retention.</p><p>It is reasonably speculated from the development process of new energy that in the whole battery swap station industry, the power battery industry has entered the Red Sea stage, with fierce competition and not too high gross profit margin; Some head equipment manufacturers will have good gross profit margins; At the beginning, operators belong to asset-heavy operations, mainly relying on financing to burn money to compete.</p><p>For example, Nio began to introduce the policy of grouping batteries, which was welcomed by many car owners. The separation of vehicle and electricity is conducive to alleviating the anxiety of electric vehicle owners about battery attenuation. Battery leasing can always keep the battery in a relatively new state, and it can also reduce the cost of battery use: short-life batteries for urban transportation save rent, and long-distance cruise batteries for long-distance travel increase mileage.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf7abf820f1fafb1dd8c45a356718c1\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In particular, the introduction of national standards for the power swap industry is conducive to regulating the market and finally realizing cross-brand unified battery standards. Only in this way will it become an indestructible new energy segment industry.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4MTUzNzQ5MA==&mid=2247504631&idx=1&sn=e0159b8a294d7f56a64beb60f408b486&chksm=eba52c4adcd2a55c29a7be5f1a2b6841425028ec69dc0f73f8c3acf67c17594dfbafc9cb8dcf&scene=126&&sessionid=1641085022\">诗与星空</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bf7abf820f1fafb1dd8c45a356718c1","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI4MTUzNzQ5MA==&mid=2247504631&idx=1&sn=e0159b8a294d7f56a64beb60f408b486&chksm=eba52c4adcd2a55c29a7be5f1a2b6841425028ec69dc0f73f8c3acf67c17594dfbafc9cb8dcf&scene=126&&sessionid=1641085022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190319650","content_text":"最近，蔚来创始人李斌表示：我简直就完全不明白，为什么现在还有人在买油车，完全想不明白。一语激起千层浪，掀起了传统燃油车和电动车的新一轮争论。虽然这句话有营销的成分，但毋庸置疑，电动车已经势不可挡。据乘联会数据，2021年11月，新能源车零售渗透率达到了20.8%。这是一个具有里程碑意义的数据。意味着整个行业已经不再是政策推动，而是靠消费者自主选择来快速前进了。如果说十年前还在讨论新能源车尤其是电动车的必要性，五年前还在讨论电动车的续航，现在都知道，电动车已经成为历史的滚滚车轮。王传福称，2022年底新能源车渗透率有望突破30%。作为研究电池出身的技术专家，或许电动车时代才是属于他的时代。但是，对于绝大多数消费者来说，电动车有两大无法回避的焦虑。一是续航焦虑，随着续航过千的车型推出，600-800公里成为中端电动车的标配，续航焦虑基本不复存在了；二是充电焦虑，在大中型城市充电桩已经星罗棋布，市区基本不存在充电焦虑，但跑长途还是不太让车主们太放心，以至于国庆假期出现了抢充电桩的新闻。短期内技术难以实现突破之前，可以预见的一定时期的未来，充电时间依然是电动车的一个瓶颈。不过，和加油相比，充电的场景并不完全相同。在市区，充电场景逐渐转移到商业区的停车场、小区停车场，不需要专门的充电站。车主总要停车，停车的时候能充电就可以了，吃顿饭的功夫充满了，这个场景和加油站完全不同。加油站虽然加油快，但需要单独去一趟，充电只需要停车的时候，捎带着就充了。这种充电的“并联”模式和加油场景的“串联”模式相比，存在着不小的优势。而除了充电，还有一个景气度正在不断上升的赛道：换电。1换电行业异军突起2020年4月23日，财政部等四部委联合发布新能源补贴新政，明确指出起售价30万元以上的新能源汽车不再享受补贴，但支持换电模式的车辆例外，以此鼓励“换电”新型商业模式发展。2021年11月1日， GB/T 40032-2021《电动汽车换电安全要求》国家标准正式实施，该标准为国家市场监管总局（国家标准委）于4月份批准发布，这是在中国汽车制造业在换电行业制订的第一个基本通用性国家行业标准。截至2021年10月，中国共计建成换电站1086座，同比增长超过100%。虽然目前换电站的建设已初见规模，但是相比于充电模式，换电模式的体量相对还小，发展空间较大。有报道称，国家能源局会同工信部研究的《关于进一步提升充换电基础设施服务保障能力的实施意见》将于近日正式出台。在政策推动下，换电模式中难点逐步突破，有机构则预计2025年换电车型占比将达30%，由此对应带来3000亿元的市场规模。电补贴一度被称为“蔚来专用”，其实不仅蔚来，东风、奥动、北汽、长安、上汽、吉利等企业都已经切入换电赛道。其中规划最为激进的奥动新能源，计划5年内完成1万座换电站投建。蔚来、奥动都和中石化签署了合作协议，根据中石化方面的消息，中石化未来规划5000座换电站。考虑到中石化的加油站中有大量的国道站、乡村站以及市区面积很小的站，因此5000座站大概是中石化能够部署换电站的极限。除了普通乘用有望部分采用换电路线外，换电重卡已经走上台前。2021年10月28日，工信部《关于启动新能源汽车换电模式应用试点工作的通知》中，首次将换电重卡纳入试点。特斯拉的概念车还未上市，已经有多家中国企业推出了国产换电重卡。2新能源车一定是多种技术路线并行笔者认为，新能源车的高速发展，背后是战略原因，并非简单的为了环保。首先是出于能源自主可控的需要。中国的原油对外依存度高达73%，原油进口金额仅次于芯片，2020年原油进口超过2600亿美元，其中60%的原油被炼制成成品油烧掉。中国石化集团有限公司董事长、中国工程院院士马永生表示：中国要加快结构优化，立足国内保障能源供给。以清洁低碳为导向，加快发展非化石能源，构建煤、油、气、核、新能源、可再生能源多元化能源供应体系，使非化石能源到2025年成为消费增量的主体，能源体系到2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。其次是出于核心工业换道超车的需要。据国家统计局数据，2020年，中国规模以上工业企业营业收入达到106.14万亿元，同比增长0.8%，营业成本为89.04万亿元，同比增0.6%；实现利润总额6.45万亿元；营业收入利润率约为6.08%。其中，汽车制造业营业收入达到8.16万亿元，同比增长3.4%，占到总体工业企业营收的7.68%，仅次于计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业。汽车类消费占整个社会消费品零售总额超过十分之一，占GDP比重超过4%。直接关联行业占GDP比重8%以上。如果考虑到汽车产业的上下游，拉动的钢铁、橡胶、石化产品等行业的影响，汽车及其相关产业，估算占GDP比重在15%以上。所以，汽车工业也有工业制造业的王冠之称，衡量一个国家制造业是否强大，汽车工业是最重要的指标。而中国的汽车工业起步比较晚，在传统燃油车领域，时至今日，在发动机、变速箱等核心技术方面，尚未跟上国际平均水平。现在则有了一个换道超车的机会：新能源车。从这个角度看，中国的新能源车产业不会重犯燃油车时代的错误，把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，导致过度依赖石油。必然是多种路线并行，充电、换电、氢能源、天然气甚至合成燃料都会有一席之地。其中，从政策层面，换电模式受到大力提倡。通过补贴扶持起本国独有的产品线，将来发展起来，会具有独特的竞争力。3产业链的机遇和风险除了名声在外的蔚来，上文提到的奥动新能源已经是最大的独立第三方换电站建设企业。企查查显示，公司的实控人是蔡东青，蔡东青做奥迪玩具起家，名下还有一家上市公司，叫奥飞娱乐。新能源是重资产行业，换电池成本高昂，初期还很难盈利。不难想象，特别缺钱的时候，大股东很有可能会从上市公司抽血。果不其然，据公告，蔡东青不断减持奥飞娱乐的股份，还质押了一部分股权，通过各种途径来套取资金。在《极速焕新能源格局共享赋能城市出行》主题演讲中，奥动对外公布“红色奥动战略计划”，打造100个以上城市级换电服务网络，建设5000座以上20秒极速换电站，形成服务200万车辆规模以上的多品牌车型共享换电平台。笔者曾经见过几个北汽新能源的出租车换电站，虽然外观不像蔚来换电站那样高端大气，但全自动无人值守，换电速度甚至超过加油。目前换电站的规模还不算太大，整个行业也处于刚起步，但充满了机会。从产业链视角来看，主要分三大板块。一是设备生产商。A股换电相关上市公司包括协鑫能科、翰川智能、博众精工、山东威达和科大智能。其中，山东威达是蔚来的供应商，其余几家主要从事风电、智能制造、消费电子等领域，做换电站是“兼职”。二是电池商。换电行业对动力电池的需求和充电是完全一样的，受益的依然是从事动力电池的企业，如宁德时代、国轩高科等。三是运营商。奥动新能源、蔚来以、中石化以及参与换电业务的一部分主机厂商，都属于换电站运营方。运营商又分为三大类，一是独立第三方换电站，如奥动新能源；二是主机厂商的换电站，如蔚来、北汽等；三是中石化这样的场地合作方。对于投资者来说，选择行业一定要选择利润留存最多的节点。从新能源发展过程合理推测，整个换电站行业中，动力电池行业已经进入红海阶段，竞争激烈，毛利率不会太高；部分头部设备生产商会有不错的毛利率；而运营商初期属于重资产运作，主要靠融资烧钱竞争。比如蔚来开始推出组电池的政策，受到不少车主的欢迎。车电分离有利于缓解电动车主对电池衰减的焦虑，电池租赁可以一直将电池维持在比较新的状态，还可以降低电池使用成本：市区代步用短续航电池节约租金，长途远行用长巡航电池增加里程。尤其是换电行业国家标准的出台，有利于规范市场，最终实现跨品牌统一电池标准，如此一来，才会成为一个坚不可摧的新能源细分行业。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009947946,"gmtCreate":1640477312670,"gmtModify":1676533522182,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586486814388193","idStr":"3586486814388193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009947946","repostId":"2194179696","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9000642864,"gmtCreate":1640179527314,"gmtModify":1676533505050,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586486814388193","idStr":"3586486814388193"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"double up later&nbsp;","listText":"double up later&nbsp;","text":"double up later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9000642864","repostId":"9000820399","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":9000820399,"gmtCreate":1640116006552,"gmtModify":1676533501319,"author":{"id":"3575180506269986","authorId":"3575180506269986","name":"TYR34L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42d39c7527b3048fad8725b467017fe","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575180506269986","idStr":"3575180506269986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPT\">$All American Pet Company, Inc.(AAPT)$</a>Lets see","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/AAPT\">$All American Pet Company, Inc.(AAPT)$</a>Lets see","text":"$All American Pet Company, Inc.(AAPT)$Lets 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