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紫凤凰

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2022-10-06

$拼多多(PDD)$.

2021-09-23

$特斯拉(TSLA)$???

2021-07-21

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[Focus] Emerging electric vehicle manufacturers surge, with XPeng and Li Auto rising over 7%.

2021-08-19

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Tesla's AI Day has kicked off; what is the capital market paying attention to?

2021-07-16

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Snap has surged 300% since the pandemic; does it still have investment potential?

2021-07-14

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Will US inflation continue to exceed expectations?

2021-09-04

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2021-09-02

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2021-09-01

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2021-08-31

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me":"2021-08-19 13:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's AI Day has kicked off; what is the capital market paying attention to?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160783754","media":"金十数据","summary":"19日，特斯拉将召开AI日，展示公司在人工智能领域取得的进展。","content":"<p>America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The time is 5 PM on August 19th.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An AI Day will be held at the company's Palo Alto headquarters to showcase its capabilities in artificial intelligence.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Progress made in the field.</p><p>In its invitation, Tesla stated that<b><u>The entire event will consist of a speech by Musk, a demonstration of software and hardware by Tesla engineers, and a test drive of the Model S Plaid.</u></b>Attendees will be among the first to learn about the company's latest advancements in supercomputers and neural network training, while Tesla will also showcase the applications of AI in fields beyond automobiles.</p><p>Although AI Day is theoretically primarily an event for engineers, given the increasing influence of electric vehicles and the industry chain on the capital market...<b>Any technological breakthrough by a leading electric vehicle manufacturer could trigger unusual movements in the industry sector.</b>。 Based on media reports and insights from industry analysts, the following are projects that investors should pay close attention to this year's AI Day.</p><p><b>Demonstrating the safety of automated (assisted) driving</b></p><p>Although Tesla explicitly mentions \"applications outside of automobiles,\" there is no doubt that autonomous driving, as the company's primary application area, cannot be absent, especially given the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's announcement on Monday of a formal investigation into the technology.</p><p>Jane Edmondson, founder and CEO of EQM Indexes, said that Tesla may introduce how to improve FSD functionality through AI. Wall Street is now anxiously waiting for the leading companies developing this technology to come forward and say there are ways to improve its security. Many people are not confident in handing over control of cars to computers, but if there are more AI integrations that are better than human intelligence, you can argue that it is safe.</p><p>In addition, Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Funds, said that although Musk had vowed to achieve Level 5 autonomous driving by 2021, the public is not expected to begin to experience Level 4 autonomous driving until at least 2024.</p><p>Since Autopilot Day in 2019, Tesla announced in May that the Model 3/Y in North America would no longer use radar to implement features such as Autopilot, and would instead use camera images and neural network drive systems. Meanwhile, in July of this year, Tesla announced that in addition to spending $10,000 to purchase FSD, users could also subscribe to the service for $199 per month, and the subscription fee for vehicles already equipped with Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) is $99 per month.</p><p>Munster projects that over the next decade (2031), the FSD feature alone will generate $159 billion in revenue and $102 billion in operating profit. Renowned investor Katherine Wood once identified the large-scale application of FSD as the next catalyst for Tesla's stock price, giving target prices of $1,000 this year and $3,000 in 2025.</p><p><b>The leading electric vehicle brand has been upgraded to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Faucet?</b></p><p>At the Q1 earnings conference this year, Musk said that in the long run, people will see Tesla as a robotics company, just like car companies and energy companies are currently positioned.</p><p>The capital market is wondering when Tesla will be able to compete with Waymo.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>The launch of autonomous taxi services, similar to those offered by competitors, has been anticipated. Edmondson believes that from Tesla's perspective, providing a plan for self-driving trucks/buses is a reasonable application of existing technology.</p><p>The market is looking for clues to Tesla's explicit statement in its invitation that it will have \"applications beyond automobiles\" from Musk's numerous public statements. During the second-quarter earnings call, Musk again complained about the difficulties of manufacturing those car-making machines, saying that the company manufactures a crazy number of machines internally. This may suggest that AI technology will be applied to the field of building robots.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk twice mentioned developing \"smart and energy-efficient home products\" in 2018 and 2020, so the market shouldn't be too surprised if Musk launches an HVAC system on Thursday.</p><p><b>Will the AI Day talks focus on lithium mining?</b></p><p>At Battery Day last September, Musk mentioned that the company had acquired the rights to 10,000 acres of land in Nevada to produce “green lithium” from clay deposits using a “proprietary method.” Therefore, Musk may also update the project's progress at Thursday's event. Compared to nickel and cobalt, which are more polluting during mining, Tesla's pursuit of environmental protection relies more on the production capacity of iron and green lithium.</p><p>Meanwhile, in addition to production robots deployed in factories around the world, the help of machine learning in supply chain management may also appear at Thursday's event. Edmondson stated that AI can tell you where to find the metals needed for various productions, and it will also be a powerful supply chain management tool in the current chip shortage.</p><p><b>\"Dojo\" supercomputer unveiled & chip upgraded</b></p><p>The Dojo supercomputer is a product that Tesla has been announcing for a long time but has not yet disclosed its performance in detail. AI Day will be an excellent opportunity to showcase it. The role of this computer is to train neural networks so that autonomous driving products have similar perceptions and capabilities to human drivers.</p><p>However, based on Musk's previous remarks, Tesla clearly has plans to share the results of the \"dojo\" with other automakers, and it cannot be ruled out that the company may launch a hardware product to facilitate related progress. Earlier this year, there were rumors that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>A 5nm chip is being designed for Tesla's self-driving cars, which is related to the disassembled electronic devices shown on the invitation cover. It was on Autonomous Driving Day in 2019 that Tesla released Hardware 3.0 and its self-developed FSD chip.</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's AI Day has kicked off; what is the capital market paying attention to?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's AI Day has kicked off; what is the capital market paying attention to?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The time is 5 PM on August 19th.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An AI Day will be held at the company's Palo Alto headquarters to showcase its capabilities in artificial intelligence.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Progress made in the field.</p><p>In its invitation, Tesla stated that<b><u>The entire event will consist of a speech by Musk, a demonstration of software and hardware by Tesla engineers, and a test drive of the Model S Plaid.</u></b>Attendees will be among the first to learn about the company's latest advancements in supercomputers and neural network training, while Tesla will also showcase the applications of AI in fields beyond automobiles.</p><p>Although AI Day is theoretically primarily an event for engineers, given the increasing influence of electric vehicles and the industry chain on the capital market...<b>Any technological breakthrough by a leading electric vehicle manufacturer could trigger unusual movements in the industry sector.</b>。 Based on media reports and insights from industry analysts, the following are projects that investors should pay close attention to this year's AI Day.</p><p><b>Demonstrating the safety of automated (assisted) driving</b></p><p>Although Tesla explicitly mentions \"applications outside of automobiles,\" there is no doubt that autonomous driving, as the company's primary application area, cannot be absent, especially given the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's announcement on Monday of a formal investigation into the technology.</p><p>Jane Edmondson, founder and CEO of EQM Indexes, said that Tesla may introduce how to improve FSD functionality through AI. Wall Street is now anxiously waiting for the leading companies developing this technology to come forward and say there are ways to improve its security. Many people are not confident in handing over control of cars to computers, but if there are more AI integrations that are better than human intelligence, you can argue that it is safe.</p><p>In addition, Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Funds, said that although Musk had vowed to achieve Level 5 autonomous driving by 2021, the public is not expected to begin to experience Level 4 autonomous driving until at least 2024.</p><p>Since Autopilot Day in 2019, Tesla announced in May that the Model 3/Y in North America would no longer use radar to implement features such as Autopilot, and would instead use camera images and neural network drive systems. Meanwhile, in July of this year, Tesla announced that in addition to spending $10,000 to purchase FSD, users could also subscribe to the service for $199 per month, and the subscription fee for vehicles already equipped with Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) is $99 per month.</p><p>Munster projects that over the next decade (2031), the FSD feature alone will generate $159 billion in revenue and $102 billion in operating profit. Renowned investor Katherine Wood once identified the large-scale application of FSD as the next catalyst for Tesla's stock price, giving target prices of $1,000 this year and $3,000 in 2025.</p><p><b>The leading electric vehicle brand has been upgraded to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Faucet?</b></p><p>At the Q1 earnings conference this year, Musk said that in the long run, people will see Tesla as a robotics company, just like car companies and energy companies are currently positioned.</p><p>The capital market is wondering when Tesla will be able to compete with Waymo.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>The launch of autonomous taxi services, similar to those offered by competitors, has been anticipated. Edmondson believes that from Tesla's perspective, providing a plan for self-driving trucks/buses is a reasonable application of existing technology.</p><p>The market is looking for clues to Tesla's explicit statement in its invitation that it will have \"applications beyond automobiles\" from Musk's numerous public statements. During the second-quarter earnings call, Musk again complained about the difficulties of manufacturing those car-making machines, saying that the company manufactures a crazy number of machines internally. This may suggest that AI technology will be applied to the field of building robots.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk twice mentioned developing \"smart and energy-efficient home products\" in 2018 and 2020, so the market shouldn't be too surprised if Musk launches an HVAC system on Thursday.</p><p><b>Will the AI Day talks focus on lithium mining?</b></p><p>At Battery Day last September, Musk mentioned that the company had acquired the rights to 10,000 acres of land in Nevada to produce “green lithium” from clay deposits using a “proprietary method.” Therefore, Musk may also update the project's progress at Thursday's event. Compared to nickel and cobalt, which are more polluting during mining, Tesla's pursuit of environmental protection relies more on the production capacity of iron and green lithium.</p><p>Meanwhile, in addition to production robots deployed in factories around the world, the help of machine learning in supply chain management may also appear at Thursday's event. Edmondson stated that AI can tell you where to find the metals needed for various productions, and it will also be a powerful supply chain management tool in the current chip shortage.</p><p><b>\"Dojo\" supercomputer unveiled & chip upgraded</b></p><p>The Dojo supercomputer is a product that Tesla has been announcing for a long time but has not yet disclosed its performance in detail. AI Day will be an excellent opportunity to showcase it. The role of this computer is to train neural networks so that autonomous driving products have similar perceptions and capabilities to human drivers.</p><p>However, based on Musk's previous remarks, Tesla clearly has plans to share the results of the \"dojo\" with other automakers, and it cannot be ruled out that the company may launch a hardware product to facilitate related progress. Earlier this year, there were rumors that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>A 5nm chip is being designed for Tesla's self-driving cars, which is related to the disassembled electronic devices shown on the invitation cover. It was on Autonomous Driving Day in 2019 that Tesla released Hardware 3.0 and its self-developed FSD chip.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=80361&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4c46d4b2afae6942831cdc849f2072","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=80361&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160783754","content_text":"美国太平洋时间8月19日下午17点，特斯拉将在帕罗奥图总部召开AI日，展示公司在人工智能领域取得的进展。\n特斯拉在发出的邀请函中表示，整场活动将由马斯克的演讲、特斯拉工程师对软硬件的演示、Model S Plaid试驾等环节组成。与会者将成为第一批了解公司在超级计算机、神经网络训练方面的最新进展，同时特斯拉也会展现AI在汽车以外领域的应用。\n虽然AI日理论上主要是针对工程师的活动，但在电动车及产业链对资本市场影响力逐渐提升的当下，电动车龙头在技术领域的任何突破都有可能引发行业板块的异动。综合媒体报道和行业分析师见解，以下为今年AI日投资者应当密切关注的项目。\n论证自动（辅助）驾驶安全性\n虽然特斯拉明确提及“汽车以外的应用”，但毫无疑问作为公司最主要的应用领域，自动驾驶不可能缺席，特别是在本周一美国国家公路交通安全管理局宣布对这项技术展开正式调查的背景下。\nEQM Indexes创始人兼CEO Jane Edmondson表示，到时候特斯拉可能会介绍如何通过AI来提升FSD功能。现在华尔街很焦虑地在等待开发这项技术的龙头企业能够站出来说有办法提高这项技术的安全性。许多人并没有信心把汽车操控权交给电脑，但如果有更多比人类智能更好的人工智能集成，你就可以论证（这项技术）它是安全的。\n此外Loup Funds管理合伙人Gene Munster表示，虽然马斯克曾经放话在2021年实现L5级别的自动驾驶，但预期公众至少要到2024年才能开始接触L4级别的自动驾驶。\n自从2019年自动驾驶日后，特斯拉在今年五月宣布北美地区的Model 3/Y不再使用雷达实现Autopilot等功能，将转向使用摄像头画面和神经网络驱动系统。同时在今年7月特斯拉宣布用户除了花费10000美元购买FSD以外，同时能够以每月199美元订阅这项服务，已经配备增强型自动驾驶仪（EAP）的车辆订阅费用为每月99美元。\nMunster预计，未来十年（2031年）光是FSD一项功能就能实现1590亿美元的营收，营业利润达到1020亿美元。知名投资人凯瑟琳·伍德就曾把FSD规模应用作为特斯拉股价的下一个催化剂，给出年内1000美元和2025年3000美元的目标价。\n电动车龙头升级为机器人龙头？\n在今年一季报的财报发布会上，马斯克曾表示长期来看人们将会把特斯拉看作是一家机器人公司，与现在汽车公司以及能源公司的定位一样。\n资本市场对于特斯拉何时能够与Waymo/百度阿波罗等竞品一样推出自动驾驶出租车服务一直有所预期。Edmondson认为，从特斯拉的角度来说，给出自动驾驶卡车/巴士的计划是对现有技术的合理应用。\n对于特斯拉在邀请函中明确表示会有“汽车以外的应用”，市场正在从马斯克海量的公开发言中寻找蛛丝马迹。在二季度财报会上，马斯克再度抱怨了制造那些造车机器的困难，并称公司内部制造了疯狂数量的机器。这有可能在暗示AI技术会应用在建造机器人领域。\n此外，在2018年和2020年马斯克曾经两度提及开发“智能且节能的家居产品”，如果马斯克周四推出一套暖通系统（HVAC），市场不应该感到太意外。\nAI日会谈及锂矿么？\n在去年九月的电池日，马斯克曾提及公司已获得内华达州10000英亩土地的权利，可以使用“专有方法”从粘土矿床中生产“绿锂”。所以周四的活动上马斯克也有可能更新项目的进展情况，相较于开采时污染更大的镍和钴，特斯拉对于环保的追求更多需要寄托在铁和绿锂的产能。\n同时，除了遍布全球工厂的生产机器人外，机器学习对于供应链管理的帮助也有可能出现在周四的活动中。Edmondson表示，AI可以告诉你各种生产所需要的金属能从哪里找到，同时在芯片短缺的当下，它也会是强大的供应链管理工具。\n“道场”超算亮相&芯片升级\n“道场”（Dojo）超算是特斯拉公开已久但尚未详细披露性能的产品，AI日将会是绝佳的展示机会。这个计算机的作用就是训练神经网络，使得自动驾驶类产品具有与人类驾驶员类似的感知和能力。\n但基于马斯克之前的讲话，特斯拉显然有向其他车厂分享“道场”成果的计划，并不排除公司可能会推出一款硬件促进相关进展。今年年初曾经有传言称三星正在为特斯拉自动驾驶汽车设计一款5nm芯片，这正与邀请函封面上呈现的电子设备拆解图产生了关联性。正是在2019年的自动驾驶日上，特斯拉发布了Hardware 3.0和自研FSD芯片。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831107995,"gmtCreate":1629293630317,"gmtModify":1676529993909,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586564505552956","idStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a198eaf097929796195d2872394c4d2","width":"1080","height":"2054"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/831107995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839159710,"gmtCreate":1629128478130,"gmtModify":1676529941286,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586564505552956","idStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d8c882bd96b77def2ae79c0465b6156","width":"1080","height":"2054"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/839159710","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897528240,"gmtCreate":1628946266180,"gmtModify":1676529898019,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586564505552956","idStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"&nbsp;???","listText":"&nbsp;???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e948d5260380f4a4680fd3eedd25958e","width":"1080","height":"2240"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/897528240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898172195,"gmtCreate":1628481174017,"gmtModify":1703506790571,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586564505552956","idStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"????","listText":"????","text":"????","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5341ddee05ae66ebf54b6f1f31591801","width":"1080","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/898172195","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2307,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891713589,"gmtCreate":1628427576341,"gmtModify":1703506142774,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586564505552956","idStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c8288af3bde1442e33d83bfa8ac0fbf","width":"1080","height":"1933"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/891713589","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":9915517722,"gmtCreate":1665068698367,"gmtModify":1676537552578,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586564505552956","authorIdStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>.","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>.","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$.","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c2dc0ee9785d82a35a4a341bfc11eac3","width":"1080","height":"1718"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9915517722","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863484223,"gmtCreate":1632412505962,"gmtModify":1676530777666,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586564505552956","authorIdStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>???","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$???","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08e2d6ae1c7768d7f90fe7483cfdb5b4","width":"1080","height":"2054"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/863484223","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176625416,"gmtCreate":1626881236135,"gmtModify":1703479936364,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586564505552956","authorIdStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176625416","repostId":"1112040613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112040613","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626875681,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112040613?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-21 21:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"[Focus] Emerging electric vehicle manufacturers surge, with XPeng and Li Auto rising over 7%.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112040613","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月21日，造车新势力盘中大涨，小鹏汽车、理想汽车涨超7%，蔚来涨超3%。\n阿里巴巴对小鹏汽车港股的多头头寸增至14.97%。","content":"<p>On July 21, emerging electric vehicle manufacturers surged intraday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose more than 7%, and Nio rose more than 3%.</p><p>Alibaba's long position in XPeng Motors' Hong Kong stock has increased to 14.97%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18715a730121a93d6ef7546ebd880ed\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>[Focus] Emerging electric vehicle manufacturers surge, with XPeng and Li Auto rising over 7%.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n[Focus] Emerging electric vehicle manufacturers surge, with XPeng and Li Auto rising over 7%.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 21:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On July 21, emerging electric vehicle manufacturers surged intraday.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose more than 7%, and Nio rose more than 3%.</p><p>Alibaba's long position in XPeng Motors' Hong Kong stock has increased to 14.97%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a18715a730121a93d6ef7546ebd880ed\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccf08a65163213fb22b4f94f7fb404e8","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏集团-W","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112040613","content_text":"7月21日，造车新势力盘中大涨，小鹏汽车、理想汽车涨超7%，蔚来涨超3%。\n阿里巴巴对小鹏汽车港股的多头头寸增至14.97%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838329630,"gmtCreate":1629376077220,"gmtModify":1676530020001,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586564505552956","authorIdStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/838329630","repostId":"2160783754","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2160783754","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1629350247,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2160783754?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-19 13:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Tesla's AI Day has kicked off; what is the capital market paying attention to?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2160783754","media":"金十数据","summary":"19日，特斯拉将召开AI日，展示公司在人工智能领域取得的进展。","content":"<p>America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The time is 5 PM on August 19th.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An AI Day will be held at the company's Palo Alto headquarters to showcase its capabilities in artificial intelligence.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Progress made in the field.</p><p>In its invitation, Tesla stated that<b><u>The entire event will consist of a speech by Musk, a demonstration of software and hardware by Tesla engineers, and a test drive of the Model S Plaid.</u></b>Attendees will be among the first to learn about the company's latest advancements in supercomputers and neural network training, while Tesla will also showcase the applications of AI in fields beyond automobiles.</p><p>Although AI Day is theoretically primarily an event for engineers, given the increasing influence of electric vehicles and the industry chain on the capital market...<b>Any technological breakthrough by a leading electric vehicle manufacturer could trigger unusual movements in the industry sector.</b>。 Based on media reports and insights from industry analysts, the following are projects that investors should pay close attention to this year's AI Day.</p><p><b>Demonstrating the safety of automated (assisted) driving</b></p><p>Although Tesla explicitly mentions \"applications outside of automobiles,\" there is no doubt that autonomous driving, as the company's primary application area, cannot be absent, especially given the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's announcement on Monday of a formal investigation into the technology.</p><p>Jane Edmondson, founder and CEO of EQM Indexes, said that Tesla may introduce how to improve FSD functionality through AI. Wall Street is now anxiously waiting for the leading companies developing this technology to come forward and say there are ways to improve its security. Many people are not confident in handing over control of cars to computers, but if there are more AI integrations that are better than human intelligence, you can argue that it is safe.</p><p>In addition, Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Funds, said that although Musk had vowed to achieve Level 5 autonomous driving by 2021, the public is not expected to begin to experience Level 4 autonomous driving until at least 2024.</p><p>Since Autopilot Day in 2019, Tesla announced in May that the Model 3/Y in North America would no longer use radar to implement features such as Autopilot, and would instead use camera images and neural network drive systems. Meanwhile, in July of this year, Tesla announced that in addition to spending $10,000 to purchase FSD, users could also subscribe to the service for $199 per month, and the subscription fee for vehicles already equipped with Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) is $99 per month.</p><p>Munster projects that over the next decade (2031), the FSD feature alone will generate $159 billion in revenue and $102 billion in operating profit. Renowned investor Katherine Wood once identified the large-scale application of FSD as the next catalyst for Tesla's stock price, giving target prices of $1,000 this year and $3,000 in 2025.</p><p><b>The leading electric vehicle brand has been upgraded to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Faucet?</b></p><p>At the Q1 earnings conference this year, Musk said that in the long run, people will see Tesla as a robotics company, just like car companies and energy companies are currently positioned.</p><p>The capital market is wondering when Tesla will be able to compete with Waymo.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>The launch of autonomous taxi services, similar to those offered by competitors, has been anticipated. Edmondson believes that from Tesla's perspective, providing a plan for self-driving trucks/buses is a reasonable application of existing technology.</p><p>The market is looking for clues to Tesla's explicit statement in its invitation that it will have \"applications beyond automobiles\" from Musk's numerous public statements. During the second-quarter earnings call, Musk again complained about the difficulties of manufacturing those car-making machines, saying that the company manufactures a crazy number of machines internally. This may suggest that AI technology will be applied to the field of building robots.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk twice mentioned developing \"smart and energy-efficient home products\" in 2018 and 2020, so the market shouldn't be too surprised if Musk launches an HVAC system on Thursday.</p><p><b>Will the AI Day talks focus on lithium mining?</b></p><p>At Battery Day last September, Musk mentioned that the company had acquired the rights to 10,000 acres of land in Nevada to produce “green lithium” from clay deposits using a “proprietary method.” Therefore, Musk may also update the project's progress at Thursday's event. Compared to nickel and cobalt, which are more polluting during mining, Tesla's pursuit of environmental protection relies more on the production capacity of iron and green lithium.</p><p>Meanwhile, in addition to production robots deployed in factories around the world, the help of machine learning in supply chain management may also appear at Thursday's event. Edmondson stated that AI can tell you where to find the metals needed for various productions, and it will also be a powerful supply chain management tool in the current chip shortage.</p><p><b>\"Dojo\" supercomputer unveiled & chip upgraded</b></p><p>The Dojo supercomputer is a product that Tesla has been announcing for a long time but has not yet disclosed its performance in detail. AI Day will be an excellent opportunity to showcase it. The role of this computer is to train neural networks so that autonomous driving products have similar perceptions and capabilities to human drivers.</p><p>However, based on Musk's previous remarks, Tesla clearly has plans to share the results of the \"dojo\" with other automakers, and it cannot be ruled out that the company may launch a hardware product to facilitate related progress. Earlier this year, there were rumors that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>A 5nm chip is being designed for Tesla's self-driving cars, which is related to the disassembled electronic devices shown on the invitation cover. It was on Autonomous Driving Day in 2019 that Tesla released Hardware 3.0 and its self-developed FSD chip.</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's AI Day has kicked off; what is the capital market paying attention to?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's AI Day has kicked off; what is the capital market paying attention to?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 13:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>America<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">Pacific Ocean</a>The time is 5 PM on August 19th.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>An AI Day will be held at the company's Palo Alto headquarters to showcase its capabilities in artificial intelligence.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">smart</a>Progress made in the field.</p><p>In its invitation, Tesla stated that<b><u>The entire event will consist of a speech by Musk, a demonstration of software and hardware by Tesla engineers, and a test drive of the Model S Plaid.</u></b>Attendees will be among the first to learn about the company's latest advancements in supercomputers and neural network training, while Tesla will also showcase the applications of AI in fields beyond automobiles.</p><p>Although AI Day is theoretically primarily an event for engineers, given the increasing influence of electric vehicles and the industry chain on the capital market...<b>Any technological breakthrough by a leading electric vehicle manufacturer could trigger unusual movements in the industry sector.</b>。 Based on media reports and insights from industry analysts, the following are projects that investors should pay close attention to this year's AI Day.</p><p><b>Demonstrating the safety of automated (assisted) driving</b></p><p>Although Tesla explicitly mentions \"applications outside of automobiles,\" there is no doubt that autonomous driving, as the company's primary application area, cannot be absent, especially given the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's announcement on Monday of a formal investigation into the technology.</p><p>Jane Edmondson, founder and CEO of EQM Indexes, said that Tesla may introduce how to improve FSD functionality through AI. Wall Street is now anxiously waiting for the leading companies developing this technology to come forward and say there are ways to improve its security. Many people are not confident in handing over control of cars to computers, but if there are more AI integrations that are better than human intelligence, you can argue that it is safe.</p><p>In addition, Gene Munster, managing partner of Loup Funds, said that although Musk had vowed to achieve Level 5 autonomous driving by 2021, the public is not expected to begin to experience Level 4 autonomous driving until at least 2024.</p><p>Since Autopilot Day in 2019, Tesla announced in May that the Model 3/Y in North America would no longer use radar to implement features such as Autopilot, and would instead use camera images and neural network drive systems. Meanwhile, in July of this year, Tesla announced that in addition to spending $10,000 to purchase FSD, users could also subscribe to the service for $199 per month, and the subscription fee for vehicles already equipped with Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) is $99 per month.</p><p>Munster projects that over the next decade (2031), the FSD feature alone will generate $159 billion in revenue and $102 billion in operating profit. Renowned investor Katherine Wood once identified the large-scale application of FSD as the next catalyst for Tesla's stock price, giving target prices of $1,000 this year and $3,000 in 2025.</p><p><b>The leading electric vehicle brand has been upgraded to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>Faucet?</b></p><p>At the Q1 earnings conference this year, Musk said that in the long run, people will see Tesla as a robotics company, just like car companies and energy companies are currently positioned.</p><p>The capital market is wondering when Tesla will be able to compete with Waymo.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APOL\">Apollo</a>The launch of autonomous taxi services, similar to those offered by competitors, has been anticipated. Edmondson believes that from Tesla's perspective, providing a plan for self-driving trucks/buses is a reasonable application of existing technology.</p><p>The market is looking for clues to Tesla's explicit statement in its invitation that it will have \"applications beyond automobiles\" from Musk's numerous public statements. During the second-quarter earnings call, Musk again complained about the difficulties of manufacturing those car-making machines, saying that the company manufactures a crazy number of machines internally. This may suggest that AI technology will be applied to the field of building robots.</p><p>Furthermore, Musk twice mentioned developing \"smart and energy-efficient home products\" in 2018 and 2020, so the market shouldn't be too surprised if Musk launches an HVAC system on Thursday.</p><p><b>Will the AI Day talks focus on lithium mining?</b></p><p>At Battery Day last September, Musk mentioned that the company had acquired the rights to 10,000 acres of land in Nevada to produce “green lithium” from clay deposits using a “proprietary method.” Therefore, Musk may also update the project's progress at Thursday's event. Compared to nickel and cobalt, which are more polluting during mining, Tesla's pursuit of environmental protection relies more on the production capacity of iron and green lithium.</p><p>Meanwhile, in addition to production robots deployed in factories around the world, the help of machine learning in supply chain management may also appear at Thursday's event. Edmondson stated that AI can tell you where to find the metals needed for various productions, and it will also be a powerful supply chain management tool in the current chip shortage.</p><p><b>\"Dojo\" supercomputer unveiled & chip upgraded</b></p><p>The Dojo supercomputer is a product that Tesla has been announcing for a long time but has not yet disclosed its performance in detail. AI Day will be an excellent opportunity to showcase it. The role of this computer is to train neural networks so that autonomous driving products have similar perceptions and capabilities to human drivers.</p><p>However, based on Musk's previous remarks, Tesla clearly has plans to share the results of the \"dojo\" with other automakers, and it cannot be ruled out that the company may launch a hardware product to facilitate related progress. Earlier this year, there were rumors that<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>A 5nm chip is being designed for Tesla's self-driving cars, which is related to the disassembled electronic devices shown on the invitation cover. It was on Autonomous Driving Day in 2019 that Tesla released Hardware 3.0 and its self-developed FSD chip.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=80361&type=news\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4c46d4b2afae6942831cdc849f2072","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=80361&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2160783754","content_text":"美国太平洋时间8月19日下午17点，特斯拉将在帕罗奥图总部召开AI日，展示公司在人工智能领域取得的进展。\n特斯拉在发出的邀请函中表示，整场活动将由马斯克的演讲、特斯拉工程师对软硬件的演示、Model S Plaid试驾等环节组成。与会者将成为第一批了解公司在超级计算机、神经网络训练方面的最新进展，同时特斯拉也会展现AI在汽车以外领域的应用。\n虽然AI日理论上主要是针对工程师的活动，但在电动车及产业链对资本市场影响力逐渐提升的当下，电动车龙头在技术领域的任何突破都有可能引发行业板块的异动。综合媒体报道和行业分析师见解，以下为今年AI日投资者应当密切关注的项目。\n论证自动（辅助）驾驶安全性\n虽然特斯拉明确提及“汽车以外的应用”，但毫无疑问作为公司最主要的应用领域，自动驾驶不可能缺席，特别是在本周一美国国家公路交通安全管理局宣布对这项技术展开正式调查的背景下。\nEQM Indexes创始人兼CEO Jane Edmondson表示，到时候特斯拉可能会介绍如何通过AI来提升FSD功能。现在华尔街很焦虑地在等待开发这项技术的龙头企业能够站出来说有办法提高这项技术的安全性。许多人并没有信心把汽车操控权交给电脑，但如果有更多比人类智能更好的人工智能集成，你就可以论证（这项技术）它是安全的。\n此外Loup Funds管理合伙人Gene Munster表示，虽然马斯克曾经放话在2021年实现L5级别的自动驾驶，但预期公众至少要到2024年才能开始接触L4级别的自动驾驶。\n自从2019年自动驾驶日后，特斯拉在今年五月宣布北美地区的Model 3/Y不再使用雷达实现Autopilot等功能，将转向使用摄像头画面和神经网络驱动系统。同时在今年7月特斯拉宣布用户除了花费10000美元购买FSD以外，同时能够以每月199美元订阅这项服务，已经配备增强型自动驾驶仪（EAP）的车辆订阅费用为每月99美元。\nMunster预计，未来十年（2031年）光是FSD一项功能就能实现1590亿美元的营收，营业利润达到1020亿美元。知名投资人凯瑟琳·伍德就曾把FSD规模应用作为特斯拉股价的下一个催化剂，给出年内1000美元和2025年3000美元的目标价。\n电动车龙头升级为机器人龙头？\n在今年一季报的财报发布会上，马斯克曾表示长期来看人们将会把特斯拉看作是一家机器人公司，与现在汽车公司以及能源公司的定位一样。\n资本市场对于特斯拉何时能够与Waymo/百度阿波罗等竞品一样推出自动驾驶出租车服务一直有所预期。Edmondson认为，从特斯拉的角度来说，给出自动驾驶卡车/巴士的计划是对现有技术的合理应用。\n对于特斯拉在邀请函中明确表示会有“汽车以外的应用”，市场正在从马斯克海量的公开发言中寻找蛛丝马迹。在二季度财报会上，马斯克再度抱怨了制造那些造车机器的困难，并称公司内部制造了疯狂数量的机器。这有可能在暗示AI技术会应用在建造机器人领域。\n此外，在2018年和2020年马斯克曾经两度提及开发“智能且节能的家居产品”，如果马斯克周四推出一套暖通系统（HVAC），市场不应该感到太意外。\nAI日会谈及锂矿么？\n在去年九月的电池日，马斯克曾提及公司已获得内华达州10000英亩土地的权利，可以使用“专有方法”从粘土矿床中生产“绿锂”。所以周四的活动上马斯克也有可能更新项目的进展情况，相较于开采时污染更大的镍和钴，特斯拉对于环保的追求更多需要寄托在铁和绿锂的产能。\n同时，除了遍布全球工厂的生产机器人外，机器学习对于供应链管理的帮助也有可能出现在周四的活动中。Edmondson表示，AI可以告诉你各种生产所需要的金属能从哪里找到，同时在芯片短缺的当下，它也会是强大的供应链管理工具。\n“道场”超算亮相&芯片升级\n“道场”（Dojo）超算是特斯拉公开已久但尚未详细披露性能的产品，AI日将会是绝佳的展示机会。这个计算机的作用就是训练神经网络，使得自动驾驶类产品具有与人类驾驶员类似的感知和能力。\n但基于马斯克之前的讲话，特斯拉显然有向其他车厂分享“道场”成果的计划，并不排除公司可能会推出一款硬件促进相关进展。今年年初曾经有传言称三星正在为特斯拉自动驾驶汽车设计一款5nm芯片，这正与邀请函封面上呈现的电子设备拆解图产生了关联性。正是在2019年的自动驾驶日上，特斯拉发布了Hardware 3.0和自研FSD芯片。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170541134,"gmtCreate":1626444010128,"gmtModify":1703760311021,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586564505552956","authorIdStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170541134","repostId":"1179612289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179612289","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1626443542,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179612289?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-16 21:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Snap has surged 300% since the pandemic; does it still have investment potential?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179612289","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"英为财情Investing.com – 过去一年，Snap(NYSE:SNAP)日活用户创纪录新高，书写了大流行期间最闪亮的增长故事之一。\n凭借这个势头，Snap成为了今年表现最强劲的一只社交媒体软件","content":"<p>Investing.com – Snap (NYSE:SNAP) has seen record daily active users over the past year, writing one of the brightest growth stories during the pandemic.</p><p>With this momentum, Snap has become the strongest-performing social media software stock this year, with its share price rising by more than 300% since March 2020, and Snap has successfully convinced investors that its advertising business will continue to grow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5983c6d236a618f4ff416f849cfc45a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Investors once thought Snap was doomed, but after the company redesigned Snapchat, user spending time increased, and the company successfully turned things around.</p><p>Snap has also cleverly translated traffic growth into advertising growth, increasing Snapchat's appeal to advertisers by investing in augmented reality, advertising tools, and supporting quality content creators.</p><p>In line with the above strategy, Snap launched the Spotlight short video feature last November and, to incentivize outstanding videos, spends $100 million a day to reward the creators of the most popular content. By the end of the first quarter, Spotlight's users had surged to 125 million.</p><p>During the period ended March 31, these initiatives drove the company's sales up 66% to $770 million and active users up 22% to 280 million. During the last earnings call, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said that as socio-economic activities began to open up in the first few months of this year, more and more users gained friends, and users also began to use the APP's map tools and post content such as short videos and photos.</p><p><b>Buying opportunity?</b></p><p>Even with strong growth over the past year, some analysts believe Snap's stock price will continue to rise. Although its stock price has recently fallen from its all-time high, it has created a good buying opportunity.</p><p>In a recent report, Barclays raised its price target for Snap from $66 to $75. The agency stated that as socioeconomic activity recovers and user activity accelerates, Snap's \"revenue is still in its optimal growth period, with a considerable growth rate.\"</p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Wall Street underestimated Snap's core driving forces and monetization pathways for the future. The bank gave Snap a target price of $75.</p><p>According to data from Investing.com, most analysts have given Snap a buy rating, with a 12-month consensus target price approximately 28% higher than its current level. On Thursday (July 5), Snap closed at $60.50, down 3.15% on the day.</p><p>These reports are generally bullish on Snap, indicating that analysts believe Snap will be able to drive international market expansion through augmented reality tools.</p><p>Snap expects revenue to grow by 50% or more in the coming years as more advertisers use Snap's augmented reality tools. In terms of international operations, Snap has strengthened its local content production and marketing activities, as well as supported more languages.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>During the pandemic, Snap successfully turned around by launching new features and cultivating niche markets. Even after the pandemic ends, Snap is expected to continue this momentum and become a stock worth buying and holding.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap has surged 300% since the pandemic; does it still have investment potential?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap has surged 300% since the pandemic; does it still have investment potential?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-16 21:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investing.com – Snap (NYSE:SNAP) has seen record daily active users over the past year, writing one of the brightest growth stories during the pandemic.</p><p>With this momentum, Snap has become the strongest-performing social media software stock this year, with its share price rising by more than 300% since March 2020, and Snap has successfully convinced investors that its advertising business will continue to grow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5983c6d236a618f4ff416f849cfc45a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Investors once thought Snap was doomed, but after the company redesigned Snapchat, user spending time increased, and the company successfully turned things around.</p><p>Snap has also cleverly translated traffic growth into advertising growth, increasing Snapchat's appeal to advertisers by investing in augmented reality, advertising tools, and supporting quality content creators.</p><p>In line with the above strategy, Snap launched the Spotlight short video feature last November and, to incentivize outstanding videos, spends $100 million a day to reward the creators of the most popular content. By the end of the first quarter, Spotlight's users had surged to 125 million.</p><p>During the period ended March 31, these initiatives drove the company's sales up 66% to $770 million and active users up 22% to 280 million. During the last earnings call, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel said that as socio-economic activities began to open up in the first few months of this year, more and more users gained friends, and users also began to use the APP's map tools and post content such as short videos and photos.</p><p><b>Buying opportunity?</b></p><p>Even with strong growth over the past year, some analysts believe Snap's stock price will continue to rise. Although its stock price has recently fallen from its all-time high, it has created a good buying opportunity.</p><p>In a recent report, Barclays raised its price target for Snap from $66 to $75. The agency stated that as socioeconomic activity recovers and user activity accelerates, Snap's \"revenue is still in its optimal growth period, with a considerable growth rate.\"</p><p>Morgan Stanley analysts believe that Wall Street underestimated Snap's core driving forces and monetization pathways for the future. The bank gave Snap a target price of $75.</p><p>According to data from Investing.com, most analysts have given Snap a buy rating, with a 12-month consensus target price approximately 28% higher than its current level. On Thursday (July 5), Snap closed at $60.50, down 3.15% on the day.</p><p>These reports are generally bullish on Snap, indicating that analysts believe Snap will be able to drive international market expansion through augmented reality tools.</p><p>Snap expects revenue to grow by 50% or more in the coming years as more advertisers use Snap's augmented reality tools. In terms of international operations, Snap has strengthened its local content production and marketing activities, as well as supported more languages.</p><p><b>epilogue</b></p><p>During the pandemic, Snap successfully turned around by launching new features and cultivating niche markets. Even after the pandemic ends, Snap is expected to continue this momentum and become a stock worth buying and holding.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac891715e4e45c5b453cb085f7d8c5f","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179612289","content_text":"英为财情Investing.com – 过去一年，Snap(NYSE:SNAP)日活用户创纪录新高，书写了大流行期间最闪亮的增长故事之一。\n凭借这个势头，Snap成为了今年表现最强劲的一只社交媒体软件股，自2020年3月以来，该公司股价上涨了超300%，Snap成功说服投资者相信其广告业务将持续增长。\n\n曾经，投资者一度认为Snap要完，但公司重新设计了Snapchat后，用户使用时长增加，公司成功翻盘。\nSnap还巧妙地将流量增长转化为了广告增长，通过投资增强现实、广告工具以及支持优质内容创作者，提高了Snapchat对广告商的吸引力。\n按照上述策略，Snap在去年11月推出了Spotlight短视频功能，且为激励优秀视频，每天斥资100百万美元，奖励最受欢迎的内容的创作者。截至第一季度末，Spotlight的用户激增至1.25亿。\n截至3月31日止期间，这些举措推动公司销售额增长66%至7.7亿美元，活跃用户增长22%至2.8亿。在上一次财报电话会议上，Snap首席执行官Evan Spiegel表示，随着今年前几个月社会经济活动开始开放，越来越多的用户好友数增长，用户还开始使用APP中的地图工具并发布短视频和照片等内容。\n买入机会？\n即使过去一年强劲增长，一些分析师认为Snap的股价还会上涨，近期其股价虽然从历史高点回落，但也创造了买入良机。\n巴克莱在最近发布的一份报告中将Snap的目标价从66美元上调至75美元，该机构称随着社会经济活动恢复，用户活跃度加速上升，Snap“的收入仍处于最佳增长期，增速相当可观”。\n摩根士丹利分析师认为，华尔街低估了Snap未来的核心动力和变现途径。该行给予了Snap 75美元的目标价。\n根据英为财情Investing.com数据，大多数分析师给予了Snap买入评级，12个月一致目标价比目前水平高约28%。周四(7月5日)，Snap收报60.50美元，日内下跌3.15%。\n这些报告普遍看好Snap，表明分析师相信Snap将能够通过增强现实工具推动国际市场扩张。\nSnap预计，随着越来越多的广告商使用Snap的增强现实工具，未来几年的收入可能增长50%或更高。在国际业务方面，Snap加强了本土内容生产和营销活动，以及支持了更多语言。\n结语\n在疫情期间，通过推出新功能，深耕细分市场，Snap成功翻身，即使疫情结束，Snap仍有望延续这一势头，成为值得买入和持有的股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144801150,"gmtCreate":1626273664470,"gmtModify":1703756913180,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586564505552956","authorIdStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/144801150","repostId":"1172121275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172121275","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626270119,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172121275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-14 21:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Will US inflation continue to exceed expectations?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172121275","media":"李超宏观研究与...","summary":"内容摘要\n>> 核心观点\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n6月美国CPI超预期主要受二手车驱动，预计未来对CPI拉动将回落。服务业中住房以及住房外服务分项增速均已位于或接近08年以来最高水平，进一步上行空间有","content":"<p><b>Summary of contents</b></p><p><b>>> Core Points</b></p><p><b>The better-than-expected US CPI in June was mainly driven by used cars, and the impact on CPI is expected to decline in the future. In the service sector, the growth rates of both housing and non-housing services are at or near their highest levels since 2008, with limited room for further growth. It is expected that both the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rates of the US CPI will likely decline in the second half of the year. The decline will be largely affected by the shortage of automotive chips, and the US CPI may be above 3% by the end of the year. Asset pricing indicates that the market is not pessimistic about long-term inflation, and inflation expectations remain stable. US Treasury yields were suppressed in July, with fundamentals affected by expectations of a downturn in the Chinese economy, and supply and demand falling short of demand amid the release of $400 billion in liquidity from fiscal deposits. The real yield in the United States is significantly negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. After the liquidity shift in August, improved employment will drive up the real yield.</b></p><p><b>>> US inflation in June was significantly affected by used car prices, but current used car prices are clearly showing a downward trend.</b></p><p>The US CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year in June, exceeding market consensus expectations and surpassing May's 5%. This is mainly due to the fact that, also influenced by the low base effect in the first half of the year, the CPI growth rate of 0.9% this month exceeded expectations. Looking at the main sub-categories of month-on-month growth, we believe that the core factor behind the better-than-expected CPI this month is still the rise in used car prices caused by supply and demand factors such as chip shortages: the CPI used cars and trucks sub-category rose by 10.5% month-on-month in June, contributing nearly one-third to the month-on-month growth. If the prices of truck-related services (including truck rental services, truck insurance, etc., which are highly correlated with used car prices) are included, they contribute more than 40% to the CPI month-on-month. In addition, the combined contribution of food and energy to the month-on-month CPI in commodity consumption also reached 20%.</p><p>Looking at the services sector, housing prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, a 0.2% increase compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 16% to the CPI month-on-month. Services excluding housing grew by 0.4% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month.</p><p><b>>> With used car price increases weakening and service sector prices already rising significantly, the CPI is likely to decline year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead, we expect the contribution of used car prices to the CPI to gradually decline.</b>U.S. used car prices have recently shown a downward trend. The Manheim Used Car Price Auction Index shows that the year-on-year price growth rate has fallen from a high of 54.3% in April to 36.4% in June. In addition, the month-on-month increase in truck rental prices in the CPI sub-item has declined for three consecutive months (the month-on-month increases in April, May, and June were 16.2%, 12.1%, and 5.2%, respectively). With the easing of the supply-demand gap, the impact of used car prices on the CPI is expected to gradually decline.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the services sector, the growth rate of the services sub-sector of the US CPI is already quite high, and there is limited room for further growth.</b>Looking at the month-on-month growth rate, the CPI housing sub-item grew by 0.5% month-on-month in June, which is already at the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with limited room for further upward movement. The services sub-item of the CPI excluding housing grew by 0.4% month-on-month in June, which is also at a relatively high percentile level since the 2008 financial crisis. Looking at the year, it has peaked and fallen from the 1% growth rate in April. Looking at the PMI, the US non-manufacturing PMI price index has peaked and fallen, from 80.6% in May to 79.5% in June.</p><p>Overall, we expect that it is highly likely that both the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of the US CPI will decline in the second half of the year. However, the magnitude of the decline will still be relatively large, depending on the degree to which the supply and demand gap, such as the shortage of automobile chips, is alleviated. The average CPI growth rate in the second half of the year may be above 4%, and the US CPI may still be above 3% at the end of the year.</p><p><b>>> From a supply and demand perspective, US inflation has no long-term growth momentum and will decline as the supply-demand gap closes.</b></p><p>From the demand side, starting in the second half of the year, US fiscal stimulus will gradually subside, and its exogenous driving effect on demand will weaken. In terms of capital expenditure, the US inventory replenishment is more than halfway through. In terms of the overall inventory replenishment growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of US inventories in April reached 1.32%. Compared with the -5.9% growth rate in June 2020, this round of US inventory replenishment is already halfway through. Historically, based on the average market of the past nine inventory cycles in the United States over 30 months, this inventory cycle has lasted 27 months and may end this year or early 2022. In addition, in the second half of the year, the main consumer force will continue to shift from durable goods consumption to service consumption, and its driving effect on capital expenditure and demand will gradually weaken. The gradual return of residents to work in the second half of the year will help bridge the supply-demand gap, which will effectively alleviate long-term inflationary pressures.</p><p>Judging from the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy and recent statements by officials, there is still a tendency to believe that current inflation is temporary, but its duration may exceed expectations.</p><p><b>>> Asset pricing is not pessimistic about long-term inflation; US Treasury supply shortages in July, coupled with expectations of a Chinese economic downturn, suppressed yields.</b></p><p>From an asset pricing perspective, the current market is not pessimistic about long-term inflation. Since the beginning of July, inflation expectations have remained basically flat, stabilizing in the range of 2.3%-2.4%. Following the release of inflation data on the evening of the 13th, US Treasury yields did not react significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the main factor driving the decline in interest rates since July is my country's unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut, which has triggered global concerns about the fundamentals. From a supply and demand perspective, the US Treasury Bond market faced a natural supply and demand imbalance in July. The fiscal deposit account still had $400 billion to release in July (the fiscal deposit balance exceeded $850 billion at the end of June, and $450 billion needed to be reduced by July 31). On the one hand, the Federal Reserve's $120 billion QE scale will increase the demand for debt allocation, and on the other hand, it will also suppress the supply of US Treasury bonds. Since the beginning of July, existing Treasury Bond have shown a shrinking trend. In a narrow sense (the total amount of Treasury Bond held by the public), Treasury Bond stock decreased by US$15 billion, and in a broad sense, Treasury Bond decreased by US$49.3 billion, resulting in a significant contraction on the supply side. With both the fiscal deposit account and QE expectations shifting in August (please refer to the previous report \"Fed's Attitude Gradually Turns Hawkish, Focus on Q3 Liquidity Turning Point\" for details), the supply and demand pattern is shifting, and bond yields are expected to turn upward.</p><p><b>>> Current real yields are at historical lows and mismatch fundamentals; improved employment will drive up interest rates.</b></p><p>We have pointed out many times before that there is limited room for further inflation expectations to rise, and the future upside potential for US Treasury yields will mainly come from real yields. The current 10-year real yield in the United States is -0.91%, which is the lowest real yield in U.S. history. The last low in US real yields occurred in April 2013, when they reached -0.74%. Since then, with the strengthening of Taper expectations and the improvement of fundamentals, they have been rising all the way up, taking only two months to return to the positive interest rate range in June of the same year. By comparison, the US unemployment rate (adjusted for labor force participation rate) is most closely correlated with the US real yield, rather than the actual or potential growth rate.</p><p><b>From the perspective of unemployment rate,</b>The current unemployment rate in the United States is 5.9%, and the labor force participation rate is 61.6%; In June 2013, the unemployment rate in the United States was 7.5%, and the labor force participation rate was 63.4%. If the current employment situation in the United States is converted to the labor force participation rate in June 2013, the current unemployment rate in the United States is approximately 8.6%, which is lower than in 2013. The U.S. unemployment rate needs to recover to 4.8% this year to match the real employment level in June 2013. According to the Federal Reserve's forecast, the U.S. unemployment rate will fall to 4.5% within the year.<b>In terms of non-farm payrolls,</b>Based on the relationship between the improvement in the unemployment rate since last year and the number of non-farm payrolls, the United States still needs to add nearly 3.9 million non-farm jobs to raise the unemployment rate to 4.8%. Based on this year's data, it is estimated that this level may not be reached until the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4.</p><p>In summary, we believe that the liquidity shift will alleviate the current supply-demand mismatch in Treasury Bond, real interest rates will still reflect the fundamentals, i.e., the actual employment situation, and real yields will continue to drive up US Treasury yields in Q3.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p><b>The failure of large-scale vaccine applications to effectively bridge the supply-demand gap has led to higher-than-expected inflation; The slower-than-expected progress of vaccines has led to an extension of the easing period; The chip shortage crisis exceeded expectations, leading to persistently high CPI.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ca26d04994b07ba1a692607d2af112\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809d660e9974d38951ca0b7e6237acd5\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f65e82f55a441507007a2c29d70472a\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c8c701df360ed55b75b17564e38c75\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lchgyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will US inflation continue to exceed expectations?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill US inflation continue to exceed expectations?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">李超宏观研究与...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 21:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary of contents</b></p><p><b>>> Core Points</b></p><p><b>The better-than-expected US CPI in June was mainly driven by used cars, and the impact on CPI is expected to decline in the future. In the service sector, the growth rates of both housing and non-housing services are at or near their highest levels since 2008, with limited room for further growth. It is expected that both the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rates of the US CPI will likely decline in the second half of the year. The decline will be largely affected by the shortage of automotive chips, and the US CPI may be above 3% by the end of the year. Asset pricing indicates that the market is not pessimistic about long-term inflation, and inflation expectations remain stable. US Treasury yields were suppressed in July, with fundamentals affected by expectations of a downturn in the Chinese economy, and supply and demand falling short of demand amid the release of $400 billion in liquidity from fiscal deposits. The real yield in the United States is significantly negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. After the liquidity shift in August, improved employment will drive up the real yield.</b></p><p><b>>> US inflation in June was significantly affected by used car prices, but current used car prices are clearly showing a downward trend.</b></p><p>The US CPI rose 5.4% year-on-year in June, exceeding market consensus expectations and surpassing May's 5%. This is mainly due to the fact that, also influenced by the low base effect in the first half of the year, the CPI growth rate of 0.9% this month exceeded expectations. Looking at the main sub-categories of month-on-month growth, we believe that the core factor behind the better-than-expected CPI this month is still the rise in used car prices caused by supply and demand factors such as chip shortages: the CPI used cars and trucks sub-category rose by 10.5% month-on-month in June, contributing nearly one-third to the month-on-month growth. If the prices of truck-related services (including truck rental services, truck insurance, etc., which are highly correlated with used car prices) are included, they contribute more than 40% to the CPI month-on-month. In addition, the combined contribution of food and energy to the month-on-month CPI in commodity consumption also reached 20%.</p><p>Looking at the services sector, housing prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, a 0.2% increase compared to the previous month, contributing approximately 16% to the CPI month-on-month. Services excluding housing grew by 0.4% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month.</p><p><b>>> With used car price increases weakening and service sector prices already rising significantly, the CPI is likely to decline year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in the second half of the year.</b></p><p><b>Looking ahead, we expect the contribution of used car prices to the CPI to gradually decline.</b>U.S. used car prices have recently shown a downward trend. The Manheim Used Car Price Auction Index shows that the year-on-year price growth rate has fallen from a high of 54.3% in April to 36.4% in June. In addition, the month-on-month increase in truck rental prices in the CPI sub-item has declined for three consecutive months (the month-on-month increases in April, May, and June were 16.2%, 12.1%, and 5.2%, respectively). With the easing of the supply-demand gap, the impact of used car prices on the CPI is expected to gradually decline.</p><p><b>From the perspective of the services sector, the growth rate of the services sub-sector of the US CPI is already quite high, and there is limited room for further growth.</b>Looking at the month-on-month growth rate, the CPI housing sub-item grew by 0.5% month-on-month in June, which is already at the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, with limited room for further upward movement. The services sub-item of the CPI excluding housing grew by 0.4% month-on-month in June, which is also at a relatively high percentile level since the 2008 financial crisis. Looking at the year, it has peaked and fallen from the 1% growth rate in April. Looking at the PMI, the US non-manufacturing PMI price index has peaked and fallen, from 80.6% in May to 79.5% in June.</p><p>Overall, we expect that it is highly likely that both the year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of the US CPI will decline in the second half of the year. However, the magnitude of the decline will still be relatively large, depending on the degree to which the supply and demand gap, such as the shortage of automobile chips, is alleviated. The average CPI growth rate in the second half of the year may be above 4%, and the US CPI may still be above 3% at the end of the year.</p><p><b>>> From a supply and demand perspective, US inflation has no long-term growth momentum and will decline as the supply-demand gap closes.</b></p><p>From the demand side, starting in the second half of the year, US fiscal stimulus will gradually subside, and its exogenous driving effect on demand will weaken. In terms of capital expenditure, the US inventory replenishment is more than halfway through. In terms of the overall inventory replenishment growth rate, the year-on-year growth rate of US inventories in April reached 1.32%. Compared with the -5.9% growth rate in June 2020, this round of US inventory replenishment is already halfway through. Historically, based on the average market of the past nine inventory cycles in the United States over 30 months, this inventory cycle has lasted 27 months and may end this year or early 2022. In addition, in the second half of the year, the main consumer force will continue to shift from durable goods consumption to service consumption, and its driving effect on capital expenditure and demand will gradually weaken. The gradual return of residents to work in the second half of the year will help bridge the supply-demand gap, which will effectively alleviate long-term inflationary pressures.</p><p>Judging from the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy and recent statements by officials, there is still a tendency to believe that current inflation is temporary, but its duration may exceed expectations.</p><p><b>>> Asset pricing is not pessimistic about long-term inflation; US Treasury supply shortages in July, coupled with expectations of a Chinese economic downturn, suppressed yields.</b></p><p>From an asset pricing perspective, the current market is not pessimistic about long-term inflation. Since the beginning of July, inflation expectations have remained basically flat, stabilizing in the range of 2.3%-2.4%. Following the release of inflation data on the evening of the 13th, US Treasury yields did not react significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the main factor driving the decline in interest rates since July is my country's unexpected reserve requirement ratio cut, which has triggered global concerns about the fundamentals. From a supply and demand perspective, the US Treasury Bond market faced a natural supply and demand imbalance in July. The fiscal deposit account still had $400 billion to release in July (the fiscal deposit balance exceeded $850 billion at the end of June, and $450 billion needed to be reduced by July 31). On the one hand, the Federal Reserve's $120 billion QE scale will increase the demand for debt allocation, and on the other hand, it will also suppress the supply of US Treasury bonds. Since the beginning of July, existing Treasury Bond have shown a shrinking trend. In a narrow sense (the total amount of Treasury Bond held by the public), Treasury Bond stock decreased by US$15 billion, and in a broad sense, Treasury Bond decreased by US$49.3 billion, resulting in a significant contraction on the supply side. With both the fiscal deposit account and QE expectations shifting in August (please refer to the previous report \"Fed's Attitude Gradually Turns Hawkish, Focus on Q3 Liquidity Turning Point\" for details), the supply and demand pattern is shifting, and bond yields are expected to turn upward.</p><p><b>>> Current real yields are at historical lows and mismatch fundamentals; improved employment will drive up interest rates.</b></p><p>We have pointed out many times before that there is limited room for further inflation expectations to rise, and the future upside potential for US Treasury yields will mainly come from real yields. The current 10-year real yield in the United States is -0.91%, which is the lowest real yield in U.S. history. The last low in US real yields occurred in April 2013, when they reached -0.74%. Since then, with the strengthening of Taper expectations and the improvement of fundamentals, they have been rising all the way up, taking only two months to return to the positive interest rate range in June of the same year. By comparison, the US unemployment rate (adjusted for labor force participation rate) is most closely correlated with the US real yield, rather than the actual or potential growth rate.</p><p><b>From the perspective of unemployment rate,</b>The current unemployment rate in the United States is 5.9%, and the labor force participation rate is 61.6%; In June 2013, the unemployment rate in the United States was 7.5%, and the labor force participation rate was 63.4%. If the current employment situation in the United States is converted to the labor force participation rate in June 2013, the current unemployment rate in the United States is approximately 8.6%, which is lower than in 2013. The U.S. unemployment rate needs to recover to 4.8% this year to match the real employment level in June 2013. According to the Federal Reserve's forecast, the U.S. unemployment rate will fall to 4.5% within the year.<b>In terms of non-farm payrolls,</b>Based on the relationship between the improvement in the unemployment rate since last year and the number of non-farm payrolls, the United States still needs to add nearly 3.9 million non-farm jobs to raise the unemployment rate to 4.8%. Based on this year's data, it is estimated that this level may not be reached until the end of Q3 or beginning of Q4.</p><p>In summary, we believe that the liquidity shift will alleviate the current supply-demand mismatch in Treasury Bond, real interest rates will still reflect the fundamentals, i.e., the actual employment situation, and real yields will continue to drive up US Treasury yields in Q3.</p><p><b>Risk Warning</b></p><p><b>The failure of large-scale vaccine applications to effectively bridge the supply-demand gap has led to higher-than-expected inflation; The slower-than-expected progress of vaccines has led to an extension of the easing period; The chip shortage crisis exceeded expectations, leading to persistently high CPI.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7ca26d04994b07ba1a692607d2af112\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809d660e9974d38951ca0b7e6237acd5\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f65e82f55a441507007a2c29d70472a\" tg-width=\"710\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8c8c701df360ed55b75b17564e38c75\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BUgfP6fEZZyrKN3l11_7wA\">李超宏观研究与...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/BUgfP6fEZZyrKN3l11_7wA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172121275","content_text":"内容摘要\n>> 核心观点\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n6月美国CPI超预期主要受二手车驱动，预计未来对CPI拉动将回落。服务业中住房以及住房外服务分项增速均已位于或接近08年以来最高水平，进一步上行空间有限。预计美国CPI同环比增速大概率在下半年双双回落，回落幅度受汽车缺芯影响较大，年末美国CPI可能位于3%以上。资产定价显示市场对长期通胀不悲观，通胀预期保持稳定。7月美债收益率受压制，基本面受中国经济下行预期影响，供需面在财政存款4000亿流动性释出背景下供不应求。美国实际收益率与失业率明显负相关，8月流动性转向后，就业改善将驱动实际收益率上行。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n>> 6月美国通胀受二手车价格影响较大，但当前二手车价格已明显呈回落态势\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n美国6月CPI同比增速5.4%超出市场一致性预期，超过5月的5%。主要源于同在上半年低基数效应的影响下，本月0.9%的CPI环比增速超出预期。从环比增长的主要细分项来看，我们认为本月CPI超预期的核心因素仍是缺芯等供需原因导致的二手车价格上行所引发：CPI二手车及卡车分项6月环比上行10.5%，对环比的贡献率将近1/3；如果将卡车相关的服务价格计算在内（包括卡车租车服务、卡车保险等，与二手车价格高度相关），则对CPI环比的贡献率超过40%。此外，商品消费中食品和能源项的CPI环比的合计贡献率也达到20%。\n从服务分项看，住房环比上涨0.5%，增速相较上月走阔0.2%，对CPI环比贡献率约16%；剔除住房后的服务项环比增速0.4%，与上月持平。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n>> 二手车涨幅趋弱、服务业价格涨幅已不低，CPI同环比下半年大概率将回落\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n展望未来，我们预计二手车的价格对CPI的拉动将逐渐回落。近期美国二手车价格已有回落趋势，美国Manheim二手车价格拍卖指数显示价格同比增速已从4月的54.3%高点回落至6月的36.4%；此外，CPI分项中卡车租赁价格环比涨幅已经连续三个月下降（4、5、6三月环比涨幅分别为16.2%、12.1%、5.2%），伴随供需缺口的缓解，二手车价格对CPI的拉动有望逐渐回落。\n从服务业看，当前美国CPI服务分项的增速实际已经不低，增速进一步上行空间有限。从环比增速看，CPI住房分项6月环比增速0.5%，已位于2008年金融危机以后的最高水平，进一步上行空间有限；CPI不含住房的服务分项6月环比增速达到0.4%，也位于08年金融危机后较高分位水平，从年内来看已经从4月1%的增速见顶回落。从PMI来看，美国非制造业PMI的物价指数已呈现见顶回落态势，由5月的80.6%回落至6月的79.5%。\n整体来看，我们预计美国CPI同环比增速在下半年双双回落仍是大概率事件，但回落幅度仍较大取决于汽车缺芯等供需缺口的缓解程度，下半年CPI增速均值可能位于4%以上，年末美国CPI可能仍然位于3%以上。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n>> 从供需角度来看，美国通胀并无长期增长动力将伴随供需缺口弥合而回落\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n从需求端来看，下半年起，美国财政刺激逐渐退潮，对需求的外生拉动作用将减弱。从资本开支来看，美国补库已行过半程，从整体补库增速来看，4月美国库存同比增速已达1.32%，相较2020年6月-5.9%的增速，本轮美国补库已行至半路。从历史规律来看，从美国过去9轮库存周期30个月的平均市场看，本轮库存周期已历时27个月，可能于年内或2022年初结束。此外，下半年消费主力将继续从耐用品消费向服务消费切换，对资本开支以及需求的拉动作用均将逐渐减弱。居民下半年逐渐返岗带动供需缺口弥合将有效缓解长期通胀压力。\n从联储半年度货币政策以及官员近期表态来看，仍倾向性认为当前通胀是临时性通胀，但持续时长可能超出预期。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n>> 资产定价对长期通胀不悲观，7月美债供不应求+中国经济下行预期压制收益率\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n从资产定价来看，当前市场对长期通胀并不悲观。进入7月以来，通胀预期基本持平，稳定位于2.3%-2.4%区间。13日晚通胀数据公布后，美债收益率也并未对此作出明显反应。7月以来驱动利率下行的因素，从基本面看主要是我国意外降准引发全球对基本面的担忧；从供需来看，7月美国国债市场面临天然的供需失衡格局。财政存款账户在7月仍有4000亿美元的资金需要释放（6月末财政存款余额超8500亿美元，7月31日需压制4500亿美元），一方面叠加联储1200亿美元的QE规模将提升配债需求，一方面也将压制美债供给，进入7月以来存量国债呈现萎缩态势。狭义口径（公众持有的国债总额）国债存量下降150亿美元，广义口径国债下降493亿美元，供给端大量萎缩。8月财政存款账户及QE预期双双转向后（详细请参考前期报告《联储态度逐渐转鹰，关注Q3流动性拐点》），供需格局转向债券收益率有望拐头上行。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n>> 当前实际收益率处于历史最低点与基本面不匹配，就业改善将驱动利率抬升\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n我们此前曾多次指出，通胀预期进一步抬升空间有限，未来美债收益率上行空间主要源自实际收益率。当前美国10年期实际收益率处于-0.91%，这也是美国历史上实际收益率的最低水平。上一轮美国实际收益率的低点出现于2013年4月，当时实际收益率曾触及-0.74%，此后伴随Taper预期强化以及基本面改善一路上行，仅耗时2月时间并于同年6月重回正利率区间。经比较，与美国实际收益率相关性最强的是美国失业率（经劳动参与率调整）而非实际增速或潜在增速。\n从失业率角度来看，美国当前失业率5.9%、劳动参与率为61.6%;2013年6月美国失业率为7.5%，劳动参与率为63.4%。如果将美国当前的就业状况按2013年6月的劳动参与率换算，美国当前失业率约为8.6%，就业情况不及2013年。美国年内失业率需恢复至4.8%方能匹配2013年6月的实际就业水平。根据美联储预测，美国失业率将于年内降至4.5%。从非农就业人数看，按去年至今失业率改善幅度和非农就业人数的关系来看，美国仍需新增将近390万个非农岗位方能将失业率抬升至4.8%。按照年内数据估算，可能需Q3末或Q4初方能触及这一水平。\n综上，我们认为流动性转向将缓解当前国债的供需错配程度，实际利率仍将反映基本面即就业的实际情况，实际收益率仍将在Q3驱动美债收益率上行。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n风险提示\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n疫苗大规模应用未有效弥合供需缺口导致通胀超预期；疫苗进度不及预期导致宽松周期延长；缺芯危机超预期导致CPI居高不下。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814342051,"gmtCreate":1630770584773,"gmtModify":1676530392992,"author":{"id":"3586564505552956","authorId":"3586564505552956","name":"紫凤凰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b90a783ec55e59e0e24906924bc7ca","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586564505552956","authorIdStr":"3586564505552956"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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