As we know, crude oil has crossed the $100 mark recently. Under this scenario, investors have to assess if this is a fundamental shift in macro dynamics or just a temporary speculative spike. Some key factors to consider include: 1) Structural supply constraints 2) Shipping channel disruptions 3) Persistent geopolitical friction While we can't predict 100% regarding short term price movement, if crude oil will continue to spike or pullback, we can still analyze the projected winners and losers under this scenario, in order to analyze and rebalance our own portfolio. The Clear Winners 1) Upstream exploration and production oil majors like ExxonMobil and Chevron are clear beneficiaries. They are able to generate substantial free cash flow and net income as oil price soars. 2
Initially, the recent global stock market pullback sent shockwaves through technology and semiconductor sectors, with big drawdowns across key chipmakers and tech indexes, including Micron Technology (MU) dropping over 41% and SanDisk Corp (SNDK) plummeting over 57%. However, upon a closer look, after the initial shock, it can be seen that sector rotation is in play. While the semiconductor index $iShares Semiconductor ETF $iShares Semiconductor ETF(SOXX)$ fell, other sectors remain resilient. This is evidently shown on the heat map upon a closer observation. The recent strong earnings and double digits moves for $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $Amazon.com(AMZ
$RIOT 20250417 9.0 PUT$ Bitcoin is still in the red for month of December. Past data shows that December is a bullish month for Bitcoin Halving year, therefore decided to take advantage of the price drop to add to my position progressively as noted position sizing and risk management are needed for volatile stocks.
$JD VERTICAL 250321 PUT 33.0/PUT 36.0$ Decided to add on to my existing position progressively while waiting for the stock price to recover as per my risk management rules.
$CELH 20250117 26.67 PUT$ Progressively taking profit for my puts positions. Still holding on to other vertical puts position and shares for this stock counter.
$DJT VERTICAL 250321 PUT 23.0/PUT 20.0$ Opening my first initial vertical puts spread position. It's a speculative trade. Willing to add more if necessary. Stock is volatile, need to exercise caution too.