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2021-07-16

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Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update

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This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</li>\n <li>Apple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.</li>\n <li>My recommendations remain unchanged.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat</b></p>\n<p>I recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7f8aedd681fd593d93dddb8cc729aac\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a91eb20e82f9598a938e67d8d3a97d4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Bloomberg screenshot</i></p>\n<p>Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.</p>\n<p>To be clear:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.</li>\n <li>This is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.</li>\n <li>Even if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>But putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.</p>\n<p><b>Five Scenarios</b></p>\n<p>Models of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.</p>\n<p>Let’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>iPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.</li>\n <li>Legal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.</li>\n <li>Wearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.</li>\n <li>Mac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.</li>\n <li>Fiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.</li>\n <li>Other assumptions are in the Excel sheets.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Scenarios:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>Large, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.</li>\n <li>Medium, my base case.</li>\n <li>Small is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.</li>\n <li>Tiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.</li>\n <li>Gurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>In Medium:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>We’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.</li>\n <li>Services growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.</li>\n <li>The rest, as above.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Large and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Boost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.</li>\n <li>Apple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.</li>\n <li>Apple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Tiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.</p>\n<p><b>Apple Stock in 2025</b></p>\n<p>This table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627cf8bb56d0111fd73bb08563552c10\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"198\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e7c93e5533b009f089b91803a1f3a2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Even with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.</p>\n<p>This chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71adf9785e904740f3eaae349f1fd8b8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.</p>\n<p>So the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.</p>\n<p>But if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94838bde5f985f7a186dc7a4bdb1cad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>So my recommendations remain:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>If your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.</li>\n <li>But if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>For more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple In 2025: DCF Model Update</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple In 2025: DCF Model Update\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 13:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4439401-apple-in-2025-dcf-model-update","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1189921948","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis is an update to my Apple revenue and DCF model published about a month ago, taking into account a recent rumor from Mark Gurman at Bloomberg.\nThe rumor is that Apple’s initial iPhone order for 2022 is up 20% from its blowout 2021. This would represent the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nApple’s share price has gotten ahead of its cash flows, and even in this rumor scenario, there is not a lot of fair value upside in the next year.\nMy recommendations remain unchanged.\n\nWe’re Gonna Need a Bigger Boat\nI recently published avery long articleon my long term Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)thesis. You can be thankful that I am not here to repeat those 7,000 words. Included in the article was a 2025 DCF model with four scenarios. Because of this chart, each scenario assumed iPhone revenue would be down from fiscal 2021’s blowout in 2022 and 2023:\n\nIn that chart, you can pretty clearly see the 3-year cycle, with 2015, 2018 and 2021 as the tentpole years. But then Apple rumor millchurned this outon Tuesday this week:\n\nBloomberg screenshot\nBloomberg’s Mark Gurman has been a pretty reliable source of Apple gossip, so we should take this as a serious possibility. I am estimating iPhone will surge 37% YoY in fiscal 2021. To bump up another 20% in 2022 would be the kind of back-to-back performance iPhone hasn’t seen since 2014-2015.\nTo be clear:\n\nThe specific rumor is that Apple has bumped up their initial order from 75 million to 90 million.\nThis is a rumor, albeit from a reliable source, and may not even be true, or be a misinterpretation of other information.\nEven if true, there can be other reasons besides increased anticipated demand for Apple wanting to increase the initial order. For example, they may need capacity or supply for something else in early calendar 2022, and they are pushing forward iPhone production to clear the decks.\n\nBut putting that aside, let’s look at what happens to the DCF and revenue models if iPhone sees a 20% YoY gain in 2022 rather than the -6% drop I was modeling into my best case scenario. The drops in the previous second years of the cycle were -12% in 2016 and -14% in 2019. A 20% increase would be a huge shift from the pattern.\nFive Scenarios\nModels of the future are generally an expression of the author’s biases with math laid over it. My number one recommendation for consumers of these sorts of things is skepticism and a thorough frisking of assumptions. The recentTesla model from ARK Investmentis a cautionary tale for everyone. There areExcel worksheetson GitHub with the model, and all the major assumptions are modifiable. Each scenario is a separate worksheet.\nLet’s first look at some assumptions common to the original four scenarios:\n\niPhone continues to exhibit a 3-year cyclical pattern. Fiscal 2021 is the high year, so 2024 is the next one.\nLegal and regulatory action trims App Store and thus Services growth a little.\nWearables, etc. remains on its strong growth path on Apple Watch, AirPods, AirTags, and at least one new product category, a VR headset in calendar 2022.\nMac and iPad return roughly to their pre-pandemic patterns. Like all PC makers, Apple saw abig surgefrom work-from-home.\nFiscal 2021 is half-reported, so all scenarios assume that it will complete along Apple’s average seasonal pattern from 2016-2019.\nOther assumptions are in the Excel sheets.\n\nScenarios:\n\nLarge, had been most optimistic case, but now we have a larger one based on this rumor.\nMedium, my base case.\nSmall is what Apple looks like if they come off the growth rates of the last 4-6 years.\nTiny is the same as Small through 2023, and then we’re going to throw some real problems at Apple.\nGurman Rumor is the same as Large, but with the new inflated iPhone projections.\n\nIn Medium:\n\nWe’ll model the iPhone cycle with the average growth rates of the 2015 and 2018 cycles.\nServices growth comes off of 2016-2020 trajectory by 2 pp because of legal or regulatory action on App Store.\nThe rest, as above.\n\nLarge and Small will, respectively, add and subtract from these growth rates in Medium. In addition, Large assumes:\n\nBoost in fiscal 2022-2025 for iPhone on 5G adoption.\nApple Silicon Macs gain Apple some PC market share.\nApple's AR glasses come out in the middle of fiscal 2025. To be clear, I view that as an unlikely timeline, but it does not have a large effect on the model since it comes 6 months from the end of our interval.\n\nTiny is a special event-based scenario where we will throw the two worst plausible scenarios we can at Apple. It starts with a huge reduction in App Store revenues due to antitrust action in the US and Europe at the end of fiscal 2023, and getting kicked out of China at the end of fiscal 2024. The former will be modeled as a sharp downturn in Services revenue in fiscal 2024. The China expulsion will lead to a 15% drop in top line revenue, and a decrease in products gross margin by 5 pp in 2025. I don’t view either of these as particularly likely, but this is the worst it can get.\nApple Stock in 2025\nThis table summarizes the results of the model scenarios:\n\nThe interesting result to me is that the Gurman scenario does not boost cash flows and fair value as much as I expected. This is an artifact of the growth of the Services and Wearables, etc. segments, now 30% of all Apple revenue:\n\nEven with iPhone’s extraordinary fiscal 2021, up 37% YoY by my estimate, iPhone was still 53% of Apple’s total net sales, down from 66% in 2015, the peak. While still the biggest thing on Apple’s tables, it is not nearly as important to consolidated Apple’s income statement as it was even 3 years ago, when it was 62% of Apple net sales.\nThis chart tracks the growth of fair value over the course of the models.\n\nThe rest of Apple has become so big that even adding $50 billion to 2022 iPhone sales going from the Large scenario to the Gurman Rumor scenario only raises free cash flow and the share price by about 8%. In the end, it represents a 3.1 pp increase in annual fair value appreciation over Large by 2025, but almost 10 pp per year over Medium, which remains my base case until we have a little more clarity on this rumor.\nSo the overall conclusion from my original article remains. Likely a lot of the gains of 2021 and 2022 are already baked into Apple’s price, especially since it is up 17% since the original article published in June. Since the beginning of fiscal 2020, Apple share price is up 140%, which has already captured a lot of the cash flow growth. Most likely fiscal 2023 is where we see it break out again.\nBut if Gurman’s rumor is correct, the breakout will come sooner, likely after they report Q4 2021 around the end of October, and give us guidance for Q1 2022. If that is much higher than expectations, that will likely represent a new leg up in share price. But Apple share price has appreciated so much already, even in the Gurman Rumor scenario that doesn’t represent a huge change in fair value over Thursday’s close:\n\nSo my recommendations remain:\n\nIf your time horizon for Apple is short, now is a good time to take profits.\nBut if your time horizon is long like mine, there is no other company with the range of long-term strengths Apple has, and a cash-flow machine which will eventually catch up to the inflated price.\n\nFor more details on those long term strengths and that cash-flow machine, see the original June article.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141951312,"gmtCreate":1625835378336,"gmtModify":1703749495037,"author":{"id":"3586930495818461","authorId":"3586930495818461","name":"chinggg74","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b61c2fcc02b1ee81ea66fdfe2b368674","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586930495818461","authorIdStr":"3586930495818461"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141951312","repostId":"1108536582","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":170838415,"gmtCreate":1626418372237,"gmtModify":1703759788641,"author":{"id":"3586930495818461","authorId":"3586930495818461","name":"chinggg74","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b61c2fcc02b1ee81ea66fdfe2b368674","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586930495818461","authorIdStr":"3586930495818461"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170838415","repostId":"1189921948","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141951312,"gmtCreate":1625835378336,"gmtModify":1703749495037,"author":{"id":"3586930495818461","authorId":"3586930495818461","name":"chinggg74","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b61c2fcc02b1ee81ea66fdfe2b368674","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586930495818461","authorIdStr":"3586930495818461"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/141951312","repostId":"1108536582","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}