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2022-08-31

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17:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街“最悲观”银行：为遏制通胀，预计美联储或加息到近5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135509200","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这几乎是目前联邦基准利率的2倍，美股或暴跌20%。华尔街最悲观的银行德意志银行再发悲观预测：为抗击通胀，美联储到明年1季度或将利率提升至4.9%。德银美国首席经济学家Luzzetti表示，在过去的所有","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>这几乎是目前联邦基准利率的2倍，美股或暴跌20%。</blockquote><p>华尔街最悲观的银行德意志银行再发悲观预测：为抗击通胀，美联储到明年1季度或将利率提升至4.9%。</p><p>德银美国首席经济学家Luzzetti表示，在过去的所有紧缩周期中，无论通胀水平如何，美联储总是将联邦基金利率目标置于通胀之上<b>。要使政策具有限制性（能够控通胀），美国实际利率或通胀调整后的利率需要维持正数</b>；而通胀预期无法下修则使整个问题复杂化。考虑到目前的通胀的状况以及通胀的粘性，美联储将不得不继续升息：</p><blockquote>为了使市场有信心，美联储需要让联邦基金利率高于通货膨胀率，至少在明年初。整个持续时间不会非常长。</blockquote><p>作为华尔街最为悲观的投行之一，德银在今年4月首先喊出美国经济将陷入衰退。该行随后警告，不仅衰退是必然的，而且通胀预期可能会大幅上升，最终导致更激进的紧缩政策和更深层次的衰退，同时失业率上升幅度更大，这反过来又会演变成美联储极力避免的结果——“硬着陆”（hard landing）。</p><p>随着本周美联储FOMC会议临近，投资者热烈讨论美联储需要将利率提高到多高的水平才能控制四十年来最严重的通货膨胀。目前市场主流观点认为美联储可能在今年年底将联邦基金利率提高到4%。<b>德银接近5%的利率预测几乎是目前实际状况的2倍</b>（2.25%—2.50%）</p><p>如果德银预测成真，美股将免不了迎来新一轮的动荡。桥水对冲基金创始人达利欧上周警告称，只要利率提高到4.5％左右，美国股市就会暴跌近20％。</p><p>达利欧表示，投资者可能仍对长期通胀过于掉以轻心。目前市场预期未来十年的平均年通胀率为2.6％，远低于达利欧预测的4.5％—5％。但其警告，如果受到经济冲击，通胀数字还有可能“大幅上升”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街“最悲观”银行：为遏制通胀，预计美联储或加息到近5%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街“最悲观”银行：为遏制通胀，预计美联储或加息到近5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-09-19 17:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这几乎是目前联邦基准利率的2倍，美股或暴跌20%。华尔街最悲观的银行德意志银行再发悲观预测：为抗击通胀，美联储到明年1季度或将利率提升至4.9%。德银美国首席经济学家Luzzetti表示，在过去的所有紧缩周期中，无论通胀水平如何，美联储总是将联邦基金利率目标置于通胀之上。要使政策具有限制性（能够控通胀），美国实际利率或通胀调整后的利率需要维持正数；而通胀预期无法下修则使整个问题复杂化。考虑到目前的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135509200","content_text":"这几乎是目前联邦基准利率的2倍，美股或暴跌20%。华尔街最悲观的银行德意志银行再发悲观预测：为抗击通胀，美联储到明年1季度或将利率提升至4.9%。德银美国首席经济学家Luzzetti表示，在过去的所有紧缩周期中，无论通胀水平如何，美联储总是将联邦基金利率目标置于通胀之上。要使政策具有限制性（能够控通胀），美国实际利率或通胀调整后的利率需要维持正数；而通胀预期无法下修则使整个问题复杂化。考虑到目前的通胀的状况以及通胀的粘性，美联储将不得不继续升息：为了使市场有信心，美联储需要让联邦基金利率高于通货膨胀率，至少在明年初。整个持续时间不会非常长。作为华尔街最为悲观的投行之一，德银在今年4月首先喊出美国经济将陷入衰退。该行随后警告，不仅衰退是必然的，而且通胀预期可能会大幅上升，最终导致更激进的紧缩政策和更深层次的衰退，同时失业率上升幅度更大，这反过来又会演变成美联储极力避免的结果——“硬着陆”（hard landing）。随着本周美联储FOMC会议临近，投资者热烈讨论美联储需要将利率提高到多高的水平才能控制四十年来最严重的通货膨胀。目前市场主流观点认为美联储可能在今年年底将联邦基金利率提高到4%。德银接近5%的利率预测几乎是目前实际状况的2倍（2.25%—2.50%）如果德银预测成真，美股将免不了迎来新一轮的动荡。桥水对冲基金创始人达利欧上周警告称，只要利率提高到4.5％左右，美国股市就会暴跌近20％。达利欧表示，投资者可能仍对长期通胀过于掉以轻心。目前市场预期未来十年的平均年通胀率为2.6％，远低于达利欧预测的4.5％—5％。但其警告，如果受到经济冲击，通胀数字还有可能“大幅上升”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910166793,"gmtCreate":1663578829013,"gmtModify":1676537294493,"author":{"id":"3586900171924258","authorId":"3586900171924258","name":"grader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586900171924258","idStr":"3586900171924258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9910166793","repostId":"1194761598","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194761598","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1663575168,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1194761598?lang=&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-09-19 16:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动 | 比特币跌破19000！概念股盘前重挫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194761598","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，Marathon Digita","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272b93dd9a2ae1a407cfae9ba97a9fa5\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>跌近2%；</p><p>热门中概股盘前走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌1.74%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌1.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌1.43%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>盘前跌近10%，终止对IDT Biologika交付新冠疫苗；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>盘前跌2.5%，公司将在印尼解雇3%的Shopee员工；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two</a>盘前跌超5%，此前其尚未正式公布的《侠盗猎车手6》大量场景视频泄露，黑客寻求谈判交易；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">Phunware</a>盘前跌超3%，公司董事净卖出2万股公司股份。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动 | 比特币跌破19000！概念股盘前重挫</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动 | 比特币跌破19000！概念股盘前重挫\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-19 16:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272b93dd9a2ae1a407cfae9ba97a9fa5\" tg-width=\"386\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">Marathon Digital</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIOT\">Riot Blockchain</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTR\">MicroStrategy</a>跌超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTBT\">Bit Digital</a>跌近2%；</p><p>热门中概股盘前走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36氪</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌1.74%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>跌1.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌1.43%；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALN\">Valneva</a>盘前跌近10%，终止对IDT Biologika交付新冠疫苗；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">Sea</a>盘前跌2.5%，公司将在印尼解雇3%的Shopee员工；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTWO\">Take-Two</a>盘前跌超5%，此前其尚未正式公布的《侠盗猎车手6》大量场景视频泄露，黑客寻求谈判交易；</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PHUN\">Phunware</a>盘前跌超3%，公司董事净卖出2万股公司股份。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"BK4538":"云计算","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","BK4526":"热门中概股","MSTR":"MicroStrategy Incorporated","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","MSTR.AU":"MORNINGSTAR INTL SHARES ACT","KRKR":"36氪","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","EDU.AU":"EDU HOLDINGS LTD","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","MARA":"Marathon Digital Holdings Inc","NIO":"蔚来","EDU":"新东方","BABA":"阿里巴巴","BK4575":"芯片概念","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194761598","content_text":"9月19日，美股指期货集体走低，道指期货跌0.56%，纳指期货跌0.72%，标普500指数期货跌0.6%。比特币今日一度跌破19000美元/枚，美股区块链概念股盘前普跌，Marathon Digital跌超6%，Coinbase、Riot Blockchain跌超5%，MicroStrategy跌超3%，Bit Digital跌近2%；热门中概股盘前走低，36氪跌超6%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，蔚来跌1.74%，新东方跌1.6%，阿里巴巴跌1.43%；Valneva盘前跌近10%，终止对IDT Biologika交付新冠疫苗；Sea盘前跌2.5%，公司将在印尼解雇3%的Shopee员工；Take-Two盘前跌超5%，此前其尚未正式公布的《侠盗猎车手6》大量场景视频泄露，黑客寻求谈判交易；Phunware盘前跌超3%，公司董事净卖出2万股公司股份。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":83,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9910166009,"gmtCreate":1663578727301,"gmtModify":1676537294451,"author":{"id":"3586900171924258","authorId":"3586900171924258","name":"grader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586900171924258","idStr":"3586900171924258"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a><v-v 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